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2021-11-11

Good summary of the stocks performances.

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2021-10-10

Thanks for info.

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2021-10-31

Up soon

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2021-09-07

Thanks

3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点进行投资的3条黄金法则</blockquote>

2021-09-29

Speculative share.

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2021-07-28

Hope that AMZN will split the stock.

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2021-11-22

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.

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2021-10-16

Great!

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2021-08-14

Don’t be over confident when you get vaccinated. Stay vigilant and continue to practice safety measures.

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2021-10-21

Risky game although the potential returns lookvery impressive.

Marathon Digital Stock: More Upside With A Breakout In Bitcoin<blockquote>马拉松数字股票：比特币突破带来更多上涨空间</blockquote>

2021-10-06

Roller coaster.

Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote>

2021-10-06

Roller coaster.

Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote>

2021-09-08

Waiting for the correction to add shares. 🤓

Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌15%。以下是投资者可能考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote>

2021-12-20

No Santa rally😔

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2021-12-10

Oh no. Please not again!

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2021-08-12

Looking forward to it happening.

Amazon Stock To Rise 50%: One Analyst’s Bull Case<blockquote>亚马逊股价将上涨50%：一位分析师的看涨理由</blockquote>

2021-07-27

noted

Apple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote>

2021-10-13

Will the typhoon be gone in the afternoon?

Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote>

2021-08-25

Alibaba

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2021-07-27

Thanks

Apple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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06:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、联邦快递、Lennar、金宝汤等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171271872","media":"Barrons","summary":"The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.Earnings reports this week are few, but will include Campbell Soup on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian Automotive, and Adobe on Thursday; and","content":"<p>The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s&nbsp;last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.</p><p><blockquote>本周投资者的主要事件将是美联储利率制定委员会2021年的最后一次会议。官员们最近的评论更加鹰派，可能会宣布加速每月资产购买缩减的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会为期两天的会议将于周二和周三举行。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings reports this week are few, but will include&nbsp;Campbell Soup&nbsp;on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian&nbsp;Automotive, and&nbsp;Adobe&nbsp;on Thursday; and&nbsp;Darden Restaurants&nbsp;on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的财报很少，但周二将包括金宝汤；Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Rivian汽车和Adobe周四；周五还有达顿餐厅。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括美国劳工统计局周二公布的11月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预计整体指数环比上涨0.55%，核心PPI上涨0.4%。这两者都与10月份的生产者通胀速度大致相当。</blockquote></p><p> Other data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment&nbsp;index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>其他发布的数据包括周二全国独立企业联合会的信心指数、周三人口普查局公布的11月零售支出以及周四公布的11月新屋开工数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/13</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/13</b></blockquote></p><p> J.Jill&nbsp;and&nbsp;PHX Minerals&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>J.Jill和PHX Minerals在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/14</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/14</b></blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup, Barnes Group, and&nbsp;Avaya Holdings&nbsp;host investor days.</p><p><blockquote>金宝汤、巴恩斯集团和Avaya Holdings举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布11月份生产者价格指数。市场普遍预计环比上涨0.55%，不包括食品和能源的核心PPI将上涨0.4%。相比之下，10月份的增幅分别为0.6%和0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国联合会</b>独立企业报告了11月份的指数，该指数调查了全国约5,000名小企业主。预期看涨期权为98.3，而10月份为98.2。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/15</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/15</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market Committee</b> concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场委员会</b>结束了为期两天的会议，届时政策制定者将讨论加快缩减月度证券购买的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b> export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工统计局报告</b>11月进出口价格数据。预计出口价格环比上涨0.5%，而进口价格预计上涨0.5%。相比之下，10月份的涨幅分别为1.5%和1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房屋建筑商协会发布了12月份NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。普遍估计读数为84，而11月份的读数为83。该指数去年年底达到90的峰值，房屋建筑商仍然看好房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>11月份零售支出报告。预计经季节调整后零售额环比增长0.7%，而10月份为增长1.7%。不包括汽车在内，支出预计将增长0.8%，而上一时期为1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/16</b></blockquote></p><p> Heico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Heico、Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Jabil、Adobe、Rivian汽车和Nordson等公司在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>releases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份新的住宅建设报告。季调后成屋开工年率料为156.3万套，10月为152万套。当房屋开始挖掘时，房屋开工被计算在内。新房建设许可证预计为165.5万份，而10月份为165.3万份。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bank of England</b> announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>英格兰银行</b>宣布利率决定并公布会议记录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布11月份工业生产数据。继10月份增长1.6%后，经济学家预计增长0.6%。产能利用率预计为76.8，与10月份的76.4%大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/17</b></blockquote></p><p> Steelcase,Darden Restaurants, and&nbsp;Quanex Building Products&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Steelcase、Darden Restaurants和Quanex Building Products在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、联邦快递、Lennar、金宝汤等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、联邦快递、Lennar、金宝汤等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 06:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s&nbsp;last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.</p><p><blockquote>本周投资者的主要事件将是美联储利率制定委员会2021年的最后一次会议。官员们最近的评论更加鹰派，可能会宣布加速每月资产购买缩减的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会为期两天的会议将于周二和周三举行。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings reports this week are few, but will include&nbsp;Campbell Soup&nbsp;on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian&nbsp;Automotive, and&nbsp;Adobe&nbsp;on Thursday; and&nbsp;Darden Restaurants&nbsp;on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的财报很少，但周二将包括金宝汤；Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Rivian汽车和Adobe周四；周五还有达顿餐厅。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括美国劳工统计局周二公布的11月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预计整体指数环比上涨0.55%，核心PPI上涨0.4%。这两者都与10月份的生产者通胀速度大致相当。</blockquote></p><p> Other data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment&nbsp;index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>其他发布的数据包括周二全国独立企业联合会的信心指数、周三人口普查局公布的11月零售支出以及周四公布的11月新屋开工数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/13</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/13</b></blockquote></p><p> J.Jill&nbsp;and&nbsp;PHX Minerals&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>J.Jill和PHX Minerals在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/14</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/14</b></blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup, Barnes Group, and&nbsp;Avaya Holdings&nbsp;host investor days.</p><p><blockquote>金宝汤、巴恩斯集团和Avaya Holdings举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布11月份生产者价格指数。市场普遍预计环比上涨0.55%，不包括食品和能源的核心PPI将上涨0.4%。相比之下，10月份的增幅分别为0.6%和0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国联合会</b>独立企业报告了11月份的指数，该指数调查了全国约5,000名小企业主。预期看涨期权为98.3，而10月份为98.2。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/15</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/15</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market Committee</b> concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场委员会</b>结束了为期两天的会议，届时政策制定者将讨论加快缩减月度证券购买的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b> export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工统计局报告</b>11月进出口价格数据。预计出口价格环比上涨0.5%，而进口价格预计上涨0.5%。相比之下，10月份的涨幅分别为1.5%和1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房屋建筑商协会发布了12月份NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。普遍估计读数为84，而11月份的读数为83。该指数去年年底达到90的峰值，房屋建筑商仍然看好房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>11月份零售支出报告。预计经季节调整后零售额环比增长0.7%，而10月份为增长1.7%。不包括汽车在内，支出预计将增长0.8%，而上一时期为1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/16</b></blockquote></p><p> Heico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Heico、Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Jabil、Adobe、Rivian汽车和Nordson等公司在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>releases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份新的住宅建设报告。季调后成屋开工年率料为156.3万套，10月为152万套。当房屋开始挖掘时，房屋开工被计算在内。新房建设许可证预计为165.5万份，而10月份为165.3万份。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bank of England</b> announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>英格兰银行</b>宣布利率决定并公布会议记录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布11月份工业生产数据。继10月份增长1.6%后，经济学家预计增长0.6%。产能利用率预计为76.8，与10月份的76.4%大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/17</b></blockquote></p><p> Steelcase,Darden Restaurants, and&nbsp;Quanex Building Products&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Steelcase、Darden Restaurants和Quanex Building Products在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-fedex-rivian-lennar-campbell-adobe-51639330550?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SCS":"Steelcase Inc.","LEN":"莱纳建筑公司","ACN":"埃森哲",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DRI":"达登饭店",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","FDX":"联邦快递","HEI":"海科航空","PHX":"潘汉德尔油气","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","JILL":"J.Jill Inc.","ADBE":"Adobe","CPB":"金宝汤"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-fedex-rivian-lennar-campbell-adobe-51639330550?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171271872","content_text":"The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.\nEarnings reports this week are few, but will include Campbell Soup on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian Automotive, and Adobe on Thursday; and Darden Restaurants on Friday.\nEconomic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.\nOther data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.\nMonday 12/13\nJ.Jill and PHX Minerals host earnings conference calls.\nTuesday 12/14\nCampbell Soup, Barnes Group, and Avaya Holdings host investor days.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.\nThe National Federation of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.\nWednesday 12/15\nThe Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.\nThe BLS reports export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.\nThe National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.\nThe Census Bureau reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.\nThursday 12/16\nHeico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.\nThe Census Bureaureleases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.\nThe Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.\nThe Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.\nFriday 12/17\nSteelcase,Darden Restaurants, and Quanex Building Products host earnings conference calls.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SCS":0.9,"ACN":0.9,"JILL":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"AVYA":0.9,"ADBE":0.9,"FDX":0.9,"HEI":0.9,"LEN":0.9,"PHX":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"CPB":0.9,"DRI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605919352,"gmtCreate":1639100678551,"gmtModify":1639100884349,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no. Please not again!","listText":"Oh no. Please not again!","text":"Oh no. Please not again!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605919352","repostId":"2190964556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872775078,"gmtCreate":1637582438394,"gmtModify":1637582438471,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.","listText":"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.","text":"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872775078","repostId":"2185826772","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870155720,"gmtCreate":1636595344382,"gmtModify":1636595344382,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good summary of the stocks performances.","listText":"Good summary of the stocks performances.","text":"Good summary of the stocks performances.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870155720","repostId":"2182213053","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846222941,"gmtCreate":1636088218879,"gmtModify":1636088763593,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cannot understand.","listText":"Cannot understand.","text":"Cannot understand.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846222941","repostId":"2180989791","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1901,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840216647,"gmtCreate":1635649009082,"gmtModify":1635649009175,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up soon","listText":"Up soon","text":"Up soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840216647","repostId":"1104228860","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":851617734,"gmtCreate":1634902905829,"gmtModify":1634902905978,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👌🏼","listText":"👌🏼","text":"👌🏼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851617734","repostId":"2177023499","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2177023499","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1634893855,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2177023499?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-22 17:10","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Earnings Scheduled For October 22, 2021<blockquote>预计2021年10月22日收益</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2177023499","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Companies Reporting Before The Bell\n• Simply Good Foods (NASDAQ:SMPL) is likely to report quarterly ","content":"<p><h3>Companies Reporting Before The Bell</h3> • Simply Good Foods (NASDAQ:SMPL) is likely to report quarterly earnings at $0.25 per share on revenue of $255.42 million.</p><p><blockquote><h3>公司在盘前发布报告</h3>•Simply Good Foods（纳斯达克股票代码：SMPL）可能公布季度收益为每股0.25美元，营收为2.5542亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Gentex(GNTX) (NASDAQ:GNTX) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.38 per share on revenue of $437.09 million.</p><p><blockquote>•Gentex(GNTX)（纳斯达克股票代码：GNTX）预计季度收益为每股0.38美元，营收为4.3709亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Altra Industrial Motion(AIMC) (NASDAQ:AIMC) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.81 per share on revenue of $470.98 million.</p><p><blockquote>•Altra Industrial Motion(AIMC)（纳斯达克：AIMC）预计季度收益为每股0.81美元，营收为4.7098亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Schlumberger(SLB) (NYSE:SLB) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.30 per share on revenue of $5.11 billion.</p><p><blockquote>•斯伦贝谢（SLB）（纽约证券交易所代码：SLB）预计将公布季度收益为每股0.30美元，营收为51.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • HCA Healthcare(HCSG) (NYSE:HCA) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $4.00 per share on revenue of $14.43 billion.</p><p><blockquote>•HCA Healthcare(HCSG)（纽约证券交易所代码：HCA）预计季度收益为每股4.00美元，营收为144.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $2.26 per share on revenue of $5.64 billion.</p><p><blockquote>•Cleveland-Cliffs(NYSE：CLF)预计季度收益为每股2.26美元，营收为56.4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Autoliv(ALV) (NYSE:ALV) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.86 per share on revenue of $1.92 billion.</p><p><blockquote>•奥托立夫（ALV）（纽约证券交易所代码：ALV）预计季度收益为每股0.86美元，营收为19.2亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • American Express(AXP)(NYSE:AXP) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $1.80 per share on revenue of $10.52 billion.</p><p><blockquote>•美国运通（AXP）（纽约证券交易所代码：AXP）预计将公布季度收益为每股1.80美元，营收为105.2亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Honeywell(HON)&nbsp;International (NASDAQ:HON) is estimated to report earnings for its third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>•Honeywell(HON)International（纳斯达克：HON）预计将公布第三季度收益。</blockquote></p><p> • Blonder Tongue (AMEX:BDR) is likely to report earnings for its third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>•Blonder Tongue(AMEX：BDR)可能会公布第三季度财报。</blockquote></p><p> • First Hawaiian(FHB)(NASDAQ:FHB) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.48 per share on revenue of $182.40 million.</p><p><blockquote>•第一夏威夷航空(FHB)（纳斯达克股票代码：FHB）预计将公布季度收益为每股0.48美元，营收为1.824亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Blue Foundry (NASDAQ:BLFY) is estimated to report earnings for its third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>•Blue Foundry（纳斯达克股票代码：BLFY）预计将公布第三季度收益。</blockquote></p><p> • Regions(RF)&nbsp;Financial (NYSE:RF) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.52 per share on revenue of $1.56 billion.</p><p><blockquote>•Regions(RF)Financial(NYSE：RF)预计季度收益为每股0.52美元，营收为15.6亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Daseke (NASDAQ:DSKE) is likely to report quarterly earnings at $0.32 per share on revenue of $423.28 million.</p><p><blockquote>•Daseke（纳斯达克股票代码：DSKE）可能公布季度收益为每股0.32美元，营收为4.2328亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Roper(ROP) Technologies (NYSE:ROP) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $3.83 per share on revenue of $1.61 billion.</p><p><blockquote>•Roper(ROP)Technologies(NYSE：ROP)预计将公布季度收益为每股3.83美元，营收为16.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • VF (NYSE:VFC) is likely to report quarterly earnings at $1.15 per share on revenue of $3.50 billion.</p><p><blockquote>•VF（纽约证券交易所代码：VFC）可能公布季度收益为每股1.15美元，营收为35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Seagate Tech Hldgs (NASDAQ:STX) is estimated to report earnings for its first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>希捷科技控股公司（纳斯达克股票代码：STX）预计将公布第一季度财报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Earnings Scheduled For October 22, 2021<blockquote>预计2021年10月22日收益</blockquote></title>\n<style 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEarnings Scheduled For October 22, 2021<blockquote>预计2021年10月22日收益</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-22 17:10</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><h3>Companies Reporting Before The Bell</h3> • Simply Good Foods (NASDAQ:SMPL) is likely to report quarterly earnings at $0.25 per share on revenue of $255.42 million.</p><p><blockquote><h3>公司在盘前发布报告</h3>•Simply Good Foods（纳斯达克股票代码：SMPL）可能公布季度收益为每股0.25美元，营收为2.5542亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Gentex(GNTX) (NASDAQ:GNTX) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.38 per share on revenue of $437.09 million.</p><p><blockquote>•Gentex(GNTX)（纳斯达克股票代码：GNTX）预计季度收益为每股0.38美元，营收为4.3709亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Altra Industrial Motion(AIMC) (NASDAQ:AIMC) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.81 per share on revenue of $470.98 million.</p><p><blockquote>•Altra Industrial Motion(AIMC)（纳斯达克：AIMC）预计季度收益为每股0.81美元，营收为4.7098亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Schlumberger(SLB) (NYSE:SLB) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.30 per share on revenue of $5.11 billion.</p><p><blockquote>•斯伦贝谢（SLB）（纽约证券交易所代码：SLB）预计将公布季度收益为每股0.30美元，营收为51.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • HCA Healthcare(HCSG) (NYSE:HCA) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $4.00 per share on revenue of $14.43 billion.</p><p><blockquote>•HCA Healthcare(HCSG)（纽约证券交易所代码：HCA）预计季度收益为每股4.00美元，营收为144.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $2.26 per share on revenue of $5.64 billion.</p><p><blockquote>•Cleveland-Cliffs(NYSE：CLF)预计季度收益为每股2.26美元，营收为56.4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Autoliv(ALV) (NYSE:ALV) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.86 per share on revenue of $1.92 billion.</p><p><blockquote>•奥托立夫（ALV）（纽约证券交易所代码：ALV）预计季度收益为每股0.86美元，营收为19.2亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • American Express(AXP)(NYSE:AXP) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $1.80 per share on revenue of $10.52 billion.</p><p><blockquote>•美国运通（AXP）（纽约证券交易所代码：AXP）预计将公布季度收益为每股1.80美元，营收为105.2亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Honeywell(HON)&nbsp;International (NASDAQ:HON) is estimated to report earnings for its third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>•Honeywell(HON)International（纳斯达克：HON）预计将公布第三季度收益。</blockquote></p><p> • Blonder Tongue (AMEX:BDR) is likely to report earnings for its third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>•Blonder Tongue(AMEX：BDR)可能会公布第三季度财报。</blockquote></p><p> • First Hawaiian(FHB)(NASDAQ:FHB) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.48 per share on revenue of $182.40 million.</p><p><blockquote>•第一夏威夷航空(FHB)（纳斯达克股票代码：FHB）预计将公布季度收益为每股0.48美元，营收为1.824亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Blue Foundry (NASDAQ:BLFY) is estimated to report earnings for its third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>•Blue Foundry（纳斯达克股票代码：BLFY）预计将公布第三季度收益。</blockquote></p><p> • Regions(RF)&nbsp;Financial (NYSE:RF) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.52 per share on revenue of $1.56 billion.</p><p><blockquote>•Regions(RF)Financial(NYSE：RF)预计季度收益为每股0.52美元，营收为15.6亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Daseke (NASDAQ:DSKE) is likely to report quarterly earnings at $0.32 per share on revenue of $423.28 million.</p><p><blockquote>•Daseke（纳斯达克股票代码：DSKE）可能公布季度收益为每股0.32美元，营收为4.2328亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Roper(ROP) Technologies (NYSE:ROP) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $3.83 per share on revenue of $1.61 billion.</p><p><blockquote>•Roper(ROP)Technologies(NYSE：ROP)预计将公布季度收益为每股3.83美元，营收为16.1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • VF (NYSE:VFC) is likely to report quarterly earnings at $1.15 per share on revenue of $3.50 billion.</p><p><blockquote>•VF（纽约证券交易所代码：VFC）可能公布季度收益为每股1.15美元，营收为35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> • Seagate Tech Hldgs (NASDAQ:STX) is estimated to report earnings for its first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>希捷科技控股公司（纳斯达克股票代码：STX）预计将公布第一季度财报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AXP":"美国运通"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2177023499","content_text":"Companies Reporting Before The Bell\n• Simply Good Foods (NASDAQ:SMPL) is likely to report quarterly earnings at $0.25 per share on revenue of $255.42 million.\n• Gentex(GNTX) (NASDAQ:GNTX) is estimated to report quarterly earnings at $0.38 per share on revenue of $437.09 million.\n• Altra Industrial Motion(AIMC) (NASDAQ:AIMC) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.81 per share on revenue of $470.98 million.\n• Schlumberger(SLB) (NYSE:SLB) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.30 per share on revenue of $5.11 billion.\n• HCA Healthcare(HCSG) (NYSE:HCA) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $4.00 per share on revenue of $14.43 billion.\n• Cleveland-Cliffs (NYSE:CLF) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $2.26 per share on revenue of $5.64 billion.\n• Autoliv(ALV) (NYSE:ALV) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.86 per share on revenue of $1.92 billion.\n• American Express(AXP)(NYSE:AXP) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $1.80 per share on revenue of $10.52 billion.\n• Honeywell(HON) International (NASDAQ:HON) is estimated to report earnings for its third quarter.\n• Blonder Tongue (AMEX:BDR) is likely to report earnings for its third quarter.\n• First Hawaiian(FHB)(NASDAQ:FHB) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $0.48 per share on revenue of $182.40 million.\n• Blue Foundry (NASDAQ:BLFY) is estimated to report earnings for its third quarter.\n• Regions(RF) Financial (NYSE:RF) is projected to report quarterly earnings at $0.52 per share on revenue of $1.56 billion.\n• Daseke (NASDAQ:DSKE) is likely to report quarterly earnings at $0.32 per share on revenue of $423.28 million.\n• Roper(ROP) Technologies (NYSE:ROP) is expected to report quarterly earnings at $3.83 per share on revenue of $1.61 billion.\n• VF (NYSE:VFC) is likely to report quarterly earnings at $1.15 per share on revenue of $3.50 billion.\n• Seagate Tech Hldgs (NASDAQ:STX) is estimated to report earnings for its first quarter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AXP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":851617075,"gmtCreate":1634902779479,"gmtModify":1634902779644,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting&nbsp;","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/851617075","repostId":"2177549081","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853689181,"gmtCreate":1634800403686,"gmtModify":1634800403834,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Risky game although the potential returns lookvery impressive.","listText":"Risky game although the potential returns lookvery impressive.","text":"Risky game although the potential returns lookvery impressive.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853689181","repostId":"1114856613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114856613","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634799659,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114856613?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-21 15:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Marathon Digital Stock: More Upside With A Breakout In Bitcoin<blockquote>马拉松数字股票：比特币突破带来更多上涨空间</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114856613","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMarathon Digital Holdings is benefiting from the strong momentum in bitcoin approaching an ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Marathon Digital Holdings is benefiting from the strong momentum in bitcoin approaching an all-time high.</li>  <li>The company has reported strong bitcoin mining production growth which is expected to accelerate as it increases capacity.</li>  <li>We are bullish on the stock which we believe can continue to outperform the price of bitcoin.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7bf6e4e906ea0634d29e16cfcb23d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>24K-Production/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Marathon Digital Holdings受益于比特币接近历史新高的强劲势头。</li><li>该公司报告称，比特币矿业产量增长强劲，预计随着产能的增加，产量将加速增长。</li><li>我们看好该股，我们相信该股的表现可以继续跑赢比特币的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>24K-Production/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(NASDAQ:MARA)&nbsp;has achieved juggernaut status as the leading Bitcoin mining stock benefiting from the ongoing crypto bull market. Shares are up over 360% this year and there is a strong case for more upside. The key is to put aside any outdated misconceptions about the industry and recognize that the company is generating massive revenue growth with earnings set to ramp up. Indeed, with the price of Bitcoin climbing back above $60k, MARA's own all-time high of $58 set back in early April is again within reach. In many ways, the outlook for Bitcoin mining and the broader crypto space has never been more positive. We are bullish on MARA expect shares to continue outperforming through 2022, gaining momentum as it captures a higher valuation premium.</p><p><blockquote>Marathon Digital Holdings Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：MARA）受益于持续的加密货币牛市，已成为比特币领先的矿业股。今年股价上涨了360%以上，并且有充分的理由进一步上涨。关键是抛开对该行业任何过时的误解，并认识到该公司正在产生巨大的收入增长，盈利将会增加。事实上，随着比特币的价格回升至6万美元以上，MARA在4月初创下的58美元的历史高点再次触手可及。在许多方面，比特币挖矿和更广泛的加密领域的前景从未如此乐观。我们看好MARA，预计其股价将在2022年继续跑赢大盘，并随着其获得更高的估值溢价而获得动力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae131d9493e92d6449acd5fe4aae4a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>MARA Strong Bitcoin Mining Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>MARA比特币矿业增长强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> The company provided a production update in early October with the headline of mining 1,252.4 Bitcoins in Q3, nearly double the 664.3 total mined in Q2. While the price of Bitcoin averaged around $42k in the quarter, the current market price of $60k implies a quarterly revenue run rate of $75 million that is expected to accelerate going forward as the company continues to expand its capacity. Marathon now holds 7,035 Bitcoin on its balance sheet with a value of over $422 million in addition to a separate cash position of $33 million.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在10月初提供了生产更新，标题是第三季度开采了1,252.4个比特币，几乎是第二季度开采总量664.3个的两倍。虽然比特币本季度的平均价格约为4.2万美元，但目前6万美元的市场价格意味着季度收入运行率为7500万美元，随着公司继续扩大产能，预计未来将加速增长。Marathon目前在其资产负债表上持有7,035份比特币，价值超过4.22亿美元，此外还有3300万美元的单独现金头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6280bcec6f8519e422b36b50f1ad702\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a reported 29,960 mining machines at the end of September and 2.7 EH/s in hash rate, the plan is to deploy a total of 133,000 miners by mid-2022 meaning the company's mining capacity will be 5x larger than its current level. Management noted some recent logistical issues have impacted shipping times to the company's facility in Hardin, Montana but reaffirmed its schedule of installations through next year.</p><p><blockquote>根据9月底报告的29,960台矿机和2.7 EH/s的哈希率，该计划是到2022年中期部署总共133,000名矿工，这意味着该公司的采矿能力将是目前水平的5倍。管理层指出，最近的一些物流问题影响了该公司位于蒙大拿州哈丁工厂的运输时间，但重申了明年的安装计划。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dda9d658a8671363d36682b39de88f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Assuming the entire fleet of miners was fully deployed right now, it is estimated Marathon would control around 8.4% of the global Bitcoin network based on the current network difficulty of around 158 EH/s compared to the current 2% as per the chart above. At 8.4%, Marathon could theoretically be mining close to 2,275 Bitcoins per month representing a market value of $137 million or $1.6 billion as an annualized run rate. These are the types of figures that help justify the company's current market cap near $5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>假设整个矿工机队现在已完全部署，根据当前约158 EH/s的网络难度，预计Marathon将控制全球比特币网络约8.4%的份额，而根据上图，目前为2%。理论上，Marathon每月可以开采近2,275个比特币，市值为1.37亿美元，年化运行率为16亿美元。这些数字有助于证明该公司目前近50亿美元的市值是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a148065410a5daa0467a904f95e710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> According to consensus estimates, the market is forecasting MARA 2021 revenue to reach $225 million along with positive EPS of $0.94 this year. Again, the real optimism is for next year as capacity and production ramps ups through the second half of 2022 with an estimate for revenue to approach $790 million and EPS of $4.16. Even considering the breathtaking rally in shares of MARA this year, we believe the current valuation metrics including a 1-year forward price to sales multiple of 6.2x and 12x P/E ratio on the 2022 consensus EPS are attractive. The reality is that there are few stocks in any sector generating this type of growth with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>根据普遍预测，市场预测MARA 2021年收入将达到2.25亿美元，今年每股收益为0.94美元。同样，真正乐观的是明年，随着2022年下半年产能和产量的增加，预计收入将接近7.9亿美元，每股收益将达到4.16美元。即使考虑到今年MARA股价的惊人上涨，我们也认为当前的估值指标（包括2022年共识每股收益的6.2倍和12倍市盈率）具有吸引力。现实情况是，任何行业中都很少有股票能够产生这种类型的增长，并且对比特币前景乐观。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6ee8bb568d2b57f5f9bee2201acb45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bullish on Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>看好比特币</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Compared to the \"crypto winter\" during the summer months when the price of Bitcoin briefly traded under $30k in what was a painful 50% correction, the sentiment has decisively turned positive. Our sense is that many of the long-term drivers for Bitcoin including the growing recognition at the institutional level of cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class along with ongoing adoption for payments continue to represent fundamental tailwinds that can drive the price of Bitcoin higher.</p><p><blockquote>与夏季的“加密货币冬天”相比，当时比特币的价格短暂低于3万美元，痛苦地回调了50%，市场情绪已经决定性地转向积极。我们的感觉是，比特币的许多长期驱动因素，包括机构层面对加密货币作为替代资产类别的日益认可以及支付的持续采用，继续代表着可能推高比特币价格的基本推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b24b52a2b30b155f858d4c78704db52c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a technical standpoint, the selloff likely helped to consolidate the multi-year gains in Bitcoin following a particularly strong 2020 which now establishes a stronger base of support for the next leg higher. While Bitcoin is still a few percentage points below its April all-time high of $65k, there are some good reasons to believe a breakout is on tap.</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度来看，抛售可能有助于巩固比特币在经历了特别强劲的2020年之后的多年涨幅，现在为下一轮上涨奠定了更强大的支撑基础。尽管比特币仍比4月份6.5万美元的历史高点低几个百分点，但有一些充分的理由相信即将突破。</blockquote></p><p> First, reports are that a&nbsp;Bitcoin ETF&nbsp;linked to traded Bitcoin futures is set to begin trading this week through the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF(NYSEARCA:BITO). The expectation is for many other Bitcoin exchange-traded products to be approved still this year which can be interpreted as an apparent stamp of approval by regulators that cryptocurrencies are here to stay. The potential that the new instruments funnel more capital into the space can directly drive the price of Bitcoin further.</p><p><blockquote>首先，有报道称，与比特币期货交易挂钩的比特币ETF将于本周通过ProShares比特币策略ETF（NYSEARCA：BITO）开始交易。预计许多其他比特币交易所交易产品今年仍将获得批准，这可以被解释为监管机构明显批准加密货币将继续存在。新工具将更多资本注入该领域的潜力可能会直接进一步推高比特币的价格。</blockquote></p><p> We have a year-ahead price target of $100,000 for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) which is about 60% higher than the current level. Our base case is that even with some expected volatility and pullbacks on profit-taking, the trend higher can be accelerated through Q4 with a repeat of the action from 2020. While the run in Bitcoin likely had some doubters in Q1 this year, its ability to brush aside the headwinds between concerns over environmental impacts and global regulation only helps reinforce the long-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>我们对比特币(BTC-USD)的未来一年目标价为100,000美元，比当前水平高出约60%。我们的基本情况是，即使存在一些预期的波动和获利回吐，随着2020年的重复，第四季度的上涨趋势也可能会加速。尽管比特币今年第一季度的表现可能引起了一些怀疑，但它能够抛开对环境影响的担忧和全球监管之间的阻力，只会有助于增强长期前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba484e07c8f9f005525cba220d0c34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>finviz.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>finviz.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The fund manager ARK Invest has published research suggesting a growing allocation by institutional investors towards Bitcoin could impact the price between $200,000 and $500,000 long term. The group believes just a 1% allocation towards Bitcoin by all groups of institutional investors would incrementally add $100,000 to the price of Bitcoin. We expect the wider availability of Bitcoin and crypto investment products to gradually become a staple of diversified portfolios for all investors. In the near term, in our view, the $100k price level will eventually act as a magnet for traders to target through momentum based on the psychological importance of the round number.</p><p><blockquote>基金管理公司ARK Invest发表的研究表明，机构投资者对比特币的配置不断增加，可能会长期影响20万至50万美元的价格。该组织认为，所有机构投资者团体仅向比特币分配1%的资金，比特币的价格就会增加10万美元。我们预计比特币和加密货币投资产品的更广泛使用将逐渐成为所有投资者多元化投资组合的主要内容。在我们看来，短期内，10万美元的价格水平最终将成为交易者根据整数的心理重要性通过动量来瞄准的磁铁。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9f6776e72cad8d908f9b9c270810e92\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: Ark Invest</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：方舟投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>MARA Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>MARA股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> As it relates to MARA, the higher the price of Bitcoin directly translates into higher revenue and earnings potential. We expect Bitcoin miners to outperform the crypto price to the upside based on the concept of operating leverage. Simply put, higher revenues can correspond to an even higher impact to operating income and earnings. Marathon's advantage is both its current scale with a leg up on other miners attempting to secure production capacity through next year. The company's low cost of electricity with an estimated production cost of $5,612 per Bitcoin highlights the profitability potential. MARA's efforts at sustainability with a plan to be 100% carbon neutral by the end of 2022 is a benchmark for the entire industry.</p><p><blockquote>就MARA而言，比特币的价格越高，直接转化为更高的收入和盈利潜力。基于运营杠杆的概念，我们预计比特币矿商的表现将优于加密货币价格。简而言之，更高的收入可能会对营业收入和收益产生更大的影响。马拉松的优势在于其目前的规模和其他试图确保明年产能的矿商的优势。该公司的电力成本较低，估计每比特币的生产成本为5,612美元，凸显了盈利潜力。MARA在可持续发展方面的努力是整个行业的标杆，计划到2022年底实现100%碳中和。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f2a439d461073969566bfb6372e5a1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To forecast how many Bitcoins and revenue MARA will be generating by this time next year, we need to consider not only the price of Bitcoin but also the Bitcoin network difficulty. It's understood that as more mining machines go online, the network hash rate will climb and thereby dilute each existing miners' share of the Bitcoin mining potential. Over the course of a year, 52,560 Bitcoin blocks are awarded by the network with each block representing 6.25 BTC. The 328,500 newly minted Bitcoin mined over the course of a year is the market potential MARA is attempting to capture.</p><p><blockquote>要预测明年这个时候MARA将产生多少比特币和收入，我们不仅需要考虑比特币的价格，还需要考虑比特币网络的难度。据了解，随着更多矿机上线，网络哈希率将攀升，从而稀释每个现有矿工在比特币挖矿潜力中的份额。在一年的时间里，该网络授予了52,560个比特币区块，每个区块代表6.25 BTC。一年内新开采的328,500辆比特币是MARA试图抓住的市场潜力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We mentioned the company's guidance for 13.3 EH/s represents about 8.4% of the current global hash rate. In reality, by the time the full fleet of mining machines is deployed, it's likely the network difficulty will be above 200 EH/s meaning the 8.4% share will be reduced down towards 6.7% or lower. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to how this rate will progress although the general consensus is that the network difficultly will trend higher. From the chart below, we can observe a large drop in the global hash rate in mid-2021 which coincided with Chinese miners going offline as mining was banned in the country. The other dynamic at play is that some of the oldest mining machines online currently go past their lifecycle and need to be replaced generating a regular turnover.</p><p><blockquote>我们提到该公司13.3 EH/s的指导约占当前全球哈希率的8.4%。事实上，当所有矿机部署完毕时，网络难度可能会超过200 EH/s，这意味着8.4%的份额将降至6.7%或更低。尽管普遍的共识是网络很难走高，但这一速度将如何发展还存在很大的不确定性。从下图中，我们可以观察到2021年年中全球哈希率大幅下降，恰逢中国矿商因该国禁止采矿而下线。另一个因素是，一些最古老的在线矿机目前已经过了生命周期，需要更换，以产生定期的营业额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22dda2e73253a8137117a0f57124b926\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We are extrapolating how much Marathon's revenue run rate could be by the second half of next year when it fully deploys all announced mining machine purchases. For example, with a hash rate capacity of 13.3 EH/s by mid-2022, assuming a network difficultly level of 215 EH/s at that point, MARA would control 6.2% of the global hash rate and be able to mine approximately 1,693 Bitcoins in a single month. At the current market price of $60k, the monthly revenue would approach $102 million which is annualized to $1.219 billion. By this measure, we can state that shares of MARA are trading at a forward price to sales multiple of 4.3x based on its expected annualized revenue run rate by next year against the current market cap for the stock at $5.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我们正在推断，到明年下半年，当马拉松全面部署所有已宣布的矿机采购时，其收入运行率可能会达到多少。例如，到2022年年中，哈希速率容量为13.3 EH/s，假设网络难度水平为215 EH/s，MARA将控制全球哈希速率的6.2%，并能够在一个月内挖掘大约1,693个比特币。以目前6万美元的市场价格计算，月收入将接近1.02亿美元，年化收入为12.19亿美元。通过这一衡量标准，我们可以说，根据明年的预期年化收入运行率，MARA股票的远期市销率为4.3倍，而该股目前的市值为52亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a91df4ee0c4ed3b80e6e4733b6247d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: author estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In our view, MARA is undervalued at its current level in the context of the Bitcoin pricing environment and growth outlook. A forward P/S multiple closer to 5x would better reflect an appropriate growth premium and the company's positive outlook in our opinion. By this measure, at a constant BTC price of $60k and an outlook for the hash rate to trend towards 215 EH/s, we believe MARA should be valued closer to $61.50 as a near-term price target.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，在比特币定价环境和增长前景的背景下，MARA目前的估值被低估。我们认为，接近5倍的远期市盈率将更好地反映适当的增长溢价和公司的积极前景。按照这一标准，在BTC价格保持在6万美元的情况下，哈希率有望达到215 EH/s，我们认为MARA的近期目标价应接近61.50美元。</blockquote></p><p> Going a step further, with an outlook for Bitcoin to potentially reach $100k by next year, we see shares of MARA trending towards $100. From the table above, the Bitcoin market price of $100k at a 215 EH/s hash rate for next year implies MARA is currently trading at a forward P/S of 2.6x. The stock would need to climb at least 92% from the current level to maintain the valuation parity of 5x based on our model.</p><p><blockquote>更进一步，预计比特币明年可能达到10万美元，我们认为MARA的股价将趋向100美元。从上表来看，明年比特币市场价格为10万美元，哈希率为215 EH/s，这意味着MARA目前的远期市盈率为2.6倍。根据我们的模型，该股需要从当前水平上涨至少92%才能维持5倍的估值平价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Big Picture</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大图</b></blockquote></p><p> The Bitcoin mining industry continues to mature with more and more investors beginning to recognize the intrinsic value the leading stocks are generating. Marathon Digital as a U.S.-based leader remains one of the most exciting companies in the segment in the middle of a transformative year. We are encouraged by the recent operating and financial results and expect the company to continue executing successfully. We rate shares of MARA as a buy with a bullish price target of $100 per share in a scenario where Bitcoin trends towards $100k.</p><p><blockquote>随着越来越多的投资者开始认识到龙头股所产生的内在价值，比特币采矿业不断成熟。Marathon Digital作为美国的领导者，在变革的一年中仍然是该领域最令人兴奋的公司之一。我们对最近的运营和财务业绩感到鼓舞，并预计公司将继续成功执行。在比特币股价趋于10万美元的情况下，我们将MARA股票评级为买入，看涨目标价为每股100美元。</blockquote></p><p> Longer-term, the company's scale and growing balance sheet Bitcoin position will offer it more flexibility to expand into related crypto services while adding to its mining capacity. For the upcoming quarters, the Q3 earnings report will provide an opportunity to take a look at the cost structure as production accelerates. Monitoring points include the monthly updates while it will be important for the company to remain on schedule with the mining machines deliveries and deployments.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，该公司的规模和不断增长的资产负债表比特币地位将为其提供更大的灵活性，以扩展到相关的加密服务，同时增加其采矿能力。对于未来几个季度，第三季度收益报告将提供一个机会来了解随着生产加速的成本结构。监控点包括每月更新，而公司保持采矿机交付和部署的进度非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> It goes without saying that the main risk here continues to be the price of Bitcoin. While we are bullish, shares are of MARA will be highly sensitive to the cryptocurrency market price. A selloff in BTC under $50k would likely drive some renewed bearish sentiment and higher volatility. The regulatory landscape also remains uncertain. Efforts by some U.S. states to limit Bitcoin mining along with environmental impact concerns can generate headlines that pressure the segment lower. For 2022, we believe the market will begin to look more closely at earnings and cash flows beyond the high-level themes and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>不言而喻，这里的主要风险仍然是比特币的价格。虽然我们看好，但MARA的股票将对加密货币市场价格高度敏感。BTC跌破5万美元可能会引发新的看跌情绪和更高的波动性。监管格局也仍然不确定。美国一些州限制比特币采矿的努力以及对环境影响的担忧可能会成为头条新闻，给该行业带来下行压力。对于2022年，我们认为市场将开始更密切地关注高层主题和势头之外的盈利和现金流。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Marathon Digital Stock: More Upside With A Breakout In Bitcoin<blockquote>马拉松数字股票：比特币突破带来更多上涨空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarathon Digital Stock: More Upside With A Breakout In Bitcoin<blockquote>马拉松数字股票：比特币突破带来更多上涨空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-21 15:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Marathon Digital Holdings is benefiting from the strong momentum in bitcoin approaching an all-time high.</li>  <li>The company has reported strong bitcoin mining production growth which is expected to accelerate as it increases capacity.</li>  <li>We are bullish on the stock which we believe can continue to outperform the price of bitcoin.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7bf6e4e906ea0634d29e16cfcb23d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>24K-Production/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Marathon Digital Holdings受益于比特币接近历史新高的强劲势头。</li><li>该公司报告称，比特币矿业产量增长强劲，预计随着产能的增加，产量将加速增长。</li><li>我们看好该股，我们相信该股的表现可以继续跑赢比特币的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>24K-Production/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(NASDAQ:MARA)&nbsp;has achieved juggernaut status as the leading Bitcoin mining stock benefiting from the ongoing crypto bull market. Shares are up over 360% this year and there is a strong case for more upside. The key is to put aside any outdated misconceptions about the industry and recognize that the company is generating massive revenue growth with earnings set to ramp up. Indeed, with the price of Bitcoin climbing back above $60k, MARA's own all-time high of $58 set back in early April is again within reach. In many ways, the outlook for Bitcoin mining and the broader crypto space has never been more positive. We are bullish on MARA expect shares to continue outperforming through 2022, gaining momentum as it captures a higher valuation premium.</p><p><blockquote>Marathon Digital Holdings Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：MARA）受益于持续的加密货币牛市，已成为比特币领先的矿业股。今年股价上涨了360%以上，并且有充分的理由进一步上涨。关键是抛开对该行业任何过时的误解，并认识到该公司正在产生巨大的收入增长，盈利将会增加。事实上，随着比特币的价格回升至6万美元以上，MARA在4月初创下的58美元的历史高点再次触手可及。在许多方面，比特币挖矿和更广泛的加密领域的前景从未如此乐观。我们看好MARA，预计其股价将在2022年继续跑赢大盘，并随着其获得更高的估值溢价而获得动力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae131d9493e92d6449acd5fe4aae4a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>MARA Strong Bitcoin Mining Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>MARA比特币矿业增长强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> The company provided a production update in early October with the headline of mining 1,252.4 Bitcoins in Q3, nearly double the 664.3 total mined in Q2. While the price of Bitcoin averaged around $42k in the quarter, the current market price of $60k implies a quarterly revenue run rate of $75 million that is expected to accelerate going forward as the company continues to expand its capacity. Marathon now holds 7,035 Bitcoin on its balance sheet with a value of over $422 million in addition to a separate cash position of $33 million.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在10月初提供了生产更新，标题是第三季度开采了1,252.4个比特币，几乎是第二季度开采总量664.3个的两倍。虽然比特币本季度的平均价格约为4.2万美元，但目前6万美元的市场价格意味着季度收入运行率为7500万美元，随着公司继续扩大产能，预计未来将加速增长。Marathon目前在其资产负债表上持有7,035份比特币，价值超过4.22亿美元，此外还有3300万美元的单独现金头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6280bcec6f8519e422b36b50f1ad702\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a reported 29,960 mining machines at the end of September and 2.7 EH/s in hash rate, the plan is to deploy a total of 133,000 miners by mid-2022 meaning the company's mining capacity will be 5x larger than its current level. Management noted some recent logistical issues have impacted shipping times to the company's facility in Hardin, Montana but reaffirmed its schedule of installations through next year.</p><p><blockquote>根据9月底报告的29,960台矿机和2.7 EH/s的哈希率，该计划是到2022年中期部署总共133,000名矿工，这意味着该公司的采矿能力将是目前水平的5倍。管理层指出，最近的一些物流问题影响了该公司位于蒙大拿州哈丁工厂的运输时间，但重申了明年的安装计划。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dda9d658a8671363d36682b39de88f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Assuming the entire fleet of miners was fully deployed right now, it is estimated Marathon would control around 8.4% of the global Bitcoin network based on the current network difficulty of around 158 EH/s compared to the current 2% as per the chart above. At 8.4%, Marathon could theoretically be mining close to 2,275 Bitcoins per month representing a market value of $137 million or $1.6 billion as an annualized run rate. These are the types of figures that help justify the company's current market cap near $5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>假设整个矿工机队现在已完全部署，根据当前约158 EH/s的网络难度，预计Marathon将控制全球比特币网络约8.4%的份额，而根据上图，目前为2%。理论上，Marathon每月可以开采近2,275个比特币，市值为1.37亿美元，年化运行率为16亿美元。这些数字有助于证明该公司目前近50亿美元的市值是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a148065410a5daa0467a904f95e710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> According to consensus estimates, the market is forecasting MARA 2021 revenue to reach $225 million along with positive EPS of $0.94 this year. Again, the real optimism is for next year as capacity and production ramps ups through the second half of 2022 with an estimate for revenue to approach $790 million and EPS of $4.16. Even considering the breathtaking rally in shares of MARA this year, we believe the current valuation metrics including a 1-year forward price to sales multiple of 6.2x and 12x P/E ratio on the 2022 consensus EPS are attractive. The reality is that there are few stocks in any sector generating this type of growth with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>根据普遍预测，市场预测MARA 2021年收入将达到2.25亿美元，今年每股收益为0.94美元。同样，真正乐观的是明年，随着2022年下半年产能和产量的增加，预计收入将接近7.9亿美元，每股收益将达到4.16美元。即使考虑到今年MARA股价的惊人上涨，我们也认为当前的估值指标（包括2022年共识每股收益的6.2倍和12倍市盈率）具有吸引力。现实情况是，任何行业中都很少有股票能够产生这种类型的增长，并且对比特币前景乐观。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6ee8bb568d2b57f5f9bee2201acb45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bullish on Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>看好比特币</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Compared to the \"crypto winter\" during the summer months when the price of Bitcoin briefly traded under $30k in what was a painful 50% correction, the sentiment has decisively turned positive. Our sense is that many of the long-term drivers for Bitcoin including the growing recognition at the institutional level of cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class along with ongoing adoption for payments continue to represent fundamental tailwinds that can drive the price of Bitcoin higher.</p><p><blockquote>与夏季的“加密货币冬天”相比，当时比特币的价格短暂低于3万美元，痛苦地回调了50%，市场情绪已经决定性地转向积极。我们的感觉是，比特币的许多长期驱动因素，包括机构层面对加密货币作为替代资产类别的日益认可以及支付的持续采用，继续代表着可能推高比特币价格的基本推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b24b52a2b30b155f858d4c78704db52c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a technical standpoint, the selloff likely helped to consolidate the multi-year gains in Bitcoin following a particularly strong 2020 which now establishes a stronger base of support for the next leg higher. While Bitcoin is still a few percentage points below its April all-time high of $65k, there are some good reasons to believe a breakout is on tap.</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度来看，抛售可能有助于巩固比特币在经历了特别强劲的2020年之后的多年涨幅，现在为下一轮上涨奠定了更强大的支撑基础。尽管比特币仍比4月份6.5万美元的历史高点低几个百分点，但有一些充分的理由相信即将突破。</blockquote></p><p> First, reports are that a&nbsp;Bitcoin ETF&nbsp;linked to traded Bitcoin futures is set to begin trading this week through the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF(NYSEARCA:BITO). The expectation is for many other Bitcoin exchange-traded products to be approved still this year which can be interpreted as an apparent stamp of approval by regulators that cryptocurrencies are here to stay. The potential that the new instruments funnel more capital into the space can directly drive the price of Bitcoin further.</p><p><blockquote>首先，有报道称，与比特币期货交易挂钩的比特币ETF将于本周通过ProShares比特币策略ETF（NYSEARCA：BITO）开始交易。预计许多其他比特币交易所交易产品今年仍将获得批准，这可以被解释为监管机构明显批准加密货币将继续存在。新工具将更多资本注入该领域的潜力可能会直接进一步推高比特币的价格。</blockquote></p><p> We have a year-ahead price target of $100,000 for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) which is about 60% higher than the current level. Our base case is that even with some expected volatility and pullbacks on profit-taking, the trend higher can be accelerated through Q4 with a repeat of the action from 2020. While the run in Bitcoin likely had some doubters in Q1 this year, its ability to brush aside the headwinds between concerns over environmental impacts and global regulation only helps reinforce the long-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>我们对比特币(BTC-USD)的未来一年目标价为100,000美元，比当前水平高出约60%。我们的基本情况是，即使存在一些预期的波动和获利回吐，随着2020年的重复，第四季度的上涨趋势也可能会加速。尽管比特币今年第一季度的表现可能引起了一些怀疑，但它能够抛开对环境影响的担忧和全球监管之间的阻力，只会有助于增强长期前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba484e07c8f9f005525cba220d0c34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>finviz.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>finviz.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The fund manager ARK Invest has published research suggesting a growing allocation by institutional investors towards Bitcoin could impact the price between $200,000 and $500,000 long term. The group believes just a 1% allocation towards Bitcoin by all groups of institutional investors would incrementally add $100,000 to the price of Bitcoin. We expect the wider availability of Bitcoin and crypto investment products to gradually become a staple of diversified portfolios for all investors. In the near term, in our view, the $100k price level will eventually act as a magnet for traders to target through momentum based on the psychological importance of the round number.</p><p><blockquote>基金管理公司ARK Invest发表的研究表明，机构投资者对比特币的配置不断增加，可能会长期影响20万至50万美元的价格。该组织认为，所有机构投资者团体仅向比特币分配1%的资金，比特币的价格就会增加10万美元。我们预计比特币和加密货币投资产品的更广泛使用将逐渐成为所有投资者多元化投资组合的主要内容。在我们看来，短期内，10万美元的价格水平最终将成为交易者根据整数的心理重要性通过动量来瞄准的磁铁。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9f6776e72cad8d908f9b9c270810e92\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: Ark Invest</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：方舟投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>MARA Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>MARA股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> As it relates to MARA, the higher the price of Bitcoin directly translates into higher revenue and earnings potential. We expect Bitcoin miners to outperform the crypto price to the upside based on the concept of operating leverage. Simply put, higher revenues can correspond to an even higher impact to operating income and earnings. Marathon's advantage is both its current scale with a leg up on other miners attempting to secure production capacity through next year. The company's low cost of electricity with an estimated production cost of $5,612 per Bitcoin highlights the profitability potential. MARA's efforts at sustainability with a plan to be 100% carbon neutral by the end of 2022 is a benchmark for the entire industry.</p><p><blockquote>就MARA而言，比特币的价格越高，直接转化为更高的收入和盈利潜力。基于运营杠杆的概念，我们预计比特币矿商的表现将优于加密货币价格。简而言之，更高的收入可能会对营业收入和收益产生更大的影响。马拉松的优势在于其目前的规模和其他试图确保明年产能的矿商的优势。该公司的电力成本较低，估计每比特币的生产成本为5,612美元，凸显了盈利潜力。MARA在可持续发展方面的努力是整个行业的标杆，计划到2022年底实现100%碳中和。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f2a439d461073969566bfb6372e5a1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To forecast how many Bitcoins and revenue MARA will be generating by this time next year, we need to consider not only the price of Bitcoin but also the Bitcoin network difficulty. It's understood that as more mining machines go online, the network hash rate will climb and thereby dilute each existing miners' share of the Bitcoin mining potential. Over the course of a year, 52,560 Bitcoin blocks are awarded by the network with each block representing 6.25 BTC. The 328,500 newly minted Bitcoin mined over the course of a year is the market potential MARA is attempting to capture.</p><p><blockquote>要预测明年这个时候MARA将产生多少比特币和收入，我们不仅需要考虑比特币的价格，还需要考虑比特币网络的难度。据了解，随着更多矿机上线，网络哈希率将攀升，从而稀释每个现有矿工在比特币挖矿潜力中的份额。在一年的时间里，该网络授予了52,560个比特币区块，每个区块代表6.25 BTC。一年内新开采的328,500辆比特币是MARA试图抓住的市场潜力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We mentioned the company's guidance for 13.3 EH/s represents about 8.4% of the current global hash rate. In reality, by the time the full fleet of mining machines is deployed, it's likely the network difficulty will be above 200 EH/s meaning the 8.4% share will be reduced down towards 6.7% or lower. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to how this rate will progress although the general consensus is that the network difficultly will trend higher. From the chart below, we can observe a large drop in the global hash rate in mid-2021 which coincided with Chinese miners going offline as mining was banned in the country. The other dynamic at play is that some of the oldest mining machines online currently go past their lifecycle and need to be replaced generating a regular turnover.</p><p><blockquote>我们提到该公司13.3 EH/s的指导约占当前全球哈希率的8.4%。事实上，当所有矿机部署完毕时，网络难度可能会超过200 EH/s，这意味着8.4%的份额将降至6.7%或更低。尽管普遍的共识是网络很难走高，但这一速度将如何发展还存在很大的不确定性。从下图中，我们可以观察到2021年年中全球哈希率大幅下降，恰逢中国矿商因该国禁止采矿而下线。另一个因素是，一些最古老的在线矿机目前已经过了生命周期，需要更换，以产生定期的营业额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22dda2e73253a8137117a0f57124b926\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We are extrapolating how much Marathon's revenue run rate could be by the second half of next year when it fully deploys all announced mining machine purchases. For example, with a hash rate capacity of 13.3 EH/s by mid-2022, assuming a network difficultly level of 215 EH/s at that point, MARA would control 6.2% of the global hash rate and be able to mine approximately 1,693 Bitcoins in a single month. At the current market price of $60k, the monthly revenue would approach $102 million which is annualized to $1.219 billion. By this measure, we can state that shares of MARA are trading at a forward price to sales multiple of 4.3x based on its expected annualized revenue run rate by next year against the current market cap for the stock at $5.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我们正在推断，到明年下半年，当马拉松全面部署所有已宣布的矿机采购时，其收入运行率可能会达到多少。例如，到2022年年中，哈希速率容量为13.3 EH/s，假设网络难度水平为215 EH/s，MARA将控制全球哈希速率的6.2%，并能够在一个月内挖掘大约1,693个比特币。以目前6万美元的市场价格计算，月收入将接近1.02亿美元，年化收入为12.19亿美元。通过这一衡量标准，我们可以说，根据明年的预期年化收入运行率，MARA股票的远期市销率为4.3倍，而该股目前的市值为52亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a91df4ee0c4ed3b80e6e4733b6247d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: author estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In our view, MARA is undervalued at its current level in the context of the Bitcoin pricing environment and growth outlook. A forward P/S multiple closer to 5x would better reflect an appropriate growth premium and the company's positive outlook in our opinion. By this measure, at a constant BTC price of $60k and an outlook for the hash rate to trend towards 215 EH/s, we believe MARA should be valued closer to $61.50 as a near-term price target.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，在比特币定价环境和增长前景的背景下，MARA目前的估值被低估。我们认为，接近5倍的远期市盈率将更好地反映适当的增长溢价和公司的积极前景。按照这一标准，在BTC价格保持在6万美元的情况下，哈希率有望达到215 EH/s，我们认为MARA的近期目标价应接近61.50美元。</blockquote></p><p> Going a step further, with an outlook for Bitcoin to potentially reach $100k by next year, we see shares of MARA trending towards $100. From the table above, the Bitcoin market price of $100k at a 215 EH/s hash rate for next year implies MARA is currently trading at a forward P/S of 2.6x. The stock would need to climb at least 92% from the current level to maintain the valuation parity of 5x based on our model.</p><p><blockquote>更进一步，预计比特币明年可能达到10万美元，我们认为MARA的股价将趋向100美元。从上表来看，明年比特币市场价格为10万美元，哈希率为215 EH/s，这意味着MARA目前的远期市盈率为2.6倍。根据我们的模型，该股需要从当前水平上涨至少92%才能维持5倍的估值平价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Big Picture</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大图</b></blockquote></p><p> The Bitcoin mining industry continues to mature with more and more investors beginning to recognize the intrinsic value the leading stocks are generating. Marathon Digital as a U.S.-based leader remains one of the most exciting companies in the segment in the middle of a transformative year. We are encouraged by the recent operating and financial results and expect the company to continue executing successfully. We rate shares of MARA as a buy with a bullish price target of $100 per share in a scenario where Bitcoin trends towards $100k.</p><p><blockquote>随着越来越多的投资者开始认识到龙头股所产生的内在价值，比特币采矿业不断成熟。Marathon Digital作为美国的领导者，在变革的一年中仍然是该领域最令人兴奋的公司之一。我们对最近的运营和财务业绩感到鼓舞，并预计公司将继续成功执行。在比特币股价趋于10万美元的情况下，我们将MARA股票评级为买入，看涨目标价为每股100美元。</blockquote></p><p> Longer-term, the company's scale and growing balance sheet Bitcoin position will offer it more flexibility to expand into related crypto services while adding to its mining capacity. For the upcoming quarters, the Q3 earnings report will provide an opportunity to take a look at the cost structure as production accelerates. Monitoring points include the monthly updates while it will be important for the company to remain on schedule with the mining machines deliveries and deployments.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，该公司的规模和不断增长的资产负债表比特币地位将为其提供更大的灵活性，以扩展到相关的加密服务，同时增加其采矿能力。对于未来几个季度，第三季度收益报告将提供一个机会来了解随着生产加速的成本结构。监控点包括每月更新，而公司保持采矿机交付和部署的进度非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> It goes without saying that the main risk here continues to be the price of Bitcoin. While we are bullish, shares are of MARA will be highly sensitive to the cryptocurrency market price. A selloff in BTC under $50k would likely drive some renewed bearish sentiment and higher volatility. The regulatory landscape also remains uncertain. Efforts by some U.S. states to limit Bitcoin mining along with environmental impact concerns can generate headlines that pressure the segment lower. For 2022, we believe the market will begin to look more closely at earnings and cash flows beyond the high-level themes and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>不言而喻，这里的主要风险仍然是比特币的价格。虽然我们看好，但MARA的股票将对加密货币市场价格高度敏感。BTC跌破5万美元可能会引发新的看跌情绪和更高的波动性。监管格局也仍然不确定。美国一些州限制比特币采矿的努力以及对环境影响的担忧可能会成为头条新闻，给该行业带来下行压力。对于2022年，我们认为市场将开始更密切地关注高层主题和势头之外的盈利和现金流。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460632-marathon-digital-more-upside-with-breakout-in-bitcoin\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3cdd0b2f46028be0fdb985c3d97141c","relate_stocks":{"MARA":"MARA Holdings"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460632-marathon-digital-more-upside-with-breakout-in-bitcoin","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114856613","content_text":"Summary\n\nMarathon Digital Holdings is benefiting from the strong momentum in bitcoin approaching an all-time high.\nThe company has reported strong bitcoin mining production growth which is expected to accelerate as it increases capacity.\nWe are bullish on the stock which we believe can continue to outperform the price of bitcoin.\n\n24K-Production/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nMarathon Digital Holdings Inc(NASDAQ:MARA) has achieved juggernaut status as the leading Bitcoin mining stock benefiting from the ongoing crypto bull market. Shares are up over 360% this year and there is a strong case for more upside. The key is to put aside any outdated misconceptions about the industry and recognize that the company is generating massive revenue growth with earnings set to ramp up. Indeed, with the price of Bitcoin climbing back above $60k, MARA's own all-time high of $58 set back in early April is again within reach. In many ways, the outlook for Bitcoin mining and the broader crypto space has never been more positive. We are bullish on MARA expect shares to continue outperforming through 2022, gaining momentum as it captures a higher valuation premium.\nSeeking Alpha\nMARA Strong Bitcoin Mining Growth\nThe company provided a production update in early October with the headline of mining 1,252.4 Bitcoins in Q3, nearly double the 664.3 total mined in Q2. While the price of Bitcoin averaged around $42k in the quarter, the current market price of $60k implies a quarterly revenue run rate of $75 million that is expected to accelerate going forward as the company continues to expand its capacity. Marathon now holds 7,035 Bitcoin on its balance sheet with a value of over $422 million in addition to a separate cash position of $33 million.\nsource: company IR\nFrom a reported 29,960 mining machines at the end of September and 2.7 EH/s in hash rate, the plan is to deploy a total of 133,000 miners by mid-2022 meaning the company's mining capacity will be 5x larger than its current level. Management noted some recent logistical issues have impacted shipping times to the company's facility in Hardin, Montana but reaffirmed its schedule of installations through next year.\nsource: company IR\nAssuming the entire fleet of miners was fully deployed right now, it is estimated Marathon would control around 8.4% of the global Bitcoin network based on the current network difficulty of around 158 EH/s compared to the current 2% as per the chart above. At 8.4%, Marathon could theoretically be mining close to 2,275 Bitcoins per month representing a market value of $137 million or $1.6 billion as an annualized run rate. These are the types of figures that help justify the company's current market cap near $5 billion.\nsource: company IR\nAccording to consensus estimates, the market is forecasting MARA 2021 revenue to reach $225 million along with positive EPS of $0.94 this year. Again, the real optimism is for next year as capacity and production ramps ups through the second half of 2022 with an estimate for revenue to approach $790 million and EPS of $4.16. Even considering the breathtaking rally in shares of MARA this year, we believe the current valuation metrics including a 1-year forward price to sales multiple of 6.2x and 12x P/E ratio on the 2022 consensus EPS are attractive. The reality is that there are few stocks in any sector generating this type of growth with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.\nSeeking Alpha\nBullish on Bitcoin\nCompared to the \"crypto winter\" during the summer months when the price of Bitcoin briefly traded under $30k in what was a painful 50% correction, the sentiment has decisively turned positive. Our sense is that many of the long-term drivers for Bitcoin including the growing recognition at the institutional level of cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class along with ongoing adoption for payments continue to represent fundamental tailwinds that can drive the price of Bitcoin higher.\nsource: company IR\nFrom a technical standpoint, the selloff likely helped to consolidate the multi-year gains in Bitcoin following a particularly strong 2020 which now establishes a stronger base of support for the next leg higher. While Bitcoin is still a few percentage points below its April all-time high of $65k, there are some good reasons to believe a breakout is on tap.\nFirst, reports are that a Bitcoin ETF linked to traded Bitcoin futures is set to begin trading this week through the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF(NYSEARCA:BITO). The expectation is for many other Bitcoin exchange-traded products to be approved still this year which can be interpreted as an apparent stamp of approval by regulators that cryptocurrencies are here to stay. The potential that the new instruments funnel more capital into the space can directly drive the price of Bitcoin further.\nWe have a year-ahead price target of $100,000 for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) which is about 60% higher than the current level. Our base case is that even with some expected volatility and pullbacks on profit-taking, the trend higher can be accelerated through Q4 with a repeat of the action from 2020. While the run in Bitcoin likely had some doubters in Q1 this year, its ability to brush aside the headwinds between concerns over environmental impacts and global regulation only helps reinforce the long-term outlook.\nfinviz.com\nThe fund manager ARK Invest has published research suggesting a growing allocation by institutional investors towards Bitcoin could impact the price between $200,000 and $500,000 long term. The group believes just a 1% allocation towards Bitcoin by all groups of institutional investors would incrementally add $100,000 to the price of Bitcoin. We expect the wider availability of Bitcoin and crypto investment products to gradually become a staple of diversified portfolios for all investors. In the near term, in our view, the $100k price level will eventually act as a magnet for traders to target through momentum based on the psychological importance of the round number.\nsource: Ark Invest\nMARA Stock Forecast\nAs it relates to MARA, the higher the price of Bitcoin directly translates into higher revenue and earnings potential. We expect Bitcoin miners to outperform the crypto price to the upside based on the concept of operating leverage. Simply put, higher revenues can correspond to an even higher impact to operating income and earnings. Marathon's advantage is both its current scale with a leg up on other miners attempting to secure production capacity through next year. The company's low cost of electricity with an estimated production cost of $5,612 per Bitcoin highlights the profitability potential. MARA's efforts at sustainability with a plan to be 100% carbon neutral by the end of 2022 is a benchmark for the entire industry.\nsource: company IR\nTo forecast how many Bitcoins and revenue MARA will be generating by this time next year, we need to consider not only the price of Bitcoin but also the Bitcoin network difficulty. It's understood that as more mining machines go online, the network hash rate will climb and thereby dilute each existing miners' share of the Bitcoin mining potential. Over the course of a year, 52,560 Bitcoin blocks are awarded by the network with each block representing 6.25 BTC. The 328,500 newly minted Bitcoin mined over the course of a year is the market potential MARA is attempting to capture.\nWe mentioned the company's guidance for 13.3 EH/s represents about 8.4% of the current global hash rate. In reality, by the time the full fleet of mining machines is deployed, it's likely the network difficulty will be above 200 EH/s meaning the 8.4% share will be reduced down towards 6.7% or lower. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to how this rate will progress although the general consensus is that the network difficultly will trend higher. From the chart below, we can observe a large drop in the global hash rate in mid-2021 which coincided with Chinese miners going offline as mining was banned in the country. The other dynamic at play is that some of the oldest mining machines online currently go past their lifecycle and need to be replaced generating a regular turnover.\nData by YCharts\nWe are extrapolating how much Marathon's revenue run rate could be by the second half of next year when it fully deploys all announced mining machine purchases. For example, with a hash rate capacity of 13.3 EH/s by mid-2022, assuming a network difficultly level of 215 EH/s at that point, MARA would control 6.2% of the global hash rate and be able to mine approximately 1,693 Bitcoins in a single month. At the current market price of $60k, the monthly revenue would approach $102 million which is annualized to $1.219 billion. By this measure, we can state that shares of MARA are trading at a forward price to sales multiple of 4.3x based on its expected annualized revenue run rate by next year against the current market cap for the stock at $5.2 billion.\nsource: author estimates\nIn our view, MARA is undervalued at its current level in the context of the Bitcoin pricing environment and growth outlook. A forward P/S multiple closer to 5x would better reflect an appropriate growth premium and the company's positive outlook in our opinion. By this measure, at a constant BTC price of $60k and an outlook for the hash rate to trend towards 215 EH/s, we believe MARA should be valued closer to $61.50 as a near-term price target.\nGoing a step further, with an outlook for Bitcoin to potentially reach $100k by next year, we see shares of MARA trending towards $100. From the table above, the Bitcoin market price of $100k at a 215 EH/s hash rate for next year implies MARA is currently trading at a forward P/S of 2.6x. The stock would need to climb at least 92% from the current level to maintain the valuation parity of 5x based on our model.\nThe Big Picture\nThe Bitcoin mining industry continues to mature with more and more investors beginning to recognize the intrinsic value the leading stocks are generating. Marathon Digital as a U.S.-based leader remains one of the most exciting companies in the segment in the middle of a transformative year. We are encouraged by the recent operating and financial results and expect the company to continue executing successfully. We rate shares of MARA as a buy with a bullish price target of $100 per share in a scenario where Bitcoin trends towards $100k.\nLonger-term, the company's scale and growing balance sheet Bitcoin position will offer it more flexibility to expand into related crypto services while adding to its mining capacity. For the upcoming quarters, the Q3 earnings report will provide an opportunity to take a look at the cost structure as production accelerates. Monitoring points include the monthly updates while it will be important for the company to remain on schedule with the mining machines deliveries and deployments.\nIt goes without saying that the main risk here continues to be the price of Bitcoin. While we are bullish, shares are of MARA will be highly sensitive to the cryptocurrency market price. A selloff in BTC under $50k would likely drive some renewed bearish sentiment and higher volatility. The regulatory landscape also remains uncertain. Efforts by some U.S. states to limit Bitcoin mining along with environmental impact concerns can generate headlines that pressure the segment lower. For 2022, we believe the market will begin to look more closely at earnings and cash flows beyond the high-level themes and momentum.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MARA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824552243,"gmtCreate":1634341701982,"gmtModify":1634341702100,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great!","listText":"Great!","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824552243","repostId":"2175117376","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822354500,"gmtCreate":1634094509533,"gmtModify":1634094509635,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will the typhoon be gone in the afternoon?","listText":"Will the typhoon be gone in the afternoon?","text":"Will the typhoon be gone in the afternoon?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822354500","repostId":"1189203328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189203328","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634087217,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189203328?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-13 09:06","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189203328","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.\nStorm warning signal No. 8,","content":"<p>Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.</p><p><blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段。</blockquote></p><p> Storm warning signal No. 8, the third-highest on its scale, will remain in force before noon, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Kompasu, which was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) south-southwest of the city at 7 a.m. local time, is forecast to move west at about 25 kilometers an hour toward China’s Hainan Island, it said on its website.</p><p><blockquote>据香港天文台称，八号风暴警告信号是其级别的第三高信号，将在中午之前继续生效。该公司在其网站上表示，当地时间早上7点，康帕苏位于该市西南偏南约370公里（230英里）处，预计将以每小时约25公里的速度向西移动，向中国海南岛移动。</blockquote></p><p> It is likely that securities trading, including the Hong Kong-China stock connect and derivatives market, will be affected for the whole of Wednesday. If the weather warning isn’t lowered before noon, the entire day’s trading will be abandoned.</p><p><blockquote>很可能整个周三证券交易，包括港股通和衍生品市场都将受到影响。如果天气警告在中午之前没有降低，全天的交易将被放弃。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-13 09:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.</p><p><blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段。</blockquote></p><p> Storm warning signal No. 8, the third-highest on its scale, will remain in force before noon, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Kompasu, which was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) south-southwest of the city at 7 a.m. local time, is forecast to move west at about 25 kilometers an hour toward China’s Hainan Island, it said on its website.</p><p><blockquote>据香港天文台称，八号风暴警告信号是其级别的第三高信号，将在中午之前继续生效。该公司在其网站上表示，当地时间早上7点，康帕苏位于该市西南偏南约370公里（230英里）处，预计将以每小时约25公里的速度向西移动，向中国海南岛移动。</blockquote></p><p> It is likely that securities trading, including the Hong Kong-China stock connect and derivatives market, will be affected for the whole of Wednesday. If the weather warning isn’t lowered before noon, the entire day’s trading will be abandoned.</p><p><blockquote>很可能整个周三证券交易，包括港股通和衍生品市场都将受到影响。如果天气警告在中午之前没有降低，全天的交易将被放弃。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSCEI":"国企指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189203328","content_text":"Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.\nStorm warning signal No. 8, the third-highest on its scale, will remain in force before noon, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Kompasu, which was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) south-southwest of the city at 7 a.m. local time, is forecast to move west at about 25 kilometers an hour toward China’s Hainan Island, it said on its website.\nIt is likely that securities trading, including the Hong Kong-China stock connect and derivatives market, will be affected for the whole of Wednesday. If the weather warning isn’t lowered before noon, the entire day’s trading will be abandoned.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828377562,"gmtCreate":1633854791315,"gmtModify":1633854791315,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for info.&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for info.&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for info.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828377562","repostId":"2174920514","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823195043,"gmtCreate":1633595437952,"gmtModify":1633595438110,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for the analysis.","listText":"Thanks for the analysis.","text":"Thanks for the analysis.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823195043","repostId":"1143310446","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829687324,"gmtCreate":1633499353956,"gmtModify":1633499354052,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Roller coaster.","listText":"Roller coaster.","text":"Roller coaster.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829687324","repostId":"1103782575","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103782575","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633486462,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103782575?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103782575","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously cras","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）——</b>十月在华尔街通常是一个阴森的月份。股市在1929年10月、1987年以及最近的2008年暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> But&nbsp;the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up&nbsp;in October.</p><p><blockquote>但万圣节前夕，市场并不总是一个可怕的地方。事实上，股市通常会在十月份上涨。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&amp;P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.</p><p><blockquote>根据LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick的数据，10月份几乎处于中间位置：它是标普500自1950年以来第7个最佳月份，也是过去10年和20年中第4个最佳月份。</blockquote></p><p> \"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"</p><p><blockquote>德特里克在上周的一份报告中表示：“十月份因一些壮观的车祸而闻名，许多人预计今年会再次发生糟糕的事情。”“但事实是这个月只是被误解了，因为从历史上看，它大约是一个普通的月份。”</blockquote></p><p> And it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.</p><p><blockquote>今年10月的情况可能会好于平均水平，因为11月没有可能改变游戏规则的选举结果。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1999, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.</p><p><blockquote>自1999年以来，标普500在奇数年10月上涨3.6%，在偶数年10月下跌1.1%，与美国大选时间表相对应。</blockquote></p><p> \"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>“事实证明，股票不太喜欢政治，”德特里克说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Many risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>许多风险依然存在，但股市前景仍然乐观</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.</p><p><blockquote>当然，今年DC的头条新闻仍可能扰乱市场，尽管不是因为选举。</blockquote></p><p> The debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.</p><p><blockquote>债务上限争论尚未解决，国会仍未通过总统乔·拜登的基础设施和社会支出计划。与此同时，拜登还必须很快决定是提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔连任美联储主席，还是选择其他人。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier &amp; Associates, said in a report last week.</p><p><blockquote>Navellier&amp;Associates董事长路易斯·纳维利尔(Louis Navellier)在上周的一份报告中表示：“第四季度——就像体育赛事或百老汇戏剧的结局一样——是戏剧所在。”</blockquote></p><p> That said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，纳维利尔希望市场和整体经济通常的季节性顺风能够提振今年的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.</p><p><blockquote>股市往往不仅在10月份强劲上涨，而且在第四季度剩余时间也是如此。消费者支出在假日购物季激增，企业通常希望在年度预算用完之前增加投资。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，一些策略师认为，在展望第四季度和2022年的收益时，投资者将继续关注积极的一面。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.</p><p><blockquote>是的，对新冠肺炎、美联储政策、通货膨胀、全球航运延误和许多其他经济警告信号的担忧仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> But although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管这可能会在10月份和第四季度剩余时间造成比往常更大的波动，但很少有人预计这些挑战会导致另一场衰退。所以股票阻力最小的路径仍然是向上。</blockquote></p><p> \"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"</p><p><blockquote>Silvercrest Asset Management董事总经理罗伯特·蒂特(Robert Teeter)在周一的一份报告中表示：“几乎所有这些问题都显示出解决的切实迹象，并且不会对股票估值造成任何长期损害。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 10:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）——</b>十月在华尔街通常是一个阴森的月份。股市在1929年10月、1987年以及最近的2008年暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> But&nbsp;the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up&nbsp;in October.</p><p><blockquote>但万圣节前夕，市场并不总是一个可怕的地方。事实上，股市通常会在十月份上涨。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&amp;P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.</p><p><blockquote>根据LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick的数据，10月份几乎处于中间位置：它是标普500自1950年以来第7个最佳月份，也是过去10年和20年中第4个最佳月份。</blockquote></p><p> \"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"</p><p><blockquote>德特里克在上周的一份报告中表示：“十月份因一些壮观的车祸而闻名，许多人预计今年会再次发生糟糕的事情。”“但事实是这个月只是被误解了，因为从历史上看，它大约是一个普通的月份。”</blockquote></p><p> And it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.</p><p><blockquote>今年10月的情况可能会好于平均水平，因为11月没有可能改变游戏规则的选举结果。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1999, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.</p><p><blockquote>自1999年以来，标普500在奇数年10月上涨3.6%，在偶数年10月下跌1.1%，与美国大选时间表相对应。</blockquote></p><p> \"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>“事实证明，股票不太喜欢政治，”德特里克说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Many risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>许多风险依然存在，但股市前景仍然乐观</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.</p><p><blockquote>当然，今年DC的头条新闻仍可能扰乱市场，尽管不是因为选举。</blockquote></p><p> The debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.</p><p><blockquote>债务上限争论尚未解决，国会仍未通过总统乔·拜登的基础设施和社会支出计划。与此同时，拜登还必须很快决定是提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔连任美联储主席，还是选择其他人。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier &amp; Associates, said in a report last week.</p><p><blockquote>Navellier&amp;Associates董事长路易斯·纳维利尔(Louis Navellier)在上周的一份报告中表示：“第四季度——就像体育赛事或百老汇戏剧的结局一样——是戏剧所在。”</blockquote></p><p> That said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，纳维利尔希望市场和整体经济通常的季节性顺风能够提振今年的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.</p><p><blockquote>股市往往不仅在10月份强劲上涨，而且在第四季度剩余时间也是如此。消费者支出在假日购物季激增，企业通常希望在年度预算用完之前增加投资。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，一些策略师认为，在展望第四季度和2022年的收益时，投资者将继续关注积极的一面。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.</p><p><blockquote>是的，对新冠肺炎、美联储政策、通货膨胀、全球航运延误和许多其他经济警告信号的担忧仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> But although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管这可能会在10月份和第四季度剩余时间造成比往常更大的波动，但很少有人预计这些挑战会导致另一场衰退。所以股票阻力最小的路径仍然是向上。</blockquote></p><p> \"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"</p><p><blockquote>Silvercrest Asset Management董事总经理罗伯特·蒂特(Robert Teeter)在周一的一份报告中表示：“几乎所有这些问题都显示出解决的切实迹象，并且不会对股票估值造成任何长期损害。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103782575","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.\nBut the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up in October.\nAccording to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.\n\"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"\nAnd it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.\nSince 1999, the S&P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.\n\"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.\nMany risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks\nOf course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.\nThe debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.\n\"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier & Associates, said in a report last week.\nThat said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.\nStocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.\nWith that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.\nYes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.\nBut although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.\n\"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829684478,"gmtCreate":1633499269930,"gmtModify":1633499270040,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Roller coaster.","listText":"Roller coaster.","text":"Roller coaster.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829684478","repostId":"1103782575","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103782575","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633486462,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103782575?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103782575","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously cras","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）——</b>十月在华尔街通常是一个阴森的月份。股市在1929年10月、1987年以及最近的2008年暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> But&nbsp;the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up&nbsp;in October.</p><p><blockquote>但万圣节前夕，市场并不总是一个可怕的地方。事实上，股市通常会在十月份上涨。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&amp;P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.</p><p><blockquote>根据LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick的数据，10月份几乎处于中间位置：它是标普500自1950年以来第7个最佳月份，也是过去10年和20年中第4个最佳月份。</blockquote></p><p> \"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"</p><p><blockquote>德特里克在上周的一份报告中表示：“十月份因一些壮观的车祸而闻名，许多人预计今年会再次发生糟糕的事情。”“但事实是这个月只是被误解了，因为从历史上看，它大约是一个普通的月份。”</blockquote></p><p> And it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.</p><p><blockquote>今年10月的情况可能会好于平均水平，因为11月没有可能改变游戏规则的选举结果。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1999, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.</p><p><blockquote>自1999年以来，标普500在奇数年10月上涨3.6%，在偶数年10月下跌1.1%，与美国大选时间表相对应。</blockquote></p><p> \"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>“事实证明，股票不太喜欢政治，”德特里克说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Many risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>许多风险依然存在，但股市前景仍然乐观</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.</p><p><blockquote>当然，今年DC的头条新闻仍可能扰乱市场，尽管不是因为选举。</blockquote></p><p> The debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.</p><p><blockquote>债务上限争论尚未解决，国会仍未通过总统乔·拜登的基础设施和社会支出计划。与此同时，拜登还必须很快决定是提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔连任美联储主席，还是选择其他人。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier &amp; Associates, said in a report last week.</p><p><blockquote>Navellier&amp;Associates董事长路易斯·纳维利尔(Louis Navellier)在上周的一份报告中表示：“第四季度——就像体育赛事或百老汇戏剧的结局一样——是戏剧所在。”</blockquote></p><p> That said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，纳维利尔希望市场和整体经济通常的季节性顺风能够提振今年的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.</p><p><blockquote>股市往往不仅在10月份强劲上涨，而且在第四季度剩余时间也是如此。消费者支出在假日购物季激增，企业通常希望在年度预算用完之前增加投资。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，一些策略师认为，在展望第四季度和2022年的收益时，投资者将继续关注积极的一面。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.</p><p><blockquote>是的，对新冠肺炎、美联储政策、通货膨胀、全球航运延误和许多其他经济警告信号的担忧仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> But although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管这可能会在10月份和第四季度剩余时间造成比往常更大的波动，但很少有人预计这些挑战会导致另一场衰退。所以股票阻力最小的路径仍然是向上。</blockquote></p><p> \"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"</p><p><blockquote>Silvercrest Asset Management董事总经理罗伯特·蒂特(Robert Teeter)在周一的一份报告中表示：“几乎所有这些问题都显示出解决的切实迹象，并且不会对股票估值造成任何长期损害。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 10:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）——</b>十月在华尔街通常是一个阴森的月份。股市在1929年10月、1987年以及最近的2008年暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> But&nbsp;the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up&nbsp;in October.</p><p><blockquote>但万圣节前夕，市场并不总是一个可怕的地方。事实上，股市通常会在十月份上涨。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&amp;P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.</p><p><blockquote>根据LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick的数据，10月份几乎处于中间位置：它是标普500自1950年以来第7个最佳月份，也是过去10年和20年中第4个最佳月份。</blockquote></p><p> \"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"</p><p><blockquote>德特里克在上周的一份报告中表示：“十月份因一些壮观的车祸而闻名，许多人预计今年会再次发生糟糕的事情。”“但事实是这个月只是被误解了，因为从历史上看，它大约是一个普通的月份。”</blockquote></p><p> And it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.</p><p><blockquote>今年10月的情况可能会好于平均水平，因为11月没有可能改变游戏规则的选举结果。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1999, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.</p><p><blockquote>自1999年以来，标普500在奇数年10月上涨3.6%，在偶数年10月下跌1.1%，与美国大选时间表相对应。</blockquote></p><p> \"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>“事实证明，股票不太喜欢政治，”德特里克说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Many risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>许多风险依然存在，但股市前景仍然乐观</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.</p><p><blockquote>当然，今年DC的头条新闻仍可能扰乱市场，尽管不是因为选举。</blockquote></p><p> The debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.</p><p><blockquote>债务上限争论尚未解决，国会仍未通过总统乔·拜登的基础设施和社会支出计划。与此同时，拜登还必须很快决定是提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔连任美联储主席，还是选择其他人。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier &amp; Associates, said in a report last week.</p><p><blockquote>Navellier&amp;Associates董事长路易斯·纳维利尔(Louis Navellier)在上周的一份报告中表示：“第四季度——就像体育赛事或百老汇戏剧的结局一样——是戏剧所在。”</blockquote></p><p> That said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，纳维利尔希望市场和整体经济通常的季节性顺风能够提振今年的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.</p><p><blockquote>股市往往不仅在10月份强劲上涨，而且在第四季度剩余时间也是如此。消费者支出在假日购物季激增，企业通常希望在年度预算用完之前增加投资。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，一些策略师认为，在展望第四季度和2022年的收益时，投资者将继续关注积极的一面。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.</p><p><blockquote>是的，对新冠肺炎、美联储政策、通货膨胀、全球航运延误和许多其他经济警告信号的担忧仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> But although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管这可能会在10月份和第四季度剩余时间造成比往常更大的波动，但很少有人预计这些挑战会导致另一场衰退。所以股票阻力最小的路径仍然是向上。</blockquote></p><p> \"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"</p><p><blockquote>Silvercrest Asset Management董事总经理罗伯特·蒂特(Robert Teeter)在周一的一份报告中表示：“几乎所有这些问题都显示出解决的切实迹象，并且不会对股票估值造成任何长期损害。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103782575","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.\nBut the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up in October.\nAccording to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.\n\"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"\nAnd it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.\nSince 1999, the S&P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.\n\"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.\nMany risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks\nOf course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.\nThe debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.\n\"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier & Associates, said in a report last week.\nThat said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.\nStocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.\nWith that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.\nYes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.\nBut although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.\n\"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862153380,"gmtCreate":1632846397255,"gmtModify":1632846397255,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Speculative share.","listText":"Speculative share.","text":"Speculative share.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862153380","repostId":"1186367782","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862150867,"gmtCreate":1632846239683,"gmtModify":1632846239734,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862150867","repostId":"1186367782","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":777,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":860369842,"gmtCreate":1632137070286,"gmtModify":1632802617205,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860369842","repostId":"884514248","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":884514248,"gmtCreate":1631918790484,"gmtModify":1631934545952,"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3559581955535845","idStr":"3559581955535845"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/D05.SI\">$DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(D05.SI)$</a>&nbsp;is the biggest bank in Singapore with SGD 646 billion in total assets and employing more than 30000 employees.&nbsp; DBS is operating in 18 markets and also present in China, South East Asia and India.&nbsp; It has 'AA' and 'Aa1' credit rating, among the best in the world.DBS has received 25&nbsp;Global awards, the latest is 'World' s Best Bank' 2021 by Euro money and the 'Safest Bank in Asia' by Global Finance for 12 consecutive years!First half net profit is&nbsp;up 54% to record SGD3. 71 billion, return on equity at 14.0%. Second quarter net profit is&nbsp;up 37% to SGD1. 70 billion. This is the highest on record.DBS Digital Exchange bills itself as the world's only bank-backed full service digital bourse of","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/D05.SI\">$DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(D05.SI)$</a>&nbsp;is the biggest bank in Singapore with SGD 646 billion in total assets and employing more than 30000 employees.&nbsp; DBS is operating in 18 markets and also present in China, South East Asia and India.&nbsp; It has 'AA' and 'Aa1' credit rating, among the best in the world.DBS has received 25&nbsp;Global awards, the latest is 'World' s Best Bank' 2021 by Euro money and the 'Safest Bank in Asia' by Global Finance for 12 consecutive years!First half net profit is&nbsp;up 54% to record SGD3. 71 billion, return on equity at 14.0%. Second quarter net profit is&nbsp;up 37% to SGD1. 70 billion. This is the highest on record.DBS Digital Exchange bills itself as the world's only bank-backed full service digital bourse of","text":"$DBS GROUP HOLDINGS LTD(D05.SI)$ is the biggest bank in Singapore with SGD 646 billion in total assets and employing more than 30000 employees. DBS is operating in 18 markets and also present in China, South East Asia and India. It has 'AA' and 'Aa1' credit rating, among the best in the world.DBS has received 25 Global awards, the latest is 'World' s Best Bank' 2021 by Euro money and the 'Safest Bank in Asia' by Global Finance for 12 consecutive years!First half net profit is up 54% to record SGD3. 71 billion, return on equity at 14.0%. Second quarter net profit is up 37% to SGD1. 70 billion. This is the highest on record.DBS Digital Exchange bills itself as the world's only bank-backed full service digital bourse of","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9689225830287e4cf3d7117e0f536fc0","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884514248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860360254,"gmtCreate":1632137004778,"gmtModify":1632802617943,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860360254","repostId":"884337672","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":884337672,"gmtCreate":1631855227796,"gmtModify":1631892707030,"author":{"id":"3586127874794069","authorId":"3586127874794069","name":"Plsbegentle1","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c3a6a2bf32594e65068fb5020652465","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586127874794069","idStr":"3586127874794069"},"themes":[],"title":"4 High potential Growth Stock","htmlText":"Key Points -Innovation often drives rapid sales growth. -However, sales growth alone rarely tells the full story about a company. For more than a decade, growth stocks have been unstoppable. Abundant access to cheap capital and historically low lending rates have allowed fast-growing businesses to hire, acquire, and put their innovative prowess to work. But for some companies, their growth is just getting started. For the following four under-the-radar small-cap growth stocks, Wall Street expects sales to increase by 707% to as much as 9,406% over the next four years. Bionano Genomics<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNGO\">$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$</a>: Implied sales growth of 1,182% by 2024 First up is small-cap genome analysis company Bionano Genomics (NASDAQ:BNGO). Wall Stree","listText":"Key Points -Innovation often drives rapid sales growth. -However, sales growth alone rarely tells the full story about a company. For more than a decade, growth stocks have been unstoppable. Abundant access to cheap capital and historically low lending rates have allowed fast-growing businesses to hire, acquire, and put their innovative prowess to work. But for some companies, their growth is just getting started. For the following four under-the-radar small-cap growth stocks, Wall Street expects sales to increase by 707% to as much as 9,406% over the next four years. Bionano Genomics<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNGO\">$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$</a>: Implied sales growth of 1,182% by 2024 First up is small-cap genome analysis company Bionano Genomics (NASDAQ:BNGO). Wall Stree","text":"Key Points -Innovation often drives rapid sales growth. -However, sales growth alone rarely tells the full story about a company. For more than a decade, growth stocks have been unstoppable. Abundant access to cheap capital and historically low lending rates have allowed fast-growing businesses to hire, acquire, and put their innovative prowess to work. But for some companies, their growth is just getting started. For the following four under-the-radar small-cap growth stocks, Wall Street expects sales to increase by 707% to as much as 9,406% over the next four years. Bionano Genomics$Bionano Genomics(BNGO)$: Implied sales growth of 1,182% by 2024 First up is small-cap genome analysis company Bionano Genomics (NASDAQ:BNGO). Wall Stree","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/714b02854b5da859715bb7cdcf515856","width":"1000","height":"764"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02663ba874394070d869e9cf6864e51a","width":"1000","height":"665"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3aee6e4ff5729f8428faa9782dba5a6","width":"1000","height":"666"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884337672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":870155720,"gmtCreate":1636595344382,"gmtModify":1636595344382,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good summary of the stocks performances.","listText":"Good summary of the stocks performances.","text":"Good summary of the stocks performances.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870155720","repostId":"2182213053","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828377562,"gmtCreate":1633854791315,"gmtModify":1633854791315,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks for info.&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks for info.&nbsp;","text":"Thanks for info.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828377562","repostId":"2174920514","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840216647,"gmtCreate":1635649009082,"gmtModify":1635649009175,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up soon","listText":"Up soon","text":"Up soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840216647","repostId":"1104228860","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":817647502,"gmtCreate":1630951833506,"gmtModify":1631889526786,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817647502","repostId":"1186375251","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186375251","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630909435,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186375251?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 14:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点进行投资的3条黄金法则</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186375251","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMarkets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correcti","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Markets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.</li>  <li>As markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.</li>  <li>What should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?</li>  <li>In this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5f0c9f1aacfbc6d8c78d0e84da5fc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>phive2015/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场每周都在继续创下历史新高，并且在200多个交易日中没有出现明显的回调。</li><li>随着市场反弹，许多投资者开始固步自封，而在历史高点做出投资决策实际上比以往任何时候都更加重要。</li><li>在今天的市场上你应该注意什么？您应该以这些高估的价格卖出，还是今天买入仍然可以获得丰厚的回报？</li><li>在这篇文章中，我将分享我关于如何在像今天这样的历史高点进行投资的三条黄金法则。这些信息对你未来在市场上创造财富非常有价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>phive2015/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.</p><p><blockquote>2021年股市一路狂飙。8月底，标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）今年迄今上涨20.4%。有趣的是，该指数一直在非常狭窄的上行区间内交易，已经208个交易日没有出现5%的回调。虽然大多数投资者并不认为这是异常现象，但事实确实如此。这两个事件在股市历史上只发生过7次。我们显然生活在一个非常时期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ccc72065c84083443d6be7f03482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.</p><p><blockquote>每天彻底思考你所做的投资决策是很重要的。最重要的是，所有的购买或销售都会影响你未来在市场上的财富积累。</blockquote></p><p> However, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在像今天这样的极端反弹期间，反思你的投资决策是加倍重要的。问问那些在互联网泡沫期间承担高风险或在Covid-19崩盘期间恐慌性抛售的投资者就知道了。这无疑对他们的长期回报产生了巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> The importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.</p><p><blockquote>今天的投资决策对你的长期回报的重要性，这就是为什么我选择写下我关于如何在历史高点投资的三条黄金法则。你应该如何对待今天的市场，你应该注意什么？您应该在这些高估的价格卖出并等待调整发生，还是在这些水平买入时仍然能产生巨大的回报？本文将提供这些价值百万美元的问题的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don't get caught by greediness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要被贪婪所困</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从最重要的规则开始。避免贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&amp;P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通的数据，在过去的20年里，普通投资者的年回报率仅为2.9%。因此，它们的表现明显落后于大盘，因为标普500在此期间的年回报率为7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者表现不佳的最重要原因是什么？情绪化的人类行为。</blockquote></p><p> The average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.</p><p><blockquote>普通投资者受到媒体头条、股价走势和其他投资者行为的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&amp;P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们达到了一个极其看涨的股市环境。上一个财报季是股市历史上最伟大的财报季之一。标普500每股收益同比增长94.5%，86.1%的成分股超出分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> As a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:</p><p><blockquote>由于这种看涨的环境，分析师大幅上调了对未来几个季度的预期。他们现在预计，到2022年底，每股收益将大幅升至217.96美元，较大流行前157.12美元的高点大幅回升。这样的复苏看起来很乐观，因为在过去的经济周期中花了7-12年才实现这一目标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1accc921d16b11ec13ed94686b9cfe75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于标准普尔全球数据的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Will earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度的盈利真的会继续这种非常强劲的复苏吗？还是分析师可能对他们的假设过于贪婪？</blockquote></p><p> It wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们太贪婪，这也不是第一次了。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，他们也被自己的情绪所困扰。就标普500的盈利增长而言，90年代是异常强劲的十年。因此，分析师完全忘记了下行周期也存在。他们将2000年之后五年的年度每股收益增长指引提高到惊人的15%。根据他们的说法，这种高增长率证明了股票交易市盈率创纪录的倍数是合理的，许多投资者被骗了。</blockquote></p><p> What happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>之后发生了什么？经济没有繁荣，而是陷入了衰退，花了3年时间才恢复过来。2003年的盈利比分析师2000年的预测低了近50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&amp;P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场定价符合分析师的预期，而不是考虑可能的低迷，标普500崩溃并花了7年时间才恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0081f4a9c3ee43b20684f113cb04ef9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P Global数据和Yardeni的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's get back to today... The P/E of the S&amp;P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到今天...标普500的市盈率目前为25.4倍，与历史水平相比极高。人们普遍认为收入将继续大幅增长，这证明了这一点。因此，到2022年底，该比率将降至可接受的20.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> Now ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>现在问问你自己，未来几个季度盈利增长继续高于历史平均水平的可能性有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.</p><p><blockquote>利率已经是0%了。印钞机的纸快用完了。联邦债务水平正在触及上限。过去几个季度，被压抑的需求和刺激支票已经导致消费者支出创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.</p><p><blockquote>也许，仅仅是也许，分析师对他们的假设过于贪婪？也许最近的经济复苏是不可持续的，并将降温？也许我的假设（灰线）比市场预测的（红线）更有可能？如果是这样的话，市场的2022年预期市盈率为23.6倍，这确实很贵。</blockquote></p><p> I'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定这会发生，没人知道。但这肯定是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61310c3c851b181ceb1fb3cc8862fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P Global数据和Yardeni的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.</p><p><blockquote>这种贪婪也反映在图表中。如下图所示，牛市可以分为四个周期。强劲增长、熊市陷阱、媒体关注和贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，2013-2021年的牛市与1994-2000年的牛市几乎一模一样。此时此刻，纳斯达克指数（QQQ）看起来已经准备好开始最后的极度贪婪阶段。媒体将最近的反弹视为“新常态”，投资者正在FOMO大举买入，因为股市“只能上涨”。因此，纳斯达克可能会在2021年最后几个月升至接近20,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> As a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，了解这些动态极其重要。你可能也会有全押风险资产的冲动。然而，在此阶段变得贪婪可能会对您的长期回报构成重大威胁，因为接下来可能会出现重大熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c783bf0cff4c410846a27c2dc8c180b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Human behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.</p><p><blockquote>人类行为使得不被市场情绪分心变得极具挑战性。如果你能对市场保持客观的看法，这将大大有利于你的回报。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.坚持投资，机会总是有的</blockquote></p><p> In short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，规则1说，你的决定永远不应该被情绪所引导，你应该继续关注潜在的基本面。随着今天市场变得贪婪，估值达到极端水平，这意味着你应该开始出售股票并持有大量现金，对吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not really... You know, a wise man once said the following:</p><p><blockquote>不是真的...你知道，一位智者曾经说过这样的话：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.</b>  I'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.</p><p><blockquote><b>这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。</b>我不完全确定是谁想出来的。但肯定是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> What does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？看，许多散户投资者根据整体市场的前景来买卖股票。如果他们不信任市场，无论如何他们都不愿意投资。</blockquote></p><p> That's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.</p><p><blockquote>这不是看待市场的好方法。有近4,000只股票可供选择，无论市场如何发展，总会有有趣的投资机会产生巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.</p><p><blockquote>在一个普遍被高估的市场中，找到被低估的股票变得越来越具有挑战性，但肯定不是不可能。问问沃伦·巴菲特。2000年，史上估值最高的股市，他的投资工具伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）不断买入优质、被低估的资产。他的奉献得到了回报，在互联网泡沫达到顶峰五年后，他获得了令人印象深刻的47%的回报率，而纳斯达克指数的回报率为-39%。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.</p><p><blockquote>罗素2000(IWM)是一个反映美国小盘股的指数，在互联网泡沫期间也非常有吸引力，2000年的市盈率为16倍（大盘股为24倍）。那些在泡沫期间投资这一被低估的资产类别的人也获得了非常稳健的回报。我可以想象，那些能够挑选出最伟大的小盘股的人比那些被骗进过度炒作的科技股的人要快乐得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c713a296e819a255b3be8ac6e504033d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.</p><p><blockquote>那么你今天应该做什么呢？我建议重新评估你所有的投资组合。当Covid-19的干扰（刺激、被压抑的需求等）消失后，将它们的估值与3年后的收益进行权衡。对你的假设要保守。如果一只股票与这些假设相比被严重高估，不要贪婪并卖出头寸。</blockquote></p><p> A great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司（AAPL）就是一个很好的例子，它是今年最受欢迎的股票之一。由于其财务状况非常强劲（上季度收入增长36.4%），其市盈率在过去两年中增长了一倍多，达到30倍。重要的是要明白，它最近的增长主要是由于不可持续的驱动因素，如几轮刺激支票。一旦这种情况消失，苹果的增长可能会回落到个位数（甚至可能在短期内为负），未来的回报将非常疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Don't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&amp;P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>不要将所有释放的资本都保留在现金中，尤其是在当前的通胀环境下。仍然有机会将这笔钱进行再投资。在我看来，小盘股是当今最具吸引力的资产类别，就像2000年一样。在最近表现不佳之后，罗素2000指数（代表所有美国小盘股）目前的市盈率为15.6倍。这远低于标普500指数及其历史平均水平。有很多小盘股机会，未来将产生巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f132a93975b3b7fef86aff21c0b49bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yardeni</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚德尼</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.采用行之有效的投资策略来挑选股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Rule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.</p><p><blockquote>规则#1和#2在纸面上看起来很好，但在现实中很难执行。到了紧要关头，很难否认自己的情绪，也很难在估值过高的市场中找到有趣的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> That's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是第三点发挥作用的地方：采用行之有效的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> With the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市即将面临的挑战，我相信在高度不确定的市场环境中，遵循一个可以依赖的预先确定的策略从未像今天这样重要。如果你使用了一个在过去行之有效的策略，你会在每个市场环境中感觉很好。</blockquote></p><p> There are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>只要你坚持，有很多策略对你有用。我们坚信，我们在内部机会方面被低估的策略在未来几年将非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p> To find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找有吸引力的投资机会，我们每天都会跟踪内幕交易。内部人士是首席财务官、首席执行官、董事会成员等。他们比市场上的任何人都更了解自己的业务。如果他们看到股价与业务基本面脱节，他们可以购买股票来产生利润。您可以通过SEC文件或openinsider.com等网站每天跟踪这种所谓“聪明资金”的购买情况。</blockquote></p><p> We don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".</p><p><blockquote>我们不只是跟进内幕交易。我们根据过去十年的100多万个数据点创建了三种算法，从所有内幕购买中挑选出最好的。因此，我们坚持预先确定的计划，只购买基于特定基本面有吸引力的股票，称为“黄金精选”。</blockquote></p><p> It worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&amp;P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>它在过去非常有效。我们的回溯测试显示，该策略在过去十年中产生了47.2%的年化回报率，是标普500指数的三倍。只有在2011年，它的表现略逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05af9240a87a55641df0a7921ec0380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>我们坚信，无论市场表现如何，这一革命性的策略都将继续在股市为我们创造财富。给自己找一个像我们这样严格的、经过验证的策略，在即将到来的不确定性中，你可以依靠它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Do this at all-time highs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：在历史高点这样做</b></blockquote></p><p> Most stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?</p><p><blockquote>当达到历史高点时，大多数股市投资者都固步自封。最重要的是，在这样一个牛市中，什么都不会出错，对吧？</blockquote></p><p> No, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>不，事情不是这样的。市场是周期性发展的，那些不认识到适应这些周期重要性的人将会受到长期回报疲软的打击。</blockquote></p><p> How should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:</p><p><blockquote>你应该如何接近今天的历史高点，以继续创造财富？以下是我的三条黄金法则：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>Don't get greedy.</b>As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.</li>  <li><b>Keep being invested.</b>Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.</li>  <li><b>Adopt a proven strategy.</b>Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>不要贪心。</b>由于情绪行为，当市场上涨时，你会想要承担更高的风险。永远不要跟随这些情绪，永远专注于基本面。</li><li><b>继续投资。</b>不要仅仅因为市场被高估就不愿意投资股票。承认这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。每个市场环境下总有很大的机会。如今，它们大多出现在不为人知的小盘股中。</li><li><b>采用行之有效的策略。</b>投资并不容易，尤其是当事情开始南移的时候。采用严格的、经过验证的投资策略可以让生活变得更加轻松并显着提高回报。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点进行投资的3条黄金法则</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点进行投资的3条黄金法则</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 14:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Markets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.</li>  <li>As markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.</li>  <li>What should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?</li>  <li>In this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5f0c9f1aacfbc6d8c78d0e84da5fc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>phive2015/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场每周都在继续创下历史新高，并且在200多个交易日中没有出现明显的回调。</li><li>随着市场反弹，许多投资者开始固步自封，而在历史高点做出投资决策实际上比以往任何时候都更加重要。</li><li>在今天的市场上你应该注意什么？您应该以这些高估的价格卖出，还是今天买入仍然可以获得丰厚的回报？</li><li>在这篇文章中，我将分享我关于如何在像今天这样的历史高点进行投资的三条黄金法则。这些信息对你未来在市场上创造财富非常有价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>phive2015/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.</p><p><blockquote>2021年股市一路狂飙。8月底，标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）今年迄今上涨20.4%。有趣的是，该指数一直在非常狭窄的上行区间内交易，已经208个交易日没有出现5%的回调。虽然大多数投资者并不认为这是异常现象，但事实确实如此。这两个事件在股市历史上只发生过7次。我们显然生活在一个非常时期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ccc72065c84083443d6be7f03482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.</p><p><blockquote>每天彻底思考你所做的投资决策是很重要的。最重要的是，所有的购买或销售都会影响你未来在市场上的财富积累。</blockquote></p><p> However, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在像今天这样的极端反弹期间，反思你的投资决策是加倍重要的。问问那些在互联网泡沫期间承担高风险或在Covid-19崩盘期间恐慌性抛售的投资者就知道了。这无疑对他们的长期回报产生了巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> The importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.</p><p><blockquote>今天的投资决策对你的长期回报的重要性，这就是为什么我选择写下我关于如何在历史高点投资的三条黄金法则。你应该如何对待今天的市场，你应该注意什么？您应该在这些高估的价格卖出并等待调整发生，还是在这些水平买入时仍然能产生巨大的回报？本文将提供这些价值百万美元的问题的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don't get caught by greediness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要被贪婪所困</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从最重要的规则开始。避免贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&amp;P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通的数据，在过去的20年里，普通投资者的年回报率仅为2.9%。因此，它们的表现明显落后于大盘，因为标普500在此期间的年回报率为7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者表现不佳的最重要原因是什么？情绪化的人类行为。</blockquote></p><p> The average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.</p><p><blockquote>普通投资者受到媒体头条、股价走势和其他投资者行为的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&amp;P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们达到了一个极其看涨的股市环境。上一个财报季是股市历史上最伟大的财报季之一。标普500每股收益同比增长94.5%，86.1%的成分股超出分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> As a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:</p><p><blockquote>由于这种看涨的环境，分析师大幅上调了对未来几个季度的预期。他们现在预计，到2022年底，每股收益将大幅升至217.96美元，较大流行前157.12美元的高点大幅回升。这样的复苏看起来很乐观，因为在过去的经济周期中花了7-12年才实现这一目标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1accc921d16b11ec13ed94686b9cfe75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于标准普尔全球数据的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Will earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度的盈利真的会继续这种非常强劲的复苏吗？还是分析师可能对他们的假设过于贪婪？</blockquote></p><p> It wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们太贪婪，这也不是第一次了。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，他们也被自己的情绪所困扰。就标普500的盈利增长而言，90年代是异常强劲的十年。因此，分析师完全忘记了下行周期也存在。他们将2000年之后五年的年度每股收益增长指引提高到惊人的15%。根据他们的说法，这种高增长率证明了股票交易市盈率创纪录的倍数是合理的，许多投资者被骗了。</blockquote></p><p> What happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>之后发生了什么？经济没有繁荣，而是陷入了衰退，花了3年时间才恢复过来。2003年的盈利比分析师2000年的预测低了近50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&amp;P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场定价符合分析师的预期，而不是考虑可能的低迷，标普500崩溃并花了7年时间才恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0081f4a9c3ee43b20684f113cb04ef9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P Global数据和Yardeni的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's get back to today... The P/E of the S&amp;P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到今天...标普500的市盈率目前为25.4倍，与历史水平相比极高。人们普遍认为收入将继续大幅增长，这证明了这一点。因此，到2022年底，该比率将降至可接受的20.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> Now ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>现在问问你自己，未来几个季度盈利增长继续高于历史平均水平的可能性有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.</p><p><blockquote>利率已经是0%了。印钞机的纸快用完了。联邦债务水平正在触及上限。过去几个季度，被压抑的需求和刺激支票已经导致消费者支出创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.</p><p><blockquote>也许，仅仅是也许，分析师对他们的假设过于贪婪？也许最近的经济复苏是不可持续的，并将降温？也许我的假设（灰线）比市场预测的（红线）更有可能？如果是这样的话，市场的2022年预期市盈率为23.6倍，这确实很贵。</blockquote></p><p> I'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定这会发生，没人知道。但这肯定是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61310c3c851b181ceb1fb3cc8862fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P Global数据和Yardeni的内幕机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.</p><p><blockquote>这种贪婪也反映在图表中。如下图所示，牛市可以分为四个周期。强劲增长、熊市陷阱、媒体关注和贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，2013-2021年的牛市与1994-2000年的牛市几乎一模一样。此时此刻，纳斯达克指数（QQQ）看起来已经准备好开始最后的极度贪婪阶段。媒体将最近的反弹视为“新常态”，投资者正在FOMO大举买入，因为股市“只能上涨”。因此，纳斯达克可能会在2021年最后几个月升至接近20,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> As a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，了解这些动态极其重要。你可能也会有全押风险资产的冲动。然而，在此阶段变得贪婪可能会对您的长期回报构成重大威胁，因为接下来可能会出现重大熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c783bf0cff4c410846a27c2dc8c180b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Human behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.</p><p><blockquote>人类行为使得不被市场情绪分心变得极具挑战性。如果你能对市场保持客观的看法，这将大大有利于你的回报。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.坚持投资，机会总是有的</blockquote></p><p> In short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，规则1说，你的决定永远不应该被情绪所引导，你应该继续关注潜在的基本面。随着今天市场变得贪婪，估值达到极端水平，这意味着你应该开始出售股票并持有大量现金，对吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not really... You know, a wise man once said the following:</p><p><blockquote>不是真的...你知道，一位智者曾经说过这样的话：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.</b>  I'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.</p><p><blockquote><b>这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。</b>我不完全确定是谁想出来的。但肯定是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> What does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？看，许多散户投资者根据整体市场的前景来买卖股票。如果他们不信任市场，无论如何他们都不愿意投资。</blockquote></p><p> That's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.</p><p><blockquote>这不是看待市场的好方法。有近4,000只股票可供选择，无论市场如何发展，总会有有趣的投资机会产生巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.</p><p><blockquote>在一个普遍被高估的市场中，找到被低估的股票变得越来越具有挑战性，但肯定不是不可能。问问沃伦·巴菲特。2000年，史上估值最高的股市，他的投资工具伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）不断买入优质、被低估的资产。他的奉献得到了回报，在互联网泡沫达到顶峰五年后，他获得了令人印象深刻的47%的回报率，而纳斯达克指数的回报率为-39%。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.</p><p><blockquote>罗素2000(IWM)是一个反映美国小盘股的指数，在互联网泡沫期间也非常有吸引力，2000年的市盈率为16倍（大盘股为24倍）。那些在泡沫期间投资这一被低估的资产类别的人也获得了非常稳健的回报。我可以想象，那些能够挑选出最伟大的小盘股的人比那些被骗进过度炒作的科技股的人要快乐得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c713a296e819a255b3be8ac6e504033d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.</p><p><blockquote>那么你今天应该做什么呢？我建议重新评估你所有的投资组合。当Covid-19的干扰（刺激、被压抑的需求等）消失后，将它们的估值与3年后的收益进行权衡。对你的假设要保守。如果一只股票与这些假设相比被严重高估，不要贪婪并卖出头寸。</blockquote></p><p> A great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司（AAPL）就是一个很好的例子，它是今年最受欢迎的股票之一。由于其财务状况非常强劲（上季度收入增长36.4%），其市盈率在过去两年中增长了一倍多，达到30倍。重要的是要明白，它最近的增长主要是由于不可持续的驱动因素，如几轮刺激支票。一旦这种情况消失，苹果的增长可能会回落到个位数（甚至可能在短期内为负），未来的回报将非常疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Don't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&amp;P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>不要将所有释放的资本都保留在现金中，尤其是在当前的通胀环境下。仍然有机会将这笔钱进行再投资。在我看来，小盘股是当今最具吸引力的资产类别，就像2000年一样。在最近表现不佳之后，罗素2000指数（代表所有美国小盘股）目前的市盈率为15.6倍。这远低于标普500指数及其历史平均水平。有很多小盘股机会，未来将产生巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f132a93975b3b7fef86aff21c0b49bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yardeni</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚德尼</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.采用行之有效的投资策略来挑选股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Rule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.</p><p><blockquote>规则#1和#2在纸面上看起来很好，但在现实中很难执行。到了紧要关头，很难否认自己的情绪，也很难在估值过高的市场中找到有趣的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> That's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是第三点发挥作用的地方：采用行之有效的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> With the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市即将面临的挑战，我相信在高度不确定的市场环境中，遵循一个可以依赖的预先确定的策略从未像今天这样重要。如果你使用了一个在过去行之有效的策略，你会在每个市场环境中感觉很好。</blockquote></p><p> There are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>只要你坚持，有很多策略对你有用。我们坚信，我们在内部机会方面被低估的策略在未来几年将非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p> To find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找有吸引力的投资机会，我们每天都会跟踪内幕交易。内部人士是首席财务官、首席执行官、董事会成员等。他们比市场上的任何人都更了解自己的业务。如果他们看到股价与业务基本面脱节，他们可以购买股票来产生利润。您可以通过SEC文件或openinsider.com等网站每天跟踪这种所谓“聪明资金”的购买情况。</blockquote></p><p> We don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".</p><p><blockquote>我们不只是跟进内幕交易。我们根据过去十年的100多万个数据点创建了三种算法，从所有内幕购买中挑选出最好的。因此，我们坚持预先确定的计划，只购买基于特定基本面有吸引力的股票，称为“黄金精选”。</blockquote></p><p> It worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&amp;P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>它在过去非常有效。我们的回溯测试显示，该策略在过去十年中产生了47.2%的年化回报率，是标普500指数的三倍。只有在2011年，它的表现略逊于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05af9240a87a55641df0a7921ec0380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>我们坚信，无论市场表现如何，这一革命性的策略都将继续在股市为我们创造财富。给自己找一个像我们这样严格的、经过验证的策略，在即将到来的不确定性中，你可以依靠它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Do this at all-time highs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：在历史高点这样做</b></blockquote></p><p> Most stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?</p><p><blockquote>当达到历史高点时，大多数股市投资者都固步自封。最重要的是，在这样一个牛市中，什么都不会出错，对吧？</blockquote></p><p> No, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>不，事情不是这样的。市场是周期性发展的，那些不认识到适应这些周期重要性的人将会受到长期回报疲软的打击。</blockquote></p><p> How should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:</p><p><blockquote>你应该如何接近今天的历史高点，以继续创造财富？以下是我的三条黄金法则：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>Don't get greedy.</b>As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.</li>  <li><b>Keep being invested.</b>Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.</li>  <li><b>Adopt a proven strategy.</b>Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>不要贪心。</b>由于情绪行为，当市场上涨时，你会想要承担更高的风险。永远不要跟随这些情绪，永远专注于基本面。</li><li><b>继续投资。</b>不要仅仅因为市场被高估就不愿意投资股票。承认这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。每个市场环境下总有很大的机会。如今，它们大多出现在不为人知的小盘股中。</li><li><b>采用行之有效的策略。</b>投资并不容易，尤其是当事情开始南移的时候。采用严格的、经过验证的投资策略可以让生活变得更加轻松并显着提高回报。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453541-3-golden-rules-on-how-to-invest-at-all-time-highs\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453541-3-golden-rules-on-how-to-invest-at-all-time-highs","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186375251","content_text":"Summary\n\nMarkets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.\nAs markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.\nWhat should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?\nIn this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.\n\nphive2015/iStock via Getty Images\nThe stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.\nSource: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview\nEach day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.\nHowever, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.\nThe importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.\n1. Don't get caught by greediness\nLet's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.\nAccording to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.\nThe single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.\nThe average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.\nToday, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.\nAs a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data; adjusted EPS is used\nWill earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?\nIt wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.\nWhat happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.\nAs markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used\nLet's get back to today... The P/E of the S&P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.\nNow ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.\nInterest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.\nMaybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.\nI'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used\nThis greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.\nInterestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.\nAs a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.\nSource: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview\nHuman behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.\n2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities\nIn short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?\nNot really... You know, a wise man once said the following:\n\nIt's a market of stocks, not a stock market.\n\nI'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.\nWhat does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.\nThat's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.\nIn a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.\nThe Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.\nData by YCharts\nSo what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.\nA great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.\nDon't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.\nSource: Yardeni\n3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks\nRule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.\nThat's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.\nWith the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.\nThere are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.\nTo find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.\nWe don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".\nIt worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.\nSource: Insider Opportunities\n\nWe firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.\nConclusion: Do this at all-time highs\nMost stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?\nNo, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.\nHow should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:\n\nDon't get greedy.As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.\nKeep being invested.Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.\nAdopt a proven strategy.Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":862153380,"gmtCreate":1632846397255,"gmtModify":1632846397255,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Speculative share.","listText":"Speculative share.","text":"Speculative share.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862153380","repostId":"1186367782","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":803429268,"gmtCreate":1627458433754,"gmtModify":1631884320381,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope that AMZN will split the stock.","listText":"Hope that AMZN will split the stock.","text":"Hope that AMZN will split the stock.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803429268","repostId":"2154502919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":872775078,"gmtCreate":1637582438394,"gmtModify":1637582438471,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.","listText":"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.","text":"Hope for the best, prepare for the worst.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872775078","repostId":"2185826772","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824552243,"gmtCreate":1634341701982,"gmtModify":1634341702100,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great!","listText":"Great!","text":"Great!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824552243","repostId":"2175117376","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":897364296,"gmtCreate":1628891217215,"gmtModify":1631889526843,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Don’t be over confident when you get vaccinated. Stay vigilant and continue to practice safety measures.","listText":"Don’t be over confident when you get vaccinated. Stay vigilant and continue to practice safety measures.","text":"Don’t be over confident when you get vaccinated. Stay vigilant and continue to practice safety measures.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897364296","repostId":"1100082773","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":463,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":853689181,"gmtCreate":1634800403686,"gmtModify":1634800403834,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Risky game although the potential returns lookvery impressive.","listText":"Risky game although the potential returns lookvery impressive.","text":"Risky game although the potential returns lookvery impressive.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853689181","repostId":"1114856613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114856613","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634799659,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114856613?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-21 15:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Marathon Digital Stock: More Upside With A Breakout In Bitcoin<blockquote>马拉松数字股票：比特币突破带来更多上涨空间</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114856613","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMarathon Digital Holdings is benefiting from the strong momentum in bitcoin approaching an ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Marathon Digital Holdings is benefiting from the strong momentum in bitcoin approaching an all-time high.</li>  <li>The company has reported strong bitcoin mining production growth which is expected to accelerate as it increases capacity.</li>  <li>We are bullish on the stock which we believe can continue to outperform the price of bitcoin.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7bf6e4e906ea0634d29e16cfcb23d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>24K-Production/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Marathon Digital Holdings受益于比特币接近历史新高的强劲势头。</li><li>该公司报告称，比特币矿业产量增长强劲，预计随着产能的增加，产量将加速增长。</li><li>我们看好该股，我们相信该股的表现可以继续跑赢比特币的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>24K-Production/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(NASDAQ:MARA)&nbsp;has achieved juggernaut status as the leading Bitcoin mining stock benefiting from the ongoing crypto bull market. Shares are up over 360% this year and there is a strong case for more upside. The key is to put aside any outdated misconceptions about the industry and recognize that the company is generating massive revenue growth with earnings set to ramp up. Indeed, with the price of Bitcoin climbing back above $60k, MARA's own all-time high of $58 set back in early April is again within reach. In many ways, the outlook for Bitcoin mining and the broader crypto space has never been more positive. We are bullish on MARA expect shares to continue outperforming through 2022, gaining momentum as it captures a higher valuation premium.</p><p><blockquote>Marathon Digital Holdings Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：MARA）受益于持续的加密货币牛市，已成为比特币领先的矿业股。今年股价上涨了360%以上，并且有充分的理由进一步上涨。关键是抛开对该行业任何过时的误解，并认识到该公司正在产生巨大的收入增长，盈利将会增加。事实上，随着比特币的价格回升至6万美元以上，MARA在4月初创下的58美元的历史高点再次触手可及。在许多方面，比特币挖矿和更广泛的加密领域的前景从未如此乐观。我们看好MARA，预计其股价将在2022年继续跑赢大盘，并随着其获得更高的估值溢价而获得动力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae131d9493e92d6449acd5fe4aae4a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>MARA Strong Bitcoin Mining Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>MARA比特币矿业增长强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> The company provided a production update in early October with the headline of mining 1,252.4 Bitcoins in Q3, nearly double the 664.3 total mined in Q2. While the price of Bitcoin averaged around $42k in the quarter, the current market price of $60k implies a quarterly revenue run rate of $75 million that is expected to accelerate going forward as the company continues to expand its capacity. Marathon now holds 7,035 Bitcoin on its balance sheet with a value of over $422 million in addition to a separate cash position of $33 million.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在10月初提供了生产更新，标题是第三季度开采了1,252.4个比特币，几乎是第二季度开采总量664.3个的两倍。虽然比特币本季度的平均价格约为4.2万美元，但目前6万美元的市场价格意味着季度收入运行率为7500万美元，随着公司继续扩大产能，预计未来将加速增长。Marathon目前在其资产负债表上持有7,035份比特币，价值超过4.22亿美元，此外还有3300万美元的单独现金头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6280bcec6f8519e422b36b50f1ad702\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a reported 29,960 mining machines at the end of September and 2.7 EH/s in hash rate, the plan is to deploy a total of 133,000 miners by mid-2022 meaning the company's mining capacity will be 5x larger than its current level. Management noted some recent logistical issues have impacted shipping times to the company's facility in Hardin, Montana but reaffirmed its schedule of installations through next year.</p><p><blockquote>根据9月底报告的29,960台矿机和2.7 EH/s的哈希率，该计划是到2022年中期部署总共133,000名矿工，这意味着该公司的采矿能力将是目前水平的5倍。管理层指出，最近的一些物流问题影响了该公司位于蒙大拿州哈丁工厂的运输时间，但重申了明年的安装计划。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dda9d658a8671363d36682b39de88f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Assuming the entire fleet of miners was fully deployed right now, it is estimated Marathon would control around 8.4% of the global Bitcoin network based on the current network difficulty of around 158 EH/s compared to the current 2% as per the chart above. At 8.4%, Marathon could theoretically be mining close to 2,275 Bitcoins per month representing a market value of $137 million or $1.6 billion as an annualized run rate. These are the types of figures that help justify the company's current market cap near $5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>假设整个矿工机队现在已完全部署，根据当前约158 EH/s的网络难度，预计Marathon将控制全球比特币网络约8.4%的份额，而根据上图，目前为2%。理论上，Marathon每月可以开采近2,275个比特币，市值为1.37亿美元，年化运行率为16亿美元。这些数字有助于证明该公司目前近50亿美元的市值是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a148065410a5daa0467a904f95e710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> According to consensus estimates, the market is forecasting MARA 2021 revenue to reach $225 million along with positive EPS of $0.94 this year. Again, the real optimism is for next year as capacity and production ramps ups through the second half of 2022 with an estimate for revenue to approach $790 million and EPS of $4.16. Even considering the breathtaking rally in shares of MARA this year, we believe the current valuation metrics including a 1-year forward price to sales multiple of 6.2x and 12x P/E ratio on the 2022 consensus EPS are attractive. The reality is that there are few stocks in any sector generating this type of growth with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>根据普遍预测，市场预测MARA 2021年收入将达到2.25亿美元，今年每股收益为0.94美元。同样，真正乐观的是明年，随着2022年下半年产能和产量的增加，预计收入将接近7.9亿美元，每股收益将达到4.16美元。即使考虑到今年MARA股价的惊人上涨，我们也认为当前的估值指标（包括2022年共识每股收益的6.2倍和12倍市盈率）具有吸引力。现实情况是，任何行业中都很少有股票能够产生这种类型的增长，并且对比特币前景乐观。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6ee8bb568d2b57f5f9bee2201acb45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bullish on Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>看好比特币</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Compared to the \"crypto winter\" during the summer months when the price of Bitcoin briefly traded under $30k in what was a painful 50% correction, the sentiment has decisively turned positive. Our sense is that many of the long-term drivers for Bitcoin including the growing recognition at the institutional level of cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class along with ongoing adoption for payments continue to represent fundamental tailwinds that can drive the price of Bitcoin higher.</p><p><blockquote>与夏季的“加密货币冬天”相比，当时比特币的价格短暂低于3万美元，痛苦地回调了50%，市场情绪已经决定性地转向积极。我们的感觉是，比特币的许多长期驱动因素，包括机构层面对加密货币作为替代资产类别的日益认可以及支付的持续采用，继续代表着可能推高比特币价格的基本推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b24b52a2b30b155f858d4c78704db52c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a technical standpoint, the selloff likely helped to consolidate the multi-year gains in Bitcoin following a particularly strong 2020 which now establishes a stronger base of support for the next leg higher. While Bitcoin is still a few percentage points below its April all-time high of $65k, there are some good reasons to believe a breakout is on tap.</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度来看，抛售可能有助于巩固比特币在经历了特别强劲的2020年之后的多年涨幅，现在为下一轮上涨奠定了更强大的支撑基础。尽管比特币仍比4月份6.5万美元的历史高点低几个百分点，但有一些充分的理由相信即将突破。</blockquote></p><p> First, reports are that a&nbsp;Bitcoin ETF&nbsp;linked to traded Bitcoin futures is set to begin trading this week through the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF(NYSEARCA:BITO). The expectation is for many other Bitcoin exchange-traded products to be approved still this year which can be interpreted as an apparent stamp of approval by regulators that cryptocurrencies are here to stay. The potential that the new instruments funnel more capital into the space can directly drive the price of Bitcoin further.</p><p><blockquote>首先，有报道称，与比特币期货交易挂钩的比特币ETF将于本周通过ProShares比特币策略ETF（NYSEARCA：BITO）开始交易。预计许多其他比特币交易所交易产品今年仍将获得批准，这可以被解释为监管机构明显批准加密货币将继续存在。新工具将更多资本注入该领域的潜力可能会直接进一步推高比特币的价格。</blockquote></p><p> We have a year-ahead price target of $100,000 for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) which is about 60% higher than the current level. Our base case is that even with some expected volatility and pullbacks on profit-taking, the trend higher can be accelerated through Q4 with a repeat of the action from 2020. While the run in Bitcoin likely had some doubters in Q1 this year, its ability to brush aside the headwinds between concerns over environmental impacts and global regulation only helps reinforce the long-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>我们对比特币(BTC-USD)的未来一年目标价为100,000美元，比当前水平高出约60%。我们的基本情况是，即使存在一些预期的波动和获利回吐，随着2020年的重复，第四季度的上涨趋势也可能会加速。尽管比特币今年第一季度的表现可能引起了一些怀疑，但它能够抛开对环境影响的担忧和全球监管之间的阻力，只会有助于增强长期前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba484e07c8f9f005525cba220d0c34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>finviz.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>finviz.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The fund manager ARK Invest has published research suggesting a growing allocation by institutional investors towards Bitcoin could impact the price between $200,000 and $500,000 long term. The group believes just a 1% allocation towards Bitcoin by all groups of institutional investors would incrementally add $100,000 to the price of Bitcoin. We expect the wider availability of Bitcoin and crypto investment products to gradually become a staple of diversified portfolios for all investors. In the near term, in our view, the $100k price level will eventually act as a magnet for traders to target through momentum based on the psychological importance of the round number.</p><p><blockquote>基金管理公司ARK Invest发表的研究表明，机构投资者对比特币的配置不断增加，可能会长期影响20万至50万美元的价格。该组织认为，所有机构投资者团体仅向比特币分配1%的资金，比特币的价格就会增加10万美元。我们预计比特币和加密货币投资产品的更广泛使用将逐渐成为所有投资者多元化投资组合的主要内容。在我们看来，短期内，10万美元的价格水平最终将成为交易者根据整数的心理重要性通过动量来瞄准的磁铁。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9f6776e72cad8d908f9b9c270810e92\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: Ark Invest</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：方舟投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>MARA Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>MARA股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> As it relates to MARA, the higher the price of Bitcoin directly translates into higher revenue and earnings potential. We expect Bitcoin miners to outperform the crypto price to the upside based on the concept of operating leverage. Simply put, higher revenues can correspond to an even higher impact to operating income and earnings. Marathon's advantage is both its current scale with a leg up on other miners attempting to secure production capacity through next year. The company's low cost of electricity with an estimated production cost of $5,612 per Bitcoin highlights the profitability potential. MARA's efforts at sustainability with a plan to be 100% carbon neutral by the end of 2022 is a benchmark for the entire industry.</p><p><blockquote>就MARA而言，比特币的价格越高，直接转化为更高的收入和盈利潜力。基于运营杠杆的概念，我们预计比特币矿商的表现将优于加密货币价格。简而言之，更高的收入可能会对营业收入和收益产生更大的影响。马拉松的优势在于其目前的规模和其他试图确保明年产能的矿商的优势。该公司的电力成本较低，估计每比特币的生产成本为5,612美元，凸显了盈利潜力。MARA在可持续发展方面的努力是整个行业的标杆，计划到2022年底实现100%碳中和。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f2a439d461073969566bfb6372e5a1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To forecast how many Bitcoins and revenue MARA will be generating by this time next year, we need to consider not only the price of Bitcoin but also the Bitcoin network difficulty. It's understood that as more mining machines go online, the network hash rate will climb and thereby dilute each existing miners' share of the Bitcoin mining potential. Over the course of a year, 52,560 Bitcoin blocks are awarded by the network with each block representing 6.25 BTC. The 328,500 newly minted Bitcoin mined over the course of a year is the market potential MARA is attempting to capture.</p><p><blockquote>要预测明年这个时候MARA将产生多少比特币和收入，我们不仅需要考虑比特币的价格，还需要考虑比特币网络的难度。据了解，随着更多矿机上线，网络哈希率将攀升，从而稀释每个现有矿工在比特币挖矿潜力中的份额。在一年的时间里，该网络授予了52,560个比特币区块，每个区块代表6.25 BTC。一年内新开采的328,500辆比特币是MARA试图抓住的市场潜力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We mentioned the company's guidance for 13.3 EH/s represents about 8.4% of the current global hash rate. In reality, by the time the full fleet of mining machines is deployed, it's likely the network difficulty will be above 200 EH/s meaning the 8.4% share will be reduced down towards 6.7% or lower. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to how this rate will progress although the general consensus is that the network difficultly will trend higher. From the chart below, we can observe a large drop in the global hash rate in mid-2021 which coincided with Chinese miners going offline as mining was banned in the country. The other dynamic at play is that some of the oldest mining machines online currently go past their lifecycle and need to be replaced generating a regular turnover.</p><p><blockquote>我们提到该公司13.3 EH/s的指导约占当前全球哈希率的8.4%。事实上，当所有矿机部署完毕时，网络难度可能会超过200 EH/s，这意味着8.4%的份额将降至6.7%或更低。尽管普遍的共识是网络很难走高，但这一速度将如何发展还存在很大的不确定性。从下图中，我们可以观察到2021年年中全球哈希率大幅下降，恰逢中国矿商因该国禁止采矿而下线。另一个因素是，一些最古老的在线矿机目前已经过了生命周期，需要更换，以产生定期的营业额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22dda2e73253a8137117a0f57124b926\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We are extrapolating how much Marathon's revenue run rate could be by the second half of next year when it fully deploys all announced mining machine purchases. For example, with a hash rate capacity of 13.3 EH/s by mid-2022, assuming a network difficultly level of 215 EH/s at that point, MARA would control 6.2% of the global hash rate and be able to mine approximately 1,693 Bitcoins in a single month. At the current market price of $60k, the monthly revenue would approach $102 million which is annualized to $1.219 billion. By this measure, we can state that shares of MARA are trading at a forward price to sales multiple of 4.3x based on its expected annualized revenue run rate by next year against the current market cap for the stock at $5.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我们正在推断，到明年下半年，当马拉松全面部署所有已宣布的矿机采购时，其收入运行率可能会达到多少。例如，到2022年年中，哈希速率容量为13.3 EH/s，假设网络难度水平为215 EH/s，MARA将控制全球哈希速率的6.2%，并能够在一个月内挖掘大约1,693个比特币。以目前6万美元的市场价格计算，月收入将接近1.02亿美元，年化收入为12.19亿美元。通过这一衡量标准，我们可以说，根据明年的预期年化收入运行率，MARA股票的远期市销率为4.3倍，而该股目前的市值为52亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a91df4ee0c4ed3b80e6e4733b6247d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: author estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In our view, MARA is undervalued at its current level in the context of the Bitcoin pricing environment and growth outlook. A forward P/S multiple closer to 5x would better reflect an appropriate growth premium and the company's positive outlook in our opinion. By this measure, at a constant BTC price of $60k and an outlook for the hash rate to trend towards 215 EH/s, we believe MARA should be valued closer to $61.50 as a near-term price target.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，在比特币定价环境和增长前景的背景下，MARA目前的估值被低估。我们认为，接近5倍的远期市盈率将更好地反映适当的增长溢价和公司的积极前景。按照这一标准，在BTC价格保持在6万美元的情况下，哈希率有望达到215 EH/s，我们认为MARA的近期目标价应接近61.50美元。</blockquote></p><p> Going a step further, with an outlook for Bitcoin to potentially reach $100k by next year, we see shares of MARA trending towards $100. From the table above, the Bitcoin market price of $100k at a 215 EH/s hash rate for next year implies MARA is currently trading at a forward P/S of 2.6x. The stock would need to climb at least 92% from the current level to maintain the valuation parity of 5x based on our model.</p><p><blockquote>更进一步，预计比特币明年可能达到10万美元，我们认为MARA的股价将趋向100美元。从上表来看，明年比特币市场价格为10万美元，哈希率为215 EH/s，这意味着MARA目前的远期市盈率为2.6倍。根据我们的模型，该股需要从当前水平上涨至少92%才能维持5倍的估值平价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Big Picture</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大图</b></blockquote></p><p> The Bitcoin mining industry continues to mature with more and more investors beginning to recognize the intrinsic value the leading stocks are generating. Marathon Digital as a U.S.-based leader remains one of the most exciting companies in the segment in the middle of a transformative year. We are encouraged by the recent operating and financial results and expect the company to continue executing successfully. We rate shares of MARA as a buy with a bullish price target of $100 per share in a scenario where Bitcoin trends towards $100k.</p><p><blockquote>随着越来越多的投资者开始认识到龙头股所产生的内在价值，比特币采矿业不断成熟。Marathon Digital作为美国的领导者，在变革的一年中仍然是该领域最令人兴奋的公司之一。我们对最近的运营和财务业绩感到鼓舞，并预计公司将继续成功执行。在比特币股价趋于10万美元的情况下，我们将MARA股票评级为买入，看涨目标价为每股100美元。</blockquote></p><p> Longer-term, the company's scale and growing balance sheet Bitcoin position will offer it more flexibility to expand into related crypto services while adding to its mining capacity. For the upcoming quarters, the Q3 earnings report will provide an opportunity to take a look at the cost structure as production accelerates. Monitoring points include the monthly updates while it will be important for the company to remain on schedule with the mining machines deliveries and deployments.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，该公司的规模和不断增长的资产负债表比特币地位将为其提供更大的灵活性，以扩展到相关的加密服务，同时增加其采矿能力。对于未来几个季度，第三季度收益报告将提供一个机会来了解随着生产加速的成本结构。监控点包括每月更新，而公司保持采矿机交付和部署的进度非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> It goes without saying that the main risk here continues to be the price of Bitcoin. While we are bullish, shares are of MARA will be highly sensitive to the cryptocurrency market price. A selloff in BTC under $50k would likely drive some renewed bearish sentiment and higher volatility. The regulatory landscape also remains uncertain. Efforts by some U.S. states to limit Bitcoin mining along with environmental impact concerns can generate headlines that pressure the segment lower. For 2022, we believe the market will begin to look more closely at earnings and cash flows beyond the high-level themes and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>不言而喻，这里的主要风险仍然是比特币的价格。虽然我们看好，但MARA的股票将对加密货币市场价格高度敏感。BTC跌破5万美元可能会引发新的看跌情绪和更高的波动性。监管格局也仍然不确定。美国一些州限制比特币采矿的努力以及对环境影响的担忧可能会成为头条新闻，给该行业带来下行压力。对于2022年，我们认为市场将开始更密切地关注高层主题和势头之外的盈利和现金流。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Marathon Digital Stock: More Upside With A Breakout In Bitcoin<blockquote>马拉松数字股票：比特币突破带来更多上涨空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarathon Digital Stock: More Upside With A Breakout In Bitcoin<blockquote>马拉松数字股票：比特币突破带来更多上涨空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-21 15:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Marathon Digital Holdings is benefiting from the strong momentum in bitcoin approaching an all-time high.</li>  <li>The company has reported strong bitcoin mining production growth which is expected to accelerate as it increases capacity.</li>  <li>We are bullish on the stock which we believe can continue to outperform the price of bitcoin.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d7bf6e4e906ea0634d29e16cfcb23d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>24K-Production/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Marathon Digital Holdings受益于比特币接近历史新高的强劲势头。</li><li>该公司报告称，比特币矿业产量增长强劲，预计随着产能的增加，产量将加速增长。</li><li>我们看好该股，我们相信该股的表现可以继续跑赢比特币的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>24K-Production/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(NASDAQ:MARA)&nbsp;has achieved juggernaut status as the leading Bitcoin mining stock benefiting from the ongoing crypto bull market. Shares are up over 360% this year and there is a strong case for more upside. The key is to put aside any outdated misconceptions about the industry and recognize that the company is generating massive revenue growth with earnings set to ramp up. Indeed, with the price of Bitcoin climbing back above $60k, MARA's own all-time high of $58 set back in early April is again within reach. In many ways, the outlook for Bitcoin mining and the broader crypto space has never been more positive. We are bullish on MARA expect shares to continue outperforming through 2022, gaining momentum as it captures a higher valuation premium.</p><p><blockquote>Marathon Digital Holdings Inc（纳斯达克股票代码：MARA）受益于持续的加密货币牛市，已成为比特币领先的矿业股。今年股价上涨了360%以上，并且有充分的理由进一步上涨。关键是抛开对该行业任何过时的误解，并认识到该公司正在产生巨大的收入增长，盈利将会增加。事实上，随着比特币的价格回升至6万美元以上，MARA在4月初创下的58美元的历史高点再次触手可及。在许多方面，比特币挖矿和更广泛的加密领域的前景从未如此乐观。我们看好MARA，预计其股价将在2022年继续跑赢大盘，并随着其获得更高的估值溢价而获得动力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae131d9493e92d6449acd5fe4aae4a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"245\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>MARA Strong Bitcoin Mining Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>MARA比特币矿业增长强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> The company provided a production update in early October with the headline of mining 1,252.4 Bitcoins in Q3, nearly double the 664.3 total mined in Q2. While the price of Bitcoin averaged around $42k in the quarter, the current market price of $60k implies a quarterly revenue run rate of $75 million that is expected to accelerate going forward as the company continues to expand its capacity. Marathon now holds 7,035 Bitcoin on its balance sheet with a value of over $422 million in addition to a separate cash position of $33 million.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在10月初提供了生产更新，标题是第三季度开采了1,252.4个比特币，几乎是第二季度开采总量664.3个的两倍。虽然比特币本季度的平均价格约为4.2万美元，但目前6万美元的市场价格意味着季度收入运行率为7500万美元，随着公司继续扩大产能，预计未来将加速增长。Marathon目前在其资产负债表上持有7,035份比特币，价值超过4.22亿美元，此外还有3300万美元的单独现金头寸。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6280bcec6f8519e422b36b50f1ad702\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a reported 29,960 mining machines at the end of September and 2.7 EH/s in hash rate, the plan is to deploy a total of 133,000 miners by mid-2022 meaning the company's mining capacity will be 5x larger than its current level. Management noted some recent logistical issues have impacted shipping times to the company's facility in Hardin, Montana but reaffirmed its schedule of installations through next year.</p><p><blockquote>根据9月底报告的29,960台矿机和2.7 EH/s的哈希率，该计划是到2022年中期部署总共133,000名矿工，这意味着该公司的采矿能力将是目前水平的5倍。管理层指出，最近的一些物流问题影响了该公司位于蒙大拿州哈丁工厂的运输时间，但重申了明年的安装计划。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3dda9d658a8671363d36682b39de88f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Assuming the entire fleet of miners was fully deployed right now, it is estimated Marathon would control around 8.4% of the global Bitcoin network based on the current network difficulty of around 158 EH/s compared to the current 2% as per the chart above. At 8.4%, Marathon could theoretically be mining close to 2,275 Bitcoins per month representing a market value of $137 million or $1.6 billion as an annualized run rate. These are the types of figures that help justify the company's current market cap near $5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>假设整个矿工机队现在已完全部署，根据当前约158 EH/s的网络难度，预计Marathon将控制全球比特币网络约8.4%的份额，而根据上图，目前为2%。理论上，Marathon每月可以开采近2,275个比特币，市值为1.37亿美元，年化运行率为16亿美元。这些数字有助于证明该公司目前近50亿美元的市值是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a148065410a5daa0467a904f95e710\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"344\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> According to consensus estimates, the market is forecasting MARA 2021 revenue to reach $225 million along with positive EPS of $0.94 this year. Again, the real optimism is for next year as capacity and production ramps ups through the second half of 2022 with an estimate for revenue to approach $790 million and EPS of $4.16. Even considering the breathtaking rally in shares of MARA this year, we believe the current valuation metrics including a 1-year forward price to sales multiple of 6.2x and 12x P/E ratio on the 2022 consensus EPS are attractive. The reality is that there are few stocks in any sector generating this type of growth with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>根据普遍预测，市场预测MARA 2021年收入将达到2.25亿美元，今年每股收益为0.94美元。同样，真正乐观的是明年，随着2022年下半年产能和产量的增加，预计收入将接近7.9亿美元，每股收益将达到4.16美元。即使考虑到今年MARA股价的惊人上涨，我们也认为当前的估值指标（包括2022年共识每股收益的6.2倍和12倍市盈率）具有吸引力。现实情况是，任何行业中都很少有股票能够产生这种类型的增长，并且对比特币前景乐观。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6ee8bb568d2b57f5f9bee2201acb45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"272\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bullish on Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>看好比特币</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Compared to the \"crypto winter\" during the summer months when the price of Bitcoin briefly traded under $30k in what was a painful 50% correction, the sentiment has decisively turned positive. Our sense is that many of the long-term drivers for Bitcoin including the growing recognition at the institutional level of cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class along with ongoing adoption for payments continue to represent fundamental tailwinds that can drive the price of Bitcoin higher.</p><p><blockquote>与夏季的“加密货币冬天”相比，当时比特币的价格短暂低于3万美元，痛苦地回调了50%，市场情绪已经决定性地转向积极。我们的感觉是，比特币的许多长期驱动因素，包括机构层面对加密货币作为替代资产类别的日益认可以及支付的持续采用，继续代表着可能推高比特币价格的基本推动力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b24b52a2b30b155f858d4c78704db52c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"328\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From a technical standpoint, the selloff likely helped to consolidate the multi-year gains in Bitcoin following a particularly strong 2020 which now establishes a stronger base of support for the next leg higher. While Bitcoin is still a few percentage points below its April all-time high of $65k, there are some good reasons to believe a breakout is on tap.</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度来看，抛售可能有助于巩固比特币在经历了特别强劲的2020年之后的多年涨幅，现在为下一轮上涨奠定了更强大的支撑基础。尽管比特币仍比4月份6.5万美元的历史高点低几个百分点，但有一些充分的理由相信即将突破。</blockquote></p><p> First, reports are that a&nbsp;Bitcoin ETF&nbsp;linked to traded Bitcoin futures is set to begin trading this week through the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF(NYSEARCA:BITO). The expectation is for many other Bitcoin exchange-traded products to be approved still this year which can be interpreted as an apparent stamp of approval by regulators that cryptocurrencies are here to stay. The potential that the new instruments funnel more capital into the space can directly drive the price of Bitcoin further.</p><p><blockquote>首先，有报道称，与比特币期货交易挂钩的比特币ETF将于本周通过ProShares比特币策略ETF（NYSEARCA：BITO）开始交易。预计许多其他比特币交易所交易产品今年仍将获得批准，这可以被解释为监管机构明显批准加密货币将继续存在。新工具将更多资本注入该领域的潜力可能会直接进一步推高比特币的价格。</blockquote></p><p> We have a year-ahead price target of $100,000 for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) which is about 60% higher than the current level. Our base case is that even with some expected volatility and pullbacks on profit-taking, the trend higher can be accelerated through Q4 with a repeat of the action from 2020. While the run in Bitcoin likely had some doubters in Q1 this year, its ability to brush aside the headwinds between concerns over environmental impacts and global regulation only helps reinforce the long-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>我们对比特币(BTC-USD)的未来一年目标价为100,000美元，比当前水平高出约60%。我们的基本情况是，即使存在一些预期的波动和获利回吐，随着2020年的重复，第四季度的上涨趋势也可能会加速。尽管比特币今年第一季度的表现可能引起了一些怀疑，但它能够抛开对环境影响的担忧和全球监管之间的阻力，只会有助于增强长期前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fba484e07c8f9f005525cba220d0c34\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"267\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>finviz.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>finviz.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The fund manager ARK Invest has published research suggesting a growing allocation by institutional investors towards Bitcoin could impact the price between $200,000 and $500,000 long term. The group believes just a 1% allocation towards Bitcoin by all groups of institutional investors would incrementally add $100,000 to the price of Bitcoin. We expect the wider availability of Bitcoin and crypto investment products to gradually become a staple of diversified portfolios for all investors. In the near term, in our view, the $100k price level will eventually act as a magnet for traders to target through momentum based on the psychological importance of the round number.</p><p><blockquote>基金管理公司ARK Invest发表的研究表明，机构投资者对比特币的配置不断增加，可能会长期影响20万至50万美元的价格。该组织认为，所有机构投资者团体仅向比特币分配1%的资金，比特币的价格就会增加10万美元。我们预计比特币和加密货币投资产品的更广泛使用将逐渐成为所有投资者多元化投资组合的主要内容。在我们看来，短期内，10万美元的价格水平最终将成为交易者根据整数的心理重要性通过动量来瞄准的磁铁。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9f6776e72cad8d908f9b9c270810e92\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: Ark Invest</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：方舟投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>MARA Stock Forecast</b></p><p><blockquote><b>MARA股票预测</b></blockquote></p><p> As it relates to MARA, the higher the price of Bitcoin directly translates into higher revenue and earnings potential. We expect Bitcoin miners to outperform the crypto price to the upside based on the concept of operating leverage. Simply put, higher revenues can correspond to an even higher impact to operating income and earnings. Marathon's advantage is both its current scale with a leg up on other miners attempting to secure production capacity through next year. The company's low cost of electricity with an estimated production cost of $5,612 per Bitcoin highlights the profitability potential. MARA's efforts at sustainability with a plan to be 100% carbon neutral by the end of 2022 is a benchmark for the entire industry.</p><p><blockquote>就MARA而言，比特币的价格越高，直接转化为更高的收入和盈利潜力。基于运营杠杆的概念，我们预计比特币矿商的表现将优于加密货币价格。简而言之，更高的收入可能会对营业收入和收益产生更大的影响。马拉松的优势在于其目前的规模和其他试图确保明年产能的矿商的优势。该公司的电力成本较低，估计每比特币的生产成本为5,612美元，凸显了盈利潜力。MARA在可持续发展方面的努力是整个行业的标杆，计划到2022年底实现100%碳中和。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f2a439d461073969566bfb6372e5a1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"338\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: company IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> To forecast how many Bitcoins and revenue MARA will be generating by this time next year, we need to consider not only the price of Bitcoin but also the Bitcoin network difficulty. It's understood that as more mining machines go online, the network hash rate will climb and thereby dilute each existing miners' share of the Bitcoin mining potential. Over the course of a year, 52,560 Bitcoin blocks are awarded by the network with each block representing 6.25 BTC. The 328,500 newly minted Bitcoin mined over the course of a year is the market potential MARA is attempting to capture.</p><p><blockquote>要预测明年这个时候MARA将产生多少比特币和收入，我们不仅需要考虑比特币的价格，还需要考虑比特币网络的难度。据了解，随着更多矿机上线，网络哈希率将攀升，从而稀释每个现有矿工在比特币挖矿潜力中的份额。在一年的时间里，该网络授予了52,560个比特币区块，每个区块代表6.25 BTC。一年内新开采的328,500辆比特币是MARA试图抓住的市场潜力。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> We mentioned the company's guidance for 13.3 EH/s represents about 8.4% of the current global hash rate. In reality, by the time the full fleet of mining machines is deployed, it's likely the network difficulty will be above 200 EH/s meaning the 8.4% share will be reduced down towards 6.7% or lower. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to how this rate will progress although the general consensus is that the network difficultly will trend higher. From the chart below, we can observe a large drop in the global hash rate in mid-2021 which coincided with Chinese miners going offline as mining was banned in the country. The other dynamic at play is that some of the oldest mining machines online currently go past their lifecycle and need to be replaced generating a regular turnover.</p><p><blockquote>我们提到该公司13.3 EH/s的指导约占当前全球哈希率的8.4%。事实上，当所有矿机部署完毕时，网络难度可能会超过200 EH/s，这意味着8.4%的份额将降至6.7%或更低。尽管普遍的共识是网络很难走高，但这一速度将如何发展还存在很大的不确定性。从下图中，我们可以观察到2021年年中全球哈希率大幅下降，恰逢中国矿商因该国禁止采矿而下线。另一个因素是，一些最古老的在线矿机目前已经过了生命周期，需要更换，以产生定期的营业额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22dda2e73253a8137117a0f57124b926\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We are extrapolating how much Marathon's revenue run rate could be by the second half of next year when it fully deploys all announced mining machine purchases. For example, with a hash rate capacity of 13.3 EH/s by mid-2022, assuming a network difficultly level of 215 EH/s at that point, MARA would control 6.2% of the global hash rate and be able to mine approximately 1,693 Bitcoins in a single month. At the current market price of $60k, the monthly revenue would approach $102 million which is annualized to $1.219 billion. By this measure, we can state that shares of MARA are trading at a forward price to sales multiple of 4.3x based on its expected annualized revenue run rate by next year against the current market cap for the stock at $5.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我们正在推断，到明年下半年，当马拉松全面部署所有已宣布的矿机采购时，其收入运行率可能会达到多少。例如，到2022年年中，哈希速率容量为13.3 EH/s，假设网络难度水平为215 EH/s，MARA将控制全球哈希速率的6.2%，并能够在一个月内挖掘大约1,693个比特币。以目前6万美元的市场价格计算，月收入将接近1.02亿美元，年化收入为12.19亿美元。通过这一衡量标准，我们可以说，根据明年的预期年化收入运行率，MARA股票的远期市销率为4.3倍，而该股目前的市值为52亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a91df4ee0c4ed3b80e6e4733b6247d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>source: author estimates</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者估计</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In our view, MARA is undervalued at its current level in the context of the Bitcoin pricing environment and growth outlook. A forward P/S multiple closer to 5x would better reflect an appropriate growth premium and the company's positive outlook in our opinion. By this measure, at a constant BTC price of $60k and an outlook for the hash rate to trend towards 215 EH/s, we believe MARA should be valued closer to $61.50 as a near-term price target.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为，在比特币定价环境和增长前景的背景下，MARA目前的估值被低估。我们认为，接近5倍的远期市盈率将更好地反映适当的增长溢价和公司的积极前景。按照这一标准，在BTC价格保持在6万美元的情况下，哈希率有望达到215 EH/s，我们认为MARA的近期目标价应接近61.50美元。</blockquote></p><p> Going a step further, with an outlook for Bitcoin to potentially reach $100k by next year, we see shares of MARA trending towards $100. From the table above, the Bitcoin market price of $100k at a 215 EH/s hash rate for next year implies MARA is currently trading at a forward P/S of 2.6x. The stock would need to climb at least 92% from the current level to maintain the valuation parity of 5x based on our model.</p><p><blockquote>更进一步，预计比特币明年可能达到10万美元，我们认为MARA的股价将趋向100美元。从上表来看，明年比特币市场价格为10万美元，哈希率为215 EH/s，这意味着MARA目前的远期市盈率为2.6倍。根据我们的模型，该股需要从当前水平上涨至少92%才能维持5倍的估值平价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Big Picture</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大图</b></blockquote></p><p> The Bitcoin mining industry continues to mature with more and more investors beginning to recognize the intrinsic value the leading stocks are generating. Marathon Digital as a U.S.-based leader remains one of the most exciting companies in the segment in the middle of a transformative year. We are encouraged by the recent operating and financial results and expect the company to continue executing successfully. We rate shares of MARA as a buy with a bullish price target of $100 per share in a scenario where Bitcoin trends towards $100k.</p><p><blockquote>随着越来越多的投资者开始认识到龙头股所产生的内在价值，比特币采矿业不断成熟。Marathon Digital作为美国的领导者，在变革的一年中仍然是该领域最令人兴奋的公司之一。我们对最近的运营和财务业绩感到鼓舞，并预计公司将继续成功执行。在比特币股价趋于10万美元的情况下，我们将MARA股票评级为买入，看涨目标价为每股100美元。</blockquote></p><p> Longer-term, the company's scale and growing balance sheet Bitcoin position will offer it more flexibility to expand into related crypto services while adding to its mining capacity. For the upcoming quarters, the Q3 earnings report will provide an opportunity to take a look at the cost structure as production accelerates. Monitoring points include the monthly updates while it will be important for the company to remain on schedule with the mining machines deliveries and deployments.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，该公司的规模和不断增长的资产负债表比特币地位将为其提供更大的灵活性，以扩展到相关的加密服务，同时增加其采矿能力。对于未来几个季度，第三季度收益报告将提供一个机会来了解随着生产加速的成本结构。监控点包括每月更新，而公司保持采矿机交付和部署的进度非常重要。</blockquote></p><p> It goes without saying that the main risk here continues to be the price of Bitcoin. While we are bullish, shares are of MARA will be highly sensitive to the cryptocurrency market price. A selloff in BTC under $50k would likely drive some renewed bearish sentiment and higher volatility. The regulatory landscape also remains uncertain. Efforts by some U.S. states to limit Bitcoin mining along with environmental impact concerns can generate headlines that pressure the segment lower. For 2022, we believe the market will begin to look more closely at earnings and cash flows beyond the high-level themes and momentum.</p><p><blockquote>不言而喻，这里的主要风险仍然是比特币的价格。虽然我们看好，但MARA的股票将对加密货币市场价格高度敏感。BTC跌破5万美元可能会引发新的看跌情绪和更高的波动性。监管格局也仍然不确定。美国一些州限制比特币采矿的努力以及对环境影响的担忧可能会成为头条新闻，给该行业带来下行压力。对于2022年，我们认为市场将开始更密切地关注高层主题和势头之外的盈利和现金流。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460632-marathon-digital-more-upside-with-breakout-in-bitcoin\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3cdd0b2f46028be0fdb985c3d97141c","relate_stocks":{"MARA":"MARA Holdings"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4460632-marathon-digital-more-upside-with-breakout-in-bitcoin","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114856613","content_text":"Summary\n\nMarathon Digital Holdings is benefiting from the strong momentum in bitcoin approaching an all-time high.\nThe company has reported strong bitcoin mining production growth which is expected to accelerate as it increases capacity.\nWe are bullish on the stock which we believe can continue to outperform the price of bitcoin.\n\n24K-Production/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nMarathon Digital Holdings Inc(NASDAQ:MARA) has achieved juggernaut status as the leading Bitcoin mining stock benefiting from the ongoing crypto bull market. Shares are up over 360% this year and there is a strong case for more upside. The key is to put aside any outdated misconceptions about the industry and recognize that the company is generating massive revenue growth with earnings set to ramp up. Indeed, with the price of Bitcoin climbing back above $60k, MARA's own all-time high of $58 set back in early April is again within reach. In many ways, the outlook for Bitcoin mining and the broader crypto space has never been more positive. We are bullish on MARA expect shares to continue outperforming through 2022, gaining momentum as it captures a higher valuation premium.\nSeeking Alpha\nMARA Strong Bitcoin Mining Growth\nThe company provided a production update in early October with the headline of mining 1,252.4 Bitcoins in Q3, nearly double the 664.3 total mined in Q2. While the price of Bitcoin averaged around $42k in the quarter, the current market price of $60k implies a quarterly revenue run rate of $75 million that is expected to accelerate going forward as the company continues to expand its capacity. Marathon now holds 7,035 Bitcoin on its balance sheet with a value of over $422 million in addition to a separate cash position of $33 million.\nsource: company IR\nFrom a reported 29,960 mining machines at the end of September and 2.7 EH/s in hash rate, the plan is to deploy a total of 133,000 miners by mid-2022 meaning the company's mining capacity will be 5x larger than its current level. Management noted some recent logistical issues have impacted shipping times to the company's facility in Hardin, Montana but reaffirmed its schedule of installations through next year.\nsource: company IR\nAssuming the entire fleet of miners was fully deployed right now, it is estimated Marathon would control around 8.4% of the global Bitcoin network based on the current network difficulty of around 158 EH/s compared to the current 2% as per the chart above. At 8.4%, Marathon could theoretically be mining close to 2,275 Bitcoins per month representing a market value of $137 million or $1.6 billion as an annualized run rate. These are the types of figures that help justify the company's current market cap near $5 billion.\nsource: company IR\nAccording to consensus estimates, the market is forecasting MARA 2021 revenue to reach $225 million along with positive EPS of $0.94 this year. Again, the real optimism is for next year as capacity and production ramps ups through the second half of 2022 with an estimate for revenue to approach $790 million and EPS of $4.16. Even considering the breathtaking rally in shares of MARA this year, we believe the current valuation metrics including a 1-year forward price to sales multiple of 6.2x and 12x P/E ratio on the 2022 consensus EPS are attractive. The reality is that there are few stocks in any sector generating this type of growth with a bullish outlook for Bitcoin.\nSeeking Alpha\nBullish on Bitcoin\nCompared to the \"crypto winter\" during the summer months when the price of Bitcoin briefly traded under $30k in what was a painful 50% correction, the sentiment has decisively turned positive. Our sense is that many of the long-term drivers for Bitcoin including the growing recognition at the institutional level of cryptocurrencies as an alternative asset class along with ongoing adoption for payments continue to represent fundamental tailwinds that can drive the price of Bitcoin higher.\nsource: company IR\nFrom a technical standpoint, the selloff likely helped to consolidate the multi-year gains in Bitcoin following a particularly strong 2020 which now establishes a stronger base of support for the next leg higher. While Bitcoin is still a few percentage points below its April all-time high of $65k, there are some good reasons to believe a breakout is on tap.\nFirst, reports are that a Bitcoin ETF linked to traded Bitcoin futures is set to begin trading this week through the ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF(NYSEARCA:BITO). The expectation is for many other Bitcoin exchange-traded products to be approved still this year which can be interpreted as an apparent stamp of approval by regulators that cryptocurrencies are here to stay. The potential that the new instruments funnel more capital into the space can directly drive the price of Bitcoin further.\nWe have a year-ahead price target of $100,000 for Bitcoin (BTC-USD) which is about 60% higher than the current level. Our base case is that even with some expected volatility and pullbacks on profit-taking, the trend higher can be accelerated through Q4 with a repeat of the action from 2020. While the run in Bitcoin likely had some doubters in Q1 this year, its ability to brush aside the headwinds between concerns over environmental impacts and global regulation only helps reinforce the long-term outlook.\nfinviz.com\nThe fund manager ARK Invest has published research suggesting a growing allocation by institutional investors towards Bitcoin could impact the price between $200,000 and $500,000 long term. The group believes just a 1% allocation towards Bitcoin by all groups of institutional investors would incrementally add $100,000 to the price of Bitcoin. We expect the wider availability of Bitcoin and crypto investment products to gradually become a staple of diversified portfolios for all investors. In the near term, in our view, the $100k price level will eventually act as a magnet for traders to target through momentum based on the psychological importance of the round number.\nsource: Ark Invest\nMARA Stock Forecast\nAs it relates to MARA, the higher the price of Bitcoin directly translates into higher revenue and earnings potential. We expect Bitcoin miners to outperform the crypto price to the upside based on the concept of operating leverage. Simply put, higher revenues can correspond to an even higher impact to operating income and earnings. Marathon's advantage is both its current scale with a leg up on other miners attempting to secure production capacity through next year. The company's low cost of electricity with an estimated production cost of $5,612 per Bitcoin highlights the profitability potential. MARA's efforts at sustainability with a plan to be 100% carbon neutral by the end of 2022 is a benchmark for the entire industry.\nsource: company IR\nTo forecast how many Bitcoins and revenue MARA will be generating by this time next year, we need to consider not only the price of Bitcoin but also the Bitcoin network difficulty. It's understood that as more mining machines go online, the network hash rate will climb and thereby dilute each existing miners' share of the Bitcoin mining potential. Over the course of a year, 52,560 Bitcoin blocks are awarded by the network with each block representing 6.25 BTC. The 328,500 newly minted Bitcoin mined over the course of a year is the market potential MARA is attempting to capture.\nWe mentioned the company's guidance for 13.3 EH/s represents about 8.4% of the current global hash rate. In reality, by the time the full fleet of mining machines is deployed, it's likely the network difficulty will be above 200 EH/s meaning the 8.4% share will be reduced down towards 6.7% or lower. There is a great deal of uncertainty as to how this rate will progress although the general consensus is that the network difficultly will trend higher. From the chart below, we can observe a large drop in the global hash rate in mid-2021 which coincided with Chinese miners going offline as mining was banned in the country. The other dynamic at play is that some of the oldest mining machines online currently go past their lifecycle and need to be replaced generating a regular turnover.\nData by YCharts\nWe are extrapolating how much Marathon's revenue run rate could be by the second half of next year when it fully deploys all announced mining machine purchases. For example, with a hash rate capacity of 13.3 EH/s by mid-2022, assuming a network difficultly level of 215 EH/s at that point, MARA would control 6.2% of the global hash rate and be able to mine approximately 1,693 Bitcoins in a single month. At the current market price of $60k, the monthly revenue would approach $102 million which is annualized to $1.219 billion. By this measure, we can state that shares of MARA are trading at a forward price to sales multiple of 4.3x based on its expected annualized revenue run rate by next year against the current market cap for the stock at $5.2 billion.\nsource: author estimates\nIn our view, MARA is undervalued at its current level in the context of the Bitcoin pricing environment and growth outlook. A forward P/S multiple closer to 5x would better reflect an appropriate growth premium and the company's positive outlook in our opinion. By this measure, at a constant BTC price of $60k and an outlook for the hash rate to trend towards 215 EH/s, we believe MARA should be valued closer to $61.50 as a near-term price target.\nGoing a step further, with an outlook for Bitcoin to potentially reach $100k by next year, we see shares of MARA trending towards $100. From the table above, the Bitcoin market price of $100k at a 215 EH/s hash rate for next year implies MARA is currently trading at a forward P/S of 2.6x. The stock would need to climb at least 92% from the current level to maintain the valuation parity of 5x based on our model.\nThe Big Picture\nThe Bitcoin mining industry continues to mature with more and more investors beginning to recognize the intrinsic value the leading stocks are generating. Marathon Digital as a U.S.-based leader remains one of the most exciting companies in the segment in the middle of a transformative year. We are encouraged by the recent operating and financial results and expect the company to continue executing successfully. We rate shares of MARA as a buy with a bullish price target of $100 per share in a scenario where Bitcoin trends towards $100k.\nLonger-term, the company's scale and growing balance sheet Bitcoin position will offer it more flexibility to expand into related crypto services while adding to its mining capacity. For the upcoming quarters, the Q3 earnings report will provide an opportunity to take a look at the cost structure as production accelerates. Monitoring points include the monthly updates while it will be important for the company to remain on schedule with the mining machines deliveries and deployments.\nIt goes without saying that the main risk here continues to be the price of Bitcoin. While we are bullish, shares are of MARA will be highly sensitive to the cryptocurrency market price. A selloff in BTC under $50k would likely drive some renewed bearish sentiment and higher volatility. The regulatory landscape also remains uncertain. Efforts by some U.S. states to limit Bitcoin mining along with environmental impact concerns can generate headlines that pressure the segment lower. For 2022, we believe the market will begin to look more closely at earnings and cash flows beyond the high-level themes and momentum.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MARA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829687324,"gmtCreate":1633499353956,"gmtModify":1633499354052,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Roller coaster.","listText":"Roller coaster.","text":"Roller coaster.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829687324","repostId":"1103782575","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103782575","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633486462,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103782575?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103782575","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously cras","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）——</b>十月在华尔街通常是一个阴森的月份。股市在1929年10月、1987年以及最近的2008年暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> But&nbsp;the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up&nbsp;in October.</p><p><blockquote>但万圣节前夕，市场并不总是一个可怕的地方。事实上，股市通常会在十月份上涨。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&amp;P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.</p><p><blockquote>根据LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick的数据，10月份几乎处于中间位置：它是标普500自1950年以来第7个最佳月份，也是过去10年和20年中第4个最佳月份。</blockquote></p><p> \"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"</p><p><blockquote>德特里克在上周的一份报告中表示：“十月份因一些壮观的车祸而闻名，许多人预计今年会再次发生糟糕的事情。”“但事实是这个月只是被误解了，因为从历史上看，它大约是一个普通的月份。”</blockquote></p><p> And it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.</p><p><blockquote>今年10月的情况可能会好于平均水平，因为11月没有可能改变游戏规则的选举结果。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1999, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.</p><p><blockquote>自1999年以来，标普500在奇数年10月上涨3.6%，在偶数年10月下跌1.1%，与美国大选时间表相对应。</blockquote></p><p> \"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>“事实证明，股票不太喜欢政治，”德特里克说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Many risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>许多风险依然存在，但股市前景仍然乐观</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.</p><p><blockquote>当然，今年DC的头条新闻仍可能扰乱市场，尽管不是因为选举。</blockquote></p><p> The debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.</p><p><blockquote>债务上限争论尚未解决，国会仍未通过总统乔·拜登的基础设施和社会支出计划。与此同时，拜登还必须很快决定是提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔连任美联储主席，还是选择其他人。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier &amp; Associates, said in a report last week.</p><p><blockquote>Navellier&amp;Associates董事长路易斯·纳维利尔(Louis Navellier)在上周的一份报告中表示：“第四季度——就像体育赛事或百老汇戏剧的结局一样——是戏剧所在。”</blockquote></p><p> That said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，纳维利尔希望市场和整体经济通常的季节性顺风能够提振今年的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.</p><p><blockquote>股市往往不仅在10月份强劲上涨，而且在第四季度剩余时间也是如此。消费者支出在假日购物季激增，企业通常希望在年度预算用完之前增加投资。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，一些策略师认为，在展望第四季度和2022年的收益时，投资者将继续关注积极的一面。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.</p><p><blockquote>是的，对新冠肺炎、美联储政策、通货膨胀、全球航运延误和许多其他经济警告信号的担忧仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> But although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管这可能会在10月份和第四季度剩余时间造成比往常更大的波动，但很少有人预计这些挑战会导致另一场衰退。所以股票阻力最小的路径仍然是向上。</blockquote></p><p> \"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"</p><p><blockquote>Silvercrest Asset Management董事总经理罗伯特·蒂特(Robert Teeter)在周一的一份报告中表示：“几乎所有这些问题都显示出解决的切实迹象，并且不会对股票估值造成任何长期损害。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 10:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）——</b>十月在华尔街通常是一个阴森的月份。股市在1929年10月、1987年以及最近的2008年暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> But&nbsp;the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up&nbsp;in October.</p><p><blockquote>但万圣节前夕，市场并不总是一个可怕的地方。事实上，股市通常会在十月份上涨。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&amp;P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.</p><p><blockquote>根据LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick的数据，10月份几乎处于中间位置：它是标普500自1950年以来第7个最佳月份，也是过去10年和20年中第4个最佳月份。</blockquote></p><p> \"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"</p><p><blockquote>德特里克在上周的一份报告中表示：“十月份因一些壮观的车祸而闻名，许多人预计今年会再次发生糟糕的事情。”“但事实是这个月只是被误解了，因为从历史上看，它大约是一个普通的月份。”</blockquote></p><p> And it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.</p><p><blockquote>今年10月的情况可能会好于平均水平，因为11月没有可能改变游戏规则的选举结果。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1999, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.</p><p><blockquote>自1999年以来，标普500在奇数年10月上涨3.6%，在偶数年10月下跌1.1%，与美国大选时间表相对应。</blockquote></p><p> \"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>“事实证明，股票不太喜欢政治，”德特里克说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Many risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>许多风险依然存在，但股市前景仍然乐观</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.</p><p><blockquote>当然，今年DC的头条新闻仍可能扰乱市场，尽管不是因为选举。</blockquote></p><p> The debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.</p><p><blockquote>债务上限争论尚未解决，国会仍未通过总统乔·拜登的基础设施和社会支出计划。与此同时，拜登还必须很快决定是提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔连任美联储主席，还是选择其他人。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier &amp; Associates, said in a report last week.</p><p><blockquote>Navellier&amp;Associates董事长路易斯·纳维利尔(Louis Navellier)在上周的一份报告中表示：“第四季度——就像体育赛事或百老汇戏剧的结局一样——是戏剧所在。”</blockquote></p><p> That said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，纳维利尔希望市场和整体经济通常的季节性顺风能够提振今年的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.</p><p><blockquote>股市往往不仅在10月份强劲上涨，而且在第四季度剩余时间也是如此。消费者支出在假日购物季激增，企业通常希望在年度预算用完之前增加投资。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，一些策略师认为，在展望第四季度和2022年的收益时，投资者将继续关注积极的一面。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.</p><p><blockquote>是的，对新冠肺炎、美联储政策、通货膨胀、全球航运延误和许多其他经济警告信号的担忧仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> But although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管这可能会在10月份和第四季度剩余时间造成比往常更大的波动，但很少有人预计这些挑战会导致另一场衰退。所以股票阻力最小的路径仍然是向上。</blockquote></p><p> \"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"</p><p><blockquote>Silvercrest Asset Management董事总经理罗伯特·蒂特(Robert Teeter)在周一的一份报告中表示：“几乎所有这些问题都显示出解决的切实迹象，并且不会对股票估值造成任何长期损害。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103782575","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.\nBut the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up in October.\nAccording to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.\n\"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"\nAnd it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.\nSince 1999, the S&P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.\n\"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.\nMany risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks\nOf course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.\nThe debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.\n\"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier & Associates, said in a report last week.\nThat said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.\nStocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.\nWith that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.\nYes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.\nBut although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.\n\"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":679,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829684478,"gmtCreate":1633499269930,"gmtModify":1633499270040,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Roller coaster.","listText":"Roller coaster.","text":"Roller coaster.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829684478","repostId":"1103782575","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103782575","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633486462,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103782575?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 10:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103782575","media":"CNN Business","summary":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously cras","content":"<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）——</b>十月在华尔街通常是一个阴森的月份。股市在1929年10月、1987年以及最近的2008年暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> But&nbsp;the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up&nbsp;in October.</p><p><blockquote>但万圣节前夕，市场并不总是一个可怕的地方。事实上，股市通常会在十月份上涨。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&amp;P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.</p><p><blockquote>根据LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick的数据，10月份几乎处于中间位置：它是标普500自1950年以来第7个最佳月份，也是过去10年和20年中第4个最佳月份。</blockquote></p><p> \"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"</p><p><blockquote>德特里克在上周的一份报告中表示：“十月份因一些壮观的车祸而闻名，许多人预计今年会再次发生糟糕的事情。”“但事实是这个月只是被误解了，因为从历史上看，它大约是一个普通的月份。”</blockquote></p><p> And it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.</p><p><blockquote>今年10月的情况可能会好于平均水平，因为11月没有可能改变游戏规则的选举结果。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1999, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.</p><p><blockquote>自1999年以来，标普500在奇数年10月上涨3.6%，在偶数年10月下跌1.1%，与美国大选时间表相对应。</blockquote></p><p> \"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>“事实证明，股票不太喜欢政治，”德特里克说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Many risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>许多风险依然存在，但股市前景仍然乐观</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.</p><p><blockquote>当然，今年DC的头条新闻仍可能扰乱市场，尽管不是因为选举。</blockquote></p><p> The debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.</p><p><blockquote>债务上限争论尚未解决，国会仍未通过总统乔·拜登的基础设施和社会支出计划。与此同时，拜登还必须很快决定是提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔连任美联储主席，还是选择其他人。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier &amp; Associates, said in a report last week.</p><p><blockquote>Navellier&amp;Associates董事长路易斯·纳维利尔(Louis Navellier)在上周的一份报告中表示：“第四季度——就像体育赛事或百老汇戏剧的结局一样——是戏剧所在。”</blockquote></p><p> That said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，纳维利尔希望市场和整体经济通常的季节性顺风能够提振今年的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.</p><p><blockquote>股市往往不仅在10月份强劲上涨，而且在第四季度剩余时间也是如此。消费者支出在假日购物季激增，企业通常希望在年度预算用完之前增加投资。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，一些策略师认为，在展望第四季度和2022年的收益时，投资者将继续关注积极的一面。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.</p><p><blockquote>是的，对新冠肺炎、美联储政策、通货膨胀、全球航运延误和许多其他经济警告信号的担忧仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> But although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管这可能会在10月份和第四季度剩余时间造成比往常更大的波动，但很少有人预计这些挑战会导致另一场衰退。所以股票阻力最小的路径仍然是向上。</blockquote></p><p> \"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"</p><p><blockquote>Silvercrest Asset Management董事总经理罗伯特·蒂特(Robert Teeter)在周一的一份报告中表示：“几乎所有这些问题都显示出解决的切实迹象，并且不会对股票估值造成任何长期损害。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Don't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDon't worry (too much) about an October market crash<blockquote>不要（过于）担心十月市场崩盘</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 10:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>New York (CNN Business)&nbsp;-&nbsp;</b>October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.</p><p><blockquote><b>纽约（CNN商业）——</b>十月在华尔街通常是一个阴森的月份。股市在1929年10月、1987年以及最近的2008年暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> But&nbsp;the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up&nbsp;in October.</p><p><blockquote>但万圣节前夕，市场并不总是一个可怕的地方。事实上，股市通常会在十月份上涨。</blockquote></p><p> According to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&amp;P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.</p><p><blockquote>根据LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick的数据，10月份几乎处于中间位置：它是标普500自1950年以来第7个最佳月份，也是过去10年和20年中第4个最佳月份。</blockquote></p><p> \"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"</p><p><blockquote>德特里克在上周的一份报告中表示：“十月份因一些壮观的车祸而闻名，许多人预计今年会再次发生糟糕的事情。”“但事实是这个月只是被误解了，因为从历史上看，它大约是一个普通的月份。”</blockquote></p><p> And it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.</p><p><blockquote>今年10月的情况可能会好于平均水平，因为11月没有可能改变游戏规则的选举结果。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1999, the S&amp;P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.</p><p><blockquote>自1999年以来，标普500在奇数年10月上涨3.6%，在偶数年10月下跌1.1%，与美国大选时间表相对应。</blockquote></p><p> \"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.</p><p><blockquote>“事实证明，股票不太喜欢政治，”德特里克说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Many risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>许多风险依然存在，但股市前景仍然乐观</b></blockquote></p><p> Of course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.</p><p><blockquote>当然，今年DC的头条新闻仍可能扰乱市场，尽管不是因为选举。</blockquote></p><p> The debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.</p><p><blockquote>债务上限争论尚未解决，国会仍未通过总统乔·拜登的基础设施和社会支出计划。与此同时，拜登还必须很快决定是提名杰罗姆·鲍威尔连任美联储主席，还是选择其他人。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier &amp; Associates, said in a report last week.</p><p><blockquote>Navellier&amp;Associates董事长路易斯·纳维利尔(Louis Navellier)在上周的一份报告中表示：“第四季度——就像体育赛事或百老汇戏剧的结局一样——是戏剧所在。”</blockquote></p><p> That said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，纳维利尔希望市场和整体经济通常的季节性顺风能够提振今年的股市。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.</p><p><blockquote>股市往往不仅在10月份强劲上涨，而且在第四季度剩余时间也是如此。消费者支出在假日购物季激增，企业通常希望在年度预算用完之前增加投资。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，一些策略师认为，在展望第四季度和2022年的收益时，投资者将继续关注积极的一面。</blockquote></p><p> Yes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.</p><p><blockquote>是的，对新冠肺炎、美联储政策、通货膨胀、全球航运延误和许多其他经济警告信号的担忧仍然存在。</blockquote></p><p> But although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管这可能会在10月份和第四季度剩余时间造成比往常更大的波动，但很少有人预计这些挑战会导致另一场衰退。所以股票阻力最小的路径仍然是向上。</blockquote></p><p> \"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"</p><p><blockquote>Silvercrest Asset Management董事总经理罗伯特·蒂特(Robert Teeter)在周一的一份报告中表示：“几乎所有这些问题都显示出解决的切实迹象，并且不会对股票估值造成任何长期损害。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/investing/october-stocks/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103782575","content_text":"New York (CNN Business) - October has often been a spooky month on Wall Street. Stocks famously crashed in October 1929, 1987 and, most recently, 2008.\nBut the marketisn't always a terrifying place to be just before Halloween. In fact,stocks typically go up in October.\nAccording to data from Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, October is just about in the middle of the pack: It has been the 7th best month for the S&P 500 since 1950 and the 4th best over the past 10 and 20 years.\n\"October is known for some spectacular crashes and many expect bad things to happen again this year,\" Detrick said in a report last week. \"But the truth is this month is simply misunderstood, as historically it is about an average month.\"\nAnd it could be better than average this October, because there are no potentially game-changing election results coming in November.\nSince 1999, the S&P 500 has gained 3.6% in odd-year Octobers and fallen 1.1% in even-numbered ones, corresponding to the US election schedule.\n\"It turns out stocks don't like politics much,\" Detrick said.\nMany risks remain but outlook still promising for stocks\nOf course DC headlines could still roil the market this year, albeit not because of an election.\nThe debt ceiling debate has yet to be resolved, and Congress still hasn't passed President Joe Biden's infrastructure and social spending plans. Meanwhile Biden also must soon decide whether he wants to nominate Jerome Powell for a second term as Fed chairman or pick someone else.\n\"The fourth quarter — like the conclusion of sporting events or Broadway plays — is where the drama lies,\" Louis Navellier, chairman of Navellier & Associates, said in a report last week.\nThat said, Navellier is hopeful the usual seasonal tailwinds for the markets and the broader economy will lift stocks this year.\nStocks tend to enjoy not just solid gains in October, but also for the remainder of the fourth quarter. Consumer spending surges during the holiday shopping season and businesses often look to boost investments before annual budgets run out.\nWith that in mind, some strategists think that investors will continue to focus on the positive when looking ahead to earnings for Q4 and 2022.\nYes, worries remain about Covid-19, Fed policy, inflation, global shipping delays and numerous other economic warning signs.\nBut although this could create more volatility than usual in October and the rest of the fourth quarter, few expect that these challenges will lead to another recession. So the path of least resistance for stocks is still upward.\n\"Virtually all of these problems are showing tangible signs toward resolution,\" Robert Teeter, managing director at Silvercrest Asset Management, said in a report Monday, \"and should not inflict any long-term damage to stock valuations.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":880444072,"gmtCreate":1631076295196,"gmtModify":1631889526773,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Waiting for the correction to add shares. 🤓","listText":"Waiting for the correction to add shares. 🤓","text":"Waiting for the correction to add shares. 🤓","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880444072","repostId":"2165368421","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165368421","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631060195,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2165368421?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌15%。以下是投资者可能考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165368421","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management","content":"<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席信息官表示，“市场的定价是完美和脆弱的”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01bf576907b812090131b9f0a817516\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司表示，投资者似乎对美联储抱有“信心”。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利对经济的乐观看法并没有阻止其对美国股市即将出现调整的警告。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特(Lisa Shalett)在一份报告中表示：“问题在于，市场定价完美且脆弱，特别是自2020年3月低点以来，调整幅度从未超过10%。”周二。她写道，该银行全球投资委员会预计年底前股市将回调10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美国主要股指在8月和9月头几天的强势，面对令人担忧的事态发展，每天都创下更多连续新高，但本着‘爬上担忧之墙’的精神，这不再具有建设性。””沙莱特说。她表示，“考虑在指数基金中获利了结”，因为股票基准已经排除了“COVID-19住院人数死灰复燃、消费者信心暴跌、利率上升和地缘政治重大转变”的影响。</blockquote></p><p> She suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"</p><p><blockquote>她建议重新平衡投资组合，转向“优质周期性股票”，特别是金融行业的股票，同时寻求“消费服务、必需消费品和医疗保健领域持续的股息支付者”。</blockquote></p><p> Megatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利的报告显示，大型科技股一直无视股票通常在周期中期进行的转型，尽管市场其他领域（例如周期性股票和小盘股）下跌，但它们的市盈率仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a39edba8046c13b53de255d846cd3a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司2021年9月7日的报告。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"</p><p><blockquote>“随着商业和市场周期经历衰退、复苏、修复和扩张，利率通常会开始正常化，市盈率(P/E)会压缩，因为股票上涨越来越多地受到利润增长而不是政策制定者的推动，”沙莱特写道。但股市中占主导地位的大型科技领导者并没有遵循这一“剧本”。</blockquote></p><p> Although Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.</p><p><blockquote>根据她的报告，尽管摩根士丹利仍然“对经济前景持乐观态度”，沙莱特引用了“资本支出和劳动力市场走强的稳健前景”，但该行全球投资委员会越来越担心市场估值。</blockquote></p><p> The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&amp;P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>随着道琼斯工业平均指数和美国股市标普500基准指数回落，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周二收于另一个历史收盘高点。衡量美国股市蓝筹股的道琼斯指数和科技股头重脚轻的标普500指数仍接近近期峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，根据道琼斯市场数据，10年期国债收益率周二上涨近5个基点至1.37%，为7月13日以来的最高水平。债券收益率和价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> \"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>Shalett表示：“实际利率最终走高，不仅因为美联储预计将在今年年底正式开始缩减规模，而且随着全球经济反弹以及‘避险’外国流动性从定价过高的美国国债中流出。”“更高的利率应该会给市盈率带来压力，市盈率已经远高于历史正常水平，特别是考虑到当前测量和实现的通胀水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>沙利特表示，投资者似乎对美联储“充满信心”，通过其“巧妙细致入微的沟通”来实现其政策目标。她写道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔“似乎让投资者相信，他和他的政策制定同事有能力在不犯错误的情况下微妙地穿针引线”。</blockquote></p><p> For example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在央行在8月底怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上重申其观点后，市场似乎受到了鼓舞，即通胀是暂时的，最终缩减资产购买并不是政策收紧，并且“实际加息”沙利特表示，这与他们新的‘最大’就业标准的非常高的标准有关。</blockquote></p><p> \"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"</p><p><blockquote>“股票和债券投资者都欢呼雀跃，”她说，“让资产泡沫和金融稳定担忧见鬼去吧。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌15%。以下是投资者可能考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌15%。以下是投资者可能考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 08:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席信息官表示，“市场的定价是完美和脆弱的”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01bf576907b812090131b9f0a817516\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司表示，投资者似乎对美联储抱有“信心”。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利对经济的乐观看法并没有阻止其对美国股市即将出现调整的警告。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特(Lisa Shalett)在一份报告中表示：“问题在于，市场定价完美且脆弱，特别是自2020年3月低点以来，调整幅度从未超过10%。”周二。她写道，该银行全球投资委员会预计年底前股市将回调10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美国主要股指在8月和9月头几天的强势，面对令人担忧的事态发展，每天都创下更多连续新高，但本着‘爬上担忧之墙’的精神，这不再具有建设性。””沙莱特说。她表示，“考虑在指数基金中获利了结”，因为股票基准已经排除了“COVID-19住院人数死灰复燃、消费者信心暴跌、利率上升和地缘政治重大转变”的影响。</blockquote></p><p> She suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"</p><p><blockquote>她建议重新平衡投资组合，转向“优质周期性股票”，特别是金融行业的股票，同时寻求“消费服务、必需消费品和医疗保健领域持续的股息支付者”。</blockquote></p><p> Megatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利的报告显示，大型科技股一直无视股票通常在周期中期进行的转型，尽管市场其他领域（例如周期性股票和小盘股）下跌，但它们的市盈率仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a39edba8046c13b53de255d846cd3a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司2021年9月7日的报告。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"</p><p><blockquote>“随着商业和市场周期经历衰退、复苏、修复和扩张，利率通常会开始正常化，市盈率(P/E)会压缩，因为股票上涨越来越多地受到利润增长而不是政策制定者的推动，”沙莱特写道。但股市中占主导地位的大型科技领导者并没有遵循这一“剧本”。</blockquote></p><p> Although Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.</p><p><blockquote>根据她的报告，尽管摩根士丹利仍然“对经济前景持乐观态度”，沙莱特引用了“资本支出和劳动力市场走强的稳健前景”，但该行全球投资委员会越来越担心市场估值。</blockquote></p><p> The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&amp;P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>随着道琼斯工业平均指数和美国股市标普500基准指数回落，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周二收于另一个历史收盘高点。衡量美国股市蓝筹股的道琼斯指数和科技股头重脚轻的标普500指数仍接近近期峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，根据道琼斯市场数据，10年期国债收益率周二上涨近5个基点至1.37%，为7月13日以来的最高水平。债券收益率和价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> \"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>Shalett表示：“实际利率最终走高，不仅因为美联储预计将在今年年底正式开始缩减规模，而且随着全球经济反弹以及‘避险’外国流动性从定价过高的美国国债中流出。”“更高的利率应该会给市盈率带来压力，市盈率已经远高于历史正常水平，特别是考虑到当前测量和实现的通胀水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>沙利特表示，投资者似乎对美联储“充满信心”，通过其“巧妙细致入微的沟通”来实现其政策目标。她写道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔“似乎让投资者相信，他和他的政策制定同事有能力在不犯错误的情况下微妙地穿针引线”。</blockquote></p><p> For example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在央行在8月底怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上重申其观点后，市场似乎受到了鼓舞，即通胀是暂时的，最终缩减资产购买并不是政策收紧，并且“实际加息”沙利特表示，这与他们新的‘最大’就业标准的非常高的标准有关。</blockquote></p><p> \"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"</p><p><blockquote>“股票和债券投资者都欢呼雀跃，”她说，“让资产泡沫和金融稳定担忧见鬼去吧。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"2165368421","content_text":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management\nInvestors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.\nMorgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.\n\"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.\n\"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"\nShe suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"\nMegatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.\nA Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.\n\"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"\nAlthough Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.\nThe tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.\nMeanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.\n\"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"\nInvestors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.\nFor example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.\n\"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":693866861,"gmtCreate":1640002674957,"gmtModify":1640002675071,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No Santa rally😔","listText":"No Santa rally😔","text":"No Santa rally😔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693866861","repostId":"1160299527","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605919352,"gmtCreate":1639100678551,"gmtModify":1639100884349,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no. Please not again!","listText":"Oh no. Please not again!","text":"Oh no. Please not again!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605919352","repostId":"2190964556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":895910752,"gmtCreate":1628702703376,"gmtModify":1631889526858,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looking forward to it happening.","listText":"Looking forward to it happening.","text":"Looking forward to it happening.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895910752","repostId":"1127308009","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127308009","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628691808,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127308009?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-11 22:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon Stock To Rise 50%: One Analyst’s Bull Case<blockquote>亚马逊股价将上涨50%：一位分析师的看涨理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127308009","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Amazon stockhas not been in a hurry to move any higher. Some may not have realized, but shares of the cloud and e-commerce giant trade today a few percentage points below early September 2020 levels – nearly a full year of largely sideway movements in the market.One Wall Street expert, however,believesthat AMZN has a very long runway ahead. According to Susquehanna analyst Shyam Patil, the stock has 50% upside from here, and he thinks that now is a “great time to buy” shares.But the bullish Susq","content":"<p>Amazon stock(<b>AMZN</b>)has not been in a hurry to move any higher. Some may not have realized, but shares of the cloud and e-commerce giant trade today a few percentage points below early September 2020 levels – nearly a full year of largely sideway movements in the market.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊股票(<b>AMZN</b>）并不急于走高。有些人可能没有意识到，但这家云和电子商务巨头的股价今天的交易价格比2020年9月初的水平低了几个百分点——市场几乎整整一年都在横向波动。</blockquote></p><p> One Wall Street expert, however,believesthat AMZN has a very long runway ahead. According to Susquehanna analyst Shyam Patil, the stock has 50% upside from here, and he thinks that now is a “great time to buy” shares.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一位华尔街专家认为，亚马逊还有很长的路要走。Susquehanna分析师Shyam Patil表示，该股还有50%的上涨空间，他认为现在是“买入”股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Growth story intact</h3> Amazon stock would have been having a decent 12 months of performance, up around 20% between late July 2020 and 2021, if not for bearishnesstriggered by second quarter earnings. On July 29, the company downshifted gears on the e-commerce growth story, leading some investors to scramble for the exits.</p><p><blockquote><h3>完整的成长故事</h3>如果不是第二季度收益引发的看跌，亚马逊股票在12个月内的表现将会不错，在2020年7月下旬至2021年间上涨约20%。7月29日，该公司放缓了电子商务增长的步伐，导致一些投资者争相退出。</blockquote></p><p> But the bullish Susquehanna analyst, who currently has a price target of $5,000 on Amazon shares, did not see reason to panic. Here is his quote:</p><p><blockquote>但这位看涨的Susquehanna分析师目前将亚马逊股票的目标价定为5,000美元，他认为没有理由恐慌。以下是他的名言：</blockquote></p><p>   “Looking at the two-year compounded annual growth rates, trends are still very strong and we see no reason to be concerned. Ultimately, we continue to see Amazon as a long-term secular grower underpinned by its strong e-commerce, cloud, and advertising businesses.”  Clearly, Mr. Patil is more focused on the company’s long-term prospects which, I agree, continue to look good. The graph below helps to illustrate his point on the two-year growth rate of Amazon’s North America business – the segment that underperformed in Q2. The figures below are annualized.</p><p><blockquote>“从两年复合年增长率来看，趋势仍然非常强劲，我们认为没有理由担心。最终，我们仍然认为亚马逊是一个长期长期增长的公司，其基础是其强大的电子商务、云和广告业务。”显然，帕蒂尔先生更关注公司的长期前景，我同意公司的长期前景仍然良好。下图有助于说明他对亚马逊北美业务两年增长率的看法——该业务在第二季度表现不佳。以下数字按年计算。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc8e36ef17f82f39040a45e4b885697\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2: North America annualized two-year growth.The Amazon Maven</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：北美两年年化增长。亚马逊专家</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Notice that growth in North America remains elevated, above 30% per year, after smoothing out the impact of the pandemic. The problem, in the short term, is that expectations may have been set too optimistically coming out of the COVID-19 crisis. They had to scale back at some point in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，在消除了疫情的影响后，北美的增长率仍然很高，每年超过30%。短期内的问题是，新冠肺炎危机后的预期可能过于乐观。他们不得不在2021年的某个时候缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Is AMZN's price right?</h3> The Susquehanna team seems to base its AMZN bullishness on the secular tailwinds in digital retail, cloud and advertising benefitting the Seattle-based company. But valuation does not seem to come up often as a key component of Mr. Patil’s investment thesis.</p><p><blockquote><h3>AMZN的价格合适吗？</h3>萨斯奎哈纳团队似乎将其对亚马逊的看好建立在数字零售、云和广告的长期顺风上，使这家总部位于西雅图的公司受益。但估值似乎并不经常成为帕蒂尔投资论点的关键组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> In that regard, I believe that Amazon stock may be about as attractively priced as it has ever been. Although the share price has<i>not</i>moved higher in 12 months, the company’s projected financial results<i>have</i>. As a result, valuations have dropped near all-time lows, asthe Amazon Maven recently discussed.</p><p><blockquote>在这方面，我相信亚马逊股票的价格可能与以往一样有吸引力。虽然股价已<i>不</i>公司预计财务业绩在12个月内走高<i>有</i>结果，正如亚马逊专家最近讨论的那样，估值已经跌至历史低点附近。</blockquote></p><p> Do I think that AMZN will, in fact, reach $5,000 per share in the foreseeable future? This is a tough question to answer. But historically, buying the stock after pullbacks (it is currently 11% off peak levels)has proven to be a smart move– more so now that valuations have de-risked quite a bit.</p><p><blockquote>我认为AMZN在可预见的未来实际上会达到每股5,000美元吗？这是一个很难回答的问题。但从历史上看，在回调后买入该股（目前较峰值水平低11%）已被证明是明智之举——现在估值已经大大降低了风险，更是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon Stock To Rise 50%: One Analyst’s Bull Case<blockquote>亚马逊股价将上涨50%：一位分析师的看涨理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon Stock To Rise 50%: One Analyst’s Bull Case<blockquote>亚马逊股价将上涨50%：一位分析师的看涨理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-11 22:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Amazon stock(<b>AMZN</b>)has not been in a hurry to move any higher. Some may not have realized, but shares of the cloud and e-commerce giant trade today a few percentage points below early September 2020 levels – nearly a full year of largely sideway movements in the market.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊股票(<b>AMZN</b>）并不急于走高。有些人可能没有意识到，但这家云和电子商务巨头的股价今天的交易价格比2020年9月初的水平低了几个百分点——市场几乎整整一年都在横向波动。</blockquote></p><p> One Wall Street expert, however,believesthat AMZN has a very long runway ahead. According to Susquehanna analyst Shyam Patil, the stock has 50% upside from here, and he thinks that now is a “great time to buy” shares.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一位华尔街专家认为，亚马逊还有很长的路要走。Susquehanna分析师Shyam Patil表示，该股还有50%的上涨空间，他认为现在是“买入”股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Growth story intact</h3> Amazon stock would have been having a decent 12 months of performance, up around 20% between late July 2020 and 2021, if not for bearishnesstriggered by second quarter earnings. On July 29, the company downshifted gears on the e-commerce growth story, leading some investors to scramble for the exits.</p><p><blockquote><h3>完整的成长故事</h3>如果不是第二季度收益引发的看跌，亚马逊股票在12个月内的表现将会不错，在2020年7月下旬至2021年间上涨约20%。7月29日，该公司放缓了电子商务增长的步伐，导致一些投资者争相退出。</blockquote></p><p> But the bullish Susquehanna analyst, who currently has a price target of $5,000 on Amazon shares, did not see reason to panic. Here is his quote:</p><p><blockquote>但这位看涨的Susquehanna分析师目前将亚马逊股票的目标价定为5,000美元，他认为没有理由恐慌。以下是他的名言：</blockquote></p><p>   “Looking at the two-year compounded annual growth rates, trends are still very strong and we see no reason to be concerned. Ultimately, we continue to see Amazon as a long-term secular grower underpinned by its strong e-commerce, cloud, and advertising businesses.”  Clearly, Mr. Patil is more focused on the company’s long-term prospects which, I agree, continue to look good. The graph below helps to illustrate his point on the two-year growth rate of Amazon’s North America business – the segment that underperformed in Q2. The figures below are annualized.</p><p><blockquote>“从两年复合年增长率来看，趋势仍然非常强劲，我们认为没有理由担心。最终，我们仍然认为亚马逊是一个长期长期增长的公司，其基础是其强大的电子商务、云和广告业务。”显然，帕蒂尔先生更关注公司的长期前景，我同意公司的长期前景仍然良好。下图有助于说明他对亚马逊北美业务两年增长率的看法——该业务在第二季度表现不佳。以下数字按年计算。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc8e36ef17f82f39040a45e4b885697\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2: North America annualized two-year growth.The Amazon Maven</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：北美两年年化增长。亚马逊专家</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Notice that growth in North America remains elevated, above 30% per year, after smoothing out the impact of the pandemic. The problem, in the short term, is that expectations may have been set too optimistically coming out of the COVID-19 crisis. They had to scale back at some point in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，在消除了疫情的影响后，北美的增长率仍然很高，每年超过30%。短期内的问题是，新冠肺炎危机后的预期可能过于乐观。他们不得不在2021年的某个时候缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Is AMZN's price right?</h3> The Susquehanna team seems to base its AMZN bullishness on the secular tailwinds in digital retail, cloud and advertising benefitting the Seattle-based company. But valuation does not seem to come up often as a key component of Mr. Patil’s investment thesis.</p><p><blockquote><h3>AMZN的价格合适吗？</h3>萨斯奎哈纳团队似乎将其对亚马逊的看好建立在数字零售、云和广告的长期顺风上，使这家总部位于西雅图的公司受益。但估值似乎并不经常成为帕蒂尔投资论点的关键组成部分。</blockquote></p><p> In that regard, I believe that Amazon stock may be about as attractively priced as it has ever been. Although the share price has<i>not</i>moved higher in 12 months, the company’s projected financial results<i>have</i>. As a result, valuations have dropped near all-time lows, asthe Amazon Maven recently discussed.</p><p><blockquote>在这方面，我相信亚马逊股票的价格可能与以往一样有吸引力。虽然股价已<i>不</i>公司预计财务业绩在12个月内走高<i>有</i>结果，正如亚马逊专家最近讨论的那样，估值已经跌至历史低点附近。</blockquote></p><p> Do I think that AMZN will, in fact, reach $5,000 per share in the foreseeable future? This is a tough question to answer. But historically, buying the stock after pullbacks (it is currently 11% off peak levels)has proven to be a smart move– more so now that valuations have de-risked quite a bit.</p><p><blockquote>我认为AMZN在可预见的未来实际上会达到每股5,000美元吗？这是一个很难回答的问题。但从历史上看，在回调后买入该股（目前较峰值水平低11%）已被证明是明智之举——现在估值已经大大降低了风险，更是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/amazon-stock-to-rise-50-one-analysts-bull-case\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/amazon/stock/amazon-stock-to-rise-50-one-analysts-bull-case","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127308009","content_text":"Amazon stock(AMZN)has not been in a hurry to move any higher. Some may not have realized, but shares of the cloud and e-commerce giant trade today a few percentage points below early September 2020 levels – nearly a full year of largely sideway movements in the market.\nOne Wall Street expert, however,believesthat AMZN has a very long runway ahead. According to Susquehanna analyst Shyam Patil, the stock has 50% upside from here, and he thinks that now is a “great time to buy” shares.\nGrowth story intact\nAmazon stock would have been having a decent 12 months of performance, up around 20% between late July 2020 and 2021, if not for bearishnesstriggered by second quarter earnings. On July 29, the company downshifted gears on the e-commerce growth story, leading some investors to scramble for the exits.\nBut the bullish Susquehanna analyst, who currently has a price target of $5,000 on Amazon shares, did not see reason to panic. Here is his quote:\n\n “Looking at the two-year compounded annual growth rates, trends are still very strong and we see no reason to be concerned. Ultimately, we continue to see Amazon as a long-term secular grower underpinned by its strong e-commerce, cloud, and advertising businesses.”\n\nClearly, Mr. Patil is more focused on the company’s long-term prospects which, I agree, continue to look good. The graph below helps to illustrate his point on the two-year growth rate of Amazon’s North America business – the segment that underperformed in Q2. The figures below are annualized.\nFigure 2: North America annualized two-year growth.The Amazon Maven\nNotice that growth in North America remains elevated, above 30% per year, after smoothing out the impact of the pandemic. The problem, in the short term, is that expectations may have been set too optimistically coming out of the COVID-19 crisis. They had to scale back at some point in 2021.\nIs AMZN's price right?\nThe Susquehanna team seems to base its AMZN bullishness on the secular tailwinds in digital retail, cloud and advertising benefitting the Seattle-based company. But valuation does not seem to come up often as a key component of Mr. Patil’s investment thesis.\nIn that regard, I believe that Amazon stock may be about as attractively priced as it has ever been. Although the share price hasnotmoved higher in 12 months, the company’s projected financial resultshave. As a result, valuations have dropped near all-time lows, asthe Amazon Maven recently discussed.\nDo I think that AMZN will, in fact, reach $5,000 per share in the foreseeable future? This is a tough question to answer. But historically, buying the stock after pullbacks (it is currently 11% off peak levels)has proven to be a smart move– more so now that valuations have de-risked quite a bit.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800752770,"gmtCreate":1627330708390,"gmtModify":1633766133097,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"noted&nbsp;","listText":"noted&nbsp;","text":"noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800752770","repostId":"1100647798","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100647798","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627313442,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100647798?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100647798","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"After the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple  for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.I'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as we","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares go into report near all-time high.</li>  <li>Estimates surge after two massive beats.</li>  <li>Timing of product launches will shift revenue picture.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股价接近历史新高。</li><li>两次大幅上涨后，预估值飙升。</li><li>产品发布的时间将改变收入状况。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple (AAPL) for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.</p><p><blockquote>周二盘后，我们将收到科技巨头苹果(AAPL)截至6月底的第三财季业绩。由于该公司前两个季度的收益报告超出了华尔街的预期，预期持续上升也就不足为奇了。随着最近几周股价上涨至历史新高，可能需要另一份强劲的报告来维持局面。</blockquote></p><p> For the first half of fiscal 2021, Apple's revenues have beaten street estimates by an average of $10.25 billion per quarter. The fiscal Q3&nbsp;current average estimate&nbsp;is $73.44 billion, which would represent growth of more than 23% from the year-ago period. It's quite impressive that the current average is up more than $13 billion over the past year. On the bottom line, the street is looking for $1.01, growth of more than 56%. In the table below, you can see some Q3 key financial items for the past two years, with the current estimates for this year's period in yellow. Dollar values are millions except per share amounts.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年上半年，苹果的收入平均每季度超出华尔街预期102.5亿美元。第三财季目前的平均预期为734.4亿美元，比去年同期增长23%以上。令人印象深刻的是，目前的平均水平在过去一年中增长了超过130亿美元。从底线来看，华尔街的目标是1.01美元，增长超过56%。在下表中，您可以看到过去两年第三季度的一些关键财务项目，今年同期的当前估计为黄色。除每股金额外，美元价值为数百万。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df8630a7ef0be70113aeac0d50265a57\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(*Numbers estimated based on last year's split. Actual numbers to come from the company. Source: Fiscal Q3 2020 report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（*根据去年的拆分估算的数字。实际数字来自公司。资料来源：2020财年第三季度报告）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple is comingoff arguably&nbsp;its best quarter ever. Revenues for the iPhone were up more than 65.5% over the prior-year period, with the Mac up more than 70% and iPad up nearly 79%. Fiscal Q2 overall revenue growth was nearly 54%, so this time around we're looking for about 40% of that figure. Don't forget, on the&nbsp;Q2 conference call, management talked about a $3 billion to $4 billion revenue hit in the June period from supply constraints.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可以说是有史以来最好的季度。iPhone的收入同比增长超过65.5%，Mac增长超过70%，iPad增长近79%。第二财季整体收入增长近54%，因此这次我们预计这一数字的40%左右。别忘了，在第二季度电话会议上，管理层谈到6月份期间供应限制导致收入损失30亿至40亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I'm most curious to see how the iPhone does this time around, as it appears that the 5G supercycle seems to be going pretty well. This year, however, most expectations are that the smartphone will return to its usual September launch period, meaning new phone revenues would be generated in fiscal Q4 again. Last year's coronavirus delayed launch meant sales didn't start until well into October and even November for some models, completely changing the sales trajectory for Apple's current fiscal year. This year's launch isn't expected to see a major upgrade to the phone line itself, so demand trends will probably be more dependent on how many consumers are upgrading to 5G rather than switching to iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>我最好奇的是这一次iPhone的表现如何，因为5G超级周期似乎进展顺利。然而，今年，大多数人预计智能手机将回到通常的9月发布期，这意味着新手机收入将在第四财季再次产生。去年的冠状病毒推迟了上市，这意味着某些车型直到10月甚至11月才开始销售，这完全改变了苹果本财年的销售轨迹。今年的推出预计不会对电话线本身进行重大升级，因此需求趋势可能更多地取决于有多少消费者升级到5G，而不是转向iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> I'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as well as soaring commodity prices. I don't think we will see a repeat of the 575 basis point increase in product gross margins that Q2 saw this time around, but the iPhone 12 line should still provide a nice year-over-year boost. In the long run, investors will look at growing services margins helping the gross margin percentage overall, but don't forget that the services side of the business has a lot of its expenses on the operating line.</p><p><blockquote>我相信分析师也将关注苹果如何应对芯片短缺和大宗商品价格飙升的问题。我认为我们不会看到第二季度产品毛利率增长575个基点的重演，但iPhone 12系列仍然应该会带来不错的同比增长。从长远来看，投资者将关注不断增长的服务利润率，以帮助提高整体毛利率，但不要忘记，业务的服务方面在运营方面有大量费用。</blockquote></p><p> For the stock to stay elevated, management is going to need to show that work from home and stimulus money tailwinds are still ongoing. As I discussed in&nbsp;a previous article, estimates call for Apple to see quarterly revenues decline for its March 2022 fiscal period, as the company laps very high previous year bars. While that might bring out some of the bears again, the long-term trajectory still seems positive. Current estimates call for $355 billion in total revenue during this fiscal year with Apple adding another $50 billion to that total over the next three years.</p><p><blockquote>为了使股价保持高位，管理层需要证明在家工作和刺激资金的顺风仍在持续。正如我在上一篇文章中讨论的那样，看涨期权预计苹果2022年3月财年的季度收入将下降，因为该公司去年的收入水平非常高。虽然这可能会再次引发一些空头，但长期轨迹似乎仍然是积极的。目前估计看涨期权本财年的总收入为3550亿美元，苹果将在未来三年内再增加500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I hope that management took advantage of the weakness in Apple shares during the quarter for its buyback. Even though the company is spending $20 billion or so every three months, that money doesn't go as far as $145 as it does at $125, obviously. Less shares repurchased means less of an earnings per share benefit, and lower long-term dividend raises. The good news is that Apple is on its way towards $100 billion a year in free cash flow, so investors don't need to worry about capital returns slowing down anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>我希望管理层利用本季度苹果股价疲软的机会进行回购。尽管该公司每三个月花费200亿美元左右，但这笔钱显然不会像125美元那样达到145美元。回购的股票越少意味着每股收益收益越少，长期股息提高也越低。好消息是，苹果的自由现金流即将达到每年1000亿美元，因此投资者无需担心资本回报会很快放缓。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The major issue for Apple right now is valuation. Shares finished last week trading at 33.4 times their trailing twelve-month earnings. That's basically double the mid-teens numbers from a couple of years ago, helped a lot by easy-money policies around the globe. My current price target of $162 is based on a 30X multiple of $5.40 in EPS for the September 2022 period. That number, however, assumes that the Fed and other central banks will remain fairly accommodative through most of next year. If we start to get a lot of tapering and or rate hikes earlier than expected, the overall market is likely to feel some pain, and I don't see how Apple would be immune from that.</p><p><blockquote>苹果目前的主要问题是估值。上周股价是过去12个月市盈率的33.4倍。这基本上是几年前青少年人数的两倍，这在很大程度上得益于全球宽松货币政策。我目前162美元的目标价是基于2022年9月期间每股收益5.40美元的30倍。然而，这个数字是假设美联储和其他央行在明年大部分时间里将保持相当宽松的政策。如果我们比预期更早地开始大量缩减和/或加息，整个市场可能会感到一些痛苦，我看不出苹果会如何免受此影响。</blockquote></p><p> A strong report from Apple could easily help shares to rise to a new all-time high. But just to play devil's advocate for a minute, what if there is a disappointment or a \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" reaction? Well, shares are quite a bit above their key moving averages as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in orange). As long as Apple can hold the shorter-term trend line, that rising technical level should be one of support. The stock has been able to hold the long-term trend line for quite a while, so I don't see any more than about 14% downside in the near term unless we get a major market pullback.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的强劲报告很容易帮助股价升至历史新高。但只是为了唱反调一分钟，如果出现失望或“买入谣言，卖出新闻”的反应怎么办？嗯，股价远高于其关键移动平均线，如下图所示（紫色为50日，橙色为200日）。只要苹果能够守住短期趋势线，上涨的技术水平应该是支撑之一。该股已经能够在相当长一段时间内保持长期趋势线，因此我认为短期内的下跌幅度不会超过14%左右，除非市场出现重大回调。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc37ee144edb22fd36fcd15cf5fc3470\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Yahoo! Finance)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：雅虎财经）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the end, expectations for Apple are very high as earnings approach this week. Two massive quarterly beats have sent estimates through the roof, and the stock has recently run to a new all-time high. The market will be looking for signs that the iPhone supercycle has continued while work from home tailwinds have not subsided just yet. Investors hoping that this rally can continue will need to see a strong report, with management hopefully painting a bright sales picture for upcoming fall product launches.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着本周财报的临近，人们对苹果的期望非常高。两个巨大的季度业绩超出了预期，该股最近创下了历史新高。市场将寻找iPhone超级周期仍在继续的迹象，而在家工作的顺风尚未消退。希望这种涨势能够持续下去的投资者需要看到一份强劲的报告，管理层希望为即将到来的秋季产品发布描绘一幅光明的销售图景。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 23:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares go into report near all-time high.</li>  <li>Estimates surge after two massive beats.</li>  <li>Timing of product launches will shift revenue picture.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股价接近历史新高。</li><li>两次大幅上涨后，预估值飙升。</li><li>产品发布的时间将改变收入状况。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple (AAPL) for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.</p><p><blockquote>周二盘后，我们将收到科技巨头苹果(AAPL)截至6月底的第三财季业绩。由于该公司前两个季度的收益报告超出了华尔街的预期，预期持续上升也就不足为奇了。随着最近几周股价上涨至历史新高，可能需要另一份强劲的报告来维持局面。</blockquote></p><p> For the first half of fiscal 2021, Apple's revenues have beaten street estimates by an average of $10.25 billion per quarter. The fiscal Q3&nbsp;current average estimate&nbsp;is $73.44 billion, which would represent growth of more than 23% from the year-ago period. It's quite impressive that the current average is up more than $13 billion over the past year. On the bottom line, the street is looking for $1.01, growth of more than 56%. In the table below, you can see some Q3 key financial items for the past two years, with the current estimates for this year's period in yellow. Dollar values are millions except per share amounts.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年上半年，苹果的收入平均每季度超出华尔街预期102.5亿美元。第三财季目前的平均预期为734.4亿美元，比去年同期增长23%以上。令人印象深刻的是，目前的平均水平在过去一年中增长了超过130亿美元。从底线来看，华尔街的目标是1.01美元，增长超过56%。在下表中，您可以看到过去两年第三季度的一些关键财务项目，今年同期的当前估计为黄色。除每股金额外，美元价值为数百万。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df8630a7ef0be70113aeac0d50265a57\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(*Numbers estimated based on last year's split. Actual numbers to come from the company. Source: Fiscal Q3 2020 report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（*根据去年的拆分估算的数字。实际数字来自公司。资料来源：2020财年第三季度报告）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple is comingoff arguably&nbsp;its best quarter ever. Revenues for the iPhone were up more than 65.5% over the prior-year period, with the Mac up more than 70% and iPad up nearly 79%. Fiscal Q2 overall revenue growth was nearly 54%, so this time around we're looking for about 40% of that figure. Don't forget, on the&nbsp;Q2 conference call, management talked about a $3 billion to $4 billion revenue hit in the June period from supply constraints.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可以说是有史以来最好的季度。iPhone的收入同比增长超过65.5%，Mac增长超过70%，iPad增长近79%。第二财季整体收入增长近54%，因此这次我们预计这一数字的40%左右。别忘了，在第二季度电话会议上，管理层谈到6月份期间供应限制导致收入损失30亿至40亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I'm most curious to see how the iPhone does this time around, as it appears that the 5G supercycle seems to be going pretty well. This year, however, most expectations are that the smartphone will return to its usual September launch period, meaning new phone revenues would be generated in fiscal Q4 again. Last year's coronavirus delayed launch meant sales didn't start until well into October and even November for some models, completely changing the sales trajectory for Apple's current fiscal year. This year's launch isn't expected to see a major upgrade to the phone line itself, so demand trends will probably be more dependent on how many consumers are upgrading to 5G rather than switching to iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>我最好奇的是这一次iPhone的表现如何，因为5G超级周期似乎进展顺利。然而，今年，大多数人预计智能手机将回到通常的9月发布期，这意味着新手机收入将在第四财季再次产生。去年的冠状病毒推迟了上市，这意味着某些车型直到10月甚至11月才开始销售，这完全改变了苹果本财年的销售轨迹。今年的推出预计不会对电话线本身进行重大升级，因此需求趋势可能更多地取决于有多少消费者升级到5G，而不是转向iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> I'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as well as soaring commodity prices. I don't think we will see a repeat of the 575 basis point increase in product gross margins that Q2 saw this time around, but the iPhone 12 line should still provide a nice year-over-year boost. In the long run, investors will look at growing services margins helping the gross margin percentage overall, but don't forget that the services side of the business has a lot of its expenses on the operating line.</p><p><blockquote>我相信分析师也将关注苹果如何应对芯片短缺和大宗商品价格飙升的问题。我认为我们不会看到第二季度产品毛利率增长575个基点的重演，但iPhone 12系列仍然应该会带来不错的同比增长。从长远来看，投资者将关注不断增长的服务利润率，以帮助提高整体毛利率，但不要忘记，业务的服务方面在运营方面有大量费用。</blockquote></p><p> For the stock to stay elevated, management is going to need to show that work from home and stimulus money tailwinds are still ongoing. As I discussed in&nbsp;a previous article, estimates call for Apple to see quarterly revenues decline for its March 2022 fiscal period, as the company laps very high previous year bars. While that might bring out some of the bears again, the long-term trajectory still seems positive. Current estimates call for $355 billion in total revenue during this fiscal year with Apple adding another $50 billion to that total over the next three years.</p><p><blockquote>为了使股价保持高位，管理层需要证明在家工作和刺激资金的顺风仍在持续。正如我在上一篇文章中讨论的那样，看涨期权预计苹果2022年3月财年的季度收入将下降，因为该公司去年的收入水平非常高。虽然这可能会再次引发一些空头，但长期轨迹似乎仍然是积极的。目前估计看涨期权本财年的总收入为3550亿美元，苹果将在未来三年内再增加500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I hope that management took advantage of the weakness in Apple shares during the quarter for its buyback. Even though the company is spending $20 billion or so every three months, that money doesn't go as far as $145 as it does at $125, obviously. Less shares repurchased means less of an earnings per share benefit, and lower long-term dividend raises. The good news is that Apple is on its way towards $100 billion a year in free cash flow, so investors don't need to worry about capital returns slowing down anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>我希望管理层利用本季度苹果股价疲软的机会进行回购。尽管该公司每三个月花费200亿美元左右，但这笔钱显然不会像125美元那样达到145美元。回购的股票越少意味着每股收益收益越少，长期股息提高也越低。好消息是，苹果的自由现金流即将达到每年1000亿美元，因此投资者无需担心资本回报会很快放缓。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The major issue for Apple right now is valuation. Shares finished last week trading at 33.4 times their trailing twelve-month earnings. That's basically double the mid-teens numbers from a couple of years ago, helped a lot by easy-money policies around the globe. My current price target of $162 is based on a 30X multiple of $5.40 in EPS for the September 2022 period. That number, however, assumes that the Fed and other central banks will remain fairly accommodative through most of next year. If we start to get a lot of tapering and or rate hikes earlier than expected, the overall market is likely to feel some pain, and I don't see how Apple would be immune from that.</p><p><blockquote>苹果目前的主要问题是估值。上周股价是过去12个月市盈率的33.4倍。这基本上是几年前青少年人数的两倍，这在很大程度上得益于全球宽松货币政策。我目前162美元的目标价是基于2022年9月期间每股收益5.40美元的30倍。然而，这个数字是假设美联储和其他央行在明年大部分时间里将保持相当宽松的政策。如果我们比预期更早地开始大量缩减和/或加息，整个市场可能会感到一些痛苦，我看不出苹果会如何免受此影响。</blockquote></p><p> A strong report from Apple could easily help shares to rise to a new all-time high. But just to play devil's advocate for a minute, what if there is a disappointment or a \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" reaction? Well, shares are quite a bit above their key moving averages as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in orange). As long as Apple can hold the shorter-term trend line, that rising technical level should be one of support. The stock has been able to hold the long-term trend line for quite a while, so I don't see any more than about 14% downside in the near term unless we get a major market pullback.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的强劲报告很容易帮助股价升至历史新高。但只是为了唱反调一分钟，如果出现失望或“买入谣言，卖出新闻”的反应怎么办？嗯，股价远高于其关键移动平均线，如下图所示（紫色为50日，橙色为200日）。只要苹果能够守住短期趋势线，上涨的技术水平应该是支撑之一。该股已经能够在相当长一段时间内保持长期趋势线，因此我认为短期内的下跌幅度不会超过14%左右，除非市场出现重大回调。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc37ee144edb22fd36fcd15cf5fc3470\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Yahoo! Finance)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：雅虎财经）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the end, expectations for Apple are very high as earnings approach this week. Two massive quarterly beats have sent estimates through the roof, and the stock has recently run to a new all-time high. The market will be looking for signs that the iPhone supercycle has continued while work from home tailwinds have not subsided just yet. Investors hoping that this rally can continue will need to see a strong report, with management hopefully painting a bright sales picture for upcoming fall product launches.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着本周财报的临近，人们对苹果的期望非常高。两个巨大的季度业绩超出了预期，该股最近创下了历史新高。市场将寻找iPhone超级周期仍在继续的迹象，而在家工作的顺风尚未消退。希望这种涨势能够持续下去的投资者需要看到一份强劲的报告，管理层希望为即将到来的秋季产品发布描绘一幅光明的销售图景。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441375-apple-earnings-face-high-expectations\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441375-apple-earnings-face-high-expectations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100647798","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares go into report near all-time high.\nEstimates surge after two massive beats.\nTiming of product launches will shift revenue picture.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nAfter the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple (AAPL) for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.\nFor the first half of fiscal 2021, Apple's revenues have beaten street estimates by an average of $10.25 billion per quarter. The fiscal Q3 current average estimate is $73.44 billion, which would represent growth of more than 23% from the year-ago period. It's quite impressive that the current average is up more than $13 billion over the past year. On the bottom line, the street is looking for $1.01, growth of more than 56%. In the table below, you can see some Q3 key financial items for the past two years, with the current estimates for this year's period in yellow. Dollar values are millions except per share amounts.\n(*Numbers estimated based on last year's split. Actual numbers to come from the company. Source: Fiscal Q3 2020 report)\nApple is comingoff arguably its best quarter ever. Revenues for the iPhone were up more than 65.5% over the prior-year period, with the Mac up more than 70% and iPad up nearly 79%. Fiscal Q2 overall revenue growth was nearly 54%, so this time around we're looking for about 40% of that figure. Don't forget, on the Q2 conference call, management talked about a $3 billion to $4 billion revenue hit in the June period from supply constraints.\nI'm most curious to see how the iPhone does this time around, as it appears that the 5G supercycle seems to be going pretty well. This year, however, most expectations are that the smartphone will return to its usual September launch period, meaning new phone revenues would be generated in fiscal Q4 again. Last year's coronavirus delayed launch meant sales didn't start until well into October and even November for some models, completely changing the sales trajectory for Apple's current fiscal year. This year's launch isn't expected to see a major upgrade to the phone line itself, so demand trends will probably be more dependent on how many consumers are upgrading to 5G rather than switching to iPhones.\nI'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as well as soaring commodity prices. I don't think we will see a repeat of the 575 basis point increase in product gross margins that Q2 saw this time around, but the iPhone 12 line should still provide a nice year-over-year boost. In the long run, investors will look at growing services margins helping the gross margin percentage overall, but don't forget that the services side of the business has a lot of its expenses on the operating line.\nFor the stock to stay elevated, management is going to need to show that work from home and stimulus money tailwinds are still ongoing. As I discussed in a previous article, estimates call for Apple to see quarterly revenues decline for its March 2022 fiscal period, as the company laps very high previous year bars. While that might bring out some of the bears again, the long-term trajectory still seems positive. Current estimates call for $355 billion in total revenue during this fiscal year with Apple adding another $50 billion to that total over the next three years.\nI hope that management took advantage of the weakness in Apple shares during the quarter for its buyback. Even though the company is spending $20 billion or so every three months, that money doesn't go as far as $145 as it does at $125, obviously. Less shares repurchased means less of an earnings per share benefit, and lower long-term dividend raises. The good news is that Apple is on its way towards $100 billion a year in free cash flow, so investors don't need to worry about capital returns slowing down anytime soon.\nThe major issue for Apple right now is valuation. Shares finished last week trading at 33.4 times their trailing twelve-month earnings. That's basically double the mid-teens numbers from a couple of years ago, helped a lot by easy-money policies around the globe. My current price target of $162 is based on a 30X multiple of $5.40 in EPS for the September 2022 period. That number, however, assumes that the Fed and other central banks will remain fairly accommodative through most of next year. If we start to get a lot of tapering and or rate hikes earlier than expected, the overall market is likely to feel some pain, and I don't see how Apple would be immune from that.\nA strong report from Apple could easily help shares to rise to a new all-time high. But just to play devil's advocate for a minute, what if there is a disappointment or a \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" reaction? Well, shares are quite a bit above their key moving averages as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in orange). As long as Apple can hold the shorter-term trend line, that rising technical level should be one of support. The stock has been able to hold the long-term trend line for quite a while, so I don't see any more than about 14% downside in the near term unless we get a major market pullback.\n(Source: Yahoo! Finance)\nIn the end, expectations for Apple are very high as earnings approach this week. Two massive quarterly beats have sent estimates through the roof, and the stock has recently run to a new all-time high. The market will be looking for signs that the iPhone supercycle has continued while work from home tailwinds have not subsided just yet. Investors hoping that this rally can continue will need to see a strong report, with management hopefully painting a bright sales picture for upcoming fall product launches.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":345,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":822354500,"gmtCreate":1634094509533,"gmtModify":1634094509635,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will the typhoon be gone in the afternoon?","listText":"Will the typhoon be gone in the afternoon?","text":"Will the typhoon be gone in the afternoon?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822354500","repostId":"1189203328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189203328","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634087217,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189203328?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-13 09:06","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189203328","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.\nStorm warning signal No. 8,","content":"<p>Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.</p><p><blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段。</blockquote></p><p> Storm warning signal No. 8, the third-highest on its scale, will remain in force before noon, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Kompasu, which was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) south-southwest of the city at 7 a.m. local time, is forecast to move west at about 25 kilometers an hour toward China’s Hainan Island, it said on its website.</p><p><blockquote>据香港天文台称，八号风暴警告信号是其级别的第三高信号，将在中午之前继续生效。该公司在其网站上表示，当地时间早上7点，康帕苏位于该市西南偏南约370公里（230英里）处，预计将以每小时约25公里的速度向西移动，向中国海南岛移动。</blockquote></p><p> It is likely that securities trading, including the Hong Kong-China stock connect and derivatives market, will be affected for the whole of Wednesday. If the weather warning isn’t lowered before noon, the entire day’s trading will be abandoned.</p><p><blockquote>很可能整个周三证券交易，包括港股通和衍生品市场都将受到影响。如果天气警告在中午之前没有降低，全天的交易将被放弃。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon<blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-13 09:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.</p><p><blockquote>港交所因台风取消早盘交易时段。</blockquote></p><p> Storm warning signal No. 8, the third-highest on its scale, will remain in force before noon, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Kompasu, which was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) south-southwest of the city at 7 a.m. local time, is forecast to move west at about 25 kilometers an hour toward China’s Hainan Island, it said on its website.</p><p><blockquote>据香港天文台称，八号风暴警告信号是其级别的第三高信号，将在中午之前继续生效。该公司在其网站上表示，当地时间早上7点，康帕苏位于该市西南偏南约370公里（230英里）处，预计将以每小时约25公里的速度向西移动，向中国海南岛移动。</blockquote></p><p> It is likely that securities trading, including the Hong Kong-China stock connect and derivatives market, will be affected for the whole of Wednesday. If the weather warning isn’t lowered before noon, the entire day’s trading will be abandoned.</p><p><blockquote>很可能整个周三证券交易，包括港股通和衍生品市场都将受到影响。如果天气警告在中午之前没有降低，全天的交易将被放弃。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSCEI":"国企指数","HSI":"恒生指数","HSCCI":"红筹指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189203328","content_text":"Hong Kong stock exchange cancels morning trading session due to typhoon.\nStorm warning signal No. 8, the third-highest on its scale, will remain in force before noon, according to the Hong Kong Observatory. Kompasu, which was about 370 kilometers (230 miles) south-southwest of the city at 7 a.m. local time, is forecast to move west at about 25 kilometers an hour toward China’s Hainan Island, it said on its website.\nIt is likely that securities trading, including the Hong Kong-China stock connect and derivatives market, will be affected for the whole of Wednesday. If the weather warning isn’t lowered before noon, the entire day’s trading will be abandoned.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSTECH":0.9,"HSI":0.9,"HSCEI":0.9,"HSCCI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":834446426,"gmtCreate":1629822914365,"gmtModify":1631889526818,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Alibaba&nbsp;","listText":"Alibaba&nbsp;","text":"Alibaba","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834446426","repostId":"1189203464","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800755949,"gmtCreate":1627330784981,"gmtModify":1633766132976,"author":{"id":"3586406638423368","authorId":"3586406638423368","name":"MBE","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/819dcae50fc62e5a41b7d625052bd116","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586406638423368","idStr":"3586406638423368"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Thanks&nbsp;","text":"Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800755949","repostId":"1100647798","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100647798","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627313442,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100647798?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100647798","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"After the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple  for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.I'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as we","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares go into report near all-time high.</li>  <li>Estimates surge after two massive beats.</li>  <li>Timing of product launches will shift revenue picture.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股价接近历史新高。</li><li>两次大幅上涨后，预估值飙升。</li><li>产品发布的时间将改变收入状况。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple (AAPL) for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.</p><p><blockquote>周二盘后，我们将收到科技巨头苹果(AAPL)截至6月底的第三财季业绩。由于该公司前两个季度的收益报告超出了华尔街的预期，预期持续上升也就不足为奇了。随着最近几周股价上涨至历史新高，可能需要另一份强劲的报告来维持局面。</blockquote></p><p> For the first half of fiscal 2021, Apple's revenues have beaten street estimates by an average of $10.25 billion per quarter. The fiscal Q3&nbsp;current average estimate&nbsp;is $73.44 billion, which would represent growth of more than 23% from the year-ago period. It's quite impressive that the current average is up more than $13 billion over the past year. On the bottom line, the street is looking for $1.01, growth of more than 56%. In the table below, you can see some Q3 key financial items for the past two years, with the current estimates for this year's period in yellow. Dollar values are millions except per share amounts.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年上半年，苹果的收入平均每季度超出华尔街预期102.5亿美元。第三财季目前的平均预期为734.4亿美元，比去年同期增长23%以上。令人印象深刻的是，目前的平均水平在过去一年中增长了超过130亿美元。从底线来看，华尔街的目标是1.01美元，增长超过56%。在下表中，您可以看到过去两年第三季度的一些关键财务项目，今年同期的当前估计为黄色。除每股金额外，美元价值为数百万。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df8630a7ef0be70113aeac0d50265a57\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(*Numbers estimated based on last year's split. Actual numbers to come from the company. Source: Fiscal Q3 2020 report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（*根据去年的拆分估算的数字。实际数字来自公司。资料来源：2020财年第三季度报告）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple is comingoff arguably&nbsp;its best quarter ever. Revenues for the iPhone were up more than 65.5% over the prior-year period, with the Mac up more than 70% and iPad up nearly 79%. Fiscal Q2 overall revenue growth was nearly 54%, so this time around we're looking for about 40% of that figure. Don't forget, on the&nbsp;Q2 conference call, management talked about a $3 billion to $4 billion revenue hit in the June period from supply constraints.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可以说是有史以来最好的季度。iPhone的收入同比增长超过65.5%，Mac增长超过70%，iPad增长近79%。第二财季整体收入增长近54%，因此这次我们预计这一数字的40%左右。别忘了，在第二季度电话会议上，管理层谈到6月份期间供应限制导致收入损失30亿至40亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I'm most curious to see how the iPhone does this time around, as it appears that the 5G supercycle seems to be going pretty well. This year, however, most expectations are that the smartphone will return to its usual September launch period, meaning new phone revenues would be generated in fiscal Q4 again. Last year's coronavirus delayed launch meant sales didn't start until well into October and even November for some models, completely changing the sales trajectory for Apple's current fiscal year. This year's launch isn't expected to see a major upgrade to the phone line itself, so demand trends will probably be more dependent on how many consumers are upgrading to 5G rather than switching to iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>我最好奇的是这一次iPhone的表现如何，因为5G超级周期似乎进展顺利。然而，今年，大多数人预计智能手机将回到通常的9月发布期，这意味着新手机收入将在第四财季再次产生。去年的冠状病毒推迟了上市，这意味着某些车型直到10月甚至11月才开始销售，这完全改变了苹果本财年的销售轨迹。今年的推出预计不会对电话线本身进行重大升级，因此需求趋势可能更多地取决于有多少消费者升级到5G，而不是转向iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> I'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as well as soaring commodity prices. I don't think we will see a repeat of the 575 basis point increase in product gross margins that Q2 saw this time around, but the iPhone 12 line should still provide a nice year-over-year boost. In the long run, investors will look at growing services margins helping the gross margin percentage overall, but don't forget that the services side of the business has a lot of its expenses on the operating line.</p><p><blockquote>我相信分析师也将关注苹果如何应对芯片短缺和大宗商品价格飙升的问题。我认为我们不会看到第二季度产品毛利率增长575个基点的重演，但iPhone 12系列仍然应该会带来不错的同比增长。从长远来看，投资者将关注不断增长的服务利润率，以帮助提高整体毛利率，但不要忘记，业务的服务方面在运营方面有大量费用。</blockquote></p><p> For the stock to stay elevated, management is going to need to show that work from home and stimulus money tailwinds are still ongoing. As I discussed in&nbsp;a previous article, estimates call for Apple to see quarterly revenues decline for its March 2022 fiscal period, as the company laps very high previous year bars. While that might bring out some of the bears again, the long-term trajectory still seems positive. Current estimates call for $355 billion in total revenue during this fiscal year with Apple adding another $50 billion to that total over the next three years.</p><p><blockquote>为了使股价保持高位，管理层需要证明在家工作和刺激资金的顺风仍在持续。正如我在上一篇文章中讨论的那样，看涨期权预计苹果2022年3月财年的季度收入将下降，因为该公司去年的收入水平非常高。虽然这可能会再次引发一些空头，但长期轨迹似乎仍然是积极的。目前估计看涨期权本财年的总收入为3550亿美元，苹果将在未来三年内再增加500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I hope that management took advantage of the weakness in Apple shares during the quarter for its buyback. Even though the company is spending $20 billion or so every three months, that money doesn't go as far as $145 as it does at $125, obviously. Less shares repurchased means less of an earnings per share benefit, and lower long-term dividend raises. The good news is that Apple is on its way towards $100 billion a year in free cash flow, so investors don't need to worry about capital returns slowing down anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>我希望管理层利用本季度苹果股价疲软的机会进行回购。尽管该公司每三个月花费200亿美元左右，但这笔钱显然不会像125美元那样达到145美元。回购的股票越少意味着每股收益收益越少，长期股息提高也越低。好消息是，苹果的自由现金流即将达到每年1000亿美元，因此投资者无需担心资本回报会很快放缓。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The major issue for Apple right now is valuation. Shares finished last week trading at 33.4 times their trailing twelve-month earnings. That's basically double the mid-teens numbers from a couple of years ago, helped a lot by easy-money policies around the globe. My current price target of $162 is based on a 30X multiple of $5.40 in EPS for the September 2022 period. That number, however, assumes that the Fed and other central banks will remain fairly accommodative through most of next year. If we start to get a lot of tapering and or rate hikes earlier than expected, the overall market is likely to feel some pain, and I don't see how Apple would be immune from that.</p><p><blockquote>苹果目前的主要问题是估值。上周股价是过去12个月市盈率的33.4倍。这基本上是几年前青少年人数的两倍，这在很大程度上得益于全球宽松货币政策。我目前162美元的目标价是基于2022年9月期间每股收益5.40美元的30倍。然而，这个数字是假设美联储和其他央行在明年大部分时间里将保持相当宽松的政策。如果我们比预期更早地开始大量缩减和/或加息，整个市场可能会感到一些痛苦，我看不出苹果会如何免受此影响。</blockquote></p><p> A strong report from Apple could easily help shares to rise to a new all-time high. But just to play devil's advocate for a minute, what if there is a disappointment or a \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" reaction? Well, shares are quite a bit above their key moving averages as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in orange). As long as Apple can hold the shorter-term trend line, that rising technical level should be one of support. The stock has been able to hold the long-term trend line for quite a while, so I don't see any more than about 14% downside in the near term unless we get a major market pullback.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的强劲报告很容易帮助股价升至历史新高。但只是为了唱反调一分钟，如果出现失望或“买入谣言，卖出新闻”的反应怎么办？嗯，股价远高于其关键移动平均线，如下图所示（紫色为50日，橙色为200日）。只要苹果能够守住短期趋势线，上涨的技术水平应该是支撑之一。该股已经能够在相当长一段时间内保持长期趋势线，因此我认为短期内的下跌幅度不会超过14%左右，除非市场出现重大回调。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc37ee144edb22fd36fcd15cf5fc3470\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Yahoo! Finance)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：雅虎财经）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the end, expectations for Apple are very high as earnings approach this week. Two massive quarterly beats have sent estimates through the roof, and the stock has recently run to a new all-time high. The market will be looking for signs that the iPhone supercycle has continued while work from home tailwinds have not subsided just yet. Investors hoping that this rally can continue will need to see a strong report, with management hopefully painting a bright sales picture for upcoming fall product launches.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着本周财报的临近，人们对苹果的期望非常高。两个巨大的季度业绩超出了预期，该股最近创下了历史新高。市场将寻找iPhone超级周期仍在继续的迹象，而在家工作的顺风尚未消退。希望这种涨势能够持续下去的投资者需要看到一份强劲的报告，管理层希望为即将到来的秋季产品发布描绘一幅光明的销售图景。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 23:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares go into report near all-time high.</li>  <li>Estimates surge after two massive beats.</li>  <li>Timing of product launches will shift revenue picture.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股价接近历史新高。</li><li>两次大幅上涨后，预估值飙升。</li><li>产品发布的时间将改变收入状况。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple (AAPL) for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.</p><p><blockquote>周二盘后，我们将收到科技巨头苹果(AAPL)截至6月底的第三财季业绩。由于该公司前两个季度的收益报告超出了华尔街的预期，预期持续上升也就不足为奇了。随着最近几周股价上涨至历史新高，可能需要另一份强劲的报告来维持局面。</blockquote></p><p> For the first half of fiscal 2021, Apple's revenues have beaten street estimates by an average of $10.25 billion per quarter. The fiscal Q3&nbsp;current average estimate&nbsp;is $73.44 billion, which would represent growth of more than 23% from the year-ago period. It's quite impressive that the current average is up more than $13 billion over the past year. On the bottom line, the street is looking for $1.01, growth of more than 56%. In the table below, you can see some Q3 key financial items for the past two years, with the current estimates for this year's period in yellow. Dollar values are millions except per share amounts.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年上半年，苹果的收入平均每季度超出华尔街预期102.5亿美元。第三财季目前的平均预期为734.4亿美元，比去年同期增长23%以上。令人印象深刻的是，目前的平均水平在过去一年中增长了超过130亿美元。从底线来看，华尔街的目标是1.01美元，增长超过56%。在下表中，您可以看到过去两年第三季度的一些关键财务项目，今年同期的当前估计为黄色。除每股金额外，美元价值为数百万。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df8630a7ef0be70113aeac0d50265a57\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(*Numbers estimated based on last year's split. Actual numbers to come from the company. Source: Fiscal Q3 2020 report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（*根据去年的拆分估算的数字。实际数字来自公司。资料来源：2020财年第三季度报告）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple is comingoff arguably&nbsp;its best quarter ever. Revenues for the iPhone were up more than 65.5% over the prior-year period, with the Mac up more than 70% and iPad up nearly 79%. Fiscal Q2 overall revenue growth was nearly 54%, so this time around we're looking for about 40% of that figure. Don't forget, on the&nbsp;Q2 conference call, management talked about a $3 billion to $4 billion revenue hit in the June period from supply constraints.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可以说是有史以来最好的季度。iPhone的收入同比增长超过65.5%，Mac增长超过70%，iPad增长近79%。第二财季整体收入增长近54%，因此这次我们预计这一数字的40%左右。别忘了，在第二季度电话会议上，管理层谈到6月份期间供应限制导致收入损失30亿至40亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I'm most curious to see how the iPhone does this time around, as it appears that the 5G supercycle seems to be going pretty well. This year, however, most expectations are that the smartphone will return to its usual September launch period, meaning new phone revenues would be generated in fiscal Q4 again. Last year's coronavirus delayed launch meant sales didn't start until well into October and even November for some models, completely changing the sales trajectory for Apple's current fiscal year. This year's launch isn't expected to see a major upgrade to the phone line itself, so demand trends will probably be more dependent on how many consumers are upgrading to 5G rather than switching to iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>我最好奇的是这一次iPhone的表现如何，因为5G超级周期似乎进展顺利。然而，今年，大多数人预计智能手机将回到通常的9月发布期，这意味着新手机收入将在第四财季再次产生。去年的冠状病毒推迟了上市，这意味着某些车型直到10月甚至11月才开始销售，这完全改变了苹果本财年的销售轨迹。今年的推出预计不会对电话线本身进行重大升级，因此需求趋势可能更多地取决于有多少消费者升级到5G，而不是转向iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> I'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as well as soaring commodity prices. I don't think we will see a repeat of the 575 basis point increase in product gross margins that Q2 saw this time around, but the iPhone 12 line should still provide a nice year-over-year boost. In the long run, investors will look at growing services margins helping the gross margin percentage overall, but don't forget that the services side of the business has a lot of its expenses on the operating line.</p><p><blockquote>我相信分析师也将关注苹果如何应对芯片短缺和大宗商品价格飙升的问题。我认为我们不会看到第二季度产品毛利率增长575个基点的重演，但iPhone 12系列仍然应该会带来不错的同比增长。从长远来看，投资者将关注不断增长的服务利润率，以帮助提高整体毛利率，但不要忘记，业务的服务方面在运营方面有大量费用。</blockquote></p><p> For the stock to stay elevated, management is going to need to show that work from home and stimulus money tailwinds are still ongoing. As I discussed in&nbsp;a previous article, estimates call for Apple to see quarterly revenues decline for its March 2022 fiscal period, as the company laps very high previous year bars. While that might bring out some of the bears again, the long-term trajectory still seems positive. Current estimates call for $355 billion in total revenue during this fiscal year with Apple adding another $50 billion to that total over the next three years.</p><p><blockquote>为了使股价保持高位，管理层需要证明在家工作和刺激资金的顺风仍在持续。正如我在上一篇文章中讨论的那样，看涨期权预计苹果2022年3月财年的季度收入将下降，因为该公司去年的收入水平非常高。虽然这可能会再次引发一些空头，但长期轨迹似乎仍然是积极的。目前估计看涨期权本财年的总收入为3550亿美元，苹果将在未来三年内再增加500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I hope that management took advantage of the weakness in Apple shares during the quarter for its buyback. Even though the company is spending $20 billion or so every three months, that money doesn't go as far as $145 as it does at $125, obviously. Less shares repurchased means less of an earnings per share benefit, and lower long-term dividend raises. The good news is that Apple is on its way towards $100 billion a year in free cash flow, so investors don't need to worry about capital returns slowing down anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>我希望管理层利用本季度苹果股价疲软的机会进行回购。尽管该公司每三个月花费200亿美元左右，但这笔钱显然不会像125美元那样达到145美元。回购的股票越少意味着每股收益收益越少，长期股息提高也越低。好消息是，苹果的自由现金流即将达到每年1000亿美元，因此投资者无需担心资本回报会很快放缓。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The major issue for Apple right now is valuation. Shares finished last week trading at 33.4 times their trailing twelve-month earnings. That's basically double the mid-teens numbers from a couple of years ago, helped a lot by easy-money policies around the globe. My current price target of $162 is based on a 30X multiple of $5.40 in EPS for the September 2022 period. That number, however, assumes that the Fed and other central banks will remain fairly accommodative through most of next year. If we start to get a lot of tapering and or rate hikes earlier than expected, the overall market is likely to feel some pain, and I don't see how Apple would be immune from that.</p><p><blockquote>苹果目前的主要问题是估值。上周股价是过去12个月市盈率的33.4倍。这基本上是几年前青少年人数的两倍，这在很大程度上得益于全球宽松货币政策。我目前162美元的目标价是基于2022年9月期间每股收益5.40美元的30倍。然而，这个数字是假设美联储和其他央行在明年大部分时间里将保持相当宽松的政策。如果我们比预期更早地开始大量缩减和/或加息，整个市场可能会感到一些痛苦，我看不出苹果会如何免受此影响。</blockquote></p><p> A strong report from Apple could easily help shares to rise to a new all-time high. But just to play devil's advocate for a minute, what if there is a disappointment or a \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" reaction? Well, shares are quite a bit above their key moving averages as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in orange). As long as Apple can hold the shorter-term trend line, that rising technical level should be one of support. The stock has been able to hold the long-term trend line for quite a while, so I don't see any more than about 14% downside in the near term unless we get a major market pullback.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的强劲报告很容易帮助股价升至历史新高。但只是为了唱反调一分钟，如果出现失望或“买入谣言，卖出新闻”的反应怎么办？嗯，股价远高于其关键移动平均线，如下图所示（紫色为50日，橙色为200日）。只要苹果能够守住短期趋势线，上涨的技术水平应该是支撑之一。该股已经能够在相当长一段时间内保持长期趋势线，因此我认为短期内的下跌幅度不会超过14%左右，除非市场出现重大回调。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc37ee144edb22fd36fcd15cf5fc3470\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Yahoo! Finance)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：雅虎财经）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the end, expectations for Apple are very high as earnings approach this week. Two massive quarterly beats have sent estimates through the roof, and the stock has recently run to a new all-time high. The market will be looking for signs that the iPhone supercycle has continued while work from home tailwinds have not subsided just yet. Investors hoping that this rally can continue will need to see a strong report, with management hopefully painting a bright sales picture for upcoming fall product launches.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着本周财报的临近，人们对苹果的期望非常高。两个巨大的季度业绩超出了预期，该股最近创下了历史新高。市场将寻找iPhone超级周期仍在继续的迹象，而在家工作的顺风尚未消退。希望这种涨势能够持续下去的投资者需要看到一份强劲的报告，管理层希望为即将到来的秋季产品发布描绘一幅光明的销售图景。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441375-apple-earnings-face-high-expectations\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441375-apple-earnings-face-high-expectations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100647798","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares go into report near all-time high.\nEstimates surge after two massive beats.\nTiming of product launches will shift revenue picture.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nAfter the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple (AAPL) for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.\nFor the first half of fiscal 2021, Apple's revenues have beaten street estimates by an average of $10.25 billion per quarter. The fiscal Q3 current average estimate is $73.44 billion, which would represent growth of more than 23% from the year-ago period. It's quite impressive that the current average is up more than $13 billion over the past year. On the bottom line, the street is looking for $1.01, growth of more than 56%. In the table below, you can see some Q3 key financial items for the past two years, with the current estimates for this year's period in yellow. Dollar values are millions except per share amounts.\n(*Numbers estimated based on last year's split. Actual numbers to come from the company. Source: Fiscal Q3 2020 report)\nApple is comingoff arguably its best quarter ever. Revenues for the iPhone were up more than 65.5% over the prior-year period, with the Mac up more than 70% and iPad up nearly 79%. Fiscal Q2 overall revenue growth was nearly 54%, so this time around we're looking for about 40% of that figure. Don't forget, on the Q2 conference call, management talked about a $3 billion to $4 billion revenue hit in the June period from supply constraints.\nI'm most curious to see how the iPhone does this time around, as it appears that the 5G supercycle seems to be going pretty well. This year, however, most expectations are that the smartphone will return to its usual September launch period, meaning new phone revenues would be generated in fiscal Q4 again. Last year's coronavirus delayed launch meant sales didn't start until well into October and even November for some models, completely changing the sales trajectory for Apple's current fiscal year. This year's launch isn't expected to see a major upgrade to the phone line itself, so demand trends will probably be more dependent on how many consumers are upgrading to 5G rather than switching to iPhones.\nI'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as well as soaring commodity prices. I don't think we will see a repeat of the 575 basis point increase in product gross margins that Q2 saw this time around, but the iPhone 12 line should still provide a nice year-over-year boost. In the long run, investors will look at growing services margins helping the gross margin percentage overall, but don't forget that the services side of the business has a lot of its expenses on the operating line.\nFor the stock to stay elevated, management is going to need to show that work from home and stimulus money tailwinds are still ongoing. As I discussed in a previous article, estimates call for Apple to see quarterly revenues decline for its March 2022 fiscal period, as the company laps very high previous year bars. While that might bring out some of the bears again, the long-term trajectory still seems positive. Current estimates call for $355 billion in total revenue during this fiscal year with Apple adding another $50 billion to that total over the next three years.\nI hope that management took advantage of the weakness in Apple shares during the quarter for its buyback. Even though the company is spending $20 billion or so every three months, that money doesn't go as far as $145 as it does at $125, obviously. Less shares repurchased means less of an earnings per share benefit, and lower long-term dividend raises. The good news is that Apple is on its way towards $100 billion a year in free cash flow, so investors don't need to worry about capital returns slowing down anytime soon.\nThe major issue for Apple right now is valuation. Shares finished last week trading at 33.4 times their trailing twelve-month earnings. That's basically double the mid-teens numbers from a couple of years ago, helped a lot by easy-money policies around the globe. My current price target of $162 is based on a 30X multiple of $5.40 in EPS for the September 2022 period. That number, however, assumes that the Fed and other central banks will remain fairly accommodative through most of next year. If we start to get a lot of tapering and or rate hikes earlier than expected, the overall market is likely to feel some pain, and I don't see how Apple would be immune from that.\nA strong report from Apple could easily help shares to rise to a new all-time high. But just to play devil's advocate for a minute, what if there is a disappointment or a \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" reaction? Well, shares are quite a bit above their key moving averages as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in orange). As long as Apple can hold the shorter-term trend line, that rising technical level should be one of support. The stock has been able to hold the long-term trend line for quite a while, so I don't see any more than about 14% downside in the near term unless we get a major market pullback.\n(Source: Yahoo! Finance)\nIn the end, expectations for Apple are very high as earnings approach this week. Two massive quarterly beats have sent estimates through the roof, and the stock has recently run to a new all-time high. The market will be looking for signs that the iPhone supercycle has continued while work from home tailwinds have not subsided just yet. Investors hoping that this rally can continue will need to see a strong report, with management hopefully painting a bright sales picture for upcoming fall product launches.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}