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2021-08-01

买卖股票之前，还是要做些功课。

Here’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>这是股市下一次暴跌之前您的待办事项清单</blockquote>

2021-07-29

耐心等待

S&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote>

2021-07-27

很多人是苹果的粉丝，我也喜欢用ipad. 所以对它有信心。

Apple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote>

2021-09-10

Noted. Thank you

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-15

谢谢提供信息，让我们分享。我买股票因为除了可以赚钱，还希望有股息分。耐心等待

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-10

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-11

事事难料，见好就收。

The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>

2021-07-09

Okay

Oil prices firm as U.S. inventories decline<blockquote>美国库存下降油价坚挺</blockquote>

2021-07-14

最期待IPO了，幸运的话，会让你赚一笔💰

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-09

Noted

GameStop Short Seller Melvin Capital Ended 2021 First-Half With 46% Loss: Report<blockquote>游戏驿站卖空者Melvin Capital 2021年上半年亏损46%：报告</blockquote>

2021-07-04

先观望再准备进场

These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>

2021-07-15

节节攀升，让人又惊又喜。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-15

谢谢分享

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-14

有很多事是普通老百姓无法理解的。

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-09

Thank you for informing

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-04

Noted

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-02

还是先看看市场走势，再做决定比较保险

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-09

Ok

Oil prices firm as U.S. inventories decline<blockquote>美国库存下降油价坚挺</blockquote>

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Thank you","listText":"Noted. Thank you","text":"Noted. Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883626869","repostId":"1119421769","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802629062,"gmtCreate":1627777869656,"gmtModify":1631889065885,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"买卖股票之前，还是要做些功课。","listText":"买卖股票之前，还是要做些功课。","text":"买卖股票之前，还是要做些功课。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802629062","repostId":"1127411624","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127411624","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627715622,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127411624?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>这是股市下一次暴跌之前您的待办事项清单</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127411624","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. 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No one wanted to be the last one out, so retail traders and institutions sold in a panic, which got more intense as the day went on.</p><p><blockquote>事实是没人知道。人们出售有多种原因，因此将责任归咎于一个事件是荒谬的。也就是说，下降的一个重要原因是计算机生成的自动销售。一旦大型市场参与者，尤其是算法，开始抛售，就会出现疯狂的抛售。没有人想成为最后一个出局的人，因此散户和机构在恐慌中抛售，随着时间的推移，恐慌情绪变得更加强烈。</blockquote></p><p> Technical indicators contributed as well: The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been remarkably accurate in warning of a market reversal. Once RSI goes over 70 and stays there, buyers beware.&nbsp; After the July 26 market close, the RSI of the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.54%stood at 71.36 on the weekly chart — an extremely overbought reading. Does this mean that the index is going to plunge tomorrow? No one knows. But RSI is giving a clue that the U.S. market is in the danger zone.</p><p><blockquote>技术指标也做出了贡献：每周相对强弱指标（RSI）在警告市场逆转方面非常准确。一旦RSI超过70并保持在那里，买家就要小心了。7月26日收盘后，标准普尔500SPX的RSI，-0.54%在周线图上站在71.36——这是一个极度超买的读数。这是不是意味着指数明天要暴跌了？没人知道。但RSI给出了美国市场处于危险区域的线索。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bad news bears can’t catch a break</b></p><p><blockquote><b>坏消息空头无法休息</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the bears could say, “I told you so,” the next day, July 20, the 700-plus point Dow selloff was erased by a 550-point Dow rally. The bulls forgot about the selloff and returned to celebrating, and gulping glass after glass of their favorite drink, “bull-ade.” Once again, the storm passed, but this time a little fear creeped into the bulls’ psyche. Before, the only fear was the fear of missing out on the next rally. Now, many investors realize the market can actually go down.</p><p><blockquote>在空头说“我告诉过你”之前，第二天，即7月20日，道琼斯指数700多点的抛售被道琼斯指数550点的反弹抹去了。多头忘记了抛售，重新开始庆祝，一杯又一杯地喝着他们最喜欢的饮料“bull-ade”。风暴又一次过去了，但这一次有点恐惧爬进了公牛的心灵。之前，唯一的恐惧是害怕错过下一次反弹。现在，许多投资者意识到市场实际上可能会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> The next time the market plunges and you’re experiencing a variety of emotions, the following guide might help:</p><p><blockquote>下次市场暴跌并且您正在经历各种情绪时，以下指南可能会有所帮助：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. If you’re panicked</b>: Don’t do something; sit there. Do not buy, do not sell, just sit tight. In fact, turn off the computer or other devices. Don’t fret over how much paper money you lost that day. Exercise, walk, run, swim, ride a bike. Your goal is to reduce emotions so you can get a good night’s sleep. When the market stabilizes, reevaluate what you own. Do not make any big financial decisions on days like this.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.如果你感到恐慌</b>：不做某事；坐在那里。不买，不卖，坐稳。事实上，关掉电脑或其他设备。不要担心那天你丢了多少纸币。锻炼，散步，跑步，游泳，骑自行车。你的目标是减少情绪，这样你就能睡个好觉。当市场稳定时，重新评估你所拥有的。在这样的日子里，不要做任何重大的财务决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. If you’re afraid</b>: Take it easy. The selloff will end eventually. There is no reason to panic. Again, reevaluate what you own when the market comes to its senses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2.如果你害怕</b>：放轻松。抛售最终会结束。没有理由恐慌。同样，当市场恢复理智时，重新评估你所拥有的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. If you’re unaffected:</b>Still, check your portfolio to make sure you are properly diversified. While it’s find to not care if the market falls, be sure you are hedged for a worst-case scenario. One day there will be a bear market that will last months or years. Be prepared.</p><p><blockquote><b>3.如果您没有受到影响：</b>不过，请检查您的投资组合以确保您的投资组合适当多元化。虽然人们发现不要关心市场是否下跌，但要确保你为最坏的情况做好了对冲。总有一天会出现持续数月或数年的熊市。做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What specific actions should you take?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你应该采取什么具体行动？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now that you’ve taken care of your emotional health, there are other financial decisions you can make. Let’s take a look atsome strategies and tacticsthat may help:</p><p><blockquote>既然你已经照顾好了自己的情绪健康，你还可以做出其他的财务决定。让我们来看看一些可能有帮助的战略和战术：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Sell if the stocks or indexes you own fall below their 200-day moving averages. Note: The major indexes such as the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500SPX,-0.54%have not fallen below (and stayed below) their 200-day averages for a decade. When they do eventually, that is a clear sell signal.</li>  <li>Create a long-term investment plan and follow it no matter what happens in the short term.</li>  <li>Dollar-cost average into index funds.</li>  <li>Diversify. This is the key to success in the stock market and in life. If you own only stocks, consider bonds, but talk to a financial professional (not your neighbor) before taking this step.</li>  <li>Buy the big dips. This strategy still works. If you had bought the dip on July 19, you would have cleaned up on July 20. One day this strategy won’t work, but that day hasn’t come yet.</li>  <li>Sell covered-call options. This is still an excellent way to generate extra income. This strategy is also ideal for disposing of unwanted stocks, and getting paid for it.</li> </ol> <b>Plan for the next correction or bear market</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果您持有的股票或指数跌破200日移动平均线，则卖出。注：标准普尔500SPX,-0.54%等主要指数十年来没有跌破（并保持在低于）200日平均水平。当他们最终这样做时，这是一个明确的卖出信号。</li><li>制定一个长期投资计划，无论短期内发生什么都要遵循它。</li><li>指数基金的平均成本。</li><li>多样化。这是股市和人生成功的关键。如果您只持有股票，请考虑债券，但在采取这一步骤之前请与金融专业人士（而不是您的邻居）交谈。</li><li>逢低买入。这个策略仍然有效。如果你在7月19日逢低买入，你就会在7月20日清理干净。总有一天这种策略行不通了，但那一天还没有到来。</li><li>出售备兑看涨期权期权。这仍然是产生额外收入的绝佳方式。这种策略也非常适合处理不需要的股票并获得报酬。</li></ol><b>为下一次调整或熊市做好计划</b></blockquote></p><p> After a 13-year bull market, the clock is ticking for U.S. stocks. While the bulls scored another victory this time, one day the market won’t reverse direction and will begin a steep correction, or worse yet, a bear market. That’s when you will be glad that you have a plan and an investment script to follow on the worst days.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了13年的牛市之后，美国股市的时间已经不多了。虽然多头这次又取得了胜利，但有一天市场不会逆转方向，将开始急剧调整，或者更糟的是，进入熊市。那时你会很高兴你有一个计划和一个在最糟糕的日子里可以遵循的投资脚本。</blockquote></p><p> Know what you own, sell to the “sleep-well” point and diversify into a variety of financial products including cash and bonds. This way, when the market plunges again, you won’t make knee-jerk emotional decisions or suffer an anxiety attack.</p><p><blockquote>了解您拥有什么，将其出售到“睡眠良好”点，并多元化投资于包括现金和债券在内的各种金融产品。这样，当市场再次暴跌时，你就不会做出下意识的情绪化决定或遭受焦虑发作。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>这是股市下一次暴跌之前您的待办事项清单</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>这是股市下一次暴跌之前您的待办事项清单</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.42%tumbled 725 points or 2.1%. The bears hit a home run — at least for a day.</p><p><blockquote>经过几个月的冬眠，股市空头于7月19日走出了洞穴。当天，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA下跌725点，跌幅2.1%，-0.42%。熊队打出了一个本垒打——至少一天。</blockquote></p><p> As usual, everyone wanted to know why the market fell, and the analysts had prepared answers, from COVID-19’s Delta variant to the Consumer Price Index to overbought technical indicators.</p><p><blockquote>像往常一样，每个人都想知道市场下跌的原因，分析师们已经准备好了答案，从COVID-19的德尔塔变异毒株到消费者价格指数，再到超买的技术指标。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that nobody knows. People have multiple reasons for selling, so it’s ridiculous to blame one event. That said, a big contributor to the decline was automatic, computer-generated selling. Once large market participants, especially algos, started selling, there was a mad rush out of the door. No one wanted to be the last one out, so retail traders and institutions sold in a panic, which got more intense as the day went on.</p><p><blockquote>事实是没人知道。人们出售有多种原因，因此将责任归咎于一个事件是荒谬的。也就是说，下降的一个重要原因是计算机生成的自动销售。一旦大型市场参与者，尤其是算法，开始抛售，就会出现疯狂的抛售。没有人想成为最后一个出局的人，因此散户和机构在恐慌中抛售，随着时间的推移，恐慌情绪变得更加强烈。</blockquote></p><p> Technical indicators contributed as well: The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been remarkably accurate in warning of a market reversal. Once RSI goes over 70 and stays there, buyers beware.&nbsp; After the July 26 market close, the RSI of the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.54%stood at 71.36 on the weekly chart — an extremely overbought reading. Does this mean that the index is going to plunge tomorrow? No one knows. But RSI is giving a clue that the U.S. market is in the danger zone.</p><p><blockquote>技术指标也做出了贡献：每周相对强弱指标（RSI）在警告市场逆转方面非常准确。一旦RSI超过70并保持在那里，买家就要小心了。7月26日收盘后，标准普尔500SPX的RSI，-0.54%在周线图上站在71.36——这是一个极度超买的读数。这是不是意味着指数明天要暴跌了？没人知道。但RSI给出了美国市场处于危险区域的线索。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bad news bears can’t catch a break</b></p><p><blockquote><b>坏消息空头无法休息</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the bears could say, “I told you so,” the next day, July 20, the 700-plus point Dow selloff was erased by a 550-point Dow rally. The bulls forgot about the selloff and returned to celebrating, and gulping glass after glass of their favorite drink, “bull-ade.” Once again, the storm passed, but this time a little fear creeped into the bulls’ psyche. Before, the only fear was the fear of missing out on the next rally. Now, many investors realize the market can actually go down.</p><p><blockquote>在空头说“我告诉过你”之前，第二天，即7月20日，道琼斯指数700多点的抛售被道琼斯指数550点的反弹抹去了。多头忘记了抛售，重新开始庆祝，一杯又一杯地喝着他们最喜欢的饮料“bull-ade”。风暴又一次过去了，但这一次有点恐惧爬进了公牛的心灵。之前，唯一的恐惧是害怕错过下一次反弹。现在，许多投资者意识到市场实际上可能会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> The next time the market plunges and you’re experiencing a variety of emotions, the following guide might help:</p><p><blockquote>下次市场暴跌并且您正在经历各种情绪时，以下指南可能会有所帮助：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. If you’re panicked</b>: Don’t do something; sit there. Do not buy, do not sell, just sit tight. In fact, turn off the computer or other devices. Don’t fret over how much paper money you lost that day. Exercise, walk, run, swim, ride a bike. Your goal is to reduce emotions so you can get a good night’s sleep. When the market stabilizes, reevaluate what you own. Do not make any big financial decisions on days like this.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.如果你感到恐慌</b>：不做某事；坐在那里。不买，不卖，坐稳。事实上，关掉电脑或其他设备。不要担心那天你丢了多少纸币。锻炼，散步，跑步，游泳，骑自行车。你的目标是减少情绪，这样你就能睡个好觉。当市场稳定时，重新评估你所拥有的。在这样的日子里，不要做任何重大的财务决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. If you’re afraid</b>: Take it easy. The selloff will end eventually. There is no reason to panic. Again, reevaluate what you own when the market comes to its senses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2.如果你害怕</b>：放轻松。抛售最终会结束。没有理由恐慌。同样，当市场恢复理智时，重新评估你所拥有的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. If you’re unaffected:</b>Still, check your portfolio to make sure you are properly diversified. While it’s find to not care if the market falls, be sure you are hedged for a worst-case scenario. One day there will be a bear market that will last months or years. Be prepared.</p><p><blockquote><b>3.如果您没有受到影响：</b>不过，请检查您的投资组合以确保您的投资组合适当多元化。虽然人们发现不要关心市场是否下跌，但要确保你为最坏的情况做好了对冲。总有一天会出现持续数月或数年的熊市。做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What specific actions should you take?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你应该采取什么具体行动？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now that you’ve taken care of your emotional health, there are other financial decisions you can make. Let’s take a look atsome strategies and tacticsthat may help:</p><p><blockquote>既然你已经照顾好了自己的情绪健康，你还可以做出其他的财务决定。让我们来看看一些可能有帮助的战略和战术：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Sell if the stocks or indexes you own fall below their 200-day moving averages. Note: The major indexes such as the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500SPX,-0.54%have not fallen below (and stayed below) their 200-day averages for a decade. When they do eventually, that is a clear sell signal.</li>  <li>Create a long-term investment plan and follow it no matter what happens in the short term.</li>  <li>Dollar-cost average into index funds.</li>  <li>Diversify. This is the key to success in the stock market and in life. If you own only stocks, consider bonds, but talk to a financial professional (not your neighbor) before taking this step.</li>  <li>Buy the big dips. This strategy still works. If you had bought the dip on July 19, you would have cleaned up on July 20. One day this strategy won’t work, but that day hasn’t come yet.</li>  <li>Sell covered-call options. This is still an excellent way to generate extra income. This strategy is also ideal for disposing of unwanted stocks, and getting paid for it.</li> </ol> <b>Plan for the next correction or bear market</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果您持有的股票或指数跌破200日移动平均线，则卖出。注：标准普尔500SPX,-0.54%等主要指数十年来没有跌破（并保持在低于）200日平均水平。当他们最终这样做时，这是一个明确的卖出信号。</li><li>制定一个长期投资计划，无论短期内发生什么都要遵循它。</li><li>指数基金的平均成本。</li><li>多样化。这是股市和人生成功的关键。如果您只持有股票，请考虑债券，但在采取这一步骤之前请与金融专业人士（而不是您的邻居）交谈。</li><li>逢低买入。这个策略仍然有效。如果你在7月19日逢低买入，你就会在7月20日清理干净。总有一天这种策略行不通了，但那一天还没有到来。</li><li>出售备兑看涨期权期权。这仍然是产生额外收入的绝佳方式。这种策略也非常适合处理不需要的股票并获得报酬。</li></ol><b>为下一次调整或熊市做好计划</b></blockquote></p><p> After a 13-year bull market, the clock is ticking for U.S. stocks. While the bulls scored another victory this time, one day the market won’t reverse direction and will begin a steep correction, or worse yet, a bear market. That’s when you will be glad that you have a plan and an investment script to follow on the worst days.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了13年的牛市之后，美国股市的时间已经不多了。虽然多头这次又取得了胜利，但有一天市场不会逆转方向，将开始急剧调整，或者更糟的是，进入熊市。那时你会很高兴你有一个计划和一个在最糟糕的日子里可以遵循的投资脚本。</blockquote></p><p> Know what you own, sell to the “sleep-well” point and diversify into a variety of financial products including cash and bonds. This way, when the market plunges again, you won’t make knee-jerk emotional decisions or suffer an anxiety attack.</p><p><blockquote>了解您拥有什么，将其出售到“睡眠良好”点，并多元化投资于包括现金和债券在内的各种金融产品。这样，当市场再次暴跌时，你就不会做出下意识的情绪化决定或遭受焦虑发作。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-your-to-do-list-before-the-stock-markets-next-dive-11627360870?mod=article_inline\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-your-to-do-list-before-the-stock-markets-next-dive-11627360870?mod=article_inline","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127411624","content_text":"After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.42%tumbled 725 points or 2.1%. The bears hit a home run — at least for a day.\nAs usual, everyone wanted to know why the market fell, and the analysts had prepared answers, from COVID-19’s Delta variant to the Consumer Price Index to overbought technical indicators.\nThe truth is that nobody knows. People have multiple reasons for selling, so it’s ridiculous to blame one event. That said, a big contributor to the decline was automatic, computer-generated selling. Once large market participants, especially algos, started selling, there was a mad rush out of the door. No one wanted to be the last one out, so retail traders and institutions sold in a panic, which got more intense as the day went on.\nTechnical indicators contributed as well: The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been remarkably accurate in warning of a market reversal. Once RSI goes over 70 and stays there, buyers beware.  After the July 26 market close, the RSI of the S&P 500SPX,-0.54%stood at 71.36 on the weekly chart — an extremely overbought reading. Does this mean that the index is going to plunge tomorrow? No one knows. But RSI is giving a clue that the U.S. market is in the danger zone.\nThe bad news bears can’t catch a break\nBefore the bears could say, “I told you so,” the next day, July 20, the 700-plus point Dow selloff was erased by a 550-point Dow rally. The bulls forgot about the selloff and returned to celebrating, and gulping glass after glass of their favorite drink, “bull-ade.” Once again, the storm passed, but this time a little fear creeped into the bulls’ psyche. Before, the only fear was the fear of missing out on the next rally. Now, many investors realize the market can actually go down.\nWhat to do now\nThe next time the market plunges and you’re experiencing a variety of emotions, the following guide might help:\n1. If you’re panicked: Don’t do something; sit there. Do not buy, do not sell, just sit tight. In fact, turn off the computer or other devices. Don’t fret over how much paper money you lost that day. Exercise, walk, run, swim, ride a bike. Your goal is to reduce emotions so you can get a good night’s sleep. When the market stabilizes, reevaluate what you own. Do not make any big financial decisions on days like this.\n2. If you’re afraid: Take it easy. The selloff will end eventually. There is no reason to panic. Again, reevaluate what you own when the market comes to its senses.\n3. If you’re unaffected:Still, check your portfolio to make sure you are properly diversified. While it’s find to not care if the market falls, be sure you are hedged for a worst-case scenario. One day there will be a bear market that will last months or years. Be prepared.\nWhat specific actions should you take?\nNow that you’ve taken care of your emotional health, there are other financial decisions you can make. Let’s take a look atsome strategies and tacticsthat may help:\n\nSell if the stocks or indexes you own fall below their 200-day moving averages. Note: The major indexes such as the Standard & Poor’s 500SPX,-0.54%have not fallen below (and stayed below) their 200-day averages for a decade. When they do eventually, that is a clear sell signal.\nCreate a long-term investment plan and follow it no matter what happens in the short term.\nDollar-cost average into index funds.\nDiversify. This is the key to success in the stock market and in life. If you own only stocks, consider bonds, but talk to a financial professional (not your neighbor) before taking this step.\nBuy the big dips. This strategy still works. If you had bought the dip on July 19, you would have cleaned up on July 20. One day this strategy won’t work, but that day hasn’t come yet.\nSell covered-call options. This is still an excellent way to generate extra income. This strategy is also ideal for disposing of unwanted stocks, and getting paid for it.\n\nPlan for the next correction or bear market\nAfter a 13-year bull market, the clock is ticking for U.S. stocks. While the bulls scored another victory this time, one day the market won’t reverse direction and will begin a steep correction, or worse yet, a bear market. That’s when you will be glad that you have a plan and an investment script to follow on the worst days.\nKnow what you own, sell to the “sleep-well” point and diversify into a variety of financial products including cash and bonds. This way, when the market plunges again, you won’t make knee-jerk emotional decisions or suffer an anxiety attack.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":801581813,"gmtCreate":1627522996932,"gmtModify":1631889065884,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"耐心等待","listText":"耐心等待","text":"耐心等待","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801581813","repostId":"1127264445","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127264445","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627514621,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127264445?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 07:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127264445","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after th","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and Chair Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> said the central bank was still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约3月19日-标普500周三收盘变化不大，但脱离盘中低点，此前美联储表示美国经济复苏仍在正轨上，主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>表示央行距离考虑加息还有一段路要走。</blockquote></p><p> Keeping the market in check, shares of tech giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc fell 1.2% after it forecast slowing revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>控制市场，科技巨头的股票<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Inc预测收入增长放缓，股价下跌1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> In a news conference following the release of a new policy statement from the Fed, Powell also said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back from the economic support the U.S. central bank put in place in the spring of 2020 to battle the coronavirus pandemic’s economic shocks.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储发布新政策声明后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔还表示，在退出美联储提供的经济支持之前，美国就业市场仍有“一些地方需要覆盖”。2020年春季，以应对冠状病毒大流行的经济冲击。</blockquote></p><p> “It looks like probably the most positive thing for the market was that they are nowhere near increasing interest rates,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz &amp; Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于俄亥俄州托莱多的投资咨询公司Alan B.Lancz&amp;Associates Inc总裁艾伦·兰茨(Alan Lancz)表示：“看起来对市场来说最积极的事情可能是他们远未加息。”</blockquote></p><p> Right after the Fed statement, the S&amp;P 500 index reversed slight declines though it still ended a hair lower on the day.</p><p><blockquote>美联储声明发布后，标普500指数扭转了小幅跌势，但当天收盘仍小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> have been worried about how rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases might impact the central bank’s plan to potentially start withdrawing its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>一直担心通胀上升和COVID-19病例激增可能会影响央行可能开始撤回刺激措施的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank also said that higher inflation remained the result of “transitory factors.” The Fed kept its overnight benchmark interest rate near zero and left unchanged its bond-buying program.</p><p><blockquote>央行还表示，通胀上升仍然是“暂时性因素”的结果。美联储将隔夜基准利率维持在零附近，并维持债券购买计划不变。</blockquote></p><p> The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> ended higher and shares of Google parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc hit an all-time high as a surge in advertising spending helped it post record quarterly results. The stock ended up 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>谷歌母公司股价收高<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>由于广告支出激增帮助其公布了创纪录的季度业绩，Inc创下历史新高。该股收盘上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.59 points, or 0.36%, to 34,930.93, the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.82 point, or 0.02%, to 4,400.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 102.01 points, or 0.7%, to 14,762.58.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌127.59点，跌幅0.36%，至34,930.93点；标普500下跌0.82点，跌幅0.02%，至4,400.64点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨102.01点，跌幅0.7%，至14,762.58点。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement came at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明是在最近一次为期两天的政策会议结束时发表的。</blockquote></p><p> “They had a chance to signal they were going to become more hawkish and they chose not to take it. The most important thing is they are predictable and they are remaining predictable,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">Wellesley</a>, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>F.L.投资组合经理Ellen Hazen表示：“他们有机会发出信号，表明他们将变得更加鹰派，但他们选择不接受。最重要的是，他们是可预测的，而且仍然是可预测的。”普特南投资管理公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">韦尔斯利</a>，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> In other earnings news, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> Corp ended down 0.1% even as a boom in cloud services helped it beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>在其他财报消息中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>尽管云服务的繁荣帮助其收入和盈利超出了华尔街的预期，但该公司收盘下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.86 billion shares, compared with a similar average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为98.6亿股，而过去20个交易日的全交易日平均成交量相似。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.61-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.85比1；在纳斯达克，2.61比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 67 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下42个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得44个新高和67个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 07:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and Chair Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> said the central bank was still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约3月19日-标普500周三收盘变化不大，但脱离盘中低点，此前美联储表示美国经济复苏仍在正轨上，主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>表示央行距离考虑加息还有一段路要走。</blockquote></p><p> Keeping the market in check, shares of tech giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc fell 1.2% after it forecast slowing revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>控制市场，科技巨头的股票<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Inc预测收入增长放缓，股价下跌1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> In a news conference following the release of a new policy statement from the Fed, Powell also said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back from the economic support the U.S. central bank put in place in the spring of 2020 to battle the coronavirus pandemic’s economic shocks.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储发布新政策声明后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔还表示，在退出美联储提供的经济支持之前，美国就业市场仍有“一些地方需要覆盖”。2020年春季，以应对冠状病毒大流行的经济冲击。</blockquote></p><p> “It looks like probably the most positive thing for the market was that they are nowhere near increasing interest rates,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz &amp; Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于俄亥俄州托莱多的投资咨询公司Alan B.Lancz&amp;Associates Inc总裁艾伦·兰茨(Alan Lancz)表示：“看起来对市场来说最积极的事情可能是他们远未加息。”</blockquote></p><p> Right after the Fed statement, the S&amp;P 500 index reversed slight declines though it still ended a hair lower on the day.</p><p><blockquote>美联储声明发布后，标普500指数扭转了小幅跌势，但当天收盘仍小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> have been worried about how rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases might impact the central bank’s plan to potentially start withdrawing its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>一直担心通胀上升和COVID-19病例激增可能会影响央行可能开始撤回刺激措施的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank also said that higher inflation remained the result of “transitory factors.” The Fed kept its overnight benchmark interest rate near zero and left unchanged its bond-buying program.</p><p><blockquote>央行还表示，通胀上升仍然是“暂时性因素”的结果。美联储将隔夜基准利率维持在零附近，并维持债券购买计划不变。</blockquote></p><p> The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> ended higher and shares of Google parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc hit an all-time high as a surge in advertising spending helped it post record quarterly results. The stock ended up 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>谷歌母公司股价收高<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>由于广告支出激增帮助其公布了创纪录的季度业绩，Inc创下历史新高。该股收盘上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.59 points, or 0.36%, to 34,930.93, the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.82 point, or 0.02%, to 4,400.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 102.01 points, or 0.7%, to 14,762.58.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌127.59点，跌幅0.36%，至34,930.93点；标普500下跌0.82点，跌幅0.02%，至4,400.64点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨102.01点，跌幅0.7%，至14,762.58点。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement came at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明是在最近一次为期两天的政策会议结束时发表的。</blockquote></p><p> “They had a chance to signal they were going to become more hawkish and they chose not to take it. The most important thing is they are predictable and they are remaining predictable,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">Wellesley</a>, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>F.L.投资组合经理Ellen Hazen表示：“他们有机会发出信号，表明他们将变得更加鹰派，但他们选择不接受。最重要的是，他们是可预测的，而且仍然是可预测的。”普特南投资管理公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">韦尔斯利</a>，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> In other earnings news, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> Corp ended down 0.1% even as a boom in cloud services helped it beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>在其他财报消息中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>尽管云服务的繁荣帮助其收入和盈利超出了华尔街的预期，但该公司收盘下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.86 billion shares, compared with a similar average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为98.6亿股，而过去20个交易日的全交易日平均成交量相似。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.61-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.85比1；在纳斯达克，2.61比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 67 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下42个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得44个新高和67个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-ends-off-days-lows-powell-says-fed-still-a-ways-away-from-rate-hikes-idUSL1N2P435H\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-ends-off-days-lows-powell-says-fed-still-a-ways-away-from-rate-hikes-idUSL1N2P435H","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127264445","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank was still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.\nKeeping the market in check, shares of tech giant Apple Inc fell 1.2% after it forecast slowing revenue growth.\nIn a news conference following the release of a new policy statement from the Fed, Powell also said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back from the economic support the U.S. central bank put in place in the spring of 2020 to battle the coronavirus pandemic’s economic shocks.\n“It looks like probably the most positive thing for the market was that they are nowhere near increasing interest rates,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz & Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.\nRight after the Fed statement, the S&P 500 index reversed slight declines though it still ended a hair lower on the day.\nInvestors have been worried about how rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases might impact the central bank’s plan to potentially start withdrawing its stimulus.\nThe central bank also said that higher inflation remained the result of “transitory factors.” The Fed kept its overnight benchmark interest rate near zero and left unchanged its bond-buying program.\nThe Nasdaq ended higher and shares of Google parent Alphabet Inc hit an all-time high as a surge in advertising spending helped it post record quarterly results. The stock ended up 3.2%.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.59 points, or 0.36%, to 34,930.93, the S&P 500 lost 0.82 point, or 0.02%, to 4,400.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 102.01 points, or 0.7%, to 14,762.58.\nThe Fed’s statement came at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting.\n“They had a chance to signal they were going to become more hawkish and they chose not to take it. The most important thing is they are predictable and they are remaining predictable,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management in Wellesley, Massachusetts.\nIn other earnings news, Microsoft Corp ended down 0.1% even as a boom in cloud services helped it beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 9.86 billion shares, compared with a similar average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.61-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 67 new lows.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SDS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":809925148,"gmtCreate":1627344967484,"gmtModify":1631889065906,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"很多人是苹果的粉丝， 我也喜欢用ipad. 所以对它有信心。&nbsp;","listText":"很多人是苹果的粉丝， 我也喜欢用ipad. 所以对它有信心。&nbsp;","text":"很多人是苹果的粉丝， 我也喜欢用ipad. 所以对它有信心。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809925148","repostId":"1100647798","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100647798","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627313442,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100647798?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100647798","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"After the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple  for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.I'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as we","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares go into report near all-time high.</li>  <li>Estimates surge after two massive beats.</li>  <li>Timing of product launches will shift revenue picture.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股价接近历史新高。</li><li>两次大幅上涨后，预估值飙升。</li><li>产品发布的时间将改变收入状况。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple (AAPL) for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.</p><p><blockquote>周二盘后，我们将收到科技巨头苹果(AAPL)截至6月底的第三财季业绩。由于该公司前两个季度的收益报告超出了华尔街的预期，预期持续上升也就不足为奇了。随着最近几周股价上涨至历史新高，可能需要另一份强劲的报告来维持局面。</blockquote></p><p> For the first half of fiscal 2021, Apple's revenues have beaten street estimates by an average of $10.25 billion per quarter. The fiscal Q3&nbsp;current average estimate&nbsp;is $73.44 billion, which would represent growth of more than 23% from the year-ago period. It's quite impressive that the current average is up more than $13 billion over the past year. On the bottom line, the street is looking for $1.01, growth of more than 56%. In the table below, you can see some Q3 key financial items for the past two years, with the current estimates for this year's period in yellow. Dollar values are millions except per share amounts.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年上半年，苹果的收入平均每季度超出华尔街预期102.5亿美元。第三财季目前的平均预期为734.4亿美元，比去年同期增长23%以上。令人印象深刻的是，目前的平均水平在过去一年中增长了超过130亿美元。从底线来看，华尔街的目标是1.01美元，增长超过56%。在下表中，您可以看到过去两年第三季度的一些关键财务项目，今年同期的当前估计为黄色。除每股金额外，美元价值为数百万。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df8630a7ef0be70113aeac0d50265a57\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(*Numbers estimated based on last year's split. Actual numbers to come from the company. Source: Fiscal Q3 2020 report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（*根据去年的拆分估算的数字。实际数字来自公司。资料来源：2020财年第三季度报告）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple is comingoff arguably&nbsp;its best quarter ever. Revenues for the iPhone were up more than 65.5% over the prior-year period, with the Mac up more than 70% and iPad up nearly 79%. Fiscal Q2 overall revenue growth was nearly 54%, so this time around we're looking for about 40% of that figure. Don't forget, on the&nbsp;Q2 conference call, management talked about a $3 billion to $4 billion revenue hit in the June period from supply constraints.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可以说是有史以来最好的季度。iPhone的收入同比增长超过65.5%，Mac增长超过70%，iPad增长近79%。第二财季整体收入增长近54%，因此这次我们预计这一数字的40%左右。别忘了，在第二季度电话会议上，管理层谈到6月份期间供应限制导致收入损失30亿至40亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I'm most curious to see how the iPhone does this time around, as it appears that the 5G supercycle seems to be going pretty well. This year, however, most expectations are that the smartphone will return to its usual September launch period, meaning new phone revenues would be generated in fiscal Q4 again. Last year's coronavirus delayed launch meant sales didn't start until well into October and even November for some models, completely changing the sales trajectory for Apple's current fiscal year. This year's launch isn't expected to see a major upgrade to the phone line itself, so demand trends will probably be more dependent on how many consumers are upgrading to 5G rather than switching to iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>我最好奇的是这一次iPhone的表现如何，因为5G超级周期似乎进展顺利。然而，今年，大多数人预计智能手机将回到通常的9月发布期，这意味着新手机收入将在第四财季再次产生。去年的冠状病毒推迟了上市，这意味着某些车型直到10月甚至11月才开始销售，这完全改变了苹果本财年的销售轨迹。今年的推出预计不会对电话线本身进行重大升级，因此需求趋势可能更多地取决于有多少消费者升级到5G，而不是转向iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> I'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as well as soaring commodity prices. I don't think we will see a repeat of the 575 basis point increase in product gross margins that Q2 saw this time around, but the iPhone 12 line should still provide a nice year-over-year boost. In the long run, investors will look at growing services margins helping the gross margin percentage overall, but don't forget that the services side of the business has a lot of its expenses on the operating line.</p><p><blockquote>我相信分析师也将关注苹果如何应对芯片短缺和大宗商品价格飙升的问题。我认为我们不会看到第二季度产品毛利率增长575个基点的重演，但iPhone 12系列仍然应该会带来不错的同比增长。从长远来看，投资者将关注不断增长的服务利润率，以帮助提高整体毛利率，但不要忘记，业务的服务方面在运营方面有大量费用。</blockquote></p><p> For the stock to stay elevated, management is going to need to show that work from home and stimulus money tailwinds are still ongoing. As I discussed in&nbsp;a previous article, estimates call for Apple to see quarterly revenues decline for its March 2022 fiscal period, as the company laps very high previous year bars. While that might bring out some of the bears again, the long-term trajectory still seems positive. Current estimates call for $355 billion in total revenue during this fiscal year with Apple adding another $50 billion to that total over the next three years.</p><p><blockquote>为了使股价保持高位，管理层需要证明在家工作和刺激资金的顺风仍在持续。正如我在上一篇文章中讨论的那样，看涨期权预计苹果2022年3月财年的季度收入将下降，因为该公司去年的收入水平非常高。虽然这可能会再次引发一些空头，但长期轨迹似乎仍然是积极的。目前估计看涨期权本财年的总收入为3550亿美元，苹果将在未来三年内再增加500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I hope that management took advantage of the weakness in Apple shares during the quarter for its buyback. Even though the company is spending $20 billion or so every three months, that money doesn't go as far as $145 as it does at $125, obviously. Less shares repurchased means less of an earnings per share benefit, and lower long-term dividend raises. The good news is that Apple is on its way towards $100 billion a year in free cash flow, so investors don't need to worry about capital returns slowing down anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>我希望管理层利用本季度苹果股价疲软的机会进行回购。尽管该公司每三个月花费200亿美元左右，但这笔钱显然不会像125美元那样达到145美元。回购的股票越少意味着每股收益收益越少，长期股息提高也越低。好消息是，苹果的自由现金流即将达到每年1000亿美元，因此投资者无需担心资本回报会很快放缓。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The major issue for Apple right now is valuation. Shares finished last week trading at 33.4 times their trailing twelve-month earnings. That's basically double the mid-teens numbers from a couple of years ago, helped a lot by easy-money policies around the globe. My current price target of $162 is based on a 30X multiple of $5.40 in EPS for the September 2022 period. That number, however, assumes that the Fed and other central banks will remain fairly accommodative through most of next year. If we start to get a lot of tapering and or rate hikes earlier than expected, the overall market is likely to feel some pain, and I don't see how Apple would be immune from that.</p><p><blockquote>苹果目前的主要问题是估值。上周股价是过去12个月市盈率的33.4倍。这基本上是几年前青少年人数的两倍，这在很大程度上得益于全球宽松货币政策。我目前162美元的目标价是基于2022年9月期间每股收益5.40美元的30倍。然而，这个数字是假设美联储和其他央行在明年大部分时间里将保持相当宽松的政策。如果我们比预期更早地开始大量缩减和/或加息，整个市场可能会感到一些痛苦，我看不出苹果会如何免受此影响。</blockquote></p><p> A strong report from Apple could easily help shares to rise to a new all-time high. But just to play devil's advocate for a minute, what if there is a disappointment or a \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" reaction? Well, shares are quite a bit above their key moving averages as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in orange). As long as Apple can hold the shorter-term trend line, that rising technical level should be one of support. The stock has been able to hold the long-term trend line for quite a while, so I don't see any more than about 14% downside in the near term unless we get a major market pullback.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的强劲报告很容易帮助股价升至历史新高。但只是为了唱反调一分钟，如果出现失望或“买入谣言，卖出新闻”的反应怎么办？嗯，股价远高于其关键移动平均线，如下图所示（紫色为50日，橙色为200日）。只要苹果能够守住短期趋势线，上涨的技术水平应该是支撑之一。该股已经能够在相当长一段时间内保持长期趋势线，因此我认为短期内的下跌幅度不会超过14%左右，除非市场出现重大回调。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc37ee144edb22fd36fcd15cf5fc3470\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Yahoo! Finance)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：雅虎财经）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the end, expectations for Apple are very high as earnings approach this week. Two massive quarterly beats have sent estimates through the roof, and the stock has recently run to a new all-time high. The market will be looking for signs that the iPhone supercycle has continued while work from home tailwinds have not subsided just yet. Investors hoping that this rally can continue will need to see a strong report, with management hopefully painting a bright sales picture for upcoming fall product launches.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着本周财报的临近，人们对苹果的期望非常高。两个巨大的季度业绩超出了预期，该股最近创下了历史新高。市场将寻找iPhone超级周期仍在继续的迹象，而在家工作的顺风尚未消退。希望这种涨势能够持续下去的投资者需要看到一份强劲的报告，管理层希望为即将到来的秋季产品发布描绘一幅光明的销售图景。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 23:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares go into report near all-time high.</li>  <li>Estimates surge after two massive beats.</li>  <li>Timing of product launches will shift revenue picture.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股价接近历史新高。</li><li>两次大幅上涨后，预估值飙升。</li><li>产品发布的时间将改变收入状况。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple (AAPL) for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.</p><p><blockquote>周二盘后，我们将收到科技巨头苹果(AAPL)截至6月底的第三财季业绩。由于该公司前两个季度的收益报告超出了华尔街的预期，预期持续上升也就不足为奇了。随着最近几周股价上涨至历史新高，可能需要另一份强劲的报告来维持局面。</blockquote></p><p> For the first half of fiscal 2021, Apple's revenues have beaten street estimates by an average of $10.25 billion per quarter. The fiscal Q3&nbsp;current average estimate&nbsp;is $73.44 billion, which would represent growth of more than 23% from the year-ago period. It's quite impressive that the current average is up more than $13 billion over the past year. On the bottom line, the street is looking for $1.01, growth of more than 56%. In the table below, you can see some Q3 key financial items for the past two years, with the current estimates for this year's period in yellow. Dollar values are millions except per share amounts.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年上半年，苹果的收入平均每季度超出华尔街预期102.5亿美元。第三财季目前的平均预期为734.4亿美元，比去年同期增长23%以上。令人印象深刻的是，目前的平均水平在过去一年中增长了超过130亿美元。从底线来看，华尔街的目标是1.01美元，增长超过56%。在下表中，您可以看到过去两年第三季度的一些关键财务项目，今年同期的当前估计为黄色。除每股金额外，美元价值为数百万。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df8630a7ef0be70113aeac0d50265a57\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(*Numbers estimated based on last year's split. Actual numbers to come from the company. Source: Fiscal Q3 2020 report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（*根据去年的拆分估算的数字。实际数字来自公司。资料来源：2020财年第三季度报告）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple is comingoff arguably&nbsp;its best quarter ever. Revenues for the iPhone were up more than 65.5% over the prior-year period, with the Mac up more than 70% and iPad up nearly 79%. Fiscal Q2 overall revenue growth was nearly 54%, so this time around we're looking for about 40% of that figure. Don't forget, on the&nbsp;Q2 conference call, management talked about a $3 billion to $4 billion revenue hit in the June period from supply constraints.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可以说是有史以来最好的季度。iPhone的收入同比增长超过65.5%，Mac增长超过70%，iPad增长近79%。第二财季整体收入增长近54%，因此这次我们预计这一数字的40%左右。别忘了，在第二季度电话会议上，管理层谈到6月份期间供应限制导致收入损失30亿至40亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I'm most curious to see how the iPhone does this time around, as it appears that the 5G supercycle seems to be going pretty well. This year, however, most expectations are that the smartphone will return to its usual September launch period, meaning new phone revenues would be generated in fiscal Q4 again. Last year's coronavirus delayed launch meant sales didn't start until well into October and even November for some models, completely changing the sales trajectory for Apple's current fiscal year. This year's launch isn't expected to see a major upgrade to the phone line itself, so demand trends will probably be more dependent on how many consumers are upgrading to 5G rather than switching to iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>我最好奇的是这一次iPhone的表现如何，因为5G超级周期似乎进展顺利。然而，今年，大多数人预计智能手机将回到通常的9月发布期，这意味着新手机收入将在第四财季再次产生。去年的冠状病毒推迟了上市，这意味着某些车型直到10月甚至11月才开始销售，这完全改变了苹果本财年的销售轨迹。今年的推出预计不会对电话线本身进行重大升级，因此需求趋势可能更多地取决于有多少消费者升级到5G，而不是转向iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> I'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as well as soaring commodity prices. I don't think we will see a repeat of the 575 basis point increase in product gross margins that Q2 saw this time around, but the iPhone 12 line should still provide a nice year-over-year boost. In the long run, investors will look at growing services margins helping the gross margin percentage overall, but don't forget that the services side of the business has a lot of its expenses on the operating line.</p><p><blockquote>我相信分析师也将关注苹果如何应对芯片短缺和大宗商品价格飙升的问题。我认为我们不会看到第二季度产品毛利率增长575个基点的重演，但iPhone 12系列仍然应该会带来不错的同比增长。从长远来看，投资者将关注不断增长的服务利润率，以帮助提高整体毛利率，但不要忘记，业务的服务方面在运营方面有大量费用。</blockquote></p><p> For the stock to stay elevated, management is going to need to show that work from home and stimulus money tailwinds are still ongoing. As I discussed in&nbsp;a previous article, estimates call for Apple to see quarterly revenues decline for its March 2022 fiscal period, as the company laps very high previous year bars. While that might bring out some of the bears again, the long-term trajectory still seems positive. Current estimates call for $355 billion in total revenue during this fiscal year with Apple adding another $50 billion to that total over the next three years.</p><p><blockquote>为了使股价保持高位，管理层需要证明在家工作和刺激资金的顺风仍在持续。正如我在上一篇文章中讨论的那样，看涨期权预计苹果2022年3月财年的季度收入将下降，因为该公司去年的收入水平非常高。虽然这可能会再次引发一些空头，但长期轨迹似乎仍然是积极的。目前估计看涨期权本财年的总收入为3550亿美元，苹果将在未来三年内再增加500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I hope that management took advantage of the weakness in Apple shares during the quarter for its buyback. Even though the company is spending $20 billion or so every three months, that money doesn't go as far as $145 as it does at $125, obviously. Less shares repurchased means less of an earnings per share benefit, and lower long-term dividend raises. The good news is that Apple is on its way towards $100 billion a year in free cash flow, so investors don't need to worry about capital returns slowing down anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>我希望管理层利用本季度苹果股价疲软的机会进行回购。尽管该公司每三个月花费200亿美元左右，但这笔钱显然不会像125美元那样达到145美元。回购的股票越少意味着每股收益收益越少，长期股息提高也越低。好消息是，苹果的自由现金流即将达到每年1000亿美元，因此投资者无需担心资本回报会很快放缓。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The major issue for Apple right now is valuation. Shares finished last week trading at 33.4 times their trailing twelve-month earnings. That's basically double the mid-teens numbers from a couple of years ago, helped a lot by easy-money policies around the globe. My current price target of $162 is based on a 30X multiple of $5.40 in EPS for the September 2022 period. That number, however, assumes that the Fed and other central banks will remain fairly accommodative through most of next year. If we start to get a lot of tapering and or rate hikes earlier than expected, the overall market is likely to feel some pain, and I don't see how Apple would be immune from that.</p><p><blockquote>苹果目前的主要问题是估值。上周股价是过去12个月市盈率的33.4倍。这基本上是几年前青少年人数的两倍，这在很大程度上得益于全球宽松货币政策。我目前162美元的目标价是基于2022年9月期间每股收益5.40美元的30倍。然而，这个数字是假设美联储和其他央行在明年大部分时间里将保持相当宽松的政策。如果我们比预期更早地开始大量缩减和/或加息，整个市场可能会感到一些痛苦，我看不出苹果会如何免受此影响。</blockquote></p><p> A strong report from Apple could easily help shares to rise to a new all-time high. But just to play devil's advocate for a minute, what if there is a disappointment or a \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" reaction? Well, shares are quite a bit above their key moving averages as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in orange). As long as Apple can hold the shorter-term trend line, that rising technical level should be one of support. The stock has been able to hold the long-term trend line for quite a while, so I don't see any more than about 14% downside in the near term unless we get a major market pullback.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的强劲报告很容易帮助股价升至历史新高。但只是为了唱反调一分钟，如果出现失望或“买入谣言，卖出新闻”的反应怎么办？嗯，股价远高于其关键移动平均线，如下图所示（紫色为50日，橙色为200日）。只要苹果能够守住短期趋势线，上涨的技术水平应该是支撑之一。该股已经能够在相当长一段时间内保持长期趋势线，因此我认为短期内的下跌幅度不会超过14%左右，除非市场出现重大回调。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc37ee144edb22fd36fcd15cf5fc3470\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Yahoo! Finance)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：雅虎财经）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the end, expectations for Apple are very high as earnings approach this week. Two massive quarterly beats have sent estimates through the roof, and the stock has recently run to a new all-time high. The market will be looking for signs that the iPhone supercycle has continued while work from home tailwinds have not subsided just yet. Investors hoping that this rally can continue will need to see a strong report, with management hopefully painting a bright sales picture for upcoming fall product launches.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着本周财报的临近，人们对苹果的期望非常高。两个巨大的季度业绩超出了预期，该股最近创下了历史新高。市场将寻找iPhone超级周期仍在继续的迹象，而在家工作的顺风尚未消退。希望这种涨势能够持续下去的投资者需要看到一份强劲的报告，管理层希望为即将到来的秋季产品发布描绘一幅光明的销售图景。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441375-apple-earnings-face-high-expectations\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441375-apple-earnings-face-high-expectations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100647798","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares go into report near all-time high.\nEstimates surge after two massive beats.\nTiming of product launches will shift revenue picture.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nAfter the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple (AAPL) for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.\nFor the first half of fiscal 2021, Apple's revenues have beaten street estimates by an average of $10.25 billion per quarter. The fiscal Q3 current average estimate is $73.44 billion, which would represent growth of more than 23% from the year-ago period. It's quite impressive that the current average is up more than $13 billion over the past year. On the bottom line, the street is looking for $1.01, growth of more than 56%. In the table below, you can see some Q3 key financial items for the past two years, with the current estimates for this year's period in yellow. Dollar values are millions except per share amounts.\n(*Numbers estimated based on last year's split. Actual numbers to come from the company. Source: Fiscal Q3 2020 report)\nApple is comingoff arguably its best quarter ever. Revenues for the iPhone were up more than 65.5% over the prior-year period, with the Mac up more than 70% and iPad up nearly 79%. Fiscal Q2 overall revenue growth was nearly 54%, so this time around we're looking for about 40% of that figure. Don't forget, on the Q2 conference call, management talked about a $3 billion to $4 billion revenue hit in the June period from supply constraints.\nI'm most curious to see how the iPhone does this time around, as it appears that the 5G supercycle seems to be going pretty well. This year, however, most expectations are that the smartphone will return to its usual September launch period, meaning new phone revenues would be generated in fiscal Q4 again. Last year's coronavirus delayed launch meant sales didn't start until well into October and even November for some models, completely changing the sales trajectory for Apple's current fiscal year. This year's launch isn't expected to see a major upgrade to the phone line itself, so demand trends will probably be more dependent on how many consumers are upgrading to 5G rather than switching to iPhones.\nI'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as well as soaring commodity prices. I don't think we will see a repeat of the 575 basis point increase in product gross margins that Q2 saw this time around, but the iPhone 12 line should still provide a nice year-over-year boost. In the long run, investors will look at growing services margins helping the gross margin percentage overall, but don't forget that the services side of the business has a lot of its expenses on the operating line.\nFor the stock to stay elevated, management is going to need to show that work from home and stimulus money tailwinds are still ongoing. As I discussed in a previous article, estimates call for Apple to see quarterly revenues decline for its March 2022 fiscal period, as the company laps very high previous year bars. While that might bring out some of the bears again, the long-term trajectory still seems positive. Current estimates call for $355 billion in total revenue during this fiscal year with Apple adding another $50 billion to that total over the next three years.\nI hope that management took advantage of the weakness in Apple shares during the quarter for its buyback. Even though the company is spending $20 billion or so every three months, that money doesn't go as far as $145 as it does at $125, obviously. Less shares repurchased means less of an earnings per share benefit, and lower long-term dividend raises. The good news is that Apple is on its way towards $100 billion a year in free cash flow, so investors don't need to worry about capital returns slowing down anytime soon.\nThe major issue for Apple right now is valuation. Shares finished last week trading at 33.4 times their trailing twelve-month earnings. That's basically double the mid-teens numbers from a couple of years ago, helped a lot by easy-money policies around the globe. My current price target of $162 is based on a 30X multiple of $5.40 in EPS for the September 2022 period. That number, however, assumes that the Fed and other central banks will remain fairly accommodative through most of next year. If we start to get a lot of tapering and or rate hikes earlier than expected, the overall market is likely to feel some pain, and I don't see how Apple would be immune from that.\nA strong report from Apple could easily help shares to rise to a new all-time high. But just to play devil's advocate for a minute, what if there is a disappointment or a \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" reaction? Well, shares are quite a bit above their key moving averages as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in orange). As long as Apple can hold the shorter-term trend line, that rising technical level should be one of support. The stock has been able to hold the long-term trend line for quite a while, so I don't see any more than about 14% downside in the near term unless we get a major market pullback.\n(Source: Yahoo! Finance)\nIn the end, expectations for Apple are very high as earnings approach this week. Two massive quarterly beats have sent estimates through the roof, and the stock has recently run to a new all-time high. The market will be looking for signs that the iPhone supercycle has continued while work from home tailwinds have not subsided just yet. Investors hoping that this rally can continue will need to see a strong report, with management hopefully painting a bright sales picture for upcoming fall product launches.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":147985817,"gmtCreate":1626327647439,"gmtModify":1631889065914,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"谢谢提供信息，让我们分享。我买股票因为除了可以赚钱，还希望有股息分。耐心等待","listText":"谢谢提供信息，让我们分享。我买股票因为除了可以赚钱，还希望有股息分。耐心等待","text":"谢谢提供信息，让我们分享。我买股票因为除了可以赚钱，还希望有股息分。耐心等待","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147985817","repostId":"2151751740","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":144400064,"gmtCreate":1626308402658,"gmtModify":1631889065921,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"节节攀升，让人又惊又喜。","listText":"节节攀升，让人又惊又喜。","text":"节节攀升，让人又惊又喜。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144400064","repostId":"1109835939","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2739,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":144635329,"gmtCreate":1626278578761,"gmtModify":1631889065921,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"谢谢分享","listText":"谢谢分享","text":"谢谢分享","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144635329","repostId":"1109132109","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":145432430,"gmtCreate":1626236128820,"gmtModify":1631889065927,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有很多事是普通老百姓无法理解的。","listText":"有很多事是普通老百姓无法理解的。","text":"有很多事是普通老百姓无法理解的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145432430","repostId":"2151550481","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2186,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":145347339,"gmtCreate":1626192132921,"gmtModify":1631889065935,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最期待IPO了， 幸运的话，会让你赚一笔💰","listText":"最期待IPO了， 幸运的话，会让你赚一笔💰","text":"最期待IPO了， 幸运的话，会让你赚一笔💰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145347339","repostId":"2151156669","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":148272028,"gmtCreate":1625983466764,"gmtModify":1631889065935,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"事事难料，见好就收。","listText":"事事难料，见好就收。","text":"事事难料，见好就收。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148272028","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185154176?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济蓬勃发展，盈利上升，美联储给予前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经大幅上涨17%，确实可能会出现回调。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于这六个原因，我们仍处于股市三到五年牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.有巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。总而言之，巨大的被压抑的私营部门需求将有助于推动美国今年的GDP增长达到8%，并在此后几年达到3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold Group首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释家庭需求的大幅上升。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未用完的储蓄，因为他们为疫情做好了准备。个人储蓄率接近GDP的16%，而战后的平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表显著改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。消费者将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量，因为就业和经济保持强劲，他们的信心增强。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会提高，这必然会促进经济增长。劳动参与率还有提高的空间，在我们达到可能限制经济增长的充分就业之前，留下了闲置的就业能力。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看企业被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听说的所有短缺的东西吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的疫情，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清理。但现在，企业不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司也削减了产能，并再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近23%。这创造了持续的增长，它告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>：我们今年将看到7%-8%的GDP增长，明年将达到4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平的增长，支持股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得如此之快，分析师们跟不上。分析师预计标普500今年的每股收益为190美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激通常需要六到八个月才能生效，最近的很多刺激都发生在这个窗口内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计，2021年标普500的盈利将更接近220美元，而不是普遍预期的190美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“分析师仍然低估了利润的改善程度以及将会改善多少。”“我们从政策官员那里得到了戏剧性的过度反应。他们解决了崩溃的问题，但在基本面上创造了巨大的改善。这在利润复苏方面仍在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.城里有一个新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通胀。在此过程中，央行扼杀了经济增长。这就是过去20年是战后经济增长最慢的原因之一。然而现在，美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的衡量标准来衡量这一点。以GDP增长减去10年期国债收益率MUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在1980年至2010年的大部分时间里都为负值，当时美联储保持增长降温以遏制通胀。但现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将10年期国债收益率保持在远低于GDP增长的水平，从而使经济过热。这就是1950-1965年的情况，一些分析家将其看涨期权为“资本主义的黄金时代”，因为增长的下滑路径。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀不会杀死公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通胀短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。这是一个综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。企业资本支出的繁荣将继续提高企业的生产率。这使他们能够避免将上升的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地制造商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹的阶段，通常会出现以下动态。股市连续几个月横盘整理，主要是因为对通胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，压低了股票估值。在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中，这种动态大约在这一点上发挥了作用。简而言之，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升，而股市则标志着时间的到来，甚至是回调。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将降低股票估值，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在年底达到220美元，并且该指数因回调而达到4,000至4,100点，那么股票的市盈率将达到18-19倍，低于1990年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA+1.30%和罗素2000小盘股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们重新进入横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一名逆向投资者，我将过度情绪视为是时候筹集一些现金的迹象。我们还没有看到这一点。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说从4点开始。另一方面，共同基金现金最近为4.6万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来持续的经济复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性股票。</b>继续投资对经济敏感的企业，并在回调时增持这些企业。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果您想要收益，请选择支付股息但具有资本增值潜力的股票，而不是销售消费品等稳定增长的公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信Brush Up on Stocks（链接在下面的简介中）中，我最近建议或重申了零售业的家得宝、市场和投资银行名称B.Riley Financial以及消费者金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长率往往更高。小心中国。它的人口正在老龄化。劳动力增长有限可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的美中紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁导致全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济蓬勃发展，盈利上升，美联储给予前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经大幅上涨17%，确实可能会出现回调。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于这六个原因，我们仍处于股市三到五年牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.有巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。总而言之，巨大的被压抑的私营部门需求将有助于推动美国今年的GDP增长达到8%，并在此后几年达到3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold Group首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释家庭需求的大幅上升。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未用完的储蓄，因为他们为疫情做好了准备。个人储蓄率接近GDP的16%，而战后的平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表显著改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。消费者将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量，因为就业和经济保持强劲，他们的信心增强。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会提高，这必然会促进经济增长。劳动参与率还有提高的空间，在我们达到可能限制经济增长的充分就业之前，留下了闲置的就业能力。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看企业被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听说的所有短缺的东西吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的疫情，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清理。但现在，企业不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司也削减了产能，并再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近23%。这创造了持续的增长，它告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>：我们今年将看到7%-8%的GDP增长，明年将达到4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平的增长，支持股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得如此之快，分析师们跟不上。分析师预计标普500今年的每股收益为190美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激通常需要六到八个月才能生效，最近的很多刺激都发生在这个窗口内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计，2021年标普500的盈利将更接近220美元，而不是普遍预期的190美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“分析师仍然低估了利润的改善程度以及将会改善多少。”“我们从政策官员那里得到了戏剧性的过度反应。他们解决了崩溃的问题，但在基本面上创造了巨大的改善。这在利润复苏方面仍在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.城里有一个新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通胀。在此过程中，央行扼杀了经济增长。这就是过去20年是战后经济增长最慢的原因之一。然而现在，美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的衡量标准来衡量这一点。以GDP增长减去10年期国债收益率MUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在1980年至2010年的大部分时间里都为负值，当时美联储保持增长降温以遏制通胀。但现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将10年期国债收益率保持在远低于GDP增长的水平，从而使经济过热。这就是1950-1965年的情况，一些分析家将其看涨期权为“资本主义的黄金时代”，因为增长的下滑路径。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀不会杀死公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通胀短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。这是一个综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。企业资本支出的繁荣将继续提高企业的生产率。这使他们能够避免将上升的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地制造商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹的阶段，通常会出现以下动态。股市连续几个月横盘整理，主要是因为对通胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，压低了股票估值。在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中，这种动态大约在这一点上发挥了作用。简而言之，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升，而股市则标志着时间的到来，甚至是回调。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将降低股票估值，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在年底达到220美元，并且该指数因回调而达到4,000至4,100点，那么股票的市盈率将达到18-19倍，低于1990年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA+1.30%和罗素2000小盘股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们重新进入横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一名逆向投资者，我将过度情绪视为是时候筹集一些现金的迹象。我们还没有看到这一点。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说从4点开始。另一方面，共同基金现金最近为4.6万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来持续的经济复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性股票。</b>继续投资对经济敏感的企业，并在回调时增持这些企业。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果您想要收益，请选择支付股息但具有资本增值潜力的股票，而不是销售消费品等稳定增长的公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信Brush Up on Stocks（链接在下面的简介中）中，我最近建议或重申了零售业的家得宝、市场和投资银行名称B.Riley Financial以及消费者金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长率往往更高。小心中国。它的人口正在老龄化。劳动力增长有限可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的美中紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁导致全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":141049345,"gmtCreate":1625827704187,"gmtModify":1633936943960,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Thank you for informing","listText":"Thank you for informing","text":"Thank you for informing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141049345","repostId":"2150037500","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141056912,"gmtCreate":1625827141136,"gmtModify":1633936946905,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141056912","repostId":"1181179663","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181179663","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625822664,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181179663?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 17:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Oil prices firm as U.S. inventories decline<blockquote>美国库存下降油价坚挺</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181179663","media":"Reuters","summary":"LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second day on Friday as data showed a draw in U.S. inventor","content":"<p>LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second day on Friday as data showed a draw in U.S. inventories, but were heading for a weekly loss amid uncertainty over global supplies after an OPEC+ impasse.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦（路透社）-由于数据显示美国库存减少，油价周五连续第二天上涨，但由于欧佩克+僵局后全球供应的不确定性，油价将出现每周下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Brent crude oil futures were up 60 cents, or 0.8%, at $74.72 a barrel by 0845 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 69 cents, or 1%, at $73.63.</p><p><blockquote>截至格林威治标准时间0845，布伦特原油期货上涨60美分，或0.8%，至每桶74.72美元。美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货上涨69美分，涨幅1%，报73.63美元。</blockquote></p><p> Prices on both sides of the Atlantic were on track for a weekly loss of nearly 2%, dragged down by the collapse of output talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+.</p><p><blockquote>受石油输出国组织（OPEC）与包括俄罗斯在内的盟友（统称为OPEC+）之间的产量谈判破裂拖累，大西洋两岸的价格有望每周下跌近2%。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell and gasoline demand reached its highest since 2019, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, signalling increasing strength in the economy.</p><p><blockquote>美国能源情报署周四表示，美国原油和汽油库存下降，汽油需求达到2019年以来的最高水平，表明经济实力增强。</blockquote></p><p> “A bullish EIA stock report helped the oil market rebound into the black,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.</p><p><blockquote>石油经纪商PVM的Stephen Brennock表示：“看涨的EIA股票报告帮助石油市场反弹盈利。”</blockquote></p><p> “Clearly, U.S. oil markets are tight. However ... the only way to prevent further losses is for the threat of an OPEC+ price war to be contained,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“显然，美国石油市场紧张。然而……防止进一步损失的唯一方法是遏制OPEC+价格战的威胁，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Gains in oil prices were capped by worries that members of the OPEC+ group could be tempted to abandon output limits that they have followed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with talks breaking down because of an impasse between major producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心OPEC+集团成员国可能会试图放弃他们在COVID-19大流行期间遵循的产量限制，主要产油国沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国之间的僵局导致谈判破裂，油价涨幅受到限制。</blockquote></p><p> The two Gulf OPEC allies are at odds over a proposed deal that would have brought more oil to the market.</p><p><blockquote>这两个海湾石油输出国组织盟友在一项将向市场带来更多石油的拟议协议上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> Russia was trying to mediate in an effort to strike a deal to raise output, OPEC+ sources said on Wednesday. The United States had high level conversations with officials in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the White House said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>OPEC+消息人士周三表示，俄罗斯正试图进行调解，以达成增产协议。白宫周二表示，美国与沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的官员进行了高层对话。</blockquote></p><p> The global spread of the Delta coronavirus variant and worries it could stall a worldwide economic recovery also weighed on oil prices.</p><p><blockquote>德尔塔新冠病毒变异毒株的全球蔓延以及对其可能阻碍全球经济复苏的担忧也打压了油价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil prices firm as U.S. inventories decline<blockquote>美国库存下降油价坚挺</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil prices firm as U.S. inventories decline<blockquote>美国库存下降油价坚挺</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-09 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second day on Friday as data showed a draw in U.S. inventories, but were heading for a weekly loss amid uncertainty over global supplies after an OPEC+ impasse.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦（路透社）-由于数据显示美国库存减少，油价周五连续第二天上涨，但由于欧佩克+僵局后全球供应的不确定性，油价将出现每周下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Brent crude oil futures were up 60 cents, or 0.8%, at $74.72 a barrel by 0845 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 69 cents, or 1%, at $73.63.</p><p><blockquote>截至格林威治标准时间0845，布伦特原油期货上涨60美分，或0.8%，至每桶74.72美元。美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货上涨69美分，涨幅1%，报73.63美元。</blockquote></p><p> Prices on both sides of the Atlantic were on track for a weekly loss of nearly 2%, dragged down by the collapse of output talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+.</p><p><blockquote>受石油输出国组织（OPEC）与包括俄罗斯在内的盟友（统称为OPEC+）之间的产量谈判破裂拖累，大西洋两岸的价格有望每周下跌近2%。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell and gasoline demand reached its highest since 2019, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, signalling increasing strength in the economy.</p><p><blockquote>美国能源情报署周四表示，美国原油和汽油库存下降，汽油需求达到2019年以来的最高水平，表明经济实力增强。</blockquote></p><p> “A bullish EIA stock report helped the oil market rebound into the black,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.</p><p><blockquote>石油经纪商PVM的Stephen Brennock表示：“看涨的EIA股票报告帮助石油市场反弹盈利。”</blockquote></p><p> “Clearly, U.S. oil markets are tight. However ... the only way to prevent further losses is for the threat of an OPEC+ price war to be contained,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“显然，美国石油市场紧张。然而……防止进一步损失的唯一方法是遏制OPEC+价格战的威胁，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Gains in oil prices were capped by worries that members of the OPEC+ group could be tempted to abandon output limits that they have followed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with talks breaking down because of an impasse between major producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心OPEC+集团成员国可能会试图放弃他们在COVID-19大流行期间遵循的产量限制，主要产油国沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国之间的僵局导致谈判破裂，油价涨幅受到限制。</blockquote></p><p> The two Gulf OPEC allies are at odds over a proposed deal that would have brought more oil to the market.</p><p><blockquote>这两个海湾石油输出国组织盟友在一项将向市场带来更多石油的拟议协议上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> Russia was trying to mediate in an effort to strike a deal to raise output, OPEC+ sources said on Wednesday. The United States had high level conversations with officials in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the White House said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>OPEC+消息人士周三表示，俄罗斯正试图进行调解，以达成增产协议。白宫周二表示，美国与沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的官员进行了高层对话。</blockquote></p><p> The global spread of the Delta coronavirus variant and worries it could stall a worldwide economic recovery also weighed on oil prices.</p><p><blockquote>德尔塔新冠病毒变异毒株的全球蔓延以及对其可能阻碍全球经济复苏的担忧也打压了油价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil/update-3-oil-prices-firm-as-u-s-inventories-decline-idUSL2N2OL07F\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XOM":"埃克森美孚"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil/update-3-oil-prices-firm-as-u-s-inventories-decline-idUSL2N2OL07F","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181179663","content_text":"LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second day on Friday as data showed a draw in U.S. inventories, but were heading for a weekly loss amid uncertainty over global supplies after an OPEC+ impasse.\nBrent crude oil futures were up 60 cents, or 0.8%, at $74.72 a barrel by 0845 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 69 cents, or 1%, at $73.63.\nPrices on both sides of the Atlantic were on track for a weekly loss of nearly 2%, dragged down by the collapse of output talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+.\nU.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell and gasoline demand reached its highest since 2019, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, signalling increasing strength in the economy.\n“A bullish EIA stock report helped the oil market rebound into the black,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.\n“Clearly, U.S. oil markets are tight. However ... the only way to prevent further losses is for the threat of an OPEC+ price war to be contained,” he added.\nGains in oil prices were capped by worries that members of the OPEC+ group could be tempted to abandon output limits that they have followed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with talks breaking down because of an impasse between major producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.\nThe two Gulf OPEC allies are at odds over a proposed deal that would have brought more oil to the market.\nRussia was trying to mediate in an effort to strike a deal to raise output, OPEC+ sources said on Wednesday. The United States had high level conversations with officials in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the White House said on Tuesday.\nThe global spread of the Delta coronavirus variant and worries it could stall a worldwide economic recovery also weighed on oil prices.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"XOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141058412,"gmtCreate":1625827119836,"gmtModify":1633936947150,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141058412","repostId":"1181179663","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181179663","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625822664,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181179663?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 17:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Oil prices firm as U.S. inventories decline<blockquote>美国库存下降油价坚挺</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181179663","media":"Reuters","summary":"LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second day on Friday as data showed a draw in U.S. inventor","content":"<p>LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second day on Friday as data showed a draw in U.S. inventories, but were heading for a weekly loss amid uncertainty over global supplies after an OPEC+ impasse.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦（路透社）-由于数据显示美国库存减少，油价周五连续第二天上涨，但由于欧佩克+僵局后全球供应的不确定性，油价将出现每周下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Brent crude oil futures were up 60 cents, or 0.8%, at $74.72 a barrel by 0845 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 69 cents, or 1%, at $73.63.</p><p><blockquote>截至格林威治标准时间0845，布伦特原油期货上涨60美分，或0.8%，至每桶74.72美元。美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货上涨69美分，涨幅1%，报73.63美元。</blockquote></p><p> Prices on both sides of the Atlantic were on track for a weekly loss of nearly 2%, dragged down by the collapse of output talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+.</p><p><blockquote>受石油输出国组织（OPEC）与包括俄罗斯在内的盟友（统称为OPEC+）之间的产量谈判破裂拖累，大西洋两岸的价格有望每周下跌近2%。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell and gasoline demand reached its highest since 2019, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, signalling increasing strength in the economy.</p><p><blockquote>美国能源情报署周四表示，美国原油和汽油库存下降，汽油需求达到2019年以来的最高水平，表明经济实力增强。</blockquote></p><p> “A bullish EIA stock report helped the oil market rebound into the black,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.</p><p><blockquote>石油经纪商PVM的Stephen Brennock表示：“看涨的EIA股票报告帮助石油市场反弹盈利。”</blockquote></p><p> “Clearly, U.S. oil markets are tight. However ... the only way to prevent further losses is for the threat of an OPEC+ price war to be contained,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“显然，美国石油市场紧张。然而……防止进一步损失的唯一方法是遏制OPEC+价格战的威胁，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Gains in oil prices were capped by worries that members of the OPEC+ group could be tempted to abandon output limits that they have followed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with talks breaking down because of an impasse between major producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心OPEC+集团成员国可能会试图放弃他们在COVID-19大流行期间遵循的产量限制，主要产油国沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国之间的僵局导致谈判破裂，油价涨幅受到限制。</blockquote></p><p> The two Gulf OPEC allies are at odds over a proposed deal that would have brought more oil to the market.</p><p><blockquote>这两个海湾石油输出国组织盟友在一项将向市场带来更多石油的拟议协议上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> Russia was trying to mediate in an effort to strike a deal to raise output, OPEC+ sources said on Wednesday. The United States had high level conversations with officials in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the White House said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>OPEC+消息人士周三表示，俄罗斯正试图进行调解，以达成增产协议。白宫周二表示，美国与沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的官员进行了高层对话。</blockquote></p><p> The global spread of the Delta coronavirus variant and worries it could stall a worldwide economic recovery also weighed on oil prices.</p><p><blockquote>德尔塔新冠病毒变异毒株的全球蔓延以及对其可能阻碍全球经济复苏的担忧也打压了油价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil prices firm as U.S. inventories decline<blockquote>美国库存下降油价坚挺</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil prices firm as U.S. inventories decline<blockquote>美国库存下降油价坚挺</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-09 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second day on Friday as data showed a draw in U.S. inventories, but were heading for a weekly loss amid uncertainty over global supplies after an OPEC+ impasse.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦（路透社）-由于数据显示美国库存减少，油价周五连续第二天上涨，但由于欧佩克+僵局后全球供应的不确定性，油价将出现每周下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Brent crude oil futures were up 60 cents, or 0.8%, at $74.72 a barrel by 0845 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 69 cents, or 1%, at $73.63.</p><p><blockquote>截至格林威治标准时间0845，布伦特原油期货上涨60美分，或0.8%，至每桶74.72美元。美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货上涨69美分，涨幅1%，报73.63美元。</blockquote></p><p> Prices on both sides of the Atlantic were on track for a weekly loss of nearly 2%, dragged down by the collapse of output talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+.</p><p><blockquote>受石油输出国组织（OPEC）与包括俄罗斯在内的盟友（统称为OPEC+）之间的产量谈判破裂拖累，大西洋两岸的价格有望每周下跌近2%。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell and gasoline demand reached its highest since 2019, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, signalling increasing strength in the economy.</p><p><blockquote>美国能源情报署周四表示，美国原油和汽油库存下降，汽油需求达到2019年以来的最高水平，表明经济实力增强。</blockquote></p><p> “A bullish EIA stock report helped the oil market rebound into the black,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.</p><p><blockquote>石油经纪商PVM的Stephen Brennock表示：“看涨的EIA股票报告帮助石油市场反弹盈利。”</blockquote></p><p> “Clearly, U.S. oil markets are tight. However ... the only way to prevent further losses is for the threat of an OPEC+ price war to be contained,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“显然，美国石油市场紧张。然而……防止进一步损失的唯一方法是遏制OPEC+价格战的威胁，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Gains in oil prices were capped by worries that members of the OPEC+ group could be tempted to abandon output limits that they have followed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with talks breaking down because of an impasse between major producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心OPEC+集团成员国可能会试图放弃他们在COVID-19大流行期间遵循的产量限制，主要产油国沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国之间的僵局导致谈判破裂，油价涨幅受到限制。</blockquote></p><p> The two Gulf OPEC allies are at odds over a proposed deal that would have brought more oil to the market.</p><p><blockquote>这两个海湾石油输出国组织盟友在一项将向市场带来更多石油的拟议协议上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> Russia was trying to mediate in an effort to strike a deal to raise output, OPEC+ sources said on Wednesday. The United States had high level conversations with officials in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the White House said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>OPEC+消息人士周三表示，俄罗斯正试图进行调解，以达成增产协议。白宫周二表示，美国与沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的官员进行了高层对话。</blockquote></p><p> The global spread of the Delta coronavirus variant and worries it could stall a worldwide economic recovery also weighed on oil prices.</p><p><blockquote>德尔塔新冠病毒变异毒株的全球蔓延以及对其可能阻碍全球经济复苏的担忧也打压了油价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil/update-3-oil-prices-firm-as-u-s-inventories-decline-idUSL2N2OL07F\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XOM":"埃克森美孚"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil/update-3-oil-prices-firm-as-u-s-inventories-decline-idUSL2N2OL07F","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181179663","content_text":"LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second day on Friday as data showed a draw in U.S. inventories, but were heading for a weekly loss amid uncertainty over global supplies after an OPEC+ impasse.\nBrent crude oil futures were up 60 cents, or 0.8%, at $74.72 a barrel by 0845 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 69 cents, or 1%, at $73.63.\nPrices on both sides of the Atlantic were on track for a weekly loss of nearly 2%, dragged down by the collapse of output talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+.\nU.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell and gasoline demand reached its highest since 2019, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, signalling increasing strength in the economy.\n“A bullish EIA stock report helped the oil market rebound into the black,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.\n“Clearly, U.S. oil markets are tight. However ... the only way to prevent further losses is for the threat of an OPEC+ price war to be contained,” he added.\nGains in oil prices were capped by worries that members of the OPEC+ group could be tempted to abandon output limits that they have followed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with talks breaking down because of an impasse between major producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.\nThe two Gulf OPEC allies are at odds over a proposed deal that would have brought more oil to the market.\nRussia was trying to mediate in an effort to strike a deal to raise output, OPEC+ sources said on Wednesday. The United States had high level conversations with officials in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the White House said on Tuesday.\nThe global spread of the Delta coronavirus variant and worries it could stall a worldwide economic recovery also weighed on oil prices.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"XOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141053683,"gmtCreate":1625826912642,"gmtModify":1633936949037,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141053683","repostId":"1113072261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113072261","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625823554,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113072261?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 17:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop Short Seller Melvin Capital Ended 2021 First-Half With 46% Loss: Report<blockquote>游戏驿站卖空者Melvin Capital 2021年上半年亏损46%：报告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113072261","media":"Benzinga","summary":"GameStop Corp. short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of","content":"<p><div> GameStop Corp. short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of 46%, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. What Happened:Founded in ...</p><p><blockquote><div>彭博社周四援引知情人士的话报道称，游戏驿站公司卖空者Melvin Capital Management LP 2021年上半年亏损46%。发生了什么：成立于...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop Short Seller Melvin Capital Ended 2021 First-Half With 46% Loss: Report<blockquote>游戏驿站卖空者Melvin Capital 2021年上半年亏损46%：报告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop Short Seller Melvin Capital Ended 2021 First-Half With 46% Loss: Report<blockquote>游戏驿站卖空者Melvin Capital 2021年上半年亏损46%：报告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-09 17:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> GameStop Corp. short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of 46%, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. What Happened:Founded in ...</p><p><blockquote><div>彭博社周四援引知情人士的话报道称，游戏驿站公司卖空者Melvin Capital Management LP 2021年上半年亏损46%。发生了什么：成立于...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113072261","content_text":"GameStop Corp. short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of 46%, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.\nWhat Happened:Founded in 2014 by Gabe Plotkin, a former portfolio manager for Steve Cohen, Melvin Capital was at the heart of the GameStop saga earlier this year.\nThe hedge fund, which managed $11 billion in assets as of June 1, is taking smaller-sized positions to limit exposure to single companies, as per the report.\nPlotkin has reportedly instructed his team of data scientists to watch social media and message boards to look for shares that are seeing high support from retail investors.\nWhy It Matters:Melvin Capital’s first-half results indicate the hedge fund is struggling to rebound from thelossesit incurred from betting against GameStop and other stonks - stocks popular with retail investors.\nMelvin Capital said in May it has closed out of all its public bearish positions in the first quarter. This included its listed put options in GameStop.\nIt was reported in June that London-based White Square Capital is shutting down after suffering huge losses during the retail trading frenzy earlier in the year. This marked one of the first hedge fund closures following the surge in shares of stonks.\nIn early June,AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. and GameStop short-seller losses swelled up to$12 billionon a year-to-date basis. Both the stocks continue to seehigh interestfrom retail investors.\nPrice Action: AMC Entertainment shares closed almost 6.4% higher in Thursday’s regular trading session at $47.94, while GameStop shares closed almost 0.4% higher at $191.38.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152775995,"gmtCreate":1625361310317,"gmtModify":1633941328331,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"先观望再准备进场","listText":"先观望再准备进场","text":"先观望再准备进场","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152775995","repostId":"1122056398","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122056398","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625280707,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122056398?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122056398","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good b","content":"<p>  <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>  June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>“短期反转策略”通常在7月份表现特别好。</b>6月份表现最差的股票是7月份跑赢美国市场的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为6月底的投资组合装饰将使当月表现不佳的股票比其他情况下下跌得更远。一旦这种人为的抛售压力消失，这些股票很可能会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，装点门面在整个日历中的几个场合都是一股强大的力量，不仅仅是在一年中的这个时候。它应该在12月底产生最大的影响，因为1月初查看其投资组合持股的投资者比一年中任何其他月份都多。因此，基金经理会特意在12月31日之前出售亏损股票，以避免不得不报告他们曾经拥有过这些股票的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p><p><blockquote>经理们为了装饰门面而购买的股票的情况恰恰相反。这些股票已经表现良好，经理们希望在季末持股报告中展示这些股票。他们购买化妆品将导致这些股票表现更好——这反过来又会导致它们在新季度到来时回落。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，一月份是上个月表现最差的公司相对于上个月表现最好的公司表现最好的月份——这种模式被称为“短期逆转效应”。下图说明了这一点，它反映了1926年以来的月度数据。七月是这种模式第二强的月份。这也是有道理的，因为继一月之后，七月是投资者通读经纪报表的下一个最常见的时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p><p><blockquote>同样正如预期的那样，在第一季度和第三季度末，季度末的门面装饰不再是一个因素。事实上，正如你从图表中看到的，短期反转效应在4月份甚至不如非季末月份占优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7月短线反转怎么玩</b></blockquote></p><p> As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，交易所交易基金的创建是为了利用短期反转效应。Vesper美国大盘股短期反转策略ETFUTRN“寻求利用近期经历大幅抛售的股票近期反弹的趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p><p><blockquote>由于该基金是最近才在2018年9月创建的，该ETF此后的平均月回报率仅暗示了长期模式。但其7月份的平均回报率（4.1%）好于其他任何月份。</blockquote></p><p> For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何对6月份表现最差的个股感兴趣的人，我构建了以下列表。我从标准普尔1500指数中6月份回报最差的50只股票开始，然后剔除了我的时事通讯表现跟踪服务监控的任何表现最好的时事通讯目前不推荐的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p><p><blockquote>下面列出的15只股票在这一筛选过程中幸存下来。我注意到，平均而言，这15只股票在6月份下跌了15.4%，而标准普尔500SPX指数则上涨了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>  <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>  <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>  <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>  <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>  <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>  <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>  <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>  <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>  <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>  <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>  <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>  <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>  <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>  <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li> </ul> I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Adient PLC ADNT</li><li>阿拉斯加航空集团ALK</li><li>联盟数据系统广告</li><li>美国汽车市场CRMT</li><li>ArcBest ArcB</li><li>固特异轮胎橡胶GT</li><li>KB主页KBH</li><li>LCI工业LCII</li><li>马赛克公司MOS</li><li>快验快</li><li>纽蒙特公司NEM</li><li>欧加农公司OGN</li><li>帕特里克工业PATK</li><li>地区金融射频</li><li>军刀</li></ul>我还注意到，这些股票的平均市净率为3.3，远低于标普500 4.7的比率。低于平均水平的市净率是价值股的标志，价值股会受到短期反转策略的青睐是有道理的。这是因为价值股在6月份的表现明显落后于成长股——但它们的命运可能很快就会改变。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>  June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>“短期反转策略”通常在7月份表现特别好。</b>6月份表现最差的股票是7月份跑赢美国市场的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为6月底的投资组合装饰将使当月表现不佳的股票比其他情况下下跌得更远。一旦这种人为的抛售压力消失，这些股票很可能会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，装点门面在整个日历中的几个场合都是一股强大的力量，不仅仅是在一年中的这个时候。它应该在12月底产生最大的影响，因为1月初查看其投资组合持股的投资者比一年中任何其他月份都多。因此，基金经理会特意在12月31日之前出售亏损股票，以避免不得不报告他们曾经拥有过这些股票的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p><p><blockquote>经理们为了装饰门面而购买的股票的情况恰恰相反。这些股票已经表现良好，经理们希望在季末持股报告中展示这些股票。他们购买化妆品将导致这些股票表现更好——这反过来又会导致它们在新季度到来时回落。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，一月份是上个月表现最差的公司相对于上个月表现最好的公司表现最好的月份——这种模式被称为“短期逆转效应”。下图说明了这一点，它反映了1926年以来的月度数据。七月是这种模式第二强的月份。这也是有道理的，因为继一月之后，七月是投资者通读经纪报表的下一个最常见的时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p><p><blockquote>同样正如预期的那样，在第一季度和第三季度末，季度末的门面装饰不再是一个因素。事实上，正如你从图表中看到的，短期反转效应在4月份甚至不如非季末月份占优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7月短线反转怎么玩</b></blockquote></p><p> As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，交易所交易基金的创建是为了利用短期反转效应。Vesper美国大盘股短期反转策略ETFUTRN“寻求利用近期经历大幅抛售的股票近期反弹的趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p><p><blockquote>由于该基金是最近才在2018年9月创建的，该ETF此后的平均月回报率仅暗示了长期模式。但其7月份的平均回报率（4.1%）好于其他任何月份。</blockquote></p><p> For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何对6月份表现最差的个股感兴趣的人，我构建了以下列表。我从标准普尔1500指数中6月份回报最差的50只股票开始，然后剔除了我的时事通讯表现跟踪服务监控的任何表现最好的时事通讯目前不推荐的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p><p><blockquote>下面列出的15只股票在这一筛选过程中幸存下来。我注意到，平均而言，这15只股票在6月份下跌了15.4%，而标准普尔500SPX指数则上涨了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>  <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>  <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>  <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>  <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>  <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>  <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>  <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>  <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>  <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>  <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>  <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>  <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>  <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>  <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li> </ul> I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Adient PLC ADNT</li><li>阿拉斯加航空集团ALK</li><li>联盟数据系统广告</li><li>美国汽车市场CRMT</li><li>ArcBest ArcB</li><li>固特异轮胎橡胶GT</li><li>KB主页KBH</li><li>LCI工业LCII</li><li>马赛克公司MOS</li><li>快验快</li><li>纽蒙特公司NEM</li><li>欧加农公司OGN</li><li>帕特里克工业PATK</li><li>地区金融射频</li><li>军刀</li></ul>我还注意到，这些股票的平均市净率为3.3，远低于标普500 4.7的比率。低于平均水平的市净率是价值股的标志，价值股会受到短期反转策略的青睐是有道理的。这是因为价值股在6月份的表现明显落后于成长股——但它们的命运可能很快就会改变。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARCB":"ArcBest Corporation","RF":"地区金融","GT":"固特异轮胎橡胶公司","CRMT":"美国汽车行","ALK":"阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司","ADNT":"Adient PLC","KBH":"KB Home","PATK":"Patrick Industries","OGN":"Organon & Co","MOS":"美国美盛","MED":"快验保","NEM":"纽曼矿业","LCII":"LCI Industries","SABR":"Sabre Corporation"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122056398","content_text":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.\nThat’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.\nTo be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.\nJust the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.\nAs expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.\n\nAlso as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.\nHow to play the short-term reversal in July\nAs is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”\nBecause the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.\nFor anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.\nThe 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&P 500SPX.\n\nAdient PLC ADNT\nAlaska Air Group ALK\nAlliance Data Systems ADS\nAmerica’s Car Mart CRMT\nArcBest ARCB\nGoodyear Tire & Rubber GT\nKB Home KBH\nLCI Industries LCII\nMosaic & Co .MOS\nMedifast MED\nNewmont Corp. NEM\nOrganon & Co. OGN\nPatrick Industries PATK\nRegions Financial RF\nSabre SABR\n\nI also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ADS":0.9,"KBH":0.9,"ADNT":0.9,"RF":0.9,"SABR":0.9,"MED":0.9,"GT":0.9,"ARCB":0.9,"CRMT":0.9,"NEM":0.9,"PATK":0.9,"ALK":0.9,"OGN":0.9,"MOS":0.9,"LCII":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":703,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":152778706,"gmtCreate":1625361178705,"gmtModify":1633941330795,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152778706","repostId":"1192257130","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156870586,"gmtCreate":1625214398445,"gmtModify":1633942475894,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还是先看看市场走势，再做决定比较保险","listText":"还是先看看市场走势，再做决定比较保险","text":"还是先看看市场走势，再做决定比较保险","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156870586","repostId":"2148041829","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":802629062,"gmtCreate":1627777869656,"gmtModify":1631889065885,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"买卖股票之前，还是要做些功课。","listText":"买卖股票之前，还是要做些功课。","text":"买卖股票之前，还是要做些功课。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802629062","repostId":"1127411624","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127411624","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627715622,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127411624?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 15:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>这是股市下一次暴跌之前您的待办事项清单</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127411624","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, t","content":"<p>After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.42%tumbled 725 points or 2.1%. The bears hit a home run — at least for a day.</p><p><blockquote>经过几个月的冬眠，股市空头于7月19日走出了洞穴。当天，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA下跌725点，跌幅2.1%，-0.42%。熊队打出了一个本垒打——至少一天。</blockquote></p><p> As usual, everyone wanted to know why the market fell, and the analysts had prepared answers, from COVID-19’s Delta variant to the Consumer Price Index to overbought technical indicators.</p><p><blockquote>像往常一样，每个人都想知道市场下跌的原因，分析师们已经准备好了答案，从COVID-19的德尔塔变异毒株到消费者价格指数，再到超买的技术指标。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that nobody knows. People have multiple reasons for selling, so it’s ridiculous to blame one event. That said, a big contributor to the decline was automatic, computer-generated selling. Once large market participants, especially algos, started selling, there was a mad rush out of the door. No one wanted to be the last one out, so retail traders and institutions sold in a panic, which got more intense as the day went on.</p><p><blockquote>事实是没人知道。人们出售有多种原因，因此将责任归咎于一个事件是荒谬的。也就是说，下降的一个重要原因是计算机生成的自动销售。一旦大型市场参与者，尤其是算法，开始抛售，就会出现疯狂的抛售。没有人想成为最后一个出局的人，因此散户和机构在恐慌中抛售，随着时间的推移，恐慌情绪变得更加强烈。</blockquote></p><p> Technical indicators contributed as well: The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been remarkably accurate in warning of a market reversal. Once RSI goes over 70 and stays there, buyers beware.&nbsp; After the July 26 market close, the RSI of the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.54%stood at 71.36 on the weekly chart — an extremely overbought reading. Does this mean that the index is going to plunge tomorrow? No one knows. But RSI is giving a clue that the U.S. market is in the danger zone.</p><p><blockquote>技术指标也做出了贡献：每周相对强弱指标（RSI）在警告市场逆转方面非常准确。一旦RSI超过70并保持在那里，买家就要小心了。7月26日收盘后，标准普尔500SPX的RSI，-0.54%在周线图上站在71.36——这是一个极度超买的读数。这是不是意味着指数明天要暴跌了？没人知道。但RSI给出了美国市场处于危险区域的线索。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bad news bears can’t catch a break</b></p><p><blockquote><b>坏消息空头无法休息</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the bears could say, “I told you so,” the next day, July 20, the 700-plus point Dow selloff was erased by a 550-point Dow rally. The bulls forgot about the selloff and returned to celebrating, and gulping glass after glass of their favorite drink, “bull-ade.” Once again, the storm passed, but this time a little fear creeped into the bulls’ psyche. Before, the only fear was the fear of missing out on the next rally. Now, many investors realize the market can actually go down.</p><p><blockquote>在空头说“我告诉过你”之前，第二天，即7月20日，道琼斯指数700多点的抛售被道琼斯指数550点的反弹抹去了。多头忘记了抛售，重新开始庆祝，一杯又一杯地喝着他们最喜欢的饮料“bull-ade”。风暴又一次过去了，但这一次有点恐惧爬进了公牛的心灵。之前，唯一的恐惧是害怕错过下一次反弹。现在，许多投资者意识到市场实际上可能会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> The next time the market plunges and you’re experiencing a variety of emotions, the following guide might help:</p><p><blockquote>下次市场暴跌并且您正在经历各种情绪时，以下指南可能会有所帮助：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. If you’re panicked</b>: Don’t do something; sit there. Do not buy, do not sell, just sit tight. In fact, turn off the computer or other devices. Don’t fret over how much paper money you lost that day. Exercise, walk, run, swim, ride a bike. Your goal is to reduce emotions so you can get a good night’s sleep. When the market stabilizes, reevaluate what you own. Do not make any big financial decisions on days like this.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.如果你感到恐慌</b>：不做某事；坐在那里。不买，不卖，坐稳。事实上，关掉电脑或其他设备。不要担心那天你丢了多少纸币。锻炼，散步，跑步，游泳，骑自行车。你的目标是减少情绪，这样你就能睡个好觉。当市场稳定时，重新评估你所拥有的。在这样的日子里，不要做任何重大的财务决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. If you’re afraid</b>: Take it easy. The selloff will end eventually. There is no reason to panic. Again, reevaluate what you own when the market comes to its senses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2.如果你害怕</b>：放轻松。抛售最终会结束。没有理由恐慌。同样，当市场恢复理智时，重新评估你所拥有的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. If you’re unaffected:</b>Still, check your portfolio to make sure you are properly diversified. While it’s find to not care if the market falls, be sure you are hedged for a worst-case scenario. One day there will be a bear market that will last months or years. Be prepared.</p><p><blockquote><b>3.如果您没有受到影响：</b>不过，请检查您的投资组合以确保您的投资组合适当多元化。虽然人们发现不要关心市场是否下跌，但要确保你为最坏的情况做好了对冲。总有一天会出现持续数月或数年的熊市。做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What specific actions should you take?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你应该采取什么具体行动？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now that you’ve taken care of your emotional health, there are other financial decisions you can make. Let’s take a look atsome strategies and tacticsthat may help:</p><p><blockquote>既然你已经照顾好了自己的情绪健康，你还可以做出其他的财务决定。让我们来看看一些可能有帮助的战略和战术：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Sell if the stocks or indexes you own fall below their 200-day moving averages. Note: The major indexes such as the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500SPX,-0.54%have not fallen below (and stayed below) their 200-day averages for a decade. When they do eventually, that is a clear sell signal.</li>  <li>Create a long-term investment plan and follow it no matter what happens in the short term.</li>  <li>Dollar-cost average into index funds.</li>  <li>Diversify. This is the key to success in the stock market and in life. If you own only stocks, consider bonds, but talk to a financial professional (not your neighbor) before taking this step.</li>  <li>Buy the big dips. This strategy still works. If you had bought the dip on July 19, you would have cleaned up on July 20. One day this strategy won’t work, but that day hasn’t come yet.</li>  <li>Sell covered-call options. This is still an excellent way to generate extra income. This strategy is also ideal for disposing of unwanted stocks, and getting paid for it.</li> </ol> <b>Plan for the next correction or bear market</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果您持有的股票或指数跌破200日移动平均线，则卖出。注：标准普尔500SPX,-0.54%等主要指数十年来没有跌破（并保持在低于）200日平均水平。当他们最终这样做时，这是一个明确的卖出信号。</li><li>制定一个长期投资计划，无论短期内发生什么都要遵循它。</li><li>指数基金的平均成本。</li><li>多样化。这是股市和人生成功的关键。如果您只持有股票，请考虑债券，但在采取这一步骤之前请与金融专业人士（而不是您的邻居）交谈。</li><li>逢低买入。这个策略仍然有效。如果你在7月19日逢低买入，你就会在7月20日清理干净。总有一天这种策略行不通了，但那一天还没有到来。</li><li>出售备兑看涨期权期权。这仍然是产生额外收入的绝佳方式。这种策略也非常适合处理不需要的股票并获得报酬。</li></ol><b>为下一次调整或熊市做好计划</b></blockquote></p><p> After a 13-year bull market, the clock is ticking for U.S. stocks. While the bulls scored another victory this time, one day the market won’t reverse direction and will begin a steep correction, or worse yet, a bear market. That’s when you will be glad that you have a plan and an investment script to follow on the worst days.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了13年的牛市之后，美国股市的时间已经不多了。虽然多头这次又取得了胜利，但有一天市场不会逆转方向，将开始急剧调整，或者更糟的是，进入熊市。那时你会很高兴你有一个计划和一个在最糟糕的日子里可以遵循的投资脚本。</blockquote></p><p> Know what you own, sell to the “sleep-well” point and diversify into a variety of financial products including cash and bonds. This way, when the market plunges again, you won’t make knee-jerk emotional decisions or suffer an anxiety attack.</p><p><blockquote>了解您拥有什么，将其出售到“睡眠良好”点，并多元化投资于包括现金和债券在内的各种金融产品。这样，当市场再次暴跌时，你就不会做出下意识的情绪化决定或遭受焦虑发作。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>这是股市下一次暴跌之前您的待办事项清单</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s your to-do list before the stock market’s next dive<blockquote>这是股市下一次暴跌之前您的待办事项清单</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 15:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.42%tumbled 725 points or 2.1%. The bears hit a home run — at least for a day.</p><p><blockquote>经过几个月的冬眠，股市空头于7月19日走出了洞穴。当天，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA下跌725点，跌幅2.1%，-0.42%。熊队打出了一个本垒打——至少一天。</blockquote></p><p> As usual, everyone wanted to know why the market fell, and the analysts had prepared answers, from COVID-19’s Delta variant to the Consumer Price Index to overbought technical indicators.</p><p><blockquote>像往常一样，每个人都想知道市场下跌的原因，分析师们已经准备好了答案，从COVID-19的德尔塔变异毒株到消费者价格指数，再到超买的技术指标。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that nobody knows. People have multiple reasons for selling, so it’s ridiculous to blame one event. That said, a big contributor to the decline was automatic, computer-generated selling. Once large market participants, especially algos, started selling, there was a mad rush out of the door. No one wanted to be the last one out, so retail traders and institutions sold in a panic, which got more intense as the day went on.</p><p><blockquote>事实是没人知道。人们出售有多种原因，因此将责任归咎于一个事件是荒谬的。也就是说，下降的一个重要原因是计算机生成的自动销售。一旦大型市场参与者，尤其是算法，开始抛售，就会出现疯狂的抛售。没有人想成为最后一个出局的人，因此散户和机构在恐慌中抛售，随着时间的推移，恐慌情绪变得更加强烈。</blockquote></p><p> Technical indicators contributed as well: The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been remarkably accurate in warning of a market reversal. Once RSI goes over 70 and stays there, buyers beware.&nbsp; After the July 26 market close, the RSI of the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.54%stood at 71.36 on the weekly chart — an extremely overbought reading. Does this mean that the index is going to plunge tomorrow? No one knows. But RSI is giving a clue that the U.S. market is in the danger zone.</p><p><blockquote>技术指标也做出了贡献：每周相对强弱指标（RSI）在警告市场逆转方面非常准确。一旦RSI超过70并保持在那里，买家就要小心了。7月26日收盘后，标准普尔500SPX的RSI，-0.54%在周线图上站在71.36——这是一个极度超买的读数。这是不是意味着指数明天要暴跌了？没人知道。但RSI给出了美国市场处于危险区域的线索。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bad news bears can’t catch a break</b></p><p><blockquote><b>坏消息空头无法休息</b></blockquote></p><p> Before the bears could say, “I told you so,” the next day, July 20, the 700-plus point Dow selloff was erased by a 550-point Dow rally. The bulls forgot about the selloff and returned to celebrating, and gulping glass after glass of their favorite drink, “bull-ade.” Once again, the storm passed, but this time a little fear creeped into the bulls’ psyche. Before, the only fear was the fear of missing out on the next rally. Now, many investors realize the market can actually go down.</p><p><blockquote>在空头说“我告诉过你”之前，第二天，即7月20日，道琼斯指数700多点的抛售被道琼斯指数550点的反弹抹去了。多头忘记了抛售，重新开始庆祝，一杯又一杯地喝着他们最喜欢的饮料“bull-ade”。风暴又一次过去了，但这一次有点恐惧爬进了公牛的心灵。之前，唯一的恐惧是害怕错过下一次反弹。现在，许多投资者意识到市场实际上可能会下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to do now</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p> The next time the market plunges and you’re experiencing a variety of emotions, the following guide might help:</p><p><blockquote>下次市场暴跌并且您正在经历各种情绪时，以下指南可能会有所帮助：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. If you’re panicked</b>: Don’t do something; sit there. Do not buy, do not sell, just sit tight. In fact, turn off the computer or other devices. Don’t fret over how much paper money you lost that day. Exercise, walk, run, swim, ride a bike. Your goal is to reduce emotions so you can get a good night’s sleep. When the market stabilizes, reevaluate what you own. Do not make any big financial decisions on days like this.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.如果你感到恐慌</b>：不做某事；坐在那里。不买，不卖，坐稳。事实上，关掉电脑或其他设备。不要担心那天你丢了多少纸币。锻炼，散步，跑步，游泳，骑自行车。你的目标是减少情绪，这样你就能睡个好觉。当市场稳定时，重新评估你所拥有的。在这样的日子里，不要做任何重大的财务决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. If you’re afraid</b>: Take it easy. The selloff will end eventually. There is no reason to panic. Again, reevaluate what you own when the market comes to its senses.</p><p><blockquote><b>2.如果你害怕</b>：放轻松。抛售最终会结束。没有理由恐慌。同样，当市场恢复理智时，重新评估你所拥有的东西。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. If you’re unaffected:</b>Still, check your portfolio to make sure you are properly diversified. While it’s find to not care if the market falls, be sure you are hedged for a worst-case scenario. One day there will be a bear market that will last months or years. Be prepared.</p><p><blockquote><b>3.如果您没有受到影响：</b>不过，请检查您的投资组合以确保您的投资组合适当多元化。虽然人们发现不要关心市场是否下跌，但要确保你为最坏的情况做好了对冲。总有一天会出现持续数月或数年的熊市。做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What specific actions should you take?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你应该采取什么具体行动？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now that you’ve taken care of your emotional health, there are other financial decisions you can make. Let’s take a look atsome strategies and tacticsthat may help:</p><p><blockquote>既然你已经照顾好了自己的情绪健康，你还可以做出其他的财务决定。让我们来看看一些可能有帮助的战略和战术：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Sell if the stocks or indexes you own fall below their 200-day moving averages. Note: The major indexes such as the Standard &amp; Poor’s 500SPX,-0.54%have not fallen below (and stayed below) their 200-day averages for a decade. When they do eventually, that is a clear sell signal.</li>  <li>Create a long-term investment plan and follow it no matter what happens in the short term.</li>  <li>Dollar-cost average into index funds.</li>  <li>Diversify. This is the key to success in the stock market and in life. If you own only stocks, consider bonds, but talk to a financial professional (not your neighbor) before taking this step.</li>  <li>Buy the big dips. This strategy still works. If you had bought the dip on July 19, you would have cleaned up on July 20. One day this strategy won’t work, but that day hasn’t come yet.</li>  <li>Sell covered-call options. This is still an excellent way to generate extra income. This strategy is also ideal for disposing of unwanted stocks, and getting paid for it.</li> </ol> <b>Plan for the next correction or bear market</b></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>如果您持有的股票或指数跌破200日移动平均线，则卖出。注：标准普尔500SPX,-0.54%等主要指数十年来没有跌破（并保持在低于）200日平均水平。当他们最终这样做时，这是一个明确的卖出信号。</li><li>制定一个长期投资计划，无论短期内发生什么都要遵循它。</li><li>指数基金的平均成本。</li><li>多样化。这是股市和人生成功的关键。如果您只持有股票，请考虑债券，但在采取这一步骤之前请与金融专业人士（而不是您的邻居）交谈。</li><li>逢低买入。这个策略仍然有效。如果你在7月19日逢低买入，你就会在7月20日清理干净。总有一天这种策略行不通了，但那一天还没有到来。</li><li>出售备兑看涨期权期权。这仍然是产生额外收入的绝佳方式。这种策略也非常适合处理不需要的股票并获得报酬。</li></ol><b>为下一次调整或熊市做好计划</b></blockquote></p><p> After a 13-year bull market, the clock is ticking for U.S. stocks. While the bulls scored another victory this time, one day the market won’t reverse direction and will begin a steep correction, or worse yet, a bear market. That’s when you will be glad that you have a plan and an investment script to follow on the worst days.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了13年的牛市之后，美国股市的时间已经不多了。虽然多头这次又取得了胜利，但有一天市场不会逆转方向，将开始急剧调整，或者更糟的是，进入熊市。那时你会很高兴你有一个计划和一个在最糟糕的日子里可以遵循的投资脚本。</blockquote></p><p> Know what you own, sell to the “sleep-well” point and diversify into a variety of financial products including cash and bonds. This way, when the market plunges again, you won’t make knee-jerk emotional decisions or suffer an anxiety attack.</p><p><blockquote>了解您拥有什么，将其出售到“睡眠良好”点，并多元化投资于包括现金和债券在内的各种金融产品。这样，当市场再次暴跌时，你就不会做出下意识的情绪化决定或遭受焦虑发作。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-your-to-do-list-before-the-stock-markets-next-dive-11627360870?mod=article_inline\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-your-to-do-list-before-the-stock-markets-next-dive-11627360870?mod=article_inline","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127411624","content_text":"After hibernating for months, the stock-market bears came out of their caves on July 19. That day, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.42%tumbled 725 points or 2.1%. The bears hit a home run — at least for a day.\nAs usual, everyone wanted to know why the market fell, and the analysts had prepared answers, from COVID-19’s Delta variant to the Consumer Price Index to overbought technical indicators.\nThe truth is that nobody knows. People have multiple reasons for selling, so it’s ridiculous to blame one event. That said, a big contributor to the decline was automatic, computer-generated selling. Once large market participants, especially algos, started selling, there was a mad rush out of the door. No one wanted to be the last one out, so retail traders and institutions sold in a panic, which got more intense as the day went on.\nTechnical indicators contributed as well: The weekly relative strength indicator (RSI) has been remarkably accurate in warning of a market reversal. Once RSI goes over 70 and stays there, buyers beware.  After the July 26 market close, the RSI of the S&P 500SPX,-0.54%stood at 71.36 on the weekly chart — an extremely overbought reading. Does this mean that the index is going to plunge tomorrow? No one knows. But RSI is giving a clue that the U.S. market is in the danger zone.\nThe bad news bears can’t catch a break\nBefore the bears could say, “I told you so,” the next day, July 20, the 700-plus point Dow selloff was erased by a 550-point Dow rally. The bulls forgot about the selloff and returned to celebrating, and gulping glass after glass of their favorite drink, “bull-ade.” Once again, the storm passed, but this time a little fear creeped into the bulls’ psyche. Before, the only fear was the fear of missing out on the next rally. Now, many investors realize the market can actually go down.\nWhat to do now\nThe next time the market plunges and you’re experiencing a variety of emotions, the following guide might help:\n1. If you’re panicked: Don’t do something; sit there. Do not buy, do not sell, just sit tight. In fact, turn off the computer or other devices. Don’t fret over how much paper money you lost that day. Exercise, walk, run, swim, ride a bike. Your goal is to reduce emotions so you can get a good night’s sleep. When the market stabilizes, reevaluate what you own. Do not make any big financial decisions on days like this.\n2. If you’re afraid: Take it easy. The selloff will end eventually. There is no reason to panic. Again, reevaluate what you own when the market comes to its senses.\n3. If you’re unaffected:Still, check your portfolio to make sure you are properly diversified. While it’s find to not care if the market falls, be sure you are hedged for a worst-case scenario. One day there will be a bear market that will last months or years. Be prepared.\nWhat specific actions should you take?\nNow that you’ve taken care of your emotional health, there are other financial decisions you can make. Let’s take a look atsome strategies and tacticsthat may help:\n\nSell if the stocks or indexes you own fall below their 200-day moving averages. Note: The major indexes such as the Standard & Poor’s 500SPX,-0.54%have not fallen below (and stayed below) their 200-day averages for a decade. When they do eventually, that is a clear sell signal.\nCreate a long-term investment plan and follow it no matter what happens in the short term.\nDollar-cost average into index funds.\nDiversify. This is the key to success in the stock market and in life. If you own only stocks, consider bonds, but talk to a financial professional (not your neighbor) before taking this step.\nBuy the big dips. This strategy still works. If you had bought the dip on July 19, you would have cleaned up on July 20. One day this strategy won’t work, but that day hasn’t come yet.\nSell covered-call options. This is still an excellent way to generate extra income. This strategy is also ideal for disposing of unwanted stocks, and getting paid for it.\n\nPlan for the next correction or bear market\nAfter a 13-year bull market, the clock is ticking for U.S. stocks. While the bulls scored another victory this time, one day the market won’t reverse direction and will begin a steep correction, or worse yet, a bear market. That’s when you will be glad that you have a plan and an investment script to follow on the worst days.\nKnow what you own, sell to the “sleep-well” point and diversify into a variety of financial products including cash and bonds. This way, when the market plunges again, you won’t make knee-jerk emotional decisions or suffer an anxiety attack.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":801581813,"gmtCreate":1627522996932,"gmtModify":1631889065884,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"耐心等待","listText":"耐心等待","text":"耐心等待","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801581813","repostId":"1127264445","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127264445","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627514621,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127264445?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 07:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127264445","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after th","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and Chair Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> said the central bank was still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约3月19日-标普500周三收盘变化不大，但脱离盘中低点，此前美联储表示美国经济复苏仍在正轨上，主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>表示央行距离考虑加息还有一段路要走。</blockquote></p><p> Keeping the market in check, shares of tech giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc fell 1.2% after it forecast slowing revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>控制市场，科技巨头的股票<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Inc预测收入增长放缓，股价下跌1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> In a news conference following the release of a new policy statement from the Fed, Powell also said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back from the economic support the U.S. central bank put in place in the spring of 2020 to battle the coronavirus pandemic’s economic shocks.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储发布新政策声明后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔还表示，在退出美联储提供的经济支持之前，美国就业市场仍有“一些地方需要覆盖”。2020年春季，以应对冠状病毒大流行的经济冲击。</blockquote></p><p> “It looks like probably the most positive thing for the market was that they are nowhere near increasing interest rates,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz &amp; Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于俄亥俄州托莱多的投资咨询公司Alan B.Lancz&amp;Associates Inc总裁艾伦·兰茨(Alan Lancz)表示：“看起来对市场来说最积极的事情可能是他们远未加息。”</blockquote></p><p> Right after the Fed statement, the S&amp;P 500 index reversed slight declines though it still ended a hair lower on the day.</p><p><blockquote>美联储声明发布后，标普500指数扭转了小幅跌势，但当天收盘仍小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> have been worried about how rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases might impact the central bank’s plan to potentially start withdrawing its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>一直担心通胀上升和COVID-19病例激增可能会影响央行可能开始撤回刺激措施的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank also said that higher inflation remained the result of “transitory factors.” The Fed kept its overnight benchmark interest rate near zero and left unchanged its bond-buying program.</p><p><blockquote>央行还表示，通胀上升仍然是“暂时性因素”的结果。美联储将隔夜基准利率维持在零附近，并维持债券购买计划不变。</blockquote></p><p> The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> ended higher and shares of Google parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc hit an all-time high as a surge in advertising spending helped it post record quarterly results. The stock ended up 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>谷歌母公司股价收高<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>由于广告支出激增帮助其公布了创纪录的季度业绩，Inc创下历史新高。该股收盘上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.59 points, or 0.36%, to 34,930.93, the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.82 point, or 0.02%, to 4,400.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 102.01 points, or 0.7%, to 14,762.58.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌127.59点，跌幅0.36%，至34,930.93点；标普500下跌0.82点，跌幅0.02%，至4,400.64点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨102.01点，跌幅0.7%，至14,762.58点。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement came at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明是在最近一次为期两天的政策会议结束时发表的。</blockquote></p><p> “They had a chance to signal they were going to become more hawkish and they chose not to take it. The most important thing is they are predictable and they are remaining predictable,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">Wellesley</a>, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>F.L.投资组合经理Ellen Hazen表示：“他们有机会发出信号，表明他们将变得更加鹰派，但他们选择不接受。最重要的是，他们是可预测的，而且仍然是可预测的。”普特南投资管理公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">韦尔斯利</a>，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> In other earnings news, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> Corp ended down 0.1% even as a boom in cloud services helped it beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>在其他财报消息中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>尽管云服务的繁荣帮助其收入和盈利超出了华尔街的预期，但该公司收盘下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.86 billion shares, compared with a similar average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为98.6亿股，而过去20个交易日的全交易日平均成交量相似。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.61-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.85比1；在纳斯达克，2.61比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 67 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下42个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得44个新高和67个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 ends off day's lows; Powell says Fed still a ways away from rate hikes<blockquote>标普500收于当日低点；鲍威尔称美联储距离加息还有很长的路要走</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-29 07:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and Chair Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> said the central bank was still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>路透纽约3月19日-标普500周三收盘变化不大，但脱离盘中低点，此前美联储表示美国经济复苏仍在正轨上，主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>表示央行距离考虑加息还有一段路要走。</blockquote></p><p> Keeping the market in check, shares of tech giant <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc fell 1.2% after it forecast slowing revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>控制市场，科技巨头的股票<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Inc预测收入增长放缓，股价下跌1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> In a news conference following the release of a new policy statement from the Fed, Powell also said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back from the economic support the U.S. central bank put in place in the spring of 2020 to battle the coronavirus pandemic’s economic shocks.</p><p><blockquote>在美联储发布新政策声明后的新闻发布会上，鲍威尔还表示，在退出美联储提供的经济支持之前，美国就业市场仍有“一些地方需要覆盖”。2020年春季，以应对冠状病毒大流行的经济冲击。</blockquote></p><p> “It looks like probably the most positive thing for the market was that they are nowhere near increasing interest rates,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz &amp; Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于俄亥俄州托莱多的投资咨询公司Alan B.Lancz&amp;Associates Inc总裁艾伦·兰茨(Alan Lancz)表示：“看起来对市场来说最积极的事情可能是他们远未加息。”</blockquote></p><p> Right after the Fed statement, the S&amp;P 500 index reversed slight declines though it still ended a hair lower on the day.</p><p><blockquote>美联储声明发布后，标普500指数扭转了小幅跌势，但当天收盘仍小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> have been worried about how rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases might impact the central bank’s plan to potentially start withdrawing its stimulus.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>一直担心通胀上升和COVID-19病例激增可能会影响央行可能开始撤回刺激措施的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The central bank also said that higher inflation remained the result of “transitory factors.” The Fed kept its overnight benchmark interest rate near zero and left unchanged its bond-buying program.</p><p><blockquote>央行还表示，通胀上升仍然是“暂时性因素”的结果。美联储将隔夜基准利率维持在零附近，并维持债券购买计划不变。</blockquote></p><p> The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> ended higher and shares of Google parent <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc hit an all-time high as a surge in advertising spending helped it post record quarterly results. The stock ended up 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>The<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>谷歌母公司股价收高<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>由于广告支出激增帮助其公布了创纪录的季度业绩，Inc创下历史新高。该股收盘上涨3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.59 points, or 0.36%, to 34,930.93, the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.82 point, or 0.02%, to 4,400.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 102.01 points, or 0.7%, to 14,762.58.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌127.59点，跌幅0.36%，至34,930.93点；标普500下跌0.82点，跌幅0.02%，至4,400.64点；纳斯达克综合指数上涨102.01点，跌幅0.7%，至14,762.58点。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement came at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting.</p><p><blockquote>美联储的声明是在最近一次为期两天的政策会议结束时发表的。</blockquote></p><p> “They had a chance to signal they were going to become more hawkish and they chose not to take it. The most important thing is they are predictable and they are remaining predictable,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">Wellesley</a>, Massachusetts.</p><p><blockquote>F.L.投资组合经理Ellen Hazen表示：“他们有机会发出信号，表明他们将变得更加鹰派，但他们选择不接受。最重要的是，他们是可预测的，而且仍然是可预测的。”普特南投资管理公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WEBK\">韦尔斯利</a>，马萨诸塞州。</blockquote></p><p> In other earnings news, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">Microsoft</a> Corp ended down 0.1% even as a boom in cloud services helped it beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>在其他财报消息中，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>尽管云服务的繁荣帮助其收入和盈利超出了华尔街的预期，但该公司收盘下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.86 billion shares, compared with a similar average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为98.6亿股，而过去20个交易日的全交易日平均成交量相似。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.61-to-1 ratio favored advancers.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.85比1；在纳斯达克，2.61比1的比率有利于上涨者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 67 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下42个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得44个新高和67个新低。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-ends-off-days-lows-powell-says-fed-still-a-ways-away-from-rate-hikes-idUSL1N2P435H\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-ends-off-days-lows-powell-says-fed-still-a-ways-away-from-rate-hikes-idUSL1N2P435H","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127264445","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended little changed on Wednesday but off its session lows after the Federal Reserve said the U.S. economic recovery remains on track and Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank was still a ways away from considering raising interest rates.\nKeeping the market in check, shares of tech giant Apple Inc fell 1.2% after it forecast slowing revenue growth.\nIn a news conference following the release of a new policy statement from the Fed, Powell also said the U.S. job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to pull back from the economic support the U.S. central bank put in place in the spring of 2020 to battle the coronavirus pandemic’s economic shocks.\n“It looks like probably the most positive thing for the market was that they are nowhere near increasing interest rates,” said Alan Lancz, president, Alan B. Lancz & Associates Inc, an investment advisory firm based in Toledo, Ohio.\nRight after the Fed statement, the S&P 500 index reversed slight declines though it still ended a hair lower on the day.\nInvestors have been worried about how rising inflation and a spike in COVID-19 cases might impact the central bank’s plan to potentially start withdrawing its stimulus.\nThe central bank also said that higher inflation remained the result of “transitory factors.” The Fed kept its overnight benchmark interest rate near zero and left unchanged its bond-buying program.\nThe Nasdaq ended higher and shares of Google parent Alphabet Inc hit an all-time high as a surge in advertising spending helped it post record quarterly results. The stock ended up 3.2%.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 127.59 points, or 0.36%, to 34,930.93, the S&P 500 lost 0.82 point, or 0.02%, to 4,400.64 and the Nasdaq Composite added 102.01 points, or 0.7%, to 14,762.58.\nThe Fed’s statement came at the conclusion of its latest two-day policy meeting.\n“They had a chance to signal they were going to become more hawkish and they chose not to take it. The most important thing is they are predictable and they are remaining predictable,” said Ellen Hazen, portfolio manager at F.L. Putnam Investment Management in Wellesley, Massachusetts.\nIn other earnings news, Microsoft Corp ended down 0.1% even as a boom in cloud services helped it beat Wall Street expectations for revenue and earnings.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 9.86 billion shares, compared with a similar average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.61-to-1 ratio favored advancers.\nThe S&P 500 posted 42 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 44 new highs and 67 new lows.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"OEX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SH":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"SDS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":809925148,"gmtCreate":1627344967484,"gmtModify":1631889065906,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"很多人是苹果的粉丝， 我也喜欢用ipad. 所以对它有信心。&nbsp;","listText":"很多人是苹果的粉丝， 我也喜欢用ipad. 所以对它有信心。&nbsp;","text":"很多人是苹果的粉丝， 我也喜欢用ipad. 所以对它有信心。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809925148","repostId":"1100647798","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100647798","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627313442,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100647798?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 23:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100647798","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"After the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple  for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.I'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as we","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares go into report near all-time high.</li>  <li>Estimates surge after two massive beats.</li>  <li>Timing of product launches will shift revenue picture.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股价接近历史新高。</li><li>两次大幅上涨后，预估值飙升。</li><li>产品发布的时间将改变收入状况。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple (AAPL) for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.</p><p><blockquote>周二盘后，我们将收到科技巨头苹果(AAPL)截至6月底的第三财季业绩。由于该公司前两个季度的收益报告超出了华尔街的预期，预期持续上升也就不足为奇了。随着最近几周股价上涨至历史新高，可能需要另一份强劲的报告来维持局面。</blockquote></p><p> For the first half of fiscal 2021, Apple's revenues have beaten street estimates by an average of $10.25 billion per quarter. The fiscal Q3&nbsp;current average estimate&nbsp;is $73.44 billion, which would represent growth of more than 23% from the year-ago period. It's quite impressive that the current average is up more than $13 billion over the past year. On the bottom line, the street is looking for $1.01, growth of more than 56%. In the table below, you can see some Q3 key financial items for the past two years, with the current estimates for this year's period in yellow. Dollar values are millions except per share amounts.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年上半年，苹果的收入平均每季度超出华尔街预期102.5亿美元。第三财季目前的平均预期为734.4亿美元，比去年同期增长23%以上。令人印象深刻的是，目前的平均水平在过去一年中增长了超过130亿美元。从底线来看，华尔街的目标是1.01美元，增长超过56%。在下表中，您可以看到过去两年第三季度的一些关键财务项目，今年同期的当前估计为黄色。除每股金额外，美元价值为数百万。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df8630a7ef0be70113aeac0d50265a57\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(*Numbers estimated based on last year's split. Actual numbers to come from the company. Source: Fiscal Q3 2020 report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（*根据去年的拆分估算的数字。实际数字来自公司。资料来源：2020财年第三季度报告）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple is comingoff arguably&nbsp;its best quarter ever. Revenues for the iPhone were up more than 65.5% over the prior-year period, with the Mac up more than 70% and iPad up nearly 79%. Fiscal Q2 overall revenue growth was nearly 54%, so this time around we're looking for about 40% of that figure. Don't forget, on the&nbsp;Q2 conference call, management talked about a $3 billion to $4 billion revenue hit in the June period from supply constraints.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可以说是有史以来最好的季度。iPhone的收入同比增长超过65.5%，Mac增长超过70%，iPad增长近79%。第二财季整体收入增长近54%，因此这次我们预计这一数字的40%左右。别忘了，在第二季度电话会议上，管理层谈到6月份期间供应限制导致收入损失30亿至40亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I'm most curious to see how the iPhone does this time around, as it appears that the 5G supercycle seems to be going pretty well. This year, however, most expectations are that the smartphone will return to its usual September launch period, meaning new phone revenues would be generated in fiscal Q4 again. Last year's coronavirus delayed launch meant sales didn't start until well into October and even November for some models, completely changing the sales trajectory for Apple's current fiscal year. This year's launch isn't expected to see a major upgrade to the phone line itself, so demand trends will probably be more dependent on how many consumers are upgrading to 5G rather than switching to iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>我最好奇的是这一次iPhone的表现如何，因为5G超级周期似乎进展顺利。然而，今年，大多数人预计智能手机将回到通常的9月发布期，这意味着新手机收入将在第四财季再次产生。去年的冠状病毒推迟了上市，这意味着某些车型直到10月甚至11月才开始销售，这完全改变了苹果本财年的销售轨迹。今年的推出预计不会对电话线本身进行重大升级，因此需求趋势可能更多地取决于有多少消费者升级到5G，而不是转向iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> I'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as well as soaring commodity prices. I don't think we will see a repeat of the 575 basis point increase in product gross margins that Q2 saw this time around, but the iPhone 12 line should still provide a nice year-over-year boost. In the long run, investors will look at growing services margins helping the gross margin percentage overall, but don't forget that the services side of the business has a lot of its expenses on the operating line.</p><p><blockquote>我相信分析师也将关注苹果如何应对芯片短缺和大宗商品价格飙升的问题。我认为我们不会看到第二季度产品毛利率增长575个基点的重演，但iPhone 12系列仍然应该会带来不错的同比增长。从长远来看，投资者将关注不断增长的服务利润率，以帮助提高整体毛利率，但不要忘记，业务的服务方面在运营方面有大量费用。</blockquote></p><p> For the stock to stay elevated, management is going to need to show that work from home and stimulus money tailwinds are still ongoing. As I discussed in&nbsp;a previous article, estimates call for Apple to see quarterly revenues decline for its March 2022 fiscal period, as the company laps very high previous year bars. While that might bring out some of the bears again, the long-term trajectory still seems positive. Current estimates call for $355 billion in total revenue during this fiscal year with Apple adding another $50 billion to that total over the next three years.</p><p><blockquote>为了使股价保持高位，管理层需要证明在家工作和刺激资金的顺风仍在持续。正如我在上一篇文章中讨论的那样，看涨期权预计苹果2022年3月财年的季度收入将下降，因为该公司去年的收入水平非常高。虽然这可能会再次引发一些空头，但长期轨迹似乎仍然是积极的。目前估计看涨期权本财年的总收入为3550亿美元，苹果将在未来三年内再增加500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I hope that management took advantage of the weakness in Apple shares during the quarter for its buyback. Even though the company is spending $20 billion or so every three months, that money doesn't go as far as $145 as it does at $125, obviously. Less shares repurchased means less of an earnings per share benefit, and lower long-term dividend raises. The good news is that Apple is on its way towards $100 billion a year in free cash flow, so investors don't need to worry about capital returns slowing down anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>我希望管理层利用本季度苹果股价疲软的机会进行回购。尽管该公司每三个月花费200亿美元左右，但这笔钱显然不会像125美元那样达到145美元。回购的股票越少意味着每股收益收益越少，长期股息提高也越低。好消息是，苹果的自由现金流即将达到每年1000亿美元，因此投资者无需担心资本回报会很快放缓。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The major issue for Apple right now is valuation. Shares finished last week trading at 33.4 times their trailing twelve-month earnings. That's basically double the mid-teens numbers from a couple of years ago, helped a lot by easy-money policies around the globe. My current price target of $162 is based on a 30X multiple of $5.40 in EPS for the September 2022 period. That number, however, assumes that the Fed and other central banks will remain fairly accommodative through most of next year. If we start to get a lot of tapering and or rate hikes earlier than expected, the overall market is likely to feel some pain, and I don't see how Apple would be immune from that.</p><p><blockquote>苹果目前的主要问题是估值。上周股价是过去12个月市盈率的33.4倍。这基本上是几年前青少年人数的两倍，这在很大程度上得益于全球宽松货币政策。我目前162美元的目标价是基于2022年9月期间每股收益5.40美元的30倍。然而，这个数字是假设美联储和其他央行在明年大部分时间里将保持相当宽松的政策。如果我们比预期更早地开始大量缩减和/或加息，整个市场可能会感到一些痛苦，我看不出苹果会如何免受此影响。</blockquote></p><p> A strong report from Apple could easily help shares to rise to a new all-time high. But just to play devil's advocate for a minute, what if there is a disappointment or a \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" reaction? Well, shares are quite a bit above their key moving averages as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in orange). As long as Apple can hold the shorter-term trend line, that rising technical level should be one of support. The stock has been able to hold the long-term trend line for quite a while, so I don't see any more than about 14% downside in the near term unless we get a major market pullback.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的强劲报告很容易帮助股价升至历史新高。但只是为了唱反调一分钟，如果出现失望或“买入谣言，卖出新闻”的反应怎么办？嗯，股价远高于其关键移动平均线，如下图所示（紫色为50日，橙色为200日）。只要苹果能够守住短期趋势线，上涨的技术水平应该是支撑之一。该股已经能够在相当长一段时间内保持长期趋势线，因此我认为短期内的下跌幅度不会超过14%左右，除非市场出现重大回调。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc37ee144edb22fd36fcd15cf5fc3470\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Yahoo! Finance)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：雅虎财经）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the end, expectations for Apple are very high as earnings approach this week. Two massive quarterly beats have sent estimates through the roof, and the stock has recently run to a new all-time high. The market will be looking for signs that the iPhone supercycle has continued while work from home tailwinds have not subsided just yet. Investors hoping that this rally can continue will need to see a strong report, with management hopefully painting a bright sales picture for upcoming fall product launches.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着本周财报的临近，人们对苹果的期望非常高。两个巨大的季度业绩超出了预期，该股最近创下了历史新高。市场将寻找iPhone超级周期仍在继续的迹象，而在家工作的顺风尚未消退。希望这种涨势能够持续下去的投资者需要看到一份强劲的报告，管理层希望为即将到来的秋季产品发布描绘一幅光明的销售图景。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Earnings Face High Expectations<blockquote>苹果盈利面临高预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 23:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares go into report near all-time high.</li>  <li>Estimates surge after two massive beats.</li>  <li>Timing of product launches will shift revenue picture.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bdd5b8fd99a0523d96bf052afd8c1b37\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"988\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Nikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>股价接近历史新高。</li><li>两次大幅上涨后，预估值飙升。</li><li>产品发布的时间将改变收入状况。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Nikada/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple (AAPL) for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.</p><p><blockquote>周二盘后，我们将收到科技巨头苹果(AAPL)截至6月底的第三财季业绩。由于该公司前两个季度的收益报告超出了华尔街的预期，预期持续上升也就不足为奇了。随着最近几周股价上涨至历史新高，可能需要另一份强劲的报告来维持局面。</blockquote></p><p> For the first half of fiscal 2021, Apple's revenues have beaten street estimates by an average of $10.25 billion per quarter. The fiscal Q3&nbsp;current average estimate&nbsp;is $73.44 billion, which would represent growth of more than 23% from the year-ago period. It's quite impressive that the current average is up more than $13 billion over the past year. On the bottom line, the street is looking for $1.01, growth of more than 56%. In the table below, you can see some Q3 key financial items for the past two years, with the current estimates for this year's period in yellow. Dollar values are millions except per share amounts.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年上半年，苹果的收入平均每季度超出华尔街预期102.5亿美元。第三财季目前的平均预期为734.4亿美元，比去年同期增长23%以上。令人印象深刻的是，目前的平均水平在过去一年中增长了超过130亿美元。从底线来看，华尔街的目标是1.01美元，增长超过56%。在下表中，您可以看到过去两年第三季度的一些关键财务项目，今年同期的当前估计为黄色。除每股金额外，美元价值为数百万。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df8630a7ef0be70113aeac0d50265a57\" tg-width=\"476\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(*Numbers estimated based on last year's split. Actual numbers to come from the company. Source: Fiscal Q3 2020 report)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（*根据去年的拆分估算的数字。实际数字来自公司。资料来源：2020财年第三季度报告）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Apple is comingoff arguably&nbsp;its best quarter ever. Revenues for the iPhone were up more than 65.5% over the prior-year period, with the Mac up more than 70% and iPad up nearly 79%. Fiscal Q2 overall revenue growth was nearly 54%, so this time around we're looking for about 40% of that figure. Don't forget, on the&nbsp;Q2 conference call, management talked about a $3 billion to $4 billion revenue hit in the June period from supply constraints.</p><p><blockquote>苹果可以说是有史以来最好的季度。iPhone的收入同比增长超过65.5%，Mac增长超过70%，iPad增长近79%。第二财季整体收入增长近54%，因此这次我们预计这一数字的40%左右。别忘了，在第二季度电话会议上，管理层谈到6月份期间供应限制导致收入损失30亿至40亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I'm most curious to see how the iPhone does this time around, as it appears that the 5G supercycle seems to be going pretty well. This year, however, most expectations are that the smartphone will return to its usual September launch period, meaning new phone revenues would be generated in fiscal Q4 again. Last year's coronavirus delayed launch meant sales didn't start until well into October and even November for some models, completely changing the sales trajectory for Apple's current fiscal year. This year's launch isn't expected to see a major upgrade to the phone line itself, so demand trends will probably be more dependent on how many consumers are upgrading to 5G rather than switching to iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>我最好奇的是这一次iPhone的表现如何，因为5G超级周期似乎进展顺利。然而，今年，大多数人预计智能手机将回到通常的9月发布期，这意味着新手机收入将在第四财季再次产生。去年的冠状病毒推迟了上市，这意味着某些车型直到10月甚至11月才开始销售，这完全改变了苹果本财年的销售轨迹。今年的推出预计不会对电话线本身进行重大升级，因此需求趋势可能更多地取决于有多少消费者升级到5G，而不是转向iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> I'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as well as soaring commodity prices. I don't think we will see a repeat of the 575 basis point increase in product gross margins that Q2 saw this time around, but the iPhone 12 line should still provide a nice year-over-year boost. In the long run, investors will look at growing services margins helping the gross margin percentage overall, but don't forget that the services side of the business has a lot of its expenses on the operating line.</p><p><blockquote>我相信分析师也将关注苹果如何应对芯片短缺和大宗商品价格飙升的问题。我认为我们不会看到第二季度产品毛利率增长575个基点的重演，但iPhone 12系列仍然应该会带来不错的同比增长。从长远来看，投资者将关注不断增长的服务利润率，以帮助提高整体毛利率，但不要忘记，业务的服务方面在运营方面有大量费用。</blockquote></p><p> For the stock to stay elevated, management is going to need to show that work from home and stimulus money tailwinds are still ongoing. As I discussed in&nbsp;a previous article, estimates call for Apple to see quarterly revenues decline for its March 2022 fiscal period, as the company laps very high previous year bars. While that might bring out some of the bears again, the long-term trajectory still seems positive. Current estimates call for $355 billion in total revenue during this fiscal year with Apple adding another $50 billion to that total over the next three years.</p><p><blockquote>为了使股价保持高位，管理层需要证明在家工作和刺激资金的顺风仍在持续。正如我在上一篇文章中讨论的那样，看涨期权预计苹果2022年3月财年的季度收入将下降，因为该公司去年的收入水平非常高。虽然这可能会再次引发一些空头，但长期轨迹似乎仍然是积极的。目前估计看涨期权本财年的总收入为3550亿美元，苹果将在未来三年内再增加500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> I hope that management took advantage of the weakness in Apple shares during the quarter for its buyback. Even though the company is spending $20 billion or so every three months, that money doesn't go as far as $145 as it does at $125, obviously. Less shares repurchased means less of an earnings per share benefit, and lower long-term dividend raises. The good news is that Apple is on its way towards $100 billion a year in free cash flow, so investors don't need to worry about capital returns slowing down anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>我希望管理层利用本季度苹果股价疲软的机会进行回购。尽管该公司每三个月花费200亿美元左右，但这笔钱显然不会像125美元那样达到145美元。回购的股票越少意味着每股收益收益越少，长期股息提高也越低。好消息是，苹果的自由现金流即将达到每年1000亿美元，因此投资者无需担心资本回报会很快放缓。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The major issue for Apple right now is valuation. Shares finished last week trading at 33.4 times their trailing twelve-month earnings. That's basically double the mid-teens numbers from a couple of years ago, helped a lot by easy-money policies around the globe. My current price target of $162 is based on a 30X multiple of $5.40 in EPS for the September 2022 period. That number, however, assumes that the Fed and other central banks will remain fairly accommodative through most of next year. If we start to get a lot of tapering and or rate hikes earlier than expected, the overall market is likely to feel some pain, and I don't see how Apple would be immune from that.</p><p><blockquote>苹果目前的主要问题是估值。上周股价是过去12个月市盈率的33.4倍。这基本上是几年前青少年人数的两倍，这在很大程度上得益于全球宽松货币政策。我目前162美元的目标价是基于2022年9月期间每股收益5.40美元的30倍。然而，这个数字是假设美联储和其他央行在明年大部分时间里将保持相当宽松的政策。如果我们比预期更早地开始大量缩减和/或加息，整个市场可能会感到一些痛苦，我看不出苹果会如何免受此影响。</blockquote></p><p> A strong report from Apple could easily help shares to rise to a new all-time high. But just to play devil's advocate for a minute, what if there is a disappointment or a \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" reaction? Well, shares are quite a bit above their key moving averages as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in orange). As long as Apple can hold the shorter-term trend line, that rising technical level should be one of support. The stock has been able to hold the long-term trend line for quite a while, so I don't see any more than about 14% downside in the near term unless we get a major market pullback.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的强劲报告很容易帮助股价升至历史新高。但只是为了唱反调一分钟，如果出现失望或“买入谣言，卖出新闻”的反应怎么办？嗯，股价远高于其关键移动平均线，如下图所示（紫色为50日，橙色为200日）。只要苹果能够守住短期趋势线，上涨的技术水平应该是支撑之一。该股已经能够在相当长一段时间内保持长期趋势线，因此我认为短期内的下跌幅度不会超过14%左右，除非市场出现重大回调。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc37ee144edb22fd36fcd15cf5fc3470\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"273\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Yahoo! Finance)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：雅虎财经）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the end, expectations for Apple are very high as earnings approach this week. Two massive quarterly beats have sent estimates through the roof, and the stock has recently run to a new all-time high. The market will be looking for signs that the iPhone supercycle has continued while work from home tailwinds have not subsided just yet. Investors hoping that this rally can continue will need to see a strong report, with management hopefully painting a bright sales picture for upcoming fall product launches.</p><p><blockquote>最后，随着本周财报的临近，人们对苹果的期望非常高。两个巨大的季度业绩超出了预期，该股最近创下了历史新高。市场将寻找iPhone超级周期仍在继续的迹象，而在家工作的顺风尚未消退。希望这种涨势能够持续下去的投资者需要看到一份强劲的报告，管理层希望为即将到来的秋季产品发布描绘一幅光明的销售图景。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441375-apple-earnings-face-high-expectations\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441375-apple-earnings-face-high-expectations","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100647798","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares go into report near all-time high.\nEstimates surge after two massive beats.\nTiming of product launches will shift revenue picture.\n\nNikada/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nAfter the bell on Tuesday, we'll receive fiscal third quarter results from technology giant Apple (AAPL) for its June ending period. With the company's previous two quarterly earnings reports smashing street estimates, it's not really a surprise that expectations have continued to rise. With shares rallying in recent weeks to new all-time highs, another strong report will likely be needed to keep things going.\nFor the first half of fiscal 2021, Apple's revenues have beaten street estimates by an average of $10.25 billion per quarter. The fiscal Q3 current average estimate is $73.44 billion, which would represent growth of more than 23% from the year-ago period. It's quite impressive that the current average is up more than $13 billion over the past year. On the bottom line, the street is looking for $1.01, growth of more than 56%. In the table below, you can see some Q3 key financial items for the past two years, with the current estimates for this year's period in yellow. Dollar values are millions except per share amounts.\n(*Numbers estimated based on last year's split. Actual numbers to come from the company. Source: Fiscal Q3 2020 report)\nApple is comingoff arguably its best quarter ever. Revenues for the iPhone were up more than 65.5% over the prior-year period, with the Mac up more than 70% and iPad up nearly 79%. Fiscal Q2 overall revenue growth was nearly 54%, so this time around we're looking for about 40% of that figure. Don't forget, on the Q2 conference call, management talked about a $3 billion to $4 billion revenue hit in the June period from supply constraints.\nI'm most curious to see how the iPhone does this time around, as it appears that the 5G supercycle seems to be going pretty well. This year, however, most expectations are that the smartphone will return to its usual September launch period, meaning new phone revenues would be generated in fiscal Q4 again. Last year's coronavirus delayed launch meant sales didn't start until well into October and even November for some models, completely changing the sales trajectory for Apple's current fiscal year. This year's launch isn't expected to see a major upgrade to the phone line itself, so demand trends will probably be more dependent on how many consumers are upgrading to 5G rather than switching to iPhones.\nI'm sure analysts will also be looking to see how Apple has navigated the chip shortage as well as soaring commodity prices. I don't think we will see a repeat of the 575 basis point increase in product gross margins that Q2 saw this time around, but the iPhone 12 line should still provide a nice year-over-year boost. In the long run, investors will look at growing services margins helping the gross margin percentage overall, but don't forget that the services side of the business has a lot of its expenses on the operating line.\nFor the stock to stay elevated, management is going to need to show that work from home and stimulus money tailwinds are still ongoing. As I discussed in a previous article, estimates call for Apple to see quarterly revenues decline for its March 2022 fiscal period, as the company laps very high previous year bars. While that might bring out some of the bears again, the long-term trajectory still seems positive. Current estimates call for $355 billion in total revenue during this fiscal year with Apple adding another $50 billion to that total over the next three years.\nI hope that management took advantage of the weakness in Apple shares during the quarter for its buyback. Even though the company is spending $20 billion or so every three months, that money doesn't go as far as $145 as it does at $125, obviously. Less shares repurchased means less of an earnings per share benefit, and lower long-term dividend raises. The good news is that Apple is on its way towards $100 billion a year in free cash flow, so investors don't need to worry about capital returns slowing down anytime soon.\nThe major issue for Apple right now is valuation. Shares finished last week trading at 33.4 times their trailing twelve-month earnings. That's basically double the mid-teens numbers from a couple of years ago, helped a lot by easy-money policies around the globe. My current price target of $162 is based on a 30X multiple of $5.40 in EPS for the September 2022 period. That number, however, assumes that the Fed and other central banks will remain fairly accommodative through most of next year. If we start to get a lot of tapering and or rate hikes earlier than expected, the overall market is likely to feel some pain, and I don't see how Apple would be immune from that.\nA strong report from Apple could easily help shares to rise to a new all-time high. But just to play devil's advocate for a minute, what if there is a disappointment or a \"buy the rumor, sell the news\" reaction? Well, shares are quite a bit above their key moving averages as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in orange). As long as Apple can hold the shorter-term trend line, that rising technical level should be one of support. The stock has been able to hold the long-term trend line for quite a while, so I don't see any more than about 14% downside in the near term unless we get a major market pullback.\n(Source: Yahoo! Finance)\nIn the end, expectations for Apple are very high as earnings approach this week. Two massive quarterly beats have sent estimates through the roof, and the stock has recently run to a new all-time high. The market will be looking for signs that the iPhone supercycle has continued while work from home tailwinds have not subsided just yet. Investors hoping that this rally can continue will need to see a strong report, with management hopefully painting a bright sales picture for upcoming fall product launches.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":883626869,"gmtCreate":1631238955251,"gmtModify":1631889065878,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted. Thank you","listText":"Noted. Thank you","text":"Noted. Thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883626869","repostId":"1119421769","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147985817,"gmtCreate":1626327647439,"gmtModify":1631889065914,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"谢谢提供信息，让我们分享。我买股票因为除了可以赚钱，还希望有股息分。耐心等待","listText":"谢谢提供信息，让我们分享。我买股票因为除了可以赚钱，还希望有股息分。耐心等待","text":"谢谢提供信息，让我们分享。我买股票因为除了可以赚钱，还希望有股息分。耐心等待","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147985817","repostId":"2151751740","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605121702,"gmtCreate":1639132145759,"gmtModify":1639132244475,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605121702","repostId":"1160479644","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":148272028,"gmtCreate":1625983466764,"gmtModify":1631889065935,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"事事难料，见好就收。","listText":"事事难料，见好就收。","text":"事事难料，见好就收。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148272028","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185154176?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济蓬勃发展，盈利上升，美联储给予前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经大幅上涨17%，确实可能会出现回调。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于这六个原因，我们仍处于股市三到五年牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.有巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。总而言之，巨大的被压抑的私营部门需求将有助于推动美国今年的GDP增长达到8%，并在此后几年达到3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold Group首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释家庭需求的大幅上升。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未用完的储蓄，因为他们为疫情做好了准备。个人储蓄率接近GDP的16%，而战后的平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表显著改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。消费者将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量，因为就业和经济保持强劲，他们的信心增强。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会提高，这必然会促进经济增长。劳动参与率还有提高的空间，在我们达到可能限制经济增长的充分就业之前，留下了闲置的就业能力。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看企业被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听说的所有短缺的东西吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的疫情，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清理。但现在，企业不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司也削减了产能，并再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近23%。这创造了持续的增长，它告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>：我们今年将看到7%-8%的GDP增长，明年将达到4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平的增长，支持股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得如此之快，分析师们跟不上。分析师预计标普500今年的每股收益为190美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激通常需要六到八个月才能生效，最近的很多刺激都发生在这个窗口内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计，2021年标普500的盈利将更接近220美元，而不是普遍预期的190美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“分析师仍然低估了利润的改善程度以及将会改善多少。”“我们从政策官员那里得到了戏剧性的过度反应。他们解决了崩溃的问题，但在基本面上创造了巨大的改善。这在利润复苏方面仍在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.城里有一个新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通胀。在此过程中，央行扼杀了经济增长。这就是过去20年是战后经济增长最慢的原因之一。然而现在，美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的衡量标准来衡量这一点。以GDP增长减去10年期国债收益率MUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在1980年至2010年的大部分时间里都为负值，当时美联储保持增长降温以遏制通胀。但现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将10年期国债收益率保持在远低于GDP增长的水平，从而使经济过热。这就是1950-1965年的情况，一些分析家将其看涨期权为“资本主义的黄金时代”，因为增长的下滑路径。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀不会杀死公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通胀短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。这是一个综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。企业资本支出的繁荣将继续提高企业的生产率。这使他们能够避免将上升的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地制造商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹的阶段，通常会出现以下动态。股市连续几个月横盘整理，主要是因为对通胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，压低了股票估值。在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中，这种动态大约在这一点上发挥了作用。简而言之，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升，而股市则标志着时间的到来，甚至是回调。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将降低股票估值，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在年底达到220美元，并且该指数因回调而达到4,000至4,100点，那么股票的市盈率将达到18-19倍，低于1990年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA+1.30%和罗素2000小盘股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们重新进入横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一名逆向投资者，我将过度情绪视为是时候筹集一些现金的迹象。我们还没有看到这一点。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说从4点开始。另一方面，共同基金现金最近为4.6万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来持续的经济复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性股票。</b>继续投资对经济敏感的企业，并在回调时增持这些企业。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果您想要收益，请选择支付股息但具有资本增值潜力的股票，而不是销售消费品等稳定增长的公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信Brush Up on Stocks（链接在下面的简介中）中，我最近建议或重申了零售业的家得宝、市场和投资银行名称B.Riley Financial以及消费者金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长率往往更高。小心中国。它的人口正在老龄化。劳动力增长有限可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的美中紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁导致全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济蓬勃发展，盈利上升，美联储给予前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经大幅上涨17%，确实可能会出现回调。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于这六个原因，我们仍处于股市三到五年牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.有巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。总而言之，巨大的被压抑的私营部门需求将有助于推动美国今年的GDP增长达到8%，并在此后几年达到3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold Group首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释家庭需求的大幅上升。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未用完的储蓄，因为他们为疫情做好了准备。个人储蓄率接近GDP的16%，而战后的平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表显著改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。消费者将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量，因为就业和经济保持强劲，他们的信心增强。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会提高，这必然会促进经济增长。劳动参与率还有提高的空间，在我们达到可能限制经济增长的充分就业之前，留下了闲置的就业能力。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看企业被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听说的所有短缺的东西吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的疫情，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清理。但现在，企业不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司也削减了产能，并再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近23%。这创造了持续的增长，它告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>：我们今年将看到7%-8%的GDP增长，明年将达到4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平的增长，支持股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得如此之快，分析师们跟不上。分析师预计标普500今年的每股收益为190美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激通常需要六到八个月才能生效，最近的很多刺激都发生在这个窗口内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计，2021年标普500的盈利将更接近220美元，而不是普遍预期的190美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“分析师仍然低估了利润的改善程度以及将会改善多少。”“我们从政策官员那里得到了戏剧性的过度反应。他们解决了崩溃的问题，但在基本面上创造了巨大的改善。这在利润复苏方面仍在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.城里有一个新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通胀。在此过程中，央行扼杀了经济增长。这就是过去20年是战后经济增长最慢的原因之一。然而现在，美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的衡量标准来衡量这一点。以GDP增长减去10年期国债收益率MUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在1980年至2010年的大部分时间里都为负值，当时美联储保持增长降温以遏制通胀。但现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将10年期国债收益率保持在远低于GDP增长的水平，从而使经济过热。这就是1950-1965年的情况，一些分析家将其看涨期权为“资本主义的黄金时代”，因为增长的下滑路径。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀不会杀死公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通胀短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。这是一个综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。企业资本支出的繁荣将继续提高企业的生产率。这使他们能够避免将上升的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地制造商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹的阶段，通常会出现以下动态。股市连续几个月横盘整理，主要是因为对通胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，压低了股票估值。在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中，这种动态大约在这一点上发挥了作用。简而言之，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升，而股市则标志着时间的到来，甚至是回调。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将降低股票估值，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在年底达到220美元，并且该指数因回调而达到4,000至4,100点，那么股票的市盈率将达到18-19倍，低于1990年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA+1.30%和罗素2000小盘股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们重新进入横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一名逆向投资者，我将过度情绪视为是时候筹集一些现金的迹象。我们还没有看到这一点。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说从4点开始。另一方面，共同基金现金最近为4.6万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来持续的经济复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性股票。</b>继续投资对经济敏感的企业，并在回调时增持这些企业。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果您想要收益，请选择支付股息但具有资本增值潜力的股票，而不是销售消费品等稳定增长的公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信Brush Up on Stocks（链接在下面的简介中）中，我最近建议或重申了零售业的家得宝、市场和投资银行名称B.Riley Financial以及消费者金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长率往往更高。小心中国。它的人口正在老龄化。劳动力增长有限可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的美中紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁导致全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":141058412,"gmtCreate":1625827119836,"gmtModify":1633936947150,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141058412","repostId":"1181179663","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181179663","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625822664,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181179663?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 17:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Oil prices firm as U.S. inventories decline<blockquote>美国库存下降油价坚挺</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181179663","media":"Reuters","summary":"LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second day on Friday as data showed a draw in U.S. inventor","content":"<p>LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second day on Friday as data showed a draw in U.S. inventories, but were heading for a weekly loss amid uncertainty over global supplies after an OPEC+ impasse.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦（路透社）-由于数据显示美国库存减少，油价周五连续第二天上涨，但由于欧佩克+僵局后全球供应的不确定性，油价将出现每周下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Brent crude oil futures were up 60 cents, or 0.8%, at $74.72 a barrel by 0845 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 69 cents, or 1%, at $73.63.</p><p><blockquote>截至格林威治标准时间0845，布伦特原油期货上涨60美分，或0.8%，至每桶74.72美元。美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货上涨69美分，涨幅1%，报73.63美元。</blockquote></p><p> Prices on both sides of the Atlantic were on track for a weekly loss of nearly 2%, dragged down by the collapse of output talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+.</p><p><blockquote>受石油输出国组织（OPEC）与包括俄罗斯在内的盟友（统称为OPEC+）之间的产量谈判破裂拖累，大西洋两岸的价格有望每周下跌近2%。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell and gasoline demand reached its highest since 2019, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, signalling increasing strength in the economy.</p><p><blockquote>美国能源情报署周四表示，美国原油和汽油库存下降，汽油需求达到2019年以来的最高水平，表明经济实力增强。</blockquote></p><p> “A bullish EIA stock report helped the oil market rebound into the black,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.</p><p><blockquote>石油经纪商PVM的Stephen Brennock表示：“看涨的EIA股票报告帮助石油市场反弹盈利。”</blockquote></p><p> “Clearly, U.S. oil markets are tight. However ... the only way to prevent further losses is for the threat of an OPEC+ price war to be contained,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“显然，美国石油市场紧张。然而……防止进一步损失的唯一方法是遏制OPEC+价格战的威胁，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Gains in oil prices were capped by worries that members of the OPEC+ group could be tempted to abandon output limits that they have followed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with talks breaking down because of an impasse between major producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心OPEC+集团成员国可能会试图放弃他们在COVID-19大流行期间遵循的产量限制，主要产油国沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国之间的僵局导致谈判破裂，油价涨幅受到限制。</blockquote></p><p> The two Gulf OPEC allies are at odds over a proposed deal that would have brought more oil to the market.</p><p><blockquote>这两个海湾石油输出国组织盟友在一项将向市场带来更多石油的拟议协议上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> Russia was trying to mediate in an effort to strike a deal to raise output, OPEC+ sources said on Wednesday. The United States had high level conversations with officials in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the White House said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>OPEC+消息人士周三表示，俄罗斯正试图进行调解，以达成增产协议。白宫周二表示，美国与沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的官员进行了高层对话。</blockquote></p><p> The global spread of the Delta coronavirus variant and worries it could stall a worldwide economic recovery also weighed on oil prices.</p><p><blockquote>德尔塔新冠病毒变异毒株的全球蔓延以及对其可能阻碍全球经济复苏的担忧也打压了油价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil prices firm as U.S. inventories decline<blockquote>美国库存下降油价坚挺</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil prices firm as U.S. inventories decline<blockquote>美国库存下降油价坚挺</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-09 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second day on Friday as data showed a draw in U.S. inventories, but were heading for a weekly loss amid uncertainty over global supplies after an OPEC+ impasse.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦（路透社）-由于数据显示美国库存减少，油价周五连续第二天上涨，但由于欧佩克+僵局后全球供应的不确定性，油价将出现每周下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Brent crude oil futures were up 60 cents, or 0.8%, at $74.72 a barrel by 0845 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 69 cents, or 1%, at $73.63.</p><p><blockquote>截至格林威治标准时间0845，布伦特原油期货上涨60美分，或0.8%，至每桶74.72美元。美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货上涨69美分，涨幅1%，报73.63美元。</blockquote></p><p> Prices on both sides of the Atlantic were on track for a weekly loss of nearly 2%, dragged down by the collapse of output talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+.</p><p><blockquote>受石油输出国组织（OPEC）与包括俄罗斯在内的盟友（统称为OPEC+）之间的产量谈判破裂拖累，大西洋两岸的价格有望每周下跌近2%。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell and gasoline demand reached its highest since 2019, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, signalling increasing strength in the economy.</p><p><blockquote>美国能源情报署周四表示，美国原油和汽油库存下降，汽油需求达到2019年以来的最高水平，表明经济实力增强。</blockquote></p><p> “A bullish EIA stock report helped the oil market rebound into the black,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.</p><p><blockquote>石油经纪商PVM的Stephen Brennock表示：“看涨的EIA股票报告帮助石油市场反弹盈利。”</blockquote></p><p> “Clearly, U.S. oil markets are tight. However ... the only way to prevent further losses is for the threat of an OPEC+ price war to be contained,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“显然，美国石油市场紧张。然而……防止进一步损失的唯一方法是遏制OPEC+价格战的威胁，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Gains in oil prices were capped by worries that members of the OPEC+ group could be tempted to abandon output limits that they have followed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with talks breaking down because of an impasse between major producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心OPEC+集团成员国可能会试图放弃他们在COVID-19大流行期间遵循的产量限制，主要产油国沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国之间的僵局导致谈判破裂，油价涨幅受到限制。</blockquote></p><p> The two Gulf OPEC allies are at odds over a proposed deal that would have brought more oil to the market.</p><p><blockquote>这两个海湾石油输出国组织盟友在一项将向市场带来更多石油的拟议协议上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> Russia was trying to mediate in an effort to strike a deal to raise output, OPEC+ sources said on Wednesday. The United States had high level conversations with officials in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the White House said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>OPEC+消息人士周三表示，俄罗斯正试图进行调解，以达成增产协议。白宫周二表示，美国与沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的官员进行了高层对话。</blockquote></p><p> The global spread of the Delta coronavirus variant and worries it could stall a worldwide economic recovery also weighed on oil prices.</p><p><blockquote>德尔塔新冠病毒变异毒株的全球蔓延以及对其可能阻碍全球经济复苏的担忧也打压了油价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil/update-3-oil-prices-firm-as-u-s-inventories-decline-idUSL2N2OL07F\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XOM":"埃克森美孚"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil/update-3-oil-prices-firm-as-u-s-inventories-decline-idUSL2N2OL07F","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181179663","content_text":"LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second day on Friday as data showed a draw in U.S. inventories, but were heading for a weekly loss amid uncertainty over global supplies after an OPEC+ impasse.\nBrent crude oil futures were up 60 cents, or 0.8%, at $74.72 a barrel by 0845 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 69 cents, or 1%, at $73.63.\nPrices on both sides of the Atlantic were on track for a weekly loss of nearly 2%, dragged down by the collapse of output talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+.\nU.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell and gasoline demand reached its highest since 2019, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, signalling increasing strength in the economy.\n“A bullish EIA stock report helped the oil market rebound into the black,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.\n“Clearly, U.S. oil markets are tight. However ... the only way to prevent further losses is for the threat of an OPEC+ price war to be contained,” he added.\nGains in oil prices were capped by worries that members of the OPEC+ group could be tempted to abandon output limits that they have followed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with talks breaking down because of an impasse between major producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.\nThe two Gulf OPEC allies are at odds over a proposed deal that would have brought more oil to the market.\nRussia was trying to mediate in an effort to strike a deal to raise output, OPEC+ sources said on Wednesday. The United States had high level conversations with officials in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the White House said on Tuesday.\nThe global spread of the Delta coronavirus variant and worries it could stall a worldwide economic recovery also weighed on oil prices.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"XOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145347339,"gmtCreate":1626192132921,"gmtModify":1631889065935,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最期待IPO了， 幸运的话，会让你赚一笔💰","listText":"最期待IPO了， 幸运的话，会让你赚一笔💰","text":"最期待IPO了， 幸运的话，会让你赚一笔💰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145347339","repostId":"2151156669","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2634,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":141053683,"gmtCreate":1625826912642,"gmtModify":1633936949037,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141053683","repostId":"1113072261","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113072261","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625823554,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113072261?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 17:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop Short Seller Melvin Capital Ended 2021 First-Half With 46% Loss: Report<blockquote>游戏驿站卖空者Melvin Capital 2021年上半年亏损46%：报告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113072261","media":"Benzinga","summary":"GameStop Corp. short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of","content":"<p><div> GameStop Corp. short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of 46%, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. What Happened:Founded in ...</p><p><blockquote><div>彭博社周四援引知情人士的话报道称，游戏驿站公司卖空者Melvin Capital Management LP 2021年上半年亏损46%。发生了什么：成立于...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop Short Seller Melvin Capital Ended 2021 First-Half With 46% Loss: Report<blockquote>游戏驿站卖空者Melvin Capital 2021年上半年亏损46%：报告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop Short Seller Melvin Capital Ended 2021 First-Half With 46% Loss: Report<blockquote>游戏驿站卖空者Melvin Capital 2021年上半年亏损46%：报告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-09 17:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> GameStop Corp. short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of 46%, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter. What Happened:Founded in ...</p><p><blockquote><div>彭博社周四援引知情人士的话报道称，游戏驿站公司卖空者Melvin Capital Management LP 2021年上半年亏损46%。发生了什么：成立于...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/07/21909875/gamestop-short-seller-melvin-capital-ended-2021-first-half-with-46-loss-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113072261","content_text":"GameStop Corp. short seller Melvin Capital Management LP ended the first half of 2021 with a loss of 46%, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.\nWhat Happened:Founded in 2014 by Gabe Plotkin, a former portfolio manager for Steve Cohen, Melvin Capital was at the heart of the GameStop saga earlier this year.\nThe hedge fund, which managed $11 billion in assets as of June 1, is taking smaller-sized positions to limit exposure to single companies, as per the report.\nPlotkin has reportedly instructed his team of data scientists to watch social media and message boards to look for shares that are seeing high support from retail investors.\nWhy It Matters:Melvin Capital’s first-half results indicate the hedge fund is struggling to rebound from thelossesit incurred from betting against GameStop and other stonks - stocks popular with retail investors.\nMelvin Capital said in May it has closed out of all its public bearish positions in the first quarter. This included its listed put options in GameStop.\nIt was reported in June that London-based White Square Capital is shutting down after suffering huge losses during the retail trading frenzy earlier in the year. This marked one of the first hedge fund closures following the surge in shares of stonks.\nIn early June,AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. and GameStop short-seller losses swelled up to$12 billionon a year-to-date basis. Both the stocks continue to seehigh interestfrom retail investors.\nPrice Action: AMC Entertainment shares closed almost 6.4% higher in Thursday’s regular trading session at $47.94, while GameStop shares closed almost 0.4% higher at $191.38.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152775995,"gmtCreate":1625361310317,"gmtModify":1633941328331,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"先观望再准备进场","listText":"先观望再准备进场","text":"先观望再准备进场","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152775995","repostId":"1122056398","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122056398","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625280707,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122056398?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122056398","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good b","content":"<p>  <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>  June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>“短期反转策略”通常在7月份表现特别好。</b>6月份表现最差的股票是7月份跑赢美国市场的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为6月底的投资组合装饰将使当月表现不佳的股票比其他情况下下跌得更远。一旦这种人为的抛售压力消失，这些股票很可能会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，装点门面在整个日历中的几个场合都是一股强大的力量，不仅仅是在一年中的这个时候。它应该在12月底产生最大的影响，因为1月初查看其投资组合持股的投资者比一年中任何其他月份都多。因此，基金经理会特意在12月31日之前出售亏损股票，以避免不得不报告他们曾经拥有过这些股票的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p><p><blockquote>经理们为了装饰门面而购买的股票的情况恰恰相反。这些股票已经表现良好，经理们希望在季末持股报告中展示这些股票。他们购买化妆品将导致这些股票表现更好——这反过来又会导致它们在新季度到来时回落。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，一月份是上个月表现最差的公司相对于上个月表现最好的公司表现最好的月份——这种模式被称为“短期逆转效应”。下图说明了这一点，它反映了1926年以来的月度数据。七月是这种模式第二强的月份。这也是有道理的，因为继一月之后，七月是投资者通读经纪报表的下一个最常见的时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p><p><blockquote>同样正如预期的那样，在第一季度和第三季度末，季度末的门面装饰不再是一个因素。事实上，正如你从图表中看到的，短期反转效应在4月份甚至不如非季末月份占优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7月短线反转怎么玩</b></blockquote></p><p> As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，交易所交易基金的创建是为了利用短期反转效应。Vesper美国大盘股短期反转策略ETFUTRN“寻求利用近期经历大幅抛售的股票近期反弹的趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p><p><blockquote>由于该基金是最近才在2018年9月创建的，该ETF此后的平均月回报率仅暗示了长期模式。但其7月份的平均回报率（4.1%）好于其他任何月份。</blockquote></p><p> For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何对6月份表现最差的个股感兴趣的人，我构建了以下列表。我从标准普尔1500指数中6月份回报最差的50只股票开始，然后剔除了我的时事通讯表现跟踪服务监控的任何表现最好的时事通讯目前不推荐的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p><p><blockquote>下面列出的15只股票在这一筛选过程中幸存下来。我注意到，平均而言，这15只股票在6月份下跌了15.4%，而标准普尔500SPX指数则上涨了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>  <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>  <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>  <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>  <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>  <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>  <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>  <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>  <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>  <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>  <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>  <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>  <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>  <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>  <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li> </ul> I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Adient PLC ADNT</li><li>阿拉斯加航空集团ALK</li><li>联盟数据系统广告</li><li>美国汽车市场CRMT</li><li>ArcBest ArcB</li><li>固特异轮胎橡胶GT</li><li>KB主页KBH</li><li>LCI工业LCII</li><li>马赛克公司MOS</li><li>快验快</li><li>纽蒙特公司NEM</li><li>欧加农公司OGN</li><li>帕特里克工业PATK</li><li>地区金融射频</li><li>军刀</li></ul>我还注意到，这些股票的平均市净率为3.3，远低于标普500 4.7的比率。低于平均水平的市净率是价值股的标志，价值股会受到短期反转策略的青睐是有道理的。这是因为价值股在6月份的表现明显落后于成长股——但它们的命运可能很快就会改变。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 15 stocks -- June's biggest losers -- could become July's winners<blockquote>这15只股票——6月份跌幅最大的股票——可能成为7月份的赢家</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.</b>  June’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>“短期反转策略”通常在7月份表现特别好。</b>6月份表现最差的股票是7月份跑赢美国市场的好机会。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为6月底的投资组合装饰将使当月表现不佳的股票比其他情况下下跌得更远。一旦这种人为的抛售压力消失，这些股票很可能会反弹。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，装点门面在整个日历中的几个场合都是一股强大的力量，不仅仅是在一年中的这个时候。它应该在12月底产生最大的影响，因为1月初查看其投资组合持股的投资者比一年中任何其他月份都多。因此，基金经理会特意在12月31日之前出售亏损股票，以避免不得不报告他们曾经拥有过这些股票的尴尬。</blockquote></p><p> Just the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.</p><p><blockquote>经理们为了装饰门面而购买的股票的情况恰恰相反。这些股票已经表现良好，经理们希望在季末持股报告中展示这些股票。他们购买化妆品将导致这些股票表现更好——这反过来又会导致它们在新季度到来时回落。</blockquote></p><p> As expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.</p><p><blockquote>正如预期的那样，一月份是上个月表现最差的公司相对于上个月表现最好的公司表现最好的月份——这种模式被称为“短期逆转效应”。下图说明了这一点，它反映了1926年以来的月度数据。七月是这种模式第二强的月份。这也是有道理的，因为继一月之后，七月是投资者通读经纪报表的下一个最常见的时间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ac3a509127efd603df1d98de04774e7\" tg-width=\"620\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Also as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.</p><p><blockquote>同样正如预期的那样，在第一季度和第三季度末，季度末的门面装饰不再是一个因素。事实上，正如你从图表中看到的，短期反转效应在4月份甚至不如非季末月份占优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How to play the short-term reversal in July</b></p><p><blockquote><b>7月短线反转怎么玩</b></blockquote></p><p> As is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”</p><p><blockquote>通常情况下，交易所交易基金的创建是为了利用短期反转效应。Vesper美国大盘股短期反转策略ETFUTRN“寻求利用近期经历大幅抛售的股票近期反弹的趋势。”</blockquote></p><p> Because the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.</p><p><blockquote>由于该基金是最近才在2018年9月创建的，该ETF此后的平均月回报率仅暗示了长期模式。但其7月份的平均回报率（4.1%）好于其他任何月份。</blockquote></p><p> For anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&amp;P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.</p><p><blockquote>对于任何对6月份表现最差的个股感兴趣的人，我构建了以下列表。我从标准普尔1500指数中6月份回报最差的50只股票开始，然后剔除了我的时事通讯表现跟踪服务监控的任何表现最好的时事通讯目前不推荐的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&amp;P 500SPX.</p><p><blockquote>下面列出的15只股票在这一筛选过程中幸存下来。我注意到，平均而言，这15只股票在6月份下跌了15.4%，而标准普尔500SPX指数则上涨了2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Adient PLC&nbsp;ADNT</li>  <li>Alaska Air Group&nbsp;ALK</li>  <li>Alliance Data Systems&nbsp;ADS</li>  <li>America’s Car Mart&nbsp;CRMT</li>  <li>ArcBest&nbsp;ARCB</li>  <li>Goodyear Tire &amp; Rubber&nbsp;GT</li>  <li>KB Home&nbsp;KBH</li>  <li>LCI Industries&nbsp;LCII</li>  <li>Mosaic &amp; Co&nbsp;.MOS</li>  <li>Medifast&nbsp;MED</li>  <li>Newmont Corp.&nbsp;NEM</li>  <li>Organon &amp; Co.&nbsp;OGN</li>  <li>Patrick Industries&nbsp;PATK</li>  <li>Regions Financial&nbsp;RF</li>  <li>Sabre&nbsp;SABR</li> </ul> I also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&amp;P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon change.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Adient PLC ADNT</li><li>阿拉斯加航空集团ALK</li><li>联盟数据系统广告</li><li>美国汽车市场CRMT</li><li>ArcBest ArcB</li><li>固特异轮胎橡胶GT</li><li>KB主页KBH</li><li>LCI工业LCII</li><li>马赛克公司MOS</li><li>快验快</li><li>纽蒙特公司NEM</li><li>欧加农公司OGN</li><li>帕特里克工业PATK</li><li>地区金融射频</li><li>军刀</li></ul>我还注意到，这些股票的平均市净率为3.3，远低于标普500 4.7的比率。低于平均水平的市净率是价值股的标志，价值股会受到短期反转策略的青睐是有道理的。这是因为价值股在6月份的表现明显落后于成长股——但它们的命运可能很快就会改变。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ARCB":"ArcBest Corporation","RF":"地区金融","GT":"固特异轮胎橡胶公司","CRMT":"美国汽车行","ALK":"阿拉斯加航空集团有限公司","ADNT":"Adient PLC","KBH":"KB Home","PATK":"Patrick Industries","OGN":"Organon & Co","MOS":"美国美盛","MED":"快验保","NEM":"纽曼矿业","LCII":"LCI Industries","SABR":"Sabre Corporation"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-15-stocks-junes-biggest-losers-could-become-julys-winners-11625238769?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122056398","content_text":"‘Short-term reversal strategy’ often does particularly well in July.\n\nJune’s worst stocks are good bets to beat the U.S. market in in July.\nThat’s because portfolio window-dressing at the end of June will have made that month’s poor performers fall even further than they would have otherwise. It’s likely that once this artificial selling pressure disappears, these stocks will bounce back.\nTo be sure, window dressing is a powerful force on several occasions throughout the calendar, not just at this time of year. It should have the biggest impact at the end of December, since more investors look at their portfolio holdings in early January than in any other month of the year. Fund managers therefore go out of their way to sell their losers prior to Dec. 31 in order to avoid the embarrassment of having to report that they had ever owned them.\nJust the opposite is the case for stocks that managers buy for window dressing. These are the stocks that already have been performing well and which managers want to show in their end-of-quarter holdings report. Their cosmetic buying will cause these stocks to perform even better — which, in turn, results in them falling back to earth once the new quarter comes around.\nAs expected, January is the month in which the previous month’s worst performers fare best relative to the previous month’s best performers — a pattern known as the “short term reversal effect.” This is illustrated in the chart below, which reflects monthly data back to 1926. July is the second-most powerful month for this pattern. That also makes sense because, after January, July is the next most common time for investors to read through their brokerage statements.\n\nAlso as expected, end-of-quarter window dressing is less of a factor at the end of the first- and third quarters. In fact, as you can see from the chart, the short-term reversal effect is even less dominant in April than in non-quarter-end months.\nHow to play the short-term reversal in July\nAs is often the case, an exchange-traded fund has been created to exploit the short-term reversal effect. Vesper US Large Cap Short-Term Reversal Strategy ETFUTRN,“seeks to capitalize on the tendency for stocks that have experienced sharp recent sell-offs to experience near-term rebounds.”\nBecause the fund was only recently created, in September 2018, the ETF’s average monthly returns since then are only suggestive of the long-term pattern. But its average return in July has been better (4.1%) than in any other month.\nFor anyone interested in the individual stocks that performed the worst in June, I constructed the following list. I started with the 50 stocks in the S&P 1500 index with the worst June returns, and then eliminated ones not currently recommended by any of the top-performing newsletters monitored by my newsletter-performance-tracking service.\nThe 15 stocks listed below survived this winnowing process. I note that, on average, these 15 lost 15.4% during the month of June, versus a gain of 2.3% for the S&P 500SPX.\n\nAdient PLC ADNT\nAlaska Air Group ALK\nAlliance Data Systems ADS\nAmerica’s Car Mart CRMT\nArcBest ARCB\nGoodyear Tire & Rubber GT\nKB Home KBH\nLCI Industries LCII\nMosaic & Co .MOS\nMedifast MED\nNewmont Corp. NEM\nOrganon & Co. OGN\nPatrick Industries PATK\nRegions Financial RF\nSabre SABR\n\nI also note that these stocks have an average price/book value ratio of 3.3, which is well-below the 4.7 ratio for the S&P 500. Having a below-average price/book ratio is the hallmark of a value stock, and it makes sense that value stocks will be favored by the short-term reversal strategy. That’s because value stocks significantly underperformed growth stocks in June — but their fortunes may soon 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you for informing","listText":"Thank you for informing","text":"Thank you for informing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141049345","repostId":"2150037500","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":433,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152778706,"gmtCreate":1625361178705,"gmtModify":1633941330795,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152778706","repostId":"1192257130","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":156870586,"gmtCreate":1625214398445,"gmtModify":1633942475894,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还是先看看市场走势，再做决定比较保险","listText":"还是先看看市场走势，再做决定比较保险","text":"还是先看看市场走势，再做决定比较保险","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156870586","repostId":"2148041829","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":141056912,"gmtCreate":1625827141136,"gmtModify":1633936946905,"author":{"id":"3586510836038332","authorId":"3586510836038332","name":"vng","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f6ee1363a675a706e1304a968eeb098","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586510836038332","idStr":"3586510836038332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141056912","repostId":"1181179663","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181179663","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625822664,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181179663?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 17:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Oil prices firm as U.S. inventories decline<blockquote>美国库存下降油价坚挺</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181179663","media":"Reuters","summary":"LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second day on Friday as data showed a draw in U.S. inventor","content":"<p>LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second day on Friday as data showed a draw in U.S. inventories, but were heading for a weekly loss amid uncertainty over global supplies after an OPEC+ impasse.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦（路透社）-由于数据显示美国库存减少，油价周五连续第二天上涨，但由于欧佩克+僵局后全球供应的不确定性，油价将出现每周下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Brent crude oil futures were up 60 cents, or 0.8%, at $74.72 a barrel by 0845 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 69 cents, or 1%, at $73.63.</p><p><blockquote>截至格林威治标准时间0845，布伦特原油期货上涨60美分，或0.8%，至每桶74.72美元。美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货上涨69美分，涨幅1%，报73.63美元。</blockquote></p><p> Prices on both sides of the Atlantic were on track for a weekly loss of nearly 2%, dragged down by the collapse of output talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+.</p><p><blockquote>受石油输出国组织（OPEC）与包括俄罗斯在内的盟友（统称为OPEC+）之间的产量谈判破裂拖累，大西洋两岸的价格有望每周下跌近2%。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell and gasoline demand reached its highest since 2019, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, signalling increasing strength in the economy.</p><p><blockquote>美国能源情报署周四表示，美国原油和汽油库存下降，汽油需求达到2019年以来的最高水平，表明经济实力增强。</blockquote></p><p> “A bullish EIA stock report helped the oil market rebound into the black,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.</p><p><blockquote>石油经纪商PVM的Stephen Brennock表示：“看涨的EIA股票报告帮助石油市场反弹盈利。”</blockquote></p><p> “Clearly, U.S. oil markets are tight. However ... the only way to prevent further losses is for the threat of an OPEC+ price war to be contained,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“显然，美国石油市场紧张。然而……防止进一步损失的唯一方法是遏制OPEC+价格战的威胁，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Gains in oil prices were capped by worries that members of the OPEC+ group could be tempted to abandon output limits that they have followed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with talks breaking down because of an impasse between major producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心OPEC+集团成员国可能会试图放弃他们在COVID-19大流行期间遵循的产量限制，主要产油国沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国之间的僵局导致谈判破裂，油价涨幅受到限制。</blockquote></p><p> The two Gulf OPEC allies are at odds over a proposed deal that would have brought more oil to the market.</p><p><blockquote>这两个海湾石油输出国组织盟友在一项将向市场带来更多石油的拟议协议上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> Russia was trying to mediate in an effort to strike a deal to raise output, OPEC+ sources said on Wednesday. The United States had high level conversations with officials in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the White House said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>OPEC+消息人士周三表示，俄罗斯正试图进行调解，以达成增产协议。白宫周二表示，美国与沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的官员进行了高层对话。</blockquote></p><p> The global spread of the Delta coronavirus variant and worries it could stall a worldwide economic recovery also weighed on oil prices.</p><p><blockquote>德尔塔新冠病毒变异毒株的全球蔓延以及对其可能阻碍全球经济复苏的担忧也打压了油价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Oil prices firm as U.S. inventories decline<blockquote>美国库存下降油价坚挺</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOil prices firm as U.S. inventories decline<blockquote>美国库存下降油价坚挺</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-09 17:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second day on Friday as data showed a draw in U.S. inventories, but were heading for a weekly loss amid uncertainty over global supplies after an OPEC+ impasse.</p><p><blockquote>伦敦（路透社）-由于数据显示美国库存减少，油价周五连续第二天上涨，但由于欧佩克+僵局后全球供应的不确定性，油价将出现每周下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Brent crude oil futures were up 60 cents, or 0.8%, at $74.72 a barrel by 0845 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 69 cents, or 1%, at $73.63.</p><p><blockquote>截至格林威治标准时间0845，布伦特原油期货上涨60美分，或0.8%，至每桶74.72美元。美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货上涨69美分，涨幅1%，报73.63美元。</blockquote></p><p> Prices on both sides of the Atlantic were on track for a weekly loss of nearly 2%, dragged down by the collapse of output talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+.</p><p><blockquote>受石油输出国组织（OPEC）与包括俄罗斯在内的盟友（统称为OPEC+）之间的产量谈判破裂拖累，大西洋两岸的价格有望每周下跌近2%。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell and gasoline demand reached its highest since 2019, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, signalling increasing strength in the economy.</p><p><blockquote>美国能源情报署周四表示，美国原油和汽油库存下降，汽油需求达到2019年以来的最高水平，表明经济实力增强。</blockquote></p><p> “A bullish EIA stock report helped the oil market rebound into the black,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.</p><p><blockquote>石油经纪商PVM的Stephen Brennock表示：“看涨的EIA股票报告帮助石油市场反弹盈利。”</blockquote></p><p> “Clearly, U.S. oil markets are tight. However ... the only way to prevent further losses is for the threat of an OPEC+ price war to be contained,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“显然，美国石油市场紧张。然而……防止进一步损失的唯一方法是遏制OPEC+价格战的威胁，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Gains in oil prices were capped by worries that members of the OPEC+ group could be tempted to abandon output limits that they have followed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with talks breaking down because of an impasse between major producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.</p><p><blockquote>由于担心OPEC+集团成员国可能会试图放弃他们在COVID-19大流行期间遵循的产量限制，主要产油国沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国之间的僵局导致谈判破裂，油价涨幅受到限制。</blockquote></p><p> The two Gulf OPEC allies are at odds over a proposed deal that would have brought more oil to the market.</p><p><blockquote>这两个海湾石油输出国组织盟友在一项将向市场带来更多石油的拟议协议上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> Russia was trying to mediate in an effort to strike a deal to raise output, OPEC+ sources said on Wednesday. The United States had high level conversations with officials in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the White House said on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>OPEC+消息人士周三表示，俄罗斯正试图进行调解，以达成增产协议。白宫周二表示，美国与沙特阿拉伯和阿联酋的官员进行了高层对话。</blockquote></p><p> The global spread of the Delta coronavirus variant and worries it could stall a worldwide economic recovery also weighed on oil prices.</p><p><blockquote>德尔塔新冠病毒变异毒株的全球蔓延以及对其可能阻碍全球经济复苏的担忧也打压了油价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil/update-3-oil-prices-firm-as-u-s-inventories-decline-idUSL2N2OL07F\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XOM":"埃克森美孚"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil/update-3-oil-prices-firm-as-u-s-inventories-decline-idUSL2N2OL07F","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181179663","content_text":"LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices rose for a second day on Friday as data showed a draw in U.S. inventories, but were heading for a weekly loss amid uncertainty over global supplies after an OPEC+ impasse.\nBrent crude oil futures were up 60 cents, or 0.8%, at $74.72 a barrel by 0845 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures were up 69 cents, or 1%, at $73.63.\nPrices on both sides of the Atlantic were on track for a weekly loss of nearly 2%, dragged down by the collapse of output talks between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, together known as OPEC+.\nU.S. crude and gasoline stocks fell and gasoline demand reached its highest since 2019, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on Thursday, signalling increasing strength in the economy.\n“A bullish EIA stock report helped the oil market rebound into the black,” said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.\n“Clearly, U.S. oil markets are tight. However ... the only way to prevent further losses is for the threat of an OPEC+ price war to be contained,” he added.\nGains in oil prices were capped by worries that members of the OPEC+ group could be tempted to abandon output limits that they have followed during the COVID-19 pandemic, with talks breaking down because of an impasse between major producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.\nThe two Gulf OPEC allies are at odds over a proposed deal that would have brought more oil to the market.\nRussia was trying to mediate in an effort to strike a deal to raise output, OPEC+ sources said on Wednesday. The United States had high level conversations with officials in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the White House said on Tuesday.\nThe global spread of the Delta coronavirus variant and worries it could stall a worldwide economic recovery also weighed on oil prices.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLmain":0.9,"XOM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}