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Lainey_Lim

Lainey_Lim

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2021-10-15

Sad but seems true that buying the Dip is dead 💀

Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>

2021-10-14

BUY-ing [Miser]

86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating<blockquote>86Research 对 TIGR 给予买入评级</blockquote>

2021-10-08

Fingers crossed that is ‘melt up’ through theend of the year [Smart]

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2021-10-07

Market is extremely volatile at the moment [Facepalm]

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2021-10-02

Interesting choices 🤔

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2021-09-30

So much good options! [Miser]

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2021-09-29

Looks like we will need to cash up 🐯

Morgan Stanley Dismisses Market's "Strong Rebound", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment<blockquote>摩根士丹利对市场“强劲反弹”不屑一顾，对即将到来的盈利令人失望仍然看跌</blockquote>

2021-09-26

Added to watchlist [Observation]

5 Top Consumer Stocks To Watch Ahead Of October 2021<blockquote>2021 年 10 月前值得关注的 5 只顶级消费股</blockquote>

2021-09-24

Great tips to help go to the moon 🚀

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2021-09-23

[Blush]

Why Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors<blockquote>为什么摩根士丹利开始将“火与冰”和熊市下跌视为股市投资者“更有可能”</blockquote>

2021-09-22

Hopefully this will boost the share price 🚀

Open Orphan Gets £5.7 Mln Influenza Human Challenge Study Contract<blockquote>Open Orphan 获得价值 570 万英镑的流感人类挑战研究合同</blockquote>

2021-09-18

To the moon 🚀

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2021-09-17

High risk, high return and not for everyone especially that’s your means of income! You might lose it all [Spurting]

Short-selling stocks -- and trying to play short squeezes -- can be very dangerous<blockquote>卖空股票——并试图进行逼空——可能非常危险</blockquote>

2021-09-11

Gather your funds to buy in the dip [Miser]

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2021-09-10

Agrees! Market goes up and down. Hold on tight and buy in the dip [Miser]

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2021-09-09

Risky but definitely there’s potential 🚀

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2021-09-08

Be prepared to buy in the next dip [Tongue]

Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>

2021-09-07

Great tips [Miser]

3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点投资的 3 条黄金法则</blockquote>

2021-09-01

Amazing [Wow]

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2021-08-30

It’s my birthday too 🥳

抱歉，原内容已删除

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"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sad but seems true that buying the Dip is dead 💀","listText":"Sad but seems true that buying the Dip is dead 💀","text":"Sad but seems true that buying the Dip is dead 💀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825701647","repostId":"1111412750","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111412750","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634182832,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1111412750?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111412750","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical rea","content":"<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li>  <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li>  <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经崩溃。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎陷入困境。为什么逢低买入没有奏效，这是一个很好的理由，而且这次可能也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote></p><p> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.</p><p><blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，每次市场动摇时，波动性下降一直是支撑市场的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX 都会飙升。然后，一大群交易者会进来寻找做空波动性，这将导致 VIX 走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一组成部分似乎已经消失。VIX自6月份以来一直在稳步上升，低点更高。最近，VIX 一直未能低于 18，而且标普500的每次下跌都会出现更低的高点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.</p><p><blockquote>此外，倾斜指数最近几周急剧下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空其平价形式，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入平价形式。这就是为什么当VIX触及低点时，倾斜指数在6月份创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.</p><p><blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月之前没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对冲空头波动头寸的对冲，偏斜指数正在上升。</blockquote></p><p> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.</p><p><blockquote>如果波动性卖家不回到这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.</p><p><blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能即将退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。看来波动性卖家的消失是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上的相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过。巨大的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天和那时有许多相同的相似之处。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>美元指数可能是其中的一大部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的走势与美元的走势完全相反。当美元走强时，标普500就会下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股票不利。</blockquote></p><p> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.</p><p><blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过 35 个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期利率很可能需要上涨更多。到 2014 年 10 月量化宽松结束时，两年期利率约为 50 至 60 个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在将进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在 11 月 FOMC 会议后开始。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美元走强，但 10 年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在回升我几个月来一直告诉你的情况。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近停滞速度。他们在美国变得如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow现在预计第三季度的增长率仅为1.3%，比第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>市场知道，在正常情况下，强势美元会向购买商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等商品价格上涨已经可能减缓增长，现在随着美元升值，这个问题变得更加突出。它降低了曲线长端的利率，并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote></p><p> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.</p><p><blockquote>这次与以往的回调不同。这就是为什么这次回调仅处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为有一点非常清楚，那就是 GDP 增长预期远远偏离基数，这意味着盈利预期极有可能远离基数，这意味着盈利增长率将走低或高于下降幅度。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.</p><p><blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的情况下推高美元指数，导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuying The Dip Is Dead<blockquote>逢低买入已死</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-14 11:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Summary</p><p><blockquote>总结</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Buying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.</li>  <li>There's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"</li>  <li>That mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.</li> </ul> The market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>当波动性卖家未能出现时，逢低买入就死了。</li><li>市场没有“反弹”有一个机械原因。</li><li>由于根本性的转变，这种机械原因已经崩溃。</li></ul>市场一直在融化，那种“逢低买入”的心态似乎陷入困境。为什么逢低买入没有奏效，这是一个很好的理由，而且这次可能也不会奏效。你所要做的就是看看VIX和偏斜指数，就能明白为什么。</blockquote></p><p> Falling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&amp;P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&amp;P 500 has seen lower highs.</p><p><blockquote>自新冠疫情低点以来，每次市场动摇时，波动性下降一直是支撑市场的关键。每次市场下跌，VIX 都会飙升。然后，一大群交易者会进来寻找做空波动性，这将导致 VIX 走低，推高标普500。然而，市场的这一组成部分似乎已经消失。VIX自6月份以来一直在稳步上升，低点更高。最近，VIX 一直未能低于 18，而且标普500的每次下跌都会出现更低的高点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d40186560f397cc6ebdc4e85ba18725\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.</p><p><blockquote>此外，倾斜指数最近几周急剧下降。这是因为一直押注波动性下降的交易者可能一直在做空其平价形式，为了对冲这些头寸，他们一直在买入平价形式。这就是为什么当VIX触及低点时，倾斜指数在6月份创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> The SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.</p><p><blockquote>SKEW指数在2021年6月之前没有上升，因为交易者试图对冲尾部风险或不可预见的事件。作为对冲空头波动头寸的对冲，偏斜指数正在上升。</blockquote></p><p> If volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.</p><p><blockquote>如果波动性卖家不回到这个市场，那么为什么市场总是能够在每次下跌时如此迅速地反弹的很大一部分将消失。逢低买入根本行不通。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d92c33e67c289d5c9d1e8d0d6ec74b5d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> But with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that&nbsp;dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.</p><p><blockquote>但随着量化宽松可能即将退出，金融状况可能会因此收紧。看来波动性卖家的消失是有充分理由的。如果是这样的话，市场上的相当大的风险就不会是害怕错过。巨大的风险是崩溃，与2018年没有太大不同，我在几个场合注意到今天和那时有许多相同的相似之处。</blockquote></p><p> The dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&amp;P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&amp;P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The&nbsp;dollar is telling us that tapering&nbsp;is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>美元指数可能是其中的一大部分。它一直在飙升，而标普500的走势与美元的走势完全相反。当美元走强时，标普500就会下跌，反之亦然。美元告诉我们，缩减规模即将到来，而且很快。股市也知道这意味着什么，这对股票不利。</blockquote></p><p> The two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the&nbsp;two-year&nbsp;now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.</p><p><blockquote>两年期国债利率也一直在攀升，目前已超过 35 个基点。如果美联储缩减规模，两年期利率很可能需要上涨更多。到 2014 年 10 月量化宽松结束时，两年期利率约为 50 至 60 个基点。这意味着两年期利率现在将进一步攀升，因为这一过程可能会在 11 月 FOMC 会议后开始。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美元走强，但 10 年期国债一直在下跌，这是因为市场正在回升我几个月来一直告诉你的情况。美国和全球的增长率一直在放缓，现在接近停滞速度。他们在美国变得如此缓慢，以至于亚特兰大联储GDPNow现在预计第三季度的增长率仅为1.3%，比第二季度的6.7%大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce210603773584da38e4fbf054f31ba9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.</p><p><blockquote>市场知道，在正常情况下，强势美元会向购买商品、为债务融资或以美元开展业务的国家输出通胀力量。这是全球增长杀手。最重要的是，能源等商品价格上涨已经可能减缓增长，现在随着美元升值，这个问题变得更加突出。它降低了曲线长端的利率，并使收益率曲线变平。</blockquote></p><p> This time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that&nbsp;earnings estimates&nbsp;are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.</p><p><blockquote>这次与以往的回调不同。这就是为什么这次回调仅处于早期阶段。盈利预期已经开始下降，而且可能会进一步下降，因为有一点非常清楚，那就是 GDP 增长预期远远偏离基数，这意味着盈利预期极有可能远离基数，这意味着盈利增长率将走低或高于下降幅度。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b784f4142c7b91a6c36b4c8d263db047\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"480\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.</p><p><blockquote>这只是股市何时意识到美联储缩减规模事件将在最糟糕的情况下推高美元指数，导致大规模的全球增长恐慌的问题。也许这是波动性卖家离开大楼的最大原因。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4459696-buying-the-dip-is-dead","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111412750","content_text":"Summary\n\nBuying the dip died when the volatility sellers failed to show up.\nThere's a mechanical reason why the market has not \"bounced back.\"\nThat mechanical reason has broken down due to fundamental shifts.\n\nThe market has been melting, and that \"buy the dip\" mentality seems to be in trouble. There's an excellent reason for why buying the dip hasn't worked, and probably why it won't work this time around either. All you have to do is look at the VIX and the SKEW indexes to understand why.\nFalling volatility has been a lynchpin of propping up the market every time it falters since the COVID low. Every time the market sank, the VIX would spike higher. Then, a swarm of traders would come in looking to short volatility, which would send the VIX lower, pushing the S&P 500 higher. However, that component of the market appears to be gone. The VIX has been steadily rising since June, with higher lows. More recently, the VIX hasn't been able to get below 18, and each drop in the S&P 500 has seen lower highs.\n\nAdditionally, the SKEW index has cratered in recent weeks. It's because traders that have been betting on volatility falling have likely been shorting at-the-money forms of it, and to hedge those positions, they have been buying out-of-money forms. It's why the SKEW index reached record highs in June as the VIX hit its lows.\nThe SKEW index wasn't rising into June 2021 because traders were trying to hedge against tail risk or an unforeseen event. The SKEW index was rising as a hedge against short volatility positions.\nIf volatility sellers do not return to this market, then a big piece of why the market always has been able to bounce back so quickly on every dip will be gone. Buying the dip will simply not work.\n\nBut with QE likely on its way out, financial conditions are likely to tighten as a result. It seems that volatility sellers have gone missing for a good reason. If that's the case, the considerable risk in the market isn't going to be the fear of missing out. The substantial risk is a meltdown, not all that dissimilar to that of 2018, which I have noted on several occasions many of the same similarities of today to back then.\nThe dollar index may be a big piece of that. It has been surging higher, and that the S&P 500 has been trading precisely the opposite to the dollar's move. When the dollar has been strengthening, the S&P 500 has been falling and vice versa. The dollar is telling us that tapering is coming and very soon. The stock market knows what this means too, and it isn't good for stocks.\nThe two-year Treasury rate has also been creeping higher and now stands at more than 35 bps. The two-year most likely needs to rise much more if the Fed is tapering. By the time the QE taper ended in October 2014, the two-year was around 50 to 60 bps. That means the two-year now has further to climb as this process commences potentially as soon as the November FOMC meeting.\nDespite the stronger dollar, the 10-year has been falling, and that's because the market is picking up on what I have been telling you for months. Growth rates here in the US and around the globe have been slowing and are now near stall speed. They have gotten so slow here in the US that the Atlanta Fed GDPNow is now projecting just a 1.3% third quarter growth rate, an enormous drop from the second-quarter reading of 6.7%.\n\nThe market knows that a strong dollar in regular times exports inflationary forces aboard in countries that buy commodities, finances debt, or conduct business in dollars. It's a global growth killer. On top of that, rising prices for things like energy are already likely to slow growth, and now with the dollar rising, it makes the problem even more prominent. It is driving the rates on the long-end of the curve lower and flattening the yield curve.\nThis time is different from previous pullbacks. This is why this time the pullback is only in its early phases. Earnings estimates have started to come down, and they are likely to come down further because if one thing is crystal clear, GDP growth expectations were way off base, and means that it is highly likely that earnings estimates are way off base, which means earnings growth rates will be heading lower or top of what they have declined.\n\nIt's just a matter of when the stock market realizes that a Fed tapering event will push the dollar index even higher at the worst possible time resulting in a massive global growth scare. Perhaps the biggest reason why the volatility sellers have left the building.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4046,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825166300,"gmtCreate":1634210513996,"gmtModify":1634210514110,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"BUY-ing [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"BUY-ing [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"BUY-ing [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825166300","repostId":"1169529009","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1169529009","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632904196,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1169529009?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 16:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating<blockquote>86Research 对 TIGR 给予买入评级</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169529009","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"• 86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating. Growing demand for cross-border stock inv","content":"<p>• 86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating. Growing demand for cross-border stock investment in China and rising internet-based retail brokerage services globally&nbsp;together support strong industry fundamentals. TIGR, an early mover in the internet brokerage sector, significantly outperforms traditional brokers by providing better services for retail investors. Their&nbsp;price target of US$21 per ADS implies 83%&nbsp;upside&nbsp;potential&nbsp;from&nbsp;the&nbsp;latest&nbsp;market&nbsp;close&nbsp;price,&nbsp;despite&nbsp;possible&nbsp;sector-widevolatilityinChineseADRs.</p><p><blockquote>- 86Research 对 TIGR 给予买入评级。中国对跨境股票投资的需求不断增长，以及全球互联网零售经纪服务的兴起，共同支撑了强劲的行业基本面。TIGR是互联网经纪行业的先行者，通过为散户投资者提供更好的服务，其表现明显优于传统经纪商。尽管中国 ADR 可能存在全行业波动，但其每股 ADS 21 美元的目标价意味着较最新市场收盘价有 83% 的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> •&nbsp;86Research forecasts TIGR’s net revenues will reach US&nbsp;$668 mln in 2024, giving it a 4-yr CAGR of 51%. According to their projection, the number of customers with deposits on TIGR will reach 1.7 mln by the end of 2024. The total AUM and financing balance will exceed US$103 bln and US$5.5 bln, respectively. Trading volumes on TIGR are forecast to reach US$1,338 bln in 2024. 86Research expects the commission rate will remain largely flat. More derivatives trades will partially offset the negative impact from price competition. 86Research thinks the blended interest rate will&nbsp;decline&nbsp;due&nbsp;to&nbsp;the&nbsp;mix&nbsp;change&nbsp;of&nbsp;financing&nbsp;activities&nbsp;on&nbsp;the&nbsp;platform.</p><p><blockquote>- 86Research 预测 TIGR 2024 年的净收入将达到 6.68 亿美元，4 年复合年增长率为 51%。根据他们的预测，到2024年底，在TIGR上有存款的客户数量将达到170万。资产管理总额和融资余额将分别超过1030亿美元和55亿美元。预计 2024 年 TIGR 的交易量将达到 13.38 亿美元。86 Research 预计佣金率将基本持平。更多的衍生品交易将部分抵消价格竞争的负面影响。86Research认为，由于平台上融资活动的组合变化，混合利率将会下降。</blockquote></p><p> • 86Research&nbsp;derives&nbsp;their&nbsp;US$21&nbsp;price&nbsp;target&nbsp;based&nbsp;on&nbsp;a&nbsp;20x&nbsp;2024E&nbsp;P/E&nbsp;multiple&nbsp;and&nbsp;13%&nbsp;2-yr&nbsp;discount&nbsp;rate.&nbsp;The&nbsp;PT&nbsp;implies&nbsp;13.8x/11.7x/8.4x&nbsp;2021E/2022E/2023E&nbsp;forward&nbsp;P/B&nbsp;multiples,&nbsp;reflecting&nbsp;a&nbsp;premium&nbsp;to&nbsp;global&nbsp;peers.&nbsp;HK&nbsp;license&nbsp;approval,&nbsp;progress&nbsp;in&nbsp;international&nbsp;expansion and US self-clearing are the key catalysts in the near term, while regulatory and macro uncertainties are the main investment risks. 86Research recommends investors buy the stock on recent pullbacks which have resulted from weak market sentiment. 86’s View on TIGR: BUY; PT$21/ADS; A Rising China-Based Internet Brokerage Platform; Global Expansion To Drive Long-term Growth; Recent pullbacks create a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>- 86Research 根据 20x 2024E 市盈率和 13% 2 年期贴现率得出 21 美元的目标价。PT 意味着 2021E/2022E/2023E 远期市盈率为 13.8 倍/11.7 倍/8.4 倍，反映出相对于全球同行的溢价。香港牌照获批、国际扩张进展和美国自我清算是短期内的主要催化剂，而监管和宏观不确定性则是主要的投资风险。86Research 建议投资者在近期市场情绪疲软导致回调时购买该股。86 对 TIGR 的看法：买入；21美元/ADS；一家新兴的中国互联网经纪平台；全球扩张以推动长期增长；最近的回调创造了买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> • 86Research is bullish on TIGR’s capability to continue to gain market share from traditional brokers. The strategic focus and operating efficiency of Internet companies give advantages to TIGR, such as lower pricing and better user experience in retail brokerage services. Moreover, TIGR provides more variety than most traditional brokers, enabling retail investors to trade securities in several markets in one app&nbsp;and&nbsp;one&nbsp;account.</p><p><blockquote>- 86Research 看好 TIGR 继续从传统经纪商手中夺取市场份额的能力。互联网公司的战略重点和运营效率赋予了TIGR优势，例如在零售经纪服务方面更低的定价和更好的用户体验。此外，TIGR 比大多数传统经纪商提供更多种类，使散户投资者能够在一个应用程序和一个账户中在多个市场交易证券。</blockquote></p><p> • Non-commission revenues are ramping up quickly. Interest income will keep growing as more consolidated account (CA) account users will adopt self-funded financing services provided by TIGR. Their analysis suggests that the net interest spread of the financing services for CA account users was much higher than the rate of financing service for fully disclosed (FD) account users. In addition, the business&nbsp;development&nbsp;in&nbsp;investment&nbsp;banking&nbsp;and&nbsp;wealth&nbsp;management&nbsp;services&nbsp;are&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to&nbsp;contribute&nbsp;meaningful&nbsp;revenues.</p><p><blockquote>- 非佣金收入正在快速增长。随着更多综合账户（CA）账户用户采用TIGR提供的自筹资金融资服务，利息收入将持续增长。他们的分析表明，CA账户用户融资服务的净利差远高于完全披露（FD）账户用户融资服务的利率。此外，投资银行及财富管理服务的业务发展预期将带来可观的收益。</blockquote></p><p> • International expansion creates a new story. TIGR has ramped up its global expansion from 3Q20, mainly targeting Singapore and US markets. Singapore has more than 1 mln addressable individual investors, about half of the market size in HK. The US market has nearly 100 mln retail investors, with total assets of approximately $50 trillion.&nbsp;Although&nbsp;facing&nbsp;challenges&nbsp;in&nbsp;terms&nbsp;of&nbsp;culture,&nbsp;regulatory&nbsp;environment&nbsp;and&nbsp;competition,&nbsp;86Research&nbsp;is&nbsp;positive&nbsp;that&nbsp;TIGR&nbsp;will&nbsp;capture&nbsp;more&nbsp;growth&nbsp;in&nbsp;its&nbsp;two&nbsp;promising&nbsp;markets.</p><p><blockquote>• 国际扩张创造新的故事。TIGR 加大了从2020年第三季度开始的全球扩张力度，主要针对新加坡和美国市场。新加坡有超过100万个人投资者，大约是香港市场规模的一半。美国市场有近1亿散户投资者，总资产约为50万亿美元。尽管面临文化、监管环境和竞争方面的挑战，86Research乐观地认为，TIGR将在其两个有前途的市场获得更多增长。</blockquote></p><p> • TIGR’s stock price has been volatile. 86Research recommends investors buy on the dip. Recent stock market volatility will impact its financial performance but won‘t change the long-term growth story, in their view. The company continues to gain market share in retail brokerage services and develop non-commission businesses, such as margin financing, wealth management, order flows, etc.86Research&nbsp;is confident such growth&nbsp;can&nbsp;offset&nbsp;the&nbsp;cyclical&nbsp;impact&nbsp;from&nbsp;a&nbsp;long-term&nbsp;perspective.</p><p><blockquote>- TIGR 的股价一直波动不定。86Research建议投资者逢低买入。他们认为，近期股市波动将影响其财务业绩，但不会改变长期增长故事。公司继续扩大零售经纪服务的市场份额，并发展保证金融资、财富管理、订单流等非佣金业务。86研究相信，从长期来看，这种增长可以抵消周期性影响。</blockquote></p><p> • HK license is a near-term catalyst. TIGR is expected to get a brokerage license in HK as soon as this year, which will enable it to run market campaigns and acquire users in the region. As a registered brokerage firm, TIGR&nbsp;can&nbsp;also&nbsp;build&nbsp;connections&nbsp;with&nbsp;banks to&nbsp;provide&nbsp;IPO&nbsp;subscriptions&nbsp;and&nbsp;financing&nbsp;services&nbsp;in&nbsp;Hong&nbsp;Kong&nbsp;and&nbsp;support&nbsp;the&nbsp;development&nbsp;of&nbsp;margin&nbsp;financing&nbsp;business.</p><p><blockquote>• 香港牌照是近期的催化剂。TIGR 预计最快将于今年在香港获得经纪牌照，这将使其能够在该地区开展市场活动并获取用户。作为注册券商，老虎证券亦可与银行建立联系，在香港提供IPO认购及融资服务，并支持孖展融资业务的发展。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating<blockquote>86Research 对 TIGR 给予买入评级</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating<blockquote>86Research 对 TIGR 给予买入评级</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-29 16:29</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>• 86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating. Growing demand for cross-border stock investment in China and rising internet-based retail brokerage services globally&nbsp;together support strong industry fundamentals. TIGR, an early mover in the internet brokerage sector, significantly outperforms traditional brokers by providing better services for retail investors. Their&nbsp;price target of US$21 per ADS implies 83%&nbsp;upside&nbsp;potential&nbsp;from&nbsp;the&nbsp;latest&nbsp;market&nbsp;close&nbsp;price,&nbsp;despite&nbsp;possible&nbsp;sector-widevolatilityinChineseADRs.</p><p><blockquote>- 86Research 对 TIGR 给予买入评级。中国对跨境股票投资的需求不断增长，以及全球互联网零售经纪服务的兴起，共同支撑了强劲的行业基本面。TIGR是互联网经纪行业的先行者，通过为散户投资者提供更好的服务，其表现明显优于传统经纪商。尽管中国 ADR 可能存在全行业波动，但其每股 ADS 21 美元的目标价意味着较最新市场收盘价有 83% 的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> •&nbsp;86Research forecasts TIGR’s net revenues will reach US&nbsp;$668 mln in 2024, giving it a 4-yr CAGR of 51%. According to their projection, the number of customers with deposits on TIGR will reach 1.7 mln by the end of 2024. The total AUM and financing balance will exceed US$103 bln and US$5.5 bln, respectively. Trading volumes on TIGR are forecast to reach US$1,338 bln in 2024. 86Research expects the commission rate will remain largely flat. More derivatives trades will partially offset the negative impact from price competition. 86Research thinks the blended interest rate will&nbsp;decline&nbsp;due&nbsp;to&nbsp;the&nbsp;mix&nbsp;change&nbsp;of&nbsp;financing&nbsp;activities&nbsp;on&nbsp;the&nbsp;platform.</p><p><blockquote>- 86Research 预测 TIGR 2024 年的净收入将达到 6.68 亿美元，4 年复合年增长率为 51%。根据他们的预测，到2024年底，在TIGR上有存款的客户数量将达到170万。资产管理总额和融资余额将分别超过1030亿美元和55亿美元。预计 2024 年 TIGR 的交易量将达到 13.38 亿美元。86 Research 预计佣金率将基本持平。更多的衍生品交易将部分抵消价格竞争的负面影响。86Research认为，由于平台上融资活动的组合变化，混合利率将会下降。</blockquote></p><p> • 86Research&nbsp;derives&nbsp;their&nbsp;US$21&nbsp;price&nbsp;target&nbsp;based&nbsp;on&nbsp;a&nbsp;20x&nbsp;2024E&nbsp;P/E&nbsp;multiple&nbsp;and&nbsp;13%&nbsp;2-yr&nbsp;discount&nbsp;rate.&nbsp;The&nbsp;PT&nbsp;implies&nbsp;13.8x/11.7x/8.4x&nbsp;2021E/2022E/2023E&nbsp;forward&nbsp;P/B&nbsp;multiples,&nbsp;reflecting&nbsp;a&nbsp;premium&nbsp;to&nbsp;global&nbsp;peers.&nbsp;HK&nbsp;license&nbsp;approval,&nbsp;progress&nbsp;in&nbsp;international&nbsp;expansion and US self-clearing are the key catalysts in the near term, while regulatory and macro uncertainties are the main investment risks. 86Research recommends investors buy the stock on recent pullbacks which have resulted from weak market sentiment. 86’s View on TIGR: BUY; PT$21/ADS; A Rising China-Based Internet Brokerage Platform; Global Expansion To Drive Long-term Growth; Recent pullbacks create a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>- 86Research 根据 20x 2024E 市盈率和 13% 2 年期贴现率得出 21 美元的目标价。PT 意味着 2021E/2022E/2023E 远期市盈率为 13.8 倍/11.7 倍/8.4 倍，反映出相对于全球同行的溢价。香港牌照获批、国际扩张进展和美国自我清算是短期内的主要催化剂，而监管和宏观不确定性则是主要的投资风险。86Research 建议投资者在近期市场情绪疲软导致回调时购买该股。86 对 TIGR 的看法：买入；21美元/ADS；一家新兴的中国互联网经纪平台；全球扩张以推动长期增长；最近的回调创造了买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> • 86Research is bullish on TIGR’s capability to continue to gain market share from traditional brokers. The strategic focus and operating efficiency of Internet companies give advantages to TIGR, such as lower pricing and better user experience in retail brokerage services. Moreover, TIGR provides more variety than most traditional brokers, enabling retail investors to trade securities in several markets in one app&nbsp;and&nbsp;one&nbsp;account.</p><p><blockquote>- 86Research 看好 TIGR 继续从传统经纪商手中夺取市场份额的能力。互联网公司的战略重点和运营效率赋予了TIGR优势，例如在零售经纪服务方面更低的定价和更好的用户体验。此外，TIGR 比大多数传统经纪商提供更多种类，使散户投资者能够在一个应用程序和一个账户中在多个市场交易证券。</blockquote></p><p> • Non-commission revenues are ramping up quickly. Interest income will keep growing as more consolidated account (CA) account users will adopt self-funded financing services provided by TIGR. Their analysis suggests that the net interest spread of the financing services for CA account users was much higher than the rate of financing service for fully disclosed (FD) account users. In addition, the business&nbsp;development&nbsp;in&nbsp;investment&nbsp;banking&nbsp;and&nbsp;wealth&nbsp;management&nbsp;services&nbsp;are&nbsp;expected&nbsp;to&nbsp;contribute&nbsp;meaningful&nbsp;revenues.</p><p><blockquote>- 非佣金收入正在快速增长。随着更多综合账户（CA）账户用户采用TIGR提供的自筹资金融资服务，利息收入将持续增长。他们的分析表明，CA账户用户融资服务的净利差远高于完全披露（FD）账户用户融资服务的利率。此外，投资银行及财富管理服务的业务发展预期将带来可观的收益。</blockquote></p><p> • International expansion creates a new story. TIGR has ramped up its global expansion from 3Q20, mainly targeting Singapore and US markets. Singapore has more than 1 mln addressable individual investors, about half of the market size in HK. The US market has nearly 100 mln retail investors, with total assets of approximately $50 trillion.&nbsp;Although&nbsp;facing&nbsp;challenges&nbsp;in&nbsp;terms&nbsp;of&nbsp;culture,&nbsp;regulatory&nbsp;environment&nbsp;and&nbsp;competition,&nbsp;86Research&nbsp;is&nbsp;positive&nbsp;that&nbsp;TIGR&nbsp;will&nbsp;capture&nbsp;more&nbsp;growth&nbsp;in&nbsp;its&nbsp;two&nbsp;promising&nbsp;markets.</p><p><blockquote>• 国际扩张创造新的故事。TIGR 加大了从2020年第三季度开始的全球扩张力度，主要针对新加坡和美国市场。新加坡有超过100万个人投资者，大约是香港市场规模的一半。美国市场有近1亿散户投资者，总资产约为50万亿美元。尽管面临文化、监管环境和竞争方面的挑战，86Research乐观地认为，TIGR将在其两个有前途的市场获得更多增长。</blockquote></p><p> • TIGR’s stock price has been volatile. 86Research recommends investors buy on the dip. Recent stock market volatility will impact its financial performance but won‘t change the long-term growth story, in their view. The company continues to gain market share in retail brokerage services and develop non-commission businesses, such as margin financing, wealth management, order flows, etc.86Research&nbsp;is confident such growth&nbsp;can&nbsp;offset&nbsp;the&nbsp;cyclical&nbsp;impact&nbsp;from&nbsp;a&nbsp;long-term&nbsp;perspective.</p><p><blockquote>- TIGR 的股价一直波动不定。86Research建议投资者逢低买入。他们认为，近期股市波动将影响其财务业绩，但不会改变长期增长故事。公司继续扩大零售经纪服务的市场份额，并发展保证金融资、财富管理、订单流等非佣金业务。86研究相信，从长期来看，这种增长可以抵消周期性影响。</blockquote></p><p> • HK license is a near-term catalyst. TIGR is expected to get a brokerage license in HK as soon as this year, which will enable it to run market campaigns and acquire users in the region. As a registered brokerage firm, TIGR&nbsp;can&nbsp;also&nbsp;build&nbsp;connections&nbsp;with&nbsp;banks to&nbsp;provide&nbsp;IPO&nbsp;subscriptions&nbsp;and&nbsp;financing&nbsp;services&nbsp;in&nbsp;Hong&nbsp;Kong&nbsp;and&nbsp;support&nbsp;the&nbsp;development&nbsp;of&nbsp;margin&nbsp;financing&nbsp;business.</p><p><blockquote>• 香港牌照是近期的催化剂。TIGR 预计最快将于今年在香港获得经纪牌照，这将使其能够在该地区开展市场活动并获取用户。作为注册券商，老虎证券亦可与银行建立联系，在香港提供IPO认购及融资服务，并支持孖展融资业务的发展。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TIGR":"老虎证券"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169529009","content_text":"• 86Research initiates coverage on TIGR with a BUY rating. Growing demand for cross-border stock investment in China and rising internet-based retail brokerage services globally together support strong industry fundamentals. TIGR, an early mover in the internet brokerage sector, significantly outperforms traditional brokers by providing better services for retail investors. Their price target of US$21 per ADS implies 83% upside potential from the latest market close price, despite possible sector-widevolatilityinChineseADRs.\n• 86Research forecasts TIGR’s net revenues will reach US $668 mln in 2024, giving it a 4-yr CAGR of 51%. According to their projection, the number of customers with deposits on TIGR will reach 1.7 mln by the end of 2024. The total AUM and financing balance will exceed US$103 bln and US$5.5 bln, respectively. Trading volumes on TIGR are forecast to reach US$1,338 bln in 2024. 86Research expects the commission rate will remain largely flat. More derivatives trades will partially offset the negative impact from price competition. 86Research thinks the blended interest rate will decline due to the mix change of financing activities on the platform.\n• 86Research derives their US$21 price target based on a 20x 2024E P/E multiple and 13% 2-yr discount rate. The PT implies 13.8x/11.7x/8.4x 2021E/2022E/2023E forward P/B multiples, reflecting a premium to global peers. HK license approval, progress in international expansion and US self-clearing are the key catalysts in the near term, while regulatory and macro uncertainties are the main investment risks. 86Research recommends investors buy the stock on recent pullbacks which have resulted from weak market sentiment. 86’s View on TIGR: BUY; PT$21/ADS; A Rising China-Based Internet Brokerage Platform; Global Expansion To Drive Long-term Growth; Recent pullbacks create a buying opportunity.\n• 86Research is bullish on TIGR’s capability to continue to gain market share from traditional brokers. The strategic focus and operating efficiency of Internet companies give advantages to TIGR, such as lower pricing and better user experience in retail brokerage services. Moreover, TIGR provides more variety than most traditional brokers, enabling retail investors to trade securities in several markets in one app and one account.\n• Non-commission revenues are ramping up quickly. Interest income will keep growing as more consolidated account (CA) account users will adopt self-funded financing services provided by TIGR. Their analysis suggests that the net interest spread of the financing services for CA account users was much higher than the rate of financing service for fully disclosed (FD) account users. In addition, the business development in investment banking and wealth management services are expected to contribute meaningful revenues.\n• International expansion creates a new story. TIGR has ramped up its global expansion from 3Q20, mainly targeting Singapore and US markets. Singapore has more than 1 mln addressable individual investors, about half of the market size in HK. The US market has nearly 100 mln retail investors, with total assets of approximately $50 trillion. Although facing challenges in terms of culture, regulatory environment and competition, 86Research is positive that TIGR will capture more growth in its two promising markets.\n• TIGR’s stock price has been volatile. 86Research recommends investors buy on the dip. Recent stock market volatility will impact its financial performance but won‘t change the long-term growth story, in their view. The company continues to gain market share in retail brokerage services and develop non-commission businesses, such as margin financing, wealth management, order flows, etc.86Research is confident such growth can offset the cyclical impact from a long-term perspective.\n• HK license is a near-term catalyst. TIGR is expected to get a brokerage license in HK as soon as this year, which will enable it to run market campaigns and acquire users in the region. As a registered brokerage firm, TIGR can also build connections with banks to provide IPO subscriptions and financing services in Hong Kong and support the development of margin financing business.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TIGR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823518653,"gmtCreate":1633648680507,"gmtModify":1633648844493,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Fingers crossed that is ‘melt up’ through theend of the year&nbsp;[Smart]&nbsp;","listText":"Fingers crossed that is ‘melt up’ through theend of the year&nbsp;[Smart]&nbsp;","text":"Fingers crossed that is ‘melt up’ through theend of the year [Smart]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823518653","repostId":"1152020493","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829729057,"gmtCreate":1633560025456,"gmtModify":1633560025952,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Market is extremely volatile at the moment [Facepalm]&nbsp;","listText":"Market is extremely volatile at the moment [Facepalm]&nbsp;","text":"Market is extremely volatile at the moment [Facepalm]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829729057","repostId":"2173917919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864244853,"gmtCreate":1633123723364,"gmtModify":1633123723760,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Interesting choices&nbsp;🤔&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting choices&nbsp;🤔&nbsp;","text":"Interesting choices 🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864244853","repostId":"2172295185","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865339222,"gmtCreate":1632950152696,"gmtModify":1632950153088,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"So much good options! [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"So much good options! [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"So much good options! [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865339222","repostId":"2171984641","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3559581955535845","authorIdStr":"3559581955535845"},"content":"Yes. That is why I buy $SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$","text":"Yes. That is why I buy $SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$","html":"Yes. That is why I buy $SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862893372,"gmtCreate":1632865487416,"gmtModify":1632865487543,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Looks like we will need to cash&nbsp;up 🐯","listText":"Looks like we will need to cash&nbsp;up 🐯","text":"Looks like we will need to cash up 🐯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862893372","repostId":"1166571782","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166571782","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632787589,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166571782?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 08:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Dismisses Market's \"Strong Rebound\", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment<blockquote>摩根士丹利对市场“强劲反弹”不屑一顾，对即将到来的盈利令人失望仍然看跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166571782","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumb","content":"<p>For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumbling on Evergrande default fears, Wilson emerged from his faux-bull cocoon (havingraised his year-end S&amp;P price target from 3,900 to 4,000 in Augustin a note that reeked of disgust with what he was being told to do) and warned that an \"Ice is coming\", referring to a 20% drop in stocks as opposed to the more modest 10% correction envisioned in his \"fire\" scenario, saying that \"<b>the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction</b>\", a drop he expects will take place some time this fall.</p><p><blockquote>上周一短短几个小时内，摩根士丹利首席经济学家就觉得自己是对的：随着股市因恒大违约担忧而暴跌，威尔逊从他的假牛茧中走了出来（他在奥古斯丁将标准普尔年终目标价从 3,900 美元上调至 4,000 美元），并警告说“冰即将来临”，指的是股市下跌 20%，而不是他在“火灾”情景中设想的更温和的 10% 调整，他说“<b>“冰”情景开始看起来更有可能，并可能导致更具破坏性的结果——即20%以上的修正</b>”，他预计今年秋天的某个时候会出现下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87b7fac22f1a1f5db68fec641fc7528\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wilson also predicted that with earnings growth and PMIs set to drop, it would adversely impact forward PE multiples and by extension the S&amp;P.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊还预测，随着盈利增长和采购经理人指数下降，这将对远期市盈率产生不利影响，进而对标准普尔产生不利影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45afcf0068538b4f56bc85f42af9e52f\" tg-width=\"1233\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Well, what a difference 7 days makes: with Evergrande default fears now long forgotten with little to no offshore contagion,&nbsp;the S&amp;P is almost 150 points from its \"Evergrande Monday\" lows and once again pushing back toward all time highs (even if with a major rotation in the leadership as tech stocks are now sliding, having been replaced by value, cyclical and reopening names) in the process yet again foiling Wilson's bearish visions.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，7 天带来了多么大的不同：随着恒大违约担忧早已被遗忘，几乎没有离岸传染，标准普尔指数距离“恒大周一”低点近 150 点，并再次推回历史高点（即使随着科技股下滑，领导层出现重大轮换，已被价值、周期性和重新开放的名称所取代）在此过程中再次挫败了威尔逊的看跌愿景。</blockquote></p><p> So has the market's sharp post-opex bounce changed the mind of the chief strategist that this seemingly invincible market will never go down again more than just a token 5% move?</p><p><blockquote>那么，市场在运营支出后的大幅反弹是否改变了首席策略师的想法，即这个看似不可战胜的市场除了象征性的 5% 波动之外永远不会再次下跌？</blockquote></p><p> Today we got the answer in Wilson's latest weekly warm-up not, in which he makes it clear that his bearish outlook remains, and as he explains, \"our process tells us the risk-reward remains unattractive at the index level given slowing growth and rising rates. Meanwhile, price action can be interpreted bullishly or bearishly.&nbsp;<b>With 3Q earnings season likely to bring a much more muted outcome, we remain defensive in our positioning.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们在威尔逊最新的每周热身中得到了答案，他在热身中明确表示他的看跌前景仍然存在，正如他解释的那样，“我们的过程告诉我们，鉴于增长放缓和利率上升，风险回报在指数水平上仍然没有吸引力。与此同时，价格走势可以被解释为看涨或看跌。<b>由于第三季度财报季可能会带来更加平淡的结果，我们在定位上保持防御性。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p> We'll get to why in a second, but first Wilson - realizing that he would get a criticism for what many viewed as a premature victory lap - spends the first few paragraphs of his latest note going over the details of his analytical process. This is how he lays it out:</p><p><blockquote>我们稍后会明白为什么，但首先威尔逊——意识到他会因为许多人认为过早的胜利圈而受到批评——在他最新笔记的前几段中详细介绍了他的分析过程。他是这样说的：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Our equity strategy process has several key components. Most importantly, we focus on the fundamentals of growth and valuation to determine whether the overall market is attractive and which sectors and stocks look the best/worst.</b>The rate of change on growth is more important than the absolute level, and we use a market-based equity risk premium framework that works well as long as you apply the correct regime when using it. In that regard, we’re an avid student of market cycles and believe historical analogs can be helpful. For example, the mid cycle transition narrative that has worked so well this year is derived directly from our study of historical economic and market cycles.    <b>The final component we spend a lot of time on is price.</b>While most would call this technical analysis, we’d like to think we do it a little bit differently. Markets aren’t always efficient, but we believe they are often very good leading indicators for the fundamentals—the ultimate driver of value. This is especially true if one looks at the internal movements and relative strength of individual securities. In short,   <b>we find these internals to be much more helpful than simply looking at the major averages.</b>    <b>This year, we think the process has lived up to its promise quite well with the price action lining up nicely with the fundamental backdrop.</b>In short, the large cap quality leadership since March is signaling what we believe is about to happen—i.e., decelerating growth and tightening financial conditions. The question for investors is whether the price action has fully discounted those outcomes.  With that disclosure in hand, and with the clear understanding that at least in his view investors are not discounting any adverse outcomes at this point, Wilson proceeds to discuss the recent market action, noting that stocks<b>\"sold off hard last Monday on concerns about the Evergrande bankruptcy\"</b>and while he adds that it is the Morgan Stanley \"house view\" that it likely won’t lead to a major financial contagion, \"it will probably weigh on China growth for the next few quarters which means that the growth deceleration we are expecting could be a bit worse.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>我们的股权战略流程有几个关键组成部分。最重要的是，我们关注增长和估值的基本面，以确定整体市场是否有吸引力，以及哪些行业和股票看起来最好/最差。</b>增长率的变化率比绝对水平更重要，我们使用基于市场的股票风险溢价框架，只要您在使用时应用正确的制度，该框架就能很好地工作。在这方面，我们热衷于研究市场周期，并相信历史类比会有所帮助。例如，今年非常有效的中周期转型叙事直接来自我们对历史经济和市场周期的研究。<b>我们花费大量时间的最后一个组成部分是价格。</b>虽然大多数人会看涨期权这种技术分析，但我们认为我们的做法略有不同。市场并不总是有效的，但我们相信，市场往往是基本面--价值的最终驱动力--非常好的领先指标。如果看看个别证券的内部变动和相对强度，情况尤其如此。简而言之，<b>我们发现这些内部因素比简单地查看主要平均值更有帮助。</b><b>今年，我们认为这一过程很好地兑现了其承诺，价格走势与基本面背景非常吻合。</b>简而言之，自3月份以来的大盘股质量领先地位预示着我们认为即将发生的事情——即增长放缓和金融状况收紧。投资者面临的问题是价格走势是否完全打折了这些结果。有了这一披露，并且清楚地认识到，至少在他看来，投资者目前并没有忽视任何不利结果，威尔逊继续讨论最近的市场走势，并指出股票<b>“上周一因担心恒大破产而大幅抛售”</b>虽然他补充说，摩根士丹利的 “众议院观点 ”认为，这可能不会导致重大的金融传染，但 “这可能会拖累中国未来几个季度的经济增长，这意味着我们预期的经济增长放缓可能会更严重一些”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The other reason Wilson suggests was behind the market weakness early last week \"likely had to do with concern about the Fed articulating its plans to taper asset purchases later this year and perhaps even move up the timing of rate hikes to next year. On that score, the Fed did not disappoint as they pretty much told us to expect the taper to begin in December.<b>The surprise was the speed in which they expect to be done tapering—by mid 2022.</b>This is about a quarter sooner than the market had been anticipating and does move up the odds for a rate hike in 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊认为，上周早些时候市场疲软背后的另一个原因“可能与对美联储在今年晚些时候阐述其缩减资产购买计划的担忧有关，甚至可能将加息时间提前到明年。在这一点上，美联储没有让人失望，因为他们几乎告诉我们预计缩减规模将于12月开始。<b>令人惊讶的是他们预计缩减规模的速度——到 2022 年中期。</b>这比市场预期提前了约四分之一，确实增加了 2022 年加息的可能性。”</blockquote></p><p> Curiously last week's rally happened in the aftermath of the market's perplexing kneejerk response to the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when stocks rallied even as bonds sold off sharply, particularly at the back end. Real 10-year yields were up 11bps in 2 days and are now up 31bps in just 8 weeks (Exhibit 1). That according to Wilson is \"tightening of financial conditions for sure\" and should weigh on PEs overall but it also has big implications for what should work at the sector/style level (Exhibit 2).</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，上周的反弹发生在市场对周三美联储会议做出令人困惑的下意识反应之后，当时尽管债券大幅抛售，尤其是在后端，股市仍反弹。实际10年期国债收益率在2天内上升了11个基点，现在在短短8周内上升了31个基点（图表1）。根据威尔逊的说法，这“肯定是金融状况的收紧”，应该会对整体私募股权基金造成压力，但它也对行业/风格层面的表现产生了重大影响（图表2）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f0bb937e8d564694c06b7e1362bd81\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In short, Wilson digs in and claims that higher real rates should mean lower P/Es overall which likely means lower S&amp;P 500, thus validating his bearish view which still sees the S&amp;P dropping some 20% from its current perch to hit 4,000 by year end. However, he concedes, \"it may also mean value over growth and small caps over Nasdaq even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，Wilson深入探讨并声称，较高的实际利率应该意味着整体市盈率较低，这可能意味着标普500较低，从而验证了他的看跌观点，即标准普尔指数仍将从目前的水平下跌约20%，到年底达到4000点。然而，他承认，“即使整体股市走低，这也可能意味着价值高于增长，小盘股高于纳斯达克。”</blockquote></p><p> Which brings us to the key question we spent quite some time discussing last week, namely<b>why did stocks rally so much into the end of the week</b>on what Wilson says are odds that growth will decelerate more than expected from Evergrande and financial conditions may tighten faster?</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了我们上周花了相当多时间讨论的关键问题，即<b>为什么股市在周末上涨如此之多</b>威尔逊表示，恒大的增长放缓幅度将超过预期，财务状况可能会更快收紧？</blockquote></p><p> Here Wilson is at least honest - as he puts it - and says \"we’re not sure but we think this may be a time when the markets are playing tricks on investors and even setting a bit of a trap.\" Actually it's simpler than that and has to do with thegamma reversal and technical flows we pointed out last week, but one has to be a \"greek geek\" - like Nomura's Charlie McElligott - to get that.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，威尔逊至少是诚实的--正如他所说--他说：“我们不确定，但我们认为这可能是市场在捉弄投资者，甚至设置一点陷阱的时候。”实际上，它比这更简单，与我们上周指出的伽马反转和技术流程有关，但人们必须是一个“希腊极客”——比如野村证券的查理·麦切利戈特——才能理解这一点。</blockquote></p><p> The other explanation proposed by Wilson is \"that investors were somewhat positioned for bad news going into the Fed meeting and the actual event simply served as a relief that it didn’t lead lower prices. This price action drove many investors to chase on Thursday for fear of missing out.<b>In short, don’t underestimate the power of price to determine how investors interpret the facts.</b>Just like negative price action can get people to sell the lows, positive price action can force people to buy\", he concludes.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊提出的另一种解释是：“投资者在美联储会议上对坏消息有所准备，而实际事件只是让人松了一口气，因为它没有导致价格下跌。这一价格走势促使许多投资者在周四追涨，生怕错过机会。<b>简而言之，不要低估价格在决定投资者如何解读事实方面的力量。</b>正如负价格行为可以让人们低价抛售一样，正价格行为也可以迫使人们买入”，他总结道。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever the reason for the initial bounce, it quickly accelerated and there was \"a lot of excitement last Thursday when stocks rallied sharply back above the 50 day moving average, a key barometer for many and a key level of support throughout this year for the S&amp;P 500.\" That this happened when the 50DMA was broken \"on near record levels of volume in both the cash and derivatives markets\" only punctuated the strength of the rebound. By Friday, that moving average had been reclaimed and closed above it for the week, an important technical win as even Wilson admits. However, he then adds, from his vantage point, \"the very well defined uptrend that has been established over the past year was broken and not reclaimed. Instead, it looks like the rally from Wednesday to Friday was simply \"filling the gap\" created from Monday's break.\"</p><p><blockquote>无论最初反弹的原因是什么，反弹很快就加速了，“上周四，当股市大幅反弹至 50 日移动平均线上方时，人们非常兴奋，这对许多人来说是一个关键晴雨表，也是标普500今年全年的一个关键支撑位。”当 50DMA 被突破“现金和衍生品市场的交易量均接近创纪录水平”时，这种情况就发生了，这只会削弱反弹的强度。到周五，移动平均线已被收复，并在本周收于该平均线之上，就连威尔逊也承认，这是一次重要的技术胜利。然而，他随后补充道，从他的有利位置来看，“过去一年建立的非常明确的上升趋势被打破了，并且没有重新夺回。相反，看起来周三到周五的反弹只是“填补”周一休息造成的缺口。”</blockquote></p><p> His conclusion on upcoming market action will hardly come as a surprise to those who have followed Wilson's progressive pessimism across 2021: pointing to the market's inability to recover its prior trendline, he says \"this leaves the technical picture very uncertain in our view and one can now break either way. With our fundamental view skewing poorly at the moment, we lean to the bearish outcome.\"</p><p><blockquote>对于那些在 2021 年关注威尔逊逐渐悲观情绪的人来说，他对即将到来的市场行动的结论几乎不会感到惊讶：他指出市场无法恢复之前的趋势线，他表示：“这使得我们认为技术面非常不确定，现在可以打破任何一方。由于我们的基本面观点目前严重扭曲，我们倾向于看跌结果。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fc56e35f140c96104f8d8aa0826fd3\" tg-width=\"1100\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Getting back to his process, Wilson then says that he has high conviction that \"earnings growth is likely to decelerate more than what the current consensus is forecasting.\" Furthermore, he thinks the market is starting to agree with that view and points to market breadth as a good leading indicator for earnings revision breadth where he says \"direction is clear\" and pointing to the newly shrinking market breadth, he reminds readers that earnings revision breadth is a good leading indicator for the overall market.</p><p><blockquote>回到他的流程，威尔逊随后表示，他坚信“盈利增长可能会比当前共识预测的放缓幅度更大”。此外，他认为市场开始同意这一观点，并指出市场广度是盈利修正广度的良好领先指标，他表示“方向很明确”，并指出新收缩的市场广度，他提醒读者盈利修正广度是整体市场的良好领先指标。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It will therefore hardly come as a surprise that with Wilson still clearly bearish, his advice to clients is \"<b>don’t get too caught up in last week’s strong rebound from Monday’s sharp sell off\"</b>which he views as a clean break of the uptrend and a filling of the gap created from Monday's crack. And with the technical picture murky, \"<b>that's a time to trust the fundamental and cycle analyses which suggest lower equity prices ahead\"</b>and as growth decelerates and financial conditions tighten, valuations are likely to fall from their lofty levels.</p><p><blockquote>因此，威尔逊仍然明显看空，他给客户的建议是“<b>不要被上周从周一的大幅抛售中强劲反弹所迷惑”</b>他认为这是对上升趋势的彻底打破，也是对周一裂缝造成的缺口的填补。由于技术方面的情况不明朗，”<b>现在是相信基本面和周期分析表明未来股价走低的时候了”</b>随着经济增长放缓和金融状况收紧，估值可能会从高位回落。</blockquote></p><p> * * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p> With all that in mind, Wilson goes back to his core fundamental thesis which is simple: after a blockbuster Q2 season, earnings are set to drop substantially as a result of the margin compression we discussed most recently over the weekend, to wit:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，威尔逊回到了他的核心基本论点，这个论点很简单：在经历了一个轰动一时的第二季度之后，由于我们最近在周末讨论的利润率压缩，盈利将大幅下降，也就是说：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Since the second quarter of 2020 earnings results have come in much higher than consensus forecasts</b>. Earnings beats ranged from 14% - 22% over this period while the median beat rate since 2008 is only 5%...We do not think companies will continue to beat at such an unprecedented rate and believe 3Q could see a material change in the more recent trend as supply chain issues and labor shortages pose a risk to both top line and margins.  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e643723cfa540ad52a1dcebcba24f3\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><b>自 2020 年第二季度以来，盈利结果远高于市场普遍预期</b>在此期间，盈利超出率在 14% 至 22% 之间，而自 2008 年以来的中值超出率仅为 5%……我们认为公司不会继续以如此前所未有的速度超出预期，并相信第三季度可能会出现重大变化近期趋势，因为供应链问题和劳动力短缺对营收和利润率都构成风险。</blockquote></p><p>   We looked at how 3Q earnings estimate revisions have trended at the industry group and sector level. Significant cuts have occurred in insurance, capital goods and transportation.   <b>Consumer Durables is the only area that has seen significant positive revisions at the industry group level. 3Q S&amp;P 500 estimates have fallen by 77 bps over past 4 weeks. We expect more downside.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5496394c7a42ab136f68ba74c64cf83\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6beae58fd458a45024d160d45b4684\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>我们研究了第三季度盈利预测修正在行业集团和行业层面的趋势。保险、资本货物和运输都出现了大幅削减。<b>耐用消费品是行业集团层面唯一出现重大积极修正的领域。过去 4 周内，第三季度标普500预期下降了 77 个基点。我们预计会有更多的负面影响。</b></blockquote></p><p> No surprises there, as the margin compression story is a familiar one (\"Margins Crushed As Producer Prices Explode At Record Pace In July\"). To Wilson, however, this is the story and one which the market refuses to even consider:</p><p><blockquote>这并不奇怪，因为利润率压缩的故事是一个熟悉的故事（“随着 7 月份生产者价格以创纪录的速度爆炸，利润率被压缩”）。然而，对于威尔逊来说，这是一个故事，也是一个市场甚至拒绝考虑的故事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>2022 consensus margin estimates are historically lofty...</b>we examine the risks to margins in coming quarters through two different top down approaches. The spread between GDP growth and wage growth correlates fairly closely with operating margins over time. Based on our economists' estimates<b>, this spread should decelerate in coming quarters, which suggests margins should contract, not expand as bottom-up consensus expects</b>.</p><p><blockquote><b>2022 年共识利润率估计处于历史高位……</b>我们通过两种不同的自上而下的方法来研究未来几个季度的利润率风险。随着时间的推移，GDP增长和工资增长之间的利差与营业利润率密切相关。根据我们经济学家的估计<b>这种利差应该会在未来几个季度放缓，这表明利润率应该会收缩，而不是像自下而上的共识预期那样扩大</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e80ec048b5856ebf2159d1d9d0151334\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Further, corporate transcript mentions of \"cost pressures\" and related terms are historically elevated. When this has happened in the past, margins have consolidated.</p><p><blockquote>此外，公司成绩单中对“成本压力”和相关术语的提及历来较高。当这种情况在过去发生时，利润率已经巩固。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c8fcfa4bb23d953d8c2079bc1a0ec5\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson's final bearish point is that companies are reaching the limit on how much of rising input costs they can pass on to consumers. As he puts it, while \"many investors that we speak to are optimistic about corporates' ability to pass on cost through pricing and protect margins\" he would caution that \"prices in several consumer end markets are already at a level that is inhibiting demand. We think the risk of this dynamic (high prices leading to demand destruction) spreading to other areas of consumer demand is especially elevated because goods consumption is already so far above trend—<b>in other words, high prices are that much more of a deterrent given households have already overconsumed in many areas.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>威尔逊的最后一个悲观观点是，企业已经达到了将不断上涨的投入成本转嫁给消费者的极限。正如他所说，虽然“我们采访的许多投资者对企业通过定价转嫁成本和保护利润率的能力持乐观态度”，但他会警告说，“几个消费终端市场的价格已经处于抑制需求的水平。我们认为，这种动态（高价格导致需求破坏）蔓延到其他消费需求领域的风险尤其高，因为商品消费已经远远高于趋势——<b>换句话说，考虑到许多地区的家庭已经过度消费，高价格更具威慑力。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216bbe5eae73445b35a9152e741dccef\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Translation: absent another multi-trillion stimmy - and thanks to the chaos in the democratic party we know one is unlikely to come - Wilson's call for a 20% drop in stocks in the next few months remains intact.</p><p><blockquote>翻译：如果没有另一场数万亿的骚动——由于民主党内部的混乱，我们知道不太可能发生——威尔逊关于未来几个月股市下跌 20% 的看涨期权仍然完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Dismisses Market's \"Strong Rebound\", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment<blockquote>摩根士丹利对市场“强劲反弹”不屑一顾，对即将到来的盈利令人失望仍然看跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-28 08:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumbling on Evergrande default fears, Wilson emerged from his faux-bull cocoon (havingraised his year-end S&amp;P price target from 3,900 to 4,000 in Augustin a note that reeked of disgust with what he was being told to do) and warned that an \"Ice is coming\", referring to a 20% drop in stocks as opposed to the more modest 10% correction envisioned in his \"fire\" scenario, saying that \"<b>the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction</b>\", a drop he expects will take place some time this fall.</p><p><blockquote>上周一短短几个小时内，摩根士丹利首席经济学家就觉得自己是对的：随着股市因恒大违约担忧而暴跌，威尔逊从他的假牛茧中走了出来（他在奥古斯丁将标准普尔年终目标价从 3,900 美元上调至 4,000 美元），并警告说“冰即将来临”，指的是股市下跌 20%，而不是他在“火灾”情景中设想的更温和的 10% 调整，他说“<b>“冰”情景开始看起来更有可能，并可能导致更具破坏性的结果——即20%以上的修正</b>”，他预计今年秋天的某个时候会出现下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87b7fac22f1a1f5db68fec641fc7528\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wilson also predicted that with earnings growth and PMIs set to drop, it would adversely impact forward PE multiples and by extension the S&amp;P.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊还预测，随着盈利增长和采购经理人指数下降，这将对远期市盈率产生不利影响，进而对标准普尔产生不利影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45afcf0068538b4f56bc85f42af9e52f\" tg-width=\"1233\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Well, what a difference 7 days makes: with Evergrande default fears now long forgotten with little to no offshore contagion,&nbsp;the S&amp;P is almost 150 points from its \"Evergrande Monday\" lows and once again pushing back toward all time highs (even if with a major rotation in the leadership as tech stocks are now sliding, having been replaced by value, cyclical and reopening names) in the process yet again foiling Wilson's bearish visions.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，7 天带来了多么大的不同：随着恒大违约担忧早已被遗忘，几乎没有离岸传染，标准普尔指数距离“恒大周一”低点近 150 点，并再次推回历史高点（即使随着科技股下滑，领导层出现重大轮换，已被价值、周期性和重新开放的名称所取代）在此过程中再次挫败了威尔逊的看跌愿景。</blockquote></p><p> So has the market's sharp post-opex bounce changed the mind of the chief strategist that this seemingly invincible market will never go down again more than just a token 5% move?</p><p><blockquote>那么，市场在运营支出后的大幅反弹是否改变了首席策略师的想法，即这个看似不可战胜的市场除了象征性的 5% 波动之外永远不会再次下跌？</blockquote></p><p> Today we got the answer in Wilson's latest weekly warm-up not, in which he makes it clear that his bearish outlook remains, and as he explains, \"our process tells us the risk-reward remains unattractive at the index level given slowing growth and rising rates. Meanwhile, price action can be interpreted bullishly or bearishly.&nbsp;<b>With 3Q earnings season likely to bring a much more muted outcome, we remain defensive in our positioning.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们在威尔逊最新的每周热身中得到了答案，他在热身中明确表示他的看跌前景仍然存在，正如他解释的那样，“我们的过程告诉我们，鉴于增长放缓和利率上升，风险回报在指数水平上仍然没有吸引力。与此同时，价格走势可以被解释为看涨或看跌。<b>由于第三季度财报季可能会带来更加平淡的结果，我们在定位上保持防御性。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p> We'll get to why in a second, but first Wilson - realizing that he would get a criticism for what many viewed as a premature victory lap - spends the first few paragraphs of his latest note going over the details of his analytical process. This is how he lays it out:</p><p><blockquote>我们稍后会明白为什么，但首先威尔逊——意识到他会因为许多人认为过早的胜利圈而受到批评——在他最新笔记的前几段中详细介绍了他的分析过程。他是这样说的：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Our equity strategy process has several key components. Most importantly, we focus on the fundamentals of growth and valuation to determine whether the overall market is attractive and which sectors and stocks look the best/worst.</b>The rate of change on growth is more important than the absolute level, and we use a market-based equity risk premium framework that works well as long as you apply the correct regime when using it. In that regard, we’re an avid student of market cycles and believe historical analogs can be helpful. For example, the mid cycle transition narrative that has worked so well this year is derived directly from our study of historical economic and market cycles.    <b>The final component we spend a lot of time on is price.</b>While most would call this technical analysis, we’d like to think we do it a little bit differently. Markets aren’t always efficient, but we believe they are often very good leading indicators for the fundamentals—the ultimate driver of value. This is especially true if one looks at the internal movements and relative strength of individual securities. In short,   <b>we find these internals to be much more helpful than simply looking at the major averages.</b>    <b>This year, we think the process has lived up to its promise quite well with the price action lining up nicely with the fundamental backdrop.</b>In short, the large cap quality leadership since March is signaling what we believe is about to happen—i.e., decelerating growth and tightening financial conditions. The question for investors is whether the price action has fully discounted those outcomes.  With that disclosure in hand, and with the clear understanding that at least in his view investors are not discounting any adverse outcomes at this point, Wilson proceeds to discuss the recent market action, noting that stocks<b>\"sold off hard last Monday on concerns about the Evergrande bankruptcy\"</b>and while he adds that it is the Morgan Stanley \"house view\" that it likely won’t lead to a major financial contagion, \"it will probably weigh on China growth for the next few quarters which means that the growth deceleration we are expecting could be a bit worse.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>我们的股权战略流程有几个关键组成部分。最重要的是，我们关注增长和估值的基本面，以确定整体市场是否有吸引力，以及哪些行业和股票看起来最好/最差。</b>增长率的变化率比绝对水平更重要，我们使用基于市场的股票风险溢价框架，只要您在使用时应用正确的制度，该框架就能很好地工作。在这方面，我们热衷于研究市场周期，并相信历史类比会有所帮助。例如，今年非常有效的中周期转型叙事直接来自我们对历史经济和市场周期的研究。<b>我们花费大量时间的最后一个组成部分是价格。</b>虽然大多数人会看涨期权这种技术分析，但我们认为我们的做法略有不同。市场并不总是有效的，但我们相信，市场往往是基本面--价值的最终驱动力--非常好的领先指标。如果看看个别证券的内部变动和相对强度，情况尤其如此。简而言之，<b>我们发现这些内部因素比简单地查看主要平均值更有帮助。</b><b>今年，我们认为这一过程很好地兑现了其承诺，价格走势与基本面背景非常吻合。</b>简而言之，自3月份以来的大盘股质量领先地位预示着我们认为即将发生的事情——即增长放缓和金融状况收紧。投资者面临的问题是价格走势是否完全打折了这些结果。有了这一披露，并且清楚地认识到，至少在他看来，投资者目前并没有忽视任何不利结果，威尔逊继续讨论最近的市场走势，并指出股票<b>“上周一因担心恒大破产而大幅抛售”</b>虽然他补充说，摩根士丹利的 “众议院观点 ”认为，这可能不会导致重大的金融传染，但 “这可能会拖累中国未来几个季度的经济增长，这意味着我们预期的经济增长放缓可能会更严重一些”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The other reason Wilson suggests was behind the market weakness early last week \"likely had to do with concern about the Fed articulating its plans to taper asset purchases later this year and perhaps even move up the timing of rate hikes to next year. On that score, the Fed did not disappoint as they pretty much told us to expect the taper to begin in December.<b>The surprise was the speed in which they expect to be done tapering—by mid 2022.</b>This is about a quarter sooner than the market had been anticipating and does move up the odds for a rate hike in 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊认为，上周早些时候市场疲软背后的另一个原因“可能与对美联储在今年晚些时候阐述其缩减资产购买计划的担忧有关，甚至可能将加息时间提前到明年。在这一点上，美联储没有让人失望，因为他们几乎告诉我们预计缩减规模将于12月开始。<b>令人惊讶的是他们预计缩减规模的速度——到 2022 年中期。</b>这比市场预期提前了约四分之一，确实增加了 2022 年加息的可能性。”</blockquote></p><p> Curiously last week's rally happened in the aftermath of the market's perplexing kneejerk response to the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when stocks rallied even as bonds sold off sharply, particularly at the back end. Real 10-year yields were up 11bps in 2 days and are now up 31bps in just 8 weeks (Exhibit 1). That according to Wilson is \"tightening of financial conditions for sure\" and should weigh on PEs overall but it also has big implications for what should work at the sector/style level (Exhibit 2).</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，上周的反弹发生在市场对周三美联储会议做出令人困惑的下意识反应之后，当时尽管债券大幅抛售，尤其是在后端，股市仍反弹。实际10年期国债收益率在2天内上升了11个基点，现在在短短8周内上升了31个基点（图表1）。根据威尔逊的说法，这“肯定是金融状况的收紧”，应该会对整体私募股权基金造成压力，但它也对行业/风格层面的表现产生了重大影响（图表2）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f0bb937e8d564694c06b7e1362bd81\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In short, Wilson digs in and claims that higher real rates should mean lower P/Es overall which likely means lower S&amp;P 500, thus validating his bearish view which still sees the S&amp;P dropping some 20% from its current perch to hit 4,000 by year end. However, he concedes, \"it may also mean value over growth and small caps over Nasdaq even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，Wilson深入探讨并声称，较高的实际利率应该意味着整体市盈率较低，这可能意味着标普500较低，从而验证了他的看跌观点，即标准普尔指数仍将从目前的水平下跌约20%，到年底达到4000点。然而，他承认，“即使整体股市走低，这也可能意味着价值高于增长，小盘股高于纳斯达克。”</blockquote></p><p> Which brings us to the key question we spent quite some time discussing last week, namely<b>why did stocks rally so much into the end of the week</b>on what Wilson says are odds that growth will decelerate more than expected from Evergrande and financial conditions may tighten faster?</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了我们上周花了相当多时间讨论的关键问题，即<b>为什么股市在周末上涨如此之多</b>威尔逊表示，恒大的增长放缓幅度将超过预期，财务状况可能会更快收紧？</blockquote></p><p> Here Wilson is at least honest - as he puts it - and says \"we’re not sure but we think this may be a time when the markets are playing tricks on investors and even setting a bit of a trap.\" Actually it's simpler than that and has to do with thegamma reversal and technical flows we pointed out last week, but one has to be a \"greek geek\" - like Nomura's Charlie McElligott - to get that.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，威尔逊至少是诚实的--正如他所说--他说：“我们不确定，但我们认为这可能是市场在捉弄投资者，甚至设置一点陷阱的时候。”实际上，它比这更简单，与我们上周指出的伽马反转和技术流程有关，但人们必须是一个“希腊极客”——比如野村证券的查理·麦切利戈特——才能理解这一点。</blockquote></p><p> The other explanation proposed by Wilson is \"that investors were somewhat positioned for bad news going into the Fed meeting and the actual event simply served as a relief that it didn’t lead lower prices. This price action drove many investors to chase on Thursday for fear of missing out.<b>In short, don’t underestimate the power of price to determine how investors interpret the facts.</b>Just like negative price action can get people to sell the lows, positive price action can force people to buy\", he concludes.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊提出的另一种解释是：“投资者在美联储会议上对坏消息有所准备，而实际事件只是让人松了一口气，因为它没有导致价格下跌。这一价格走势促使许多投资者在周四追涨，生怕错过机会。<b>简而言之，不要低估价格在决定投资者如何解读事实方面的力量。</b>正如负价格行为可以让人们低价抛售一样，正价格行为也可以迫使人们买入”，他总结道。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever the reason for the initial bounce, it quickly accelerated and there was \"a lot of excitement last Thursday when stocks rallied sharply back above the 50 day moving average, a key barometer for many and a key level of support throughout this year for the S&amp;P 500.\" That this happened when the 50DMA was broken \"on near record levels of volume in both the cash and derivatives markets\" only punctuated the strength of the rebound. By Friday, that moving average had been reclaimed and closed above it for the week, an important technical win as even Wilson admits. However, he then adds, from his vantage point, \"the very well defined uptrend that has been established over the past year was broken and not reclaimed. Instead, it looks like the rally from Wednesday to Friday was simply \"filling the gap\" created from Monday's break.\"</p><p><blockquote>无论最初反弹的原因是什么，反弹很快就加速了，“上周四，当股市大幅反弹至 50 日移动平均线上方时，人们非常兴奋，这对许多人来说是一个关键晴雨表，也是标普500今年全年的一个关键支撑位。”当 50DMA 被突破“现金和衍生品市场的交易量均接近创纪录水平”时，这种情况就发生了，这只会削弱反弹的强度。到周五，移动平均线已被收复，并在本周收于该平均线之上，就连威尔逊也承认，这是一次重要的技术胜利。然而，他随后补充道，从他的有利位置来看，“过去一年建立的非常明确的上升趋势被打破了，并且没有重新夺回。相反，看起来周三到周五的反弹只是“填补”周一休息造成的缺口。”</blockquote></p><p> His conclusion on upcoming market action will hardly come as a surprise to those who have followed Wilson's progressive pessimism across 2021: pointing to the market's inability to recover its prior trendline, he says \"this leaves the technical picture very uncertain in our view and one can now break either way. With our fundamental view skewing poorly at the moment, we lean to the bearish outcome.\"</p><p><blockquote>对于那些在 2021 年关注威尔逊逐渐悲观情绪的人来说，他对即将到来的市场行动的结论几乎不会感到惊讶：他指出市场无法恢复之前的趋势线，他表示：“这使得我们认为技术面非常不确定，现在可以打破任何一方。由于我们的基本面观点目前严重扭曲，我们倾向于看跌结果。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fc56e35f140c96104f8d8aa0826fd3\" tg-width=\"1100\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Getting back to his process, Wilson then says that he has high conviction that \"earnings growth is likely to decelerate more than what the current consensus is forecasting.\" Furthermore, he thinks the market is starting to agree with that view and points to market breadth as a good leading indicator for earnings revision breadth where he says \"direction is clear\" and pointing to the newly shrinking market breadth, he reminds readers that earnings revision breadth is a good leading indicator for the overall market.</p><p><blockquote>回到他的流程，威尔逊随后表示，他坚信“盈利增长可能会比当前共识预测的放缓幅度更大”。此外，他认为市场开始同意这一观点，并指出市场广度是盈利修正广度的良好领先指标，他表示“方向很明确”，并指出新收缩的市场广度，他提醒读者盈利修正广度是整体市场的良好领先指标。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It will therefore hardly come as a surprise that with Wilson still clearly bearish, his advice to clients is \"<b>don’t get too caught up in last week’s strong rebound from Monday’s sharp sell off\"</b>which he views as a clean break of the uptrend and a filling of the gap created from Monday's crack. And with the technical picture murky, \"<b>that's a time to trust the fundamental and cycle analyses which suggest lower equity prices ahead\"</b>and as growth decelerates and financial conditions tighten, valuations are likely to fall from their lofty levels.</p><p><blockquote>因此，威尔逊仍然明显看空，他给客户的建议是“<b>不要被上周从周一的大幅抛售中强劲反弹所迷惑”</b>他认为这是对上升趋势的彻底打破，也是对周一裂缝造成的缺口的填补。由于技术方面的情况不明朗，”<b>现在是相信基本面和周期分析表明未来股价走低的时候了”</b>随着经济增长放缓和金融状况收紧，估值可能会从高位回落。</blockquote></p><p> * * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p> With all that in mind, Wilson goes back to his core fundamental thesis which is simple: after a blockbuster Q2 season, earnings are set to drop substantially as a result of the margin compression we discussed most recently over the weekend, to wit:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，威尔逊回到了他的核心基本论点，这个论点很简单：在经历了一个轰动一时的第二季度之后，由于我们最近在周末讨论的利润率压缩，盈利将大幅下降，也就是说：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Since the second quarter of 2020 earnings results have come in much higher than consensus forecasts</b>. Earnings beats ranged from 14% - 22% over this period while the median beat rate since 2008 is only 5%...We do not think companies will continue to beat at such an unprecedented rate and believe 3Q could see a material change in the more recent trend as supply chain issues and labor shortages pose a risk to both top line and margins.  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e643723cfa540ad52a1dcebcba24f3\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><b>自 2020 年第二季度以来，盈利结果远高于市场普遍预期</b>在此期间，盈利超出率在 14% 至 22% 之间，而自 2008 年以来的中值超出率仅为 5%……我们认为公司不会继续以如此前所未有的速度超出预期，并相信第三季度可能会出现重大变化近期趋势，因为供应链问题和劳动力短缺对营收和利润率都构成风险。</blockquote></p><p>   We looked at how 3Q earnings estimate revisions have trended at the industry group and sector level. Significant cuts have occurred in insurance, capital goods and transportation.   <b>Consumer Durables is the only area that has seen significant positive revisions at the industry group level. 3Q S&amp;P 500 estimates have fallen by 77 bps over past 4 weeks. We expect more downside.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5496394c7a42ab136f68ba74c64cf83\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6beae58fd458a45024d160d45b4684\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>我们研究了第三季度盈利预测修正在行业集团和行业层面的趋势。保险、资本货物和运输都出现了大幅削减。<b>耐用消费品是行业集团层面唯一出现重大积极修正的领域。过去 4 周内，第三季度标普500预期下降了 77 个基点。我们预计会有更多的负面影响。</b></blockquote></p><p> No surprises there, as the margin compression story is a familiar one (\"Margins Crushed As Producer Prices Explode At Record Pace In July\"). To Wilson, however, this is the story and one which the market refuses to even consider:</p><p><blockquote>这并不奇怪，因为利润率压缩的故事是一个熟悉的故事（“随着 7 月份生产者价格以创纪录的速度爆炸，利润率被压缩”）。然而，对于威尔逊来说，这是一个故事，也是一个市场甚至拒绝考虑的故事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>2022 consensus margin estimates are historically lofty...</b>we examine the risks to margins in coming quarters through two different top down approaches. The spread between GDP growth and wage growth correlates fairly closely with operating margins over time. Based on our economists' estimates<b>, this spread should decelerate in coming quarters, which suggests margins should contract, not expand as bottom-up consensus expects</b>.</p><p><blockquote><b>2022 年共识利润率估计处于历史高位……</b>我们通过两种不同的自上而下的方法来研究未来几个季度的利润率风险。随着时间的推移，GDP增长和工资增长之间的利差与营业利润率密切相关。根据我们经济学家的估计<b>这种利差应该会在未来几个季度放缓，这表明利润率应该会收缩，而不是像自下而上的共识预期那样扩大</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e80ec048b5856ebf2159d1d9d0151334\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Further, corporate transcript mentions of \"cost pressures\" and related terms are historically elevated. When this has happened in the past, margins have consolidated.</p><p><blockquote>此外，公司成绩单中对“成本压力”和相关术语的提及历来较高。当这种情况在过去发生时，利润率已经巩固。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c8fcfa4bb23d953d8c2079bc1a0ec5\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson's final bearish point is that companies are reaching the limit on how much of rising input costs they can pass on to consumers. As he puts it, while \"many investors that we speak to are optimistic about corporates' ability to pass on cost through pricing and protect margins\" he would caution that \"prices in several consumer end markets are already at a level that is inhibiting demand. We think the risk of this dynamic (high prices leading to demand destruction) spreading to other areas of consumer demand is especially elevated because goods consumption is already so far above trend—<b>in other words, high prices are that much more of a deterrent given households have already overconsumed in many areas.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>威尔逊的最后一个悲观观点是，企业已经达到了将不断上涨的投入成本转嫁给消费者的极限。正如他所说，虽然“我们采访的许多投资者对企业通过定价转嫁成本和保护利润率的能力持乐观态度”，但他会警告说，“几个消费终端市场的价格已经处于抑制需求的水平。我们认为，这种动态（高价格导致需求破坏）蔓延到其他消费需求领域的风险尤其高，因为商品消费已经远远高于趋势——<b>换句话说，考虑到许多地区的家庭已经过度消费，高价格更具威慑力。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216bbe5eae73445b35a9152e741dccef\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Translation: absent another multi-trillion stimmy - and thanks to the chaos in the democratic party we know one is unlikely to come - Wilson's call for a 20% drop in stocks in the next few months remains intact.</p><p><blockquote>翻译：如果没有另一场数万亿的骚动——由于民主党内部的混乱，我们知道不太可能发生——威尔逊关于未来几个月股市下跌 20% 的看涨期权仍然完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-dismisses-strong-rebound-remains-bearish-coming-earnings-disappointment\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-dismisses-strong-rebound-remains-bearish-coming-earnings-disappointment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166571782","content_text":"For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumbling on Evergrande default fears, Wilson emerged from his faux-bull cocoon (havingraised his year-end S&P price target from 3,900 to 4,000 in Augustin a note that reeked of disgust with what he was being told to do) and warned that an \"Ice is coming\", referring to a 20% drop in stocks as opposed to the more modest 10% correction envisioned in his \"fire\" scenario, saying that \"the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction\", a drop he expects will take place some time this fall.\nWilson also predicted that with earnings growth and PMIs set to drop, it would adversely impact forward PE multiples and by extension the S&P.\n\nWell, what a difference 7 days makes: with Evergrande default fears now long forgotten with little to no offshore contagion, the S&P is almost 150 points from its \"Evergrande Monday\" lows and once again pushing back toward all time highs (even if with a major rotation in the leadership as tech stocks are now sliding, having been replaced by value, cyclical and reopening names) in the process yet again foiling Wilson's bearish visions.\nSo has the market's sharp post-opex bounce changed the mind of the chief strategist that this seemingly invincible market will never go down again more than just a token 5% move?\nToday we got the answer in Wilson's latest weekly warm-up not, in which he makes it clear that his bearish outlook remains, and as he explains, \"our process tells us the risk-reward remains unattractive at the index level given slowing growth and rising rates. Meanwhile, price action can be interpreted bullishly or bearishly. With 3Q earnings season likely to bring a much more muted outcome, we remain defensive in our positioning.\"\nWe'll get to why in a second, but first Wilson - realizing that he would get a criticism for what many viewed as a premature victory lap - spends the first few paragraphs of his latest note going over the details of his analytical process. This is how he lays it out:\n\nOur equity strategy process has several key components. Most importantly, we focus on the fundamentals of growth and valuation to determine whether the overall market is attractive and which sectors and stocks look the best/worst.The rate of change on growth is more important than the absolute level, and we use a market-based equity risk premium framework that works well as long as you apply the correct regime when using it. In that regard, we’re an avid student of market cycles and believe historical analogs can be helpful. For example, the mid cycle transition narrative that has worked so well this year is derived directly from our study of historical economic and market cycles.\n\n\nThe final component we spend a lot of time on is price.While most would call this technical analysis, we’d like to think we do it a little bit differently. Markets aren’t always efficient, but we believe they are often very good leading indicators for the fundamentals—the ultimate driver of value. This is especially true if one looks at the internal movements and relative strength of individual securities. In short, \n we find these internals to be much more helpful than simply looking at the major averages.\n\n\nThis year, we think the process has lived up to its promise quite well with the price action lining up nicely with the fundamental backdrop.In short, the large cap quality leadership since March is signaling what we believe is about to happen—i.e., decelerating growth and tightening financial conditions. The question for investors is whether the price action has fully discounted those outcomes.\n\nWith that disclosure in hand, and with the clear understanding that at least in his view investors are not discounting any adverse outcomes at this point, Wilson proceeds to discuss the recent market action, noting that stocks\"sold off hard last Monday on concerns about the Evergrande bankruptcy\"and while he adds that it is the Morgan Stanley \"house view\" that it likely won’t lead to a major financial contagion, \"it will probably weigh on China growth for the next few quarters which means that the growth deceleration we are expecting could be a bit worse.\"\nThe other reason Wilson suggests was behind the market weakness early last week \"likely had to do with concern about the Fed articulating its plans to taper asset purchases later this year and perhaps even move up the timing of rate hikes to next year. On that score, the Fed did not disappoint as they pretty much told us to expect the taper to begin in December.The surprise was the speed in which they expect to be done tapering—by mid 2022.This is about a quarter sooner than the market had been anticipating and does move up the odds for a rate hike in 2022.\"\nCuriously last week's rally happened in the aftermath of the market's perplexing kneejerk response to the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when stocks rallied even as bonds sold off sharply, particularly at the back end. Real 10-year yields were up 11bps in 2 days and are now up 31bps in just 8 weeks (Exhibit 1). That according to Wilson is \"tightening of financial conditions for sure\" and should weigh on PEs overall but it also has big implications for what should work at the sector/style level (Exhibit 2).\n\nIn short, Wilson digs in and claims that higher real rates should mean lower P/Es overall which likely means lower S&P 500, thus validating his bearish view which still sees the S&P dropping some 20% from its current perch to hit 4,000 by year end. However, he concedes, \"it may also mean value over growth and small caps over Nasdaq even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"\nWhich brings us to the key question we spent quite some time discussing last week, namelywhy did stocks rally so much into the end of the weekon what Wilson says are odds that growth will decelerate more than expected from Evergrande and financial conditions may tighten faster?\nHere Wilson is at least honest - as he puts it - and says \"we’re not sure but we think this may be a time when the markets are playing tricks on investors and even setting a bit of a trap.\" Actually it's simpler than that and has to do with thegamma reversal and technical flows we pointed out last week, but one has to be a \"greek geek\" - like Nomura's Charlie McElligott - to get that.\nThe other explanation proposed by Wilson is \"that investors were somewhat positioned for bad news going into the Fed meeting and the actual event simply served as a relief that it didn’t lead lower prices. This price action drove many investors to chase on Thursday for fear of missing out.In short, don’t underestimate the power of price to determine how investors interpret the facts.Just like negative price action can get people to sell the lows, positive price action can force people to buy\", he concludes.\nWhatever the reason for the initial bounce, it quickly accelerated and there was \"a lot of excitement last Thursday when stocks rallied sharply back above the 50 day moving average, a key barometer for many and a key level of support throughout this year for the S&P 500.\" That this happened when the 50DMA was broken \"on near record levels of volume in both the cash and derivatives markets\" only punctuated the strength of the rebound. By Friday, that moving average had been reclaimed and closed above it for the week, an important technical win as even Wilson admits. However, he then adds, from his vantage point, \"the very well defined uptrend that has been established over the past year was broken and not reclaimed. Instead, it looks like the rally from Wednesday to Friday was simply \"filling the gap\" created from Monday's break.\"\nHis conclusion on upcoming market action will hardly come as a surprise to those who have followed Wilson's progressive pessimism across 2021: pointing to the market's inability to recover its prior trendline, he says \"this leaves the technical picture very uncertain in our view and one can now break either way. With our fundamental view skewing poorly at the moment, we lean to the bearish outcome.\"\n\nGetting back to his process, Wilson then says that he has high conviction that \"earnings growth is likely to decelerate more than what the current consensus is forecasting.\" Furthermore, he thinks the market is starting to agree with that view and points to market breadth as a good leading indicator for earnings revision breadth where he says \"direction is clear\" and pointing to the newly shrinking market breadth, he reminds readers that earnings revision breadth is a good leading indicator for the overall market.\nIt will therefore hardly come as a surprise that with Wilson still clearly bearish, his advice to clients is \"don’t get too caught up in last week’s strong rebound from Monday’s sharp sell off\"which he views as a clean break of the uptrend and a filling of the gap created from Monday's crack. And with the technical picture murky, \"that's a time to trust the fundamental and cycle analyses which suggest lower equity prices ahead\"and as growth decelerates and financial conditions tighten, valuations are likely to fall from their lofty levels.\n* * *\nWith all that in mind, Wilson goes back to his core fundamental thesis which is simple: after a blockbuster Q2 season, earnings are set to drop substantially as a result of the margin compression we discussed most recently over the weekend, to wit:\n\nSince the second quarter of 2020 earnings results have come in much higher than consensus forecasts. Earnings beats ranged from 14% - 22% over this period while the median beat rate since 2008 is only 5%...We do not think companies will continue to beat at such an unprecedented rate and believe 3Q could see a material change in the more recent trend as supply chain issues and labor shortages pose a risk to both top line and margins.\n\n\n\n We looked at how 3Q earnings estimate revisions have trended at the industry group and sector level. Significant cuts have occurred in insurance, capital goods and transportation. \n Consumer Durables is the only area that has seen significant positive revisions at the industry group level. 3Q S&P 500 estimates have fallen by 77 bps over past 4 weeks. We expect more downside.\n\n\nNo surprises there, as the margin compression story is a familiar one (\"Margins Crushed As Producer Prices Explode At Record Pace In July\"). To Wilson, however, this is the story and one which the market refuses to even consider:\n2022 consensus margin estimates are historically lofty...we examine the risks to margins in coming quarters through two different top down approaches. The spread between GDP growth and wage growth correlates fairly closely with operating margins over time. Based on our economists' estimates, this spread should decelerate in coming quarters, which suggests margins should contract, not expand as bottom-up consensus expects.\n\nFurther, corporate transcript mentions of \"cost pressures\" and related terms are historically elevated. When this has happened in the past, margins have consolidated.\n\nWilson's final bearish point is that companies are reaching the limit on how much of rising input costs they can pass on to consumers. As he puts it, while \"many investors that we speak to are optimistic about corporates' ability to pass on cost through pricing and protect margins\" he would caution that \"prices in several consumer end markets are already at a level that is inhibiting demand. We think the risk of this dynamic (high prices leading to demand destruction) spreading to other areas of consumer demand is especially elevated because goods consumption is already so far above trend—in other words, high prices are that much more of a deterrent given households have already overconsumed in many areas.\"\n\nTranslation: absent another multi-trillion stimmy - and thanks to the chaos in the democratic party we know one is unlikely to come - Wilson's call for a 20% drop in stocks in the next few months remains intact.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868389953,"gmtCreate":1632608695272,"gmtModify":1632653975170,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Added to watchlist [Observation]&nbsp;","listText":"Added to watchlist [Observation]&nbsp;","text":"Added to watchlist [Observation]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868389953","repostId":"1188909032","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188909032","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632531451,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188909032?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-25 08:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Top Consumer Stocks To Watch Ahead Of October 2021<blockquote>2021 年 10 月前值得关注的 5 只顶级消费股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188909032","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"Do You Have These Top Consumer Stocks On Your Radar Now?\nThe past trading week has been exciting, to","content":"<p>Do You Have These Top Consumer Stocks On Your Radar Now?</p><p><blockquote>您现在关注这些顶级消费类股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> The past trading week has been exciting, to say the least. Despite all of the ups and downs,consumer stockscontinue to make waves in thestock market today. If anything, the consumer-focused industry continues to hold strong now. This is evident as August’s retail sales figures smashed expectations, rising by 0.7% versus an estimated drop of 0.8%. Moreover, the current broad-based rebound in thestock marketcould indicate that investors’ sentiment on the economy is improving.</p><p><blockquote>至少可以说，过去的交易周令人兴奋。尽管经历了种种起伏，消费类股票今天继续在股市上掀起波澜。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是以消费者为中心的行业现在继续保持强劲。8 月份的零售额数据超出预期，增长了 0.7%，而预计下降了 0.8%，这一点显而易见。此外，目前股市的广泛反弹可能表明投资者对经济的情绪正在改善。</blockquote></p><p> Evidently, we could look at the likes of<b>Roku</b>(NASDAQ: ROKU) right now. Just yesterday, Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris provided a positive update on the stock. Namely, Morris hit ROKU stock with a Buy rating and a price target of $395. Morris cites Roku’s aggressive expansion of its original content and penetration of international markets as core reasons for the upgrade.</p><p><blockquote>显然，我们可以看看<b>Roku</b>（纳斯达克：ROKU）现在。就在昨天，古根海姆分析师迈克尔·莫里斯提供了该股的积极更新。也就是说，Morris 给予ROKU股票买入评级，目标价为 395 美元。Morris 认为，Roku对其原创内容的积极扩张和对国际市场的渗透是升级的核心原因。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, there is some interesting movement going on with<b>Nike’s</b>(NYSE: NKE) shares as well. Yesterday, the company posted its first-quarter earnings after the closing bell. In short, Nike reported an earnings per share of $1.16 on revenue of $12.25 billion for the quarter. This is against estimates of $1.11 and $12.46 billion. Investors appear to be focusing on Nike’s revenue miss which is mostly due to temporary supply chain pressures. Regardless, as one of the biggest names in the sports apparel industry globally, some could see opportunity in NKE stocks’ current weakness. With all this activity in the space now, could one of these consumer stocks be worth investing in?</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，一些有趣的运动正在进行<b>耐克的</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：NKE）股票也是如此。昨天，该公司在收盘后公布了第一季度财报。简而言之，耐克公布本季度每股收益为 1.16 美元，营收为 122.5 亿美元。相比之下，预计为 1.11 美元和 124.6 亿美元。投资者似乎将注意力集中在耐克的收入下滑上，这主要是由于暂时的供应链压力造成的。无论如何，作为全球运动服装行业的知名企业之一，一些人可能会从 NKE 股票目前的疲软中看到机会。鉴于目前该领域的所有这些活动，这些消费类股票中的一只值得投资吗？</blockquote></p><p> Best Consumer Stocks To Buy [Or Sell] Today</p><p><blockquote>今天买入[或卖出]的最佳消费类股票</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Beyond Meat Inc.</b>(NASDAQ: BYND)</li>  <li><b>Trip.com Group Ltd.</b>(NASDAQ: TCOM)</li>  <li><b>Vail Resorts Inc.</b>(NYSE: MTN)</li>  <li><b>Costco Wholesale Corporation</b>(NASDAQ: COST)</li>  <li><b>Stitch Fix Inc.</b>(NASDAQ: SFIX)</li> </ul> Beyond Meat Inc.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Beyond Meat公司。</b>（纳斯达克：BYND）</li><li><b>携程网集团有限公司</b>（纳斯达克：TCOM）</li><li><b>韦尔度假村公司。</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：MTN）</li><li><b>好市多批发公司</b>（纳斯达克：成本）</li><li><b>缝合修复公司。</b>（纳斯达克：SFIX）</li></ul>Beyond Meat公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Beyond Meat</b>is a plant-based meat substitutes retailer with headquarters in California. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, poultry, and pork categories. In fact, it is one of the fastest-growing food companies in the U.S. as more people are increasingly alternating to plant-based options. Its products are designed to have the same taste and texture as animal-based meat while being the better option for the environment. BYND stock has almost doubled in valuation since its pandemic era low.</p><p><blockquote><b>Beyond Meat</b>是一家总部位于加利福尼亚州的植物性肉类替代品零售商。该公司在牛肉、家禽和猪肉类别中提供植物性选择。事实上，随着越来越多的人越来越多地转向植物性食品，它是美国发展最快的食品公司之一。它的产品被设计成具有与动物肉相同的味道和质地，同时是对环境更好的选择。自大流行时代低点以来，BYND 股票的估值几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> In August, the company reported its second-quarter financials. Diving in, net revenue for the quarter was $149.4 million, increasing by 31.8% year-over-year. Furthermore, gross profit for the quarter was $47.4 million. The company saw record net revenues and also continues to return to growth in the foodservice industry as its customers welcome consumers back to their venues. Not resting on its laurels, the company also continues to make substantial investments in its long-term growth in the U.S. and abroad. Given all of this, will you consider investing in BYND stock right now?</p><p><blockquote>8月，该公司公布了第二季度财务报告。本季度净收入为 1.494 亿美元，同比增长 31.8%。此外，本季度毛利润为4740万美元。该公司的净收入创历史新高，并且随着客户欢迎消费者重返其场所，餐饮服务行业也继续恢复增长。该公司并没有满足于现状，还继续对其在美国和海外的长期增长进行大量投资。考虑到所有这些，您现在会考虑投资 BYND 股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875119289e70dc28e620fb5eeb2d291b\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券服务条款</blockquote></p><p> <b>[Read More]</b>&nbsp;What Stocks To Buy Today? 5 Tech Stocks To Watch</p><p><blockquote><b>[阅读全文]</b>今天买什么股票？5只值得关注的科技股</blockquote></p><p> Trip.com Group Ltd</p><p><blockquote>携程网集团有限公司</blockquote></p><p> Following that, we have multinational online travel company<b>Trip.com</b>, a leading one-stop travel platform globally. It integrates a comprehensive suite of travel products and services and differentiated travel content. It is the go-to destination for travelers in China and around the world. Impressively, it is currently one of the largest online travel agencies in China and also one of the largest travel service providers in the world.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们有了跨国在线旅游公司<b>旅行网</b>，全球领先的一站式旅游平台。它整合了一套全面的旅游产品和服务以及差异化的旅游内容。它是中国和世界各地游客的首选目的地。令人印象深刻的是，它目前是中国最大的在线旅行社之一，也是世界上最大的旅游服务提供商之一。</blockquote></p><p> After yesterday’s closing bell, Trip.com posted solid figures in its second fiscal quarter earnings report. In it, the company saw a total revenue of $912 million for the quarter. This marks a significant year-over-year jump of 86%. In terms of net income, the company saw a 43% increase over the same period. CEO Jane Sun cites Trip.com’s focus on the domestic market as a core contributor to this solid quarter for the company. Overall, given this piece of news, will you consider adding TCOM stock to your portfolio right now?</p><p><blockquote>昨天收盘后，Trip.com 在第二财季财报中公布了稳健的数据。其中，该公司本季度总收入为 9.12 亿美元。这标志着同比大幅增长 86%。净利润方面，该公司同期增长43%。首席执行官 Jane Sun 认为，Trip.com 对国内市场的关注是该公司本季度业绩强劲的核心原因。总的来说，鉴于这条消息，您现在会考虑将 TCOM 股票添加到您的投资组合中吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/781e08ea2e30a4f9c94020727b3e77bc\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOSVail Resorts Inc.</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券托斯维尔度假村公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vail Resorts</b>is a leading global mountain resort operator. The company and its subsidiaries operate 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. In essence, it owns and/or manages a collection of casually elegant hotels under the RockResorts brand. It also has a development company that is in the real estate planning and development business. MTN stock is up by over 40% in the past year alone.</p><p><blockquote><b>韦尔度假村</b>是全球领先的山地度假村运营商。该公司及其子公司经营37个目的地山地度假村和区域滑雪场。本质上，它拥有和/或管理RockResorts品牌下的一系列休闲优雅的酒店。它还有一家从事房地产规划和开发业务的开发公司。仅去年一年，MTN 股价就上涨了 40% 以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Recently, KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded Vail Resorts to an Overweight rating from Sector Weight and hit it with a price target of $355. Analyst Brett Andreas says that demand for skiing vacations was exceeding expectations with some bookings already at record levels. Not to mention, the company continues to gain momentum on the financial front. In its fourth fiscal quarterearnings call, Vail reported a net income of $127.9 million, marking a sizable 29.4% year-over-year increase. After considering that pandemic-related factors still weigh on its key operations, the company’s fundamentals are admirable. Moreover, the company also declared a cash dividend of $0.88 per share, to investors’ delight. All things considered, will you buy MTN stock?</p><p><blockquote>最近，KeyBanc Capital Markets 将 Vail Resorts 从行业权重上调至跑赢大盘评级，并将目标价定为 355 美元。分析师布雷特·安德烈亚斯表示，滑雪度假的需求超出了预期，一些预订量已经达到创纪录水平。更不用说，该公司在财务方面继续获得动力。在第四财季盈利看涨期权中，韦尔公布净利润为 1.279 亿美元，同比大幅增长 29.4%。考虑到大流行病相关因素仍对其关键业务构成压力，该公司的基本面令人钦佩。此外，该公司还宣布派发每股 0.88 美元的现金股息，令投资者欣喜不已。综合考虑，您会购买 MTN 股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c596fd2c2dc3ef4d15e9c9dfa89b8147\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券服务条款</blockquote></p><p> <b>[Read More]</b>&nbsp;4 Semiconductor Stocks To Watch Right Now</p><p><blockquote><b>[阅读全文]</b>现在值得关注的 4 只半导体股票</blockquote></p><p> Costco Wholesale Corporation</p><p><blockquote>好市多批发公司</blockquote></p><p> Next up, we will be taking a look at<b>Costco</b>. For the most part, the multinational consumer staples giant would be another player to consider in thestock market today. The main factor differentiating Costco from its retail competitors would be its membership-only big-box operations. Simply put, the company only caters to members and sells daily necessities in bulk. Amidst the ongoing pandemic and climate crises, Costco’s offerings could see greater demand from consumers.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们将看看<b>好市多</b>在很大程度上，这家跨国消费品巨头将是当今股市中另一个值得考虑的参与者。好市多区别于其零售竞争对手的主要因素是其仅限会员的大盒子业务。简单来说，公司只迎合会员，批量销售日用品。在大流行病和气候危机持续的情况下，Costco 的产品可能会受到消费者的更大需求。</blockquote></p><p> By and large, with COST stock sitting on year-to-date gains of over 19%, could it be worth investing in? Well, for one thing, the company beat Wall Streets’ projections across the board in its latest quarterly earnings report. In detail, Costco posted an earnings per share of $3.76 on revenue of $62.7 billion for the quarter. For some perspective, consensus estimates suggest an earnings per share of $3.59 on revenue of $61.6 billion. All in all, would you consider adding COST stock to your portfolio?</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，成本股年初至今涨幅超过 19%，值得投资吗？首先，该公司在最新的季度财报中全面超出了华尔街的预测。具体来说，Costco 公布本季度每股收益为 3.76 美元，营收为 627 亿美元。从某种角度来看，普遍估计每股收益为 3.59 美元，营收为 616 亿美元。总而言之，您会考虑将成本股票添加到您的投资组合中吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0412ae414ccd0df0d5f93302bd037b56\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券服务条款</blockquote></p><p> <b>[Read More]</b>&nbsp;Top Stocks To Buy Now? 4 Renewable Energy Stocks For Your Watchlist</p><p><blockquote><b>[阅读全文]</b>现在值得购买的热门股票？您关注列表中的 4 只可再生能源股票</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix Inc.</p><p><blockquote>缝合修复公司。</blockquote></p><p> Another name to know in the consumer stock space now would be<b>Stitch Fix</b>. In brief, it is an online personal styling service. Through a combination of artificial intelligence and data science, Stitch Fix provides customers with personalized e-commerce experiences. Given the prevalence of online shopping throughout the pandemic, SFIX stock could be in focus among investors. In fact, the company’s shares are up by over 15% just this week on account of its solid earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>现在消费类股票领域另一个值得了解的名字是<b>缝线固定</b>.简而言之，它是一个在线个人造型服务。通过人工智能和数据科学的结合，Stitch Fix为客户提供个性化的电子商务体验。鉴于整个疫情网上购物的盛行，SFIX 股票可能会成为投资者关注的焦点。事实上，由于其稳健的财报，该公司股价仅本周就上涨了 15% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, Stitch Fix raked in a total revenue of $571.16 million for the quarter, marking a 28% year-over-year increase. Additionally, the company also reported massive year-over-year spikes of over 145% in both its net income and earnings per share. Despite beating analyst estimates on these fronts, Stitch Fix does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon. This appears to be the case as the company is expanding its services with Stitch Fix Freestyle, a “differentiated shopping experience”. This would give customers a more instant and flexible means of shopping on its platform. As such, could SFIX stock be a top pick in the stock market now?</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，Stitch Fix 本季度总收入为 5.7116 亿美元，同比增长 28%。此外，该公司还报告净利润和每股收益同比大幅增长超过 145%。尽管在这些方面超出了分析师的预期，但 Stitch Fix 似乎不会很快放缓。随着该公司通过 Stitch Fix Freestyle（一种 “差异化的购物体验”）扩展其服务，情况似乎就是如此。这将为客户提供更即时、更灵活的平台购物方式。因此，SFIX 股票现在能成为股市的首选吗？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603171495471","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Top Consumer Stocks To Watch Ahead Of October 2021<blockquote>2021 年 10 月前值得关注的 5 只顶级消费股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Top Consumer Stocks To Watch Ahead Of October 2021<blockquote>2021 年 10 月前值得关注的 5 只顶级消费股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Nasdaq</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-25 08:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Do You Have These Top Consumer Stocks On Your Radar Now?</p><p><blockquote>您现在关注这些顶级消费类股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> The past trading week has been exciting, to say the least. Despite all of the ups and downs,consumer stockscontinue to make waves in thestock market today. If anything, the consumer-focused industry continues to hold strong now. This is evident as August’s retail sales figures smashed expectations, rising by 0.7% versus an estimated drop of 0.8%. Moreover, the current broad-based rebound in thestock marketcould indicate that investors’ sentiment on the economy is improving.</p><p><blockquote>至少可以说，过去的交易周令人兴奋。尽管经历了种种起伏，消费类股票今天继续在股市上掀起波澜。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是以消费者为中心的行业现在继续保持强劲。8 月份的零售额数据超出预期，增长了 0.7%，而预计下降了 0.8%，这一点显而易见。此外，目前股市的广泛反弹可能表明投资者对经济的情绪正在改善。</blockquote></p><p> Evidently, we could look at the likes of<b>Roku</b>(NASDAQ: ROKU) right now. Just yesterday, Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris provided a positive update on the stock. Namely, Morris hit ROKU stock with a Buy rating and a price target of $395. Morris cites Roku’s aggressive expansion of its original content and penetration of international markets as core reasons for the upgrade.</p><p><blockquote>显然，我们可以看看<b>Roku</b>（纳斯达克：ROKU）现在。就在昨天，古根海姆分析师迈克尔·莫里斯提供了该股的积极更新。也就是说，Morris 给予ROKU股票买入评级，目标价为 395 美元。Morris 认为，Roku对其原创内容的积极扩张和对国际市场的渗透是升级的核心原因。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, there is some interesting movement going on with<b>Nike’s</b>(NYSE: NKE) shares as well. Yesterday, the company posted its first-quarter earnings after the closing bell. In short, Nike reported an earnings per share of $1.16 on revenue of $12.25 billion for the quarter. This is against estimates of $1.11 and $12.46 billion. Investors appear to be focusing on Nike’s revenue miss which is mostly due to temporary supply chain pressures. Regardless, as one of the biggest names in the sports apparel industry globally, some could see opportunity in NKE stocks’ current weakness. With all this activity in the space now, could one of these consumer stocks be worth investing in?</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，一些有趣的运动正在进行<b>耐克的</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：NKE）股票也是如此。昨天，该公司在收盘后公布了第一季度财报。简而言之，耐克公布本季度每股收益为 1.16 美元，营收为 122.5 亿美元。相比之下，预计为 1.11 美元和 124.6 亿美元。投资者似乎将注意力集中在耐克的收入下滑上，这主要是由于暂时的供应链压力造成的。无论如何，作为全球运动服装行业的知名企业之一，一些人可能会从 NKE 股票目前的疲软中看到机会。鉴于目前该领域的所有这些活动，这些消费类股票中的一只值得投资吗？</blockquote></p><p> Best Consumer Stocks To Buy [Or Sell] Today</p><p><blockquote>今天买入[或卖出]的最佳消费类股票</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Beyond Meat Inc.</b>(NASDAQ: BYND)</li>  <li><b>Trip.com Group Ltd.</b>(NASDAQ: TCOM)</li>  <li><b>Vail Resorts Inc.</b>(NYSE: MTN)</li>  <li><b>Costco Wholesale Corporation</b>(NASDAQ: COST)</li>  <li><b>Stitch Fix Inc.</b>(NASDAQ: SFIX)</li> </ul> Beyond Meat Inc.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Beyond Meat公司。</b>（纳斯达克：BYND）</li><li><b>携程网集团有限公司</b>（纳斯达克：TCOM）</li><li><b>韦尔度假村公司。</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：MTN）</li><li><b>好市多批发公司</b>（纳斯达克：成本）</li><li><b>缝合修复公司。</b>（纳斯达克：SFIX）</li></ul>Beyond Meat公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Beyond Meat</b>is a plant-based meat substitutes retailer with headquarters in California. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, poultry, and pork categories. In fact, it is one of the fastest-growing food companies in the U.S. as more people are increasingly alternating to plant-based options. Its products are designed to have the same taste and texture as animal-based meat while being the better option for the environment. BYND stock has almost doubled in valuation since its pandemic era low.</p><p><blockquote><b>Beyond Meat</b>是一家总部位于加利福尼亚州的植物性肉类替代品零售商。该公司在牛肉、家禽和猪肉类别中提供植物性选择。事实上，随着越来越多的人越来越多地转向植物性食品，它是美国发展最快的食品公司之一。它的产品被设计成具有与动物肉相同的味道和质地，同时是对环境更好的选择。自大流行时代低点以来，BYND 股票的估值几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> In August, the company reported its second-quarter financials. Diving in, net revenue for the quarter was $149.4 million, increasing by 31.8% year-over-year. Furthermore, gross profit for the quarter was $47.4 million. The company saw record net revenues and also continues to return to growth in the foodservice industry as its customers welcome consumers back to their venues. Not resting on its laurels, the company also continues to make substantial investments in its long-term growth in the U.S. and abroad. Given all of this, will you consider investing in BYND stock right now?</p><p><blockquote>8月，该公司公布了第二季度财务报告。本季度净收入为 1.494 亿美元，同比增长 31.8%。此外，本季度毛利润为4740万美元。该公司的净收入创历史新高，并且随着客户欢迎消费者重返其场所，餐饮服务行业也继续恢复增长。该公司并没有满足于现状，还继续对其在美国和海外的长期增长进行大量投资。考虑到所有这些，您现在会考虑投资 BYND 股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875119289e70dc28e620fb5eeb2d291b\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券服务条款</blockquote></p><p> <b>[Read More]</b>&nbsp;What Stocks To Buy Today? 5 Tech Stocks To Watch</p><p><blockquote><b>[阅读全文]</b>今天买什么股票？5只值得关注的科技股</blockquote></p><p> Trip.com Group Ltd</p><p><blockquote>携程网集团有限公司</blockquote></p><p> Following that, we have multinational online travel company<b>Trip.com</b>, a leading one-stop travel platform globally. It integrates a comprehensive suite of travel products and services and differentiated travel content. It is the go-to destination for travelers in China and around the world. Impressively, it is currently one of the largest online travel agencies in China and also one of the largest travel service providers in the world.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们有了跨国在线旅游公司<b>旅行网</b>，全球领先的一站式旅游平台。它整合了一套全面的旅游产品和服务以及差异化的旅游内容。它是中国和世界各地游客的首选目的地。令人印象深刻的是，它目前是中国最大的在线旅行社之一，也是世界上最大的旅游服务提供商之一。</blockquote></p><p> After yesterday’s closing bell, Trip.com posted solid figures in its second fiscal quarter earnings report. In it, the company saw a total revenue of $912 million for the quarter. This marks a significant year-over-year jump of 86%. In terms of net income, the company saw a 43% increase over the same period. CEO Jane Sun cites Trip.com’s focus on the domestic market as a core contributor to this solid quarter for the company. Overall, given this piece of news, will you consider adding TCOM stock to your portfolio right now?</p><p><blockquote>昨天收盘后，Trip.com 在第二财季财报中公布了稳健的数据。其中，该公司本季度总收入为 9.12 亿美元。这标志着同比大幅增长 86%。净利润方面，该公司同期增长43%。首席执行官 Jane Sun 认为，Trip.com 对国内市场的关注是该公司本季度业绩强劲的核心原因。总的来说，鉴于这条消息，您现在会考虑将 TCOM 股票添加到您的投资组合中吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/781e08ea2e30a4f9c94020727b3e77bc\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOSVail Resorts Inc.</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券托斯维尔度假村公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vail Resorts</b>is a leading global mountain resort operator. The company and its subsidiaries operate 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. In essence, it owns and/or manages a collection of casually elegant hotels under the RockResorts brand. It also has a development company that is in the real estate planning and development business. MTN stock is up by over 40% in the past year alone.</p><p><blockquote><b>韦尔度假村</b>是全球领先的山地度假村运营商。该公司及其子公司经营37个目的地山地度假村和区域滑雪场。本质上，它拥有和/或管理RockResorts品牌下的一系列休闲优雅的酒店。它还有一家从事房地产规划和开发业务的开发公司。仅去年一年，MTN 股价就上涨了 40% 以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Recently, KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded Vail Resorts to an Overweight rating from Sector Weight and hit it with a price target of $355. Analyst Brett Andreas says that demand for skiing vacations was exceeding expectations with some bookings already at record levels. Not to mention, the company continues to gain momentum on the financial front. In its fourth fiscal quarterearnings call, Vail reported a net income of $127.9 million, marking a sizable 29.4% year-over-year increase. After considering that pandemic-related factors still weigh on its key operations, the company’s fundamentals are admirable. Moreover, the company also declared a cash dividend of $0.88 per share, to investors’ delight. All things considered, will you buy MTN stock?</p><p><blockquote>最近，KeyBanc Capital Markets 将 Vail Resorts 从行业权重上调至跑赢大盘评级，并将目标价定为 355 美元。分析师布雷特·安德烈亚斯表示，滑雪度假的需求超出了预期，一些预订量已经达到创纪录水平。更不用说，该公司在财务方面继续获得动力。在第四财季盈利看涨期权中，韦尔公布净利润为 1.279 亿美元，同比大幅增长 29.4%。考虑到大流行病相关因素仍对其关键业务构成压力，该公司的基本面令人钦佩。此外，该公司还宣布派发每股 0.88 美元的现金股息，令投资者欣喜不已。综合考虑，您会购买 MTN 股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c596fd2c2dc3ef4d15e9c9dfa89b8147\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券服务条款</blockquote></p><p> <b>[Read More]</b>&nbsp;4 Semiconductor Stocks To Watch Right Now</p><p><blockquote><b>[阅读全文]</b>现在值得关注的 4 只半导体股票</blockquote></p><p> Costco Wholesale Corporation</p><p><blockquote>好市多批发公司</blockquote></p><p> Next up, we will be taking a look at<b>Costco</b>. For the most part, the multinational consumer staples giant would be another player to consider in thestock market today. The main factor differentiating Costco from its retail competitors would be its membership-only big-box operations. Simply put, the company only caters to members and sells daily necessities in bulk. Amidst the ongoing pandemic and climate crises, Costco’s offerings could see greater demand from consumers.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们将看看<b>好市多</b>在很大程度上，这家跨国消费品巨头将是当今股市中另一个值得考虑的参与者。好市多区别于其零售竞争对手的主要因素是其仅限会员的大盒子业务。简单来说，公司只迎合会员，批量销售日用品。在大流行病和气候危机持续的情况下，Costco 的产品可能会受到消费者的更大需求。</blockquote></p><p> By and large, with COST stock sitting on year-to-date gains of over 19%, could it be worth investing in? Well, for one thing, the company beat Wall Streets’ projections across the board in its latest quarterly earnings report. In detail, Costco posted an earnings per share of $3.76 on revenue of $62.7 billion for the quarter. For some perspective, consensus estimates suggest an earnings per share of $3.59 on revenue of $61.6 billion. All in all, would you consider adding COST stock to your portfolio?</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，成本股年初至今涨幅超过 19%，值得投资吗？首先，该公司在最新的季度财报中全面超出了华尔街的预测。具体来说，Costco 公布本季度每股收益为 3.76 美元，营收为 627 亿美元。从某种角度来看，普遍估计每股收益为 3.59 美元，营收为 616 亿美元。总而言之，您会考虑将成本股票添加到您的投资组合中吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0412ae414ccd0df0d5f93302bd037b56\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券服务条款</blockquote></p><p> <b>[Read More]</b>&nbsp;Top Stocks To Buy Now? 4 Renewable Energy Stocks For Your Watchlist</p><p><blockquote><b>[阅读全文]</b>现在值得购买的热门股票？您关注列表中的 4 只可再生能源股票</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix Inc.</p><p><blockquote>缝合修复公司。</blockquote></p><p> Another name to know in the consumer stock space now would be<b>Stitch Fix</b>. In brief, it is an online personal styling service. Through a combination of artificial intelligence and data science, Stitch Fix provides customers with personalized e-commerce experiences. Given the prevalence of online shopping throughout the pandemic, SFIX stock could be in focus among investors. In fact, the company’s shares are up by over 15% just this week on account of its solid earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>现在消费类股票领域另一个值得了解的名字是<b>缝线固定</b>.简而言之，它是一个在线个人造型服务。通过人工智能和数据科学的结合，Stitch Fix为客户提供个性化的电子商务体验。鉴于整个疫情网上购物的盛行，SFIX 股票可能会成为投资者关注的焦点。事实上，由于其稳健的财报，该公司股价仅本周就上涨了 15% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, Stitch Fix raked in a total revenue of $571.16 million for the quarter, marking a 28% year-over-year increase. Additionally, the company also reported massive year-over-year spikes of over 145% in both its net income and earnings per share. Despite beating analyst estimates on these fronts, Stitch Fix does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon. This appears to be the case as the company is expanding its services with Stitch Fix Freestyle, a “differentiated shopping experience”. This would give customers a more instant and flexible means of shopping on its platform. As such, could SFIX stock be a top pick in the stock market now?</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，Stitch Fix 本季度总收入为 5.7116 亿美元，同比增长 28%。此外，该公司还报告净利润和每股收益同比大幅增长超过 145%。尽管在这些方面超出了分析师的预期，但 Stitch Fix 似乎不会很快放缓。随着该公司通过 Stitch Fix Freestyle（一种 “差异化的购物体验”）扩展其服务，情况似乎就是如此。这将为客户提供更即时、更灵活的平台购物方式。因此，SFIX 股票现在能成为股市的首选吗？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-top-consumer-stocks-to-watch-ahead-of-october-2021-2021-09-24\">Nasdaq</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TCOM":"携程网","SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc.","ROKU":"Roku Inc","BYND":"Beyond Meat, Inc.","NKE":"耐克","COST":"好市多"},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-top-consumer-stocks-to-watch-ahead-of-october-2021-2021-09-24","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188909032","content_text":"Do You Have These Top Consumer Stocks On Your Radar Now?\nThe past trading week has been exciting, to say the least. Despite all of the ups and downs,consumer stockscontinue to make waves in thestock market today. If anything, the consumer-focused industry continues to hold strong now. This is evident as August’s retail sales figures smashed expectations, rising by 0.7% versus an estimated drop of 0.8%. Moreover, the current broad-based rebound in thestock marketcould indicate that investors’ sentiment on the economy is improving.\nEvidently, we could look at the likes ofRoku(NASDAQ: ROKU) right now. Just yesterday, Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris provided a positive update on the stock. Namely, Morris hit ROKU stock with a Buy rating and a price target of $395. Morris cites Roku’s aggressive expansion of its original content and penetration of international markets as core reasons for the upgrade.\nAt the same time, there is some interesting movement going on withNike’s(NYSE: NKE) shares as well. Yesterday, the company posted its first-quarter earnings after the closing bell. In short, Nike reported an earnings per share of $1.16 on revenue of $12.25 billion for the quarter. This is against estimates of $1.11 and $12.46 billion. Investors appear to be focusing on Nike’s revenue miss which is mostly due to temporary supply chain pressures. Regardless, as one of the biggest names in the sports apparel industry globally, some could see opportunity in NKE stocks’ current weakness. With all this activity in the space now, could one of these consumer stocks be worth investing in?\nBest Consumer Stocks To Buy [Or Sell] Today\n\nBeyond Meat Inc.(NASDAQ: BYND)\nTrip.com Group Ltd.(NASDAQ: TCOM)\nVail Resorts Inc.(NYSE: MTN)\nCostco Wholesale Corporation(NASDAQ: COST)\nStitch Fix Inc.(NASDAQ: SFIX)\n\nBeyond Meat Inc.\nBeyond Meatis a plant-based meat substitutes retailer with headquarters in California. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, poultry, and pork categories. In fact, it is one of the fastest-growing food companies in the U.S. as more people are increasingly alternating to plant-based options. Its products are designed to have the same taste and texture as animal-based meat while being the better option for the environment. BYND stock has almost doubled in valuation since its pandemic era low.\nIn August, the company reported its second-quarter financials. Diving in, net revenue for the quarter was $149.4 million, increasing by 31.8% year-over-year. Furthermore, gross profit for the quarter was $47.4 million. The company saw record net revenues and also continues to return to growth in the foodservice industry as its customers welcome consumers back to their venues. Not resting on its laurels, the company also continues to make substantial investments in its long-term growth in the U.S. and abroad. Given all of this, will you consider investing in BYND stock right now?\nSource: TD Ameritrade TOS\n[Read More] What Stocks To Buy Today? 5 Tech Stocks To Watch\nTrip.com Group Ltd\nFollowing that, we have multinational online travel companyTrip.com, a leading one-stop travel platform globally. It integrates a comprehensive suite of travel products and services and differentiated travel content. It is the go-to destination for travelers in China and around the world. Impressively, it is currently one of the largest online travel agencies in China and also one of the largest travel service providers in the world.\nAfter yesterday’s closing bell, Trip.com posted solid figures in its second fiscal quarter earnings report. In it, the company saw a total revenue of $912 million for the quarter. This marks a significant year-over-year jump of 86%. In terms of net income, the company saw a 43% increase over the same period. CEO Jane Sun cites Trip.com’s focus on the domestic market as a core contributor to this solid quarter for the company. Overall, given this piece of news, will you consider adding TCOM stock to your portfolio right now?\nSource: TD Ameritrade TOSVail Resorts Inc.\nVail Resortsis a leading global mountain resort operator. The company and its subsidiaries operate 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. In essence, it owns and/or manages a collection of casually elegant hotels under the RockResorts brand. It also has a development company that is in the real estate planning and development business. MTN stock is up by over 40% in the past year alone.\nRecently, KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded Vail Resorts to an Overweight rating from Sector Weight and hit it with a price target of $355. Analyst Brett Andreas says that demand for skiing vacations was exceeding expectations with some bookings already at record levels. Not to mention, the company continues to gain momentum on the financial front. In its fourth fiscal quarterearnings call, Vail reported a net income of $127.9 million, marking a sizable 29.4% year-over-year increase. After considering that pandemic-related factors still weigh on its key operations, the company’s fundamentals are admirable. Moreover, the company also declared a cash dividend of $0.88 per share, to investors’ delight. All things considered, will you buy MTN stock?\nSource: TD Ameritrade TOS\n[Read More] 4 Semiconductor Stocks To Watch Right Now\nCostco Wholesale Corporation\nNext up, we will be taking a look atCostco. For the most part, the multinational consumer staples giant would be another player to consider in thestock market today. The main factor differentiating Costco from its retail competitors would be its membership-only big-box operations. Simply put, the company only caters to members and sells daily necessities in bulk. Amidst the ongoing pandemic and climate crises, Costco’s offerings could see greater demand from consumers.\nBy and large, with COST stock sitting on year-to-date gains of over 19%, could it be worth investing in? Well, for one thing, the company beat Wall Streets’ projections across the board in its latest quarterly earnings report. In detail, Costco posted an earnings per share of $3.76 on revenue of $62.7 billion for the quarter. For some perspective, consensus estimates suggest an earnings per share of $3.59 on revenue of $61.6 billion. All in all, would you consider adding COST stock to your portfolio?\nSource: TD Ameritrade TOS\n[Read More] Top Stocks To Buy Now? 4 Renewable Energy Stocks For Your Watchlist\nStitch Fix Inc.\nAnother name to know in the consumer stock space now would beStitch Fix. In brief, it is an online personal styling service. Through a combination of artificial intelligence and data science, Stitch Fix provides customers with personalized e-commerce experiences. Given the prevalence of online shopping throughout the pandemic, SFIX stock could be in focus among investors. In fact, the company’s shares are up by over 15% just this week on account of its solid earnings report.\nNotably, Stitch Fix raked in a total revenue of $571.16 million for the quarter, marking a 28% year-over-year increase. Additionally, the company also reported massive year-over-year spikes of over 145% in both its net income and earnings per share. Despite beating analyst estimates on these fronts, Stitch Fix does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon. This appears to be the case as the company is expanding its services with Stitch Fix Freestyle, a “differentiated shopping experience”. This would give customers a more instant and flexible means of shopping on its platform. As such, could SFIX stock be a top pick in the stock market now?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TCOM":0.9,"BYND":0.9,"ROKU":0.9,"SFIX":0.9,"NKE":0.9,"COST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863705575,"gmtCreate":1632432667697,"gmtModify":1632728586616,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great tips to help go to the moon 🚀","listText":"Great tips to help go to the moon 🚀","text":"Great tips to help go to the moon 🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863705575","repostId":"2169667599","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863040780,"gmtCreate":1632348701740,"gmtModify":1632801122370,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Blush]&nbsp;","listText":"[Blush]&nbsp;","text":"[Blush]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863040780","repostId":"1118101852","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118101852","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632302285,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1118101852?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-22 17:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors<blockquote>为什么摩根士丹利开始将“火与冰”和熊市下跌视为股市投资者“更有可能”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118101852","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice.\nInv","content":"<p>Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）认为，牛市将在烈火中结束，尽管它也可能在冰中结束。</blockquote></p><p> Invoking the imagery from the Robert Frost poem “Fire &amp; Ice,” the Morgan Stanley strategist said that he sees earnings revisions from American corporations “and higher frequency macro data” pointing to a decelerating economy, “amid demand pull forward, supply chain issues and margin pressure,” which he forecasts could lead to a 20% drop, a near-term outcome that he describes as “ice” for investors, in a research note dated Sept. 20.</p><p><blockquote>这位摩根士丹利策略师援引罗伯特-弗罗斯特（Robert Frost）的诗歌《火与冰》（Fire &amp; Ice）中的意象说，他认为美国公司的盈利修正 “和更高频率的宏观数据 ”表明经济正在减速，“在需求拉动、供应链问题和利润率压力的情况下”，他预测这可能导致 20% 的下跌，他在 9 月 20 日的一份研究报告中称这一近期结果对投资者来说是 “冰”。</blockquote></p><p> Wilson wrote that he is starting to see a 20% fall as a “more likely” outcome for equity markets. However, during an interview on CNBC on Tuesday, the strategist maintained that 10% is still his “base case” scenario and held his forecast for the S&amp;P 500 index to end the year around 4,000.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊写道，他开始认为股市下跌 20% 是 “更有可能 ”的结果。不过，在周二接受 CNBC 采访时，这位策略师坚持认为 10% 仍然是他的 “基本情况 ”情景，并维持他对标普500指数年底的预测在 4000 点左右。</blockquote></p><p> A fall of at least 20% from a recent peak is a widely accepted definition of a bear market, while a drop of 10% defines a correction.</p><p><blockquote>从最近的峰值下跌至少 20% 是熊市被广泛接受的定义，而下跌 10% 则定义为修正。</blockquote></p><p> His “fire” scenario, which he speculates would lead to a 10% slide for the market, would be precipitated by the Federal Reserve initiating its efforts to “remove monetary accommodation in response to an overheating economy.”</p><p><blockquote>他的 “火灾 ”情景将导致市场下滑 10%，而美联储将开始努力 “取消货币宽松以应对经济过热 ”，这将促成他的 “火灾 ”情景。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will conclude its September meeting on Wednesday, and release an updated policy statement and a new set of projections for interest rates, including 2024 for the first time.</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于周三结束9月份会议，并发布更新后的政策声明和一套新的利率预测，其中首次包括2024年。</blockquote></p><p> The equity market already has been under selling pressure for several sessions before Monday’s slump which was partially attributed to concerns about possible global systemic risk resulting from a potential debt default by one of China’s biggest property developers: Evergrande 3333, -0.44%.</p><p><blockquote>在周一的暴跌之前，股市已经连续几个交易日承受抛售压力，部分原因是人们担心中国最大的房地产开发商之一恒大 3333，-0.44% 可能出现债务违约，可能引发全球系统性风险。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.22% notched the worst daily declines since May 12 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.15% registered the sharpest one-day fall since July 19.</p><p><blockquote>周一，标普500 SPX指数（-0.08%）和纳斯达克综合指数（+0.22%）创下自5月12日以来最大单日跌幅，道琼斯工业平均指数（-0.15%）创下自7月19日以来最大单日跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 hasn’t seen a 5% pullback from its peak in about 220 sessions, the longest run since 2016, when the market went 404 sessions without falling by at least 5% peak to trough, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>根据道琼斯市场数据，标普500已经有大约 220 个交易日从峰值回调 5%，这是自 2016 年以来最长的一次，当时市场有 404 个交易日从峰值到谷值没有下跌至少 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Monday’s fall has the index about 4% from its Sept. 2 record close, while the Dow is off 4.65% from its Aug. 16 record and the Nasdaq Composite is down 4.3% from its Sept. 7 recent peak.</p><p><blockquote>周一的下跌使该指数较 9 月 2 日的历史收盘价下跌了约 4%，道琼斯指数较 8 月 16 日的历史收盘价下跌了 4.65%，纳斯达克综合指数较 9 月 7 日的近期峰值下跌了 4.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Wilson said that the break of the S&amp;P 500 below its 50-day moving average, which occurred on Friday and then deepened on Monday, represents a change of trend for investors.</p><p><blockquote>Wilson表示，标普500周五跌破50日移动平均线，然后在周一加深，这对投资者来说代表着趋势的变化。</blockquote></p><p> “Well, I think the trend broke, so we did eventually” take out “the 50-day moving average…and it broke violently yesterday … and I think you gotta pay attention to that, Wilson said in his CNBC interview.</p><p><blockquote>“威尔逊在接受 CNBC 采访时说：“我认为趋势被打破了，所以我们最终 ”拿出了 “50 天移动平均线.昨天它猛烈地突破了.我认为你必须注意这一点。</blockquote></p><p> “I respect the market and I would suggest other people respect the market… and what that’s saying is that that trend was challenged,” Wilson said.</p><p><blockquote>“威尔逊说：”我尊重市场，我建议其他人也尊重市场.这意味着这种趋势受到了挑战。</blockquote></p><p> “I’m comfortable with our call,” he said, pooh-poohing criticism that investors have consistently bought the dip in this euphoric, pandemic-recovery cycle.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我对我们的看涨期权感到满意，并对投资者在这个令人欣喜的大流行病复苏周期中一直逢低买入的批评嗤之以鼻。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors<blockquote>为什么摩根士丹利开始将“火与冰”和熊市下跌视为股市投资者“更有可能”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Morgan Stanley is starting to see ‘fire and ice’ and a bear-market drop as ‘more likely’ for stock-market investors<blockquote>为什么摩根士丹利开始将“火与冰”和熊市下跌视为股市投资者“更有可能”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-22 17:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）的迈克尔-威尔逊（Michael Wilson）认为，牛市将在烈火中结束，尽管它也可能在冰中结束。</blockquote></p><p> Invoking the imagery from the Robert Frost poem “Fire &amp; Ice,” the Morgan Stanley strategist said that he sees earnings revisions from American corporations “and higher frequency macro data” pointing to a decelerating economy, “amid demand pull forward, supply chain issues and margin pressure,” which he forecasts could lead to a 20% drop, a near-term outcome that he describes as “ice” for investors, in a research note dated Sept. 20.</p><p><blockquote>这位摩根士丹利策略师援引罗伯特-弗罗斯特（Robert Frost）的诗歌《火与冰》（Fire &amp; Ice）中的意象说，他认为美国公司的盈利修正 “和更高频率的宏观数据 ”表明经济正在减速，“在需求拉动、供应链问题和利润率压力的情况下”，他预测这可能导致 20% 的下跌，他在 9 月 20 日的一份研究报告中称这一近期结果对投资者来说是 “冰”。</blockquote></p><p> Wilson wrote that he is starting to see a 20% fall as a “more likely” outcome for equity markets. However, during an interview on CNBC on Tuesday, the strategist maintained that 10% is still his “base case” scenario and held his forecast for the S&amp;P 500 index to end the year around 4,000.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊写道，他开始认为股市下跌 20% 是 “更有可能 ”的结果。不过，在周二接受 CNBC 采访时，这位策略师坚持认为 10% 仍然是他的 “基本情况 ”情景，并维持他对标普500指数年底的预测在 4000 点左右。</blockquote></p><p> A fall of at least 20% from a recent peak is a widely accepted definition of a bear market, while a drop of 10% defines a correction.</p><p><blockquote>从最近的峰值下跌至少 20% 是熊市被广泛接受的定义，而下跌 10% 则定义为修正。</blockquote></p><p> His “fire” scenario, which he speculates would lead to a 10% slide for the market, would be precipitated by the Federal Reserve initiating its efforts to “remove monetary accommodation in response to an overheating economy.”</p><p><blockquote>他的 “火灾 ”情景将导致市场下滑 10%，而美联储将开始努力 “取消货币宽松以应对经济过热 ”，这将促成他的 “火灾 ”情景。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed will conclude its September meeting on Wednesday, and release an updated policy statement and a new set of projections for interest rates, including 2024 for the first time.</p><p><blockquote>美联储将于周三结束9月份会议，并发布更新后的政策声明和一套新的利率预测，其中首次包括2024年。</blockquote></p><p> The equity market already has been under selling pressure for several sessions before Monday’s slump which was partially attributed to concerns about possible global systemic risk resulting from a potential debt default by one of China’s biggest property developers: Evergrande 3333, -0.44%.</p><p><blockquote>在周一的暴跌之前，股市已经连续几个交易日承受抛售压力，部分原因是人们担心中国最大的房地产开发商之一恒大 3333，-0.44% 可能出现债务违约，可能引发全球系统性风险。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.22% notched the worst daily declines since May 12 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.15% registered the sharpest one-day fall since July 19.</p><p><blockquote>周一，标普500 SPX指数（-0.08%）和纳斯达克综合指数（+0.22%）创下自5月12日以来最大单日跌幅，道琼斯工业平均指数（-0.15%）创下自7月19日以来最大单日跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 hasn’t seen a 5% pullback from its peak in about 220 sessions, the longest run since 2016, when the market went 404 sessions without falling by at least 5% peak to trough, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>根据道琼斯市场数据，标普500已经有大约 220 个交易日从峰值回调 5%，这是自 2016 年以来最长的一次，当时市场有 404 个交易日从峰值到谷值没有下跌至少 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Monday’s fall has the index about 4% from its Sept. 2 record close, while the Dow is off 4.65% from its Aug. 16 record and the Nasdaq Composite is down 4.3% from its Sept. 7 recent peak.</p><p><blockquote>周一的下跌使该指数较 9 月 2 日的历史收盘价下跌了约 4%，道琼斯指数较 8 月 16 日的历史收盘价下跌了 4.65%，纳斯达克综合指数较 9 月 7 日的近期峰值下跌了 4.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Wilson said that the break of the S&amp;P 500 below its 50-day moving average, which occurred on Friday and then deepened on Monday, represents a change of trend for investors.</p><p><blockquote>Wilson表示，标普500周五跌破50日移动平均线，然后在周一加深，这对投资者来说代表着趋势的变化。</blockquote></p><p> “Well, I think the trend broke, so we did eventually” take out “the 50-day moving average…and it broke violently yesterday … and I think you gotta pay attention to that, Wilson said in his CNBC interview.</p><p><blockquote>“威尔逊在接受 CNBC 采访时说：“我认为趋势被打破了，所以我们最终 ”拿出了 “50 天移动平均线.昨天它猛烈地突破了.我认为你必须注意这一点。</blockquote></p><p> “I respect the market and I would suggest other people respect the market… and what that’s saying is that that trend was challenged,” Wilson said.</p><p><blockquote>“威尔逊说：”我尊重市场，我建议其他人也尊重市场.这意味着这种趋势受到了挑战。</blockquote></p><p> “I’m comfortable with our call,” he said, pooh-poohing criticism that investors have consistently bought the dip in this euphoric, pandemic-recovery cycle.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我对我们的看涨期权感到满意，并对投资者在这个令人欣喜的大流行病复苏周期中一直逢低买入的批评嗤之以鼻。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-morgan-stanleys-is-starting-to-see-fire-and-ice-and-a-bear-market-drop-as-more-likely-for-stock-market-investors-11632249935?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-morgan-stanleys-is-starting-to-see-fire-and-ice-and-a-bear-market-drop-as-more-likely-for-stock-market-investors-11632249935?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118101852","content_text":"Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson sees the bull market ending in fire, though it could end in ice.\nInvoking the imagery from the Robert Frost poem “Fire & Ice,” the Morgan Stanley strategist said that he sees earnings revisions from American corporations “and higher frequency macro data” pointing to a decelerating economy, “amid demand pull forward, supply chain issues and margin pressure,” which he forecasts could lead to a 20% drop, a near-term outcome that he describes as “ice” for investors, in a research note dated Sept. 20.\nWilson wrote that he is starting to see a 20% fall as a “more likely” outcome for equity markets. However, during an interview on CNBC on Tuesday, the strategist maintained that 10% is still his “base case” scenario and held his forecast for the S&P 500 index to end the year around 4,000.\nA fall of at least 20% from a recent peak is a widely accepted definition of a bear market, while a drop of 10% defines a correction.\nHis “fire” scenario, which he speculates would lead to a 10% slide for the market, would be precipitated by the Federal Reserve initiating its efforts to “remove monetary accommodation in response to an overheating economy.”\nThe Fed will conclude its September meeting on Wednesday, and release an updated policy statement and a new set of projections for interest rates, including 2024 for the first time.\nThe equity market already has been under selling pressure for several sessions before Monday’s slump which was partially attributed to concerns about possible global systemic risk resulting from a potential debt default by one of China’s biggest property developers: Evergrande 3333, -0.44%.\nOn Monday, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.08% and the Nasdaq Composite COMP, +0.22% notched the worst daily declines since May 12 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, -0.15% registered the sharpest one-day fall since July 19.\nThe S&P 500 hasn’t seen a 5% pullback from its peak in about 220 sessions, the longest run since 2016, when the market went 404 sessions without falling by at least 5% peak to trough, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nMonday’s fall has the index about 4% from its Sept. 2 record close, while the Dow is off 4.65% from its Aug. 16 record and the Nasdaq Composite is down 4.3% from its Sept. 7 recent peak.\nWilson said that the break of the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average, which occurred on Friday and then deepened on Monday, represents a change of trend for investors.\n“Well, I think the trend broke, so we did eventually” take out “the 50-day moving average…and it broke violently yesterday … and I think you gotta pay attention to that, Wilson said in his CNBC interview.\n“I respect the market and I would suggest other people respect the market… and what that’s saying is that that trend was challenged,” Wilson said.\n“I’m comfortable with our call,” he said, pooh-poohing criticism that investors have consistently bought the dip in this euphoric, pandemic-recovery cycle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":869394565,"gmtCreate":1632241932157,"gmtModify":1632801807056,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hopefully this will boost the share price 🚀","listText":"Hopefully this will boost the share price 🚀","text":"Hopefully this will boost the share price 🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869394565","repostId":"2168504507","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2168504507","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"T-Reuters","id":"1086160438","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a113a995fbbc262262d15a5ce37e7bc5"},"pubTimestamp":1632119775,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2168504507?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 14:36","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Open Orphan Gets £5.7 Mln Influenza Human Challenge Study Contract<blockquote>Open Orphan 获得价值 570 万英镑的流感人类挑战研究合同</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2168504507","media":"T-Reuters","summary":"Open Orphan PLC :Open Orphan Plc  - £5.7M Influenza Human Challenge Study Contract Win.","content":"<p><html><body>Open Orphan <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLC\">PLC</a> <orph.l>:Open Orphan Plc  - £5.7M Influenza Human Challenge Study Contract Win.</orph.l></p><p><blockquote><html><body>开放式孤儿<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLC\">PLC</a><orph.l>:Open Orphan Plc - 赢得价值 570 万英镑的流感人类挑战研究合同。</orph.l></body></html></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Open Orphan Gets £5.7 Mln Influenza Human Challenge Study Contract<blockquote>Open Orphan 获得价值 570 万英镑的流感人类挑战研究合同</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; 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You might lose it all [Spurting]&nbsp;","listText":"High risk, high return and&nbsp;not for everyone especially that’s your means of income! You might lose it all [Spurting]&nbsp;","text":"High risk, high return and not for everyone especially that’s your means of income! You might lose it all [Spurting]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/884965181","repostId":"2167599164","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2167599164","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631777665,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2167599164?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-16 15:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Short-selling stocks -- and trying to play short squeezes -- can be very dangerous<blockquote>卖空股票——并试图进行逼空——可能非常危险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2167599164","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"How this type of high-stakes trading can influence stock prices\nIt's easy to follow and online tradi","content":"<p>How this type of high-stakes trading can influence stock prices</p><p><blockquote>这种高风险交易如何影响股票价格</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a0fe9f473bd854010152ae460a3ae3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>It's easy to follow and online trading fad using your phone - and just as easy to lose a lot of money.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>使用手机很容易跟随和在线交易时尚，也很容易损失很多钱。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investing and trading are two completely different activities. If you are new to either or haven't delved into the mechanics of short-selling, it's important to understand how this type of high-stakes trading can influence stock prices, even if you have no intention of doing it yourself.</p><p><blockquote>投资和交易是两种完全不同的活动。如果您是新手或尚未深入研究卖空机制，那么了解这种类型的高风险交易如何影响股票价格非常重要，即使您无意自己这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Shorting a stock is one of the riskiest things you can do as an investor. But the meme-stock craze -- essentially playing the other side of short trades -- can be nearly as risky because of the wild swings in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>作为投资者，做空股票是你能做的风险最大的事情之一。但由于股价的剧烈波动，模因股票热潮——本质上是做空交易的另一面——几乎同样具有风险。</blockquote></p><p> First, some definitions. In this article, investing means buying something and holding it, hoping that it goes up in value, that it provides income or both. Trading is buying and selling frequently to book gains.</p><p><blockquote>首先，一些定义。在这篇文章中，投资意味着购买某样东西并持有它，希望它升值，提供收入，或者两者兼而有之。交易是频繁买卖以获取收益。</blockquote></p><p> If you buy a stock, you have only risked the amount you invested. The stock can go to zero and you can lose 100% of the money you invested.</p><p><blockquote>如果您购买股票，您只承担了投资金额的风险。股票可能会跌至零，你可能会损失100%的投资。</blockquote></p><p> If you short-sell a stock, you are betting that the price will go down and there is no limit on your potential losses if the share price rises unexpectedly. This is not to say your loss potential is unlimited -- your broker will limit your losses by demanding more collateral to ensure you can cover those losses.</p><p><blockquote>如果你卖空一只股票，你是在赌价格会下跌，如果股价意外上涨，你的潜在损失是无限的。这并不是说您的损失潜力是无限的——您的经纪人将通过要求更多抵押品来限制您的损失，以确保您能够弥补这些损失。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The mechanics of shorting a stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>做空股票的机制</b></blockquote></p><p> Short-selling a stock is when you borrow shares of a company and sell them immediately because you expect the price to drop, after which you can repurchase the shares, return them to the lender and pocket the difference. It is a specialized strategy for some professional investors and traders but for individuals, it can be very risky and for more than one reason.</p><p><blockquote>卖空股票是指您借入一家公司的股票并立即出售，因为您预计价格会下跌，之后您可以回购股票，将其归还给贷方并将差价收入囊中。对于一些专业投资者和交易者来说，这是一种专门的策略，但对于个人来说，它可能非常危险，原因不止一个。</blockquote></p><p> Some professionals have profited from highly publicized bets against companies they felt were in poor financial condition. Some have even alleged that corporate management teams have misled investors through inflated claims about their products or services.</p><p><blockquote>一些专业人士从高度公开的押注中获利，押注他们认为财务状况不佳的公司。一些人甚至声称，企业管理团队通过夸大其产品或服务的声明来误导投资者。</blockquote></p><p> For example, shortseller Hindenburg Research's claims that Lordstown Motors&nbsp;had overstated the success of internal efforts to develop battery and fuel-cell capacity for electric trucks helped lead to a federal indictment against its founder, Trevor Milton, and the stock plunged.</p><p><blockquote>例如，卖空商兴登堡研究公司声称洛兹敦汽车公司夸大了内部开发电动卡车电池和燃料电池容量的努力的成功，这导致联邦对其创始人特雷弗·米尔顿提出起诉，该股暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> The above definition of short-selling is simple, but the devil is in the details, which will follow after some more definitions:</p><p><blockquote>以上对卖空的定义很简单，但魔鬼在细节中，接下来会有更多的定义：</blockquote></p><p> Having a long position in a stock means you own the shares and expect (or hope) they go up in price.</p><p><blockquote>持有股票多头头寸意味着您拥有该股票并期望（或希望）其价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Covering is when someone with a short position buys back the shares, to end the short trade and return them to the seller. The short-seller hopes to cover after the share price declines and book a profit. But the short-seller may also cover to limit losses if the price has gone up.</p><p><blockquote>回补是指持有空头头寸的人回购股票，结束空头交易并将其返还给卖方。卖空者希望在股价下跌后回补并获利。但如果价格上涨，卖空者也可能会回补以限制损失。</blockquote></p><p> Margin is the amount of money an investor (or trader) has borrowed from their broker. You can set up a margin account with your broker to buy shares essentially on credit as well as to short a stock, in both cases with a limit set by the broker. If you are betting that the stock price will go down but it instead goes up, you may need to put up more collateral to maintain the agreed-upon margin. Otherwise the broker will begin selling your securities.</p><p><blockquote>保证金是投资者（或交易者）从经纪人那里借来的金额。您可以在经纪人处设立保证金账户，主要通过信用购买股票，也可以做空股票，这两种情况都有经纪人设定的限额。如果您押注股价会下跌，但反而会上涨，您可能需要提供更多抵押品来维持商定的保证金。否则，经纪人将开始出售您的证券。</blockquote></p><p> This brings us to our final definition: A short squeeze takes place when many investors looking to cover short positions start buying a stock at the same time. The resulting feeding frenzy pushes the share price higher, compelling more traders with short positions to cover, and so on. This can happen to any trader, and if you have a large portion of your risk concentrated in one short position, you can lose your shirt.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了我们的最终定义：当许多寻求回补空头头寸的投资者同时开始购买股票时，就会发生挤空。由此产生的喂食狂潮推高了股价，迫使更多持有空头头寸的交易者回补，等等。这种情况可能发生在任何交易者身上，如果你将大部分风险集中在一个空头头寸上，你可能会输掉你的衬衫。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shorting is best left to the professionals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>做空最好留给专业人士</b></blockquote></p><p> One reason why the deck is stacked against an individual short-seller is that they cannot mitigate their risk by offsetting a large number of short positions with a large number of long positions.</p><p><blockquote>这副牌对单个卖空者不利的一个原因是，他们无法通过用大量多头头寸抵消大量空头头寸来降低风险。</blockquote></p><p> A professional short-seller might have dozens of long positions offsetting a large number of short positions -- both based on their own extensive research. They expect to get some trades wrong, but with the risk spread out, as well as their own triggers for when to cover, the overall risk to the pro manager from any one short squeeze may be relatively small.</p><p><blockquote>专业卖空者可能拥有数十个多头头寸来抵消大量空头头寸——两者都是基于他们自己的广泛研究。他们预计会犯错一些交易，但随着风险的分散，以及他们自己何时回补的触发因素，任何一次空头挤压给职业经理人带来的总体风险可能相对较小。</blockquote></p><p> And if you short a stock, there is the risk of a slow (or fast) bleed as you wait for a stock to go down enough for you to make your desired profit. For example, at one point in August 2021, shares of electric vehicle manufacturer Workhorse Group&nbsp;were 35.81% sold-short according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>如果你做空一只股票，当你等待一只股票下跌到足以让你获得你想要的利润时，就会有缓慢（或快速）出血的风险。例如，根据 FactSet 的数据，2021 年 8 月，电动汽车制造商 Workhorse Group 的股票一度被卖空 35.81%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> At that time, it cost 6% annually to borrow shares of Workhorse from a broker, according to one portfolio manager. That may not seem to be very much, but if that stock had gone up after you shorted it say, 14%, then you would be paying 20% a year for the privilege of making a risky trade.</p><p><blockquote>据一位投资组合经理称，当时从经纪人那里借入 Workhorse 股票的年成本为 6%。这似乎不是很多，但如果该股票在你做空后上涨了 14%，那么你每年将支付 20% 的费用来获得进行高风险交易的特权。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Trying to time short-squeezes -- the meme-stock craze</b></p><p><blockquote><b>试图把握做空时间——模因股票热潮</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's turn to a real example of short-selling and short squeezes. Professional traders had been shorting shares of videogame retailer GameStop&nbsp;and cinema operator AMC Entertainment&nbsp;because they didn't think the businesses had much of a future. But shares of both shot up in early 2021 because of short squeezes, which some traders posting in Reddit's WallStreetBets channel portrayed as a class struggle against hedge funds that had shorted the stocks. These so-called meme stocks have remained well above their pre-short-squeeze levels.</p><p><blockquote>让我们来看一个卖空和挤空的真实例子。专业交易员一直在做空视频游戏零售商游戏驿站和影院运营商AMC院线的股票，因为他们认为这些业务没有太大的未来。但由于做空挤压，两家公司的股价在 2021 年初飙升，一些交易员在 Reddit 的 WallStreetBets 频道上发帖，将其描述为针对做空股票的对冲基金的阶级斗争。这些所谓的模因股票仍远高于轧空前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Short interest in GameStop was higher than 100% through most of January, according to data provided by FactSet. Short interest in AMC Entertainment reached 57.81%.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 提供的数据显示，1 月份大部分时间里，游戏驿站的空头兴趣都高于 100%。AMC院线空头权益达到57.81%。</blockquote></p><p> Pros consider short interest above 30% to 40% to be dangerously high. Not only do high short percentages make it very expensive to borrow the shares but they create hair triggers for short squeezes. And that's what happened, with shares of both GameStop and AMC Entertainment going on roller-coaster rides.</p><p><blockquote>专业人士认为高于 30% 至 40% 的空头利息高得危险。高空头百分比不仅使借入股票变得非常昂贵，而且还为挤空创造了触发因素。事情就是这样发生的，游戏驿站和AMC院线的股票都经历了过山车般的波动。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, the squeezes worked for traders who got in and out at the right times. It wasn't so neat for others. This chart shows GameStop's stock price for the first eight months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，挤压对于在正确的时间进出的交易者来说是有效的。对其他人来说就没那么整洁了。这张图表显示了GameStop 2021年前八个月的股价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817e6cd2941b0510d18a938d2d34145e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>FACTSET</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>事实集</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The share of short interest for both stocks has since fallen sharply, making another short squeeze far less likely. The business prospects for both continue to look poor, especially relative to the broader stock market. Then again, both companies have taken advantage of the new interest among traders by issuing more shares to raise cash that could enable them to transform their businesses into healthier models.</p><p><blockquote>此后，这两只股票的空头份额大幅下降，再次挤空的可能性大大降低。两者的商业前景看起来仍然不佳，尤其是相对于更广泛的股票市场而言。话又说回来，两家公司都利用交易员的新兴趣，发行更多股票来筹集现金，使他们能够将业务转变为更健康的模式。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that shorting individual stocks can be very risky. If you cut this risk by shorting many stocks for particular reasons while offsetting those shorts with long positions and monitoring all positions continually, you won't have time for much else -- you will be a professional trader.</p><p><blockquote>底线是做空个股可能风险很大。如果您出于特定原因做空许多股票，同时用多头头寸抵消这些空头头寸并持续监控所有头寸来降低这种风险，那么您就没有时间做其他事情了——您将成为一名专业交易员。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Short-selling stocks -- and trying to play short squeezes -- can be very dangerous<blockquote>卖空股票——并试图进行逼空——可能非常危险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nShort-selling stocks -- and trying to play short squeezes -- can be very dangerous<blockquote>卖空股票——并试图进行逼空——可能非常危险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-16 15:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>How this type of high-stakes trading can influence stock prices</p><p><blockquote>这种高风险交易如何影响股票价格</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2a0fe9f473bd854010152ae460a3ae3\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>It's easy to follow and online trading fad using your phone - and just as easy to lose a lot of money.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>使用手机很容易跟随和在线交易时尚，也很容易损失很多钱。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Investing and trading are two completely different activities. If you are new to either or haven't delved into the mechanics of short-selling, it's important to understand how this type of high-stakes trading can influence stock prices, even if you have no intention of doing it yourself.</p><p><blockquote>投资和交易是两种完全不同的活动。如果您是新手或尚未深入研究卖空机制，那么了解这种类型的高风险交易如何影响股票价格非常重要，即使您无意自己这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Shorting a stock is one of the riskiest things you can do as an investor. But the meme-stock craze -- essentially playing the other side of short trades -- can be nearly as risky because of the wild swings in share prices.</p><p><blockquote>作为投资者，做空股票是你能做的风险最大的事情之一。但由于股价的剧烈波动，模因股票热潮——本质上是做空交易的另一面——几乎同样具有风险。</blockquote></p><p> First, some definitions. In this article, investing means buying something and holding it, hoping that it goes up in value, that it provides income or both. Trading is buying and selling frequently to book gains.</p><p><blockquote>首先，一些定义。在这篇文章中，投资意味着购买某样东西并持有它，希望它升值，提供收入，或者两者兼而有之。交易是频繁买卖以获取收益。</blockquote></p><p> If you buy a stock, you have only risked the amount you invested. The stock can go to zero and you can lose 100% of the money you invested.</p><p><blockquote>如果您购买股票，您只承担了投资金额的风险。股票可能会跌至零，你可能会损失100%的投资。</blockquote></p><p> If you short-sell a stock, you are betting that the price will go down and there is no limit on your potential losses if the share price rises unexpectedly. This is not to say your loss potential is unlimited -- your broker will limit your losses by demanding more collateral to ensure you can cover those losses.</p><p><blockquote>如果你卖空一只股票，你是在赌价格会下跌，如果股价意外上涨，你的潜在损失是无限的。这并不是说您的损失潜力是无限的——您的经纪人将通过要求更多抵押品来限制您的损失，以确保您能够弥补这些损失。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The mechanics of shorting a stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>做空股票的机制</b></blockquote></p><p> Short-selling a stock is when you borrow shares of a company and sell them immediately because you expect the price to drop, after which you can repurchase the shares, return them to the lender and pocket the difference. It is a specialized strategy for some professional investors and traders but for individuals, it can be very risky and for more than one reason.</p><p><blockquote>卖空股票是指您借入一家公司的股票并立即出售，因为您预计价格会下跌，之后您可以回购股票，将其归还给贷方并将差价收入囊中。对于一些专业投资者和交易者来说，这是一种专门的策略，但对于个人来说，它可能非常危险，原因不止一个。</blockquote></p><p> Some professionals have profited from highly publicized bets against companies they felt were in poor financial condition. Some have even alleged that corporate management teams have misled investors through inflated claims about their products or services.</p><p><blockquote>一些专业人士从高度公开的押注中获利，押注他们认为财务状况不佳的公司。一些人甚至声称，企业管理团队通过夸大其产品或服务的声明来误导投资者。</blockquote></p><p> For example, shortseller Hindenburg Research's claims that Lordstown Motors&nbsp;had overstated the success of internal efforts to develop battery and fuel-cell capacity for electric trucks helped lead to a federal indictment against its founder, Trevor Milton, and the stock plunged.</p><p><blockquote>例如，卖空商兴登堡研究公司声称洛兹敦汽车公司夸大了内部开发电动卡车电池和燃料电池容量的努力的成功，这导致联邦对其创始人特雷弗·米尔顿提出起诉，该股暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> The above definition of short-selling is simple, but the devil is in the details, which will follow after some more definitions:</p><p><blockquote>以上对卖空的定义很简单，但魔鬼在细节中，接下来会有更多的定义：</blockquote></p><p> Having a long position in a stock means you own the shares and expect (or hope) they go up in price.</p><p><blockquote>持有股票多头头寸意味着您拥有该股票并期望（或希望）其价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Covering is when someone with a short position buys back the shares, to end the short trade and return them to the seller. The short-seller hopes to cover after the share price declines and book a profit. But the short-seller may also cover to limit losses if the price has gone up.</p><p><blockquote>回补是指持有空头头寸的人回购股票，结束空头交易并将其返还给卖方。卖空者希望在股价下跌后回补并获利。但如果价格上涨，卖空者也可能会回补以限制损失。</blockquote></p><p> Margin is the amount of money an investor (or trader) has borrowed from their broker. You can set up a margin account with your broker to buy shares essentially on credit as well as to short a stock, in both cases with a limit set by the broker. If you are betting that the stock price will go down but it instead goes up, you may need to put up more collateral to maintain the agreed-upon margin. Otherwise the broker will begin selling your securities.</p><p><blockquote>保证金是投资者（或交易者）从经纪人那里借来的金额。您可以在经纪人处设立保证金账户，主要通过信用购买股票，也可以做空股票，这两种情况都有经纪人设定的限额。如果您押注股价会下跌，但反而会上涨，您可能需要提供更多抵押品来维持商定的保证金。否则，经纪人将开始出售您的证券。</blockquote></p><p> This brings us to our final definition: A short squeeze takes place when many investors looking to cover short positions start buying a stock at the same time. The resulting feeding frenzy pushes the share price higher, compelling more traders with short positions to cover, and so on. This can happen to any trader, and if you have a large portion of your risk concentrated in one short position, you can lose your shirt.</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了我们的最终定义：当许多寻求回补空头头寸的投资者同时开始购买股票时，就会发生挤空。由此产生的喂食狂潮推高了股价，迫使更多持有空头头寸的交易者回补，等等。这种情况可能发生在任何交易者身上，如果你将大部分风险集中在一个空头头寸上，你可能会输掉你的衬衫。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shorting is best left to the professionals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>做空最好留给专业人士</b></blockquote></p><p> One reason why the deck is stacked against an individual short-seller is that they cannot mitigate their risk by offsetting a large number of short positions with a large number of long positions.</p><p><blockquote>这副牌对单个卖空者不利的一个原因是，他们无法通过用大量多头头寸抵消大量空头头寸来降低风险。</blockquote></p><p> A professional short-seller might have dozens of long positions offsetting a large number of short positions -- both based on their own extensive research. They expect to get some trades wrong, but with the risk spread out, as well as their own triggers for when to cover, the overall risk to the pro manager from any one short squeeze may be relatively small.</p><p><blockquote>专业卖空者可能拥有数十个多头头寸来抵消大量空头头寸——两者都是基于他们自己的广泛研究。他们预计会犯错一些交易，但随着风险的分散，以及他们自己何时回补的触发因素，任何一次空头挤压给职业经理人带来的总体风险可能相对较小。</blockquote></p><p> And if you short a stock, there is the risk of a slow (or fast) bleed as you wait for a stock to go down enough for you to make your desired profit. For example, at one point in August 2021, shares of electric vehicle manufacturer Workhorse Group&nbsp;were 35.81% sold-short according to FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>如果你做空一只股票，当你等待一只股票下跌到足以让你获得你想要的利润时，就会有缓慢（或快速）出血的风险。例如，根据 FactSet 的数据，2021 年 8 月，电动汽车制造商 Workhorse Group 的股票一度被卖空 35.81%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> At that time, it cost 6% annually to borrow shares of Workhorse from a broker, according to one portfolio manager. That may not seem to be very much, but if that stock had gone up after you shorted it say, 14%, then you would be paying 20% a year for the privilege of making a risky trade.</p><p><blockquote>据一位投资组合经理称，当时从经纪人那里借入 Workhorse 股票的年成本为 6%。这似乎不是很多，但如果该股票在你做空后上涨了 14%，那么你每年将支付 20% 的费用来获得进行高风险交易的特权。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Trying to time short-squeezes -- the meme-stock craze</b></p><p><blockquote><b>试图把握做空时间——模因股票热潮</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's turn to a real example of short-selling and short squeezes. Professional traders had been shorting shares of videogame retailer GameStop&nbsp;and cinema operator AMC Entertainment&nbsp;because they didn't think the businesses had much of a future. But shares of both shot up in early 2021 because of short squeezes, which some traders posting in Reddit's WallStreetBets channel portrayed as a class struggle against hedge funds that had shorted the stocks. These so-called meme stocks have remained well above their pre-short-squeeze levels.</p><p><blockquote>让我们来看一个卖空和挤空的真实例子。专业交易员一直在做空视频游戏零售商游戏驿站和影院运营商AMC院线的股票，因为他们认为这些业务没有太大的未来。但由于做空挤压，两家公司的股价在 2021 年初飙升，一些交易员在 Reddit 的 WallStreetBets 频道上发帖，将其描述为针对做空股票的对冲基金的阶级斗争。这些所谓的模因股票仍远高于轧空前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> Short interest in GameStop was higher than 100% through most of January, according to data provided by FactSet. Short interest in AMC Entertainment reached 57.81%.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 提供的数据显示，1 月份大部分时间里，游戏驿站的空头兴趣都高于 100%。AMC院线空头权益达到57.81%。</blockquote></p><p> Pros consider short interest above 30% to 40% to be dangerously high. Not only do high short percentages make it very expensive to borrow the shares but they create hair triggers for short squeezes. And that's what happened, with shares of both GameStop and AMC Entertainment going on roller-coaster rides.</p><p><blockquote>专业人士认为高于 30% 至 40% 的空头利息高得危险。高空头百分比不仅使借入股票变得非常昂贵，而且还为挤空创造了触发因素。事情就是这样发生的，游戏驿站和AMC院线的股票都经历了过山车般的波动。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, the squeezes worked for traders who got in and out at the right times. It wasn't so neat for others. This chart shows GameStop's stock price for the first eight months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，挤压对于在正确的时间进出的交易者来说是有效的。对其他人来说就没那么整洁了。这张图表显示了GameStop 2021年前八个月的股价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/817e6cd2941b0510d18a938d2d34145e\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>FACTSET</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>事实集</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The share of short interest for both stocks has since fallen sharply, making another short squeeze far less likely. The business prospects for both continue to look poor, especially relative to the broader stock market. Then again, both companies have taken advantage of the new interest among traders by issuing more shares to raise cash that could enable them to transform their businesses into healthier models.</p><p><blockquote>此后，这两只股票的空头份额大幅下降，再次挤空的可能性大大降低。两者的商业前景看起来仍然不佳，尤其是相对于更广泛的股票市场而言。话又说回来，两家公司都利用交易员的新兴趣，发行更多股票来筹集现金，使他们能够将业务转变为更健康的模式。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that shorting individual stocks can be very risky. If you cut this risk by shorting many stocks for particular reasons while offsetting those shorts with long positions and monitoring all positions continually, you won't have time for much else -- you will be a professional trader.</p><p><blockquote>底线是做空个股可能风险很大。如果您出于特定原因做空许多股票，同时用多头头寸抵消这些空头头寸并持续监控所有头寸来降低这种风险，那么您就没有时间做其他事情了——您将成为一名专业交易员。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/short-selling-stocks-and-trying-to-play-short-squeezes-can-be-very-dangerous-11631716710?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/short-selling-stocks-and-trying-to-play-short-squeezes-can-be-very-dangerous-11631716710?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2167599164","content_text":"How this type of high-stakes trading can influence stock prices\nIt's easy to follow and online trading fad using your phone - and just as easy to lose a lot of money.\nInvesting and trading are two completely different activities. If you are new to either or haven't delved into the mechanics of short-selling, it's important to understand how this type of high-stakes trading can influence stock prices, even if you have no intention of doing it yourself.\nShorting a stock is one of the riskiest things you can do as an investor. But the meme-stock craze -- essentially playing the other side of short trades -- can be nearly as risky because of the wild swings in share prices.\nFirst, some definitions. In this article, investing means buying something and holding it, hoping that it goes up in value, that it provides income or both. Trading is buying and selling frequently to book gains.\nIf you buy a stock, you have only risked the amount you invested. The stock can go to zero and you can lose 100% of the money you invested.\nIf you short-sell a stock, you are betting that the price will go down and there is no limit on your potential losses if the share price rises unexpectedly. This is not to say your loss potential is unlimited -- your broker will limit your losses by demanding more collateral to ensure you can cover those losses.\nThe mechanics of shorting a stock\nShort-selling a stock is when you borrow shares of a company and sell them immediately because you expect the price to drop, after which you can repurchase the shares, return them to the lender and pocket the difference. It is a specialized strategy for some professional investors and traders but for individuals, it can be very risky and for more than one reason.\nSome professionals have profited from highly publicized bets against companies they felt were in poor financial condition. Some have even alleged that corporate management teams have misled investors through inflated claims about their products or services.\nFor example, shortseller Hindenburg Research's claims that Lordstown Motors had overstated the success of internal efforts to develop battery and fuel-cell capacity for electric trucks helped lead to a federal indictment against its founder, Trevor Milton, and the stock plunged.\nThe above definition of short-selling is simple, but the devil is in the details, which will follow after some more definitions:\nHaving a long position in a stock means you own the shares and expect (or hope) they go up in price.\nCovering is when someone with a short position buys back the shares, to end the short trade and return them to the seller. The short-seller hopes to cover after the share price declines and book a profit. But the short-seller may also cover to limit losses if the price has gone up.\nMargin is the amount of money an investor (or trader) has borrowed from their broker. You can set up a margin account with your broker to buy shares essentially on credit as well as to short a stock, in both cases with a limit set by the broker. If you are betting that the stock price will go down but it instead goes up, you may need to put up more collateral to maintain the agreed-upon margin. Otherwise the broker will begin selling your securities.\nThis brings us to our final definition: A short squeeze takes place when many investors looking to cover short positions start buying a stock at the same time. The resulting feeding frenzy pushes the share price higher, compelling more traders with short positions to cover, and so on. This can happen to any trader, and if you have a large portion of your risk concentrated in one short position, you can lose your shirt.\nShorting is best left to the professionals\nOne reason why the deck is stacked against an individual short-seller is that they cannot mitigate their risk by offsetting a large number of short positions with a large number of long positions.\nA professional short-seller might have dozens of long positions offsetting a large number of short positions -- both based on their own extensive research. They expect to get some trades wrong, but with the risk spread out, as well as their own triggers for when to cover, the overall risk to the pro manager from any one short squeeze may be relatively small.\nAnd if you short a stock, there is the risk of a slow (or fast) bleed as you wait for a stock to go down enough for you to make your desired profit. For example, at one point in August 2021, shares of electric vehicle manufacturer Workhorse Group were 35.81% sold-short according to FactSet.\nAt that time, it cost 6% annually to borrow shares of Workhorse from a broker, according to one portfolio manager. That may not seem to be very much, but if that stock had gone up after you shorted it say, 14%, then you would be paying 20% a year for the privilege of making a risky trade.\nTrying to time short-squeezes -- the meme-stock craze\nLet's turn to a real example of short-selling and short squeezes. Professional traders had been shorting shares of videogame retailer GameStop and cinema operator AMC Entertainment because they didn't think the businesses had much of a future. But shares of both shot up in early 2021 because of short squeezes, which some traders posting in Reddit's WallStreetBets channel portrayed as a class struggle against hedge funds that had shorted the stocks. These so-called meme stocks have remained well above their pre-short-squeeze levels.\nShort interest in GameStop was higher than 100% through most of January, according to data provided by FactSet. Short interest in AMC Entertainment reached 57.81%.\nPros consider short interest above 30% to 40% to be dangerously high. Not only do high short percentages make it very expensive to borrow the shares but they create hair triggers for short squeezes. And that's what happened, with shares of both GameStop and AMC Entertainment going on roller-coaster rides.\nTo be sure, the squeezes worked for traders who got in and out at the right times. It wasn't so neat for others. This chart shows GameStop's stock price for the first eight months of 2021.\nFACTSET\nThe share of short interest for both stocks has since fallen sharply, making another short squeeze far less likely. The business prospects for both continue to look poor, especially relative to the broader stock market. Then again, both companies have taken advantage of the new interest among traders by issuing more shares to raise cash that could enable them to transform their businesses into healthier models.\nThe bottom line is that shorting individual stocks can be very risky. If you cut this risk by shorting many stocks for particular reasons while offsetting those shorts with long positions and monitoring all positions continually, you won't have time for much else -- you will be a professional trader.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WKHS":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"RIDE":0.9,"GME":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"AMC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881134578,"gmtCreate":1631315977694,"gmtModify":1631889375501,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gather your funds to buy in the dip [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Gather your funds to buy in the dip [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Gather your funds to buy in the dip [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881134578","repostId":"2166897344","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883111049,"gmtCreate":1631225268381,"gmtModify":1631889375505,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Agrees! Market goes up and down. Hold on tight and buy in the dip [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Agrees! Market goes up and down. Hold on tight and buy in the dip [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Agrees! Market goes up and down. Hold on tight and buy in the dip [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883111049","repostId":"2166317474","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889563744,"gmtCreate":1631159132288,"gmtModify":1631889375505,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Risky but definitely there’s potential 🚀","listText":"Risky but definitely there’s potential 🚀","text":"Risky but definitely there’s potential 🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889563744","repostId":"1138338668","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880874910,"gmtCreate":1631050024830,"gmtModify":1631889375506,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Be prepared to buy in the next dip [Tongue]&nbsp;","listText":"Be prepared to buy in the next dip [Tongue]&nbsp;","text":"Be prepared to buy in the next dip [Tongue]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880874910","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊!在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 20%，连续七个月上涨，并一路创下 50 多个新高。此外，去年市场从 2020 年 3 月的低点反弹了 68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨速度。刺激支出已见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。更重要的是，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。对于越来越昂贵的股票持有者来说，这些都不太可能满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，做好准备迎接波动性下跌，这相互矛盾地推动巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。“Nuveen 全球股票首席投资官赛拉-马利克（Saira Malik）说：”万物反弹已经过去。“这不会是一股急剧上涨的经济潮流，让所有船只都离开这里”。</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识。<i>巴伦</i>最近咨询过。所有人都看到标普500在周四收盘价 4536 点附近收盘。他们的平均目标：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>与最近的趋势相比，明年的涨幅也显得微不足道。该集团预计 2022 年标普500将再增长 6%，升至 4,800 左右。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的 21 倍，债券收益率很低，现金收益率在考虑通货膨胀因素后几乎为零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察家建议关注 “优质 ”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、停滞不前的备忘录股和数字世界的狗狗币。在股票中，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不佳，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅反弹是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免 Covid 大流行病造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美国央行每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并将投资者推向包括股票在内的风险更高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买规模，此举可能会动摇各种风险资产。“摩根士丹利（atMorgan Stanley）首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师迈克-威尔逊（Mike Wilson）说：”对我们来说，这很简单：缩减规模就是收紧规模。“这是（美联储）远离最大限度宽松的第一步。他们这次对此非常精打细算，但底线是这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>战略家们指出，政府的刺激支出也达到了顶峰。每周 300 美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于 9 月 6 日到期。尽管国会似乎可能会在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约 5500 亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分摊多年。基础设施刺激措施将在短期内对占美国国内生产总值增长近 70% 的消费支出的提振作用，远不及去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>民主党批准的预算法案只应遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施的支出，以及其他政党优先事项。国会可能会投票提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这笔支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他充满政治色彩的问题同样可能导致股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计支出法案，以避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>十月关闭。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对新冠肺炎德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要局限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本看法并不包括新一波会破坏经济增长的封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是最近通货膨胀一直非常火爆。美国消费者价格指数在 6 月和 7 月均以年化 5.4% 的速度上涨--美联储的评级是暂时的，尽管其他人并不确定。战略家们站在鲍威尔一边；他们预计明年通货膨胀率将大幅下降。他们的预测降幅在 2.5% 至 3.5% 之间，他们认为这对消费者和企业来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，高于 2.5% 的通胀率，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着现在超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德多资产策略集团（BlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group）收入投资主管迈克尔-弗雷德里克斯（Michael Fredericks）说：”我们认为通胀将继续高于金融危机以来的水平，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们就很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。“因此，债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将是逐步发生的。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比目前的水平高出约 35 个基点，即百分之一个百分点，但低于 2021 年 3 月高点时达到的 1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10 年期国债收益率可能达到 2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不算大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股市来说意义更大。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会给股票估值带来压力，原因有二。收益率较高的债券会给股票带来竞争，如果按较高的利率贴现，公司未来的收益在目前就毫无价值。尽管如此，2% 左右的 10 年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至 Covid 之前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师也认为标普500持有的市盈率远高于其 30 年平均水平 16 倍远期市盈率。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破了 23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要 10 年期国债收益率保持在 2% 范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够保持在高位。在收益率大幅上升或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力之前，回到 16 倍的长期平均水平是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>他表示，如果收益率飙升至 2% 或 2.25% 以上，投资者可能会开始更认真地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">状态</a>Street'schief 投资组合策略师 Gaurav Mallik： “我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10 年期国债收益率）超过 2%，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出股市的估值风险是不对称的： “他说：”考虑到增长放缓和我们在周期中的位置，市盈率不太可能上升，而且很有可能下降 10% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，如果 16 到 23 倍的远期市盈率是这个范围，“你已经处于这个范围的高端了。潜在的风险大于回报”。</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率的压缩，这使得利润增长之路更加重要。在经历了去年的盈利低迷之后，策略师平均预计标普500今年的盈利将跃升 46%，达到约 204 美元。随后，2022 年可能会上涨 9%，达到约 222.50 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是 2022 年联邦企业税率的提高。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定，投资者有望听到更多关于潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25% 的联邦企业利润率可能是一个妥协数字，高于 2018 年以来的 21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的 28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约 5%。随着民主党和解法案的临近，该指数可能会下降类似的幅度，但影响应仅限于最初的修正。与 2017 年 12 月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>撇开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应忽视大局： 美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。“马利克说：”周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长至少将持续到 2022 年，我们希望偏向具有这种风险敞口的资产。</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将非常火爆。当国内生产总值增长高于平均水平时，价值就会战胜增长，周期性股票会战胜防御性股票。”- Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场 道富银行策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和技术。这种方法既包括银行和矿业等经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）美国股票策略主管洛里-卡尔瓦西纳（Lori Calvasina）同样采取杠铃策略，同时投资周期性和成长性。她喜欢的行业是能源、金融和科技。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”金融和能源领域的估值仍然比成长型行业（如科技或非必需消费品）更具吸引力。“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的 Covid 浪潮......今明两年我们将迎来火热的经济，传统上，当 GDP 增长高于平均水平时，价值战胜增长，周期性战胜防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是至关重要的，尤其是进入 2022 年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”历史的剧本是，从经济衰退中走出来，往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量超越业绩，然后领导层会回到高质量。“但从低质量到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师倾向于经济敏感股票和稳定增长股票的组合，包括科技股。金融股应该表现良好，尤其是在债券收益率上升的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管具有质量属性的股票今年夏天的表现优于大盘，但根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析认为，自去年11月首次报道积极的疫苗消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德（BlackRock）的弗雷德里克斯（Fredericks）说：”我们正在进入一个周期中期环境，此时潜在的经济增长依然强劲，但势头开始放缓。“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤为出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融业，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的必需消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>该公司的股票策略主管克里斯托弗-哈维（Christopher Harvey）认为，大流行后的受益者和防御性敞口相结合才是最佳选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票--在今年秋季市场不确定或压力时期，这些股票的表现应该会优于平均水平--并且 “Covid贝塔值 ”较高，即对大流行病的好消息或坏消息敏感。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师不得不将这些股票评级相当于买入。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”近期存在经济不确定性、利率不确定性和 Covid 风险，一般来说，9 月前后我们正处于一年中季节性疲软的时期。“如果我们能在低体积和高 Covid beta 之间取得平衡，我们就能减轻即将到来的许多不确定性和波动性，这些催化剂的时间安排。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望有这种[重新开放的风险敞口]”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的高Covid贝塔值低波动性股票名单包括苹果公司（AAPL）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">伊克维亚</a>控股公司 (IQV) 和马斯科 (MAS)。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。景顺 KBW 银行交易所交易基金 (KBWB) 为美国该行业提供广泛的投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”我们喜欢估值[和]信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且 Covid 贝塔系数也更高。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>更便宜的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股票市场的其他大部分相反，更高的利率将成为银行的推动力，然后银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>威尔逊说。“如今，与其他行业相比，医疗保健行业每单位增长的成本要低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，医疗保健行业为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”Health insurerHumana (HUM) 将威尔逊的 “新鲜资金买入清单”评级为买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen 的 Malik 也将目光投向了医疗保健行业，即制药和生物技术行业，以获得价格相对较低的增长机会。她指出，Seagen (SGEN) 专注于肿瘤药物，可能是制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维 (ABBV)，该公司的远期市盈率为 8 倍，股息收益率为 4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层可以限制损害，并看到这家价值 2000 亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都经历了艰难的时期。Seagen 上周下跌超过 8%，至 152 美元左右，原因是有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官最近出售了大量股票。周三，艾伯维股价下跌 7%，至 112.27 美元，此前美国食品和药物管理局要求 JAK 抑制剂贴上新的警告标签，JAK 抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，包括以下成分之一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生公司 (JNJ) 和思科系统公司 (CSCO) 是其他通过<i>巴伦</i>质量属性屏幕。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳步上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点回落，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊!在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 20%，连续七个月上涨，并一路创下 50 多个新高。此外，去年市场从 2020 年 3 月的低点反弹了 68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨速度。刺激支出已见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。更重要的是，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。对于越来越昂贵的股票持有者来说，这些都不太可能满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，做好准备迎接波动性下跌，这相互矛盾地推动巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。“Nuveen 全球股票首席投资官赛拉-马利克（Saira Malik）说：”万物反弹已经过去。“这不会是一股急剧上涨的经济潮流，让所有船只都离开这里”。</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识。<i>巴伦</i>最近咨询过。所有人都看到标普500在周四收盘价 4536 点附近收盘。他们的平均目标：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>与最近的趋势相比，明年的涨幅也显得微不足道。该集团预计 2022 年标普500将再增长 6%，升至 4,800 左右。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的 21 倍，债券收益率很低，现金收益率在考虑通货膨胀因素后几乎为零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察家建议关注 “优质 ”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、停滞不前的备忘录股和数字世界的狗狗币。在股票中，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不佳，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅反弹是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免 Covid 大流行病造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美国央行每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并将投资者推向包括股票在内的风险更高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买规模，此举可能会动摇各种风险资产。“摩根士丹利（atMorgan Stanley）首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师迈克-威尔逊（Mike Wilson）说：”对我们来说，这很简单：缩减规模就是收紧规模。“这是（美联储）远离最大限度宽松的第一步。他们这次对此非常精打细算，但底线是这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>战略家们指出，政府的刺激支出也达到了顶峰。每周 300 美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于 9 月 6 日到期。尽管国会似乎可能会在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约 5500 亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分摊多年。基础设施刺激措施将在短期内对占美国国内生产总值增长近 70% 的消费支出的提振作用，远不及去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>民主党批准的预算法案只应遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施的支出，以及其他政党优先事项。国会可能会投票提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这笔支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他充满政治色彩的问题同样可能导致股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计支出法案，以避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>十月关闭。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对新冠肺炎德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要局限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本看法并不包括新一波会破坏经济增长的封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是最近通货膨胀一直非常火爆。美国消费者价格指数在 6 月和 7 月均以年化 5.4% 的速度上涨--美联储的评级是暂时的，尽管其他人并不确定。战略家们站在鲍威尔一边；他们预计明年通货膨胀率将大幅下降。他们的预测降幅在 2.5% 至 3.5% 之间，他们认为这对消费者和企业来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，高于 2.5% 的通胀率，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着现在超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德多资产策略集团（BlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group）收入投资主管迈克尔-弗雷德里克斯（Michael Fredericks）说：”我们认为通胀将继续高于金融危机以来的水平，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们就很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。“因此，债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将是逐步发生的。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比目前的水平高出约 35 个基点，即百分之一个百分点，但低于 2021 年 3 月高点时达到的 1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10 年期国债收益率可能达到 2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不算大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股市来说意义更大。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会给股票估值带来压力，原因有二。收益率较高的债券会给股票带来竞争，如果按较高的利率贴现，公司未来的收益在目前就毫无价值。尽管如此，2% 左右的 10 年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至 Covid 之前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师也认为标普500持有的市盈率远高于其 30 年平均水平 16 倍远期市盈率。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破了 23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要 10 年期国债收益率保持在 2% 范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够保持在高位。在收益率大幅上升或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力之前，回到 16 倍的长期平均水平是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>他表示，如果收益率飙升至 2% 或 2.25% 以上，投资者可能会开始更认真地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">状态</a>Street'schief 投资组合策略师 Gaurav Mallik： “我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10 年期国债收益率）超过 2%，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出股市的估值风险是不对称的： “他说：”考虑到增长放缓和我们在周期中的位置，市盈率不太可能上升，而且很有可能下降 10% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，如果 16 到 23 倍的远期市盈率是这个范围，“你已经处于这个范围的高端了。潜在的风险大于回报”。</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率的压缩，这使得利润增长之路更加重要。在经历了去年的盈利低迷之后，策略师平均预计标普500今年的盈利将跃升 46%，达到约 204 美元。随后，2022 年可能会上涨 9%，达到约 222.50 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是 2022 年联邦企业税率的提高。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定，投资者有望听到更多关于潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25% 的联邦企业利润率可能是一个妥协数字，高于 2018 年以来的 21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的 28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约 5%。随着民主党和解法案的临近，该指数可能会下降类似的幅度，但影响应仅限于最初的修正。与 2017 年 12 月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>撇开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应忽视大局： 美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。“马利克说：”周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长至少将持续到 2022 年，我们希望偏向具有这种风险敞口的资产。</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将非常火爆。当国内生产总值增长高于平均水平时，价值就会战胜增长，周期性股票会战胜防御性股票。”- Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场 道富银行策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和技术。这种方法既包括银行和矿业等经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）美国股票策略主管洛里-卡尔瓦西纳（Lori Calvasina）同样采取杠铃策略，同时投资周期性和成长性。她喜欢的行业是能源、金融和科技。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”金融和能源领域的估值仍然比成长型行业（如科技或非必需消费品）更具吸引力。“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的 Covid 浪潮......今明两年我们将迎来火热的经济，传统上，当 GDP 增长高于平均水平时，价值战胜增长，周期性战胜防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是至关重要的，尤其是进入 2022 年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”历史的剧本是，从经济衰退中走出来，往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量超越业绩，然后领导层会回到高质量。“但从低质量到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师倾向于经济敏感股票和稳定增长股票的组合，包括科技股。金融股应该表现良好，尤其是在债券收益率上升的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管具有质量属性的股票今年夏天的表现优于大盘，但根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析认为，自去年11月首次报道积极的疫苗消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德（BlackRock）的弗雷德里克斯（Fredericks）说：”我们正在进入一个周期中期环境，此时潜在的经济增长依然强劲，但势头开始放缓。“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤为出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融业，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的必需消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>该公司的股票策略主管克里斯托弗-哈维（Christopher Harvey）认为，大流行后的受益者和防御性敞口相结合才是最佳选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票--在今年秋季市场不确定或压力时期，这些股票的表现应该会优于平均水平--并且 “Covid贝塔值 ”较高，即对大流行病的好消息或坏消息敏感。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师不得不将这些股票评级相当于买入。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”近期存在经济不确定性、利率不确定性和 Covid 风险，一般来说，9 月前后我们正处于一年中季节性疲软的时期。“如果我们能在低体积和高 Covid beta 之间取得平衡，我们就能减轻即将到来的许多不确定性和波动性，这些催化剂的时间安排。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望有这种[重新开放的风险敞口]”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的高Covid贝塔值低波动性股票名单包括苹果公司（AAPL）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">伊克维亚</a>控股公司 (IQV) 和马斯科 (MAS)。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。景顺 KBW 银行交易所交易基金 (KBWB) 为美国该行业提供广泛的投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”我们喜欢估值[和]信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且 Covid 贝塔系数也更高。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>更便宜的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股票市场的其他大部分相反，更高的利率将成为银行的推动力，然后银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>威尔逊说。“如今，与其他行业相比，医疗保健行业每单位增长的成本要低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，医疗保健行业为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”Health insurerHumana (HUM) 将威尔逊的 “新鲜资金买入清单”评级为买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen 的 Malik 也将目光投向了医疗保健行业，即制药和生物技术行业，以获得价格相对较低的增长机会。她指出，Seagen (SGEN) 专注于肿瘤药物，可能是制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维 (ABBV)，该公司的远期市盈率为 8 倍，股息收益率为 4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层可以限制损害，并看到这家价值 2000 亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都经历了艰难的时期。Seagen 上周下跌超过 8%，至 152 美元左右，原因是有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官最近出售了大量股票。周三，艾伯维股价下跌 7%，至 112.27 美元，此前美国食品和药物管理局要求 JAK 抑制剂贴上新的警告标签，JAK 抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，包括以下成分之一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生公司 (JNJ) 和思科系统公司 (CSCO) 是其他通过<i>巴伦</i>质量属性屏幕。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳步上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点回落，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817206382,"gmtCreate":1630964991446,"gmtModify":1631889375510,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great tips [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Great tips [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Great tips [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817206382","repostId":"1186375251","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186375251","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630909435,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1186375251?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 14:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点投资的 3 条黄金法则</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186375251","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMarkets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correcti","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Markets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.</li>  <li>As markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.</li>  <li>What should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?</li>  <li>In this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5f0c9f1aacfbc6d8c78d0e84da5fc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>phive2015/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场每周继续创下历史新高，并且在 200 多个交易日中没有出现明显的调整。</li><li>随着市场反弹，许多投资者开始固步自封，而处于历史高点的投资决策实际上比以往任何时候都更加重要。</li><li>在当今的市场上，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格抛售，还是今天买入仍然能获得丰厚的回报？</li><li>在这篇文章中，我将分享我关于如何在今天这样的历史高点进行投资的三条黄金法则。这些信息对你未来在市场上创造财富非常有价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>phive2015/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.</p><p><blockquote>2021年股市一路狂飙。8月底，标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）年初至今上涨20.4%。有趣的是，该指数一直在非常狭窄的上涨区间内交易，并且在208个交易日中没有出现5%的修正。虽然大多数投资者并不认为这是一种异常现象，但实际上却是。这两种事件在股市历史上只发生过7次。我们显然生活在一个不正常的时代。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ccc72065c84083443d6be7f03482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.</p><p><blockquote>每天仔细考虑你所做的投资决策是很重要的。最重要的是，所有的购买或销售都会影响你未来在市场上的财富积累。</blockquote></p><p> However, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在像今天这样的极端反弹期间，反思你的投资决策更加重要。问问那些在互联网泡沫期间承担高风险或在 Covid-19 崩盘期间恐慌性抛售的投资者。这无疑对他们的长期回报产生了巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> The importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.</p><p><blockquote>今天的投资决策对你的长期回报很重要，这就是为什么我选择写我关于如何在历史高点投资的三条黄金法则。你应该如何对待今天的市场，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格卖出并等待调整发生，还是在这些水平买入时仍然能产生丰厚的回报？这篇文章将提供这些百万美元问题的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don't get caught by greediness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要被贪婪抓住</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从最重要的规则开始。避免贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&amp;P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通的数据，在过去的20年里，投资者的平均年回报率仅为2.9%。因此，它们的表现明显逊于一般市场，因为标普500在此期间的年回报率为 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者表现不佳的最重要原因是什么？情感人类行为。</blockquote></p><p> The average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.</p><p><blockquote>普通投资者受到媒体头条、股价变动和其他投资者行为的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&amp;P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们到达了一个极度看涨的股市环境。上个财报季是股市历史上最伟大的财报季之一。标普500每股收益同比增长 94.5%，86.1% 的成分股超出分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> As a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:</p><p><blockquote>由于这种看涨环境，分析师正在大幅提高对未来几个季度的预期。他们现在预计，到 2022 年底，每股收益将大幅升至 217.96 美元，较大流行前的高点 157.12 美元大幅回升。这样的复苏看起来很乐观，因为在过去的经济周期中，需要 7-12 年才能实现这一目标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1accc921d16b11ec13ed94686b9cfe75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于标准普尔全球数据的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Will earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度盈利真的会继续强劲复苏吗？还是分析师的假设太贪婪了？</blockquote></p><p> It wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们太贪婪，这也不是第一次了。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，他们也被自己的情绪所困扰。就标普500的盈利增长而言，90 年代是异常强劲的十年。因此，分析师完全忘记了下降周期也存在。他们将 2000 年后五年的年度每股收益增长指导提高到惊人的 15%。根据他们的说法，这种高增长率证明了股票交易市盈率创纪录的合理性，许多投资者被骗进了这个故事。</blockquote></p><p> What happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>后来发生了什么？经济没有繁荣，而是陷入了衰退，花了3年时间才恢复过来。2003 年的收益比分析师 2000 年的预测低了近 50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&amp;P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场定价符合分析师的预期，而不是考虑到可能的经济衰退，标普500崩盘并花了 7 年时间才恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0081f4a9c3ee43b20684f113cb04ef9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's get back to today... The P/E of the S&amp;P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到今天……标普500目前的市盈率为25.4倍，与历史水平相比极高。人们普遍认为盈利将继续大幅增长，这证明了这一点。因此，到 2022 年底，该比率将降至可接受的 20.7 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Now ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>现在问问自己，未来几个季度盈利增长继续高于历史平均水平的可能性有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.</p><p><blockquote>利率已经是0%了。印钞机快没纸了。联邦债务水平正在达到上限。被压抑的需求和刺激支票已经导致过去几个季度的消费者支出创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.</p><p><blockquote>也许，只是也许，分析师对他们的假设太贪婪了？也许最近的经济复苏是不可持续的，将会降温？也许我的假设（灰线）比市场预测（红线）更有可能？如果是这样，市场的 fwd 2022 市盈率为 23.6 倍，这确实很贵。</blockquote></p><p> I'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定这会发生，没人会。但这肯定是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61310c3c851b181ceb1fb3cc8862fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.</p><p><blockquote>这种贪婪也反映在图表中。如下图所示，牛市可以分为四个周期。强劲增长、熊市陷阱、媒体关注和贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，2013-2021年的牛市与1994-2000年的牛市几乎完全相同。此时此刻，纳斯达克指数（QQQ）看起来已经准备好开始最后的极度贪婪阶段。媒体将最近的反弹视为“新常态”，投资者正在大量买入FOMO，因为股票“只能上涨”。因此，纳斯达克可能会在 2021 年最后几个月上涨接近 20,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> As a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，了解这些动态极其重要。你可能也会有全力投资风险资产的冲动。然而，在这个阶段变得贪婪可能会对你的长期回报构成重大威胁，因为随后可能会出现一场大熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c783bf0cff4c410846a27c2dc8c180b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Human behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.</p><p><blockquote>人类的行为使得不被市场情绪分散注意力变得极具挑战性。如果你能对市场保持客观的看法，这将极大地有利于你的回报。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.坚持投资，机会总是有的</blockquote></p><p> In short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，第一条规则说，你的决定永远不应该被情绪所左右，你应该继续关注潜在的基本面。随着今天市场变得越来越贪婪，估值达到极端水平，这意味着你应该开始出售股票并持有大量现金，对吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not really... You know, a wise man once said the following:</p><p><blockquote>不完全是……你知道，一位智者曾经说过这样一句话：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.</b>  I'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.</p><p><blockquote><b>这是股票市场，不是股票市场。</b>我不完全确定是谁想出来的。但肯定是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> What does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？看，许多散户投资者根据整体市场前景买卖股票。如果他们不信任市场，无论如何都会不愿意投资。</blockquote></p><p> That's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.</p><p><blockquote>这不是看待市场的好方法。有近4,000只股票可供选择，无论市场如何发展，总会有有趣的投资机会产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.</p><p><blockquote>在一个普遍被高估的市场中，找到被低估的股票变得越来越具有挑战性，但肯定不是不可能的。问问沃伦·巴菲特。2000年，历史上被高估最严重的股市，他的投资工具伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）继续购买优质、被低估的资产。他的奉献得到了回报，在互联网高峰五年后，他获得了令人印象深刻的47%的回报率，而纳斯达克指数的回报率为-39%。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.</p><p><blockquote>罗素2000指数（IWM）是一个反映美国小盘股的指数，在互联网泡沫期间也非常有吸引力，2000年的市盈率为16倍（大盘股为24倍）。那些在泡沫期间投资这一被低估资产类别的人也产生了非常可观的回报。我可以想象，那些能够挑选出最好的小盘股的人比那些被过度炒作的科技股欺骗的人快乐得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c713a296e819a255b3be8ac6e504033d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.</p><p><blockquote>那么你今天应该做什么呢？我建议重新评估你所有的投资组合。将它们的估值与 3 年后的收益进行权衡，届时 Covid-19 中断（刺激措施、被压抑的需求等）消失。对你的假设要保守。如果一只股票与这些假设相比被严重高估，不要贪婪并卖出头寸。</blockquote></p><p> A great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.</p><p><blockquote>一个很好的例子是苹果公司（AAPL），它是今年最受欢迎的股票之一。由于其非常强劲的财务状况（上季度收入增长 36.4%），其市盈率在过去两年中翻了一番多，达到 30 倍。重要的是要明白，其最近的增长主要是由于不可持续的驱动因素，如几轮刺激支票。一旦这种情况消失，苹果的增长可能会回落到个位数（甚至可能在短期内为负），未来的回报将非常疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Don't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&amp;P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>不要把所有释放的资本都保留在现金中，尤其是在当前的通胀环境下。仍然有机会将这笔钱进行再投资。在我看来，小盘股是当今最具吸引力的资产类别，就像 2000 年一样。在最近表现不佳之后，罗素2000指数（代表所有美国小型股）今天的市盈率为15.6倍。这远低于标普500指数及其历史平均水平。有很多小盘股机会，未来将产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f132a93975b3b7fef86aff21c0b49bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yardeni</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚德尼</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.采用行之有效的投资策略选股</b></blockquote></p><p> Rule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.</p><p><blockquote>规则#1和#2在纸面上看起来很好，但在现实中很难执行。当紧要关头时，很难否认自己的情绪，并在估值过高的市场中找到有趣的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> That's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是#3发挥作用的地方：采用行之有效的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> With the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市即将到来的挑战，我相信在高度不确定的市场环境中，遵循预先确定的策略从未像今天这样重要。如果你使用过去行之有效的策略，你会在每个市场环境中感觉很棒。</blockquote></p><p> There are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>只要你坚持下去，有很多策略对你有用。我们坚信，我们在内部机会方面被低估的战略将在未来几年非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p> To find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找有吸引力的投资机会，我们每天都会跟踪内部购买情况。内部人士是首席财务官、首席执行官、董事会成员等。他们比市场上任何人都更了解自己的业务。如果他们看到股价和业务基本面之间脱节，他们可以购买股票来产生利润。您可以通过 SEC 文件或 openinsider.com 等网站每天跟踪这种所谓“聪明资金”的购买情况。</blockquote></p><p> We don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".</p><p><blockquote>我们不只是跟进内部购买。我们基于过去十年中超过一百万个数据点创建了三个算法，从所有内部购买中挑选出最好的。因此，我们坚持预先确定的计划，只购买基于特定基本面有吸引力的股票，称为“黄金选择”。</blockquote></p><p> It worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&amp;P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>它在过去非常有效。我们的回测显示，该策略在过去十年中产生了 47.2% 的年化回报率，是标普500指数的三倍。仅在2011年，它的表现略低于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05af9240a87a55641df0a7921ec0380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：内幕机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>我们坚信，无论市场表现如何，这一革命性的策略都将继续在股票市场为我们创造财富。给自己找一个像我们这样严格的、行之有效的策略，在即将到来的不确定性中，你可以依靠它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Do this at all-time highs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：在历史高点这样做</b></blockquote></p><p> Most stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?</p><p><blockquote>当创下历史新高时，大多数股市投资者都在固步自封。最重要的是，在这样的牛市里，什么事都不会出错吧？</blockquote></p><p> No, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>不，事情不是这样的。市场在周期中演变，那些不认识到适应这些周期重要性的人将面临疲软的长期回报。</blockquote></p><p> How should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:</p><p><blockquote>你应该如何接近今天的历史高点，以继续创造财富？以下是我的三条黄金法则：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>Don't get greedy.</b>As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.</li>  <li><b>Keep being invested.</b>Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.</li>  <li><b>Adopt a proven strategy.</b>Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>不要贪婪。</b>作为情绪行为的结果，当市场反弹时，你会想要承担更高的风险。永远不要跟随这些情绪，永远关注基本面。</li><li><b>继续投资。</b>不要仅仅因为市场被高估就不愿意投资股票。承认这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。每个市场环境中总有巨大的机会。如今，它们大多是低调的小盘股。</li><li><b>采用行之有效的策略。</b>投资并不容易，尤其是当事情开始向南发展的时候。采用严格的、行之有效的投资策略可以让生活变得更加轻松，并显着提高回报。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点投资的 3 条黄金法则</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点投资的 3 条黄金法则</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 14:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Markets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.</li>  <li>As markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.</li>  <li>What should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?</li>  <li>In this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5f0c9f1aacfbc6d8c78d0e84da5fc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>phive2015/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场每周继续创下历史新高，并且在 200 多个交易日中没有出现明显的调整。</li><li>随着市场反弹，许多投资者开始固步自封，而处于历史高点的投资决策实际上比以往任何时候都更加重要。</li><li>在当今的市场上，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格抛售，还是今天买入仍然能获得丰厚的回报？</li><li>在这篇文章中，我将分享我关于如何在今天这样的历史高点进行投资的三条黄金法则。这些信息对你未来在市场上创造财富非常有价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>phive2015/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.</p><p><blockquote>2021年股市一路狂飙。8月底，标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）年初至今上涨20.4%。有趣的是，该指数一直在非常狭窄的上涨区间内交易，并且在208个交易日中没有出现5%的修正。虽然大多数投资者并不认为这是一种异常现象，但实际上却是。这两种事件在股市历史上只发生过7次。我们显然生活在一个不正常的时代。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ccc72065c84083443d6be7f03482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.</p><p><blockquote>每天仔细考虑你所做的投资决策是很重要的。最重要的是，所有的购买或销售都会影响你未来在市场上的财富积累。</blockquote></p><p> However, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在像今天这样的极端反弹期间，反思你的投资决策更加重要。问问那些在互联网泡沫期间承担高风险或在 Covid-19 崩盘期间恐慌性抛售的投资者。这无疑对他们的长期回报产生了巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> The importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.</p><p><blockquote>今天的投资决策对你的长期回报很重要，这就是为什么我选择写我关于如何在历史高点投资的三条黄金法则。你应该如何对待今天的市场，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格卖出并等待调整发生，还是在这些水平买入时仍然能产生丰厚的回报？这篇文章将提供这些百万美元问题的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don't get caught by greediness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要被贪婪抓住</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从最重要的规则开始。避免贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&amp;P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通的数据，在过去的20年里，投资者的平均年回报率仅为2.9%。因此，它们的表现明显逊于一般市场，因为标普500在此期间的年回报率为 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者表现不佳的最重要原因是什么？情感人类行为。</blockquote></p><p> The average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.</p><p><blockquote>普通投资者受到媒体头条、股价变动和其他投资者行为的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&amp;P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们到达了一个极度看涨的股市环境。上个财报季是股市历史上最伟大的财报季之一。标普500每股收益同比增长 94.5%，86.1% 的成分股超出分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> As a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:</p><p><blockquote>由于这种看涨环境，分析师正在大幅提高对未来几个季度的预期。他们现在预计，到 2022 年底，每股收益将大幅升至 217.96 美元，较大流行前的高点 157.12 美元大幅回升。这样的复苏看起来很乐观，因为在过去的经济周期中，需要 7-12 年才能实现这一目标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1accc921d16b11ec13ed94686b9cfe75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于标准普尔全球数据的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Will earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度盈利真的会继续强劲复苏吗？还是分析师的假设太贪婪了？</blockquote></p><p> It wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们太贪婪，这也不是第一次了。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，他们也被自己的情绪所困扰。就标普500的盈利增长而言，90 年代是异常强劲的十年。因此，分析师完全忘记了下降周期也存在。他们将 2000 年后五年的年度每股收益增长指导提高到惊人的 15%。根据他们的说法，这种高增长率证明了股票交易市盈率创纪录的合理性，许多投资者被骗进了这个故事。</blockquote></p><p> What happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>后来发生了什么？经济没有繁荣，而是陷入了衰退，花了3年时间才恢复过来。2003 年的收益比分析师 2000 年的预测低了近 50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&amp;P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场定价符合分析师的预期，而不是考虑到可能的经济衰退，标普500崩盘并花了 7 年时间才恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0081f4a9c3ee43b20684f113cb04ef9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's get back to today... The P/E of the S&amp;P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到今天……标普500目前的市盈率为25.4倍，与历史水平相比极高。人们普遍认为盈利将继续大幅增长，这证明了这一点。因此，到 2022 年底，该比率将降至可接受的 20.7 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Now ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>现在问问自己，未来几个季度盈利增长继续高于历史平均水平的可能性有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.</p><p><blockquote>利率已经是0%了。印钞机快没纸了。联邦债务水平正在达到上限。被压抑的需求和刺激支票已经导致过去几个季度的消费者支出创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.</p><p><blockquote>也许，只是也许，分析师对他们的假设太贪婪了？也许最近的经济复苏是不可持续的，将会降温？也许我的假设（灰线）比市场预测（红线）更有可能？如果是这样，市场的 fwd 2022 市盈率为 23.6 倍，这确实很贵。</blockquote></p><p> I'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定这会发生，没人会。但这肯定是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61310c3c851b181ceb1fb3cc8862fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.</p><p><blockquote>这种贪婪也反映在图表中。如下图所示，牛市可以分为四个周期。强劲增长、熊市陷阱、媒体关注和贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，2013-2021年的牛市与1994-2000年的牛市几乎完全相同。此时此刻，纳斯达克指数（QQQ）看起来已经准备好开始最后的极度贪婪阶段。媒体将最近的反弹视为“新常态”，投资者正在大量买入FOMO，因为股票“只能上涨”。因此，纳斯达克可能会在 2021 年最后几个月上涨接近 20,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> As a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，了解这些动态极其重要。你可能也会有全力投资风险资产的冲动。然而，在这个阶段变得贪婪可能会对你的长期回报构成重大威胁，因为随后可能会出现一场大熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c783bf0cff4c410846a27c2dc8c180b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Human behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.</p><p><blockquote>人类的行为使得不被市场情绪分散注意力变得极具挑战性。如果你能对市场保持客观的看法，这将极大地有利于你的回报。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.坚持投资，机会总是有的</blockquote></p><p> In short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，第一条规则说，你的决定永远不应该被情绪所左右，你应该继续关注潜在的基本面。随着今天市场变得越来越贪婪，估值达到极端水平，这意味着你应该开始出售股票并持有大量现金，对吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not really... You know, a wise man once said the following:</p><p><blockquote>不完全是……你知道，一位智者曾经说过这样一句话：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.</b>  I'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.</p><p><blockquote><b>这是股票市场，不是股票市场。</b>我不完全确定是谁想出来的。但肯定是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> What does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？看，许多散户投资者根据整体市场前景买卖股票。如果他们不信任市场，无论如何都会不愿意投资。</blockquote></p><p> That's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.</p><p><blockquote>这不是看待市场的好方法。有近4,000只股票可供选择，无论市场如何发展，总会有有趣的投资机会产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.</p><p><blockquote>在一个普遍被高估的市场中，找到被低估的股票变得越来越具有挑战性，但肯定不是不可能的。问问沃伦·巴菲特。2000年，历史上被高估最严重的股市，他的投资工具伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）继续购买优质、被低估的资产。他的奉献得到了回报，在互联网高峰五年后，他获得了令人印象深刻的47%的回报率，而纳斯达克指数的回报率为-39%。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.</p><p><blockquote>罗素2000指数（IWM）是一个反映美国小盘股的指数，在互联网泡沫期间也非常有吸引力，2000年的市盈率为16倍（大盘股为24倍）。那些在泡沫期间投资这一被低估资产类别的人也产生了非常可观的回报。我可以想象，那些能够挑选出最好的小盘股的人比那些被过度炒作的科技股欺骗的人快乐得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c713a296e819a255b3be8ac6e504033d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.</p><p><blockquote>那么你今天应该做什么呢？我建议重新评估你所有的投资组合。将它们的估值与 3 年后的收益进行权衡，届时 Covid-19 中断（刺激措施、被压抑的需求等）消失。对你的假设要保守。如果一只股票与这些假设相比被严重高估，不要贪婪并卖出头寸。</blockquote></p><p> A great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.</p><p><blockquote>一个很好的例子是苹果公司（AAPL），它是今年最受欢迎的股票之一。由于其非常强劲的财务状况（上季度收入增长 36.4%），其市盈率在过去两年中翻了一番多，达到 30 倍。重要的是要明白，其最近的增长主要是由于不可持续的驱动因素，如几轮刺激支票。一旦这种情况消失，苹果的增长可能会回落到个位数（甚至可能在短期内为负），未来的回报将非常疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Don't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&amp;P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>不要把所有释放的资本都保留在现金中，尤其是在当前的通胀环境下。仍然有机会将这笔钱进行再投资。在我看来，小盘股是当今最具吸引力的资产类别，就像 2000 年一样。在最近表现不佳之后，罗素2000指数（代表所有美国小型股）今天的市盈率为15.6倍。这远低于标普500指数及其历史平均水平。有很多小盘股机会，未来将产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f132a93975b3b7fef86aff21c0b49bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yardeni</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚德尼</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.采用行之有效的投资策略选股</b></blockquote></p><p> Rule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.</p><p><blockquote>规则#1和#2在纸面上看起来很好，但在现实中很难执行。当紧要关头时，很难否认自己的情绪，并在估值过高的市场中找到有趣的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> That's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是#3发挥作用的地方：采用行之有效的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> With the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市即将到来的挑战，我相信在高度不确定的市场环境中，遵循预先确定的策略从未像今天这样重要。如果你使用过去行之有效的策略，你会在每个市场环境中感觉很棒。</blockquote></p><p> There are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>只要你坚持下去，有很多策略对你有用。我们坚信，我们在内部机会方面被低估的战略将在未来几年非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p> To find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找有吸引力的投资机会，我们每天都会跟踪内部购买情况。内部人士是首席财务官、首席执行官、董事会成员等。他们比市场上任何人都更了解自己的业务。如果他们看到股价和业务基本面之间脱节，他们可以购买股票来产生利润。您可以通过 SEC 文件或 openinsider.com 等网站每天跟踪这种所谓“聪明资金”的购买情况。</blockquote></p><p> We don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".</p><p><blockquote>我们不只是跟进内部购买。我们基于过去十年中超过一百万个数据点创建了三个算法，从所有内部购买中挑选出最好的。因此，我们坚持预先确定的计划，只购买基于特定基本面有吸引力的股票，称为“黄金选择”。</blockquote></p><p> It worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&amp;P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>它在过去非常有效。我们的回测显示，该策略在过去十年中产生了 47.2% 的年化回报率，是标普500指数的三倍。仅在2011年，它的表现略低于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05af9240a87a55641df0a7921ec0380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：内幕机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>我们坚信，无论市场表现如何，这一革命性的策略都将继续在股票市场为我们创造财富。给自己找一个像我们这样严格的、行之有效的策略，在即将到来的不确定性中，你可以依靠它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Do this at all-time highs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：在历史高点这样做</b></blockquote></p><p> Most stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?</p><p><blockquote>当创下历史新高时，大多数股市投资者都在固步自封。最重要的是，在这样的牛市里，什么事都不会出错吧？</blockquote></p><p> No, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>不，事情不是这样的。市场在周期中演变，那些不认识到适应这些周期重要性的人将面临疲软的长期回报。</blockquote></p><p> How should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:</p><p><blockquote>你应该如何接近今天的历史高点，以继续创造财富？以下是我的三条黄金法则：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>Don't get greedy.</b>As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.</li>  <li><b>Keep being invested.</b>Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.</li>  <li><b>Adopt a proven strategy.</b>Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>不要贪婪。</b>作为情绪行为的结果，当市场反弹时，你会想要承担更高的风险。永远不要跟随这些情绪，永远关注基本面。</li><li><b>继续投资。</b>不要仅仅因为市场被高估就不愿意投资股票。承认这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。每个市场环境中总有巨大的机会。如今，它们大多是低调的小盘股。</li><li><b>采用行之有效的策略。</b>投资并不容易，尤其是当事情开始向南发展的时候。采用严格的、行之有效的投资策略可以让生活变得更加轻松，并显着提高回报。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453541-3-golden-rules-on-how-to-invest-at-all-time-highs\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453541-3-golden-rules-on-how-to-invest-at-all-time-highs","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186375251","content_text":"Summary\n\nMarkets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.\nAs markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.\nWhat should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?\nIn this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.\n\nphive2015/iStock via Getty Images\nThe stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.\nSource: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview\nEach day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.\nHowever, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.\nThe importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.\n1. Don't get caught by greediness\nLet's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.\nAccording to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.\nThe single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.\nThe average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.\nToday, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.\nAs a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data; adjusted EPS is used\nWill earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?\nIt wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.\nWhat happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.\nAs markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used\nLet's get back to today... The P/E of the S&P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.\nNow ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.\nInterest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.\nMaybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.\nI'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used\nThis greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.\nInterestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.\nAs a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.\nSource: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview\nHuman behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.\n2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities\nIn short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?\nNot really... You know, a wise man once said the following:\n\nIt's a market of stocks, not a stock market.\n\nI'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.\nWhat does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.\nThat's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.\nIn a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.\nThe Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.\nData by YCharts\nSo what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.\nA great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.\nDon't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.\nSource: Yardeni\n3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks\nRule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.\nThat's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.\nWith the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.\nThere are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.\nTo find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.\nWe don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".\nIt worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.\nSource: Insider Opportunities\n\nWe firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.\nConclusion: Do this at all-time highs\nMost stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?\nNo, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.\nHow should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:\n\nDon't get greedy.As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.\nKeep being invested.Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.\nAdopt a proven strategy.Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818708460,"gmtCreate":1630446081750,"gmtModify":1631889375516,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Amazing [Wow]&nbsp;","listText":"Amazing [Wow]&nbsp;","text":"Amazing [Wow]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818708460","repostId":"2163319158","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811209615,"gmtCreate":1630323473037,"gmtModify":1704958407459,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586571907390098","authorIdStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It’s my birthday too&nbsp;🥳&nbsp;","listText":"It’s my birthday too&nbsp;🥳&nbsp;","text":"It’s my birthday too 🥳","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811209615","repostId":"1129827670","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":829729057,"gmtCreate":1633560025456,"gmtModify":1633560025952,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Market is extremely volatile at the moment [Facepalm]&nbsp;","listText":"Market is extremely volatile at the moment [Facepalm]&nbsp;","text":"Market is extremely volatile at the moment [Facepalm]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829729057","repostId":"2173917919","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4169,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":832946498,"gmtCreate":1629580277714,"gmtModify":1633684010081,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Staying away for sure after reading this!!!","listText":"Staying away for sure after reading this!!!","text":"Staying away for sure after reading this!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832946498","repostId":"1172699620","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172699620","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629450202,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1172699620?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-20 17:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Penny Stocks: Why You Should Always Stay Away<blockquote>细价股：为什么你应该始终远离</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172699620","media":"Kiplinger","summary":"Penny stocks – those stocks that trade for low prices, often with share prices of less than a dollar","content":"<p>Penny stocks – those stocks that trade for low prices, often with share prices of less than a dollar per share – are dangerous. Period. Indeed, with a few exceptions, investors should steer clear of these uber-cheap stocks, which typically trade over-the-counter and not on a major exchange.</p><p><blockquote>细价股——那些低价交易的股票，通常股价不到每股一美元——是危险的。周期。事实上，除了少数例外，投资者应该避开这些超便宜的股票，这些股票通常在场外交易，而不是在主要交易所交易。</blockquote></p><p> Call them penny stocks, microcaps or OTC stocks; by any name, they’re bad news. Promises of quick and easy riches are easier to fall for when an investment can be made with so little money up front. An investor might think, \"How risky could it be?\"</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权它们是细价股、微型股或场外股票；不管怎么说，他们都是坏消息。当一项投资可以用这么少的前期资金进行时，快速轻松致富的承诺更容易落空。投资者可能会想，“风险有多大？”</blockquote></p><p> Plenty. Per the Securities and Exchange Commission: “Academic studies find that OTC stocks tend to be highly illiquid; are frequent targets of alleged market manipulation; generate negative and volatile investment returns on average; and rarely grow into a large company or transition to listing on a stock exchange.”</p><p><blockquote>大量。根据美国证券交易委员会的说法： “学术研究发现，场外交易股票往往流动性极差；经常成为涉嫌市场操纵的目标；平均投资回报为负且不稳定；很少成长为大公司或过渡到证券交易所上市”。</blockquote></p><p> We’ll break down what all that means below, but suffice to say, the SEC is not a fan.</p><p><blockquote>我们将在下面分析这一切的含义，但可以说，美国证券交易委员会并不喜欢它。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Why Penny Stocks Are So Dangerous</b></h3> To be clear, this is not to say that every penny stock or OTC company is a scam. The danger is that the over-the-counter market is where the scam stocks live. Think of it as a bad neighborhood. Being there can make you a mark for a con.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>为什么细价股如此危险</b></h3>需要明确的是，这并不是说每一个细价股或场外交易公司都是骗局。危险在于，场外市场是诈骗股票生存的地方。就当是个糟糕的社区吧。在那里会让你成为骗子的标记。</blockquote></p><p> For some background, the OTC market is different from exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq, where trading is centralized. There is no one OTC exchange. Instead, the OTC connects buyers and sellers over a computer- and telephone-based system. Any stock that does not trade on the NYSE, Nasdaq or other established U.S. exchange can trade over-the-counter. These securities also are known as “unlisted stocks.”</p><p><blockquote>在某些背景下，场外交易市场不同于纽约证券交易所或纳斯达克等集中交易的交易所。没有场外交易所。相反，场外交易通过基于计算机和电话的系统连接买家和卖家。任何不在纽约证券交易所、纳斯达克或其他美国成熟交易所交易的股票都可以在场外交易。这些证券也被称为 “非上市股票”。</blockquote></p><p> Typically, OTC stocks tend to be highly risky microcap stocks (the shares of small companies with market capitalizations of under $300 million), which include nanocap stocks (those with market values of under $50 million).</p><p><blockquote>通常，场外股票往往是高风险的微型股（市值低于 3 亿美元的小公司的股票），其中包括纳米股（市值低于 5000 万美元的股票）。</blockquote></p><p> The SEC has long warned investors about the high risks associated with such stocks. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), the industry’s self-regulatory agency, likewise waves a red flag over the buying and trading of OTC securities.</p><p><blockquote>美国证券交易委员会长期以来一直警告投资者此类股票存在高风险。金融业监管局（FINRA）是金融业的自律机构，也对场外证券的购买和交易亮起了红旗。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because companies that list on the OTC aren’t required to file periodic or audited financial reports as they must do if they are listed on a major exchange, such as the NYSE or the Nasdaq. In other words, there’s no way to know if they’re telling the truth when they claim to have sales and profits. The major exchanges also have listing requirements; OTC stocks don’t. For example, a company must have at least 400 shareholders and a market value of at least $40 million to get a listing on the New York Stock Exchange. The OTC makes no such requirements.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为在场外交易所上市的公司无需像在纽约证券交易所或纳斯达克等主要交易所上市那样提交定期或经审计的财务报告。换句话说，当他们声称有销售额和利润时，根本无法知道他们说的是不是实话。各大交易所也有上市要求；场外股票则不然。例如，一家公司必须拥有至少400名股东，市值至少4000万美元才能在纽约证券交易所上市。OTC没有这样的要求。</blockquote></p><p> Put it all together, and it makes it easier for unscrupulous managers to lie about their business prospects or commit securities fraud.</p><p><blockquote>把所有这些放在一起，这使得不道德的经理更容易对他们的商业前景撒谎或进行证券欺诈。</blockquote></p><p> But that’s not all. The shares that exchange hands on the OTC tend to be “illiquid,” meaning they often trade in low volumes and have a limited number of buyers and sellers. That can make it difficult or impossible for investors to buy or sell shares at the prices they want.</p><p><blockquote>但这还不是全部。在场外交易所交易的股票往往 “流动性差”，这意味着它们的交易量往往较低，买卖双方数量有限。这可能会使投资者难以或不可能以他们想要的价格买卖股票。</blockquote></p><p> That lack of liquidity also makes many OTC stocks the perfect vehicle for “pump-and-dump” schemes where stock promoters lure investors to buy shares, increasing the stock price. Then, when the price gets high enough, the pumper sells his shares, causing the stock to fall and leaving investors with poor returns, or even losses. Anyone here see&nbsp;<i>The Wolf of Wall Street</i>?</p><p><blockquote>流动性的缺乏也使得许多场外股票成为 “拉高抛售 ”计划的完美工具，在这种计划中，股票发起人引诱投资者购买股票，从而推高股价。然后，当价格变得足够高时，泵商出售他的股票，导致股票下跌，给投资者留下糟糕的回报，甚至损失。这里有人看到了吗<i>华尔街之狼</i>?</blockquote></p><p> To protect investors from falling for these schemes, the SEC suspended trading of more than 800 microcap stocks – more than 8% of the OTC market – between 2012 and 2015. Once a stock has been suspended from trading, it cannot be relisted unless the company provides updated financial information to prove it’s actually operational. Since that rarely happens, trading suspensions essentially render the shares useless to scam artists.</p><p><blockquote>为了保护投资者免受这些计划的影响，SEC 在 2012 年至 2015 年间暂停了 800 多只微型股（占场外交易市场的 8% 以上）的交易。股票一旦被暂停交易，就不能重新上市，除非公司提供最新的财务信息来证明其实际运营。由于这种情况很少发生，暂停交易本质上使股票对诈骗艺术家毫无用处。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Legitimate OTCs</b></h3> Be that as it may, there is one segment of the OTC market that investors need not fear.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>合法场外交易</b></h3>尽管如此，场外交易市场有一个部分投资者不必担心。</blockquote></p><p> Amidst the riff-raff, some of the biggest, most respected foreign companies in the world list their U.S. shares over-the-counter instead of on the major U.S. exchanges. Here, you’ll find shares of&nbsp;<b>The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IDCBY\">Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd.</a></b>&nbsp;(IDCBY), which happens to be the biggest bank in the world. You also can buy shares of Switzerland’s<b>Nestlé</b>(NSRGY), the largest food company in the world; China’s&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCEHY\">Tencent Holding Ltd.</a></b>&nbsp;(TCEHY), one of the country’s largest internet service providers; and Japanese gaming giant&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTDOY\">Nintendo Co., Ltd.</a> </b>(NTDOY).</p><p><blockquote>在一片哗然之中，一些世界上最大、最受尊敬的外国公司在场外上市，而不是在美国主要交易所上市。在这里，您可以找到以下股票<b>这个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IDCBY\">中国工商银行股份有限公司</a></b>（IDCBY），恰好是世界上最大的银行。您还可以购买瑞士<b>雀巢</b>（NSRGY），全球最大的食品公司；中国的<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCEHY\">腾讯控股控股有限公司</a></b>(TCEHY)，该国最大的互联网服务提供商之一；和日本游戏巨头<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTDOY\">任天堂有限公司</a></b>（NTDOY）。</blockquote></p><p> Why would major, international publicly traded companies rub shoulders with firms that issue highly speculative penny stocks?</p><p><blockquote>为什么大型国际上市公司会与发行高度投机性细价股的公司擦肩而过？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason has to do with cost and convenience. For example, a foreign firm listing on the NYSE or Nasdaq must prepare two sets of audited financial statements for everything it does – one to conform with international accounting standards, and another that adheres to the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) used in the U.S. That isn’t a requirement over-the-counter.</p><p><blockquote>原因与成本和便利性有关。例如，在纽约证券交易所或纳斯达克上市的外国公司必须为其所做的一切准备两套经审计的财务报表--一套符合国际会计准则，另一套遵守美国使用的公认会计准则（GAAP），这不是场外交易的要求。</blockquote></p><p> With an OTC listing, a foreign company gains access to the vast pool of U.S. equity investors at a fraction of the cost and effort.</p><p><blockquote>通过场外上市，外国公司可以以很小的成本和精力接触到大量的美国股票投资者。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that with the exception of large, established foreign firms, OTC stocks come with too many risks. It’s not possible for the average investor to know if the company is on the up and up. And even legitimate tiny companies can fail virtually overnight. The pitfalls of trading OTC stocks just aren’t worth it.</p><p><blockquote>底线是，除了大型、成熟的外国公司之外，场外股票存在太多风险。普通投资者不可能知道公司是否蒸蒸日上。即使是合法的小公司也可能在一夜之间倒闭。交易场外股票交易的陷阱根本不值得。</blockquote></p><p> It’s easy enough to lose money investing in stocks. Why make it easier?</p><p><blockquote>投资股票很容易赔钱。为什么要让它变得更容易？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1629449927514","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Penny Stocks: Why You Should Always Stay Away<blockquote>细价股：为什么你应该始终远离</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPenny Stocks: Why You Should Always Stay Away<blockquote>细价股：为什么你应该始终远离</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Kiplinger</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-20 17:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Penny stocks – those stocks that trade for low prices, often with share prices of less than a dollar per share – are dangerous. Period. Indeed, with a few exceptions, investors should steer clear of these uber-cheap stocks, which typically trade over-the-counter and not on a major exchange.</p><p><blockquote>细价股——那些低价交易的股票，通常股价不到每股一美元——是危险的。周期。事实上，除了少数例外，投资者应该避开这些超便宜的股票，这些股票通常在场外交易，而不是在主要交易所交易。</blockquote></p><p> Call them penny stocks, microcaps or OTC stocks; by any name, they’re bad news. Promises of quick and easy riches are easier to fall for when an investment can be made with so little money up front. An investor might think, \"How risky could it be?\"</p><p><blockquote>看涨期权它们是细价股、微型股或场外股票；不管怎么说，他们都是坏消息。当一项投资可以用这么少的前期资金进行时，快速轻松致富的承诺更容易落空。投资者可能会想，“风险有多大？”</blockquote></p><p> Plenty. Per the Securities and Exchange Commission: “Academic studies find that OTC stocks tend to be highly illiquid; are frequent targets of alleged market manipulation; generate negative and volatile investment returns on average; and rarely grow into a large company or transition to listing on a stock exchange.”</p><p><blockquote>大量。根据美国证券交易委员会的说法： “学术研究发现，场外交易股票往往流动性极差；经常成为涉嫌市场操纵的目标；平均投资回报为负且不稳定；很少成长为大公司或过渡到证券交易所上市”。</blockquote></p><p> We’ll break down what all that means below, but suffice to say, the SEC is not a fan.</p><p><blockquote>我们将在下面分析这一切的含义，但可以说，美国证券交易委员会并不喜欢它。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Why Penny Stocks Are So Dangerous</b></h3> To be clear, this is not to say that every penny stock or OTC company is a scam. The danger is that the over-the-counter market is where the scam stocks live. Think of it as a bad neighborhood. Being there can make you a mark for a con.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>为什么细价股如此危险</b></h3>需要明确的是，这并不是说每一个细价股或场外交易公司都是骗局。危险在于，场外市场是诈骗股票生存的地方。就当是个糟糕的社区吧。在那里会让你成为骗子的标记。</blockquote></p><p> For some background, the OTC market is different from exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq, where trading is centralized. There is no one OTC exchange. Instead, the OTC connects buyers and sellers over a computer- and telephone-based system. Any stock that does not trade on the NYSE, Nasdaq or other established U.S. exchange can trade over-the-counter. These securities also are known as “unlisted stocks.”</p><p><blockquote>在某些背景下，场外交易市场不同于纽约证券交易所或纳斯达克等集中交易的交易所。没有场外交易所。相反，场外交易通过基于计算机和电话的系统连接买家和卖家。任何不在纽约证券交易所、纳斯达克或其他美国成熟交易所交易的股票都可以在场外交易。这些证券也被称为 “非上市股票”。</blockquote></p><p> Typically, OTC stocks tend to be highly risky microcap stocks (the shares of small companies with market capitalizations of under $300 million), which include nanocap stocks (those with market values of under $50 million).</p><p><blockquote>通常，场外股票往往是高风险的微型股（市值低于 3 亿美元的小公司的股票），其中包括纳米股（市值低于 5000 万美元的股票）。</blockquote></p><p> The SEC has long warned investors about the high risks associated with such stocks. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), the industry’s self-regulatory agency, likewise waves a red flag over the buying and trading of OTC securities.</p><p><blockquote>美国证券交易委员会长期以来一直警告投资者此类股票存在高风险。金融业监管局（FINRA）是金融业的自律机构，也对场外证券的购买和交易亮起了红旗。</blockquote></p><p> That’s because companies that list on the OTC aren’t required to file periodic or audited financial reports as they must do if they are listed on a major exchange, such as the NYSE or the Nasdaq. In other words, there’s no way to know if they’re telling the truth when they claim to have sales and profits. The major exchanges also have listing requirements; OTC stocks don’t. For example, a company must have at least 400 shareholders and a market value of at least $40 million to get a listing on the New York Stock Exchange. The OTC makes no such requirements.</p><p><blockquote>这是因为在场外交易所上市的公司无需像在纽约证券交易所或纳斯达克等主要交易所上市那样提交定期或经审计的财务报告。换句话说，当他们声称有销售额和利润时，根本无法知道他们说的是不是实话。各大交易所也有上市要求；场外股票则不然。例如，一家公司必须拥有至少400名股东，市值至少4000万美元才能在纽约证券交易所上市。OTC没有这样的要求。</blockquote></p><p> Put it all together, and it makes it easier for unscrupulous managers to lie about their business prospects or commit securities fraud.</p><p><blockquote>把所有这些放在一起，这使得不道德的经理更容易对他们的商业前景撒谎或进行证券欺诈。</blockquote></p><p> But that’s not all. The shares that exchange hands on the OTC tend to be “illiquid,” meaning they often trade in low volumes and have a limited number of buyers and sellers. That can make it difficult or impossible for investors to buy or sell shares at the prices they want.</p><p><blockquote>但这还不是全部。在场外交易所交易的股票往往 “流动性差”，这意味着它们的交易量往往较低，买卖双方数量有限。这可能会使投资者难以或不可能以他们想要的价格买卖股票。</blockquote></p><p> That lack of liquidity also makes many OTC stocks the perfect vehicle for “pump-and-dump” schemes where stock promoters lure investors to buy shares, increasing the stock price. Then, when the price gets high enough, the pumper sells his shares, causing the stock to fall and leaving investors with poor returns, or even losses. Anyone here see&nbsp;<i>The Wolf of Wall Street</i>?</p><p><blockquote>流动性的缺乏也使得许多场外股票成为 “拉高抛售 ”计划的完美工具，在这种计划中，股票发起人引诱投资者购买股票，从而推高股价。然后，当价格变得足够高时，泵商出售他的股票，导致股票下跌，给投资者留下糟糕的回报，甚至损失。这里有人看到了吗<i>华尔街之狼</i>?</blockquote></p><p> To protect investors from falling for these schemes, the SEC suspended trading of more than 800 microcap stocks – more than 8% of the OTC market – between 2012 and 2015. Once a stock has been suspended from trading, it cannot be relisted unless the company provides updated financial information to prove it’s actually operational. Since that rarely happens, trading suspensions essentially render the shares useless to scam artists.</p><p><blockquote>为了保护投资者免受这些计划的影响，SEC 在 2012 年至 2015 年间暂停了 800 多只微型股（占场外交易市场的 8% 以上）的交易。股票一旦被暂停交易，就不能重新上市，除非公司提供最新的财务信息来证明其实际运营。由于这种情况很少发生，暂停交易本质上使股票对诈骗艺术家毫无用处。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Legitimate OTCs</b></h3> Be that as it may, there is one segment of the OTC market that investors need not fear.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>合法场外交易</b></h3>尽管如此，场外交易市场有一个部分投资者不必担心。</blockquote></p><p> Amidst the riff-raff, some of the biggest, most respected foreign companies in the world list their U.S. shares over-the-counter instead of on the major U.S. exchanges. Here, you’ll find shares of&nbsp;<b>The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IDCBY\">Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd.</a></b>&nbsp;(IDCBY), which happens to be the biggest bank in the world. You also can buy shares of Switzerland’s<b>Nestlé</b>(NSRGY), the largest food company in the world; China’s&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCEHY\">Tencent Holding Ltd.</a></b>&nbsp;(TCEHY), one of the country’s largest internet service providers; and Japanese gaming giant&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTDOY\">Nintendo Co., Ltd.</a> </b>(NTDOY).</p><p><blockquote>在一片哗然之中，一些世界上最大、最受尊敬的外国公司在场外上市，而不是在美国主要交易所上市。在这里，您可以找到以下股票<b>这个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IDCBY\">中国工商银行股份有限公司</a></b>（IDCBY），恰好是世界上最大的银行。您还可以购买瑞士<b>雀巢</b>（NSRGY），全球最大的食品公司；中国的<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TCEHY\">腾讯控股控股有限公司</a></b>(TCEHY)，该国最大的互联网服务提供商之一；和日本游戏巨头<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTDOY\">任天堂有限公司</a></b>（NTDOY）。</blockquote></p><p> Why would major, international publicly traded companies rub shoulders with firms that issue highly speculative penny stocks?</p><p><blockquote>为什么大型国际上市公司会与发行高度投机性细价股的公司擦肩而过？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The reason has to do with cost and convenience. For example, a foreign firm listing on the NYSE or Nasdaq must prepare two sets of audited financial statements for everything it does – one to conform with international accounting standards, and another that adheres to the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) used in the U.S. That isn’t a requirement over-the-counter.</p><p><blockquote>原因与成本和便利性有关。例如，在纽约证券交易所或纳斯达克上市的外国公司必须为其所做的一切准备两套经审计的财务报表--一套符合国际会计准则，另一套遵守美国使用的公认会计准则（GAAP），这不是场外交易的要求。</blockquote></p><p> With an OTC listing, a foreign company gains access to the vast pool of U.S. equity investors at a fraction of the cost and effort.</p><p><blockquote>通过场外上市，外国公司可以以很小的成本和精力接触到大量的美国股票投资者。</blockquote></p><p> The bottom line is that with the exception of large, established foreign firms, OTC stocks come with too many risks. It’s not possible for the average investor to know if the company is on the up and up. And even legitimate tiny companies can fail virtually overnight. The pitfalls of trading OTC stocks just aren’t worth it.</p><p><blockquote>底线是，除了大型、成熟的外国公司之外，场外股票存在太多风险。普通投资者不可能知道公司是否蒸蒸日上。即使是合法的小公司也可能在一夜之间倒闭。交易场外股票交易的陷阱根本不值得。</blockquote></p><p> It’s easy enough to lose money investing in stocks. Why make it easier?</p><p><blockquote>投资股票很容易赔钱。为什么要让它变得更容易？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/603303/penny-stocks-always-stay-away\">Kiplinger</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","NTDOY":"任天堂","IDCBY":"工商银行ADR"},"source_url":"https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/603303/penny-stocks-always-stay-away","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172699620","content_text":"Penny stocks – those stocks that trade for low prices, often with share prices of less than a dollar per share – are dangerous. Period. Indeed, with a few exceptions, investors should steer clear of these uber-cheap stocks, which typically trade over-the-counter and not on a major exchange.\nCall them penny stocks, microcaps or OTC stocks; by any name, they’re bad news. Promises of quick and easy riches are easier to fall for when an investment can be made with so little money up front. An investor might think, \"How risky could it be?\"\nPlenty. Per the Securities and Exchange Commission: “Academic studies find that OTC stocks tend to be highly illiquid; are frequent targets of alleged market manipulation; generate negative and volatile investment returns on average; and rarely grow into a large company or transition to listing on a stock exchange.”\nWe’ll break down what all that means below, but suffice to say, the SEC is not a fan.\nWhy Penny Stocks Are So Dangerous\nTo be clear, this is not to say that every penny stock or OTC company is a scam. The danger is that the over-the-counter market is where the scam stocks live. Think of it as a bad neighborhood. Being there can make you a mark for a con.\nFor some background, the OTC market is different from exchanges like the New York Stock Exchange or Nasdaq, where trading is centralized. There is no one OTC exchange. Instead, the OTC connects buyers and sellers over a computer- and telephone-based system. Any stock that does not trade on the NYSE, Nasdaq or other established U.S. exchange can trade over-the-counter. These securities also are known as “unlisted stocks.”\nTypically, OTC stocks tend to be highly risky microcap stocks (the shares of small companies with market capitalizations of under $300 million), which include nanocap stocks (those with market values of under $50 million).\nThe SEC has long warned investors about the high risks associated with such stocks. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), the industry’s self-regulatory agency, likewise waves a red flag over the buying and trading of OTC securities.\nThat’s because companies that list on the OTC aren’t required to file periodic or audited financial reports as they must do if they are listed on a major exchange, such as the NYSE or the Nasdaq. In other words, there’s no way to know if they’re telling the truth when they claim to have sales and profits. The major exchanges also have listing requirements; OTC stocks don’t. For example, a company must have at least 400 shareholders and a market value of at least $40 million to get a listing on the New York Stock Exchange. The OTC makes no such requirements.\nPut it all together, and it makes it easier for unscrupulous managers to lie about their business prospects or commit securities fraud.\nBut that’s not all. The shares that exchange hands on the OTC tend to be “illiquid,” meaning they often trade in low volumes and have a limited number of buyers and sellers. That can make it difficult or impossible for investors to buy or sell shares at the prices they want.\nThat lack of liquidity also makes many OTC stocks the perfect vehicle for “pump-and-dump” schemes where stock promoters lure investors to buy shares, increasing the stock price. Then, when the price gets high enough, the pumper sells his shares, causing the stock to fall and leaving investors with poor returns, or even losses. Anyone here see The Wolf of Wall Street?\nTo protect investors from falling for these schemes, the SEC suspended trading of more than 800 microcap stocks – more than 8% of the OTC market – between 2012 and 2015. Once a stock has been suspended from trading, it cannot be relisted unless the company provides updated financial information to prove it’s actually operational. Since that rarely happens, trading suspensions essentially render the shares useless to scam artists.\nLegitimate OTCs\nBe that as it may, there is one segment of the OTC market that investors need not fear.\nAmidst the riff-raff, some of the biggest, most respected foreign companies in the world list their U.S. shares over-the-counter instead of on the major U.S. exchanges. Here, you’ll find shares of The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. (IDCBY), which happens to be the biggest bank in the world. You also can buy shares of Switzerland’sNestlé(NSRGY), the largest food company in the world; China’s Tencent Holding Ltd. (TCEHY), one of the country’s largest internet service providers; and Japanese gaming giant Nintendo Co., Ltd. (NTDOY).\nWhy would major, international publicly traded companies rub shoulders with firms that issue highly speculative penny stocks?\nThe reason has to do with cost and convenience. For example, a foreign firm listing on the NYSE or Nasdaq must prepare two sets of audited financial statements for everything it does – one to conform with international accounting standards, and another that adheres to the generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) used in the U.S. That isn’t a requirement over-the-counter.\nWith an OTC listing, a foreign company gains access to the vast pool of U.S. equity investors at a fraction of the cost and effort.\nThe bottom line is that with the exception of large, established foreign firms, OTC stocks come with too many risks. It’s not possible for the average investor to know if the company is on the up and up. And even legitimate tiny companies can fail virtually overnight. The pitfalls of trading OTC stocks just aren’t worth it.\nIt’s easy enough to lose money investing in stocks. Why make it easier?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NTDOY":0.9,"IDCBY":0.9,"TCEHY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":864244853,"gmtCreate":1633123723364,"gmtModify":1633123723760,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Interesting choices&nbsp;🤔&nbsp;","listText":"Interesting choices&nbsp;🤔&nbsp;","text":"Interesting choices 🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864244853","repostId":"2172295185","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":883111049,"gmtCreate":1631225268381,"gmtModify":1631889375505,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Agrees! Market goes up and down. Hold on tight and buy in the dip [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Agrees! Market goes up and down. Hold on tight and buy in the dip [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Agrees! Market goes up and down. Hold on tight and buy in the dip [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883111049","repostId":"2166317474","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889563744,"gmtCreate":1631159132288,"gmtModify":1631889375505,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Risky but definitely there’s potential 🚀","listText":"Risky but definitely there’s potential 🚀","text":"Risky but definitely there’s potential 🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889563744","repostId":"1138338668","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":865339222,"gmtCreate":1632950152696,"gmtModify":1632950153088,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"So much good options! [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"So much good options! [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"So much good options! [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865339222","repostId":"2171984641","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3559581955535845","authorId":"3559581955535845","name":"koolgal","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05274d88ffc0434623e57350c52c70a","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3559581955535845","idStr":"3559581955535845"},"content":"Yes. That is why I buy $SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$","text":"Yes. That is why I buy $SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$","html":"Yes. That is why I buy $SPDR Russell 1000 ETF(SPLG)$"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868389953,"gmtCreate":1632608695272,"gmtModify":1632653975170,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Added to watchlist [Observation]&nbsp;","listText":"Added to watchlist [Observation]&nbsp;","text":"Added to watchlist [Observation]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868389953","repostId":"1188909032","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188909032","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632531451,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188909032?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-25 08:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Top Consumer Stocks To Watch Ahead Of October 2021<blockquote>2021 年 10 月前值得关注的 5 只顶级消费股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188909032","media":"Nasdaq","summary":"Do You Have These Top Consumer Stocks On Your Radar Now?\nThe past trading week has been exciting, to","content":"<p>Do You Have These Top Consumer Stocks On Your Radar Now?</p><p><blockquote>您现在关注这些顶级消费类股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> The past trading week has been exciting, to say the least. Despite all of the ups and downs,consumer stockscontinue to make waves in thestock market today. If anything, the consumer-focused industry continues to hold strong now. This is evident as August’s retail sales figures smashed expectations, rising by 0.7% versus an estimated drop of 0.8%. Moreover, the current broad-based rebound in thestock marketcould indicate that investors’ sentiment on the economy is improving.</p><p><blockquote>至少可以说，过去的交易周令人兴奋。尽管经历了种种起伏，消费类股票今天继续在股市上掀起波澜。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是以消费者为中心的行业现在继续保持强劲。8 月份的零售额数据超出预期，增长了 0.7%，而预计下降了 0.8%，这一点显而易见。此外，目前股市的广泛反弹可能表明投资者对经济的情绪正在改善。</blockquote></p><p> Evidently, we could look at the likes of<b>Roku</b>(NASDAQ: ROKU) right now. Just yesterday, Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris provided a positive update on the stock. Namely, Morris hit ROKU stock with a Buy rating and a price target of $395. Morris cites Roku’s aggressive expansion of its original content and penetration of international markets as core reasons for the upgrade.</p><p><blockquote>显然，我们可以看看<b>Roku</b>（纳斯达克：ROKU）现在。就在昨天，古根海姆分析师迈克尔·莫里斯提供了该股的积极更新。也就是说，Morris 给予ROKU股票买入评级，目标价为 395 美元。Morris 认为，Roku对其原创内容的积极扩张和对国际市场的渗透是升级的核心原因。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, there is some interesting movement going on with<b>Nike’s</b>(NYSE: NKE) shares as well. Yesterday, the company posted its first-quarter earnings after the closing bell. In short, Nike reported an earnings per share of $1.16 on revenue of $12.25 billion for the quarter. This is against estimates of $1.11 and $12.46 billion. Investors appear to be focusing on Nike’s revenue miss which is mostly due to temporary supply chain pressures. Regardless, as one of the biggest names in the sports apparel industry globally, some could see opportunity in NKE stocks’ current weakness. With all this activity in the space now, could one of these consumer stocks be worth investing in?</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，一些有趣的运动正在进行<b>耐克的</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：NKE）股票也是如此。昨天，该公司在收盘后公布了第一季度财报。简而言之，耐克公布本季度每股收益为 1.16 美元，营收为 122.5 亿美元。相比之下，预计为 1.11 美元和 124.6 亿美元。投资者似乎将注意力集中在耐克的收入下滑上，这主要是由于暂时的供应链压力造成的。无论如何，作为全球运动服装行业的知名企业之一，一些人可能会从 NKE 股票目前的疲软中看到机会。鉴于目前该领域的所有这些活动，这些消费类股票中的一只值得投资吗？</blockquote></p><p> Best Consumer Stocks To Buy [Or Sell] Today</p><p><blockquote>今天买入[或卖出]的最佳消费类股票</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Beyond Meat Inc.</b>(NASDAQ: BYND)</li>  <li><b>Trip.com Group Ltd.</b>(NASDAQ: TCOM)</li>  <li><b>Vail Resorts Inc.</b>(NYSE: MTN)</li>  <li><b>Costco Wholesale Corporation</b>(NASDAQ: COST)</li>  <li><b>Stitch Fix Inc.</b>(NASDAQ: SFIX)</li> </ul> Beyond Meat Inc.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Beyond Meat公司。</b>（纳斯达克：BYND）</li><li><b>携程网集团有限公司</b>（纳斯达克：TCOM）</li><li><b>韦尔度假村公司。</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：MTN）</li><li><b>好市多批发公司</b>（纳斯达克：成本）</li><li><b>缝合修复公司。</b>（纳斯达克：SFIX）</li></ul>Beyond Meat公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Beyond Meat</b>is a plant-based meat substitutes retailer with headquarters in California. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, poultry, and pork categories. In fact, it is one of the fastest-growing food companies in the U.S. as more people are increasingly alternating to plant-based options. Its products are designed to have the same taste and texture as animal-based meat while being the better option for the environment. BYND stock has almost doubled in valuation since its pandemic era low.</p><p><blockquote><b>Beyond Meat</b>是一家总部位于加利福尼亚州的植物性肉类替代品零售商。该公司在牛肉、家禽和猪肉类别中提供植物性选择。事实上，随着越来越多的人越来越多地转向植物性食品，它是美国发展最快的食品公司之一。它的产品被设计成具有与动物肉相同的味道和质地，同时是对环境更好的选择。自大流行时代低点以来，BYND 股票的估值几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> In August, the company reported its second-quarter financials. Diving in, net revenue for the quarter was $149.4 million, increasing by 31.8% year-over-year. Furthermore, gross profit for the quarter was $47.4 million. The company saw record net revenues and also continues to return to growth in the foodservice industry as its customers welcome consumers back to their venues. Not resting on its laurels, the company also continues to make substantial investments in its long-term growth in the U.S. and abroad. Given all of this, will you consider investing in BYND stock right now?</p><p><blockquote>8月，该公司公布了第二季度财务报告。本季度净收入为 1.494 亿美元，同比增长 31.8%。此外，本季度毛利润为4740万美元。该公司的净收入创历史新高，并且随着客户欢迎消费者重返其场所，餐饮服务行业也继续恢复增长。该公司并没有满足于现状，还继续对其在美国和海外的长期增长进行大量投资。考虑到所有这些，您现在会考虑投资 BYND 股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875119289e70dc28e620fb5eeb2d291b\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券服务条款</blockquote></p><p> <b>[Read More]</b>&nbsp;What Stocks To Buy Today? 5 Tech Stocks To Watch</p><p><blockquote><b>[阅读全文]</b>今天买什么股票？5只值得关注的科技股</blockquote></p><p> Trip.com Group Ltd</p><p><blockquote>携程网集团有限公司</blockquote></p><p> Following that, we have multinational online travel company<b>Trip.com</b>, a leading one-stop travel platform globally. It integrates a comprehensive suite of travel products and services and differentiated travel content. It is the go-to destination for travelers in China and around the world. Impressively, it is currently one of the largest online travel agencies in China and also one of the largest travel service providers in the world.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们有了跨国在线旅游公司<b>旅行网</b>，全球领先的一站式旅游平台。它整合了一套全面的旅游产品和服务以及差异化的旅游内容。它是中国和世界各地游客的首选目的地。令人印象深刻的是，它目前是中国最大的在线旅行社之一，也是世界上最大的旅游服务提供商之一。</blockquote></p><p> After yesterday’s closing bell, Trip.com posted solid figures in its second fiscal quarter earnings report. In it, the company saw a total revenue of $912 million for the quarter. This marks a significant year-over-year jump of 86%. In terms of net income, the company saw a 43% increase over the same period. CEO Jane Sun cites Trip.com’s focus on the domestic market as a core contributor to this solid quarter for the company. Overall, given this piece of news, will you consider adding TCOM stock to your portfolio right now?</p><p><blockquote>昨天收盘后，Trip.com 在第二财季财报中公布了稳健的数据。其中，该公司本季度总收入为 9.12 亿美元。这标志着同比大幅增长 86%。净利润方面，该公司同期增长43%。首席执行官 Jane Sun 认为，Trip.com 对国内市场的关注是该公司本季度业绩强劲的核心原因。总的来说，鉴于这条消息，您现在会考虑将 TCOM 股票添加到您的投资组合中吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/781e08ea2e30a4f9c94020727b3e77bc\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOSVail Resorts Inc.</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券托斯维尔度假村公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vail Resorts</b>is a leading global mountain resort operator. The company and its subsidiaries operate 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. In essence, it owns and/or manages a collection of casually elegant hotels under the RockResorts brand. It also has a development company that is in the real estate planning and development business. MTN stock is up by over 40% in the past year alone.</p><p><blockquote><b>韦尔度假村</b>是全球领先的山地度假村运营商。该公司及其子公司经营37个目的地山地度假村和区域滑雪场。本质上，它拥有和/或管理RockResorts品牌下的一系列休闲优雅的酒店。它还有一家从事房地产规划和开发业务的开发公司。仅去年一年，MTN 股价就上涨了 40% 以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Recently, KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded Vail Resorts to an Overweight rating from Sector Weight and hit it with a price target of $355. Analyst Brett Andreas says that demand for skiing vacations was exceeding expectations with some bookings already at record levels. Not to mention, the company continues to gain momentum on the financial front. In its fourth fiscal quarterearnings call, Vail reported a net income of $127.9 million, marking a sizable 29.4% year-over-year increase. After considering that pandemic-related factors still weigh on its key operations, the company’s fundamentals are admirable. Moreover, the company also declared a cash dividend of $0.88 per share, to investors’ delight. All things considered, will you buy MTN stock?</p><p><blockquote>最近，KeyBanc Capital Markets 将 Vail Resorts 从行业权重上调至跑赢大盘评级，并将目标价定为 355 美元。分析师布雷特·安德烈亚斯表示，滑雪度假的需求超出了预期，一些预订量已经达到创纪录水平。更不用说，该公司在财务方面继续获得动力。在第四财季盈利看涨期权中，韦尔公布净利润为 1.279 亿美元，同比大幅增长 29.4%。考虑到大流行病相关因素仍对其关键业务构成压力，该公司的基本面令人钦佩。此外，该公司还宣布派发每股 0.88 美元的现金股息，令投资者欣喜不已。综合考虑，您会购买 MTN 股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c596fd2c2dc3ef4d15e9c9dfa89b8147\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券服务条款</blockquote></p><p> <b>[Read More]</b>&nbsp;4 Semiconductor Stocks To Watch Right Now</p><p><blockquote><b>[阅读全文]</b>现在值得关注的 4 只半导体股票</blockquote></p><p> Costco Wholesale Corporation</p><p><blockquote>好市多批发公司</blockquote></p><p> Next up, we will be taking a look at<b>Costco</b>. For the most part, the multinational consumer staples giant would be another player to consider in thestock market today. The main factor differentiating Costco from its retail competitors would be its membership-only big-box operations. Simply put, the company only caters to members and sells daily necessities in bulk. Amidst the ongoing pandemic and climate crises, Costco’s offerings could see greater demand from consumers.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们将看看<b>好市多</b>在很大程度上，这家跨国消费品巨头将是当今股市中另一个值得考虑的参与者。好市多区别于其零售竞争对手的主要因素是其仅限会员的大盒子业务。简单来说，公司只迎合会员，批量销售日用品。在大流行病和气候危机持续的情况下，Costco 的产品可能会受到消费者的更大需求。</blockquote></p><p> By and large, with COST stock sitting on year-to-date gains of over 19%, could it be worth investing in? Well, for one thing, the company beat Wall Streets’ projections across the board in its latest quarterly earnings report. In detail, Costco posted an earnings per share of $3.76 on revenue of $62.7 billion for the quarter. For some perspective, consensus estimates suggest an earnings per share of $3.59 on revenue of $61.6 billion. All in all, would you consider adding COST stock to your portfolio?</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，成本股年初至今涨幅超过 19%，值得投资吗？首先，该公司在最新的季度财报中全面超出了华尔街的预测。具体来说，Costco 公布本季度每股收益为 3.76 美元，营收为 627 亿美元。从某种角度来看，普遍估计每股收益为 3.59 美元，营收为 616 亿美元。总而言之，您会考虑将成本股票添加到您的投资组合中吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0412ae414ccd0df0d5f93302bd037b56\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券服务条款</blockquote></p><p> <b>[Read More]</b>&nbsp;Top Stocks To Buy Now? 4 Renewable Energy Stocks For Your Watchlist</p><p><blockquote><b>[阅读全文]</b>现在值得购买的热门股票？您关注列表中的 4 只可再生能源股票</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix Inc.</p><p><blockquote>缝合修复公司。</blockquote></p><p> Another name to know in the consumer stock space now would be<b>Stitch Fix</b>. In brief, it is an online personal styling service. Through a combination of artificial intelligence and data science, Stitch Fix provides customers with personalized e-commerce experiences. Given the prevalence of online shopping throughout the pandemic, SFIX stock could be in focus among investors. In fact, the company’s shares are up by over 15% just this week on account of its solid earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>现在消费类股票领域另一个值得了解的名字是<b>缝线固定</b>.简而言之，它是一个在线个人造型服务。通过人工智能和数据科学的结合，Stitch Fix为客户提供个性化的电子商务体验。鉴于整个疫情网上购物的盛行，SFIX 股票可能会成为投资者关注的焦点。事实上，由于其稳健的财报，该公司股价仅本周就上涨了 15% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, Stitch Fix raked in a total revenue of $571.16 million for the quarter, marking a 28% year-over-year increase. Additionally, the company also reported massive year-over-year spikes of over 145% in both its net income and earnings per share. Despite beating analyst estimates on these fronts, Stitch Fix does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon. This appears to be the case as the company is expanding its services with Stitch Fix Freestyle, a “differentiated shopping experience”. This would give customers a more instant and flexible means of shopping on its platform. As such, could SFIX stock be a top pick in the stock market now?</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，Stitch Fix 本季度总收入为 5.7116 亿美元，同比增长 28%。此外，该公司还报告净利润和每股收益同比大幅增长超过 145%。尽管在这些方面超出了分析师的预期，但 Stitch Fix 似乎不会很快放缓。随着该公司通过 Stitch Fix Freestyle（一种 “差异化的购物体验”）扩展其服务，情况似乎就是如此。这将为客户提供更即时、更灵活的平台购物方式。因此，SFIX 股票现在能成为股市的首选吗？</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603171495471","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Top Consumer Stocks To Watch Ahead Of October 2021<blockquote>2021 年 10 月前值得关注的 5 只顶级消费股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Top Consumer Stocks To Watch Ahead Of October 2021<blockquote>2021 年 10 月前值得关注的 5 只顶级消费股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Nasdaq</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-25 08:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Do You Have These Top Consumer Stocks On Your Radar Now?</p><p><blockquote>您现在关注这些顶级消费类股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> The past trading week has been exciting, to say the least. Despite all of the ups and downs,consumer stockscontinue to make waves in thestock market today. If anything, the consumer-focused industry continues to hold strong now. This is evident as August’s retail sales figures smashed expectations, rising by 0.7% versus an estimated drop of 0.8%. Moreover, the current broad-based rebound in thestock marketcould indicate that investors’ sentiment on the economy is improving.</p><p><blockquote>至少可以说，过去的交易周令人兴奋。尽管经历了种种起伏，消费类股票今天继续在股市上掀起波澜。如果说有什么不同的话，那就是以消费者为中心的行业现在继续保持强劲。8 月份的零售额数据超出预期，增长了 0.7%，而预计下降了 0.8%，这一点显而易见。此外，目前股市的广泛反弹可能表明投资者对经济的情绪正在改善。</blockquote></p><p> Evidently, we could look at the likes of<b>Roku</b>(NASDAQ: ROKU) right now. Just yesterday, Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris provided a positive update on the stock. Namely, Morris hit ROKU stock with a Buy rating and a price target of $395. Morris cites Roku’s aggressive expansion of its original content and penetration of international markets as core reasons for the upgrade.</p><p><blockquote>显然，我们可以看看<b>Roku</b>（纳斯达克：ROKU）现在。就在昨天，古根海姆分析师迈克尔·莫里斯提供了该股的积极更新。也就是说，Morris 给予ROKU股票买入评级，目标价为 395 美元。Morris 认为，Roku对其原创内容的积极扩张和对国际市场的渗透是升级的核心原因。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, there is some interesting movement going on with<b>Nike’s</b>(NYSE: NKE) shares as well. Yesterday, the company posted its first-quarter earnings after the closing bell. In short, Nike reported an earnings per share of $1.16 on revenue of $12.25 billion for the quarter. This is against estimates of $1.11 and $12.46 billion. Investors appear to be focusing on Nike’s revenue miss which is mostly due to temporary supply chain pressures. Regardless, as one of the biggest names in the sports apparel industry globally, some could see opportunity in NKE stocks’ current weakness. With all this activity in the space now, could one of these consumer stocks be worth investing in?</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，一些有趣的运动正在进行<b>耐克的</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：NKE）股票也是如此。昨天，该公司在收盘后公布了第一季度财报。简而言之，耐克公布本季度每股收益为 1.16 美元，营收为 122.5 亿美元。相比之下，预计为 1.11 美元和 124.6 亿美元。投资者似乎将注意力集中在耐克的收入下滑上，这主要是由于暂时的供应链压力造成的。无论如何，作为全球运动服装行业的知名企业之一，一些人可能会从 NKE 股票目前的疲软中看到机会。鉴于目前该领域的所有这些活动，这些消费类股票中的一只值得投资吗？</blockquote></p><p> Best Consumer Stocks To Buy [Or Sell] Today</p><p><blockquote>今天买入[或卖出]的最佳消费类股票</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Beyond Meat Inc.</b>(NASDAQ: BYND)</li>  <li><b>Trip.com Group Ltd.</b>(NASDAQ: TCOM)</li>  <li><b>Vail Resorts Inc.</b>(NYSE: MTN)</li>  <li><b>Costco Wholesale Corporation</b>(NASDAQ: COST)</li>  <li><b>Stitch Fix Inc.</b>(NASDAQ: SFIX)</li> </ul> Beyond Meat Inc.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>Beyond Meat公司。</b>（纳斯达克：BYND）</li><li><b>携程网集团有限公司</b>（纳斯达克：TCOM）</li><li><b>韦尔度假村公司。</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：MTN）</li><li><b>好市多批发公司</b>（纳斯达克：成本）</li><li><b>缝合修复公司。</b>（纳斯达克：SFIX）</li></ul>Beyond Meat公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Beyond Meat</b>is a plant-based meat substitutes retailer with headquarters in California. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, poultry, and pork categories. In fact, it is one of the fastest-growing food companies in the U.S. as more people are increasingly alternating to plant-based options. Its products are designed to have the same taste and texture as animal-based meat while being the better option for the environment. BYND stock has almost doubled in valuation since its pandemic era low.</p><p><blockquote><b>Beyond Meat</b>是一家总部位于加利福尼亚州的植物性肉类替代品零售商。该公司在牛肉、家禽和猪肉类别中提供植物性选择。事实上，随着越来越多的人越来越多地转向植物性食品，它是美国发展最快的食品公司之一。它的产品被设计成具有与动物肉相同的味道和质地，同时是对环境更好的选择。自大流行时代低点以来，BYND 股票的估值几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> In August, the company reported its second-quarter financials. Diving in, net revenue for the quarter was $149.4 million, increasing by 31.8% year-over-year. Furthermore, gross profit for the quarter was $47.4 million. The company saw record net revenues and also continues to return to growth in the foodservice industry as its customers welcome consumers back to their venues. Not resting on its laurels, the company also continues to make substantial investments in its long-term growth in the U.S. and abroad. Given all of this, will you consider investing in BYND stock right now?</p><p><blockquote>8月，该公司公布了第二季度财务报告。本季度净收入为 1.494 亿美元，同比增长 31.8%。此外，本季度毛利润为4740万美元。该公司的净收入创历史新高，并且随着客户欢迎消费者重返其场所，餐饮服务行业也继续恢复增长。该公司并没有满足于现状，还继续对其在美国和海外的长期增长进行大量投资。考虑到所有这些，您现在会考虑投资 BYND 股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875119289e70dc28e620fb5eeb2d291b\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券服务条款</blockquote></p><p> <b>[Read More]</b>&nbsp;What Stocks To Buy Today? 5 Tech Stocks To Watch</p><p><blockquote><b>[阅读全文]</b>今天买什么股票？5只值得关注的科技股</blockquote></p><p> Trip.com Group Ltd</p><p><blockquote>携程网集团有限公司</blockquote></p><p> Following that, we have multinational online travel company<b>Trip.com</b>, a leading one-stop travel platform globally. It integrates a comprehensive suite of travel products and services and differentiated travel content. It is the go-to destination for travelers in China and around the world. Impressively, it is currently one of the largest online travel agencies in China and also one of the largest travel service providers in the world.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们有了跨国在线旅游公司<b>旅行网</b>，全球领先的一站式旅游平台。它整合了一套全面的旅游产品和服务以及差异化的旅游内容。它是中国和世界各地游客的首选目的地。令人印象深刻的是，它目前是中国最大的在线旅行社之一，也是世界上最大的旅游服务提供商之一。</blockquote></p><p> After yesterday’s closing bell, Trip.com posted solid figures in its second fiscal quarter earnings report. In it, the company saw a total revenue of $912 million for the quarter. This marks a significant year-over-year jump of 86%. In terms of net income, the company saw a 43% increase over the same period. CEO Jane Sun cites Trip.com’s focus on the domestic market as a core contributor to this solid quarter for the company. Overall, given this piece of news, will you consider adding TCOM stock to your portfolio right now?</p><p><blockquote>昨天收盘后，Trip.com 在第二财季财报中公布了稳健的数据。其中，该公司本季度总收入为 9.12 亿美元。这标志着同比大幅增长 86%。净利润方面，该公司同期增长43%。首席执行官 Jane Sun 认为，Trip.com 对国内市场的关注是该公司本季度业绩强劲的核心原因。总的来说，鉴于这条消息，您现在会考虑将 TCOM 股票添加到您的投资组合中吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/781e08ea2e30a4f9c94020727b3e77bc\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOSVail Resorts Inc.</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券托斯维尔度假村公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vail Resorts</b>is a leading global mountain resort operator. The company and its subsidiaries operate 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. In essence, it owns and/or manages a collection of casually elegant hotels under the RockResorts brand. It also has a development company that is in the real estate planning and development business. MTN stock is up by over 40% in the past year alone.</p><p><blockquote><b>韦尔度假村</b>是全球领先的山地度假村运营商。该公司及其子公司经营37个目的地山地度假村和区域滑雪场。本质上，它拥有和/或管理RockResorts品牌下的一系列休闲优雅的酒店。它还有一家从事房地产规划和开发业务的开发公司。仅去年一年，MTN 股价就上涨了 40% 以上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Recently, KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded Vail Resorts to an Overweight rating from Sector Weight and hit it with a price target of $355. Analyst Brett Andreas says that demand for skiing vacations was exceeding expectations with some bookings already at record levels. Not to mention, the company continues to gain momentum on the financial front. In its fourth fiscal quarterearnings call, Vail reported a net income of $127.9 million, marking a sizable 29.4% year-over-year increase. After considering that pandemic-related factors still weigh on its key operations, the company’s fundamentals are admirable. Moreover, the company also declared a cash dividend of $0.88 per share, to investors’ delight. All things considered, will you buy MTN stock?</p><p><blockquote>最近，KeyBanc Capital Markets 将 Vail Resorts 从行业权重上调至跑赢大盘评级，并将目标价定为 355 美元。分析师布雷特·安德烈亚斯表示，滑雪度假的需求超出了预期，一些预订量已经达到创纪录水平。更不用说，该公司在财务方面继续获得动力。在第四财季盈利看涨期权中，韦尔公布净利润为 1.279 亿美元，同比大幅增长 29.4%。考虑到大流行病相关因素仍对其关键业务构成压力，该公司的基本面令人钦佩。此外，该公司还宣布派发每股 0.88 美元的现金股息，令投资者欣喜不已。综合考虑，您会购买 MTN 股票吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c596fd2c2dc3ef4d15e9c9dfa89b8147\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券服务条款</blockquote></p><p> <b>[Read More]</b>&nbsp;4 Semiconductor Stocks To Watch Right Now</p><p><blockquote><b>[阅读全文]</b>现在值得关注的 4 只半导体股票</blockquote></p><p> Costco Wholesale Corporation</p><p><blockquote>好市多批发公司</blockquote></p><p> Next up, we will be taking a look at<b>Costco</b>. For the most part, the multinational consumer staples giant would be another player to consider in thestock market today. The main factor differentiating Costco from its retail competitors would be its membership-only big-box operations. Simply put, the company only caters to members and sells daily necessities in bulk. Amidst the ongoing pandemic and climate crises, Costco’s offerings could see greater demand from consumers.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们将看看<b>好市多</b>在很大程度上，这家跨国消费品巨头将是当今股市中另一个值得考虑的参与者。好市多区别于其零售竞争对手的主要因素是其仅限会员的大盒子业务。简单来说，公司只迎合会员，批量销售日用品。在大流行病和气候危机持续的情况下，Costco 的产品可能会受到消费者的更大需求。</blockquote></p><p> By and large, with COST stock sitting on year-to-date gains of over 19%, could it be worth investing in? Well, for one thing, the company beat Wall Streets’ projections across the board in its latest quarterly earnings report. In detail, Costco posted an earnings per share of $3.76 on revenue of $62.7 billion for the quarter. For some perspective, consensus estimates suggest an earnings per share of $3.59 on revenue of $61.6 billion. All in all, would you consider adding COST stock to your portfolio?</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，成本股年初至今涨幅超过 19%，值得投资吗？首先，该公司在最新的季度财报中全面超出了华尔街的预测。具体来说，Costco 公布本季度每股收益为 3.76 美元，营收为 627 亿美元。从某种角度来看，普遍估计每股收益为 3.59 美元，营收为 616 亿美元。总而言之，您会考虑将成本股票添加到您的投资组合中吗？</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0412ae414ccd0df0d5f93302bd037b56\" tg-width=\"759\" tg-height=\"468\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Source: TD Ameritrade TOS</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：德美利证券服务条款</blockquote></p><p> <b>[Read More]</b>&nbsp;Top Stocks To Buy Now? 4 Renewable Energy Stocks For Your Watchlist</p><p><blockquote><b>[阅读全文]</b>现在值得购买的热门股票？您关注列表中的 4 只可再生能源股票</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix Inc.</p><p><blockquote>缝合修复公司。</blockquote></p><p> Another name to know in the consumer stock space now would be<b>Stitch Fix</b>. In brief, it is an online personal styling service. Through a combination of artificial intelligence and data science, Stitch Fix provides customers with personalized e-commerce experiences. Given the prevalence of online shopping throughout the pandemic, SFIX stock could be in focus among investors. In fact, the company’s shares are up by over 15% just this week on account of its solid earnings report.</p><p><blockquote>现在消费类股票领域另一个值得了解的名字是<b>缝线固定</b>.简而言之，它是一个在线个人造型服务。通过人工智能和数据科学的结合，Stitch Fix为客户提供个性化的电子商务体验。鉴于整个疫情网上购物的盛行，SFIX 股票可能会成为投资者关注的焦点。事实上，由于其稳健的财报，该公司股价仅本周就上涨了 15% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, Stitch Fix raked in a total revenue of $571.16 million for the quarter, marking a 28% year-over-year increase. Additionally, the company also reported massive year-over-year spikes of over 145% in both its net income and earnings per share. Despite beating analyst estimates on these fronts, Stitch Fix does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon. This appears to be the case as the company is expanding its services with Stitch Fix Freestyle, a “differentiated shopping experience”. This would give customers a more instant and flexible means of shopping on its platform. As such, could SFIX stock be a top pick in the stock market now?</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，Stitch Fix 本季度总收入为 5.7116 亿美元，同比增长 28%。此外，该公司还报告净利润和每股收益同比大幅增长超过 145%。尽管在这些方面超出了分析师的预期，但 Stitch Fix 似乎不会很快放缓。随着该公司通过 Stitch Fix Freestyle（一种 “差异化的购物体验”）扩展其服务，情况似乎就是如此。这将为客户提供更即时、更灵活的平台购物方式。因此，SFIX 股票现在能成为股市的首选吗？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-top-consumer-stocks-to-watch-ahead-of-october-2021-2021-09-24\">Nasdaq</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TCOM":"携程网","SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc.","ROKU":"Roku Inc","BYND":"Beyond Meat, Inc.","NKE":"耐克","COST":"好市多"},"source_url":"https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/5-top-consumer-stocks-to-watch-ahead-of-october-2021-2021-09-24","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188909032","content_text":"Do You Have These Top Consumer Stocks On Your Radar Now?\nThe past trading week has been exciting, to say the least. Despite all of the ups and downs,consumer stockscontinue to make waves in thestock market today. If anything, the consumer-focused industry continues to hold strong now. This is evident as August’s retail sales figures smashed expectations, rising by 0.7% versus an estimated drop of 0.8%. Moreover, the current broad-based rebound in thestock marketcould indicate that investors’ sentiment on the economy is improving.\nEvidently, we could look at the likes ofRoku(NASDAQ: ROKU) right now. Just yesterday, Guggenheim analyst Michael Morris provided a positive update on the stock. Namely, Morris hit ROKU stock with a Buy rating and a price target of $395. Morris cites Roku’s aggressive expansion of its original content and penetration of international markets as core reasons for the upgrade.\nAt the same time, there is some interesting movement going on withNike’s(NYSE: NKE) shares as well. Yesterday, the company posted its first-quarter earnings after the closing bell. In short, Nike reported an earnings per share of $1.16 on revenue of $12.25 billion for the quarter. This is against estimates of $1.11 and $12.46 billion. Investors appear to be focusing on Nike’s revenue miss which is mostly due to temporary supply chain pressures. Regardless, as one of the biggest names in the sports apparel industry globally, some could see opportunity in NKE stocks’ current weakness. With all this activity in the space now, could one of these consumer stocks be worth investing in?\nBest Consumer Stocks To Buy [Or Sell] Today\n\nBeyond Meat Inc.(NASDAQ: BYND)\nTrip.com Group Ltd.(NASDAQ: TCOM)\nVail Resorts Inc.(NYSE: MTN)\nCostco Wholesale Corporation(NASDAQ: COST)\nStitch Fix Inc.(NASDAQ: SFIX)\n\nBeyond Meat Inc.\nBeyond Meatis a plant-based meat substitutes retailer with headquarters in California. The company offers plant-based options in the beef, poultry, and pork categories. In fact, it is one of the fastest-growing food companies in the U.S. as more people are increasingly alternating to plant-based options. Its products are designed to have the same taste and texture as animal-based meat while being the better option for the environment. BYND stock has almost doubled in valuation since its pandemic era low.\nIn August, the company reported its second-quarter financials. Diving in, net revenue for the quarter was $149.4 million, increasing by 31.8% year-over-year. Furthermore, gross profit for the quarter was $47.4 million. The company saw record net revenues and also continues to return to growth in the foodservice industry as its customers welcome consumers back to their venues. Not resting on its laurels, the company also continues to make substantial investments in its long-term growth in the U.S. and abroad. Given all of this, will you consider investing in BYND stock right now?\nSource: TD Ameritrade TOS\n[Read More] What Stocks To Buy Today? 5 Tech Stocks To Watch\nTrip.com Group Ltd\nFollowing that, we have multinational online travel companyTrip.com, a leading one-stop travel platform globally. It integrates a comprehensive suite of travel products and services and differentiated travel content. It is the go-to destination for travelers in China and around the world. Impressively, it is currently one of the largest online travel agencies in China and also one of the largest travel service providers in the world.\nAfter yesterday’s closing bell, Trip.com posted solid figures in its second fiscal quarter earnings report. In it, the company saw a total revenue of $912 million for the quarter. This marks a significant year-over-year jump of 86%. In terms of net income, the company saw a 43% increase over the same period. CEO Jane Sun cites Trip.com’s focus on the domestic market as a core contributor to this solid quarter for the company. Overall, given this piece of news, will you consider adding TCOM stock to your portfolio right now?\nSource: TD Ameritrade TOSVail Resorts Inc.\nVail Resortsis a leading global mountain resort operator. The company and its subsidiaries operate 37 destination mountain resorts and regional ski areas. In essence, it owns and/or manages a collection of casually elegant hotels under the RockResorts brand. It also has a development company that is in the real estate planning and development business. MTN stock is up by over 40% in the past year alone.\nRecently, KeyBanc Capital Markets upgraded Vail Resorts to an Overweight rating from Sector Weight and hit it with a price target of $355. Analyst Brett Andreas says that demand for skiing vacations was exceeding expectations with some bookings already at record levels. Not to mention, the company continues to gain momentum on the financial front. In its fourth fiscal quarterearnings call, Vail reported a net income of $127.9 million, marking a sizable 29.4% year-over-year increase. After considering that pandemic-related factors still weigh on its key operations, the company’s fundamentals are admirable. Moreover, the company also declared a cash dividend of $0.88 per share, to investors’ delight. All things considered, will you buy MTN stock?\nSource: TD Ameritrade TOS\n[Read More] 4 Semiconductor Stocks To Watch Right Now\nCostco Wholesale Corporation\nNext up, we will be taking a look atCostco. For the most part, the multinational consumer staples giant would be another player to consider in thestock market today. The main factor differentiating Costco from its retail competitors would be its membership-only big-box operations. Simply put, the company only caters to members and sells daily necessities in bulk. Amidst the ongoing pandemic and climate crises, Costco’s offerings could see greater demand from consumers.\nBy and large, with COST stock sitting on year-to-date gains of over 19%, could it be worth investing in? Well, for one thing, the company beat Wall Streets’ projections across the board in its latest quarterly earnings report. In detail, Costco posted an earnings per share of $3.76 on revenue of $62.7 billion for the quarter. For some perspective, consensus estimates suggest an earnings per share of $3.59 on revenue of $61.6 billion. All in all, would you consider adding COST stock to your portfolio?\nSource: TD Ameritrade TOS\n[Read More] Top Stocks To Buy Now? 4 Renewable Energy Stocks For Your Watchlist\nStitch Fix Inc.\nAnother name to know in the consumer stock space now would beStitch Fix. In brief, it is an online personal styling service. Through a combination of artificial intelligence and data science, Stitch Fix provides customers with personalized e-commerce experiences. Given the prevalence of online shopping throughout the pandemic, SFIX stock could be in focus among investors. In fact, the company’s shares are up by over 15% just this week on account of its solid earnings report.\nNotably, Stitch Fix raked in a total revenue of $571.16 million for the quarter, marking a 28% year-over-year increase. Additionally, the company also reported massive year-over-year spikes of over 145% in both its net income and earnings per share. Despite beating analyst estimates on these fronts, Stitch Fix does not seem to be slowing down anytime soon. This appears to be the case as the company is expanding its services with Stitch Fix Freestyle, a “differentiated shopping experience”. This would give customers a more instant and flexible means of shopping on its platform. As such, could SFIX stock be a top pick in the stock market now?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TCOM":0.9,"BYND":0.9,"ROKU":0.9,"SFIX":0.9,"NKE":0.9,"COST":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":179369471,"gmtCreate":1626486989493,"gmtModify":1633926335380,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hold on tight. It will go back up 🙏🏼","listText":"Hold on tight. It will go back up 🙏🏼","text":"Hold on tight. It will go back up 🙏🏼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179369471","repostId":"1198202103","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":863705575,"gmtCreate":1632432667697,"gmtModify":1632728586616,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great tips to help go to the moon 🚀","listText":"Great tips to help go to the moon 🚀","text":"Great tips to help go to the moon 🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863705575","repostId":"2169667599","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2866,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817206382,"gmtCreate":1630964991446,"gmtModify":1631889375510,"author":{"id":"3586571907390098","authorId":"3586571907390098","name":"Lainey_Lim","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6fef4f5ef7a67189e244e640a694be0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586571907390098","idStr":"3586571907390098"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great tips [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Great tips [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Great tips [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817206382","repostId":"1186375251","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186375251","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630909435,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1186375251?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 14:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点投资的 3 条黄金法则</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186375251","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMarkets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correcti","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Markets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.</li>  <li>As markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.</li>  <li>What should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?</li>  <li>In this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5f0c9f1aacfbc6d8c78d0e84da5fc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>phive2015/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场每周继续创下历史新高，并且在 200 多个交易日中没有出现明显的调整。</li><li>随着市场反弹，许多投资者开始固步自封，而处于历史高点的投资决策实际上比以往任何时候都更加重要。</li><li>在当今的市场上，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格抛售，还是今天买入仍然能获得丰厚的回报？</li><li>在这篇文章中，我将分享我关于如何在今天这样的历史高点进行投资的三条黄金法则。这些信息对你未来在市场上创造财富非常有价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>phive2015/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.</p><p><blockquote>2021年股市一路狂飙。8月底，标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）年初至今上涨20.4%。有趣的是，该指数一直在非常狭窄的上涨区间内交易，并且在208个交易日中没有出现5%的修正。虽然大多数投资者并不认为这是一种异常现象，但实际上却是。这两种事件在股市历史上只发生过7次。我们显然生活在一个不正常的时代。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ccc72065c84083443d6be7f03482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.</p><p><blockquote>每天仔细考虑你所做的投资决策是很重要的。最重要的是，所有的购买或销售都会影响你未来在市场上的财富积累。</blockquote></p><p> However, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在像今天这样的极端反弹期间，反思你的投资决策更加重要。问问那些在互联网泡沫期间承担高风险或在 Covid-19 崩盘期间恐慌性抛售的投资者。这无疑对他们的长期回报产生了巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> The importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.</p><p><blockquote>今天的投资决策对你的长期回报很重要，这就是为什么我选择写我关于如何在历史高点投资的三条黄金法则。你应该如何对待今天的市场，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格卖出并等待调整发生，还是在这些水平买入时仍然能产生丰厚的回报？这篇文章将提供这些百万美元问题的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don't get caught by greediness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要被贪婪抓住</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从最重要的规则开始。避免贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&amp;P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通的数据，在过去的20年里，投资者的平均年回报率仅为2.9%。因此，它们的表现明显逊于一般市场，因为标普500在此期间的年回报率为 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者表现不佳的最重要原因是什么？情感人类行为。</blockquote></p><p> The average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.</p><p><blockquote>普通投资者受到媒体头条、股价变动和其他投资者行为的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&amp;P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们到达了一个极度看涨的股市环境。上个财报季是股市历史上最伟大的财报季之一。标普500每股收益同比增长 94.5%，86.1% 的成分股超出分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> As a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:</p><p><blockquote>由于这种看涨环境，分析师正在大幅提高对未来几个季度的预期。他们现在预计，到 2022 年底，每股收益将大幅升至 217.96 美元，较大流行前的高点 157.12 美元大幅回升。这样的复苏看起来很乐观，因为在过去的经济周期中，需要 7-12 年才能实现这一目标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1accc921d16b11ec13ed94686b9cfe75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于标准普尔全球数据的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Will earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度盈利真的会继续强劲复苏吗？还是分析师的假设太贪婪了？</blockquote></p><p> It wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们太贪婪，这也不是第一次了。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，他们也被自己的情绪所困扰。就标普500的盈利增长而言，90 年代是异常强劲的十年。因此，分析师完全忘记了下降周期也存在。他们将 2000 年后五年的年度每股收益增长指导提高到惊人的 15%。根据他们的说法，这种高增长率证明了股票交易市盈率创纪录的合理性，许多投资者被骗进了这个故事。</blockquote></p><p> What happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>后来发生了什么？经济没有繁荣，而是陷入了衰退，花了3年时间才恢复过来。2003 年的收益比分析师 2000 年的预测低了近 50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&amp;P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场定价符合分析师的预期，而不是考虑到可能的经济衰退，标普500崩盘并花了 7 年时间才恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0081f4a9c3ee43b20684f113cb04ef9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's get back to today... The P/E of the S&amp;P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到今天……标普500目前的市盈率为25.4倍，与历史水平相比极高。人们普遍认为盈利将继续大幅增长，这证明了这一点。因此，到 2022 年底，该比率将降至可接受的 20.7 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Now ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>现在问问自己，未来几个季度盈利增长继续高于历史平均水平的可能性有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.</p><p><blockquote>利率已经是0%了。印钞机快没纸了。联邦债务水平正在达到上限。被压抑的需求和刺激支票已经导致过去几个季度的消费者支出创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.</p><p><blockquote>也许，只是也许，分析师对他们的假设太贪婪了？也许最近的经济复苏是不可持续的，将会降温？也许我的假设（灰线）比市场预测（红线）更有可能？如果是这样，市场的 fwd 2022 市盈率为 23.6 倍，这确实很贵。</blockquote></p><p> I'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定这会发生，没人会。但这肯定是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61310c3c851b181ceb1fb3cc8862fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.</p><p><blockquote>这种贪婪也反映在图表中。如下图所示，牛市可以分为四个周期。强劲增长、熊市陷阱、媒体关注和贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，2013-2021年的牛市与1994-2000年的牛市几乎完全相同。此时此刻，纳斯达克指数（QQQ）看起来已经准备好开始最后的极度贪婪阶段。媒体将最近的反弹视为“新常态”，投资者正在大量买入FOMO，因为股票“只能上涨”。因此，纳斯达克可能会在 2021 年最后几个月上涨接近 20,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> As a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，了解这些动态极其重要。你可能也会有全力投资风险资产的冲动。然而，在这个阶段变得贪婪可能会对你的长期回报构成重大威胁，因为随后可能会出现一场大熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c783bf0cff4c410846a27c2dc8c180b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Human behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.</p><p><blockquote>人类的行为使得不被市场情绪分散注意力变得极具挑战性。如果你能对市场保持客观的看法，这将极大地有利于你的回报。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.坚持投资，机会总是有的</blockquote></p><p> In short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，第一条规则说，你的决定永远不应该被情绪所左右，你应该继续关注潜在的基本面。随着今天市场变得越来越贪婪，估值达到极端水平，这意味着你应该开始出售股票并持有大量现金，对吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not really... You know, a wise man once said the following:</p><p><blockquote>不完全是……你知道，一位智者曾经说过这样一句话：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.</b>  I'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.</p><p><blockquote><b>这是股票市场，不是股票市场。</b>我不完全确定是谁想出来的。但肯定是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> What does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？看，许多散户投资者根据整体市场前景买卖股票。如果他们不信任市场，无论如何都会不愿意投资。</blockquote></p><p> That's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.</p><p><blockquote>这不是看待市场的好方法。有近4,000只股票可供选择，无论市场如何发展，总会有有趣的投资机会产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.</p><p><blockquote>在一个普遍被高估的市场中，找到被低估的股票变得越来越具有挑战性，但肯定不是不可能的。问问沃伦·巴菲特。2000年，历史上被高估最严重的股市，他的投资工具伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）继续购买优质、被低估的资产。他的奉献得到了回报，在互联网高峰五年后，他获得了令人印象深刻的47%的回报率，而纳斯达克指数的回报率为-39%。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.</p><p><blockquote>罗素2000指数（IWM）是一个反映美国小盘股的指数，在互联网泡沫期间也非常有吸引力，2000年的市盈率为16倍（大盘股为24倍）。那些在泡沫期间投资这一被低估资产类别的人也产生了非常可观的回报。我可以想象，那些能够挑选出最好的小盘股的人比那些被过度炒作的科技股欺骗的人快乐得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c713a296e819a255b3be8ac6e504033d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.</p><p><blockquote>那么你今天应该做什么呢？我建议重新评估你所有的投资组合。将它们的估值与 3 年后的收益进行权衡，届时 Covid-19 中断（刺激措施、被压抑的需求等）消失。对你的假设要保守。如果一只股票与这些假设相比被严重高估，不要贪婪并卖出头寸。</blockquote></p><p> A great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.</p><p><blockquote>一个很好的例子是苹果公司（AAPL），它是今年最受欢迎的股票之一。由于其非常强劲的财务状况（上季度收入增长 36.4%），其市盈率在过去两年中翻了一番多，达到 30 倍。重要的是要明白，其最近的增长主要是由于不可持续的驱动因素，如几轮刺激支票。一旦这种情况消失，苹果的增长可能会回落到个位数（甚至可能在短期内为负），未来的回报将非常疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Don't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&amp;P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>不要把所有释放的资本都保留在现金中，尤其是在当前的通胀环境下。仍然有机会将这笔钱进行再投资。在我看来，小盘股是当今最具吸引力的资产类别，就像 2000 年一样。在最近表现不佳之后，罗素2000指数（代表所有美国小型股）今天的市盈率为15.6倍。这远低于标普500指数及其历史平均水平。有很多小盘股机会，未来将产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f132a93975b3b7fef86aff21c0b49bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yardeni</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚德尼</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.采用行之有效的投资策略选股</b></blockquote></p><p> Rule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.</p><p><blockquote>规则#1和#2在纸面上看起来很好，但在现实中很难执行。当紧要关头时，很难否认自己的情绪，并在估值过高的市场中找到有趣的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> That's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是#3发挥作用的地方：采用行之有效的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> With the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市即将到来的挑战，我相信在高度不确定的市场环境中，遵循预先确定的策略从未像今天这样重要。如果你使用过去行之有效的策略，你会在每个市场环境中感觉很棒。</blockquote></p><p> There are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>只要你坚持下去，有很多策略对你有用。我们坚信，我们在内部机会方面被低估的战略将在未来几年非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p> To find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找有吸引力的投资机会，我们每天都会跟踪内部购买情况。内部人士是首席财务官、首席执行官、董事会成员等。他们比市场上任何人都更了解自己的业务。如果他们看到股价和业务基本面之间脱节，他们可以购买股票来产生利润。您可以通过 SEC 文件或 openinsider.com 等网站每天跟踪这种所谓“聪明资金”的购买情况。</blockquote></p><p> We don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".</p><p><blockquote>我们不只是跟进内部购买。我们基于过去十年中超过一百万个数据点创建了三个算法，从所有内部购买中挑选出最好的。因此，我们坚持预先确定的计划，只购买基于特定基本面有吸引力的股票，称为“黄金选择”。</blockquote></p><p> It worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&amp;P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>它在过去非常有效。我们的回测显示，该策略在过去十年中产生了 47.2% 的年化回报率，是标普500指数的三倍。仅在2011年，它的表现略低于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05af9240a87a55641df0a7921ec0380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：内幕机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>我们坚信，无论市场表现如何，这一革命性的策略都将继续在股票市场为我们创造财富。给自己找一个像我们这样严格的、行之有效的策略，在即将到来的不确定性中，你可以依靠它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Do this at all-time highs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：在历史高点这样做</b></blockquote></p><p> Most stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?</p><p><blockquote>当创下历史新高时，大多数股市投资者都在固步自封。最重要的是，在这样的牛市里，什么事都不会出错吧？</blockquote></p><p> No, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>不，事情不是这样的。市场在周期中演变，那些不认识到适应这些周期重要性的人将面临疲软的长期回报。</blockquote></p><p> How should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:</p><p><blockquote>你应该如何接近今天的历史高点，以继续创造财富？以下是我的三条黄金法则：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>Don't get greedy.</b>As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.</li>  <li><b>Keep being invested.</b>Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.</li>  <li><b>Adopt a proven strategy.</b>Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>不要贪婪。</b>作为情绪行为的结果，当市场反弹时，你会想要承担更高的风险。永远不要跟随这些情绪，永远关注基本面。</li><li><b>继续投资。</b>不要仅仅因为市场被高估就不愿意投资股票。承认这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。每个市场环境中总有巨大的机会。如今，它们大多是低调的小盘股。</li><li><b>采用行之有效的策略。</b>投资并不容易，尤其是当事情开始向南发展的时候。采用严格的、行之有效的投资策略可以让生活变得更加轻松，并显着提高回报。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点投资的 3 条黄金法则</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点投资的 3 条黄金法则</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 14:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Markets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.</li>  <li>As markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.</li>  <li>What should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?</li>  <li>In this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5f0c9f1aacfbc6d8c78d0e84da5fc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>phive2015/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场每周继续创下历史新高，并且在 200 多个交易日中没有出现明显的调整。</li><li>随着市场反弹，许多投资者开始固步自封，而处于历史高点的投资决策实际上比以往任何时候都更加重要。</li><li>在当今的市场上，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格抛售，还是今天买入仍然能获得丰厚的回报？</li><li>在这篇文章中，我将分享我关于如何在今天这样的历史高点进行投资的三条黄金法则。这些信息对你未来在市场上创造财富非常有价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>phive2015/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.</p><p><blockquote>2021年股市一路狂飙。8月底，标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）年初至今上涨20.4%。有趣的是，该指数一直在非常狭窄的上涨区间内交易，并且在208个交易日中没有出现5%的修正。虽然大多数投资者并不认为这是一种异常现象，但实际上却是。这两种事件在股市历史上只发生过7次。我们显然生活在一个不正常的时代。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ccc72065c84083443d6be7f03482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.</p><p><blockquote>每天仔细考虑你所做的投资决策是很重要的。最重要的是，所有的购买或销售都会影响你未来在市场上的财富积累。</blockquote></p><p> However, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在像今天这样的极端反弹期间，反思你的投资决策更加重要。问问那些在互联网泡沫期间承担高风险或在 Covid-19 崩盘期间恐慌性抛售的投资者。这无疑对他们的长期回报产生了巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> The importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.</p><p><blockquote>今天的投资决策对你的长期回报很重要，这就是为什么我选择写我关于如何在历史高点投资的三条黄金法则。你应该如何对待今天的市场，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格卖出并等待调整发生，还是在这些水平买入时仍然能产生丰厚的回报？这篇文章将提供这些百万美元问题的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don't get caught by greediness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要被贪婪抓住</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从最重要的规则开始。避免贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&amp;P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通的数据，在过去的20年里，投资者的平均年回报率仅为2.9%。因此，它们的表现明显逊于一般市场，因为标普500在此期间的年回报率为 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者表现不佳的最重要原因是什么？情感人类行为。</blockquote></p><p> The average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.</p><p><blockquote>普通投资者受到媒体头条、股价变动和其他投资者行为的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&amp;P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们到达了一个极度看涨的股市环境。上个财报季是股市历史上最伟大的财报季之一。标普500每股收益同比增长 94.5%，86.1% 的成分股超出分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> As a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:</p><p><blockquote>由于这种看涨环境，分析师正在大幅提高对未来几个季度的预期。他们现在预计，到 2022 年底，每股收益将大幅升至 217.96 美元，较大流行前的高点 157.12 美元大幅回升。这样的复苏看起来很乐观，因为在过去的经济周期中，需要 7-12 年才能实现这一目标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1accc921d16b11ec13ed94686b9cfe75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于标准普尔全球数据的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Will earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度盈利真的会继续强劲复苏吗？还是分析师的假设太贪婪了？</blockquote></p><p> It wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们太贪婪，这也不是第一次了。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，他们也被自己的情绪所困扰。就标普500的盈利增长而言，90 年代是异常强劲的十年。因此，分析师完全忘记了下降周期也存在。他们将 2000 年后五年的年度每股收益增长指导提高到惊人的 15%。根据他们的说法，这种高增长率证明了股票交易市盈率创纪录的合理性，许多投资者被骗进了这个故事。</blockquote></p><p> What happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>后来发生了什么？经济没有繁荣，而是陷入了衰退，花了3年时间才恢复过来。2003 年的收益比分析师 2000 年的预测低了近 50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&amp;P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场定价符合分析师的预期，而不是考虑到可能的经济衰退，标普500崩盘并花了 7 年时间才恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0081f4a9c3ee43b20684f113cb04ef9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's get back to today... The P/E of the S&amp;P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到今天……标普500目前的市盈率为25.4倍，与历史水平相比极高。人们普遍认为盈利将继续大幅增长，这证明了这一点。因此，到 2022 年底，该比率将降至可接受的 20.7 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Now ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>现在问问自己，未来几个季度盈利增长继续高于历史平均水平的可能性有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.</p><p><blockquote>利率已经是0%了。印钞机快没纸了。联邦债务水平正在达到上限。被压抑的需求和刺激支票已经导致过去几个季度的消费者支出创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.</p><p><blockquote>也许，只是也许，分析师对他们的假设太贪婪了？也许最近的经济复苏是不可持续的，将会降温？也许我的假设（灰线）比市场预测（红线）更有可能？如果是这样，市场的 fwd 2022 市盈率为 23.6 倍，这确实很贵。</blockquote></p><p> I'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定这会发生，没人会。但这肯定是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61310c3c851b181ceb1fb3cc8862fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.</p><p><blockquote>这种贪婪也反映在图表中。如下图所示，牛市可以分为四个周期。强劲增长、熊市陷阱、媒体关注和贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，2013-2021年的牛市与1994-2000年的牛市几乎完全相同。此时此刻，纳斯达克指数（QQQ）看起来已经准备好开始最后的极度贪婪阶段。媒体将最近的反弹视为“新常态”，投资者正在大量买入FOMO，因为股票“只能上涨”。因此，纳斯达克可能会在 2021 年最后几个月上涨接近 20,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> As a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，了解这些动态极其重要。你可能也会有全力投资风险资产的冲动。然而，在这个阶段变得贪婪可能会对你的长期回报构成重大威胁，因为随后可能会出现一场大熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c783bf0cff4c410846a27c2dc8c180b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Human behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.</p><p><blockquote>人类的行为使得不被市场情绪分散注意力变得极具挑战性。如果你能对市场保持客观的看法，这将极大地有利于你的回报。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.坚持投资，机会总是有的</blockquote></p><p> In short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，第一条规则说，你的决定永远不应该被情绪所左右，你应该继续关注潜在的基本面。随着今天市场变得越来越贪婪，估值达到极端水平，这意味着你应该开始出售股票并持有大量现金，对吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not really... You know, a wise man once said the following:</p><p><blockquote>不完全是……你知道，一位智者曾经说过这样一句话：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.</b>  I'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.</p><p><blockquote><b>这是股票市场，不是股票市场。</b>我不完全确定是谁想出来的。但肯定是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> What does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？看，许多散户投资者根据整体市场前景买卖股票。如果他们不信任市场，无论如何都会不愿意投资。</blockquote></p><p> That's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.</p><p><blockquote>这不是看待市场的好方法。有近4,000只股票可供选择，无论市场如何发展，总会有有趣的投资机会产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.</p><p><blockquote>在一个普遍被高估的市场中，找到被低估的股票变得越来越具有挑战性，但肯定不是不可能的。问问沃伦·巴菲特。2000年，历史上被高估最严重的股市，他的投资工具伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）继续购买优质、被低估的资产。他的奉献得到了回报，在互联网高峰五年后，他获得了令人印象深刻的47%的回报率，而纳斯达克指数的回报率为-39%。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.</p><p><blockquote>罗素2000指数（IWM）是一个反映美国小盘股的指数，在互联网泡沫期间也非常有吸引力，2000年的市盈率为16倍（大盘股为24倍）。那些在泡沫期间投资这一被低估资产类别的人也产生了非常可观的回报。我可以想象，那些能够挑选出最好的小盘股的人比那些被过度炒作的科技股欺骗的人快乐得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c713a296e819a255b3be8ac6e504033d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.</p><p><blockquote>那么你今天应该做什么呢？我建议重新评估你所有的投资组合。将它们的估值与 3 年后的收益进行权衡，届时 Covid-19 中断（刺激措施、被压抑的需求等）消失。对你的假设要保守。如果一只股票与这些假设相比被严重高估，不要贪婪并卖出头寸。</blockquote></p><p> A great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.</p><p><blockquote>一个很好的例子是苹果公司（AAPL），它是今年最受欢迎的股票之一。由于其非常强劲的财务状况（上季度收入增长 36.4%），其市盈率在过去两年中翻了一番多，达到 30 倍。重要的是要明白，其最近的增长主要是由于不可持续的驱动因素，如几轮刺激支票。一旦这种情况消失，苹果的增长可能会回落到个位数（甚至可能在短期内为负），未来的回报将非常疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Don't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&amp;P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>不要把所有释放的资本都保留在现金中，尤其是在当前的通胀环境下。仍然有机会将这笔钱进行再投资。在我看来，小盘股是当今最具吸引力的资产类别，就像 2000 年一样。在最近表现不佳之后，罗素2000指数（代表所有美国小型股）今天的市盈率为15.6倍。这远低于标普500指数及其历史平均水平。有很多小盘股机会，未来将产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f132a93975b3b7fef86aff21c0b49bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yardeni</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚德尼</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.采用行之有效的投资策略选股</b></blockquote></p><p> Rule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.</p><p><blockquote>规则#1和#2在纸面上看起来很好，但在现实中很难执行。当紧要关头时，很难否认自己的情绪，并在估值过高的市场中找到有趣的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> That's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是#3发挥作用的地方：采用行之有效的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> With the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市即将到来的挑战，我相信在高度不确定的市场环境中，遵循预先确定的策略从未像今天这样重要。如果你使用过去行之有效的策略，你会在每个市场环境中感觉很棒。</blockquote></p><p> There are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>只要你坚持下去，有很多策略对你有用。我们坚信，我们在内部机会方面被低估的战略将在未来几年非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p> To find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找有吸引力的投资机会，我们每天都会跟踪内部购买情况。内部人士是首席财务官、首席执行官、董事会成员等。他们比市场上任何人都更了解自己的业务。如果他们看到股价和业务基本面之间脱节，他们可以购买股票来产生利润。您可以通过 SEC 文件或 openinsider.com 等网站每天跟踪这种所谓“聪明资金”的购买情况。</blockquote></p><p> We don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".</p><p><blockquote>我们不只是跟进内部购买。我们基于过去十年中超过一百万个数据点创建了三个算法，从所有内部购买中挑选出最好的。因此，我们坚持预先确定的计划，只购买基于特定基本面有吸引力的股票，称为“黄金选择”。</blockquote></p><p> It worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&amp;P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>它在过去非常有效。我们的回测显示，该策略在过去十年中产生了 47.2% 的年化回报率，是标普500指数的三倍。仅在2011年，它的表现略低于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05af9240a87a55641df0a7921ec0380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：内幕机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>我们坚信，无论市场表现如何，这一革命性的策略都将继续在股票市场为我们创造财富。给自己找一个像我们这样严格的、行之有效的策略，在即将到来的不确定性中，你可以依靠它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Do this at all-time highs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：在历史高点这样做</b></blockquote></p><p> Most stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?</p><p><blockquote>当创下历史新高时，大多数股市投资者都在固步自封。最重要的是，在这样的牛市里，什么事都不会出错吧？</blockquote></p><p> No, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>不，事情不是这样的。市场在周期中演变，那些不认识到适应这些周期重要性的人将面临疲软的长期回报。</blockquote></p><p> How should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:</p><p><blockquote>你应该如何接近今天的历史高点，以继续创造财富？以下是我的三条黄金法则：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>Don't get greedy.</b>As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.</li>  <li><b>Keep being invested.</b>Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.</li>  <li><b>Adopt a proven strategy.</b>Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>不要贪婪。</b>作为情绪行为的结果，当市场反弹时，你会想要承担更高的风险。永远不要跟随这些情绪，永远关注基本面。</li><li><b>继续投资。</b>不要仅仅因为市场被高估就不愿意投资股票。承认这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。每个市场环境中总有巨大的机会。如今，它们大多是低调的小盘股。</li><li><b>采用行之有效的策略。</b>投资并不容易，尤其是当事情开始向南发展的时候。采用严格的、行之有效的投资策略可以让生活变得更加轻松，并显着提高回报。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453541-3-golden-rules-on-how-to-invest-at-all-time-highs\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453541-3-golden-rules-on-how-to-invest-at-all-time-highs","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186375251","content_text":"Summary\n\nMarkets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.\nAs markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.\nWhat should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?\nIn this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.\n\nphive2015/iStock via Getty Images\nThe stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.\nSource: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview\nEach day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.\nHowever, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.\nThe importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.\n1. Don't get caught by greediness\nLet's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.\nAccording to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.\nThe single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.\nThe average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.\nToday, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.\nAs a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data; adjusted EPS is used\nWill earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?\nIt wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.\nWhat happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.\nAs markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used\nLet's get back to today... The P/E of the S&P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.\nNow ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.\nInterest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.\nMaybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.\nI'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used\nThis greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.\nInterestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.\nAs a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.\nSource: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview\nHuman behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.\n2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities\nIn short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?\nNot really... You know, a wise man once said the following:\n\nIt's a market of stocks, not a stock market.\n\nI'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.\nWhat does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.\nThat's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.\nIn a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.\nThe Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.\nData by YCharts\nSo what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.\nA great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.\nDon't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.\nSource: Yardeni\n3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks\nRule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.\nThat's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.\nWith the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.\nThere are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.\nTo find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.\nWe don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".\nIt worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.\nSource: Insider Opportunities\n\nWe firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.\nConclusion: Do this at all-time highs\nMost stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?\nNo, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.\nHow should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:\n\nDon't get greedy.As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.\nKeep being invested.Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.\nAdopt a proven strategy.Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}