zero79的个人主页 - 老虎社区

zero79

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2021-12-29

Cool

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2021-12-27

Good

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2021-12-26

Great

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2021-12-25

Good

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2021-12-24

Scwry

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2021-12-24

Scary

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2021-12-23

Goof

U.S. adds Merck pill as 2nd easy-to-use drug against COVID-19<blockquote>美国将默克药丸作为第二种易于使用的抗COVID-19药物</blockquote>

2021-12-22

Good

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2021-12-20

Good

Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>

2021-12-19

Good

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2021-12-18

$$$

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2021-12-16

[Miser]

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2021-12-16

Cool

Why analysts love Apple right now<blockquote>为什么分析师现在喜欢苹果</blockquote>

2021-12-16

Good

Toplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>

2021-12-15

[Miser]

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2021-12-14

Oh some

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2021-12-13

Will up!?

Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、联邦快递、Lennar、金宝汤等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>

2021-12-10

Dropping

Grab shares dropped another 2% in premarket trading<blockquote>Grab股价在盘前交易中又下跌2%</blockquote>

2021-12-06

Scarry

Even Good Penny Stocks Like Senseonics Aren’t Always Profitable<blockquote>即使是像Senseonics这样优秀的细价股也不总是盈利</blockquote>

2021-12-04

Rough week

US IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：数字银行和云基础设施引领IPO周4</blockquote>

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22:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. adds Merck pill as 2nd easy-to-use drug against COVID-19<blockquote>美国将默克药丸作为第二种易于使用的抗COVID-19药物</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192623075","media":"SeattleTimes","summary":"U.S. health regulators on Thursday authorized the second pill against COVID-19, providing another ea","content":"<p>U.S. health regulators on Thursday authorized the second pill against COVID-19, providing another easy-to-use medication to battle the rising tide of omicron infections.</p><p><blockquote>美国卫生监管机构周四批准了第二种针对COVID-19的药物，提供了另一种易于使用的药物来对抗不断上升的奥密克戎感染浪潮。</blockquote></p><p> The Food and Drug Administration authorization of Merck’s molnupiravir comes one day after the agency cleared a competing drug from Pfizer. That pill, Paxlovid, is likely to become the first-choice treatment against the virus, thanks to its superior benefits and milder side effects.</p><p><blockquote>美国食品和药物管理局批准默克公司的molnupiravir的一天前，该机构批准了辉瑞公司的一种竞争药物。这种名为Paxlovid的药物很可能成为针对该病毒的首选治疗方法，因为它具有优越的益处和较温和的副作用。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, Merck’s pill is expected to have a smaller role against the pandemic than predicted just a few weeks ago. Its ability to head off severe COVID-19 is much smaller than initially announced and the drug label will warn of serious safety issues, including the potential for birth defects.</p><p><blockquote>因此，默克公司的药物预计对疫情的作用将比几周前预测的要小。它阻止严重新冠肺炎的能力比最初宣布的要小得多，药物标签将警告严重的安全问题，包括潜在的出生缺陷。</blockquote></p><p> The Food and Drug Administration authorized Merck’s drug for adults with early symptoms of COVID-19 who face the highest risks of hospitalization, including older people and those with conditions like obesity and heart disease. The U.K. first authorized the pill in early November.</p><p><blockquote>美国食品和药物管理局批准默克公司的药物用于患有COVID-19早期症状且住院风险最高的成年人，包括老年人以及患有肥胖症和心脏病等疾病的人。英国于11月初首次批准了该药物。</blockquote></p><p> Known as molnupiravir, the Merck drug will carry a warning against use during pregnancy. Women of childbearing age should use birth control during treatment and for a few days after while men should use birth control for at least three months after their final dose, the FDA said.</p><p><blockquote>默克公司的这种药物被称为molnupiravir，将带有禁止在怀孕期间使用的警告。FDA表示，育龄妇女应在治疗期间和治疗后几天内采取避孕措施，而男性应在最后一次给药后至少三个月内采取避孕措施。</blockquote></p><p> The restrictions were expected after an FDA advisory panel only narrowly endorsed the drug last month, warning that its use would have to be strictly tailored to patients who can benefit the most.</p><p><blockquote>FDA顾问小组上个月仅以微弱优势批准了该药物，并警告称其使用必须严格针对能够受益最大的患者，因此这些限制是意料之中的。</blockquote></p><p> The Pfizer pill works differently and doesn’t carry the same risks. Additionally, Pfizer’s drug was roughly three times more effective in testing, reducing hospitalization and death by nearly 90% among high-risk patients, compared with 30% for Merck’s.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞药丸的作用方式不同，也没有同样的风险。此外，辉瑞的药物在测试中的有效性大约是三倍，将高危患者的住院和死亡人数减少了近90%，而默克的药物减少了30%。</blockquote></p><p> Some experts question whether there will be much of a role for the Merck drug in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>一些专家质疑默克公司的药物在美国是否会发挥很大作用。</blockquote></p><p> “To the extent that there’s an ample supply of Pfizer’s pill, I think it won’t be used,” said Dr. Gregory Poland of the Mayo Clinic, referring to the Merck drug. “There would be no reason, given it has less efficacy and a higher risk of side effects.”</p><p><blockquote>梅奥诊所的格雷戈里·波兰博士在谈到默克公司的药物时说：“如果辉瑞公司的药物供应充足，我认为它不会被使用。”“没有理由，因为它的功效较低且副作用风险较高。”</blockquote></p><p> For now, the FDA decision provides another potential option against the virus that has killed more than 800,000 Americans, even as health officials brace for record-setting cases, hospitalizations and deaths driven by the omicron variant. Antiviral pills, including Merck’s, are expected to be effective against omicron because they don’t target the spike protein where most of the variant’s worrisome mutations reside.</p><p><blockquote>目前，FDA的决定为对抗已导致超过80万美国人死亡的病毒提供了另一种潜在选择，尽管卫生官员正在为奥密克戎变种导致的创纪录病例、住院和死亡做好准备。包括默克公司在内的抗病毒药物预计对奥密克戎病毒有效，因为它们不针对该变种大多数令人担忧的突变所在的刺突蛋白。</blockquote></p><p> The FDA based its decision on results showing nearly 7% of patients taking the drug ended up in the hospital and one died at the end of 30 days. That compared with 10% of patients hospitalized who were taking the placebo and nine deaths.</p><p><blockquote>FDA的决定是基于结果显示，近7%服用该药物的患者最终住院，其中一人在30天后死亡。相比之下，服用安慰剂的住院患者比例为10%，死亡人数为9人。</blockquote></p><p> Federal officials have agreed to purchase enough of the drug to treat 3.1 million people.</p><p><blockquote>联邦官员已同意购买足够治疗310万人的药物。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. will pay about $700 for each course of Merck’s drug, which requires patients to take four pills twice a day for five days. A review by Harvard University and King’s College London estimated it costs about $18 to make each 40-pill course of treatment.</p><p><blockquote>美国将为默克公司的每个疗程支付约700美元，该疗程要求患者每天两次服用四粒药丸，持续五天。哈佛大学和伦敦国王学院的一项审查估计，每个40粒药丸的疗程费用约为18美元。</blockquote></p><p> Merck’s drug inserts tiny errors into the coronavirus’ genetic code to slow its reproduction. That genetic effect has raised concerns that the drug could cause mutations in human fetuses and even spur more virulent strains of the virus. But FDA scientists said the variant risk is largely theoretical because people take the drug for such a short period of time.</p><p><blockquote>默克公司的药物在冠状病毒的遗传密码中插入微小错误，以减缓其繁殖。这种遗传效应引发了人们的担忧，即该药物可能会导致人类胎儿发生突变，甚至刺激更强的病毒株。但FDA科学家表示，变异风险很大程度上是理论上的，因为人们服用这种药物的时间很短。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1640271591192","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. adds Merck pill as 2nd easy-to-use drug against COVID-19<blockquote>美国将默克药丸作为第二种易于使用的抗COVID-19药物</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. adds Merck pill as 2nd easy-to-use drug against COVID-19<blockquote>美国将默克药丸作为第二种易于使用的抗COVID-19药物</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">SeattleTimes</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 22:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. health regulators on Thursday authorized the second pill against COVID-19, providing another easy-to-use medication to battle the rising tide of omicron infections.</p><p><blockquote>美国卫生监管机构周四批准了第二种针对COVID-19的药物，提供了另一种易于使用的药物来对抗不断上升的奥密克戎感染浪潮。</blockquote></p><p> The Food and Drug Administration authorization of Merck’s molnupiravir comes one day after the agency cleared a competing drug from Pfizer. That pill, Paxlovid, is likely to become the first-choice treatment against the virus, thanks to its superior benefits and milder side effects.</p><p><blockquote>美国食品和药物管理局批准默克公司的molnupiravir的一天前，该机构批准了辉瑞公司的一种竞争药物。这种名为Paxlovid的药物很可能成为针对该病毒的首选治疗方法，因为它具有优越的益处和较温和的副作用。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, Merck’s pill is expected to have a smaller role against the pandemic than predicted just a few weeks ago. Its ability to head off severe COVID-19 is much smaller than initially announced and the drug label will warn of serious safety issues, including the potential for birth defects.</p><p><blockquote>因此，默克公司的药物预计对疫情的作用将比几周前预测的要小。它阻止严重新冠肺炎的能力比最初宣布的要小得多，药物标签将警告严重的安全问题，包括潜在的出生缺陷。</blockquote></p><p> The Food and Drug Administration authorized Merck’s drug for adults with early symptoms of COVID-19 who face the highest risks of hospitalization, including older people and those with conditions like obesity and heart disease. The U.K. first authorized the pill in early November.</p><p><blockquote>美国食品和药物管理局批准默克公司的药物用于患有COVID-19早期症状且住院风险最高的成年人，包括老年人以及患有肥胖症和心脏病等疾病的人。英国于11月初首次批准了该药物。</blockquote></p><p> Known as molnupiravir, the Merck drug will carry a warning against use during pregnancy. Women of childbearing age should use birth control during treatment and for a few days after while men should use birth control for at least three months after their final dose, the FDA said.</p><p><blockquote>默克公司的这种药物被称为molnupiravir，将带有禁止在怀孕期间使用的警告。FDA表示，育龄妇女应在治疗期间和治疗后几天内采取避孕措施，而男性应在最后一次给药后至少三个月内采取避孕措施。</blockquote></p><p> The restrictions were expected after an FDA advisory panel only narrowly endorsed the drug last month, warning that its use would have to be strictly tailored to patients who can benefit the most.</p><p><blockquote>FDA顾问小组上个月仅以微弱优势批准了该药物，并警告称其使用必须严格针对能够受益最大的患者，因此这些限制是意料之中的。</blockquote></p><p> The Pfizer pill works differently and doesn’t carry the same risks. Additionally, Pfizer’s drug was roughly three times more effective in testing, reducing hospitalization and death by nearly 90% among high-risk patients, compared with 30% for Merck’s.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞药丸的作用方式不同，也没有同样的风险。此外，辉瑞的药物在测试中的有效性大约是三倍，将高危患者的住院和死亡人数减少了近90%，而默克的药物减少了30%。</blockquote></p><p> Some experts question whether there will be much of a role for the Merck drug in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>一些专家质疑默克公司的药物在美国是否会发挥很大作用。</blockquote></p><p> “To the extent that there’s an ample supply of Pfizer’s pill, I think it won’t be used,” said Dr. Gregory Poland of the Mayo Clinic, referring to the Merck drug. “There would be no reason, given it has less efficacy and a higher risk of side effects.”</p><p><blockquote>梅奥诊所的格雷戈里·波兰博士在谈到默克公司的药物时说：“如果辉瑞公司的药物供应充足，我认为它不会被使用。”“没有理由，因为它的功效较低且副作用风险较高。”</blockquote></p><p> For now, the FDA decision provides another potential option against the virus that has killed more than 800,000 Americans, even as health officials brace for record-setting cases, hospitalizations and deaths driven by the omicron variant. Antiviral pills, including Merck’s, are expected to be effective against omicron because they don’t target the spike protein where most of the variant’s worrisome mutations reside.</p><p><blockquote>目前，FDA的决定为对抗已导致超过80万美国人死亡的病毒提供了另一种潜在选择，尽管卫生官员正在为奥密克戎变种导致的创纪录病例、住院和死亡做好准备。包括默克公司在内的抗病毒药物预计对奥密克戎病毒有效，因为它们不针对该变种大多数令人担忧的突变所在的刺突蛋白。</blockquote></p><p> The FDA based its decision on results showing nearly 7% of patients taking the drug ended up in the hospital and one died at the end of 30 days. That compared with 10% of patients hospitalized who were taking the placebo and nine deaths.</p><p><blockquote>FDA的决定是基于结果显示，近7%服用该药物的患者最终住院，其中一人在30天后死亡。相比之下，服用安慰剂的住院患者比例为10%，死亡人数为9人。</blockquote></p><p> Federal officials have agreed to purchase enough of the drug to treat 3.1 million people.</p><p><blockquote>联邦官员已同意购买足够治疗310万人的药物。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. will pay about $700 for each course of Merck’s drug, which requires patients to take four pills twice a day for five days. A review by Harvard University and King’s College London estimated it costs about $18 to make each 40-pill course of treatment.</p><p><blockquote>美国将为默克公司的每个疗程支付约700美元，该疗程要求患者每天两次服用四粒药丸，持续五天。哈佛大学和伦敦国王学院的一项审查估计，每个40粒药丸的疗程费用约为18美元。</blockquote></p><p> Merck’s drug inserts tiny errors into the coronavirus’ genetic code to slow its reproduction. That genetic effect has raised concerns that the drug could cause mutations in human fetuses and even spur more virulent strains of the virus. But FDA scientists said the variant risk is largely theoretical because people take the drug for such a short period of time.</p><p><blockquote>默克公司的药物在冠状病毒的遗传密码中插入微小错误，以减缓其繁殖。这种遗传效应引发了人们的担忧，即该药物可能会导致人类胎儿发生突变，甚至刺激更强的病毒株。但FDA科学家表示，变异风险很大程度上是理论上的，因为人们服用这种药物的时间很短。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.seattletimes.com/business/us-adds-merck-pill-as-2nd-easy-to-use-drug-against-covid-19/\">SeattleTimes</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRK":"默沙东","PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://www.seattletimes.com/business/us-adds-merck-pill-as-2nd-easy-to-use-drug-against-covid-19/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192623075","content_text":"U.S. health regulators on Thursday authorized the second pill against COVID-19, providing another easy-to-use medication to battle the rising tide of omicron infections.\nThe Food and Drug Administration authorization of Merck’s molnupiravir comes one day after the agency cleared a competing drug from Pfizer. That pill, Paxlovid, is likely to become the first-choice treatment against the virus, thanks to its superior benefits and milder side effects.\nAs a result, Merck’s pill is expected to have a smaller role against the pandemic than predicted just a few weeks ago. Its ability to head off severe COVID-19 is much smaller than initially announced and the drug label will warn of serious safety issues, including the potential for birth defects.\nThe Food and Drug Administration authorized Merck’s drug for adults with early symptoms of COVID-19 who face the highest risks of hospitalization, including older people and those with conditions like obesity and heart disease. The U.K. first authorized the pill in early November.\nKnown as molnupiravir, the Merck drug will carry a warning against use during pregnancy. Women of childbearing age should use birth control during treatment and for a few days after while men should use birth control for at least three months after their final dose, the FDA said.\nThe restrictions were expected after an FDA advisory panel only narrowly endorsed the drug last month, warning that its use would have to be strictly tailored to patients who can benefit the most.\nThe Pfizer pill works differently and doesn’t carry the same risks. Additionally, Pfizer’s drug was roughly three times more effective in testing, reducing hospitalization and death by nearly 90% among high-risk patients, compared with 30% for Merck’s.\nSome experts question whether there will be much of a role for the Merck drug in the U.S.\n“To the extent that there’s an ample supply of Pfizer’s pill, I think it won’t be used,” said Dr. Gregory Poland of the Mayo Clinic, referring to the Merck drug. “There would be no reason, given it has less efficacy and a higher risk of side effects.”\nFor now, the FDA decision provides another potential option against the virus that has killed more than 800,000 Americans, even as health officials brace for record-setting cases, hospitalizations and deaths driven by the omicron variant. Antiviral pills, including Merck’s, are expected to be effective against omicron because they don’t target the spike protein where most of the variant’s worrisome mutations reside.\nThe FDA based its decision on results showing nearly 7% of patients taking the drug ended up in the hospital and one died at the end of 30 days. That compared with 10% of patients hospitalized who were taking the placebo and nine deaths.\nFederal officials have agreed to purchase enough of the drug to treat 3.1 million people.\nThe U.S. will pay about $700 for each course of Merck’s drug, which requires patients to take four pills twice a day for five days. A review by Harvard University and King’s College London estimated it costs about $18 to make each 40-pill course of treatment.\nMerck’s drug inserts tiny errors into the coronavirus’ genetic code to slow its reproduction. That genetic effect has raised concerns that the drug could cause mutations in human fetuses and even spur more virulent strains of the virus. But FDA scientists said the variant risk is largely theoretical because people take the drug for such a short period of time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":0.9,"MRK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691655284,"gmtCreate":1640187230253,"gmtModify":1640187230433,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691655284","repostId":"2193192720","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693361156,"gmtCreate":1639972382501,"gmtModify":1639972382674,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693361156","repostId":"1183475424","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183475424","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639967829,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1183475424?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 10:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183475424","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWith inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to a","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>With inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.</li>  <li>While rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.</li>  <li>Apple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.</li>  <li>Its strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.</li>  <li>As such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf73ac36a98ce54b343c7e6b613f4d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>guvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着通胀处于40年来最热的阶段，美联储决定加快刺激缩减时间表，并为最早在3月份加息做准备。</li><li>尽管由于担心估值前景受到侵蚀，加息历来会阻止投资者购买成长型股票，但苹果股票在很大程度上仍保持弹性。</li><li>在对其现有产品的强劲需求以及AR/VR和自动驾驶汽车等新兴技术带来的新机遇的支持下，苹果预计将在未来实现更多增长。</li><li>其强劲的净现金状况也提供了足够的干粉来为未来几年的额外增长提供资金，而不会在利率上升的情况下产生额外的资本成本。</li><li>因此，尽管未来存在更广泛的市场估值风险，但随着苹果估值接近3万亿美元，其看涨论点仍然完好无损。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>guvendemir/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)&nbsp;has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by&nbsp;more than 220x&nbsp;since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.</p><p><blockquote>作为全球表现最好的股票之一，苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）今年以来涨幅接近40%。该股不久前曾达到182.13美元的峰值，目前距离成为第一家市值达到3万亿美元的美国上市公司还不到7%，仅占以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数的15%左右。自20世纪90年代末以来，苹果的市值增长了220倍以上，这得益于该公司不断抓住对其创新产品和服务组合的强劲需求的能力。</blockquote></p><p> And Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to&nbsp;$30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in&nbsp;July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>苹果强劲的基本面预计将帮助该股抵御明年即将加息的不利影响。随着通胀达到近四十年来最热的水平，美联储周三决定将加快缩减每月1200亿美元债券回购计划的步伐，从11月开始的每月150亿美元减少到每月300亿美元。这将有效地结束刺激计划，该计划是在3月份大流行开始时实施的，而不是最初计划的7月份。预计加息将很快开始，以应对不断上涨的物价压力，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔确认，这一过程只有在缩减结束后才会以渐进的速度开始。最新的点阵图显示，从2022年初开始，联邦基金利率有可能从接近零的水平上升三个25个百分点，2023年再上升三个百分点，2024年再上升两个百分点。如果实现，这一过程将在2024年将基金利率提高至2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3ca2d04c1b55a465e12bfae79890e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over&nbsp;faster erosion of value on future gains&nbsp;and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.</p><p><blockquote>虽然加息通常会导致投资者转向规避风险，因为他们担心未来收益的价值会加速侵蚀，以及资本成本上升导致业务增长停滞，尤其是高增长股票，但苹果在美联储发布后上涨了近3%关于政策收紧的最新消息。该股12月15日收于179.30美元，接近周一182美元的峰值。美联储更新后，苹果的上涨以及其他大型科技股的类似上涨趋势推动纳斯达克100指数盘中上涨2.4%，这表明投资者更愿意将资金投资于增长前景强劲的公司以应对即将加息带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> With the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.</p><p><blockquote>随着即将到来的假期对苹果12月季度销售有利，该股估值预计将比预期更早进入3万亿美元区间。苹果整个产品线的持续强劲需求、慷慨的股票回购以及新的尖端产品预计在可预见的未来带来的额外收入贡献也将成为支持公司持续强劲的基本面并保持该股的关键催化剂尽管即将加息，但估值仍高于3万亿美元。考虑到大盘的近期发展和苹果的增长前景，我们将该股12个月目标价上调至209.43美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021财年基本面前景概述和回顾</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年对苹果来说是重要的一年。尽管冠状病毒反复爆发和供应链限制导致商店断断续续关闭，导致销售额损失超过90亿美元，但该公司今年的收入较2020财年增长了33%，达到3660亿美元。每个产品和服务部门都实现了创纪录的收入，比上一年增长了20%以上。本年度的成功主要归功于一系列新产品的推出和功能升级。其中最引人注目的包括支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s系列，以及支持M1的MacBook Pro和iPad Pro。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Products</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p> iPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by&nbsp;attracting switchers&nbsp;from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by&nbsp;strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like&nbsp;Verizon&nbsp;and&nbsp;AT&amp;T&nbsp;have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend&nbsp;more than $700 billion&nbsp;over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone销量今年增长了39%，是其他细分市场中增长最快的，占苹果2021财年收入的一半以上。这一结果与去年移动设备需求下滑形成鲜明对比，当时消费者准备应对大流行带来的经济不确定性。随着全球5G设备升级步伐不断加快，预计未来几年iPhone销量将保持强劲。2022年可能推出的更实惠的支持5G的iPhone SE预计也将通过吸引“超过10亿非高端Android用户”的切换者来进一步提高苹果的市场份额，并将活跃安装基数推向另一个历史新高。在推出支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s后，最近几个季度观察到的iPhone销售模式进一步证实了预期的势头，升级者和转换者的数量以两位数强劲增长。苹果与手机运营商的紧密联系预计也将在未来几年推动iPhone的销售贡献。Verizon和AT&amp;T等美国知名无线运营商已经热衷于促进iPhone 12和iPhone 13等支持5G的设备的销售，以鼓励迁移到他们在全国范围内花费数十亿美元建设的5G网络。预计全球电信公司将在未来五年内斥资超过7000亿美元建设5G网络，这突显出随着运营商推动十年来最强劲的多年升级周期以收回成本，iPhone市场未来将面临巨大的额外增长机会。他们的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Mac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the&nbsp;all-new M1-powered iMac&nbsp;earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the&nbsp;reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro&nbsp;in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped&nbsp;over 3.2 million units&nbsp;of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a&nbsp;$224.3 billion&nbsp;and$600 billion&nbsp;market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.</p><p><blockquote>Mac和iPad的销售额在2021财年也大幅增长，收入分别达到创纪录的352亿美元和319亿美元。继今年早些时候推出全新的M1驱动的iMac后，苹果还在10月份推出了重新设计的M1-Pro/M1-Max驱动的MacBook Pro。定制的M1处理器使最新的MacBook“在游戏之外的几乎所有生产力用例上都比任何基于英特尔的设备都好”。这相应地推动了不同消费者群体对便携式工作站的难以置信的需求，从专业创作者和摄影师到企业用户和学生。据估计，该公司在9月份季度的Mac产品出货量超过320万台，这推动了该部门创纪录的收入，同时将其在全球PC销量中的排名提升至其他供应商中的第四位。在苹果的计算产品中引入M1处理器也增强了其在利用全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑需求激增方面的地位，使该公司能够构建具有创新功能的设备，这些设备可以无缝集成到其周边配件和服务生态系统中，以吸引邻近收入。随着后大流行时代混合工作和学习安排的加速采用，全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑等便携式工作站的需求预计将在未来几年保持高位——预计到2025年，这些行业的市场规模将分别增长到2243亿美元和6000亿美元，这为苹果的Mac和iPad市场带来了有利的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Recent speculations on Apple’s intentions to&nbsp;strengthen its in-house chip development capacity&nbsp;will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.</p><p><blockquote>最近关于苹果打算加强其内部芯片开发能力的猜测可能会在未来几年进一步推进其技术的进步，并吸引对其产品的额外需求。该公司目前正在寻找工程师来增强其在“无线电、射频集成电路和无线片上系统（“SoC”）”以及“用于连接蓝牙和Wi-Fi的半导体”的开发能力。这些发展预计将进一步增强苹果设备之间的无缝集成，并增加其产品和服务生态系统的粘性，使其芯片部门成为该公司“最宝贵的资产”之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>服务业的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the&nbsp;Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a&nbsp;projected value of $61 billion&nbsp;over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the&nbsp;Apple One bundle&nbsp;is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.</p><p><blockquote>在服务方面，强大的用户基础使该部门在2021财年的收入达到创纪录的超过684亿美元，比上一年增长27%。迄今为止，苹果的高利润服务已吸引了超过7.45亿付费用户，比过去五年增长了五倍。苹果在其各种服务平台（从苹果音乐到iCloud存储解决方案）中不断推动基于订阅的商业模式，再加上近年来针对关键消费者趋势的有吸引力的新产品，一直是该公司快速增长的关键驱动力。-扩大利润。为现有服务平台推出的令人兴奋的新附加功能包括苹果音乐的空间音频和无损音频以及苹果音乐语音计划。新的基于订阅的产品预计将进一步扩大苹果对智能手机、笔记本电脑和其他先进家用电子产品在全球使用不断增加所带来的邻近机会的覆盖范围，例如，全球音乐流媒体市场预计将以16%的复合年增长率扩张，预计未来五年价值将达到610亿美元，凸显了苹果音乐的巨大增长空间。苹果最新推出的苹果One捆绑包预计将成为未来几年促进服务部门销售的关键贡献者，吸引新用户为订阅服务付费，如果没有捆绑折扣，他们就不会这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Continued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of&nbsp;more than $400 billion&nbsp;over the next five years. With AAPL hosting&nbsp;one of the largest and most used app stores&nbsp;in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite&nbsp;mounting global regulatory scrutiny&nbsp;over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing&nbsp;legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in&nbsp;delaying App Store changes&nbsp;ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in&nbsp;September&nbsp;as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.</p><p><blockquote>移动应用市场需求的持续增长也将利好苹果快速增长的服务板块。全球移动应用市场预计将以18.4%的CAGR增长，未来五年市值将超过4000亿美元。由于AAPL拥有世界上最大和使用最多的应用商店之一，有理由假设相关收入将以类似的速度增长。尽管全球监管机构对苹果App Store涉嫌违反反垄断的审查越来越多——其中最引人注目的是与Epic Games正在进行的法律斗争——但该公司对确保用户隐私、安全和交易便利性的持续关注可能会挽救局面。根据Morgan Stanley对美国和中国4000名苹果产品用户进行的一项调查，尽管开发者正在争取在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，但大多数用户都表示对苹果应用商店的忠诚度，因为它提供了“安全、隐私和交易便利性的价值”。作为Epic Games提起的长达一年的诉讼的一部分，苹果最近成功推迟了美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers在9月份下令的App Store变更，这是App Store持续强劲的另一个迹象。该公司辩称，法院授权的允许App Store用户“直接从网络上的开发者那里购买”的命令将对他们的隐私安全构成威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by&nbsp;at most $4 billion per year&nbsp;which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.</p><p><blockquote>目前，开发者正在争取让应用用户在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，该生态系统向开发者收取高达所有购买30%的高额佣金。随着苹果继续对该裁决提出上诉，法院关于是否需要实施App Store变更的最终决定可能至少还需要一年时间。但即使做出不利的裁决，即苹果必须允许开发者将用户重定向到其生态系统之外的支付和/或降低其应用内购买佣金率，App Store的收入预计每年最多只会减少40亿美元，这不会对其估值前景产生重大影响。考虑到App Store用户对苹果通过该平台提供的安全性和便利性水平的重视，实际的量化影响甚至可能低于市场预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Catalysts Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来的关键催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a&nbsp;VR headset and AR glasses&nbsp;by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.</p><p><blockquote>由于其庞大的设备安装基础和相关服务平台用户，苹果无疑是将新兴技术带入主流的关键门户。正因为如此，未来几年备受期待的AR/VR耳机和自动驾驶汽车等尖端产品的推出可能会将该股推向新的高度。这家颠覆性消费电子和设备的先驱预计将在2023年初推出VR耳机和AR眼镜，这是一项新兴技术，近几个月来，随着有关元宇宙的讨论越来越多，这项技术的发展势头越来越大。与市场上已有的大多数VR头显类似，苹果的将配备3D显示屏，为从游戏到交流的各种活动提供身临其境的环境。差异化因素将是该公司计划在设备中实现一流的图形芯片，以促进超高分辨率显示。即将推出的VR头显最终将为其AR眼镜奠定基础，苹果预计这将是“更大的机会”。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an&nbsp;$800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.</p><p><blockquote>未来五年，与元宇宙相关的机会预计将发展成为8000亿美元的市场。相关软件和服务销售预计将推动预计潜在市场的70%以上，而其余部分可能由硬件销售推动。这为苹果带来了强劲的推动力，该公司不仅可以通过销售即将推出的AR/VR耳机来利用不断增长的元宇宙机会，还可以利用与相关应用程序、软件和服务平台使用相关的邻近收入。</blockquote></p><p> Speculations on Apple’s ongoing development of&nbsp;a self-driving electric car&nbsp;is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of&nbsp;more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.</p><p><blockquote>对苹果正在开发自动驾驶电动汽车的猜测预计也将在可预见的未来为该股带来有意义的上涨。该公司现在计划到2025年推出新的产品类别，届时全球自动驾驶汽车市场的价值预计将达到2000亿美元以上。最终的汽车可能会向其现有产品组合致敬，例如“类似iPad的触摸屏”信息娱乐系统。在技术方面，据信苹果已经完成了定制芯片的开发，用于为车辆的自动驾驶功能提供动力。据该州DMV称，最新的芯片将很快应用到其现有的改装SUV车队中，以便在加利福尼亚州进行测试，这表明即将推出的芯片即将推出。</blockquote></p><p> While Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by&nbsp;at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果目前的市值可能已经反映了“随着时间的推移，新产品和服务对材料收入的持续贡献”，但上述新产品类别发布的额外上行空间仍然缺失。但随着苹果AR/VR设备即将推出，这种情况可能会在未来12个月内发生变化。对早期AR/VR设备销售的近期预测预计将使苹果的估值至少提高1500亿美元。随着时间的推移，当元宇宙趋势继续获得主流关注时，苹果预计将从AR/VR领域获得超过2000亿美元的年收入，这可能会在其当前市值的基础上再增加15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值前景和即将加息的潜在影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Adjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our&nbsp;most recent analysis&nbsp;on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>调整我们对苹果2021财年年终业绩和12月季度指引的最新预测，我们的基本情况预测预计到2022财年末总净销售额为4393亿美元，到2026财年将进一步增长至6685亿美元。我们预测中应用于各部门收入的增长假设与我们对该股的最新分析基本保持不变，并额外考虑了管理层对供应限制影响和即将加息的近期前景。具体来说，2021财年下半年由于全行业芯片短缺和大流行导致的制造延迟造成的90亿美元收入损失（即6月季度约30亿美元，9月季度约60亿美元）预计将恶化2022财年上半年。尽管供应链挑战有所改善，但对苹果产品的持续强劲需求将导致未来几个季度销量损失更大。尽管如此，苹果仍为未来强劲的基本面做好了准备，这将有助于缓解投资者因即将加息而对估值的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5aa95136cfca6f95b962ea36eadab74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6585b165abd25fab7d171dd944d05156\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（苹果_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。有关所应用的材料增长假设的更多详情，请参阅此处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Drawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，我们将苹果股票的12个月目标价修正为209.43美元。基于12月17日171.14美元的最后交易价格，这意味着超过22%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88e904b5b900fbcdf4541d856570e2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>修订后的价格目标是使用十年离散期内的贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析得出的，并结合前几节中分析的针对苹果近期发展更新的财务预测。与我们最初的估值分析类似，我们采用了8%的WACC来贴现苹果的预计自由现金流。考虑到公司当前的资本结构和强劲的资产负债表，贴现函数反映了公司的风险状况。考虑到苹果现有债务的很大一部分是固定利率票据，预计其增长资本成本不会因即将加息而发生重大变化。该公司还拥有持续强劲的净现金状况，管理层打算在加息之前部署以实现额外增长，而不必产生增量资本成本。预计这将进一步巩固投资者对苹果股票的信心，因为他们在担心利率上升带来的更广泛市场压力的情况下继续“转向优质股票”。</blockquote></p><p> The valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>估值分析还假设退出倍数为19.8倍，这与当前市场对苹果在预测期内增长轨迹的预期一致。考虑到AR/VR设备和自动驾驶汽车等新产品领域即将推出，所应用的退出倍数假设甚至可能在未来12个月内进一步改善，并抵消即将加息的任何潜在影响。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f992ef8b2b59ea879f69a7b1e7ad52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da8b21dae04fd263929ab26bd8d83907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述分析，预计未来两年在当前接近零的联邦基金利率基础上增加175至200个基点，从基本面和估值角度来看，预计不会对苹果的业绩造成重大不利影响。全球对苹果产品和服务的强劲需求，加上新的创新，预计将进一步增强该公司的基本增长前景。因此，这将进一步改善苹果的资产负债表，并进一步增强其抵御更广泛的宏观逆风带来的估值下行压力的地位。事实上，为应对即将加息带来的风险，对优质成长型股票的需求不断增加，甚至可能会推动苹果的估值增长势头。考虑到这些因素，苹果仍然是表现最好的科技股之一，尽管加息即将到来，但其近期仍强劲上涨至3万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: The Strongest Shield Against Rate Hikes<blockquote>苹果股票：抵御加息的最强盾牌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 10:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>With inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.</li>  <li>While rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.</li>  <li>Apple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.</li>  <li>Its strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.</li>  <li>As such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf73ac36a98ce54b343c7e6b613f4d9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>guvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着通胀处于40年来最热的阶段，美联储决定加快刺激缩减时间表，并为最早在3月份加息做准备。</li><li>尽管由于担心估值前景受到侵蚀，加息历来会阻止投资者购买成长型股票，但苹果股票在很大程度上仍保持弹性。</li><li>在对其现有产品的强劲需求以及AR/VR和自动驾驶汽车等新兴技术带来的新机遇的支持下，苹果预计将在未来实现更多增长。</li><li>其强劲的净现金状况也提供了足够的干粉来为未来几年的额外增长提供资金，而不会在利率上升的情况下产生额外的资本成本。</li><li>因此，尽管未来存在更广泛的市场估值风险，但随着苹果估值接近3万亿美元，其看涨论点仍然完好无损。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>guvendemir/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)&nbsp;has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by&nbsp;more than 220x&nbsp;since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.</p><p><blockquote>作为全球表现最好的股票之一，苹果（纳斯达克：AAPL）今年以来涨幅接近40%。该股不久前曾达到182.13美元的峰值，目前距离成为第一家市值达到3万亿美元的美国上市公司还不到7%，仅占以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数的15%左右。自20世纪90年代末以来，苹果的市值增长了220倍以上，这得益于该公司不断抓住对其创新产品和服务组合的强劲需求的能力。</blockquote></p><p> And Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to&nbsp;$30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in&nbsp;July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>苹果强劲的基本面预计将帮助该股抵御明年即将加息的不利影响。随着通胀达到近四十年来最热的水平，美联储周三决定将加快缩减每月1200亿美元债券回购计划的步伐，从11月开始的每月150亿美元减少到每月300亿美元。这将有效地结束刺激计划，该计划是在3月份大流行开始时实施的，而不是最初计划的7月份。预计加息将很快开始，以应对不断上涨的物价压力，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔确认，这一过程只有在缩减结束后才会以渐进的速度开始。最新的点阵图显示，从2022年初开始，联邦基金利率有可能从接近零的水平上升三个25个百分点，2023年再上升三个百分点，2024年再上升两个百分点。如果实现，这一过程将在2024年将基金利率提高至2.1%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ef3ca2d04c1b55a465e12bfae79890e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over&nbsp;faster erosion of value on future gains&nbsp;and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.</p><p><blockquote>虽然加息通常会导致投资者转向规避风险，因为他们担心未来收益的价值会加速侵蚀，以及资本成本上升导致业务增长停滞，尤其是高增长股票，但苹果在美联储发布后上涨了近3%关于政策收紧的最新消息。该股12月15日收于179.30美元，接近周一182美元的峰值。美联储更新后，苹果的上涨以及其他大型科技股的类似上涨趋势推动纳斯达克100指数盘中上涨2.4%，这表明投资者更愿意将资金投资于增长前景强劲的公司以应对即将加息带来的风险。</blockquote></p><p> With the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.</p><p><blockquote>随着即将到来的假期对苹果12月季度销售有利，该股估值预计将比预期更早进入3万亿美元区间。苹果整个产品线的持续强劲需求、慷慨的股票回购以及新的尖端产品预计在可预见的未来带来的额外收入贡献也将成为支持公司持续强劲的基本面并保持该股的关键催化剂尽管即将加息，但估值仍高于3万亿美元。考虑到大盘的近期发展和苹果的增长前景，我们将该股12个月目标价上调至209.43美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>FY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2021财年基本面前景概述和回顾</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Fiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.</p><p><blockquote>2021财年对苹果来说是重要的一年。尽管冠状病毒反复爆发和供应链限制导致商店断断续续关闭，导致销售额损失超过90亿美元，但该公司今年的收入较2020财年增长了33%，达到3660亿美元。每个产品和服务部门都实现了创纪录的收入，比上一年增长了20%以上。本年度的成功主要归功于一系列新产品的推出和功能升级。其中最引人注目的包括支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s系列，以及支持M1的MacBook Pro和iPad Pro。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Products</b></p><p><blockquote><b>产品的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p> iPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by&nbsp;attracting switchers&nbsp;from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by&nbsp;strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like&nbsp;Verizon&nbsp;and&nbsp;AT&amp;T&nbsp;have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend&nbsp;more than $700 billion&nbsp;over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone销量今年增长了39%，是其他细分市场中增长最快的，占苹果2021财年收入的一半以上。这一结果与去年移动设备需求下滑形成鲜明对比，当时消费者准备应对大流行带来的经济不确定性。随着全球5G设备升级步伐不断加快，预计未来几年iPhone销量将保持强劲。2022年可能推出的更实惠的支持5G的iPhone SE预计也将通过吸引“超过10亿非高端Android用户”的切换者来进一步提高苹果的市场份额，并将活跃安装基数推向另一个历史新高。在推出支持5G的iPhone 12s和iPhone 13s后，最近几个季度观察到的iPhone销售模式进一步证实了预期的势头，升级者和转换者的数量以两位数强劲增长。苹果与手机运营商的紧密联系预计也将在未来几年推动iPhone的销售贡献。Verizon和AT&amp;T等美国知名无线运营商已经热衷于促进iPhone 12和iPhone 13等支持5G的设备的销售，以鼓励迁移到他们在全国范围内花费数十亿美元建设的5G网络。预计全球电信公司将在未来五年内斥资超过7000亿美元建设5G网络，这突显出随着运营商推动十年来最强劲的多年升级周期以收回成本，iPhone市场未来将面临巨大的额外增长机会。他们的投资。</blockquote></p><p> Mac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the&nbsp;all-new M1-powered iMac&nbsp;earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the&nbsp;reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro&nbsp;in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped&nbsp;over 3.2 million units&nbsp;of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a&nbsp;$224.3 billion&nbsp;and$600 billion&nbsp;market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.</p><p><blockquote>Mac和iPad的销售额在2021财年也大幅增长，收入分别达到创纪录的352亿美元和319亿美元。继今年早些时候推出全新的M1驱动的iMac后，苹果还在10月份推出了重新设计的M1-Pro/M1-Max驱动的MacBook Pro。定制的M1处理器使最新的MacBook“在游戏之外的几乎所有生产力用例上都比任何基于英特尔的设备都好”。这相应地推动了不同消费者群体对便携式工作站的难以置信的需求，从专业创作者和摄影师到企业用户和学生。据估计，该公司在9月份季度的Mac产品出货量超过320万台，这推动了该部门创纪录的收入，同时将其在全球PC销量中的排名提升至其他供应商中的第四位。在苹果的计算产品中引入M1处理器也增强了其在利用全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑需求激增方面的地位，使该公司能够构建具有创新功能的设备，这些设备可以无缝集成到其周边配件和服务生态系统中，以吸引邻近收入。随着后大流行时代混合工作和学习安排的加速采用，全球对个人电脑和多功能平板电脑等便携式工作站的需求预计将在未来几年保持高位——预计到2025年，这些行业的市场规模将分别增长到2243亿美元和6000亿美元，这为苹果的Mac和iPad市场带来了有利的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Recent speculations on Apple’s intentions to&nbsp;strengthen its in-house chip development capacity&nbsp;will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.</p><p><blockquote>最近关于苹果打算加强其内部芯片开发能力的猜测可能会在未来几年进一步推进其技术的进步，并吸引对其产品的额外需求。该公司目前正在寻找工程师来增强其在“无线电、射频集成电路和无线片上系统（“SoC”）”以及“用于连接蓝牙和Wi-Fi的半导体”的开发能力。这些发展预计将进一步增强苹果设备之间的无缝集成，并增加其产品和服务生态系统的粘性，使其芯片部门成为该公司“最宝贵的资产”之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Developments in Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>服务业的主要发展</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include&nbsp;Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the&nbsp;Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a&nbsp;projected value of $61 billion&nbsp;over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the&nbsp;Apple One bundle&nbsp;is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.</p><p><blockquote>在服务方面，强大的用户基础使该部门在2021财年的收入达到创纪录的超过684亿美元，比上一年增长27%。迄今为止，苹果的高利润服务已吸引了超过7.45亿付费用户，比过去五年增长了五倍。苹果在其各种服务平台（从苹果音乐到iCloud存储解决方案）中不断推动基于订阅的商业模式，再加上近年来针对关键消费者趋势的有吸引力的新产品，一直是该公司快速增长的关键驱动力。-扩大利润。为现有服务平台推出的令人兴奋的新附加功能包括苹果音乐的空间音频和无损音频以及苹果音乐语音计划。新的基于订阅的产品预计将进一步扩大苹果对智能手机、笔记本电脑和其他先进家用电子产品在全球使用不断增加所带来的邻近机会的覆盖范围，例如，全球音乐流媒体市场预计将以16%的复合年增长率扩张，预计未来五年价值将达到610亿美元，凸显了苹果音乐的巨大增长空间。苹果最新推出的苹果One捆绑包预计将成为未来几年促进服务部门销售的关键贡献者，吸引新用户为订阅服务付费，如果没有捆绑折扣，他们就不会这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Continued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of&nbsp;more than $400 billion&nbsp;over the next five years. With AAPL hosting&nbsp;one of the largest and most used app stores&nbsp;in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite&nbsp;mounting global regulatory scrutiny&nbsp;over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing&nbsp;legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in&nbsp;delaying App Store changes&nbsp;ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in&nbsp;September&nbsp;as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.</p><p><blockquote>移动应用市场需求的持续增长也将利好苹果快速增长的服务板块。全球移动应用市场预计将以18.4%的CAGR增长，未来五年市值将超过4000亿美元。由于AAPL拥有世界上最大和使用最多的应用商店之一，有理由假设相关收入将以类似的速度增长。尽管全球监管机构对苹果App Store涉嫌违反反垄断的审查越来越多——其中最引人注目的是与Epic Games正在进行的法律斗争——但该公司对确保用户隐私、安全和交易便利性的持续关注可能会挽救局面。根据Morgan Stanley对美国和中国4000名苹果产品用户进行的一项调查，尽管开发者正在争取在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，但大多数用户都表示对苹果应用商店的忠诚度，因为它提供了“安全、隐私和交易便利性的价值”。作为Epic Games提起的长达一年的诉讼的一部分，苹果最近成功推迟了美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers在9月份下令的App Store变更，这是App Store持续强劲的另一个迹象。该公司辩称，法院授权的允许App Store用户“直接从网络上的开发者那里购买”的命令将对他们的隐私安全构成威胁。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by&nbsp;at most $4 billion per year&nbsp;which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.</p><p><blockquote>目前，开发者正在争取让应用用户在苹果生态系统之外进行交易的权利，该生态系统向开发者收取高达所有购买30%的高额佣金。随着苹果继续对该裁决提出上诉，法院关于是否需要实施App Store变更的最终决定可能至少还需要一年时间。但即使做出不利的裁决，即苹果必须允许开发者将用户重定向到其生态系统之外的支付和/或降低其应用内购买佣金率，App Store的收入预计每年最多只会减少40亿美元，这不会对其估值前景产生重大影响。考虑到App Store用户对苹果通过该平台提供的安全性和便利性水平的重视，实际的量化影响甚至可能低于市场预测。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Catalysts Ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>未来的关键催化剂</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a&nbsp;VR headset and AR glasses&nbsp;by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.</p><p><blockquote>由于其庞大的设备安装基础和相关服务平台用户，苹果无疑是将新兴技术带入主流的关键门户。正因为如此，未来几年备受期待的AR/VR耳机和自动驾驶汽车等尖端产品的推出可能会将该股推向新的高度。这家颠覆性消费电子和设备的先驱预计将在2023年初推出VR耳机和AR眼镜，这是一项新兴技术，近几个月来，随着有关元宇宙的讨论越来越多，这项技术的发展势头越来越大。与市场上已有的大多数VR头显类似，苹果的将配备3D显示屏，为从游戏到交流的各种活动提供身临其境的环境。差异化因素将是该公司计划在设备中实现一流的图形芯片，以促进超高分辨率显示。即将推出的VR头显最终将为其AR眼镜奠定基础，苹果预计这将是“更大的机会”。</blockquote></p><p> Over the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an&nbsp;$800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.</p><p><blockquote>未来五年，与元宇宙相关的机会预计将发展成为8000亿美元的市场。相关软件和服务销售预计将推动预计潜在市场的70%以上，而其余部分可能由硬件销售推动。这为苹果带来了强劲的推动力，该公司不仅可以通过销售即将推出的AR/VR耳机来利用不断增长的元宇宙机会，还可以利用与相关应用程序、软件和服务平台使用相关的邻近收入。</blockquote></p><p> Speculations on Apple’s ongoing development of&nbsp;a self-driving electric car&nbsp;is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of&nbsp;more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.</p><p><blockquote>对苹果正在开发自动驾驶电动汽车的猜测预计也将在可预见的未来为该股带来有意义的上涨。该公司现在计划到2025年推出新的产品类别，届时全球自动驾驶汽车市场的价值预计将达到2000亿美元以上。最终的汽车可能会向其现有产品组合致敬，例如“类似iPad的触摸屏”信息娱乐系统。在技术方面，据信苹果已经完成了定制芯片的开发，用于为车辆的自动驾驶功能提供动力。据该州DMV称，最新的芯片将很快应用到其现有的改装SUV车队中，以便在加利福尼亚州进行测试，这表明即将推出的芯片即将推出。</blockquote></p><p> While Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by&nbsp;at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果目前的市值可能已经反映了“随着时间的推移，新产品和服务对材料收入的持续贡献”，但上述新产品类别发布的额外上行空间仍然缺失。但随着苹果AR/VR设备即将推出，这种情况可能会在未来12个月内发生变化。对早期AR/VR设备销售的近期预测预计将使苹果的估值至少提高1500亿美元。随着时间的推移，当元宇宙趋势继续获得主流关注时，苹果预计将从AR/VR领域获得超过2000亿美元的年收入，这可能会在其当前市值的基础上再增加15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值前景和即将加息的潜在影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Adjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our&nbsp;most recent analysis&nbsp;on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>调整我们对苹果2021财年年终业绩和12月季度指引的最新预测，我们的基本情况预测预计到2022财年末总净销售额为4393亿美元，到2026财年将进一步增长至6685亿美元。我们预测中应用于各部门收入的增长假设与我们对该股的最新分析基本保持不变，并额外考虑了管理层对供应限制影响和即将加息的近期前景。具体来说，2021财年下半年由于全行业芯片短缺和大流行导致的制造延迟造成的90亿美元收入损失（即6月季度约30亿美元，9月季度约60亿美元）预计将恶化2022财年上半年。尽管供应链挑战有所改善，但对苹果产品的持续强劲需求将导致未来几个季度销量损失更大。尽管如此，苹果仍为未来强劲的基本面做好了准备，这将有助于缓解投资者因即将加息而对估值的一些担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5aa95136cfca6f95b962ea36eadab74\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"257\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Financial Projections:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>i.基本情况财务预测：</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6585b165abd25fab7d171dd944d05156\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"316\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部财务预测（苹果_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf）。有关所应用的材料增长假设的更多详情，请参阅此处。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Drawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述考虑，我们将苹果股票的12个月目标价修正为209.43美元。基于12月17日171.14美元的最后交易价格，这意味着超过22%的上涨潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e88e904b5b900fbcdf4541d856570e2d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"230\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>修订后的价格目标是使用十年离散期内的贴现现金流（“DCF”）分析得出的，并结合前几节中分析的针对苹果近期发展更新的财务预测。与我们最初的估值分析类似，我们采用了8%的WACC来贴现苹果的预计自由现金流。考虑到公司当前的资本结构和强劲的资产负债表，贴现函数反映了公司的风险状况。考虑到苹果现有债务的很大一部分是固定利率票据，预计其增长资本成本不会因即将加息而发生重大变化。该公司还拥有持续强劲的净现金状况，管理层打算在加息之前部署以实现额外增长，而不必产生增量资本成本。预计这将进一步巩固投资者对苹果股票的信心，因为他们在担心利率上升带来的更广泛市场压力的情况下继续“转向优质股票”。</blockquote></p><p> The valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>估值分析还假设退出倍数为19.8倍，这与当前市场对苹果在预测期内增长轨迹的预期一致。考虑到AR/VR设备和自动驾驶汽车等新产品领域即将推出，所应用的退出倍数假设甚至可能在未来12个月内进一步改善，并抵消即将加息的任何潜在影响。</blockquote></p><p> <i>i. Base Case Valuation Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>一、基本案例估值分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81f992ef8b2b59ea879f69a7b1e7ad52\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>ii. Sensitivity Analysis:</i></p><p><blockquote><i>二、敏感性分析：</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da8b21dae04fd263929ab26bd8d83907\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自我们的内部估值分析。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Based on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.</p><p><blockquote>基于上述分析，预计未来两年在当前接近零的联邦基金利率基础上增加175至200个基点，从基本面和估值角度来看，预计不会对苹果的业绩造成重大不利影响。全球对苹果产品和服务的强劲需求，加上新的创新，预计将进一步增强该公司的基本增长前景。因此，这将进一步改善苹果的资产负债表，并进一步增强其抵御更广泛的宏观逆风带来的估值下行压力的地位。事实上，为应对即将加息带来的风险，对优质成长型股票的需求不断增加，甚至可能会推动苹果的估值增长势头。考虑到这些因素，苹果仍然是表现最好的科技股之一，尽管加息即将到来，但其近期仍强劲上涨至3万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475887-apple-stock-aapl-strongest-shield-against-rate-hikes\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475887-apple-stock-aapl-strongest-shield-against-rate-hikes","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183475424","content_text":"Summary\n\nWith inflation running its hottest course in 40 years, the Federal Reserve has decided to accelerate the stimulus tapering schedule and prepare for raising interest rates as early as March.\nWhile rate hikes have historically deterred investors from growth stocks due to concerns over eroding valuation prospects, the Apple stock has remained largely resilient.\nApple is expected to realize additional upsides ahead, sustained by robust demand for its existing offerings and new opportunities arising from nascent technologies like AR/VR and autonomous vehicles.\nIts strong net cash position also provides sufficient dry powder to fund additional growth in coming years without incurring additional costs of capital amidst rising interest rates.\nAs such, Apple's bullish thesis remains intact as it approaches a $3 trillion valuation, despite broader market valuation risks ahead.\n\nguvendemir/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nAs one of the world’s best performing stocks, Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL) has gained close to 40% this year. The stock, which last peaked at $182.13 not too long ago, is currently less than 7% from being the first U.S. publicly listed company to reach a $3 trillion market value and single-handedly accounts for about 15% of the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100’s performance. Apple’s market value has grown by more than 220x since the late 1990s, buoyed by the company’s continuous ability to capture robust demand for its innovative portfolio of products and services.\nAnd Apple’s strong fundamentals are expected to help the stock defy adverse impacts from the imminent rate hikes beginning next year. With inflation running at its hottest in almost four decades, the Federal Reserve decided Wednesday that it will increase the pace at which it is dialing back on the $120 billion monthly bond repurchasing program from $15 billion per month, which began in November, to $30 billion per month. This would effectively conclude the stimulus program, put in place at the onset of the pandemic, coming March, rather than in July as initially planned. Rate hikes are expected to begin soon after to counter rising price pressures, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell affirming that the process will only begin after tapering ends and at a gradual pace. The latest dot plot indicates potential for the Federal Fund Rate to lift-off from near-zero beginning early 2022 with three quarter-point increases, plus another three in 2023 and two more in 2024. If materialized, the process would up the funds rate to 2.1% by 2024.\nSource: Bloomberg\nWhile rate hikes typically cause investors to turn risk averse due to concerns over faster erosion of value on future gains and stalled business growth due to rising costs of capital, especially for high-growth stocks, Apple gained close to 3% upon release of the Fed’s update on policy tightening. The stock closed at $179.30 on December 15th, nearing its peak of $182 on Monday. Apple’s rally, along with similar uptrends observed across other mega-cap tech stocks, accordingly drove intra-day gains of 2.4% for the Nasdaq 100 following the Federal Reserve’s update, indicating investors’ preference to park their money in companies with robust growth prospects to counter risks from the impending rate increases.\nWith the coming holiday season a boon for Apple’s December-quarter sales, the stock’s valuation is expected to enter in the $3 trillion territory sooner than expected. Continued robust demand observed across Apple’s entire product line, generous share buy-backs, and additional revenue contributions expected within the foreseeable future resulting from new, cutting-edge products will also be key catalysts to support the company’s persistently strong fundamentals and keep the stock’s valuation above $3 trillion despite the impending rate hikes. Considering recent developments to the broader market and Apple’s growth prospects, we are raising our 12-month price target for the stock to $209.43.\nFY 2021 Overview and Recap of Fundamental Prospects\nFiscal 2021 was a big year for Apple. The company’s revenues for the year grew 33% from fiscal 2020 to $366 billion, despite on-and-off store closures resulting from recurring coronavirus outbreaks and supply chain constraints that have led to more than $9 billion in lost sales. Every product and service segment achieved record-setting revenues with more than 20% growth from previous year results. Much of the year’s success were attributable to a series of new product launches and feature upgrades. The most notable of which included the 5G-enabled family of iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, as well as the M1-powered MacBook Pro and iPad Pro.\nKey Developments in Products\niPhone sales grew by 39% this year, the most amongst other segments, and drove more than half of Apple’s fiscal 2021 revenues. The results were a stark contrast to last year’s slump in demand for the mobile device when consumers braced for pandemic-driven economic uncertainties. iPhone sales are expected to remain robust in coming years as global 5G device upgrades continue to gather pace. The likely launch of a more affordable 5G-enabled iPhone SE in 2022 is also expected to further Apple’s market share gains by attracting switchers from “more than a billion non-premium Android users”, and drive the active installed base to another all-time high. The anticipated momentum is further corroborated by iPhone sales patterns observed in recent quarters following the launch of 5G-enabled iPhone 12s and iPhone 13s, where the number of upgraders and switchers grew by strong double digits. Apple’s strong ties with cell-phone carriers is also expected to drive meaningful iPhone sales contributions in coming years. Reputable wireless carriers in the U.S. like Verizon and AT&T have already been keen on promoting the sale of 5G-enabled devices like the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 to encourage migration to the 5G network that they have spent billions of dollars on building across the nation. Telecom companies around the world are expected to spend more than $700 billion over the next five years on building-out the 5G network, underscoring significant additional growth opportunities ahead for the iPhone segment as carriers push for the strongest multiyear upgrade cycle in a decade to recoup their investments.\nMac and iPad sales also grew significantly in fiscal 2021, reaching record revenues of $35.2 billion and $31.9 billion, respectively. Following the introduction of the all-new M1-powered iMac earlier this year, Apple also unveiled the reimagined M1-Pro / M1-Max powered MacBook Pro in October. The custom M1 processors made the newest MacBook “better than any Intel-based device for nearly every productivity use case outside of gaming”. This accordingly drove incredible demand for the portable workstation from a diverse group of consumers, ranging from professional creators and photographers to corporate users and students. The company is estimated to have shipped over 3.2 million units of Mac products during the September quarter, which drove record-setting revenues for the segment, while boosting its rank in global PC sales to fourth place amongst other vendors. The introduction of M1-processors in Apple’s computing products also bolstered its position in capitalizing on the surge in global demand for PCs and multi-purpose tablets by allowing the company to build devices with innovative features that can be seamlessly integrated across its ecosystem of peripheral accessories and services to draw adjacent revenues. With accelerated adoption of hybrid work and study arrangements in the post-pandemic era, global demand for portable workstations like PCs and multi-purpose tablets are expected to remain elevated in coming years – the sectors are expected to grow into a $224.3 billion and$600 billion market, respectively, by 2025, which makes favorable trends for Apple’s Mac and iPad segments.\nRecent speculations on Apple’s intentions to strengthen its in-house chip development capacity will likely further the advancement of its technologies offered in coming years and draw additional demand to its products. The company is currently looking for engineers to build-out its capacity in the development of “wireless radios, radio-frequency integrated circuits, and a wireless system-on-chip (“SoC”)”, as well as “semiconductors for connecting Bluetooth and Wi-Fi”. These developments are expected to further enhance seamless integration across Apple’s devices and increase stickiness to its ecosystem of product and service offerings, making its chip unit one of the company’s “most prized assets”.\nKey Developments in Services\nOn the services front, a strong subscriber base had enabled the segment to hit record-setting revenues of more than $68.4 billion in fiscal 2021, up 27% from the prior year. To date, Apple has garnered more than 745 million paid subscribers across its high-margin service offerings, representing a five-fold increase over the last five years. Apple’s increasing push for a subscription-based business model across its wide variety of service platforms, ranging from Apple Music to iCloud storage solutions, paired with attractive new offerings that address key consumer trends in recent years have been a key driver to the company’s fast-expanding margins. New exciting add-on features introduced for existing service platforms include Spatial Audio and Lossless Audiofor Apple Music and the Apple Music Voice Plan. The new subscription-based offerings are expected to further Apple’s reach to adjacent opportunities stemming from increasing global usage of smartphones, laptops and other advanced home electronic products – for instance, the global music streaming market is expected to expand at a CAGR of 16% towards a projected value of $61 billion over the next five years, underscoring significant growth headroom for Apple Music. And Apple’s latest introduction of the Apple One bundle is expected to be a key contributor to furthering service segment sales in coming years by attracting new users to pay for subscription services that they otherwise would not have had it not been for the bundle discounts.\nContinued growth in market demand for mobile applications will also be a boon to Apple’s fast-growing services segment. The global market for mobile applications is expected to grow at a CAGR of 18.4% and reach a market value of more than $400 billion over the next five years. With AAPL hosting one of the largest and most used app stores in the world, it would be reasonable to assume that related revenues would grow at a similar pace. Despite mounting global regulatory scrutiny over Apple’s alleged antitrust violations with its App Store – the most notable of which stemming from an ongoing legal battle with Epic Games– the company’s continued focus on ensuring user privacy, security, and ease of transactions might have saved the day. According to a survey of 4,000 Apple product users performed by Morgan Stanley across the U.S. and China, most have indicated loyalty to Apple’s App store due to the “value of security, privacy and ease of transactions” provided, despite developers pushing for rights to transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem. Apple’s recent success in delaying App Store changes ordered by U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers in September as part of a year-long lawsuit brought against by Epic Games is another sign of the App Store’s continued strength. The company has argued that the court-mandated order to allow App Store users to “buy directly from developers on the web” would be a threat to the security of their privacy.\nCurrently, developers are fighting for their rights to have app users transact outside of Apple’s ecosystem, which charges developers a hefty commission fee of up to 30% on all purchases. As Apple continues with its appeal of the ruling, the ultimate court decision on whether App Store changes would need to be implemented could take at least another year. But even with an unfavorable ruling, where Apple would have to allow developers to redirect users to payments outside of its ecosystem and/or lower its in-app purchase commission rate, App Store revenues are only expected to decrease by at most $4 billion per year which will not place a material impact on its valuation prospects. The actual quantified impact might even be less than what the market has forecasted, considering the value that App Store users have ascribed to the level of security and convenience that Apple has offered through the platform.\nKey Catalysts Ahead\nApple is undoubtedly a key gateway to bringing emerging technologies to the mainstream due to its massive installed base of devices and related service platform users. And because of this, the highly anticipated launch of cutting-edge products like AR/VR headsets and autonomous vehicles in coming years will likely catapult the stock to new heights. The pioneer of disruptive consumer electronics and devices is expected to launch a VR headset and AR glasses by early 2023, a nascent technology that has been picking up steam in recent months with increasing talks of the metaverse. Similar to most VR headsets already available in the market, Apple’s will feature a 3D display to enable an immersive environment for a variety of activities from gaming to communicating. The differentiating factor will be the company’s plans to implement best-in-class graphics chips in the device to facilitate ultra-high-resolution displays. The impending VR headset will ultimately lay the foundation for its AR glasses, which Apple expects to be the “larger opportunity”.\nOver the next five years, opportunities pertaining to the metaverse are expected to blossom into an $800 billion market. Related software and service sales are expected to drive more than 70% of the projected addressable market, while the remainder will likely be driven by hardware sales. This makes strong tailwinds for Apple, which does not only stand to capitalize on growing metaverse opportunities through the sale of its impending AR/VR headset, but also adjacent revenues pertaining to the usage of related apps, software and service platforms.\nSpeculations on Apple’s ongoing development of a self-driving electric car is also expected to materialize into meaningful upsides for the stock within the foreseeable future. The company is now planning to launch the new product category by 2025, at which time the global autonomous vehicle market is expected to reach a value of more than $200 billion. The eventual car will likely feature homages to its existing product portfolio, like an “iPad-like touch screen” infotainment system. And on the technology front, Apple is believed to have completed the development of a custom silicon for powering the vehicle’s autonomous driving capabilities. The newest chips will soon be implemented into its existing fleet of retrofitted SUVs for testing in California according to the state’s DMV, a sign that the impending launch is near.\nWhile Apple’s current market value may already be reflective of “consistent material revenue contributions from new products and services over time”, additional upsides from the above-mentioned new product category launches are still missing. But this will likely change within the next 12 months as the impending launch of an Apple AR/VR device draws near. Near-term projections on early AR/VR device sales are expected to boost Apple’s valuation by at least $150 billion. And over time when metaverse trends continue to gain mainstream traction, Apple is expected to generate more than $200 billion in annual revenues from the AR/VR segment, which could add another 15% on top of its current market value.\nValuation Prospects and Potential Impacts from the Impending Rate Increases\nAdjusting our most recent forecast for Apple’s fiscal 2021 year-end results and December-quarter guidance, our base case projection estimates total net sales of $439.3 billion by the end of fiscal 2022, with further growth towards $668.5 billion by fiscal 2026. The growth assumptions applied across segment revenues in our forecast remains largely unchanged from our most recent analysis on the stock, with additional consideration for management’s near-term outlook on supply constraint impacts and the impending rate hikes. Specifically, lost revenues of $9 billion (i.e. approximately $3 billion during June-quarter and $6 billion during September-quarter) attributable to industry-wide chip shortages and pandemic-driven manufacturing delays during the second half of fiscal 2021 is expected to worsen into the first half of fiscal 2022. While there have been observed improvements to supply chain challenges, continuously robust demand for Apple products is what will drive a higher volume of lost sales in coming quarters. Nonetheless, Apple remains well-positioned for strong fundamentals ahead, which will help to alleviate some of investors’ concerns on valuation due to impending rate hikes.\n\ni. Base Case Financial Projections:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal financial forecast (Apple_-_Forecasted_Financial_Information.pdf). Please refer here for further detail on material growth assumptions applied.\nDrawing on the above considerations, our 12-month price target for the Apple stock has been revised to $209.43. This represents upside potential of more than 22% based on the last traded price of $171.14 on December 17th.\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nThe revised price target is derived using a discounted cash flow (“DCF”) analysis over a ten-year discrete period in conjunction with the financial projections updated for Apple’s recent developments as analyzed in earlier sections. Similar to our original valuation analysis, we have applied a WACC of 8% to discount Apple’s projected free cash flows. The discount function is reflective of the company’s risk profile, taking into consideration its current capital structure and strong balance sheet. Apple’s cost of capital for growth is not expected to change significantly as a result of the impending rate hikes, considering a large portion of its existing debt are fixed-rate notes. The company also boasts a consistently robust net cash position, in which management intends to deploy towards additional growth without having to incur incremental capital costs ahead of interest rate increases. This is expected to further cement investors’ confidence in the Apple stock, as they continue their “flight to quality” amidst fear of broader market pressure from rising interest rates.\nThe valuation analysis also assumes an exit multiple of 19.8x, which is consistent with current market expectations on Apple’s growth trajectory over the forecasted period. The applied exit multiple assumption could even improve further within the next 12 months, considering the impending launch of new product segments like AR/VR devices and autonomous vehicles, and offset any potential impacts from the upcoming increases to interest rates.\ni. Base Case Valuation Analysis:\n\nii. Sensitivity Analysis:\nSource: Author, with data from our internal valuation analysis.\nConclusion\nBased on the foregoing analysis, the anticipated addition of 175 to 200 basis points to the current near-zero Federal Fund Rate over the next two years is not expected to cause material adverse impacts to Apple’s performance from both a fundamental and valuation perspective. Robust global demand for Apple products and services, paired with new innovations are expected to further bolster the company’s fundamental growth prospects. This would accordingly bring additional improvements to Apple’s balance sheet, and further strengthen its position against downward valuation pressures from broader macro headwinds. In fact, increasing demand for quality growth stocks to counter risks resulting from the impending rate hikes might even fuel Apple’s valuation growth momentum. On these considerations, Apple remains one of the best-performing tech stocks to own given its robust uptrend to $3 trillion in the near-term despite impending rate hikes.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699452604,"gmtCreate":1639881252850,"gmtModify":1639881253023,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699452604","repostId":"2192903795","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699146721,"gmtCreate":1639759412724,"gmtModify":1639759412870,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$$$","listText":"$$$","text":"$$$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699146721","repostId":"2192597562","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690662539,"gmtCreate":1639664886612,"gmtModify":1639664886760,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690662539","repostId":"2191437029","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":888,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690660997,"gmtCreate":1639664334120,"gmtModify":1639664468696,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool&nbsp;","listText":"Cool&nbsp;","text":"Cool","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690660997","repostId":"1121295991","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121295991","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639664163,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121295991?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 22:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why analysts love Apple right now<blockquote>为什么分析师现在喜欢苹果</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121295991","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"Apple’s  market capitalization is once again closing in on $3 trillion. If and when it hits the mark, which will require shares to reach $182.86, Apple will be in historic territory. And analysts are loving it.This month alone, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley, Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan, and Amit Daryanani of Evercore ISI have raised their price targets on the stock to $200. And on Tuesday BofA Global Research’s Wamsi Mohan upgraded the stock from neutral to buy and raised his price target for ","content":"<p>Apple’s (AAPL) market capitalization is once again closing in on $3 trillion. If and when it hits the mark, which will require shares to reach $182.86, Apple will be in historic territory. And analysts are loving it.</p><p><blockquote>苹果(AAPL)的市值再次逼近3万亿美元。如果达到要求股价达到182.86美元的目标，苹果将处于历史高位。分析师们很喜欢它。</blockquote></p><p> This month alone, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley, Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan, and Amit Daryanani of Evercore ISI have raised their price targets on the stock to $200. And on Tuesday BofA Global Research’s Wamsi Mohan upgraded the stock from neutral to buy and raised his price target for shares to $210.</p><p><blockquote>仅本月，摩根士丹利的Katy Huberty、摩根大通的Samik Chatterjee和Evercore ISI的Amit Daryanani就将该股目标价上调至200美元。周二，美国银行全球研究部的瓦姆西·莫汉(Wamsi Mohan)将该股评级从中性上调至买入，并将股价目标上调至210美元。</blockquote></p><p> Several factors are spurring analysts to fawn over Apple: Optimism for Apple’s iPhone, its coming products including its rumored AR/VR headset, and the company’s ability to suck in consumers and keep them there through its services business.</p><p><blockquote>有几个因素促使分析师奉承苹果：对苹果iPhone的乐观情绪、其即将推出的产品（包括传闻中的AR/VR耳机），以及该公司通过其服务业务吸引消费者并将他们留在那里的能力。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect Apple to introduce an augmented reality/virtual reality (AR/VR) headset, either by the end of 2022 or early 2023,” Mohan wrote in a recent analyst note. “We view this technology as a game-changer as it will enable many new applications which will require high performance hardware and higher access speeds.”</p><p><blockquote>Mohan在最近的一份分析师报告中写道：“我们预计苹果将在2022年底或2023年初推出增强现实/虚拟现实（AR/VR）耳机。”“我们认为这项技术改变了游戏规则，因为它将支持许多需要高性能硬件和更高访问速度的新应用程序。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s AR/VR headset,according to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, could cost upwards of $3,000 and be geared to gaming, entertainment, and communications. The headset has been rumored for some time, with Apple filing various patents related to the technology.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社的Mark Gurman称，苹果的AR/VR耳机价格可能超过3000美元，适用于游戏、娱乐和通信。这款耳机的传闻已经有一段时间了，苹果申请了与该技术相关的各种专利。</blockquote></p><p> “I think what a number of people and investors are thinking about is, ‘Hey, if they move to the glasses, the AR and VR glasses that a lot of people expect to see in '22, that's another opportunity to really build on this incredible ecosystem of device owners, and iOS, and Mac OS holders that really love their devices,’ ” TECHnalysis Research president Bob O’Donnell told Yahoo Finance Live.</p><p><blockquote>“我认为许多人和投资者正在考虑的是，‘嘿，如果他们转向眼镜，很多人期望在22年看到的AR和VR眼镜，这是另一个真正建立在这个基础上的机会TECHnalysis Research总裁Bob O’Donnell告诉雅虎财经直播。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s Services business, which includes its App Store, is one of the major sticking points the company has going for it. After all, if you own an iPhone, you’re going to buy apps, and when it’s time to get a new phone you’ll likely buy another iPhone to keep those apps.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的服务业务（包括其应用商店）是该公司发展的主要症结之一。毕竟，如果你有一部iPhone，你就会购买应用程序，当需要买一部新手机时，你可能会购买另一部iPhone来保留这些应用程序。</blockquote></p><p> The same idea would apply to the company’s AR/VR headset if Apple can wrangle the kind of third-party developer support it already enjoys on the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果能够争取到它在iPhone上已经享有的第三方开发者支持，同样的想法也适用于该公司的AR/VR耳机。</blockquote></p><p> “We see the potential for more Services monetization relative to iPad as use cases develop beyond gaming and remote servicing and evolve into a whole new way in which the world digitally interacts, which AR/VR experts we've spoken with view as the long-term killer AR/VR application,” Huberty wrote in a Dec. 7 analyst note.</p><p><blockquote>“随着用例超越游戏和远程服务的发展，并演变成一种全新的世界数字交互方式，我们看到了相对于iPad更多服务货币化的潜力，我们采访过的AR/VR专家将其视为长期杀手AR/VR应用，”Huberty在12月7日的分析师报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, Apple’s iPhone is still the major driver of Apple’s revenue. And despite the supply chain problems that have upended nearly every industry around the world, Apple seems to be coming out of the crunch.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果的iPhone仍然是苹果营收的主要驱动力。尽管供应链问题颠覆了全球几乎所有行业，但苹果似乎正在走出困境。</blockquote></p><p> “Our checks indicate iPhone production is surprising to the upside as Apple hasn't experienced the same level of manufacturing disruptions as in the September quarter,” Huberty wrote. “While upward trending COVID cases are worth monitoring given they could create new production bottlenecks, we view supply upside as a driver of better December quarter iPhone results.”</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂写道：“我们的检查表明，iPhone产量的增长令人惊讶，因为苹果并未经历与9月份季度相同程度的制造中断。”“虽然呈上升趋势的新冠病例值得监控，因为它们可能会造成新的生产瓶颈，但我们认为供应上升是iPhone 12月季度业绩更好的驱动因素。”</blockquote></p><p> Taken together, it’s clear analysts believe Apple’s new headset and related apps and services business, not to mention the iPhone, will serve as the catalysts that will not only push Apple over the $3 trillion mark, but send the company’s stock even higher.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，分析师显然认为苹果的新耳机以及相关应用和服务业务（更不用说iPhone）将成为催化剂，不仅将推动苹果突破3万亿美元大关，还将推动该公司股价进一步走高。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple's rise is testament to its strong business model,” Santosh Rao, Manhattan Venture Partners’ head of research, told Yahoo Finance Live. “It's an amazing story.”</p><p><blockquote>Manhattan Venture Partners研究主管Santosh Rao告诉雅虎财经直播：“苹果的崛起证明了其强大的商业模式。”“这是一个惊人的故事。”</blockquote></p><p> “We have the cars coming up down the road, the 5G refresh, and so many other things, the services business, of course, is very strong,” he said. “So overall combined, this is a company that's well situated.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们有汽车上路、5G更新以及许多其他事情，当然，服务业务非常强劲，”他说。“所以总的来说，这是一家处于有利地位的公司。”</blockquote></p><p> Now Apple just has to prove the analysts’ optimism correct.</p><p><blockquote>现在苹果只需要证明分析师的乐观是正确的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy analysts love Apple right now<blockquote>为什么分析师现在喜欢苹果</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-16 22:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple’s (AAPL) market capitalization is once again closing in on $3 trillion. If and when it hits the mark, which will require shares to reach $182.86, Apple will be in historic territory. And analysts are loving it.</p><p><blockquote>苹果(AAPL)的市值再次逼近3万亿美元。如果达到要求股价达到182.86美元的目标，苹果将处于历史高位。分析师们很喜欢它。</blockquote></p><p> This month alone, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley, Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan, and Amit Daryanani of Evercore ISI have raised their price targets on the stock to $200. And on Tuesday BofA Global Research’s Wamsi Mohan upgraded the stock from neutral to buy and raised his price target for shares to $210.</p><p><blockquote>仅本月，摩根士丹利的Katy Huberty、摩根大通的Samik Chatterjee和Evercore ISI的Amit Daryanani就将该股目标价上调至200美元。周二，美国银行全球研究部的瓦姆西·莫汉(Wamsi Mohan)将该股评级从中性上调至买入，并将股价目标上调至210美元。</blockquote></p><p> Several factors are spurring analysts to fawn over Apple: Optimism for Apple’s iPhone, its coming products including its rumored AR/VR headset, and the company’s ability to suck in consumers and keep them there through its services business.</p><p><blockquote>有几个因素促使分析师奉承苹果：对苹果iPhone的乐观情绪、其即将推出的产品（包括传闻中的AR/VR耳机），以及该公司通过其服务业务吸引消费者并将他们留在那里的能力。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect Apple to introduce an augmented reality/virtual reality (AR/VR) headset, either by the end of 2022 or early 2023,” Mohan wrote in a recent analyst note. “We view this technology as a game-changer as it will enable many new applications which will require high performance hardware and higher access speeds.”</p><p><blockquote>Mohan在最近的一份分析师报告中写道：“我们预计苹果将在2022年底或2023年初推出增强现实/虚拟现实（AR/VR）耳机。”“我们认为这项技术改变了游戏规则，因为它将支持许多需要高性能硬件和更高访问速度的新应用程序。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s AR/VR headset,according to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, could cost upwards of $3,000 and be geared to gaming, entertainment, and communications. The headset has been rumored for some time, with Apple filing various patents related to the technology.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社的Mark Gurman称，苹果的AR/VR耳机价格可能超过3000美元，适用于游戏、娱乐和通信。这款耳机的传闻已经有一段时间了，苹果申请了与该技术相关的各种专利。</blockquote></p><p> “I think what a number of people and investors are thinking about is, ‘Hey, if they move to the glasses, the AR and VR glasses that a lot of people expect to see in '22, that's another opportunity to really build on this incredible ecosystem of device owners, and iOS, and Mac OS holders that really love their devices,’ ” TECHnalysis Research president Bob O’Donnell told Yahoo Finance Live.</p><p><blockquote>“我认为许多人和投资者正在考虑的是，‘嘿，如果他们转向眼镜，很多人期望在22年看到的AR和VR眼镜，这是另一个真正建立在这个基础上的机会TECHnalysis Research总裁Bob O’Donnell告诉雅虎财经直播。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s Services business, which includes its App Store, is one of the major sticking points the company has going for it. After all, if you own an iPhone, you’re going to buy apps, and when it’s time to get a new phone you’ll likely buy another iPhone to keep those apps.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的服务业务（包括其应用商店）是该公司发展的主要症结之一。毕竟，如果你有一部iPhone，你就会购买应用程序，当需要买一部新手机时，你可能会购买另一部iPhone来保留这些应用程序。</blockquote></p><p> The same idea would apply to the company’s AR/VR headset if Apple can wrangle the kind of third-party developer support it already enjoys on the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>如果苹果能够争取到它在iPhone上已经享有的第三方开发者支持，同样的想法也适用于该公司的AR/VR耳机。</blockquote></p><p> “We see the potential for more Services monetization relative to iPad as use cases develop beyond gaming and remote servicing and evolve into a whole new way in which the world digitally interacts, which AR/VR experts we've spoken with view as the long-term killer AR/VR application,” Huberty wrote in a Dec. 7 analyst note.</p><p><blockquote>“随着用例超越游戏和远程服务的发展，并演变成一种全新的世界数字交互方式，我们看到了相对于iPad更多服务货币化的潜力，我们采访过的AR/VR专家将其视为长期杀手AR/VR应用，”Huberty在12月7日的分析师报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> Of course, Apple’s iPhone is still the major driver of Apple’s revenue. And despite the supply chain problems that have upended nearly every industry around the world, Apple seems to be coming out of the crunch.</p><p><blockquote>当然，苹果的iPhone仍然是苹果营收的主要驱动力。尽管供应链问题颠覆了全球几乎所有行业，但苹果似乎正在走出困境。</blockquote></p><p> “Our checks indicate iPhone production is surprising to the upside as Apple hasn't experienced the same level of manufacturing disruptions as in the September quarter,” Huberty wrote. “While upward trending COVID cases are worth monitoring given they could create new production bottlenecks, we view supply upside as a driver of better December quarter iPhone results.”</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂写道：“我们的检查表明，iPhone产量的增长令人惊讶，因为苹果并未经历与9月份季度相同程度的制造中断。”“虽然呈上升趋势的新冠病例值得监控，因为它们可能会造成新的生产瓶颈，但我们认为供应上升是iPhone 12月季度业绩更好的驱动因素。”</blockquote></p><p> Taken together, it’s clear analysts believe Apple’s new headset and related apps and services business, not to mention the iPhone, will serve as the catalysts that will not only push Apple over the $3 trillion mark, but send the company’s stock even higher.</p><p><blockquote>综上所述，分析师显然认为苹果的新耳机以及相关应用和服务业务（更不用说iPhone）将成为催化剂，不仅将推动苹果突破3万亿美元大关，还将推动该公司股价进一步走高。</blockquote></p><p> “Apple's rise is testament to its strong business model,” Santosh Rao, Manhattan Venture Partners’ head of research, told Yahoo Finance Live. “It's an amazing story.”</p><p><blockquote>Manhattan Venture Partners研究主管Santosh Rao告诉雅虎财经直播：“苹果的崛起证明了其强大的商业模式。”“这是一个惊人的故事。”</blockquote></p><p> “We have the cars coming up down the road, the 5G refresh, and so many other things, the services business, of course, is very strong,” he said. “So overall combined, this is a company that's well situated.”</p><p><blockquote>“我们有汽车上路、5G更新以及许多其他事情，当然，服务业务非常强劲，”他说。“所以总的来说，这是一家处于有利地位的公司。”</blockquote></p><p> Now Apple just has to prove the analysts’ optimism correct.</p><p><blockquote>现在苹果只需要证明分析师的乐观是正确的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-analysts-love-apple-right-now-140655190.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-analysts-love-apple-right-now-140655190.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121295991","content_text":"Apple’s (AAPL) market capitalization is once again closing in on $3 trillion. If and when it hits the mark, which will require shares to reach $182.86, Apple will be in historic territory. And analysts are loving it.\nThis month alone, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley, Samik Chatterjee of JPMorgan, and Amit Daryanani of Evercore ISI have raised their price targets on the stock to $200. And on Tuesday BofA Global Research’s Wamsi Mohan upgraded the stock from neutral to buy and raised his price target for shares to $210.\nSeveral factors are spurring analysts to fawn over Apple: Optimism for Apple’s iPhone, its coming products including its rumored AR/VR headset, and the company’s ability to suck in consumers and keep them there through its services business.\n“We expect Apple to introduce an augmented reality/virtual reality (AR/VR) headset, either by the end of 2022 or early 2023,” Mohan wrote in a recent analyst note. “We view this technology as a game-changer as it will enable many new applications which will require high performance hardware and higher access speeds.”\nApple’s AR/VR headset,according to Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman, could cost upwards of $3,000 and be geared to gaming, entertainment, and communications. The headset has been rumored for some time, with Apple filing various patents related to the technology.\n“I think what a number of people and investors are thinking about is, ‘Hey, if they move to the glasses, the AR and VR glasses that a lot of people expect to see in '22, that's another opportunity to really build on this incredible ecosystem of device owners, and iOS, and Mac OS holders that really love their devices,’ ” TECHnalysis Research president Bob O’Donnell told Yahoo Finance Live.\nApple’s Services business, which includes its App Store, is one of the major sticking points the company has going for it. After all, if you own an iPhone, you’re going to buy apps, and when it’s time to get a new phone you’ll likely buy another iPhone to keep those apps.\nThe same idea would apply to the company’s AR/VR headset if Apple can wrangle the kind of third-party developer support it already enjoys on the iPhone.\n“We see the potential for more Services monetization relative to iPad as use cases develop beyond gaming and remote servicing and evolve into a whole new way in which the world digitally interacts, which AR/VR experts we've spoken with view as the long-term killer AR/VR application,” Huberty wrote in a Dec. 7 analyst note.\nOf course, Apple’s iPhone is still the major driver of Apple’s revenue. And despite the supply chain problems that have upended nearly every industry around the world, Apple seems to be coming out of the crunch.\n“Our checks indicate iPhone production is surprising to the upside as Apple hasn't experienced the same level of manufacturing disruptions as in the September quarter,” Huberty wrote. “While upward trending COVID cases are worth monitoring given they could create new production bottlenecks, we view supply upside as a driver of better December quarter iPhone results.”\nTaken together, it’s clear analysts believe Apple’s new headset and related apps and services business, not to mention the iPhone, will serve as the catalysts that will not only push Apple over the $3 trillion mark, but send the company’s stock even higher.\n“Apple's rise is testament to its strong business model,” Santosh Rao, Manhattan Venture Partners’ head of research, told Yahoo Finance Live. “It's an amazing story.”\n“We have the cars coming up down the road, the 5G refresh, and so many other things, the services business, of course, is very strong,” he said. “So overall combined, this is a company that's well situated.”\nNow Apple just has to prove the analysts’ optimism correct.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":790,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690685873,"gmtCreate":1639664155118,"gmtModify":1639664171039,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690685873","repostId":"1142996286","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142996286","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639659703,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142996286?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 21:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142996286","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock-index futures advanced Thursday morning after the market staged a U-turn the previous trading session, welcoming a Federal Reserve decision to ramp up the pace of its taper and leave interest rates unchanged — for now.$Delta Air Lines$ – Delta rose 2.3% in the premarket after projecting a $200 million fourth-quarter profit. Consensus forecasts were predicting a quarterly loss for Delta, but the carrier said it is seeing strong holiday demand and it is on the path toward exceeding pre-","content":"<p>U.S.&nbsp;stock-index futures advanced Thursday morning after&nbsp;the market staged a U-turn&nbsp;the previous trading session, welcoming a Federal Reserve decision to ramp up the pace of its taper and leave interest rates unchanged — for now.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周四上午上涨，此前市场在前一交易日出现180度大转弯，欢迎美联储决定加快缩减规模并暂时维持利率不变。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 204 points, or 0.57%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 31.25 points, or 0.66%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 115.25 points, or 0.71%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e8a71c62338c2a045263d40bb9c86e4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"368\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the Fed giving markets a breather Wednesday, traders will turn their Thursday to&nbsp;fresh Labor Department data on initial weekly jobless claims. First-time unemployment filings are expected to reflect a slight increase after&nbsp;last’s 52-week low.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:00，道指e-mini上涨204点，涨幅0.57%，标普500 e-mini上涨31.25点，涨幅0.66%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨115.25点，涨幅0.71%。随着美联储周三给市场喘息的机会，交易员将在周四转向劳工部关于每周首次申请失业救济人数的最新数据。首次申请失业救济人数预计将在去年创下52周低点后小幅上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: </b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a></b> – Delta rose 2.3% in the premarket after projecting a $200 million fourth-quarter profit. Consensus forecasts were predicting a quarterly loss for Delta, but the carrier said it is seeing strong holiday demand and it is on the path toward exceeding pre-pandemic profit levels.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a></b>-达美航空预计第四季度利润为2亿美元，盘前上涨2.3%。市场普遍预测达美航空将出现季度亏损，但该航空公司表示，假期需求强劲，利润有望超过大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACN\">Accenture PLC</a></b> – The consulting firm’s shares surged 6.7% in the premarket after it reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter, and raised its earnings guidance for fiscal 2022. Revenue rose by more than 20% across the four biggest industry groups in Accenture’s customer base.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACN\">埃森哲公司</a></b>-该咨询公司公布最新季度利润和收入好于预期，并上调2022财年盈利指引后，其股价盘前飙升6.7%。埃森哲客户群中四个最大行业集团的收入增长了20%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGN\">Regeneron Pharmaceuticals</a></b> – The drugmaker’s shares declined 1% in premarket trading after it said its antibody cocktail loses potency against the omicron Covid-19 variant. Regeneron did say that the cocktail is effective against the delta variant.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGN\">再生元制药</a></b>-该制药商表示其抗体鸡尾酒对奥密克戎Covid-19变种失去效力后，其股价在盘前交易中下跌1%。再生元确实说过这种鸡尾酒对德尔塔变异毒株有效。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEN\">Lennar</a></b> – Lennar reported quarterly earnings of $3.91 per share, below the $4.15 consensus estimate, and the homebuilder’s revenue also fell short of forecasts. Lennar was hurt by higher lumber costs as well as increased labor costs and shortages of raw materials, resulting in delayed home deliveries. Lennar tumbled 6.3% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEN\">伦纳尔</a></b>-Lennar公布的季度收益为每股3.91美元，低于市场普遍预期的4.15美元，该住宅建筑商的收入也低于预期。Lennar受到木材成本上涨、劳动力成本增加和原材料短缺的影响，导致送货上门延迟。Lennar在盘前下跌6.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVS\">Novartis AG</a></b> – Novartis launched a new share buyback program worth up to $15 billion, with the drug maker planning to complete those repurchases by the end of 2023. Shares jumped 4% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVS\">诺华公司</a></b>-诺华启动了一项价值高达150亿美元的新股票回购计划，该制药商计划在2023年底前完成这些回购。股价在盘前交易中上涨4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a>&nbsp;</b>– <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a> rose 1.1% in the premarket after announcing that it added $12 billion to its share buyback program, bringing the total amount of its repurchase authority to $13.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">签证</a> </b>–<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">签证</a>盘前股价上涨1.1%，此前该公司宣布向其股票回购计划增加120亿美元，使其回购授权总额达到132亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SJM\">Smucker's</a> </b>– Smucker struck a deal to sell its natural beverage and grains businesses to private equity firm Nexus Capital Management for $110 million, with the food producer saying it wanted to focus more resources on its core brands.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SJM\">Smucker的</a></b>-Smucker达成协议，以1.1亿美元的价格将其天然饮料和谷物业务出售给私募股权公司Nexus Capital Management，这家食品生产商表示希望将更多资源集中在其核心品牌上。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgical</a> </b>– <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgical</a> was added to the “conviction buy” list at Goldman Sachs, which points to the company’s pending launch of a new surgical system. Shares added 1.2% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">直观手术</a></b>–<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">直观手术</a>被添加到高盛的“坚定买入”名单中，这表明该公司即将推出一种新的手术系统。盘前股价上涨1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T Inc</a> </b>– Morgan Stanley upgraded AT&amp;T to “overweight” from “equal-weight,” saying a recent slide by the stock creates an attractive risk-reward profile. The firm said there are several other key factors driving the upgrade, including the pending completion of the WarnerMedia/Discoverymerger. AT&amp;T gained 1.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T公司</a></b>-摩根士丹利将AT&amp;T的评级从“同等权重”上调至“跑赢大盘”，称该股近期的下滑创造了有吸引力的风险回报状况。该公司表示，还有其他几个关键因素推动了此次升级，包括WarnerMedia/Discovery合并即将完成。AT&amp;T在盘前交易中上涨1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOOF\">Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.</a> </b>– The pet products seller’s stock added 1.9% in the premarket after Needham began coverage with a “buy” rating. The firm feels Petco should outperform competitors in the pet category, given its presence in multiple channels including veterinary hospitals.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOOF\">Petco健康和保健公司。</a></b>-在Needham开始给予“买入”评级后，这家宠物产品销售商的股价在盘前上涨了1.9%。该公司认为，鉴于Petco在包括兽医医院在内的多个渠道中的存在，它应该会超越宠物类别的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify</a> </b>– The e-commerce platform operator rallied 2.9% in premarket trading after Evercore upgraded it to “outperform” from “in line.” Evercore noted that the stock is about 20% below its year highs and that the company represents a high-quality asset in terms of growth opportunities.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify</a></b>–Evercore将其评级从“持平”上调至“跑赢大盘”后，该电子商务平台运营商在盘前交易中上涨2.9%。Evercore指出，该股比年度高点低约20%，就增长机会而言，该公司代表着优质资产。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-16 21:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S.&nbsp;stock-index futures advanced Thursday morning after&nbsp;the market staged a U-turn&nbsp;the previous trading session, welcoming a Federal Reserve decision to ramp up the pace of its taper and leave interest rates unchanged — for now.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周四上午上涨，此前市场在前一交易日出现180度大转弯，欢迎美联储决定加快缩减规模并暂时维持利率不变。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 204 points, or 0.57%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 31.25 points, or 0.66%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 115.25 points, or 0.71%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e8a71c62338c2a045263d40bb9c86e4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"368\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the Fed giving markets a breather Wednesday, traders will turn their Thursday to&nbsp;fresh Labor Department data on initial weekly jobless claims. First-time unemployment filings are expected to reflect a slight increase after&nbsp;last’s 52-week low.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:00，道指e-mini上涨204点，涨幅0.57%，标普500 e-mini上涨31.25点，涨幅0.66%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨115.25点，涨幅0.71%。随着美联储周三给市场喘息的机会，交易员将在周四转向劳工部关于每周首次申请失业救济人数的最新数据。首次申请失业救济人数预计将在去年创下52周低点后小幅上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: </b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a></b> – Delta rose 2.3% in the premarket after projecting a $200 million fourth-quarter profit. Consensus forecasts were predicting a quarterly loss for Delta, but the carrier said it is seeing strong holiday demand and it is on the path toward exceeding pre-pandemic profit levels.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a></b>-达美航空预计第四季度利润为2亿美元，盘前上涨2.3%。市场普遍预测达美航空将出现季度亏损，但该航空公司表示，假期需求强劲，利润有望超过大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACN\">Accenture PLC</a></b> – The consulting firm’s shares surged 6.7% in the premarket after it reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter, and raised its earnings guidance for fiscal 2022. Revenue rose by more than 20% across the four biggest industry groups in Accenture’s customer base.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACN\">埃森哲公司</a></b>-该咨询公司公布最新季度利润和收入好于预期，并上调2022财年盈利指引后，其股价盘前飙升6.7%。埃森哲客户群中四个最大行业集团的收入增长了20%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGN\">Regeneron Pharmaceuticals</a></b> – The drugmaker’s shares declined 1% in premarket trading after it said its antibody cocktail loses potency against the omicron Covid-19 variant. Regeneron did say that the cocktail is effective against the delta variant.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGN\">再生元制药</a></b>-该制药商表示其抗体鸡尾酒对奥密克戎Covid-19变种失去效力后，其股价在盘前交易中下跌1%。再生元确实说过这种鸡尾酒对德尔塔变异毒株有效。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEN\">Lennar</a></b> – Lennar reported quarterly earnings of $3.91 per share, below the $4.15 consensus estimate, and the homebuilder’s revenue also fell short of forecasts. Lennar was hurt by higher lumber costs as well as increased labor costs and shortages of raw materials, resulting in delayed home deliveries. Lennar tumbled 6.3% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEN\">伦纳尔</a></b>-Lennar公布的季度收益为每股3.91美元，低于市场普遍预期的4.15美元，该住宅建筑商的收入也低于预期。Lennar受到木材成本上涨、劳动力成本增加和原材料短缺的影响，导致送货上门延迟。Lennar在盘前下跌6.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVS\">Novartis AG</a></b> – Novartis launched a new share buyback program worth up to $15 billion, with the drug maker planning to complete those repurchases by the end of 2023. Shares jumped 4% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVS\">诺华公司</a></b>-诺华启动了一项价值高达150亿美元的新股票回购计划，该制药商计划在2023年底前完成这些回购。股价在盘前交易中上涨4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a>&nbsp;</b>– <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a> rose 1.1% in the premarket after announcing that it added $12 billion to its share buyback program, bringing the total amount of its repurchase authority to $13.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">签证</a> </b>–<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">签证</a>盘前股价上涨1.1%，此前该公司宣布向其股票回购计划增加120亿美元，使其回购授权总额达到132亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SJM\">Smucker's</a> </b>– Smucker struck a deal to sell its natural beverage and grains businesses to private equity firm Nexus Capital Management for $110 million, with the food producer saying it wanted to focus more resources on its core brands.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SJM\">Smucker的</a></b>-Smucker达成协议，以1.1亿美元的价格将其天然饮料和谷物业务出售给私募股权公司Nexus Capital Management，这家食品生产商表示希望将更多资源集中在其核心品牌上。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgical</a> </b>– <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgical</a> was added to the “conviction buy” list at Goldman Sachs, which points to the company’s pending launch of a new surgical system. Shares added 1.2% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">直观手术</a></b>–<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">直观手术</a>被添加到高盛的“坚定买入”名单中，这表明该公司即将推出一种新的手术系统。盘前股价上涨1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T Inc</a> </b>– Morgan Stanley upgraded AT&amp;T to “overweight” from “equal-weight,” saying a recent slide by the stock creates an attractive risk-reward profile. The firm said there are several other key factors driving the upgrade, including the pending completion of the WarnerMedia/Discoverymerger. AT&amp;T gained 1.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T公司</a></b>-摩根士丹利将AT&amp;T的评级从“同等权重”上调至“跑赢大盘”，称该股近期的下滑创造了有吸引力的风险回报状况。该公司表示，还有其他几个关键因素推动了此次升级，包括WarnerMedia/Discovery合并即将完成。AT&amp;T在盘前交易中上涨1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOOF\">Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.</a> </b>– The pet products seller’s stock added 1.9% in the premarket after Needham began coverage with a “buy” rating. The firm feels Petco should outperform competitors in the pet category, given its presence in multiple channels including veterinary hospitals.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOOF\">Petco健康和保健公司。</a></b>-在Needham开始给予“买入”评级后，这家宠物产品销售商的股价在盘前上涨了1.9%。该公司认为，鉴于Petco在包括兽医医院在内的多个渠道中的存在，它应该会超越宠物类别的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify</a> </b>– The e-commerce platform operator rallied 2.9% in premarket trading after Evercore upgraded it to “outperform” from “in line.” Evercore noted that the stock is about 20% below its year highs and that the company represents a high-quality asset in terms of growth opportunities.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify</a></b>–Evercore将其评级从“持平”上调至“跑赢大盘”后，该电子商务平台运营商在盘前交易中上涨2.9%。Evercore指出，该股比年度高点低约20%，就增长机会而言，该公司代表着优质资产。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142996286","content_text":"U.S. stock-index futures advanced Thursday morning after the market staged a U-turn the previous trading session, welcoming a Federal Reserve decision to ramp up the pace of its taper and leave interest rates unchanged — for now.\nAt 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 204 points, or 0.57%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 31.25 points, or 0.66%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 115.25 points, or 0.71%.With the Fed giving markets a breather Wednesday, traders will turn their Thursday to fresh Labor Department data on initial weekly jobless claims. First-time unemployment filings are expected to reflect a slight increase after last’s 52-week low.\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket: \nDelta Air Lines – Delta rose 2.3% in the premarket after projecting a $200 million fourth-quarter profit. Consensus forecasts were predicting a quarterly loss for Delta, but the carrier said it is seeing strong holiday demand and it is on the path toward exceeding pre-pandemic profit levels.\nAccenture PLC – The consulting firm’s shares surged 6.7% in the premarket after it reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter, and raised its earnings guidance for fiscal 2022. Revenue rose by more than 20% across the four biggest industry groups in Accenture’s customer base.\nRegeneron Pharmaceuticals – The drugmaker’s shares declined 1% in premarket trading after it said its antibody cocktail loses potency against the omicron Covid-19 variant. Regeneron did say that the cocktail is effective against the delta variant.\nLennar – Lennar reported quarterly earnings of $3.91 per share, below the $4.15 consensus estimate, and the homebuilder’s revenue also fell short of forecasts. Lennar was hurt by higher lumber costs as well as increased labor costs and shortages of raw materials, resulting in delayed home deliveries. Lennar tumbled 6.3% in premarket action.\nNovartis AG – Novartis launched a new share buyback program worth up to $15 billion, with the drug maker planning to complete those repurchases by the end of 2023. Shares jumped 4% in premarket trading.\nVisa – Visa rose 1.1% in the premarket after announcing that it added $12 billion to its share buyback program, bringing the total amount of its repurchase authority to $13.2 billion.\nSmucker's – Smucker struck a deal to sell its natural beverage and grains businesses to private equity firm Nexus Capital Management for $110 million, with the food producer saying it wanted to focus more resources on its core brands.\nIntuitive Surgical – Intuitive Surgical was added to the “conviction buy” list at Goldman Sachs, which points to the company’s pending launch of a new surgical system. Shares added 1.2% in the premarket.\nAT&T Inc – Morgan Stanley upgraded AT&T to “overweight” from “equal-weight,” saying a recent slide by the stock creates an attractive risk-reward profile. The firm said there are several other key factors driving the upgrade, including the pending completion of the WarnerMedia/Discoverymerger. AT&T gained 1.5% in premarket trading.\nPetco Health and Wellness Company, Inc. – The pet products seller’s stock added 1.9% in the premarket after Needham began coverage with a “buy” rating. The firm feels Petco should outperform competitors in the pet category, given its presence in multiple channels including veterinary hospitals.\nShopify – The e-commerce platform operator rallied 2.9% in premarket trading after Evercore upgraded it to “outperform” from “in line.” Evercore noted that the stock is about 20% below its year highs and that the company represents a high-quality asset in terms of growth opportunities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607472753,"gmtCreate":1639582584191,"gmtModify":1639582624621,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"[Miser]&nbsp;","text":"[Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607472753","repostId":"2191956629","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607364520,"gmtCreate":1639491828275,"gmtModify":1639491828394,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh some&nbsp;","listText":"Oh some&nbsp;","text":"Oh some","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607364520","repostId":"2191580999","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604509349,"gmtCreate":1639407930005,"gmtModify":1639408055418,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will up!?&nbsp;","listText":"Will up!?&nbsp;","text":"Will up!?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604509349","repostId":"1171271872","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1171271872","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639348466,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1171271872?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 06:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、联邦快递、Lennar、金宝汤等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1171271872","media":"Barrons","summary":"The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.Earnings reports this week are few, but will include Campbell Soup on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian Automotive, and Adobe on Thursday; and","content":"<p>The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s&nbsp;last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.</p><p><blockquote>本周投资者的主要事件将是美联储利率制定委员会2021年的最后一次会议。官员们最近的评论更加鹰派，可能会宣布加速每月资产购买缩减的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会为期两天的会议将于周二和周三举行。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings reports this week are few, but will include&nbsp;Campbell Soup&nbsp;on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian&nbsp;Automotive, and&nbsp;Adobe&nbsp;on Thursday; and&nbsp;Darden Restaurants&nbsp;on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的财报很少，但周二将包括金宝汤；Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Rivian汽车和Adobe周四；周五还有达顿餐厅。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括美国劳工统计局周二公布的11月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预计整体指数环比上涨0.55%，核心PPI上涨0.4%。这两者都与10月份的生产者通胀速度大致相当。</blockquote></p><p> Other data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment&nbsp;index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>其他发布的数据包括周二全国独立企业联合会的信心指数、周三人口普查局公布的11月零售支出以及周四公布的11月新屋开工数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/13</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/13</b></blockquote></p><p> J.Jill&nbsp;and&nbsp;PHX Minerals&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>J.Jill和PHX Minerals在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/14</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/14</b></blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup, Barnes Group, and&nbsp;Avaya Holdings&nbsp;host investor days.</p><p><blockquote>金宝汤、巴恩斯集团和Avaya Holdings举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布11月份生产者价格指数。市场普遍预计环比上涨0.55%，不包括食品和能源的核心PPI将上涨0.4%。相比之下，10月份的增幅分别为0.6%和0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国联合会</b>独立企业报告了11月份的指数，该指数调查了全国约5,000名小企业主。预期看涨期权为98.3，而10月份为98.2。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/15</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/15</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market Committee</b> concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场委员会</b>结束了为期两天的会议，届时政策制定者将讨论加快缩减月度证券购买的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b> export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工统计局报告</b>11月进出口价格数据。预计出口价格环比上涨0.5%，而进口价格预计上涨0.5%。相比之下，10月份的涨幅分别为1.5%和1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房屋建筑商协会发布了12月份NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。普遍估计读数为84，而11月份的读数为83。该指数去年年底达到90的峰值，房屋建筑商仍然看好房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>11月份零售支出报告。预计经季节调整后零售额环比增长0.7%，而10月份为增长1.7%。不包括汽车在内，支出预计将增长0.8%，而上一时期为1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/16</b></blockquote></p><p> Heico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Heico、Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Jabil、Adobe、Rivian汽车和Nordson等公司在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>releases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份新的住宅建设报告。季调后成屋开工年率料为156.3万套，10月为152万套。当房屋开始挖掘时，房屋开工被计算在内。新房建设许可证预计为165.5万份，而10月份为165.3万份。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bank of England</b> announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>英格兰银行</b>宣布利率决定并公布会议记录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布11月份工业生产数据。继10月份增长1.6%后，经济学家预计增长0.6%。产能利用率预计为76.8，与10月份的76.4%大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/17</b></blockquote></p><p> Steelcase,Darden Restaurants, and&nbsp;Quanex Building Products&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Steelcase、Darden Restaurants和Quanex Building Products在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、联邦快递、Lennar、金宝汤等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian,Adobe,FedEx,Lennar,Campbell Soup,and Other Stocks to Watch This Week<blockquote>Rivian、Adobe、联邦快递、Lennar、金宝汤等本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 06:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s&nbsp;last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.</p><p><blockquote>本周投资者的主要事件将是美联储利率制定委员会2021年的最后一次会议。官员们最近的评论更加鹰派，可能会宣布加速每月资产购买缩减的计划。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会为期两天的会议将于周二和周三举行。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings reports this week are few, but will include&nbsp;Campbell Soup&nbsp;on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian&nbsp;Automotive, and&nbsp;Adobe&nbsp;on Thursday; and&nbsp;Darden Restaurants&nbsp;on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>本周的财报很少，但周二将包括金宝汤；Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Rivian汽车和Adobe周四；周五还有达顿餐厅。</blockquote></p><p> Economic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.</p><p><blockquote>本周公布的经济数据包括美国劳工统计局周二公布的11月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预计整体指数环比上涨0.55%，核心PPI上涨0.4%。这两者都与10月份的生产者通胀速度大致相当。</blockquote></p><p> Other data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment&nbsp;index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>其他发布的数据包括周二全国独立企业联合会的信心指数、周三人口普查局公布的11月零售支出以及周四公布的11月新屋开工数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/13</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/13</b></blockquote></p><p> J.Jill&nbsp;and&nbsp;PHX Minerals&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>J.Jill和PHX Minerals在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/14</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/14</b></blockquote></p><p> Campbell Soup, Barnes Group, and&nbsp;Avaya Holdings&nbsp;host investor days.</p><p><blockquote>金宝汤、巴恩斯集团和Avaya Holdings举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布11月份生产者价格指数。市场普遍预计环比上涨0.55%，不包括食品和能源的核心PPI将上涨0.4%。相比之下，10月份的增幅分别为0.6%和0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Federation</b>&nbsp;of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国联合会</b>独立企业报告了11月份的指数，该指数调查了全国约5,000名小企业主。预期看涨期权为98.3，而10月份为98.2。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/15</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/15</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market Committee</b> concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场委员会</b>结束了为期两天的会议，届时政策制定者将讨论加快缩减月度证券购买的时间表。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b> export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工统计局报告</b>11月进出口价格数据。预计出口价格环比上涨0.5%，而进口价格预计上涨0.5%。相比之下，10月份的涨幅分别为1.5%和1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房屋建筑商协会发布了12月份NAHB/富国银行住房市场指数。普遍估计读数为84，而11月份的读数为83。该指数去年年底达到90的峰值，房屋建筑商仍然看好房地产市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>11月份零售支出报告。预计经季节调整后零售额环比增长0.7%，而10月份为增长1.7%。不包括汽车在内，支出预计将增长0.8%，而上一时期为1.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/16</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/16</b></blockquote></p><p> Heico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Heico、Lennar、Accenture、FedEx、Jabil、Adobe、Rivian汽车和Nordson等公司在评级举办财报会议。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b>releases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份新的住宅建设报告。季调后成屋开工年率料为156.3万套，10月为152万套。当房屋开始挖掘时，房屋开工被计算在内。新房建设许可证预计为165.5万份，而10月份为165.3万份。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bank of England</b> announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>英格兰银行</b>宣布利率决定并公布会议记录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>公布11月份工业生产数据。继10月份增长1.6%后，经济学家预计增长0.6%。产能利用率预计为76.8，与10月份的76.4%大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/17</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/17</b></blockquote></p><p> Steelcase,Darden Restaurants, and&nbsp;Quanex Building Products&nbsp;host earnings conference calls.</p><p><blockquote>Steelcase、Darden Restaurants和Quanex Building Products在评级举办收益会议。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-fedex-rivian-lennar-campbell-adobe-51639330550?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SCS":"Steelcase Inc.","HEI":"海科航空","ADBE":"Adobe",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PHX":"潘汉德尔油气","FDX":"联邦快递",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ACN":"埃森哲","LEN":"莱纳建筑公司",".DJI":"道琼斯","CPB":"金宝汤","DRI":"达登饭店","JILL":"J.Jill Inc.","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-to-watch-this-week-fedex-rivian-lennar-campbell-adobe-51639330550?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1171271872","content_text":"The main event for investors this week will be the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee’s last meeting of 2021. Recent commentary from officials has leaned more hawkish, setting up a potential announcement of plans to accelerate monthly asset purchase tapering.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting takes place on Tuesday and Wednesday.\nEarnings reports this week are few, but will include Campbell Soup on Tuesday;Lennar,Accenture,FedEx,Rivian Automotive, and Adobe on Thursday; and Darden Restaurants on Friday.\nEconomic data coming out this week includes the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ producer price index for November on Tuesday. Economists expect a 0.55% month-over-month rise for the headline index and a 0.4% gain for the core PPI. Those would both roughly match October’s pace of producer inflation.\nOther data releases include the National Federation of Independent Businesses’ sentiment index on Tuesday, November retail-sales spending from the Census Bureau on Wednesday, and the November housing starts on Thursday.\nMonday 12/13\nJ.Jill and PHX Minerals host earnings conference calls.\nTuesday 12/14\nCampbell Soup, Barnes Group, and Avaya Holdings host investor days.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the producer price index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 0.55% month-over-month rise, and for the core PPI, which excludes food and energy, to gain 0.4%. This compares with increases of 0.6% and 0.4%, respectively, in October.\nThe National Federation of Independent Businesses reports its index, which surveys about 5,000 small-business owners across the country, for November. Expectations call for a reading of 98.3, compared with 98.2 in October.\nWednesday 12/15\nThe Federal Open Market Committee concludes its two-day meeting, when policy makers will discuss accelerating the timetable for tapering monthly securities purchases.\nThe BLS reports export and import price data for November. Expectations are for a 0.5% month-over-month rise in export prices, while import prices are seen increasing 0.5%. This compares with gains of 1.5% and 1.2%, respectively, in October.\nThe National Association of Home Builders releases its NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for December. Consensus estimate is for an 84 reading, compared with an 83 reading in November. The index peaked at 90 late last year, and home builders remain bullish on the housing market.\nThe Census Bureau reports on retail-sales spending for November. Expectations are for a seasonally adjusted 0.7% month-over-month increase in retail sales, compared with a 1.7% rise in October. Excluding autos, spending is seen rising 0.8%, compared with 1.7% in the previous period.\nThursday 12/16\nHeico,Lennar, Accenture, FedEx, Jabil, Adobe, Rivian Automotive, and Nordson are among companies hosting earnings conference calls.\nThe Census Bureaureleases its New Residential Construction report for November. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is expected to be 1.563 million units, compared with 1.52 million in October. A housing start is counted when excavation begins on a home. Permits issued for new-home construction are expected to be 1.655 million, compared with 1.653 million in October.\nThe Bank of England announces its interest-rate decision and publishes the minutes of the meeting.\nThe Federal Reserve releases industrial production data for November. Economists are looking for a 0.6% rise, after a 1.6% increase in October. Capacity utilization is expected at 76.8, roughly in line with October’s 76.4%.\nFriday 12/17\nSteelcase,Darden Restaurants, and Quanex Building Products host earnings conference calls.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SCS":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"FDX":0.9,"ADBE":0.9,"ACN":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"DRI":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"PHX":0.9,"LEN":0.9,"HEI":0.9,"JILL":0.9,"CPB":0.9,"AVYA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605125581,"gmtCreate":1639132573438,"gmtModify":1639132573600,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dropping&nbsp;","listText":"Dropping&nbsp;","text":"Dropping","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605125581","repostId":"1133845166","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133845166","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639130022,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133845166?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 17:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Grab shares dropped another 2% in premarket trading<blockquote>Grab股价在盘前交易中又下跌2%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133845166","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Grab shares dropped another 2% in premarket trading.The stock fell more than 9% yesterday.","content":"<p>Grab shares dropped another 2% in premarket trading.The stock fell more than 9% yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>Grab股价在盘前交易中又下跌2%。该股昨日跌超9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c53085cee57f6060446a02aa58e6a691\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grab shares dropped another 2% in premarket trading<blockquote>Grab股价在盘前交易中又下跌2%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab shares dropped another 2% in premarket trading<blockquote>Grab股价在盘前交易中又下跌2%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-10 17:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Grab shares dropped another 2% in premarket trading.The stock fell more than 9% yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>Grab股价在盘前交易中又下跌2%。该股昨日跌超9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c53085cee57f6060446a02aa58e6a691\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"619\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GRAB":"Grab Holdings"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133845166","content_text":"Grab shares dropped another 2% in premarket trading.The stock fell more than 9% yesterday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GRAB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608411224,"gmtCreate":1638775703822,"gmtModify":1638775703887,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Scarry&nbsp;","listText":"Scarry&nbsp;","text":"Scarry","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608411224","repostId":"1115674384","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115674384","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638775462,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115674384?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 15:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Even Good Penny Stocks Like Senseonics Aren’t Always Profitable<blockquote>即使是像Senseonics这样优秀的细价股也不总是盈利</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115674384","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"SENS stock's tech can outpace competitors, but it still risks losing the glucose monitoring race","content":"<p><div> To call Senseonics Holdings(NYSEAMERICAN:SENS) a penny stock isn’t to say it sells for a penny. The phrase refers to any stock with a low price and low market capitalization, and SENS stock currently ...</p><p><blockquote><div>对于看涨期权Senseonics Holdings(NYSEAMERICAN：SENS)来说，细价股并不意味着它的售价为一便士。这个短语指的是任何低价和低市值的股票，而SENS股票目前...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/even-good-penny-stocks-like-senseonics-arent-always-profitable/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/even-good-penny-stocks-like-senseonics-arent-always-profitable/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Even Good Penny Stocks Like Senseonics Aren’t Always Profitable<blockquote>即使是像Senseonics这样优秀的细价股也不总是盈利</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEven Good Penny Stocks Like Senseonics Aren’t Always Profitable<blockquote>即使是像Senseonics这样优秀的细价股也不总是盈利</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-06 15:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> To call Senseonics Holdings(NYSEAMERICAN:SENS) a penny stock isn’t to say it sells for a penny. The phrase refers to any stock with a low price and low market capitalization, and SENS stock currently ...</p><p><blockquote><div>对于看涨期权Senseonics Holdings(NYSEAMERICAN：SENS)来说，细价股并不意味着它的售价为一便士。这个短语指的是任何低价和低市值的股票，而SENS股票目前...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/even-good-penny-stocks-like-senseonics-arent-always-profitable/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/even-good-penny-stocks-like-senseonics-arent-always-profitable/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/even-good-penny-stocks-like-senseonics-arent-always-profitable/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SENS":"Senseonics Holdings,Inc."},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/even-good-penny-stocks-like-senseonics-arent-always-profitable/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115674384","content_text":"To call Senseonics Holdings(NYSEAMERICAN:SENS) a penny stock isn’t to say it sells for a penny. The phrase refers to any stock with a low price and low market capitalization, and SENS stock currently goes for about $2.70 per share. Such stocks are always speculative, and the low market cap makes them easy for investors to manipulate.\nSenseonics makes Eversense, an implanted glucose monitor for diabetics. The latest version can take measurements for six months. The version on the market today runs for just three months, but that’s still longer than its competitors.\nSenseonics went public over five years ago in March 2016. It priced its 15.8 million shares at $2.85 each. As of the morning of Dec. 2, the stock was at the same price. This doesn’t mean SENS stock has gone nowhere. There are now almost 446 million shares outstanding.\nThe SENS Stock Story\nThe Senseonics story is one of great promise, but not great results. The Dec. 2 market cap of $1.27 billion supports sales of $13.6 million over the last four quarters.\nIf you have severe diabetes, however,Eversense is cool. The sensor, implanted in an arm, is not much bigger than a thick grain of rice. The transmitter sits outside the arm. It is removable, rechargeable and water resistant.\nIt’s also pretty accurate. The data runs through a service provider called Ascensia, which was created from former units of Panasonic(OTCMKTS:PCRFY) and Bayer(OTCMKTS:BAYRY). You can see the results on a mobile app or a smart watch.\nThe product has gone through multiple rounds of hype and disappointment. When the hype was high, Senseonics sold stock. When disappointment came in, the price fell.\nIn September, Senseonics had a premarket approval supplement application before the Food and Drug Administration. The hope was that if the application was approved,sales could jump to $150 million to 200 million in a few years. As things currently stand, you’re paying $6,400 per year for the product and service.\nHopes also ran high when SENS stock was picked up by traderson Reddit. At one point in February, the shares traded at $5.56. Our Chris Markoch recently wrote about Senseonics having the potential for 10x gains in 2022.\nThe Penny Stock Story\nI have a basic prejudice against penny stocks. That is, if these ideas are so great, why haven’t venture capitalists jumped on it? Why does management need your money to reach the market?\nIn the case of Senseonics, the argument is one of time. It may take a decade for the company’s approach to prove itself. Meanwhile, it faces competition from Dexcom(NASDAQ:DXCM). This rival company has endorsements from singers Nick Jonas and Patti LaBelle and costs $300 per month for a sensor that lasts 10 days. There’s also Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT), which offers a system called MyFreeStyle with a sensor that lasts 14 days.\nThen there’s Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL), which is rumored to have plans for a glucose monitoring system inside Version 8 of the Apple Watch, using short-wavelength infrared sensors.\nSenseonics has a long-running, accurate sensor, and if insurers pick it up so the price to patients drop, sales could jump. But it’s not alone in the market.\nThe Bottom Line on SENS Stock\nSenseonics is what I call a “good” penny stock. It’s working on a real product with serious potential. The company has been developing and refining its offering for many years, and the latest version shows promise.\nBut a small company can only run so fast.A surgical implant that lasts six months won’t win against a service using radio waves inside an Apple Watch.\nEven if Senseonics achieves $150 million in sales, you’re still paying 10 times revenue for SENS stock. You don’t know its profitability compared to Abbott and Dexcom. Plus, Apple could blow it out of the water on costs.\nThe great future Senseonics promises might not arrive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SENS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":687,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608386970,"gmtCreate":1638627195556,"gmtModify":1638627195659,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rough week","listText":"Rough week","text":"Rough week","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608386970","repostId":"1174181873","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1174181873","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638578178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174181873?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-04 08:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：数字银行和云基础设施引领IPO周4</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174181873","media":"renaissancecap...","summary":"The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billi","content":"<p>The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>IPO市场预计将在未来一周回暖，预计将有四起IPO筹集37亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett-backed&nbsp;<b>Nu Holdings</b>(NU) plans to raise $2.5 billion at a $41.1 billion market cap. Operating as Nubank, this Brazilian online-only bank was formed in 2013 to launch a no-fees credit card offering with a mobile-first customer experience, but has since expanded to offer various other financial products. Nu has grown rapidly since its inception, with a current base of nearly 50 million customers, though revenue per customer has been falling as its base grows.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特支持<b>Nu控股</b>(NU)计划以411亿美元的市值筹集25亿美元。这家巴西纯在线银行成立于2013年，名为Nubank，旨在推出具有移动优先客户体验的免费信用卡产品，但此后已扩展到提供各种其他金融产品。Nu自成立以来发展迅速，目前拥有近5000万客户群，尽管随着客户群的增长，每个客户的收入一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud infrastructure platform&nbsp;<b>HashiCorp</b>(HCP) plans to raise $1.1 billion at a $14.0 billion market cap. This VC-backed company provides a suite of solutions that standardize and automate the provisioning, securing, connecting, and running of cloud infrastructure at scale. While it has demonstrated rapid growth and a sticky customer base, HashiCorp is highly unprofitable due to S&amp;M spend.</p><p><blockquote>云基础设施平台<b>哈希公司</b>(HCP)计划以140亿美元的市值筹集11亿美元。这家风险投资支持的公司提供了一套解决方案，可标准化和自动化大规模云基础设施的配置、保护、连接和运行。尽管HashiCorp表现出快速增长和粘性客户群，但由于S&amp;M支出，HashiCorp非常无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Cannabis finance REIT&nbsp;<b>Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance</b>(REFI) plans to raise $106 million at a $296 million market cap. This newly-formed REIT is focused on originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. Its current portfolio consists of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.</p><p><blockquote>大麻金融房地产投资信托基金<b>芝加哥大西洋房地产金融</b>(REFI)计划以2.96亿美元的市值筹集1.06亿美元。这个新成立的房地产投资信托基金专注于发起、构建和投资由商业房地产担保的第一抵押贷款和另类结构性融资。其目前的投资组合包括向大麻行业国家许可运营商提供的高级贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian gold exploration company&nbsp;<b>Austin Gold</b>(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. This Canadian gold exploration company currently has interests in four properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大黄金勘探公司<b>奥斯汀·戈尔德</b>(AUST)计划以6400万美元的市值筹集1500万美元。这家加拿大黄金勘探公司目前拥有位于内华达州的四处地产的权益，目前只有一处地产被认为是重要的。迄今为止，奥斯汀黄金尚未产生任何营业收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619493174116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：数字银行和云基础设施引领IPO周4</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：数字银行和云基础设施引领IPO周4</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">renaissancecap...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-04 08:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>IPO市场预计将在未来一周回暖，预计将有四起IPO筹集37亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett-backed&nbsp;<b>Nu Holdings</b>(NU) plans to raise $2.5 billion at a $41.1 billion market cap. Operating as Nubank, this Brazilian online-only bank was formed in 2013 to launch a no-fees credit card offering with a mobile-first customer experience, but has since expanded to offer various other financial products. Nu has grown rapidly since its inception, with a current base of nearly 50 million customers, though revenue per customer has been falling as its base grows.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特支持<b>Nu控股</b>(NU)计划以411亿美元的市值筹集25亿美元。这家巴西纯在线银行成立于2013年，名为Nubank，旨在推出具有移动优先客户体验的免费信用卡产品，但此后已扩展到提供各种其他金融产品。Nu自成立以来发展迅速，目前拥有近5000万客户群，尽管随着客户群的增长，每个客户的收入一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud infrastructure platform&nbsp;<b>HashiCorp</b>(HCP) plans to raise $1.1 billion at a $14.0 billion market cap. This VC-backed company provides a suite of solutions that standardize and automate the provisioning, securing, connecting, and running of cloud infrastructure at scale. While it has demonstrated rapid growth and a sticky customer base, HashiCorp is highly unprofitable due to S&amp;M spend.</p><p><blockquote>云基础设施平台<b>哈希公司</b>(HCP)计划以140亿美元的市值筹集11亿美元。这家风险投资支持的公司提供了一套解决方案，可标准化和自动化大规模云基础设施的配置、保护、连接和运行。尽管HashiCorp表现出快速增长和粘性客户群，但由于S&amp;M支出，HashiCorp非常无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Cannabis finance REIT&nbsp;<b>Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance</b>(REFI) plans to raise $106 million at a $296 million market cap. This newly-formed REIT is focused on originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. Its current portfolio consists of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.</p><p><blockquote>大麻金融房地产投资信托基金<b>芝加哥大西洋房地产金融</b>(REFI)计划以2.96亿美元的市值筹集1.06亿美元。这个新成立的房地产投资信托基金专注于发起、构建和投资由商业房地产担保的第一抵押贷款和另类结构性融资。其目前的投资组合包括向大麻行业国家许可运营商提供的高级贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian gold exploration company&nbsp;<b>Austin Gold</b>(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. This Canadian gold exploration company currently has interests in four properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大黄金勘探公司<b>奥斯汀·戈尔德</b>(AUST)计划以6400万美元的市值筹集1500万美元。这家加拿大黄金勘探公司目前拥有位于内华达州的四处地产的权益，目前只有一处地产被认为是重要的。迄今为止，奥斯汀黄金尚未产生任何营业收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89235/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-banking-and-cloud-infrastructure-lead-a-4-IPO-wee\">renaissancecap...</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"REFI":"Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.","HCP":"HashiCorp, Inc.","NU":"Nu Holdings Ltd."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89235/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-banking-and-cloud-infrastructure-lead-a-4-IPO-wee","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174181873","content_text":"The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billion.\nBuffett-backed Nu Holdings(NU) plans to raise $2.5 billion at a $41.1 billion market cap. Operating as Nubank, this Brazilian online-only bank was formed in 2013 to launch a no-fees credit card offering with a mobile-first customer experience, but has since expanded to offer various other financial products. Nu has grown rapidly since its inception, with a current base of nearly 50 million customers, though revenue per customer has been falling as its base grows.\nCloud infrastructure platform HashiCorp(HCP) plans to raise $1.1 billion at a $14.0 billion market cap. This VC-backed company provides a suite of solutions that standardize and automate the provisioning, securing, connecting, and running of cloud infrastructure at scale. While it has demonstrated rapid growth and a sticky customer base, HashiCorp is highly unprofitable due to S&M spend.\nCannabis finance REIT Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance(REFI) plans to raise $106 million at a $296 million market cap. This newly-formed REIT is focused on originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. Its current portfolio consists of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.\nCanadian gold exploration company Austin Gold(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. This Canadian gold exploration company currently has interests in four properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NU":0.9,"REFI":0.9,"HCP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":818,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":841066897,"gmtCreate":1635863745406,"gmtModify":1635863745503,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841066897","repostId":"1106703730","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106703730","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635863476,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106703730?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 22:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Pharmaceutical stocks climbed in morning trading<blockquote>医药股早盘攀升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106703730","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Pharmaceutical stocks climbed in morning trading.Novavax,BioNTech SE,Lilly,Pfizer,Moderna,AstraZenec","content":"<p>Pharmaceutical stocks climbed in morning trading.Novavax,BioNTech SE,Lilly,Pfizer,Moderna,AstraZeneca,Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;rose between 1% and 5%.</p><p><blockquote>医药股早盘上涨。Novavax、BioNTech SE、礼来、辉瑞、Moderna、阿斯利康、强生涨幅在1%至5%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9498ce51e3f565709fbc6d02ed61811a\" tg-width=\"410\" tg-height=\"658\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Pharmaceutical stocks climbed in morning trading<blockquote>医药股早盘攀升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPharmaceutical stocks climbed in morning trading<blockquote>医药股早盘攀升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-02 22:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Pharmaceutical stocks climbed in morning trading.Novavax,BioNTech SE,Lilly,Pfizer,Moderna,AstraZeneca,Johnson &amp; Johnson&nbsp;rose between 1% and 5%.</p><p><blockquote>医药股早盘上涨。Novavax、BioNTech SE、礼来、辉瑞、Moderna、阿斯利康、强生涨幅在1%至5%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9498ce51e3f565709fbc6d02ed61811a\" tg-width=\"410\" tg-height=\"658\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PFE":"辉瑞","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","BNTX":"BioNTech SE","NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106703730","content_text":"Pharmaceutical stocks climbed in morning trading.Novavax,BioNTech SE,Lilly,Pfizer,Moderna,AstraZeneca,Johnson & Johnson rose between 1% and 5%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVAX":0.9,"MRNA":0.9,"BNTX":0.9,"PFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876286994,"gmtCreate":1637319131054,"gmtModify":1637319131260,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will go up&nbsp;","listText":"Will go up&nbsp;","text":"Will go up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876286994","repostId":"2184381713","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":567,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866146362,"gmtCreate":1632750301156,"gmtModify":1632798121015,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hell day&nbsp;","listText":"Hell day&nbsp;","text":"Hell 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company&nbsp;","listText":"Strong company&nbsp;","text":"Strong 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read up","listText":"Good read up","text":"Good read up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880978552","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会超过增长，周期性会超过防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会超过增长，周期性会超过防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高Covid贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832282703,"gmtCreate":1629639715002,"gmtModify":1631891784975,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Market confusing&nbsp;","listText":"Market confusing&nbsp;","text":"Market confusing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832282703","repostId":"2161374148","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":585,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807386741,"gmtCreate":1628000664383,"gmtModify":1631893679337,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up up&nbsp;","listText":"Up up&nbsp;","text":"Up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807386741","repostId":"1184642734","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184642734","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627999990,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184642734?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-03 22:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Factory Orders Top 2018 Highs, Despite Tumbling ISM<blockquote>尽管ISM暴跌，美国工厂订单仍创2018年新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184642734","media":"zerohedge","summary":"(Aug 3) Despite a notably weak print for ISM's Manufacturing survey (at 2021 lows), analysts expecte","content":"<p>(Aug&nbsp;3)&nbsp;Despite a notably weak print for ISM's Manufacturing survey (at 2021 lows), analysts expected US Factory orders to continue their rebound back near 2018's record highs, and they did, rising 1.5% MoM, better than the 1.0% increase expected.</p><p><blockquote>（8月3日）尽管ISM制造业调查结果明显疲软（处于2021年低点），但分析师预计美国工厂订单将继续反弹至2018年创纪录高点附近，事实也的确如此，环比增长1.5%，好于预期的1.0%增幅。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f428881ba2d140bd04f6d5fec2f02f46\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>That is the 13th monthly increase of the last 14 and puts Factory orders back at their 2018 highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是过去14个月中的第13个月度增长，使工厂订单回到2018年的高点。</b></blockquote></p><p> The final print for durable goods orders in June were slightly better than expected and improved over the month.</p><p><blockquote>6月份耐用品订单的最终打印量略好于预期，并在当月有所改善。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, just like we saw in Q2 2018, survey data appears to be signaling something not so positive for US factory orders going forward...</p><p><blockquote>最后，就像我们在2018年Q2看到的那样，调查数据似乎预示着美国工厂订单的未来不太乐观...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4150df7f625f92e68cd729cbf4044c0c\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"562\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Unless, of course, we get another few trillion in Washington largesse washing around the nation's crony capitalists.</p><p><blockquote>当然，除非我们在华盛顿再得到几万亿美元的慷慨资助，绕过这个国家的裙带资本家。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Factory Orders Top 2018 Highs, Despite Tumbling ISM<blockquote>尽管ISM暴跌，美国工厂订单仍创2018年新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Factory Orders Top 2018 Highs, Despite Tumbling ISM<blockquote>尽管ISM暴跌，美国工厂订单仍创2018年新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-03 22:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug&nbsp;3)&nbsp;Despite a notably weak print for ISM's Manufacturing survey (at 2021 lows), analysts expected US Factory orders to continue their rebound back near 2018's record highs, and they did, rising 1.5% MoM, better than the 1.0% increase expected.</p><p><blockquote>（8月3日）尽管ISM制造业调查结果明显疲软（处于2021年低点），但分析师预计美国工厂订单将继续反弹至2018年创纪录高点附近，事实也的确如此，环比增长1.5%，好于预期的1.0%增幅。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f428881ba2d140bd04f6d5fec2f02f46\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bloomberg</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：彭博社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>That is the 13th monthly increase of the last 14 and puts Factory orders back at their 2018 highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这是过去14个月中的第13个月度增长，使工厂订单回到2018年的高点。</b></blockquote></p><p> The final print for durable goods orders in June were slightly better than expected and improved over the month.</p><p><blockquote>6月份耐用品订单的最终打印量略好于预期，并在当月有所改善。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, just like we saw in Q2 2018, survey data appears to be signaling something not so positive for US factory orders going forward...</p><p><blockquote>最后，就像我们在2018年Q2看到的那样，调查数据似乎预示着美国工厂订单的未来不太乐观...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4150df7f625f92e68cd729cbf4044c0c\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"562\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Unless, of course, we get another few trillion in Washington largesse washing around the nation's crony capitalists.</p><p><blockquote>当然，除非我们在华盛顿再得到几万亿美元的慷慨资助，绕过这个国家的裙带资本家。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-factory-orders-top-2018-highs-despite-tumbling-ism\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-factory-orders-top-2018-highs-despite-tumbling-ism","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184642734","content_text":"(Aug 3) Despite a notably weak print for ISM's Manufacturing survey (at 2021 lows), analysts expected US Factory orders to continue their rebound back near 2018's record highs, and they did, rising 1.5% MoM, better than the 1.0% increase expected.\nSource: Bloomberg\nThat is the 13th monthly increase of the last 14 and puts Factory orders back at their 2018 highs.\nThe final print for durable goods orders in June were slightly better than expected and improved over the month.\nFinally, just like we saw in Q2 2018, survey data appears to be signaling something not so positive for US factory orders going forward...\n\nSource: Bloomberg\nUnless, of course, we get another few trillion in Washington largesse washing around the nation's crony capitalists.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175236226,"gmtCreate":1627033168665,"gmtModify":1633768609441,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dropping sign","listText":"Dropping sign","text":"Dropping 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stocks rose in morning trading.Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,Canaan,Overstock,The9,Square,PayPal&nbsp;and&nbsp;Coinbase&nbsp;climbed between 2% and 7%.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币股票在早盘交易中上涨。Marathon Digital、Riot Blockchain、Canaan、Overstock、第九城市、Square、PayPal和Coinbase上涨2%至7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d78e1ac1d72ef28ea5c0cc29d1a84ce8\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"657\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","CAN":"嘉楠科技","MARA":"MARA Holdings","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","PYPL":"PayPal","SOS":"SOS Limited","NCTY":"第九城市","RIOT":"Riot Platforms"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104450173","content_text":"Crypto stocks rose in morning trading.Marathon Digital,Riot Blockchain,Canaan,Overstock,The9,Square,PayPal and Coinbase climbed between 2% and 7%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIOT":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"CAN":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"BTCM":0.9,"OSTK":0.9,"SOS":0.9,"MARA":0.9,"BTBT":0.9,"NCTY":0.9,"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":831145758,"gmtCreate":1629296790874,"gmtModify":1631891785012,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is gold good","listText":"Is gold good","text":"Is gold 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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639659703,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142996286?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-16 21:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142996286","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock-index futures advanced Thursday morning after the market staged a U-turn the previous trading session, welcoming a Federal Reserve decision to ramp up the pace of its taper and leave interest rates unchanged — for now.$Delta Air Lines$ – Delta rose 2.3% in the premarket after projecting a $200 million fourth-quarter profit. Consensus forecasts were predicting a quarterly loss for Delta, but the carrier said it is seeing strong holiday demand and it is on the path toward exceeding pre-","content":"<p>U.S.&nbsp;stock-index futures advanced Thursday morning after&nbsp;the market staged a U-turn&nbsp;the previous trading session, welcoming a Federal Reserve decision to ramp up the pace of its taper and leave interest rates unchanged — for now.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周四上午上涨，此前市场在前一交易日出现180度大转弯，欢迎美联储决定加快缩减规模并暂时维持利率不变。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 204 points, or 0.57%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 31.25 points, or 0.66%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 115.25 points, or 0.71%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e8a71c62338c2a045263d40bb9c86e4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"368\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the Fed giving markets a breather Wednesday, traders will turn their Thursday to&nbsp;fresh Labor Department data on initial weekly jobless claims. First-time unemployment filings are expected to reflect a slight increase after&nbsp;last’s 52-week low.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:00，道指e-mini上涨204点，涨幅0.57%，标普500 e-mini上涨31.25点，涨幅0.66%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨115.25点，涨幅0.71%。随着美联储周三给市场喘息的机会，交易员将在周四转向劳工部关于每周首次申请失业救济人数的最新数据。首次申请失业救济人数预计将在去年创下52周低点后小幅上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: </b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a></b> – Delta rose 2.3% in the premarket after projecting a $200 million fourth-quarter profit. Consensus forecasts were predicting a quarterly loss for Delta, but the carrier said it is seeing strong holiday demand and it is on the path toward exceeding pre-pandemic profit levels.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a></b>-达美航空预计第四季度利润为2亿美元，盘前上涨2.3%。市场普遍预测达美航空将出现季度亏损，但该航空公司表示，假期需求强劲，利润有望超过大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACN\">Accenture PLC</a></b> – The consulting firm’s shares surged 6.7% in the premarket after it reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter, and raised its earnings guidance for fiscal 2022. Revenue rose by more than 20% across the four biggest industry groups in Accenture’s customer base.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACN\">埃森哲公司</a></b>-该咨询公司公布最新季度利润和收入好于预期，并上调2022财年盈利指引后，其股价盘前飙升6.7%。埃森哲客户群中四个最大行业集团的收入增长了20%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGN\">Regeneron Pharmaceuticals</a></b> – The drugmaker’s shares declined 1% in premarket trading after it said its antibody cocktail loses potency against the omicron Covid-19 variant. Regeneron did say that the cocktail is effective against the delta variant.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGN\">再生元制药</a></b>-该制药商表示其抗体鸡尾酒对奥密克戎Covid-19变种失去效力后，其股价在盘前交易中下跌1%。再生元确实说过这种鸡尾酒对德尔塔变异毒株有效。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEN\">Lennar</a></b> – Lennar reported quarterly earnings of $3.91 per share, below the $4.15 consensus estimate, and the homebuilder’s revenue also fell short of forecasts. Lennar was hurt by higher lumber costs as well as increased labor costs and shortages of raw materials, resulting in delayed home deliveries. Lennar tumbled 6.3% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEN\">伦纳尔</a></b>-Lennar公布的季度收益为每股3.91美元，低于市场普遍预期的4.15美元，该住宅建筑商的收入也低于预期。Lennar受到木材成本上涨、劳动力成本增加和原材料短缺的影响，导致送货上门延迟。Lennar在盘前下跌6.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVS\">Novartis AG</a></b> – Novartis launched a new share buyback program worth up to $15 billion, with the drug maker planning to complete those repurchases by the end of 2023. Shares jumped 4% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVS\">诺华公司</a></b>-诺华启动了一项价值高达150亿美元的新股票回购计划，该制药商计划在2023年底前完成这些回购。股价在盘前交易中上涨4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a>&nbsp;</b>– <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a> rose 1.1% in the premarket after announcing that it added $12 billion to its share buyback program, bringing the total amount of its repurchase authority to $13.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">签证</a> </b>–<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">签证</a>盘前股价上涨1.1%，此前该公司宣布向其股票回购计划增加120亿美元，使其回购授权总额达到132亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SJM\">Smucker's</a> </b>– Smucker struck a deal to sell its natural beverage and grains businesses to private equity firm Nexus Capital Management for $110 million, with the food producer saying it wanted to focus more resources on its core brands.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SJM\">Smucker的</a></b>-Smucker达成协议，以1.1亿美元的价格将其天然饮料和谷物业务出售给私募股权公司Nexus Capital Management，这家食品生产商表示希望将更多资源集中在其核心品牌上。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgical</a> </b>– <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgical</a> was added to the “conviction buy” list at Goldman Sachs, which points to the company’s pending launch of a new surgical system. Shares added 1.2% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">直观手术</a></b>–<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">直观手术</a>被添加到高盛的“坚定买入”名单中，这表明该公司即将推出一种新的手术系统。盘前股价上涨1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T Inc</a> </b>– Morgan Stanley upgraded AT&amp;T to “overweight” from “equal-weight,” saying a recent slide by the stock creates an attractive risk-reward profile. The firm said there are several other key factors driving the upgrade, including the pending completion of the WarnerMedia/Discoverymerger. AT&amp;T gained 1.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T公司</a></b>-摩根士丹利将AT&amp;T的评级从“同等权重”上调至“跑赢大盘”，称该股近期的下滑创造了有吸引力的风险回报状况。该公司表示，还有其他几个关键因素推动了此次升级，包括WarnerMedia/Discovery合并即将完成。AT&amp;T在盘前交易中上涨1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOOF\">Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.</a> </b>– The pet products seller’s stock added 1.9% in the premarket after Needham began coverage with a “buy” rating. The firm feels Petco should outperform competitors in the pet category, given its presence in multiple channels including veterinary hospitals.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOOF\">Petco健康和保健公司。</a></b>-在Needham开始给予“买入”评级后，这家宠物产品销售商的股价在盘前上涨了1.9%。该公司认为，鉴于Petco在包括兽医医院在内的多个渠道中的存在，它应该会超越宠物类别的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify</a> </b>– The e-commerce platform operator rallied 2.9% in premarket trading after Evercore upgraded it to “outperform” from “in line.” Evercore noted that the stock is about 20% below its year highs and that the company represents a high-quality asset in terms of growth opportunities.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify</a></b>–Evercore将其评级从“持平”上调至“跑赢大盘”后，该电子商务平台运营商在盘前交易中上涨2.9%。Evercore指出，该股比年度高点低约20%，就增长机会而言，该公司代表着优质资产。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-16 21:01</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S.&nbsp;stock-index futures advanced Thursday morning after&nbsp;the market staged a U-turn&nbsp;the previous trading session, welcoming a Federal Reserve decision to ramp up the pace of its taper and leave interest rates unchanged — for now.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周四上午上涨，此前市场在前一交易日出现180度大转弯，欢迎美联储决定加快缩减规模并暂时维持利率不变。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 204 points, or 0.57%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 31.25 points, or 0.66%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 115.25 points, or 0.71%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e8a71c62338c2a045263d40bb9c86e4\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"368\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">With the Fed giving markets a breather Wednesday, traders will turn their Thursday to&nbsp;fresh Labor Department data on initial weekly jobless claims. First-time unemployment filings are expected to reflect a slight increase after&nbsp;last’s 52-week low.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:00，道指e-mini上涨204点，涨幅0.57%，标普500 e-mini上涨31.25点，涨幅0.66%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨115.25点，涨幅0.71%。随着美联储周三给市场喘息的机会，交易员将在周四转向劳工部关于每周首次申请失业救济人数的最新数据。首次申请失业救济人数预计将在去年创下52周低点后小幅上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: </b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a></b> – Delta rose 2.3% in the premarket after projecting a $200 million fourth-quarter profit. Consensus forecasts were predicting a quarterly loss for Delta, but the carrier said it is seeing strong holiday demand and it is on the path toward exceeding pre-pandemic profit levels.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a></b>-达美航空预计第四季度利润为2亿美元，盘前上涨2.3%。市场普遍预测达美航空将出现季度亏损，但该航空公司表示，假期需求强劲，利润有望超过大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACN\">Accenture PLC</a></b> – The consulting firm’s shares surged 6.7% in the premarket after it reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter, and raised its earnings guidance for fiscal 2022. Revenue rose by more than 20% across the four biggest industry groups in Accenture’s customer base.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACN\">埃森哲公司</a></b>-该咨询公司公布最新季度利润和收入好于预期，并上调2022财年盈利指引后，其股价盘前飙升6.7%。埃森哲客户群中四个最大行业集团的收入增长了20%以上。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGN\">Regeneron Pharmaceuticals</a></b> – The drugmaker’s shares declined 1% in premarket trading after it said its antibody cocktail loses potency against the omicron Covid-19 variant. Regeneron did say that the cocktail is effective against the delta variant.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/REGN\">再生元制药</a></b>-该制药商表示其抗体鸡尾酒对奥密克戎Covid-19变种失去效力后，其股价在盘前交易中下跌1%。再生元确实说过这种鸡尾酒对德尔塔变异毒株有效。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEN\">Lennar</a></b> – Lennar reported quarterly earnings of $3.91 per share, below the $4.15 consensus estimate, and the homebuilder’s revenue also fell short of forecasts. Lennar was hurt by higher lumber costs as well as increased labor costs and shortages of raw materials, resulting in delayed home deliveries. Lennar tumbled 6.3% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LEN\">伦纳尔</a></b>-Lennar公布的季度收益为每股3.91美元，低于市场普遍预期的4.15美元，该住宅建筑商的收入也低于预期。Lennar受到木材成本上涨、劳动力成本增加和原材料短缺的影响，导致送货上门延迟。Lennar在盘前下跌6.3%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVS\">Novartis AG</a></b> – Novartis launched a new share buyback program worth up to $15 billion, with the drug maker planning to complete those repurchases by the end of 2023. Shares jumped 4% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVS\">诺华公司</a></b>-诺华启动了一项价值高达150亿美元的新股票回购计划，该制药商计划在2023年底前完成这些回购。股价在盘前交易中上涨4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a>&nbsp;</b>– <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a> rose 1.1% in the premarket after announcing that it added $12 billion to its share buyback program, bringing the total amount of its repurchase authority to $13.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">签证</a> </b>–<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">签证</a>盘前股价上涨1.1%，此前该公司宣布向其股票回购计划增加120亿美元，使其回购授权总额达到132亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SJM\">Smucker's</a> </b>– Smucker struck a deal to sell its natural beverage and grains businesses to private equity firm Nexus Capital Management for $110 million, with the food producer saying it wanted to focus more resources on its core brands.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SJM\">Smucker的</a></b>-Smucker达成协议，以1.1亿美元的价格将其天然饮料和谷物业务出售给私募股权公司Nexus Capital Management，这家食品生产商表示希望将更多资源集中在其核心品牌上。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgical</a> </b>– <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">Intuitive Surgical</a> was added to the “conviction buy” list at Goldman Sachs, which points to the company’s pending launch of a new surgical system. Shares added 1.2% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">直观手术</a></b>–<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISRG\">直观手术</a>被添加到高盛的“坚定买入”名单中，这表明该公司即将推出一种新的手术系统。盘前股价上涨1.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T Inc</a> </b>– Morgan Stanley upgraded AT&amp;T to “overweight” from “equal-weight,” saying a recent slide by the stock creates an attractive risk-reward profile. The firm said there are several other key factors driving the upgrade, including the pending completion of the WarnerMedia/Discoverymerger. AT&amp;T gained 1.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">AT&amp;T公司</a></b>-摩根士丹利将AT&amp;T的评级从“同等权重”上调至“跑赢大盘”，称该股近期的下滑创造了有吸引力的风险回报状况。该公司表示，还有其他几个关键因素推动了此次升级，包括WarnerMedia/Discovery合并即将完成。AT&amp;T在盘前交易中上涨1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOOF\">Petco Health and Wellness Company, Inc.</a> </b>– The pet products seller’s stock added 1.9% in the premarket after Needham began coverage with a “buy” rating. The firm feels Petco should outperform competitors in the pet category, given its presence in multiple channels including veterinary hospitals.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WOOF\">Petco健康和保健公司。</a></b>-在Needham开始给予“买入”评级后，这家宠物产品销售商的股价在盘前上涨了1.9%。该公司认为，鉴于Petco在包括兽医医院在内的多个渠道中的存在，它应该会超越宠物类别的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify</a> </b>– The e-commerce platform operator rallied 2.9% in premarket trading after Evercore upgraded it to “outperform” from “in line.” Evercore noted that the stock is about 20% below its year highs and that the company represents a high-quality asset in terms of growth opportunities.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SHOP\">Shopify</a></b>–Evercore将其评级从“持平”上调至“跑赢大盘”后，该电子商务平台运营商在盘前交易中上涨2.9%。Evercore指出，该股比年度高点低约20%，就增长机会而言，该公司代表着优质资产。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142996286","content_text":"U.S. stock-index futures advanced Thursday morning after the market staged a U-turn the previous trading session, welcoming a Federal Reserve decision to ramp up the pace of its taper and leave interest rates unchanged — for now.\nAt 8:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 204 points, or 0.57%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 31.25 points, or 0.66%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 115.25 points, or 0.71%.With the Fed giving markets a breather Wednesday, traders will turn their Thursday to fresh Labor Department data on initial weekly jobless claims. First-time unemployment filings are expected to reflect a slight increase after last’s 52-week low.\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket: \nDelta Air Lines – Delta rose 2.3% in the premarket after projecting a $200 million fourth-quarter profit. Consensus forecasts were predicting a quarterly loss for Delta, but the carrier said it is seeing strong holiday demand and it is on the path toward exceeding pre-pandemic profit levels.\nAccenture PLC – The consulting firm’s shares surged 6.7% in the premarket after it reported better-than-expected profit and revenue for its latest quarter, and raised its earnings guidance for fiscal 2022. Revenue rose by more than 20% across the four biggest industry groups in Accenture’s customer base.\nRegeneron Pharmaceuticals – The drugmaker’s shares declined 1% in premarket trading after it said its antibody cocktail loses potency against the omicron Covid-19 variant. Regeneron did say that the cocktail is effective against the delta variant.\nLennar – Lennar reported quarterly earnings of $3.91 per share, below the $4.15 consensus estimate, and the homebuilder’s revenue also fell short of forecasts. Lennar was hurt by higher lumber costs as well as increased labor costs and shortages of raw materials, resulting in delayed home deliveries. Lennar tumbled 6.3% in premarket action.\nNovartis AG – Novartis launched a new share buyback program worth up to $15 billion, with the drug maker planning to complete those repurchases by the end of 2023. Shares jumped 4% in premarket trading.\nVisa – Visa rose 1.1% in the premarket after announcing that it added $12 billion to its share buyback program, bringing the total amount of its repurchase authority to $13.2 billion.\nSmucker's – Smucker struck a deal to sell its natural beverage and grains businesses to private equity firm Nexus Capital Management for $110 million, with the food producer saying it wanted to focus more resources on its core brands.\nIntuitive Surgical – Intuitive Surgical was added to the “conviction buy” list at Goldman Sachs, which points to the company’s pending launch of a new surgical system. Shares added 1.2% in the premarket.\nAT&T Inc – Morgan Stanley upgraded AT&T to “overweight” from “equal-weight,” saying a recent slide by the stock creates an attractive risk-reward profile. The firm said there are several other key factors driving the upgrade, including the pending completion of the WarnerMedia/Discoverymerger. AT&T gained 1.5% in premarket trading.\nPetco Health and Wellness Company, Inc. – The pet products seller’s stock added 1.9% in the premarket after Needham began coverage with a “buy” rating. The firm feels Petco should outperform competitors in the pet category, given its presence in multiple channels including veterinary hospitals.\nShopify – The e-commerce platform operator rallied 2.9% in premarket trading after Evercore upgraded it to “outperform” from “in line.” Evercore noted that the stock is about 20% below its year highs and that the company represents a high-quality asset in terms of growth opportunities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853591894,"gmtCreate":1634822786409,"gmtModify":1634822786572,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Awesome&nbsp;","listText":"Awesome&nbsp;","text":"Awesome","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853591894","repostId":"1199242962","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199242962","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634819968,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199242962?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-21 20:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is A Volatility Storm Coming?<blockquote>波动风暴要来了？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199242962","media":"zerohedge","summary":"“\n Volatility often refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk related to the size of changes in a ","content":"<p>  “  <i>Volatility often refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk related to the&nbsp;size of changes in a security’s value. A higher volatility means that a security’s value can potentially be spread out over a larger range of values. This means that the price of the security can change dramatically over a short time period in either direction.”</i>– Investopedia  <b>Federal Reserve Bond Tapering &amp; Interest Rate Hikes Reduce Liquidity</b></p><p><blockquote>“<i>波动性通常是指与证券价值变化大小相关的不确定性或风险的大小。较高的波动性意味着证券的价值可能会分散到更大的价值范围内。这意味着证券的价格可能会在短时间内朝任一方向发生巨大变化。”</i>-投资百科<b>美联储债券缩减和加息减少流动性</b></blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve liquidity injections have bailed out the economy and equity markets for the last 18 months. And as a result, the bailout created a relatively low volatility environment for equity and bond markets.&nbsp; Will the announced withdrawal of Fed injections of $120B per month set up the monetary system for higher volatility? &nbsp;We see major economic forces combining in the intermediate future to create a possible ‘volatility storm’ driving valuations down.&nbsp;These economic forces include:</p><p><blockquote>过去18个月，美联储的流动性注入为经济和股市提供了救助。结果，救助为股票和债券市场创造了一个波动性相对较低的环境。美联储宣布撤回每月1200亿美元的注资是否会让货币体系面临更高的波动性？我们看到主要经济力量将在中期结合起来，可能会造成一场“波动风暴”，导致估值下降。这些经济力量包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Fed tapering</i></li>  <li><i>Interest rate hikes</i></li>  <li><i>Inflation</i></li>  <li><i>Labor wage increases</i>.</li> </ul> One of these macro factors is a challenge for monetary policymakers to mitigate damage to the financial system.&nbsp; But, a combination of these factors already building may overwhelm the monetary system. Further, markets are at historic high valuations today. But, market weaknesses and structure, along with valuations may create optimal conditions for a volatility storm.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>美联储缩减规模</i></li><li><i>加息</i></li><li><i>通货膨胀</i></li><li><i>劳动力工资上涨</i>.</li></ul>这些宏观因素之一是货币政策制定者减轻对金融体系损害的挑战。但是，这些因素的结合可能会压垮货币体系。此外，目前市场估值处于历史高位。但是，市场弱点和结构以及估值可能会为波动风暴创造最佳条件。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Taper Is Coming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Taper来了</b></blockquote></p><p> In September, the minutes of the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting noted that most participants agreed that tapering of treasury and mortgage bond purchases should begin in December, but analysts expect a formal announcement at the November Fed meeting.&nbsp; Accordingly, here is a forecast of how the projected tapering may occur into mid – June 2022.</p><p><blockquote>9月，联邦公开市场委员会9月会议纪要指出，大多数与会者同意应在12月开始缩减美国国债和抵押贷款债券购买，但分析师预计将在11月美联储会议上正式宣布。因此，这里对预计的缩减可能如何进行到2022年6月中旬的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46d7d94707e6fedad83d772a24c0293\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"294\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sources: Zero Hedge, Real Investment Advice – 10/15/21</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：零对冲，真实投资建议-10/15/21</blockquote></p><p> The financial markets enjoyed about $2.16T in liquidity injections resulting in a low volatility monetary environment for the S&amp;P 500 to bull market from a March 2020 low of 2191 to 4471. The impact of tapering is both real and psychological.&nbsp; However, some analysts argue that the real reduction in bond purchases will have a minimal effect on bond markets.&nbsp; Others note that while the actual withdrawal of treasury bond purchases in the $21.9T treasury market is small, the psychological aspects of tapering are significant.&nbsp; Investors will feel the Federal Reserve is not ‘covering their downside risk’ anymore.</p><p><blockquote>金融市场获得了约2.16 T美元的流动性注入，为标普500从2020年3月低点2191点至4471点的牛市带来了低波动性的货币环境。缩减购债规模的影响既是真实的，也是心理上的。然而，一些分析师认为，真正缩减购债规模对债券市场的影响微乎其微。另一些分析师指出，虽然21.9美元国债市场实际撤出的国债购买规模很小，但缩减购债规模的心理影响很大。投资者会觉得美联储不再“掩盖他们的下行风险”。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists see an increase in volatility due to the end of bond purchases and increasing interest rates. &nbsp;On Fox&nbsp;News, October 17th, Mohammed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz SE, said he sees increased volatility in the future.</p><p><blockquote>一些经济学家认为，由于债券购买结束和利率上升，波动性将会增加。在福克斯新闻频道，10月17日，安联首席经济顾问Mohammed El-Erian说，他认为未来的波动性会增加。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“I worry…that this wonderful world we’ve been living in of low volatility, everything going up, may come to a stop with higher volatility. If I were an investor, I would recognize that I’m riding a huge liquidity wave thanks to the Fed, but I would remember that waves tend to break at some point, so I would be very attentive</i>.”  <b>Inflation Surges to Decade Highs</b></p><p><blockquote><i>“我担心……我们生活在这个低波动性、一切都在上涨的美好世界，可能会随着更高的波动性而停止。如果我是一名投资者，我会认识到我正在乘着巨大的流动性浪潮感谢美联储，但我会记住波浪往往会在某个时候破裂，所以我会非常关注</i>.”<b>通胀飙升至十年高点</b></blockquote></p><p> The Consumer Price Index, CPI has moved above 5% on a year-over-year basis and it continues to rise.&nbsp; Housing rent prices are up by 17.9%, according to the Case – Shiller housing September index.&nbsp; Rent increases lead owner equivalent rent housing costs by five months based on a model by Macrobond and Nordea. This means that the 14% jump in existing home prices YoY is likely to extend into next year. &nbsp;&nbsp;Below is a chart of the CPI since 2017 and major components such as housing and gasoline.</p><p><blockquote>消费者价格指数CPI同比涨幅超过5%，并且还在继续上涨。根据Case-Shiller住房9月份指数，住房租金价格上涨了17.9%。根据Macrobond和Nordea的模型，租金使主要业主的当量租金住房成本增加了五个月。这意味着现房价格同比上涨14%可能会延续到明年。下面是2017年以来CPI以及住房和汽油等主要组成部分的图表。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42bb01bf2a1f52ca5608cb7d58333091\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sources: Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics – 10/13/21</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：彭博社，劳工统计局-10/13/21</blockquote></p><p> The record prices of key commodities continue to drive the price of manufactured goods higher. Oil prices settled at $85 per barrel, a three-year high on October 15th.&nbsp; Aluminum prices have increased by 40% in the last year. &nbsp;The metal price hit a 13 year high on the London Metal Exchange on October 15th&nbsp;as well.&nbsp; Copper prices surged by12% in the last week to the highest price since May 12th with a 74 year low in inventories.&nbsp; Demand for primary metals has soared due to power generation demand and the shift to green power infrastructure systems. If passed, the $1T Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill agreed upon in Congress will likely keep commodities prices high for a couple of years.</p><p><blockquote>关键大宗商品创纪录的价格继续推动制成品价格走高。油价10月15日收于每桶85美元，创三年新高。铝价最近一年上涨了40%。10月15日，伦敦金属交易所的金属价格也创下了13年来的新高。铜价上周飙升12%，至5月12日以来的最高价格，库存为74年来的最低水平。由于发电需求和向绿色电力基础设施系统的转变，对初级金属的需求飙升。如果获得通过，国会达成的1T美元两党基础设施法案可能会使大宗商品价格在几年内保持高位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>China Boosting Demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国提振需求</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Plus, China continues to make considerable investments in manufacturing and power generation projects keeping global demand high for commodities.&nbsp; Container shipping of commodities adds to their price.&nbsp; Container shipping rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles have increased by ten times in the last year. Computer chip shortages continue with the highest delays on record in chip shipments for September and auto manufacturers have reduced production on some models by 10 – 20% reducing car inventories at dealers and supporting high new and used car prices.&nbsp; Mitigating the surge in inflation would be declining consumer sentiment and buying, plus a possible slowdown in the global economy.&nbsp; Yet, wages may continue to climb, causing businesses to respond with price increases.</p><p><blockquote>此外，中国继续在制造业和发电项目上进行大量投资，保持了全球对大宗商品的高需求。大宗商品的集装箱运输推高了大宗商品的价格。去年，从上海到洛杉矶的集装箱运费上涨了10倍。计算机芯片短缺仍在继续，9月份芯片出货出现创纪录的最高延迟，汽车制造商将一些车型的产量减少了10-20%，减少了经销商的汽车库存，支撑了新车和二手车的高价格。缓解通胀飙升的将是消费者信心和购买能力下降，加上全球经济可能放缓。然而，工资可能会继续攀升，导致企业以涨价作为回应。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Increased Wages Drive Demand Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资上涨推动需求通胀</b></blockquote></p><p> Increases in wages will possibly sustain demand.&nbsp;&nbsp; Weekly earnings have soared to almost 10%.&nbsp; This chart shows weekly earnings back to 1983, the last time earnings increased at this high level.</p><p><blockquote>工资上涨可能会维持需求。周收入飙升至近10%。这张图表显示了1983年以来的每周收入，这是上一次收入以如此高的水平增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506983ffb8ae5539d73c2b38704eaaac\" tg-width=\"504\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: Bloomberg – 10/12/21</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：彭博社–10/12/21</blockquote></p><p> Worker earnings increases continue to be driven by a labor shortage. There are 4.3M jobs left to fill since the labor force participation rate high of February 2020. Critical factors in many jobs not being filled include: 3.6M retirees not returning to the labor force, lower-wage hospitality workers into higher-paying warehouse and delivery jobs, and 2.5M workers staying at home to care for Covid-19 relatives.&nbsp; The Wall Street Journal reports on October 14th&nbsp;the labor participation rate is at 61.6% versus 63.3% in February 2020. As a result, the labor force participation rate continues to be below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力短缺继续推动工人收入增长。自2020年2月劳动力参与率达到高点以来，仍有430万个工作岗位需要填补。许多工作岗位没有被填补的关键因素包括：360万退休人员没有重返劳动力市场，工资较低的酒店工人进入工资较高的仓库和送货工作，以及250万工人呆在家里照顾新冠肺炎的亲戚。《华尔街日报》10月14日报道称，劳动参与率为61.6%，而2020年2月为63.3%。因此，劳动力参与率继续低于大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f16eafc3d71caf12aa588f86a34aa92d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sources: Labor Department, The Wall Street Journal – 10/14/21</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：劳工部、华尔街日报-10/14/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Labor Shortages Aren’t Helping</b></p><p><blockquote><b>劳动力短缺无济于事</b></blockquote></p><p> The National Federation of Independent Businesses recently reported that their&nbsp;<i>Hard Jobs to Fill i</i>ndicator shows that wages are likely to continue to soar. The following chart shows how the labor shortage is fueling a rise in wages.</p><p><blockquote>全国独立企业联合会最近报告说，他们的<i>难以填补的工作</i>指标显示工资可能会继续飙升。下图显示了劳动力短缺是如何推动工资上涨的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1dc82681ef42b51af8dc4814cb5c16c\" tg-width=\"376\" tg-height=\"393\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sources: NFIB, The Daily Shot 10/12/21</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：NFIB，The Daily Shot 10/12/21</blockquote></p><p> In many industries, the labor shortage is forcing employers to hire key employees away from competitors.&nbsp; Accordingly, employers report in tight markets such as software programming offering 20% hire-on bonuses.&nbsp;&nbsp; The restaurant industry’s average wage now stands above $15 per hour to attract workers in this 400% yearly worker churn sector.&nbsp; Further, recruiters report that some workers seeing a tight labor market are evaluating work-life balance choices.&nbsp; Also, drop-out workers in some cases are taking vacations, pursuing hobbies, or just taking a break.&nbsp; Remote work-from-home options will continue to create tighter labor conditions for the foreseeable future.&nbsp; A September Wall Street Journal survey of 52 economists showed that 42% expect the economy to not recover to pre-pandemic workforce levels for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>在许多行业，劳动力短缺迫使雇主从竞争对手那里雇佣关键员工。因此，雇主报告说，在软件编程等紧张的市场中，提供20%的雇佣奖金。餐饮业的平均工资现在超过每小时15美元，以吸引这个每年400%员工流失的行业的工人。此外，招聘人员报告说，一些看到劳动力市场紧张的工人正在评估工作与生活的平衡选择。此外，在某些情况下，辍学的工人正在休假，追求爱好，或者只是休息一下。在可预见的未来，远程在家工作的选择将继续造成更紧张的劳动条件。《华尔街日报》9月份对52名经济学家的调查显示，42%的人预计未来几年经济不会恢复到疫情之前的劳动力水平。</blockquote></p><p> Next, let’s look at how weaknesses in the market can provide clues on a gathering volatility storm.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，让我们看看市场的弱点如何为正在聚集的波动风暴提供线索。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monthly, Weekly Time Frames Show Bearish Market Direction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>月度、每周时间框架显示看跌市场方向</b></blockquote></p><p> Brett Freeze, principal at&nbsp;Global Technical Analysis&nbsp;(GTA), uses a unique set of time frames matched with trend models to identify support and resistance levels. Markets behave in different ways based on different time periods and participants. For example, institutional investors tend to make long-term investments quarterly. GTA analysis reports on quarterly, monthly, weekly, and daily trends. The following chart shows ES futures contract prices are below Monthly and Weekly Trends. The model notes a one period or two-period move as below trend.&nbsp; When ES future prices make three consecutive period moves, a trend is indicated for that timeframe.</p><p><blockquote>全球技术分析(GTA)负责人Brett Freeze使用一组与趋势模型相匹配的独特时间框架来识别支撑位和阻力位。基于不同的时间段和参与者，市场以不同的方式表现。例如，机构投资者倾向于按季度进行长期投资。GTA分析报告季度、月度、每周和每日趋势。下图显示ES期货合约价格低于月度和周度趋势。该模型将一个周期或两个周期的波动记录为趋势下方。当ES期货价格连续三个周期波动时，就会显示出该时间段的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9ba427422a47c1b726adaf06be1ee40\" tg-width=\"284\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: Brett Freeze, Global Technical Analysis – 10/15/21</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Brett Freeze，全球技术分析–10/15/21</blockquote></p><p> Note: PQH = Previous Quarter High, PQL = Previous Quarter Low, PMH = Previous Month High, PML = Previous Month Low, PWH = Previous Weekly High, PML = Previous Weekly Low, PDH = Previous Daily High, PDL = Previous Daily Low</p><p><blockquote>注：PQH=上季度高点，PQL=上季度低点，PMH=上个月高点，PML=上个月低点，PWH=上个周高点，PML=上个周低点，PDH=上个日高点，PDL=上个日低点</blockquote></p><p> <b>Realized Volatility Is Relatively Low, Yet Implied Volatility Is Rising</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已实现波动率相对较低，但隐含波动率正在上升</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Realized volatility is the change in price between the daily closes of a stock, ETF, or financial instrument.&nbsp; The following chart from Lance Roberts and CNBC shows how price changes in the S&amp;P 500 have been above average but are still within a 2% daily range since the March 2020 SPX lows.</p><p><blockquote>已实现波动性是股票、ETF或金融工具每日收盘之间的价格变化。Lance Roberts和美国消费者新闻与商业频道的下图显示了自2020年3月SPX低点以来，标普500的价格变化一直高于平均水平，但仍在2%的每日范围内。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ace2a9235ff5f0e88cd9eebaeee2f0d4\" tg-width=\"340\" tg-height=\"202\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: Real Investment Advice – 10/6/21</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Real Investment Advice–10/6/21</blockquote></p><p> Realized volatility shows how market participants are actually driving market price swings by direct trading.&nbsp; The limited movement of realized volatility obscures the impact of implied volatility of markets.</p><p><blockquote>已实现波动率显示了市场参与者如何通过直接交易实际推动市场价格波动。已实现波动率的有限变动掩盖了市场隐含波动率的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Implied Volatility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>隐含波动率</b></blockquote></p><p> Implied volatility is the range of prices based on speculation of where a price may be for underlying security or index at a specific date. Overall implied volatility has been climbing the past few years.&nbsp; The Volatility Index (VIX) is an indicator of implied volatility. The Chicago Board Options Exchange developed the VIX as a real-time index representing market expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&amp;P 500 index (SPX). It is calculated based on the ratio of puts (an option to sell underlying security) to calls (an option to buy underlying security) for near-term (30 days or less) options contracts.</p><p><blockquote>隐含波动率是基于对特定日期标的证券或指数价格的推测而得出的价格范围。过去几年，整体隐含波动率一直在攀升。波动率指数（VIX）是隐含波动率的指标。芝加哥期权交易所开发了VIX作为一个实时指数，代表市场对标普500指数（SPX）近期价格变化相对强度的预期。它是根据近期（30天或更短时间）期权合约的看跌期权（出售标的证券的期权）与评级（购买标的证券的期权）的比率计算的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>VIX – Bullish or Bearish?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>VIX–看涨还是看跌？</b></blockquote></p><p> The lower the VIX index and the more calls to puts is considered bullish.&nbsp; Conversely, the more puts to calls driving and higher VIX is deemed to be bearish.&nbsp; The VIX uses put and call options set at specific strike price levels that traders speculate the SPX maybe, not the actual SPX index value. The VIX is one gauge of market sentiment on the direction of prices for the SPX.&nbsp; Over the past several years, the baseline VIX has been climbing as the SPX has rallied. &nbsp;Higher lows indicate growing anxiety about high valuations.&nbsp; The following monthly chart shows the VIX levels since 2014 with higher lows (red arrow) as it spikes at market lows like March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>VIX指数越低，看跌期权的评级越多，被认为是看涨的。相反，评级驱动的看跌期权越多，VIX越高，被认为是看跌的。VIX使用看跌期权和看涨期权期权，这些期权设置在交易者推测SPX的特定执行价格水平，而不是实际的SPX指数值。VIX是衡量SPX价格方向的市场情绪的一个指标。在过去的几年里，随着SPX的上涨，基准VIX一直在攀升。更高的低点表明对高估值的焦虑越来越大。下面的月度图表显示了自2014年以来的VIX水平，随着它在2020年3月等市场低点飙升，低点更高（红色箭头）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c0f760446a7141e4d4657f24c5fa84\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: Patrick Hill – 10/16/21</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：帕特里克·希尔–10/16/21</blockquote></p><p> The VIX reached a low of 9.51 in 2017 and today stands at 16.30 on October 15th as a rally continues<i>. &nbsp;The VIX reached a high of 53.54 at the SPX March 2020 decline. It would seem with higher lows that a higher spike is possible. Daily options market volume as of September is higher than the volume of underlying stocks. This means that</i><i><u>speculation on where the SPX level will be</u></i><i>&nbsp;is overtaking market flows.</i></p><p><blockquote>VIX在2017年触及9.51的低点，随着反弹的继续，今天于10月15日触及16.30<i>VIX在SPX 2020年3月下跌时达到53.54的高点。似乎低点越高，峰值就越高。截至9月份，每日期权市场成交量高于标的股票成交量。这意味着</i><i><u>对SPX水平的猜测</u></i><i>正在超越市场流量。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Options Levels Point to A Volatility Storm Zone – Below 4400</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期权水平指向波动风暴区——低于4400点</b></blockquote></p><p> Options analysts note last week’s bounce in S&amp;P 500 Index is likely due to traders selling put options at monthly expiration, which crushed implied volatility.&nbsp; The VIX indicator fell to 16.80 from 20. Dealers began setting up ‘short volatility positions and buying calls supporting the rise in market prices. SPX levels of open interest in puts and calls identify where there may be support or resistance to prices.</p><p><blockquote>期权分析师指出，上周标普500指数的反弹可能是由于交易员在每月到期时出售看跌期权，这压低了隐含波动率。VIX指标从20跌至16.80。交易商开始建立波动性空头头寸，买入支撑市场价格上涨的评级。SPX看跌期权和评级的未平仓合约水平确定了价格可能存在支撑或阻力的位置。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart shows a gamma pivot point at 4400.&nbsp; Gamma is the rate of change of the delta or sensitivity of the option price to a $1 change in the underlying stock price.&nbsp; It measures the rate at which dealers must adjust their hedged positions. Positive gamma is above 4400, where there are more calls than puts and traders are net-long options.&nbsp; As a stock price goes up, the dealer sells the stock and buys it as it goes down.&nbsp; Dealers dampen price changes in a positive gamma environment.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了4400的伽马支点。伽马是delta的变化率或期权价格对标的股票价格1美元变化的敏感度。它衡量交易商必须调整其对冲头寸的速度。正伽马高于4400，这里的评级多于看跌期权，交易者是净多头期权。当股价上涨时，交易商卖出股票，当股价下跌时买入。交易商在正伽马环境中抑制价格变化。</blockquote></p><p> Conversely, when a dealer is net short options, they must hedge by selling the stock as it goes down and buying the stock as price rises triggering increased volatility.&nbsp; Today, 4400 is the pivot point between positive and negative gamma. Below 4300, we added a Volatility Zone where a volatility storm may build. The chart shows total open interest with puts below the zero line and calls above, with current expiration darkly shaded.</p><p><blockquote>相反，当交易者是净空头期权时，他们必须通过在股票下跌时卖出股票，在价格上涨引发波动性增加时买入股票来对冲。今天，4400是正负伽马之间的支点。在4300点以下，我们增加了一个波动区，在那里可能会形成波动风暴。图表显示了未平仓合约总数，看跌期权低于零线，评级高于零线，当前到期日为深色阴影。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be725e07c06556189d424b4731d9f66c\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sources: SpotGamma.com and Patrick Hill – 10/15/21</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：SpotGamma.com和Patrick Hill–10/15/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Watch out Below 4400</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4400以下留意</b></blockquote></p><p> Brent Kochuba, a co-founder of SpotGamma, notes likely increased volatility below 4400<i>,</i></p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma联合创始人Brent Kochuba指出，低于4400点波动性可能会增加<i>,</i></blockquote></p><p>   <i>”&nbsp;We currently see fairly light put positions below 4400.&nbsp;This implies that traders may need to purchase put options on a break of 4400, which could in turn force options dealers to short futures. This could lead to dealers shorting into a down market,&nbsp;which increases volatility.”</i>  We have located where the volatility storm may develop. But, what factors might trigger a storm?</p><p><blockquote><i>“我们目前看到低于4400点的看跌头寸相当清淡。这意味着交易者可能需要在突破4400点时买入看跌期权，这反过来可能迫使期权交易商做空期货。这可能会导致交易商在下跌的市场中做空，从而增加波动性。”</i>我们已经找到了波动风暴可能发展的地方。但是，什么因素可能会引发风暴呢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Factors Triggering a Volatility Storm</b></p><p><blockquote><b>引发波动风暴的因素</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The critical triggering events will be Federal Reserve tapering and interest rate increases planned for 2022.&nbsp; The financial markets depend on high levels of liquidity, so any reduction in liquidity could act as a catalyst for a volatility storm.&nbsp; Other factors that may magnify a liquidity crunch include:</p><p><blockquote>关键的触发事件将是美联储缩减规模和计划于2022年加息。金融市场依赖于高水平的流动性，因此流动性的任何减少都可能成为波动风暴的催化剂。其他可能放大流动性紧缩的因素包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>The debt ceiling not being raised in December</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>12月债务上限不会提高</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Options hedgers overreach and can’t cover margin positions, triggering forced selling</p><p><blockquote><li>期权套期保值者过度扩张，无法弥补保证金头寸，引发强制抛售</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Inflation roaring further ahead beyond the Fed’s ability to control it, so the market loses confidence in the Fed</p><p><blockquote><li>通胀进一步飙升，超出了美联储的控制能力，因此市场对美联储失去了信心</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>The Fed raises interest rates higher and faster than the market expects</p><p><blockquote><li>美联储加息幅度比市场预期更高、更快</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Consumers quit spending, causing retail sales to drop, corporations sales fall, and stock buybacks end that were sustaining high market valuations</p><p><blockquote><li>消费者停止消费，导致零售额下降，企业销售额下降，维持高市场估值的股票回购结束</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>The economy goes into a recession as GDP drops, employment falls, and corporate valuations fall</p><p><blockquote><li>随着GDP下降、就业下降和企业估值下降，经济陷入衰退</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Any black swan event like the pandemic</p><p><blockquote><li>任何像大流行这样的黑天鹅事件</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> Any volatility storm as markets decline is likely to force analysts to shift from valuing stocks based on market speculation to actual GAAP earnings (not stock buyback inflated EPS), fundamentals, and related unused valuation tools.&nbsp; The TINA – ‘there is no alternative’ trading phenomenon would be over.&nbsp;&nbsp;<i>Investors will need to be mindful of the extreme volatility posed by a volatility storm. Accordingly, wild rallies and steep falls will require portfolio managers to sharpen their hedging and volatility strategies to maintain portfolio value</i>.</p><p><blockquote>随着市场下跌，任何波动性风暴都可能迫使分析师从基于市场投机的股票估值转向实际GAAP收益（而不是股票回购膨胀的每股收益）、基本面和相关未使用的估值工具。TINA——“别无选择”的交易现象将会结束。<i>投资者需要注意波动风暴带来的极端波动。因此，疯狂的上涨和急剧的下跌将要求投资组合经理加强他们的对冲和波动策略，以维持投资组合的价值</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is A Volatility Storm Coming?<blockquote>波动风暴要来了？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs A Volatility Storm Coming?<blockquote>波动风暴要来了？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-21 20:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  “  <i>Volatility often refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk related to the&nbsp;size of changes in a security’s value. A higher volatility means that a security’s value can potentially be spread out over a larger range of values. This means that the price of the security can change dramatically over a short time period in either direction.”</i>– Investopedia  <b>Federal Reserve Bond Tapering &amp; Interest Rate Hikes Reduce Liquidity</b></p><p><blockquote>“<i>波动性通常是指与证券价值变化大小相关的不确定性或风险的大小。较高的波动性意味着证券的价值可能会分散到更大的价值范围内。这意味着证券的价格可能会在短时间内朝任一方向发生巨大变化。”</i>-投资百科<b>美联储债券缩减和加息减少流动性</b></blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve liquidity injections have bailed out the economy and equity markets for the last 18 months. And as a result, the bailout created a relatively low volatility environment for equity and bond markets.&nbsp; Will the announced withdrawal of Fed injections of $120B per month set up the monetary system for higher volatility? &nbsp;We see major economic forces combining in the intermediate future to create a possible ‘volatility storm’ driving valuations down.&nbsp;These economic forces include:</p><p><blockquote>过去18个月，美联储的流动性注入为经济和股市提供了救助。结果，救助为股票和债券市场创造了一个波动性相对较低的环境。美联储宣布撤回每月1200亿美元的注资是否会让货币体系面临更高的波动性？我们看到主要经济力量将在中期结合起来，可能会造成一场“波动风暴”，导致估值下降。这些经济力量包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>Fed tapering</i></li>  <li><i>Interest rate hikes</i></li>  <li><i>Inflation</i></li>  <li><i>Labor wage increases</i>.</li> </ul> One of these macro factors is a challenge for monetary policymakers to mitigate damage to the financial system.&nbsp; But, a combination of these factors already building may overwhelm the monetary system. Further, markets are at historic high valuations today. But, market weaknesses and structure, along with valuations may create optimal conditions for a volatility storm.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>美联储缩减规模</i></li><li><i>加息</i></li><li><i>通货膨胀</i></li><li><i>劳动力工资上涨</i>.</li></ul>这些宏观因素之一是货币政策制定者减轻对金融体系损害的挑战。但是，这些因素的结合可能会压垮货币体系。此外，目前市场估值处于历史高位。但是，市场弱点和结构以及估值可能会为波动风暴创造最佳条件。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Taper Is Coming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Taper来了</b></blockquote></p><p> In September, the minutes of the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting noted that most participants agreed that tapering of treasury and mortgage bond purchases should begin in December, but analysts expect a formal announcement at the November Fed meeting.&nbsp; Accordingly, here is a forecast of how the projected tapering may occur into mid – June 2022.</p><p><blockquote>9月，联邦公开市场委员会9月会议纪要指出，大多数与会者同意应在12月开始缩减美国国债和抵押贷款债券购买，但分析师预计将在11月美联储会议上正式宣布。因此，这里对预计的缩减可能如何进行到2022年6月中旬的预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b46d7d94707e6fedad83d772a24c0293\" tg-width=\"478\" tg-height=\"294\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sources: Zero Hedge, Real Investment Advice – 10/15/21</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：零对冲，真实投资建议-10/15/21</blockquote></p><p> The financial markets enjoyed about $2.16T in liquidity injections resulting in a low volatility monetary environment for the S&amp;P 500 to bull market from a March 2020 low of 2191 to 4471. The impact of tapering is both real and psychological.&nbsp; However, some analysts argue that the real reduction in bond purchases will have a minimal effect on bond markets.&nbsp; Others note that while the actual withdrawal of treasury bond purchases in the $21.9T treasury market is small, the psychological aspects of tapering are significant.&nbsp; Investors will feel the Federal Reserve is not ‘covering their downside risk’ anymore.</p><p><blockquote>金融市场获得了约2.16 T美元的流动性注入，为标普500从2020年3月低点2191点至4471点的牛市带来了低波动性的货币环境。缩减购债规模的影响既是真实的，也是心理上的。然而，一些分析师认为，真正缩减购债规模对债券市场的影响微乎其微。另一些分析师指出，虽然21.9美元国债市场实际撤出的国债购买规模很小，但缩减购债规模的心理影响很大。投资者会觉得美联储不再“掩盖他们的下行风险”。</blockquote></p><p> Some economists see an increase in volatility due to the end of bond purchases and increasing interest rates. &nbsp;On Fox&nbsp;News, October 17th, Mohammed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz SE, said he sees increased volatility in the future.</p><p><blockquote>一些经济学家认为，由于债券购买结束和利率上升，波动性将会增加。在福克斯新闻频道，10月17日，安联首席经济顾问Mohammed El-Erian说，他认为未来的波动性会增加。</blockquote></p><p>   <i>“I worry…that this wonderful world we’ve been living in of low volatility, everything going up, may come to a stop with higher volatility. If I were an investor, I would recognize that I’m riding a huge liquidity wave thanks to the Fed, but I would remember that waves tend to break at some point, so I would be very attentive</i>.”  <b>Inflation Surges to Decade Highs</b></p><p><blockquote><i>“我担心……我们生活在这个低波动性、一切都在上涨的美好世界，可能会随着更高的波动性而停止。如果我是一名投资者，我会认识到我正在乘着巨大的流动性浪潮感谢美联储，但我会记住波浪往往会在某个时候破裂，所以我会非常关注</i>.”<b>通胀飙升至十年高点</b></blockquote></p><p> The Consumer Price Index, CPI has moved above 5% on a year-over-year basis and it continues to rise.&nbsp; Housing rent prices are up by 17.9%, according to the Case – Shiller housing September index.&nbsp; Rent increases lead owner equivalent rent housing costs by five months based on a model by Macrobond and Nordea. This means that the 14% jump in existing home prices YoY is likely to extend into next year. &nbsp;&nbsp;Below is a chart of the CPI since 2017 and major components such as housing and gasoline.</p><p><blockquote>消费者价格指数CPI同比涨幅超过5%，并且还在继续上涨。根据Case-Shiller住房9月份指数，住房租金价格上涨了17.9%。根据Macrobond和Nordea的模型，租金使主要业主的当量租金住房成本增加了五个月。这意味着现房价格同比上涨14%可能会延续到明年。下面是2017年以来CPI以及住房和汽油等主要组成部分的图表。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42bb01bf2a1f52ca5608cb7d58333091\" tg-width=\"624\" tg-height=\"300\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sources: Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics – 10/13/21</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：彭博社，劳工统计局-10/13/21</blockquote></p><p> The record prices of key commodities continue to drive the price of manufactured goods higher. Oil prices settled at $85 per barrel, a three-year high on October 15th.&nbsp; Aluminum prices have increased by 40% in the last year. &nbsp;The metal price hit a 13 year high on the London Metal Exchange on October 15th&nbsp;as well.&nbsp; Copper prices surged by12% in the last week to the highest price since May 12th with a 74 year low in inventories.&nbsp; Demand for primary metals has soared due to power generation demand and the shift to green power infrastructure systems. If passed, the $1T Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill agreed upon in Congress will likely keep commodities prices high for a couple of years.</p><p><blockquote>关键大宗商品创纪录的价格继续推动制成品价格走高。油价10月15日收于每桶85美元，创三年新高。铝价最近一年上涨了40%。10月15日，伦敦金属交易所的金属价格也创下了13年来的新高。铜价上周飙升12%，至5月12日以来的最高价格，库存为74年来的最低水平。由于发电需求和向绿色电力基础设施系统的转变，对初级金属的需求飙升。如果获得通过，国会达成的1T美元两党基础设施法案可能会使大宗商品价格在几年内保持高位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>China Boosting Demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>中国提振需求</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Plus, China continues to make considerable investments in manufacturing and power generation projects keeping global demand high for commodities.&nbsp; Container shipping of commodities adds to their price.&nbsp; Container shipping rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles have increased by ten times in the last year. Computer chip shortages continue with the highest delays on record in chip shipments for September and auto manufacturers have reduced production on some models by 10 – 20% reducing car inventories at dealers and supporting high new and used car prices.&nbsp; Mitigating the surge in inflation would be declining consumer sentiment and buying, plus a possible slowdown in the global economy.&nbsp; Yet, wages may continue to climb, causing businesses to respond with price increases.</p><p><blockquote>此外，中国继续在制造业和发电项目上进行大量投资，保持了全球对大宗商品的高需求。大宗商品的集装箱运输推高了大宗商品的价格。去年，从上海到洛杉矶的集装箱运费上涨了10倍。计算机芯片短缺仍在继续，9月份芯片出货出现创纪录的最高延迟，汽车制造商将一些车型的产量减少了10-20%，减少了经销商的汽车库存，支撑了新车和二手车的高价格。缓解通胀飙升的将是消费者信心和购买能力下降，加上全球经济可能放缓。然而，工资可能会继续攀升，导致企业以涨价作为回应。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Increased Wages Drive Demand Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>工资上涨推动需求通胀</b></blockquote></p><p> Increases in wages will possibly sustain demand.&nbsp;&nbsp; Weekly earnings have soared to almost 10%.&nbsp; This chart shows weekly earnings back to 1983, the last time earnings increased at this high level.</p><p><blockquote>工资上涨可能会维持需求。周收入飙升至近10%。这张图表显示了1983年以来的每周收入，这是上一次收入以如此高的水平增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/506983ffb8ae5539d73c2b38704eaaac\" tg-width=\"504\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: Bloomberg – 10/12/21</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：彭博社–10/12/21</blockquote></p><p> Worker earnings increases continue to be driven by a labor shortage. There are 4.3M jobs left to fill since the labor force participation rate high of February 2020. Critical factors in many jobs not being filled include: 3.6M retirees not returning to the labor force, lower-wage hospitality workers into higher-paying warehouse and delivery jobs, and 2.5M workers staying at home to care for Covid-19 relatives.&nbsp; The Wall Street Journal reports on October 14th&nbsp;the labor participation rate is at 61.6% versus 63.3% in February 2020. As a result, the labor force participation rate continues to be below pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力短缺继续推动工人收入增长。自2020年2月劳动力参与率达到高点以来，仍有430万个工作岗位需要填补。许多工作岗位没有被填补的关键因素包括：360万退休人员没有重返劳动力市场，工资较低的酒店工人进入工资较高的仓库和送货工作，以及250万工人呆在家里照顾新冠肺炎的亲戚。《华尔街日报》10月14日报道称，劳动参与率为61.6%，而2020年2月为63.3%。因此，劳动力参与率继续低于大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f16eafc3d71caf12aa588f86a34aa92d\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"741\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sources: Labor Department, The Wall Street Journal – 10/14/21</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：劳工部、华尔街日报-10/14/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Labor Shortages Aren’t Helping</b></p><p><blockquote><b>劳动力短缺无济于事</b></blockquote></p><p> The National Federation of Independent Businesses recently reported that their&nbsp;<i>Hard Jobs to Fill i</i>ndicator shows that wages are likely to continue to soar. The following chart shows how the labor shortage is fueling a rise in wages.</p><p><blockquote>全国独立企业联合会最近报告说，他们的<i>难以填补的工作</i>指标显示工资可能会继续飙升。下图显示了劳动力短缺是如何推动工资上涨的。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1dc82681ef42b51af8dc4814cb5c16c\" tg-width=\"376\" tg-height=\"393\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sources: NFIB, The Daily Shot 10/12/21</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：NFIB，The Daily Shot 10/12/21</blockquote></p><p> In many industries, the labor shortage is forcing employers to hire key employees away from competitors.&nbsp; Accordingly, employers report in tight markets such as software programming offering 20% hire-on bonuses.&nbsp;&nbsp; The restaurant industry’s average wage now stands above $15 per hour to attract workers in this 400% yearly worker churn sector.&nbsp; Further, recruiters report that some workers seeing a tight labor market are evaluating work-life balance choices.&nbsp; Also, drop-out workers in some cases are taking vacations, pursuing hobbies, or just taking a break.&nbsp; Remote work-from-home options will continue to create tighter labor conditions for the foreseeable future.&nbsp; A September Wall Street Journal survey of 52 economists showed that 42% expect the economy to not recover to pre-pandemic workforce levels for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>在许多行业，劳动力短缺迫使雇主从竞争对手那里雇佣关键员工。因此，雇主报告说，在软件编程等紧张的市场中，提供20%的雇佣奖金。餐饮业的平均工资现在超过每小时15美元，以吸引这个每年400%员工流失的行业的工人。此外，招聘人员报告说，一些看到劳动力市场紧张的工人正在评估工作与生活的平衡选择。此外，在某些情况下，辍学的工人正在休假，追求爱好，或者只是休息一下。在可预见的未来，远程在家工作的选择将继续造成更紧张的劳动条件。《华尔街日报》9月份对52名经济学家的调查显示，42%的人预计未来几年经济不会恢复到疫情之前的劳动力水平。</blockquote></p><p> Next, let’s look at how weaknesses in the market can provide clues on a gathering volatility storm.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，让我们看看市场的弱点如何为正在聚集的波动风暴提供线索。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monthly, Weekly Time Frames Show Bearish Market Direction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>月度、每周时间框架显示看跌市场方向</b></blockquote></p><p> Brett Freeze, principal at&nbsp;Global Technical Analysis&nbsp;(GTA), uses a unique set of time frames matched with trend models to identify support and resistance levels. Markets behave in different ways based on different time periods and participants. For example, institutional investors tend to make long-term investments quarterly. GTA analysis reports on quarterly, monthly, weekly, and daily trends. The following chart shows ES futures contract prices are below Monthly and Weekly Trends. The model notes a one period or two-period move as below trend.&nbsp; When ES future prices make three consecutive period moves, a trend is indicated for that timeframe.</p><p><blockquote>全球技术分析(GTA)负责人Brett Freeze使用一组与趋势模型相匹配的独特时间框架来识别支撑位和阻力位。基于不同的时间段和参与者，市场以不同的方式表现。例如，机构投资者倾向于按季度进行长期投资。GTA分析报告季度、月度、每周和每日趋势。下图显示ES期货合约价格低于月度和周度趋势。该模型将一个周期或两个周期的波动记录为趋势下方。当ES期货价格连续三个周期波动时，就会显示出该时间段的趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9ba427422a47c1b726adaf06be1ee40\" tg-width=\"284\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: Brett Freeze, Global Technical Analysis – 10/15/21</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Brett Freeze，全球技术分析–10/15/21</blockquote></p><p> Note: PQH = Previous Quarter High, PQL = Previous Quarter Low, PMH = Previous Month High, PML = Previous Month Low, PWH = Previous Weekly High, PML = Previous Weekly Low, PDH = Previous Daily High, PDL = Previous Daily Low</p><p><blockquote>注：PQH=上季度高点，PQL=上季度低点，PMH=上个月高点，PML=上个月低点，PWH=上个周高点，PML=上个周低点，PDH=上个日高点，PDL=上个日低点</blockquote></p><p> <b>Realized Volatility Is Relatively Low, Yet Implied Volatility Is Rising</b></p><p><blockquote><b>已实现波动率相对较低，但隐含波动率正在上升</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Realized volatility is the change in price between the daily closes of a stock, ETF, or financial instrument.&nbsp; The following chart from Lance Roberts and CNBC shows how price changes in the S&amp;P 500 have been above average but are still within a 2% daily range since the March 2020 SPX lows.</p><p><blockquote>已实现波动性是股票、ETF或金融工具每日收盘之间的价格变化。Lance Roberts和美国消费者新闻与商业频道的下图显示了自2020年3月SPX低点以来，标普500的价格变化一直高于平均水平，但仍在2%的每日范围内。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ace2a9235ff5f0e88cd9eebaeee2f0d4\" tg-width=\"340\" tg-height=\"202\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: Real Investment Advice – 10/6/21</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Real Investment Advice–10/6/21</blockquote></p><p> Realized volatility shows how market participants are actually driving market price swings by direct trading.&nbsp; The limited movement of realized volatility obscures the impact of implied volatility of markets.</p><p><blockquote>已实现波动率显示了市场参与者如何通过直接交易实际推动市场价格波动。已实现波动率的有限变动掩盖了市场隐含波动率的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Implied Volatility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>隐含波动率</b></blockquote></p><p> Implied volatility is the range of prices based on speculation of where a price may be for underlying security or index at a specific date. Overall implied volatility has been climbing the past few years.&nbsp; The Volatility Index (VIX) is an indicator of implied volatility. The Chicago Board Options Exchange developed the VIX as a real-time index representing market expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&amp;P 500 index (SPX). It is calculated based on the ratio of puts (an option to sell underlying security) to calls (an option to buy underlying security) for near-term (30 days or less) options contracts.</p><p><blockquote>隐含波动率是基于对特定日期标的证券或指数价格的推测而得出的价格范围。过去几年，整体隐含波动率一直在攀升。波动率指数（VIX）是隐含波动率的指标。芝加哥期权交易所开发了VIX作为一个实时指数，代表市场对标普500指数（SPX）近期价格变化相对强度的预期。它是根据近期（30天或更短时间）期权合约的看跌期权（出售标的证券的期权）与评级（购买标的证券的期权）的比率计算的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>VIX – Bullish or Bearish?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>VIX–看涨还是看跌？</b></blockquote></p><p> The lower the VIX index and the more calls to puts is considered bullish.&nbsp; Conversely, the more puts to calls driving and higher VIX is deemed to be bearish.&nbsp; The VIX uses put and call options set at specific strike price levels that traders speculate the SPX maybe, not the actual SPX index value. The VIX is one gauge of market sentiment on the direction of prices for the SPX.&nbsp; Over the past several years, the baseline VIX has been climbing as the SPX has rallied. &nbsp;Higher lows indicate growing anxiety about high valuations.&nbsp; The following monthly chart shows the VIX levels since 2014 with higher lows (red arrow) as it spikes at market lows like March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>VIX指数越低，看跌期权的评级越多，被认为是看涨的。相反，评级驱动的看跌期权越多，VIX越高，被认为是看跌的。VIX使用看跌期权和看涨期权期权，这些期权设置在交易者推测SPX的特定执行价格水平，而不是实际的SPX指数值。VIX是衡量SPX价格方向的市场情绪的一个指标。在过去的几年里，随着SPX的上涨，基准VIX一直在攀升。更高的低点表明对高估值的焦虑越来越大。下面的月度图表显示了自2014年以来的VIX水平，随着它在2020年3月等市场低点飙升，低点更高（红色箭头）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98c0f760446a7141e4d4657f24c5fa84\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Source: Patrick Hill – 10/16/21</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：帕特里克·希尔–10/16/21</blockquote></p><p> The VIX reached a low of 9.51 in 2017 and today stands at 16.30 on October 15th as a rally continues<i>. &nbsp;The VIX reached a high of 53.54 at the SPX March 2020 decline. It would seem with higher lows that a higher spike is possible. Daily options market volume as of September is higher than the volume of underlying stocks. This means that</i><i><u>speculation on where the SPX level will be</u></i><i>&nbsp;is overtaking market flows.</i></p><p><blockquote>VIX在2017年触及9.51的低点，随着反弹的继续，今天于10月15日触及16.30<i>VIX在SPX 2020年3月下跌时达到53.54的高点。似乎低点越高，峰值就越高。截至9月份，每日期权市场成交量高于标的股票成交量。这意味着</i><i><u>对SPX水平的猜测</u></i><i>正在超越市场流量。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Options Levels Point to A Volatility Storm Zone – Below 4400</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期权水平指向波动风暴区——低于4400点</b></blockquote></p><p> Options analysts note last week’s bounce in S&amp;P 500 Index is likely due to traders selling put options at monthly expiration, which crushed implied volatility.&nbsp; The VIX indicator fell to 16.80 from 20. Dealers began setting up ‘short volatility positions and buying calls supporting the rise in market prices. SPX levels of open interest in puts and calls identify where there may be support or resistance to prices.</p><p><blockquote>期权分析师指出，上周标普500指数的反弹可能是由于交易员在每月到期时出售看跌期权，这压低了隐含波动率。VIX指标从20跌至16.80。交易商开始建立波动性空头头寸，买入支撑市场价格上涨的评级。SPX看跌期权和评级的未平仓合约水平确定了价格可能存在支撑或阻力的位置。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart shows a gamma pivot point at 4400.&nbsp; Gamma is the rate of change of the delta or sensitivity of the option price to a $1 change in the underlying stock price.&nbsp; It measures the rate at which dealers must adjust their hedged positions. Positive gamma is above 4400, where there are more calls than puts and traders are net-long options.&nbsp; As a stock price goes up, the dealer sells the stock and buys it as it goes down.&nbsp; Dealers dampen price changes in a positive gamma environment.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了4400的伽马支点。伽马是delta的变化率或期权价格对标的股票价格1美元变化的敏感度。它衡量交易商必须调整其对冲头寸的速度。正伽马高于4400，这里的评级多于看跌期权，交易者是净多头期权。当股价上涨时，交易商卖出股票，当股价下跌时买入。交易商在正伽马环境中抑制价格变化。</blockquote></p><p> Conversely, when a dealer is net short options, they must hedge by selling the stock as it goes down and buying the stock as price rises triggering increased volatility.&nbsp; Today, 4400 is the pivot point between positive and negative gamma. Below 4300, we added a Volatility Zone where a volatility storm may build. The chart shows total open interest with puts below the zero line and calls above, with current expiration darkly shaded.</p><p><blockquote>相反，当交易者是净空头期权时，他们必须通过在股票下跌时卖出股票，在价格上涨引发波动性增加时买入股票来对冲。今天，4400是正负伽马之间的支点。在4300点以下，我们增加了一个波动区，在那里可能会形成波动风暴。图表显示了未平仓合约总数，看跌期权低于零线，评级高于零线，当前到期日为深色阴影。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be725e07c06556189d424b4731d9f66c\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Sources: SpotGamma.com and Patrick Hill – 10/15/21</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：SpotGamma.com和Patrick Hill–10/15/21</blockquote></p><p> <b>Watch out Below 4400</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4400以下留意</b></blockquote></p><p> Brent Kochuba, a co-founder of SpotGamma, notes likely increased volatility below 4400<i>,</i></p><p><blockquote>SpotGamma联合创始人Brent Kochuba指出，低于4400点波动性可能会增加<i>,</i></blockquote></p><p>   <i>”&nbsp;We currently see fairly light put positions below 4400.&nbsp;This implies that traders may need to purchase put options on a break of 4400, which could in turn force options dealers to short futures. This could lead to dealers shorting into a down market,&nbsp;which increases volatility.”</i>  We have located where the volatility storm may develop. But, what factors might trigger a storm?</p><p><blockquote><i>“我们目前看到低于4400点的看跌头寸相当清淡。这意味着交易者可能需要在突破4400点时买入看跌期权，这反过来可能迫使期权交易商做空期货。这可能会导致交易商在下跌的市场中做空，从而增加波动性。”</i>我们已经找到了波动风暴可能发展的地方。但是，什么因素可能会引发风暴呢？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Factors Triggering a Volatility Storm</b></p><p><blockquote><b>引发波动风暴的因素</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The critical triggering events will be Federal Reserve tapering and interest rate increases planned for 2022.&nbsp; The financial markets depend on high levels of liquidity, so any reduction in liquidity could act as a catalyst for a volatility storm.&nbsp; Other factors that may magnify a liquidity crunch include:</p><p><blockquote>关键的触发事件将是美联储缩减规模和计划于2022年加息。金融市场依赖于高水平的流动性，因此流动性的任何减少都可能成为波动风暴的催化剂。其他可能放大流动性紧缩的因素包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>The debt ceiling not being raised in December</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>12月债务上限不会提高</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Options hedgers overreach and can’t cover margin positions, triggering forced selling</p><p><blockquote><li>期权套期保值者过度扩张，无法弥补保证金头寸，引发强制抛售</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Inflation roaring further ahead beyond the Fed’s ability to control it, so the market loses confidence in the Fed</p><p><blockquote><li>通胀进一步飙升，超出了美联储的控制能力，因此市场对美联储失去了信心</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>The Fed raises interest rates higher and faster than the market expects</p><p><blockquote><li>美联储加息幅度比市场预期更高、更快</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Consumers quit spending, causing retail sales to drop, corporations sales fall, and stock buybacks end that were sustaining high market valuations</p><p><blockquote><li>消费者停止消费，导致零售额下降，企业销售额下降，维持高市场估值的股票回购结束</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>The economy goes into a recession as GDP drops, employment falls, and corporate valuations fall</p><p><blockquote><li>随着GDP下降、就业下降和企业估值下降，经济陷入衰退</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Any black swan event like the pandemic</p><p><blockquote><li>任何像大流行这样的黑天鹅事件</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ol> Any volatility storm as markets decline is likely to force analysts to shift from valuing stocks based on market speculation to actual GAAP earnings (not stock buyback inflated EPS), fundamentals, and related unused valuation tools.&nbsp; The TINA – ‘there is no alternative’ trading phenomenon would be over.&nbsp;&nbsp;<i>Investors will need to be mindful of the extreme volatility posed by a volatility storm. Accordingly, wild rallies and steep falls will require portfolio managers to sharpen their hedging and volatility strategies to maintain portfolio value</i>.</p><p><blockquote>随着市场下跌，任何波动性风暴都可能迫使分析师从基于市场投机的股票估值转向实际GAAP收益（而不是股票回购膨胀的每股收益）、基本面和相关未使用的估值工具。TINA——“别无选择”的交易现象将会结束。<i>投资者需要注意波动风暴带来的极端波动。因此，疯狂的上涨和急剧的下跌将要求投资组合经理加强他们的对冲和波动策略，以维持投资组合的价值</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/volatility-storm-coming\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/volatility-storm-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199242962","content_text":"“\n Volatility often refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk related to the size of changes in a security’s value. A higher volatility means that a security’s value can potentially be spread out over a larger range of values. This means that the price of the security can change dramatically over a short time period in either direction.”– Investopedia\n\nFederal Reserve Bond Tapering & Interest Rate Hikes Reduce Liquidity\nFederal Reserve liquidity injections have bailed out the economy and equity markets for the last 18 months. And as a result, the bailout created a relatively low volatility environment for equity and bond markets.  Will the announced withdrawal of Fed injections of $120B per month set up the monetary system for higher volatility?  We see major economic forces combining in the intermediate future to create a possible ‘volatility storm’ driving valuations down. These economic forces include:\n\nFed tapering\nInterest rate hikes\nInflation\nLabor wage increases.\n\nOne of these macro factors is a challenge for monetary policymakers to mitigate damage to the financial system.  But, a combination of these factors already building may overwhelm the monetary system. Further, markets are at historic high valuations today. But, market weaknesses and structure, along with valuations may create optimal conditions for a volatility storm.\nTaper Is Coming\nIn September, the minutes of the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting noted that most participants agreed that tapering of treasury and mortgage bond purchases should begin in December, but analysts expect a formal announcement at the November Fed meeting.  Accordingly, here is a forecast of how the projected tapering may occur into mid – June 2022.\n\nSources: Zero Hedge, Real Investment Advice – 10/15/21\nThe financial markets enjoyed about $2.16T in liquidity injections resulting in a low volatility monetary environment for the S&P 500 to bull market from a March 2020 low of 2191 to 4471. The impact of tapering is both real and psychological.  However, some analysts argue that the real reduction in bond purchases will have a minimal effect on bond markets.  Others note that while the actual withdrawal of treasury bond purchases in the $21.9T treasury market is small, the psychological aspects of tapering are significant.  Investors will feel the Federal Reserve is not ‘covering their downside risk’ anymore.\nSome economists see an increase in volatility due to the end of bond purchases and increasing interest rates.  On Fox News, October 17th, Mohammed El-Erian, Chief Economic Advisor at Allianz SE, said he sees increased volatility in the future.\n\n“I worry…that this wonderful world we’ve been living in of low volatility, everything going up, may come to a stop with higher volatility. If I were an investor, I would recognize that I’m riding a huge liquidity wave thanks to the Fed, but I would remember that waves tend to break at some point, so I would be very attentive.”\n\nInflation Surges to Decade Highs\nThe Consumer Price Index, CPI has moved above 5% on a year-over-year basis and it continues to rise.  Housing rent prices are up by 17.9%, according to the Case – Shiller housing September index.  Rent increases lead owner equivalent rent housing costs by five months based on a model by Macrobond and Nordea. This means that the 14% jump in existing home prices YoY is likely to extend into next year.   Below is a chart of the CPI since 2017 and major components such as housing and gasoline.\n\nSources: Bloomberg, Bureau of Labor Statistics – 10/13/21\nThe record prices of key commodities continue to drive the price of manufactured goods higher. Oil prices settled at $85 per barrel, a three-year high on October 15th.  Aluminum prices have increased by 40% in the last year.  The metal price hit a 13 year high on the London Metal Exchange on October 15th as well.  Copper prices surged by12% in the last week to the highest price since May 12th with a 74 year low in inventories.  Demand for primary metals has soared due to power generation demand and the shift to green power infrastructure systems. If passed, the $1T Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill agreed upon in Congress will likely keep commodities prices high for a couple of years.\nChina Boosting Demand\nPlus, China continues to make considerable investments in manufacturing and power generation projects keeping global demand high for commodities.  Container shipping of commodities adds to their price.  Container shipping rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles have increased by ten times in the last year. Computer chip shortages continue with the highest delays on record in chip shipments for September and auto manufacturers have reduced production on some models by 10 – 20% reducing car inventories at dealers and supporting high new and used car prices.  Mitigating the surge in inflation would be declining consumer sentiment and buying, plus a possible slowdown in the global economy.  Yet, wages may continue to climb, causing businesses to respond with price increases.\nIncreased Wages Drive Demand Inflation\nIncreases in wages will possibly sustain demand.   Weekly earnings have soared to almost 10%.  This chart shows weekly earnings back to 1983, the last time earnings increased at this high level.\n\nSource: Bloomberg – 10/12/21\nWorker earnings increases continue to be driven by a labor shortage. There are 4.3M jobs left to fill since the labor force participation rate high of February 2020. Critical factors in many jobs not being filled include: 3.6M retirees not returning to the labor force, lower-wage hospitality workers into higher-paying warehouse and delivery jobs, and 2.5M workers staying at home to care for Covid-19 relatives.  The Wall Street Journal reports on October 14th the labor participation rate is at 61.6% versus 63.3% in February 2020. As a result, the labor force participation rate continues to be below pre-pandemic levels.\n\nSources: Labor Department, The Wall Street Journal – 10/14/21\nLabor Shortages Aren’t Helping\nThe National Federation of Independent Businesses recently reported that their Hard Jobs to Fill indicator shows that wages are likely to continue to soar. The following chart shows how the labor shortage is fueling a rise in wages.\n\nSources: NFIB, The Daily Shot 10/12/21\nIn many industries, the labor shortage is forcing employers to hire key employees away from competitors.  Accordingly, employers report in tight markets such as software programming offering 20% hire-on bonuses.   The restaurant industry’s average wage now stands above $15 per hour to attract workers in this 400% yearly worker churn sector.  Further, recruiters report that some workers seeing a tight labor market are evaluating work-life balance choices.  Also, drop-out workers in some cases are taking vacations, pursuing hobbies, or just taking a break.  Remote work-from-home options will continue to create tighter labor conditions for the foreseeable future.  A September Wall Street Journal survey of 52 economists showed that 42% expect the economy to not recover to pre-pandemic workforce levels for years to come.\nNext, let’s look at how weaknesses in the market can provide clues on a gathering volatility storm.\nMonthly, Weekly Time Frames Show Bearish Market Direction\nBrett Freeze, principal at Global Technical Analysis (GTA), uses a unique set of time frames matched with trend models to identify support and resistance levels. Markets behave in different ways based on different time periods and participants. For example, institutional investors tend to make long-term investments quarterly. GTA analysis reports on quarterly, monthly, weekly, and daily trends. The following chart shows ES futures contract prices are below Monthly and Weekly Trends. The model notes a one period or two-period move as below trend.  When ES future prices make three consecutive period moves, a trend is indicated for that timeframe.\n\nSource: Brett Freeze, Global Technical Analysis – 10/15/21\nNote: PQH = Previous Quarter High, PQL = Previous Quarter Low, PMH = Previous Month High, PML = Previous Month Low, PWH = Previous Weekly High, PML = Previous Weekly Low, PDH = Previous Daily High, PDL = Previous Daily Low\nRealized Volatility Is Relatively Low, Yet Implied Volatility Is Rising\nRealized volatility is the change in price between the daily closes of a stock, ETF, or financial instrument.  The following chart from Lance Roberts and CNBC shows how price changes in the S&P 500 have been above average but are still within a 2% daily range since the March 2020 SPX lows.\n\nSource: Real Investment Advice – 10/6/21\nRealized volatility shows how market participants are actually driving market price swings by direct trading.  The limited movement of realized volatility obscures the impact of implied volatility of markets.\nImplied Volatility\nImplied volatility is the range of prices based on speculation of where a price may be for underlying security or index at a specific date. Overall implied volatility has been climbing the past few years.  The Volatility Index (VIX) is an indicator of implied volatility. The Chicago Board Options Exchange developed the VIX as a real-time index representing market expectations for the relative strength of near-term price changes of the S&P 500 index (SPX). It is calculated based on the ratio of puts (an option to sell underlying security) to calls (an option to buy underlying security) for near-term (30 days or less) options contracts.\nVIX – Bullish or Bearish?\nThe lower the VIX index and the more calls to puts is considered bullish.  Conversely, the more puts to calls driving and higher VIX is deemed to be bearish.  The VIX uses put and call options set at specific strike price levels that traders speculate the SPX maybe, not the actual SPX index value. The VIX is one gauge of market sentiment on the direction of prices for the SPX.  Over the past several years, the baseline VIX has been climbing as the SPX has rallied.  Higher lows indicate growing anxiety about high valuations.  The following monthly chart shows the VIX levels since 2014 with higher lows (red arrow) as it spikes at market lows like March 2020.\n\nSource: Patrick Hill – 10/16/21\nThe VIX reached a low of 9.51 in 2017 and today stands at 16.30 on October 15th as a rally continues.  The VIX reached a high of 53.54 at the SPX March 2020 decline. It would seem with higher lows that a higher spike is possible. Daily options market volume as of September is higher than the volume of underlying stocks. This means thatspeculation on where the SPX level will be is overtaking market flows.\nOptions Levels Point to A Volatility Storm Zone – Below 4400\nOptions analysts note last week’s bounce in S&P 500 Index is likely due to traders selling put options at monthly expiration, which crushed implied volatility.  The VIX indicator fell to 16.80 from 20. Dealers began setting up ‘short volatility positions and buying calls supporting the rise in market prices. SPX levels of open interest in puts and calls identify where there may be support or resistance to prices.\nThe following chart shows a gamma pivot point at 4400.  Gamma is the rate of change of the delta or sensitivity of the option price to a $1 change in the underlying stock price.  It measures the rate at which dealers must adjust their hedged positions. Positive gamma is above 4400, where there are more calls than puts and traders are net-long options.  As a stock price goes up, the dealer sells the stock and buys it as it goes down.  Dealers dampen price changes in a positive gamma environment.\nConversely, when a dealer is net short options, they must hedge by selling the stock as it goes down and buying the stock as price rises triggering increased volatility.  Today, 4400 is the pivot point between positive and negative gamma. Below 4300, we added a Volatility Zone where a volatility storm may build. The chart shows total open interest with puts below the zero line and calls above, with current expiration darkly shaded.\n\nSources: SpotGamma.com and Patrick Hill – 10/15/21\nWatch out Below 4400\nBrent Kochuba, a co-founder of SpotGamma, notes likely increased volatility below 4400,\n\n” We currently see fairly light put positions below 4400. This implies that traders may need to purchase put options on a break of 4400, which could in turn force options dealers to short futures. This could lead to dealers shorting into a down market, which increases volatility.”\n\nWe have located where the volatility storm may develop. But, what factors might trigger a storm?\nFactors Triggering a Volatility Storm\nThe critical triggering events will be Federal Reserve tapering and interest rate increases planned for 2022.  The financial markets depend on high levels of liquidity, so any reduction in liquidity could act as a catalyst for a volatility storm.  Other factors that may magnify a liquidity crunch include:\n\nThe debt ceiling not being raised in December\nOptions hedgers overreach and can’t cover margin positions, triggering forced selling\nInflation roaring further ahead beyond the Fed’s ability to control it, so the market loses confidence in the Fed\nThe Fed raises interest rates higher and faster than the market expects\nConsumers quit spending, causing retail sales to drop, corporations sales fall, and stock buybacks end that were sustaining high market valuations\nThe economy goes into a recession as GDP drops, employment falls, and corporate valuations fall\nAny black swan event like the pandemic\n\nAny volatility storm as markets decline is likely to force analysts to shift from valuing stocks based on market speculation to actual GAAP earnings (not stock buyback inflated EPS), fundamentals, and related unused valuation tools.  The TINA – ‘there is no alternative’ trading phenomenon would be over.  Investors will need to be mindful of the extreme volatility posed by a volatility storm. Accordingly, wild rallies and steep falls will require portfolio managers to sharpen their hedging and volatility strategies to maintain portfolio value.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826247503,"gmtCreate":1634030017721,"gmtModify":1634030017721,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dropp","listText":"Dropp","text":"Dropp","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826247503","repostId":"2174854361","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698933475,"gmtCreate":1640272868000,"gmtModify":1640273074137,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Goof&nbsp;","listText":"Goof&nbsp;","text":"Goof","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698933475","repostId":"1192623075","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192623075","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640269891,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192623075?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 22:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. adds Merck pill as 2nd easy-to-use drug against COVID-19<blockquote>美国将默克药丸作为第二种易于使用的抗COVID-19药物</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192623075","media":"SeattleTimes","summary":"U.S. health regulators on Thursday authorized the second pill against COVID-19, providing another ea","content":"<p>U.S. health regulators on Thursday authorized the second pill against COVID-19, providing another easy-to-use medication to battle the rising tide of omicron infections.</p><p><blockquote>美国卫生监管机构周四批准了第二种针对COVID-19的药物，提供了另一种易于使用的药物来对抗不断上升的奥密克戎感染浪潮。</blockquote></p><p> The Food and Drug Administration authorization of Merck’s molnupiravir comes one day after the agency cleared a competing drug from Pfizer. That pill, Paxlovid, is likely to become the first-choice treatment against the virus, thanks to its superior benefits and milder side effects.</p><p><blockquote>美国食品和药物管理局批准默克公司的molnupiravir的一天前，该机构批准了辉瑞公司的一种竞争药物。这种名为Paxlovid的药物很可能成为针对该病毒的首选治疗方法，因为它具有优越的益处和较温和的副作用。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, Merck’s pill is expected to have a smaller role against the pandemic than predicted just a few weeks ago. Its ability to head off severe COVID-19 is much smaller than initially announced and the drug label will warn of serious safety issues, including the potential for birth defects.</p><p><blockquote>因此，默克公司的药物预计对疫情的作用将比几周前预测的要小。它阻止严重新冠肺炎的能力比最初宣布的要小得多，药物标签将警告严重的安全问题，包括潜在的出生缺陷。</blockquote></p><p> The Food and Drug Administration authorized Merck’s drug for adults with early symptoms of COVID-19 who face the highest risks of hospitalization, including older people and those with conditions like obesity and heart disease. The U.K. first authorized the pill in early November.</p><p><blockquote>美国食品和药物管理局批准默克公司的药物用于患有COVID-19早期症状且住院风险最高的成年人，包括老年人以及患有肥胖症和心脏病等疾病的人。英国于11月初首次批准了该药物。</blockquote></p><p> Known as molnupiravir, the Merck drug will carry a warning against use during pregnancy. Women of childbearing age should use birth control during treatment and for a few days after while men should use birth control for at least three months after their final dose, the FDA said.</p><p><blockquote>默克公司的这种药物被称为molnupiravir，将带有禁止在怀孕期间使用的警告。FDA表示，育龄妇女应在治疗期间和治疗后几天内采取避孕措施，而男性应在最后一次给药后至少三个月内采取避孕措施。</blockquote></p><p> The restrictions were expected after an FDA advisory panel only narrowly endorsed the drug last month, warning that its use would have to be strictly tailored to patients who can benefit the most.</p><p><blockquote>FDA顾问小组上个月仅以微弱优势批准了该药物，并警告称其使用必须严格针对能够受益最大的患者，因此这些限制是意料之中的。</blockquote></p><p> The Pfizer pill works differently and doesn’t carry the same risks. Additionally, Pfizer’s drug was roughly three times more effective in testing, reducing hospitalization and death by nearly 90% among high-risk patients, compared with 30% for Merck’s.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞药丸的作用方式不同，也没有同样的风险。此外，辉瑞的药物在测试中的有效性大约是三倍，将高危患者的住院和死亡人数减少了近90%，而默克的药物减少了30%。</blockquote></p><p> Some experts question whether there will be much of a role for the Merck drug in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>一些专家质疑默克公司的药物在美国是否会发挥很大作用。</blockquote></p><p> “To the extent that there’s an ample supply of Pfizer’s pill, I think it won’t be used,” said Dr. Gregory Poland of the Mayo Clinic, referring to the Merck drug. “There would be no reason, given it has less efficacy and a higher risk of side effects.”</p><p><blockquote>梅奥诊所的格雷戈里·波兰博士在谈到默克公司的药物时说：“如果辉瑞公司的药物供应充足，我认为它不会被使用。”“没有理由，因为它的功效较低且副作用风险较高。”</blockquote></p><p> For now, the FDA decision provides another potential option against the virus that has killed more than 800,000 Americans, even as health officials brace for record-setting cases, hospitalizations and deaths driven by the omicron variant. Antiviral pills, including Merck’s, are expected to be effective against omicron because they don’t target the spike protein where most of the variant’s worrisome mutations reside.</p><p><blockquote>目前，FDA的决定为对抗已导致超过80万美国人死亡的病毒提供了另一种潜在选择，尽管卫生官员正在为奥密克戎变种导致的创纪录病例、住院和死亡做好准备。包括默克公司在内的抗病毒药物预计对奥密克戎病毒有效，因为它们不针对该变种大多数令人担忧的突变所在的刺突蛋白。</blockquote></p><p> The FDA based its decision on results showing nearly 7% of patients taking the drug ended up in the hospital and one died at the end of 30 days. That compared with 10% of patients hospitalized who were taking the placebo and nine deaths.</p><p><blockquote>FDA的决定是基于结果显示，近7%服用该药物的患者最终住院，其中一人在30天后死亡。相比之下，服用安慰剂的住院患者比例为10%，死亡人数为9人。</blockquote></p><p> Federal officials have agreed to purchase enough of the drug to treat 3.1 million people.</p><p><blockquote>联邦官员已同意购买足够治疗310万人的药物。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. will pay about $700 for each course of Merck’s drug, which requires patients to take four pills twice a day for five days. A review by Harvard University and King’s College London estimated it costs about $18 to make each 40-pill course of treatment.</p><p><blockquote>美国将为默克公司的每个疗程支付约700美元，该疗程要求患者每天两次服用四粒药丸，持续五天。哈佛大学和伦敦国王学院的一项审查估计，每个40粒药丸的疗程费用约为18美元。</blockquote></p><p> Merck’s drug inserts tiny errors into the coronavirus’ genetic code to slow its reproduction. That genetic effect has raised concerns that the drug could cause mutations in human fetuses and even spur more virulent strains of the virus. But FDA scientists said the variant risk is largely theoretical because people take the drug for such a short period of time.</p><p><blockquote>默克公司的药物在冠状病毒的遗传密码中插入微小错误，以减缓其繁殖。这种遗传效应引发了人们的担忧，即该药物可能会导致人类胎儿发生突变，甚至刺激更强的病毒株。但FDA科学家表示，变异风险很大程度上是理论上的，因为人们服用这种药物的时间很短。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1640271591192","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. adds Merck pill as 2nd easy-to-use drug against COVID-19<blockquote>美国将默克药丸作为第二种易于使用的抗COVID-19药物</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. adds Merck pill as 2nd easy-to-use drug against COVID-19<blockquote>美国将默克药丸作为第二种易于使用的抗COVID-19药物</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">SeattleTimes</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 22:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. health regulators on Thursday authorized the second pill against COVID-19, providing another easy-to-use medication to battle the rising tide of omicron infections.</p><p><blockquote>美国卫生监管机构周四批准了第二种针对COVID-19的药物，提供了另一种易于使用的药物来对抗不断上升的奥密克戎感染浪潮。</blockquote></p><p> The Food and Drug Administration authorization of Merck’s molnupiravir comes one day after the agency cleared a competing drug from Pfizer. That pill, Paxlovid, is likely to become the first-choice treatment against the virus, thanks to its superior benefits and milder side effects.</p><p><blockquote>美国食品和药物管理局批准默克公司的molnupiravir的一天前，该机构批准了辉瑞公司的一种竞争药物。这种名为Paxlovid的药物很可能成为针对该病毒的首选治疗方法，因为它具有优越的益处和较温和的副作用。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, Merck’s pill is expected to have a smaller role against the pandemic than predicted just a few weeks ago. Its ability to head off severe COVID-19 is much smaller than initially announced and the drug label will warn of serious safety issues, including the potential for birth defects.</p><p><blockquote>因此，默克公司的药物预计对疫情的作用将比几周前预测的要小。它阻止严重新冠肺炎的能力比最初宣布的要小得多，药物标签将警告严重的安全问题，包括潜在的出生缺陷。</blockquote></p><p> The Food and Drug Administration authorized Merck’s drug for adults with early symptoms of COVID-19 who face the highest risks of hospitalization, including older people and those with conditions like obesity and heart disease. The U.K. first authorized the pill in early November.</p><p><blockquote>美国食品和药物管理局批准默克公司的药物用于患有COVID-19早期症状且住院风险最高的成年人，包括老年人以及患有肥胖症和心脏病等疾病的人。英国于11月初首次批准了该药物。</blockquote></p><p> Known as molnupiravir, the Merck drug will carry a warning against use during pregnancy. Women of childbearing age should use birth control during treatment and for a few days after while men should use birth control for at least three months after their final dose, the FDA said.</p><p><blockquote>默克公司的这种药物被称为molnupiravir，将带有禁止在怀孕期间使用的警告。FDA表示，育龄妇女应在治疗期间和治疗后几天内采取避孕措施，而男性应在最后一次给药后至少三个月内采取避孕措施。</blockquote></p><p> The restrictions were expected after an FDA advisory panel only narrowly endorsed the drug last month, warning that its use would have to be strictly tailored to patients who can benefit the most.</p><p><blockquote>FDA顾问小组上个月仅以微弱优势批准了该药物，并警告称其使用必须严格针对能够受益最大的患者，因此这些限制是意料之中的。</blockquote></p><p> The Pfizer pill works differently and doesn’t carry the same risks. Additionally, Pfizer’s drug was roughly three times more effective in testing, reducing hospitalization and death by nearly 90% among high-risk patients, compared with 30% for Merck’s.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞药丸的作用方式不同，也没有同样的风险。此外，辉瑞的药物在测试中的有效性大约是三倍，将高危患者的住院和死亡人数减少了近90%，而默克的药物减少了30%。</blockquote></p><p> Some experts question whether there will be much of a role for the Merck drug in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>一些专家质疑默克公司的药物在美国是否会发挥很大作用。</blockquote></p><p> “To the extent that there’s an ample supply of Pfizer’s pill, I think it won’t be used,” said Dr. Gregory Poland of the Mayo Clinic, referring to the Merck drug. “There would be no reason, given it has less efficacy and a higher risk of side effects.”</p><p><blockquote>梅奥诊所的格雷戈里·波兰博士在谈到默克公司的药物时说：“如果辉瑞公司的药物供应充足，我认为它不会被使用。”“没有理由，因为它的功效较低且副作用风险较高。”</blockquote></p><p> For now, the FDA decision provides another potential option against the virus that has killed more than 800,000 Americans, even as health officials brace for record-setting cases, hospitalizations and deaths driven by the omicron variant. Antiviral pills, including Merck’s, are expected to be effective against omicron because they don’t target the spike protein where most of the variant’s worrisome mutations reside.</p><p><blockquote>目前，FDA的决定为对抗已导致超过80万美国人死亡的病毒提供了另一种潜在选择，尽管卫生官员正在为奥密克戎变种导致的创纪录病例、住院和死亡做好准备。包括默克公司在内的抗病毒药物预计对奥密克戎病毒有效，因为它们不针对该变种大多数令人担忧的突变所在的刺突蛋白。</blockquote></p><p> The FDA based its decision on results showing nearly 7% of patients taking the drug ended up in the hospital and one died at the end of 30 days. That compared with 10% of patients hospitalized who were taking the placebo and nine deaths.</p><p><blockquote>FDA的决定是基于结果显示，近7%服用该药物的患者最终住院，其中一人在30天后死亡。相比之下，服用安慰剂的住院患者比例为10%，死亡人数为9人。</blockquote></p><p> Federal officials have agreed to purchase enough of the drug to treat 3.1 million people.</p><p><blockquote>联邦官员已同意购买足够治疗310万人的药物。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. will pay about $700 for each course of Merck’s drug, which requires patients to take four pills twice a day for five days. A review by Harvard University and King’s College London estimated it costs about $18 to make each 40-pill course of treatment.</p><p><blockquote>美国将为默克公司的每个疗程支付约700美元，该疗程要求患者每天两次服用四粒药丸，持续五天。哈佛大学和伦敦国王学院的一项审查估计，每个40粒药丸的疗程费用约为18美元。</blockquote></p><p> Merck’s drug inserts tiny errors into the coronavirus’ genetic code to slow its reproduction. That genetic effect has raised concerns that the drug could cause mutations in human fetuses and even spur more virulent strains of the virus. But FDA scientists said the variant risk is largely theoretical because people take the drug for such a short period of time.</p><p><blockquote>默克公司的药物在冠状病毒的遗传密码中插入微小错误，以减缓其繁殖。这种遗传效应引发了人们的担忧，即该药物可能会导致人类胎儿发生突变，甚至刺激更强的病毒株。但FDA科学家表示，变异风险很大程度上是理论上的，因为人们服用这种药物的时间很短。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.seattletimes.com/business/us-adds-merck-pill-as-2nd-easy-to-use-drug-against-covid-19/\">SeattleTimes</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRK":"默沙东","PFE":"辉瑞"},"source_url":"https://www.seattletimes.com/business/us-adds-merck-pill-as-2nd-easy-to-use-drug-against-covid-19/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192623075","content_text":"U.S. health regulators on Thursday authorized the second pill against COVID-19, providing another easy-to-use medication to battle the rising tide of omicron infections.\nThe Food and Drug Administration authorization of Merck’s molnupiravir comes one day after the agency cleared a competing drug from Pfizer. That pill, Paxlovid, is likely to become the first-choice treatment against the virus, thanks to its superior benefits and milder side effects.\nAs a result, Merck’s pill is expected to have a smaller role against the pandemic than predicted just a few weeks ago. Its ability to head off severe COVID-19 is much smaller than initially announced and the drug label will warn of serious safety issues, including the potential for birth defects.\nThe Food and Drug Administration authorized Merck’s drug for adults with early symptoms of COVID-19 who face the highest risks of hospitalization, including older people and those with conditions like obesity and heart disease. The U.K. first authorized the pill in early November.\nKnown as molnupiravir, the Merck drug will carry a warning against use during pregnancy. Women of childbearing age should use birth control during treatment and for a few days after while men should use birth control for at least three months after their final dose, the FDA said.\nThe restrictions were expected after an FDA advisory panel only narrowly endorsed the drug last month, warning that its use would have to be strictly tailored to patients who can benefit the most.\nThe Pfizer pill works differently and doesn’t carry the same risks. Additionally, Pfizer’s drug was roughly three times more effective in testing, reducing hospitalization and death by nearly 90% among high-risk patients, compared with 30% for Merck’s.\nSome experts question whether there will be much of a role for the Merck drug in the U.S.\n“To the extent that there’s an ample supply of Pfizer’s pill, I think it won’t be used,” said Dr. Gregory Poland of the Mayo Clinic, referring to the Merck drug. “There would be no reason, given it has less efficacy and a higher risk of side effects.”\nFor now, the FDA decision provides another potential option against the virus that has killed more than 800,000 Americans, even as health officials brace for record-setting cases, hospitalizations and deaths driven by the omicron variant. Antiviral pills, including Merck’s, are expected to be effective against omicron because they don’t target the spike protein where most of the variant’s worrisome mutations reside.\nThe FDA based its decision on results showing nearly 7% of patients taking the drug ended up in the hospital and one died at the end of 30 days. That compared with 10% of patients hospitalized who were taking the placebo and nine deaths.\nFederal officials have agreed to purchase enough of the drug to treat 3.1 million people.\nThe U.S. will pay about $700 for each course of Merck’s drug, which requires patients to take four pills twice a day for five days. A review by Harvard University and King’s College London estimated it costs about $18 to make each 40-pill course of treatment.\nMerck’s drug inserts tiny errors into the coronavirus’ genetic code to slow its reproduction. That genetic effect has raised concerns that the drug could cause mutations in human fetuses and even spur more virulent strains of the virus. But FDA scientists said the variant risk is largely theoretical because people take the drug for such a short period of time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":0.9,"MRK":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2649,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601637959,"gmtCreate":1638521380980,"gmtModify":1638521380980,"author":{"id":"3586590970630142","authorId":"3586590970630142","name":"zero79","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18bdafe6e77141b002b8ed62dd5cc0e3","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586590970630142","idStr":"3586590970630142"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Rip","listText":"Rip","text":"Rip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601637959","repostId":"1155940411","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155940411","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638520977,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155940411?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 16:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"In his final warning, this stock trading wizard — who made big money in bear markets and crashes — called this market a bubble like no other<blockquote>在最后的警告中，这位在熊市和崩盘中赚了大钱的股票交易奇才称这个市场是独一无二的泡沫</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155940411","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Veteran trader Mark D. Cook, who passed away recently, closely monitored the market’s health and was","content":"<p>Veteran trader Mark D. Cook, who passed away recently, closely monitored the market’s health and was convinced that U.S. stocks are due for a major hit </p><p><blockquote>最近去世的资深交易员马克·D·库克密切关注市场的健康状况，并确信美国股市将遭受重大打击</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865d26c02bd3c70a229cd8062ec20b9b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"700\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Mark D. Cook</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>马克·D·库克</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Mark D. Cook, a veteran options trader who was featured in author Jack Schwager’s best-selling “Stock Market Wizards” book, passed away in late October. I had planned to speak with him to discuss his bearish views on the U.S. stock market, which grew more ominous each week and shared in his twice-daily market advisory service.</p><p><blockquote>马克·D·库克(Mark D.Cook)是一位资深期权交易员，曾出现在作家杰克·施瓦格(Jack Schwager)的畅销书《股市奇才》(Stock Market Wizards)中，于10月底去世。我原计划与他交谈，讨论他对美国股市的看跌观点，美国股市每周都变得更加不祥，并在他每天两次的市场咨询服务中分享。</blockquote></p><p> Cook was an old-school S&amp;P 500&nbsp;futures trader. He made his first million dollars in the wake of the October 1987 stock-market crash by loading up on put options before the downturn, thanks to the strength of a signal from the NYSE TICK indicator he closely followed.</p><p><blockquote>库克是一位老派的标普500期货交易员。1987年10月股市崩盘后，由于他密切关注的纽约证券交易所分笔成交点指标信号的强度，他在经济低迷之前买入了看跌期权，赚到了第一个100万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Cook had other big stock-trading successes, including a 563% audited annual return in 1992, followed by a 322% annual return in 1993. Cook is also known for anticipating the 2001 and 2008 U.S. stock market crashes (and made a small fortune betting against the market).</p><p><blockquote>库克还取得了其他巨大的股票交易成功，包括1992年经审计的年回报率为563%，随后1993年的年回报率为322%。库克还因预测2001年和2008年美国股市崩盘而闻名（并通过做空市场赚了一大笔钱）。</blockquote></p><p> In recent years, he predicted that the U.S. bull market which began in 2009 would meet a similar fate. He and I even collaborated on a book about bear markets, published in 2015. In our most recent conversation, Cook said he was convinced that this current bull market was on its last legs. He said it had gone on too long and gone up too high.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，他预测2009年开始的美国牛市也将遭遇类似的命运。他和我甚至合作了一本关于熊市的书，于2015年出版。在我们最近的谈话中，库克表示，他确信当前的牛市已经走到了尽头。他说它持续了太久，升得太高了。</blockquote></p><p> “Think of a vacant building that has a gas leak,” Cook once told me. “The gas has been leaking for a long time. The longer the gas leaks, the bigger the explosion. It will take a catalyst to trigger an explosion, but no one knows what is the trigger point. The longer the gas is in there and ignored, and forgotten, the greater the explosion.</p><p><blockquote>“想想一栋煤气泄漏的空置建筑，”库克曾经告诉我。“煤气泄漏已经很长时间了，煤气泄漏的时间越长，爆炸就越大，引发爆炸需要催化剂，但没有人知道触发点是什么，煤气在里面的时间越长，被忽视，被遗忘，爆炸就越大。</blockquote></p><p> “The stock market,” he said, “is like the vacant building.” When it blows, the result will be horrible. He expected the worst to hit this market.</p><p><blockquote>“股市，”他说，“就像空置的大楼。”当它吹起来的时候，结果会很恐怖。他预计这个市场会出现最坏的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Cook often said that his warnings were not meant to scare investors, but rather to help protect them when a bear market arrives. He was also flexible enough to turn bullish after a crash, which he successfully did after 2008.</p><p><blockquote>库克经常说，他的警告并不是为了吓唬投资者，而是为了在熊市到来时帮助保护他们。他也足够灵活，在崩盘后转向看涨，他在2008年后成功做到了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Yet by 2016, Cook had become infuriated by the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying spree and felt that financial markets should be left alone, without central bank interference. By this year, Cook was convinced that the U.S. market’s valuation had inflated into its biggest bubble ever — and when it popped it would devastate both the U.S. economy and investors’ portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到了2016年，库克对美联储的债券购买热潮感到愤怒，并认为金融市场应该不受央行干预。到今年，库克确信美国市场的估值已经膨胀到有史以来最大的泡沫——当泡沫破裂时，将摧毁美国经济和投资者的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Although it’s tricky to predict when a bear market is near, there are clues. Here are some of Cook’s key signals:</p><p><blockquote>尽管预测熊市何时临近很棘手，但还是有线索的。以下是库克的一些关键信号：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Watch how the S&amp;P 500 rallies</b>: Cook paid attention when S&amp;P 500 rallies were weak or failed. He said you can tell the strength of the market more by the way it rallies than the way it declines. He called them “one-day wonders,” meaning you may get a 1%or 2% rally in the S&amp;P 500 (or more) that didn’t carry over to the next day.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.观察标普500如何反弹</b>：当标普500反弹疲软或失败时，Cook会关注。他说，你可以更多地通过市场上涨的方式而不是下跌的方式来判断市场的强度。他称它们为“一日奇迹”，这意味着你可能会在标普500中获得1%或2%（或更多）的反弹，但不会延续到第二天。</blockquote></p><p> Even more alarming, if a strong early rally reverses direction by the end of the day, Cook saw it as an important warning sign. Typically, in a bull market, strong and healthy rallies continue not just for a day but for several consecutive days.</p><p><blockquote>更令人担忧的是，如果早期的强劲反弹在当天结束时逆转方向，库克认为这是一个重要的警告信号。通常，在牛市中，强劲而健康的反弹不仅会持续一天，还会持续连续几天。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The buy-on-the-dip strategy fails:</b> Buying-the-dip works brilliantly in a bull market, but it fails during a bear market. When the buy-the-dip trade is punished, Cook knew it was time to either switch strategies or risk getting mowed down.</p><p><blockquote><b>2、逢低买入策略失效：</b>逢低买入在牛市中非常有效，但在熊市中却失败了。当逢低买入交易受到惩罚时，库克知道是时候要么改变策略，要么冒着被砍掉的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Prices are always the last indicator to fall</b>: Cook often said that the public watches stock prices for clues of a bear market, but that prices are the last domino to fall. No one knows what causes a crash or bear market. The catalyst usually comes from a source that no one has foreseen, hitting a market that is already weak. Prices plunge and everyone realizes the market is in serious trouble. According to Cook, the clues were obvious weeks or even months earlier.</p><p><blockquote><b>3、价格永远是最后一个下跌的指标</b>：库克经常说，公众关注股价是为了寻找熊市的线索，但股价是最后倒下的多米诺骨牌。没有人知道是什么导致了崩盘或熊市。催化剂通常来自无人预见的来源，打击本已疲软的市场。价格暴跌，每个人都意识到市场陷入了严重的麻烦。根据库克的说法，线索在几周甚至几个月前就很明显了。</blockquote></p><p> Cook did not like market crashes because they killed volatility. He often said that crashes are not good for anyone, especially traders. Cook thrived on volatility to make money. He preferred an occasional 10% correction to a crash. He told me he made the most money during corrections and bear markets.</p><p><blockquote>库克不喜欢市场崩盘，因为它们会扼杀波动性。他经常说，崩盘对任何人都没有好处，尤其是交易者。库克靠波动赚钱。他更喜欢偶尔10%的修正，而不是崩盘。他告诉我，他在调整和熊市期间赚了最多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> It also bothered Cook that he made money while so many investors suffered. Short-sellers such as Cook are often despised and even blamed for market crashes. Cook had to deal with being called names and not being invited to share his views on typically bullish financial news shows.</p><p><blockquote>库克还感到困扰的是，他赚了钱，而如此多的投资者却遭受了损失。像库克这样的卖空者经常被鄙视，甚至被指责为市场崩盘的罪魁祸首。库克不得不应对被骂以及没有被邀请在通常看涨的财经新闻节目中分享他的观点的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s a list of some of the ways Cook was able to thrive during crashes and bear markets. Keep in mind that these strategies are primarily for traders:</p><p><blockquote>以下列出了库克在崩盘和熊市期间能够蓬勃发展的一些方式。请记住，这些策略主要适用于交易者：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol>  <li>Sell long positions and move into cash until the storm has passed.</li>  <li>Buy puts on the S&amp;P 500.</li>  <li>Buy inverse ETFs.</li>  <li>Short individual stocks.</li> </ol> Cook said that the most prudent strategy for many traders is to move into cash or sell stocks to a point where they’re comfortable. Moving to cash is not designed to make a profit but to protect your portfolio and also to be ready to take advantage of future investment opportunities.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>卖出多头头寸并转入现金，直到风暴过去。</li><li>在标普500上买入看跌期权。</li><li>购买反向ETF。</li><li>做空个股。</li></ol>库克表示，对于许多交易者来说，最谨慎的策略是转向现金或在他们感到舒适的程度上出售股票。转向现金并不是为了盈利，而是为了保护您的投资组合，并准备好利用未来的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> Cook said that you must know how much pain you can accept (i.e., risk tolerance). If you can handle a 30% or 40% downturn, then stay the course. If not, move to the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>库克说，你必须知道你能接受多少痛苦（即风险承受能力）。如果你能承受30%或40%的低迷，那就坚持到底。如果没有，就靠边站。</blockquote></p><p> Another key to surviving bear markets and crashes is diversification. If your portfolio is diversified, there is no reason to panic, which is what many people do when the market loses 20% or more.</p><p><blockquote>度过熊市和崩盘的另一个关键是多元化。如果你的投资组合是多元化的，就没有理由恐慌，这是许多人在市场损失20%或更多时所做的。</blockquote></p><p> Cook left other valuable nuggets of trading wisdom: “One thing that must be stressed,” he wrote, “is that bear markets are not bad. Think of corrections and bear markets as trading opportunities. There is a pause in buying and then an all-out run for the hills when the grizzly is on their heels. When a bear market arrives, people descend into irrational thinking and actions. It&nbsp;<i>always</i>&nbsp;happens.”</p><p><blockquote>库克还留下了其他宝贵的交易智慧：“有一点必须强调，”他写道，“熊市并不坏。将调整和熊市视为交易机会。买入会暂停，然后在灰熊紧随其后时全力以赴。当熊市到来时，人们会陷入非理性的思考和行动。它<i>一直</i>发生了。”</blockquote></p><p> He added: “Take the opportunity to learn about downtrending markets. You should also prepare for the next bull market that will emerge once the bear market ends. That’s when you can really do well. While trading on the short side involves good timing skills and experience, it’s easier to trade in a rising market.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道：“抓住机会了解下行市场。你还应该为熊市结束后将出现的下一个牛市做好准备。那是你真正能做得很好的时候。虽然做空交易涉及良好的时机技巧和经验，但在上涨市场中交易更容易。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>In his final warning, this stock trading wizard — who made big money in bear markets and crashes — called this market a bubble like no other<blockquote>在最后的警告中，这位在熊市和崩盘中赚了大钱的股票交易奇才称这个市场是独一无二的泡沫</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIn his final warning, this stock trading wizard — who made big money in bear markets and crashes — called this market a bubble like no other<blockquote>在最后的警告中，这位在熊市和崩盘中赚了大钱的股票交易奇才称这个市场是独一无二的泡沫</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-03 16:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Veteran trader Mark D. Cook, who passed away recently, closely monitored the market’s health and was convinced that U.S. stocks are due for a major hit </p><p><blockquote>最近去世的资深交易员马克·D·库克密切关注市场的健康状况，并确信美国股市将遭受重大打击</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865d26c02bd3c70a229cd8062ec20b9b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"700\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Mark D. Cook</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>马克·D·库克</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Mark D. Cook, a veteran options trader who was featured in author Jack Schwager’s best-selling “Stock Market Wizards” book, passed away in late October. I had planned to speak with him to discuss his bearish views on the U.S. stock market, which grew more ominous each week and shared in his twice-daily market advisory service.</p><p><blockquote>马克·D·库克(Mark D.Cook)是一位资深期权交易员，曾出现在作家杰克·施瓦格(Jack Schwager)的畅销书《股市奇才》(Stock Market Wizards)中，于10月底去世。我原计划与他交谈，讨论他对美国股市的看跌观点，美国股市每周都变得更加不祥，并在他每天两次的市场咨询服务中分享。</blockquote></p><p> Cook was an old-school S&amp;P 500&nbsp;futures trader. He made his first million dollars in the wake of the October 1987 stock-market crash by loading up on put options before the downturn, thanks to the strength of a signal from the NYSE TICK indicator he closely followed.</p><p><blockquote>库克是一位老派的标普500期货交易员。1987年10月股市崩盘后，由于他密切关注的纽约证券交易所分笔成交点指标信号的强度，他在经济低迷之前买入了看跌期权，赚到了第一个100万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Cook had other big stock-trading successes, including a 563% audited annual return in 1992, followed by a 322% annual return in 1993. Cook is also known for anticipating the 2001 and 2008 U.S. stock market crashes (and made a small fortune betting against the market).</p><p><blockquote>库克还取得了其他巨大的股票交易成功，包括1992年经审计的年回报率为563%，随后1993年的年回报率为322%。库克还因预测2001年和2008年美国股市崩盘而闻名（并通过做空市场赚了一大笔钱）。</blockquote></p><p> In recent years, he predicted that the U.S. bull market which began in 2009 would meet a similar fate. He and I even collaborated on a book about bear markets, published in 2015. In our most recent conversation, Cook said he was convinced that this current bull market was on its last legs. He said it had gone on too long and gone up too high.</p><p><blockquote>近年来，他预测2009年开始的美国牛市也将遭遇类似的命运。他和我甚至合作了一本关于熊市的书，于2015年出版。在我们最近的谈话中，库克表示，他确信当前的牛市已经走到了尽头。他说它持续了太久，升得太高了。</blockquote></p><p> “Think of a vacant building that has a gas leak,” Cook once told me. “The gas has been leaking for a long time. The longer the gas leaks, the bigger the explosion. It will take a catalyst to trigger an explosion, but no one knows what is the trigger point. The longer the gas is in there and ignored, and forgotten, the greater the explosion.</p><p><blockquote>“想想一栋煤气泄漏的空置建筑，”库克曾经告诉我。“煤气泄漏已经很长时间了，煤气泄漏的时间越长，爆炸就越大，引发爆炸需要催化剂，但没有人知道触发点是什么，煤气在里面的时间越长，被忽视，被遗忘，爆炸就越大。</blockquote></p><p> “The stock market,” he said, “is like the vacant building.” When it blows, the result will be horrible. He expected the worst to hit this market.</p><p><blockquote>“股市，”他说，“就像空置的大楼。”当它吹起来的时候，结果会很恐怖。他预计这个市场会出现最坏的情况。</blockquote></p><p> Cook often said that his warnings were not meant to scare investors, but rather to help protect them when a bear market arrives. He was also flexible enough to turn bullish after a crash, which he successfully did after 2008.</p><p><blockquote>库克经常说，他的警告并不是为了吓唬投资者，而是为了在熊市到来时帮助保护他们。他也足够灵活，在崩盘后转向看涨，他在2008年后成功做到了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Yet by 2016, Cook had become infuriated by the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying spree and felt that financial markets should be left alone, without central bank interference. By this year, Cook was convinced that the U.S. market’s valuation had inflated into its biggest bubble ever — and when it popped it would devastate both the U.S. economy and investors’ portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>然而，到了2016年，库克对美联储的债券购买热潮感到愤怒，并认为金融市场应该不受央行干预。到今年，库克确信美国市场的估值已经膨胀到有史以来最大的泡沫——当泡沫破裂时，将摧毁美国经济和投资者的投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Although it’s tricky to predict when a bear market is near, there are clues. Here are some of Cook’s key signals:</p><p><blockquote>尽管预测熊市何时临近很棘手，但还是有线索的。以下是库克的一些关键信号：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Watch how the S&amp;P 500 rallies</b>: Cook paid attention when S&amp;P 500 rallies were weak or failed. He said you can tell the strength of the market more by the way it rallies than the way it declines. He called them “one-day wonders,” meaning you may get a 1%or 2% rally in the S&amp;P 500 (or more) that didn’t carry over to the next day.</p><p><blockquote><b>1.观察标普500如何反弹</b>：当标普500反弹疲软或失败时，Cook会关注。他说，你可以更多地通过市场上涨的方式而不是下跌的方式来判断市场的强度。他称它们为“一日奇迹”，这意味着你可能会在标普500中获得1%或2%（或更多）的反弹，但不会延续到第二天。</blockquote></p><p> Even more alarming, if a strong early rally reverses direction by the end of the day, Cook saw it as an important warning sign. Typically, in a bull market, strong and healthy rallies continue not just for a day but for several consecutive days.</p><p><blockquote>更令人担忧的是，如果早期的强劲反弹在当天结束时逆转方向，库克认为这是一个重要的警告信号。通常，在牛市中，强劲而健康的反弹不仅会持续一天，还会持续连续几天。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The buy-on-the-dip strategy fails:</b> Buying-the-dip works brilliantly in a bull market, but it fails during a bear market. When the buy-the-dip trade is punished, Cook knew it was time to either switch strategies or risk getting mowed down.</p><p><blockquote><b>2、逢低买入策略失效：</b>逢低买入在牛市中非常有效，但在熊市中却失败了。当逢低买入交易受到惩罚时，库克知道是时候要么改变策略，要么冒着被砍掉的风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Prices are always the last indicator to fall</b>: Cook often said that the public watches stock prices for clues of a bear market, but that prices are the last domino to fall. No one knows what causes a crash or bear market. The catalyst usually comes from a source that no one has foreseen, hitting a market that is already weak. Prices plunge and everyone realizes the market is in serious trouble. According to Cook, the clues were obvious weeks or even months earlier.</p><p><blockquote><b>3、价格永远是最后一个下跌的指标</b>：库克经常说，公众关注股价是为了寻找熊市的线索，但股价是最后倒下的多米诺骨牌。没有人知道是什么导致了崩盘或熊市。催化剂通常来自无人预见的来源，打击本已疲软的市场。价格暴跌，每个人都意识到市场陷入了严重的麻烦。根据库克的说法，线索在几周甚至几个月前就很明显了。</blockquote></p><p> Cook did not like market crashes because they killed volatility. He often said that crashes are not good for anyone, especially traders. Cook thrived on volatility to make money. He preferred an occasional 10% correction to a crash. He told me he made the most money during corrections and bear markets.</p><p><blockquote>库克不喜欢市场崩盘，因为它们会扼杀波动性。他经常说，崩盘对任何人都没有好处，尤其是交易者。库克靠波动赚钱。他更喜欢偶尔10%的修正，而不是崩盘。他告诉我，他在调整和熊市期间赚了最多的钱。</blockquote></p><p> It also bothered Cook that he made money while so many investors suffered. Short-sellers such as Cook are often despised and even blamed for market crashes. Cook had to deal with being called names and not being invited to share his views on typically bullish financial news shows.</p><p><blockquote>库克还感到困扰的是，他赚了钱，而如此多的投资者却遭受了损失。像库克这样的卖空者经常被鄙视，甚至被指责为市场崩盘的罪魁祸首。库克不得不应对被骂以及没有被邀请在通常看涨的财经新闻节目中分享他的观点的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s a list of some of the ways Cook was able to thrive during crashes and bear markets. Keep in mind that these strategies are primarily for traders:</p><p><blockquote>以下列出了库克在崩盘和熊市期间能够蓬勃发展的一些方式。请记住，这些策略主要适用于交易者：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol>  <li>Sell long positions and move into cash until the storm has passed.</li>  <li>Buy puts on the S&amp;P 500.</li>  <li>Buy inverse ETFs.</li>  <li>Short individual stocks.</li> </ol> Cook said that the most prudent strategy for many traders is to move into cash or sell stocks to a point where they’re comfortable. Moving to cash is not designed to make a profit but to protect your portfolio and also to be ready to take advantage of future investment opportunities.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>卖出多头头寸并转入现金，直到风暴过去。</li><li>在标普500上买入看跌期权。</li><li>购买反向ETF。</li><li>做空个股。</li></ol>库克表示，对于许多交易者来说，最谨慎的策略是转向现金或在他们感到舒适的程度上出售股票。转向现金并不是为了盈利，而是为了保护您的投资组合，并准备好利用未来的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> Cook said that you must know how much pain you can accept (i.e., risk tolerance). If you can handle a 30% or 40% downturn, then stay the course. If not, move to the sidelines.</p><p><blockquote>库克说，你必须知道你能接受多少痛苦（即风险承受能力）。如果你能承受30%或40%的低迷，那就坚持到底。如果没有，就靠边站。</blockquote></p><p> Another key to surviving bear markets and crashes is diversification. If your portfolio is diversified, there is no reason to panic, which is what many people do when the market loses 20% or more.</p><p><blockquote>度过熊市和崩盘的另一个关键是多元化。如果你的投资组合是多元化的，就没有理由恐慌，这是许多人在市场损失20%或更多时所做的。</blockquote></p><p> Cook left other valuable nuggets of trading wisdom: “One thing that must be stressed,” he wrote, “is that bear markets are not bad. Think of corrections and bear markets as trading opportunities. There is a pause in buying and then an all-out run for the hills when the grizzly is on their heels. When a bear market arrives, people descend into irrational thinking and actions. It&nbsp;<i>always</i>&nbsp;happens.”</p><p><blockquote>库克还留下了其他宝贵的交易智慧：“有一点必须强调，”他写道，“熊市并不坏。将调整和熊市视为交易机会。买入会暂停，然后在灰熊紧随其后时全力以赴。当熊市到来时，人们会陷入非理性的思考和行动。它<i>一直</i>发生了。”</blockquote></p><p> He added: “Take the opportunity to learn about downtrending markets. You should also prepare for the next bull market that will emerge once the bear market ends. That’s when you can really do well. While trading on the short side involves good timing skills and experience, it’s easier to trade in a rising market.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道：“抓住机会了解下行市场。你还应该为熊市结束后将出现的下一个牛市做好准备。那是你真正能做得很好的时候。虽然做空交易涉及良好的时机技巧和经验，但在上涨市场中交易更容易。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-his-final-warning-this-stock-trading-wizard-who-made-big-money-in-bear-markets-and-crashes-called-this-market-a-bubble-like-no-other-11638434148?mod=hp_LATEST&adobe_mc=MCMID%3D03250748340802259633376614514522268876%7CMCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%2540AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1638520638\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/in-his-final-warning-this-stock-trading-wizard-who-made-big-money-in-bear-markets-and-crashes-called-this-market-a-bubble-like-no-other-11638434148?mod=hp_LATEST&adobe_mc=MCMID%3D03250748340802259633376614514522268876%7CMCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%2540AdobeOrg%7CTS%3D1638520638","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155940411","content_text":"Veteran trader Mark D. Cook, who passed away recently, closely monitored the market’s health and was convinced that U.S. stocks are due for a major hit \nMark D. Cook\n\nMark D. Cook, a veteran options trader who was featured in author Jack Schwager’s best-selling “Stock Market Wizards” book, passed away in late October. I had planned to speak with him to discuss his bearish views on the U.S. stock market, which grew more ominous each week and shared in his twice-daily market advisory service.\nCook was an old-school S&P 500 futures trader. He made his first million dollars in the wake of the October 1987 stock-market crash by loading up on put options before the downturn, thanks to the strength of a signal from the NYSE TICK indicator he closely followed.\nCook had other big stock-trading successes, including a 563% audited annual return in 1992, followed by a 322% annual return in 1993. Cook is also known for anticipating the 2001 and 2008 U.S. stock market crashes (and made a small fortune betting against the market).\nIn recent years, he predicted that the U.S. bull market which began in 2009 would meet a similar fate. He and I even collaborated on a book about bear markets, published in 2015. In our most recent conversation, Cook said he was convinced that this current bull market was on its last legs. He said it had gone on too long and gone up too high.\n“Think of a vacant building that has a gas leak,” Cook once told me. “The gas has been leaking for a long time. The longer the gas leaks, the bigger the explosion. It will take a catalyst to trigger an explosion, but no one knows what is the trigger point. The longer the gas is in there and ignored, and forgotten, the greater the explosion.\n“The stock market,” he said, “is like the vacant building.” When it blows, the result will be horrible. He expected the worst to hit this market.\nCook often said that his warnings were not meant to scare investors, but rather to help protect them when a bear market arrives. He was also flexible enough to turn bullish after a crash, which he successfully did after 2008.\nYet by 2016, Cook had become infuriated by the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying spree and felt that financial markets should be left alone, without central bank interference. By this year, Cook was convinced that the U.S. market’s valuation had inflated into its biggest bubble ever — and when it popped it would devastate both the U.S. economy and investors’ portfolios.\nAlthough it’s tricky to predict when a bear market is near, there are clues. Here are some of Cook’s key signals:\n1. Watch how the S&P 500 rallies: Cook paid attention when S&P 500 rallies were weak or failed. He said you can tell the strength of the market more by the way it rallies than the way it declines. He called them “one-day wonders,” meaning you may get a 1%or 2% rally in the S&P 500 (or more) that didn’t carry over to the next day.\nEven more alarming, if a strong early rally reverses direction by the end of the day, Cook saw it as an important warning sign. Typically, in a bull market, strong and healthy rallies continue not just for a day but for several consecutive days.\n2. The buy-on-the-dip strategy fails: Buying-the-dip works brilliantly in a bull market, but it fails during a bear market. When the buy-the-dip trade is punished, Cook knew it was time to either switch strategies or risk getting mowed down.\n3. Prices are always the last indicator to fall: Cook often said that the public watches stock prices for clues of a bear market, but that prices are the last domino to fall. No one knows what causes a crash or bear market. The catalyst usually comes from a source that no one has foreseen, hitting a market that is already weak. Prices plunge and everyone realizes the market is in serious trouble. According to Cook, the clues were obvious weeks or even months earlier.\nCook did not like market crashes because they killed volatility. He often said that crashes are not good for anyone, especially traders. Cook thrived on volatility to make money. He preferred an occasional 10% correction to a crash. He told me he made the most money during corrections and bear markets.\nIt also bothered Cook that he made money while so many investors suffered. Short-sellers such as Cook are often despised and even blamed for market crashes. Cook had to deal with being called names and not being invited to share his views on typically bullish financial news shows.\nHere’s a list of some of the ways Cook was able to thrive during crashes and bear markets. Keep in mind that these strategies are primarily for traders:\n\nSell long positions and move into cash until the storm has passed.\nBuy puts on the S&P 500.\nBuy inverse ETFs.\nShort individual stocks.\n\nCook said that the most prudent strategy for many traders is to move into cash or sell stocks to a point where they’re comfortable. Moving to cash is not designed to make a profit but to protect your portfolio and also to be ready to take advantage of future investment opportunities.\nCook said that you must know how much pain you can accept (i.e., risk tolerance). If you can handle a 30% or 40% downturn, then stay the course. If not, move to the sidelines.\nAnother key to surviving bear markets and crashes is diversification. If your portfolio is diversified, there is no reason to panic, which is what many people do when the market loses 20% or more.\nCook left other valuable nuggets of trading wisdom: “One thing that must be stressed,” he wrote, “is that bear markets are not bad. Think of corrections and bear markets as trading opportunities. There is a pause in buying and then an all-out run for the hills when the grizzly is on their heels. When a bear market arrives, people descend into irrational thinking and actions. It always happens.”\nHe added: “Take the opportunity to learn about downtrending markets. You should also prepare for the next bull market that will emerge once the bear market ends. That’s when you can really do well. While trading on the short side involves good timing skills and experience, it’s easier to trade in a rising market.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}