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2021-08-04

BONNNN

2021-08-03

Moreeeee

2021-08-01

Stonks

2021-08-01

$Apple(AAPL)$Brrrrrrr

2021-07-31

$Apple(AAPL)$Niceeee

2021-07-29

$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$More!!!

2021-07-29

Support!!

2021-07-29

Buy more

2021-07-28

$Apple(AAPL)$Brrrrrr

2021-07-28

Future

2021-07-22

Buy more!!

2021-07-22

$Apple(AAPL)$Lol buy

2021-06-29

$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$Buy moreee

2021-06-28

Buy morr

BlackBerry Revenue Struggle Continues<blockquote>黑莓收入困境仍在继续</blockquote>

2021-06-28

$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$BUYyyyyyy

2021-06-28

BUYYY

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-28

$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$Buy more

2021-06-28

Buyyy

2021-06-27

$XIAOMI-W(01810)$Value

2021-06-27

Faster buy

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Inc.(ASXC)$</a>More!!!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASXC\">$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$</a>More!!!","text":"$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$More!!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd459a1b61c46a181a243f76cf0aacd2","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808955096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808956782,"gmtCreate":1627552823146,"gmtModify":1633763874210,"author":{"id":"3586669922840487","authorId":"3586669922840487","name":"Nigelyhz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb21d0809f57cdc597f61c1afb31d50","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586669922840487","authorIdStr":"3586669922840487"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Support!!","listText":"Support!!","text":"Support!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808956782","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801837397,"gmtCreate":1627505859319,"gmtModify":1633764440660,"author":{"id":"3586669922840487","authorId":"3586669922840487","name":"Nigelyhz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb21d0809f57cdc597f61c1afb31d50","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586669922840487","authorIdStr":"3586669922840487"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy more","listText":"Buy more","text":"Buy more","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32193fc4bfb569e13ce4928875a85e91","width":"1125","height":"2886"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801837397","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803943204,"gmtCreate":1627404371808,"gmtModify":1633765314516,"author":{"id":"3586669922840487","authorId":"3586669922840487","name":"Nigelyhz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb21d0809f57cdc597f61c1afb31d50","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586669922840487","authorIdStr":"3586669922840487"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Brrrrrr","listText":"<a 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more!!","listText":"Buy more!!","text":"Buy more!!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa8b7919b22970f7543c970fa636be47","width":"750","height":"1939"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176280230","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176280836,"gmtCreate":1626887453925,"gmtModify":1633770061559,"author":{"id":"3586669922840487","authorId":"3586669922840487","name":"Nigelyhz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb21d0809f57cdc597f61c1afb31d50","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586669922840487","authorIdStr":"3586669922840487"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Lol buy&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>Lol buy&nbsp;","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$Lol buy","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fe1936d9d3e2ae220d88a769c9d44fe","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176280836","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159256706,"gmtCreate":1624971928805,"gmtModify":1631888831269,"author":{"id":"3586669922840487","authorId":"3586669922840487","name":"Nigelyhz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb21d0809f57cdc597f61c1afb31d50","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586669922840487","authorIdStr":"3586669922840487"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASXC\">$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$</a>Buy moreee","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASXC\">$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$</a>Buy moreee","text":"$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$Buy moreee","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21219d4a3e03e1826f66a5caccde3665","width":"750","height":"1068"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159256706","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150911656,"gmtCreate":1624881544975,"gmtModify":1633947585854,"author":{"id":"3586669922840487","authorId":"3586669922840487","name":"Nigelyhz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb21d0809f57cdc597f61c1afb31d50","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586669922840487","authorIdStr":"3586669922840487"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy morr","listText":"Buy morr","text":"Buy morr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150911656","repostId":"1114821094","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114821094","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624866948,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1114821094?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 15:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BlackBerry Revenue Struggle Continues<blockquote>黑莓收入困境仍在继续</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114821094","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWhile top line beats, core business basically stagnating.\nOperating losses don't seem to be","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>While top line beats, core business basically stagnating.</li>  <li>Operating losses don't seem to be going away anytime soon.</li>  <li>Recent rally won't hold if stock valued on fundamentals.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb0094dfdedbde038d5b19e46b477f1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"597\"><span>Guirong Hao/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>虽然营收节节攀升，但核心业务基本停滞不前。</li><li>经营亏损似乎不会很快消失。</li><li>如果股票根据基本面估值，最近的反弹将不会持续。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>郝桂荣/iStock via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After the bell last Thursday, we received&nbsp;fiscal Q1 earnings results&nbsp;from BlackBerry (BB). While the company's shares have rallied at times recently, thanks to the retail trading mania, results have been rather poor. For the first quarter of its fiscal 2022 year, BlackBerry announced its lowest three-month revenue number under CEO John Chen. If this name loses the reddit fans that have propped up the stock, shares are likely to head lower as results just aren't there yet.</p><p><blockquote>上周四盘后，我们收到了黑莓 (BB) 第一财季盈利结果。尽管由于零售交易狂热，该公司的股价最近有时会上涨，但业绩却相当糟糕。对于 2022 财年第一季度，黑莓公布了首席执行官 John Chen 领导下的最低三个月收入数据。如果这个名字失去了支撑该股的 reddit 粉丝，股价可能会下跌，因为结果还没有出来。</blockquote></p><p> If you remember&nbsp;the company's previous earnings report, management discussed back in late March that it had entered negotiations for a potential sale of its patent portfolio. Thus, the revenue forecast for the Licensing segment was essentially reduced for the year, with the following commentary from management&nbsp;on that earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>如果您还记得该公司之前的收益报告，管理层早在 3 月下旬就讨论过，该公司已进入出售其专利组合的潜在谈判。因此，本年度授权分部的收入预测大幅下调，管理层对该盈利看涨期权的评论如下：</blockquote></p><p>   However, appreciating that it will be useful to have an outlook for modeling purpose, the most conservative scenario in which sales, we modeled that sales does not happen or does not complete, full year licensing revenue will be in the region of $100 million. In this scenario, we assume that negotiation and regulatory review continue for the first half and therefore we expect revenue to be limited in the range of maybe $10 million to $15 million per quarter.  For the quarter, total revenues of $174 million came in about $3 million ahead of Street estimates. However, the composition of the revenue generated was not what many were hoping for. Licensing actually came in at $24 million, much higher than what estimates called for. As management stated&nbsp;on the conference call, some business came in earlier than expected. Just like many recent quarters that we've seen, the pull-forward in this segment made the overall quarter look less bad, and without this extra business, the top line would have easily missed estimates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，意识到对建模目的有一个前景是有用的，在最保守的情况下，我们建模销售没有发生或没有完成，全年许可收入将在1亿美元左右。在这种情况下，我们假设谈判和监管审查将在上半年继续进行，因此我们预计每个季度的收入将被限制在 1000 万至 1500 万美元之间。本季度总收入为 1.74 亿美元，比华尔街预期高出约 300 万美元。然而，所产生收入的构成并不是许多人所希望的。许可费用实际上为 2400 万美元，远高于预期。正如管理层在电话会议上所说，一些业务比预期来得早。就像我们最近看到的许多季度一样，该细分市场的提前使整个季度看起来不那么糟糕，如果没有这项额外业务，营收很容易达不到预期。</blockquote></p><p> That revenue upside meant that the newly called Cyber Security and IoT segments only represented $150 million. The total on those two business lines was up a paltry $2 million over the prior year period, and down $18 million from Q1 2020. On the call, management said it expects cyber security revenue to come in at the low end of its previous guidance range for the full fiscal year. A good portion of BlackBerry's key metrics also weakened over the prior year period, as detailed in the graphic below.</p><p><blockquote>这一收入增长意味着新命名的网络安全和物联网部门仅代表 1.5 亿美元。这两项业务的总额比去年同期仅增加了 200 万美元，比 2020 年第一季度减少了 1800 万美元。在看涨期权上，管理层表示，预计整个财年的网络安全收入将处于之前指导范围的低端。黑莓的大部分关键指标也比去年同期有所减弱，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ba0e5502df8810761def4deddeb053\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"145\"><span>(Source: Q1 2021 earnings release, linked above)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：2021 年第一季度收益发布，链接如上）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The year-over-year numbers certainly aren't good, with annual recurring revenue down by $23 million. The dollar-based net retention rate has also dipped by 7 percentage points. Supporters will talk about the growth in the QNX backlog, and BlackBerry management said in the earnings release that this was a 9% year-over-year increase. That seems to be what the graphic is saying, but take a look at what was said in previous press releases (bold emphasis added). The following statements make that year-over-year growth rate seem not true, that this is actually a 5 quarter increase, taking a good chunk of that growth rate away.</p><p><blockquote>同比数字肯定不好，年度经常性收入下降了 2300 万美元。以美元计算的净保留率也下降了7个百分点。支持者将谈论 QNX 积压订单的增长，黑莓管理层在财报发布中表示，这是同比增长 9%。这似乎是图片所说的，但看看之前的新闻稿中是怎么说的（粗体强调了）。以下陈述使得同比增长率似乎不真实，这实际上是 5 个季度的增长，带走了该增长率的很大一部分。</blockquote></p><p>   Fiscal Q1 2021 Document,linked here:    The Company's QNX royalty revenue backlog was approximately $450 million at&nbsp;  <b>the beginning of the first quarterof fiscal 2021</b>.    Recent QNX release,linked here:    BlackBerry also announced that BlackBerry QNX royalty revenue backlog has increased to $490 million at the&nbsp;  <b>end of its first quarter of fiscal year2022</b>.  With the company's revenue base shrinking to a new low under this CEO, the rest of the income statement didn't look much better. Gross margins fell nearly 4 percentage points, while the operating loss excluding items jumped from $50 million to $62 million. The company matched Street non-GAAP loss estimates at a nickel per share. However, this was again due to a number of items that management excludes that are traditional expenses for companies like this, including stock-based compensation and intangibles amortization.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第一季度财政文件，链接在此：该公司的 QNX 特许权使用费收入积压约为 4.5 亿美元<b>2021财年第一季度开始</b>. 最近发布的 QNX，链接在此：黑莓还宣布，截至 2019 年，黑莓 QNX 版税收入积压已增至 4.9 亿美元。<b>2022 财年第一季度末</b>在这位首席执行官的领导下，公司的收入基础萎缩到新低，损益表的其余部分看起来也好不到哪里去。毛利率下降近 4 个百分点，而不包括项目的营业亏损从 5000 万美元跃升至 6200 万美元。该公司将华尔街非 GAAP 亏损预期调整为每股镍。然而，这又是由于管理层排除了一些项目，这些项目是此类公司的传统费用，包括基于股票的薪酬和无形资产摊销。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For the quarter, cash burn came in at $35 million, $3 million more than the year-ago period. The value of equity on the balance sheet dropped another $48 million, and there is a larger holding value of intangibles and goodwill combined than there is equity. Total deferred revenue dropped again from $294 million to $265 million, which will further impact the company's ability for the top line to grow moving forward. Billings were also down on a year-over-year and sequential basis.</p><p><blockquote>本季度现金消耗为 3500 万美元，比去年同期增加 300 万美元。资产负债表上的股权价值又下降了4800万美元，无形资产和商誉的持有价值加起来比股权还要大。递延收入总额再次从 2.94 亿美元降至 2.65 亿美元，这将进一步影响公司未来营收增长的能力。账单也同比和环比下降。</blockquote></p><p> I mentioned in&nbsp;my previous article&nbsp;that the biggest argument against the name right now is valuation. I compared BlackBerry to IBM (IBM), which itself has had revenue troubles as it transitions its legacy businesses to more current ones. Even if BlackBerry were worth three times IBM on a price to sales basis, BlackBerry would be worth about $10.51 more than a year out. I don't see anything in last week's report that really changes that number, and one could argue my previous revenue growth hope for the following fiscal year now needs to come down a bit. The recent \"reddit rally\" has also pushed the name well above its key technical levels as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in red).</p><p><blockquote>我在之前的文章中提到过，现在反对这个名字的最大论点是估值。我将黑莓与 IBM (IBM) 进行了比较，后者在将传统业务转型为更现代的业务时也遇到了收入问题。即使按市销率计算，黑莓的市值是 IBM 的三倍，黑莓一年后的市值也会高出约 10.51 美元。我在上周的报告中没有看到任何真正改变这个数字的内容，有人可能会说，我之前对下一财年的收入增长希望现在需要下降一点。最近的“reddit 反弹”也将该名称推高至其关键技术水平之上，如下图所示（50 天紫色，200 天红色）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e0060206489ea2bfe405eae34646358\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\"><span>(Source: Yahoo! Finance)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：雅虎财经）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the end, last week's earnings report showed that the revenue struggles at BlackBerry have not subsided. Another licensing pull-forward helped the overall numbers look okay, but the core business is not doing well overall. Management reduced its guidance for both the Cyber Security and IoT segments, signaling that this latest turnaround will take longer than expected. If the stock cannot hold on to its reddit crowd base, shares will likely continue to pull back to where the valuation should realistically be.</p><p><blockquote>最终，上周的财报显示，黑莓的收入困境并未平息。另一次授权提前帮助总体数字看起来不错，但核心业务总体上表现不佳。管理层减少了对网络安全和物联网领域的指导，这表明最新的转变将比预期需要更长的时间。如果该股无法保住其 reddit 人群基础，股价可能会继续回落至估值实际应有的水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BlackBerry Revenue Struggle Continues<blockquote>黑莓收入困境仍在继续</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBlackBerry Revenue Struggle Continues<blockquote>黑莓收入困境仍在继续</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 15:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>While top line beats, core business basically stagnating.</li>  <li>Operating losses don't seem to be going away anytime soon.</li>  <li>Recent rally won't hold if stock valued on fundamentals.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edb0094dfdedbde038d5b19e46b477f1\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"597\"><span>Guirong Hao/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>虽然营收节节攀升，但核心业务基本停滞不前。</li><li>经营亏损似乎不会很快消失。</li><li>如果股票根据基本面估值，最近的反弹将不会持续。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>郝桂荣/iStock via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> After the bell last Thursday, we received&nbsp;fiscal Q1 earnings results&nbsp;from BlackBerry (BB). While the company's shares have rallied at times recently, thanks to the retail trading mania, results have been rather poor. For the first quarter of its fiscal 2022 year, BlackBerry announced its lowest three-month revenue number under CEO John Chen. If this name loses the reddit fans that have propped up the stock, shares are likely to head lower as results just aren't there yet.</p><p><blockquote>上周四盘后，我们收到了黑莓 (BB) 第一财季盈利结果。尽管由于零售交易狂热，该公司的股价最近有时会上涨，但业绩却相当糟糕。对于 2022 财年第一季度，黑莓公布了首席执行官 John Chen 领导下的最低三个月收入数据。如果这个名字失去了支撑该股的 reddit 粉丝，股价可能会下跌，因为结果还没有出来。</blockquote></p><p> If you remember&nbsp;the company's previous earnings report, management discussed back in late March that it had entered negotiations for a potential sale of its patent portfolio. Thus, the revenue forecast for the Licensing segment was essentially reduced for the year, with the following commentary from management&nbsp;on that earnings call:</p><p><blockquote>如果您还记得该公司之前的收益报告，管理层早在 3 月下旬就讨论过，该公司已进入出售其专利组合的潜在谈判。因此，本年度授权分部的收入预测大幅下调，管理层对该盈利看涨期权的评论如下：</blockquote></p><p>   However, appreciating that it will be useful to have an outlook for modeling purpose, the most conservative scenario in which sales, we modeled that sales does not happen or does not complete, full year licensing revenue will be in the region of $100 million. In this scenario, we assume that negotiation and regulatory review continue for the first half and therefore we expect revenue to be limited in the range of maybe $10 million to $15 million per quarter.  For the quarter, total revenues of $174 million came in about $3 million ahead of Street estimates. However, the composition of the revenue generated was not what many were hoping for. Licensing actually came in at $24 million, much higher than what estimates called for. As management stated&nbsp;on the conference call, some business came in earlier than expected. Just like many recent quarters that we've seen, the pull-forward in this segment made the overall quarter look less bad, and without this extra business, the top line would have easily missed estimates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，意识到对建模目的有一个前景是有用的，在最保守的情况下，我们建模销售没有发生或没有完成，全年许可收入将在1亿美元左右。在这种情况下，我们假设谈判和监管审查将在上半年继续进行，因此我们预计每个季度的收入将被限制在 1000 万至 1500 万美元之间。本季度总收入为 1.74 亿美元，比华尔街预期高出约 300 万美元。然而，所产生收入的构成并不是许多人所希望的。许可费用实际上为 2400 万美元，远高于预期。正如管理层在电话会议上所说，一些业务比预期来得早。就像我们最近看到的许多季度一样，该细分市场的提前使整个季度看起来不那么糟糕，如果没有这项额外业务，营收很容易达不到预期。</blockquote></p><p> That revenue upside meant that the newly called Cyber Security and IoT segments only represented $150 million. The total on those two business lines was up a paltry $2 million over the prior year period, and down $18 million from Q1 2020. On the call, management said it expects cyber security revenue to come in at the low end of its previous guidance range for the full fiscal year. A good portion of BlackBerry's key metrics also weakened over the prior year period, as detailed in the graphic below.</p><p><blockquote>这一收入增长意味着新命名的网络安全和物联网部门仅代表 1.5 亿美元。这两项业务的总额比去年同期仅增加了 200 万美元，比 2020 年第一季度减少了 1800 万美元。在看涨期权上，管理层表示，预计整个财年的网络安全收入将处于之前指导范围的低端。黑莓的大部分关键指标也比去年同期有所减弱，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82ba0e5502df8810761def4deddeb053\" tg-width=\"570\" tg-height=\"145\"><span>(Source: Q1 2021 earnings release, linked above)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：2021 年第一季度收益发布，链接如上）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The year-over-year numbers certainly aren't good, with annual recurring revenue down by $23 million. The dollar-based net retention rate has also dipped by 7 percentage points. Supporters will talk about the growth in the QNX backlog, and BlackBerry management said in the earnings release that this was a 9% year-over-year increase. That seems to be what the graphic is saying, but take a look at what was said in previous press releases (bold emphasis added). The following statements make that year-over-year growth rate seem not true, that this is actually a 5 quarter increase, taking a good chunk of that growth rate away.</p><p><blockquote>同比数字肯定不好，年度经常性收入下降了 2300 万美元。以美元计算的净保留率也下降了7个百分点。支持者将谈论 QNX 积压订单的增长，黑莓管理层在财报发布中表示，这是同比增长 9%。这似乎是图片所说的，但看看之前的新闻稿中是怎么说的（粗体强调了）。以下陈述使得同比增长率似乎不真实，这实际上是 5 个季度的增长，带走了该增长率的很大一部分。</blockquote></p><p>   Fiscal Q1 2021 Document,linked here:    The Company's QNX royalty revenue backlog was approximately $450 million at&nbsp;  <b>the beginning of the first quarterof fiscal 2021</b>.    Recent QNX release,linked here:    BlackBerry also announced that BlackBerry QNX royalty revenue backlog has increased to $490 million at the&nbsp;  <b>end of its first quarter of fiscal year2022</b>.  With the company's revenue base shrinking to a new low under this CEO, the rest of the income statement didn't look much better. Gross margins fell nearly 4 percentage points, while the operating loss excluding items jumped from $50 million to $62 million. The company matched Street non-GAAP loss estimates at a nickel per share. However, this was again due to a number of items that management excludes that are traditional expenses for companies like this, including stock-based compensation and intangibles amortization.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第一季度财政文件，链接在此：该公司的 QNX 特许权使用费收入积压约为 4.5 亿美元<b>2021财年第一季度开始</b>. 最近发布的 QNX，链接在此：黑莓还宣布，截至 2019 年，黑莓 QNX 版税收入积压已增至 4.9 亿美元。<b>2022 财年第一季度末</b>在这位首席执行官的领导下，公司的收入基础萎缩到新低，损益表的其余部分看起来也好不到哪里去。毛利率下降近 4 个百分点，而不包括项目的营业亏损从 5000 万美元跃升至 6200 万美元。该公司将华尔街非 GAAP 亏损预期调整为每股镍。然而，这又是由于管理层排除了一些项目，这些项目是此类公司的传统费用，包括基于股票的薪酬和无形资产摊销。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For the quarter, cash burn came in at $35 million, $3 million more than the year-ago period. The value of equity on the balance sheet dropped another $48 million, and there is a larger holding value of intangibles and goodwill combined than there is equity. Total deferred revenue dropped again from $294 million to $265 million, which will further impact the company's ability for the top line to grow moving forward. Billings were also down on a year-over-year and sequential basis.</p><p><blockquote>本季度现金消耗为 3500 万美元，比去年同期增加 300 万美元。资产负债表上的股权价值又下降了4800万美元，无形资产和商誉的持有价值加起来比股权还要大。递延收入总额再次从 2.94 亿美元降至 2.65 亿美元，这将进一步影响公司未来营收增长的能力。账单也同比和环比下降。</blockquote></p><p> I mentioned in&nbsp;my previous article&nbsp;that the biggest argument against the name right now is valuation. I compared BlackBerry to IBM (IBM), which itself has had revenue troubles as it transitions its legacy businesses to more current ones. Even if BlackBerry were worth three times IBM on a price to sales basis, BlackBerry would be worth about $10.51 more than a year out. I don't see anything in last week's report that really changes that number, and one could argue my previous revenue growth hope for the following fiscal year now needs to come down a bit. The recent \"reddit rally\" has also pushed the name well above its key technical levels as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in red).</p><p><blockquote>我在之前的文章中提到过，现在反对这个名字的最大论点是估值。我将黑莓与 IBM (IBM) 进行了比较，后者在将传统业务转型为更现代的业务时也遇到了收入问题。即使按市销率计算，黑莓的市值是 IBM 的三倍，黑莓一年后的市值也会高出约 10.51 美元。我在上周的报告中没有看到任何真正改变这个数字的内容，有人可能会说，我之前对下一财年的收入增长希望现在需要下降一点。最近的“reddit 反弹”也将该名称推高至其关键技术水平之上，如下图所示（50 天紫色，200 天红色）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e0060206489ea2bfe405eae34646358\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"275\"><span>(Source: Yahoo! Finance)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：雅虎财经）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the end, last week's earnings report showed that the revenue struggles at BlackBerry have not subsided. Another licensing pull-forward helped the overall numbers look okay, but the core business is not doing well overall. Management reduced its guidance for both the Cyber Security and IoT segments, signaling that this latest turnaround will take longer than expected. If the stock cannot hold on to its reddit crowd base, shares will likely continue to pull back to where the valuation should realistically be.</p><p><blockquote>最终，上周的财报显示，黑莓的收入困境并未平息。另一次授权提前帮助总体数字看起来不错，但核心业务总体上表现不佳。管理层减少了对网络安全和物联网领域的指导，这表明最新的转变将比预期需要更长的时间。如果该股无法保住其 reddit 人群基础，股价可能会继续回落至估值实际应有的水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436862-blackberry-revenue-struggle-continues\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BB":"黑莓"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436862-blackberry-revenue-struggle-continues","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114821094","content_text":"Summary\n\nWhile top line beats, core business basically stagnating.\nOperating losses don't seem to be going away anytime soon.\nRecent rally won't hold if stock valued on fundamentals.\n\nGuirong Hao/iStock via Getty Images\nAfter the bell last Thursday, we received fiscal Q1 earnings results from BlackBerry (BB). While the company's shares have rallied at times recently, thanks to the retail trading mania, results have been rather poor. For the first quarter of its fiscal 2022 year, BlackBerry announced its lowest three-month revenue number under CEO John Chen. If this name loses the reddit fans that have propped up the stock, shares are likely to head lower as results just aren't there yet.\nIf you remember the company's previous earnings report, management discussed back in late March that it had entered negotiations for a potential sale of its patent portfolio. Thus, the revenue forecast for the Licensing segment was essentially reduced for the year, with the following commentary from management on that earnings call:\n\n However, appreciating that it will be useful to have an outlook for modeling purpose, the most conservative scenario in which sales, we modeled that sales does not happen or does not complete, full year licensing revenue will be in the region of $100 million. In this scenario, we assume that negotiation and regulatory review continue for the first half and therefore we expect revenue to be limited in the range of maybe $10 million to $15 million per quarter.\n\nFor the quarter, total revenues of $174 million came in about $3 million ahead of Street estimates. However, the composition of the revenue generated was not what many were hoping for. Licensing actually came in at $24 million, much higher than what estimates called for. As management stated on the conference call, some business came in earlier than expected. Just like many recent quarters that we've seen, the pull-forward in this segment made the overall quarter look less bad, and without this extra business, the top line would have easily missed estimates.\nThat revenue upside meant that the newly called Cyber Security and IoT segments only represented $150 million. The total on those two business lines was up a paltry $2 million over the prior year period, and down $18 million from Q1 2020. On the call, management said it expects cyber security revenue to come in at the low end of its previous guidance range for the full fiscal year. A good portion of BlackBerry's key metrics also weakened over the prior year period, as detailed in the graphic below.\n(Source: Q1 2021 earnings release, linked above)\nThe year-over-year numbers certainly aren't good, with annual recurring revenue down by $23 million. The dollar-based net retention rate has also dipped by 7 percentage points. Supporters will talk about the growth in the QNX backlog, and BlackBerry management said in the earnings release that this was a 9% year-over-year increase. That seems to be what the graphic is saying, but take a look at what was said in previous press releases (bold emphasis added). The following statements make that year-over-year growth rate seem not true, that this is actually a 5 quarter increase, taking a good chunk of that growth rate away.\n\n Fiscal Q1 2021 Document,linked here:\n\n\n The Company's QNX royalty revenue backlog was approximately $450 million at \n the beginning of the first quarterof fiscal 2021.\n\n\n Recent QNX release,linked here:\n\n\n BlackBerry also announced that BlackBerry QNX royalty revenue backlog has increased to $490 million at the \n end of its first quarter of fiscal year2022.\n\nWith the company's revenue base shrinking to a new low under this CEO, the rest of the income statement didn't look much better. Gross margins fell nearly 4 percentage points, while the operating loss excluding items jumped from $50 million to $62 million. The company matched Street non-GAAP loss estimates at a nickel per share. However, this was again due to a number of items that management excludes that are traditional expenses for companies like this, including stock-based compensation and intangibles amortization.\nFor the quarter, cash burn came in at $35 million, $3 million more than the year-ago period. The value of equity on the balance sheet dropped another $48 million, and there is a larger holding value of intangibles and goodwill combined than there is equity. Total deferred revenue dropped again from $294 million to $265 million, which will further impact the company's ability for the top line to grow moving forward. Billings were also down on a year-over-year and sequential basis.\nI mentioned in my previous article that the biggest argument against the name right now is valuation. I compared BlackBerry to IBM (IBM), which itself has had revenue troubles as it transitions its legacy businesses to more current ones. Even if BlackBerry were worth three times IBM on a price to sales basis, BlackBerry would be worth about $10.51 more than a year out. I don't see anything in last week's report that really changes that number, and one could argue my previous revenue growth hope for the following fiscal year now needs to come down a bit. The recent \"reddit rally\" has also pushed the name well above its key technical levels as seen in the chart below (50-day in purple, 200-day in red).\n(Source: Yahoo! Finance)\nIn the end, last week's earnings report showed that the revenue struggles at BlackBerry have not subsided. Another licensing pull-forward helped the overall numbers look okay, but the core business is not doing well overall. Management reduced its guidance for both the Cyber Security and IoT segments, signaling that this latest turnaround will take longer than expected. If the stock cannot hold on to its reddit crowd base, shares will likely continue to pull back to where the valuation should realistically be.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":683,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150911991,"gmtCreate":1624881527113,"gmtModify":1631888831269,"author":{"id":"3586669922840487","authorId":"3586669922840487","name":"Nigelyhz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb21d0809f57cdc597f61c1afb31d50","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586669922840487","authorIdStr":"3586669922840487"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASXC\">$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$</a>BUYyyyyyy","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASXC\">$Asensus Surgical, Inc.(ASXC)$</a>BUYyyyyyy","text":"$Asensus Surgical, 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09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来赢了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148576248","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.NIO Inc.  stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla .In ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比特斯拉快，然而，它的交易价格却打折了。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）以其强大的市场地位——中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长且竞争激烈的电动汽车行业中的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来能够战胜一些激烈的竞争，包括特斯拉（TSLA）。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们还将讨论蔚来汽车的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己的明智决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位在高端SUV细分市场，专注于具有差异化电池战略的智能电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统【NOMI】，与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等不相上下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借 ES8 的巨大成功所带来的安装基础和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了 ES6 和 EC6。最近，该公司推出了其首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>如今，蔚来是4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，市场份额为23%，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）的7%。中国汽车技术研究中心数据。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，它几乎消除了里程焦虑，这是大规模电动汽车采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个换电站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池更换策略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务 [BaaS] 解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约 11,000 美元。由于成本是大规模电动汽车采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来汽车的电池战略似乎非常出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层通过在2016年推出EP9出色地打造了这一品牌。六辆 EP9 已以 250 万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特性和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来通过ES8瞄准大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为它们生产低质量产品的看法作斗争。这与二战后日本企业战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是打破“中国制造”等同于低质量观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固地坚持这种旧观念的投资者将会错过投资世界上有史以来最伟大的品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着得到一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括收费货车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国大陆的客户服务方面声誉不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在通过蔚来之家（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品）进一步突破界限。蔚来围绕汽车构建生活方式的努力似乎正在奏效。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为要想逃离汽车代工厂的竞争战场，唯一的办法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利（赛车）营业利润率远高于 20%，而福特 (F) 和通用汽车 (GM) 则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计 2021 年 EBITDA 为负 2.58 亿美元，2022 年为正 2.06 亿美元。自由现金流预计在2021年为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计 2021 年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到安心，因为该公司在 2020 年退出时拥有 59 亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括 6 亿美元的短期投资，减去约 21 亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及 2021 年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在 2021 年退出时应该拥有超过 40 亿美元的净现金和投资。这是充足的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在 2022 年产生正自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注未来的电动汽车/销售倍数，这是尚未盈利的高速增长公司的典型情况。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为电动汽车/销售额的7至8倍，然后在2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，蔚来汽车的估值在2021年1月飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的远期销售额要合理得多。尽管增长速度是 TSLA 10.2 倍，但这比 TSLA 10.2 倍的电动汽车/销量大幅折扣（TSLA 预计 2021 年收入将增长 57%，而蔚来汽车为 117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来存在许多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其电池更换战略高度差异化，并且似乎正在快速增长，但电池更换或快速充电基础设施的最终市场份额仍然没有定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池更换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式具有创新性和新颖性。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然无利可图。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力提高之前，蔚来仍将是一个“给我看”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车的全球扩张能力可能会受到中美地缘政治紧张局势的限制，以及在较小程度上与日本和欧洲的地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临着严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度不断增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服ICE原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和中国比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其汽车和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也在变得越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于蔚来汽车更快的增长率和较低的市盈率，其股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来赢了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Is Winning<blockquote>蔚来赢了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>NIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.</li>  <li>The company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.</li>  <li>NIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/790fae23b830463fec748d2deb2ce336\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>PonyWang/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来在中国电动SUV市场排名第一是有充分理由的。</li><li>该公司的成功是由其出色的创新和营销策略推动的。</li><li>蔚来的增长速度比特斯拉快，然而，它的交易价格却打折了。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PonyWang/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）以其强大的市场地位——中国电动SUV市场份额第一——以及在快速增长且竞争激烈的电动汽车行业中的创新而脱颖而出。本文将讨论为什么蔚来能够战胜一些激烈的竞争，包括特斯拉（TSLA）。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们还将讨论蔚来汽车的业务、财务、交易、估值和风险，以便读者能够做出自己的明智决定。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business: Why NIO Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业：蔚来为何获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来将自己定位在高端SUV细分市场，专注于具有差异化电池战略的智能电动汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Delivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的首款车型ES8于2019年3月交付，是一款豪华7座SUV，至今仍是该公司的旗舰产品。ES8配备ADAS和AI系统【NOMI】，与比亚迪宋、特斯拉Model X、奥迪Q7 45 e-Tron等不相上下。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443e2773f70c00c6faac8ca063e978a5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"387\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Leveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.</p><p><blockquote>凭借 ES8 的巨大成功所带来的安装基础和客户好感，蔚来成功推出了 ES6 和 EC6。最近，该公司推出了其首款轿车ET7。</blockquote></p><p> Today, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.</p><p><blockquote>如今，蔚来是4月份中国全电动SUV市场最畅销的品牌，市场份额为23%，高于特斯拉的17%、威马汽车和小鹏汽车（纽约证券交易所股票代码：XPEV）的7%。中国汽车技术研究中心数据。</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.</p><p><blockquote>最大的竞争优势之一是蔚来的电池战略，它几乎消除了里程焦虑，这是大规模电动汽车采用的最大障碍之一。蔚来汽车不仅可以在任何电动汽车充电站充电，该公司还在国内主要城市建设了数百个换电站，并计划扩展到欧洲。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的电池更换策略还使该公司能够提供电池即服务 [BaaS] 解决方案，从而将购买蔚来汽车的前期成本降低约 11,000 美元。由于成本是大规模电动汽车采用的另一个主要障碍，蔚来汽车的电池战略似乎非常出色，因为它解决了续航里程和成本问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b25fbb85bffd39310cd27cbb2bde57a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"216\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Another differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.</p><p><blockquote>另一个差异化因素是蔚来品牌，管理层通过在2016年推出EP9出色地打造了这一品牌。六辆 EP9 已以 250 万英镑的价格出售给蔚来投资者，为该品牌营造了一种独特性和品质的氛围。接下来，蔚来通过ES8瞄准大众市场豪华SUV细分市场，牢牢确立了该公司作为豪华车OEM的地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad41c960ce02f1e3f3e7575ac00beee0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"350\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.</p><p><blockquote>中国企业必须与人们普遍认为它们生产低质量产品的看法作斗争。这与二战后日本企业战败后面临的认知问题相同。随着经济的成熟，日本通过向价值链上游移动并创建索尼（纽约证券交易所代码：SONY）等高质量品牌来解决这个问题。今天，日本以其工艺而闻名。</blockquote></p><p> China is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.</p><p><blockquote>中国也在遵循同样的轨迹，蔚来是打破“中国制造”等同于低质量观念的新兴品牌之一。我坚信，顽固地坚持这种旧观念的投资者将会错过投资世界上有史以来最伟大的品牌的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Buying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.</p><p><blockquote>购买蔚来汽车不仅仅意味着得到一辆车；这意味着进入一个服务和便利的专属俱乐部。好处包括使用数百个交换站、终身免费路边救援（包括收费货车）、终身免费蜂窝连接、终身免费保修和卓越的客户服务。这是蔚来的一个强大卖点，使其有别于特斯拉，后者最近在中国大陆的客户服务方面声誉不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a73482aa0431694b760ab5c2d0aa6f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"211\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: Company</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The company is pushing the envelope even further with&nbsp;NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and&nbsp;NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be&nbsp;working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.</p><p><blockquote>该公司正在通过蔚来之家（一个真正的顾客俱乐部会所）和蔚来人寿（包括蔚来品牌的生活方式产品）进一步突破界限。蔚来围绕汽车构建生活方式的努力似乎正在奏效。这对投资者来说是个好消息，因为要想逃离汽车代工厂的竞争战场，唯一的办法就是向客户推销服务和生活方式。这就是为什么法拉利（赛车）营业利润率远高于 20%，而福特 (F) 和通用汽车 (GM) 则为个位数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials &amp; Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务与估值</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来正处于高速增长模式。2020年，该公司实现收入25亿美元，同比增长126%。2021年，该公司预计将同比增长117%，达到54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>该公司尚未盈利，但预计到2022年将实现盈利。毛利率仅在2020年转正，预计2021年为19.3%。预计 2021 年 EBITDA 为负 2.58 亿美元，2022 年为正 2.06 亿美元。自由现金流预计在2021年为负4200万美元，然后在2022年转为正3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> However, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited&nbsp;2020&nbsp;with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管预计 2021 年将出现现金消耗，但投资者应该感到安心，因为该公司在 2020 年退出时拥有 59 亿美元的现金和现金等价物。包括 6 亿美元的短期投资，减去约 21 亿美元的债务和经营租赁以及 2021 年预期的负自由现金流，蔚来在 2021 年退出时应该拥有超过 40 亿美元的净现金和投资。这是充足的缓冲，因为蔚来预计将在 2022 年产生正自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> Since NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).</p><p><blockquote>由于蔚来尚未盈利，我们将关注未来的电动汽车/销售倍数，这是尚未盈利的高速增长公司的典型情况。该公司于2018年9月上市，交易价格约为电动汽车/销售额的7至8倍，然后在2019年5月触底，约为销售额的0.7倍。然而，市场在2020年4月掀起了电动汽车热潮，蔚来汽车的估值在2021年1月飙升至14.6倍的峰值。在我们最近经历的增长抛售之后，蔚来目前的远期销售额要合理得多。尽管增长速度是 TSLA 10.2 倍，但这比 TSLA 10.2 倍的电动汽车/销量大幅折扣（TSLA 预计 2021 年收入将增长 57%，而蔚来汽车为 117%）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> There are many risks associated with owning NIO.</p><p><blockquote>拥有蔚来存在许多风险。</blockquote></p><p> Although its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.</p><p><blockquote>尽管其电池更换战略高度差异化，并且似乎正在快速增长，但电池更换或快速充电基础设施的最终市场份额仍然没有定论。如果快速充电技术继续大幅进步，很可能会侵蚀电池更换的一个关键优势：速度。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的商业模式具有创新性和新颖性。不幸的是，另一方面是它未经测试，蔚来仍然无利可图。对于许多投资者来说，在其商业模式的盈利能力提高之前，蔚来仍将是一个“给我看”的故事。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车的全球扩张能力可能会受到中美地缘政治紧张局势的限制，以及在较小程度上与日本和欧洲的地缘政治紧张局势的限制。地缘政治局势仍然高度不透明和不确定，是所有汽车原始设备制造商的风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Auto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip&nbsp;shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.</p><p><blockquote>汽车主机厂目前正面临着严重的芯片短缺。此外，汽车中的芯片密度不断增加，使得原始设备制造商越来越依赖半导体供应商和代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的竞争优势可能无法克服ICE原始设备制造商以及特斯拉和中国比亚迪等更大的电动汽车制造商的巨大规模优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的技术和商业模式创新使其在令人兴奋且快速增长的电动汽车市场中成为一家高度差异化的公司。该公司正在获胜，随着其汽车和服务生态系统的发展，其竞争护城河也在变得越来越大。相对于行业领导者特斯拉，鉴于蔚来汽车更快的增长率和较低的市盈率，其股价似乎很便宜。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435341-nio-is-winning","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148576248","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is #1 in China's electric SUV market for good reason.\nThe company's success is driven by its brilliant innovations and marketing strategy.\nNIO is growing faster than Tesla, and yet, it is trading at a discount.\n\nPonyWang/E+ via Getty Images\nNIO Inc. (NYSE:NIO) stands out for its strong market position- #1 market share in electric SUV in China- and innovation in the rapidly growing and highly competitive electric vehicle industry. This article will discuss why NIO is winning against some stiff competition, including against Tesla (TSLA).\nIn addition, we will discuss NIO's business, financials, trading, valuation, and risks so readers could reach their own informed decision.\nBusiness: Why NIO Wins\nNIO positions itself in the premium SUV segment, focusing on smart EVs with a differentiated battery strategy.\nDelivered in March 2019, the company's first model, the ES8, is a luxury 7-seater SUV that is still the company's flagship product today. The ES8 is equipped with ADAS and AI system [NOMI] and is comparable to the BYD Song, Tesla Model X, the Audi Q7 45 e-Tron, etc.\nSource: Company\nLeveraging the installed base and customer goodwill due to the highly successful ES8, NIO successfully launched the ES6 and EC6.Recently, the company launched the ET7, its first sedan.\nToday, NIO is the top-selling brand in China's all-electric SUV market in April with a 23% market share, higher than Tesla's 17%, WM Motor and XPeng Motors'(NYSE:XPEV)7%, according to China Automotive Technology and Research Center data.\nOne of the biggest competitive differentiators is NIO'sbattery strategy, which all but eliminates range anxiety, one of the biggest barriers to mass EV adoption. Not only could NIO cars be charged at any charging station for EVs, but the company also built hundreds of battery swapping stations in key cities in China, with plans to expanding to Europe.\nNIO's battery swapping strategy also gives the company the ability to offer a battery-as-a-service [BaaS] solution, which reduces the upfrontcostof purchasing an NIO vehicle by ~$11,000. Since cost is another major barrier to mass EV adoption, NIO's battery strategy appears brilliant as it solves both the range and cost problems.\nSource: Company\nAnother differentiator is the NIO brand, which management created brilliantly by introducing the EP9 in 2016. Six EP9s have been sold to NIO investors for 2.5 million pounds, creating an aura of exclusivity and quality around the brand. Next, NIO targeted the mass-market luxury SUV segment with the ES8, firmly establishing the company as a luxury car OEM.\nSource: Company\nChinese companies must struggle against the common perception that they make low-quality products. This is the same perception issue that Japanese companies faced following their defeat after WW2. Japan solved this problem by moving up the value chain as their economy matured and creating high-quality brands such as Sony(NYSE:SONY). Today, Japan is known for its craftsmanship.\nChina is following the same trajectory, and NIO is one of the emerging brands destroying the perception that \"made in China\" equates to poor quality. I strongly believe that investors who stubbornly hold on to that old perception will miss out on investing in some of the greatest brands the world will ever see.\nBuying an NIO car means much more than just getting a vehicle; it means getting into an exclusive club of services and convenience. Benefits include access to hundreds of swapping stations, lifetime free roadside rescue (including charge vans), lifetime free cellular connectivity, lifetime free warranty, and excellent customer service. This is a powerful selling point for NIO, differentiating it from Tesla, which hasrecentlydeveloped a poor reputation on the customer service front in China.\nSource: Company\nThe company is pushing the envelope even further with NIO House, a literal clubhouse for customers, and NIO Life, which includes NIO branded lifestyle products. NIO's effort to build a lifestyle around its cars seems to be working. This is good news for investors because the only way to escape the competitive battlefield of automobile OEM is to sell services and lifestyles to customers. This is why Ferrari's (RACE) operating margin is well over 20%, while Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) are in the single digits.\nFinancials & Valuation\nNIO is in hyper-growth mode. In 2020, the company generated $2.5 billion in revenue, up 126% y/y. In 2021, the company is expected to grow 117% y/y to $5.4 billion.\nThe company is not yet profitable but is expected to be by 2022. Gross margin only turned positive in 2020 and is expected to be 19.3% in 2021. EBITDA is expected to be negative $258 million in 2021 and a positive $206 million in 2022. Free cash flow is expected to be negative $42 million in 2021 before turning to a positive $354 million in 2022.\nHowever, despite the cash burn expected in 2021, investors should feel at ease since the company exited 2020 with $5.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents. Including $600 million in short-term investments and subtracting ~$2.1 billion in debt and operating leases and the expected negative free cash flow in 2021, NIO should exit 2021 with over $4 billion in net cash and investments. That is plenty of buffers since NIO is expected to generate positive free cash flow in 2022.\nSince NIO is not yet profitable, we will look at the forward EV/Sales multiple as is typical for hyper-growth companies not yet generating a profit. The company went public in September 2018, trading at around 7 to 8 times EV/Sales, before bottoming out at around 0.7 times sales in May 2019. The market, however, caught the EV fever in April 2020 and sent NIO's valuation soaring to a peak of 14.6x by January 2021. After the growth sell-off we recently experienced, NIO is currently sitting at a much more reasonable 8 times forward sales. This is a significant discount to TSLA's 10.2 times forward EV/Sales despite growing twice as fast (TSLA is expected to grow revenues by 57% in 2021 compared to NIO's 117%).\nRisks\nThere are many risks associated with owning NIO.\nAlthough its battery swapping strategy is highly differentiated and seems to be growing rapidly, the jury is still out on the ultimate market share of battery swapping or fast-charging infrastructure. If fast charging technology continues to advance significantly, it will likely erode a key advantage of battery swapping: speed.\nNIO's business model is innovative and new. Unfortunately, the flip side of that is that it is untested, and NIO remains unprofitable. For many investors, NIO will remain a \"show me\" story until the profitability of its business model improves.\nNIO's ability to expand globally may be limited by the rising geopolitical tension between China and the US, and to a lesser extent, with Japan and Europe. The geopolitical situation remains highly opaque and uncertain, and is a risk factor for all auto OEMs.\nAuto OEMs are currently facing a severe chip shortage. In addition, the chip density in automobiles is increasing, making the OEMs increasingly reliant on semiconductor suppliers and foundries.\nNIO's competitive advantages may not overcome the massive scale advantage of ICE OEMs and much bigger EV players like Tesla and China's BYD.\nTakeaway\nNIO's technical and business model innovations make it a highly differentiated company in the exciting and rapidly growing EV market. The company is winning, and its competitive moat is getting bigger as its ecosystem of vehicles and services grows. Relative to the industry leader, Tesla, NIO's stock price seems like a bargain given its faster growth rate and lower multiples.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807173919,"gmtCreate":1628013920831,"gmtModify":1633754397510,"author":{"id":"3586669922840487","authorId":"3586669922840487","name":"Nigelyhz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb21d0809f57cdc597f61c1afb31d50","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586669922840487","authorIdStr":"3586669922840487"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"BONNNN","listText":"BONNNN","text":"BONNNN","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/107f41788511b13912d3337a133e173b","width":"1125","height":"2785"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807173919","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804588261,"gmtCreate":1627964443253,"gmtModify":1633754801762,"author":{"id":"3586669922840487","authorId":"3586669922840487","name":"Nigelyhz","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fb21d0809f57cdc597f61c1afb31d50","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586669922840487","authorIdStr":"3586669922840487"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Moreeeee","listText":"Moreeeee","text":"Moreeeee","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804588261","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}