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2021-07-23

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2021-07-22

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2021-07-21

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ASML Holding EPS beats by €0.03, misses on revenue<blockquote>ASML Holding EPS 超过预期 0.03 欧元，营收不及预期</blockquote>

2021-07-18

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2021-07-14

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2021-07-10

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2021-07-09

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2021-07-05

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2021-06-21

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2021-06-20

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2021-06-18

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2021-06-18

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2021-06-18

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Palantir: The Untold Truth<blockquote>Palantir：不为人知的真相</blockquote>

2021-06-17

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2021-06-17

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2021-06-16

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2 Reasons Netflix Will Win Its Merchandising Gambit<blockquote>Netflix 将赢得营销策略的 2 个原因</blockquote>

2021-06-16

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Is Fisker The Next Short Squeeze?<blockquote>菲斯克是下一个空头挤压吗？</blockquote>

2021-06-16

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@财报研究社pro:“清研精准”元A轮融资，领投机构为百度、小苗朗程

2021-06-16

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2021-06-16

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SPACs could stage a summer comeback<blockquote>SPAC 可能会在夏季卷土重来</blockquote>

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pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176735024","repostId":"1165060575","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176046608,"gmtCreate":1626849383304,"gmtModify":1633770421886,"author":{"id":"3586767743717067","authorId":"3586767743717067","name":"Hewboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7155ba9b0f2f8bfbf6e255edee57d7b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586767743717067","idStr":"3586767743717067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176046608","repostId":"1165880037","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1165880037","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626846705,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1165880037?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-21 13:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML Holding EPS beats by €0.03, misses on revenue<blockquote>ASML Holding EPS 超过预期 0.03 欧元，营收不及预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165880037","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"ASML Holding NV: Q2 GAAP EPS of €2.52beats by €0.03.\nRevenue of €4B (+20.1% Y/Y) misses by €120M.\nQ2","content":"<p><ul>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML Holding NV</a></b>: Q2 GAAP EPS of €2.52beats by €0.03.</li>  <li>Revenue of €4B (+20.1% Y/Y)&nbsp;misses by €120M.</li>  <li>Q2 net bookings of €8.3 billion</li>  <li>ASML announces a new share buyback program of up to €9 billion to be executed by December 31, 2023.</li>  <li>\"Our second-quarter net sales came in at €4.0 billion, which is within our guidance. The gross margin came in at 50.9%, above our guidance, which is mainly due to higher revenue in software upgrades as customers want to increase capacity quickly, as well as one-off revenue accounting releases. Our second-quarter net bookings came in at €8.3 billion, including €4.9 billion from EUV systems, bringing the total backlog at €17.5 billion,\"&nbsp;said ASML President and Chief Executive Officer&nbsp;Peter Wennink.</li>  <li><b>Guidance:</b>&nbsp;The company expects third-quarter net sales between €5.2 billion and €5.4 billion with a gross margin between 51% and 52%, R&amp;D costs of around €645 million and SG&amp;A costs of around €180 million. The estimated annualized effective tax rate is expected to be around 15% for 2021.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">阿斯麦控股有限公司</a></b>：第二季度 GAAP 每股收益为 2.52 欧元，超出 0.03 欧元。</li><li>€4B 的收入（同比增长 20.1%）低于预期 €1.2 亿。</li><li>第二季度净预订量为 83 亿欧元</li><li>ASML 宣布一项高达 90 亿欧元的新股票回购计划，将于 2023 年 12 月 31 日之前执行。</li><li>“我们第二季度净销售额为 40 亿欧元，符合我们的指导。毛利率为 50.9%，高于我们的指导，这主要是由于客户希望快速增加产能，软件升级收入增加，以及一次性收入会计发布。我们第二季度净预订量为 83 亿欧元，其中 EUV systems 的 49 亿欧元，使总积压订单达到 175 亿欧元，”ASML 总裁兼首席执行官 Peter Wennink 说道。</li><li><b>指导意见：</b>该公司预计第三季度净销售额在 52 亿欧元至 54 亿欧元之间，毛利率在 51% 至 52% 之间，研发成本约为 6.45 亿欧元，SG&amp;A 成本约为 1.8 亿欧元。二零二一年的估计年化有效税率预计约为15%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML Holding EPS beats by €0.03, misses on revenue<blockquote>ASML Holding EPS 超过预期 0.03 欧元，营收不及预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML Holding EPS beats by €0.03, misses on revenue<blockquote>ASML Holding EPS 超过预期 0.03 欧元，营收不及预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-21 13:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">ASML Holding NV</a></b>: Q2 GAAP EPS of €2.52beats by €0.03.</li>  <li>Revenue of €4B (+20.1% Y/Y)&nbsp;misses by €120M.</li>  <li>Q2 net bookings of €8.3 billion</li>  <li>ASML announces a new share buyback program of up to €9 billion to be executed by December 31, 2023.</li>  <li>\"Our second-quarter net sales came in at €4.0 billion, which is within our guidance. The gross margin came in at 50.9%, above our guidance, which is mainly due to higher revenue in software upgrades as customers want to increase capacity quickly, as well as one-off revenue accounting releases. Our second-quarter net bookings came in at €8.3 billion, including €4.9 billion from EUV systems, bringing the total backlog at €17.5 billion,\"&nbsp;said ASML President and Chief Executive Officer&nbsp;Peter Wennink.</li>  <li><b>Guidance:</b>&nbsp;The company expects third-quarter net sales between €5.2 billion and €5.4 billion with a gross margin between 51% and 52%, R&amp;D costs of around €645 million and SG&amp;A costs of around €180 million. The estimated annualized effective tax rate is expected to be around 15% for 2021.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">阿斯麦控股有限公司</a></b>：第二季度 GAAP 每股收益为 2.52 欧元，超出 0.03 欧元。</li><li>€4B 的收入（同比增长 20.1%）低于预期 €1.2 亿。</li><li>第二季度净预订量为 83 亿欧元</li><li>ASML 宣布一项高达 90 亿欧元的新股票回购计划，将于 2023 年 12 月 31 日之前执行。</li><li>“我们第二季度净销售额为 40 亿欧元，符合我们的指导。毛利率为 50.9%，高于我们的指导，这主要是由于客户希望快速增加产能，软件升级收入增加，以及一次性收入会计发布。我们第二季度净预订量为 83 亿欧元，其中 EUV systems 的 49 亿欧元，使总积压订单达到 175 亿欧元，”ASML 总裁兼首席执行官 Peter Wennink 说道。</li><li><b>指导意见：</b>该公司预计第三季度净销售额在 52 亿欧元至 54 亿欧元之间，毛利率在 51% 至 52% 之间，研发成本约为 6.45 亿欧元，SG&amp;A 成本约为 1.8 亿欧元。二零二一年的估计年化有效税率预计约为15%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3717203-asml-holding-eps-beats-by-003-misses-on-revenue\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/news/3717203-asml-holding-eps-beats-by-003-misses-on-revenue","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165880037","content_text":"ASML Holding NV: Q2 GAAP EPS of €2.52beats by €0.03.\nRevenue of €4B (+20.1% Y/Y) misses by €120M.\nQ2 net bookings of €8.3 billion\nASML announces a new share buyback program of up to €9 billion to be executed by December 31, 2023.\n\"Our second-quarter net sales came in at €4.0 billion, which is within our guidance. The gross margin came in at 50.9%, above our guidance, which is mainly due to higher revenue in software upgrades as customers want to increase capacity quickly, as well as one-off revenue accounting releases. Our second-quarter net bookings came in at €8.3 billion, including €4.9 billion from EUV systems, bringing the total backlog at €17.5 billion,\" said ASML President and Chief Executive Officer Peter Wennink.\nGuidance: The company expects third-quarter net sales between €5.2 billion and €5.4 billion with a gross margin between 51% and 52%, R&D costs of around €645 million and SG&A costs of around €180 million. The estimated annualized effective tax rate is expected to be around 15% for 2021.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2118,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179439783,"gmtCreate":1626570288542,"gmtModify":1633925852167,"author":{"id":"3586767743717067","authorId":"3586767743717067","name":"Hewboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7155ba9b0f2f8bfbf6e255edee57d7b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586767743717067","idStr":"3586767743717067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like 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09:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: The Untold Truth<blockquote>Palantir：不为人知的真相</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180977741","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base an","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base and its bleak margin profile.</li>  <li>But the company is actually doing well in terms of customer growth, margin expansion and government order wins.</li>  <li>Investors with a long-term time horizon may want to accumulate its shares on potential price corrections.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6abc7f93f4c7e615f66dca20523d1c16\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1077\"><span>C Flanigan/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 经常因其高估值倍数、停滞不前的客户群和惨淡的利润率而受到批评。</li><li>但该公司实际上在客户增长、利润率扩张和政府订单赢得方面表现良好。</li><li>具有长期期限的投资者可能希望在潜在的价格调整时积累股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>弗拉尼根/盖蒂图片娱乐公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir (PLTR) is lately being lambasted in various investing forums on speculative grounds such as how its growth momentum could fizzle out soon, how its margin profile is dragging the company down and that the stock doesn’t justify its price premium. But the company isn't as bad. On the contrary, the data analytics firm is performing well on several parameters – such as customer growth, government order wins and margin expansion – which should come as an encouraging sign for its long-side investors and dispel such speculative bearish narratives. Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) 最近在各种投资论坛上遭到抨击，理由是投机性的，如其增长势头可能很快就会消失，其利润率状况正在拖累公司，以及该股无法证明其溢价的合理性。但这家公司并没有那么糟糕。相反，这家数据分析公司在客户增长、政府订单中标和利润率扩张等多个参数上表现良好，这对其多头投资者来说应该是一个令人鼓舞的迹象，并消除此类投机性的看跌言论。让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rapid Customer Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户快速增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears have been criticizing Palantir for its bespoke functionality ever since it went public. Its platforms involve customization for various workflows and customer needs, so bears feel the company faces difficulty in onboarding several customers at once and as a result, it’s bottlenecked and its growth momentum can fizzle out. While I respect contrasting opinions, fact of the matter here is that Palantir doesn’t seem to be struggling with customer adds.</p><p><blockquote>自 Palantir 上市以来，Bears 一直批评其定制功能。bears 的平台需要针对各种工作流程和客户需求进行定制，因此 bears 认为该公司很难同时招聘多家客户，因此出现瓶颈，增长势头可能会减弱。虽然我尊重不同的意见，但事实是，Palantir 似乎并没有在增加客户方面苦苦挣扎。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s customer count increased by over 7% on a sequential basis in Q1 2021. Our database at Business Quant reveals that this pace of growth is actually higher than that reported by some of the other renowned names in the software application and infrastructure industries. This immediately dispels the narrative that Palantir faces difficulty in scaling customer relationships due to its bespoke features, whenit's performing better than peers in this regard.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第一季度，公司客户数量环比增长超过 7%。我们在Business Quant的数据库显示，这一增长率实际上高于软件应用和基础设施行业其他一些知名企业的报告。这立即消除了 Palantir 因其定制功能而在扩大客户关系方面面临困难的说法，而 Palantir 在这方面的表现优于同行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37577e60466b8a980efd8bee77b02711\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company’s elevated pace of customer additions shouldn’t come as a surprise to my readers. I’ve explained in my prior articles how the company is undertaking a slew of measures – such as adopting a customer-friendly&nbsp;payment model, ramping up its&nbsp;sales function&nbsp;and introducing&nbsp;free trials&nbsp;for major enterprises – to expand its customer base. These initiatives were announced only a few months ago, and will continue for the rest of FY21, so I expect Palantir to continue adding customers at a rapid rate in near future as well.</p><p><blockquote>该公司增加客户的速度加快应该不会让我的读者感到意外。我在之前的文章中解释了该公司如何采取一系列措施来扩大客户群，如采用客户友好的支付模式、加强销售功能以及为大型企业提供免费试用。这些举措仅在几个月前才宣布，并将持续到 2021 财年的剩余时间，因此我预计 Palantir 在不久的将来也将继续快速增加客户。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, there’s no denying that Palantir’s customer base isn’t as sizable as some of its peers, but that’s also where its growth opportunity lies. It suggests that Palantir is yet to penetrate its target market in a big way and that its lower base effect makes it easier for the company to continue expanding its customer base at elevated rates.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，不可否认的是，Palantir 的客户群不如一些同行庞大，但这也是其增长机会所在。这表明 Palantir 尚未大规模渗透其目标市场，其较低的基数效应使该公司更容易以较高的速度继续扩大其客户群。</blockquote></p><p> There are broadly four takeaways here, which, by the way, the bears seem to discount time and again. These are:</p><p><blockquote>这里大致有四点要点，顺便说一句，空头似乎一次又一次地打折。这些是：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's target market isn't saturated yet and it can still find new customers with ease,</li>  <li>These new customers are bound to lift the company’s revenue higher in 2021 by a varied magnitude, depending on their contract value,</li>  <li>If these are recurring contracts, then that’s going to boost Palantir’s future revenue projections and guidance,</li>  <li>If these new customers eventually ramp up their spend, then that's also going to boost Palantir’s future cash flows.</li> </ul> Regarding the last bullet, it's worth noting that Palantir’s top 20 customers, in general, have significantly ramped up their spending on the company’s data analytics platforms in each of the last 10 years. This new batch of customers, and any future customer additions, could also go through this spending expansion phase in the subsequent years and gradually boost Palantir’s revenue along the way. So, we must give due importance to its rapid pace of customer adds and not take it lightly.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 的目标市场尚未饱和，仍然可以轻松找到新客户，</li><li>这些新客户必将在 2021 年提高公司的收入，具体取决于他们的合同价值、</li><li>如果这些是经常性合同，那么这将提高 Palantir 未来的收入预测和指导、</li><li>如果这些新客户最终增加了支出，那么这也将促进 Palantir 未来的现金流。</li></ul>关于最后一颗子弹，值得注意的是，在过去 10 年中，Palantir 的前 20 名客户总体上都大幅增加了在公司数据分析平台上的支出。这批新客户以及未来增加的任何客户也可能在随后几年经历这一支出扩张阶段，并在此过程中逐步提高 Palantir 的收入。因此，我们必须对其快速增加的客户速度给予应有的重视，不能掉以轻心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4923a1dd5cc6af812c6dd7b8335f878\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Margin Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>余量扩展</b></blockquote></p><p> Another issue with assessing Palantir’s growth prospects is that the company isn’t profitable yet. While some feel the stock will remain subdued due to its weak margin profile, others feel it can collapse down to single digits. The frustration is understandable given the company posted a net loss of $0.07 per share in its most recent quarter.</p><p><blockquote>评估 Palantir 增长前景的另一个问题是，该公司尚未盈利。虽然一些人认为该股由于利润率疲软而将保持低迷，但其他人认为该股可能会跌至个位数。鉴于该公司最近一个季度每股净亏损 0.07 美元，这种沮丧是可以理解的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/facd3a7bf5326c841c6f0e79d392d160\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"125\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But I wanted to see for myself if Palantir’s margin profile was actually as hopeless as many believe it to be. So, I compiled the margin profiles for about 90 software infrastructure stocks listed on US bourses. There's no denying that the company's net profit margin is in the red. But what's surprising here is that Palantir had actually posted one of the highest sequential net margin expansions in Q1, in its peer group. To the best of my knowledge, this aspect of Palantir’s business hasn’t been discussed on any investing forum.</p><p><blockquote>但我想亲眼看看 Palantir 的利润率是否真的像许多人认为的那样毫无希望。因此，我编制了在美国证券交易所上市的大约90只软件基础设施股票的保证金概况。不可否认，公司净利润率处于亏损状态。但令人惊讶的是，Palantir 实际上在第一季度实现了同行中最高的连续净利润扩张之一。据我所知，Palantir 业务的这一方面还没有在任何投资论坛上讨论过。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25614333f421bbcdaf90b43a6ed8e011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"552\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company may not have been profitable so far, but that doesn’t mean it will remain unprofitable in the future as well. If its recent pace of margin expansion continues in the next several quarters, the company could become profitable in the next 2 to 3 years without sacrificing on its growth momentum. So, let’s give credit where it’s due. The community of professional analysts also shares this line of thought and projects Palantir's margin profile to materially improve going forward.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，该公司可能还没有盈利，但这并不意味着它将来也不会盈利。如果其最近的利润率扩张步伐在未来几个季度继续下去，该公司可能会在未来 2 至 3 年内实现盈利，而不会牺牲其增长势头。因此，让我们在该表扬的地方给予表扬。专业分析师社区也认同这一想法，并预计 Palantir 的利润率将在未来大幅改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0017c547d56295730e8f7f4124935d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"><span>(Source:MarketScreener)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：MarketScreener）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Besides, with public shareholding involved now, its management is likely to be under constant pressure to deliver breakneck revenue growth rates, and/or achieve profitability in the near future, or risk being voted out of their positions. This pressure may not have been as intense prior to its direct listing, when fewer shareholders were involved. So, overall, I don’t think Palantir’s margin profile is hopeless as many believe it to be, and I expect the company to become profitable by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着现在公众持股的参与，其管理层可能会面临持续的压力，以实现惊人的收入增长率和/或在不久的将来实现盈利，或者面临被投票罢免的风险。在直接上市之前，这种压力可能没有那么大，当时参与的股东较少。因此，总体而言，我不认为 Palantir 的利润率状况像许多人认为的那样毫无希望，我预计该公司将在 2024 年实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Government Contract Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>政府合同获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> Moving on, Palantir has been doing extremely well when it comes to securing government contracts. B2G contracts are generally tough to win – given the extensive qualification criteria, long turnaround times and heightened competition – but Palantir seems to have the figured out recipe for success on the government side of its business. For the uninitiated, its revenue from government contracts rose 76% year over year, accounted for about 61% of the company's overall revenue, in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，Palantir 在获得政府合同方面做得非常好。B2G 合同通常很难赢得——考虑到广泛的资格标准、较长的周转时间和加剧的竞争——但 Palantir 似乎已经找到了在政府业务方面取得成功的秘诀。对于外行人来说，第一季度其政府合同收入同比增长76%，约占公司总收入的61%。</blockquote></p><p> Unless the company botches up somewhere, these government agencies are likely going to internally recommend it for varied applications. They won’t have to qualify Palantir time and again for several criteria which could drive these internal cross-agency referrals in a speedy manner and these agencies might even ramp up their spending in pre-existing contracts. So, Palantir just needs to rinse-and-repeat its B2G (Business-to-Government) strategy, and its government revenue could continue growing rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>除非该公司在某个地方出了问题，否则这些政府机构可能会在内部推荐它用于各种应用。他们不必一次又一次地通过 Palantir 的几项标准，这些标准可能会推动这些内部跨机构推荐，这些机构甚至可能会增加在现有合同上的支出。因此，Palantir 只需要清洗并重复其 B2G（企业对政府）战略，其政府收入就可以继续快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has also made steady progress with regards to its government business so far in Q2. Its Q2 is still ongoing, but at the time of this writing, the company has over $36 million worth of new current action obligations from government deals, agreements and contracts, most of which haven’t made the headlines. For the uninitiated, a new deal could be an addition to pre-existing deal, expand the scope of previously agreed upon deliverables, it could be entirely new in nature, have varied execution periods that span from months to years and/or also have a recurring revenue stream attached to it.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，Palantir 在第二季度的政府业务方面也取得了稳步进展。其第二季度仍在进行中，但在撰写本文时，该公司根据政府交易、协议和合同承担了价值超过 3600 万美元的新流动性行动义务，其中大部分尚未成为头条新闻。对于新手来说，新交易可能是对现有交易的补充，扩大了先前商定的交付成果的范围，它可能是全新的，具有从几个月到几年的不同执行期和/或还具有经常性收入流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091203d7b476076ff008ca0c3b0f6ad2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, while there are several variables that prevent us from reliably estimating the near-term revenue impact from these deals, Palantir’s shareholders with a long-term time horizon should feel reassured that their company continues to make steady progress towards growing its government business.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然有几个变量使我们无法可靠地估计这些交易对近期收入的影响，但 Palantir 的长期股东应该可以放心，他们的公司将继续在发展政府业务方面取得稳步进展。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s shares are currently trading at about 43-times its trailing twelve-month sales which is, undeniably, high by conventional standards.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 目前的股价约为过去 12 个月销售额的 43 倍，不可否认，按照传统标准来看，这是一个很高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40584e7d2ca5458e8609338887f80e2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, its rich valuations alone shouldn't be the basis of a bear thesis. Palantir's valuation multiples may be high, but note from the chart above thatits revenue growth rate in Q1 was also higher than most of its peers.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其丰富的估值本身不应成为看跌论点的基础。Palantir 的估值倍数可能很高，但从上图可以看出，第一季度的收入增长率也高于大多数同行。</blockquote></p><p> So, I believe the price premium is justified by the company’s rapid pace of revenue growth (illustrated in the chart above), its qualitative growth catalysts discussed in this article and its relatively secure government revenue stream.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我认为该公司收入增长速度快（如上图所示）、本文讨论的定性增长催化剂以及相对安全的政府收入来源都证明了价格溢价的合理性。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Keeping these factors in mind, investors with a multi-year time horizon may want to increase exposure to Palantir on potential price corrections. The stock is likely to reach new highs as its growth catalysts eventually materialize, and as the company approaches profitability, in the next 2 to 3 years. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这些因素，具有多年投资期限的投资者可能希望在潜在价格调整时增加对 Palantir 的投资。随着其增长催化剂最终实现以及公司接近盈利，该股可能会在未来 2 到 3 年内创下新高。祝你好运!</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: The Untold Truth<blockquote>Palantir：不为人知的真相</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: The Untold Truth<blockquote>Palantir：不为人知的真相</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base and its bleak margin profile.</li>  <li>But the company is actually doing well in terms of customer growth, margin expansion and government order wins.</li>  <li>Investors with a long-term time horizon may want to accumulate its shares on potential price corrections.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6abc7f93f4c7e615f66dca20523d1c16\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1077\"><span>C Flanigan/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 经常因其高估值倍数、停滞不前的客户群和惨淡的利润率而受到批评。</li><li>但该公司实际上在客户增长、利润率扩张和政府订单赢得方面表现良好。</li><li>具有长期期限的投资者可能希望在潜在的价格调整时积累股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>弗拉尼根/盖蒂图片娱乐公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir (PLTR) is lately being lambasted in various investing forums on speculative grounds such as how its growth momentum could fizzle out soon, how its margin profile is dragging the company down and that the stock doesn’t justify its price premium. But the company isn't as bad. On the contrary, the data analytics firm is performing well on several parameters – such as customer growth, government order wins and margin expansion – which should come as an encouraging sign for its long-side investors and dispel such speculative bearish narratives. Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) 最近在各种投资论坛上遭到抨击，理由是投机性的，如其增长势头可能很快就会消失，其利润率状况正在拖累公司，以及该股无法证明其溢价的合理性。但这家公司并没有那么糟糕。相反，这家数据分析公司在客户增长、政府订单中标和利润率扩张等多个参数上表现良好，这对其多头投资者来说应该是一个令人鼓舞的迹象，并消除此类投机性的看跌言论。让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rapid Customer Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户快速增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears have been criticizing Palantir for its bespoke functionality ever since it went public. Its platforms involve customization for various workflows and customer needs, so bears feel the company faces difficulty in onboarding several customers at once and as a result, it’s bottlenecked and its growth momentum can fizzle out. While I respect contrasting opinions, fact of the matter here is that Palantir doesn’t seem to be struggling with customer adds.</p><p><blockquote>自 Palantir 上市以来，Bears 一直批评其定制功能。bears 的平台需要针对各种工作流程和客户需求进行定制，因此 bears 认为该公司很难同时招聘多家客户，因此出现瓶颈，增长势头可能会减弱。虽然我尊重不同的意见，但事实是，Palantir 似乎并没有在增加客户方面苦苦挣扎。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s customer count increased by over 7% on a sequential basis in Q1 2021. Our database at Business Quant reveals that this pace of growth is actually higher than that reported by some of the other renowned names in the software application and infrastructure industries. This immediately dispels the narrative that Palantir faces difficulty in scaling customer relationships due to its bespoke features, whenit's performing better than peers in this regard.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第一季度，公司客户数量环比增长超过 7%。我们在Business Quant的数据库显示，这一增长率实际上高于软件应用和基础设施行业其他一些知名企业的报告。这立即消除了 Palantir 因其定制功能而在扩大客户关系方面面临困难的说法，而 Palantir 在这方面的表现优于同行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37577e60466b8a980efd8bee77b02711\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company’s elevated pace of customer additions shouldn’t come as a surprise to my readers. I’ve explained in my prior articles how the company is undertaking a slew of measures – such as adopting a customer-friendly&nbsp;payment model, ramping up its&nbsp;sales function&nbsp;and introducing&nbsp;free trials&nbsp;for major enterprises – to expand its customer base. These initiatives were announced only a few months ago, and will continue for the rest of FY21, so I expect Palantir to continue adding customers at a rapid rate in near future as well.</p><p><blockquote>该公司增加客户的速度加快应该不会让我的读者感到意外。我在之前的文章中解释了该公司如何采取一系列措施来扩大客户群，如采用客户友好的支付模式、加强销售功能以及为大型企业提供免费试用。这些举措仅在几个月前才宣布，并将持续到 2021 财年的剩余时间，因此我预计 Palantir 在不久的将来也将继续快速增加客户。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, there’s no denying that Palantir’s customer base isn’t as sizable as some of its peers, but that’s also where its growth opportunity lies. It suggests that Palantir is yet to penetrate its target market in a big way and that its lower base effect makes it easier for the company to continue expanding its customer base at elevated rates.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，不可否认的是，Palantir 的客户群不如一些同行庞大，但这也是其增长机会所在。这表明 Palantir 尚未大规模渗透其目标市场，其较低的基数效应使该公司更容易以较高的速度继续扩大其客户群。</blockquote></p><p> There are broadly four takeaways here, which, by the way, the bears seem to discount time and again. These are:</p><p><blockquote>这里大致有四点要点，顺便说一句，空头似乎一次又一次地打折。这些是：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's target market isn't saturated yet and it can still find new customers with ease,</li>  <li>These new customers are bound to lift the company’s revenue higher in 2021 by a varied magnitude, depending on their contract value,</li>  <li>If these are recurring contracts, then that’s going to boost Palantir’s future revenue projections and guidance,</li>  <li>If these new customers eventually ramp up their spend, then that's also going to boost Palantir’s future cash flows.</li> </ul> Regarding the last bullet, it's worth noting that Palantir’s top 20 customers, in general, have significantly ramped up their spending on the company’s data analytics platforms in each of the last 10 years. This new batch of customers, and any future customer additions, could also go through this spending expansion phase in the subsequent years and gradually boost Palantir’s revenue along the way. So, we must give due importance to its rapid pace of customer adds and not take it lightly.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 的目标市场尚未饱和，仍然可以轻松找到新客户，</li><li>这些新客户必将在 2021 年提高公司的收入，具体取决于他们的合同价值、</li><li>如果这些是经常性合同，那么这将提高 Palantir 未来的收入预测和指导、</li><li>如果这些新客户最终增加了支出，那么这也将促进 Palantir 未来的现金流。</li></ul>关于最后一颗子弹，值得注意的是，在过去 10 年中，Palantir 的前 20 名客户总体上都大幅增加了在公司数据分析平台上的支出。这批新客户以及未来增加的任何客户也可能在随后几年经历这一支出扩张阶段，并在此过程中逐步提高 Palantir 的收入。因此，我们必须对其快速增加的客户速度给予应有的重视，不能掉以轻心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4923a1dd5cc6af812c6dd7b8335f878\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Margin Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>余量扩展</b></blockquote></p><p> Another issue with assessing Palantir’s growth prospects is that the company isn’t profitable yet. While some feel the stock will remain subdued due to its weak margin profile, others feel it can collapse down to single digits. The frustration is understandable given the company posted a net loss of $0.07 per share in its most recent quarter.</p><p><blockquote>评估 Palantir 增长前景的另一个问题是，该公司尚未盈利。虽然一些人认为该股由于利润率疲软而将保持低迷，但其他人认为该股可能会跌至个位数。鉴于该公司最近一个季度每股净亏损 0.07 美元，这种沮丧是可以理解的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/facd3a7bf5326c841c6f0e79d392d160\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"125\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But I wanted to see for myself if Palantir’s margin profile was actually as hopeless as many believe it to be. So, I compiled the margin profiles for about 90 software infrastructure stocks listed on US bourses. There's no denying that the company's net profit margin is in the red. But what's surprising here is that Palantir had actually posted one of the highest sequential net margin expansions in Q1, in its peer group. To the best of my knowledge, this aspect of Palantir’s business hasn’t been discussed on any investing forum.</p><p><blockquote>但我想亲眼看看 Palantir 的利润率是否真的像许多人认为的那样毫无希望。因此，我编制了在美国证券交易所上市的大约90只软件基础设施股票的保证金概况。不可否认，公司净利润率处于亏损状态。但令人惊讶的是，Palantir 实际上在第一季度实现了同行中最高的连续净利润扩张之一。据我所知，Palantir 业务的这一方面还没有在任何投资论坛上讨论过。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25614333f421bbcdaf90b43a6ed8e011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"552\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company may not have been profitable so far, but that doesn’t mean it will remain unprofitable in the future as well. If its recent pace of margin expansion continues in the next several quarters, the company could become profitable in the next 2 to 3 years without sacrificing on its growth momentum. So, let’s give credit where it’s due. The community of professional analysts also shares this line of thought and projects Palantir's margin profile to materially improve going forward.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，该公司可能还没有盈利，但这并不意味着它将来也不会盈利。如果其最近的利润率扩张步伐在未来几个季度继续下去，该公司可能会在未来 2 至 3 年内实现盈利，而不会牺牲其增长势头。因此，让我们在该表扬的地方给予表扬。专业分析师社区也认同这一想法，并预计 Palantir 的利润率将在未来大幅改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0017c547d56295730e8f7f4124935d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"><span>(Source:MarketScreener)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：MarketScreener）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Besides, with public shareholding involved now, its management is likely to be under constant pressure to deliver breakneck revenue growth rates, and/or achieve profitability in the near future, or risk being voted out of their positions. This pressure may not have been as intense prior to its direct listing, when fewer shareholders were involved. So, overall, I don’t think Palantir’s margin profile is hopeless as many believe it to be, and I expect the company to become profitable by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着现在公众持股的参与，其管理层可能会面临持续的压力，以实现惊人的收入增长率和/或在不久的将来实现盈利，或者面临被投票罢免的风险。在直接上市之前，这种压力可能没有那么大，当时参与的股东较少。因此，总体而言，我不认为 Palantir 的利润率状况像许多人认为的那样毫无希望，我预计该公司将在 2024 年实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Government Contract Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>政府合同获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> Moving on, Palantir has been doing extremely well when it comes to securing government contracts. B2G contracts are generally tough to win – given the extensive qualification criteria, long turnaround times and heightened competition – but Palantir seems to have the figured out recipe for success on the government side of its business. For the uninitiated, its revenue from government contracts rose 76% year over year, accounted for about 61% of the company's overall revenue, in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，Palantir 在获得政府合同方面做得非常好。B2G 合同通常很难赢得——考虑到广泛的资格标准、较长的周转时间和加剧的竞争——但 Palantir 似乎已经找到了在政府业务方面取得成功的秘诀。对于外行人来说，第一季度其政府合同收入同比增长76%，约占公司总收入的61%。</blockquote></p><p> Unless the company botches up somewhere, these government agencies are likely going to internally recommend it for varied applications. They won’t have to qualify Palantir time and again for several criteria which could drive these internal cross-agency referrals in a speedy manner and these agencies might even ramp up their spending in pre-existing contracts. So, Palantir just needs to rinse-and-repeat its B2G (Business-to-Government) strategy, and its government revenue could continue growing rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>除非该公司在某个地方出了问题，否则这些政府机构可能会在内部推荐它用于各种应用。他们不必一次又一次地通过 Palantir 的几项标准，这些标准可能会推动这些内部跨机构推荐，这些机构甚至可能会增加在现有合同上的支出。因此，Palantir 只需要清洗并重复其 B2G（企业对政府）战略，其政府收入就可以继续快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has also made steady progress with regards to its government business so far in Q2. Its Q2 is still ongoing, but at the time of this writing, the company has over $36 million worth of new current action obligations from government deals, agreements and contracts, most of which haven’t made the headlines. For the uninitiated, a new deal could be an addition to pre-existing deal, expand the scope of previously agreed upon deliverables, it could be entirely new in nature, have varied execution periods that span from months to years and/or also have a recurring revenue stream attached to it.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，Palantir 在第二季度的政府业务方面也取得了稳步进展。其第二季度仍在进行中，但在撰写本文时，该公司根据政府交易、协议和合同承担了价值超过 3600 万美元的新流动性行动义务，其中大部分尚未成为头条新闻。对于新手来说，新交易可能是对现有交易的补充，扩大了先前商定的交付成果的范围，它可能是全新的，具有从几个月到几年的不同执行期和/或还具有经常性收入流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091203d7b476076ff008ca0c3b0f6ad2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, while there are several variables that prevent us from reliably estimating the near-term revenue impact from these deals, Palantir’s shareholders with a long-term time horizon should feel reassured that their company continues to make steady progress towards growing its government business.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然有几个变量使我们无法可靠地估计这些交易对近期收入的影响，但 Palantir 的长期股东应该可以放心，他们的公司将继续在发展政府业务方面取得稳步进展。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s shares are currently trading at about 43-times its trailing twelve-month sales which is, undeniably, high by conventional standards.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 目前的股价约为过去 12 个月销售额的 43 倍，不可否认，按照传统标准来看，这是一个很高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40584e7d2ca5458e8609338887f80e2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, its rich valuations alone shouldn't be the basis of a bear thesis. Palantir's valuation multiples may be high, but note from the chart above thatits revenue growth rate in Q1 was also higher than most of its peers.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其丰富的估值本身不应成为看跌论点的基础。Palantir 的估值倍数可能很高，但从上图可以看出，第一季度的收入增长率也高于大多数同行。</blockquote></p><p> So, I believe the price premium is justified by the company’s rapid pace of revenue growth (illustrated in the chart above), its qualitative growth catalysts discussed in this article and its relatively secure government revenue stream.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我认为该公司收入增长速度快（如上图所示）、本文讨论的定性增长催化剂以及相对安全的政府收入来源都证明了价格溢价的合理性。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Keeping these factors in mind, investors with a multi-year time horizon may want to increase exposure to Palantir on potential price corrections. The stock is likely to reach new highs as its growth catalysts eventually materialize, and as the company approaches profitability, in the next 2 to 3 years. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这些因素，具有多年投资期限的投资者可能希望在潜在价格调整时增加对 Palantir 的投资。随着其增长催化剂最终实现以及公司接近盈利，该股可能会在未来 2 到 3 年内创下新高。祝你好运!</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435125-palantir-the-untold-truth\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435125-palantir-the-untold-truth","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180977741","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base and its bleak margin profile.\nBut the company is actually doing well in terms of customer growth, margin expansion and government order wins.\nInvestors with a long-term time horizon may want to accumulate its shares on potential price corrections.\n\nC Flanigan/Getty Images Entertainment\nPalantir (PLTR) is lately being lambasted in various investing forums on speculative grounds such as how its growth momentum could fizzle out soon, how its margin profile is dragging the company down and that the stock doesn’t justify its price premium. But the company isn't as bad. On the contrary, the data analytics firm is performing well on several parameters – such as customer growth, government order wins and margin expansion – which should come as an encouraging sign for its long-side investors and dispel such speculative bearish narratives. Let's take a closer look.\nRapid Customer Growth\nBears have been criticizing Palantir for its bespoke functionality ever since it went public. Its platforms involve customization for various workflows and customer needs, so bears feel the company faces difficulty in onboarding several customers at once and as a result, it’s bottlenecked and its growth momentum can fizzle out. While I respect contrasting opinions, fact of the matter here is that Palantir doesn’t seem to be struggling with customer adds.\nThe company’s customer count increased by over 7% on a sequential basis in Q1 2021. Our database at Business Quant reveals that this pace of growth is actually higher than that reported by some of the other renowned names in the software application and infrastructure industries. This immediately dispels the narrative that Palantir faces difficulty in scaling customer relationships due to its bespoke features, whenit's performing better than peers in this regard.\n\nThe company’s elevated pace of customer additions shouldn’t come as a surprise to my readers. I’ve explained in my prior articles how the company is undertaking a slew of measures – such as adopting a customer-friendly payment model, ramping up its sales function and introducing free trials for major enterprises – to expand its customer base. These initiatives were announced only a few months ago, and will continue for the rest of FY21, so I expect Palantir to continue adding customers at a rapid rate in near future as well.\nHaving said that, there’s no denying that Palantir’s customer base isn’t as sizable as some of its peers, but that’s also where its growth opportunity lies. It suggests that Palantir is yet to penetrate its target market in a big way and that its lower base effect makes it easier for the company to continue expanding its customer base at elevated rates.\nThere are broadly four takeaways here, which, by the way, the bears seem to discount time and again. These are:\n\nPalantir's target market isn't saturated yet and it can still find new customers with ease,\nThese new customers are bound to lift the company’s revenue higher in 2021 by a varied magnitude, depending on their contract value,\nIf these are recurring contracts, then that’s going to boost Palantir’s future revenue projections and guidance,\nIf these new customers eventually ramp up their spend, then that's also going to boost Palantir’s future cash flows.\n\nRegarding the last bullet, it's worth noting that Palantir’s top 20 customers, in general, have significantly ramped up their spending on the company’s data analytics platforms in each of the last 10 years. This new batch of customers, and any future customer additions, could also go through this spending expansion phase in the subsequent years and gradually boost Palantir’s revenue along the way. So, we must give due importance to its rapid pace of customer adds and not take it lightly.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nMargin Expansion\nAnother issue with assessing Palantir’s growth prospects is that the company isn’t profitable yet. While some feel the stock will remain subdued due to its weak margin profile, others feel it can collapse down to single digits. The frustration is understandable given the company posted a net loss of $0.07 per share in its most recent quarter.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nBut I wanted to see for myself if Palantir’s margin profile was actually as hopeless as many believe it to be. So, I compiled the margin profiles for about 90 software infrastructure stocks listed on US bourses. There's no denying that the company's net profit margin is in the red. But what's surprising here is that Palantir had actually posted one of the highest sequential net margin expansions in Q1, in its peer group. To the best of my knowledge, this aspect of Palantir’s business hasn’t been discussed on any investing forum.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nThe company may not have been profitable so far, but that doesn’t mean it will remain unprofitable in the future as well. If its recent pace of margin expansion continues in the next several quarters, the company could become profitable in the next 2 to 3 years without sacrificing on its growth momentum. So, let’s give credit where it’s due. The community of professional analysts also shares this line of thought and projects Palantir's margin profile to materially improve going forward.\n(Source:MarketScreener)\nBesides, with public shareholding involved now, its management is likely to be under constant pressure to deliver breakneck revenue growth rates, and/or achieve profitability in the near future, or risk being voted out of their positions. This pressure may not have been as intense prior to its direct listing, when fewer shareholders were involved. So, overall, I don’t think Palantir’s margin profile is hopeless as many believe it to be, and I expect the company to become profitable by 2024.\nGovernment Contract Wins\nMoving on, Palantir has been doing extremely well when it comes to securing government contracts. B2G contracts are generally tough to win – given the extensive qualification criteria, long turnaround times and heightened competition – but Palantir seems to have the figured out recipe for success on the government side of its business. For the uninitiated, its revenue from government contracts rose 76% year over year, accounted for about 61% of the company's overall revenue, in Q1.\nUnless the company botches up somewhere, these government agencies are likely going to internally recommend it for varied applications. They won’t have to qualify Palantir time and again for several criteria which could drive these internal cross-agency referrals in a speedy manner and these agencies might even ramp up their spending in pre-existing contracts. So, Palantir just needs to rinse-and-repeat its B2G (Business-to-Government) strategy, and its government revenue could continue growing rapidly.\nPalantir has also made steady progress with regards to its government business so far in Q2. Its Q2 is still ongoing, but at the time of this writing, the company has over $36 million worth of new current action obligations from government deals, agreements and contracts, most of which haven’t made the headlines. For the uninitiated, a new deal could be an addition to pre-existing deal, expand the scope of previously agreed upon deliverables, it could be entirely new in nature, have varied execution periods that span from months to years and/or also have a recurring revenue stream attached to it.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nSo, while there are several variables that prevent us from reliably estimating the near-term revenue impact from these deals, Palantir’s shareholders with a long-term time horizon should feel reassured that their company continues to make steady progress towards growing its government business.\nFinal Thoughts\nPalantir’s shares are currently trading at about 43-times its trailing twelve-month sales which is, undeniably, high by conventional standards.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nHowever, its rich valuations alone shouldn't be the basis of a bear thesis. Palantir's valuation multiples may be high, but note from the chart above thatits revenue growth rate in Q1 was also higher than most of its peers.\nSo, I believe the price premium is justified by the company’s rapid pace of revenue growth (illustrated in the chart above), its qualitative growth catalysts discussed in this article and its relatively secure government revenue stream.\nKeeping these factors in mind, investors with a multi-year time horizon may want to increase exposure to Palantir on potential price corrections. The stock is likely to reach new highs as its growth catalysts eventually materialize, and as the company approaches profitability, in the next 2 to 3 years. Good Luck!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161095287,"gmtCreate":1623895664649,"gmtModify":1634026222878,"author":{"id":"3586767743717067","authorId":"3586767743717067","name":"Hewboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7155ba9b0f2f8bfbf6e255edee57d7b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586767743717067","idStr":"3586767743717067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161095287","repostId":"2144713861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161098668,"gmtCreate":1623895576954,"gmtModify":1634026225523,"author":{"id":"3586767743717067","authorId":"3586767743717067","name":"Hewboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7155ba9b0f2f8bfbf6e255edee57d7b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586767743717067","idStr":"3586767743717067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Commented","listText":"Commented","text":"Commented","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161098668","repostId":"2144713861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169395299,"gmtCreate":1623816215711,"gmtModify":1634027652980,"author":{"id":"3586767743717067","authorId":"3586767743717067","name":"Hewboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7155ba9b0f2f8bfbf6e255edee57d7b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586767743717067","idStr":"3586767743717067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment pls thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Comment pls thanks&nbsp;","text":"Comment pls thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169395299","repostId":"1137428482","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137428482","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623815725,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137428482?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Reasons Netflix Will Win Its Merchandising Gambit<blockquote>Netflix 将赢得营销策略的 2 个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137428482","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The leading premium streaming video service has an online store. It's bigger than you think.","content":"<p>It's easy to be skeptical about last week's launch of&nbsp;<b>Netflix</b>'s(NASDAQ:NFLX)&nbsp;online merch store. The new platform -- available via&nbsp;Netflix.shop-- is limited to selling T-shirts and hoodies themed to its<i>Yasuke</i>and<i>Eden</i>anime. It's just designer streetwear right now, and it's not cheap. T-shirts range in price from $30 to $45. Hypland's Yasuke hoodie is going to set you back a beefy $82, or nearly half a year of a Netflix subscription.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易对上周推出的<b>网飞</b>s（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）在线商品商店。这个新平台（可通过 Netflix.shop 购买）仅限于销售以其为主题的 T 恤和连帽衫<i>康介</i>和<i>伊甸园</i>动漫。现在只是名牌街头服饰，而且不便宜。T恤的价格从30美元到45美元不等。Hypland的Yasuke连帽衫将花费你82美元，相当于近半年的网飞订阅费。</blockquote></p><p> However, you may want to think twice before you dismiss the leading premium video service's chances here. There are some good reasons to bet on Netflix's latest move. Let's check them out.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在你拒绝领先的优质视频服务的机会之前，你可能要三思。有一些充分的理由押注 Netflix 的最新举措。我们去看看。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/434a5606f0aa105dc2200617936db7bd\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Netflix is just getting started</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. Netflix 才刚刚起步</b></blockquote></p><p> This is obviously just the opening act of Netflix.shop. You can get third-party -- admittedly unlicensed -- shirts for a lot less elsewhere. It will be harder to duplicate the<i>Yasuke</i>and<i>Eden</i>action figures that Netflix is promising will roll out later this month.</p><p><blockquote>这显然只是Netflix.shop的开场行为。你可以在其他地方以更低的价格买到第三方——公认是未经许可的——衬衫。复制<i>康介</i>和<i>伊甸园</i>网飞承诺的动作人物将于本月晚些时候推出。</blockquote></p><p> Limited-edition apparel and decor inspired by<i>Lupin</i>-- with the second season just dropping into your Netflix queue -- will hit the digital storefront this month. Last week's launch also teased upcoming exclusive<i>Stranger Things</i>and<i>The Witcher</i>product lines. Reports also have Netflix working on a<i>Bridgerton</i>clothing line alongside live events. And Fans of<i>La Casa de Papel</i>-- aka<i>Money Heist</i>-- should be on the lookout for proprietary merch.</p><p><blockquote>限量版服装和装饰灵感来自<i>鲁邦</i>-- 第二季刚刚进入您的 Netflix 队列 -- 将于本月登陆数字店面。上周的发布会还预告了即将推出的独家<i>奇怪的事情</i>和<i>巫师</i>产品线。据报道，Netflix 还在开发<i>布里奇顿</i>现场活动旁边的服装系列。和粉丝<i>纸屋</i>-- 又名<i>抢劫钱财</i>-- 应该留意专有商品。</blockquote></p><p> Don't judge Netflix's new foray into the e-tail of physical merch based on what you see on today's landing page. The store will get bigger, and you'll get there once they roll around to paddling a new revenue stream based on one of your favorite shows.</p><p><blockquote>不要根据你在今天的登录页面上看到的内容来判断网飞进军实体电子商务的新尝试。商店会变得更大，一旦他们开始根据你最喜欢的节目之一划出新的收入流，你就会到达那里。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Never underestimate the Netflix audience</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.永远不要低估Netflix的观众</b></blockquote></p><p> It's not smart to bet against Netflix. It doesn't make a move unless it has thoroughly thought things through. How many times were we asking Netflix to rent video games by mail during its red envelope days? How many analysts have wondered about the money that Netflix could rake in it if sold ads on top of its streams in this era of rising connected-TV rates?</p><p><blockquote>押注网飞是不明智的。除非它彻底考虑清楚，否则它不会采取行动。在网飞的红包时代，我们有多少次要求它通过邮件租赁电子游戏？有多少分析师想知道，在这个联网电视费率不断上涨的时代，如果 Netflix 在其流媒体上出售广告，可以从中赚到多少钱？</blockquote></p><p> Netflix is way smarter than me. It may also be smarter than you when it comes to how it runs its business. Bloomberg is reporting that Netflix is in the process of hiring heads of consumer products, podcasts, and video game businesses that don't currently exist. If they see the light of day -- as we're seeing with consumer product -- it's because the company knows what it's doing.</p><p><blockquote>网飞比我聪明多了。在如何经营业务方面，它也可能比你聪明。彭博社报道称，网飞正在招聘目前不存在的消费品、播客和视频游戏业务的负责人。如果他们看到了曙光——就像我们在消费品上看到的那样——那是因为公司知道自己在做什么。</blockquote></p><p> Netflix had&nbsp;207.6 million subscribersat the end of March, and we're talking about entire families here. The reach and breadth is larger than the account base. It's a captive audience spending hours a day getting lost in Netflix's growing digital catalog of content.</p><p><blockquote>截至 3 月底，Netflix 拥有 2.076 亿订户，我们这里谈论的是整个家庭。覆盖面和广度大于账户基础。这是一个被俘虏的观众，每天花几个小时迷失在网飞不断增长的数字内容目录中。</blockquote></p><p> Folks trust Netflix to get it right. They stick around, even if it means prices keep moving higher. Netflix has increased its monthly rates in the U.S.five times over the last seven years, and the sub count is always higher by the time the next hike rolls around.</p><p><blockquote>人们相信网飞会把事情做好。它们会留下来，即使这意味着价格不断上涨。过去七年里，Netflix 已五次提高美国的月费率，而且到下一次加息时，子费率总是更高。</blockquote></p><p> Netflix is a&nbsp;media stock. It's not a surprise that traditional media behemoths are generating significant sums of incremental revenue through vibrant consumer product sales. Why wouldn't Netflix -- a company that's been collecting gobs of data on your viewing habits for years -- be as good at nailing what you'll want to buy next as it is at knowing what you want to view next? We may never see a theme park, though I would be the first in line through the turnstiles of Netflixlandia to ride the<i>Ozark</i>roller coaster or experience the<i>Stranger Things</i>dark ride. Selling unique merch to an engaged audience will be a lot easier, and unlike that<i>Ozark</i>coaster there are no height requirements or seat restraints to keep you from making the most of the consumer products ride.</p><p><blockquote>网飞是一只媒体股。传统媒体巨头通过充满活力的消费品销售产生大量增量收入，这并不奇怪。为什么网飞——一家多年来一直在收集大量关于你观看习惯的数据的公司——不能像知道你下一步想买什么一样擅长确定你下一步想买什么？我们可能永远不会看到主题公园，尽管我会是第一个通过 Netflixlandia 十字转门乘坐主题公园的人<i>欧扎克</i>过山车或体验<i>奇怪的事情</i>黑暗骑行。向参与的受众销售独特的商品会容易得多，不同之处在于<i>欧扎克</i>过山车没有高度要求或座椅限制，以阻止您充分利用消费品。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Reasons Netflix Will Win Its Merchandising Gambit<blockquote>Netflix 将赢得营销策略的 2 个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Reasons Netflix Will Win Its Merchandising Gambit<blockquote>Netflix 将赢得营销策略的 2 个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 11:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It's easy to be skeptical about last week's launch of&nbsp;<b>Netflix</b>'s(NASDAQ:NFLX)&nbsp;online merch store. The new platform -- available via&nbsp;Netflix.shop-- is limited to selling T-shirts and hoodies themed to its<i>Yasuke</i>and<i>Eden</i>anime. It's just designer streetwear right now, and it's not cheap. T-shirts range in price from $30 to $45. Hypland's Yasuke hoodie is going to set you back a beefy $82, or nearly half a year of a Netflix subscription.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易对上周推出的<b>网飞</b>s（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）在线商品商店。这个新平台（可通过 Netflix.shop 购买）仅限于销售以其为主题的 T 恤和连帽衫<i>康介</i>和<i>伊甸园</i>动漫。现在只是名牌街头服饰，而且不便宜。T恤的价格从30美元到45美元不等。Hypland的Yasuke连帽衫将花费你82美元，相当于近半年的网飞订阅费。</blockquote></p><p> However, you may want to think twice before you dismiss the leading premium video service's chances here. There are some good reasons to bet on Netflix's latest move. Let's check them out.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在你拒绝领先的优质视频服务的机会之前，你可能要三思。有一些充分的理由押注 Netflix 的最新举措。我们去看看。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/434a5606f0aa105dc2200617936db7bd\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Netflix is just getting started</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. Netflix 才刚刚起步</b></blockquote></p><p> This is obviously just the opening act of Netflix.shop. You can get third-party -- admittedly unlicensed -- shirts for a lot less elsewhere. It will be harder to duplicate the<i>Yasuke</i>and<i>Eden</i>action figures that Netflix is promising will roll out later this month.</p><p><blockquote>这显然只是Netflix.shop的开场行为。你可以在其他地方以更低的价格买到第三方——公认是未经许可的——衬衫。复制<i>康介</i>和<i>伊甸园</i>网飞承诺的动作人物将于本月晚些时候推出。</blockquote></p><p> Limited-edition apparel and decor inspired by<i>Lupin</i>-- with the second season just dropping into your Netflix queue -- will hit the digital storefront this month. Last week's launch also teased upcoming exclusive<i>Stranger Things</i>and<i>The Witcher</i>product lines. Reports also have Netflix working on a<i>Bridgerton</i>clothing line alongside live events. And Fans of<i>La Casa de Papel</i>-- aka<i>Money Heist</i>-- should be on the lookout for proprietary merch.</p><p><blockquote>限量版服装和装饰灵感来自<i>鲁邦</i>-- 第二季刚刚进入您的 Netflix 队列 -- 将于本月登陆数字店面。上周的发布会还预告了即将推出的独家<i>奇怪的事情</i>和<i>巫师</i>产品线。据报道，Netflix 还在开发<i>布里奇顿</i>现场活动旁边的服装系列。和粉丝<i>纸屋</i>-- 又名<i>抢劫钱财</i>-- 应该留意专有商品。</blockquote></p><p> Don't judge Netflix's new foray into the e-tail of physical merch based on what you see on today's landing page. The store will get bigger, and you'll get there once they roll around to paddling a new revenue stream based on one of your favorite shows.</p><p><blockquote>不要根据你在今天的登录页面上看到的内容来判断网飞进军实体电子商务的新尝试。商店会变得更大，一旦他们开始根据你最喜欢的节目之一划出新的收入流，你就会到达那里。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Never underestimate the Netflix audience</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.永远不要低估Netflix的观众</b></blockquote></p><p> It's not smart to bet against Netflix. It doesn't make a move unless it has thoroughly thought things through. How many times were we asking Netflix to rent video games by mail during its red envelope days? How many analysts have wondered about the money that Netflix could rake in it if sold ads on top of its streams in this era of rising connected-TV rates?</p><p><blockquote>押注网飞是不明智的。除非它彻底考虑清楚，否则它不会采取行动。在网飞的红包时代，我们有多少次要求它通过邮件租赁电子游戏？有多少分析师想知道，在这个联网电视费率不断上涨的时代，如果 Netflix 在其流媒体上出售广告，可以从中赚到多少钱？</blockquote></p><p> Netflix is way smarter than me. It may also be smarter than you when it comes to how it runs its business. Bloomberg is reporting that Netflix is in the process of hiring heads of consumer products, podcasts, and video game businesses that don't currently exist. If they see the light of day -- as we're seeing with consumer product -- it's because the company knows what it's doing.</p><p><blockquote>网飞比我聪明多了。在如何经营业务方面，它也可能比你聪明。彭博社报道称，网飞正在招聘目前不存在的消费品、播客和视频游戏业务的负责人。如果他们看到了曙光——就像我们在消费品上看到的那样——那是因为公司知道自己在做什么。</blockquote></p><p> Netflix had&nbsp;207.6 million subscribersat the end of March, and we're talking about entire families here. The reach and breadth is larger than the account base. It's a captive audience spending hours a day getting lost in Netflix's growing digital catalog of content.</p><p><blockquote>截至 3 月底，Netflix 拥有 2.076 亿订户，我们这里谈论的是整个家庭。覆盖面和广度大于账户基础。这是一个被俘虏的观众，每天花几个小时迷失在网飞不断增长的数字内容目录中。</blockquote></p><p> Folks trust Netflix to get it right. They stick around, even if it means prices keep moving higher. Netflix has increased its monthly rates in the U.S.five times over the last seven years, and the sub count is always higher by the time the next hike rolls around.</p><p><blockquote>人们相信网飞会把事情做好。它们会留下来，即使这意味着价格不断上涨。过去七年里，Netflix 已五次提高美国的月费率，而且到下一次加息时，子费率总是更高。</blockquote></p><p> Netflix is a&nbsp;media stock. It's not a surprise that traditional media behemoths are generating significant sums of incremental revenue through vibrant consumer product sales. Why wouldn't Netflix -- a company that's been collecting gobs of data on your viewing habits for years -- be as good at nailing what you'll want to buy next as it is at knowing what you want to view next? We may never see a theme park, though I would be the first in line through the turnstiles of Netflixlandia to ride the<i>Ozark</i>roller coaster or experience the<i>Stranger Things</i>dark ride. Selling unique merch to an engaged audience will be a lot easier, and unlike that<i>Ozark</i>coaster there are no height requirements or seat restraints to keep you from making the most of the consumer products ride.</p><p><blockquote>网飞是一只媒体股。传统媒体巨头通过充满活力的消费品销售产生大量增量收入，这并不奇怪。为什么网飞——一家多年来一直在收集大量关于你观看习惯的数据的公司——不能像知道你下一步想买什么一样擅长确定你下一步想买什么？我们可能永远不会看到主题公园，尽管我会是第一个通过 Netflixlandia 十字转门乘坐主题公园的人<i>欧扎克</i>过山车或体验<i>奇怪的事情</i>黑暗骑行。向参与的受众销售独特的商品会容易得多，不同之处在于<i>欧扎克</i>过山车没有高度要求或座椅限制，以阻止您充分利用消费品。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/2-reasons-netflix-will-win-its-merchandising-gambi/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/2-reasons-netflix-will-win-its-merchandising-gambi/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137428482","content_text":"It's easy to be skeptical about last week's launch of Netflix's(NASDAQ:NFLX) online merch store. The new platform -- available via Netflix.shop-- is limited to selling T-shirts and hoodies themed to itsYasukeandEdenanime. It's just designer streetwear right now, and it's not cheap. T-shirts range in price from $30 to $45. Hypland's Yasuke hoodie is going to set you back a beefy $82, or nearly half a year of a Netflix subscription.\nHowever, you may want to think twice before you dismiss the leading premium video service's chances here. There are some good reasons to bet on Netflix's latest move. Let's check them out.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Netflix is just getting started\nThis is obviously just the opening act of Netflix.shop. You can get third-party -- admittedly unlicensed -- shirts for a lot less elsewhere. It will be harder to duplicate theYasukeandEdenaction figures that Netflix is promising will roll out later this month.\nLimited-edition apparel and decor inspired byLupin-- with the second season just dropping into your Netflix queue -- will hit the digital storefront this month. Last week's launch also teased upcoming exclusiveStranger ThingsandThe Witcherproduct lines. Reports also have Netflix working on aBridgertonclothing line alongside live events. And Fans ofLa Casa de Papel-- akaMoney Heist-- should be on the lookout for proprietary merch.\nDon't judge Netflix's new foray into the e-tail of physical merch based on what you see on today's landing page. The store will get bigger, and you'll get there once they roll around to paddling a new revenue stream based on one of your favorite shows.\n2. Never underestimate the Netflix audience\nIt's not smart to bet against Netflix. It doesn't make a move unless it has thoroughly thought things through. How many times were we asking Netflix to rent video games by mail during its red envelope days? How many analysts have wondered about the money that Netflix could rake in it if sold ads on top of its streams in this era of rising connected-TV rates?\nNetflix is way smarter than me. It may also be smarter than you when it comes to how it runs its business. Bloomberg is reporting that Netflix is in the process of hiring heads of consumer products, podcasts, and video game businesses that don't currently exist. If they see the light of day -- as we're seeing with consumer product -- it's because the company knows what it's doing.\nNetflix had 207.6 million subscribersat the end of March, and we're talking about entire families here. The reach and breadth is larger than the account base. It's a captive audience spending hours a day getting lost in Netflix's growing digital catalog of content.\nFolks trust Netflix to get it right. They stick around, even if it means prices keep moving higher. Netflix has increased its monthly rates in the U.S.five times over the last seven years, and the sub count is always higher by the time the next hike rolls around.\nNetflix is a media stock. It's not a surprise that traditional media behemoths are generating significant sums of incremental revenue through vibrant consumer product sales. Why wouldn't Netflix -- a company that's been collecting gobs of data on your viewing habits for years -- be as good at nailing what you'll want to buy next as it is at knowing what you want to view next? We may never see a theme park, though I would be the first in line through the turnstiles of Netflixlandia to ride theOzarkroller coaster or experience theStranger Thingsdark ride. Selling unique merch to an engaged audience will be a lot easier, and unlike thatOzarkcoaster there are no height requirements or seat restraints to keep you from making the most of the consumer products ride.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169393877,"gmtCreate":1623816089599,"gmtModify":1634027657337,"author":{"id":"3586767743717067","authorId":"3586767743717067","name":"Hewboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7155ba9b0f2f8bfbf6e255edee57d7b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586767743717067","idStr":"3586767743717067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Commented&nbsp;","listText":"Commented&nbsp;","text":"Commented","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169393877","repostId":"1141264092","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1141264092","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623811561,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1141264092?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 10:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Fisker The Next Short Squeeze?<blockquote>菲斯克是下一个空头挤压吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141264092","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nFSR is up 72% since my bullish call just a month ago.\nWith that sort of move, caution is wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>FSR is up 72% since my bullish call just a month ago.</li>  <li>With that sort of move, caution is warranted on further gains.</li>  <li>New fundamental developments lay out the future path for Fisker.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8cfc5757fb9bcd2dad4f529e916092c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>jonathanfilskov-photography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我一个月前的看涨看涨期权以来，FSR 上涨了 72%。</li><li>有了这样的举动，就有必要对进一步上涨保持谨慎。</li><li>新的基本发展为菲斯克规划了未来的道路。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>jonathanfilskov-摄影/iStock via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The electric vehicle space has been, let’s say, volatile over the past year or so. OG&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA) continues to dwarf all other comers in terms of market cap, but there are numerous new competitors, many of which are so new, they don’t even have any revenue yet. One such example is the reincarnated&nbsp;<b>Fisker Inc.</b>(FSR), which is founder Henrik Fisker’s second go at making an electric automaker.</p><p><blockquote>可以说，在过去一年左右的时间里，电动汽车领域一直不稳定。和<b>特斯拉</b>(特斯拉）在市值方面继续让所有其他竞争对手相形见绌，但新的竞争对手不胜枚举，其中许多竞争对手还很新，甚至还没有任何收入。转世就是这样一个例子<b>菲斯克公司。</b>(FSR)，这是创始人亨里克-菲斯克（Henrik Fisker）第二次尝试创建电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> I wrote apieceon Fisker about a month ago when the share price was $10.69, saying it was a great time to buy. Shares are 72% higher than that today – a<i>massive</i>move in the space of four weeks – but such is the nature of the game in electric vehicles. Up 72%, the big question is, do you continue to hold? In this case, I think the answer is “no”, but with some caveats.</p><p><blockquote>大约一个月前，当股价为 10.69 美元时，我给 apieceon Fisker 写了一封信，说现在是买入的好时机。股价比今天上涨 72% – a<i>巨大的</i>在四周内移动——但这就是电动汽车的本质。上涨72%，最大的问题是，你会继续持有吗？在这种情况下，我认为答案是 “否”，但有一些注意事项。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b7e34a03823eba6302e3194baa808ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：股票图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, let’s take a look at the chart, which highlights just how volatile this thing really is. Prior support in the low-$14s was lost during the last downturn, and the stock eventually bottomed at $9.61. Since then, shares have<i>doubled</i>, and we’ve seen a complete reset in terms of sentiment for Fisker. One thing you must understand is that Fisker and other zero-revenue EV makers trade on momentum and sentiment rather than fundamentals, so you must be nimble.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们来看看图表，它突出了这个东西到底有多么不稳定。此前14美元低点的支撑位在上次低迷期间失去，该股最终触底9.61美元。此后，股票<i>双倍</i>我们看到菲斯克的情绪完全重置。你必须明白的一件事是，菲斯克和其他零收入电动汽车制造商的交易取决于势头和情绪，而不是基本面，所以你必须灵活。</blockquote></p><p> I would look for that low-$14 area to hold as support on the next pullback, but I’ll also note that it isn’t all that strong, having failed miserably last time there was a selloff. But if the stock is going to bounce, that will likely be the area it will happen.</p><p><blockquote>我会将 14 美元的低点区域作为下一次回调的支撑，但我也会注意到，该区域并不那么强劲，上次抛售时曾惨败。但如果股票要反弹，那很可能就是反弹的领域。</blockquote></p><p> I’ll also note the PPO is very overbought, and is very close to the same levels where prior rallies have lost steam and eventually rolled over. That means the odds of a further rally from here are greatly diminishing, as the bulls have made a Herculean push already, and there are signs the push is ending, at least temporarily.</p><p><blockquote>我还要指出，PPO 非常超买，非常接近之前反弹失去动力并最终翻盘的水平。这意味着从这里进一步反弹的可能性正在大大降低，因为多头已经做出了巨大的推动，而且有迹象表明推动正在结束，至少是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> The 14-day RSI is showing similar behavior, as it is rolling over after reaching extreme overbought conditions. The point of all of this is that this stock has doubled in the space of a month, and the rally looks tired. I don’t see a reasonable path meaningfully higher here, but in the EV space, anything can happen. But the bottom line is that the rally looks tired to me, and I think the most prudent course of action is to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry.</p><p><blockquote>14 天 RSI 也表现出类似的行为，因为它在达到极端超买条件后正在翻转。这一切的要点是，这只股票在一个月的时间里翻了一番，而且涨势看起来很疲惫。我在这里看不到一条合理的更高路径，但在电动汽车领域，任何事情都可能发生。但底线是，反弹在我看来很疲惫，我认为最谨慎的做法是获利了结并等待更低的重新进入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New developments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新发展</b></blockquote></p><p> There have been some interesting developments since my last update on Fisker, and ones that have the potential to drive the share price over time.</p><p><blockquote>自从我上次更新 Fisker 以来，出现了一些有趣的进展，并且随着时间的推移，这些进展有可能推动股价。</blockquote></p><p> First up, short interest in Fisker is soaring, and after the numerous highly-shorted stocks we’ve seen go to the moon this year, that’s worth noting. Below is Fisker’s short interest for reference.</p><p><blockquote>首先，对 Fisker 的空头兴趣正在飙升，在今年我们看到的众多高度做空的股票纷纷下跌之后，这一点值得注意。以下是菲斯克的空头利息，供参考。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd732eb0644d9370ff55d207057d6485\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Short interest has roughly quadrupled since February, and is rising all the time. The kinds of rallies that we’ve seen in Fisker can cause short squeezes because shorts on the wrong side of a parabolic rally can often panic buy to cover their shorts, leading to a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>自二月份以来，空头兴趣大约翻了两番，并且一直在上升。我们在菲斯克看到的那种反弹会导致空头挤压，因为抛物线反弹反面的空头往往会恐慌性买入来弥补空头，从而导致空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker’s current rally lacks the volume of a short squeeze, so I firmly believe this rally is not a result of high short interest, but is instead buyers just buying the stock. If shorts throw in the towel, Fisker could squeeze a lot higher than it is today. To be clear, I’m not saying Fisker is the next short squeeze, but what I am saying is that 45M shares short is roughly seven days’ worth of normal volume, so it’s significant. I certainly also would not short Fisker at these levels for that reason.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克目前的反弹缺乏空头挤压的成交量，因此我坚信这次反弹不是空头兴趣高的结果，而是买家刚刚买入股票的结果。如果空头认输，菲斯克的股价可能会比今天高得多。需要明确的是，我并不是说菲斯克是下一个做空对象，但我想说的是，4500 万股的做空量大约相当于七天的正常成交量，所以这意义重大。出于这个原因，我当然也不会在这些水平上做空菲斯克。</blockquote></p><p> In short, I do not believe Fisker is the next short squeeze candidate because squeezes usually occur when a stock is at or near a top, and thus most or all short sellers are underwater. Fisker isn't anywhere close to its former high, and given how tired the rally looks today, I see the odds of that occurring as low.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，我不认为菲斯克是下一个空头挤压候选人，因为挤压通常发生在股票处于或接近顶部时，因此大多数或所有卖空者都处于水下。菲斯克距离之前的高点还很远，考虑到今天的反弹看起来多么疲惫，我认为这种情况发生的可能性很低。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> From a fundamental perspective, Fisker continues to make progress towards making production a reality of its Ocean SUV, as evidenced in itsQ1 report. The company ended the quarter with $985 million in cash, which is good enough for about 10 quarters at the current run rate; in Q1, the company spent $29 million on operating activities, and $66 million in capex. The company also said the majority of the Ocean has been sourced, which is improving cost visibility as prior questions have become answers.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面角度来看，菲斯克在实现其海洋SUV的生产方面继续取得进展，正如其第一季度报告所证明的那样。该公司本季度末拥有 9.85 亿美元现金，按照目前的运行速度，这足够维持大约 10 个季度；第一季度，该公司在运营活动上花费了 2900 万美元，在资本支出上花费了 6600 万美元。该公司还表示，大部分海洋都是采购的，这提高了成本的可见性，因为之前的问题已经成为答案。</blockquote></p><p> I don’t think Fisker has unlimited runway in terms of cash, but it should have enough to get to production of the Ocean, which is still slated for late this year, or early next year. That’s very important because Fisker needs the cash to start rolling in fairly soon, or further capital raises will be necessary.</p><p><blockquote>我不认为菲斯克在现金方面有无限的发展空间，但它应该有足够的资金来制作《海洋》，该片仍定于今年年底或明年初上映。这一点非常重要，因为菲斯克需要现金尽快开始滚动，否则就需要进一步融资。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker says it has 16k reservations for Oceans at this point, but as we know, reservations for new vehicles are very low cost for the consumer, and don’t represent an obligation to buy. Given this, I take them with a grain of salt. But on the plus side, Fisker has done essentially no advertising, and I’d be willing to bet the vast majority of Americans have no idea what Fisker is. That indicates that there may be some legs to the Ocean, but we’ll have to wait and see.</p><p><blockquote>Fisker 表示，目前该公司已为 Oceans 预订了 1.6 万辆，但据我们所知，预订新车对消费者来说成本非常低，并不构成购买的义务。有鉴于此，我对它们持保留态度。但从好的方面来看，菲斯克基本上没有做过广告，我敢打赌，绝大多数美国人根本不知道菲斯克是什么。这表明可能会有一些通往海洋的腿，但我们还得拭目以待。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps most importantly, Fisker has an ambitious plan to produce a sub-$30k EV, currently calledProject PEAR. The company has signed Foxconn to make the vehicle, which won’t be available for another two years or so. But it represents another step towards Fisker becoming more mainstream, and if the company can execute, it could grab big chunks of market share. I’ll caveat that producing sub-$30k EVs is no small task because the batteries are very expensive. This is why others have struggled to do the same thing, and I have no reason to think Fisker won’t struggle as well. However, if the Ocean is a success, and provides the cash to develop PEAR, Fisker could be off to the races. PEAR is just an idea at this point, so don’t get too excited, but Fisker certainly has grand plans.</p><p><blockquote>也许最重要的是，菲斯克有一个雄心勃勃的计划来生产一款售价低于 3 万美元的电动汽车，目前称为 Project PEAR。该公司已与富士康签约生产这款车，但这款车还要两年左右才能上市。但这代表着菲斯克走向更加主流的又一步，如果该公司能够执行，它可能会抢占大块市场份额。我要提醒的是，生产低于 3 万美元的电动汽车并非易事，因为电池非常昂贵。这就是为什么其他人都在努力做同样的事情，我没有理由认为菲斯克不会也在努力。然而，如果海洋是成功的，并提供了开发梨的现金，菲斯克可能会去参加比赛。PEAR 目前只是一个想法，所以不要太兴奋，但 Fisker 肯定有宏伟的计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation remains mixed</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值仍然好坏参半</b></blockquote></p><p> The tricky thing about valuing startups is that the targets – whether it is revenue or earnings – move all the time. In Fisker’s case, it is apparent that some targets were probably a bit optimistic, especially for revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对初创公司进行估值的棘手之处在于，目标——无论是收入还是盈利——一直在变化。就菲斯克而言，很明显，有些目标可能有点乐观，尤其是在收入方面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52fe37a0a60e26d5c3aba548bd4b0b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Estimates for the out years have come up slightly in the past month – likely due to analysts building PEAR into projections – but in the past six months, estimates are off by a third in some cases. You have to remember if you buy this stock that Fisker isn’t slated to receive<i>any</i>revenue until next year, and even then, progress will start slowly. But if Fisker does achieve $8+ billion in revenue by 2025, buying the stock today will have proven a prescient move. There are just so many steps between now and then that the ride will be extremely volatile to say the least.</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，对未来几年的预测略有上升——可能是由于分析师将 PEAR 纳入预测——但在过去六个月中，在某些情况下，预测偏离了三分之一。你必须记住，如果你购买了菲斯克不打算收到的这只股票<i>任何</i>收入要到明年，即便如此，进展也会开始缓慢。但如果菲斯克到 2025 年确实实现 80 多亿美元的收入，那么今天购买该股票将被证明是一个有先见之明的举动。从现在到那时有太多的步骤，至少可以说，旅程将非常不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> That is illustrated nicely by EPS estimates.</p><p><blockquote>每股收益估计很好地说明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730bfe2971ecbf2c150c244c474bd7c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> EPS is almost certainly going to be negative for at least this year and next year, but if production ramps the way it should for Ocean, Fisker has an outside chance at hitting breakeven in 2023. If scale is achieved, we could see very strong EPS, with 2025 current at $3.72 per share, and 2026 at $4.95. If Ocean succeeds, and Fisker can produce PEAR in sufficient numbers, these estimates could become reality. But you can see the consternation among market participants in that a stock with $5 in EPS five years from now is trading for $18,<i>after</i>doubling in a month. In other words, the share price is pricing in the fact that these estimates are simply guesses at this point. Said another way, if there was some certainty around $5 in EPS in 2026, it would be reasonable to see a multiple of 10 or 12 on that number, or a share price of $50 to $60. We're at a small fraction of that, which is pricing in the massive uncertainty of the company achieving these results.</p><p><blockquote>几乎可以肯定，至少今年和明年的每股收益将为负，但如果 Ocean 的产量像应有的那样增加，Fisker 就有机会在 2023 年实现盈亏平衡。如果实现规模，我们可能会看到非常强劲的每股收益，2025 年目前为每股 3.72 美元，2026 年为每股 4.95 美元。如果 Ocean 取得成功，并且 Fisker 能够生产足够数量的梨，这些估计可能会成为现实。但你可以看到市场参与者的恐慌，因为五年后每股收益为 5 美元的股票现在交易价格为 18 美元，<i>之后</i>一个月翻倍。换句话说，股价正在定价，因为这些估计在这一点上只是猜测。换句话说，如果 2026 年每股收益在 5 美元左右有一定的确定性，那么该数字的倍数是 10 或 12，或者股价在 50 至 60 美元之间是合理的。我们只占其中的一小部分，这是对公司实现这些结果的巨大不确定性进行定价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> The bottom line on Fisker is that the company is so far from making any sort of meaningful revenue – and even further from profits – that it is mostly a momentum trade as a result. The stock has doubled in the past month, and I see cracks in the rally’s strength, so I think it is once again time to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry price.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克的底线是，该公司远未产生任何有意义的收入，甚至更未产生利润，因此它主要是一种动量交易。该股在过去一个月里翻了一番，我看到了反弹的强度出现了裂缝，因此我认为又到了获利了结并等待更低的重新入场价格的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> I think Fisker has the potential to be a winner in the long-term, but the path to get there is fraught with obstacles. I once again see potential and current price fairly balanced, and for that reason, I’m back to neutral on Fisker.</p><p><blockquote>我认为菲斯克有潜力成为长期赢家，但实现这一目标的道路充满了障碍。我再次看到潜在价格和当前价格相当平衡，因此，我对菲斯克的看法又回到了中性。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Fisker The Next Short Squeeze?<blockquote>菲斯克是下一个空头挤压吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Fisker The Next Short Squeeze?<blockquote>菲斯克是下一个空头挤压吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 10:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>FSR is up 72% since my bullish call just a month ago.</li>  <li>With that sort of move, caution is warranted on further gains.</li>  <li>New fundamental developments lay out the future path for Fisker.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8cfc5757fb9bcd2dad4f529e916092c\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>jonathanfilskov-photography/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我一个月前的看涨看涨期权以来，FSR 上涨了 72%。</li><li>有了这样的举动，就有必要对进一步上涨保持谨慎。</li><li>新的基本发展为菲斯克规划了未来的道路。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>jonathanfilskov-摄影/iStock via Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The electric vehicle space has been, let’s say, volatile over the past year or so. OG&nbsp;<b>Tesla</b>(TSLA) continues to dwarf all other comers in terms of market cap, but there are numerous new competitors, many of which are so new, they don’t even have any revenue yet. One such example is the reincarnated&nbsp;<b>Fisker Inc.</b>(FSR), which is founder Henrik Fisker’s second go at making an electric automaker.</p><p><blockquote>可以说，在过去一年左右的时间里，电动汽车领域一直不稳定。和<b>特斯拉</b>(特斯拉）在市值方面继续让所有其他竞争对手相形见绌，但新的竞争对手不胜枚举，其中许多竞争对手还很新，甚至还没有任何收入。转世就是这样一个例子<b>菲斯克公司。</b>(FSR)，这是创始人亨里克-菲斯克（Henrik Fisker）第二次尝试创建电动汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> I wrote apieceon Fisker about a month ago when the share price was $10.69, saying it was a great time to buy. Shares are 72% higher than that today – a<i>massive</i>move in the space of four weeks – but such is the nature of the game in electric vehicles. Up 72%, the big question is, do you continue to hold? In this case, I think the answer is “no”, but with some caveats.</p><p><blockquote>大约一个月前，当股价为 10.69 美元时，我给 apieceon Fisker 写了一封信，说现在是买入的好时机。股价比今天上涨 72% – a<i>巨大的</i>在四周内移动——但这就是电动汽车的本质。上涨72%，最大的问题是，你会继续持有吗？在这种情况下，我认为答案是 “否”，但有一些注意事项。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b7e34a03823eba6302e3194baa808ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"615\"><span>Source: StockCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：股票图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> First, let’s take a look at the chart, which highlights just how volatile this thing really is. Prior support in the low-$14s was lost during the last downturn, and the stock eventually bottomed at $9.61. Since then, shares have<i>doubled</i>, and we’ve seen a complete reset in terms of sentiment for Fisker. One thing you must understand is that Fisker and other zero-revenue EV makers trade on momentum and sentiment rather than fundamentals, so you must be nimble.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们来看看图表，它突出了这个东西到底有多么不稳定。此前14美元低点的支撑位在上次低迷期间失去，该股最终触底9.61美元。此后，股票<i>双倍</i>我们看到菲斯克的情绪完全重置。你必须明白的一件事是，菲斯克和其他零收入电动汽车制造商的交易取决于势头和情绪，而不是基本面，所以你必须灵活。</blockquote></p><p> I would look for that low-$14 area to hold as support on the next pullback, but I’ll also note that it isn’t all that strong, having failed miserably last time there was a selloff. But if the stock is going to bounce, that will likely be the area it will happen.</p><p><blockquote>我会将 14 美元的低点区域作为下一次回调的支撑，但我也会注意到，该区域并不那么强劲，上次抛售时曾惨败。但如果股票要反弹，那很可能就是反弹的领域。</blockquote></p><p> I’ll also note the PPO is very overbought, and is very close to the same levels where prior rallies have lost steam and eventually rolled over. That means the odds of a further rally from here are greatly diminishing, as the bulls have made a Herculean push already, and there are signs the push is ending, at least temporarily.</p><p><blockquote>我还要指出，PPO 非常超买，非常接近之前反弹失去动力并最终翻盘的水平。这意味着从这里进一步反弹的可能性正在大大降低，因为多头已经做出了巨大的推动，而且有迹象表明推动正在结束，至少是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> The 14-day RSI is showing similar behavior, as it is rolling over after reaching extreme overbought conditions. The point of all of this is that this stock has doubled in the space of a month, and the rally looks tired. I don’t see a reasonable path meaningfully higher here, but in the EV space, anything can happen. But the bottom line is that the rally looks tired to me, and I think the most prudent course of action is to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry.</p><p><blockquote>14 天 RSI 也表现出类似的行为，因为它在达到极端超买条件后正在翻转。这一切的要点是，这只股票在一个月的时间里翻了一番，而且涨势看起来很疲惫。我在这里看不到一条合理的更高路径，但在电动汽车领域，任何事情都可能发生。但底线是，反弹在我看来很疲惫，我认为最谨慎的做法是获利了结并等待更低的重新进入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New developments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新发展</b></blockquote></p><p> There have been some interesting developments since my last update on Fisker, and ones that have the potential to drive the share price over time.</p><p><blockquote>自从我上次更新 Fisker 以来，出现了一些有趣的进展，并且随着时间的推移，这些进展有可能推动股价。</blockquote></p><p> First up, short interest in Fisker is soaring, and after the numerous highly-shorted stocks we’ve seen go to the moon this year, that’s worth noting. Below is Fisker’s short interest for reference.</p><p><blockquote>首先，对 Fisker 的空头兴趣正在飙升，在今年我们看到的众多高度做空的股票纷纷下跌之后，这一点值得注意。以下是菲斯克的空头利息，供参考。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd732eb0644d9370ff55d207057d6485\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\"><span>Source: YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Short interest has roughly quadrupled since February, and is rising all the time. The kinds of rallies that we’ve seen in Fisker can cause short squeezes because shorts on the wrong side of a parabolic rally can often panic buy to cover their shorts, leading to a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>自二月份以来，空头兴趣大约翻了两番，并且一直在上升。我们在菲斯克看到的那种反弹会导致空头挤压，因为抛物线反弹反面的空头往往会恐慌性买入来弥补空头，从而导致空头挤压。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker’s current rally lacks the volume of a short squeeze, so I firmly believe this rally is not a result of high short interest, but is instead buyers just buying the stock. If shorts throw in the towel, Fisker could squeeze a lot higher than it is today. To be clear, I’m not saying Fisker is the next short squeeze, but what I am saying is that 45M shares short is roughly seven days’ worth of normal volume, so it’s significant. I certainly also would not short Fisker at these levels for that reason.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克目前的反弹缺乏空头挤压的成交量，因此我坚信这次反弹不是空头兴趣高的结果，而是买家刚刚买入股票的结果。如果空头认输，菲斯克的股价可能会比今天高得多。需要明确的是，我并不是说菲斯克是下一个做空对象，但我想说的是，4500 万股的做空量大约相当于七天的正常成交量，所以这意义重大。出于这个原因，我当然也不会在这些水平上做空菲斯克。</blockquote></p><p> In short, I do not believe Fisker is the next short squeeze candidate because squeezes usually occur when a stock is at or near a top, and thus most or all short sellers are underwater. Fisker isn't anywhere close to its former high, and given how tired the rally looks today, I see the odds of that occurring as low.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，我不认为菲斯克是下一个空头挤压候选人，因为挤压通常发生在股票处于或接近顶部时，因此大多数或所有卖空者都处于水下。菲斯克距离之前的高点还很远，考虑到今天的反弹看起来多么疲惫，我认为这种情况发生的可能性很低。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> From a fundamental perspective, Fisker continues to make progress towards making production a reality of its Ocean SUV, as evidenced in itsQ1 report. The company ended the quarter with $985 million in cash, which is good enough for about 10 quarters at the current run rate; in Q1, the company spent $29 million on operating activities, and $66 million in capex. The company also said the majority of the Ocean has been sourced, which is improving cost visibility as prior questions have become answers.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面角度来看，菲斯克在实现其海洋SUV的生产方面继续取得进展，正如其第一季度报告所证明的那样。该公司本季度末拥有 9.85 亿美元现金，按照目前的运行速度，这足够维持大约 10 个季度；第一季度，该公司在运营活动上花费了 2900 万美元，在资本支出上花费了 6600 万美元。该公司还表示，大部分海洋都是采购的，这提高了成本的可见性，因为之前的问题已经成为答案。</blockquote></p><p> I don’t think Fisker has unlimited runway in terms of cash, but it should have enough to get to production of the Ocean, which is still slated for late this year, or early next year. That’s very important because Fisker needs the cash to start rolling in fairly soon, or further capital raises will be necessary.</p><p><blockquote>我不认为菲斯克在现金方面有无限的发展空间，但它应该有足够的资金来制作《海洋》，该片仍定于今年年底或明年初上映。这一点非常重要，因为菲斯克需要现金尽快开始滚动，否则就需要进一步融资。</blockquote></p><p> Fisker says it has 16k reservations for Oceans at this point, but as we know, reservations for new vehicles are very low cost for the consumer, and don’t represent an obligation to buy. Given this, I take them with a grain of salt. But on the plus side, Fisker has done essentially no advertising, and I’d be willing to bet the vast majority of Americans have no idea what Fisker is. That indicates that there may be some legs to the Ocean, but we’ll have to wait and see.</p><p><blockquote>Fisker 表示，目前该公司已为 Oceans 预订了 1.6 万辆，但据我们所知，预订新车对消费者来说成本非常低，并不构成购买的义务。有鉴于此，我对它们持保留态度。但从好的方面来看，菲斯克基本上没有做过广告，我敢打赌，绝大多数美国人根本不知道菲斯克是什么。这表明可能会有一些通往海洋的腿，但我们还得拭目以待。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps most importantly, Fisker has an ambitious plan to produce a sub-$30k EV, currently calledProject PEAR. The company has signed Foxconn to make the vehicle, which won’t be available for another two years or so. But it represents another step towards Fisker becoming more mainstream, and if the company can execute, it could grab big chunks of market share. I’ll caveat that producing sub-$30k EVs is no small task because the batteries are very expensive. This is why others have struggled to do the same thing, and I have no reason to think Fisker won’t struggle as well. However, if the Ocean is a success, and provides the cash to develop PEAR, Fisker could be off to the races. PEAR is just an idea at this point, so don’t get too excited, but Fisker certainly has grand plans.</p><p><blockquote>也许最重要的是，菲斯克有一个雄心勃勃的计划来生产一款售价低于 3 万美元的电动汽车，目前称为 Project PEAR。该公司已与富士康签约生产这款车，但这款车还要两年左右才能上市。但这代表着菲斯克走向更加主流的又一步，如果该公司能够执行，它可能会抢占大块市场份额。我要提醒的是，生产低于 3 万美元的电动汽车并非易事，因为电池非常昂贵。这就是为什么其他人都在努力做同样的事情，我没有理由认为菲斯克不会也在努力。然而，如果海洋是成功的，并提供了开发梨的现金，菲斯克可能会去参加比赛。PEAR 目前只是一个想法，所以不要太兴奋，但 Fisker 肯定有宏伟的计划。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation remains mixed</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值仍然好坏参半</b></blockquote></p><p> The tricky thing about valuing startups is that the targets – whether it is revenue or earnings – move all the time. In Fisker’s case, it is apparent that some targets were probably a bit optimistic, especially for revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对初创公司进行估值的棘手之处在于，目标——无论是收入还是盈利——一直在变化。就菲斯克而言，很明显，有些目标可能有点乐观，尤其是在收入方面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52fe37a0a60e26d5c3aba548bd4b0b0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"166\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Estimates for the out years have come up slightly in the past month – likely due to analysts building PEAR into projections – but in the past six months, estimates are off by a third in some cases. You have to remember if you buy this stock that Fisker isn’t slated to receive<i>any</i>revenue until next year, and even then, progress will start slowly. But if Fisker does achieve $8+ billion in revenue by 2025, buying the stock today will have proven a prescient move. There are just so many steps between now and then that the ride will be extremely volatile to say the least.</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，对未来几年的预测略有上升——可能是由于分析师将 PEAR 纳入预测——但在过去六个月中，在某些情况下，预测偏离了三分之一。你必须记住，如果你购买了菲斯克不打算收到的这只股票<i>任何</i>收入要到明年，即便如此，进展也会开始缓慢。但如果菲斯克到 2025 年确实实现 80 多亿美元的收入，那么今天购买该股票将被证明是一个有先见之明的举动。从现在到那时有太多的步骤，至少可以说，旅程将非常不稳定。</blockquote></p><p> That is illustrated nicely by EPS estimates.</p><p><blockquote>每股收益估计很好地说明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/730bfe2971ecbf2c150c244c474bd7c7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> EPS is almost certainly going to be negative for at least this year and next year, but if production ramps the way it should for Ocean, Fisker has an outside chance at hitting breakeven in 2023. If scale is achieved, we could see very strong EPS, with 2025 current at $3.72 per share, and 2026 at $4.95. If Ocean succeeds, and Fisker can produce PEAR in sufficient numbers, these estimates could become reality. But you can see the consternation among market participants in that a stock with $5 in EPS five years from now is trading for $18,<i>after</i>doubling in a month. In other words, the share price is pricing in the fact that these estimates are simply guesses at this point. Said another way, if there was some certainty around $5 in EPS in 2026, it would be reasonable to see a multiple of 10 or 12 on that number, or a share price of $50 to $60. We're at a small fraction of that, which is pricing in the massive uncertainty of the company achieving these results.</p><p><blockquote>几乎可以肯定，至少今年和明年的每股收益将为负，但如果 Ocean 的产量像应有的那样增加，Fisker 就有机会在 2023 年实现盈亏平衡。如果实现规模，我们可能会看到非常强劲的每股收益，2025 年目前为每股 3.72 美元，2026 年为每股 4.95 美元。如果 Ocean 取得成功，并且 Fisker 能够生产足够数量的梨，这些估计可能会成为现实。但你可以看到市场参与者的恐慌，因为五年后每股收益为 5 美元的股票现在交易价格为 18 美元，<i>之后</i>一个月翻倍。换句话说，股价正在定价，因为这些估计在这一点上只是猜测。换句话说，如果 2026 年每股收益在 5 美元左右有一定的确定性，那么该数字的倍数是 10 或 12，或者股价在 50 至 60 美元之间是合理的。我们只占其中的一小部分，这是对公司实现这些结果的巨大不确定性进行定价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> The bottom line on Fisker is that the company is so far from making any sort of meaningful revenue – and even further from profits – that it is mostly a momentum trade as a result. The stock has doubled in the past month, and I see cracks in the rally’s strength, so I think it is once again time to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry price.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克的底线是，该公司远未产生任何有意义的收入，甚至更未产生利润，因此它主要是一种动量交易。该股在过去一个月里翻了一番，我看到了反弹的强度出现了裂缝，因此我认为又到了获利了结并等待更低的重新入场价格的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> I think Fisker has the potential to be a winner in the long-term, but the path to get there is fraught with obstacles. I once again see potential and current price fairly balanced, and for that reason, I’m back to neutral on Fisker.</p><p><blockquote>我认为菲斯克有潜力成为长期赢家，但实现这一目标的道路充满了障碍。我再次看到潜在价格和当前价格相当平衡，因此，我对菲斯克的看法又回到了中性。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434973-is-fisker-the-next-short-squeeze\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FSR":"菲斯克"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434973-is-fisker-the-next-short-squeeze","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141264092","content_text":"Summary\n\nFSR is up 72% since my bullish call just a month ago.\nWith that sort of move, caution is warranted on further gains.\nNew fundamental developments lay out the future path for Fisker.\n\njonathanfilskov-photography/iStock via Getty Images\nThe electric vehicle space has been, let’s say, volatile over the past year or so. OG Tesla(TSLA) continues to dwarf all other comers in terms of market cap, but there are numerous new competitors, many of which are so new, they don’t even have any revenue yet. One such example is the reincarnated Fisker Inc.(FSR), which is founder Henrik Fisker’s second go at making an electric automaker.\nI wrote apieceon Fisker about a month ago when the share price was $10.69, saying it was a great time to buy. Shares are 72% higher than that today – amassivemove in the space of four weeks – but such is the nature of the game in electric vehicles. Up 72%, the big question is, do you continue to hold? In this case, I think the answer is “no”, but with some caveats.\nSource: StockCharts\nFirst, let’s take a look at the chart, which highlights just how volatile this thing really is. Prior support in the low-$14s was lost during the last downturn, and the stock eventually bottomed at $9.61. Since then, shares havedoubled, and we’ve seen a complete reset in terms of sentiment for Fisker. One thing you must understand is that Fisker and other zero-revenue EV makers trade on momentum and sentiment rather than fundamentals, so you must be nimble.\nI would look for that low-$14 area to hold as support on the next pullback, but I’ll also note that it isn’t all that strong, having failed miserably last time there was a selloff. But if the stock is going to bounce, that will likely be the area it will happen.\nI’ll also note the PPO is very overbought, and is very close to the same levels where prior rallies have lost steam and eventually rolled over. That means the odds of a further rally from here are greatly diminishing, as the bulls have made a Herculean push already, and there are signs the push is ending, at least temporarily.\nThe 14-day RSI is showing similar behavior, as it is rolling over after reaching extreme overbought conditions. The point of all of this is that this stock has doubled in the space of a month, and the rally looks tired. I don’t see a reasonable path meaningfully higher here, but in the EV space, anything can happen. But the bottom line is that the rally looks tired to me, and I think the most prudent course of action is to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry.\nNew developments\nThere have been some interesting developments since my last update on Fisker, and ones that have the potential to drive the share price over time.\nFirst up, short interest in Fisker is soaring, and after the numerous highly-shorted stocks we’ve seen go to the moon this year, that’s worth noting. Below is Fisker’s short interest for reference.\nSource: YCharts\nShort interest has roughly quadrupled since February, and is rising all the time. The kinds of rallies that we’ve seen in Fisker can cause short squeezes because shorts on the wrong side of a parabolic rally can often panic buy to cover their shorts, leading to a short squeeze.\nFisker’s current rally lacks the volume of a short squeeze, so I firmly believe this rally is not a result of high short interest, but is instead buyers just buying the stock. If shorts throw in the towel, Fisker could squeeze a lot higher than it is today. To be clear, I’m not saying Fisker is the next short squeeze, but what I am saying is that 45M shares short is roughly seven days’ worth of normal volume, so it’s significant. I certainly also would not short Fisker at these levels for that reason.\nIn short, I do not believe Fisker is the next short squeeze candidate because squeezes usually occur when a stock is at or near a top, and thus most or all short sellers are underwater. Fisker isn't anywhere close to its former high, and given how tired the rally looks today, I see the odds of that occurring as low.\nFrom a fundamental perspective, Fisker continues to make progress towards making production a reality of its Ocean SUV, as evidenced in itsQ1 report. The company ended the quarter with $985 million in cash, which is good enough for about 10 quarters at the current run rate; in Q1, the company spent $29 million on operating activities, and $66 million in capex. The company also said the majority of the Ocean has been sourced, which is improving cost visibility as prior questions have become answers.\nI don’t think Fisker has unlimited runway in terms of cash, but it should have enough to get to production of the Ocean, which is still slated for late this year, or early next year. That’s very important because Fisker needs the cash to start rolling in fairly soon, or further capital raises will be necessary.\nFisker says it has 16k reservations for Oceans at this point, but as we know, reservations for new vehicles are very low cost for the consumer, and don’t represent an obligation to buy. Given this, I take them with a grain of salt. But on the plus side, Fisker has done essentially no advertising, and I’d be willing to bet the vast majority of Americans have no idea what Fisker is. That indicates that there may be some legs to the Ocean, but we’ll have to wait and see.\nPerhaps most importantly, Fisker has an ambitious plan to produce a sub-$30k EV, currently calledProject PEAR. The company has signed Foxconn to make the vehicle, which won’t be available for another two years or so. But it represents another step towards Fisker becoming more mainstream, and if the company can execute, it could grab big chunks of market share. I’ll caveat that producing sub-$30k EVs is no small task because the batteries are very expensive. This is why others have struggled to do the same thing, and I have no reason to think Fisker won’t struggle as well. However, if the Ocean is a success, and provides the cash to develop PEAR, Fisker could be off to the races. PEAR is just an idea at this point, so don’t get too excited, but Fisker certainly has grand plans.\nValuation remains mixed\nThe tricky thing about valuing startups is that the targets – whether it is revenue or earnings – move all the time. In Fisker’s case, it is apparent that some targets were probably a bit optimistic, especially for revenue.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nEstimates for the out years have come up slightly in the past month – likely due to analysts building PEAR into projections – but in the past six months, estimates are off by a third in some cases. You have to remember if you buy this stock that Fisker isn’t slated to receiveanyrevenue until next year, and even then, progress will start slowly. But if Fisker does achieve $8+ billion in revenue by 2025, buying the stock today will have proven a prescient move. There are just so many steps between now and then that the ride will be extremely volatile to say the least.\nThat is illustrated nicely by EPS estimates.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nEPS is almost certainly going to be negative for at least this year and next year, but if production ramps the way it should for Ocean, Fisker has an outside chance at hitting breakeven in 2023. If scale is achieved, we could see very strong EPS, with 2025 current at $3.72 per share, and 2026 at $4.95. If Ocean succeeds, and Fisker can produce PEAR in sufficient numbers, these estimates could become reality. But you can see the consternation among market participants in that a stock with $5 in EPS five years from now is trading for $18,afterdoubling in a month. In other words, the share price is pricing in the fact that these estimates are simply guesses at this point. Said another way, if there was some certainty around $5 in EPS in 2026, it would be reasonable to see a multiple of 10 or 12 on that number, or a share price of $50 to $60. We're at a small fraction of that, which is pricing in the massive uncertainty of the company achieving these results.\nFinal thoughts\nThe bottom line on Fisker is that the company is so far from making any sort of meaningful revenue – and even further from profits – that it is mostly a momentum trade as a result. The stock has doubled in the past month, and I see cracks in the rally’s strength, so I think it is once again time to take profits and wait for a lower re-entry price.\nI think Fisker has the potential to be a winner in the long-term, but the path to get there is fraught with obstacles. I once again see potential and current price fairly balanced, and for that reason, I’m back to neutral on Fisker.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FSR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":968,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169399599,"gmtCreate":1623816065711,"gmtModify":1634027657950,"author":{"id":"3586767743717067","authorId":"3586767743717067","name":"Hewboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7155ba9b0f2f8bfbf6e255edee57d7b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586767743717067","idStr":"3586767743717067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Commented&nbsp;","listText":"Commented&nbsp;","text":"Commented","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169399599","repostId":"169967518","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":169967518,"gmtCreate":1623813203934,"gmtModify":1623814883601,"author":{"id":"3503452965237041","authorId":"3503452965237041","name":"财报研究社pro","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0a6be2bd8feb8dbc30c5eaa2e715bb","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503452965237041","idStr":"3503452965237041"},"themes":[],"title":"“清研精准”元A轮融资，领投机构为百度、小苗朗程","htmlText":"美股研究社消息，企查查APP显示，6月16日，“清研精准”完成A轮融资，领投机构为百度、小苗朗程，跟投机构为京福资产、奇绩创坛，融资金额数千万人民币。企查查信息显示，“清研精准”是一家智能电动汽车全生命周期检测平台，隶属于苏州清研精准汽车科技有限公司，该公司成立于2018年，法定代表人为董汉，注册资本295.238万元人民币，经营范围包含：检验检测服务；机动车检验检测服务；汽车租赁；新能源汽车整车销售；汽车零部件及配件制造；汽车零配件零售等。本文来源：美股研究社，旨在帮助中国投资者理解世界，专注报道美国科技股和中概股，对美股感兴趣的朋友赶紧关注我们","listText":"美股研究社消息，企查查APP显示，6月16日，“清研精准”完成A轮融资，领投机构为百度、小苗朗程，跟投机构为京福资产、奇绩创坛，融资金额数千万人民币。企查查信息显示，“清研精准”是一家智能电动汽车全生命周期检测平台，隶属于苏州清研精准汽车科技有限公司，该公司成立于2018年，法定代表人为董汉，注册资本295.238万元人民币，经营范围包含：检验检测服务；机动车检验检测服务；汽车租赁；新能源汽车整车销售；汽车零部件及配件制造；汽车零配件零售等。本文来源：美股研究社，旨在帮助中国投资者理解世界，专注报道美国科技股和中概股，对美股感兴趣的朋友赶紧关注我们","text":"美股研究社消息，企查查APP显示，6月16日，“清研精准”完成A轮融资，领投机构为百度、小苗朗程，跟投机构为京福资产、奇绩创坛，融资金额数千万人民币。企查查信息显示，“清研精准”是一家智能电动汽车全生命周期检测平台，隶属于苏州清研精准汽车科技有限公司，该公司成立于2018年，法定代表人为董汉，注册资本295.238万元人民币，经营范围包含：检验检测服务；机动车检验检测服务；汽车租赁；新能源汽车整车销售；汽车零部件及配件制造；汽车零配件零售等。本文来源：美股研究社，旨在帮助中国投资者理解世界，专注报道美国科技股和中概股，对美股感兴趣的朋友赶紧关注我们","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0285a385ea358ee140d07c2407dad1fc","width":"1200","height":"720"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169967518","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169399150,"gmtCreate":1623816036570,"gmtModify":1634027658072,"author":{"id":"3586767743717067","authorId":"3586767743717067","name":"Hewboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7155ba9b0f2f8bfbf6e255edee57d7b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586767743717067","idStr":"3586767743717067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Commented&nbsp;","listText":"Commented&nbsp;","text":"Commented","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169399150","repostId":"2143680537","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169307107,"gmtCreate":1623815970709,"gmtModify":1634027659355,"author":{"id":"3586767743717067","authorId":"3586767743717067","name":"Hewboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7155ba9b0f2f8bfbf6e255edee57d7b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3586767743717067","idStr":"3586767743717067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Commented&nbsp;","listText":"Commented&nbsp;","text":"Commented","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169307107","repostId":"1180909583","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180909583","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623812789,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1180909583?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 11:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SPACs could stage a summer comeback<blockquote>SPAC 可能会在夏季卷土重来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180909583","media":"CNN Business","summary":"London (CNN Business) - Special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, were one of the stock marke","content":"<p><div> London (CNN Business) - Special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, were one of the stock market's hottest trends in early 2021, drawing in billionaires, celebrities and athletes. Then, in early ...</p><p><blockquote><div>伦敦（CNN Business）——特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）是2021年初股市最热门的趋势之一，吸引了亿万富翁、名人和运动员。然后，在早期……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/15/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/15/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SPACs could stage a summer comeback<blockquote>SPAC 可能会在夏季卷土重来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSPACs could stage a summer comeback<blockquote>SPAC 可能会在夏季卷土重来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 11:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> London (CNN Business) - Special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, were one of the stock market's hottest trends in early 2021, drawing in billionaires, celebrities and athletes. Then, in early ...</p><p><blockquote><div>伦敦（CNN Business）——特殊目的收购公司（SPAC）是2021年初股市最热门的趋势之一，吸引了亿万富翁、名人和运动员。然后，在早期……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/15/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/15/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/15/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/15/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180909583","content_text":"London (CNN Business) - Special-purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, were one of the stock market's hottest trends in early 2021, drawing in billionaires, celebrities and athletes.\nThen, in early spring, enthusiasm began to wane, as \"blank check\" firms — which raise money from investors and then go hunting for takeover targets — started to receive greater scrutiny from lawmakers and regulators in Washington.\n\"I have deep concerns about the lack of transparency and accountability that is a hallmark of the SPAC process,\" Rep. Maxine Waters, the chair of the House Financial Services Committee, said at a hearing last month.\nBut SPACs could be coming back into vogue. Nine new SPACs raised $1.4 billion last week, according to Bill Smith of Renaissance Capital, making it the busiest week since March.\nMore data: It's clear there's been a marked slowdown. So far this quarter, just 50 new SPACs have listed globally, raising $10.9 billion, according to Dealogic data provided to CNN Business. That's compared to 304 listings that raised $98.4 billion between January and March.\nActivity could pick back up, however, as investors continue to hunt for creative places to park their money. According to a Bank of America survey published Tuesday, 18% of global fund managers say they are taking higher-than-normal risks, up 4 percentage points compared to the previous month.\nWatch this space: While there is still skepticism among some startups that merging with a SPAC is the best way to go public, there are firms willing to take this route instead of pursuing a traditional initial public offering.\nOn Monday, online grocery shop Boxed announced it was going public in an $887 million deal with a SPAC called Seven Oaks Acquisition Corp.\nAnd last week, Vertical Aerospace, a UK electric aircraft manufacturer, said it wouldgo publicby merging with the New York SPAC Broadstone Acquisition Corp., while the banking app Dave said it would merge with a SPAC sponsored by the investment firm Victory Park Capital.\nHedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman's SPAC is also said to be nearing a complex deal with Universal Music Group that would value the business at $40 billion.\nThe success of these arrangements may dictate whether other SPACs searching for companies to take public can do so with ease.So far this quarter, there have been 63 SPAC merger announcements globally, with deal value topping $140.6 billion, according to Dealogic. That's down from 100 SPAC deals worth $227 billion in the first three months of the year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":161095287,"gmtCreate":1623895664649,"gmtModify":1634026222878,"author":{"id":"3586767743717067","authorId":"3586767743717067","name":"Hewboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7155ba9b0f2f8bfbf6e255edee57d7b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586767743717067","authorIdStr":"3586767743717067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","listText":"Pls like and comment&nbsp;","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161095287","repostId":"2144713861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169395299,"gmtCreate":1623816215711,"gmtModify":1634027652980,"author":{"id":"3586767743717067","authorId":"3586767743717067","name":"Hewboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7155ba9b0f2f8bfbf6e255edee57d7b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586767743717067","authorIdStr":"3586767743717067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment pls thanks&nbsp;","listText":"Comment pls thanks&nbsp;","text":"Comment pls thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169395299","repostId":"1137428482","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137428482","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623815725,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137428482?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Reasons Netflix Will Win Its Merchandising Gambit<blockquote>Netflix 将赢得营销策略的 2 个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137428482","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The leading premium streaming video service has an online store. It's bigger than you think.","content":"<p>It's easy to be skeptical about last week's launch of&nbsp;<b>Netflix</b>'s(NASDAQ:NFLX)&nbsp;online merch store. The new platform -- available via&nbsp;Netflix.shop-- is limited to selling T-shirts and hoodies themed to its<i>Yasuke</i>and<i>Eden</i>anime. It's just designer streetwear right now, and it's not cheap. T-shirts range in price from $30 to $45. Hypland's Yasuke hoodie is going to set you back a beefy $82, or nearly half a year of a Netflix subscription.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易对上周推出的<b>网飞</b>s（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）在线商品商店。这个新平台（可通过 Netflix.shop 购买）仅限于销售以其为主题的 T 恤和连帽衫<i>康介</i>和<i>伊甸园</i>动漫。现在只是名牌街头服饰，而且不便宜。T恤的价格从30美元到45美元不等。Hypland的Yasuke连帽衫将花费你82美元，相当于近半年的网飞订阅费。</blockquote></p><p> However, you may want to think twice before you dismiss the leading premium video service's chances here. There are some good reasons to bet on Netflix's latest move. Let's check them out.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在你拒绝领先的优质视频服务的机会之前，你可能要三思。有一些充分的理由押注 Netflix 的最新举措。我们去看看。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/434a5606f0aa105dc2200617936db7bd\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Netflix is just getting started</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. Netflix 才刚刚起步</b></blockquote></p><p> This is obviously just the opening act of Netflix.shop. You can get third-party -- admittedly unlicensed -- shirts for a lot less elsewhere. It will be harder to duplicate the<i>Yasuke</i>and<i>Eden</i>action figures that Netflix is promising will roll out later this month.</p><p><blockquote>这显然只是Netflix.shop的开场行为。你可以在其他地方以更低的价格买到第三方——公认是未经许可的——衬衫。复制<i>康介</i>和<i>伊甸园</i>网飞承诺的动作人物将于本月晚些时候推出。</blockquote></p><p> Limited-edition apparel and decor inspired by<i>Lupin</i>-- with the second season just dropping into your Netflix queue -- will hit the digital storefront this month. Last week's launch also teased upcoming exclusive<i>Stranger Things</i>and<i>The Witcher</i>product lines. Reports also have Netflix working on a<i>Bridgerton</i>clothing line alongside live events. And Fans of<i>La Casa de Papel</i>-- aka<i>Money Heist</i>-- should be on the lookout for proprietary merch.</p><p><blockquote>限量版服装和装饰灵感来自<i>鲁邦</i>-- 第二季刚刚进入您的 Netflix 队列 -- 将于本月登陆数字店面。上周的发布会还预告了即将推出的独家<i>奇怪的事情</i>和<i>巫师</i>产品线。据报道，Netflix 还在开发<i>布里奇顿</i>现场活动旁边的服装系列。和粉丝<i>纸屋</i>-- 又名<i>抢劫钱财</i>-- 应该留意专有商品。</blockquote></p><p> Don't judge Netflix's new foray into the e-tail of physical merch based on what you see on today's landing page. The store will get bigger, and you'll get there once they roll around to paddling a new revenue stream based on one of your favorite shows.</p><p><blockquote>不要根据你在今天的登录页面上看到的内容来判断网飞进军实体电子商务的新尝试。商店会变得更大，一旦他们开始根据你最喜欢的节目之一划出新的收入流，你就会到达那里。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Never underestimate the Netflix audience</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.永远不要低估Netflix的观众</b></blockquote></p><p> It's not smart to bet against Netflix. It doesn't make a move unless it has thoroughly thought things through. How many times were we asking Netflix to rent video games by mail during its red envelope days? How many analysts have wondered about the money that Netflix could rake in it if sold ads on top of its streams in this era of rising connected-TV rates?</p><p><blockquote>押注网飞是不明智的。除非它彻底考虑清楚，否则它不会采取行动。在网飞的红包时代，我们有多少次要求它通过邮件租赁电子游戏？有多少分析师想知道，在这个联网电视费率不断上涨的时代，如果 Netflix 在其流媒体上出售广告，可以从中赚到多少钱？</blockquote></p><p> Netflix is way smarter than me. It may also be smarter than you when it comes to how it runs its business. Bloomberg is reporting that Netflix is in the process of hiring heads of consumer products, podcasts, and video game businesses that don't currently exist. If they see the light of day -- as we're seeing with consumer product -- it's because the company knows what it's doing.</p><p><blockquote>网飞比我聪明多了。在如何经营业务方面，它也可能比你聪明。彭博社报道称，网飞正在招聘目前不存在的消费品、播客和视频游戏业务的负责人。如果他们看到了曙光——就像我们在消费品上看到的那样——那是因为公司知道自己在做什么。</blockquote></p><p> Netflix had&nbsp;207.6 million subscribersat the end of March, and we're talking about entire families here. The reach and breadth is larger than the account base. It's a captive audience spending hours a day getting lost in Netflix's growing digital catalog of content.</p><p><blockquote>截至 3 月底，Netflix 拥有 2.076 亿订户，我们这里谈论的是整个家庭。覆盖面和广度大于账户基础。这是一个被俘虏的观众，每天花几个小时迷失在网飞不断增长的数字内容目录中。</blockquote></p><p> Folks trust Netflix to get it right. They stick around, even if it means prices keep moving higher. Netflix has increased its monthly rates in the U.S.five times over the last seven years, and the sub count is always higher by the time the next hike rolls around.</p><p><blockquote>人们相信网飞会把事情做好。它们会留下来，即使这意味着价格不断上涨。过去七年里，Netflix 已五次提高美国的月费率，而且到下一次加息时，子费率总是更高。</blockquote></p><p> Netflix is a&nbsp;media stock. It's not a surprise that traditional media behemoths are generating significant sums of incremental revenue through vibrant consumer product sales. Why wouldn't Netflix -- a company that's been collecting gobs of data on your viewing habits for years -- be as good at nailing what you'll want to buy next as it is at knowing what you want to view next? We may never see a theme park, though I would be the first in line through the turnstiles of Netflixlandia to ride the<i>Ozark</i>roller coaster or experience the<i>Stranger Things</i>dark ride. Selling unique merch to an engaged audience will be a lot easier, and unlike that<i>Ozark</i>coaster there are no height requirements or seat restraints to keep you from making the most of the consumer products ride.</p><p><blockquote>网飞是一只媒体股。传统媒体巨头通过充满活力的消费品销售产生大量增量收入，这并不奇怪。为什么网飞——一家多年来一直在收集大量关于你观看习惯的数据的公司——不能像知道你下一步想买什么一样擅长确定你下一步想买什么？我们可能永远不会看到主题公园，尽管我会是第一个通过 Netflixlandia 十字转门乘坐主题公园的人<i>欧扎克</i>过山车或体验<i>奇怪的事情</i>黑暗骑行。向参与的受众销售独特的商品会容易得多，不同之处在于<i>欧扎克</i>过山车没有高度要求或座椅限制，以阻止您充分利用消费品。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Reasons Netflix Will Win Its Merchandising Gambit<blockquote>Netflix 将赢得营销策略的 2 个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Reasons Netflix Will Win Its Merchandising Gambit<blockquote>Netflix 将赢得营销策略的 2 个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 11:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It's easy to be skeptical about last week's launch of&nbsp;<b>Netflix</b>'s(NASDAQ:NFLX)&nbsp;online merch store. The new platform -- available via&nbsp;Netflix.shop-- is limited to selling T-shirts and hoodies themed to its<i>Yasuke</i>and<i>Eden</i>anime. It's just designer streetwear right now, and it's not cheap. T-shirts range in price from $30 to $45. Hypland's Yasuke hoodie is going to set you back a beefy $82, or nearly half a year of a Netflix subscription.</p><p><blockquote>人们很容易对上周推出的<b>网飞</b>s（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）在线商品商店。这个新平台（可通过 Netflix.shop 购买）仅限于销售以其为主题的 T 恤和连帽衫<i>康介</i>和<i>伊甸园</i>动漫。现在只是名牌街头服饰，而且不便宜。T恤的价格从30美元到45美元不等。Hypland的Yasuke连帽衫将花费你82美元，相当于近半年的网飞订阅费。</blockquote></p><p> However, you may want to think twice before you dismiss the leading premium video service's chances here. There are some good reasons to bet on Netflix's latest move. Let's check them out.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在你拒绝领先的优质视频服务的机会之前，你可能要三思。有一些充分的理由押注 Netflix 的最新举措。我们去看看。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/434a5606f0aa105dc2200617936db7bd\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Netflix is just getting started</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. Netflix 才刚刚起步</b></blockquote></p><p> This is obviously just the opening act of Netflix.shop. You can get third-party -- admittedly unlicensed -- shirts for a lot less elsewhere. It will be harder to duplicate the<i>Yasuke</i>and<i>Eden</i>action figures that Netflix is promising will roll out later this month.</p><p><blockquote>这显然只是Netflix.shop的开场行为。你可以在其他地方以更低的价格买到第三方——公认是未经许可的——衬衫。复制<i>康介</i>和<i>伊甸园</i>网飞承诺的动作人物将于本月晚些时候推出。</blockquote></p><p> Limited-edition apparel and decor inspired by<i>Lupin</i>-- with the second season just dropping into your Netflix queue -- will hit the digital storefront this month. Last week's launch also teased upcoming exclusive<i>Stranger Things</i>and<i>The Witcher</i>product lines. Reports also have Netflix working on a<i>Bridgerton</i>clothing line alongside live events. And Fans of<i>La Casa de Papel</i>-- aka<i>Money Heist</i>-- should be on the lookout for proprietary merch.</p><p><blockquote>限量版服装和装饰灵感来自<i>鲁邦</i>-- 第二季刚刚进入您的 Netflix 队列 -- 将于本月登陆数字店面。上周的发布会还预告了即将推出的独家<i>奇怪的事情</i>和<i>巫师</i>产品线。据报道，Netflix 还在开发<i>布里奇顿</i>现场活动旁边的服装系列。和粉丝<i>纸屋</i>-- 又名<i>抢劫钱财</i>-- 应该留意专有商品。</blockquote></p><p> Don't judge Netflix's new foray into the e-tail of physical merch based on what you see on today's landing page. The store will get bigger, and you'll get there once they roll around to paddling a new revenue stream based on one of your favorite shows.</p><p><blockquote>不要根据你在今天的登录页面上看到的内容来判断网飞进军实体电子商务的新尝试。商店会变得更大，一旦他们开始根据你最喜欢的节目之一划出新的收入流，你就会到达那里。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Never underestimate the Netflix audience</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.永远不要低估Netflix的观众</b></blockquote></p><p> It's not smart to bet against Netflix. It doesn't make a move unless it has thoroughly thought things through. How many times were we asking Netflix to rent video games by mail during its red envelope days? How many analysts have wondered about the money that Netflix could rake in it if sold ads on top of its streams in this era of rising connected-TV rates?</p><p><blockquote>押注网飞是不明智的。除非它彻底考虑清楚，否则它不会采取行动。在网飞的红包时代，我们有多少次要求它通过邮件租赁电子游戏？有多少分析师想知道，在这个联网电视费率不断上涨的时代，如果 Netflix 在其流媒体上出售广告，可以从中赚到多少钱？</blockquote></p><p> Netflix is way smarter than me. It may also be smarter than you when it comes to how it runs its business. Bloomberg is reporting that Netflix is in the process of hiring heads of consumer products, podcasts, and video game businesses that don't currently exist. If they see the light of day -- as we're seeing with consumer product -- it's because the company knows what it's doing.</p><p><blockquote>网飞比我聪明多了。在如何经营业务方面，它也可能比你聪明。彭博社报道称，网飞正在招聘目前不存在的消费品、播客和视频游戏业务的负责人。如果他们看到了曙光——就像我们在消费品上看到的那样——那是因为公司知道自己在做什么。</blockquote></p><p> Netflix had&nbsp;207.6 million subscribersat the end of March, and we're talking about entire families here. The reach and breadth is larger than the account base. It's a captive audience spending hours a day getting lost in Netflix's growing digital catalog of content.</p><p><blockquote>截至 3 月底，Netflix 拥有 2.076 亿订户，我们这里谈论的是整个家庭。覆盖面和广度大于账户基础。这是一个被俘虏的观众，每天花几个小时迷失在网飞不断增长的数字内容目录中。</blockquote></p><p> Folks trust Netflix to get it right. They stick around, even if it means prices keep moving higher. Netflix has increased its monthly rates in the U.S.five times over the last seven years, and the sub count is always higher by the time the next hike rolls around.</p><p><blockquote>人们相信网飞会把事情做好。它们会留下来，即使这意味着价格不断上涨。过去七年里，Netflix 已五次提高美国的月费率，而且到下一次加息时，子费率总是更高。</blockquote></p><p> Netflix is a&nbsp;media stock. It's not a surprise that traditional media behemoths are generating significant sums of incremental revenue through vibrant consumer product sales. Why wouldn't Netflix -- a company that's been collecting gobs of data on your viewing habits for years -- be as good at nailing what you'll want to buy next as it is at knowing what you want to view next? We may never see a theme park, though I would be the first in line through the turnstiles of Netflixlandia to ride the<i>Ozark</i>roller coaster or experience the<i>Stranger Things</i>dark ride. Selling unique merch to an engaged audience will be a lot easier, and unlike that<i>Ozark</i>coaster there are no height requirements or seat restraints to keep you from making the most of the consumer products ride.</p><p><blockquote>网飞是一只媒体股。传统媒体巨头通过充满活力的消费品销售产生大量增量收入，这并不奇怪。为什么网飞——一家多年来一直在收集大量关于你观看习惯的数据的公司——不能像知道你下一步想买什么一样擅长确定你下一步想买什么？我们可能永远不会看到主题公园，尽管我会是第一个通过 Netflixlandia 十字转门乘坐主题公园的人<i>欧扎克</i>过山车或体验<i>奇怪的事情</i>黑暗骑行。向参与的受众销售独特的商品会容易得多，不同之处在于<i>欧扎克</i>过山车没有高度要求或座椅限制，以阻止您充分利用消费品。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/2-reasons-netflix-will-win-its-merchandising-gambi/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/15/2-reasons-netflix-will-win-its-merchandising-gambi/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137428482","content_text":"It's easy to be skeptical about last week's launch of Netflix's(NASDAQ:NFLX) online merch store. The new platform -- available via Netflix.shop-- is limited to selling T-shirts and hoodies themed to itsYasukeandEdenanime. It's just designer streetwear right now, and it's not cheap. T-shirts range in price from $30 to $45. Hypland's Yasuke hoodie is going to set you back a beefy $82, or nearly half a year of a Netflix subscription.\nHowever, you may want to think twice before you dismiss the leading premium video service's chances here. There are some good reasons to bet on Netflix's latest move. Let's check them out.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\n1. Netflix is just getting started\nThis is obviously just the opening act of Netflix.shop. You can get third-party -- admittedly unlicensed -- shirts for a lot less elsewhere. It will be harder to duplicate theYasukeandEdenaction figures that Netflix is promising will roll out later this month.\nLimited-edition apparel and decor inspired byLupin-- with the second season just dropping into your Netflix queue -- will hit the digital storefront this month. Last week's launch also teased upcoming exclusiveStranger ThingsandThe Witcherproduct lines. Reports also have Netflix working on aBridgertonclothing line alongside live events. And Fans ofLa Casa de Papel-- akaMoney Heist-- should be on the lookout for proprietary merch.\nDon't judge Netflix's new foray into the e-tail of physical merch based on what you see on today's landing page. The store will get bigger, and you'll get there once they roll around to paddling a new revenue stream based on one of your favorite shows.\n2. Never underestimate the Netflix audience\nIt's not smart to bet against Netflix. It doesn't make a move unless it has thoroughly thought things through. How many times were we asking Netflix to rent video games by mail during its red envelope days? How many analysts have wondered about the money that Netflix could rake in it if sold ads on top of its streams in this era of rising connected-TV rates?\nNetflix is way smarter than me. It may also be smarter than you when it comes to how it runs its business. Bloomberg is reporting that Netflix is in the process of hiring heads of consumer products, podcasts, and video game businesses that don't currently exist. If they see the light of day -- as we're seeing with consumer product -- it's because the company knows what it's doing.\nNetflix had 207.6 million subscribersat the end of March, and we're talking about entire families here. The reach and breadth is larger than the account base. It's a captive audience spending hours a day getting lost in Netflix's growing digital catalog of content.\nFolks trust Netflix to get it right. They stick around, even if it means prices keep moving higher. Netflix has increased its monthly rates in the U.S.five times over the last seven years, and the sub count is always higher by the time the next hike rolls around.\nNetflix is a media stock. It's not a surprise that traditional media behemoths are generating significant sums of incremental revenue through vibrant consumer product sales. Why wouldn't Netflix -- a company that's been collecting gobs of data on your viewing habits for years -- be as good at nailing what you'll want to buy next as it is at knowing what you want to view next? We may never see a theme park, though I would be the first in line through the turnstiles of Netflixlandia to ride theOzarkroller coaster or experience theStranger Thingsdark ride. Selling unique merch to an engaged audience will be a lot easier, and unlike thatOzarkcoaster there are no height requirements or seat restraints to keep you from making the most of the consumer products ride.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":651,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160355570,"gmtCreate":1623773349590,"gmtModify":1634028455206,"author":{"id":"3586767743717067","authorId":"3586767743717067","name":"Hewboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7155ba9b0f2f8bfbf6e255edee57d7b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586767743717067","authorIdStr":"3586767743717067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Commented","listText":"Commented","text":"Commented","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160355570","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论市场奇怪的夏季低迷将 VIX 推至新冠疫情爆发以来的最低水平时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静时期可能会持续到本周五的四女巫，届时大量伽马和德尔塔到期并被消除风险，在消除天然下行股票缓冲的过程中（参见“市场低迷以下周五的 Op-Ex 结束的 4 个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基-菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）在谈到周五可能影响市场的运营支出时，对即将到期的 6 月份的运营支出进行了预览，他称之为 “规模庞大，堪比典型的季度”。具体而言，<b>周五有 1.8 万亿美元的 SPX 期权到期，此外还有 2400 亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及 2000 亿美元的 SPX 和 SPX E-mini 期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，在当前现货 10% 以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中任何一个季度都少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，组合账户<b>对于 15-20% 的 SPX 期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到 1.5 万亿美元，仍远高于到期单只股票未平仓合约总额（7750 亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份的大部分未平仓合约将低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰位于3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”引力，直到伽马射线被重新填充。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师随后解释了他认为已实现市场交易量异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的那样——这与长期定位是一致的。考虑一下SPX<b>过去 13 个交易日的实现波动率仅为 5.1%，为 2019 年以来最低的 13 天实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC 上周的合约量是单只股票中最高的（但名义成交量为 70 亿美元/天，远低于 AMZN 领先的 1200 亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量的近 400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的查理·麦切利戈特上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>SPX 极低的实现波动率与 6 月 18 日多头指数 gamma 离开 “街头 ”的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman 呼应了我们上周所说的，即 “一旦头寸更加干净，实现波动率可能会上升”。</b>与此同时，SPX 的 VIX 期货贝塔系数上升表明，如果市场抛售，投资者预计短期伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录库存挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由零售驱动的所有单一股票期权活动中所占的比例很大，以及零售活动的预测价值，都提高了人们对单一股票期权市场的关注度。最近单一股票期权活动的增长集中在低股价股票，导致过去两周的合约交易量中的股价与名义交易量不符。在根据股票市场规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现，过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于 2021 年区间的低点，这意味着最新的涨幅几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是，高盛观察到，短期 SPX 期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与零售参与交易的不断增长是一致的。这也是为什么周五 SPX 到期日小于近期许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期日的临近，其交易量一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用 SPX 到期日的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期日，因为他们会根据事件调整自己的观点。其实，<b>第三个星期五到期的 SPX 期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单只股票交易量： 高盛提出了一个观点--“如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者购买看涨期权产生的单只股票空头范围，他们可能会积极交易一系列超短期 SPX 指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这一范围”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称，“最卖空的名称”，散户投资者正在迎来整个市场的非正统平静期!</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论市场奇怪的夏季低迷将 VIX 推至新冠疫情爆发以来的最低水平时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静时期可能会持续到本周五的四女巫，届时大量伽马和德尔塔到期并被消除风险，在消除天然下行股票缓冲的过程中（参见“市场低迷以下周五的 Op-Ex 结束的 4 个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基-菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）在谈到周五可能影响市场的运营支出时，对即将到期的 6 月份的运营支出进行了预览，他称之为 “规模庞大，堪比典型的季度”。具体而言，<b>周五有 1.8 万亿美元的 SPX 期权到期，此外还有 2400 亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及 2000 亿美元的 SPX 和 SPX E-mini 期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，在当前现货 10% 以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中任何一个季度都少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，组合账户<b>对于 15-20% 的 SPX 期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到 1.5 万亿美元，仍远高于到期单只股票未平仓合约总额（7750 亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份的大部分未平仓合约将低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰位于3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”引力，直到伽马射线被重新填充。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师随后解释了他认为已实现市场交易量异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的那样——这与长期定位是一致的。考虑一下SPX<b>过去 13 个交易日的实现波动率仅为 5.1%，为 2019 年以来最低的 13 天实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC 上周的合约量是单只股票中最高的（但名义成交量为 70 亿美元/天，远低于 AMZN 领先的 1200 亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量的近 400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的查理·麦切利戈特上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>SPX 极低的实现波动率与 6 月 18 日多头指数 gamma 离开 “街头 ”的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman 呼应了我们上周所说的，即 “一旦头寸更加干净，实现波动率可能会上升”。</b>与此同时，SPX 的 VIX 期货贝塔系数上升表明，如果市场抛售，投资者预计短期伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录库存挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由零售驱动的所有单一股票期权活动中所占的比例很大，以及零售活动的预测价值，都提高了人们对单一股票期权市场的关注度。最近单一股票期权活动的增长集中在低股价股票，导致过去两周的合约交易量中的股价与名义交易量不符。在根据股票市场规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现，过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于 2021 年区间的低点，这意味着最新的涨幅几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是，高盛观察到，短期 SPX 期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与零售参与交易的不断增长是一致的。这也是为什么周五 SPX 到期日小于近期许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期日的临近，其交易量一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用 SPX 到期日的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期日，因为他们会根据事件调整自己的观点。其实，<b>第三个星期五到期的 SPX 期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单只股票交易量： 高盛提出了一个观点--“如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者购买看涨期权产生的单只股票空头范围，他们可能会积极交易一系列超短期 SPX 指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这一范围”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称，“最卖空的名称”，散户投资者正在迎来整个市场的非正统平静期!</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161098668,"gmtCreate":1623895576954,"gmtModify":1634026225523,"author":{"id":"3586767743717067","authorId":"3586767743717067","name":"Hewboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7155ba9b0f2f8bfbf6e255edee57d7b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586767743717067","authorIdStr":"3586767743717067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Commented","listText":"Commented","text":"Commented","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161098668","repostId":"2144713861","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167036615,"gmtCreate":1624238817437,"gmtModify":1634009110962,"author":{"id":"3586767743717067","authorId":"3586767743717067","name":"Hewboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7155ba9b0f2f8bfbf6e255edee57d7b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586767743717067","authorIdStr":"3586767743717067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Commented&nbsp;","listText":"Commented&nbsp;","text":"Commented","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167036615","repostId":"2145594707","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3166,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168457740,"gmtCreate":1623981898980,"gmtModify":1634024769179,"author":{"id":"3586767743717067","authorId":"3586767743717067","name":"Hewboon","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7155ba9b0f2f8bfbf6e255edee57d7b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3586767743717067","authorIdStr":"3586767743717067"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Commented&nbsp;","listText":"Commented&nbsp;","text":"Commented","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168457740","repostId":"1180977741","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180977741","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623981539,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1180977741?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: The Untold Truth<blockquote>Palantir：不为人知的真相</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180977741","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base an","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base and its bleak margin profile.</li>  <li>But the company is actually doing well in terms of customer growth, margin expansion and government order wins.</li>  <li>Investors with a long-term time horizon may want to accumulate its shares on potential price corrections.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6abc7f93f4c7e615f66dca20523d1c16\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1077\"><span>C Flanigan/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 经常因其高估值倍数、停滞不前的客户群和惨淡的利润率而受到批评。</li><li>但该公司实际上在客户增长、利润率扩张和政府订单赢得方面表现良好。</li><li>具有长期期限的投资者可能希望在潜在的价格调整时积累股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>弗拉尼根/盖蒂图片娱乐公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir (PLTR) is lately being lambasted in various investing forums on speculative grounds such as how its growth momentum could fizzle out soon, how its margin profile is dragging the company down and that the stock doesn’t justify its price premium. But the company isn't as bad. On the contrary, the data analytics firm is performing well on several parameters – such as customer growth, government order wins and margin expansion – which should come as an encouraging sign for its long-side investors and dispel such speculative bearish narratives. Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) 最近在各种投资论坛上遭到抨击，理由是投机性的，如其增长势头可能很快就会消失，其利润率状况正在拖累公司，以及该股无法证明其溢价的合理性。但这家公司并没有那么糟糕。相反，这家数据分析公司在客户增长、政府订单中标和利润率扩张等多个参数上表现良好，这对其多头投资者来说应该是一个令人鼓舞的迹象，并消除此类投机性的看跌言论。让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rapid Customer Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户快速增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears have been criticizing Palantir for its bespoke functionality ever since it went public. Its platforms involve customization for various workflows and customer needs, so bears feel the company faces difficulty in onboarding several customers at once and as a result, it’s bottlenecked and its growth momentum can fizzle out. While I respect contrasting opinions, fact of the matter here is that Palantir doesn’t seem to be struggling with customer adds.</p><p><blockquote>自 Palantir 上市以来，Bears 一直批评其定制功能。bears 的平台需要针对各种工作流程和客户需求进行定制，因此 bears 认为该公司很难同时招聘多家客户，因此出现瓶颈，增长势头可能会减弱。虽然我尊重不同的意见，但事实是，Palantir 似乎并没有在增加客户方面苦苦挣扎。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s customer count increased by over 7% on a sequential basis in Q1 2021. Our database at Business Quant reveals that this pace of growth is actually higher than that reported by some of the other renowned names in the software application and infrastructure industries. This immediately dispels the narrative that Palantir faces difficulty in scaling customer relationships due to its bespoke features, whenit's performing better than peers in this regard.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第一季度，公司客户数量环比增长超过 7%。我们在Business Quant的数据库显示，这一增长率实际上高于软件应用和基础设施行业其他一些知名企业的报告。这立即消除了 Palantir 因其定制功能而在扩大客户关系方面面临困难的说法，而 Palantir 在这方面的表现优于同行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37577e60466b8a980efd8bee77b02711\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company’s elevated pace of customer additions shouldn’t come as a surprise to my readers. I’ve explained in my prior articles how the company is undertaking a slew of measures – such as adopting a customer-friendly&nbsp;payment model, ramping up its&nbsp;sales function&nbsp;and introducing&nbsp;free trials&nbsp;for major enterprises – to expand its customer base. These initiatives were announced only a few months ago, and will continue for the rest of FY21, so I expect Palantir to continue adding customers at a rapid rate in near future as well.</p><p><blockquote>该公司增加客户的速度加快应该不会让我的读者感到意外。我在之前的文章中解释了该公司如何采取一系列措施来扩大客户群，如采用客户友好的支付模式、加强销售功能以及为大型企业提供免费试用。这些举措仅在几个月前才宣布，并将持续到 2021 财年的剩余时间，因此我预计 Palantir 在不久的将来也将继续快速增加客户。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, there’s no denying that Palantir’s customer base isn’t as sizable as some of its peers, but that’s also where its growth opportunity lies. It suggests that Palantir is yet to penetrate its target market in a big way and that its lower base effect makes it easier for the company to continue expanding its customer base at elevated rates.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，不可否认的是，Palantir 的客户群不如一些同行庞大，但这也是其增长机会所在。这表明 Palantir 尚未大规模渗透其目标市场，其较低的基数效应使该公司更容易以较高的速度继续扩大其客户群。</blockquote></p><p> There are broadly four takeaways here, which, by the way, the bears seem to discount time and again. These are:</p><p><blockquote>这里大致有四点要点，顺便说一句，空头似乎一次又一次地打折。这些是：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's target market isn't saturated yet and it can still find new customers with ease,</li>  <li>These new customers are bound to lift the company’s revenue higher in 2021 by a varied magnitude, depending on their contract value,</li>  <li>If these are recurring contracts, then that’s going to boost Palantir’s future revenue projections and guidance,</li>  <li>If these new customers eventually ramp up their spend, then that's also going to boost Palantir’s future cash flows.</li> </ul> Regarding the last bullet, it's worth noting that Palantir’s top 20 customers, in general, have significantly ramped up their spending on the company’s data analytics platforms in each of the last 10 years. This new batch of customers, and any future customer additions, could also go through this spending expansion phase in the subsequent years and gradually boost Palantir’s revenue along the way. So, we must give due importance to its rapid pace of customer adds and not take it lightly.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 的目标市场尚未饱和，仍然可以轻松找到新客户，</li><li>这些新客户必将在 2021 年提高公司的收入，具体取决于他们的合同价值、</li><li>如果这些是经常性合同，那么这将提高 Palantir 未来的收入预测和指导、</li><li>如果这些新客户最终增加了支出，那么这也将促进 Palantir 未来的现金流。</li></ul>关于最后一颗子弹，值得注意的是，在过去 10 年中，Palantir 的前 20 名客户总体上都大幅增加了在公司数据分析平台上的支出。这批新客户以及未来增加的任何客户也可能在随后几年经历这一支出扩张阶段，并在此过程中逐步提高 Palantir 的收入。因此，我们必须对其快速增加的客户速度给予应有的重视，不能掉以轻心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4923a1dd5cc6af812c6dd7b8335f878\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Margin Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>余量扩展</b></blockquote></p><p> Another issue with assessing Palantir’s growth prospects is that the company isn’t profitable yet. While some feel the stock will remain subdued due to its weak margin profile, others feel it can collapse down to single digits. The frustration is understandable given the company posted a net loss of $0.07 per share in its most recent quarter.</p><p><blockquote>评估 Palantir 增长前景的另一个问题是，该公司尚未盈利。虽然一些人认为该股由于利润率疲软而将保持低迷，但其他人认为该股可能会跌至个位数。鉴于该公司最近一个季度每股净亏损 0.07 美元，这种沮丧是可以理解的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/facd3a7bf5326c841c6f0e79d392d160\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"125\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But I wanted to see for myself if Palantir’s margin profile was actually as hopeless as many believe it to be. So, I compiled the margin profiles for about 90 software infrastructure stocks listed on US bourses. There's no denying that the company's net profit margin is in the red. But what's surprising here is that Palantir had actually posted one of the highest sequential net margin expansions in Q1, in its peer group. To the best of my knowledge, this aspect of Palantir’s business hasn’t been discussed on any investing forum.</p><p><blockquote>但我想亲眼看看 Palantir 的利润率是否真的像许多人认为的那样毫无希望。因此，我编制了在美国证券交易所上市的大约90只软件基础设施股票的保证金概况。不可否认，公司净利润率处于亏损状态。但令人惊讶的是，Palantir 实际上在第一季度实现了同行中最高的连续净利润扩张之一。据我所知，Palantir 业务的这一方面还没有在任何投资论坛上讨论过。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25614333f421bbcdaf90b43a6ed8e011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"552\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company may not have been profitable so far, but that doesn’t mean it will remain unprofitable in the future as well. If its recent pace of margin expansion continues in the next several quarters, the company could become profitable in the next 2 to 3 years without sacrificing on its growth momentum. So, let’s give credit where it’s due. The community of professional analysts also shares this line of thought and projects Palantir's margin profile to materially improve going forward.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，该公司可能还没有盈利，但这并不意味着它将来也不会盈利。如果其最近的利润率扩张步伐在未来几个季度继续下去，该公司可能会在未来 2 至 3 年内实现盈利，而不会牺牲其增长势头。因此，让我们在该表扬的地方给予表扬。专业分析师社区也认同这一想法，并预计 Palantir 的利润率将在未来大幅改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0017c547d56295730e8f7f4124935d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"><span>(Source:MarketScreener)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：MarketScreener）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Besides, with public shareholding involved now, its management is likely to be under constant pressure to deliver breakneck revenue growth rates, and/or achieve profitability in the near future, or risk being voted out of their positions. This pressure may not have been as intense prior to its direct listing, when fewer shareholders were involved. So, overall, I don’t think Palantir’s margin profile is hopeless as many believe it to be, and I expect the company to become profitable by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着现在公众持股的参与，其管理层可能会面临持续的压力，以实现惊人的收入增长率和/或在不久的将来实现盈利，或者面临被投票罢免的风险。在直接上市之前，这种压力可能没有那么大，当时参与的股东较少。因此，总体而言，我不认为 Palantir 的利润率状况像许多人认为的那样毫无希望，我预计该公司将在 2024 年实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Government Contract Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>政府合同获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> Moving on, Palantir has been doing extremely well when it comes to securing government contracts. B2G contracts are generally tough to win – given the extensive qualification criteria, long turnaround times and heightened competition – but Palantir seems to have the figured out recipe for success on the government side of its business. For the uninitiated, its revenue from government contracts rose 76% year over year, accounted for about 61% of the company's overall revenue, in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，Palantir 在获得政府合同方面做得非常好。B2G 合同通常很难赢得——考虑到广泛的资格标准、较长的周转时间和加剧的竞争——但 Palantir 似乎已经找到了在政府业务方面取得成功的秘诀。对于外行人来说，第一季度其政府合同收入同比增长76%，约占公司总收入的61%。</blockquote></p><p> Unless the company botches up somewhere, these government agencies are likely going to internally recommend it for varied applications. They won’t have to qualify Palantir time and again for several criteria which could drive these internal cross-agency referrals in a speedy manner and these agencies might even ramp up their spending in pre-existing contracts. So, Palantir just needs to rinse-and-repeat its B2G (Business-to-Government) strategy, and its government revenue could continue growing rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>除非该公司在某个地方出了问题，否则这些政府机构可能会在内部推荐它用于各种应用。他们不必一次又一次地通过 Palantir 的几项标准，这些标准可能会推动这些内部跨机构推荐，这些机构甚至可能会增加在现有合同上的支出。因此，Palantir 只需要清洗并重复其 B2G（企业对政府）战略，其政府收入就可以继续快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has also made steady progress with regards to its government business so far in Q2. Its Q2 is still ongoing, but at the time of this writing, the company has over $36 million worth of new current action obligations from government deals, agreements and contracts, most of which haven’t made the headlines. For the uninitiated, a new deal could be an addition to pre-existing deal, expand the scope of previously agreed upon deliverables, it could be entirely new in nature, have varied execution periods that span from months to years and/or also have a recurring revenue stream attached to it.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，Palantir 在第二季度的政府业务方面也取得了稳步进展。其第二季度仍在进行中，但在撰写本文时，该公司根据政府交易、协议和合同承担了价值超过 3600 万美元的新流动性行动义务，其中大部分尚未成为头条新闻。对于新手来说，新交易可能是对现有交易的补充，扩大了先前商定的交付成果的范围，它可能是全新的，具有从几个月到几年的不同执行期和/或还具有经常性收入流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091203d7b476076ff008ca0c3b0f6ad2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, while there are several variables that prevent us from reliably estimating the near-term revenue impact from these deals, Palantir’s shareholders with a long-term time horizon should feel reassured that their company continues to make steady progress towards growing its government business.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然有几个变量使我们无法可靠地估计这些交易对近期收入的影响，但 Palantir 的长期股东应该可以放心，他们的公司将继续在发展政府业务方面取得稳步进展。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s shares are currently trading at about 43-times its trailing twelve-month sales which is, undeniably, high by conventional standards.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 目前的股价约为过去 12 个月销售额的 43 倍，不可否认，按照传统标准来看，这是一个很高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40584e7d2ca5458e8609338887f80e2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, its rich valuations alone shouldn't be the basis of a bear thesis. Palantir's valuation multiples may be high, but note from the chart above thatits revenue growth rate in Q1 was also higher than most of its peers.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其丰富的估值本身不应成为看跌论点的基础。Palantir 的估值倍数可能很高，但从上图可以看出，第一季度的收入增长率也高于大多数同行。</blockquote></p><p> So, I believe the price premium is justified by the company’s rapid pace of revenue growth (illustrated in the chart above), its qualitative growth catalysts discussed in this article and its relatively secure government revenue stream.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我认为该公司收入增长速度快（如上图所示）、本文讨论的定性增长催化剂以及相对安全的政府收入来源都证明了价格溢价的合理性。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Keeping these factors in mind, investors with a multi-year time horizon may want to increase exposure to Palantir on potential price corrections. The stock is likely to reach new highs as its growth catalysts eventually materialize, and as the company approaches profitability, in the next 2 to 3 years. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这些因素，具有多年投资期限的投资者可能希望在潜在价格调整时增加对 Palantir 的投资。随着其增长催化剂最终实现以及公司接近盈利，该股可能会在未来 2 到 3 年内创下新高。祝你好运!</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: The Untold Truth<blockquote>Palantir：不为人知的真相</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: The Untold Truth<blockquote>Palantir：不为人知的真相</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base and its bleak margin profile.</li>  <li>But the company is actually doing well in terms of customer growth, margin expansion and government order wins.</li>  <li>Investors with a long-term time horizon may want to accumulate its shares on potential price corrections.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6abc7f93f4c7e615f66dca20523d1c16\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1077\"><span>C Flanigan/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 经常因其高估值倍数、停滞不前的客户群和惨淡的利润率而受到批评。</li><li>但该公司实际上在客户增长、利润率扩张和政府订单赢得方面表现良好。</li><li>具有长期期限的投资者可能希望在潜在的价格调整时积累股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>弗拉尼根/盖蒂图片娱乐公司</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir (PLTR) is lately being lambasted in various investing forums on speculative grounds such as how its growth momentum could fizzle out soon, how its margin profile is dragging the company down and that the stock doesn’t justify its price premium. But the company isn't as bad. On the contrary, the data analytics firm is performing well on several parameters – such as customer growth, government order wins and margin expansion – which should come as an encouraging sign for its long-side investors and dispel such speculative bearish narratives. Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir (PLTR) 最近在各种投资论坛上遭到抨击，理由是投机性的，如其增长势头可能很快就会消失，其利润率状况正在拖累公司，以及该股无法证明其溢价的合理性。但这家公司并没有那么糟糕。相反，这家数据分析公司在客户增长、政府订单中标和利润率扩张等多个参数上表现良好，这对其多头投资者来说应该是一个令人鼓舞的迹象，并消除此类投机性的看跌言论。让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Rapid Customer Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户快速增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears have been criticizing Palantir for its bespoke functionality ever since it went public. Its platforms involve customization for various workflows and customer needs, so bears feel the company faces difficulty in onboarding several customers at once and as a result, it’s bottlenecked and its growth momentum can fizzle out. While I respect contrasting opinions, fact of the matter here is that Palantir doesn’t seem to be struggling with customer adds.</p><p><blockquote>自 Palantir 上市以来，Bears 一直批评其定制功能。bears 的平台需要针对各种工作流程和客户需求进行定制，因此 bears 认为该公司很难同时招聘多家客户，因此出现瓶颈，增长势头可能会减弱。虽然我尊重不同的意见，但事实是，Palantir 似乎并没有在增加客户方面苦苦挣扎。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s customer count increased by over 7% on a sequential basis in Q1 2021. Our database at Business Quant reveals that this pace of growth is actually higher than that reported by some of the other renowned names in the software application and infrastructure industries. This immediately dispels the narrative that Palantir faces difficulty in scaling customer relationships due to its bespoke features, whenit's performing better than peers in this regard.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年第一季度，公司客户数量环比增长超过 7%。我们在Business Quant的数据库显示，这一增长率实际上高于软件应用和基础设施行业其他一些知名企业的报告。这立即消除了 Palantir 因其定制功能而在扩大客户关系方面面临困难的说法，而 Palantir 在这方面的表现优于同行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37577e60466b8a980efd8bee77b02711\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"516\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company’s elevated pace of customer additions shouldn’t come as a surprise to my readers. I’ve explained in my prior articles how the company is undertaking a slew of measures – such as adopting a customer-friendly&nbsp;payment model, ramping up its&nbsp;sales function&nbsp;and introducing&nbsp;free trials&nbsp;for major enterprises – to expand its customer base. These initiatives were announced only a few months ago, and will continue for the rest of FY21, so I expect Palantir to continue adding customers at a rapid rate in near future as well.</p><p><blockquote>该公司增加客户的速度加快应该不会让我的读者感到意外。我在之前的文章中解释了该公司如何采取一系列措施来扩大客户群，如采用客户友好的支付模式、加强销售功能以及为大型企业提供免费试用。这些举措仅在几个月前才宣布，并将持续到 2021 财年的剩余时间，因此我预计 Palantir 在不久的将来也将继续快速增加客户。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, there’s no denying that Palantir’s customer base isn’t as sizable as some of its peers, but that’s also where its growth opportunity lies. It suggests that Palantir is yet to penetrate its target market in a big way and that its lower base effect makes it easier for the company to continue expanding its customer base at elevated rates.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，不可否认的是，Palantir 的客户群不如一些同行庞大，但这也是其增长机会所在。这表明 Palantir 尚未大规模渗透其目标市场，其较低的基数效应使该公司更容易以较高的速度继续扩大其客户群。</blockquote></p><p> There are broadly four takeaways here, which, by the way, the bears seem to discount time and again. These are:</p><p><blockquote>这里大致有四点要点，顺便说一句，空头似乎一次又一次地打折。这些是：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir's target market isn't saturated yet and it can still find new customers with ease,</li>  <li>These new customers are bound to lift the company’s revenue higher in 2021 by a varied magnitude, depending on their contract value,</li>  <li>If these are recurring contracts, then that’s going to boost Palantir’s future revenue projections and guidance,</li>  <li>If these new customers eventually ramp up their spend, then that's also going to boost Palantir’s future cash flows.</li> </ul> Regarding the last bullet, it's worth noting that Palantir’s top 20 customers, in general, have significantly ramped up their spending on the company’s data analytics platforms in each of the last 10 years. This new batch of customers, and any future customer additions, could also go through this spending expansion phase in the subsequent years and gradually boost Palantir’s revenue along the way. So, we must give due importance to its rapid pace of customer adds and not take it lightly.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir 的目标市场尚未饱和，仍然可以轻松找到新客户，</li><li>这些新客户必将在 2021 年提高公司的收入，具体取决于他们的合同价值、</li><li>如果这些是经常性合同，那么这将提高 Palantir 未来的收入预测和指导、</li><li>如果这些新客户最终增加了支出，那么这也将促进 Palantir 未来的现金流。</li></ul>关于最后一颗子弹，值得注意的是，在过去 10 年中，Palantir 的前 20 名客户总体上都大幅增加了在公司数据分析平台上的支出。这批新客户以及未来增加的任何客户也可能在随后几年经历这一支出扩张阶段，并在此过程中逐步提高 Palantir 的收入。因此，我们必须对其快速增加的客户速度给予应有的重视，不能掉以轻心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4923a1dd5cc6af812c6dd7b8335f878\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"426\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Margin Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>余量扩展</b></blockquote></p><p> Another issue with assessing Palantir’s growth prospects is that the company isn’t profitable yet. While some feel the stock will remain subdued due to its weak margin profile, others feel it can collapse down to single digits. The frustration is understandable given the company posted a net loss of $0.07 per share in its most recent quarter.</p><p><blockquote>评估 Palantir 增长前景的另一个问题是，该公司尚未盈利。虽然一些人认为该股由于利润率疲软而将保持低迷，但其他人认为该股可能会跌至个位数。鉴于该公司最近一个季度每股净亏损 0.07 美元，这种沮丧是可以理解的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/facd3a7bf5326c841c6f0e79d392d160\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"125\"><span>(Source:Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But I wanted to see for myself if Palantir’s margin profile was actually as hopeless as many believe it to be. So, I compiled the margin profiles for about 90 software infrastructure stocks listed on US bourses. There's no denying that the company's net profit margin is in the red. But what's surprising here is that Palantir had actually posted one of the highest sequential net margin expansions in Q1, in its peer group. To the best of my knowledge, this aspect of Palantir’s business hasn’t been discussed on any investing forum.</p><p><blockquote>但我想亲眼看看 Palantir 的利润率是否真的像许多人认为的那样毫无希望。因此，我编制了在美国证券交易所上市的大约90只软件基础设施股票的保证金概况。不可否认，公司净利润率处于亏损状态。但令人惊讶的是，Palantir 实际上在第一季度实现了同行中最高的连续净利润扩张之一。据我所知，Palantir 业务的这一方面还没有在任何投资论坛上讨论过。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25614333f421bbcdaf90b43a6ed8e011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"552\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company may not have been profitable so far, but that doesn’t mean it will remain unprofitable in the future as well. If its recent pace of margin expansion continues in the next several quarters, the company could become profitable in the next 2 to 3 years without sacrificing on its growth momentum. So, let’s give credit where it’s due. The community of professional analysts also shares this line of thought and projects Palantir's margin profile to materially improve going forward.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，该公司可能还没有盈利，但这并不意味着它将来也不会盈利。如果其最近的利润率扩张步伐在未来几个季度继续下去，该公司可能会在未来 2 至 3 年内实现盈利，而不会牺牲其增长势头。因此，让我们在该表扬的地方给予表扬。专业分析师社区也认同这一想法，并预计 Palantir 的利润率将在未来大幅改善。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b0017c547d56295730e8f7f4124935d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"400\"><span>(Source:MarketScreener)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：MarketScreener）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Besides, with public shareholding involved now, its management is likely to be under constant pressure to deliver breakneck revenue growth rates, and/or achieve profitability in the near future, or risk being voted out of their positions. This pressure may not have been as intense prior to its direct listing, when fewer shareholders were involved. So, overall, I don’t think Palantir’s margin profile is hopeless as many believe it to be, and I expect the company to become profitable by 2024.</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着现在公众持股的参与，其管理层可能会面临持续的压力，以实现惊人的收入增长率和/或在不久的将来实现盈利，或者面临被投票罢免的风险。在直接上市之前，这种压力可能没有那么大，当时参与的股东较少。因此，总体而言，我不认为 Palantir 的利润率状况像许多人认为的那样毫无希望，我预计该公司将在 2024 年实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Government Contract Wins</b></p><p><blockquote><b>政府合同获胜</b></blockquote></p><p> Moving on, Palantir has been doing extremely well when it comes to securing government contracts. B2G contracts are generally tough to win – given the extensive qualification criteria, long turnaround times and heightened competition – but Palantir seems to have the figured out recipe for success on the government side of its business. For the uninitiated, its revenue from government contracts rose 76% year over year, accounted for about 61% of the company's overall revenue, in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，Palantir 在获得政府合同方面做得非常好。B2G 合同通常很难赢得——考虑到广泛的资格标准、较长的周转时间和加剧的竞争——但 Palantir 似乎已经找到了在政府业务方面取得成功的秘诀。对于外行人来说，第一季度其政府合同收入同比增长76%，约占公司总收入的61%。</blockquote></p><p> Unless the company botches up somewhere, these government agencies are likely going to internally recommend it for varied applications. They won’t have to qualify Palantir time and again for several criteria which could drive these internal cross-agency referrals in a speedy manner and these agencies might even ramp up their spending in pre-existing contracts. So, Palantir just needs to rinse-and-repeat its B2G (Business-to-Government) strategy, and its government revenue could continue growing rapidly.</p><p><blockquote>除非该公司在某个地方出了问题，否则这些政府机构可能会在内部推荐它用于各种应用。他们不必一次又一次地通过 Palantir 的几项标准，这些标准可能会推动这些内部跨机构推荐，这些机构甚至可能会增加在现有合同上的支出。因此，Palantir 只需要清洗并重复其 B2G（企业对政府）战略，其政府收入就可以继续快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has also made steady progress with regards to its government business so far in Q2. Its Q2 is still ongoing, but at the time of this writing, the company has over $36 million worth of new current action obligations from government deals, agreements and contracts, most of which haven’t made the headlines. For the uninitiated, a new deal could be an addition to pre-existing deal, expand the scope of previously agreed upon deliverables, it could be entirely new in nature, have varied execution periods that span from months to years and/or also have a recurring revenue stream attached to it.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，Palantir 在第二季度的政府业务方面也取得了稳步进展。其第二季度仍在进行中，但在撰写本文时，该公司根据政府交易、协议和合同承担了价值超过 3600 万美元的新流动性行动义务，其中大部分尚未成为头条新闻。对于新手来说，新交易可能是对现有交易的补充，扩大了先前商定的交付成果的范围，它可能是全新的，具有从几个月到几年的不同执行期和/或还具有经常性收入流。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/091203d7b476076ff008ca0c3b0f6ad2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"352\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, while there are several variables that prevent us from reliably estimating the near-term revenue impact from these deals, Palantir’s shareholders with a long-term time horizon should feel reassured that their company continues to make steady progress towards growing its government business.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然有几个变量使我们无法可靠地估计这些交易对近期收入的影响，但 Palantir 的长期股东应该可以放心，他们的公司将继续在发展政府业务方面取得稳步进展。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s shares are currently trading at about 43-times its trailing twelve-month sales which is, undeniably, high by conventional standards.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 目前的股价约为过去 12 个月销售额的 43 倍，不可否认，按照传统标准来看，这是一个很高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/40584e7d2ca5458e8609338887f80e2f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"><span>(Source: BusinessQuant.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：BusinessQuant.com）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, its rich valuations alone shouldn't be the basis of a bear thesis. Palantir's valuation multiples may be high, but note from the chart above thatits revenue growth rate in Q1 was also higher than most of its peers.</p><p><blockquote>然而，其丰富的估值本身不应成为看跌论点的基础。Palantir 的估值倍数可能很高，但从上图可以看出，第一季度的收入增长率也高于大多数同行。</blockquote></p><p> So, I believe the price premium is justified by the company’s rapid pace of revenue growth (illustrated in the chart above), its qualitative growth catalysts discussed in this article and its relatively secure government revenue stream.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我认为该公司收入增长速度快（如上图所示）、本文讨论的定性增长催化剂以及相对安全的政府收入来源都证明了价格溢价的合理性。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Keeping these factors in mind, investors with a multi-year time horizon may want to increase exposure to Palantir on potential price corrections. The stock is likely to reach new highs as its growth catalysts eventually materialize, and as the company approaches profitability, in the next 2 to 3 years. Good Luck!</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这些因素，具有多年投资期限的投资者可能希望在潜在价格调整时增加对 Palantir 的投资。随着其增长催化剂最终实现以及公司接近盈利，该股可能会在未来 2 到 3 年内创下新高。祝你好运!</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435125-palantir-the-untold-truth\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435125-palantir-the-untold-truth","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180977741","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir is often criticized for its lofty valuation multiples, stagnating customer base and its bleak margin profile.\nBut the company is actually doing well in terms of customer growth, margin expansion and government order wins.\nInvestors with a long-term time horizon may want to accumulate its shares on potential price corrections.\n\nC Flanigan/Getty Images Entertainment\nPalantir (PLTR) is lately being lambasted in various investing forums on speculative grounds such as how its growth momentum could fizzle out soon, how its margin profile is dragging the company down and that the stock doesn’t justify its price premium. But the company isn't as bad. On the contrary, the data analytics firm is performing well on several parameters – such as customer growth, government order wins and margin expansion – which should come as an encouraging sign for its long-side investors and dispel such speculative bearish narratives. Let's take a closer look.\nRapid Customer Growth\nBears have been criticizing Palantir for its bespoke functionality ever since it went public. Its platforms involve customization for various workflows and customer needs, so bears feel the company faces difficulty in onboarding several customers at once and as a result, it’s bottlenecked and its growth momentum can fizzle out. While I respect contrasting opinions, fact of the matter here is that Palantir doesn’t seem to be struggling with customer adds.\nThe company’s customer count increased by over 7% on a sequential basis in Q1 2021. Our database at Business Quant reveals that this pace of growth is actually higher than that reported by some of the other renowned names in the software application and infrastructure industries. This immediately dispels the narrative that Palantir faces difficulty in scaling customer relationships due to its bespoke features, whenit's performing better than peers in this regard.\n\nThe company’s elevated pace of customer additions shouldn’t come as a surprise to my readers. I’ve explained in my prior articles how the company is undertaking a slew of measures – such as adopting a customer-friendly payment model, ramping up its sales function and introducing free trials for major enterprises – to expand its customer base. These initiatives were announced only a few months ago, and will continue for the rest of FY21, so I expect Palantir to continue adding customers at a rapid rate in near future as well.\nHaving said that, there’s no denying that Palantir’s customer base isn’t as sizable as some of its peers, but that’s also where its growth opportunity lies. It suggests that Palantir is yet to penetrate its target market in a big way and that its lower base effect makes it easier for the company to continue expanding its customer base at elevated rates.\nThere are broadly four takeaways here, which, by the way, the bears seem to discount time and again. These are:\n\nPalantir's target market isn't saturated yet and it can still find new customers with ease,\nThese new customers are bound to lift the company’s revenue higher in 2021 by a varied magnitude, depending on their contract value,\nIf these are recurring contracts, then that’s going to boost Palantir’s future revenue projections and guidance,\nIf these new customers eventually ramp up their spend, then that's also going to boost Palantir’s future cash flows.\n\nRegarding the last bullet, it's worth noting that Palantir’s top 20 customers, in general, have significantly ramped up their spending on the company’s data analytics platforms in each of the last 10 years. This new batch of customers, and any future customer additions, could also go through this spending expansion phase in the subsequent years and gradually boost Palantir’s revenue along the way. So, we must give due importance to its rapid pace of customer adds and not take it lightly.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nMargin Expansion\nAnother issue with assessing Palantir’s growth prospects is that the company isn’t profitable yet. While some feel the stock will remain subdued due to its weak margin profile, others feel it can collapse down to single digits. The frustration is understandable given the company posted a net loss of $0.07 per share in its most recent quarter.\n(Source:Seeking Alpha)\nBut I wanted to see for myself if Palantir’s margin profile was actually as hopeless as many believe it to be. So, I compiled the margin profiles for about 90 software infrastructure stocks listed on US bourses. There's no denying that the company's net profit margin is in the red. But what's surprising here is that Palantir had actually posted one of the highest sequential net margin expansions in Q1, in its peer group. To the best of my knowledge, this aspect of Palantir’s business hasn’t been discussed on any investing forum.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nThe company may not have been profitable so far, but that doesn’t mean it will remain unprofitable in the future as well. If its recent pace of margin expansion continues in the next several quarters, the company could become profitable in the next 2 to 3 years without sacrificing on its growth momentum. So, let’s give credit where it’s due. The community of professional analysts also shares this line of thought and projects Palantir's margin profile to materially improve going forward.\n(Source:MarketScreener)\nBesides, with public shareholding involved now, its management is likely to be under constant pressure to deliver breakneck revenue growth rates, and/or achieve profitability in the near future, or risk being voted out of their positions. This pressure may not have been as intense prior to its direct listing, when fewer shareholders were involved. So, overall, I don’t think Palantir’s margin profile is hopeless as many believe it to be, and I expect the company to become profitable by 2024.\nGovernment Contract Wins\nMoving on, Palantir has been doing extremely well when it comes to securing government contracts. B2G contracts are generally tough to win – given the extensive qualification criteria, long turnaround times and heightened competition – but Palantir seems to have the figured out recipe for success on the government side of its business. For the uninitiated, its revenue from government contracts rose 76% year over year, accounted for about 61% of the company's overall revenue, in Q1.\nUnless the company botches up somewhere, these government agencies are likely going to internally recommend it for varied applications. They won’t have to qualify Palantir time and again for several criteria which could drive these internal cross-agency referrals in a speedy manner and these agencies might even ramp up their spending in pre-existing contracts. So, Palantir just needs to rinse-and-repeat its B2G (Business-to-Government) strategy, and its government revenue could continue growing rapidly.\nPalantir has also made steady progress with regards to its government business so far in Q2. Its Q2 is still ongoing, but at the time of this writing, the company has over $36 million worth of new current action obligations from government deals, agreements and contracts, most of which haven’t made the headlines. For the uninitiated, a new deal could be an addition to pre-existing deal, expand the scope of previously agreed upon deliverables, it could be entirely new in nature, have varied execution periods that span from months to years and/or also have a recurring revenue stream attached to it.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nSo, while there are several variables that prevent us from reliably estimating the near-term revenue impact from these deals, Palantir’s shareholders with a long-term time horizon should feel reassured that their company continues to make steady progress towards growing its government business.\nFinal Thoughts\nPalantir’s shares are currently trading at about 43-times its trailing twelve-month sales which is, undeniably, high by conventional standards.\n(Source: BusinessQuant.com)\nHowever, its rich valuations alone shouldn't be the basis of a bear thesis. Palantir's valuation multiples may be high, but note from the chart above thatits revenue growth rate in Q1 was also higher than most of its peers.\nSo, I believe the price premium is justified by the company’s rapid pace of revenue growth (illustrated in the chart above), its qualitative growth catalysts discussed in this article and its relatively secure government revenue stream.\nKeeping these factors in mind, investors with a multi-year time horizon may want to increase exposure to Palantir on potential price corrections. The stock is likely to reach new highs as its growth catalysts eventually materialize, and as the company approaches profitability, in the next 2 to 3 years. 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