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2021-07-31

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July jobs report could be what gives the market its next big jolt in the week ahead

2021-07-27

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Tesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars

2021-07-25

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2021-07-23

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Volatility Beckons After Warp-Speed Recovery

2021-07-16

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Cramer's Mad Money Recap: Why Stocks Are Going Down

2021-07-14

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S&P 500 and Nasdaq end down after hitting record highs

2021-07-10

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5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space

2021-07-09

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Why AMC Stock Continued to Drop Today

2021-07-09

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Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Levi Strauss, General Motors, Accolade and more

2021-07-01

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Micron sales beat expectations as chip supplies remain tight, prices high

2021-07-01

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S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain

2021-06-27

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GameStop Joined the Russell 1000. The Move Might Hurt the Stock.

2021-06-25

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2021-06-22

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Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next

2021-06-22

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2021-06-20

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Answering the great inflation question of our time

2021-06-20

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2021-06-18

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Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already

2021-06-18

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Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already

2021-06-18

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Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already

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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJuly jobs report could be what gives the market its next big jolt in the week ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-31 07:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/july-jobs-report-could-be-what-gives-the-market-its-next-big-jolt-in-the-week-ahead.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nMore than a quarter of S&P 500 companies report in the week ahead, but the July jobs report on Friday will be what matters most to markets.\nOne strategist said the jobs number could be a “...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/july-jobs-report-could-be-what-gives-the-market-its-next-big-jolt-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/july-jobs-report-could-be-what-gives-the-market-its-next-big-jolt-in-the-week-ahead.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1106964638","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nMore than a quarter of S&P 500 companies report in the week ahead, but the July jobs report on Friday will be what matters most to markets.\nOne strategist said the jobs number could be a “game changer” since a strong number could encourage the Federal Reserve to tighten policy, while a weak number could delay it from paring back bond purchases.\n\nFriday’s jobs report could be a catalyst that helps determine whether markets are volatile or will trade like it’s the quiet dog days of August.\nMore than a quarter of theS&P 500report earnings in the coming week. The calendar includes companies in sectors such as consumer staples, insurance, pharma, travel and media. FromBooking HoldingstoViacomCBS,WayfairandKellogg, investors will be watching to see what companies say about reopening activity, supply chain disruptions and rising costs.\n“I think as much as 85% of the companies which are reporting earnings mentioned inflation on their earnings calls,” Franklin Templeton Fixed Income chief investment officer Sonal Desai said. “Inflation may not be a problem to policymakers and financial markets, which seem not to be concerned at all. It does seem to bother the people who have to buy stuff or people who produce stuff.”\nThe jobs factor\nThe Federal Reserve has said the sharp jump in inflation is just temporary, and many investors appear to be taking it in stride for now. The market is intensely focused on the central bank's other mandate: the labor market. Fed Chairman Jerome Powellsaid Wednesdayhe would like to seestrong jobs reportsbefore winding down the central bank's $120 billion a month bond-buying program.\nThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release theJuly employment reporton the morning of Friday, Aug. 6. It's expected to show 788,000 nonfarm payrolls, down from 850,000 in June, according to Dow Jones. The unemployment rate is expected to dip to 5.7% from 5.9%. Average hourly wages are expected to rise 3.9% year over year.\nIronsides Macroeconomics director of research Barry Knapp said he expects the next two monthly jobs reports will be strong, and the Fed should then be ready to announce in September that it is ready to start the slow unwind of its bond purchasing program.\nThat is an important step since it would be the first real move away from the central bank’s easy policies that were put in place in the pandemic. It would also mean the Fed would be open to raising interest rates once the tapering is completed.\n\nGame changer for markets\n\"Friday could be a game changer,\" Knapp said of the employment report. Before that, he expects stocks to trade in a narrow range.\nIf the number of jobs added in July is much higher than expected, at more than 1 million, Knapp said the market could immediately sell off on the idea the Fed would be ready to pare back its bond purchases.\nIf the number is weaker than expected, the market could rally. \"We are in a dead period after earnings, with concerns about the pace of the reopening. It's still a bit of a question mark. The bias would be higher after a weak number. ... Bad is good. Good is bad,\" said Knapp.\nLike some other strategists, he expects tosee a stock market correction,possibly later this summer.\n“I’m in the camp where I think we’re going to have our first major correction.” Knapp said. “What we’re likely to get is at least 10% or more. ... It could really happen when they [Fed officials] make the announcement in September.”\nWilmington Trust chief economist Luke Tilley said he expects just 350,000 jobs, based on the high frequency data he watches.\n“We think the run rate is about 500,000 jobs. Last month seems a little bit overcooked,” he said.\nReflation trade\nTheS&P 500was down 0.4% in the past week, finishing at 4,395, while the Nasdaq lost even more , down 1.1% at 14,672.\nCyclical stocks were among the best performers. Materials jumped 2.8% in the week, and energy shares were up 1.6%. Financials gained 0.7%. But tech fell 0.7%.\nKnapp said it now makes sense to hold stocks that are in the reflation trade, such as energy, industrials or materials.\nThe surge in the delta variant of the coronavirus has become a worry among investors and has been a factor holding down interest rates. The 10-year yield, which moves opposite price, has held at low levels and was at 1.23% on Friday, amid concern that the delta variant of the coronavirus could slow growth.\nInvestors will be watching other important data in the coming week, including theInstitute for Supply Management’smanufacturing data Monday, andjobless claimsand trade data Thursday.\nThe China trade\nChina was also a dominant market story in the past week and could continue to be. Hong Kong’sHang SengIndexfell5% for the week. Chinese regulators continued theircrackdown on internet companies, publicly traded education companies and other industries.\nStrategists say Beijing is trying to reclaim its biggest companies as its own and turn them away from listings in foreign markets. Officials were particularly upset withDidi Globalwhichreportedly went public even after being warned not toby Beijing.\nChinese regulators reportedly spoke with international banksafter their actions sparked a wave of selling in internet stocks and the broader Chinese stock market. The regulators saidcompanies could continue to go publicin the U.S. if they met listing requirements.\n“We will continue to see regulators try to calm the waters. I would say this was a communications misstep,” said Franklin Templeton’s Desai. “You don’t have massive swings without having negative impact.” She added it sent ripples through emerging markets.\n“This is China trying to gain control, and they tried to do it in a very heavy way, and they were surprised at the backlash,” Desai said.\nTheKraneShares CSI China Internet ETFhas lost about half its value from its peak in February, and was down another 2.6% Friday.\nInternet retailerAlibabais one of the ETF’s top holdings. The company is expected to announce earnings on Tuesday.\nWeek ahead calendarMonday\nEarnings:Take-Two Interactive,Mosaic,Vornado Realty,Eastman Chemical, Simon Property,Transocean,Pioneer Natural Resources, Reynolds Consumer Products, ON Semiconductor, NXP Semiconductor, AXA, Loews\n9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI\n10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing\n10:00 a.m. Construction spending\n10:00 am. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren\n2:00 p.m. Senior loan officer survey\nTuesday\nEarnings:Alibaba,Amgen, Eli Lilly,Clorox, KKR,Under Armour, Eaton, Discovery, Pitney Bowes,Marriott,ConocoPhillips, Activision Blizzard,Avis Budget,Public Storage, Devon Energy, Jacobs Engineering, Bausch Health, Incyte, Philips 66,Ralph Lauren,Expeditors International,Nikola,Warner Music\n10:00 a.m. Factory orders\n11:00 a.m. New York Fed release on household debt and credit\nWednesday\nEarnings:Booking Holdings,CVS Health, GM, Etsy,MGM Resorts,Allstate,Uber,Fox Corp., Electronic Arts, Roku,Kraft Heinz,Toyota, Sony,AmerisourceBergen,Marathon Petroleum, BorgWarner, Entergy, Apollo Global Management, New York Times,Scotts Miracle-Gro, Tupperware,MetLife,IAC/Interactive\n8:15 a.m. ADP employment\n9:45 a.m. Services PMI\n10:00 a.m. ISM services\nThursday\nVehicle sales\nEarnings:Regeneron,ViacomCBS, Beyond Meat, DropBox,Expedia,Sprouts Farmers Market, TrueCar, Shake Shack,Square, TripAdvisor, Cushman and Wakefield,Kellogg,Cigna, Zillow, Lions Gate, Ambac, Virgin Galactic,Motorola Solutions,Zynga, Illumina, AIG, SeaWorld, Cardinal Health,Duke Energy, Thomson Reuters,Datadog,Eventbrite,NRG Energy,Choice Hotels,Parker-Hannifin,Wayfair,Zoetis\n8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims\n8:30 a.m. International trade\nFriday\nEarnings:Liberty Broadband, Liberty Media, AMC Networks,Draftkings, Fluor, Gannett,Canopy Growth,Nuance Communiciations,Goodyear Tire\n8:30 a.m. Employment report\n10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade\n3:00 p.m. Consumer credit","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809939355,"gmtCreate":1627343285177,"gmtModify":1631886472244,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Comment","listText":"&nbsp;Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809939355","repostId":"1153028059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153028059","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627340900,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153028059?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153028059","media":"Reuters","summary":" -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operati","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.</p>\n<p>Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.</p>\n<p>For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.</p>\n<p>Shares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.</p>\n<p>In a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.</p>\n<p>“The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.</p>\n<p>Still, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.</p>\n<p>Despite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.</p>\n<p>The carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.</p>\n<p>Analysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p>\n<p>Excluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.</p>\n<p>Tesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.</p>\n<p>Tesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.</p>\n<p>“Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.</p>\n<p>Carmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.</p>\n<p>Tesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.</p>\n<p>But the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.</p>\n<p>In an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 07:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-results/update-4-tesla-sales-surge-98-company-boosts-margins-on-its-less-costly-electric-cars-idUSL4N2P23I5><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-results/update-4-tesla-sales-surge-98-company-boosts-margins-on-its-less-costly-electric-cars-idUSL4N2P23I5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-results/update-4-tesla-sales-surge-98-company-boosts-margins-on-its-less-costly-electric-cars-idUSL4N2P23I5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153028059","content_text":"(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.\nTesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.\nFor the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.\nShares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.\nIn a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.\n“The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.\nStill, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.\nDespite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.\nThe carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.\nAnalysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nExcluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.\nTesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.\nTesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.\n“Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.\nCarmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.\nTesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.\nBut the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.\nIn an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177800781,"gmtCreate":1627191608543,"gmtModify":1631886472259,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177800781","repostId":"1115106146","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175215167,"gmtCreate":1627034119359,"gmtModify":1631886472272,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175215167","repostId":"1123663609","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123663609","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627033420,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123663609?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-23 17:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Volatility Beckons After Warp-Speed Recovery","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123663609","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The record-quick Covid recession and rebound raises the question of whether we’re really in a new ec","content":"<blockquote>\n The record-quick Covid recession and rebound raises the question of whether we’re really in a&nbsp;new economic cycle. The answer matters&nbsp;for financial markets.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Blink and You Missed It</b></p>\n<p>The most startling announcement this week concerned news that was more than a year old. In the U.S., the recession driven by the Covid-19 shutdown ended in April 2020. It only lasted two months. So said theNational Bureau of Economic Research,&nbsp;and it’s a reasonable judgment. It also means that this recession wasby far the shortest on record, as well as the deepest if judged by the increase in unemployment:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ea1b9d605f76d9f1433630d20baaa35\" tg-width=\"1639\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As the deepest recession on record, it makes sense to say that a new economic cycle started in May last year. As the shortest, it’s questionable whether we should regard it as anything more than a transitory (that word again) blip. According to the latest forecast from the Congressional Budget Office, the output gap (the distance between the economy’s actual and potential production) will be eliminated by the end of this year. This chart is from Jitesh Kumar of Societe Generale SA:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e104d6ca896ce5837a5c44a42b19ea11\" tg-width=\"526\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is such a dramatic recovery that it raises the issue of whether we should call it a new cycle. Here is&nbsp;the same chart&nbsp;after removing the V-shaped months when Covid took over:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0ad358a9067c13bb1b2a80befab06be\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Cognitive dissonance begins. How do policymakers handle&nbsp;this? And how should investors? To further complicate things, the U.S. is in a completely different place from the rest of the developed world. No other leading economy is on course to eliminate its output gap this year, and only Canada will manage to do it by the end of next year, according to IMF estimates graphed by Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank AG:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/525e3ce925853b8037f6d2da41a10363\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>That would imply that the U.S. should be tightening monetary policy much earlier than anyone else, and that the dollar should strengthen. That would help to douse U.S.&nbsp;inflation, but put pressure on emerging markets. As Kumar shows, the Fed’s interest rates, relative to current core inflation and taking account of asset purchases, are the easiest they have ever been. That is almost impossible to justify if the economy is really only in the interrupted final stage of an expansion that started more than a decade ago:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d235af9604ad7a6b17dd82cdd0c5f32\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The speed of the recovery matters to financial markets. If the economy is growing but more slowly (in other words, the second derivative has changed), that is usually the cue for stock markets to slow down. If we’re in the late stages of a long cycle, it need not be long until the first derivative shifts. Larry Hatheway of Jackson Hole Economics summed up the problem thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Simply put, the fundamentals have shifted. After six months of congruent first and second derivatives, divergence has arrived. An inflection point is upon us. Growth is high, but decelerating.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>When the first and second derivatives fall out sync, investors become less certain. Bulls and bears tussle. Market gyrations become more pronounced. Leadership shifts, and then shifts again.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In short, volatility and dispersion increase. That’s the calculus of first and second derivatives.&nbsp;We should probably get used to it.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Inflation and Transience</b></p>\n<p>Some more comments on the debate are in order. Our ongoingindicators&nbsp;should be useful on this. One point made by Albert Edwards, also of SocGen, is interesting. Although famously bearish, he suggests that there is reason not to be too worried about inflation. Core inflation, excluding food and fuel, normally proceeds in line with the median —&nbsp;the level of inflation for whichever component happens to be in the middle. That relationship has broken down, and the median continues to give comfort:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95525582d8208c1e4e6f428449531997\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>At the very least, this is a sign that something unusual is afoot. However, Edwards also cites more disquieting data for “cyclical” inflation that show, again, how behavior in this cycle is different from those that precede it. If we split “core” inflation into cyclical and non-cyclical elements, a normal recession leads to sharp falls in the cyclical measure. This recession has led to no decline at all.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44799ae941e301646fa6d9ab7873e611\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>If the economic cycle isn’t pushing inflation down, there is no need for monetary easing, which indeed could drive prices up.&nbsp;That is concerning.</p>\n<p>Then there is the issue of what time period people have in mind when they say that inflation will be “transitory.” The base effects caused by last year’s collapse and subsequent rally in commodity prices won’t correct until next year. This chart is from Stonex Group Inc.’s Vincent Deluard, and shows the year-on-year inflation in gasoline and&nbsp;broader commodities if prices just stay where they are:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b079f226c736be0c68f82c1edb61c4a\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Queer as Folk</b></p>\n<p>What are people going to do? Economics isn’t like the physical sciences. Its laws must be refracted through numerous individual human decisions. The pandemic, and the lightning-quick recession and recovery, may have changed psychology and thus economic responses, but we don’t know yet.</p>\n<p>One critical question concerns consumers. They are sitting on lots of cash. Are they going to spend it? If they do, that will be good for growth, but will tend to confirm the warnings of inflationistas. If they don’t, then the U.S. and Europe could find their economies growing ever more constipated, like Japan’s.</p>\n<p>George Saravelos of Deutsche Bank drew this chart from the latest University of Michigan survey of consumers. One question is whether they think it’s a good or a bad time to buy a large household item. Generally, if you think there’s inflation coming, you want to buy now. If you think we’re mired in deflation, you want to defer. And stunningly, even though headline inflation is the worst in three decades, fewer people want to buy now than at any time since the survey started, five decades ago. Even more than at the worst of the global financial crisis, U.S. consumers on this evidence appear to be braced for deflation.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16c89b29716d62397c6f88846381f2c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Such behavior can easily be a self-fulfilling prophecy. And the experience of past pandemics is that people are noticeably more conservative in spending habits for years afterwards. Maybe that will hold true.</p>\n<p>That leads to another critical question. Will workers push for higher wages? Again, the evidence of past pandemics is that they do —&nbsp;and after many years of stagnant wage growth across the West, there would be much justification for doing so. Two good measures of workers’ confidence suggest unequivocally that employees are behaving as though they hold all the cards, even though unemployment is staying disappointingly high. The National Federation of Independent Business’ index of employers finding jobs hard to fill hit an all-time high in May, and barely declined in June. Meanwhile the quit rate, the proportion of people voluntarily leaving their job without another to go to, reached the highest in its 20-year history. It dropped last month, though is still at a level never seen before this year. The measures suggest that workers really are going to push for higher wages —&nbsp;which would be good for social cohesion, and not for inflation:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/169b6a5f0d1db542095ac6d1757c70b0\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Will this happen? Again, it will depend on millions of personal decisions. Butsome fascinating research from the Becker Friedman Institute for Economicsat the University of Chicago suggests that working from home is going to last, and is giving people a stronger incentive to play tough. In a wide survey, they found 6% of workers would quit instantly if their employers said they had to be back in the office five days per week next month:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d7b16fe305edea552ad9fecea51de2f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Employees are still hoping to work from home 2.35 days per week once the pandemic is over. This is coming down, but is still far in excess of employers’ plans to permit 1.2 days per week.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2490bf3fe71ddef3e56f5eb51c919d12\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The latest initial jobless claims numbers, produced weekly and very noisy, showed a surprising increase in the number of people signing on. It’s a strange labor market, to say the least; the pandemic, and working from home, may yet prove to have changed preferences profoundly.</p>\n<p>Delta Blues</p>\n<p>The delta variant should worry all of us. But how much should it affect the economy or financial markets? Probably not that&nbsp;much, though a lot depends on how optimistic your assumptions were.</p>\n<p>It’s clear that the variant is very infectious. In the U.K., the developed country where delta first made landfall, this wave has caused as many infections as the one that preceded it. The critical difference is that it has claimed far fewer lives. This chart, from the great newsletter produced by Whitney Tilson of Empire Financial Research, shows that vaccinations have severed the link between&nbsp;infections and deaths:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b524e3b050f0d3d708a041fa06f320b\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>However, this doesn’t mean that delta has been costless. U.K. deaths are increasing fast, looked at on a log scale.&nbsp;With an unvaccinated population to feed on, there is every reason to assume that delta would have been more lethal than earlier waves:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cfc8142fccf32f5d4ee85ff155a14c7\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Thankfully, the U.K. is widely vaccinated, while most of continental Europe has similar levels.&nbsp;Thus, even as delta leads to rising infections, the return to something like normality continues. As this chart from Mitsubishi UFJ Finance Group Inc. shows, restrictions have been largely lifted across Europe and even,&nbsp;controversially, in the U.K.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/186a94c7a46216292acfebc72d1545fa\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>More importantly, actual mobility is also back to something close to normal (although it has declined in the U.K.):</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/939eb8d6d09a4d271ac3a04caf089c60\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Delta, on this basis, should lead investors to trim their forecasts at the margin. It doesn’t appear capable of driving a fresh downturn on its own. The same isn’t true of many emerging markets.</p>\n<p>For investors, the imponderable is what to do about the U.S., where vaccination has become a political issue. This chart from Tilson shows how vaccination rates vary with states’ political allegiance:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaabd4633149dbc7b3c0095366009f5\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Bilal Hafeez of Macro Hive offers a similar graphic, this time with vaccination rates on one axis and test positivity rates on the other. Vaccinations mean fewer infections, and in the current American political reality this means fewer infections in blue states, and more in red states:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac20fa6a2ecd99373dfd265d3b29be70\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>There are plenty of American states, then, which have a big enough unvaccinated population for delta to have a serious medical impact. The following chart, from Oliver Brennan of TS Lombard of London, maps vaccination rates against current increases in infections:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/724a04b7bfe66731ea002244e701087c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Arkansas gives cause for great human concern. But to be cold-blooded about this, most of the states at the right of the chart are relatively small. And what matters for economic growth isn’t the death toll or hospitalizations but the impact on economic behavior. Brennan suggests that red states, where risk is greatest, won’t do anything to impede activity. Thus the economic impact should be more limited. Meanwhile, the biggest blue states tend to be highly vaccinated and already&nbsp;economically open. This is activity data for California, Texas and New York:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16bf28a8708693abf0771f7b639d75c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Brennan’s assessment is as follows:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The economic impact will take place when (a) a large share of the US economy is affected by rising cases and (b) policymakers’ response is to tighten restrictions and lockdowns. And, for US states, the latter has become a lightning rod of the culture war. The key point here is that (a) it is mostly red states currently suffering resurgent waves and (b) it is unlikely that a red state will enter another lockdown. So, while it is right to worry about Florida and other states where cases are exploding, for our investment process we should focus on California, Texas and New York – three states that, combined, make up one-third of US economic activity. Since Texas is a red state, we do not expect it to reimpose any type of restrictions; California and New York both have more than 50% of their adult population fully vaccinated which means the delta wave should not be critical.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>This doesn’t mean we don’t need to worry. If delta gets a foothold in a lightly vaccinated state, as it has in the U.K., economic activity will decline without formal lockdowns. Even Texans would be more careful. So far, the U.K. resurgence has had only a muted effect. If that pattern is repeated in the U.S., then delta could affect the second derivative (slowing growth). It’s hard to see it leading to an outright decline, so the risk of another lightning-quick recession is minimal.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Volatility Beckons After Warp-Speed Recovery</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVolatility Beckons After Warp-Speed Recovery\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-23 17:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-07-23/market-volatility-beckons-after-warp-speed-covid-recovery?srnd=opinion><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The record-quick Covid recession and rebound raises the question of whether we’re really in a new economic cycle. The answer matters for financial markets.\n\nBlink and You Missed It\nThe most startling ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-07-23/market-volatility-beckons-after-warp-speed-covid-recovery?srnd=opinion\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-07-23/market-volatility-beckons-after-warp-speed-covid-recovery?srnd=opinion","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123663609","content_text":"The record-quick Covid recession and rebound raises the question of whether we’re really in a new economic cycle. The answer matters for financial markets.\n\nBlink and You Missed It\nThe most startling announcement this week concerned news that was more than a year old. In the U.S., the recession driven by the Covid-19 shutdown ended in April 2020. It only lasted two months. So said theNational Bureau of Economic Research, and it’s a reasonable judgment. It also means that this recession wasby far the shortest on record, as well as the deepest if judged by the increase in unemployment:\nAs the deepest recession on record, it makes sense to say that a new economic cycle started in May last year. As the shortest, it’s questionable whether we should regard it as anything more than a transitory (that word again) blip. According to the latest forecast from the Congressional Budget Office, the output gap (the distance between the economy’s actual and potential production) will be eliminated by the end of this year. This chart is from Jitesh Kumar of Societe Generale SA:\nThis is such a dramatic recovery that it raises the issue of whether we should call it a new cycle. Here is the same chart after removing the V-shaped months when Covid took over:\nCognitive dissonance begins. How do policymakers handle this? And how should investors? To further complicate things, the U.S. is in a completely different place from the rest of the developed world. No other leading economy is on course to eliminate its output gap this year, and only Canada will manage to do it by the end of next year, according to IMF estimates graphed by Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank AG:\n\nThat would imply that the U.S. should be tightening monetary policy much earlier than anyone else, and that the dollar should strengthen. That would help to douse U.S. inflation, but put pressure on emerging markets. As Kumar shows, the Fed’s interest rates, relative to current core inflation and taking account of asset purchases, are the easiest they have ever been. That is almost impossible to justify if the economy is really only in the interrupted final stage of an expansion that started more than a decade ago:\n\nThe speed of the recovery matters to financial markets. If the economy is growing but more slowly (in other words, the second derivative has changed), that is usually the cue for stock markets to slow down. If we’re in the late stages of a long cycle, it need not be long until the first derivative shifts. Larry Hatheway of Jackson Hole Economics summed up the problem thusly:\n\nSimply put, the fundamentals have shifted. After six months of congruent first and second derivatives, divergence has arrived. An inflection point is upon us. Growth is high, but decelerating.\n\n\nWhen the first and second derivatives fall out sync, investors become less certain. Bulls and bears tussle. Market gyrations become more pronounced. Leadership shifts, and then shifts again.\n\n\nIn short, volatility and dispersion increase. That’s the calculus of first and second derivatives. We should probably get used to it.\n\nInflation and Transience\nSome more comments on the debate are in order. Our ongoingindicators should be useful on this. One point made by Albert Edwards, also of SocGen, is interesting. Although famously bearish, he suggests that there is reason not to be too worried about inflation. Core inflation, excluding food and fuel, normally proceeds in line with the median — the level of inflation for whichever component happens to be in the middle. That relationship has broken down, and the median continues to give comfort:\n\nAt the very least, this is a sign that something unusual is afoot. However, Edwards also cites more disquieting data for “cyclical” inflation that show, again, how behavior in this cycle is different from those that precede it. If we split “core” inflation into cyclical and non-cyclical elements, a normal recession leads to sharp falls in the cyclical measure. This recession has led to no decline at all.\n\nIf the economic cycle isn’t pushing inflation down, there is no need for monetary easing, which indeed could drive prices up. That is concerning.\nThen there is the issue of what time period people have in mind when they say that inflation will be “transitory.” The base effects caused by last year’s collapse and subsequent rally in commodity prices won’t correct until next year. This chart is from Stonex Group Inc.’s Vincent Deluard, and shows the year-on-year inflation in gasoline and broader commodities if prices just stay where they are:\nQueer as Folk\nWhat are people going to do? Economics isn’t like the physical sciences. Its laws must be refracted through numerous individual human decisions. The pandemic, and the lightning-quick recession and recovery, may have changed psychology and thus economic responses, but we don’t know yet.\nOne critical question concerns consumers. They are sitting on lots of cash. Are they going to spend it? If they do, that will be good for growth, but will tend to confirm the warnings of inflationistas. If they don’t, then the U.S. and Europe could find their economies growing ever more constipated, like Japan’s.\nGeorge Saravelos of Deutsche Bank drew this chart from the latest University of Michigan survey of consumers. One question is whether they think it’s a good or a bad time to buy a large household item. Generally, if you think there’s inflation coming, you want to buy now. If you think we’re mired in deflation, you want to defer. And stunningly, even though headline inflation is the worst in three decades, fewer people want to buy now than at any time since the survey started, five decades ago. Even more than at the worst of the global financial crisis, U.S. consumers on this evidence appear to be braced for deflation.\n\nSuch behavior can easily be a self-fulfilling prophecy. And the experience of past pandemics is that people are noticeably more conservative in spending habits for years afterwards. Maybe that will hold true.\nThat leads to another critical question. Will workers push for higher wages? Again, the evidence of past pandemics is that they do — and after many years of stagnant wage growth across the West, there would be much justification for doing so. Two good measures of workers’ confidence suggest unequivocally that employees are behaving as though they hold all the cards, even though unemployment is staying disappointingly high. The National Federation of Independent Business’ index of employers finding jobs hard to fill hit an all-time high in May, and barely declined in June. Meanwhile the quit rate, the proportion of people voluntarily leaving their job without another to go to, reached the highest in its 20-year history. It dropped last month, though is still at a level never seen before this year. The measures suggest that workers really are going to push for higher wages — which would be good for social cohesion, and not for inflation:\n\nWill this happen? Again, it will depend on millions of personal decisions. Butsome fascinating research from the Becker Friedman Institute for Economicsat the University of Chicago suggests that working from home is going to last, and is giving people a stronger incentive to play tough. In a wide survey, they found 6% of workers would quit instantly if their employers said they had to be back in the office five days per week next month:\n\nEmployees are still hoping to work from home 2.35 days per week once the pandemic is over. This is coming down, but is still far in excess of employers’ plans to permit 1.2 days per week.\n\nThe latest initial jobless claims numbers, produced weekly and very noisy, showed a surprising increase in the number of people signing on. It’s a strange labor market, to say the least; the pandemic, and working from home, may yet prove to have changed preferences profoundly.\nDelta Blues\nThe delta variant should worry all of us. But how much should it affect the economy or financial markets? Probably not that much, though a lot depends on how optimistic your assumptions were.\nIt’s clear that the variant is very infectious. In the U.K., the developed country where delta first made landfall, this wave has caused as many infections as the one that preceded it. The critical difference is that it has claimed far fewer lives. This chart, from the great newsletter produced by Whitney Tilson of Empire Financial Research, shows that vaccinations have severed the link between infections and deaths:\n\nHowever, this doesn’t mean that delta has been costless. U.K. deaths are increasing fast, looked at on a log scale. With an unvaccinated population to feed on, there is every reason to assume that delta would have been more lethal than earlier waves:\n\nThankfully, the U.K. is widely vaccinated, while most of continental Europe has similar levels. Thus, even as delta leads to rising infections, the return to something like normality continues. As this chart from Mitsubishi UFJ Finance Group Inc. shows, restrictions have been largely lifted across Europe and even, controversially, in the U.K.\n\nMore importantly, actual mobility is also back to something close to normal (although it has declined in the U.K.):\n\nDelta, on this basis, should lead investors to trim their forecasts at the margin. It doesn’t appear capable of driving a fresh downturn on its own. The same isn’t true of many emerging markets.\nFor investors, the imponderable is what to do about the U.S., where vaccination has become a political issue. This chart from Tilson shows how vaccination rates vary with states’ political allegiance:\n\nBilal Hafeez of Macro Hive offers a similar graphic, this time with vaccination rates on one axis and test positivity rates on the other. Vaccinations mean fewer infections, and in the current American political reality this means fewer infections in blue states, and more in red states:\n\nThere are plenty of American states, then, which have a big enough unvaccinated population for delta to have a serious medical impact. The following chart, from Oliver Brennan of TS Lombard of London, maps vaccination rates against current increases in infections:\n\nArkansas gives cause for great human concern. But to be cold-blooded about this, most of the states at the right of the chart are relatively small. And what matters for economic growth isn’t the death toll or hospitalizations but the impact on economic behavior. Brennan suggests that red states, where risk is greatest, won’t do anything to impede activity. Thus the economic impact should be more limited. Meanwhile, the biggest blue states tend to be highly vaccinated and already economically open. This is activity data for California, Texas and New York:\n\nBrennan’s assessment is as follows:\n\nThe economic impact will take place when (a) a large share of the US economy is affected by rising cases and (b) policymakers’ response is to tighten restrictions and lockdowns. And, for US states, the latter has become a lightning rod of the culture war. The key point here is that (a) it is mostly red states currently suffering resurgent waves and (b) it is unlikely that a red state will enter another lockdown. So, while it is right to worry about Florida and other states where cases are exploding, for our investment process we should focus on California, Texas and New York – three states that, combined, make up one-third of US economic activity. Since Texas is a red state, we do not expect it to reimpose any type of restrictions; California and New York both have more than 50% of their adult population fully vaccinated which means the delta wave should not be critical.\n\nThis doesn’t mean we don’t need to worry. If delta gets a foothold in a lightly vaccinated state, as it has in the U.K., economic activity will decline without formal lockdowns. Even Texans would be more careful. So far, the U.K. resurgence has had only a muted effect. If that pattern is repeated in the U.S., then delta could affect the second derivative (slowing growth). It’s hard to see it leading to an outright decline, so the risk of another lightning-quick recession is minimal.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170076201,"gmtCreate":1626397714703,"gmtModify":1631886472282,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170076201","repostId":"1143835393","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143835393","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626396523,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1143835393?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 08:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cramer's Mad Money Recap: Why Stocks Are Going Down","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143835393","media":"The Street","summary":"Jim Cramer says it's not so much about the economy as it is the simple rules of supply and demand. T","content":"<blockquote>\n Jim Cramer says it's not so much about the economy as it is the simple rules of supply and demand. There's not enough cash to buy everything.\n</blockquote>\n<p>There are a lot of theories on why stocks are going down, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Thursday, but there's only one theory that's correct. As he noted on last night's show, too often investors can't see the forest for the trees instead focusing on the economy rather than the fundamentals of supply and demand.</p>\n<p>For example, many investors are taking their cue from the bond markets, which are far bigger than stocks. They have all sorts of theories as to why bond yields are plunging.</p>\n<p>Is it because our rates are better than the rest of the world? Is it because Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell is right and inflation is only transitory? Or is it because we're about to see a slowdown in our economy?</p>\n<p>Cramer said while he does believe that Powell is correct and inflation is transitory, none of these reasons really explain the action in bonds or in the stock market. What does explain the action, however, is supply and demand.</p>\n<p>For months now, the markets have been flooded with new offerings in the form of IPOs and SPACs, and the market has increasingly struggled to absorb them all. Eventually, as it always does, supply outstrips demand and prices plunge, just as they are now. There's simply not enough cash to buy everything.</p>\n<p>So while everyone has their theories, the truth is that employment is strong and inflation is waning. But when it comes to IPOs, the cycle has simply run its course.</p>\n<p><b>Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo</b></p>\n<p>In a special interview, Cramer welcomed back Gina Raimondo, U.S. Secretary of Commerce, for an update on the White House's economic plans to keep the economy moving forward. President Biden's latest plans include a $600 billion infrastructure package to rebuild roads, bridges and the nation's power grid, and a $3.5 trillion budget proposal that includes universal pre-kindergarten and two-year community college, among other priorities.</p>\n<p>Raimondo said there are still millions of women out of the workforce because they're struggling with childcare and elder care. That's why the latest proposals include investments in caregiving as well as universal kindergarten to give all of our children a head start on their education.</p>\n<p>Additionally, Raimondo said we need to invest more in digital literacy and digital skills for our modern world. That includes getting more girls and minorities involved in data science so they can compete on a global stage.</p>\n<p>When asked about supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic, Raimondo called out Friday's scheduled meeting at the White House, which will include the home building and construction industries, that aims to address shortages in lumber and other building supplies. If we can produce more, prices will decline, Raimondo said, and that's the goal.</p>\n<p><b>Bull in the Second-Hand Shop</b></p>\n<p>There's a new long-term bull market brewing in the secondhand marketplace, Cramer told viewers, and it's time to compare the players and pick a winner. The contenders include Poshmark&nbsp;(<b>POSH</b>) -Get Report, ThredUp&nbsp;(<b>TDUP</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and RealReal&nbsp;(<b>REAL</b>) -Get Report, along with Etsy&nbsp;(<b>ETSY</b>) -Get Report, which just purchased Depop for $1.6 billion, and the king of secondhand goods, eBay&nbsp;(<b>EBAY</b>) -Get Report.</p>\n<p>For comparison, eBay is clearly the largest, with 187 million buyers around the globe. EBay is followed by Poshmark at seven million, Etsy with four million, ThredUp at 1.3 million and RealReal with just 700,000.</p>\n<p>Cramer said with 42% revenue growth, his favorite in the space is PoshMark, which appeared recently on the show. He said both eBay and Etsy remain fabulous companies as well, but Poshmark has the growth. ThredUp simply isn't that exciting at just 15% growth, he said, and RealReal is still recovering from its authenticity issues surrounding counterfeit items on its platform.</p>\n<p><b>Executive Decision:&nbsp;Corsair Gaming</b></p>\n<p>In his \"Executive Decision\" segment, Cramer spoke with Andy Paul, co-founder and CEO of Corsair Gaming&nbsp;(<b>CRSR</b>) -Get Report, makers of high-end gaming peripherals.</p>\n<p>Paul noted that while the number of gamers has increased between 3% to 4% every year over the past few years, gaming hardware has grown by 24%, on average, and gamers continually upgrade their equipment to the latest technologies.</p>\n<p>Paul added that if you think about gaming as a hobby or a sport, no one buys just one set of golf clubs or one set of skis. The same applies to gaming, where people start with the basics and upgrade over time.</p>\n<p>Corsair is also very active in the streaming space, making lighting and other gear gamers need to broadcast their games live to the world. Paul noted his company's first foray into gaming cameras, which provides all of the features of a DSLR in a simple webcam package.</p>\n<p><b>Lightning Round</b></p>\n<p>Here's what Jim Cramer had to say about some of the stocks that callers offered up during the \"Mad Money Lightning Round\" Thursday evening:</p>\n<p>Rio Tinto&nbsp;(<b>RIO</b>) -Get Report: \"I think Rio Tinto is a good company and I want you to hold onto it.\"</p>\n<p>QuantumScape&nbsp;(<b>QS</b>) -Get Report: \"There are other companies that claim they have better batteries and I'm starting to believe them.\"</p>\n<p>VMware&nbsp;(<b>VMW</b>) -Get Report: \"I'd rather own Dell&nbsp;(<b>DELL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;than VMWare.\"</p>\n<p>Veru(<b>VERU</b>) -Get Report: \"They need to get into Stage III trials before we can get excited about them.\"</p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cramer's Mad Money Recap: Why Stocks Are Going Down</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCramer's Mad Money Recap: Why Stocks Are Going Down\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-16 08:48 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/cramers-mad-money-recap-july-15-2021><strong>The Street</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Jim Cramer says it's not so much about the economy as it is the simple rules of supply and demand. There's not enough cash to buy everything.\n\nThere are a lot of theories on why stocks are going down,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/cramers-mad-money-recap-july-15-2021\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/cramers-mad-money-recap-july-15-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143835393","content_text":"Jim Cramer says it's not so much about the economy as it is the simple rules of supply and demand. There's not enough cash to buy everything.\n\nThere are a lot of theories on why stocks are going down, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Thursday, but there's only one theory that's correct. As he noted on last night's show, too often investors can't see the forest for the trees instead focusing on the economy rather than the fundamentals of supply and demand.\nFor example, many investors are taking their cue from the bond markets, which are far bigger than stocks. They have all sorts of theories as to why bond yields are plunging.\nIs it because our rates are better than the rest of the world? Is it because Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell is right and inflation is only transitory? Or is it because we're about to see a slowdown in our economy?\nCramer said while he does believe that Powell is correct and inflation is transitory, none of these reasons really explain the action in bonds or in the stock market. What does explain the action, however, is supply and demand.\nFor months now, the markets have been flooded with new offerings in the form of IPOs and SPACs, and the market has increasingly struggled to absorb them all. Eventually, as it always does, supply outstrips demand and prices plunge, just as they are now. There's simply not enough cash to buy everything.\nSo while everyone has their theories, the truth is that employment is strong and inflation is waning. But when it comes to IPOs, the cycle has simply run its course.\nSecretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo\nIn a special interview, Cramer welcomed back Gina Raimondo, U.S. Secretary of Commerce, for an update on the White House's economic plans to keep the economy moving forward. President Biden's latest plans include a $600 billion infrastructure package to rebuild roads, bridges and the nation's power grid, and a $3.5 trillion budget proposal that includes universal pre-kindergarten and two-year community college, among other priorities.\nRaimondo said there are still millions of women out of the workforce because they're struggling with childcare and elder care. That's why the latest proposals include investments in caregiving as well as universal kindergarten to give all of our children a head start on their education.\nAdditionally, Raimondo said we need to invest more in digital literacy and digital skills for our modern world. That includes getting more girls and minorities involved in data science so they can compete on a global stage.\nWhen asked about supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic, Raimondo called out Friday's scheduled meeting at the White House, which will include the home building and construction industries, that aims to address shortages in lumber and other building supplies. If we can produce more, prices will decline, Raimondo said, and that's the goal.\nBull in the Second-Hand Shop\nThere's a new long-term bull market brewing in the secondhand marketplace, Cramer told viewers, and it's time to compare the players and pick a winner. The contenders include Poshmark (POSH) -Get Report, ThredUp (TDUP) -Get Report and RealReal (REAL) -Get Report, along with Etsy (ETSY) -Get Report, which just purchased Depop for $1.6 billion, and the king of secondhand goods, eBay (EBAY) -Get Report.\nFor comparison, eBay is clearly the largest, with 187 million buyers around the globe. EBay is followed by Poshmark at seven million, Etsy with four million, ThredUp at 1.3 million and RealReal with just 700,000.\nCramer said with 42% revenue growth, his favorite in the space is PoshMark, which appeared recently on the show. He said both eBay and Etsy remain fabulous companies as well, but Poshmark has the growth. ThredUp simply isn't that exciting at just 15% growth, he said, and RealReal is still recovering from its authenticity issues surrounding counterfeit items on its platform.\nExecutive Decision: Corsair Gaming\nIn his \"Executive Decision\" segment, Cramer spoke with Andy Paul, co-founder and CEO of Corsair Gaming (CRSR) -Get Report, makers of high-end gaming peripherals.\nPaul noted that while the number of gamers has increased between 3% to 4% every year over the past few years, gaming hardware has grown by 24%, on average, and gamers continually upgrade their equipment to the latest technologies.\nPaul added that if you think about gaming as a hobby or a sport, no one buys just one set of golf clubs or one set of skis. The same applies to gaming, where people start with the basics and upgrade over time.\nCorsair is also very active in the streaming space, making lighting and other gear gamers need to broadcast their games live to the world. Paul noted his company's first foray into gaming cameras, which provides all of the features of a DSLR in a simple webcam package.\nLightning Round\nHere's what Jim Cramer had to say about some of the stocks that callers offered up during the \"Mad Money Lightning Round\" Thursday evening:\nRio Tinto (RIO) -Get Report: \"I think Rio Tinto is a good company and I want you to hold onto it.\"\nQuantumScape (QS) -Get Report: \"There are other companies that claim they have better batteries and I'm starting to believe them.\"\nVMware (VMW) -Get Report: \"I'd rather own Dell (DELL) -Get Report than VMWare.\"\nVeru(VERU) -Get Report: \"They need to get into Stage III trials before we can get excited about them.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145867113,"gmtCreate":1626218170132,"gmtModify":1631886472293,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment&nbsp;","listText":"Comment&nbsp;","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145867113","repostId":"2151560584","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151560584","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1626207238,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151560584?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 04:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 and Nasdaq end down after hitting record highs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151560584","media":"Reuters","summary":"JPMorgan drops amid low interest rates\nU.S. consumer prices surge in June\nBoeing slips on new produc","content":"<ul>\n <li>JPMorgan drops amid low interest rates</li>\n <li>U.S. consumer prices surge in June</li>\n <li>Boeing slips on new production problems for 787 Dreamliners</li>\n <li>Indexes: Dow -0.31%, S&amp;P 500 -0.35%, Nasdaq -0.38%</li>\n</ul>\n<p>(Updates following end of session)</p>\n<p>July 13 (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower on Tuesday after hitting record highs earlier in the session, with investors digesting a jump in consumer prices in June and earnings from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs that kicked off the quarterly reporting season.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq reached fresh record highs but quickly fell into negative territory after an auction of 30-year Treasuries showed less demand than some investors expected and pushed yields higher.</p>\n<p>Data indicated U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in 13 years last month, while so-called core consumer prices surged 4.5% year over year, the largest rise since November 1991.</p>\n<p>Economists viewed the price surge, driven by travel-rated services and used automobiles, as mostly temporary, aligning with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's long-standing views.</p>\n<p>\"Any time you get an uptick in interest rates the stock market is going to get nervous, especially on a day like today,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 growth index dipped 0.05%, while the value index fell 0.70%.</p>\n<p>\"With growth outperforming value, the takeaway is clearly that inflation from a market perspective is not a real threat in the long term,\" said Keith Buchanan, a portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments in Atlanta, Georgia.</p>\n<p>Ten of the 11 major S&amp;P 500 sector indexes ended lower, with real estate , consumer discretionary and financials each down more than 1%.</p>\n<p>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co stock fell 1.5% after the company reported blockbuster quarterly profit growth but warned that the sunny outlook would not make for blockbuster revenues in the short term due to low interest rates.</p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs Group Inc dipped 1.2% after its quarterly earnings exceeded forecasts.</p>\n<p>Citigroup , Wells Fargo &amp; Co and Bank of America were due to report their quarterly results early on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>PepsiCo Inc gained 2.3% after raising its full-year earnings forecast, betting on accelerating demand as COVID-19 restrictions continue to ease.</p>\n<p>June-quarter earnings per share for S&amp;P 500 companies are expected to rise 66%, according to Refinitiv data, with investors questioning how long Wall Street's rally would last after a 16% rise in the benchmark index so far this year.</p>\n<p>All eyes now turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday for his comments about rising price pressures and monetary support going forward.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.31% to end at 34,888.79 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.35% to 4,369.21.</p>\n<p>The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.38% to 14,677.65.</p>\n<p>Conagra Brands Inc dropped 5.4% after the packaged foods company warned that higher raw material and ingredient costs would take a bigger bite out of its profit this year than previously estimated.</p>\n<p>Boeing Co fell 4.2% after the Federal Aviation Administration said late on Monday some undelivered 787 Dreamliners have a new manufacturing quality issue.</p>\n<p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.06-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 39 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 61 new highs and 73 new lows.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.5 billion shares, compared with the 10.5 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>(Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 and Nasdaq end down after hitting record highs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 and Nasdaq end down after hitting record highs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-14 04:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul>\n <li>JPMorgan drops amid low interest rates</li>\n <li>U.S. consumer prices surge in June</li>\n <li>Boeing slips on new production problems for 787 Dreamliners</li>\n <li>Indexes: Dow -0.31%, S&amp;P 500 -0.35%, Nasdaq -0.38%</li>\n</ul>\n<p>(Updates following end of session)</p>\n<p>July 13 (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower on Tuesday after hitting record highs earlier in the session, with investors digesting a jump in consumer prices in June and earnings from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs that kicked off the quarterly reporting season.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq reached fresh record highs but quickly fell into negative territory after an auction of 30-year Treasuries showed less demand than some investors expected and pushed yields higher.</p>\n<p>Data indicated U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in 13 years last month, while so-called core consumer prices surged 4.5% year over year, the largest rise since November 1991.</p>\n<p>Economists viewed the price surge, driven by travel-rated services and used automobiles, as mostly temporary, aligning with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's long-standing views.</p>\n<p>\"Any time you get an uptick in interest rates the stock market is going to get nervous, especially on a day like today,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 growth index dipped 0.05%, while the value index fell 0.70%.</p>\n<p>\"With growth outperforming value, the takeaway is clearly that inflation from a market perspective is not a real threat in the long term,\" said Keith Buchanan, a portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments in Atlanta, Georgia.</p>\n<p>Ten of the 11 major S&amp;P 500 sector indexes ended lower, with real estate , consumer discretionary and financials each down more than 1%.</p>\n<p>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co stock fell 1.5% after the company reported blockbuster quarterly profit growth but warned that the sunny outlook would not make for blockbuster revenues in the short term due to low interest rates.</p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs Group Inc dipped 1.2% after its quarterly earnings exceeded forecasts.</p>\n<p>Citigroup , Wells Fargo &amp; Co and Bank of America were due to report their quarterly results early on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>PepsiCo Inc gained 2.3% after raising its full-year earnings forecast, betting on accelerating demand as COVID-19 restrictions continue to ease.</p>\n<p>June-quarter earnings per share for S&amp;P 500 companies are expected to rise 66%, according to Refinitiv data, with investors questioning how long Wall Street's rally would last after a 16% rise in the benchmark index so far this year.</p>\n<p>All eyes now turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday for his comments about rising price pressures and monetary support going forward.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.31% to end at 34,888.79 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.35% to 4,369.21.</p>\n<p>The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.38% to 14,677.65.</p>\n<p>Conagra Brands Inc dropped 5.4% after the packaged foods company warned that higher raw material and ingredient costs would take a bigger bite out of its profit this year than previously estimated.</p>\n<p>Boeing Co fell 4.2% after the Federal Aviation Administration said late on Monday some undelivered 787 Dreamliners have a new manufacturing quality issue.</p>\n<p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.06-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 39 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 61 new highs and 73 new lows.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.5 billion shares, compared with the 10.5 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>(Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","NDAQ":"纳斯达克OMX交易所","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151560584","content_text":"JPMorgan drops amid low interest rates\nU.S. consumer prices surge in June\nBoeing slips on new production problems for 787 Dreamliners\nIndexes: Dow -0.31%, S&P 500 -0.35%, Nasdaq -0.38%\n\n(Updates following end of session)\nJuly 13 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower on Tuesday after hitting record highs earlier in the session, with investors digesting a jump in consumer prices in June and earnings from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs that kicked off the quarterly reporting season.\nThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached fresh record highs but quickly fell into negative territory after an auction of 30-year Treasuries showed less demand than some investors expected and pushed yields higher.\nData indicated U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in 13 years last month, while so-called core consumer prices surged 4.5% year over year, the largest rise since November 1991.\nEconomists viewed the price surge, driven by travel-rated services and used automobiles, as mostly temporary, aligning with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's long-standing views.\n\"Any time you get an uptick in interest rates the stock market is going to get nervous, especially on a day like today,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey.\nThe S&P 500 growth index dipped 0.05%, while the value index fell 0.70%.\n\"With growth outperforming value, the takeaway is clearly that inflation from a market perspective is not a real threat in the long term,\" said Keith Buchanan, a portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments in Atlanta, Georgia.\nTen of the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes ended lower, with real estate , consumer discretionary and financials each down more than 1%.\nJPMorgan Chase & Co stock fell 1.5% after the company reported blockbuster quarterly profit growth but warned that the sunny outlook would not make for blockbuster revenues in the short term due to low interest rates.\nGoldman Sachs Group Inc dipped 1.2% after its quarterly earnings exceeded forecasts.\nCitigroup , Wells Fargo & Co and Bank of America were due to report their quarterly results early on Wednesday.\nPepsiCo Inc gained 2.3% after raising its full-year earnings forecast, betting on accelerating demand as COVID-19 restrictions continue to ease.\nJune-quarter earnings per share for S&P 500 companies are expected to rise 66%, according to Refinitiv data, with investors questioning how long Wall Street's rally would last after a 16% rise in the benchmark index so far this year.\nAll eyes now turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday for his comments about rising price pressures and monetary support going forward.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.31% to end at 34,888.79 points, while the S&P 500 lost 0.35% to 4,369.21.\nThe Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.38% to 14,677.65.\nConagra Brands Inc dropped 5.4% after the packaged foods company warned that higher raw material and ingredient costs would take a bigger bite out of its profit this year than previously estimated.\nBoeing Co fell 4.2% after the Federal Aviation Administration said late on Monday some undelivered 787 Dreamliners have a new manufacturing quality issue.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.06-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 39 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 61 new highs and 73 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 9.5 billion shares, compared with the 10.5 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.\n(Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"NDAQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148964098,"gmtCreate":1625918290214,"gmtModify":1631886472306,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148964098","repostId":"1159307278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159307278","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625873648,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159307278?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 07:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159307278","media":"Barrons","summary":"Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling s","content":"<p>Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the&nbsp;fledgling space tourism industry.</p>\n<p>So long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.</p>\n<p>Here’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.</p>\n<p><b>When Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?</b></p>\n<p>The Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the&nbsp;company’s website&nbsp;and on&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;below.</p>\n<p><b>How High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?</b></p>\n<p>Galactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.</p>\n<p>Blue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.</p>\n<p><b>How Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?</b></p>\n<p>Nothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.</p>\n<p>Still, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes&nbsp;it’s possible&nbsp;that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.</p>\n<p>A move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for&nbsp;$28 million.</p>\n<p>A ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run&nbsp;about $250,000.</p>\n<p><b>What Does the Flight Mean for Investors?</b></p>\n<p>The continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.</p>\n<p>Once fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.</p>\n<p>The flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.</p>\n<p><b>How Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?</b></p>\n<p>A successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4113576958bcf043e56e1c92578d0cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>The stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.</p>\n<p>Investors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.</p>\n<p>Analysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stocks is about 55%.</p>\n<p>Shares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-10 07:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling space tourism industry.\nSo long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159307278","content_text":"Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling space tourism industry.\nSo long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.\nHere’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.\nWhen Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?\nThe Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the company’s website and on Barron’s below.\nHow High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?\nGalactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.\nBlue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.\nHow Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?\nNothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.\nStill, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes it’s possible that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.\nA move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for $28 million.\nA ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run about $250,000.\nWhat Does the Flight Mean for Investors?\nThe continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.\nOnce fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.\nAnalysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.\nThe flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.\nHow Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?\nA successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.\n\nThe stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.\nInvestors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.\nAnalysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for S&P 500 stocks is about 55%.\nShares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143278744,"gmtCreate":1625798421688,"gmtModify":1631886472316,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143278744","repostId":"2149328127","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2149328127","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625797306,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2149328127?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 10:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why AMC Stock Continued to Drop Today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149328127","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Retail traders seem to be less and less enamored with AMC.","content":"<h2>What happened</h2>\n<p>Movie theater operator <b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b> (NYSE:AMC) seems to be losing its luster with the retail trader crowd that now makes up 80% of the company's shareholder base. AMC stock is down 30% in the past two weeks, and dropped as much as 14% Thursday morning. AMC shares have recovered some, but remained down 6.2% as of 10:05 a.m. EDT.</p>\n<h2>So what</h2>\n<p>Some of the negative sentiment came earlier this week when AMC CEO Adam Aron said he was tabling a shareholder vote on a proposal he supported to add another $25 million shares to the company's share count. Aron wanted to sell more stock to raise additional capital even after the company has raised almost $3 billion in new equity and debt over approximately the last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b2920e6f52019423eb48e9d9b895e32\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<p>Shareholders wanting a turnaround in the business may also be reacting to news that more movies will be released onto streaming television with shorter durations playing solely in theaters. Beginning in 2022 <b>Comcast</b>'s (NASDAQ:CMCSA) Universal Pictures will be moving its releases onto its parent company's Peacock streaming service no later than four months after theater releases, according to Reuters.</p>\n<h2>Now what</h2>\n<p>Investors looking past the meme stock frenzy that has encompassed AMC shares may be realizing that the business itself still needs to recover. And news that potential hit movies will be available in homes to stream sooner could be damaging to the theater business.</p>\n<p>Even with the stock's recent decline, AMC shares are up more than 1,900% year to date. It will take much success in the underlying business to catch up to the current valuation. Some traders appear to be noticing and are taking profits.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why AMC Stock Continued to Drop Today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy AMC Stock Continued to Drop Today\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-09 10:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/08/why-amc-stock-continued-to-drop-today/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What happened\nMovie theater operator AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC) seems to be losing its luster with the retail trader crowd that now makes up 80% of the company's shareholder base. AMC stock...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/08/why-amc-stock-continued-to-drop-today/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/08/why-amc-stock-continued-to-drop-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149328127","content_text":"What happened\nMovie theater operator AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC) seems to be losing its luster with the retail trader crowd that now makes up 80% of the company's shareholder base. AMC stock is down 30% in the past two weeks, and dropped as much as 14% Thursday morning. AMC shares have recovered some, but remained down 6.2% as of 10:05 a.m. EDT.\nSo what\nSome of the negative sentiment came earlier this week when AMC CEO Adam Aron said he was tabling a shareholder vote on a proposal he supported to add another $25 million shares to the company's share count. Aron wanted to sell more stock to raise additional capital even after the company has raised almost $3 billion in new equity and debt over approximately the last year.Image source: Getty Images.\nShareholders wanting a turnaround in the business may also be reacting to news that more movies will be released onto streaming television with shorter durations playing solely in theaters. Beginning in 2022 Comcast's (NASDAQ:CMCSA) Universal Pictures will be moving its releases onto its parent company's Peacock streaming service no later than four months after theater releases, according to Reuters.\nNow what\nInvestors looking past the meme stock frenzy that has encompassed AMC shares may be realizing that the business itself still needs to recover. And news that potential hit movies will be available in homes to stream sooner could be damaging to the theater business.\nEven with the stock's recent decline, AMC shares are up more than 1,900% year to date. It will take much success in the underlying business to catch up to the current valuation. Some traders appear to be noticing and are taking profits.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143278912,"gmtCreate":1625798389936,"gmtModify":1631886472326,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143278912","repostId":"1195657546","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195657546","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625785913,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195657546?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 07:11","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Levi Strauss, General Motors, Accolade and more","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195657546","media":"CNBC","summary":"Check out the companies making headlines after the bell Thursday:\nLevi Strauss— Shares of Levi Strau","content":"<div>\n<p>Check out the companies making headlines after the bell Thursday:\nLevi Strauss— Shares of Levi Strauss added 3.2% after the retailer crushed Wall Street expectations in itsfiscal second-quarter ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-after-hours-levi-strauss-gm-accolade.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Levi Strauss, General Motors, Accolade and more</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks making the biggest moves after hours: Levi Strauss, General Motors, Accolade and more\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-09 07:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-after-hours-levi-strauss-gm-accolade.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Check out the companies making headlines after the bell Thursday:\nLevi Strauss— Shares of Levi Strauss added 3.2% after the retailer crushed Wall Street expectations in itsfiscal second-quarter ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-after-hours-levi-strauss-gm-accolade.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BGC":"BGC GROUP","GM":"通用汽车","ACCD":"Accolade, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-after-hours-levi-strauss-gm-accolade.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1195657546","content_text":"Check out the companies making headlines after the bell Thursday:\nLevi Strauss— Shares of Levi Strauss added 3.2% after the retailer crushed Wall Street expectations in itsfiscal second-quarter results. Levi reported adjusted earnings of 23 cents per share on revenue of $1.28 billion. Analysts expected earnings of 9 cents per share on revenue of $1.21 billion, according to Refinitiv.\nGeneral Motors— General Motors shares gained 1.3% after Wedbush initiated coverage of the stock with an outperform rating and $85 price target. That target implies an upside of more than 51% from Thursday's close. \"CEO Mary Barra along with other key executives has led the legacy auto company back to the top of the auto industry in the United States,\" Wedbush's Dan Ives said in a note.\nPriceSmart— Shares of PriceSmart rose 2.4% in thin trading on the back of the warehouse club operator’s third-quarter earnings report. PriceSmart posted earnings of 73 cents per share, compared with a FactSet estimate of 65 cents per share expectation.\nAccolade— Accolade shares added 1.2% in low-volume trading following after the company released its latest quarterly numbers. The health-care technology company reported revenue of of $59.5 million versus analysts’ $55.8 million estimate, according to FactSet. Accolade also posted a smaller-than-expected EBITDA loss.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ACCD":0.9,"BGC":0.9,"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151568332,"gmtCreate":1625098835126,"gmtModify":1631886472340,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151568332","repostId":"1126325248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126325248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625097519,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126325248?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 07:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron sales beat expectations as chip supplies remain tight, prices high","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126325248","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) -Micron Technology Inc on Wednesday beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and fo","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Micron Technology Inc on Wednesday beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and forecast fourth-quarter revenue above expectations, as tight supplies of memory chips and continued strong demand kept prices high.</p>\n<p>The chipmaker forecast current-quarter revenue of $8.2 billion, plus or minus $200 million, while analysts on average were expecting $7.87 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p>\n<p>Micron makes NAND memory chips that serve the data storage market and DRAM memory chips that are used in data centers, smartphones and other computing devices. It has benefited from the pandemic-induced global shift toward remote work as demand for laptops and other electronic devices soared.</p>\n<p>In prepared remarks, Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said the company expects industry-wide supplies of both kinds of chips to remain tight until the end of next year, keeping prices high.</p>\n<p>“We believe Micron’s strong financial performance will continue cross-cycle, and over the long term, our revenue growth will outperform the broader semiconductor industry,” Mehrotra said.</p>\n<p>The company’s revenue for the third quarter ended June 3 rose 36% to $7.42 billion, beating estimates of $7.24 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p>\n<p>Excluding items, the company earned $1.88 per share in the quarter, above estimates of $1.72.</p>\n<p>The company also said it will sell a plant in Lehi, Utah, to Texas Instruments Inc. Micron said it expects to get about $1.5 billion for the plant, $900 million of which will be in cash and $600 million of which will be in the value of tools it can either sell to outsiders or move to its other factories. Micron had said it would sell the Utah facility, which it shared with Intel Corp, under a joint venture formed nearly a decade ago, as part of a broader technology strategy shifthere.</p>\n<p>The company took an impairment charge of $435 million because the $900 million in cash was below the book value of the factory, but Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana told Reuters in an interview that the factory was on track to generate almost $500 million in losses this year because it was underutilized.</p>\n<p>Micron also said that its capital expenditures for fiscal 2021 would rise above $9.5 billion, partly driven by pre-payments as it starts to acquire extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines from Dutch maker ASML Holding NV. The machines are necessary for making the most cutting-edge chips but can cost more than $100 million each.</p>\n<p>The company stretched out its use of cheaper chipmaker techniques as long as it could but will start using the EUV machines in production in 2024, officials said.</p>\n<p>“EUV is a very big and important tool in the manufacturing line. And EUV itself is a tool that has a long lead time for manufacturing from ASML. The orders have to be placed just about now,” Sadana said.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron sales beat expectations as chip supplies remain tight, prices high</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron sales beat expectations as chip supplies remain tight, prices high\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-01 07:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/article/micron-tech-results/update-3-micron-sales-beat-expectations-as-chip-supplies-remain-tight-prices-high-idUSL3N2OC4I1><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Reuters) -Micron Technology Inc on Wednesday beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and forecast fourth-quarter revenue above expectations, as tight supplies of memory chips and continued ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/micron-tech-results/update-3-micron-sales-beat-expectations-as-chip-supplies-remain-tight-prices-high-idUSL3N2OC4I1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/micron-tech-results/update-3-micron-sales-beat-expectations-as-chip-supplies-remain-tight-prices-high-idUSL3N2OC4I1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126325248","content_text":"(Reuters) -Micron Technology Inc on Wednesday beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and forecast fourth-quarter revenue above expectations, as tight supplies of memory chips and continued strong demand kept prices high.\nThe chipmaker forecast current-quarter revenue of $8.2 billion, plus or minus $200 million, while analysts on average were expecting $7.87 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nMicron makes NAND memory chips that serve the data storage market and DRAM memory chips that are used in data centers, smartphones and other computing devices. It has benefited from the pandemic-induced global shift toward remote work as demand for laptops and other electronic devices soared.\nIn prepared remarks, Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said the company expects industry-wide supplies of both kinds of chips to remain tight until the end of next year, keeping prices high.\n“We believe Micron’s strong financial performance will continue cross-cycle, and over the long term, our revenue growth will outperform the broader semiconductor industry,” Mehrotra said.\nThe company’s revenue for the third quarter ended June 3 rose 36% to $7.42 billion, beating estimates of $7.24 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nExcluding items, the company earned $1.88 per share in the quarter, above estimates of $1.72.\nThe company also said it will sell a plant in Lehi, Utah, to Texas Instruments Inc. Micron said it expects to get about $1.5 billion for the plant, $900 million of which will be in cash and $600 million of which will be in the value of tools it can either sell to outsiders or move to its other factories. Micron had said it would sell the Utah facility, which it shared with Intel Corp, under a joint venture formed nearly a decade ago, as part of a broader technology strategy shifthere.\nThe company took an impairment charge of $435 million because the $900 million in cash was below the book value of the factory, but Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana told Reuters in an interview that the factory was on track to generate almost $500 million in losses this year because it was underutilized.\nMicron also said that its capital expenditures for fiscal 2021 would rise above $9.5 billion, partly driven by pre-payments as it starts to acquire extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines from Dutch maker ASML Holding NV. The machines are necessary for making the most cutting-edge chips but can cost more than $100 million each.\nThe company stretched out its use of cheaper chipmaker techniques as long as it could but will start using the EUV machines in production in 2024, officials said.\n“EUV is a very big and important tool in the manufacturing line. And EUV itself is a tool that has a long lead time for manufacturing from ASML. The orders have to be placed just about now,” Sadana said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151587260,"gmtCreate":1625098695950,"gmtModify":1631891311040,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151587260","repostId":"1178516480","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178516480","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625094708,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178516480?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 07:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178516480","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as inves","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.</p>\n<p>In the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.</p>\n<p>All three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&amp;P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&amp;P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.</p>\n<p>“It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&amp;P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”</p>\n<p>For the month, the bellwether S&amp;P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.</p>\n<p>This month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.</p>\n<p>“Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”</p>\n<p>“(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.</p>\n<p>“Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”</p>\n<p>(Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b82b4dfdc765d913811f9d8572e60f6\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”</p>\n<p>The private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&amp;P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.</p>\n<p>Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.</p>\n<p>Boeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.</p>\n<p>Walmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.</p>\n<p>Micron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.</p>\n<p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-01 07:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178516480","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.\nIn the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.\nAll three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.\n“It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”\nFor the month, the bellwether S&P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.\nThis month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.\n“Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”\n“(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.\n“Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”\n(Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )\n“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”\nThe private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.\nAmong the 11 major sectors in the S&P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.\nBoeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.\nWalmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.\nMicron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124299522,"gmtCreate":1624765490866,"gmtModify":1631891311046,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124299522","repostId":"1172710941","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172710941","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624753126,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172710941?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop Joined the Russell 1000. The Move Might Hurt the Stock.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172710941","media":"Barrons","summary":"The Reddit army has succeeded in launching GameStop to a new stratosphere—but it could actually hurt the stock in the short-term.The videogame retailer officially made it into the Russell 1000 index,FTSE Russell announced on Saturday. The Russell 1000 tracks large-capitalization stocks—and in order to be included in the latest index reconstitution, stocks had to have market caps of at least $7.3 billion on May 7.As one of the stocks favored by retail traders this year, GameStop  met that thresho","content":"<p>The Reddit army has succeeded in launching&nbsp;GameStop&nbsp;to a new stratosphere—but it could actually hurt the stock in the short-term.</p>\n<p>The videogame retailer officially made it into the&nbsp;Russell 1000 index,FTSE Russell announced on Saturday. The Russell 1000 tracks large-capitalization stocks—and in order to be included in the latest index reconstitution, stocks had to have market caps of at least $7.3 billion on May 7.</p>\n<p>As one of the&nbsp;stocks favored by retail traders this year, GameStop (ticker: GME) met that threshold because it had an $11.2 billion market cap by the deadline, while&nbsp;AMC Entertainment(AMC) didn’t. That said, AMC has rocketed higher since May 7, multiplying by more than five times and surpassing GameStop’s market value—hitting a recent $27 billion compared to GameStop’s $15 billion.</p>\n<p>It may seem counterintuitive, but the Russell 1000 “promotion” may actually be bad for GameStop’s stock,as&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;explained earlier this month.Funds that track the small-capRussell 2000will have to sell GameStop shares on June 28, and funds that track the Russell 1000 will have to buy them. Three times as much money is invested in funds that track the Russell 1000, but GameStop’s overall weight in that index will be much lower than it has been in the Russell 2000. In the Russell 2000, GameStop made up about half a percentage point of the index, while it will be less than 0.1% of the Russell 1000. GameStop will look tiny next to behemoths like&nbsp;Apple(AAPL).</p>\n<p>Experts like Jefferies strategist Steven DeSanctis expect that there will be net selling in GameStop of about 5 million shares, or about half of the stock’s recent average daily volume, after the rebalancing.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, AMC will be the largest member of the Russell 2000 by far—more than three times as large as its nearest competitor as of last week. See the full post-rebalancing list of Russell 1000 stocks&nbsp;<a href=\"https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/ru1000_membershiplist_20210628.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>&nbsp;and Russell 2000 stocks&nbsp;<a href=\"https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/ru2000_membershiplist_20210628.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop Joined the Russell 1000. The Move Might Hurt the Stock.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop Joined the Russell 1000. The Move Might Hurt the Stock.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-27 08:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-stock-russell-1000-51624729113?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Reddit army has succeeded in launching GameStop to a new stratosphere—but it could actually hurt the stock in the short-term.\nThe videogame retailer officially made it into the Russell 1000 index,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-stock-russell-1000-51624729113?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-stock-russell-1000-51624729113?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172710941","content_text":"The Reddit army has succeeded in launching GameStop to a new stratosphere—but it could actually hurt the stock in the short-term.\nThe videogame retailer officially made it into the Russell 1000 index,FTSE Russell announced on Saturday. The Russell 1000 tracks large-capitalization stocks—and in order to be included in the latest index reconstitution, stocks had to have market caps of at least $7.3 billion on May 7.\nAs one of the stocks favored by retail traders this year, GameStop (ticker: GME) met that threshold because it had an $11.2 billion market cap by the deadline, while AMC Entertainment(AMC) didn’t. That said, AMC has rocketed higher since May 7, multiplying by more than five times and surpassing GameStop’s market value—hitting a recent $27 billion compared to GameStop’s $15 billion.\nIt may seem counterintuitive, but the Russell 1000 “promotion” may actually be bad for GameStop’s stock,as Barron’s explained earlier this month.Funds that track the small-capRussell 2000will have to sell GameStop shares on June 28, and funds that track the Russell 1000 will have to buy them. Three times as much money is invested in funds that track the Russell 1000, but GameStop’s overall weight in that index will be much lower than it has been in the Russell 2000. In the Russell 2000, GameStop made up about half a percentage point of the index, while it will be less than 0.1% of the Russell 1000. GameStop will look tiny next to behemoths like Apple(AAPL).\nExperts like Jefferies strategist Steven DeSanctis expect that there will be net selling in GameStop of about 5 million shares, or about half of the stock’s recent average daily volume, after the rebalancing.\nMeanwhile, AMC will be the largest member of the Russell 2000 by far—more than three times as large as its nearest competitor as of last week. See the full post-rebalancing list of Russell 1000 stocks here and Russell 2000 stocks here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126617333,"gmtCreate":1624559516122,"gmtModify":1631891311047,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126617333","repostId":"1198422658","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129871096,"gmtCreate":1624369848515,"gmtModify":1631891311050,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129871096","repostId":"1177499959","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177499959","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624344919,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177499959?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 14:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177499959","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" spa","content":"<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"Tapering<i><b>is</b></i>Tightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.</p>\n<p>Elaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-&nbsp; writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"<b>fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"</b></p>\n<p>Or to paraphrase Lester Burnham,<b>\"it's all downhill from here\"...</b>and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"<b><i>the transition is incomplete.\"</i></b></p>\n<p>Highlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:<b>\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.</b>\"</p>\n<p>Furthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95f296e4d1300cd3c95485a2333d270\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Nevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.</p>\n<p>While real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"<b>this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670f9e23e34953726583276c32a7b3f9\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"445\"></p>\n<p>That said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.<b>This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.</b>Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.</p>\n<p>Wilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantially<b>before</b>Bernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"<i>perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n</blockquote>\n<p>The underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.</p>\n<p>Wrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,<b>monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - is</b><b><u>money supply growth</u></b><b>:</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,</i>\n <i><b>the primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Realizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"&nbsp; He explains:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>When money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And visually:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392b34be32740b00458d59adb2bb80a6\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"486\"></p>\n<p>But wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).</p>\n<p>Taking Wilson's argument a step further,<b>M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economy</b><b><i>and</i></b><b>markets.</b>On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of February<b>but has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a&nbsp; more \"normal\" level of annual growth</b>— i.e., 7-8%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5f46571e7e27f9c00fed0a2d310a3c\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>More ominously, this also suggests<b>liquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.</b></p>\n<p>Finally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77fa806a6775bc562b18346590d26c9\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>Wilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.</p>\n<p>This to Wilson<b>\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"</b>and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).</p>\n<p>Putting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is that<b>the market already knows it.</b>The bad news is that<b>a majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.</b>This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"</p>\n<p>And while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.</p>\n<p>We expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 14:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177499959","content_text":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.\nFast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"TaperingisTightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.\nElaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-  writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"\nOr to paraphrase Lester Burnham,\"it's all downhill from here\"...and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"the transition is incomplete.\"\nHighlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.\"\nFurthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...\n... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"\n\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n\nNevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.\nWhile real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"\n\nThat said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.\nWilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantiallybeforeBernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"\n\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n\nThe underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.\nWrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - ismoney supply growth:\n\nIn a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,\nthe primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.\n\nRealizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"  He explains:\n\nWhen money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).\n\nAnd visually:\n\nBut wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).\nTaking Wilson's argument a step further,M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economyandmarkets.On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of Februarybut has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a  more \"normal\" level of annual growth— i.e., 7-8%\n\nMore ominously, this also suggestsliquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.\nFinally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.\n\nWilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.\nThis to Wilson\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).\nPutting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is thatthe market already knows it.The bad news is thata majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"\nAnd while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.\nWe expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129847198,"gmtCreate":1624369789614,"gmtModify":1631891311052,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129847198","repostId":"1187133273","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165490554,"gmtCreate":1624154231078,"gmtModify":1631891311056,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165490554","repostId":"1133385197","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133385197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624151969,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133385197?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-20 09:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Answering the great inflation question of our time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133385197","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up","content":"<p>Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these days—is conjecture. And that’s vexing, not just for the dismal scientists (aka economists), but for all of us, because whether or not prices are really rising, by how much and for how long, has massive implications in our lives. Or as Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, says: “Inflation is one of the mysteries of economic study and thought. A difficult thing to gauge and forecast and get right. That’s why the risks are high.”</p>\n<p>The current debate over inflation really revolves around two questions: First, is this current spate of inflation, just that, a spate—or to use Wall Street’s buzzword of the moment, “transitory,”—or not? (Just to give you an idea of how buzzy, when I Google the word “transitory” the search engine suggests “inflation” after it.) And second, transitory (aka temporary) inflation or not, what does it suggest for the economy and markets?</p>\n<p>Before I get into that, let me lay out what’s going on with prices right now. First, know that inflation,which peaked in 1980 at an annualized rate of 13.55%,has been tame for quite some time, specifically 4% or less for nearly 30 years. Which means that anyone 40 years old or younger has no experience with inflation other than maybe from an Econ 101 textbook. Obviously that could be a problem.</p>\n<p>As an aside I remember President Ford in 1974 trying to jawbone inflation down with his \"Whip Inflation Now\" campaign, which featured“Win” buttons,earringsand evenugly sweaters.None of this worked and it took draconian measures by Fed Chair Paul Volcker (raising rates and targeting money supply,as described by Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, William Poole)to eventually tame inflation and keep it under wraps for all those years.</p>\n<p>Until now perhaps. Last week theLabor Department reported that consumer prices (the CPI, or consumer price index) rose 5% in May,the fastest annual rate in nearly 13 years—which was when the economy was overheating from the housing boom which subsequently went bust and sent the economy off a cliff and into the Great Recession. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 3.8%, the biggest increase since May 1992. (For the record, the likelihood of the economy tanking right now is de minimis.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87f75dfcb98fb5a0e7c3f9d3f8d336e2\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Used car and truck prices are a major driver of inflation, climbing 7.3% last month and 29.7% over the past year. New car prices are up too, which have pushed upshares of Ford and GM a remarkable 40% plus this year.Clearly Americans want to buy vehicles to go on vacation and get back to work. And Yahoo Finance’sJanna Herron reportsthat rents are rising at their fastest pace in 15 years.</p>\n<p>To be sure, not all prices are climbing.As Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman points out,prices are not up much at all for health care, education and are basically flat for technology, including computers, smartphones and internet service (an important point which we’ll get back to.)</p>\n<p>But that’s the counterpoint really. Americans are obsessed with cars, housing is critical and many of us are experiencing sticker shock booking travel this summer. Higher prices are front and center. Wall Street too is in a tizzy about inflation, and concerns about it and more importantly Federal Reserve policy in response to inflation (see below), sent stocks lower with the S&amp;P 500 down 1.91% this week, its worst week since February.</p>\n<p>Given this backdrop, the tension (such as it is) was high when the Fed met this week to deliver its forecast and for Chair Jay Powell to answer questions from the media. Or at least so said hedge fund honcho Paul Tudor Jones,who characterized the proceedings on CNBCas “the most important meeting in [Chairman] Jay Powell’s career, certainly the most important Fed meeting of the past four or five years.” Jones was critical of the Fed, which he believes is now stimulating the economy unnecessarily by keeping interest rates low and by buying financial assets. Unnecessarily, Jones says, because the economy is already running hot and needs no support. The Fed (which is in the transitory camp when it comes to inflation) risks overheating the economy by creating runaway inflation, according to PTJ.</p>\n<p>Now I don’t see eye to eye with Jones on this, though I should point out, he's a billionaire from investing in financial markets, and let’s just say I’m not. I should also point out that Jones, 66, is in fact old enough to remember inflation, never mind that as a young man he called the 1987 stock market crash. So we should all ignore Jones at our peril.</p>\n<p>As for what the Fed put forth this past Wednesday, well it wasn’t much, signaling an expectation ofraising interest rates twice by the end of 2023(yes, that is down the road.) And Powell, who’s become much more adept at not rippling the waters these days after some rougher forays earlier in his tenure, didn’t drop any bombshells in the presser.</p>\n<p>Which brings us to the question of why the Federal Reserve isn’t so concerned about inflation and thinks it is mostly—here’s that word again—transitory. To answer that, we need to first address why prices are rising right now, which can be summed up in one very familiar abbreviation: COVID-19. When COVID hit last spring the economy collapsed, which crushed demand in sectors like leisure, travel and retail. Now the economy is roaring back to life and businesses can raise prices, certainly over 2020 levels.</p>\n<p>“We clearly should’ve expected it,” says William Spriggs, chief economist at the AFL-CIO and a professor of economics at Howard University. “You can’t shut down the economy and think you turn on the switch [without some inflation].”</p>\n<p>“We had a pandemic that forced an artificial shutdown of the economy in a way that even the collapse of the financial system and the housing market didn’t, and we had a snapback at a rate we’ve never seen before—not because of the fundamentals driving recovery but because of government,” says Joel Naroff, president and chief economist of Naroff Economics.</p>\n<p>COVID had other secondary effects on the economy though, besides just ultimately producing a snapback. For one thing, the pandemic throttled supply chains, specifically the shipping of parts and components from one part of the globe to another. It also confused managers about how much to produce and therefore how many parts to order.</p>\n<p>A prime example here is what happened to the chip (semiconductor) and auto industrieswhich I wrote about last month.Car makers thought no one would buy vehicles during the pandemic and pared back their orders with chipmakers, (which were having a tough time shipping their chips anyway.) Turned out the car guys were wrong, millions of people wanted cars and trucks, but the automakers didn’t have enough chips for their cars and had to curb production. Fewer vehicles and strong demand led to higher new car prices, which cascaded to used car prices then to car rental rates. Net net, all the friction and slowness of getting things delivered now adds to costs which causes companies to raise prices.</p>\n<p>Another secondary effect of COVID which has been inflationary comes from employment,which I got into a bit last week.We all know millions were thrown out of work by COVID last year, many of whom were backstopped by government payments that could add up to $600 a week (state and federal.) These folks have been none too keen on coming back to work for minimum wage, or $290 a week. So to lure them back employers are having to pay more, which puts more money in people's pockets which allows stores for example to raise prices.</p>\n<p><b>Anti-inflation forces</b></p>\n<p>But here’s the big-time question: If COVID was temporary, and therefore its effects are temporary and inflation is one of its effects then doesn’t it follow, ipso facto, that inflation is (OK I’ll say it again), transitory?</p>\n<p>I say yes, (with a bit of a caveat.) And most economists, like Claudia Sahm, a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute and a former Federal Reserve economist, agree. “‘Transitory’ has become a buzzword,” she says. “It is important to be more concrete about what we mean by that. We’re probably going to see in the next few months inflation numbers that are bigger than average, but as long as they keep stepping down, that’s the sign of it being transitory. If we didn’t see any sign of inflation stepping down some, it would’ve started feeling like ‘Houston, we have a problem.’”</p>\n<p>To buttress my argument beyond that above \"if-then\" syllogism, let’s take a look at why inflation has been so low for the past three decades.</p>\n<p>To me this is mostly obvious. Prices have been tamped down by the greatest anti-inflation force of our lifetime, that being technology, specifically the explosion of consumer technology. Think about it. The first wave of technology, a good example would be IBM mainframes, saved big companies money in back-office functions, savings which they mostly kept for themselves (higher profits) and their shareholders. But the four great landmark events in the advent of consumer technology; the introduction ofthe PC in 1974 (MITS Altair),the Netscape IPO of 1995,Google search in 1998,and the launch of theiPhone in 2007(I remember Steve Jobs demoing it to me like it was yesterday), greatly accelerated, broadened and deepened this deflationary trend.</p>\n<p>Not only has technology been pushing down the cost of everything from drilling for oil, to manufacturing clothes to farming, and allowing for the creation of groundbreaking (and deflationary) competitors like Uber, Airbnb and Netflix, but it also let consumers find—on their phones—the most affordable trip to Hawaii, the least expensive haircut or the best deal on Nikes.</p>\n<p>So technology has reduced the cost of almost everything and will continue to do so the rest of our lifetime. Bottom line: Unless something terrible happens, the power of technology will outweigh and outlive COVID.</p>\n<p>There is one mitigating factor and that is globalism, which is connected to both technology and COVID. Let me briefly explain.</p>\n<p>After World War II, most of humanity has become more and more connected in terms of trade, communication, travel, etc. (See supply chain above.) Technology of course was a major enabler here; better ships, planes and faster internet, all of which as it grew more potent, accelerated globalism. Another element was the introduction of political constructs like the World Trade Organization and NAFTA. (I think of the Clinton administration andChina joining the WTO in 2001as perhaps the high-water marks of globalization.)</p>\n<p>Like its technological cousin, globalism has deflationary effects particularly on the labor front as companies could more and more easily find lowest cost countries to produce goods and source materials. And like technology, globalization seemed inexorable, which it was, until it wasn’t. Political winds, manifested by the likes of Brexit and leaders like Putin, Xi Jinping, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Duterte and of course Donald Trump have caused globalism to wane and anti-globalism and nationalism to wax.</p>\n<p>The internet too, once seen as only a great connector, has also become a global divider, as the world increasingly fractures into Chinese, U.S. and European walled digital zones when it comes to social media and search for example. Security risks, privacy, spying and hacking of course divide us further here too.</p>\n<p>So technology, which had made globalism stronger and stronger, now also makes it weaker and weaker.</p>\n<p>COVID plays a role in rethinking globalism as it exposes vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Companies that were rethinking their manufacturing in China but considering another country, are now wondering if it just makes sense to repatriate the whole shebang. Supply chains that were optimized for cost only are being rethought with security and reliability being factored in and that costs money.</p>\n<p>How significant is this decline in globalization and how permanent is it? Good questions. But my point here is whether or not \"globalism disrupted\" is transitory (!) or not, it could push prices up, (in the short and intermediate run at least), as cost is sacrificed for predictability. Longer term I say Americans are a resourceful people. We’ll figure out how to make cost effective stuff in the U.S. It’s also likely that globalism will trend upward again, though perhaps not as unfettered as it once was.</p>\n<p>More downward pressure on pricing could come from shifts in employment practices. Mark Zandi points out that “the work-from-anywhere dynamic could depress wage growth and prices. If I don’t need to work in New York anymore and could live in Tampa, it stands to reason my wage could get cut or I won’t get the same wage increase in the future.”</p>\n<p>And so what is Zandi’s take on transitory? “What we’re observing now is prices going back to pre-pandemic,” he says. “The price spikes we’re experiencing now will continue for the next few months through summer but certainly by the end of year, this time next year, they will have disappeared. I do think underlying inflation will be higher post-pandemic than pre-pandemic, but that’s a feature not a bug.”</p>\n<p>I don’t disagree. To me it’s simple: The technology wave I’ve described above is bigger than COVID and bigger than the rise and fall of globalism. And that is why, ladies and gentlemen, I believe inflation will be transitory, certainly in the long run. (Though I’m well aware of whatJohn Maynard Keynes said about the long run.)</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Answering the great inflation question of our time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnswering the great inflation question of our time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html><strong>finance.yahoo</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.\nUnfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133385197","content_text":"Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.\nUnfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these days—is conjecture. And that’s vexing, not just for the dismal scientists (aka economists), but for all of us, because whether or not prices are really rising, by how much and for how long, has massive implications in our lives. Or as Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, says: “Inflation is one of the mysteries of economic study and thought. A difficult thing to gauge and forecast and get right. That’s why the risks are high.”\nThe current debate over inflation really revolves around two questions: First, is this current spate of inflation, just that, a spate—or to use Wall Street’s buzzword of the moment, “transitory,”—or not? (Just to give you an idea of how buzzy, when I Google the word “transitory” the search engine suggests “inflation” after it.) And second, transitory (aka temporary) inflation or not, what does it suggest for the economy and markets?\nBefore I get into that, let me lay out what’s going on with prices right now. First, know that inflation,which peaked in 1980 at an annualized rate of 13.55%,has been tame for quite some time, specifically 4% or less for nearly 30 years. Which means that anyone 40 years old or younger has no experience with inflation other than maybe from an Econ 101 textbook. Obviously that could be a problem.\nAs an aside I remember President Ford in 1974 trying to jawbone inflation down with his \"Whip Inflation Now\" campaign, which featured“Win” buttons,earringsand evenugly sweaters.None of this worked and it took draconian measures by Fed Chair Paul Volcker (raising rates and targeting money supply,as described by Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, William Poole)to eventually tame inflation and keep it under wraps for all those years.\nUntil now perhaps. Last week theLabor Department reported that consumer prices (the CPI, or consumer price index) rose 5% in May,the fastest annual rate in nearly 13 years—which was when the economy was overheating from the housing boom which subsequently went bust and sent the economy off a cliff and into the Great Recession. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 3.8%, the biggest increase since May 1992. (For the record, the likelihood of the economy tanking right now is de minimis.)\n\nUsed car and truck prices are a major driver of inflation, climbing 7.3% last month and 29.7% over the past year. New car prices are up too, which have pushed upshares of Ford and GM a remarkable 40% plus this year.Clearly Americans want to buy vehicles to go on vacation and get back to work. And Yahoo Finance’sJanna Herron reportsthat rents are rising at their fastest pace in 15 years.\nTo be sure, not all prices are climbing.As Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman points out,prices are not up much at all for health care, education and are basically flat for technology, including computers, smartphones and internet service (an important point which we’ll get back to.)\nBut that’s the counterpoint really. Americans are obsessed with cars, housing is critical and many of us are experiencing sticker shock booking travel this summer. Higher prices are front and center. Wall Street too is in a tizzy about inflation, and concerns about it and more importantly Federal Reserve policy in response to inflation (see below), sent stocks lower with the S&P 500 down 1.91% this week, its worst week since February.\nGiven this backdrop, the tension (such as it is) was high when the Fed met this week to deliver its forecast and for Chair Jay Powell to answer questions from the media. Or at least so said hedge fund honcho Paul Tudor Jones,who characterized the proceedings on CNBCas “the most important meeting in [Chairman] Jay Powell’s career, certainly the most important Fed meeting of the past four or five years.” Jones was critical of the Fed, which he believes is now stimulating the economy unnecessarily by keeping interest rates low and by buying financial assets. Unnecessarily, Jones says, because the economy is already running hot and needs no support. The Fed (which is in the transitory camp when it comes to inflation) risks overheating the economy by creating runaway inflation, according to PTJ.\nNow I don’t see eye to eye with Jones on this, though I should point out, he's a billionaire from investing in financial markets, and let’s just say I’m not. I should also point out that Jones, 66, is in fact old enough to remember inflation, never mind that as a young man he called the 1987 stock market crash. So we should all ignore Jones at our peril.\nAs for what the Fed put forth this past Wednesday, well it wasn’t much, signaling an expectation ofraising interest rates twice by the end of 2023(yes, that is down the road.) And Powell, who’s become much more adept at not rippling the waters these days after some rougher forays earlier in his tenure, didn’t drop any bombshells in the presser.\nWhich brings us to the question of why the Federal Reserve isn’t so concerned about inflation and thinks it is mostly—here’s that word again—transitory. To answer that, we need to first address why prices are rising right now, which can be summed up in one very familiar abbreviation: COVID-19. When COVID hit last spring the economy collapsed, which crushed demand in sectors like leisure, travel and retail. Now the economy is roaring back to life and businesses can raise prices, certainly over 2020 levels.\n“We clearly should’ve expected it,” says William Spriggs, chief economist at the AFL-CIO and a professor of economics at Howard University. “You can’t shut down the economy and think you turn on the switch [without some inflation].”\n“We had a pandemic that forced an artificial shutdown of the economy in a way that even the collapse of the financial system and the housing market didn’t, and we had a snapback at a rate we’ve never seen before—not because of the fundamentals driving recovery but because of government,” says Joel Naroff, president and chief economist of Naroff Economics.\nCOVID had other secondary effects on the economy though, besides just ultimately producing a snapback. For one thing, the pandemic throttled supply chains, specifically the shipping of parts and components from one part of the globe to another. It also confused managers about how much to produce and therefore how many parts to order.\nA prime example here is what happened to the chip (semiconductor) and auto industrieswhich I wrote about last month.Car makers thought no one would buy vehicles during the pandemic and pared back their orders with chipmakers, (which were having a tough time shipping their chips anyway.) Turned out the car guys were wrong, millions of people wanted cars and trucks, but the automakers didn’t have enough chips for their cars and had to curb production. Fewer vehicles and strong demand led to higher new car prices, which cascaded to used car prices then to car rental rates. Net net, all the friction and slowness of getting things delivered now adds to costs which causes companies to raise prices.\nAnother secondary effect of COVID which has been inflationary comes from employment,which I got into a bit last week.We all know millions were thrown out of work by COVID last year, many of whom were backstopped by government payments that could add up to $600 a week (state and federal.) These folks have been none too keen on coming back to work for minimum wage, or $290 a week. So to lure them back employers are having to pay more, which puts more money in people's pockets which allows stores for example to raise prices.\nAnti-inflation forces\nBut here’s the big-time question: If COVID was temporary, and therefore its effects are temporary and inflation is one of its effects then doesn’t it follow, ipso facto, that inflation is (OK I’ll say it again), transitory?\nI say yes, (with a bit of a caveat.) And most economists, like Claudia Sahm, a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute and a former Federal Reserve economist, agree. “‘Transitory’ has become a buzzword,” she says. “It is important to be more concrete about what we mean by that. We’re probably going to see in the next few months inflation numbers that are bigger than average, but as long as they keep stepping down, that’s the sign of it being transitory. If we didn’t see any sign of inflation stepping down some, it would’ve started feeling like ‘Houston, we have a problem.’”\nTo buttress my argument beyond that above \"if-then\" syllogism, let’s take a look at why inflation has been so low for the past three decades.\nTo me this is mostly obvious. Prices have been tamped down by the greatest anti-inflation force of our lifetime, that being technology, specifically the explosion of consumer technology. Think about it. The first wave of technology, a good example would be IBM mainframes, saved big companies money in back-office functions, savings which they mostly kept for themselves (higher profits) and their shareholders. But the four great landmark events in the advent of consumer technology; the introduction ofthe PC in 1974 (MITS Altair),the Netscape IPO of 1995,Google search in 1998,and the launch of theiPhone in 2007(I remember Steve Jobs demoing it to me like it was yesterday), greatly accelerated, broadened and deepened this deflationary trend.\nNot only has technology been pushing down the cost of everything from drilling for oil, to manufacturing clothes to farming, and allowing for the creation of groundbreaking (and deflationary) competitors like Uber, Airbnb and Netflix, but it also let consumers find—on their phones—the most affordable trip to Hawaii, the least expensive haircut or the best deal on Nikes.\nSo technology has reduced the cost of almost everything and will continue to do so the rest of our lifetime. Bottom line: Unless something terrible happens, the power of technology will outweigh and outlive COVID.\nThere is one mitigating factor and that is globalism, which is connected to both technology and COVID. Let me briefly explain.\nAfter World War II, most of humanity has become more and more connected in terms of trade, communication, travel, etc. (See supply chain above.) Technology of course was a major enabler here; better ships, planes and faster internet, all of which as it grew more potent, accelerated globalism. Another element was the introduction of political constructs like the World Trade Organization and NAFTA. (I think of the Clinton administration andChina joining the WTO in 2001as perhaps the high-water marks of globalization.)\nLike its technological cousin, globalism has deflationary effects particularly on the labor front as companies could more and more easily find lowest cost countries to produce goods and source materials. And like technology, globalization seemed inexorable, which it was, until it wasn’t. Political winds, manifested by the likes of Brexit and leaders like Putin, Xi Jinping, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Duterte and of course Donald Trump have caused globalism to wane and anti-globalism and nationalism to wax.\nThe internet too, once seen as only a great connector, has also become a global divider, as the world increasingly fractures into Chinese, U.S. and European walled digital zones when it comes to social media and search for example. Security risks, privacy, spying and hacking of course divide us further here too.\nSo technology, which had made globalism stronger and stronger, now also makes it weaker and weaker.\nCOVID plays a role in rethinking globalism as it exposes vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Companies that were rethinking their manufacturing in China but considering another country, are now wondering if it just makes sense to repatriate the whole shebang. Supply chains that were optimized for cost only are being rethought with security and reliability being factored in and that costs money.\nHow significant is this decline in globalization and how permanent is it? Good questions. But my point here is whether or not \"globalism disrupted\" is transitory (!) or not, it could push prices up, (in the short and intermediate run at least), as cost is sacrificed for predictability. Longer term I say Americans are a resourceful people. We’ll figure out how to make cost effective stuff in the U.S. It’s also likely that globalism will trend upward again, though perhaps not as unfettered as it once was.\nMore downward pressure on pricing could come from shifts in employment practices. Mark Zandi points out that “the work-from-anywhere dynamic could depress wage growth and prices. If I don’t need to work in New York anymore and could live in Tampa, it stands to reason my wage could get cut or I won’t get the same wage increase in the future.”\nAnd so what is Zandi’s take on transitory? “What we’re observing now is prices going back to pre-pandemic,” he says. “The price spikes we’re experiencing now will continue for the next few months through summer but certainly by the end of year, this time next year, they will have disappeared. I do think underlying inflation will be higher post-pandemic than pre-pandemic, but that’s a feature not a bug.”\nI don’t disagree. To me it’s simple: The technology wave I’ve described above is bigger than COVID and bigger than the rise and fall of globalism. And that is why, ladies and gentlemen, I believe inflation will be transitory, certainly in the long run. (Though I’m well aware of whatJohn Maynard Keynes said about the long run.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165405201,"gmtCreate":1624154140703,"gmtModify":1631891311069,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165405201","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166347366,"gmtCreate":1623993942955,"gmtModify":1631891311069,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment n like","listText":"Comment n like","text":"Comment n like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166347366","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175693382?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>\n <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>\n <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>\n <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>The Technical Thesis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p>\n<p>Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p>\n<p>One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p>\n<p>Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p>\n<p>Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p>\n<p>BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p>\n<p><b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p>\n<p>Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166344644,"gmtCreate":1623993915388,"gmtModify":1631891311065,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166344644","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175693382?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>\n <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>\n <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>\n <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>The Technical Thesis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p>\n<p>Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p>\n<p>One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p>\n<p>Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p>\n<p>Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p>\n<p>BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p>\n<p><b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p>\n<p>Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166342598,"gmtCreate":1623993853014,"gmtModify":1631891311069,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3587081359050751","authorIdStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166342598","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175693382?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>\n <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>\n <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>\n <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>The Technical Thesis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p>\n<p>Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p>\n<p>One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p>\n<p>Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p>\n<p>Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p>\n<p>BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p>\n<p><b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p>\n<p>Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":809939355,"gmtCreate":1627343285177,"gmtModify":1631886472244,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Comment","listText":"&nbsp;Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809939355","repostId":"1153028059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153028059","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627340900,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1153028059?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153028059","media":"Reuters","summary":" -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operati","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.</p>\n<p>Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.</p>\n<p>For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.</p>\n<p>Shares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.</p>\n<p>In a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.</p>\n<p>“The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.</p>\n<p>Still, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.</p>\n<p>Despite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.</p>\n<p>The carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.</p>\n<p>Analysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p>\n<p>Excluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.</p>\n<p>Tesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.</p>\n<p>Tesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.</p>\n<p>“Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.</p>\n<p>Carmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.</p>\n<p>Tesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.</p>\n<p>But the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.</p>\n<p>In an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-27 07:08 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-results/update-4-tesla-sales-surge-98-company-boosts-margins-on-its-less-costly-electric-cars-idUSL4N2P23I5><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-results/update-4-tesla-sales-surge-98-company-boosts-margins-on-its-less-costly-electric-cars-idUSL4N2P23I5\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-results/update-4-tesla-sales-surge-98-company-boosts-margins-on-its-less-costly-electric-cars-idUSL4N2P23I5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153028059","content_text":"(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.\nTesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.\nFor the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.\nShares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.\nIn a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.\n“The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.\nStill, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.\nDespite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.\nThe carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.\nAnalysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nExcluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.\nTesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.\nTesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.\n“Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.\nCarmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.\nTesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.\nBut the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.\nIn an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":700,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802092266,"gmtCreate":1627697863555,"gmtModify":1631886472235,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802092266","repostId":"1106964638","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106964638","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627689499,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1106964638?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 07:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"July jobs report could be what gives the market its next big jolt in the week ahead","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106964638","media":"cnbc","summary":"KEY POINTS\n\nMore than a quarter of S&P 500 companies report in the week ahead, but the July jobs rep","content":"<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nMore than a quarter of S&P 500 companies report in the week ahead, but the July jobs report on Friday will be what matters most to markets.\nOne strategist said the jobs number could be a “...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/july-jobs-report-could-be-what-gives-the-market-its-next-big-jolt-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>July jobs report could be what gives the market its next big jolt in the week ahead</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJuly jobs report could be what gives the market its next big jolt in the week ahead\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-31 07:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/july-jobs-report-could-be-what-gives-the-market-its-next-big-jolt-in-the-week-ahead.html><strong>cnbc</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>KEY POINTS\n\nMore than a quarter of S&P 500 companies report in the week ahead, but the July jobs report on Friday will be what matters most to markets.\nOne strategist said the jobs number could be a “...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/july-jobs-report-could-be-what-gives-the-market-its-next-big-jolt-in-the-week-ahead.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/july-jobs-report-could-be-what-gives-the-market-its-next-big-jolt-in-the-week-ahead.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1106964638","content_text":"KEY POINTS\n\nMore than a quarter of S&P 500 companies report in the week ahead, but the July jobs report on Friday will be what matters most to markets.\nOne strategist said the jobs number could be a “game changer” since a strong number could encourage the Federal Reserve to tighten policy, while a weak number could delay it from paring back bond purchases.\n\nFriday’s jobs report could be a catalyst that helps determine whether markets are volatile or will trade like it’s the quiet dog days of August.\nMore than a quarter of theS&P 500report earnings in the coming week. The calendar includes companies in sectors such as consumer staples, insurance, pharma, travel and media. FromBooking HoldingstoViacomCBS,WayfairandKellogg, investors will be watching to see what companies say about reopening activity, supply chain disruptions and rising costs.\n“I think as much as 85% of the companies which are reporting earnings mentioned inflation on their earnings calls,” Franklin Templeton Fixed Income chief investment officer Sonal Desai said. “Inflation may not be a problem to policymakers and financial markets, which seem not to be concerned at all. It does seem to bother the people who have to buy stuff or people who produce stuff.”\nThe jobs factor\nThe Federal Reserve has said the sharp jump in inflation is just temporary, and many investors appear to be taking it in stride for now. The market is intensely focused on the central bank's other mandate: the labor market. Fed Chairman Jerome Powellsaid Wednesdayhe would like to seestrong jobs reportsbefore winding down the central bank's $120 billion a month bond-buying program.\nThe U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release theJuly employment reporton the morning of Friday, Aug. 6. It's expected to show 788,000 nonfarm payrolls, down from 850,000 in June, according to Dow Jones. The unemployment rate is expected to dip to 5.7% from 5.9%. Average hourly wages are expected to rise 3.9% year over year.\nIronsides Macroeconomics director of research Barry Knapp said he expects the next two monthly jobs reports will be strong, and the Fed should then be ready to announce in September that it is ready to start the slow unwind of its bond purchasing program.\nThat is an important step since it would be the first real move away from the central bank’s easy policies that were put in place in the pandemic. It would also mean the Fed would be open to raising interest rates once the tapering is completed.\n\nGame changer for markets\n\"Friday could be a game changer,\" Knapp said of the employment report. Before that, he expects stocks to trade in a narrow range.\nIf the number of jobs added in July is much higher than expected, at more than 1 million, Knapp said the market could immediately sell off on the idea the Fed would be ready to pare back its bond purchases.\nIf the number is weaker than expected, the market could rally. \"We are in a dead period after earnings, with concerns about the pace of the reopening. It's still a bit of a question mark. The bias would be higher after a weak number. ... Bad is good. Good is bad,\" said Knapp.\nLike some other strategists, he expects tosee a stock market correction,possibly later this summer.\n“I’m in the camp where I think we’re going to have our first major correction.” Knapp said. “What we’re likely to get is at least 10% or more. ... It could really happen when they [Fed officials] make the announcement in September.”\nWilmington Trust chief economist Luke Tilley said he expects just 350,000 jobs, based on the high frequency data he watches.\n“We think the run rate is about 500,000 jobs. Last month seems a little bit overcooked,” he said.\nReflation trade\nTheS&P 500was down 0.4% in the past week, finishing at 4,395, while the Nasdaq lost even more , down 1.1% at 14,672.\nCyclical stocks were among the best performers. Materials jumped 2.8% in the week, and energy shares were up 1.6%. Financials gained 0.7%. But tech fell 0.7%.\nKnapp said it now makes sense to hold stocks that are in the reflation trade, such as energy, industrials or materials.\nThe surge in the delta variant of the coronavirus has become a worry among investors and has been a factor holding down interest rates. The 10-year yield, which moves opposite price, has held at low levels and was at 1.23% on Friday, amid concern that the delta variant of the coronavirus could slow growth.\nInvestors will be watching other important data in the coming week, including theInstitute for Supply Management’smanufacturing data Monday, andjobless claimsand trade data Thursday.\nThe China trade\nChina was also a dominant market story in the past week and could continue to be. Hong Kong’sHang SengIndexfell5% for the week. Chinese regulators continued theircrackdown on internet companies, publicly traded education companies and other industries.\nStrategists say Beijing is trying to reclaim its biggest companies as its own and turn them away from listings in foreign markets. Officials were particularly upset withDidi Globalwhichreportedly went public even after being warned not toby Beijing.\nChinese regulators reportedly spoke with international banksafter their actions sparked a wave of selling in internet stocks and the broader Chinese stock market. The regulators saidcompanies could continue to go publicin the U.S. if they met listing requirements.\n“We will continue to see regulators try to calm the waters. I would say this was a communications misstep,” said Franklin Templeton’s Desai. “You don’t have massive swings without having negative impact.” She added it sent ripples through emerging markets.\n“This is China trying to gain control, and they tried to do it in a very heavy way, and they were surprised at the backlash,” Desai said.\nTheKraneShares CSI China Internet ETFhas lost about half its value from its peak in February, and was down another 2.6% Friday.\nInternet retailerAlibabais one of the ETF’s top holdings. The company is expected to announce earnings on Tuesday.\nWeek ahead calendarMonday\nEarnings:Take-Two Interactive,Mosaic,Vornado Realty,Eastman Chemical, Simon Property,Transocean,Pioneer Natural Resources, Reynolds Consumer Products, ON Semiconductor, NXP Semiconductor, AXA, Loews\n9:45 a.m. Manufacturing PMI\n10:00 a.m. ISM manufacturing\n10:00 a.m. Construction spending\n10:00 am. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren\n2:00 p.m. Senior loan officer survey\nTuesday\nEarnings:Alibaba,Amgen, Eli Lilly,Clorox, KKR,Under Armour, Eaton, Discovery, Pitney Bowes,Marriott,ConocoPhillips, Activision Blizzard,Avis Budget,Public Storage, Devon Energy, Jacobs Engineering, Bausch Health, Incyte, Philips 66,Ralph Lauren,Expeditors International,Nikola,Warner Music\n10:00 a.m. Factory orders\n11:00 a.m. New York Fed release on household debt and credit\nWednesday\nEarnings:Booking Holdings,CVS Health, GM, Etsy,MGM Resorts,Allstate,Uber,Fox Corp., Electronic Arts, Roku,Kraft Heinz,Toyota, Sony,AmerisourceBergen,Marathon Petroleum, BorgWarner, Entergy, Apollo Global Management, New York Times,Scotts Miracle-Gro, Tupperware,MetLife,IAC/Interactive\n8:15 a.m. ADP employment\n9:45 a.m. Services PMI\n10:00 a.m. ISM services\nThursday\nVehicle sales\nEarnings:Regeneron,ViacomCBS, Beyond Meat, DropBox,Expedia,Sprouts Farmers Market, TrueCar, Shake Shack,Square, TripAdvisor, Cushman and Wakefield,Kellogg,Cigna, Zillow, Lions Gate, Ambac, Virgin Galactic,Motorola Solutions,Zynga, Illumina, AIG, SeaWorld, Cardinal Health,Duke Energy, Thomson Reuters,Datadog,Eventbrite,NRG Energy,Choice Hotels,Parker-Hannifin,Wayfair,Zoetis\n8:30 a.m. Initial jobless claims\n8:30 a.m. International trade\nFriday\nEarnings:Liberty Broadband, Liberty Media, AMC Networks,Draftkings, Fluor, Gannett,Canopy Growth,Nuance Communiciations,Goodyear Tire\n8:30 a.m. Employment report\n10:00 a.m. Wholesale trade\n3:00 p.m. Consumer credit","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175215167,"gmtCreate":1627034119359,"gmtModify":1631886472272,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175215167","repostId":"1123663609","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123663609","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627033420,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1123663609?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-23 17:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Volatility Beckons After Warp-Speed Recovery","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123663609","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"The record-quick Covid recession and rebound raises the question of whether we’re really in a new ec","content":"<blockquote>\n The record-quick Covid recession and rebound raises the question of whether we’re really in a&nbsp;new economic cycle. The answer matters&nbsp;for financial markets.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Blink and You Missed It</b></p>\n<p>The most startling announcement this week concerned news that was more than a year old. In the U.S., the recession driven by the Covid-19 shutdown ended in April 2020. It only lasted two months. So said theNational Bureau of Economic Research,&nbsp;and it’s a reasonable judgment. It also means that this recession wasby far the shortest on record, as well as the deepest if judged by the increase in unemployment:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ea1b9d605f76d9f1433630d20baaa35\" tg-width=\"1639\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As the deepest recession on record, it makes sense to say that a new economic cycle started in May last year. As the shortest, it’s questionable whether we should regard it as anything more than a transitory (that word again) blip. According to the latest forecast from the Congressional Budget Office, the output gap (the distance between the economy’s actual and potential production) will be eliminated by the end of this year. This chart is from Jitesh Kumar of Societe Generale SA:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e104d6ca896ce5837a5c44a42b19ea11\" tg-width=\"526\" tg-height=\"281\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">This is such a dramatic recovery that it raises the issue of whether we should call it a new cycle. Here is&nbsp;the same chart&nbsp;after removing the V-shaped months when Covid took over:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0ad358a9067c13bb1b2a80befab06be\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"279\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Cognitive dissonance begins. How do policymakers handle&nbsp;this? And how should investors? To further complicate things, the U.S. is in a completely different place from the rest of the developed world. No other leading economy is on course to eliminate its output gap this year, and only Canada will manage to do it by the end of next year, according to IMF estimates graphed by Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank AG:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/525e3ce925853b8037f6d2da41a10363\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>That would imply that the U.S. should be tightening monetary policy much earlier than anyone else, and that the dollar should strengthen. That would help to douse U.S.&nbsp;inflation, but put pressure on emerging markets. As Kumar shows, the Fed’s interest rates, relative to current core inflation and taking account of asset purchases, are the easiest they have ever been. That is almost impossible to justify if the economy is really only in the interrupted final stage of an expansion that started more than a decade ago:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d235af9604ad7a6b17dd82cdd0c5f32\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The speed of the recovery matters to financial markets. If the economy is growing but more slowly (in other words, the second derivative has changed), that is usually the cue for stock markets to slow down. If we’re in the late stages of a long cycle, it need not be long until the first derivative shifts. Larry Hatheway of Jackson Hole Economics summed up the problem thusly:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>Simply put, the fundamentals have shifted. After six months of congruent first and second derivatives, divergence has arrived. An inflection point is upon us. Growth is high, but decelerating.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>When the first and second derivatives fall out sync, investors become less certain. Bulls and bears tussle. Market gyrations become more pronounced. Leadership shifts, and then shifts again.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In short, volatility and dispersion increase. That’s the calculus of first and second derivatives.&nbsp;We should probably get used to it.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Inflation and Transience</b></p>\n<p>Some more comments on the debate are in order. Our ongoingindicators&nbsp;should be useful on this. One point made by Albert Edwards, also of SocGen, is interesting. Although famously bearish, he suggests that there is reason not to be too worried about inflation. Core inflation, excluding food and fuel, normally proceeds in line with the median —&nbsp;the level of inflation for whichever component happens to be in the middle. That relationship has broken down, and the median continues to give comfort:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95525582d8208c1e4e6f428449531997\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"304\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>At the very least, this is a sign that something unusual is afoot. However, Edwards also cites more disquieting data for “cyclical” inflation that show, again, how behavior in this cycle is different from those that precede it. If we split “core” inflation into cyclical and non-cyclical elements, a normal recession leads to sharp falls in the cyclical measure. This recession has led to no decline at all.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44799ae941e301646fa6d9ab7873e611\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>If the economic cycle isn’t pushing inflation down, there is no need for monetary easing, which indeed could drive prices up.&nbsp;That is concerning.</p>\n<p>Then there is the issue of what time period people have in mind when they say that inflation will be “transitory.” The base effects caused by last year’s collapse and subsequent rally in commodity prices won’t correct until next year. This chart is from Stonex Group Inc.’s Vincent Deluard, and shows the year-on-year inflation in gasoline and&nbsp;broader commodities if prices just stay where they are:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b079f226c736be0c68f82c1edb61c4a\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"188\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Queer as Folk</b></p>\n<p>What are people going to do? Economics isn’t like the physical sciences. Its laws must be refracted through numerous individual human decisions. The pandemic, and the lightning-quick recession and recovery, may have changed psychology and thus economic responses, but we don’t know yet.</p>\n<p>One critical question concerns consumers. They are sitting on lots of cash. Are they going to spend it? If they do, that will be good for growth, but will tend to confirm the warnings of inflationistas. If they don’t, then the U.S. and Europe could find their economies growing ever more constipated, like Japan’s.</p>\n<p>George Saravelos of Deutsche Bank drew this chart from the latest University of Michigan survey of consumers. One question is whether they think it’s a good or a bad time to buy a large household item. Generally, if you think there’s inflation coming, you want to buy now. If you think we’re mired in deflation, you want to defer. And stunningly, even though headline inflation is the worst in three decades, fewer people want to buy now than at any time since the survey started, five decades ago. Even more than at the worst of the global financial crisis, U.S. consumers on this evidence appear to be braced for deflation.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16c89b29716d62397c6f88846381f2c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Such behavior can easily be a self-fulfilling prophecy. And the experience of past pandemics is that people are noticeably more conservative in spending habits for years afterwards. Maybe that will hold true.</p>\n<p>That leads to another critical question. Will workers push for higher wages? Again, the evidence of past pandemics is that they do —&nbsp;and after many years of stagnant wage growth across the West, there would be much justification for doing so. Two good measures of workers’ confidence suggest unequivocally that employees are behaving as though they hold all the cards, even though unemployment is staying disappointingly high. The National Federation of Independent Business’ index of employers finding jobs hard to fill hit an all-time high in May, and barely declined in June. Meanwhile the quit rate, the proportion of people voluntarily leaving their job without another to go to, reached the highest in its 20-year history. It dropped last month, though is still at a level never seen before this year. The measures suggest that workers really are going to push for higher wages —&nbsp;which would be good for social cohesion, and not for inflation:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/169b6a5f0d1db542095ac6d1757c70b0\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Will this happen? Again, it will depend on millions of personal decisions. Butsome fascinating research from the Becker Friedman Institute for Economicsat the University of Chicago suggests that working from home is going to last, and is giving people a stronger incentive to play tough. In a wide survey, they found 6% of workers would quit instantly if their employers said they had to be back in the office five days per week next month:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d7b16fe305edea552ad9fecea51de2f\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Employees are still hoping to work from home 2.35 days per week once the pandemic is over. This is coming down, but is still far in excess of employers’ plans to permit 1.2 days per week.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2490bf3fe71ddef3e56f5eb51c919d12\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"542\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>The latest initial jobless claims numbers, produced weekly and very noisy, showed a surprising increase in the number of people signing on. It’s a strange labor market, to say the least; the pandemic, and working from home, may yet prove to have changed preferences profoundly.</p>\n<p>Delta Blues</p>\n<p>The delta variant should worry all of us. But how much should it affect the economy or financial markets? Probably not that&nbsp;much, though a lot depends on how optimistic your assumptions were.</p>\n<p>It’s clear that the variant is very infectious. In the U.K., the developed country where delta first made landfall, this wave has caused as many infections as the one that preceded it. The critical difference is that it has claimed far fewer lives. This chart, from the great newsletter produced by Whitney Tilson of Empire Financial Research, shows that vaccinations have severed the link between&nbsp;infections and deaths:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b524e3b050f0d3d708a041fa06f320b\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"439\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>However, this doesn’t mean that delta has been costless. U.K. deaths are increasing fast, looked at on a log scale.&nbsp;With an unvaccinated population to feed on, there is every reason to assume that delta would have been more lethal than earlier waves:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cfc8142fccf32f5d4ee85ff155a14c7\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Thankfully, the U.K. is widely vaccinated, while most of continental Europe has similar levels.&nbsp;Thus, even as delta leads to rising infections, the return to something like normality continues. As this chart from Mitsubishi UFJ Finance Group Inc. shows, restrictions have been largely lifted across Europe and even,&nbsp;controversially, in the U.K.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/186a94c7a46216292acfebc72d1545fa\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>More importantly, actual mobility is also back to something close to normal (although it has declined in the U.K.):</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/939eb8d6d09a4d271ac3a04caf089c60\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Delta, on this basis, should lead investors to trim their forecasts at the margin. It doesn’t appear capable of driving a fresh downturn on its own. The same isn’t true of many emerging markets.</p>\n<p>For investors, the imponderable is what to do about the U.S., where vaccination has become a political issue. This chart from Tilson shows how vaccination rates vary with states’ political allegiance:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eaabd4633149dbc7b3c0095366009f5\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Bilal Hafeez of Macro Hive offers a similar graphic, this time with vaccination rates on one axis and test positivity rates on the other. Vaccinations mean fewer infections, and in the current American political reality this means fewer infections in blue states, and more in red states:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac20fa6a2ecd99373dfd265d3b29be70\" tg-width=\"400\" tg-height=\"371\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>There are plenty of American states, then, which have a big enough unvaccinated population for delta to have a serious medical impact. The following chart, from Oliver Brennan of TS Lombard of London, maps vaccination rates against current increases in infections:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/724a04b7bfe66731ea002244e701087c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"403\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Arkansas gives cause for great human concern. But to be cold-blooded about this, most of the states at the right of the chart are relatively small. And what matters for economic growth isn’t the death toll or hospitalizations but the impact on economic behavior. Brennan suggests that red states, where risk is greatest, won’t do anything to impede activity. Thus the economic impact should be more limited. Meanwhile, the biggest blue states tend to be highly vaccinated and already&nbsp;economically open. This is activity data for California, Texas and New York:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16bf28a8708693abf0771f7b639d75c\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"660\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Brennan’s assessment is as follows:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The economic impact will take place when (a) a large share of the US economy is affected by rising cases and (b) policymakers’ response is to tighten restrictions and lockdowns. And, for US states, the latter has become a lightning rod of the culture war. The key point here is that (a) it is mostly red states currently suffering resurgent waves and (b) it is unlikely that a red state will enter another lockdown. So, while it is right to worry about Florida and other states where cases are exploding, for our investment process we should focus on California, Texas and New York – three states that, combined, make up one-third of US economic activity. Since Texas is a red state, we do not expect it to reimpose any type of restrictions; California and New York both have more than 50% of their adult population fully vaccinated which means the delta wave should not be critical.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>This doesn’t mean we don’t need to worry. If delta gets a foothold in a lightly vaccinated state, as it has in the U.K., economic activity will decline without formal lockdowns. Even Texans would be more careful. So far, the U.K. resurgence has had only a muted effect. If that pattern is repeated in the U.S., then delta could affect the second derivative (slowing growth). It’s hard to see it leading to an outright decline, so the risk of another lightning-quick recession is minimal.</p>","source":"lsy1584095487587","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Volatility Beckons After Warp-Speed Recovery</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nVolatility Beckons After Warp-Speed Recovery\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-23 17:43 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-07-23/market-volatility-beckons-after-warp-speed-covid-recovery?srnd=opinion><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The record-quick Covid recession and rebound raises the question of whether we’re really in a new economic cycle. The answer matters for financial markets.\n\nBlink and You Missed It\nThe most startling ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-07-23/market-volatility-beckons-after-warp-speed-covid-recovery?srnd=opinion\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-07-23/market-volatility-beckons-after-warp-speed-covid-recovery?srnd=opinion","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123663609","content_text":"The record-quick Covid recession and rebound raises the question of whether we’re really in a new economic cycle. The answer matters for financial markets.\n\nBlink and You Missed It\nThe most startling announcement this week concerned news that was more than a year old. In the U.S., the recession driven by the Covid-19 shutdown ended in April 2020. It only lasted two months. So said theNational Bureau of Economic Research, and it’s a reasonable judgment. It also means that this recession wasby far the shortest on record, as well as the deepest if judged by the increase in unemployment:\nAs the deepest recession on record, it makes sense to say that a new economic cycle started in May last year. As the shortest, it’s questionable whether we should regard it as anything more than a transitory (that word again) blip. According to the latest forecast from the Congressional Budget Office, the output gap (the distance between the economy’s actual and potential production) will be eliminated by the end of this year. This chart is from Jitesh Kumar of Societe Generale SA:\nThis is such a dramatic recovery that it raises the issue of whether we should call it a new cycle. Here is the same chart after removing the V-shaped months when Covid took over:\nCognitive dissonance begins. How do policymakers handle this? And how should investors? To further complicate things, the U.S. is in a completely different place from the rest of the developed world. No other leading economy is on course to eliminate its output gap this year, and only Canada will manage to do it by the end of next year, according to IMF estimates graphed by Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank AG:\n\nThat would imply that the U.S. should be tightening monetary policy much earlier than anyone else, and that the dollar should strengthen. That would help to douse U.S. inflation, but put pressure on emerging markets. As Kumar shows, the Fed’s interest rates, relative to current core inflation and taking account of asset purchases, are the easiest they have ever been. That is almost impossible to justify if the economy is really only in the interrupted final stage of an expansion that started more than a decade ago:\n\nThe speed of the recovery matters to financial markets. If the economy is growing but more slowly (in other words, the second derivative has changed), that is usually the cue for stock markets to slow down. If we’re in the late stages of a long cycle, it need not be long until the first derivative shifts. Larry Hatheway of Jackson Hole Economics summed up the problem thusly:\n\nSimply put, the fundamentals have shifted. After six months of congruent first and second derivatives, divergence has arrived. An inflection point is upon us. Growth is high, but decelerating.\n\n\nWhen the first and second derivatives fall out sync, investors become less certain. Bulls and bears tussle. Market gyrations become more pronounced. Leadership shifts, and then shifts again.\n\n\nIn short, volatility and dispersion increase. That’s the calculus of first and second derivatives. We should probably get used to it.\n\nInflation and Transience\nSome more comments on the debate are in order. Our ongoingindicators should be useful on this. One point made by Albert Edwards, also of SocGen, is interesting. Although famously bearish, he suggests that there is reason not to be too worried about inflation. Core inflation, excluding food and fuel, normally proceeds in line with the median — the level of inflation for whichever component happens to be in the middle. That relationship has broken down, and the median continues to give comfort:\n\nAt the very least, this is a sign that something unusual is afoot. However, Edwards also cites more disquieting data for “cyclical” inflation that show, again, how behavior in this cycle is different from those that precede it. If we split “core” inflation into cyclical and non-cyclical elements, a normal recession leads to sharp falls in the cyclical measure. This recession has led to no decline at all.\n\nIf the economic cycle isn’t pushing inflation down, there is no need for monetary easing, which indeed could drive prices up. That is concerning.\nThen there is the issue of what time period people have in mind when they say that inflation will be “transitory.” The base effects caused by last year’s collapse and subsequent rally in commodity prices won’t correct until next year. This chart is from Stonex Group Inc.’s Vincent Deluard, and shows the year-on-year inflation in gasoline and broader commodities if prices just stay where they are:\nQueer as Folk\nWhat are people going to do? Economics isn’t like the physical sciences. Its laws must be refracted through numerous individual human decisions. The pandemic, and the lightning-quick recession and recovery, may have changed psychology and thus economic responses, but we don’t know yet.\nOne critical question concerns consumers. They are sitting on lots of cash. Are they going to spend it? If they do, that will be good for growth, but will tend to confirm the warnings of inflationistas. If they don’t, then the U.S. and Europe could find their economies growing ever more constipated, like Japan’s.\nGeorge Saravelos of Deutsche Bank drew this chart from the latest University of Michigan survey of consumers. One question is whether they think it’s a good or a bad time to buy a large household item. Generally, if you think there’s inflation coming, you want to buy now. If you think we’re mired in deflation, you want to defer. And stunningly, even though headline inflation is the worst in three decades, fewer people want to buy now than at any time since the survey started, five decades ago. Even more than at the worst of the global financial crisis, U.S. consumers on this evidence appear to be braced for deflation.\n\nSuch behavior can easily be a self-fulfilling prophecy. And the experience of past pandemics is that people are noticeably more conservative in spending habits for years afterwards. Maybe that will hold true.\nThat leads to another critical question. Will workers push for higher wages? Again, the evidence of past pandemics is that they do — and after many years of stagnant wage growth across the West, there would be much justification for doing so. Two good measures of workers’ confidence suggest unequivocally that employees are behaving as though they hold all the cards, even though unemployment is staying disappointingly high. The National Federation of Independent Business’ index of employers finding jobs hard to fill hit an all-time high in May, and barely declined in June. Meanwhile the quit rate, the proportion of people voluntarily leaving their job without another to go to, reached the highest in its 20-year history. It dropped last month, though is still at a level never seen before this year. The measures suggest that workers really are going to push for higher wages — which would be good for social cohesion, and not for inflation:\n\nWill this happen? Again, it will depend on millions of personal decisions. Butsome fascinating research from the Becker Friedman Institute for Economicsat the University of Chicago suggests that working from home is going to last, and is giving people a stronger incentive to play tough. In a wide survey, they found 6% of workers would quit instantly if their employers said they had to be back in the office five days per week next month:\n\nEmployees are still hoping to work from home 2.35 days per week once the pandemic is over. This is coming down, but is still far in excess of employers’ plans to permit 1.2 days per week.\n\nThe latest initial jobless claims numbers, produced weekly and very noisy, showed a surprising increase in the number of people signing on. It’s a strange labor market, to say the least; the pandemic, and working from home, may yet prove to have changed preferences profoundly.\nDelta Blues\nThe delta variant should worry all of us. But how much should it affect the economy or financial markets? Probably not that much, though a lot depends on how optimistic your assumptions were.\nIt’s clear that the variant is very infectious. In the U.K., the developed country where delta first made landfall, this wave has caused as many infections as the one that preceded it. The critical difference is that it has claimed far fewer lives. This chart, from the great newsletter produced by Whitney Tilson of Empire Financial Research, shows that vaccinations have severed the link between infections and deaths:\n\nHowever, this doesn’t mean that delta has been costless. U.K. deaths are increasing fast, looked at on a log scale. With an unvaccinated population to feed on, there is every reason to assume that delta would have been more lethal than earlier waves:\n\nThankfully, the U.K. is widely vaccinated, while most of continental Europe has similar levels. Thus, even as delta leads to rising infections, the return to something like normality continues. As this chart from Mitsubishi UFJ Finance Group Inc. shows, restrictions have been largely lifted across Europe and even, controversially, in the U.K.\n\nMore importantly, actual mobility is also back to something close to normal (although it has declined in the U.K.):\n\nDelta, on this basis, should lead investors to trim their forecasts at the margin. It doesn’t appear capable of driving a fresh downturn on its own. The same isn’t true of many emerging markets.\nFor investors, the imponderable is what to do about the U.S., where vaccination has become a political issue. This chart from Tilson shows how vaccination rates vary with states’ political allegiance:\n\nBilal Hafeez of Macro Hive offers a similar graphic, this time with vaccination rates on one axis and test positivity rates on the other. Vaccinations mean fewer infections, and in the current American political reality this means fewer infections in blue states, and more in red states:\n\nThere are plenty of American states, then, which have a big enough unvaccinated population for delta to have a serious medical impact. The following chart, from Oliver Brennan of TS Lombard of London, maps vaccination rates against current increases in infections:\n\nArkansas gives cause for great human concern. But to be cold-blooded about this, most of the states at the right of the chart are relatively small. And what matters for economic growth isn’t the death toll or hospitalizations but the impact on economic behavior. Brennan suggests that red states, where risk is greatest, won’t do anything to impede activity. Thus the economic impact should be more limited. Meanwhile, the biggest blue states tend to be highly vaccinated and already economically open. This is activity data for California, Texas and New York:\n\nBrennan’s assessment is as follows:\n\nThe economic impact will take place when (a) a large share of the US economy is affected by rising cases and (b) policymakers’ response is to tighten restrictions and lockdowns. And, for US states, the latter has become a lightning rod of the culture war. The key point here is that (a) it is mostly red states currently suffering resurgent waves and (b) it is unlikely that a red state will enter another lockdown. So, while it is right to worry about Florida and other states where cases are exploding, for our investment process we should focus on California, Texas and New York – three states that, combined, make up one-third of US economic activity. Since Texas is a red state, we do not expect it to reimpose any type of restrictions; California and New York both have more than 50% of their adult population fully vaccinated which means the delta wave should not be critical.\n\nThis doesn’t mean we don’t need to worry. If delta gets a foothold in a lightly vaccinated state, as it has in the U.K., economic activity will decline without formal lockdowns. Even Texans would be more careful. So far, the U.K. resurgence has had only a muted effect. If that pattern is repeated in the U.S., then delta could affect the second derivative (slowing growth). It’s hard to see it leading to an outright decline, so the risk of another lightning-quick recession is minimal.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145867113,"gmtCreate":1626218170132,"gmtModify":1631886472293,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment&nbsp;","listText":"Comment&nbsp;","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145867113","repostId":"2151560584","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2151560584","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Reuters.com brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1626207238,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2151560584?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 04:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 and Nasdaq end down after hitting record highs","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151560584","media":"Reuters","summary":"JPMorgan drops amid low interest rates\nU.S. consumer prices surge in June\nBoeing slips on new produc","content":"<ul>\n <li>JPMorgan drops amid low interest rates</li>\n <li>U.S. consumer prices surge in June</li>\n <li>Boeing slips on new production problems for 787 Dreamliners</li>\n <li>Indexes: Dow -0.31%, S&amp;P 500 -0.35%, Nasdaq -0.38%</li>\n</ul>\n<p>(Updates following end of session)</p>\n<p>July 13 (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower on Tuesday after hitting record highs earlier in the session, with investors digesting a jump in consumer prices in June and earnings from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs that kicked off the quarterly reporting season.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq reached fresh record highs but quickly fell into negative territory after an auction of 30-year Treasuries showed less demand than some investors expected and pushed yields higher.</p>\n<p>Data indicated U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in 13 years last month, while so-called core consumer prices surged 4.5% year over year, the largest rise since November 1991.</p>\n<p>Economists viewed the price surge, driven by travel-rated services and used automobiles, as mostly temporary, aligning with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's long-standing views.</p>\n<p>\"Any time you get an uptick in interest rates the stock market is going to get nervous, especially on a day like today,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 growth index dipped 0.05%, while the value index fell 0.70%.</p>\n<p>\"With growth outperforming value, the takeaway is clearly that inflation from a market perspective is not a real threat in the long term,\" said Keith Buchanan, a portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments in Atlanta, Georgia.</p>\n<p>Ten of the 11 major S&amp;P 500 sector indexes ended lower, with real estate , consumer discretionary and financials each down more than 1%.</p>\n<p>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co stock fell 1.5% after the company reported blockbuster quarterly profit growth but warned that the sunny outlook would not make for blockbuster revenues in the short term due to low interest rates.</p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs Group Inc dipped 1.2% after its quarterly earnings exceeded forecasts.</p>\n<p>Citigroup , Wells Fargo &amp; Co and Bank of America were due to report their quarterly results early on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>PepsiCo Inc gained 2.3% after raising its full-year earnings forecast, betting on accelerating demand as COVID-19 restrictions continue to ease.</p>\n<p>June-quarter earnings per share for S&amp;P 500 companies are expected to rise 66%, according to Refinitiv data, with investors questioning how long Wall Street's rally would last after a 16% rise in the benchmark index so far this year.</p>\n<p>All eyes now turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday for his comments about rising price pressures and monetary support going forward.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.31% to end at 34,888.79 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.35% to 4,369.21.</p>\n<p>The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.38% to 14,677.65.</p>\n<p>Conagra Brands Inc dropped 5.4% after the packaged foods company warned that higher raw material and ingredient costs would take a bigger bite out of its profit this year than previously estimated.</p>\n<p>Boeing Co fell 4.2% after the Federal Aviation Administration said late on Monday some undelivered 787 Dreamliners have a new manufacturing quality issue.</p>\n<p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.06-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 39 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 61 new highs and 73 new lows.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.5 billion shares, compared with the 10.5 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>(Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 and Nasdaq end down after hitting record highs</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 and Nasdaq end down after hitting record highs\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-14 04:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<ul>\n <li>JPMorgan drops amid low interest rates</li>\n <li>U.S. consumer prices surge in June</li>\n <li>Boeing slips on new production problems for 787 Dreamliners</li>\n <li>Indexes: Dow -0.31%, S&amp;P 500 -0.35%, Nasdaq -0.38%</li>\n</ul>\n<p>(Updates following end of session)</p>\n<p>July 13 (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower on Tuesday after hitting record highs earlier in the session, with investors digesting a jump in consumer prices in June and earnings from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs that kicked off the quarterly reporting season.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq reached fresh record highs but quickly fell into negative territory after an auction of 30-year Treasuries showed less demand than some investors expected and pushed yields higher.</p>\n<p>Data indicated U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in 13 years last month, while so-called core consumer prices surged 4.5% year over year, the largest rise since November 1991.</p>\n<p>Economists viewed the price surge, driven by travel-rated services and used automobiles, as mostly temporary, aligning with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's long-standing views.</p>\n<p>\"Any time you get an uptick in interest rates the stock market is going to get nervous, especially on a day like today,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 growth index dipped 0.05%, while the value index fell 0.70%.</p>\n<p>\"With growth outperforming value, the takeaway is clearly that inflation from a market perspective is not a real threat in the long term,\" said Keith Buchanan, a portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments in Atlanta, Georgia.</p>\n<p>Ten of the 11 major S&amp;P 500 sector indexes ended lower, with real estate , consumer discretionary and financials each down more than 1%.</p>\n<p>JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co stock fell 1.5% after the company reported blockbuster quarterly profit growth but warned that the sunny outlook would not make for blockbuster revenues in the short term due to low interest rates.</p>\n<p>Goldman Sachs Group Inc dipped 1.2% after its quarterly earnings exceeded forecasts.</p>\n<p>Citigroup , Wells Fargo &amp; Co and Bank of America were due to report their quarterly results early on Wednesday.</p>\n<p>PepsiCo Inc gained 2.3% after raising its full-year earnings forecast, betting on accelerating demand as COVID-19 restrictions continue to ease.</p>\n<p>June-quarter earnings per share for S&amp;P 500 companies are expected to rise 66%, according to Refinitiv data, with investors questioning how long Wall Street's rally would last after a 16% rise in the benchmark index so far this year.</p>\n<p>All eyes now turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday for his comments about rising price pressures and monetary support going forward.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.31% to end at 34,888.79 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.35% to 4,369.21.</p>\n<p>The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.38% to 14,677.65.</p>\n<p>Conagra Brands Inc dropped 5.4% after the packaged foods company warned that higher raw material and ingredient costs would take a bigger bite out of its profit this year than previously estimated.</p>\n<p>Boeing Co fell 4.2% after the Federal Aviation Administration said late on Monday some undelivered 787 Dreamliners have a new manufacturing quality issue.</p>\n<p>Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.06-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 39 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 61 new highs and 73 new lows.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.5 billion shares, compared with the 10.5 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.</p>\n<p>(Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","NDAQ":"纳斯达克OMX交易所","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","OEX":"标普100","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151560584","content_text":"JPMorgan drops amid low interest rates\nU.S. consumer prices surge in June\nBoeing slips on new production problems for 787 Dreamliners\nIndexes: Dow -0.31%, S&P 500 -0.35%, Nasdaq -0.38%\n\n(Updates following end of session)\nJuly 13 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended lower on Tuesday after hitting record highs earlier in the session, with investors digesting a jump in consumer prices in June and earnings from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs that kicked off the quarterly reporting season.\nThe S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached fresh record highs but quickly fell into negative territory after an auction of 30-year Treasuries showed less demand than some investors expected and pushed yields higher.\nData indicated U.S. consumer prices rose by the most in 13 years last month, while so-called core consumer prices surged 4.5% year over year, the largest rise since November 1991.\nEconomists viewed the price surge, driven by travel-rated services and used automobiles, as mostly temporary, aligning with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's long-standing views.\n\"Any time you get an uptick in interest rates the stock market is going to get nervous, especially on a day like today,\" said Joe Saluzzi, co-manager of trading at Themis Trading in Chatham, New Jersey.\nThe S&P 500 growth index dipped 0.05%, while the value index fell 0.70%.\n\"With growth outperforming value, the takeaway is clearly that inflation from a market perspective is not a real threat in the long term,\" said Keith Buchanan, a portfolio manager at GLOBALT Investments in Atlanta, Georgia.\nTen of the 11 major S&P 500 sector indexes ended lower, with real estate , consumer discretionary and financials each down more than 1%.\nJPMorgan Chase & Co stock fell 1.5% after the company reported blockbuster quarterly profit growth but warned that the sunny outlook would not make for blockbuster revenues in the short term due to low interest rates.\nGoldman Sachs Group Inc dipped 1.2% after its quarterly earnings exceeded forecasts.\nCitigroup , Wells Fargo & Co and Bank of America were due to report their quarterly results early on Wednesday.\nPepsiCo Inc gained 2.3% after raising its full-year earnings forecast, betting on accelerating demand as COVID-19 restrictions continue to ease.\nJune-quarter earnings per share for S&P 500 companies are expected to rise 66%, according to Refinitiv data, with investors questioning how long Wall Street's rally would last after a 16% rise in the benchmark index so far this year.\nAll eyes now turn to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's congressional testimony on Wednesday and Thursday for his comments about rising price pressures and monetary support going forward.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.31% to end at 34,888.79 points, while the S&P 500 lost 0.35% to 4,369.21.\nThe Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.38% to 14,677.65.\nConagra Brands Inc dropped 5.4% after the packaged foods company warned that higher raw material and ingredient costs would take a bigger bite out of its profit this year than previously estimated.\nBoeing Co fell 4.2% after the Federal Aviation Administration said late on Monday some undelivered 787 Dreamliners have a new manufacturing quality issue.\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.85-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 3.06-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 39 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 61 new highs and 73 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 9.5 billion shares, compared with the 10.5 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.\n(Additional reporting by Devik Jain and Shreyashi Sanyal in Bengaluru; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"MNQmain":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"IVV":0.9,"NDAQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"QID":0.9,"QLD":0.9,"QQQ":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"UPRO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143278912,"gmtCreate":1625798389936,"gmtModify":1631886472326,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143278912","repostId":"1195657546","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195657546","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625785913,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1195657546?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 07:11","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Levi Strauss, General Motors, Accolade and more","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195657546","media":"CNBC","summary":"Check out the companies making headlines after the bell Thursday:\nLevi Strauss— Shares of Levi Strau","content":"<div>\n<p>Check out the companies making headlines after the bell Thursday:\nLevi Strauss— Shares of Levi Strauss added 3.2% after the retailer crushed Wall Street expectations in itsfiscal second-quarter ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-after-hours-levi-strauss-gm-accolade.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Levi Strauss, General Motors, Accolade and more</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks making the biggest moves after hours: Levi Strauss, General Motors, Accolade and more\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-09 07:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-after-hours-levi-strauss-gm-accolade.html><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Check out the companies making headlines after the bell Thursday:\nLevi Strauss— Shares of Levi Strauss added 3.2% after the retailer crushed Wall Street expectations in itsfiscal second-quarter ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-after-hours-levi-strauss-gm-accolade.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BGC":"BGC GROUP","GM":"通用汽车","ACCD":"Accolade, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/08/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-after-hours-levi-strauss-gm-accolade.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1195657546","content_text":"Check out the companies making headlines after the bell Thursday:\nLevi Strauss— Shares of Levi Strauss added 3.2% after the retailer crushed Wall Street expectations in itsfiscal second-quarter results. Levi reported adjusted earnings of 23 cents per share on revenue of $1.28 billion. Analysts expected earnings of 9 cents per share on revenue of $1.21 billion, according to Refinitiv.\nGeneral Motors— General Motors shares gained 1.3% after Wedbush initiated coverage of the stock with an outperform rating and $85 price target. That target implies an upside of more than 51% from Thursday's close. \"CEO Mary Barra along with other key executives has led the legacy auto company back to the top of the auto industry in the United States,\" Wedbush's Dan Ives said in a note.\nPriceSmart— Shares of PriceSmart rose 2.4% in thin trading on the back of the warehouse club operator’s third-quarter earnings report. PriceSmart posted earnings of 73 cents per share, compared with a FactSet estimate of 65 cents per share expectation.\nAccolade— Accolade shares added 1.2% in low-volume trading following after the company released its latest quarterly numbers. The health-care technology company reported revenue of of $59.5 million versus analysts’ $55.8 million estimate, according to FactSet. Accolade also posted a smaller-than-expected EBITDA loss.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ACCD":0.9,"BGC":0.9,"GM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151587260,"gmtCreate":1625098695950,"gmtModify":1631891311040,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151587260","repostId":"1178516480","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178516480","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625094708,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1178516480?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 07:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178516480","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as inves","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.</p>\n<p>In the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.</p>\n<p>All three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&amp;P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&amp;P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.</p>\n<p>“It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&amp;P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”</p>\n<p>For the month, the bellwether S&amp;P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.</p>\n<p>This month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.</p>\n<p>“Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”</p>\n<p>“(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.</p>\n<p>“Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”</p>\n<p>(Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b82b4dfdc765d913811f9d8572e60f6\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”</p>\n<p>The private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.</p>\n<p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&amp;P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.</p>\n<p>Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.</p>\n<p>Boeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.</p>\n<p>Walmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.</p>\n<p>Micron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.</p>\n<p>Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.</p>\n<p>Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-01 07:11 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178516480","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.\nIn the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.\nAll three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.\n“It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”\nFor the month, the bellwether S&P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.\nThis month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.\n“Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”\n“(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.\n“Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”\n(Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )\n“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”\nThe private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.\nAmong the 11 major sectors in the S&P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.\nBoeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.\nWalmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.\nMicron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124299522,"gmtCreate":1624765490866,"gmtModify":1631891311046,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124299522","repostId":"1172710941","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1172710941","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624753126,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1172710941?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 08:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop Joined the Russell 1000. The Move Might Hurt the Stock.","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172710941","media":"Barrons","summary":"The Reddit army has succeeded in launching GameStop to a new stratosphere—but it could actually hurt the stock in the short-term.The videogame retailer officially made it into the Russell 1000 index,FTSE Russell announced on Saturday. The Russell 1000 tracks large-capitalization stocks—and in order to be included in the latest index reconstitution, stocks had to have market caps of at least $7.3 billion on May 7.As one of the stocks favored by retail traders this year, GameStop  met that thresho","content":"<p>The Reddit army has succeeded in launching&nbsp;GameStop&nbsp;to a new stratosphere—but it could actually hurt the stock in the short-term.</p>\n<p>The videogame retailer officially made it into the&nbsp;Russell 1000 index,FTSE Russell announced on Saturday. The Russell 1000 tracks large-capitalization stocks—and in order to be included in the latest index reconstitution, stocks had to have market caps of at least $7.3 billion on May 7.</p>\n<p>As one of the&nbsp;stocks favored by retail traders this year, GameStop (ticker: GME) met that threshold because it had an $11.2 billion market cap by the deadline, while&nbsp;AMC Entertainment(AMC) didn’t. That said, AMC has rocketed higher since May 7, multiplying by more than five times and surpassing GameStop’s market value—hitting a recent $27 billion compared to GameStop’s $15 billion.</p>\n<p>It may seem counterintuitive, but the Russell 1000 “promotion” may actually be bad for GameStop’s stock,as&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;explained earlier this month.Funds that track the small-capRussell 2000will have to sell GameStop shares on June 28, and funds that track the Russell 1000 will have to buy them. Three times as much money is invested in funds that track the Russell 1000, but GameStop’s overall weight in that index will be much lower than it has been in the Russell 2000. In the Russell 2000, GameStop made up about half a percentage point of the index, while it will be less than 0.1% of the Russell 1000. GameStop will look tiny next to behemoths like&nbsp;Apple(AAPL).</p>\n<p>Experts like Jefferies strategist Steven DeSanctis expect that there will be net selling in GameStop of about 5 million shares, or about half of the stock’s recent average daily volume, after the rebalancing.</p>\n<p>Meanwhile, AMC will be the largest member of the Russell 2000 by far—more than three times as large as its nearest competitor as of last week. See the full post-rebalancing list of Russell 1000 stocks&nbsp;<a href=\"https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/ru1000_membershiplist_20210628.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>&nbsp;and Russell 2000 stocks&nbsp;<a href=\"https://content.ftserussell.com/sites/default/files/ru2000_membershiplist_20210628.pdf\" target=\"_blank\">here</a>.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop Joined the Russell 1000. The Move Might Hurt the Stock.</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop Joined the Russell 1000. The Move Might Hurt the Stock.\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-27 08:18 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-stock-russell-1000-51624729113?mod=hp_LATEST><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Reddit army has succeeded in launching GameStop to a new stratosphere—but it could actually hurt the stock in the short-term.\nThe videogame retailer officially made it into the Russell 1000 index,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-stock-russell-1000-51624729113?mod=hp_LATEST\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-stock-russell-1000-51624729113?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172710941","content_text":"The Reddit army has succeeded in launching GameStop to a new stratosphere—but it could actually hurt the stock in the short-term.\nThe videogame retailer officially made it into the Russell 1000 index,FTSE Russell announced on Saturday. The Russell 1000 tracks large-capitalization stocks—and in order to be included in the latest index reconstitution, stocks had to have market caps of at least $7.3 billion on May 7.\nAs one of the stocks favored by retail traders this year, GameStop (ticker: GME) met that threshold because it had an $11.2 billion market cap by the deadline, while AMC Entertainment(AMC) didn’t. That said, AMC has rocketed higher since May 7, multiplying by more than five times and surpassing GameStop’s market value—hitting a recent $27 billion compared to GameStop’s $15 billion.\nIt may seem counterintuitive, but the Russell 1000 “promotion” may actually be bad for GameStop’s stock,as Barron’s explained earlier this month.Funds that track the small-capRussell 2000will have to sell GameStop shares on June 28, and funds that track the Russell 1000 will have to buy them. Three times as much money is invested in funds that track the Russell 1000, but GameStop’s overall weight in that index will be much lower than it has been in the Russell 2000. In the Russell 2000, GameStop made up about half a percentage point of the index, while it will be less than 0.1% of the Russell 1000. GameStop will look tiny next to behemoths like Apple(AAPL).\nExperts like Jefferies strategist Steven DeSanctis expect that there will be net selling in GameStop of about 5 million shares, or about half of the stock’s recent average daily volume, after the rebalancing.\nMeanwhile, AMC will be the largest member of the Russell 2000 by far—more than three times as large as its nearest competitor as of last week. See the full post-rebalancing list of Russell 1000 stocks here and Russell 2000 stocks here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126617333,"gmtCreate":1624559516122,"gmtModify":1631891311047,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126617333","repostId":"1198422658","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177800781,"gmtCreate":1627191608543,"gmtModify":1631886472259,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177800781","repostId":"1115106146","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148964098,"gmtCreate":1625918290214,"gmtModify":1631886472306,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148964098","repostId":"1159307278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159307278","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625873648,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1159307278?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 07:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159307278","media":"Barrons","summary":"Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling s","content":"<p>Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the&nbsp;fledgling space tourism industry.</p>\n<p>So long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.</p>\n<p>Here’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.</p>\n<p><b>When Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?</b></p>\n<p>The Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the&nbsp;company’s website&nbsp;and on&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;below.</p>\n<p><b>How High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?</b></p>\n<p>Galactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.</p>\n<p>Blue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.</p>\n<p><b>How Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?</b></p>\n<p>Nothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.</p>\n<p>Still, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes&nbsp;it’s possible&nbsp;that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.</p>\n<p>A move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for&nbsp;$28 million.</p>\n<p>A ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run&nbsp;about $250,000.</p>\n<p><b>What Does the Flight Mean for Investors?</b></p>\n<p>The continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.</p>\n<p>Once fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.</p>\n<p>Analysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.</p>\n<p>The flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.</p>\n<p><b>How Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?</b></p>\n<p>A successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4113576958bcf043e56e1c92578d0cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p>\n<p>The stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.</p>\n<p>Investors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.</p>\n<p>Analysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stocks is about 55%.</p>\n<p>Shares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.</p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-10 07:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4><strong>Barrons</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling space tourism industry.\nSo long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159307278","content_text":"Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling space tourism industry.\nSo long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.\nHere’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.\nWhen Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?\nThe Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the company’s website and on Barron’s below.\nHow High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?\nGalactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.\nBlue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.\nHow Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?\nNothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.\nStill, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes it’s possible that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.\nA move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for $28 million.\nA ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run about $250,000.\nWhat Does the Flight Mean for Investors?\nThe continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.\nOnce fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.\nAnalysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.\nThe flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.\nHow Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?\nA successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.\n\nThe stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.\nInvestors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.\nAnalysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for S&P 500 stocks is about 55%.\nShares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":868,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170076201,"gmtCreate":1626397714703,"gmtModify":1631886472282,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170076201","repostId":"1143835393","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":667,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166347366,"gmtCreate":1623993942955,"gmtModify":1631891311069,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment n like","listText":"Comment n like","text":"Comment n like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166347366","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175693382?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>\n <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>\n <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>\n <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>The Technical Thesis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p>\n<p>Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p>\n<p>One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p>\n<p>Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p>\n<p>Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p>\n<p>BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p>\n<p><b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p>\n<p>Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166342598,"gmtCreate":1623993853014,"gmtModify":1631891311069,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166342598","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175693382?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>\n <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>\n <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>\n <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>The Technical Thesis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p>\n<p>Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p>\n<p>One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p>\n<p>Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p>\n<p>Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p>\n<p>BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p>\n<p><b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p>\n<p>Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143278744,"gmtCreate":1625798421688,"gmtModify":1631886472316,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143278744","repostId":"2149328127","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2149328127","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625797306,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/2149328127?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-09 10:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why AMC Stock Continued to Drop Today","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149328127","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Retail traders seem to be less and less enamored with AMC.","content":"<h2>What happened</h2>\n<p>Movie theater operator <b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b> (NYSE:AMC) seems to be losing its luster with the retail trader crowd that now makes up 80% of the company's shareholder base. AMC stock is down 30% in the past two weeks, and dropped as much as 14% Thursday morning. AMC shares have recovered some, but remained down 6.2% as of 10:05 a.m. EDT.</p>\n<h2>So what</h2>\n<p>Some of the negative sentiment came earlier this week when AMC CEO Adam Aron said he was tabling a shareholder vote on a proposal he supported to add another $25 million shares to the company's share count. Aron wanted to sell more stock to raise additional capital even after the company has raised almost $3 billion in new equity and debt over approximately the last year.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b2920e6f52019423eb48e9d9b895e32\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Image source: Getty Images.</p>\n<p>Shareholders wanting a turnaround in the business may also be reacting to news that more movies will be released onto streaming television with shorter durations playing solely in theaters. Beginning in 2022 <b>Comcast</b>'s (NASDAQ:CMCSA) Universal Pictures will be moving its releases onto its parent company's Peacock streaming service no later than four months after theater releases, according to Reuters.</p>\n<h2>Now what</h2>\n<p>Investors looking past the meme stock frenzy that has encompassed AMC shares may be realizing that the business itself still needs to recover. And news that potential hit movies will be available in homes to stream sooner could be damaging to the theater business.</p>\n<p>Even with the stock's recent decline, AMC shares are up more than 1,900% year to date. It will take much success in the underlying business to catch up to the current valuation. Some traders appear to be noticing and are taking profits.</p>","source":"fool_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why AMC Stock Continued to Drop Today</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy AMC Stock Continued to Drop Today\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-09 10:21 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/08/why-amc-stock-continued-to-drop-today/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>What happened\nMovie theater operator AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC) seems to be losing its luster with the retail trader crowd that now makes up 80% of the company's shareholder base. AMC stock...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/08/why-amc-stock-continued-to-drop-today/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/08/why-amc-stock-continued-to-drop-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149328127","content_text":"What happened\nMovie theater operator AMC Entertainment Holdings (NYSE:AMC) seems to be losing its luster with the retail trader crowd that now makes up 80% of the company's shareholder base. AMC stock is down 30% in the past two weeks, and dropped as much as 14% Thursday morning. AMC shares have recovered some, but remained down 6.2% as of 10:05 a.m. EDT.\nSo what\nSome of the negative sentiment came earlier this week when AMC CEO Adam Aron said he was tabling a shareholder vote on a proposal he supported to add another $25 million shares to the company's share count. Aron wanted to sell more stock to raise additional capital even after the company has raised almost $3 billion in new equity and debt over approximately the last year.Image source: Getty Images.\nShareholders wanting a turnaround in the business may also be reacting to news that more movies will be released onto streaming television with shorter durations playing solely in theaters. Beginning in 2022 Comcast's (NASDAQ:CMCSA) Universal Pictures will be moving its releases onto its parent company's Peacock streaming service no later than four months after theater releases, according to Reuters.\nNow what\nInvestors looking past the meme stock frenzy that has encompassed AMC shares may be realizing that the business itself still needs to recover. And news that potential hit movies will be available in homes to stream sooner could be damaging to the theater business.\nEven with the stock's recent decline, AMC shares are up more than 1,900% year to date. It will take much success in the underlying business to catch up to the current valuation. Some traders appear to be noticing and are taking profits.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151568332,"gmtCreate":1625098835126,"gmtModify":1631886472340,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151568332","repostId":"1126325248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126325248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625097519,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1126325248?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 07:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron sales beat expectations as chip supplies remain tight, prices high","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126325248","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) -Micron Technology Inc on Wednesday beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and fo","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Micron Technology Inc on Wednesday beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and forecast fourth-quarter revenue above expectations, as tight supplies of memory chips and continued strong demand kept prices high.</p>\n<p>The chipmaker forecast current-quarter revenue of $8.2 billion, plus or minus $200 million, while analysts on average were expecting $7.87 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p>\n<p>Micron makes NAND memory chips that serve the data storage market and DRAM memory chips that are used in data centers, smartphones and other computing devices. It has benefited from the pandemic-induced global shift toward remote work as demand for laptops and other electronic devices soared.</p>\n<p>In prepared remarks, Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said the company expects industry-wide supplies of both kinds of chips to remain tight until the end of next year, keeping prices high.</p>\n<p>“We believe Micron’s strong financial performance will continue cross-cycle, and over the long term, our revenue growth will outperform the broader semiconductor industry,” Mehrotra said.</p>\n<p>The company’s revenue for the third quarter ended June 3 rose 36% to $7.42 billion, beating estimates of $7.24 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p>\n<p>Excluding items, the company earned $1.88 per share in the quarter, above estimates of $1.72.</p>\n<p>The company also said it will sell a plant in Lehi, Utah, to Texas Instruments Inc. Micron said it expects to get about $1.5 billion for the plant, $900 million of which will be in cash and $600 million of which will be in the value of tools it can either sell to outsiders or move to its other factories. Micron had said it would sell the Utah facility, which it shared with Intel Corp, under a joint venture formed nearly a decade ago, as part of a broader technology strategy shifthere.</p>\n<p>The company took an impairment charge of $435 million because the $900 million in cash was below the book value of the factory, but Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana told Reuters in an interview that the factory was on track to generate almost $500 million in losses this year because it was underutilized.</p>\n<p>Micron also said that its capital expenditures for fiscal 2021 would rise above $9.5 billion, partly driven by pre-payments as it starts to acquire extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines from Dutch maker ASML Holding NV. The machines are necessary for making the most cutting-edge chips but can cost more than $100 million each.</p>\n<p>The company stretched out its use of cheaper chipmaker techniques as long as it could but will start using the EUV machines in production in 2024, officials said.</p>\n<p>“EUV is a very big and important tool in the manufacturing line. And EUV itself is a tool that has a long lead time for manufacturing from ASML. The orders have to be placed just about now,” Sadana said.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron sales beat expectations as chip supplies remain tight, prices high</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron sales beat expectations as chip supplies remain tight, prices high\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-01 07:58 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.reuters.com/article/micron-tech-results/update-3-micron-sales-beat-expectations-as-chip-supplies-remain-tight-prices-high-idUSL3N2OC4I1><strong>Reuters</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Reuters) -Micron Technology Inc on Wednesday beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and forecast fourth-quarter revenue above expectations, as tight supplies of memory chips and continued ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/micron-tech-results/update-3-micron-sales-beat-expectations-as-chip-supplies-remain-tight-prices-high-idUSL3N2OC4I1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/micron-tech-results/update-3-micron-sales-beat-expectations-as-chip-supplies-remain-tight-prices-high-idUSL3N2OC4I1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126325248","content_text":"(Reuters) -Micron Technology Inc on Wednesday beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and forecast fourth-quarter revenue above expectations, as tight supplies of memory chips and continued strong demand kept prices high.\nThe chipmaker forecast current-quarter revenue of $8.2 billion, plus or minus $200 million, while analysts on average were expecting $7.87 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nMicron makes NAND memory chips that serve the data storage market and DRAM memory chips that are used in data centers, smartphones and other computing devices. It has benefited from the pandemic-induced global shift toward remote work as demand for laptops and other electronic devices soared.\nIn prepared remarks, Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said the company expects industry-wide supplies of both kinds of chips to remain tight until the end of next year, keeping prices high.\n“We believe Micron’s strong financial performance will continue cross-cycle, and over the long term, our revenue growth will outperform the broader semiconductor industry,” Mehrotra said.\nThe company’s revenue for the third quarter ended June 3 rose 36% to $7.42 billion, beating estimates of $7.24 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nExcluding items, the company earned $1.88 per share in the quarter, above estimates of $1.72.\nThe company also said it will sell a plant in Lehi, Utah, to Texas Instruments Inc. Micron said it expects to get about $1.5 billion for the plant, $900 million of which will be in cash and $600 million of which will be in the value of tools it can either sell to outsiders or move to its other factories. Micron had said it would sell the Utah facility, which it shared with Intel Corp, under a joint venture formed nearly a decade ago, as part of a broader technology strategy shifthere.\nThe company took an impairment charge of $435 million because the $900 million in cash was below the book value of the factory, but Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana told Reuters in an interview that the factory was on track to generate almost $500 million in losses this year because it was underutilized.\nMicron also said that its capital expenditures for fiscal 2021 would rise above $9.5 billion, partly driven by pre-payments as it starts to acquire extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines from Dutch maker ASML Holding NV. The machines are necessary for making the most cutting-edge chips but can cost more than $100 million each.\nThe company stretched out its use of cheaper chipmaker techniques as long as it could but will start using the EUV machines in production in 2024, officials said.\n“EUV is a very big and important tool in the manufacturing line. And EUV itself is a tool that has a long lead time for manufacturing from ASML. The orders have to be placed just about now,” Sadana said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129871096,"gmtCreate":1624369848515,"gmtModify":1631891311050,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129871096","repostId":"1177499959","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177499959","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624344919,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1177499959?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-22 14:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177499959","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" spa","content":"<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.</p>\n<p>Fast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"Tapering<i><b>is</b></i>Tightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.</p>\n<p>Elaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-&nbsp; writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"<b>fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"</b></p>\n<p>Or to paraphrase Lester Burnham,<b>\"it's all downhill from here\"...</b>and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"<b><i>the transition is incomplete.\"</i></b></p>\n<p>Highlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:<b>\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.</b>\"</p>\n<p>Furthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d95f296e4d1300cd3c95485a2333d270\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"571\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"</p>\n<blockquote>\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n</blockquote>\n<p>Nevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.</p>\n<p>While real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"<b>this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/670f9e23e34953726583276c32a7b3f9\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"445\"></p>\n<p>That said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.<b>This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.</b>Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.</p>\n<p>Wilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantially<b>before</b>Bernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"<i>perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"</i></p>\n<blockquote>\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n</blockquote>\n<p>The underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.</p>\n<p>Wrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,<b>monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - is</b><b><u>money supply growth</u></b><b>:</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>In a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,</i>\n <i><b>the primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Realizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"&nbsp; He explains:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>When money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>And visually:</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/392b34be32740b00458d59adb2bb80a6\" tg-width=\"852\" tg-height=\"486\"></p>\n<p>But wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).</p>\n<p>Taking Wilson's argument a step further,<b>M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economy</b><b><i>and</i></b><b>markets.</b>On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of February<b>but has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a&nbsp; more \"normal\" level of annual growth</b>— i.e., 7-8%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5f46571e7e27f9c00fed0a2d310a3c\" tg-width=\"610\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>More ominously, this also suggests<b>liquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.</b></p>\n<p>Finally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c77fa806a6775bc562b18346590d26c9\" tg-width=\"613\" tg-height=\"376\"></p>\n<p>Wilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.</p>\n<p>This to Wilson<b>\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"</b>and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).</p>\n<p>Putting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is that<b>the market already knows it.</b>The bad news is that<b>a majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.</b>This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"</p>\n<p>And while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.</p>\n<p>We expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Forget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nForget Everything You Know: Morgan Stanley Reveals The Only Metric That Determines What The Market Will Do Next\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-22 14:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/forget-everything-you-know-morgan-stanley-reveals-only-metric-determines-what-market-will","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177499959","content_text":"Traders of a certain age may recall that back in 2013, around the time the Fed's \"Taper Tantrum\" sparked a surge in yields and led to a risk asset selloff, a big (if entirely artificial) debate emerged within financial media, where the Fed muppets and their media puppets would argue that \"tapering is not tightening\" while anyone with half a brain realized knew that this was total BS.\nFast forward to today when Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson opens up an old wound for clueless Fed apologists, saying in his latest Weekly Warm Up note that \"TaperingisTightening\"... but then adds that contrary to the market's shocked reaction to last week's Fed meeting, tightening actually began months ago.\nElaborating on this point, Wilson - who several months ago turned into Wall Street's most bearish strategist (again)-  writes this morning that while the Fed's pivot to \"begin\" the tightening discussion caught most by surprise, in reality markets began discounting this inevitable process months ago as price action had indicated. It's exactly this discounting of the coming tightening, that is what Michael Wilson's mid-cycle transition is all about, and as the strategist adds, \"fits nicely with our narrative for choppier equity markets and a 10-20% correction for the broader indices this year.\"\nOr to paraphrase Lester Burnham,\"it's all downhill from here\"...and as Wilson predicts, that won't change until M2 growth is done decelerating; or in other words, until the Fed unleashes another liquidity burst into the system \"the transition is incomplete.\"\nHighlights aside, Wilson then elaborates on each point, noting that while last week's Fed meeting brought more uncertainty to markets one thing is becoming more obvious:\"we are on the other side of the mountain with respect to monetary accommodation for this cycle.\"\nFurthermore, having repeatedlywarned that the US is now mid-cycle...\n... Wilson then takes a victory lap writing that what the Fed is doing is \"classic mid cycle transition behavior so investors really shouldn't be too surprised that the Fed would try to begin the long process of tightening.\"\n\n After all, the US economy is booming and expected to grow close to 10 percent this year in nominal terms, a feat last witnessed in 1984. Meanwhile, no matter what one's view is on inflation being transient or not, prices are up significantly and likely higher than what the Fed, or most others were expecting 6 months ago. In other words, the facts and data have changed; therefore, so should Fed policy.\n\nNevertheless, as discussed here extensively, markets reacted as if this was a complete shock with both bonds and stocks trading as if the Fed had hiked rates already (instead of leaving over $2TN in QE still on deck) after the Fed meeting. Starting with bonds, both nominal 10 year yields and breakevens fell significantly. However, breakevens fell more leaving 10 year real rates higher by almost 20 bps Wednesday afternoon.\nWhile real rates did settle back a bit on Thursday and Friday, they have formed what appears to be a very solid base from which they are likely to rise as the economy continues to recover and the Fed appropriately pivots. In Wilson's view, \"this looks very similar to 2013, the year after Peak Fed. Back then, Peak Fed was QE3 which was announced on September 12, 2012. This time Peak Fed was the announcement of Average Inflation Targeting last summer.\"\n\nThat said, there is one notable difference between the taper tantrum and today: in 2013 \"tapering\" QE was a novel concept to markets and it came more abruptly with Bernanke's surprise mention during his congressional testimony on May 22, 2013.This time, the markets understand what tapering is and see its arrival as inevitable as the economy recovers.Therefore, while the path higher for real rates is unlikely to be as dramatic as witnessed in 2013, it is still likely to be higher from here and that is a change that will affect all risk markets, including equities, in Morgan Stanley's view.\nWilson makes one final observation from the chart above, which is how real rates moved substantiallybeforeBernanke's testimony in May 2013, prompting Wilson to notes that \"perhaps it wasn't as much of a surprise as believed, at least to markets. We think it's the same situation today.\"\n\n In our view, the data has been so strong, it would be naive not to think the Fed wasn't moving closer to tapering over the past several months. In fact, the idea that the Fed hasn't been thinking and/or talking about it seems absurd. Surely the market understands this, making the events of the past week not so much of a surprise. It's all part of the mid cycle transition that has been ongoing for months and fits with the choppier price action and unstable market leadership we have been witnessing.\n\nThe underperformance of early cycle stocks is another classic signal the market \"gets it.\" Nevertheless, in talking with clients the past few days, this view is still out of consensus. Most haven't been ready for tighter monetary policy, nor did they think it's something they needed to worry about, until now.\nWrapping up the Fed \"surprise\" part of his note, Wilson writes that contrary to the FOMC shock,monetary tightening actually began months ago if one is looking at the right metric, which to the top Morgan Stanley equity strategist - who emerges as yet another closet Austrian - ismoney supply growth:\n\nIn a world where all of the major developed market central banks are stuck at the zero bound, or lower,\nthe primary metric that determines if monetary policy is getting more or less accommodative is Money Supply Growth.\n\nRealizing that to most Keynesian this will be a controversial statement to say the least, Wilson digs in and says that \"it's absolutely the case and financial markets seem to agree.\"  He explains:\n\nWhen money supply is accelerating, the more speculative / riskier assets tend to outperform and when it's decelerating these assets have more trouble. As noted here several times over the past few months, the Fed's balance sheet (M1) growth peaked in mid February and that coincided with a top in many of the most expensive/speculative stocks in the equity market just like the acceleration in the Fed's balance sheet in the prior 12 months contributed to their spectacular performance. Interestingly, the recently flattening out of the growth in M1 has coincided with more stability in these stocks, although they remain well below prior highs (Exhibit 2).\n\nAnd visually:\n\nBut wait there's more, and also an explanation why the Fed has made it virtually impossible to track the weekly change in M2 (the aggregate is now updated only monthly).\nTaking Wilson's argument a step further,M2 growth might be even more important to monitor than M1 because that's the net liquidity available to the economyandmarkets.On that front, the deceleration also began at the end of Februarybut has not yet flattened out and appears to have much further to fall to a  more \"normal\" level of annual growth— i.e., 7-8%\n\nMore ominously, this also suggestsliquidity is likely to tighten further from here whether the Fed's begins tapering later this year or next.\nFinally, when we look at M2 data on a global basis, we get the same picture.\n\nWilson concludes that even ahead of last week's \"shock\" FOMC, the market had already started to de-rate lower into a mid-cycle transition as Fed balance sheet growth has materially slowed. Meanwhile, M2 is slowing just as rapidly and has further to fall, especially when the Fed begins to taper later this year or early next. Finally, global money supply growth is also slowing from elevated levels and every major region is contributing.\nThis to Wilson\"looks reminiscent of 2014 and 2018 when markets went through a rolling correction of risky assets\"and he thinks 2021 will prove to be similar in that regard with the highest beta regions falling first (Kospi, China, Japan) and ending with the most defensive (US).\nPutting it all together, the MS strategist writes that \"tapering is tightening but the tightening process began with the rate of change in money supply growth. The good news is thatthe market already knows it.The bad news is thata majority of investors seem to be just catching on with the Fed's \"surprise\" announcement this past week.This means asset prices are far from done correcting as witnessed with the more cyclical, reflationary assets taking their turn the past few weeks.\"\nAnd while we completely agree with Wilson's newly discovered Austrian view of markets - funny how on a long enough timeline everyone turns Austrian - the real question is what will catalyze the next M2 boosting cycle, how high will it push stocks, and will the Fed be forced to come out and start buying equities this time after having nationalized the bond market back in 2020.\nWe expect that the answer will be revealed after the next 20% drop at which point all of the Fed's hawkishness will evaporate, and Powell (or his replacement Kashkari) will shift to an uber dovish mode as they prepare to unleash the final and biggest asset bubble of all...","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129847198,"gmtCreate":1624369789614,"gmtModify":1631891311052,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129847198","repostId":"1187133273","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165490554,"gmtCreate":1624154231078,"gmtModify":1631891311056,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165490554","repostId":"1133385197","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133385197","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624151969,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1133385197?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-20 09:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Answering the great inflation question of our time","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133385197","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up","content":"<p>Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.</p>\n<p>Unfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these days—is conjecture. And that’s vexing, not just for the dismal scientists (aka economists), but for all of us, because whether or not prices are really rising, by how much and for how long, has massive implications in our lives. Or as Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, says: “Inflation is one of the mysteries of economic study and thought. A difficult thing to gauge and forecast and get right. That’s why the risks are high.”</p>\n<p>The current debate over inflation really revolves around two questions: First, is this current spate of inflation, just that, a spate—or to use Wall Street’s buzzword of the moment, “transitory,”—or not? (Just to give you an idea of how buzzy, when I Google the word “transitory” the search engine suggests “inflation” after it.) And second, transitory (aka temporary) inflation or not, what does it suggest for the economy and markets?</p>\n<p>Before I get into that, let me lay out what’s going on with prices right now. First, know that inflation,which peaked in 1980 at an annualized rate of 13.55%,has been tame for quite some time, specifically 4% or less for nearly 30 years. Which means that anyone 40 years old or younger has no experience with inflation other than maybe from an Econ 101 textbook. Obviously that could be a problem.</p>\n<p>As an aside I remember President Ford in 1974 trying to jawbone inflation down with his \"Whip Inflation Now\" campaign, which featured“Win” buttons,earringsand evenugly sweaters.None of this worked and it took draconian measures by Fed Chair Paul Volcker (raising rates and targeting money supply,as described by Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, William Poole)to eventually tame inflation and keep it under wraps for all those years.</p>\n<p>Until now perhaps. Last week theLabor Department reported that consumer prices (the CPI, or consumer price index) rose 5% in May,the fastest annual rate in nearly 13 years—which was when the economy was overheating from the housing boom which subsequently went bust and sent the economy off a cliff and into the Great Recession. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 3.8%, the biggest increase since May 1992. (For the record, the likelihood of the economy tanking right now is de minimis.)</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87f75dfcb98fb5a0e7c3f9d3f8d336e2\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Used car and truck prices are a major driver of inflation, climbing 7.3% last month and 29.7% over the past year. New car prices are up too, which have pushed upshares of Ford and GM a remarkable 40% plus this year.Clearly Americans want to buy vehicles to go on vacation and get back to work. And Yahoo Finance’sJanna Herron reportsthat rents are rising at their fastest pace in 15 years.</p>\n<p>To be sure, not all prices are climbing.As Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman points out,prices are not up much at all for health care, education and are basically flat for technology, including computers, smartphones and internet service (an important point which we’ll get back to.)</p>\n<p>But that’s the counterpoint really. Americans are obsessed with cars, housing is critical and many of us are experiencing sticker shock booking travel this summer. Higher prices are front and center. Wall Street too is in a tizzy about inflation, and concerns about it and more importantly Federal Reserve policy in response to inflation (see below), sent stocks lower with the S&amp;P 500 down 1.91% this week, its worst week since February.</p>\n<p>Given this backdrop, the tension (such as it is) was high when the Fed met this week to deliver its forecast and for Chair Jay Powell to answer questions from the media. Or at least so said hedge fund honcho Paul Tudor Jones,who characterized the proceedings on CNBCas “the most important meeting in [Chairman] Jay Powell’s career, certainly the most important Fed meeting of the past four or five years.” Jones was critical of the Fed, which he believes is now stimulating the economy unnecessarily by keeping interest rates low and by buying financial assets. Unnecessarily, Jones says, because the economy is already running hot and needs no support. The Fed (which is in the transitory camp when it comes to inflation) risks overheating the economy by creating runaway inflation, according to PTJ.</p>\n<p>Now I don’t see eye to eye with Jones on this, though I should point out, he's a billionaire from investing in financial markets, and let’s just say I’m not. I should also point out that Jones, 66, is in fact old enough to remember inflation, never mind that as a young man he called the 1987 stock market crash. So we should all ignore Jones at our peril.</p>\n<p>As for what the Fed put forth this past Wednesday, well it wasn’t much, signaling an expectation ofraising interest rates twice by the end of 2023(yes, that is down the road.) And Powell, who’s become much more adept at not rippling the waters these days after some rougher forays earlier in his tenure, didn’t drop any bombshells in the presser.</p>\n<p>Which brings us to the question of why the Federal Reserve isn’t so concerned about inflation and thinks it is mostly—here’s that word again—transitory. To answer that, we need to first address why prices are rising right now, which can be summed up in one very familiar abbreviation: COVID-19. When COVID hit last spring the economy collapsed, which crushed demand in sectors like leisure, travel and retail. Now the economy is roaring back to life and businesses can raise prices, certainly over 2020 levels.</p>\n<p>“We clearly should’ve expected it,” says William Spriggs, chief economist at the AFL-CIO and a professor of economics at Howard University. “You can’t shut down the economy and think you turn on the switch [without some inflation].”</p>\n<p>“We had a pandemic that forced an artificial shutdown of the economy in a way that even the collapse of the financial system and the housing market didn’t, and we had a snapback at a rate we’ve never seen before—not because of the fundamentals driving recovery but because of government,” says Joel Naroff, president and chief economist of Naroff Economics.</p>\n<p>COVID had other secondary effects on the economy though, besides just ultimately producing a snapback. For one thing, the pandemic throttled supply chains, specifically the shipping of parts and components from one part of the globe to another. It also confused managers about how much to produce and therefore how many parts to order.</p>\n<p>A prime example here is what happened to the chip (semiconductor) and auto industrieswhich I wrote about last month.Car makers thought no one would buy vehicles during the pandemic and pared back their orders with chipmakers, (which were having a tough time shipping their chips anyway.) Turned out the car guys were wrong, millions of people wanted cars and trucks, but the automakers didn’t have enough chips for their cars and had to curb production. Fewer vehicles and strong demand led to higher new car prices, which cascaded to used car prices then to car rental rates. Net net, all the friction and slowness of getting things delivered now adds to costs which causes companies to raise prices.</p>\n<p>Another secondary effect of COVID which has been inflationary comes from employment,which I got into a bit last week.We all know millions were thrown out of work by COVID last year, many of whom were backstopped by government payments that could add up to $600 a week (state and federal.) These folks have been none too keen on coming back to work for minimum wage, or $290 a week. So to lure them back employers are having to pay more, which puts more money in people's pockets which allows stores for example to raise prices.</p>\n<p><b>Anti-inflation forces</b></p>\n<p>But here’s the big-time question: If COVID was temporary, and therefore its effects are temporary and inflation is one of its effects then doesn’t it follow, ipso facto, that inflation is (OK I’ll say it again), transitory?</p>\n<p>I say yes, (with a bit of a caveat.) And most economists, like Claudia Sahm, a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute and a former Federal Reserve economist, agree. “‘Transitory’ has become a buzzword,” she says. “It is important to be more concrete about what we mean by that. We’re probably going to see in the next few months inflation numbers that are bigger than average, but as long as they keep stepping down, that’s the sign of it being transitory. If we didn’t see any sign of inflation stepping down some, it would’ve started feeling like ‘Houston, we have a problem.’”</p>\n<p>To buttress my argument beyond that above \"if-then\" syllogism, let’s take a look at why inflation has been so low for the past three decades.</p>\n<p>To me this is mostly obvious. Prices have been tamped down by the greatest anti-inflation force of our lifetime, that being technology, specifically the explosion of consumer technology. Think about it. The first wave of technology, a good example would be IBM mainframes, saved big companies money in back-office functions, savings which they mostly kept for themselves (higher profits) and their shareholders. But the four great landmark events in the advent of consumer technology; the introduction ofthe PC in 1974 (MITS Altair),the Netscape IPO of 1995,Google search in 1998,and the launch of theiPhone in 2007(I remember Steve Jobs demoing it to me like it was yesterday), greatly accelerated, broadened and deepened this deflationary trend.</p>\n<p>Not only has technology been pushing down the cost of everything from drilling for oil, to manufacturing clothes to farming, and allowing for the creation of groundbreaking (and deflationary) competitors like Uber, Airbnb and Netflix, but it also let consumers find—on their phones—the most affordable trip to Hawaii, the least expensive haircut or the best deal on Nikes.</p>\n<p>So technology has reduced the cost of almost everything and will continue to do so the rest of our lifetime. Bottom line: Unless something terrible happens, the power of technology will outweigh and outlive COVID.</p>\n<p>There is one mitigating factor and that is globalism, which is connected to both technology and COVID. Let me briefly explain.</p>\n<p>After World War II, most of humanity has become more and more connected in terms of trade, communication, travel, etc. (See supply chain above.) Technology of course was a major enabler here; better ships, planes and faster internet, all of which as it grew more potent, accelerated globalism. Another element was the introduction of political constructs like the World Trade Organization and NAFTA. (I think of the Clinton administration andChina joining the WTO in 2001as perhaps the high-water marks of globalization.)</p>\n<p>Like its technological cousin, globalism has deflationary effects particularly on the labor front as companies could more and more easily find lowest cost countries to produce goods and source materials. And like technology, globalization seemed inexorable, which it was, until it wasn’t. Political winds, manifested by the likes of Brexit and leaders like Putin, Xi Jinping, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Duterte and of course Donald Trump have caused globalism to wane and anti-globalism and nationalism to wax.</p>\n<p>The internet too, once seen as only a great connector, has also become a global divider, as the world increasingly fractures into Chinese, U.S. and European walled digital zones when it comes to social media and search for example. Security risks, privacy, spying and hacking of course divide us further here too.</p>\n<p>So technology, which had made globalism stronger and stronger, now also makes it weaker and weaker.</p>\n<p>COVID plays a role in rethinking globalism as it exposes vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Companies that were rethinking their manufacturing in China but considering another country, are now wondering if it just makes sense to repatriate the whole shebang. Supply chains that were optimized for cost only are being rethought with security and reliability being factored in and that costs money.</p>\n<p>How significant is this decline in globalization and how permanent is it? Good questions. But my point here is whether or not \"globalism disrupted\" is transitory (!) or not, it could push prices up, (in the short and intermediate run at least), as cost is sacrificed for predictability. Longer term I say Americans are a resourceful people. We’ll figure out how to make cost effective stuff in the U.S. It’s also likely that globalism will trend upward again, though perhaps not as unfettered as it once was.</p>\n<p>More downward pressure on pricing could come from shifts in employment practices. Mark Zandi points out that “the work-from-anywhere dynamic could depress wage growth and prices. If I don’t need to work in New York anymore and could live in Tampa, it stands to reason my wage could get cut or I won’t get the same wage increase in the future.”</p>\n<p>And so what is Zandi’s take on transitory? “What we’re observing now is prices going back to pre-pandemic,” he says. “The price spikes we’re experiencing now will continue for the next few months through summer but certainly by the end of year, this time next year, they will have disappeared. I do think underlying inflation will be higher post-pandemic than pre-pandemic, but that’s a feature not a bug.”</p>\n<p>I don’t disagree. To me it’s simple: The technology wave I’ve described above is bigger than COVID and bigger than the rise and fall of globalism. And that is why, ladies and gentlemen, I believe inflation will be transitory, certainly in the long run. (Though I’m well aware of whatJohn Maynard Keynes said about the long run.)</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Answering the great inflation question of our time</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAnswering the great inflation question of our time\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-20 09:19 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html><strong>finance.yahoo</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.\nUnfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/answering-the-great-inflation-question-of-our-time-114153460.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133385197","content_text":"Prices of everything; a house in Phoenix, a Ford F-150, a plane ticket to New York, have all gone up. That much is true.\nUnfortunately pretty much everything else about inflation—a red hot topic these days—is conjecture. And that’s vexing, not just for the dismal scientists (aka economists), but for all of us, because whether or not prices are really rising, by how much and for how long, has massive implications in our lives. Or as Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, says: “Inflation is one of the mysteries of economic study and thought. A difficult thing to gauge and forecast and get right. That’s why the risks are high.”\nThe current debate over inflation really revolves around two questions: First, is this current spate of inflation, just that, a spate—or to use Wall Street’s buzzword of the moment, “transitory,”—or not? (Just to give you an idea of how buzzy, when I Google the word “transitory” the search engine suggests “inflation” after it.) And second, transitory (aka temporary) inflation or not, what does it suggest for the economy and markets?\nBefore I get into that, let me lay out what’s going on with prices right now. First, know that inflation,which peaked in 1980 at an annualized rate of 13.55%,has been tame for quite some time, specifically 4% or less for nearly 30 years. Which means that anyone 40 years old or younger has no experience with inflation other than maybe from an Econ 101 textbook. Obviously that could be a problem.\nAs an aside I remember President Ford in 1974 trying to jawbone inflation down with his \"Whip Inflation Now\" campaign, which featured“Win” buttons,earringsand evenugly sweaters.None of this worked and it took draconian measures by Fed Chair Paul Volcker (raising rates and targeting money supply,as described by Former President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, William Poole)to eventually tame inflation and keep it under wraps for all those years.\nUntil now perhaps. Last week theLabor Department reported that consumer prices (the CPI, or consumer price index) rose 5% in May,the fastest annual rate in nearly 13 years—which was when the economy was overheating from the housing boom which subsequently went bust and sent the economy off a cliff and into the Great Recession. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 3.8%, the biggest increase since May 1992. (For the record, the likelihood of the economy tanking right now is de minimis.)\n\nUsed car and truck prices are a major driver of inflation, climbing 7.3% last month and 29.7% over the past year. New car prices are up too, which have pushed upshares of Ford and GM a remarkable 40% plus this year.Clearly Americans want to buy vehicles to go on vacation and get back to work. And Yahoo Finance’sJanna Herron reportsthat rents are rising at their fastest pace in 15 years.\nTo be sure, not all prices are climbing.As Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman points out,prices are not up much at all for health care, education and are basically flat for technology, including computers, smartphones and internet service (an important point which we’ll get back to.)\nBut that’s the counterpoint really. Americans are obsessed with cars, housing is critical and many of us are experiencing sticker shock booking travel this summer. Higher prices are front and center. Wall Street too is in a tizzy about inflation, and concerns about it and more importantly Federal Reserve policy in response to inflation (see below), sent stocks lower with the S&P 500 down 1.91% this week, its worst week since February.\nGiven this backdrop, the tension (such as it is) was high when the Fed met this week to deliver its forecast and for Chair Jay Powell to answer questions from the media. Or at least so said hedge fund honcho Paul Tudor Jones,who characterized the proceedings on CNBCas “the most important meeting in [Chairman] Jay Powell’s career, certainly the most important Fed meeting of the past four or five years.” Jones was critical of the Fed, which he believes is now stimulating the economy unnecessarily by keeping interest rates low and by buying financial assets. Unnecessarily, Jones says, because the economy is already running hot and needs no support. The Fed (which is in the transitory camp when it comes to inflation) risks overheating the economy by creating runaway inflation, according to PTJ.\nNow I don’t see eye to eye with Jones on this, though I should point out, he's a billionaire from investing in financial markets, and let’s just say I’m not. I should also point out that Jones, 66, is in fact old enough to remember inflation, never mind that as a young man he called the 1987 stock market crash. So we should all ignore Jones at our peril.\nAs for what the Fed put forth this past Wednesday, well it wasn’t much, signaling an expectation ofraising interest rates twice by the end of 2023(yes, that is down the road.) And Powell, who’s become much more adept at not rippling the waters these days after some rougher forays earlier in his tenure, didn’t drop any bombshells in the presser.\nWhich brings us to the question of why the Federal Reserve isn’t so concerned about inflation and thinks it is mostly—here’s that word again—transitory. To answer that, we need to first address why prices are rising right now, which can be summed up in one very familiar abbreviation: COVID-19. When COVID hit last spring the economy collapsed, which crushed demand in sectors like leisure, travel and retail. Now the economy is roaring back to life and businesses can raise prices, certainly over 2020 levels.\n“We clearly should’ve expected it,” says William Spriggs, chief economist at the AFL-CIO and a professor of economics at Howard University. “You can’t shut down the economy and think you turn on the switch [without some inflation].”\n“We had a pandemic that forced an artificial shutdown of the economy in a way that even the collapse of the financial system and the housing market didn’t, and we had a snapback at a rate we’ve never seen before—not because of the fundamentals driving recovery but because of government,” says Joel Naroff, president and chief economist of Naroff Economics.\nCOVID had other secondary effects on the economy though, besides just ultimately producing a snapback. For one thing, the pandemic throttled supply chains, specifically the shipping of parts and components from one part of the globe to another. It also confused managers about how much to produce and therefore how many parts to order.\nA prime example here is what happened to the chip (semiconductor) and auto industrieswhich I wrote about last month.Car makers thought no one would buy vehicles during the pandemic and pared back their orders with chipmakers, (which were having a tough time shipping their chips anyway.) Turned out the car guys were wrong, millions of people wanted cars and trucks, but the automakers didn’t have enough chips for their cars and had to curb production. Fewer vehicles and strong demand led to higher new car prices, which cascaded to used car prices then to car rental rates. Net net, all the friction and slowness of getting things delivered now adds to costs which causes companies to raise prices.\nAnother secondary effect of COVID which has been inflationary comes from employment,which I got into a bit last week.We all know millions were thrown out of work by COVID last year, many of whom were backstopped by government payments that could add up to $600 a week (state and federal.) These folks have been none too keen on coming back to work for minimum wage, or $290 a week. So to lure them back employers are having to pay more, which puts more money in people's pockets which allows stores for example to raise prices.\nAnti-inflation forces\nBut here’s the big-time question: If COVID was temporary, and therefore its effects are temporary and inflation is one of its effects then doesn’t it follow, ipso facto, that inflation is (OK I’ll say it again), transitory?\nI say yes, (with a bit of a caveat.) And most economists, like Claudia Sahm, a senior fellow at the Jain Family Institute and a former Federal Reserve economist, agree. “‘Transitory’ has become a buzzword,” she says. “It is important to be more concrete about what we mean by that. We’re probably going to see in the next few months inflation numbers that are bigger than average, but as long as they keep stepping down, that’s the sign of it being transitory. If we didn’t see any sign of inflation stepping down some, it would’ve started feeling like ‘Houston, we have a problem.’”\nTo buttress my argument beyond that above \"if-then\" syllogism, let’s take a look at why inflation has been so low for the past three decades.\nTo me this is mostly obvious. Prices have been tamped down by the greatest anti-inflation force of our lifetime, that being technology, specifically the explosion of consumer technology. Think about it. The first wave of technology, a good example would be IBM mainframes, saved big companies money in back-office functions, savings which they mostly kept for themselves (higher profits) and their shareholders. But the four great landmark events in the advent of consumer technology; the introduction ofthe PC in 1974 (MITS Altair),the Netscape IPO of 1995,Google search in 1998,and the launch of theiPhone in 2007(I remember Steve Jobs demoing it to me like it was yesterday), greatly accelerated, broadened and deepened this deflationary trend.\nNot only has technology been pushing down the cost of everything from drilling for oil, to manufacturing clothes to farming, and allowing for the creation of groundbreaking (and deflationary) competitors like Uber, Airbnb and Netflix, but it also let consumers find—on their phones—the most affordable trip to Hawaii, the least expensive haircut or the best deal on Nikes.\nSo technology has reduced the cost of almost everything and will continue to do so the rest of our lifetime. Bottom line: Unless something terrible happens, the power of technology will outweigh and outlive COVID.\nThere is one mitigating factor and that is globalism, which is connected to both technology and COVID. Let me briefly explain.\nAfter World War II, most of humanity has become more and more connected in terms of trade, communication, travel, etc. (See supply chain above.) Technology of course was a major enabler here; better ships, planes and faster internet, all of which as it grew more potent, accelerated globalism. Another element was the introduction of political constructs like the World Trade Organization and NAFTA. (I think of the Clinton administration andChina joining the WTO in 2001as perhaps the high-water marks of globalization.)\nLike its technological cousin, globalism has deflationary effects particularly on the labor front as companies could more and more easily find lowest cost countries to produce goods and source materials. And like technology, globalization seemed inexorable, which it was, until it wasn’t. Political winds, manifested by the likes of Brexit and leaders like Putin, Xi Jinping, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Duterte and of course Donald Trump have caused globalism to wane and anti-globalism and nationalism to wax.\nThe internet too, once seen as only a great connector, has also become a global divider, as the world increasingly fractures into Chinese, U.S. and European walled digital zones when it comes to social media and search for example. Security risks, privacy, spying and hacking of course divide us further here too.\nSo technology, which had made globalism stronger and stronger, now also makes it weaker and weaker.\nCOVID plays a role in rethinking globalism as it exposes vulnerabilities in the supply chain. Companies that were rethinking their manufacturing in China but considering another country, are now wondering if it just makes sense to repatriate the whole shebang. Supply chains that were optimized for cost only are being rethought with security and reliability being factored in and that costs money.\nHow significant is this decline in globalization and how permanent is it? Good questions. But my point here is whether or not \"globalism disrupted\" is transitory (!) or not, it could push prices up, (in the short and intermediate run at least), as cost is sacrificed for predictability. Longer term I say Americans are a resourceful people. We’ll figure out how to make cost effective stuff in the U.S. It’s also likely that globalism will trend upward again, though perhaps not as unfettered as it once was.\nMore downward pressure on pricing could come from shifts in employment practices. Mark Zandi points out that “the work-from-anywhere dynamic could depress wage growth and prices. If I don’t need to work in New York anymore and could live in Tampa, it stands to reason my wage could get cut or I won’t get the same wage increase in the future.”\nAnd so what is Zandi’s take on transitory? “What we’re observing now is prices going back to pre-pandemic,” he says. “The price spikes we’re experiencing now will continue for the next few months through summer but certainly by the end of year, this time next year, they will have disappeared. I do think underlying inflation will be higher post-pandemic than pre-pandemic, but that’s a feature not a bug.”\nI don’t disagree. To me it’s simple: The technology wave I’ve described above is bigger than COVID and bigger than the rise and fall of globalism. And that is why, ladies and gentlemen, I believe inflation will be transitory, certainly in the long run. (Though I’m well aware of whatJohn Maynard Keynes said about the long run.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165405201,"gmtCreate":1624154140703,"gmtModify":1631891311069,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165405201","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":590,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166344644,"gmtCreate":1623993915388,"gmtModify":1631891311065,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166344644","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://ttm.financial/m/news/1175693382?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>\n <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>\n <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>\n <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>The Technical Thesis</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p>\n<p>Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p>\n<p>BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p>\n<p>Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p>\n<p>When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p>\n<p>One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p>\n<p>Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p>\n<p>Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p>\n<p>BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p>\n<p>Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p>\n<p><b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p>\n<p>By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p>\n<p><b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p>\n<p>Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p>\n<p><b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p>\n<p>Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-18 09:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":0.9,"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}