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2021-07-27

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Tesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars<blockquote>特斯拉销量猛增98%；公司提高了成本较低的电动汽车的利润率</blockquote>

2021-07-31

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2021-07-23

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2021-07-14

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2021-07-09

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2021-07-01

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S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote>

2021-06-27

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2021-06-25

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2021-07-25

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2021-07-10

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5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote>

2021-07-16

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Cramer's Mad Money Recap: Why Stocks Are Going Down<blockquote>克莱默的疯狂金钱回顾：股市为何下跌</blockquote>

2021-06-18

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Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>

2021-06-18

Good read

Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>

2021-07-09

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2021-07-01

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Micron sales beat expectations as chip supplies remain tight, prices high<blockquote>由于芯片供应仍然紧张，价格高企，美光销售额超出预期</blockquote>

2021-06-22

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2021-06-22

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2021-06-20

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2021-06-20

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2021-06-18

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Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>

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company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars<blockquote>特斯拉销量猛增98%；公司提高了成本较低的电动汽车的利润率</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153028059","media":"Reuters","summary":" -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operati","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-特斯拉公司周二公布的第二季度利润高于预期，这得益于其较便宜的电动汽车销量大幅增长，该公司提高了价格以提高其利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉还削减了成本，这有助于抵消汽车行业面临的许多供应链和微芯片短缺问题。</blockquote></p><p> For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年底以来，特斯拉的利润首次不依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售环境信用，这表明制造业务的财务状况日益健康。特斯拉通过削减其称未使用或不需要的功能以及提高美国汽车价格来提高其业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.</p><p><blockquote>这家全球最有价值汽车制造商的股价在盘后交易中上涨1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.</p><p><blockquote>在与投资者和分析师的看涨期权中，特斯拉高管表示，量产增长将取决于零部件供应情况，马斯克警告称，半导体短缺将持续。</blockquote></p><p> “The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.</p><p><blockquote>“全球芯片短缺的情况仍然相当严重，”马斯克说。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Musk表示，特斯拉预计今年将在德克萨斯和德意志的在建工厂投产Model Y SUV。他表示，该公司预计电池供应商明年的产量将翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临疫情和供应链危机，但得益于Model 3轿车和Model Y等更便宜车型的销售，特斯拉在本季度的交付量仍创下了纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这家由亿万富翁企业家埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)领导的汽车制造商表示，收入从一年前的60.4亿美元跃升至119.6亿美元，当时其加州工厂因当地抗击疫情的封锁令而关闭了六周多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，分析师此前预计营收约为113亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.</p><p><blockquote>剔除项目后，特斯拉公布的每股利润为1.45美元，轻松超过分析师预期的每股98美分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，营业收入随着销量增长和成本降低而上升，这抵消了供应链成本上升、监管信贷收入下降和其他项目，包括加密货币比特币投资损失2300万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的盈利能力通常依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售监管信用，但在第二季度，特斯拉自2019年底以来首次在没有这些信用的情况下实现盈利。其第二季度GAAP净利润为11.4亿美元。这些积分的收入总计仅为3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.</p><p><blockquote>Investing.com高级分析师Jesse Cohen表示：“特斯拉对其数据印象深刻，因为其大部分收入来自汽车销售。”</blockquote></p><p> Carmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商Stellantis预计今年将在没有从特斯拉购买环境信用额的情况下实现其欧洲二氧化碳(CO2)排放目标。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，由于今年电池和其他零部件的供应有限，该公司已将Semi卡车计划的启动推迟到2022年，以专注于启动工厂。</blockquote></p><p> But the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>但该公司的新型4680电池尚未准备好量产；高管们表示，很难预测技术挑战何时能得到解决。</blockquote></p><p> In an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，马斯克表示，他“很可能不会在财报评级上”与投资者和分析师讨论财务业绩。这些评级是马斯克每季度举行的一次丰富多彩的仪式，马斯克用它来讨论特斯拉技术，或者回击竞争对手或批评者。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars<blockquote>特斯拉销量猛增98%；公司提高了成本较低的电动汽车的利润率</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars<blockquote>特斯拉销量猛增98%；公司提高了成本较低的电动汽车的利润率</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 07:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-特斯拉公司周二公布的第二季度利润高于预期，这得益于其较便宜的电动汽车销量大幅增长，该公司提高了价格以提高其利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉还削减了成本，这有助于抵消汽车行业面临的许多供应链和微芯片短缺问题。</blockquote></p><p> For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年底以来，特斯拉的利润首次不依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售环境信用，这表明制造业务的财务状况日益健康。特斯拉通过削减其称未使用或不需要的功能以及提高美国汽车价格来提高其业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.</p><p><blockquote>这家全球最有价值汽车制造商的股价在盘后交易中上涨1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.</p><p><blockquote>在与投资者和分析师的看涨期权中，特斯拉高管表示，量产增长将取决于零部件供应情况，马斯克警告称，半导体短缺将持续。</blockquote></p><p> “The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.</p><p><blockquote>“全球芯片短缺的情况仍然相当严重，”马斯克说。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Musk表示，特斯拉预计今年将在德克萨斯和德意志的在建工厂投产Model Y SUV。他表示，该公司预计电池供应商明年的产量将翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临疫情和供应链危机，但得益于Model 3轿车和Model Y等更便宜车型的销售，特斯拉在本季度的交付量仍创下了纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这家由亿万富翁企业家埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)领导的汽车制造商表示，收入从一年前的60.4亿美元跃升至119.6亿美元，当时其加州工厂因当地抗击疫情的封锁令而关闭了六周多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，分析师此前预计营收约为113亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.</p><p><blockquote>剔除项目后，特斯拉公布的每股利润为1.45美元，轻松超过分析师预期的每股98美分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，营业收入随着销量增长和成本降低而上升，这抵消了供应链成本上升、监管信贷收入下降和其他项目，包括加密货币比特币投资损失2300万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的盈利能力通常依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售监管信用，但在第二季度，特斯拉自2019年底以来首次在没有这些信用的情况下实现盈利。其第二季度GAAP净利润为11.4亿美元。这些积分的收入总计仅为3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.</p><p><blockquote>Investing.com高级分析师Jesse Cohen表示：“特斯拉对其数据印象深刻，因为其大部分收入来自汽车销售。”</blockquote></p><p> Carmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商Stellantis预计今年将在没有从特斯拉购买环境信用额的情况下实现其欧洲二氧化碳(CO2)排放目标。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，由于今年电池和其他零部件的供应有限，该公司已将Semi卡车计划的启动推迟到2022年，以专注于启动工厂。</blockquote></p><p> But the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>但该公司的新型4680电池尚未准备好量产；高管们表示，很难预测技术挑战何时能得到解决。</blockquote></p><p> In an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，马斯克表示，他“很可能不会在财报评级上”与投资者和分析师讨论财务业绩。这些评级是马斯克每季度举行的一次丰富多彩的仪式，马斯克用它来讨论特斯拉技术，或者回击竞争对手或批评者。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-results/update-4-tesla-sales-surge-98-company-boosts-margins-on-its-less-costly-electric-cars-idUSL4N2P23I5\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-results/update-4-tesla-sales-surge-98-company-boosts-margins-on-its-less-costly-electric-cars-idUSL4N2P23I5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153028059","content_text":"(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.\nTesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.\nFor the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.\nShares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.\nIn a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.\n“The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.\nStill, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.\nDespite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.\nThe carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.\nAnalysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nExcluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.\nTesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.\nTesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.\n“Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.\nCarmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.\nTesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.\nBut the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.\nIn an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177800781,"gmtCreate":1627191608543,"gmtModify":1631886472259,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177800781","repostId":"1115106146","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175215167,"gmtCreate":1627034119359,"gmtModify":1631886472272,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175215167","repostId":"1123663609","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170076201,"gmtCreate":1626397714703,"gmtModify":1631886472282,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170076201","repostId":"1143835393","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143835393","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626396523,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143835393?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 08:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cramer's Mad Money Recap: Why Stocks Are Going Down<blockquote>克莱默的疯狂金钱回顾：股市为何下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143835393","media":"The Street","summary":"Jim Cramer says it's not so much about the economy as it is the simple rules of supply and demand. T","content":"<p>  Jim Cramer says it's not so much about the economy as it is the simple rules of supply and demand. There's not enough cash to buy everything.  There are a lot of theories on why stocks are going down, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Thursday, but there's only one theory that's correct. As he noted on last night's show, too often investors can't see the forest for the trees instead focusing on the economy rather than the fundamentals of supply and demand.</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·克莱默说，这与其说是经济的问题，不如说是简单的供求规则。没有足够的现金买所有的东西。吉姆·克莱默周四对《Mad Money》观众表示，关于股市下跌的原因有很多理论，但只有一种理论是正确的。正如他在昨晚的节目中指出的那样，投资者往往只见树木不见森林，而是关注经济而不是供需基本面。</blockquote></p><p> For example, many investors are taking their cue from the bond markets, which are far bigger than stocks. They have all sorts of theories as to why bond yields are plunging.</p><p><blockquote>例如，许多投资者从债券市场中得到启示，债券市场的规模远远大于股票。对于债券收益率暴跌的原因，他们有各种各样的理论。</blockquote></p><p> Is it because our rates are better than the rest of the world? Is it because Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell is right and inflation is only transitory? Or is it because we're about to see a slowdown in our economy?</p><p><blockquote>是因为我们的利率比世界其他地方好吗？是因为美联储主席鲍威尔是对的，通胀只是暂时的吗？还是因为我们即将看到经济放缓？</blockquote></p><p> Cramer said while he does believe that Powell is correct and inflation is transitory, none of these reasons really explain the action in bonds or in the stock market. What does explain the action, however, is supply and demand.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默表示，虽然他确实相信鲍威尔是正确的，通胀是暂时的，但这些原因都不能真正解释债券或股市的走势。然而，解释这一行为的是供给和需求。</blockquote></p><p> For months now, the markets have been flooded with new offerings in the form of IPOs and SPACs, and the market has increasingly struggled to absorb them all. Eventually, as it always does, supply outstrips demand and prices plunge, just as they are now. There's simply not enough cash to buy everything.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，市场上充斥着IPO和SPAC形式的新产品，市场越来越难以吸收所有这些产品。最终，一如既往，供大于求，价格暴跌，就像现在一样。根本没有足够的现金买所有的东西。</blockquote></p><p> So while everyone has their theories, the truth is that employment is strong and inflation is waning. But when it comes to IPOs, the cycle has simply run its course.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管每个人都有自己的理论，但事实是就业强劲，通胀正在减弱。但当涉及到首次公开募股时，这个周期已经结束了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多</b></blockquote></p><p> In a special interview, Cramer welcomed back Gina Raimondo, U.S. Secretary of Commerce, for an update on the White House's economic plans to keep the economy moving forward. President Biden's latest plans include a $600 billion infrastructure package to rebuild roads, bridges and the nation's power grid, and a $3.5 trillion budget proposal that includes universal pre-kindergarten and two-year community college, among other priorities.</p><p><blockquote>在一次特别采访中，克莱默欢迎美国商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多回来，介绍白宫保持经济发展的经济计划的最新情况。拜登总统的最新计划包括一项6000亿美元的基础设施计划，用于重建道路、桥梁和国家电网，以及一项3.5万亿美元的预算提案，其中包括普及学前教育和两年制社区大学等优先事项。</blockquote></p><p> Raimondo said there are still millions of women out of the workforce because they're struggling with childcare and elder care. That's why the latest proposals include investments in caregiving as well as universal kindergarten to give all of our children a head start on their education.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙多说，仍有数百万女性失业，因为她们在照顾孩子和照顾老人方面苦苦挣扎。这就是为什么最新的提案包括对护理和普及幼儿园的投资，让我们所有的孩子在教育上有一个良好的开端。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Raimondo said we need to invest more in digital literacy and digital skills for our modern world. That includes getting more girls and minorities involved in data science so they can compete on a global stage.</p><p><blockquote>此外，雷蒙多表示，我们需要在现代世界的数字素养和数字技能方面进行更多投资。这包括让更多的女孩和少数族裔参与数据科学，以便他们能够在全球舞台上竞争。</blockquote></p><p> When asked about supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic, Raimondo called out Friday's scheduled meeting at the White House, which will include the home building and construction industries, that aims to address shortages in lumber and other building supplies. If we can produce more, prices will decline, Raimondo said, and that's the goal.</p><p><blockquote>当被问及疫情造成的供应链中断时，雷蒙多呼吁周五在白宫举行会议，会议将包括住宅建筑和建筑业，旨在解决木材和其他建筑用品的短缺问题。雷蒙多说，如果我们能够生产更多，价格就会下降，这就是我们的目标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bull in the Second-Hand Shop</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二手店里的公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> There's a new long-term bull market brewing in the secondhand marketplace, Cramer told viewers, and it's time to compare the players and pick a winner. The contenders include Poshmark&nbsp;(<b>POSH</b>) -Get Report, ThredUp&nbsp;(<b>TDUP</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and RealReal&nbsp;(<b>REAL</b>) -Get Report, along with Etsy&nbsp;(<b>ETSY</b>) -Get Report, which just purchased Depop for $1.6 billion, and the king of secondhand goods, eBay&nbsp;(<b>EBAY</b>) -Get Report.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默告诉观众，二手市场正在酝酿一个新的长期牛市，现在是时候比较参与者并选出赢家了。竞争者包括Poshmark（<b>豪华</b>)-获取报告，ThredUp(<b>TDUP</b>)-获取报告和RealReal(<b>真的</b>)-获取报告，以及Etsy(<b>ETSY</b>）——刚刚以16亿美元收购Depop的Get Report和二手商品之王eBay（<b>EBAY</b>)-获取报告。</blockquote></p><p> For comparison, eBay is clearly the largest, with 187 million buyers around the globe. EBay is followed by Poshmark at seven million, Etsy with four million, ThredUp at 1.3 million and RealReal with just 700,000.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，eBay显然是最大的，在全球拥有1.87亿买家。紧随EBay之后的是Poshmark（700万）、Etsy（400万）、ThredUp（130万）和RealReal（仅70万）。</blockquote></p><p> Cramer said with 42% revenue growth, his favorite in the space is PoshMark, which appeared recently on the show. He said both eBay and Etsy remain fabulous companies as well, but Poshmark has the growth. ThredUp simply isn't that exciting at just 15% growth, he said, and RealReal is still recovering from its authenticity issues surrounding counterfeit items on its platform.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默表示，随着42%的收入增长，他在该领域最喜欢的是最近出现在节目中的PoshMark。他表示，eBay和Etsy仍然是出色的公司，但Poshmark取得了增长。他表示，ThredUp仅增长了15%，这并不令人兴奋，RealReal仍在从围绕其平台上假冒商品的真实性问题中恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Executive Decision:&nbsp;Corsair Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>行政决定：Corsair Gaming</b></blockquote></p><p> In his \"Executive Decision\" segment, Cramer spoke with Andy Paul, co-founder and CEO of Corsair Gaming&nbsp;(<b>CRSR</b>) -Get Report, makers of high-end gaming peripherals.</p><p><blockquote>在“行政决策”部分，克莱默采访了Corsair Gaming联合创始人兼首席执行官安迪·保罗（Andy Paul）（<b>CRSR</b>）-获取报告，高端游戏外设制造商。</blockquote></p><p> Paul noted that while the number of gamers has increased between 3% to 4% every year over the past few years, gaming hardware has grown by 24%, on average, and gamers continually upgrade their equipment to the latest technologies.</p><p><blockquote>Paul指出，虽然在过去几年中，游戏玩家的数量每年增长3%至4%，但游戏硬件平均增长了24%，游戏玩家不断将他们的设备升级到最新技术。</blockquote></p><p> Paul added that if you think about gaming as a hobby or a sport, no one buys just one set of golf clubs or one set of skis. The same applies to gaming, where people start with the basics and upgrade over time.</p><p><blockquote>保罗补充说，如果你把游戏视为一种爱好或一项运动，没有人会只买一套高尔夫球杆或一套滑雪板。这同样适用于游戏，人们从基础开始，随着时间的推移而升级。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Corsair is also very active in the streaming space, making lighting and other gear gamers need to broadcast their games live to the world. Paul noted his company's first foray into gaming cameras, which provides all of the features of a DSLR in a simple webcam package.</p><p><blockquote>Corsair在流媒体领域也非常活跃，使得照明和其他装备游戏玩家需要向世界直播他们的游戏。Paul提到了他的公司首次涉足游戏相机，它在一个简单的网络摄像头包中提供了DSLR的所有功能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lightning Round</b></p><p><blockquote><b>闪电轮</b></blockquote></p><p> Here's what Jim Cramer had to say about some of the stocks that callers offered up during the \"Mad Money Lightning Round\" Thursday evening:</p><p><blockquote>以下是吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)对周四晚上“疯狂资金闪电轮”期间来电者提供的一些股票的看法：</blockquote></p><p> Rio Tinto&nbsp;(<b>RIO</b>) -Get Report: \"I think Rio Tinto is a good company and I want you to hold onto it.\"</p><p><blockquote>力拓（<b>里奥</b>）-获取报告：“我认为力拓是一家好公司，我希望你持有它。”</blockquote></p><p> QuantumScape&nbsp;(<b>QS</b>) -Get Report: \"There are other companies that claim they have better batteries and I'm starting to believe them.\"</p><p><blockquote>量子景观（<b>QS</b>)-获取报告：“还有其他公司声称他们拥有更好的电池，我开始相信他们。”</blockquote></p><p> VMware&nbsp;(<b>VMW</b>) -Get Report: \"I'd rather own Dell&nbsp;(<b>DELL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;than VMWare.\"</p><p><blockquote>VMware（<b>VMW</b>)-获取报告：“我宁愿拥有戴尔(<b>戴尔</b>)-获取比VMWare更好的报告。”</blockquote></p><p> Veru(<b>VERU</b>) -Get Report: \"They need to get into Stage III trials before we can get excited about them.\"</p><p><blockquote>Veru（<b>维鲁</b>)-获取报告：“他们需要进入III期试验，我们才能对他们感到兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cramer's Mad Money Recap: Why Stocks Are Going Down<blockquote>克莱默的疯狂金钱回顾：股市为何下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCramer's Mad Money Recap: Why Stocks Are Going Down<blockquote>克莱默的疯狂金钱回顾：股市为何下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-16 08:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Jim Cramer says it's not so much about the economy as it is the simple rules of supply and demand. There's not enough cash to buy everything.  There are a lot of theories on why stocks are going down, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Thursday, but there's only one theory that's correct. As he noted on last night's show, too often investors can't see the forest for the trees instead focusing on the economy rather than the fundamentals of supply and demand.</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·克莱默说，这与其说是经济的问题，不如说是简单的供求规则。没有足够的现金买所有的东西。吉姆·克莱默周四对《Mad Money》观众表示，关于股市下跌的原因有很多理论，但只有一种理论是正确的。正如他在昨晚的节目中指出的那样，投资者往往只见树木不见森林，而是关注经济而不是供需基本面。</blockquote></p><p> For example, many investors are taking their cue from the bond markets, which are far bigger than stocks. They have all sorts of theories as to why bond yields are plunging.</p><p><blockquote>例如，许多投资者从债券市场中得到启示，债券市场的规模远远大于股票。对于债券收益率暴跌的原因，他们有各种各样的理论。</blockquote></p><p> Is it because our rates are better than the rest of the world? Is it because Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell is right and inflation is only transitory? Or is it because we're about to see a slowdown in our economy?</p><p><blockquote>是因为我们的利率比世界其他地方好吗？是因为美联储主席鲍威尔是对的，通胀只是暂时的吗？还是因为我们即将看到经济放缓？</blockquote></p><p> Cramer said while he does believe that Powell is correct and inflation is transitory, none of these reasons really explain the action in bonds or in the stock market. What does explain the action, however, is supply and demand.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默表示，虽然他确实相信鲍威尔是正确的，通胀是暂时的，但这些原因都不能真正解释债券或股市的走势。然而，解释这一行为的是供给和需求。</blockquote></p><p> For months now, the markets have been flooded with new offerings in the form of IPOs and SPACs, and the market has increasingly struggled to absorb them all. Eventually, as it always does, supply outstrips demand and prices plunge, just as they are now. There's simply not enough cash to buy everything.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，市场上充斥着IPO和SPAC形式的新产品，市场越来越难以吸收所有这些产品。最终，一如既往，供大于求，价格暴跌，就像现在一样。根本没有足够的现金买所有的东西。</blockquote></p><p> So while everyone has their theories, the truth is that employment is strong and inflation is waning. But when it comes to IPOs, the cycle has simply run its course.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管每个人都有自己的理论，但事实是就业强劲，通胀正在减弱。但当涉及到首次公开募股时，这个周期已经结束了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多</b></blockquote></p><p> In a special interview, Cramer welcomed back Gina Raimondo, U.S. Secretary of Commerce, for an update on the White House's economic plans to keep the economy moving forward. President Biden's latest plans include a $600 billion infrastructure package to rebuild roads, bridges and the nation's power grid, and a $3.5 trillion budget proposal that includes universal pre-kindergarten and two-year community college, among other priorities.</p><p><blockquote>在一次特别采访中，克莱默欢迎美国商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多回来，介绍白宫保持经济发展的经济计划的最新情况。拜登总统的最新计划包括一项6000亿美元的基础设施计划，用于重建道路、桥梁和国家电网，以及一项3.5万亿美元的预算提案，其中包括普及学前教育和两年制社区大学等优先事项。</blockquote></p><p> Raimondo said there are still millions of women out of the workforce because they're struggling with childcare and elder care. That's why the latest proposals include investments in caregiving as well as universal kindergarten to give all of our children a head start on their education.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙多说，仍有数百万女性失业，因为她们在照顾孩子和照顾老人方面苦苦挣扎。这就是为什么最新的提案包括对护理和普及幼儿园的投资，让我们所有的孩子在教育上有一个良好的开端。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Raimondo said we need to invest more in digital literacy and digital skills for our modern world. That includes getting more girls and minorities involved in data science so they can compete on a global stage.</p><p><blockquote>此外，雷蒙多表示，我们需要在现代世界的数字素养和数字技能方面进行更多投资。这包括让更多的女孩和少数族裔参与数据科学，以便他们能够在全球舞台上竞争。</blockquote></p><p> When asked about supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic, Raimondo called out Friday's scheduled meeting at the White House, which will include the home building and construction industries, that aims to address shortages in lumber and other building supplies. If we can produce more, prices will decline, Raimondo said, and that's the goal.</p><p><blockquote>当被问及疫情造成的供应链中断时，雷蒙多呼吁周五在白宫举行会议，会议将包括住宅建筑和建筑业，旨在解决木材和其他建筑用品的短缺问题。雷蒙多说，如果我们能够生产更多，价格就会下降，这就是我们的目标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bull in the Second-Hand Shop</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二手店里的公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> There's a new long-term bull market brewing in the secondhand marketplace, Cramer told viewers, and it's time to compare the players and pick a winner. The contenders include Poshmark&nbsp;(<b>POSH</b>) -Get Report, ThredUp&nbsp;(<b>TDUP</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and RealReal&nbsp;(<b>REAL</b>) -Get Report, along with Etsy&nbsp;(<b>ETSY</b>) -Get Report, which just purchased Depop for $1.6 billion, and the king of secondhand goods, eBay&nbsp;(<b>EBAY</b>) -Get Report.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默告诉观众，二手市场正在酝酿一个新的长期牛市，现在是时候比较参与者并选出赢家了。竞争者包括Poshmark（<b>豪华</b>)-获取报告，ThredUp(<b>TDUP</b>)-获取报告和RealReal(<b>真的</b>)-获取报告，以及Etsy(<b>ETSY</b>）——刚刚以16亿美元收购Depop的Get Report和二手商品之王eBay（<b>EBAY</b>)-获取报告。</blockquote></p><p> For comparison, eBay is clearly the largest, with 187 million buyers around the globe. EBay is followed by Poshmark at seven million, Etsy with four million, ThredUp at 1.3 million and RealReal with just 700,000.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，eBay显然是最大的，在全球拥有1.87亿买家。紧随EBay之后的是Poshmark（700万）、Etsy（400万）、ThredUp（130万）和RealReal（仅70万）。</blockquote></p><p> Cramer said with 42% revenue growth, his favorite in the space is PoshMark, which appeared recently on the show. He said both eBay and Etsy remain fabulous companies as well, but Poshmark has the growth. ThredUp simply isn't that exciting at just 15% growth, he said, and RealReal is still recovering from its authenticity issues surrounding counterfeit items on its platform.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默表示，随着42%的收入增长，他在该领域最喜欢的是最近出现在节目中的PoshMark。他表示，eBay和Etsy仍然是出色的公司，但Poshmark取得了增长。他表示，ThredUp仅增长了15%，这并不令人兴奋，RealReal仍在从围绕其平台上假冒商品的真实性问题中恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Executive Decision:&nbsp;Corsair Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>行政决定：Corsair Gaming</b></blockquote></p><p> In his \"Executive Decision\" segment, Cramer spoke with Andy Paul, co-founder and CEO of Corsair Gaming&nbsp;(<b>CRSR</b>) -Get Report, makers of high-end gaming peripherals.</p><p><blockquote>在“行政决策”部分，克莱默采访了Corsair Gaming联合创始人兼首席执行官安迪·保罗（Andy Paul）（<b>CRSR</b>）-获取报告，高端游戏外设制造商。</blockquote></p><p> Paul noted that while the number of gamers has increased between 3% to 4% every year over the past few years, gaming hardware has grown by 24%, on average, and gamers continually upgrade their equipment to the latest technologies.</p><p><blockquote>Paul指出，虽然在过去几年中，游戏玩家的数量每年增长3%至4%，但游戏硬件平均增长了24%，游戏玩家不断将他们的设备升级到最新技术。</blockquote></p><p> Paul added that if you think about gaming as a hobby or a sport, no one buys just one set of golf clubs or one set of skis. The same applies to gaming, where people start with the basics and upgrade over time.</p><p><blockquote>保罗补充说，如果你把游戏视为一种爱好或一项运动，没有人会只买一套高尔夫球杆或一套滑雪板。这同样适用于游戏，人们从基础开始，随着时间的推移而升级。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Corsair is also very active in the streaming space, making lighting and other gear gamers need to broadcast their games live to the world. Paul noted his company's first foray into gaming cameras, which provides all of the features of a DSLR in a simple webcam package.</p><p><blockquote>Corsair在流媒体领域也非常活跃，使得照明和其他装备游戏玩家需要向世界直播他们的游戏。Paul提到了他的公司首次涉足游戏相机，它在一个简单的网络摄像头包中提供了DSLR的所有功能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lightning Round</b></p><p><blockquote><b>闪电轮</b></blockquote></p><p> Here's what Jim Cramer had to say about some of the stocks that callers offered up during the \"Mad Money Lightning Round\" Thursday evening:</p><p><blockquote>以下是吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)对周四晚上“疯狂资金闪电轮”期间来电者提供的一些股票的看法：</blockquote></p><p> Rio Tinto&nbsp;(<b>RIO</b>) -Get Report: \"I think Rio Tinto is a good company and I want you to hold onto it.\"</p><p><blockquote>力拓（<b>里奥</b>）-获取报告：“我认为力拓是一家好公司，我希望你持有它。”</blockquote></p><p> QuantumScape&nbsp;(<b>QS</b>) -Get Report: \"There are other companies that claim they have better batteries and I'm starting to believe them.\"</p><p><blockquote>量子景观（<b>QS</b>)-获取报告：“还有其他公司声称他们拥有更好的电池，我开始相信他们。”</blockquote></p><p> VMware&nbsp;(<b>VMW</b>) -Get Report: \"I'd rather own Dell&nbsp;(<b>DELL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;than VMWare.\"</p><p><blockquote>VMware（<b>VMW</b>)-获取报告：“我宁愿拥有戴尔(<b>戴尔</b>)-获取比VMWare更好的报告。”</blockquote></p><p> Veru(<b>VERU</b>) -Get Report: \"They need to get into Stage III trials before we can get excited about them.\"</p><p><blockquote>Veru（<b>维鲁</b>)-获取报告：“他们需要进入III期试验，我们才能对他们感到兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/cramers-mad-money-recap-july-15-2021\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/cramers-mad-money-recap-july-15-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143835393","content_text":"Jim Cramer says it's not so much about the economy as it is the simple rules of supply and demand. There's not enough cash to buy everything.\n\nThere are a lot of theories on why stocks are going down, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Thursday, but there's only one theory that's correct. As he noted on last night's show, too often investors can't see the forest for the trees instead focusing on the economy rather than the fundamentals of supply and demand.\nFor example, many investors are taking their cue from the bond markets, which are far bigger than stocks. They have all sorts of theories as to why bond yields are plunging.\nIs it because our rates are better than the rest of the world? Is it because Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell is right and inflation is only transitory? Or is it because we're about to see a slowdown in our economy?\nCramer said while he does believe that Powell is correct and inflation is transitory, none of these reasons really explain the action in bonds or in the stock market. What does explain the action, however, is supply and demand.\nFor months now, the markets have been flooded with new offerings in the form of IPOs and SPACs, and the market has increasingly struggled to absorb them all. Eventually, as it always does, supply outstrips demand and prices plunge, just as they are now. There's simply not enough cash to buy everything.\nSo while everyone has their theories, the truth is that employment is strong and inflation is waning. But when it comes to IPOs, the cycle has simply run its course.\nSecretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo\nIn a special interview, Cramer welcomed back Gina Raimondo, U.S. Secretary of Commerce, for an update on the White House's economic plans to keep the economy moving forward. President Biden's latest plans include a $600 billion infrastructure package to rebuild roads, bridges and the nation's power grid, and a $3.5 trillion budget proposal that includes universal pre-kindergarten and two-year community college, among other priorities.\nRaimondo said there are still millions of women out of the workforce because they're struggling with childcare and elder care. That's why the latest proposals include investments in caregiving as well as universal kindergarten to give all of our children a head start on their education.\nAdditionally, Raimondo said we need to invest more in digital literacy and digital skills for our modern world. That includes getting more girls and minorities involved in data science so they can compete on a global stage.\nWhen asked about supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic, Raimondo called out Friday's scheduled meeting at the White House, which will include the home building and construction industries, that aims to address shortages in lumber and other building supplies. If we can produce more, prices will decline, Raimondo said, and that's the goal.\nBull in the Second-Hand Shop\nThere's a new long-term bull market brewing in the secondhand marketplace, Cramer told viewers, and it's time to compare the players and pick a winner. The contenders include Poshmark (POSH) -Get Report, ThredUp (TDUP) -Get Report and RealReal (REAL) -Get Report, along with Etsy (ETSY) -Get Report, which just purchased Depop for $1.6 billion, and the king of secondhand goods, eBay (EBAY) -Get Report.\nFor comparison, eBay is clearly the largest, with 187 million buyers around the globe. EBay is followed by Poshmark at seven million, Etsy with four million, ThredUp at 1.3 million and RealReal with just 700,000.\nCramer said with 42% revenue growth, his favorite in the space is PoshMark, which appeared recently on the show. He said both eBay and Etsy remain fabulous companies as well, but Poshmark has the growth. ThredUp simply isn't that exciting at just 15% growth, he said, and RealReal is still recovering from its authenticity issues surrounding counterfeit items on its platform.\nExecutive Decision: Corsair Gaming\nIn his \"Executive Decision\" segment, Cramer spoke with Andy Paul, co-founder and CEO of Corsair Gaming (CRSR) -Get Report, makers of high-end gaming peripherals.\nPaul noted that while the number of gamers has increased between 3% to 4% every year over the past few years, gaming hardware has grown by 24%, on average, and gamers continually upgrade their equipment to the latest technologies.\nPaul added that if you think about gaming as a hobby or a sport, no one buys just one set of golf clubs or one set of skis. The same applies to gaming, where people start with the basics and upgrade over time.\nCorsair is also very active in the streaming space, making lighting and other gear gamers need to broadcast their games live to the world. Paul noted his company's first foray into gaming cameras, which provides all of the features of a DSLR in a simple webcam package.\nLightning Round\nHere's what Jim Cramer had to say about some of the stocks that callers offered up during the \"Mad Money Lightning Round\" Thursday evening:\nRio Tinto (RIO) -Get Report: \"I think Rio Tinto is a good company and I want you to hold onto it.\"\nQuantumScape (QS) -Get Report: \"There are other companies that claim they have better batteries and I'm starting to believe them.\"\nVMware (VMW) -Get Report: \"I'd rather own Dell (DELL) -Get Report than VMWare.\"\nVeru(VERU) -Get Report: \"They need to get into Stage III trials before we can get excited about them.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145867113,"gmtCreate":1626218170132,"gmtModify":1631886472293,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment&nbsp;","listText":"Comment&nbsp;","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145867113","repostId":"2151560584","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148964098,"gmtCreate":1625918290214,"gmtModify":1631886472306,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148964098","repostId":"1159307278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159307278","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625873648,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159307278?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 07:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159307278","media":"Barrons","summary":"Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling s","content":"<p>Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the&nbsp;fledgling space tourism industry.</p><p><blockquote>理查德·布兰森计划于周日飞往太空，这对于刚刚起步的太空旅游业来说可能是一个里程碑式的时刻。</blockquote></p><p> So long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.</p><p><blockquote>只要没有问题或延误，这次飞行将带着70岁的维珍银河（股票代码：SPCE）创始人、公司任务专家和飞行员进行首次客运太空之旅，击败杰夫·贝索斯的蓝色起源客运航班一周多。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.</p><p><blockquote>以下是周日值得关注的内容，以及一些最近的历史。</blockquote></p><p> <b>When Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河太空飞行什么时候起飞？</b></blockquote></p><p> The Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the&nbsp;company’s website&nbsp;and on&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;below.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河Unity 22太空飞行预计将于东部时间上午9点左右从新墨西哥州的维珍航天港发射。此次发布会可以在公司网站和下面的《巴伦周刊》上进行现场直播。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客会飞到多高的太空？</b></blockquote></p><p> Galactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.</p><p><blockquote>银河的VSS Unity航天器将达到约3马赫的速度，即音速的三倍，并上升到约30万英尺，即57英里。这大约是许多商业飞行的10倍，但仍然被认为是太空的边缘。亚轨道飞行不会通过所谓的卡门线，这是科学家用来定义外太空边界的。那条线大约在62英里处。</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源计划让乘客在航班上经过卡门线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客为这次旅行支付了多少钱？</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.</p><p><blockquote>没有。虽然这次飞行可能是太空旅游向前迈出的又一步，但预计的机组人员是银河员工和布兰森。加入公司创始人的将是两名飞行员；贝丝·摩西，首席宇航员教练；Colin Bennett，首席运营工程师；以及政府事务和研究运营副总裁Sirisha Bandla。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes&nbsp;it’s possible&nbsp;that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，布兰森对宣传并不陌生。Canaccord分析师肯·赫伯特(Ken Herbert)认为，银河有可能通过布兰森带来付费客户来给观众带来惊喜。这将为公司带来额外的轰动。</blockquote></p><p> A move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for&nbsp;$28 million.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措将以另一种方式击败太空旅游竞争对手蓝色起源。贝佐斯预计将在本月晚些时候乘坐他的航班将第一位付费乘客送往太空。那个座位以2800万美元的价格被拍卖。</blockquote></p><p> A ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run&nbsp;about $250,000.</p><p><blockquote>未来维珍银河航班的机票价格约为25万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Does the Flight Mean for Investors?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外逃对投资者意味着什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> The continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.</p><p><blockquote>飞行测试的继续使Galactic离完全商业化又近了一步，这意味着未来的销售和盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Once fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.</p><p><blockquote>一旦全面投入使用，每艘银河飞船预计每年将进行大约36次飞行。大多数银河飞船都有大约六个座位出售。满负荷运转时，每艘宇宙飞船每年的费用约为5400万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，银河2021年的销售额约为300万美元，2022年将增长至5100万美元，到2025年将增长至5.55亿美元。盈利和现金流预计将在2024年左右转正。</blockquote></p><p> The flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.</p><p><blockquote>该航班和相关新闻报道也代表了公司的宣传。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河股票将如何受益？</b></blockquote></p><p> A successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.</p><p><blockquote>成功的试飞对银河来说显然是积极的，但对其股票来说可能并非如此。这次飞行的消息和潜在的好处在很大程度上已经反映在维珍银河的股票中。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4113576958bcf043e56e1c92578d0cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该股今年迄今已上涨约120%，过去12个月上涨超过200%，使这家初创公司的市值约为110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Investors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.</p><p><blockquote>如果该股在成功飞行后周一没有上涨，投资者不应该感到失望。公司的最终价值将在未来决定。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stocks is about 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师喜欢该股便宜的时候。早在9月份，所有研究银河股票的分析师都给予买入评级。标准普尔500指数股票的平均买入评级约为55%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.</p><p><blockquote>9月份股价为25美元。现在，由于该股已飙升至每股50美元以上，只有30%的分析师将该股评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 07:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the&nbsp;fledgling space tourism industry.</p><p><blockquote>理查德·布兰森计划于周日飞往太空，这对于刚刚起步的太空旅游业来说可能是一个里程碑式的时刻。</blockquote></p><p> So long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.</p><p><blockquote>只要没有问题或延误，这次飞行将带着70岁的维珍银河（股票代码：SPCE）创始人、公司任务专家和飞行员进行首次客运太空之旅，击败杰夫·贝索斯的蓝色起源客运航班一周多。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.</p><p><blockquote>以下是周日值得关注的内容，以及一些最近的历史。</blockquote></p><p> <b>When Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河太空飞行什么时候起飞？</b></blockquote></p><p> The Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the&nbsp;company’s website&nbsp;and on&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;below.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河Unity 22太空飞行预计将于东部时间上午9点左右从新墨西哥州的维珍航天港发射。此次发布会可以在公司网站和下面的《巴伦周刊》上进行现场直播。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客会飞到多高的太空？</b></blockquote></p><p> Galactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.</p><p><blockquote>银河的VSS Unity航天器将达到约3马赫的速度，即音速的三倍，并上升到约30万英尺，即57英里。这大约是许多商业飞行的10倍，但仍然被认为是太空的边缘。亚轨道飞行不会通过所谓的卡门线，这是科学家用来定义外太空边界的。那条线大约在62英里处。</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源计划让乘客在航班上经过卡门线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客为这次旅行支付了多少钱？</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.</p><p><blockquote>没有。虽然这次飞行可能是太空旅游向前迈出的又一步，但预计的机组人员是银河员工和布兰森。加入公司创始人的将是两名飞行员；贝丝·摩西，首席宇航员教练；Colin Bennett，首席运营工程师；以及政府事务和研究运营副总裁Sirisha Bandla。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes&nbsp;it’s possible&nbsp;that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，布兰森对宣传并不陌生。Canaccord分析师肯·赫伯特(Ken Herbert)认为，银河有可能通过布兰森带来付费客户来给观众带来惊喜。这将为公司带来额外的轰动。</blockquote></p><p> A move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for&nbsp;$28 million.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措将以另一种方式击败太空旅游竞争对手蓝色起源。贝佐斯预计将在本月晚些时候乘坐他的航班将第一位付费乘客送往太空。那个座位以2800万美元的价格被拍卖。</blockquote></p><p> A ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run&nbsp;about $250,000.</p><p><blockquote>未来维珍银河航班的机票价格约为25万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Does the Flight Mean for Investors?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外逃对投资者意味着什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> The continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.</p><p><blockquote>飞行测试的继续使Galactic离完全商业化又近了一步，这意味着未来的销售和盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Once fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.</p><p><blockquote>一旦全面投入使用，每艘银河飞船预计每年将进行大约36次飞行。大多数银河飞船都有大约六个座位出售。满负荷运转时，每艘宇宙飞船每年的费用约为5400万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，银河2021年的销售额约为300万美元，2022年将增长至5100万美元，到2025年将增长至5.55亿美元。盈利和现金流预计将在2024年左右转正。</blockquote></p><p> The flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.</p><p><blockquote>该航班和相关新闻报道也代表了公司的宣传。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河股票将如何受益？</b></blockquote></p><p> A successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.</p><p><blockquote>成功的试飞对银河来说显然是积极的，但对其股票来说可能并非如此。这次飞行的消息和潜在的好处在很大程度上已经反映在维珍银河的股票中。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4113576958bcf043e56e1c92578d0cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该股今年迄今已上涨约120%，过去12个月上涨超过200%，使这家初创公司的市值约为110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Investors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.</p><p><blockquote>如果该股在成功飞行后周一没有上涨，投资者不应该感到失望。公司的最终价值将在未来决定。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stocks is about 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师喜欢该股便宜的时候。早在9月份，所有研究银河股票的分析师都给予买入评级。标准普尔500指数股票的平均买入评级约为55%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.</p><p><blockquote>9月份股价为25美元。现在，由于该股已飙升至每股50美元以上，只有30%的分析师将该股评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159307278","content_text":"Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling space tourism industry.\nSo long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.\nHere’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.\nWhen Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?\nThe Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the company’s website and on Barron’s below.\nHow High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?\nGalactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.\nBlue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.\nHow Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?\nNothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.\nStill, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes it’s possible that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.\nA move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for $28 million.\nA ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run about $250,000.\nWhat Does the Flight Mean for Investors?\nThe continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.\nOnce fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.\nAnalysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.\nThe flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.\nHow Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?\nA successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.\n\nThe stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.\nInvestors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.\nAnalysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for S&P 500 stocks is about 55%.\nShares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143278744,"gmtCreate":1625798421688,"gmtModify":1631886472316,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143278744","repostId":"2149328127","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143278912,"gmtCreate":1625798389936,"gmtModify":1631886472326,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143278912","repostId":"1195657546","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151568332,"gmtCreate":1625098835126,"gmtModify":1631886472340,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151568332","repostId":"1126325248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126325248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625097519,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126325248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 07:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron sales beat expectations as chip supplies remain tight, prices high<blockquote>由于芯片供应仍然紧张，价格高企，美光销售额超出预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126325248","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) -Micron Technology Inc on Wednesday beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and fo","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Micron Technology Inc on Wednesday beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and forecast fourth-quarter revenue above expectations, as tight supplies of memory chips and continued strong demand kept prices high.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-美光科技公司周三公布的季度利润超出华尔街预期，并预测第四季度营收高于预期，因存储芯片供应紧张和持续强劲的需求使价格保持高位。</blockquote></p><p> The chipmaker forecast current-quarter revenue of $8.2 billion, plus or minus $200 million, while analysts on average were expecting $7.87 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，该芯片制造商预测本季度营收为82亿美元，正负2亿美元，而分析师平均预期为78.7亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Micron makes NAND memory chips that serve the data storage market and DRAM memory chips that are used in data centers, smartphones and other computing devices. It has benefited from the pandemic-induced global shift toward remote work as demand for laptops and other electronic devices soared.</p><p><blockquote>美光生产服务于数据存储市场的NAND存储芯片和用于数据中心、智能手机和其他计算设备的DRAM存储芯片。随着对笔记本电脑和其他电子设备的需求飙升，它受益于大流行引发的全球向远程工作的转变。</blockquote></p><p> In prepared remarks, Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said the company expects industry-wide supplies of both kinds of chips to remain tight until the end of next year, keeping prices high.</p><p><blockquote>美光首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra在事先准备好的讲话中表示，该公司预计这两种芯片的全行业供应将持续紧张，直到明年年底，从而使价格保持高位。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe Micron’s strong financial performance will continue cross-cycle, and over the long term, our revenue growth will outperform the broader semiconductor industry,” Mehrotra said.</p><p><blockquote>Mehrotra表示：“我们相信美光的强劲财务表现将持续跨周期，从长远来看，我们的收入增长将跑赢更广泛的半导体行业。”</blockquote></p><p> The company’s revenue for the third quarter ended June 3 rose 36% to $7.42 billion, beating estimates of $7.24 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，该公司截至6月3日的第三季度营收增长36%至74.2亿美元，超出预期的72.4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding items, the company earned $1.88 per share in the quarter, above estimates of $1.72.</p><p><blockquote>不计项目，该公司本季度每股收益为1.88美元，高于预期的1.72美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company also said it will sell a plant in Lehi, Utah, to Texas Instruments Inc. Micron said it expects to get about $1.5 billion for the plant, $900 million of which will be in cash and $600 million of which will be in the value of tools it can either sell to outsiders or move to its other factories. Micron had said it would sell the Utah facility, which it shared with Intel Corp, under a joint venture formed nearly a decade ago, as part of a broader technology strategy shifthere.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，将把犹他州利希的一家工厂出售给德州仪器公司。美光表示，预计该工厂将获得约15亿美元的资金，其中9亿美元将是现金，6亿美元将是工具的价值，它可以出售给外人，也可以转移到其他工厂。美光科技曾表示，将出售犹他州工厂，该工厂是近十年前成立的合资企业，与英特尔公司共享该工厂，作为更广泛的技术战略转移的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> The company took an impairment charge of $435 million because the $900 million in cash was below the book value of the factory, but Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana told Reuters in an interview that the factory was on track to generate almost $500 million in losses this year because it was underutilized.</p><p><blockquote>该公司计提了4.35亿美元的减值费用，因为9亿美元现金低于工厂的账面价值，但首席商务官Sumit Sadana在接受路透社采访时表示，该工厂今年有望产生近5亿美元的亏损，因为它没有得到充分利用。</blockquote></p><p> Micron also said that its capital expenditures for fiscal 2021 would rise above $9.5 billion, partly driven by pre-payments as it starts to acquire extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines from Dutch maker ASML Holding NV. The machines are necessary for making the most cutting-edge chips but can cost more than $100 million each.</p><p><blockquote>美光还表示，其2021财年的资本支出将超过95亿美元，部分原因是该公司开始从荷兰制造商ASML Holding NV收购极紫外光刻（EUV）机器时的预付款。这些机器是制造最尖端芯片所必需的，但每台机器的成本可能超过1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company stretched out its use of cheaper chipmaker techniques as long as it could but will start using the EUV machines in production in 2024, officials said.</p><p><blockquote>官员们表示，该公司尽可能长时间地使用更便宜的芯片制造技术，但将于2024年开始在生产中使用EUV机器。</blockquote></p><p> “EUV is a very big and important tool in the manufacturing line. And EUV itself is a tool that has a long lead time for manufacturing from ASML. The orders have to be placed just about now,” Sadana said.</p><p><blockquote>“EUV是生产线上一个非常大和重要的工具。而EUV本身是一个从ASML制造的交付周期很长的工具。订单必须在现在就下，”Sadana说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron sales beat expectations as chip supplies remain tight, prices high<blockquote>由于芯片供应仍然紧张，价格高企，美光销售额超出预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron sales beat expectations as chip supplies remain tight, prices high<blockquote>由于芯片供应仍然紧张，价格高企，美光销售额超出预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 07:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) -Micron Technology Inc on Wednesday beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and forecast fourth-quarter revenue above expectations, as tight supplies of memory chips and continued strong demand kept prices high.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-美光科技公司周三公布的季度利润超出华尔街预期，并预测第四季度营收高于预期，因存储芯片供应紧张和持续强劲的需求使价格保持高位。</blockquote></p><p> The chipmaker forecast current-quarter revenue of $8.2 billion, plus or minus $200 million, while analysts on average were expecting $7.87 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，该芯片制造商预测本季度营收为82亿美元，正负2亿美元，而分析师平均预期为78.7亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Micron makes NAND memory chips that serve the data storage market and DRAM memory chips that are used in data centers, smartphones and other computing devices. It has benefited from the pandemic-induced global shift toward remote work as demand for laptops and other electronic devices soared.</p><p><blockquote>美光生产服务于数据存储市场的NAND存储芯片和用于数据中心、智能手机和其他计算设备的DRAM存储芯片。随着对笔记本电脑和其他电子设备的需求飙升，它受益于大流行引发的全球向远程工作的转变。</blockquote></p><p> In prepared remarks, Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said the company expects industry-wide supplies of both kinds of chips to remain tight until the end of next year, keeping prices high.</p><p><blockquote>美光首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra在事先准备好的讲话中表示，该公司预计这两种芯片的全行业供应将持续紧张，直到明年年底，从而使价格保持高位。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe Micron’s strong financial performance will continue cross-cycle, and over the long term, our revenue growth will outperform the broader semiconductor industry,” Mehrotra said.</p><p><blockquote>Mehrotra表示：“我们相信美光的强劲财务表现将持续跨周期，从长远来看，我们的收入增长将跑赢更广泛的半导体行业。”</blockquote></p><p> The company’s revenue for the third quarter ended June 3 rose 36% to $7.42 billion, beating estimates of $7.24 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，该公司截至6月3日的第三季度营收增长36%至74.2亿美元，超出预期的72.4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding items, the company earned $1.88 per share in the quarter, above estimates of $1.72.</p><p><blockquote>不计项目，该公司本季度每股收益为1.88美元，高于预期的1.72美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company also said it will sell a plant in Lehi, Utah, to Texas Instruments Inc. Micron said it expects to get about $1.5 billion for the plant, $900 million of which will be in cash and $600 million of which will be in the value of tools it can either sell to outsiders or move to its other factories. Micron had said it would sell the Utah facility, which it shared with Intel Corp, under a joint venture formed nearly a decade ago, as part of a broader technology strategy shifthere.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，将把犹他州利希的一家工厂出售给德州仪器公司。美光表示，预计该工厂将获得约15亿美元的资金，其中9亿美元将是现金，6亿美元将是工具的价值，它可以出售给外人，也可以转移到其他工厂。美光科技曾表示，将出售犹他州工厂，该工厂是近十年前成立的合资企业，与英特尔公司共享该工厂，作为更广泛的技术战略转移的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> The company took an impairment charge of $435 million because the $900 million in cash was below the book value of the factory, but Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana told Reuters in an interview that the factory was on track to generate almost $500 million in losses this year because it was underutilized.</p><p><blockquote>该公司计提了4.35亿美元的减值费用，因为9亿美元现金低于工厂的账面价值，但首席商务官Sumit Sadana在接受路透社采访时表示，该工厂今年有望产生近5亿美元的亏损，因为它没有得到充分利用。</blockquote></p><p> Micron also said that its capital expenditures for fiscal 2021 would rise above $9.5 billion, partly driven by pre-payments as it starts to acquire extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines from Dutch maker ASML Holding NV. The machines are necessary for making the most cutting-edge chips but can cost more than $100 million each.</p><p><blockquote>美光还表示，其2021财年的资本支出将超过95亿美元，部分原因是该公司开始从荷兰制造商ASML Holding NV收购极紫外光刻（EUV）机器时的预付款。这些机器是制造最尖端芯片所必需的，但每台机器的成本可能超过1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company stretched out its use of cheaper chipmaker techniques as long as it could but will start using the EUV machines in production in 2024, officials said.</p><p><blockquote>官员们表示，该公司尽可能长时间地使用更便宜的芯片制造技术，但将于2024年开始在生产中使用EUV机器。</blockquote></p><p> “EUV is a very big and important tool in the manufacturing line. And EUV itself is a tool that has a long lead time for manufacturing from ASML. The orders have to be placed just about now,” Sadana said.</p><p><blockquote>“EUV是生产线上一个非常大和重要的工具。而EUV本身是一个从ASML制造的交付周期很长的工具。订单必须在现在就下，”Sadana说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/micron-tech-results/update-3-micron-sales-beat-expectations-as-chip-supplies-remain-tight-prices-high-idUSL3N2OC4I1\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/micron-tech-results/update-3-micron-sales-beat-expectations-as-chip-supplies-remain-tight-prices-high-idUSL3N2OC4I1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126325248","content_text":"(Reuters) -Micron Technology Inc on Wednesday beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and forecast fourth-quarter revenue above expectations, as tight supplies of memory chips and continued strong demand kept prices high.\nThe chipmaker forecast current-quarter revenue of $8.2 billion, plus or minus $200 million, while analysts on average were expecting $7.87 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nMicron makes NAND memory chips that serve the data storage market and DRAM memory chips that are used in data centers, smartphones and other computing devices. It has benefited from the pandemic-induced global shift toward remote work as demand for laptops and other electronic devices soared.\nIn prepared remarks, Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said the company expects industry-wide supplies of both kinds of chips to remain tight until the end of next year, keeping prices high.\n“We believe Micron’s strong financial performance will continue cross-cycle, and over the long term, our revenue growth will outperform the broader semiconductor industry,” Mehrotra said.\nThe company’s revenue for the third quarter ended June 3 rose 36% to $7.42 billion, beating estimates of $7.24 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nExcluding items, the company earned $1.88 per share in the quarter, above estimates of $1.72.\nThe company also said it will sell a plant in Lehi, Utah, to Texas Instruments Inc. Micron said it expects to get about $1.5 billion for the plant, $900 million of which will be in cash and $600 million of which will be in the value of tools it can either sell to outsiders or move to its other factories. Micron had said it would sell the Utah facility, which it shared with Intel Corp, under a joint venture formed nearly a decade ago, as part of a broader technology strategy shifthere.\nThe company took an impairment charge of $435 million because the $900 million in cash was below the book value of the factory, but Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana told Reuters in an interview that the factory was on track to generate almost $500 million in losses this year because it was underutilized.\nMicron also said that its capital expenditures for fiscal 2021 would rise above $9.5 billion, partly driven by pre-payments as it starts to acquire extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines from Dutch maker ASML Holding NV. The machines are necessary for making the most cutting-edge chips but can cost more than $100 million each.\nThe company stretched out its use of cheaper chipmaker techniques as long as it could but will start using the EUV machines in production in 2024, officials said.\n“EUV is a very big and important tool in the manufacturing line. And EUV itself is a tool that has a long lead time for manufacturing from ASML. The orders have to be placed just about now,” Sadana said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151587260,"gmtCreate":1625098695950,"gmtModify":1631891311040,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151587260","repostId":"1178516480","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178516480","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625094708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178516480?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 07:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178516480","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as inves","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）-标普500周三连续第五次创下收盘新高，投资者在本月和本季度结束时基本上摆脱了积极的经济数据，并期待周五备受期待的就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> In the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年上半年的最后一个交易日，股指低迷且区间震荡，蓝筹股道指上涨，而纳斯达克则小幅走低。</blockquote></p><p> All three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&amp;P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&amp;P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.</p><p><blockquote>三大指数均连续第五个季度上涨，标准普尔指数上涨8.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨9.5%，道指上涨4.6%。标普500上半年表现为1998年以来第二好，上涨14.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&amp;P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”</p><p><blockquote>“这是一个不错的季度，”康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德Dakota Wealth的高级投资组合经理罗伯特·帕夫利克(Robert Pavlik)表示。“截至昨晚收盘，标普今年迄今已上涨超过14%，超过道指和纳斯达克。这表明股市正在出现广泛反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> For the month, the bellwether S&amp;P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.</p><p><blockquote>本月，领头羊标普500连续第五次上涨，而道琼斯指数结束了四个月的连涨，小幅收低。纳斯达克在6月份也取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p> This month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>本月，投资者的兴趣从对经济敏感的周期性股票转向成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> “Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”</p><p><blockquote>“今年迄今为止的领先行业正如你所预期的那样，”帕夫利克补充道。“能源、金融和工业，这表明经济环境正处于周期的早期阶段。”</blockquote></p><p> “(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.</p><p><blockquote>帕夫利克补充道：“在人们开始接受（美联储主席杰罗姆）鲍威尔关注暂时性通胀的言论后，（投资者）开始转向增长（股票）。”</blockquote></p><p> “Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“一些重新开放的交易已经持续了一段时间，这正在引导人们恢复增长。”</blockquote></p><p> (Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )</p><p><blockquote>（图：6月份成长股跑赢价值股，年初至今差距缩小，）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b82b4dfdc765d913811f9d8572e60f6\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约Inverness Counsel首席投资策略师蒂姆·格里斯基(Tim Ghriskey)表示：“整体股市继续上涨，在相当长一段时间内持续上涨。”“虽然按照历史标准来看估值肯定很高，但受益于经济复苏，估值一直处于相当稳定的水平。”</blockquote></p><p> The private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>根据薪资处理机构ADP的数据，私营部门6月份增加了692,000个就业岗位，轻松超出预期。这一数字比经济学家在劳工部周五发布的更全面的就业报告中预测的私人就业人数高出92,000人。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&amp;P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨210.22点，涨幅0.61%，至34,502.51点；标普500上涨5.7点，涨幅0.13%，至4,297.5点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌24.38点，涨幅0.17%，至14,503.95点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.</p><p><blockquote>在标准普尔11个主要板块中，有6个板块收高，其中能源板块涨幅最大。房地产是当天最大的输家。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.</p><p><blockquote>德国国防部宣布将购买该飞机制造商的五架P-8A海上控制飞机，波音公司股价上涨1.6%，此前联合航空公布了有史以来最大的新飞机订单。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛周二宣布将开始销售仅限处方的胰岛素类似物，股价上涨2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技在季度财报发布前上涨2.5%，但在芯片制造商公布季度业绩后，盘后交易中相对没有变化。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.35比1；在纳斯达克，1.19比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下20个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得70个新高和36个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为108.5亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为110.5亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 07:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）-标普500周三连续第五次创下收盘新高，投资者在本月和本季度结束时基本上摆脱了积极的经济数据，并期待周五备受期待的就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> In the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年上半年的最后一个交易日，股指低迷且区间震荡，蓝筹股道指上涨，而纳斯达克则小幅走低。</blockquote></p><p> All three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&amp;P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&amp;P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.</p><p><blockquote>三大指数均连续第五个季度上涨，标准普尔指数上涨8.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨9.5%，道指上涨4.6%。标普500上半年表现为1998年以来第二好，上涨14.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&amp;P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”</p><p><blockquote>“这是一个不错的季度，”康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德Dakota Wealth的高级投资组合经理罗伯特·帕夫利克(Robert Pavlik)表示。“截至昨晚收盘，标普今年迄今已上涨超过14%，超过道指和纳斯达克。这表明股市正在出现广泛反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> For the month, the bellwether S&amp;P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.</p><p><blockquote>本月，领头羊标普500连续第五次上涨，而道琼斯指数结束了四个月的连涨，小幅收低。纳斯达克在6月份也取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p> This month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>本月，投资者的兴趣从对经济敏感的周期性股票转向成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> “Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”</p><p><blockquote>“今年迄今为止的领先行业正如你所预期的那样，”帕夫利克补充道。“能源、金融和工业，这表明经济环境正处于周期的早期阶段。”</blockquote></p><p> “(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.</p><p><blockquote>帕夫利克补充道：“在人们开始接受（美联储主席杰罗姆）鲍威尔关注暂时性通胀的言论后，（投资者）开始转向增长（股票）。”</blockquote></p><p> “Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“一些重新开放的交易已经持续了一段时间，这正在引导人们恢复增长。”</blockquote></p><p> (Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )</p><p><blockquote>（图：6月份成长股跑赢价值股，年初至今差距缩小，）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b82b4dfdc765d913811f9d8572e60f6\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约Inverness Counsel首席投资策略师蒂姆·格里斯基(Tim Ghriskey)表示：“整体股市继续上涨，在相当长一段时间内持续上涨。”“虽然按照历史标准来看估值肯定很高，但受益于经济复苏，估值一直处于相当稳定的水平。”</blockquote></p><p> The private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>根据薪资处理机构ADP的数据，私营部门6月份增加了692,000个就业岗位，轻松超出预期。这一数字比经济学家在劳工部周五发布的更全面的就业报告中预测的私人就业人数高出92,000人。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&amp;P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨210.22点，涨幅0.61%，至34,502.51点；标普500上涨5.7点，涨幅0.13%，至4,297.5点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌24.38点，涨幅0.17%，至14,503.95点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.</p><p><blockquote>在标准普尔11个主要板块中，有6个板块收高，其中能源板块涨幅最大。房地产是当天最大的输家。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.</p><p><blockquote>德国国防部宣布将购买该飞机制造商的五架P-8A海上控制飞机，波音公司股价上涨1.6%，此前联合航空公布了有史以来最大的新飞机订单。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛周二宣布将开始销售仅限处方的胰岛素类似物，股价上涨2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技在季度财报发布前上涨2.5%，但在芯片制造商公布季度业绩后，盘后交易中相对没有变化。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.35比1；在纳斯达克，1.19比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下20个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得70个新高和36个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为108.5亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为110.5亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178516480","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.\nIn the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.\nAll three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.\n“It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”\nFor the month, the bellwether S&P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.\nThis month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.\n“Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”\n“(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.\n“Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”\n(Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )\n“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”\nThe private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.\nAmong the 11 major sectors in the S&P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.\nBoeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.\nWalmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.\nMicron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124299522,"gmtCreate":1624765490866,"gmtModify":1631891311046,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124299522","repostId":"1172710941","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126617333,"gmtCreate":1624559516122,"gmtModify":1631891311047,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126617333","repostId":"1198422658","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129871096,"gmtCreate":1624369848515,"gmtModify":1631891311050,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129871096","repostId":"1177499959","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129847198,"gmtCreate":1624369789614,"gmtModify":1631891311052,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129847198","repostId":"1187133273","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165490554,"gmtCreate":1624154231078,"gmtModify":1631891311056,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165490554","repostId":"1133385197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165405201,"gmtCreate":1624154140703,"gmtModify":1631891311069,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165405201","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166347366,"gmtCreate":1623993942955,"gmtModify":1631891311069,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment n like","listText":"Comment n like","text":"Comment n like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166347366","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166344644,"gmtCreate":1623993915388,"gmtModify":1631891311065,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166344644","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166342598,"gmtCreate":1623993853014,"gmtModify":1631891311069,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166342598","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":809939355,"gmtCreate":1627343285177,"gmtModify":1631886472244,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Comment","listText":"&nbsp;Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809939355","repostId":"1153028059","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153028059","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627340900,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153028059?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 07:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars<blockquote>特斯拉销量猛增98%；公司提高了成本较低的电动汽车的利润率</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153028059","media":"Reuters","summary":" -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operati","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-特斯拉公司周二公布的第二季度利润高于预期，这得益于其较便宜的电动汽车销量大幅增长，该公司提高了价格以提高其利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉还削减了成本，这有助于抵消汽车行业面临的许多供应链和微芯片短缺问题。</blockquote></p><p> For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年底以来，特斯拉的利润首次不依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售环境信用，这表明制造业务的财务状况日益健康。特斯拉通过削减其称未使用或不需要的功能以及提高美国汽车价格来提高其业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.</p><p><blockquote>这家全球最有价值汽车制造商的股价在盘后交易中上涨1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.</p><p><blockquote>在与投资者和分析师的看涨期权中，特斯拉高管表示，量产增长将取决于零部件供应情况，马斯克警告称，半导体短缺将持续。</blockquote></p><p> “The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.</p><p><blockquote>“全球芯片短缺的情况仍然相当严重，”马斯克说。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Musk表示，特斯拉预计今年将在德克萨斯和德意志的在建工厂投产Model Y SUV。他表示，该公司预计电池供应商明年的产量将翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临疫情和供应链危机，但得益于Model 3轿车和Model Y等更便宜车型的销售，特斯拉在本季度的交付量仍创下了纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这家由亿万富翁企业家埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)领导的汽车制造商表示，收入从一年前的60.4亿美元跃升至119.6亿美元，当时其加州工厂因当地抗击疫情的封锁令而关闭了六周多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，分析师此前预计营收约为113亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.</p><p><blockquote>剔除项目后，特斯拉公布的每股利润为1.45美元，轻松超过分析师预期的每股98美分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，营业收入随着销量增长和成本降低而上升，这抵消了供应链成本上升、监管信贷收入下降和其他项目，包括加密货币比特币投资损失2300万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的盈利能力通常依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售监管信用，但在第二季度，特斯拉自2019年底以来首次在没有这些信用的情况下实现盈利。其第二季度GAAP净利润为11.4亿美元。这些积分的收入总计仅为3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.</p><p><blockquote>Investing.com高级分析师Jesse Cohen表示：“特斯拉对其数据印象深刻，因为其大部分收入来自汽车销售。”</blockquote></p><p> Carmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商Stellantis预计今年将在没有从特斯拉购买环境信用额的情况下实现其欧洲二氧化碳(CO2)排放目标。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，由于今年电池和其他零部件的供应有限，该公司已将Semi卡车计划的启动推迟到2022年，以专注于启动工厂。</blockquote></p><p> But the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>但该公司的新型4680电池尚未准备好量产；高管们表示，很难预测技术挑战何时能得到解决。</blockquote></p><p> In an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，马斯克表示，他“很可能不会在财报评级上”与投资者和分析师讨论财务业绩。这些评级是马斯克每季度举行的一次丰富多彩的仪式，马斯克用它来讨论特斯拉技术，或者回击竞争对手或批评者。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars<blockquote>特斯拉销量猛增98%；公司提高了成本较低的电动汽车的利润率</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla sales surge 98%; company boosts margins on its less-costly electric cars<blockquote>特斯拉销量猛增98%；公司提高了成本较低的电动汽车的利润率</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 07:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-特斯拉公司周二公布的第二季度利润高于预期，这得益于其较便宜的电动汽车销量大幅增长，该公司提高了价格以提高其利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉还削减了成本，这有助于抵消汽车行业面临的许多供应链和微芯片短缺问题。</blockquote></p><p> For the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年底以来，特斯拉的利润首次不依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售环境信用，这表明制造业务的财务状况日益健康。特斯拉通过削减其称未使用或不需要的功能以及提高美国汽车价格来提高其业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.</p><p><blockquote>这家全球最有价值汽车制造商的股价在盘后交易中上涨1.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.</p><p><blockquote>在与投资者和分析师的看涨期权中，特斯拉高管表示，量产增长将取决于零部件供应情况，马斯克警告称，半导体短缺将持续。</blockquote></p><p> “The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.</p><p><blockquote>“全球芯片短缺的情况仍然相当严重，”马斯克说。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Musk表示，特斯拉预计今年将在德克萨斯和德意志的在建工厂投产Model Y SUV。他表示，该公司预计电池供应商明年的产量将翻一番。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.</p><p><blockquote>尽管面临疫情和供应链危机，但得益于Model 3轿车和Model Y等更便宜车型的销售，特斯拉在本季度的交付量仍创下了纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>这家由亿万富翁企业家埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)领导的汽车制造商表示，收入从一年前的60.4亿美元跃升至119.6亿美元，当时其加州工厂因当地抗击疫情的封锁令而关闭了六周多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，分析师此前预计营收约为113亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.</p><p><blockquote>剔除项目后，特斯拉公布的每股利润为1.45美元，轻松超过分析师预期的每股98美分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，营业收入随着销量增长和成本降低而上升，这抵消了供应链成本上升、监管信贷收入下降和其他项目，包括加密货币比特币投资损失2300万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的盈利能力通常依赖于向其他汽车制造商出售监管信用，但在第二季度，特斯拉自2019年底以来首次在没有这些信用的情况下实现盈利。其第二季度GAAP净利润为11.4亿美元。这些积分的收入总计仅为3.54亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.</p><p><blockquote>Investing.com高级分析师Jesse Cohen表示：“特斯拉对其数据印象深刻，因为其大部分收入来自汽车销售。”</blockquote></p><p> Carmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>汽车制造商Stellantis预计今年将在没有从特斯拉购买环境信用额的情况下实现其欧洲二氧化碳(CO2)排放目标。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉表示，由于今年电池和其他零部件的供应有限，该公司已将Semi卡车计划的启动推迟到2022年，以专注于启动工厂。</blockquote></p><p> But the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.</p><p><blockquote>但该公司的新型4680电池尚未准备好量产；高管们表示，很难预测技术挑战何时能得到解决。</blockquote></p><p> In an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.</p><p><blockquote>顺便说一句，马斯克表示，他“很可能不会在财报评级上”与投资者和分析师讨论财务业绩。这些评级是马斯克每季度举行的一次丰富多彩的仪式，马斯克用它来讨论特斯拉技术，或者回击竞争对手或批评者。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-results/update-4-tesla-sales-surge-98-company-boosts-margins-on-its-less-costly-electric-cars-idUSL4N2P23I5\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/tesla-results/update-4-tesla-sales-surge-98-company-boosts-margins-on-its-less-costly-electric-cars-idUSL4N2P23I5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153028059","content_text":"(Reuters) -Tesla Inc posted a bigger second-quarter profit than expected on Tuesday thanks to sharply higher sales of its less-expensive electric vehicles, as it raised prices to boost its margins on them.\nTesla also cut costs which helped it offset many of the supply chain and microchip shortfalls facing the auto industry.\nFor the first time since late 2019, Tesla profits did not rely on sales of environmental credits to other automakers, a sign of increasing financial health for the manufacturing operation. Tesla boosted its performance by cutting features it said were unused or unneeded and raising U.S. vehicle prices.\nShares of the world’s most valuable automaker rose 1.5% in extended trade.\nIn a call with investors and analysts, Tesla executives said that volume production growth will depend on parts availability, and Musk cautioned the shortage of semiconductors will continue.\n“The global chip shortage situation remains quite serious,” Musk said.\nStill, Musk said Tesla expects to launch production this year of the Model Y SUV at factories under construction in Texas and Germany. He said the company expects battery cell suppliers to double production next year.\nDespite the pandemic and the supply chain crisis, Tesla posted record deliveries during the quarter, thanks to sales of cheaper models including Model 3 sedans and Model Ys.\nThe carmaker, led by billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk, said revenue jumped to $11.96 billion from $6.04 billion a year earlier, when its California factory was shut down for more than six weeks due to local lockdown orders to fight the pandemic.\nAnalysts had expected revenue of about $11.3 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nExcluding items, Tesla posted a profit of $1.45 per share, easily topping analyst expectations for a profit of 98 cents per share.\nTesla said operating income rose with volume growth and cost reduction, which offset higher supply chain costs, lower regulatory credit revenue and other items including $23 million in losses on investment in cryptocurrency bitcoin.\nTesla’s profitability has often relied on selling regulatory credits to other automakers, but in the second quarter, Tesla was profitable without these credits for the first time since the end of 2019. Its GAAP net income was $1.14 billion in the second quarter. Revenue from the credits only totaled $354 million.\n“Tesla impressed with its numbers, as most of its revenue came from vehicle sales,” Jesse Cohen, senior analyst at Investing.com, said.\nCarmaker Stellantis expects to achieve its European carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions targets this year without environmental credits bought from Tesla.\nTesla said it said it has delayed the launch of the Semi truck program to 2022 to focus on starting factories and due to limited availability of battery cells and other parts this year.\nBut the company’s new 4680 batteries are not ready for volume production; executives said it was difficult to predict when technological challenges would be resolved.\nIn an aside, Musk said he “most likely will not be on earnings calls” going forward to discuss financial results with investors and analysts. These calls have been a colorful quarterly ritual Musk has used for discourses on Tesla technology, or to fire back at rivals or critics.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1339,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802092266,"gmtCreate":1627697863555,"gmtModify":1631886472235,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802092266","repostId":"1106964638","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175215167,"gmtCreate":1627034119359,"gmtModify":1631886472272,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175215167","repostId":"1123663609","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145867113,"gmtCreate":1626218170132,"gmtModify":1631886472293,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment&nbsp;","listText":"Comment&nbsp;","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145867113","repostId":"2151560584","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143278912,"gmtCreate":1625798389936,"gmtModify":1631886472326,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143278912","repostId":"1195657546","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151587260,"gmtCreate":1625098695950,"gmtModify":1631891311040,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151587260","repostId":"1178516480","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178516480","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625094708,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1178516480?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 07:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178516480","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as inves","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）-标普500周三连续第五次创下收盘新高，投资者在本月和本季度结束时基本上摆脱了积极的经济数据，并期待周五备受期待的就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> In the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年上半年的最后一个交易日，股指低迷且区间震荡，蓝筹股道指上涨，而纳斯达克则小幅走低。</blockquote></p><p> All three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&amp;P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&amp;P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.</p><p><blockquote>三大指数均连续第五个季度上涨，标准普尔指数上涨8.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨9.5%，道指上涨4.6%。标普500上半年表现为1998年以来第二好，上涨14.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&amp;P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”</p><p><blockquote>“这是一个不错的季度，”康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德Dakota Wealth的高级投资组合经理罗伯特·帕夫利克(Robert Pavlik)表示。“截至昨晚收盘，标普今年迄今已上涨超过14%，超过道指和纳斯达克。这表明股市正在出现广泛反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> For the month, the bellwether S&amp;P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.</p><p><blockquote>本月，领头羊标普500连续第五次上涨，而道琼斯指数结束了四个月的连涨，小幅收低。纳斯达克在6月份也取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p> This month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>本月，投资者的兴趣从对经济敏感的周期性股票转向成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> “Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”</p><p><blockquote>“今年迄今为止的领先行业正如你所预期的那样，”帕夫利克补充道。“能源、金融和工业，这表明经济环境正处于周期的早期阶段。”</blockquote></p><p> “(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.</p><p><blockquote>帕夫利克补充道：“在人们开始接受（美联储主席杰罗姆）鲍威尔关注暂时性通胀的言论后，（投资者）开始转向增长（股票）。”</blockquote></p><p> “Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“一些重新开放的交易已经持续了一段时间，这正在引导人们恢复增长。”</blockquote></p><p> (Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )</p><p><blockquote>（图：6月份成长股跑赢价值股，年初至今差距缩小，）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b82b4dfdc765d913811f9d8572e60f6\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约Inverness Counsel首席投资策略师蒂姆·格里斯基(Tim Ghriskey)表示：“整体股市继续上涨，在相当长一段时间内持续上涨。”“虽然按照历史标准来看估值肯定很高，但受益于经济复苏，估值一直处于相当稳定的水平。”</blockquote></p><p> The private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>根据薪资处理机构ADP的数据，私营部门6月份增加了692,000个就业岗位，轻松超出预期。这一数字比经济学家在劳工部周五发布的更全面的就业报告中预测的私人就业人数高出92,000人。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&amp;P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨210.22点，涨幅0.61%，至34,502.51点；标普500上涨5.7点，涨幅0.13%，至4,297.5点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌24.38点，涨幅0.17%，至14,503.95点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.</p><p><blockquote>在标准普尔11个主要板块中，有6个板块收高，其中能源板块涨幅最大。房地产是当天最大的输家。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.</p><p><blockquote>德国国防部宣布将购买该飞机制造商的五架P-8A海上控制飞机，波音公司股价上涨1.6%，此前联合航空公布了有史以来最大的新飞机订单。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛周二宣布将开始销售仅限处方的胰岛素类似物，股价上涨2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技在季度财报发布前上涨2.5%，但在芯片制造商公布季度业绩后，盘后交易中相对没有变化。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.35比1；在纳斯达克，1.19比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下20个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得70个新高和36个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为108.5亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为110.5亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 07:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）-标普500周三连续第五次创下收盘新高，投资者在本月和本季度结束时基本上摆脱了积极的经济数据，并期待周五备受期待的就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> In the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年上半年的最后一个交易日，股指低迷且区间震荡，蓝筹股道指上涨，而纳斯达克则小幅走低。</blockquote></p><p> All three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&amp;P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&amp;P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.</p><p><blockquote>三大指数均连续第五个季度上涨，标准普尔指数上涨8.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨9.5%，道指上涨4.6%。标普500上半年表现为1998年以来第二好，上涨14.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&amp;P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”</p><p><blockquote>“这是一个不错的季度，”康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德Dakota Wealth的高级投资组合经理罗伯特·帕夫利克(Robert Pavlik)表示。“截至昨晚收盘，标普今年迄今已上涨超过14%，超过道指和纳斯达克。这表明股市正在出现广泛反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> For the month, the bellwether S&amp;P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.</p><p><blockquote>本月，领头羊标普500连续第五次上涨，而道琼斯指数结束了四个月的连涨，小幅收低。纳斯达克在6月份也取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p> This month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>本月，投资者的兴趣从对经济敏感的周期性股票转向成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> “Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”</p><p><blockquote>“今年迄今为止的领先行业正如你所预期的那样，”帕夫利克补充道。“能源、金融和工业，这表明经济环境正处于周期的早期阶段。”</blockquote></p><p> “(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.</p><p><blockquote>帕夫利克补充道：“在人们开始接受（美联储主席杰罗姆）鲍威尔关注暂时性通胀的言论后，（投资者）开始转向增长（股票）。”</blockquote></p><p> “Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“一些重新开放的交易已经持续了一段时间，这正在引导人们恢复增长。”</blockquote></p><p> (Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )</p><p><blockquote>（图：6月份成长股跑赢价值股，年初至今差距缩小，）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b82b4dfdc765d913811f9d8572e60f6\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约Inverness Counsel首席投资策略师蒂姆·格里斯基(Tim Ghriskey)表示：“整体股市继续上涨，在相当长一段时间内持续上涨。”“虽然按照历史标准来看估值肯定很高，但受益于经济复苏，估值一直处于相当稳定的水平。”</blockquote></p><p> The private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>根据薪资处理机构ADP的数据，私营部门6月份增加了692,000个就业岗位，轻松超出预期。这一数字比经济学家在劳工部周五发布的更全面的就业报告中预测的私人就业人数高出92,000人。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&amp;P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨210.22点，涨幅0.61%，至34,502.51点；标普500上涨5.7点，涨幅0.13%，至4,297.5点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌24.38点，涨幅0.17%，至14,503.95点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.</p><p><blockquote>在标准普尔11个主要板块中，有6个板块收高，其中能源板块涨幅最大。房地产是当天最大的输家。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.</p><p><blockquote>德国国防部宣布将购买该飞机制造商的五架P-8A海上控制飞机，波音公司股价上涨1.6%，此前联合航空公布了有史以来最大的新飞机订单。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛周二宣布将开始销售仅限处方的胰岛素类似物，股价上涨2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技在季度财报发布前上涨2.5%，但在芯片制造商公布季度业绩后，盘后交易中相对没有变化。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨股与下跌股的比例为1.35比1；在纳斯达克，1.19比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下20个52周新高，无新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得70个新高和36个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所成交量为108.5亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为110.5亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178516480","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.\nIn the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.\nAll three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.\n“It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”\nFor the month, the bellwether S&P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.\nThis month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.\n“Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”\n“(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.\n“Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”\n(Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )\n“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”\nThe private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.\nAmong the 11 major sectors in the S&P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.\nBoeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.\nWalmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.\nMicron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124299522,"gmtCreate":1624765490866,"gmtModify":1631891311046,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124299522","repostId":"1172710941","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":432,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126617333,"gmtCreate":1624559516122,"gmtModify":1631891311047,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126617333","repostId":"1198422658","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177800781,"gmtCreate":1627191608543,"gmtModify":1631886472259,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177800781","repostId":"1115106146","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148964098,"gmtCreate":1625918290214,"gmtModify":1631886472306,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148964098","repostId":"1159307278","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1159307278","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625873648,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1159307278?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 07:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159307278","media":"Barrons","summary":"Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling s","content":"<p>Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the&nbsp;fledgling space tourism industry.</p><p><blockquote>理查德·布兰森计划于周日飞往太空，这对于刚刚起步的太空旅游业来说可能是一个里程碑式的时刻。</blockquote></p><p> So long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.</p><p><blockquote>只要没有问题或延误，这次飞行将带着70岁的维珍银河（股票代码：SPCE）创始人、公司任务专家和飞行员进行首次客运太空之旅，击败杰夫·贝索斯的蓝色起源客运航班一周多。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.</p><p><blockquote>以下是周日值得关注的内容，以及一些最近的历史。</blockquote></p><p> <b>When Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河太空飞行什么时候起飞？</b></blockquote></p><p> The Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the&nbsp;company’s website&nbsp;and on&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;below.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河Unity 22太空飞行预计将于东部时间上午9点左右从新墨西哥州的维珍航天港发射。此次发布会可以在公司网站和下面的《巴伦周刊》上进行现场直播。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客会飞到多高的太空？</b></blockquote></p><p> Galactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.</p><p><blockquote>银河的VSS Unity航天器将达到约3马赫的速度，即音速的三倍，并上升到约30万英尺，即57英里。这大约是许多商业飞行的10倍，但仍然被认为是太空的边缘。亚轨道飞行不会通过所谓的卡门线，这是科学家用来定义外太空边界的。那条线大约在62英里处。</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源计划让乘客在航班上经过卡门线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客为这次旅行支付了多少钱？</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.</p><p><blockquote>没有。虽然这次飞行可能是太空旅游向前迈出的又一步，但预计的机组人员是银河员工和布兰森。加入公司创始人的将是两名飞行员；贝丝·摩西，首席宇航员教练；Colin Bennett，首席运营工程师；以及政府事务和研究运营副总裁Sirisha Bandla。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes&nbsp;it’s possible&nbsp;that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，布兰森对宣传并不陌生。Canaccord分析师肯·赫伯特(Ken Herbert)认为，银河有可能通过布兰森带来付费客户来给观众带来惊喜。这将为公司带来额外的轰动。</blockquote></p><p> A move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for&nbsp;$28 million.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措将以另一种方式击败太空旅游竞争对手蓝色起源。贝佐斯预计将在本月晚些时候乘坐他的航班将第一位付费乘客送往太空。那个座位以2800万美元的价格被拍卖。</blockquote></p><p> A ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run&nbsp;about $250,000.</p><p><blockquote>未来维珍银河航班的机票价格约为25万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Does the Flight Mean for Investors?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外逃对投资者意味着什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> The continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.</p><p><blockquote>飞行测试的继续使Galactic离完全商业化又近了一步，这意味着未来的销售和盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Once fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.</p><p><blockquote>一旦全面投入使用，每艘银河飞船预计每年将进行大约36次飞行。大多数银河飞船都有大约六个座位出售。满负荷运转时，每艘宇宙飞船每年的费用约为5400万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，银河2021年的销售额约为300万美元，2022年将增长至5100万美元，到2025年将增长至5.55亿美元。盈利和现金流预计将在2024年左右转正。</blockquote></p><p> The flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.</p><p><blockquote>该航班和相关新闻报道也代表了公司的宣传。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河股票将如何受益？</b></blockquote></p><p> A successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.</p><p><blockquote>成功的试飞对银河来说显然是积极的，但对其股票来说可能并非如此。这次飞行的消息和潜在的好处在很大程度上已经反映在维珍银河的股票中。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4113576958bcf043e56e1c92578d0cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该股今年迄今已上涨约120%，过去12个月上涨超过200%，使这家初创公司的市值约为110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Investors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.</p><p><blockquote>如果该股在成功飞行后周一没有上涨，投资者不应该感到失望。公司的最终价值将在未来决定。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stocks is about 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师喜欢该股便宜的时候。早在9月份，所有研究银河股票的分析师都给予买入评级。标准普尔500指数股票的平均买入评级约为55%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.</p><p><blockquote>9月份股价为25美元。现在，由于该股已飙升至每股50美元以上，只有30%的分析师将该股评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Things to Know About Virgin Galactic and the First Passenger Flight to Space<blockquote>关于维珍银河和首次客运太空飞行需要了解的5件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 07:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the&nbsp;fledgling space tourism industry.</p><p><blockquote>理查德·布兰森计划于周日飞往太空，这对于刚刚起步的太空旅游业来说可能是一个里程碑式的时刻。</blockquote></p><p> So long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of&nbsp;Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.</p><p><blockquote>只要没有问题或延误，这次飞行将带着70岁的维珍银河（股票代码：SPCE）创始人、公司任务专家和飞行员进行首次客运太空之旅，击败杰夫·贝索斯的蓝色起源客运航班一周多。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.</p><p><blockquote>以下是周日值得关注的内容，以及一些最近的历史。</blockquote></p><p> <b>When Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河太空飞行什么时候起飞？</b></blockquote></p><p> The Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the&nbsp;company’s website&nbsp;and on&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;below.</p><p><blockquote>维珍银河Unity 22太空飞行预计将于东部时间上午9点左右从新墨西哥州的维珍航天港发射。此次发布会可以在公司网站和下面的《巴伦周刊》上进行现场直播。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客会飞到多高的太空？</b></blockquote></p><p> Galactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.</p><p><blockquote>银河的VSS Unity航天器将达到约3马赫的速度，即音速的三倍，并上升到约30万英尺，即57英里。这大约是许多商业飞行的10倍，但仍然被认为是太空的边缘。亚轨道飞行不会通过所谓的卡门线，这是科学家用来定义外太空边界的。那条线大约在62英里处。</blockquote></p><p> Blue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.</p><p><blockquote>蓝色起源计划让乘客在航班上经过卡门线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>乘客为这次旅行支付了多少钱？</b></blockquote></p><p> Nothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.</p><p><blockquote>没有。虽然这次飞行可能是太空旅游向前迈出的又一步，但预计的机组人员是银河员工和布兰森。加入公司创始人的将是两名飞行员；贝丝·摩西，首席宇航员教练；Colin Bennett，首席运营工程师；以及政府事务和研究运营副总裁Sirisha Bandla。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes&nbsp;it’s possible&nbsp;that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，布兰森对宣传并不陌生。Canaccord分析师肯·赫伯特(Ken Herbert)认为，银河有可能通过布兰森带来付费客户来给观众带来惊喜。这将为公司带来额外的轰动。</blockquote></p><p> A move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for&nbsp;$28 million.</p><p><blockquote>这样的举措将以另一种方式击败太空旅游竞争对手蓝色起源。贝佐斯预计将在本月晚些时候乘坐他的航班将第一位付费乘客送往太空。那个座位以2800万美元的价格被拍卖。</blockquote></p><p> A ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run&nbsp;about $250,000.</p><p><blockquote>未来维珍银河航班的机票价格约为25万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Does the Flight Mean for Investors?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外逃对投资者意味着什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> The continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.</p><p><blockquote>飞行测试的继续使Galactic离完全商业化又近了一步，这意味着未来的销售和盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Once fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.</p><p><blockquote>一旦全面投入使用，每艘银河飞船预计每年将进行大约36次飞行。大多数银河飞船都有大约六个座位出售。满负荷运转时，每艘宇宙飞船每年的费用约为5400万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计，银河2021年的销售额约为300万美元，2022年将增长至5100万美元，到2025年将增长至5.55亿美元。盈利和现金流预计将在2024年左右转正。</blockquote></p><p> The flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.</p><p><blockquote>该航班和相关新闻报道也代表了公司的宣传。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>维珍银河股票将如何受益？</b></blockquote></p><p> A successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.</p><p><blockquote>成功的试飞对银河来说显然是积极的，但对其股票来说可能并非如此。这次飞行的消息和潜在的好处在很大程度上已经反映在维珍银河的股票中。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4113576958bcf043e56e1c92578d0cc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该股今年迄今已上涨约120%，过去12个月上涨超过200%，使这家初创公司的市值约为110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Investors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.</p><p><blockquote>如果该股在成功飞行后周一没有上涨，投资者不应该感到失望。公司的最终价值将在未来决定。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;stocks is about 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师喜欢该股便宜的时候。早在9月份，所有研究银河股票的分析师都给予买入评级。标准普尔500指数股票的平均买入评级约为55%。</blockquote></p><p> Shares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.</p><p><blockquote>9月份股价为25美元。现在，由于该股已飙升至每股50美元以上，只有30%的分析师将该股评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPCE":"维珍银河"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/virgin-galactic-richard-branson-space-flight-51625848364?mod=hp_LEAD_4","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159307278","content_text":"Richard Branson’s planned flight to space on Sunday could be a monumental moment for the fledgling space tourism industry.\nSo long as there are no issues or delays, the flight will take the 70-year-old founder of Virgin Galactic(ticker: SPCE), company mission specialists, and pilots, on the first passenger trip to space, beating Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin passenger flight by more than a week.\nHere’s what to watch for Sunday, along with some recent history.\nWhen Will the Virgin Galactic Space Flight Take Off?\nThe Virgin Galactic Unity 22 spaceflight is expected to launch from Virgin’s spaceport in New Mexico around 9 a.m. eastern time. The launch can be streamed live on the company’s website and on Barron’s below.\nHow High Up in Space Will Passenger Go?\nGalactic’s VSS Unity spacecraft will hit speeds of about Mach 3, or three times the speed of sound, and rise to about 300,000 feet, or 57 miles. That’s about 10 times as high as many commercial flights but still considered the edge of space. The suborbital flight will not pass the so-called Karman line, which is what scientists use to define the boundary of outer space. That line is about 62 miles up.\nBlue Origin plans to take its passengers past the Karman line on its flight.\nHow Much Did Passengers Pay for the Trip?\nNothing. While this flight could be another step forward for space tourism, the expected crew members are Galactic employees and Branson. Joining the company’s founder on board will be two pilots; Beth Moses, chief astronaut instructor; Colin Bennett, lead operations engineer; and Sirisha Bandla, vice president of government affairs and research operations.\nStill, Branson is no stranger to publicity. Canaccord analyst Ken Herbert believes it’s possible that Galactic could surprise viewers by bringing a paying customer on board with Branson. That would generate additional buzz for the company.\nA move like that would best space-tourism competitor Blue Origin in another way. Bezos is expected to take the first paying passenger to space on his flight later this month. That seat was auctioned off for $28 million.\nA ticket on a future Virgin Galactic flight will run about $250,000.\nWhat Does the Flight Mean for Investors?\nThe continuation of flight tests brings Galactic one step closer to full commercialization, which means sales and, hopefully, earnings down the road.\nOnce fully operational, each Galactic spaceship is expected to make roughly 36 flights a year. Most Galactic spaceships have about six seats for sale. At full capacity, that’s about $54 million per spaceship a year.\nAnalysts expect Galactic to do about $3 million in 2021 sales, growing to $51 million in 2022 and $555 million by 2025. Earnings and cash flow are expected to turn positive around 2024.\nThe flight and associated news coverage also represent publicity for the company.\nHow Will Virgin Galactic Stock Benefit?\nA successful test flight is a clear positive for Galactic, but it might not be so for its stock. The news of the flight and the potential benefits are, for the most part, already priced into shares of Virgin Galactic.\n\nThe stock is up roughly 120% year to date and up more than 200% over the past 12 months, giving the start-up a market capitalization of around $11 billion.\nInvestors shouldn’t be disappointed if the stock doesn’t gain on Monday following a successful flight. The ultimate value of the company will be determined down the road.\nAnalysts loved the stock when it was cheaper. Back in September, all analysts covering Galactic rated shares Buy. Theaverage Buy-ratingratio for S&P 500 stocks is about 55%.\nShares were $25 in September. Now, only 30% of analysts rate shares Buy as the stock has rocketed north of $50 a share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170076201,"gmtCreate":1626397714703,"gmtModify":1631886472282,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170076201","repostId":"1143835393","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143835393","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626396523,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143835393?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-16 08:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cramer's Mad Money Recap: Why Stocks Are Going Down<blockquote>克莱默的疯狂金钱回顾：股市为何下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143835393","media":"The Street","summary":"Jim Cramer says it's not so much about the economy as it is the simple rules of supply and demand. T","content":"<p>  Jim Cramer says it's not so much about the economy as it is the simple rules of supply and demand. There's not enough cash to buy everything.  There are a lot of theories on why stocks are going down, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Thursday, but there's only one theory that's correct. As he noted on last night's show, too often investors can't see the forest for the trees instead focusing on the economy rather than the fundamentals of supply and demand.</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·克莱默说，这与其说是经济的问题，不如说是简单的供求规则。没有足够的现金买所有的东西。吉姆·克莱默周四对《Mad Money》观众表示，关于股市下跌的原因有很多理论，但只有一种理论是正确的。正如他在昨晚的节目中指出的那样，投资者往往只见树木不见森林，而是关注经济而不是供需基本面。</blockquote></p><p> For example, many investors are taking their cue from the bond markets, which are far bigger than stocks. They have all sorts of theories as to why bond yields are plunging.</p><p><blockquote>例如，许多投资者从债券市场中得到启示，债券市场的规模远远大于股票。对于债券收益率暴跌的原因，他们有各种各样的理论。</blockquote></p><p> Is it because our rates are better than the rest of the world? Is it because Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell is right and inflation is only transitory? Or is it because we're about to see a slowdown in our economy?</p><p><blockquote>是因为我们的利率比世界其他地方好吗？是因为美联储主席鲍威尔是对的，通胀只是暂时的吗？还是因为我们即将看到经济放缓？</blockquote></p><p> Cramer said while he does believe that Powell is correct and inflation is transitory, none of these reasons really explain the action in bonds or in the stock market. What does explain the action, however, is supply and demand.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默表示，虽然他确实相信鲍威尔是正确的，通胀是暂时的，但这些原因都不能真正解释债券或股市的走势。然而，解释这一行为的是供给和需求。</blockquote></p><p> For months now, the markets have been flooded with new offerings in the form of IPOs and SPACs, and the market has increasingly struggled to absorb them all. Eventually, as it always does, supply outstrips demand and prices plunge, just as they are now. There's simply not enough cash to buy everything.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，市场上充斥着IPO和SPAC形式的新产品，市场越来越难以吸收所有这些产品。最终，一如既往，供大于求，价格暴跌，就像现在一样。根本没有足够的现金买所有的东西。</blockquote></p><p> So while everyone has their theories, the truth is that employment is strong and inflation is waning. But when it comes to IPOs, the cycle has simply run its course.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管每个人都有自己的理论，但事实是就业强劲，通胀正在减弱。但当涉及到首次公开募股时，这个周期已经结束了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多</b></blockquote></p><p> In a special interview, Cramer welcomed back Gina Raimondo, U.S. Secretary of Commerce, for an update on the White House's economic plans to keep the economy moving forward. President Biden's latest plans include a $600 billion infrastructure package to rebuild roads, bridges and the nation's power grid, and a $3.5 trillion budget proposal that includes universal pre-kindergarten and two-year community college, among other priorities.</p><p><blockquote>在一次特别采访中，克莱默欢迎美国商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多回来，介绍白宫保持经济发展的经济计划的最新情况。拜登总统的最新计划包括一项6000亿美元的基础设施计划，用于重建道路、桥梁和国家电网，以及一项3.5万亿美元的预算提案，其中包括普及学前教育和两年制社区大学等优先事项。</blockquote></p><p> Raimondo said there are still millions of women out of the workforce because they're struggling with childcare and elder care. That's why the latest proposals include investments in caregiving as well as universal kindergarten to give all of our children a head start on their education.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙多说，仍有数百万女性失业，因为她们在照顾孩子和照顾老人方面苦苦挣扎。这就是为什么最新的提案包括对护理和普及幼儿园的投资，让我们所有的孩子在教育上有一个良好的开端。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Raimondo said we need to invest more in digital literacy and digital skills for our modern world. That includes getting more girls and minorities involved in data science so they can compete on a global stage.</p><p><blockquote>此外，雷蒙多表示，我们需要在现代世界的数字素养和数字技能方面进行更多投资。这包括让更多的女孩和少数族裔参与数据科学，以便他们能够在全球舞台上竞争。</blockquote></p><p> When asked about supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic, Raimondo called out Friday's scheduled meeting at the White House, which will include the home building and construction industries, that aims to address shortages in lumber and other building supplies. If we can produce more, prices will decline, Raimondo said, and that's the goal.</p><p><blockquote>当被问及疫情造成的供应链中断时，雷蒙多呼吁周五在白宫举行会议，会议将包括住宅建筑和建筑业，旨在解决木材和其他建筑用品的短缺问题。雷蒙多说，如果我们能够生产更多，价格就会下降，这就是我们的目标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bull in the Second-Hand Shop</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二手店里的公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> There's a new long-term bull market brewing in the secondhand marketplace, Cramer told viewers, and it's time to compare the players and pick a winner. The contenders include Poshmark&nbsp;(<b>POSH</b>) -Get Report, ThredUp&nbsp;(<b>TDUP</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and RealReal&nbsp;(<b>REAL</b>) -Get Report, along with Etsy&nbsp;(<b>ETSY</b>) -Get Report, which just purchased Depop for $1.6 billion, and the king of secondhand goods, eBay&nbsp;(<b>EBAY</b>) -Get Report.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默告诉观众，二手市场正在酝酿一个新的长期牛市，现在是时候比较参与者并选出赢家了。竞争者包括Poshmark（<b>豪华</b>)-获取报告，ThredUp(<b>TDUP</b>)-获取报告和RealReal(<b>真的</b>)-获取报告，以及Etsy(<b>ETSY</b>）——刚刚以16亿美元收购Depop的Get Report和二手商品之王eBay（<b>EBAY</b>)-获取报告。</blockquote></p><p> For comparison, eBay is clearly the largest, with 187 million buyers around the globe. EBay is followed by Poshmark at seven million, Etsy with four million, ThredUp at 1.3 million and RealReal with just 700,000.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，eBay显然是最大的，在全球拥有1.87亿买家。紧随EBay之后的是Poshmark（700万）、Etsy（400万）、ThredUp（130万）和RealReal（仅70万）。</blockquote></p><p> Cramer said with 42% revenue growth, his favorite in the space is PoshMark, which appeared recently on the show. He said both eBay and Etsy remain fabulous companies as well, but Poshmark has the growth. ThredUp simply isn't that exciting at just 15% growth, he said, and RealReal is still recovering from its authenticity issues surrounding counterfeit items on its platform.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默表示，随着42%的收入增长，他在该领域最喜欢的是最近出现在节目中的PoshMark。他表示，eBay和Etsy仍然是出色的公司，但Poshmark取得了增长。他表示，ThredUp仅增长了15%，这并不令人兴奋，RealReal仍在从围绕其平台上假冒商品的真实性问题中恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Executive Decision:&nbsp;Corsair Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>行政决定：Corsair Gaming</b></blockquote></p><p> In his \"Executive Decision\" segment, Cramer spoke with Andy Paul, co-founder and CEO of Corsair Gaming&nbsp;(<b>CRSR</b>) -Get Report, makers of high-end gaming peripherals.</p><p><blockquote>在“行政决策”部分，克莱默采访了Corsair Gaming联合创始人兼首席执行官安迪·保罗（Andy Paul）（<b>CRSR</b>）-获取报告，高端游戏外设制造商。</blockquote></p><p> Paul noted that while the number of gamers has increased between 3% to 4% every year over the past few years, gaming hardware has grown by 24%, on average, and gamers continually upgrade their equipment to the latest technologies.</p><p><blockquote>Paul指出，虽然在过去几年中，游戏玩家的数量每年增长3%至4%，但游戏硬件平均增长了24%，游戏玩家不断将他们的设备升级到最新技术。</blockquote></p><p> Paul added that if you think about gaming as a hobby or a sport, no one buys just one set of golf clubs or one set of skis. The same applies to gaming, where people start with the basics and upgrade over time.</p><p><blockquote>保罗补充说，如果你把游戏视为一种爱好或一项运动，没有人会只买一套高尔夫球杆或一套滑雪板。这同样适用于游戏，人们从基础开始，随着时间的推移而升级。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Corsair is also very active in the streaming space, making lighting and other gear gamers need to broadcast their games live to the world. Paul noted his company's first foray into gaming cameras, which provides all of the features of a DSLR in a simple webcam package.</p><p><blockquote>Corsair在流媒体领域也非常活跃，使得照明和其他装备游戏玩家需要向世界直播他们的游戏。Paul提到了他的公司首次涉足游戏相机，它在一个简单的网络摄像头包中提供了DSLR的所有功能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lightning Round</b></p><p><blockquote><b>闪电轮</b></blockquote></p><p> Here's what Jim Cramer had to say about some of the stocks that callers offered up during the \"Mad Money Lightning Round\" Thursday evening:</p><p><blockquote>以下是吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)对周四晚上“疯狂资金闪电轮”期间来电者提供的一些股票的看法：</blockquote></p><p> Rio Tinto&nbsp;(<b>RIO</b>) -Get Report: \"I think Rio Tinto is a good company and I want you to hold onto it.\"</p><p><blockquote>力拓（<b>里奥</b>）-获取报告：“我认为力拓是一家好公司，我希望你持有它。”</blockquote></p><p> QuantumScape&nbsp;(<b>QS</b>) -Get Report: \"There are other companies that claim they have better batteries and I'm starting to believe them.\"</p><p><blockquote>量子景观（<b>QS</b>)-获取报告：“还有其他公司声称他们拥有更好的电池，我开始相信他们。”</blockquote></p><p> VMware&nbsp;(<b>VMW</b>) -Get Report: \"I'd rather own Dell&nbsp;(<b>DELL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;than VMWare.\"</p><p><blockquote>VMware（<b>VMW</b>)-获取报告：“我宁愿拥有戴尔(<b>戴尔</b>)-获取比VMWare更好的报告。”</blockquote></p><p> Veru(<b>VERU</b>) -Get Report: \"They need to get into Stage III trials before we can get excited about them.\"</p><p><blockquote>Veru（<b>维鲁</b>)-获取报告：“他们需要进入III期试验，我们才能对他们感到兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cramer's Mad Money Recap: Why Stocks Are Going Down<blockquote>克莱默的疯狂金钱回顾：股市为何下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCramer's Mad Money Recap: Why Stocks Are Going Down<blockquote>克莱默的疯狂金钱回顾：股市为何下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-16 08:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Jim Cramer says it's not so much about the economy as it is the simple rules of supply and demand. There's not enough cash to buy everything.  There are a lot of theories on why stocks are going down, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Thursday, but there's only one theory that's correct. As he noted on last night's show, too often investors can't see the forest for the trees instead focusing on the economy rather than the fundamentals of supply and demand.</p><p><blockquote>吉姆·克莱默说，这与其说是经济的问题，不如说是简单的供求规则。没有足够的现金买所有的东西。吉姆·克莱默周四对《Mad Money》观众表示，关于股市下跌的原因有很多理论，但只有一种理论是正确的。正如他在昨晚的节目中指出的那样，投资者往往只见树木不见森林，而是关注经济而不是供需基本面。</blockquote></p><p> For example, many investors are taking their cue from the bond markets, which are far bigger than stocks. They have all sorts of theories as to why bond yields are plunging.</p><p><blockquote>例如，许多投资者从债券市场中得到启示，债券市场的规模远远大于股票。对于债券收益率暴跌的原因，他们有各种各样的理论。</blockquote></p><p> Is it because our rates are better than the rest of the world? Is it because Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell is right and inflation is only transitory? Or is it because we're about to see a slowdown in our economy?</p><p><blockquote>是因为我们的利率比世界其他地方好吗？是因为美联储主席鲍威尔是对的，通胀只是暂时的吗？还是因为我们即将看到经济放缓？</blockquote></p><p> Cramer said while he does believe that Powell is correct and inflation is transitory, none of these reasons really explain the action in bonds or in the stock market. What does explain the action, however, is supply and demand.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默表示，虽然他确实相信鲍威尔是正确的，通胀是暂时的，但这些原因都不能真正解释债券或股市的走势。然而，解释这一行为的是供给和需求。</blockquote></p><p> For months now, the markets have been flooded with new offerings in the form of IPOs and SPACs, and the market has increasingly struggled to absorb them all. Eventually, as it always does, supply outstrips demand and prices plunge, just as they are now. There's simply not enough cash to buy everything.</p><p><blockquote>几个月来，市场上充斥着IPO和SPAC形式的新产品，市场越来越难以吸收所有这些产品。最终，一如既往，供大于求，价格暴跌，就像现在一样。根本没有足够的现金买所有的东西。</blockquote></p><p> So while everyone has their theories, the truth is that employment is strong and inflation is waning. But when it comes to IPOs, the cycle has simply run its course.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管每个人都有自己的理论，但事实是就业强劲，通胀正在减弱。但当涉及到首次公开募股时，这个周期已经结束了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多</b></blockquote></p><p> In a special interview, Cramer welcomed back Gina Raimondo, U.S. Secretary of Commerce, for an update on the White House's economic plans to keep the economy moving forward. President Biden's latest plans include a $600 billion infrastructure package to rebuild roads, bridges and the nation's power grid, and a $3.5 trillion budget proposal that includes universal pre-kindergarten and two-year community college, among other priorities.</p><p><blockquote>在一次特别采访中，克莱默欢迎美国商务部长吉娜·雷蒙多回来，介绍白宫保持经济发展的经济计划的最新情况。拜登总统的最新计划包括一项6000亿美元的基础设施计划，用于重建道路、桥梁和国家电网，以及一项3.5万亿美元的预算提案，其中包括普及学前教育和两年制社区大学等优先事项。</blockquote></p><p> Raimondo said there are still millions of women out of the workforce because they're struggling with childcare and elder care. That's why the latest proposals include investments in caregiving as well as universal kindergarten to give all of our children a head start on their education.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙多说，仍有数百万女性失业，因为她们在照顾孩子和照顾老人方面苦苦挣扎。这就是为什么最新的提案包括对护理和普及幼儿园的投资，让我们所有的孩子在教育上有一个良好的开端。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Raimondo said we need to invest more in digital literacy and digital skills for our modern world. That includes getting more girls and minorities involved in data science so they can compete on a global stage.</p><p><blockquote>此外，雷蒙多表示，我们需要在现代世界的数字素养和数字技能方面进行更多投资。这包括让更多的女孩和少数族裔参与数据科学，以便他们能够在全球舞台上竞争。</blockquote></p><p> When asked about supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic, Raimondo called out Friday's scheduled meeting at the White House, which will include the home building and construction industries, that aims to address shortages in lumber and other building supplies. If we can produce more, prices will decline, Raimondo said, and that's the goal.</p><p><blockquote>当被问及疫情造成的供应链中断时，雷蒙多呼吁周五在白宫举行会议，会议将包括住宅建筑和建筑业，旨在解决木材和其他建筑用品的短缺问题。雷蒙多说，如果我们能够生产更多，价格就会下降，这就是我们的目标。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bull in the Second-Hand Shop</b></p><p><blockquote><b>二手店里的公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> There's a new long-term bull market brewing in the secondhand marketplace, Cramer told viewers, and it's time to compare the players and pick a winner. The contenders include Poshmark&nbsp;(<b>POSH</b>) -Get Report, ThredUp&nbsp;(<b>TDUP</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and RealReal&nbsp;(<b>REAL</b>) -Get Report, along with Etsy&nbsp;(<b>ETSY</b>) -Get Report, which just purchased Depop for $1.6 billion, and the king of secondhand goods, eBay&nbsp;(<b>EBAY</b>) -Get Report.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默告诉观众，二手市场正在酝酿一个新的长期牛市，现在是时候比较参与者并选出赢家了。竞争者包括Poshmark（<b>豪华</b>)-获取报告，ThredUp(<b>TDUP</b>)-获取报告和RealReal(<b>真的</b>)-获取报告，以及Etsy(<b>ETSY</b>）——刚刚以16亿美元收购Depop的Get Report和二手商品之王eBay（<b>EBAY</b>)-获取报告。</blockquote></p><p> For comparison, eBay is clearly the largest, with 187 million buyers around the globe. EBay is followed by Poshmark at seven million, Etsy with four million, ThredUp at 1.3 million and RealReal with just 700,000.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，eBay显然是最大的，在全球拥有1.87亿买家。紧随EBay之后的是Poshmark（700万）、Etsy（400万）、ThredUp（130万）和RealReal（仅70万）。</blockquote></p><p> Cramer said with 42% revenue growth, his favorite in the space is PoshMark, which appeared recently on the show. He said both eBay and Etsy remain fabulous companies as well, but Poshmark has the growth. ThredUp simply isn't that exciting at just 15% growth, he said, and RealReal is still recovering from its authenticity issues surrounding counterfeit items on its platform.</p><p><blockquote>克莱默表示，随着42%的收入增长，他在该领域最喜欢的是最近出现在节目中的PoshMark。他表示，eBay和Etsy仍然是出色的公司，但Poshmark取得了增长。他表示，ThredUp仅增长了15%，这并不令人兴奋，RealReal仍在从围绕其平台上假冒商品的真实性问题中恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Executive Decision:&nbsp;Corsair Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>行政决定：Corsair Gaming</b></blockquote></p><p> In his \"Executive Decision\" segment, Cramer spoke with Andy Paul, co-founder and CEO of Corsair Gaming&nbsp;(<b>CRSR</b>) -Get Report, makers of high-end gaming peripherals.</p><p><blockquote>在“行政决策”部分，克莱默采访了Corsair Gaming联合创始人兼首席执行官安迪·保罗（Andy Paul）（<b>CRSR</b>）-获取报告，高端游戏外设制造商。</blockquote></p><p> Paul noted that while the number of gamers has increased between 3% to 4% every year over the past few years, gaming hardware has grown by 24%, on average, and gamers continually upgrade their equipment to the latest technologies.</p><p><blockquote>Paul指出，虽然在过去几年中，游戏玩家的数量每年增长3%至4%，但游戏硬件平均增长了24%，游戏玩家不断将他们的设备升级到最新技术。</blockquote></p><p> Paul added that if you think about gaming as a hobby or a sport, no one buys just one set of golf clubs or one set of skis. The same applies to gaming, where people start with the basics and upgrade over time.</p><p><blockquote>保罗补充说，如果你把游戏视为一种爱好或一项运动，没有人会只买一套高尔夫球杆或一套滑雪板。这同样适用于游戏，人们从基础开始，随着时间的推移而升级。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Corsair is also very active in the streaming space, making lighting and other gear gamers need to broadcast their games live to the world. Paul noted his company's first foray into gaming cameras, which provides all of the features of a DSLR in a simple webcam package.</p><p><blockquote>Corsair在流媒体领域也非常活跃，使得照明和其他装备游戏玩家需要向世界直播他们的游戏。Paul提到了他的公司首次涉足游戏相机，它在一个简单的网络摄像头包中提供了DSLR的所有功能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lightning Round</b></p><p><blockquote><b>闪电轮</b></blockquote></p><p> Here's what Jim Cramer had to say about some of the stocks that callers offered up during the \"Mad Money Lightning Round\" Thursday evening:</p><p><blockquote>以下是吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)对周四晚上“疯狂资金闪电轮”期间来电者提供的一些股票的看法：</blockquote></p><p> Rio Tinto&nbsp;(<b>RIO</b>) -Get Report: \"I think Rio Tinto is a good company and I want you to hold onto it.\"</p><p><blockquote>力拓（<b>里奥</b>）-获取报告：“我认为力拓是一家好公司，我希望你持有它。”</blockquote></p><p> QuantumScape&nbsp;(<b>QS</b>) -Get Report: \"There are other companies that claim they have better batteries and I'm starting to believe them.\"</p><p><blockquote>量子景观（<b>QS</b>)-获取报告：“还有其他公司声称他们拥有更好的电池，我开始相信他们。”</blockquote></p><p> VMware&nbsp;(<b>VMW</b>) -Get Report: \"I'd rather own Dell&nbsp;(<b>DELL</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;than VMWare.\"</p><p><blockquote>VMware（<b>VMW</b>)-获取报告：“我宁愿拥有戴尔(<b>戴尔</b>)-获取比VMWare更好的报告。”</blockquote></p><p> Veru(<b>VERU</b>) -Get Report: \"They need to get into Stage III trials before we can get excited about them.\"</p><p><blockquote>Veru（<b>维鲁</b>)-获取报告：“他们需要进入III期试验，我们才能对他们感到兴奋。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/cramers-mad-money-recap-july-15-2021\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/jim-cramer/cramers-mad-money-recap-july-15-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143835393","content_text":"Jim Cramer says it's not so much about the economy as it is the simple rules of supply and demand. There's not enough cash to buy everything.\n\nThere are a lot of theories on why stocks are going down, Jim Cramer told his Mad Money viewers Thursday, but there's only one theory that's correct. As he noted on last night's show, too often investors can't see the forest for the trees instead focusing on the economy rather than the fundamentals of supply and demand.\nFor example, many investors are taking their cue from the bond markets, which are far bigger than stocks. They have all sorts of theories as to why bond yields are plunging.\nIs it because our rates are better than the rest of the world? Is it because Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell is right and inflation is only transitory? Or is it because we're about to see a slowdown in our economy?\nCramer said while he does believe that Powell is correct and inflation is transitory, none of these reasons really explain the action in bonds or in the stock market. What does explain the action, however, is supply and demand.\nFor months now, the markets have been flooded with new offerings in the form of IPOs and SPACs, and the market has increasingly struggled to absorb them all. Eventually, as it always does, supply outstrips demand and prices plunge, just as they are now. There's simply not enough cash to buy everything.\nSo while everyone has their theories, the truth is that employment is strong and inflation is waning. But when it comes to IPOs, the cycle has simply run its course.\nSecretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo\nIn a special interview, Cramer welcomed back Gina Raimondo, U.S. Secretary of Commerce, for an update on the White House's economic plans to keep the economy moving forward. President Biden's latest plans include a $600 billion infrastructure package to rebuild roads, bridges and the nation's power grid, and a $3.5 trillion budget proposal that includes universal pre-kindergarten and two-year community college, among other priorities.\nRaimondo said there are still millions of women out of the workforce because they're struggling with childcare and elder care. That's why the latest proposals include investments in caregiving as well as universal kindergarten to give all of our children a head start on their education.\nAdditionally, Raimondo said we need to invest more in digital literacy and digital skills for our modern world. That includes getting more girls and minorities involved in data science so they can compete on a global stage.\nWhen asked about supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic, Raimondo called out Friday's scheduled meeting at the White House, which will include the home building and construction industries, that aims to address shortages in lumber and other building supplies. If we can produce more, prices will decline, Raimondo said, and that's the goal.\nBull in the Second-Hand Shop\nThere's a new long-term bull market brewing in the secondhand marketplace, Cramer told viewers, and it's time to compare the players and pick a winner. The contenders include Poshmark (POSH) -Get Report, ThredUp (TDUP) -Get Report and RealReal (REAL) -Get Report, along with Etsy (ETSY) -Get Report, which just purchased Depop for $1.6 billion, and the king of secondhand goods, eBay (EBAY) -Get Report.\nFor comparison, eBay is clearly the largest, with 187 million buyers around the globe. EBay is followed by Poshmark at seven million, Etsy with four million, ThredUp at 1.3 million and RealReal with just 700,000.\nCramer said with 42% revenue growth, his favorite in the space is PoshMark, which appeared recently on the show. He said both eBay and Etsy remain fabulous companies as well, but Poshmark has the growth. ThredUp simply isn't that exciting at just 15% growth, he said, and RealReal is still recovering from its authenticity issues surrounding counterfeit items on its platform.\nExecutive Decision: Corsair Gaming\nIn his \"Executive Decision\" segment, Cramer spoke with Andy Paul, co-founder and CEO of Corsair Gaming (CRSR) -Get Report, makers of high-end gaming peripherals.\nPaul noted that while the number of gamers has increased between 3% to 4% every year over the past few years, gaming hardware has grown by 24%, on average, and gamers continually upgrade their equipment to the latest technologies.\nPaul added that if you think about gaming as a hobby or a sport, no one buys just one set of golf clubs or one set of skis. The same applies to gaming, where people start with the basics and upgrade over time.\nCorsair is also very active in the streaming space, making lighting and other gear gamers need to broadcast their games live to the world. Paul noted his company's first foray into gaming cameras, which provides all of the features of a DSLR in a simple webcam package.\nLightning Round\nHere's what Jim Cramer had to say about some of the stocks that callers offered up during the \"Mad Money Lightning Round\" Thursday evening:\nRio Tinto (RIO) -Get Report: \"I think Rio Tinto is a good company and I want you to hold onto it.\"\nQuantumScape (QS) -Get Report: \"There are other companies that claim they have better batteries and I'm starting to believe them.\"\nVMware (VMW) -Get Report: \"I'd rather own Dell (DELL) -Get Report than VMWare.\"\nVeru(VERU) -Get Report: \"They need to get into Stage III trials before we can get excited about them.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166347366,"gmtCreate":1623993942955,"gmtModify":1631891311069,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment n like","listText":"Comment n like","text":"Comment n like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166347366","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166342598,"gmtCreate":1623993853014,"gmtModify":1631891311069,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166342598","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":485,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143278744,"gmtCreate":1625798421688,"gmtModify":1631886472316,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143278744","repostId":"2149328127","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1281,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":151568332,"gmtCreate":1625098835126,"gmtModify":1631886472340,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151568332","repostId":"1126325248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126325248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625097519,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126325248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 07:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron sales beat expectations as chip supplies remain tight, prices high<blockquote>由于芯片供应仍然紧张，价格高企，美光销售额超出预期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126325248","media":"Reuters","summary":"(Reuters) -Micron Technology Inc on Wednesday beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and fo","content":"<p>(Reuters) -Micron Technology Inc on Wednesday beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and forecast fourth-quarter revenue above expectations, as tight supplies of memory chips and continued strong demand kept prices high.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-美光科技公司周三公布的季度利润超出华尔街预期，并预测第四季度营收高于预期，因存储芯片供应紧张和持续强劲的需求使价格保持高位。</blockquote></p><p> The chipmaker forecast current-quarter revenue of $8.2 billion, plus or minus $200 million, while analysts on average were expecting $7.87 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，该芯片制造商预测本季度营收为82亿美元，正负2亿美元，而分析师平均预期为78.7亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Micron makes NAND memory chips that serve the data storage market and DRAM memory chips that are used in data centers, smartphones and other computing devices. It has benefited from the pandemic-induced global shift toward remote work as demand for laptops and other electronic devices soared.</p><p><blockquote>美光生产服务于数据存储市场的NAND存储芯片和用于数据中心、智能手机和其他计算设备的DRAM存储芯片。随着对笔记本电脑和其他电子设备的需求飙升，它受益于大流行引发的全球向远程工作的转变。</blockquote></p><p> In prepared remarks, Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said the company expects industry-wide supplies of both kinds of chips to remain tight until the end of next year, keeping prices high.</p><p><blockquote>美光首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra在事先准备好的讲话中表示，该公司预计这两种芯片的全行业供应将持续紧张，直到明年年底，从而使价格保持高位。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe Micron’s strong financial performance will continue cross-cycle, and over the long term, our revenue growth will outperform the broader semiconductor industry,” Mehrotra said.</p><p><blockquote>Mehrotra表示：“我们相信美光的强劲财务表现将持续跨周期，从长远来看，我们的收入增长将跑赢更广泛的半导体行业。”</blockquote></p><p> The company’s revenue for the third quarter ended June 3 rose 36% to $7.42 billion, beating estimates of $7.24 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，该公司截至6月3日的第三季度营收增长36%至74.2亿美元，超出预期的72.4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding items, the company earned $1.88 per share in the quarter, above estimates of $1.72.</p><p><blockquote>不计项目，该公司本季度每股收益为1.88美元，高于预期的1.72美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company also said it will sell a plant in Lehi, Utah, to Texas Instruments Inc. Micron said it expects to get about $1.5 billion for the plant, $900 million of which will be in cash and $600 million of which will be in the value of tools it can either sell to outsiders or move to its other factories. Micron had said it would sell the Utah facility, which it shared with Intel Corp, under a joint venture formed nearly a decade ago, as part of a broader technology strategy shifthere.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，将把犹他州利希的一家工厂出售给德州仪器公司。美光表示，预计该工厂将获得约15亿美元的资金，其中9亿美元将是现金，6亿美元将是工具的价值，它可以出售给外人，也可以转移到其他工厂。美光科技曾表示，将出售犹他州工厂，该工厂是近十年前成立的合资企业，与英特尔公司共享该工厂，作为更广泛的技术战略转移的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> The company took an impairment charge of $435 million because the $900 million in cash was below the book value of the factory, but Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana told Reuters in an interview that the factory was on track to generate almost $500 million in losses this year because it was underutilized.</p><p><blockquote>该公司计提了4.35亿美元的减值费用，因为9亿美元现金低于工厂的账面价值，但首席商务官Sumit Sadana在接受路透社采访时表示，该工厂今年有望产生近5亿美元的亏损，因为它没有得到充分利用。</blockquote></p><p> Micron also said that its capital expenditures for fiscal 2021 would rise above $9.5 billion, partly driven by pre-payments as it starts to acquire extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines from Dutch maker ASML Holding NV. The machines are necessary for making the most cutting-edge chips but can cost more than $100 million each.</p><p><blockquote>美光还表示，其2021财年的资本支出将超过95亿美元，部分原因是该公司开始从荷兰制造商ASML Holding NV收购极紫外光刻（EUV）机器时的预付款。这些机器是制造最尖端芯片所必需的，但每台机器的成本可能超过1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company stretched out its use of cheaper chipmaker techniques as long as it could but will start using the EUV machines in production in 2024, officials said.</p><p><blockquote>官员们表示，该公司尽可能长时间地使用更便宜的芯片制造技术，但将于2024年开始在生产中使用EUV机器。</blockquote></p><p> “EUV is a very big and important tool in the manufacturing line. And EUV itself is a tool that has a long lead time for manufacturing from ASML. The orders have to be placed just about now,” Sadana said.</p><p><blockquote>“EUV是生产线上一个非常大和重要的工具。而EUV本身是一个从ASML制造的交付周期很长的工具。订单必须在现在就下，”Sadana说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron sales beat expectations as chip supplies remain tight, prices high<blockquote>由于芯片供应仍然紧张，价格高企，美光销售额超出预期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron sales beat expectations as chip supplies remain tight, prices high<blockquote>由于芯片供应仍然紧张，价格高企，美光销售额超出预期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 07:58</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) -Micron Technology Inc on Wednesday beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and forecast fourth-quarter revenue above expectations, as tight supplies of memory chips and continued strong demand kept prices high.</p><p><blockquote>（路透社）-美光科技公司周三公布的季度利润超出华尔街预期，并预测第四季度营收高于预期，因存储芯片供应紧张和持续强劲的需求使价格保持高位。</blockquote></p><p> The chipmaker forecast current-quarter revenue of $8.2 billion, plus or minus $200 million, while analysts on average were expecting $7.87 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，该芯片制造商预测本季度营收为82亿美元，正负2亿美元，而分析师平均预期为78.7亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Micron makes NAND memory chips that serve the data storage market and DRAM memory chips that are used in data centers, smartphones and other computing devices. It has benefited from the pandemic-induced global shift toward remote work as demand for laptops and other electronic devices soared.</p><p><blockquote>美光生产服务于数据存储市场的NAND存储芯片和用于数据中心、智能手机和其他计算设备的DRAM存储芯片。随着对笔记本电脑和其他电子设备的需求飙升，它受益于大流行引发的全球向远程工作的转变。</blockquote></p><p> In prepared remarks, Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said the company expects industry-wide supplies of both kinds of chips to remain tight until the end of next year, keeping prices high.</p><p><blockquote>美光首席执行官Sanjay Mehrotra在事先准备好的讲话中表示，该公司预计这两种芯片的全行业供应将持续紧张，直到明年年底，从而使价格保持高位。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe Micron’s strong financial performance will continue cross-cycle, and over the long term, our revenue growth will outperform the broader semiconductor industry,” Mehrotra said.</p><p><blockquote>Mehrotra表示：“我们相信美光的强劲财务表现将持续跨周期，从长远来看，我们的收入增长将跑赢更广泛的半导体行业。”</blockquote></p><p> The company’s revenue for the third quarter ended June 3 rose 36% to $7.42 billion, beating estimates of $7.24 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，该公司截至6月3日的第三季度营收增长36%至74.2亿美元，超出预期的72.4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding items, the company earned $1.88 per share in the quarter, above estimates of $1.72.</p><p><blockquote>不计项目，该公司本季度每股收益为1.88美元，高于预期的1.72美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company also said it will sell a plant in Lehi, Utah, to Texas Instruments Inc. Micron said it expects to get about $1.5 billion for the plant, $900 million of which will be in cash and $600 million of which will be in the value of tools it can either sell to outsiders or move to its other factories. Micron had said it would sell the Utah facility, which it shared with Intel Corp, under a joint venture formed nearly a decade ago, as part of a broader technology strategy shifthere.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还表示，将把犹他州利希的一家工厂出售给德州仪器公司。美光表示，预计该工厂将获得约15亿美元的资金，其中9亿美元将是现金，6亿美元将是工具的价值，它可以出售给外人，也可以转移到其他工厂。美光科技曾表示，将出售犹他州工厂，该工厂是近十年前成立的合资企业，与英特尔公司共享该工厂，作为更广泛的技术战略转移的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> The company took an impairment charge of $435 million because the $900 million in cash was below the book value of the factory, but Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana told Reuters in an interview that the factory was on track to generate almost $500 million in losses this year because it was underutilized.</p><p><blockquote>该公司计提了4.35亿美元的减值费用，因为9亿美元现金低于工厂的账面价值，但首席商务官Sumit Sadana在接受路透社采访时表示，该工厂今年有望产生近5亿美元的亏损，因为它没有得到充分利用。</blockquote></p><p> Micron also said that its capital expenditures for fiscal 2021 would rise above $9.5 billion, partly driven by pre-payments as it starts to acquire extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines from Dutch maker ASML Holding NV. The machines are necessary for making the most cutting-edge chips but can cost more than $100 million each.</p><p><blockquote>美光还表示，其2021财年的资本支出将超过95亿美元，部分原因是该公司开始从荷兰制造商ASML Holding NV收购极紫外光刻（EUV）机器时的预付款。这些机器是制造最尖端芯片所必需的，但每台机器的成本可能超过1亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The company stretched out its use of cheaper chipmaker techniques as long as it could but will start using the EUV machines in production in 2024, officials said.</p><p><blockquote>官员们表示，该公司尽可能长时间地使用更便宜的芯片制造技术，但将于2024年开始在生产中使用EUV机器。</blockquote></p><p> “EUV is a very big and important tool in the manufacturing line. And EUV itself is a tool that has a long lead time for manufacturing from ASML. The orders have to be placed just about now,” Sadana said.</p><p><blockquote>“EUV是生产线上一个非常大和重要的工具。而EUV本身是一个从ASML制造的交付周期很长的工具。订单必须在现在就下，”Sadana说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/micron-tech-results/update-3-micron-sales-beat-expectations-as-chip-supplies-remain-tight-prices-high-idUSL3N2OC4I1\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/micron-tech-results/update-3-micron-sales-beat-expectations-as-chip-supplies-remain-tight-prices-high-idUSL3N2OC4I1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126325248","content_text":"(Reuters) -Micron Technology Inc on Wednesday beat Wall Street estimates for quarterly profit and forecast fourth-quarter revenue above expectations, as tight supplies of memory chips and continued strong demand kept prices high.\nThe chipmaker forecast current-quarter revenue of $8.2 billion, plus or minus $200 million, while analysts on average were expecting $7.87 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nMicron makes NAND memory chips that serve the data storage market and DRAM memory chips that are used in data centers, smartphones and other computing devices. It has benefited from the pandemic-induced global shift toward remote work as demand for laptops and other electronic devices soared.\nIn prepared remarks, Micron Chief Executive Sanjay Mehrotra said the company expects industry-wide supplies of both kinds of chips to remain tight until the end of next year, keeping prices high.\n“We believe Micron’s strong financial performance will continue cross-cycle, and over the long term, our revenue growth will outperform the broader semiconductor industry,” Mehrotra said.\nThe company’s revenue for the third quarter ended June 3 rose 36% to $7.42 billion, beating estimates of $7.24 billion, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nExcluding items, the company earned $1.88 per share in the quarter, above estimates of $1.72.\nThe company also said it will sell a plant in Lehi, Utah, to Texas Instruments Inc. Micron said it expects to get about $1.5 billion for the plant, $900 million of which will be in cash and $600 million of which will be in the value of tools it can either sell to outsiders or move to its other factories. Micron had said it would sell the Utah facility, which it shared with Intel Corp, under a joint venture formed nearly a decade ago, as part of a broader technology strategy shifthere.\nThe company took an impairment charge of $435 million because the $900 million in cash was below the book value of the factory, but Chief Business Officer Sumit Sadana told Reuters in an interview that the factory was on track to generate almost $500 million in losses this year because it was underutilized.\nMicron also said that its capital expenditures for fiscal 2021 would rise above $9.5 billion, partly driven by pre-payments as it starts to acquire extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV) machines from Dutch maker ASML Holding NV. The machines are necessary for making the most cutting-edge chips but can cost more than $100 million each.\nThe company stretched out its use of cheaper chipmaker techniques as long as it could but will start using the EUV machines in production in 2024, officials said.\n“EUV is a very big and important tool in the manufacturing line. And EUV itself is a tool that has a long lead time for manufacturing from ASML. The orders have to be placed just about now,” Sadana said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1148,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129871096,"gmtCreate":1624369848515,"gmtModify":1631891311050,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi","listText":"Hi","text":"Hi","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129871096","repostId":"1177499959","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":129847198,"gmtCreate":1624369789614,"gmtModify":1631891311052,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/129847198","repostId":"1187133273","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165490554,"gmtCreate":1624154231078,"gmtModify":1631891311056,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165490554","repostId":"1133385197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":165405201,"gmtCreate":1624154140703,"gmtModify":1631891311069,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like n comment","listText":"Like n comment","text":"Like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/165405201","repostId":"1199331995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":830,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166344644,"gmtCreate":1623993915388,"gmtModify":1631891311065,"author":{"id":"3587081359050751","authorId":"3587081359050751","name":"NewBroker","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/679a269dd89a977b366ead874b584a66","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3587081359050751","idStr":"3587081359050751"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read","listText":"Good read","text":"Good read","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166344644","repostId":"1175693382","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175693382","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623978463,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175693382?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 09:07","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175693382","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Alibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlibaba Stock: The Bottoming Process Looks To Be Forming Already<blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW股票：触底过程似乎已经形成</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Alibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.</li>  <li>The company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.</li>  <li>The short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.</li>  <li>We discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05e63c77d4f3f3dc3d618e43044638bb\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Yongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>阿里巴巴-SW可能是目前最被低估的成长型股票。</li><li>该公司在快速扩张的市场中的多种增长动力使其估值看起来更加令人困惑。</li><li>短期技术面可能会转向看涨，并出现潜在的双底价格走势信号。</li><li>我们讨论公司的多种增长动力，让投资者自行判断。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>戴永源/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Technical Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术论文</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7febf6ed056b0e3bc038321cdaad9b1c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"><span>Source: TradingView</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba’s&nbsp;stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.</p><p><blockquote>自11月20日早些时候蚂蚁金服IPO被取消以来，阿里巴巴-SW的股价已经经历了可怕的8个月，股价低迷，较高点下跌了34%。当考虑其长期上升趋势的健康状况时，很明显BABA具有相对较强的上升趋势偏差，并且通常在其关键的50W MA上得到良好支撑。过去4年中唯一一次失去关键的50W MA支撑位是在2018年熊市期间，BABA下跌了约40%，但仍在重要的200W MA上方得到良好支撑，我们通常认为这是“最后一道防线”。现在阿里巴巴再次面临类似的情况：下跌34%，失去了50W MA，但看起来在200W MA上方得到了很好的支撑。除此之外，价格行为分析中的一个有趣观察可能会导致价格行为交易者/投资者特别看涨：潜在的双底形成。阿里巴巴的价格似乎正在经历双底，就像2018年熊市期间一样，随后强劲反弹。因此，阿里巴巴目前的水平现在可能提供一个可能的技术买入切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的基本论点：快速扩大增长动力</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eba49f5881708929949c30628eedc5d4\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"578\"><span>Annual GMV. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年度GMV。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a4d6c4ed3e2402f5af52b2dea8bab411\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>Annual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>年电子商务收入。数据来源：公司备案</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴的GMV在短短7年内从1.68 T元增长到7.49 T元，复合年增长率为23.8%，增速确实惊人。我们还看到其GMV增长转化为收入增长，其中国商业收入从76.7亿元增长至4736.8亿元，过去10年复合年增长率为51%。虽然其国际足迹仍然相当小，但在过去10年中，其复合年增长率仍为30.42%，这一点也不慢。</blockquote></p><p> Even though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计未来三年中国电子商务市场的增长速度将大幅放缓，复合年增长率为12.4%，从2021年的13.8 T元（相当于2.16 T美元）增长到2024年的19.6 T元（相当于3.06 T美元），但庞大的市场规模仍然为阿里巴巴及其最接近的竞争对手提供了巨大的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe2dee43f267e1d1399c68e3ca60f36\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>E-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国电子商务收入数据来源：Statista</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.</p><p><blockquote>当我们通过比较中国与美国电子商务市场的增长率和规模来更清晰地看待事物时，我们可以看到它们的规模和增长率的巨大差异，因为美国电子商务市场预计仅增长2021年至2025年的复合年增长率为4.67%，明显低于中国的12.4%。此外，美国市场的总收入预计也将达到约5630亿美元，是届时中国市场预计价值的18%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d5a8d0d8a6a2dcdf667a6f33c6c9771\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"702\"><span>Peers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行息税前利润率和预计息税前利润率。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&amp;A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>尽管阿里巴巴-SW一直面临着来自快速增长的主要竞争对手京东（纳斯达克：JD）和拼多多（纳斯达克：PDD）的越来越大的竞争压力，但阿里巴巴已经在经营利润更高的业务（息税前利润和自由现金流），并且预计未来将继续实现强劲的盈利能力，这将使该公司具有巨大的灵活性，可以与京东和拼多多正面竞争，以扩大其领导地位。投资者可能会注意到，阿里巴巴的息税前利润率受到其SG&amp;A中反映的27.82亿美元一次性行政罚款的影响，因此其息税前利润率出现下行。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> One important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of&nbsp;823M AAC&nbsp;in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only&nbsp;100M AAC in Q2’C17&nbsp;as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>一项重要举措是该公司决定进一步投资社区市场，这是拼多多的主要电子商务战略，拼多多在最近一个季度总共获得了8.23亿AAC，而阿里巴巴的AAC为8.91亿。与阿里巴巴同期的4.66亿AAC相比，拼多多的AAC在2017年第二季度仅有1亿AAC，其AAC增长确实是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.</p><p><blockquote>因此，增长势头肯定已经转向社区市场领域，阿里巴巴需要拿出重磅炸弹（它已经拥有）来与拼多多和京东争夺主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b83b69b08b1f4b11a26393c8e6eead5\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Market size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国社区团购的市场规模。数据来源：艾媒咨询</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.</p><p><blockquote>尽管预计到2022年1020亿元的总市场规模仅占阿里巴巴21财年中国商业收入的21.5%左右，但阿里巴巴不能错过2019年至2022年3年内44.22%的预期快速复合年增长率。虽然市场还比较小，但BABA不能让这个市场目前的龙头：PDD在旁人无知的情况下，如此轻易地称霸并吞噬早期的高增长率。当然，阿里巴巴必须竞争并争取自己在这一领域的地位，并争取早期领导地位，以防止拼多多扩大领先优势。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97b2b4a8a182dc9846d8fb7e4039877\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"770\"><span>PDD profitability metrics &amp; revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>PDD盈利指标和收入增长预测。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以从上图中观察到，拼多多的收入预计将在未来几年继续快速增长，尽管预计随后将正常化。更重要的是，拼多多预计未来的息税前利润和自由现金流盈利能力也将日益提高。这表明社区市场细分市场是一个非常重要的增长动力，阿里巴巴必须利用其优势来利用它，以否认拼多多在游戏早期声称的无可争议的领导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aadc32155b4108426a1a982e3b5b1c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>China public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云支出。来源：中国互联网观察；Canalys</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c1538b9f7bdc8d6d35a72d9acf8ecbc\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Size of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国公有云市场规模。数据来源：中国信通技术；新浪网</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴在中国公有云市场拥有40%的份额，远远领先于其主要竞争对手。然而，值得注意的是，尽管处于领先地位，阿里巴巴仍处于大力投资模式，以继续扩大其市场份额，因为中国公共云市场预计将从2017年的264.8亿元增长到2023年的2307.4亿元，这将代表CAGR 43.4%，这是一个令人难以置信的出色增长率。当我们将中国的增长率与全球增长率（见下文）进行比较时，这一点尤其明显，因为全球公共云支出预计将从2017年的1450亿美元增长到2022年的3970亿美元，这将代表22.3%的CAGR。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06198c569504bc303c34563041dfb294\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"371\"><span>Worldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云支出。数据来源：Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8482037f60575f964053ab732496bee3\" tg-width=\"1176\" tg-height=\"700\"><span>Worldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>全球公共云市场份额。来源：CnTechPost；Gartner</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.</p><p><blockquote>因此，阿里云在2020年以9.5%的市场份额继续扩大对Alphabet（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：GOOG）GCP的领先优势，我并不觉得奇怪。虽然亚马逊仍然是市场上明显的领导者，但随着公共云支出的持续扩大，其市场份额一直在大幅下降，这表明多个参与者存在巨大的增长潜力。凭借阿里巴巴在快速扩张的中国市场的领导地位，我越来越看好该细分市场未来的利润和自由现金流对阿里巴巴业绩的贡献。尽管阿里巴巴的云部门尚未实现息税前利润（21财年息税前利润率：-15%，20财年息税前利润率：-17.5%），但值得注意的是，Alphabet的GCP也尚未实现盈利（20财年息税前利润率：-42.9%，19财年息税前利润率：-52%）。因此，我们需要给阿里巴巴一些时间来扩大其在亚太地区和中国的云服务规模，预计阿里巴巴将拥有更强大的领导力，使其能够更快地增长，投资者应该预计随着时间的推移，这将是一个高利润的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>BABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling</b></p><p><blockquote><b>阿里巴巴的估值看起来非常引人注目</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62a087c4b3ef7efc2c5dde813e3b959d\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"600\"><span>NTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>NTM TEV/EBIT 3Y范围。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2605c0e5ad364a7a43929fef204595c\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"687\"><span>EV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>EV/Fwd息税前利润和EV/Fwd Rev趋势。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.</p><p><blockquote>当我们考虑阿里巴巴的TEV/EBIT历史范围（3年平均值为33.54倍）时，阿里巴巴的EV/Fwd EBIT趋势无疑意味着该股票被严重低估，因为预计阿里巴巴的收入和营业利润仍将快速增长。然而，由于我们希望更清楚地了解其同行的估值情况，我们认为如果我们对阿里巴巴的息税前利润进行估值，而不是下面介绍的一组基准公司，这将是有用的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27873e676dfb23c98d4a69aa5861e02\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"1117\"><span>Peers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&amp;P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>同行EV/EBIT估值。数据来源：标普资本智商</span></p></blockquote></p><p> By using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.</p><p><blockquote>通过混合使用历史和远期息税前利润，我们可以看到，与基准公司一组观察值的中值相比，阿里巴巴的EV/EBIT看起来确实被低估了。我们得出阿里巴巴的公允价值范围为294.98美元，位于该范围的中点，基于当前210美元的股价，这意味着40.5%的潜在上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks to Assumptions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>假设风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.</p><p><blockquote>现在，看着先生如何表现显然令人困惑。市场决定对阿里巴巴进行折扣，就好像该公司已经失去了所有关键的增长来源，而事实上，其商业部门、新的市场举措和不断增长的阿里云部门仍有很大的潜在上涨空间，其中。我们认为该股表现不佳的主要现实原因只是监管风险。我们认为投资者应该承认这种风险是非常真实的，有时大型中国公司会发现自己受到中国政府的额外审查（事实上这并不是什么新鲜事）。这里关键的是，中国政府似乎对其科技巨头的行为和行动拥有重大影响力，而这些影响力有时可能在很大程度上是不可预测的。市场当然讨厌不可预测性，因此他们可能会因此大幅折扣阿里巴巴。如果投资者无法应对潜在不可预测的监管行动及其后果的不确定性，那么阿里巴巴可能不适合您。然而，如果你认为这只是阿里巴巴漫长旅程中的一个短暂时刻，那么你肯定会发现阿里巴巴现在的估值极具吸引力，再加上长期思维。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wrapping It All Up</b></p><p><blockquote><b>把这一切包起来</b></blockquote></p><p> Alibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW继续取得稳健的业绩，展示了公司强大的执行能力。由于该公司继续在一个拥有如此多增长动力的市场中运营，预计将推动公司未来的增长，投资者应该会发现当前的估值非常有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4435297-alibaba-stock-bottoming-process-forming-buy-now","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175693382","content_text":"Summary\n\nAlibaba is probably the most undervalued growth stock right now.\nThe company’s multiple growth drivers within a rapidly expanding market made its valuations look even more baffling.\nThe short term technical picture may be turning bullish with a potential double bottom price action signal.\nWe discuss the company’s multiple growth drivers and let investors judge for themselves.\n\nYongyuan Dai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nThe Technical Thesis\nSource: TradingView\nAlibaba’s stock price has endured a terrible 8 months ever since its Ant Financial IPO was pulled in early Nov 20, with the stock languishing in the doldrums 34% off its high. When considering the health of its long term uptrend, it’s clear that BABA has a relatively strong uptrend bias and has generally been well supported along its key 50W MA. The only other time in the last 4 years that it lost its key 50W MA support level was during the 2018 bear market where BABA dropped about 40%, but was still well supported above the important 200W MA, which we usually consider as the “last line of defense”. Right now BABA is somewhat facing a similar situation again: down 34%, lost the 50W MA, but looks to be well supported above the 200W MA. In addition to that, one interesting observation in price action analysis may lead price action traders/investors to be especially bullish: a potential double bottom formation. BABA's price is seemingly going through a double bottom like it did during the 2018 bear market before it rallied strongly thereafter. As a result, BABA’s current level may offer a possible technical buy entry point now.\nBABA's Fundamental Thesis: Rapidly Expanding Growth Drivers\nAnnual GMV. Data source: Company filings\nAnnual e-commerce revenue. Data source: Company filings\nBABA’s GMV grew from 1.68T yuan to 7.49T yuan in just a matter of 7 years, which represented a CAGR of 23.8%, a truly amazing growth rate. We also saw its GMV growth being converted into revenue growth as its China commerce revenue grew from 7.67B yuan to 473.68B yuan, at a CAGR of 51% over the last 10 years. While its international footprint remains considerably smaller, it still grew at a CAGR of 30.42% over the last 10 years, which was by no means slow.\nEven though China’s e-commerce market is expected to grow considerably slower at a CAGR of 12.4% over the next three years, from 13.8T yuan, equivalent to $2.16T in 2021 to 19.6T yuan,equivalent to $3.06T by 2024, the massive size of the market still offers tremendous upside potential for BABA and its closest competitors to grow into.\nE-commerce revenue in the U.S. Data source: Statista\nWhen we take things into clearer perspective by comparing China’s growth rate and size of its market to that of the U.S. e-commerce market, we could see the huge differences in their sizes and growth rates as the U.S. e-commerce market is only expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.67% from 2021 to 2025, which is significantly slower than China’s 12.4%. In addition, the U.S. market is also expected to reach about $563B in total revenue, which is 18% of what the China market is expected to be worth by then.\nPeers EBIT Margin and Projected EBIT Margin. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nEven though Alibaba has been facing increased competitive pressures from its fast growing key competitors: JD.com(NASDAQ:JD)and Pinduoduo(NASDAQ:PDD), BABA has already been operating a much more profitable business (both EBIT and FCF), and is expected to continue delivering strong profitability moving forward, which should give the company tremendous flexibility to compete head on with JD and PDD in its quest to extend its leadership. Investors may observe that BABA’s EBIT margin was affected by the one-off administrative penalty of $2,782M that was reflected in its SG&A, and therefore skewed its EBIT margin to the downside.\nOne important move was the company’s decision to further its investment in the Community Marketplace, which is PDD’s main e-commerce strategy that saw PDD gain a total of 823M AAC in its latest quarter as compared to BABA’s 891M AAC. PDD’s AAC growth is truly phenomenal considering it had only 100M AAC in Q2’C17 as compared to BABA’s 466M AAC in the same period.\nTherefore, the momentum of growth has surely swung over to the Community Marketplace segment and BABA would need to pull out its big guns (which it has) to compete for dominance with PDD and JD.\nMarket size of community group buying in China. Data source: iiMedia Research\nEven though the expected total market size of 102B yuan by 2022 represented only about 21.5% of BABA’s FY 21 China commerce revenue, the expected rapid CAGR of 44.22% over 3 years from 2019 to 2022 cannot be missed by BABA. Although the market is still relatively small, BABA cannot allow the current leader in this market: PDD to so easily dominate and gobble up the early high growth rates at the ignorance of everyone else. Certainly BABA must compete and fight for its place in this segment and strive for early leadership to prevent PDD from extending its lead.\nPDD profitability metrics & revenue growth forecast. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWe could observe from the above chart that PDD is expected to continue growing its revenue rapidly over the next few years, even though they are expected to normalize subsequently. More importantly, PDD is also expected to increasingly improve its EBIT and FCF profitability moving forward. This shows that the Community Marketplace segment is an highly important growth driver that BABA must use its strength to exploit in order to deny PDD’s claim to undisputed leadership so early on in the game.\nChina public cloud spending. Source:China Internet Watch; Canalys\nSize of China public cloud market. Data source: CAICT; Sina.com.cn\nBABA has a 40% share in China’s public cloud market, way ahead of its key competitors. However, it’s important to note that despite this leadership, BABA is still in heavy investment mode to continue growing its market share as China’s public cloud market is expected to grow from 26.48B yuan in 2017 to 230.74B yuan by 2023, which would represent a CAGR of 43.4%, an incredibly stellar growth rate. This is especially clear when we compare China’s growth rate to the worldwide growth rate (see below) as public cloud spending worldwide is expected to grow from $145B in 2017 to $397B by 2022, that would represent a CAGR of 22.3%.\nWorldwide public cloud spending. Data source: Gartner\nWorldwide public cloud market share. Source:CnTechPost; Gartner\nTherefore, I don’t find it surprising that Ali Cloud has continued to extend its lead over Alphabet’s(NASDAQ:GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG)GCP with a market share of 9.5% in 2020. While AMZN remains the clear leader in the market, its market share has been coming down considerably as public cloud spending continues to expand, indicating that there is a huge potential for growth for multiple players to exist. With BABA’s leadership in the rapidly expanding Chinese market, I’m increasingly bullish on the future profit and FCF contribution from this segment to BABA’s performance over time. Although BABA’s cloud segment has not been EBIT profitable yet (FY 21 EBIT margin: -15%, FY 20 EBIT margin: -17.5%), it’s also useful to note that GCP has also not been profitable for Alphabet as well (FY 20 EBIT margin: -42.9%, FY 19 EBIT margin: -52%). Therefore, we need to give BABA some time to scale up its cloud services in APAC and in China where it is expected to have stronger leadership to allow it to grow faster and investors should expect this to be a highly profitable segment over time.\nBABA's Valuations Look Highly Compelling\nNTM TEV / EBIT 3Y range.\nEV / Fwd EBIT and EV / Fwd Rev trend. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nWhen we consider BABA's TEV / EBIT historical range, where the 3Y mean read 33.54x, BABA’s EV / Fwd EBIT trend certainly imply a hugely undervalued stock as BABA is still expected to grow its revenue and operating profits rapidly. However, as we wanted to obtain greater clarity over how its counterparts are also valued, we thought it would be useful if we value BABA’s EBIT over a set of benchmark companies that is presented below.\nPeers EV / EBIT Valuations. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nBy using a blend of historical and forward EBIT, we could see that BABA’s EV / EBIT really looks undervalued when compared to the median value of the set of observed values from the benchmark companies. We derived a fair value range for BABA of $294.98 at the midpoint of the range, that represented a potential upside of 40.5% based on the current stock price of $210.\nRisks to Assumptions\nNow, it’s obviously baffling to watch how Mr. Market has decided to discount BABA to such an extent as if the company has lost all its key sources of growth, when in fact there is still so much potential upside coming from its commerce segment, the new marketplace initiatives and its growing Ali Cloud segment, among others. The main realistic reason that we identified for the stock's underperformance would simply be regulatory risk. We think investors should acknowledge that this risk is very real and at times huge Chinese companies have found themselves to be subjected to extra scrutiny (which is nothing new in fact) by the Chinese government. What’s critical here is that the Chinese government seemingly has significant clout over the behavior and actions of their tech behemoths that at times may be largely unpredictable. The market certainly hates unpredictability and therefore they may have significantly discounted BABA as a result of that. If investors are not able to handle uncertainty with regard to potentially unpredictable regulatory actions and their aftermath, then BABA may not be appropriate for you. However, if you believe that this is just a blip in BABA’s long journey, then you would surely find BABA's valuations extremely attractive right now, coupled with a long term mindset.\nWrapping It All Up\nAlibaba has continued to deliver solid results that demonstrated the strong capability of the company to execute well. As the company continues to operate within a market with so many growth drivers that are expected to drive the company’s future growth, investors should find the current valuations highly attractive.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}