optioncao的个人主页 - 老虎社区

optioncao

optioncao

100%专研美股期权 100%持仓期权 100%获利期权实盘分析（含以上） 100%只操盘科技股用独特的视角挖掘市值低估的科技公司

IP属地：广东

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10粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2025-09-10

$BABA 20250912 152.5 CALL$ 277%，比特帝国初战告捷

01-08

这个二货，也适合2019年特斯拉破产边缘，看空

特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业

01-06

$百度集团-SW(09888)$ 收账5-5.5%。

2025-12-25

二货，还用汽车估值。[贱笑]

瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？

2025-12-08

$泡泡玛特(09992)$ 卖玩具的科技含量，最多30港币

2025-11-28

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 收盘173.9

2025-11-20

德行。做空必然看空。

没被英伟达财报说服？“大空头”继续炮轰AI：真实需求“少得可笑”

2025-11-20

820吧，行吗

美利亚斯研究：上调英伟达目标价至320美元

2025-11-16

除了保守赚钱给苹果。屁产品艺术没有

一个时代即将结束，蒂姆·库克将卸任

2025-11-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 马斯克吹牛逼学费已交，13600元。我是铁粉[龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙]

2025-11-15

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 收盘42$TSLA 20251114 422.5 CALL$

2025-11-13

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 天天万亿吹牛逼，开盘下砸数第一哈哈[贱笑]

2025-10-02

$快手摩通五乙购A.C(14973)$ 翻倍必出，涡轮，快手，106%。

2025-10-01

国庆节操盘夜，开始收割特斯拉[贱笑]

2025-09-30

$快手摩通五乙购A.C(14973)$ 三次建仓，0.06/0.08/0.09港币。今日战果。继续看多快手，年底130-145港币。

2025-09-27

$INTC 20251003 36.0 CALL$ 国庆节的最大礼物，爱人Intel[贱笑] 。看多到40-42美金

2025-09-26

$INTC 20251003 27.5 CALL$ 抛弃了你，赚19倍后。[贱笑]

2025-09-26

$INTC 20251003 27.5 CALL$ 17倍获利，胆子大的，今晚可上船。国庆节第三天到期[贱笑]

2025-09-25

$INTC 20251003 27.5 CALL$ 14倍，获利。看多英特尔变革年

2025-09-24

破万纪念，每天一万收入，要求不高[贱笑]

2025-09-19

$INTC 20250919 26.5 CALL$

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"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20250912 152.5 CALL\">$BABA 20250912 152.5 CALL$ </a> 277%，比特帝国初战告捷","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA 20250912 152.5 CALL\">$BABA 20250912 152.5 CALL$ </a> 277%，比特帝国初战告捷","text":"$BABA 20250912 152.5 CALL$ 277%，比特帝国初战告捷","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdcaa818a098e556bc83493805c9507","width":"1006","height":"1808"}],"top":2,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477092838182968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":519518804910408,"gmtCreate":1767856971558,"gmtModify":1767858042238,"author":{"id":"38220067823223","authorId":"38220067823223","name":"optioncao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ecb563d4e3667cbc1b3657debd5f07b","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"38220067823223","authorIdStr":"38220067823223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这个二货，也适合2019年特斯拉破产边缘，看空","listText":"这个二货，也适合2019年特斯拉破产边缘，看空","text":"这个二货，也适合2019年特斯拉破产边缘，看空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519518804910408","repostId":"2601877535","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2601877535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1767784565,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601877535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-07 19:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601877535","media":"美股研究社","summary":"综上，储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块，但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。要知道，彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。综合来看，特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业，反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险</strong></p><p>我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶（FSD）、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单，这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益，依旧停留在投机阶段。</p><p>即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功，也必须正视一个现实：这些领域的竞争都异常激烈，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在切入这些赛道时，已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议，导致品牌声誉受损，暴露出显著的<strong>核心人物风险</strong>。近年来，市场上一直流传着 “过度追求政治正确，终将反噬企业经营” 的说法，而这一道理反过来同样成立。特斯拉因立场问题疏远了至少半数消费者，进而可能损害用户信任 —— 这对公司的发展而言，无疑是一剂毒药。</p><img src=\"\"/><p>【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLcrVAEs2bhwIEUP4FfvianI8UkwWsmGS8QGt9FUCfIVia1npfInK1SOWWQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>储能业务：</strong></p><p><strong>装机量增长放缓，单位营收持续下滑</strong></p><p>接下来聚焦特斯拉的核心实体业务 —— 汽车制造与储能系统。在所有业务指标中，储能装机量（GWh）是特斯拉唯一能拿出手的增长数据。2025 年第四季度，公司储能装机量达到 14.2 吉瓦时的历史新高；全年装机量累计达 46.7 吉瓦时，展现出强劲的扩张态势。</p><p>但光鲜数据的背后，是<strong>同比增速的快速滑落</strong>：2025 年储能装机量同比增幅为 49%，远低于 2024 年的 114% 与 2023 年的 126%。市场预测，到 2029 年，这一增速将进一步放缓至 26%，对应装机量约 141.8 吉瓦时。</p><p>与装机量增速放缓相伴而来的，是<strong>单位装机量营收的持续走低</strong>。2020 至 2021 年，特斯拉每吉瓦时储能装机量能创造近 7 亿美元的营收；而到了 2025 年第二季度，这一数值已腰斩过半，降至 2.89 亿美元；第三季度进一步下滑至 2.76 亿美元。值得注意的是，过去五个季度里，储能业务的毛利率基本稳定在 25% 至 31% 的区间。</p><p>综上，储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块，但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLczbSMU66CbrBjDq7jpr5zsiclLE4DkRGuL9TVwK0r2tbvibNaKK4AzxHw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>汽车业务：</strong></p><p><strong>交付量下滑叠加售价走低，内外承压</strong></p><p>无论市场如何炒作新概念，汽车销售仍是特斯拉的核心支柱业务。已有大量报道指出，2025 年第四季度，特斯拉汽车交付量同比暴跌 16%；全年交付量同比下降 9%，创下公司史上最差的季度同比表现，同时也是连续第二个财年交付量下滑。</p><p>此外，根据分析师的测算，截至 2025 年第三季度，特斯拉汽车的过去十二个月（TTM）平均售价已<span>跌破</span> 4 万美元。</p><p>市场预测，到 2029 年，特斯拉汽车年交付量有望达到 300 万辆，较 2025 年的 160 万辆实现增长。但这一目标的可行性，分析师深表怀疑 —— 毕竟，特斯拉正面临日益激烈的市场竞争。即便我们姑且认可这一偏乐观的预测，其对应的 2029 年交付量同比增速也仅为 28%，与 2023 年之前的高速增长时代相去甚远。要知道，彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。</p><p>从区域市场的表现中，我们更能直观感受到特斯拉的困境。2025 年 11 月，中国新能源汽车市场整体销量同比增长 21%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>等中国本土品牌的交付量更是实现翻倍，而特斯拉在华销量却陷入同比停滞。</p><p>放眼全球市场，2025 年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>的纯电动汽车销量已大幅超越特斯拉。而在欧洲市场，马斯克的立场引发了消费者的强烈抵触：2025 年 12 月，特斯拉在瑞典、法国、西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙的新车注册量同比分别暴跌 71%、66%、44%、28% 和 13%。从欧洲主要市场的全年数据初步判断，特斯拉 2025 年的注册量同比降幅约为 25%，市场份额持续萎缩。</p><p>雪上加霜的是，受美国本土政策支持力度减弱等因素影响，2026 年全球新能源汽车销量的整体增速预计将显著放缓。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLciaWMQ0QPFPFmoNQtcVWichXhCuZB2x0BS879mNfIl6Lz8r5HIRlqLj6w/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>估值泡沫：</strong></p><p><strong>人形机器人预期已被过度透支</strong></p><p>我们不妨暂且采信马斯克的说法 —— 预计到 2026 或 2027 年，特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的销量将突破 100 万台，单价或达 2.25 万美元，对应潜在营收约 225 亿美元。</p><p>但从下图的市场一致预期中可以看出，这部分潜在营收早已被<strong>完全计入当前估值</strong>。在覆盖特斯拉的 34 位分析师中，最乐观的预测认为，公司 2027 年的年化营收将较 2025 年增长 720 亿美元。由此可见，市场对特斯拉的预期已然达到了 “只能成功、不能失败” 的极端程度。</p><p>即便以这份极度乐观的 2027 年营收预期为基准，特斯拉当前对应的远期市盈率仍高达 147 倍。在之前的分析中，分析师曾从多个角度拆解特斯拉的估值，结论早已不言而喻：其估值水平早已脱离基本面，荒谬至极。而时至今日，这一结论依然成立。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdKLTlW17KYicXbduwZsUSFEKA3QhDoZBDRLD4pI17USiafzA7ib7ZgicBniaIKocAFvdFCDFy7DSsRicKibw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p>数据来源：营收预期（Seeking Alpha）</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdJ3W4gruZ6lz6pj1cuQvXYHzFTgv6zBDxN3hjm1PtXPLNKCakI3eyW9mPqibvjCvXwDia0vaM9Nht8w/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>结语</strong></p><p>在竞争白热化的新能源汽车市场，特斯拉正面临交付量下滑与售价走低的双重压力；储能业务虽有增长，但增速放缓、单位营收下滑的隐忧日益凸显。人形机器人等新兴业务的潜在收益，早已被市场透支殆尽，当前估值完全建立在充满不确定性的预期之上。</p><p>更致命的是，创始人的政治立场引发的品牌声誉危机，以及由此带来的核心人物风险，正在持续损害公司的用户基础与市场竞争力。</p><p>综合来看，特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业，反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。对投资者而言，现在正是最后的离场时机。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdJlQNwm5fnHWnfblqB1P5B3gLTjg6j6dT5IyOFclcldYqPQickKMUqicdaXvibXdEb4OibV97CAwGO6TQ/640?wx_fmt=other&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;tp=webp#imgIndex=5\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdKnkt8t5QpwjNQOKyGlZz4SFiacicdM3aP4hZVCfGia7HbIYBoDxz2gubPAgoXDXhfrcLIfT2eG92icfw/640?wx_fmt=other&amp;from=appmsg&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;tp=webp#imgIndex=6\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/dR7EpbvovdLt0fplojSTcIf4vTY1fP5f5VhIsL3QI5iaHIficMHKVzpaxPOM0yB24Zgs1PJlLHXFs5UXKRic0iaTxA/640?wx_fmt=gif&amp;from=appmsg&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;tp=webp#imgIndex=7\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-07 19:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶（FSD）、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单，这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益，依旧停留在投机阶段。即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功，也必须正视一个现实：这些领域的竞争都异常激烈，而特斯拉在切入这些赛道时，已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议，导致品牌声誉受损，暴露出显著的核心人物风险。近年来，市场上一直...</p>\n\n<a 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USD"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2601877535","content_text":"用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶（FSD）、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单，这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益，依旧停留在投机阶段。即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功，也必须正视一个现实：这些领域的竞争都异常激烈，而特斯拉在切入这些赛道时，已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议，导致品牌声誉受损，暴露出显著的核心人物风险。近年来，市场上一直流传着 “过度追求政治正确，终将反噬企业经营” 的说法，而这一道理反过来同样成立。特斯拉因立场问题疏远了至少半数消费者，进而可能损害用户信任 —— 这对公司的发展而言，无疑是一剂毒药。【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】储能业务：装机量增长放缓，单位营收持续下滑接下来聚焦特斯拉的核心实体业务 —— 汽车制造与储能系统。在所有业务指标中，储能装机量（GWh）是特斯拉唯一能拿出手的增长数据。2025 年第四季度，公司储能装机量达到 14.2 吉瓦时的历史新高；全年装机量累计达 46.7 吉瓦时，展现出强劲的扩张态势。但光鲜数据的背后，是同比增速的快速滑落：2025 年储能装机量同比增幅为 49%，远低于 2024 年的 114% 与 2023 年的 126%。市场预测，到 2029 年，这一增速将进一步放缓至 26%，对应装机量约 141.8 吉瓦时。与装机量增速放缓相伴而来的，是单位装机量营收的持续走低。2020 至 2021 年，特斯拉每吉瓦时储能装机量能创造近 7 亿美元的营收；而到了 2025 年第二季度，这一数值已腰斩过半，降至 2.89 亿美元；第三季度进一步下滑至 2.76 亿美元。值得注意的是，过去五个季度里，储能业务的毛利率基本稳定在 25% 至 31% 的区间。综上，储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块，但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。汽车业务：交付量下滑叠加售价走低，内外承压无论市场如何炒作新概念，汽车销售仍是特斯拉的核心支柱业务。已有大量报道指出，2025 年第四季度，特斯拉汽车交付量同比暴跌 16%；全年交付量同比下降 9%，创下公司史上最差的季度同比表现，同时也是连续第二个财年交付量下滑。此外，根据分析师的测算，截至 2025 年第三季度，特斯拉汽车的过去十二个月（TTM）平均售价已跌破 4 万美元。市场预测，到 2029 年，特斯拉汽车年交付量有望达到 300 万辆，较 2025 年的 160 万辆实现增长。但这一目标的可行性，分析师深表怀疑 —— 毕竟，特斯拉正面临日益激烈的市场竞争。即便我们姑且认可这一偏乐观的预测，其对应的 2029 年交付量同比增速也仅为 28%，与 2023 年之前的高速增长时代相去甚远。要知道，彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。从区域市场的表现中，我们更能直观感受到特斯拉的困境。2025 年 11 月，中国新能源汽车市场整体销量同比增长 21%，小米等中国本土品牌的交付量更是实现翻倍，而特斯拉在华销量却陷入同比停滞。放眼全球市场，2025 年比亚迪的纯电动汽车销量已大幅超越特斯拉。而在欧洲市场，马斯克的立场引发了消费者的强烈抵触：2025 年 12 月，特斯拉在瑞典、法国、西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙的新车注册量同比分别暴跌 71%、66%、44%、28% 和 13%。从欧洲主要市场的全年数据初步判断，特斯拉 2025 年的注册量同比降幅约为 25%，市场份额持续萎缩。雪上加霜的是，受美国本土政策支持力度减弱等因素影响，2026 年全球新能源汽车销量的整体增速预计将显著放缓。估值泡沫：人形机器人预期已被过度透支我们不妨暂且采信马斯克的说法 —— 预计到 2026 或 2027 年，特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的销量将突破 100 万台，单价或达 2.25 万美元，对应潜在营收约 225 亿美元。但从下图的市场一致预期中可以看出，这部分潜在营收早已被完全计入当前估值。在覆盖特斯拉的 34 位分析师中，最乐观的预测认为，公司 2027 年的年化营收将较 2025 年增长 720 亿美元。由此可见，市场对特斯拉的预期已然达到了 “只能成功、不能失败” 的极端程度。即便以这份极度乐观的 2027 年营收预期为基准，特斯拉当前对应的远期市盈率仍高达 147 倍。在之前的分析中，分析师曾从多个角度拆解特斯拉的估值，结论早已不言而喻：其估值水平早已脱离基本面，荒谬至极。而时至今日，这一结论依然成立。数据来源：营收预期（Seeking Alpha）结语在竞争白热化的新能源汽车市场，特斯拉正面临交付量下滑与售价走低的双重压力；储能业务虽有增长，但增速放缓、单位营收下滑的隐忧日益凸显。人形机器人等新兴业务的潜在收益，早已被市场透支殆尽，当前估值完全建立在充满不确定性的预期之上。更致命的是，创始人的政治立场引发的品牌声誉危机，以及由此带来的核心人物风险，正在持续损害公司的用户基础与市场竞争力。综合来看，特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业，反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。对投资者而言，现在正是最后的离场时机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":518920227709360,"gmtCreate":1767664291300,"gmtModify":1767664293379,"author":{"id":"38220067823223","authorId":"38220067823223","name":"optioncao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ecb563d4e3667cbc1b3657debd5f07b","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"38220067823223","authorIdStr":"38220067823223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$&nbsp;</a> 收账5-5.5%。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$&nbsp;</a> 收账5-5.5%。","text":"$百度集团-SW(09888)$ 收账5-5.5%。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/518920227709360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":514640378184168,"gmtCreate":1766674987730,"gmtModify":1766676477452,"author":{"id":"38220067823223","authorId":"38220067823223","name":"optioncao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ecb563d4e3667cbc1b3657debd5f07b","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"38220067823223","authorIdStr":"38220067823223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"二货，还用汽车估值。[贱笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"二货，还用汽车估值。[贱笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"二货，还用汽车估值。[贱笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/514640378184168","repostId":"2594625231","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2594625231","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1766656856,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2594625231?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-25 18:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2594625231","media":"调研纪要杂货铺","summary":"瑞银最新研报给特斯拉泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元，并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。","content":"<html><body><article><p>瑞银最新研报给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。</p><p><strong>��</strong>核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%</p><p>瑞银下调Q4交付预期至41.5万辆，核心原因是主要市场需求分化：</p><p>•<strong>美国市场拖累显著</strong>：9月底7500美元电动车税收抵免到期，导致需求提前透支，Q4美国销量预计环比暴跌超35%、同比降25%，可能创下多年来单季度销量新低；尽管特斯拉推出0%年<span>利率</span>贷款、FSD转让等优惠政策，但新低价车型的增量需求仅部分抵消下滑；</p><p>•<strong>欧洲市场环比回暖</strong>：前两个月交付量环比增长31%，预计全季度交付约7万辆，但同比仍降15%；挪威因增值税豁免政策调整，出现需求提前释放现象；</p><p>•<strong>中国市场温和回升</strong>：预计环比增长中低个位数，但同比仍降10%；前两个月零售销量环比仅增1%，不过12月作为传统销售旺季，交付量有望显著提升，Model Y长续航版需求旺盛，订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月；</p><p>•<strong>其他市场波动</strong>：土耳其因税收优惠取消，Q4交付近乎停滞；韩国市场虽同比增长显著，但环比仍有下滑。</p><p>整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。</p><p><strong>��</strong>财务展望：利润率持续承压，估值偏高</p><p>瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度：</p><p>•预计2025年稀释后<span>每股收益</span>（EPS）为1.53美元，2026年微增至1.58美元，低于市场共识；</p><p>•利润率持续收窄：2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%，2026年进一步降至5.7%，较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑；</p><p>•估值吸引力不足：当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平，瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。</p><p><strong>️</strong>主要风险与潜在机遇</p><p><strong>下行风险</strong></p><p>1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期；</p><p>2.成本控制效果不佳，供应链风险加剧；</p><p>3.产能扩张进度滞后，市场竞争白热化；</p><p>4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。</p><p><strong>上行催化剂</strong></p><p>1.机器人出租车（Cybercab）推进：2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程（SOP），奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员；</p><p>2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地；</p><p>3.能源存储业务持续增长，2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh，环比增长6%。</p><p><strong>��</strong>区域市场动态：价格稳定，交付周期分化</p><p>•<strong>价格方面</strong>：11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳，中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%，欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调；</p><p>•<strong>交付周期</strong>：美国市场Model Y交付周期缩短至29天，中国市场则延长至39天，德国、法国等欧洲市场交付周期维持在50天以上，反映不同区域供需差异。</p><p><strong>��</strong>互动时间</p><p>你认为特斯拉Q4交付量能达到瑞银预测的41.5万辆吗？随着税收抵免退坡，美国市场需求会持续疲软吗？机器人出租车和Optimus机器人能否成为特斯拉股价的“救命稻草”？</p><p>欢迎在评论区留下你的观点～觉得这份深度解读有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注新能源和科技股的朋友，一起探讨特斯拉的短期压力与长期机遇！</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-25 18:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b><strong>调研纪要杂货铺</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>瑞银最新研报给特斯拉（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。��核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%瑞银下调Q4交付预期至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND 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INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2594625231","content_text":"瑞银最新研报给特斯拉（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。��核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%瑞银下调Q4交付预期至41.5万辆，核心原因是主要市场需求分化：•美国市场拖累显著：9月底7500美元电动车税收抵免到期，导致需求提前透支，Q4美国销量预计环比暴跌超35%、同比降25%，可能创下多年来单季度销量新低；尽管特斯拉推出0%年利率贷款、FSD转让等优惠政策，但新低价车型的增量需求仅部分抵消下滑；•欧洲市场环比回暖：前两个月交付量环比增长31%，预计全季度交付约7万辆，但同比仍降15%；挪威因增值税豁免政策调整，出现需求提前释放现象；•中国市场温和回升：预计环比增长中低个位数，但同比仍降10%；前两个月零售销量环比仅增1%，不过12月作为传统销售旺季，交付量有望显著提升，Model Y长续航版需求旺盛，订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月；•其他市场波动：土耳其因税收优惠取消，Q4交付近乎停滞；韩国市场虽同比增长显著，但环比仍有下滑。整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。��财务展望：利润率持续承压，估值偏高瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度：•预计2025年稀释后每股收益（EPS）为1.53美元，2026年微增至1.58美元，低于市场共识；•利润率持续收窄：2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%，2026年进一步降至5.7%，较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑；•估值吸引力不足：当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平，瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。️主要风险与潜在机遇下行风险1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期；2.成本控制效果不佳，供应链风险加剧；3.产能扩张进度滞后，市场竞争白热化；4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。上行催化剂1.机器人出租车（Cybercab）推进：2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程（SOP），奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员；2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地；3.能源存储业务持续增长，2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh，环比增长6%。��区域市场动态：价格稳定，交付周期分化•价格方面：11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳，中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%，欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调；•交付周期：美国市场Model 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14:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"没被英伟达财报说服？“大空头”继续炮轰AI：真实需求“少得可笑”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2584907013","media":"金十数据","summary":"伯里已披露做空英伟达和Palantir的头寸，并多次指责大型AI支出公司歪曲数据中心折旧以夸大收益。他的最新警告是在英伟达发布强于预期的第三季度业绩并发布由持续AI驱动需求支持的乐观展望后仅几小时发出的。英伟达CEO黄仁勋驳斥了关于AI泡沫的猜测，称其需求基础超出了超大规模数据中心运营商。尽管伯里发出警告，但英伟达股价在盘后交易中仍上涨超过5%，提振了更广泛的科技和AI股票，并推高了美国股指期货。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>AI播客：换个方式听新闻</strong>下载mp3音频由扣子空间生成</p><p>电影《大空头》原型人物迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）当地时间周三晚间发出尖锐警告，声称<strong>人工智能（AI）的真实终端用户需求远低于各大科技公司所报告的规模</strong>。这一评论是在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>发布又一轮亮眼的季度财报、引发全球科技股反弹后不久发表的。</p><p>这位因准确预测2008年次贷危机而闻名的知名投资者分享了一张图表，突出显示了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>（MSFT）、OpenAI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>（ORCL）和英伟达（NVDA）等主要科技巨头之间的AI投资协议。在图片旁边，他指责其中几家公司存在“可疑的收入确认”行为，暗示他们报告的增长可能并未反映真正的市场需求。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251120140142289d201nx50w2rwmvm\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251120140143483d2012m5vzpnj30d\"/><p>伯里认为，<strong>未来的观察者回顾这段时期时，会将当前的AI热潮视为欺诈而非变革。</strong>他认为<strong>“真实的终端需求少得可笑”</strong>，并声称<strong>许多推动AI增长的客户本身就由向他们销售AI技术的公司资助——描绘了一个自我强化的循环，而非可持续的普及应用。</strong></p><p>在后续帖子中，伯里称OpenAI是整个AI繁荣的“关键支柱”，并质疑这家初创公司审计师的可信度。自11月公开回归以来，他的这些警告延续了一系列对AI驱动的科技估值飙升的怀疑言论。伯里已披露做空英伟达和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>的头寸，并多次指责大型AI支出公司歪曲数据中心折旧以夸大收益。</p><p>他的最新警告是在英伟达发布强于预期的第三季度业绩并发布由持续AI驱动需求支持的乐观展望后仅几小时发出的。英伟达CEO黄仁勋驳斥了关于AI泡沫的猜测，称其需求基础超出了超大规模数据中心运营商。</p><p>尽管伯里发出警告，但英伟达股价在盘后交易中仍上涨超过5%，提振了更广泛的科技和AI股票，并推高了美国<span>股指期货</span>。</p><p>伯里本周早些时候表示，虽然他的对冲基金公司Scion Asset Management已办理注销注册，但<strong>他仍活跃于市场。</strong></p><p>“这最后一次的尝试本质上就是一个亲朋好友共同拥有的基金。”他在周二写道，“我没有像大多数人那样进行市场推广或管理，也没有试图通过引入我不认识的投资者来扩大<span>资产</span>规模。我不想再次遇到像创办Scion Capital时那样的问题。”</p><p>“我仍在管理我的资金并活跃于市场，”他补充道。</p><p>这位对冲基金经理在2008年成功做空美国住房市场后关闭了之前的公司Scion Capital，并于2013年开设了Scion Asset Management。不久前Scion Asset Management已终止在美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的注册状态，他在X上发帖表示“11月25日将去做更好的事”。</p><p>“我很高兴摆脱合规负担和我的文件引发的广泛误解，”伯里周二写道。“Scion Asset Management并没有关闭，因为它也是我运行其他投资项目的工具。它不再是RIA（注册投资顾问），也不再为外部投资者管理基金。”</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>没被英伟达财报说服？“大空头”继续炮轰AI：真实需求“少得可笑”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n没被英伟达财报说服？“大空头”继续炮轰AI：真实需求“少得可笑”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-20 14:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251120140150a4ae7c32&s=b><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AI播客：换个方式听新闻下载mp3音频由扣子空间生成电影《大空头》原型人物迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）当地时间周三晚间发出尖锐警告，声称人工智能（AI）的真实终端用户需求远低于各大科技公司所报告的规模。这一评论是在英伟达发布又一轮亮眼的季度财报、引发全球科技股反弹后不久发表的。这位因准确预测2008年次贷危机而闻名的知名投资者分享了一张图表，突出显示了微软（MSFT）、OpenAI、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251120140150a4ae7c32&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ORCL":"甲骨文","MSFT":"微软","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251120140150a4ae7c32&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2584907013","content_text":"AI播客：换个方式听新闻下载mp3音频由扣子空间生成电影《大空头》原型人物迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）当地时间周三晚间发出尖锐警告，声称人工智能（AI）的真实终端用户需求远低于各大科技公司所报告的规模。这一评论是在英伟达发布又一轮亮眼的季度财报、引发全球科技股反弹后不久发表的。这位因准确预测2008年次贷危机而闻名的知名投资者分享了一张图表，突出显示了微软（MSFT）、OpenAI、甲骨文（ORCL）和英伟达（NVDA）等主要科技巨头之间的AI投资协议。在图片旁边，他指责其中几家公司存在“可疑的收入确认”行为，暗示他们报告的增长可能并未反映真正的市场需求。伯里认为，未来的观察者回顾这段时期时，会将当前的AI热潮视为欺诈而非变革。他认为“真实的终端需求少得可笑”，并声称许多推动AI增长的客户本身就由向他们销售AI技术的公司资助——描绘了一个自我强化的循环，而非可持续的普及应用。在后续帖子中，伯里称OpenAI是整个AI繁荣的“关键支柱”，并质疑这家初创公司审计师的可信度。自11月公开回归以来，他的这些警告延续了一系列对AI驱动的科技估值飙升的怀疑言论。伯里已披露做空英伟达和Palantir的头寸，并多次指责大型AI支出公司歪曲数据中心折旧以夸大收益。他的最新警告是在英伟达发布强于预期的第三季度业绩并发布由持续AI驱动需求支持的乐观展望后仅几小时发出的。英伟达CEO黄仁勋驳斥了关于AI泡沫的猜测，称其需求基础超出了超大规模数据中心运营商。尽管伯里发出警告，但英伟达股价在盘后交易中仍上涨超过5%，提振了更广泛的科技和AI股票，并推高了美国股指期货。伯里本周早些时候表示，虽然他的对冲基金公司Scion Asset Management已办理注销注册，但他仍活跃于市场。“这最后一次的尝试本质上就是一个亲朋好友共同拥有的基金。”他在周二写道，“我没有像大多数人那样进行市场推广或管理，也没有试图通过引入我不认识的投资者来扩大资产规模。我不想再次遇到像创办Scion Capital时那样的问题。”“我仍在管理我的资金并活跃于市场，”他补充道。这位对冲基金经理在2008年成功做空美国住房市场后关闭了之前的公司Scion Capital，并于2013年开设了Scion Asset Management。不久前Scion Asset Management已终止在美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的注册状态，他在X上发帖表示“11月25日将去做更好的事”。“我很高兴摆脱合规负担和我的文件引发的广泛误解，”伯里周二写道。“Scion Asset Management并没有关闭，因为它也是我运行其他投资项目的工具。它不再是RIA（注册投资顾问），也不再为外部投资者管理基金。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ORCL":0.9,"NVDA":1.5,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":746,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502153602831216,"gmtCreate":1763614814399,"gmtModify":1763614816616,"author":{"id":"38220067823223","authorId":"38220067823223","name":"optioncao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ecb563d4e3667cbc1b3657debd5f07b","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"38220067823223","authorIdStr":"38220067823223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"820吧，行吗","listText":"820吧，行吗","text":"820吧，行吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502153602831216","repostId":"2584904560","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2584904560","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1763613286,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2584904560?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-20 12:34","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"美利亚斯研究：上调英伟达目标价至320美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2584904560","media":"格隆汇","summary":"美利亚斯研究公司将英伟达公司目标价从300美元上调至320美元。","content":"<html><body><p>美利亚斯研究公司将英伟达公司目标价从300美元上调至320美元。</p></body></html>","source":"live_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美利亚斯研究：上调英伟达目标价至320美元</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美利亚斯研究：上调英伟达目标价至320美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-20 12:34 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美利亚斯研究公司将英伟达公司目标价从300美元上调至320美元。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/rss/live/live.xml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2286300806.USD":"Allianz Cyber Security AT Acc 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12:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"一个时代即将结束，蒂姆·库克将卸任","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2583663685","media":"财经实验室TheF...","summary":"一个时代即将结束，蒂姆·库克将卸任。在史蒂夫·乔布斯因癌症去世后，蒂姆·库克接掌了苹果的领导权，并将其打造为如今这样一家科技巨头。库克常被批评缺乏乔布斯那种创造力与天才气质——这确实没错。但库克的独到之处在于，他在扩展供应链、将苹果打造为全球制造体系中的超级巨头方面展现出了惊人的才能；精益、高效、稳定，这正是库克的天赋。因此，仅仅把他与乔布斯对比来批评他，显得过于简单粗暴。随着库克的离任，一个时代落幕。谁将接任仍未可知。“在苹果公布下一份财报之前（预计在1月底，涵盖最关键的假日季度），公司很可能不会公布下一任 CEO。”","content":"<html><body><article><p>一个时代即将结束，蒂姆·库克将卸任。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251116122123980v15268aw3qag6oz\"/><p>在史蒂夫·乔布斯因癌症去世后，蒂姆·库克接掌了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>的领导权，并将其打造为如今这样一家科技巨头。</p><p>库克常被批评缺乏乔布斯那种创造力与天才气质——这确实没错。但库克的独到之处在于，他在扩展供应链、将苹果打造为全球制造体系中的超级巨头方面展现出了惊人的才能；精益、高效、稳定，这正是库克的天赋。因此，仅仅把他与乔布斯对比来批评他，显得过于简单粗暴。</p><p>随着库克的离任，一个时代落幕。谁将接任仍未可知。“在苹果公布下一份财报之前（预计在1月底，涵盖最关键的假日季度），公司很可能不会公布下一任 CEO。”</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251116122130a6fc7b83&s=b><strong>财经实验室TheF...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一个时代即将结束，蒂姆·库克将卸任。在史蒂夫·乔布斯因癌症去世后，蒂姆·库克接掌了苹果的领导权，并将其打造为如今这样一家科技巨头。库克常被批评缺乏乔布斯那种创造力与天才气质——这确实没错。但库克的独到之处在于，他在扩展供应链、将苹果打造为全球制造体系中的超级巨头方面展现出了惊人的才能；精益、高效、稳定，这正是库克的天赋。因此，仅仅把他与乔布斯对比来批评他，显得过于简单粗暴。随着库克的离任，一个时代...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251116122130a6fc7b83&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","LU0069063385.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU2361044865.SGD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 马斯克吹牛逼学费已交，13600元。我是铁粉[龇牙]&nbsp;&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 马斯克吹牛逼学费已交，13600元。我是铁粉[龇牙]&nbsp;&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;&nbsp;[龇牙]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 马斯克吹牛逼学费已交，13600元。我是铁粉[龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙] [龇牙]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e047e634351df70033ceebf3b7b21679","width":"1220","height":"1719"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/500263218479128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4815,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4174803753725142","authorId":"4174803753725142","name":"坡县天才","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdaff66eb519833ab087c465bf35c1aa","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4174803753725142","idStr":"4174803753725142"},"content":"单位：USD 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277%，比特帝国初战告捷","text":"$BABA 20250912 152.5 CALL$ 277%，比特帝国初战告捷","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfdcaa818a098e556bc83493805c9507","width":"1006","height":"1808"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/477092838182968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":519518804910408,"gmtCreate":1767856971558,"gmtModify":1767858042238,"author":{"id":"38220067823223","authorId":"38220067823223","name":"optioncao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ecb563d4e3667cbc1b3657debd5f07b","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"38220067823223","idStr":"38220067823223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这个二货，也适合2019年特斯拉破产边缘，看空","listText":"这个二货，也适合2019年特斯拉破产边缘，看空","text":"这个二货，也适合2019年特斯拉破产边缘，看空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/519518804910408","repostId":"2601877535","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2601877535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1767784565,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2601877535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-07 19:16","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2601877535","media":"美股研究社","summary":"综上，储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块，但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。要知道，彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。综合来看，特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业，反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险</strong></p><p>我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶（FSD）、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单，这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益，依旧停留在投机阶段。</p><p>即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功，也必须正视一个现实：这些领域的竞争都异常激烈，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在切入这些赛道时，已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议，导致品牌声誉受损，暴露出显著的<strong>核心人物风险</strong>。近年来，市场上一直流传着 “过度追求政治正确，终将反噬企业经营” 的说法，而这一道理反过来同样成立。特斯拉因立场问题疏远了至少半数消费者，进而可能损害用户信任 —— 这对公司的发展而言，无疑是一剂毒药。</p><img src=\"\"/><p>【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLcrVAEs2bhwIEUP4FfvianI8UkwWsmGS8QGt9FUCfIVia1npfInK1SOWWQ/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>储能业务：</strong></p><p><strong>装机量增长放缓，单位营收持续下滑</strong></p><p>接下来聚焦特斯拉的核心实体业务 —— 汽车制造与储能系统。在所有业务指标中，储能装机量（GWh）是特斯拉唯一能拿出手的增长数据。2025 年第四季度，公司储能装机量达到 14.2 吉瓦时的历史新高；全年装机量累计达 46.7 吉瓦时，展现出强劲的扩张态势。</p><p>但光鲜数据的背后，是<strong>同比增速的快速滑落</strong>：2025 年储能装机量同比增幅为 49%，远低于 2024 年的 114% 与 2023 年的 126%。市场预测，到 2029 年，这一增速将进一步放缓至 26%，对应装机量约 141.8 吉瓦时。</p><p>与装机量增速放缓相伴而来的，是<strong>单位装机量营收的持续走低</strong>。2020 至 2021 年，特斯拉每吉瓦时储能装机量能创造近 7 亿美元的营收；而到了 2025 年第二季度，这一数值已腰斩过半，降至 2.89 亿美元；第三季度进一步下滑至 2.76 亿美元。值得注意的是，过去五个季度里，储能业务的毛利率基本稳定在 25% 至 31% 的区间。</p><p>综上，储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块，但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLczbSMU66CbrBjDq7jpr5zsiclLE4DkRGuL9TVwK0r2tbvibNaKK4AzxHw/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>汽车业务：</strong></p><p><strong>交付量下滑叠加售价走低，内外承压</strong></p><p>无论市场如何炒作新概念，汽车销售仍是特斯拉的核心支柱业务。已有大量报道指出，2025 年第四季度，特斯拉汽车交付量同比暴跌 16%；全年交付量同比下降 9%，创下公司史上最差的季度同比表现，同时也是连续第二个财年交付量下滑。</p><p>此外，根据分析师的测算，截至 2025 年第三季度，特斯拉汽车的过去十二个月（TTM）平均售价已<span>跌破</span> 4 万美元。</p><p>市场预测，到 2029 年，特斯拉汽车年交付量有望达到 300 万辆，较 2025 年的 160 万辆实现增长。但这一目标的可行性，分析师深表怀疑 —— 毕竟，特斯拉正面临日益激烈的市场竞争。即便我们姑且认可这一偏乐观的预测，其对应的 2029 年交付量同比增速也仅为 28%，与 2023 年之前的高速增长时代相去甚远。要知道，彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。</p><p>从区域市场的表现中，我们更能直观感受到特斯拉的困境。2025 年 11 月，中国新能源汽车市场整体销量同比增长 21%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>等中国本土品牌的交付量更是实现翻倍，而特斯拉在华销量却陷入同比停滞。</p><p>放眼全球市场，2025 年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BYDDY\">比亚迪</a>的纯电动汽车销量已大幅超越特斯拉。而在欧洲市场，马斯克的立场引发了消费者的强烈抵触：2025 年 12 月，特斯拉在瑞典、法国、西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙的新车注册量同比分别暴跌 71%、66%、44%、28% 和 13%。从欧洲主要市场的全年数据初步判断，特斯拉 2025 年的注册量同比降幅约为 25%，市场份额持续萎缩。</p><p>雪上加霜的是，受美国本土政策支持力度减弱等因素影响，2026 年全球新能源汽车销量的整体增速预计将显著放缓。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdKBibR2JMaxUNVoEYIawaicLciaWMQ0QPFPFmoNQtcVWichXhCuZB2x0BS879mNfIl6Lz8r5HIRlqLj6w/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>估值泡沫：</strong></p><p><strong>人形机器人预期已被过度透支</strong></p><p>我们不妨暂且采信马斯克的说法 —— 预计到 2026 或 2027 年，特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的销量将突破 100 万台，单价或达 2.25 万美元，对应潜在营收约 225 亿美元。</p><p>但从下图的市场一致预期中可以看出，这部分潜在营收早已被<strong>完全计入当前估值</strong>。在覆盖特斯拉的 34 位分析师中，最乐观的预测认为，公司 2027 年的年化营收将较 2025 年增长 720 亿美元。由此可见，市场对特斯拉的预期已然达到了 “只能成功、不能失败” 的极端程度。</p><p>即便以这份极度乐观的 2027 年营收预期为基准，特斯拉当前对应的远期市盈率仍高达 147 倍。在之前的分析中，分析师曾从多个角度拆解特斯拉的估值，结论早已不言而喻：其估值水平早已脱离基本面，荒谬至极。而时至今日，这一结论依然成立。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdKLTlW17KYicXbduwZsUSFEKA3QhDoZBDRLD4pI17USiafzA7ib7ZgicBniaIKocAFvdFCDFy7DSsRicKibw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p>数据来源：营收预期（Seeking Alpha）</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/dR7EpbvovdJ3W4gruZ6lz6pj1cuQvXYHzFTgv6zBDxN3hjm1PtXPLNKCakI3eyW9mPqibvjCvXwDia0vaM9Nht8w/640?wx_fmt=png&amp;from=appmsg\"/><p><strong>结语</strong></p><p>在竞争白热化的新能源汽车市场，特斯拉正面临交付量下滑与售价走低的双重压力；储能业务虽有增长，但增速放缓、单位营收下滑的隐忧日益凸显。人形机器人等新兴业务的潜在收益，早已被市场透支殆尽，当前估值完全建立在充满不确定性的预期之上。</p><p>更致命的是，创始人的政治立场引发的品牌声誉危机，以及由此带来的核心人物风险，正在持续损害公司的用户基础与市场竞争力。</p><p>综合来看，特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业，反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。对投资者而言，现在正是最后的离场时机。</p><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdJlQNwm5fnHWnfblqB1P5B3gLTjg6j6dT5IyOFclcldYqPQickKMUqicdaXvibXdEb4OibV97CAwGO6TQ/640?wx_fmt=other&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;tp=webp#imgIndex=5\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/dR7EpbvovdKnkt8t5QpwjNQOKyGlZz4SFiacicdM3aP4hZVCfGia7HbIYBoDxz2gubPAgoXDXhfrcLIfT2eG92icfw/640?wx_fmt=other&amp;from=appmsg&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;tp=webp#imgIndex=6\"/><img src=\"https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_gif/dR7EpbvovdLt0fplojSTcIf4vTY1fP5f5VhIsL3QI5iaHIficMHKVzpaxPOM0yB24Zgs1PJlLHXFs5UXKRic0iaTxA/640?wx_fmt=gif&amp;from=appmsg&amp;wxfrom=5&amp;wx_lazy=1&amp;tp=webp#imgIndex=7\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉：一家或将陷入衰退的成长型企业\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-07 19:16 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b><strong>美股研究社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶（FSD）、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单，这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益，依旧停留在投机阶段。即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功，也必须正视一个现实：这些领域的竞争都异常激烈，而特斯拉在切入这些赛道时，已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议，导致品牌声誉受损，暴露出显著的核心人物风险。近年来，市场上一直...</p>\n\n<a 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USD"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260107192635a4a7912b&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2601877535","content_text":"用户群体的疏远与核心人物风险我们不会深入探讨多头最看重的三大炒作概念 —— 完全自动驾驶（FSD）、人工智能与机器人技术。原因很简单，这三项业务至今均未产生实质性的财务收益，依旧停留在投机阶段。即便未来其中一项或多项业务能够取得成功，也必须正视一个现实：这些领域的竞争都异常激烈，而特斯拉在切入这些赛道时，已然因创始人的政治立场卷入争议，导致品牌声誉受损，暴露出显著的核心人物风险。近年来，市场上一直流传着 “过度追求政治正确，终将反噬企业经营” 的说法，而这一道理反过来同样成立。特斯拉因立场问题疏远了至少半数消费者，进而可能损害用户信任 —— 这对公司的发展而言，无疑是一剂毒药。【如需和我们交流可扫码添加进社群】储能业务：装机量增长放缓，单位营收持续下滑接下来聚焦特斯拉的核心实体业务 —— 汽车制造与储能系统。在所有业务指标中，储能装机量（GWh）是特斯拉唯一能拿出手的增长数据。2025 年第四季度，公司储能装机量达到 14.2 吉瓦时的历史新高；全年装机量累计达 46.7 吉瓦时，展现出强劲的扩张态势。但光鲜数据的背后，是同比增速的快速滑落：2025 年储能装机量同比增幅为 49%，远低于 2024 年的 114% 与 2023 年的 126%。市场预测，到 2029 年，这一增速将进一步放缓至 26%，对应装机量约 141.8 吉瓦时。与装机量增速放缓相伴而来的，是单位装机量营收的持续走低。2020 至 2021 年，特斯拉每吉瓦时储能装机量能创造近 7 亿美元的营收；而到了 2025 年第二季度，这一数值已腰斩过半，降至 2.89 亿美元；第三季度进一步下滑至 2.76 亿美元。值得注意的是，过去五个季度里，储能业务的毛利率基本稳定在 25% 至 31% 的区间。综上，储能业务虽是特斯拉目前唯一具备实际增长潜力的板块，但该业务正面临 “装机量增速放缓、单位营收持续下滑” 的双重压力。汽车业务：交付量下滑叠加售价走低，内外承压无论市场如何炒作新概念，汽车销售仍是特斯拉的核心支柱业务。已有大量报道指出，2025 年第四季度，特斯拉汽车交付量同比暴跌 16%；全年交付量同比下降 9%，创下公司史上最差的季度同比表现，同时也是连续第二个财年交付量下滑。此外，根据分析师的测算，截至 2025 年第三季度，特斯拉汽车的过去十二个月（TTM）平均售价已跌破 4 万美元。市场预测，到 2029 年，特斯拉汽车年交付量有望达到 300 万辆，较 2025 年的 160 万辆实现增长。但这一目标的可行性，分析师深表怀疑 —— 毕竟，特斯拉正面临日益激烈的市场竞争。即便我们姑且认可这一偏乐观的预测，其对应的 2029 年交付量同比增速也仅为 28%，与 2023 年之前的高速增长时代相去甚远。要知道，彼时特斯拉尚未遭遇如此严重的声誉危机与竞争压力。从区域市场的表现中，我们更能直观感受到特斯拉的困境。2025 年 11 月，中国新能源汽车市场整体销量同比增长 21%，小米等中国本土品牌的交付量更是实现翻倍，而特斯拉在华销量却陷入同比停滞。放眼全球市场，2025 年比亚迪的纯电动汽车销量已大幅超越特斯拉。而在欧洲市场，马斯克的立场引发了消费者的强烈抵触：2025 年 12 月，特斯拉在瑞典、法国、西班牙、比利时、葡萄牙的新车注册量同比分别暴跌 71%、66%、44%、28% 和 13%。从欧洲主要市场的全年数据初步判断，特斯拉 2025 年的注册量同比降幅约为 25%，市场份额持续萎缩。雪上加霜的是，受美国本土政策支持力度减弱等因素影响，2026 年全球新能源汽车销量的整体增速预计将显著放缓。估值泡沫：人形机器人预期已被过度透支我们不妨暂且采信马斯克的说法 —— 预计到 2026 或 2027 年，特斯拉 Optimus 人形机器人的销量将突破 100 万台，单价或达 2.25 万美元，对应潜在营收约 225 亿美元。但从下图的市场一致预期中可以看出，这部分潜在营收早已被完全计入当前估值。在覆盖特斯拉的 34 位分析师中，最乐观的预测认为，公司 2027 年的年化营收将较 2025 年增长 720 亿美元。由此可见，市场对特斯拉的预期已然达到了 “只能成功、不能失败” 的极端程度。即便以这份极度乐观的 2027 年营收预期为基准，特斯拉当前对应的远期市盈率仍高达 147 倍。在之前的分析中，分析师曾从多个角度拆解特斯拉的估值，结论早已不言而喻：其估值水平早已脱离基本面，荒谬至极。而时至今日，这一结论依然成立。数据来源：营收预期（Seeking Alpha）结语在竞争白热化的新能源汽车市场，特斯拉正面临交付量下滑与售价走低的双重压力；储能业务虽有增长，但增速放缓、单位营收下滑的隐忧日益凸显。人形机器人等新兴业务的潜在收益，早已被市场透支殆尽，当前估值完全建立在充满不确定性的预期之上。更致命的是，创始人的政治立场引发的品牌声誉危机，以及由此带来的核心人物风险，正在持续损害公司的用户基础与市场竞争力。综合来看，特斯拉已不再是一家高速成长的企业，反而是正陷入衰退的泥潭。对投资者而言，现在正是最后的离场时机。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLA":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":58,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":518920227709360,"gmtCreate":1767664291300,"gmtModify":1767664293379,"author":{"id":"38220067823223","authorId":"38220067823223","name":"optioncao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ecb563d4e3667cbc1b3657debd5f07b","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"38220067823223","idStr":"38220067823223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$&nbsp;</a> 收账5-5.5%。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$&nbsp;</a> 收账5-5.5%。","text":"$百度集团-SW(09888)$ 收账5-5.5%。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/518920227709360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":514640378184168,"gmtCreate":1766674987730,"gmtModify":1766676477452,"author":{"id":"38220067823223","authorId":"38220067823223","name":"optioncao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ecb563d4e3667cbc1b3657debd5f07b","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"38220067823223","idStr":"38220067823223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"二货，还用汽车估值。[贱笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"二货，还用汽车估值。[贱笑]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"二货，还用汽车估值。[贱笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/514640378184168","repostId":"2594625231","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2594625231","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1766656856,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2594625231?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-25 18:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2594625231","media":"调研纪要杂货铺","summary":"瑞银最新研报给特斯拉泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元，并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。","content":"<html><body><article><p>瑞银最新研报给<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。</p><p><strong>��</strong>核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%</p><p>瑞银下调Q4交付预期至41.5万辆，核心原因是主要市场需求分化：</p><p>•<strong>美国市场拖累显著</strong>：9月底7500美元电动车税收抵免到期，导致需求提前透支，Q4美国销量预计环比暴跌超35%、同比降25%，可能创下多年来单季度销量新低；尽管特斯拉推出0%年<span>利率</span>贷款、FSD转让等优惠政策，但新低价车型的增量需求仅部分抵消下滑；</p><p>•<strong>欧洲市场环比回暖</strong>：前两个月交付量环比增长31%，预计全季度交付约7万辆，但同比仍降15%；挪威因增值税豁免政策调整，出现需求提前释放现象；</p><p>•<strong>中国市场温和回升</strong>：预计环比增长中低个位数，但同比仍降10%；前两个月零售销量环比仅增1%，不过12月作为传统销售旺季，交付量有望显著提升，Model Y长续航版需求旺盛，订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月；</p><p>•<strong>其他市场波动</strong>：土耳其因税收优惠取消，Q4交付近乎停滞；韩国市场虽同比增长显著，但环比仍有下滑。</p><p>整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。</p><p><strong>��</strong>财务展望：利润率持续承压，估值偏高</p><p>瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度：</p><p>•预计2025年稀释后<span>每股收益</span>（EPS）为1.53美元，2026年微增至1.58美元，低于市场共识；</p><p>•利润率持续收窄：2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%，2026年进一步降至5.7%，较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑；</p><p>•估值吸引力不足：当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平，瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。</p><p><strong>️</strong>主要风险与潜在机遇</p><p><strong>下行风险</strong></p><p>1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期；</p><p>2.成本控制效果不佳，供应链风险加剧；</p><p>3.产能扩张进度滞后，市场竞争白热化；</p><p>4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。</p><p><strong>上行催化剂</strong></p><p>1.机器人出租车（Cybercab）推进：2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程（SOP），奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员；</p><p>2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地；</p><p>3.能源存储业务持续增长，2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh，环比增长6%。</p><p><strong>��</strong>区域市场动态：价格稳定，交付周期分化</p><p>•<strong>价格方面</strong>：11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳，中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%，欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调；</p><p>•<strong>交付周期</strong>：美国市场Model Y交付周期缩短至29天，中国市场则延长至39天，德国、法国等欧洲市场交付周期维持在50天以上，反映不同区域供需差异。</p><p><strong>��</strong>互动时间</p><p>你认为特斯拉Q4交付量能达到瑞银预测的41.5万辆吗？随着税收抵免退坡，美国市场需求会持续疲软吗？机器人出租车和Optimus机器人能否成为特斯拉股价的“救命稻草”？</p><p>欢迎在评论区留下你的观点～觉得这份深度解读有价值的话，别忘了转发给身边关注新能源和科技股的朋友，一起探讨特斯拉的短期压力与长期机遇！</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞银重磅看空特斯拉！Q4交付预降16%，目标价仅247美元，却暗藏两大催化剂？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-25 18:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b><strong>调研纪要杂货铺</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>瑞银最新研报给特斯拉（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。��核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%瑞银下调Q4交付预期至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU1066051225.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL EQUITY VOLATILITY FOCUSED \"AC\" (USD) ACC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND 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INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251225193024a6ce7302&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2594625231","content_text":"瑞银最新研报给特斯拉（TSLA.O）泼了一盆冷水：给予“卖出”评级，目标价仅247美元（当前股价481.2美元，潜在跌幅48.7%），并预测2025年第四季度交付量为41.5万辆，同比下滑16%、环比下滑17%，低于市场普遍预期的43.5万辆。报告指出，特斯拉短期面临交付压力，但机器人出租车、人形机器人等长期看点仍值得关注。��核心预测：Q4交付承压，2025年销量同比降9%瑞银下调Q4交付预期至41.5万辆，核心原因是主要市场需求分化：•美国市场拖累显著：9月底7500美元电动车税收抵免到期，导致需求提前透支，Q4美国销量预计环比暴跌超35%、同比降25%，可能创下多年来单季度销量新低；尽管特斯拉推出0%年利率贷款、FSD转让等优惠政策，但新低价车型的增量需求仅部分抵消下滑；•欧洲市场环比回暖：前两个月交付量环比增长31%，预计全季度交付约7万辆，但同比仍降15%；挪威因增值税豁免政策调整，出现需求提前释放现象；•中国市场温和回升：预计环比增长中低个位数，但同比仍降10%；前两个月零售销量环比仅增1%，不过12月作为传统销售旺季，交付量有望显著提升，Model Y长续航版需求旺盛，订单交付周期已延长至2026年2月；•其他市场波动：土耳其因税收优惠取消，Q4交付近乎停滞；韩国市场虽同比增长显著，但环比仍有下滑。整体来看，瑞银预测2025年特斯拉总交付量为163万辆，同比下降9%；2026年交付量仅微增至164万辆，远低于市场预期的184万辆。��财务展望：利润率持续承压，估值偏高瑞银对特斯拉的盈利前景也持谨慎态度：•预计2025年稀释后每股收益（EPS）为1.53美元，2026年微增至1.58美元，低于市场共识；•利润率持续收窄：2025年EBIT利润率预计降至6.5%，2026年进一步降至5.7%，较2022年的18.7%大幅下滑；•估值吸引力不足：当前股价对应估值显著高于行业平均水平，瑞银认为其估值尚未充分反映交付放缓和利润率承压的风险。️主要风险与潜在机遇下行风险1.全球电动车渗透率提升速度不及预期；2.成本控制效果不佳，供应链风险加剧；3.产能扩张进度滞后，市场竞争白热化；4.监管政策变化、核心人员变动等不确定性。上行催化剂1.机器人出租车（Cybercab）推进：2026年4月有望推出标准作业流程（SOP），奥斯汀工厂计划移除安全监控员；2.人形机器人Optimus 3量产落地；3.能源存储业务持续增长，2025年Q4预计部署13.2GWh，环比增长6%。��区域市场动态：价格稳定，交付周期分化•价格方面：11月美国市场Model 3/Y价格保持平稳，中国市场Model 3涨价2%、Model Y涨价4%，欧洲多国车型价格也有小幅上调；•交付周期：美国市场Model 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14:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"没被英伟达财报说服？“大空头”继续炮轰AI：真实需求“少得可笑”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2584907013","media":"金十数据","summary":"伯里已披露做空英伟达和Palantir的头寸，并多次指责大型AI支出公司歪曲数据中心折旧以夸大收益。他的最新警告是在英伟达发布强于预期的第三季度业绩并发布由持续AI驱动需求支持的乐观展望后仅几小时发出的。英伟达CEO黄仁勋驳斥了关于AI泡沫的猜测，称其需求基础超出了超大规模数据中心运营商。尽管伯里发出警告，但英伟达股价在盘后交易中仍上涨超过5%，提振了更广泛的科技和AI股票，并推高了美国股指期货。","content":"<html><body><article><p><strong>AI播客：换个方式听新闻</strong>下载mp3音频由扣子空间生成</p><p>电影《大空头》原型人物迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）当地时间周三晚间发出尖锐警告，声称<strong>人工智能（AI）的真实终端用户需求远低于各大科技公司所报告的规模</strong>。这一评论是在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>发布又一轮亮眼的季度财报、引发全球科技股反弹后不久发表的。</p><p>这位因准确预测2008年次贷危机而闻名的知名投资者分享了一张图表，突出显示了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>（MSFT）、OpenAI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>（ORCL）和英伟达（NVDA）等主要科技巨头之间的AI投资协议。在图片旁边，他指责其中几家公司存在“可疑的收入确认”行为，暗示他们报告的增长可能并未反映真正的市场需求。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251120140142289d201nx50w2rwmvm\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251120140143483d2012m5vzpnj30d\"/><p>伯里认为，<strong>未来的观察者回顾这段时期时，会将当前的AI热潮视为欺诈而非变革。</strong>他认为<strong>“真实的终端需求少得可笑”</strong>，并声称<strong>许多推动AI增长的客户本身就由向他们销售AI技术的公司资助——描绘了一个自我强化的循环，而非可持续的普及应用。</strong></p><p>在后续帖子中，伯里称OpenAI是整个AI繁荣的“关键支柱”，并质疑这家初创公司审计师的可信度。自11月公开回归以来，他的这些警告延续了一系列对AI驱动的科技估值飙升的怀疑言论。伯里已披露做空英伟达和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a>的头寸，并多次指责大型AI支出公司歪曲数据中心折旧以夸大收益。</p><p>他的最新警告是在英伟达发布强于预期的第三季度业绩并发布由持续AI驱动需求支持的乐观展望后仅几小时发出的。英伟达CEO黄仁勋驳斥了关于AI泡沫的猜测，称其需求基础超出了超大规模数据中心运营商。</p><p>尽管伯里发出警告，但英伟达股价在盘后交易中仍上涨超过5%，提振了更广泛的科技和AI股票，并推高了美国<span>股指期货</span>。</p><p>伯里本周早些时候表示，虽然他的对冲基金公司Scion Asset Management已办理注销注册，但<strong>他仍活跃于市场。</strong></p><p>“这最后一次的尝试本质上就是一个亲朋好友共同拥有的基金。”他在周二写道，“我没有像大多数人那样进行市场推广或管理，也没有试图通过引入我不认识的投资者来扩大<span>资产</span>规模。我不想再次遇到像创办Scion Capital时那样的问题。”</p><p>“我仍在管理我的资金并活跃于市场，”他补充道。</p><p>这位对冲基金经理在2008年成功做空美国住房市场后关闭了之前的公司Scion Capital，并于2013年开设了Scion Asset Management。不久前Scion Asset Management已终止在美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的注册状态，他在X上发帖表示“11月25日将去做更好的事”。</p><p>“我很高兴摆脱合规负担和我的文件引发的广泛误解，”伯里周二写道。“Scion Asset Management并没有关闭，因为它也是我运行其他投资项目的工具。它不再是RIA（注册投资顾问），也不再为外部投资者管理基金。”</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>没被英伟达财报说服？“大空头”继续炮轰AI：真实需求“少得可笑”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n没被英伟达财报说服？“大空头”继续炮轰AI：真实需求“少得可笑”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-20 14:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251120140150a4ae7c32&s=b><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>AI播客：换个方式听新闻下载mp3音频由扣子空间生成电影《大空头》原型人物迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）当地时间周三晚间发出尖锐警告，声称人工智能（AI）的真实终端用户需求远低于各大科技公司所报告的规模。这一评论是在英伟达发布又一轮亮眼的季度财报、引发全球科技股反弹后不久发表的。这位因准确预测2008年次贷危机而闻名的知名投资者分享了一张图表，突出显示了微软（MSFT）、OpenAI、...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251120140150a4ae7c32&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ORCL":"甲骨文","MSFT":"微软","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251120140150a4ae7c32&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2584907013","content_text":"AI播客：换个方式听新闻下载mp3音频由扣子空间生成电影《大空头》原型人物迈克尔·伯里（Michael Burry）当地时间周三晚间发出尖锐警告，声称人工智能（AI）的真实终端用户需求远低于各大科技公司所报告的规模。这一评论是在英伟达发布又一轮亮眼的季度财报、引发全球科技股反弹后不久发表的。这位因准确预测2008年次贷危机而闻名的知名投资者分享了一张图表，突出显示了微软（MSFT）、OpenAI、甲骨文（ORCL）和英伟达（NVDA）等主要科技巨头之间的AI投资协议。在图片旁边，他指责其中几家公司存在“可疑的收入确认”行为，暗示他们报告的增长可能并未反映真正的市场需求。伯里认为，未来的观察者回顾这段时期时，会将当前的AI热潮视为欺诈而非变革。他认为“真实的终端需求少得可笑”，并声称许多推动AI增长的客户本身就由向他们销售AI技术的公司资助——描绘了一个自我强化的循环，而非可持续的普及应用。在后续帖子中，伯里称OpenAI是整个AI繁荣的“关键支柱”，并质疑这家初创公司审计师的可信度。自11月公开回归以来，他的这些警告延续了一系列对AI驱动的科技估值飙升的怀疑言论。伯里已披露做空英伟达和Palantir的头寸，并多次指责大型AI支出公司歪曲数据中心折旧以夸大收益。他的最新警告是在英伟达发布强于预期的第三季度业绩并发布由持续AI驱动需求支持的乐观展望后仅几小时发出的。英伟达CEO黄仁勋驳斥了关于AI泡沫的猜测，称其需求基础超出了超大规模数据中心运营商。尽管伯里发出警告，但英伟达股价在盘后交易中仍上涨超过5%，提振了更广泛的科技和AI股票，并推高了美国股指期货。伯里本周早些时候表示，虽然他的对冲基金公司Scion Asset Management已办理注销注册，但他仍活跃于市场。“这最后一次的尝试本质上就是一个亲朋好友共同拥有的基金。”他在周二写道，“我没有像大多数人那样进行市场推广或管理，也没有试图通过引入我不认识的投资者来扩大资产规模。我不想再次遇到像创办Scion Capital时那样的问题。”“我仍在管理我的资金并活跃于市场，”他补充道。这位对冲基金经理在2008年成功做空美国住房市场后关闭了之前的公司Scion Capital，并于2013年开设了Scion Asset Management。不久前Scion Asset Management已终止在美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的注册状态，他在X上发帖表示“11月25日将去做更好的事”。“我很高兴摆脱合规负担和我的文件引发的广泛误解，”伯里周二写道。“Scion Asset 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12:34","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"美利亚斯研究：上调英伟达目标价至320美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2584904560","media":"格隆汇","summary":"美利亚斯研究公司将英伟达公司目标价从300美元上调至320美元。","content":"<html><body><p>美利亚斯研究公司将英伟达公司目标价从300美元上调至320美元。</p></body></html>","source":"live_gelonghui","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美利亚斯研究：上调英伟达目标价至320美元</title>\n<style 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n一个时代即将结束，蒂姆·库克将卸任\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-16 12:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251116122130a6fc7b83&s=b><strong>财经实验室TheF...</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>一个时代即将结束，蒂姆·库克将卸任。在史蒂夫·乔布斯因癌症去世后，蒂姆·库克接掌了苹果的领导权，并将其打造为如今这样一家科技巨头。库克常被批评缺乏乔布斯那种创造力与天才气质——这确实没错。但库克的独到之处在于，他在扩展供应链、将苹果打造为全球制造体系中的超级巨头方面展现出了惊人的才能；精益、高效、稳定，这正是库克的天赋。因此，仅仅把他与乔布斯对比来批评他，显得过于简单粗暴。随着库克的离任，一个时代...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251116122130a6fc7b83&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2133065610.SGD":"JPMorgan Investment Funds - Global Dividend A (mth) SGD","LU0069063385.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BN8TJ469.HKD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU1815333072.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL FOCUS \"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU2361044865.SGD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" 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INC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251116122130a6fc7b83&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2583663685","content_text":"一个时代即将结束，蒂姆·库克将卸任。在史蒂夫·乔布斯因癌症去世后，蒂姆·库克接掌了苹果的领导权，并将其打造为如今这样一家科技巨头。库克常被批评缺乏乔布斯那种创造力与天才气质——这确实没错。但库克的独到之处在于，他在扩展供应链、将苹果打造为全球制造体系中的超级巨头方面展现出了惊人的才能；精益、高效、稳定，这正是库克的天赋。因此，仅仅把他与乔布斯对比来批评他，显得过于简单粗暴。随着库克的离任，一个时代落幕。谁将接任仍未可知。“在苹果公布下一份财报之前（预计在1月底，涵盖最关键的假日季度），公司很可能不会公布下一任 CEO。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MACW.SI":0.6,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":500154580603536,"gmtCreate":1763148303903,"gmtModify":1763148306593,"author":{"id":"38220067823223","authorId":"38220067823223","name":"optioncao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ecb563d4e3667cbc1b3657debd5f07b","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"38220067823223","idStr":"38220067823223"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 收盘42<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20251114 422.5 CALL\">$TSLA 20251114 422.5 CALL$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 收盘42<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSLA 20251114 422.5 CALL\">$TSLA 20251114 422.5 CALL$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 收盘42$TSLA 20251114 422.5 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