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Asta168

Asta168

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2021-07-25

Believe is good forecast

What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时更多</blockquote>

2021-07-25

$Comstock Resources(CRK)$just thinking of selling it?

2021-07-24

Hope both stock will rise

Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>

2021-07-23

Keep faith in this stock

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-23

Really hope this is a good year for this stock

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-21

$Comstock Resources(CRK)$can this stock progress upward

2021-07-20

$Bank of America(BAC)$just hold on to it

2021-07-20

We almost see light but now go back to before

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-20

Hope this new will push the stock up...

Markets Stabilize After Worst Fall for Stocks in Months<blockquote>股市数月来最严重下跌后市场企稳</blockquote>

2021-07-17

$Comstock Resources(CRK)$just wait for the market to go bull again

2021-07-17

Please advise whether is good to keep this stock?

2021-07-16

Can you recommend which REITs to invest? //@JenneyJJ: I am looking at REITs. What about you?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-15

Good to buy company that pay out dividend

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-15

Can it be true that companies will sacrifice their profit?

This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快就会成为历史——因为公司将为了市场份额而牺牲利润</blockquote>

2021-07-14

$Comstock Resources(CRK)$This stock goes up bit by bit

2021-07-13

$Bank of America(BAC)$is a good stock

2021-07-13

What is meme stock?

Sgoco Surges 100% as Meme Stock Momentum Rages On<blockquote>随着模因股势头强劲，Sgoco 飙升 100%</blockquote>

2021-07-13

Hope this new can make stock rise further

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-12

$Bank of America(BAC)$Hope this stock will keep moving up..up..

2021-07-11

$Bank of America(BAC)$this stock still have room to rise up

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Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时更多</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153938547","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few mo","content":"<p>Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon</p><p><blockquote>苹果盈利预览：最近缺乏季度预测可能会导致高管们在周二下午讨论业绩时透露有关下一次 iPhone 发布的更多暗示</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1694f71fa4dec194ef63e28ffc75776f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Heavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>无线行业的大力促销可能会使苹果在六月季度的业务受益。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.</p><p><blockquote>这一流行病可能会给通常伴随苹果公司 6 月份季度电话会议的猜测游戏增添一丝皱纹。</blockquote></p><p> Typically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>通常是第三财季收益中最重要的花絮，苹果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(苹果)$</a>定于周二下午发布报告，是该公司对 9 月份季度收入的展望和评论，这可以为该公司在下一次智能手机发布初期的预期提供线索。强劲的预测可能意味着该公司打算在财年的最后几天推出新产品线，而疲软的指引可能表明发布将推迟到第四季度。</blockquote></p><p> The problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.</p><p><blockquote>这次的问题是，苹果在疫情期间推迟了一年多才发布正式的展望，目前尚不清楚该公司何时或是否会恢复这种做法。相反，苹果一直在提供“方向性见解”，以提供一些迹象，表明其业绩如何与前几个季度相比，但众所周知，该公司对 iPhone 发布计划守口如瓶。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. analyst Brian White.</p><p><blockquote>Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. 分析师 Brian White 写道：“我们预计 iPhone 13 的上市时间最终将成为[第四财季]的决定因素，因此我们预计该公司将提供更详细的方向性评论。”</blockquote></p><p> The coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的阵容表现良好，即将到来的发布引起了人们的极大兴趣。巴克莱银行分析师蒂姆·朗 (Tim Long) 写道：“iPhone 12 周期一直很强劲，但我们认为接下来的两个周期可能会充满挑战，2022 财年和2023财年的销量可能会同比下降。”</blockquote></p><p> The June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.</p><p><blockquote>苹果将于周二公布的 6 月份季度传统上较慢<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>由于消费者正在等待下一代 iPhone 的发布，但该公司仍有望在其智能手机业务方面实现大幅增长。该公司不仅受益于与疫情早期的轻松比较，而且还应该收获异常促销的无线行业的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>注意什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>FactSet 追踪的分析师预计苹果每股收益为 1.01 美元，高于去年同期的 65 美分。Estimize 从对冲基金、学者和其他人那里众包预测，平均预期每股收益为 1.16 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue: </b>The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>FactSet 共识评级总收入为 732.6 亿美元，高于去年同期的 596.9 亿美元。在 Estimize 上，平均估计为 773.8 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.</p><p><blockquote>在细分市场层面，FactSet调查的分析师预计iPhone收入为341.9亿美元，iPad收入为71.7亿美元，Mac收入为78.6亿美元，服务收入为162.6亿美元，可穿戴设备、家居和配件类别的收入为78.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>苹果股价在过去五份财报中有四份出现下跌，但随着道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 32%，该股在过去 12 个月中上涨了 60%。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.</p><p><blockquote>在 FactSet 追踪的 44 位关注苹果股票的分析师中，33 位给予买入评级，9 位给予持有评级，2 位给予卖出评级，平均目标价为 157.88 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还有什么要注意的</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的 iPhone 业务有望创下至少三年来第二高的增长率，仅次于上一季度的增长率。FactSet 追踪的分析师预计 iPhone 收入将达到 342 亿美元，同比增长 29.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Some encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&amp;T Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></p><p><blockquote>威瑞森通信公司发出了一些令人鼓舞的信号。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>该公司最近进行了一次大型 iPhone 促销活动，试图与竞争对手 AT&amp;T Inc. 的折扣相匹配。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></blockquote></p><p> \"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .</p><p><blockquote>Verizon 首席财务官 Matthew Ellis 在公司财报看涨期权上表示：“整个季度的势头都在增强，我们选择促销活动的时机是为了充分利用经济复苏和客户活动的增加。”Verizon 约 20% 的消费者现在使用支持 5G 的手机。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James分析师Chris Caso指出，升级的数量甚至可能不是最重要的因素，因为他对去年iPhone运营商交易的分析发现，它们有助于推动更昂贵设备的更大“组合”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>他根据对去年补贴的分析写道：“如果基本型号是免费的，消费者似乎愿意每月支付几美元来升级到高端型号。”</blockquote></p><p> UBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师大卫·沃格特 (David Vogt) 也对进入第三财季报告的业务感到乐观，他指出电信行业出现了积极的迹象，例如“积极的促销”和无线商店零售流量的改善。</blockquote></p><p> But he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.</p><p><blockquote>但他指出，需求对苹果来说可能不是大问题，因为由于供应限制困扰更广泛的电子行业及其他领域，该公司的整体上涨空间被“限制”。苹果在其盈利看涨期权上解决了这些问题，预计 6 月份季度将产生 30 亿至 40 亿美元的负收入影响，预计主要影响 Mac 和 iPad 业务。</blockquote></p><p> Another key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键的叙述是，在回归家庭以外更正常的活动的情况下，这两个部分是如何更普遍地维持的。苹果的 Mac 和 iPad 是那些需要新硬件来支持远程工作和上学的人的热门选择，但分析师将关注个人电脑繁荣是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p> \"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"</p><p><blockquote>CFRA 分析师安吉洛·齐诺 (Angelo Zino) 写道：“虽然苹果将不得不在 [6 月季度] 以及此后的几个季度应对非常困难的流行病比较，但我们看到这两个类别在短期内都会带来一些有利因素。”“随着全球经济全面重新开放，我们看到企业层面的企业升级将成为需求的更大贡献者。”</blockquote></p><p> The coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.</p><p><blockquote>即将发布的结果也将是苹果新的彩色iMac系列和强大的iPad Pro的第一个需求指标，这两款产品都在春季推出，并采用了该公司定制的M1芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时更多</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时更多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 08:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon</p><p><blockquote>苹果盈利预览：最近缺乏季度预测可能会导致高管们在周二下午讨论业绩时透露有关下一次 iPhone 发布的更多暗示</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1694f71fa4dec194ef63e28ffc75776f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Heavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>无线行业的大力促销可能会使苹果在六月季度的业务受益。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.</p><p><blockquote>这一流行病可能会给通常伴随苹果公司 6 月份季度电话会议的猜测游戏增添一丝皱纹。</blockquote></p><p> Typically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>通常是第三财季收益中最重要的花絮，苹果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(苹果)$</a>定于周二下午发布报告，是该公司对 9 月份季度收入的展望和评论，这可以为该公司在下一次智能手机发布初期的预期提供线索。强劲的预测可能意味着该公司打算在财年的最后几天推出新产品线，而疲软的指引可能表明发布将推迟到第四季度。</blockquote></p><p> The problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.</p><p><blockquote>这次的问题是，苹果在疫情期间推迟了一年多才发布正式的展望，目前尚不清楚该公司何时或是否会恢复这种做法。相反，苹果一直在提供“方向性见解”，以提供一些迹象，表明其业绩如何与前几个季度相比，但众所周知，该公司对 iPhone 发布计划守口如瓶。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. analyst Brian White.</p><p><blockquote>Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. 分析师 Brian White 写道：“我们预计 iPhone 13 的上市时间最终将成为[第四财季]的决定因素，因此我们预计该公司将提供更详细的方向性评论。”</blockquote></p><p> The coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的阵容表现良好，即将到来的发布引起了人们的极大兴趣。巴克莱银行分析师蒂姆·朗 (Tim Long) 写道：“iPhone 12 周期一直很强劲，但我们认为接下来的两个周期可能会充满挑战，2022 财年和2023财年的销量可能会同比下降。”</blockquote></p><p> The June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.</p><p><blockquote>苹果将于周二公布的 6 月份季度传统上较慢<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>由于消费者正在等待下一代 iPhone 的发布，但该公司仍有望在其智能手机业务方面实现大幅增长。该公司不仅受益于与疫情早期的轻松比较，而且还应该收获异常促销的无线行业的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>注意什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>FactSet 追踪的分析师预计苹果每股收益为 1.01 美元，高于去年同期的 65 美分。Estimize 从对冲基金、学者和其他人那里众包预测，平均预期每股收益为 1.16 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue: </b>The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>FactSet 共识评级总收入为 732.6 亿美元，高于去年同期的 596.9 亿美元。在 Estimize 上，平均估计为 773.8 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.</p><p><blockquote>在细分市场层面，FactSet调查的分析师预计iPhone收入为341.9亿美元，iPad收入为71.7亿美元，Mac收入为78.6亿美元，服务收入为162.6亿美元，可穿戴设备、家居和配件类别的收入为78.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>苹果股价在过去五份财报中有四份出现下跌，但随着道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 32%，该股在过去 12 个月中上涨了 60%。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.</p><p><blockquote>在 FactSet 追踪的 44 位关注苹果股票的分析师中，33 位给予买入评级，9 位给予持有评级，2 位给予卖出评级，平均目标价为 157.88 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还有什么要注意的</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的 iPhone 业务有望创下至少三年来第二高的增长率，仅次于上一季度的增长率。FactSet 追踪的分析师预计 iPhone 收入将达到 342 亿美元，同比增长 29.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Some encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&amp;T Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></p><p><blockquote>威瑞森通信公司发出了一些令人鼓舞的信号。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>该公司最近进行了一次大型 iPhone 促销活动，试图与竞争对手 AT&amp;T Inc. 的折扣相匹配。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></blockquote></p><p> \"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .</p><p><blockquote>Verizon 首席财务官 Matthew Ellis 在公司财报看涨期权上表示：“整个季度的势头都在增强，我们选择促销活动的时机是为了充分利用经济复苏和客户活动的增加。”Verizon 约 20% 的消费者现在使用支持 5G 的手机。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James分析师Chris Caso指出，升级的数量甚至可能不是最重要的因素，因为他对去年iPhone运营商交易的分析发现，它们有助于推动更昂贵设备的更大“组合”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>他根据对去年补贴的分析写道：“如果基本型号是免费的，消费者似乎愿意每月支付几美元来升级到高端型号。”</blockquote></p><p> UBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师大卫·沃格特 (David Vogt) 也对进入第三财季报告的业务感到乐观，他指出电信行业出现了积极的迹象，例如“积极的促销”和无线商店零售流量的改善。</blockquote></p><p> But he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.</p><p><blockquote>但他指出，需求对苹果来说可能不是大问题，因为由于供应限制困扰更广泛的电子行业及其他领域，该公司的整体上涨空间被“限制”。苹果在其盈利看涨期权上解决了这些问题，预计 6 月份季度将产生 30 亿至 40 亿美元的负收入影响，预计主要影响 Mac 和 iPad 业务。</blockquote></p><p> Another key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键的叙述是，在回归家庭以外更正常的活动的情况下，这两个部分是如何更普遍地维持的。苹果的 Mac 和 iPad 是那些需要新硬件来支持远程工作和上学的人的热门选择，但分析师将关注个人电脑繁荣是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p> \"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"</p><p><blockquote>CFRA 分析师安吉洛·齐诺 (Angelo Zino) 写道：“虽然苹果将不得不在 [6 月季度] 以及此后的几个季度应对非常困难的流行病比较，但我们看到这两个类别在短期内都会带来一些有利因素。”“随着全球经济全面重新开放，我们看到企业层面的企业升级将成为需求的更大贡献者。”</blockquote></p><p> The coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.</p><p><blockquote>即将发布的结果也将是苹果新的彩色iMac系列和强大的iPad Pro的第一个需求指标，这两款产品都在春季推出，并采用了该公司定制的M1芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153938547","content_text":"Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon\nHeavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.\nThe pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.\nTypically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple $(AAPL)$ is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.\nThe problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.\n\"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. analyst Brian White.\nThe coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.\nThe June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower one, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.\nWhat to watch for\nEarnings: Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.\nRevenue: The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.\nOn a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.\nStock movement: Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.\nOf the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.\nWhat else to watch for\nApple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.\nSome encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. $(VZ)$, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&T Inc. $(T)$\n\"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .\nRaymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.\n\"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.\nUBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.\nBut he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.\nAnother key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.\n\"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"\nThe coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177006668,"gmtCreate":1627161294154,"gmtModify":1631892759880,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRK\">$Comstock Resources(CRK)$</a>just thinking of selling it?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRK\">$Comstock Resources(CRK)$</a>just thinking of selling it?","text":"$Comstock Resources(CRK)$just thinking of selling it?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9c7fddd3af00cbbd4ee03899d64ce6","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177006668","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174448983,"gmtCreate":1627132306242,"gmtModify":1631884320661,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hope both stock will rise","listText":"Hope both stock will rise","text":"Hope both stock will rise","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174448983","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175433998,"gmtCreate":1627045600314,"gmtModify":1633768503230,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Keep faith in this stock","listText":"Keep faith in this stock","text":"Keep faith in this stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175433998","repostId":"2153092983","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175494782,"gmtCreate":1627045455746,"gmtModify":1633768505044,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Really hope this is a good year for this stock","listText":"Really hope this is a good year for this stock","text":"Really hope this is a good year for this stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175494782","repostId":"1116494249","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2089,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176897681,"gmtCreate":1626875385343,"gmtModify":1631892759880,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRK\">$Comstock Resources(CRK)$</a>can this stock progress upward","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRK\">$Comstock Resources(CRK)$</a>can this stock progress upward","text":"$Comstock Resources(CRK)$can this stock progress upward","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f09ef60df3ff3214ecd766bfe7c9e26","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176897681","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178049521,"gmtCreate":1626775628463,"gmtModify":1631885277842,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a>just hold on to it","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a>just hold on to it","text":"$Bank of America(BAC)$just hold on to it","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61eb9aa95929183f41daafbfee8b7700","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178049521","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178040810,"gmtCreate":1626775520430,"gmtModify":1633771160707,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"We almost see light but now go back to before","listText":"We almost see light but now go back to before","text":"We almost see light but now go back to before","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178040810","repostId":"1174094323","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178054506,"gmtCreate":1626775349305,"gmtModify":1631884320899,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hope this new will push the stock up...","listText":"Hope this new will push the stock up...","text":"Hope this new will push the stock up...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178054506","repostId":"1149956232","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149956232","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626772136,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1149956232?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 17:08","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Markets Stabilize After Worst Fall for Stocks in Months<blockquote>股市数月来最严重下跌后市场企稳</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149956232","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Dow futures, oil and bond yields rise, injecting some calm into markets.\n\nU.S. stock futures pointed","content":"<p>  Dow futures, oil and bond yields rise, injecting some calm into markets.  U.S. stock futures pointed to a rebound Tuesday, after major indexes tumbled Monday on concerns over the spread of Covid-19 variants and potential setbacks to the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯期货、石油和债券收益率上升，为市场注入了一些平静。美国股指期货周二出现反弹，此前主要股指周一因担心 Covid-19 变种的传播和经济复苏的潜在挫折而暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%, suggesting a reversal for the blue-chip index that fell more than 700 points Monday in itsworst session since October. S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.5%, pointing to a turnaround for both the broad-market index and technology stocks.</p><p><blockquote>与道琼斯工业平均指数挂钩的期货上涨 0.7%，表明该蓝筹股指数出现逆转，该指数周一下跌超过 700 点，创下 10 月份以来最糟糕的交易日。标普500期货上涨 0.5%，纳斯达克 100 指数期货上涨 0.5%，表明大盘指数和科技股都出现好转。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have grown concerned over the Delta coronavirus variant, prompting a reassessment of the economy’s prospects. Despite this, the three major stock indexes each closed only around 3% down from their all-time highs Monday, underscoring the strength of the rally that powered equity markets in the first half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对德尔塔新冠病毒变异毒株的担忧与日俱增，促使人们重新评估经济前景。尽管如此，三大股指周一收盘仅较历史高点下跌约3%，凸显了今年上半年推动股市上涨的力度。</blockquote></p><p> “When you get a selloff like we had yesterday, there are certainly going to be some investors who are going to see that as an opportunity to invest for the longer term,” said Kiran Ganesh, a multiasset strategist atUBSGlobal Wealth Management. “Especially where the 10-year [Treasury] yields have gone, that still points to the default position for investors as long equities, because there are simply very few other options.”</p><p><blockquote>“atUBSGlobal Wealth Management 的多资产策略师 Kiran Ganesh 说：”当出现像我们昨天那样的抛售时，肯定会有一些投资者将其视为长期投资的机会。“尤其是10年期[国债]收益率的走势，这仍然表明投资者作为长期股票的默认头寸，因为其他选择非常少。”</blockquote></p><p> In bond markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note edged up to 1.200%, after dropping to 1.181% Monday in thebiggest daily decline since March. Prices rise when yields fall. The WSJ Dollar Index hovered around its highest level since March, up another 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场方面，基准 10 年期美国国债收益率在周一跌至 1.181%，创下 3 月份以来最大单日跌幅后，小幅升至 1.200%。当收益率下降时，价格上涨。《华尔街日报》美元指数徘徊在3月份以来的最高水平附近，又上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Oil prices also ticked upafter tumbling Mondayon fears that Covid-19 could curb energy demand again. Brent crude added 0.3%, after dropping 6.8% in its worst daily performance since March. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate also rose 0.3%, after logging its biggest drop since September.</p><p><blockquote>世界经济暴跌后，油价也上涨。人们担心 Covid-19 可能再次抑制能源需求。布伦特原油上涨 0.3%，此前下跌 6.8%，创下 3 月份以来最糟糕的单日表现。美国基准西德克萨斯中质原油也上涨 0.3%，创下 9 月份以来的最大跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> “We sometimes forget that when we’ve had periods of very strong performance and low volatility, small bumps in the market do feel like they are more than they are,” said Shaniel Ramjee, a multiasset fund manager at Pictet Asset Management.</p><p><blockquote>“百达资产管理公司（Pictet Asset Management）多资产基金经理沙尼尔-拉姆吉（Shaniel Ramjee）说：”我们有时会忘记，当我们经历过业绩非常强劲、波动性较低的时期时，市场的小幅波动确实让人感觉比实际情况还要大。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings season is under way, with tobacco giantPhilip Morris Internationaland insurance company Travelers Companies scheduled to report ahead of the opening bell.Netflix,Chipotle Mexican Grilland United Airlines are slated to post earnings after markets close.</p><p><blockquote>财报季正在进行中，烟草巨头菲利普莫里斯国际公司和保险公司 Travelers Companies 计划在开盘前发布财报。 Netflix、Chipotle Mexican Grilland United Airlines 计划在市场收盘后发布财报。</blockquote></p><p> Cryptocurrencies extended their declines, with bitcoin dropping below $30,000 Tuesday for the first time in a month. It declined nearly 3% from its level at 5 p.m. ET the previous day to around $29,800.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币延续跌势，比特币周二一个月来首次跌破 30,000 美元。较下午 5 点的水平下跌近 3%。美国东部时间前一天至 29,800 美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> Overseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.9%. Among European equities, UBS climbed 2.6% after postingbetter-than-expected earningsfor the second quarter, driven by strong client activity and buoyant markets. Mining giantBHP Grouprose 2% after reportingstrong quarterly operations.</p><p><blockquote>海外方面，泛洲斯托克欧洲 600 指数上涨 0.9%。在欧洲股市中，在强劲的客户活动和活跃的市场推动下，瑞银公布第二季度盈利好于预期，股价上涨 2.6%。矿业巨头必和必拓集团公布强劲的季度运营后上涨 2%。</blockquote></p><p> In Asia, most major benchmarks extended Monday’s declines. The Shanghai Composite Index lost another 0.1% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tumbled 0.8%.</p><p><blockquote>在亚洲，大多数主要基准都延续了周一的跌幅。上证综合指数再下跌 0.1%，香港恒生指数下跌 0.8%。</blockquote></p><p> A gauge of housing starts in the U.S. in June is set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect a rise, as prices for materials such as lumber eased amid a limited supply of houses on the market.</p><p><blockquote>美国 6 月份新屋开工数据将于美国东部时间上午 8:30 发布。经济学家预计，由于市场上房屋供应有限，木材等材料的价格有所下降，房价将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Markets Stabilize After Worst Fall for Stocks in Months<blockquote>股市数月来最严重下跌后市场企稳</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarkets Stabilize After Worst Fall for Stocks in Months<blockquote>股市数月来最严重下跌后市场企稳</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-20 17:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Dow futures, oil and bond yields rise, injecting some calm into markets.  U.S. stock futures pointed to a rebound Tuesday, after major indexes tumbled Monday on concerns over the spread of Covid-19 variants and potential setbacks to the economic recovery.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯期货、石油和债券收益率上升，为市场注入了一些平静。美国股指期货周二出现反弹，此前主要股指周一因担心 Covid-19 变种的传播和经济复苏的潜在挫折而暴跌。</blockquote></p><p> Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%, suggesting a reversal for the blue-chip index that fell more than 700 points Monday in itsworst session since October. S&amp;P 500 futures rose 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.5%, pointing to a turnaround for both the broad-market index and technology stocks.</p><p><blockquote>与道琼斯工业平均指数挂钩的期货上涨 0.7%，表明该蓝筹股指数出现逆转，该指数周一下跌超过 700 点，创下 10 月份以来最糟糕的交易日。标普500期货上涨 0.5%，纳斯达克 100 指数期货上涨 0.5%，表明大盘指数和科技股都出现好转。</blockquote></p><p> Investors have grown concerned over the Delta coronavirus variant, prompting a reassessment of the economy’s prospects. Despite this, the three major stock indexes each closed only around 3% down from their all-time highs Monday, underscoring the strength of the rally that powered equity markets in the first half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>投资者对德尔塔新冠病毒变异毒株的担忧与日俱增，促使人们重新评估经济前景。尽管如此，三大股指周一收盘仅较历史高点下跌约3%，凸显了今年上半年推动股市上涨的力度。</blockquote></p><p> “When you get a selloff like we had yesterday, there are certainly going to be some investors who are going to see that as an opportunity to invest for the longer term,” said Kiran Ganesh, a multiasset strategist atUBSGlobal Wealth Management. “Especially where the 10-year [Treasury] yields have gone, that still points to the default position for investors as long equities, because there are simply very few other options.”</p><p><blockquote>“atUBSGlobal Wealth Management 的多资产策略师 Kiran Ganesh 说：”当出现像我们昨天那样的抛售时，肯定会有一些投资者将其视为长期投资的机会。“尤其是10年期[国债]收益率的走势，这仍然表明投资者作为长期股票的默认头寸，因为其他选择非常少。”</blockquote></p><p> In bond markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note edged up to 1.200%, after dropping to 1.181% Monday in thebiggest daily decline since March. Prices rise when yields fall. The WSJ Dollar Index hovered around its highest level since March, up another 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>债券市场方面，基准 10 年期美国国债收益率在周一跌至 1.181%，创下 3 月份以来最大单日跌幅后，小幅升至 1.200%。当收益率下降时，价格上涨。《华尔街日报》美元指数徘徊在3月份以来的最高水平附近，又上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Oil prices also ticked upafter tumbling Mondayon fears that Covid-19 could curb energy demand again. Brent crude added 0.3%, after dropping 6.8% in its worst daily performance since March. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate also rose 0.3%, after logging its biggest drop since September.</p><p><blockquote>世界经济暴跌后，油价也上涨。人们担心 Covid-19 可能再次抑制能源需求。布伦特原油上涨 0.3%，此前下跌 6.8%，创下 3 月份以来最糟糕的单日表现。美国基准西德克萨斯中质原油也上涨 0.3%，创下 9 月份以来的最大跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> “We sometimes forget that when we’ve had periods of very strong performance and low volatility, small bumps in the market do feel like they are more than they are,” said Shaniel Ramjee, a multiasset fund manager at Pictet Asset Management.</p><p><blockquote>“百达资产管理公司（Pictet Asset Management）多资产基金经理沙尼尔-拉姆吉（Shaniel Ramjee）说：”我们有时会忘记，当我们经历过业绩非常强劲、波动性较低的时期时，市场的小幅波动确实让人感觉比实际情况还要大。</blockquote></p><p> Earnings season is under way, with tobacco giantPhilip Morris Internationaland insurance company Travelers Companies scheduled to report ahead of the opening bell.Netflix,Chipotle Mexican Grilland United Airlines are slated to post earnings after markets close.</p><p><blockquote>财报季正在进行中，烟草巨头菲利普莫里斯国际公司和保险公司 Travelers Companies 计划在开盘前发布财报。 Netflix、Chipotle Mexican Grilland United Airlines 计划在市场收盘后发布财报。</blockquote></p><p> Cryptocurrencies extended their declines, with bitcoin dropping below $30,000 Tuesday for the first time in a month. It declined nearly 3% from its level at 5 p.m. ET the previous day to around $29,800.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币延续跌势，比特币周二一个月来首次跌破 30,000 美元。较下午 5 点的水平下跌近 3%。美国东部时间前一天至 29,800 美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> Overseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.9%. Among European equities, UBS climbed 2.6% after postingbetter-than-expected earningsfor the second quarter, driven by strong client activity and buoyant markets. Mining giantBHP Grouprose 2% after reportingstrong quarterly operations.</p><p><blockquote>海外方面，泛洲斯托克欧洲 600 指数上涨 0.9%。在欧洲股市中，在强劲的客户活动和活跃的市场推动下，瑞银公布第二季度盈利好于预期，股价上涨 2.6%。矿业巨头必和必拓集团公布强劲的季度运营后上涨 2%。</blockquote></p><p> In Asia, most major benchmarks extended Monday’s declines. The Shanghai Composite Index lost another 0.1% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tumbled 0.8%.</p><p><blockquote>在亚洲，大多数主要基准都延续了周一的跌幅。上证综合指数再下跌 0.1%，香港恒生指数下跌 0.8%。</blockquote></p><p> A gauge of housing starts in the U.S. in June is set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect a rise, as prices for materials such as lumber eased amid a limited supply of houses on the market.</p><p><blockquote>美国 6 月份新屋开工数据将于美国东部时间上午 8:30 发布。经济学家预计，由于市场上房屋供应有限，木材等材料的价格有所下降，房价将会上涨。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-07-20-2021-11626768165\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stock-markets-dow-update-07-20-2021-11626768165","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149956232","content_text":"Dow futures, oil and bond yields rise, injecting some calm into markets.\n\nU.S. stock futures pointed to a rebound Tuesday, after major indexes tumbled Monday on concerns over the spread of Covid-19 variants and potential setbacks to the economic recovery.\nFutures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.7%, suggesting a reversal for the blue-chip index that fell more than 700 points Monday in itsworst session since October. S&P 500 futures rose 0.5% and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.5%, pointing to a turnaround for both the broad-market index and technology stocks.\nInvestors have grown concerned over the Delta coronavirus variant, prompting a reassessment of the economy’s prospects. Despite this, the three major stock indexes each closed only around 3% down from their all-time highs Monday, underscoring the strength of the rally that powered equity markets in the first half of the year.\n“When you get a selloff like we had yesterday, there are certainly going to be some investors who are going to see that as an opportunity to invest for the longer term,” said Kiran Ganesh, a multiasset strategist atUBSGlobal Wealth Management. “Especially where the 10-year [Treasury] yields have gone, that still points to the default position for investors as long equities, because there are simply very few other options.”\nIn bond markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note edged up to 1.200%, after dropping to 1.181% Monday in thebiggest daily decline since March. Prices rise when yields fall. The WSJ Dollar Index hovered around its highest level since March, up another 0.1%.\nOil prices also ticked upafter tumbling Mondayon fears that Covid-19 could curb energy demand again. Brent crude added 0.3%, after dropping 6.8% in its worst daily performance since March. U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate also rose 0.3%, after logging its biggest drop since September.\n“We sometimes forget that when we’ve had periods of very strong performance and low volatility, small bumps in the market do feel like they are more than they are,” said Shaniel Ramjee, a multiasset fund manager at Pictet Asset Management.\nEarnings season is under way, with tobacco giantPhilip Morris Internationaland insurance company Travelers Companies scheduled to report ahead of the opening bell.Netflix,Chipotle Mexican Grilland United Airlines are slated to post earnings after markets close.\nCryptocurrencies extended their declines, with bitcoin dropping below $30,000 Tuesday for the first time in a month. It declined nearly 3% from its level at 5 p.m. ET the previous day to around $29,800.\nOverseas, the pan-continental Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.9%. Among European equities, UBS climbed 2.6% after postingbetter-than-expected earningsfor the second quarter, driven by strong client activity and buoyant markets. Mining giantBHP Grouprose 2% after reportingstrong quarterly operations.\nIn Asia, most major benchmarks extended Monday’s declines. The Shanghai Composite Index lost another 0.1% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng tumbled 0.8%.\nA gauge of housing starts in the U.S. in June is set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists expect a rise, as prices for materials such as lumber eased amid a limited supply of houses on the market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2710,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179037293,"gmtCreate":1626471641712,"gmtModify":1631892759885,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRK\">$Comstock Resources(CRK)$</a>just wait for the market to go bull again","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRK\">$Comstock Resources(CRK)$</a>just wait for the market to go bull again","text":"$Comstock Resources(CRK)$just wait for the market to go bull again","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f640aafd5e5c75a07a26fd48dfd0a651","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179037293","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179035454,"gmtCreate":1626471363378,"gmtModify":1633926540403,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please advise whether is good to keep this stock?","listText":"Please advise whether is good to keep this stock?","text":"Please advise whether is good to keep this stock?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2eff68b15b750b1b67cc8fae68432479","width":"1080","height":"3298"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179035454","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147420217,"gmtCreate":1626386294539,"gmtModify":1633927360561,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Can you recommend which REITs to invest?&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573203718015318\">@JenneyJJ</a>: I am looking at REITs. What about you?","listText":"Can you recommend which REITs to invest?&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573203718015318\">@JenneyJJ</a>: I am looking at REITs. What about you?","text":"Can you recommend which REITs to invest? //@JenneyJJ: I am looking at REITs. What about you?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147420217","repostId":"2151751740","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144264495,"gmtCreate":1626301832517,"gmtModify":1633928200626,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good to buy company that pay out dividend&nbsp;","listText":"Good to buy company that pay out dividend&nbsp;","text":"Good to buy company that pay out dividend","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144264495","repostId":"2151751740","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144262639,"gmtCreate":1626301685921,"gmtModify":1633928203247,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Can it be true that companies will sacrifice their profit?","listText":"Can it be true that companies will sacrifice their profit?","text":"Can it be true that companies will sacrifice their profit?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144262639","repostId":"1148011457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快就会成为历史——因为公司将为了市场份额而牺牲利润</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":"<p>  <b>Market share trumps pricing power.</b>  Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.</p><p><blockquote><b>市场份额胜过定价权。</b>6月份通胀飙升，但目前处于或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?</p><p><blockquote>从现在起，决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote></p><p> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新工人和留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。增加在关键商品上的支出也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Calculated risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>计算风险</b></blockquote></p><p> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.</p><p><blockquote>但这也是一种经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与竞争对手做生意，而竞争对手突然看到了通过降价脱颖而出的机会。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去了市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote></p><p> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.</p><p><blockquote>6 月份消费者价格指数上涨 0.9% 告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长得太多、太快，根本无法消化。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更高的费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.</p><p><blockquote>同样，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是一个安全的风险.目前!毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。几十年来，我们从未见过如此强大的定价权。过去 12 个月通胀率上升了 5.4%，为 2008 年夏季以来的最快涨幅，核心 CPI 大幅上涨 4.5%，为 1991 年以来的最大涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>只要定价权不威胁到市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here’s why inflation has peaked</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</b></blockquote></p><p> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.</p><p><blockquote>其次，过去一年，消费者被压抑的需求大量增加，为经济提供了很大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote></p><p> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.</p><p><blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正在准备缩减抵押贷款支持证券和国债的购买规模。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote></p><p> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.</p><p><blockquote>四是上半年供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的这种改善为大宗商品和制成品价格的下行奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我说这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但现在这样做还为时过早。美国新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的幽灵。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote></p><p> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.</p><p><blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的峰值，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这种普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快就会成为历史——因为公司将为了市场份额而牺牲利润</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快就会成为历史——因为公司将为了市场份额而牺牲利润</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-14 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Market share trumps pricing power.</b>  Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.</p><p><blockquote><b>市场份额胜过定价权。</b>6月份通胀飙升，但目前处于或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?</p><p><blockquote>从现在起，决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote></p><p> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新工人和留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。增加在关键商品上的支出也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Calculated risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>计算风险</b></blockquote></p><p> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.</p><p><blockquote>但这也是一种经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与竞争对手做生意，而竞争对手突然看到了通过降价脱颖而出的机会。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去了市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote></p><p> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.</p><p><blockquote>6 月份消费者价格指数上涨 0.9% 告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长得太多、太快，根本无法消化。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更高的费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.</p><p><blockquote>同样，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是一个安全的风险.目前!毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。几十年来，我们从未见过如此强大的定价权。过去 12 个月通胀率上升了 5.4%，为 2008 年夏季以来的最快涨幅，核心 CPI 大幅上涨 4.5%，为 1991 年以来的最大涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>只要定价权不威胁到市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here’s why inflation has peaked</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</b></blockquote></p><p> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.</p><p><blockquote>其次，过去一年，消费者被压抑的需求大量增加，为经济提供了很大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote></p><p> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.</p><p><blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正在准备缩减抵押贷款支持证券和国债的购买规模。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote></p><p> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.</p><p><blockquote>四是上半年供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的这种改善为大宗商品和制成品价格的下行奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我说这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但现在这样做还为时过早。美国新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的幽灵。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote></p><p> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.</p><p><blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的峰值，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这种普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":985,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145715051,"gmtCreate":1626245397373,"gmtModify":1631892759894,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRK\">$Comstock Resources(CRK)$</a>This stock goes up bit by bit&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRK\">$Comstock Resources(CRK)$</a>This stock goes up bit by bit&nbsp;","text":"$Comstock Resources(CRK)$This stock goes up bit by bit","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59c2d07851a85c3e4513ccb3d7d9401b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145715051","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":556,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142465309,"gmtCreate":1626169272501,"gmtModify":1631885278103,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a>is a good stock","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a>is a good stock","text":"$Bank of America(BAC)$is a good stock","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f32f062947c7c9180069ed274100a19b","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142465309","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1096,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142469688,"gmtCreate":1626168827144,"gmtModify":1633929452723,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"What is meme stock?","listText":"What is meme stock?","text":"What is meme stock?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142469688","repostId":"1134945139","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134945139","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626099260,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1134945139?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 22:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sgoco Surges 100% as Meme Stock Momentum Rages On<blockquote>随着模因股势头强劲，Sgoco 飙升 100%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134945139","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Shares of Sgoco (SGOC) surged on Monday as investors continued to push so-called meme stocks higher ","content":"<p>Shares of Sgoco&nbsp;(<b>SGOC</b>)&nbsp;surged on Monday as investors continued to push so-called meme stocks higher on expectations that momentum as well as sales and earnings potential can raise the valuations of lesser-known, lesser-proven companies.</p><p><blockquote>Sgoco股份（<b>SGOC</b>) 周一飙升，因为投资者继续推高所谓的模因股票，因为他们预期势头以及销售和盈利潜力可以提高鲜为人知、未经证实的公司的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Sgoco shares jumped more than 100% in early trading amid retail-trader touts on Reddit and StockTwits. Carver Bancorp, another meme-stock name, rose more than 16% following a three-day gain that saw its share price rise 170% last week.</p><p><blockquote>由于 Reddit 和 StockTwits 上散户交易员的吹捧，Sgoco 股价在早盘交易中上涨超过 100%。另一只模因股票名称 Carver Bancorp 在上周股价上涨 170% 三天后上涨超过 16%。</blockquote></p><p> Other meme stocks including Millendo Therapeutics&nbsp;(<b>MLND</b>)&nbsp;and Exela Technologies&nbsp;(<b>XELA</b>)&nbsp;also traded higher, though AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>)&nbsp;and GameStop&nbsp;(<b>GME</b>)&nbsp;shares were both lower.</p><p><blockquote>其他模因股票包括 Millendo Therapeutics（<b>MLND</b>）和 Exela Technologies（<b>谢拉</b>）也走高，尽管AMC院线（<b>AMC</b>）和游戏驿站（<b>GME</b>) 股价均下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks in general&nbsp;have been back in the spotlight&nbsp;amid calls on message boards including Reddit and Stocktwits to bid them higher, in some cases irrespective of any news or changes in underlying fundamentals like higher sales and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票总体上又回到了聚光灯下，包括 Reddit 和 Stocktwits 在内的留言板上的评级提高了它们的出价，在某些情况下，无论有任何新闻或销售和收益增加等潜在基本面的变化如何。</blockquote></p><p> Marin Software&nbsp;(<b>MRIN</b>)&nbsp;shares took off last week&nbsp;amid touts on Reddit message boards and other platformsto collectively push back against a potential short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>马林软件（<b>姆林</b>) 上周，Reddit 留言板和其他平台上的吹捧集体抵御潜在的空头挤压，股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> \"Do not sell!!!\" one poster said on Stocktwits. \"Wayyyy to low price for selling.\"</p><p><blockquote>“别卖!!!”Stocktwits上的一张海报说。“以低价出售。”</blockquote></p><p> Newegg Commerce&nbsp;(<b>NEGG</b>)&nbsp;also saw its shares ride the rollercoaster meme-momentum wave last week, with its stock soaring 148% on Wednesday and then plunging nearly 50% between Thursday and Friday.</p><p><blockquote>新蛋商业（<b>内格</b>) 上周，其股价也经历了过山车式的模因势头浪潮，周三股价飙升 148%，然后在周四至周五期间暴跌近 50%。</blockquote></p><p> In Newegg’s case, TheStreet's Jim Cramer, in a tweet last Wednesday, called the stock a“total BGL game,”referring to when stocks are bagged, gunned and liquidated. Newegg is an online electronics retailer.</p><p><blockquote>就 Newegg 而言，TheStreet 的吉姆-克莱默（Jim Cramer）在上周三的一条推文中称这只股票是 “total BGL game”，指的是股票被装袋、枪杀和清算的时候。新蛋是一家在线电子产品零售商。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, others are increasingly pointing out that momentum trading – betting a stock will rise based on momentum rather than on an in-depth analysis of its intermediate - or long-term prospects compared to its current price – is nothing new, and that Wall Street labeling such activity “meme trading” is offensive.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，也有越来越多的人指出，动量交易--押注一只股票将根据动量上涨，而不是根据对其中期或与当前价格相比的长期前景进行深入分析--并不新鲜，华尔街将这种活动称为 “迷因交易 ”是令人反感的。</blockquote></p><p> “Every Ape, Reddit investor and retail trader has their own thoughts behind the moves they make and where they put their money,”wrote TheStreet and RealMoney contributor Katherine Ross.</p><p><blockquote>“TheStreet 和 RealMoney 撰稿人凯瑟琳-罗斯（Katherine Ross）写道：”每只猿猴、Reddit 投资者和散户交易员在自己的行动背后都有自己的想法，以及把钱放在哪里。</blockquote></p><p> “One thing is for sure, though: These investors are here to stay post-pandemic.”</p><p><blockquote>“不过，有一点是肯定的： 这些投资者将在大流行后留在这里”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sgoco Surges 100% as Meme Stock Momentum Rages On<blockquote>随着模因股势头强劲，Sgoco 飙升 100%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSgoco Surges 100% as Meme Stock Momentum Rages On<blockquote>随着模因股势头强劲，Sgoco 飙升 100%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-12 22:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of Sgoco&nbsp;(<b>SGOC</b>)&nbsp;surged on Monday as investors continued to push so-called meme stocks higher on expectations that momentum as well as sales and earnings potential can raise the valuations of lesser-known, lesser-proven companies.</p><p><blockquote>Sgoco股份（<b>SGOC</b>) 周一飙升，因为投资者继续推高所谓的模因股票，因为他们预期势头以及销售和盈利潜力可以提高鲜为人知、未经证实的公司的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Sgoco shares jumped more than 100% in early trading amid retail-trader touts on Reddit and StockTwits. Carver Bancorp, another meme-stock name, rose more than 16% following a three-day gain that saw its share price rise 170% last week.</p><p><blockquote>由于 Reddit 和 StockTwits 上散户交易员的吹捧，Sgoco 股价在早盘交易中上涨超过 100%。另一只模因股票名称 Carver Bancorp 在上周股价上涨 170% 三天后上涨超过 16%。</blockquote></p><p> Other meme stocks including Millendo Therapeutics&nbsp;(<b>MLND</b>)&nbsp;and Exela Technologies&nbsp;(<b>XELA</b>)&nbsp;also traded higher, though AMC Entertainment&nbsp;(<b>AMC</b>)&nbsp;and GameStop&nbsp;(<b>GME</b>)&nbsp;shares were both lower.</p><p><blockquote>其他模因股票包括 Millendo Therapeutics（<b>MLND</b>）和 Exela Technologies（<b>谢拉</b>）也走高，尽管AMC院线（<b>AMC</b>）和游戏驿站（<b>GME</b>) 股价均下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks in general&nbsp;have been back in the spotlight&nbsp;amid calls on message boards including Reddit and Stocktwits to bid them higher, in some cases irrespective of any news or changes in underlying fundamentals like higher sales and earnings.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票总体上又回到了聚光灯下，包括 Reddit 和 Stocktwits 在内的留言板上的评级提高了它们的出价，在某些情况下，无论有任何新闻或销售和收益增加等潜在基本面的变化如何。</blockquote></p><p> Marin Software&nbsp;(<b>MRIN</b>)&nbsp;shares took off last week&nbsp;amid touts on Reddit message boards and other platformsto collectively push back against a potential short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>马林软件（<b>姆林</b>) 上周，Reddit 留言板和其他平台上的吹捧集体抵御潜在的空头挤压，股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> \"Do not sell!!!\" one poster said on Stocktwits. \"Wayyyy to low price for selling.\"</p><p><blockquote>“别卖!!!”Stocktwits上的一张海报说。“以低价出售。”</blockquote></p><p> Newegg Commerce&nbsp;(<b>NEGG</b>)&nbsp;also saw its shares ride the rollercoaster meme-momentum wave last week, with its stock soaring 148% on Wednesday and then plunging nearly 50% between Thursday and Friday.</p><p><blockquote>新蛋商业（<b>内格</b>) 上周，其股价也经历了过山车式的模因势头浪潮，周三股价飙升 148%，然后在周四至周五期间暴跌近 50%。</blockquote></p><p> In Newegg’s case, TheStreet's Jim Cramer, in a tweet last Wednesday, called the stock a“total BGL game,”referring to when stocks are bagged, gunned and liquidated. Newegg is an online electronics retailer.</p><p><blockquote>就 Newegg 而言，TheStreet 的吉姆-克莱默（Jim Cramer）在上周三的一条推文中称这只股票是 “total BGL game”，指的是股票被装袋、枪杀和清算的时候。新蛋是一家在线电子产品零售商。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, others are increasingly pointing out that momentum trading – betting a stock will rise based on momentum rather than on an in-depth analysis of its intermediate - or long-term prospects compared to its current price – is nothing new, and that Wall Street labeling such activity “meme trading” is offensive.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，也有越来越多的人指出，动量交易--押注一只股票将根据动量上涨，而不是根据对其中期或与当前价格相比的长期前景进行深入分析--并不新鲜，华尔街将这种活动称为 “迷因交易 ”是令人反感的。</blockquote></p><p> “Every Ape, Reddit investor and retail trader has their own thoughts behind the moves they make and where they put their money,”wrote TheStreet and RealMoney contributor Katherine Ross.</p><p><blockquote>“TheStreet 和 RealMoney 撰稿人凯瑟琳-罗斯（Katherine Ross）写道：”每只猿猴、Reddit 投资者和散户交易员在自己的行动背后都有自己的想法，以及把钱放在哪里。</blockquote></p><p> “One thing is for sure, though: These investors are here to stay post-pandemic.”</p><p><blockquote>“不过，有一点是肯定的： 这些投资者将在大流行后留在这里”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sgoco-carver-bancorp-meme-stock-momentum\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NEGG":"Newegg Comm Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","GME":"游戏驿站"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/sgoco-carver-bancorp-meme-stock-momentum","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134945139","content_text":"Shares of Sgoco (SGOC) surged on Monday as investors continued to push so-called meme stocks higher on expectations that momentum as well as sales and earnings potential can raise the valuations of lesser-known, lesser-proven companies.\nSgoco shares jumped more than 100% in early trading amid retail-trader touts on Reddit and StockTwits. Carver Bancorp, another meme-stock name, rose more than 16% following a three-day gain that saw its share price rise 170% last week.\nOther meme stocks including Millendo Therapeutics (MLND) and Exela Technologies (XELA) also traded higher, though AMC Entertainment (AMC) and GameStop (GME) shares were both lower.\nMeme stocks in general have been back in the spotlight amid calls on message boards including Reddit and Stocktwits to bid them higher, in some cases irrespective of any news or changes in underlying fundamentals like higher sales and earnings.\nMarin Software (MRIN) shares took off last week amid touts on Reddit message boards and other platformsto collectively push back against a potential short squeeze.\n\"Do not sell!!!\" one poster said on Stocktwits. \"Wayyyy to low price for selling.\"\nNewegg Commerce (NEGG) also saw its shares ride the rollercoaster meme-momentum wave last week, with its stock soaring 148% on Wednesday and then plunging nearly 50% between Thursday and Friday.\nIn Newegg’s case, TheStreet's Jim Cramer, in a tweet last Wednesday, called the stock a“total BGL game,”referring to when stocks are bagged, gunned and liquidated. Newegg is an online electronics retailer.\nAt the same time, others are increasingly pointing out that momentum trading – betting a stock will rise based on momentum rather than on an in-depth analysis of its intermediate - or long-term prospects compared to its current price – is nothing new, and that Wall Street labeling such activity “meme trading” is offensive.\n“Every Ape, Reddit investor and retail trader has their own thoughts behind the moves they make and where they put their money,”wrote TheStreet and RealMoney contributor Katherine Ross.\n“One thing is for sure, though: These investors are here to stay post-pandemic.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9,"SGOC":0.9,"MRIN":0.9,"NEGG":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":905,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142487768,"gmtCreate":1626168707054,"gmtModify":1631884321908,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hope this new can make stock rise further","listText":"Hope this new can make stock rise further","text":"Hope this new can make stock rise further","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142487768","repostId":"1101566017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":732,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146710865,"gmtCreate":1626099052957,"gmtModify":1631885278127,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a>Hope this stock will keep moving up..up..","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a>Hope this stock will keep moving up..up..","text":"$Bank of America(BAC)$Hope this stock will keep moving up..up..","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2a87b0000e9e2cc8d004857acb5d316","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146710865","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148532356,"gmtCreate":1625986064075,"gmtModify":1631885278181,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087253710063360","idStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a>this stock still have room to rise up","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">$Bank of America(BAC)$</a>this stock still have room to rise up","text":"$Bank of America(BAC)$this stock still have room to rise up","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e5d7373308f92f5df1b7afda5765bcb","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148532356","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":175433998,"gmtCreate":1627045600314,"gmtModify":1633768503230,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087253710063360","authorIdStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Keep faith in this stock","listText":"Keep faith in this stock","text":"Keep faith in this stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175433998","repostId":"2153092983","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141210680,"gmtCreate":1625874711740,"gmtModify":1633936583834,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087253710063360","authorIdStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Is good news to NIO stock. Choing....","listText":"Is good news to NIO stock. Choing....","text":"Is good news to NIO stock. Choing....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141210680","repostId":"1104740942","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177006471,"gmtCreate":1627161440293,"gmtModify":1633767636394,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087253710063360","authorIdStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Believe is good forecast&nbsp;","listText":"Believe is good forecast&nbsp;","text":"Believe is good forecast","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177006471","repostId":"2153938547","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2153938547","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1627085070,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2153938547?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 08:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时更多</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153938547","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few mo","content":"<p>Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon</p><p><blockquote>苹果盈利预览：最近缺乏季度预测可能会导致高管们在周二下午讨论业绩时透露有关下一次 iPhone 发布的更多暗示</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1694f71fa4dec194ef63e28ffc75776f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Heavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>无线行业的大力促销可能会使苹果在六月季度的业务受益。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.</p><p><blockquote>这一流行病可能会给通常伴随苹果公司 6 月份季度电话会议的猜测游戏增添一丝皱纹。</blockquote></p><p> Typically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>通常是第三财季收益中最重要的花絮，苹果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(苹果)$</a>定于周二下午发布报告，是该公司对 9 月份季度收入的展望和评论，这可以为该公司在下一次智能手机发布初期的预期提供线索。强劲的预测可能意味着该公司打算在财年的最后几天推出新产品线，而疲软的指引可能表明发布将推迟到第四季度。</blockquote></p><p> The problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.</p><p><blockquote>这次的问题是，苹果在疫情期间推迟了一年多才发布正式的展望，目前尚不清楚该公司何时或是否会恢复这种做法。相反，苹果一直在提供“方向性见解”，以提供一些迹象，表明其业绩如何与前几个季度相比，但众所周知，该公司对 iPhone 发布计划守口如瓶。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. analyst Brian White.</p><p><blockquote>Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. 分析师 Brian White 写道：“我们预计 iPhone 13 的上市时间最终将成为[第四财季]的决定因素，因此我们预计该公司将提供更详细的方向性评论。”</blockquote></p><p> The coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的阵容表现良好，即将到来的发布引起了人们的极大兴趣。巴克莱银行分析师蒂姆·朗 (Tim Long) 写道：“iPhone 12 周期一直很强劲，但我们认为接下来的两个周期可能会充满挑战，2022 财年和2023财年的销量可能会同比下降。”</blockquote></p><p> The June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.</p><p><blockquote>苹果将于周二公布的 6 月份季度传统上较慢<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>由于消费者正在等待下一代 iPhone 的发布，但该公司仍有望在其智能手机业务方面实现大幅增长。该公司不仅受益于与疫情早期的轻松比较，而且还应该收获异常促销的无线行业的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>注意什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>FactSet 追踪的分析师预计苹果每股收益为 1.01 美元，高于去年同期的 65 美分。Estimize 从对冲基金、学者和其他人那里众包预测，平均预期每股收益为 1.16 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue: </b>The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>FactSet 共识评级总收入为 732.6 亿美元，高于去年同期的 596.9 亿美元。在 Estimize 上，平均估计为 773.8 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.</p><p><blockquote>在细分市场层面，FactSet调查的分析师预计iPhone收入为341.9亿美元，iPad收入为71.7亿美元，Mac收入为78.6亿美元，服务收入为162.6亿美元，可穿戴设备、家居和配件类别的收入为78.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>苹果股价在过去五份财报中有四份出现下跌，但随着道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 32%，该股在过去 12 个月中上涨了 60%。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.</p><p><blockquote>在 FactSet 追踪的 44 位关注苹果股票的分析师中，33 位给予买入评级，9 位给予持有评级，2 位给予卖出评级，平均目标价为 157.88 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还有什么要注意的</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的 iPhone 业务有望创下至少三年来第二高的增长率，仅次于上一季度的增长率。FactSet 追踪的分析师预计 iPhone 收入将达到 342 亿美元，同比增长 29.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Some encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&amp;T Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></p><p><blockquote>威瑞森通信公司发出了一些令人鼓舞的信号。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>该公司最近进行了一次大型 iPhone 促销活动，试图与竞争对手 AT&amp;T Inc. 的折扣相匹配。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></blockquote></p><p> \"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .</p><p><blockquote>Verizon 首席财务官 Matthew Ellis 在公司财报看涨期权上表示：“整个季度的势头都在增强，我们选择促销活动的时机是为了充分利用经济复苏和客户活动的增加。”Verizon 约 20% 的消费者现在使用支持 5G 的手机。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James分析师Chris Caso指出，升级的数量甚至可能不是最重要的因素，因为他对去年iPhone运营商交易的分析发现，它们有助于推动更昂贵设备的更大“组合”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>他根据对去年补贴的分析写道：“如果基本型号是免费的，消费者似乎愿意每月支付几美元来升级到高端型号。”</blockquote></p><p> UBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师大卫·沃格特 (David Vogt) 也对进入第三财季报告的业务感到乐观，他指出电信行业出现了积极的迹象，例如“积极的促销”和无线商店零售流量的改善。</blockquote></p><p> But he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.</p><p><blockquote>但他指出，需求对苹果来说可能不是大问题，因为由于供应限制困扰更广泛的电子行业及其他领域，该公司的整体上涨空间被“限制”。苹果在其盈利看涨期权上解决了这些问题，预计 6 月份季度将产生 30 亿至 40 亿美元的负收入影响，预计主要影响 Mac 和 iPad 业务。</blockquote></p><p> Another key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键的叙述是，在回归家庭以外更正常的活动的情况下，这两个部分是如何更普遍地维持的。苹果的 Mac 和 iPad 是那些需要新硬件来支持远程工作和上学的人的热门选择，但分析师将关注个人电脑繁荣是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p> \"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"</p><p><blockquote>CFRA 分析师安吉洛·齐诺 (Angelo Zino) 写道：“虽然苹果将不得不在 [6 月季度] 以及此后的几个季度应对非常困难的流行病比较，但我们看到这两个类别在短期内都会带来一些有利因素。”“随着全球经济全面重新开放，我们看到企业层面的企业升级将成为需求的更大贡献者。”</blockquote></p><p> The coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.</p><p><blockquote>即将发布的结果也将是苹果新的彩色iMac系列和强大的iPad Pro的第一个需求指标，这两款产品都在春季推出，并采用了该公司定制的M1芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时更多</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat will Apple say about the next iPhone at earnings time? Maybe more than usual<blockquote>苹果在财报时会对下一代iPhone说些什么？也许比平时更多</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 08:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon</p><p><blockquote>苹果盈利预览：最近缺乏季度预测可能会导致高管们在周二下午讨论业绩时透露有关下一次 iPhone 发布的更多暗示</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1694f71fa4dec194ef63e28ffc75776f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"495\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Heavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>无线行业的大力促销可能会使苹果在六月季度的业务受益。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.</p><p><blockquote>这一流行病可能会给通常伴随苹果公司 6 月份季度电话会议的猜测游戏增添一丝皱纹。</blockquote></p><p> Typically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(AAPL)$</a> is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.</p><p><blockquote>通常是第三财季收益中最重要的花絮，苹果<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$(苹果)$</a>定于周二下午发布报告，是该公司对 9 月份季度收入的展望和评论，这可以为该公司在下一次智能手机发布初期的预期提供线索。强劲的预测可能意味着该公司打算在财年的最后几天推出新产品线，而疲软的指引可能表明发布将推迟到第四季度。</blockquote></p><p> The problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.</p><p><blockquote>这次的问题是，苹果在疫情期间推迟了一年多才发布正式的展望，目前尚不清楚该公司何时或是否会恢复这种做法。相反，苹果一直在提供“方向性见解”，以提供一些迹象，表明其业绩如何与前几个季度相比，但众所周知，该公司对 iPhone 发布计划守口如瓶。</blockquote></p><p> \"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. analyst Brian White.</p><p><blockquote>Monness, Crespi, Hardt &amp; Co. 分析师 Brian White 写道：“我们预计 iPhone 13 的上市时间最终将成为[第四财季]的决定因素，因此我们预计该公司将提供更详细的方向性评论。”</blockquote></p><p> The coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于目前的阵容表现良好，即将到来的发布引起了人们的极大兴趣。巴克莱银行分析师蒂姆·朗 (Tim Long) 写道：“iPhone 12 周期一直很强劲，但我们认为接下来的两个周期可能会充满挑战，2022 财年和2023财年的销量可能会同比下降。”</blockquote></p><p> The June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.</p><p><blockquote>苹果将于周二公布的 6 月份季度传统上较慢<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>由于消费者正在等待下一代 iPhone 的发布，但该公司仍有望在其智能手机业务方面实现大幅增长。该公司不仅受益于与疫情早期的轻松比较，而且还应该收获异常促销的无线行业的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>注意什么</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings:</b> Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.</p><p><blockquote><b>收益：</b>FactSet 追踪的分析师预计苹果每股收益为 1.01 美元，高于去年同期的 65 美分。Estimize 从对冲基金、学者和其他人那里众包预测，平均预期每股收益为 1.16 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue: </b>The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.</p><p><blockquote><b>收入：</b>FactSet 共识评级总收入为 732.6 亿美元，高于去年同期的 596.9 亿美元。在 Estimize 上，平均估计为 773.8 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> On a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.</p><p><blockquote>在细分市场层面，FactSet调查的分析师预计iPhone收入为341.9亿美元，iPad收入为71.7亿美元，Mac收入为78.6亿美元，服务收入为162.6亿美元，可穿戴设备、家居和配件类别的收入为78.3亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock movement: </b>Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票变动：</b>苹果股价在过去五份财报中有四份出现下跌，但随着道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 32%，该股在过去 12 个月中上涨了 60%。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.</p><p><blockquote>在 FactSet 追踪的 44 位关注苹果股票的分析师中，33 位给予买入评级，9 位给予持有评级，2 位给予卖出评级，平均目标价为 157.88 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What else to watch for</b></p><p><blockquote><b>还有什么要注意的</b></blockquote></p><p> Apple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的 iPhone 业务有望创下至少三年来第二高的增长率，仅次于上一季度的增长率。FactSet 追踪的分析师预计 iPhone 收入将达到 342 亿美元，同比增长 29.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Some encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&amp;T Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></p><p><blockquote>威瑞森通信公司发出了一些令人鼓舞的信号。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VZ\">$(VZ)$</a>该公司最近进行了一次大型 iPhone 促销活动，试图与竞争对手 AT&amp;T Inc. 的折扣相匹配。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/T\">$(T)$</a></blockquote></p><p> \"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .</p><p><blockquote>Verizon 首席财务官 Matthew Ellis 在公司财报看涨期权上表示：“整个季度的势头都在增强，我们选择促销活动的时机是为了充分利用经济复苏和客户活动的增加。”Verizon 约 20% 的消费者现在使用支持 5G 的手机。</blockquote></p><p> Raymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.</p><p><blockquote>Raymond James分析师Chris Caso指出，升级的数量甚至可能不是最重要的因素，因为他对去年iPhone运营商交易的分析发现，它们有助于推动更昂贵设备的更大“组合”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>他根据对去年补贴的分析写道：“如果基本型号是免费的，消费者似乎愿意每月支付几美元来升级到高端型号。”</blockquote></p><p> UBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银分析师大卫·沃格特 (David Vogt) 也对进入第三财季报告的业务感到乐观，他指出电信行业出现了积极的迹象，例如“积极的促销”和无线商店零售流量的改善。</blockquote></p><p> But he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.</p><p><blockquote>但他指出，需求对苹果来说可能不是大问题，因为由于供应限制困扰更广泛的电子行业及其他领域，该公司的整体上涨空间被“限制”。苹果在其盈利看涨期权上解决了这些问题，预计 6 月份季度将产生 30 亿至 40 亿美元的负收入影响，预计主要影响 Mac 和 iPad 业务。</blockquote></p><p> Another key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>另一个关键的叙述是，在回归家庭以外更正常的活动的情况下，这两个部分是如何更普遍地维持的。苹果的 Mac 和 iPad 是那些需要新硬件来支持远程工作和上学的人的热门选择，但分析师将关注个人电脑繁荣是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p> \"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"</p><p><blockquote>CFRA 分析师安吉洛·齐诺 (Angelo Zino) 写道：“虽然苹果将不得不在 [6 月季度] 以及此后的几个季度应对非常困难的流行病比较，但我们看到这两个类别在短期内都会带来一些有利因素。”“随着全球经济全面重新开放，我们看到企业层面的企业升级将成为需求的更大贡献者。”</blockquote></p><p> The coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.</p><p><blockquote>即将发布的结果也将是苹果新的彩色iMac系列和强大的iPad Pro的第一个需求指标，这两款产品都在春季推出，并采用了该公司定制的M1芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-will-apple-say-about-the-next-iphone-at-earnings-time-maybe-more-than-usual-11627077819?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153938547","content_text":"Apple earnings preview: Recent lack of quarterly forecasts could lead executives to divulge a few more hints about the next iPhone release when discussing results Tuesday afternoon\nHeavy promotions in the wireless industry likely benefited Apple's business during the June quarter.\nThe pandemic may add a wrinkle to the guessing game that normally accompanies Apple Inc.'s June-quarter conference call.\nTypically the most important tidbit coming out of fiscal third-quarter earnings, which Apple $(AAPL)$ is scheduled to report Tuesday afternoon, is the company's outlook and commentary around its September-quarter revenue, which can hold clues as to what the company expects in the early days of its next smartphone launch. A strong forecast may imply that the company intends to make its new lineup available during the waning days of its fiscal year, while weaker guidance could suggest the launch will be pushed in to the calendar fourth quarter.\nThe problem this time around is that Apple has held off on issuing a formal outlook for more than a year amid the pandemic, and it remains unclear when or if the company will resume the practice. Apple has instead been offering \"directional insights\" to offer some indication of how its results could stack up to those of prior quarters, but it has been notoriously tight-lipped about plans for iPhone launches.\n\"We expect the timing of iPhone 13 availability will ultimately prove to be the swing factor in [the fiscal fourth quarter], thus we anticipate the company will provide more granular directional commentary,\" wrote Monness, Crespi, Hardt & Co. analyst Brian White.\nThe coming launch is of keen interest given that the current lineup has performed well. \"The iPhone 12 cycle has been strong but we believe the next two cycles may prove challenging with units potentially down [year over year] in FY22 and FY23,\" wrote Barclays analyst Tim Long.\nThe June quarter that Apple will report Tuesday is traditionally a slower one, as consumers wait for the next iPhone launch, but the company is still expected to deliver big growth in its smartphone business. Not only does the company have the benefit of easy comparisons to the early days of the pandemic, but it should also be reaping the rewards of an unusually promotional wireless industry.\nWhat to watch for\nEarnings: Analysts tracked by FactSet expect Apple to post $1.01 in earnings per share, up from 65 cents a year earlier. According to Estimize, which crowdsources projections from hedge funds, academics, and others, the average expectation is for $1.16 a share in EPS.\nRevenue: The FactSet consensus calls for $73.26 billion in overall revenue, up from $59.69 billion a year prior. On Estimize, the average estimate is for $77.38 billion.\nOn a segment level, analysts surveyed by FactSet project $34.19 billion in iPhone revenue, $7.17 billion in iPad revenue, $7.86 billion in Mac revenue, $16.26 billion in services revenue, and $7.83 billion in revenue for the wearables, home, and accessories category.\nStock movement: Apple shares have fallen after four of the past five earnings reports, though the stock is up 60% over the past 12 months as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased 32%.\nOf the 44 analysts tracked by FactSet who cover Apple's stock, 33 have buy ratings, nine have hold ratings and two have sell ratings, with an average price target of $157.88.\nWhat else to watch for\nApple's iPhone business is set up for its second-largest rate of growth in at least three years, behind only what was seen in the previous quarter. Analysts tracked by FactSet are calling for $34.2 billion in iPhone revenue, up 29.4% from a year earlier.\nSome encouraging signals came from Verizon Communications Inc. $(VZ)$, which recently ran a big iPhone promotion as it sought to match discounts at rival AT&T Inc. $(T)$\n\"Momentum built throughout the quarter, and we timed our promotions to take full advantage of the economic recovery and increased customer activity,\" Verizon Chief Financial Officer Matthew Ellis said on his company's earnings call. About 20% of Verizon's consumer base is now using 5G-enabled phones .\nRaymond James analyst Chris Caso noted that the quantity of upgrades might not even be the most important factor, as his analysis of iPhone carrier deals from last year found that they can be helpful in driving a greater \"mix\" of more expensive devices.\n\"Consumers appear to have been willing to pay the few dollars per month to upgrade to higher-end models, if the base model was offered for free,\" he wrote, based on analyzing last year's subsidies.\nUBS analyst David Vogt is also feeling upbeat about the business heading into the fiscal third-quarter report, pointing to positive signs in the telecommunications industry like the \"aggressive promotions\" and improving retail traffic at wireless stores.\nBut he notes that demand may not be the big issue for Apple, as the company's overall upside is \"gated\" due to supply constraints plaguing the broader electronics industry and beyond. Apple addressed these issues on its earnings call, projecting a $3 billion to $4 billion negative revenue impact in the June quarter that was mainly expected to affect the Mac and iPad businesses.\nAnother key narrative is how those two segments held up more generally given a return to more normalized activities outside the home. Apple's Macs and iPads were popular purchases among those needing new hardware to power remote working and schooling, but analysts will be looking to see whether the personal-computer boom is sustainable.\n\"While Apple will have to contend with lapping very difficult pandemic comparisons in the [June quarter] and for several quarters thereafter, we see several near-term tailwinds from both categories,\" wrote CFRA analyst Angelo Zino. \"We see corporate upgrades on the enterprise level becoming a bigger contributor to demand as the economy fully reopens across the globe.\"\nThe coming results will also be the first gauge on demand for Apple's new colorful iMac lineup and powerful iPad Pro , both of which rolled out in the spring and feature the company's custom M1 chip.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144264495,"gmtCreate":1626301832517,"gmtModify":1633928200626,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087253710063360","authorIdStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good to buy company that pay out dividend&nbsp;","listText":"Good to buy company that pay out dividend&nbsp;","text":"Good to buy company that pay out dividend","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144264495","repostId":"2151751740","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147420217,"gmtCreate":1626386294539,"gmtModify":1633927360561,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087253710063360","authorIdStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Can you recommend which REITs to invest?&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573203718015318\">@JenneyJJ</a>: I am looking at REITs. What about you?","listText":"Can you recommend which REITs to invest?&nbsp;//<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3573203718015318\">@JenneyJJ</a>: I am looking at REITs. What about you?","text":"Can you recommend which REITs to invest? //@JenneyJJ: I am looking at REITs. What about you?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147420217","repostId":"2151751740","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":859,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142487768,"gmtCreate":1626168707054,"gmtModify":1631884321908,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087253710063360","authorIdStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hope this new can make stock rise further","listText":"Hope this new can make stock rise further","text":"Hope this new can make stock rise further","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142487768","repostId":"1101566017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":732,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174448983,"gmtCreate":1627132306242,"gmtModify":1631884320661,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087253710063360","authorIdStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hope both stock will rise","listText":"Hope both stock will rise","text":"Hope both stock will rise","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174448983","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks<blockquote>蔚来股票会追随特斯拉的脚步吗？这两只电动汽车股票之间需要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-24 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>  <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>  <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>让我们来看看蔚来与今天的特斯拉相比如何，蔚来独特的卖点，以及两家公司之间的相似之处。</li><li>蔚来是一个高增长的选择，相对于特斯拉的估值，它似乎并不算太贵。</li><li>然而，蔚来并不是一只低风险股票，它可能不是每个人的好选择。投资者还应该考虑蔚来汽车相对于传统汽车公司的估值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ipopba/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的电动汽车企业之一，通过有吸引力的品牌和独特的BaaS产品，吸引了消费者和投资者的极大兴趣。然而，如今该公司的规模仍然远小于目前引领全球电动汽车市场的特斯拉 (TSLA)。蔚来目前专注于国内市场，特斯拉还是一家小公司时也是如此，但蔚来也将努力在海外市场抢占市场份额。股价已经大幅上涨，但如果蔚来能够复制特斯拉的成功，这可能是完全合理的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉股价</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年，两家公司都受益于人们对电动汽车日益增长的兴趣，这一趋势导致大多数电动汽车纯玩家的股价迅速上涨。电动汽车市场份额不断增长、电动汽车购买补贴等宽松政策以及大规模货币刺激措施相结合，蔚来和特斯拉的股价迅速上涨。蔚来去年上涨了 245%，而特斯拉同期上涨了 101%。然而，这两家公司目前的股价均低于历史高点，该高点在 2021 年初触及，之后市场对电动汽车 pureplays 的情绪有所降温。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p><p><blockquote>快速浏览一下分析师的目标价，我们发现特斯拉的交易价格几乎完全符合共识，而蔚来的交易价格比分析师目标价低约 30%。如果分析师界是正确的，那么蔚来在这里是一个更好的投资，因为预计特斯拉的股价明年不会大幅上涨，而蔚来的分析师目标价有很大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来和特斯拉相似吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你关注的是什么。这两家公司有相似之处，但也有不同之处。因此，人们可以说，在某些方面，这两者是相似的，但在其他方面，它们不是。让我们看几件事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>商业模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都专注于电动汽车领域，尽管特斯拉多年来也一直在发展其他一些业务，例如储能。特斯拉的大部分收入是通过销售电动汽车产生的，这也是蔚来的运营方式。两家公司都专注于电动汽车的高端市场，销售与宝马、梅赛德斯和雷克萨斯等品牌竞争的高价汽车。两家公司都提供少量不同的车辆，特斯拉是众所周知的 S、X、3 和 Y，而蔚来则提供轿车 (ET7) 和三款 SUV (EC6、ES6、ES8)。尽管蔚来如今是一家规模较小的公司，但两家公司的车型阵容并没有太大区别。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司都为客户提供某种类型的充电基础设施，就特斯拉而言，这就是增压器网络，特斯拉车主可以在其中为汽车充电，功率高达 250kW，具体取决于安装的增压器版本。蔚来正在采取不同的方法，为客户提供电池即服务解决方案。蔚来车主可以在蔚来充电站将电池更换为充满电的电池，这一过程只需几分钟，因此与特斯拉和其他电动汽车制造商提供的常规电动汽车充电相比要快得多。因此，BaaS在充电/更换时间方面具有优势，但应该注意的是，与蔚来的换电站相比，特斯拉的超级充电站在世界各地更为常见。在其他市场推出该功能将需要大量资本支出，但与包括特斯拉在内的所有其他电动汽车厂商所提供的产品相比，蔚来汽车的产品是一个独特的卖点。这是否最终会带来回报还有待观察，但随着电动汽车领域的竞争日益激烈，这可能成为蔚来的一大优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>规模、增长和估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司的规模差异很大，无论是在收入和汽车销量方面，还是在两家公司的市值方面。蔚来第二季度交付了22,000辆汽车，同比增长112%，年增长率约为90,000辆。与此同时，特斯拉在第二季度交付了 201,000 辆汽车，高于 2020 年第二季度的 103,000 辆汽车。这是同比的强劲增长，尽管略低于 100%，因此低于蔚来目前的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p><p><blockquote>与蔚来相比，特斯拉每季度交付的汽车数量约为 9 倍，当我们查看两家公司的市值时，我们会发现这一比例几乎完全相同，因为特斯拉 6400 亿美元的市值约为 9 倍蔚来的 720 亿美元。在类似的增长率下，这将是完全有意义的，但看起来蔚来目前可能是更好的交易，因为它的估值相当，同时产生了更好的增长。未来几个季度尤其如此，特斯拉的增长预计将放缓：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p><p><blockquote>预计特斯拉的收入将从2021年的490亿美元增长到2023年的830亿美元，年增长率为30%。与此同时，蔚来预计其收入将在 2021 年至 2023 年间从 54 亿美元激增至 128 亿美元，年增长率为 54%。因此，相对而言，预计未来两年蔚来的增长速度将远远超过特斯拉。老实说，这并不奇怪，因为大数定律表明，对于一家公司来说，保持巨大的增长率变得越来越困难，而特斯拉现在似乎已经达到了这一点——每年增加 50% 以上的收入是不可能永远的。这甚至不一定是特斯拉的错，事实上，许多优质成长型公司都经历过同样的事情。但投资者仍然应该考虑这个重要事实——与我们过去看到的相比，特斯拉未来几年的增长将不那么令人兴奋，而蔚来等同行的增长速度更快。</blockquote></p><p> The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p><p><blockquote>当我们从长远来看时，情况也是如此。蔚来 2025 年收入预期为 226 亿美元，比 2023 年预期再增长 80%，比分析师对 2021 年的预测增长 320%。与此同时，特斯拉预计 2025 年收入将达到 1225 亿美元，这是一个很大的数字，但比 2023 年增长相对较弱的 48%，比 2021 年总共增长 150%。因此，在 2021 年至 2025 年间，蔚来的收入将增长 4 倍，而特斯拉的收入将增长 2.5 倍——在其他条件相同的情况下，这是一个有意义的差异，应该可以让蔚来获得溢价估值，就像特斯拉值得拥有与大众汽车等传统参与者相比的溢价估值（OTCPK：VWAGY）。</blockquote></p><p> Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p><p><blockquote>将 2025 年的收入预测与两家公司目前的估值进行比较，我们发现蔚来的交易价格为 2025 年销售额的 3.2 倍，而特斯拉的 2025 年销售额倍数为 5.2。对于长期投资者来说，蔚来目前似乎更有价值，因为当我们展望未来时，它的销售倍数要低得多。然而，这并不一定意味着蔚来很便宜，因为与传统汽车公司的估值相比，即使是 2025 年 3.2 倍的销售倍数也相对较高。然而，蔚来看起来比特斯拉便宜，即使其股票绝对不便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来能和特斯拉一样值钱吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly&nbsp;overpriced&nbsp;today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are&nbsp;underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p><p><blockquote>这个问题的答案取决于你所关注的时间范围。如今，蔚来比特斯拉小得多，因此理所当然地以较小的市值进行交易。还应该指出的是，不能保证特斯拉的股票是电动汽车公司估值的一个很好的例子——至少，它的股票今天有可能被严重高估，我个人也相信这一点（请注意，有些人会认为股票价格被低估，这也是可能性之一，尽管我个人并不持有这种信念）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p><p><blockquote>当我们暂时假设特斯拉今天的估值是正确的，并且电动汽车公司每年销售约 80 万辆汽车时，确实应该获得 6000 亿美元左右的市值，那么蔚来最终也可能达到这个目标，尽管不是在短期内。蔚来今年将销售约 9 万辆汽车，到 2025 年这一数字应该会增长到约 40 万辆。如果蔚来的销量在这一点后每年增长 15%，那么到 2030 年（即 9 年后），它可能会售出约 80 万辆汽车。如果想要假设更快的增长，每年 80 万辆汽车的大关也可能在 2030 年之前跨过，例如在 2028 年或 2029 年。如果我们现在真的选择 2030 年，那么按照与特斯拉类似的交付量与市值比率，蔚来到 2030 年的估值可能会超过 6000 亿美元。换句话说，如果我们假设当前的增长预测是现实的，并且类似特斯拉的估值是合适的，那么九年后蔚来的价值可能与特斯拉（今天）一样高。当然，这是两个主要的如果，尤其是第二点，我相信还远未确定。就我个人而言，看到特斯拉的估值压缩不会太惊讶，因此蔚来在 2030 年的市值可能远低于 6000 亿美元的水平，即使它继续大幅增长。蔚来汽车的增长也有可能令人失望，目前的预测过于乐观，尽管我认为蔚来凭借其独特的BaaS模式和在国内市场尤其知名的强大品牌，处于有利的增长位置。</blockquote></p><p> It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p><p><blockquote>还需要注意的是，特斯拉2030年的市值可能与6000亿美元有很大不同，因此即使蔚来达到这个水平，也根本不能保证两家公司的市值相似。到那时，特斯拉的估值可能会更高，例如，如果方舟模型是正确的（我个人认为不太可能）。为了回答上述问题，人们可以说，蔚来可能在8-10年内价值数千亿美元，就像特斯拉一样，但这根本不能保证。即使发生了这种情况，到那时特斯拉的价值可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来现在是买入还是卖出的好股票？</b></blockquote></p><p> When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p><p><blockquote>当将蔚来视为一项投资时，它最终是否会变得像特斯拉一样大或高估值并不重要。相反，投资者应该问问自己，未来几年他们可以预期的总回报是多少，以及这些预期回报相对于蔚来商业模式的风险是否足够高。关于这些风险，值得一提的是，该公司尚未盈利，这意味着蔚来依赖其资产负债表上的现金进行增长投资。最重要的是，电动汽车领域的竞争正在加剧，市场份额之争可能会在未来几年给利润率带来压力，尽管蔚来似乎由于其电池更换而处于相对有利的地位，我相信这是一个强大的卖点。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，该公司对中国本土市场的依赖是一个应牢记的潜在风险，尽管还应该指出的是，目前中国政府似乎对中国电动汽车公司非常宽容。</blockquote></p><p> One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p><p><blockquote>有人可能会说，相对于传统汽车公司的估值，整个电动汽车行业的估值过高。与纯电动汽车相比，即使是大众或福特等拥有有吸引力的电动汽车产品的传统厂商也能享受巨大的折扣。但如果想投资电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来似乎并不是一个糟糕的选择。该公司结合了强大的品牌、独特的 BaaS 产品、高增长率以及与电动汽车之王特斯拉的估值相比折扣的股票交易。蔚来的收入略高于 2025 年的 3 倍，与其他电动汽车纯电动汽车相比似乎并不算太贵，尽管当然，这仍然代表着与传统厂商相比的溢价。如果蔚来能够很好地执行并继续推出深受消费者欢迎的新车型，从长远来看，其股价可能具有巨大的上涨潜力。如果电动汽车股票成为不受欢迎的投资，蔚来股票也可能有相当大的负面影响，然而，这并不是一个低风险的选择。根据您的风险承受能力，如果您想要高增长的电动汽车 pureplay，蔚来仍然很有价值。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3385,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178040810,"gmtCreate":1626775520430,"gmtModify":1633771160707,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087253710063360","authorIdStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"We almost see light but now go back to before","listText":"We almost see light but now go back to before","text":"We almost see light but now go back to before","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178040810","repostId":"1174094323","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177006668,"gmtCreate":1627161294154,"gmtModify":1631892759880,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087253710063360","authorIdStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRK\">$Comstock Resources(CRK)$</a>just thinking of selling it?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRK\">$Comstock Resources(CRK)$</a>just thinking of selling it?","text":"$Comstock Resources(CRK)$just thinking of selling it?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9c7fddd3af00cbbd4ee03899d64ce6","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177006668","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4378,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175494782,"gmtCreate":1627045455746,"gmtModify":1633768505044,"author":{"id":"4087253710063360","authorId":"4087253710063360","name":"Asta168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0374ed79dc30b8943141ee9dcb8ed63b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087253710063360","authorIdStr":"4087253710063360"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Really hope this is a good year for this stock","listText":"Really hope this is a good year for this stock","text":"Really hope this is a good year for this stock","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175494782","repostId":"1116494249","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2089,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}