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2021-08-18

Tepper sell mostly FAANG counter and adding Uber ..... holding cash or expecting buy in dip!

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2021-08-04

Vaccine follow by booster.... then booster combine w flu med ...how many vaccine a human need!

3 COVID Stocks That Could Soar Higher<blockquote>3只可能飙升的新冠股票</blockquote>

2021-09-10

10 to 15% good for buy the dip

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2021-08-09

Too big to move exponentially...this will be long term investment

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2021-07-29

With herd immunity and movement allowed, screen time will be reduce..everyone is looking forward to step out

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2021-07-13

So volatile, bad news and good news one after another

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2021-07-12

looking forward

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2021-08-23

BRK & SE .... the least also 10% return pa .... long term holding ..[美金] [美金]

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2021-07-13

Good

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2021-12-21

Strongly agree

Apple Stock: If You're Buying the Dip, Here's What You Need to Know<blockquote>苹果股票：如果您逢低买入，以下是您需要了解的内容</blockquote>

2021-10-27

Holding BRK.B, hassle free

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2021-07-26

Busy week ..looks like volatility will be high

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2021-10-14

SBUX one month Call looks cheap .... if earning can pump up the volatility, upside potential looks bright

How Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season<blockquote>期权投资者应该如何应对本财报季</blockquote>

2021-07-13

Looking forward if earnings can lift market higher

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2021-09-28

20% will be good for those with cash to buy the dip and DCA down. Wish it come through

Morgan Stanley Dismisses Market's "Strong Rebound", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment<blockquote>摩根士丹利否认市场“强劲反弹”，对即将到来的盈利令人失望仍持悲观态度</blockquote>

2021-07-26

6 out of 17 is biopharma/medical related... tailwind of covid!

US IPO Week Ahead: 17 IPOs are coming<blockquote>未来一周美国IPO：17家IPO即将上市</blockquote>

2021-07-13

Good

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2021-07-13

Looking forward earnings result

Dow narrowly misses first close at 35,000 but all 3 stock indexes log back-to-back record finishes ahead of bank earnings<blockquote>道琼斯指数首次收于35,000点，但所有3个股指均在银行财报公布前连续创下历史新高</blockquote>

2021-07-12

Everyone will say crash on the way when all time high

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2021-10-04

IMO Index or theme ETF (e g. ESG) is more stable rather than sector ETF ..... for long term. Commission & Tax will eat into profit for short term as well.

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agree","listText":"Strongly agree","text":"Strongly agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693715823","repostId":"1112391676","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112391676","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640056217,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112391676?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: If You're Buying the Dip, Here's What You Need to Know<blockquote>苹果股票：如果您逢低买入，以下是您需要了解的内容</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112391676","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Bargain hunters may start to consider buying Apple stock on the dip, following the December selloff. Here is what they should know first.Apple stock remains in a funk. Only one week to the dayafter I tossed around the ideaof trimming the position, shares of the Cupertino company dipped 7% from the $180 peak against the Nasdaq’s 4% decline, nearly entering correction territory.A few brave investors and traders must be taking this opportunity to start buying the dip. The Apple Maven highlights thr","content":"<p>Bargain hunters may start to consider buying Apple stock on the dip, following the December selloff. Here is what they should know first.</p><p><blockquote>继12月抛售之后，逢低买入苹果股票的人可能会开始考虑逢低买入。以下是他们首先应该知道的。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock&nbsp;remains in a funk. Only one week to the dayafter I tossed around the ideaof trimming the position, shares of the Cupertino company dipped 7% from the $180 peak against the Nasdaq’s 4% decline, nearly entering correction territory.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票仍然处于恐慌状态。就在我提出削减头寸的想法一周后，这家库比蒂诺公司的股价从180美元的峰值下跌了7%，而纳斯达克则下跌了4%，几乎进入回调区域。</blockquote></p><p> A few brave investors and traders must be taking this opportunity to start buying the dip. The Apple Maven highlights three facts that these bargain hunters should keep in mind.</p><p><blockquote>一些勇敢的投资者和交易者一定会借此机会开始逢低买入。这位苹果专家强调了这些抄底者应该记住的三个事实。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a182a349bbd4ca16a13dace221ec341e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in China.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果国内门店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. Valuations are looking more attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.估值看起来更具吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL is far from being a dirt cheap stock. The price-to-earnings ratio today is still higher than it had been for at least the full decade prior to the start of the pandemic (see chart below). However, with the recent decline in share price but still resilient business fundamentals, valuations are starting to look more compelling.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司远非一只非常便宜的股票。如今的市盈率仍高于疫情开始前至少整整十年的水平（见下图）。然而，随着近期股价下跌但业务基本面仍有弹性，估值开始看起来更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ae50cce66d14520a3db0ce721b79a3\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"389\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL's historical price-to-earnings ratio.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL的历史市盈率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The last read on the graph above shows a P/E of 29.0 times as of November 30. As of last check, on December 20, the fiscal 2022 multiple had dropped to 27.5 times. These are roughly the same levels of June 2020, after which Apple stock moved 85% higher in a year and a half.</p><p><blockquote>上图的最后一次读数显示，截至11月30日，市盈率为29.0倍。截至12月20日上次检查，2022财年市盈率已降至27.5倍。这些水平与2020年6月大致相同，此后苹果股价在一年半内上涨了85%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2. The deeper the hole, the higher the gains</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2.洞越深，收益越高</b></blockquote></p><p> “Buy low, sell high”. The mantra may seem overly simplistic, but the strategy has worked wonders in the case of AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>“低买高卖”。这个口号可能看起来过于简单，但这一策略在苹果公司的案例中创造了奇迹。</blockquote></p><p> We have often mentioned here, on the Apple Maven channel, that shares of the Cupertino company&nbsp;do best when bought after a selloff. Historically, the one-year gains have been 22% when the stock is bought near a peak, but nearly 40% when bought after a 15% drawdown.</p><p><blockquote>我们在苹果Maven频道上经常提到，库比蒂诺公司的股票在抛售后买入时表现最好。从历史上看，当该股接近峰值时，一年涨幅为22%，但在下跌15%后买入时，一年涨幅接近40%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9439be7d48cbf04254a822d9d57576f3\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: Average one-year return on AAPL, by strategy.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：按策略划分的AAPL平均一年回报率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Could this time be different for dip buyers? I think not. To be clear, I do not believe that every stock is worth owning on weakness, as “40% of all stocks have&nbsp;suffered&nbsp;a permanent 70%-plus decline from their peak value”.</p><p><blockquote>对于逢低买入者来说，这次会有所不同吗？我不这么认为。需要明确的是，我不认为每只股票都值得在疲软时持有，因为“40%的股票从峰值永久下跌了70%以上”。</blockquote></p><p> But in the case of Apple, it is highly likely that share price will eventually head higher again, shaking off short-term bearishness and chasing the strong business fundamentals. Having the patience to wait for the next rally is crucial.</p><p><blockquote>但就苹果而言，股价最终极有可能再次走高，摆脱短期看跌情绪，追逐强劲的商业基本面。有耐心等待下一次反弹至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3. Don’t underestimate volatility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3.不要低估波动性</b></blockquote></p><p> All the above sounds bullish at first glance, and an incentive to buy Apple at the current share price of around $168. But if doing so, I urge traders and investors to pay attention to volatility.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，以上所有这些听起来都是看涨的，也是以目前168美元左右的股价买入苹果的动力。但如果这样做，我敦促交易者和投资者注意波动性。</blockquote></p><p> The emotional and psychological aspects of investing can be as important as the quantitative considerations, in my view. Those who buy dips must be willing to endure higher volatility, which has increased sharply for AAPL in the past few weeks — see below.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，投资的情感和心理方面与定量考虑一样重要。那些逢低买入的人必须愿意忍受更高的波动性，过去几周苹果公司的波动性急剧增加——见下文。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eace3c9293acb54a4dc217debd6a44be\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 4: Annual volatility in AAPL, 1-month rolling.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图4：AAPL年度波动率，1个月滚动。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Because Apple stock price is likely to ricochet in the short term, some might be tempted to sell their shares prematurely, should they drop well below current levels. If buying AAPL, be sure to have a clear exit strategy to avoid falling victim to spur-of-the-moment decisions.</p><p><blockquote>由于苹果股价可能会在短期内反弹，如果股价远低于当前水平，一些人可能会过早出售股票。如果购买AAPL，请务必制定明确的退出策略，以避免成为一时冲动决定的受害者。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: If You're Buying the Dip, Here's What You Need to Know<blockquote>苹果股票：如果您逢低买入，以下是您需要了解的内容</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: If You're Buying the Dip, Here's What You Need to Know<blockquote>苹果股票：如果您逢低买入，以下是您需要了解的内容</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-21 11:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bargain hunters may start to consider buying Apple stock on the dip, following the December selloff. Here is what they should know first.</p><p><blockquote>继12月抛售之后，逢低买入苹果股票的人可能会开始考虑逢低买入。以下是他们首先应该知道的。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock&nbsp;remains in a funk. Only one week to the dayafter I tossed around the ideaof trimming the position, shares of the Cupertino company dipped 7% from the $180 peak against the Nasdaq’s 4% decline, nearly entering correction territory.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票仍然处于恐慌状态。就在我提出削减头寸的想法一周后，这家库比蒂诺公司的股价从180美元的峰值下跌了7%，而纳斯达克则下跌了4%，几乎进入回调区域。</blockquote></p><p> A few brave investors and traders must be taking this opportunity to start buying the dip. The Apple Maven highlights three facts that these bargain hunters should keep in mind.</p><p><blockquote>一些勇敢的投资者和交易者一定会借此机会开始逢低买入。这位苹果专家强调了这些抄底者应该记住的三个事实。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a182a349bbd4ca16a13dace221ec341e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in China.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果国内门店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. Valuations are looking more attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.估值看起来更具吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL is far from being a dirt cheap stock. The price-to-earnings ratio today is still higher than it had been for at least the full decade prior to the start of the pandemic (see chart below). However, with the recent decline in share price but still resilient business fundamentals, valuations are starting to look more compelling.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司远非一只非常便宜的股票。如今的市盈率仍高于疫情开始前至少整整十年的水平（见下图）。然而，随着近期股价下跌但业务基本面仍有弹性，估值开始看起来更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ae50cce66d14520a3db0ce721b79a3\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"389\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL's historical price-to-earnings ratio.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL的历史市盈率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The last read on the graph above shows a P/E of 29.0 times as of November 30. As of last check, on December 20, the fiscal 2022 multiple had dropped to 27.5 times. These are roughly the same levels of June 2020, after which Apple stock moved 85% higher in a year and a half.</p><p><blockquote>上图的最后一次读数显示，截至11月30日，市盈率为29.0倍。截至12月20日上次检查，2022财年市盈率已降至27.5倍。这些水平与2020年6月大致相同，此后苹果股价在一年半内上涨了85%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2. The deeper the hole, the higher the gains</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2.洞越深，收益越高</b></blockquote></p><p> “Buy low, sell high”. The mantra may seem overly simplistic, but the strategy has worked wonders in the case of AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>“低买高卖”。这个口号可能看起来过于简单，但这一策略在苹果公司的案例中创造了奇迹。</blockquote></p><p> We have often mentioned here, on the Apple Maven channel, that shares of the Cupertino company&nbsp;do best when bought after a selloff. Historically, the one-year gains have been 22% when the stock is bought near a peak, but nearly 40% when bought after a 15% drawdown.</p><p><blockquote>我们在苹果Maven频道上经常提到，库比蒂诺公司的股票在抛售后买入时表现最好。从历史上看，当该股接近峰值时，一年涨幅为22%，但在下跌15%后买入时，一年涨幅接近40%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9439be7d48cbf04254a822d9d57576f3\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: Average one-year return on AAPL, by strategy.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：按策略划分的AAPL平均一年回报率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Could this time be different for dip buyers? I think not. To be clear, I do not believe that every stock is worth owning on weakness, as “40% of all stocks have&nbsp;suffered&nbsp;a permanent 70%-plus decline from their peak value”.</p><p><blockquote>对于逢低买入者来说，这次会有所不同吗？我不这么认为。需要明确的是，我不认为每只股票都值得在疲软时持有，因为“40%的股票从峰值永久下跌了70%以上”。</blockquote></p><p> But in the case of Apple, it is highly likely that share price will eventually head higher again, shaking off short-term bearishness and chasing the strong business fundamentals. Having the patience to wait for the next rally is crucial.</p><p><blockquote>但就苹果而言，股价最终极有可能再次走高，摆脱短期看跌情绪，追逐强劲的商业基本面。有耐心等待下一次反弹至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3. Don’t underestimate volatility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3.不要低估波动性</b></blockquote></p><p> All the above sounds bullish at first glance, and an incentive to buy Apple at the current share price of around $168. But if doing so, I urge traders and investors to pay attention to volatility.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，以上所有这些听起来都是看涨的，也是以目前168美元左右的股价买入苹果的动力。但如果这样做，我敦促交易者和投资者注意波动性。</blockquote></p><p> The emotional and psychological aspects of investing can be as important as the quantitative considerations, in my view. Those who buy dips must be willing to endure higher volatility, which has increased sharply for AAPL in the past few weeks — see below.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，投资的情感和心理方面与定量考虑一样重要。那些逢低买入的人必须愿意忍受更高的波动性，过去几周苹果公司的波动性急剧增加——见下文。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eace3c9293acb54a4dc217debd6a44be\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 4: Annual volatility in AAPL, 1-month rolling.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图4：AAPL年度波动率，1个月滚动。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Because Apple stock price is likely to ricochet in the short term, some might be tempted to sell their shares prematurely, should they drop well below current levels. If buying AAPL, be sure to have a clear exit strategy to avoid falling victim to spur-of-the-moment decisions.</p><p><blockquote>由于苹果股价可能会在短期内反弹，如果股价远低于当前水平，一些人可能会过早出售股票。如果购买AAPL，请务必制定明确的退出策略，以避免成为一时冲动决定的受害者。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-3-key-facts-dip-buyers-must-know\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-3-key-facts-dip-buyers-must-know","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112391676","content_text":"Bargain hunters may start to consider buying Apple stock on the dip, following the December selloff. Here is what they should know first.\nApple stock remains in a funk. Only one week to the dayafter I tossed around the ideaof trimming the position, shares of the Cupertino company dipped 7% from the $180 peak against the Nasdaq’s 4% decline, nearly entering correction territory.\nA few brave investors and traders must be taking this opportunity to start buying the dip. The Apple Maven highlights three facts that these bargain hunters should keep in mind.\nFigure 1: Apple store in China.\n#1. Valuations are looking more attractive\nAAPL is far from being a dirt cheap stock. The price-to-earnings ratio today is still higher than it had been for at least the full decade prior to the start of the pandemic (see chart below). However, with the recent decline in share price but still resilient business fundamentals, valuations are starting to look more compelling.\nFigure 2: AAPL's historical price-to-earnings ratio.\nThe last read on the graph above shows a P/E of 29.0 times as of November 30. As of last check, on December 20, the fiscal 2022 multiple had dropped to 27.5 times. These are roughly the same levels of June 2020, after which Apple stock moved 85% higher in a year and a half.\n#2. The deeper the hole, the higher the gains\n“Buy low, sell high”. The mantra may seem overly simplistic, but the strategy has worked wonders in the case of AAPL.\nWe have often mentioned here, on the Apple Maven channel, that shares of the Cupertino company do best when bought after a selloff. Historically, the one-year gains have been 22% when the stock is bought near a peak, but nearly 40% when bought after a 15% drawdown.\nFigure 3: Average one-year return on AAPL, by strategy.\nCould this time be different for dip buyers? I think not. To be clear, I do not believe that every stock is worth owning on weakness, as “40% of all stocks have suffered a permanent 70%-plus decline from their peak value”.\nBut in the case of Apple, it is highly likely that share price will eventually head higher again, shaking off short-term bearishness and chasing the strong business fundamentals. Having the patience to wait for the next rally is crucial.\n#3. Don’t underestimate volatility\nAll the above sounds bullish at first glance, and an incentive to buy Apple at the current share price of around $168. But if doing so, I urge traders and investors to pay attention to volatility.\nThe emotional and psychological aspects of investing can be as important as the quantitative considerations, in my view. Those who buy dips must be willing to endure higher volatility, which has increased sharply for AAPL in the past few weeks — see below.\nFigure 4: Annual volatility in AAPL, 1-month rolling.\nBecause Apple stock price is likely to ricochet in the short term, some might be tempted to sell their shares prematurely, should they drop well below current levels. If buying AAPL, be sure to have a clear exit strategy to avoid falling victim to spur-of-the-moment decisions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855916155,"gmtCreate":1635323901479,"gmtModify":1635324029476,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Holding BRK.B, hassle free","listText":"Holding BRK.B, hassle free","text":"Holding BRK.B, hassle free","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855916155","repostId":"2178408679","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825816809,"gmtCreate":1634216569931,"gmtModify":1634216607695,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SBUX one month Call looks cheap .... if earning can pump up the volatility,&nbsp; upside potential looks bright&nbsp;","listText":"SBUX one month Call looks cheap .... if earning can pump up the volatility,&nbsp; upside potential looks bright&nbsp;","text":"SBUX one month Call looks cheap .... if earning can pump up the volatility, upside potential looks bright","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825816809","repostId":"1161146997","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161146997","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634201365,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161146997?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 16:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season<blockquote>期权投资者应该如何应对本财报季</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161146997","media":"Barrons","summary":"At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analys","content":"<p>At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analysts are generally worried about earnings growth, and the options market is a cauldron of coiled anxiety.</p><p><blockquote>在第三季度财报季伊始，可以说投资者感到紧张，分析师普遍担心盈利增长，期权市场是一个焦虑不安的大锅。</blockquote></p><p> The cause for this sour sentiment? Expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon raise interest rates, for a variety of reasons.</p><p><blockquote>这种酸楚情绪的原因是什么？出于多种原因，人们对美联储可能很快加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> The economy is beset by inflationary pressures. Supply chains are struggling to keep pace with consumer and corporate demand for everything from semiconductors to toilet paper. Economic growth, which ultimately drives corporate earnings, appears to be slowing, and that generally portends poorly for stock prices. The drama in Washington over raising the debt ceiling, and dueling legislative agendas, adds a circus-like air to the market.</p><p><blockquote>经济受到通货膨胀压力的困扰。供应链正在努力跟上消费者和企业对从半导体到卫生纸等各种产品的需求。最终推动企业盈利的经济增长似乎正在放缓，这通常对股价来说是个坏兆头。华盛顿围绕提高债务上限和立法议程的争论给市场增添了马戏团般的气氛。</blockquote></p><p> What is less discussed is that the rules of the game are changing. When the Fed finally raises interest rates, most investors will have to learn some new tricks.</p><p><blockquote>较少讨论的是，游戏规则正在发生变化。当美联储最终加息时，大多数投资者将不得不学习一些新技巧。</blockquote></p><p> After 20 years of easy-money policies, investors have come to rely on the mighty “Fed put”—the belief that the Fed will do whatever it takes to keep the stock market from falling too far. Now, it seems the Fed put&nbsp;might expire after this earnings season, and making money in the stock and options markets may no longer be so easy.</p><p><blockquote>经过20年的宽松货币政策，投资者开始依赖强大的“美联储看跌期权”——相信美联储将不惜一切代价阻止股市下跌太多。现在看来，美联储看跌期权可能会在本财报季后到期，在股票和期权市场赚钱可能不再那么容易。</blockquote></p><p> The good news? There are ways to monetize these unusual conditions during an event-heavy calendar.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是什么？在活动繁忙的日历中，有一些方法可以将这些不寻常的情况货币化。</blockquote></p><p> There are many crosscurrents moving above and below the market’s surface. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;is dancing around historic highs. Yet earnings estimates for the third quarter show little expectation that corporate earnings reports will prove to be much of anything—and this could create some opportunities for aggressive investors.</p><p><blockquote>市场表面上方和下方有许多逆流。标准普尔500指数正在历史高点附近起舞。然而，第三季度的盈利预测显示，人们对企业盈利报告将被证明有多大意义的预期很小，这可能为激进的投资者创造一些机会。</blockquote></p><p> John Marshall,Goldman Sachs’ derivatives strategist, recently advised clients that analyst estimates for the third quarter have been revised upward by 12% over the past three months but still remain 2% below the second-quarter’s level (not including the financial sector).</p><p><blockquote>高盛衍生品策略师约翰·马歇尔(John Marshall)最近向客户表示，过去三个月分析师对第三季度的预期已上调12%，但仍比第二季度的水平低2%（不包括金融部门）。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, single-stock skew—the difference between bearish put-option and bullish call-option implied volatility—is at the highest level in over a year.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，单股偏差（看跌看跌期权和看涨看涨期权期权隐含波动率之间的差异）处于一年多来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> The elevated skew suggests that investors have bought bearish puts to hedge earnings reports, thus creating conditions that could spark relief rallies in certain stocks on earnings day, and even in broad indexes, Marshall told clients. Investors are so pessimistic about corporate earnings—and have positioned that way in the options market—that any bit of good news could prompt strong moves in individual stocks.</p><p><blockquote>马歇尔告诉客户，偏高表明投资者购买了看跌看跌期权以对冲收益报告，从而创造了可能在收益日引发某些股票甚至广泛指数的缓解性反弹的条件。投资者对企业盈利如此悲观——并在期权市场上如此定位——以至于任何一点好消息都可能促使个股出现强劲走势。</blockquote></p><p> To trade these conditions, Marshall has assembled a list of stocks in which Goldman analysts are the most out of consensus with the Street view. On stocks that have the potential to beat earnings estimates, he has suggested that clients consider buying calls that expire in one month, with strike prices just above the current stock price.</p><p><blockquote>为了交易这些条件，马歇尔整理了一份高盛分析师与街景最不一致的股票名单。对于有可能超出盈利预期的股票，他建议客户考虑购买一个月后到期的评级，执行价格略高于当前股价。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s trading menu for stocks with potential upside to earnings estimates includes&nbsp;Starbucks&nbsp;(ticker: SBUX),Canadian Natural Resources&nbsp;(CNQ), YETI Holdings (YETI),Cenovus Energy&nbsp;(CVE), Carlyle Group (CG),Signature Bank&nbsp;(SBNY),Align Technology&nbsp;(ALGN),Maravai LifeSciences Holdings&nbsp;(MRVI),Fortune Brands Home &amp; Security&nbsp;(FBHS),Shoals Technologies Group&nbsp;(SHLS),CF Industries&nbsp;(CF),Okta&nbsp;(OKTA),Playtika Holding&nbsp;(PLTK), and&nbsp;Republic Services&nbsp;(RSG).</p><p><blockquote>高盛对盈利预期有潜在上行空间的股票的交易菜单包括星巴克（股票代码：SBUX）、加拿大自然资源公司（CNQ）、YETI Holdings（YETI）、Cenovus Energy（CVE）、凯雷投资集团（CG）、Signature Bank（SBNY）、Align Technology(ALGN)、Maravai LifeSciences Holdings(MRVI)、Fortune Brands Home&amp;Security(FBHS)、Shoals Technologies Group(SHLS)、CF Industries(CF)、Okta(OKTA)、Playtika Holding(PLTK)和Republic Services(RSG)。</blockquote></p><p> At a time when so many investors are confused about what to do, Goldman’s approach shows how a sophisticated strategist is thinking when change is in the air and investors are nervous about what comes next.</p><p><blockquote>在许多投资者对该做什么感到困惑之际，高盛的做法表明，当变革即将来临、投资者对接下来会发生什么感到紧张时，一位老练的策略师是如何思考的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season<blockquote>期权投资者应该如何应对本财报季</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season<blockquote>期权投资者应该如何应对本财报季</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-14 16:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analysts are generally worried about earnings growth, and the options market is a cauldron of coiled anxiety.</p><p><blockquote>在第三季度财报季伊始，可以说投资者感到紧张，分析师普遍担心盈利增长，期权市场是一个焦虑不安的大锅。</blockquote></p><p> The cause for this sour sentiment? Expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon raise interest rates, for a variety of reasons.</p><p><blockquote>这种酸楚情绪的原因是什么？出于多种原因，人们对美联储可能很快加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> The economy is beset by inflationary pressures. Supply chains are struggling to keep pace with consumer and corporate demand for everything from semiconductors to toilet paper. Economic growth, which ultimately drives corporate earnings, appears to be slowing, and that generally portends poorly for stock prices. The drama in Washington over raising the debt ceiling, and dueling legislative agendas, adds a circus-like air to the market.</p><p><blockquote>经济受到通货膨胀压力的困扰。供应链正在努力跟上消费者和企业对从半导体到卫生纸等各种产品的需求。最终推动企业盈利的经济增长似乎正在放缓，这通常对股价来说是个坏兆头。华盛顿围绕提高债务上限和立法议程的争论给市场增添了马戏团般的气氛。</blockquote></p><p> What is less discussed is that the rules of the game are changing. When the Fed finally raises interest rates, most investors will have to learn some new tricks.</p><p><blockquote>较少讨论的是，游戏规则正在发生变化。当美联储最终加息时，大多数投资者将不得不学习一些新技巧。</blockquote></p><p> After 20 years of easy-money policies, investors have come to rely on the mighty “Fed put”—the belief that the Fed will do whatever it takes to keep the stock market from falling too far. Now, it seems the Fed put&nbsp;might expire after this earnings season, and making money in the stock and options markets may no longer be so easy.</p><p><blockquote>经过20年的宽松货币政策，投资者开始依赖强大的“美联储看跌期权”——相信美联储将不惜一切代价阻止股市下跌太多。现在看来，美联储看跌期权可能会在本财报季后到期，在股票和期权市场赚钱可能不再那么容易。</blockquote></p><p> The good news? There are ways to monetize these unusual conditions during an event-heavy calendar.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是什么？在活动繁忙的日历中，有一些方法可以将这些不寻常的情况货币化。</blockquote></p><p> There are many crosscurrents moving above and below the market’s surface. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;is dancing around historic highs. Yet earnings estimates for the third quarter show little expectation that corporate earnings reports will prove to be much of anything—and this could create some opportunities for aggressive investors.</p><p><blockquote>市场表面上方和下方有许多逆流。标准普尔500指数正在历史高点附近起舞。然而，第三季度的盈利预测显示，人们对企业盈利报告将被证明有多大意义的预期很小，这可能为激进的投资者创造一些机会。</blockquote></p><p> John Marshall,Goldman Sachs’ derivatives strategist, recently advised clients that analyst estimates for the third quarter have been revised upward by 12% over the past three months but still remain 2% below the second-quarter’s level (not including the financial sector).</p><p><blockquote>高盛衍生品策略师约翰·马歇尔(John Marshall)最近向客户表示，过去三个月分析师对第三季度的预期已上调12%，但仍比第二季度的水平低2%（不包括金融部门）。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, single-stock skew—the difference between bearish put-option and bullish call-option implied volatility—is at the highest level in over a year.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，单股偏差（看跌看跌期权和看涨看涨期权期权隐含波动率之间的差异）处于一年多来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> The elevated skew suggests that investors have bought bearish puts to hedge earnings reports, thus creating conditions that could spark relief rallies in certain stocks on earnings day, and even in broad indexes, Marshall told clients. Investors are so pessimistic about corporate earnings—and have positioned that way in the options market—that any bit of good news could prompt strong moves in individual stocks.</p><p><blockquote>马歇尔告诉客户，偏高表明投资者购买了看跌看跌期权以对冲收益报告，从而创造了可能在收益日引发某些股票甚至广泛指数的缓解性反弹的条件。投资者对企业盈利如此悲观——并在期权市场上如此定位——以至于任何一点好消息都可能促使个股出现强劲走势。</blockquote></p><p> To trade these conditions, Marshall has assembled a list of stocks in which Goldman analysts are the most out of consensus with the Street view. On stocks that have the potential to beat earnings estimates, he has suggested that clients consider buying calls that expire in one month, with strike prices just above the current stock price.</p><p><blockquote>为了交易这些条件，马歇尔整理了一份高盛分析师与街景最不一致的股票名单。对于有可能超出盈利预期的股票，他建议客户考虑购买一个月后到期的评级，执行价格略高于当前股价。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s trading menu for stocks with potential upside to earnings estimates includes&nbsp;Starbucks&nbsp;(ticker: SBUX),Canadian Natural Resources&nbsp;(CNQ), YETI Holdings (YETI),Cenovus Energy&nbsp;(CVE), Carlyle Group (CG),Signature Bank&nbsp;(SBNY),Align Technology&nbsp;(ALGN),Maravai LifeSciences Holdings&nbsp;(MRVI),Fortune Brands Home &amp; Security&nbsp;(FBHS),Shoals Technologies Group&nbsp;(SHLS),CF Industries&nbsp;(CF),Okta&nbsp;(OKTA),Playtika Holding&nbsp;(PLTK), and&nbsp;Republic Services&nbsp;(RSG).</p><p><blockquote>高盛对盈利预期有潜在上行空间的股票的交易菜单包括星巴克（股票代码：SBUX）、加拿大自然资源公司（CNQ）、YETI Holdings（YETI）、Cenovus Energy（CVE）、凯雷投资集团（CG）、Signature Bank（SBNY）、Align Technology(ALGN)、Maravai LifeSciences Holdings(MRVI)、Fortune Brands Home&amp;Security(FBHS)、Shoals Technologies Group(SHLS)、CF Industries(CF)、Okta(OKTA)、Playtika Holding(PLTK)和Republic Services(RSG)。</blockquote></p><p> At a time when so many investors are confused about what to do, Goldman’s approach shows how a sophisticated strategist is thinking when change is in the air and investors are nervous about what comes next.</p><p><blockquote>在许多投资者对该做什么感到困惑之际，高盛的做法表明，当变革即将来临、投资者对接下来会发生什么感到紧张时，一位老练的策略师是如何思考的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-options-investors-should-play-this-earnings-season-51634196601?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHLS":"Shoals Technologies Group",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","CF":"CF工业","RSG":"共和废品处理","ALGN":"艾利科技","MRVI":"Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","OKTA":"Okta Inc.","SBUX":"星巴克","CNQ":"加国自然资源","CVE":"Cenovus能源","YETI":"YETI Holdings Inc.","SBNY":"签字银行","CG":"凯雷","PLTK":"Playtika Holding Corp.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-options-investors-should-play-this-earnings-season-51634196601?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161146997","content_text":"At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analysts are generally worried about earnings growth, and the options market is a cauldron of coiled anxiety.\nThe cause for this sour sentiment? Expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon raise interest rates, for a variety of reasons.\nThe economy is beset by inflationary pressures. Supply chains are struggling to keep pace with consumer and corporate demand for everything from semiconductors to toilet paper. Economic growth, which ultimately drives corporate earnings, appears to be slowing, and that generally portends poorly for stock prices. The drama in Washington over raising the debt ceiling, and dueling legislative agendas, adds a circus-like air to the market.\nWhat is less discussed is that the rules of the game are changing. When the Fed finally raises interest rates, most investors will have to learn some new tricks.\nAfter 20 years of easy-money policies, investors have come to rely on the mighty “Fed put”—the belief that the Fed will do whatever it takes to keep the stock market from falling too far. Now, it seems the Fed put might expire after this earnings season, and making money in the stock and options markets may no longer be so easy.\nThe good news? There are ways to monetize these unusual conditions during an event-heavy calendar.\nThere are many crosscurrents moving above and below the market’s surface. The S&P 500 index is dancing around historic highs. Yet earnings estimates for the third quarter show little expectation that corporate earnings reports will prove to be much of anything—and this could create some opportunities for aggressive investors.\nJohn Marshall,Goldman Sachs’ derivatives strategist, recently advised clients that analyst estimates for the third quarter have been revised upward by 12% over the past three months but still remain 2% below the second-quarter’s level (not including the financial sector).\nMeanwhile, single-stock skew—the difference between bearish put-option and bullish call-option implied volatility—is at the highest level in over a year.\nThe elevated skew suggests that investors have bought bearish puts to hedge earnings reports, thus creating conditions that could spark relief rallies in certain stocks on earnings day, and even in broad indexes, Marshall told clients. Investors are so pessimistic about corporate earnings—and have positioned that way in the options market—that any bit of good news could prompt strong moves in individual stocks.\nTo trade these conditions, Marshall has assembled a list of stocks in which Goldman analysts are the most out of consensus with the Street view. On stocks that have the potential to beat earnings estimates, he has suggested that clients consider buying calls that expire in one month, with strike prices just above the current stock price.\nGoldman’s trading menu for stocks with potential upside to earnings estimates includes Starbucks (ticker: SBUX),Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), YETI Holdings (YETI),Cenovus Energy (CVE), Carlyle Group (CG),Signature Bank (SBNY),Align Technology (ALGN),Maravai LifeSciences Holdings (MRVI),Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS),Shoals Technologies Group (SHLS),CF Industries (CF),Okta (OKTA),Playtika Holding (PLTK), and Republic Services (RSG).\nAt a time when so many investors are confused about what to do, Goldman’s approach shows how a sophisticated strategist is thinking when change is in the air and investors are nervous about what comes next.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CNQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"YETI":0.9,"SHLS":0.9,"SBUX":0.9,"SBNY":0.9,"CG":0.9,"FBHS":0.9,"PLTK":0.9,"RSG":0.9,"ALGN":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"OKTA":0.9,"MRVI":0.9,"CVE":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"CF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2011,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820305904,"gmtCreate":1633349666829,"gmtModify":1633351599098,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"IMO&nbsp;Index or theme ETF (e g. ESG)&nbsp;is more stable rather than sector ETF ..... for long term. Commission &amp;&nbsp;Tax will eat into profit for short term&nbsp;as well.","listText":"IMO&nbsp;Index or theme ETF (e g. ESG)&nbsp;is more stable rather than sector ETF ..... for long term. Commission &amp;&nbsp;Tax will eat into profit for short term&nbsp;as well.","text":"IMO Index or theme ETF (e g. ESG) is more stable rather than sector ETF ..... for long term. Commission & Tax will eat into profit for short term as well.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820305904","repostId":"1145081858","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862916578,"gmtCreate":1632828366218,"gmtModify":1632828366543,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"20% will be good for those with cash to buy the dip and DCA down. Wish it come through","listText":"20% will be good for those with cash to buy the dip and DCA down. Wish it come through","text":"20% will be good for those with cash to buy the dip and DCA down. Wish it come through","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862916578","repostId":"1166571782","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166571782","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632787589,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166571782?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 08:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Dismisses Market's \"Strong Rebound\", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment<blockquote>摩根士丹利否认市场“强劲反弹”，对即将到来的盈利令人失望仍持悲观态度</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166571782","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumb","content":"<p>For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumbling on Evergrande default fears, Wilson emerged from his faux-bull cocoon (havingraised his year-end S&amp;P price target from 3,900 to 4,000 in Augustin a note that reeked of disgust with what he was being told to do) and warned that an \"Ice is coming\", referring to a 20% drop in stocks as opposed to the more modest 10% correction envisioned in his \"fire\" scenario, saying that \"<b>the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction</b>\", a drop he expects will take place some time this fall.</p><p><blockquote>上周一的短短几个小时内，摩根士丹利首席经济学家感到自己被证明是正确的：随着股市因恒大违约担忧而暴跌，威尔逊从他的假牛市茧中走了出来（在奥古斯丁将年终标准普尔目标价从3,900点上调至4,000点）对他被告知要做的事情感到厌恶）并警告说“冰即将到来”，指的是股市将下跌20%，而不是他在“火灾”情景中设想的更温和的10%调整，他说“<b>“冰”情景开始看起来更有可能，并可能导致更具破坏性的结果——即20%以上的修正</b>”，他预计今年秋天的某个时候会出现下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87b7fac22f1a1f5db68fec641fc7528\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wilson also predicted that with earnings growth and PMIs set to drop, it would adversely impact forward PE multiples and by extension the S&amp;P.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊还预测，随着盈利增长和采购经理人指数下降，这将对远期市盈率以及标准普尔指数产生不利影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45afcf0068538b4f56bc85f42af9e52f\" tg-width=\"1233\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Well, what a difference 7 days makes: with Evergrande default fears now long forgotten with little to no offshore contagion,&nbsp;the S&amp;P is almost 150 points from its \"Evergrande Monday\" lows and once again pushing back toward all time highs (even if with a major rotation in the leadership as tech stocks are now sliding, having been replaced by value, cyclical and reopening names) in the process yet again foiling Wilson's bearish visions.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，7天的变化是多么大：随着恒大违约的担忧现在早已被遗忘，几乎没有离岸蔓延，标准普尔指数距离“恒大周一”低点近150点，并再次推回到历史高点（即使随着科技股目前下滑，已被价值股、周期性股和重新开放股所取代，领导层发生了重大轮换），这再次挫败了威尔逊的看跌愿景。</blockquote></p><p> So has the market's sharp post-opex bounce changed the mind of the chief strategist that this seemingly invincible market will never go down again more than just a token 5% move?</p><p><blockquote>那么，运营支出后市场的大幅反弹是否改变了首席策略师的想法，即这个看似不可战胜的市场永远不会再次下跌，而不仅仅是象征性的5%波动？</blockquote></p><p> Today we got the answer in Wilson's latest weekly warm-up not, in which he makes it clear that his bearish outlook remains, and as he explains, \"our process tells us the risk-reward remains unattractive at the index level given slowing growth and rising rates. Meanwhile, price action can be interpreted bullishly or bearishly.&nbsp;<b>With 3Q earnings season likely to bring a much more muted outcome, we remain defensive in our positioning.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们在威尔逊最新的每周热身中得到了答案，他在其中明确表示，他的看跌前景仍然存在，正如他解释的那样，“我们的流程告诉我们，鉴于增长放缓和利率上升，风险回报在指数水平上仍然没有吸引力。与此同时，价格走势可以被解读为看涨或看跌。<b>由于第三季度财报季可能会带来更加温和的结果，我们的定位仍然是防御性的。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p> We'll get to why in a second, but first Wilson - realizing that he would get a criticism for what many viewed as a premature victory lap - spends the first few paragraphs of his latest note going over the details of his analytical process. This is how he lays it out:</p><p><blockquote>我们稍后会解释原因，但首先威尔逊意识到他会因为许多人认为他过早获胜而受到批评，他在最新笔记的前几段回顾了他的分析过程的细节。他是这样布局的：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Our equity strategy process has several key components. Most importantly, we focus on the fundamentals of growth and valuation to determine whether the overall market is attractive and which sectors and stocks look the best/worst.</b>The rate of change on growth is more important than the absolute level, and we use a market-based equity risk premium framework that works well as long as you apply the correct regime when using it. In that regard, we’re an avid student of market cycles and believe historical analogs can be helpful. For example, the mid cycle transition narrative that has worked so well this year is derived directly from our study of historical economic and market cycles.    <b>The final component we spend a lot of time on is price.</b>While most would call this technical analysis, we’d like to think we do it a little bit differently. Markets aren’t always efficient, but we believe they are often very good leading indicators for the fundamentals—the ultimate driver of value. This is especially true if one looks at the internal movements and relative strength of individual securities. In short,   <b>we find these internals to be much more helpful than simply looking at the major averages.</b>    <b>This year, we think the process has lived up to its promise quite well with the price action lining up nicely with the fundamental backdrop.</b>In short, the large cap quality leadership since March is signaling what we believe is about to happen—i.e., decelerating growth and tightening financial conditions. The question for investors is whether the price action has fully discounted those outcomes.  With that disclosure in hand, and with the clear understanding that at least in his view investors are not discounting any adverse outcomes at this point, Wilson proceeds to discuss the recent market action, noting that stocks<b>\"sold off hard last Monday on concerns about the Evergrande bankruptcy\"</b>and while he adds that it is the Morgan Stanley \"house view\" that it likely won’t lead to a major financial contagion, \"it will probably weigh on China growth for the next few quarters which means that the growth deceleration we are expecting could be a bit worse.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>我们的股票策略流程有几个关键组成部分。最重要的是，我们关注增长和估值的基本面，以确定整体市场是否有吸引力，以及哪些板块和股票看起来最好/最差。</b>增长的变化率比绝对水平更重要，我们使用基于市场的股票风险溢价框架，只要您在使用时应用正确的制度，该框架就能很好地发挥作用。在这方面，我们是市场周期的热心学生，并相信历史类比会有所帮助。例如，今年表现良好的中期周期转型叙事直接来自我们对历史经济和市场周期的研究。<b>我们花费大量时间的最后一个因素是价格。</b>虽然大多数人会看涨期权这种技术分析，但我们认为我们做得有点不同。市场并不总是有效的，但我们相信它们通常是基本面（价值的最终驱动力）的非常好的领先指标。如果观察个别证券的内部走势和相对强度，情况尤其如此。总之，<b>我们发现这些内部因素比简单地查看主要平均值更有帮助。</b><b>今年，我们认为这一过程很好地兑现了其承诺，价格走势与基本面背景很好地一致。</b>简而言之，自3月份以来大盘股质量的领先地位发出了我们认为即将发生的事情的信号，即增长减速和金融状况收紧。投资者面临的问题是，价格走势是否完全低估了这些结果。有了这一披露，并清楚地认识到，至少在他看来，投资者目前并没有低估任何不利结果，威尔逊继续讨论最近的市场走势，指出股票<b>“上周一因担心恒大破产而遭到大量抛售”</b>虽然他补充说，摩根士丹利的“内部观点”是，这可能不会导致重大的金融危机蔓延，但“这可能会给中国未来几个季度的经济增长带来压力，这意味着我们预计的经济增长减速可能会更糟一点。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The other reason Wilson suggests was behind the market weakness early last week \"likely had to do with concern about the Fed articulating its plans to taper asset purchases later this year and perhaps even move up the timing of rate hikes to next year. On that score, the Fed did not disappoint as they pretty much told us to expect the taper to begin in December.<b>The surprise was the speed in which they expect to be done tapering—by mid 2022.</b>This is about a quarter sooner than the market had been anticipating and does move up the odds for a rate hike in 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊表示，上周初市场疲软背后的另一个原因“可能与担心美联储阐明其在今年晚些时候缩减资产购买计划，甚至可能将加息时间提前到明年有关。在这一点上，美联储并没有让人失望，因为他们几乎告诉我们预计缩减将在12月开始。<b>令人惊讶的是他们预计到2022年中期完成缩减的速度。</b>这比市场预期提前了约四分之一，确实增加了2022年加息的可能性。”</blockquote></p><p> Curiously last week's rally happened in the aftermath of the market's perplexing kneejerk response to the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when stocks rallied even as bonds sold off sharply, particularly at the back end. Real 10-year yields were up 11bps in 2 days and are now up 31bps in just 8 weeks (Exhibit 1). That according to Wilson is \"tightening of financial conditions for sure\" and should weigh on PEs overall but it also has big implications for what should work at the sector/style level (Exhibit 2).</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，上周的反弹发生在市场对周三美联储会议做出令人困惑的下意识反应之后，当时尽管债券大幅抛售，尤其是在后端，股市仍上涨。实际10年期国债收益率在两天内上涨了11个基点，现在在短短8周内上涨了31个基点（图表1）。根据威尔逊的说法，这是“金融状况肯定会收紧”，应该会对整体市盈率造成压力，但它也对行业/风格层面的工作产生重大影响（图表2）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f0bb937e8d564694c06b7e1362bd81\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In short, Wilson digs in and claims that higher real rates should mean lower P/Es overall which likely means lower S&amp;P 500, thus validating his bearish view which still sees the S&amp;P dropping some 20% from its current perch to hit 4,000 by year end. However, he concedes, \"it may also mean value over growth and small caps over Nasdaq even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，Wilson深入研究并声称，较高的实际利率应该意味着较低的整体市盈率，这可能意味着较低的标普500，从而验证了他的看跌观点，即标准普尔指数仍将从目前的水平下跌约20%，到年底触及4,000点。然而，他承认，“这也可能意味着价值超过增长，小盘股超过纳斯达克，即使整体股市走低。”</blockquote></p><p> Which brings us to the key question we spent quite some time discussing last week, namely<b>why did stocks rally so much into the end of the week</b>on what Wilson says are odds that growth will decelerate more than expected from Evergrande and financial conditions may tighten faster?</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了我们上星期花了相当长时间讨论的关键问题，即<b>为什么股市在本周末大幅上涨</b>威尔逊认为恒大经济增长放缓幅度超过预期且财务状况可能更快收紧的可能性有多大？</blockquote></p><p> Here Wilson is at least honest - as he puts it - and says \"we’re not sure but we think this may be a time when the markets are playing tricks on investors and even setting a bit of a trap.\" Actually it's simpler than that and has to do with thegamma reversal and technical flows we pointed out last week, but one has to be a \"greek geek\" - like Nomura's Charlie McElligott - to get that.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，威尔逊至少是诚实的——正如他所说——并表示“我们不确定，但我们认为这可能是市场在捉弄投资者，甚至设置一点陷阱的时候。”实际上，这比这更简单，与我们上周指出的伽马反转和技术流有关，但必须是“希腊极客”——比如野村证券的查理·麦克埃利戈特——才能理解这一点。</blockquote></p><p> The other explanation proposed by Wilson is \"that investors were somewhat positioned for bad news going into the Fed meeting and the actual event simply served as a relief that it didn’t lead lower prices. This price action drove many investors to chase on Thursday for fear of missing out.<b>In short, don’t underestimate the power of price to determine how investors interpret the facts.</b>Just like negative price action can get people to sell the lows, positive price action can force people to buy\", he concludes.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊提出的另一种解释是，“投资者在某种程度上对美联储会议的坏消息做好了准备，而实际事件只是让人松了一口气，因为它没有导致价格下跌。这种价格走势促使许多投资者在周四追逐，因为害怕错过。<b>简而言之，不要低估价格决定投资者如何解读事实的力量。</b>就像负面的价格行为可以让人们在低点卖出一样，积极的价格行为可以迫使人们买入”，他总结道。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever the reason for the initial bounce, it quickly accelerated and there was \"a lot of excitement last Thursday when stocks rallied sharply back above the 50 day moving average, a key barometer for many and a key level of support throughout this year for the S&amp;P 500.\" That this happened when the 50DMA was broken \"on near record levels of volume in both the cash and derivatives markets\" only punctuated the strength of the rebound. By Friday, that moving average had been reclaimed and closed above it for the week, an important technical win as even Wilson admits. However, he then adds, from his vantage point, \"the very well defined uptrend that has been established over the past year was broken and not reclaimed. Instead, it looks like the rally from Wednesday to Friday was simply \"filling the gap\" created from Monday's break.\"</p><p><blockquote>无论最初反弹的原因是什么，它很快就加速了，“上周四，当股市大幅反弹回到50日移动平均线上方时，人们非常兴奋，这是许多人的关键晴雨表，也是今年标普500的关键支撑位。”这种情况发生在“现金和衍生品市场成交量接近创纪录水平”的50日均线被突破时，这只会加剧反弹的强度。到周五，该移动平均线已被收复，并在本周收于该移动平均线之上，就连威尔逊也承认，这是一次重要的技术胜利。然而，他随后补充道，从他的角度来看，“过去一年建立的非常明确的上升趋势被打破了，没有恢复。相反，看起来周三至周五的反弹只是‘填补了缺口’。”周一休息。”</blockquote></p><p> His conclusion on upcoming market action will hardly come as a surprise to those who have followed Wilson's progressive pessimism across 2021: pointing to the market's inability to recover its prior trendline, he says \"this leaves the technical picture very uncertain in our view and one can now break either way. With our fundamental view skewing poorly at the moment, we lean to the bearish outcome.\"</p><p><blockquote>对于那些关注威尔逊在2021年逐步悲观情绪的人来说，他关于即将到来的市场行动的结论并不令人惊讶：他指出市场无法恢复之前的趋势线，他表示，“这使得我们认为技术面非常不确定，现在可以打破任何一种方式。由于我们的基本面观点目前不佳，我们倾向于看跌结果。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fc56e35f140c96104f8d8aa0826fd3\" tg-width=\"1100\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Getting back to his process, Wilson then says that he has high conviction that \"earnings growth is likely to decelerate more than what the current consensus is forecasting.\" Furthermore, he thinks the market is starting to agree with that view and points to market breadth as a good leading indicator for earnings revision breadth where he says \"direction is clear\" and pointing to the newly shrinking market breadth, he reminds readers that earnings revision breadth is a good leading indicator for the overall market.</p><p><blockquote>回到他的过程，威尔逊随后表示，他坚信“盈利增长的减速可能会超过当前共识的预测。”此外，他认为市场开始同意这一观点，并指出市场广度是盈利修正广度的良好领先指标，他说“方向很明确”，并指出新萎缩的市场广度，他提醒读者，盈利修正广度是整体市场的良好领先指标。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It will therefore hardly come as a surprise that with Wilson still clearly bearish, his advice to clients is \"<b>don’t get too caught up in last week’s strong rebound from Monday’s sharp sell off\"</b>which he views as a clean break of the uptrend and a filling of the gap created from Monday's crack. And with the technical picture murky, \"<b>that's a time to trust the fundamental and cycle analyses which suggest lower equity prices ahead\"</b>and as growth decelerates and financial conditions tighten, valuations are likely to fall from their lofty levels.</p><p><blockquote>因此，由于威尔逊仍然明显看跌，他给客户的建议是“<b>不要太沉迷于上周从周一大幅抛售中的强劲反弹”</b>他认为这是对上升趋势的彻底突破，并填补了周一缺口造成的缺口。由于技术情况不明朗，”<b>现在是相信基本面和周期分析的时候了，这些分析表明未来股价会下跌。”</b>随着增长放缓和金融状况收紧，估值可能会从高位回落。</blockquote></p><p> * * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p> With all that in mind, Wilson goes back to his core fundamental thesis which is simple: after a blockbuster Q2 season, earnings are set to drop substantially as a result of the margin compression we discussed most recently over the weekend, to wit:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，威尔逊回到了他的核心基本论点，这个论点很简单：在经历了轰动一时的第二季度之后，由于我们最近在周末讨论的利润率压缩，盈利将大幅下降，即：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Since the second quarter of 2020 earnings results have come in much higher than consensus forecasts</b>. Earnings beats ranged from 14% - 22% over this period while the median beat rate since 2008 is only 5%...We do not think companies will continue to beat at such an unprecedented rate and believe 3Q could see a material change in the more recent trend as supply chain issues and labor shortages pose a risk to both top line and margins.  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e643723cfa540ad52a1dcebcba24f3\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><b>自2020年第二季度以来，盈利结果远高于市场普遍预期</b>在此期间，盈利超出预期范围为14%-22%，而自2008年以来的中位超出预期率仅为5%……我们认为公司不会继续以如此前所未有的速度超出预期，并相信第三季度可能会出现重大变化随着供应链问题和劳动力短缺对营收和利润率构成风险，最近的趋势。</blockquote></p><p>   We looked at how 3Q earnings estimate revisions have trended at the industry group and sector level. Significant cuts have occurred in insurance, capital goods and transportation.   <b>Consumer Durables is the only area that has seen significant positive revisions at the industry group level. 3Q S&amp;P 500 estimates have fallen by 77 bps over past 4 weeks. We expect more downside.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5496394c7a42ab136f68ba74c64cf83\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6beae58fd458a45024d160d45b4684\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>我们研究了行业组和行业层面第三季度盈利预测修正的趋势。保险、资本货物和运输都出现了大幅削减。<b>耐用消费品是行业集团层面唯一出现重大积极修正的领域。过去4周，第三季度标普500预期下降了77个基点。我们预计会有更多的下行空间。</b></blockquote></p><p> No surprises there, as the margin compression story is a familiar one (\"Margins Crushed As Producer Prices Explode At Record Pace In July\"). To Wilson, however, this is the story and one which the market refuses to even consider:</p><p><blockquote>这并不奇怪，因为利润率压缩的故事是一个熟悉的故事（“随着7月份生产者价格以创纪录的速度爆炸，利润率被压垮”）。然而，对威尔逊来说，这是一个市场甚至拒绝考虑的故事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>2022 consensus margin estimates are historically lofty...</b>we examine the risks to margins in coming quarters through two different top down approaches. The spread between GDP growth and wage growth correlates fairly closely with operating margins over time. Based on our economists' estimates<b>, this spread should decelerate in coming quarters, which suggests margins should contract, not expand as bottom-up consensus expects</b>.</p><p><blockquote><b>2022年共识利润率预期处于历史高位……</b>我们通过两种不同的自上而下的方法来研究未来几个季度的利润率风险。随着时间的推移，GDP增长和工资增长之间的利差与营业利润率密切相关。基于我们经济学家的估计<b>这种利差应该会在未来几个季度减速，这表明利润率应该收缩，而不是像自下而上的共识预期的那样扩大</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e80ec048b5856ebf2159d1d9d0151334\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Further, corporate transcript mentions of \"cost pressures\" and related terms are historically elevated. When this has happened in the past, margins have consolidated.</p><p><blockquote>此外，公司记录中提及“成本压力”和相关术语的数量历来较高。当这种情况在过去发生时，利润率已经巩固。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c8fcfa4bb23d953d8c2079bc1a0ec5\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson's final bearish point is that companies are reaching the limit on how much of rising input costs they can pass on to consumers. As he puts it, while \"many investors that we speak to are optimistic about corporates' ability to pass on cost through pricing and protect margins\" he would caution that \"prices in several consumer end markets are already at a level that is inhibiting demand. We think the risk of this dynamic (high prices leading to demand destruction) spreading to other areas of consumer demand is especially elevated because goods consumption is already so far above trend—<b>in other words, high prices are that much more of a deterrent given households have already overconsumed in many areas.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>威尔逊的最后一个看跌观点是，企业将投入成本上升转嫁给消费者的程度已经达到了极限。正如他所说，虽然“我们采访的许多投资者对企业通过定价转嫁成本和保护利润的能力持乐观态度”，但他警告说，“几个消费终端市场的价格已经处于抑制需求的水平。我们认为这种动态（高价格导致需求破坏）蔓延到消费者需求其他领域的风险尤其高，因为商品消费已经远远高于趋势——<b>换句话说，鉴于许多地区的家庭已经过度消费，高物价更具威慑力。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216bbe5eae73445b35a9152e741dccef\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Translation: absent another multi-trillion stimmy - and thanks to the chaos in the democratic party we know one is unlikely to come - Wilson's call for a 20% drop in stocks in the next few months remains intact.</p><p><blockquote>翻译：如果没有另一个数万亿美元的刺激——由于民主党的混乱，我们知道不太可能出现——威尔逊未来几个月股市下跌20%的看涨期权仍然完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Dismisses Market's \"Strong Rebound\", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment<blockquote>摩根士丹利否认市场“强劲反弹”，对即将到来的盈利令人失望仍持悲观态度</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-28 08:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumbling on Evergrande default fears, Wilson emerged from his faux-bull cocoon (havingraised his year-end S&amp;P price target from 3,900 to 4,000 in Augustin a note that reeked of disgust with what he was being told to do) and warned that an \"Ice is coming\", referring to a 20% drop in stocks as opposed to the more modest 10% correction envisioned in his \"fire\" scenario, saying that \"<b>the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction</b>\", a drop he expects will take place some time this fall.</p><p><blockquote>上周一的短短几个小时内，摩根士丹利首席经济学家感到自己被证明是正确的：随着股市因恒大违约担忧而暴跌，威尔逊从他的假牛市茧中走了出来（在奥古斯丁将年终标准普尔目标价从3,900点上调至4,000点）对他被告知要做的事情感到厌恶）并警告说“冰即将到来”，指的是股市将下跌20%，而不是他在“火灾”情景中设想的更温和的10%调整，他说“<b>“冰”情景开始看起来更有可能，并可能导致更具破坏性的结果——即20%以上的修正</b>”，他预计今年秋天的某个时候会出现下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87b7fac22f1a1f5db68fec641fc7528\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wilson also predicted that with earnings growth and PMIs set to drop, it would adversely impact forward PE multiples and by extension the S&amp;P.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊还预测，随着盈利增长和采购经理人指数下降，这将对远期市盈率以及标准普尔指数产生不利影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45afcf0068538b4f56bc85f42af9e52f\" tg-width=\"1233\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Well, what a difference 7 days makes: with Evergrande default fears now long forgotten with little to no offshore contagion,&nbsp;the S&amp;P is almost 150 points from its \"Evergrande Monday\" lows and once again pushing back toward all time highs (even if with a major rotation in the leadership as tech stocks are now sliding, having been replaced by value, cyclical and reopening names) in the process yet again foiling Wilson's bearish visions.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，7天的变化是多么大：随着恒大违约的担忧现在早已被遗忘，几乎没有离岸蔓延，标准普尔指数距离“恒大周一”低点近150点，并再次推回到历史高点（即使随着科技股目前下滑，已被价值股、周期性股和重新开放股所取代，领导层发生了重大轮换），这再次挫败了威尔逊的看跌愿景。</blockquote></p><p> So has the market's sharp post-opex bounce changed the mind of the chief strategist that this seemingly invincible market will never go down again more than just a token 5% move?</p><p><blockquote>那么，运营支出后市场的大幅反弹是否改变了首席策略师的想法，即这个看似不可战胜的市场永远不会再次下跌，而不仅仅是象征性的5%波动？</blockquote></p><p> Today we got the answer in Wilson's latest weekly warm-up not, in which he makes it clear that his bearish outlook remains, and as he explains, \"our process tells us the risk-reward remains unattractive at the index level given slowing growth and rising rates. Meanwhile, price action can be interpreted bullishly or bearishly.&nbsp;<b>With 3Q earnings season likely to bring a much more muted outcome, we remain defensive in our positioning.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们在威尔逊最新的每周热身中得到了答案，他在其中明确表示，他的看跌前景仍然存在，正如他解释的那样，“我们的流程告诉我们，鉴于增长放缓和利率上升，风险回报在指数水平上仍然没有吸引力。与此同时，价格走势可以被解读为看涨或看跌。<b>由于第三季度财报季可能会带来更加温和的结果，我们的定位仍然是防御性的。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p> We'll get to why in a second, but first Wilson - realizing that he would get a criticism for what many viewed as a premature victory lap - spends the first few paragraphs of his latest note going over the details of his analytical process. This is how he lays it out:</p><p><blockquote>我们稍后会解释原因，但首先威尔逊意识到他会因为许多人认为他过早获胜而受到批评，他在最新笔记的前几段回顾了他的分析过程的细节。他是这样布局的：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Our equity strategy process has several key components. Most importantly, we focus on the fundamentals of growth and valuation to determine whether the overall market is attractive and which sectors and stocks look the best/worst.</b>The rate of change on growth is more important than the absolute level, and we use a market-based equity risk premium framework that works well as long as you apply the correct regime when using it. In that regard, we’re an avid student of market cycles and believe historical analogs can be helpful. For example, the mid cycle transition narrative that has worked so well this year is derived directly from our study of historical economic and market cycles.    <b>The final component we spend a lot of time on is price.</b>While most would call this technical analysis, we’d like to think we do it a little bit differently. Markets aren’t always efficient, but we believe they are often very good leading indicators for the fundamentals—the ultimate driver of value. This is especially true if one looks at the internal movements and relative strength of individual securities. In short,   <b>we find these internals to be much more helpful than simply looking at the major averages.</b>    <b>This year, we think the process has lived up to its promise quite well with the price action lining up nicely with the fundamental backdrop.</b>In short, the large cap quality leadership since March is signaling what we believe is about to happen—i.e., decelerating growth and tightening financial conditions. The question for investors is whether the price action has fully discounted those outcomes.  With that disclosure in hand, and with the clear understanding that at least in his view investors are not discounting any adverse outcomes at this point, Wilson proceeds to discuss the recent market action, noting that stocks<b>\"sold off hard last Monday on concerns about the Evergrande bankruptcy\"</b>and while he adds that it is the Morgan Stanley \"house view\" that it likely won’t lead to a major financial contagion, \"it will probably weigh on China growth for the next few quarters which means that the growth deceleration we are expecting could be a bit worse.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>我们的股票策略流程有几个关键组成部分。最重要的是，我们关注增长和估值的基本面，以确定整体市场是否有吸引力，以及哪些板块和股票看起来最好/最差。</b>增长的变化率比绝对水平更重要，我们使用基于市场的股票风险溢价框架，只要您在使用时应用正确的制度，该框架就能很好地发挥作用。在这方面，我们是市场周期的热心学生，并相信历史类比会有所帮助。例如，今年表现良好的中期周期转型叙事直接来自我们对历史经济和市场周期的研究。<b>我们花费大量时间的最后一个因素是价格。</b>虽然大多数人会看涨期权这种技术分析，但我们认为我们做得有点不同。市场并不总是有效的，但我们相信它们通常是基本面（价值的最终驱动力）的非常好的领先指标。如果观察个别证券的内部走势和相对强度，情况尤其如此。总之，<b>我们发现这些内部因素比简单地查看主要平均值更有帮助。</b><b>今年，我们认为这一过程很好地兑现了其承诺，价格走势与基本面背景很好地一致。</b>简而言之，自3月份以来大盘股质量的领先地位发出了我们认为即将发生的事情的信号，即增长减速和金融状况收紧。投资者面临的问题是，价格走势是否完全低估了这些结果。有了这一披露，并清楚地认识到，至少在他看来，投资者目前并没有低估任何不利结果，威尔逊继续讨论最近的市场走势，指出股票<b>“上周一因担心恒大破产而遭到大量抛售”</b>虽然他补充说，摩根士丹利的“内部观点”是，这可能不会导致重大的金融危机蔓延，但“这可能会给中国未来几个季度的经济增长带来压力，这意味着我们预计的经济增长减速可能会更糟一点。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The other reason Wilson suggests was behind the market weakness early last week \"likely had to do with concern about the Fed articulating its plans to taper asset purchases later this year and perhaps even move up the timing of rate hikes to next year. On that score, the Fed did not disappoint as they pretty much told us to expect the taper to begin in December.<b>The surprise was the speed in which they expect to be done tapering—by mid 2022.</b>This is about a quarter sooner than the market had been anticipating and does move up the odds for a rate hike in 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊表示，上周初市场疲软背后的另一个原因“可能与担心美联储阐明其在今年晚些时候缩减资产购买计划，甚至可能将加息时间提前到明年有关。在这一点上，美联储并没有让人失望，因为他们几乎告诉我们预计缩减将在12月开始。<b>令人惊讶的是他们预计到2022年中期完成缩减的速度。</b>这比市场预期提前了约四分之一，确实增加了2022年加息的可能性。”</blockquote></p><p> Curiously last week's rally happened in the aftermath of the market's perplexing kneejerk response to the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when stocks rallied even as bonds sold off sharply, particularly at the back end. Real 10-year yields were up 11bps in 2 days and are now up 31bps in just 8 weeks (Exhibit 1). That according to Wilson is \"tightening of financial conditions for sure\" and should weigh on PEs overall but it also has big implications for what should work at the sector/style level (Exhibit 2).</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，上周的反弹发生在市场对周三美联储会议做出令人困惑的下意识反应之后，当时尽管债券大幅抛售，尤其是在后端，股市仍上涨。实际10年期国债收益率在两天内上涨了11个基点，现在在短短8周内上涨了31个基点（图表1）。根据威尔逊的说法，这是“金融状况肯定会收紧”，应该会对整体市盈率造成压力，但它也对行业/风格层面的工作产生重大影响（图表2）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f0bb937e8d564694c06b7e1362bd81\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In short, Wilson digs in and claims that higher real rates should mean lower P/Es overall which likely means lower S&amp;P 500, thus validating his bearish view which still sees the S&amp;P dropping some 20% from its current perch to hit 4,000 by year end. However, he concedes, \"it may also mean value over growth and small caps over Nasdaq even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，Wilson深入研究并声称，较高的实际利率应该意味着较低的整体市盈率，这可能意味着较低的标普500，从而验证了他的看跌观点，即标准普尔指数仍将从目前的水平下跌约20%，到年底触及4,000点。然而，他承认，“这也可能意味着价值超过增长，小盘股超过纳斯达克，即使整体股市走低。”</blockquote></p><p> Which brings us to the key question we spent quite some time discussing last week, namely<b>why did stocks rally so much into the end of the week</b>on what Wilson says are odds that growth will decelerate more than expected from Evergrande and financial conditions may tighten faster?</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了我们上星期花了相当长时间讨论的关键问题，即<b>为什么股市在本周末大幅上涨</b>威尔逊认为恒大经济增长放缓幅度超过预期且财务状况可能更快收紧的可能性有多大？</blockquote></p><p> Here Wilson is at least honest - as he puts it - and says \"we’re not sure but we think this may be a time when the markets are playing tricks on investors and even setting a bit of a trap.\" Actually it's simpler than that and has to do with thegamma reversal and technical flows we pointed out last week, but one has to be a \"greek geek\" - like Nomura's Charlie McElligott - to get that.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，威尔逊至少是诚实的——正如他所说——并表示“我们不确定，但我们认为这可能是市场在捉弄投资者，甚至设置一点陷阱的时候。”实际上，这比这更简单，与我们上周指出的伽马反转和技术流有关，但必须是“希腊极客”——比如野村证券的查理·麦克埃利戈特——才能理解这一点。</blockquote></p><p> The other explanation proposed by Wilson is \"that investors were somewhat positioned for bad news going into the Fed meeting and the actual event simply served as a relief that it didn’t lead lower prices. This price action drove many investors to chase on Thursday for fear of missing out.<b>In short, don’t underestimate the power of price to determine how investors interpret the facts.</b>Just like negative price action can get people to sell the lows, positive price action can force people to buy\", he concludes.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊提出的另一种解释是，“投资者在某种程度上对美联储会议的坏消息做好了准备，而实际事件只是让人松了一口气，因为它没有导致价格下跌。这种价格走势促使许多投资者在周四追逐，因为害怕错过。<b>简而言之，不要低估价格决定投资者如何解读事实的力量。</b>就像负面的价格行为可以让人们在低点卖出一样，积极的价格行为可以迫使人们买入”，他总结道。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever the reason for the initial bounce, it quickly accelerated and there was \"a lot of excitement last Thursday when stocks rallied sharply back above the 50 day moving average, a key barometer for many and a key level of support throughout this year for the S&amp;P 500.\" That this happened when the 50DMA was broken \"on near record levels of volume in both the cash and derivatives markets\" only punctuated the strength of the rebound. By Friday, that moving average had been reclaimed and closed above it for the week, an important technical win as even Wilson admits. However, he then adds, from his vantage point, \"the very well defined uptrend that has been established over the past year was broken and not reclaimed. Instead, it looks like the rally from Wednesday to Friday was simply \"filling the gap\" created from Monday's break.\"</p><p><blockquote>无论最初反弹的原因是什么，它很快就加速了，“上周四，当股市大幅反弹回到50日移动平均线上方时，人们非常兴奋，这是许多人的关键晴雨表，也是今年标普500的关键支撑位。”这种情况发生在“现金和衍生品市场成交量接近创纪录水平”的50日均线被突破时，这只会加剧反弹的强度。到周五，该移动平均线已被收复，并在本周收于该移动平均线之上，就连威尔逊也承认，这是一次重要的技术胜利。然而，他随后补充道，从他的角度来看，“过去一年建立的非常明确的上升趋势被打破了，没有恢复。相反，看起来周三至周五的反弹只是‘填补了缺口’。”周一休息。”</blockquote></p><p> His conclusion on upcoming market action will hardly come as a surprise to those who have followed Wilson's progressive pessimism across 2021: pointing to the market's inability to recover its prior trendline, he says \"this leaves the technical picture very uncertain in our view and one can now break either way. With our fundamental view skewing poorly at the moment, we lean to the bearish outcome.\"</p><p><blockquote>对于那些关注威尔逊在2021年逐步悲观情绪的人来说，他关于即将到来的市场行动的结论并不令人惊讶：他指出市场无法恢复之前的趋势线，他表示，“这使得我们认为技术面非常不确定，现在可以打破任何一种方式。由于我们的基本面观点目前不佳，我们倾向于看跌结果。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fc56e35f140c96104f8d8aa0826fd3\" tg-width=\"1100\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Getting back to his process, Wilson then says that he has high conviction that \"earnings growth is likely to decelerate more than what the current consensus is forecasting.\" Furthermore, he thinks the market is starting to agree with that view and points to market breadth as a good leading indicator for earnings revision breadth where he says \"direction is clear\" and pointing to the newly shrinking market breadth, he reminds readers that earnings revision breadth is a good leading indicator for the overall market.</p><p><blockquote>回到他的过程，威尔逊随后表示，他坚信“盈利增长的减速可能会超过当前共识的预测。”此外，他认为市场开始同意这一观点，并指出市场广度是盈利修正广度的良好领先指标，他说“方向很明确”，并指出新萎缩的市场广度，他提醒读者，盈利修正广度是整体市场的良好领先指标。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It will therefore hardly come as a surprise that with Wilson still clearly bearish, his advice to clients is \"<b>don’t get too caught up in last week’s strong rebound from Monday’s sharp sell off\"</b>which he views as a clean break of the uptrend and a filling of the gap created from Monday's crack. And with the technical picture murky, \"<b>that's a time to trust the fundamental and cycle analyses which suggest lower equity prices ahead\"</b>and as growth decelerates and financial conditions tighten, valuations are likely to fall from their lofty levels.</p><p><blockquote>因此，由于威尔逊仍然明显看跌，他给客户的建议是“<b>不要太沉迷于上周从周一大幅抛售中的强劲反弹”</b>他认为这是对上升趋势的彻底突破，并填补了周一缺口造成的缺口。由于技术情况不明朗，”<b>现在是相信基本面和周期分析的时候了，这些分析表明未来股价会下跌。”</b>随着增长放缓和金融状况收紧，估值可能会从高位回落。</blockquote></p><p> * * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p> With all that in mind, Wilson goes back to his core fundamental thesis which is simple: after a blockbuster Q2 season, earnings are set to drop substantially as a result of the margin compression we discussed most recently over the weekend, to wit:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，威尔逊回到了他的核心基本论点，这个论点很简单：在经历了轰动一时的第二季度之后，由于我们最近在周末讨论的利润率压缩，盈利将大幅下降，即：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Since the second quarter of 2020 earnings results have come in much higher than consensus forecasts</b>. Earnings beats ranged from 14% - 22% over this period while the median beat rate since 2008 is only 5%...We do not think companies will continue to beat at such an unprecedented rate and believe 3Q could see a material change in the more recent trend as supply chain issues and labor shortages pose a risk to both top line and margins.  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e643723cfa540ad52a1dcebcba24f3\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><b>自2020年第二季度以来，盈利结果远高于市场普遍预期</b>在此期间，盈利超出预期范围为14%-22%，而自2008年以来的中位超出预期率仅为5%……我们认为公司不会继续以如此前所未有的速度超出预期，并相信第三季度可能会出现重大变化随着供应链问题和劳动力短缺对营收和利润率构成风险，最近的趋势。</blockquote></p><p>   We looked at how 3Q earnings estimate revisions have trended at the industry group and sector level. Significant cuts have occurred in insurance, capital goods and transportation.   <b>Consumer Durables is the only area that has seen significant positive revisions at the industry group level. 3Q S&amp;P 500 estimates have fallen by 77 bps over past 4 weeks. We expect more downside.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5496394c7a42ab136f68ba74c64cf83\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6beae58fd458a45024d160d45b4684\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>我们研究了行业组和行业层面第三季度盈利预测修正的趋势。保险、资本货物和运输都出现了大幅削减。<b>耐用消费品是行业集团层面唯一出现重大积极修正的领域。过去4周，第三季度标普500预期下降了77个基点。我们预计会有更多的下行空间。</b></blockquote></p><p> No surprises there, as the margin compression story is a familiar one (\"Margins Crushed As Producer Prices Explode At Record Pace In July\"). To Wilson, however, this is the story and one which the market refuses to even consider:</p><p><blockquote>这并不奇怪，因为利润率压缩的故事是一个熟悉的故事（“随着7月份生产者价格以创纪录的速度爆炸，利润率被压垮”）。然而，对威尔逊来说，这是一个市场甚至拒绝考虑的故事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>2022 consensus margin estimates are historically lofty...</b>we examine the risks to margins in coming quarters through two different top down approaches. The spread between GDP growth and wage growth correlates fairly closely with operating margins over time. Based on our economists' estimates<b>, this spread should decelerate in coming quarters, which suggests margins should contract, not expand as bottom-up consensus expects</b>.</p><p><blockquote><b>2022年共识利润率预期处于历史高位……</b>我们通过两种不同的自上而下的方法来研究未来几个季度的利润率风险。随着时间的推移，GDP增长和工资增长之间的利差与营业利润率密切相关。基于我们经济学家的估计<b>这种利差应该会在未来几个季度减速，这表明利润率应该收缩，而不是像自下而上的共识预期的那样扩大</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e80ec048b5856ebf2159d1d9d0151334\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Further, corporate transcript mentions of \"cost pressures\" and related terms are historically elevated. When this has happened in the past, margins have consolidated.</p><p><blockquote>此外，公司记录中提及“成本压力”和相关术语的数量历来较高。当这种情况在过去发生时，利润率已经巩固。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c8fcfa4bb23d953d8c2079bc1a0ec5\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson's final bearish point is that companies are reaching the limit on how much of rising input costs they can pass on to consumers. As he puts it, while \"many investors that we speak to are optimistic about corporates' ability to pass on cost through pricing and protect margins\" he would caution that \"prices in several consumer end markets are already at a level that is inhibiting demand. We think the risk of this dynamic (high prices leading to demand destruction) spreading to other areas of consumer demand is especially elevated because goods consumption is already so far above trend—<b>in other words, high prices are that much more of a deterrent given households have already overconsumed in many areas.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>威尔逊的最后一个看跌观点是，企业将投入成本上升转嫁给消费者的程度已经达到了极限。正如他所说，虽然“我们采访的许多投资者对企业通过定价转嫁成本和保护利润的能力持乐观态度”，但他警告说，“几个消费终端市场的价格已经处于抑制需求的水平。我们认为这种动态（高价格导致需求破坏）蔓延到消费者需求其他领域的风险尤其高，因为商品消费已经远远高于趋势——<b>换句话说，鉴于许多地区的家庭已经过度消费，高物价更具威慑力。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216bbe5eae73445b35a9152e741dccef\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Translation: absent another multi-trillion stimmy - and thanks to the chaos in the democratic party we know one is unlikely to come - Wilson's call for a 20% drop in stocks in the next few months remains intact.</p><p><blockquote>翻译：如果没有另一个数万亿美元的刺激——由于民主党的混乱，我们知道不太可能出现——威尔逊未来几个月股市下跌20%的看涨期权仍然完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-dismisses-strong-rebound-remains-bearish-coming-earnings-disappointment\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-dismisses-strong-rebound-remains-bearish-coming-earnings-disappointment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166571782","content_text":"For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumbling on Evergrande default fears, Wilson emerged from his faux-bull cocoon (havingraised his year-end S&P price target from 3,900 to 4,000 in Augustin a note that reeked of disgust with what he was being told to do) and warned that an \"Ice is coming\", referring to a 20% drop in stocks as opposed to the more modest 10% correction envisioned in his \"fire\" scenario, saying that \"the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction\", a drop he expects will take place some time this fall.\nWilson also predicted that with earnings growth and PMIs set to drop, it would adversely impact forward PE multiples and by extension the S&P.\n\nWell, what a difference 7 days makes: with Evergrande default fears now long forgotten with little to no offshore contagion, the S&P is almost 150 points from its \"Evergrande Monday\" lows and once again pushing back toward all time highs (even if with a major rotation in the leadership as tech stocks are now sliding, having been replaced by value, cyclical and reopening names) in the process yet again foiling Wilson's bearish visions.\nSo has the market's sharp post-opex bounce changed the mind of the chief strategist that this seemingly invincible market will never go down again more than just a token 5% move?\nToday we got the answer in Wilson's latest weekly warm-up not, in which he makes it clear that his bearish outlook remains, and as he explains, \"our process tells us the risk-reward remains unattractive at the index level given slowing growth and rising rates. Meanwhile, price action can be interpreted bullishly or bearishly. With 3Q earnings season likely to bring a much more muted outcome, we remain defensive in our positioning.\"\nWe'll get to why in a second, but first Wilson - realizing that he would get a criticism for what many viewed as a premature victory lap - spends the first few paragraphs of his latest note going over the details of his analytical process. This is how he lays it out:\n\nOur equity strategy process has several key components. Most importantly, we focus on the fundamentals of growth and valuation to determine whether the overall market is attractive and which sectors and stocks look the best/worst.The rate of change on growth is more important than the absolute level, and we use a market-based equity risk premium framework that works well as long as you apply the correct regime when using it. In that regard, we’re an avid student of market cycles and believe historical analogs can be helpful. For example, the mid cycle transition narrative that has worked so well this year is derived directly from our study of historical economic and market cycles.\n\n\nThe final component we spend a lot of time on is price.While most would call this technical analysis, we’d like to think we do it a little bit differently. Markets aren’t always efficient, but we believe they are often very good leading indicators for the fundamentals—the ultimate driver of value. This is especially true if one looks at the internal movements and relative strength of individual securities. In short, \n we find these internals to be much more helpful than simply looking at the major averages.\n\n\nThis year, we think the process has lived up to its promise quite well with the price action lining up nicely with the fundamental backdrop.In short, the large cap quality leadership since March is signaling what we believe is about to happen—i.e., decelerating growth and tightening financial conditions. The question for investors is whether the price action has fully discounted those outcomes.\n\nWith that disclosure in hand, and with the clear understanding that at least in his view investors are not discounting any adverse outcomes at this point, Wilson proceeds to discuss the recent market action, noting that stocks\"sold off hard last Monday on concerns about the Evergrande bankruptcy\"and while he adds that it is the Morgan Stanley \"house view\" that it likely won’t lead to a major financial contagion, \"it will probably weigh on China growth for the next few quarters which means that the growth deceleration we are expecting could be a bit worse.\"\nThe other reason Wilson suggests was behind the market weakness early last week \"likely had to do with concern about the Fed articulating its plans to taper asset purchases later this year and perhaps even move up the timing of rate hikes to next year. On that score, the Fed did not disappoint as they pretty much told us to expect the taper to begin in December.The surprise was the speed in which they expect to be done tapering—by mid 2022.This is about a quarter sooner than the market had been anticipating and does move up the odds for a rate hike in 2022.\"\nCuriously last week's rally happened in the aftermath of the market's perplexing kneejerk response to the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when stocks rallied even as bonds sold off sharply, particularly at the back end. Real 10-year yields were up 11bps in 2 days and are now up 31bps in just 8 weeks (Exhibit 1). That according to Wilson is \"tightening of financial conditions for sure\" and should weigh on PEs overall but it also has big implications for what should work at the sector/style level (Exhibit 2).\n\nIn short, Wilson digs in and claims that higher real rates should mean lower P/Es overall which likely means lower S&P 500, thus validating his bearish view which still sees the S&P dropping some 20% from its current perch to hit 4,000 by year end. However, he concedes, \"it may also mean value over growth and small caps over Nasdaq even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"\nWhich brings us to the key question we spent quite some time discussing last week, namelywhy did stocks rally so much into the end of the weekon what Wilson says are odds that growth will decelerate more than expected from Evergrande and financial conditions may tighten faster?\nHere Wilson is at least honest - as he puts it - and says \"we’re not sure but we think this may be a time when the markets are playing tricks on investors and even setting a bit of a trap.\" Actually it's simpler than that and has to do with thegamma reversal and technical flows we pointed out last week, but one has to be a \"greek geek\" - like Nomura's Charlie McElligott - to get that.\nThe other explanation proposed by Wilson is \"that investors were somewhat positioned for bad news going into the Fed meeting and the actual event simply served as a relief that it didn’t lead lower prices. This price action drove many investors to chase on Thursday for fear of missing out.In short, don’t underestimate the power of price to determine how investors interpret the facts.Just like negative price action can get people to sell the lows, positive price action can force people to buy\", he concludes.\nWhatever the reason for the initial bounce, it quickly accelerated and there was \"a lot of excitement last Thursday when stocks rallied sharply back above the 50 day moving average, a key barometer for many and a key level of support throughout this year for the S&P 500.\" That this happened when the 50DMA was broken \"on near record levels of volume in both the cash and derivatives markets\" only punctuated the strength of the rebound. By Friday, that moving average had been reclaimed and closed above it for the week, an important technical win as even Wilson admits. However, he then adds, from his vantage point, \"the very well defined uptrend that has been established over the past year was broken and not reclaimed. Instead, it looks like the rally from Wednesday to Friday was simply \"filling the gap\" created from Monday's break.\"\nHis conclusion on upcoming market action will hardly come as a surprise to those who have followed Wilson's progressive pessimism across 2021: pointing to the market's inability to recover its prior trendline, he says \"this leaves the technical picture very uncertain in our view and one can now break either way. With our fundamental view skewing poorly at the moment, we lean to the bearish outcome.\"\n\nGetting back to his process, Wilson then says that he has high conviction that \"earnings growth is likely to decelerate more than what the current consensus is forecasting.\" Furthermore, he thinks the market is starting to agree with that view and points to market breadth as a good leading indicator for earnings revision breadth where he says \"direction is clear\" and pointing to the newly shrinking market breadth, he reminds readers that earnings revision breadth is a good leading indicator for the overall market.\nIt will therefore hardly come as a surprise that with Wilson still clearly bearish, his advice to clients is \"don’t get too caught up in last week’s strong rebound from Monday’s sharp sell off\"which he views as a clean break of the uptrend and a filling of the gap created from Monday's crack. And with the technical picture murky, \"that's a time to trust the fundamental and cycle analyses which suggest lower equity prices ahead\"and as growth decelerates and financial conditions tighten, valuations are likely to fall from their lofty levels.\n* * *\nWith all that in mind, Wilson goes back to his core fundamental thesis which is simple: after a blockbuster Q2 season, earnings are set to drop substantially as a result of the margin compression we discussed most recently over the weekend, to wit:\n\nSince the second quarter of 2020 earnings results have come in much higher than consensus forecasts. Earnings beats ranged from 14% - 22% over this period while the median beat rate since 2008 is only 5%...We do not think companies will continue to beat at such an unprecedented rate and believe 3Q could see a material change in the more recent trend as supply chain issues and labor shortages pose a risk to both top line and margins.\n\n\n\n We looked at how 3Q earnings estimate revisions have trended at the industry group and sector level. Significant cuts have occurred in insurance, capital goods and transportation. \n Consumer Durables is the only area that has seen significant positive revisions at the industry group level. 3Q S&P 500 estimates have fallen by 77 bps over past 4 weeks. We expect more downside.\n\n\nNo surprises there, as the margin compression story is a familiar one (\"Margins Crushed As Producer Prices Explode At Record Pace In July\"). To Wilson, however, this is the story and one which the market refuses to even consider:\n2022 consensus margin estimates are historically lofty...we examine the risks to margins in coming quarters through two different top down approaches. The spread between GDP growth and wage growth correlates fairly closely with operating margins over time. Based on our economists' estimates, this spread should decelerate in coming quarters, which suggests margins should contract, not expand as bottom-up consensus expects.\n\nFurther, corporate transcript mentions of \"cost pressures\" and related terms are historically elevated. When this has happened in the past, margins have consolidated.\n\nWilson's final bearish point is that companies are reaching the limit on how much of rising input costs they can pass on to consumers. As he puts it, while \"many investors that we speak to are optimistic about corporates' ability to pass on cost through pricing and protect margins\" he would caution that \"prices in several consumer end markets are already at a level that is inhibiting demand. We think the risk of this dynamic (high prices leading to demand destruction) spreading to other areas of consumer demand is especially elevated because goods consumption is already so far above trend—in other words, high prices are that much more of a deterrent given households have already overconsumed in many areas.\"\n\nTranslation: absent another multi-trillion stimmy - and thanks to the chaos in the democratic party we know one is unlikely to come - Wilson's call for a 20% drop in stocks in the next few months remains intact.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":883740875,"gmtCreate":1631276713897,"gmtModify":1631892155839,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"10 to 15% good for buy the dip","listText":"10 to 15% good for buy the dip","text":"10 to 15% good for buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883740875","repostId":"2166897344","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835854435,"gmtCreate":1629706484927,"gmtModify":1631892155842,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BRK &amp; SE .... the least also 10% return pa ....&nbsp;long term holding&nbsp; ..[美金]&nbsp;[美金]&nbsp;","listText":"BRK &amp; SE .... the least also 10% return pa ....&nbsp;long term holding&nbsp; ..[美金]&nbsp;[美金]&nbsp;","text":"BRK & SE .... the least also 10% return pa .... long term holding ..[美金] [美金]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835854435","repostId":"2161742695","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":831038307,"gmtCreate":1629271652709,"gmtModify":1631885409381,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tepper sell mostly FAANG counter and adding Uber ..... holding cash or&nbsp;expecting buy in dip!","listText":"Tepper sell mostly FAANG counter and adding Uber ..... holding cash or&nbsp;expecting buy in dip!","text":"Tepper sell mostly FAANG counter and adding Uber ..... holding cash or expecting buy in dip!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831038307","repostId":"1137059057","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898668126,"gmtCreate":1628494048065,"gmtModify":1631892155844,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Too big to move exponentially...this will be long term investment","listText":"Too big to move exponentially...this will be long term investment","text":"Too big to move exponentially...this will be long term investment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898668126","repostId":"2157492988","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807727668,"gmtCreate":1628060748754,"gmtModify":1631892155849,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Vaccine follow by booster.... then booster combine w flu med ...how many vaccine a human need!","listText":"Vaccine follow by booster.... then booster combine w flu med ...how many vaccine a human need!","text":"Vaccine follow by booster.... then booster combine w flu med ...how many vaccine a human need!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807727668","repostId":"1124757232","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124757232","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628045612,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124757232?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 10:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 COVID Stocks That Could Soar Higher<blockquote>3只可能飙升的新冠股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124757232","media":"The Motley Fool","summary":"Here's why Pfizer, Inari Medical, and Novavax shares might be more valuable in 2021.\nKey Points\n\nPfi","content":"<p><b><i>Here's why Pfizer, Inari Medical, and Novavax shares might be more valuable in 2021.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>这就是为什么辉瑞、Inari Medical和Novavax的股票在2021年可能更有价值。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Pfizer might surprise to the upside.</li>  <li>Inari Medical is growing like gangbusters.</li>  <li>Novavax's vaccine might be an important booster shot as the COVID-19 virus mutates.</li> </ul> COVID-19 and the international lockdown crashed the world economy in 2020. Many people have already been vaccinated and are looking forward to normalization. But COVID is mutating, and the new delta variant might toss a wrench into the world's reopening. How might investors protect themselves?</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>辉瑞可能会带来惊喜。</li><li>伊那里医疗公司正在飞速发展。</li><li>随着COVID-19病毒的变异，Novavax的疫苗可能是一剂重要的加强针。</li></ul>2020年，新冠肺炎和国际封锁导致世界经济崩溃。许多人已经接种了疫苗，并期待正常化。但COVID正在变异，新的德尔塔变异毒株可能会给世界的重新开放带来麻烦。投资者如何保护自己？</blockquote></p><p> A panel of Motley Fool contributors offers three ideas for healthcare stocks that will zoom higher in 2021, even if COVID takes a turn for the worse. Read more to see why you might want to buy shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a></b>,&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NARI\">Inari Medical, Inc.</a></b>, and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool撰稿人小组为医疗保健股提供了三个想法，即使新冠疫情形势恶化，这些股票也将在2021年飙升。阅读更多内容，了解为什么您可能想购买<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a></b>, <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NARI\">伊那里医疗公司。</a></b>，和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>.</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ed6a343e35e121aafbaa2b30134955\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Pfizer: More room to run</b></h3> <b>George Budwell</b>&nbsp;<b>(Pfizer):</b>&nbsp;American pharma titan Pfizer might not sound like a sexy pick among the present cohort of COVID vaccine players. Wall Street's current consensus has Comirnaty, the drugmaker's vaccine -- produced in partnership with&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a>&nbsp;-- losing steam from a sales perspective starting in 2022.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>辉瑞：更多运行空间</b></h3><b>乔治·布德维尔</b> <b>（辉瑞）：</b>在目前的新冠疫苗公司中，美国制药巨头辉瑞听起来可能不是一个性感的选择。华尔街目前的共识是制药商Comirnaty的疫苗——与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a>——从2022年开始，从销售角度来看失去动力。</blockquote></p><p> Because of the delta variant, however, Comirnaty's commercial life could turn out to be much longer than originally expected. And while the emergence of the highly transmissible variant is obviously terrible news for society at large, Pfizer and its shareholders are probably going to benefit from this unfortunate development.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于德尔塔变异毒株，Comirnaty的商业寿命可能会比最初预期的长得多。虽然高传播变种的出现对整个社会来说显然是个坏消息，但辉瑞及其股东可能会从这一不幸的发展中受益。</blockquote></p><p> There are two clear reasons to think that Pfizer's stock could move higher on the delta issue. First and foremost, the company&nbsp;announced&nbsp;that an Emergency Use Authorization submission for a booster third shot might happen as soon as this month. Second, Pfizer plans to start clinical trials for a delta-specific version of the vaccine this month.</p><p><blockquote>有两个明显的理由认为辉瑞的股价可能会因达美航空问题而走高。首先，该公司宣布，最早可能在本月提交第三次加强注射的紧急使用授权。其次，辉瑞计划本月启动德尔塔特异性版本疫苗的临床试验。</blockquote></p><p> Although the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have both recently downplayed the need for booster shots, Pfizer has already put forth a compelling case for a third jab in response to the rampant spread of the delta variant and the waning efficacy of Comirnaty 6 to 12 months following full vaccination.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国食品药品监督管理局和疾病控制与预防中心最近都淡化了加强注射的必要性，但辉瑞已经提出了第三次注射的令人信服的理由，以应对德尔塔变异毒株的猖獗传播和Comirnaty在完全接种疫苗后6至12个月的疗效减弱。</blockquote></p><p> The big picture for investors is that Pfizer's 2022 revenue might jump by as much as 9.7% compared to 2021 -- that is, if a booster shot is indeed approved and the company also successfully develops a delta-specific vaccine. By contrast, Wall Street currently has the drugmaker's top line falling by 14.8% next year relative to 2021.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，总体情况是，辉瑞2022年的收入可能比2021年增长9.7%——也就是说，如果加强注射确实获得批准，并且该公司还成功开发了delta特异性疫苗。相比之下，华尔街目前预计该制药商明年的营收将比2021年下降14.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Where is Pfizer's stock possibly headed? If all the pieces fall into place on the vaccine front, shares ought to command a $50 handle, from a conservative standpoint. That's roughly a 17% upswing from where the drugmaker's shares presently stand, and that's not even accounting for the company's attractive 3.64% dividend yield at current levels. Put simply, Pfizer's stock would only be trading at approximately 3.5 times 2022 sales if this scenario pans out, which is a rather modest valuation for a&nbsp;dividend-paying&nbsp;big pharma stock.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞的股票可能走向何方？从保守的角度来看，如果疫苗方面的所有部分都到位，股价应该会达到50美元。这比该制药商的股价目前上涨了大约17%，甚至还没有考虑到该公司当前水平上颇具吸引力的3.64%股息收益率。简而言之，如果这种情况实现，辉瑞的股票交易价格将仅为2022年销售额的约3.5倍，对于派息的大型制药股来说，这是一个相当适中的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Inari Medical: Skyrocketing Sales</b></h3> <b>Patrick Bafuma</b>&nbsp;<b>(Inari Medical):</b>&nbsp;If you are looking for a stock with staying power after tailwinds from the pandemic subside, look to Inari Medical. There were 108,000 new COVID cases on July 27, 2021 -- the most since February 5, 2021, according to&nbsp;<i>The New York Times</i>&nbsp;-- and that number was up over eight times the seven-day average at the start of July. To make things even worse, COVID not only causes difficulty breathing but also more than triples a patient's risk of disabling and potentially life-threatening blood clots. And we're still not sure if being vaccinated fully mitigates the risk of blood clots when a patient has an asymptomatic or a mild COVID infection.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>伊那里医疗：销售额暴涨</b></h3><b>帕特里克·巴富马</b> <b>（伊那里医疗）：</b>如果您正在寻找一只在大流行的顺风消退后具有持久力的股票，请关注伊那里医疗。数据显示，2021年7月27日新增108,000例新冠病例，为2021年2月5日以来最多<i>纽约时报</i>——这个数字是7月初7天平均水平的八倍多。更糟糕的是，COVID不仅会导致呼吸困难，还会使患者患致残和可能危及生命的血栓的风险增加两倍以上。我们仍然不确定当患者无症状或轻度COVID感染时，接种疫苗是否能完全降低血栓的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> This seems like a good setup for a commercial-stage med-tech company that has developed minimally invasive products designed to remove large blood clots without the need for powerful clot-busting drugs. Through the use of its ClotTriever and FlowTriever devices, Inari has treated over 25,000 patients so far. Clinicians performed approximately 5,500 procedures with the company's devices in the first quarter of 2021,&nbsp;up 130% from the same quarter last year&nbsp;and about 20% higher than the fourth quarter of 2020. With about 12% of admitted COVID patients developing blood clots, and about 35,000 COVID hospitalizations in the U.S. (and rising) as of July 27, according to<i>The Times</i>, Inari is likely to see an uptick in eligible cases.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家商业阶段的医疗技术公司来说，这似乎是一个很好的设置，该公司开发了微创产品，旨在消除大血凝块，而不需要强大的血栓破坏药物。通过使用ClotTriever和FlowTriever设备，伊那里迄今已治疗了25,000多名患者。2021年第一季度，临床医生使用该公司的设备进行了约5,500次手术，比去年同季度增长130%，比2020年第四季度增长约20%。根据数据，截至7月27日，美国约有12%的新冠肺炎患者出现血栓，约有35,000人因新冠肺炎住院（并且还在增加）<i>纽约时报</i>，伊那里可能会看到符合条件的病例增加。</blockquote></p><p> Not to mention the company's results thus far for blood clots in the lung are spectacular:</p><p><blockquote>更不用说该公司迄今为止在肺部血栓方面的结果非常惊人：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>With the historic 30-day mortality rate of intermediate and high-risk blood clots in the lungs at 9.7%, Inari's 0.4% 30-day mortality rate is impressive.</li>  <li>There's a decreased 30-day readmission rate of 6.7% versus 24.4% with the usual care.</li>  <li>Major adverse events within 48 hours occur at only a 1.3% rate.</li>  <li>No ICU stays are required after the procedure.</li> </ul> Add it all up, and Inari's retrieval device seems like an obvious choice.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于肺部中高风险血栓的历史30天死亡率为9.7%，伊那里0.4%的30天死亡率令人印象深刻。</li><li>30天再入院率降低了6.7%，而常规护理为24.4%。</li><li>48小时内的主要不良事件发生率仅为1.3%。</li><li>手术后不需要住ICU。</li></ul>所有这些加起来，伊那里的检索设备似乎是一个显而易见的选择。</blockquote></p><p> The company grew first-quarter revenue at 113% year over year, and&nbsp;18% sequentially, and had gross margins of 91.9% for the first quarter of 2021. So Inari's price-to-sales ratio of 18 makes it a growth stock on sale.</p><p><blockquote>该公司第一季度收入同比增长113%，环比增长18%，2021年第一季度毛利率为91.9%。因此，伊那里的市销率为18，使其成为一只正在出售的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> Inari has&nbsp;less than 5% penetrationin the $3.8 billion U.S. market, and there's also lots of room to grow in Europe, where it launched earlier this year. That means there are plenty of opportunities for this $4.5-billion market cap company. While COVID has affected many elective and semi-elective procedures, it has clearly not slowed Inari, and it could even accelerate its uptake.</p><p><blockquote>Inari在价值38亿美元的美国市场的渗透率不到5%，今年早些时候在欧洲推出的市场也有很大的增长空间。这意味着这家市值45亿美元的公司有很多机会。虽然COVID影响了许多选择性和半选择性程序，但它显然没有减缓伊那里，甚至可能加速其吸收。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Novavax: How high can it go?</b></h3> <b>Taylor Carmichael</b>&nbsp;<b>(Novavax):</b>&nbsp;The vaccine&nbsp;biotech&nbsp;Novavax had an amazing 2020, with its share price running up&nbsp;2,700%&nbsp;on optimism for its COVID vaccine. While the company has yet to file for an Emergency Use Authorization, it expects to do so in this quarter. So far in 2021, the stock is up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>Novavax：能涨到多高？</b></h3><b>泰勒·卡迈克尔</b> <b>（诺瓦瓦克斯）：</b>疫苗生物技术公司Novavax在2020年表现出色，由于对其COVID疫苗的乐观情绪，其股价上涨了2700%。虽然该公司尚未申请紧急使用授权，但预计将在本季度申请。2021年迄今为止，该股已上涨60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7829d99a76c48579ba01c6e55fe14f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NVAX DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的NVAX数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Positive phase 3 data for the COVID-19 vaccine sent the stock soaring early in the year, but the share price has come back down to earth as the company has suffered delays getting its vaccine to market. First there was a shortage of raw materials necessary to make the vaccine. Now the company has to prove that its various contract manufacturing facilities will keep the vaccine quality consistent across all the sites.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19疫苗第三阶段的积极数据导致该股在今年年初飙升，但由于该公司的疫苗上市延迟，股价已经回落。首先，制造疫苗所需的原材料短缺。现在，该公司必须证明其各种合同生产设施将保持所有地点的疫苗质量一致。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these delays, long-term investors have reasons to be bullish. Manufacturing is scaling up, with production rates expected to hit 100 million doses a month by the end of the third quarter, and 150 million doses a month by December. While many people in the U.S. have already been vaccinated, the opportunity in the rest of the world is sizable. Novavax has pre-sold 1.1 billion doses to COVAX (an international vaccine consortium), and has contracted to supply hundreds of millions of doses around the world.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些延迟，但长期投资者有理由看涨。制造业正在扩大规模，预计到第三季度末，生产率将达到每月1亿剂，到12月将达到每月1.5亿剂。虽然美国的许多人已经接种了疫苗，但世界其他地方的机会相当大。Novavax已向COVAX（国际疫苗联盟）预售了11亿剂疫苗，并已签约在全球范围内供应数亿剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> In the U.S., the Novavax vaccine might primarily be used as a&nbsp;booster shot&nbsp;for people who have already been vaccinated. \"They may be really the right ones for boosters,\" Dr. Luciana Borio, the acting chief scientist at the F.D.A. from 2015 to 2017, told&nbsp;<i>The New York Times</i>.</p><p><blockquote>在美国，Novavax疫苗可能主要用于已经接种疫苗的人的加强注射。FDA代理首席科学家露丝安娜·博里奥(Luciana Borio)博士表示：“它们可能确实适合加强剂。”从2015年到2017年，告诉<i>纽约时报</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Down the road, Novavax plans on combining its COVID vaccine with its flu vaccine, making aone-shot regimen. While COVID does not mutate as quickly as the flu, we've seen several mutating strains over the last year. It's likely that we will need to vaccinate more than once in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>未来，Novavax计划将其新冠疫苗与流感疫苗结合起来，形成一种一次性疗法。虽然COVID的变异速度不如流感，但我们在过去一年中已经看到了几种变异毒株。在未来的几年里，我们很可能需要不止一次接种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 COVID Stocks That Could Soar Higher<blockquote>3只可能飙升的新冠股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 COVID Stocks That Could Soar Higher<blockquote>3只可能飙升的新冠股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 10:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><i>Here's why Pfizer, Inari Medical, and Novavax shares might be more valuable in 2021.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>这就是为什么辉瑞、Inari Medical和Novavax的股票在2021年可能更有价值。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Pfizer might surprise to the upside.</li>  <li>Inari Medical is growing like gangbusters.</li>  <li>Novavax's vaccine might be an important booster shot as the COVID-19 virus mutates.</li> </ul> COVID-19 and the international lockdown crashed the world economy in 2020. Many people have already been vaccinated and are looking forward to normalization. But COVID is mutating, and the new delta variant might toss a wrench into the world's reopening. How might investors protect themselves?</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>辉瑞可能会带来惊喜。</li><li>伊那里医疗公司正在飞速发展。</li><li>随着COVID-19病毒的变异，Novavax的疫苗可能是一剂重要的加强针。</li></ul>2020年，新冠肺炎和国际封锁导致世界经济崩溃。许多人已经接种了疫苗，并期待正常化。但COVID正在变异，新的德尔塔变异毒株可能会给世界的重新开放带来麻烦。投资者如何保护自己？</blockquote></p><p> A panel of Motley Fool contributors offers three ideas for healthcare stocks that will zoom higher in 2021, even if COVID takes a turn for the worse. Read more to see why you might want to buy shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a></b>,&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NARI\">Inari Medical, Inc.</a></b>, and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool撰稿人小组为医疗保健股提供了三个想法，即使新冠疫情形势恶化，这些股票也将在2021年飙升。阅读更多内容，了解为什么您可能想购买<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a></b>, <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NARI\">伊那里医疗公司。</a></b>，和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>.</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ed6a343e35e121aafbaa2b30134955\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Pfizer: More room to run</b></h3> <b>George Budwell</b>&nbsp;<b>(Pfizer):</b>&nbsp;American pharma titan Pfizer might not sound like a sexy pick among the present cohort of COVID vaccine players. Wall Street's current consensus has Comirnaty, the drugmaker's vaccine -- produced in partnership with&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a>&nbsp;-- losing steam from a sales perspective starting in 2022.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>辉瑞：更多运行空间</b></h3><b>乔治·布德维尔</b> <b>（辉瑞）：</b>在目前的新冠疫苗公司中，美国制药巨头辉瑞听起来可能不是一个性感的选择。华尔街目前的共识是制药商Comirnaty的疫苗——与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a>——从2022年开始，从销售角度来看失去动力。</blockquote></p><p> Because of the delta variant, however, Comirnaty's commercial life could turn out to be much longer than originally expected. And while the emergence of the highly transmissible variant is obviously terrible news for society at large, Pfizer and its shareholders are probably going to benefit from this unfortunate development.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于德尔塔变异毒株，Comirnaty的商业寿命可能会比最初预期的长得多。虽然高传播变种的出现对整个社会来说显然是个坏消息，但辉瑞及其股东可能会从这一不幸的发展中受益。</blockquote></p><p> There are two clear reasons to think that Pfizer's stock could move higher on the delta issue. First and foremost, the company&nbsp;announced&nbsp;that an Emergency Use Authorization submission for a booster third shot might happen as soon as this month. Second, Pfizer plans to start clinical trials for a delta-specific version of the vaccine this month.</p><p><blockquote>有两个明显的理由认为辉瑞的股价可能会因达美航空问题而走高。首先，该公司宣布，最早可能在本月提交第三次加强注射的紧急使用授权。其次，辉瑞计划本月启动德尔塔特异性版本疫苗的临床试验。</blockquote></p><p> Although the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have both recently downplayed the need for booster shots, Pfizer has already put forth a compelling case for a third jab in response to the rampant spread of the delta variant and the waning efficacy of Comirnaty 6 to 12 months following full vaccination.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国食品药品监督管理局和疾病控制与预防中心最近都淡化了加强注射的必要性，但辉瑞已经提出了第三次注射的令人信服的理由，以应对德尔塔变异毒株的猖獗传播和Comirnaty在完全接种疫苗后6至12个月的疗效减弱。</blockquote></p><p> The big picture for investors is that Pfizer's 2022 revenue might jump by as much as 9.7% compared to 2021 -- that is, if a booster shot is indeed approved and the company also successfully develops a delta-specific vaccine. By contrast, Wall Street currently has the drugmaker's top line falling by 14.8% next year relative to 2021.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，总体情况是，辉瑞2022年的收入可能比2021年增长9.7%——也就是说，如果加强注射确实获得批准，并且该公司还成功开发了delta特异性疫苗。相比之下，华尔街目前预计该制药商明年的营收将比2021年下降14.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Where is Pfizer's stock possibly headed? If all the pieces fall into place on the vaccine front, shares ought to command a $50 handle, from a conservative standpoint. That's roughly a 17% upswing from where the drugmaker's shares presently stand, and that's not even accounting for the company's attractive 3.64% dividend yield at current levels. Put simply, Pfizer's stock would only be trading at approximately 3.5 times 2022 sales if this scenario pans out, which is a rather modest valuation for a&nbsp;dividend-paying&nbsp;big pharma stock.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞的股票可能走向何方？从保守的角度来看，如果疫苗方面的所有部分都到位，股价应该会达到50美元。这比该制药商的股价目前上涨了大约17%，甚至还没有考虑到该公司当前水平上颇具吸引力的3.64%股息收益率。简而言之，如果这种情况实现，辉瑞的股票交易价格将仅为2022年销售额的约3.5倍，对于派息的大型制药股来说，这是一个相当适中的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Inari Medical: Skyrocketing Sales</b></h3> <b>Patrick Bafuma</b>&nbsp;<b>(Inari Medical):</b>&nbsp;If you are looking for a stock with staying power after tailwinds from the pandemic subside, look to Inari Medical. There were 108,000 new COVID cases on July 27, 2021 -- the most since February 5, 2021, according to&nbsp;<i>The New York Times</i>&nbsp;-- and that number was up over eight times the seven-day average at the start of July. To make things even worse, COVID not only causes difficulty breathing but also more than triples a patient's risk of disabling and potentially life-threatening blood clots. And we're still not sure if being vaccinated fully mitigates the risk of blood clots when a patient has an asymptomatic or a mild COVID infection.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>伊那里医疗：销售额暴涨</b></h3><b>帕特里克·巴富马</b> <b>（伊那里医疗）：</b>如果您正在寻找一只在大流行的顺风消退后具有持久力的股票，请关注伊那里医疗。数据显示，2021年7月27日新增108,000例新冠病例，为2021年2月5日以来最多<i>纽约时报</i>——这个数字是7月初7天平均水平的八倍多。更糟糕的是，COVID不仅会导致呼吸困难，还会使患者患致残和可能危及生命的血栓的风险增加两倍以上。我们仍然不确定当患者无症状或轻度COVID感染时，接种疫苗是否能完全降低血栓的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> This seems like a good setup for a commercial-stage med-tech company that has developed minimally invasive products designed to remove large blood clots without the need for powerful clot-busting drugs. Through the use of its ClotTriever and FlowTriever devices, Inari has treated over 25,000 patients so far. Clinicians performed approximately 5,500 procedures with the company's devices in the first quarter of 2021,&nbsp;up 130% from the same quarter last year&nbsp;and about 20% higher than the fourth quarter of 2020. With about 12% of admitted COVID patients developing blood clots, and about 35,000 COVID hospitalizations in the U.S. (and rising) as of July 27, according to<i>The Times</i>, Inari is likely to see an uptick in eligible cases.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家商业阶段的医疗技术公司来说，这似乎是一个很好的设置，该公司开发了微创产品，旨在消除大血凝块，而不需要强大的血栓破坏药物。通过使用ClotTriever和FlowTriever设备，伊那里迄今已治疗了25,000多名患者。2021年第一季度，临床医生使用该公司的设备进行了约5,500次手术，比去年同季度增长130%，比2020年第四季度增长约20%。根据数据，截至7月27日，美国约有12%的新冠肺炎患者出现血栓，约有35,000人因新冠肺炎住院（并且还在增加）<i>纽约时报</i>，伊那里可能会看到符合条件的病例增加。</blockquote></p><p> Not to mention the company's results thus far for blood clots in the lung are spectacular:</p><p><blockquote>更不用说该公司迄今为止在肺部血栓方面的结果非常惊人：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>With the historic 30-day mortality rate of intermediate and high-risk blood clots in the lungs at 9.7%, Inari's 0.4% 30-day mortality rate is impressive.</li>  <li>There's a decreased 30-day readmission rate of 6.7% versus 24.4% with the usual care.</li>  <li>Major adverse events within 48 hours occur at only a 1.3% rate.</li>  <li>No ICU stays are required after the procedure.</li> </ul> Add it all up, and Inari's retrieval device seems like an obvious choice.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于肺部中高风险血栓的历史30天死亡率为9.7%，伊那里0.4%的30天死亡率令人印象深刻。</li><li>30天再入院率降低了6.7%，而常规护理为24.4%。</li><li>48小时内的主要不良事件发生率仅为1.3%。</li><li>手术后不需要住ICU。</li></ul>所有这些加起来，伊那里的检索设备似乎是一个显而易见的选择。</blockquote></p><p> The company grew first-quarter revenue at 113% year over year, and&nbsp;18% sequentially, and had gross margins of 91.9% for the first quarter of 2021. So Inari's price-to-sales ratio of 18 makes it a growth stock on sale.</p><p><blockquote>该公司第一季度收入同比增长113%，环比增长18%，2021年第一季度毛利率为91.9%。因此，伊那里的市销率为18，使其成为一只正在出售的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> Inari has&nbsp;less than 5% penetrationin the $3.8 billion U.S. market, and there's also lots of room to grow in Europe, where it launched earlier this year. That means there are plenty of opportunities for this $4.5-billion market cap company. While COVID has affected many elective and semi-elective procedures, it has clearly not slowed Inari, and it could even accelerate its uptake.</p><p><blockquote>Inari在价值38亿美元的美国市场的渗透率不到5%，今年早些时候在欧洲推出的市场也有很大的增长空间。这意味着这家市值45亿美元的公司有很多机会。虽然COVID影响了许多选择性和半选择性程序，但它显然没有减缓伊那里，甚至可能加速其吸收。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Novavax: How high can it go?</b></h3> <b>Taylor Carmichael</b>&nbsp;<b>(Novavax):</b>&nbsp;The vaccine&nbsp;biotech&nbsp;Novavax had an amazing 2020, with its share price running up&nbsp;2,700%&nbsp;on optimism for its COVID vaccine. While the company has yet to file for an Emergency Use Authorization, it expects to do so in this quarter. So far in 2021, the stock is up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>Novavax：能涨到多高？</b></h3><b>泰勒·卡迈克尔</b> <b>（诺瓦瓦克斯）：</b>疫苗生物技术公司Novavax在2020年表现出色，由于对其COVID疫苗的乐观情绪，其股价上涨了2700%。虽然该公司尚未申请紧急使用授权，但预计将在本季度申请。2021年迄今为止，该股已上涨60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7829d99a76c48579ba01c6e55fe14f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NVAX DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的NVAX数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Positive phase 3 data for the COVID-19 vaccine sent the stock soaring early in the year, but the share price has come back down to earth as the company has suffered delays getting its vaccine to market. First there was a shortage of raw materials necessary to make the vaccine. Now the company has to prove that its various contract manufacturing facilities will keep the vaccine quality consistent across all the sites.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19疫苗第三阶段的积极数据导致该股在今年年初飙升，但由于该公司的疫苗上市延迟，股价已经回落。首先，制造疫苗所需的原材料短缺。现在，该公司必须证明其各种合同生产设施将保持所有地点的疫苗质量一致。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these delays, long-term investors have reasons to be bullish. Manufacturing is scaling up, with production rates expected to hit 100 million doses a month by the end of the third quarter, and 150 million doses a month by December. While many people in the U.S. have already been vaccinated, the opportunity in the rest of the world is sizable. Novavax has pre-sold 1.1 billion doses to COVAX (an international vaccine consortium), and has contracted to supply hundreds of millions of doses around the world.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些延迟，但长期投资者有理由看涨。制造业正在扩大规模，预计到第三季度末，生产率将达到每月1亿剂，到12月将达到每月1.5亿剂。虽然美国的许多人已经接种了疫苗，但世界其他地方的机会相当大。Novavax已向COVAX（国际疫苗联盟）预售了11亿剂疫苗，并已签约在全球范围内供应数亿剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> In the U.S., the Novavax vaccine might primarily be used as a&nbsp;booster shot&nbsp;for people who have already been vaccinated. \"They may be really the right ones for boosters,\" Dr. Luciana Borio, the acting chief scientist at the F.D.A. from 2015 to 2017, told&nbsp;<i>The New York Times</i>.</p><p><blockquote>在美国，Novavax疫苗可能主要用于已经接种疫苗的人的加强注射。FDA代理首席科学家露丝安娜·博里奥(Luciana Borio)博士表示：“它们可能确实适合加强剂。”从2015年到2017年，告诉<i>纽约时报</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Down the road, Novavax plans on combining its COVID vaccine with its flu vaccine, making aone-shot regimen. While COVID does not mutate as quickly as the flu, we've seen several mutating strains over the last year. It's likely that we will need to vaccinate more than once in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>未来，Novavax计划将其新冠疫苗与流感疫苗结合起来，形成一种一次性疗法。虽然COVID的变异速度不如流感，但我们在过去一年中已经看到了几种变异毒株。在未来的几年里，我们很可能需要不止一次接种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/03/3-covid-stocks-that-will-soar-higher/\">The Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药","PFE":"辉瑞","NARI":"Inari Medical, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/03/3-covid-stocks-that-will-soar-higher/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124757232","content_text":"Here's why Pfizer, Inari Medical, and Novavax shares might be more valuable in 2021.\nKey Points\n\nPfizer might surprise to the upside.\nInari Medical is growing like gangbusters.\nNovavax's vaccine might be an important booster shot as the COVID-19 virus mutates.\n\nCOVID-19 and the international lockdown crashed the world economy in 2020. Many people have already been vaccinated and are looking forward to normalization. But COVID is mutating, and the new delta variant might toss a wrench into the world's reopening. How might investors protect themselves?\nA panel of Motley Fool contributors offers three ideas for healthcare stocks that will zoom higher in 2021, even if COVID takes a turn for the worse. Read more to see why you might want to buy shares of Pfizer, Inari Medical, Inc., and Novavax.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nPfizer: More room to run\nGeorge Budwell (Pfizer): American pharma titan Pfizer might not sound like a sexy pick among the present cohort of COVID vaccine players. Wall Street's current consensus has Comirnaty, the drugmaker's vaccine -- produced in partnership with BioNTech SE -- losing steam from a sales perspective starting in 2022.\nBecause of the delta variant, however, Comirnaty's commercial life could turn out to be much longer than originally expected. And while the emergence of the highly transmissible variant is obviously terrible news for society at large, Pfizer and its shareholders are probably going to benefit from this unfortunate development.\nThere are two clear reasons to think that Pfizer's stock could move higher on the delta issue. First and foremost, the company announced that an Emergency Use Authorization submission for a booster third shot might happen as soon as this month. Second, Pfizer plans to start clinical trials for a delta-specific version of the vaccine this month.\nAlthough the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have both recently downplayed the need for booster shots, Pfizer has already put forth a compelling case for a third jab in response to the rampant spread of the delta variant and the waning efficacy of Comirnaty 6 to 12 months following full vaccination.\nThe big picture for investors is that Pfizer's 2022 revenue might jump by as much as 9.7% compared to 2021 -- that is, if a booster shot is indeed approved and the company also successfully develops a delta-specific vaccine. By contrast, Wall Street currently has the drugmaker's top line falling by 14.8% next year relative to 2021.\nWhere is Pfizer's stock possibly headed? If all the pieces fall into place on the vaccine front, shares ought to command a $50 handle, from a conservative standpoint. That's roughly a 17% upswing from where the drugmaker's shares presently stand, and that's not even accounting for the company's attractive 3.64% dividend yield at current levels. Put simply, Pfizer's stock would only be trading at approximately 3.5 times 2022 sales if this scenario pans out, which is a rather modest valuation for a dividend-paying big pharma stock.\nInari Medical: Skyrocketing Sales\nPatrick Bafuma (Inari Medical): If you are looking for a stock with staying power after tailwinds from the pandemic subside, look to Inari Medical. There were 108,000 new COVID cases on July 27, 2021 -- the most since February 5, 2021, according to The New York Times -- and that number was up over eight times the seven-day average at the start of July. To make things even worse, COVID not only causes difficulty breathing but also more than triples a patient's risk of disabling and potentially life-threatening blood clots. And we're still not sure if being vaccinated fully mitigates the risk of blood clots when a patient has an asymptomatic or a mild COVID infection.\nThis seems like a good setup for a commercial-stage med-tech company that has developed minimally invasive products designed to remove large blood clots without the need for powerful clot-busting drugs. Through the use of its ClotTriever and FlowTriever devices, Inari has treated over 25,000 patients so far. Clinicians performed approximately 5,500 procedures with the company's devices in the first quarter of 2021, up 130% from the same quarter last year and about 20% higher than the fourth quarter of 2020. With about 12% of admitted COVID patients developing blood clots, and about 35,000 COVID hospitalizations in the U.S. (and rising) as of July 27, according toThe Times, Inari is likely to see an uptick in eligible cases.\nNot to mention the company's results thus far for blood clots in the lung are spectacular:\n\nWith the historic 30-day mortality rate of intermediate and high-risk blood clots in the lungs at 9.7%, Inari's 0.4% 30-day mortality rate is impressive.\nThere's a decreased 30-day readmission rate of 6.7% versus 24.4% with the usual care.\nMajor adverse events within 48 hours occur at only a 1.3% rate.\nNo ICU stays are required after the procedure.\n\nAdd it all up, and Inari's retrieval device seems like an obvious choice.\nThe company grew first-quarter revenue at 113% year over year, and 18% sequentially, and had gross margins of 91.9% for the first quarter of 2021. So Inari's price-to-sales ratio of 18 makes it a growth stock on sale.\nInari has less than 5% penetrationin the $3.8 billion U.S. market, and there's also lots of room to grow in Europe, where it launched earlier this year. That means there are plenty of opportunities for this $4.5-billion market cap company. While COVID has affected many elective and semi-elective procedures, it has clearly not slowed Inari, and it could even accelerate its uptake.\nNovavax: How high can it go?\nTaylor Carmichael (Novavax): The vaccine biotech Novavax had an amazing 2020, with its share price running up 2,700% on optimism for its COVID vaccine. While the company has yet to file for an Emergency Use Authorization, it expects to do so in this quarter. So far in 2021, the stock is up 60%.\nNVAX DATA BY YCHARTS.\nPositive phase 3 data for the COVID-19 vaccine sent the stock soaring early in the year, but the share price has come back down to earth as the company has suffered delays getting its vaccine to market. First there was a shortage of raw materials necessary to make the vaccine. Now the company has to prove that its various contract manufacturing facilities will keep the vaccine quality consistent across all the sites.\nDespite these delays, long-term investors have reasons to be bullish. Manufacturing is scaling up, with production rates expected to hit 100 million doses a month by the end of the third quarter, and 150 million doses a month by December. While many people in the U.S. have already been vaccinated, the opportunity in the rest of the world is sizable. Novavax has pre-sold 1.1 billion doses to COVAX (an international vaccine consortium), and has contracted to supply hundreds of millions of doses around the world.\nIn the U.S., the Novavax vaccine might primarily be used as a booster shot for people who have already been vaccinated. \"They may be really the right ones for boosters,\" Dr. Luciana Borio, the acting chief scientist at the F.D.A. from 2015 to 2017, told The New York Times.\nDown the road, Novavax plans on combining its COVID vaccine with its flu vaccine, making aone-shot regimen. While COVID does not mutate as quickly as the flu, we've seen several mutating strains over the last year. It's likely that we will need to vaccinate more than once in the years ahead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NARI":0.9,"NVAX":0.9,"PFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804003687,"gmtCreate":1627910827749,"gmtModify":1631892155851,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Don't under estimate the power of Delta","listText":"Don't under estimate the power of Delta","text":"Don't under estimate the power of Delta","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804003687","repostId":"1191539307","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808039979,"gmtCreate":1627541757591,"gmtModify":1631892155854,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"With herd immunity and movement allowed, screen time will be reduce..everyone is looking forward to step out","listText":"With herd immunity and movement allowed, screen time will be reduce..everyone is looking forward to step out","text":"With herd immunity and movement allowed, screen time will be reduce..everyone is looking forward to step out","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808039979","repostId":"2154927641","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":803779278,"gmtCreate":1627468387294,"gmtModify":1631892155858,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stable and not drag by Broad Market&nbsp;","listText":"Stable and not drag by Broad Market&nbsp;","text":"Stable and not drag by Broad Market","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7732bff46f8f82e6da946a8864266f3","width":"1080","height":"3778"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803779278","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177421549,"gmtCreate":1627258407481,"gmtModify":1631892155863,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6 out of 17 is biopharma/medical related... tailwind of&nbsp;covid!","listText":"6 out of 17 is biopharma/medical related... tailwind of&nbsp;covid!","text":"6 out of 17 is biopharma/medical related... tailwind of covid!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177421549","repostId":"1118041582","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118041582","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627175995,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118041582?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 09:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: 17 IPOs are coming<blockquote>未来一周美国IPO：17家IPO即将上市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118041582","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"After another week of record activity, the IPO market is expected to remain hot with 17 IPOs schedul","content":"<p>After another week of record activity, the IPO market is expected to remain hot with 17 IPOs scheduled for the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在又一周创纪录的活动之后，IPO市场预计将保持火热，未来一周将有17起IPO。</blockquote></p><p> Long-awaited retail brokerage&nbsp;<b>Robinhood Markets</b>(HOOD) plans to raise $2.2 billion at a $36.8 billion market cap. The company offers a no-commission retail brokerage platform with over 18 million MAUs. Despite triple-digit revenue growth in the 1Q21, the platform is dependent on trading volumes, and the recent retail trading boom may be unsustainable.</p><p><blockquote>期待已久的零售经纪业务<b>罗宾汉市场</b>(HOOD)计划以368亿美元的市值筹集22亿美元。该公司提供无佣金零售经纪平台，月活跃用户数超过1800万。尽管2021年第一季度的收入实现了三位数的增长，但该平台依赖于交易量，最近的零售交易热潮可能难以为继。</blockquote></p><p> Vehicle battery maker&nbsp;<b>Clarios International</b>(BTRY) plans to raise $1.7 billion at a $9.7 billion market cap. The company manufactures low-voltage vehicles batteries globally, stating that it has the number one market position in the Americas and EMEA. Profitable on an EBIT basis, Clarios saw revenue growth accelerate in the 1H FY21 after turning negative in the FY20 due to COVID.</p><p><blockquote>汽车电池制造商<b>Clarios International</b>(BTRY)计划以97亿美元的市值筹集17亿美元。该公司在全球范围内生产低压汽车电池，并表示其在美洲和欧洲、中东和非洲地区拥有第一的市场地位。在息税前利润的基础上，Clarios的收入增长在2020财年因新冠疫情而转为负值后，在2021财年上半年加速。</blockquote></p><p> Altice’s ad-tech platform&nbsp;<b>Teads</b>(TEAD) plans to raise $751 million at a $4.6 billion market cap. Teads operates a cloud-based programmatic digital advertising platform for advertisers and publishers. Profitable with solid growth, Teads provides monetization services to about 3,100 publishers.</p><p><blockquote>Altice的广告技术平台<b>Teads</b>(TEAD)计划以46亿美元的市值筹集7.51亿美元。Teads为广告商和出版商运营一个基于云的程序化数字广告平台。Teads盈利稳健增长，为约3,100家出版商提供货币化服务。</blockquote></p><p> Education software provider&nbsp;<b>PowerSchool Holdings</b>(PWSC) plans to raise $750 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. The company provides an education platform for teachers to manage classroom activities such as collecting work and grading assignments. Serving over 12,000 customers in over 90 countries globally, PowerSchool turned profitable on a net income basis in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>教育软件提供商<b>动力学校控股</b>(PWSC)计划以37亿美元的市值筹集7.5亿美元。该公司为教师提供了一个教育平台，用于管理课堂活动，如收集作业和评分作业。PowerSchool为全球90多个国家的12,000多名客户提供服务，在2021年第一季度实现了净利润盈利。</blockquote></p><p> After withdrawing its IPO attempt in 2018,<b>Dole</b>(DOLE) plans to raise $559 million at a $2.0 billion market cap. This leading fruit and vegetable company offers over 300 products sourced from over 30 countries to over 80 countries globally. Slow growing and profitable, Dole's offering is being made in connection with its merger with Total Produce.</p><p><blockquote>在2018年撤回IPO尝试后，<b>多尔</b>（都乐）计划以20亿美元的市值筹集5.59亿美元。这家领先的水果和蔬菜公司向全球80多个国家提供来自30多个国家的300多种产品。都乐增长缓慢且盈利，其产品是与Total Product合并时推出的。</blockquote></p><p> Language learning platform&nbsp;<b>Duolingo</b>(DUOL) plans to raise $460 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. Duolingo provides an online platform for over 300 million users to learn over 30 new languages. Benefiting from a COVID-related boost in demand, Duolingo posted triple-digit growth in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>语言学习平台<b>多邻国</b>(DUOL)计划以41亿美元的市值筹集4.6亿美元。多邻国为超过3亿用户提供了一个学习30多种新语言的在线平台。受益于与新冠疫情相关的需求增长，多邻国在2020年实现了三位数的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Traeger</b>(COOK) plans to raise $400 million at a $2.2 billion market cap. This company makes premium backyard wood pellet grills with a tech feature, allowing owners to program, monitor, and control their grill through the Traeger app. Traeger is a category leader of the wood pellet grill, growing revenue at a 28% CAGR from 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote><b>特雷格</b>（库克）计划以22亿美元的市值筹集4亿美元。这家公司生产具有技术功能的优质后院木质颗粒烤架，允许业主通过Traeger应用程序对他们的烤架进行编程、监控和控制。Traeger是木质颗粒烤架的类别领导者，从2017年到2020年，收入以28%的CAGR增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israeli anti-fraud firm&nbsp;<b>Riskified</b>(RSKD) plans to raise $333 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. This company provides e-commerce fraud protection for enterprises. Growing but unprofitable, Riskified saw its free cash flow swing positive in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>以色列反欺诈公司<b>风险化</b>(RSKD)计划以31亿美元的市值筹集3.33亿美元。这家公司为企业提供电子商务欺诈保护。Riskified不断增长但尚未盈利，其自由现金流在2021年第一季度上转为正值。</blockquote></p><p> Financial software provider&nbsp;<b>MeridianLink</b>(MLNK) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. MeridianLink offers a cloud-based digital lending and account opening platform for mid-market community banks and credit unions. Although business is cyclical, the company saw double-digit organic growth in the FY20 due to strong mortgage activity.</p><p><blockquote>财务软件提供商<b>子午线链接</b>(MLNK)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集3亿美元。MeridianLink为中端市场社区银行和信用合作社提供基于云的数字借贷和开户平台。尽管业务具有周期性，但由于强劲的抵押贷款活动，该公司在2020财年实现了两位数的有机增长。</blockquote></p><p> Smart home integration system&nbsp;<b>Snap One Holdings</b>(SNPO) plans to raise $270 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. This company provides smart home technology products to over 16,000 professional integrators. Snap One has demonstrated solid growth and was profitable on an EBIT basis in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>智能家居集成系统<b>Snap一号控股</b>(SNPO)计划以15亿美元的市值筹集2.7亿美元。该公司为超过16,000家专业集成商提供智能家居技术产品。Snap一号表现出稳健的增长，并在2021年第一季度按息税前利润计算实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Specialty funding solutions provider&nbsp;<b>Preston Hollow Community Capital</b>(PHCC) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. This company is a market leader in providing specialized impact financing solutions for projects of significant social and economic importance to local communities in the US. It serves a variety of areas, including infrastructure, education, healthcare, and housing.</p><p><blockquote>专业融资解决方案提供商<b>普雷斯顿霍洛社区资本</b>(PHCC)计划以23亿美元的市值筹集2亿美元。该公司是为对美国当地社区具有重大社会和经济重要性的项目提供专业影响力融资解决方案的市场领导者。它服务于各种领域，包括基础设施、教育、医疗保健和住房。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccine biotech&nbsp;<b>Icosavax</b>(ICVX) plans to raise $150 million at a $590 million market cap. This clinical stage biotech is initially focused on developing vaccines against infectious respiratory diseases using its virus-like particle platform technology. Its most advanced candidate is currently in a Phase 1/2 trial for SARS-CoV-2.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗生物技术<b>Icosavax</b>(ICVX)计划以5.9亿美元的市值筹集1.5亿美元。这一临床阶段的生物技术最初专注于利用其病毒样颗粒平台技术开发针对传染性呼吸道疾病的疫苗。其最先进的候选药物目前正处于新型冠状病毒病的1/2期试验中。</blockquote></p><p> Cancer biotech&nbsp;<b>Candel Therapeutics</b>(CADL) plans to raise $85 million at a $398 million market cap. Candel's most advanced candidate is currently in a Phase 3 trial in combination with prodrug valacyclovir for newly diagnosed localized prostate cancer with an intermediate or high-risk for progression. The company expects to complete enrollment in the 3Q21 with a final data readout in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>癌症生物技术<b>坎德尔治疗公司</b>(CADL)计划以3.98亿美元的市值筹集8500万美元。Candel最先进的候选药物目前正在与前药伐昔洛韦联合治疗新诊断的中度或高风险进展的局限性前列腺癌的3期试验中。该公司预计将在2024年完成2021年第三季度的注册并公布最终数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Rare disease biotech&nbsp;<b>Rallybio</b>(RLYB) plans to raise $81 million at a $465 million market cap. This clinical stage biotech is developing antibody therapies for rare diseases. Its lead program is currently being evaluated to treat fetal and neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia in a Phase 1/2 trial.</p><p><blockquote>罕见病生物技术<b>拉利比奥</b>(RLYB)计划以4.65亿美元的市值筹集8100万美元。这一临床阶段的生物技术正在开发罕见疾病的抗体疗法。其主导项目目前正在1/2期试验中评估治疗胎儿和新生儿同种免疫性血小板减少症。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ocean Biomedical</b>(OCEA) plans to raise $50 million at a $506 million market cap. The company is currently pursuing preclinical programs in oncology, fibrosis, infectious disease, and inflammation that have been licensed directly or indirectly from Brown University, Stanford University, and Rhode Island Hospital.</p><p><blockquote><b>海洋生物医学</b>(OCEA)计划以5.06亿美元的市值筹集5000万美元。该公司目前正在开展肿瘤学、纤维化、传染病和炎症方面的临床前项目，这些项目已直接或间接获得布朗大学、斯坦福大学和罗德岛医院的许可。</blockquote></p><p> After postponing in November 2020,<b>IN8bio</b>(INAB) plans to raise $44 million at a $215 million market cap. This Phase 1 biotech is developing allogeneic gamma-delta T cell therapies to treat solid tumors. Although gamma-delta T cells could potentially treat solid tumors, the company is very early stage and has dosed a limited number of patients.</p><p><blockquote>2020年11月延期后，<b>IN8bio</b>(INAB)计划以2.15亿美元的市值筹集4400万美元。这家1期生物技术公司正在开发同种异体γ-δ T细胞疗法来治疗实体瘤。尽管γ-δ T细胞有可能治疗实体瘤，但该公司还处于非常早期的阶段，并且仅为有限数量的患者提供了剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Female cancer biotech&nbsp;<b>Context Therapeutics</b>(CNTX) plans to raise $20 million at a $93 million market cap. Context is developing treatments for female cancers, such as breast, ovarian, and endometrial cancer. The company’s lead candidate is currently in Phase 2 trials for ovarian and endometrial cancer, with preliminary results expected in the 2H21 and the 1H22.</p><p><blockquote>女性癌症生物技术<b>情境疗法</b>(CNTX)计划以9300万美元的市值筹集2000万美元。背景是开发女性癌症的治疗方法，如乳腺癌、卵巢癌和子宫内膜癌。该公司的主要候选药物目前正处于卵巢癌和子宫内膜癌的2期试验中，预计将于21年下半年和22年上半年获得初步结果。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b38a8af5f92621b2633830553616b5d\" tg-width=\"1271\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5faec597a337345b21c846808295821d\" tg-width=\"1272\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021cc62ff4eaabd0b6a7dee91fc0d63e\" tg-width=\"1270\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 7/22/2021, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 1.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 16.3%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 3.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 8.1%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include EQT Partners and Smoore International.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年7月22日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今下跌1.0%，而标普500上涨16.3%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌3.0%，而ACWX指数上涨8.1%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括EQT Partners和思摩尔国际。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: 17 IPOs are coming<blockquote>未来一周美国IPO：17家IPO即将上市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: 17 IPOs are coming<blockquote>未来一周美国IPO：17家IPO即将上市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 09:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After another week of record activity, the IPO market is expected to remain hot with 17 IPOs scheduled for the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在又一周创纪录的活动之后，IPO市场预计将保持火热，未来一周将有17起IPO。</blockquote></p><p> Long-awaited retail brokerage&nbsp;<b>Robinhood Markets</b>(HOOD) plans to raise $2.2 billion at a $36.8 billion market cap. The company offers a no-commission retail brokerage platform with over 18 million MAUs. Despite triple-digit revenue growth in the 1Q21, the platform is dependent on trading volumes, and the recent retail trading boom may be unsustainable.</p><p><blockquote>期待已久的零售经纪业务<b>罗宾汉市场</b>(HOOD)计划以368亿美元的市值筹集22亿美元。该公司提供无佣金零售经纪平台，月活跃用户数超过1800万。尽管2021年第一季度的收入实现了三位数的增长，但该平台依赖于交易量，最近的零售交易热潮可能难以为继。</blockquote></p><p> Vehicle battery maker&nbsp;<b>Clarios International</b>(BTRY) plans to raise $1.7 billion at a $9.7 billion market cap. The company manufactures low-voltage vehicles batteries globally, stating that it has the number one market position in the Americas and EMEA. Profitable on an EBIT basis, Clarios saw revenue growth accelerate in the 1H FY21 after turning negative in the FY20 due to COVID.</p><p><blockquote>汽车电池制造商<b>Clarios International</b>(BTRY)计划以97亿美元的市值筹集17亿美元。该公司在全球范围内生产低压汽车电池，并表示其在美洲和欧洲、中东和非洲地区拥有第一的市场地位。在息税前利润的基础上，Clarios的收入增长在2020财年因新冠疫情而转为负值后，在2021财年上半年加速。</blockquote></p><p> Altice’s ad-tech platform&nbsp;<b>Teads</b>(TEAD) plans to raise $751 million at a $4.6 billion market cap. Teads operates a cloud-based programmatic digital advertising platform for advertisers and publishers. Profitable with solid growth, Teads provides monetization services to about 3,100 publishers.</p><p><blockquote>Altice的广告技术平台<b>Teads</b>(TEAD)计划以46亿美元的市值筹集7.51亿美元。Teads为广告商和出版商运营一个基于云的程序化数字广告平台。Teads盈利稳健增长，为约3,100家出版商提供货币化服务。</blockquote></p><p> Education software provider&nbsp;<b>PowerSchool Holdings</b>(PWSC) plans to raise $750 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. The company provides an education platform for teachers to manage classroom activities such as collecting work and grading assignments. Serving over 12,000 customers in over 90 countries globally, PowerSchool turned profitable on a net income basis in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>教育软件提供商<b>动力学校控股</b>(PWSC)计划以37亿美元的市值筹集7.5亿美元。该公司为教师提供了一个教育平台，用于管理课堂活动，如收集作业和评分作业。PowerSchool为全球90多个国家的12,000多名客户提供服务，在2021年第一季度实现了净利润盈利。</blockquote></p><p> After withdrawing its IPO attempt in 2018,<b>Dole</b>(DOLE) plans to raise $559 million at a $2.0 billion market cap. This leading fruit and vegetable company offers over 300 products sourced from over 30 countries to over 80 countries globally. Slow growing and profitable, Dole's offering is being made in connection with its merger with Total Produce.</p><p><blockquote>在2018年撤回IPO尝试后，<b>多尔</b>（都乐）计划以20亿美元的市值筹集5.59亿美元。这家领先的水果和蔬菜公司向全球80多个国家提供来自30多个国家的300多种产品。都乐增长缓慢且盈利，其产品是与Total Product合并时推出的。</blockquote></p><p> Language learning platform&nbsp;<b>Duolingo</b>(DUOL) plans to raise $460 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. Duolingo provides an online platform for over 300 million users to learn over 30 new languages. Benefiting from a COVID-related boost in demand, Duolingo posted triple-digit growth in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>语言学习平台<b>多邻国</b>(DUOL)计划以41亿美元的市值筹集4.6亿美元。多邻国为超过3亿用户提供了一个学习30多种新语言的在线平台。受益于与新冠疫情相关的需求增长，多邻国在2020年实现了三位数的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Traeger</b>(COOK) plans to raise $400 million at a $2.2 billion market cap. This company makes premium backyard wood pellet grills with a tech feature, allowing owners to program, monitor, and control their grill through the Traeger app. Traeger is a category leader of the wood pellet grill, growing revenue at a 28% CAGR from 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote><b>特雷格</b>（库克）计划以22亿美元的市值筹集4亿美元。这家公司生产具有技术功能的优质后院木质颗粒烤架，允许业主通过Traeger应用程序对他们的烤架进行编程、监控和控制。Traeger是木质颗粒烤架的类别领导者，从2017年到2020年，收入以28%的CAGR增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israeli anti-fraud firm&nbsp;<b>Riskified</b>(RSKD) plans to raise $333 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. This company provides e-commerce fraud protection for enterprises. Growing but unprofitable, Riskified saw its free cash flow swing positive in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>以色列反欺诈公司<b>风险化</b>(RSKD)计划以31亿美元的市值筹集3.33亿美元。这家公司为企业提供电子商务欺诈保护。Riskified不断增长但尚未盈利，其自由现金流在2021年第一季度上转为正值。</blockquote></p><p> Financial software provider&nbsp;<b>MeridianLink</b>(MLNK) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. MeridianLink offers a cloud-based digital lending and account opening platform for mid-market community banks and credit unions. Although business is cyclical, the company saw double-digit organic growth in the FY20 due to strong mortgage activity.</p><p><blockquote>财务软件提供商<b>子午线链接</b>(MLNK)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集3亿美元。MeridianLink为中端市场社区银行和信用合作社提供基于云的数字借贷和开户平台。尽管业务具有周期性，但由于强劲的抵押贷款活动，该公司在2020财年实现了两位数的有机增长。</blockquote></p><p> Smart home integration system&nbsp;<b>Snap One Holdings</b>(SNPO) plans to raise $270 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. This company provides smart home technology products to over 16,000 professional integrators. Snap One has demonstrated solid growth and was profitable on an EBIT basis in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>智能家居集成系统<b>Snap一号控股</b>(SNPO)计划以15亿美元的市值筹集2.7亿美元。该公司为超过16,000家专业集成商提供智能家居技术产品。Snap一号表现出稳健的增长，并在2021年第一季度按息税前利润计算实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Specialty funding solutions provider&nbsp;<b>Preston Hollow Community Capital</b>(PHCC) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. This company is a market leader in providing specialized impact financing solutions for projects of significant social and economic importance to local communities in the US. It serves a variety of areas, including infrastructure, education, healthcare, and housing.</p><p><blockquote>专业融资解决方案提供商<b>普雷斯顿霍洛社区资本</b>(PHCC)计划以23亿美元的市值筹集2亿美元。该公司是为对美国当地社区具有重大社会和经济重要性的项目提供专业影响力融资解决方案的市场领导者。它服务于各种领域，包括基础设施、教育、医疗保健和住房。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccine biotech&nbsp;<b>Icosavax</b>(ICVX) plans to raise $150 million at a $590 million market cap. This clinical stage biotech is initially focused on developing vaccines against infectious respiratory diseases using its virus-like particle platform technology. Its most advanced candidate is currently in a Phase 1/2 trial for SARS-CoV-2.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗生物技术<b>Icosavax</b>(ICVX)计划以5.9亿美元的市值筹集1.5亿美元。这一临床阶段的生物技术最初专注于利用其病毒样颗粒平台技术开发针对传染性呼吸道疾病的疫苗。其最先进的候选药物目前正处于新型冠状病毒病的1/2期试验中。</blockquote></p><p> Cancer biotech&nbsp;<b>Candel Therapeutics</b>(CADL) plans to raise $85 million at a $398 million market cap. Candel's most advanced candidate is currently in a Phase 3 trial in combination with prodrug valacyclovir for newly diagnosed localized prostate cancer with an intermediate or high-risk for progression. The company expects to complete enrollment in the 3Q21 with a final data readout in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>癌症生物技术<b>坎德尔治疗公司</b>(CADL)计划以3.98亿美元的市值筹集8500万美元。Candel最先进的候选药物目前正在与前药伐昔洛韦联合治疗新诊断的中度或高风险进展的局限性前列腺癌的3期试验中。该公司预计将在2024年完成2021年第三季度的注册并公布最终数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Rare disease biotech&nbsp;<b>Rallybio</b>(RLYB) plans to raise $81 million at a $465 million market cap. This clinical stage biotech is developing antibody therapies for rare diseases. Its lead program is currently being evaluated to treat fetal and neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia in a Phase 1/2 trial.</p><p><blockquote>罕见病生物技术<b>拉利比奥</b>(RLYB)计划以4.65亿美元的市值筹集8100万美元。这一临床阶段的生物技术正在开发罕见疾病的抗体疗法。其主导项目目前正在1/2期试验中评估治疗胎儿和新生儿同种免疫性血小板减少症。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ocean Biomedical</b>(OCEA) plans to raise $50 million at a $506 million market cap. The company is currently pursuing preclinical programs in oncology, fibrosis, infectious disease, and inflammation that have been licensed directly or indirectly from Brown University, Stanford University, and Rhode Island Hospital.</p><p><blockquote><b>海洋生物医学</b>(OCEA)计划以5.06亿美元的市值筹集5000万美元。该公司目前正在开展肿瘤学、纤维化、传染病和炎症方面的临床前项目，这些项目已直接或间接获得布朗大学、斯坦福大学和罗德岛医院的许可。</blockquote></p><p> After postponing in November 2020,<b>IN8bio</b>(INAB) plans to raise $44 million at a $215 million market cap. This Phase 1 biotech is developing allogeneic gamma-delta T cell therapies to treat solid tumors. Although gamma-delta T cells could potentially treat solid tumors, the company is very early stage and has dosed a limited number of patients.</p><p><blockquote>2020年11月延期后，<b>IN8bio</b>(INAB)计划以2.15亿美元的市值筹集4400万美元。这家1期生物技术公司正在开发同种异体γ-δ T细胞疗法来治疗实体瘤。尽管γ-δ T细胞有可能治疗实体瘤，但该公司还处于非常早期的阶段，并且仅为有限数量的患者提供了剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Female cancer biotech&nbsp;<b>Context Therapeutics</b>(CNTX) plans to raise $20 million at a $93 million market cap. Context is developing treatments for female cancers, such as breast, ovarian, and endometrial cancer. The company’s lead candidate is currently in Phase 2 trials for ovarian and endometrial cancer, with preliminary results expected in the 2H21 and the 1H22.</p><p><blockquote>女性癌症生物技术<b>情境疗法</b>(CNTX)计划以9300万美元的市值筹集2000万美元。背景是开发女性癌症的治疗方法，如乳腺癌、卵巢癌和子宫内膜癌。该公司的主要候选药物目前正处于卵巢癌和子宫内膜癌的2期试验中，预计将于21年下半年和22年上半年获得初步结果。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b38a8af5f92621b2633830553616b5d\" tg-width=\"1271\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5faec597a337345b21c846808295821d\" tg-width=\"1272\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021cc62ff4eaabd0b6a7dee91fc0d63e\" tg-width=\"1270\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 7/22/2021, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 1.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 16.3%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 3.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 8.1%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include EQT Partners and Smoore International.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年7月22日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今下跌1.0%，而标普500上涨16.3%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌3.0%，而ACWX指数上涨8.1%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括EQT Partners和思摩尔国际。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/84600/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Robinhood%E2%80%99s-billion-dollar-deal-headlines-a-17-IPO-week\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNPO":"Snap One Holdings Corp.","RLYB":"Rallybio Corp.","FEOVF":"Oceanic Iron Ore Corp.","ICVX":"Icosavax, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PWSC":"PowerSchool Holdings, Inc.","CNTX":"Context Therapeutics Inc.","TEAD":"Teads Holding","RSKD":"Riskified Ltd.","DUOL":"多邻国","CADLF":"CADELER AS","HOOD":"Robinhood","COOK":"Traeger Inc. (TGPX Holdings I LLC)",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","MLNK":"MeridianLink, Inc. (ex-Project Angel Parent, LLC)","INAB":"IN8bio, Inc.","DOLE":"都乐食品"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/84600/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Robinhood%E2%80%99s-billion-dollar-deal-headlines-a-17-IPO-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118041582","content_text":"After another week of record activity, the IPO market is expected to remain hot with 17 IPOs scheduled for the week ahead.\nLong-awaited retail brokerage Robinhood Markets(HOOD) plans to raise $2.2 billion at a $36.8 billion market cap. The company offers a no-commission retail brokerage platform with over 18 million MAUs. Despite triple-digit revenue growth in the 1Q21, the platform is dependent on trading volumes, and the recent retail trading boom may be unsustainable.\nVehicle battery maker Clarios International(BTRY) plans to raise $1.7 billion at a $9.7 billion market cap. The company manufactures low-voltage vehicles batteries globally, stating that it has the number one market position in the Americas and EMEA. Profitable on an EBIT basis, Clarios saw revenue growth accelerate in the 1H FY21 after turning negative in the FY20 due to COVID.\nAltice’s ad-tech platform Teads(TEAD) plans to raise $751 million at a $4.6 billion market cap. Teads operates a cloud-based programmatic digital advertising platform for advertisers and publishers. Profitable with solid growth, Teads provides monetization services to about 3,100 publishers.\nEducation software provider PowerSchool Holdings(PWSC) plans to raise $750 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. The company provides an education platform for teachers to manage classroom activities such as collecting work and grading assignments. Serving over 12,000 customers in over 90 countries globally, PowerSchool turned profitable on a net income basis in the 1Q21.\nAfter withdrawing its IPO attempt in 2018,Dole(DOLE) plans to raise $559 million at a $2.0 billion market cap. This leading fruit and vegetable company offers over 300 products sourced from over 30 countries to over 80 countries globally. Slow growing and profitable, Dole's offering is being made in connection with its merger with Total Produce.\nLanguage learning platform Duolingo(DUOL) plans to raise $460 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. Duolingo provides an online platform for over 300 million users to learn over 30 new languages. Benefiting from a COVID-related boost in demand, Duolingo posted triple-digit growth in 2020.\nTraeger(COOK) plans to raise $400 million at a $2.2 billion market cap. This company makes premium backyard wood pellet grills with a tech feature, allowing owners to program, monitor, and control their grill through the Traeger app. Traeger is a category leader of the wood pellet grill, growing revenue at a 28% CAGR from 2017 to 2020.\nIsraeli anti-fraud firm Riskified(RSKD) plans to raise $333 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. This company provides e-commerce fraud protection for enterprises. Growing but unprofitable, Riskified saw its free cash flow swing positive in the 1Q21.\nFinancial software provider MeridianLink(MLNK) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. MeridianLink offers a cloud-based digital lending and account opening platform for mid-market community banks and credit unions. Although business is cyclical, the company saw double-digit organic growth in the FY20 due to strong mortgage activity.\nSmart home integration system Snap One Holdings(SNPO) plans to raise $270 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. This company provides smart home technology products to over 16,000 professional integrators. Snap One has demonstrated solid growth and was profitable on an EBIT basis in the 1Q21.\nSpecialty funding solutions provider Preston Hollow Community Capital(PHCC) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. This company is a market leader in providing specialized impact financing solutions for projects of significant social and economic importance to local communities in the US. It serves a variety of areas, including infrastructure, education, healthcare, and housing.\nVaccine biotech Icosavax(ICVX) plans to raise $150 million at a $590 million market cap. This clinical stage biotech is initially focused on developing vaccines against infectious respiratory diseases using its virus-like particle platform technology. Its most advanced candidate is currently in a Phase 1/2 trial for SARS-CoV-2.\nCancer biotech Candel Therapeutics(CADL) plans to raise $85 million at a $398 million market cap. Candel's most advanced candidate is currently in a Phase 3 trial in combination with prodrug valacyclovir for newly diagnosed localized prostate cancer with an intermediate or high-risk for progression. The company expects to complete enrollment in the 3Q21 with a final data readout in 2024.\nRare disease biotech Rallybio(RLYB) plans to raise $81 million at a $465 million market cap. This clinical stage biotech is developing antibody therapies for rare diseases. Its lead program is currently being evaluated to treat fetal and neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia in a Phase 1/2 trial.\nOcean Biomedical(OCEA) plans to raise $50 million at a $506 million market cap. The company is currently pursuing preclinical programs in oncology, fibrosis, infectious disease, and inflammation that have been licensed directly or indirectly from Brown University, Stanford University, and Rhode Island Hospital.\nAfter postponing in November 2020,IN8bio(INAB) plans to raise $44 million at a $215 million market cap. This Phase 1 biotech is developing allogeneic gamma-delta T cell therapies to treat solid tumors. Although gamma-delta T cells could potentially treat solid tumors, the company is very early stage and has dosed a limited number of patients.\nFemale cancer biotech Context Therapeutics(CNTX) plans to raise $20 million at a $93 million market cap. Context is developing treatments for female cancers, such as breast, ovarian, and endometrial cancer. The company’s lead candidate is currently in Phase 2 trials for ovarian and endometrial cancer, with preliminary results expected in the 2H21 and the 1H22.\n\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 7/22/2021, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 1.0% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 16.3%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 3.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 8.1%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include EQT Partners and Smoore International.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RSKD":0.9,"DUOL":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DOLE":0.9,"PWSC":0.9,"RLYB":0.9,"MLNK":0.9,"FEOVF":0.9,"PHCC":0.9,"COOK":0.9,"CNTX":0.9,"CADLF":0.9,"BTRY":0.9,"TEAD":0.9,"HOOD":0.9,"SNPO":0.9,"INAB":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ICVX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177481454,"gmtCreate":1627257652978,"gmtModify":1631892155864,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Busy week ..looks like volatility will be high","listText":"Busy week ..looks like volatility will be high","text":"Busy week ..looks like volatility will be high","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177481454","repostId":"1100772026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144136942,"gmtCreate":1626271123686,"gmtModify":1631892155869,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Standby bullets","listText":"Standby bullets","text":"Standby bullets","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144136942","repostId":"1160878205","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144028758,"gmtCreate":1626255225974,"gmtModify":1633928599020,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good ..... vested up up up","listText":"Good ..... vested up up up","text":"Good ..... vested up up up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144028758","repostId":"1158281742","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158281742","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626249848,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158281742?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.<blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨近1%。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158281742","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Apple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.\nApple Inc. has asked suppliers to build as many a","content":"<p>Apple&nbsp;shares rises nearly&nbsp;1% in premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨近1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35d519e7b8520bdf005ef08215187349\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Apple Inc. has asked suppliers to build as many as 90 million next-generation iPhones this year, a sharp increase from its 2020 iPhone shipments, according to people with knowledge of the matter.</p><p><blockquote>据知情人士透露，苹果公司已要求供应商今年生产多达9000万部下一代iPhone，较其2020年iPhone出货量大幅增加。</blockquote></p><p> The Cupertino, California-based tech giant has maintained a consistent level in recent years of roughly 75 million units for the initial run from a device’s launch through the end of the year. The upgraded forecast for 2021 would suggest the company anticipates its first iPhone launch since the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines will unlock additional demand. The next iPhones will be Apple’s second with 5G, a key enticement pushing users to upgrade.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的科技巨头近年来一直保持着从设备推出到年底的首次运行约7500万台的稳定水平。升级后的2021年预测表明，该公司预计将首次推出iPhone，因为新冠肺炎疫苗的推出将释放额外的需求。下一代iPhone将是苹果的第二款5G手机，这是推动用户升级的关键诱惑。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.<blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨近1%。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.<blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨近1%。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-14 16:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple&nbsp;shares rises nearly&nbsp;1% in premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在盘前交易中上涨近1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35d519e7b8520bdf005ef08215187349\" tg-width=\"1290\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Apple Inc. has asked suppliers to build as many as 90 million next-generation iPhones this year, a sharp increase from its 2020 iPhone shipments, according to people with knowledge of the matter.</p><p><blockquote>据知情人士透露，苹果公司已要求供应商今年生产多达9000万部下一代iPhone，较其2020年iPhone出货量大幅增加。</blockquote></p><p> The Cupertino, California-based tech giant has maintained a consistent level in recent years of roughly 75 million units for the initial run from a device’s launch through the end of the year. The upgraded forecast for 2021 would suggest the company anticipates its first iPhone launch since the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines will unlock additional demand. The next iPhones will be Apple’s second with 5G, a key enticement pushing users to upgrade.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的科技巨头近年来一直保持着从设备推出到年底的首次运行约7500万台的稳定水平。升级后的2021年预测表明，该公司预计将首次推出iPhone，因为新冠肺炎疫苗的推出将释放额外的需求。下一代iPhone将是苹果的第二款5G手机，这是推动用户升级的关键诱惑。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158281742","content_text":"Apple shares rises nearly 1% in premarket trading.\nApple Inc. has asked suppliers to build as many as 90 million next-generation iPhones this year, a sharp increase from its 2020 iPhone shipments, according to people with knowledge of the matter.\nThe Cupertino, California-based tech giant has maintained a consistent level in recent years of roughly 75 million units for the initial run from a device’s launch through the end of the year. The upgraded forecast for 2021 would suggest the company anticipates its first iPhone launch since the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines will unlock additional demand. The next iPhones will be Apple’s second with 5G, a key enticement pushing users to upgrade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145330975,"gmtCreate":1626188995397,"gmtModify":1633929208917,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145330975","repostId":"1128855782","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145395477,"gmtCreate":1626188877299,"gmtModify":1633929210306,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145395477","repostId":"2151561465","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142519241,"gmtCreate":1626160492783,"gmtModify":1631883982784,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So volatile, bad news and good news one after another","listText":"So volatile, bad news and good news one after another","text":"So volatile, bad news and good news one after another","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142519241","repostId":"1161696324","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":831038307,"gmtCreate":1629271652709,"gmtModify":1631885409381,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tepper sell mostly FAANG counter and adding Uber ..... holding cash or&nbsp;expecting buy in dip!","listText":"Tepper sell mostly FAANG counter and adding Uber ..... holding cash or&nbsp;expecting buy in dip!","text":"Tepper sell mostly FAANG counter and adding Uber ..... holding cash or expecting buy in dip!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831038307","repostId":"1137059057","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3020,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807727668,"gmtCreate":1628060748754,"gmtModify":1631892155849,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Vaccine follow by booster.... then booster combine w flu med ...how many vaccine a human need!","listText":"Vaccine follow by booster.... then booster combine w flu med ...how many vaccine a human need!","text":"Vaccine follow by booster.... then booster combine w flu med ...how many vaccine a human need!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807727668","repostId":"1124757232","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124757232","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628045612,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1124757232?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 10:53","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 COVID Stocks That Could Soar Higher<blockquote>3只可能飙升的新冠股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124757232","media":"The Motley Fool","summary":"Here's why Pfizer, Inari Medical, and Novavax shares might be more valuable in 2021.\nKey Points\n\nPfi","content":"<p><b><i>Here's why Pfizer, Inari Medical, and Novavax shares might be more valuable in 2021.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>这就是为什么辉瑞、Inari Medical和Novavax的股票在2021年可能更有价值。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Pfizer might surprise to the upside.</li>  <li>Inari Medical is growing like gangbusters.</li>  <li>Novavax's vaccine might be an important booster shot as the COVID-19 virus mutates.</li> </ul> COVID-19 and the international lockdown crashed the world economy in 2020. Many people have already been vaccinated and are looking forward to normalization. But COVID is mutating, and the new delta variant might toss a wrench into the world's reopening. How might investors protect themselves?</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>辉瑞可能会带来惊喜。</li><li>伊那里医疗公司正在飞速发展。</li><li>随着COVID-19病毒的变异，Novavax的疫苗可能是一剂重要的加强针。</li></ul>2020年，新冠肺炎和国际封锁导致世界经济崩溃。许多人已经接种了疫苗，并期待正常化。但COVID正在变异，新的德尔塔变异毒株可能会给世界的重新开放带来麻烦。投资者如何保护自己？</blockquote></p><p> A panel of Motley Fool contributors offers three ideas for healthcare stocks that will zoom higher in 2021, even if COVID takes a turn for the worse. Read more to see why you might want to buy shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a></b>,&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NARI\">Inari Medical, Inc.</a></b>, and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool撰稿人小组为医疗保健股提供了三个想法，即使新冠疫情形势恶化，这些股票也将在2021年飙升。阅读更多内容，了解为什么您可能想购买<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a></b>, <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NARI\">伊那里医疗公司。</a></b>，和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>.</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ed6a343e35e121aafbaa2b30134955\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Pfizer: More room to run</b></h3> <b>George Budwell</b>&nbsp;<b>(Pfizer):</b>&nbsp;American pharma titan Pfizer might not sound like a sexy pick among the present cohort of COVID vaccine players. Wall Street's current consensus has Comirnaty, the drugmaker's vaccine -- produced in partnership with&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a>&nbsp;-- losing steam from a sales perspective starting in 2022.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>辉瑞：更多运行空间</b></h3><b>乔治·布德维尔</b> <b>（辉瑞）：</b>在目前的新冠疫苗公司中，美国制药巨头辉瑞听起来可能不是一个性感的选择。华尔街目前的共识是制药商Comirnaty的疫苗——与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a>——从2022年开始，从销售角度来看失去动力。</blockquote></p><p> Because of the delta variant, however, Comirnaty's commercial life could turn out to be much longer than originally expected. And while the emergence of the highly transmissible variant is obviously terrible news for society at large, Pfizer and its shareholders are probably going to benefit from this unfortunate development.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于德尔塔变异毒株，Comirnaty的商业寿命可能会比最初预期的长得多。虽然高传播变种的出现对整个社会来说显然是个坏消息，但辉瑞及其股东可能会从这一不幸的发展中受益。</blockquote></p><p> There are two clear reasons to think that Pfizer's stock could move higher on the delta issue. First and foremost, the company&nbsp;announced&nbsp;that an Emergency Use Authorization submission for a booster third shot might happen as soon as this month. Second, Pfizer plans to start clinical trials for a delta-specific version of the vaccine this month.</p><p><blockquote>有两个明显的理由认为辉瑞的股价可能会因达美航空问题而走高。首先，该公司宣布，最早可能在本月提交第三次加强注射的紧急使用授权。其次，辉瑞计划本月启动德尔塔特异性版本疫苗的临床试验。</blockquote></p><p> Although the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have both recently downplayed the need for booster shots, Pfizer has already put forth a compelling case for a third jab in response to the rampant spread of the delta variant and the waning efficacy of Comirnaty 6 to 12 months following full vaccination.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国食品药品监督管理局和疾病控制与预防中心最近都淡化了加强注射的必要性，但辉瑞已经提出了第三次注射的令人信服的理由，以应对德尔塔变异毒株的猖獗传播和Comirnaty在完全接种疫苗后6至12个月的疗效减弱。</blockquote></p><p> The big picture for investors is that Pfizer's 2022 revenue might jump by as much as 9.7% compared to 2021 -- that is, if a booster shot is indeed approved and the company also successfully develops a delta-specific vaccine. By contrast, Wall Street currently has the drugmaker's top line falling by 14.8% next year relative to 2021.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，总体情况是，辉瑞2022年的收入可能比2021年增长9.7%——也就是说，如果加强注射确实获得批准，并且该公司还成功开发了delta特异性疫苗。相比之下，华尔街目前预计该制药商明年的营收将比2021年下降14.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Where is Pfizer's stock possibly headed? If all the pieces fall into place on the vaccine front, shares ought to command a $50 handle, from a conservative standpoint. That's roughly a 17% upswing from where the drugmaker's shares presently stand, and that's not even accounting for the company's attractive 3.64% dividend yield at current levels. Put simply, Pfizer's stock would only be trading at approximately 3.5 times 2022 sales if this scenario pans out, which is a rather modest valuation for a&nbsp;dividend-paying&nbsp;big pharma stock.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞的股票可能走向何方？从保守的角度来看，如果疫苗方面的所有部分都到位，股价应该会达到50美元。这比该制药商的股价目前上涨了大约17%，甚至还没有考虑到该公司当前水平上颇具吸引力的3.64%股息收益率。简而言之，如果这种情况实现，辉瑞的股票交易价格将仅为2022年销售额的约3.5倍，对于派息的大型制药股来说，这是一个相当适中的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Inari Medical: Skyrocketing Sales</b></h3> <b>Patrick Bafuma</b>&nbsp;<b>(Inari Medical):</b>&nbsp;If you are looking for a stock with staying power after tailwinds from the pandemic subside, look to Inari Medical. There were 108,000 new COVID cases on July 27, 2021 -- the most since February 5, 2021, according to&nbsp;<i>The New York Times</i>&nbsp;-- and that number was up over eight times the seven-day average at the start of July. To make things even worse, COVID not only causes difficulty breathing but also more than triples a patient's risk of disabling and potentially life-threatening blood clots. And we're still not sure if being vaccinated fully mitigates the risk of blood clots when a patient has an asymptomatic or a mild COVID infection.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>伊那里医疗：销售额暴涨</b></h3><b>帕特里克·巴富马</b> <b>（伊那里医疗）：</b>如果您正在寻找一只在大流行的顺风消退后具有持久力的股票，请关注伊那里医疗。数据显示，2021年7月27日新增108,000例新冠病例，为2021年2月5日以来最多<i>纽约时报</i>——这个数字是7月初7天平均水平的八倍多。更糟糕的是，COVID不仅会导致呼吸困难，还会使患者患致残和可能危及生命的血栓的风险增加两倍以上。我们仍然不确定当患者无症状或轻度COVID感染时，接种疫苗是否能完全降低血栓的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> This seems like a good setup for a commercial-stage med-tech company that has developed minimally invasive products designed to remove large blood clots without the need for powerful clot-busting drugs. Through the use of its ClotTriever and FlowTriever devices, Inari has treated over 25,000 patients so far. Clinicians performed approximately 5,500 procedures with the company's devices in the first quarter of 2021,&nbsp;up 130% from the same quarter last year&nbsp;and about 20% higher than the fourth quarter of 2020. With about 12% of admitted COVID patients developing blood clots, and about 35,000 COVID hospitalizations in the U.S. (and rising) as of July 27, according to<i>The Times</i>, Inari is likely to see an uptick in eligible cases.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家商业阶段的医疗技术公司来说，这似乎是一个很好的设置，该公司开发了微创产品，旨在消除大血凝块，而不需要强大的血栓破坏药物。通过使用ClotTriever和FlowTriever设备，伊那里迄今已治疗了25,000多名患者。2021年第一季度，临床医生使用该公司的设备进行了约5,500次手术，比去年同季度增长130%，比2020年第四季度增长约20%。根据数据，截至7月27日，美国约有12%的新冠肺炎患者出现血栓，约有35,000人因新冠肺炎住院（并且还在增加）<i>纽约时报</i>，伊那里可能会看到符合条件的病例增加。</blockquote></p><p> Not to mention the company's results thus far for blood clots in the lung are spectacular:</p><p><blockquote>更不用说该公司迄今为止在肺部血栓方面的结果非常惊人：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>With the historic 30-day mortality rate of intermediate and high-risk blood clots in the lungs at 9.7%, Inari's 0.4% 30-day mortality rate is impressive.</li>  <li>There's a decreased 30-day readmission rate of 6.7% versus 24.4% with the usual care.</li>  <li>Major adverse events within 48 hours occur at only a 1.3% rate.</li>  <li>No ICU stays are required after the procedure.</li> </ul> Add it all up, and Inari's retrieval device seems like an obvious choice.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于肺部中高风险血栓的历史30天死亡率为9.7%，伊那里0.4%的30天死亡率令人印象深刻。</li><li>30天再入院率降低了6.7%，而常规护理为24.4%。</li><li>48小时内的主要不良事件发生率仅为1.3%。</li><li>手术后不需要住ICU。</li></ul>所有这些加起来，伊那里的检索设备似乎是一个显而易见的选择。</blockquote></p><p> The company grew first-quarter revenue at 113% year over year, and&nbsp;18% sequentially, and had gross margins of 91.9% for the first quarter of 2021. So Inari's price-to-sales ratio of 18 makes it a growth stock on sale.</p><p><blockquote>该公司第一季度收入同比增长113%，环比增长18%，2021年第一季度毛利率为91.9%。因此，伊那里的市销率为18，使其成为一只正在出售的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> Inari has&nbsp;less than 5% penetrationin the $3.8 billion U.S. market, and there's also lots of room to grow in Europe, where it launched earlier this year. That means there are plenty of opportunities for this $4.5-billion market cap company. While COVID has affected many elective and semi-elective procedures, it has clearly not slowed Inari, and it could even accelerate its uptake.</p><p><blockquote>Inari在价值38亿美元的美国市场的渗透率不到5%，今年早些时候在欧洲推出的市场也有很大的增长空间。这意味着这家市值45亿美元的公司有很多机会。虽然COVID影响了许多选择性和半选择性程序，但它显然没有减缓伊那里，甚至可能加速其吸收。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Novavax: How high can it go?</b></h3> <b>Taylor Carmichael</b>&nbsp;<b>(Novavax):</b>&nbsp;The vaccine&nbsp;biotech&nbsp;Novavax had an amazing 2020, with its share price running up&nbsp;2,700%&nbsp;on optimism for its COVID vaccine. While the company has yet to file for an Emergency Use Authorization, it expects to do so in this quarter. So far in 2021, the stock is up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>Novavax：能涨到多高？</b></h3><b>泰勒·卡迈克尔</b> <b>（诺瓦瓦克斯）：</b>疫苗生物技术公司Novavax在2020年表现出色，由于对其COVID疫苗的乐观情绪，其股价上涨了2700%。虽然该公司尚未申请紧急使用授权，但预计将在本季度申请。2021年迄今为止，该股已上涨60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7829d99a76c48579ba01c6e55fe14f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NVAX DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的NVAX数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Positive phase 3 data for the COVID-19 vaccine sent the stock soaring early in the year, but the share price has come back down to earth as the company has suffered delays getting its vaccine to market. First there was a shortage of raw materials necessary to make the vaccine. Now the company has to prove that its various contract manufacturing facilities will keep the vaccine quality consistent across all the sites.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19疫苗第三阶段的积极数据导致该股在今年年初飙升，但由于该公司的疫苗上市延迟，股价已经回落。首先，制造疫苗所需的原材料短缺。现在，该公司必须证明其各种合同生产设施将保持所有地点的疫苗质量一致。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these delays, long-term investors have reasons to be bullish. Manufacturing is scaling up, with production rates expected to hit 100 million doses a month by the end of the third quarter, and 150 million doses a month by December. While many people in the U.S. have already been vaccinated, the opportunity in the rest of the world is sizable. Novavax has pre-sold 1.1 billion doses to COVAX (an international vaccine consortium), and has contracted to supply hundreds of millions of doses around the world.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些延迟，但长期投资者有理由看涨。制造业正在扩大规模，预计到第三季度末，生产率将达到每月1亿剂，到12月将达到每月1.5亿剂。虽然美国的许多人已经接种了疫苗，但世界其他地方的机会相当大。Novavax已向COVAX（国际疫苗联盟）预售了11亿剂疫苗，并已签约在全球范围内供应数亿剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> In the U.S., the Novavax vaccine might primarily be used as a&nbsp;booster shot&nbsp;for people who have already been vaccinated. \"They may be really the right ones for boosters,\" Dr. Luciana Borio, the acting chief scientist at the F.D.A. from 2015 to 2017, told&nbsp;<i>The New York Times</i>.</p><p><blockquote>在美国，Novavax疫苗可能主要用于已经接种疫苗的人的加强注射。FDA代理首席科学家露丝安娜·博里奥(Luciana Borio)博士表示：“它们可能确实适合加强剂。”从2015年到2017年，告诉<i>纽约时报</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Down the road, Novavax plans on combining its COVID vaccine with its flu vaccine, making aone-shot regimen. While COVID does not mutate as quickly as the flu, we've seen several mutating strains over the last year. It's likely that we will need to vaccinate more than once in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>未来，Novavax计划将其新冠疫苗与流感疫苗结合起来，形成一种一次性疗法。虽然COVID的变异速度不如流感，但我们在过去一年中已经看到了几种变异毒株。在未来的几年里，我们很可能需要不止一次接种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 COVID Stocks That Could Soar Higher<blockquote>3只可能飙升的新冠股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 COVID Stocks That Could Soar Higher<blockquote>3只可能飙升的新冠股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 10:53</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><i>Here's why Pfizer, Inari Medical, and Novavax shares might be more valuable in 2021.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>这就是为什么辉瑞、Inari Medical和Novavax的股票在2021年可能更有价值。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Pfizer might surprise to the upside.</li>  <li>Inari Medical is growing like gangbusters.</li>  <li>Novavax's vaccine might be an important booster shot as the COVID-19 virus mutates.</li> </ul> COVID-19 and the international lockdown crashed the world economy in 2020. Many people have already been vaccinated and are looking forward to normalization. But COVID is mutating, and the new delta variant might toss a wrench into the world's reopening. How might investors protect themselves?</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>辉瑞可能会带来惊喜。</li><li>伊那里医疗公司正在飞速发展。</li><li>随着COVID-19病毒的变异，Novavax的疫苗可能是一剂重要的加强针。</li></ul>2020年，新冠肺炎和国际封锁导致世界经济崩溃。许多人已经接种了疫苗，并期待正常化。但COVID正在变异，新的德尔塔变异毒株可能会给世界的重新开放带来麻烦。投资者如何保护自己？</blockquote></p><p> A panel of Motley Fool contributors offers three ideas for healthcare stocks that will zoom higher in 2021, even if COVID takes a turn for the worse. Read more to see why you might want to buy shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a></b>,&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NARI\">Inari Medical, Inc.</a></b>, and&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool撰稿人小组为医疗保健股提供了三个想法，即使新冠疫情形势恶化，这些股票也将在2021年飙升。阅读更多内容，了解为什么您可能想购买<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a></b>, <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NARI\">伊那里医疗公司。</a></b>，和<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVAX\">Novavax</a></b>.</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ed6a343e35e121aafbaa2b30134955\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Pfizer: More room to run</b></h3> <b>George Budwell</b>&nbsp;<b>(Pfizer):</b>&nbsp;American pharma titan Pfizer might not sound like a sexy pick among the present cohort of COVID vaccine players. Wall Street's current consensus has Comirnaty, the drugmaker's vaccine -- produced in partnership with&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a>&nbsp;-- losing steam from a sales perspective starting in 2022.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>辉瑞：更多运行空间</b></h3><b>乔治·布德维尔</b> <b>（辉瑞）：</b>在目前的新冠疫苗公司中，美国制药巨头辉瑞听起来可能不是一个性感的选择。华尔街目前的共识是制药商Comirnaty的疫苗——与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BNTX\">BioNTech SE</a>——从2022年开始，从销售角度来看失去动力。</blockquote></p><p> Because of the delta variant, however, Comirnaty's commercial life could turn out to be much longer than originally expected. And while the emergence of the highly transmissible variant is obviously terrible news for society at large, Pfizer and its shareholders are probably going to benefit from this unfortunate development.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于德尔塔变异毒株，Comirnaty的商业寿命可能会比最初预期的长得多。虽然高传播变种的出现对整个社会来说显然是个坏消息，但辉瑞及其股东可能会从这一不幸的发展中受益。</blockquote></p><p> There are two clear reasons to think that Pfizer's stock could move higher on the delta issue. First and foremost, the company&nbsp;announced&nbsp;that an Emergency Use Authorization submission for a booster third shot might happen as soon as this month. Second, Pfizer plans to start clinical trials for a delta-specific version of the vaccine this month.</p><p><blockquote>有两个明显的理由认为辉瑞的股价可能会因达美航空问题而走高。首先，该公司宣布，最早可能在本月提交第三次加强注射的紧急使用授权。其次，辉瑞计划本月启动德尔塔特异性版本疫苗的临床试验。</blockquote></p><p> Although the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have both recently downplayed the need for booster shots, Pfizer has already put forth a compelling case for a third jab in response to the rampant spread of the delta variant and the waning efficacy of Comirnaty 6 to 12 months following full vaccination.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国食品药品监督管理局和疾病控制与预防中心最近都淡化了加强注射的必要性，但辉瑞已经提出了第三次注射的令人信服的理由，以应对德尔塔变异毒株的猖獗传播和Comirnaty在完全接种疫苗后6至12个月的疗效减弱。</blockquote></p><p> The big picture for investors is that Pfizer's 2022 revenue might jump by as much as 9.7% compared to 2021 -- that is, if a booster shot is indeed approved and the company also successfully develops a delta-specific vaccine. By contrast, Wall Street currently has the drugmaker's top line falling by 14.8% next year relative to 2021.</p><p><blockquote>对于投资者来说，总体情况是，辉瑞2022年的收入可能比2021年增长9.7%——也就是说，如果加强注射确实获得批准，并且该公司还成功开发了delta特异性疫苗。相比之下，华尔街目前预计该制药商明年的营收将比2021年下降14.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Where is Pfizer's stock possibly headed? If all the pieces fall into place on the vaccine front, shares ought to command a $50 handle, from a conservative standpoint. That's roughly a 17% upswing from where the drugmaker's shares presently stand, and that's not even accounting for the company's attractive 3.64% dividend yield at current levels. Put simply, Pfizer's stock would only be trading at approximately 3.5 times 2022 sales if this scenario pans out, which is a rather modest valuation for a&nbsp;dividend-paying&nbsp;big pharma stock.</p><p><blockquote>辉瑞的股票可能走向何方？从保守的角度来看，如果疫苗方面的所有部分都到位，股价应该会达到50美元。这比该制药商的股价目前上涨了大约17%，甚至还没有考虑到该公司当前水平上颇具吸引力的3.64%股息收益率。简而言之，如果这种情况实现，辉瑞的股票交易价格将仅为2022年销售额的约3.5倍，对于派息的大型制药股来说，这是一个相当适中的估值。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Inari Medical: Skyrocketing Sales</b></h3> <b>Patrick Bafuma</b>&nbsp;<b>(Inari Medical):</b>&nbsp;If you are looking for a stock with staying power after tailwinds from the pandemic subside, look to Inari Medical. There were 108,000 new COVID cases on July 27, 2021 -- the most since February 5, 2021, according to&nbsp;<i>The New York Times</i>&nbsp;-- and that number was up over eight times the seven-day average at the start of July. To make things even worse, COVID not only causes difficulty breathing but also more than triples a patient's risk of disabling and potentially life-threatening blood clots. And we're still not sure if being vaccinated fully mitigates the risk of blood clots when a patient has an asymptomatic or a mild COVID infection.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>伊那里医疗：销售额暴涨</b></h3><b>帕特里克·巴富马</b> <b>（伊那里医疗）：</b>如果您正在寻找一只在大流行的顺风消退后具有持久力的股票，请关注伊那里医疗。数据显示，2021年7月27日新增108,000例新冠病例，为2021年2月5日以来最多<i>纽约时报</i>——这个数字是7月初7天平均水平的八倍多。更糟糕的是，COVID不仅会导致呼吸困难，还会使患者患致残和可能危及生命的血栓的风险增加两倍以上。我们仍然不确定当患者无症状或轻度COVID感染时，接种疫苗是否能完全降低血栓的风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> This seems like a good setup for a commercial-stage med-tech company that has developed minimally invasive products designed to remove large blood clots without the need for powerful clot-busting drugs. Through the use of its ClotTriever and FlowTriever devices, Inari has treated over 25,000 patients so far. Clinicians performed approximately 5,500 procedures with the company's devices in the first quarter of 2021,&nbsp;up 130% from the same quarter last year&nbsp;and about 20% higher than the fourth quarter of 2020. With about 12% of admitted COVID patients developing blood clots, and about 35,000 COVID hospitalizations in the U.S. (and rising) as of July 27, according to<i>The Times</i>, Inari is likely to see an uptick in eligible cases.</p><p><blockquote>对于一家商业阶段的医疗技术公司来说，这似乎是一个很好的设置，该公司开发了微创产品，旨在消除大血凝块，而不需要强大的血栓破坏药物。通过使用ClotTriever和FlowTriever设备，伊那里迄今已治疗了25,000多名患者。2021年第一季度，临床医生使用该公司的设备进行了约5,500次手术，比去年同季度增长130%，比2020年第四季度增长约20%。根据数据，截至7月27日，美国约有12%的新冠肺炎患者出现血栓，约有35,000人因新冠肺炎住院（并且还在增加）<i>纽约时报</i>，伊那里可能会看到符合条件的病例增加。</blockquote></p><p> Not to mention the company's results thus far for blood clots in the lung are spectacular:</p><p><blockquote>更不用说该公司迄今为止在肺部血栓方面的结果非常惊人：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>With the historic 30-day mortality rate of intermediate and high-risk blood clots in the lungs at 9.7%, Inari's 0.4% 30-day mortality rate is impressive.</li>  <li>There's a decreased 30-day readmission rate of 6.7% versus 24.4% with the usual care.</li>  <li>Major adverse events within 48 hours occur at only a 1.3% rate.</li>  <li>No ICU stays are required after the procedure.</li> </ul> Add it all up, and Inari's retrieval device seems like an obvious choice.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于肺部中高风险血栓的历史30天死亡率为9.7%，伊那里0.4%的30天死亡率令人印象深刻。</li><li>30天再入院率降低了6.7%，而常规护理为24.4%。</li><li>48小时内的主要不良事件发生率仅为1.3%。</li><li>手术后不需要住ICU。</li></ul>所有这些加起来，伊那里的检索设备似乎是一个显而易见的选择。</blockquote></p><p> The company grew first-quarter revenue at 113% year over year, and&nbsp;18% sequentially, and had gross margins of 91.9% for the first quarter of 2021. So Inari's price-to-sales ratio of 18 makes it a growth stock on sale.</p><p><blockquote>该公司第一季度收入同比增长113%，环比增长18%，2021年第一季度毛利率为91.9%。因此，伊那里的市销率为18，使其成为一只正在出售的成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> Inari has&nbsp;less than 5% penetrationin the $3.8 billion U.S. market, and there's also lots of room to grow in Europe, where it launched earlier this year. That means there are plenty of opportunities for this $4.5-billion market cap company. While COVID has affected many elective and semi-elective procedures, it has clearly not slowed Inari, and it could even accelerate its uptake.</p><p><blockquote>Inari在价值38亿美元的美国市场的渗透率不到5%，今年早些时候在欧洲推出的市场也有很大的增长空间。这意味着这家市值45亿美元的公司有很多机会。虽然COVID影响了许多选择性和半选择性程序，但它显然没有减缓伊那里，甚至可能加速其吸收。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Novavax: How high can it go?</b></h3> <b>Taylor Carmichael</b>&nbsp;<b>(Novavax):</b>&nbsp;The vaccine&nbsp;biotech&nbsp;Novavax had an amazing 2020, with its share price running up&nbsp;2,700%&nbsp;on optimism for its COVID vaccine. While the company has yet to file for an Emergency Use Authorization, it expects to do so in this quarter. So far in 2021, the stock is up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>Novavax：能涨到多高？</b></h3><b>泰勒·卡迈克尔</b> <b>（诺瓦瓦克斯）：</b>疫苗生物技术公司Novavax在2020年表现出色，由于对其COVID疫苗的乐观情绪，其股价上涨了2700%。虽然该公司尚未申请紧急使用授权，但预计将在本季度申请。2021年迄今为止，该股已上涨60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e7829d99a76c48579ba01c6e55fe14f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NVAX DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>YCHARTS提供的NVAX数据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Positive phase 3 data for the COVID-19 vaccine sent the stock soaring early in the year, but the share price has come back down to earth as the company has suffered delays getting its vaccine to market. First there was a shortage of raw materials necessary to make the vaccine. Now the company has to prove that its various contract manufacturing facilities will keep the vaccine quality consistent across all the sites.</p><p><blockquote>COVID-19疫苗第三阶段的积极数据导致该股在今年年初飙升，但由于该公司的疫苗上市延迟，股价已经回落。首先，制造疫苗所需的原材料短缺。现在，该公司必须证明其各种合同生产设施将保持所有地点的疫苗质量一致。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these delays, long-term investors have reasons to be bullish. Manufacturing is scaling up, with production rates expected to hit 100 million doses a month by the end of the third quarter, and 150 million doses a month by December. While many people in the U.S. have already been vaccinated, the opportunity in the rest of the world is sizable. Novavax has pre-sold 1.1 billion doses to COVAX (an international vaccine consortium), and has contracted to supply hundreds of millions of doses around the world.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些延迟，但长期投资者有理由看涨。制造业正在扩大规模，预计到第三季度末，生产率将达到每月1亿剂，到12月将达到每月1.5亿剂。虽然美国的许多人已经接种了疫苗，但世界其他地方的机会相当大。Novavax已向COVAX（国际疫苗联盟）预售了11亿剂疫苗，并已签约在全球范围内供应数亿剂疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> In the U.S., the Novavax vaccine might primarily be used as a&nbsp;booster shot&nbsp;for people who have already been vaccinated. \"They may be really the right ones for boosters,\" Dr. Luciana Borio, the acting chief scientist at the F.D.A. from 2015 to 2017, told&nbsp;<i>The New York Times</i>.</p><p><blockquote>在美国，Novavax疫苗可能主要用于已经接种疫苗的人的加强注射。FDA代理首席科学家露丝安娜·博里奥(Luciana Borio)博士表示：“它们可能确实适合加强剂。”从2015年到2017年，告诉<i>纽约时报</i>.</blockquote></p><p> Down the road, Novavax plans on combining its COVID vaccine with its flu vaccine, making aone-shot regimen. While COVID does not mutate as quickly as the flu, we've seen several mutating strains over the last year. It's likely that we will need to vaccinate more than once in the years ahead.</p><p><blockquote>未来，Novavax计划将其新冠疫苗与流感疫苗结合起来，形成一种一次性疗法。虽然COVID的变异速度不如流感，但我们在过去一年中已经看到了几种变异毒株。在未来的几年里，我们很可能需要不止一次接种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/03/3-covid-stocks-that-will-soar-higher/\">The Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVAX":"诺瓦瓦克斯医药","PFE":"辉瑞","NARI":"Inari Medical, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/03/3-covid-stocks-that-will-soar-higher/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124757232","content_text":"Here's why Pfizer, Inari Medical, and Novavax shares might be more valuable in 2021.\nKey Points\n\nPfizer might surprise to the upside.\nInari Medical is growing like gangbusters.\nNovavax's vaccine might be an important booster shot as the COVID-19 virus mutates.\n\nCOVID-19 and the international lockdown crashed the world economy in 2020. Many people have already been vaccinated and are looking forward to normalization. But COVID is mutating, and the new delta variant might toss a wrench into the world's reopening. How might investors protect themselves?\nA panel of Motley Fool contributors offers three ideas for healthcare stocks that will zoom higher in 2021, even if COVID takes a turn for the worse. Read more to see why you might want to buy shares of Pfizer, Inari Medical, Inc., and Novavax.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nPfizer: More room to run\nGeorge Budwell (Pfizer): American pharma titan Pfizer might not sound like a sexy pick among the present cohort of COVID vaccine players. Wall Street's current consensus has Comirnaty, the drugmaker's vaccine -- produced in partnership with BioNTech SE -- losing steam from a sales perspective starting in 2022.\nBecause of the delta variant, however, Comirnaty's commercial life could turn out to be much longer than originally expected. And while the emergence of the highly transmissible variant is obviously terrible news for society at large, Pfizer and its shareholders are probably going to benefit from this unfortunate development.\nThere are two clear reasons to think that Pfizer's stock could move higher on the delta issue. First and foremost, the company announced that an Emergency Use Authorization submission for a booster third shot might happen as soon as this month. Second, Pfizer plans to start clinical trials for a delta-specific version of the vaccine this month.\nAlthough the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have both recently downplayed the need for booster shots, Pfizer has already put forth a compelling case for a third jab in response to the rampant spread of the delta variant and the waning efficacy of Comirnaty 6 to 12 months following full vaccination.\nThe big picture for investors is that Pfizer's 2022 revenue might jump by as much as 9.7% compared to 2021 -- that is, if a booster shot is indeed approved and the company also successfully develops a delta-specific vaccine. By contrast, Wall Street currently has the drugmaker's top line falling by 14.8% next year relative to 2021.\nWhere is Pfizer's stock possibly headed? If all the pieces fall into place on the vaccine front, shares ought to command a $50 handle, from a conservative standpoint. That's roughly a 17% upswing from where the drugmaker's shares presently stand, and that's not even accounting for the company's attractive 3.64% dividend yield at current levels. Put simply, Pfizer's stock would only be trading at approximately 3.5 times 2022 sales if this scenario pans out, which is a rather modest valuation for a dividend-paying big pharma stock.\nInari Medical: Skyrocketing Sales\nPatrick Bafuma (Inari Medical): If you are looking for a stock with staying power after tailwinds from the pandemic subside, look to Inari Medical. There were 108,000 new COVID cases on July 27, 2021 -- the most since February 5, 2021, according to The New York Times -- and that number was up over eight times the seven-day average at the start of July. To make things even worse, COVID not only causes difficulty breathing but also more than triples a patient's risk of disabling and potentially life-threatening blood clots. And we're still not sure if being vaccinated fully mitigates the risk of blood clots when a patient has an asymptomatic or a mild COVID infection.\nThis seems like a good setup for a commercial-stage med-tech company that has developed minimally invasive products designed to remove large blood clots without the need for powerful clot-busting drugs. Through the use of its ClotTriever and FlowTriever devices, Inari has treated over 25,000 patients so far. Clinicians performed approximately 5,500 procedures with the company's devices in the first quarter of 2021, up 130% from the same quarter last year and about 20% higher than the fourth quarter of 2020. With about 12% of admitted COVID patients developing blood clots, and about 35,000 COVID hospitalizations in the U.S. (and rising) as of July 27, according toThe Times, Inari is likely to see an uptick in eligible cases.\nNot to mention the company's results thus far for blood clots in the lung are spectacular:\n\nWith the historic 30-day mortality rate of intermediate and high-risk blood clots in the lungs at 9.7%, Inari's 0.4% 30-day mortality rate is impressive.\nThere's a decreased 30-day readmission rate of 6.7% versus 24.4% with the usual care.\nMajor adverse events within 48 hours occur at only a 1.3% rate.\nNo ICU stays are required after the procedure.\n\nAdd it all up, and Inari's retrieval device seems like an obvious choice.\nThe company grew first-quarter revenue at 113% year over year, and 18% sequentially, and had gross margins of 91.9% for the first quarter of 2021. So Inari's price-to-sales ratio of 18 makes it a growth stock on sale.\nInari has less than 5% penetrationin the $3.8 billion U.S. market, and there's also lots of room to grow in Europe, where it launched earlier this year. That means there are plenty of opportunities for this $4.5-billion market cap company. While COVID has affected many elective and semi-elective procedures, it has clearly not slowed Inari, and it could even accelerate its uptake.\nNovavax: How high can it go?\nTaylor Carmichael (Novavax): The vaccine biotech Novavax had an amazing 2020, with its share price running up 2,700% on optimism for its COVID vaccine. While the company has yet to file for an Emergency Use Authorization, it expects to do so in this quarter. So far in 2021, the stock is up 60%.\nNVAX DATA BY YCHARTS.\nPositive phase 3 data for the COVID-19 vaccine sent the stock soaring early in the year, but the share price has come back down to earth as the company has suffered delays getting its vaccine to market. First there was a shortage of raw materials necessary to make the vaccine. Now the company has to prove that its various contract manufacturing facilities will keep the vaccine quality consistent across all the sites.\nDespite these delays, long-term investors have reasons to be bullish. Manufacturing is scaling up, with production rates expected to hit 100 million doses a month by the end of the third quarter, and 150 million doses a month by December. While many people in the U.S. have already been vaccinated, the opportunity in the rest of the world is sizable. Novavax has pre-sold 1.1 billion doses to COVAX (an international vaccine consortium), and has contracted to supply hundreds of millions of doses around the world.\nIn the U.S., the Novavax vaccine might primarily be used as a booster shot for people who have already been vaccinated. \"They may be really the right ones for boosters,\" Dr. Luciana Borio, the acting chief scientist at the F.D.A. from 2015 to 2017, told The New York Times.\nDown the road, Novavax plans on combining its COVID vaccine with its flu vaccine, making aone-shot regimen. While COVID does not mutate as quickly as the flu, we've seen several mutating strains over the last year. It's likely that we will need to vaccinate more than once in the years ahead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NARI":0.9,"NVAX":0.9,"PFE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1664,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883740875,"gmtCreate":1631276713897,"gmtModify":1631892155839,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"10 to 15% good for buy the dip","listText":"10 to 15% good for buy the dip","text":"10 to 15% good for buy the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883740875","repostId":"2166897344","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898668126,"gmtCreate":1628494048065,"gmtModify":1631892155844,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Too big to move exponentially...this will be long term investment","listText":"Too big to move exponentially...this will be long term investment","text":"Too big to move exponentially...this will be long term investment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898668126","repostId":"2157492988","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808039979,"gmtCreate":1627541757591,"gmtModify":1631892155854,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"With herd immunity and movement allowed, screen time will be reduce..everyone is looking forward to step out","listText":"With herd immunity and movement allowed, screen time will be reduce..everyone is looking forward to step out","text":"With herd immunity and movement allowed, screen time will be reduce..everyone is looking forward to step out","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808039979","repostId":"2154927641","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142519241,"gmtCreate":1626160492783,"gmtModify":1631883982784,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So volatile, bad news and good news one after another","listText":"So volatile, bad news and good news one after another","text":"So volatile, bad news and good news one after another","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142519241","repostId":"1161696324","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146382841,"gmtCreate":1626054027883,"gmtModify":1633930617685,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"looking forward&nbsp;","listText":"looking forward&nbsp;","text":"looking forward","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146382841","repostId":"1114863871","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835854435,"gmtCreate":1629706484927,"gmtModify":1631892155842,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"BRK &amp; SE .... the least also 10% return pa ....&nbsp;long term holding&nbsp; ..[美金]&nbsp;[美金]&nbsp;","listText":"BRK &amp; SE .... the least also 10% return pa ....&nbsp;long term holding&nbsp; ..[美金]&nbsp;[美金]&nbsp;","text":"BRK & SE .... the least also 10% return pa .... long term holding ..[美金] [美金]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835854435","repostId":"2161742695","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":145330975,"gmtCreate":1626188995397,"gmtModify":1633929208917,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145330975","repostId":"1128855782","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":693715823,"gmtCreate":1640079044082,"gmtModify":1640079045141,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Strongly agree","listText":"Strongly agree","text":"Strongly agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693715823","repostId":"1112391676","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112391676","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640056217,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112391676?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 11:10","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: If You're Buying the Dip, Here's What You Need to Know<blockquote>苹果股票：如果您逢低买入，以下是您需要了解的内容</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112391676","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Bargain hunters may start to consider buying Apple stock on the dip, following the December selloff. Here is what they should know first.Apple stock remains in a funk. Only one week to the dayafter I tossed around the ideaof trimming the position, shares of the Cupertino company dipped 7% from the $180 peak against the Nasdaq’s 4% decline, nearly entering correction territory.A few brave investors and traders must be taking this opportunity to start buying the dip. The Apple Maven highlights thr","content":"<p>Bargain hunters may start to consider buying Apple stock on the dip, following the December selloff. Here is what they should know first.</p><p><blockquote>继12月抛售之后，逢低买入苹果股票的人可能会开始考虑逢低买入。以下是他们首先应该知道的。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock&nbsp;remains in a funk. Only one week to the dayafter I tossed around the ideaof trimming the position, shares of the Cupertino company dipped 7% from the $180 peak against the Nasdaq’s 4% decline, nearly entering correction territory.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票仍然处于恐慌状态。就在我提出削减头寸的想法一周后，这家库比蒂诺公司的股价从180美元的峰值下跌了7%，而纳斯达克则下跌了4%，几乎进入回调区域。</blockquote></p><p> A few brave investors and traders must be taking this opportunity to start buying the dip. The Apple Maven highlights three facts that these bargain hunters should keep in mind.</p><p><blockquote>一些勇敢的投资者和交易者一定会借此机会开始逢低买入。这位苹果专家强调了这些抄底者应该记住的三个事实。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a182a349bbd4ca16a13dace221ec341e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in China.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果国内门店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. Valuations are looking more attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.估值看起来更具吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL is far from being a dirt cheap stock. The price-to-earnings ratio today is still higher than it had been for at least the full decade prior to the start of the pandemic (see chart below). However, with the recent decline in share price but still resilient business fundamentals, valuations are starting to look more compelling.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司远非一只非常便宜的股票。如今的市盈率仍高于疫情开始前至少整整十年的水平（见下图）。然而，随着近期股价下跌但业务基本面仍有弹性，估值开始看起来更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ae50cce66d14520a3db0ce721b79a3\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"389\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL's historical price-to-earnings ratio.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL的历史市盈率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The last read on the graph above shows a P/E of 29.0 times as of November 30. As of last check, on December 20, the fiscal 2022 multiple had dropped to 27.5 times. These are roughly the same levels of June 2020, after which Apple stock moved 85% higher in a year and a half.</p><p><blockquote>上图的最后一次读数显示，截至11月30日，市盈率为29.0倍。截至12月20日上次检查，2022财年市盈率已降至27.5倍。这些水平与2020年6月大致相同，此后苹果股价在一年半内上涨了85%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2. The deeper the hole, the higher the gains</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2.洞越深，收益越高</b></blockquote></p><p> “Buy low, sell high”. The mantra may seem overly simplistic, but the strategy has worked wonders in the case of AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>“低买高卖”。这个口号可能看起来过于简单，但这一策略在苹果公司的案例中创造了奇迹。</blockquote></p><p> We have often mentioned here, on the Apple Maven channel, that shares of the Cupertino company&nbsp;do best when bought after a selloff. Historically, the one-year gains have been 22% when the stock is bought near a peak, but nearly 40% when bought after a 15% drawdown.</p><p><blockquote>我们在苹果Maven频道上经常提到，库比蒂诺公司的股票在抛售后买入时表现最好。从历史上看，当该股接近峰值时，一年涨幅为22%，但在下跌15%后买入时，一年涨幅接近40%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9439be7d48cbf04254a822d9d57576f3\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: Average one-year return on AAPL, by strategy.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：按策略划分的AAPL平均一年回报率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Could this time be different for dip buyers? I think not. To be clear, I do not believe that every stock is worth owning on weakness, as “40% of all stocks have&nbsp;suffered&nbsp;a permanent 70%-plus decline from their peak value”.</p><p><blockquote>对于逢低买入者来说，这次会有所不同吗？我不这么认为。需要明确的是，我不认为每只股票都值得在疲软时持有，因为“40%的股票从峰值永久下跌了70%以上”。</blockquote></p><p> But in the case of Apple, it is highly likely that share price will eventually head higher again, shaking off short-term bearishness and chasing the strong business fundamentals. Having the patience to wait for the next rally is crucial.</p><p><blockquote>但就苹果而言，股价最终极有可能再次走高，摆脱短期看跌情绪，追逐强劲的商业基本面。有耐心等待下一次反弹至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3. Don’t underestimate volatility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3.不要低估波动性</b></blockquote></p><p> All the above sounds bullish at first glance, and an incentive to buy Apple at the current share price of around $168. But if doing so, I urge traders and investors to pay attention to volatility.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，以上所有这些听起来都是看涨的，也是以目前168美元左右的股价买入苹果的动力。但如果这样做，我敦促交易者和投资者注意波动性。</blockquote></p><p> The emotional and psychological aspects of investing can be as important as the quantitative considerations, in my view. Those who buy dips must be willing to endure higher volatility, which has increased sharply for AAPL in the past few weeks — see below.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，投资的情感和心理方面与定量考虑一样重要。那些逢低买入的人必须愿意忍受更高的波动性，过去几周苹果公司的波动性急剧增加——见下文。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eace3c9293acb54a4dc217debd6a44be\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 4: Annual volatility in AAPL, 1-month rolling.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图4：AAPL年度波动率，1个月滚动。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Because Apple stock price is likely to ricochet in the short term, some might be tempted to sell their shares prematurely, should they drop well below current levels. If buying AAPL, be sure to have a clear exit strategy to avoid falling victim to spur-of-the-moment decisions.</p><p><blockquote>由于苹果股价可能会在短期内反弹，如果股价远低于当前水平，一些人可能会过早出售股票。如果购买AAPL，请务必制定明确的退出策略，以避免成为一时冲动决定的受害者。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: If You're Buying the Dip, Here's What You Need to Know<blockquote>苹果股票：如果您逢低买入，以下是您需要了解的内容</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: If You're Buying the Dip, Here's What You Need to Know<blockquote>苹果股票：如果您逢低买入，以下是您需要了解的内容</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-21 11:10</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Bargain hunters may start to consider buying Apple stock on the dip, following the December selloff. Here is what they should know first.</p><p><blockquote>继12月抛售之后，逢低买入苹果股票的人可能会开始考虑逢低买入。以下是他们首先应该知道的。</blockquote></p><p> Apple stock&nbsp;remains in a funk. Only one week to the dayafter I tossed around the ideaof trimming the position, shares of the Cupertino company dipped 7% from the $180 peak against the Nasdaq’s 4% decline, nearly entering correction territory.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股票仍然处于恐慌状态。就在我提出削减头寸的想法一周后，这家库比蒂诺公司的股价从180美元的峰值下跌了7%，而纳斯达克则下跌了4%，几乎进入回调区域。</blockquote></p><p> A few brave investors and traders must be taking this opportunity to start buying the dip. The Apple Maven highlights three facts that these bargain hunters should keep in mind.</p><p><blockquote>一些勇敢的投资者和交易者一定会借此机会开始逢低买入。这位苹果专家强调了这些抄底者应该记住的三个事实。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a182a349bbd4ca16a13dace221ec341e\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple store in China.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果国内门店。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. Valuations are looking more attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.估值看起来更具吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL is far from being a dirt cheap stock. The price-to-earnings ratio today is still higher than it had been for at least the full decade prior to the start of the pandemic (see chart below). However, with the recent decline in share price but still resilient business fundamentals, valuations are starting to look more compelling.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司远非一只非常便宜的股票。如今的市盈率仍高于疫情开始前至少整整十年的水平（见下图）。然而，随着近期股价下跌但业务基本面仍有弹性，估值开始看起来更具吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ae50cce66d14520a3db0ce721b79a3\" tg-width=\"827\" tg-height=\"389\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: AAPL's historical price-to-earnings ratio.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：AAPL的历史市盈率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The last read on the graph above shows a P/E of 29.0 times as of November 30. As of last check, on December 20, the fiscal 2022 multiple had dropped to 27.5 times. These are roughly the same levels of June 2020, after which Apple stock moved 85% higher in a year and a half.</p><p><blockquote>上图的最后一次读数显示，截至11月30日，市盈率为29.0倍。截至12月20日上次检查，2022财年市盈率已降至27.5倍。这些水平与2020年6月大致相同，此后苹果股价在一年半内上涨了85%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2. The deeper the hole, the higher the gains</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2.洞越深，收益越高</b></blockquote></p><p> “Buy low, sell high”. The mantra may seem overly simplistic, but the strategy has worked wonders in the case of AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>“低买高卖”。这个口号可能看起来过于简单，但这一策略在苹果公司的案例中创造了奇迹。</blockquote></p><p> We have often mentioned here, on the Apple Maven channel, that shares of the Cupertino company&nbsp;do best when bought after a selloff. Historically, the one-year gains have been 22% when the stock is bought near a peak, but nearly 40% when bought after a 15% drawdown.</p><p><blockquote>我们在苹果Maven频道上经常提到，库比蒂诺公司的股票在抛售后买入时表现最好。从历史上看，当该股接近峰值时，一年涨幅为22%，但在下跌15%后买入时，一年涨幅接近40%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9439be7d48cbf04254a822d9d57576f3\" tg-width=\"601\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: Average one-year return on AAPL, by strategy.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：按策略划分的AAPL平均一年回报率。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Could this time be different for dip buyers? I think not. To be clear, I do not believe that every stock is worth owning on weakness, as “40% of all stocks have&nbsp;suffered&nbsp;a permanent 70%-plus decline from their peak value”.</p><p><blockquote>对于逢低买入者来说，这次会有所不同吗？我不这么认为。需要明确的是，我不认为每只股票都值得在疲软时持有，因为“40%的股票从峰值永久下跌了70%以上”。</blockquote></p><p> But in the case of Apple, it is highly likely that share price will eventually head higher again, shaking off short-term bearishness and chasing the strong business fundamentals. Having the patience to wait for the next rally is crucial.</p><p><blockquote>但就苹果而言，股价最终极有可能再次走高，摆脱短期看跌情绪，追逐强劲的商业基本面。有耐心等待下一次反弹至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3. Don’t underestimate volatility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3.不要低估波动性</b></blockquote></p><p> All the above sounds bullish at first glance, and an incentive to buy Apple at the current share price of around $168. But if doing so, I urge traders and investors to pay attention to volatility.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，以上所有这些听起来都是看涨的，也是以目前168美元左右的股价买入苹果的动力。但如果这样做，我敦促交易者和投资者注意波动性。</blockquote></p><p> The emotional and psychological aspects of investing can be as important as the quantitative considerations, in my view. Those who buy dips must be willing to endure higher volatility, which has increased sharply for AAPL in the past few weeks — see below.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，投资的情感和心理方面与定量考虑一样重要。那些逢低买入的人必须愿意忍受更高的波动性，过去几周苹果公司的波动性急剧增加——见下文。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eace3c9293acb54a4dc217debd6a44be\" tg-width=\"618\" tg-height=\"370\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 4: Annual volatility in AAPL, 1-month rolling.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图4：AAPL年度波动率，1个月滚动。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Because Apple stock price is likely to ricochet in the short term, some might be tempted to sell their shares prematurely, should they drop well below current levels. If buying AAPL, be sure to have a clear exit strategy to avoid falling victim to spur-of-the-moment decisions.</p><p><blockquote>由于苹果股价可能会在短期内反弹，如果股价远低于当前水平，一些人可能会过早出售股票。如果购买AAPL，请务必制定明确的退出策略，以避免成为一时冲动决定的受害者。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-3-key-facts-dip-buyers-must-know\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-3-key-facts-dip-buyers-must-know","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112391676","content_text":"Bargain hunters may start to consider buying Apple stock on the dip, following the December selloff. Here is what they should know first.\nApple stock remains in a funk. Only one week to the dayafter I tossed around the ideaof trimming the position, shares of the Cupertino company dipped 7% from the $180 peak against the Nasdaq’s 4% decline, nearly entering correction territory.\nA few brave investors and traders must be taking this opportunity to start buying the dip. The Apple Maven highlights three facts that these bargain hunters should keep in mind.\nFigure 1: Apple store in China.\n#1. Valuations are looking more attractive\nAAPL is far from being a dirt cheap stock. The price-to-earnings ratio today is still higher than it had been for at least the full decade prior to the start of the pandemic (see chart below). However, with the recent decline in share price but still resilient business fundamentals, valuations are starting to look more compelling.\nFigure 2: AAPL's historical price-to-earnings ratio.\nThe last read on the graph above shows a P/E of 29.0 times as of November 30. As of last check, on December 20, the fiscal 2022 multiple had dropped to 27.5 times. These are roughly the same levels of June 2020, after which Apple stock moved 85% higher in a year and a half.\n#2. The deeper the hole, the higher the gains\n“Buy low, sell high”. The mantra may seem overly simplistic, but the strategy has worked wonders in the case of AAPL.\nWe have often mentioned here, on the Apple Maven channel, that shares of the Cupertino company do best when bought after a selloff. Historically, the one-year gains have been 22% when the stock is bought near a peak, but nearly 40% when bought after a 15% drawdown.\nFigure 3: Average one-year return on AAPL, by strategy.\nCould this time be different for dip buyers? I think not. To be clear, I do not believe that every stock is worth owning on weakness, as “40% of all stocks have suffered a permanent 70%-plus decline from their peak value”.\nBut in the case of Apple, it is highly likely that share price will eventually head higher again, shaking off short-term bearishness and chasing the strong business fundamentals. Having the patience to wait for the next rally is crucial.\n#3. Don’t underestimate volatility\nAll the above sounds bullish at first glance, and an incentive to buy Apple at the current share price of around $168. But if doing so, I urge traders and investors to pay attention to volatility.\nThe emotional and psychological aspects of investing can be as important as the quantitative considerations, in my view. Those who buy dips must be willing to endure higher volatility, which has increased sharply for AAPL in the past few weeks — see below.\nFigure 4: Annual volatility in AAPL, 1-month rolling.\nBecause Apple stock price is likely to ricochet in the short term, some might be tempted to sell their shares prematurely, should they drop well below current levels. If buying AAPL, be sure to have a clear exit strategy to avoid falling victim to spur-of-the-moment decisions.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2848,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855916155,"gmtCreate":1635323901479,"gmtModify":1635324029476,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Holding BRK.B, hassle free","listText":"Holding BRK.B, hassle free","text":"Holding BRK.B, hassle free","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855916155","repostId":"2178408679","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":177481454,"gmtCreate":1627257652978,"gmtModify":1631892155864,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Busy week ..looks like volatility will be high","listText":"Busy week ..looks like volatility will be high","text":"Busy week ..looks like volatility will be high","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177481454","repostId":"1100772026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":825816809,"gmtCreate":1634216569931,"gmtModify":1634216607695,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"SBUX one month Call looks cheap .... if earning can pump up the volatility,&nbsp; upside potential looks bright&nbsp;","listText":"SBUX one month Call looks cheap .... if earning can pump up the volatility,&nbsp; upside potential looks bright&nbsp;","text":"SBUX one month Call looks cheap .... if earning can pump up the volatility, upside potential looks bright","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825816809","repostId":"1161146997","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161146997","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634201365,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161146997?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 16:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season<blockquote>期权投资者应该如何应对本财报季</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161146997","media":"Barrons","summary":"At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analys","content":"<p>At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analysts are generally worried about earnings growth, and the options market is a cauldron of coiled anxiety.</p><p><blockquote>在第三季度财报季伊始，可以说投资者感到紧张，分析师普遍担心盈利增长，期权市场是一个焦虑不安的大锅。</blockquote></p><p> The cause for this sour sentiment? Expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon raise interest rates, for a variety of reasons.</p><p><blockquote>这种酸楚情绪的原因是什么？出于多种原因，人们对美联储可能很快加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> The economy is beset by inflationary pressures. Supply chains are struggling to keep pace with consumer and corporate demand for everything from semiconductors to toilet paper. Economic growth, which ultimately drives corporate earnings, appears to be slowing, and that generally portends poorly for stock prices. The drama in Washington over raising the debt ceiling, and dueling legislative agendas, adds a circus-like air to the market.</p><p><blockquote>经济受到通货膨胀压力的困扰。供应链正在努力跟上消费者和企业对从半导体到卫生纸等各种产品的需求。最终推动企业盈利的经济增长似乎正在放缓，这通常对股价来说是个坏兆头。华盛顿围绕提高债务上限和立法议程的争论给市场增添了马戏团般的气氛。</blockquote></p><p> What is less discussed is that the rules of the game are changing. When the Fed finally raises interest rates, most investors will have to learn some new tricks.</p><p><blockquote>较少讨论的是，游戏规则正在发生变化。当美联储最终加息时，大多数投资者将不得不学习一些新技巧。</blockquote></p><p> After 20 years of easy-money policies, investors have come to rely on the mighty “Fed put”—the belief that the Fed will do whatever it takes to keep the stock market from falling too far. Now, it seems the Fed put&nbsp;might expire after this earnings season, and making money in the stock and options markets may no longer be so easy.</p><p><blockquote>经过20年的宽松货币政策，投资者开始依赖强大的“美联储看跌期权”——相信美联储将不惜一切代价阻止股市下跌太多。现在看来，美联储看跌期权可能会在本财报季后到期，在股票和期权市场赚钱可能不再那么容易。</blockquote></p><p> The good news? There are ways to monetize these unusual conditions during an event-heavy calendar.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是什么？在活动繁忙的日历中，有一些方法可以将这些不寻常的情况货币化。</blockquote></p><p> There are many crosscurrents moving above and below the market’s surface. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;is dancing around historic highs. Yet earnings estimates for the third quarter show little expectation that corporate earnings reports will prove to be much of anything—and this could create some opportunities for aggressive investors.</p><p><blockquote>市场表面上方和下方有许多逆流。标准普尔500指数正在历史高点附近起舞。然而，第三季度的盈利预测显示，人们对企业盈利报告将被证明有多大意义的预期很小，这可能为激进的投资者创造一些机会。</blockquote></p><p> John Marshall,Goldman Sachs’ derivatives strategist, recently advised clients that analyst estimates for the third quarter have been revised upward by 12% over the past three months but still remain 2% below the second-quarter’s level (not including the financial sector).</p><p><blockquote>高盛衍生品策略师约翰·马歇尔(John Marshall)最近向客户表示，过去三个月分析师对第三季度的预期已上调12%，但仍比第二季度的水平低2%（不包括金融部门）。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, single-stock skew—the difference between bearish put-option and bullish call-option implied volatility—is at the highest level in over a year.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，单股偏差（看跌看跌期权和看涨看涨期权期权隐含波动率之间的差异）处于一年多来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> The elevated skew suggests that investors have bought bearish puts to hedge earnings reports, thus creating conditions that could spark relief rallies in certain stocks on earnings day, and even in broad indexes, Marshall told clients. Investors are so pessimistic about corporate earnings—and have positioned that way in the options market—that any bit of good news could prompt strong moves in individual stocks.</p><p><blockquote>马歇尔告诉客户，偏高表明投资者购买了看跌看跌期权以对冲收益报告，从而创造了可能在收益日引发某些股票甚至广泛指数的缓解性反弹的条件。投资者对企业盈利如此悲观——并在期权市场上如此定位——以至于任何一点好消息都可能促使个股出现强劲走势。</blockquote></p><p> To trade these conditions, Marshall has assembled a list of stocks in which Goldman analysts are the most out of consensus with the Street view. On stocks that have the potential to beat earnings estimates, he has suggested that clients consider buying calls that expire in one month, with strike prices just above the current stock price.</p><p><blockquote>为了交易这些条件，马歇尔整理了一份高盛分析师与街景最不一致的股票名单。对于有可能超出盈利预期的股票，他建议客户考虑购买一个月后到期的评级，执行价格略高于当前股价。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s trading menu for stocks with potential upside to earnings estimates includes&nbsp;Starbucks&nbsp;(ticker: SBUX),Canadian Natural Resources&nbsp;(CNQ), YETI Holdings (YETI),Cenovus Energy&nbsp;(CVE), Carlyle Group (CG),Signature Bank&nbsp;(SBNY),Align Technology&nbsp;(ALGN),Maravai LifeSciences Holdings&nbsp;(MRVI),Fortune Brands Home &amp; Security&nbsp;(FBHS),Shoals Technologies Group&nbsp;(SHLS),CF Industries&nbsp;(CF),Okta&nbsp;(OKTA),Playtika Holding&nbsp;(PLTK), and&nbsp;Republic Services&nbsp;(RSG).</p><p><blockquote>高盛对盈利预期有潜在上行空间的股票的交易菜单包括星巴克（股票代码：SBUX）、加拿大自然资源公司（CNQ）、YETI Holdings（YETI）、Cenovus Energy（CVE）、凯雷投资集团（CG）、Signature Bank（SBNY）、Align Technology(ALGN)、Maravai LifeSciences Holdings(MRVI)、Fortune Brands Home&amp;Security(FBHS)、Shoals Technologies Group(SHLS)、CF Industries(CF)、Okta(OKTA)、Playtika Holding(PLTK)和Republic Services(RSG)。</blockquote></p><p> At a time when so many investors are confused about what to do, Goldman’s approach shows how a sophisticated strategist is thinking when change is in the air and investors are nervous about what comes next.</p><p><blockquote>在许多投资者对该做什么感到困惑之际，高盛的做法表明，当变革即将来临、投资者对接下来会发生什么感到紧张时，一位老练的策略师是如何思考的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season<blockquote>期权投资者应该如何应对本财报季</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow Options Investors Should Play This Earnings Season<blockquote>期权投资者应该如何应对本财报季</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-14 16:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analysts are generally worried about earnings growth, and the options market is a cauldron of coiled anxiety.</p><p><blockquote>在第三季度财报季伊始，可以说投资者感到紧张，分析师普遍担心盈利增长，期权市场是一个焦虑不安的大锅。</blockquote></p><p> The cause for this sour sentiment? Expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon raise interest rates, for a variety of reasons.</p><p><blockquote>这种酸楚情绪的原因是什么？出于多种原因，人们对美联储可能很快加息的预期。</blockquote></p><p> The economy is beset by inflationary pressures. Supply chains are struggling to keep pace with consumer and corporate demand for everything from semiconductors to toilet paper. Economic growth, which ultimately drives corporate earnings, appears to be slowing, and that generally portends poorly for stock prices. The drama in Washington over raising the debt ceiling, and dueling legislative agendas, adds a circus-like air to the market.</p><p><blockquote>经济受到通货膨胀压力的困扰。供应链正在努力跟上消费者和企业对从半导体到卫生纸等各种产品的需求。最终推动企业盈利的经济增长似乎正在放缓，这通常对股价来说是个坏兆头。华盛顿围绕提高债务上限和立法议程的争论给市场增添了马戏团般的气氛。</blockquote></p><p> What is less discussed is that the rules of the game are changing. When the Fed finally raises interest rates, most investors will have to learn some new tricks.</p><p><blockquote>较少讨论的是，游戏规则正在发生变化。当美联储最终加息时，大多数投资者将不得不学习一些新技巧。</blockquote></p><p> After 20 years of easy-money policies, investors have come to rely on the mighty “Fed put”—the belief that the Fed will do whatever it takes to keep the stock market from falling too far. Now, it seems the Fed put&nbsp;might expire after this earnings season, and making money in the stock and options markets may no longer be so easy.</p><p><blockquote>经过20年的宽松货币政策，投资者开始依赖强大的“美联储看跌期权”——相信美联储将不惜一切代价阻止股市下跌太多。现在看来，美联储看跌期权可能会在本财报季后到期，在股票和期权市场赚钱可能不再那么容易。</blockquote></p><p> The good news? There are ways to monetize these unusual conditions during an event-heavy calendar.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是什么？在活动繁忙的日历中，有一些方法可以将这些不寻常的情况货币化。</blockquote></p><p> There are many crosscurrents moving above and below the market’s surface. The&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 index&nbsp;is dancing around historic highs. Yet earnings estimates for the third quarter show little expectation that corporate earnings reports will prove to be much of anything—and this could create some opportunities for aggressive investors.</p><p><blockquote>市场表面上方和下方有许多逆流。标准普尔500指数正在历史高点附近起舞。然而，第三季度的盈利预测显示，人们对企业盈利报告将被证明有多大意义的预期很小，这可能为激进的投资者创造一些机会。</blockquote></p><p> John Marshall,Goldman Sachs’ derivatives strategist, recently advised clients that analyst estimates for the third quarter have been revised upward by 12% over the past three months but still remain 2% below the second-quarter’s level (not including the financial sector).</p><p><blockquote>高盛衍生品策略师约翰·马歇尔(John Marshall)最近向客户表示，过去三个月分析师对第三季度的预期已上调12%，但仍比第二季度的水平低2%（不包括金融部门）。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, single-stock skew—the difference between bearish put-option and bullish call-option implied volatility—is at the highest level in over a year.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，单股偏差（看跌看跌期权和看涨看涨期权期权隐含波动率之间的差异）处于一年多来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> The elevated skew suggests that investors have bought bearish puts to hedge earnings reports, thus creating conditions that could spark relief rallies in certain stocks on earnings day, and even in broad indexes, Marshall told clients. Investors are so pessimistic about corporate earnings—and have positioned that way in the options market—that any bit of good news could prompt strong moves in individual stocks.</p><p><blockquote>马歇尔告诉客户，偏高表明投资者购买了看跌看跌期权以对冲收益报告，从而创造了可能在收益日引发某些股票甚至广泛指数的缓解性反弹的条件。投资者对企业盈利如此悲观——并在期权市场上如此定位——以至于任何一点好消息都可能促使个股出现强劲走势。</blockquote></p><p> To trade these conditions, Marshall has assembled a list of stocks in which Goldman analysts are the most out of consensus with the Street view. On stocks that have the potential to beat earnings estimates, he has suggested that clients consider buying calls that expire in one month, with strike prices just above the current stock price.</p><p><blockquote>为了交易这些条件，马歇尔整理了一份高盛分析师与街景最不一致的股票名单。对于有可能超出盈利预期的股票，他建议客户考虑购买一个月后到期的评级，执行价格略高于当前股价。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman’s trading menu for stocks with potential upside to earnings estimates includes&nbsp;Starbucks&nbsp;(ticker: SBUX),Canadian Natural Resources&nbsp;(CNQ), YETI Holdings (YETI),Cenovus Energy&nbsp;(CVE), Carlyle Group (CG),Signature Bank&nbsp;(SBNY),Align Technology&nbsp;(ALGN),Maravai LifeSciences Holdings&nbsp;(MRVI),Fortune Brands Home &amp; Security&nbsp;(FBHS),Shoals Technologies Group&nbsp;(SHLS),CF Industries&nbsp;(CF),Okta&nbsp;(OKTA),Playtika Holding&nbsp;(PLTK), and&nbsp;Republic Services&nbsp;(RSG).</p><p><blockquote>高盛对盈利预期有潜在上行空间的股票的交易菜单包括星巴克（股票代码：SBUX）、加拿大自然资源公司（CNQ）、YETI Holdings（YETI）、Cenovus Energy（CVE）、凯雷投资集团（CG）、Signature Bank（SBNY）、Align Technology(ALGN)、Maravai LifeSciences Holdings(MRVI)、Fortune Brands Home&amp;Security(FBHS)、Shoals Technologies Group(SHLS)、CF Industries(CF)、Okta(OKTA)、Playtika Holding(PLTK)和Republic Services(RSG)。</blockquote></p><p> At a time when so many investors are confused about what to do, Goldman’s approach shows how a sophisticated strategist is thinking when change is in the air and investors are nervous about what comes next.</p><p><blockquote>在许多投资者对该做什么感到困惑之际，高盛的做法表明，当变革即将来临、投资者对接下来会发生什么感到紧张时，一位老练的策略师是如何思考的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-options-investors-should-play-this-earnings-season-51634196601?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SHLS":"Shoals Technologies Group",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","CF":"CF工业","RSG":"共和废品处理","ALGN":"艾利科技","MRVI":"Maravai LifeSciences Holdings, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯","OKTA":"Okta Inc.","SBUX":"星巴克","CNQ":"加国自然资源","CVE":"Cenovus能源","YETI":"YETI Holdings Inc.","SBNY":"签字银行","CG":"凯雷","PLTK":"Playtika Holding Corp.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-options-investors-should-play-this-earnings-season-51634196601?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161146997","content_text":"At the start of the third-quarter earnings season, let it be said that investors are nervous, analysts are generally worried about earnings growth, and the options market is a cauldron of coiled anxiety.\nThe cause for this sour sentiment? Expectations that the Federal Reserve may soon raise interest rates, for a variety of reasons.\nThe economy is beset by inflationary pressures. Supply chains are struggling to keep pace with consumer and corporate demand for everything from semiconductors to toilet paper. Economic growth, which ultimately drives corporate earnings, appears to be slowing, and that generally portends poorly for stock prices. The drama in Washington over raising the debt ceiling, and dueling legislative agendas, adds a circus-like air to the market.\nWhat is less discussed is that the rules of the game are changing. When the Fed finally raises interest rates, most investors will have to learn some new tricks.\nAfter 20 years of easy-money policies, investors have come to rely on the mighty “Fed put”—the belief that the Fed will do whatever it takes to keep the stock market from falling too far. Now, it seems the Fed put might expire after this earnings season, and making money in the stock and options markets may no longer be so easy.\nThe good news? There are ways to monetize these unusual conditions during an event-heavy calendar.\nThere are many crosscurrents moving above and below the market’s surface. The S&P 500 index is dancing around historic highs. Yet earnings estimates for the third quarter show little expectation that corporate earnings reports will prove to be much of anything—and this could create some opportunities for aggressive investors.\nJohn Marshall,Goldman Sachs’ derivatives strategist, recently advised clients that analyst estimates for the third quarter have been revised upward by 12% over the past three months but still remain 2% below the second-quarter’s level (not including the financial sector).\nMeanwhile, single-stock skew—the difference between bearish put-option and bullish call-option implied volatility—is at the highest level in over a year.\nThe elevated skew suggests that investors have bought bearish puts to hedge earnings reports, thus creating conditions that could spark relief rallies in certain stocks on earnings day, and even in broad indexes, Marshall told clients. Investors are so pessimistic about corporate earnings—and have positioned that way in the options market—that any bit of good news could prompt strong moves in individual stocks.\nTo trade these conditions, Marshall has assembled a list of stocks in which Goldman analysts are the most out of consensus with the Street view. On stocks that have the potential to beat earnings estimates, he has suggested that clients consider buying calls that expire in one month, with strike prices just above the current stock price.\nGoldman’s trading menu for stocks with potential upside to earnings estimates includes Starbucks (ticker: SBUX),Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), YETI Holdings (YETI),Cenovus Energy (CVE), Carlyle Group (CG),Signature Bank (SBNY),Align Technology (ALGN),Maravai LifeSciences Holdings (MRVI),Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS),Shoals Technologies Group (SHLS),CF Industries (CF),Okta (OKTA),Playtika Holding (PLTK), and Republic Services (RSG).\nAt a time when so many investors are confused about what to do, Goldman’s approach shows how a sophisticated strategist is thinking when change is in the air and investors are nervous about what comes next.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CNQ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"YETI":0.9,"SHLS":0.9,"SBUX":0.9,"SBNY":0.9,"CG":0.9,"FBHS":0.9,"PLTK":0.9,"RSG":0.9,"ALGN":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"OKTA":0.9,"MRVI":0.9,"CVE":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"CF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2011,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":142245558,"gmtCreate":1626156704474,"gmtModify":1633929547891,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looking forward if earnings can lift market higher","listText":"Looking forward if earnings can lift market higher","text":"Looking forward if earnings can lift market higher","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142245558","repostId":"1101566017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":862916578,"gmtCreate":1632828366218,"gmtModify":1632828366543,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"20% will be good for those with cash to buy the dip and DCA down. Wish it come through","listText":"20% will be good for those with cash to buy the dip and DCA down. Wish it come through","text":"20% will be good for those with cash to buy the dip and DCA down. Wish it come through","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862916578","repostId":"1166571782","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166571782","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632787589,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166571782?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 08:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley Dismisses Market's \"Strong Rebound\", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment<blockquote>摩根士丹利否认市场“强劲反弹”，对即将到来的盈利令人失望仍持悲观态度</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166571782","media":"zerohedge","summary":"For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumb","content":"<p>For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumbling on Evergrande default fears, Wilson emerged from his faux-bull cocoon (havingraised his year-end S&amp;P price target from 3,900 to 4,000 in Augustin a note that reeked of disgust with what he was being told to do) and warned that an \"Ice is coming\", referring to a 20% drop in stocks as opposed to the more modest 10% correction envisioned in his \"fire\" scenario, saying that \"<b>the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction</b>\", a drop he expects will take place some time this fall.</p><p><blockquote>上周一的短短几个小时内，摩根士丹利首席经济学家感到自己被证明是正确的：随着股市因恒大违约担忧而暴跌，威尔逊从他的假牛市茧中走了出来（在奥古斯丁将年终标准普尔目标价从3,900点上调至4,000点）对他被告知要做的事情感到厌恶）并警告说“冰即将到来”，指的是股市将下跌20%，而不是他在“火灾”情景中设想的更温和的10%调整，他说“<b>“冰”情景开始看起来更有可能，并可能导致更具破坏性的结果——即20%以上的修正</b>”，他预计今年秋天的某个时候会出现下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87b7fac22f1a1f5db68fec641fc7528\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wilson also predicted that with earnings growth and PMIs set to drop, it would adversely impact forward PE multiples and by extension the S&amp;P.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊还预测，随着盈利增长和采购经理人指数下降，这将对远期市盈率以及标准普尔指数产生不利影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45afcf0068538b4f56bc85f42af9e52f\" tg-width=\"1233\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Well, what a difference 7 days makes: with Evergrande default fears now long forgotten with little to no offshore contagion,&nbsp;the S&amp;P is almost 150 points from its \"Evergrande Monday\" lows and once again pushing back toward all time highs (even if with a major rotation in the leadership as tech stocks are now sliding, having been replaced by value, cyclical and reopening names) in the process yet again foiling Wilson's bearish visions.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，7天的变化是多么大：随着恒大违约的担忧现在早已被遗忘，几乎没有离岸蔓延，标准普尔指数距离“恒大周一”低点近150点，并再次推回到历史高点（即使随着科技股目前下滑，已被价值股、周期性股和重新开放股所取代，领导层发生了重大轮换），这再次挫败了威尔逊的看跌愿景。</blockquote></p><p> So has the market's sharp post-opex bounce changed the mind of the chief strategist that this seemingly invincible market will never go down again more than just a token 5% move?</p><p><blockquote>那么，运营支出后市场的大幅反弹是否改变了首席策略师的想法，即这个看似不可战胜的市场永远不会再次下跌，而不仅仅是象征性的5%波动？</blockquote></p><p> Today we got the answer in Wilson's latest weekly warm-up not, in which he makes it clear that his bearish outlook remains, and as he explains, \"our process tells us the risk-reward remains unattractive at the index level given slowing growth and rising rates. Meanwhile, price action can be interpreted bullishly or bearishly.&nbsp;<b>With 3Q earnings season likely to bring a much more muted outcome, we remain defensive in our positioning.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们在威尔逊最新的每周热身中得到了答案，他在其中明确表示，他的看跌前景仍然存在，正如他解释的那样，“我们的流程告诉我们，鉴于增长放缓和利率上升，风险回报在指数水平上仍然没有吸引力。与此同时，价格走势可以被解读为看涨或看跌。<b>由于第三季度财报季可能会带来更加温和的结果，我们的定位仍然是防御性的。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p> We'll get to why in a second, but first Wilson - realizing that he would get a criticism for what many viewed as a premature victory lap - spends the first few paragraphs of his latest note going over the details of his analytical process. This is how he lays it out:</p><p><blockquote>我们稍后会解释原因，但首先威尔逊意识到他会因为许多人认为他过早获胜而受到批评，他在最新笔记的前几段回顾了他的分析过程的细节。他是这样布局的：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Our equity strategy process has several key components. Most importantly, we focus on the fundamentals of growth and valuation to determine whether the overall market is attractive and which sectors and stocks look the best/worst.</b>The rate of change on growth is more important than the absolute level, and we use a market-based equity risk premium framework that works well as long as you apply the correct regime when using it. In that regard, we’re an avid student of market cycles and believe historical analogs can be helpful. For example, the mid cycle transition narrative that has worked so well this year is derived directly from our study of historical economic and market cycles.    <b>The final component we spend a lot of time on is price.</b>While most would call this technical analysis, we’d like to think we do it a little bit differently. Markets aren’t always efficient, but we believe they are often very good leading indicators for the fundamentals—the ultimate driver of value. This is especially true if one looks at the internal movements and relative strength of individual securities. In short,   <b>we find these internals to be much more helpful than simply looking at the major averages.</b>    <b>This year, we think the process has lived up to its promise quite well with the price action lining up nicely with the fundamental backdrop.</b>In short, the large cap quality leadership since March is signaling what we believe is about to happen—i.e., decelerating growth and tightening financial conditions. The question for investors is whether the price action has fully discounted those outcomes.  With that disclosure in hand, and with the clear understanding that at least in his view investors are not discounting any adverse outcomes at this point, Wilson proceeds to discuss the recent market action, noting that stocks<b>\"sold off hard last Monday on concerns about the Evergrande bankruptcy\"</b>and while he adds that it is the Morgan Stanley \"house view\" that it likely won’t lead to a major financial contagion, \"it will probably weigh on China growth for the next few quarters which means that the growth deceleration we are expecting could be a bit worse.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>我们的股票策略流程有几个关键组成部分。最重要的是，我们关注增长和估值的基本面，以确定整体市场是否有吸引力，以及哪些板块和股票看起来最好/最差。</b>增长的变化率比绝对水平更重要，我们使用基于市场的股票风险溢价框架，只要您在使用时应用正确的制度，该框架就能很好地发挥作用。在这方面，我们是市场周期的热心学生，并相信历史类比会有所帮助。例如，今年表现良好的中期周期转型叙事直接来自我们对历史经济和市场周期的研究。<b>我们花费大量时间的最后一个因素是价格。</b>虽然大多数人会看涨期权这种技术分析，但我们认为我们做得有点不同。市场并不总是有效的，但我们相信它们通常是基本面（价值的最终驱动力）的非常好的领先指标。如果观察个别证券的内部走势和相对强度，情况尤其如此。总之，<b>我们发现这些内部因素比简单地查看主要平均值更有帮助。</b><b>今年，我们认为这一过程很好地兑现了其承诺，价格走势与基本面背景很好地一致。</b>简而言之，自3月份以来大盘股质量的领先地位发出了我们认为即将发生的事情的信号，即增长减速和金融状况收紧。投资者面临的问题是，价格走势是否完全低估了这些结果。有了这一披露，并清楚地认识到，至少在他看来，投资者目前并没有低估任何不利结果，威尔逊继续讨论最近的市场走势，指出股票<b>“上周一因担心恒大破产而遭到大量抛售”</b>虽然他补充说，摩根士丹利的“内部观点”是，这可能不会导致重大的金融危机蔓延，但“这可能会给中国未来几个季度的经济增长带来压力，这意味着我们预计的经济增长减速可能会更糟一点。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The other reason Wilson suggests was behind the market weakness early last week \"likely had to do with concern about the Fed articulating its plans to taper asset purchases later this year and perhaps even move up the timing of rate hikes to next year. On that score, the Fed did not disappoint as they pretty much told us to expect the taper to begin in December.<b>The surprise was the speed in which they expect to be done tapering—by mid 2022.</b>This is about a quarter sooner than the market had been anticipating and does move up the odds for a rate hike in 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊表示，上周初市场疲软背后的另一个原因“可能与担心美联储阐明其在今年晚些时候缩减资产购买计划，甚至可能将加息时间提前到明年有关。在这一点上，美联储并没有让人失望，因为他们几乎告诉我们预计缩减将在12月开始。<b>令人惊讶的是他们预计到2022年中期完成缩减的速度。</b>这比市场预期提前了约四分之一，确实增加了2022年加息的可能性。”</blockquote></p><p> Curiously last week's rally happened in the aftermath of the market's perplexing kneejerk response to the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when stocks rallied even as bonds sold off sharply, particularly at the back end. Real 10-year yields were up 11bps in 2 days and are now up 31bps in just 8 weeks (Exhibit 1). That according to Wilson is \"tightening of financial conditions for sure\" and should weigh on PEs overall but it also has big implications for what should work at the sector/style level (Exhibit 2).</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，上周的反弹发生在市场对周三美联储会议做出令人困惑的下意识反应之后，当时尽管债券大幅抛售，尤其是在后端，股市仍上涨。实际10年期国债收益率在两天内上涨了11个基点，现在在短短8周内上涨了31个基点（图表1）。根据威尔逊的说法，这是“金融状况肯定会收紧”，应该会对整体市盈率造成压力，但它也对行业/风格层面的工作产生重大影响（图表2）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f0bb937e8d564694c06b7e1362bd81\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In short, Wilson digs in and claims that higher real rates should mean lower P/Es overall which likely means lower S&amp;P 500, thus validating his bearish view which still sees the S&amp;P dropping some 20% from its current perch to hit 4,000 by year end. However, he concedes, \"it may also mean value over growth and small caps over Nasdaq even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，Wilson深入研究并声称，较高的实际利率应该意味着较低的整体市盈率，这可能意味着较低的标普500，从而验证了他的看跌观点，即标准普尔指数仍将从目前的水平下跌约20%，到年底触及4,000点。然而，他承认，“这也可能意味着价值超过增长，小盘股超过纳斯达克，即使整体股市走低。”</blockquote></p><p> Which brings us to the key question we spent quite some time discussing last week, namely<b>why did stocks rally so much into the end of the week</b>on what Wilson says are odds that growth will decelerate more than expected from Evergrande and financial conditions may tighten faster?</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了我们上星期花了相当长时间讨论的关键问题，即<b>为什么股市在本周末大幅上涨</b>威尔逊认为恒大经济增长放缓幅度超过预期且财务状况可能更快收紧的可能性有多大？</blockquote></p><p> Here Wilson is at least honest - as he puts it - and says \"we’re not sure but we think this may be a time when the markets are playing tricks on investors and even setting a bit of a trap.\" Actually it's simpler than that and has to do with thegamma reversal and technical flows we pointed out last week, but one has to be a \"greek geek\" - like Nomura's Charlie McElligott - to get that.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，威尔逊至少是诚实的——正如他所说——并表示“我们不确定，但我们认为这可能是市场在捉弄投资者，甚至设置一点陷阱的时候。”实际上，这比这更简单，与我们上周指出的伽马反转和技术流有关，但必须是“希腊极客”——比如野村证券的查理·麦克埃利戈特——才能理解这一点。</blockquote></p><p> The other explanation proposed by Wilson is \"that investors were somewhat positioned for bad news going into the Fed meeting and the actual event simply served as a relief that it didn’t lead lower prices. This price action drove many investors to chase on Thursday for fear of missing out.<b>In short, don’t underestimate the power of price to determine how investors interpret the facts.</b>Just like negative price action can get people to sell the lows, positive price action can force people to buy\", he concludes.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊提出的另一种解释是，“投资者在某种程度上对美联储会议的坏消息做好了准备，而实际事件只是让人松了一口气，因为它没有导致价格下跌。这种价格走势促使许多投资者在周四追逐，因为害怕错过。<b>简而言之，不要低估价格决定投资者如何解读事实的力量。</b>就像负面的价格行为可以让人们在低点卖出一样，积极的价格行为可以迫使人们买入”，他总结道。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever the reason for the initial bounce, it quickly accelerated and there was \"a lot of excitement last Thursday when stocks rallied sharply back above the 50 day moving average, a key barometer for many and a key level of support throughout this year for the S&amp;P 500.\" That this happened when the 50DMA was broken \"on near record levels of volume in both the cash and derivatives markets\" only punctuated the strength of the rebound. By Friday, that moving average had been reclaimed and closed above it for the week, an important technical win as even Wilson admits. However, he then adds, from his vantage point, \"the very well defined uptrend that has been established over the past year was broken and not reclaimed. Instead, it looks like the rally from Wednesday to Friday was simply \"filling the gap\" created from Monday's break.\"</p><p><blockquote>无论最初反弹的原因是什么，它很快就加速了，“上周四，当股市大幅反弹回到50日移动平均线上方时，人们非常兴奋，这是许多人的关键晴雨表，也是今年标普500的关键支撑位。”这种情况发生在“现金和衍生品市场成交量接近创纪录水平”的50日均线被突破时，这只会加剧反弹的强度。到周五，该移动平均线已被收复，并在本周收于该移动平均线之上，就连威尔逊也承认，这是一次重要的技术胜利。然而，他随后补充道，从他的角度来看，“过去一年建立的非常明确的上升趋势被打破了，没有恢复。相反，看起来周三至周五的反弹只是‘填补了缺口’。”周一休息。”</blockquote></p><p> His conclusion on upcoming market action will hardly come as a surprise to those who have followed Wilson's progressive pessimism across 2021: pointing to the market's inability to recover its prior trendline, he says \"this leaves the technical picture very uncertain in our view and one can now break either way. With our fundamental view skewing poorly at the moment, we lean to the bearish outcome.\"</p><p><blockquote>对于那些关注威尔逊在2021年逐步悲观情绪的人来说，他关于即将到来的市场行动的结论并不令人惊讶：他指出市场无法恢复之前的趋势线，他表示，“这使得我们认为技术面非常不确定，现在可以打破任何一种方式。由于我们的基本面观点目前不佳，我们倾向于看跌结果。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fc56e35f140c96104f8d8aa0826fd3\" tg-width=\"1100\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Getting back to his process, Wilson then says that he has high conviction that \"earnings growth is likely to decelerate more than what the current consensus is forecasting.\" Furthermore, he thinks the market is starting to agree with that view and points to market breadth as a good leading indicator for earnings revision breadth where he says \"direction is clear\" and pointing to the newly shrinking market breadth, he reminds readers that earnings revision breadth is a good leading indicator for the overall market.</p><p><blockquote>回到他的过程，威尔逊随后表示，他坚信“盈利增长的减速可能会超过当前共识的预测。”此外，他认为市场开始同意这一观点，并指出市场广度是盈利修正广度的良好领先指标，他说“方向很明确”，并指出新萎缩的市场广度，他提醒读者，盈利修正广度是整体市场的良好领先指标。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It will therefore hardly come as a surprise that with Wilson still clearly bearish, his advice to clients is \"<b>don’t get too caught up in last week’s strong rebound from Monday’s sharp sell off\"</b>which he views as a clean break of the uptrend and a filling of the gap created from Monday's crack. And with the technical picture murky, \"<b>that's a time to trust the fundamental and cycle analyses which suggest lower equity prices ahead\"</b>and as growth decelerates and financial conditions tighten, valuations are likely to fall from their lofty levels.</p><p><blockquote>因此，由于威尔逊仍然明显看跌，他给客户的建议是“<b>不要太沉迷于上周从周一大幅抛售中的强劲反弹”</b>他认为这是对上升趋势的彻底突破，并填补了周一缺口造成的缺口。由于技术情况不明朗，”<b>现在是相信基本面和周期分析的时候了，这些分析表明未来股价会下跌。”</b>随着增长放缓和金融状况收紧，估值可能会从高位回落。</blockquote></p><p> * * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p> With all that in mind, Wilson goes back to his core fundamental thesis which is simple: after a blockbuster Q2 season, earnings are set to drop substantially as a result of the margin compression we discussed most recently over the weekend, to wit:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，威尔逊回到了他的核心基本论点，这个论点很简单：在经历了轰动一时的第二季度之后，由于我们最近在周末讨论的利润率压缩，盈利将大幅下降，即：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Since the second quarter of 2020 earnings results have come in much higher than consensus forecasts</b>. Earnings beats ranged from 14% - 22% over this period while the median beat rate since 2008 is only 5%...We do not think companies will continue to beat at such an unprecedented rate and believe 3Q could see a material change in the more recent trend as supply chain issues and labor shortages pose a risk to both top line and margins.  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e643723cfa540ad52a1dcebcba24f3\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><b>自2020年第二季度以来，盈利结果远高于市场普遍预期</b>在此期间，盈利超出预期范围为14%-22%，而自2008年以来的中位超出预期率仅为5%……我们认为公司不会继续以如此前所未有的速度超出预期，并相信第三季度可能会出现重大变化随着供应链问题和劳动力短缺对营收和利润率构成风险，最近的趋势。</blockquote></p><p>   We looked at how 3Q earnings estimate revisions have trended at the industry group and sector level. Significant cuts have occurred in insurance, capital goods and transportation.   <b>Consumer Durables is the only area that has seen significant positive revisions at the industry group level. 3Q S&amp;P 500 estimates have fallen by 77 bps over past 4 weeks. We expect more downside.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5496394c7a42ab136f68ba74c64cf83\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6beae58fd458a45024d160d45b4684\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>我们研究了行业组和行业层面第三季度盈利预测修正的趋势。保险、资本货物和运输都出现了大幅削减。<b>耐用消费品是行业集团层面唯一出现重大积极修正的领域。过去4周，第三季度标普500预期下降了77个基点。我们预计会有更多的下行空间。</b></blockquote></p><p> No surprises there, as the margin compression story is a familiar one (\"Margins Crushed As Producer Prices Explode At Record Pace In July\"). To Wilson, however, this is the story and one which the market refuses to even consider:</p><p><blockquote>这并不奇怪，因为利润率压缩的故事是一个熟悉的故事（“随着7月份生产者价格以创纪录的速度爆炸，利润率被压垮”）。然而，对威尔逊来说，这是一个市场甚至拒绝考虑的故事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>2022 consensus margin estimates are historically lofty...</b>we examine the risks to margins in coming quarters through two different top down approaches. The spread between GDP growth and wage growth correlates fairly closely with operating margins over time. Based on our economists' estimates<b>, this spread should decelerate in coming quarters, which suggests margins should contract, not expand as bottom-up consensus expects</b>.</p><p><blockquote><b>2022年共识利润率预期处于历史高位……</b>我们通过两种不同的自上而下的方法来研究未来几个季度的利润率风险。随着时间的推移，GDP增长和工资增长之间的利差与营业利润率密切相关。基于我们经济学家的估计<b>这种利差应该会在未来几个季度减速，这表明利润率应该收缩，而不是像自下而上的共识预期的那样扩大</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e80ec048b5856ebf2159d1d9d0151334\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Further, corporate transcript mentions of \"cost pressures\" and related terms are historically elevated. When this has happened in the past, margins have consolidated.</p><p><blockquote>此外，公司记录中提及“成本压力”和相关术语的数量历来较高。当这种情况在过去发生时，利润率已经巩固。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c8fcfa4bb23d953d8c2079bc1a0ec5\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson's final bearish point is that companies are reaching the limit on how much of rising input costs they can pass on to consumers. As he puts it, while \"many investors that we speak to are optimistic about corporates' ability to pass on cost through pricing and protect margins\" he would caution that \"prices in several consumer end markets are already at a level that is inhibiting demand. We think the risk of this dynamic (high prices leading to demand destruction) spreading to other areas of consumer demand is especially elevated because goods consumption is already so far above trend—<b>in other words, high prices are that much more of a deterrent given households have already overconsumed in many areas.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>威尔逊的最后一个看跌观点是，企业将投入成本上升转嫁给消费者的程度已经达到了极限。正如他所说，虽然“我们采访的许多投资者对企业通过定价转嫁成本和保护利润的能力持乐观态度”，但他警告说，“几个消费终端市场的价格已经处于抑制需求的水平。我们认为这种动态（高价格导致需求破坏）蔓延到消费者需求其他领域的风险尤其高，因为商品消费已经远远高于趋势——<b>换句话说，鉴于许多地区的家庭已经过度消费，高物价更具威慑力。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216bbe5eae73445b35a9152e741dccef\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Translation: absent another multi-trillion stimmy - and thanks to the chaos in the democratic party we know one is unlikely to come - Wilson's call for a 20% drop in stocks in the next few months remains intact.</p><p><blockquote>翻译：如果没有另一个数万亿美元的刺激——由于民主党的混乱，我们知道不太可能出现——威尔逊未来几个月股市下跌20%的看涨期权仍然完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley Dismisses Market's \"Strong Rebound\", Remains Bearish On Coming Earnings Disappointment<blockquote>摩根士丹利否认市场“强劲反弹”，对即将到来的盈利令人失望仍持悲观态度</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-28 08:06</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumbling on Evergrande default fears, Wilson emerged from his faux-bull cocoon (havingraised his year-end S&amp;P price target from 3,900 to 4,000 in Augustin a note that reeked of disgust with what he was being told to do) and warned that an \"Ice is coming\", referring to a 20% drop in stocks as opposed to the more modest 10% correction envisioned in his \"fire\" scenario, saying that \"<b>the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction</b>\", a drop he expects will take place some time this fall.</p><p><blockquote>上周一的短短几个小时内，摩根士丹利首席经济学家感到自己被证明是正确的：随着股市因恒大违约担忧而暴跌，威尔逊从他的假牛市茧中走了出来（在奥古斯丁将年终标准普尔目标价从3,900点上调至4,000点）对他被告知要做的事情感到厌恶）并警告说“冰即将到来”，指的是股市将下跌20%，而不是他在“火灾”情景中设想的更温和的10%调整，他说“<b>“冰”情景开始看起来更有可能，并可能导致更具破坏性的结果——即20%以上的修正</b>”，他预计今年秋天的某个时候会出现下降。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d87b7fac22f1a1f5db68fec641fc7528\" tg-width=\"703\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Wilson also predicted that with earnings growth and PMIs set to drop, it would adversely impact forward PE multiples and by extension the S&amp;P.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊还预测，随着盈利增长和采购经理人指数下降，这将对远期市盈率以及标准普尔指数产生不利影响。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45afcf0068538b4f56bc85f42af9e52f\" tg-width=\"1233\" tg-height=\"431\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Well, what a difference 7 days makes: with Evergrande default fears now long forgotten with little to no offshore contagion,&nbsp;the S&amp;P is almost 150 points from its \"Evergrande Monday\" lows and once again pushing back toward all time highs (even if with a major rotation in the leadership as tech stocks are now sliding, having been replaced by value, cyclical and reopening names) in the process yet again foiling Wilson's bearish visions.</p><p><blockquote>好吧，7天的变化是多么大：随着恒大违约的担忧现在早已被遗忘，几乎没有离岸蔓延，标准普尔指数距离“恒大周一”低点近150点，并再次推回到历史高点（即使随着科技股目前下滑，已被价值股、周期性股和重新开放股所取代，领导层发生了重大轮换），这再次挫败了威尔逊的看跌愿景。</blockquote></p><p> So has the market's sharp post-opex bounce changed the mind of the chief strategist that this seemingly invincible market will never go down again more than just a token 5% move?</p><p><blockquote>那么，运营支出后市场的大幅反弹是否改变了首席策略师的想法，即这个看似不可战胜的市场永远不会再次下跌，而不仅仅是象征性的5%波动？</blockquote></p><p> Today we got the answer in Wilson's latest weekly warm-up not, in which he makes it clear that his bearish outlook remains, and as he explains, \"our process tells us the risk-reward remains unattractive at the index level given slowing growth and rising rates. Meanwhile, price action can be interpreted bullishly or bearishly.&nbsp;<b>With 3Q earnings season likely to bring a much more muted outcome, we remain defensive in our positioning.</b>\"</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们在威尔逊最新的每周热身中得到了答案，他在其中明确表示，他的看跌前景仍然存在，正如他解释的那样，“我们的流程告诉我们，鉴于增长放缓和利率上升，风险回报在指数水平上仍然没有吸引力。与此同时，价格走势可以被解读为看涨或看跌。<b>由于第三季度财报季可能会带来更加温和的结果，我们的定位仍然是防御性的。</b>\"</blockquote></p><p> We'll get to why in a second, but first Wilson - realizing that he would get a criticism for what many viewed as a premature victory lap - spends the first few paragraphs of his latest note going over the details of his analytical process. This is how he lays it out:</p><p><blockquote>我们稍后会解释原因，但首先威尔逊意识到他会因为许多人认为他过早获胜而受到批评，他在最新笔记的前几段回顾了他的分析过程的细节。他是这样布局的：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Our equity strategy process has several key components. Most importantly, we focus on the fundamentals of growth and valuation to determine whether the overall market is attractive and which sectors and stocks look the best/worst.</b>The rate of change on growth is more important than the absolute level, and we use a market-based equity risk premium framework that works well as long as you apply the correct regime when using it. In that regard, we’re an avid student of market cycles and believe historical analogs can be helpful. For example, the mid cycle transition narrative that has worked so well this year is derived directly from our study of historical economic and market cycles.    <b>The final component we spend a lot of time on is price.</b>While most would call this technical analysis, we’d like to think we do it a little bit differently. Markets aren’t always efficient, but we believe they are often very good leading indicators for the fundamentals—the ultimate driver of value. This is especially true if one looks at the internal movements and relative strength of individual securities. In short,   <b>we find these internals to be much more helpful than simply looking at the major averages.</b>    <b>This year, we think the process has lived up to its promise quite well with the price action lining up nicely with the fundamental backdrop.</b>In short, the large cap quality leadership since March is signaling what we believe is about to happen—i.e., decelerating growth and tightening financial conditions. The question for investors is whether the price action has fully discounted those outcomes.  With that disclosure in hand, and with the clear understanding that at least in his view investors are not discounting any adverse outcomes at this point, Wilson proceeds to discuss the recent market action, noting that stocks<b>\"sold off hard last Monday on concerns about the Evergrande bankruptcy\"</b>and while he adds that it is the Morgan Stanley \"house view\" that it likely won’t lead to a major financial contagion, \"it will probably weigh on China growth for the next few quarters which means that the growth deceleration we are expecting could be a bit worse.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>我们的股票策略流程有几个关键组成部分。最重要的是，我们关注增长和估值的基本面，以确定整体市场是否有吸引力，以及哪些板块和股票看起来最好/最差。</b>增长的变化率比绝对水平更重要，我们使用基于市场的股票风险溢价框架，只要您在使用时应用正确的制度，该框架就能很好地发挥作用。在这方面，我们是市场周期的热心学生，并相信历史类比会有所帮助。例如，今年表现良好的中期周期转型叙事直接来自我们对历史经济和市场周期的研究。<b>我们花费大量时间的最后一个因素是价格。</b>虽然大多数人会看涨期权这种技术分析，但我们认为我们做得有点不同。市场并不总是有效的，但我们相信它们通常是基本面（价值的最终驱动力）的非常好的领先指标。如果观察个别证券的内部走势和相对强度，情况尤其如此。总之，<b>我们发现这些内部因素比简单地查看主要平均值更有帮助。</b><b>今年，我们认为这一过程很好地兑现了其承诺，价格走势与基本面背景很好地一致。</b>简而言之，自3月份以来大盘股质量的领先地位发出了我们认为即将发生的事情的信号，即增长减速和金融状况收紧。投资者面临的问题是，价格走势是否完全低估了这些结果。有了这一披露，并清楚地认识到，至少在他看来，投资者目前并没有低估任何不利结果，威尔逊继续讨论最近的市场走势，指出股票<b>“上周一因担心恒大破产而遭到大量抛售”</b>虽然他补充说，摩根士丹利的“内部观点”是，这可能不会导致重大的金融危机蔓延，但“这可能会给中国未来几个季度的经济增长带来压力，这意味着我们预计的经济增长减速可能会更糟一点。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The other reason Wilson suggests was behind the market weakness early last week \"likely had to do with concern about the Fed articulating its plans to taper asset purchases later this year and perhaps even move up the timing of rate hikes to next year. On that score, the Fed did not disappoint as they pretty much told us to expect the taper to begin in December.<b>The surprise was the speed in which they expect to be done tapering—by mid 2022.</b>This is about a quarter sooner than the market had been anticipating and does move up the odds for a rate hike in 2022.\"</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊表示，上周初市场疲软背后的另一个原因“可能与担心美联储阐明其在今年晚些时候缩减资产购买计划，甚至可能将加息时间提前到明年有关。在这一点上，美联储并没有让人失望，因为他们几乎告诉我们预计缩减将在12月开始。<b>令人惊讶的是他们预计到2022年中期完成缩减的速度。</b>这比市场预期提前了约四分之一，确实增加了2022年加息的可能性。”</blockquote></p><p> Curiously last week's rally happened in the aftermath of the market's perplexing kneejerk response to the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when stocks rallied even as bonds sold off sharply, particularly at the back end. Real 10-year yields were up 11bps in 2 days and are now up 31bps in just 8 weeks (Exhibit 1). That according to Wilson is \"tightening of financial conditions for sure\" and should weigh on PEs overall but it also has big implications for what should work at the sector/style level (Exhibit 2).</p><p><blockquote>奇怪的是，上周的反弹发生在市场对周三美联储会议做出令人困惑的下意识反应之后，当时尽管债券大幅抛售，尤其是在后端，股市仍上涨。实际10年期国债收益率在两天内上涨了11个基点，现在在短短8周内上涨了31个基点（图表1）。根据威尔逊的说法，这是“金融状况肯定会收紧”，应该会对整体市盈率造成压力，但它也对行业/风格层面的工作产生重大影响（图表2）。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6f0bb937e8d564694c06b7e1362bd81\" tg-width=\"1035\" tg-height=\"266\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In short, Wilson digs in and claims that higher real rates should mean lower P/Es overall which likely means lower S&amp;P 500, thus validating his bearish view which still sees the S&amp;P dropping some 20% from its current perch to hit 4,000 by year end. However, he concedes, \"it may also mean value over growth and small caps over Nasdaq even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，Wilson深入研究并声称，较高的实际利率应该意味着较低的整体市盈率，这可能意味着较低的标普500，从而验证了他的看跌观点，即标准普尔指数仍将从目前的水平下跌约20%，到年底触及4,000点。然而，他承认，“这也可能意味着价值超过增长，小盘股超过纳斯达克，即使整体股市走低。”</blockquote></p><p> Which brings us to the key question we spent quite some time discussing last week, namely<b>why did stocks rally so much into the end of the week</b>on what Wilson says are odds that growth will decelerate more than expected from Evergrande and financial conditions may tighten faster?</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了我们上星期花了相当长时间讨论的关键问题，即<b>为什么股市在本周末大幅上涨</b>威尔逊认为恒大经济增长放缓幅度超过预期且财务状况可能更快收紧的可能性有多大？</blockquote></p><p> Here Wilson is at least honest - as he puts it - and says \"we’re not sure but we think this may be a time when the markets are playing tricks on investors and even setting a bit of a trap.\" Actually it's simpler than that and has to do with thegamma reversal and technical flows we pointed out last week, but one has to be a \"greek geek\" - like Nomura's Charlie McElligott - to get that.</p><p><blockquote>在这里，威尔逊至少是诚实的——正如他所说——并表示“我们不确定，但我们认为这可能是市场在捉弄投资者，甚至设置一点陷阱的时候。”实际上，这比这更简单，与我们上周指出的伽马反转和技术流有关，但必须是“希腊极客”——比如野村证券的查理·麦克埃利戈特——才能理解这一点。</blockquote></p><p> The other explanation proposed by Wilson is \"that investors were somewhat positioned for bad news going into the Fed meeting and the actual event simply served as a relief that it didn’t lead lower prices. This price action drove many investors to chase on Thursday for fear of missing out.<b>In short, don’t underestimate the power of price to determine how investors interpret the facts.</b>Just like negative price action can get people to sell the lows, positive price action can force people to buy\", he concludes.</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊提出的另一种解释是，“投资者在某种程度上对美联储会议的坏消息做好了准备，而实际事件只是让人松了一口气，因为它没有导致价格下跌。这种价格走势促使许多投资者在周四追逐，因为害怕错过。<b>简而言之，不要低估价格决定投资者如何解读事实的力量。</b>就像负面的价格行为可以让人们在低点卖出一样，积极的价格行为可以迫使人们买入”，他总结道。</blockquote></p><p> Whatever the reason for the initial bounce, it quickly accelerated and there was \"a lot of excitement last Thursday when stocks rallied sharply back above the 50 day moving average, a key barometer for many and a key level of support throughout this year for the S&amp;P 500.\" That this happened when the 50DMA was broken \"on near record levels of volume in both the cash and derivatives markets\" only punctuated the strength of the rebound. By Friday, that moving average had been reclaimed and closed above it for the week, an important technical win as even Wilson admits. However, he then adds, from his vantage point, \"the very well defined uptrend that has been established over the past year was broken and not reclaimed. Instead, it looks like the rally from Wednesday to Friday was simply \"filling the gap\" created from Monday's break.\"</p><p><blockquote>无论最初反弹的原因是什么，它很快就加速了，“上周四，当股市大幅反弹回到50日移动平均线上方时，人们非常兴奋，这是许多人的关键晴雨表，也是今年标普500的关键支撑位。”这种情况发生在“现金和衍生品市场成交量接近创纪录水平”的50日均线被突破时，这只会加剧反弹的强度。到周五，该移动平均线已被收复，并在本周收于该移动平均线之上，就连威尔逊也承认，这是一次重要的技术胜利。然而，他随后补充道，从他的角度来看，“过去一年建立的非常明确的上升趋势被打破了，没有恢复。相反，看起来周三至周五的反弹只是‘填补了缺口’。”周一休息。”</blockquote></p><p> His conclusion on upcoming market action will hardly come as a surprise to those who have followed Wilson's progressive pessimism across 2021: pointing to the market's inability to recover its prior trendline, he says \"this leaves the technical picture very uncertain in our view and one can now break either way. With our fundamental view skewing poorly at the moment, we lean to the bearish outcome.\"</p><p><blockquote>对于那些关注威尔逊在2021年逐步悲观情绪的人来说，他关于即将到来的市场行动的结论并不令人惊讶：他指出市场无法恢复之前的趋势线，他表示，“这使得我们认为技术面非常不确定，现在可以打破任何一种方式。由于我们的基本面观点目前不佳，我们倾向于看跌结果。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41fc56e35f140c96104f8d8aa0826fd3\" tg-width=\"1100\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Getting back to his process, Wilson then says that he has high conviction that \"earnings growth is likely to decelerate more than what the current consensus is forecasting.\" Furthermore, he thinks the market is starting to agree with that view and points to market breadth as a good leading indicator for earnings revision breadth where he says \"direction is clear\" and pointing to the newly shrinking market breadth, he reminds readers that earnings revision breadth is a good leading indicator for the overall market.</p><p><blockquote>回到他的过程，威尔逊随后表示，他坚信“盈利增长的减速可能会超过当前共识的预测。”此外，他认为市场开始同意这一观点，并指出市场广度是盈利修正广度的良好领先指标，他说“方向很明确”，并指出新萎缩的市场广度，他提醒读者，盈利修正广度是整体市场的良好领先指标。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It will therefore hardly come as a surprise that with Wilson still clearly bearish, his advice to clients is \"<b>don’t get too caught up in last week’s strong rebound from Monday’s sharp sell off\"</b>which he views as a clean break of the uptrend and a filling of the gap created from Monday's crack. And with the technical picture murky, \"<b>that's a time to trust the fundamental and cycle analyses which suggest lower equity prices ahead\"</b>and as growth decelerates and financial conditions tighten, valuations are likely to fall from their lofty levels.</p><p><blockquote>因此，由于威尔逊仍然明显看跌，他给客户的建议是“<b>不要太沉迷于上周从周一大幅抛售中的强劲反弹”</b>他认为这是对上升趋势的彻底突破，并填补了周一缺口造成的缺口。由于技术情况不明朗，”<b>现在是相信基本面和周期分析的时候了，这些分析表明未来股价会下跌。”</b>随着增长放缓和金融状况收紧，估值可能会从高位回落。</blockquote></p><p> * * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p> With all that in mind, Wilson goes back to his core fundamental thesis which is simple: after a blockbuster Q2 season, earnings are set to drop substantially as a result of the margin compression we discussed most recently over the weekend, to wit:</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，威尔逊回到了他的核心基本论点，这个论点很简单：在经历了轰动一时的第二季度之后，由于我们最近在周末讨论的利润率压缩，盈利将大幅下降，即：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Since the second quarter of 2020 earnings results have come in much higher than consensus forecasts</b>. Earnings beats ranged from 14% - 22% over this period while the median beat rate since 2008 is only 5%...We do not think companies will continue to beat at such an unprecedented rate and believe 3Q could see a material change in the more recent trend as supply chain issues and labor shortages pose a risk to both top line and margins.  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e643723cfa540ad52a1dcebcba24f3\" tg-width=\"722\" tg-height=\"433\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote><b>自2020年第二季度以来，盈利结果远高于市场普遍预期</b>在此期间，盈利超出预期范围为14%-22%，而自2008年以来的中位超出预期率仅为5%……我们认为公司不会继续以如此前所未有的速度超出预期，并相信第三季度可能会出现重大变化随着供应链问题和劳动力短缺对营收和利润率构成风险，最近的趋势。</blockquote></p><p>   We looked at how 3Q earnings estimate revisions have trended at the industry group and sector level. Significant cuts have occurred in insurance, capital goods and transportation.   <b>Consumer Durables is the only area that has seen significant positive revisions at the industry group level. 3Q S&amp;P 500 estimates have fallen by 77 bps over past 4 weeks. We expect more downside.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5496394c7a42ab136f68ba74c64cf83\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"451\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef6beae58fd458a45024d160d45b4684\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"459\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>我们研究了行业组和行业层面第三季度盈利预测修正的趋势。保险、资本货物和运输都出现了大幅削减。<b>耐用消费品是行业集团层面唯一出现重大积极修正的领域。过去4周，第三季度标普500预期下降了77个基点。我们预计会有更多的下行空间。</b></blockquote></p><p> No surprises there, as the margin compression story is a familiar one (\"Margins Crushed As Producer Prices Explode At Record Pace In July\"). To Wilson, however, this is the story and one which the market refuses to even consider:</p><p><blockquote>这并不奇怪，因为利润率压缩的故事是一个熟悉的故事（“随着7月份生产者价格以创纪录的速度爆炸，利润率被压垮”）。然而，对威尔逊来说，这是一个市场甚至拒绝考虑的故事：</blockquote></p><p> <b>2022 consensus margin estimates are historically lofty...</b>we examine the risks to margins in coming quarters through two different top down approaches. The spread between GDP growth and wage growth correlates fairly closely with operating margins over time. Based on our economists' estimates<b>, this spread should decelerate in coming quarters, which suggests margins should contract, not expand as bottom-up consensus expects</b>.</p><p><blockquote><b>2022年共识利润率预期处于历史高位……</b>我们通过两种不同的自上而下的方法来研究未来几个季度的利润率风险。随着时间的推移，GDP增长和工资增长之间的利差与营业利润率密切相关。基于我们经济学家的估计<b>这种利差应该会在未来几个季度减速，这表明利润率应该收缩，而不是像自下而上的共识预期的那样扩大</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e80ec048b5856ebf2159d1d9d0151334\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"578\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Further, corporate transcript mentions of \"cost pressures\" and related terms are historically elevated. When this has happened in the past, margins have consolidated.</p><p><blockquote>此外，公司记录中提及“成本压力”和相关术语的数量历来较高。当这种情况在过去发生时，利润率已经巩固。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/42c8fcfa4bb23d953d8c2079bc1a0ec5\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"540\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson's final bearish point is that companies are reaching the limit on how much of rising input costs they can pass on to consumers. As he puts it, while \"many investors that we speak to are optimistic about corporates' ability to pass on cost through pricing and protect margins\" he would caution that \"prices in several consumer end markets are already at a level that is inhibiting demand. We think the risk of this dynamic (high prices leading to demand destruction) spreading to other areas of consumer demand is especially elevated because goods consumption is already so far above trend—<b>in other words, high prices are that much more of a deterrent given households have already overconsumed in many areas.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>威尔逊的最后一个看跌观点是，企业将投入成本上升转嫁给消费者的程度已经达到了极限。正如他所说，虽然“我们采访的许多投资者对企业通过定价转嫁成本和保护利润的能力持乐观态度”，但他警告说，“几个消费终端市场的价格已经处于抑制需求的水平。我们认为这种动态（高价格导致需求破坏）蔓延到消费者需求其他领域的风险尤其高，因为商品消费已经远远高于趋势——<b>换句话说，鉴于许多地区的家庭已经过度消费，高物价更具威慑力。”</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/216bbe5eae73445b35a9152e741dccef\" tg-width=\"1009\" tg-height=\"801\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Translation: absent another multi-trillion stimmy - and thanks to the chaos in the democratic party we know one is unlikely to come - Wilson's call for a 20% drop in stocks in the next few months remains intact.</p><p><blockquote>翻译：如果没有另一个数万亿美元的刺激——由于民主党的混乱，我们知道不太可能出现——威尔逊未来几个月股市下跌20%的看涨期权仍然完好无损。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-dismisses-strong-rebound-remains-bearish-coming-earnings-disappointment\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-dismisses-strong-rebound-remains-bearish-coming-earnings-disappointment","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166571782","content_text":"For just a few hours last Monday, Morgan Stanley's chief economist felt vindicated: with stocks tumbling on Evergrande default fears, Wilson emerged from his faux-bull cocoon (havingraised his year-end S&P price target from 3,900 to 4,000 in Augustin a note that reeked of disgust with what he was being told to do) and warned that an \"Ice is coming\", referring to a 20% drop in stocks as opposed to the more modest 10% correction envisioned in his \"fire\" scenario, saying that \"the \"ice\" scenario is starting to look more likely, and could result in a more destructive outcome – i.e. a 20%+ correction\", a drop he expects will take place some time this fall.\nWilson also predicted that with earnings growth and PMIs set to drop, it would adversely impact forward PE multiples and by extension the S&P.\n\nWell, what a difference 7 days makes: with Evergrande default fears now long forgotten with little to no offshore contagion, the S&P is almost 150 points from its \"Evergrande Monday\" lows and once again pushing back toward all time highs (even if with a major rotation in the leadership as tech stocks are now sliding, having been replaced by value, cyclical and reopening names) in the process yet again foiling Wilson's bearish visions.\nSo has the market's sharp post-opex bounce changed the mind of the chief strategist that this seemingly invincible market will never go down again more than just a token 5% move?\nToday we got the answer in Wilson's latest weekly warm-up not, in which he makes it clear that his bearish outlook remains, and as he explains, \"our process tells us the risk-reward remains unattractive at the index level given slowing growth and rising rates. Meanwhile, price action can be interpreted bullishly or bearishly. With 3Q earnings season likely to bring a much more muted outcome, we remain defensive in our positioning.\"\nWe'll get to why in a second, but first Wilson - realizing that he would get a criticism for what many viewed as a premature victory lap - spends the first few paragraphs of his latest note going over the details of his analytical process. This is how he lays it out:\n\nOur equity strategy process has several key components. Most importantly, we focus on the fundamentals of growth and valuation to determine whether the overall market is attractive and which sectors and stocks look the best/worst.The rate of change on growth is more important than the absolute level, and we use a market-based equity risk premium framework that works well as long as you apply the correct regime when using it. In that regard, we’re an avid student of market cycles and believe historical analogs can be helpful. For example, the mid cycle transition narrative that has worked so well this year is derived directly from our study of historical economic and market cycles.\n\n\nThe final component we spend a lot of time on is price.While most would call this technical analysis, we’d like to think we do it a little bit differently. Markets aren’t always efficient, but we believe they are often very good leading indicators for the fundamentals—the ultimate driver of value. This is especially true if one looks at the internal movements and relative strength of individual securities. In short, \n we find these internals to be much more helpful than simply looking at the major averages.\n\n\nThis year, we think the process has lived up to its promise quite well with the price action lining up nicely with the fundamental backdrop.In short, the large cap quality leadership since March is signaling what we believe is about to happen—i.e., decelerating growth and tightening financial conditions. The question for investors is whether the price action has fully discounted those outcomes.\n\nWith that disclosure in hand, and with the clear understanding that at least in his view investors are not discounting any adverse outcomes at this point, Wilson proceeds to discuss the recent market action, noting that stocks\"sold off hard last Monday on concerns about the Evergrande bankruptcy\"and while he adds that it is the Morgan Stanley \"house view\" that it likely won’t lead to a major financial contagion, \"it will probably weigh on China growth for the next few quarters which means that the growth deceleration we are expecting could be a bit worse.\"\nThe other reason Wilson suggests was behind the market weakness early last week \"likely had to do with concern about the Fed articulating its plans to taper asset purchases later this year and perhaps even move up the timing of rate hikes to next year. On that score, the Fed did not disappoint as they pretty much told us to expect the taper to begin in December.The surprise was the speed in which they expect to be done tapering—by mid 2022.This is about a quarter sooner than the market had been anticipating and does move up the odds for a rate hike in 2022.\"\nCuriously last week's rally happened in the aftermath of the market's perplexing kneejerk response to the Fed meeting on Wednesday, when stocks rallied even as bonds sold off sharply, particularly at the back end. Real 10-year yields were up 11bps in 2 days and are now up 31bps in just 8 weeks (Exhibit 1). That according to Wilson is \"tightening of financial conditions for sure\" and should weigh on PEs overall but it also has big implications for what should work at the sector/style level (Exhibit 2).\n\nIn short, Wilson digs in and claims that higher real rates should mean lower P/Es overall which likely means lower S&P 500, thus validating his bearish view which still sees the S&P dropping some 20% from its current perch to hit 4,000 by year end. However, he concedes, \"it may also mean value over growth and small caps over Nasdaq even as the overall equity market goes lower.\"\nWhich brings us to the key question we spent quite some time discussing last week, namelywhy did stocks rally so much into the end of the weekon what Wilson says are odds that growth will decelerate more than expected from Evergrande and financial conditions may tighten faster?\nHere Wilson is at least honest - as he puts it - and says \"we’re not sure but we think this may be a time when the markets are playing tricks on investors and even setting a bit of a trap.\" Actually it's simpler than that and has to do with thegamma reversal and technical flows we pointed out last week, but one has to be a \"greek geek\" - like Nomura's Charlie McElligott - to get that.\nThe other explanation proposed by Wilson is \"that investors were somewhat positioned for bad news going into the Fed meeting and the actual event simply served as a relief that it didn’t lead lower prices. This price action drove many investors to chase on Thursday for fear of missing out.In short, don’t underestimate the power of price to determine how investors interpret the facts.Just like negative price action can get people to sell the lows, positive price action can force people to buy\", he concludes.\nWhatever the reason for the initial bounce, it quickly accelerated and there was \"a lot of excitement last Thursday when stocks rallied sharply back above the 50 day moving average, a key barometer for many and a key level of support throughout this year for the S&P 500.\" That this happened when the 50DMA was broken \"on near record levels of volume in both the cash and derivatives markets\" only punctuated the strength of the rebound. By Friday, that moving average had been reclaimed and closed above it for the week, an important technical win as even Wilson admits. However, he then adds, from his vantage point, \"the very well defined uptrend that has been established over the past year was broken and not reclaimed. Instead, it looks like the rally from Wednesday to Friday was simply \"filling the gap\" created from Monday's break.\"\nHis conclusion on upcoming market action will hardly come as a surprise to those who have followed Wilson's progressive pessimism across 2021: pointing to the market's inability to recover its prior trendline, he says \"this leaves the technical picture very uncertain in our view and one can now break either way. With our fundamental view skewing poorly at the moment, we lean to the bearish outcome.\"\n\nGetting back to his process, Wilson then says that he has high conviction that \"earnings growth is likely to decelerate more than what the current consensus is forecasting.\" Furthermore, he thinks the market is starting to agree with that view and points to market breadth as a good leading indicator for earnings revision breadth where he says \"direction is clear\" and pointing to the newly shrinking market breadth, he reminds readers that earnings revision breadth is a good leading indicator for the overall market.\nIt will therefore hardly come as a surprise that with Wilson still clearly bearish, his advice to clients is \"don’t get too caught up in last week’s strong rebound from Monday’s sharp sell off\"which he views as a clean break of the uptrend and a filling of the gap created from Monday's crack. And with the technical picture murky, \"that's a time to trust the fundamental and cycle analyses which suggest lower equity prices ahead\"and as growth decelerates and financial conditions tighten, valuations are likely to fall from their lofty levels.\n* * *\nWith all that in mind, Wilson goes back to his core fundamental thesis which is simple: after a blockbuster Q2 season, earnings are set to drop substantially as a result of the margin compression we discussed most recently over the weekend, to wit:\n\nSince the second quarter of 2020 earnings results have come in much higher than consensus forecasts. Earnings beats ranged from 14% - 22% over this period while the median beat rate since 2008 is only 5%...We do not think companies will continue to beat at such an unprecedented rate and believe 3Q could see a material change in the more recent trend as supply chain issues and labor shortages pose a risk to both top line and margins.\n\n\n\n We looked at how 3Q earnings estimate revisions have trended at the industry group and sector level. Significant cuts have occurred in insurance, capital goods and transportation. \n Consumer Durables is the only area that has seen significant positive revisions at the industry group level. 3Q S&P 500 estimates have fallen by 77 bps over past 4 weeks. We expect more downside.\n\n\nNo surprises there, as the margin compression story is a familiar one (\"Margins Crushed As Producer Prices Explode At Record Pace In July\"). To Wilson, however, this is the story and one which the market refuses to even consider:\n2022 consensus margin estimates are historically lofty...we examine the risks to margins in coming quarters through two different top down approaches. The spread between GDP growth and wage growth correlates fairly closely with operating margins over time. Based on our economists' estimates, this spread should decelerate in coming quarters, which suggests margins should contract, not expand as bottom-up consensus expects.\n\nFurther, corporate transcript mentions of \"cost pressures\" and related terms are historically elevated. When this has happened in the past, margins have consolidated.\n\nWilson's final bearish point is that companies are reaching the limit on how much of rising input costs they can pass on to consumers. As he puts it, while \"many investors that we speak to are optimistic about corporates' ability to pass on cost through pricing and protect margins\" he would caution that \"prices in several consumer end markets are already at a level that is inhibiting demand. We think the risk of this dynamic (high prices leading to demand destruction) spreading to other areas of consumer demand is especially elevated because goods consumption is already so far above trend—in other words, high prices are that much more of a deterrent given households have already overconsumed in many areas.\"\n\nTranslation: absent another multi-trillion stimmy - and thanks to the chaos in the democratic party we know one is unlikely to come - Wilson's call for a 20% drop in stocks in the next few months remains intact.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":177421549,"gmtCreate":1627258407481,"gmtModify":1631892155863,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"6 out of 17 is biopharma/medical related... tailwind of&nbsp;covid!","listText":"6 out of 17 is biopharma/medical related... tailwind of&nbsp;covid!","text":"6 out of 17 is biopharma/medical related... tailwind of covid!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177421549","repostId":"1118041582","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118041582","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627175995,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118041582?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 09:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: 17 IPOs are coming<blockquote>未来一周美国IPO：17家IPO即将上市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118041582","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"After another week of record activity, the IPO market is expected to remain hot with 17 IPOs schedul","content":"<p>After another week of record activity, the IPO market is expected to remain hot with 17 IPOs scheduled for the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在又一周创纪录的活动之后，IPO市场预计将保持火热，未来一周将有17起IPO。</blockquote></p><p> Long-awaited retail brokerage&nbsp;<b>Robinhood Markets</b>(HOOD) plans to raise $2.2 billion at a $36.8 billion market cap. The company offers a no-commission retail brokerage platform with over 18 million MAUs. Despite triple-digit revenue growth in the 1Q21, the platform is dependent on trading volumes, and the recent retail trading boom may be unsustainable.</p><p><blockquote>期待已久的零售经纪业务<b>罗宾汉市场</b>(HOOD)计划以368亿美元的市值筹集22亿美元。该公司提供无佣金零售经纪平台，月活跃用户数超过1800万。尽管2021年第一季度的收入实现了三位数的增长，但该平台依赖于交易量，最近的零售交易热潮可能难以为继。</blockquote></p><p> Vehicle battery maker&nbsp;<b>Clarios International</b>(BTRY) plans to raise $1.7 billion at a $9.7 billion market cap. The company manufactures low-voltage vehicles batteries globally, stating that it has the number one market position in the Americas and EMEA. Profitable on an EBIT basis, Clarios saw revenue growth accelerate in the 1H FY21 after turning negative in the FY20 due to COVID.</p><p><blockquote>汽车电池制造商<b>Clarios International</b>(BTRY)计划以97亿美元的市值筹集17亿美元。该公司在全球范围内生产低压汽车电池，并表示其在美洲和欧洲、中东和非洲地区拥有第一的市场地位。在息税前利润的基础上，Clarios的收入增长在2020财年因新冠疫情而转为负值后，在2021财年上半年加速。</blockquote></p><p> Altice’s ad-tech platform&nbsp;<b>Teads</b>(TEAD) plans to raise $751 million at a $4.6 billion market cap. Teads operates a cloud-based programmatic digital advertising platform for advertisers and publishers. Profitable with solid growth, Teads provides monetization services to about 3,100 publishers.</p><p><blockquote>Altice的广告技术平台<b>Teads</b>(TEAD)计划以46亿美元的市值筹集7.51亿美元。Teads为广告商和出版商运营一个基于云的程序化数字广告平台。Teads盈利稳健增长，为约3,100家出版商提供货币化服务。</blockquote></p><p> Education software provider&nbsp;<b>PowerSchool Holdings</b>(PWSC) plans to raise $750 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. The company provides an education platform for teachers to manage classroom activities such as collecting work and grading assignments. Serving over 12,000 customers in over 90 countries globally, PowerSchool turned profitable on a net income basis in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>教育软件提供商<b>动力学校控股</b>(PWSC)计划以37亿美元的市值筹集7.5亿美元。该公司为教师提供了一个教育平台，用于管理课堂活动，如收集作业和评分作业。PowerSchool为全球90多个国家的12,000多名客户提供服务，在2021年第一季度实现了净利润盈利。</blockquote></p><p> After withdrawing its IPO attempt in 2018,<b>Dole</b>(DOLE) plans to raise $559 million at a $2.0 billion market cap. This leading fruit and vegetable company offers over 300 products sourced from over 30 countries to over 80 countries globally. Slow growing and profitable, Dole's offering is being made in connection with its merger with Total Produce.</p><p><blockquote>在2018年撤回IPO尝试后，<b>多尔</b>（都乐）计划以20亿美元的市值筹集5.59亿美元。这家领先的水果和蔬菜公司向全球80多个国家提供来自30多个国家的300多种产品。都乐增长缓慢且盈利，其产品是与Total Product合并时推出的。</blockquote></p><p> Language learning platform&nbsp;<b>Duolingo</b>(DUOL) plans to raise $460 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. Duolingo provides an online platform for over 300 million users to learn over 30 new languages. Benefiting from a COVID-related boost in demand, Duolingo posted triple-digit growth in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>语言学习平台<b>多邻国</b>(DUOL)计划以41亿美元的市值筹集4.6亿美元。多邻国为超过3亿用户提供了一个学习30多种新语言的在线平台。受益于与新冠疫情相关的需求增长，多邻国在2020年实现了三位数的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Traeger</b>(COOK) plans to raise $400 million at a $2.2 billion market cap. This company makes premium backyard wood pellet grills with a tech feature, allowing owners to program, monitor, and control their grill through the Traeger app. Traeger is a category leader of the wood pellet grill, growing revenue at a 28% CAGR from 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote><b>特雷格</b>（库克）计划以22亿美元的市值筹集4亿美元。这家公司生产具有技术功能的优质后院木质颗粒烤架，允许业主通过Traeger应用程序对他们的烤架进行编程、监控和控制。Traeger是木质颗粒烤架的类别领导者，从2017年到2020年，收入以28%的CAGR增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israeli anti-fraud firm&nbsp;<b>Riskified</b>(RSKD) plans to raise $333 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. This company provides e-commerce fraud protection for enterprises. Growing but unprofitable, Riskified saw its free cash flow swing positive in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>以色列反欺诈公司<b>风险化</b>(RSKD)计划以31亿美元的市值筹集3.33亿美元。这家公司为企业提供电子商务欺诈保护。Riskified不断增长但尚未盈利，其自由现金流在2021年第一季度上转为正值。</blockquote></p><p> Financial software provider&nbsp;<b>MeridianLink</b>(MLNK) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. MeridianLink offers a cloud-based digital lending and account opening platform for mid-market community banks and credit unions. Although business is cyclical, the company saw double-digit organic growth in the FY20 due to strong mortgage activity.</p><p><blockquote>财务软件提供商<b>子午线链接</b>(MLNK)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集3亿美元。MeridianLink为中端市场社区银行和信用合作社提供基于云的数字借贷和开户平台。尽管业务具有周期性，但由于强劲的抵押贷款活动，该公司在2020财年实现了两位数的有机增长。</blockquote></p><p> Smart home integration system&nbsp;<b>Snap One Holdings</b>(SNPO) plans to raise $270 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. This company provides smart home technology products to over 16,000 professional integrators. Snap One has demonstrated solid growth and was profitable on an EBIT basis in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>智能家居集成系统<b>Snap一号控股</b>(SNPO)计划以15亿美元的市值筹集2.7亿美元。该公司为超过16,000家专业集成商提供智能家居技术产品。Snap一号表现出稳健的增长，并在2021年第一季度按息税前利润计算实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Specialty funding solutions provider&nbsp;<b>Preston Hollow Community Capital</b>(PHCC) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. This company is a market leader in providing specialized impact financing solutions for projects of significant social and economic importance to local communities in the US. It serves a variety of areas, including infrastructure, education, healthcare, and housing.</p><p><blockquote>专业融资解决方案提供商<b>普雷斯顿霍洛社区资本</b>(PHCC)计划以23亿美元的市值筹集2亿美元。该公司是为对美国当地社区具有重大社会和经济重要性的项目提供专业影响力融资解决方案的市场领导者。它服务于各种领域，包括基础设施、教育、医疗保健和住房。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccine biotech&nbsp;<b>Icosavax</b>(ICVX) plans to raise $150 million at a $590 million market cap. This clinical stage biotech is initially focused on developing vaccines against infectious respiratory diseases using its virus-like particle platform technology. Its most advanced candidate is currently in a Phase 1/2 trial for SARS-CoV-2.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗生物技术<b>Icosavax</b>(ICVX)计划以5.9亿美元的市值筹集1.5亿美元。这一临床阶段的生物技术最初专注于利用其病毒样颗粒平台技术开发针对传染性呼吸道疾病的疫苗。其最先进的候选药物目前正处于新型冠状病毒病的1/2期试验中。</blockquote></p><p> Cancer biotech&nbsp;<b>Candel Therapeutics</b>(CADL) plans to raise $85 million at a $398 million market cap. Candel's most advanced candidate is currently in a Phase 3 trial in combination with prodrug valacyclovir for newly diagnosed localized prostate cancer with an intermediate or high-risk for progression. The company expects to complete enrollment in the 3Q21 with a final data readout in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>癌症生物技术<b>坎德尔治疗公司</b>(CADL)计划以3.98亿美元的市值筹集8500万美元。Candel最先进的候选药物目前正在与前药伐昔洛韦联合治疗新诊断的中度或高风险进展的局限性前列腺癌的3期试验中。该公司预计将在2024年完成2021年第三季度的注册并公布最终数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Rare disease biotech&nbsp;<b>Rallybio</b>(RLYB) plans to raise $81 million at a $465 million market cap. This clinical stage biotech is developing antibody therapies for rare diseases. Its lead program is currently being evaluated to treat fetal and neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia in a Phase 1/2 trial.</p><p><blockquote>罕见病生物技术<b>拉利比奥</b>(RLYB)计划以4.65亿美元的市值筹集8100万美元。这一临床阶段的生物技术正在开发罕见疾病的抗体疗法。其主导项目目前正在1/2期试验中评估治疗胎儿和新生儿同种免疫性血小板减少症。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ocean Biomedical</b>(OCEA) plans to raise $50 million at a $506 million market cap. The company is currently pursuing preclinical programs in oncology, fibrosis, infectious disease, and inflammation that have been licensed directly or indirectly from Brown University, Stanford University, and Rhode Island Hospital.</p><p><blockquote><b>海洋生物医学</b>(OCEA)计划以5.06亿美元的市值筹集5000万美元。该公司目前正在开展肿瘤学、纤维化、传染病和炎症方面的临床前项目，这些项目已直接或间接获得布朗大学、斯坦福大学和罗德岛医院的许可。</blockquote></p><p> After postponing in November 2020,<b>IN8bio</b>(INAB) plans to raise $44 million at a $215 million market cap. This Phase 1 biotech is developing allogeneic gamma-delta T cell therapies to treat solid tumors. Although gamma-delta T cells could potentially treat solid tumors, the company is very early stage and has dosed a limited number of patients.</p><p><blockquote>2020年11月延期后，<b>IN8bio</b>(INAB)计划以2.15亿美元的市值筹集4400万美元。这家1期生物技术公司正在开发同种异体γ-δ T细胞疗法来治疗实体瘤。尽管γ-δ T细胞有可能治疗实体瘤，但该公司还处于非常早期的阶段，并且仅为有限数量的患者提供了剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Female cancer biotech&nbsp;<b>Context Therapeutics</b>(CNTX) plans to raise $20 million at a $93 million market cap. Context is developing treatments for female cancers, such as breast, ovarian, and endometrial cancer. The company’s lead candidate is currently in Phase 2 trials for ovarian and endometrial cancer, with preliminary results expected in the 2H21 and the 1H22.</p><p><blockquote>女性癌症生物技术<b>情境疗法</b>(CNTX)计划以9300万美元的市值筹集2000万美元。背景是开发女性癌症的治疗方法，如乳腺癌、卵巢癌和子宫内膜癌。该公司的主要候选药物目前正处于卵巢癌和子宫内膜癌的2期试验中，预计将于21年下半年和22年上半年获得初步结果。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b38a8af5f92621b2633830553616b5d\" tg-width=\"1271\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5faec597a337345b21c846808295821d\" tg-width=\"1272\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021cc62ff4eaabd0b6a7dee91fc0d63e\" tg-width=\"1270\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 7/22/2021, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 1.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 16.3%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 3.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 8.1%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include EQT Partners and Smoore International.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年7月22日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今下跌1.0%，而标普500上涨16.3%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌3.0%，而ACWX指数上涨8.1%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括EQT Partners和思摩尔国际。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: 17 IPOs are coming<blockquote>未来一周美国IPO：17家IPO即将上市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: 17 IPOs are coming<blockquote>未来一周美国IPO：17家IPO即将上市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 09:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After another week of record activity, the IPO market is expected to remain hot with 17 IPOs scheduled for the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在又一周创纪录的活动之后，IPO市场预计将保持火热，未来一周将有17起IPO。</blockquote></p><p> Long-awaited retail brokerage&nbsp;<b>Robinhood Markets</b>(HOOD) plans to raise $2.2 billion at a $36.8 billion market cap. The company offers a no-commission retail brokerage platform with over 18 million MAUs. Despite triple-digit revenue growth in the 1Q21, the platform is dependent on trading volumes, and the recent retail trading boom may be unsustainable.</p><p><blockquote>期待已久的零售经纪业务<b>罗宾汉市场</b>(HOOD)计划以368亿美元的市值筹集22亿美元。该公司提供无佣金零售经纪平台，月活跃用户数超过1800万。尽管2021年第一季度的收入实现了三位数的增长，但该平台依赖于交易量，最近的零售交易热潮可能难以为继。</blockquote></p><p> Vehicle battery maker&nbsp;<b>Clarios International</b>(BTRY) plans to raise $1.7 billion at a $9.7 billion market cap. The company manufactures low-voltage vehicles batteries globally, stating that it has the number one market position in the Americas and EMEA. Profitable on an EBIT basis, Clarios saw revenue growth accelerate in the 1H FY21 after turning negative in the FY20 due to COVID.</p><p><blockquote>汽车电池制造商<b>Clarios International</b>(BTRY)计划以97亿美元的市值筹集17亿美元。该公司在全球范围内生产低压汽车电池，并表示其在美洲和欧洲、中东和非洲地区拥有第一的市场地位。在息税前利润的基础上，Clarios的收入增长在2020财年因新冠疫情而转为负值后，在2021财年上半年加速。</blockquote></p><p> Altice’s ad-tech platform&nbsp;<b>Teads</b>(TEAD) plans to raise $751 million at a $4.6 billion market cap. Teads operates a cloud-based programmatic digital advertising platform for advertisers and publishers. Profitable with solid growth, Teads provides monetization services to about 3,100 publishers.</p><p><blockquote>Altice的广告技术平台<b>Teads</b>(TEAD)计划以46亿美元的市值筹集7.51亿美元。Teads为广告商和出版商运营一个基于云的程序化数字广告平台。Teads盈利稳健增长，为约3,100家出版商提供货币化服务。</blockquote></p><p> Education software provider&nbsp;<b>PowerSchool Holdings</b>(PWSC) plans to raise $750 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. The company provides an education platform for teachers to manage classroom activities such as collecting work and grading assignments. Serving over 12,000 customers in over 90 countries globally, PowerSchool turned profitable on a net income basis in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>教育软件提供商<b>动力学校控股</b>(PWSC)计划以37亿美元的市值筹集7.5亿美元。该公司为教师提供了一个教育平台，用于管理课堂活动，如收集作业和评分作业。PowerSchool为全球90多个国家的12,000多名客户提供服务，在2021年第一季度实现了净利润盈利。</blockquote></p><p> After withdrawing its IPO attempt in 2018,<b>Dole</b>(DOLE) plans to raise $559 million at a $2.0 billion market cap. This leading fruit and vegetable company offers over 300 products sourced from over 30 countries to over 80 countries globally. Slow growing and profitable, Dole's offering is being made in connection with its merger with Total Produce.</p><p><blockquote>在2018年撤回IPO尝试后，<b>多尔</b>（都乐）计划以20亿美元的市值筹集5.59亿美元。这家领先的水果和蔬菜公司向全球80多个国家提供来自30多个国家的300多种产品。都乐增长缓慢且盈利，其产品是与Total Product合并时推出的。</blockquote></p><p> Language learning platform&nbsp;<b>Duolingo</b>(DUOL) plans to raise $460 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. Duolingo provides an online platform for over 300 million users to learn over 30 new languages. Benefiting from a COVID-related boost in demand, Duolingo posted triple-digit growth in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>语言学习平台<b>多邻国</b>(DUOL)计划以41亿美元的市值筹集4.6亿美元。多邻国为超过3亿用户提供了一个学习30多种新语言的在线平台。受益于与新冠疫情相关的需求增长，多邻国在2020年实现了三位数的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Traeger</b>(COOK) plans to raise $400 million at a $2.2 billion market cap. This company makes premium backyard wood pellet grills with a tech feature, allowing owners to program, monitor, and control their grill through the Traeger app. Traeger is a category leader of the wood pellet grill, growing revenue at a 28% CAGR from 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote><b>特雷格</b>（库克）计划以22亿美元的市值筹集4亿美元。这家公司生产具有技术功能的优质后院木质颗粒烤架，允许业主通过Traeger应用程序对他们的烤架进行编程、监控和控制。Traeger是木质颗粒烤架的类别领导者，从2017年到2020年，收入以28%的CAGR增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israeli anti-fraud firm&nbsp;<b>Riskified</b>(RSKD) plans to raise $333 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. This company provides e-commerce fraud protection for enterprises. Growing but unprofitable, Riskified saw its free cash flow swing positive in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>以色列反欺诈公司<b>风险化</b>(RSKD)计划以31亿美元的市值筹集3.33亿美元。这家公司为企业提供电子商务欺诈保护。Riskified不断增长但尚未盈利，其自由现金流在2021年第一季度上转为正值。</blockquote></p><p> Financial software provider&nbsp;<b>MeridianLink</b>(MLNK) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. MeridianLink offers a cloud-based digital lending and account opening platform for mid-market community banks and credit unions. Although business is cyclical, the company saw double-digit organic growth in the FY20 due to strong mortgage activity.</p><p><blockquote>财务软件提供商<b>子午线链接</b>(MLNK)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集3亿美元。MeridianLink为中端市场社区银行和信用合作社提供基于云的数字借贷和开户平台。尽管业务具有周期性，但由于强劲的抵押贷款活动，该公司在2020财年实现了两位数的有机增长。</blockquote></p><p> Smart home integration system&nbsp;<b>Snap One Holdings</b>(SNPO) plans to raise $270 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. This company provides smart home technology products to over 16,000 professional integrators. Snap One has demonstrated solid growth and was profitable on an EBIT basis in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>智能家居集成系统<b>Snap一号控股</b>(SNPO)计划以15亿美元的市值筹集2.7亿美元。该公司为超过16,000家专业集成商提供智能家居技术产品。Snap一号表现出稳健的增长，并在2021年第一季度按息税前利润计算实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Specialty funding solutions provider&nbsp;<b>Preston Hollow Community Capital</b>(PHCC) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. This company is a market leader in providing specialized impact financing solutions for projects of significant social and economic importance to local communities in the US. It serves a variety of areas, including infrastructure, education, healthcare, and housing.</p><p><blockquote>专业融资解决方案提供商<b>普雷斯顿霍洛社区资本</b>(PHCC)计划以23亿美元的市值筹集2亿美元。该公司是为对美国当地社区具有重大社会和经济重要性的项目提供专业影响力融资解决方案的市场领导者。它服务于各种领域，包括基础设施、教育、医疗保健和住房。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccine biotech&nbsp;<b>Icosavax</b>(ICVX) plans to raise $150 million at a $590 million market cap. This clinical stage biotech is initially focused on developing vaccines against infectious respiratory diseases using its virus-like particle platform technology. Its most advanced candidate is currently in a Phase 1/2 trial for SARS-CoV-2.</p><p><blockquote>疫苗生物技术<b>Icosavax</b>(ICVX)计划以5.9亿美元的市值筹集1.5亿美元。这一临床阶段的生物技术最初专注于利用其病毒样颗粒平台技术开发针对传染性呼吸道疾病的疫苗。其最先进的候选药物目前正处于新型冠状病毒病的1/2期试验中。</blockquote></p><p> Cancer biotech&nbsp;<b>Candel Therapeutics</b>(CADL) plans to raise $85 million at a $398 million market cap. Candel's most advanced candidate is currently in a Phase 3 trial in combination with prodrug valacyclovir for newly diagnosed localized prostate cancer with an intermediate or high-risk for progression. The company expects to complete enrollment in the 3Q21 with a final data readout in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>癌症生物技术<b>坎德尔治疗公司</b>(CADL)计划以3.98亿美元的市值筹集8500万美元。Candel最先进的候选药物目前正在与前药伐昔洛韦联合治疗新诊断的中度或高风险进展的局限性前列腺癌的3期试验中。该公司预计将在2024年完成2021年第三季度的注册并公布最终数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Rare disease biotech&nbsp;<b>Rallybio</b>(RLYB) plans to raise $81 million at a $465 million market cap. This clinical stage biotech is developing antibody therapies for rare diseases. Its lead program is currently being evaluated to treat fetal and neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia in a Phase 1/2 trial.</p><p><blockquote>罕见病生物技术<b>拉利比奥</b>(RLYB)计划以4.65亿美元的市值筹集8100万美元。这一临床阶段的生物技术正在开发罕见疾病的抗体疗法。其主导项目目前正在1/2期试验中评估治疗胎儿和新生儿同种免疫性血小板减少症。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ocean Biomedical</b>(OCEA) plans to raise $50 million at a $506 million market cap. The company is currently pursuing preclinical programs in oncology, fibrosis, infectious disease, and inflammation that have been licensed directly or indirectly from Brown University, Stanford University, and Rhode Island Hospital.</p><p><blockquote><b>海洋生物医学</b>(OCEA)计划以5.06亿美元的市值筹集5000万美元。该公司目前正在开展肿瘤学、纤维化、传染病和炎症方面的临床前项目，这些项目已直接或间接获得布朗大学、斯坦福大学和罗德岛医院的许可。</blockquote></p><p> After postponing in November 2020,<b>IN8bio</b>(INAB) plans to raise $44 million at a $215 million market cap. This Phase 1 biotech is developing allogeneic gamma-delta T cell therapies to treat solid tumors. Although gamma-delta T cells could potentially treat solid tumors, the company is very early stage and has dosed a limited number of patients.</p><p><blockquote>2020年11月延期后，<b>IN8bio</b>(INAB)计划以2.15亿美元的市值筹集4400万美元。这家1期生物技术公司正在开发同种异体γ-δ T细胞疗法来治疗实体瘤。尽管γ-δ T细胞有可能治疗实体瘤，但该公司还处于非常早期的阶段，并且仅为有限数量的患者提供了剂量。</blockquote></p><p> Female cancer biotech&nbsp;<b>Context Therapeutics</b>(CNTX) plans to raise $20 million at a $93 million market cap. Context is developing treatments for female cancers, such as breast, ovarian, and endometrial cancer. The company’s lead candidate is currently in Phase 2 trials for ovarian and endometrial cancer, with preliminary results expected in the 2H21 and the 1H22.</p><p><blockquote>女性癌症生物技术<b>情境疗法</b>(CNTX)计划以9300万美元的市值筹集2000万美元。背景是开发女性癌症的治疗方法，如乳腺癌、卵巢癌和子宫内膜癌。该公司的主要候选药物目前正处于卵巢癌和子宫内膜癌的2期试验中，预计将于21年下半年和22年上半年获得初步结果。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b38a8af5f92621b2633830553616b5d\" tg-width=\"1271\" tg-height=\"702\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5faec597a337345b21c846808295821d\" tg-width=\"1272\" tg-height=\"676\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/021cc62ff4eaabd0b6a7dee91fc0d63e\" tg-width=\"1270\" tg-height=\"483\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 7/22/2021, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 1.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 16.3%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 3.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 8.1%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include EQT Partners and Smoore International.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年7月22日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今下跌1.0%，而标普500上涨16.3%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌3.0%，而ACWX指数上涨8.1%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括EQT Partners和思摩尔国际。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/84600/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Robinhood%E2%80%99s-billion-dollar-deal-headlines-a-17-IPO-week\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNPO":"Snap One Holdings Corp.","RLYB":"Rallybio Corp.","FEOVF":"Oceanic Iron Ore Corp.","ICVX":"Icosavax, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PWSC":"PowerSchool Holdings, Inc.","CNTX":"Context Therapeutics Inc.","TEAD":"Teads Holding","RSKD":"Riskified Ltd.","DUOL":"多邻国","CADLF":"CADELER AS","HOOD":"Robinhood","COOK":"Traeger Inc. (TGPX Holdings I LLC)",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","MLNK":"MeridianLink, Inc. (ex-Project Angel Parent, LLC)","INAB":"IN8bio, Inc.","DOLE":"都乐食品"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/84600/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Robinhood%E2%80%99s-billion-dollar-deal-headlines-a-17-IPO-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118041582","content_text":"After another week of record activity, the IPO market is expected to remain hot with 17 IPOs scheduled for the week ahead.\nLong-awaited retail brokerage Robinhood Markets(HOOD) plans to raise $2.2 billion at a $36.8 billion market cap. The company offers a no-commission retail brokerage platform with over 18 million MAUs. Despite triple-digit revenue growth in the 1Q21, the platform is dependent on trading volumes, and the recent retail trading boom may be unsustainable.\nVehicle battery maker Clarios International(BTRY) plans to raise $1.7 billion at a $9.7 billion market cap. The company manufactures low-voltage vehicles batteries globally, stating that it has the number one market position in the Americas and EMEA. Profitable on an EBIT basis, Clarios saw revenue growth accelerate in the 1H FY21 after turning negative in the FY20 due to COVID.\nAltice’s ad-tech platform Teads(TEAD) plans to raise $751 million at a $4.6 billion market cap. Teads operates a cloud-based programmatic digital advertising platform for advertisers and publishers. Profitable with solid growth, Teads provides monetization services to about 3,100 publishers.\nEducation software provider PowerSchool Holdings(PWSC) plans to raise $750 million at a $3.7 billion market cap. The company provides an education platform for teachers to manage classroom activities such as collecting work and grading assignments. Serving over 12,000 customers in over 90 countries globally, PowerSchool turned profitable on a net income basis in the 1Q21.\nAfter withdrawing its IPO attempt in 2018,Dole(DOLE) plans to raise $559 million at a $2.0 billion market cap. This leading fruit and vegetable company offers over 300 products sourced from over 30 countries to over 80 countries globally. Slow growing and profitable, Dole's offering is being made in connection with its merger with Total Produce.\nLanguage learning platform Duolingo(DUOL) plans to raise $460 million at a $4.1 billion market cap. Duolingo provides an online platform for over 300 million users to learn over 30 new languages. Benefiting from a COVID-related boost in demand, Duolingo posted triple-digit growth in 2020.\nTraeger(COOK) plans to raise $400 million at a $2.2 billion market cap. This company makes premium backyard wood pellet grills with a tech feature, allowing owners to program, monitor, and control their grill through the Traeger app. Traeger is a category leader of the wood pellet grill, growing revenue at a 28% CAGR from 2017 to 2020.\nIsraeli anti-fraud firm Riskified(RSKD) plans to raise $333 million at a $3.1 billion market cap. This company provides e-commerce fraud protection for enterprises. Growing but unprofitable, Riskified saw its free cash flow swing positive in the 1Q21.\nFinancial software provider MeridianLink(MLNK) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. MeridianLink offers a cloud-based digital lending and account opening platform for mid-market community banks and credit unions. Although business is cyclical, the company saw double-digit organic growth in the FY20 due to strong mortgage activity.\nSmart home integration system Snap One Holdings(SNPO) plans to raise $270 million at a $1.5 billion market cap. This company provides smart home technology products to over 16,000 professional integrators. Snap One has demonstrated solid growth and was profitable on an EBIT basis in the 1Q21.\nSpecialty funding solutions provider Preston Hollow Community Capital(PHCC) plans to raise $200 million at a $2.3 billion market cap. This company is a market leader in providing specialized impact financing solutions for projects of significant social and economic importance to local communities in the US. It serves a variety of areas, including infrastructure, education, healthcare, and housing.\nVaccine biotech Icosavax(ICVX) plans to raise $150 million at a $590 million market cap. This clinical stage biotech is initially focused on developing vaccines against infectious respiratory diseases using its virus-like particle platform technology. Its most advanced candidate is currently in a Phase 1/2 trial for SARS-CoV-2.\nCancer biotech Candel Therapeutics(CADL) plans to raise $85 million at a $398 million market cap. Candel's most advanced candidate is currently in a Phase 3 trial in combination with prodrug valacyclovir for newly diagnosed localized prostate cancer with an intermediate or high-risk for progression. The company expects to complete enrollment in the 3Q21 with a final data readout in 2024.\nRare disease biotech Rallybio(RLYB) plans to raise $81 million at a $465 million market cap. This clinical stage biotech is developing antibody therapies for rare diseases. Its lead program is currently being evaluated to treat fetal and neonatal alloimmune thrombocytopenia in a Phase 1/2 trial.\nOcean Biomedical(OCEA) plans to raise $50 million at a $506 million market cap. The company is currently pursuing preclinical programs in oncology, fibrosis, infectious disease, and inflammation that have been licensed directly or indirectly from Brown University, Stanford University, and Rhode Island Hospital.\nAfter postponing in November 2020,IN8bio(INAB) plans to raise $44 million at a $215 million market cap. This Phase 1 biotech is developing allogeneic gamma-delta T cell therapies to treat solid tumors. Although gamma-delta T cells could potentially treat solid tumors, the company is very early stage and has dosed a limited number of patients.\nFemale cancer biotech Context Therapeutics(CNTX) plans to raise $20 million at a $93 million market cap. Context is developing treatments for female cancers, such as breast, ovarian, and endometrial cancer. The company’s lead candidate is currently in Phase 2 trials for ovarian and endometrial cancer, with preliminary results expected in the 2H21 and the 1H22.\n\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 7/22/2021, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 1.0% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 16.3%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 3.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 8.1%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include EQT Partners and Smoore International.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RSKD":0.9,"DUOL":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DOLE":0.9,"PWSC":0.9,"RLYB":0.9,"MLNK":0.9,"FEOVF":0.9,"PHCC":0.9,"COOK":0.9,"CNTX":0.9,"CADLF":0.9,"BTRY":0.9,"TEAD":0.9,"HOOD":0.9,"SNPO":0.9,"INAB":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ICVX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145395477,"gmtCreate":1626188877299,"gmtModify":1633929210306,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145395477","repostId":"2151561465","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142242689,"gmtCreate":1626156599441,"gmtModify":1633929548875,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Looking forward earnings result","listText":"Looking forward earnings result","text":"Looking forward earnings result","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142242689","repostId":"1119839711","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119839711","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626126339,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119839711?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-13 05:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow narrowly misses first close at 35,000 but all 3 stock indexes log back-to-back record finishes ahead of bank earnings<blockquote>道琼斯指数首次收于35,000点，但所有3个股指均在银行财报公布前连续创下历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119839711","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Dow ends just shy of 35,000 milestone.\n\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 index and Nasdaq C","content":"<p>  <b>Dow ends just shy of 35,000 milestone.</b>  The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&amp;P 500 index and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> Composite on Monday advanced to back-to-back record finishes, starting the week the way the ended last week.</p><p><blockquote><b>道琼斯指数收盘略低于35,000点的里程碑。</b>道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>周一综合指数连续创下纪录，以上周结束的方式开始了本周。</blockquote></p><p> The record finish comes as investors await semiannual testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> beginning Wednesday and a batch of economic reports throughout the week, the unofficial start of corporate quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>创纪录的收官之际，投资者正在等待美联储主席杰罗姆的半年度证词<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>从周三开始，一批经济报告贯穿整个星期，企业季度业绩的非正式开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How did stock benchmarks end?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票基准是如何结束的？</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.36%rose 126.02 points, or 0.4%, to end at a record 34,996.18.</li>  <li>S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,+0.35%added 15.08 points, or 0.4%, closing at a record 4,384.63, after touching an intraday high at 4,386.68.</li>  <li>Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,+0.21%advanced 31.32 points, or 0.2%, finishing at a record 14,733.24, after establishing an intraday all-time high at 14,761.08.</li> </ul> On Friday, the Dow and S&amp;P 500 finished the session at record highs, booking weekly gains of about 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite finished the week at an all-time high with a 0.4% weekly gain.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨126.02点，涨幅0.4%，收于创纪录的34,996.18点。</li><li>标普500指数SPX,+0.35%上涨15.08点，涨幅0.4%，收于创纪录的4,384.63点，此前触及盘中高点4,386.68点。</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数COMP,+0.21%上涨31.32点，即0.2%，收于创纪录的14,733.24点，此前盘中创下历史新高14,761.08点。</li></ul>周五，道琼斯指数和标普500指数收于历史新高，周涨幅分别约为0.2%和0.4%。纳斯达克综合指数本周收盘创下历史新高，周涨幅为0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What drove the market?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是什么推动了市场？</b></blockquote></p><p> Major stock indexes rose to back-to-back closing records on Monday. The advance came ahead of a number of key events that could serve as catalysts later in the week, including the unofficial start of earnings season, which<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a> &amp; Co</b>.JPM,+1.43%will kick off Tuesday, Powell’s testimony on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a>, and fresh readings on inflation.</p><p><blockquote>周一，主要股指连续上涨至收盘纪录。此次上涨发生在本周晚些时候可能成为催化剂的一些关键事件之前，包括财报季的非正式开始，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>&amp;Co</b>鲍威尔将于周二在国会大厦作证，摩根大通+1.43%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>，以及有关通货膨胀的最新读数。</blockquote></p><p> “People are thinking earnings are going to be strong and that may propel the market higher,” said John Carey, director of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EQR\">Equity</a> Income at Amundi U.S., adding that, for now, earnings have overshadowed uncertainty in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> over planned infrastructure spending and potentially higher corporate taxes.</p><p><blockquote>“人们认为盈利将会强劲，这可能会推动市场走高，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EQR\">公平</a>Amundi U.S.的收入，并补充说，目前，盈利已经掩盖了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>超过计划的基础设施支出和可能更高的公司税。</blockquote></p><p> “Most people seem to be focused on the strength of the economy and the possibility of better earnings to support stock prices, which are definitely at high levels,” Carey told MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>凯里对MarketWatch表示：“大多数人似乎都关注经济实力以及更好的盈利来支撑股价的可能性，而股价肯定处于高位。”</blockquote></p><p> Equity markets experienced a bout of turbulence last week before ending with a flourish, prompted partly by a drop in Treasury yields. Lower-bound rates for government debt had raised questions about the outlook for the U.S. economy in the recovery from the pandemic. The spread of the delta variant of COVID-19 has emerged as a concern, but so has the lofty valuations assigned to some segments of the market.</p><p><blockquote>股市上周经历了一轮动荡，随后以繁荣告终，部分原因是美国国债收益率下降。政府债务利率的下调引发了人们对美国经济从疫情复苏的前景的质疑。COVID-19德尔塔变异毒株的蔓延已成为一个令人担忧的问题，但某些细分市场的高估值也是一个令人担忧的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Questions about the Fed’s monetary policy in the face of growing evidence of percolating inflation also have been blamed for some of the rocky trading.</p><p><blockquote>面对越来越多的通胀渗透证据，人们对美联储货币政策的质疑也被指责为部分交易不稳定的原因。</blockquote></p><p> Yields for the 10-yearTMUBMUSD10Y,1.365%edged up less than a basis point to 1.362% on Monday, while the 30-year Treasury yieldsTMUBMUSD30Y,2.000%advanced by 1.2 basis points to 1.993%, near lows last seen in February.</p><p><blockquote>周一，10年期国债收益率MUBMUSD10Y, 1.365%小幅上涨不到一个基点至1.362%，而30年期国债收益率MUBMUSD30Y, 2.000%上涨1.2个基点至1.993%，接近2月份的低点。</blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve Bank ofNew York President John <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a> told reportersMonday that conditions for scaling back its $120 billion a month bond-buying stimulus program have yet to be met.</p><p><blockquote>纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">威廉姆斯</a>周一对记者表示，缩减每月1200亿美元债券购买刺激计划的条件尚未满足。</blockquote></p><p> Although inflation and peak growth concerns continue to percolate andworry U.S. households, some strategists said those concerns may be “over-hyped” for markets.</p><p><blockquote>尽管通胀和增长峰值的担忧继续渗透并令美国家庭担忧，但一些策略师表示，这些担忧对市场来说可能被“过度炒作”。</blockquote></p><p> “Both the previous inflation concerns and the current peak growth concerns are likely over-extrapolated reflections of near-term trends that will not persist,” Glenmede’s team led by Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds, wrote in a Monday note.</p><p><blockquote>由杰森·普莱德和迈克尔·雷诺兹领导的格伦梅德团队在周一的一份报告中写道：“之前的通胀担忧和当前的增长峰值担忧都可能是对近期趋势的过度推断，不会持续下去。”</blockquote></p><p> “Markets may remain volatile as they attempt to adjust to the rapidly&nbsp;evolving information flow during the ongoing recovery from the pandemic,” but those factors “should not be disruptive of markets longer term.”</p><p><blockquote>“在从大流行中持续复苏的过程中，市场试图适应快速变化的信息流，可能会保持波动”，但这些因素“不应对市场造成长期破坏”。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> also have been keeping an eye on delta-driven COVID infections. The U.S. leads the world with a total of 33.85 million COVID cases and in deaths with 607,156. Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Monday thatboosters weren’t needed for now, but duringa Sunday CNN inview said it was “horrifying”to see conservatives cheer for low vaccination rates, blaming “ideological rigidity” for hobbling the fight against the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>也一直在关注delta驱动的COVID感染。美国以3385万例COVID病例和607156例死亡位居世界第一。安东尼·福奇博士周一表示，目前不需要加强剂，但周日CNN inview表示，看到保守派为低疫苗接种率欢呼是“令人震惊的”，并指责“意识形态僵化”阻碍了抗击疫情的斗争。</blockquote></p><p> “We have long warned that vaccinations would be unlikely to trigger a smooth transition to normalcy,” Ben May, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXM\">Oxford</a> Economics’ director of global macro research wrote Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“我们长期以来一直警告说，疫苗接种不太可能引发向正常状态的平稳过渡，”本·梅说，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXM\">牛津大学</a>经济学全球宏观研究总监周一写道。</blockquote></p><p> No key data were on deck Monday ahead of a busy week in economic reports, starting with a reading of consumer prices on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>在经济报告繁忙的一周之前，周一没有关键数据公布，首先是周二的消费者价格数据。</blockquote></p><p> Separately, investors also were focused on discussions among finance ministers from the G-20, who are trying to assess the potential implications of a proposal for a global minimum tax.</p><p><blockquote>另外，投资者还关注20国集团财长之间的讨论，他们正试图评估全球最低税提案的潜在影响。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We need sustainable sources of revenue that do not rely on further taxing workers’ wages and exacerbating the economic disparities that we are all committed to reducing,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a speech to European Union countries about revamping the corporate tax code internationally.</p><p><blockquote>“我们需要可持续的收入来源，而不是依赖于进一步对工人工资征税和加剧我们都致力于缩小的经济差距，”美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦在向欧盟国家发表的关于修改国际企业税法的讲话中表示。</blockquote></p><p> “We need to put an end to corporations shifting capital income to low tax jurisdictions, and to accounting gimmicks that allow them to avoid paying their fair share,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>她说：“我们需要制止企业将资本收入转移到低税收管辖区，以及让他们逃避支付公平份额的会计噱头。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Which companies were in focus?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>哪些公司成为焦点？</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a> Inc</b>.AVGO,+1.16%shares rose 1.2% Monday afterThe Wall Street Journal reportedthe chip and software company was in talks to buy SAS Institute Inc. in a deal that could value the smashup at $15 billion to $20 billion.</li>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc</b>.AAPL,-0.42%&nbsp;shares fell 0.4% a day after a Delaware federal judgedismissed a Blix Inc. suit,saying it failed to demonstrate how Apple harmed competition in the mobile operating system market.</li>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LB\">L Brands Inc</a></b>.LB,+4.16%&nbsp;said it’s separating into two publiclytraded businesses next month, with theVictoria’s Secret &amp; Co.‘s underwear unit as “VSCO,” while the Bath &amp; BodyWorks Inc. arm under the “BBWI” ticker, starting Aug. 3.</li>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>&nbsp;Inc</b>.GME,-1.04%shares shed 1% Monday after Ascendiant Capital Markets lifted its 12-month price target to $25 from $10, but still nowhere near the company’s $189.25 closing price Monday.</li>  <li>Weber, the maker of outdoor grills,has filed to go public, nearly 50 years after it’s iconic dome-like grill was made. Shares are set to&nbsp;trade on the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a> Stock Exchange under the ticker WEBR.</li>  <li>Shares of<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE.WS\">Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc</a>.</b>&nbsp;SPCEskid 17.3% Monday, it’s largest daily percent slump since March 16, 2020, a day after founder Richard Branson and five crewmates successfully flew into&nbsp;suborbital space on the company’s VSS <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNTY\">Unity</a>&nbsp;rocket-powered spaceplane.</li>  <li><b>Couchbase Inc</b>.&nbsp;BASE,&nbsp;a provider of a database for enterprise applications, set terms for its initial public offering on Monday, with plans to offer 7 million shares, priced at $20 to $23 each. The company has applied to list on Nasdaq, under the ticker ‘BASE.’</li>  <li>Shares of<b>Moderna Inc</b>.&nbsp;MRNArose 2.8% Monday after the company said it would supply 20 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine to Argentina.</li>  <li>Shares of<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWI\">SolarWinds Corp</a>.</b>&nbsp;SWI&nbsp;were 1.8% lower Monday, even after the information technology infrastructure management software company provided an upbeat second-quarter revenue outlook.</li> </ul> <b>How did other assets trade?</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>Inc</b>.AVGO,+1.16%据《华尔街日报》报道，这家芯片和软件公司正在就收购SAS Institute Inc.进行谈判，这笔交易的估值可能达到150亿至200亿美元，周一股价上涨1.2%。</li><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Inc</b>特拉华联邦法官驳回了Blix Inc.的诉讼，称该诉讼未能证明苹果如何损害了移动操作系统市场的竞争，该公司股价一天下跌0.4%。</li><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LB\">L品牌公司</a></b>LB表示，从8月3日开始，该公司将分拆为两家上市公司，维多利亚的秘密(Victoria's Secret&amp;Co.)的内衣部门将更名为“VSCO”，而Bath&amp;BodyWorks Inc.的子公司将更名为“BBWI”。</li><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>Inc</b>.GME,-1.04%周一，Ascendiant Capital Markets将其12个月目标价从10美元上调至25美元，但仍远未接近该公司周一189.25美元的收盘价。</li><li>户外烤架制造商韦伯(Weber)已申请上市，距其标志性的圆顶状烤架问世已近50年。股票将于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a>证券交易所，股票代码为WEBR。</li><li>本公司之股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE.WS\">维珍银河控股公司</a>.</b>SPCEskid周一下跌17.3%，这是自2020年3月16日以来的最大单日跌幅，此前一天创始人理查德·布兰森(Richard Branson)和五名机组人员乘坐该公司的VSS成功飞入亚轨道空间<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNTY\">团结</a>火箭动力太空飞机。</li><li><b>沙发基地公司</b>企业应用数据库提供商.BASE周一设定了首次公开募股的条款，计划发行700万股，每股定价20至23美元。该公司已申请在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为“BASE”。</li><li>本公司之股份<b>现代公司</b>.MRNA周一上涨2.8%，此前该公司表示将向阿根廷供应2000万剂COVID-19疫苗。</li><li>本公司之股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWI\">SolarWinds公司</a>.</b>尽管这家信息技术基础设施管理软件公司提供了乐观的第二季度收入前景，但SWI周一仍下跌1.8%。</li></ul><b>其他资产是如何交易的？</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The ICE U.S. Dollar Index&nbsp;DXY,&nbsp;a measure of the currency against six major rivals, was up 0.1%.</li>  <li>Oil futures closed lower Monday, with the U.S. benchmark&nbsp;CL00&nbsp;CL.1,-0.51%down 0.6% settling at $74.10 a barrel. Gold&nbsp;GC00&nbsp;settled 0.3% lower at $1,805.90 an ounce.</li>  <li>In European equities, the Stoxx Europe 600&nbsp;SXXP&nbsp;closed 0.7% higher, while London’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100</a>&nbsp;UKX&nbsp;finished up 0.05% on Monday.</li>  <li>In <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asia</a>, the Shanghai Composite&nbsp;SHCOMP&nbsp;gained 0.7%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index&nbsp;HSI&nbsp;rose 0.6% on the session and Japan’s Nikkei 225&nbsp;NIK&nbsp;rallied 2.3% on Monday.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>衡量美元兑六个主要竞争对手的ICE美元指数DXY上涨0.1%。</li><li>石油期货周一收低，美国基准Cl 00 Cl.1,-0.51%下跌0.6%，收于每桶74.10美元。黄金GC 00收跌0.3%，报每盎司1805.90美元。</li><li>欧洲股市方面，斯托克欧洲600指数收盘上涨0.7%，而伦敦股市收盘上涨0.7%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">富时100</a>UKX周一收盘上涨0.05%。</li><li>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">亚洲</a>周一，上证综指上涨0.7%，恒生指数恒生指数上涨0.6%，日经225指数上涨2.3%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow narrowly misses first close at 35,000 but all 3 stock indexes log back-to-back record finishes ahead of bank earnings<blockquote>道琼斯指数首次收于35,000点，但所有3个股指均在银行财报公布前连续创下历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow narrowly misses first close at 35,000 but all 3 stock indexes log back-to-back record finishes ahead of bank earnings<blockquote>道琼斯指数首次收于35,000点，但所有3个股指均在银行财报公布前连续创下历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-13 05:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Dow ends just shy of 35,000 milestone.</b>  The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&amp;P 500 index and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> Composite on Monday advanced to back-to-back record finishes, starting the week the way the ended last week.</p><p><blockquote><b>道琼斯指数收盘略低于35,000点的里程碑。</b>道琼斯工业平均指数、标普500指数和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>周一综合指数连续创下纪录，以上周结束的方式开始了本周。</blockquote></p><p> The record finish comes as investors await semiannual testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> beginning Wednesday and a batch of economic reports throughout the week, the unofficial start of corporate quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>创纪录的收官之际，投资者正在等待美联储主席杰罗姆的半年度证词<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>从周三开始，一批经济报告贯穿整个星期，企业季度业绩的非正式开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>How did stock benchmarks end?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股票基准是如何结束的？</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.36%rose 126.02 points, or 0.4%, to end at a record 34,996.18.</li>  <li>S&amp;P 500 indexSPX,+0.35%added 15.08 points, or 0.4%, closing at a record 4,384.63, after touching an intraday high at 4,386.68.</li>  <li>Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,+0.21%advanced 31.32 points, or 0.2%, finishing at a record 14,733.24, after establishing an intraday all-time high at 14,761.08.</li> </ul> On Friday, the Dow and S&amp;P 500 finished the session at record highs, booking weekly gains of about 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite finished the week at an all-time high with a 0.4% weekly gain.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨126.02点，涨幅0.4%，收于创纪录的34,996.18点。</li><li>标普500指数SPX,+0.35%上涨15.08点，涨幅0.4%，收于创纪录的4,384.63点，此前触及盘中高点4,386.68点。</li><li>纳斯达克综合指数COMP,+0.21%上涨31.32点，即0.2%，收于创纪录的14,733.24点，此前盘中创下历史新高14,761.08点。</li></ul>周五，道琼斯指数和标普500指数收于历史新高，周涨幅分别约为0.2%和0.4%。纳斯达克综合指数本周收盘创下历史新高，周涨幅为0.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What drove the market?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>是什么推动了市场？</b></blockquote></p><p> Major stock indexes rose to back-to-back closing records on Monday. The advance came ahead of a number of key events that could serve as catalysts later in the week, including the unofficial start of earnings season, which<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a> &amp; Co</b>.JPM,+1.43%will kick off Tuesday, Powell’s testimony on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a>, and fresh readings on inflation.</p><p><blockquote>周一，主要股指连续上涨至收盘纪录。此次上涨发生在本周晚些时候可能成为催化剂的一些关键事件之前，包括财报季的非正式开始，<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>&amp;Co</b>鲍威尔将于周二在国会大厦作证，摩根大通+1.43%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>，以及有关通货膨胀的最新读数。</blockquote></p><p> “People are thinking earnings are going to be strong and that may propel the market higher,” said John Carey, director of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EQR\">Equity</a> Income at Amundi U.S., adding that, for now, earnings have overshadowed uncertainty in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> over planned infrastructure spending and potentially higher corporate taxes.</p><p><blockquote>“人们认为盈利将会强劲，这可能会推动市场走高，”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EQR\">公平</a>Amundi U.S.的收入，并补充说，目前，盈利已经掩盖了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>超过计划的基础设施支出和可能更高的公司税。</blockquote></p><p> “Most people seem to be focused on the strength of the economy and the possibility of better earnings to support stock prices, which are definitely at high levels,” Carey told MarketWatch.</p><p><blockquote>凯里对MarketWatch表示：“大多数人似乎都关注经济实力以及更好的盈利来支撑股价的可能性，而股价肯定处于高位。”</blockquote></p><p> Equity markets experienced a bout of turbulence last week before ending with a flourish, prompted partly by a drop in Treasury yields. Lower-bound rates for government debt had raised questions about the outlook for the U.S. economy in the recovery from the pandemic. The spread of the delta variant of COVID-19 has emerged as a concern, but so has the lofty valuations assigned to some segments of the market.</p><p><blockquote>股市上周经历了一轮动荡，随后以繁荣告终，部分原因是美国国债收益率下降。政府债务利率的下调引发了人们对美国经济从疫情复苏的前景的质疑。COVID-19德尔塔变异毒株的蔓延已成为一个令人担忧的问题，但某些细分市场的高估值也是一个令人担忧的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Questions about the Fed’s monetary policy in the face of growing evidence of percolating inflation also have been blamed for some of the rocky trading.</p><p><blockquote>面对越来越多的通胀渗透证据，人们对美联储货币政策的质疑也被指责为部分交易不稳定的原因。</blockquote></p><p> Yields for the 10-yearTMUBMUSD10Y,1.365%edged up less than a basis point to 1.362% on Monday, while the 30-year Treasury yieldsTMUBMUSD30Y,2.000%advanced by 1.2 basis points to 1.993%, near lows last seen in February.</p><p><blockquote>周一，10年期国债收益率MUBMUSD10Y, 1.365%小幅上涨不到一个基点至1.362%，而30年期国债收益率MUBMUSD30Y, 2.000%上涨1.2个基点至1.993%，接近2月份的低点。</blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve Bank ofNew York President John <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">Williams</a> told reportersMonday that conditions for scaling back its $120 billion a month bond-buying stimulus program have yet to be met.</p><p><blockquote>纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMB\">威廉姆斯</a>周一对记者表示，缩减每月1200亿美元债券购买刺激计划的条件尚未满足。</blockquote></p><p> Although inflation and peak growth concerns continue to percolate andworry U.S. households, some strategists said those concerns may be “over-hyped” for markets.</p><p><blockquote>尽管通胀和增长峰值的担忧继续渗透并令美国家庭担忧，但一些策略师表示，这些担忧对市场来说可能被“过度炒作”。</blockquote></p><p> “Both the previous inflation concerns and the current peak growth concerns are likely over-extrapolated reflections of near-term trends that will not persist,” Glenmede’s team led by Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds, wrote in a Monday note.</p><p><blockquote>由杰森·普莱德和迈克尔·雷诺兹领导的格伦梅德团队在周一的一份报告中写道：“之前的通胀担忧和当前的增长峰值担忧都可能是对近期趋势的过度推断，不会持续下去。”</blockquote></p><p> “Markets may remain volatile as they attempt to adjust to the rapidly&nbsp;evolving information flow during the ongoing recovery from the pandemic,” but those factors “should not be disruptive of markets longer term.”</p><p><blockquote>“在从大流行中持续复苏的过程中，市场试图适应快速变化的信息流，可能会保持波动”，但这些因素“不应对市场造成长期破坏”。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> also have been keeping an eye on delta-driven COVID infections. The U.S. leads the world with a total of 33.85 million COVID cases and in deaths with 607,156. Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Monday thatboosters weren’t needed for now, but duringa Sunday CNN inview said it was “horrifying”to see conservatives cheer for low vaccination rates, blaming “ideological rigidity” for hobbling the fight against the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>也一直在关注delta驱动的COVID感染。美国以3385万例COVID病例和607156例死亡位居世界第一。安东尼·福奇博士周一表示，目前不需要加强剂，但周日CNN inview表示，看到保守派为低疫苗接种率欢呼是“令人震惊的”，并指责“意识形态僵化”阻碍了抗击疫情的斗争。</blockquote></p><p> “We have long warned that vaccinations would be unlikely to trigger a smooth transition to normalcy,” Ben May, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXM\">Oxford</a> Economics’ director of global macro research wrote Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“我们长期以来一直警告说，疫苗接种不太可能引发向正常状态的平稳过渡，”本·梅说，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXM\">牛津大学</a>经济学全球宏观研究总监周一写道。</blockquote></p><p> No key data were on deck Monday ahead of a busy week in economic reports, starting with a reading of consumer prices on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>在经济报告繁忙的一周之前，周一没有关键数据公布，首先是周二的消费者价格数据。</blockquote></p><p> Separately, investors also were focused on discussions among finance ministers from the G-20, who are trying to assess the potential implications of a proposal for a global minimum tax.</p><p><blockquote>另外，投资者还关注20国集团财长之间的讨论，他们正试图评估全球最低税提案的潜在影响。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “We need sustainable sources of revenue that do not rely on further taxing workers’ wages and exacerbating the economic disparities that we are all committed to reducing,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a speech to European Union countries about revamping the corporate tax code internationally.</p><p><blockquote>“我们需要可持续的收入来源，而不是依赖于进一步对工人工资征税和加剧我们都致力于缩小的经济差距，”美国财政部长珍妮特·耶伦在向欧盟国家发表的关于修改国际企业税法的讲话中表示。</blockquote></p><p> “We need to put an end to corporations shifting capital income to low tax jurisdictions, and to accounting gimmicks that allow them to avoid paying their fair share,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>她说：“我们需要制止企业将资本收入转移到低税收管辖区，以及让他们逃避支付公平份额的会计噱头。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Which companies were in focus?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>哪些公司成为焦点？</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a> Inc</b>.AVGO,+1.16%shares rose 1.2% Monday afterThe Wall Street Journal reportedthe chip and software company was in talks to buy SAS Institute Inc. in a deal that could value the smashup at $15 billion to $20 billion.</li>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">Apple</a> Inc</b>.AAPL,-0.42%&nbsp;shares fell 0.4% a day after a Delaware federal judgedismissed a Blix Inc. suit,saying it failed to demonstrate how Apple harmed competition in the mobile operating system market.</li>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LB\">L Brands Inc</a></b>.LB,+4.16%&nbsp;said it’s separating into two publiclytraded businesses next month, with theVictoria’s Secret &amp; Co.‘s underwear unit as “VSCO,” while the Bath &amp; BodyWorks Inc. arm under the “BBWI” ticker, starting Aug. 3.</li>  <li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">GameStop</a>&nbsp;Inc</b>.GME,-1.04%shares shed 1% Monday after Ascendiant Capital Markets lifted its 12-month price target to $25 from $10, but still nowhere near the company’s $189.25 closing price Monday.</li>  <li>Weber, the maker of outdoor grills,has filed to go public, nearly 50 years after it’s iconic dome-like grill was made. Shares are set to&nbsp;trade on the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">New York</a> Stock Exchange under the ticker WEBR.</li>  <li>Shares of<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE.WS\">Virgin Galactic Holdings Inc</a>.</b>&nbsp;SPCEskid 17.3% Monday, it’s largest daily percent slump since March 16, 2020, a day after founder Richard Branson and five crewmates successfully flew into&nbsp;suborbital space on the company’s VSS <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNTY\">Unity</a>&nbsp;rocket-powered spaceplane.</li>  <li><b>Couchbase Inc</b>.&nbsp;BASE,&nbsp;a provider of a database for enterprise applications, set terms for its initial public offering on Monday, with plans to offer 7 million shares, priced at $20 to $23 each. The company has applied to list on Nasdaq, under the ticker ‘BASE.’</li>  <li>Shares of<b>Moderna Inc</b>.&nbsp;MRNArose 2.8% Monday after the company said it would supply 20 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine to Argentina.</li>  <li>Shares of<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWI\">SolarWinds Corp</a>.</b>&nbsp;SWI&nbsp;were 1.8% lower Monday, even after the information technology infrastructure management software company provided an upbeat second-quarter revenue outlook.</li> </ul> <b>How did other assets trade?</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">Broadcom</a>Inc</b>.AVGO,+1.16%据《华尔街日报》报道，这家芯片和软件公司正在就收购SAS Institute Inc.进行谈判，这笔交易的估值可能达到150亿至200亿美元，周一股价上涨1.2%。</li><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>Inc</b>特拉华联邦法官驳回了Blix Inc.的诉讼，称该诉讼未能证明苹果如何损害了移动操作系统市场的竞争，该公司股价一天下跌0.4%。</li><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LB\">L品牌公司</a></b>LB表示，从8月3日开始，该公司将分拆为两家上市公司，维多利亚的秘密(Victoria's Secret&amp;Co.)的内衣部门将更名为“VSCO”，而Bath&amp;BodyWorks Inc.的子公司将更名为“BBWI”。</li><li><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">游戏驿站</a>Inc</b>.GME,-1.04%周一，Ascendiant Capital Markets将其12个月目标价从10美元上调至25美元，但仍远未接近该公司周一189.25美元的收盘价。</li><li>户外烤架制造商韦伯(Weber)已申请上市，距其标志性的圆顶状烤架问世已近50年。股票将于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NWY\">纽约</a>证券交易所，股票代码为WEBR。</li><li>本公司之股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE.WS\">维珍银河控股公司</a>.</b>SPCEskid周一下跌17.3%，这是自2020年3月16日以来的最大单日跌幅，此前一天创始人理查德·布兰森(Richard Branson)和五名机组人员乘坐该公司的VSS成功飞入亚轨道空间<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNTY\">团结</a>火箭动力太空飞机。</li><li><b>沙发基地公司</b>企业应用数据库提供商.BASE周一设定了首次公开募股的条款，计划发行700万股，每股定价20至23美元。该公司已申请在纳斯达克上市，股票代码为“BASE”。</li><li>本公司之股份<b>现代公司</b>.MRNA周一上涨2.8%，此前该公司表示将向阿根廷供应2000万剂COVID-19疫苗。</li><li>本公司之股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWI\">SolarWinds公司</a>.</b>尽管这家信息技术基础设施管理软件公司提供了乐观的第二季度收入前景，但SWI周一仍下跌1.8%。</li></ul><b>其他资产是如何交易的？</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The ICE U.S. Dollar Index&nbsp;DXY,&nbsp;a measure of the currency against six major rivals, was up 0.1%.</li>  <li>Oil futures closed lower Monday, with the U.S. benchmark&nbsp;CL00&nbsp;CL.1,-0.51%down 0.6% settling at $74.10 a barrel. Gold&nbsp;GC00&nbsp;settled 0.3% lower at $1,805.90 an ounce.</li>  <li>In European equities, the Stoxx Europe 600&nbsp;SXXP&nbsp;closed 0.7% higher, while London’s <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">FTSE 100</a>&nbsp;UKX&nbsp;finished up 0.05% on Monday.</li>  <li>In <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">Asia</a>, the Shanghai Composite&nbsp;SHCOMP&nbsp;gained 0.7%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index&nbsp;HSI&nbsp;rose 0.6% on the session and Japan’s Nikkei 225&nbsp;NIK&nbsp;rallied 2.3% on Monday.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>衡量美元兑六个主要竞争对手的ICE美元指数DXY上涨0.1%。</li><li>石油期货周一收低，美国基准Cl 00 Cl.1,-0.51%下跌0.6%，收于每桶74.10美元。黄金GC 00收跌0.3%，报每盎司1805.90美元。</li><li>欧洲股市方面，斯托克欧洲600指数收盘上涨0.7%，而伦敦股市收盘上涨0.7%<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.100.UK\">富时100</a>UKX周一收盘上涨0.05%。</li><li>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00662\">亚洲</a>周一，上证综指上涨0.7%，恒生指数恒生指数上涨0.6%，日经225指数上涨2.3%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-set-for-pullback-from-records-tech-stocks-seen-buoyant-as-investors-await-earnings-powell-and-fresh-inflation-data-11626089989?mod=hp_LATEST\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-set-for-pullback-from-records-tech-stocks-seen-buoyant-as-investors-await-earnings-powell-and-fresh-inflation-data-11626089989?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119839711","content_text":"Dow ends just shy of 35,000 milestone.\n\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 index and Nasdaq Composite on Monday advanced to back-to-back record finishes, starting the week the way the ended last week.\nThe record finish comes as investors await semiannual testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell beginning Wednesday and a batch of economic reports throughout the week, the unofficial start of corporate quarterly results.\nHow did stock benchmarks end?\n\nThe Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.36%rose 126.02 points, or 0.4%, to end at a record 34,996.18.\nS&P 500 indexSPX,+0.35%added 15.08 points, or 0.4%, closing at a record 4,384.63, after touching an intraday high at 4,386.68.\nNasdaq Composite IndexCOMP,+0.21%advanced 31.32 points, or 0.2%, finishing at a record 14,733.24, after establishing an intraday all-time high at 14,761.08.\n\nOn Friday, the Dow and S&P 500 finished the session at record highs, booking weekly gains of about 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively. The Nasdaq Composite finished the week at an all-time high with a 0.4% weekly gain.\nWhat drove the market?\nMajor stock indexes rose to back-to-back closing records on Monday. The advance came ahead of a number of key events that could serve as catalysts later in the week, including the unofficial start of earnings season, whichJPMorgan Chase & Co.JPM,+1.43%will kick off Tuesday, Powell’s testimony on Capitol Hill, and fresh readings on inflation.\n“People are thinking earnings are going to be strong and that may propel the market higher,” said John Carey, director of Equity Income at Amundi U.S., adding that, for now, earnings have overshadowed uncertainty in Washington over planned infrastructure spending and potentially higher corporate taxes.\n“Most people seem to be focused on the strength of the economy and the possibility of better earnings to support stock prices, which are definitely at high levels,” Carey told MarketWatch.\nEquity markets experienced a bout of turbulence last week before ending with a flourish, prompted partly by a drop in Treasury yields. Lower-bound rates for government debt had raised questions about the outlook for the U.S. economy in the recovery from the pandemic. The spread of the delta variant of COVID-19 has emerged as a concern, but so has the lofty valuations assigned to some segments of the market.\nQuestions about the Fed’s monetary policy in the face of growing evidence of percolating inflation also have been blamed for some of the rocky trading.\nYields for the 10-yearTMUBMUSD10Y,1.365%edged up less than a basis point to 1.362% on Monday, while the 30-year Treasury yieldsTMUBMUSD30Y,2.000%advanced by 1.2 basis points to 1.993%, near lows last seen in February.\nFederal Reserve Bank ofNew York President John Williams told reportersMonday that conditions for scaling back its $120 billion a month bond-buying stimulus program have yet to be met.\nAlthough inflation and peak growth concerns continue to percolate andworry U.S. households, some strategists said those concerns may be “over-hyped” for markets.\n“Both the previous inflation concerns and the current peak growth concerns are likely over-extrapolated reflections of near-term trends that will not persist,” Glenmede’s team led by Jason Pride and Michael Reynolds, wrote in a Monday note.\n“Markets may remain volatile as they attempt to adjust to the rapidly evolving information flow during the ongoing recovery from the pandemic,” but those factors “should not be disruptive of markets longer term.”\nInvestors also have been keeping an eye on delta-driven COVID infections. The U.S. leads the world with a total of 33.85 million COVID cases and in deaths with 607,156. Dr. Anthony Fauci said on Monday thatboosters weren’t needed for now, but duringa Sunday CNN inview said it was “horrifying”to see conservatives cheer for low vaccination rates, blaming “ideological rigidity” for hobbling the fight against the pandemic.\n“We have long warned that vaccinations would be unlikely to trigger a smooth transition to normalcy,” Ben May, Oxford Economics’ director of global macro research wrote Monday.\nNo key data were on deck Monday ahead of a busy week in economic reports, starting with a reading of consumer prices on Tuesday.\nSeparately, investors also were focused on discussions among finance ministers from the G-20, who are trying to assess the potential implications of a proposal for a global minimum tax.\n“We need sustainable sources of revenue that do not rely on further taxing workers’ wages and exacerbating the economic disparities that we are all committed to reducing,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a speech to European Union countries about revamping the corporate tax code internationally.\n“We need to put an end to corporations shifting capital income to low tax jurisdictions, and to accounting gimmicks that allow them to avoid paying their fair share,” she said.\nWhich companies were in focus?\n\nBroadcom Inc.AVGO,+1.16%shares rose 1.2% Monday afterThe Wall Street Journal reportedthe chip and software company was in talks to buy SAS Institute Inc. in a deal that could value the smashup at $15 billion to $20 billion.\nApple Inc.AAPL,-0.42% shares fell 0.4% a day after a Delaware federal judgedismissed a Blix Inc. suit,saying it failed to demonstrate how Apple harmed competition in the mobile operating system market.\nL Brands Inc.LB,+4.16% said it’s separating into two publiclytraded businesses next month, with theVictoria’s Secret & Co.‘s underwear unit as “VSCO,” while the Bath & BodyWorks Inc. arm under the “BBWI” ticker, starting Aug. 3.\nGameStop Inc.GME,-1.04%shares shed 1% Monday after Ascendiant Capital Markets lifted its 12-month price target to $25 from $10, but still nowhere near the company’s $189.25 closing price Monday.\nWeber, the maker of outdoor grills,has filed to go public, nearly 50 years after it’s iconic dome-like grill was made. Shares are set to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker WEBR.\nShares ofVirgin Galactic Holdings Inc. SPCEskid 17.3% Monday, it’s largest daily percent slump since March 16, 2020, a day after founder Richard Branson and five crewmates successfully flew into suborbital space on the company’s VSS Unity rocket-powered spaceplane.\nCouchbase Inc. BASE, a provider of a database for enterprise applications, set terms for its initial public offering on Monday, with plans to offer 7 million shares, priced at $20 to $23 each. The company has applied to list on Nasdaq, under the ticker ‘BASE.’\nShares ofModerna Inc. MRNArose 2.8% Monday after the company said it would supply 20 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine to Argentina.\nShares ofSolarWinds Corp. SWI were 1.8% lower Monday, even after the information technology infrastructure management software company provided an upbeat second-quarter revenue outlook.\n\nHow did other assets trade?\n\nThe ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, a measure of the currency against six major rivals, was up 0.1%.\nOil futures closed lower Monday, with the U.S. benchmark CL00 CL.1,-0.51%down 0.6% settling at $74.10 a barrel. Gold GC00 settled 0.3% lower at $1,805.90 an ounce.\nIn European equities, the Stoxx Europe 600 SXXP closed 0.7% higher, while London’s FTSE 100 UKX finished up 0.05% on Monday.\nIn Asia, the Shanghai Composite SHCOMP gained 0.7%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index HSI rose 0.6% on the session and Japan’s Nikkei 225 NIK rallied 2.3% on Monday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146199301,"gmtCreate":1626057136003,"gmtModify":1633930564225,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Everyone will say crash on the way when all time high","listText":"Everyone will say crash on the way when all time high","text":"Everyone will say crash on the way when all time high","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146199301","repostId":"1172063633","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":820305904,"gmtCreate":1633349666829,"gmtModify":1633351599098,"author":{"id":"4087387556186030","authorId":"4087387556186030","name":"peng321","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087387556186030","idStr":"4087387556186030"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"IMO&nbsp;Index or theme ETF (e g. ESG)&nbsp;is more stable rather than sector ETF ..... for long term. Commission &amp;&nbsp;Tax will eat into profit for short term&nbsp;as well.","listText":"IMO&nbsp;Index or theme ETF (e g. ESG)&nbsp;is more stable rather than sector ETF ..... for long term. Commission &amp;&nbsp;Tax will eat into profit for short term&nbsp;as well.","text":"IMO Index or theme ETF (e g. ESG) is more stable rather than sector ETF ..... for long term. Commission & Tax will eat into profit for short term as well.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820305904","repostId":"1145081858","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}