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2021-07-26

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2021-07-20

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2022-02-06

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2021-08-09

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$网易(09999)$</a>跌4.48%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴(09988)$</a>跌4%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度(09888)$</a>、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯(00700)$</a>跌近2%，地产股大跌居前，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01238\">$宝龙地产(01238)$</a>、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00960\">$龙湖集团(00960)$</a>领衔下跌，互联网医疗股、电力股、海运股、手机概念股、乳制品股普遍走低；另一方面，生物科技股强势，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688185\">$康希诺(688185)$</a>生物、","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 4月6日讯，港股大幅低开，恒生指数低开1.25%报22220.21点，国企指数跌1.7%，恒生科技指数跌2.77%。 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1、美货币政策进一步收紧： 美联储理事鸽派代表布雷纳德周二表示，美联储最早可能5月开始缩表，并将以更为迅速地步伐缩减资产负债表。她还表示，加息的步伐可能会比25个基点的增幅更大。 此言论一出，美联储全面转鹰，国债利率倒挂，股票市场立刻由涨转跌，其中科技股领跌，英伟达大跌5%。 缩表是指美联储缩减自身资产负债表规模，和加息一样，是一种收紧货币政策的手段。在这之前市场就知道要加息缩表一起上，只不过不知道具体执行方法，今晚的美联储会议纪要或披露缩表细节，也许能够一定程度上稳定市场情绪，很关键。 市场受到如此惊吓也可以理解，因为布雷纳德这次发言表述了抑制通胀的决心：https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20220405a.htm 受通胀影响最严重的不是富人，相反富人持有资产，是通胀的受益者，所以就可以理解为什么抑制通胀股价会跌，股票也是一种资产嘛。 那么持有资产最少的人就是通胀的受害者。而且通胀最严重的食品等必需品消费，穷人占比是富人的两倍，通胀越严重，穷人越惨。为了穷人考虑美联储也要尽快抑制通胀，这就是布雷纳德转鹰的原因。 美国不同收入阶层受通胀影响图 如果是为底层人民考虑那确实好理解，不过对于市场来说有点惨。这段时间无论是航运还是外贸又或者是就业，均显示消费下降趋势。没有消费刺激，通胀自然而然会下降，只不过这个速度布雷纳德还是嫌慢。 航运牛股转熊 那我们如何看待这一轮股市回调呢？ 就在今天CNBC疯狂money节目的主持人吉米克莱默表示让大家快跑，资产要回调了。他表示如果之前持有了一些投机标的，最好趁高位抛售，如果是价值股，那拿着也没什么问题。 我的看法差不多，如果你有近期sell&nbsp;p","listText":"假期发生了三件事：美货币政策进一步收紧，马斯克入股推特，中概股境外上市规定出台。按影响排序我们挨个谈谈看法。 1、美货币政策进一步收紧： 美联储理事鸽派代表布雷纳德周二表示，美联储最早可能5月开始缩表，并将以更为迅速地步伐缩减资产负债表。她还表示，加息的步伐可能会比25个基点的增幅更大。 此言论一出，美联储全面转鹰，国债利率倒挂，股票市场立刻由涨转跌，其中科技股领跌，英伟达大跌5%。 缩表是指美联储缩减自身资产负债表规模，和加息一样，是一种收紧货币政策的手段。在这之前市场就知道要加息缩表一起上，只不过不知道具体执行方法，今晚的美联储会议纪要或披露缩表细节，也许能够一定程度上稳定市场情绪，很关键。 市场受到如此惊吓也可以理解，因为布雷纳德这次发言表述了抑制通胀的决心：https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20220405a.htm 受通胀影响最严重的不是富人，相反富人持有资产，是通胀的受益者，所以就可以理解为什么抑制通胀股价会跌，股票也是一种资产嘛。 那么持有资产最少的人就是通胀的受害者。而且通胀最严重的食品等必需品消费，穷人占比是富人的两倍，通胀越严重，穷人越惨。为了穷人考虑美联储也要尽快抑制通胀，这就是布雷纳德转鹰的原因。 美国不同收入阶层受通胀影响图 如果是为底层人民考虑那确实好理解，不过对于市场来说有点惨。这段时间无论是航运还是外贸又或者是就业，均显示消费下降趋势。没有消费刺激，通胀自然而然会下降，只不过这个速度布雷纳德还是嫌慢。 航运牛股转熊 那我们如何看待这一轮股市回调呢？ 就在今天CNBC疯狂money节目的主持人吉米克莱默表示让大家快跑，资产要回调了。他表示如果之前持有了一些投机标的，最好趁高位抛售，如果是价值股，那拿着也没什么问题。 我的看法差不多，如果你有近期sell&nbsp;p","text":"假期发生了三件事：美货币政策进一步收紧，马斯克入股推特，中概股境外上市规定出台。按影响排序我们挨个谈谈看法。 1、美货币政策进一步收紧： 美联储理事鸽派代表布雷纳德周二表示，美联储最早可能5月开始缩表，并将以更为迅速地步伐缩减资产负债表。她还表示，加息的步伐可能会比25个基点的增幅更大。 此言论一出，美联储全面转鹰，国债利率倒挂，股票市场立刻由涨转跌，其中科技股领跌，英伟达大跌5%。 缩表是指美联储缩减自身资产负债表规模，和加息一样，是一种收紧货币政策的手段。在这之前市场就知道要加息缩表一起上，只不过不知道具体执行方法，今晚的美联储会议纪要或披露缩表细节，也许能够一定程度上稳定市场情绪，很关键。 市场受到如此惊吓也可以理解，因为布雷纳德这次发言表述了抑制通胀的决心：https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20220405a.htm 受通胀影响最严重的不是富人，相反富人持有资产，是通胀的受益者，所以就可以理解为什么抑制通胀股价会跌，股票也是一种资产嘛。 那么持有资产最少的人就是通胀的受害者。而且通胀最严重的食品等必需品消费，穷人占比是富人的两倍，通胀越严重，穷人越惨。为了穷人考虑美联储也要尽快抑制通胀，这就是布雷纳德转鹰的原因。 美国不同收入阶层受通胀影响图 如果是为底层人民考虑那确实好理解，不过对于市场来说有点惨。这段时间无论是航运还是外贸又或者是就业，均显示消费下降趋势。没有消费刺激，通胀自然而然会下降，只不过这个速度布雷纳德还是嫌慢。 航运牛股转熊 那我们如何看待这一轮股市回调呢？ 就在今天CNBC疯狂money节目的主持人吉米克莱默表示让大家快跑，资产要回调了。他表示如果之前持有了一些投机标的，最好趁高位抛售，如果是价值股，那拿着也没什么问题。 我的看法差不多，如果你有近期sell p","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d974dabc7de34b01698f46f98f376cbc","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619671022","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1090,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":613315217,"gmtCreate":1649716831938,"gmtModify":1649716832206,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613315217","repostId":"619127763","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":619127763,"gmtCreate":1649126347281,"gmtModify":1649127814477,"author":{"id":"3534312224764596","authorId":"3534312224764596","name":"Ivan_甘灿荣","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88507b8eb15a6e315e004663e5c9e31a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3534312224764596","authorIdStr":"3534312224764596"},"themes":[],"title":"商品区间顶来袭，还有上涨空间？","htmlText":"最近对于做多通胀（商品）的投资者来说，不是个好时间，几大类商品均陆续出现大幅调整，具体后市如何，我将会在帖子里和大家分享，具体的交易机会也会在本周四（7号）晚的直播里和大家详细解说，大家多多留意。 从目前美股指的走势看，加息预期已经无法击溃美股，因此美联储理论上已经不担心后续紧缩政策下对股市的影响，从而更针对通胀数据进行打压。那么对于商品来说无疑就是潜在利空。但历史上，靠政策打压通胀，通常都不会是一蹴而就，而是有个积累的过程（要打压市场对通胀的预期，和逐步提高囤积商品的成本），因此这个过程中，商品仍会有不少调整后做多的机会，大家把握好，收益也是可以的。 一、农产品 在3月底周五刚刚公布的USDA农作物种植面积意向报告，决定了农产品的阶段性走势。因此只要各农产品价格不创3月份的价格高点的话，那么阶段性看空至5-6月份。 农产品价格高，供应增多是正常的。但由于化肥土地成本等同步上升，会带来种植成本的进一步上涨，而目前农产品调整，其实就是市场预期当前农产品种植成本的过程，所以调整幅度并不好猜测。而到了5-6月份，种植面积确定后，这部分成本将初步敲定，农产品的整体价格就有了底线，后续再上涨就是对美国种植天气的预期。所以近期农产品的下跌，并不一定是历史大顶的形成，很可能后续还会因天气问题再来一次脉冲式的机会，所以仍需关注。 二、原油 在美国再一次释放战略石油储备和俄乌局势缓和的形势下，油价将逐步转弱。战略石油储备的释放对油价是有短期打压作用的，尤其是这趟公布出来的释放数字是差不多三分一的美国储备，如果联合其它盟国的释放，对油价短期影响不容忽视。至于中期的下跌幅度，预期将在75美元附近，毕竟战略石油储备抛出后，未来是要回补的，抛得越多，对未来油价的支撑力度越强，所以如果并非实质性的原油设施增加，那么油价其实并不需要特别悲观。但是大幅震荡是在所难免的。 短期策略上，油价有效跌穿（以收盘价","listText":"最近对于做多通胀（商品）的投资者来说，不是个好时间，几大类商品均陆续出现大幅调整，具体后市如何，我将会在帖子里和大家分享，具体的交易机会也会在本周四（7号）晚的直播里和大家详细解说，大家多多留意。 从目前美股指的走势看，加息预期已经无法击溃美股，因此美联储理论上已经不担心后续紧缩政策下对股市的影响，从而更针对通胀数据进行打压。那么对于商品来说无疑就是潜在利空。但历史上，靠政策打压通胀，通常都不会是一蹴而就，而是有个积累的过程（要打压市场对通胀的预期，和逐步提高囤积商品的成本），因此这个过程中，商品仍会有不少调整后做多的机会，大家把握好，收益也是可以的。 一、农产品 在3月底周五刚刚公布的USDA农作物种植面积意向报告，决定了农产品的阶段性走势。因此只要各农产品价格不创3月份的价格高点的话，那么阶段性看空至5-6月份。 农产品价格高，供应增多是正常的。但由于化肥土地成本等同步上升，会带来种植成本的进一步上涨，而目前农产品调整，其实就是市场预期当前农产品种植成本的过程，所以调整幅度并不好猜测。而到了5-6月份，种植面积确定后，这部分成本将初步敲定，农产品的整体价格就有了底线，后续再上涨就是对美国种植天气的预期。所以近期农产品的下跌，并不一定是历史大顶的形成，很可能后续还会因天气问题再来一次脉冲式的机会，所以仍需关注。 二、原油 在美国再一次释放战略石油储备和俄乌局势缓和的形势下，油价将逐步转弱。战略石油储备的释放对油价是有短期打压作用的，尤其是这趟公布出来的释放数字是差不多三分一的美国储备，如果联合其它盟国的释放，对油价短期影响不容忽视。至于中期的下跌幅度，预期将在75美元附近，毕竟战略石油储备抛出后，未来是要回补的，抛得越多，对未来油价的支撑力度越强，所以如果并非实质性的原油设施增加，那么油价其实并不需要特别悲观。但是大幅震荡是在所难免的。 短期策略上，油价有效跌穿（以收盘价","text":"最近对于做多通胀（商品）的投资者来说，不是个好时间，几大类商品均陆续出现大幅调整，具体后市如何，我将会在帖子里和大家分享，具体的交易机会也会在本周四（7号）晚的直播里和大家详细解说，大家多多留意。 从目前美股指的走势看，加息预期已经无法击溃美股，因此美联储理论上已经不担心后续紧缩政策下对股市的影响，从而更针对通胀数据进行打压。那么对于商品来说无疑就是潜在利空。但历史上，靠政策打压通胀，通常都不会是一蹴而就，而是有个积累的过程（要打压市场对通胀的预期，和逐步提高囤积商品的成本），因此这个过程中，商品仍会有不少调整后做多的机会，大家把握好，收益也是可以的。 一、农产品 在3月底周五刚刚公布的USDA农作物种植面积意向报告，决定了农产品的阶段性走势。因此只要各农产品价格不创3月份的价格高点的话，那么阶段性看空至5-6月份。 农产品价格高，供应增多是正常的。但由于化肥土地成本等同步上升，会带来种植成本的进一步上涨，而目前农产品调整，其实就是市场预期当前农产品种植成本的过程，所以调整幅度并不好猜测。而到了5-6月份，种植面积确定后，这部分成本将初步敲定，农产品的整体价格就有了底线，后续再上涨就是对美国种植天气的预期。所以近期农产品的下跌，并不一定是历史大顶的形成，很可能后续还会因天气问题再来一次脉冲式的机会，所以仍需关注。 二、原油 在美国再一次释放战略石油储备和俄乌局势缓和的形势下，油价将逐步转弱。战略石油储备的释放对油价是有短期打压作用的，尤其是这趟公布出来的释放数字是差不多三分一的美国储备，如果联合其它盟国的释放，对油价短期影响不容忽视。至于中期的下跌幅度，预期将在75美元附近，毕竟战略石油储备抛出后，未来是要回补的，抛得越多，对未来油价的支撑力度越强，所以如果并非实质性的原油设施增加，那么油价其实并不需要特别悲观。但是大幅震荡是在所难免的。 短期策略上，油价有效跌穿（以收盘价","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ffb5331c974d0c373e90646ac03f4a","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f4e658248e1d0a654384bff365dad143","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74b1f3d5628b2a7accf28937fabb33ac","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/619127763","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":613315880,"gmtCreate":1649716690351,"gmtModify":1649716690672,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U11.SI\">$UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$</a>&nbsp;bad day","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U11.SI\">$UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$</a>&nbsp;bad day","text":"$UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LIMITED(U11.SI)$ bad day","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac1ff30f1c9d5a0bf72077a559462ba6","width":"1440","height":"3063"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/613315880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":632040419,"gmtCreate":1646172980274,"gmtModify":1646172980504,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/632040419","repostId":"638268752","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":638268752,"gmtCreate":1645364945186,"gmtModify":1645392227649,"author":{"id":"3537499478386870","authorId":"3537499478386870","name":"大叔观点时间","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea86f242be3b8d003e109794195153c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3537499478386870","authorIdStr":"3537499478386870"},"themes":[],"title":"微软体量庞大，突飞困难，但是我们选择做多","htmlText":"今年，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;可以说表现非常亮眼了！在成功收购心心念念的动视暴雪之后，Q2财报营收利润双超预期，而且还在2021年底拿到了雅虎金融年度最佳公司，市值突破2万亿美元！但是，它的股价却波动剧烈，上下横跳，甚至有走衰的趋势，有人觉得微软体量庞大，突飞困难，也有人觉得微软老了，但是我们现在选择做多微软。原因有四：01业务结构微软在过去47年的表现虽然并不惊艳，但胜在稳定，在传统的软件之外，尝试了一些新的转型产品。2013年，随着整体市场的转暖，微软也完成了它的转型，根据前景规划，公司分成了4个部门：操作系统、应用软件、云服务、和硬件设备。市场对这样的调整也给出肯定，其股价从约30刀，涨到270刀（截止2021年上半年），8年9倍，平均每年的复合回报31%。也就是说，最近这8年，增长的速度要超过整体35年的平均速度。也就是说投资界又重新看好了它的股价和未来。为什么会有这样的情况，我们试着从它的业务规划来解读一下：·&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;个人计算（含操作系统Windows等）。视窗继续在作贡献，这个阶段推出了Windows 10， 大叔正在用这个，2021年Windows 11也出来了，用操作系统来统治整个生态，依然是它的强项，全球月活跃用户超15亿，几乎人人都要用。·&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;生产力和业务流程（含应用软件、如Office，领英等）。这个阶段推出了Office 365，大叔也在用Office、也在用领英，原来电脑本地安装的软件，现在变成了一个云里的应用软件和软件服务，每年付年费，自动更新。Office的用户以数十亿计，也是人人都要用。·&nbsp;&nbsp;&amp;nb","listText":"今年，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;可以说表现非常亮眼了！在成功收购心心念念的动视暴雪之后，Q2财报营收利润双超预期，而且还在2021年底拿到了雅虎金融年度最佳公司，市值突破2万亿美元！但是，它的股价却波动剧烈，上下横跳，甚至有走衰的趋势，有人觉得微软体量庞大，突飞困难，也有人觉得微软老了，但是我们现在选择做多微软。原因有四：01业务结构微软在过去47年的表现虽然并不惊艳，但胜在稳定，在传统的软件之外，尝试了一些新的转型产品。2013年，随着整体市场的转暖，微软也完成了它的转型，根据前景规划，公司分成了4个部门：操作系统、应用软件、云服务、和硬件设备。市场对这样的调整也给出肯定，其股价从约30刀，涨到270刀（截止2021年上半年），8年9倍，平均每年的复合回报31%。也就是说，最近这8年，增长的速度要超过整体35年的平均速度。也就是说投资界又重新看好了它的股价和未来。为什么会有这样的情况，我们试着从它的业务规划来解读一下：·&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;个人计算（含操作系统Windows等）。视窗继续在作贡献，这个阶段推出了Windows 10， 大叔正在用这个，2021年Windows 11也出来了，用操作系统来统治整个生态，依然是它的强项，全球月活跃用户超15亿，几乎人人都要用。·&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;生产力和业务流程（含应用软件、如Office，领英等）。这个阶段推出了Office 365，大叔也在用Office、也在用领英，原来电脑本地安装的软件，现在变成了一个云里的应用软件和软件服务，每年付年费，自动更新。Office的用户以数十亿计，也是人人都要用。·&nbsp;&nbsp;&amp;nb","text":"今年，$微软(MSFT)$ 可以说表现非常亮眼了！在成功收购心心念念的动视暴雪之后，Q2财报营收利润双超预期，而且还在2021年底拿到了雅虎金融年度最佳公司，市值突破2万亿美元！但是，它的股价却波动剧烈，上下横跳，甚至有走衰的趋势，有人觉得微软体量庞大，突飞困难，也有人觉得微软老了，但是我们现在选择做多微软。原因有四：01业务结构微软在过去47年的表现虽然并不惊艳，但胜在稳定，在传统的软件之外，尝试了一些新的转型产品。2013年，随着整体市场的转暖，微软也完成了它的转型，根据前景规划，公司分成了4个部门：操作系统、应用软件、云服务、和硬件设备。市场对这样的调整也给出肯定，其股价从约30刀，涨到270刀（截止2021年上半年），8年9倍，平均每年的复合回报31%。也就是说，最近这8年，增长的速度要超过整体35年的平均速度。也就是说投资界又重新看好了它的股价和未来。为什么会有这样的情况，我们试着从它的业务规划来解读一下：· 个人计算（含操作系统Windows等）。视窗继续在作贡献，这个阶段推出了Windows 10， 大叔正在用这个，2021年Windows 11也出来了，用操作系统来统治整个生态，依然是它的强项，全球月活跃用户超15亿，几乎人人都要用。· 生产力和业务流程（含应用软件、如Office，领英等）。这个阶段推出了Office 365，大叔也在用Office、也在用领英，原来电脑本地安装的软件，现在变成了一个云里的应用软件和软件服务，每年付年费，自动更新。Office的用户以数十亿计，也是人人都要用。· &nb","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14512d61176fc855407974bddd53bec7"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638268752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":632040536,"gmtCreate":1646172966778,"gmtModify":1646172967024,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/632040536","repostId":"636342021","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":636342021,"gmtCreate":1645688741245,"gmtModify":1744852507918,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"交易员Owen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争？","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/636630445\" target=\"_blank\">关于文章争议点的回应</a> 乌克兰和俄罗斯局势的有些话太敏感，而且我已经很久没有混迹社区了，所以这次低调一些，谈一谈为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争， 这么说吧，无论乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突最后如何发展，从实际意义上讲，美国其实已经赢了。 第一，乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突爆发后，俄国顺理成章的受到了来自西方各国的制裁，北溪2号的天然气管道已经确认停运，德国刚刚正式暂停了北溪2号的认证工作。俄罗斯的能源出口受到影响，经济前景压力变大，俄罗斯包括周边国家的局势陷入混乱，其他新兴经济体遭受冲击，亚太这边的市场局面是不是被搞乱了？ 来看一眼MSCI亚太地区的ETF走势，去年8月开始，就是一个长期的探底走势。 第二，美国“拱火”乌俄，是不是把自己的队友：欧洲诸国，也就是北约联盟的一众国家给成功拖下水了？他们以后的天然气，石油这些资源谁来保障？ 要知道，欧盟的能源是极其依赖俄罗斯出口的，两边长时间的发展格局是：在对抗中求合作，在博弈中求发展，我们来看一张图就明白了： 2019年到2020年，欧盟国家进口天然气数量占比最大的两个国家，第一是俄罗斯，第二是挪威。 现在好了，欧盟跟着美国一起制裁俄罗斯，根本就是砸了个西瓜，抱了个甜瓜回来，往后能源价格飙升，物价飞涨，企业成本高企，发展滞涨的影响是少不了的。 第三，美国拉着一帮小弟制裁俄罗斯。让局面向着冲突升级上发展，是不是成功的把美元指数给托了上去？ 为什么，因为历来美元都是是第一避险资产啊，大家可能只了解黄金是地缘冲突后的首选，其实在这种危机事件走向不明确的时候，美元往往会收获一大批的避险买盘。 更重要的是，美股当下的市场情绪极度看空，随时都有跌破支撑位再度下杀的可能，那么接下来大概率的剧情是：美股市场下跌，甚至会拖累实体经济走弱，GD","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/636630445\" target=\"_blank\">关于文章争议点的回应</a> 乌克兰和俄罗斯局势的有些话太敏感，而且我已经很久没有混迹社区了，所以这次低调一些，谈一谈为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争， 这么说吧，无论乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突最后如何发展，从实际意义上讲，美国其实已经赢了。 第一，乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突爆发后，俄国顺理成章的受到了来自西方各国的制裁，北溪2号的天然气管道已经确认停运，德国刚刚正式暂停了北溪2号的认证工作。俄罗斯的能源出口受到影响，经济前景压力变大，俄罗斯包括周边国家的局势陷入混乱，其他新兴经济体遭受冲击，亚太这边的市场局面是不是被搞乱了？ 来看一眼MSCI亚太地区的ETF走势，去年8月开始，就是一个长期的探底走势。 第二，美国“拱火”乌俄，是不是把自己的队友：欧洲诸国，也就是北约联盟的一众国家给成功拖下水了？他们以后的天然气，石油这些资源谁来保障？ 要知道，欧盟的能源是极其依赖俄罗斯出口的，两边长时间的发展格局是：在对抗中求合作，在博弈中求发展，我们来看一张图就明白了： 2019年到2020年，欧盟国家进口天然气数量占比最大的两个国家，第一是俄罗斯，第二是挪威。 现在好了，欧盟跟着美国一起制裁俄罗斯，根本就是砸了个西瓜，抱了个甜瓜回来，往后能源价格飙升，物价飞涨，企业成本高企，发展滞涨的影响是少不了的。 第三，美国拉着一帮小弟制裁俄罗斯。让局面向着冲突升级上发展，是不是成功的把美元指数给托了上去？ 为什么，因为历来美元都是是第一避险资产啊，大家可能只了解黄金是地缘冲突后的首选，其实在这种危机事件走向不明确的时候，美元往往会收获一大批的避险买盘。 更重要的是，美股当下的市场情绪极度看空，随时都有跌破支撑位再度下杀的可能，那么接下来大概率的剧情是：美股市场下跌，甚至会拖累实体经济走弱，GD","text":"关于文章争议点的回应 乌克兰和俄罗斯局势的有些话太敏感，而且我已经很久没有混迹社区了，所以这次低调一些，谈一谈为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争， 这么说吧，无论乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突最后如何发展，从实际意义上讲，美国其实已经赢了。 第一，乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突爆发后，俄国顺理成章的受到了来自西方各国的制裁，北溪2号的天然气管道已经确认停运，德国刚刚正式暂停了北溪2号的认证工作。俄罗斯的能源出口受到影响，经济前景压力变大，俄罗斯包括周边国家的局势陷入混乱，其他新兴经济体遭受冲击，亚太这边的市场局面是不是被搞乱了？ 来看一眼MSCI亚太地区的ETF走势，去年8月开始，就是一个长期的探底走势。 第二，美国“拱火”乌俄，是不是把自己的队友：欧洲诸国，也就是北约联盟的一众国家给成功拖下水了？他们以后的天然气，石油这些资源谁来保障？ 要知道，欧盟的能源是极其依赖俄罗斯出口的，两边长时间的发展格局是：在对抗中求合作，在博弈中求发展，我们来看一张图就明白了： 2019年到2020年，欧盟国家进口天然气数量占比最大的两个国家，第一是俄罗斯，第二是挪威。 现在好了，欧盟跟着美国一起制裁俄罗斯，根本就是砸了个西瓜，抱了个甜瓜回来，往后能源价格飙升，物价飞涨，企业成本高企，发展滞涨的影响是少不了的。 第三，美国拉着一帮小弟制裁俄罗斯。让局面向着冲突升级上发展，是不是成功的把美元指数给托了上去？ 为什么，因为历来美元都是是第一避险资产啊，大家可能只了解黄金是地缘冲突后的首选，其实在这种危机事件走向不明确的时候，美元往往会收获一大批的避险买盘。 更重要的是，美股当下的市场情绪极度看空，随时都有跌破支撑位再度下杀的可能，那么接下来大概率的剧情是：美股市场下跌，甚至会拖累实体经济走弱，GD","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a604b21c281b4288e60ddbf879be688","width":"1080","height":"597"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ec9bc2e915616286fd97bd5f84f7e1","width":"1000","height":"797"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b4635ae81a23537dbbaa8cebb3c573a","width":"1080","height":"478"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636342021","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":632040253,"gmtCreate":1646172952836,"gmtModify":1646172953140,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/632040253","repostId":"638707367","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":638707367,"gmtCreate":1645518160329,"gmtModify":1645527090263,"author":{"id":"3502860692623653","authorId":"3502860692623653","name":"爱上趋势股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f4521614b0cae62aff9fa7fa80fa77","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502860692623653","authorIdStr":"3502860692623653"},"themes":[],"title":"芒格坚持买入阿里巴巴的原因是什么？","htmlText":"这几天讨论芒格老爷子的挺多，一位年近100岁高龄的股神，被<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> 套了一年，不断补仓，补成了第三大持仓股。 具体情况是： 2021年第一季度，阿里巴巴的股价从高位跌去了30%，然后芒格开始建仓，成本大概是 220-270 美元； 三季度，阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%，开始在140 美元左右补仓； 四季度，阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%，老爷子直接加大了买入力度，将持仓股翻了一倍，达到60多万，成为自己的第三大持仓股。 有人给测算了一下，此时芒格整体仍亏损20%左右。 芒格为啥如此钟爱阿里？ 他说的很简单，对中国经济有信心、对阿里有信心，好像有点赌中国国运的意思。 其实芒格这波操作，像极巴菲特当年抄底<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 。 在2018年，苹果这样的巨头也出现过腰斩的走势；而巴菲特正式在这一年疯狂买入苹果的股票，成为<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a> 第一重仓股，后来仅3年多时间，苹果就从低点翻了6倍： 2018年暴跌后的苹果走势 事实上，每一轮优质资产的暴跌，在芒格、巴菲特等人眼中，都是他们所说的“别人恐惧，我贪婪”的机会。 那么，为什么芒格会看中阿里巴巴？ 很多人认为，由于","listText":"这几天讨论芒格老爷子的挺多，一位年近100岁高龄的股神，被<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> 套了一年，不断补仓，补成了第三大持仓股。 具体情况是： 2021年第一季度，阿里巴巴的股价从高位跌去了30%，然后芒格开始建仓，成本大概是 220-270 美元； 三季度，阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%，开始在140 美元左右补仓； 四季度，阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%，老爷子直接加大了买入力度，将持仓股翻了一倍，达到60多万，成为自己的第三大持仓股。 有人给测算了一下，此时芒格整体仍亏损20%左右。 芒格为啥如此钟爱阿里？ 他说的很简单，对中国经济有信心、对阿里有信心，好像有点赌中国国运的意思。 其实芒格这波操作，像极巴菲特当年抄底<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 。 在2018年，苹果这样的巨头也出现过腰斩的走势；而巴菲特正式在这一年疯狂买入苹果的股票，成为<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a> 第一重仓股，后来仅3年多时间，苹果就从低点翻了6倍： 2018年暴跌后的苹果走势 事实上，每一轮优质资产的暴跌，在芒格、巴菲特等人眼中，都是他们所说的“别人恐惧，我贪婪”的机会。 那么，为什么芒格会看中阿里巴巴？ 很多人认为，由于","text":"这几天讨论芒格老爷子的挺多，一位年近100岁高龄的股神，被$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 套了一年，不断补仓，补成了第三大持仓股。 具体情况是： 2021年第一季度，阿里巴巴的股价从高位跌去了30%，然后芒格开始建仓，成本大概是 220-270 美元； 三季度，阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%，开始在140 美元左右补仓； 四季度，阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%，老爷子直接加大了买入力度，将持仓股翻了一倍，达到60多万，成为自己的第三大持仓股。 有人给测算了一下，此时芒格整体仍亏损20%左右。 芒格为啥如此钟爱阿里？ 他说的很简单，对中国经济有信心、对阿里有信心，好像有点赌中国国运的意思。 其实芒格这波操作，像极巴菲特当年抄底$苹果(AAPL)$ 。 在2018年，苹果这样的巨头也出现过腰斩的走势；而巴菲特正式在这一年疯狂买入苹果的股票，成为$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$ 第一重仓股，后来仅3年多时间，苹果就从低点翻了6倍： 2018年暴跌后的苹果走势 事实上，每一轮优质资产的暴跌，在芒格、巴菲特等人眼中，都是他们所说的“别人恐惧，我贪婪”的机会。 那么，为什么芒格会看中阿里巴巴？ 很多人认为，由于","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f19baedea4e72c6eae8b548e67873552","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/585302ff264dadb49345e7557ad08121","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45fc39a4f3fb8f4deffbcc13d623137d","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638707367","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":6,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1881,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636519150,"gmtCreate":1646006105107,"gmtModify":1646006105306,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>nice","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$nice","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd9ecee189529b106b42f38b71e53c6","width":"1440","height":"2560"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636519150","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636519918,"gmtCreate":1646006073100,"gmtModify":1646006073294,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636519918","repostId":"638268752","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":638268752,"gmtCreate":1645364945186,"gmtModify":1645392227649,"author":{"id":"3537499478386870","authorId":"3537499478386870","name":"大叔观点时间","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea86f242be3b8d003e109794195153c","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3537499478386870","authorIdStr":"3537499478386870"},"themes":[],"title":"微软体量庞大，突飞困难，但是我们选择做多","htmlText":"今年，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;可以说表现非常亮眼了！在成功收购心心念念的动视暴雪之后，Q2财报营收利润双超预期，而且还在2021年底拿到了雅虎金融年度最佳公司，市值突破2万亿美元！但是，它的股价却波动剧烈，上下横跳，甚至有走衰的趋势，有人觉得微软体量庞大，突飞困难，也有人觉得微软老了，但是我们现在选择做多微软。原因有四：01业务结构微软在过去47年的表现虽然并不惊艳，但胜在稳定，在传统的软件之外，尝试了一些新的转型产品。2013年，随着整体市场的转暖，微软也完成了它的转型，根据前景规划，公司分成了4个部门：操作系统、应用软件、云服务、和硬件设备。市场对这样的调整也给出肯定，其股价从约30刀，涨到270刀（截止2021年上半年），8年9倍，平均每年的复合回报31%。也就是说，最近这8年，增长的速度要超过整体35年的平均速度。也就是说投资界又重新看好了它的股价和未来。为什么会有这样的情况，我们试着从它的业务规划来解读一下：·&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;个人计算（含操作系统Windows等）。视窗继续在作贡献，这个阶段推出了Windows 10， 大叔正在用这个，2021年Windows 11也出来了，用操作系统来统治整个生态，依然是它的强项，全球月活跃用户超15亿，几乎人人都要用。·&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;生产力和业务流程（含应用软件、如Office，领英等）。这个阶段推出了Office 365，大叔也在用Office、也在用领英，原来电脑本地安装的软件，现在变成了一个云里的应用软件和软件服务，每年付年费，自动更新。Office的用户以数十亿计，也是人人都要用。·&nbsp;&nbsp;&amp;nb","listText":"今年，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a>&nbsp;可以说表现非常亮眼了！在成功收购心心念念的动视暴雪之后，Q2财报营收利润双超预期，而且还在2021年底拿到了雅虎金融年度最佳公司，市值突破2万亿美元！但是，它的股价却波动剧烈，上下横跳，甚至有走衰的趋势，有人觉得微软体量庞大，突飞困难，也有人觉得微软老了，但是我们现在选择做多微软。原因有四：01业务结构微软在过去47年的表现虽然并不惊艳，但胜在稳定，在传统的软件之外，尝试了一些新的转型产品。2013年，随着整体市场的转暖，微软也完成了它的转型，根据前景规划，公司分成了4个部门：操作系统、应用软件、云服务、和硬件设备。市场对这样的调整也给出肯定，其股价从约30刀，涨到270刀（截止2021年上半年），8年9倍，平均每年的复合回报31%。也就是说，最近这8年，增长的速度要超过整体35年的平均速度。也就是说投资界又重新看好了它的股价和未来。为什么会有这样的情况，我们试着从它的业务规划来解读一下：·&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;个人计算（含操作系统Windows等）。视窗继续在作贡献，这个阶段推出了Windows 10， 大叔正在用这个，2021年Windows 11也出来了，用操作系统来统治整个生态，依然是它的强项，全球月活跃用户超15亿，几乎人人都要用。·&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;生产力和业务流程（含应用软件、如Office，领英等）。这个阶段推出了Office 365，大叔也在用Office、也在用领英，原来电脑本地安装的软件，现在变成了一个云里的应用软件和软件服务，每年付年费，自动更新。Office的用户以数十亿计，也是人人都要用。·&nbsp;&nbsp;&amp;nb","text":"今年，$微软(MSFT)$ 可以说表现非常亮眼了！在成功收购心心念念的动视暴雪之后，Q2财报营收利润双超预期，而且还在2021年底拿到了雅虎金融年度最佳公司，市值突破2万亿美元！但是，它的股价却波动剧烈，上下横跳，甚至有走衰的趋势，有人觉得微软体量庞大，突飞困难，也有人觉得微软老了，但是我们现在选择做多微软。原因有四：01业务结构微软在过去47年的表现虽然并不惊艳，但胜在稳定，在传统的软件之外，尝试了一些新的转型产品。2013年，随着整体市场的转暖，微软也完成了它的转型，根据前景规划，公司分成了4个部门：操作系统、应用软件、云服务、和硬件设备。市场对这样的调整也给出肯定，其股价从约30刀，涨到270刀（截止2021年上半年），8年9倍，平均每年的复合回报31%。也就是说，最近这8年，增长的速度要超过整体35年的平均速度。也就是说投资界又重新看好了它的股价和未来。为什么会有这样的情况，我们试着从它的业务规划来解读一下：· 个人计算（含操作系统Windows等）。视窗继续在作贡献，这个阶段推出了Windows 10， 大叔正在用这个，2021年Windows 11也出来了，用操作系统来统治整个生态，依然是它的强项，全球月活跃用户超15亿，几乎人人都要用。· 生产力和业务流程（含应用软件、如Office，领英等）。这个阶段推出了Office 365，大叔也在用Office、也在用领英，原来电脑本地安装的软件，现在变成了一个云里的应用软件和软件服务，每年付年费，自动更新。Office的用户以数十亿计，也是人人都要用。· &nb","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14512d61176fc855407974bddd53bec7"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/638268752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636510725,"gmtCreate":1646006060579,"gmtModify":1646006060781,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636510725","repostId":"636342021","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":636342021,"gmtCreate":1645688741245,"gmtModify":1744852507918,"author":{"id":"3491416357875149","authorId":"3491416357875149","name":"交易员Owen","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e18f8a3a764631dcc921c6316d840259","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3491416357875149","authorIdStr":"3491416357875149"},"themes":[],"title":"为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争？","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/636630445\" target=\"_blank\">关于文章争议点的回应</a> 乌克兰和俄罗斯局势的有些话太敏感，而且我已经很久没有混迹社区了，所以这次低调一些，谈一谈为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争， 这么说吧，无论乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突最后如何发展，从实际意义上讲，美国其实已经赢了。 第一，乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突爆发后，俄国顺理成章的受到了来自西方各国的制裁，北溪2号的天然气管道已经确认停运，德国刚刚正式暂停了北溪2号的认证工作。俄罗斯的能源出口受到影响，经济前景压力变大，俄罗斯包括周边国家的局势陷入混乱，其他新兴经济体遭受冲击，亚太这边的市场局面是不是被搞乱了？ 来看一眼MSCI亚太地区的ETF走势，去年8月开始，就是一个长期的探底走势。 第二，美国“拱火”乌俄，是不是把自己的队友：欧洲诸国，也就是北约联盟的一众国家给成功拖下水了？他们以后的天然气，石油这些资源谁来保障？ 要知道，欧盟的能源是极其依赖俄罗斯出口的，两边长时间的发展格局是：在对抗中求合作，在博弈中求发展，我们来看一张图就明白了： 2019年到2020年，欧盟国家进口天然气数量占比最大的两个国家，第一是俄罗斯，第二是挪威。 现在好了，欧盟跟着美国一起制裁俄罗斯，根本就是砸了个西瓜，抱了个甜瓜回来，往后能源价格飙升，物价飞涨，企业成本高企，发展滞涨的影响是少不了的。 第三，美国拉着一帮小弟制裁俄罗斯。让局面向着冲突升级上发展，是不是成功的把美元指数给托了上去？ 为什么，因为历来美元都是是第一避险资产啊，大家可能只了解黄金是地缘冲突后的首选，其实在这种危机事件走向不明确的时候，美元往往会收获一大批的避险买盘。 更重要的是，美股当下的市场情绪极度看空，随时都有跌破支撑位再度下杀的可能，那么接下来大概率的剧情是：美股市场下跌，甚至会拖累实体经济走弱，GD","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/636630445\" target=\"_blank\">关于文章争议点的回应</a> 乌克兰和俄罗斯局势的有些话太敏感，而且我已经很久没有混迹社区了，所以这次低调一些，谈一谈为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争， 这么说吧，无论乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突最后如何发展，从实际意义上讲，美国其实已经赢了。 第一，乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突爆发后，俄国顺理成章的受到了来自西方各国的制裁，北溪2号的天然气管道已经确认停运，德国刚刚正式暂停了北溪2号的认证工作。俄罗斯的能源出口受到影响，经济前景压力变大，俄罗斯包括周边国家的局势陷入混乱，其他新兴经济体遭受冲击，亚太这边的市场局面是不是被搞乱了？ 来看一眼MSCI亚太地区的ETF走势，去年8月开始，就是一个长期的探底走势。 第二，美国“拱火”乌俄，是不是把自己的队友：欧洲诸国，也就是北约联盟的一众国家给成功拖下水了？他们以后的天然气，石油这些资源谁来保障？ 要知道，欧盟的能源是极其依赖俄罗斯出口的，两边长时间的发展格局是：在对抗中求合作，在博弈中求发展，我们来看一张图就明白了： 2019年到2020年，欧盟国家进口天然气数量占比最大的两个国家，第一是俄罗斯，第二是挪威。 现在好了，欧盟跟着美国一起制裁俄罗斯，根本就是砸了个西瓜，抱了个甜瓜回来，往后能源价格飙升，物价飞涨，企业成本高企，发展滞涨的影响是少不了的。 第三，美国拉着一帮小弟制裁俄罗斯。让局面向着冲突升级上发展，是不是成功的把美元指数给托了上去？ 为什么，因为历来美元都是是第一避险资产啊，大家可能只了解黄金是地缘冲突后的首选，其实在这种危机事件走向不明确的时候，美元往往会收获一大批的避险买盘。 更重要的是，美股当下的市场情绪极度看空，随时都有跌破支撑位再度下杀的可能，那么接下来大概率的剧情是：美股市场下跌，甚至会拖累实体经济走弱，GD","text":"关于文章争议点的回应 乌克兰和俄罗斯局势的有些话太敏感，而且我已经很久没有混迹社区了，所以这次低调一些，谈一谈为什么美国非要拱火发动一场战争， 这么说吧，无论乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突最后如何发展，从实际意义上讲，美国其实已经赢了。 第一，乌克兰和俄罗斯的冲突爆发后，俄国顺理成章的受到了来自西方各国的制裁，北溪2号的天然气管道已经确认停运，德国刚刚正式暂停了北溪2号的认证工作。俄罗斯的能源出口受到影响，经济前景压力变大，俄罗斯包括周边国家的局势陷入混乱，其他新兴经济体遭受冲击，亚太这边的市场局面是不是被搞乱了？ 来看一眼MSCI亚太地区的ETF走势，去年8月开始，就是一个长期的探底走势。 第二，美国“拱火”乌俄，是不是把自己的队友：欧洲诸国，也就是北约联盟的一众国家给成功拖下水了？他们以后的天然气，石油这些资源谁来保障？ 要知道，欧盟的能源是极其依赖俄罗斯出口的，两边长时间的发展格局是：在对抗中求合作，在博弈中求发展，我们来看一张图就明白了： 2019年到2020年，欧盟国家进口天然气数量占比最大的两个国家，第一是俄罗斯，第二是挪威。 现在好了，欧盟跟着美国一起制裁俄罗斯，根本就是砸了个西瓜，抱了个甜瓜回来，往后能源价格飙升，物价飞涨，企业成本高企，发展滞涨的影响是少不了的。 第三，美国拉着一帮小弟制裁俄罗斯。让局面向着冲突升级上发展，是不是成功的把美元指数给托了上去？ 为什么，因为历来美元都是是第一避险资产啊，大家可能只了解黄金是地缘冲突后的首选，其实在这种危机事件走向不明确的时候，美元往往会收获一大批的避险买盘。 更重要的是，美股当下的市场情绪极度看空，随时都有跌破支撑位再度下杀的可能，那么接下来大概率的剧情是：美股市场下跌，甚至会拖累实体经济走弱，GD","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a604b21c281b4288e60ddbf879be688","width":"1080","height":"597"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ec9bc2e915616286fd97bd5f84f7e1","width":"1000","height":"797"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b4635ae81a23537dbbaa8cebb3c573a","width":"1080","height":"478"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636342021","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":7,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636510234,"gmtCreate":1646006047106,"gmtModify":1646006047373,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636510234","repostId":"638707367","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":638707367,"gmtCreate":1645518160329,"gmtModify":1645527090263,"author":{"id":"3502860692623653","authorId":"3502860692623653","name":"爱上趋势股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17f4521614b0cae62aff9fa7fa80fa77","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502860692623653","authorIdStr":"3502860692623653"},"themes":[],"title":"芒格坚持买入阿里巴巴的原因是什么？","htmlText":"这几天讨论芒格老爷子的挺多，一位年近100岁高龄的股神，被<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> 套了一年，不断补仓，补成了第三大持仓股。 具体情况是： 2021年第一季度，阿里巴巴的股价从高位跌去了30%，然后芒格开始建仓，成本大概是 220-270 美元； 三季度，阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%，开始在140 美元左右补仓； 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 。 在2018年，苹果这样的巨头也出现过腰斩的走势；而巴菲特正式在这一年疯狂买入苹果的股票，成为<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\"></a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$</a> 第一重仓股，后来仅3年多时间，苹果就从低点翻了6倍： 2018年暴跌后的苹果走势 事实上，每一轮优质资产的暴跌，在芒格、巴菲特等人眼中，都是他们所说的“别人恐惧，我贪婪”的机会。 那么，为什么芒格会看中阿里巴巴？ 很多人认为，由于","text":"这几天讨论芒格老爷子的挺多，一位年近100岁高龄的股神，被$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 套了一年，不断补仓，补成了第三大持仓股。 具体情况是： 2021年第一季度，阿里巴巴的股价从高位跌去了30%，然后芒格开始建仓，成本大概是 220-270 美元； 三季度，阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%，开始在140 美元左右补仓； 四季度，阿里巴巴的股价又跌了30%，老爷子直接加大了买入力度，将持仓股翻了一倍，达到60多万，成为自己的第三大持仓股。 有人给测算了一下，此时芒格整体仍亏损20%左右。 芒格为啥如此钟爱阿里？ 他说的很简单，对中国经济有信心、对阿里有信心，好像有点赌中国国运的意思。 其实芒格这波操作，像极巴菲特当年抄底$苹果(AAPL)$ 。 在2018年，苹果这样的巨头也出现过腰斩的走势；而巴菲特正式在这一年疯狂买入苹果的股票，成为$伯克希尔(BRK.A)$ 第一重仓股，后来仅3年多时间，苹果就从低点翻了6倍： 2018年暴跌后的苹果走势 事实上，每一轮优质资产的暴跌，在芒格、巴菲特等人眼中，都是他们所说的“别人恐惧，我贪婪”的机会。 那么，为什么芒格会看中阿里巴巴？ 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07:09","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"外媒头条：小摩预计二季度油价或飙升至110美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2213918896","media":"市场资讯","summary":"　　摩根大通预计，在乌克兰危机持续升级推动下，第二季平均油价可能上看110美元。　　包括Natasha Kaneva在内的摩根大通分析师在一份报告中写道，原油价格可能在下一季度持续高企，然后在今年年底回落至平均每桶90美元的水平。　　布伦特本周涨至离每桶100美元咫尺之遥，还是2014年以来首见。　　摩根大通分析师表示，布伦特原油下一季度的均价在每桶110美元，西德克萨斯中质油料为107美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：</b></p><blockquote><b>1、乌克兰危机难降温 小摩预计二季度油价或飙升至110美元</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>2、俄罗斯卢布跌至疫情期以来最低 期权显示汇率还未触底</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>3、美国考虑释放石油储备 以应对乌克兰局势导致的油价飙升</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>4、美国上周住房贷款申请指数大幅下降 因抵押贷款利率上升</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>：对冲基金轮替投资配置 大幅削减科技股</b></blockquote><blockquote><b>6、欧洲央行管委称任何货币政策正常化都应循序渐进</b></blockquote><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aeea1aa8fb2b8b9a70757932f549ad5\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"366\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>乌克兰危机难降温 小摩预计二季度油价或飙升至110美元</b></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>预计，在乌克兰危机持续升级推动下，第二季平均油价可能上看110美元。</p><p>包括Natasha Kaneva在内的摩根大通分析师在一份报告中写道，原油价格可能在下一季度持续高企，然后在今年年底回落至平均每桶90美元的水平。</p><p>该预测假设乌克兰紧张局势进一步升级，同时伊朗核协议达成，得以向市场注入一些供应。</p><p>布伦特本周涨至离每桶100美元咫尺之遥，还是2014年以来首见。东欧紧张局势给油价煽风点火的同时，交易员还预计，供不应求的局面正在压缩全球石油库存。</p><p>摩根大通分析师表示，布伦特原油下一季度的均价在每桶110美元，西德克萨斯中质油料为107美元。这一目标比该行先前的预估都高出22美元。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34912b68920ceddb71b515b9f5e7ed8d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"313\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>俄罗斯卢布跌至疫情期以来最低 期权显示汇率还未触底</b></p><p>对于今年已经出现历史性下跌的俄罗斯市场，交易员传达的信息是，未来卢布可能还要继续下行。</p><p>卢布兑美元周三延续跌势，触及2020年3月疫情开始以来的最低水平。期权定价显示，卢布兑美元在未来两个月内跌至纪录低点的可能性为50%。2016年卢布跌至纪录低位时经济正陷入衰退。技术分析师也持同样观点，认为卢布兑美元的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>接近失守。</p><p>道明证券投资组合策略主管Cristian Maggio表示，“卢布的疲软程度将大于预期”。</p><p>俄乌局势升级令俄罗斯金融市场受到重创。虽然周二资产价格因为交易员对制裁措施的影响仍存疑而有所反弹，但基准指数徘徊在多年低点附近。</p><p>卢布和乌克兰格里夫纳都是今年表现垫底的货币，兑美元跌幅超过7%。在股市方面，自10月以来，莫斯科基准的MOEX指数已下跌近三分之一。俄罗斯市场周三因公共假日休市，但RTS股指期货暗示股市周四重新开市时可能会迎来下跌。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d9eeb50d95e4286b582ab4d975ad9b9\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>美国考虑释放石油储备 以应对乌克兰局势导致的油价飙升</b></p><p>两位知情人士透露，拜登政府正考虑再次动用战略石油储备，与盟友联手应对乌克兰局势导致的油价飙升。</p><p>知情人士称，虽然尚未做出决定，但政府内部正在进行“活跃对话”，包括潜在的价格触发点，以及如何与其他国家协调释放石油储备。由于这些政府内部讨论尚未公开，知情人士要求匿名。他们说，正在建模以确定潜在释放储备石油的规模和范围。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USEG\">美国能源</a>部不予置评。白宫以及国家安全委员会未立即回复置评请求。</p><p>白宫去年11月批准从战略石油储备中释放5000万桶原油，联手印度、日本、韩国等以应对经济从疫情中恢复之际出现的油价飙升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c954ec9ae7251d380ca04f26e78f38b8\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>美国上周住房贷款申请指数大幅下降 因抵押贷款利率上升</b></p><p>一项美国住房贷款申请指标在上周降至2019年末以来最低水平，表明抵押贷款利率上升正对房地产市场构成更大压力。</p><p>美国抵押贷款银行协会（MBA）周三公布，截至2月18日一周抵押贷款申请指数下降13.1%至466.4。</p><p>购买指数下跌逾10%至去年8月中旬以来最低水平。再融资指标上周下降15.6%，达2019年12月以来最弱。</p><p>30年期固定利率贷款的合约利率上周小幅上升至4.06%，为2019年7月以来最高水平。自2021年末以来，该利率已上升近0.75个百分点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/735ef65461d43994749ce336651e890d\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"309\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>高盛：对冲基金轮替投资配置 大幅削减科技股</b></p><p>根据高盛集团的数据，美国对冲基金不断削减科技股的头寸，并且从2022年开始比十多年来任何时候都更倾向于配置便宜的股票。</p><p>“文件显示，对冲基金根据与过去几年大部分时间不同的股票市场环境而配置部位，”以Ben Snider为首的策略师在给客户的报告中写道。他表示，股票头寸总计达2.6万亿美元的基金已经减持较为昂贵的增长型股票，转向偏好持有能源和金融股。</p><p>高盛的分析是基于截至2月15日发布的788档对冲基金的“13F报告（揭露美股持仓部位的季度报告）”。分析显示，虽然标准普尔500科技巨头之下包括苹果公司和微软公司在内的所谓“FAAMG”集团仍然是最受欢迎的多头头寸，对冲基金持续将投资组合从增长股转向所谓的价值股。</p><p>截至12月31日的调整后部位显示，对冲基金更倾向于价值股，且为2011年以来之最，这已经反映在今年的市场走势中。标准普尔500指数周二陷入回调，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数今年下跌15%，原因是因通胀飙升，美联储的态度越来越偏鹰派。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7efcf46580ffb6d49facb763d86d0799\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"367\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>欧洲央行管委称任何货币政策正常化都应循序渐进</b></p><p>欧洲央行管理委员会成员Pablo Hernandez de Cos表示，任何货币政策正常化都应该是循序渐进的，并且只有在资产净购买结束之后才开始。</p><p>de Cos表示，预计中期内通胀率不会持续高于2%的目标。</p><p>兼任西班牙央行行长的de Cos称，不能排除首次加息条件满足时间早于原先预期的可能性。考虑到高度的不确定性，欧洲央行必须灵活并对所有选项持开放心态。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外媒头条：小摩预计二季度油价或飙升至110美元</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外媒头条：小摩预计二季度油价或飙升至110美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-24 07:09 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-02-24/doc-imcwiwss2585607.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、乌克兰危机难降温 小摩预计二季度油价或飙升至110美元2、俄罗斯卢布跌至疫情期以来最低 期权显示汇率还未触底3、美国考虑释放石油储备 以应对乌克兰局势导致的油价飙升4、美国上周住房贷款申请指数大幅下降 因抵押贷款利率上升5、高盛：对冲基金轮替投资配置 大幅削减科技股6、欧洲央行管委称任何货币政策正常化都应循序渐进乌克兰危机难降温 小摩预计二季度油价...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-02-24/doc-imcwiwss2585607.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aeea1aa8fb2b8b9a70757932f549ad5","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4207":"综合性银行",".DJI":"道琼斯","JPM":"摩根大通",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4504":"桥水持仓"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-02-24/doc-imcwiwss2585607.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2213918896","content_text":"全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、乌克兰危机难降温 小摩预计二季度油价或飙升至110美元2、俄罗斯卢布跌至疫情期以来最低 期权显示汇率还未触底3、美国考虑释放石油储备 以应对乌克兰局势导致的油价飙升4、美国上周住房贷款申请指数大幅下降 因抵押贷款利率上升5、高盛：对冲基金轮替投资配置 大幅削减科技股6、欧洲央行管委称任何货币政策正常化都应循序渐进乌克兰危机难降温 小摩预计二季度油价或飙升至110美元摩根大通预计，在乌克兰危机持续升级推动下，第二季平均油价可能上看110美元。包括Natasha Kaneva在内的摩根大通分析师在一份报告中写道，原油价格可能在下一季度持续高企，然后在今年年底回落至平均每桶90美元的水平。该预测假设乌克兰紧张局势进一步升级，同时伊朗核协议达成，得以向市场注入一些供应。布伦特本周涨至离每桶100美元咫尺之遥，还是2014年以来首见。东欧紧张局势给油价煽风点火的同时，交易员还预计，供不应求的局面正在压缩全球石油库存。摩根大通分析师表示，布伦特原油下一季度的均价在每桶110美元，西德克萨斯中质油料为107美元。这一目标比该行先前的预估都高出22美元。俄罗斯卢布跌至疫情期以来最低 期权显示汇率还未触底对于今年已经出现历史性下跌的俄罗斯市场，交易员传达的信息是，未来卢布可能还要继续下行。卢布兑美元周三延续跌势，触及2020年3月疫情开始以来的最低水平。期权定价显示，卢布兑美元在未来两个月内跌至纪录低点的可能性为50%。2016年卢布跌至纪录低位时经济正陷入衰退。技术分析师也持同样观点，认为卢布兑美元的趋势线接近失守。道明证券投资组合策略主管Cristian Maggio表示，“卢布的疲软程度将大于预期”。俄乌局势升级令俄罗斯金融市场受到重创。虽然周二资产价格因为交易员对制裁措施的影响仍存疑而有所反弹，但基准指数徘徊在多年低点附近。卢布和乌克兰格里夫纳都是今年表现垫底的货币，兑美元跌幅超过7%。在股市方面，自10月以来，莫斯科基准的MOEX指数已下跌近三分之一。俄罗斯市场周三因公共假日休市，但RTS股指期货暗示股市周四重新开市时可能会迎来下跌。美国考虑释放石油储备 以应对乌克兰局势导致的油价飙升两位知情人士透露，拜登政府正考虑再次动用战略石油储备，与盟友联手应对乌克兰局势导致的油价飙升。知情人士称，虽然尚未做出决定，但政府内部正在进行“活跃对话”，包括潜在的价格触发点，以及如何与其他国家协调释放石油储备。由于这些政府内部讨论尚未公开，知情人士要求匿名。他们说，正在建模以确定潜在释放储备石油的规模和范围。美国能源部不予置评。白宫以及国家安全委员会未立即回复置评请求。白宫去年11月批准从战略石油储备中释放5000万桶原油，联手印度、日本、韩国等以应对经济从疫情中恢复之际出现的油价飙升。美国上周住房贷款申请指数大幅下降 因抵押贷款利率上升一项美国住房贷款申请指标在上周降至2019年末以来最低水平，表明抵押贷款利率上升正对房地产市场构成更大压力。美国抵押贷款银行协会（MBA）周三公布，截至2月18日一周抵押贷款申请指数下降13.1%至466.4。购买指数下跌逾10%至去年8月中旬以来最低水平。再融资指标上周下降15.6%，达2019年12月以来最弱。30年期固定利率贷款的合约利率上周小幅上升至4.06%，为2019年7月以来最高水平。自2021年末以来，该利率已上升近0.75个百分点。高盛：对冲基金轮替投资配置 大幅削减科技股根据高盛集团的数据，美国对冲基金不断削减科技股的头寸，并且从2022年开始比十多年来任何时候都更倾向于配置便宜的股票。“文件显示，对冲基金根据与过去几年大部分时间不同的股票市场环境而配置部位，”以Ben Snider为首的策略师在给客户的报告中写道。他表示，股票头寸总计达2.6万亿美元的基金已经减持较为昂贵的增长型股票，转向偏好持有能源和金融股。高盛的分析是基于截至2月15日发布的788档对冲基金的“13F报告（揭露美股持仓部位的季度报告）”。分析显示，虽然标准普尔500科技巨头之下包括苹果公司和微软公司在内的所谓“FAAMG”集团仍然是最受欢迎的多头头寸，对冲基金持续将投资组合从增长股转向所谓的价值股。截至12月31日的调整后部位显示，对冲基金更倾向于价值股，且为2011年以来之最，这已经反映在今年的市场走势中。标准普尔500指数周二陷入回调，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数今年下跌15%，原因是因通胀飙升，美联储的态度越来越偏鹰派。欧洲央行管委称任何货币政策正常化都应循序渐进欧洲央行管理委员会成员Pablo Hernandez de Cos表示，任何货币政策正常化都应该是循序渐进的，并且只有在资产净购买结束之后才开始。de Cos表示，预计中期内通胀率不会持续高于2%的目标。兼任西班牙央行行长的de Cos称，不能排除首次加息条件满足时间早于原先预期的可能性。考虑到高度的不确定性，欧洲央行必须灵活并对所有选项持开放心态。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":607,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":638496076,"gmtCreate":1645482831348,"gmtModify":1645482831592,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$XIAOMI-W(01810)$</a>nice","listText":"<a 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nice","listText":"Nice nice","text":"Nice nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809099794","repostId":"2154957883","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171721030,"gmtCreate":1626766599120,"gmtModify":1633771232785,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Keep on going&nbsp;","listText":"Keep on going&nbsp;","text":"Keep on going","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171721030","repostId":"1104187666","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1104187666","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626766177,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1104187666?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-20 15:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Nvidia Stock Bounced Back Like a Superball Monday","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1104187666","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Morningstar has kind words for Nvidia Monday.\n\nWhat happened\nAfter four straight trading days of unm","content":"<blockquote>\n Morningstar has kind words for Nvidia Monday.\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>What happened</b></p>\n<p>After four straight trading days of unmitigated selling, shares of graphics and crypto-miningsemiconductormanufacturer&nbsp;<b>Nvidia</b>(NASDAQ:NVDA)&nbsp;reversed course Monday -- and bounced nearly 5%!</p>\n<p>Of course, those morning gains proved fleeting, but as of 2:15 p.m. EDT, Nvidia stock is still holding onto a respectable 3.3% gain. (And you have to wonder if it might be up even more if the stock market hadn't suddenly gone toheck in a handbasket&nbsp;Monday.)</p>\n<p><b>So what</b></p>\n<p>Investors can send their thank-you notes directly to Morningstar, which was quoted Monday commenting that \"after taking a fresh look at our thesis on Nvidia, we are raising our moat rating to wide from narrow, thanks to intangible assets related to the design of graphics processing units (GPUs).\"</p>\n<p><b>Now what</b></p>\n<p>Coming on the heels of similarly positive notes in recent weeks from investment banks including KeyBanc, BMO Capital Markets,and Mizuho, which have posited price targets of anywhere from $900 to $1,000 for Nvidia stock (which only costs about $750 Monday), it seems there's a consensus forming on Wall Street that the time for selling is over, and the time for buying is here -- and maybe they're right.</p>\n<p>Nvidia's price strength Monday in the face of a broad stock market collapse certainly suggests that investors are tired ofselling Nvidia stock. But all that being said, when I look at Nvidia's valuation Monday -- 85 times trailing earnings, and even 82 times free cash flow -- I cannot help but think that the stock remains richly priced.</p>\n<p>And Wall Street's optimists notwithstanding, I fear Nvidia stock may still have farther to fall.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Nvidia Stock Bounced Back Like a Superball Monday</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Nvidia Stock Bounced Back Like a Superball Monday\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-20 15:29 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/19/why-nvidia-stock-bounced-back-like-a-superball/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Morningstar has kind words for Nvidia Monday.\n\nWhat happened\nAfter four straight trading days of unmitigated selling, shares of graphics and crypto-miningsemiconductormanufacturer Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/19/why-nvidia-stock-bounced-back-like-a-superball/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/19/why-nvidia-stock-bounced-back-like-a-superball/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1104187666","content_text":"Morningstar has kind words for Nvidia Monday.\n\nWhat happened\nAfter four straight trading days of unmitigated selling, shares of graphics and crypto-miningsemiconductormanufacturer Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) reversed course Monday -- and bounced nearly 5%!\nOf course, those morning gains proved fleeting, but as of 2:15 p.m. EDT, Nvidia stock is still holding onto a respectable 3.3% gain. (And you have to wonder if it might be up even more if the stock market hadn't suddenly gone toheck in a handbasket Monday.)\nSo what\nInvestors can send their thank-you notes directly to Morningstar, which was quoted Monday commenting that \"after taking a fresh look at our thesis on Nvidia, we are raising our moat rating to wide from narrow, thanks to intangible assets related to the design of graphics processing units (GPUs).\"\nNow what\nComing on the heels of similarly positive notes in recent weeks from investment banks including KeyBanc, BMO Capital Markets,and Mizuho, which have posited price targets of anywhere from $900 to $1,000 for Nvidia stock (which only costs about $750 Monday), it seems there's a consensus forming on Wall Street that the time for selling is over, and the time for buying is here -- and maybe they're right.\nNvidia's price strength Monday in the face of a broad stock market collapse certainly suggests that investors are tired ofselling Nvidia stock. But all that being said, when I look at Nvidia's valuation Monday -- 85 times trailing earnings, and even 82 times free cash flow -- I cannot help but think that the stock remains richly priced.\nAnd Wall Street's optimists notwithstanding, I fear Nvidia stock may still have farther to fall.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":101,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":633238861,"gmtCreate":1644105106250,"gmtModify":1644105106453,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>nice","listText":"<a 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20:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How to invest as the Delta variant takes hold","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154266565","media":"cnn","summary":"New York When the market is plunging like it did last Friday and on Monday, it's tempting to throw in the towel and sell. Big drops can be scary.But dumping stocks on days when the Dow is getting whacked is usually the wrong thing to do. Stocks roared back Tuesday and were up again Wednesday.If you're investing for the long haul, the best thing you can do is ride out this wave of volatility.\"Stay invested,\" said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. Shah told CNN Business t","content":"<p>New York (CNN Business)When the market is plunging like it did last Friday and on Monday, it's tempting to throw in the towel and sell. Big drops can be scary.</p>\n<p>But dumping stocks on days when the Dow is getting whacked is usually the wrong thing to do. Stocks roared back Tuesday and were up again Wednesday.</p>\n<p>Yes, the Delta variant of Covid-19 has led to an alarming uptick in coronavirus cases in the United States and around the globe. But many experts think the massive number of vaccinations that have already taken place will prevent the economy and markets from going into another tailspin.</p>\n<p>If you're investing for the long haul, the best thing you can do is ride out this wave of volatility.</p>\n<p>\"Stay invested,\" said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. Shah told CNN Business that the Delta variant is highly unlikely to stop the economic recovery in the US and other parts of the developed world where vaccination rates are high.</p>\n<p>\"The vaccine is effective,\" she said. \"If cases are rising but hospitalization rates remain low, then the reopening measures from governments will continue.\"</p>\n<p>Still, Shah conceded, investors should be more selective. After all, the S&amp;P 500 has nearly doubled from its pandemic lows in March 2020, and not all stocks and sectors will maintain their momentum.</p>\n<p>She thinks defensive sectors might start to pull back a bit. Those include utilities, health care and others companies that pay big dividends and are considered good bond proxies.</p>\n<p>The FAANGs and other big tech stocks, many of which have strong earnings momentum and tons of cash, should continue to rally, she said.</p>\n<p><b>Not the time to bail on the market</b></p>\n<p>So should economic recovery plays in the travel and retail sectors that have pulled back lately on Covid concerns. United (UAL), for example, issued an upbeat outlook after the closing bell Tuesday.</p>\n<p>\"Airlines have been beaten up,\" Shah said. \"But if you assume the reopening will continue, they should enjoy a significant bounceback.\"</p>\n<p>Stocks may remain bumpy for the foreseeable future, but that shouldn't dissuade investors from sticking with their longer-term investments.</p>\n<p>\"The uncertainty of the past couple of days is warranted for the short term,\" said Peter van der Welle, multi-asset strategist at Robeco. \"But there should be a second leg to the reflation trade.\"</p>\n<p>Van der Welle noted that there are many reasons to be optimistic about continued gains in consumer spending and retail sales, despite a recent drop in consumer confidence.</p>\n<p><b>Buy the dips</b></p>\n<p>Any wariness on the part of consumers — and investors, for that matter — could turn out to be fleeting.</p>\n<p>\"If you are a long-term investor, take advantage of this volatility and add to positions in companies and sectors you really like,\" said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes.</p>\n<p>He he belives stocks in cyclical industries that have gotten hit because of Delta variant fears could enjoy the biggest rebounds.</p>\n<p>\"There are stocks that have hit an air pocket that could be very attractive. We love the economically sensitive sectors,\" Orlando added, saying that banks and other financials, industrial firms, retailers and energy stocks may come roaring back.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to invest as the Delta variant takes hold</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to invest as the Delta variant takes hold\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-22 20:06 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/21/investing/investing-stock-market-volatility/index.html><strong>cnn</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>New York (CNN Business)When the market is plunging like it did last Friday and on Monday, it's tempting to throw in the towel and sell. Big drops can be scary.\nBut dumping stocks on days when the Dow ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/21/investing/investing-stock-market-volatility/index.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/21/investing/investing-stock-market-volatility/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154266565","content_text":"New York (CNN Business)When the market is plunging like it did last Friday and on Monday, it's tempting to throw in the towel and sell. Big drops can be scary.\nBut dumping stocks on days when the Dow is getting whacked is usually the wrong thing to do. Stocks roared back Tuesday and were up again Wednesday.\nYes, the Delta variant of Covid-19 has led to an alarming uptick in coronavirus cases in the United States and around the globe. But many experts think the massive number of vaccinations that have already taken place will prevent the economy and markets from going into another tailspin.\nIf you're investing for the long haul, the best thing you can do is ride out this wave of volatility.\n\"Stay invested,\" said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors. Shah told CNN Business that the Delta variant is highly unlikely to stop the economic recovery in the US and other parts of the developed world where vaccination rates are high.\n\"The vaccine is effective,\" she said. \"If cases are rising but hospitalization rates remain low, then the reopening measures from governments will continue.\"\nStill, Shah conceded, investors should be more selective. After all, the S&P 500 has nearly doubled from its pandemic lows in March 2020, and not all stocks and sectors will maintain their momentum.\nShe thinks defensive sectors might start to pull back a bit. Those include utilities, health care and others companies that pay big dividends and are considered good bond proxies.\nThe FAANGs and other big tech stocks, many of which have strong earnings momentum and tons of cash, should continue to rally, she said.\nNot the time to bail on the market\nSo should economic recovery plays in the travel and retail sectors that have pulled back lately on Covid concerns. United (UAL), for example, issued an upbeat outlook after the closing bell Tuesday.\n\"Airlines have been beaten up,\" Shah said. \"But if you assume the reopening will continue, they should enjoy a significant bounceback.\"\nStocks may remain bumpy for the foreseeable future, but that shouldn't dissuade investors from sticking with their longer-term investments.\n\"The uncertainty of the past couple of days is warranted for the short term,\" said Peter van der Welle, multi-asset strategist at Robeco. \"But there should be a second leg to the reflation trade.\"\nVan der Welle noted that there are many reasons to be optimistic about continued gains in consumer spending and retail sales, despite a recent drop in consumer confidence.\nBuy the dips\nAny wariness on the part of consumers — and investors, for that matter — could turn out to be fleeting.\n\"If you are a long-term investor, take advantage of this volatility and add to positions in companies and sectors you really like,\" said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Hermes.\nHe he belives stocks in cyclical industries that have gotten hit because of Delta variant fears could enjoy the biggest rebounds.\n\"There are stocks that have hit an air pocket that could be very attractive. We love the economically sensitive sectors,\" Orlando added, saying that banks and other financials, industrial firms, retailers and energy stocks may come roaring back.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176535731,"gmtCreate":1626906407123,"gmtModify":1633769995056,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176535731","repostId":"1160000763","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":162,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171847363,"gmtCreate":1626739518352,"gmtModify":1633924572405,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bad","listText":"Bad","text":"Bad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171847363","repostId":"2152652683","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":137,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":604014701,"gmtCreate":1639280278807,"gmtModify":1639280745206,"author":{"id":"4087517059074990","authorId":"4087517059074990","name":"Vicya","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087517059074990","authorIdStr":"4087517059074990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604014701","repostId":"2190967197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}