满仓当下的个人主页 - 老虎社区

满仓当下

满仓当下

价值、周期、心态

IP属地：上海

72关注

105粉丝

3主题

0勋章

2025-06-13

$ROBIN ENERGY LTD.(RBNE)$ 持股了2年，终于拿到理想收益

2024-10-07

$Toro Corp(TORO)$ 有买了这家股票的吗？一起讨论下，流通盘少就喋喋不休吗

01-10

很难，不破不立，小米企业文化不变，很难站稳山峰，低价是最容易走的路，但也是最难走的路

03-02

$AGQ 20260227 167.0 PUT$ 捞着真难啊，再也不能碰

2025-07-03

$安井食品(02648)$ 开心开心[开心] [开心]

2024-12-13

$TCH.HK 20241213 420.00 CALL$ 惊险的 420 争夺战[流泪] [流泪] [流泪] [流泪] ，短期 call 的策略还是要谨慎谨慎

01-29

乱世黄金，从未有过白银能换东西的 [无语]，穷人黄金这个概念并不存在，穷就是等着被收割

2024-11-22

$TCH.HK 20241122 420.00 CALL$ 投资能力就是定价能力

01-30

大部分人还是太怕了，怕就说明还能涨

2025-07-03

$安井食品(02648)$ 这差价不至于哈😂😂

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 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刻苦铭心","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f076f83351b6064484bf8228072f972","width":"944","height":"1921"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/527411525542400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":527112970224952,"gmtCreate":1769697833750,"gmtModify":1769697836693,"author":{"id":"4087527480839050","authorId":"4087527480839050","name":"满仓当下","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae386d455f3145d932bcef138287ccf7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087527480839050","authorIdStr":"4087527480839050"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"乱世黄金，从未有过白银能换东西的 [无语]，穷人黄金这个概念并不存在，穷就是等着被收割","listText":"乱世黄金，从未有过白银能换东西的 [无语]，穷人黄金这个概念并不存在，穷就是等着被收割","text":"乱世黄金，从未有过白银能换东西的 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21:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>悦享控股宣布收到两份初步非约束性提案，计划收购其所有股份。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CHR":"悦享控股","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187542578","content_text":"悦享控股宣布收到两份初步非约束性提案，计划收购其所有股份。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CHR":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":862,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":507435287929808,"gmtCreate":1764916244549,"gmtModify":1764916246840,"author":{"id":"4087527480839050","authorId":"4087527480839050","name":"满仓当下","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae386d455f3145d932bcef138287ccf7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087527480839050","authorIdStr":"4087527480839050"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"有钱了开始装了，忘了好好服务客户了","listText":"有钱了开始装了，忘了好好服务客户了","text":"有钱了开始装了，忘了好好服务客户了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/507435287929808","repostId":"2588018353","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2588018353","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1764743375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2588018353?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-03 14:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“职场失意”的霸王茶姬，情场得意的张俊杰","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2588018353","media":"向善财经","summary":"在这个背景下，连续11个季度盈利的霸王茶姬，交出了一份孤芳自赏的三季报。有意思的是，虽然霸王别姬“职场失意”，但是创始人情场得意，同样在三季度，创始人张俊杰和天合光能“光二代”高海纯宣布了婚讯。霸王茶姬，会是哪一种？上个月初，瑞幸咖啡的CEO郭瑾一在一场活动中表示，瑞幸咖啡将重启上市计划，目标是霸王茶姬所在的美股市场。","content":"<html><body><article><p>（原标题：“职场失意”的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHA\">霸王茶姬</a>，情场得意的张俊杰）</p><p>文：向善财经</p><p>三季度，外卖大战的烈度达到顶峰，一众新茶饮品牌的GMV趁着这股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600081\">东风</a>猛增。</p><p>在这个背景下，连续11个季度盈利的霸王茶姬，交出了一份孤芳自赏的三季报。</p><p>数据显示，霸王茶姬三季度在中国市场（含中国香港）的GMV为76.292亿元，同比下降6.16%；<span>净利润</span>则下降到4亿，去年同期净利润为6.5亿；净利润率降至12%，去年同期净利润率为 18%。</p><p>有意思的是，虽然霸王别姬“职场失意”，但是创始人情场得意，同样在三季度，创始人张俊杰和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688599\">天合光能</a>“光二代”高海纯宣布了婚讯。</p><p>一边是人生大事，一边是自家公司业绩下跌，对此不少好事的网友调侃：结婚这件事面前众生平等，都要累死累活的全身心投入，这不创始人一说要结婚，业绩就正好开始跌。</p><p>不过开玩笑归开玩笑，我们言归正传，市场主流观点认为，霸王茶姬业绩出现下滑的主要原因，是三季度没有像其他茶饮品牌一样，深度参与外卖大战。</p><p>否则最少在营收增长上，应该和其他品牌是同频的。</p><p>此时的霸王茶姬，看上去颇像上学时班里不合群的大神，他们普遍是两个极端，要么极度的好，要么极度的差。</p><p>霸王茶姬，会是哪一种？</p><p>//拒绝内卷，霸王茶姬要“顶峰”相见</p><p>想得到答案，还得从不参加外卖大战的动机上找。</p><p>根据澎湃新闻报道，在上半年的业绩电话会上，张俊杰表示：面对价格战，霸王茶姬坚持三个原则：坚决不盲目跟风地卷入价格战；坚持高价值品牌战略；通过技术创新和精细化运营提升优化运营效率。</p><p>说白了，张俊杰很像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002071\">长城</a>的魏建军，有自己坚守，想维护霸王茶姬“高品质”的形象。</p><p>这里必须要佩服张俊杰的战略定力，在时代的洪流下能保持冷静，坚守自己的经营节奏和品牌调性，难能可贵。</p><p>只不过，对新茶饮的消费者来说，因为供给端的生意模式高度相似，导致各家产品也高度相似，没有形成类似于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>那样的品牌忠诚度。</p><p>在这种弱品牌心智的市场中，霸王茶姬的高价值品牌战略，似乎没有办法抵挡时代的洪流，就像《三体》中的那句平静的“我消灭你，与你无关”，在中国商业史中，这样的案例也一直在上演着。</p><p>往远了说，打车大战时，洁身自好的易到出行，坚守高端的定位，没有下场卷价格，不参与滴滴与快的为代表的网约车的补贴大战，但不参与补贴，意味着没有流量和订单，在绝对的规模效应、<span>市场占有率</span>面前，易到出行的品质标签如同螳臂挡车，蚍蜉撼树。</p><p>往近了说，在新能源价格战如火如荼的情况，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601633\">长城汽车</a>坚持不参与价格战，创始人魏建军更是为行业吹哨，但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02333\">长城汽车</a>这两年的业绩，也到了吹哨时刻。天眼查APP显示，前三季度，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603897\">长城</a>汽车的净利润同比下滑幅度分别为-17.2%、-10.49%、-45.74%。</p><p>可见，在一个行业趋势的势能足够强的情况下，无论企业出于什么样的动机坚守自己的战略体系，在趋势的变迁面前都是众生平等的。</p><p>当然，也有观点认为，外卖大战持续的时间不会太长，当补贴退潮，霸王茶姬的品牌价值就会体现出来。</p><p>但客观的讲，现在外卖行业肉眼可见的刺刀见红，对局内人来讲只能说下半场刚刚开始。</p><p>首先对于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>来讲，为了守住外卖大战中的成果，稳固刚养成的用户点开闪购的心智，势必会继续补贴，刺激用户更多的打开淘宝。</p><p>其次是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>外卖，现在已经是一个独立的APP了，为了刺激日活，用户下单，茶饮无疑是最好的补贴品。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPNGY\">美团</a>更不用说了，作为守擂方，补贴肯定不能停下来。</p><p>换句话说，外卖大战是长期战役，几方都调动了巨大的资源，用补贴换流量的打法短期内很难熄火。</p><p>更关键的是，对履约效率不足的后来者来讲，新茶饮的产品因为不是正餐，对时效性的要求不强，是性价比最高的“投流”工具，就像电商平台补贴<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>手机，茅台酒一样，奶茶是外卖补贴中的硬通货。</p><p>所以日后针对新茶饮这一类产品的补贴依然会继续，同时，这也意味着，引流的产品是没有自己的定价权的。</p><p>那此时，作为应对，对新茶饮品牌来说，有一款长期无须在乎价格的流量产品就很重要，比如瑞幸的生椰拿铁，蜜雪冰城的柠檬水等等，都是贴着生产成本在卖。</p><p>但同时，这些品牌还有其他不断上新的产品在支撑着利润，就像因为卫生纸打折去逛超市一样，出来可能还得顺手带包湿纸巾、方便面、口香糖之类的东西。</p><p>这就要求，在货架上，品牌方得有足够多，或者足够新颖（好喝）的产品来吸引顾客。</p><p>巧合的是，霸王茶姬走的是大店面，大单品的路线，这也就导致他的SKU少，上新的力度弱。</p><p>此时，倘若对超级单品“伯牙绝弦”做补贴，自己其他的产品相对其他家更新颖的产品而言，会让消费者没有尝鲜的动力，那牺牲价格带来的流量效应也就没有了价值，结局就可能是双输。</p><p>说白了，霸王茶姬的产品结构，一定程度上跟补贴战的思路不匹配，这可能也是霸王茶姬坚守品牌价值战略的真正原因之一。</p><p>不过，老话说得好“失之东隅，收之桑榆”，既然为了保持调性，主动放弃了外卖的流量，那放弃的短期业绩增长，如果能够换来更强的用户黏性也未尝不是一件好事。</p><p>在张俊杰关于用户粘性的的表述中（升级会员体系以提升用户粘性与复购率），会员体系是一个比较重要的观察窗口。</p><p>这方面的数据看上去确实很不错，最新数据显示，小程序注册会员用户数达2.22亿，同比增长36.7%。</p><p>只是，会员究竟价值几何需要打个问号，一方面按小编自己的体验来讲，第一次注册是因为首次注册送有很大的优惠，之后点餐就再也没有用过，依然是用平台验券的方式。</p><p>另一方面，线下的体系中，可能只有像山姆，开市客这样的高SKU，集中购买的付费会员才有观察的意义。</p><p>所以总的来看，第一因为商业模式的原因，没有参加外卖大战，丢掉了GMV的增长，第二又没有显著的财务数据表明，品牌价值战略取得了哪方面的成果。</p><p>客观来讲，在这样的市场环境下，霸王茶姬交出的这份答卷难以让人满意。</p><p>况且，在未来，霸王茶姬依然还会面对外卖大战的冲击，更关键的是，在这种格局下，新的搅局者也在不远处了。</p><p>而这个搅局者的目标，很可能会瞄准霸王茶姬。</p><p>//瑞幸咖啡入局，要“狙击”霸王茶姬？</p><p>上个月初，瑞幸咖啡的CEO郭瑾一在一场活动中表示，瑞幸咖啡将重启上市计划，目标是霸王茶姬所在的美股市场。</p><p>很明显，这个潜在的搅局者就是瑞幸咖啡，他们上市的目标很明确，一方面是继续扩大自己在咖啡市场上的优势，另一方面则是把新茶饮市场定为自己的下一个增长点。</p><p>这么说是因为瑞幸董事长在接受采访时说道：“咖啡市场和奶茶市场不是绝对分割的，而是互相交融的。”、“现制饮品市场其实是个统一的市场，咖啡和奶茶的消费者可能是同一拨消费者。”</p><p>说白了，这二者就像SUV和轿车，用的都是一套供应链和生产方式，一个厂家都能生产出来，只不过功能不同罢了。</p><p>就小编的饮用感受来讲，也是如此，不管是茶饮料还是咖啡饮料，产品都是不同形式的排列组合，只是对牛马来说，咖啡的功能性更强一些。</p><p>可能有人要问，既然是互相交叉的，为什么说瑞幸咖啡的目标，会是霸王茶姬呢？</p><p>细想之下其实很好理解，瑞幸想切入这个赛道，蜜雪冰城和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01364\">古茗</a>那种低价、高SKU的方式一方面会加大经营难度，毕竟瑞幸咖啡的门店大部分都是直营门店；另一方面，则会影响到主营咖啡的调性和品牌心智。</p><p>此时，跟小时候打架一样，最好的打法，就是攥紧拳头找一个大单品打。</p><p>事实上，他们也正是这么做的，比如瑞幸此前推出的“轻轻茉莉”，无论在原料还是口味上，都和霸王茶姬的明星单品“伯牙绝弦”极为相似，但售价却更加便宜，一度被外界称为“9块9的伯牙绝弦”。</p><p>而且今年3月初，瑞幸还宣布新品“鲜萃轻轻茉莉·轻乳茶”中将奶和茶的使用原料升级，变成了0茶粉，100%真茶现泡。从两者的原料配方占比来看，伯牙绝弦分别是茉莉雪芽、牛乳、冰勃朗非氢化基底乳、风味糖浆，鲜萃轻轻茉莉是茉莉花茶、纯牛奶、牛乳饮料、原味糖浆，几乎已经没有了太大的区别。</p><p>在经营方面，瑞幸又是直营店偏多的模式，没有供应商盈利的压力，企业上下没什么包袱，输赢都是上下一条心。</p><p>而瑞幸又一向以门店多著称，覆盖的市场范围无人能出其右，那在未来，如果把推广的重心倾斜向奶茶，霸王茶姬在国内的增长无疑会承压。</p><p>当然，霸王茶姬也不是没有应对，虽然在国内市场，受到竞争对手的挤压和外卖大战的影响业绩表现不佳。</p><p>但在海外市场，霸王茶姬的增长迅猛。</p><p>数据显示，三季度，霸王茶姬海外GMV同比增长75.3%至3亿元人民币，这是其连续第二个季度涨幅超过75%。</p><p>更重要的是，他在不同的市场，输出着中国的茶文化，比如在国际茶日，发布了全球宣传片《CHA》，将东方茶文化，借助“cha”这个词飘至全球。</p><p>另外，在菲律宾新店开业媒体发布会上，通过高级茶叶研究员现场科普茶叶种类和泡茶方式宣传着中国的茶文化。</p><p>最后，希望霸王茶姬在创始人的带领下，在业绩上，也能够像他自己否极泰来的人生一样，让霸王茶姬乘着海外的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600006\">东风</a>成为真正的“东方<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>”。</p><p>免责声明：本文基于公司法定披露内容和已公开的资料信息，展开评论，但作者不保证该信息资料的完整性、及时性。另：股市有风险，入市需谨慎。文章不构成投资建议，投资与否须自行甄别。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“职场失意”的霸王茶姬，情场得意的张俊杰</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“职场失意”的霸王茶姬，情场得意的张俊杰\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-03 14:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251203145401978d4d44&s=b><strong>向善财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>（原标题：“职场失意”的霸王茶姬，情场得意的张俊杰）文：向善财经三季度，外卖大战的烈度达到顶峰，一众新茶饮品牌的GMV趁着这股东风猛增。在这个背景下，连续11个季度盈利的霸王茶姬，交出了一份孤芳自赏的三季报。数据显示，霸王茶姬三季度在中国市场（含中国香港）的GMV为76.292亿元，同比下降6.16%；净利润则下降到4亿，去年同期净利润为6.5亿；净利润率降至12%，去年同期净利润率为 18%。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251203145401978d4d44&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4526":"热门中概股","BK4539":"次新股","BK4610":"咖啡茶饮","LU0348766576.USD":"ALLIANZ LITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0348767384.USD":"ALLIANZLITTLE DRAGONS \"A\" (USD) ACC","CHA":"霸王茶姬"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251203145401978d4d44&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2588018353","content_text":"（原标题：“职场失意”的霸王茶姬，情场得意的张俊杰）文：向善财经三季度，外卖大战的烈度达到顶峰，一众新茶饮品牌的GMV趁着这股东风猛增。在这个背景下，连续11个季度盈利的霸王茶姬，交出了一份孤芳自赏的三季报。数据显示，霸王茶姬三季度在中国市场（含中国香港）的GMV为76.292亿元，同比下降6.16%；净利润则下降到4亿，去年同期净利润为6.5亿；净利润率降至12%，去年同期净利润率为 18%。有意思的是，虽然霸王别姬“职场失意”，但是创始人情场得意，同样在三季度，创始人张俊杰和天合光能“光二代”高海纯宣布了婚讯。一边是人生大事，一边是自家公司业绩下跌，对此不少好事的网友调侃：结婚这件事面前众生平等，都要累死累活的全身心投入，这不创始人一说要结婚，业绩就正好开始跌。不过开玩笑归开玩笑，我们言归正传，市场主流观点认为，霸王茶姬业绩出现下滑的主要原因，是三季度没有像其他茶饮品牌一样，深度参与外卖大战。否则最少在营收增长上，应该和其他品牌是同频的。此时的霸王茶姬，看上去颇像上学时班里不合群的大神，他们普遍是两个极端，要么极度的好，要么极度的差。霸王茶姬，会是哪一种？//拒绝内卷，霸王茶姬要“顶峰”相见想得到答案，还得从不参加外卖大战的动机上找。根据澎湃新闻报道，在上半年的业绩电话会上，张俊杰表示：面对价格战，霸王茶姬坚持三个原则：坚决不盲目跟风地卷入价格战；坚持高价值品牌战略；通过技术创新和精细化运营提升优化运营效率。说白了，张俊杰很像长城的魏建军，有自己坚守，想维护霸王茶姬“高品质”的形象。这里必须要佩服张俊杰的战略定力，在时代的洪流下能保持冷静，坚守自己的经营节奏和品牌调性，难能可贵。只不过，对新茶饮的消费者来说，因为供给端的生意模式高度相似，导致各家产品也高度相似，没有形成类似于可口可乐那样的品牌忠诚度。在这种弱品牌心智的市场中，霸王茶姬的高价值品牌战略，似乎没有办法抵挡时代的洪流，就像《三体》中的那句平静的“我消灭你，与你无关”，在中国商业史中，这样的案例也一直在上演着。往远了说，打车大战时，洁身自好的易到出行，坚守高端的定位，没有下场卷价格，不参与滴滴与快的为代表的网约车的补贴大战，但不参与补贴，意味着没有流量和订单，在绝对的规模效应、市场占有率面前，易到出行的品质标签如同螳臂挡车，蚍蜉撼树。往近了说，在新能源价格战如火如荼的情况，长城汽车坚持不参与价格战，创始人魏建军更是为行业吹哨，但长城汽车这两年的业绩，也到了吹哨时刻。天眼查APP显示，前三季度，长城汽车的净利润同比下滑幅度分别为-17.2%、-10.49%、-45.74%。可见，在一个行业趋势的势能足够强的情况下，无论企业出于什么样的动机坚守自己的战略体系，在趋势的变迁面前都是众生平等的。当然，也有观点认为，外卖大战持续的时间不会太长，当补贴退潮，霸王茶姬的品牌价值就会体现出来。但客观的讲，现在外卖行业肉眼可见的刺刀见红，对局内人来讲只能说下半场刚刚开始。首先对于阿里来讲，为了守住外卖大战中的成果，稳固刚养成的用户点开闪购的心智，势必会继续补贴，刺激用户更多的打开淘宝。其次是京东外卖，现在已经是一个独立的APP了，为了刺激日活，用户下单，茶饮无疑是最好的补贴品。美团更不用说了，作为守擂方，补贴肯定不能停下来。换句话说，外卖大战是长期战役，几方都调动了巨大的资源，用补贴换流量的打法短期内很难熄火。更关键的是，对履约效率不足的后来者来讲，新茶饮的产品因为不是正餐，对时效性的要求不强，是性价比最高的“投流”工具，就像电商平台补贴苹果手机，茅台酒一样，奶茶是外卖补贴中的硬通货。所以日后针对新茶饮这一类产品的补贴依然会继续，同时，这也意味着，引流的产品是没有自己的定价权的。那此时，作为应对，对新茶饮品牌来说，有一款长期无须在乎价格的流量产品就很重要，比如瑞幸的生椰拿铁，蜜雪冰城的柠檬水等等，都是贴着生产成本在卖。但同时，这些品牌还有其他不断上新的产品在支撑着利润，就像因为卫生纸打折去逛超市一样，出来可能还得顺手带包湿纸巾、方便面、口香糖之类的东西。这就要求，在货架上，品牌方得有足够多，或者足够新颖（好喝）的产品来吸引顾客。巧合的是，霸王茶姬走的是大店面，大单品的路线，这也就导致他的SKU少，上新的力度弱。此时，倘若对超级单品“伯牙绝弦”做补贴，自己其他的产品相对其他家更新颖的产品而言，会让消费者没有尝鲜的动力，那牺牲价格带来的流量效应也就没有了价值，结局就可能是双输。说白了，霸王茶姬的产品结构，一定程度上跟补贴战的思路不匹配，这可能也是霸王茶姬坚守品牌价值战略的真正原因之一。不过，老话说得好“失之东隅，收之桑榆”，既然为了保持调性，主动放弃了外卖的流量，那放弃的短期业绩增长，如果能够换来更强的用户黏性也未尝不是一件好事。在张俊杰关于用户粘性的的表述中（升级会员体系以提升用户粘性与复购率），会员体系是一个比较重要的观察窗口。这方面的数据看上去确实很不错，最新数据显示，小程序注册会员用户数达2.22亿，同比增长36.7%。只是，会员究竟价值几何需要打个问号，一方面按小编自己的体验来讲，第一次注册是因为首次注册送有很大的优惠，之后点餐就再也没有用过，依然是用平台验券的方式。另一方面，线下的体系中，可能只有像山姆，开市客这样的高SKU，集中购买的付费会员才有观察的意义。所以总的来看，第一因为商业模式的原因，没有参加外卖大战，丢掉了GMV的增长，第二又没有显著的财务数据表明，品牌价值战略取得了哪方面的成果。客观来讲，在这样的市场环境下，霸王茶姬交出的这份答卷难以让人满意。况且，在未来，霸王茶姬依然还会面对外卖大战的冲击，更关键的是，在这种格局下，新的搅局者也在不远处了。而这个搅局者的目标，很可能会瞄准霸王茶姬。//瑞幸咖啡入局，要“狙击”霸王茶姬？上个月初，瑞幸咖啡的CEO郭瑾一在一场活动中表示，瑞幸咖啡将重启上市计划，目标是霸王茶姬所在的美股市场。很明显，这个潜在的搅局者就是瑞幸咖啡，他们上市的目标很明确，一方面是继续扩大自己在咖啡市场上的优势，另一方面则是把新茶饮市场定为自己的下一个增长点。这么说是因为瑞幸董事长在接受采访时说道：“咖啡市场和奶茶市场不是绝对分割的，而是互相交融的。”、“现制饮品市场其实是个统一的市场，咖啡和奶茶的消费者可能是同一拨消费者。”说白了，这二者就像SUV和轿车，用的都是一套供应链和生产方式，一个厂家都能生产出来，只不过功能不同罢了。就小编的饮用感受来讲，也是如此，不管是茶饮料还是咖啡饮料，产品都是不同形式的排列组合，只是对牛马来说，咖啡的功能性更强一些。可能有人要问，既然是互相交叉的，为什么说瑞幸咖啡的目标，会是霸王茶姬呢？细想之下其实很好理解，瑞幸想切入这个赛道，蜜雪冰城和古茗那种低价、高SKU的方式一方面会加大经营难度，毕竟瑞幸咖啡的门店大部分都是直营门店；另一方面，则会影响到主营咖啡的调性和品牌心智。此时，跟小时候打架一样，最好的打法，就是攥紧拳头找一个大单品打。事实上，他们也正是这么做的，比如瑞幸此前推出的“轻轻茉莉”，无论在原料还是口味上，都和霸王茶姬的明星单品“伯牙绝弦”极为相似，但售价却更加便宜，一度被外界称为“9块9的伯牙绝弦”。而且今年3月初，瑞幸还宣布新品“鲜萃轻轻茉莉·轻乳茶”中将奶和茶的使用原料升级，变成了0茶粉，100%真茶现泡。从两者的原料配方占比来看，伯牙绝弦分别是茉莉雪芽、牛乳、冰勃朗非氢化基底乳、风味糖浆，鲜萃轻轻茉莉是茉莉花茶、纯牛奶、牛乳饮料、原味糖浆，几乎已经没有了太大的区别。在经营方面，瑞幸又是直营店偏多的模式，没有供应商盈利的压力，企业上下没什么包袱，输赢都是上下一条心。而瑞幸又一向以门店多著称，覆盖的市场范围无人能出其右，那在未来，如果把推广的重心倾斜向奶茶，霸王茶姬在国内的增长无疑会承压。当然，霸王茶姬也不是没有应对，虽然在国内市场，受到竞争对手的挤压和外卖大战的影响业绩表现不佳。但在海外市场，霸王茶姬的增长迅猛。数据显示，三季度，霸王茶姬海外GMV同比增长75.3%至3亿元人民币，这是其连续第二个季度涨幅超过75%。更重要的是，他在不同的市场，输出着中国的茶文化，比如在国际茶日，发布了全球宣传片《CHA》，将东方茶文化，借助“cha”这个词飘至全球。另外，在菲律宾新店开业媒体发布会上，通过高级茶叶研究员现场科普茶叶种类和泡茶方式宣传着中国的茶文化。最后，希望霸王茶姬在创始人的带领下，在业绩上，也能够像他自己否极泰来的人生一样，让霸王茶姬乘着海外的东风成为真正的“东方星巴克”。免责声明：本文基于公司法定披露内容和已公开的资料信息，展开评论，但作者不保证该信息资料的完整性、及时性。另：股市有风险，入市需谨慎。文章不构成投资建议，投资与否须自行甄别。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CHA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":506490685915160,"gmtCreate":1764638255155,"gmtModify":1764638257299,"author":{"id":"4087527480839050","authorId":"4087527480839050","name":"满仓当下","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae386d455f3145d932bcef138287ccf7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087527480839050","authorIdStr":"4087527480839050"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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