crystaly的个人主页 - 老虎社区

crystaly

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2021-11-21

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Why Ford Is Terminating Its Joint EV Development Plan With Rivian?<blockquote>为什么福特终止与Rivian的联合电动汽车开发计划？</blockquote>

2021-10-09

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S&P 500 ends lower after U.S. September jobs miss<blockquote>美国9月份就业机会未达预期，标普500收低</blockquote>

2021-08-10

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2021-07-31

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2022-01-06

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2021-11-02

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Crypto stocks rose in premarket trading<blockquote>加密货币股票在盘前交易中上涨</blockquote>

2021-10-01

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Stocks rebound to start October on Merck’s promising oral Covid pill<blockquote>默克公司推出前景光明的口服新冠药物，股市将于10月初反弹</blockquote>

2021-12-04

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2021-09-12

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2021-07-18

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pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/632733788","repostId":"2217762442","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2217762442","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1646694349,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2217762442?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-08 07:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall St Slides as Oil Prices Surge, Nasdaq Confirms Bear Market<blockquote>油价飙升，华尔街下滑，纳斯达克确认熊市</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2217762442","media":"The Straits Times","summary":"Wall Street's main indexes fell sharply on Monday (March 7), with the Nasdaq Composite confirming it","content":"<p><div> Wall Street's main indexes fell sharply on Monday (March 7), with the Nasdaq Composite confirming it was in a bear market, as the prospect of a ban on oil imports from Russia sent crude prices soaring...</p><p><blockquote><div>华尔街主要指数周一（3月7日）大幅下跌，纳斯达克综合指数确认处于熊市，因禁止从俄进口石油的前景导致原油价格飙升……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/wall-st-slides-as-oil-prices-surge-nasdaq-confirms-bear-market\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/wall-st-slides-as-oil-prices-surge-nasdaq-confirms-bear-market\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"straits_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall St Slides as Oil Prices Surge, Nasdaq Confirms Bear Market<blockquote>油价飙升，华尔街下滑，纳斯达克确认熊市</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall St Slides as Oil Prices Surge, Nasdaq Confirms Bear Market<blockquote>油价飙升，华尔街下滑，纳斯达克确认熊市</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Straits Times</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-03-08 07:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Wall Street's main indexes fell sharply on Monday (March 7), with the Nasdaq Composite confirming it was in a bear market, as the prospect of a ban on oil imports from Russia sent crude prices soaring...</p><p><blockquote><div>华尔街主要指数周一（3月7日）大幅下跌，纳斯达克综合指数确认处于熊市，因禁止从俄进口石油的前景导致原油价格飙升……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/wall-st-slides-as-oil-prices-surge-nasdaq-confirms-bear-market\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/wall-st-slides-as-oil-prices-surge-nasdaq-confirms-bear-market\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/wall-st-slides-as-oil-prices-surge-nasdaq-confirms-bear-market\">The Straits Times</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/wall-st-slides-as-oil-prices-surge-nasdaq-confirms-bear-market","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2217762442","content_text":"Wall Street's main indexes fell sharply on Monday (March 7), with the Nasdaq Composite confirming it was in a bear market, as the prospect of a ban on oil imports from Russia sent crude prices soaring and fueled concerns about rising inflation.Nasdaq ended down 20.1 percent from its Nov 19 record high close, confirming the tech-heavy index has been in a bear market since hitting that record high, according to a widely used definition.That marks Nasdaq's first bear market since 2020, when the coronavirus outbreak crushed global economies.The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended down 10.8 percent from its Jan. 4 closing record high, confirming it was in a correction. A correction is confirmed when an index closes 10 percent or more below its record closing level.Oil prices jumped to their highest levels since 2008 as the United States and European allies considered banning Russian oil imports, in response to the country's invasion of Ukraine, while it looked less likely that Iranian crude would return swiftly to global markets.Russia calls the campaign a \"special operation\".Energy shares, the standout S&P 500 group so far this year, was one of the only sectors logging a gain on Monday.\"That concern on oil has led to concerns on higher inflation and potential for stagflation,\" said Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones. \"I think there is just a broader concern that there may be a hit to growth from the consumer given higher prices at the pump.\"The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 797.42 points, or 2.37 percent, to 32,817.38, the S&P 500 lost 127.79 points, or 2.95 percent, to 4,201.08 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 482.48 points, or 3.62 percent, to 12,830.96.Amazon, Microsoft and Apple were among the top individual drags on the S&P 500 while the financials sector fell 3.7 percent. The utilities sector , one of the defensive areas of the stock market, gained 1.3 percent.Ukrainian officials said a bread factory had been hit by a Russian air strike as the country's negotiators assembled for talks with Russian officials after previous rounds that brought no respite in the conflict.Steep declines in shares of United Airlines Holdings Inc and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings were among a broad downswing in travel and leisure stocks as the jump in oil prices threatened to disrupt a nascent recovery.Stocks have struggled to start 2022 as concerns about the Russia-Ukraine crisis have deepened a sell-off initially fueled by worries over higher bond yields as the Federal Reserve is expected to tighten monetary policy this year to fight inflation.More On This TopicOil prices spike to US$139 as chance of Russian ban spurs crisis fearsUS, Europe edge towards ban on Russian oil imports\"The market was already nervous about a Fed rate hike cycle,\" said Burns McKinney, portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group.\"Now when you layer on higher energy prices on top of that... that has the investment community increasingly concerned that we may end up quickly moving toward the late stages of the market cycle.\"Investors are waiting for a US consumer prices report on Thursday, with the Fed widely expected to hike rates later this month to combat surging inflation.Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 3.62-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.74-to-1 ratio favoured decliners.The S&P 500 posted 50 new 52-week highs and 69 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 63 new highs and 546 new 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market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1645926503,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1125580913?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-27 09:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buffett Full Annual Letter：Apple is One of ‘Four Giants’ Driving the Conglomerate’s Value<blockquote>巴菲特完整年度信：苹果是推动巴菲特价值的“四大巨头”之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125580913","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Warren Buffett released his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders on Saturday. The 91-yea","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Warren Buffett released his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders on Saturday. The 91-year-old investing legend has been publishing the letter for over six decades and it has become required reading for investors around the world.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>沃伦·巴菲特周六发布了致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东的年度信。这位91岁的投资传奇人物已经出版这封信60多年了，它已成为世界各地投资者的必读书目。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Warren Buffett said he now considers tech giant Apple as one of the four pillars driving Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate of mostly old-economy businesses he’s assembled over the last five decades.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特表示，他现在认为科技巨头苹果是推动伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的四大支柱之一，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司是沃伦·巴菲特在过去50年里组建的主要由旧经济企业组成的企业集团。</blockquote></p><p>In his annual letter to shareholders released on Saturday, the 91-year-old investing legend listed Apple under the heading “Our Four Giants” and even called the company the second-most important after Berkshire’s cluster of insurers, thanks to its chief executive.</p><p><blockquote>在周六发布的致股东的年度信中，这位91岁的投资传奇人物将苹果列为“我们的四大巨头”，甚至称该公司是仅次于伯克希尔保险集团的第二大保险公司，这要归功于伯克希尔的首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p>“Tim Cook, Apple’s brilliant CEO, quite properly regards users of Apple products as his first love, but all of his other constituencies benefit from Tim’s managerial touch as well,” the letter stated.</p><p><blockquote>信中写道：“苹果才华横溢的首席执行官蒂姆·库克非常恰当地将苹果产品的用户视为他的初恋，但他的所有其他支持者也受益于蒂姆的管理风格。”</blockquote></p><p>Buffett made clear he is a fan of Cook’s stock repurchase strategy, and how it gives the conglomerate increased ownership of each dollar of the iPhone maker’s earnings without the investor having to lift a finger.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特明确表示，他是库克股票回购策略的粉丝，以及该策略如何让该集团增加对这家iPhone制造商每一美元收益的所有权，而投资者无需动一根手指。</blockquote></p><p>“Apple – our runner-up Giant as measured by its yearend market value – is a different sort of holding. Here, our ownership is a mere 5.55%, up from 5.39% a year earlier,” Buffett said in the letter. “That increase sounds like small potatoes. But consider that each 0.1% of Apple’s 2021 earnings amounted to $100 million. We spent no Berkshire funds to gain our accretion. Apple’s repurchases did the job.”</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在信中表示：“以年终市值衡量，苹果是我们的第二大巨头。在这里，我们的持股比例仅为5.55%，高于一年前的5.39%。”“这一增长听起来像是小巫见大巫。但考虑到苹果2021年盈利的0.1%相当于1亿美元。我们没有花费伯克希尔的资金来获得增长。苹果的回购完成了这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire began buying Apple stock in 2016 under the influence of Buffett’s investing deputies Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. By mid-2018, the conglomerate accumulated 5% ownership of the iPhone maker, a stake that cost $36 billion. Today, the Apple investment is now worth more than $160 billion, taking up 40% of Berkshire’s equity portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>在巴菲特投资副手Todd Combs和Ted Weschler的影响下，Berkshire于2016年开始买入苹果股票。到2018年中期，该集团积累了这家iPhone制造商5%的股份，价值360亿美元。如今，苹果的投资价值超过1600亿美元，占伯克希尔股票投资组合的40%。</blockquote></p><p>“It’s important to understand that only dividends from Apple are counted in the GAAP earnings Berkshire reports – and last year, Apple paid us $785 million of those. Yet our ‘share’ of Apple’s earnings amounted to a staggering $5.6 billion. Much of what the company retained was used to repurchase Apple shares, an act we applaud,” Buffett said.</p><p><blockquote>“重要的是要明白，只有苹果的股息才会计入伯克希尔的GAAP收益报告中——去年，苹果支付了其中的7.85亿美元。然而，我们在苹果收益中的‘份额’达到了惊人的56亿美元。公司保留的大部分资金用于回购苹果股票，我们对此表示赞赏。”</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire is Apple’s largest shareholder, outside of index and exchange-traded fund providers.</p><p><blockquote>除了指数和交易所交易基金提供商之外，Berkshire是苹果最大的股东。</blockquote></p><p>Buffett also credited his railroad business BNSF and energy segment BHE as two other giants of the conglomerate, which both registered record earnings in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特还将他的铁路业务BNSF和能源部门BHE视为该集团的另外两家巨头，这两家公司在2021年的盈利均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p>“BNSF, our third Giant, continues to be the number one artery of American commerce, which makes it an indispensable asset for America as well as for Berkshire,” Buffett said. “BHE has become a utility powerhouse and a leading force in wind, solar and transmission throughout much of the United States.”</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特表示：“我们的第三大巨头BNSF仍然是美国商业的第一大动脉，这使其成为美国和伯克希尔不可或缺的资产。”“BHE已成为美国大部分地区的公用事业巨头以及风能、太阳能和输电领域的主导力量。”</blockquote></p><p><b>Read the full letter here：</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在这里阅读完整的信：</b></blockquote></p><p>To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:</p><p><blockquote>致伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股东：</blockquote></p><p>Charlie Munger, my long-time partner, and I have the job of managing a portion of your savings. We are honored by your trust.</p><p><blockquote>我的长期合伙人查理·芒格和我的工作是管理你的一部分储蓄。我们很荣幸得到你的信任。</blockquote></p><p>Our position carries with it the responsibility to report to you what we would like to know if we were the absentee owner and you were the manager. We enjoy communicating directly with you through this annual letter, and through the annual meeting as well.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们是缺席的所有者，而您是经理，我们的职位有责任向您报告我们想知道的信息。我们喜欢通过这封年度信函和年会直接与您交流。</blockquote></p><p>Our policy is to treat all shareholders equally. Therefore, we do not hold discussions with analysts nor large institutions. Whenever possible, also, we release important communications on Saturday mornings in order to maximize the time for shareholders and the media to absorb the news before markets open on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>我们的政策是平等对待所有股东。因此，我们不与分析师或大型机构进行讨论。此外，只要有可能，我们会在周六上午发布重要信息，以便最大限度地让股东和媒体在周一开市前有时间了解新闻。</blockquote></p><p>A wealth of Berkshire facts and figures are set forth in the annual 10-K that the company regularly files with the S.E.C. and that we reproduce on pages K-1 – K-119. Some shareholders will find this detail engrossing; others will simply prefer to learn what Charlie and I believe is new or interesting at Berkshire.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔定期向美国证券交易委员会提交的年度10-K报告中列出了大量事实和数据。我们在K-1-K-119页复制了这一点。一些股东会发现这个细节引人入胜；其他人则更愿意了解查理和我认为伯克希尔的新事物或有趣之处。</blockquote></p><p>Alas, there was little action of that sort in 2021. We did, though, make reasonable progress in increasing the intrinsic value of your shares. That task has been my primary duty for 57 years. And it will continue to be.</p><p><blockquote>唉，2021年几乎没有这样的行动。不过，我们在增加您股票的内在价值方面确实取得了合理的进展。57年来，这项任务一直是我的主要职责。并将继续如此。</blockquote></p><p><b>What You Own</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你拥有什么</b></blockquote></p><p>Berkshire owns a wide variety of businesses, some in their entirety, some only in part. The second group largely consists of marketable common stocks of major American companies. Additionally, we own a few non-U.S. equities and participate in several joint ventures or other collaborative activities.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔拥有各种各样的业务，有些是全部，有些只是部分。第二组主要由美国大公司的有价证券普通股组成。此外，我们拥有一些非美国股票，并参与多家合资企业或其他合作活动。</blockquote></p><p>Whatever our form of ownership, our goal is to have meaningful investments in businesses with both durable economic advantages and a first-class CEO. Please note particularly that we own stocks based upon our expectations about their long-term business performance and not because we view them as vehicles for timely market moves. That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.</p><p><blockquote>无论我们的所有权形式如何，我们的目标都是对既有持久经济优势又有一流首席执行官的企业进行有意义的投资。请特别注意，我们持有股票是基于我们对其长期业务表现的预期，而不是因为我们将它们视为及时市场波动的工具。这一点至关重要：查理和我不是选股者；我们是挑选生意的人。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>I make many mistakes. Consequently, our extensive collection of businesses includes some enterprises that have truly extraordinary economics, many others that enjoy good economic characteristics, and a few that are marginal. One advantage of our common-stock segment is that – on occasion – it becomes easy to buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices. That shooting-fish-in-a-barrel experience is very rare in negotiated transactions and never occurs en masse. It is also far easier to exit from a mistake when it has been made in the marketable arena.</p><p><blockquote>我犯了很多错误。因此，我们广泛收集的企业包括一些具有真正非凡经济效益的企业，许多其他享有良好经济特征的企业，以及少数边缘企业。我们普通股部门的一个优势是——有时——以优惠的价格购买精彩的业务变得很容易。这种在谈判交易中射鱼的经历非常罕见，而且永远不会集体发生。当错误发生在市场舞台上时，从错误中退出也要容易得多。</blockquote></p><p><h2><b>Surprise, Surprise</b></h2>Here are a few items about your company that often surprise even seasoned investors:</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>惊喜，惊喜</b></h2>以下是有关贵公司的一些事项，即使是经验丰富的投资者也常常感到惊讶：</blockquote></p><p>• Many people perceive Berkshire as a large and somewhat strange collection of financial assets. In truth, Berkshire owns and operates more U.S.-based “infrastructure” assets – classified on our balance sheet as property, plant and equipment – than are owned and operated by any other American corporation. That supremacy has never been our goal. It has, however, become a fact.</p><p><blockquote>•许多人认为伯克希尔是一个庞大而有些奇怪的金融资产集合体。事实上，伯克希尔拥有和经营的美国“基础设施”资产（在我们的资产负债表上归类为财产、厂房和设备）比任何其他美国公司拥有和经营的都多。这种霸权从来都不是我们的目标。然而，这已经成为事实。</blockquote></p><p>At yearend, those domestic infrastructure assets were carried on Berkshire’s balance sheet at $158 billion. That number increased last year and will continue to increase. Berkshire always will be building.</p><p><blockquote>截至年底，这些国内基础设施资产在伯克希尔资产负债表上的价值为1580亿美元。这一数字去年有所增加，并将继续增加。伯克希尔将永远在建设。</blockquote></p><p>• Every year, your company makes substantial federal income tax payments. In 2021, for example, we paid</p><p><blockquote>•您的公司每年都要缴纳大量的联邦所得税。例如，在2021年，我们支付了</blockquote></p><p>$3.3 billion while the U.S. Treasury reported total corporate income-tax receipts of $402 billion. Additionally, Berkshire pays substantial state and foreign taxes. “I gave at the office” is an unassailable assertion when made by Berkshire shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>33亿美元，而美国财政部报告的企业所得税总收入为4020亿美元。此外，伯克希尔还缴纳大量的州税和外国税。“我在办公室给了”是伯克希尔股东不容置疑的断言。</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire’s history vividly illustrates the invisible and often unrecognized financial partnership between  government and American businesses. Our tale begins early in 1955, when Berkshire Fine Spinning and Hathaway Manufacturing agreed to merge their businesses. In their requests for shareholder approval, these venerable New England textile companies expressed high hopes for the combination.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔的历史生动地说明了政府和美国企业之间看不见的、往往不被认可的金融伙伴关系。我们的故事始于1955年初，当时伯克希尔精细纺纱公司和哈撒韦制造公司同意合并他们的业务。在请求股东批准的请求中，这些历史悠久的新英格兰纺织公司对合并寄予厚望。</blockquote></p><p>The Hathaway solicitation, for example, assured its shareholders that “The combination of the resources and managements will result in one of the strongest and most efficient organizations in the textile industry.” That upbeat view was endorsed by the company’s advisor, Lehman Brothers (yes, that Lehman Brothers).</p><p><blockquote>例如，哈撒韦公司的招标向其股东保证，“资源和管理的结合将产生纺织行业最强大、最高效的组织之一。”这种乐观的观点得到了该公司顾问雷曼兄弟（是的，就是雷曼兄弟）的认可。</blockquote></p><p>I’m sure it was a joyous day in both Fall River (Berkshire) and New Bedford (Hathaway) when the union was consummated. After the bands stopped playing and the bankers went home, however, the shareholders reaped a disaster.</p><p><blockquote>我敢肯定，当联盟完成时，福尔里弗（伯克郡）和新贝德福德（哈撒韦）都是欢乐的一天。然而，在乐队停止演奏、银行家们回家后，股东们却收获了一场灾难。</blockquote></p><p>In the nine years following the merger, Berkshire’s owners watched the company’s net worth crater from</p><p><blockquote>在合并后的九年里，伯克希尔的所有者眼睁睁地看着公司的净资产从</blockquote></p><p>$51.4 million to $22.1 million. In part, this decline was caused by stock repurchases, ill-advised dividends and plant shutdowns. But nine years of effort by many thousands of employees delivered an operating loss as well. Berkshire’s struggles were not unusual: The New England textile industry had silently entered an extended and non-reversible death march.</p><p><blockquote>5140万美元至2210万美元。这种下降在一定程度上是由股票回购、不明智的股息和工厂关闭造成的。但数千名员工九年的努力也带来了运营亏损。伯克希尔的挣扎并不罕见：新英格兰纺织业已经悄然进入了漫长且不可逆转的死亡行军。</blockquote></p><p>During the nine post-merger years, the U.S. Treasury suffered as well from Berkshire’s troubles. All told, the company paid the government only $337,359 in income tax during that period – a pathetic $100 per day.</p><p><blockquote>在合并后的九年里，美国财政部也遭受了伯克希尔的麻烦。在此期间，该公司总共只向政府缴纳了337,359美元的所得税——每天只有可怜的100美元。</blockquote></p><p>Early in 1965, things changed. Berkshire installed new management that redeployed available cash and steered essentially all earnings into a variety of good businesses, most of which remained good through the years. Coupling reinvestment of earnings with the power of compounding worked its magic, and shareholders prospered.</p><p><blockquote>1965年初，情况发生了变化。伯克希尔任命了新的管理层，重新部署了可用现金，并将基本上所有收益转移到各种良好的业务中，其中大多数业务多年来一直保持良好状态。将收益再投资与复利的力量结合起来发挥了它的魔力，股东们也因此繁荣起来。</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire’s owners, it should be noted, were not the only beneficiary of that course correction. Their “silent partner,” the U.S. Treasury, proceeded to collect many tens of billions of dollars from the company in income tax payments. Remember the $100 daily? Now, Berkshire pays roughly $9 million daily to the Treasury.</p><p><blockquote>应该指出的是，伯克希尔的所有者并不是这一路线调整的唯一受益者。他们的“沉默伙伴”，美国财政部，继续从该公司收取数百亿美元的所得税。还记得每天100美元吗？现在，伯克希尔每天向财政部支付大约900万美元。</blockquote></p><p>In fairness to our governmental partner, our shareholders should acknowledge – indeed trumpet – the fact that Berkshire’s prosperity has been fostered mightily because the company has operated in America. Our country would have done splendidly in the years since 1965 without Berkshire. Absent our American home, however, Berkshire would never have come close to becoming what it is today. When you see the flag, say thanks.</p><p><blockquote>为我们的政府合作伙伴说句公道话，我们的股东应该承认——事实上是鼓吹——这样一个事实：伯克希尔的繁荣得到了极大的促进，因为该公司在美国运营。如果没有伯克希尔，我们的国家在1965年以来的几年里会做得非常出色。然而，如果没有我们的美国家园，伯克希尔永远不会成为今天的样子。当你看到旗子时，说声谢谢。</blockquote></p><p>• From an $8.6 million purchase of National Indemnity in 1967, Berkshire has become the world leader in insurance “float” – money we hold and can invest but that does not belong to us. Including a relatively small sum derived from life insurance, Berkshire’s total float has grown from $19 million when we entered the insurance business to $147 billion.</p><p><blockquote>1967年，伯克希尔斥资860万美元收购了美国国家赔偿公司（National Indemnity），如今已成为保险“浮动”（float）领域的全球领导者——我们持有并可以投资但不属于我们的资金。包括来自人寿保险的相对较小的金额在内，伯克希尔的总流通量已从我们进入保险业务时的1900万美元增长到1470亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>So far, this float has cost us less than nothing. Though we have experienced a number of years when insurance losses combined with operating expenses exceeded premiums, overall we have earned a modest 55-year profit from the underwriting activities that generated our float.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，这辆彩车让我们付出了不到一分钱的代价。尽管我们经历了多年保险损失加上运营费用超过保费的情况，但总体而言，我们从产生流通量的承保活动中获得了55年的适度利润。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Of equal importance, float is very sticky. Funds attributable to our insurance operations come and go daily, but their aggregate total is immune from precipitous decline. When it comes to investing float, we can therefore think long-term.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是，浮子非常粘。归属于我们保险业务的资金每天来来去去，但其总额不会急剧下降。因此，在投资流通量时，我们可以从长计议。</blockquote></p><p>If you are not already familiar with the concept of float, I refer you to a long explanation on page A-5. To my surprise, our float increased $9 billion last year, a buildup of value that is important to Berkshire owners though is not reflected in our GAAP (“generally-accepted accounting principles”) presentation of earnings and net worth.</p><p><blockquote>如果你还不熟悉浮点的概念，我建议你参考A-5页的长篇解释。令我惊讶的是，我们的流通量去年增加了90亿美元，这一价值的积累对伯克希尔所有者来说很重要，但并未反映在我们的GAAP（“公认会计原则”）收益和净值列报中。</blockquote></p><p>Much of our huge value creation in insurance is attributable to Berkshire’s good luck in my 1986 hiring of Ajit Jain. We first met on a Saturday morning, and I quickly asked Ajit what his insurance experience had been. He replied, “None.”</p><p><blockquote>我们在保险业创造的巨大价值很大程度上要归功于伯克希尔的好运，我在1986年聘请了阿吉特·贾恩。我们第一次见面是在一个周六的早上，我很快问阿吉特他的保险经历是什么。他回答说：“没有。”</blockquote></p><p>I said, “Nobody’s perfect,” and hired him. That was my lucky day: Ajit actually was as perfect a choice as could have been made. Better yet, he continues to be – 35 years later.</p><p><blockquote>我说，“人无完人”，就雇了他。那是我的幸运日：阿吉特实际上是一个完美的选择。更好的是，35年后，他仍然是。</blockquote></p><p>One final thought about insurance: I believe that it is likely – but far from assured – that Berkshire’s float can be maintained without our incurring a long-term underwriting loss. I am certain, however, that there will be some years when we experience such losses, perhaps involving very large sums.</p><p><blockquote>关于保险的最后一个想法：我相信伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的流通股很可能——但远不能确定——能够在不遭受长期承保损失的情况下维持下去。然而，我确信，我们将在未来几年经历这种损失，可能涉及非常大的金额。</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire is constructed to handle catastrophic events as no other insurer – and that priority will remain long after Charlie and I are gone.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔在处理灾难性事件方面的能力与其他保险公司不同——在查理和我离开后很长一段时间内，这一优先事项仍将继续存在。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Our Four Giants</h2>Through Berkshire, our shareholders own many dozens of businesses. Some of these, in turn, have a collection of subsidiaries of their own. For example, Marmon has more than 100 individual business operations, ranging from the leasing of railroad cars to the manufacture of medical devices.</p><p><blockquote><h2>我们的四大巨头</h2>通过伯克希尔，我们的股东拥有数十家企业。反过来，其中一些又有自己的子公司。例如，Marmon拥有100多项个体业务，从铁路车辆租赁到医疗设备制造。</blockquote></p><p>• Nevertheless, operations of our “Big Four” companies account for a very large chunk of Berkshire’s value. Leading this list is our cluster of insurers. Berkshire effectively owns 100% of this group, whose massive float value we earlier described. The invested assets of these insurers are further enlarged by the extraordinary amount of capital we invest to back up their promises.</p><p><blockquote>·尽管如此，我们的“四大”公司的运营在伯克希尔的价值中占了非常大的一块。领先的是我们的保险公司集群。伯克希尔实际上拥有该集团100%的股份，其巨大的流通价值我们之前描述过。我们为支持这些保险公司的承诺而投入的大量资本进一步扩大了这些保险公司的投资资产。</blockquote></p><p>The insurance business is made to order for Berkshire. The product will never be obsolete, and sales volume will generally increase along with both economic growth and inflation. Also, integrity and capital will forever be important. Our company can and will behave well.</p><p><blockquote>保险业务是为伯克希尔定制的。该产品永远不会过时，销量通常会随着经济增长和通货膨胀而增加。此外，诚信和资本永远很重要。我们公司能够也将会表现良好。</blockquote></p><p>There are, of course, other insurers with excellent business models and prospects. Replication of Berkshire’s operation, however, would be almost impossible.</p><p><blockquote>当然，还有其他保险公司拥有出色的商业模式和前景。然而，复制伯克希尔的运作几乎是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p>• Apple – our runner-up Giant as measured by its yearend market value – is a different sort of holding. Here, our ownership is a mere 5.55%, up from 5.39% a year earlier. That increase sounds like small potatoes. But consider that each 0.1% of Apple’s 2021 earnings amounted to $100 million. We spent no Berkshire funds to gain our accretion. Apple’s repurchases did the job.</p><p><blockquote>·苹果——以年终市值衡量，它是我们的第二大巨头——是一种不同的持股类型。在这里，我们的持股比例仅为5.55%，高于一年前的5.39%。这种增长听起来像是小事。但考虑到苹果2021年盈利的0.1%总计1亿美元。我们没有花费伯克希尔的资金来获得我们的增长。苹果的回购起到了作用。</blockquote></p><p>It’s important to understand that only dividends from Apple are counted in the GAAP earnings Berkshire reports – and last year, Apple paid us $785 million of those. Yet our “share” of Apple’s earnings amounted to a staggering $5.6 billion. Much of what the company retained was used to repurchase Apple shares, an act we applaud. Tim Cook, Apple’s brilliant CEO, quite properly regards users of Apple products as his first love, but all of his other constituencies benefit from Tim’s managerial touch as well.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是要明白，伯克希尔的GAAP收益报告中只有苹果的股息被计算在内——去年，苹果支付了其中的7.85亿美元。然而，我们在苹果收益中的“份额”达到了惊人的56亿美元。该公司保留的大部分资金用于回购苹果股票，我们对此表示赞赏。苹果杰出的首席执行官蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）非常恰当地将苹果产品的用户视为他的初恋，但他的所有其他支持者也受益于蒂姆的管理风格。</blockquote></p><p>• BNSF, our third Giant, continues to be the number one artery of American commerce, which makes it an indispensable asset for America as well as for Berkshire. If the many essential products BNSF carries were instead hauled by truck, America’s carbon emissions would soar.</p><p><blockquote>•我们的第三大巨头BNSF仍然是美国商业的头号动脉，这使它成为美国和伯克希尔不可或缺的资产。如果BNSF运输的许多基本产品改为用卡车运输，美国的碳排放量将会飙升。</blockquote></p><p>Your railroad had record earnings of $6 billion in 2021. Here, it should be noted, we are talking about the old-fashioned sort of earnings that we favor: a figure calculated after interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and all forms of compensation. (Our definition suggests a warning: Deceptive “adjustments” to earnings – to use a polite description – have become both more frequent and more fanciful as stocks have risen. Speaking less politely, I would say that bull markets breed bloviated bull )</p><p><blockquote>你们的铁路在2021年的收入达到了创纪录的60亿美元。这里应该指出的是，我们谈论的是我们喜欢的老式收入：扣除利息、税收、折旧、摊销和所有形式的补偿后计算的数字。（我们的定义暗示了一个警告：随着股市上涨，欺骗性的盈利“调整”——用礼貌的描述——变得越来越频繁，也越来越异想天开。不那么礼貌地说，我会说牛市滋生了混乱的牛市）</blockquote></p><p>BNSF trains traveled 143 million miles last year and carried 535 million tons of cargo. Both accomplishments far exceed those of any other American carrier. You can be proud of your railroad.</p><p><blockquote>BNSF列车去年行驶了1.43亿英里，运载了5.35亿吨货物。这两项成就都远远超过了任何其他美国航空公司。你可以为你的铁路感到骄傲。</blockquote></p><p>• BHE, our final Giant, earned a record $4 billion in 2021. That’s up more than 30-fold from the $122 million earned in 2000, the year that Berkshire first purchased a BHE stake. Now, Berkshire owns 91.1% of the company.</p><p><blockquote>•我们最后的巨头BHE在2021年赚了创纪录的40亿美元。这比2000年（伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首次购买BHE股份的那一年）的1.22亿美元收入增长了30多倍。现在，伯克希尔拥有该公司91.1%的股份。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>BHE’s record of societal accomplishment is as remarkable as its financial performance. The company had no wind or solar generation in 2000. It was then regarded simply as a relatively new and minor participant in the huge electric utility industry. Subsequently, under David Sokol’s and Greg Abel’s leadership, BHE has become a utility powerhouse (no groaning, please) and a leading force in wind, solar and transmission throughout much of the United States.</p><p><blockquote>BHE的社会成就记录与其财务表现一样引人注目。该公司在2000年没有风能或太阳能发电。当时，它只是被视为庞大的电力行业中一个相对较新的次要参与者。随后，在David Sokol和Greg Abel的领导下，BHE已成为一家公用事业巨头（请不要呻吟）以及美国大部分地区风能、太阳能和输电领域的主导力量。</blockquote></p><p>Greg’s report on these accomplishments appears on pages A-3 and A-4. The profile you will find there is not in any way one of those currently-fashionable “green-washing” stories. BHE has been faithfully detailing its plans and performance in renewables and transmissions every year since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>格雷格关于这些成就的报告出现在A-3和A-4页。你会在那里找到的简介绝不是那些当前流行的“洗绿”故事。自2007年以来，BHE每年都忠实地详细介绍其在可再生能源和输电方面的计划和业绩。</blockquote></p><p>To further review this information, visit BHE’s website at brkenergy.com. There, you will see that the company has long been making climate-conscious moves that soak up all of its earnings. More opportunities lie ahead. BHE has the management, the experience, the capital and the appetite for the huge power projects that our country needs.</p><p><blockquote>要进一步查看这些信息，请访问BHE在brkenergy.com的网站。在那里，你会看到该公司长期以来一直在采取气候意识举措，吸收了其所有收益。更多的机会就在前方。BHE拥有我国所需的管理、经验、资金和巨大电力项目的胃口。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Investments</h2>Now let’s talk about companies we don’t control, a list that again references Apple. Below we list our fifteen largest equity holdings, several of which are selections of Berkshire’s two long-time investment managers, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. At yearend, this valued pair had total authority in respect to $34 billion of investments, many of which do not meet the threshold value we use in the table. Also, a significant portion of the dollars that Todd and Ted manage are lodged in various pension plans of Berkshire-owned businesses, with the assets of these plans not included in this table.</p><p><blockquote><h2>投资</h2>现在让我们谈谈我们不控制的公司，这份名单再次提到了苹果。下面我们列出了我们持有的15只最大的股票，其中几只是伯克希尔的两位长期投资经理托德·库姆斯和特德·韦施勒的精选。截至年底，这对有价值的投资拥有340亿美元投资的总权限，其中许多投资不符合我们在表中使用的阈值。此外，托德和特德管理的很大一部分资金存入伯克希尔旗下企业的各种养老金计划，这些计划的资产不包括在本表中。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d43587e9f59c0ff76e6c04c6bf9af324\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>* This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis.</p><p><blockquote>*这是我们的实际购买价格，也是我们的计税基础。</blockquote></p><p>** Held by BHE; consequently, Berkshire shareholders have only a 91.1% interest in this position.</p><p><blockquote>**由BHE持有；因此，伯克希尔股东在该职位上仅拥有91.1%的权益。</blockquote></p><p>*** Includes a $10 billion investment in Occidental Petroleum, consisting of preferred stock and warrants to buy common stock, a combination now being valued at $10.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>***包括对西方石油公司100亿美元的投资，包括优先股和购买普通股的认股权证，目前这一组合的价值为107亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>In addition to the footnoted Occidental holding and our various common-stock positions, Berkshire also owns a 26.6% interest in Kraft Heinz (accounted for on the “equity” method, not market value, and carried at $13.1 billion) and 38.6% of Pilot Corp., a leader in travel centers that had revenues last year of $45 billion.</p><p><blockquote>除了脚注中提到的Occidental holding和我们的各种普通股头寸之外，Berkshire还拥有卡夫亨氏26.6%的权益（按“权益”法核算，而不是市值，账面价值为131亿美元）和Pilot Corp.38.6%的权益，Pilot Corp.是旅游中心的领导者，去年的收入为450亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Since we purchased our Pilot stake in 2017, this holding has warranted “equity” accounting treatment. Early in 2023, Berkshire will purchase an additional interest in Pilot that will raise our ownership to 80% and lead to our fully consolidating Pilot’s earnings, assets and liabilities in our financial statements.</p><p><blockquote>自从我们在2017年购买了我们的试点股份以来，这种持股已经保证了“权益”会计处理。2023年初，伯克希尔将购买Pilot的额外权益，这将使我们的所有权提高到80%，并使我们在财务报表中完全合并Pilot的收益、资产和负债。</blockquote></p><p><h2>U.S. Treasury Bills</h2>Berkshire’s balance sheet includes $144 billion of cash and cash equivalents (excluding the holdings of BNSF and BHE). Of this sum, $120 billion is held in U.S. Treasury bills, all maturing in less than a year. That stake leaves Berkshire financing about 12 of 1% of the publicly-held national debt.</p><p><blockquote><h2>美国国库券</h2>伯克希尔的资产负债表包括1440亿美元的现金和现金等价物（不包括持有的BNSF和BHE）。其中，1200亿美元是美国国库券，全部在不到一年的时间内到期。这些股份使伯克希尔哈撒韦公司为公共持有的国债的1%中的约12提供融资。</blockquote></p><p>Charlie and I have pledged that Berkshire (along with our subsidiaries other than BNSF and BHE) will always hold more than $30 billion of cash and equivalents. We want your company to be financially impregnable and never dependent on the kindness of strangers (or even that of friends). Both of us like to sleep soundly, and we want our creditors, insurance claimants and you to do so as well.</p><p><blockquote>查理和我承诺，伯克希尔（连同我们除BNSF和BHE之外的子公司）将始终持有超过300亿美元的现金和等价物。我们希望你的公司在财务上坚不可摧，永远不要依赖陌生人（甚至朋友）的善意。我们都喜欢睡得很香，我们希望我们的债权人、保险索赔人和你也这样做。</blockquote></p><p><h2>But $144 billion?</h2>That imposing sum, I assure you, is not some deranged expression of patriotism. Nor have Charlie and I lost our overwhelming preference for business ownership. Indeed, I first manifested my enthusiasm for that 80 years ago, on March 11, 1942, when I purchased three shares of Cities Services preferred stock. Their cost was $114.75 and required all of my savings. (The Dow Jones Industrial Average that day closed at 99, a fact that should scream to you: Never bet against America.)</p><p><blockquote><h2>但是1440亿美元？</h2>我向你保证，这笔巨额资金并不是某种疯狂的爱国主义表达。查理和我也没有失去对企业所有权的压倒性偏好。事实上，80年前的1942年3月11日，我第一次表现出了我对此的热情，当时我购买了三股城市服务公司的优先股。它们的成本是114.75美元，需要我所有的积蓄。（道琼斯工业平均指数当天收于99点，这个事实应该让你尖叫：永远不要做空美国。）</blockquote></p><p>After my initial plunge, I always kept at least 80% of my net worth in equities. My favored status throughout that period was 100% – and still is. Berkshire’s current 80%-or-so position in businesses is a consequence of my failure to find entire companies or small portions thereof (that is, marketable stocks) which meet our criteria for long- term holding.</p><p><blockquote>在我最初的暴跌之后，我总是将至少80%的净资产投资于股票。在那段时间里，我最喜欢的状态是100%——现在仍然如此。伯克希尔目前80%左右的企业头寸是我未能找到符合我们长期持有标准的整个公司或其中一小部分（即有价证券）的结果。</blockquote></p><p>Charlie and I have endured similar cash-heavy positions from time to time in the past. These periods are never pleasant; they are also never permanent. And, fortunately, we have had a mildly attractive alternative during 2020 and 2021 for deploying capital. Read on.</p><p><blockquote>查理和我过去也不时经历过类似的现金密集型头寸。这些时期从来都不愉快；它们也不是永久的。幸运的是，我们在2020年和2021年期间有一个稍微有吸引力的资本部署替代方案。继续读下去。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><h2>Share Repurchases</h2>There are three ways that we can increase the value of your investment. The first is always front and center in our minds: Increase the long-term earning power of Berkshire’s controlled businesses through internal growth or by making acquisitions. Today, internal opportunities deliver far better returns than acquisitions. The size of those opportunities, however, is small compared to Berkshire’s resources.</p><p><blockquote><h2>股份购回</h2>我们有三种方法可以增加您的投资价值。第一个始终是我们最关心的问题：通过内部增长或收购来提高伯克希尔控制业务的长期盈利能力。如今，内部机会比收购带来更好的回报。然而，与伯克希尔的资源相比，这些机会的规模很小。</blockquote></p><p>Our second choice is to buy non-controlling part-interests in the many good or great businesses that are publicly traded. From time to time, such possibilities are both numerous and blatantly attractive. Today, though, we find little that excites us.</p><p><blockquote>我们的第二个选择是购买许多公开交易的优秀或伟大企业的非控股部分权益。有时，这样的可能性既众多又极具吸引力。然而今天，我们很少发现让我们兴奋的东西。</blockquote></p><p>That’s largely because of a truism: Long-term interest rates that are low push the prices of all productive investments upward, whether these are stocks, apartments, farms, oil wells, whatever. Other factors influence valuations as well, but interest rates will always be important.</p><p><blockquote>这在很大程度上是因为一个不言而喻的事实：低长期利率会推高所有生产性投资的价格，无论是股票、公寓、农场、油井等等。其他因素也会影响估值，但利率始终很重要。</blockquote></p><p>Our final path to value creation is to repurchase Berkshire shares. Through that simple act, we increase your share of the many controlled and non-controlled businesses Berkshire owns. When the price/value equation is right, this path is the easiest and most certain way for us to increase your wealth. (Alongside the accretion of value to continuing shareholders, a couple of other parties gain: Repurchases are modestly beneficial to the seller of the repurchased shares and to society as well.)</p><p><blockquote>我们创造价值的最终途径是回购伯克希尔股票。通过这一简单的行为，我们增加了您在伯克希尔拥有的许多受控和非受控业务中的份额。当价格/价值等式正确时，这条路径是我们增加您财富的最简单、最确定的方式。（除了持续股东的价值增加之外，其他一些人也会受益：回购对回购股票的卖方和社会都有适度的好处。）</blockquote></p><p>Periodically, as alternative paths become unattractive, repurchases make good sense for Berkshire’s owners. During the past two years, we therefore repurchased 9% of the shares that were outstanding at yearend 2019 for a total cost of $51.7 billion. That expenditure left our continuing shareholders owning about 10% more of all Berkshire businesses, whether these are wholly-owned (such as BNSF and GEICO) or partly-owned (such as Coca-Cola and Moody’s).</p><p><blockquote>周期性地，随着替代路径变得没有吸引力，回购对伯克希尔的所有者来说是有意义的。因此，在过去两年中，我们回购了2019年底已发行股票的9%，总成本为517亿美元。这笔支出使我们的持续股东拥有伯克希尔所有业务约10%的股份，无论这些业务是全资拥有的（如BNSF和GEICO）还是部分拥有的（如可口可乐和穆迪）。</blockquote></p><p>I want to underscore that for Berkshire repurchases to make sense, our shares must offer appropriate value. We don’t want to overpay for the shares of other companies, and it would be value-destroying if we were to overpay when we are buying Berkshire. As of February 23, 2022, since yearend we repurchased additional shares at a cost of $1.2 billion. Our appetite remains large but will always remain price-dependent.</p><p><blockquote>我想强调的是，为了让伯克希尔的回购有意义，我们的股票必须提供适当的价值。我们不想为其他公司的股票支付过高的价格，如果我们在购买伯克希尔时支付过高的价格，那将是对价值的破坏。截至2022年2月23日，自年底以来，我们以12亿美元的成本回购了额外股票。我们的胃口仍然很大，但将始终取决于价格。</blockquote></p><p>It should be noted that Berkshire’s buyback opportunities are limited because of its high-class investor base. If our shares were heavily held by short-term speculators, both price volatility and transaction volumes would materially increase. That kind of reshaping would offer us far greater opportunities for creating value by making repurchases. Nevertheless, Charlie and I far prefer the owners we have, even though their admirable buy-and-keep attitudes limit the extent to which long-term shareholders can profit from opportunistic repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>需要注意的是，伯克希尔的回购机会有限，因为其投资者基础很高。倘我们的股份被短期投机者大量持有，价格波动及交易量将大幅增加。这种重塑将为我们提供更多通过回购创造价值的机会。然而，查理和我更喜欢我们现有的所有者，尽管他们令人钦佩的买入并持有态度限制了长期股东从机会主义回购中获利的程度。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, one easily-overlooked value calculation specific to Berkshire: As we’ve discussed, insurance “float” of the right sort is of great value to us. As it happens, repurchases automatically increase the amount of “float” per share. That figure has increased during the past two years by 25% – going from $79,387 per “A” share to $99,497, a meaningful gain that, as noted, owes some thanks to repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>最后，一个容易被忽视的伯克希尔特有的价值计算：正如我们已经讨论过的，正确类型的保险“浮动”对我们来说非常有价值。碰巧的是，回购会自动增加每股的“流通量”。这一数字在过去两年中增长了25%，从每股“A”股79,387美元增至99,497美元，如前所述，这一有意义的涨幅在一定程度上要归功于回购。</blockquote></p><p><h2>A Wonderful Man and a Wonderful Business</h2>Last year, Paul Andrews died. Paul was the founder and CEO of TTI, a Fort Worth-based subsidiary of Berkshire. Throughout his life – in both his business and his personal pursuits – Paul quietly displayed all the qualities that Charlie and I admire. His story should be told.</p><p><blockquote><h2>一个了不起的人和一个了不起的企业</h2>去年，保罗·安德鲁斯去世了。保罗是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司位于沃思堡的子公司TTI的创始人兼首席执行官。在他的一生中——在他的事业和个人追求中——保罗悄悄地展示了查理和我所钦佩的所有品质。他的故事应该被讲述。</blockquote></p><p>In 1971, Paul was working as a purchasing agent for General Dynamics when the roof fell in. After losing a huge defense contract, the company fired thousands of employees, including Paul.</p><p><blockquote>1971年，当屋顶倒塌时，保罗正在通用动力公司担任采购代理。在失去一份巨额国防合同后，该公司解雇了数千名员工，其中包括保罗。</blockquote></p><p>With his first child due soon, Paul decided to bet on himself, using $500 of his savings to found Tex-Tronics (later renamed TTI). The company set itself up to distribute small electronic components, and first-year sales totaled $112,000. Today, TTI markets more than one million different items with annual volume of $7.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>随着他的第一个孩子即将出生，保罗决定把赌注押在自己身上，用他的500美元积蓄创办了Tex-Tronics（后来更名为TTI）。该公司致力于分销小型电子元件，第一年的销售额总计112,000美元。如今，创科实业销售超过100万种不同的产品，年销售额达77亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>But back to 2006: Paul, at 63, then found himself happy with his family, his job, and his associates. But he had one nagging worry, heightened because he had recently witnessed a friend’s early death and the disastrous results that followed for that man’s family and business. What, Paul asked himself in 2006, would happen to the many people depending on him if he should unexpectedly die?</p><p><blockquote>但回到2006年：63岁的保罗发现自己对家庭、工作和同事都很满意。但他有一个挥之不去的担忧，因为他最近目睹了一个朋友的早逝以及随之而来的对那个人的家庭和生意的灾难性后果，这种担忧加剧了。保罗在2006年问自己，如果他意外去世，许多依赖他的人会怎么样？</blockquote></p><p>For a year, Paul wrestled with his options. Sell to a competitor? From a strictly economic viewpoint, that course made the most sense. After all, competitors could envision lucrative “synergies” – savings that would be achieved as the acquiror slashed duplicated functions at TTI.</p><p><blockquote>一年来，保罗一直在纠结自己的选择。卖给竞争对手？从严格的经济角度来看，这个过程是最有意义的。毕竟，竞争对手可以设想利润丰厚的“协同效应”——随着收购方削减TTI的重复职能，将实现节省。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>But . . . Such a purchaser would most certainly also retain its CFO, its legal counsel, its HR unit. Their TTI counterparts would therefore be sent packing. And ugh! If a new distribution center were to be needed, the acquirer’s home city would certainly be favored over Fort Worth.</p><p><blockquote>但是...这样的购买者肯定还会保留其首席财务官、法律顾问和人力资源部门。因此，他们的TTI同行将被打包发送。还有啊！如果需要一个新的配送中心，收购方的家乡城市肯定会比沃思堡更受青睐。</blockquote></p><p>Whatever the financial benefits, Paul quickly concluded that selling to a competitor was not for him. He next considered seeking a financial buyer, a species once labeled – aptly so – a leveraged buyout firm. Paul knew, however, that such a purchaser would be focused on an “exit strategy.” And who could know what that would be? Brooding over it all, Paul found himself having no interest in handing his 35-year-old creation over to a reseller.</p><p><blockquote>不管经济利益如何，保罗很快得出结论，卖给竞争对手不适合他。接下来，他考虑寻找一家金融买家，这种买家曾经被恰当地称为杠杆收购公司。然而，保罗知道这样的买家会专注于“退出策略”。谁知道那会是什么？考虑到这一切，保罗发现自己没有兴趣将他35岁的创作交给经销商。</blockquote></p><p>When Paul met me, he explained why he had eliminated these two alternatives as buyers. He then summed up his dilemma by saying – in far more tactful phrasing than this – “After a year of pondering the alternatives, I want to sell to Berkshire because you are the only guy left.” So, I made an offer and Paul said “Yes.” One meeting; one lunch; one deal.</p><p><blockquote>当保罗见到我时，他解释了为什么他作为买家排除了这两种选择。然后，他用比这更委婉的措辞总结了自己的困境：“经过一年的思考，我想把它卖给伯克希尔，因为你是唯一剩下的人。”所以，我提出了一个提议，保罗答应了。一次会议；一顿午餐；一笔交易。</blockquote></p><p>To say we both lived happily ever after is an understatement. When Berkshire purchased TTI, the company employed 2,387. Now the number is 8,043. A large percentage of that growth took place in Fort Worth and environs. Earnings have increased 673%.</p><p><blockquote>说我们从此过上了幸福的生活是一种保守的说法。当伯克希尔收购TTI时，该公司拥有2,387名员工。现在这个数字是8043。其中很大一部分增长发生在沃思堡及周边地区。盈利增长了673%。</blockquote></p><p>Annually, I would call Paul and tell him his salary should be substantially increased. Annually, he would tell me, “We can talk about that next year, Warren; I’m too busy now.”</p><p><blockquote>每年，我都会给保罗发看涨期权，告诉他他的薪水应该大幅增加。每年，他都会告诉我，“我们可以明年再谈这个，沃伦，我现在太忙了。”</blockquote></p><p>When Greg Abel and I attended Paul’s memorial service, we met children, grandchildren, long-time associates (including TTI’s first employee) and John Roach, the former CEO of a Fort Worth company Berkshire had purchased in 2000. John had steered his friend Paul to Omaha, instinctively knowing we would be a match.</p><p><blockquote>当格雷格·阿贝尔和我参加保罗的追悼会时，我们见到了孩子、孙子、长期合作伙伴（包括创科实业的第一位员工）和约翰·罗奇，他是伯克希尔2000年收购的沃斯堡一家公司的前首席执行官。约翰带着他的朋友保罗去了奥马哈，本能地知道我们会是一对。</blockquote></p><p>At the service, Greg and I heard about the multitudes of people and organizations that Paul had silently supported. The breadth of his generosity was extraordinary – geared always to improving the lives of others, particularly those in Fort Worth.</p><p><blockquote>在仪式上，格雷格和我听说了保罗默默支持的许多人和组织。他的慷慨是非凡的——总是致力于改善他人的生活，尤其是那些在沃思堡的人。</blockquote></p><p>In all ways, Paul was a class act.</p><p><blockquote>从各方面来看，保罗都是一流的。</blockquote></p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p><blockquote>**</blockquote></p><p>Good luck – occasionally extraordinary luck – has played its part at Berkshire. If Paul and I had not enjoyed a mutual friend – John Roach – TTI would not have found its home with us. But that ample serving of luck was only the beginning. TTI was soon to lead Berkshire to its most important acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>好运——偶尔是非凡的运气——在伯克希尔发挥了作用。如果保罗和我没有一个共同的朋友——约翰·罗奇——TTI就不会在我们身边找到它的家。但是这种充足的运气仅仅是个开始。TTI很快就带领伯克希尔完成了其最重要的收购。</blockquote></p><p>Every fall, Berkshire directors gather for a presentation by a few of our executives. We sometimes choose the site based upon the location of a recent acquisition, by that means allowing directors to meet the new subsidiary’s CEO and learn more about the acquiree’s activities.</p><p><blockquote>每年秋天，伯克希尔的董事们都会聚集在一起，听取我们几位高管的演讲。我们有时会根据最近收购的地点来选择地点，这样可以让董事会见新子公司的首席执行官，并更多地了解被收购方的活动。</blockquote></p><p>In the fall of 2009, we consequently selected Fort Worth so that we could visit TTI. At that time, BNSF, which also had Fort Worth as its hometown, was the third-largest holding among our marketable equities. Despite that large stake, I had never visited the railroad’s headquarters.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在2009年秋天，我们选择了沃思堡，这样我们就可以参观TTI。当时，BNSF的家乡也是沃思堡，是我们有价证券中的第三大持股。尽管有这么大的股份，我从未去过铁路总部。</blockquote></p><p>Deb Bosanek, my assistant, scheduled our board’s opening dinner for October 22. Meanwhile, I arranged to arrive earlier that day to meet with Matt Rose, CEO of BNSF, whose accomplishments I had long admired. When I made the date, I had no idea that our get-together would coincide with BNSF’s third-quarter earnings report, which was released late on the 22nd.</p><p><blockquote>我的助手Deb Bosanek将我们董事会的开幕晚宴安排在10月22日。与此同时，我安排当天早些时候到达，会见BNSF首席执行官马特·罗斯，他的成就我长期以来一直钦佩。当我确定这个日期时，我不知道我们的聚会会恰逢BNSF于22日晚些时候发布的第三季度收益报告。</blockquote></p><p>The market reacted badly to the railroad’s results. The Great Recession was in full force in the third quarter, and BNSF’s earnings reflected that slump. The economic outlook was also bleak, and Wall Street wasn’t feeling friendly to railroads – or much else.</p><p><blockquote>市场对铁路公司的业绩反应不佳。大衰退在第三季度全面爆发，BNSF的盈利反映了这种下滑。经济前景也很黯淡，华尔街对铁路或其他许多行业都不太友好。</blockquote></p><p>On the following day, I again got together with Matt and suggested that Berkshire would offer the railroad a better long-term home than it could expect as a public company. I also told him the maximum price that Berkshire would pay.</p><p><blockquote>第二天，我再次和马特聚在一起，建议伯克希尔为铁路公司提供一个比上市公司更好的长期住所。我还告诉了他伯克希尔愿意支付的最高价格。</blockquote></p><p>Matt relayed the offer to his directors and advisors. Eleven busy days later, Berkshire and BNSF announced a firm deal. And here I’ll venture a rare prediction: BNSF will be a key asset for Berkshire and our country a century from now.</p><p><blockquote>马特向他的董事和顾问转达了这一提议。忙碌了11天后，伯克希尔和BNSF宣布了一项确定的交易。在这里，我大胆地做一个罕见的预测：一个世纪后，BNSF将成为伯克希尔和我们国家的关键资产。</blockquote></p><p>The BNSF acquisition would never have happened if Paul Andrews hadn’t sized up Berkshire as the right home for TTI.</p><p><blockquote>如果保罗·安德鲁斯(Paul Andrews)没有将伯克希尔视为TTI的合适住所，BNSF的收购永远不会发生。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Thanks</h2>I taught my first investing class 70 years ago. Since then, I have enjoyed working almost every year with students of all ages, finally “retiring” from that pursuit in 2018.</p><p><blockquote><h2>谢谢</h2>70年前，我教了我的第一堂投资课。从那以后，我几乎每年都喜欢和各个年龄段的学生一起工作，最终在2018年从这种追求中“退休”。</blockquote></p><p>Along the way, my toughest audience was my grandson’s fifth-grade class. The 11-year-olds were squirming in their seats and giving me blank stares until I mentioned Coca-Cola and its famous secret formula. Instantly, every hand went up, and I learned that “secrets” are catnip to kids.</p><p><blockquote>一路上，我最难对付的观众是我孙子五年级的班级。11岁的孩子们在座位上蠕动，茫然地看着我，直到我提到可口可乐和它著名的秘密配方。立刻，每个人都举起了手，我明白了“秘密”对孩子们来说是猫薄荷。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Teaching, like writing, has helped me develop and clarify my own thoughts. Charlie calls this phenomenon the orangutan effect: If you sit down with an orangutan and carefully explain to it one of your cherished ideas, you may leave behind a puzzled primate, but will yourself exit thinking more clearly.</p><p><blockquote>教学和写作一样，帮助我发展和理清了自己的思想。查理·评级这种现象猩猩效应：如果你和一只猩猩坐下来，仔细地向它解释你珍视的一个想法，你可能会留下一只困惑的灵长类动物，但你自己会更清楚地思考吗？</blockquote></p><p>Talking to university students is far superior. I have urged that they seek employment in (1) the field and (2) with the kind of people they would select, if they had no need for money. Economic realities, I acknowledge, may interfere with that kind of search. Even so, I urge the students never to give up the quest, for when they find that sort of job, they will no longer be “working.”</p><p><blockquote>和大学生说话要优越得多。我敦促他们在（1）这个领域和（2）如果他们不需要钱，他们会选择的那种人那里找工作。我承认，经济现实可能会干扰这种搜索。即便如此，我敦促学生们永远不要放弃追求，因为当他们找到那种工作时，他们将不再是“工作”。</blockquote></p><p>Charlie and I, ourselves, followed that liberating course after a few early stumbles. We both started as part- timers at my grandfather’s grocery store, Charlie in 1940 and I in 1942. We were each assigned boring tasks and paid little, definitely not what we had in mind. Charlie later took up law, and I tried selling securities. Job satisfaction continued to elude us.</p><p><blockquote>查理和我，我们自己，在经历了一些早期的挫折后，走上了解放的道路。我们都是从我祖父的杂货店兼职开始的，查理是1940年，我是1942年。我们每个人都被分配了无聊的任务，报酬很低，绝对不是我们想要的。查理后来从事法律工作，我尝试出售证券。工作满意度继续困扰着我们。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, at Berkshire, we found what we love to do. With very few exceptions, we have now “worked” for many decades with people whom we like and trust. It’s a joy in life to join with managers such as Paul Andrews or the Berkshire families I told you about last year. In our home office, we employ decent and talented people – no jerks. Turnover averages, perhaps, one person per year.</p><p><blockquote>最后，在伯克希尔，我们找到了自己喜欢做的事情。除了极少数例外，我们现在已经和我们喜欢和信任的人“工作”了几十年。与保罗·安德鲁斯或我去年告诉过你的伯克希尔家族等经理人一起工作是生活中的一种乐趣。在我们的家庭办公室，我们雇佣体面和有才华的人——没有混蛋。平均离职人数可能是每年一人。</blockquote></p><p>I would like, however, to emphasize a further item that turns our jobs into fun and satisfaction working</p><p><blockquote>然而，我想强调另一个项目，它将我们的工作变成有趣和令人满意的工作</blockquote></p><p>for you. There is nothing more rewarding to Charlie and me than enjoying the trust of individual long-term shareholders who, for many decades, have joined us with the expectation that we would be a reliable custodian of their funds.</p><p><blockquote>为了你。对查理和我来说，没有什么比享受个人长期股东的信任更有意义的了，几十年来，他们加入我们的期望是我们将成为他们资金的可靠托管人。</blockquote></p><p>Obviously, we can’t select our owners, as we could do if our form of operation were a partnership. Anyone can buy shares of Berkshire today with the intention of soon reselling them. For sure, we get a few of that type of shareholder, just as we get index funds that own huge amounts of Berkshire simply because they are required to do so.</p><p><blockquote>显然，我们不能选择我们的所有者，如果我们的运营形式是合伙企业，我们可以这样做。任何人今天都可以购买伯克希尔的股票，并打算很快转售。当然，我们有一些此类股东，就像我们有指数基金持有大量伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股票一样，因为它们被要求这样做。</blockquote></p><p>To a truly unusual degree, however, Berkshire has as owners a very large corps of individuals and families that have elected to join us with an intent approaching “til death do us part.” Often, they have trusted us with a large – some might say excessive – portion of their savings.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在一个真正不寻常的程度上，伯克希尔拥有一大批个人和家庭作为所有者，他们选择加入我们，意图是“直到死亡将我们分开”。通常，他们把很大一部分——有些人可能会说是过多的——储蓄托付给我们。</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire, these shareholders would sometimes acknowledge, might be far from the best selection they could have made. But they would add that Berkshire would rank high among those with which they would be most comfortable. And people who are comfortable with their investments will, on average, achieve better results than those who are motivated by ever-changing headlines, chatter and promises.</p><p><blockquote>这些股东有时会承认，伯克希尔可能远不是他们所能做出的最佳选择。但他们会补充说，伯克希尔将在他们最满意的公司中排名靠前。平均而言，对自己的投资感到满意的人会比那些被不断变化的头条新闻、喋喋不休和承诺所激励的人取得更好的结果。</blockquote></p><p>Long-term individual owners are both the “partners” Charlie and I have always sought and the ones we constantly have in mind as we make decisions at Berkshire. To them we say, “It feels good to ‘work’ for you, and you have our thanks for your trust.”</p><p><blockquote>长期个人所有者既是查理和我一直在寻找的“合作伙伴”，也是我们在伯克希尔做决策时一直牢记的“合作伙伴”。我们对他们说：“为你们‘工作’的感觉真好，我们感谢你们的信任。”</blockquote></p><p><h2>The Annual Meeting</h2>Clear your calendar! Berkshire will have its annual gathering of capitalists in Omaha on Friday, April 29th through Sunday, May 1st. The details regarding the weekend are laid out on pages A-1 and A-2. Omaha eagerly awaits you, as do I.</p><p><blockquote><h2>年会</h2>清除您的日历！伯克希尔将于4月29日星期五至5月1日星期日在奥马哈举行年度资本家聚会。关于周末的细节列在A-1和A-2页。奥马哈急切地等待着你，我也是。</blockquote></p><p>I will end this letter with a sales pitch. “Cousin” Jimmy Buffett has designed a pontoon “party” boat that is now being manufactured by Forest River, a Berkshire subsidiary. The boat will be introduced on April 29 at our Berkshire Bazaar of Bargains. And, for two days only, shareholders will be able to purchase Jimmy’s masterpiece at a 10% discount. Your bargain-hunting chairman will be buying a boat for his family’s use. Join me.</p><p><blockquote>我将以推销来结束这封信。“表哥”吉米·巴菲特设计了一艘浮桥“派对”船，现在由伯克希尔旗下的森林河公司制造。这艘船将于4月29日在我们的伯克希尔便宜货市场推出。而且，仅在两天内，股东就可以以10%的折扣购买吉米的杰作。你的便宜货董事长会买一艘船给他的家人使用。加入我。</blockquote></p><p>February 26, 2022</p><p><blockquote>2022年2月26日</blockquote></p><p>Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·E·巴菲特董事会主席</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett Full Annual Letter：Apple is One of ‘Four Giants’ Driving the Conglomerate’s Value<blockquote>巴菲特完整年度信：苹果是推动巴菲特价值的“四大巨头”之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett Full Annual Letter：Apple is One of ‘Four Giants’ Driving the Conglomerate’s Value<blockquote>巴菲特完整年度信：苹果是推动巴菲特价值的“四大巨头”之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-27 09:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Warren Buffett released his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders on Saturday. The 91-year-old investing legend has been publishing the letter for over six decades and it has become required reading for investors around the world.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>沃伦·巴菲特周六发布了致伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司股东的年度信。这位91岁的投资传奇人物已经出版这封信60多年了，它已成为世界各地投资者的必读书目。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Warren Buffett said he now considers tech giant Apple as one of the four pillars driving Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate of mostly old-economy businesses he’s assembled over the last five decades.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特表示，他现在认为科技巨头苹果是推动伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司的四大支柱之一，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司是沃伦·巴菲特在过去50年里组建的主要由旧经济企业组成的企业集团。</blockquote></p><p>In his annual letter to shareholders released on Saturday, the 91-year-old investing legend listed Apple under the heading “Our Four Giants” and even called the company the second-most important after Berkshire’s cluster of insurers, thanks to its chief executive.</p><p><blockquote>在周六发布的致股东的年度信中，这位91岁的投资传奇人物将苹果列为“我们的四大巨头”，甚至称该公司是仅次于伯克希尔保险集团的第二大保险公司，这要归功于伯克希尔的首席执行官。</blockquote></p><p>“Tim Cook, Apple’s brilliant CEO, quite properly regards users of Apple products as his first love, but all of his other constituencies benefit from Tim’s managerial touch as well,” the letter stated.</p><p><blockquote>信中写道：“苹果才华横溢的首席执行官蒂姆·库克非常恰当地将苹果产品的用户视为他的初恋，但他的所有其他支持者也受益于蒂姆的管理风格。”</blockquote></p><p>Buffett made clear he is a fan of Cook’s stock repurchase strategy, and how it gives the conglomerate increased ownership of each dollar of the iPhone maker’s earnings without the investor having to lift a finger.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特明确表示，他是库克股票回购策略的粉丝，以及该策略如何让该集团增加对这家iPhone制造商每一美元收益的所有权，而投资者无需动一根手指。</blockquote></p><p>“Apple – our runner-up Giant as measured by its yearend market value – is a different sort of holding. Here, our ownership is a mere 5.55%, up from 5.39% a year earlier,” Buffett said in the letter. “That increase sounds like small potatoes. But consider that each 0.1% of Apple’s 2021 earnings amounted to $100 million. We spent no Berkshire funds to gain our accretion. Apple’s repurchases did the job.”</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在信中表示：“以年终市值衡量，苹果是我们的第二大巨头。在这里，我们的持股比例仅为5.55%，高于一年前的5.39%。”“这一增长听起来像是小巫见大巫。但考虑到苹果2021年盈利的0.1%相当于1亿美元。我们没有花费伯克希尔的资金来获得增长。苹果的回购完成了这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire began buying Apple stock in 2016 under the influence of Buffett’s investing deputies Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. By mid-2018, the conglomerate accumulated 5% ownership of the iPhone maker, a stake that cost $36 billion. Today, the Apple investment is now worth more than $160 billion, taking up 40% of Berkshire’s equity portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>在巴菲特投资副手Todd Combs和Ted Weschler的影响下，Berkshire于2016年开始买入苹果股票。到2018年中期，该集团积累了这家iPhone制造商5%的股份，价值360亿美元。如今，苹果的投资价值超过1600亿美元，占伯克希尔股票投资组合的40%。</blockquote></p><p>“It’s important to understand that only dividends from Apple are counted in the GAAP earnings Berkshire reports – and last year, Apple paid us $785 million of those. Yet our ‘share’ of Apple’s earnings amounted to a staggering $5.6 billion. Much of what the company retained was used to repurchase Apple shares, an act we applaud,” Buffett said.</p><p><blockquote>“重要的是要明白，只有苹果的股息才会计入伯克希尔的GAAP收益报告中——去年，苹果支付了其中的7.85亿美元。然而，我们在苹果收益中的‘份额’达到了惊人的56亿美元。公司保留的大部分资金用于回购苹果股票，我们对此表示赞赏。”</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire is Apple’s largest shareholder, outside of index and exchange-traded fund providers.</p><p><blockquote>除了指数和交易所交易基金提供商之外，Berkshire是苹果最大的股东。</blockquote></p><p>Buffett also credited his railroad business BNSF and energy segment BHE as two other giants of the conglomerate, which both registered record earnings in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特还将他的铁路业务BNSF和能源部门BHE视为该集团的另外两家巨头，这两家公司在2021年的盈利均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p>“BNSF, our third Giant, continues to be the number one artery of American commerce, which makes it an indispensable asset for America as well as for Berkshire,” Buffett said. “BHE has become a utility powerhouse and a leading force in wind, solar and transmission throughout much of the United States.”</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特表示：“我们的第三大巨头BNSF仍然是美国商业的第一大动脉，这使其成为美国和伯克希尔不可或缺的资产。”“BHE已成为美国大部分地区的公用事业巨头以及风能、太阳能和输电领域的主导力量。”</blockquote></p><p><b>Read the full letter here：</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在这里阅读完整的信：</b></blockquote></p><p>To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:</p><p><blockquote>致伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股东：</blockquote></p><p>Charlie Munger, my long-time partner, and I have the job of managing a portion of your savings. We are honored by your trust.</p><p><blockquote>我的长期合伙人查理·芒格和我的工作是管理你的一部分储蓄。我们很荣幸得到你的信任。</blockquote></p><p>Our position carries with it the responsibility to report to you what we would like to know if we were the absentee owner and you were the manager. We enjoy communicating directly with you through this annual letter, and through the annual meeting as well.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们是缺席的所有者，而您是经理，我们的职位有责任向您报告我们想知道的信息。我们喜欢通过这封年度信函和年会直接与您交流。</blockquote></p><p>Our policy is to treat all shareholders equally. Therefore, we do not hold discussions with analysts nor large institutions. Whenever possible, also, we release important communications on Saturday mornings in order to maximize the time for shareholders and the media to absorb the news before markets open on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>我们的政策是平等对待所有股东。因此，我们不与分析师或大型机构进行讨论。此外，只要有可能，我们会在周六上午发布重要信息，以便最大限度地让股东和媒体在周一开市前有时间了解新闻。</blockquote></p><p>A wealth of Berkshire facts and figures are set forth in the annual 10-K that the company regularly files with the S.E.C. and that we reproduce on pages K-1 – K-119. Some shareholders will find this detail engrossing; others will simply prefer to learn what Charlie and I believe is new or interesting at Berkshire.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔定期向美国证券交易委员会提交的年度10-K报告中列出了大量事实和数据。我们在K-1-K-119页复制了这一点。一些股东会发现这个细节引人入胜；其他人则更愿意了解查理和我认为伯克希尔的新事物或有趣之处。</blockquote></p><p>Alas, there was little action of that sort in 2021. We did, though, make reasonable progress in increasing the intrinsic value of your shares. That task has been my primary duty for 57 years. And it will continue to be.</p><p><blockquote>唉，2021年几乎没有这样的行动。不过，我们在增加您股票的内在价值方面确实取得了合理的进展。57年来，这项任务一直是我的主要职责。并将继续如此。</blockquote></p><p><b>What You Own</b></p><p><blockquote><b>你拥有什么</b></blockquote></p><p>Berkshire owns a wide variety of businesses, some in their entirety, some only in part. The second group largely consists of marketable common stocks of major American companies. Additionally, we own a few non-U.S. equities and participate in several joint ventures or other collaborative activities.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔拥有各种各样的业务，有些是全部，有些只是部分。第二组主要由美国大公司的有价证券普通股组成。此外，我们拥有一些非美国股票，并参与多家合资企业或其他合作活动。</blockquote></p><p>Whatever our form of ownership, our goal is to have meaningful investments in businesses with both durable economic advantages and a first-class CEO. Please note particularly that we own stocks based upon our expectations about their long-term business performance and not because we view them as vehicles for timely market moves. That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.</p><p><blockquote>无论我们的所有权形式如何，我们的目标都是对既有持久经济优势又有一流首席执行官的企业进行有意义的投资。请特别注意，我们持有股票是基于我们对其长期业务表现的预期，而不是因为我们将它们视为及时市场波动的工具。这一点至关重要：查理和我不是选股者；我们是挑选生意的人。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>I make many mistakes. Consequently, our extensive collection of businesses includes some enterprises that have truly extraordinary economics, many others that enjoy good economic characteristics, and a few that are marginal. One advantage of our common-stock segment is that – on occasion – it becomes easy to buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices. That shooting-fish-in-a-barrel experience is very rare in negotiated transactions and never occurs en masse. It is also far easier to exit from a mistake when it has been made in the marketable arena.</p><p><blockquote>我犯了很多错误。因此，我们广泛收集的企业包括一些具有真正非凡经济效益的企业，许多其他享有良好经济特征的企业，以及少数边缘企业。我们普通股部门的一个优势是——有时——以优惠的价格购买精彩的业务变得很容易。这种在谈判交易中射鱼的经历非常罕见，而且永远不会集体发生。当错误发生在市场舞台上时，从错误中退出也要容易得多。</blockquote></p><p><h2><b>Surprise, Surprise</b></h2>Here are a few items about your company that often surprise even seasoned investors:</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>惊喜，惊喜</b></h2>以下是有关贵公司的一些事项，即使是经验丰富的投资者也常常感到惊讶：</blockquote></p><p>• Many people perceive Berkshire as a large and somewhat strange collection of financial assets. In truth, Berkshire owns and operates more U.S.-based “infrastructure” assets – classified on our balance sheet as property, plant and equipment – than are owned and operated by any other American corporation. That supremacy has never been our goal. It has, however, become a fact.</p><p><blockquote>•许多人认为伯克希尔是一个庞大而有些奇怪的金融资产集合体。事实上，伯克希尔拥有和经营的美国“基础设施”资产（在我们的资产负债表上归类为财产、厂房和设备）比任何其他美国公司拥有和经营的都多。这种霸权从来都不是我们的目标。然而，这已经成为事实。</blockquote></p><p>At yearend, those domestic infrastructure assets were carried on Berkshire’s balance sheet at $158 billion. That number increased last year and will continue to increase. Berkshire always will be building.</p><p><blockquote>截至年底，这些国内基础设施资产在伯克希尔资产负债表上的价值为1580亿美元。这一数字去年有所增加，并将继续增加。伯克希尔将永远在建设。</blockquote></p><p>• Every year, your company makes substantial federal income tax payments. In 2021, for example, we paid</p><p><blockquote>•您的公司每年都要缴纳大量的联邦所得税。例如，在2021年，我们支付了</blockquote></p><p>$3.3 billion while the U.S. Treasury reported total corporate income-tax receipts of $402 billion. Additionally, Berkshire pays substantial state and foreign taxes. “I gave at the office” is an unassailable assertion when made by Berkshire shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>33亿美元，而美国财政部报告的企业所得税总收入为4020亿美元。此外，伯克希尔还缴纳大量的州税和外国税。“我在办公室给了”是伯克希尔股东不容置疑的断言。</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire’s history vividly illustrates the invisible and often unrecognized financial partnership between  government and American businesses. Our tale begins early in 1955, when Berkshire Fine Spinning and Hathaway Manufacturing agreed to merge their businesses. In their requests for shareholder approval, these venerable New England textile companies expressed high hopes for the combination.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔的历史生动地说明了政府和美国企业之间看不见的、往往不被认可的金融伙伴关系。我们的故事始于1955年初，当时伯克希尔精细纺纱公司和哈撒韦制造公司同意合并他们的业务。在请求股东批准的请求中，这些历史悠久的新英格兰纺织公司对合并寄予厚望。</blockquote></p><p>The Hathaway solicitation, for example, assured its shareholders that “The combination of the resources and managements will result in one of the strongest and most efficient organizations in the textile industry.” That upbeat view was endorsed by the company’s advisor, Lehman Brothers (yes, that Lehman Brothers).</p><p><blockquote>例如，哈撒韦公司的招标向其股东保证，“资源和管理的结合将产生纺织行业最强大、最高效的组织之一。”这种乐观的观点得到了该公司顾问雷曼兄弟（是的，就是雷曼兄弟）的认可。</blockquote></p><p>I’m sure it was a joyous day in both Fall River (Berkshire) and New Bedford (Hathaway) when the union was consummated. After the bands stopped playing and the bankers went home, however, the shareholders reaped a disaster.</p><p><blockquote>我敢肯定，当联盟完成时，福尔里弗（伯克郡）和新贝德福德（哈撒韦）都是欢乐的一天。然而，在乐队停止演奏、银行家们回家后，股东们却收获了一场灾难。</blockquote></p><p>In the nine years following the merger, Berkshire’s owners watched the company’s net worth crater from</p><p><blockquote>在合并后的九年里，伯克希尔的所有者眼睁睁地看着公司的净资产从</blockquote></p><p>$51.4 million to $22.1 million. In part, this decline was caused by stock repurchases, ill-advised dividends and plant shutdowns. But nine years of effort by many thousands of employees delivered an operating loss as well. Berkshire’s struggles were not unusual: The New England textile industry had silently entered an extended and non-reversible death march.</p><p><blockquote>5140万美元至2210万美元。这种下降在一定程度上是由股票回购、不明智的股息和工厂关闭造成的。但数千名员工九年的努力也带来了运营亏损。伯克希尔的挣扎并不罕见：新英格兰纺织业已经悄然进入了漫长且不可逆转的死亡行军。</blockquote></p><p>During the nine post-merger years, the U.S. Treasury suffered as well from Berkshire’s troubles. All told, the company paid the government only $337,359 in income tax during that period – a pathetic $100 per day.</p><p><blockquote>在合并后的九年里，美国财政部也遭受了伯克希尔的麻烦。在此期间，该公司总共只向政府缴纳了337,359美元的所得税——每天只有可怜的100美元。</blockquote></p><p>Early in 1965, things changed. Berkshire installed new management that redeployed available cash and steered essentially all earnings into a variety of good businesses, most of which remained good through the years. Coupling reinvestment of earnings with the power of compounding worked its magic, and shareholders prospered.</p><p><blockquote>1965年初，情况发生了变化。伯克希尔任命了新的管理层，重新部署了可用现金，并将基本上所有收益转移到各种良好的业务中，其中大多数业务多年来一直保持良好状态。将收益再投资与复利的力量结合起来发挥了它的魔力，股东们也因此繁荣起来。</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire’s owners, it should be noted, were not the only beneficiary of that course correction. Their “silent partner,” the U.S. Treasury, proceeded to collect many tens of billions of dollars from the company in income tax payments. Remember the $100 daily? Now, Berkshire pays roughly $9 million daily to the Treasury.</p><p><blockquote>应该指出的是，伯克希尔的所有者并不是这一路线调整的唯一受益者。他们的“沉默伙伴”，美国财政部，继续从该公司收取数百亿美元的所得税。还记得每天100美元吗？现在，伯克希尔每天向财政部支付大约900万美元。</blockquote></p><p>In fairness to our governmental partner, our shareholders should acknowledge – indeed trumpet – the fact that Berkshire’s prosperity has been fostered mightily because the company has operated in America. Our country would have done splendidly in the years since 1965 without Berkshire. Absent our American home, however, Berkshire would never have come close to becoming what it is today. When you see the flag, say thanks.</p><p><blockquote>为我们的政府合作伙伴说句公道话，我们的股东应该承认——事实上是鼓吹——这样一个事实：伯克希尔的繁荣得到了极大的促进，因为该公司在美国运营。如果没有伯克希尔，我们的国家在1965年以来的几年里会做得非常出色。然而，如果没有我们的美国家园，伯克希尔永远不会成为今天的样子。当你看到旗子时，说声谢谢。</blockquote></p><p>• From an $8.6 million purchase of National Indemnity in 1967, Berkshire has become the world leader in insurance “float” – money we hold and can invest but that does not belong to us. Including a relatively small sum derived from life insurance, Berkshire’s total float has grown from $19 million when we entered the insurance business to $147 billion.</p><p><blockquote>1967年，伯克希尔斥资860万美元收购了美国国家赔偿公司（National Indemnity），如今已成为保险“浮动”（float）领域的全球领导者——我们持有并可以投资但不属于我们的资金。包括来自人寿保险的相对较小的金额在内，伯克希尔的总流通量已从我们进入保险业务时的1900万美元增长到1470亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>So far, this float has cost us less than nothing. Though we have experienced a number of years when insurance losses combined with operating expenses exceeded premiums, overall we have earned a modest 55-year profit from the underwriting activities that generated our float.</p><p><blockquote>到目前为止，这辆彩车让我们付出了不到一分钱的代价。尽管我们经历了多年保险损失加上运营费用超过保费的情况，但总体而言，我们从产生流通量的承保活动中获得了55年的适度利润。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Of equal importance, float is very sticky. Funds attributable to our insurance operations come and go daily, but their aggregate total is immune from precipitous decline. When it comes to investing float, we can therefore think long-term.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是，浮子非常粘。归属于我们保险业务的资金每天来来去去，但其总额不会急剧下降。因此，在投资流通量时，我们可以从长计议。</blockquote></p><p>If you are not already familiar with the concept of float, I refer you to a long explanation on page A-5. To my surprise, our float increased $9 billion last year, a buildup of value that is important to Berkshire owners though is not reflected in our GAAP (“generally-accepted accounting principles”) presentation of earnings and net worth.</p><p><blockquote>如果你还不熟悉浮点的概念，我建议你参考A-5页的长篇解释。令我惊讶的是，我们的流通量去年增加了90亿美元，这一价值的积累对伯克希尔所有者来说很重要，但并未反映在我们的GAAP（“公认会计原则”）收益和净值列报中。</blockquote></p><p>Much of our huge value creation in insurance is attributable to Berkshire’s good luck in my 1986 hiring of Ajit Jain. We first met on a Saturday morning, and I quickly asked Ajit what his insurance experience had been. He replied, “None.”</p><p><blockquote>我们在保险业创造的巨大价值很大程度上要归功于伯克希尔的好运，我在1986年聘请了阿吉特·贾恩。我们第一次见面是在一个周六的早上，我很快问阿吉特他的保险经历是什么。他回答说：“没有。”</blockquote></p><p>I said, “Nobody’s perfect,” and hired him. That was my lucky day: Ajit actually was as perfect a choice as could have been made. Better yet, he continues to be – 35 years later.</p><p><blockquote>我说，“人无完人”，就雇了他。那是我的幸运日：阿吉特实际上是一个完美的选择。更好的是，35年后，他仍然是。</blockquote></p><p>One final thought about insurance: I believe that it is likely – but far from assured – that Berkshire’s float can be maintained without our incurring a long-term underwriting loss. I am certain, however, that there will be some years when we experience such losses, perhaps involving very large sums.</p><p><blockquote>关于保险的最后一个想法：我相信伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的流通股很可能——但远不能确定——能够在不遭受长期承保损失的情况下维持下去。然而，我确信，我们将在未来几年经历这种损失，可能涉及非常大的金额。</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire is constructed to handle catastrophic events as no other insurer – and that priority will remain long after Charlie and I are gone.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔在处理灾难性事件方面的能力与其他保险公司不同——在查理和我离开后很长一段时间内，这一优先事项仍将继续存在。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Our Four Giants</h2>Through Berkshire, our shareholders own many dozens of businesses. Some of these, in turn, have a collection of subsidiaries of their own. For example, Marmon has more than 100 individual business operations, ranging from the leasing of railroad cars to the manufacture of medical devices.</p><p><blockquote><h2>我们的四大巨头</h2>通过伯克希尔，我们的股东拥有数十家企业。反过来，其中一些又有自己的子公司。例如，Marmon拥有100多项个体业务，从铁路车辆租赁到医疗设备制造。</blockquote></p><p>• Nevertheless, operations of our “Big Four” companies account for a very large chunk of Berkshire’s value. Leading this list is our cluster of insurers. Berkshire effectively owns 100% of this group, whose massive float value we earlier described. The invested assets of these insurers are further enlarged by the extraordinary amount of capital we invest to back up their promises.</p><p><blockquote>·尽管如此，我们的“四大”公司的运营在伯克希尔的价值中占了非常大的一块。领先的是我们的保险公司集群。伯克希尔实际上拥有该集团100%的股份，其巨大的流通价值我们之前描述过。我们为支持这些保险公司的承诺而投入的大量资本进一步扩大了这些保险公司的投资资产。</blockquote></p><p>The insurance business is made to order for Berkshire. The product will never be obsolete, and sales volume will generally increase along with both economic growth and inflation. Also, integrity and capital will forever be important. Our company can and will behave well.</p><p><blockquote>保险业务是为伯克希尔定制的。该产品永远不会过时，销量通常会随着经济增长和通货膨胀而增加。此外，诚信和资本永远很重要。我们公司能够也将会表现良好。</blockquote></p><p>There are, of course, other insurers with excellent business models and prospects. Replication of Berkshire’s operation, however, would be almost impossible.</p><p><blockquote>当然，还有其他保险公司拥有出色的商业模式和前景。然而，复制伯克希尔的运作几乎是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p>• Apple – our runner-up Giant as measured by its yearend market value – is a different sort of holding. Here, our ownership is a mere 5.55%, up from 5.39% a year earlier. That increase sounds like small potatoes. But consider that each 0.1% of Apple’s 2021 earnings amounted to $100 million. We spent no Berkshire funds to gain our accretion. Apple’s repurchases did the job.</p><p><blockquote>·苹果——以年终市值衡量，它是我们的第二大巨头——是一种不同的持股类型。在这里，我们的持股比例仅为5.55%，高于一年前的5.39%。这种增长听起来像是小事。但考虑到苹果2021年盈利的0.1%总计1亿美元。我们没有花费伯克希尔的资金来获得我们的增长。苹果的回购起到了作用。</blockquote></p><p>It’s important to understand that only dividends from Apple are counted in the GAAP earnings Berkshire reports – and last year, Apple paid us $785 million of those. Yet our “share” of Apple’s earnings amounted to a staggering $5.6 billion. Much of what the company retained was used to repurchase Apple shares, an act we applaud. Tim Cook, Apple’s brilliant CEO, quite properly regards users of Apple products as his first love, but all of his other constituencies benefit from Tim’s managerial touch as well.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是要明白，伯克希尔的GAAP收益报告中只有苹果的股息被计算在内——去年，苹果支付了其中的7.85亿美元。然而，我们在苹果收益中的“份额”达到了惊人的56亿美元。该公司保留的大部分资金用于回购苹果股票，我们对此表示赞赏。苹果杰出的首席执行官蒂姆·库克（Tim Cook）非常恰当地将苹果产品的用户视为他的初恋，但他的所有其他支持者也受益于蒂姆的管理风格。</blockquote></p><p>• BNSF, our third Giant, continues to be the number one artery of American commerce, which makes it an indispensable asset for America as well as for Berkshire. If the many essential products BNSF carries were instead hauled by truck, America’s carbon emissions would soar.</p><p><blockquote>•我们的第三大巨头BNSF仍然是美国商业的头号动脉，这使它成为美国和伯克希尔不可或缺的资产。如果BNSF运输的许多基本产品改为用卡车运输，美国的碳排放量将会飙升。</blockquote></p><p>Your railroad had record earnings of $6 billion in 2021. Here, it should be noted, we are talking about the old-fashioned sort of earnings that we favor: a figure calculated after interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and all forms of compensation. (Our definition suggests a warning: Deceptive “adjustments” to earnings – to use a polite description – have become both more frequent and more fanciful as stocks have risen. Speaking less politely, I would say that bull markets breed bloviated bull )</p><p><blockquote>你们的铁路在2021年的收入达到了创纪录的60亿美元。这里应该指出的是，我们谈论的是我们喜欢的老式收入：扣除利息、税收、折旧、摊销和所有形式的补偿后计算的数字。（我们的定义暗示了一个警告：随着股市上涨，欺骗性的盈利“调整”——用礼貌的描述——变得越来越频繁，也越来越异想天开。不那么礼貌地说，我会说牛市滋生了混乱的牛市）</blockquote></p><p>BNSF trains traveled 143 million miles last year and carried 535 million tons of cargo. Both accomplishments far exceed those of any other American carrier. You can be proud of your railroad.</p><p><blockquote>BNSF列车去年行驶了1.43亿英里，运载了5.35亿吨货物。这两项成就都远远超过了任何其他美国航空公司。你可以为你的铁路感到骄傲。</blockquote></p><p>• BHE, our final Giant, earned a record $4 billion in 2021. That’s up more than 30-fold from the $122 million earned in 2000, the year that Berkshire first purchased a BHE stake. Now, Berkshire owns 91.1% of the company.</p><p><blockquote>•我们最后的巨头BHE在2021年赚了创纪录的40亿美元。这比2000年（伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首次购买BHE股份的那一年）的1.22亿美元收入增长了30多倍。现在，伯克希尔拥有该公司91.1%的股份。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>BHE’s record of societal accomplishment is as remarkable as its financial performance. The company had no wind or solar generation in 2000. It was then regarded simply as a relatively new and minor participant in the huge electric utility industry. Subsequently, under David Sokol’s and Greg Abel’s leadership, BHE has become a utility powerhouse (no groaning, please) and a leading force in wind, solar and transmission throughout much of the United States.</p><p><blockquote>BHE的社会成就记录与其财务表现一样引人注目。该公司在2000年没有风能或太阳能发电。当时，它只是被视为庞大的电力行业中一个相对较新的次要参与者。随后，在David Sokol和Greg Abel的领导下，BHE已成为一家公用事业巨头（请不要呻吟）以及美国大部分地区风能、太阳能和输电领域的主导力量。</blockquote></p><p>Greg’s report on these accomplishments appears on pages A-3 and A-4. The profile you will find there is not in any way one of those currently-fashionable “green-washing” stories. BHE has been faithfully detailing its plans and performance in renewables and transmissions every year since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>格雷格关于这些成就的报告出现在A-3和A-4页。你会在那里找到的简介绝不是那些当前流行的“洗绿”故事。自2007年以来，BHE每年都忠实地详细介绍其在可再生能源和输电方面的计划和业绩。</blockquote></p><p>To further review this information, visit BHE’s website at brkenergy.com. There, you will see that the company has long been making climate-conscious moves that soak up all of its earnings. More opportunities lie ahead. BHE has the management, the experience, the capital and the appetite for the huge power projects that our country needs.</p><p><blockquote>要进一步查看这些信息，请访问BHE在brkenergy.com的网站。在那里，你会看到该公司长期以来一直在采取气候意识举措，吸收了其所有收益。更多的机会就在前方。BHE拥有我国所需的管理、经验、资金和巨大电力项目的胃口。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Investments</h2>Now let’s talk about companies we don’t control, a list that again references Apple. Below we list our fifteen largest equity holdings, several of which are selections of Berkshire’s two long-time investment managers, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. At yearend, this valued pair had total authority in respect to $34 billion of investments, many of which do not meet the threshold value we use in the table. Also, a significant portion of the dollars that Todd and Ted manage are lodged in various pension plans of Berkshire-owned businesses, with the assets of these plans not included in this table.</p><p><blockquote><h2>投资</h2>现在让我们谈谈我们不控制的公司，这份名单再次提到了苹果。下面我们列出了我们持有的15只最大的股票，其中几只是伯克希尔的两位长期投资经理托德·库姆斯和特德·韦施勒的精选。截至年底，这对有价值的投资拥有340亿美元投资的总权限，其中许多投资不符合我们在表中使用的阈值。此外，托德和特德管理的很大一部分资金存入伯克希尔旗下企业的各种养老金计划，这些计划的资产不包括在本表中。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d43587e9f59c0ff76e6c04c6bf9af324\" tg-width=\"1047\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/>* This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis.</p><p><blockquote>*这是我们的实际购买价格，也是我们的计税基础。</blockquote></p><p>** Held by BHE; consequently, Berkshire shareholders have only a 91.1% interest in this position.</p><p><blockquote>**由BHE持有；因此，伯克希尔股东在该职位上仅拥有91.1%的权益。</blockquote></p><p>*** Includes a $10 billion investment in Occidental Petroleum, consisting of preferred stock and warrants to buy common stock, a combination now being valued at $10.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>***包括对西方石油公司100亿美元的投资，包括优先股和购买普通股的认股权证，目前这一组合的价值为107亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>In addition to the footnoted Occidental holding and our various common-stock positions, Berkshire also owns a 26.6% interest in Kraft Heinz (accounted for on the “equity” method, not market value, and carried at $13.1 billion) and 38.6% of Pilot Corp., a leader in travel centers that had revenues last year of $45 billion.</p><p><blockquote>除了脚注中提到的Occidental holding和我们的各种普通股头寸之外，Berkshire还拥有卡夫亨氏26.6%的权益（按“权益”法核算，而不是市值，账面价值为131亿美元）和Pilot Corp.38.6%的权益，Pilot Corp.是旅游中心的领导者，去年的收入为450亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Since we purchased our Pilot stake in 2017, this holding has warranted “equity” accounting treatment. Early in 2023, Berkshire will purchase an additional interest in Pilot that will raise our ownership to 80% and lead to our fully consolidating Pilot’s earnings, assets and liabilities in our financial statements.</p><p><blockquote>自从我们在2017年购买了我们的试点股份以来，这种持股已经保证了“权益”会计处理。2023年初，伯克希尔将购买Pilot的额外权益，这将使我们的所有权提高到80%，并使我们在财务报表中完全合并Pilot的收益、资产和负债。</blockquote></p><p><h2>U.S. Treasury Bills</h2>Berkshire’s balance sheet includes $144 billion of cash and cash equivalents (excluding the holdings of BNSF and BHE). Of this sum, $120 billion is held in U.S. Treasury bills, all maturing in less than a year. That stake leaves Berkshire financing about 12 of 1% of the publicly-held national debt.</p><p><blockquote><h2>美国国库券</h2>伯克希尔的资产负债表包括1440亿美元的现金和现金等价物（不包括持有的BNSF和BHE）。其中，1200亿美元是美国国库券，全部在不到一年的时间内到期。这些股份使伯克希尔哈撒韦公司为公共持有的国债的1%中的约12提供融资。</blockquote></p><p>Charlie and I have pledged that Berkshire (along with our subsidiaries other than BNSF and BHE) will always hold more than $30 billion of cash and equivalents. We want your company to be financially impregnable and never dependent on the kindness of strangers (or even that of friends). Both of us like to sleep soundly, and we want our creditors, insurance claimants and you to do so as well.</p><p><blockquote>查理和我承诺，伯克希尔（连同我们除BNSF和BHE之外的子公司）将始终持有超过300亿美元的现金和等价物。我们希望你的公司在财务上坚不可摧，永远不要依赖陌生人（甚至朋友）的善意。我们都喜欢睡得很香，我们希望我们的债权人、保险索赔人和你也这样做。</blockquote></p><p><h2>But $144 billion?</h2>That imposing sum, I assure you, is not some deranged expression of patriotism. Nor have Charlie and I lost our overwhelming preference for business ownership. Indeed, I first manifested my enthusiasm for that 80 years ago, on March 11, 1942, when I purchased three shares of Cities Services preferred stock. Their cost was $114.75 and required all of my savings. (The Dow Jones Industrial Average that day closed at 99, a fact that should scream to you: Never bet against America.)</p><p><blockquote><h2>但是1440亿美元？</h2>我向你保证，这笔巨额资金并不是某种疯狂的爱国主义表达。查理和我也没有失去对企业所有权的压倒性偏好。事实上，80年前的1942年3月11日，我第一次表现出了我对此的热情，当时我购买了三股城市服务公司的优先股。它们的成本是114.75美元，需要我所有的积蓄。（道琼斯工业平均指数当天收于99点，这个事实应该让你尖叫：永远不要做空美国。）</blockquote></p><p>After my initial plunge, I always kept at least 80% of my net worth in equities. My favored status throughout that period was 100% – and still is. Berkshire’s current 80%-or-so position in businesses is a consequence of my failure to find entire companies or small portions thereof (that is, marketable stocks) which meet our criteria for long- term holding.</p><p><blockquote>在我最初的暴跌之后，我总是将至少80%的净资产投资于股票。在那段时间里，我最喜欢的状态是100%——现在仍然如此。伯克希尔目前80%左右的企业头寸是我未能找到符合我们长期持有标准的整个公司或其中一小部分（即有价证券）的结果。</blockquote></p><p>Charlie and I have endured similar cash-heavy positions from time to time in the past. These periods are never pleasant; they are also never permanent. And, fortunately, we have had a mildly attractive alternative during 2020 and 2021 for deploying capital. Read on.</p><p><blockquote>查理和我过去也不时经历过类似的现金密集型头寸。这些时期从来都不愉快；它们也不是永久的。幸运的是，我们在2020年和2021年期间有一个稍微有吸引力的资本部署替代方案。继续读下去。</blockquote></p><p></p><p><h2>Share Repurchases</h2>There are three ways that we can increase the value of your investment. The first is always front and center in our minds: Increase the long-term earning power of Berkshire’s controlled businesses through internal growth or by making acquisitions. Today, internal opportunities deliver far better returns than acquisitions. The size of those opportunities, however, is small compared to Berkshire’s resources.</p><p><blockquote><h2>股份购回</h2>我们有三种方法可以增加您的投资价值。第一个始终是我们最关心的问题：通过内部增长或收购来提高伯克希尔控制业务的长期盈利能力。如今，内部机会比收购带来更好的回报。然而，与伯克希尔的资源相比，这些机会的规模很小。</blockquote></p><p>Our second choice is to buy non-controlling part-interests in the many good or great businesses that are publicly traded. From time to time, such possibilities are both numerous and blatantly attractive. Today, though, we find little that excites us.</p><p><blockquote>我们的第二个选择是购买许多公开交易的优秀或伟大企业的非控股部分权益。有时，这样的可能性既众多又极具吸引力。然而今天，我们很少发现让我们兴奋的东西。</blockquote></p><p>That’s largely because of a truism: Long-term interest rates that are low push the prices of all productive investments upward, whether these are stocks, apartments, farms, oil wells, whatever. Other factors influence valuations as well, but interest rates will always be important.</p><p><blockquote>这在很大程度上是因为一个不言而喻的事实：低长期利率会推高所有生产性投资的价格，无论是股票、公寓、农场、油井等等。其他因素也会影响估值，但利率始终很重要。</blockquote></p><p>Our final path to value creation is to repurchase Berkshire shares. Through that simple act, we increase your share of the many controlled and non-controlled businesses Berkshire owns. When the price/value equation is right, this path is the easiest and most certain way for us to increase your wealth. (Alongside the accretion of value to continuing shareholders, a couple of other parties gain: Repurchases are modestly beneficial to the seller of the repurchased shares and to society as well.)</p><p><blockquote>我们创造价值的最终途径是回购伯克希尔股票。通过这一简单的行为，我们增加了您在伯克希尔拥有的许多受控和非受控业务中的份额。当价格/价值等式正确时，这条路径是我们增加您财富的最简单、最确定的方式。（除了持续股东的价值增加之外，其他一些人也会受益：回购对回购股票的卖方和社会都有适度的好处。）</blockquote></p><p>Periodically, as alternative paths become unattractive, repurchases make good sense for Berkshire’s owners. During the past two years, we therefore repurchased 9% of the shares that were outstanding at yearend 2019 for a total cost of $51.7 billion. That expenditure left our continuing shareholders owning about 10% more of all Berkshire businesses, whether these are wholly-owned (such as BNSF and GEICO) or partly-owned (such as Coca-Cola and Moody’s).</p><p><blockquote>周期性地，随着替代路径变得没有吸引力，回购对伯克希尔的所有者来说是有意义的。因此，在过去两年中，我们回购了2019年底已发行股票的9%，总成本为517亿美元。这笔支出使我们的持续股东拥有伯克希尔所有业务约10%的股份，无论这些业务是全资拥有的（如BNSF和GEICO）还是部分拥有的（如可口可乐和穆迪）。</blockquote></p><p>I want to underscore that for Berkshire repurchases to make sense, our shares must offer appropriate value. We don’t want to overpay for the shares of other companies, and it would be value-destroying if we were to overpay when we are buying Berkshire. As of February 23, 2022, since yearend we repurchased additional shares at a cost of $1.2 billion. Our appetite remains large but will always remain price-dependent.</p><p><blockquote>我想强调的是，为了让伯克希尔的回购有意义，我们的股票必须提供适当的价值。我们不想为其他公司的股票支付过高的价格，如果我们在购买伯克希尔时支付过高的价格，那将是对价值的破坏。截至2022年2月23日，自年底以来，我们以12亿美元的成本回购了额外股票。我们的胃口仍然很大，但将始终取决于价格。</blockquote></p><p>It should be noted that Berkshire’s buyback opportunities are limited because of its high-class investor base. If our shares were heavily held by short-term speculators, both price volatility and transaction volumes would materially increase. That kind of reshaping would offer us far greater opportunities for creating value by making repurchases. Nevertheless, Charlie and I far prefer the owners we have, even though their admirable buy-and-keep attitudes limit the extent to which long-term shareholders can profit from opportunistic repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>需要注意的是，伯克希尔的回购机会有限，因为其投资者基础很高。倘我们的股份被短期投机者大量持有，价格波动及交易量将大幅增加。这种重塑将为我们提供更多通过回购创造价值的机会。然而，查理和我更喜欢我们现有的所有者，尽管他们令人钦佩的买入并持有态度限制了长期股东从机会主义回购中获利的程度。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, one easily-overlooked value calculation specific to Berkshire: As we’ve discussed, insurance “float” of the right sort is of great value to us. As it happens, repurchases automatically increase the amount of “float” per share. That figure has increased during the past two years by 25% – going from $79,387 per “A” share to $99,497, a meaningful gain that, as noted, owes some thanks to repurchases.</p><p><blockquote>最后，一个容易被忽视的伯克希尔特有的价值计算：正如我们已经讨论过的，正确类型的保险“浮动”对我们来说非常有价值。碰巧的是，回购会自动增加每股的“流通量”。这一数字在过去两年中增长了25%，从每股“A”股79,387美元增至99,497美元，如前所述，这一有意义的涨幅在一定程度上要归功于回购。</blockquote></p><p><h2>A Wonderful Man and a Wonderful Business</h2>Last year, Paul Andrews died. Paul was the founder and CEO of TTI, a Fort Worth-based subsidiary of Berkshire. Throughout his life – in both his business and his personal pursuits – Paul quietly displayed all the qualities that Charlie and I admire. His story should be told.</p><p><blockquote><h2>一个了不起的人和一个了不起的企业</h2>去年，保罗·安德鲁斯去世了。保罗是伯克希尔哈撒韦公司位于沃思堡的子公司TTI的创始人兼首席执行官。在他的一生中——在他的事业和个人追求中——保罗悄悄地展示了查理和我所钦佩的所有品质。他的故事应该被讲述。</blockquote></p><p>In 1971, Paul was working as a purchasing agent for General Dynamics when the roof fell in. After losing a huge defense contract, the company fired thousands of employees, including Paul.</p><p><blockquote>1971年，当屋顶倒塌时，保罗正在通用动力公司担任采购代理。在失去一份巨额国防合同后，该公司解雇了数千名员工，其中包括保罗。</blockquote></p><p>With his first child due soon, Paul decided to bet on himself, using $500 of his savings to found Tex-Tronics (later renamed TTI). The company set itself up to distribute small electronic components, and first-year sales totaled $112,000. Today, TTI markets more than one million different items with annual volume of $7.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>随着他的第一个孩子即将出生，保罗决定把赌注押在自己身上，用他的500美元积蓄创办了Tex-Tronics（后来更名为TTI）。该公司致力于分销小型电子元件，第一年的销售额总计112,000美元。如今，创科实业销售超过100万种不同的产品，年销售额达77亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>But back to 2006: Paul, at 63, then found himself happy with his family, his job, and his associates. But he had one nagging worry, heightened because he had recently witnessed a friend’s early death and the disastrous results that followed for that man’s family and business. What, Paul asked himself in 2006, would happen to the many people depending on him if he should unexpectedly die?</p><p><blockquote>但回到2006年：63岁的保罗发现自己对家庭、工作和同事都很满意。但他有一个挥之不去的担忧，因为他最近目睹了一个朋友的早逝以及随之而来的对那个人的家庭和生意的灾难性后果，这种担忧加剧了。保罗在2006年问自己，如果他意外去世，许多依赖他的人会怎么样？</blockquote></p><p>For a year, Paul wrestled with his options. Sell to a competitor? From a strictly economic viewpoint, that course made the most sense. After all, competitors could envision lucrative “synergies” – savings that would be achieved as the acquiror slashed duplicated functions at TTI.</p><p><blockquote>一年来，保罗一直在纠结自己的选择。卖给竞争对手？从严格的经济角度来看，这个过程是最有意义的。毕竟，竞争对手可以设想利润丰厚的“协同效应”——随着收购方削减TTI的重复职能，将实现节省。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>But . . . Such a purchaser would most certainly also retain its CFO, its legal counsel, its HR unit. Their TTI counterparts would therefore be sent packing. And ugh! If a new distribution center were to be needed, the acquirer’s home city would certainly be favored over Fort Worth.</p><p><blockquote>但是...这样的购买者肯定还会保留其首席财务官、法律顾问和人力资源部门。因此，他们的TTI同行将被打包发送。还有啊！如果需要一个新的配送中心，收购方的家乡城市肯定会比沃思堡更受青睐。</blockquote></p><p>Whatever the financial benefits, Paul quickly concluded that selling to a competitor was not for him. He next considered seeking a financial buyer, a species once labeled – aptly so – a leveraged buyout firm. Paul knew, however, that such a purchaser would be focused on an “exit strategy.” And who could know what that would be? Brooding over it all, Paul found himself having no interest in handing his 35-year-old creation over to a reseller.</p><p><blockquote>不管经济利益如何，保罗很快得出结论，卖给竞争对手不适合他。接下来，他考虑寻找一家金融买家，这种买家曾经被恰当地称为杠杆收购公司。然而，保罗知道这样的买家会专注于“退出策略”。谁知道那会是什么？考虑到这一切，保罗发现自己没有兴趣将他35岁的创作交给经销商。</blockquote></p><p>When Paul met me, he explained why he had eliminated these two alternatives as buyers. He then summed up his dilemma by saying – in far more tactful phrasing than this – “After a year of pondering the alternatives, I want to sell to Berkshire because you are the only guy left.” So, I made an offer and Paul said “Yes.” One meeting; one lunch; one deal.</p><p><blockquote>当保罗见到我时，他解释了为什么他作为买家排除了这两种选择。然后，他用比这更委婉的措辞总结了自己的困境：“经过一年的思考，我想把它卖给伯克希尔，因为你是唯一剩下的人。”所以，我提出了一个提议，保罗答应了。一次会议；一顿午餐；一笔交易。</blockquote></p><p>To say we both lived happily ever after is an understatement. When Berkshire purchased TTI, the company employed 2,387. Now the number is 8,043. A large percentage of that growth took place in Fort Worth and environs. Earnings have increased 673%.</p><p><blockquote>说我们从此过上了幸福的生活是一种保守的说法。当伯克希尔收购TTI时，该公司拥有2,387名员工。现在这个数字是8043。其中很大一部分增长发生在沃思堡及周边地区。盈利增长了673%。</blockquote></p><p>Annually, I would call Paul and tell him his salary should be substantially increased. Annually, he would tell me, “We can talk about that next year, Warren; I’m too busy now.”</p><p><blockquote>每年，我都会给保罗发看涨期权，告诉他他的薪水应该大幅增加。每年，他都会告诉我，“我们可以明年再谈这个，沃伦，我现在太忙了。”</blockquote></p><p>When Greg Abel and I attended Paul’s memorial service, we met children, grandchildren, long-time associates (including TTI’s first employee) and John Roach, the former CEO of a Fort Worth company Berkshire had purchased in 2000. John had steered his friend Paul to Omaha, instinctively knowing we would be a match.</p><p><blockquote>当格雷格·阿贝尔和我参加保罗的追悼会时，我们见到了孩子、孙子、长期合作伙伴（包括创科实业的第一位员工）和约翰·罗奇，他是伯克希尔2000年收购的沃斯堡一家公司的前首席执行官。约翰带着他的朋友保罗去了奥马哈，本能地知道我们会是一对。</blockquote></p><p>At the service, Greg and I heard about the multitudes of people and organizations that Paul had silently supported. The breadth of his generosity was extraordinary – geared always to improving the lives of others, particularly those in Fort Worth.</p><p><blockquote>在仪式上，格雷格和我听说了保罗默默支持的许多人和组织。他的慷慨是非凡的——总是致力于改善他人的生活，尤其是那些在沃思堡的人。</blockquote></p><p>In all ways, Paul was a class act.</p><p><blockquote>从各方面来看，保罗都是一流的。</blockquote></p><p>* * * * * * * * * * * *</p><p><blockquote>**</blockquote></p><p>Good luck – occasionally extraordinary luck – has played its part at Berkshire. If Paul and I had not enjoyed a mutual friend – John Roach – TTI would not have found its home with us. But that ample serving of luck was only the beginning. TTI was soon to lead Berkshire to its most important acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>好运——偶尔是非凡的运气——在伯克希尔发挥了作用。如果保罗和我没有一个共同的朋友——约翰·罗奇——TTI就不会在我们身边找到它的家。但是这种充足的运气仅仅是个开始。TTI很快就带领伯克希尔完成了其最重要的收购。</blockquote></p><p>Every fall, Berkshire directors gather for a presentation by a few of our executives. We sometimes choose the site based upon the location of a recent acquisition, by that means allowing directors to meet the new subsidiary’s CEO and learn more about the acquiree’s activities.</p><p><blockquote>每年秋天，伯克希尔的董事们都会聚集在一起，听取我们几位高管的演讲。我们有时会根据最近收购的地点来选择地点，这样可以让董事会见新子公司的首席执行官，并更多地了解被收购方的活动。</blockquote></p><p>In the fall of 2009, we consequently selected Fort Worth so that we could visit TTI. At that time, BNSF, which also had Fort Worth as its hometown, was the third-largest holding among our marketable equities. Despite that large stake, I had never visited the railroad’s headquarters.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在2009年秋天，我们选择了沃思堡，这样我们就可以参观TTI。当时，BNSF的家乡也是沃思堡，是我们有价证券中的第三大持股。尽管有这么大的股份，我从未去过铁路总部。</blockquote></p><p>Deb Bosanek, my assistant, scheduled our board’s opening dinner for October 22. Meanwhile, I arranged to arrive earlier that day to meet with Matt Rose, CEO of BNSF, whose accomplishments I had long admired. When I made the date, I had no idea that our get-together would coincide with BNSF’s third-quarter earnings report, which was released late on the 22nd.</p><p><blockquote>我的助手Deb Bosanek将我们董事会的开幕晚宴安排在10月22日。与此同时，我安排当天早些时候到达，会见BNSF首席执行官马特·罗斯，他的成就我长期以来一直钦佩。当我确定这个日期时，我不知道我们的聚会会恰逢BNSF于22日晚些时候发布的第三季度收益报告。</blockquote></p><p>The market reacted badly to the railroad’s results. The Great Recession was in full force in the third quarter, and BNSF’s earnings reflected that slump. The economic outlook was also bleak, and Wall Street wasn’t feeling friendly to railroads – or much else.</p><p><blockquote>市场对铁路公司的业绩反应不佳。大衰退在第三季度全面爆发，BNSF的盈利反映了这种下滑。经济前景也很黯淡，华尔街对铁路或其他许多行业都不太友好。</blockquote></p><p>On the following day, I again got together with Matt and suggested that Berkshire would offer the railroad a better long-term home than it could expect as a public company. I also told him the maximum price that Berkshire would pay.</p><p><blockquote>第二天，我再次和马特聚在一起，建议伯克希尔为铁路公司提供一个比上市公司更好的长期住所。我还告诉了他伯克希尔愿意支付的最高价格。</blockquote></p><p>Matt relayed the offer to his directors and advisors. Eleven busy days later, Berkshire and BNSF announced a firm deal. And here I’ll venture a rare prediction: BNSF will be a key asset for Berkshire and our country a century from now.</p><p><blockquote>马特向他的董事和顾问转达了这一提议。忙碌了11天后，伯克希尔和BNSF宣布了一项确定的交易。在这里，我大胆地做一个罕见的预测：一个世纪后，BNSF将成为伯克希尔和我们国家的关键资产。</blockquote></p><p>The BNSF acquisition would never have happened if Paul Andrews hadn’t sized up Berkshire as the right home for TTI.</p><p><blockquote>如果保罗·安德鲁斯(Paul Andrews)没有将伯克希尔视为TTI的合适住所，BNSF的收购永远不会发生。</blockquote></p><p><h2>Thanks</h2>I taught my first investing class 70 years ago. Since then, I have enjoyed working almost every year with students of all ages, finally “retiring” from that pursuit in 2018.</p><p><blockquote><h2>谢谢</h2>70年前，我教了我的第一堂投资课。从那以后，我几乎每年都喜欢和各个年龄段的学生一起工作，最终在2018年从这种追求中“退休”。</blockquote></p><p>Along the way, my toughest audience was my grandson’s fifth-grade class. The 11-year-olds were squirming in their seats and giving me blank stares until I mentioned Coca-Cola and its famous secret formula. Instantly, every hand went up, and I learned that “secrets” are catnip to kids.</p><p><blockquote>一路上，我最难对付的观众是我孙子五年级的班级。11岁的孩子们在座位上蠕动，茫然地看着我，直到我提到可口可乐和它著名的秘密配方。立刻，每个人都举起了手，我明白了“秘密”对孩子们来说是猫薄荷。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Teaching, like writing, has helped me develop and clarify my own thoughts. Charlie calls this phenomenon the orangutan effect: If you sit down with an orangutan and carefully explain to it one of your cherished ideas, you may leave behind a puzzled primate, but will yourself exit thinking more clearly.</p><p><blockquote>教学和写作一样，帮助我发展和理清了自己的思想。查理·评级这种现象猩猩效应：如果你和一只猩猩坐下来，仔细地向它解释你珍视的一个想法，你可能会留下一只困惑的灵长类动物，但你自己会更清楚地思考吗？</blockquote></p><p>Talking to university students is far superior. I have urged that they seek employment in (1) the field and (2) with the kind of people they would select, if they had no need for money. Economic realities, I acknowledge, may interfere with that kind of search. Even so, I urge the students never to give up the quest, for when they find that sort of job, they will no longer be “working.”</p><p><blockquote>和大学生说话要优越得多。我敦促他们在（1）这个领域和（2）如果他们不需要钱，他们会选择的那种人那里找工作。我承认，经济现实可能会干扰这种搜索。即便如此，我敦促学生们永远不要放弃追求，因为当他们找到那种工作时，他们将不再是“工作”。</blockquote></p><p>Charlie and I, ourselves, followed that liberating course after a few early stumbles. We both started as part- timers at my grandfather’s grocery store, Charlie in 1940 and I in 1942. We were each assigned boring tasks and paid little, definitely not what we had in mind. Charlie later took up law, and I tried selling securities. Job satisfaction continued to elude us.</p><p><blockquote>查理和我，我们自己，在经历了一些早期的挫折后，走上了解放的道路。我们都是从我祖父的杂货店兼职开始的，查理是1940年，我是1942年。我们每个人都被分配了无聊的任务，报酬很低，绝对不是我们想要的。查理后来从事法律工作，我尝试出售证券。工作满意度继续困扰着我们。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, at Berkshire, we found what we love to do. With very few exceptions, we have now “worked” for many decades with people whom we like and trust. It’s a joy in life to join with managers such as Paul Andrews or the Berkshire families I told you about last year. In our home office, we employ decent and talented people – no jerks. Turnover averages, perhaps, one person per year.</p><p><blockquote>最后，在伯克希尔，我们找到了自己喜欢做的事情。除了极少数例外，我们现在已经和我们喜欢和信任的人“工作”了几十年。与保罗·安德鲁斯或我去年告诉过你的伯克希尔家族等经理人一起工作是生活中的一种乐趣。在我们的家庭办公室，我们雇佣体面和有才华的人——没有混蛋。平均离职人数可能是每年一人。</blockquote></p><p>I would like, however, to emphasize a further item that turns our jobs into fun and satisfaction working</p><p><blockquote>然而，我想强调另一个项目，它将我们的工作变成有趣和令人满意的工作</blockquote></p><p>for you. There is nothing more rewarding to Charlie and me than enjoying the trust of individual long-term shareholders who, for many decades, have joined us with the expectation that we would be a reliable custodian of their funds.</p><p><blockquote>为了你。对查理和我来说，没有什么比享受个人长期股东的信任更有意义的了，几十年来，他们加入我们的期望是我们将成为他们资金的可靠托管人。</blockquote></p><p>Obviously, we can’t select our owners, as we could do if our form of operation were a partnership. Anyone can buy shares of Berkshire today with the intention of soon reselling them. For sure, we get a few of that type of shareholder, just as we get index funds that own huge amounts of Berkshire simply because they are required to do so.</p><p><blockquote>显然，我们不能选择我们的所有者，如果我们的运营形式是合伙企业，我们可以这样做。任何人今天都可以购买伯克希尔的股票，并打算很快转售。当然，我们有一些此类股东，就像我们有指数基金持有大量伯克希尔哈撒韦公司股票一样，因为它们被要求这样做。</blockquote></p><p>To a truly unusual degree, however, Berkshire has as owners a very large corps of individuals and families that have elected to join us with an intent approaching “til death do us part.” Often, they have trusted us with a large – some might say excessive – portion of their savings.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在一个真正不寻常的程度上，伯克希尔拥有一大批个人和家庭作为所有者，他们选择加入我们，意图是“直到死亡将我们分开”。通常，他们把很大一部分——有些人可能会说是过多的——储蓄托付给我们。</blockquote></p><p>Berkshire, these shareholders would sometimes acknowledge, might be far from the best selection they could have made. But they would add that Berkshire would rank high among those with which they would be most comfortable. And people who are comfortable with their investments will, on average, achieve better results than those who are motivated by ever-changing headlines, chatter and promises.</p><p><blockquote>这些股东有时会承认，伯克希尔可能远不是他们所能做出的最佳选择。但他们会补充说，伯克希尔将在他们最满意的公司中排名靠前。平均而言，对自己的投资感到满意的人会比那些被不断变化的头条新闻、喋喋不休和承诺所激励的人取得更好的结果。</blockquote></p><p>Long-term individual owners are both the “partners” Charlie and I have always sought and the ones we constantly have in mind as we make decisions at Berkshire. To them we say, “It feels good to ‘work’ for you, and you have our thanks for your trust.”</p><p><blockquote>长期个人所有者既是查理和我一直在寻找的“合作伙伴”，也是我们在伯克希尔做决策时一直牢记的“合作伙伴”。我们对他们说：“为你们‘工作’的感觉真好，我们感谢你们的信任。”</blockquote></p><p><h2>The Annual Meeting</h2>Clear your calendar! Berkshire will have its annual gathering of capitalists in Omaha on Friday, April 29th through Sunday, May 1st. The details regarding the weekend are laid out on pages A-1 and A-2. Omaha eagerly awaits you, as do I.</p><p><blockquote><h2>年会</h2>清除您的日历！伯克希尔将于4月29日星期五至5月1日星期日在奥马哈举行年度资本家聚会。关于周末的细节列在A-1和A-2页。奥马哈急切地等待着你，我也是。</blockquote></p><p>I will end this letter with a sales pitch. “Cousin” Jimmy Buffett has designed a pontoon “party” boat that is now being manufactured by Forest River, a Berkshire subsidiary. The boat will be introduced on April 29 at our Berkshire Bazaar of Bargains. And, for two days only, shareholders will be able to purchase Jimmy’s masterpiece at a 10% discount. Your bargain-hunting chairman will be buying a boat for his family’s use. Join me.</p><p><blockquote>我将以推销来结束这封信。“表哥”吉米·巴菲特设计了一艘浮桥“派对”船，现在由伯克希尔旗下的森林河公司制造。这艘船将于4月29日在我们的伯克希尔便宜货市场推出。而且，仅在两天内，股东就可以以10%的折扣购买吉米的杰作。你的便宜货董事长会买一艘船给他的家人使用。加入我。</blockquote></p><p>February 26, 2022</p><p><blockquote>2022年2月26日</blockquote></p><p>Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·E·巴菲特董事会主席</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125580913","content_text":"Warren Buffett released his annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders on Saturday. The 91-year-old investing legend has been publishing the letter for over six decades and it has become required reading for investors around the world.Warren Buffett said he now considers tech giant Apple as one of the four pillars driving Berkshire Hathaway, the conglomerate of mostly old-economy businesses he’s assembled over the last five decades.In his annual letter to shareholders released on Saturday, the 91-year-old investing legend listed Apple under the heading “Our Four Giants” and even called the company the second-most important after Berkshire’s cluster of insurers, thanks to its chief executive.“Tim Cook, Apple’s brilliant CEO, quite properly regards users of Apple products as his first love, but all of his other constituencies benefit from Tim’s managerial touch as well,” the letter stated.Buffett made clear he is a fan of Cook’s stock repurchase strategy, and how it gives the conglomerate increased ownership of each dollar of the iPhone maker’s earnings without the investor having to lift a finger.“Apple – our runner-up Giant as measured by its yearend market value – is a different sort of holding. Here, our ownership is a mere 5.55%, up from 5.39% a year earlier,” Buffett said in the letter. “That increase sounds like small potatoes. But consider that each 0.1% of Apple’s 2021 earnings amounted to $100 million. We spent no Berkshire funds to gain our accretion. Apple’s repurchases did the job.”Berkshire began buying Apple stock in 2016 under the influence of Buffett’s investing deputies Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. By mid-2018, the conglomerate accumulated 5% ownership of the iPhone maker, a stake that cost $36 billion. Today, the Apple investment is now worth more than $160 billion, taking up 40% of Berkshire’s equity portfolio.“It’s important to understand that only dividends from Apple are counted in the GAAP earnings Berkshire reports – and last year, Apple paid us $785 million of those. Yet our ‘share’ of Apple’s earnings amounted to a staggering $5.6 billion. Much of what the company retained was used to repurchase Apple shares, an act we applaud,” Buffett said.Berkshire is Apple’s largest shareholder, outside of index and exchange-traded fund providers.Buffett also credited his railroad business BNSF and energy segment BHE as two other giants of the conglomerate, which both registered record earnings in 2021.“BNSF, our third Giant, continues to be the number one artery of American commerce, which makes it an indispensable asset for America as well as for Berkshire,” Buffett said. “BHE has become a utility powerhouse and a leading force in wind, solar and transmission throughout much of the United States.”Read the full letter here：To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:Charlie Munger, my long-time partner, and I have the job of managing a portion of your savings. We are honored by your trust.Our position carries with it the responsibility to report to you what we would like to know if we were the absentee owner and you were the manager. We enjoy communicating directly with you through this annual letter, and through the annual meeting as well.Our policy is to treat all shareholders equally. Therefore, we do not hold discussions with analysts nor large institutions. Whenever possible, also, we release important communications on Saturday mornings in order to maximize the time for shareholders and the media to absorb the news before markets open on Monday.A wealth of Berkshire facts and figures are set forth in the annual 10-K that the company regularly files with the S.E.C. and that we reproduce on pages K-1 – K-119. Some shareholders will find this detail engrossing; others will simply prefer to learn what Charlie and I believe is new or interesting at Berkshire.Alas, there was little action of that sort in 2021. We did, though, make reasonable progress in increasing the intrinsic value of your shares. That task has been my primary duty for 57 years. And it will continue to be.What You OwnBerkshire owns a wide variety of businesses, some in their entirety, some only in part. The second group largely consists of marketable common stocks of major American companies. Additionally, we own a few non-U.S. equities and participate in several joint ventures or other collaborative activities.Whatever our form of ownership, our goal is to have meaningful investments in businesses with both durable economic advantages and a first-class CEO. Please note particularly that we own stocks based upon our expectations about their long-term business performance and not because we view them as vehicles for timely market moves. That point is crucial: Charlie and I are not stock-pickers; we are business-pickers.I make many mistakes. Consequently, our extensive collection of businesses includes some enterprises that have truly extraordinary economics, many others that enjoy good economic characteristics, and a few that are marginal. One advantage of our common-stock segment is that – on occasion – it becomes easy to buy pieces of wonderful businesses at wonderful prices. That shooting-fish-in-a-barrel experience is very rare in negotiated transactions and never occurs en masse. It is also far easier to exit from a mistake when it has been made in the marketable arena.Surprise, SurpriseHere are a few items about your company that often surprise even seasoned investors:• Many people perceive Berkshire as a large and somewhat strange collection of financial assets. In truth, Berkshire owns and operates more U.S.-based “infrastructure” assets – classified on our balance sheet as property, plant and equipment – than are owned and operated by any other American corporation. That supremacy has never been our goal. It has, however, become a fact.At yearend, those domestic infrastructure assets were carried on Berkshire’s balance sheet at $158 billion. That number increased last year and will continue to increase. Berkshire always will be building.• Every year, your company makes substantial federal income tax payments. In 2021, for example, we paid$3.3 billion while the U.S. Treasury reported total corporate income-tax receipts of $402 billion. Additionally, Berkshire pays substantial state and foreign taxes. “I gave at the office” is an unassailable assertion when made by Berkshire shareholders.Berkshire’s history vividly illustrates the invisible and often unrecognized financial partnership between  government and American businesses. Our tale begins early in 1955, when Berkshire Fine Spinning and Hathaway Manufacturing agreed to merge their businesses. In their requests for shareholder approval, these venerable New England textile companies expressed high hopes for the combination.The Hathaway solicitation, for example, assured its shareholders that “The combination of the resources and managements will result in one of the strongest and most efficient organizations in the textile industry.” That upbeat view was endorsed by the company’s advisor, Lehman Brothers (yes, that Lehman Brothers).I’m sure it was a joyous day in both Fall River (Berkshire) and New Bedford (Hathaway) when the union was consummated. After the bands stopped playing and the bankers went home, however, the shareholders reaped a disaster.In the nine years following the merger, Berkshire’s owners watched the company’s net worth crater from$51.4 million to $22.1 million. In part, this decline was caused by stock repurchases, ill-advised dividends and plant shutdowns. But nine years of effort by many thousands of employees delivered an operating loss as well. Berkshire’s struggles were not unusual: The New England textile industry had silently entered an extended and non-reversible death march.During the nine post-merger years, the U.S. Treasury suffered as well from Berkshire’s troubles. All told, the company paid the government only $337,359 in income tax during that period – a pathetic $100 per day.Early in 1965, things changed. Berkshire installed new management that redeployed available cash and steered essentially all earnings into a variety of good businesses, most of which remained good through the years. Coupling reinvestment of earnings with the power of compounding worked its magic, and shareholders prospered.Berkshire’s owners, it should be noted, were not the only beneficiary of that course correction. Their “silent partner,” the U.S. Treasury, proceeded to collect many tens of billions of dollars from the company in income tax payments. Remember the $100 daily? Now, Berkshire pays roughly $9 million daily to the Treasury.In fairness to our governmental partner, our shareholders should acknowledge – indeed trumpet – the fact that Berkshire’s prosperity has been fostered mightily because the company has operated in America. Our country would have done splendidly in the years since 1965 without Berkshire. Absent our American home, however, Berkshire would never have come close to becoming what it is today. When you see the flag, say thanks.• From an $8.6 million purchase of National Indemnity in 1967, Berkshire has become the world leader in insurance “float” – money we hold and can invest but that does not belong to us. Including a relatively small sum derived from life insurance, Berkshire’s total float has grown from $19 million when we entered the insurance business to $147 billion.So far, this float has cost us less than nothing. Though we have experienced a number of years when insurance losses combined with operating expenses exceeded premiums, overall we have earned a modest 55-year profit from the underwriting activities that generated our float.Of equal importance, float is very sticky. Funds attributable to our insurance operations come and go daily, but their aggregate total is immune from precipitous decline. When it comes to investing float, we can therefore think long-term.If you are not already familiar with the concept of float, I refer you to a long explanation on page A-5. To my surprise, our float increased $9 billion last year, a buildup of value that is important to Berkshire owners though is not reflected in our GAAP (“generally-accepted accounting principles”) presentation of earnings and net worth.Much of our huge value creation in insurance is attributable to Berkshire’s good luck in my 1986 hiring of Ajit Jain. We first met on a Saturday morning, and I quickly asked Ajit what his insurance experience had been. He replied, “None.”I said, “Nobody’s perfect,” and hired him. That was my lucky day: Ajit actually was as perfect a choice as could have been made. Better yet, he continues to be – 35 years later.One final thought about insurance: I believe that it is likely – but far from assured – that Berkshire’s float can be maintained without our incurring a long-term underwriting loss. I am certain, however, that there will be some years when we experience such losses, perhaps involving very large sums.Berkshire is constructed to handle catastrophic events as no other insurer – and that priority will remain long after Charlie and I are gone.Our Four GiantsThrough Berkshire, our shareholders own many dozens of businesses. Some of these, in turn, have a collection of subsidiaries of their own. For example, Marmon has more than 100 individual business operations, ranging from the leasing of railroad cars to the manufacture of medical devices.• Nevertheless, operations of our “Big Four” companies account for a very large chunk of Berkshire’s value. Leading this list is our cluster of insurers. Berkshire effectively owns 100% of this group, whose massive float value we earlier described. The invested assets of these insurers are further enlarged by the extraordinary amount of capital we invest to back up their promises.The insurance business is made to order for Berkshire. The product will never be obsolete, and sales volume will generally increase along with both economic growth and inflation. Also, integrity and capital will forever be important. Our company can and will behave well.There are, of course, other insurers with excellent business models and prospects. Replication of Berkshire’s operation, however, would be almost impossible.• Apple – our runner-up Giant as measured by its yearend market value – is a different sort of holding. Here, our ownership is a mere 5.55%, up from 5.39% a year earlier. That increase sounds like small potatoes. But consider that each 0.1% of Apple’s 2021 earnings amounted to $100 million. We spent no Berkshire funds to gain our accretion. Apple’s repurchases did the job.It’s important to understand that only dividends from Apple are counted in the GAAP earnings Berkshire reports – and last year, Apple paid us $785 million of those. Yet our “share” of Apple’s earnings amounted to a staggering $5.6 billion. Much of what the company retained was used to repurchase Apple shares, an act we applaud. Tim Cook, Apple’s brilliant CEO, quite properly regards users of Apple products as his first love, but all of his other constituencies benefit from Tim’s managerial touch as well.• BNSF, our third Giant, continues to be the number one artery of American commerce, which makes it an indispensable asset for America as well as for Berkshire. If the many essential products BNSF carries were instead hauled by truck, America’s carbon emissions would soar.Your railroad had record earnings of $6 billion in 2021. Here, it should be noted, we are talking about the old-fashioned sort of earnings that we favor: a figure calculated after interest, taxes, depreciation, amortization and all forms of compensation. (Our definition suggests a warning: Deceptive “adjustments” to earnings – to use a polite description – have become both more frequent and more fanciful as stocks have risen. Speaking less politely, I would say that bull markets breed bloviated bull )BNSF trains traveled 143 million miles last year and carried 535 million tons of cargo. Both accomplishments far exceed those of any other American carrier. You can be proud of your railroad.• BHE, our final Giant, earned a record $4 billion in 2021. That’s up more than 30-fold from the $122 million earned in 2000, the year that Berkshire first purchased a BHE stake. Now, Berkshire owns 91.1% of the company.BHE’s record of societal accomplishment is as remarkable as its financial performance. The company had no wind or solar generation in 2000. It was then regarded simply as a relatively new and minor participant in the huge electric utility industry. Subsequently, under David Sokol’s and Greg Abel’s leadership, BHE has become a utility powerhouse (no groaning, please) and a leading force in wind, solar and transmission throughout much of the United States.Greg’s report on these accomplishments appears on pages A-3 and A-4. The profile you will find there is not in any way one of those currently-fashionable “green-washing” stories. BHE has been faithfully detailing its plans and performance in renewables and transmissions every year since 2007.To further review this information, visit BHE’s website at brkenergy.com. There, you will see that the company has long been making climate-conscious moves that soak up all of its earnings. More opportunities lie ahead. BHE has the management, the experience, the capital and the appetite for the huge power projects that our country needs.InvestmentsNow let’s talk about companies we don’t control, a list that again references Apple. Below we list our fifteen largest equity holdings, several of which are selections of Berkshire’s two long-time investment managers, Todd Combs and Ted Weschler. At yearend, this valued pair had total authority in respect to $34 billion of investments, many of which do not meet the threshold value we use in the table. Also, a significant portion of the dollars that Todd and Ted manage are lodged in various pension plans of Berkshire-owned businesses, with the assets of these plans not included in this table.* This is our actual purchase price and also our tax basis.** Held by BHE; consequently, Berkshire shareholders have only a 91.1% interest in this position.*** Includes a $10 billion investment in Occidental Petroleum, consisting of preferred stock and warrants to buy common stock, a combination now being valued at $10.7 billion.In addition to the footnoted Occidental holding and our various common-stock positions, Berkshire also owns a 26.6% interest in Kraft Heinz (accounted for on the “equity” method, not market value, and carried at $13.1 billion) and 38.6% of Pilot Corp., a leader in travel centers that had revenues last year of $45 billion.Since we purchased our Pilot stake in 2017, this holding has warranted “equity” accounting treatment. Early in 2023, Berkshire will purchase an additional interest in Pilot that will raise our ownership to 80% and lead to our fully consolidating Pilot’s earnings, assets and liabilities in our financial statements.U.S. Treasury BillsBerkshire’s balance sheet includes $144 billion of cash and cash equivalents (excluding the holdings of BNSF and BHE). Of this sum, $120 billion is held in U.S. Treasury bills, all maturing in less than a year. That stake leaves Berkshire financing about 12 of 1% of the publicly-held national debt.Charlie and I have pledged that Berkshire (along with our subsidiaries other than BNSF and BHE) will always hold more than $30 billion of cash and equivalents. We want your company to be financially impregnable and never dependent on the kindness of strangers (or even that of friends). Both of us like to sleep soundly, and we want our creditors, insurance claimants and you to do so as well.But $144 billion?That imposing sum, I assure you, is not some deranged expression of patriotism. Nor have Charlie and I lost our overwhelming preference for business ownership. Indeed, I first manifested my enthusiasm for that 80 years ago, on March 11, 1942, when I purchased three shares of Cities Services preferred stock. Their cost was $114.75 and required all of my savings. (The Dow Jones Industrial Average that day closed at 99, a fact that should scream to you: Never bet against America.)After my initial plunge, I always kept at least 80% of my net worth in equities. My favored status throughout that period was 100% – and still is. Berkshire’s current 80%-or-so position in businesses is a consequence of my failure to find entire companies or small portions thereof (that is, marketable stocks) which meet our criteria for long- term holding.Charlie and I have endured similar cash-heavy positions from time to time in the past. These periods are never pleasant; they are also never permanent. And, fortunately, we have had a mildly attractive alternative during 2020 and 2021 for deploying capital. Read on.Share RepurchasesThere are three ways that we can increase the value of your investment. The first is always front and center in our minds: Increase the long-term earning power of Berkshire’s controlled businesses through internal growth or by making acquisitions. Today, internal opportunities deliver far better returns than acquisitions. The size of those opportunities, however, is small compared to Berkshire’s resources.Our second choice is to buy non-controlling part-interests in the many good or great businesses that are publicly traded. From time to time, such possibilities are both numerous and blatantly attractive. Today, though, we find little that excites us.That’s largely because of a truism: Long-term interest rates that are low push the prices of all productive investments upward, whether these are stocks, apartments, farms, oil wells, whatever. Other factors influence valuations as well, but interest rates will always be important.Our final path to value creation is to repurchase Berkshire shares. Through that simple act, we increase your share of the many controlled and non-controlled businesses Berkshire owns. When the price/value equation is right, this path is the easiest and most certain way for us to increase your wealth. (Alongside the accretion of value to continuing shareholders, a couple of other parties gain: Repurchases are modestly beneficial to the seller of the repurchased shares and to society as well.)Periodically, as alternative paths become unattractive, repurchases make good sense for Berkshire’s owners. During the past two years, we therefore repurchased 9% of the shares that were outstanding at yearend 2019 for a total cost of $51.7 billion. That expenditure left our continuing shareholders owning about 10% more of all Berkshire businesses, whether these are wholly-owned (such as BNSF and GEICO) or partly-owned (such as Coca-Cola and Moody’s).I want to underscore that for Berkshire repurchases to make sense, our shares must offer appropriate value. We don’t want to overpay for the shares of other companies, and it would be value-destroying if we were to overpay when we are buying Berkshire. As of February 23, 2022, since yearend we repurchased additional shares at a cost of $1.2 billion. Our appetite remains large but will always remain price-dependent.It should be noted that Berkshire’s buyback opportunities are limited because of its high-class investor base. If our shares were heavily held by short-term speculators, both price volatility and transaction volumes would materially increase. That kind of reshaping would offer us far greater opportunities for creating value by making repurchases. Nevertheless, Charlie and I far prefer the owners we have, even though their admirable buy-and-keep attitudes limit the extent to which long-term shareholders can profit from opportunistic repurchases.Finally, one easily-overlooked value calculation specific to Berkshire: As we’ve discussed, insurance “float” of the right sort is of great value to us. As it happens, repurchases automatically increase the amount of “float” per share. That figure has increased during the past two years by 25% – going from $79,387 per “A” share to $99,497, a meaningful gain that, as noted, owes some thanks to repurchases.A Wonderful Man and a Wonderful BusinessLast year, Paul Andrews died. Paul was the founder and CEO of TTI, a Fort Worth-based subsidiary of Berkshire. Throughout his life – in both his business and his personal pursuits – Paul quietly displayed all the qualities that Charlie and I admire. His story should be told.In 1971, Paul was working as a purchasing agent for General Dynamics when the roof fell in. After losing a huge defense contract, the company fired thousands of employees, including Paul.With his first child due soon, Paul decided to bet on himself, using $500 of his savings to found Tex-Tronics (later renamed TTI). The company set itself up to distribute small electronic components, and first-year sales totaled $112,000. Today, TTI markets more than one million different items with annual volume of $7.7 billion.But back to 2006: Paul, at 63, then found himself happy with his family, his job, and his associates. But he had one nagging worry, heightened because he had recently witnessed a friend’s early death and the disastrous results that followed for that man’s family and business. What, Paul asked himself in 2006, would happen to the many people depending on him if he should unexpectedly die?For a year, Paul wrestled with his options. Sell to a competitor? From a strictly economic viewpoint, that course made the most sense. After all, competitors could envision lucrative “synergies” – savings that would be achieved as the acquiror slashed duplicated functions at TTI.But . . . Such a purchaser would most certainly also retain its CFO, its legal counsel, its HR unit. Their TTI counterparts would therefore be sent packing. And ugh! If a new distribution center were to be needed, the acquirer’s home city would certainly be favored over Fort Worth.Whatever the financial benefits, Paul quickly concluded that selling to a competitor was not for him. He next considered seeking a financial buyer, a species once labeled – aptly so – a leveraged buyout firm. Paul knew, however, that such a purchaser would be focused on an “exit strategy.” And who could know what that would be? Brooding over it all, Paul found himself having no interest in handing his 35-year-old creation over to a reseller.When Paul met me, he explained why he had eliminated these two alternatives as buyers. He then summed up his dilemma by saying – in far more tactful phrasing than this – “After a year of pondering the alternatives, I want to sell to Berkshire because you are the only guy left.” So, I made an offer and Paul said “Yes.” One meeting; one lunch; one deal.To say we both lived happily ever after is an understatement. When Berkshire purchased TTI, the company employed 2,387. Now the number is 8,043. A large percentage of that growth took place in Fort Worth and environs. Earnings have increased 673%.Annually, I would call Paul and tell him his salary should be substantially increased. Annually, he would tell me, “We can talk about that next year, Warren; I’m too busy now.”When Greg Abel and I attended Paul’s memorial service, we met children, grandchildren, long-time associates (including TTI’s first employee) and John Roach, the former CEO of a Fort Worth company Berkshire had purchased in 2000. John had steered his friend Paul to Omaha, instinctively knowing we would be a match.At the service, Greg and I heard about the multitudes of people and organizations that Paul had silently supported. The breadth of his generosity was extraordinary – geared always to improving the lives of others, particularly those in Fort Worth.In all ways, Paul was a class act.* * * * * * * * * * * *Good luck – occasionally extraordinary luck – has played its part at Berkshire. If Paul and I had not enjoyed a mutual friend – John Roach – TTI would not have found its home with us. But that ample serving of luck was only the beginning. TTI was soon to lead Berkshire to its most important acquisition.Every fall, Berkshire directors gather for a presentation by a few of our executives. We sometimes choose the site based upon the location of a recent acquisition, by that means allowing directors to meet the new subsidiary’s CEO and learn more about the acquiree’s activities.In the fall of 2009, we consequently selected Fort Worth so that we could visit TTI. At that time, BNSF, which also had Fort Worth as its hometown, was the third-largest holding among our marketable equities. Despite that large stake, I had never visited the railroad’s headquarters.Deb Bosanek, my assistant, scheduled our board’s opening dinner for October 22. Meanwhile, I arranged to arrive earlier that day to meet with Matt Rose, CEO of BNSF, whose accomplishments I had long admired. When I made the date, I had no idea that our get-together would coincide with BNSF’s third-quarter earnings report, which was released late on the 22nd.The market reacted badly to the railroad’s results. The Great Recession was in full force in the third quarter, and BNSF’s earnings reflected that slump. The economic outlook was also bleak, and Wall Street wasn’t feeling friendly to railroads – or much else.On the following day, I again got together with Matt and suggested that Berkshire would offer the railroad a better long-term home than it could expect as a public company. I also told him the maximum price that Berkshire would pay.Matt relayed the offer to his directors and advisors. Eleven busy days later, Berkshire and BNSF announced a firm deal. And here I’ll venture a rare prediction: BNSF will be a key asset for Berkshire and our country a century from now.The BNSF acquisition would never have happened if Paul Andrews hadn’t sized up Berkshire as the right home for TTI.ThanksI taught my first investing class 70 years ago. Since then, I have enjoyed working almost every year with students of all ages, finally “retiring” from that pursuit in 2018.Along the way, my toughest audience was my grandson’s fifth-grade class. The 11-year-olds were squirming in their seats and giving me blank stares until I mentioned Coca-Cola and its famous secret formula. Instantly, every hand went up, and I learned that “secrets” are catnip to kids.Teaching, like writing, has helped me develop and clarify my own thoughts. Charlie calls this phenomenon the orangutan effect: If you sit down with an orangutan and carefully explain to it one of your cherished ideas, you may leave behind a puzzled primate, but will yourself exit thinking more clearly.Talking to university students is far superior. I have urged that they seek employment in (1) the field and (2) with the kind of people they would select, if they had no need for money. Economic realities, I acknowledge, may interfere with that kind of search. Even so, I urge the students never to give up the quest, for when they find that sort of job, they will no longer be “working.”Charlie and I, ourselves, followed that liberating course after a few early stumbles. We both started as part- timers at my grandfather’s grocery store, Charlie in 1940 and I in 1942. We were each assigned boring tasks and paid little, definitely not what we had in mind. Charlie later took up law, and I tried selling securities. Job satisfaction continued to elude us.Finally, at Berkshire, we found what we love to do. With very few exceptions, we have now “worked” for many decades with people whom we like and trust. It’s a joy in life to join with managers such as Paul Andrews or the Berkshire families I told you about last year. In our home office, we employ decent and talented people – no jerks. Turnover averages, perhaps, one person per year.I would like, however, to emphasize a further item that turns our jobs into fun and satisfaction workingfor you. There is nothing more rewarding to Charlie and me than enjoying the trust of individual long-term shareholders who, for many decades, have joined us with the expectation that we would be a reliable custodian of their funds.Obviously, we can’t select our owners, as we could do if our form of operation were a partnership. Anyone can buy shares of Berkshire today with the intention of soon reselling them. For sure, we get a few of that type of shareholder, just as we get index funds that own huge amounts of Berkshire simply because they are required to do so.To a truly unusual degree, however, Berkshire has as owners a very large corps of individuals and families that have elected to join us with an intent approaching “til death do us part.” Often, they have trusted us with a large – some might say excessive – portion of their savings.Berkshire, these shareholders would sometimes acknowledge, might be far from the best selection they could have made. But they would add that Berkshire would rank high among those with which they would be most comfortable. And people who are comfortable with their investments will, on average, achieve better results than those who are motivated by ever-changing headlines, chatter and promises.Long-term individual owners are both the “partners” Charlie and I have always sought and the ones we constantly have in mind as we make decisions at Berkshire. To them we say, “It feels good to ‘work’ for you, and you have our thanks for your trust.”The Annual MeetingClear your calendar! Berkshire will have its annual gathering of capitalists in Omaha on Friday, April 29th through Sunday, May 1st. The details regarding the weekend are laid out on pages A-1 and A-2. Omaha eagerly awaits you, as do I.I will end this letter with a sales pitch. “Cousin” Jimmy Buffett has designed a pontoon “party” boat that is now being manufactured by Forest River, a Berkshire subsidiary. The boat will be introduced on April 29 at our Berkshire Bazaar of Bargains. And, for two days only, shareholders will be able to purchase Jimmy’s masterpiece at a 10% discount. Your bargain-hunting chairman will be buying a boat for his family’s use. Join me.February 26, 2022Warren E. Buffett Chairman of the Board","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":636399095,"gmtCreate":1645668415951,"gmtModify":1645668416283,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087870165979230","idStr":"4087870165979230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/636399095","repostId":"2213091531","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1052,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631778271,"gmtCreate":1644972579008,"gmtModify":1644972579318,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087870165979230","idStr":"4087870165979230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Likepls","listText":"Likepls","text":"Likepls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631778271","repostId":"2211637053","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1271,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631213438,"gmtCreate":1644758162717,"gmtModify":1644758163053,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087870165979230","idStr":"4087870165979230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631213438","repostId":"2210752103","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":990,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631629529,"gmtCreate":1644673222113,"gmtModify":1644673222416,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087870165979230","idStr":"4087870165979230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631629529","repostId":"1167381325","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1167381325","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644625609,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167381325?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-12 08:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: More micro-caps amid the IPO market’s February lull<blockquote>美国IPO一周：二月份IPO市场平静期间出现更多微型股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167381325","media":"renaissancecap...","summary":"The IPO market has hit its February lull. Just two micro-cap holdovers are scheduled to price in the","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The IPO market has hit its February lull. Just two micro-cap holdovers are scheduled to price in the week ahead, though some small issuers and SPACs may join the calendar during the week.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>IPO市场已进入二月份的平静期。尽管一些小型发行人和SPAC可能会在本周加入日历，但只有两只微型股计划在未来一周定价。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Preclinical biotech <b>Ocean Biomedical</b>(OCEA) plans to raise $22 million at a $222 million market cap. The company’s preclinical pipeline includes various humanized mAbs for non-small cell lung cancer and glioblastoma multiforme, a small molecule for the treatment of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis, a malaria vaccine, and two malaria therapeutics.</p><p><blockquote>临床前生物技术<b>海洋生物医学</b>(OCEA)计划以2.22亿美元的市值筹集2200万美元。该公司的临床前管线包括用于非小细胞肺癌和多形性胶质母细胞瘤的各种人源化单克隆抗体、一种用于治疗特发性肺纤维化的小分子、一种疟疾疫苗和两种疟疾治疗药物。</blockquote></p><p>Bedding brand <b>Cariloha</b>(ALOHA) plans to raise $20 million at a $122 million market cap. The company positions itself as an eco-friendly alternative to traditional fabrics, and largely reaches customers through partnerships with cruise lines. Cariloha’s sales fell 30% in 2020 due to the pandemic, though it has since ramped up S&amp;M initiatives in the DTC channel. The company cut its deal size by 33% on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>床上用品品牌<b>卡里洛哈</b>(ALOHA)计划以1.22亿美元的市值筹集2000万美元。该公司将自己定位为传统面料的环保替代品，并主要通过与邮轮公司的合作来接触客户。由于疫情，Cariloha的销售额在2020年下降了30%，尽管此后该公司加大了DTC渠道的S&amp;M举措。该公司周五将交易规模削减了33%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03fc45f9eafede36a0eb28d36cd5ab7b\" tg-width=\"1555\" tg-height=\"383\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619493174116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: More micro-caps amid the IPO market’s February lull<blockquote>美国IPO一周：二月份IPO市场平静期间出现更多微型股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: More micro-caps amid the IPO market’s February lull<blockquote>美国IPO一周：二月份IPO市场平静期间出现更多微型股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">renaissancecap...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-12 08:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The IPO market has hit its February lull. Just two micro-cap holdovers are scheduled to price in the week ahead, though some small issuers and SPACs may join the calendar during the week.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>IPO市场已进入二月份的平静期。尽管一些小型发行人和SPAC可能会在本周加入日历，但只有两只微型股计划在未来一周定价。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Preclinical biotech <b>Ocean Biomedical</b>(OCEA) plans to raise $22 million at a $222 million market cap. The company’s preclinical pipeline includes various humanized mAbs for non-small cell lung cancer and glioblastoma multiforme, a small molecule for the treatment of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis, a malaria vaccine, and two malaria therapeutics.</p><p><blockquote>临床前生物技术<b>海洋生物医学</b>(OCEA)计划以2.22亿美元的市值筹集2200万美元。该公司的临床前管线包括用于非小细胞肺癌和多形性胶质母细胞瘤的各种人源化单克隆抗体、一种用于治疗特发性肺纤维化的小分子、一种疟疾疫苗和两种疟疾治疗药物。</blockquote></p><p>Bedding brand <b>Cariloha</b>(ALOHA) plans to raise $20 million at a $122 million market cap. The company positions itself as an eco-friendly alternative to traditional fabrics, and largely reaches customers through partnerships with cruise lines. Cariloha’s sales fell 30% in 2020 due to the pandemic, though it has since ramped up S&amp;M initiatives in the DTC channel. The company cut its deal size by 33% on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>床上用品品牌<b>卡里洛哈</b>(ALOHA)计划以1.22亿美元的市值筹集2000万美元。该公司将自己定位为传统面料的环保替代品，并主要通过与邮轮公司的合作来接触客户。由于疫情，Cariloha的销售额在2020年下降了30%，尽管此后该公司加大了DTC渠道的S&amp;M举措。该公司周五将交易规模削减了33%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03fc45f9eafede36a0eb28d36cd5ab7b\" tg-width=\"1555\" tg-height=\"383\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/90918/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-More-micro-caps-amid-the-IPO-market%E2%80%99s-February-lull\">renaissancecap...</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IPO":"Renaissance IPO ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/90918/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-More-micro-caps-amid-the-IPO-market%E2%80%99s-February-lull","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1167381325","content_text":"The IPO market has hit its February lull. Just two micro-cap holdovers are scheduled to price in the week ahead, though some small issuers and SPACs may join the calendar during the week.Preclinical biotech Ocean Biomedical(OCEA) plans to raise $22 million at a $222 million market cap. The company’s preclinical pipeline includes various humanized mAbs for non-small cell lung cancer and glioblastoma multiforme, a small molecule for the treatment of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis, a malaria vaccine, and two malaria therapeutics.Bedding brand Cariloha(ALOHA) plans to raise $20 million at a $122 million market cap. The company positions itself as an eco-friendly alternative to traditional fabrics, and largely reaches customers through partnerships with cruise lines. Cariloha’s sales fell 30% in 2020 due to the pandemic, though it has since ramped up S&M initiatives in the DTC channel. The company cut its deal size by 33% on Friday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IPO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":631393089,"gmtCreate":1644468255894,"gmtModify":1644468256222,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087870165979230","idStr":"4087870165979230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/631393089","repostId":"2210563984","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633247939,"gmtCreate":1644195417254,"gmtModify":1644195417565,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087870165979230","idStr":"4087870165979230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633247939","repostId":"1139709004","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":977,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633674047,"gmtCreate":1644055989141,"gmtModify":1644055989454,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087870165979230","idStr":"4087870165979230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633674047","repostId":"2208314051","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633675745,"gmtCreate":1644055930076,"gmtModify":1644055930486,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087870165979230","idStr":"4087870165979230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lik3 pls","listText":"Lik3 pls","text":"Lik3 pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633675745","repostId":"1196927717","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196927717","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644033090,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196927717?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-05 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir：危险信号还是机遇？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196927717","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至2021年第三季度，Palantir总共只有203名客户，而其中只有20名客户占总收入的58%。</li><li>与2020年相比，2021年前三季度Palantir核心客户群的年化收入增长放缓至20%。</li><li>2021年，Palantir从根本上改变了其上市战略。该公司目前正在利用其现金积极投资同意购买Palantir软件的其他公司（被投资方）。</li><li>管理层继续指导到十年中期销售额增长30%。然而，Palantir的三阶段业务模式暗示，不包括其被投资方的销售额，销售额呈下降趋势。</li><li>Palantir提供了非凡的长期增长潜力，这应该使其成为所有成长型投资者的观察名单。投资案例建立在机会和危险信号之间的支点上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>agawa288/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>我给予Palantir（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）中性风险/回报评级，因为长期增长机会被近期危险信号所抵消。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，一些值得注意的危险信号值得谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升（误差幅度有限）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险/回报评级：中性</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><blockquote>与企业软件领域的同行相比，Palantir在获取和扩大客户群方面拥有不同寻常的商业模式。该公司根据三个发展阶段或群体对其客户进行分类：(1)收购、(2)扩张和(3)规模。虽然它们是适用于所有企业的通用术语，但由于该公司对待客户的方式，它们在Palantir的情况下是独一无二的。</blockquote></p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户详细信息</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir将收购群体中的客户定义为截至年底收入低于100,000美元且对Palantir无利可图的客户。扩展群组的特点是一个销售额超过100,000美元但仍未盈利的客户。最后，规模群体被定义为在这一年中为Palantir创造了超过100,000美元收入且具有盈利关系的客户。</blockquote></p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p><blockquote>下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。第一个表显示了Palantir在2020年底分类的每个客户群体的2020年销售额（2020年收入）。在2021年年化栏中，您会发现这些2020年客户群到2021年第三季度的年化销售额。在第二组表格中，我汇编了过去12个月Palantir最大客户的关键详细信息，以及与2021年Palantir新客户（尚未分配到某个群组）相关的关键详细信息。队列分类在每年年底进行。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p><blockquote>为了便于比较，我对相关信息进行了颜色编码。Palantir的主要现实之一是其集中的客户群，以蓝色突出显示。Palantir只有203个客户，前20名占销售额的58%。</blockquote></p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义，Palantir最大的客户属于规模群体。到2021年前三季度，规模队列（2020年底分类）以20%的年化速度增长。鉴于该群体占Palantir收入的86%，如果没有其他两个群体的爆炸性增长或规模群体的实质性加速，将销售增长率大幅提高到20%以上将具有挑战性。应该指出的是，管理层指导到十年中期年销售额增长30%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p><blockquote>上表中以黄色突出显示了2020年底收购和扩展队列。在年终Palantir报告发布之前，2021年的新客户不会被分配到一个队列中。我用黄色突出显示了相关的2021年新客户数据，以便于与2020年获取和扩展客户群体进行比较。我认为2021年新客户销售业绩（不包括对被投资方的销售）是可持续的核心增长率。被投资方的客户获取策略非常不寻常，具有极高的资本风险，从而引入声誉风险，从而引入品牌风险。</blockquote></p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，这里的被投资方是指Palantir使用Palantir的软件购买其股票以换取被投资方的客户。这意味着，来自被投资方的收入是Palantir投资这些客户股票的回报。在这方面，这些不是公平交易。我认为，不包括对被投资方的销售的新客户数量是确定纯粹基于市场的新客户增长率的重要数据点。</blockquote></p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>与2021年规模群体的年化增长率20%类似，到2021年第三季度，新客户销售额的年化增长率为22%，而2020年收购和扩张群体的销售额为2060万美元。虽然这不是新客户销售增长的完美比较，但这是一个公平的估计。因此，Palantir的基本销售增长率似乎倾向于接近20%，而不是该公司到十年中期30%的销售增长指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p><blockquote><b>被投资方</b></blockquote></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p><blockquote>退一步回顾Palantir对被投资方的投资非常重要，因为这是一种非常不寻常的获取客户的上市策略。上述数字表明收入增长趋势为20%，这让Palantir使用资产负债表现金为新客户提供资金的方式有了新的认识。下表摘自Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q。第一个表格列出了截至2021年第三季度末Palantir资助的公司。第二个表格显示了Palantir对尚未获得资金的新公司的投资承诺。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>我对上述每家公司都进行了粗略的回顾。共同的主题是，它们都是最受欢迎的成长板块中的早期公司。这些行业包括电动汽车、机器人、飞行电动汽车、卫星服务和药物发现。似乎没有一家被投资方本身能够提供足够的升值潜力来大幅提高Palantir的估值。Palantir的持股比例为0.4%至1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚每家公司有多少资金可以用于Palantir的软件。此外，目前尚不清楚这些公司截至2021年第三季度的1900万美元收入是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>我在blue中强调了Palantir对这七家公司的总投资为1.5亿美元。黄色突出显示的单元格代表投资的当前估值。Palantir目前仅在这七家公司上就下跌了约6400万美元。这凸显了这种客户获取方法的极端风险，因为迄今为止的资本损失使产生的收入相形见绌。上面没有列出其他私营公司的投资，但是，Palantir没有透露细节。它们包含在Palantir资产负债表上的其他资产中，截至2021年第三季度，该资产总额为1.16亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了Palantir截至2021年第三季度投资新公司的承诺。我用黄色突出显示了Palantir在2021年第三季度末后资助的两家公司。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><blockquote>我用蓝色突出显示了截至2021年第三季度新投资的总资金承诺。这是在第三季度末之前完成的1.5亿美元的基础上完成的2.52亿美元。虽然我没有研究过这些特定的公司，但它们似乎与上面回顾的前七项投资相似。这意味着，与Palantir软件业务固有的估值上涨空间相比，它们似乎具有极大的资本风险，但上涨潜力可能很小。需要注意的是，近期估值极端，继续快速收缩。因此，在VC/IPO周期的顶部进行投资也会增加资本损失的时间风险。</blockquote></p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p><blockquote>谈到Palantir最近的表现，我选择将销售增长视为不包括被投资方，因为这是最有可能的可持续增长轨迹。下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。我通过去除被投资方的收入进行了调整，以得出净收入数字。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><blockquote>我用黄色突出显示了扣除被投资方收入后2021年第三季度29%的收入增长。被投资公司第三季度增长了6.5%。年初至今，被投资方收入占收入增长1.7%。29%的增长率已经低于该公司到十年中期30%的增长指导。请记住，随着Palantir投资承诺的额外资金，被投资方的收入流将会增长。无论如何，第三季度的增长率迅速放缓至29%，而不包括这些非公平销售，今年迄今的增长率为41%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Geographic &amp; Segment Sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>地理和细分市场销售</b></blockquote></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p><blockquote>销售放缓是由法国主导的，2021年前三个季度收缩了22%（下面用橙色突出显示）。应该指出的是，Palantir与空客和航空业有着重要的关系。对于一个重要的客户和行业来说，这可能是一个负面的解读。虽然美国在2021年第三季度仍然是表现最好的国家，但正如下面蓝色突出显示的单元格所证明的那样，增长正在迅速放缓。该表根据Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告编制。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p><blockquote>除法国外，世界其他地区也在迅速放缓，从今年前9个月的45%降至2021年第三季度的20%。请注意，这些是未经任何调整的报告销售额。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的，强调第三季度销售大幅放缓发生在政府部门。请记住，被投资方收入包含在下图中，并为商业部门第三季度增长率增加了约6.5%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，商业部门的收入增长相当稳定，不包括被投资方收入，增长约29%。然而，政府部门正在迅速减速，从2021年前9个月的57%降至第三季度的34%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Profit &amp; KPI</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利及关键绩效指标</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不同寻常的客户获取策略早于转向被投资方。该公司的销售和营销费用似乎与其他公司的销售成本非常相似。之所以出现这种情况，是因为Palantir为潜在客户提供免费的试点计划，而不是要求预先付费才能使用其软件。销售和营销人员执行试点计划并协调解决方案开发，以产生销售。以下引用2021年第三季度10-Q总结了情况：</blockquote></p><p>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p><blockquote>销售和营销成本主要包括工资、股票薪酬费用以及我们的销售人员和参与执行试点和客户增长活动的人员的福利...因此，我认为Palantir的销售和营销费用是销售商品的成本和毛利率的降低。虽然这种分类不会影响底线，但它确实有助于将报告的78%毛利率置于背景中。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这种对销售和营销费用的看法有助于思考Palantir相对于其他公司的商业模式以及依赖毛利率的相对估值。下表根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制，显示了通过从每个行项目中删除相关股票薪酬费用进行调整的报告收入成本以及销售和营销费用。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，与2021年前9个月的59%（以黄色突出显示）相比，第三季度调整后的毛利润增长大幅放缓至25%（在表格下部以蓝色突出显示）。与今年前九个月相比，2021年第三季度的销售成本迅速上升。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir利用一个KPI或关键绩效指标来判断绩效并为决策提供信息，称为贡献率。它与我上面调整后的毛利率数据类似，如下表所示，该表是根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制的。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，贡献行与上表中调整后的毛利润行非常相似。此外，生长速率减速是相似的，如在突出显示的细胞中可以看到的。虽然37%与我估计的25%增长有很大不同，但低于64%的阶跃变化幅度相似。</blockquote></p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p><blockquote><b>营业收入</b></blockquote></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p><blockquote>谈到营业收入，我再次调整了报告的数据，剔除了股票期权相关费用以及与2020年直接上市IPO相关的一次性费用。最重要的信息再次是快速减速。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的，显示了不包括销售和营销费用的运营费用，以及我调整后的运营收入估计。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>在表格的下半部分，请注意2021年第三季度调整后营业收入令人难以置信地减速至40%的增长，而今年前9个月的增长为266%。一般和管理费用在2021年第三季度迅速增加，而Palantir在第三季度大幅减少了研发投资，仅增长了5%。</blockquote></p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&amp;D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>研发投资放缓可能会对销售增长产生负面影响，因为研发是销售过程中不可或缺的一部分。研发费用应该通过三个客户阶段来跟踪销售周期：获取、扩展和规模化。随着销售和营销部门确定客户需求，研发费用应响应未来销售潜力的增加。目前这似乎没有发生。</blockquote></p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年第三季度，Palantir调整后的年化营业收入运行率约为300至3.2亿美元，即每股约0.16美元。这是税前营业收入数字。营业收入方面的主要结论是盈利能力正在迅速放缓。这为正在部署的不同寻常的被投资方客户获取策略提供了额外的色彩。</blockquote></p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>共识增长估计</b></blockquote></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>如果Palantir的调整后年营业收入运行率为3.2亿美元，并且按25%的正常化税率征税，则当前的盈利能力将在2.4亿美元范围内，即稀释后每股0.12美元。有了这些信息和上面概述的增长减速，我们可以开始将普遍的盈利预测置于背景中。下表根据Seeking Alpha编制，显示了到2023年的普遍盈利和收入预测。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法。创建者：Brian Kapp，stoxdox</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p><blockquote>我强调了对2022年盈利和销售增长的普遍预期。请注意，2022年39%的普遍盈利增长预期与2021年第三季度40%的营业收入增长一致。此外，30%的销售增长预期略高于2021年第三季度29%的调整后销售增长（不包括对被投资方的销售）。</blockquote></p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于2021年第三季度营业收入迅速放缓至40%，而今年前9个月的营业收入为266%，预计2022年39%的盈利增长似乎面临过高的重大风险。这一轨迹可能会使2022年的盈利增长率远低于39%。</blockquote></p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于Palantir对随后购买Palantir软件的被投资方采取了积极的投资策略，2022年30%的销售额增长预期似乎是可以实现的。我相信市场会像我一样对被投资方的销售打折。排除这些销售，2022年收入增长轨迹似乎接近20%，而不是30%，这为进一步的增长失望打开了大门。</blockquote></p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>从2023年的共识预测来看，预期增长率与2022年非常相似。这种到2023年的直线增长预测增加了未来几年共识估计可能过高的风险。目前的轨迹表明，2022年和2023年的增长将大幅低于预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的交易价格是2021年普遍盈利预期的87倍，是2022年普遍盈利预期的62倍。请记住，这些是非GAAP（公认会计原则）盈利预测。根据公认会计准则，Palantir继续亏损生产。2021年第三季度报告的亏损为9200万美元，2021年前9个月为3.52亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>使用非公认会计准则盈利预测，从历史市场角度来看，87倍的本年度盈利和62倍的预期盈利是极端估值。也就是说，它们是近年来成长型股票的可能性范围内的。考虑到Palantir迅速放缓的销售和营业收入增长率，以及共识估计可能过高的风险增加，目前共识估计的估值倍数几乎没有出错的余地。</blockquote></p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>在销售方面，Palantir的估值是2021年普遍收入预期的17倍，是2022年的13倍。从历史角度来看，对于大盘股公司来说，这些是极端的市销率倍数。我对核心销售增长趋势为20%（不包括被投资方收入）的估计表明，这些销售估值倍数也几乎没有误差。</blockquote></p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><blockquote>再加上营业收入增长迅速放缓，估值风险进一步上升。此外，从我截至2021年第三季度调整后的毛利率增长25%可以看出，Palantir的商业模式可能不支持历史上极端的市销率估值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然基本面背景表明误差幅度很小，超额回报潜力减弱，但技术设置表明更有意义的上行回报潜力。下面的3年周线图提供了潜在技术回报谱的鸟瞰图。我用橙色水平线突出显示了关键阻力位，用绿线突出了主要支撑位。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Palantir 3年周线图。（由Brian Kapp使用Barchart.com的图表创建）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>最近阻力位19美元和22美元的回报潜力分别为43%和65%。下行方面，最近的支撑位于10美元附近的IPO价格区间。该水平的下行回报潜力为-25%。需要注意的是，Palantir 16个月的短暂交易历史限制了技术分析的有用性。此外，由于没有低于IPO价格的交易历史，尚不清楚如果向下突破10美元水平，将在哪里找到支撑。</blockquote></p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计低于10美元的下行潜力，我采用了2022年非GAAP共识盈利预测的40倍市盈率。这一估值是当前市场平均水平的两倍，Palantir股价将达到8美元。这意味着较当前水平的下行风险为-40%。</blockquote></p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p><blockquote>如果2022年39%的普遍盈利预期过高，则有可能从8美元进一步下跌。如果估计过高，为了估计潜在的下行风险，我将相同的40倍非GAAP收益应用于Palantir当前完全纳税、非GAAP盈利能力的年运行率估计。如果2022年盈利增长率为25%（我对截至2021年第三季度调整后毛利润增长率的估计），而我对当前调整后税后盈利年增长率的估计为0.12美元，那么该股的交易价格可能会跌至6美元。这意味着下行风险为-55%。</blockquote></p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>下面的日线图详细介绍了技术背景。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><blockquote>技术面显示19美元至22美元之间存在较大阻力。鉴于过去三个月的持续下跌趋势，近期可能会出现反弹。也就是说，上行的技术潜力与下行的基本面潜力相结合，使该股在短期内具有65%至-55%的平衡潜在回报范围。</blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，Palantir应该被列入高风险成长型投资者的观察名单。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，由于出现了明显的危险信号，因此需要谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升（误差幅度有限）。由此产生的风险和回报之间的对称性导致中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir：危险信号还是机遇？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir：危险信号还是机遇？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-05 11:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至2021年第三季度，Palantir总共只有203名客户，而其中只有20名客户占总收入的58%。</li><li>与2020年相比，2021年前三季度Palantir核心客户群的年化收入增长放缓至20%。</li><li>2021年，Palantir从根本上改变了其上市战略。该公司目前正在利用其现金积极投资同意购买Palantir软件的其他公司（被投资方）。</li><li>管理层继续指导到十年中期销售额增长30%。然而，Palantir的三阶段业务模式暗示，不包括其被投资方的销售额，销售额呈下降趋势。</li><li>Palantir提供了非凡的长期增长潜力，这应该使其成为所有成长型投资者的观察名单。投资案例建立在机会和危险信号之间的支点上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>agawa288/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>我给予Palantir（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）中性风险/回报评级，因为长期增长机会被近期危险信号所抵消。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，一些值得注意的危险信号值得谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升（误差幅度有限）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险/回报评级：中性</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><blockquote>与企业软件领域的同行相比，Palantir在获取和扩大客户群方面拥有不同寻常的商业模式。该公司根据三个发展阶段或群体对其客户进行分类：(1)收购、(2)扩张和(3)规模。虽然它们是适用于所有企业的通用术语，但由于该公司对待客户的方式，它们在Palantir的情况下是独一无二的。</blockquote></p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户详细信息</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir将收购群体中的客户定义为截至年底收入低于100,000美元且对Palantir无利可图的客户。扩展群组的特点是一个销售额超过100,000美元但仍未盈利的客户。最后，规模群体被定义为在这一年中为Palantir创造了超过100,000美元收入且具有盈利关系的客户。</blockquote></p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p><blockquote>下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。第一个表显示了Palantir在2020年底分类的每个客户群体的2020年销售额（2020年收入）。在2021年年化栏中，您会发现这些2020年客户群到2021年第三季度的年化销售额。在第二组表格中，我汇编了过去12个月Palantir最大客户的关键详细信息，以及与2021年Palantir新客户（尚未分配到某个群组）相关的关键详细信息。队列分类在每年年底进行。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p><blockquote>为了便于比较，我对相关信息进行了颜色编码。Palantir的主要现实之一是其集中的客户群，以蓝色突出显示。Palantir只有203个客户，前20名占销售额的58%。</blockquote></p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义，Palantir最大的客户属于规模群体。到2021年前三季度，规模队列（2020年底分类）以20%的年化速度增长。鉴于该群体占Palantir收入的86%，如果没有其他两个群体的爆炸性增长或规模群体的实质性加速，将销售增长率大幅提高到20%以上将具有挑战性。应该指出的是，管理层指导到十年中期年销售额增长30%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p><blockquote>上表中以黄色突出显示了2020年底收购和扩展队列。在年终Palantir报告发布之前，2021年的新客户不会被分配到一个队列中。我用黄色突出显示了相关的2021年新客户数据，以便于与2020年获取和扩展客户群体进行比较。我认为2021年新客户销售业绩（不包括对被投资方的销售）是可持续的核心增长率。被投资方的客户获取策略非常不寻常，具有极高的资本风险，从而引入声誉风险，从而引入品牌风险。</blockquote></p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，这里的被投资方是指Palantir使用Palantir的软件购买其股票以换取被投资方的客户。这意味着，来自被投资方的收入是Palantir投资这些客户股票的回报。在这方面，这些不是公平交易。我认为，不包括对被投资方的销售的新客户数量是确定纯粹基于市场的新客户增长率的重要数据点。</blockquote></p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>与2021年规模群体的年化增长率20%类似，到2021年第三季度，新客户销售额的年化增长率为22%，而2020年收购和扩张群体的销售额为2060万美元。虽然这不是新客户销售增长的完美比较，但这是一个公平的估计。因此，Palantir的基本销售增长率似乎倾向于接近20%，而不是该公司到十年中期30%的销售增长指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p><blockquote><b>被投资方</b></blockquote></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p><blockquote>退一步回顾Palantir对被投资方的投资非常重要，因为这是一种非常不寻常的获取客户的上市策略。上述数字表明收入增长趋势为20%，这让Palantir使用资产负债表现金为新客户提供资金的方式有了新的认识。下表摘自Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q。第一个表格列出了截至2021年第三季度末Palantir资助的公司。第二个表格显示了Palantir对尚未获得资金的新公司的投资承诺。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>我对上述每家公司都进行了粗略的回顾。共同的主题是，它们都是最受欢迎的成长板块中的早期公司。这些行业包括电动汽车、机器人、飞行电动汽车、卫星服务和药物发现。似乎没有一家被投资方本身能够提供足够的升值潜力来大幅提高Palantir的估值。Palantir的持股比例为0.4%至1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚每家公司有多少资金可以用于Palantir的软件。此外，目前尚不清楚这些公司截至2021年第三季度的1900万美元收入是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>我在blue中强调了Palantir对这七家公司的总投资为1.5亿美元。黄色突出显示的单元格代表投资的当前估值。Palantir目前仅在这七家公司上就下跌了约6400万美元。这凸显了这种客户获取方法的极端风险，因为迄今为止的资本损失使产生的收入相形见绌。上面没有列出其他私营公司的投资，但是，Palantir没有透露细节。它们包含在Palantir资产负债表上的其他资产中，截至2021年第三季度，该资产总额为1.16亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了Palantir截至2021年第三季度投资新公司的承诺。我用黄色突出显示了Palantir在2021年第三季度末后资助的两家公司。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><blockquote>我用蓝色突出显示了截至2021年第三季度新投资的总资金承诺。这是在第三季度末之前完成的1.5亿美元的基础上完成的2.52亿美元。虽然我没有研究过这些特定的公司，但它们似乎与上面回顾的前七项投资相似。这意味着，与Palantir软件业务固有的估值上涨空间相比，它们似乎具有极大的资本风险，但上涨潜力可能很小。需要注意的是，近期估值极端，继续快速收缩。因此，在VC/IPO周期的顶部进行投资也会增加资本损失的时间风险。</blockquote></p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p><blockquote>谈到Palantir最近的表现，我选择将销售增长视为不包括被投资方，因为这是最有可能的可持续增长轨迹。下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。我通过去除被投资方的收入进行了调整，以得出净收入数字。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><blockquote>我用黄色突出显示了扣除被投资方收入后2021年第三季度29%的收入增长。被投资公司第三季度增长了6.5%。年初至今，被投资方收入占收入增长1.7%。29%的增长率已经低于该公司到十年中期30%的增长指导。请记住，随着Palantir投资承诺的额外资金，被投资方的收入流将会增长。无论如何，第三季度的增长率迅速放缓至29%，而不包括这些非公平销售，今年迄今的增长率为41%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Geographic &amp; Segment Sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>地理和细分市场销售</b></blockquote></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p><blockquote>销售放缓是由法国主导的，2021年前三个季度收缩了22%（下面用橙色突出显示）。应该指出的是，Palantir与空客和航空业有着重要的关系。对于一个重要的客户和行业来说，这可能是一个负面的解读。虽然美国在2021年第三季度仍然是表现最好的国家，但正如下面蓝色突出显示的单元格所证明的那样，增长正在迅速放缓。该表根据Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告编制。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p><blockquote>除法国外，世界其他地区也在迅速放缓，从今年前9个月的45%降至2021年第三季度的20%。请注意，这些是未经任何调整的报告销售额。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的，强调第三季度销售大幅放缓发生在政府部门。请记住，被投资方收入包含在下图中，并为商业部门第三季度增长率增加了约6.5%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，商业部门的收入增长相当稳定，不包括被投资方收入，增长约29%。然而，政府部门正在迅速减速，从2021年前9个月的57%降至第三季度的34%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Profit &amp; KPI</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利及关键绩效指标</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不同寻常的客户获取策略早于转向被投资方。该公司的销售和营销费用似乎与其他公司的销售成本非常相似。之所以出现这种情况，是因为Palantir为潜在客户提供免费的试点计划，而不是要求预先付费才能使用其软件。销售和营销人员执行试点计划并协调解决方案开发，以产生销售。以下引用2021年第三季度10-Q总结了情况：</blockquote></p><p>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p><blockquote>销售和营销成本主要包括工资、股票薪酬费用以及我们的销售人员和参与执行试点和客户增长活动的人员的福利...因此，我认为Palantir的销售和营销费用是销售商品的成本和毛利率的降低。虽然这种分类不会影响底线，但它确实有助于将报告的78%毛利率置于背景中。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这种对销售和营销费用的看法有助于思考Palantir相对于其他公司的商业模式以及依赖毛利率的相对估值。下表根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制，显示了通过从每个行项目中删除相关股票薪酬费用进行调整的报告收入成本以及销售和营销费用。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，与2021年前9个月的59%（以黄色突出显示）相比，第三季度调整后的毛利润增长大幅放缓至25%（在表格下部以蓝色突出显示）。与今年前九个月相比，2021年第三季度的销售成本迅速上升。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir利用一个KPI或关键绩效指标来判断绩效并为决策提供信息，称为贡献率。它与我上面调整后的毛利率数据类似，如下表所示，该表是根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制的。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，贡献行与上表中调整后的毛利润行非常相似。此外，生长速率减速是相似的，如在突出显示的细胞中可以看到的。虽然37%与我估计的25%增长有很大不同，但低于64%的阶跃变化幅度相似。</blockquote></p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p><blockquote><b>营业收入</b></blockquote></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p><blockquote>谈到营业收入，我再次调整了报告的数据，剔除了股票期权相关费用以及与2020年直接上市IPO相关的一次性费用。最重要的信息再次是快速减速。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的，显示了不包括销售和营销费用的运营费用，以及我调整后的运营收入估计。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>在表格的下半部分，请注意2021年第三季度调整后营业收入令人难以置信地减速至40%的增长，而今年前9个月的增长为266%。一般和管理费用在2021年第三季度迅速增加，而Palantir在第三季度大幅减少了研发投资，仅增长了5%。</blockquote></p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&amp;D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>研发投资放缓可能会对销售增长产生负面影响，因为研发是销售过程中不可或缺的一部分。研发费用应该通过三个客户阶段来跟踪销售周期：获取、扩展和规模化。随着销售和营销部门确定客户需求，研发费用应响应未来销售潜力的增加。目前这似乎没有发生。</blockquote></p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年第三季度，Palantir调整后的年化营业收入运行率约为300至3.2亿美元，即每股约0.16美元。这是税前营业收入数字。营业收入方面的主要结论是盈利能力正在迅速放缓。这为正在部署的不同寻常的被投资方客户获取策略提供了额外的色彩。</blockquote></p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>共识增长估计</b></blockquote></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>如果Palantir的调整后年营业收入运行率为3.2亿美元，并且按25%的正常化税率征税，则当前的盈利能力将在2.4亿美元范围内，即稀释后每股0.12美元。有了这些信息和上面概述的增长减速，我们可以开始将普遍的盈利预测置于背景中。下表根据Seeking Alpha编制，显示了到2023年的普遍盈利和收入预测。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法。创建者：Brian Kapp，stoxdox</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p><blockquote>我强调了对2022年盈利和销售增长的普遍预期。请注意，2022年39%的普遍盈利增长预期与2021年第三季度40%的营业收入增长一致。此外，30%的销售增长预期略高于2021年第三季度29%的调整后销售增长（不包括对被投资方的销售）。</blockquote></p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于2021年第三季度营业收入迅速放缓至40%，而今年前9个月的营业收入为266%，预计2022年39%的盈利增长似乎面临过高的重大风险。这一轨迹可能会使2022年的盈利增长率远低于39%。</blockquote></p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于Palantir对随后购买Palantir软件的被投资方采取了积极的投资策略，2022年30%的销售额增长预期似乎是可以实现的。我相信市场会像我一样对被投资方的销售打折。排除这些销售，2022年收入增长轨迹似乎接近20%，而不是30%，这为进一步的增长失望打开了大门。</blockquote></p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>从2023年的共识预测来看，预期增长率与2022年非常相似。这种到2023年的直线增长预测增加了未来几年共识估计可能过高的风险。目前的轨迹表明，2022年和2023年的增长将大幅低于预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的交易价格是2021年普遍盈利预期的87倍，是2022年普遍盈利预期的62倍。请记住，这些是非GAAP（公认会计原则）盈利预测。根据公认会计准则，Palantir继续亏损生产。2021年第三季度报告的亏损为9200万美元，2021年前9个月为3.52亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>使用非公认会计准则盈利预测，从历史市场角度来看，87倍的本年度盈利和62倍的预期盈利是极端估值。也就是说，它们是近年来成长型股票的可能性范围内的。考虑到Palantir迅速放缓的销售和营业收入增长率，以及共识估计可能过高的风险增加，目前共识估计的估值倍数几乎没有出错的余地。</blockquote></p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>在销售方面，Palantir的估值是2021年普遍收入预期的17倍，是2022年的13倍。从历史角度来看，对于大盘股公司来说，这些是极端的市销率倍数。我对核心销售增长趋势为20%（不包括被投资方收入）的估计表明，这些销售估值倍数也几乎没有误差。</blockquote></p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><blockquote>再加上营业收入增长迅速放缓，估值风险进一步上升。此外，从我截至2021年第三季度调整后的毛利率增长25%可以看出，Palantir的商业模式可能不支持历史上极端的市销率估值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然基本面背景表明误差幅度很小，超额回报潜力减弱，但技术设置表明更有意义的上行回报潜力。下面的3年周线图提供了潜在技术回报谱的鸟瞰图。我用橙色水平线突出显示了关键阻力位，用绿线突出了主要支撑位。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Palantir 3年周线图。（由Brian Kapp使用Barchart.com的图表创建）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>最近阻力位19美元和22美元的回报潜力分别为43%和65%。下行方面，最近的支撑位于10美元附近的IPO价格区间。该水平的下行回报潜力为-25%。需要注意的是，Palantir 16个月的短暂交易历史限制了技术分析的有用性。此外，由于没有低于IPO价格的交易历史，尚不清楚如果向下突破10美元水平，将在哪里找到支撑。</blockquote></p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计低于10美元的下行潜力，我采用了2022年非GAAP共识盈利预测的40倍市盈率。这一估值是当前市场平均水平的两倍，Palantir股价将达到8美元。这意味着较当前水平的下行风险为-40%。</blockquote></p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p><blockquote>如果2022年39%的普遍盈利预期过高，则有可能从8美元进一步下跌。如果估计过高，为了估计潜在的下行风险，我将相同的40倍非GAAP收益应用于Palantir当前完全纳税、非GAAP盈利能力的年运行率估计。如果2022年盈利增长率为25%（我对截至2021年第三季度调整后毛利润增长率的估计），而我对当前调整后税后盈利年增长率的估计为0.12美元，那么该股的交易价格可能会跌至6美元。这意味着下行风险为-55%。</blockquote></p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>下面的日线图详细介绍了技术背景。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><blockquote>技术面显示19美元至22美元之间存在较大阻力。鉴于过去三个月的持续下跌趋势，近期可能会出现反弹。也就是说，上行的技术潜力与下行的基本面潜力相结合，使该股在短期内具有65%至-55%的平衡潜在回报范围。</blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，Palantir应该被列入高风险成长型投资者的观察名单。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，由于出现了明显的危险信号，因此需要谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升（误差幅度有限）。由此产生的风险和回报之间的对称性导致中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196927717","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.agawa288/iStock via Getty ImagesI am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.Risk/Reward Rating: NeutralPalantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.Customer DetailPalantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxSource: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxFor ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.InvesteesIt is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.Financial PerformanceTurning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.Geographic & Segment SalesThe sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.Gross Profit & KPIPalantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.Operating IncomeTurning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.Consensus Growth EstimatesIf Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.ValuationPalantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.TechnicalsWhile the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.SummaryAll told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":870,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":872877461,"gmtCreate":1637492877665,"gmtModify":1637492916847,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087870165979230","authorIdStr":"4087870165979230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872877461","repostId":"1156888846","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156888846","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637465976,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156888846?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-21 11:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Ford Is Terminating Its Joint EV Development Plan With Rivian?<blockquote>为什么福特终止与Rivian的联合电动汽车开发计划？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156888846","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Ford Motor Company, which is one of the early backers of EV startup Rivian Automotive, Inc., is shel","content":"<p><div> Ford Motor Company, which is one of the early backers of EV startup Rivian Automotive, Inc., is shelving its plan to develop an EV with the latter altogether. What Happened:As Ford steps on the gas on...</p><p><blockquote><div>福特汽车公司是电动汽车初创公司Rivian汽车公司的早期支持者之一，该公司正在完全搁置与后者开发电动汽车的计划。发生了什么：当福特踩下油门时...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/11/24209309/why-ford-is-terminating-its-joint-ev-development-plan-with-rivian\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/11/24209309/why-ford-is-terminating-its-joint-ev-development-plan-with-rivian\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Ford Is Terminating Its Joint EV Development Plan With Rivian?<blockquote>为什么福特终止与Rivian的联合电动汽车开发计划？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Ford Is Terminating Its Joint EV Development Plan With Rivian?<blockquote>为什么福特终止与Rivian的联合电动汽车开发计划？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-21 11:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Ford Motor Company, which is one of the early backers of EV startup Rivian Automotive, Inc., is shelving its plan to develop an EV with the latter altogether. What Happened:As Ford steps on the gas on...</p><p><blockquote><div>福特汽车公司是电动汽车初创公司Rivian汽车公司的早期支持者之一，该公司正在完全搁置与后者开发电动汽车的计划。发生了什么：当福特踩下油门时...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/11/24209309/why-ford-is-terminating-its-joint-ev-development-plan-with-rivian\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/11/24209309/why-ford-is-terminating-its-joint-ev-development-plan-with-rivian\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/11/24209309/why-ford-is-terminating-its-joint-ev-development-plan-with-rivian\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/11/24209309/why-ford-is-terminating-its-joint-ev-development-plan-with-rivian","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156888846","content_text":"Ford Motor Company, which is one of the early backers of EV startup Rivian Automotive, Inc., is shelving its plan to develop an EV with the latter altogether.\nWhat Happened:As Ford steps on the gas on its EV transition, the Detroit-based automaker has decided to abandon it plans to jointly develop an EV with Rivian, CEO Jim Farley said in an interview with Automotive News.\nFarley said Ford expects to produce 600,000 vehicles per year by the end of 2023.\nWhen Ford initially invested $500 million in Rivian in 2019, it envisaged developing a Ford branded EV that will come with Rivian's skateboard powertrain. In early 2020, the companies said they are shelving the plans for a Lincoln-branded EV but would go ahead with an alternative vehicle based on Rivian technology.\nThe Ford CEO suggested in the interview that the company is now increasingly confident in competing in the EV space by itself. Another handicap that forced the going-solo decision was the complexities involved in integrating the hardware and software together.\nWhy It's Important:Rivian shares debuted on Wall Street on Nov. 10 following aninitial public offeringat a bumper valuation of over $100 billion. The company's strong debut and the subsequent run up in shares have raised eyebrows over its valuation which has taken it past the market capitalization of legacy U.S. automakers, including Ford.\nRivian's product pipeline consists of RIT, an EV pickup truck, which it began delivering to customers in September. As of Oct. 30, the company produced 180 R1Ts and delivered 156 R1Ts, with the bulk of them going to the company's employees.\nThe company noted that at the end of October, it had preorders of about 55,400 R1Ts and R1Ss. It expects to fill the preorder backlog by the end of 2023.\nFord, for its part, has doubled on itsEV strategyand invested big dollars into its transition toward EVs.\n\"We respect Rivian and have had extensive exploratory discussions with them, however, both sides have agreed not to pursue any kind of joint vehicle development or platform sharing,\" Ford said in an emailed statement to media.\nRivian, meanwhile, confirmed that it is a mutual decision to focus on each of their own projects and deliveries, given Ford has scaled its own EV strategy and demand for Rivian vehicles has grown.\n\"Our relationship with Ford is an important part of our journey, and Ford remains an investor and ally on our shared path to an electrified future\" a Rivian spokesperson said.\nRivian closed Friday's session up 4.23% at $128.60, while Ford closed down 0.87% at $19.39.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":507,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821646519,"gmtCreate":1633743395749,"gmtModify":1633743396455,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087870165979230","authorIdStr":"4087870165979230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821646519","repostId":"1100565546","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100565546","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633734823,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100565546?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-09 07:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 ends lower after U.S. September jobs miss<blockquote>美国9月份就业机会未达预期，标普500收低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100565546","media":"Reuters","summary":" - The S&P 500 ended lower on Friday after data showed weaker jobs growth than expected in September, yet investors still expected the Federal Reserve to begin tapering asset purchases this year.Wall Street’s three main indexes were mixed for much of the session before losing ground toward the end. All three indexes posted weekly gains.Comcast Corp tumbled after Wells Fargo cut its price target on the media company, while Charter Communications Inc fell after Wells Fargo downgraded that cable op","content":"<p>(Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended lower on Friday after data showed weaker jobs growth than expected in September, yet investors still expected the Federal Reserve to begin tapering asset purchases this year.</p><p><blockquote>路透标普500周五收低，此前数据显示9月就业增长弱于预期，但投资者仍预计美联储今年将开始缩减资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s three main indexes were mixed for much of the session before losing ground toward the end. All three indexes posted weekly gains.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街三大主要股指在盘中大部分时间涨跌互现，但在接近尾声时有所下跌。三个指数均录得周线上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Comcast Corp tumbled after Wells Fargo cut its price target on the media company, while Charter Communications Inc fell after Wells Fargo downgraded that cable operator to “underweight” from “overweight”.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行下调康卡斯特公司的目标股价后，康卡斯特公司股价暴跌；富国银行将有线电视运营商的评级从“跑赢大盘”下调至“跑输大盘”后，Charter Communications Inc股价下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies were among the biggest drags on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司都是标普500和纳斯达克最大的拖累之一。</blockquote></p><p> Real estate and utilities were the poorest performers among 11 S&amp;P 500 sector indexes, down 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>在11个标普500行业指数中，房地产和公用事业表现最差，分别下跌1.1%和0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 energy sector index jumped 3.1%, with oil up more than 4% on the week as a global energy crunch has boosted prices to their highest since 2014.</p><p><blockquote>标普500能源板块指数上涨3.1%，油价本周上涨超过4%，因全球能源紧缩将价格推高至2014年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Chevron and Exxon Mobil rallied more than 2% and were among the companies giving the S&amp;P 500 the greatest lift.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛龙和埃克森美孚股价上涨超过2%，是对标普500提振最大的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report showed the U.S. economy in September created the fewest jobs in nine months as hiring dropped at schools and some businesses were short of workers. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8% from 5.2% in August and average hourly earnings rose 0.6%, which was more than expected.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部的非农就业报告显示，美国经济9月份创造的就业岗位为九个月来最少，原因是学校招聘人数下降，一些企业缺乏工人。失业率从8月份的5.2%降至4.8%，平均时薪增长0.6%，超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> “I think that the Federal Reserve made it very clear that they don’t need a blockbuster jobs report to taper in November,” said Kathy Lien, Managing Director at BK Asset Management in New York. “I think the Fed remains on track.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约BK资产管理公司董事总经理凯西·连恩(Kathy Lien)表示：“我认为美联储非常明确地表示，他们不需要一份重磅的就业报告就可以在11月份缩减规模。”“我认为美联储仍在正轨上。”</blockquote></p><p> Futures on the federal funds rate priced in a quarter-point tightening by the Federal Reserve by November or December next year.</p><p><blockquote>联邦基金利率期货预计美联储将在明年11月或12月收紧25个基点。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.03% to end at 34,746.25 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.19% to 4,391.35.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.03%，收于34,746.25点；标普500下跌0.19%，收于4,391.35点。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.51% to 14,579.54.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.51%，至14,579.54点。</blockquote></p><p> For the week, the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.8%, the Dow added 1.2% and the Nasdaq gained 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>本周，标普500上涨0.8%，道琼斯指数上涨1.2%，纳斯达克上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Third-quarter reporting season kicks off next week, with JPMorgan Chase and other big banks among the first to post results. Investors are focused on global supply chain problems and labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度财报季将于下周拉开帷幕，摩根大通和其他大银行将率先公布业绩。投资者关注全球供应链问题和劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts see Q3 U.S. earnings growth of 30%:</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计美国第三季度盈利增长30%：</blockquote></p><p> Analysts on average expect S&amp;P 500 earnings per share for the quarter to be up almost 30%, according to Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的数据，分析师平均预计标普500本季度每股收益将增长近30%。</blockquote></p><p> “I think it’s going to be a dicey earnings season,” warned Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi in New York. “If supply-chain issues are driving up costs, a company with strong pricing power can pass through those rising costs. But you can’t pass through a labor shortage if you can’t find workers to hire.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约SoFi投资策略主管Liz Young警告说：“我认为这将是一个充满风险的财报季。”“如果供应链问题推高了成本，拥有强大定价权的公司可以转嫁这些上涨的成本。但如果你找不到工人来雇佣，你就无法转嫁劳动力短缺。”</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.24-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.52-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.24比1；在纳斯达克，1.52比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 26 new 52-week highs and 3 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 113 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下26个52周新高和3个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得86个新高和113个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.2 billion shares, compared with the 11 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为92亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为110亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 ends lower after U.S. September jobs miss<blockquote>美国9月份就业机会未达预期，标普500收低</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 ends lower after U.S. September jobs miss<blockquote>美国9月份就业机会未达预期，标普500收低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-09 07:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 ended lower on Friday after data showed weaker jobs growth than expected in September, yet investors still expected the Federal Reserve to begin tapering asset purchases this year.</p><p><blockquote>路透标普500周五收低，此前数据显示9月就业增长弱于预期，但投资者仍预计美联储今年将开始缩减资产购买规模。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street’s three main indexes were mixed for much of the session before losing ground toward the end. All three indexes posted weekly gains.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街三大主要股指在盘中大部分时间涨跌互现，但在接近尾声时有所下跌。三个指数均录得周线上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Comcast Corp tumbled after Wells Fargo cut its price target on the media company, while Charter Communications Inc fell after Wells Fargo downgraded that cable operator to “underweight” from “overweight”.</p><p><blockquote>富国银行下调康卡斯特公司的目标股价后，康卡斯特公司股价暴跌；富国银行将有线电视运营商的评级从“跑赢大盘”下调至“跑输大盘”后，Charter Communications Inc股价下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Both companies were among the biggest drags on the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq.</p><p><blockquote>这两家公司都是标普500和纳斯达克最大的拖累之一。</blockquote></p><p> Real estate and utilities were the poorest performers among 11 S&amp;P 500 sector indexes, down 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>在11个标普500行业指数中，房地产和公用事业表现最差，分别下跌1.1%和0.7%。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 energy sector index jumped 3.1%, with oil up more than 4% on the week as a global energy crunch has boosted prices to their highest since 2014.</p><p><blockquote>标普500能源板块指数上涨3.1%，油价本周上涨超过4%，因全球能源紧缩将价格推高至2014年以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> Chevron and Exxon Mobil rallied more than 2% and were among the companies giving the S&amp;P 500 the greatest lift.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛龙和埃克森美孚股价上涨超过2%，是对标普500提振最大的公司之一。</blockquote></p><p> The Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report showed the U.S. economy in September created the fewest jobs in nine months as hiring dropped at schools and some businesses were short of workers. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8% from 5.2% in August and average hourly earnings rose 0.6%, which was more than expected.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部的非农就业报告显示，美国经济9月份创造的就业岗位为九个月来最少，原因是学校招聘人数下降，一些企业缺乏工人。失业率从8月份的5.2%降至4.8%，平均时薪增长0.6%，超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> “I think that the Federal Reserve made it very clear that they don’t need a blockbuster jobs report to taper in November,” said Kathy Lien, Managing Director at BK Asset Management in New York. “I think the Fed remains on track.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约BK资产管理公司董事总经理凯西·连恩(Kathy Lien)表示：“我认为美联储非常明确地表示，他们不需要一份重磅的就业报告就可以在11月份缩减规模。”“我认为美联储仍在正轨上。”</blockquote></p><p> Futures on the federal funds rate priced in a quarter-point tightening by the Federal Reserve by November or December next year.</p><p><blockquote>联邦基金利率期货预计美联储将在明年11月或12月收紧25个基点。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.03% to end at 34,746.25 points, while the S&amp;P 500 lost 0.19% to 4,391.35.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.03%，收于34,746.25点；标普500下跌0.19%，收于4,391.35点。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.51% to 14,579.54.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.51%，至14,579.54点。</blockquote></p><p> For the week, the S&amp;P 500 rose 0.8%, the Dow added 1.2% and the Nasdaq gained 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>本周，标普500上涨0.8%，道琼斯指数上涨1.2%，纳斯达克上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Third-quarter reporting season kicks off next week, with JPMorgan Chase and other big banks among the first to post results. Investors are focused on global supply chain problems and labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度财报季将于下周拉开帷幕，摩根大通和其他大银行将率先公布业绩。投资者关注全球供应链问题和劳动力短缺。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts see Q3 U.S. earnings growth of 30%:</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计美国第三季度盈利增长30%：</blockquote></p><p> Analysts on average expect S&amp;P 500 earnings per share for the quarter to be up almost 30%, according to Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的数据，分析师平均预计标普500本季度每股收益将增长近30%。</blockquote></p><p> “I think it’s going to be a dicey earnings season,” warned Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi in New York. “If supply-chain issues are driving up costs, a company with strong pricing power can pass through those rising costs. But you can’t pass through a labor shortage if you can’t find workers to hire.”</p><p><blockquote>纽约SoFi投资策略主管Liz Young警告说：“我认为这将是一个充满风险的财报季。”“如果供应链问题推高了成本，拥有强大定价权的公司可以转嫁这些上涨的成本。但如果你找不到工人来雇佣，你就无法转嫁劳动力短缺。”</blockquote></p><p> Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.24-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.52-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所下跌股与上涨股的比例为1.24比1；在纳斯达克，1.52比1的比率有利于下跌股。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 26 new 52-week highs and 3 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 113 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下26个52周新高和3个新低；纳斯达克综合指数录得86个新高和113个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 9.2 billion shares, compared with the 11 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为92亿股，而过去20个交易日的平均成交量为110亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-ends-lower-after-u-s-september-jobs-miss-idUSL1N2R42C9\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-stocks/us-stocks-sp-500-ends-lower-after-u-s-september-jobs-miss-idUSL1N2R42C9","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100565546","content_text":"(Reuters) - The S&P 500 ended lower on Friday after data showed weaker jobs growth than expected in September, yet investors still expected the Federal Reserve to begin tapering asset purchases this year.\nWall Street’s three main indexes were mixed for much of the session before losing ground toward the end. All three indexes posted weekly gains.\nComcast Corp tumbled after Wells Fargo cut its price target on the media company, while Charter Communications Inc fell after Wells Fargo downgraded that cable operator to “underweight” from “overweight”.\nBoth companies were among the biggest drags on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq.\nReal estate and utilities were the poorest performers among 11 S&P 500 sector indexes, down 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively.\nThe S&P 500 energy sector index jumped 3.1%, with oil up more than 4% on the week as a global energy crunch has boosted prices to their highest since 2014.\nChevron and Exxon Mobil rallied more than 2% and were among the companies giving the S&P 500 the greatest lift.\nThe Labor Department’s nonfarm payrolls report showed the U.S. economy in September created the fewest jobs in nine months as hiring dropped at schools and some businesses were short of workers. The unemployment rate fell to 4.8% from 5.2% in August and average hourly earnings rose 0.6%, which was more than expected.\n“I think that the Federal Reserve made it very clear that they don’t need a blockbuster jobs report to taper in November,” said Kathy Lien, Managing Director at BK Asset Management in New York. “I think the Fed remains on track.”\nFutures on the federal funds rate priced in a quarter-point tightening by the Federal Reserve by November or December next year.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped 0.03% to end at 34,746.25 points, while the S&P 500 lost 0.19% to 4,391.35.\nThe Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.51% to 14,579.54.\nFor the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.8%, the Dow added 1.2% and the Nasdaq gained 0.1%.\nThird-quarter reporting season kicks off next week, with JPMorgan Chase and other big banks among the first to post results. Investors are focused on global supply chain problems and labor shortages.\nAnalysts see Q3 U.S. earnings growth of 30%:\nAnalysts on average expect S&P 500 earnings per share for the quarter to be up almost 30%, according to Refinitiv.\n“I think it’s going to be a dicey earnings season,” warned Liz Young, head of investment strategy at SoFi in New York. “If supply-chain issues are driving up costs, a company with strong pricing power can pass through those rising costs. But you can’t pass through a labor shortage if you can’t find workers to hire.”\nDeclining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.24-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.52-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 26 new 52-week highs and 3 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 86 new highs and 113 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 9.2 billion shares, compared with the 11 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":493,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":896636977,"gmtCreate":1628575852399,"gmtModify":1631893255787,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087870165979230","authorIdStr":"4087870165979230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896636977","repostId":"2155377091","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":445,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802118992,"gmtCreate":1627731597716,"gmtModify":1633756753063,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087870165979230","authorIdStr":"4087870165979230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802118992","repostId":"2155001152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":695840618,"gmtCreate":1641429189634,"gmtModify":1641429189927,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087870165979230","authorIdStr":"4087870165979230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695840618","repostId":"2201255535","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843476153,"gmtCreate":1635855231037,"gmtModify":1635855231153,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087870165979230","authorIdStr":"4087870165979230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843476153","repostId":"1157243153","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157243153","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635853446,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157243153?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-02 19:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Crypto stocks rose in premarket trading<blockquote>加密货币股票在盘前交易中上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157243153","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Crypto stocks rose in premarket trading after bitcoin hitting high, up 4.5% to $63,400.Bit Digital,B","content":"<p>Crypto stocks rose in premarket trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;bitcoin hitting high, up 4.5% to $63,400.Bit Digital,Bit Mining,Marathon Digital,SoS Ltd,Riot Blockchain,Coinbase,The9 and Canaan climbed between 1% and 4%.</p><p><blockquote>比特币触及高点后，加密货币股在盘前交易中上涨，上涨4.5%至63,400美元。Bit Digital、Bit Mining、Marathon Digital、SoS Ltd、Riot Blockchain、Coinbase、第九城市和迦南股价上涨1%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193376975f1716a6566898702709d14a\" tg-width=\"408\" tg-height=\"483\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrypto stocks rose in premarket trading<blockquote>加密货币股票在盘前交易中上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-02 19:44</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Crypto stocks rose in premarket trading&nbsp;after&nbsp;bitcoin hitting high, up 4.5% to $63,400.Bit Digital,Bit Mining,Marathon Digital,SoS Ltd,Riot Blockchain,Coinbase,The9 and Canaan climbed between 1% and 4%.</p><p><blockquote>比特币触及高点后，加密货币股在盘前交易中上涨，上涨4.5%至63,400美元。Bit Digital、Bit Mining、Marathon Digital、SoS Ltd、Riot Blockchain、Coinbase、第九城市和迦南股价上涨1%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/193376975f1716a6566898702709d14a\" tg-width=\"408\" tg-height=\"483\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CAN":"嘉楠科技","MARA":"MARA Holdings","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","SOS":"SOS Limited","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","NCTY":"第九城市"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157243153","content_text":"Crypto stocks rose in premarket trading after bitcoin hitting high, up 4.5% to $63,400.Bit Digital,Bit Mining,Marathon Digital,SoS Ltd,Riot Blockchain,Coinbase,The9 and Canaan climbed between 1% and 4%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CAN":0.9,"RIOT":0.9,"NCTY":0.9,"COIN":0.9,"BTBT":0.9,"MARA":0.9,"SOS":0.9,"BTCM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":476,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864662954,"gmtCreate":1633098288104,"gmtModify":1633098288448,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087870165979230","authorIdStr":"4087870165979230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864662954","repostId":"1145898013","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145898013","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633095114,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145898013?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-01 21:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks rebound to start October on Merck’s promising oral Covid pill<blockquote>默克公司推出前景光明的口服新冠药物，股市将于10月初反弹</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145898013","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"WASHINGTON(Reuters)-U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in August, but a downward re","content":"<p>WASHINGTON(Reuters)-U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in August, but a downward revision to July data kept intact expectations that economic growth slowed in the third quarter as a resurgence in COVID-19 infections curbed demand for services.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿（路透社）-美国。8月份消费者支出增幅超过预期，但对7月份数据的下修保持了对第三季度经济增长放缓的预期不变，因为COVID-19感染的死灰复燃抑制了对服务的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Dow added 260 points, or 0.8%. The S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0651731f7c9f3c7130af900f3a9a0f3a\" tg-width=\"1352\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Shares of Dow member Merck<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">$(MRK)$</a> jumped 8% after the drug maker and Ridgeback Biotherapeuticssaid their oral antiviral treatment for Covid-19reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 50% for patients with mild or moderate cases. The companies plan to seek emergency authorization for the treatment.The Commerce Department said on Friday that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rebounded 0.8% in August, shrugging off declining motor vehicle sales caused by a global shortage of semiconductors, which is undercutting the production of automobiles.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数上涨260点，涨幅0.8%。标普500和纳斯达克综合指数分别上涨0.5%和0.2%。道指成员默克公司的股票<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">$(MRK)$</a>该制药商和Ridgeback Biotherapeutics表示，他们针对COVID-19的口服抗病毒治疗将轻度或中度病例患者的住院或死亡风险降低了50%，股价上涨了8%。两家公司计划寻求治疗的紧急授权。美国商务部周五表示，占美国经济活动三分之二以上的消费者支出8月份反弹0.8%，摆脱了全球半导体短缺导致的汽车销量下降的影响，半导体短缺正在削弱汽车产量。</blockquote></p><p> The new drug from Merck appeared to boost travel stocks. Shares of Royal Caribbean and Las Vegas Sands added more than 1% in premarket trading. Southwest Airlines led a gain in airline stocks after JPMorganupgraded the stockand said most of the group was worth buying for a trade.</p><p><blockquote>默克公司的新药似乎提振了旅游股。皇家加勒比和拉斯维加斯金沙集团的股价在盘前交易中上涨超过1%。摩根大通上调西南航空股票评级并表示该集团大部分股票值得购买后，西南航空领涨航空股。</blockquote></p><p> The 10-year Treasury yield fell back below 1.50% in early trading. Futures on the tech-heavy Nasdaq went into the green as yields fell.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率早盘回落至1.50%以下。随着收益率下降，以科技股为主的纳斯达克期货上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The market just capped a tumultuous September as inflation fears, slowing growth and rising rates kept investors on edge. The S&amp;P 500 finished the month down 4.8%, breaking a seven-month winning streak. The Dow and the Nasdaq Composite fell 4.3% and 5.3%, respectively, suffering their worst months of the year.</p><p><blockquote>由于通胀担忧、经济增长放缓和利率上升让投资者感到紧张，市场刚刚结束了动荡的九月。标普500本月收盘下跌4.8%，打破了七个月的连涨势头。道琼斯指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别下跌4.3%和5.3%，遭遇今年最糟糕的月份。</blockquote></p><p> “A combination of slowing growth, less accommodative monetary policy, China headwinds, fading fiscal stimulus, and nagging supply chain bottlenecks all conspired to weigh on investor sentiment as we head into fall and 4Q21,” Chris Hussey, a managing director at Goldman Sachs, said in a note.</p><p><blockquote>高盛董事总经理Chris Hussey表示：“随着我们进入秋季和2021年第四季度，经济增长放缓、货币政策宽松程度降低、中国逆风、财政刺激减弱以及供应链瓶颈的困扰，所有这些因素共同打压了投资者的情绪。”在一份说明中说。</blockquote></p><p> Consumer spending grew at a robust 12.0% annualized rate in the second quarter, accounting for much of the economy's 6.7% growth pace, which raised the level of gross domestic product above its peak in the fourth quarter of 2019. Growth estimates for the third quarter are below a 5.0% rate.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度消费者支出以12.0%的年化增长率强劲增长，占经济6.7%增长率的大部分，这使国内生产总值水平高于2019年第四季度的峰值。第三季度的增长率预期低于5.0%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Consumer momentum should improve in the months ahead, driving the economy closer to a full post-pandemic recovery and keeping inflation hot,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds in New York.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通基金驻纽约首席全球策略师David Kelly表示：“未来几个月，消费者势头应该会有所改善，推动经济更接近疫情后的全面复苏，并保持通胀高温。”</blockquote></p><p> Inflation maintained its upward trend in August. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, climbed 0.3% after increasing by the same margin in July.</p><p><blockquote>8月份通胀保持上升趋势。不包括波动较大的食品和能源成分的个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数继7月份上涨相同幅度后上涨0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> In the 12 months through August, the so-called core PCE price index increased 3.6%, matching July's gain.</p><p><blockquote>在截至8月份的12个月中，所谓的核心PCE价格指数上涨了3.6%，与7月份的涨幅相当。</blockquote></p><p> The core PCE price index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure for its flexible 2% target. The Fed last week upgraded its core PCE inflation projection for this year to 3.7% from 3.0% back in June.</p><p><blockquote>核心PCE物价指数是美联储为其灵活的2%目标而首选的通胀指标。美联储上周将今年核心PCE通胀预期从6月份的3.0%上调至3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. central bank said it would likely begin reducing its monthly bond purchases as soon as November and signaled interest rate increases may follow more quickly than expected.</p><p><blockquote>美联储表示，最早可能在11月开始减少月度债券购买，并暗示加息可能会比预期更快。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers on Thursday that he anticipated some relief from high inflation in the months ahead.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周四对立法者表示，他预计未来几个月高通胀将有所缓解。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks rebound to start October on Merck’s promising oral Covid pill<blockquote>默克公司推出前景光明的口服新冠药物，股市将于10月初反弹</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks rebound to start October on Merck’s promising oral Covid pill<blockquote>默克公司推出前景光明的口服新冠药物，股市将于10月初反弹</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-01 21:31</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>WASHINGTON(Reuters)-U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in August, but a downward revision to July data kept intact expectations that economic growth slowed in the third quarter as a resurgence in COVID-19 infections curbed demand for services.</p><p><blockquote>华盛顿（路透社）-美国。8月份消费者支出增幅超过预期，但对7月份数据的下修保持了对第三季度经济增长放缓的预期不变，因为COVID-19感染的死灰复燃抑制了对服务的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Dow added 260 points, or 0.8%. The S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0651731f7c9f3c7130af900f3a9a0f3a\" tg-width=\"1352\" tg-height=\"448\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Shares of Dow member Merck<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">$(MRK)$</a> jumped 8% after the drug maker and Ridgeback Biotherapeuticssaid their oral antiviral treatment for Covid-19reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 50% for patients with mild or moderate cases. The companies plan to seek emergency authorization for the treatment.The Commerce Department said on Friday that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rebounded 0.8% in August, shrugging off declining motor vehicle sales caused by a global shortage of semiconductors, which is undercutting the production of automobiles.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数上涨260点，涨幅0.8%。标普500和纳斯达克综合指数分别上涨0.5%和0.2%。道指成员默克公司的股票<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">$(MRK)$</a>该制药商和Ridgeback Biotherapeutics表示，他们针对COVID-19的口服抗病毒治疗将轻度或中度病例患者的住院或死亡风险降低了50%，股价上涨了8%。两家公司计划寻求治疗的紧急授权。美国商务部周五表示，占美国经济活动三分之二以上的消费者支出8月份反弹0.8%，摆脱了全球半导体短缺导致的汽车销量下降的影响，半导体短缺正在削弱汽车产量。</blockquote></p><p> The new drug from Merck appeared to boost travel stocks. Shares of Royal Caribbean and Las Vegas Sands added more than 1% in premarket trading. Southwest Airlines led a gain in airline stocks after JPMorganupgraded the stockand said most of the group was worth buying for a trade.</p><p><blockquote>默克公司的新药似乎提振了旅游股。皇家加勒比和拉斯维加斯金沙集团的股价在盘前交易中上涨超过1%。摩根大通上调西南航空股票评级并表示该集团大部分股票值得购买后，西南航空领涨航空股。</blockquote></p><p> The 10-year Treasury yield fell back below 1.50% in early trading. Futures on the tech-heavy Nasdaq went into the green as yields fell.</p><p><blockquote>10年期国债收益率早盘回落至1.50%以下。随着收益率下降，以科技股为主的纳斯达克期货上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The market just capped a tumultuous September as inflation fears, slowing growth and rising rates kept investors on edge. The S&amp;P 500 finished the month down 4.8%, breaking a seven-month winning streak. The Dow and the Nasdaq Composite fell 4.3% and 5.3%, respectively, suffering their worst months of the year.</p><p><blockquote>由于通胀担忧、经济增长放缓和利率上升让投资者感到紧张，市场刚刚结束了动荡的九月。标普500本月收盘下跌4.8%，打破了七个月的连涨势头。道琼斯指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别下跌4.3%和5.3%，遭遇今年最糟糕的月份。</blockquote></p><p> “A combination of slowing growth, less accommodative monetary policy, China headwinds, fading fiscal stimulus, and nagging supply chain bottlenecks all conspired to weigh on investor sentiment as we head into fall and 4Q21,” Chris Hussey, a managing director at Goldman Sachs, said in a note.</p><p><blockquote>高盛董事总经理Chris Hussey表示：“随着我们进入秋季和2021年第四季度，经济增长放缓、货币政策宽松程度降低、中国逆风、财政刺激减弱以及供应链瓶颈的困扰，所有这些因素共同打压了投资者的情绪。”在一份说明中说。</blockquote></p><p> Consumer spending grew at a robust 12.0% annualized rate in the second quarter, accounting for much of the economy's 6.7% growth pace, which raised the level of gross domestic product above its peak in the fourth quarter of 2019. Growth estimates for the third quarter are below a 5.0% rate.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度消费者支出以12.0%的年化增长率强劲增长，占经济6.7%增长率的大部分，这使国内生产总值水平高于2019年第四季度的峰值。第三季度的增长率预期低于5.0%。</blockquote></p><p> \"Consumer momentum should improve in the months ahead, driving the economy closer to a full post-pandemic recovery and keeping inflation hot,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds in New York.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通基金驻纽约首席全球策略师David Kelly表示：“未来几个月，消费者势头应该会有所改善，推动经济更接近疫情后的全面复苏，并保持通胀高温。”</blockquote></p><p> Inflation maintained its upward trend in August. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, climbed 0.3% after increasing by the same margin in July.</p><p><blockquote>8月份通胀保持上升趋势。不包括波动较大的食品和能源成分的个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数继7月份上涨相同幅度后上涨0.3%。</blockquote></p><p> In the 12 months through August, the so-called core PCE price index increased 3.6%, matching July's gain.</p><p><blockquote>在截至8月份的12个月中，所谓的核心PCE价格指数上涨了3.6%，与7月份的涨幅相当。</blockquote></p><p> The core PCE price index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure for its flexible 2% target. The Fed last week upgraded its core PCE inflation projection for this year to 3.7% from 3.0% back in June.</p><p><blockquote>核心PCE物价指数是美联储为其灵活的2%目标而首选的通胀指标。美联储上周将今年核心PCE通胀预期从6月份的3.0%上调至3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. central bank said it would likely begin reducing its monthly bond purchases as soon as November and signaled interest rate increases may follow more quickly than expected.</p><p><blockquote>美联储表示，最早可能在11月开始减少月度债券购买，并暗示加息可能会比预期更快。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers on Thursday that he anticipated some relief from high inflation in the months ahead.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔周四对立法者表示，他预计未来几个月高通胀将有所缓解。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145898013","content_text":"WASHINGTON(Reuters)-U.S. consumer spending increased more than expected in August, but a downward revision to July data kept intact expectations that economic growth slowed in the third quarter as a resurgence in COVID-19 infections curbed demand for services.\nDow added 260 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively.Shares of Dow member Merck$(MRK)$ jumped 8% after the drug maker and Ridgeback Biotherapeuticssaid their oral antiviral treatment for Covid-19reduced the risk of hospitalization or death by 50% for patients with mild or moderate cases. The companies plan to seek emergency authorization for the treatment.The Commerce Department said on Friday that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rebounded 0.8% in August, shrugging off declining motor vehicle sales caused by a global shortage of semiconductors, which is undercutting the production of automobiles.\nThe new drug from Merck appeared to boost travel stocks. Shares of Royal Caribbean and Las Vegas Sands added more than 1% in premarket trading. Southwest Airlines led a gain in airline stocks after JPMorganupgraded the stockand said most of the group was worth buying for a trade.\nThe 10-year Treasury yield fell back below 1.50% in early trading. Futures on the tech-heavy Nasdaq went into the green as yields fell.\nThe market just capped a tumultuous September as inflation fears, slowing growth and rising rates kept investors on edge. The S&P 500 finished the month down 4.8%, breaking a seven-month winning streak. The Dow and the Nasdaq Composite fell 4.3% and 5.3%, respectively, suffering their worst months of the year.\n“A combination of slowing growth, less accommodative monetary policy, China headwinds, fading fiscal stimulus, and nagging supply chain bottlenecks all conspired to weigh on investor sentiment as we head into fall and 4Q21,” Chris Hussey, a managing director at Goldman Sachs, said in a note.\nConsumer spending grew at a robust 12.0% annualized rate in the second quarter, accounting for much of the economy's 6.7% growth pace, which raised the level of gross domestic product above its peak in the fourth quarter of 2019. Growth estimates for the third quarter are below a 5.0% rate.\n\"Consumer momentum should improve in the months ahead, driving the economy closer to a full post-pandemic recovery and keeping inflation hot,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Funds in New York.\nInflation maintained its upward trend in August. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, climbed 0.3% after increasing by the same margin in July.\nIn the 12 months through August, the so-called core PCE price index increased 3.6%, matching July's gain.\nThe core PCE price index is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure for its flexible 2% target. The Fed last week upgraded its core PCE inflation projection for this year to 3.7% from 3.0% back in June.\nThe U.S. central bank said it would likely begin reducing its monthly bond purchases as soon as November and signaled interest rate increases may follow more quickly than expected.\nFed Chair Jerome Powell told lawmakers on Thursday that he anticipated some relief from high inflation in the months ahead.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":431,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608094300,"gmtCreate":1638579180686,"gmtModify":1638579180818,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087870165979230","authorIdStr":"4087870165979230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608094300","repostId":"2188853578","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":495,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":888090814,"gmtCreate":1631411487238,"gmtModify":1631887867014,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087870165979230","authorIdStr":"4087870165979230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888090814","repostId":"2166772293","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":468,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179716055,"gmtCreate":1626576680277,"gmtModify":1633925744350,"author":{"id":"4087870165979230","authorId":"4087870165979230","name":"crystaly","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087870165979230","authorIdStr":"4087870165979230"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hi, pls help to like","listText":"Hi, pls help to like","text":"Hi, pls help to like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179716055","repostId":"1183956332","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}