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2022-01-01

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2022-01-01

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2022-01-01

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2021-12-23

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Labcorp Bolsters Liquid Biopsy Capabilities With $450M PGDx Acquisition<blockquote>Labcorp 以 4.5 亿美元收购 PGDx 增强液体活检能力</blockquote>

2021-12-07

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2021-12-06

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2021-11-24

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2021-11-02

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@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-11-01

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@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-10-31

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@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-10-30

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@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-10-28

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2021-10-23

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What's Next For Snapchat's Stock After Shares Plummet?<blockquote>股价暴跌后，Snapchat 股票的下一步走势如何？</blockquote>

2021-10-14

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AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading<blockquote>AMC院线股价早盘飙升超过 7%</blockquote>

2021-10-08

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2021-10-07

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2021-10-05

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2021-10-04

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2021-09-28

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Apple: It's Never Too Late To Invest In AAPL, Especially As They Buy Back Shares<blockquote>苹果：投资 AAPL 永远不会太晚，尤其是当他们回购股票时</blockquote>

2021-09-27

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ASML: It's Time To Take Profits<blockquote>ASML：是时候获利了结了</blockquote>

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Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1640269130,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1133161256?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Labcorp Bolsters Liquid Biopsy Capabilities With $450M PGDx Acquisition<blockquote>Labcorp 以 4.5 亿美元收购 PGDx 增强液体活检能力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133161256","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Laboratory Corp of America Holdings has agreed to acquire Personal Genome Diagnostics Inc (PGDx), a ","content":"<p><b>Laboratory Corp of America Holdings</b>&nbsp;has agreed to acquire&nbsp;Personal Genome Diagnostics Inc (PGDx), a cancer genomics firm with a portfolio of comprehensive liquid biopsy and tissue-based products.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国实验室控股公司</b>已同意收购 Personal Genome Diagnostics Inc (PGDx)，这是一家癌症基因组学公司，拥有全面的液体活检和组织产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Labcorp will pay $450 million in cash at closing and up to an additional $125 million on achieving future performance milestones.</li>  <li>The addition of PGDx complements &amp; accelerates Labcorp’s existing liquid biopsy capabilities and expands its oncology portfolio of next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based genomic profiling capabilities.</li>  <li>PGDx offers the only diagnostic kit cleared by the FDA for pan-solid cancer comprehensive tumor profiling using a 500+ gene panel.</li>  <li>PGDx 2021 revenues are expected to be approximately $22 million, with projected revenues for 2022 expected to be nearly $40 million.</li>  <li>Labcorp expects the acquisition to be slightly dilutive to its adjusted EPS over the next couple of years and provide returns over its cost of capital by year five.</li>  <li>The transaction is expected to close in 1H of 2022.</li>  <li><b>Price Action</b>: LH shares closed higher by 0.54% at $304.22 on Wednesday.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Labcorp 将在交易结束时支付 4.5 亿美元现金，并在实现未来业绩里程碑时额外支付高达 1.25 亿美元。</li><li>PGDx 的加入补充并加速了 Labcorp 现有的液体活检能力，并扩展了其基于下一代测序 (NGS) 的基因组分析能力的肿瘤学产品组合。</li><li>PGDx提供了唯一一个由FDA批准的诊断试剂盒，用于使用500多个基因面板进行泛实体癌综合肿瘤分析。</li><li>PGDx 2021 年收入预计约为 2200 万美元，2022 年收入预计接近 4000 万美元。</li><li>Labcorp 预计此次收购将在未来几年内略微稀释其调整后每股收益，并在第五年提供超过资本成本的回报。</li><li>该交易预计将于2022年上半年完成。</li><li><b>价格行为</b>: LH 股价周三收盘上涨 0.54%，至 304.22 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Labcorp Bolsters Liquid Biopsy Capabilities With $450M PGDx Acquisition<blockquote>Labcorp 以 4.5 亿美元收购 PGDx 增强液体活检能力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLabcorp Bolsters Liquid Biopsy Capabilities With $450M PGDx Acquisition<blockquote>Labcorp 以 4.5 亿美元收购 PGDx 增强液体活检能力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-23 22:18</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Laboratory Corp of America Holdings</b>&nbsp;has agreed to acquire&nbsp;Personal Genome Diagnostics Inc (PGDx), a cancer genomics firm with a portfolio of comprehensive liquid biopsy and tissue-based products.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国实验室控股公司</b>已同意收购 Personal Genome Diagnostics Inc (PGDx)，这是一家癌症基因组学公司，拥有全面的液体活检和组织产品组合。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Labcorp will pay $450 million in cash at closing and up to an additional $125 million on achieving future performance milestones.</li>  <li>The addition of PGDx complements &amp; accelerates Labcorp’s existing liquid biopsy capabilities and expands its oncology portfolio of next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based genomic profiling capabilities.</li>  <li>PGDx offers the only diagnostic kit cleared by the FDA for pan-solid cancer comprehensive tumor profiling using a 500+ gene panel.</li>  <li>PGDx 2021 revenues are expected to be approximately $22 million, with projected revenues for 2022 expected to be nearly $40 million.</li>  <li>Labcorp expects the acquisition to be slightly dilutive to its adjusted EPS over the next couple of years and provide returns over its cost of capital by year five.</li>  <li>The transaction is expected to close in 1H of 2022.</li>  <li><b>Price Action</b>: LH shares closed higher by 0.54% at $304.22 on Wednesday.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Labcorp 将在交易结束时支付 4.5 亿美元现金，并在实现未来业绩里程碑时额外支付高达 1.25 亿美元。</li><li>PGDx 的加入补充并加速了 Labcorp 现有的液体活检能力，并扩展了其基于下一代测序 (NGS) 的基因组分析能力的肿瘤学产品组合。</li><li>PGDx提供了唯一一个由FDA批准的诊断试剂盒，用于使用500多个基因面板进行泛实体癌综合肿瘤分析。</li><li>PGDx 2021 年收入预计约为 2200 万美元，2022 年收入预计接近 4000 万美元。</li><li>Labcorp 预计此次收购将在未来几年内略微稀释其调整后每股收益，并在第五年提供超过资本成本的回报。</li><li>该交易预计将于2022年上半年完成。</li><li><b>价格行为</b>: LH 股价周三收盘上涨 0.54%，至 304.22 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LH":"徕博科"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133161256","content_text":"Laboratory Corp of America Holdings has agreed to acquire Personal Genome Diagnostics Inc (PGDx), a cancer genomics firm with a portfolio of comprehensive liquid biopsy and tissue-based products.\n\nLabcorp will pay $450 million in cash at closing and up to an additional $125 million on achieving future performance milestones.\nThe addition of PGDx complements & accelerates Labcorp’s existing liquid biopsy capabilities and expands its oncology portfolio of next-generation sequencing (NGS)-based genomic profiling capabilities.\nPGDx offers the only diagnostic kit cleared by the FDA for pan-solid cancer comprehensive tumor profiling using a 500+ gene panel.\nPGDx 2021 revenues are expected to be approximately $22 million, with projected revenues for 2022 expected to be nearly $40 million.\nLabcorp expects the acquisition to be slightly dilutive to its adjusted EPS over the next couple of years and provide returns over its cost of capital by year five.\nThe transaction is expected to close in 1H of 2022.\nPrice Action: LH shares closed higher by 0.54% at $304.22 on Wednesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4036,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606221456,"gmtCreate":1638887476337,"gmtModify":1638887489022,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606221456","repostId":"2189263216","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606025129,"gmtCreate":1638802445555,"gmtModify":1638802445625,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606025129","repostId":"1162979405","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874685936,"gmtCreate":1637766581136,"gmtModify":1637766581188,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874685936","repostId":"1119170686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2867,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843671731,"gmtCreate":1635828006922,"gmtModify":1635828006922,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843671731","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3716,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849793070,"gmtCreate":1635776214409,"gmtModify":1635776214409,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849793070","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840505067,"gmtCreate":1635655169910,"gmtModify":1635655169910,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840505067","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4821,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840335439,"gmtCreate":1635586961855,"gmtModify":1635586987544,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840335439","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1021,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854895475,"gmtCreate":1635431555075,"gmtModify":1635431555251,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854895475","repostId":"1153391346","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1058,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858181565,"gmtCreate":1635004111422,"gmtModify":1635004111535,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858181565","repostId":"2177411104","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2177411104","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1634951923,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2177411104?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-23 09:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What's Next For Snapchat's Stock After Shares Plummet?<blockquote>股价暴跌后，Snapchat 股票的下一步走势如何？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2177411104","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Snap Inc. (NYSE:SNAP) traded significantly lower Friday after the company announced worse-than-expec","content":"<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>.</b> (NYSE:SNAP)&nbsp;traded significantly lower Friday after the company announced worse-than-expected third-quarter revenue results and issued fourth-quarter guidance below estimates.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap公司</a>.</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SNAP）周五大幅走低，此前该公司公布的第三季度营收业绩逊于预期，并发布的第四季度指引低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a9cded23c2f1ffb8ef7847de216128\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"375\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Snap reported quarterly earnings of 17 cents per share, beating the estimate of 8 cents per share. The company reported quarterly revenue of $1.07 billion, under the estimate of $1.1 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Snap公布的季度收益为每股 17 美分，超出了每股 8 美分的预期。该公司公布季度收入为 10.7 亿美元，低于 11 亿美元的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Snap plunged&nbsp;26.6% to $55.14&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>Snap周五暴跌 26.6%，至 55.14 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Snap Daily Chart Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Snap日线图分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Snap shares fell back into a sideways channel that it once traded in. The stock looked to have broken above the channel but after missing expectations, saw a large drop.</li>  <li>Support was found near the $48 level in the past and may be found near here again in the future. Resistance has been found near $65 in the past and may hold again in the future.</li>  <li>The stock trades below both the 50-day moving average (green)&nbsp;and the 200-day moving average (blue), indicating the stock’s sentiment has been bearish.</li>  <li>Each of these moving averages may hold as an area of support in the future.</li>  <li>The Relative Strength Index (RSI) saw a drop off down to the 26 level. This big drop pushed the stock into the oversold area where there are many more sellers than buyers.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a69db5658d520ff198ad68441975a71f\" tg-width=\"2060\" tg-height=\"1314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Snap股价回落至曾经交易的横盘通道。该股看起来已经突破通道上方，但在未达到预期后出现大幅下跌。</li><li>过去在 48 美元水平附近找到了支撑，未来可能会在此附近再次找到支撑。过去在65美元附近发现了阻力位，未来可能会再次持有。</li><li>该股交易价格均低于 50 天移动平均线（绿色）和 200 天移动平均线（蓝色），表明该股情绪一直看跌。</li><li>这些移动平均线中的每一个都可能在未来成为支撑区域。</li><li>相对强弱指数（RSI）跌至26水平。这一大幅下跌将该股推入超卖区域，卖家多于买家。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>What’s Next For Snap?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Snap的下一步是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> Bullish traders want to see snap start to recover from the large drop and start to form higher lows once again. Bulls are then looking for higher lows up to the resistance line before the resistance is broken. If the resistance can hold as support the stock may be ready for a large gap up.</p><p><blockquote>看涨交易者希望看到snap开始从大幅下跌中恢复过来，并再次开始形成更高的低点。然后，多头在阻力被突破之前寻找更高的低点，直至阻力线。如果阻力位能够保持为支撑位，那么该股可能已经准备好迎接大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Bearish traders are looking to see the stock continue to fade lower and eventually fall below the pattern support. If the pattern support could hold as an area of resistance, the stock could see further downward pushes in the future.</p><p><blockquote>看跌交易者希望看到该股继续走低，并最终跌破形态支撑位。如果形态支撑能够作为阻力区域，该股未来可能会进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What's Next For Snapchat's Stock After Shares Plummet?<blockquote>股价暴跌后，Snapchat 股票的下一步走势如何？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat's Next For Snapchat's Stock After Shares Plummet?<blockquote>股价暴跌后，Snapchat 股票的下一步走势如何？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-23 09:18</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap Inc</a>.</b> (NYSE:SNAP)&nbsp;traded significantly lower Friday after the company announced worse-than-expected third-quarter revenue results and issued fourth-quarter guidance below estimates.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNAP\">Snap公司</a>.</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SNAP）周五大幅走低，此前该公司公布的第三季度营收业绩逊于预期，并发布的第四季度指引低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a9cded23c2f1ffb8ef7847de216128\" tg-width=\"685\" tg-height=\"375\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Snap reported quarterly earnings of 17 cents per share, beating the estimate of 8 cents per share. The company reported quarterly revenue of $1.07 billion, under the estimate of $1.1 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Snap公布的季度收益为每股 17 美分，超出了每股 8 美分的预期。该公司公布季度收入为 10.7 亿美元，低于 11 亿美元的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Snap plunged&nbsp;26.6% to $55.14&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday.</p><p><blockquote>Snap周五暴跌 26.6%，至 55.14 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Snap Daily Chart Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Snap日线图分析</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Snap shares fell back into a sideways channel that it once traded in. The stock looked to have broken above the channel but after missing expectations, saw a large drop.</li>  <li>Support was found near the $48 level in the past and may be found near here again in the future. Resistance has been found near $65 in the past and may hold again in the future.</li>  <li>The stock trades below both the 50-day moving average (green)&nbsp;and the 200-day moving average (blue), indicating the stock’s sentiment has been bearish.</li>  <li>Each of these moving averages may hold as an area of support in the future.</li>  <li>The Relative Strength Index (RSI) saw a drop off down to the 26 level. This big drop pushed the stock into the oversold area where there are many more sellers than buyers.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a69db5658d520ff198ad68441975a71f\" tg-width=\"2060\" tg-height=\"1314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Snap股价回落至曾经交易的横盘通道。该股看起来已经突破通道上方，但在未达到预期后出现大幅下跌。</li><li>过去在 48 美元水平附近找到了支撑，未来可能会在此附近再次找到支撑。过去在65美元附近发现了阻力位，未来可能会再次持有。</li><li>该股交易价格均低于 50 天移动平均线（绿色）和 200 天移动平均线（蓝色），表明该股情绪一直看跌。</li><li>这些移动平均线中的每一个都可能在未来成为支撑区域。</li><li>相对强弱指数（RSI）跌至26水平。这一大幅下跌将该股推入超卖区域，卖家多于买家。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <b>What’s Next For Snap?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Snap的下一步是什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> Bullish traders want to see snap start to recover from the large drop and start to form higher lows once again. Bulls are then looking for higher lows up to the resistance line before the resistance is broken. If the resistance can hold as support the stock may be ready for a large gap up.</p><p><blockquote>看涨交易者希望看到snap开始从大幅下跌中恢复过来，并再次开始形成更高的低点。然后，多头在阻力被突破之前寻找更高的低点，直至阻力线。如果阻力位能够保持为支撑位，那么该股可能已经准备好迎接大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Bearish traders are looking to see the stock continue to fade lower and eventually fall below the pattern support. If the pattern support could hold as an area of resistance, the stock could see further downward pushes in the future.</p><p><blockquote>看跌交易者希望看到该股继续走低，并最终跌破形态支撑位。如果形态支撑能够作为阻力区域，该股未来可能会进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNAP":"Snap Inc"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2177411104","content_text":"Snap Inc. (NYSE:SNAP) traded significantly lower Friday after the company announced worse-than-expected third-quarter revenue results and issued fourth-quarter guidance below estimates.\n\nSnap reported quarterly earnings of 17 cents per share, beating the estimate of 8 cents per share. The company reported quarterly revenue of $1.07 billion, under the estimate of $1.1 billion.\nSnap plunged 26.6% to $55.14 on Friday.\nSnap Daily Chart Analysis\n\nSnap shares fell back into a sideways channel that it once traded in. The stock looked to have broken above the channel but after missing expectations, saw a large drop.\nSupport was found near the $48 level in the past and may be found near here again in the future. Resistance has been found near $65 in the past and may hold again in the future.\nThe stock trades below both the 50-day moving average (green) and the 200-day moving average (blue), indicating the stock’s sentiment has been bearish.\nEach of these moving averages may hold as an area of support in the future.\nThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) saw a drop off down to the 26 level. This big drop pushed the stock into the oversold area where there are many more sellers than buyers.\n\n\nWhat’s Next For Snap?\nBullish traders want to see snap start to recover from the large drop and start to form higher lows once again. Bulls are then looking for higher lows up to the resistance line before the resistance is broken. If the resistance can hold as support the stock may be ready for a large gap up.\nBearish traders are looking to see the stock continue to fade lower and eventually fall below the pattern support. If the pattern support could hold as an area of resistance, the stock could see further downward pushes in the future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNAP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825626503,"gmtCreate":1634222741225,"gmtModify":1634222741225,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825626503","repostId":"1137577394","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137577394","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1634222446,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137577394?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-14 22:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading<blockquote>AMC院线股价早盘飙升超过 7%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137577394","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading as Halloween movies hit theaters.\n\nAM","content":"<p>AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading&nbsp;as Halloween movies hit theaters.</p><p><blockquote>随着万圣节电影上映，AMC院线股价在早盘交易中飙升超过 7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/825eb98d1defb7af0ffac3be4884f45a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> AMC has extended its recent trend as the stock continues to find support after free falling for the past month.<b>On Wednesday, shares of AMC gained a further 2.96% and closed the trading session at $37.91.</b>There has been some mounting momentum for the meme stock as of late, as the buzz in internet chat rooms and Reddit boards is pointing towards another attempt at a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>随着该股在过去一个月自由下跌后继续寻找支撑，AMC 延续了近期的趋势。<b>周三，AMC 股价进一步上涨 2.96%，收于 37.91 美元。</b>最近，随着互联网聊天室和 Reddit 论坛上的热议指向另一次逼空尝试，模因股票的势头越来越大。</blockquote></p><p> AMC apes were once again able to get the hashtag #AMCSqueeze trending on social media on Wednesday.<b>The surge in mentions came as the result of an announcement that the SEC is initiating an investigation into Citadel Securities, which is public enemy number one for retail investors.</b>The investigation will look into Citadel’s business practices, which may include things like short selling stocks as well as its relationship with pay to order flow brokerages like Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD).</p><p><blockquote>周三，AMC猿再次能够在社交媒体上获得#AMCSqueeze标签。<b>提及量激增的原因是美国证券交易委员会宣布将对 Citadel Securities 展开调查，该公司是散户投资者的头号公敌。</b>调查将调查 Citadel 的商业行为，其中可能包括卖空股票以及与 Robinhood（纳斯达克股票代码：HOOD）等付费订单流经纪公司的关系。</blockquote></p><p> AMC’s stock should be helped out by strong quarter over quarter and year over year comparisons from the third and fourth quarters of 2020.<b>A slew of new Hollywood movies are set to hit theaters over the next couple of weeks, including the new Halloween Kills film that is kicking off the Halloween season</b>. It should be another big weekend next week as the long awaited Dune film will hit theaters starting on October 22nd.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年第三和第四季度的强劲环比和同比对比应该会对 AMC 的股价有所帮助。<b>一系列新的好莱坞电影将在未来几周内上映，其中包括拉开万圣节季序幕的新万圣节杀戮电影</b>.下周应该又是一个大周末，期待已久的《沙丘》电影将于10月22日上映。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading<blockquote>AMC院线股价早盘飙升超过 7%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading<blockquote>AMC院线股价早盘飙升超过 7%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-14 22:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading&nbsp;as Halloween movies hit theaters.</p><p><blockquote>随着万圣节电影上映，AMC院线股价在早盘交易中飙升超过 7%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/825eb98d1defb7af0ffac3be4884f45a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> AMC has extended its recent trend as the stock continues to find support after free falling for the past month.<b>On Wednesday, shares of AMC gained a further 2.96% and closed the trading session at $37.91.</b>There has been some mounting momentum for the meme stock as of late, as the buzz in internet chat rooms and Reddit boards is pointing towards another attempt at a short squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>随着该股在过去一个月自由下跌后继续寻找支撑，AMC 延续了近期的趋势。<b>周三，AMC 股价进一步上涨 2.96%，收于 37.91 美元。</b>最近，随着互联网聊天室和 Reddit 论坛上的热议指向另一次逼空尝试，模因股票的势头越来越大。</blockquote></p><p> AMC apes were once again able to get the hashtag #AMCSqueeze trending on social media on Wednesday.<b>The surge in mentions came as the result of an announcement that the SEC is initiating an investigation into Citadel Securities, which is public enemy number one for retail investors.</b>The investigation will look into Citadel’s business practices, which may include things like short selling stocks as well as its relationship with pay to order flow brokerages like Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD).</p><p><blockquote>周三，AMC猿再次能够在社交媒体上获得#AMCSqueeze标签。<b>提及量激增的原因是美国证券交易委员会宣布将对 Citadel Securities 展开调查，该公司是散户投资者的头号公敌。</b>调查将调查 Citadel 的商业行为，其中可能包括卖空股票以及与 Robinhood（纳斯达克股票代码：HOOD）等付费订单流经纪公司的关系。</blockquote></p><p> AMC’s stock should be helped out by strong quarter over quarter and year over year comparisons from the third and fourth quarters of 2020.<b>A slew of new Hollywood movies are set to hit theaters over the next couple of weeks, including the new Halloween Kills film that is kicking off the Halloween season</b>. It should be another big weekend next week as the long awaited Dune film will hit theaters starting on October 22nd.</p><p><blockquote>2020 年第三和第四季度的强劲环比和同比对比应该会对 AMC 的股价有所帮助。<b>一系列新的好莱坞电影将在未来几周内上映，其中包括拉开万圣节季序幕的新万圣节杀戮电影</b>.下周应该又是一个大周末，期待已久的《沙丘》电影将于10月22日上映。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137577394","content_text":"AMC Entertainment stock surged more than 7% in morning trading as Halloween movies hit theaters.\n\nAMC has extended its recent trend as the stock continues to find support after free falling for the past month.On Wednesday, shares of AMC gained a further 2.96% and closed the trading session at $37.91.There has been some mounting momentum for the meme stock as of late, as the buzz in internet chat rooms and Reddit boards is pointing towards another attempt at a short squeeze.\nAMC apes were once again able to get the hashtag #AMCSqueeze trending on social media on Wednesday.The surge in mentions came as the result of an announcement that the SEC is initiating an investigation into Citadel Securities, which is public enemy number one for retail investors.The investigation will look into Citadel’s business practices, which may include things like short selling stocks as well as its relationship with pay to order flow brokerages like Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD).\nAMC’s stock should be helped out by strong quarter over quarter and year over year comparisons from the third and fourth quarters of 2020.A slew of new Hollywood movies are set to hit theaters over the next couple of weeks, including the new Halloween Kills film that is kicking off the Halloween season. It should be another big weekend next week as the long awaited Dune film will hit theaters starting on October 22nd.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":821166735,"gmtCreate":1633706397145,"gmtModify":1633706431236,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821166735","repostId":"2173929300","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823621901,"gmtCreate":1633619199260,"gmtModify":1633619202975,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823621901","repostId":"1170599877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829020045,"gmtCreate":1633443924413,"gmtModify":1633443925373,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829020045","repostId":"1129414233","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820170498,"gmtCreate":1633362060747,"gmtModify":1633362060834,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820170498","repostId":"2172996701","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862107135,"gmtCreate":1632841368252,"gmtModify":1632841368252,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862107135","repostId":"1152246777","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152246777","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632839983,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1152246777?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 22:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple: It's Never Too Late To Invest In AAPL, Especially As They Buy Back Shares<blockquote>苹果：投资 AAPL 永远不会太晚，尤其是当他们回购股票时</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152246777","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nGoing into Q4 earnings, Apple is on track to deliver a blowout year, breaking previous mile","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Going into Q4 earnings, Apple is on track to deliver a blowout year, breaking previous milestones from total revenue to net income.</li>  <li>Apple continues to deliver tremendous shareholder value by increasing the amount of capital they plan on allocating to their buyback program.</li>  <li>Compared to their peers, AAPL looks cheap and this recent pullback is an opportunity if you have a long-term time horizon.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ee1636e4c2fc8616107ba5930de843\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Stephen Lam/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>进入第四季度收益，苹果有望实现井喷式的一年，打破之前从总收入到净利润的里程碑。</li><li>苹果通过增加计划分配给回购计划的资本金额，继续为股东创造巨大价值。</li><li>与同行相比，AAPL 看起来很便宜，如果你有长期的时间范围，最近的回调是一个机会。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯蒂芬·林/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)if you have a long-term investment horizon. If you were to go back in time, no matter which milestone was being discussed, from reaching a $500 billion, $1 trillion, or a $2 trillion market cap, AAPL pushed right through the barrier over time. In the future, we will be discussing AAPL reaching a $5 trillion market cap. Don't look at AAPL in the past tense as a company that has undergone several stock splits and grown into a $2.43 trillion company. Look at AAPL as one of the most beloved companies in America that has generated $94.77 billion in Free Cash Flow (FCF) in the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM), with a 5-year average of $67.49 billion FCF. Look at AAPL as a company that produces a 41.66% gross profit margin and a 26.24% profit margin which has correlated to $86.8 billion of net income in the TTM. Most importantly, look at what AAPL has done for its shareholders over the last decade as they have repurchased 9.59 billion shares or 36.58% of the company while paying out $113.4 billion in dividends. Regardless if you missed the previous appreciation AAPL has created for shareholders, if you're a new investor or are a shareholder looking to add to your position, I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>如果您有长期投资视野，我认为购买苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）股票永远不会是一个糟糕的时机。如果你回到过去，无论讨论的是哪个里程碑，从达到 5000 亿美元、1 万亿美元或 2 万亿美元的市值，随着时间的推移，苹果公司已经突破了这一障碍。未来，我们将讨论 AAPL 市值达到 5 万亿美元。不要用过去时态来看待 AAPL，它是一家经历了多次股票分割并成长为一家价值 2.43 万亿美元的公司的公司。AAPL 是美国最受喜爱的公司之一，在过去 12 个月 (TTM) 中产生了 947.7 亿美元的自由现金流 (FCF)，5 年平均自由现金流为 674.9 亿美元。AAPL 是一家毛利率为 41.66% 的公司，利润率为 26.24%，这与 TTM 中 868 亿美元的净利润相关。最重要的是，看看 AAPL 在过去十年中为其股东做了什么，他们回购了 95.9 亿股股票，即公司 36.58%，同时支付了 1,134 亿美元的股息。无论您是否错过了 AAPL 之前为股东创造的升值，如果您是新投资者或希望增加头寸的股东，我认为购买 AAPL 股票永远不会是糟糕的时机。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ffdf55aa2d9fa5c00e186f3d8d57c80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TD</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TD</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding why Apple's share buybacks are important to shareholders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解为什么苹果股票回购对股东很重要</b></blockquote></p><p> I have written about AAPL and read many of the other articles written about AAPL on Seeking Alpha for years. There are always&nbsp;comments&nbsp;about how Tim Cook (Apple CEO) and Luca Maestri (Apple CFO) are incompetent, financially mismanaging the company, and that the buybacks are useless. I have never seen a management team and board of directors care as much about their shareholders as the team at AAPL. Since the fiscal year of 2012, AAPL has returned $579.6 billion in capital through share buybacks and dividends to their shareholders while maintaining a net cash position that exceeds $50 billion. I am not aware of a single company that has given back anywhere close to this amount of capital to their shareholders while reinvesting in the company and continuing to innovate and drive revenue and profits.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，我一直在写关于AAPL的文章，也阅读了许多关于AAPL的关于Seeking Alpha的文章。总是有人评论说蒂姆·库克（苹果首席执行官）和卢卡·梅斯特里（苹果首席财务官）是无能的，对公司的财务管理不善，回购是没有用的。我从未见过一个管理团队和董事会像 AAPL 团队那样关心股东。自2012财年以来，AAPL通过股票回购和股息向股东返还了5796亿美元的资本，同时保持了超过500亿美元的净现金头寸。我不知道有哪家公司在对公司进行再投资并继续创新并推动收入和利润的同时，向股东返还了接近这一数额的资本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d43ab7c3b0fc84160f7f4db93e3e75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Why are share buybacks important? I am of the mindset that dilution can be detrimental to shareholder value. Unless there is a good reason for issuing additional shares, it's one of the biggest red flags, in my opinion, as current shareholder ownership becomes diluted. It's a simple equation if company ABC has 10,000 shares outstanding and you hold 100 shares, you own 1% of the company. If ABC issues 2,500 shares to raise capital, there are now 12,500 shares outstanding, and your ownership in the company automatically gets diluted to 0.80%. If ABC utilized its FCF to initiate a share buyback program and, instead of issuing 2,500 shares, repurchased 2,500 shares on the open market, ABC would be left with 7,500 shares outstanding. Your equity stake in ABC would increase as your 100 shares would now be equivalent to 1.33% of the company. This would also cause the revenue and earnings per share to increase as it would be spread across fewer shares. Hypothetically if ABC generated $1,000,000 in revenue and $100,000 in earnings, based on 10,000 shares, each share of ABC would generate $100 of revenue and $10 of earnings per share. By issuing more shares and bringing the shares outstanding to 12,500, each share would now produce $80 of revenue and $8 of earnings per share. By buying back 2,500 shares instead of issuing 2,500 shares, ABC would now generate $133.33 of revenue and $13.33 earnings per share as they would only have 7,500 shares outstanding.</p><p><blockquote>为什么股票回购很重要？我认为稀释可能会损害股东价值。除非有充分的理由发行额外股票，否则在我看来，随着当前股东所有权被稀释，这是最大的危险信号之一。这是一个简单的等式，如果ABC公司有10,000股流通股，而你持有100股，你就拥有该公司1%的股份。如果 ABC 发行 2,500 股股票来筹集资金，则现在有 12,500 股流通股，您在该公司的所有权将自动稀释至 0.80%。如果 ABC 利用其自由现金流启动股票回购计划，而不是发行 2,500 股，而是在公开市场上回购 2,500 股，ABC 将剩下 7,500 股流通股。您在 ABC 的股权将会增加，因为您的 100 股现在相当于该公司的 1.33%。这也将导致收入和每股收益增加，因为它将分散在更少的股票上。假设，如果 ABC 产生 1,000,000 美元的收入和 100,000 美元的收益，基于 10,000 股股票，ABC 的每股将产生 100 美元的收入和每股 10 美元的收益。通过发行更多股票并将流通股数量增加到 12,500 股，每股现在将产生 80 美元的收入和 8 美元的每股收益。通过回购 2,500 股而不是发行 2,500 股，ABC 现在将产生 133.33 美元的收入和每股收益 13.33 美元，因为他们只有 7,500 股流通股。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When AAPL buys back shares, it isn't financial manipulation; they reward their shareholders by increasing the percentage of AAPL those shares owned. AAPL generates a tremendous amount of FCF, and its philosophy is to reward shareholders by giving them back a portion of the cash generated through buybacks and dividends. Over the last decade, AAPL's FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $94.77 billion in the TTM on an annual basis. The fiscal year of 2021 has been well above AAPL's previous years, so if you were to use their 5-year average, FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $67.49 billion on an annual basis. AAPL's buybacks aren't manipulation and shouldn't be viewed as financial mismanagement. Over the past 7 quarters, AAPL has bought back $138 billion in shares at an average rate of $19.71 billion per quarter. Each quarter AAPL repurchases shares, increasing the equity position your shares represent and increasing the amount of revenue and earnings per share your shares generate. This should be celebrated as AAPL creates shareholder value instead of hoarding cash.</p><p><blockquote>当苹果公司回购股票时，这不是财务操纵；他们通过增加 AAPL 持有这些股份的比例来奖励股东。AAPL 产生了大量的自由现金流，其理念是通过回购和股息产生的部分现金返还股东来回报股东。在过去十年中，AAPL 的 TTM 自由现金流每年从 416.8 亿美元增加到 947.7 亿美元。2021 财年远高于 AAPL 前几年，因此如果使用 5 年平均水平，FCF 同比从 416.8 亿美元增加到 674.9 亿美元。AAPL的回购不是操纵，不应被视为财务管理不善。过去 7 个季度，AAPL 以平均每季度 197.1 亿美元的速度回购了 1380 亿美元的股票。每个季度 AAPL 都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的股本头寸，并增加您的股票产生的收入和每股收益。这应该受到庆祝，因为 AAPL 创造了股东价值，而不是囤积现金。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bce847a3d944ecfcecbde546cba70011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"128\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Everything Money</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Everything Money</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I recently&nbsp;wrote an article on Tesla (TSLA), and their management team has done the exact opposite of AAPL. Granted, TSLA is a growth company and has used the capital generated to grow its company but it's a perfect example of share dilution. At the end of 2011, TSLA had 522.7 million total common shares outstanding. As of the last report, TSLA had 984 million common shares outstanding. Over the past decade, TSLA has diluted shareholders by 88.15%. TSLA has issued 176.2 million new shares in the past five years and diluted its shareholders by 21.81% over that period. Issuing shares isn't always a negative, and to be fair toTSLA, they used the capital generated from issuing shares to grow their business. Since 2011 TSLA has increased its revenue from $204.2 million to $41.66 billion in the TTM (20,400%) and its revenue per share from $0.41 to $43.81, an increase of 10,585%. Even though TSLA has done a fantastic job of building out its company and generating tens of billions in annual revenue, its long-term shareholders have been diluted by 88.15% over the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于特斯拉（TSLA）的文章，他们的管理团队做了与AAPL完全相反的事情。诚然，特斯拉是一家成长型公司，并利用产生的资本来发展公司，但这是股票稀释的一个完美例子。截至 2011 年底，TSLA 共有 5.227 亿股已发行普通股。截至上一份报告，TSLA 拥有 9.84 亿股已发行普通股。过去十年，特斯拉已将股东稀释了 88.15%。特斯拉在过去五年中发行了 1.762 亿股新股，在此期间将其股东稀释了 21.81%。发行股票并不总是坏事，公平地说，他们利用发行股票产生的资本来发展业务。自2011年以来，TSLA在TTM的收入从2.042亿美元增加到416.6亿美元（20,400%），每股收入从0.41美元增加到43.81美元，增幅为10,585%。尽管特斯拉在公司建设方面做得非常出色，年收入达数百亿美元，但其长期股东在过去十年中已被稀释了 88.15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/332406c13d71427099656a8db4cad2a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On 4/28/21, AAPL announced that its board of directors&nbsp;authorized an increase of $90 billion to its existing share repurchase program. Based on the current $2.43 trillion valuation, AAPL's board added enough capital to buy back an additional 3.7% of shares on the open market. Based on the data from the past decade, AAPL will continue to be shareholder-friendly as their capital allocation efforts have increased alongside their FFC. I am shocked that anyone would consider this financial mismanagement. AAPL's share buyback program is another reason to own this great company. Each quarter AAPL buys back shares, increasing the percentage of equity in AAPL that your shares represent. The dedication AAPL has shown to increasing shareholder value through buybacks is something that shareholders can continue to look forward to as AAPL has continuously repurchased shares throughout every new all-time high share price.</p><p><blockquote>2021年4月28日，AAPL宣布其董事会授权向其现有的股票回购计划增加900亿美元。根据目前 2.43 万亿美元的估值，AAPL 董事会增加了足够的资本，在公开市场上额外回购了 3.7% 的股票。根据过去十年的数据，随着 FFC 的资本配置力度的增加，AAPL 将继续对股东友好。我很震惊有人会认为这种财务管理不善。苹果公司的股票回购计划是拥有这家伟大公司的另一个原因。每个季度 AAPL 都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的 AAPL 股权百分比。AAPL 致力于通过回购增加股东价值，这是股东可以继续期待的，因为 AAPL 在每一个新的历史最高股价中不断回购股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's valuation is ripe for new investments, especially after the recent pullback</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的估值已经成熟，可以进行新的投资，尤其是在最近的回调之后</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of AAPL traded for $134.78 on 6/28/21 and reached $156.68 on 9/7/21. Since then, AAPL experienced a pullback as shares receded to $143.04 on 9/20/21, which is a level we haven't seen since the middle of July. At the end of trading on 9/24321, shares of AAPL had bounced off their recent lows and settled at $146.92. After going through AAPL's metrics and reviewing the 1-year chart, I believe this pullback is an opportunity. Over the past year, AAPL's pullbacks have created higher lows. On October 30thAAPL's first pullback closed at $108.42, then in the next major pullback, AAPL went from $143.22 on 1/25/21 to $116.37 on 3/8/21. AAPL then climbed to $134.79 on 4/19/21 and receded to $122.77 on 5/12/21. Over the summer, AAPL reached $156.69 on 9/7/21 and recently fell to $142.94 on 9/20/21. Over the past year, each of AAPL's pullbacks has made higher lows, and over the year, AAPL has created higher highs. Going into the Q4 results where AAPL is on track to report its best year of operations, I believe this pullback is a good entry point to either start or add to a current position.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 股价于 2021 年 6 月 28 日交易价格为 134.78 美元，并于 2021 年 9 月 7 日达到 156.68 美元。自那以后，AAPL经历了回调，股价在21年9月20日回落至143.04美元，这是我们自7月中旬以来从未见过的水平。9/24321 交易结束时，AAPL 股价已从近期低点反弹，收于 146.92 美元。在查看了 AAPL 的指标并回顾了 1 年图表后，我相信这次回调是一个机会。在过去的一年里，AAPL 的回调创造了更高的低点。10月30日，AAPL的第一次回调收于108.42美元，然后在下一次重大回调中，AAPL从21年1月25日的143.22美元跌至21年3月8日的116.37美元。AAPL随后在2021年4月19日攀升至134.79美元，并在2021年5月12日回落至122.77美元。整个夏季，AAPL在21年9月7日达到156.69美元，最近在21年9月20日跌至142.94美元。在过去的一年里，AAPL 的每一次回调都创造了更高的低点，而在过去的一年里，AAPL 又创造了更高的高点。进入第四季度业绩，AAPL 有望报告其最好的一年运营，我相信这次回调是开始或增加当前头寸的良好切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f507ba198b1c177f12c6b0189de34cf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL,Amazon (AMZN),Alphabet (GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), and&nbsp;Microsoft (MSFT)&nbsp;are the four largest companies in the S&amp;P 500. When looking at some of the valuation metrics I like to utilize, AAPL looks cheap compared to its peers in Big Tech. Price to Sales is a valuation that compares the stock price to the revenue generated per share. It's an indication of the value placed on each dollar of revenue generated. A lower P/S ratio could indicate that the share price is undervalued. AAPL has a P/S ratio of 7.13 compared to MSFT's of 13.44 and GOOGL's of 8.71. GOOGL has the lowest P/S of the group with 3.89. Price to earnings is used to value a company's share price to the earnings it generates and indicates how much an investor is willing to pay per $1 of earnings. A lower P/E ratio could indicate that a company's share price is undervalued. Today the&nbsp;average P/E ratio&nbsp;of the S&amp;P 500 is 34.75. AAPL has a P/E ratio of 28.53 compared to MSFT's of 36.87, AMZN's of 58.54, and GOOGL's of 30.48. I look at the return on equity to measure each company's profitability in relation to the equity on the books. AAPL has a R/E ratio of 135.04% compared to MSFT's 43.15%, AMZN's 25.64%, and GOOGL's 26.49%. Not many people look at the price to free cash flow metric, but it's an equity valuation metric that indicates a company's ability to generate additional revenues. AAPL trades at a price to FCF multiple of 25.64x while MSFT trades at 40.09x, AMZN at 244.80x, and GOOGL at 32.46x.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司、亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）和微软（MSFT）是标普500最大的四家公司。当查看我喜欢使用的一些估值指标时，与大型科技公司的同行相比，AAPL 看起来很便宜。市销率是将股票价格与每股收入进行比较的估值。它表明了每一美元收入的价值。较低的市盈率可能表明股价被低估。AAPL 的市盈率为 7.13，而 MSFT 的市盈率为 13.44，GOOGL 的市盈率为 8.71。GOOGL是集团中市盈率最低的，为3.89。市盈率用于根据公司产生的收益来评估公司的股价，并表明投资者愿意为每 1 美元的收益支付多少钱。较低的市盈率可能表明公司的股价被低估。如今，标普500的平均市盈率为34.75。AAPL 的市盈率为 28.53，而 MSFT 的市盈率为 36.87，AMZN 的市盈率为 58.54，GOOGL 的市盈率为 30.48。我看股本回报率来衡量每家公司相对于账面股本的盈利能力。AAPL 的市盈率为 135.04%，而 MSFT 为 43.15%，AMZN 为 25.64%，GOOGL 为 26.49%。没有多少人关注自由现金流价格指标，但它是一个股权估值指标，表明公司产生额外收入的能力。AAPL 的市盈率为 25.64 倍，MSFT 的市盈率为 40.09 倍，AMZN 的市盈率为 244.80 倍，GOOGL的市盈率为 32.46 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e086a2bff76c75887a51f9abbcb210\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AAPL is one of those companies that I believe you should own and add to when you're able to. I am so proud of my wife because she told me she bought more AAPL the other day when the markets pulled back. One of my good friends on our investment group chat has been buying shares of AAPL each month, and I believe he took the opportunity to add to AAPL during the pullback as well. I think AAPL is still a great long-term investment, and compared to its peers, it looks cheap. AAPL trades at just 25.64x its FCF with a P/E of 28.53 compared to the market average of 34.75. AAPL does an incredible job of generating profit from its equity, has an enticing valuation, and buys back shares every quarter; what's not to like?</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 是我认为您应该拥有并在可能的情况下添加的公司之一。我为我的妻子感到骄傲，因为她告诉我，前几天市场回落时，她买了更多的苹果。我在投资群聊中的一位好朋友每个月都在购买 AAPL 股票，我相信他在回调期间也借此机会增持了 AAPL。我认为 AAPL 仍然是一项很好的长期投资，而且与同行相比，它看起来很便宜。AAPL 的交易价格仅为 FCF 的 25.64 倍，市盈率为 28.53，而市场平均水平为 34.75。AAPL 在从其股权中产生利润方面做得非常出色，估值诱人，并且每个季度都会回购股票；有什么不喜欢的？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What are we looking at going into AAPL's Q4 2021 being reported at the end of October?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们对 10 月底公布的 AAPL 2021 年第四季度有何看法？</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL doesn't follow a calendar year, and their fiscal year ends on 9/30 each year. When AAPL reports earnings at the end of October, they will be reporting their Q4 and 2021 fiscal year numbers. AAPL has set the stage for the best year in its operating history. AAPL finished 2020 with $274.52 billion in revenue, $104.96 billion of gross profit, and $57.4 billion in net income. In the first 9 months of their 2021 fiscal year, AAPL has produced $282.56 billion of revenue, $117.66 billion in gross profit, and $74.13 billion of net income. In the first 9 months of 2021, AAPL has exceeded its 2020 fiscal year in these three categories. AAPL has forecasted for double-digit YoY growth in&nbsp;Q4 2021, which would place their Q4 revenue at a minimum of $71.16 billion. AAPL has a current gross profit margin of 31.66% and a net income conversion ratio of 26.24%. If AAPL can convert 40% of their revenue to gross profit and 25% to net income, they would finish 2021 with $353.72 billion in revenue, $146.12 billion gross profit, and $91.92 billion in net income.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL不遵循日历年，他们的财政年度在每年的9月30日结束。当 AAPL 在 10 月底公布收益时，他们将公布第四季度和 2021 财年的数据。AAPL 为其运营历史上最好的一年奠定了基础。AAPL 2020年收入为2745.2亿美元，毛利润为1049.6亿美元，净利润为574亿美元。在2021财年的前9个月，AAPL创造了2825.6亿美元的收入，1176.6亿美元的毛利润和741.3亿美元的净利润。2021年前9个月，AAPL在这三个类别中的表现都超过了2020财年。AAPL 预测 2021 年第四季度将实现两位数的同比增长，这将使其第四季度收入至少达到 711.6 亿美元。AAPL目前的毛利率为31.66%，净利润转化率为26.24%。如果 AAPL 能够将 40% 的收入转化为毛利润，25% 转化为净利润，那么到 2021 年，他们将实现 3537.2 亿美元的收入、1461.2 亿美元的毛利润和 919.2 亿美元的净利润。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I look at every investment as paying a present value for future cash flow. Some people say AAPL is overvalued, and their 2021 fiscal year is an anomaly. I don't have a crystal ball, and we're going to need to see what Tim Cook says on the Q4 earnings call and the projections for the fiscal year 2022. Looking at the chart I constructed below, AAPL had a period in 2016 and 2017 where their revenue fell below 2015's before their growth accelerated. Hypothetically if AAPL's revenue happens to peak for a year or two, it doesn't change my investment thesis as I have a long-term investment horizon for AAPL. From the fiscal year 2012–2017, AAPL repurchased $166 billion of shares which was an average of $27.67 billion annually. When revenue dipped, AAPL still created shareholder value by utilizing its cash to buy back shares. Heading into the close of 2021, AAPL will report a blowout year, and we will get some projections for 2022. AAPL's board has increased the share buyback program by $90 billion, and there is no indication AAPL is slowing down. This pullback is an opportunity to buy, and any future pullbacks are opportunities to buy shares of AAPL, in my opinion. AAPL generates the most FCF of any company I have seen, and they don't just use it to grow their business; they consistently reward shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Based on the information I have today, AAPL is a buy.</p><p><blockquote>我把每一项投资都看作是为未来现金流支付现值。有人说AAPL被高估了，他们的2021财年是一个异常现象。我没有水晶球，我们需要看看蒂姆·库克对第四季度收益看涨期权和 2022 财年预测有何看法。从我下面构建的图表来看，AAPL 在 2016 年和 2017 年的一段时间里，其收入低于 2015 年，然后才加速增长。假设，如果 AAPL 的收入碰巧在一两年内达到顶峰，这不会改变我的投资论点，因为我对 AAPL 有长期投资期限。从2012-2017财年，AAPL回购了1660亿美元的股票，平均每年276.7亿美元。当收入下降时，苹果公司仍然通过利用现金回购股票来创造股东价值。进入 2021 年底，AAPL 将报告一个井喷的一年，我们将对 2022 年做出一些预测。AAPL 董事会已将股票回购计划增加了 900 亿美元，而且没有迹象表明 AAPL 正在放缓。在我看来，这次回调是买入的机会，未来的任何回调都是买入 AAPL 股票的机会。AAPL 是我见过的所有公司中产生最多自由现金流的公司，他们不仅仅用它来发展业务；他们不断通过回购和股息来回报股东。根据我今天掌握的信息，AAPL 值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea241e7559cca6afd2d0ee8b29c759b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL is one of America's most beloved companies with a cult-like following for their products. I believe the recent pullback is an opportunity for investors as AAPL's Q4 earnings and a record 2021 will be reported at the end of October. Based on the current numbers, AAPL could see a revenue increase of 28.85% and a net income increase of 60.14% YoY compared to its 2020 fiscal year. AAPL, compared to its peers, looks inexpensive as its P/E and price to FCF are significantly lower than MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL. AAPL continues to create value for its shareholders by allocating a percentage of its FCF to buybacks and dividends. AAPL continues to innovate, has released new products, continues to build out its Services business segment, and recently added $90 billion to its share buyback program. I believe AAPL is an excellent long-term investment, and the current pullback is a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL是美国最受欢迎的公司之一，其产品拥有狂热的追随者。我相信最近的回调对投资者来说是一个机会，因为 AAPL 第四季度收益和创纪录的 2021 年业绩将于 10 月底公布。根据目前的数据，与2020财年相比，AAPL的收入将同比增长28.85%，净利润将同比增长60.14%。与同行相比，AAPL 看起来很便宜，因为其市盈率和 FCF 价格明显低于 MSFT、AMZN 和GOOGL。AAPL 继续通过将其自由现金流的一定比例分配给回购和股息来为股东创造价值。AAPL 不断创新，发布新产品，继续拓展服务业务部门，最近还向其股票回购计划追加了 900 亿美元。我认为 AAPL 是一项出色的长期投资，目前的回调是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: It's Never Too Late To Invest In AAPL, Especially As They Buy Back Shares<blockquote>苹果：投资 AAPL 永远不会太晚，尤其是当他们回购股票时</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: It's Never Too Late To Invest In AAPL, Especially As They Buy Back Shares<blockquote>苹果：投资 AAPL 永远不会太晚，尤其是当他们回购股票时</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-28 22:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Going into Q4 earnings, Apple is on track to deliver a blowout year, breaking previous milestones from total revenue to net income.</li>  <li>Apple continues to deliver tremendous shareholder value by increasing the amount of capital they plan on allocating to their buyback program.</li>  <li>Compared to their peers, AAPL looks cheap and this recent pullback is an opportunity if you have a long-term time horizon.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ee1636e4c2fc8616107ba5930de843\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Stephen Lam/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>进入第四季度收益，苹果有望实现井喷式的一年，打破之前从总收入到净利润的里程碑。</li><li>苹果通过增加计划分配给回购计划的资本金额，继续为股东创造巨大价值。</li><li>与同行相比，AAPL 看起来很便宜，如果你有长期的时间范围，最近的回调是一个机会。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯蒂芬·林/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)if you have a long-term investment horizon. If you were to go back in time, no matter which milestone was being discussed, from reaching a $500 billion, $1 trillion, or a $2 trillion market cap, AAPL pushed right through the barrier over time. In the future, we will be discussing AAPL reaching a $5 trillion market cap. Don't look at AAPL in the past tense as a company that has undergone several stock splits and grown into a $2.43 trillion company. Look at AAPL as one of the most beloved companies in America that has generated $94.77 billion in Free Cash Flow (FCF) in the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM), with a 5-year average of $67.49 billion FCF. Look at AAPL as a company that produces a 41.66% gross profit margin and a 26.24% profit margin which has correlated to $86.8 billion of net income in the TTM. Most importantly, look at what AAPL has done for its shareholders over the last decade as they have repurchased 9.59 billion shares or 36.58% of the company while paying out $113.4 billion in dividends. Regardless if you missed the previous appreciation AAPL has created for shareholders, if you're a new investor or are a shareholder looking to add to your position, I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of AAPL.</p><p><blockquote>如果您有长期投资视野，我认为购买苹果（纳斯达克股票代码：AAPL）股票永远不会是一个糟糕的时机。如果你回到过去，无论讨论的是哪个里程碑，从达到 5000 亿美元、1 万亿美元或 2 万亿美元的市值，随着时间的推移，苹果公司已经突破了这一障碍。未来，我们将讨论 AAPL 市值达到 5 万亿美元。不要用过去时态来看待 AAPL，它是一家经历了多次股票分割并成长为一家价值 2.43 万亿美元的公司的公司。AAPL 是美国最受喜爱的公司之一，在过去 12 个月 (TTM) 中产生了 947.7 亿美元的自由现金流 (FCF)，5 年平均自由现金流为 674.9 亿美元。AAPL 是一家毛利率为 41.66% 的公司，利润率为 26.24%，这与 TTM 中 868 亿美元的净利润相关。最重要的是，看看 AAPL 在过去十年中为其股东做了什么，他们回购了 95.9 亿股股票，即公司 36.58%，同时支付了 1,134 亿美元的股息。无论您是否错过了 AAPL 之前为股东创造的升值，如果您是新投资者或希望增加头寸的股东，我认为购买 AAPL 股票永远不会是糟糕的时机。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ffdf55aa2d9fa5c00e186f3d8d57c80\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"167\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TD</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TD</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding why Apple's share buybacks are important to shareholders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解为什么苹果股票回购对股东很重要</b></blockquote></p><p> I have written about AAPL and read many of the other articles written about AAPL on Seeking Alpha for years. There are always&nbsp;comments&nbsp;about how Tim Cook (Apple CEO) and Luca Maestri (Apple CFO) are incompetent, financially mismanaging the company, and that the buybacks are useless. I have never seen a management team and board of directors care as much about their shareholders as the team at AAPL. Since the fiscal year of 2012, AAPL has returned $579.6 billion in capital through share buybacks and dividends to their shareholders while maintaining a net cash position that exceeds $50 billion. I am not aware of a single company that has given back anywhere close to this amount of capital to their shareholders while reinvesting in the company and continuing to innovate and drive revenue and profits.</p><p><blockquote>多年来，我一直在写关于AAPL的文章，也阅读了许多关于AAPL的关于Seeking Alpha的文章。总是有人评论说蒂姆·库克（苹果首席执行官）和卢卡·梅斯特里（苹果首席财务官）是无能的，对公司的财务管理不善，回购是没有用的。我从未见过一个管理团队和董事会像 AAPL 团队那样关心股东。自2012财年以来，AAPL通过股票回购和股息向股东返还了5796亿美元的资本，同时保持了超过500亿美元的净现金头寸。我不知道有哪家公司在对公司进行再投资并继续创新并推动收入和利润的同时，向股东返还了接近这一数额的资本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1d43ab7c3b0fc84160f7f4db93e3e75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Apple</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：苹果</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Why are share buybacks important? I am of the mindset that dilution can be detrimental to shareholder value. Unless there is a good reason for issuing additional shares, it's one of the biggest red flags, in my opinion, as current shareholder ownership becomes diluted. It's a simple equation if company ABC has 10,000 shares outstanding and you hold 100 shares, you own 1% of the company. If ABC issues 2,500 shares to raise capital, there are now 12,500 shares outstanding, and your ownership in the company automatically gets diluted to 0.80%. If ABC utilized its FCF to initiate a share buyback program and, instead of issuing 2,500 shares, repurchased 2,500 shares on the open market, ABC would be left with 7,500 shares outstanding. Your equity stake in ABC would increase as your 100 shares would now be equivalent to 1.33% of the company. This would also cause the revenue and earnings per share to increase as it would be spread across fewer shares. Hypothetically if ABC generated $1,000,000 in revenue and $100,000 in earnings, based on 10,000 shares, each share of ABC would generate $100 of revenue and $10 of earnings per share. By issuing more shares and bringing the shares outstanding to 12,500, each share would now produce $80 of revenue and $8 of earnings per share. By buying back 2,500 shares instead of issuing 2,500 shares, ABC would now generate $133.33 of revenue and $13.33 earnings per share as they would only have 7,500 shares outstanding.</p><p><blockquote>为什么股票回购很重要？我认为稀释可能会损害股东价值。除非有充分的理由发行额外股票，否则在我看来，随着当前股东所有权被稀释，这是最大的危险信号之一。这是一个简单的等式，如果ABC公司有10,000股流通股，而你持有100股，你就拥有该公司1%的股份。如果 ABC 发行 2,500 股股票来筹集资金，则现在有 12,500 股流通股，您在该公司的所有权将自动稀释至 0.80%。如果 ABC 利用其自由现金流启动股票回购计划，而不是发行 2,500 股，而是在公开市场上回购 2,500 股，ABC 将剩下 7,500 股流通股。您在 ABC 的股权将会增加，因为您的 100 股现在相当于该公司的 1.33%。这也将导致收入和每股收益增加，因为它将分散在更少的股票上。假设，如果 ABC 产生 1,000,000 美元的收入和 100,000 美元的收益，基于 10,000 股股票，ABC 的每股将产生 100 美元的收入和每股 10 美元的收益。通过发行更多股票并将流通股数量增加到 12,500 股，每股现在将产生 80 美元的收入和 8 美元的每股收益。通过回购 2,500 股而不是发行 2,500 股，ABC 现在将产生 133.33 美元的收入和每股收益 13.33 美元，因为他们只有 7,500 股流通股。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> When AAPL buys back shares, it isn't financial manipulation; they reward their shareholders by increasing the percentage of AAPL those shares owned. AAPL generates a tremendous amount of FCF, and its philosophy is to reward shareholders by giving them back a portion of the cash generated through buybacks and dividends. Over the last decade, AAPL's FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $94.77 billion in the TTM on an annual basis. The fiscal year of 2021 has been well above AAPL's previous years, so if you were to use their 5-year average, FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $67.49 billion on an annual basis. AAPL's buybacks aren't manipulation and shouldn't be viewed as financial mismanagement. Over the past 7 quarters, AAPL has bought back $138 billion in shares at an average rate of $19.71 billion per quarter. Each quarter AAPL repurchases shares, increasing the equity position your shares represent and increasing the amount of revenue and earnings per share your shares generate. This should be celebrated as AAPL creates shareholder value instead of hoarding cash.</p><p><blockquote>当苹果公司回购股票时，这不是财务操纵；他们通过增加 AAPL 持有这些股份的比例来奖励股东。AAPL 产生了大量的自由现金流，其理念是通过回购和股息产生的部分现金返还股东来回报股东。在过去十年中，AAPL 的 TTM 自由现金流每年从 416.8 亿美元增加到 947.7 亿美元。2021 财年远高于 AAPL 前几年，因此如果使用 5 年平均水平，FCF 同比从 416.8 亿美元增加到 674.9 亿美元。AAPL的回购不是操纵，不应被视为财务管理不善。过去 7 个季度，AAPL 以平均每季度 197.1 亿美元的速度回购了 1380 亿美元的股票。每个季度 AAPL 都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的股本头寸，并增加您的股票产生的收入和每股收益。这应该受到庆祝，因为 AAPL 创造了股东价值，而不是囤积现金。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bce847a3d944ecfcecbde546cba70011\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"128\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Everything Money</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Everything Money</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I recently&nbsp;wrote an article on Tesla (TSLA), and their management team has done the exact opposite of AAPL. Granted, TSLA is a growth company and has used the capital generated to grow its company but it's a perfect example of share dilution. At the end of 2011, TSLA had 522.7 million total common shares outstanding. As of the last report, TSLA had 984 million common shares outstanding. Over the past decade, TSLA has diluted shareholders by 88.15%. TSLA has issued 176.2 million new shares in the past five years and diluted its shareholders by 21.81% over that period. Issuing shares isn't always a negative, and to be fair toTSLA, they used the capital generated from issuing shares to grow their business. Since 2011 TSLA has increased its revenue from $204.2 million to $41.66 billion in the TTM (20,400%) and its revenue per share from $0.41 to $43.81, an increase of 10,585%. Even though TSLA has done a fantastic job of building out its company and generating tens of billions in annual revenue, its long-term shareholders have been diluted by 88.15% over the last decade.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇关于特斯拉（TSLA）的文章，他们的管理团队做了与AAPL完全相反的事情。诚然，特斯拉是一家成长型公司，并利用产生的资本来发展公司，但这是股票稀释的一个完美例子。截至 2011 年底，TSLA 共有 5.227 亿股已发行普通股。截至上一份报告，TSLA 拥有 9.84 亿股已发行普通股。过去十年，特斯拉已将股东稀释了 88.15%。特斯拉在过去五年中发行了 1.762 亿股新股，在此期间将其股东稀释了 21.81%。发行股票并不总是坏事，公平地说，他们利用发行股票产生的资本来发展业务。自2011年以来，TSLA在TTM的收入从2.042亿美元增加到416.6亿美元（20,400%），每股收入从0.41美元增加到43.81美元，增幅为10,585%。尽管特斯拉在公司建设方面做得非常出色，年收入达数百亿美元，但其长期股东在过去十年中已被稀释了 88.15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/332406c13d71427099656a8db4cad2a6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"288\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On 4/28/21, AAPL announced that its board of directors&nbsp;authorized an increase of $90 billion to its existing share repurchase program. Based on the current $2.43 trillion valuation, AAPL's board added enough capital to buy back an additional 3.7% of shares on the open market. Based on the data from the past decade, AAPL will continue to be shareholder-friendly as their capital allocation efforts have increased alongside their FFC. I am shocked that anyone would consider this financial mismanagement. AAPL's share buyback program is another reason to own this great company. Each quarter AAPL buys back shares, increasing the percentage of equity in AAPL that your shares represent. The dedication AAPL has shown to increasing shareholder value through buybacks is something that shareholders can continue to look forward to as AAPL has continuously repurchased shares throughout every new all-time high share price.</p><p><blockquote>2021年4月28日，AAPL宣布其董事会授权向其现有的股票回购计划增加900亿美元。根据目前 2.43 万亿美元的估值，AAPL 董事会增加了足够的资本，在公开市场上额外回购了 3.7% 的股票。根据过去十年的数据，随着 FFC 的资本配置力度的增加，AAPL 将继续对股东友好。我很震惊有人会认为这种财务管理不善。苹果公司的股票回购计划是拥有这家伟大公司的另一个原因。每个季度 AAPL 都会回购股票，增加您的股票所代表的 AAPL 股权百分比。AAPL 致力于通过回购增加股东价值，这是股东可以继续期待的，因为 AAPL 在每一个新的历史最高股价中不断回购股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple's valuation is ripe for new investments, especially after the recent pullback</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果的估值已经成熟，可以进行新的投资，尤其是在最近的回调之后</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of AAPL traded for $134.78 on 6/28/21 and reached $156.68 on 9/7/21. Since then, AAPL experienced a pullback as shares receded to $143.04 on 9/20/21, which is a level we haven't seen since the middle of July. At the end of trading on 9/24321, shares of AAPL had bounced off their recent lows and settled at $146.92. After going through AAPL's metrics and reviewing the 1-year chart, I believe this pullback is an opportunity. Over the past year, AAPL's pullbacks have created higher lows. On October 30thAAPL's first pullback closed at $108.42, then in the next major pullback, AAPL went from $143.22 on 1/25/21 to $116.37 on 3/8/21. AAPL then climbed to $134.79 on 4/19/21 and receded to $122.77 on 5/12/21. Over the summer, AAPL reached $156.69 on 9/7/21 and recently fell to $142.94 on 9/20/21. Over the past year, each of AAPL's pullbacks has made higher lows, and over the year, AAPL has created higher highs. Going into the Q4 results where AAPL is on track to report its best year of operations, I believe this pullback is a good entry point to either start or add to a current position.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 股价于 2021 年 6 月 28 日交易价格为 134.78 美元，并于 2021 年 9 月 7 日达到 156.68 美元。自那以后，AAPL经历了回调，股价在21年9月20日回落至143.04美元，这是我们自7月中旬以来从未见过的水平。9/24321 交易结束时，AAPL 股价已从近期低点反弹，收于 146.92 美元。在查看了 AAPL 的指标并回顾了 1 年图表后，我相信这次回调是一个机会。在过去的一年里，AAPL 的回调创造了更高的低点。10月30日，AAPL的第一次回调收于108.42美元，然后在下一次重大回调中，AAPL从21年1月25日的143.22美元跌至21年3月8日的116.37美元。AAPL随后在2021年4月19日攀升至134.79美元，并在2021年5月12日回落至122.77美元。整个夏季，AAPL在21年9月7日达到156.69美元，最近在21年9月20日跌至142.94美元。在过去的一年里，AAPL 的每一次回调都创造了更高的低点，而在过去的一年里，AAPL 又创造了更高的高点。进入第四季度业绩，AAPL 有望报告其最好的一年运营，我相信这次回调是开始或增加当前头寸的良好切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f507ba198b1c177f12c6b0189de34cf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"437\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> AAPL,Amazon (AMZN),Alphabet (GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), and&nbsp;Microsoft (MSFT)&nbsp;are the four largest companies in the S&amp;P 500. When looking at some of the valuation metrics I like to utilize, AAPL looks cheap compared to its peers in Big Tech. Price to Sales is a valuation that compares the stock price to the revenue generated per share. It's an indication of the value placed on each dollar of revenue generated. A lower P/S ratio could indicate that the share price is undervalued. AAPL has a P/S ratio of 7.13 compared to MSFT's of 13.44 and GOOGL's of 8.71. GOOGL has the lowest P/S of the group with 3.89. Price to earnings is used to value a company's share price to the earnings it generates and indicates how much an investor is willing to pay per $1 of earnings. A lower P/E ratio could indicate that a company's share price is undervalued. Today the&nbsp;average P/E ratio&nbsp;of the S&amp;P 500 is 34.75. AAPL has a P/E ratio of 28.53 compared to MSFT's of 36.87, AMZN's of 58.54, and GOOGL's of 30.48. I look at the return on equity to measure each company's profitability in relation to the equity on the books. AAPL has a R/E ratio of 135.04% compared to MSFT's 43.15%, AMZN's 25.64%, and GOOGL's 26.49%. Not many people look at the price to free cash flow metric, but it's an equity valuation metric that indicates a company's ability to generate additional revenues. AAPL trades at a price to FCF multiple of 25.64x while MSFT trades at 40.09x, AMZN at 244.80x, and GOOGL at 32.46x.</p><p><blockquote>苹果公司、亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOGL）（纳斯达克股票代码：GOOG）和微软（MSFT）是标普500最大的四家公司。当查看我喜欢使用的一些估值指标时，与大型科技公司的同行相比，AAPL 看起来很便宜。市销率是将股票价格与每股收入进行比较的估值。它表明了每一美元收入的价值。较低的市盈率可能表明股价被低估。AAPL 的市盈率为 7.13，而 MSFT 的市盈率为 13.44，GOOGL 的市盈率为 8.71。GOOGL是集团中市盈率最低的，为3.89。市盈率用于根据公司产生的收益来评估公司的股价，并表明投资者愿意为每 1 美元的收益支付多少钱。较低的市盈率可能表明公司的股价被低估。如今，标普500的平均市盈率为34.75。AAPL 的市盈率为 28.53，而 MSFT 的市盈率为 36.87，AMZN 的市盈率为 58.54，GOOGL 的市盈率为 30.48。我看股本回报率来衡量每家公司相对于账面股本的盈利能力。AAPL 的市盈率为 135.04%，而 MSFT 为 43.15%，AMZN 为 25.64%，GOOGL 为 26.49%。没有多少人关注自由现金流价格指标，但它是一个股权估值指标，表明公司产生额外收入的能力。AAPL 的市盈率为 25.64 倍，MSFT 的市盈率为 40.09 倍，AMZN 的市盈率为 244.80 倍，GOOGL的市盈率为 32.46 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64e086a2bff76c75887a51f9abbcb210\" tg-width=\"593\" tg-height=\"497\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AAPL is one of those companies that I believe you should own and add to when you're able to. I am so proud of my wife because she told me she bought more AAPL the other day when the markets pulled back. One of my good friends on our investment group chat has been buying shares of AAPL each month, and I believe he took the opportunity to add to AAPL during the pullback as well. I think AAPL is still a great long-term investment, and compared to its peers, it looks cheap. AAPL trades at just 25.64x its FCF with a P/E of 28.53 compared to the market average of 34.75. AAPL does an incredible job of generating profit from its equity, has an enticing valuation, and buys back shares every quarter; what's not to like?</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 是我认为您应该拥有并在可能的情况下添加的公司之一。我为我的妻子感到骄傲，因为她告诉我，前几天市场回落时，她买了更多的苹果。我在投资群聊中的一位好朋友每个月都在购买 AAPL 股票，我相信他在回调期间也借此机会增持了 AAPL。我认为 AAPL 仍然是一项很好的长期投资，而且与同行相比，它看起来很便宜。AAPL 的交易价格仅为 FCF 的 25.64 倍，市盈率为 28.53，而市场平均水平为 34.75。AAPL 在从其股权中产生利润方面做得非常出色，估值诱人，并且每个季度都会回购股票；有什么不喜欢的？</blockquote></p><p> <b>What are we looking at going into AAPL's Q4 2021 being reported at the end of October?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我们对 10 月底公布的 AAPL 2021 年第四季度有何看法？</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL doesn't follow a calendar year, and their fiscal year ends on 9/30 each year. When AAPL reports earnings at the end of October, they will be reporting their Q4 and 2021 fiscal year numbers. AAPL has set the stage for the best year in its operating history. AAPL finished 2020 with $274.52 billion in revenue, $104.96 billion of gross profit, and $57.4 billion in net income. In the first 9 months of their 2021 fiscal year, AAPL has produced $282.56 billion of revenue, $117.66 billion in gross profit, and $74.13 billion of net income. In the first 9 months of 2021, AAPL has exceeded its 2020 fiscal year in these three categories. AAPL has forecasted for double-digit YoY growth in&nbsp;Q4 2021, which would place their Q4 revenue at a minimum of $71.16 billion. AAPL has a current gross profit margin of 31.66% and a net income conversion ratio of 26.24%. If AAPL can convert 40% of their revenue to gross profit and 25% to net income, they would finish 2021 with $353.72 billion in revenue, $146.12 billion gross profit, and $91.92 billion in net income.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL不遵循日历年，他们的财政年度在每年的9月30日结束。当 AAPL 在 10 月底公布收益时，他们将公布第四季度和 2021 财年的数据。AAPL 为其运营历史上最好的一年奠定了基础。AAPL 2020年收入为2745.2亿美元，毛利润为1049.6亿美元，净利润为574亿美元。在2021财年的前9个月，AAPL创造了2825.6亿美元的收入，1176.6亿美元的毛利润和741.3亿美元的净利润。2021年前9个月，AAPL在这三个类别中的表现都超过了2020财年。AAPL 预测 2021 年第四季度将实现两位数的同比增长，这将使其第四季度收入至少达到 711.6 亿美元。AAPL目前的毛利率为31.66%，净利润转化率为26.24%。如果 AAPL 能够将 40% 的收入转化为毛利润，25% 转化为净利润，那么到 2021 年，他们将实现 3537.2 亿美元的收入、1461.2 亿美元的毛利润和 919.2 亿美元的净利润。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> I look at every investment as paying a present value for future cash flow. Some people say AAPL is overvalued, and their 2021 fiscal year is an anomaly. I don't have a crystal ball, and we're going to need to see what Tim Cook says on the Q4 earnings call and the projections for the fiscal year 2022. Looking at the chart I constructed below, AAPL had a period in 2016 and 2017 where their revenue fell below 2015's before their growth accelerated. Hypothetically if AAPL's revenue happens to peak for a year or two, it doesn't change my investment thesis as I have a long-term investment horizon for AAPL. From the fiscal year 2012–2017, AAPL repurchased $166 billion of shares which was an average of $27.67 billion annually. When revenue dipped, AAPL still created shareholder value by utilizing its cash to buy back shares. Heading into the close of 2021, AAPL will report a blowout year, and we will get some projections for 2022. AAPL's board has increased the share buyback program by $90 billion, and there is no indication AAPL is slowing down. This pullback is an opportunity to buy, and any future pullbacks are opportunities to buy shares of AAPL, in my opinion. AAPL generates the most FCF of any company I have seen, and they don't just use it to grow their business; they consistently reward shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Based on the information I have today, AAPL is a buy.</p><p><blockquote>我把每一项投资都看作是为未来现金流支付现值。有人说AAPL被高估了，他们的2021财年是一个异常现象。我没有水晶球，我们需要看看蒂姆·库克对第四季度收益看涨期权和 2022 财年预测有何看法。从我下面构建的图表来看，AAPL 在 2016 年和 2017 年的一段时间里，其收入低于 2015 年，然后才加速增长。假设，如果 AAPL 的收入碰巧在一两年内达到顶峰，这不会改变我的投资论点，因为我对 AAPL 有长期投资期限。从2012-2017财年，AAPL回购了1660亿美元的股票，平均每年276.7亿美元。当收入下降时，苹果公司仍然通过利用现金回购股票来创造股东价值。进入 2021 年底，AAPL 将报告一个井喷的一年，我们将对 2022 年做出一些预测。AAPL 董事会已将股票回购计划增加了 900 亿美元，而且没有迹象表明 AAPL 正在放缓。在我看来，这次回调是买入的机会，未来的任何回调都是买入 AAPL 股票的机会。AAPL 是我见过的所有公司中产生最多自由现金流的公司，他们不仅仅用它来发展业务；他们不断通过回购和股息来回报股东。根据我今天掌握的信息，AAPL 值得买入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea241e7559cca6afd2d0ee8b29c759b6\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"374\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Steven Fiorillo）（数据来源：Seeking Alpha）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> AAPL is one of America's most beloved companies with a cult-like following for their products. I believe the recent pullback is an opportunity for investors as AAPL's Q4 earnings and a record 2021 will be reported at the end of October. Based on the current numbers, AAPL could see a revenue increase of 28.85% and a net income increase of 60.14% YoY compared to its 2020 fiscal year. AAPL, compared to its peers, looks inexpensive as its P/E and price to FCF are significantly lower than MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL. AAPL continues to create value for its shareholders by allocating a percentage of its FCF to buybacks and dividends. AAPL continues to innovate, has released new products, continues to build out its Services business segment, and recently added $90 billion to its share buyback program. I believe AAPL is an excellent long-term investment, and the current pullback is a buying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>AAPL是美国最受欢迎的公司之一，其产品拥有狂热的追随者。我相信最近的回调对投资者来说是一个机会，因为 AAPL 第四季度收益和创纪录的 2021 年业绩将于 10 月底公布。根据目前的数据，与2020财年相比，AAPL的收入将同比增长28.85%，净利润将同比增长60.14%。与同行相比，AAPL 看起来很便宜，因为其市盈率和 FCF 价格明显低于 MSFT、AMZN 和GOOGL。AAPL 继续通过将其自由现金流的一定比例分配给回购和股息来为股东创造价值。AAPL 不断创新，发布新产品，继续拓展服务业务部门，最近还向其股票回购计划追加了 900 亿美元。我认为 AAPL 是一项出色的长期投资，目前的回调是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457225-apple-stock-never-too-late-invest-especially-they-buy-back-shares\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457225-apple-stock-never-too-late-invest-especially-they-buy-back-shares","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152246777","content_text":"Summary\n\nGoing into Q4 earnings, Apple is on track to deliver a blowout year, breaking previous milestones from total revenue to net income.\nApple continues to deliver tremendous shareholder value by increasing the amount of capital they plan on allocating to their buyback program.\nCompared to their peers, AAPL looks cheap and this recent pullback is an opportunity if you have a long-term time horizon.\n\nStephen Lam/Getty Images News\nI don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of Apple(NASDAQ:AAPL)if you have a long-term investment horizon. If you were to go back in time, no matter which milestone was being discussed, from reaching a $500 billion, $1 trillion, or a $2 trillion market cap, AAPL pushed right through the barrier over time. In the future, we will be discussing AAPL reaching a $5 trillion market cap. Don't look at AAPL in the past tense as a company that has undergone several stock splits and grown into a $2.43 trillion company. Look at AAPL as one of the most beloved companies in America that has generated $94.77 billion in Free Cash Flow (FCF) in the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM), with a 5-year average of $67.49 billion FCF. Look at AAPL as a company that produces a 41.66% gross profit margin and a 26.24% profit margin which has correlated to $86.8 billion of net income in the TTM. Most importantly, look at what AAPL has done for its shareholders over the last decade as they have repurchased 9.59 billion shares or 36.58% of the company while paying out $113.4 billion in dividends. Regardless if you missed the previous appreciation AAPL has created for shareholders, if you're a new investor or are a shareholder looking to add to your position, I don't believe there is ever a bad time to buy shares of AAPL.\nSource: TD\nUnderstanding why Apple's share buybacks are important to shareholders\nI have written about AAPL and read many of the other articles written about AAPL on Seeking Alpha for years. There are always comments about how Tim Cook (Apple CEO) and Luca Maestri (Apple CFO) are incompetent, financially mismanaging the company, and that the buybacks are useless. I have never seen a management team and board of directors care as much about their shareholders as the team at AAPL. Since the fiscal year of 2012, AAPL has returned $579.6 billion in capital through share buybacks and dividends to their shareholders while maintaining a net cash position that exceeds $50 billion. I am not aware of a single company that has given back anywhere close to this amount of capital to their shareholders while reinvesting in the company and continuing to innovate and drive revenue and profits.\nSource: Apple\nWhy are share buybacks important? I am of the mindset that dilution can be detrimental to shareholder value. Unless there is a good reason for issuing additional shares, it's one of the biggest red flags, in my opinion, as current shareholder ownership becomes diluted. It's a simple equation if company ABC has 10,000 shares outstanding and you hold 100 shares, you own 1% of the company. If ABC issues 2,500 shares to raise capital, there are now 12,500 shares outstanding, and your ownership in the company automatically gets diluted to 0.80%. If ABC utilized its FCF to initiate a share buyback program and, instead of issuing 2,500 shares, repurchased 2,500 shares on the open market, ABC would be left with 7,500 shares outstanding. Your equity stake in ABC would increase as your 100 shares would now be equivalent to 1.33% of the company. This would also cause the revenue and earnings per share to increase as it would be spread across fewer shares. Hypothetically if ABC generated $1,000,000 in revenue and $100,000 in earnings, based on 10,000 shares, each share of ABC would generate $100 of revenue and $10 of earnings per share. By issuing more shares and bringing the shares outstanding to 12,500, each share would now produce $80 of revenue and $8 of earnings per share. By buying back 2,500 shares instead of issuing 2,500 shares, ABC would now generate $133.33 of revenue and $13.33 earnings per share as they would only have 7,500 shares outstanding.\nWhen AAPL buys back shares, it isn't financial manipulation; they reward their shareholders by increasing the percentage of AAPL those shares owned. AAPL generates a tremendous amount of FCF, and its philosophy is to reward shareholders by giving them back a portion of the cash generated through buybacks and dividends. Over the last decade, AAPL's FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $94.77 billion in the TTM on an annual basis. The fiscal year of 2021 has been well above AAPL's previous years, so if you were to use their 5-year average, FCF has increased from $41.68 billion to $67.49 billion on an annual basis. AAPL's buybacks aren't manipulation and shouldn't be viewed as financial mismanagement. Over the past 7 quarters, AAPL has bought back $138 billion in shares at an average rate of $19.71 billion per quarter. Each quarter AAPL repurchases shares, increasing the equity position your shares represent and increasing the amount of revenue and earnings per share your shares generate. This should be celebrated as AAPL creates shareholder value instead of hoarding cash.\nSource: Everything Money\nI recently wrote an article on Tesla (TSLA), and their management team has done the exact opposite of AAPL. Granted, TSLA is a growth company and has used the capital generated to grow its company but it's a perfect example of share dilution. At the end of 2011, TSLA had 522.7 million total common shares outstanding. As of the last report, TSLA had 984 million common shares outstanding. Over the past decade, TSLA has diluted shareholders by 88.15%. TSLA has issued 176.2 million new shares in the past five years and diluted its shareholders by 21.81% over that period. Issuing shares isn't always a negative, and to be fair toTSLA, they used the capital generated from issuing shares to grow their business. Since 2011 TSLA has increased its revenue from $204.2 million to $41.66 billion in the TTM (20,400%) and its revenue per share from $0.41 to $43.81, an increase of 10,585%. Even though TSLA has done a fantastic job of building out its company and generating tens of billions in annual revenue, its long-term shareholders have been diluted by 88.15% over the last decade.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nOn 4/28/21, AAPL announced that its board of directors authorized an increase of $90 billion to its existing share repurchase program. Based on the current $2.43 trillion valuation, AAPL's board added enough capital to buy back an additional 3.7% of shares on the open market. Based on the data from the past decade, AAPL will continue to be shareholder-friendly as their capital allocation efforts have increased alongside their FFC. I am shocked that anyone would consider this financial mismanagement. AAPL's share buyback program is another reason to own this great company. Each quarter AAPL buys back shares, increasing the percentage of equity in AAPL that your shares represent. The dedication AAPL has shown to increasing shareholder value through buybacks is something that shareholders can continue to look forward to as AAPL has continuously repurchased shares throughout every new all-time high share price.\nApple's valuation is ripe for new investments, especially after the recent pullback\nShares of AAPL traded for $134.78 on 6/28/21 and reached $156.68 on 9/7/21. Since then, AAPL experienced a pullback as shares receded to $143.04 on 9/20/21, which is a level we haven't seen since the middle of July. At the end of trading on 9/24321, shares of AAPL had bounced off their recent lows and settled at $146.92. After going through AAPL's metrics and reviewing the 1-year chart, I believe this pullback is an opportunity. Over the past year, AAPL's pullbacks have created higher lows. On October 30thAAPL's first pullback closed at $108.42, then in the next major pullback, AAPL went from $143.22 on 1/25/21 to $116.37 on 3/8/21. AAPL then climbed to $134.79 on 4/19/21 and receded to $122.77 on 5/12/21. Over the summer, AAPL reached $156.69 on 9/7/21 and recently fell to $142.94 on 9/20/21. Over the past year, each of AAPL's pullbacks has made higher lows, and over the year, AAPL has created higher highs. Going into the Q4 results where AAPL is on track to report its best year of operations, I believe this pullback is a good entry point to either start or add to a current position.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nAAPL,Amazon (AMZN),Alphabet (GOOGL)(NASDAQ:GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT) are the four largest companies in the S&P 500. When looking at some of the valuation metrics I like to utilize, AAPL looks cheap compared to its peers in Big Tech. Price to Sales is a valuation that compares the stock price to the revenue generated per share. It's an indication of the value placed on each dollar of revenue generated. A lower P/S ratio could indicate that the share price is undervalued. AAPL has a P/S ratio of 7.13 compared to MSFT's of 13.44 and GOOGL's of 8.71. GOOGL has the lowest P/S of the group with 3.89. Price to earnings is used to value a company's share price to the earnings it generates and indicates how much an investor is willing to pay per $1 of earnings. A lower P/E ratio could indicate that a company's share price is undervalued. Today the average P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 34.75. AAPL has a P/E ratio of 28.53 compared to MSFT's of 36.87, AMZN's of 58.54, and GOOGL's of 30.48. I look at the return on equity to measure each company's profitability in relation to the equity on the books. AAPL has a R/E ratio of 135.04% compared to MSFT's 43.15%, AMZN's 25.64%, and GOOGL's 26.49%. Not many people look at the price to free cash flow metric, but it's an equity valuation metric that indicates a company's ability to generate additional revenues. AAPL trades at a price to FCF multiple of 25.64x while MSFT trades at 40.09x, AMZN at 244.80x, and GOOGL at 32.46x.\nSource: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha\nAAPL is one of those companies that I believe you should own and add to when you're able to. I am so proud of my wife because she told me she bought more AAPL the other day when the markets pulled back. One of my good friends on our investment group chat has been buying shares of AAPL each month, and I believe he took the opportunity to add to AAPL during the pullback as well. I think AAPL is still a great long-term investment, and compared to its peers, it looks cheap. AAPL trades at just 25.64x its FCF with a P/E of 28.53 compared to the market average of 34.75. AAPL does an incredible job of generating profit from its equity, has an enticing valuation, and buys back shares every quarter; what's not to like?\nWhat are we looking at going into AAPL's Q4 2021 being reported at the end of October?\nAAPL doesn't follow a calendar year, and their fiscal year ends on 9/30 each year. When AAPL reports earnings at the end of October, they will be reporting their Q4 and 2021 fiscal year numbers. AAPL has set the stage for the best year in its operating history. AAPL finished 2020 with $274.52 billion in revenue, $104.96 billion of gross profit, and $57.4 billion in net income. In the first 9 months of their 2021 fiscal year, AAPL has produced $282.56 billion of revenue, $117.66 billion in gross profit, and $74.13 billion of net income. In the first 9 months of 2021, AAPL has exceeded its 2020 fiscal year in these three categories. AAPL has forecasted for double-digit YoY growth in Q4 2021, which would place their Q4 revenue at a minimum of $71.16 billion. AAPL has a current gross profit margin of 31.66% and a net income conversion ratio of 26.24%. If AAPL can convert 40% of their revenue to gross profit and 25% to net income, they would finish 2021 with $353.72 billion in revenue, $146.12 billion gross profit, and $91.92 billion in net income.\nI look at every investment as paying a present value for future cash flow. Some people say AAPL is overvalued, and their 2021 fiscal year is an anomaly. I don't have a crystal ball, and we're going to need to see what Tim Cook says on the Q4 earnings call and the projections for the fiscal year 2022. Looking at the chart I constructed below, AAPL had a period in 2016 and 2017 where their revenue fell below 2015's before their growth accelerated. Hypothetically if AAPL's revenue happens to peak for a year or two, it doesn't change my investment thesis as I have a long-term investment horizon for AAPL. From the fiscal year 2012–2017, AAPL repurchased $166 billion of shares which was an average of $27.67 billion annually. When revenue dipped, AAPL still created shareholder value by utilizing its cash to buy back shares. Heading into the close of 2021, AAPL will report a blowout year, and we will get some projections for 2022. AAPL's board has increased the share buyback program by $90 billion, and there is no indication AAPL is slowing down. This pullback is an opportunity to buy, and any future pullbacks are opportunities to buy shares of AAPL, in my opinion. AAPL generates the most FCF of any company I have seen, and they don't just use it to grow their business; they consistently reward shareholders through buybacks and dividends. Based on the information I have today, AAPL is a buy.\n(Source: Steven Fiorillo) (Data Source: Seeking Alpha)\nConclusion\nAAPL is one of America's most beloved companies with a cult-like following for their products. I believe the recent pullback is an opportunity for investors as AAPL's Q4 earnings and a record 2021 will be reported at the end of October. Based on the current numbers, AAPL could see a revenue increase of 28.85% and a net income increase of 60.14% YoY compared to its 2020 fiscal year. AAPL, compared to its peers, looks inexpensive as its P/E and price to FCF are significantly lower than MSFT, AMZN, and GOOGL. AAPL continues to create value for its shareholders by allocating a percentage of its FCF to buybacks and dividends. AAPL continues to innovate, has released new products, continues to build out its Services business segment, and recently added $90 billion to its share buyback program. I believe AAPL is an excellent long-term investment, and the current pullback is a buying opportunity.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866846730,"gmtCreate":1632756193020,"gmtModify":1632798045353,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087969381788350","idStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866846730","repostId":"1123391790","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1123391790","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632754543,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1123391790?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 22:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"ASML: It's Time To Take Profits<blockquote>ASML：是时候获利了结了</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1123391790","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWe wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&amp;P500 and our own expectations.</li>  <li>ASML is firing on all cylinders, but the valuation has become extremely stretched and we believe it is time to take profits or at least reduce the position.</li>  <li>We are positive on the company's fundamentals and still believe extreme ultraviolet technology is the future of chip manufacturing.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbbfa8ed4239d6e8d29d42367fc89fa\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>两年多前，我们写了一篇关于 ASML 的看涨文章，从那时起，它的表现大大超出了标准普尔 500 指数和我们自己的预期。</li><li>ASML 正在全力以赴，但估值已经变得极其捉襟见肘，我们认为现在是获利了结或至少减仓的时候了。</li><li>我们对公司的基本面持乐观态度，仍然相信极紫外技术是芯片制造的未来。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We wrote a&nbsp;bullish article&nbsp;on ASML(NASDAQ:ASML)&nbsp;more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&amp;P500 and our own expectations.</p><p><blockquote>两年多前，我们写了一篇关于 ASML（纳斯达克股票代码：ASML）的看涨文章，从那时起，它的表现明显优于标准普尔 500 指数和我们自己的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebeefb02d1c446db8e52248f8743ecf3\" tg-width=\"257\" tg-height=\"202\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Part of our thesis was that the industry was becoming a natural monopoly since few could match the extreme investment and R&amp;D needed, this is what we said back then:</p><p><blockquote>我们的部分论点是，该行业正在成为自然垄断，因为很少有人能与所需的极端投资和研发相匹配，这就是我们当时所说的：</blockquote></p><p>   Increasing complexity and R&amp;D costs have raised the stakes to a point where few companies will be able to compete in the future, increasing returns for the few left standing.  We also mentioned that the time had come for years of significant R&amp;D investment to pay off, and it seems we were right given the exponential growth in its gross profit as seen in the graph below.</p><p><blockquote>不断增加的复杂性和研发成本已经将风险提高到很少有公司能够在未来竞争的程度，从而增加了少数剩下的公司的回报。我们还提到，多年来的重大研发投资已经得到回报，考虑到其毛利润的指数级增长，如下图所示，我们似乎是对的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7695b604564361609481c3be5ba51ee5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While shares deserve a high price/sales multiple given the record gross profit margins, we believe it has gotten too stretched at ~18x.</p><p><blockquote>虽然考虑到创纪录的毛利率，股票值得拥有很高的市销率，但我们认为它在约 18 倍时已经变得过于捉襟见肘。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58849fe01d66780fe4568ad581e3496\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Part of the bullish thesis with ASML is that despite the cyclicality of its revenue, it's easy to observe that there is also a secular trend higher. ASML is increasing its market share and the industry is becoming almost a monopoly. ASML is turning out to be the only game in town when it comes to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) equipment, and customers are buying more equipment to meet the increases in semiconductor demand.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 的部分看涨论点是，尽管其收入具有周期性，但很容易观察到也存在长期上升趋势。ASML正在增加其市场份额，该行业几乎成为垄断。事实证明，ASML 是极紫外线 (EUV) 设备领域唯一的竞争对手，客户正在购买更多设备以满足半导体需求的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1846ea5e83cafd797cb6cc34fb9b9aa4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As revenue increases and the company becomes more successful it is not reducing R&amp;D expense, but instead is doubling down with more money dedicated than ever to R&amp;D. We like that the company keeps investing in its future, and this will make it increasingly difficult for competitors to ever catch up.</p><p><blockquote>随着收入的增加和公司变得更加成功，它并没有减少研发费用，而是加倍投入，投入比以往任何时候都多的资金用于研发。我们喜欢该公司不断投资于未来，这将使竞争对手越来越难以赶上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/640dbaeb6546cb17ae3d44efe00a9dbc\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> When we wrote the bullish article in 2019 shares were trading at an EV/EBITDA of ~18x, and now shares are almost 3x times more expensive based on this valuation multiple. Share price increases have clearly surpassed increases in profitability. We believe this is not sustainable and either business fundamentals catch up with the share price, or the share price adjusts to a more reasonable multiple.</p><p><blockquote>当我们在 2019 年撰写这篇看涨文章时，股价的 EV/EBITDA 约为 18 倍，而现在根据这一估值倍数，股价几乎高出 3 倍。股价涨幅显然超过了盈利能力的涨幅。我们认为这是不可持续的，要么业务基本面赶上股价，要么股价调整到更合理的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e53eb278ed1ce84114574a338bf8b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One thing that has not changed is the strength of the company's balance sheet. The company continues to have a net positive cash position and a very healthy quick ratio above 1.0 having more quick assets than current liabilities.</p><p><blockquote>有一点没有改变，那就是公司资产负债表的实力。该公司继续拥有净正现金头寸，速动比率高于 1.0，非常健康，速动资产多于流动负债。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a616b21047d8945929adab5654c491\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Back in 2019 the dividend was ~1%, and the company had just announced that it intended to increase it by 50%. Today, while the company continues rewarding shareholders with a dividend and share repurchases, the yield has become a minuscule 0.38%. The shareholder yield, which incorporates both the dividend and share repurchases, is a little better at 2% compared to ~3% back in 2019. These statistics and dividend compression reflect how expensive shares have gotten. We also think that share buybacks should be postponed until the share price is closer to the intrinsic value of the company.</p><p><blockquote>早在2019年，股息约为1%，该公司刚刚宣布打算将股息提高50%。如今，虽然该公司继续通过股息和股票回购来奖励股东，但收益率已降至微不足道的 0.38%。包括股息和股票回购在内的股东收益率为 2%，略高于 2019 年的约 3%。这些统计数据和股息压缩反映了股票变得多么昂贵。我们还认为，股票回购应该推迟到股价更接近公司的内在价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16e4d38a523ce2586faa9b0e572aaadb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the forward P/E ratio does an excellent job capturing how expensive shares have gotten. Back in 2019 shares were trading at a TTM and forward P/E of ~24x each. Both of these multiples have more than doubled since then.</p><p><blockquote>最后，远期市盈率很好地捕捉到了股票的价格。早在 2019 年，股票的 TTM 和远期市盈率约为每股 24 倍。从那时起，这两个倍数都增加了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1468398d132f9200083378aa535dd7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Advantages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争优势</b></blockquote></p><p> What we predicted about ASML's competitive advantages becoming stronger has come to pass. ASML is basically selling all the machines it can manufacture with its&nbsp;order book filling, and it is projecting a&nbsp;trillion dollar semiconductor market&nbsp;by 2030, twice its size today. Given the strength of their current offering and the fact that the company is still investing heavily in R&amp;D to further improve the machines, it is likely that ASML will capture a lot of the CapEx needed to double the production capacity of the industry.</p><p><blockquote>我们对 ASML 竞争优势变得更强的预测已经成真。ASML 基本上销售了其订单簿填充所能制造的所有机器，并且预计到 2030 年半导体市场将达到万亿美元，是目前规模的两倍。鉴于他们目前产品的实力以及该公司仍在研发方面投入巨资以进一步改进机器的事实，ASML 很可能会获得将该行业产能翻一番所需的大量资本支出。</blockquote></p><p> Looking back, this was our reasoning back then which led us to predict the company would come to dominate its industry:</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这就是我们当时的推理，它让我们预测该公司将主导其行业：</blockquote></p><p> While we believe the market is currently valuing ASML as a high-quality technology company with significant growth opportunities ahead, it appears the market is missing just how critical EUV lithography technology can become.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们相信市场目前将 ASML 视为一家拥有巨大增长机会的高质量科技公司，但市场似乎忽略了 EUV 光刻技术的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> The investments to keep Moore's Law alive and technology nodes shrinking are rising quickly as the complexity of the machines increases and the needed R&amp;D investments go up. This raises the stakes with every new generation forcing competitors out, giving the few remaining companies more pricing power and making their intellectual property more valuable. Some analysts however are starting to grasp the significance of these developments. For example, InsingerGilissen Bankiers analyst Jos Versteeg&nbsp;told Bloomberg:</p><p><blockquote>随着机器复杂性的增加和所需的R&amp;D投资的增加，保持摩尔定律活力和技术节点萎缩的投资正在迅速增加。这增加了每一代新产品都迫使竞争对手退出，给剩下的少数公司更多的定价权，并使他们的知识产权更有价值。然而，一些分析师开始理解这些发展的意义。例如，InsingerGilissen Bankiers 分析师 Jos Versteeg 告诉彭博社：</blockquote></p><p> ASML sees in its order portfolio it looks well for overall 2019, for a major part because it moves into EUV, in which they are the only player. The future for the coming seven years looks very bright.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 在其订单组合中看到 2019 年全年前景良好，这主要是因为它进军 EUV，而他们是其中唯一的参与者。未来七年的未来看起来非常光明。</blockquote></p><p> These are incredibly complex machines that&nbsp;weigh more than a 100 tons, require the use of high-powered lasers and plasma, and took years and&nbsp;incredible amounts of engineering ingenuity&nbsp;to get to work.</p><p><blockquote>这些极其复杂的机器重达100多吨，需要使用高功率激光和等离子体，需要数年时间和令人难以置信的工程创造力才能工作。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/973b1626dc094982f58ff77dc14b4098\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML 投资者演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Not only is EUV lithography technology critical to keep shrinking technology nodes, but its adoption also has some side benefits for customers. These include cycle time reductions, process simplification, and cost reductions.</p><p><blockquote>EUV光刻技术不仅对于保持技术节点的缩小至关重要，而且它的采用还为客户带来了一些附带好处。这些措施包括缩短周期时间、简化流程和降低成本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2abd6a60053e447cab0b1f2abb3ed64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML 投资者演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For these reasons several semiconductor technology leaders are building significant capacity for EUV systems.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些原因，几家半导体技术领导者正在为 EUV 系统建设大量产能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While ASML's fundamentals remain as strong as ever, we believe most of the good news is already reflected in the share price. We think right now is a good moment to sell, or at least pair down the investment. ASML is truly a one-of-a-kind company that dominates its industry in a way that rarely happens. It has left competitors in the dust and is growing with good profitability and attractive margins. However, at the end of the day a successful investment is as much the quality of the company as it is the price paid, and currently the price is very high.</p><p><blockquote>虽然ASML的基本面一如既往地强劲，但我们相信大部分好消息已经反映在股价上。我们认为现在是出售或至少追加投资的好时机。ASML 确实是一家独一无二的公司，它以一种罕见的方式主导着行业。它让竞争对手望尘莫及，并以良好的盈利能力和诱人的利润率不断增长。然而，归根结底，一项成功的投资不仅取决于公司的质量，也取决于支付的价格，而且目前价格非常高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>ASML: It's Time To Take Profits<blockquote>ASML：是时候获利了结了</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nASML: It's Time To Take Profits<blockquote>ASML：是时候获利了结了</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-27 22:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>We wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&amp;P500 and our own expectations.</li>  <li>ASML is firing on all cylinders, but the valuation has become extremely stretched and we believe it is time to take profits or at least reduce the position.</li>  <li>We are positive on the company's fundamentals and still believe extreme ultraviolet technology is the future of chip manufacturing.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbbfa8ed4239d6e8d29d42367fc89fa\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>两年多前，我们写了一篇关于 ASML 的看涨文章，从那时起，它的表现大大超出了标准普尔 500 指数和我们自己的预期。</li><li>ASML 正在全力以赴，但估值已经变得极其捉襟见肘，我们认为现在是获利了结或至少减仓的时候了。</li><li>我们对公司的基本面持乐观态度，仍然相信极紫外技术是芯片制造的未来。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Michael Vi/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We wrote a&nbsp;bullish article&nbsp;on ASML(NASDAQ:ASML)&nbsp;more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&amp;P500 and our own expectations.</p><p><blockquote>两年多前，我们写了一篇关于 ASML（纳斯达克股票代码：ASML）的看涨文章，从那时起，它的表现明显优于标准普尔 500 指数和我们自己的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebeefb02d1c446db8e52248f8743ecf3\" tg-width=\"257\" tg-height=\"202\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Part of our thesis was that the industry was becoming a natural monopoly since few could match the extreme investment and R&amp;D needed, this is what we said back then:</p><p><blockquote>我们的部分论点是，该行业正在成为自然垄断，因为很少有人能与所需的极端投资和研发相匹配，这就是我们当时所说的：</blockquote></p><p>   Increasing complexity and R&amp;D costs have raised the stakes to a point where few companies will be able to compete in the future, increasing returns for the few left standing.  We also mentioned that the time had come for years of significant R&amp;D investment to pay off, and it seems we were right given the exponential growth in its gross profit as seen in the graph below.</p><p><blockquote>不断增加的复杂性和研发成本已经将风险提高到很少有公司能够在未来竞争的程度，从而增加了少数剩下的公司的回报。我们还提到，多年来的重大研发投资已经得到回报，考虑到其毛利润的指数级增长，如下图所示，我们似乎是对的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7695b604564361609481c3be5ba51ee5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While shares deserve a high price/sales multiple given the record gross profit margins, we believe it has gotten too stretched at ~18x.</p><p><blockquote>虽然考虑到创纪录的毛利率，股票值得拥有很高的市销率，但我们认为它在约 18 倍时已经变得过于捉襟见肘。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58849fe01d66780fe4568ad581e3496\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Part of the bullish thesis with ASML is that despite the cyclicality of its revenue, it's easy to observe that there is also a secular trend higher. ASML is increasing its market share and the industry is becoming almost a monopoly. ASML is turning out to be the only game in town when it comes to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) equipment, and customers are buying more equipment to meet the increases in semiconductor demand.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 的部分看涨论点是，尽管其收入具有周期性，但很容易观察到也存在长期上升趋势。ASML正在增加其市场份额，该行业几乎成为垄断。事实证明，ASML 是极紫外线 (EUV) 设备领域唯一的竞争对手，客户正在购买更多设备以满足半导体需求的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1846ea5e83cafd797cb6cc34fb9b9aa4\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As revenue increases and the company becomes more successful it is not reducing R&amp;D expense, but instead is doubling down with more money dedicated than ever to R&amp;D. We like that the company keeps investing in its future, and this will make it increasingly difficult for competitors to ever catch up.</p><p><blockquote>随着收入的增加和公司变得更加成功，它并没有减少研发费用，而是加倍投入，投入比以往任何时候都多的资金用于研发。我们喜欢该公司不断投资于未来，这将使竞争对手越来越难以赶上。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/640dbaeb6546cb17ae3d44efe00a9dbc\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> When we wrote the bullish article in 2019 shares were trading at an EV/EBITDA of ~18x, and now shares are almost 3x times more expensive based on this valuation multiple. Share price increases have clearly surpassed increases in profitability. We believe this is not sustainable and either business fundamentals catch up with the share price, or the share price adjusts to a more reasonable multiple.</p><p><blockquote>当我们在 2019 年撰写这篇看涨文章时，股价的 EV/EBITDA 约为 18 倍，而现在根据这一估值倍数，股价几乎高出 3 倍。股价涨幅显然超过了盈利能力的涨幅。我们认为这是不可持续的，要么业务基本面赶上股价，要么股价调整到更合理的倍数。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0e53eb278ed1ce84114574a338bf8b5\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One thing that has not changed is the strength of the company's balance sheet. The company continues to have a net positive cash position and a very healthy quick ratio above 1.0 having more quick assets than current liabilities.</p><p><blockquote>有一点没有改变，那就是公司资产负债表的实力。该公司继续拥有净正现金头寸，速动比率高于 1.0，非常健康，速动资产多于流动负债。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49a616b21047d8945929adab5654c491\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Back in 2019 the dividend was ~1%, and the company had just announced that it intended to increase it by 50%. Today, while the company continues rewarding shareholders with a dividend and share repurchases, the yield has become a minuscule 0.38%. The shareholder yield, which incorporates both the dividend and share repurchases, is a little better at 2% compared to ~3% back in 2019. These statistics and dividend compression reflect how expensive shares have gotten. We also think that share buybacks should be postponed until the share price is closer to the intrinsic value of the company.</p><p><blockquote>早在2019年，股息约为1%，该公司刚刚宣布打算将股息提高50%。如今，虽然该公司继续通过股息和股票回购来奖励股东，但收益率已降至微不足道的 0.38%。包括股息和股票回购在内的股东收益率为 2%，略高于 2019 年的约 3%。这些统计数据和股息压缩反映了股票变得多么昂贵。我们还认为，股票回购应该推迟到股价更接近公司的内在价值。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16e4d38a523ce2586faa9b0e572aaadb\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the forward P/E ratio does an excellent job capturing how expensive shares have gotten. Back in 2019 shares were trading at a TTM and forward P/E of ~24x each. Both of these multiples have more than doubled since then.</p><p><blockquote>最后，远期市盈率很好地捕捉到了股票的价格。早在 2019 年，股票的 TTM 和远期市盈率约为每股 24 倍。从那时起，这两个倍数都增加了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe1468398d132f9200083378aa535dd7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Advantages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争优势</b></blockquote></p><p> What we predicted about ASML's competitive advantages becoming stronger has come to pass. ASML is basically selling all the machines it can manufacture with its&nbsp;order book filling, and it is projecting a&nbsp;trillion dollar semiconductor market&nbsp;by 2030, twice its size today. Given the strength of their current offering and the fact that the company is still investing heavily in R&amp;D to further improve the machines, it is likely that ASML will capture a lot of the CapEx needed to double the production capacity of the industry.</p><p><blockquote>我们对 ASML 竞争优势变得更强的预测已经成真。ASML 基本上销售了其订单簿填充所能制造的所有机器，并且预计到 2030 年半导体市场将达到万亿美元，是目前规模的两倍。鉴于他们目前产品的实力以及该公司仍在研发方面投入巨资以进一步改进机器的事实，ASML 很可能会获得将该行业产能翻一番所需的大量资本支出。</blockquote></p><p> Looking back, this was our reasoning back then which led us to predict the company would come to dominate its industry:</p><p><blockquote>回想起来，这就是我们当时的推理，它让我们预测该公司将主导其行业：</blockquote></p><p> While we believe the market is currently valuing ASML as a high-quality technology company with significant growth opportunities ahead, it appears the market is missing just how critical EUV lithography technology can become.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们相信市场目前将 ASML 视为一家拥有巨大增长机会的高质量科技公司，但市场似乎忽略了 EUV 光刻技术的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> The investments to keep Moore's Law alive and technology nodes shrinking are rising quickly as the complexity of the machines increases and the needed R&amp;D investments go up. This raises the stakes with every new generation forcing competitors out, giving the few remaining companies more pricing power and making their intellectual property more valuable. Some analysts however are starting to grasp the significance of these developments. For example, InsingerGilissen Bankiers analyst Jos Versteeg&nbsp;told Bloomberg:</p><p><blockquote>随着机器复杂性的增加和所需的R&amp;D投资的增加，保持摩尔定律活力和技术节点萎缩的投资正在迅速增加。这增加了每一代新产品都迫使竞争对手退出，给剩下的少数公司更多的定价权，并使他们的知识产权更有价值。然而，一些分析师开始理解这些发展的意义。例如，InsingerGilissen Bankiers 分析师 Jos Versteeg 告诉彭博社：</blockquote></p><p> ASML sees in its order portfolio it looks well for overall 2019, for a major part because it moves into EUV, in which they are the only player. The future for the coming seven years looks very bright.</p><p><blockquote>ASML 在其订单组合中看到 2019 年全年前景良好，这主要是因为它进军 EUV，而他们是其中唯一的参与者。未来七年的未来看起来非常光明。</blockquote></p><p> These are incredibly complex machines that&nbsp;weigh more than a 100 tons, require the use of high-powered lasers and plasma, and took years and&nbsp;incredible amounts of engineering ingenuity&nbsp;to get to work.</p><p><blockquote>这些极其复杂的机器重达100多吨，需要使用高功率激光和等离子体，需要数年时间和令人难以置信的工程创造力才能工作。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/973b1626dc094982f58ff77dc14b4098\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML 投资者演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Not only is EUV lithography technology critical to keep shrinking technology nodes, but its adoption also has some side benefits for customers. These include cycle time reductions, process simplification, and cost reductions.</p><p><blockquote>EUV光刻技术不仅对于保持技术节点的缩小至关重要，而且它的采用还为客户带来了一些附带好处。这些措施包括缩短周期时间、简化流程和降低成本。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2abd6a60053e447cab0b1f2abb3ed64\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: ASML investor presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：ASML 投资者演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For these reasons several semiconductor technology leaders are building significant capacity for EUV systems.</p><p><blockquote>由于这些原因，几家半导体技术领导者正在为 EUV 系统建设大量产能。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While ASML's fundamentals remain as strong as ever, we believe most of the good news is already reflected in the share price. We think right now is a good moment to sell, or at least pair down the investment. ASML is truly a one-of-a-kind company that dominates its industry in a way that rarely happens. It has left competitors in the dust and is growing with good profitability and attractive margins. However, at the end of the day a successful investment is as much the quality of the company as it is the price paid, and currently the price is very high.</p><p><blockquote>虽然ASML的基本面一如既往地强劲，但我们相信大部分好消息已经反映在股价上。我们认为现在是出售或至少追加投资的好时机。ASML 确实是一家独一无二的公司，它以一种罕见的方式主导着行业。它让竞争对手望尘莫及，并以良好的盈利能力和诱人的利润率不断增长。然而，归根结底，一项成功的投资不仅取决于公司的质量，也取决于支付的价格，而且目前价格非常高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457186-asml-its-time-to-take-profits\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ASML":"阿斯麦"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4457186-asml-its-time-to-take-profits","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1123391790","content_text":"Summary\n\nWe wrote a bullish article on ASML more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&P500 and our own expectations.\nASML is firing on all cylinders, but the valuation has become extremely stretched and we believe it is time to take profits or at least reduce the position.\nWe are positive on the company's fundamentals and still believe extreme ultraviolet technology is the future of chip manufacturing.\n\nMichael Vi/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nWe wrote a bullish article on ASML(NASDAQ:ASML) more than two years ago, since then it has significantly outperformed both the S&P500 and our own expectations.\nSource: Seeking Alpha\nPart of our thesis was that the industry was becoming a natural monopoly since few could match the extreme investment and R&D needed, this is what we said back then:\n\n Increasing complexity and R&D costs have raised the stakes to a point where few companies will be able to compete in the future, increasing returns for the few left standing.\n\nWe also mentioned that the time had come for years of significant R&D investment to pay off, and it seems we were right given the exponential growth in its gross profit as seen in the graph below.\nData by YCharts\nWhile shares deserve a high price/sales multiple given the record gross profit margins, we believe it has gotten too stretched at ~18x.\nData by YCharts\nPart of the bullish thesis with ASML is that despite the cyclicality of its revenue, it's easy to observe that there is also a secular trend higher. ASML is increasing its market share and the industry is becoming almost a monopoly. ASML is turning out to be the only game in town when it comes to extreme ultraviolet (EUV) equipment, and customers are buying more equipment to meet the increases in semiconductor demand.\nData by YCharts\nAs revenue increases and the company becomes more successful it is not reducing R&D expense, but instead is doubling down with more money dedicated than ever to R&D. We like that the company keeps investing in its future, and this will make it increasingly difficult for competitors to ever catch up.\nData by YCharts\nValuation\nWhen we wrote the bullish article in 2019 shares were trading at an EV/EBITDA of ~18x, and now shares are almost 3x times more expensive based on this valuation multiple. Share price increases have clearly surpassed increases in profitability. We believe this is not sustainable and either business fundamentals catch up with the share price, or the share price adjusts to a more reasonable multiple.\nData by YCharts\nOne thing that has not changed is the strength of the company's balance sheet. The company continues to have a net positive cash position and a very healthy quick ratio above 1.0 having more quick assets than current liabilities.\nData by YCharts\nBack in 2019 the dividend was ~1%, and the company had just announced that it intended to increase it by 50%. Today, while the company continues rewarding shareholders with a dividend and share repurchases, the yield has become a minuscule 0.38%. The shareholder yield, which incorporates both the dividend and share repurchases, is a little better at 2% compared to ~3% back in 2019. These statistics and dividend compression reflect how expensive shares have gotten. We also think that share buybacks should be postponed until the share price is closer to the intrinsic value of the company.\nData by YCharts\nFinally, the forward P/E ratio does an excellent job capturing how expensive shares have gotten. Back in 2019 shares were trading at a TTM and forward P/E of ~24x each. Both of these multiples have more than doubled since then.\nData by YCharts\nCompetitive Advantages\nWhat we predicted about ASML's competitive advantages becoming stronger has come to pass. ASML is basically selling all the machines it can manufacture with its order book filling, and it is projecting a trillion dollar semiconductor market by 2030, twice its size today. Given the strength of their current offering and the fact that the company is still investing heavily in R&D to further improve the machines, it is likely that ASML will capture a lot of the CapEx needed to double the production capacity of the industry.\nLooking back, this was our reasoning back then which led us to predict the company would come to dominate its industry:\nWhile we believe the market is currently valuing ASML as a high-quality technology company with significant growth opportunities ahead, it appears the market is missing just how critical EUV lithography technology can become.\nThe investments to keep Moore's Law alive and technology nodes shrinking are rising quickly as the complexity of the machines increases and the needed R&D investments go up. This raises the stakes with every new generation forcing competitors out, giving the few remaining companies more pricing power and making their intellectual property more valuable. Some analysts however are starting to grasp the significance of these developments. For example, InsingerGilissen Bankiers analyst Jos Versteeg told Bloomberg:\nASML sees in its order portfolio it looks well for overall 2019, for a major part because it moves into EUV, in which they are the only player. The future for the coming seven years looks very bright.\nThese are incredibly complex machines that weigh more than a 100 tons, require the use of high-powered lasers and plasma, and took years and incredible amounts of engineering ingenuity to get to work.\nSource: ASML investor presentation\nNot only is EUV lithography technology critical to keep shrinking technology nodes, but its adoption also has some side benefits for customers. These include cycle time reductions, process simplification, and cost reductions.\nSource: ASML investor presentation\nFor these reasons several semiconductor technology leaders are building significant capacity for EUV systems.\nConclusion\nWhile ASML's fundamentals remain as strong as ever, we believe most of the good news is already reflected in the share price. We think right now is a good moment to sell, or at least pair down the investment. ASML is truly a one-of-a-kind company that dominates its industry in a way that rarely happens. It has left competitors in the dust and is growing with good profitability and attractive margins. However, at the end of the day a successful investment is as much the quality of the company as it is the price paid, and currently the price is very high.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ASML":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":151416094,"gmtCreate":1625102095918,"gmtModify":1633944799266,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087969381788350","authorIdStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like comment pls","listText":"Like comment pls","text":"Like comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151416094","repostId":"1178516480","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1178516480","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625094708,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1178516480?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-01 07:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘历史新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1178516480","media":"Reuters","summary":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as inves","content":"<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）--标普500周三连续第五次创下收盘新高，投资者在结束本月和本季度时基本上对积极的经济数据不屑一顾，转而关注周五备受期待的就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> In the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.</p><p><blockquote>在 2021 年上半年的最后一个交易日，各指数表现低迷，区间震荡，蓝筹股道琼斯指数上涨，而纳斯达克指数则小幅走低。</blockquote></p><p> All three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&amp;P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&amp;P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.</p><p><blockquote>这三个指数均连续第五个季度上涨，其中标准普尔指数上涨 8.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨 9.5%，道琼斯指数上涨 4.6%。标普500上半年表现创1998年以来第二好，上涨14.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&amp;P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”</p><p><blockquote>“康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德 Dakota Wealth 高级投资组合经理罗伯特-帕夫利克（Robert Pavlik）说：”这是一个不错的季度。“截至昨晚收盘，标准普尔指数今年迄今已上涨超过 14%，超过道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数。这表明股市正在全面反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> For the month, the bellwether S&amp;P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.</p><p><blockquote>本月，领头羊标普500指数连续第五次上涨，而道琼斯指数则结束了四个月的连涨，收盘小幅走低。纳斯达克在6月份也取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p> This month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>本月，投资者的兴趣从对经济敏感的周期性股票转向成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> “Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”</p><p><blockquote>“帕夫利克补充说：”今年迄今为止的领先行业是你所期望的。“能源、金融和工业，这表明经济环境正处于周期的早期阶段”。</blockquote></p><p> “(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.</p><p><blockquote>“帕夫利克补充说：”在人们开始接受（美联储主席杰罗姆）鲍威尔关注短暂通胀的言论后，（投资者）开始转向成长型（股票）。</blockquote></p><p> “Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“一些重新开放的行业已经有点长了，这正在引导人们恢复增长”。</blockquote></p><p> (Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )</p><p><blockquote>（图表：6 月份成长型股票跑赢价值，年初至今差距缩小）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b82b4dfdc765d913811f9d8572e60f6\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约因弗内斯律师事务所首席投资策略师蒂姆-格里斯基（Tim Ghriskey）说：”整体股市继续上涨，在相当长一段时间内涨幅非常稳定。“虽然按历史标准来看，估值肯定很高，但受益于经济复苏，估值一直处于相当稳定的水平。”</blockquote></p><p> The private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>根据薪资处理商 ADP 的数据，6 月份私营部门新增就业岗位 692,000 个，轻松超出预期。经济学家在劳工部将于周五发布的更全面的就业报告中补充说，这一数字比私人就业人数高出 9.2 万人。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&amp;P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 210.22 点，或 0.61%，至 34,502.51 点；标普500指数上涨 5.7 点，或 0.13%，至 4,297.5 点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 24.38 点，或 0.17%，至 14,503.95 点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.</p><p><blockquote>在标准普尔的 11 个主要板块中，有 6 个板块收高，其中能源板块涨幅最大。房地产是当天最大的输家。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.</p><p><blockquote>在德国国防部宣布将购买该飞机制造商的五架 P-8A 海上管制飞机后，波音公司股价上涨了 1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛周二宣布将开始销售仅限处方的胰岛素类似物，股价上涨 2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技在发布季度财报前上涨了 2.5%，但在芯片制造商公布季度财报后的盘后交易中股价相对持平。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨发行量超过下跌发行量，比例为 1.35 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.19 比 1 的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下20个52周新高，没有新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下70个新高和36个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 108.5 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 110.5 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>S&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘历史新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nS&P 500 notches fifth straight record closing high, fifth straight quarterly gain<blockquote>标普500连续第五次创下收盘历史新高，连续第五个季度上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-01 07:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&amp;P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.</p><p><blockquote>纽约（路透社）--标普500周三连续第五次创下收盘新高，投资者在结束本月和本季度时基本上对积极的经济数据不屑一顾，转而关注周五备受期待的就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> In the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.</p><p><blockquote>在 2021 年上半年的最后一个交易日，各指数表现低迷，区间震荡，蓝筹股道琼斯指数上涨，而纳斯达克指数则小幅走低。</blockquote></p><p> All three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&amp;P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&amp;P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.</p><p><blockquote>这三个指数均连续第五个季度上涨，其中标准普尔指数上涨 8.2%，纳斯达克指数上涨 9.5%，道琼斯指数上涨 4.6%。标普500上半年表现创1998年以来第二好，上涨14.5%。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&amp;P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”</p><p><blockquote>“康涅狄格州费尔菲尔德 Dakota Wealth 高级投资组合经理罗伯特-帕夫利克（Robert Pavlik）说：”这是一个不错的季度。“截至昨晚收盘，标准普尔指数今年迄今已上涨超过 14%，超过道琼斯指数和纳斯达克指数。这表明股市正在全面反弹。”</blockquote></p><p> For the month, the bellwether S&amp;P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.</p><p><blockquote>本月，领头羊标普500指数连续第五次上涨，而道琼斯指数则结束了四个月的连涨，收盘小幅走低。纳斯达克在6月份也取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p> This month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>本月，投资者的兴趣从对经济敏感的周期性股票转向成长型股票。</blockquote></p><p> “Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”</p><p><blockquote>“帕夫利克补充说：”今年迄今为止的领先行业是你所期望的。“能源、金融和工业，这表明经济环境正处于周期的早期阶段”。</blockquote></p><p> “(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.</p><p><blockquote>“帕夫利克补充说：”在人们开始接受（美联储主席杰罗姆）鲍威尔关注短暂通胀的言论后，（投资者）开始转向成长型（股票）。</blockquote></p><p> “Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“一些重新开放的行业已经有点长了，这正在引导人们恢复增长”。</blockquote></p><p> (Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )</p><p><blockquote>（图表：6 月份成长型股票跑赢价值，年初至今差距缩小）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b82b4dfdc765d913811f9d8572e60f6\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”</p><p><blockquote>“纽约因弗内斯律师事务所首席投资策略师蒂姆-格里斯基（Tim Ghriskey）说：”整体股市继续上涨，在相当长一段时间内涨幅非常稳定。“虽然按历史标准来看，估值肯定很高，但受益于经济复苏，估值一直处于相当稳定的水平。”</blockquote></p><p> The private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>根据薪资处理商 ADP 的数据，6 月份私营部门新增就业岗位 692,000 个，轻松超出预期。经济学家在劳工部将于周五发布的更全面的就业报告中补充说，这一数字比私人就业人数高出 9.2 万人。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&amp;P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨 210.22 点，或 0.61%，至 34,502.51 点；标普500指数上涨 5.7 点，或 0.13%，至 4,297.5 点；纳斯达克综合指数下跌 24.38 点，或 0.17%，至 14,503.95 点。</blockquote></p><p> Among the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.</p><p><blockquote>在标准普尔的 11 个主要板块中，有 6 个板块收高，其中能源板块涨幅最大。房地产是当天最大的输家。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.</p><p><blockquote>在德国国防部宣布将购买该飞机制造商的五架 P-8A 海上管制飞机后，波音公司股价上涨了 1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Walmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.</p><p><blockquote>沃尔玛周二宣布将开始销售仅限处方的胰岛素类似物，股价上涨 2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技在发布季度财报前上涨了 2.5%，但在芯片制造商公布季度财报后的盘后交易中股价相对持平。</blockquote></p><p> Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.</p><p><blockquote>纽约证券交易所上涨发行量超过下跌发行量，比例为 1.35 比 1；在纳斯达克，1.19 比 1 的比率有利于下跌者。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.</p><p><blockquote>标普500创下20个52周新高，没有新低；纳斯达克综合指数创下70个新高和36个新低。</blockquote></p><p> Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的成交量为 108.5 亿股，而过去 20 个交易日的平均成交量为 110.5 亿股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R\">Reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-notches-fifth-straight-record-closing-high-fifth-straight-quarterly-gain-idUSKCN2E619R","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1178516480","content_text":"NEW YORK (Reuters) - The S&P 500 nabbed its fifth straight record closing high on Wednesday as investors ended the month and the quarter by largely shrugging off positive economic data and looking toward Friday’s highly anticipated employment report.\nIn the last session of 2021’s first half, the indexes were languid and range-bound, with the blue-chip Dow posting gains, while the Nasdaq edged lower.\nAll three indexes posted their fifth consecutive quarterly gains, with the S&P rising 8.2%, the Nasdaq advancing 9.5% and the Dow rising 4.6%. The S&P 500 registered its second-best first-half performance since 1998, rising 14.5%.\n“It’s been a good quarter,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth in Fairfield, Connecticut. “As of last night’s close, the S&P has gained more than 14% year-to-date, topping the Dow and the Nasdaq. That indicates that the stock market is having a broad rally.”\nFor the month, the bellwether S&P 500 notched its fifth consecutive advance, while the Dow snapped its four-month winning streak to end slightly lower. The Nasdaq also gained ground in June.\nThis month, investor appetite shifted away from economically sensitive cyclicals in favor of growth stocks.\n“Leading sectors year-to-date are what you’d expect,” Pavlik added. “Energy, financials and industrials, and that speaks to an economic environment that’s in the early stages of a cycle.”\n“(Investors) started the switch back to growth (stocks) after people started to buy in to (Fed Chair Jerome) Powell’s comments that focus on transitory inflation,” Pavlik added.\n“Some of the reopening trades have gotten a bit long in the tooth and that’s leading people back to growth.”\n(Graphic: Growths stocks outperform value in June, narrow YTD gap, )\n“The overall stock market continues to be on a tear, with very consistent gains for quite some time,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. “Valuations, while certainly high by historical standards, have been at a fairly consistent level, benefiting from the economic recovery.”\nThe private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, breezing past expectations, according to payroll processor ADP. The number is 92,000 higher than the private payroll adds economists predict from the Labor Department’s more comprehensive employment report due on Friday.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 210.22 points, or 0.61%, to 34,502.51, the S&P 500 gained 5.7 points, or 0.13%, to 4,297.5 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 24.38 points, or 0.17%, to 14,503.95.\nAmong the 11 major sectors in the S&P, six ended the session higher, with energy enjoying the biggest percentage gain. Real estate was the day’s biggest loser.\nBoeing Co gained 1.6% after Germany’s defense ministry announced it would buy five of the planemaker’s P-8A maritime control aircraft, coming on the heels of United Airlines unveiling its largest-ever order for new planes.\nWalmart jumped 2.7% after announcing on Tuesday that it would start selling a prescription-only insulin analog.\nMicron Technology advanced 2.5% ahead of its quarterly earnings release, but was relatively unchanged in after-hours trading following the chipmaker’s quarterly results.\nAdvancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.35-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.19-to-1 ratio favored decliners.\nThe S&P 500 posted 20 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 70 new highs and 36 new lows.\nVolume on U.S. exchanges was 10.85 billion shares, compared with the 11.05 billion average over the last 20 trading days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810212119,"gmtCreate":1629980231531,"gmtModify":1631893157024,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087969381788350","authorIdStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810212119","repostId":"1120384889","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120384889","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629981194,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1120384889?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-26 20:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120384889","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Thursday, a day after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit record ","content":"<p>U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Thursday, a day after the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq hit record closing highs.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周四小幅走低，一天前标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:33 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 40 points, or 0.11%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 0.75 points, or 0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 19 points, or 0.12%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 8:33，道琼斯电子迷你指数上涨 40 点，即 0.11%，标普500电子迷你指数下跌 0.75 点，即 0.02%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数下跌 19 点，即 0.12%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/833c44beffe5ea2359adfa1b85af4f96\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Initial claims for unemployment insurance were little changed over the past week, hovering around pandemic-era lows as the jobs market shows further signs of healing.</p><p><blockquote>随着就业市场显示出进一步复苏的迹象，首次申请失业保险人数在过去一周几乎没有变化，徘徊在大流行时代的低点附近。</blockquote></p><p> First-time filings totaled 353,000 for the week ended Aug. 14, a slight increase from the previous week's 349,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That was slightly worse than the 350,000 Dow Jones estimate.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周四报告称，截至 8 月 14 日当周，首次申请总数为 353,000 份，比前一周的 349,000 份略有增加。这比道琼斯估计的 35 万股略差。</blockquote></p><p> A separate economic reading showed that gross domestic product increased at a 6.6% annualized pace in the second quarter, according to the second estimate Thursday from the Commerce Department. That was ahead of the 6.5% initial estimate but a notch below the 6.7% Dow Jones estimate.</p><p><blockquote>根据商务部周四的第二次估计，另一项经济数据显示，第二季度国内生产总值按年率计算增长了 6.6%。这高于最初预期的 6.5%，但低于道琼斯预期的 6.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton Interactive,Gap and Dell Technologies are scheduled to post results after markets close.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton Interactive、Gap 和戴尔技术公司计划在收盘后公布业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前波动最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> Coty(COTY) – The cosmetics maker’s shares added 5.1% in the premarket after it said it expects a return to annual sales growth this year. Coty’s adjusted loss for its latest quarter was 9 cents per share, 3 cents wider than expected, but sales did come in above Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>科蒂（Coty）--这家化妆品制造商的股价在盘前上涨了 5.1%，此前该公司表示预计今年的年销售额将恢复增长。科蒂最近一个季度的调整后每股亏损为 9 美分，比预期扩大 3 美分，但销售额确实高于华尔街的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Dollar General(DG) – The discount retailer beat estimates by 10 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.69 per share and revenue slightly above forecasts. Comparable store sales fell 4.7%, less than the 5.1% drop expected by analysts surveyed by StreetAccount. However, Dollar General did forecast lower-than-expected earnings for the full year, and its shares fell 4.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Dollar General (DG) – 这家折扣零售商超出预期 10 美分，调整后季度收益为每股 2.69 美元，收入略高于预期。可比商店销售额下降 4.7%，低于 StreetAccount 调查的分析师预期的 5.1% 降幅。不过，Dollar General 确实预测全年盈利低于预期，其股价在盘前交易中下跌 4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Dollar Tree(DLTR) – Dollar Tree shares fell 5.7% in premarket trading after the discount retailer posted a mixed quarter. Revenue fell below Street forecasts, while earnings of $1.23 per share did beat the consensus estimate of $1.00.</p><p><blockquote>Dollar Tree (DLTR) – 折扣零售商 Dollar Tree 公布季度业绩喜忧参半后，其股价在盘前交易中下跌 5.7%。收入低于华尔街预测，而每股收益为 1.23 美元，确实超出了市场普遍预期的 1.00 美元。</blockquote></p><p> J.M. Smucker(SJM) – The food producer earned an adjusted $1.90 per share for its latest quarter, 4 cents above estimates, with revenue slightly above Wall Street projections. However, Smucker cut its full-year forecast, noting higher input costs and supply chain disruption. Shares lost 3.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote>J.MSmucker(SJM)——这家食品生产商最新季度调整后每股收益为 1.90 美元，比预期高出 4 美分，收入略高于华尔街预测。然而，Smucker 下调了全年预测，指出投入成本上升和供应链中断。盘前股价下跌 3.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie &amp; Fitch(ANF) – The apparel retailer’s shares slid 4% in the premarket, as revenue fell below analyst forecasts. Abercrombie did report an adjusted profit of $1.70 per share, compared with a 77-cent consensus estimate.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie &amp; Fitch（ANF）--由于收入低于分析师预测，这家服装零售商的股价在盘前下跌了 4%。Abercrombie 确实报告调整后每股利润为 1.70 美元，而市场普遍预期为 77 美分。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce.com(CRM) – Salesforce earned an adjusted $1.48 per share for the second quarter, beating the 92 cents consensus estimate, with revenue also topping Wall Street forecasts. Salesforce also issued an upbeat outlook as companies continue to shift applications to the cloud. Shares rose 2.6% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce.com(CRM) – Salesforce 第二季度调整后每股收益为 1.48 美元，超过了 92 美分的市场普遍预期，收入也超出了华尔街的预期。随着公司继续将应用程序转移到云，Salesforce 也发布了乐观的前景。股价在盘前交易中上涨 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Ulta Beauty(ULTA) – Ulta shares rallied 6.2% in the premarket after it more than doubled the $2.59 consensus estimate with a quarterly profit of $4.56 per share. The cosmetics retailer’s revenue beat estimates as well, and it raised its full-year outlook as an overall improvement in the beauty industry continues.</p><p><blockquote>Ulta Beauty (ULTA) – Ulta 股价在盘前上涨 6.2%，季度利润为每股 4.56 美元，是市场普遍预期 2.59 美元的两倍多。这家化妆品零售商的收入也超出了预期，并上调了全年前景，因为美容行业的整体改善仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> Williams-Sonoma(WSM) – Williams-Sonoma surged 13.6% in premarket trading following top and bottom-line beats as well as a raised outlook and a 20% dividend increase. The housewares retailer reported an adjusted quarterly profit of $3.24 per share compared with the $2.61 consensus estimate, as the pandemic-induced focus on homes and home decor continued.</p><p><blockquote>Williams-Sonoma (WSM) – Williams-Sonoma 在营收和利润超出预期、上调前景和股息增加 20% 后，在盘前交易中飙升 13.6%。这家家居用品零售商公布的调整后季度利润为每股 3.24 美元，而市场普遍预期为 2.61 美元，因为疫情引发的对家居和家居装饰的关注仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> Box(BOX) – Box beat estimates by 2 cents with an adjusted quarterly profit of 21 cents per share, while the cloud storage company’s revenue also came in above analyst forecasts. Box also raised its full-year revenue guidance, saying it continues to benefit from the “megatrend” of digital transformation. However, shares fell 1.7% in premarket action</p><p><blockquote>Box(BOX)--Box 调整后每股季度利润为 21 美分，超出预期 2 美分，而这家云存储公司的收入也高于分析师的预期。Box 还上调了全年收入指引，称其将继续受益于数字化转型的 “大趋势 ”。然而，股价在盘前交易中下跌 1.7%</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake(SNOW) – Snowflake lost an adjusted 4 cents per share for its latest quarter, narrower than the 15-cent loss anticipated by Wall Street, while the database software company’s revenue came in above consensus. Sales more than doubled from a year ago, but its overall loss widened compared with a year earlier. Snowflake jumped 5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake（SNOW）--Snowflake 最近一个季度调整后每股亏损 4 美分，低于华尔街预期的 15 美分亏损，而这家数据库软件公司的营收高于预期。销售额比去年同期增长了一倍多，但整体亏损较去年同期扩大。Snowflake 在盘前交易中上涨 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Pure Storage(PSTG) – Pure Storage soared 13.4% in the premarket after it nearly tripled the 5-cent consensus estimate with adjusted quarterly earnings of 14 cents per share. The cloud storage company’s revenue also topped Street projections as subscription revenue rose 31% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>Pure Storage (PSTG) – Pure Storage 在盘前飙升 13.4%，调整后季度收益为每股 14 美分，几乎是市场普遍预期 5 美分的两倍。这家云存储公司的收入也超过了华尔街的预期，订阅收入比一年前增长了 31%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Autodesk(ADSK) – Autodesk shares tumbled 7.5% in premarket trading, as quarterly revenue was merely in line with estimates and its current-quarter earnings guidance disappointed investors. Autodesk did beat estimates by 8 cents for its latest quarter with adjusted quarterly earnings of $1.21 per share.</p><p><blockquote>欧特克 (ADSK) – 欧特克股价在盘前交易中下跌 7.5%，原因是季度收入仅符合预期，且本季度盈利指引令投资者失望。Autodesk 最新季度的调整后季度收益确实超出预期 8 美分，每股收益为 1.21 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Western Digital(WDC) – Western Digital is in talks for a possible $20 billion merger with Japanese chipmaker Kioxia, according to multiple reports. Talks are said to have heated up in recent weeks, and a deal could be reached as early as mid-September, according to people familiar with the matter. Western Digital rose 1.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote>西部数据(WDC)——据多份报道，西部数据正在就可能与日本芯片制造商铠侠进行200亿美元的合并进行谈判。据知情人士透露，最近几周谈判升温，最早可能在9月中旬达成协议。西部数据盘前上涨 1.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Thursday<blockquote>周四美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-26 20:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Thursday, a day after the S&amp;P 500 and the Nasdaq hit record closing highs.</p><p><blockquote>美国股指期货周四小幅走低，一天前标普500和纳斯达克创下收盘历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:33 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 40 points, or 0.11%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were down 0.75 points, or 0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 19 points, or 0.12%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 8:33，道琼斯电子迷你指数上涨 40 点，即 0.11%，标普500电子迷你指数下跌 0.75 点，即 0.02%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数下跌 19 点，即 0.12%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/833c44beffe5ea2359adfa1b85af4f96\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"380\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Initial claims for unemployment insurance were little changed over the past week, hovering around pandemic-era lows as the jobs market shows further signs of healing.</p><p><blockquote>随着就业市场显示出进一步复苏的迹象，首次申请失业保险人数在过去一周几乎没有变化，徘徊在大流行时代的低点附近。</blockquote></p><p> First-time filings totaled 353,000 for the week ended Aug. 14, a slight increase from the previous week's 349,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That was slightly worse than the 350,000 Dow Jones estimate.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周四报告称，截至 8 月 14 日当周，首次申请总数为 353,000 份，比前一周的 349,000 份略有增加。这比道琼斯估计的 35 万股略差。</blockquote></p><p> A separate economic reading showed that gross domestic product increased at a 6.6% annualized pace in the second quarter, according to the second estimate Thursday from the Commerce Department. That was ahead of the 6.5% initial estimate but a notch below the 6.7% Dow Jones estimate.</p><p><blockquote>根据商务部周四的第二次估计，另一项经济数据显示，第二季度国内生产总值按年率计算增长了 6.6%。这高于最初预期的 6.5%，但低于道琼斯预期的 6.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Peloton Interactive,Gap and Dell Technologies are scheduled to post results after markets close.</p><p><blockquote>Peloton Interactive、Gap 和戴尔技术公司计划在收盘后公布业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前波动最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> Coty(COTY) – The cosmetics maker’s shares added 5.1% in the premarket after it said it expects a return to annual sales growth this year. Coty’s adjusted loss for its latest quarter was 9 cents per share, 3 cents wider than expected, but sales did come in above Wall Street forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>科蒂（Coty）--这家化妆品制造商的股价在盘前上涨了 5.1%，此前该公司表示预计今年的年销售额将恢复增长。科蒂最近一个季度的调整后每股亏损为 9 美分，比预期扩大 3 美分，但销售额确实高于华尔街的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Dollar General(DG) – The discount retailer beat estimates by 10 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.69 per share and revenue slightly above forecasts. Comparable store sales fell 4.7%, less than the 5.1% drop expected by analysts surveyed by StreetAccount. However, Dollar General did forecast lower-than-expected earnings for the full year, and its shares fell 4.2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Dollar General (DG) – 这家折扣零售商超出预期 10 美分，调整后季度收益为每股 2.69 美元，收入略高于预期。可比商店销售额下降 4.7%，低于 StreetAccount 调查的分析师预期的 5.1% 降幅。不过，Dollar General 确实预测全年盈利低于预期，其股价在盘前交易中下跌 4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Dollar Tree(DLTR) – Dollar Tree shares fell 5.7% in premarket trading after the discount retailer posted a mixed quarter. Revenue fell below Street forecasts, while earnings of $1.23 per share did beat the consensus estimate of $1.00.</p><p><blockquote>Dollar Tree (DLTR) – 折扣零售商 Dollar Tree 公布季度业绩喜忧参半后，其股价在盘前交易中下跌 5.7%。收入低于华尔街预测，而每股收益为 1.23 美元，确实超出了市场普遍预期的 1.00 美元。</blockquote></p><p> J.M. Smucker(SJM) – The food producer earned an adjusted $1.90 per share for its latest quarter, 4 cents above estimates, with revenue slightly above Wall Street projections. However, Smucker cut its full-year forecast, noting higher input costs and supply chain disruption. Shares lost 3.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote>J.MSmucker(SJM)——这家食品生产商最新季度调整后每股收益为 1.90 美元，比预期高出 4 美分，收入略高于华尔街预测。然而，Smucker 下调了全年预测，指出投入成本上升和供应链中断。盘前股价下跌 3.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Abercrombie &amp; Fitch(ANF) – The apparel retailer’s shares slid 4% in the premarket, as revenue fell below analyst forecasts. Abercrombie did report an adjusted profit of $1.70 per share, compared with a 77-cent consensus estimate.</p><p><blockquote>Abercrombie &amp; Fitch（ANF）--由于收入低于分析师预测，这家服装零售商的股价在盘前下跌了 4%。Abercrombie 确实报告调整后每股利润为 1.70 美元，而市场普遍预期为 77 美分。</blockquote></p><p> Salesforce.com(CRM) – Salesforce earned an adjusted $1.48 per share for the second quarter, beating the 92 cents consensus estimate, with revenue also topping Wall Street forecasts. Salesforce also issued an upbeat outlook as companies continue to shift applications to the cloud. Shares rose 2.6% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Salesforce.com(CRM) – Salesforce 第二季度调整后每股收益为 1.48 美元，超过了 92 美分的市场普遍预期，收入也超出了华尔街的预期。随着公司继续将应用程序转移到云，Salesforce 也发布了乐观的前景。股价在盘前交易中上涨 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Ulta Beauty(ULTA) – Ulta shares rallied 6.2% in the premarket after it more than doubled the $2.59 consensus estimate with a quarterly profit of $4.56 per share. The cosmetics retailer’s revenue beat estimates as well, and it raised its full-year outlook as an overall improvement in the beauty industry continues.</p><p><blockquote>Ulta Beauty (ULTA) – Ulta 股价在盘前上涨 6.2%，季度利润为每股 4.56 美元，是市场普遍预期 2.59 美元的两倍多。这家化妆品零售商的收入也超出了预期，并上调了全年前景，因为美容行业的整体改善仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> Williams-Sonoma(WSM) – Williams-Sonoma surged 13.6% in premarket trading following top and bottom-line beats as well as a raised outlook and a 20% dividend increase. The housewares retailer reported an adjusted quarterly profit of $3.24 per share compared with the $2.61 consensus estimate, as the pandemic-induced focus on homes and home decor continued.</p><p><blockquote>Williams-Sonoma (WSM) – Williams-Sonoma 在营收和利润超出预期、上调前景和股息增加 20% 后，在盘前交易中飙升 13.6%。这家家居用品零售商公布的调整后季度利润为每股 3.24 美元，而市场普遍预期为 2.61 美元，因为疫情引发的对家居和家居装饰的关注仍在继续。</blockquote></p><p> Box(BOX) – Box beat estimates by 2 cents with an adjusted quarterly profit of 21 cents per share, while the cloud storage company’s revenue also came in above analyst forecasts. Box also raised its full-year revenue guidance, saying it continues to benefit from the “megatrend” of digital transformation. However, shares fell 1.7% in premarket action</p><p><blockquote>Box(BOX)--Box 调整后每股季度利润为 21 美分，超出预期 2 美分，而这家云存储公司的收入也高于分析师的预期。Box 还上调了全年收入指引，称其将继续受益于数字化转型的 “大趋势 ”。然而，股价在盘前交易中下跌 1.7%</blockquote></p><p> Snowflake(SNOW) – Snowflake lost an adjusted 4 cents per share for its latest quarter, narrower than the 15-cent loss anticipated by Wall Street, while the database software company’s revenue came in above consensus. Sales more than doubled from a year ago, but its overall loss widened compared with a year earlier. Snowflake jumped 5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Snowflake（SNOW）--Snowflake 最近一个季度调整后每股亏损 4 美分，低于华尔街预期的 15 美分亏损，而这家数据库软件公司的营收高于预期。销售额比去年同期增长了一倍多，但整体亏损较去年同期扩大。Snowflake 在盘前交易中上涨 5%。</blockquote></p><p> Pure Storage(PSTG) – Pure Storage soared 13.4% in the premarket after it nearly tripled the 5-cent consensus estimate with adjusted quarterly earnings of 14 cents per share. The cloud storage company’s revenue also topped Street projections as subscription revenue rose 31% from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote>Pure Storage (PSTG) – Pure Storage 在盘前飙升 13.4%，调整后季度收益为每股 14 美分，几乎是市场普遍预期 5 美分的两倍。这家云存储公司的收入也超过了华尔街的预期，订阅收入比一年前增长了 31%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Autodesk(ADSK) – Autodesk shares tumbled 7.5% in premarket trading, as quarterly revenue was merely in line with estimates and its current-quarter earnings guidance disappointed investors. Autodesk did beat estimates by 8 cents for its latest quarter with adjusted quarterly earnings of $1.21 per share.</p><p><blockquote>欧特克 (ADSK) – 欧特克股价在盘前交易中下跌 7.5%，原因是季度收入仅符合预期，且本季度盈利指引令投资者失望。Autodesk 最新季度的调整后季度收益确实超出预期 8 美分，每股收益为 1.21 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Western Digital(WDC) – Western Digital is in talks for a possible $20 billion merger with Japanese chipmaker Kioxia, according to multiple reports. Talks are said to have heated up in recent weeks, and a deal could be reached as early as mid-September, according to people familiar with the matter. Western Digital rose 1.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote>西部数据(WDC)——据多份报道，西部数据正在就可能与日本芯片制造商铠侠进行200亿美元的合并进行谈判。据知情人士透露，最近几周谈判升温，最早可能在9月中旬达成协议。西部数据盘前上涨 1.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DELL":"戴尔","DLTR":"美元树公司","ULTA":"Ulta美容",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","ANF":"爱芬奇","SJM":"斯马克","CRM":"赛富时","WDC":"西部数据",".DJI":"道琼斯","BOX":"Box Inc","SNOW":"Snowflake","COTY":"科蒂","WSM":"Williams-Sonoma Inc","ADSK":"欧特克",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120384889","content_text":"U.S. stock index futures edged lower on Thursday, a day after the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hit record closing highs.\nAt 8:33 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 40 points, or 0.11%, S&P 500 e-minis were down 0.75 points, or 0.02%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were down 19 points, or 0.12%.\n\nInitial claims for unemployment insurance were little changed over the past week, hovering around pandemic-era lows as the jobs market shows further signs of healing.\nFirst-time filings totaled 353,000 for the week ended Aug. 14, a slight increase from the previous week's 349,000, the Labor Department reported Thursday. That was slightly worse than the 350,000 Dow Jones estimate.\nA separate economic reading showed that gross domestic product increased at a 6.6% annualized pace in the second quarter, according to the second estimate Thursday from the Commerce Department. That was ahead of the 6.5% initial estimate but a notch below the 6.7% Dow Jones estimate.\nPeloton Interactive,Gap and Dell Technologies are scheduled to post results after markets close.\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket:\nCoty(COTY) – The cosmetics maker’s shares added 5.1% in the premarket after it said it expects a return to annual sales growth this year. Coty’s adjusted loss for its latest quarter was 9 cents per share, 3 cents wider than expected, but sales did come in above Wall Street forecasts.\nDollar General(DG) – The discount retailer beat estimates by 10 cents with adjusted quarterly earnings of $2.69 per share and revenue slightly above forecasts. Comparable store sales fell 4.7%, less than the 5.1% drop expected by analysts surveyed by StreetAccount. However, Dollar General did forecast lower-than-expected earnings for the full year, and its shares fell 4.2% in premarket trading.\nDollar Tree(DLTR) – Dollar Tree shares fell 5.7% in premarket trading after the discount retailer posted a mixed quarter. Revenue fell below Street forecasts, while earnings of $1.23 per share did beat the consensus estimate of $1.00.\nJ.M. Smucker(SJM) – The food producer earned an adjusted $1.90 per share for its latest quarter, 4 cents above estimates, with revenue slightly above Wall Street projections. However, Smucker cut its full-year forecast, noting higher input costs and supply chain disruption. Shares lost 3.1% in the premarket.\nAbercrombie & Fitch(ANF) – The apparel retailer’s shares slid 4% in the premarket, as revenue fell below analyst forecasts. Abercrombie did report an adjusted profit of $1.70 per share, compared with a 77-cent consensus estimate.\nSalesforce.com(CRM) – Salesforce earned an adjusted $1.48 per share for the second quarter, beating the 92 cents consensus estimate, with revenue also topping Wall Street forecasts. Salesforce also issued an upbeat outlook as companies continue to shift applications to the cloud. Shares rose 2.6% in premarket trading.\nUlta Beauty(ULTA) – Ulta shares rallied 6.2% in the premarket after it more than doubled the $2.59 consensus estimate with a quarterly profit of $4.56 per share. The cosmetics retailer’s revenue beat estimates as well, and it raised its full-year outlook as an overall improvement in the beauty industry continues.\nWilliams-Sonoma(WSM) – Williams-Sonoma surged 13.6% in premarket trading following top and bottom-line beats as well as a raised outlook and a 20% dividend increase. The housewares retailer reported an adjusted quarterly profit of $3.24 per share compared with the $2.61 consensus estimate, as the pandemic-induced focus on homes and home decor continued.\nBox(BOX) – Box beat estimates by 2 cents with an adjusted quarterly profit of 21 cents per share, while the cloud storage company’s revenue also came in above analyst forecasts. Box also raised its full-year revenue guidance, saying it continues to benefit from the “megatrend” of digital transformation. However, shares fell 1.7% in premarket action\nSnowflake(SNOW) – Snowflake lost an adjusted 4 cents per share for its latest quarter, narrower than the 15-cent loss anticipated by Wall Street, while the database software company’s revenue came in above consensus. Sales more than doubled from a year ago, but its overall loss widened compared with a year earlier. Snowflake jumped 5% in premarket trading.\nPure Storage(PSTG) – Pure Storage soared 13.4% in the premarket after it nearly tripled the 5-cent consensus estimate with adjusted quarterly earnings of 14 cents per share. The cloud storage company’s revenue also topped Street projections as subscription revenue rose 31% from a year ago.\nAutodesk(ADSK) – Autodesk shares tumbled 7.5% in premarket trading, as quarterly revenue was merely in line with estimates and its current-quarter earnings guidance disappointed investors. Autodesk did beat estimates by 8 cents for its latest quarter with adjusted quarterly earnings of $1.21 per share.\nWestern Digital(WDC) – Western Digital is in talks for a possible $20 billion merger with Japanese chipmaker Kioxia, according to multiple reports. Talks are said to have heated up in recent weeks, and a deal could be reached as early as mid-September, according to people familiar with the matter. Western Digital rose 1.1% in the premarket.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NQmain":0.9,"COTY":0.9,"ADSK":0.9,"WDC":0.9,"CRM":0.9,"WSM":0.9,"ANF":0.9,"DLTR":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"DELL":0.9,"GPS":0.9,"BOX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ULTA":0.9,"SNOW":0.9,"PSTG":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SJM":0.9,"PTON":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":895717468,"gmtCreate":1628773526954,"gmtModify":1631893157097,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087969381788350","authorIdStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/895717468","repostId":"1140749727","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140749727","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628775487,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1140749727?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-12 21:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Stock Slides nearly 6% on Morgan Stanley Downgrade, Memory Chip Sector Warning<blockquote>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片行业警告，美光科技股价下跌近 6%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140749727","media":"Thestreet","summary":"Micron Technology shares slumped nearly 6% after analysts at Morgan Stanley cut their rating on the ","content":"<p>Micron Technology&nbsp;shares slumped&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;6%&nbsp;after analysts at Morgan Stanley cut their rating on the group amid a warning that 'winter is coming' for the global memory chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师警告称全球存储芯片行业“冬天即将来临”，下调了美光科技的评级，导致该集团股价暴跌近 6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8d2a465fc843b4324fc0a010c494ede\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"624\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore lowered his rating on the stock by one notch, to 'equal-weight', while slashing his price target by $30 to $75 a share, as the bank noted \"a challenging backdrop for forward returns” for Micron as \"DRAM conditions lose steam\" in its shift from mid to late cycle. Morgan Stanley also cut its rating on South Korean chipmakers SK Hynix.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）分析师约瑟夫-摩尔（Joseph Moore）将该股评级下调一级，至“同等权重”，同时将目标价下调30美元至75美元，因为该行指出，随着美光从周期中后期转向周期 “DRAM 状况失去动力”，美光的 “远期回报面临着充满挑战的背景”。摩根士丹利还下调了韩国芯片制造商SK海力士的评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Stock Slides nearly 6% on Morgan Stanley Downgrade, Memory Chip Sector Warning<blockquote>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片行业警告，美光科技股价下跌近 6%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Stock Slides nearly 6% on Morgan Stanley Downgrade, Memory Chip Sector Warning<blockquote>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片行业警告，美光科技股价下跌近 6%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-12 21:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Micron Technology&nbsp;shares slumped&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;6%&nbsp;after analysts at Morgan Stanley cut their rating on the group amid a warning that 'winter is coming' for the global memory chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师警告称全球存储芯片行业“冬天即将来临”，下调了美光科技的评级，导致该集团股价暴跌近 6%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8d2a465fc843b4324fc0a010c494ede\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"624\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore lowered his rating on the stock by one notch, to 'equal-weight', while slashing his price target by $30 to $75 a share, as the bank noted \"a challenging backdrop for forward returns” for Micron as \"DRAM conditions lose steam\" in its shift from mid to late cycle. Morgan Stanley also cut its rating on South Korean chipmakers SK Hynix.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）分析师约瑟夫-摩尔（Joseph Moore）将该股评级下调一级，至“同等权重”，同时将目标价下调30美元至75美元，因为该行指出，随着美光从周期中后期转向周期 “DRAM 状况失去动力”，美光的 “远期回报面临着充满挑战的背景”。摩根士丹利还下调了韩国芯片制造商SK海力士的评级。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/micron-stock-slides-on-morgan-stanley-downgrade-dram-warning?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/micron-stock-slides-on-morgan-stanley-downgrade-dram-warning?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140749727","content_text":"Micron Technology shares slumped nearly 6% after analysts at Morgan Stanley cut their rating on the group amid a warning that 'winter is coming' for the global memory chip sector.\n\nMorgan Stanley analyst Joseph Moore lowered his rating on the stock by one notch, to 'equal-weight', while slashing his price target by $30 to $75 a share, as the bank noted \"a challenging backdrop for forward returns” for Micron as \"DRAM conditions lose steam\" in its shift from mid to late cycle. Morgan Stanley also cut its rating on South Korean chipmakers SK Hynix.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835505165,"gmtCreate":1629725760457,"gmtModify":1631893157052,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087969381788350","authorIdStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835505165","repostId":"2161747692","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":821166735,"gmtCreate":1633706397145,"gmtModify":1633706431236,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087969381788350","authorIdStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/821166735","repostId":"2173929300","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":880140597,"gmtCreate":1631027058619,"gmtModify":1631890745339,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087969381788350","authorIdStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880140597","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊!在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 20%，连续七个月上涨，并一路创下 50 多个新高。此外，去年市场从 2020 年 3 月的低点反弹了 68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨速度。刺激支出已见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。更重要的是，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。对于越来越昂贵的股票持有者来说，这些都不太可能满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，做好准备迎接波动性下跌，这相互矛盾地推动巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。“Nuveen 全球股票首席投资官赛拉-马利克（Saira Malik）说：”万物反弹已经过去。“这不会是一股急剧上涨的经济潮流，让所有船只都离开这里”。</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识。<i>巴伦</i>最近咨询过。所有人都看到标普500在周四收盘价 4536 点附近收盘。他们的平均目标：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>与最近的趋势相比，明年的涨幅也显得微不足道。该集团预计 2022 年标普500将再增长 6%，升至 4,800 左右。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的 21 倍，债券收益率很低，现金收益率在考虑通货膨胀因素后几乎为零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察家建议关注 “优质 ”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、停滞不前的备忘录股和数字世界的狗狗币。在股票中，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不佳，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅反弹是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免 Covid 大流行病造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美国央行每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并将投资者推向包括股票在内的风险更高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买规模，此举可能会动摇各种风险资产。“摩根士丹利（atMorgan Stanley）首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师迈克-威尔逊（Mike Wilson）说：”对我们来说，这很简单：缩减规模就是收紧规模。“这是（美联储）远离最大限度宽松的第一步。他们这次对此非常精打细算，但底线是这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>战略家们指出，政府的刺激支出也达到了顶峰。每周 300 美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于 9 月 6 日到期。尽管国会似乎可能会在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约 5500 亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分摊多年。基础设施刺激措施将在短期内对占美国国内生产总值增长近 70% 的消费支出的提振作用，远不及去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>民主党批准的预算法案只应遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施的支出，以及其他政党优先事项。国会可能会投票提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这笔支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他充满政治色彩的问题同样可能导致股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计支出法案，以避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>十月关闭。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对新冠肺炎德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要局限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本看法并不包括新一波会破坏经济增长的封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是最近通货膨胀一直非常火爆。美国消费者价格指数在 6 月和 7 月均以年化 5.4% 的速度上涨--美联储的评级是暂时的，尽管其他人并不确定。战略家们站在鲍威尔一边；他们预计明年通货膨胀率将大幅下降。他们的预测降幅在 2.5% 至 3.5% 之间，他们认为这对消费者和企业来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，高于 2.5% 的通胀率，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着现在超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德多资产策略集团（BlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group）收入投资主管迈克尔-弗雷德里克斯（Michael Fredericks）说：”我们认为通胀将继续高于金融危机以来的水平，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们就很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。“因此，债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将是逐步发生的。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比目前的水平高出约 35 个基点，即百分之一个百分点，但低于 2021 年 3 月高点时达到的 1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10 年期国债收益率可能达到 2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不算大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股市来说意义更大。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会给股票估值带来压力，原因有二。收益率较高的债券会给股票带来竞争，如果按较高的利率贴现，公司未来的收益在目前就毫无价值。尽管如此，2% 左右的 10 年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至 Covid 之前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师也认为标普500持有的市盈率远高于其 30 年平均水平 16 倍远期市盈率。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破了 23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要 10 年期国债收益率保持在 2% 范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够保持在高位。在收益率大幅上升或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力之前，回到 16 倍的长期平均水平是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>他表示，如果收益率飙升至 2% 或 2.25% 以上，投资者可能会开始更认真地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">状态</a>Street'schief 投资组合策略师 Gaurav Mallik： “我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10 年期国债收益率）超过 2%，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出股市的估值风险是不对称的： “他说：”考虑到增长放缓和我们在周期中的位置，市盈率不太可能上升，而且很有可能下降 10% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，如果 16 到 23 倍的远期市盈率是这个范围，“你已经处于这个范围的高端了。潜在的风险大于回报”。</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率的压缩，这使得利润增长之路更加重要。在经历了去年的盈利低迷之后，策略师平均预计标普500今年的盈利将跃升 46%，达到约 204 美元。随后，2022 年可能会上涨 9%，达到约 222.50 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是 2022 年联邦企业税率的提高。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定，投资者有望听到更多关于潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25% 的联邦企业利润率可能是一个妥协数字，高于 2018 年以来的 21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的 28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约 5%。随着民主党和解法案的临近，该指数可能会下降类似的幅度，但影响应仅限于最初的修正。与 2017 年 12 月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>撇开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应忽视大局： 美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。“马利克说：”周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长至少将持续到 2022 年，我们希望偏向具有这种风险敞口的资产。</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将非常火爆。当国内生产总值增长高于平均水平时，价值就会战胜增长，周期性股票会战胜防御性股票。”- Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场 道富银行策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和技术。这种方法既包括银行和矿业等经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）美国股票策略主管洛里-卡尔瓦西纳（Lori Calvasina）同样采取杠铃策略，同时投资周期性和成长性。她喜欢的行业是能源、金融和科技。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”金融和能源领域的估值仍然比成长型行业（如科技或非必需消费品）更具吸引力。“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的 Covid 浪潮......今明两年我们将迎来火热的经济，传统上，当 GDP 增长高于平均水平时，价值战胜增长，周期性战胜防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是至关重要的，尤其是进入 2022 年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”历史的剧本是，从经济衰退中走出来，往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量超越业绩，然后领导层会回到高质量。“但从低质量到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师倾向于经济敏感股票和稳定增长股票的组合，包括科技股。金融股应该表现良好，尤其是在债券收益率上升的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管具有质量属性的股票今年夏天的表现优于大盘，但根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析认为，自去年11月首次报道积极的疫苗消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德（BlackRock）的弗雷德里克斯（Fredericks）说：”我们正在进入一个周期中期环境，此时潜在的经济增长依然强劲，但势头开始放缓。“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤为出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融业，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的必需消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>该公司的股票策略主管克里斯托弗-哈维（Christopher Harvey）认为，大流行后的受益者和防御性敞口相结合才是最佳选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票--在今年秋季市场不确定或压力时期，这些股票的表现应该会优于平均水平--并且 “Covid贝塔值 ”较高，即对大流行病的好消息或坏消息敏感。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师不得不将这些股票评级相当于买入。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”近期存在经济不确定性、利率不确定性和 Covid 风险，一般来说，9 月前后我们正处于一年中季节性疲软的时期。“如果我们能在低体积和高 Covid beta 之间取得平衡，我们就能减轻即将到来的许多不确定性和波动性，这些催化剂的时间安排。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望有这种[重新开放的风险敞口]”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的高Covid贝塔值低波动性股票名单包括苹果公司（AAPL）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">伊克维亚</a>控股公司 (IQV) 和马斯科 (MAS)。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。景顺 KBW 银行交易所交易基金 (KBWB) 为美国该行业提供广泛的投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”我们喜欢估值[和]信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且 Covid 贝塔系数也更高。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>更便宜的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股票市场的其他大部分相反，更高的利率将成为银行的推动力，然后银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>威尔逊说。“如今，与其他行业相比，医疗保健行业每单位增长的成本要低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，医疗保健行业为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”Health insurerHumana (HUM) 将威尔逊的 “新鲜资金买入清单”评级为买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen 的 Malik 也将目光投向了医疗保健行业，即制药和生物技术行业，以获得价格相对较低的增长机会。她指出，Seagen (SGEN) 专注于肿瘤药物，可能是制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维 (ABBV)，该公司的远期市盈率为 8 倍，股息收益率为 4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层可以限制损害，并看到这家价值 2000 亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都经历了艰难的时期。Seagen 上周下跌超过 8%，至 152 美元左右，原因是有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官最近出售了大量股票。周三，艾伯维股价下跌 7%，至 112.27 美元，此前美国食品和药物管理局要求 JAK 抑制剂贴上新的警告标签，JAK 抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，包括以下成分之一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生公司 (JNJ) 和思科系统公司 (CSCO) 是其他通过<i>巴伦</i>质量属性屏幕。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳步上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点回落，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊!在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 20%，连续七个月上涨，并一路创下 50 多个新高。此外，去年市场从 2020 年 3 月的低点反弹了 68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨速度。刺激支出已见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。更重要的是，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。对于越来越昂贵的股票持有者来说，这些都不太可能满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，做好准备迎接波动性下跌，这相互矛盾地推动巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。“Nuveen 全球股票首席投资官赛拉-马利克（Saira Malik）说：”万物反弹已经过去。“这不会是一股急剧上涨的经济潮流，让所有船只都离开这里”。</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识。<i>巴伦</i>最近咨询过。所有人都看到标普500在周四收盘价 4536 点附近收盘。他们的平均目标：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>与最近的趋势相比，明年的涨幅也显得微不足道。该集团预计 2022 年标普500将再增长 6%，升至 4,800 左右。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的 21 倍，债券收益率很低，现金收益率在考虑通货膨胀因素后几乎为零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察家建议关注 “优质 ”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、停滞不前的备忘录股和数字世界的狗狗币。在股票中，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不佳，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅反弹是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免 Covid 大流行病造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美国央行每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并将投资者推向包括股票在内的风险更高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买规模，此举可能会动摇各种风险资产。“摩根士丹利（atMorgan Stanley）首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师迈克-威尔逊（Mike Wilson）说：”对我们来说，这很简单：缩减规模就是收紧规模。“这是（美联储）远离最大限度宽松的第一步。他们这次对此非常精打细算，但底线是这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>战略家们指出，政府的刺激支出也达到了顶峰。每周 300 美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于 9 月 6 日到期。尽管国会似乎可能会在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约 5500 亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分摊多年。基础设施刺激措施将在短期内对占美国国内生产总值增长近 70% 的消费支出的提振作用，远不及去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>民主党批准的预算法案只应遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施的支出，以及其他政党优先事项。国会可能会投票提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这笔支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他充满政治色彩的问题同样可能导致股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计支出法案，以避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>十月关闭。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对新冠肺炎德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要局限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本看法并不包括新一波会破坏经济增长的封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是最近通货膨胀一直非常火爆。美国消费者价格指数在 6 月和 7 月均以年化 5.4% 的速度上涨--美联储的评级是暂时的，尽管其他人并不确定。战略家们站在鲍威尔一边；他们预计明年通货膨胀率将大幅下降。他们的预测降幅在 2.5% 至 3.5% 之间，他们认为这对消费者和企业来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，高于 2.5% 的通胀率，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着现在超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德多资产策略集团（BlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group）收入投资主管迈克尔-弗雷德里克斯（Michael Fredericks）说：”我们认为通胀将继续高于金融危机以来的水平，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们就很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。“因此，债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将是逐步发生的。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比目前的水平高出约 35 个基点，即百分之一个百分点，但低于 2021 年 3 月高点时达到的 1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10 年期国债收益率可能达到 2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不算大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股市来说意义更大。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会给股票估值带来压力，原因有二。收益率较高的债券会给股票带来竞争，如果按较高的利率贴现，公司未来的收益在目前就毫无价值。尽管如此，2% 左右的 10 年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至 Covid 之前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师也认为标普500持有的市盈率远高于其 30 年平均水平 16 倍远期市盈率。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破了 23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要 10 年期国债收益率保持在 2% 范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够保持在高位。在收益率大幅上升或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力之前，回到 16 倍的长期平均水平是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>他表示，如果收益率飙升至 2% 或 2.25% 以上，投资者可能会开始更认真地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">状态</a>Street'schief 投资组合策略师 Gaurav Mallik： “我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10 年期国债收益率）超过 2%，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出股市的估值风险是不对称的： “他说：”考虑到增长放缓和我们在周期中的位置，市盈率不太可能上升，而且很有可能下降 10% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，如果 16 到 23 倍的远期市盈率是这个范围，“你已经处于这个范围的高端了。潜在的风险大于回报”。</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率的压缩，这使得利润增长之路更加重要。在经历了去年的盈利低迷之后，策略师平均预计标普500今年的盈利将跃升 46%，达到约 204 美元。随后，2022 年可能会上涨 9%，达到约 222.50 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是 2022 年联邦企业税率的提高。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定，投资者有望听到更多关于潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25% 的联邦企业利润率可能是一个妥协数字，高于 2018 年以来的 21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的 28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约 5%。随着民主党和解法案的临近，该指数可能会下降类似的幅度，但影响应仅限于最初的修正。与 2017 年 12 月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>撇开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应忽视大局： 美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。“马利克说：”周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长至少将持续到 2022 年，我们希望偏向具有这种风险敞口的资产。</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将非常火爆。当国内生产总值增长高于平均水平时，价值就会战胜增长，周期性股票会战胜防御性股票。”- Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场 道富银行策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和技术。这种方法既包括银行和矿业等经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）美国股票策略主管洛里-卡尔瓦西纳（Lori Calvasina）同样采取杠铃策略，同时投资周期性和成长性。她喜欢的行业是能源、金融和科技。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”金融和能源领域的估值仍然比成长型行业（如科技或非必需消费品）更具吸引力。“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的 Covid 浪潮......今明两年我们将迎来火热的经济，传统上，当 GDP 增长高于平均水平时，价值战胜增长，周期性战胜防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是至关重要的，尤其是进入 2022 年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”历史的剧本是，从经济衰退中走出来，往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量超越业绩，然后领导层会回到高质量。“但从低质量到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师倾向于经济敏感股票和稳定增长股票的组合，包括科技股。金融股应该表现良好，尤其是在债券收益率上升的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管具有质量属性的股票今年夏天的表现优于大盘，但根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析认为，自去年11月首次报道积极的疫苗消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德（BlackRock）的弗雷德里克斯（Fredericks）说：”我们正在进入一个周期中期环境，此时潜在的经济增长依然强劲，但势头开始放缓。“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤为出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融业，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的必需消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>该公司的股票策略主管克里斯托弗-哈维（Christopher Harvey）认为，大流行后的受益者和防御性敞口相结合才是最佳选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票--在今年秋季市场不确定或压力时期，这些股票的表现应该会优于平均水平--并且 “Covid贝塔值 ”较高，即对大流行病的好消息或坏消息敏感。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师不得不将这些股票评级相当于买入。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”近期存在经济不确定性、利率不确定性和 Covid 风险，一般来说，9 月前后我们正处于一年中季节性疲软的时期。“如果我们能在低体积和高 Covid beta 之间取得平衡，我们就能减轻即将到来的许多不确定性和波动性，这些催化剂的时间安排。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望有这种[重新开放的风险敞口]”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的高Covid贝塔值低波动性股票名单包括苹果公司（AAPL）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">伊克维亚</a>控股公司 (IQV) 和马斯科 (MAS)。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。景顺 KBW 银行交易所交易基金 (KBWB) 为美国该行业提供广泛的投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”我们喜欢估值[和]信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且 Covid 贝塔系数也更高。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>更便宜的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股票市场的其他大部分相反，更高的利率将成为银行的推动力，然后银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>威尔逊说。“如今，与其他行业相比，医疗保健行业每单位增长的成本要低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，医疗保健行业为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”Health insurerHumana (HUM) 将威尔逊的 “新鲜资金买入清单”评级为买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen 的 Malik 也将目光投向了医疗保健行业，即制药和生物技术行业，以获得价格相对较低的增长机会。她指出，Seagen (SGEN) 专注于肿瘤药物，可能是制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维 (ABBV)，该公司的远期市盈率为 8 倍，股息收益率为 4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层可以限制损害，并看到这家价值 2000 亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都经历了艰难的时期。Seagen 上周下跌超过 8%，至 152 美元左右，原因是有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官最近出售了大量股票。周三，艾伯维股价下跌 7%，至 112.27 美元，此前美国食品和药物管理局要求 JAK 抑制剂贴上新的警告标签，JAK 抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，包括以下成分之一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生公司 (JNJ) 和思科系统公司 (CSCO) 是其他通过<i>巴伦</i>质量属性屏幕。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳步上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点回落，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819843512,"gmtCreate":1630058523036,"gmtModify":1704955307339,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087969381788350","authorIdStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819843512","repostId":"2162847016","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891293590,"gmtCreate":1628389880610,"gmtModify":1633747459085,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087969381788350","authorIdStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls thank you","listText":"Like pls thank you","text":"Like pls thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891293590","repostId":"2157492839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147398216,"gmtCreate":1626332805735,"gmtModify":1633927776052,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087969381788350","authorIdStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please&nbsp;","listText":"Like please&nbsp;","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147398216","repostId":"2151548988","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":506,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148650422,"gmtCreate":1625973276766,"gmtModify":1633931211648,"author":{"id":"4087969381788350","authorId":"4087969381788350","name":"addyloh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a38dc3736886e9760c56bc8fd1b2dee4","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087969381788350","authorIdStr":"4087969381788350"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like this","listText":"Like this","text":"Like this","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148650422","repostId":"1112201050","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112201050","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625966101,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1112201050?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易远未结束。投资者需要了解的内容。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112201050","media":"Barrons","summary":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the de","content":"<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，它们何时会再次坠毁的时间已经在流逝。会是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经过去半年了，核心 “备忘录股票 ”的交易价格仍然处于研究这些股票多年的人认为离谱的水平。Clover Health Investments (CLOV) 和 Newegg Commerce (NEGG) 等新名称最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易员--长期以来被嘲笑为 “哑巴钱 ”--的集体努力成功地让股市飙升，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型的迹象，也没有表现出足以证明其估值的利润，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告称其关键的网络安全部门将达到收入指导的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>虽然大型经纪商的交易量较 2 月份的峰值略有下降，但仍高于疫情爆发前的两到三倍。数量惊人的这种活动发生在散户交易者青睐的股票中。例如，AMC院线控股公司（AMC）6 月份的日均交易额达到 131 亿美元，超过了苹果（AAPL）的 95 亿美元和亚马逊（AMZN）的 103 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍然致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多的交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉捏酸面团面包；交易者只会变得越来越饥饿。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种食欲，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。目前，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“美国海军电子技术员布兰登-卢切克（Brandon Luczek）在给《巴伦周刊》的一封电子邮件中写道：”我看到'逢低买入'的情绪一刻也没有减弱。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票飙升是由散户投资者交易的增加推动的。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，超过1000万人开设了新账户。这一记录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，在今年不到一半的时间里，经纪商已经增加了超过 1000 万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这种现象的推车，也是马。他们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这一行动推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在 1 月底和 2 月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财（SCHW）最近的一项调查发现，15%的现有交易者在2020年后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>激增中最突出的参与者是 Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了 550 万个资金账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布，第一季度吸引了 160 万 35 岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了 223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在 Robinhood 零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在 2019 年将佣金降至零。这为新客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲置现金进行交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在套现。富达希望在投资者获得驾照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅 13 岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood 正在乘势而上进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的 10 倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与他们的老同行不同。E*Trade 交易主管克里斯-拉金（Chris Larkin）说，多年来，“ETF 一直备受青睐”，E*Trade 现归摩根士丹利（MS）所有。但挑选个股显然是 “2021 年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，随着世界各地的投资者押注疫情复苏并避免疲软的债券收益率，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但 ETF 不像股票那样点亮留言板。这并不是说顶级公司的单行道。游戏驿站二月份确实下跌，华尔街享受了幸灾乐祸的时刻。它并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>“盈透证券（Interactive Brokers）首席策略师史蒂夫-索斯尼克（Steve Sosnick）写道：”就像蝉一样，备忘录交易者在表面上隐匿了几个月后又重新活跃起来。索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种货币转向另一种货币。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“他写道：”我不认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅回调后，备忘录股票卷土重来完全是巧合。</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为备忘录股票是一个 “独立的板块”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对备忘录股票革命的反应一直是孤立专业人士认为不理性的市场部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也在放弃报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样把零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来 17 年内消失。股票交易已经发生了永久性的变化。今年，零售活动占股本量的 24%，高于 2019 年的 15%。新信条的追随者不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚法学院（Columbia Law School）专门研究证券市场的教授约书亚-米茨（Joshua Mitts）说：”这实际上反映了我们所看到的趋势的逆转，即与个别公司的接触越来越少。“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她所投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>— Matt Kohrs，26 岁，每天在 YouTube 上直播股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早早加入的人的生活，并且仍然在更高的名字上。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了纽约程序员的工作，搬到了费城，并开始在YouTube上每天7个小时直播股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>YouTube 拥有 35 万粉丝，它正在支付账单。科尔斯说，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以拿到与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给迷因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以阻止他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 甚至在上周取消了一项拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢 Reddit 人群的反响。过去一年，AMC 的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官亚当-阿伦（Adam Aron）在推特上表示，他看到了 “许多人赞成，许多人反对 ”对他增发 2500 万股股票的提议的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的 AMC 年会上进行表决。该公司没有回答有关如何调查股东的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室里决定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者正在花费更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕零售行动进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在 “阿尔法”，但要实现这一目标可能需要一些紧张的数字运算。当然，并不是所有的留言板聊天都会导致价格持续上涨，如果没有大量的数据分析，零售订单流很难与机构流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在购买哪些股票和正在出售哪些股票的投资者来说，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的 20% 的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的 20% 的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他说：”他们认为这几乎就像一份保险，以限制他们的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于零售商来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动是由社区精神支撑的。其背后的力量既是情感上的，也是道德上的，也是经济上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是希望证明自己，并像利润一样惩罚保守派。他们互相学习市场，有时会放大或揭穿关于华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票运动与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“26 岁的科尔斯说：”华尔街让我们的经济陷入困境，但没有人因此惹上麻烦。“所以，我认为他们认为我们不仅可以赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格 (Claire Hirschberg) 是一名 28 岁的工会组织者，她在 1 月份从朋友那里听说 Robinhood 上购买了价值约 50 美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他是一名长期的资金经理。“她笑着说：”他很生气我买了游戏驿站，还不肯卖。“这让我想永远拿着它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像老华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，在你成为合伙人之前，你不会打菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你从不离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而且不是按顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万散户交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认财务损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对本集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不规范语言。你是 “猿类 ”或 “弱智 ”大军的一员。你坚持住，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>集体行动不仅仅是为了精神支持。交易策略取决于人们保持买入压力，迫使做空，或买入看涨期权，从而引发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔 (Keith Gill) 在二月份众议院金融服务委员会听证会上虚拟露面，成为 Reddit 散户交易员大军推高游戏驿站股价的代言人。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来给备忘录运动注入氧气。6 月中旬，AMC 的空头权益占该股流通量的 17%，低于 1 月份的 28%，但降幅不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格上涨，空头们也控制不住自己。多年来一直关注游戏驿站的韦德布什证券分析师迈克尔-帕切特（Michael Pachter）说，他们开始 “流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”。“他说：”让我感到震惊的是精神错乱的定义，就是一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头却不断出现。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思-吉尔（Keith Gill）和他的 Reddit raiders 一直在挤压他们，而且一直在起作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit 人群需要团结起来，但该社区有时会出现裂缝。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和 AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经崩溃。 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond (BBBY) 在 1 月底和 6 月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于 1 月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人已经赔钱了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心 wallstreetbets——激发游戏驿站狂热的最初 Reddit 留言板——发展如此之快，以至于它已经失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。有些人搬到了其他留言板，如 r/superstonk，希望能重现老社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司 Hype Equity 的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔 (Travis Rehl) 表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣。现在，他看到了一种不断增长的趋势，即股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的聊天，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”这让人怀疑什么是真正的讨论，什么是某人只想炒作的东西。wallstreetbets 的版主禁止在该平台上操纵市场，Rehl 表示，他们似乎正在努力遏制错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>“索斯尼克说：”如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让一只股票在短时间内上涨 10%、20%，甚至 50%，那么你就有巨大的动力去做这件事。</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>美国证券交易委员会正在关注留言板上的有趣交易。美国证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒（Gary Gensler）和一些国会议员讨论了改变市场规则，目的是增加保护散户交易者的透明度——尽管如果这些变化减缓交易速度或使交易成本更高，也可能激怒零售人群。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一能遏制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment 行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根 (Dan Egan) 认为，这种势头可能会在 9 月份耗尽。即使是 “猿猴 ”也有责任。“他说：”孩子们开始重返校园；家长们也可以自由地再次上班了。“那是下一次从房间里抽出氧气的时候了。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金引发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪和游戏驿站乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，那么只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注，这几乎肯定是一件好事。许多新零售商表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，这是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授亨德里克-贝森宾德（Hendrik Bessembinder）在2018年发表了一项开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票，亏损的可能性大于赚钱的可能性”。简而言之，挑选单只股票并持有集中投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是对新一波交易感到鼓舞。“贝森宾德说：”我欢迎零售交易的增加，欢迎股票市场成为一个广泛参与的地方。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易远未结束。投资者需要了解的内容。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Meme Stock Trade Is Far From Over. What Investors Need to Know.<blockquote>模因股票交易远未结束。投资者需要了解的内容。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It seemed to be only a matter of time.</p><p><blockquote>这似乎只是时间问题。</blockquote></p><p> When GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?</p><p><blockquote>当游戏驿站（股票代码：GME）、黑莓（BB），甚至百视达的干涸尸体在一月份突然复活时，它们何时会再次坠毁的时间已经在流逝。会是几个小时、几天还是几周？</blockquote></p><p> It has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like&nbsp;Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and&nbsp;Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.</p><p><blockquote>现在已经过去半年了，核心 “备忘录股票 ”的交易价格仍然处于研究这些股票多年的人认为离谱的水平。Clover Health Investments (CLOV) 和 Newegg Commerce (NEGG) 等新名称最近出现在留言板上，它们的股票也随之上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.</p><p><blockquote>数百万散户交易员--长期以来被嘲笑为 “哑巴钱 ”--的集体努力成功地让股市飙升，并迫使反对者投降。</blockquote></p><p> That is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们押注的公司几乎没有表现出业务转型的迹象，也没有表现出足以证明其估值的利润，但情况确实如此。黑莓在最近一个季度烧钱，并警告称其关键的网络安全部门将达到收入指导的低端；消息传出后，该股下跌，但在过去一年中仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> While trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in&nbsp;AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than&nbsp;Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.</p><p><blockquote>虽然大型经纪商的交易量较 2 月份的峰值略有下降，但仍高于疫情爆发前的两到三倍。数量惊人的这种活动发生在散户交易者青睐的股票中。例如，AMC院线控股公司（AMC）6 月份的日均交易额达到 131 亿美元，超过了苹果（AAPL）的 95 亿美元和亚马逊（AMZN）的 103 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Even as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.</p><p><blockquote>即使冠状病毒在美国消退，大多数新交易者表示，他们仍然致力于他们在封锁期间学到的爱好——在一项Betterment调查中，58%的日内交易者表示，他们计划在未来进行更多的交易，只有12%的人计划减少交易。业余疫情面包师已经停止揉捏酸面团面包；交易者只会变得越来越饥饿。</blockquote></p><p> A sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.</p><p><blockquote>持续的熊市会破坏这种食欲，就像互联网泡沫破裂时一样。目前，下跌是持有或买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25a79e71371c165f9a3a5085931fc487\" tg-width=\"979\" tg-height=\"649\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to&nbsp;Barron’s.</p><p><blockquote>“美国海军电子技术员布兰登-卢切克（Brandon Luczek）在给《巴伦周刊》的一封电子邮件中写道：”我看到'逢低买入'的情绪一刻也没有减弱。</blockquote></p><p> The meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.</p><p><blockquote>迷因股票飙升是由散户投资者交易的增加推动的。2020年，在线经纪商以创纪录的速度签约客户，超过1000万人开设了新账户。这一记录几乎肯定会在2021年被打破。一些顶级公司透露，在今年不到一半的时间里，经纪商已经增加了超过 1000 万个账户。</blockquote></p><p> Meme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent&nbsp;Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.</p><p><blockquote>模因股票既是这种现象的推车，也是马。他们的价格突然飙升是由新投资者推动的，然后这一行动推动更多的新人投资。数百万人在 1 月底和 2 月初下载了投资应用程序，只是为了享受乐趣。嘉信理财（SCHW）最近的一项调查发现，15%的现有交易者在2020年后开始投资。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/167386c6881a258922ad62caaf7a05f4\" tg-width=\"971\" tg-height=\"644\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e29e3041b91070252ab9063d1a11fa2\" tg-width=\"975\" tg-height=\"642\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9cc1c0bd6368721c0eca87e25719f16\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"641\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.</p><p><blockquote>激增中最突出的参与者是 Robinhood，该公司表示仅在第一季度就增加了 550 万个资金账户。但它并不孤单。例如，富达宣布，第一季度吸引了 160 万 35 岁以下的新客户，比去年同期增长了 223%。</blockquote></p><p> Under pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.</p><p><blockquote>在 Robinhood 零佣金模式的压力下，所有主要经纪商都在 2019 年将佣金降至零。这为新客户群体打开了闸门——他们可能没有那么多闲置现金进行交易，但比前辈更加活跃和多样化。经纪人正在套现。富达希望在投资者获得驾照之前就吸引他们，允许年仅 13 岁的儿童开设交易账户。Robinhood 正在乘势而上进行首次公开募股，分析师预计其估值将超过其收入的 10 倍。</blockquote></p><p> These new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”</p><p><blockquote>这些新客户的行为与他们的老同行不同。E*Trade 交易主管克里斯-拉金（Chris Larkin）说，多年来，“ETF 一直备受青睐”，E*Trade 现归摩根士丹利（MS）所有。但挑选个股显然是 “2021 年的大新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，随着世界各地的投资者押注疫情复苏并避免疲软的债券收益率，股票交易所交易基金仍然表现良好。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.</p><p><blockquote>但 ETF 不像股票那样点亮留言板。这并不是说顶级公司的单行道。游戏驿站二月份确实下跌，华尔街享受了幸灾乐祸的时刻。它并没有持续多久。</blockquote></p><p> “Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.</p><p><blockquote>“盈透证券（Interactive Brokers）首席策略师史蒂夫-索斯尼克（Steve Sosnick）写道：”就像蝉一样，备忘录交易者在表面上隐匿了几个月后又重新活跃起来。索斯尼克认为，模因股票的交易往往与加密货币相反，因为随着势头的变化，它们的粉丝会从一种货币转向另一种货币。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“他写道：”我不认为，在比特币和其他加密货币大幅回调后，备忘录股票卷土重来完全是巧合。</blockquote></p><p> Sosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.</p><p><blockquote>索斯尼克认为备忘录股票是一个 “独立的板块”，他在电脑显示器上将其与其他股票代码分开。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，华尔街对备忘录股票革命的反应一直是孤立专业人士认为不理性的市场部分。大多数卖空者不会碰这些股票，分析师也在放弃报道。</blockquote></p><p> But Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.</p><p><blockquote>但华尔街不能像蝉一样把零售大军赶走，也不能指望它们在未来 17 年内消失。股票交易已经发生了永久性的变化。今年，零售活动占股本量的 24%，高于 2019 年的 15%。新信条的追随者不是愿意让华尔街管理市场的被动观察者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/710e642d3b685b74f8c9dcaf46ef3e0b\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"643\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> “What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”</p><p><blockquote>“哥伦比亚法学院（Columbia Law School）专门研究证券市场的教授约书亚-米茨（Joshua Mitts）说：”这实际上反映了我们所看到的趋势的逆转，即与个别公司的接触越来越少。“技术正在拉近普通投资者与他或她所投资的公司的距离，而这只是以新的、不可预测的形式出现。”</blockquote></p><p> The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.</p><p><blockquote>你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> — Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube</p><p><blockquote>— Matt Kohrs，26 岁，每天在 YouTube 上直播股票分析</blockquote></p><p> It is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.</p><p><blockquote>它现在正在改变那些早早加入的人的生活，并且仍然在更高的名字上。</blockquote></p><p> Take Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming&nbsp;stock analysis on YouTube&nbsp;for seven hours a day.</p><p><blockquote>以马特·科尔斯为例，他很早就投资了AMC院线。今年2月，他辞去了纽约程序员的工作，搬到了费城，并开始在YouTube上每天7个小时直播股票分析。</blockquote></p><p> With 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.</p><p><blockquote>YouTube 拥有 35 万粉丝，它正在支付账单。科尔斯说，凭借广告和股票的收入，他可以拿到与以前大致相同的工资。但他也知道，像这样依赖股票收益与朝九晚五的工作完全不同。</blockquote></p><p> “The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”你得到的秋千肯定会让你有某种感觉。</blockquote></p><p> Companies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.</p><p><blockquote>公司也开始做出更积极的反应。他们要么拥抱他们的新主人，要么付钱给迷因学家来理解新华尔街充满表情符号的语言，这样他们就可以阻止他们或安抚他们。</blockquote></p><p> AMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>AMC 甚至在上周取消了一项拟议的股权融资，因为该公司显然不喜欢 Reddit 人群的反响。过去一年，AMC 的股票数量已经增加了五倍。首席执行官亚当-阿伦（Adam Aron）在推特上表示，他看到了 “许多人赞成，许多人反对 ”对他增发 2500 万股股票的提议的反应，因此该提议将被取消，而不是在本月晚些时候的 AMC 年会上进行表决。该公司没有回答有关如何调查股东的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Forget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.</p><p><blockquote>忘了会议室吧。公司政策现在正在聊天室里决定。</blockquote></p><p> Big investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.</p><p><blockquote>大投资者正在花费更多时间跟踪社交媒体上有关股票的讨论。美国银行在今年的一项调查中发现，大约25%的机构已经在跟踪社交媒体情绪，但大约40%的机构有兴趣在未来使用它。</blockquote></p><p> In the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的几个月里，美国银行、摩根士丹利和摩根大通都发布了关于如何围绕零售行动进行交易的报告，得出了有些不同的结论。</blockquote></p><p> There can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.</p><p><blockquote>正如摩根士丹利所说，信号中可能存在 “阿尔法”，但要实现这一目标可能需要一些紧张的数字运算。当然，并不是所有的留言板聊天都会导致价格持续上涨，如果没有大量的数据分析，零售订单流很难与机构流分开。对于拥有工具来确定散户投资者正在购买哪些股票和正在出售哪些股票的投资者来说，摩根大通建议做多买入兴趣最高的 20% 的股票，做空卖出兴趣最高的 20% 的股票。</blockquote></p><p> For now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>提供跟踪社交媒体情绪产品的另类数据公司Thinknum的鲍里斯·斯皮瓦克(Boris Spiwak)表示，目前，许多购买社交媒体情绪数据的机构似乎都在试图降低风险，而不是寻找新的机会。“他说：”他们认为这几乎就像一份保险，以限制他们的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.</p><p><blockquote>对于零售商来说，这种方法并不总是科学的。这一行动是由社区精神支撑的。其背后的力量既是情感上的，也是道德上的，也是经济上的。</blockquote></p><p> New investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>新投资者表示，他们的动机是希望证明自己，并像利润一样惩罚保守派。他们互相学习市场，有时会放大或揭穿关于华尔街的阴谋论。一些人将模因股票运动与2008年金融危机引发的对大型金融机构的持续不信任联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”</p><p><blockquote>“26 岁的科尔斯说：”华尔街让我们的经济陷入困境，但没有人因此惹上麻烦。“所以，我认为他们认为我们不仅可以赚钱，还可以让华尔街的这些对冲基金付钱。”</blockquote></p><p> Claire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”</p><p><blockquote>克莱尔·赫希伯格 (Claire Hirschberg) 是一名 28 岁的工会组织者，她在 1 月份从朋友那里听说 Robinhood 上购买了价值约 50 美元的游戏驿站股票。她喜欢这个想法，但真正让她兴奋的是她父亲的反应，他是一名长期的资金经理。“她笑着说：”他很生气我买了游戏驿站，还不肯卖。“这让我想永远拿着它。”</blockquote></p><p> Just like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.</p><p><blockquote>就像老华尔街有仪式和准则一样，新华尔街也有。一位新的投资银行员工很快就会知道，在你成为合伙人之前，你不会打菲拉格慕领带。在总经理离开之前，你从不离开办公室，你也不会抱怨工作时间。坏人是监管者和参议员伊丽莎白·沃伦，而且不是按顺序。</blockquote></p><p> The new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.</p><p><blockquote>新的交易台——数百万散户交易者现在使用的应用程序和他们聚集的留言板——也有潜规则。公开承认财务损失是一种勇敢的行为，是内部坚韧和对本集团信念的证明。你不把自己当回事，也不规范语言。你是 “猿类 ”或 “弱智 ”大军的一员。你坚持住，即使这意味着你可能会失去一切。坏人依次是卖空者、做市商和华尔街精英。</blockquote></p><p> The group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.</p><p><blockquote>集体行动不仅仅是为了精神支持。交易策略取决于人们保持买入压力，迫使做空，或买入看涨期权，从而引发所谓的伽马挤压。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75d79c78a14cc8f297e17397cc54bdb5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"840\"><span>Keith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>基思·吉尔 (Keith Gill) 在二月份众议院金融服务委员会听证会上虚拟露面，成为 Reddit 散户交易员大军推高游戏驿站股价的代言人。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Many short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.</p><p><blockquote>许多卖空者表示，他们不会再碰这些股票了。但显然，其他人并没有采纳这一建议，而是通过反复做空股票来给备忘录运动注入氧气。6 月中旬，AMC 的空头权益占该股流通量的 17%，低于 1 月份的 28%，但降幅不大。</blockquote></p><p> As the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”</p><p><blockquote>随着价格上涨，空头们也控制不住自己。多年来一直关注游戏驿站的韦德布什证券分析师迈克尔-帕切特（Michael Pachter）说，他们开始 “流口水，耳朵里冒出火焰”。“他说：”让我感到震惊的是精神错乱的定义，就是一遍又一遍地做同样的事情，每次都希望有不同的结果，而空头却不断出现。“[游戏驿站公牛]基思-吉尔（Keith Gill）和他的 Reddit raiders 一直在挤压他们，而且一直在起作用。”</blockquote></p><p> To beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath &amp; Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.</p><p><blockquote>为了击败卖空者，Reddit 人群需要团结起来，但该社区有时会出现裂缝。拥有最坚定粉丝群的两只模因股票——游戏驿站和 AMC——仍然拥有庞大的核心信徒大军，他们似乎不容易动摇。但其他名字似乎有更善变的支持者。几只陷入迷因疯狂的股票已经崩溃。 Bed Bath &amp; Beyond (BBBY) 在 1 月底和 6 月初两次飙升，但现在的交易价格仅略高于 1 月中旬的水平。在上涨期间买入的人已经赔钱了。</blockquote></p><p> Distrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.</p><p><blockquote>不信任已经蔓延，一些交易员担心 wallstreetbets——激发游戏驿站狂热的最初 Reddit 留言板——发展如此之快，以至于它已经失去了最初的精神，并可能变得容易受到操纵。有些人搬到了其他留言板，如 r/superstonk，希望能重现老社区的风味。</blockquote></p><p> Travis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.</p><p><blockquote>社交媒体跟踪公司 Hype Equity 的创始人特拉维斯·雷尔 (Travis Rehl) 表示，他试图将可能的操纵者与更有机的投资者情绪区分开来。他说，炒作股权通常由代表网上谈论的公司的公关公司雇佣。现在，他看到了一种不断增长的趋势，即股票突然出现在留言板上，收到积极的聊天，然后消失。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from&nbsp;Barron’s&nbsp;for comment.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”这让人怀疑什么是真正的讨论，什么是某人只想炒作的东西。wallstreetbets 的版主禁止在该平台上操纵市场，Rehl 表示，他们似乎正在努力遏制错误信息。主持人没有回应《巴伦周刊》的置评请求。</blockquote></p><p> “If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.</p><p><blockquote>“索斯尼克说：”如果你能制造足够的轰动效应，让一只股票在短时间内上涨 10%、20%，甚至 50%，那么你就有巨大的动力去做这件事。</blockquote></p><p> The Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.</p><p><blockquote>美国证券交易委员会正在关注留言板上的有趣交易。美国证券交易委员会主席加里·詹斯勒（Gary Gensler）和一些国会议员讨论了改变市场规则，目的是增加保护散户交易者的透明度——尽管如果这些变化减缓交易速度或使交易成本更高，也可能激怒零售人群。</blockquote></p><p> Regulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”</p><p><blockquote>监管并不是唯一能遏制这一趋势的因素。fintech Betterment 行为金融和投资副总裁丹·伊根 (Dan Egan) 认为，这种势头可能会在 9 月份耗尽。即使是 “猿猴 ”也有责任。“他说：”孩子们开始重返校园；家长们也可以自由地再次上班了。“那是下一次从房间里抽出氧气的时候了。”</blockquote></p><p> Traditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.</p><p><blockquote>传统投资者可能会倾向于将整个现象视为由封锁和免费政府资金引发的暂时疯狂。但那将是一个错误。如果零佣金经纪和游戏驿站乐趣打破了数百万新投资者开户的障碍，那么只要大多数人用他们并不立即需要的钱下注，这几乎肯定是一件好事。许多新零售商表示，他们正在自学如何交易，并开始分散持股。</blockquote></p><p> In one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，这是华尔街未来的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Arizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking&nbsp;research&nbsp;in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.</p><p><blockquote>亚利桑那州立大学教授亨德里克-贝森宾德（Hendrik Bessembinder）在2018年发表了一项开创性的研究，发现“在随机选择的月份随机选择的股票，亏损的可能性大于赚钱的可能性”。简而言之，挑选单只股票并持有集中投资组合往往是一种失败的策略。</blockquote></p><p> Even so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”</p><p><blockquote>即便如此，他还是对新一波交易感到鼓舞。“贝森宾德说：”我欢迎零售交易的增加，欢迎股票市场成为一个广泛参与的地方。“经济学家不能告诉人们他们不应该找点乐子”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","SCHW":"嘉信理财","GME":"游戏驿站","CARV":"卡弗储蓄","AMC":"AMC院线","BBBY":"Bed Bath & Beyond, Inc.","WKHS":"Workhorse Group, Inc.","NEGG":"Newegg Comm Inc.","BB":"黑莓"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-meme-stock-trade-is-far-from-over-what-investors-need-to-know-51625875247?mod=hp_HERO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112201050","content_text":"It seemed to be only a matter of time.\nWhen GameStop (ticker: GME), BlackBerry (BB), and even the desiccated carcass of Blockbuster suddenly sprang to life in January, the clock was already ticking for when they would crash again. Would it be hours, days, or weeks?\nIt has now been half a year, and the core “meme stocks” are still trading at levels considered outrageous by people who have studied them for years. New names like Clover Health Investments(CLOV) and Newegg Commerce(NEGG) have recently popped up on message boards, and their stocks have popped, too.\nThe collective efforts of millions of retail traders—long derided as “the dumb money”—have successfully held stocks aloft and forced naysayers to capitulate.\nThat is true even as the companies they are betting on have shown scant signs of transforming their businesses, or turning profits that might justify their valuations. BlackBerry burned cash in its latest quarter and warned that its key cybersecurity division would hit the low end of its revenue guidance; the stock dipped on the news but has still more than doubled in the past year.\nWhile trading volume at the big brokers has come down slightly from its February peak, it remains two to three times as high as it was before the pandemic. And a startling amount of that activity is occurring in stocks favored by retail traders. The average daily value of shares traded in AMC Entertainment Holdings(AMC), for example, reached $13.1 billion in June, more than Apple’s(AAPL) $9.5 billion and Amazon.com’s (AMZN) $10.3 billion.\nEven as the coronavirus fades in the U.S., most new traders say they are committed to the hobby they learned during lockdown—58% of day traders in a Betterment survey said they are planning to trade even more in the future, and only 12% plan to trade less. Amateur pandemic bakers have stopped kneading sourdough loaves; traders are only getting hungrier.\nA sustained bear market would spoil such an appetite, as it did when the dot-com bubble burst. For now, dips are reasons to hold or buy.\n\n“I’ve seen that the ‘buy the dip’ sentiment hasn’t relented for a moment,” wrote Brandon Luczek, an electronics technician for the U.S. Navy who trades with friends online, in an email to Barron’s.\nThe meme stock surge has been propelled by a rise in trading by retail investors. In 2020, online brokers signed clients at a record pace, with more than 10 million people opening new accounts. That record will almost certainly be broken in 2021. Brokers had already added more than 10 million accounts less than halfway into the year, some of the top firms have disclosed.\nMeme stocks are both the cart and the horse of this phenomenon. Their sudden price spikes are driven by new investors, and then that action drives even more new people to invest. Millions of people downloaded investing apps in late January and early February just to be a part of the fun. A recent Charles Schwab(SCHW) survey found that 15% of all current traders began investing after 2020.\n\nThe most prominent player in the surge is Robinhood, which said it had added 5.5 million funded accounts in the first quarter alone. But it isn’t alone. Fidelity, for instance, announced that it had attracted 1.6 million new customers under the age of 35 in the first quarter, 223% more than a year before.\nUnder pressure from Robinhood’s zero-commission model, all of the major brokers cut commissions to zero in 2019. That opened the floodgates to a new group of customers—one that may not have as much spare cash to trade but is more active and diverse than its predecessors. And the brokers are cashing in. Fidelity is hoping to attract investors before they even have driver’s licenses, allowing children as young as 13 to open trading accounts. Robinhood is riding the momentum to an initial public offering that analysts expect to value it at more than 10 times its revenue.\nThese new customers act differently than their older peers. For years, there was a “big gravitation toward ETFs,” says Chris Larkin, head of trading at E*Trade, which is now owned by Morgan Stanley (MS). But picking single stocks is clearly “the big story of 2021.”\nTo be sure, equity exchange-traded funds are still doing well, as investors around the world bet on the pandemic recovery and avoid weak bond yields.\nBut ETFs don’t light up the message boards like stocks do. Not that it has been a one-way ride for the top names. GameStop did dip in February, and Wall Street enjoyed a moment of schadenfreude. It didn’t last.\n“Like cicadas, meme traders returned in a wild blaze of activity after being seemingly underground for several months,” wrote Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers. Sosnick believes that the meme stocks tend to trade inversely to cryptocurrencies, because their fans rotate from one to the other as the momentum shifts.\n“I don’t think it’s strictly a coincidence that meme stocks roared back to life after a significant correction in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies,” he wrote.\nSosnick considers meme stocks a “sector unto themselves,” one that he segregates on his computer monitor away from other stock tickers.\nIndeed, Wall Street’s reaction to the meme stock revolution has been to isolate the parts of the market that the pros deem irrational. Most short sellers won’t touch the stocks, and analysts are dropping coverage.\nBut Wall Street can’t swat the retail army away like cicadas, or count on them disappearing for the next 17 years. Stock trading has permanently shifted. This year, retail activity accounts for 24% of equity volume, up from 15% in 2019. Adherents to the new creed are not passive observers willing to let Wall Street manage the markets.\n\n“What this really reflects is a reversal of the trends that we saw toward less and less engagement with individual companies,” says Joshua Mitts, a professor at Columbia Law School specializing in securities markets. “Technology is bringing the average investor closer to the companies in which he or she invests, and that’s just taking on new and unpredictable forms.”\nThe swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way.\n— Matt Kohrs, 26, who streams stock analysis daily on YouTube\nIt is now changing the lives of those who got in early and are still riding the names higher.\nTake Matt Kohrs, who had invested in AMC Entertainment early. He quit his job as a programmer in New York in February, moved to Philadelphia, and started streaming stock analysis on YouTube for seven hours a day.\nWith 350,000 YouTube followers, it’s paying the bills. With his earnings from ads and from the stock, Kohrs says he can pull down roughly the same salary he made before. But he also knows that relying on earnings from stocks like this is nothing like a 9-to-5 job.\n“The swings you get can definitely make you feel some sort of way,” he says.\nCompanies are starting to react more aggressively, too. They are either embracing their new owners or paying meme-ologists to understand the emoji-filled language of the new Wall Street so they can ward them off or appease them.\nAMC even canceled a proposed equity raise this past week because the company apparently didn’t like the vibes it was getting from the Reddit crowd. AMC has already quintupled its share count over the past year. CEO Adam Aron tweeted that he had seen “many yes, many no” reactions to his proposal to issue 25 million more shares, so it will be canceled instead of being presented for a vote at AMC’s annual meeting later this month. The company did not respond to a question on how it had polled shareholders.\nForget the boardroom. Corporate policy is now being determined in the chat room.\nBig investors are spending more time tracking social-media discussions about stocks. Bank of America found in a survey this year that about 25% of institutions had already been tracking social-media sentiment, but that about 40% are interested in using it going forward.\nIn the past few months, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and J.P. Morgan have all produced reports on how to trade around the retail action, coming to somewhat different conclusions.\nThere can be “alpha in the signal,” as Morgan Stanley put it, but it can take some intense number-crunching to get there. Not all message-board chatter leads to sustained price gains, of course, and retail order flow cannot easily be separated from institutional flow without substantial data analysis. For investors with the tools to pinpoint which stocks retail investors are buying and which they are selling, J.P. Morgan suggests going long on the 20% of stocks with the most buying interest and short on the top 20% in selling interest.\nFor now, many of the institutions buying data on social-media sentiment appear to be trying to reduce their risks, as opposed to scouting new opportunities, according to Boris Spiwak of alternative data firm Thinknum, which offers products that track social-media sentiment. “They see it as almost like an insurance policy, to limit their downside risks,” he says.\nFor retail traders, the method isn’t always scientific. The action is sustained by a community ethos. And the force behind it is as much emotional and moral as financial.\nNew investors say they are motivated by a desire to prove themselves and punish the old guard as much as by profits. They learn from one another about the market, sometimes amplifying or debunking conspiracy theories about Wall Street. Some link the meme-stock movement to continued mistrust of big financial institutions stemming from the 2008 financial crisis.\n“Wall Street brought our economy to its knees, and no one ever got in trouble for it,” says the 26-year-old Kohrs. “So, I think they view this as not only can we make money, but we can also make these hedge funds on Wall Street pay.”\nClaire Hirschberg is a 28-year-old union organizer who bought about $50 worth of GameStop stock on Robinhood in January after hearing about it from friends. She liked the idea, but what really got her excited about it was the reaction of her father, a longtime money manager. “He was so mad I had bought GameStop and was refusing to sell,” she says, laughing. “And that just makes me want to hold it forever.”\nJust like old Wall Street has rituals and codes, the new one does, too. A new investment banking employee learns quickly that you don’t wear a Ferragamo tie until after you make associate. You never leave the office until the managing director does, and you don’t complain about the hours. And the bad guys are the regulators and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and not in that order.\nThe new trading desk—the apps that millions of retail traders now use and the message boards where they congregate—have unspoken rules, too. Publicly acknowledging financial losses is a valiant act, evidence of internal fortitude and belief in the group. You don’t take yourself seriously and you don’t police language. You are part of an army of “apes” or “retards.” You hold through the crashes, even if it means you might lose everything. And the bad guys are the short sellers, the market makers, and the Wall Street elites, in that order.\nThe group action is not just for moral support. The trading strategy depends on people keeping up the buying pressure to force a short squeeze or to buy bullish options that trigger what’s known as a gamma squeeze.\nKeith Gill became the face of the Reddit army of retail traders pushing shares of GameStop higher when he appeared virtually before a House Financial Services Committee hearing in February.\nMany short sellers say they won’t touch these stocks anymore. But clearly, others aren’t taking that advice and are giving the meme movement oxygen by repeatedly betting against the stocks. AMC’s short interest was at 17% of the stock’s float in mid-June, down from 28% in January, but not by much.\nAs the price rises, the shorts can’t help themselves. They start “drooling, with flames coming out of their ears,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst who has covered GameStop for years. “What’s kind of shocked me is the definition of insanity, which is doing the same thing over and over and over again and hoping for a different outcome each time, and the shorts keep coming back,” he says. “And [GameStop bull] Keith Gill and his Reddit raiders keep squeezing them, and it keeps working.”\nTo beat the short sellers, the Reddit crowd needs to hold together, but the community has been showing cracks at times. The two meme stocks with the most determined fan bases—GameStop and AMC—still have enormous armies of core believers who do not seem easily swayed. But other names seem to have more-fickle backers. Several stocks caught up in the meme madness have come crashing down to earth.Bed Bath & Beyond(BBBY) spiked twice—in late January and early June—but now trades only slightly above its mid-January levels. People who bought during the upswings have lost money.\nDistrust has spread, and some traders worry that wallstreetbets— the original Reddit message board that inspired the GameStop frenzy—has grown so fast that it has lost its original spirit, and potentially grown vulnerable to manipulation. Some have moved to other message boards, like r/superstonk, in hopes of reclaiming the old community’s flavor.\nTravis Rehl, the founder of social-media tracking company Hype Equity, says that he tries to separate possible manipulators from more organic investor sentiment. Hype Equity is usually hired by public-relations firms representing companies that are being talked about online, he says. Now, he sees a growing trend of stocks that suddenly come up on message boards, receive positive chatter, and then disappear.\n“It’s called into question what is a true discussion versus what is something that somebody just wants to pump,” he says. The moderators of wallstreetbets forbid market manipulation on the platform, and Rehl say they appear to work hard to police misinformation. The moderators did not respond to a request from Barron’s for comment.\n“If you can create enough buzz to get a stock that goes up 10%, 20%, even 50% in a short period of time, there’s a tremendous incentive to do that,” Sosnick says.\nThe Securities and Exchange Commission is watching for funny business on the message boards. SEC Chairman Gary Gensler and some members of Congress have discussed changing market rules with the intention of adding transparency protecting retail traders—although changes could also anger the retail crowd if they slow down trading or make it more expensive.\nRegulations aren’t the only thing that could deflate this trend. Dan Egan, vice president of behavioral finance and investing at fintech Betterment, thinks the momentum may run out of steam in September. Even “apes” have responsibilities. “Kids start going back to schools; parents are free to go to work again,” he says. “That’s the next time there’s going to be some oxygen pulled out of the room.”\nTraditional investors may be tempted to write off the entire phenomenon as temporary madness inspired by lockdowns and free government money. But that would be a mistake. If zero-commission brokerages and fun with GameStop broke down barriers for millions of new investors to open accounts, it’s almost certainly a good thing, as long as most people bet with money they don’t need immediately. Many new retail traders say they are teaching themselves how to trade, and have begun to diversify their holdings.\nIn one form or another, this is the future client base of Wall Street.\nArizona State University professor Hendrik Bessembinder published groundbreaking research in 2018 that found that “a randomly selected stock in a randomly selected month is more likely to lose money than make money.” In short, picking single stocks and holding a concentrated portfolio tends to be a losing strategy.\nEven so, he’s encouraged by the new wave of trading. “I welcome the increase in retail trading, the idea of the stock market being a place with wide participation,” Bessembinder says. “Economists can’t tell people they shouldn’t get some fun.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CARV":0.9,"BBBY":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"WKHS":0.9,"GME":0.9,"CLOV":0.9,"NEGG":0.9,"MRIN":0.9,"BB":0.9,"SCHW":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}