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跟你们一起

跟你们一起

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跟你们一起

2021-07-28

$淘屏(TAOP)$卧槽，又要破四了吗？一夜之间，扭转乾坤

跟你们一起

2022-01-19

$Meta Platforms(FB)$除了概念，还是要拿出点真材实料才能被市场认可啊

跟你们一起

2021-11-12

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$还会不会涨呢

跟你们一起

2021-07-28

$淘屏(TAOP)$回落这么快？利好直接在盘前兑现了吗？

跟你们一起

2021-08-24

$耀世星辉(GSMG)$投资最要不得心急，不然会错过很多收益

跟你们一起

2021-08-11

$淘屏(TAOP)$快到七夕了，今晚搞个5.20收盘吧。哈哈哈

跟你们一起

2022-01-20

$Integrated Media Technology Limited(IMTE)$落袋一部分先，持续看好

跟你们一起

2022-01-20

$东方文化(OCG)$$Integrated Media Technology Limited(IMTE)$微跌，可以接受，看好美丽国对NFT的前景

跟你们一起

2021-11-12

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$新能源、国家倡导，坐等吃肉

跟你们一起

2021-09-06

$药明巨诺-B(02126)$牛

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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13:36","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"浑水对阵贝壳，谁的数据更可信？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114524360","media":"财经杂志","summary":"2021年12月16日晚，浑水发布做空报告称，通过抓取贝壳平台交易数据、走访线下门店等方式，发现贝壳夸大2021年二季度、三季度GTV126%，虚报佣金收入77%至96%，虚增门店数至少23%。浑水由此得出结论，贝壳在进行系统性欺诈。17日傍晚，贝壳发布回应声明称，浑水报告存在大量事实错误，他们抓取交易量数据、衡量门店和经纪人数目的方法是错误的，导致数据失实且有遗漏，“显示出浑水对中国房产交易行业缺乏基本认识”。","content":"<div>\n<p>文/张光裕 陈嘉瑶\n过去三天，被称为“中概股狙击手”的做空机构浑水公司，与中国最大的房产交易平台贝壳找房（NYSE:BEKE）激烈交锋。\n2021年12月16日晚，浑水发布做空报告称，通过抓取贝壳平台交易数据、走访线下门店等方式，发现贝壳夸大2021年二季度、三季度GTV（总交易额）126%，虚报佣金收入77%至96%，虚增门店数至少23%。浑水由此得出结论，贝壳在进行系统性欺诈。\n17日傍晚，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cEJQAe8TqeaTsD8wreUUkA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"caijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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陈嘉瑶\n过去三天，被称为“中概股狙击手”的做空机构浑水公司，与中国最大的房产交易平台贝壳找房（NYSE:BEKE）激烈交锋。\n2021年12月16日晚，浑水发布做空报告称，通过抓取贝壳平台交易数据、走访线下门店等方式，发现贝壳夸大2021年二季度、三季度GTV（总交易额）126%，虚报佣金收入77%至96%，虚增门店数至少23%。浑水由此得出结论，贝壳在进行系统性欺诈。\n17日傍晚，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cEJQAe8TqeaTsD8wreUUkA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44565298443969896d61e54e89997278","relate_stocks":{"BEKE":"贝壳"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/cEJQAe8TqeaTsD8wreUUkA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114524360","content_text":"文/张光裕 陈嘉瑶\n过去三天，被称为“中概股狙击手”的做空机构浑水公司，与中国最大的房产交易平台贝壳找房（NYSE:BEKE）激烈交锋。\n2021年12月16日晚，浑水发布做空报告称，通过抓取贝壳平台交易数据、走访线下门店等方式，发现贝壳夸大2021年二季度、三季度GTV（总交易额）126%，虚报佣金收入77%至96%，虚增门店数至少23%。浑水由此得出结论，贝壳在进行系统性欺诈。\n17日傍晚，贝壳发布回应声明称，浑水报告存在大量事实错误，他们抓取交易量数据、衡量门店和经纪人数目的方法是错误的，导致数据失实且有遗漏，“显示出浑水对中国房产交易行业缺乏基本认识”。\n《财经》记者采访中，经纪行业人士大多认同贝壳说法。贝壳的成交量由多个渠道贡献，囿于信息源不全，浑水抓取不到贝壳体系外部的渠道数据，内部渠道数据也不准。而它们通过门店和经纪人数，推断GTV和营收的逻辑思路，也可能站不住脚。\n但浑水的做空报告并非毫无价值。它指出了贝壳长期存在的“鬼店”“克隆店”问题，这导致了贝壳店面统计误差。\n17日，在贝壳发布回应声明当天，贝壳股价上涨了5.7%，收于19.36美元/股。浑水的做空和贝壳的反击，究竟谁的数据更有理，目前来看，资本市场选择了后者。\n浑水的统计漏洞在哪里？\n在做空报告附录中，浑水介绍了抓取交易数据的方法。\n它们从贝壳平台“找经纪人”端口进入，看到经纪人所在门店，再统计各门店的成交记录，由此得到交易量。因为贝壳平台只展示近76天的成交记录，所以浑水对二季度、三季度的统计范围也均为76天，再按比例换算成完整季度。\n成交价的统计则分为新房与二手房。浑水称，由于按中国房地产业协会数据，近两年新房单价几乎保持不变，所以它们使用了贝壳2020年报披露的成交均价来对新房成交价进行估算。\n至于二手房，有62%的城市在贝壳平台上可获取成交价，浑水直接抓取。其余城市，浑水根据中国房地产业协会数据，选择特征相近的城市作为参考，按照两城市价格比例关系估算成交价。值得注意的是，北京、深圳的二手房交易价均为估算得到。\n用成交量乘以成交均价，便得到GTV。\n针对浑水的统计方法，贝壳回应道，公司新房交易的通路有四条：链家门店、贝壳平台连接的门店、新房销售团队、其他销售渠道（外渠）。而浑水只计算了前两种方式。\n在贝壳集团内，更常将以上通路分为“内渠”（链家及贝壳平台连接门店）、“新房直销”和“外渠”。\n一位贝壳前运营人士告诉《财经》记者，贝壳是在2020年下半年成立了专门的新房直销团队。这些经纪人按市内的商圈划定片区，日常是驻守在各个楼盘售楼处，没有对应至某个门店。\n在比较成熟的商圈，团队会在写字楼里租个办公室，供开会、办手续时使用。在郊区等新开发商圈，条件就更艰苦些，没有办公室，所有工作都是在售楼大厅完成。\n而且据贝壳声明，这些新房专岗经纪人无法在App首页“找经纪人”功能找到，而要到 “新房”频道的子页面里寻找。\n因此，浑水顺着经纪人找门店的方法，统计不到新房直销团队的成交量。当然，除新房直销外，内渠门店也卖新房，浑水只统计了这一部分。\n再来看外渠。所谓“外渠”，是指与贝壳有合作关系，但不从属于贝壳体系的外部中介公司。这些公司既能使用贝壳端口成单，也可以使用其他平台的端口。\n上述前运营人士解释，贝壳不会把外渠展示在对客平台“贝壳找房”页面上，它们一般要自己想办法获客。外渠们都是通过贝壳内部一套叫作“link”的系统完成签单上报、结转佣金等作业环节，相关流程不对外展示。\n一家与贝壳合作的外渠机构负责人告诉记者，对贝壳而言，这一业务的本质是To B，而非To C的，“外渠整体的数据只有贝壳知道”。\n《财经》记者了解到，除遗漏“新房直销”和“外渠”外，浑水对内渠的统计数据准确性也存疑。\n贝壳对自己的数据，有线上线下两条统计路径，两套数据并不总是一致的。内渠成交的客单，也不是百分百完全录在了线上。这里面主客观原因都有。\n主观上，除了一时的怠惰，一些门店和经纪人会通过调节录入节奏，来保障完成绩效考核。比如已经完成指标时，就先不急于把成单上线，留一些“存货”，等到业绩发愁的时候拿来找补。\n还有各种客观原因导致已经成交的单子无法录入。比如在新房业务上，如果开发商和贝壳在佣金支付、或者这一单究竟是贝壳卖的，还是开发商自己卖的存在争议时，那按贝壳规则，这一单就不能在线上录为“承销”,必须等争议解决后才可以。\n另外，财务端和运营端掌握的数据也可能不一致。比如已经卖出的房子，买家退单了；或者与开发商合作上，因为业绩好，中途佣金跳点上涨。对于这些变化，财务运营两个端口的统计可能一前一后，有时间差。\n贝壳自己能周期性地用线上、线下两套数据相互校准。但浑水只能抓取到两段各76天运营端的线上数据，很难保障准确性。\n浑水对二手房的价格估算，使用了中房协披露的数据，尤其是用这个办法估算了链家大本营北京的价格。这可能与真实情况有较大出入。有链家经纪人告诉《财经》记者，自二手房指导价政策出台后，平台上展示的房源有所保留。一些高价房源挂在内网上，买房者可通过经纪人获知这些房源的信息，完成交易。\n虚设门店 贝壳并非无懈可击\n浑水报告中称，它们的数据收集表明，截至2021年二季度末门店总数被夸大了23%。而在线下走访时，他们发现了大量“鬼店”和“克隆店”，因此实际夸大程度可能更高。\n所谓“鬼店”，是指这家店注册在贝壳平台上，但实际已关门停业了。“克隆店”指好几家店注册同一个地址，实际只有一家店。浑水称它们在廊坊走访51家注册的链家店，发现19家是“鬼店”，于是此地门店数量被夸大了59%。\n浑水也质疑贝壳实际经纪人数。报告里提到，贝壳声称在上海有2.1万名经纪人，但它们查询中国国家市场监督管理总局数据发现，贝壳在上海的经纪子公司，员工总数只有9998人。\n针对以上质疑，贝壳回应说浑水信息源不完整，即如上文所述，没有统计到新房专岗经纪人。但并未回应“鬼店”和“克隆店”是怎么回事。\n《财经》记者在采访中了解到，贝壳的“鬼店”和“克隆店”的确存在。贝壳会不定期清理这类店面，但至今仍难以根除。多变是中介行业的特点，不但经纪人离职率、流动率高，门店开张几个月就倒闭也是常事。这些关门的店铺，尤其是平台连接的非链家品牌，一般不会主动在贝壳平台上注销。\n线上注册的经纪人也有同样问题。前贝壳经营人士说，他所在区域今年曾做过一次筛查，发现有5%的人员在职不在岗，即在花名册中状态为“在职”，但其实没有打卡上班。\n他解释说，有些员工岗位有了调动，但没在系统里及时修改，所以没统计到打卡。但也有一部分人，只是在贝壳挂个名，实际已经离开了公司甚至行业。而对于浑水描述的上海的情况，比起市场监管总局的统计，公司实际经纪人的确更多，因为一些经纪人签约的公司，可能并不是贝壳子公司，而是各种各样的外部公司。\n这位运营人士就是在某南方城市为贝壳工作时，劳动合同的甲方被签成了北京一家人力资源公司。\n由此观之，贝壳究竟有多少家店铺，多少名经纪人，也是线上线下两套数据。线上数据很可能不靠谱。贝壳自己要想搞清楚，也要靠在线下花功夫。\n浑水做空报告的一条核心逻辑是，贝壳的门店数、经纪人数，与它的GTV和营收，存在某种正相关的函数关系。如果前者有水分，那贝壳的GTV和营收也势必有水分。\n虽然贝壳的门店和经纪人数的确存疑，但浑水的这条逻辑，受访的经纪行业人士并不赞同。\n因为新房直销和外渠，在贝壳GTV中的占比已经越来越大。前运营人士说，在他所在的某南方省会城市，2020年新房直销和外渠贡献的GTV占比在50%左右。\n但直销团队不增加门店数，外渠的门店和经纪人也不体现在贝壳找房平台的统计中。\n因此，在内渠占比下降的商业模式下，浑水仅靠统计内渠门店和人数，就得出贝壳的GTV和营收有水分站不住脚。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BEKE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3900,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693424927,"gmtCreate":1640067252073,"gmtModify":1640067252073,"author":{"id":"4088066745930590","authorId":"4088066745930590","name":"跟你们一起","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b14e4153134946740161da35a1618b88","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088066745930590","idStr":"4088066745930590"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"浑水搞事，贝壳近日波动不是一般的大。","listText":"浑水搞事，贝壳近日波动不是一般的大。","text":"浑水搞事，贝壳近日波动不是一般的大。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693424927","repostId":"1131335966","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131335966","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640011781,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131335966?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 22:49","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"热门中概股整体走弱，贝壳跌超8%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131335966","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"12月20日，热门中概股整体走弱，$贝壳(BEKE)$跌超8%，$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$跌超7%，$爱奇艺(IQ)$跌超6%，$拼多多(PDD)$跌近6%，$阿里巴巴(BABA)$、滴滴跌超5%","content":"<p>12月20日，热门中概股整体走弱，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>跌超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>跌近6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、滴滴跌超5%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e8ba89a9ea6c7f9418adc19328600d5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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22:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>12月20日，热门中概股整体走弱，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>跌超6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>跌近6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>、滴滴跌超5%</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e8ba89a9ea6c7f9418adc19328600d5\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" 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