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Sherminxm
2021-12-09
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2021-08-04
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Sherminxm
2021-07-09
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Sherminxm
2021-07-22
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Sherminxm
2021-07-13
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2021-08-03
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2021-07-08
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2021-07-08
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2021-07-06
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2021-07-31
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16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should <i>continue</i> to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li> <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li> <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li> <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should <i>continue</i> to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul> <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li> <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li> <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li> <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2002,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144457341,"gmtCreate":1626311685383,"gmtModify":1631889248542,"author":{"id":"4088434082181330","authorId":"4088434082181330","name":"Sherminxm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48bc204d5fc6b3e0603c2faf13a5f90","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088434082181330","authorIdStr":"4088434082181330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5DD.SI\">$MICRO-MECHANICS (HOLDINGS) LTD(5DD.SI)$</a>Woooo","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5DD.SI\">$MICRO-MECHANICS (HOLDINGS) LTD(5DD.SI)$</a>Woooo","text":"$MICRO-MECHANICS (HOLDINGS) LTD(5DD.SI)$Woooo","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7baf546e17480383ecbbff681b18b51e","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144457341","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":551,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145276039,"gmtCreate":1626227799721,"gmtModify":1633928833708,"author":{"id":"4088434082181330","authorId":"4088434082181330","name":"Sherminxm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48bc204d5fc6b3e0603c2faf13a5f90","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088434082181330","authorIdStr":"4088434082181330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh wow","listText":"Oh wow","text":"Oh wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145276039","repostId":"1111418784","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1111418784","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626183009,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1111418784?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-13 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Dow retreats slightly from record as hot inflation report overshadows strong earnings<blockquote>由于热门通胀报告盖过强劲盈利，道琼斯指数从创纪录水平小幅回落</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1111418784","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Stocks fell slightly on Tuesday after a hotter-than-expected inflation report overshadowed a strong ","content":"<p>Stocks fell slightly on Tuesday after a hotter-than-expected inflation report overshadowed a strong start to second-quarter earnings season.</p><p><blockquote>高于预期的通胀报告盖过了第二季度财报季的强劲开局，周二股市小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial average shed 20 points, or 0.1%. The measure closed at a record just below 35,000 the day prior. The S&P 500 lost 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite also fell 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌20点，即0.1%。该指标前一天收于略低于35,000点的创纪录水平。标普500下跌0.1%。纳斯达克综合指数也下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation rose at its fastest pace in nearly 13 years,the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The consumer price index increased 5.4% from a year ago; economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected a 5% gain. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, jumped 4.5%, the sharpest move for that measure since September 1991 and well above the estimate of 3.8%.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周二报告称，通货膨胀率以近13年来最快的速度上升。居民消费价格指数同比上涨5.4%；道琼斯调查的经济学家预计将上涨5%。不包括食品和能源的核心CPI上涨4.5%，为1991年9月以来该指标的最大涨幅，远高于3.8%的预期。</blockquote></p><p> \"A white-hot June CPI print has the markets jittery this morning,\" Cliff Hodge, CIO at Cornerstone Wealth, said. \"Moving forward we expect these inflation numbers to begin to cool. June 2020 was the absolute low for Core CPI during the pandemic shutdown, so the comparisons get tougher from here. Used car prices soared 45% year over year which is not likely to persist in coming months.\"</p><p><blockquote>Cornerstone Wealth首席信息官克里夫·霍奇(Cliff Hodge)表示：“今天早上白热化的6月份消费者物价指数(CPI)数据让市场感到紧张。”“展望未来，我们预计这些通胀数据将开始降温。2020年6月是大流行关闭期间核心CPI的绝对低点，因此从这里开始比较变得更加困难。二手车价格同比飙升45%，这不太可能持续在未来几个月。”</blockquote></p><p> The10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged slightly higher following the CPI report.</p><p><blockquote>CPI报告公布后，10年期美国国债收益率小幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The latest inflation data came after big banks and PepsiCo posted blowout second-quarter earnings reports beating Wall Street estimates. But with stocks at record highs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average just shy of 35,000, expectations likely ran higher than the official estimates reflected.</p><p><blockquote>最新的通胀数据发布之前，大银行和百事可乐发布了超出华尔街预期的井喷式第二季度收益报告。但由于股市创历史新高，道琼斯工业平均指数略低于35,000点，预期可能高于官方预期。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan Chase shares dipped in the premarket even after posting second-quarter earningsof $11.9 billion, or $3.78 per share, which exceeded the $3.21 estimate of analysts surveyed by Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通公布第二季度盈利119亿美元，即每股3.78美元，超过了Refinitiv调查的分析师3.21美元的预期，但其股价在盘前仍下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Banks set aside billions of dollars for loan losses amid the pandemic, but have been releasing those reserves as consumers performed better than expected. JPMorgan released $3 billion in loan loss reserves after taking just $734 million in charge-offs. That gave the firm a $2.3 billion benefit, allowing the bank to top earnings expectations. Investors may be giving less credit to JPMorgan's earnings beat due to this loan loss reserve release.</p><p><blockquote>银行为疫情期间的贷款损失预留了数十亿美元，但随着消费者的表现好于预期，银行一直在释放这些准备金。摩根大通在仅冲销7.34亿美元后释放了30亿美元的贷款损失准备金。这给该公司带来了23亿美元的收益，使该银行的盈利超出了预期。由于此次贷款损失准备金的释放，投资者可能会减少对摩根大通盈利超出预期的信任。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs shared edged about 1% higher in premarket trading. The firm reported second-quarter earnings of $15.02 per share, topping analysts' expectation of $10.24 earnings per share. The bank posted its second-best ever quarterly investment banking revenue as a rush of IPOs hit Wall Street last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，高盛股价在盘前交易中小幅上涨约1%。该公司公布第二季度每股收益为15.02美元，高于分析师预期的每股收益10.24美元。随着上季度华尔街IPO热潮席卷，该银行公布了有史以来第二好的季度投资银行收入。</blockquote></p><p> PepsiCo also crushed estimates for its second-quarter earnings and revenue, fueled by returning restaurant demand. The drink and snack giant also raised its forecast. Shares added more than 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>受餐厅需求回升的推动，百事公司第二季度盈利和收入也超出了预期。这家饮料和零食巨头也上调了预测。股价在盘前交易中上涨超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> Overall earnings reports are expected to be stellar for the second quarter over the coming weeks with profit growth estimated at 64% year-over-year for the quarter, according to FactSet. That would be the biggest quarterly profit increase since 2009.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，未来几周第二季度的整体盈利报告预计将非常出色，该季度利润预计同比增长64%。这将是自2009年以来最大的季度利润增幅。</blockquote></p><p> Banks' earnings are expected to more than double for the second quarter, with an estimated 119.5% estimated year-over-year growth rate, according to analysts polled by FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的分析师表示，第二季度银行盈利预计将增长一倍以上，预计同比增长率为119.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In the regular trading session on Monday theDowrose 126.02 points to close just below 35,000. The blue-chip measure is up 14% this year. TheS&P 500andNasdaq Compositegained 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, to record closes.</p><p><blockquote>在周一的常规交易时段，道琼斯指数上涨126.02点，收于略低于35,000点。该蓝筹股指标今年上涨了14%。标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别上涨0.3%和0.2%，创下收盘纪录。</blockquote></p><p> \"High expectations for earnings and each companies' forward guidance will push markets higher or disappointment may create a small pullback in equity markets,\" said Jeff Kilburg, chief investment officer at Sanctuary Wealth. \"Eyes will be on the major banks to set the tone for the next few weeks of earnings.\"</p><p><blockquote>Sanctuary Wealth首席投资官杰夫·基尔伯格(Jeff Kilburg)表示：“对盈利的高预期和每家公司的前瞻性指引将推高市场，否则失望可能会导致股市小幅回调。”“人们将关注主要银行，为未来几周的盈利定下基调。”</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America,Citi group,Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley all ended Monday higher as well. They will report their earnings later in the week.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行、花旗集团、富国银行和摩根士丹利周一也均收高。他们将在本周晚些时候公布收益。</blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powellis scheduled to appearin front of Congress Wednesday and Thursday to provide an update on monetary policy. He has maintained that the Fed's easy policies will remain intact until there's more progress on its employment and inflation goals.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔斯定于周三和周四出席国会，提供货币政策的最新情况。他坚称，在就业和通胀目标取得更多进展之前，美联储的宽松政策将保持不变。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Dow retreats slightly from record as hot inflation report overshadows strong earnings<blockquote>由于热门通胀报告盖过强劲盈利，道琼斯指数从创纪录水平小幅回落</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDow retreats slightly from record as hot inflation report overshadows strong earnings<blockquote>由于热门通胀报告盖过强劲盈利，道琼斯指数从创纪录水平小幅回落</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-13 21:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks fell slightly on Tuesday after a hotter-than-expected inflation report overshadowed a strong start to second-quarter earnings season.</p><p><blockquote>高于预期的通胀报告盖过了第二季度财报季的强劲开局，周二股市小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial average shed 20 points, or 0.1%. The measure closed at a record just below 35,000 the day prior. The S&P 500 lost 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite also fell 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌20点，即0.1%。该指标前一天收于略低于35,000点的创纪录水平。标普500下跌0.1%。纳斯达克综合指数也下跌0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation rose at its fastest pace in nearly 13 years,the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The consumer price index increased 5.4% from a year ago; economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected a 5% gain. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, jumped 4.5%, the sharpest move for that measure since September 1991 and well above the estimate of 3.8%.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周二报告称，通货膨胀率以近13年来最快的速度上升。居民消费价格指数同比上涨5.4%；道琼斯调查的经济学家预计将上涨5%。不包括食品和能源的核心CPI上涨4.5%，为1991年9月以来该指标的最大涨幅，远高于3.8%的预期。</blockquote></p><p> \"A white-hot June CPI print has the markets jittery this morning,\" Cliff Hodge, CIO at Cornerstone Wealth, said. \"Moving forward we expect these inflation numbers to begin to cool. June 2020 was the absolute low for Core CPI during the pandemic shutdown, so the comparisons get tougher from here. Used car prices soared 45% year over year which is not likely to persist in coming months.\"</p><p><blockquote>Cornerstone Wealth首席信息官克里夫·霍奇(Cliff Hodge)表示：“今天早上白热化的6月份消费者物价指数(CPI)数据让市场感到紧张。”“展望未来，我们预计这些通胀数据将开始降温。2020年6月是大流行关闭期间核心CPI的绝对低点，因此从这里开始比较变得更加困难。二手车价格同比飙升45%，这不太可能持续在未来几个月。”</blockquote></p><p> The10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged slightly higher following the CPI report.</p><p><blockquote>CPI报告公布后，10年期美国国债收益率小幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> The latest inflation data came after big banks and PepsiCo posted blowout second-quarter earnings reports beating Wall Street estimates. But with stocks at record highs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average just shy of 35,000, expectations likely ran higher than the official estimates reflected.</p><p><blockquote>最新的通胀数据发布之前，大银行和百事可乐发布了超出华尔街预期的井喷式第二季度收益报告。但由于股市创历史新高，道琼斯工业平均指数略低于35,000点，预期可能高于官方预期。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorgan Chase shares dipped in the premarket even after posting second-quarter earningsof $11.9 billion, or $3.78 per share, which exceeded the $3.21 estimate of analysts surveyed by Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通公布第二季度盈利119亿美元，即每股3.78美元，超过了Refinitiv调查的分析师3.21美元的预期，但其股价在盘前仍下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Banks set aside billions of dollars for loan losses amid the pandemic, but have been releasing those reserves as consumers performed better than expected. JPMorgan released $3 billion in loan loss reserves after taking just $734 million in charge-offs. That gave the firm a $2.3 billion benefit, allowing the bank to top earnings expectations. Investors may be giving less credit to JPMorgan's earnings beat due to this loan loss reserve release.</p><p><blockquote>银行为疫情期间的贷款损失预留了数十亿美元，但随着消费者的表现好于预期，银行一直在释放这些准备金。摩根大通在仅冲销7.34亿美元后释放了30亿美元的贷款损失准备金。这给该公司带来了23亿美元的收益，使该银行的盈利超出了预期。由于此次贷款损失准备金的释放，投资者可能会减少对摩根大通盈利超出预期的信任。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs shared edged about 1% higher in premarket trading. The firm reported second-quarter earnings of $15.02 per share, topping analysts' expectation of $10.24 earnings per share. The bank posted its second-best ever quarterly investment banking revenue as a rush of IPOs hit Wall Street last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，高盛股价在盘前交易中小幅上涨约1%。该公司公布第二季度每股收益为15.02美元，高于分析师预期的每股收益10.24美元。随着上季度华尔街IPO热潮席卷，该银行公布了有史以来第二好的季度投资银行收入。</blockquote></p><p> PepsiCo also crushed estimates for its second-quarter earnings and revenue, fueled by returning restaurant demand. The drink and snack giant also raised its forecast. Shares added more than 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>受餐厅需求回升的推动，百事公司第二季度盈利和收入也超出了预期。这家饮料和零食巨头也上调了预测。股价在盘前交易中上涨超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> Overall earnings reports are expected to be stellar for the second quarter over the coming weeks with profit growth estimated at 64% year-over-year for the quarter, according to FactSet. That would be the biggest quarterly profit increase since 2009.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet的数据显示，未来几周第二季度的整体盈利报告预计将非常出色，该季度利润预计同比增长64%。这将是自2009年以来最大的季度利润增幅。</blockquote></p><p> Banks' earnings are expected to more than double for the second quarter, with an estimated 119.5% estimated year-over-year growth rate, according to analysts polled by FactSet.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的分析师表示，第二季度银行盈利预计将增长一倍以上，预计同比增长率为119.5%。</blockquote></p><p> In the regular trading session on Monday theDowrose 126.02 points to close just below 35,000. The blue-chip measure is up 14% this year. TheS&P 500andNasdaq Compositegained 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, to record closes.</p><p><blockquote>在周一的常规交易时段，道琼斯指数上涨126.02点，收于略低于35,000点。该蓝筹股指标今年上涨了14%。标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克综合指数分别上涨0.3%和0.2%，创下收盘纪录。</blockquote></p><p> \"High expectations for earnings and each companies' forward guidance will push markets higher or disappointment may create a small pullback in equity markets,\" said Jeff Kilburg, chief investment officer at Sanctuary Wealth. \"Eyes will be on the major banks to set the tone for the next few weeks of earnings.\"</p><p><blockquote>Sanctuary Wealth首席投资官杰夫·基尔伯格(Jeff Kilburg)表示：“对盈利的高预期和每家公司的前瞻性指引将推高市场，否则失望可能会导致股市小幅回调。”“人们将关注主要银行，为未来几周的盈利定下基调。”</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America,Citi group,Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley all ended Monday higher as well. They will report their earnings later in the week.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行、花旗集团、富国银行和摩根士丹利周一也均收高。他们将在本周晚些时候公布收益。</blockquote></p><p> Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powellis scheduled to appearin front of Congress Wednesday and Thursday to provide an update on monetary policy. He has maintained that the Fed's easy policies will remain intact until there's more progress on its employment and inflation goals.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔斯定于周三和周四出席国会，提供货币政策的最新情况。他坚称，在就业和通胀目标取得更多进展之前，美联储的宽松政策将保持不变。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1111418784","content_text":"Stocks fell slightly on Tuesday after a hotter-than-expected inflation report overshadowed a strong start to second-quarter earnings season.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial average shed 20 points, or 0.1%. The measure closed at a record just below 35,000 the day prior. The S&P 500 lost 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite also fell 0.1%.\nInflation rose at its fastest pace in nearly 13 years,the Labor Department reported Tuesday. The consumer price index increased 5.4% from a year ago; economists surveyed by Dow Jones expected a 5% gain. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, jumped 4.5%, the sharpest move for that measure since September 1991 and well above the estimate of 3.8%.\n\"A white-hot June CPI print has the markets jittery this morning,\" Cliff Hodge, CIO at Cornerstone Wealth, said. \"Moving forward we expect these inflation numbers to begin to cool. June 2020 was the absolute low for Core CPI during the pandemic shutdown, so the comparisons get tougher from here. Used car prices soared 45% year over year which is not likely to persist in coming months.\"\nThe10-year U.S. Treasury yield edged slightly higher following the CPI report.\nThe latest inflation data came after big banks and PepsiCo posted blowout second-quarter earnings reports beating Wall Street estimates. But with stocks at record highs and the Dow Jones Industrial Average just shy of 35,000, expectations likely ran higher than the official estimates reflected.\nJPMorgan Chase shares dipped in the premarket even after posting second-quarter earningsof $11.9 billion, or $3.78 per share, which exceeded the $3.21 estimate of analysts surveyed by Refinitiv.\nBanks set aside billions of dollars for loan losses amid the pandemic, but have been releasing those reserves as consumers performed better than expected. JPMorgan released $3 billion in loan loss reserves after taking just $734 million in charge-offs. That gave the firm a $2.3 billion benefit, allowing the bank to top earnings expectations. Investors may be giving less credit to JPMorgan's earnings beat due to this loan loss reserve release.\nMeanwhile, Goldman Sachs shared edged about 1% higher in premarket trading. The firm reported second-quarter earnings of $15.02 per share, topping analysts' expectation of $10.24 earnings per share. The bank posted its second-best ever quarterly investment banking revenue as a rush of IPOs hit Wall Street last quarter.\nPepsiCo also crushed estimates for its second-quarter earnings and revenue, fueled by returning restaurant demand. The drink and snack giant also raised its forecast. Shares added more than 1% in premarket trading.\nOverall earnings reports are expected to be stellar for the second quarter over the coming weeks with profit growth estimated at 64% year-over-year for the quarter, according to FactSet. That would be the biggest quarterly profit increase since 2009.\nBanks' earnings are expected to more than double for the second quarter, with an estimated 119.5% estimated year-over-year growth rate, according to analysts polled by FactSet.\nIn the regular trading session on Monday theDowrose 126.02 points to close just below 35,000. The blue-chip measure is up 14% this year. TheS&P 500andNasdaq Compositegained 0.3% and 0.2%, respectively, to record closes.\n\"High expectations for earnings and each companies' forward guidance will push markets higher or disappointment may create a small pullback in equity markets,\" said Jeff Kilburg, chief investment officer at Sanctuary Wealth. \"Eyes will be on the major banks to set the tone for the next few weeks of earnings.\"\nBank of America,Citi group,Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley all ended Monday higher as well. They will report their earnings later in the week.\nFederal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powellis scheduled to appearin front of Congress Wednesday and Thursday to provide an update on monetary policy. He has maintained that the Fed's easy policies will remain intact until there's more progress on its employment and inflation goals.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142201992,"gmtCreate":1626150130516,"gmtModify":1631889248544,"author":{"id":"4088434082181330","authorId":"4088434082181330","name":"Sherminxm","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a48bc204d5fc6b3e0603c2faf13a5f90","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088434082181330","authorIdStr":"4088434082181330"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5DD.SI\">$MICRO-MECHANICS (HOLDINGS) LTD(5DD.SI)$</a> Amazing!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5DD.SI\">$MICRO-MECHANICS (HOLDINGS) LTD(5DD.SI)$</a> Amazing!","text":"$MICRO-MECHANICS (HOLDINGS) LTD(5DD.SI)$ 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15:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons To Stay Bullish On Stocks In The Second Half Of 2021<blockquote>2021年下半年继续看好股票的3个理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192592169","media":"Benzinga","summary":"The SPDR S&P 500 ETF(NYSE:SPY) is now up nearly 95% from its March 2020 lows, and it’s understandabl","content":"<p><div> The SPDR S&P 500 ETF(NYSE:SPY) is now up nearly 95% from its March 2020 lows, and it’s understandable why some investors may be getting a bit uneasy about the big run after the S&P 500 tacked on ...</p><p><blockquote><div>SPDR标普500 ETF（纽约证券交易所代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF）目前较2020年3月的低点上涨了近95%，可以理解为什么一些投资者可能会对标普500加剧后的大幅上涨感到有点不安...</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/21881688/3-reasons-to-stay-bullish-on-stocks-in-the-second-half-of-2021\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/21881688/3-reasons-to-stay-bullish-on-stocks-in-the-second-half-of-2021\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons To Stay Bullish On Stocks In The Second Half Of 2021<blockquote>2021年下半年继续看好股票的3个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons To Stay Bullish On Stocks In The Second Half Of 2021<blockquote>2021年下半年继续看好股票的3个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-08 15:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> The SPDR S&P 500 ETF(NYSE:SPY) is now up nearly 95% from its March 2020 lows, and it’s understandable why some investors may be getting a bit uneasy about the big run after the S&P 500 tacked on ...</p><p><blockquote><div>SPDR标普500 ETF（纽约证券交易所代码：SPDR标普500指数ETF）目前较2020年3月的低点上涨了近95%，可以理解为什么一些投资者可能会对标普500加剧后的大幅上涨感到有点不安...</div></blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/21881688/3-reasons-to-stay-bullish-on-stocks-in-the-second-half-of-2021\">网页链接</a> </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/21881688/3-reasons-to-stay-bullish-on-stocks-in-the-second-half-of-2021\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/21881688/3-reasons-to-stay-bullish-on-stocks-in-the-second-half-of-2021\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/07/21881688/3-reasons-to-stay-bullish-on-stocks-in-the-second-half-of-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192592169","content_text":"The SPDR S&P 500 ETF(NYSE:SPY) is now up nearly 95% from its March 2020 lows, and it’s understandable why some investors may be getting a bit uneasy about the big run after the S&P 500 tacked on another 14.4% gain in the first half of 2021.\nBank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier took a look back at the S&P 500’s historical performance and found at least three reasons history suggests investors should still feel comfortable buying stocks heading into the second half of the year.\n1. Good First-Half Performance A Bullish Second-Half Indicator\nHistorically, when the S&P 500 has an above-average first-half return, it follows up with an above-average second-half return 77% of the time, Suttmeier said.\nThe S&P 500 has averaged a 6.3% second-half return following a strong first-half, well above its 1.7% average second-half return in years with below-average first-half returns. The average peak-to-trough S&P 500 second-half drawdown following above-average first halves is -6.6% compared to an average drawdown of 10% after a below-average first half.\n2. First Year Of Presidential Cycle Bodes Well For Returns\nHistorically, the second half of the first year under a new U.S. president has been underwhelming, generating an average return of just 1%. However, years in which the market performs well in the first half under a new president have produced an average return of 5.9% in the second half of the year.\nFollowing an above average first-half during year one of a presidential cycle, 67% of second-half drawdowns are in the 0% to 5% range and 78% of drawdowns were less than 10%.\n3. Strong First Halves Good News In Bull Markets\nDuring a secular bull market, the S&P 500 has averaged a 9.1% second-half return following an above-average first-half return. In these years, the S&P 500 has generated a positive second-half return 86% of the time. In addition, the S&P has only experienced one historical second-half drawdown of at least 20% in these years, the Crash of 1987.\nBenzinga’s Take:Looking back at market history can help investors keep things in perspective and provide some helpful insight into market tendencies. Unfortunately, past performance is not necessarily indicative of the future, and there are countless variables impacting U.S. markets in the near 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