Robbie30的个人主页 - 老虎社区

Robbie30

Robbie30

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2021-08-22

Like pls [Happy]

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2021-10-10

Yes looking forward to 2022 [Cool]

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2021-11-17

看好$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ [Cool]

@Buy_Sell:🔥【11月16日】新能源车股下跌，热门中概多数下滑，今天买点啥

2021-08-10

Can give me a like pls? [Smile]

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2021-11-20

Can consider $Alibaba(BABA)$ and $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$

@FundMall:If I have $1000, which funds should I buy?

2021-11-12

[Cool]

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2021-10-25

Holding [Cool]

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2021-10-21

Nice

Investing in the Cloud: Consider Cloudflare and Digital Ocean<blockquote>投资云：考虑Cloudflare和Digital Ocean</blockquote>

2021-12-05

[Cry]

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2021-08-25

Yay [Grin]

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2021-08-19

Like pls [Smile]

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2021-12-14

Good read thanks [Great]

PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>

2021-11-15

Cool! [Cool]

5 Stocks To Watch For November 15, 2021<blockquote>2021年11月15日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>

2021-08-21

Good to know

Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>

2021-08-17

Good, can i have a like pls? Thanks [Love you]

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2021-07-22

Wow impressive

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2021-11-23

Yes! Go $Micron Technology(MU)$

@wywy:Micron on the way up. Go Go Micron

2021-11-11

Missed the chance to buy $AMD(AMD)$ when they were lower, Regret haha[Shy]

@llynnnie:AMD Stock Surged to a New High by a Big Deal with Meta

2021-10-17

Wow [Cool]

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2021-10-04

$JUMBO GROUP LIMITED(42R.SI)$Go jumbo!! [Grin]

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>Is it a good time to buy?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">$PayPal(PYPL)$</a>Is it a good time to buy?&nbsp;","text":"$PayPal(PYPL)$Is it a good time to buy?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c700789a2166abbc9c826f9c101ae8c5","width":"750","height":"2441"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690459818","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690427749,"gmtCreate":1639703636709,"gmtModify":1639703636906,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted 🙌🏻","listText":"Noted 🙌🏻","text":"Noted 🙌🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690427749","repostId":"1157750048","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1157750048","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639698910,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157750048?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 07:55","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"昨夜今晨：大型科技股全线下挫！苹果欲开发自研无线芯片","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157750048","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"摘要：①科技股拖累美股收跌，纳指大跌近2.5%；②热门中概股收盘涨跌不一，开心汽车涨超36%；③贝壳股价周四收盘跌近2% 此前遭浑水公司做空；④英国央行在疫情危机爆发以来首次加息，以对抗通胀飙升。\n\n","content":"<blockquote>\n 摘要：①科技股拖累美股收跌，纳指大跌近2.5%；②热门中概股收盘涨跌不一，开心汽车涨超36%；③贝壳股价周四收盘跌近2% 此前遭浑水公司做空；④英国央行在疫情危机爆发以来首次加息，以对抗通胀飙升。\n</blockquote>\n<p>海外市场</p>\n<p>1、科技股拖累美股收跌纳指大跌近2.5%、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>下挫3.9%</p>\n<p>周四(12月16日)，美国股市下滑，大型科技股的疲软拖累了主要股指的表现。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌2.47%，创下9月以来的最大单日跌幅。标准普尔500指数下跌0.87%，道琼斯工业指数跌0.08%。</p>\n<p>周四的交易中，一些大型科技股走势艰难，苹果下跌3.9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>等主要半导体股分别下跌近5.4%和6.8%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>公司的前瞻指导低于分析师预期，该公司股价下跌超过10%。</p>\n<p>2、热门中概股周四收盘涨跌不一 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KXIN\">开心汽车</a>涨超36% <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌近2%</p>\n<p>热门中概股周四收盘涨跌不一，开心汽车涨超36%，此前该公司获超5亿美元新能源卡车订单；贝壳跌近2%，该公司此前遭知名做空机构浑水公司做空。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">趣头条</a>涨超9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UCL\">优克联</a>涨超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STG\">尚德机构</a>涨超6%，人人公司、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">水滴</a>公司、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">猎豹移动</a>涨超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VNET\">世纪互联</a>涨超4%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BQ\">波奇宠物</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBON\">亿邦国际</a>跌超8%，携程跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">优信</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JG\">极光</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚</a>买菜跌超6%。</p>\n<p>3、石油及天然气行业领涨欧股 德国DAX30指数涨1%</p>\n<p>欧洲股市周四（12月16日）跳涨，受欧洲及英国央行的货币政策决定支持。泛欧斯托克600指数周四收盘上涨1.23%，石油和天然气股领涨涨幅2.8%，所有行业和主要股市都在积极区域交易。泛欧斯托克600指数上涨5.80点，涨幅1.23%，报476.56点；德国DAX30指数收盘上涨154.78点，涨幅1.00%，报15631.13点；</p>\n<p>4、美国库存下降 美元走软 双重利好支持油价上涨</p>\n<p>周四(12月16日)，在美国公布自9月以来最大的原油库存下降而美元下滑后，油价连续第二天上涨。截至发稿，美国WTI原油期货上涨117美分，涨幅1.65%，报72.04美元/桶；布伦特期货上涨93美分，涨幅1.26%，报74.81美元/桶。</p>\n<p>5、贵金属集体大爆发！黄金狂飙逾20美元</p>\n<p>周四(12月16日)，金价上涨逾1%，因美元走软，此前美联储决定加快退出在大流行时期推出的刺激措施，符合市场普遍预期。</p>\n<p>美市尾盘，现货黄金收报1798.87美元/盎司，上涨22.60美元或1.27%，日内最高触及1799.57美元高点，最低触及1775.43美元。</p>\n<p>国际宏观</p>\n<p>1、拜登签署提高美国政府债务上限法案</p>\n<p>CNBC报道，美国总统拜登于当地时间12月16日签署了将债务上限提高2.5万亿美元的法案，使美国财政部的借款授权延长至2023年，暂时避免政府债务违约。</p>\n<p>为避免出现债务违约，美国财政部长耶伦近期敦促国会在12月15日之前再次调高债务上限，但共和党不愿配合行动。经过协商，参议院民主党领袖舒默和共和党领袖麦康奈尔上周达成协议，允许参议院绕过多数立法批准所需的60票门槛、以简单多数通过相关决议案，从而使在参议院拥有50席的民主党可以不依靠共和党支持独自提高债务上限。</p>\n<p>2、福奇：奥密克戎将在几周内成为美国主要流行毒株</p>\n<p>美国国家过敏症和传染病研究所所长安东尼-福奇周四表示，奥密克戎将在几周内成为美国的主要流行新冠毒株，并敦促民众接种新冠疫苗和加强针。</p>\n<p>“这是我们面临的最具传染性的新冠毒株，它很快就会在这里占据主导地位。”福奇称。</p>\n<p>3、拜登2万亿美元经济支出计划据悉因党内分歧推迟到2022年表决</p>\n<p>参议院民主党人放弃了在今年通过总统拜登2万亿美元经济议程的打算，使白宫遭受政治打击。延期消息得到了两位知情人士证实。如此一来民主党内围绕支出法案的分歧可能会加剧，许多民主党人将该法案视为2022年中期选举的关键。</p>\n<p>4、欧洲央行维持三大利率不变 拉加德重申明年不太可能加息</p>\n<p>当地时间周四(12月16日)，欧洲央行在德国法兰克福举行的管委会会议上决定，维持三大关键利率不变，符合市场预期。同时决定在明年一季度放缓为应对疫情而采取的“紧急购债计划(PEPP)”，该计划也将按原定时间在明年三月底终止。</p>\n<p>5、英国央行在疫情危机爆发以来首次加息 以对抗通胀飙升</p>\n<p>在英国央行之前，美联储已经转向了更鹰派的立场大多数经济学家之前预计英国央行维持利率不变。英国央行自新冠疫情爆发以来首次加息。尽管创纪录的新冠感染病例给经济带来威胁，但该国依然在全球率先行动以对抗通胀飙升。</p>\n<p>6、美联储隔夜逆回购连续第二天创下历史新高</p>\n<p>周四，美联储隔夜逆回购协议的使用量增加365亿美元，达到1.658万亿美元。这超过了周三创下的历史纪录1.621万亿美元。周四有78家对手方利用了这一工具。</p>\n<p>随着机构对存放短期现金的需求增加，今年美联储逆回购工具的使用规模飙升。政府现金余额下降以及对突破债务上限的担忧也起到了推波助澜的作用。</p>\n<p>公司新闻</p>\n<p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2192944121\" target=\"_blank\">贝壳股价周四收盘跌近2% 此前遭浑水公司做空</a></p>\n<p>贝壳股价周四收盘下跌1.98%，报18.31美元，该公司此前遭知名做空机构浑水公司（Muddy Waters Research）做空。在浑水公司造假指控下，贝壳股价周四经历了“过山车”行情。贝壳股价在浑水做空报告发布后，盘前跌一度大跌10%，随后该公司的回应令股价拉升，盘中一度大涨14%，但临近午盘再度回落，此后维持低位震荡。</p>\n<p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191945453\" target=\"_blank\">携程Q3财报：前三季度总营收恢复至疫情前56%，国际业务成突破口</a></p>\n<p>12月16日，携程集团发布了截至2021年9月30日第三季度未经审计的财务业绩。财报显示，今年第三季度，携程实现营收53亿元，经调整EBITDA为5.37亿元，经调整EBITDA利润率为10%。同时，归属于携程股东的净亏损为8.49亿元（约合1.31亿美元），上年同期录得净利润16亿元。</p>\n<p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2192894268\" target=\"_blank\">美国疾控中心专家表示辉瑞和Moderna的疫苗优于强生</a></p>\n<p>美国公共卫生顾问表示，Moderna和辉瑞的mRNA疫苗比强生疫苗更适合成年人使用。美国疾控中心免疫实践咨询委员会周四开会，15名成员一致投票同意关于强生疫苗的建议。此前，美国监管机构修改关于强生疫苗的情况说明，就该疫苗可能引发罕见的血栓综合症发出警告。</p>\n<p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2192094908\" target=\"_blank\">报道称苹果为南加州办事处招聘工程师 以开发自研无线芯片</a></p>\n<p>据报道，苹果公司正在为南加州的一个办事处招聘工程师，以开发自研无线芯片，并最终取代<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRCM\">博通</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">思佳讯</a>制造的芯片。</p>\n<p>报道称，苹果公司正在寻找“数十名”人员在尔湾开发芯片，该地区靠近<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>、思佳讯和其他芯片制造商的所在地。</p>\n<h4>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2192947198\" target=\"_blank\">Rivian Q3财报：净亏损扩大至12.3亿美元 官宣50亿美元建新厂</a></h4>\n<p>美股周四盘后，刚刚在11月IPO狂揽137亿美元融资的电动车概念股Rivian发布上市后首份财报，首次取得营收和亏损扩大也在市场的意料之中。</p>\n<p>根据财报披露，公司今年三季度总共实现营收100万美元，营运损失7.76亿美元，净亏损12.33亿美元，去年同期亏损2.88亿美元。</p>\n<p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2192414459\" target=\"_blank\">成长股逆风不止 Adobe疲软前瞻指引导致股价大跌逾10%</a></p>\n<p>当地时间周四，美股软件巨头Adobe发布截至12月3日的2021财年四季报，虽然财报本身创出营收新高，但逊于预期的前瞻指引再度引发了投资者抛售，截至发稿公司股价跌10.81%。</p>\n<p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2192085949\" target=\"_blank\">瑞幸咖啡4.6亿美元债务重组获得美国法院批准</a></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>的债务重组计划获得美国曼哈顿一名联邦法官的同意，意味着这项在开曼群岛法院制定的安排可以在美国实施。根据法院文件，4.6亿美元票据的持有人将获得3.2亿美元现金加新债券。该计划还了结了股东在瑞幸咖啡被指虚报销售额后发起的很多诉讼。该公司高层还在继续应对部分股东诉讼。瑞幸咖啡美股粉单市场目前跌2.2%。</p>\n<p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191943669\" target=\"_blank\">达美航空预计2022年会盈利，2024年营收有望超500亿美元</a></p>\n<p>达美航空(DAL.US)表示，该公司预计将在2022年实现有意义的盈利，并在2024年超越疫情前盈利水平。</p>\n<p>达美航空在其资本市场日活动上介绍了其战略重点，财务方面的首要任务是恢复其财务基础，重点关注效率和现金产生，到2024年实现投资级别指标。</p>\n<p>9、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2192894799\" target=\"_blank\">卡骆驰：一双橡胶鞋撑起了股价五年飙升近2000%</a></p>\n<p>今年迄今为止，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CROX\">卡骆驰</a>股价已飙升近130%，5年涨幅超过1,900%，主导了标普400非必需消费品板块在此期间85%的涨幅。相比之下，以看似火箭式的涨幅和直言不讳的CEO而闻名的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价在这段时间飙升了约2100%。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>昨夜今晨：大型科技股全线下挫！苹果欲开发自研无线芯片</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n昨夜今晨：大型科技股全线下挫！苹果欲开发自研无线芯片\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-17 07:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<blockquote>\n 摘要：①科技股拖累美股收跌，纳指大跌近2.5%；②热门中概股收盘涨跌不一，开心汽车涨超36%；③贝壳股价周四收盘跌近2% 此前遭浑水公司做空；④英国央行在疫情危机爆发以来首次加息，以对抗通胀飙升。\n</blockquote>\n<p>海外市场</p>\n<p>1、科技股拖累美股收跌纳指大跌近2.5%、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>下挫3.9%</p>\n<p>周四(12月16日)，美国股市下滑，大型科技股的疲软拖累了主要股指的表现。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌2.47%，创下9月以来的最大单日跌幅。标准普尔500指数下跌0.87%，道琼斯工业指数跌0.08%。</p>\n<p>周四的交易中，一些大型科技股走势艰难，苹果下跌3.9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>等主要半导体股分别下跌近5.4%和6.8%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>公司的前瞻指导低于分析师预期，该公司股价下跌超过10%。</p>\n<p>2、热门中概股周四收盘涨跌不一 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KXIN\">开心汽车</a>涨超36% <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>跌近2%</p>\n<p>热门中概股周四收盘涨跌不一，开心汽车涨超36%，此前该公司获超5亿美元新能源卡车订单；贝壳跌近2%，该公司此前遭知名做空机构浑水公司做空。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">趣头条</a>涨超9%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UCL\">优克联</a>涨超8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STG\">尚德机构</a>涨超6%，人人公司、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDH\">水滴</a>公司、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CMCM\">猎豹移动</a>涨超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LIZI\">荔枝</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VNET\">世纪互联</a>涨超4%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BQ\">波奇宠物</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EBON\">亿邦国际</a>跌超8%，携程跌超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UXIN\">优信</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JG\">极光</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚</a>买菜跌超6%。</p>\n<p>3、石油及天然气行业领涨欧股 德国DAX30指数涨1%</p>\n<p>欧洲股市周四（12月16日）跳涨，受欧洲及英国央行的货币政策决定支持。泛欧斯托克600指数周四收盘上涨1.23%，石油和天然气股领涨涨幅2.8%，所有行业和主要股市都在积极区域交易。泛欧斯托克600指数上涨5.80点，涨幅1.23%，报476.56点；德国DAX30指数收盘上涨154.78点，涨幅1.00%，报15631.13点；</p>\n<p>4、美国库存下降 美元走软 双重利好支持油价上涨</p>\n<p>周四(12月16日)，在美国公布自9月以来最大的原油库存下降而美元下滑后，油价连续第二天上涨。截至发稿，美国WTI原油期货上涨117美分，涨幅1.65%，报72.04美元/桶；布伦特期货上涨93美分，涨幅1.26%，报74.81美元/桶。</p>\n<p>5、贵金属集体大爆发！黄金狂飙逾20美元</p>\n<p>周四(12月16日)，金价上涨逾1%，因美元走软，此前美联储决定加快退出在大流行时期推出的刺激措施，符合市场普遍预期。</p>\n<p>美市尾盘，现货黄金收报1798.87美元/盎司，上涨22.60美元或1.27%，日内最高触及1799.57美元高点，最低触及1775.43美元。</p>\n<p>国际宏观</p>\n<p>1、拜登签署提高美国政府债务上限法案</p>\n<p>CNBC报道，美国总统拜登于当地时间12月16日签署了将债务上限提高2.5万亿美元的法案，使美国财政部的借款授权延长至2023年，暂时避免政府债务违约。</p>\n<p>为避免出现债务违约，美国财政部长耶伦近期敦促国会在12月15日之前再次调高债务上限，但共和党不愿配合行动。经过协商，参议院民主党领袖舒默和共和党领袖麦康奈尔上周达成协议，允许参议院绕过多数立法批准所需的60票门槛、以简单多数通过相关决议案，从而使在参议院拥有50席的民主党可以不依靠共和党支持独自提高债务上限。</p>\n<p>2、福奇：奥密克戎将在几周内成为美国主要流行毒株</p>\n<p>美国国家过敏症和传染病研究所所长安东尼-福奇周四表示，奥密克戎将在几周内成为美国的主要流行新冠毒株，并敦促民众接种新冠疫苗和加强针。</p>\n<p>“这是我们面临的最具传染性的新冠毒株，它很快就会在这里占据主导地位。”福奇称。</p>\n<p>3、拜登2万亿美元经济支出计划据悉因党内分歧推迟到2022年表决</p>\n<p>参议院民主党人放弃了在今年通过总统拜登2万亿美元经济议程的打算，使白宫遭受政治打击。延期消息得到了两位知情人士证实。如此一来民主党内围绕支出法案的分歧可能会加剧，许多民主党人将该法案视为2022年中期选举的关键。</p>\n<p>4、欧洲央行维持三大利率不变 拉加德重申明年不太可能加息</p>\n<p>当地时间周四(12月16日)，欧洲央行在德国法兰克福举行的管委会会议上决定，维持三大关键利率不变，符合市场预期。同时决定在明年一季度放缓为应对疫情而采取的“紧急购债计划(PEPP)”，该计划也将按原定时间在明年三月底终止。</p>\n<p>5、英国央行在疫情危机爆发以来首次加息 以对抗通胀飙升</p>\n<p>在英国央行之前，美联储已经转向了更鹰派的立场大多数经济学家之前预计英国央行维持利率不变。英国央行自新冠疫情爆发以来首次加息。尽管创纪录的新冠感染病例给经济带来威胁，但该国依然在全球率先行动以对抗通胀飙升。</p>\n<p>6、美联储隔夜逆回购连续第二天创下历史新高</p>\n<p>周四，美联储隔夜逆回购协议的使用量增加365亿美元，达到1.658万亿美元。这超过了周三创下的历史纪录1.621万亿美元。周四有78家对手方利用了这一工具。</p>\n<p>随着机构对存放短期现金的需求增加，今年美联储逆回购工具的使用规模飙升。政府现金余额下降以及对突破债务上限的担忧也起到了推波助澜的作用。</p>\n<p>公司新闻</p>\n<p>1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2192944121\" target=\"_blank\">贝壳股价周四收盘跌近2% 此前遭浑水公司做空</a></p>\n<p>贝壳股价周四收盘下跌1.98%，报18.31美元，该公司此前遭知名做空机构浑水公司（Muddy Waters Research）做空。在浑水公司造假指控下，贝壳股价周四经历了“过山车”行情。贝壳股价在浑水做空报告发布后，盘前跌一度大跌10%，随后该公司的回应令股价拉升，盘中一度大涨14%，但临近午盘再度回落，此后维持低位震荡。</p>\n<p>2、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191945453\" target=\"_blank\">携程Q3财报：前三季度总营收恢复至疫情前56%，国际业务成突破口</a></p>\n<p>12月16日，携程集团发布了截至2021年9月30日第三季度未经审计的财务业绩。财报显示，今年第三季度，携程实现营收53亿元，经调整EBITDA为5.37亿元，经调整EBITDA利润率为10%。同时，归属于携程股东的净亏损为8.49亿元（约合1.31亿美元），上年同期录得净利润16亿元。</p>\n<p>3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2192894268\" target=\"_blank\">美国疾控中心专家表示辉瑞和Moderna的疫苗优于强生</a></p>\n<p>美国公共卫生顾问表示，Moderna和辉瑞的mRNA疫苗比强生疫苗更适合成年人使用。美国疾控中心免疫实践咨询委员会周四开会，15名成员一致投票同意关于强生疫苗的建议。此前，美国监管机构修改关于强生疫苗的情况说明，就该疫苗可能引发罕见的血栓综合症发出警告。</p>\n<p>4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2192094908\" target=\"_blank\">报道称苹果为南加州办事处招聘工程师 以开发自研无线芯片</a></p>\n<p>据报道，苹果公司正在为南加州的一个办事处招聘工程师，以开发自研无线芯片，并最终取代<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRCM\">博通</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SWKS\">思佳讯</a>制造的芯片。</p>\n<p>报道称，苹果公司正在寻找“数十名”人员在尔湾开发芯片，该地区靠近<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>、思佳讯和其他芯片制造商的所在地。</p>\n<h4>5、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2192947198\" target=\"_blank\">Rivian Q3财报：净亏损扩大至12.3亿美元 官宣50亿美元建新厂</a></h4>\n<p>美股周四盘后，刚刚在11月IPO狂揽137亿美元融资的电动车概念股Rivian发布上市后首份财报，首次取得营收和亏损扩大也在市场的意料之中。</p>\n<p>根据财报披露，公司今年三季度总共实现营收100万美元，营运损失7.76亿美元，净亏损12.33亿美元，去年同期亏损2.88亿美元。</p>\n<p>6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2192414459\" target=\"_blank\">成长股逆风不止 Adobe疲软前瞻指引导致股价大跌逾10%</a></p>\n<p>当地时间周四，美股软件巨头Adobe发布截至12月3日的2021财年四季报，虽然财报本身创出营收新高，但逊于预期的前瞻指引再度引发了投资者抛售，截至发稿公司股价跌10.81%。</p>\n<p>7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2192085949\" target=\"_blank\">瑞幸咖啡4.6亿美元债务重组获得美国法院批准</a></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>的债务重组计划获得美国曼哈顿一名联邦法官的同意，意味着这项在开曼群岛法院制定的安排可以在美国实施。根据法院文件，4.6亿美元票据的持有人将获得3.2亿美元现金加新债券。该计划还了结了股东在瑞幸咖啡被指虚报销售额后发起的很多诉讼。该公司高层还在继续应对部分股东诉讼。瑞幸咖啡美股粉单市场目前跌2.2%。</p>\n<p>8、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2191943669\" target=\"_blank\">达美航空预计2022年会盈利，2024年营收有望超500亿美元</a></p>\n<p>达美航空(DAL.US)表示，该公司预计将在2022年实现有意义的盈利，并在2024年超越疫情前盈利水平。</p>\n<p>达美航空在其资本市场日活动上介绍了其战略重点，财务方面的首要任务是恢复其财务基础，重点关注效率和现金产生，到2024年实现投资级别指标。</p>\n<p>9、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/2192894799\" target=\"_blank\">卡骆驰：一双橡胶鞋撑起了股价五年飙升近2000%</a></p>\n<p>今年迄今为止，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CROX\">卡骆驰</a>股价已飙升近130%，5年涨幅超过1,900%，主导了标普400非必需消费品板块在此期间85%的涨幅。相比之下，以看似火箭式的涨幅和直言不讳的CEO而闻名的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价在这段时间飙升了约2100%。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b23574aac95526c9e5c62ebc8dd25130","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4566":"资本集团",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4507":"流媒体概念","03086":"华夏纳指","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","TTTN":"老虎中美互联网巨头ETF","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4501":"段永平概念","BK4553":"喜马拉雅资本持仓","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157750048","content_text":"摘要：①科技股拖累美股收跌，纳指大跌近2.5%；②热门中概股收盘涨跌不一，开心汽车涨超36%；③贝壳股价周四收盘跌近2% 此前遭浑水公司做空；④英国央行在疫情危机爆发以来首次加息，以对抗通胀飙升。\n\n海外市场\n1、科技股拖累美股收跌纳指大跌近2.5%、苹果下挫3.9%\n周四(12月16日)，美国股市下滑，大型科技股的疲软拖累了主要股指的表现。以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数下跌2.47%，创下9月以来的最大单日跌幅。标准普尔500指数下跌0.87%，道琼斯工业指数跌0.08%。\n周四的交易中，一些大型科技股走势艰难，苹果下跌3.9%，AMD和英伟达等主要半导体股分别下跌近5.4%和6.8%。Adobe公司的前瞻指导低于分析师预期，该公司股价下跌超过10%。\n2、热门中概股周四收盘涨跌不一 开心汽车涨超36% 贝壳跌近2%\n热门中概股周四收盘涨跌不一，开心汽车涨超36%，此前该公司获超5亿美元新能源卡车订单；贝壳跌近2%，该公司此前遭知名做空机构浑水公司做空。\n趣头条涨超9%，优克联涨超8%，尚德机构涨超6%，人人公司、水滴公司、猎豹移动涨超5%，荔枝、世纪互联涨超4%；波奇宠物、亿邦国际跌超8%，携程跌超7%，优信、极光、叮咚买菜跌超6%。\n3、石油及天然气行业领涨欧股 德国DAX30指数涨1%\n欧洲股市周四（12月16日）跳涨，受欧洲及英国央行的货币政策决定支持。泛欧斯托克600指数周四收盘上涨1.23%，石油和天然气股领涨涨幅2.8%，所有行业和主要股市都在积极区域交易。泛欧斯托克600指数上涨5.80点，涨幅1.23%，报476.56点；德国DAX30指数收盘上涨154.78点，涨幅1.00%，报15631.13点；\n4、美国库存下降 美元走软 双重利好支持油价上涨\n周四(12月16日)，在美国公布自9月以来最大的原油库存下降而美元下滑后，油价连续第二天上涨。截至发稿，美国WTI原油期货上涨117美分，涨幅1.65%，报72.04美元/桶；布伦特期货上涨93美分，涨幅1.26%，报74.81美元/桶。\n5、贵金属集体大爆发！黄金狂飙逾20美元\n周四(12月16日)，金价上涨逾1%，因美元走软，此前美联储决定加快退出在大流行时期推出的刺激措施，符合市场普遍预期。\n美市尾盘，现货黄金收报1798.87美元/盎司，上涨22.60美元或1.27%，日内最高触及1799.57美元高点，最低触及1775.43美元。\n国际宏观\n1、拜登签署提高美国政府债务上限法案\nCNBC报道，美国总统拜登于当地时间12月16日签署了将债务上限提高2.5万亿美元的法案，使美国财政部的借款授权延长至2023年，暂时避免政府债务违约。\n为避免出现债务违约，美国财政部长耶伦近期敦促国会在12月15日之前再次调高债务上限，但共和党不愿配合行动。经过协商，参议院民主党领袖舒默和共和党领袖麦康奈尔上周达成协议，允许参议院绕过多数立法批准所需的60票门槛、以简单多数通过相关决议案，从而使在参议院拥有50席的民主党可以不依靠共和党支持独自提高债务上限。\n2、福奇：奥密克戎将在几周内成为美国主要流行毒株\n美国国家过敏症和传染病研究所所长安东尼-福奇周四表示，奥密克戎将在几周内成为美国的主要流行新冠毒株，并敦促民众接种新冠疫苗和加强针。\n“这是我们面临的最具传染性的新冠毒株，它很快就会在这里占据主导地位。”福奇称。\n3、拜登2万亿美元经济支出计划据悉因党内分歧推迟到2022年表决\n参议院民主党人放弃了在今年通过总统拜登2万亿美元经济议程的打算，使白宫遭受政治打击。延期消息得到了两位知情人士证实。如此一来民主党内围绕支出法案的分歧可能会加剧，许多民主党人将该法案视为2022年中期选举的关键。\n4、欧洲央行维持三大利率不变 拉加德重申明年不太可能加息\n当地时间周四(12月16日)，欧洲央行在德国法兰克福举行的管委会会议上决定，维持三大关键利率不变，符合市场预期。同时决定在明年一季度放缓为应对疫情而采取的“紧急购债计划(PEPP)”，该计划也将按原定时间在明年三月底终止。\n5、英国央行在疫情危机爆发以来首次加息 以对抗通胀飙升\n在英国央行之前，美联储已经转向了更鹰派的立场大多数经济学家之前预计英国央行维持利率不变。英国央行自新冠疫情爆发以来首次加息。尽管创纪录的新冠感染病例给经济带来威胁，但该国依然在全球率先行动以对抗通胀飙升。\n6、美联储隔夜逆回购连续第二天创下历史新高\n周四，美联储隔夜逆回购协议的使用量增加365亿美元，达到1.658万亿美元。这超过了周三创下的历史纪录1.621万亿美元。周四有78家对手方利用了这一工具。\n随着机构对存放短期现金的需求增加，今年美联储逆回购工具的使用规模飙升。政府现金余额下降以及对突破债务上限的担忧也起到了推波助澜的作用。\n公司新闻\n1、贝壳股价周四收盘跌近2% 此前遭浑水公司做空\n贝壳股价周四收盘下跌1.98%，报18.31美元，该公司此前遭知名做空机构浑水公司（Muddy Waters Research）做空。在浑水公司造假指控下，贝壳股价周四经历了“过山车”行情。贝壳股价在浑水做空报告发布后，盘前跌一度大跌10%，随后该公司的回应令股价拉升，盘中一度大涨14%，但临近午盘再度回落，此后维持低位震荡。\n2、携程Q3财报：前三季度总营收恢复至疫情前56%，国际业务成突破口\n12月16日，携程集团发布了截至2021年9月30日第三季度未经审计的财务业绩。财报显示，今年第三季度，携程实现营收53亿元，经调整EBITDA为5.37亿元，经调整EBITDA利润率为10%。同时，归属于携程股东的净亏损为8.49亿元（约合1.31亿美元），上年同期录得净利润16亿元。\n3、美国疾控中心专家表示辉瑞和Moderna的疫苗优于强生\n美国公共卫生顾问表示，Moderna和辉瑞的mRNA疫苗比强生疫苗更适合成年人使用。美国疾控中心免疫实践咨询委员会周四开会，15名成员一致投票同意关于强生疫苗的建议。此前，美国监管机构修改关于强生疫苗的情况说明，就该疫苗可能引发罕见的血栓综合症发出警告。\n4、报道称苹果为南加州办事处招聘工程师 以开发自研无线芯片\n据报道，苹果公司正在为南加州的一个办事处招聘工程师，以开发自研无线芯片，并最终取代博通和思佳讯制造的芯片。\n报道称，苹果公司正在寻找“数十名”人员在尔湾开发芯片，该地区靠近博通、思佳讯和其他芯片制造商的所在地。\n5、Rivian Q3财报：净亏损扩大至12.3亿美元 官宣50亿美元建新厂\n美股周四盘后，刚刚在11月IPO狂揽137亿美元融资的电动车概念股Rivian发布上市后首份财报，首次取得营收和亏损扩大也在市场的意料之中。\n根据财报披露，公司今年三季度总共实现营收100万美元，营运损失7.76亿美元，净亏损12.33亿美元，去年同期亏损2.88亿美元。\n6、成长股逆风不止 Adobe疲软前瞻指引导致股价大跌逾10%\n当地时间周四，美股软件巨头Adobe发布截至12月3日的2021财年四季报，虽然财报本身创出营收新高，但逊于预期的前瞻指引再度引发了投资者抛售，截至发稿公司股价跌10.81%。\n7、瑞幸咖啡4.6亿美元债务重组获得美国法院批准\n瑞幸咖啡的债务重组计划获得美国曼哈顿一名联邦法官的同意，意味着这项在开曼群岛法院制定的安排可以在美国实施。根据法院文件，4.6亿美元票据的持有人将获得3.2亿美元现金加新债券。该计划还了结了股东在瑞幸咖啡被指虚报销售额后发起的很多诉讼。该公司高层还在继续应对部分股东诉讼。瑞幸咖啡美股粉单市场目前跌2.2%。\n8、达美航空预计2022年会盈利，2024年营收有望超500亿美元\n达美航空(DAL.US)表示，该公司预计将在2022年实现有意义的盈利，并在2024年超越疫情前盈利水平。\n达美航空在其资本市场日活动上介绍了其战略重点，财务方面的首要任务是恢复其财务基础，重点关注效率和现金产生，到2024年实现投资级别指标。\n9、卡骆驰：一双橡胶鞋撑起了股价五年飙升近2000%\n今年迄今为止，卡骆驰股价已飙升近130%，5年涨幅超过1,900%，主导了标普400非必需消费品板块在此期间85%的涨幅。相比之下，以看似火箭式的涨幅和直言不讳的CEO而闻名的特斯拉股价在这段时间飙升了约2100%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0,".IXIC":0,"AAPL":0,".DJI":0,"03086":0,"QNETCN":0,".SPX":0,"TTTN":0}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3241,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607016325,"gmtCreate":1639456726258,"gmtModify":1639456726415,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read thanks&nbsp;[Great]&nbsp;","listText":"Good read thanks&nbsp;[Great]&nbsp;","text":"Good read thanks [Great]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607016325","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4012,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608836726,"gmtCreate":1638676869584,"gmtModify":1638676869706,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cry]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cry]&nbsp;","text":"[Cry]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608836726","repostId":"1140678193","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877496160,"gmtCreate":1637969037750,"gmtModify":1637969037875,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Holding<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>","listText":"Holding<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>","text":"Holding$Alibaba(BABA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877496160","repostId":"877198050","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":877198050,"gmtCreate":1637895142866,"gmtModify":1637896554689,"author":{"id":"3527667596890271","authorId":"3527667596890271","name":"Buy_Sell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f0ed79a338c758a22e0b4ea13bf9d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667596890271","authorIdStr":"3527667596890271"},"themes":[],"title":"🚀【11月26日】港股科技再度低迷，今天有什么交易计划？","htmlText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 11月26日讯，港股三大指数低开，恒指跌0.96%下挫237点，国指跌1.02%，恒生科技指数跌1.03%。 盘面上，昨日反弹的科技股再度低迷，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 跌超2%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 皆下跌，濠赌股、手机概念股、体育用品股走低明显；另一方面，药品股强势，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00950\">$李氏大药厂(00950)$</a> 大涨12%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02096\">$先声药业(02096)$</a> 等多数上涨，教育股、燃气股内房股、物管股普涨，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00336\">$华宝国际(00336)$</a> 涨超3%，月内累计大涨超60%。 李氏大药厂高开12%，前三季纯利同比增1677.8%。李氏大药厂跳空高开12.07%报3.9港元，市值23亿港元。公司昨晚公告，截至2021年9月30日止9个月，实现收益9.52亿港元，同比增长6.5%；毛利6.35亿港元，同比增10.3%；公司拥有人应占溢利21.69亿港元，同比增1677.8%。 美股市场 周四是西方感恩节","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 11月26日讯，港股三大指数低开，恒指跌0.96%下挫237点，国指跌1.02%，恒生科技指数跌1.03%。 盘面上，昨日反弹的科技股再度低迷，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 跌超2%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 皆下跌，濠赌股、手机概念股、体育用品股走低明显；另一方面，药品股强势，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00950\">$李氏大药厂(00950)$</a> 大涨12%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02096\">$先声药业(02096)$</a> 等多数上涨，教育股、燃气股内房股、物管股普涨，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00336\">$华宝国际(00336)$</a> 涨超3%，月内累计大涨超60%。 李氏大药厂高开12%，前三季纯利同比增1677.8%。李氏大药厂跳空高开12.07%报3.9港元，市值23亿港元。公司昨晚公告，截至2021年9月30日止9个月，实现收益9.52亿港元，同比增长6.5%；毛利6.35亿港元，同比增10.3%；公司拥有人应占溢利21.69亿港元，同比增1677.8%。 美股市场 周四是西方感恩节","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 11月26日讯，港股三大指数低开，恒指跌0.96%下挫237点，国指跌1.02%，恒生科技指数跌1.03%。 盘面上，昨日反弹的科技股再度低迷，$美团-W(03690)$ 跌超2%，$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 、$腾讯控股(00700)$ 皆下跌，濠赌股、手机概念股、体育用品股走低明显；另一方面，药品股强势，$李氏大药厂(00950)$ 大涨12%，$先声药业(02096)$ 等多数上涨，教育股、燃气股内房股、物管股普涨，$华宝国际(00336)$ 涨超3%，月内累计大涨超60%。 李氏大药厂高开12%，前三季纯利同比增1677.8%。李氏大药厂跳空高开12.07%报3.9港元，市值23亿港元。公司昨晚公告，截至2021年9月30日止9个月，实现收益9.52亿港元，同比增长6.5%；毛利6.35亿港元，同比增10.3%；公司拥有人应占溢利21.69亿港元，同比增1677.8%。 美股市场 周四是西方感恩节","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c224c9889536a14f83eca563ae0bb07","width":"666","height":"284"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877198050","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877498875,"gmtCreate":1637968987793,"gmtModify":1637968987882,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hold! [Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"Hold! [Happy]&nbsp;","text":"Hold! [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877498875","repostId":"1116442909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874465651,"gmtCreate":1637813110173,"gmtModify":1637813158670,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"老虎是表妹介绍我的，也是我第一个关注的人。有了老虎，真的让我更了解和勇于投资[Cool]","listText":"老虎是表妹介绍我的，也是我第一个关注的人。有了老虎，真的让我更了解和勇于投资[Cool]","text":"老虎是表妹介绍我的，也是我第一个关注的人。有了老虎，真的让我更了解和勇于投资[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874465651","repostId":"875266611","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":875266611,"gmtCreate":1637659026330,"gmtModify":1637929617182,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"【感恩回馈】说说你和老虎的第一次","htmlText":"感恩节马上要到了，小虎提醒：感恩节周四(11月25日)美股休市哦！感恩节翌日(26日)美股提前3小时收盘~ 为了回馈广大虎友们的支持与陪伴，小虎君为大家准备了一些小礼物，参与即可获赠66虎币，如果你愿意多聊2句，还有机会获得小虎全套盲盒。 不知不觉，老虎已经成立7年了， 在过去年的7年，我们认识了很多新老朋友 可曾记得你是何时加入老虎的？ 又是缘何来到这里？ 【参与方式】 本帖留言说出 「你和老虎的第一次」 你发布的第一个帖子是什么？ 你关注的第一个好友是谁？ 你关注/交易的第一只股票是什么？ 【活动奖励】 凡是参与晒单的虎友均可获得66虎币，除此之外，还有机会获得以下奖励： 知己奖：我们会选取“第一条帖子”发帖时间最早的虎友赠予1套小虎盲盒手办（5个） 人气奖：我们会选取评论获赞量最高的3位虎友，随机赠予小虎盲盒手办1个 优质奖：我们会随机选取评论优质有趣的虎友，随机赠予小虎盲盒手办1个 【活动时间】： 2021年11月23日-11月29日 【特别说明】 水贴，重复内容，广告，恶意营销等属于无效内容； 文章需原创并首发于老虎，并且版权归老虎社区所有； 本次活动中用户所提到的标的，仅供参考，不构成投资建议，据此操作，风险自负； 活动最终解释权归老虎社区所有； 若对本次活动有不解之处，可在此贴留言，或微信虎妞（微信号：itiger2014）咨询。 欢迎大家在下贴评论区留言说说「你和老虎的第一次」，你发布的第一个帖子是什么？你关注的第一个好友是谁？你关注/交易的第一只股票是什么？参与即可获赠66虎币，如果你愿意多聊2句，还有机会获得小虎全套盲盒。","listText":"感恩节马上要到了，小虎提醒：感恩节周四(11月25日)美股休市哦！感恩节翌日(26日)美股提前3小时收盘~ 为了回馈广大虎友们的支持与陪伴，小虎君为大家准备了一些小礼物，参与即可获赠66虎币，如果你愿意多聊2句，还有机会获得小虎全套盲盒。 不知不觉，老虎已经成立7年了， 在过去年的7年，我们认识了很多新老朋友 可曾记得你是何时加入老虎的？ 又是缘何来到这里？ 【参与方式】 本帖留言说出 「你和老虎的第一次」 你发布的第一个帖子是什么？ 你关注的第一个好友是谁？ 你关注/交易的第一只股票是什么？ 【活动奖励】 凡是参与晒单的虎友均可获得66虎币，除此之外，还有机会获得以下奖励： 知己奖：我们会选取“第一条帖子”发帖时间最早的虎友赠予1套小虎盲盒手办（5个） 人气奖：我们会选取评论获赞量最高的3位虎友，随机赠予小虎盲盒手办1个 优质奖：我们会随机选取评论优质有趣的虎友，随机赠予小虎盲盒手办1个 【活动时间】： 2021年11月23日-11月29日 【特别说明】 水贴，重复内容，广告，恶意营销等属于无效内容； 文章需原创并首发于老虎，并且版权归老虎社区所有； 本次活动中用户所提到的标的，仅供参考，不构成投资建议，据此操作，风险自负； 活动最终解释权归老虎社区所有； 若对本次活动有不解之处，可在此贴留言，或微信虎妞（微信号：itiger2014）咨询。 欢迎大家在下贴评论区留言说说「你和老虎的第一次」，你发布的第一个帖子是什么？你关注的第一个好友是谁？你关注/交易的第一只股票是什么？参与即可获赠66虎币，如果你愿意多聊2句，还有机会获得小虎全套盲盒。","text":"感恩节马上要到了，小虎提醒：感恩节周四(11月25日)美股休市哦！感恩节翌日(26日)美股提前3小时收盘~ 为了回馈广大虎友们的支持与陪伴，小虎君为大家准备了一些小礼物，参与即可获赠66虎币，如果你愿意多聊2句，还有机会获得小虎全套盲盒。 不知不觉，老虎已经成立7年了， 在过去年的7年，我们认识了很多新老朋友 可曾记得你是何时加入老虎的？ 又是缘何来到这里？ 【参与方式】 本帖留言说出 「你和老虎的第一次」 你发布的第一个帖子是什么？ 你关注的第一个好友是谁？ 你关注/交易的第一只股票是什么？ 【活动奖励】 凡是参与晒单的虎友均可获得66虎币，除此之外，还有机会获得以下奖励： 知己奖：我们会选取“第一条帖子”发帖时间最早的虎友赠予1套小虎盲盒手办（5个） 人气奖：我们会选取评论获赞量最高的3位虎友，随机赠予小虎盲盒手办1个 优质奖：我们会随机选取评论优质有趣的虎友，随机赠予小虎盲盒手办1个 【活动时间】： 2021年11月23日-11月29日 【特别说明】 水贴，重复内容，广告，恶意营销等属于无效内容； 文章需原创并首发于老虎，并且版权归老虎社区所有； 本次活动中用户所提到的标的，仅供参考，不构成投资建议，据此操作，风险自负； 活动最终解释权归老虎社区所有； 若对本次活动有不解之处，可在此贴留言，或微信虎妞（微信号：itiger2014）咨询。 欢迎大家在下贴评论区留言说说「你和老虎的第一次」，你发布的第一个帖子是什么？你关注的第一个好友是谁？你关注/交易的第一只股票是什么？参与即可获赠66虎币，如果你愿意多聊2句，还有机会获得小虎全套盲盒。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b56d1364489aaafc34e363d2b2b842a8","width":"1462","height":"818"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875266611","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875225707,"gmtCreate":1637659983109,"gmtModify":1637659983202,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes! Go <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a>","listText":"Yes! Go <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a>","text":"Yes! Go $Micron Technology(MU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875225707","repostId":"872905950","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":872905950,"gmtCreate":1637383951636,"gmtModify":1637411029223,"author":{"id":"3566982670449095","authorId":"3566982670449095","name":"wywy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76ed86374fc7b16c12094c45ea30787c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3566982670449095","authorIdStr":"3566982670449095"},"themes":[],"title":"Micron on the way up. Go Go Micron","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a>Micron Technology share is up about 8% on the last trading day for this week. It was announced that MediaTek Inc. has validated Micron’s low-power double data rate 5X (LPDDR5X) DRAM for MediaTek’s new Dimensity 9000 5G flagship chipset for smartphones. Micron is the first semiconductor company to be sample and validate this fastest, most advanced mobile memory in the industry and has shipped the first batch of samples of LPDDR5X built on its first-to-market 1α (1-alpha) node. Designed for high-end and flagship smartphones, Micron’s LPDDR5X allows the smartphone ecosystem to unlock the next wave of data-intensive applications powered by artificial intelligence (AI) and 5G innovation.This really positive news. More application need","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a>Micron Technology share is up about 8% on the last trading day for this week. It was announced that MediaTek Inc. has validated Micron’s low-power double data rate 5X (LPDDR5X) DRAM for MediaTek’s new Dimensity 9000 5G flagship chipset for smartphones. Micron is the first semiconductor company to be sample and validate this fastest, most advanced mobile memory in the industry and has shipped the first batch of samples of LPDDR5X built on its first-to-market 1α (1-alpha) node. Designed for high-end and flagship smartphones, Micron’s LPDDR5X allows the smartphone ecosystem to unlock the next wave of data-intensive applications powered by artificial intelligence (AI) and 5G innovation.This really positive news. More application need","text":"$Micron Technology(MU)$Micron Technology share is up about 8% on the last trading day for this week. It was announced that MediaTek Inc. has validated Micron’s low-power double data rate 5X (LPDDR5X) DRAM for MediaTek’s new Dimensity 9000 5G flagship chipset for smartphones. Micron is the first semiconductor company to be sample and validate this fastest, most advanced mobile memory in the industry and has shipped the first batch of samples of LPDDR5X built on its first-to-market 1α (1-alpha) node. Designed for high-end and flagship smartphones, Micron’s LPDDR5X allows the smartphone ecosystem to unlock the next wave of data-intensive applications powered by artificial intelligence (AI) and 5G innovation.This really positive news. More application need","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/476a86c41ab42c8ec21433d126e52aa8","width":"1080","height":"4259"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872905950","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875992055,"gmtCreate":1637593267877,"gmtModify":1637593267965,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"加油啊[Cool]","listText":"加油啊[Cool]","text":"加油啊[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875992055","repostId":"876289893","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":876289893,"gmtCreate":1637318433108,"gmtModify":1637323760844,"author":{"id":"3510558082622800","authorId":"3510558082622800","name":"胖虎哒哒","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75b95d9326c02813b7b87ba8c1eccb5a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3510558082622800","authorIdStr":"3510558082622800"},"themes":[],"title":"阿里巴巴业绩暴雷，多少抄底合适？","htmlText":"阿里这次的财报过于惨烈，阿里巴巴-SW 港股大跌10%，报139.80港元。昨晚，阿里巴巴美股也大跌11%，报143.6美元，一跌10%，着实把我惊到了，下面大家一起探讨一下阿里为啥暴雷？以及股价是否见底？<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 我先抛砖引玉，说说我的拙见，然后大家评论区留言回复，言之有理即可获得30~100虎币！ 关于暴雷主要有这几条： 1、财报数据称得上史上最差，阿里这个季度的业绩增速看似平稳依然在20%以上，但是实际扣除高鑫零售的份额已经下滑至16%；而更惨的是经调整净利润同比下降39%。这次财报显示阿里巴巴下调2022营收指引，调整前全年收入预期增速为29.7%（9300亿），调整后变为20%-23%。利润下滑的主要原因是为商户提供支持的政策导致客户管理营收低于预期，而鉴于宏观环境的缓和和竞争的激烈，明年的全年收入预期进一步下调。 2、相对有起色的活跃增量用户并没有看起来那么美，阿里国内零售平台年度活跃用户数增速（过去十二个月在天猫淘宝有过购物行为的账户数）达到了8.63亿，同比增长14%。根据阿里巴巴的统计，淘宝Deals的dau中，除了淘宝App的dau外，约有50%是唯一增量用户，而超过50%的淘宝网用户是阿里巴巴在中国零售市场首次购买生鲜农产品的用户。虽然疫情加速培养了用户的在线购物习惯，但是由于电商环境竞争激烈，活跃客户增长也深受第一条影响，平台加强对商户的补贴，才带来了更多的活跃客户。阿里的问题同样要面对拼多多的难题，如果不继续保持现有补贴力度，新增客户能否留得住？ 3、阿里明确表示将以长周期思维坚","listText":"阿里这次的财报过于惨烈，阿里巴巴-SW 港股大跌10%，报139.80港元。昨晚，阿里巴巴美股也大跌11%，报143.6美元，一跌10%，着实把我惊到了，下面大家一起探讨一下阿里为啥暴雷？以及股价是否见底？<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 我先抛砖引玉，说说我的拙见，然后大家评论区留言回复，言之有理即可获得30~100虎币！ 关于暴雷主要有这几条： 1、财报数据称得上史上最差，阿里这个季度的业绩增速看似平稳依然在20%以上，但是实际扣除高鑫零售的份额已经下滑至16%；而更惨的是经调整净利润同比下降39%。这次财报显示阿里巴巴下调2022营收指引，调整前全年收入预期增速为29.7%（9300亿），调整后变为20%-23%。利润下滑的主要原因是为商户提供支持的政策导致客户管理营收低于预期，而鉴于宏观环境的缓和和竞争的激烈，明年的全年收入预期进一步下调。 2、相对有起色的活跃增量用户并没有看起来那么美，阿里国内零售平台年度活跃用户数增速（过去十二个月在天猫淘宝有过购物行为的账户数）达到了8.63亿，同比增长14%。根据阿里巴巴的统计，淘宝Deals的dau中，除了淘宝App的dau外，约有50%是唯一增量用户，而超过50%的淘宝网用户是阿里巴巴在中国零售市场首次购买生鲜农产品的用户。虽然疫情加速培养了用户的在线购物习惯，但是由于电商环境竞争激烈，活跃客户增长也深受第一条影响，平台加强对商户的补贴，才带来了更多的活跃客户。阿里的问题同样要面对拼多多的难题，如果不继续保持现有补贴力度，新增客户能否留得住？ 3、阿里明确表示将以长周期思维坚","text":"阿里这次的财报过于惨烈，阿里巴巴-SW 港股大跌10%，报139.80港元。昨晚，阿里巴巴美股也大跌11%，报143.6美元，一跌10%，着实把我惊到了，下面大家一起探讨一下阿里为啥暴雷？以及股价是否见底？$阿里巴巴(BABA)$$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 我先抛砖引玉，说说我的拙见，然后大家评论区留言回复，言之有理即可获得30~100虎币！ 关于暴雷主要有这几条： 1、财报数据称得上史上最差，阿里这个季度的业绩增速看似平稳依然在20%以上，但是实际扣除高鑫零售的份额已经下滑至16%；而更惨的是经调整净利润同比下降39%。这次财报显示阿里巴巴下调2022营收指引，调整前全年收入预期增速为29.7%（9300亿），调整后变为20%-23%。利润下滑的主要原因是为商户提供支持的政策导致客户管理营收低于预期，而鉴于宏观环境的缓和和竞争的激烈，明年的全年收入预期进一步下调。 2、相对有起色的活跃增量用户并没有看起来那么美，阿里国内零售平台年度活跃用户数增速（过去十二个月在天猫淘宝有过购物行为的账户数）达到了8.63亿，同比增长14%。根据阿里巴巴的统计，淘宝Deals的dau中，除了淘宝App的dau外，约有50%是唯一增量用户，而超过50%的淘宝网用户是阿里巴巴在中国零售市场首次购买生鲜农产品的用户。虽然疫情加速培养了用户的在线购物习惯，但是由于电商环境竞争激烈，活跃客户增长也深受第一条影响，平台加强对商户的补贴，才带来了更多的活跃客户。阿里的问题同样要面对拼多多的难题，如果不继续保持现有补贴力度，新增客户能否留得住？ 3、阿里明确表示将以长周期思维坚","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9344b02adb775b72e54c692518378855","width":"799","height":"533"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876289893","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2218,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872978393,"gmtCreate":1637409698412,"gmtModify":1637409698544,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can consider <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>","listText":"Can consider <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>","text":"Can consider $Alibaba(BABA)$ and $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872978393","repostId":"878368285","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":878368285,"gmtCreate":1637150760231,"gmtModify":1744960756147,"author":{"id":"3585780691540522","authorId":"3585780691540522","name":"FundMall","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3585780691540522","authorIdStr":"3585780691540522"},"themes":[],"title":"If I have $1000, which funds should I buy?","htmlText":"Market momentum has slowed down significantly in contrast to the high flying 1H21. Since then, investors are struggling with investing in the prevailing macroenvironment. Today, we will break down the market situations and help investors select potential winners heading into 2022. Equity Market Recap In the first half of the year, market sentiments was largely positive due to the expectation that a post-pandemic global reopening is near. However, with the resurgence of the delta variant in the second half, optimism has wavered. Supply shortages have also sent prices of raw materials, in particular energy related cost to record highs, threatening a looming inflationary pressure which is considered detrimental to the price of long duration assets, more specifically growth equities. Nonethele","listText":"Market momentum has slowed down significantly in contrast to the high flying 1H21. Since then, investors are struggling with investing in the prevailing macroenvironment. Today, we will break down the market situations and help investors select potential winners heading into 2022. Equity Market Recap In the first half of the year, market sentiments was largely positive due to the expectation that a post-pandemic global reopening is near. However, with the resurgence of the delta variant in the second half, optimism has wavered. Supply shortages have also sent prices of raw materials, in particular energy related cost to record highs, threatening a looming inflationary pressure which is considered detrimental to the price of long duration assets, more specifically growth equities. Nonethele","text":"Market momentum has slowed down significantly in contrast to the high flying 1H21. Since then, investors are struggling with investing in the prevailing macroenvironment. Today, we will break down the market situations and help investors select potential winners heading into 2022. Equity Market Recap In the first half of the year, market sentiments was largely positive due to the expectation that a post-pandemic global reopening is near. However, with the resurgence of the delta variant in the second half, optimism has wavered. Supply shortages have also sent prices of raw materials, in particular energy related cost to record highs, threatening a looming inflationary pressure which is considered detrimental to the price of long duration assets, more specifically growth equities. Nonethele","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f7e39ebe59d556f07dfeb2ac8e31711","width":"688","height":"431"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ce72fa19e57760fda3d8526fea7ef6","width":"688","height":"370"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4163197fcd15b9387b544f5ddcfb1d5","width":"688","height":"341"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878368285","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876898568,"gmtCreate":1637288254754,"gmtModify":1637288254881,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"买买买！[Cool]","listText":"买买买！[Cool]","text":"买买买！[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876898568","repostId":"878530482","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":878530482,"gmtCreate":1637204151243,"gmtModify":1637205157556,"author":{"id":"3527667596890271","authorId":"3527667596890271","name":"Buy_Sell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f0ed79a338c758a22e0b4ea13bf9d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667596890271","authorIdStr":"3527667596890271"},"themes":[],"title":"🔥【11月18日】抗疫概念股逆市大涨！Rivian重挫15%！今天买点啥","htmlText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 11月18日讯，港股三大指数大幅低开，恒指跌1.09%报25369点，国指跌1.28%报9075点，恒生科技指数跌1.89%报6546点。盘面上，大型科技股普遍低开，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$</a> 绩后大跌10.3%、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a> 绩后大跌近7%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 跌4%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">$京东集团-SW(09618)$</a> 跌超3%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 等均有跌幅；昨日强势的教育股、光伏股普遍回调，中教控股跌超3%，银行股、重型机械股普跌，内房股涨跌各异，体育用品股走强明显，燃气股、乳制品股、电力股多数上涨。 恒大清仓！","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 11月18日讯，港股三大指数大幅低开，恒指跌1.09%报25369点，国指跌1.28%报9075点，恒生科技指数跌1.89%报6546点。盘面上，大型科技股普遍低开，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$</a> 绩后大跌10.3%、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a> 绩后大跌近7%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 跌4%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">$京东集团-SW(09618)$</a> 跌超3%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 等均有跌幅；昨日强势的教育股、光伏股普遍回调，中教控股跌超3%，银行股、重型机械股普跌，内房股涨跌各异，体育用品股走强明显，燃气股、乳制品股、电力股多数上涨。 恒大清仓！","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 11月18日讯，港股三大指数大幅低开，恒指跌1.09%报25369点，国指跌1.28%报9075点，恒生科技指数跌1.89%报6546点。盘面上，大型科技股普遍低开，$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$ 绩后大跌10.3%、$百度集团-SW(09888)$ 绩后大跌近7%，$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 跌4%，$京东集团-SW(09618)$ 跌超3%，$美团-W(03690)$ 、$快手-W(01024)$ 、$腾讯控股(00700)$ 等均有跌幅；昨日强势的教育股、光伏股普遍回调，中教控股跌超3%，银行股、重型机械股普跌，内房股涨跌各异，体育用品股走强明显，燃气股、乳制品股、电力股多数上涨。 恒大清仓！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e454a91e0fff950506d54ebd1b45ffc","width":"266","height":"190"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878530482","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878794018,"gmtCreate":1637229892634,"gmtModify":1637229892719,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a> [Cool]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a> [Cool]","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878794018","repostId":"878072557","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":878072557,"gmtCreate":1637130715776,"gmtModify":1637139554905,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8901a3026957857b6996ae953d595bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667618821228","authorIdStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"EVs Stocks Are Racing🏎️. Which Ones Are the Best Bets?","htmlText":"EV stocks are in vogue today🔥, as it seems the majority of EV names are all accelerating to the upside.&nbsp;📈 Here are some strong EVs… <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> Tesla&nbsp;trucked ahead 4.08% and closed back above $1K at $1,054.73.This boost comes just a day after Elon Musk sold another 934,091 shares — he exercised his options to acquire 2.1 million shares for $6.24/share on Monday. Despite Elon’s share dump,&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;is hanging in there, +49.3%. <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a> Rivian Automotive&nbsp;rushed 15.16% to all-time highs.&nbsp;The fresh IPO has registered gains every day since its public debut.&nbsp;Rivian&nbsp;is up over 120% since IPO and has a market cap of&amp;nbs","listText":"EV stocks are in vogue today🔥, as it seems the majority of EV names are all accelerating to the upside.&nbsp;📈 Here are some strong EVs… <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a> Tesla&nbsp;trucked ahead 4.08% and closed back above $1K at $1,054.73.This boost comes just a day after Elon Musk sold another 934,091 shares — he exercised his options to acquire 2.1 million shares for $6.24/share on Monday. Despite Elon’s share dump,&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;is hanging in there, +49.3%. <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RIVN\">$Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$</a> Rivian Automotive&nbsp;rushed 15.16% to all-time highs.&nbsp;The fresh IPO has registered gains every day since its public debut.&nbsp;Rivian&nbsp;is up over 120% since IPO and has a market cap of&amp;nbs","text":"EV stocks are in vogue today🔥, as it seems the majority of EV names are all accelerating to the upside. 📈 Here are some strong EVs… $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ Tesla trucked ahead 4.08% and closed back above $1K at $1,054.73.This boost comes just a day after Elon Musk sold another 934,091 shares — he exercised his options to acquire 2.1 million shares for $6.24/share on Monday. Despite Elon’s share dump, Tesla is hanging in there, +49.3%. $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ Rivian Automotive rushed 15.16% to all-time highs. The fresh IPO has registered gains every day since its public debut. Rivian is up over 120% since IPO and has a market cap of&nbs","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b5cbd84bdaf63285b619f4638d4b354","width":"1011","height":"595"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6d8c717bf3545326958595b651548a4","width":"1007","height":"609"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c548069a00efe71ddf97f5444f08340b","width":"1006","height":"600"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878072557","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":8,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878795543,"gmtCreate":1637229864482,"gmtModify":1637229864658,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a> [Cool]","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a> [Cool]","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$ [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878795543","repostId":"878464314","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":878464314,"gmtCreate":1637222890735,"gmtModify":1637223673281,"author":{"id":"3568081734360099","authorId":"3568081734360099","name":"何安迪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c7061d02e3c72d7ce21a375ae80cb6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3568081734360099","authorIdStr":"3568081734360099"},"themes":[],"title":"【重金求车】老虎车友们，有啥新能源车推荐不？","htmlText":"最近新能源车火的不要不要的，想当初，我头一次在路上见到“活的”会跑特斯拉，即便在我反应过来的时候，它已经留给我一个光滑绚丽的pp，但我仍旧难掩心头激动。 时过境迁了，当初的惊鸿一瞥现在已经变成见怪不怪。前两天跟我爸打电话，家里这位两耳不闻窗外事，指着朱一龙跟我讲梁朝伟的中年男子，讲起新能源汽车来，也是头头是道。 所以，今天想问问广大买了新能源车的车友，和还没有买但想买，以及在汽车领域深有研究的虎友们，有没有啥新能源车值得推荐入手的。 以下我特意整理了一些目前市面上销量比较高的新能源车型，非常欢迎大家指教讨论 国内三宝代表：蔚来、理想、小鹏（排名不分先后） 蔚来派出选手ES6<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> 外观上还是比较漂亮的，优点之一就是“空间大”！妈妈再也不用担心我无处安放的大长腿了！看配置，前后双点机，前部永磁同步电机搭配后部的感应异步电机。&nbsp;最大续航可达510公里 理想ONE不甘示弱，比空间，不好意思，别说4个人了，7个人也能坐得下，关键内饰有四块大屏，老公开着车，不耽误老婆看剧，完美，百公里6.9升油耗，中规中矩<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a> 作为梦想着开跑车住豪宅的白日梦赛道终生荣誉选手，虽然豪宅住不起，但是拥有一辆小鹏P7能让我实现一半的梦想，关键还有18个丹拿音响，命中红心！<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a> 美国新三宝代表：特斯拉、Rivian、Lucid 首先就是新能源赛道的老大，特斯拉！当初在路上的惊鸿一瞥，乱我心曲，Model Y单次续航640公里，","listText":"最近新能源车火的不要不要的，想当初，我头一次在路上见到“活的”会跑特斯拉，即便在我反应过来的时候，它已经留给我一个光滑绚丽的pp，但我仍旧难掩心头激动。 时过境迁了，当初的惊鸿一瞥现在已经变成见怪不怪。前两天跟我爸打电话，家里这位两耳不闻窗外事，指着朱一龙跟我讲梁朝伟的中年男子，讲起新能源汽车来，也是头头是道。 所以，今天想问问广大买了新能源车的车友，和还没有买但想买，以及在汽车领域深有研究的虎友们，有没有啥新能源车值得推荐入手的。 以下我特意整理了一些目前市面上销量比较高的新能源车型，非常欢迎大家指教讨论 国内三宝代表：蔚来、理想、小鹏（排名不分先后） 蔚来派出选手ES6<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> 外观上还是比较漂亮的，优点之一就是“空间大”！妈妈再也不用担心我无处安放的大长腿了！看配置，前后双点机，前部永磁同步电机搭配后部的感应异步电机。&nbsp;最大续航可达510公里 理想ONE不甘示弱，比空间，不好意思，别说4个人了，7个人也能坐得下，关键内饰有四块大屏，老公开着车，不耽误老婆看剧，完美，百公里6.9升油耗，中规中矩<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a> 作为梦想着开跑车住豪宅的白日梦赛道终生荣誉选手，虽然豪宅住不起，但是拥有一辆小鹏P7能让我实现一半的梦想，关键还有18个丹拿音响，命中红心！<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$</a> 美国新三宝代表：特斯拉、Rivian、Lucid 首先就是新能源赛道的老大，特斯拉！当初在路上的惊鸿一瞥，乱我心曲，Model Y单次续航640公里，","text":"最近新能源车火的不要不要的，想当初，我头一次在路上见到“活的”会跑特斯拉，即便在我反应过来的时候，它已经留给我一个光滑绚丽的pp，但我仍旧难掩心头激动。 时过境迁了，当初的惊鸿一瞥现在已经变成见怪不怪。前两天跟我爸打电话，家里这位两耳不闻窗外事，指着朱一龙跟我讲梁朝伟的中年男子，讲起新能源汽车来，也是头头是道。 所以，今天想问问广大买了新能源车的车友，和还没有买但想买，以及在汽车领域深有研究的虎友们，有没有啥新能源车值得推荐入手的。 以下我特意整理了一些目前市面上销量比较高的新能源车型，非常欢迎大家指教讨论 国内三宝代表：蔚来、理想、小鹏（排名不分先后） 蔚来派出选手ES6$蔚来(NIO)$ 外观上还是比较漂亮的，优点之一就是“空间大”！妈妈再也不用担心我无处安放的大长腿了！看配置，前后双点机，前部永磁同步电机搭配后部的感应异步电机。 最大续航可达510公里 理想ONE不甘示弱，比空间，不好意思，别说4个人了，7个人也能坐得下，关键内饰有四块大屏，老公开着车，不耽误老婆看剧，完美，百公里6.9升油耗，中规中矩$理想汽车(LI)$ 作为梦想着开跑车住豪宅的白日梦赛道终生荣誉选手，虽然豪宅住不起，但是拥有一辆小鹏P7能让我实现一半的梦想，关键还有18个丹拿音响，命中红心！$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$ 美国新三宝代表：特斯拉、Rivian、Lucid 首先就是新能源赛道的老大，特斯拉！当初在路上的惊鸿一瞥，乱我心曲，Model Y单次续航640公里，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d33c0738d4a9cf1f80ffa775987f1c1","width":"554","height":"218"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/195bd16c2b4bd474da0a940cb73ff8e1","width":"500","height":"284"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b5bcd0ce723c927a52fbd5bbdae2630","width":"554","height":"191"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878464314","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":633,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871746529,"gmtCreate":1637116419861,"gmtModify":1637116420145,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看好<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a> [Cool]","listText":"看好<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a> [Cool]","text":"看好$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871746529","repostId":"871376216","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":871376216,"gmtCreate":1637031174831,"gmtModify":1637032091693,"author":{"id":"3527667596890271","authorId":"3527667596890271","name":"Buy_Sell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f0ed79a338c758a22e0b4ea13bf9d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667596890271","authorIdStr":"3527667596890271"},"themes":[],"title":"🔥【11月16日】新能源车股下跌，热门中概多数下滑，今天买点啥","htmlText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 11月16日讯，港股三大指数高开，恒指涨0.22%报25446点，国指涨0.16%报9100点，恒生科技指数涨0.17%报6612点。 盘面上，大型科技股普涨，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$网易-S(09999)$</a> 涨超1%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 小幅高开；生物科技股延续昨日强势，沛嘉医疗高开逾7%；近日走弱的内房股、物管股多数反弹，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06049\">$保利物业(06049)$</a> 涨超10%、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00884\">$旭辉控股集团(00884)$</a> 涨超4%；风电股、家电股、光伏股、餐饮股普涨。另一方面，教育股继续下跌，航空股、银行股、电力股普遍下跌。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00136\">$恒</a>","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 11月16日讯，港股三大指数高开，恒指涨0.22%报25446点，国指涨0.16%报9100点，恒生科技指数涨0.17%报6612点。 盘面上，大型科技股普涨，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$网易-S(09999)$</a> 涨超1%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 小幅高开；生物科技股延续昨日强势，沛嘉医疗高开逾7%；近日走弱的内房股、物管股多数反弹，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06049\">$保利物业(06049)$</a> 涨超10%、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00884\">$旭辉控股集团(00884)$</a> 涨超4%；风电股、家电股、光伏股、餐饮股普涨。另一方面，教育股继续下跌，航空股、银行股、电力股普遍下跌。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00136\">$恒</a>","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 11月16日讯，港股三大指数高开，恒指涨0.22%报25446点，国指涨0.16%报9100点，恒生科技指数涨0.17%报6612点。 盘面上，大型科技股普涨，$腾讯控股(00700)$ 、$网易-S(09999)$ 涨超1%，$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 、$百度集团-SW(09888)$ 、$小米集团-W(01810)$ 小幅高开；生物科技股延续昨日强势，沛嘉医疗高开逾7%；近日走弱的内房股、物管股多数反弹，$保利物业(06049)$ 涨超10%、$旭辉控股集团(00884)$ 涨超4%；风电股、家电股、光伏股、餐饮股普涨。另一方面，教育股继续下跌，航空股、银行股、电力股普遍下跌。 $恒","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c98f00234c749fa3416e4f28edd5955b","width":"212","height":"238"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871376216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871611327,"gmtCreate":1637062749569,"gmtModify":1637062749847,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"348","listText":"348","text":"348","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871611327","repostId":"873288883","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":873288883,"gmtCreate":1636947775238,"gmtModify":1636961570402,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8901a3026957857b6996ae953d595bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667618821228","authorIdStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"Stock Prediction: The Share Price of Sea📈","htmlText":"Hey! Welcome&nbsp;you&nbsp;guys&nbsp;join&nbsp;our&nbsp;\"stock&nbsp;prediction\"&nbsp;column!&nbsp;✨✨ <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a> earnings&nbsp;on&nbsp;Nov&nbsp;16,&nbsp;Tuesday.&nbsp; Let's&nbsp;start&nbsp;the&nbsp;game! <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a> 1.&nbsp;Predict&nbsp;the&nbsp;closing&nbsp;price&nbsp;of&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a> on&nbsp;Nov&nbsp;19,&nbsp;Friday. 2.&nbsp;Please&nbsp;round&nbsp;your&nbsp;answer&nbsp;to&nbsp;the&nbsp;whole&nbsp;number,&nbsp;for&nbsp;example,&nbsp;round&nbsp;$323.57&nbsp;to&nbsp;$324. 3.&nbsp;Leave&nbsp;your&nbsp;answer&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;comment,&nbsp;the&nbsp;first&nbsp;10&nbsp;correct&nbsp;answers&nbsp;share&nbsp;1000&nbsp;Tige","listText":"Hey! Welcome&nbsp;you&nbsp;guys&nbsp;join&nbsp;our&nbsp;\"stock&nbsp;prediction\"&nbsp;column!&nbsp;✨✨ <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a> earnings&nbsp;on&nbsp;Nov&nbsp;16,&nbsp;Tuesday.&nbsp; Let's&nbsp;start&nbsp;the&nbsp;game! <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a> 1.&nbsp;Predict&nbsp;the&nbsp;closing&nbsp;price&nbsp;of&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a> on&nbsp;Nov&nbsp;19,&nbsp;Friday. 2.&nbsp;Please&nbsp;round&nbsp;your&nbsp;answer&nbsp;to&nbsp;the&nbsp;whole&nbsp;number,&nbsp;for&nbsp;example,&nbsp;round&nbsp;$323.57&nbsp;to&nbsp;$324. 3.&nbsp;Leave&nbsp;your&nbsp;answer&nbsp;in&nbsp;the&nbsp;comment,&nbsp;the&nbsp;first&nbsp;10&nbsp;correct&nbsp;answers&nbsp;share&nbsp;1000&nbsp;Tige","text":"Hey! Welcome you guys join our \"stock prediction\" column! ✨✨ $Sea Ltd(SE)$ earnings on Nov 16, Tuesday. Let's start the game! $Sea Ltd(SE)$ 1. Predict the closing price of $Sea Ltd(SE)$ on Nov 19, Friday. 2. Please round your answer to the whole number, for example, round $323.57 to $324. 3. Leave your answer in the comment, the first 10 correct answers share 1000 Tige","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/137c76c6808b43ab9b39ac492ed2fab3","width":"308","height":"164"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873288883","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871619783,"gmtCreate":1637062621942,"gmtModify":1637062622210,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我猜可能会破位下跌因为没信心而卖[Shy]","listText":"我猜可能会破位下跌因为没信心而卖[Shy]","text":"我猜可能会破位下跌因为没信心而卖[Shy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871619783","repostId":"871815472","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":871815472,"gmtCreate":1637050814792,"gmtModify":1637052449506,"author":{"id":"3534841124006277","authorId":"3534841124006277","name":"期市猎手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/208732fde43928365df95f62410e973e","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3534841124006277","authorIdStr":"3534841124006277"},"themes":[],"title":"本周大事件盘点：你觉得纳指本周还能创新高吗？","htmlText":"本周仍旧是繁忙的一周，每天都有需要关注的焦点事件。 周一 周一的风险时段在晚间，将有两件大事： 21:30 美国11月纽约联储制造业就业指数 此数据通常会对市场产生一定的影响，可以与每周公布的美国初请失业金人数相媲美 22:30 英国央行行长贝利就维持利率不变决定对议员讲话 英国央行举世皆惊维持利率不变的决议公布后，英国央行行长贝利的讲话将备受期待。贝利讲话后，市场将对英国央行的加息预期重新定价。也会连带改变对美联储加息的预期。 周二 21:30 美国10月零售销售（市场预期：1.1%；前值：0.7%） 该数据素有“恐怖数据”之称，是本周最重大的一个经济数据，也是本月改写市场走势的第三个经济数据。之前两个分别是：美国10月CPI和10月密西根大学的消费者信心指数（这两个数据均超越所有经济学家的预期）。本次数据可能存在很大的不确定性，在商品持续短缺的情况下，供应限制可能会给假日购物季造成干扰。 周三 22:10 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在2021年美国国债市场会议上发表线上主旨讲话 从周三开始美联储官员讲话将占据市场的焦点。从会议的议程来看，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯的讲话无疑是最受关注的。 首先，作为纽约联储主席，拥有永久投票权，且美联储缩减QE的操作便是有纽约联储来执行，威廉姆斯妥妥的算的上市美联储的第三号人物。 其次，他参加的会议是《美国国债市场会议》，不可避免的谈论到当前火热的国债市场和美联储的货币政策。 所以威廉姆斯的讲话绝对算得上是市场的重磅。交易员迫切想知道，在10月CPI爆表的情况下，他是否还会坚持之前的观点。一旦他出现“改口——鸽派转鹰派”，市场将对美联储加息预期重新定价。 周四 01:40 旧金山联储主席戴利参加美国国债市场会议的炉边谈话 05:05 芝加哥联储主席埃文斯谈论当前的经济形势及货币政策 22:30 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在跨大西洋防疫经济政策应对与复苏之","listText":"本周仍旧是繁忙的一周，每天都有需要关注的焦点事件。 周一 周一的风险时段在晚间，将有两件大事： 21:30 美国11月纽约联储制造业就业指数 此数据通常会对市场产生一定的影响，可以与每周公布的美国初请失业金人数相媲美 22:30 英国央行行长贝利就维持利率不变决定对议员讲话 英国央行举世皆惊维持利率不变的决议公布后，英国央行行长贝利的讲话将备受期待。贝利讲话后，市场将对英国央行的加息预期重新定价。也会连带改变对美联储加息的预期。 周二 21:30 美国10月零售销售（市场预期：1.1%；前值：0.7%） 该数据素有“恐怖数据”之称，是本周最重大的一个经济数据，也是本月改写市场走势的第三个经济数据。之前两个分别是：美国10月CPI和10月密西根大学的消费者信心指数（这两个数据均超越所有经济学家的预期）。本次数据可能存在很大的不确定性，在商品持续短缺的情况下，供应限制可能会给假日购物季造成干扰。 周三 22:10 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在2021年美国国债市场会议上发表线上主旨讲话 从周三开始美联储官员讲话将占据市场的焦点。从会议的议程来看，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯的讲话无疑是最受关注的。 首先，作为纽约联储主席，拥有永久投票权，且美联储缩减QE的操作便是有纽约联储来执行，威廉姆斯妥妥的算的上市美联储的第三号人物。 其次，他参加的会议是《美国国债市场会议》，不可避免的谈论到当前火热的国债市场和美联储的货币政策。 所以威廉姆斯的讲话绝对算得上是市场的重磅。交易员迫切想知道，在10月CPI爆表的情况下，他是否还会坚持之前的观点。一旦他出现“改口——鸽派转鹰派”，市场将对美联储加息预期重新定价。 周四 01:40 旧金山联储主席戴利参加美国国债市场会议的炉边谈话 05:05 芝加哥联储主席埃文斯谈论当前的经济形势及货币政策 22:30 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在跨大西洋防疫经济政策应对与复苏之","text":"本周仍旧是繁忙的一周，每天都有需要关注的焦点事件。 周一 周一的风险时段在晚间，将有两件大事： 21:30 美国11月纽约联储制造业就业指数 此数据通常会对市场产生一定的影响，可以与每周公布的美国初请失业金人数相媲美 22:30 英国央行行长贝利就维持利率不变决定对议员讲话 英国央行举世皆惊维持利率不变的决议公布后，英国央行行长贝利的讲话将备受期待。贝利讲话后，市场将对英国央行的加息预期重新定价。也会连带改变对美联储加息的预期。 周二 21:30 美国10月零售销售（市场预期：1.1%；前值：0.7%） 该数据素有“恐怖数据”之称，是本周最重大的一个经济数据，也是本月改写市场走势的第三个经济数据。之前两个分别是：美国10月CPI和10月密西根大学的消费者信心指数（这两个数据均超越所有经济学家的预期）。本次数据可能存在很大的不确定性，在商品持续短缺的情况下，供应限制可能会给假日购物季造成干扰。 周三 22:10 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在2021年美国国债市场会议上发表线上主旨讲话 从周三开始美联储官员讲话将占据市场的焦点。从会议的议程来看，纽约联储主席威廉姆斯的讲话无疑是最受关注的。 首先，作为纽约联储主席，拥有永久投票权，且美联储缩减QE的操作便是有纽约联储来执行，威廉姆斯妥妥的算的上市美联储的第三号人物。 其次，他参加的会议是《美国国债市场会议》，不可避免的谈论到当前火热的国债市场和美联储的货币政策。 所以威廉姆斯的讲话绝对算得上是市场的重磅。交易员迫切想知道，在10月CPI爆表的情况下，他是否还会坚持之前的观点。一旦他出现“改口——鸽派转鹰派”，市场将对美联储加息预期重新定价。 周四 01:40 旧金山联储主席戴利参加美国国债市场会议的炉边谈话 05:05 芝加哥联储主席埃文斯谈论当前的经济形势及货币政策 22:30 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在跨大西洋防疫经济政策应对与复苏之","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871815472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873419311,"gmtCreate":1636974344233,"gmtModify":1636974344354,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ahh go amd!!","listText":"Ahh go amd!!","text":"Ahh go amd!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873419311","repostId":"873287761","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":873287761,"gmtCreate":1636948480350,"gmtModify":1636957657847,"author":{"id":"3527667583497005","authorId":"3527667583497005","name":"期权异动观察","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667583497005","authorIdStr":"3527667583497005"},"themes":[],"title":"11.15期权异动观察，AMD反复异动","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$</a>&nbsp;在<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a> 的带动下，周五大麻股出现了集体异动，ACB公司评级获得了部分评级机构上调，后续走势看大麻bank整体走势。坎托菲茨杰拉德公司：维持Aurora Cannabis Inc(ACB.US)中性评级, 目标价由9.60美元调整至10.75美元。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a> 最近股价频繁异动，消息面趋于平静，股价依然处于强势状态。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">$动视暴雪(ATVI)$</a>财报不及预期暴跌之后，最近走稳开始向上拉升， 消息面平静。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTD\">$Trade Desk Inc.(TTD)$</a>最近也是二次异动，该股依然处于强势上攻，奥本海默在11.9日将公司的目标价从95美元上调至100美元。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 上周下跌15%，马斯克持续减持股份，短期走势看震荡，目测这个月马斯克就可以将手里的股份减持完毕。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/854739948\" target=\"_blank\">目前模拟账户也已经上线了期权交易功能，</a>","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ACB\">$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$</a>&nbsp;在<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDL\">$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$</a> 的带动下，周五大麻股出现了集体异动，ACB公司评级获得了部分评级机构上调，后续走势看大麻bank整体走势。坎托菲茨杰拉德公司：维持Aurora Cannabis Inc(ACB.US)中性评级, 目标价由9.60美元调整至10.75美元。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a> 最近股价频繁异动，消息面趋于平静，股价依然处于强势状态。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ATVI\">$动视暴雪(ATVI)$</a>财报不及预期暴跌之后，最近走稳开始向上拉升， 消息面平静。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TTD\">$Trade Desk Inc.(TTD)$</a>最近也是二次异动，该股依然处于强势上攻，奥本海默在11.9日将公司的目标价从95美元上调至100美元。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 上周下跌15%，马斯克持续减持股份，短期走势看震荡，目测这个月马斯克就可以将手里的股份减持完毕。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/854739948\" target=\"_blank\">目前模拟账户也已经上线了期权交易功能，</a>","text":"$奥罗拉大麻公司(ACB)$ 在$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$ 的带动下，周五大麻股出现了集体异动，ACB公司评级获得了部分评级机构上调，后续走势看大麻bank整体走势。坎托菲茨杰拉德公司：维持Aurora Cannabis Inc(ACB.US)中性评级, 目标价由9.60美元调整至10.75美元。 $AMD(AMD)$ 最近股价频繁异动，消息面趋于平静，股价依然处于强势状态。 $动视暴雪(ATVI)$财报不及预期暴跌之后，最近走稳开始向上拉升， 消息面平静。 $Trade Desk Inc.(TTD)$最近也是二次异动，该股依然处于强势上攻，奥本海默在11.9日将公司的目标价从95美元上调至100美元。 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 上周下跌15%，马斯克持续减持股份，短期走势看震荡，目测这个月马斯克就可以将手里的股份减持完毕。 目前模拟账户也已经上线了期权交易功能，","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/913d99ad732154469e49fa9467361f77","width":"799","height":"698"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873287761","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":780,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873410786,"gmtCreate":1636974307167,"gmtModify":1636974307296,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool! [Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"Cool! [Cool]&nbsp;","text":"Cool! [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873410786","repostId":"1177554505","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177554505","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636968673,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177554505?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-15 17:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For November 15, 2021<blockquote>2021年11月15日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177554505","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Wall Street expects Warner Music Group Corp. to report quarterly earnings at $0.15 per share on reve","content":"<p><div> Wall Street expects Warner Music Group Corp. to report quarterly earnings at $0.15 per share on revenue of $1.35 billion before the opening bell. Warner Music shares rose 2% to $49.30 in after-hours ...</p><p><blockquote><div>华尔街预计华纳音乐集团公司将在开盘前公布季度收益为每股0.15美元，营收为13.5亿美元。华纳音乐股价盘后上涨2%至49.30美元...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/24085033/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-15-2021\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/24085033/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-15-2021\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For November 15, 2021<blockquote>2021年11月15日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For November 15, 2021<blockquote>2021年11月15日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-15 17:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Wall Street expects Warner Music Group Corp. to report quarterly earnings at $0.15 per share on revenue of $1.35 billion before the opening bell. Warner Music shares rose 2% to $49.30 in after-hours ...</p><p><blockquote><div>华尔街预计华纳音乐集团公司将在开盘前公布季度收益为每股0.15美元，营收为13.5亿美元。华纳音乐股价盘后上涨2%至49.30美元...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/24085033/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-15-2021\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/24085033/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-15-2021\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/24085033/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-15-2021\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMG":"华纳音乐","VEV":"Vicinity Motor Corp.","REGN":"再生元制药公司","AAP":"Advance Auto Parts Inc","TSN":"泰森食品"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/24085033/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-15-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177554505","content_text":"Wall Street expects Warner Music Group Corp. to report quarterly earnings at $0.15 per share on revenue of $1.35 billion before the opening bell. Warner Music shares rose 2% to $49.30 in after-hours trading.\nVicinity Motor Corp. reported a Q3 net loss of $4.8 million, or $0.16 per share, versus a year-ago net loss of $1.3 million, or $0.05 per share. Its revenue fell 67% to $2.9 million. Vicinity Motor shares dipped 6.6% to $3.94 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts are expecting Advance Auto Parts, Inc. to have earned $2.87 per share on revenue of $2.58 billion in the recent quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets close. Advance Auto Parts shares gained 0.2% to $239.50 in after-hours trading.\nRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. reported that its board authorized a share buyback program of up to $3 billion. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals shares rose 0.8% to $636.25 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts expect Tyson Foods, Inc. to report quarterly earnings at $2.03 per share on revenue of $23.66 billion before the opening bell. Tyson Foods shares rose 0.4% to $81.52 in after-hours trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"REGN":0.9,"VEV":0.9,"TSN":0.9,"WMG":0.9,"AAP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873397230,"gmtCreate":1636855260146,"gmtModify":1636855260259,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873397230","repostId":"1193642637","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":917,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873056523,"gmtCreate":1636809659662,"gmtModify":1636809659784,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088592398251370","authorIdStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes good chance to enter","listText":"Yes good chance to enter","text":"Yes good chance to enter","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873056523","repostId":"870625332","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":870625332,"gmtCreate":1636614537222,"gmtModify":1636624728869,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8901a3026957857b6996ae953d595bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667618821228","authorIdStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"Tesla Drops Since Elon Musk Sells $5 Billion in Tesla Stocks","htmlText":"On Saturday, Mr Musk posted a Twitter poll asking his followers to vote on whether he should sell part of his stake in Tesla to meet his tax obligations. The poll attracted more than 3.5 million votes, with nearly 58% voting in favor of the share sale. Following the Twitter poll, shares of Tesla slumped more 15% over&nbsp;Monday and Tuesday, before rebounding more than 4% on Wednesday. According&nbsp;to&nbsp;BBC,&nbsp;Mr Musk's trust sold almost 3.6 million shares in Tesla, worth around $4bn. He also sold another 934,000 shares for about $1.1bn after exercising options to acquire nearly 2.2 million shares, according to filings with the US stock market regulator. Do you think this is a good opportunity to get on Musk’s boat?&nbsp;Why? Share&nbsp;your&nbsp;ideas&nbsp;with&nbsp;us!&nbsp; Your","listText":"On Saturday, Mr Musk posted a Twitter poll asking his followers to vote on whether he should sell part of his stake in Tesla to meet his tax obligations. The poll attracted more than 3.5 million votes, with nearly 58% voting in favor of the share sale. Following the Twitter poll, shares of Tesla slumped more 15% over&nbsp;Monday and Tuesday, before rebounding more than 4% on Wednesday. According&nbsp;to&nbsp;BBC,&nbsp;Mr Musk's trust sold almost 3.6 million shares in Tesla, worth around $4bn. He also sold another 934,000 shares for about $1.1bn after exercising options to acquire nearly 2.2 million shares, according to filings with the US stock market regulator. Do you think this is a good opportunity to get on Musk’s boat?&nbsp;Why? Share&nbsp;your&nbsp;ideas&nbsp;with&nbsp;us!&nbsp; Your","text":"On Saturday, Mr Musk posted a Twitter poll asking his followers to vote on whether he should sell part of his stake in Tesla to meet his tax obligations. The poll attracted more than 3.5 million votes, with nearly 58% voting in favor of the share sale. Following the Twitter poll, shares of Tesla slumped more 15% over Monday and Tuesday, before rebounding more than 4% on Wednesday. According to BBC, Mr Musk's trust sold almost 3.6 million shares in Tesla, worth around $4bn. He also sold another 934,000 shares for about $1.1bn after exercising options to acquire nearly 2.2 million shares, according to filings with the US stock market regulator. Do you think this is a good opportunity to get on Musk’s boat? Why? Share your ideas with us! Your","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90da0a35bafbb1da3f3157b0fde9cf3f","width":"900","height":"554"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870625332","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":873,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":832886511,"gmtCreate":1629606455333,"gmtModify":1631890161606,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls [Happy]&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls [Happy]&nbsp;","text":"Like pls [Happy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832886511","repostId":"1133515985","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":828342988,"gmtCreate":1633852900533,"gmtModify":1633852900533,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes looking forward to 2022 [Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"Yes looking forward to 2022 [Cool]&nbsp;","text":"Yes looking forward to 2022 [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828342988","repostId":"1194780749","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871746529,"gmtCreate":1637116419861,"gmtModify":1637116420145,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看好<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a> [Cool]","listText":"看好<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a> [Cool]","text":"看好$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$ [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871746529","repostId":"871376216","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":871376216,"gmtCreate":1637031174831,"gmtModify":1637032091693,"author":{"id":"3527667596890271","authorId":"3527667596890271","name":"Buy_Sell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f0ed79a338c758a22e0b4ea13bf9d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667596890271","idStr":"3527667596890271"},"themes":[],"title":"🔥【11月16日】新能源车股下跌，热门中概多数下滑，今天买点啥","htmlText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 11月16日讯，港股三大指数高开，恒指涨0.22%报25446点，国指涨0.16%报9100点，恒生科技指数涨0.17%报6612点。 盘面上，大型科技股普涨，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$网易-S(09999)$</a> 涨超1%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 小幅高开；生物科技股延续昨日强势，沛嘉医疗高开逾7%；近日走弱的内房股、物管股多数反弹，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06049\">$保利物业(06049)$</a> 涨超10%、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00884\">$旭辉控股集团(00884)$</a> 涨超4%；风电股、家电股、光伏股、餐饮股普涨。另一方面，教育股继续下跌，航空股、银行股、电力股普遍下跌。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00136\">$恒</a>","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 11月16日讯，港股三大指数高开，恒指涨0.22%报25446点，国指涨0.16%报9100点，恒生科技指数涨0.17%报6612点。 盘面上，大型科技股普涨，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$网易-S(09999)$</a> 涨超1%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09888\">$百度集团-SW(09888)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 小幅高开；生物科技股延续昨日强势，沛嘉医疗高开逾7%；近日走弱的内房股、物管股多数反弹，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06049\">$保利物业(06049)$</a> 涨超10%、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00884\">$旭辉控股集团(00884)$</a> 涨超4%；风电股、家电股、光伏股、餐饮股普涨。另一方面，教育股继续下跌，航空股、银行股、电力股普遍下跌。 <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00136\">$恒</a>","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 11月16日讯，港股三大指数高开，恒指涨0.22%报25446点，国指涨0.16%报9100点，恒生科技指数涨0.17%报6612点。 盘面上，大型科技股普涨，$腾讯控股(00700)$ 、$网易-S(09999)$ 涨超1%，$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 、$百度集团-SW(09888)$ 、$小米集团-W(01810)$ 小幅高开；生物科技股延续昨日强势，沛嘉医疗高开逾7%；近日走弱的内房股、物管股多数反弹，$保利物业(06049)$ 涨超10%、$旭辉控股集团(00884)$ 涨超4%；风电股、家电股、光伏股、餐饮股普涨。另一方面，教育股继续下跌，航空股、银行股、电力股普遍下跌。 $恒","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c98f00234c749fa3416e4f28edd5955b","width":"212","height":"238"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871376216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":896342772,"gmtCreate":1628558740196,"gmtModify":1633746182308,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can give me a like pls? [Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"Can give me a like pls? [Smile]&nbsp;","text":"Can give me a like pls? [Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896342772","repostId":"1196813173","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":290,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":872978393,"gmtCreate":1637409698412,"gmtModify":1637409698544,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can consider <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>","listText":"Can consider <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\">$SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$</a>","text":"Can consider $Alibaba(BABA)$ and $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872978393","repostId":"878368285","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":878368285,"gmtCreate":1637150760231,"gmtModify":1744960756147,"author":{"id":"3585780691540522","authorId":"3585780691540522","name":"FundMall","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3585780691540522","idStr":"3585780691540522"},"themes":[],"title":"If I have $1000, which funds should I buy?","htmlText":"Market momentum has slowed down significantly in contrast to the high flying 1H21. Since then, investors are struggling with investing in the prevailing macroenvironment. Today, we will break down the market situations and help investors select potential winners heading into 2022. Equity Market Recap In the first half of the year, market sentiments was largely positive due to the expectation that a post-pandemic global reopening is near. However, with the resurgence of the delta variant in the second half, optimism has wavered. Supply shortages have also sent prices of raw materials, in particular energy related cost to record highs, threatening a looming inflationary pressure which is considered detrimental to the price of long duration assets, more specifically growth equities. Nonethele","listText":"Market momentum has slowed down significantly in contrast to the high flying 1H21. Since then, investors are struggling with investing in the prevailing macroenvironment. Today, we will break down the market situations and help investors select potential winners heading into 2022. Equity Market Recap In the first half of the year, market sentiments was largely positive due to the expectation that a post-pandemic global reopening is near. However, with the resurgence of the delta variant in the second half, optimism has wavered. Supply shortages have also sent prices of raw materials, in particular energy related cost to record highs, threatening a looming inflationary pressure which is considered detrimental to the price of long duration assets, more specifically growth equities. Nonethele","text":"Market momentum has slowed down significantly in contrast to the high flying 1H21. Since then, investors are struggling with investing in the prevailing macroenvironment. Today, we will break down the market situations and help investors select potential winners heading into 2022. Equity Market Recap In the first half of the year, market sentiments was largely positive due to the expectation that a post-pandemic global reopening is near. However, with the resurgence of the delta variant in the second half, optimism has wavered. Supply shortages have also sent prices of raw materials, in particular energy related cost to record highs, threatening a looming inflationary pressure which is considered detrimental to the price of long duration assets, more specifically growth equities. Nonethele","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f7e39ebe59d556f07dfeb2ac8e31711","width":"688","height":"431"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8ce72fa19e57760fda3d8526fea7ef6","width":"688","height":"370"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4163197fcd15b9387b544f5ddcfb1d5","width":"688","height":"341"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878368285","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":9,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2310,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879675339,"gmtCreate":1636724729877,"gmtModify":1636724729965,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cool]&nbsp;","text":"[Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879675339","repostId":"2182094779","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":644,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":856950488,"gmtCreate":1635144488602,"gmtModify":1635144551217,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Holding [Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"Holding [Cool]&nbsp;","text":"Holding [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856950488","repostId":"1167039476","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":417,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853858047,"gmtCreate":1634791543305,"gmtModify":1634791543466,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853858047","repostId":"1182684267","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182684267","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634788845,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182684267?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-21 12:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investing in the Cloud: Consider Cloudflare and Digital Ocean<blockquote>投资云：考虑Cloudflare和Digital Ocean</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182684267","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Cloud-software growth stocks have been a bright spot in an uncertain market. Investors might look cl","content":"<p>Cloud-software growth stocks have been a bright spot in an uncertain market. Investors might look closely at Cloudflare and Digital Ocean.</p><p><blockquote>云软件成长型股票一直是不确定市场中的一个亮点。投资者可能会密切关注Cloudflare和Digital Ocean。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud-software growth stocks have been a bright spot in an uncertain market.</p><p><blockquote>云软件成长型股票一直是不确定市场中的一个亮点。</blockquote></p><p> Two in particular -- Cloudflare&nbsp;and DigitalOcean&nbsp;-- continue to attract buyers and could be in for even more upside.</p><p><blockquote>尤其是Cloudflare和DigitalOcean这两个公司继续吸引买家，并且可能会有更大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Given secular growth trends like businesses moving their workloads to the cloud and increasing demand for edge computing, cloud computing could be one of the tech sector's most lucrative areas during the next decade,</p><p><blockquote>鉴于企业将工作负载转移到云以及对边缘计算需求不断增加等长期增长趋势，云计算可能是未来十年科技行业最赚钱的领域之一，</blockquote></p><p> There’s a lot for investors to like about&nbsp;Cloudflare and DigitalOcean.&nbsp;Let’s take a deeper look at what makes them stand out.</p><p><blockquote>投资者喜欢Cloudflare和DigitalOcean的很多地方。让我们更深入地了解是什么让它们脱颖而出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare</b></blockquote></p><p> After a late September decline, the stock of Cloudflare, which might just be the market leader in the cloud software space,&nbsp;has essentially gone parabolic.</p><p><blockquote>经过9月下旬的下跌后，Cloudflare的股价（可能只是云软件领域的市场领导者）基本上已经呈抛物线状。</blockquote></p><p> The San Francisco company, a global cloud-services provider offering products that can strengthen network security and improve the performance of internet applications, has delivered revenue at a compounded annual growth rate of 50% from fiscal 2016 through fiscal 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于旧金山的公司是一家全球云服务提供商，提供可以加强网络安全和提高互联网应用程序性能的产品，从2016财年到2020财年，其收入的复合年增长率为50%。</blockquote></p><p> What really helps Cloudflare stand out in the crowded software growth space is how the company uses edge computing.</p><p><blockquote>真正帮助Cloudflare在拥挤的软件增长领域脱颖而出的是该公司如何使用边缘计算。</blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare defines this as “a networking philosophy focused on bringing computing as close to the source of data as possible in order to reduce latency and bandwidth use.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare将其定义为“一种网络理念，专注于使计算尽可能靠近数据源，以减少延迟和带宽使用。</blockquote></p><p> \"In simpler terms, edge computing means running fewer processes in the cloud and moving those processes to local places, such as on a user’s computer, an [internet of things] device, or an edge server.”</p><p><blockquote>“简单来说，边缘计算意味着在云中运行更少的进程，并将这些进程移动到本地，例如在用户的计算机、[物联网]设备或边缘服务器上。”</blockquote></p><p> Companies can take advantage of Cloudflare’s products and services without having to add any new hardware or update code. That means it’s one of the most convenient ways to instantly improve the performance of their internet applications.</p><p><blockquote>公司无需添加任何新硬件或更新代码即可利用Cloudflare的产品和服务。这意味着这是立即提高互联网应用程序性能的最便捷方法之一。</blockquote></p><p> Websites powered by Cloudflare have all web traffic sent through the company’s intelligent global network. The company claims to block an average of 87 billion cyber threats each day.</p><p><blockquote>由Cloudflare提供支持的网站的所有web流量都通过该公司的智能全球网络发送。该公司声称平均每天阻止870亿次网络威胁。</blockquote></p><p> About a fifth (19%) of the Fortune 1000 are currently using Cloudflare to power their internet requests.</p><p><blockquote>大约五分之一（19%）的财富1000强企业目前正在使用Cloudflare来支持他们的互联网请求。</blockquote></p><p> While the company is still working toward profitability, the recent price action tells investors that institutional investors are scooping up the shares.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司仍在努力实现盈利，但最近的价格走势告诉投资者，机构投资者正在买入股票。</blockquote></p><p> The stock has more than doubled this year and leaped 60% this month. Cloudflare rose 7.8% on Monday after&nbsp;it unveiled a collaboration with Microsoft&nbsp;and other search-engine providers to provide more timely and relevant search results.</p><p><blockquote>该股今年上涨了一倍多，本月上涨了60%。Cloudflare周一上涨7.8%，此前该公司宣布与微软和其他搜索引擎提供商合作，提供更及时、更相关的搜索结果。</blockquote></p><p> After the rally, investors interested in adding exposure to one of the top cloud software names should keep an eye on Cloudflare for pullbacks or consolidation.</p><p><blockquote>反弹后，有兴趣增加对顶级云软件公司之一的投资的投资者应密切关注Cloudflare的回调或整合。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DigitalOcean</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数字海洋</b></blockquote></p><p> Digital Ocean is another cloud software stock that's more than doubled -- this time since making its public debut in April.</p><p><blockquote>Digital Ocean是另一只自4月份首次公开亮相以来股价上涨了一倍多的云软件股票。</blockquote></p><p> The New York company has a rapidly growing customer base in a niche area of the cloud industry.</p><p><blockquote>这家纽约公司在云行业的利基领域拥有快速增长的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Unlike massive cloud platform providers like Amazon&nbsp;Web Services and Microsoft Azure, DigitalOcean focuses on providing infrastructure and platform tools for small and medium-sized businesses, an underserved area of the market.</p><p><blockquote>与Amazon Web Services和微软Azure等大型云平台提供商不同，DigitalOcean专注于为中小型企业提供基础设施和平台工具，这是市场上服务不足的领域。</blockquote></p><p> These smaller companies don’t necessarily need all the expensive and complicated bells and whistles the larger providers offer.</p><p><blockquote>这些较小的公司不一定需要较大供应商提供的所有昂贵而复杂的花哨功能。</blockquote></p><p> Digital Ocean instead offers simplified cloud-based products -- including droplets, databases and app platforms -- at reasonable and transparent prices,&nbsp;which are a huge draw for almost any business today.</p><p><blockquote>相反，Digital Ocean以合理透明的价格提供简化的基于云的产品，包括droplets、数据库和应用平台，这对当今几乎所有企业都具有巨大的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> In Q2, DigitalOcean surpassed 600,000 total customers, up 9% year over year. Companies are sticking with Digital Ocean's offerings, given that the company’s&nbsp;net dollar retention rate&nbsp;more than doubled (up 113%) during the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，DigitalOcean的客户总数超过60万，同比增长9%。鉴于该公司第二季度的净美元保留率增加了一倍多（增长113%），公司仍坚持使用Digital Ocean的产品。</blockquote></p><p> Also worth noting: DigitalOcean's revenue growth is accelerating while its net losses are narrowing.</p><p><blockquote>另外值得注意的是：DigitalOcean的收入增长正在加速，而净亏损正在收窄。</blockquote></p><p> With annual recurring revenue growing 25% or more over the past four quarters and recently boosted full-year guidance, investors would do well to research and review DigitalOcean.</p><p><blockquote>随着过去四个季度的年度经常性收入增长25%或更多，并且最近提高了全年指引，投资者最好研究和审查DigitalOcean。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investing in the Cloud: Consider Cloudflare and Digital Ocean<blockquote>投资云：考虑Cloudflare和Digital Ocean</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvesting in the Cloud: Consider Cloudflare and Digital Ocean<blockquote>投资云：考虑Cloudflare和Digital Ocean</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-21 12:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Cloud-software growth stocks have been a bright spot in an uncertain market. Investors might look closely at Cloudflare and Digital Ocean.</p><p><blockquote>云软件成长型股票一直是不确定市场中的一个亮点。投资者可能会密切关注Cloudflare和Digital Ocean。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud-software growth stocks have been a bright spot in an uncertain market.</p><p><blockquote>云软件成长型股票一直是不确定市场中的一个亮点。</blockquote></p><p> Two in particular -- Cloudflare&nbsp;and DigitalOcean&nbsp;-- continue to attract buyers and could be in for even more upside.</p><p><blockquote>尤其是Cloudflare和DigitalOcean这两个公司继续吸引买家，并且可能会有更大的上涨空间。</blockquote></p><p> Given secular growth trends like businesses moving their workloads to the cloud and increasing demand for edge computing, cloud computing could be one of the tech sector's most lucrative areas during the next decade,</p><p><blockquote>鉴于企业将工作负载转移到云以及对边缘计算需求不断增加等长期增长趋势，云计算可能是未来十年科技行业最赚钱的领域之一，</blockquote></p><p> There’s a lot for investors to like about&nbsp;Cloudflare and DigitalOcean.&nbsp;Let’s take a deeper look at what makes them stand out.</p><p><blockquote>投资者喜欢Cloudflare和DigitalOcean的很多地方。让我们更深入地了解是什么让它们脱颖而出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare</b></blockquote></p><p> After a late September decline, the stock of Cloudflare, which might just be the market leader in the cloud software space,&nbsp;has essentially gone parabolic.</p><p><blockquote>经过9月下旬的下跌后，Cloudflare的股价（可能只是云软件领域的市场领导者）基本上已经呈抛物线状。</blockquote></p><p> The San Francisco company, a global cloud-services provider offering products that can strengthen network security and improve the performance of internet applications, has delivered revenue at a compounded annual growth rate of 50% from fiscal 2016 through fiscal 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这家总部位于旧金山的公司是一家全球云服务提供商，提供可以加强网络安全和提高互联网应用程序性能的产品，从2016财年到2020财年，其收入的复合年增长率为50%。</blockquote></p><p> What really helps Cloudflare stand out in the crowded software growth space is how the company uses edge computing.</p><p><blockquote>真正帮助Cloudflare在拥挤的软件增长领域脱颖而出的是该公司如何使用边缘计算。</blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare defines this as “a networking philosophy focused on bringing computing as close to the source of data as possible in order to reduce latency and bandwidth use.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare将其定义为“一种网络理念，专注于使计算尽可能靠近数据源，以减少延迟和带宽使用。</blockquote></p><p> \"In simpler terms, edge computing means running fewer processes in the cloud and moving those processes to local places, such as on a user’s computer, an [internet of things] device, or an edge server.”</p><p><blockquote>“简单来说，边缘计算意味着在云中运行更少的进程，并将这些进程移动到本地，例如在用户的计算机、[物联网]设备或边缘服务器上。”</blockquote></p><p> Companies can take advantage of Cloudflare’s products and services without having to add any new hardware or update code. That means it’s one of the most convenient ways to instantly improve the performance of their internet applications.</p><p><blockquote>公司无需添加任何新硬件或更新代码即可利用Cloudflare的产品和服务。这意味着这是立即提高互联网应用程序性能的最便捷方法之一。</blockquote></p><p> Websites powered by Cloudflare have all web traffic sent through the company’s intelligent global network. The company claims to block an average of 87 billion cyber threats each day.</p><p><blockquote>由Cloudflare提供支持的网站的所有web流量都通过该公司的智能全球网络发送。该公司声称平均每天阻止870亿次网络威胁。</blockquote></p><p> About a fifth (19%) of the Fortune 1000 are currently using Cloudflare to power their internet requests.</p><p><blockquote>大约五分之一（19%）的财富1000强企业目前正在使用Cloudflare来支持他们的互联网请求。</blockquote></p><p> While the company is still working toward profitability, the recent price action tells investors that institutional investors are scooping up the shares.</p><p><blockquote>虽然该公司仍在努力实现盈利，但最近的价格走势告诉投资者，机构投资者正在买入股票。</blockquote></p><p> The stock has more than doubled this year and leaped 60% this month. Cloudflare rose 7.8% on Monday after&nbsp;it unveiled a collaboration with Microsoft&nbsp;and other search-engine providers to provide more timely and relevant search results.</p><p><blockquote>该股今年上涨了一倍多，本月上涨了60%。Cloudflare周一上涨7.8%，此前该公司宣布与微软和其他搜索引擎提供商合作，提供更及时、更相关的搜索结果。</blockquote></p><p> After the rally, investors interested in adding exposure to one of the top cloud software names should keep an eye on Cloudflare for pullbacks or consolidation.</p><p><blockquote>反弹后，有兴趣增加对顶级云软件公司之一的投资的投资者应密切关注Cloudflare的回调或整合。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DigitalOcean</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数字海洋</b></blockquote></p><p> Digital Ocean is another cloud software stock that's more than doubled -- this time since making its public debut in April.</p><p><blockquote>Digital Ocean是另一只自4月份首次公开亮相以来股价上涨了一倍多的云软件股票。</blockquote></p><p> The New York company has a rapidly growing customer base in a niche area of the cloud industry.</p><p><blockquote>这家纽约公司在云行业的利基领域拥有快速增长的客户群。</blockquote></p><p> Unlike massive cloud platform providers like Amazon&nbsp;Web Services and Microsoft Azure, DigitalOcean focuses on providing infrastructure and platform tools for small and medium-sized businesses, an underserved area of the market.</p><p><blockquote>与Amazon Web Services和微软Azure等大型云平台提供商不同，DigitalOcean专注于为中小型企业提供基础设施和平台工具，这是市场上服务不足的领域。</blockquote></p><p> These smaller companies don’t necessarily need all the expensive and complicated bells and whistles the larger providers offer.</p><p><blockquote>这些较小的公司不一定需要较大供应商提供的所有昂贵而复杂的花哨功能。</blockquote></p><p> Digital Ocean instead offers simplified cloud-based products -- including droplets, databases and app platforms -- at reasonable and transparent prices,&nbsp;which are a huge draw for almost any business today.</p><p><blockquote>相反，Digital Ocean以合理透明的价格提供简化的基于云的产品，包括droplets、数据库和应用平台，这对当今几乎所有企业都具有巨大的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> In Q2, DigitalOcean surpassed 600,000 total customers, up 9% year over year. Companies are sticking with Digital Ocean's offerings, given that the company’s&nbsp;net dollar retention rate&nbsp;more than doubled (up 113%) during the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，DigitalOcean的客户总数超过60万，同比增长9%。鉴于该公司第二季度的净美元保留率增加了一倍多（增长113%），公司仍坚持使用Digital Ocean的产品。</blockquote></p><p> Also worth noting: DigitalOcean's revenue growth is accelerating while its net losses are narrowing.</p><p><blockquote>另外值得注意的是：DigitalOcean的收入增长正在加速，而净亏损正在收窄。</blockquote></p><p> With annual recurring revenue growing 25% or more over the past four quarters and recently boosted full-year guidance, investors would do well to research and review DigitalOcean.</p><p><blockquote>随着过去四个季度的年度经常性收入增长25%或更多，并且最近提高了全年指引，投资者最好研究和审查DigitalOcean。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/investing-in-the-cloud-consider-cloudflare-digitalocean\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NET":"Cloudflare, Inc.","DOCN":"DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/investing-in-the-cloud-consider-cloudflare-digitalocean","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182684267","content_text":"Cloud-software growth stocks have been a bright spot in an uncertain market. Investors might look closely at Cloudflare and Digital Ocean.\nCloud-software growth stocks have been a bright spot in an uncertain market.\nTwo in particular -- Cloudflare and DigitalOcean -- continue to attract buyers and could be in for even more upside.\nGiven secular growth trends like businesses moving their workloads to the cloud and increasing demand for edge computing, cloud computing could be one of the tech sector's most lucrative areas during the next decade,\nThere’s a lot for investors to like about Cloudflare and DigitalOcean. Let’s take a deeper look at what makes them stand out.\nCloudflare\nAfter a late September decline, the stock of Cloudflare, which might just be the market leader in the cloud software space, has essentially gone parabolic.\nThe San Francisco company, a global cloud-services provider offering products that can strengthen network security and improve the performance of internet applications, has delivered revenue at a compounded annual growth rate of 50% from fiscal 2016 through fiscal 2020.\nWhat really helps Cloudflare stand out in the crowded software growth space is how the company uses edge computing.\nCloudflare defines this as “a networking philosophy focused on bringing computing as close to the source of data as possible in order to reduce latency and bandwidth use.\n\"In simpler terms, edge computing means running fewer processes in the cloud and moving those processes to local places, such as on a user’s computer, an [internet of things] device, or an edge server.”\nCompanies can take advantage of Cloudflare’s products and services without having to add any new hardware or update code. That means it’s one of the most convenient ways to instantly improve the performance of their internet applications.\nWebsites powered by Cloudflare have all web traffic sent through the company’s intelligent global network. The company claims to block an average of 87 billion cyber threats each day.\nAbout a fifth (19%) of the Fortune 1000 are currently using Cloudflare to power their internet requests.\nWhile the company is still working toward profitability, the recent price action tells investors that institutional investors are scooping up the shares.\nThe stock has more than doubled this year and leaped 60% this month. Cloudflare rose 7.8% on Monday after it unveiled a collaboration with Microsoft and other search-engine providers to provide more timely and relevant search results.\nAfter the rally, investors interested in adding exposure to one of the top cloud software names should keep an eye on Cloudflare for pullbacks or consolidation.\nDigitalOcean\nDigital Ocean is another cloud software stock that's more than doubled -- this time since making its public debut in April.\nThe New York company has a rapidly growing customer base in a niche area of the cloud industry.\nUnlike massive cloud platform providers like Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure, DigitalOcean focuses on providing infrastructure and platform tools for small and medium-sized businesses, an underserved area of the market.\nThese smaller companies don’t necessarily need all the expensive and complicated bells and whistles the larger providers offer.\nDigital Ocean instead offers simplified cloud-based products -- including droplets, databases and app platforms -- at reasonable and transparent prices, which are a huge draw for almost any business today.\nIn Q2, DigitalOcean surpassed 600,000 total customers, up 9% year over year. Companies are sticking with Digital Ocean's offerings, given that the company’s net dollar retention rate more than doubled (up 113%) during the second quarter.\nAlso worth noting: DigitalOcean's revenue growth is accelerating while its net losses are narrowing.\nWith annual recurring revenue growing 25% or more over the past four quarters and recently boosted full-year guidance, investors would do well to research and review DigitalOcean.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NET":0.9,"DOCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608836726,"gmtCreate":1638676869584,"gmtModify":1638676869706,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Cry]&nbsp;","listText":"[Cry]&nbsp;","text":"[Cry]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608836726","repostId":"1140678193","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":837028006,"gmtCreate":1629849059405,"gmtModify":1631890161594,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yay [Grin]&nbsp;","listText":"Yay [Grin]&nbsp;","text":"Yay [Grin]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837028006","repostId":"2162087564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831516317,"gmtCreate":1629334668339,"gmtModify":1633685622363,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls [Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls [Smile]&nbsp;","text":"Like pls [Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831516317","repostId":"1129521206","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":384,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":607016325,"gmtCreate":1639456726258,"gmtModify":1639456726415,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good read thanks&nbsp;[Great]&nbsp;","listText":"Good read thanks&nbsp;[Great]&nbsp;","text":"Good read thanks [Great]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607016325","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4012,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873410786,"gmtCreate":1636974307167,"gmtModify":1636974307296,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cool! [Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"Cool! [Cool]&nbsp;","text":"Cool! [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873410786","repostId":"1177554505","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1177554505","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636968673,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177554505?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-15 17:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For November 15, 2021<blockquote>2021年11月15日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177554505","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Wall Street expects Warner Music Group Corp. to report quarterly earnings at $0.15 per share on reve","content":"<p><div> Wall Street expects Warner Music Group Corp. to report quarterly earnings at $0.15 per share on revenue of $1.35 billion before the opening bell. Warner Music shares rose 2% to $49.30 in after-hours ...</p><p><blockquote><div>华尔街预计华纳音乐集团公司将在开盘前公布季度收益为每股0.15美元，营收为13.5亿美元。华纳音乐股价盘后上涨2%至49.30美元...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/24085033/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-15-2021\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/24085033/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-15-2021\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For November 15, 2021<blockquote>2021年11月15日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For November 15, 2021<blockquote>2021年11月15日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-15 17:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Wall Street expects Warner Music Group Corp. to report quarterly earnings at $0.15 per share on revenue of $1.35 billion before the opening bell. Warner Music shares rose 2% to $49.30 in after-hours ...</p><p><blockquote><div>华尔街预计华纳音乐集团公司将在开盘前公布季度收益为每股0.15美元，营收为13.5亿美元。华纳音乐股价盘后上涨2%至49.30美元...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/24085033/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-15-2021\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/24085033/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-15-2021\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/24085033/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-15-2021\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WMG":"华纳音乐","VEV":"Vicinity Motor Corp.","REGN":"再生元制药公司","AAP":"Advance Auto Parts Inc","TSN":"泰森食品"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/earnings/21/11/24085033/5-stocks-to-watch-for-november-15-2021","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177554505","content_text":"Wall Street expects Warner Music Group Corp. to report quarterly earnings at $0.15 per share on revenue of $1.35 billion before the opening bell. Warner Music shares rose 2% to $49.30 in after-hours trading.\nVicinity Motor Corp. reported a Q3 net loss of $4.8 million, or $0.16 per share, versus a year-ago net loss of $1.3 million, or $0.05 per share. Its revenue fell 67% to $2.9 million. Vicinity Motor shares dipped 6.6% to $3.94 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts are expecting Advance Auto Parts, Inc. to have earned $2.87 per share on revenue of $2.58 billion in the recent quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets close. Advance Auto Parts shares gained 0.2% to $239.50 in after-hours trading.\nRegeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. reported that its board authorized a share buyback program of up to $3 billion. Regeneron Pharmaceuticals shares rose 0.8% to $636.25 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts expect Tyson Foods, Inc. to report quarterly earnings at $2.03 per share on revenue of $23.66 billion before the opening bell. Tyson Foods shares rose 0.4% to $81.52 in after-hours trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"REGN":0.9,"VEV":0.9,"TSN":0.9,"WMG":0.9,"AAP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":832083435,"gmtCreate":1629540319027,"gmtModify":1633684118303,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good to know","listText":"Good to know","text":"Good to know","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832083435","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更加可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看那些。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更加可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&amp;Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊","QCOM":"高通","ON":"安森美半导体","ASML":"阿斯麦","GOOG":"谷歌","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","SSNLF":"三星电子","AAPL":"苹果","TSM":"台积电","CDNS":"铿腾电子","GOOGL":"谷歌A","NVDA":"英伟达","SNPS":"新思科技"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSM":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"ON":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833983908,"gmtCreate":1629197175604,"gmtModify":1633686661008,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good, can i have a like pls? Thanks [Love&nbsp;you]&nbsp;","listText":"Good, can i have a like pls? Thanks [Love&nbsp;you]&nbsp;","text":"Good, can i have a like pls? Thanks [Love you]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833983908","repostId":"2160620348","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":337,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172269008,"gmtCreate":1626962805004,"gmtModify":1633769330584,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow impressive&nbsp;","listText":"Wow impressive&nbsp;","text":"Wow impressive","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172269008","repostId":"2153787206","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":875225707,"gmtCreate":1637659983109,"gmtModify":1637659983202,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes! Go <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a>","listText":"Yes! Go <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a>","text":"Yes! Go $Micron Technology(MU)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875225707","repostId":"872905950","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":872905950,"gmtCreate":1637383951636,"gmtModify":1637411029223,"author":{"id":"3566982670449095","authorId":"3566982670449095","name":"wywy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76ed86374fc7b16c12094c45ea30787c","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566982670449095","idStr":"3566982670449095"},"themes":[],"title":"Micron on the way up. Go Go Micron","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a>Micron Technology share is up about 8% on the last trading day for this week. It was announced that MediaTek Inc. has validated Micron’s low-power double data rate 5X (LPDDR5X) DRAM for MediaTek’s new Dimensity 9000 5G flagship chipset for smartphones. Micron is the first semiconductor company to be sample and validate this fastest, most advanced mobile memory in the industry and has shipped the first batch of samples of LPDDR5X built on its first-to-market 1α (1-alpha) node. Designed for high-end and flagship smartphones, Micron’s LPDDR5X allows the smartphone ecosystem to unlock the next wave of data-intensive applications powered by artificial intelligence (AI) and 5G innovation.This really positive news. More application need","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">$Micron Technology(MU)$</a>Micron Technology share is up about 8% on the last trading day for this week. It was announced that MediaTek Inc. has validated Micron’s low-power double data rate 5X (LPDDR5X) DRAM for MediaTek’s new Dimensity 9000 5G flagship chipset for smartphones. Micron is the first semiconductor company to be sample and validate this fastest, most advanced mobile memory in the industry and has shipped the first batch of samples of LPDDR5X built on its first-to-market 1α (1-alpha) node. Designed for high-end and flagship smartphones, Micron’s LPDDR5X allows the smartphone ecosystem to unlock the next wave of data-intensive applications powered by artificial intelligence (AI) and 5G innovation.This really positive news. More application need","text":"$Micron Technology(MU)$Micron Technology share is up about 8% on the last trading day for this week. It was announced that MediaTek Inc. has validated Micron’s low-power double data rate 5X (LPDDR5X) DRAM for MediaTek’s new Dimensity 9000 5G flagship chipset for smartphones. Micron is the first semiconductor company to be sample and validate this fastest, most advanced mobile memory in the industry and has shipped the first batch of samples of LPDDR5X built on its first-to-market 1α (1-alpha) node. Designed for high-end and flagship smartphones, Micron’s LPDDR5X allows the smartphone ecosystem to unlock the next wave of data-intensive applications powered by artificial intelligence (AI) and 5G innovation.This really positive news. More application need","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/476a86c41ab42c8ec21433d126e52aa8","width":"1080","height":"4259"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872905950","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2557,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870277135,"gmtCreate":1636628824427,"gmtModify":1636628824689,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Missed the chance to buy <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a> when they were lower, Regret haha[Shy]","listText":"Missed the chance to buy <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a> when they were lower, Regret haha[Shy]","text":"Missed the chance to buy $AMD(AMD)$ when they were lower, Regret haha[Shy]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870277135","repostId":"844281402","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":844281402,"gmtCreate":1636430722103,"gmtModify":1636446487321,"author":{"id":"3525211030809219","authorId":"3525211030809219","name":"llynnnie","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c0ac9a31fb9133cf0a1a6610aa1dbae","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3525211030809219","idStr":"3525211030809219"},"themes":[],"title":"AMD Stock Surged to a New High by a Big Deal with Meta","htmlText":"The&nbsp;reasons&nbsp;why&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a> stock&nbsp;surged&nbsp;to&nbsp;a&nbsp;new&nbsp;high: Chipmaker&nbsp;AMD&nbsp;just&nbsp;scored&nbsp;a&nbsp;big&nbsp;deal&nbsp;with&nbsp;Meta AMD's first Zen 4 CPUs include a 128-core chip built for the cloud Advanced Micro Devices AMD&nbsp;is about to enter the metaverse.&nbsp;According&nbsp;to&nbsp;Yahoo&nbsp;Finance,&nbsp;\"The chip giant said its EPYC chips were selected by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$</a> to help power its data centers at its virtual&nbsp;Accelerated Data Center Premiere&nbsp;event Monday. AMD explained the two companies worked together to develop a high-performance, power-efficient processor based on the company's 3rd Generation EPYC processor.\" The company's","listText":"The&nbsp;reasons&nbsp;why&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a> stock&nbsp;surged&nbsp;to&nbsp;a&nbsp;new&nbsp;high: Chipmaker&nbsp;AMD&nbsp;just&nbsp;scored&nbsp;a&nbsp;big&nbsp;deal&nbsp;with&nbsp;Meta AMD's first Zen 4 CPUs include a 128-core chip built for the cloud Advanced Micro Devices AMD&nbsp;is about to enter the metaverse.&nbsp;According&nbsp;to&nbsp;Yahoo&nbsp;Finance,&nbsp;\"The chip giant said its EPYC chips were selected by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$</a> to help power its data centers at its virtual&nbsp;Accelerated Data Center Premiere&nbsp;event Monday. AMD explained the two companies worked together to develop a high-performance, power-efficient processor based on the company's 3rd Generation EPYC processor.\" The company's","text":"The reasons why $AMD(AMD)$ stock surged to a new high: Chipmaker AMD just scored a big deal with Meta AMD's first Zen 4 CPUs include a 128-core chip built for the cloud Advanced Micro Devices AMD is about to enter the metaverse. According to Yahoo Finance, \"The chip giant said its EPYC chips were selected by $Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$ to help power its data centers at its virtual Accelerated Data Center Premiere event Monday. AMD explained the two companies worked together to develop a high-performance, power-efficient processor based on the company's 3rd Generation EPYC processor.\" The company's","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10be60b5fc072d752be9e9bde9351035","width":"768","height":"624"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844281402","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827139646,"gmtCreate":1634431403700,"gmtModify":1634431403860,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow [Cool]&nbsp;","listText":"Wow [Cool]&nbsp;","text":"Wow [Cool]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827139646","repostId":"2175112192","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820056242,"gmtCreate":1633330196790,"gmtModify":1633332777534,"author":{"id":"4088592398251370","authorId":"4088592398251370","name":"Robbie30","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65644b0a397f03b0db5e3133f39cc1c9","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088592398251370","idStr":"4088592398251370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42R.SI\">$JUMBO GROUP LIMITED(42R.SI)$</a>Go jumbo!! [Grin]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42R.SI\">$JUMBO GROUP LIMITED(42R.SI)$</a>Go jumbo!! [Grin]&nbsp;","text":"$JUMBO GROUP LIMITED(42R.SI)$Go jumbo!! [Grin]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d719e68b09a252f1a323fe8025209aa9","width":"828","height":"1632"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820056242","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}