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Rabbani

Rabbani

The Black Rose

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2021-07-31

Like for like?

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2021-08-01

Like

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2021-08-05

Like pls

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2021-07-15

Help like pls and i'll return the favour on this comment

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2021-07-10

Help to like pls

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2021-08-01

Like for like

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2021-07-31

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Jim Cramer: Robinhood's IPO Debacle Shows How Little Has Changed Over the Decades<blockquote>吉姆·克莱默：Robinhood的IPO惨败表明几十年来变化很小</blockquote>

2021-07-10

Like please thank you

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2021-07-10

Help to like pls

A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>

2021-07-10

Help me like pls

Taiwan Semiconductor Vs. United Microelectronics Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>台积电与联合微电子股票：哪个更值得购买？</blockquote>

2021-08-01

$Cisco(CSCO)$Ayee

2021-07-31

$Coca-Cola(KO)$✌️

2021-08-05

Ayeee

2021-07-31

Cocacola

2021-07-10

Help me to like pls

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2021-07-09

That's interesting

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2021-07-09

Like pls

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2021-07-09

Wow

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like?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802139550","repostId":"1152039134","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152039134","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627689014,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152039134?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 07:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jim Cramer: Robinhood's IPO Debacle Shows How Little Has Changed Over the Decades<blockquote>吉姆·克莱默：Robinhood的IPO惨败表明几十年来变化很小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152039134","media":"The Street","summary":"Take it from a guy who knows, the process is really flawed.\n\nWhat should Robinhood (HOOD) -Get Repor","content":"<p>  Take it from a guy who knows, the process is really flawed.  What should Robinhood&nbsp;(<b>HOOD</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;have done to avoid the IPO debacle?</p><p><blockquote>听一个知道的人说，这个过程真的有缺陷。罗宾汉应该做什么（<b>发动机罩</b>)-获取报告为避免IPO失败做了哪些工作？</blockquote></p><p> I can't speak to what happened on Thursday, who was in charge, who argued for what.</p><p><blockquote>我不能说周四发生了什么，谁是负责人，谁为什么辩护。</blockquote></p><p> I can only tell you what I argued for 22 years ago whenTheStreet.comwas coming public. First, as the founder, I was determined to award all the subscribers with stock to demonstrate my loyalty to them.</p><p><blockquote>我只能告诉你22年前TheStreet.com上市时我争论了什么。首先，作为创始人，我决心用股票奖励所有订阅者，以表明我对他们的忠诚。</blockquote></p><p> Second, I was insistent that the deal be priced much lower than the underwriters wanted. We had already made a ton of money for initial investors. Why not leave a lot on the table and let the new investors do well?</p><p><blockquote>其次，我坚持认为这笔交易的定价要比承销商想要的低得多。我们已经为初始投资者赚了一大笔钱。为什么不把很多留在桌面上，让新投资者做好呢？</blockquote></p><p> Third, I wanted enough stock placed with good hands that there would be no flippers and I wanted close coordination with the various brokers who tended to infiltrate the process and hijack the openings by batching market orders and opening the stocks way too high and then shorting them all the way down.</p><p><blockquote>第三，我希望有足够多的股票交给好人，这样就不会有脚蹼，我希望与各种经纪人密切协调，这些经纪人往往会渗透到流程中，通过批量市场订单、开仓过高然后做空股票来劫持开盘。一路下跌。</blockquote></p><p> I lost on every single point.</p><p><blockquote>我在每一点上都输了。</blockquote></p><p> The underwriters said we could not allocate to subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>承销商说我们不能分配给认购者。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the price of the deal would not be controlled to where we could have a small pop so everyone would win.</p><p><blockquote>第二，交易的价格不会被控制在我们可以有一个小的流行，这样每个人都会赢。</blockquote></p><p> Third, the over-the-transom orders, those who placed market orders, were batched by an outfit called Knight Securities, not the underwriter, Goldman Sachs, and it opened at $62 -- it wasn't even clear what the opening price was it was so chaotic -- traded to $66, like how Robinhood traded to $39 and change, and then never traded higher.</p><p><blockquote>第三，场外订单，即那些下市价订单的人，是由一家名为Knight Securities的机构分批的，而不是承销商高盛，开盘价是62美元——甚至不清楚开盘价是多少，太混乱了——交易到66美元，就像Robinhood交易到39美元然后改变，然后再也没有交易更高。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone who bought that day lost money.</p><p><blockquote>那天买的都亏了。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone who sold that day made money.</p><p><blockquote>那天卖出的每个人都赚钱了。</blockquote></p><p> No subscribers got in, most bought at the opening, from what I can tell, and I alienated everyone except the big dogs.</p><p><blockquote>据我所知，没有订阅者加入，大多数是在开盘时购买的，我疏远了除了大狗之外的所有人。</blockquote></p><p> It is amazing that here we are in 2021 and the process, while letting clients in, failed to price it so that Robinhood left money on the table. Believe me, it was possible to do so. But the underwriters and the management chose not to do so. We don't know which side screwed up, or both, but there was a successful blueprint; believe me, if I knew what it was in 1999, they knew what it is now.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，我们现在是2021年，这个过程虽然让客户进入，但却未能定价，因此Robinhood将钱留在了桌面上。相信我，这是可能的。但承销商和管理层选择不这样做。我们不知道哪一方搞砸了，或者两者都搞砸了，但有一个成功的蓝图；相信我，如果我知道1999年是什么，他们也知道现在是什么。</blockquote></p><p> I always regretted what happened. Most people blamed me as I was the face of the process. I was astounded by how horrendous it was and did not \"take the long view\" because the long view sucked.</p><p><blockquote>我一直对发生的事感到后悔。大多数人责怪我，因为我是这个过程的代言人。我被它的可怕程度震惊了，没有“从长计议”，因为从长计议很糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Why do these things go wrong? I do blame the underwriter because they do this every day and the principals only do it once. They have to keep the management from betraying the shareholders because the shareholders think that it is management's fault. No underwriter is EVER going to say that they screwed up. That's not in the cards.</p><p><blockquote>为什么这些事情会出错？我确实责怪承销商，因为他们每天都这样做，而委托人只做一次。他们必须阻止管理层背叛股东，因为股东认为这是管理层的错。没有承销商会说他们搞砸了。那是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> So, we sit back and we marvel about how badly the deal went even as it was well within the province of the underwriter and the principals to make it so Robinhood left more on the table.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们坐下来，惊叹于这笔交易进行得有多糟糕，尽管它完全在承销商和委托人的范围内，所以罗宾汉留下了更多。</blockquote></p><p> Greed?</p><p><blockquote>贪婪？</blockquote></p><p> Stupidity?</p><p><blockquote>愚蠢？</blockquote></p><p> How about poor execution and a lack of transparency that shows how badly it was handled.</p><p><blockquote>糟糕的执行和缺乏透明度表明事情处理得有多糟糕怎么样？</blockquote></p><p> Just like the offering ofTheStreet.com.</p><p><blockquote>就像TheStreet.com的产品一样。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jim Cramer: Robinhood's IPO Debacle Shows How Little Has Changed Over the Decades<blockquote>吉姆·克莱默：Robinhood的IPO惨败表明几十年来变化很小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJim Cramer: Robinhood's IPO Debacle Shows How Little Has Changed Over the Decades<blockquote>吉姆·克莱默：Robinhood的IPO惨败表明几十年来变化很小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 07:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Take it from a guy who knows, the process is really flawed.  What should Robinhood&nbsp;(<b>HOOD</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;have done to avoid the IPO debacle?</p><p><blockquote>听一个知道的人说，这个过程真的有缺陷。罗宾汉应该做什么（<b>发动机罩</b>)-获取报告为避免IPO失败做了哪些工作？</blockquote></p><p> I can't speak to what happened on Thursday, who was in charge, who argued for what.</p><p><blockquote>我不能说周四发生了什么，谁是负责人，谁为什么辩护。</blockquote></p><p> I can only tell you what I argued for 22 years ago whenTheStreet.comwas coming public. First, as the founder, I was determined to award all the subscribers with stock to demonstrate my loyalty to them.</p><p><blockquote>我只能告诉你22年前TheStreet.com上市时我争论了什么。首先，作为创始人，我决心用股票奖励所有订阅者，以表明我对他们的忠诚。</blockquote></p><p> Second, I was insistent that the deal be priced much lower than the underwriters wanted. We had already made a ton of money for initial investors. Why not leave a lot on the table and let the new investors do well?</p><p><blockquote>其次，我坚持认为这笔交易的定价要比承销商想要的低得多。我们已经为初始投资者赚了一大笔钱。为什么不把很多留在桌面上，让新投资者做好呢？</blockquote></p><p> Third, I wanted enough stock placed with good hands that there would be no flippers and I wanted close coordination with the various brokers who tended to infiltrate the process and hijack the openings by batching market orders and opening the stocks way too high and then shorting them all the way down.</p><p><blockquote>第三，我希望有足够多的股票交给好人，这样就不会有脚蹼，我希望与各种经纪人密切协调，这些经纪人往往会渗透到流程中，通过批量市场订单、开仓过高然后做空股票来劫持开盘。一路下跌。</blockquote></p><p> I lost on every single point.</p><p><blockquote>我在每一点上都输了。</blockquote></p><p> The underwriters said we could not allocate to subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>承销商说我们不能分配给认购者。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the price of the deal would not be controlled to where we could have a small pop so everyone would win.</p><p><blockquote>第二，交易的价格不会被控制在我们可以有一个小的流行，这样每个人都会赢。</blockquote></p><p> Third, the over-the-transom orders, those who placed market orders, were batched by an outfit called Knight Securities, not the underwriter, Goldman Sachs, and it opened at $62 -- it wasn't even clear what the opening price was it was so chaotic -- traded to $66, like how Robinhood traded to $39 and change, and then never traded higher.</p><p><blockquote>第三，场外订单，即那些下市价订单的人，是由一家名为Knight Securities的机构分批的，而不是承销商高盛，开盘价是62美元——甚至不清楚开盘价是多少，太混乱了——交易到66美元，就像Robinhood交易到39美元然后改变，然后再也没有交易更高。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone who bought that day lost money.</p><p><blockquote>那天买的都亏了。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone who sold that day made money.</p><p><blockquote>那天卖出的每个人都赚钱了。</blockquote></p><p> No subscribers got in, most bought at the opening, from what I can tell, and I alienated everyone except the big dogs.</p><p><blockquote>据我所知，没有订阅者加入，大多数是在开盘时购买的，我疏远了除了大狗之外的所有人。</blockquote></p><p> It is amazing that here we are in 2021 and the process, while letting clients in, failed to price it so that Robinhood left money on the table. Believe me, it was possible to do so. But the underwriters and the management chose not to do so. We don't know which side screwed up, or both, but there was a successful blueprint; believe me, if I knew what it was in 1999, they knew what it is now.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，我们现在是2021年，这个过程虽然让客户进入，但却未能定价，因此Robinhood将钱留在了桌面上。相信我，这是可能的。但承销商和管理层选择不这样做。我们不知道哪一方搞砸了，或者两者都搞砸了，但有一个成功的蓝图；相信我，如果我知道1999年是什么，他们也知道现在是什么。</blockquote></p><p> I always regretted what happened. Most people blamed me as I was the face of the process. I was astounded by how horrendous it was and did not \"take the long view\" because the long view sucked.</p><p><blockquote>我一直对发生的事感到后悔。大多数人责怪我，因为我是这个过程的代言人。我被它的可怕程度震惊了，没有“从长计议”，因为从长计议很糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Why do these things go wrong? I do blame the underwriter because they do this every day and the principals only do it once. They have to keep the management from betraying the shareholders because the shareholders think that it is management's fault. No underwriter is EVER going to say that they screwed up. That's not in the cards.</p><p><blockquote>为什么这些事情会出错？我确实责怪承销商，因为他们每天都这样做，而委托人只做一次。他们必须阻止管理层背叛股东，因为股东认为这是管理层的错。没有承销商会说他们搞砸了。那是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> So, we sit back and we marvel about how badly the deal went even as it was well within the province of the underwriter and the principals to make it so Robinhood left more on the table.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们坐下来，惊叹于这笔交易进行得有多糟糕，尽管它完全在承销商和委托人的范围内，所以罗宾汉留下了更多。</blockquote></p><p> Greed?</p><p><blockquote>贪婪？</blockquote></p><p> Stupidity?</p><p><blockquote>愚蠢？</blockquote></p><p> How about poor execution and a lack of transparency that shows how badly it was handled.</p><p><blockquote>糟糕的执行和缺乏透明度表明事情处理得有多糟糕怎么样？</blockquote></p><p> Just like the offering ofTheStreet.com.</p><p><blockquote>就像TheStreet.com的产品一样。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/cramer-robinhood-ipo-debacle-thestreet-7-30-21\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HOOD":"Robinhood"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/cramer-robinhood-ipo-debacle-thestreet-7-30-21","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152039134","content_text":"Take it from a guy who knows, the process is really flawed.\n\nWhat should Robinhood (HOOD) -Get Report have done to avoid the IPO debacle?\nI can't speak to what happened on Thursday, who was in charge, who argued for what.\nI can only tell you what I argued for 22 years ago whenTheStreet.comwas coming public. First, as the founder, I was determined to award all the subscribers with stock to demonstrate my loyalty to them.\nSecond, I was insistent that the deal be priced much lower than the underwriters wanted. We had already made a ton of money for initial investors. Why not leave a lot on the table and let the new investors do well?\nThird, I wanted enough stock placed with good hands that there would be no flippers and I wanted close coordination with the various brokers who tended to infiltrate the process and hijack the openings by batching market orders and opening the stocks way too high and then shorting them all the way down.\nI lost on every single point.\nThe underwriters said we could not allocate to subscribers.\nSecond, the price of the deal would not be controlled to where we could have a small pop so everyone would win.\nThird, the over-the-transom orders, those who placed market orders, were batched by an outfit called Knight Securities, not the underwriter, Goldman Sachs, and it opened at $62 -- it wasn't even clear what the opening price was it was so chaotic -- traded to $66, like how Robinhood traded to $39 and change, and then never traded higher.\nEveryone who bought that day lost money.\nEveryone who sold that day made money.\nNo subscribers got in, most bought at the opening, from what I can tell, and I alienated everyone except the big dogs.\nIt is amazing that here we are in 2021 and the process, while letting clients in, failed to price it so that Robinhood left money on the table. Believe me, it was possible to do so. But the underwriters and the management chose not to do so. We don't know which side screwed up, or both, but there was a successful blueprint; believe me, if I knew what it was in 1999, they knew what it is now.\nI always regretted what happened. Most people blamed me as I was the face of the process. I was astounded by how horrendous it was and did not \"take the long view\" because the long view sucked.\nWhy do these things go wrong? I do blame the underwriter because they do this every day and the principals only do it once. They have to keep the management from betraying the shareholders because the shareholders think that it is management's fault. No underwriter is EVER going to say that they screwed up. That's not in the cards.\nSo, we sit back and we marvel about how badly the deal went even as it was well within the province of the underwriter and the principals to make it so Robinhood left more on the table.\nGreed?\nStupidity?\nHow about poor execution and a lack of transparency that shows how badly it was handled.\nJust like the offering ofTheStreet.com.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HOOD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802130403,"gmtCreate":1627729558802,"gmtModify":1633756764100,"author":{"id":"4088680581294190","authorId":"4088680581294190","name":"Rabbani","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa0dc93a68fa410249f2e529f3acf988","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088680581294190","idStr":"4088680581294190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like for like?","listText":"Like for like?","text":"Like for like?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802130403","repostId":"2155001152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802130279,"gmtCreate":1627729526791,"gmtModify":1633756764324,"author":{"id":"4088680581294190","authorId":"4088680581294190","name":"Rabbani","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa0dc93a68fa410249f2e529f3acf988","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088680581294190","idStr":"4088680581294190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cocacola","listText":"Cocacola","text":"Cocacola","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb3e0bc5cb6b83a8050d84cba9d94992","width":"750","height":"2280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802130279","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1247,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802130933,"gmtCreate":1627729455922,"gmtModify":1631885558677,"author":{"id":"4088680581294190","authorId":"4088680581294190","name":"Rabbani","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa0dc93a68fa410249f2e529f3acf988","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088680581294190","idStr":"4088680581294190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">$Coca-Cola(KO)$</a>✌️","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">$Coca-Cola(KO)$</a>✌️","text":"$Coca-Cola(KO)$✌️","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ee9ee1d165ee088e0ce4de887c6fac5","width":"828","height":"1434"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802130933","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144781121,"gmtCreate":1626314555363,"gmtModify":1633927956880,"author":{"id":"4088680581294190","authorId":"4088680581294190","name":"Rabbani","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa0dc93a68fa410249f2e529f3acf988","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088680581294190","idStr":"4088680581294190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help like pls and i'll return the favour on this comment","listText":"Help like pls and i'll return the favour on this comment","text":"Help like pls and i'll return the favour on this comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144781121","repostId":"2151454562","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148910794,"gmtCreate":1625913643318,"gmtModify":1633936144550,"author":{"id":"4088680581294190","authorId":"4088680581294190","name":"Rabbani","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa0dc93a68fa410249f2e529f3acf988","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088680581294190","idStr":"4088680581294190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please thank you","listText":"Like please thank you","text":"Like please thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148910794","repostId":"2150379822","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148910456,"gmtCreate":1625913627275,"gmtModify":1633936144674,"author":{"id":"4088680581294190","authorId":"4088680581294190","name":"Rabbani","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa0dc93a68fa410249f2e529f3acf988","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088680581294190","idStr":"4088680581294190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help me like pls","listText":"Help me like pls","text":"Help me like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148910456","repostId":"1145284684","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145284684","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625878443,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145284684?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 08:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan Semiconductor Vs. United Microelectronics Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>台积电与联合微电子股票：哪个更值得购买？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145284684","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTSMC is the world’s largest foundry for making ICs for fabless semiconductor companies, man","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>TSMC is the world’s largest foundry for making ICs for fabless semiconductor companies, manufacturing 11,617 different products using 281 distinct technologies for 510 different customers.</li>  <li>TSMC and fellow Taiwan foundry United Microelectronics Corporation are expected to benefit from a chip-supply crisis that is adversely impacting automakers.</li>  <li>TSMC benefits from a gross margin nearly twice that of UMC.</li>  <li>40% of revenues are from nodes &lt;14nm, below the smallest node of UMC.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80e662ebb3b78dd0445ecc891cf8986\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>BING-JHEN HONG/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>台积电是全球最大的为无晶圆厂半导体公司制造IC的代工厂，使用281种不同的技术为510个不同的客户制造11,617种不同的产品。</li><li>台积电和台湾代工厂联合微电子公司预计将从对汽车制造商产生不利影响的芯片供应危机中受益。</li><li>台积电受益于近两倍于联电的毛利率。</li><li>40%的收入来自&lt;14nm的节点，低于联电最小的节点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BING-JHEN HONG/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited or TSMC (TSM), and United Microelectronics Corporation or UMC (UMC) are both headquartered in Taiwan and both manufacture semiconductors for companies on a contract basis. They both provide high quality IC fabrication services, focusing on logic and various specialty technologies to serve all major sectors of the electronics industry and are defined as pure-play foundries.</p><p><blockquote>台积电股份有限公司或台积电(TSM)和联华电子公司或联电(UMC)的总部均位于台湾，均以合同方式为公司制造半导体。它们都提供高质量的IC制造服务，专注于逻辑和各种专业技术，为电子行业的所有主要部门提供服务，并被定义为纯粹的代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> While they have similarities, the two companies are vastly different with different business models. TSMC started as and has always been a leading-edge company, manufacturing chips at the smallest dimensions. UMC, on the other hand, Taiwan’s first semiconductor company, has chosen the 14nm node as the smallest dimension it will manufacture.</p><p><blockquote>虽然它们有相似之处，但这两家公司在不同的商业模式上有很大不同。台积电最初是一家领先的公司，并一直是一家以最小尺寸制造芯片的公司。另一方面，台湾第一家半导体公司联电选择了14纳米节点作为其制造的最小尺寸。</blockquote></p><p> To illustrate the differences in models, Chart 1 shows revenues for both companies based on technology node. The key difference is the &lt;14nm node, where TSMC generated 41.4% of its revenue compared to 0% for UMC.</p><p><blockquote>为了说明模型的差异，图1显示了两家公司基于技术节点的收入。关键区别在于&lt;14纳米节点，台积电占其收入的41.4%，而联电为0%。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 1 also shows that TSMC held $43 billion in revenues in 2020 versus $6 billion for UMC. Importantly, it shows also shows the financial dominance of TSMC, since UMC holds second place in the global foundry market.</p><p><blockquote>图1还显示，台积电2020年的收入为430亿美元，而联电为60亿美元。重要的是，这也显示了台积电的财务主导地位，因为联电在全球晶圆代工市场排名第二。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3b088585f8a624c6665040756e940f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>Chart 1</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表1</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Much of TSMC’s revenues are on the &lt;14nm node, which increased from 29.4% of revenues in 2019 to 41.4% in 2020. Since UMC’s smallest node is 28nm/14nm, UMC is investing heavily at that node, and its share of revenue increased from 11.3% in 2019 to 13.6% in 2020. In contrast, in 2020 TSMC’s share at the 28nm/14nm node decreased to 30.8% from 37.7% in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>台积电的大部分收入来自&lt;14纳米节点，占收入的比例从2019年的29.4%增加到2020年的41.4%。由于联电最小的节点是28nm/14nm，联电在该节点上投入巨资，营收占比从2019年的11.3%增加到2020年的13.6%。相比之下，2020年台积电在28纳米/14纳米节点的份额从2019年的37.7%下降到30.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expanding Capacity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>扩大产能</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Leading Edge Nodes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前沿节点</b></blockquote></p><p> TSMC generates about 1/3 of its revenues from the 28nm/14nm, and TSMC has 562,000 wafers/month of 8\" capacity, and 745,000 wafers/month of 12\" capacity. The total capacity is 995,000 wafers/month (12-inch equivalent).</p><p><blockquote>台积电约1/3的收入来自28纳米/14纳米，台积电8英寸产能为562,000片/月，12英寸产能为745,000片/月。总产能为995,000片/月（12英寸当量）。</blockquote></p><p> In TSMC’sQ1 2021 earnings call, TSMC’s VP and CFO Wendell Huang noted:</p><p><blockquote>在台积电2021年第一季度盈利看涨期权中，台积电副总裁兼首席财务官Wendell Huang指出：</blockquote></p><p>   “In order to meet the increasing demand for our advanced and specialty technologies in the next several years, we have decided to raise our full year 2021 CapEx to be around USD 30 billion. About 80% of the 2021 capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, including 3-nanometer, 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer. About 10% will be spent for advanced packaging and mask making, and about 10% will be spent for specialty technologies.”  TSMC expects to invest about $100 billion through the next 3 years to increase capacity, to support the manufacturing and R&amp;D of leading-edge and specialty technologies. Its N5 is already in its second year of volume production, contributing around 20% of our wafer revenue in 2021. N4 risk production is targeted for second half this year and volume production in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“为了满足未来几年对我们先进和专业技术不断增长的需求，我们决定将2021年全年资本支出提高至300亿美元左右。2021年资本预算的约80%将分配给先进工艺技术，包括3纳米、5纳米和7纳米。大约10%将用于先进包装和口罩制造，大约10%将用于专业技术。”台积电预计未来3年将投资约1000亿美元来提高产能，以支持前沿和专业技术的制造和研发。其N5已进入量产的第二年，在2021年贡献了我们约20%的晶圆收入。N4风险生产目标为今年下半年，2022年量产。</blockquote></p><p> Among TSMC's facilities to go online in the next three to four years are the company's&nbsp;fab in Arizona&nbsp;as well as its first 2nm-capable fab in Taiwan. The company needs to build and equip its N5-capable fab in Arizona. The facility will cost around $12 billion, will have a capacity of 20,000 wafer starts per month (WSPM), and will come online in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>台积电将在未来三到四年内上线的设施包括该公司位于亚利桑那州的晶圆厂以及位于台湾的第一家2纳米晶圆厂。该公司需要在亚利桑那州建造和装备其支持N5的工厂。该设施将耗资约120亿美元，每月产能为20,000片晶圆启动(WSPM)，并将于2024年上线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>28nm Nodes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>28nm节点</b></blockquote></p><p> The global semiconductor shortage is one of the catalysts prompting foundry manufacturers to build new fabs, particularly at the 28nm node, as many automobile chips are manufactured at that node. While I have devoted four Seeking Alpha articles on trying to pin down what devices are undersupplied and could only find microcontrollers, in this article, I will concede for the sake of argument, that it is not due to hoarding but inept manufacturing supply chains.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体短缺是促使代工厂制造新晶圆厂的催化剂之一，特别是在28nm节点，因为许多汽车芯片是在该节点制造的。虽然我已经发表了四篇Seeking Alpha文章来试图确定哪些设备供应不足并且只能找到微控制器，但在这篇文章中，为了便于讨论，我将承认这不是由于囤积，而是由于无能的制造供应链。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, governments are spending heavily on this industry to expand the total production capacity. These free handouts are a second catalyst for new 28nm node fab construction.</p><p><blockquote>因此，各国政府在该行业投入巨资，以扩大总产能。这些免费讲义是新28纳米节点晶圆厂建设的第二个催化剂。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A strong demand for wafers from the consumer electronics industry has led to increased shipments of UMC’s 28nm wafers, which saw 18% sequential revenue growth in the last reported quarter. In addition, UMC has been focused on production for the automotive industry as semiconductors for electric and self-driving cars are expected to be a major growth driver for the company. However, global automotive semiconductors are only a $40 billion market, compared to a global semiconductor market of $525 billion. That is growing as more semiconductors are used per vehicle each year and because EVs use more semiconductors than internal combustion vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>消费电子行业对晶圆的强劲需求导致联电28纳米晶圆出货量增加，上一季度营收环比增长18%。此外，联电一直专注于汽车行业的生产，因为电动和自动驾驶汽车的半导体预计将成为该公司的主要增长动力。然而，全球汽车半导体仅是一个400亿美元的市场，而全球半导体市场规模为5250亿美元。随着每年每辆车使用更多的半导体，以及电动汽车比内燃机汽车使用更多的半导体，这一数字还在增长。</blockquote></p><p> There is a supply-demand imbalance in mature nodes, as most of the capacity expansion has been in advanced nodes, but companies have not addressed the mature nodes. The technology node is central to the latest auto chip crisis, while at the same time Sony has moved its design of CMOS Integrated Sensors (\"CIS\") for smartphones to 28nm.</p><p><blockquote>成熟节点存在供需失衡，因为大部分产能扩张都在高级节点，但公司没有解决成熟节点。该技术节点是最新汽车芯片危机的核心，同时索尼已将其用于智能手机的CMOS集成传感器（“CIS”）设计转移到28纳米。</blockquote></p><p> On April 22, TSMC announced plans to build a chip fabrication facility in China is at the receiving end of opposition from critics. The plant is set to make semiconductors built on the mature 28nm process node. The Nanjing plant currently has an installed capacity of 20,000 wafers per month. An investment of $2.8 billion and expecting mass-production in 2023, the expansion will double capacity to 40,000 wafers per month.</p><p><blockquote>4月22日，台积电宣布在中国建设芯片制造工厂的计划遭到了批评者的反对。该工厂将生产基于成熟的28纳米工艺节点的半导体。南京工厂目前的装机容量为每月2万片晶圆。投资28亿美元，预计2023年量产，此次扩建将使产能翻一番，达到每月40,000片晶圆。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC has global 562,000 wafers/month of 8\" capacity, and 745,000 wafers/month of 12\" capacity. The total capacity is 995,000 wafers/month (12-inch equivalent). The new fab with a 20,000 wafer per month capacity represents just 2% of the company’s total capacity.</p><p><blockquote>台积电在全球拥有562,000片晶圆/月的8英寸产能和745,000片/月的12英寸产能。总产能为995,000片/月（12英寸当量）。新晶圆厂每月产能为20,000片晶圆，仅占公司总产能的2%。</blockquote></p><p> UMC also expanded its production of 28nm (with a migration to 40nm) process at its Nanke 12-inch Fab 12A P6 plant in Taiwan. It currently has an 87,000 wafer per month capacity. The total investment in the capacity expansion plan is estimated to be approximately NT$100 billion. The P6 expansion is scheduled for production in the second quarter of 2023, and has a capacity of just 10,000 wafers per month.</p><p><blockquote>联电还在台湾南科12英寸晶圆厂12A P6工厂扩大了28纳米（迁移到40纳米）工艺的生产。目前每月产能为87,000片晶圆。扩能计划总投资预估约1000亿元新台币。P6扩建计划于2023年第二季度投产，每月产能仅为10,000片晶圆。</blockquote></p><p> The P6 program is supported by a multi-year's product alignment between UMC and the involved customers that includes a loading protection mechanism that will ensure the P6 capacity is maintained at a healthy loading level.</p><p><blockquote>P6计划得到了UMC和相关客户之间多年产品一致性的支持，其中包括负载保护机制，可确保P6容量保持在健康的负载水平。</blockquote></p><p> UMC has total 12 fabs in production with combined capacity close to 800,000 wafers per month (8-in equivalent).</p><p><blockquote>联电共有12家晶圆厂在生产，总产能接近每月80万片晶圆（相当于8英寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Per Wafer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每片晶圆的价格</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 2 shows the gross profit by node for an IC device. It partially explains the rationale behind TSMC’s business model to move to advanced nodes, while also explaining why the company chose to leave its 28nm node undersupplied until recent external forces prompted it to build its China fab.</p><p><blockquote>图2显示了IC设备按节点划分的毛利润。它部分解释了台积电转向先进节点的商业模式背后的基本原理，同时也解释了为什么该公司选择让其28纳米节点供应不足，直到最近外部力量促使其建立中国晶圆厂。</blockquote></p><p> Gross profits per 300-mm wafer are $2,835 for a 28nm node versus $8,695 for a 3nm node.</p><p><blockquote>28纳米节点每300毫米晶圆的毛利润为2,835美元，而3纳米节点为8,695美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e241c85dd84eb71f54c3b11812e6599\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>Chart 2</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表2</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows capex spend by node for ICs. Capex spend (building + equipment) at 28nm is $100,000 per wafer, which more than triples to $320,000 at 3nm.</p><p><blockquote>图3显示了IC按节点划分的资本支出。28纳米的资本支出（建筑+设备）为每块晶圆100,000美元，而3纳米的资本支出增加了两倍多，达到320,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f8f60218f2b914e5847e2eef8aa39c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>Chart 3</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表3</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Customer Base</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户基础</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 4 shows that Apple (AAPL) was the largest customer of TSMC in 2020, representing 21% of revenues. Keep in mind that in addition to TSMC’s processors going into iPhones, TSMC also fabricates the M1, which powers the new MacBook Air, 13-inch MacBook Pro, and Mac mini and is Apple's first custom-designed Arm-based chip for Mac.</p><p><blockquote>图表4显示，苹果（AAPL）是2020年台积电最大的客户，占收入的21%。请记住，除了台积电的处理器用于iPhone之外，台积电还制造M1，为新款MacBook Air、13英寸MacBook Pro和Mac mini提供动力，并且是苹果首款为Mac定制设计的基于Arm的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/354a97772e16c2a05dbccc89556de9eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"><span>Chart 4</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表4</span></p></blockquote></p><p> TSMC has upgraded its manufacturing capabilities countless times to keep Apple’s latest chips at the bleeding edge of processor technologies, since its first chip produced for Apple was installed in the Apple iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus, which were introduced on September 9, 2014.</p><p><blockquote>自2014年9月9日推出的苹果iPhone 6和iPhone 6 Plus安装以来，台积电已无数次升级其制造能力，以使苹果的最新芯片保持在处理器技术的前沿。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows that the number of transistors increased from 2 billion for the iPhone 6 to 11.8 billion for the current iPhone 12.</p><p><blockquote>图表5显示，晶体管数量从iPhone 6的20亿个增加到现在的iPhone 12的118亿个。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/108ef270fe60691ec5bc8c7f0a061d9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>Chart 5</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表5</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, investors must consider that:</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者必须考虑：</blockquote></p><p> Any positive developments from Apple will impact TSMC positively, and positive technological developments from TSMC will impact Apple positively. For example, as long as TSMC is the major manufacturer of Apple chips, growth in Apple or new technologies developed by Apple requiring chips (such as Auto or ADAS), then TSMC will gain.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的任何积极发展都将对台积电产生积极影响，台积电的积极技术发展也将对苹果产生积极影响。例如，只要台积电是苹果芯片的主要制造商，苹果的增长或苹果开发的需要芯片的新技术（如汽车或ADAS），那么台积电就会受益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Secondly, because of capacity limitations and technology node demands, any expansion in capacity from TSMC will be beneficial to Apple as it moves to smaller nodes while consuming about 25% of TSMC’s chip output on a revenue basis.</p><p><blockquote>其次，由于产能限制和技术节点需求，台积电的任何产能扩张都将有利于苹果，因为它转向更小的节点，同时消耗台积电约25%的芯片产量。</blockquote></p><p> UMC is less transparent and doesn’t provide a breakdown by customer. UMC’s primary customers include premier integrated device manufacturers, such as Texas Instruments(NASDAQ:TXN)and Intel Mobile(NASDAQ:INTC), plus leading fabless design companies, such as MediaTek(OTCPK:MDTKF), Realtek, Qualcomm(NASDAQ:QCOM)and Novatek.</p><p><blockquote>UMC透明度较低，不提供客户细分。联电的主要客户包括顶级集成设备制造商，如德州仪器（纳斯达克：TXN）和英特尔移动（纳斯达克：INTC），以及领先的无晶圆厂设计公司，如联发科（OTCPK：MDTKF）、瑞昱、高通（纳斯达克：QCOM）和联咏。</blockquote></p><p> In August 2018, UMC announced it would pause research for advancing the productional technology of chips under 10nm nodes. As shown in the figure above, since 2018, the corresponding proportion of the company's advanced processes has been reduced to zero, but for mature nodes such as 65nm and 28nm, the proportion has been increased.</p><p><blockquote>2018年8月，联电宣布将暂停推进10nm节点以下芯片生产技术的研究。如上图所示，自2018年起，公司先进制程的相应占比已降至零，但对于65nm、28nm等成熟节点，占比有所提升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaways</b>: Is TSM Or UMC Stock A Better Buy?</p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b>：TSM或UMC股票更值得购买？</blockquote></p><p> Both companies compete in the same industry, but their business models are a differentiating metric. TSMC generates most of its revenue on nodes smaller than UMC’s (Chart 1), and most of its planned capex will focus new fabs making ICs at increasing smaller nodes.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司在同一行业竞争，但他们的商业模式是一个差异化的指标。台积电的大部分收入来自比联电更小的节点（图1），其大部分计划资本支出将集中在制造集成电路的新晶圆厂上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TSMC Positives</b></p><p><blockquote><b>台积电利好</b></blockquote></p><p> TSMC’s share of the pure-play foundry market was 57% share in 2020, up from 55% in 2019. UMC’s share was constant at slightly less than 8%.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，台积电在纯晶圆代工市场的份额为57%，高于2019年的55%。联电的份额稳定在略低于8%。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC benefits from the smaller nodes. Although capex increases with decreasing nodes (Chart 3), so too does gross profit (Chart 2). Thus, TSM has higher revenues than UMC: $48.2B vs $6.283B.</p><p><blockquote>台积电受益于较小的节点。尽管资本支出随着节点的减少而增加（图3），但毛利润也会增加（图2）。因此，TSM的收入高于UMC：$48.2 B vs$62.83亿B。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>TSMC also has higher annual earnings (EBITDA): $33B vs. UMC $2.349B.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>台积电的年收益(EBITDA)也更高：$33B，而联电为$23.49 B。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>TSMC ($613B) has a higher market cap than UMC ($23.4B).</p><p><blockquote><li>台积电（$613B）的市值高于联电（$234亿）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>TSMC has more cash on hand: $23.3B vs. UMC ($3.76B).</p><p><blockquote><li>台积电手头现金更多：$23.3 B vs UMC（$37.6 B）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>TSMC has a higher EPS (3.99) than UMC (0.59).</p><p><blockquote><li>台积电的每股收益（3.99）高于联电（0.59）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Seeking Alpha’s quant ratings are derived by measuring a stock's financial metrics against other stocks in the sector on the basis of value, growth, profitability, momentum and analysts’ earnings revisions. In Table 1, both stocks have high rankings. TSMC has a quant rating of 4.63 and UMC has a quant rating of 4.54.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha的量化评级是通过根据价值、增长、盈利能力、动量和分析师的盈利修正来衡量股票与该行业其他股票的财务指标而得出的。在表1中，两只股票的排名都很高。台积电的量化评级为4.63，联电的量化评级为4.54。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55db72bd38ddd1d46c2ec7a6ccf6307f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"117\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Gross margin for TSMC and UMC is shown in Table 2. A positive for TSMC, gross margin is significantly ahead of UMC and the average of all foundries. The Street expects 3Q21 gross margin will improve to 52.9%, given a higher revenue scale, tight foundry supply and improved efficiency of 5nm production.</p><p><blockquote>台积电和联电的毛利率如表2所示。对台积电来说，这是一个利好，毛利率大幅领先于联电和所有代工厂的平均水平。华尔街预计，鉴于更高的收入规模、晶圆代工供应紧张以及5nm生产效率的提高，2021年第三季度的毛利率将改善至52.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ab6dce4d14398755080d9db48522121\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>UMC Positives</b></p><p><blockquote><b>联电正面</b></blockquote></p><p> The comparison of other financial metrics, UMC has stronger financials:</p><p><blockquote>与其他财务指标相比，联电的财务状况更强劲：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>UMC has a lower P/E ratio than TSM: 21.8 vs 28.9</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>联电的市盈率低于台积电：21.8 vs 28.9</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>UMC has less debt than TSM: $2.47B vs $15.4B.</p><p><blockquote><li>UMC的债务低于TSM：$2.47 B vs$15.4 B。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>UMC YTD gains are higher at: 10.558 vs. TSM (8.922).</p><p><blockquote><li>UMC年初至今涨幅较高：10.558 vs.TSM(8.922)。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Table 3 shows stock performance in percent growth for TSM and UMC. In the past year, UMC stock has outperformed TSMC, and did so in the 3-year and 5-year period. But in a 10-year period, TSMC is the better choice.</p><p><blockquote>表3显示了TSM和UMC的股票增长百分比。过去一年，联电股票的表现优于台积电，在3年和5年期间也是如此。但在10年的时间里，台积电是更好的选择。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7533369f256853d498f5492752417e05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"172\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> TSMC is the clear winner over UMC going forward. The company chose its strategy to build chips at the &lt;7nm node. The fact that it is building a 28nm fab in China, the “sweet spot” for UMC, coupled with a new 28nm SMIC (OTCQX:SMICY) fab, will mean lost market share at this node for UMC.</p><p><blockquote>台积电显然是未来联电的赢家。该公司选择了在&lt;7纳米节点构建芯片的策略。事实上，它正在中国建造一座28纳米晶圆厂，这是联电的“最佳地点”，再加上一座新的28纳米中芯国际（OTCQX：SMICY）晶圆厂，这将意味着联电在这个节点失去市场份额。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan Semiconductor Vs. United Microelectronics Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>台积电与联合微电子股票：哪个更值得购买？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan Semiconductor Vs. United Microelectronics Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>台积电与联合微电子股票：哪个更值得购买？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 08:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>TSMC is the world’s largest foundry for making ICs for fabless semiconductor companies, manufacturing 11,617 different products using 281 distinct technologies for 510 different customers.</li>  <li>TSMC and fellow Taiwan foundry United Microelectronics Corporation are expected to benefit from a chip-supply crisis that is adversely impacting automakers.</li>  <li>TSMC benefits from a gross margin nearly twice that of UMC.</li>  <li>40% of revenues are from nodes &lt;14nm, below the smallest node of UMC.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80e662ebb3b78dd0445ecc891cf8986\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>BING-JHEN HONG/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>台积电是全球最大的为无晶圆厂半导体公司制造IC的代工厂，使用281种不同的技术为510个不同的客户制造11,617种不同的产品。</li><li>台积电和台湾代工厂联合微电子公司预计将从对汽车制造商产生不利影响的芯片供应危机中受益。</li><li>台积电受益于近两倍于联电的毛利率。</li><li>40%的收入来自&lt;14nm的节点，低于联电最小的节点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BING-JHEN HONG/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited or TSMC (TSM), and United Microelectronics Corporation or UMC (UMC) are both headquartered in Taiwan and both manufacture semiconductors for companies on a contract basis. They both provide high quality IC fabrication services, focusing on logic and various specialty technologies to serve all major sectors of the electronics industry and are defined as pure-play foundries.</p><p><blockquote>台积电股份有限公司或台积电(TSM)和联华电子公司或联电(UMC)的总部均位于台湾，均以合同方式为公司制造半导体。它们都提供高质量的IC制造服务，专注于逻辑和各种专业技术，为电子行业的所有主要部门提供服务，并被定义为纯粹的代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> While they have similarities, the two companies are vastly different with different business models. TSMC started as and has always been a leading-edge company, manufacturing chips at the smallest dimensions. UMC, on the other hand, Taiwan’s first semiconductor company, has chosen the 14nm node as the smallest dimension it will manufacture.</p><p><blockquote>虽然它们有相似之处，但这两家公司在不同的商业模式上有很大不同。台积电最初是一家领先的公司，并一直是一家以最小尺寸制造芯片的公司。另一方面，台湾第一家半导体公司联电选择了14纳米节点作为其制造的最小尺寸。</blockquote></p><p> To illustrate the differences in models, Chart 1 shows revenues for both companies based on technology node. The key difference is the &lt;14nm node, where TSMC generated 41.4% of its revenue compared to 0% for UMC.</p><p><blockquote>为了说明模型的差异，图1显示了两家公司基于技术节点的收入。关键区别在于&lt;14纳米节点，台积电占其收入的41.4%，而联电为0%。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 1 also shows that TSMC held $43 billion in revenues in 2020 versus $6 billion for UMC. Importantly, it shows also shows the financial dominance of TSMC, since UMC holds second place in the global foundry market.</p><p><blockquote>图1还显示，台积电2020年的收入为430亿美元，而联电为60亿美元。重要的是，这也显示了台积电的财务主导地位，因为联电在全球晶圆代工市场排名第二。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3b088585f8a624c6665040756e940f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>Chart 1</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表1</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Much of TSMC’s revenues are on the &lt;14nm node, which increased from 29.4% of revenues in 2019 to 41.4% in 2020. Since UMC’s smallest node is 28nm/14nm, UMC is investing heavily at that node, and its share of revenue increased from 11.3% in 2019 to 13.6% in 2020. In contrast, in 2020 TSMC’s share at the 28nm/14nm node decreased to 30.8% from 37.7% in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>台积电的大部分收入来自&lt;14纳米节点，占收入的比例从2019年的29.4%增加到2020年的41.4%。由于联电最小的节点是28nm/14nm，联电在该节点上投入巨资，营收占比从2019年的11.3%增加到2020年的13.6%。相比之下，2020年台积电在28纳米/14纳米节点的份额从2019年的37.7%下降到30.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expanding Capacity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>扩大产能</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Leading Edge Nodes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前沿节点</b></blockquote></p><p> TSMC generates about 1/3 of its revenues from the 28nm/14nm, and TSMC has 562,000 wafers/month of 8\" capacity, and 745,000 wafers/month of 12\" capacity. The total capacity is 995,000 wafers/month (12-inch equivalent).</p><p><blockquote>台积电约1/3的收入来自28纳米/14纳米，台积电8英寸产能为562,000片/月，12英寸产能为745,000片/月。总产能为995,000片/月（12英寸当量）。</blockquote></p><p> In TSMC’sQ1 2021 earnings call, TSMC’s VP and CFO Wendell Huang noted:</p><p><blockquote>在台积电2021年第一季度盈利看涨期权中，台积电副总裁兼首席财务官Wendell Huang指出：</blockquote></p><p>   “In order to meet the increasing demand for our advanced and specialty technologies in the next several years, we have decided to raise our full year 2021 CapEx to be around USD 30 billion. About 80% of the 2021 capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, including 3-nanometer, 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer. About 10% will be spent for advanced packaging and mask making, and about 10% will be spent for specialty technologies.”  TSMC expects to invest about $100 billion through the next 3 years to increase capacity, to support the manufacturing and R&amp;D of leading-edge and specialty technologies. Its N5 is already in its second year of volume production, contributing around 20% of our wafer revenue in 2021. N4 risk production is targeted for second half this year and volume production in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“为了满足未来几年对我们先进和专业技术不断增长的需求，我们决定将2021年全年资本支出提高至300亿美元左右。2021年资本预算的约80%将分配给先进工艺技术，包括3纳米、5纳米和7纳米。大约10%将用于先进包装和口罩制造，大约10%将用于专业技术。”台积电预计未来3年将投资约1000亿美元来提高产能，以支持前沿和专业技术的制造和研发。其N5已进入量产的第二年，在2021年贡献了我们约20%的晶圆收入。N4风险生产目标为今年下半年，2022年量产。</blockquote></p><p> Among TSMC's facilities to go online in the next three to four years are the company's&nbsp;fab in Arizona&nbsp;as well as its first 2nm-capable fab in Taiwan. The company needs to build and equip its N5-capable fab in Arizona. The facility will cost around $12 billion, will have a capacity of 20,000 wafer starts per month (WSPM), and will come online in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>台积电将在未来三到四年内上线的设施包括该公司位于亚利桑那州的晶圆厂以及位于台湾的第一家2纳米晶圆厂。该公司需要在亚利桑那州建造和装备其支持N5的工厂。该设施将耗资约120亿美元，每月产能为20,000片晶圆启动(WSPM)，并将于2024年上线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>28nm Nodes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>28nm节点</b></blockquote></p><p> The global semiconductor shortage is one of the catalysts prompting foundry manufacturers to build new fabs, particularly at the 28nm node, as many automobile chips are manufactured at that node. While I have devoted four Seeking Alpha articles on trying to pin down what devices are undersupplied and could only find microcontrollers, in this article, I will concede for the sake of argument, that it is not due to hoarding but inept manufacturing supply chains.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体短缺是促使代工厂制造新晶圆厂的催化剂之一，特别是在28nm节点，因为许多汽车芯片是在该节点制造的。虽然我已经发表了四篇Seeking Alpha文章来试图确定哪些设备供应不足并且只能找到微控制器，但在这篇文章中，为了便于讨论，我将承认这不是由于囤积，而是由于无能的制造供应链。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, governments are spending heavily on this industry to expand the total production capacity. These free handouts are a second catalyst for new 28nm node fab construction.</p><p><blockquote>因此，各国政府在该行业投入巨资，以扩大总产能。这些免费讲义是新28纳米节点晶圆厂建设的第二个催化剂。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A strong demand for wafers from the consumer electronics industry has led to increased shipments of UMC’s 28nm wafers, which saw 18% sequential revenue growth in the last reported quarter. In addition, UMC has been focused on production for the automotive industry as semiconductors for electric and self-driving cars are expected to be a major growth driver for the company. However, global automotive semiconductors are only a $40 billion market, compared to a global semiconductor market of $525 billion. That is growing as more semiconductors are used per vehicle each year and because EVs use more semiconductors than internal combustion vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>消费电子行业对晶圆的强劲需求导致联电28纳米晶圆出货量增加，上一季度营收环比增长18%。此外，联电一直专注于汽车行业的生产，因为电动和自动驾驶汽车的半导体预计将成为该公司的主要增长动力。然而，全球汽车半导体仅是一个400亿美元的市场，而全球半导体市场规模为5250亿美元。随着每年每辆车使用更多的半导体，以及电动汽车比内燃机汽车使用更多的半导体，这一数字还在增长。</blockquote></p><p> There is a supply-demand imbalance in mature nodes, as most of the capacity expansion has been in advanced nodes, but companies have not addressed the mature nodes. The technology node is central to the latest auto chip crisis, while at the same time Sony has moved its design of CMOS Integrated Sensors (\"CIS\") for smartphones to 28nm.</p><p><blockquote>成熟节点存在供需失衡，因为大部分产能扩张都在高级节点，但公司没有解决成熟节点。该技术节点是最新汽车芯片危机的核心，同时索尼已将其用于智能手机的CMOS集成传感器（“CIS”）设计转移到28纳米。</blockquote></p><p> On April 22, TSMC announced plans to build a chip fabrication facility in China is at the receiving end of opposition from critics. The plant is set to make semiconductors built on the mature 28nm process node. The Nanjing plant currently has an installed capacity of 20,000 wafers per month. An investment of $2.8 billion and expecting mass-production in 2023, the expansion will double capacity to 40,000 wafers per month.</p><p><blockquote>4月22日，台积电宣布在中国建设芯片制造工厂的计划遭到了批评者的反对。该工厂将生产基于成熟的28纳米工艺节点的半导体。南京工厂目前的装机容量为每月2万片晶圆。投资28亿美元，预计2023年量产，此次扩建将使产能翻一番，达到每月40,000片晶圆。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC has global 562,000 wafers/month of 8\" capacity, and 745,000 wafers/month of 12\" capacity. The total capacity is 995,000 wafers/month (12-inch equivalent). The new fab with a 20,000 wafer per month capacity represents just 2% of the company’s total capacity.</p><p><blockquote>台积电在全球拥有562,000片晶圆/月的8英寸产能和745,000片/月的12英寸产能。总产能为995,000片/月（12英寸当量）。新晶圆厂每月产能为20,000片晶圆，仅占公司总产能的2%。</blockquote></p><p> UMC also expanded its production of 28nm (with a migration to 40nm) process at its Nanke 12-inch Fab 12A P6 plant in Taiwan. It currently has an 87,000 wafer per month capacity. The total investment in the capacity expansion plan is estimated to be approximately NT$100 billion. The P6 expansion is scheduled for production in the second quarter of 2023, and has a capacity of just 10,000 wafers per month.</p><p><blockquote>联电还在台湾南科12英寸晶圆厂12A P6工厂扩大了28纳米（迁移到40纳米）工艺的生产。目前每月产能为87,000片晶圆。扩能计划总投资预估约1000亿元新台币。P6扩建计划于2023年第二季度投产，每月产能仅为10,000片晶圆。</blockquote></p><p> The P6 program is supported by a multi-year's product alignment between UMC and the involved customers that includes a loading protection mechanism that will ensure the P6 capacity is maintained at a healthy loading level.</p><p><blockquote>P6计划得到了UMC和相关客户之间多年产品一致性的支持，其中包括负载保护机制，可确保P6容量保持在健康的负载水平。</blockquote></p><p> UMC has total 12 fabs in production with combined capacity close to 800,000 wafers per month (8-in equivalent).</p><p><blockquote>联电共有12家晶圆厂在生产，总产能接近每月80万片晶圆（相当于8英寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Per Wafer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每片晶圆的价格</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 2 shows the gross profit by node for an IC device. It partially explains the rationale behind TSMC’s business model to move to advanced nodes, while also explaining why the company chose to leave its 28nm node undersupplied until recent external forces prompted it to build its China fab.</p><p><blockquote>图2显示了IC设备按节点划分的毛利润。它部分解释了台积电转向先进节点的商业模式背后的基本原理，同时也解释了为什么该公司选择让其28纳米节点供应不足，直到最近外部力量促使其建立中国晶圆厂。</blockquote></p><p> Gross profits per 300-mm wafer are $2,835 for a 28nm node versus $8,695 for a 3nm node.</p><p><blockquote>28纳米节点每300毫米晶圆的毛利润为2,835美元，而3纳米节点为8,695美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e241c85dd84eb71f54c3b11812e6599\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>Chart 2</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表2</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows capex spend by node for ICs. Capex spend (building + equipment) at 28nm is $100,000 per wafer, which more than triples to $320,000 at 3nm.</p><p><blockquote>图3显示了IC按节点划分的资本支出。28纳米的资本支出（建筑+设备）为每块晶圆100,000美元，而3纳米的资本支出增加了两倍多，达到320,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f8f60218f2b914e5847e2eef8aa39c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>Chart 3</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表3</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Customer Base</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户基础</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 4 shows that Apple (AAPL) was the largest customer of TSMC in 2020, representing 21% of revenues. Keep in mind that in addition to TSMC’s processors going into iPhones, TSMC also fabricates the M1, which powers the new MacBook Air, 13-inch MacBook Pro, and Mac mini and is Apple's first custom-designed Arm-based chip for Mac.</p><p><blockquote>图表4显示，苹果（AAPL）是2020年台积电最大的客户，占收入的21%。请记住，除了台积电的处理器用于iPhone之外，台积电还制造M1，为新款MacBook Air、13英寸MacBook Pro和Mac mini提供动力，并且是苹果首款为Mac定制设计的基于Arm的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/354a97772e16c2a05dbccc89556de9eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"><span>Chart 4</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表4</span></p></blockquote></p><p> TSMC has upgraded its manufacturing capabilities countless times to keep Apple’s latest chips at the bleeding edge of processor technologies, since its first chip produced for Apple was installed in the Apple iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus, which were introduced on September 9, 2014.</p><p><blockquote>自2014年9月9日推出的苹果iPhone 6和iPhone 6 Plus安装以来，台积电已无数次升级其制造能力，以使苹果的最新芯片保持在处理器技术的前沿。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows that the number of transistors increased from 2 billion for the iPhone 6 to 11.8 billion for the current iPhone 12.</p><p><blockquote>图表5显示，晶体管数量从iPhone 6的20亿个增加到现在的iPhone 12的118亿个。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/108ef270fe60691ec5bc8c7f0a061d9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>Chart 5</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表5</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, investors must consider that:</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者必须考虑：</blockquote></p><p> Any positive developments from Apple will impact TSMC positively, and positive technological developments from TSMC will impact Apple positively. For example, as long as TSMC is the major manufacturer of Apple chips, growth in Apple or new technologies developed by Apple requiring chips (such as Auto or ADAS), then TSMC will gain.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的任何积极发展都将对台积电产生积极影响，台积电的积极技术发展也将对苹果产生积极影响。例如，只要台积电是苹果芯片的主要制造商，苹果的增长或苹果开发的需要芯片的新技术（如汽车或ADAS），那么台积电就会受益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Secondly, because of capacity limitations and technology node demands, any expansion in capacity from TSMC will be beneficial to Apple as it moves to smaller nodes while consuming about 25% of TSMC’s chip output on a revenue basis.</p><p><blockquote>其次，由于产能限制和技术节点需求，台积电的任何产能扩张都将有利于苹果，因为它转向更小的节点，同时消耗台积电约25%的芯片产量。</blockquote></p><p> UMC is less transparent and doesn’t provide a breakdown by customer. UMC’s primary customers include premier integrated device manufacturers, such as Texas Instruments(NASDAQ:TXN)and Intel Mobile(NASDAQ:INTC), plus leading fabless design companies, such as MediaTek(OTCPK:MDTKF), Realtek, Qualcomm(NASDAQ:QCOM)and Novatek.</p><p><blockquote>UMC透明度较低，不提供客户细分。联电的主要客户包括顶级集成设备制造商，如德州仪器（纳斯达克：TXN）和英特尔移动（纳斯达克：INTC），以及领先的无晶圆厂设计公司，如联发科（OTCPK：MDTKF）、瑞昱、高通（纳斯达克：QCOM）和联咏。</blockquote></p><p> In August 2018, UMC announced it would pause research for advancing the productional technology of chips under 10nm nodes. As shown in the figure above, since 2018, the corresponding proportion of the company's advanced processes has been reduced to zero, but for mature nodes such as 65nm and 28nm, the proportion has been increased.</p><p><blockquote>2018年8月，联电宣布将暂停推进10nm节点以下芯片生产技术的研究。如上图所示，自2018年起，公司先进制程的相应占比已降至零，但对于65nm、28nm等成熟节点，占比有所提升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaways</b>: Is TSM Or UMC Stock A Better Buy?</p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b>：TSM或UMC股票更值得购买？</blockquote></p><p> Both companies compete in the same industry, but their business models are a differentiating metric. TSMC generates most of its revenue on nodes smaller than UMC’s (Chart 1), and most of its planned capex will focus new fabs making ICs at increasing smaller nodes.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司在同一行业竞争，但他们的商业模式是一个差异化的指标。台积电的大部分收入来自比联电更小的节点（图1），其大部分计划资本支出将集中在制造集成电路的新晶圆厂上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TSMC Positives</b></p><p><blockquote><b>台积电利好</b></blockquote></p><p> TSMC’s share of the pure-play foundry market was 57% share in 2020, up from 55% in 2019. UMC’s share was constant at slightly less than 8%.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，台积电在纯晶圆代工市场的份额为57%，高于2019年的55%。联电的份额稳定在略低于8%。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC benefits from the smaller nodes. Although capex increases with decreasing nodes (Chart 3), so too does gross profit (Chart 2). Thus, TSM has higher revenues than UMC: $48.2B vs $6.283B.</p><p><blockquote>台积电受益于较小的节点。尽管资本支出随着节点的减少而增加（图3），但毛利润也会增加（图2）。因此，TSM的收入高于UMC：$48.2 B vs$62.83亿B。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>TSMC also has higher annual earnings (EBITDA): $33B vs. UMC $2.349B.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>台积电的年收益(EBITDA)也更高：$33B，而联电为$23.49 B。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>TSMC ($613B) has a higher market cap than UMC ($23.4B).</p><p><blockquote><li>台积电（$613B）的市值高于联电（$234亿）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>TSMC has more cash on hand: $23.3B vs. UMC ($3.76B).</p><p><blockquote><li>台积电手头现金更多：$23.3 B vs UMC（$37.6 B）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>TSMC has a higher EPS (3.99) than UMC (0.59).</p><p><blockquote><li>台积电的每股收益（3.99）高于联电（0.59）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Seeking Alpha’s quant ratings are derived by measuring a stock's financial metrics against other stocks in the sector on the basis of value, growth, profitability, momentum and analysts’ earnings revisions. In Table 1, both stocks have high rankings. TSMC has a quant rating of 4.63 and UMC has a quant rating of 4.54.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha的量化评级是通过根据价值、增长、盈利能力、动量和分析师的盈利修正来衡量股票与该行业其他股票的财务指标而得出的。在表1中，两只股票的排名都很高。台积电的量化评级为4.63，联电的量化评级为4.54。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55db72bd38ddd1d46c2ec7a6ccf6307f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"117\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Gross margin for TSMC and UMC is shown in Table 2. A positive for TSMC, gross margin is significantly ahead of UMC and the average of all foundries. The Street expects 3Q21 gross margin will improve to 52.9%, given a higher revenue scale, tight foundry supply and improved efficiency of 5nm production.</p><p><blockquote>台积电和联电的毛利率如表2所示。对台积电来说，这是一个利好，毛利率大幅领先于联电和所有代工厂的平均水平。华尔街预计，鉴于更高的收入规模、晶圆代工供应紧张以及5nm生产效率的提高，2021年第三季度的毛利率将改善至52.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ab6dce4d14398755080d9db48522121\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>UMC Positives</b></p><p><blockquote><b>联电正面</b></blockquote></p><p> The comparison of other financial metrics, UMC has stronger financials:</p><p><blockquote>与其他财务指标相比，联电的财务状况更强劲：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>UMC has a lower P/E ratio than TSM: 21.8 vs 28.9</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>联电的市盈率低于台积电：21.8 vs 28.9</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>UMC has less debt than TSM: $2.47B vs $15.4B.</p><p><blockquote><li>UMC的债务低于TSM：$2.47 B vs$15.4 B。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>UMC YTD gains are higher at: 10.558 vs. TSM (8.922).</p><p><blockquote><li>UMC年初至今涨幅较高：10.558 vs.TSM(8.922)。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Table 3 shows stock performance in percent growth for TSM and UMC. In the past year, UMC stock has outperformed TSMC, and did so in the 3-year and 5-year period. But in a 10-year period, TSMC is the better choice.</p><p><blockquote>表3显示了TSM和UMC的股票增长百分比。过去一年，联电股票的表现优于台积电，在3年和5年期间也是如此。但在10年的时间里，台积电是更好的选择。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7533369f256853d498f5492752417e05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"172\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> TSMC is the clear winner over UMC going forward. The company chose its strategy to build chips at the &lt;7nm node. The fact that it is building a 28nm fab in China, the “sweet spot” for UMC, coupled with a new 28nm SMIC (OTCQX:SMICY) fab, will mean lost market share at this node for UMC.</p><p><blockquote>台积电显然是未来联电的赢家。该公司选择了在&lt;7纳米节点构建芯片的策略。事实上，它正在中国建造一座28纳米晶圆厂，这是联电的“最佳地点”，再加上一座新的28纳米中芯国际（OTCQX：SMICY）晶圆厂，这将意味着联电在这个节点失去市场份额。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438509-taiwan-semiconductor-vs-united-microelectronics-stock\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UMC":"联电","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438509-taiwan-semiconductor-vs-united-microelectronics-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145284684","content_text":"Summary\n\nTSMC is the world’s largest foundry for making ICs for fabless semiconductor companies, manufacturing 11,617 different products using 281 distinct technologies for 510 different customers.\nTSMC and fellow Taiwan foundry United Microelectronics Corporation are expected to benefit from a chip-supply crisis that is adversely impacting automakers.\nTSMC benefits from a gross margin nearly twice that of UMC.\n40% of revenues are from nodes <14nm, below the smallest node of UMC.\n\nBING-JHEN HONG/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited or TSMC (TSM), and United Microelectronics Corporation or UMC (UMC) are both headquartered in Taiwan and both manufacture semiconductors for companies on a contract basis. They both provide high quality IC fabrication services, focusing on logic and various specialty technologies to serve all major sectors of the electronics industry and are defined as pure-play foundries.\nWhile they have similarities, the two companies are vastly different with different business models. TSMC started as and has always been a leading-edge company, manufacturing chips at the smallest dimensions. UMC, on the other hand, Taiwan’s first semiconductor company, has chosen the 14nm node as the smallest dimension it will manufacture.\nTo illustrate the differences in models, Chart 1 shows revenues for both companies based on technology node. The key difference is the <14nm node, where TSMC generated 41.4% of its revenue compared to 0% for UMC.\nChart 1 also shows that TSMC held $43 billion in revenues in 2020 versus $6 billion for UMC. Importantly, it shows also shows the financial dominance of TSMC, since UMC holds second place in the global foundry market.\nChart 1\nMuch of TSMC’s revenues are on the <14nm node, which increased from 29.4% of revenues in 2019 to 41.4% in 2020. Since UMC’s smallest node is 28nm/14nm, UMC is investing heavily at that node, and its share of revenue increased from 11.3% in 2019 to 13.6% in 2020. In contrast, in 2020 TSMC’s share at the 28nm/14nm node decreased to 30.8% from 37.7% in 2019.\nExpanding Capacity\nLeading Edge Nodes\nTSMC generates about 1/3 of its revenues from the 28nm/14nm, and TSMC has 562,000 wafers/month of 8\" capacity, and 745,000 wafers/month of 12\" capacity. The total capacity is 995,000 wafers/month (12-inch equivalent).\nIn TSMC’sQ1 2021 earnings call, TSMC’s VP and CFO Wendell Huang noted:\n\n “In order to meet the increasing demand for our advanced and specialty technologies in the next several years, we have decided to raise our full year 2021 CapEx to be around USD 30 billion. About 80% of the 2021 capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, including 3-nanometer, 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer. About 10% will be spent for advanced packaging and mask making, and about 10% will be spent for specialty technologies.”\n\nTSMC expects to invest about $100 billion through the next 3 years to increase capacity, to support the manufacturing and R&D of leading-edge and specialty technologies. Its N5 is already in its second year of volume production, contributing around 20% of our wafer revenue in 2021. N4 risk production is targeted for second half this year and volume production in 2022.\nAmong TSMC's facilities to go online in the next three to four years are the company's fab in Arizona as well as its first 2nm-capable fab in Taiwan. The company needs to build and equip its N5-capable fab in Arizona. The facility will cost around $12 billion, will have a capacity of 20,000 wafer starts per month (WSPM), and will come online in 2024.\n28nm Nodes\nThe global semiconductor shortage is one of the catalysts prompting foundry manufacturers to build new fabs, particularly at the 28nm node, as many automobile chips are manufactured at that node. While I have devoted four Seeking Alpha articles on trying to pin down what devices are undersupplied and could only find microcontrollers, in this article, I will concede for the sake of argument, that it is not due to hoarding but inept manufacturing supply chains.\nAs a result, governments are spending heavily on this industry to expand the total production capacity. These free handouts are a second catalyst for new 28nm node fab construction.\nA strong demand for wafers from the consumer electronics industry has led to increased shipments of UMC’s 28nm wafers, which saw 18% sequential revenue growth in the last reported quarter. In addition, UMC has been focused on production for the automotive industry as semiconductors for electric and self-driving cars are expected to be a major growth driver for the company. However, global automotive semiconductors are only a $40 billion market, compared to a global semiconductor market of $525 billion. That is growing as more semiconductors are used per vehicle each year and because EVs use more semiconductors than internal combustion vehicles.\nThere is a supply-demand imbalance in mature nodes, as most of the capacity expansion has been in advanced nodes, but companies have not addressed the mature nodes. The technology node is central to the latest auto chip crisis, while at the same time Sony has moved its design of CMOS Integrated Sensors (\"CIS\") for smartphones to 28nm.\nOn April 22, TSMC announced plans to build a chip fabrication facility in China is at the receiving end of opposition from critics. The plant is set to make semiconductors built on the mature 28nm process node. The Nanjing plant currently has an installed capacity of 20,000 wafers per month. An investment of $2.8 billion and expecting mass-production in 2023, the expansion will double capacity to 40,000 wafers per month.\nTSMC has global 562,000 wafers/month of 8\" capacity, and 745,000 wafers/month of 12\" capacity. The total capacity is 995,000 wafers/month (12-inch equivalent). The new fab with a 20,000 wafer per month capacity represents just 2% of the company’s total capacity.\nUMC also expanded its production of 28nm (with a migration to 40nm) process at its Nanke 12-inch Fab 12A P6 plant in Taiwan. It currently has an 87,000 wafer per month capacity. The total investment in the capacity expansion plan is estimated to be approximately NT$100 billion. The P6 expansion is scheduled for production in the second quarter of 2023, and has a capacity of just 10,000 wafers per month.\nThe P6 program is supported by a multi-year's product alignment between UMC and the involved customers that includes a loading protection mechanism that will ensure the P6 capacity is maintained at a healthy loading level.\nUMC has total 12 fabs in production with combined capacity close to 800,000 wafers per month (8-in equivalent).\nPrice Per Wafer\nChart 2 shows the gross profit by node for an IC device. It partially explains the rationale behind TSMC’s business model to move to advanced nodes, while also explaining why the company chose to leave its 28nm node undersupplied until recent external forces prompted it to build its China fab.\nGross profits per 300-mm wafer are $2,835 for a 28nm node versus $8,695 for a 3nm node.\nChart 2\nChart 3 shows capex spend by node for ICs. Capex spend (building + equipment) at 28nm is $100,000 per wafer, which more than triples to $320,000 at 3nm.\nChart 3\nCustomer Base\nChart 4 shows that Apple (AAPL) was the largest customer of TSMC in 2020, representing 21% of revenues. Keep in mind that in addition to TSMC’s processors going into iPhones, TSMC also fabricates the M1, which powers the new MacBook Air, 13-inch MacBook Pro, and Mac mini and is Apple's first custom-designed Arm-based chip for Mac.\nChart 4\nTSMC has upgraded its manufacturing capabilities countless times to keep Apple’s latest chips at the bleeding edge of processor technologies, since its first chip produced for Apple was installed in the Apple iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus, which were introduced on September 9, 2014.\nChart 5 shows that the number of transistors increased from 2 billion for the iPhone 6 to 11.8 billion for the current iPhone 12.\nChart 5\nThus, investors must consider that:\nAny positive developments from Apple will impact TSMC positively, and positive technological developments from TSMC will impact Apple positively. For example, as long as TSMC is the major manufacturer of Apple chips, growth in Apple or new technologies developed by Apple requiring chips (such as Auto or ADAS), then TSMC will gain.\nSecondly, because of capacity limitations and technology node demands, any expansion in capacity from TSMC will be beneficial to Apple as it moves to smaller nodes while consuming about 25% of TSMC’s chip output on a revenue basis.\nUMC is less transparent and doesn’t provide a breakdown by customer. UMC’s primary customers include premier integrated device manufacturers, such as Texas Instruments(NASDAQ:TXN)and Intel Mobile(NASDAQ:INTC), plus leading fabless design companies, such as MediaTek(OTCPK:MDTKF), Realtek, Qualcomm(NASDAQ:QCOM)and Novatek.\nIn August 2018, UMC announced it would pause research for advancing the productional technology of chips under 10nm nodes. As shown in the figure above, since 2018, the corresponding proportion of the company's advanced processes has been reduced to zero, but for mature nodes such as 65nm and 28nm, the proportion has been increased.\nInvestor Takeaways: Is TSM Or UMC Stock A Better Buy?\nBoth companies compete in the same industry, but their business models are a differentiating metric. TSMC generates most of its revenue on nodes smaller than UMC’s (Chart 1), and most of its planned capex will focus new fabs making ICs at increasing smaller nodes.\nTSMC Positives\nTSMC’s share of the pure-play foundry market was 57% share in 2020, up from 55% in 2019. UMC’s share was constant at slightly less than 8%.\nTSMC benefits from the smaller nodes. Although capex increases with decreasing nodes (Chart 3), so too does gross profit (Chart 2). Thus, TSM has higher revenues than UMC: $48.2B vs $6.283B.\n\nTSMC also has higher annual earnings (EBITDA): $33B vs. UMC $2.349B.\nTSMC ($613B) has a higher market cap than UMC ($23.4B).\nTSMC has more cash on hand: $23.3B vs. UMC ($3.76B).\nTSMC has a higher EPS (3.99) than UMC (0.59).\n\nSeeking Alpha’s quant ratings are derived by measuring a stock's financial metrics against other stocks in the sector on the basis of value, growth, profitability, momentum and analysts’ earnings revisions. In Table 1, both stocks have high rankings. TSMC has a quant rating of 4.63 and UMC has a quant rating of 4.54.\n\nGross margin for TSMC and UMC is shown in Table 2. A positive for TSMC, gross margin is significantly ahead of UMC and the average of all foundries. The Street expects 3Q21 gross margin will improve to 52.9%, given a higher revenue scale, tight foundry supply and improved efficiency of 5nm production.\n\nUMC Positives\nThe comparison of other financial metrics, UMC has stronger financials:\n\nUMC has a lower P/E ratio than TSM: 21.8 vs 28.9\nUMC has less debt than TSM: $2.47B vs $15.4B.\nUMC YTD gains are higher at: 10.558 vs. TSM (8.922).\n\nTable 3 shows stock performance in percent growth for TSM and UMC. In the past year, UMC stock has outperformed TSMC, and did so in the 3-year and 5-year period. But in a 10-year period, TSMC is the better choice.\n\nTSMC is the clear winner over UMC going forward. The company chose its strategy to build chips at the <7nm node. The fact that it is building a 28nm fab in China, the “sweet spot” for UMC, coupled with a new 28nm SMIC (OTCQX:SMICY) fab, will mean lost market share at this node for UMC.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UMC":0.9,"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148910244,"gmtCreate":1625913613588,"gmtModify":1633936144919,"author":{"id":"4088680581294190","authorId":"4088680581294190","name":"Rabbani","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa0dc93a68fa410249f2e529f3acf988","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088680581294190","idStr":"4088680581294190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help to like pls","listText":"Help to like pls","text":"Help to like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148910244","repostId":"2150053623","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150053623","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625883910,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2150053623?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 10:25","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150053623","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an infla","content":"<p>Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge</p><p><blockquote>投资者必须决定他们是否认为经济增长停滞是比通胀飙升更大的威胁</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ec205cf1616aaba5573cc40240a899\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> ?</p><p><blockquote>对通货膨胀失控的担忧已经被对全球经济增长迅速放缓的担忧所取代——这使得美国投资者度过了一个漫长的假期——但这种新的说法正确吗<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>？</blockquote></p><p> A Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>国债反弹变成了买盘狂潮，导致长期收益率大幅走低。这使得所谓的通货再膨胀交易失去了任何剩余的动力，该交易青睐对周期性更敏感的公司的股票，预计这些公司将从价格上涨和经济增长加速中受益最多。</blockquote></p><p> What changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>什么变了？管理着6050亿美元资产的纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温(Lauren Goodwin)表示，市场叙事的转变有三个重要因素。</blockquote></p><p> The first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，首先是美联储对数据的反应方式发生了明显的变化，投资者不再希望政策制定者像之前认为的那样容忍经济过热和通胀上升。二是虽然经济增长预计将保持强劲，但增长速度预计已经见顶。第三，人们担心导致新冠肺炎的三角洲和其他冠状病毒变种的传播可能会迫使新一轮限制，这将给全球经济活动带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"</p><p><blockquote>古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“总的来说，这与几周前的市场共识叙事截然不同，当时的焦点都是刺激和过热。”他指出，投资者现在必须问：“这种新的叙事是正确的吗？”一个？”</blockquote></p><p> The real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周真正的痛苦在于美国国债市场，该市场的反弹导致长期收益率大幅下跌，价格上涨。此次上涨很大程度上归因于美国国债空头被迫进行空头回补，他们担心通胀，造成了某种程度的买入狂潮，周四将10年期国债收益率推至1.25%以下的五个月低点，然后最终回落。</blockquote></p><p> But analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，此举至少在一定程度上也反映了对全球经济增长前景的合理担忧。</blockquote></p><p> That Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .</p><p><blockquote>周四收益率暴跌以及随之而来的增长担忧引发了股市大范围抛售，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数从历史高点回落，而道琼斯工业平均指数则在盘中低点下跌了500多点。周五股市收盘时收复跌幅，然后走高，三大股指均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> One casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个受害者是股市通货再膨胀交易。小盘股罗素2000指数RUT（#phrase-company？ref=company%7CRUT；onlineSignificance=passing-mention）连续第二周下跌1.1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数周上涨0.4%。价值股表现不佳，罗素1000价值指数下跌0.3%，罗素1000成长指数上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>研究公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)高级市场经济学家奥利弗·琼斯(Oliver Jones)在周五的一份报告中表示：“‘通货再膨胀’和‘轮换’交易——与对经济从大流行和通胀上升中快速、广泛复苏的乐观情绪相关——可以说早在第一季度末就一直在萎靡不振，但显然受到了打击。”</blockquote></p><p> Sectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，从通货再膨胀/轮动叙事中受益最多的能源和金融等行业以及价值等因素表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Jones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>琼斯认为，随着供应限制影响经济活动，对美国经济复苏的乐观情绪达到顶峰是有道理的。全球增长预期也可能面临压力，中国经济可能继续令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，从绝对值来看，美国经济仍有望实现非常强劲的复苏，远远超过2008年全球金融危机后的复苏。他认为，美国的核心通胀可能比预期更加持久。</blockquote></p><p> That sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这为“轮换/通货再膨胀贸易标签在未来几个季度可能会逐渐变得不那么有用”的情况奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，特别是部分交易，包括大多数股市的快速上涨和能源公司的优异表现，目前可能已经结束，而考虑到美国的增长和通胀路径，美国国债收益率的下降可能是“过度反应”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将在未来一周看到通胀和增长方面的证据。6月份消费者价格指数定于周二发布，生产者价格指数定于周三发布。本周将公布大量其他经济数据，包括周五公布的6月份零售销售数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>然后是企业财报季的开始，预计将迎来另一个高峰，因为与去年大流行初期相比，第二季度的利润大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)在周五创纪录的收盘价后表示：“随着下周财报季的开始，标准设定得相当高，美国企业界最好再创辉煌的季度，否则可能会出现一些失望的多头。”</blockquote></p><p> Goodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.</p><p><blockquote>古德温表示，投资者的选择可以归结为要么倾向于有利于周期性股票和短期资产的旧说法，要么倾向于预计经济增长将更加低迷和乏力的新说法，就像大流行之前一样，有利于成长型股票和防御性股票部门。</blockquote></p><p> The best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，古德温说，最好的反应可能是两者兼而有之。</blockquote></p><p> Reflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.</p><p><blockquote>通货再膨胀在短期内可能仍有一定的运行空间。她表示，儿童税收抵免付款的分配将于本月晚些时候开始，而随着儿童重返校园和额外失业救济金到期，劳动力短缺可能会在未来几个月得到缓解，而消费者则坐拥可观的储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，与此同时，增长和通胀正在见顶，各资产类别的估值都在扩大。她表示，虽然仍保持周期性倾斜，但不断变化的背景为采取更平衡的投资组合方法提供了评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，投资者需要在更具选择性的环境中，而不是水涨船高的环境中，密切关注能够利用不断变化的趋势并将价格上涨转嫁给消费者的行业和个别公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 10:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge</p><p><blockquote>投资者必须决定他们是否认为经济增长停滞是比通胀飙升更大的威胁</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ec205cf1616aaba5573cc40240a899\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> ?</p><p><blockquote>对通货膨胀失控的担忧已经被对全球经济增长迅速放缓的担忧所取代——这使得美国投资者度过了一个漫长的假期——但这种新的说法正确吗<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>？</blockquote></p><p> A Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>国债反弹变成了买盘狂潮，导致长期收益率大幅走低。这使得所谓的通货再膨胀交易失去了任何剩余的动力，该交易青睐对周期性更敏感的公司的股票，预计这些公司将从价格上涨和经济增长加速中受益最多。</blockquote></p><p> What changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>什么变了？管理着6050亿美元资产的纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温(Lauren Goodwin)表示，市场叙事的转变有三个重要因素。</blockquote></p><p> The first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，首先是美联储对数据的反应方式发生了明显的变化，投资者不再希望政策制定者像之前认为的那样容忍经济过热和通胀上升。二是虽然经济增长预计将保持强劲，但增长速度预计已经见顶。第三，人们担心导致新冠肺炎的三角洲和其他冠状病毒变种的传播可能会迫使新一轮限制，这将给全球经济活动带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"</p><p><blockquote>古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“总的来说，这与几周前的市场共识叙事截然不同，当时的焦点都是刺激和过热。”他指出，投资者现在必须问：“这种新的叙事是正确的吗？”一个？”</blockquote></p><p> The real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周真正的痛苦在于美国国债市场，该市场的反弹导致长期收益率大幅下跌，价格上涨。此次上涨很大程度上归因于美国国债空头被迫进行空头回补，他们担心通胀，造成了某种程度的买入狂潮，周四将10年期国债收益率推至1.25%以下的五个月低点，然后最终回落。</blockquote></p><p> But analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，此举至少在一定程度上也反映了对全球经济增长前景的合理担忧。</blockquote></p><p> That Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .</p><p><blockquote>周四收益率暴跌以及随之而来的增长担忧引发了股市大范围抛售，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数从历史高点回落，而道琼斯工业平均指数则在盘中低点下跌了500多点。周五股市收盘时收复跌幅，然后走高，三大股指均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> One casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个受害者是股市通货再膨胀交易。小盘股罗素2000指数RUT（#phrase-company？ref=company%7CRUT；onlineSignificance=passing-mention）连续第二周下跌1.1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数周上涨0.4%。价值股表现不佳，罗素1000价值指数下跌0.3%，罗素1000成长指数上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>研究公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)高级市场经济学家奥利弗·琼斯(Oliver Jones)在周五的一份报告中表示：“‘通货再膨胀’和‘轮换’交易——与对经济从大流行和通胀上升中快速、广泛复苏的乐观情绪相关——可以说早在第一季度末就一直在萎靡不振，但显然受到了打击。”</blockquote></p><p> Sectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，从通货再膨胀/轮动叙事中受益最多的能源和金融等行业以及价值等因素表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Jones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>琼斯认为，随着供应限制影响经济活动，对美国经济复苏的乐观情绪达到顶峰是有道理的。全球增长预期也可能面临压力，中国经济可能继续令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，从绝对值来看，美国经济仍有望实现非常强劲的复苏，远远超过2008年全球金融危机后的复苏。他认为，美国的核心通胀可能比预期更加持久。</blockquote></p><p> That sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这为“轮换/通货再膨胀贸易标签在未来几个季度可能会逐渐变得不那么有用”的情况奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，特别是部分交易，包括大多数股市的快速上涨和能源公司的优异表现，目前可能已经结束，而考虑到美国的增长和通胀路径，美国国债收益率的下降可能是“过度反应”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将在未来一周看到通胀和增长方面的证据。6月份消费者价格指数定于周二发布，生产者价格指数定于周三发布。本周将公布大量其他经济数据，包括周五公布的6月份零售销售数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>然后是企业财报季的开始，预计将迎来另一个高峰，因为与去年大流行初期相比，第二季度的利润大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)在周五创纪录的收盘价后表示：“随着下周财报季的开始，标准设定得相当高，美国企业界最好再创辉煌的季度，否则可能会出现一些失望的多头。”</blockquote></p><p> Goodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.</p><p><blockquote>古德温表示，投资者的选择可以归结为要么倾向于有利于周期性股票和短期资产的旧说法，要么倾向于预计经济增长将更加低迷和乏力的新说法，就像大流行之前一样，有利于成长型股票和防御性股票部门。</blockquote></p><p> The best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，古德温说，最好的反应可能是两者兼而有之。</blockquote></p><p> Reflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.</p><p><blockquote>通货再膨胀在短期内可能仍有一定的运行空间。她表示，儿童税收抵免付款的分配将于本月晚些时候开始，而随着儿童重返校园和额外失业救济金到期，劳动力短缺可能会在未来几个月得到缓解，而消费者则坐拥可观的储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，与此同时，增长和通胀正在见顶，各资产类别的估值都在扩大。她表示，虽然仍保持周期性倾斜，但不断变化的背景为采取更平衡的投资组合方法提供了评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，投资者需要在更具选择性的环境中，而不是水涨船高的环境中，密切关注能够利用不断变化的趋势并将价格上涨转嫁给消费者的行业和个别公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crazy-week-for-u-s-stocks-came-with-a-change-in-the-market-narrative-should-investors-believe-it-11625865324?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crazy-week-for-u-s-stocks-came-with-a-change-in-the-market-narrative-should-investors-believe-it-11625865324?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150053623","content_text":"Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge\n\nFears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right one ?\nA Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.\nWhat changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.\nThe first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.\n\"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"\nThe real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.\nBut analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .\nThat Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .\nOne casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.\n\"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.\nSectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.\nJones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.\nAt the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.\nThat sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.\nIn particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.\nInvestors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.\nAnd then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.\n\"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.\nGoodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.\nThe best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.\nReflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.\nAt the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.\nInvestors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148910600,"gmtCreate":1625913600101,"gmtModify":1633936145043,"author":{"id":"4088680581294190","authorId":"4088680581294190","name":"Rabbani","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa0dc93a68fa410249f2e529f3acf988","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088680581294190","idStr":"4088680581294190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help to like pls","listText":"Help to like pls","text":"Help 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pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899111572","repostId":"1119723223","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2041,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144781121,"gmtCreate":1626314555363,"gmtModify":1633927956880,"author":{"id":"4088680581294190","authorId":"4088680581294190","name":"Rabbani","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa0dc93a68fa410249f2e529f3acf988","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088680581294190","authorIdStr":"4088680581294190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help like pls and i'll return the favour on this comment","listText":"Help like pls and i'll return the favour on this comment","text":"Help like pls and i'll return the favour on this comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144781121","repostId":"2151454562","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148910600,"gmtCreate":1625913600101,"gmtModify":1633936145043,"author":{"id":"4088680581294190","authorId":"4088680581294190","name":"Rabbani","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa0dc93a68fa410249f2e529f3acf988","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088680581294190","authorIdStr":"4088680581294190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help to like pls","listText":"Help to like pls","text":"Help to like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148910600","repostId":"2150306047","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802211799,"gmtCreate":1627782160211,"gmtModify":1633756478310,"author":{"id":"4088680581294190","authorId":"4088680581294190","name":"Rabbani","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa0dc93a68fa410249f2e529f3acf988","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088680581294190","authorIdStr":"4088680581294190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like for like","listText":"Like for like","text":"Like for like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802211799","repostId":"2155001152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802139550,"gmtCreate":1627729624570,"gmtModify":1633756763053,"author":{"id":"4088680581294190","authorId":"4088680581294190","name":"Rabbani","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa0dc93a68fa410249f2e529f3acf988","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088680581294190","authorIdStr":"4088680581294190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like for like?","listText":"Like for like?","text":"Like for like?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802139550","repostId":"1152039134","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152039134","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627689014,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152039134?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 07:50","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jim Cramer: Robinhood's IPO Debacle Shows How Little Has Changed Over the Decades<blockquote>吉姆·克莱默：Robinhood的IPO惨败表明几十年来变化很小</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152039134","media":"The Street","summary":"Take it from a guy who knows, the process is really flawed.\n\nWhat should Robinhood (HOOD) -Get Repor","content":"<p>  Take it from a guy who knows, the process is really flawed.  What should Robinhood&nbsp;(<b>HOOD</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;have done to avoid the IPO debacle?</p><p><blockquote>听一个知道的人说，这个过程真的有缺陷。罗宾汉应该做什么（<b>发动机罩</b>)-获取报告为避免IPO失败做了哪些工作？</blockquote></p><p> I can't speak to what happened on Thursday, who was in charge, who argued for what.</p><p><blockquote>我不能说周四发生了什么，谁是负责人，谁为什么辩护。</blockquote></p><p> I can only tell you what I argued for 22 years ago whenTheStreet.comwas coming public. First, as the founder, I was determined to award all the subscribers with stock to demonstrate my loyalty to them.</p><p><blockquote>我只能告诉你22年前TheStreet.com上市时我争论了什么。首先，作为创始人，我决心用股票奖励所有订阅者，以表明我对他们的忠诚。</blockquote></p><p> Second, I was insistent that the deal be priced much lower than the underwriters wanted. We had already made a ton of money for initial investors. Why not leave a lot on the table and let the new investors do well?</p><p><blockquote>其次，我坚持认为这笔交易的定价要比承销商想要的低得多。我们已经为初始投资者赚了一大笔钱。为什么不把很多留在桌面上，让新投资者做好呢？</blockquote></p><p> Third, I wanted enough stock placed with good hands that there would be no flippers and I wanted close coordination with the various brokers who tended to infiltrate the process and hijack the openings by batching market orders and opening the stocks way too high and then shorting them all the way down.</p><p><blockquote>第三，我希望有足够多的股票交给好人，这样就不会有脚蹼，我希望与各种经纪人密切协调，这些经纪人往往会渗透到流程中，通过批量市场订单、开仓过高然后做空股票来劫持开盘。一路下跌。</blockquote></p><p> I lost on every single point.</p><p><blockquote>我在每一点上都输了。</blockquote></p><p> The underwriters said we could not allocate to subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>承销商说我们不能分配给认购者。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the price of the deal would not be controlled to where we could have a small pop so everyone would win.</p><p><blockquote>第二，交易的价格不会被控制在我们可以有一个小的流行，这样每个人都会赢。</blockquote></p><p> Third, the over-the-transom orders, those who placed market orders, were batched by an outfit called Knight Securities, not the underwriter, Goldman Sachs, and it opened at $62 -- it wasn't even clear what the opening price was it was so chaotic -- traded to $66, like how Robinhood traded to $39 and change, and then never traded higher.</p><p><blockquote>第三，场外订单，即那些下市价订单的人，是由一家名为Knight Securities的机构分批的，而不是承销商高盛，开盘价是62美元——甚至不清楚开盘价是多少，太混乱了——交易到66美元，就像Robinhood交易到39美元然后改变，然后再也没有交易更高。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone who bought that day lost money.</p><p><blockquote>那天买的都亏了。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone who sold that day made money.</p><p><blockquote>那天卖出的每个人都赚钱了。</blockquote></p><p> No subscribers got in, most bought at the opening, from what I can tell, and I alienated everyone except the big dogs.</p><p><blockquote>据我所知，没有订阅者加入，大多数是在开盘时购买的，我疏远了除了大狗之外的所有人。</blockquote></p><p> It is amazing that here we are in 2021 and the process, while letting clients in, failed to price it so that Robinhood left money on the table. Believe me, it was possible to do so. But the underwriters and the management chose not to do so. We don't know which side screwed up, or both, but there was a successful blueprint; believe me, if I knew what it was in 1999, they knew what it is now.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，我们现在是2021年，这个过程虽然让客户进入，但却未能定价，因此Robinhood将钱留在了桌面上。相信我，这是可能的。但承销商和管理层选择不这样做。我们不知道哪一方搞砸了，或者两者都搞砸了，但有一个成功的蓝图；相信我，如果我知道1999年是什么，他们也知道现在是什么。</blockquote></p><p> I always regretted what happened. Most people blamed me as I was the face of the process. I was astounded by how horrendous it was and did not \"take the long view\" because the long view sucked.</p><p><blockquote>我一直对发生的事感到后悔。大多数人责怪我，因为我是这个过程的代言人。我被它的可怕程度震惊了，没有“从长计议”，因为从长计议很糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Why do these things go wrong? I do blame the underwriter because they do this every day and the principals only do it once. They have to keep the management from betraying the shareholders because the shareholders think that it is management's fault. No underwriter is EVER going to say that they screwed up. That's not in the cards.</p><p><blockquote>为什么这些事情会出错？我确实责怪承销商，因为他们每天都这样做，而委托人只做一次。他们必须阻止管理层背叛股东，因为股东认为这是管理层的错。没有承销商会说他们搞砸了。那是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> So, we sit back and we marvel about how badly the deal went even as it was well within the province of the underwriter and the principals to make it so Robinhood left more on the table.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们坐下来，惊叹于这笔交易进行得有多糟糕，尽管它完全在承销商和委托人的范围内，所以罗宾汉留下了更多。</blockquote></p><p> Greed?</p><p><blockquote>贪婪？</blockquote></p><p> Stupidity?</p><p><blockquote>愚蠢？</blockquote></p><p> How about poor execution and a lack of transparency that shows how badly it was handled.</p><p><blockquote>糟糕的执行和缺乏透明度表明事情处理得有多糟糕怎么样？</blockquote></p><p> Just like the offering ofTheStreet.com.</p><p><blockquote>就像TheStreet.com的产品一样。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jim Cramer: Robinhood's IPO Debacle Shows How Little Has Changed Over the Decades<blockquote>吉姆·克莱默：Robinhood的IPO惨败表明几十年来变化很小</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJim Cramer: Robinhood's IPO Debacle Shows How Little Has Changed Over the Decades<blockquote>吉姆·克莱默：Robinhood的IPO惨败表明几十年来变化很小</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 07:50</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Take it from a guy who knows, the process is really flawed.  What should Robinhood&nbsp;(<b>HOOD</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;have done to avoid the IPO debacle?</p><p><blockquote>听一个知道的人说，这个过程真的有缺陷。罗宾汉应该做什么（<b>发动机罩</b>)-获取报告为避免IPO失败做了哪些工作？</blockquote></p><p> I can't speak to what happened on Thursday, who was in charge, who argued for what.</p><p><blockquote>我不能说周四发生了什么，谁是负责人，谁为什么辩护。</blockquote></p><p> I can only tell you what I argued for 22 years ago whenTheStreet.comwas coming public. First, as the founder, I was determined to award all the subscribers with stock to demonstrate my loyalty to them.</p><p><blockquote>我只能告诉你22年前TheStreet.com上市时我争论了什么。首先，作为创始人，我决心用股票奖励所有订阅者，以表明我对他们的忠诚。</blockquote></p><p> Second, I was insistent that the deal be priced much lower than the underwriters wanted. We had already made a ton of money for initial investors. Why not leave a lot on the table and let the new investors do well?</p><p><blockquote>其次，我坚持认为这笔交易的定价要比承销商想要的低得多。我们已经为初始投资者赚了一大笔钱。为什么不把很多留在桌面上，让新投资者做好呢？</blockquote></p><p> Third, I wanted enough stock placed with good hands that there would be no flippers and I wanted close coordination with the various brokers who tended to infiltrate the process and hijack the openings by batching market orders and opening the stocks way too high and then shorting them all the way down.</p><p><blockquote>第三，我希望有足够多的股票交给好人，这样就不会有脚蹼，我希望与各种经纪人密切协调，这些经纪人往往会渗透到流程中，通过批量市场订单、开仓过高然后做空股票来劫持开盘。一路下跌。</blockquote></p><p> I lost on every single point.</p><p><blockquote>我在每一点上都输了。</blockquote></p><p> The underwriters said we could not allocate to subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>承销商说我们不能分配给认购者。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the price of the deal would not be controlled to where we could have a small pop so everyone would win.</p><p><blockquote>第二，交易的价格不会被控制在我们可以有一个小的流行，这样每个人都会赢。</blockquote></p><p> Third, the over-the-transom orders, those who placed market orders, were batched by an outfit called Knight Securities, not the underwriter, Goldman Sachs, and it opened at $62 -- it wasn't even clear what the opening price was it was so chaotic -- traded to $66, like how Robinhood traded to $39 and change, and then never traded higher.</p><p><blockquote>第三，场外订单，即那些下市价订单的人，是由一家名为Knight Securities的机构分批的，而不是承销商高盛，开盘价是62美元——甚至不清楚开盘价是多少，太混乱了——交易到66美元，就像Robinhood交易到39美元然后改变，然后再也没有交易更高。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone who bought that day lost money.</p><p><blockquote>那天买的都亏了。</blockquote></p><p> Everyone who sold that day made money.</p><p><blockquote>那天卖出的每个人都赚钱了。</blockquote></p><p> No subscribers got in, most bought at the opening, from what I can tell, and I alienated everyone except the big dogs.</p><p><blockquote>据我所知，没有订阅者加入，大多数是在开盘时购买的，我疏远了除了大狗之外的所有人。</blockquote></p><p> It is amazing that here we are in 2021 and the process, while letting clients in, failed to price it so that Robinhood left money on the table. Believe me, it was possible to do so. But the underwriters and the management chose not to do so. We don't know which side screwed up, or both, but there was a successful blueprint; believe me, if I knew what it was in 1999, they knew what it is now.</p><p><blockquote>令人惊讶的是，我们现在是2021年，这个过程虽然让客户进入，但却未能定价，因此Robinhood将钱留在了桌面上。相信我，这是可能的。但承销商和管理层选择不这样做。我们不知道哪一方搞砸了，或者两者都搞砸了，但有一个成功的蓝图；相信我，如果我知道1999年是什么，他们也知道现在是什么。</blockquote></p><p> I always regretted what happened. Most people blamed me as I was the face of the process. I was astounded by how horrendous it was and did not \"take the long view\" because the long view sucked.</p><p><blockquote>我一直对发生的事感到后悔。大多数人责怪我，因为我是这个过程的代言人。我被它的可怕程度震惊了，没有“从长计议”，因为从长计议很糟糕。</blockquote></p><p> Why do these things go wrong? I do blame the underwriter because they do this every day and the principals only do it once. They have to keep the management from betraying the shareholders because the shareholders think that it is management's fault. No underwriter is EVER going to say that they screwed up. That's not in the cards.</p><p><blockquote>为什么这些事情会出错？我确实责怪承销商，因为他们每天都这样做，而委托人只做一次。他们必须阻止管理层背叛股东，因为股东认为这是管理层的错。没有承销商会说他们搞砸了。那是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> So, we sit back and we marvel about how badly the deal went even as it was well within the province of the underwriter and the principals to make it so Robinhood left more on the table.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们坐下来，惊叹于这笔交易进行得有多糟糕，尽管它完全在承销商和委托人的范围内，所以罗宾汉留下了更多。</blockquote></p><p> Greed?</p><p><blockquote>贪婪？</blockquote></p><p> Stupidity?</p><p><blockquote>愚蠢？</blockquote></p><p> How about poor execution and a lack of transparency that shows how badly it was handled.</p><p><blockquote>糟糕的执行和缺乏透明度表明事情处理得有多糟糕怎么样？</blockquote></p><p> Just like the offering ofTheStreet.com.</p><p><blockquote>就像TheStreet.com的产品一样。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/cramer-robinhood-ipo-debacle-thestreet-7-30-21\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HOOD":"Robinhood"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/cramer-robinhood-ipo-debacle-thestreet-7-30-21","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152039134","content_text":"Take it from a guy who knows, the process is really flawed.\n\nWhat should Robinhood (HOOD) -Get Report have done to avoid the IPO debacle?\nI can't speak to what happened on Thursday, who was in charge, who argued for what.\nI can only tell you what I argued for 22 years ago whenTheStreet.comwas coming public. First, as the founder, I was determined to award all the subscribers with stock to demonstrate my loyalty to them.\nSecond, I was insistent that the deal be priced much lower than the underwriters wanted. We had already made a ton of money for initial investors. Why not leave a lot on the table and let the new investors do well?\nThird, I wanted enough stock placed with good hands that there would be no flippers and I wanted close coordination with the various brokers who tended to infiltrate the process and hijack the openings by batching market orders and opening the stocks way too high and then shorting them all the way down.\nI lost on every single point.\nThe underwriters said we could not allocate to subscribers.\nSecond, the price of the deal would not be controlled to where we could have a small pop so everyone would win.\nThird, the over-the-transom orders, those who placed market orders, were batched by an outfit called Knight Securities, not the underwriter, Goldman Sachs, and it opened at $62 -- it wasn't even clear what the opening price was it was so chaotic -- traded to $66, like how Robinhood traded to $39 and change, and then never traded higher.\nEveryone who bought that day lost money.\nEveryone who sold that day made money.\nNo subscribers got in, most bought at the opening, from what I can tell, and I alienated everyone except the big dogs.\nIt is amazing that here we are in 2021 and the process, while letting clients in, failed to price it so that Robinhood left money on the table. Believe me, it was possible to do so. But the underwriters and the management chose not to do so. We don't know which side screwed up, or both, but there was a successful blueprint; believe me, if I knew what it was in 1999, they knew what it is now.\nI always regretted what happened. Most people blamed me as I was the face of the process. I was astounded by how horrendous it was and did not \"take the long view\" because the long view sucked.\nWhy do these things go wrong? I do blame the underwriter because they do this every day and the principals only do it once. They have to keep the management from betraying the shareholders because the shareholders think that it is management's fault. No underwriter is EVER going to say that they screwed up. That's not in the cards.\nSo, we sit back and we marvel about how badly the deal went even as it was well within the province of the underwriter and the principals to make it so Robinhood left more on the table.\nGreed?\nStupidity?\nHow about poor execution and a lack of transparency that shows how badly it was handled.\nJust like the offering ofTheStreet.com.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HOOD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148910794,"gmtCreate":1625913643318,"gmtModify":1633936144550,"author":{"id":"4088680581294190","authorId":"4088680581294190","name":"Rabbani","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa0dc93a68fa410249f2e529f3acf988","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088680581294190","authorIdStr":"4088680581294190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like please thank you","listText":"Like please thank you","text":"Like please thank you","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148910794","repostId":"2150379822","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148910244,"gmtCreate":1625913613588,"gmtModify":1633936144919,"author":{"id":"4088680581294190","authorId":"4088680581294190","name":"Rabbani","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa0dc93a68fa410249f2e529f3acf988","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088680581294190","authorIdStr":"4088680581294190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help to like pls","listText":"Help to like pls","text":"Help to like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148910244","repostId":"2150053623","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150053623","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625883910,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2150053623?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 10:25","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150053623","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an infla","content":"<p>Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge</p><p><blockquote>投资者必须决定他们是否认为经济增长停滞是比通胀飙升更大的威胁</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ec205cf1616aaba5573cc40240a899\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> ?</p><p><blockquote>对通货膨胀失控的担忧已经被对全球经济增长迅速放缓的担忧所取代——这使得美国投资者度过了一个漫长的假期——但这种新的说法正确吗<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>？</blockquote></p><p> A Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>国债反弹变成了买盘狂潮，导致长期收益率大幅走低。这使得所谓的通货再膨胀交易失去了任何剩余的动力，该交易青睐对周期性更敏感的公司的股票，预计这些公司将从价格上涨和经济增长加速中受益最多。</blockquote></p><p> What changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>什么变了？管理着6050亿美元资产的纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温(Lauren Goodwin)表示，市场叙事的转变有三个重要因素。</blockquote></p><p> The first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，首先是美联储对数据的反应方式发生了明显的变化，投资者不再希望政策制定者像之前认为的那样容忍经济过热和通胀上升。二是虽然经济增长预计将保持强劲，但增长速度预计已经见顶。第三，人们担心导致新冠肺炎的三角洲和其他冠状病毒变种的传播可能会迫使新一轮限制，这将给全球经济活动带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"</p><p><blockquote>古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“总的来说，这与几周前的市场共识叙事截然不同，当时的焦点都是刺激和过热。”他指出，投资者现在必须问：“这种新的叙事是正确的吗？”一个？”</blockquote></p><p> The real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周真正的痛苦在于美国国债市场，该市场的反弹导致长期收益率大幅下跌，价格上涨。此次上涨很大程度上归因于美国国债空头被迫进行空头回补，他们担心通胀，造成了某种程度的买入狂潮，周四将10年期国债收益率推至1.25%以下的五个月低点，然后最终回落。</blockquote></p><p> But analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，此举至少在一定程度上也反映了对全球经济增长前景的合理担忧。</blockquote></p><p> That Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .</p><p><blockquote>周四收益率暴跌以及随之而来的增长担忧引发了股市大范围抛售，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数从历史高点回落，而道琼斯工业平均指数则在盘中低点下跌了500多点。周五股市收盘时收复跌幅，然后走高，三大股指均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> One casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个受害者是股市通货再膨胀交易。小盘股罗素2000指数RUT（#phrase-company？ref=company%7CRUT；onlineSignificance=passing-mention）连续第二周下跌1.1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数周上涨0.4%。价值股表现不佳，罗素1000价值指数下跌0.3%，罗素1000成长指数上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>研究公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)高级市场经济学家奥利弗·琼斯(Oliver Jones)在周五的一份报告中表示：“‘通货再膨胀’和‘轮换’交易——与对经济从大流行和通胀上升中快速、广泛复苏的乐观情绪相关——可以说早在第一季度末就一直在萎靡不振，但显然受到了打击。”</blockquote></p><p> Sectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，从通货再膨胀/轮动叙事中受益最多的能源和金融等行业以及价值等因素表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Jones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>琼斯认为，随着供应限制影响经济活动，对美国经济复苏的乐观情绪达到顶峰是有道理的。全球增长预期也可能面临压力，中国经济可能继续令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，从绝对值来看，美国经济仍有望实现非常强劲的复苏，远远超过2008年全球金融危机后的复苏。他认为，美国的核心通胀可能比预期更加持久。</blockquote></p><p> That sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这为“轮换/通货再膨胀贸易标签在未来几个季度可能会逐渐变得不那么有用”的情况奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，特别是部分交易，包括大多数股市的快速上涨和能源公司的优异表现，目前可能已经结束，而考虑到美国的增长和通胀路径，美国国债收益率的下降可能是“过度反应”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将在未来一周看到通胀和增长方面的证据。6月份消费者价格指数定于周二发布，生产者价格指数定于周三发布。本周将公布大量其他经济数据，包括周五公布的6月份零售销售数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>然后是企业财报季的开始，预计将迎来另一个高峰，因为与去年大流行初期相比，第二季度的利润大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)在周五创纪录的收盘价后表示：“随着下周财报季的开始，标准设定得相当高，美国企业界最好再创辉煌的季度，否则可能会出现一些失望的多头。”</blockquote></p><p> Goodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.</p><p><blockquote>古德温表示，投资者的选择可以归结为要么倾向于有利于周期性股票和短期资产的旧说法，要么倾向于预计经济增长将更加低迷和乏力的新说法，就像大流行之前一样，有利于成长型股票和防御性股票部门。</blockquote></p><p> The best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，古德温说，最好的反应可能是两者兼而有之。</blockquote></p><p> Reflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.</p><p><blockquote>通货再膨胀在短期内可能仍有一定的运行空间。她表示，儿童税收抵免付款的分配将于本月晚些时候开始，而随着儿童重返校园和额外失业救济金到期，劳动力短缺可能会在未来几个月得到缓解，而消费者则坐拥可观的储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，与此同时，增长和通胀正在见顶，各资产类别的估值都在扩大。她表示，虽然仍保持周期性倾斜，但不断变化的背景为采取更平衡的投资组合方法提供了评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，投资者需要在更具选择性的环境中，而不是水涨船高的环境中，密切关注能够利用不断变化的趋势并将价格上涨转嫁给消费者的行业和个别公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 10:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge</p><p><blockquote>投资者必须决定他们是否认为经济增长停滞是比通胀飙升更大的威胁</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ec205cf1616aaba5573cc40240a899\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> ?</p><p><blockquote>对通货膨胀失控的担忧已经被对全球经济增长迅速放缓的担忧所取代——这使得美国投资者度过了一个漫长的假期——但这种新的说法正确吗<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>？</blockquote></p><p> A Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>国债反弹变成了买盘狂潮，导致长期收益率大幅走低。这使得所谓的通货再膨胀交易失去了任何剩余的动力，该交易青睐对周期性更敏感的公司的股票，预计这些公司将从价格上涨和经济增长加速中受益最多。</blockquote></p><p> What changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>什么变了？管理着6050亿美元资产的纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温(Lauren Goodwin)表示，市场叙事的转变有三个重要因素。</blockquote></p><p> The first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，首先是美联储对数据的反应方式发生了明显的变化，投资者不再希望政策制定者像之前认为的那样容忍经济过热和通胀上升。二是虽然经济增长预计将保持强劲，但增长速度预计已经见顶。第三，人们担心导致新冠肺炎的三角洲和其他冠状病毒变种的传播可能会迫使新一轮限制，这将给全球经济活动带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"</p><p><blockquote>古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“总的来说，这与几周前的市场共识叙事截然不同，当时的焦点都是刺激和过热。”他指出，投资者现在必须问：“这种新的叙事是正确的吗？”一个？”</blockquote></p><p> The real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周真正的痛苦在于美国国债市场，该市场的反弹导致长期收益率大幅下跌，价格上涨。此次上涨很大程度上归因于美国国债空头被迫进行空头回补，他们担心通胀，造成了某种程度的买入狂潮，周四将10年期国债收益率推至1.25%以下的五个月低点，然后最终回落。</blockquote></p><p> But analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，此举至少在一定程度上也反映了对全球经济增长前景的合理担忧。</blockquote></p><p> That Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .</p><p><blockquote>周四收益率暴跌以及随之而来的增长担忧引发了股市大范围抛售，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数从历史高点回落，而道琼斯工业平均指数则在盘中低点下跌了500多点。周五股市收盘时收复跌幅，然后走高，三大股指均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> One casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个受害者是股市通货再膨胀交易。小盘股罗素2000指数RUT（#phrase-company？ref=company%7CRUT；onlineSignificance=passing-mention）连续第二周下跌1.1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数周上涨0.4%。价值股表现不佳，罗素1000价值指数下跌0.3%，罗素1000成长指数上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>研究公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)高级市场经济学家奥利弗·琼斯(Oliver Jones)在周五的一份报告中表示：“‘通货再膨胀’和‘轮换’交易——与对经济从大流行和通胀上升中快速、广泛复苏的乐观情绪相关——可以说早在第一季度末就一直在萎靡不振，但显然受到了打击。”</blockquote></p><p> Sectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，从通货再膨胀/轮动叙事中受益最多的能源和金融等行业以及价值等因素表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Jones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>琼斯认为，随着供应限制影响经济活动，对美国经济复苏的乐观情绪达到顶峰是有道理的。全球增长预期也可能面临压力，中国经济可能继续令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，从绝对值来看，美国经济仍有望实现非常强劲的复苏，远远超过2008年全球金融危机后的复苏。他认为，美国的核心通胀可能比预期更加持久。</blockquote></p><p> That sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这为“轮换/通货再膨胀贸易标签在未来几个季度可能会逐渐变得不那么有用”的情况奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，特别是部分交易，包括大多数股市的快速上涨和能源公司的优异表现，目前可能已经结束，而考虑到美国的增长和通胀路径，美国国债收益率的下降可能是“过度反应”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将在未来一周看到通胀和增长方面的证据。6月份消费者价格指数定于周二发布，生产者价格指数定于周三发布。本周将公布大量其他经济数据，包括周五公布的6月份零售销售数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>然后是企业财报季的开始，预计将迎来另一个高峰，因为与去年大流行初期相比，第二季度的利润大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)在周五创纪录的收盘价后表示：“随着下周财报季的开始，标准设定得相当高，美国企业界最好再创辉煌的季度，否则可能会出现一些失望的多头。”</blockquote></p><p> Goodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.</p><p><blockquote>古德温表示，投资者的选择可以归结为要么倾向于有利于周期性股票和短期资产的旧说法，要么倾向于预计经济增长将更加低迷和乏力的新说法，就像大流行之前一样，有利于成长型股票和防御性股票部门。</blockquote></p><p> The best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，古德温说，最好的反应可能是两者兼而有之。</blockquote></p><p> Reflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.</p><p><blockquote>通货再膨胀在短期内可能仍有一定的运行空间。她表示，儿童税收抵免付款的分配将于本月晚些时候开始，而随着儿童重返校园和额外失业救济金到期，劳动力短缺可能会在未来几个月得到缓解，而消费者则坐拥可观的储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，与此同时，增长和通胀正在见顶，各资产类别的估值都在扩大。她表示，虽然仍保持周期性倾斜，但不断变化的背景为采取更平衡的投资组合方法提供了评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，投资者需要在更具选择性的环境中，而不是水涨船高的环境中，密切关注能够利用不断变化的趋势并将价格上涨转嫁给消费者的行业和个别公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crazy-week-for-u-s-stocks-came-with-a-change-in-the-market-narrative-should-investors-believe-it-11625865324?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crazy-week-for-u-s-stocks-came-with-a-change-in-the-market-narrative-should-investors-believe-it-11625865324?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150053623","content_text":"Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge\n\nFears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right one ?\nA Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.\nWhat changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.\nThe first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.\n\"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"\nThe real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.\nBut analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .\nThat Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .\nOne casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.\n\"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.\nSectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.\nJones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.\nAt the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.\nThat sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.\nIn particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.\nInvestors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.\nAnd then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.\n\"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.\nGoodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.\nThe best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.\nReflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.\nAt the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.\nInvestors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":330,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148910456,"gmtCreate":1625913627275,"gmtModify":1633936144674,"author":{"id":"4088680581294190","authorId":"4088680581294190","name":"Rabbani","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa0dc93a68fa410249f2e529f3acf988","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088680581294190","authorIdStr":"4088680581294190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Help me like pls","listText":"Help me like pls","text":"Help me like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148910456","repostId":"1145284684","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145284684","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625878443,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145284684?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 08:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Taiwan Semiconductor Vs. United Microelectronics Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>台积电与联合微电子股票：哪个更值得购买？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145284684","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTSMC is the world’s largest foundry for making ICs for fabless semiconductor companies, man","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>TSMC is the world’s largest foundry for making ICs for fabless semiconductor companies, manufacturing 11,617 different products using 281 distinct technologies for 510 different customers.</li>  <li>TSMC and fellow Taiwan foundry United Microelectronics Corporation are expected to benefit from a chip-supply crisis that is adversely impacting automakers.</li>  <li>TSMC benefits from a gross margin nearly twice that of UMC.</li>  <li>40% of revenues are from nodes &lt;14nm, below the smallest node of UMC.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80e662ebb3b78dd0445ecc891cf8986\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>BING-JHEN HONG/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>台积电是全球最大的为无晶圆厂半导体公司制造IC的代工厂，使用281种不同的技术为510个不同的客户制造11,617种不同的产品。</li><li>台积电和台湾代工厂联合微电子公司预计将从对汽车制造商产生不利影响的芯片供应危机中受益。</li><li>台积电受益于近两倍于联电的毛利率。</li><li>40%的收入来自&lt;14nm的节点，低于联电最小的节点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BING-JHEN HONG/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited or TSMC (TSM), and United Microelectronics Corporation or UMC (UMC) are both headquartered in Taiwan and both manufacture semiconductors for companies on a contract basis. They both provide high quality IC fabrication services, focusing on logic and various specialty technologies to serve all major sectors of the electronics industry and are defined as pure-play foundries.</p><p><blockquote>台积电股份有限公司或台积电(TSM)和联华电子公司或联电(UMC)的总部均位于台湾，均以合同方式为公司制造半导体。它们都提供高质量的IC制造服务，专注于逻辑和各种专业技术，为电子行业的所有主要部门提供服务，并被定义为纯粹的代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> While they have similarities, the two companies are vastly different with different business models. TSMC started as and has always been a leading-edge company, manufacturing chips at the smallest dimensions. UMC, on the other hand, Taiwan’s first semiconductor company, has chosen the 14nm node as the smallest dimension it will manufacture.</p><p><blockquote>虽然它们有相似之处，但这两家公司在不同的商业模式上有很大不同。台积电最初是一家领先的公司，并一直是一家以最小尺寸制造芯片的公司。另一方面，台湾第一家半导体公司联电选择了14纳米节点作为其制造的最小尺寸。</blockquote></p><p> To illustrate the differences in models, Chart 1 shows revenues for both companies based on technology node. The key difference is the &lt;14nm node, where TSMC generated 41.4% of its revenue compared to 0% for UMC.</p><p><blockquote>为了说明模型的差异，图1显示了两家公司基于技术节点的收入。关键区别在于&lt;14纳米节点，台积电占其收入的41.4%，而联电为0%。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 1 also shows that TSMC held $43 billion in revenues in 2020 versus $6 billion for UMC. Importantly, it shows also shows the financial dominance of TSMC, since UMC holds second place in the global foundry market.</p><p><blockquote>图1还显示，台积电2020年的收入为430亿美元，而联电为60亿美元。重要的是，这也显示了台积电的财务主导地位，因为联电在全球晶圆代工市场排名第二。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3b088585f8a624c6665040756e940f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>Chart 1</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表1</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Much of TSMC’s revenues are on the &lt;14nm node, which increased from 29.4% of revenues in 2019 to 41.4% in 2020. Since UMC’s smallest node is 28nm/14nm, UMC is investing heavily at that node, and its share of revenue increased from 11.3% in 2019 to 13.6% in 2020. In contrast, in 2020 TSMC’s share at the 28nm/14nm node decreased to 30.8% from 37.7% in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>台积电的大部分收入来自&lt;14纳米节点，占收入的比例从2019年的29.4%增加到2020年的41.4%。由于联电最小的节点是28nm/14nm，联电在该节点上投入巨资，营收占比从2019年的11.3%增加到2020年的13.6%。相比之下，2020年台积电在28纳米/14纳米节点的份额从2019年的37.7%下降到30.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expanding Capacity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>扩大产能</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Leading Edge Nodes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前沿节点</b></blockquote></p><p> TSMC generates about 1/3 of its revenues from the 28nm/14nm, and TSMC has 562,000 wafers/month of 8\" capacity, and 745,000 wafers/month of 12\" capacity. The total capacity is 995,000 wafers/month (12-inch equivalent).</p><p><blockquote>台积电约1/3的收入来自28纳米/14纳米，台积电8英寸产能为562,000片/月，12英寸产能为745,000片/月。总产能为995,000片/月（12英寸当量）。</blockquote></p><p> In TSMC’sQ1 2021 earnings call, TSMC’s VP and CFO Wendell Huang noted:</p><p><blockquote>在台积电2021年第一季度盈利看涨期权中，台积电副总裁兼首席财务官Wendell Huang指出：</blockquote></p><p>   “In order to meet the increasing demand for our advanced and specialty technologies in the next several years, we have decided to raise our full year 2021 CapEx to be around USD 30 billion. About 80% of the 2021 capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, including 3-nanometer, 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer. About 10% will be spent for advanced packaging and mask making, and about 10% will be spent for specialty technologies.”  TSMC expects to invest about $100 billion through the next 3 years to increase capacity, to support the manufacturing and R&amp;D of leading-edge and specialty technologies. Its N5 is already in its second year of volume production, contributing around 20% of our wafer revenue in 2021. N4 risk production is targeted for second half this year and volume production in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“为了满足未来几年对我们先进和专业技术不断增长的需求，我们决定将2021年全年资本支出提高至300亿美元左右。2021年资本预算的约80%将分配给先进工艺技术，包括3纳米、5纳米和7纳米。大约10%将用于先进包装和口罩制造，大约10%将用于专业技术。”台积电预计未来3年将投资约1000亿美元来提高产能，以支持前沿和专业技术的制造和研发。其N5已进入量产的第二年，在2021年贡献了我们约20%的晶圆收入。N4风险生产目标为今年下半年，2022年量产。</blockquote></p><p> Among TSMC's facilities to go online in the next three to four years are the company's&nbsp;fab in Arizona&nbsp;as well as its first 2nm-capable fab in Taiwan. The company needs to build and equip its N5-capable fab in Arizona. The facility will cost around $12 billion, will have a capacity of 20,000 wafer starts per month (WSPM), and will come online in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>台积电将在未来三到四年内上线的设施包括该公司位于亚利桑那州的晶圆厂以及位于台湾的第一家2纳米晶圆厂。该公司需要在亚利桑那州建造和装备其支持N5的工厂。该设施将耗资约120亿美元，每月产能为20,000片晶圆启动(WSPM)，并将于2024年上线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>28nm Nodes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>28nm节点</b></blockquote></p><p> The global semiconductor shortage is one of the catalysts prompting foundry manufacturers to build new fabs, particularly at the 28nm node, as many automobile chips are manufactured at that node. While I have devoted four Seeking Alpha articles on trying to pin down what devices are undersupplied and could only find microcontrollers, in this article, I will concede for the sake of argument, that it is not due to hoarding but inept manufacturing supply chains.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体短缺是促使代工厂制造新晶圆厂的催化剂之一，特别是在28nm节点，因为许多汽车芯片是在该节点制造的。虽然我已经发表了四篇Seeking Alpha文章来试图确定哪些设备供应不足并且只能找到微控制器，但在这篇文章中，为了便于讨论，我将承认这不是由于囤积，而是由于无能的制造供应链。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, governments are spending heavily on this industry to expand the total production capacity. These free handouts are a second catalyst for new 28nm node fab construction.</p><p><blockquote>因此，各国政府在该行业投入巨资，以扩大总产能。这些免费讲义是新28纳米节点晶圆厂建设的第二个催化剂。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A strong demand for wafers from the consumer electronics industry has led to increased shipments of UMC’s 28nm wafers, which saw 18% sequential revenue growth in the last reported quarter. In addition, UMC has been focused on production for the automotive industry as semiconductors for electric and self-driving cars are expected to be a major growth driver for the company. However, global automotive semiconductors are only a $40 billion market, compared to a global semiconductor market of $525 billion. That is growing as more semiconductors are used per vehicle each year and because EVs use more semiconductors than internal combustion vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>消费电子行业对晶圆的强劲需求导致联电28纳米晶圆出货量增加，上一季度营收环比增长18%。此外，联电一直专注于汽车行业的生产，因为电动和自动驾驶汽车的半导体预计将成为该公司的主要增长动力。然而，全球汽车半导体仅是一个400亿美元的市场，而全球半导体市场规模为5250亿美元。随着每年每辆车使用更多的半导体，以及电动汽车比内燃机汽车使用更多的半导体，这一数字还在增长。</blockquote></p><p> There is a supply-demand imbalance in mature nodes, as most of the capacity expansion has been in advanced nodes, but companies have not addressed the mature nodes. The technology node is central to the latest auto chip crisis, while at the same time Sony has moved its design of CMOS Integrated Sensors (\"CIS\") for smartphones to 28nm.</p><p><blockquote>成熟节点存在供需失衡，因为大部分产能扩张都在高级节点，但公司没有解决成熟节点。该技术节点是最新汽车芯片危机的核心，同时索尼已将其用于智能手机的CMOS集成传感器（“CIS”）设计转移到28纳米。</blockquote></p><p> On April 22, TSMC announced plans to build a chip fabrication facility in China is at the receiving end of opposition from critics. The plant is set to make semiconductors built on the mature 28nm process node. The Nanjing plant currently has an installed capacity of 20,000 wafers per month. An investment of $2.8 billion and expecting mass-production in 2023, the expansion will double capacity to 40,000 wafers per month.</p><p><blockquote>4月22日，台积电宣布在中国建设芯片制造工厂的计划遭到了批评者的反对。该工厂将生产基于成熟的28纳米工艺节点的半导体。南京工厂目前的装机容量为每月2万片晶圆。投资28亿美元，预计2023年量产，此次扩建将使产能翻一番，达到每月40,000片晶圆。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC has global 562,000 wafers/month of 8\" capacity, and 745,000 wafers/month of 12\" capacity. The total capacity is 995,000 wafers/month (12-inch equivalent). The new fab with a 20,000 wafer per month capacity represents just 2% of the company’s total capacity.</p><p><blockquote>台积电在全球拥有562,000片晶圆/月的8英寸产能和745,000片/月的12英寸产能。总产能为995,000片/月（12英寸当量）。新晶圆厂每月产能为20,000片晶圆，仅占公司总产能的2%。</blockquote></p><p> UMC also expanded its production of 28nm (with a migration to 40nm) process at its Nanke 12-inch Fab 12A P6 plant in Taiwan. It currently has an 87,000 wafer per month capacity. The total investment in the capacity expansion plan is estimated to be approximately NT$100 billion. The P6 expansion is scheduled for production in the second quarter of 2023, and has a capacity of just 10,000 wafers per month.</p><p><blockquote>联电还在台湾南科12英寸晶圆厂12A P6工厂扩大了28纳米（迁移到40纳米）工艺的生产。目前每月产能为87,000片晶圆。扩能计划总投资预估约1000亿元新台币。P6扩建计划于2023年第二季度投产，每月产能仅为10,000片晶圆。</blockquote></p><p> The P6 program is supported by a multi-year's product alignment between UMC and the involved customers that includes a loading protection mechanism that will ensure the P6 capacity is maintained at a healthy loading level.</p><p><blockquote>P6计划得到了UMC和相关客户之间多年产品一致性的支持，其中包括负载保护机制，可确保P6容量保持在健康的负载水平。</blockquote></p><p> UMC has total 12 fabs in production with combined capacity close to 800,000 wafers per month (8-in equivalent).</p><p><blockquote>联电共有12家晶圆厂在生产，总产能接近每月80万片晶圆（相当于8英寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Per Wafer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每片晶圆的价格</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 2 shows the gross profit by node for an IC device. It partially explains the rationale behind TSMC’s business model to move to advanced nodes, while also explaining why the company chose to leave its 28nm node undersupplied until recent external forces prompted it to build its China fab.</p><p><blockquote>图2显示了IC设备按节点划分的毛利润。它部分解释了台积电转向先进节点的商业模式背后的基本原理，同时也解释了为什么该公司选择让其28纳米节点供应不足，直到最近外部力量促使其建立中国晶圆厂。</blockquote></p><p> Gross profits per 300-mm wafer are $2,835 for a 28nm node versus $8,695 for a 3nm node.</p><p><blockquote>28纳米节点每300毫米晶圆的毛利润为2,835美元，而3纳米节点为8,695美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e241c85dd84eb71f54c3b11812e6599\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>Chart 2</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表2</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows capex spend by node for ICs. Capex spend (building + equipment) at 28nm is $100,000 per wafer, which more than triples to $320,000 at 3nm.</p><p><blockquote>图3显示了IC按节点划分的资本支出。28纳米的资本支出（建筑+设备）为每块晶圆100,000美元，而3纳米的资本支出增加了两倍多，达到320,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f8f60218f2b914e5847e2eef8aa39c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>Chart 3</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表3</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Customer Base</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户基础</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 4 shows that Apple (AAPL) was the largest customer of TSMC in 2020, representing 21% of revenues. Keep in mind that in addition to TSMC’s processors going into iPhones, TSMC also fabricates the M1, which powers the new MacBook Air, 13-inch MacBook Pro, and Mac mini and is Apple's first custom-designed Arm-based chip for Mac.</p><p><blockquote>图表4显示，苹果（AAPL）是2020年台积电最大的客户，占收入的21%。请记住，除了台积电的处理器用于iPhone之外，台积电还制造M1，为新款MacBook Air、13英寸MacBook Pro和Mac mini提供动力，并且是苹果首款为Mac定制设计的基于Arm的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/354a97772e16c2a05dbccc89556de9eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"><span>Chart 4</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表4</span></p></blockquote></p><p> TSMC has upgraded its manufacturing capabilities countless times to keep Apple’s latest chips at the bleeding edge of processor technologies, since its first chip produced for Apple was installed in the Apple iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus, which were introduced on September 9, 2014.</p><p><blockquote>自2014年9月9日推出的苹果iPhone 6和iPhone 6 Plus安装以来，台积电已无数次升级其制造能力，以使苹果的最新芯片保持在处理器技术的前沿。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows that the number of transistors increased from 2 billion for the iPhone 6 to 11.8 billion for the current iPhone 12.</p><p><blockquote>图表5显示，晶体管数量从iPhone 6的20亿个增加到现在的iPhone 12的118亿个。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/108ef270fe60691ec5bc8c7f0a061d9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>Chart 5</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表5</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, investors must consider that:</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者必须考虑：</blockquote></p><p> Any positive developments from Apple will impact TSMC positively, and positive technological developments from TSMC will impact Apple positively. For example, as long as TSMC is the major manufacturer of Apple chips, growth in Apple or new technologies developed by Apple requiring chips (such as Auto or ADAS), then TSMC will gain.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的任何积极发展都将对台积电产生积极影响，台积电的积极技术发展也将对苹果产生积极影响。例如，只要台积电是苹果芯片的主要制造商，苹果的增长或苹果开发的需要芯片的新技术（如汽车或ADAS），那么台积电就会受益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Secondly, because of capacity limitations and technology node demands, any expansion in capacity from TSMC will be beneficial to Apple as it moves to smaller nodes while consuming about 25% of TSMC’s chip output on a revenue basis.</p><p><blockquote>其次，由于产能限制和技术节点需求，台积电的任何产能扩张都将有利于苹果，因为它转向更小的节点，同时消耗台积电约25%的芯片产量。</blockquote></p><p> UMC is less transparent and doesn’t provide a breakdown by customer. UMC’s primary customers include premier integrated device manufacturers, such as Texas Instruments(NASDAQ:TXN)and Intel Mobile(NASDAQ:INTC), plus leading fabless design companies, such as MediaTek(OTCPK:MDTKF), Realtek, Qualcomm(NASDAQ:QCOM)and Novatek.</p><p><blockquote>UMC透明度较低，不提供客户细分。联电的主要客户包括顶级集成设备制造商，如德州仪器（纳斯达克：TXN）和英特尔移动（纳斯达克：INTC），以及领先的无晶圆厂设计公司，如联发科（OTCPK：MDTKF）、瑞昱、高通（纳斯达克：QCOM）和联咏。</blockquote></p><p> In August 2018, UMC announced it would pause research for advancing the productional technology of chips under 10nm nodes. As shown in the figure above, since 2018, the corresponding proportion of the company's advanced processes has been reduced to zero, but for mature nodes such as 65nm and 28nm, the proportion has been increased.</p><p><blockquote>2018年8月，联电宣布将暂停推进10nm节点以下芯片生产技术的研究。如上图所示，自2018年起，公司先进制程的相应占比已降至零，但对于65nm、28nm等成熟节点，占比有所提升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaways</b>: Is TSM Or UMC Stock A Better Buy?</p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b>：TSM或UMC股票更值得购买？</blockquote></p><p> Both companies compete in the same industry, but their business models are a differentiating metric. TSMC generates most of its revenue on nodes smaller than UMC’s (Chart 1), and most of its planned capex will focus new fabs making ICs at increasing smaller nodes.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司在同一行业竞争，但他们的商业模式是一个差异化的指标。台积电的大部分收入来自比联电更小的节点（图1），其大部分计划资本支出将集中在制造集成电路的新晶圆厂上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TSMC Positives</b></p><p><blockquote><b>台积电利好</b></blockquote></p><p> TSMC’s share of the pure-play foundry market was 57% share in 2020, up from 55% in 2019. UMC’s share was constant at slightly less than 8%.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，台积电在纯晶圆代工市场的份额为57%，高于2019年的55%。联电的份额稳定在略低于8%。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC benefits from the smaller nodes. Although capex increases with decreasing nodes (Chart 3), so too does gross profit (Chart 2). Thus, TSM has higher revenues than UMC: $48.2B vs $6.283B.</p><p><blockquote>台积电受益于较小的节点。尽管资本支出随着节点的减少而增加（图3），但毛利润也会增加（图2）。因此，TSM的收入高于UMC：$48.2 B vs$62.83亿B。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>TSMC also has higher annual earnings (EBITDA): $33B vs. UMC $2.349B.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>台积电的年收益(EBITDA)也更高：$33B，而联电为$23.49 B。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>TSMC ($613B) has a higher market cap than UMC ($23.4B).</p><p><blockquote><li>台积电（$613B）的市值高于联电（$234亿）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>TSMC has more cash on hand: $23.3B vs. UMC ($3.76B).</p><p><blockquote><li>台积电手头现金更多：$23.3 B vs UMC（$37.6 B）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>TSMC has a higher EPS (3.99) than UMC (0.59).</p><p><blockquote><li>台积电的每股收益（3.99）高于联电（0.59）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Seeking Alpha’s quant ratings are derived by measuring a stock's financial metrics against other stocks in the sector on the basis of value, growth, profitability, momentum and analysts’ earnings revisions. In Table 1, both stocks have high rankings. TSMC has a quant rating of 4.63 and UMC has a quant rating of 4.54.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha的量化评级是通过根据价值、增长、盈利能力、动量和分析师的盈利修正来衡量股票与该行业其他股票的财务指标而得出的。在表1中，两只股票的排名都很高。台积电的量化评级为4.63，联电的量化评级为4.54。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55db72bd38ddd1d46c2ec7a6ccf6307f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"117\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Gross margin for TSMC and UMC is shown in Table 2. A positive for TSMC, gross margin is significantly ahead of UMC and the average of all foundries. The Street expects 3Q21 gross margin will improve to 52.9%, given a higher revenue scale, tight foundry supply and improved efficiency of 5nm production.</p><p><blockquote>台积电和联电的毛利率如表2所示。对台积电来说，这是一个利好，毛利率大幅领先于联电和所有代工厂的平均水平。华尔街预计，鉴于更高的收入规模、晶圆代工供应紧张以及5nm生产效率的提高，2021年第三季度的毛利率将改善至52.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ab6dce4d14398755080d9db48522121\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>UMC Positives</b></p><p><blockquote><b>联电正面</b></blockquote></p><p> The comparison of other financial metrics, UMC has stronger financials:</p><p><blockquote>与其他财务指标相比，联电的财务状况更强劲：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>UMC has a lower P/E ratio than TSM: 21.8 vs 28.9</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>联电的市盈率低于台积电：21.8 vs 28.9</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>UMC has less debt than TSM: $2.47B vs $15.4B.</p><p><blockquote><li>UMC的债务低于TSM：$2.47 B vs$15.4 B。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>UMC YTD gains are higher at: 10.558 vs. TSM (8.922).</p><p><blockquote><li>UMC年初至今涨幅较高：10.558 vs.TSM(8.922)。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Table 3 shows stock performance in percent growth for TSM and UMC. In the past year, UMC stock has outperformed TSMC, and did so in the 3-year and 5-year period. But in a 10-year period, TSMC is the better choice.</p><p><blockquote>表3显示了TSM和UMC的股票增长百分比。过去一年，联电股票的表现优于台积电，在3年和5年期间也是如此。但在10年的时间里，台积电是更好的选择。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7533369f256853d498f5492752417e05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"172\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> TSMC is the clear winner over UMC going forward. The company chose its strategy to build chips at the &lt;7nm node. The fact that it is building a 28nm fab in China, the “sweet spot” for UMC, coupled with a new 28nm SMIC (OTCQX:SMICY) fab, will mean lost market share at this node for UMC.</p><p><blockquote>台积电显然是未来联电的赢家。该公司选择了在&lt;7纳米节点构建芯片的策略。事实上，它正在中国建造一座28纳米晶圆厂，这是联电的“最佳地点”，再加上一座新的28纳米中芯国际（OTCQX：SMICY）晶圆厂，这将意味着联电在这个节点失去市场份额。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Taiwan Semiconductor Vs. United Microelectronics Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>台积电与联合微电子股票：哪个更值得购买？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTaiwan Semiconductor Vs. United Microelectronics Stock: Which Is The Better Buy?<blockquote>台积电与联合微电子股票：哪个更值得购买？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 08:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>TSMC is the world’s largest foundry for making ICs for fabless semiconductor companies, manufacturing 11,617 different products using 281 distinct technologies for 510 different customers.</li>  <li>TSMC and fellow Taiwan foundry United Microelectronics Corporation are expected to benefit from a chip-supply crisis that is adversely impacting automakers.</li>  <li>TSMC benefits from a gross margin nearly twice that of UMC.</li>  <li>40% of revenues are from nodes &lt;14nm, below the smallest node of UMC.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d80e662ebb3b78dd0445ecc891cf8986\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"513\"><span>BING-JHEN HONG/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>台积电是全球最大的为无晶圆厂半导体公司制造IC的代工厂，使用281种不同的技术为510个不同的客户制造11,617种不同的产品。</li><li>台积电和台湾代工厂联合微电子公司预计将从对汽车制造商产生不利影响的芯片供应危机中受益。</li><li>台积电受益于近两倍于联电的毛利率。</li><li>40%的收入来自&lt;14nm的节点，低于联电最小的节点。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BING-JHEN HONG/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited or TSMC (TSM), and United Microelectronics Corporation or UMC (UMC) are both headquartered in Taiwan and both manufacture semiconductors for companies on a contract basis. They both provide high quality IC fabrication services, focusing on logic and various specialty technologies to serve all major sectors of the electronics industry and are defined as pure-play foundries.</p><p><blockquote>台积电股份有限公司或台积电(TSM)和联华电子公司或联电(UMC)的总部均位于台湾，均以合同方式为公司制造半导体。它们都提供高质量的IC制造服务，专注于逻辑和各种专业技术，为电子行业的所有主要部门提供服务，并被定义为纯粹的代工厂。</blockquote></p><p> While they have similarities, the two companies are vastly different with different business models. TSMC started as and has always been a leading-edge company, manufacturing chips at the smallest dimensions. UMC, on the other hand, Taiwan’s first semiconductor company, has chosen the 14nm node as the smallest dimension it will manufacture.</p><p><blockquote>虽然它们有相似之处，但这两家公司在不同的商业模式上有很大不同。台积电最初是一家领先的公司，并一直是一家以最小尺寸制造芯片的公司。另一方面，台湾第一家半导体公司联电选择了14纳米节点作为其制造的最小尺寸。</blockquote></p><p> To illustrate the differences in models, Chart 1 shows revenues for both companies based on technology node. The key difference is the &lt;14nm node, where TSMC generated 41.4% of its revenue compared to 0% for UMC.</p><p><blockquote>为了说明模型的差异，图1显示了两家公司基于技术节点的收入。关键区别在于&lt;14纳米节点，台积电占其收入的41.4%，而联电为0%。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 1 also shows that TSMC held $43 billion in revenues in 2020 versus $6 billion for UMC. Importantly, it shows also shows the financial dominance of TSMC, since UMC holds second place in the global foundry market.</p><p><blockquote>图1还显示，台积电2020年的收入为430亿美元，而联电为60亿美元。重要的是，这也显示了台积电的财务主导地位，因为联电在全球晶圆代工市场排名第二。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3b088585f8a624c6665040756e940f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>Chart 1</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表1</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Much of TSMC’s revenues are on the &lt;14nm node, which increased from 29.4% of revenues in 2019 to 41.4% in 2020. Since UMC’s smallest node is 28nm/14nm, UMC is investing heavily at that node, and its share of revenue increased from 11.3% in 2019 to 13.6% in 2020. In contrast, in 2020 TSMC’s share at the 28nm/14nm node decreased to 30.8% from 37.7% in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>台积电的大部分收入来自&lt;14纳米节点，占收入的比例从2019年的29.4%增加到2020年的41.4%。由于联电最小的节点是28nm/14nm，联电在该节点上投入巨资，营收占比从2019年的11.3%增加到2020年的13.6%。相比之下，2020年台积电在28纳米/14纳米节点的份额从2019年的37.7%下降到30.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expanding Capacity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>扩大产能</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Leading Edge Nodes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>前沿节点</b></blockquote></p><p> TSMC generates about 1/3 of its revenues from the 28nm/14nm, and TSMC has 562,000 wafers/month of 8\" capacity, and 745,000 wafers/month of 12\" capacity. The total capacity is 995,000 wafers/month (12-inch equivalent).</p><p><blockquote>台积电约1/3的收入来自28纳米/14纳米，台积电8英寸产能为562,000片/月，12英寸产能为745,000片/月。总产能为995,000片/月（12英寸当量）。</blockquote></p><p> In TSMC’sQ1 2021 earnings call, TSMC’s VP and CFO Wendell Huang noted:</p><p><blockquote>在台积电2021年第一季度盈利看涨期权中，台积电副总裁兼首席财务官Wendell Huang指出：</blockquote></p><p>   “In order to meet the increasing demand for our advanced and specialty technologies in the next several years, we have decided to raise our full year 2021 CapEx to be around USD 30 billion. About 80% of the 2021 capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, including 3-nanometer, 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer. About 10% will be spent for advanced packaging and mask making, and about 10% will be spent for specialty technologies.”  TSMC expects to invest about $100 billion through the next 3 years to increase capacity, to support the manufacturing and R&amp;D of leading-edge and specialty technologies. Its N5 is already in its second year of volume production, contributing around 20% of our wafer revenue in 2021. N4 risk production is targeted for second half this year and volume production in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>“为了满足未来几年对我们先进和专业技术不断增长的需求，我们决定将2021年全年资本支出提高至300亿美元左右。2021年资本预算的约80%将分配给先进工艺技术，包括3纳米、5纳米和7纳米。大约10%将用于先进包装和口罩制造，大约10%将用于专业技术。”台积电预计未来3年将投资约1000亿美元来提高产能，以支持前沿和专业技术的制造和研发。其N5已进入量产的第二年，在2021年贡献了我们约20%的晶圆收入。N4风险生产目标为今年下半年，2022年量产。</blockquote></p><p> Among TSMC's facilities to go online in the next three to four years are the company's&nbsp;fab in Arizona&nbsp;as well as its first 2nm-capable fab in Taiwan. The company needs to build and equip its N5-capable fab in Arizona. The facility will cost around $12 billion, will have a capacity of 20,000 wafer starts per month (WSPM), and will come online in 2024.</p><p><blockquote>台积电将在未来三到四年内上线的设施包括该公司位于亚利桑那州的晶圆厂以及位于台湾的第一家2纳米晶圆厂。该公司需要在亚利桑那州建造和装备其支持N5的工厂。该设施将耗资约120亿美元，每月产能为20,000片晶圆启动(WSPM)，并将于2024年上线。</blockquote></p><p> <b>28nm Nodes</b></p><p><blockquote><b>28nm节点</b></blockquote></p><p> The global semiconductor shortage is one of the catalysts prompting foundry manufacturers to build new fabs, particularly at the 28nm node, as many automobile chips are manufactured at that node. While I have devoted four Seeking Alpha articles on trying to pin down what devices are undersupplied and could only find microcontrollers, in this article, I will concede for the sake of argument, that it is not due to hoarding but inept manufacturing supply chains.</p><p><blockquote>全球半导体短缺是促使代工厂制造新晶圆厂的催化剂之一，特别是在28nm节点，因为许多汽车芯片是在该节点制造的。虽然我已经发表了四篇Seeking Alpha文章来试图确定哪些设备供应不足并且只能找到微控制器，但在这篇文章中，为了便于讨论，我将承认这不是由于囤积，而是由于无能的制造供应链。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, governments are spending heavily on this industry to expand the total production capacity. These free handouts are a second catalyst for new 28nm node fab construction.</p><p><blockquote>因此，各国政府在该行业投入巨资，以扩大总产能。这些免费讲义是新28纳米节点晶圆厂建设的第二个催化剂。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A strong demand for wafers from the consumer electronics industry has led to increased shipments of UMC’s 28nm wafers, which saw 18% sequential revenue growth in the last reported quarter. In addition, UMC has been focused on production for the automotive industry as semiconductors for electric and self-driving cars are expected to be a major growth driver for the company. However, global automotive semiconductors are only a $40 billion market, compared to a global semiconductor market of $525 billion. That is growing as more semiconductors are used per vehicle each year and because EVs use more semiconductors than internal combustion vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>消费电子行业对晶圆的强劲需求导致联电28纳米晶圆出货量增加，上一季度营收环比增长18%。此外，联电一直专注于汽车行业的生产，因为电动和自动驾驶汽车的半导体预计将成为该公司的主要增长动力。然而，全球汽车半导体仅是一个400亿美元的市场，而全球半导体市场规模为5250亿美元。随着每年每辆车使用更多的半导体，以及电动汽车比内燃机汽车使用更多的半导体，这一数字还在增长。</blockquote></p><p> There is a supply-demand imbalance in mature nodes, as most of the capacity expansion has been in advanced nodes, but companies have not addressed the mature nodes. The technology node is central to the latest auto chip crisis, while at the same time Sony has moved its design of CMOS Integrated Sensors (\"CIS\") for smartphones to 28nm.</p><p><blockquote>成熟节点存在供需失衡，因为大部分产能扩张都在高级节点，但公司没有解决成熟节点。该技术节点是最新汽车芯片危机的核心，同时索尼已将其用于智能手机的CMOS集成传感器（“CIS”）设计转移到28纳米。</blockquote></p><p> On April 22, TSMC announced plans to build a chip fabrication facility in China is at the receiving end of opposition from critics. The plant is set to make semiconductors built on the mature 28nm process node. The Nanjing plant currently has an installed capacity of 20,000 wafers per month. An investment of $2.8 billion and expecting mass-production in 2023, the expansion will double capacity to 40,000 wafers per month.</p><p><blockquote>4月22日，台积电宣布在中国建设芯片制造工厂的计划遭到了批评者的反对。该工厂将生产基于成熟的28纳米工艺节点的半导体。南京工厂目前的装机容量为每月2万片晶圆。投资28亿美元，预计2023年量产，此次扩建将使产能翻一番，达到每月40,000片晶圆。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC has global 562,000 wafers/month of 8\" capacity, and 745,000 wafers/month of 12\" capacity. The total capacity is 995,000 wafers/month (12-inch equivalent). The new fab with a 20,000 wafer per month capacity represents just 2% of the company’s total capacity.</p><p><blockquote>台积电在全球拥有562,000片晶圆/月的8英寸产能和745,000片/月的12英寸产能。总产能为995,000片/月（12英寸当量）。新晶圆厂每月产能为20,000片晶圆，仅占公司总产能的2%。</blockquote></p><p> UMC also expanded its production of 28nm (with a migration to 40nm) process at its Nanke 12-inch Fab 12A P6 plant in Taiwan. It currently has an 87,000 wafer per month capacity. The total investment in the capacity expansion plan is estimated to be approximately NT$100 billion. The P6 expansion is scheduled for production in the second quarter of 2023, and has a capacity of just 10,000 wafers per month.</p><p><blockquote>联电还在台湾南科12英寸晶圆厂12A P6工厂扩大了28纳米（迁移到40纳米）工艺的生产。目前每月产能为87,000片晶圆。扩能计划总投资预估约1000亿元新台币。P6扩建计划于2023年第二季度投产，每月产能仅为10,000片晶圆。</blockquote></p><p> The P6 program is supported by a multi-year's product alignment between UMC and the involved customers that includes a loading protection mechanism that will ensure the P6 capacity is maintained at a healthy loading level.</p><p><blockquote>P6计划得到了UMC和相关客户之间多年产品一致性的支持，其中包括负载保护机制，可确保P6容量保持在健康的负载水平。</blockquote></p><p> UMC has total 12 fabs in production with combined capacity close to 800,000 wafers per month (8-in equivalent).</p><p><blockquote>联电共有12家晶圆厂在生产，总产能接近每月80万片晶圆（相当于8英寸）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Per Wafer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每片晶圆的价格</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 2 shows the gross profit by node for an IC device. It partially explains the rationale behind TSMC’s business model to move to advanced nodes, while also explaining why the company chose to leave its 28nm node undersupplied until recent external forces prompted it to build its China fab.</p><p><blockquote>图2显示了IC设备按节点划分的毛利润。它部分解释了台积电转向先进节点的商业模式背后的基本原理，同时也解释了为什么该公司选择让其28纳米节点供应不足，直到最近外部力量促使其建立中国晶圆厂。</blockquote></p><p> Gross profits per 300-mm wafer are $2,835 for a 28nm node versus $8,695 for a 3nm node.</p><p><blockquote>28纳米节点每300毫米晶圆的毛利润为2,835美元，而3纳米节点为8,695美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e241c85dd84eb71f54c3b11812e6599\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>Chart 2</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表2</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows capex spend by node for ICs. Capex spend (building + equipment) at 28nm is $100,000 per wafer, which more than triples to $320,000 at 3nm.</p><p><blockquote>图3显示了IC按节点划分的资本支出。28纳米的资本支出（建筑+设备）为每块晶圆100,000美元，而3纳米的资本支出增加了两倍多，达到320,000美元。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f8f60218f2b914e5847e2eef8aa39c3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>Chart 3</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表3</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Customer Base</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户基础</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 4 shows that Apple (AAPL) was the largest customer of TSMC in 2020, representing 21% of revenues. Keep in mind that in addition to TSMC’s processors going into iPhones, TSMC also fabricates the M1, which powers the new MacBook Air, 13-inch MacBook Pro, and Mac mini and is Apple's first custom-designed Arm-based chip for Mac.</p><p><blockquote>图表4显示，苹果（AAPL）是2020年台积电最大的客户，占收入的21%。请记住，除了台积电的处理器用于iPhone之外，台积电还制造M1，为新款MacBook Air、13英寸MacBook Pro和Mac mini提供动力，并且是苹果首款为Mac定制设计的基于Arm的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/354a97772e16c2a05dbccc89556de9eb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"><span>Chart 4</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表4</span></p></blockquote></p><p> TSMC has upgraded its manufacturing capabilities countless times to keep Apple’s latest chips at the bleeding edge of processor technologies, since its first chip produced for Apple was installed in the Apple iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus, which were introduced on September 9, 2014.</p><p><blockquote>自2014年9月9日推出的苹果iPhone 6和iPhone 6 Plus安装以来，台积电已无数次升级其制造能力，以使苹果的最新芯片保持在处理器技术的前沿。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows that the number of transistors increased from 2 billion for the iPhone 6 to 11.8 billion for the current iPhone 12.</p><p><blockquote>图表5显示，晶体管数量从iPhone 6的20亿个增加到现在的iPhone 12的118亿个。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/108ef270fe60691ec5bc8c7f0a061d9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"462\"><span>Chart 5</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表5</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, investors must consider that:</p><p><blockquote>因此，投资者必须考虑：</blockquote></p><p> Any positive developments from Apple will impact TSMC positively, and positive technological developments from TSMC will impact Apple positively. For example, as long as TSMC is the major manufacturer of Apple chips, growth in Apple or new technologies developed by Apple requiring chips (such as Auto or ADAS), then TSMC will gain.</p><p><blockquote>苹果的任何积极发展都将对台积电产生积极影响，台积电的积极技术发展也将对苹果产生积极影响。例如，只要台积电是苹果芯片的主要制造商，苹果的增长或苹果开发的需要芯片的新技术（如汽车或ADAS），那么台积电就会受益。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Secondly, because of capacity limitations and technology node demands, any expansion in capacity from TSMC will be beneficial to Apple as it moves to smaller nodes while consuming about 25% of TSMC’s chip output on a revenue basis.</p><p><blockquote>其次，由于产能限制和技术节点需求，台积电的任何产能扩张都将有利于苹果，因为它转向更小的节点，同时消耗台积电约25%的芯片产量。</blockquote></p><p> UMC is less transparent and doesn’t provide a breakdown by customer. UMC’s primary customers include premier integrated device manufacturers, such as Texas Instruments(NASDAQ:TXN)and Intel Mobile(NASDAQ:INTC), plus leading fabless design companies, such as MediaTek(OTCPK:MDTKF), Realtek, Qualcomm(NASDAQ:QCOM)and Novatek.</p><p><blockquote>UMC透明度较低，不提供客户细分。联电的主要客户包括顶级集成设备制造商，如德州仪器（纳斯达克：TXN）和英特尔移动（纳斯达克：INTC），以及领先的无晶圆厂设计公司，如联发科（OTCPK：MDTKF）、瑞昱、高通（纳斯达克：QCOM）和联咏。</blockquote></p><p> In August 2018, UMC announced it would pause research for advancing the productional technology of chips under 10nm nodes. As shown in the figure above, since 2018, the corresponding proportion of the company's advanced processes has been reduced to zero, but for mature nodes such as 65nm and 28nm, the proportion has been increased.</p><p><blockquote>2018年8月，联电宣布将暂停推进10nm节点以下芯片生产技术的研究。如上图所示，自2018年起，公司先进制程的相应占比已降至零，但对于65nm、28nm等成熟节点，占比有所提升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaways</b>: Is TSM Or UMC Stock A Better Buy?</p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b>：TSM或UMC股票更值得购买？</blockquote></p><p> Both companies compete in the same industry, but their business models are a differentiating metric. TSMC generates most of its revenue on nodes smaller than UMC’s (Chart 1), and most of its planned capex will focus new fabs making ICs at increasing smaller nodes.</p><p><blockquote>两家公司在同一行业竞争，但他们的商业模式是一个差异化的指标。台积电的大部分收入来自比联电更小的节点（图1），其大部分计划资本支出将集中在制造集成电路的新晶圆厂上。</blockquote></p><p> <b>TSMC Positives</b></p><p><blockquote><b>台积电利好</b></blockquote></p><p> TSMC’s share of the pure-play foundry market was 57% share in 2020, up from 55% in 2019. UMC’s share was constant at slightly less than 8%.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，台积电在纯晶圆代工市场的份额为57%，高于2019年的55%。联电的份额稳定在略低于8%。</blockquote></p><p> TSMC benefits from the smaller nodes. Although capex increases with decreasing nodes (Chart 3), so too does gross profit (Chart 2). Thus, TSM has higher revenues than UMC: $48.2B vs $6.283B.</p><p><blockquote>台积电受益于较小的节点。尽管资本支出随着节点的减少而增加（图3），但毛利润也会增加（图2）。因此，TSM的收入高于UMC：$48.2 B vs$62.83亿B。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>TSMC also has higher annual earnings (EBITDA): $33B vs. UMC $2.349B.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>台积电的年收益(EBITDA)也更高：$33B，而联电为$23.49 B。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>TSMC ($613B) has a higher market cap than UMC ($23.4B).</p><p><blockquote><li>台积电（$613B）的市值高于联电（$234亿）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>TSMC has more cash on hand: $23.3B vs. UMC ($3.76B).</p><p><blockquote><li>台积电手头现金更多：$23.3 B vs UMC（$37.6 B）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>TSMC has a higher EPS (3.99) than UMC (0.59).</p><p><blockquote><li>台积电的每股收益（3.99）高于联电（0.59）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Seeking Alpha’s quant ratings are derived by measuring a stock's financial metrics against other stocks in the sector on the basis of value, growth, profitability, momentum and analysts’ earnings revisions. In Table 1, both stocks have high rankings. TSMC has a quant rating of 4.63 and UMC has a quant rating of 4.54.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha的量化评级是通过根据价值、增长、盈利能力、动量和分析师的盈利修正来衡量股票与该行业其他股票的财务指标而得出的。在表1中，两只股票的排名都很高。台积电的量化评级为4.63，联电的量化评级为4.54。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55db72bd38ddd1d46c2ec7a6ccf6307f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"117\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Gross margin for TSMC and UMC is shown in Table 2. A positive for TSMC, gross margin is significantly ahead of UMC and the average of all foundries. The Street expects 3Q21 gross margin will improve to 52.9%, given a higher revenue scale, tight foundry supply and improved efficiency of 5nm production.</p><p><blockquote>台积电和联电的毛利率如表2所示。对台积电来说，这是一个利好，毛利率大幅领先于联电和所有代工厂的平均水平。华尔街预计，鉴于更高的收入规模、晶圆代工供应紧张以及5nm生产效率的提高，2021年第三季度的毛利率将改善至52.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ab6dce4d14398755080d9db48522121\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>UMC Positives</b></p><p><blockquote><b>联电正面</b></blockquote></p><p> The comparison of other financial metrics, UMC has stronger financials:</p><p><blockquote>与其他财务指标相比，联电的财务状况更强劲：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>UMC has a lower P/E ratio than TSM: 21.8 vs 28.9</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>联电的市盈率低于台积电：21.8 vs 28.9</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>UMC has less debt than TSM: $2.47B vs $15.4B.</p><p><blockquote><li>UMC的债务低于TSM：$2.47 B vs$15.4 B。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>UMC YTD gains are higher at: 10.558 vs. TSM (8.922).</p><p><blockquote><li>UMC年初至今涨幅较高：10.558 vs.TSM(8.922)。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Table 3 shows stock performance in percent growth for TSM and UMC. In the past year, UMC stock has outperformed TSMC, and did so in the 3-year and 5-year period. But in a 10-year period, TSMC is the better choice.</p><p><blockquote>表3显示了TSM和UMC的股票增长百分比。过去一年，联电股票的表现优于台积电，在3年和5年期间也是如此。但在10年的时间里，台积电是更好的选择。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7533369f256853d498f5492752417e05\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"172\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> TSMC is the clear winner over UMC going forward. The company chose its strategy to build chips at the &lt;7nm node. The fact that it is building a 28nm fab in China, the “sweet spot” for UMC, coupled with a new 28nm SMIC (OTCQX:SMICY) fab, will mean lost market share at this node for UMC.</p><p><blockquote>台积电显然是未来联电的赢家。该公司选择了在&lt;7纳米节点构建芯片的策略。事实上，它正在中国建造一座28纳米晶圆厂，这是联电的“最佳地点”，再加上一座新的28纳米中芯国际（OTCQX：SMICY）晶圆厂，这将意味着联电在这个节点失去市场份额。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438509-taiwan-semiconductor-vs-united-microelectronics-stock\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UMC":"联电","TSM":"台积电"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438509-taiwan-semiconductor-vs-united-microelectronics-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145284684","content_text":"Summary\n\nTSMC is the world’s largest foundry for making ICs for fabless semiconductor companies, manufacturing 11,617 different products using 281 distinct technologies for 510 different customers.\nTSMC and fellow Taiwan foundry United Microelectronics Corporation are expected to benefit from a chip-supply crisis that is adversely impacting automakers.\nTSMC benefits from a gross margin nearly twice that of UMC.\n40% of revenues are from nodes <14nm, below the smallest node of UMC.\n\nBING-JHEN HONG/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nTaiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited or TSMC (TSM), and United Microelectronics Corporation or UMC (UMC) are both headquartered in Taiwan and both manufacture semiconductors for companies on a contract basis. They both provide high quality IC fabrication services, focusing on logic and various specialty technologies to serve all major sectors of the electronics industry and are defined as pure-play foundries.\nWhile they have similarities, the two companies are vastly different with different business models. TSMC started as and has always been a leading-edge company, manufacturing chips at the smallest dimensions. UMC, on the other hand, Taiwan’s first semiconductor company, has chosen the 14nm node as the smallest dimension it will manufacture.\nTo illustrate the differences in models, Chart 1 shows revenues for both companies based on technology node. The key difference is the <14nm node, where TSMC generated 41.4% of its revenue compared to 0% for UMC.\nChart 1 also shows that TSMC held $43 billion in revenues in 2020 versus $6 billion for UMC. Importantly, it shows also shows the financial dominance of TSMC, since UMC holds second place in the global foundry market.\nChart 1\nMuch of TSMC’s revenues are on the <14nm node, which increased from 29.4% of revenues in 2019 to 41.4% in 2020. Since UMC’s smallest node is 28nm/14nm, UMC is investing heavily at that node, and its share of revenue increased from 11.3% in 2019 to 13.6% in 2020. In contrast, in 2020 TSMC’s share at the 28nm/14nm node decreased to 30.8% from 37.7% in 2019.\nExpanding Capacity\nLeading Edge Nodes\nTSMC generates about 1/3 of its revenues from the 28nm/14nm, and TSMC has 562,000 wafers/month of 8\" capacity, and 745,000 wafers/month of 12\" capacity. The total capacity is 995,000 wafers/month (12-inch equivalent).\nIn TSMC’sQ1 2021 earnings call, TSMC’s VP and CFO Wendell Huang noted:\n\n “In order to meet the increasing demand for our advanced and specialty technologies in the next several years, we have decided to raise our full year 2021 CapEx to be around USD 30 billion. About 80% of the 2021 capital budget will be allocated for advanced process technologies, including 3-nanometer, 5-nanometer and 7-nanometer. About 10% will be spent for advanced packaging and mask making, and about 10% will be spent for specialty technologies.”\n\nTSMC expects to invest about $100 billion through the next 3 years to increase capacity, to support the manufacturing and R&D of leading-edge and specialty technologies. Its N5 is already in its second year of volume production, contributing around 20% of our wafer revenue in 2021. N4 risk production is targeted for second half this year and volume production in 2022.\nAmong TSMC's facilities to go online in the next three to four years are the company's fab in Arizona as well as its first 2nm-capable fab in Taiwan. The company needs to build and equip its N5-capable fab in Arizona. The facility will cost around $12 billion, will have a capacity of 20,000 wafer starts per month (WSPM), and will come online in 2024.\n28nm Nodes\nThe global semiconductor shortage is one of the catalysts prompting foundry manufacturers to build new fabs, particularly at the 28nm node, as many automobile chips are manufactured at that node. While I have devoted four Seeking Alpha articles on trying to pin down what devices are undersupplied and could only find microcontrollers, in this article, I will concede for the sake of argument, that it is not due to hoarding but inept manufacturing supply chains.\nAs a result, governments are spending heavily on this industry to expand the total production capacity. These free handouts are a second catalyst for new 28nm node fab construction.\nA strong demand for wafers from the consumer electronics industry has led to increased shipments of UMC’s 28nm wafers, which saw 18% sequential revenue growth in the last reported quarter. In addition, UMC has been focused on production for the automotive industry as semiconductors for electric and self-driving cars are expected to be a major growth driver for the company. However, global automotive semiconductors are only a $40 billion market, compared to a global semiconductor market of $525 billion. That is growing as more semiconductors are used per vehicle each year and because EVs use more semiconductors than internal combustion vehicles.\nThere is a supply-demand imbalance in mature nodes, as most of the capacity expansion has been in advanced nodes, but companies have not addressed the mature nodes. The technology node is central to the latest auto chip crisis, while at the same time Sony has moved its design of CMOS Integrated Sensors (\"CIS\") for smartphones to 28nm.\nOn April 22, TSMC announced plans to build a chip fabrication facility in China is at the receiving end of opposition from critics. The plant is set to make semiconductors built on the mature 28nm process node. The Nanjing plant currently has an installed capacity of 20,000 wafers per month. An investment of $2.8 billion and expecting mass-production in 2023, the expansion will double capacity to 40,000 wafers per month.\nTSMC has global 562,000 wafers/month of 8\" capacity, and 745,000 wafers/month of 12\" capacity. The total capacity is 995,000 wafers/month (12-inch equivalent). The new fab with a 20,000 wafer per month capacity represents just 2% of the company’s total capacity.\nUMC also expanded its production of 28nm (with a migration to 40nm) process at its Nanke 12-inch Fab 12A P6 plant in Taiwan. It currently has an 87,000 wafer per month capacity. The total investment in the capacity expansion plan is estimated to be approximately NT$100 billion. The P6 expansion is scheduled for production in the second quarter of 2023, and has a capacity of just 10,000 wafers per month.\nThe P6 program is supported by a multi-year's product alignment between UMC and the involved customers that includes a loading protection mechanism that will ensure the P6 capacity is maintained at a healthy loading level.\nUMC has total 12 fabs in production with combined capacity close to 800,000 wafers per month (8-in equivalent).\nPrice Per Wafer\nChart 2 shows the gross profit by node for an IC device. It partially explains the rationale behind TSMC’s business model to move to advanced nodes, while also explaining why the company chose to leave its 28nm node undersupplied until recent external forces prompted it to build its China fab.\nGross profits per 300-mm wafer are $2,835 for a 28nm node versus $8,695 for a 3nm node.\nChart 2\nChart 3 shows capex spend by node for ICs. Capex spend (building + equipment) at 28nm is $100,000 per wafer, which more than triples to $320,000 at 3nm.\nChart 3\nCustomer Base\nChart 4 shows that Apple (AAPL) was the largest customer of TSMC in 2020, representing 21% of revenues. Keep in mind that in addition to TSMC’s processors going into iPhones, TSMC also fabricates the M1, which powers the new MacBook Air, 13-inch MacBook Pro, and Mac mini and is Apple's first custom-designed Arm-based chip for Mac.\nChart 4\nTSMC has upgraded its manufacturing capabilities countless times to keep Apple’s latest chips at the bleeding edge of processor technologies, since its first chip produced for Apple was installed in the Apple iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus, which were introduced on September 9, 2014.\nChart 5 shows that the number of transistors increased from 2 billion for the iPhone 6 to 11.8 billion for the current iPhone 12.\nChart 5\nThus, investors must consider that:\nAny positive developments from Apple will impact TSMC positively, and positive technological developments from TSMC will impact Apple positively. For example, as long as TSMC is the major manufacturer of Apple chips, growth in Apple or new technologies developed by Apple requiring chips (such as Auto or ADAS), then TSMC will gain.\nSecondly, because of capacity limitations and technology node demands, any expansion in capacity from TSMC will be beneficial to Apple as it moves to smaller nodes while consuming about 25% of TSMC’s chip output on a revenue basis.\nUMC is less transparent and doesn’t provide a breakdown by customer. UMC’s primary customers include premier integrated device manufacturers, such as Texas Instruments(NASDAQ:TXN)and Intel Mobile(NASDAQ:INTC), plus leading fabless design companies, such as MediaTek(OTCPK:MDTKF), Realtek, Qualcomm(NASDAQ:QCOM)and Novatek.\nIn August 2018, UMC announced it would pause research for advancing the productional technology of chips under 10nm nodes. As shown in the figure above, since 2018, the corresponding proportion of the company's advanced processes has been reduced to zero, but for mature nodes such as 65nm and 28nm, the proportion has been increased.\nInvestor Takeaways: Is TSM Or UMC Stock A Better Buy?\nBoth companies compete in the same industry, but their business models are a differentiating metric. TSMC generates most of its revenue on nodes smaller than UMC’s (Chart 1), and most of its planned capex will focus new fabs making ICs at increasing smaller nodes.\nTSMC Positives\nTSMC’s share of the pure-play foundry market was 57% share in 2020, up from 55% in 2019. UMC’s share was constant at slightly less than 8%.\nTSMC benefits from the smaller nodes. Although capex increases with decreasing nodes (Chart 3), so too does gross profit (Chart 2). Thus, TSM has higher revenues than UMC: $48.2B vs $6.283B.\n\nTSMC also has higher annual earnings (EBITDA): $33B vs. UMC $2.349B.\nTSMC ($613B) has a higher market cap than UMC ($23.4B).\nTSMC has more cash on hand: $23.3B vs. UMC ($3.76B).\nTSMC has a higher EPS (3.99) than UMC (0.59).\n\nSeeking Alpha’s quant ratings are derived by measuring a stock's financial metrics against other stocks in the sector on the basis of value, growth, profitability, momentum and analysts’ earnings revisions. In Table 1, both stocks have high rankings. TSMC has a quant rating of 4.63 and UMC has a quant rating of 4.54.\n\nGross margin for TSMC and UMC is shown in Table 2. A positive for TSMC, gross margin is significantly ahead of UMC and the average of all foundries. The Street expects 3Q21 gross margin will improve to 52.9%, given a higher revenue scale, tight foundry supply and improved efficiency of 5nm production.\n\nUMC Positives\nThe comparison of other financial metrics, UMC has stronger financials:\n\nUMC has a lower P/E ratio than TSM: 21.8 vs 28.9\nUMC has less debt than TSM: $2.47B vs $15.4B.\nUMC YTD gains are higher at: 10.558 vs. TSM (8.922).\n\nTable 3 shows stock performance in percent growth for TSM and UMC. In the past year, UMC stock has outperformed TSMC, and did so in the 3-year and 5-year period. But in a 10-year period, TSMC is the better choice.\n\nTSMC is the clear winner over UMC going forward. The company chose its strategy to build chips at the <7nm node. The fact that it is building a 28nm fab in China, the “sweet spot” for UMC, coupled with a new 28nm SMIC (OTCQX:SMICY) fab, will mean lost market share at this node for UMC.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"UMC":0.9,"TSM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802218774,"gmtCreate":1627782194598,"gmtModify":1631888987124,"author":{"id":"4088680581294190","authorId":"4088680581294190","name":"Rabbani","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa0dc93a68fa410249f2e529f3acf988","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088680581294190","authorIdStr":"4088680581294190"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CSCO\">$Cisco(CSCO)$</a>Ayee","listText":"<a 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