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2021-12-23

Almost done is not complete yet. May be off loading if need more funding to pay tax

Tesla Is Top WallStreetBets Interest After Elon Musk Says Stock Sales 'Almost Done'<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克表示股票出售“几乎完成”后，特斯拉成为华尔街最关注的焦点</blockquote>

2021-12-23

Almost done means it is not completed yet. Look out for another dip.

Tesla Is Back Above $1,000. Are New Highs Next?<blockquote>特斯拉回到1000美元以上。接下来是新高吗？</blockquote>

2021-12-06

Yes. Fed is tapering & interest rate is going up. Stock market will be affected.

Apple Stock Is an Attractive Buy, Says KeyBanc. Price Target Set at $191.<blockquote>KeyBanc 表示，苹果股票很有吸引力。目标价定为 191 美元。</blockquote>

2021-12-04

Sceptical about the market movement as the omicron which is now raging the whole world.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-04

Correction is here. Profit taking due to recent surge & prepare for year end holidays.

Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3%<blockquote>Sea Ltd 股价下跌 6%，而 Grab 股价上涨近 3%</blockquote>

2021-12-02

Sell first then buy dip

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-18

Time to sell before it drop.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-10

Can the share price sustain after the recent surge due to good news. Nowadays, market behaved differently when positive news being announced. Will wait for dip to 125 to enter.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-10

$Apple(AAPL)$waiting...

2021-11-09

Moving up to road of recovery

2021-11-08

$Pfizer(PFE)$chiong.....

2021-11-07

$GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$keep going

2021-11-06

$Pfizer(PFE)$😀😀😀

2021-11-05

$Apple(AAPL)$keep holding

2021-11-03

$Apple(AAPL)$having a good turnaround for its chips for IPhone 13

2021-11-03

$Pfizer(PFE)$[财迷]

2021-11-02

$GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$keep going....

2021-11-01

$GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$[微笑]

2021-11-01

The chip productions is not picking up to meet demand, affecting revenue & profit. Hope the borders are opening up to ramp up the production.

Big tech stocks dipped in Monday morning trading<blockquote>大型科技股周一早盘下跌</blockquote>

2021-11-01

Time to sell

抱歉，原内容已删除

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May be off loading if need more funding to pay tax&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"Almost done is not complete yet. May be off loading if need more funding to pay tax&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"Almost done is not complete yet. May be off loading if need more funding to pay tax","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691757676","repostId":"1159200110","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1159200110","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1640241617,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1159200110?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 14:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Is Top WallStreetBets Interest After Elon Musk Says Stock Sales 'Almost Done'<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克表示股票出售“几乎完成”后，特斯拉成为华尔街最关注的焦点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1159200110","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Electric vehicle maker Tesla Inc. has emerged as the most-discussed stock on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBe","content":"<p>Electric vehicle maker&nbsp;<b>Tesla Inc.</b>&nbsp;has emerged as the most-discussed stock on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum as of early Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商<b>特斯拉公司。</b>截至周四早些时候，已成为 Reddit 的 r/WallStreetBets 论坛上讨论最多的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened</b>: Exchange-traded fund&nbsp;<b>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</b>&nbsp;is seeing the highest interest on the forum with 459 mentions as at press time, followed by Tesla with 428 mentions, data from Quiver Quantitative showed.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么事</b>: 交易所买卖基金<b>SPDR标普500 ETF信托</b>Quiver Quantitative 的数据显示，截至发稿时，该论坛的关注度最高，有 459 次被提及，其次是特斯拉，有 428 次被提及。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian cybersecurity company&nbsp;<b>BlackBerry Limited</b>&nbsp;and graphics chipmaker&nbsp;<b>Nvidia Corp.</b>&nbsp;are in the third and fourth positions, having attracted 126 and 100 mentions, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大网络安全公司<b>黑莓有限公司</b>和图形芯片制造商<b>英伟达公司</b>排名第三和第四，分别吸引了126次和100次提及。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Matters</b>: Tesla’s shares surged on Wednesday and its market capitalization regained the $1 trillion mark after CEO&nbsp;<b>Elon Musk</b>&nbsp;said he has now sold enough stock to satisfy his goal of selling 10% of his Tesla stake.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它很重要</b>: 特斯拉股价周三飙升，首席执行官离职后市值重回 1 万亿美元大关<b>埃隆·马斯克</b>表示他现在已经出售了足够的股票，以实现出售特斯拉 10% 股份的目标。</blockquote></p><p> Musk&nbsp;later clarified&nbsp;that a few tranches of the stock sale are yet to be sold, but he’s “almost done.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克后来澄清说，还有几批股票尚未出售，但他 “快完成了”。</blockquote></p><p> The news likely boosted investor confidence that Tesla’s shares will no longer be pressured down by insider selling.</p><p><blockquote>这一消息可能会增强投资者的信心，即特斯拉的股价将不再受到内幕抛售的打压。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla shares have fallen almost 25% after Musk announced plans to sell about 10% of his shares on Nov. 6.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克于 11 月 6 日宣布计划出售约 10% 的股票后，特斯拉股价下跌近 25%。</blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry continues to see high interest on the forum after the company reported better-than-expected financial results for the third quarter on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓周二公布好于预期的第三季度财务业绩后，该论坛继续引起人们的高度关注。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action</b>: Tesla shares closed almost 7.5% higher in Wednesday’s regular trading session at $1,008.87.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为</b>: 特斯拉股价在周三的常规交易时段收盘上涨近 7.5%，报 1,008.87 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Is Top WallStreetBets Interest After Elon Musk Says Stock Sales 'Almost 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Is Top WallStreetBets Interest After Elon Musk Says Stock Sales 'Almost Done'<blockquote>埃隆·马斯克表示股票出售“几乎完成”后，特斯拉成为华尔街最关注的焦点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-23 14:40</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Electric vehicle maker&nbsp;<b>Tesla Inc.</b>&nbsp;has emerged as the most-discussed stock on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum as of early Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商<b>特斯拉公司。</b>截至周四早些时候，已成为 Reddit 的 r/WallStreetBets 论坛上讨论最多的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened</b>: Exchange-traded fund&nbsp;<b>SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust</b>&nbsp;is seeing the highest interest on the forum with 459 mentions as at press time, followed by Tesla with 428 mentions, data from Quiver Quantitative showed.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么事</b>: 交易所买卖基金<b>SPDR标普500 ETF信托</b>Quiver Quantitative 的数据显示，截至发稿时，该论坛的关注度最高，有 459 次被提及，其次是特斯拉，有 428 次被提及。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian cybersecurity company&nbsp;<b>BlackBerry Limited</b>&nbsp;and graphics chipmaker&nbsp;<b>Nvidia Corp.</b>&nbsp;are in the third and fourth positions, having attracted 126 and 100 mentions, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大网络安全公司<b>黑莓有限公司</b>和图形芯片制造商<b>英伟达公司</b>排名第三和第四，分别吸引了126次和100次提及。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Matters</b>: Tesla’s shares surged on Wednesday and its market capitalization regained the $1 trillion mark after CEO&nbsp;<b>Elon Musk</b>&nbsp;said he has now sold enough stock to satisfy his goal of selling 10% of his Tesla stake.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它很重要</b>: 特斯拉股价周三飙升，首席执行官离职后市值重回 1 万亿美元大关<b>埃隆·马斯克</b>表示他现在已经出售了足够的股票，以实现出售特斯拉 10% 股份的目标。</blockquote></p><p> Musk&nbsp;later clarified&nbsp;that a few tranches of the stock sale are yet to be sold, but he’s “almost done.”</p><p><blockquote>马斯克后来澄清说，还有几批股票尚未出售，但他 “快完成了”。</blockquote></p><p> The news likely boosted investor confidence that Tesla’s shares will no longer be pressured down by insider selling.</p><p><blockquote>这一消息可能会增强投资者的信心，即特斯拉的股价将不再受到内幕抛售的打压。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla shares have fallen almost 25% after Musk announced plans to sell about 10% of his shares on Nov. 6.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克于 11 月 6 日宣布计划出售约 10% 的股票后，特斯拉股价下跌近 25%。</blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry continues to see high interest on the forum after the company reported better-than-expected financial results for the third quarter on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓周二公布好于预期的第三季度财务业绩后，该论坛继续引起人们的高度关注。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action</b>: Tesla shares closed almost 7.5% higher in Wednesday’s regular trading session at $1,008.87.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为</b>: 特斯拉股价在周三的常规交易时段收盘上涨近 7.5%，报 1,008.87 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1159200110","content_text":"Electric vehicle maker Tesla Inc. has emerged as the most-discussed stock on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum as of early Thursday.\nWhat Happened: Exchange-traded fund SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust is seeing the highest interest on the forum with 459 mentions as at press time, followed by Tesla with 428 mentions, data from Quiver Quantitative showed.\nCanadian cybersecurity company BlackBerry Limited and graphics chipmaker Nvidia Corp. are in the third and fourth positions, having attracted 126 and 100 mentions, respectively.\nWhy It Matters: Tesla’s shares surged on Wednesday and its market capitalization regained the $1 trillion mark after CEO Elon Musk said he has now sold enough stock to satisfy his goal of selling 10% of his Tesla stake.\nMusk later clarified that a few tranches of the stock sale are yet to be sold, but he’s “almost done.”\nThe news likely boosted investor confidence that Tesla’s shares will no longer be pressured down by insider selling.\nTesla shares have fallen almost 25% after Musk announced plans to sell about 10% of his shares on Nov. 6.\nBlackBerry continues to see high interest on the forum after the company reported better-than-expected financial results for the third quarter on Tuesday.\nPrice Action: Tesla shares closed almost 7.5% higher in Wednesday’s regular trading session at $1,008.87.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4341,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691707821,"gmtCreate":1640237666668,"gmtModify":1640237667354,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088748055325860","idStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Almost done means it is not completed yet. Look out for another dip.&nbsp;","listText":"Almost done means it is not completed yet. Look out for another dip.&nbsp;","text":"Almost done means it is not completed yet. Look out for another dip.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691707821","repostId":"1128124450","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128124450","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640224536,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1128124450?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 09:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Is Back Above $1,000. Are New Highs Next?<blockquote>特斯拉回到1000美元以上。接下来是新高吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128124450","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Tesla stock is back on the move and this time, it's trading back above $1,000. Here's how the charts","content":"<p>Tesla stock is back on the move and this time, it's trading back above $1,000. Here's how the charts are setting up now.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价又开始上涨，这一次，它的交易价格回到了 1,000 美元以上。以下是图表现在的设置情况。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla&nbsp;shares are rallying higher on Wednesday, up 7.5% and climbing back above $1,000 a share. That's got bulls cheering the stock’s recent run.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周三走高，上涨 7.5%，回升至每股 1,000 美元以上。这让多头为该股近期的上涨欢呼。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, Tesla stock hit its lowest level since Oct. 22 and was&nbsp;down 27% from the highs.</p><p><blockquote>周二，特斯拉股价触及10月22日以来的最低水平，较高点下跌27%。</blockquote></p><p> However, shares reversed off that low, climbing more than $50 a share by the close.</p><p><blockquote>然而，股价从这一低点逆转，到收盘时每股攀升超过 50 美元。</blockquote></p><p> That rally is extending itself Wednesday, with Tesla stock up more than 13% from yesterday’s low.</p><p><blockquote>周三，这一涨势仍在继续，特斯拉股市从昨天的低点上涨了 13% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock&nbsp;was in focus this morning&nbsp;ahead of the open, rallying several percent on the hope that CEO Elon Musk would be done selling his shares.</p><p><blockquote>今天早上开盘前，特斯拉股价成为焦点，由于希望首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 停止出售股票，股价上涨了几个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Musk said that&nbsp;he’s “sold enough” to meet&nbsp;his prior pledge. Earlier this week, Musk said he will pay&nbsp;more than $11 billion in taxes this year.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克说，他已经 “卖得足够 ”兑现了之前的承诺。本周早些时候，马斯克表示，他今年将缴纳超过110亿美元的税款。</blockquote></p><p> If Musk really is done selling the stock — and he should be — then that big headwind will be out of the way and we may see it rebound higher. Now that it’s back above $1,000, we have to wonder if Tesla can climb to new highs.</p><p><blockquote>如果马斯克真的停止出售股票——他应该这样做——那么巨大的阻力将会消失，我们可能会看到它反弹得更高。现在它又回到了 1000 美元以上，我们不得不怀疑特斯拉能否攀上新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Trading Tesla Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易特斯拉股票</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e32b497a2bbfdad887112e45eeb92adb\" tg-width=\"1139\" tg-height=\"866\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Daily chart of Tesla stock.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>特斯拉股票日线图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock traded down into the $910 gap-fill level and prior all-time high at $900, and found its footing.</p><p><blockquote>该股交易跌至 910 美元的缺口填补水平和之前的历史高点 900 美元，并找到了立足点。</blockquote></p><p> If we get specific, the 21-week moving average and the 200-unit moving average on the four-hour chart were also nearby.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，四小时图上的 21 周移动平均线和 200 单位移动平均线也在附近。</blockquote></p><p> In any regard, Tesla shares are ripping higher now, trading up through the 10-day moving average and hovering around the key $1,000 level, which has been a key pivot since late October.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，特斯拉股价现在正在飙升，交易价格突破 10 天移动平均线，并在 1,000 美元的关键水平附近徘徊，这是自 10 月下旬以来的一个关键支点。</blockquote></p><p> If it can maintain above $1,000, the next obvious area comes into play near $1,025 to $1,035. There Tesla stock finds its 21-day and 50-day moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>如果它能保持在 1,000 美元以上，下一个明显的区域就会在 1,025 美元至 1,035 美元附近发挥作用。特斯拉股票在那里找到了 21 天和 50 天移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> That should be an area to take a pause, but if Tesla is able to push through this zone, then the $1,100 level and downtrend resistance (blue line) are in play.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是一个需要暂停的区域，但如果特斯拉能够突破这一区域，那么 1,100 美元水平和下降趋势阻力（蓝线）就会发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> On the downside, let’s see if shares struggle with $1,000. In that case, I want to see the now-rising 10-day moving average act as support on the dips.</p><p><blockquote>不利的一面是，让我们看看股价是否会在 1000 美元附近挣扎。在这种情况下，我希望看到目前正在上升的 10 日移动平均线在下跌时起到支撑作用。</blockquote></p><p> If it doesn’t, then the stock could go on to fill the gap down near $940.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有，那么该股可能会继续回补 940 美元附近的缺口。</blockquote></p><p> There’s one other thing: If Tesla rallies up to the 21-day and 50-day moving averages but can’t push through, let’s see if the $1,000 mark and the 10-day moving average act as support.</p><p><blockquote>还有一件事： 如果特斯拉反弹至 21 日和 50 日移动平均线，但无法突破，让我们看看 1000 美元大关和 10 日移动平均线是否会起到支撑作用。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Is Back Above $1,000. Are New Highs Next?<blockquote>特斯拉回到1000美元以上。接下来是新高吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Is Back Above $1,000. Are New Highs Next?<blockquote>特斯拉回到1000美元以上。接下来是新高吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 09:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla stock is back on the move and this time, it's trading back above $1,000. Here's how the charts are setting up now.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价又开始上涨，这一次，它的交易价格回到了 1,000 美元以上。以下是图表现在的设置情况。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla&nbsp;shares are rallying higher on Wednesday, up 7.5% and climbing back above $1,000 a share. That's got bulls cheering the stock’s recent run.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周三走高，上涨 7.5%，回升至每股 1,000 美元以上。这让多头为该股近期的上涨欢呼。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, Tesla stock hit its lowest level since Oct. 22 and was&nbsp;down 27% from the highs.</p><p><blockquote>周二，特斯拉股价触及10月22日以来的最低水平，较高点下跌27%。</blockquote></p><p> However, shares reversed off that low, climbing more than $50 a share by the close.</p><p><blockquote>然而，股价从这一低点逆转，到收盘时每股攀升超过 50 美元。</blockquote></p><p> That rally is extending itself Wednesday, with Tesla stock up more than 13% from yesterday’s low.</p><p><blockquote>周三，这一涨势仍在继续，特斯拉股市从昨天的低点上涨了 13% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock&nbsp;was in focus this morning&nbsp;ahead of the open, rallying several percent on the hope that CEO Elon Musk would be done selling his shares.</p><p><blockquote>今天早上开盘前，特斯拉股价成为焦点，由于希望首席执行官埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 停止出售股票，股价上涨了几个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Musk said that&nbsp;he’s “sold enough” to meet&nbsp;his prior pledge. Earlier this week, Musk said he will pay&nbsp;more than $11 billion in taxes this year.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克说，他已经 “卖得足够 ”兑现了之前的承诺。本周早些时候，马斯克表示，他今年将缴纳超过110亿美元的税款。</blockquote></p><p> If Musk really is done selling the stock — and he should be — then that big headwind will be out of the way and we may see it rebound higher. Now that it’s back above $1,000, we have to wonder if Tesla can climb to new highs.</p><p><blockquote>如果马斯克真的停止出售股票——他应该这样做——那么巨大的阻力将会消失，我们可能会看到它反弹得更高。现在它又回到了 1000 美元以上，我们不得不怀疑特斯拉能否攀上新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Trading Tesla Stock</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易特斯拉股票</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e32b497a2bbfdad887112e45eeb92adb\" tg-width=\"1139\" tg-height=\"866\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Daily chart of Tesla stock.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>特斯拉股票日线图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock traded down into the $910 gap-fill level and prior all-time high at $900, and found its footing.</p><p><blockquote>该股交易跌至 910 美元的缺口填补水平和之前的历史高点 900 美元，并找到了立足点。</blockquote></p><p> If we get specific, the 21-week moving average and the 200-unit moving average on the four-hour chart were also nearby.</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，四小时图上的 21 周移动平均线和 200 单位移动平均线也在附近。</blockquote></p><p> In any regard, Tesla shares are ripping higher now, trading up through the 10-day moving average and hovering around the key $1,000 level, which has been a key pivot since late October.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，特斯拉股价现在正在飙升，交易价格突破 10 天移动平均线，并在 1,000 美元的关键水平附近徘徊，这是自 10 月下旬以来的一个关键支点。</blockquote></p><p> If it can maintain above $1,000, the next obvious area comes into play near $1,025 to $1,035. There Tesla stock finds its 21-day and 50-day moving averages.</p><p><blockquote>如果它能保持在 1,000 美元以上，下一个明显的区域就会在 1,025 美元至 1,035 美元附近发挥作用。特斯拉股票在那里找到了 21 天和 50 天移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> That should be an area to take a pause, but if Tesla is able to push through this zone, then the $1,100 level and downtrend resistance (blue line) are in play.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是一个需要暂停的区域，但如果特斯拉能够突破这一区域，那么 1,100 美元水平和下降趋势阻力（蓝线）就会发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> On the downside, let’s see if shares struggle with $1,000. In that case, I want to see the now-rising 10-day moving average act as support on the dips.</p><p><blockquote>不利的一面是，让我们看看股价是否会在 1000 美元附近挣扎。在这种情况下，我希望看到目前正在上升的 10 日移动平均线在下跌时起到支撑作用。</blockquote></p><p> If it doesn’t, then the stock could go on to fill the gap down near $940.</p><p><blockquote>如果没有，那么该股可能会继续回补 940 美元附近的缺口。</blockquote></p><p> There’s one other thing: If Tesla rallies up to the 21-day and 50-day moving averages but can’t push through, let’s see if the $1,000 mark and the 10-day moving average act as support.</p><p><blockquote>还有一件事： 如果特斯拉反弹至 21 日和 50 日移动平均线，但无法突破，让我们看看 1000 美元大关和 10 日移动平均线是否会起到支撑作用。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/trading-tesla-tsla-stock-back-above-1000-new-highs\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/trading-tesla-tsla-stock-back-above-1000-new-highs","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128124450","content_text":"Tesla stock is back on the move and this time, it's trading back above $1,000. Here's how the charts are setting up now.\nTesla shares are rallying higher on Wednesday, up 7.5% and climbing back above $1,000 a share. That's got bulls cheering the stock’s recent run.\nOn Tuesday, Tesla stock hit its lowest level since Oct. 22 and was down 27% from the highs.\nHowever, shares reversed off that low, climbing more than $50 a share by the close.\nThat rally is extending itself Wednesday, with Tesla stock up more than 13% from yesterday’s low.\nTesla stock was in focus this morning ahead of the open, rallying several percent on the hope that CEO Elon Musk would be done selling his shares.\nMusk said that he’s “sold enough” to meet his prior pledge. Earlier this week, Musk said he will pay more than $11 billion in taxes this year.\nIf Musk really is done selling the stock — and he should be — then that big headwind will be out of the way and we may see it rebound higher. Now that it’s back above $1,000, we have to wonder if Tesla can climb to new highs.\nTrading Tesla Stock\nDaily chart of Tesla stock.\nThe stock traded down into the $910 gap-fill level and prior all-time high at $900, and found its footing.\nIf we get specific, the 21-week moving average and the 200-unit moving average on the four-hour chart were also nearby.\nIn any regard, Tesla shares are ripping higher now, trading up through the 10-day moving average and hovering around the key $1,000 level, which has been a key pivot since late October.\nIf it can maintain above $1,000, the next obvious area comes into play near $1,025 to $1,035. There Tesla stock finds its 21-day and 50-day moving averages.\nThat should be an area to take a pause, but if Tesla is able to push through this zone, then the $1,100 level and downtrend resistance (blue line) are in play.\nOn the downside, let’s see if shares struggle with $1,000. In that case, I want to see the now-rising 10-day moving average act as support on the dips.\nIf it doesn’t, then the stock could go on to fill the gap down near $940.\nThere’s one other thing: If Tesla rallies up to the 21-day and 50-day moving averages but can’t push through, let’s see if the $1,000 mark and the 10-day moving average act as support.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4059,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606038186,"gmtCreate":1638800001536,"gmtModify":1638800422095,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088748055325860","idStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yes. Fed is tapering &amp; interest rate is going up. Stock market will be affected.","listText":"Yes. Fed is tapering &amp; interest rate is going up. Stock market will be affected.","text":"Yes. Fed is tapering & interest rate is going up. Stock market will be affected.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606038186","repostId":"1107494736","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107494736","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638799191,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107494736?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-06 21:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock Is an Attractive Buy, Says KeyBanc. Price Target Set at $191.<blockquote>KeyBanc 表示，苹果股票很有吸引力。目标价定为 191 美元。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107494736","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the ","content":"<p>Apple&nbsp;shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the stock with a bullish outlook, citing growth in the tech giant’s services segment.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周一上涨，此前 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的分析师以这家科技巨头服务部门的增长为由，开始对该股进行看涨前景的报道。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst Brandon Nispel rated the stock Overweight with a $191 price target. The target presents an 18% increase from Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) $161.84 closing price on Friday. The stock was up 1.2% to $163.73 in premarket trading Monday.</p><p><blockquote>分析师 Brandon Nispel 将该股评级为跑赢大盘 191 美元，目标价为 191 美元。该目标比苹果（股票代码：AAPL）周五收盘价 161.84 美元上涨了 18%。周一盘前交易中，该股上涨 1.2%，至 163.73 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 42 analysts covering the stock surveyed by FactSet, 32 have it at a Buy or Overweight rating, nine rated it at Hold, and one rated it Underweight.</p><p><blockquote>在 FactSet 调查的 42 名分析师中，32 名分析师给予该股买入或跑赢大盘评级，9 名分析师给予持有评级，1 名分析师给予跑输大盘评级。</blockquote></p><p> “While AAPL is expensive by historical valuations, we find AAPL attractive relative to other mega-caps,” Nispel wrote on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“尼斯佩尔周一写道：”虽然按历史估值计算，AAPL 价格昂贵，但我们认为相对于其他大盘股，AAPL 很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst outlined three main reasons for his bullish take. Nispel doesn’t believe iPhone unit sales have peaked, with the 5G upgrade cycle potentially pushing Apple past its current peak; he believes the company has managed to increase its product breadth to reduce reliability on iPhone sales; and he foresees services to grow at rates multiple times faster than user growth.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师概述了他看涨的三个主要原因。尼斯佩尔认为 iPhone 的销量并未达到顶峰，5G 升级周期可能会推动苹果超越目前的峰值；他认为该公司已经设法增加了产品范围，以降低 iPhone 销售的可靠性；他预计服务的增长速度将比用户增长速度快数倍。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst forecasts Apple to have 1.09 billion active iPhones and 1.8 billion active installed devices by the end of the first quarter of the 2022 fiscal year. This presents a 7% and 8% year-over-year increase, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师预测，到 2022 财年第一季度末，苹果将拥有 10.9 亿部活跃 iPhone 和 18 亿部活跃安装设备。同比分别增长 7% 和 8%。</blockquote></p><p> “This shows a healthy growing user base where Apple iPhone market share is low relative to key geographies outside the United States,” Nispel wrote. “As the installed base grows, a larger base can support more sales on lower upgrade rates.”</p><p><blockquote>“尼斯佩尔写道：”这表明苹果 iPhone 的用户群正在健康增长，而与美国以外的主要地区相比，iPhone 的市场份额较低。“随着安装基数的增长，更大的基数可以以更低的升级率支持更多的销售”。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s international segment is likely to grow faster in the coming years as other countries adapt to 5G, prompting a wave of upgrades to compatible hardware, Nispel wrote. He estimates every 1% increase in 5G upgrade rates could drive an incremental 11 million iPhone unit sales.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔写道，随着其他国家适应 5G，苹果的国际业务在未来几年可能会增长得更快，从而引发兼容硬件的升级浪潮。他估计，5G升级率每提高1%，就能推动iPhone销量增加1100万部。</blockquote></p><p> As hardware adoption grows, so does Apple’s services business. The segment, which includes services such as Apple TV+, Music, News+, AppleCare, Advertising, and Cloud, has grown 27% in the 2021 fiscal year. Over time, it could become a key profitability driver, growing to more than $100 billion by 2024, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>随着硬件采用率的增长，苹果的服务业务也在增长。该部门包括苹果电视+、音乐、新闻+、AppleCare、广告和云等服务，在2021财年增长了27%。尼斯佩尔表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会成为一个关键的盈利驱动力，到 2024 年将增长到 1000 亿美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> Nispel recognized that Apple’s App Store legal battles were concerning, but were “likely more a bend, not break outcome.” The company has had to make modest changes to its App Store guidance in response to court rulings and regulatory changes, including lowering its commission for some developers. It will likely make more concessions over time, such as allowing developers to provide third-party payment options, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔承认，苹果与 App Store 的法律诉讼令人担忧，但 “更可能是一个转折点，而不是一个突破结果”。为了应对法院裁决和监管变化，该公司不得不对其 App Store 指南进行适度修改，包括降低一些开发者的佣金。尼斯佩尔表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会做出更多让步，例如允许开发商提供第三方支付选项。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect regulation to take time to implement, and believe Apple’s competitive advantage is unlikely to be substantially harmed,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“他补充说：”我们预计监管需要时间来实施，并相信苹果的竞争优势不太可能受到实质性损害。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock Is an Attractive Buy, Says KeyBanc. Price Target Set at $191.<blockquote>KeyBanc 表示，苹果股票很有吸引力。目标价定为 191 美元。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock Is an Attractive Buy, Says KeyBanc. Price Target Set at $191.<blockquote>KeyBanc 表示，苹果股票很有吸引力。目标价定为 191 美元。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-06 21:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple&nbsp;shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the stock with a bullish outlook, citing growth in the tech giant’s services segment.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价周一上涨，此前 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的分析师以这家科技巨头服务部门的增长为由，开始对该股进行看涨前景的报道。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst Brandon Nispel rated the stock Overweight with a $191 price target. The target presents an 18% increase from Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) $161.84 closing price on Friday. The stock was up 1.2% to $163.73 in premarket trading Monday.</p><p><blockquote>分析师 Brandon Nispel 将该股评级为跑赢大盘 191 美元，目标价为 191 美元。该目标比苹果（股票代码：AAPL）周五收盘价 161.84 美元上涨了 18%。周一盘前交易中，该股上涨 1.2%，至 163.73 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Of the 42 analysts covering the stock surveyed by FactSet, 32 have it at a Buy or Overweight rating, nine rated it at Hold, and one rated it Underweight.</p><p><blockquote>在 FactSet 调查的 42 名分析师中，32 名分析师给予该股买入或跑赢大盘评级，9 名分析师给予持有评级，1 名分析师给予跑输大盘评级。</blockquote></p><p> “While AAPL is expensive by historical valuations, we find AAPL attractive relative to other mega-caps,” Nispel wrote on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“尼斯佩尔周一写道：”虽然按历史估值计算，AAPL 价格昂贵，但我们认为相对于其他大盘股，AAPL 很有吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst outlined three main reasons for his bullish take. Nispel doesn’t believe iPhone unit sales have peaked, with the 5G upgrade cycle potentially pushing Apple past its current peak; he believes the company has managed to increase its product breadth to reduce reliability on iPhone sales; and he foresees services to grow at rates multiple times faster than user growth.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师概述了他看涨的三个主要原因。尼斯佩尔认为 iPhone 的销量并未达到顶峰，5G 升级周期可能会推动苹果超越目前的峰值；他认为该公司已经设法增加了产品范围，以降低 iPhone 销售的可靠性；他预计服务的增长速度将比用户增长速度快数倍。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst forecasts Apple to have 1.09 billion active iPhones and 1.8 billion active installed devices by the end of the first quarter of the 2022 fiscal year. This presents a 7% and 8% year-over-year increase, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>该分析师预测，到 2022 财年第一季度末，苹果将拥有 10.9 亿部活跃 iPhone 和 18 亿部活跃安装设备。同比分别增长 7% 和 8%。</blockquote></p><p> “This shows a healthy growing user base where Apple iPhone market share is low relative to key geographies outside the United States,” Nispel wrote. “As the installed base grows, a larger base can support more sales on lower upgrade rates.”</p><p><blockquote>“尼斯佩尔写道：”这表明苹果 iPhone 的用户群正在健康增长，而与美国以外的主要地区相比，iPhone 的市场份额较低。“随着安装基数的增长，更大的基数可以以更低的升级率支持更多的销售”。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s international segment is likely to grow faster in the coming years as other countries adapt to 5G, prompting a wave of upgrades to compatible hardware, Nispel wrote. He estimates every 1% increase in 5G upgrade rates could drive an incremental 11 million iPhone unit sales.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔写道，随着其他国家适应 5G，苹果的国际业务在未来几年可能会增长得更快，从而引发兼容硬件的升级浪潮。他估计，5G升级率每提高1%，就能推动iPhone销量增加1100万部。</blockquote></p><p> As hardware adoption grows, so does Apple’s services business. The segment, which includes services such as Apple TV+, Music, News+, AppleCare, Advertising, and Cloud, has grown 27% in the 2021 fiscal year. Over time, it could become a key profitability driver, growing to more than $100 billion by 2024, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>随着硬件采用率的增长，苹果的服务业务也在增长。该部门包括苹果电视+、音乐、新闻+、AppleCare、广告和云等服务，在2021财年增长了27%。尼斯佩尔表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会成为一个关键的盈利驱动力，到 2024 年将增长到 1000 亿美元以上。</blockquote></p><p> Nispel recognized that Apple’s App Store legal battles were concerning, but were “likely more a bend, not break outcome.” The company has had to make modest changes to its App Store guidance in response to court rulings and regulatory changes, including lowering its commission for some developers. It will likely make more concessions over time, such as allowing developers to provide third-party payment options, Nispel said.</p><p><blockquote>尼斯佩尔承认，苹果与 App Store 的法律诉讼令人担忧，但 “更可能是一个转折点，而不是一个突破结果”。为了应对法院裁决和监管变化，该公司不得不对其 App Store 指南进行适度修改，包括降低一些开发者的佣金。尼斯佩尔表示，随着时间的推移，它可能会做出更多让步，例如允许开发商提供第三方支付选项。</blockquote></p><p> “We expect regulation to take time to implement, and believe Apple’s competitive advantage is unlikely to be substantially harmed,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“他补充说：”我们预计监管需要时间来实施，并相信苹果的竞争优势不太可能受到实质性损害。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-aapl-stock-attractive-buy-51638798446?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-aapl-stock-attractive-buy-51638798446?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107494736","content_text":"Apple shares were rising Monday after analysts at KeyBanc Capital Markets initiated coverage on the stock with a bullish outlook, citing growth in the tech giant’s services segment.\nAnalyst Brandon Nispel rated the stock Overweight with a $191 price target. The target presents an 18% increase from Apple’s (ticker: AAPL) $161.84 closing price on Friday. The stock was up 1.2% to $163.73 in premarket trading Monday.\nOf the 42 analysts covering the stock surveyed by FactSet, 32 have it at a Buy or Overweight rating, nine rated it at Hold, and one rated it Underweight.\n“While AAPL is expensive by historical valuations, we find AAPL attractive relative to other mega-caps,” Nispel wrote on Monday.\nThe analyst outlined three main reasons for his bullish take. Nispel doesn’t believe iPhone unit sales have peaked, with the 5G upgrade cycle potentially pushing Apple past its current peak; he believes the company has managed to increase its product breadth to reduce reliability on iPhone sales; and he foresees services to grow at rates multiple times faster than user growth.\nThe analyst forecasts Apple to have 1.09 billion active iPhones and 1.8 billion active installed devices by the end of the first quarter of the 2022 fiscal year. This presents a 7% and 8% year-over-year increase, respectively.\n“This shows a healthy growing user base where Apple iPhone market share is low relative to key geographies outside the United States,” Nispel wrote. “As the installed base grows, a larger base can support more sales on lower upgrade rates.”\nApple’s international segment is likely to grow faster in the coming years as other countries adapt to 5G, prompting a wave of upgrades to compatible hardware, Nispel wrote. He estimates every 1% increase in 5G upgrade rates could drive an incremental 11 million iPhone unit sales.\nAs hardware adoption grows, so does Apple’s services business. The segment, which includes services such as Apple TV+, Music, News+, AppleCare, Advertising, and Cloud, has grown 27% in the 2021 fiscal year. Over time, it could become a key profitability driver, growing to more than $100 billion by 2024, Nispel said.\nNispel recognized that Apple’s App Store legal battles were concerning, but were “likely more a bend, not break outcome.” The company has had to make modest changes to its App Store guidance in response to court rulings and regulatory changes, including lowering its commission for some developers. It will likely make more concessions over time, such as allowing developers to provide third-party payment options, Nispel said.\n“We expect regulation to take time to implement, and believe Apple’s competitive advantage is unlikely to be substantially harmed,” he added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601761939,"gmtCreate":1638572045894,"gmtModify":1638572046217,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088748055325860","idStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sceptical about the market movement as the omicron which is now raging the whole world.&nbsp;","listText":"Sceptical about the market movement as the omicron which is now raging the whole world.&nbsp;","text":"Sceptical about the market movement as the omicron which is now raging the whole world.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601761939","repostId":"2188523759","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":601760284,"gmtCreate":1638571780701,"gmtModify":1638571781050,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088748055325860","idStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Correction is here. Profit taking due to recent surge &amp; prepare for year end holidays.","listText":"Correction is here. Profit taking due to recent surge &amp; prepare for year end holidays.","text":"Correction is here. Profit taking due to recent surge & prepare for year end holidays.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/601760284","repostId":"1135581145","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135581145","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638544438,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135581145?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3%<blockquote>Sea Ltd 股价下跌 6%，而 Grab 股价上涨近 3%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135581145","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3% in morning trading.","content":"<p>Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Ltd 股价下跌 6%，而 Grab 在早盘交易中上涨近 3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f6e1cc599c71ab4b3f021f3f08854e7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad938b19362172c4e42e41557bb259b3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3%<blockquote>Sea Ltd 股价下跌 6%，而 Grab 股价上涨近 3%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; 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Nowadays, market behaved differently when positive news being announced. Will wait&nbsp;for dip to 125 to enter.&nbsp;","listText":"Can the share price sustain after the recent surge due to good news. Nowadays, market behaved differently when positive news being announced. Will wait&nbsp;for dip to 125 to enter.&nbsp;","text":"Can the share price sustain after the recent surge due to good news. Nowadays, market behaved differently when positive news being announced. Will wait for dip to 125 to enter.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847189466","repostId":"2182808818","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847198446,"gmtCreate":1636499786300,"gmtModify":1636499787248,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088748055325860","idStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>waiting...","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>waiting...","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$waiting...","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0749b46e95e2d31d0dadcbe16955c61a","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847198446","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844127264,"gmtCreate":1636412732869,"gmtModify":1636412733854,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088748055325860","idStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Moving up to road of recovery","listText":"Moving up to road of recovery","text":"Moving up to road of 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PLC(GSK)$</a>keep going....","text":"$GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$keep going....","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cbe8a3bbc4696ff693bdf4ed1efdd7e","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843303257","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849704956,"gmtCreate":1635776090491,"gmtModify":1635776090799,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088748055325860","idStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSK\">$GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSK\">$GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"$GlaxoSmithKline PLC(GSK)$[微笑]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5218377bc9a151d91a3e2fe1c4f601ad","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849704956","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849474350,"gmtCreate":1635775685504,"gmtModify":1635775685767,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088748055325860","idStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The chip productions is not picking up to meet demand, affecting revenue &amp; profit. Hope the borders are opening up to ramp up the production.&nbsp;","listText":"The chip productions is not picking up to meet demand, affecting revenue &amp; profit. Hope the borders are opening up to ramp up the production.&nbsp;","text":"The chip productions is not picking up to meet demand, affecting revenue & profit. Hope the borders are opening up to ramp up the production.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849474350","repostId":"1115697927","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115697927","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635775020,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1115697927?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-01 21:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Big tech stocks dipped in Monday morning trading<blockquote>大型科技股周一早盘下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115697927","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Big tech stocks dipped in Monday morning trading.Apple,Microsoft,Amazon and Alphabet fell more than ","content":"<p>Big tech stocks dipped in Monday morning trading.Apple,Microsoft,Amazon and Alphabet fell more than 1% while Meta Platforms rose more&nbsp;than 2%.</p><p><blockquote>大型科技股在周一早盘交易中下跌.苹果、微软、亚马逊和Alphabet下跌超过1%，而Meta Platforms上涨超过2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2425a5299b1f355922166531db381ec\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big tech stocks dipped in Monday morning trading<blockquote>大型科技股周一早盘下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig tech stocks dipped in Monday morning trading<blockquote>大型科技股周一早盘下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-01 21:57</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Big tech stocks dipped in Monday morning trading.Apple,Microsoft,Amazon and Alphabet fell more than 1% while Meta Platforms rose more&nbsp;than 2%.</p><p><blockquote>大型科技股在周一早盘交易中下跌.苹果、微软、亚马逊和Alphabet下跌超过1%，而Meta Platforms上涨超过2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2425a5299b1f355922166531db381ec\" tg-width=\"405\" tg-height=\"300\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","AMZN":"亚马逊","FB":"ProShares S&P 500 Dynamic Buffer ETF","AAPL":"苹果","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115697927","content_text":"Big tech stocks dipped in Monday morning trading.Apple,Microsoft,Amazon and Alphabet fell more than 1% while Meta Platforms rose more than 2%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"FB":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849463285,"gmtCreate":1635774096200,"gmtModify":1635774096673,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088748055325860","idStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time to sell","listText":"Time to sell","text":"Time to sell","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849463285","repostId":"2180440272","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1125,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":145259635,"gmtCreate":1626226757827,"gmtModify":1633928853442,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088748055325860","authorIdStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Market share come first&nbsp;before profit. Without market shares which accumulated from consumers buying the products, there will be no profit to be made &amp; share price will deteriorate. This is not what investors want to achieve&nbsp;","listText":"Market share come first&nbsp;before profit. Without market shares which accumulated from consumers buying the products, there will be no profit to be made &amp; share price will deteriorate. This is not what investors want to achieve&nbsp;","text":"Market share come first before profit. Without market shares which accumulated from consumers buying the products, there will be no profit to be made & share price will deteriorate. This is not what investors want to achieve","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145259635","repostId":"1148011457","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148011457","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626226288,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148011457?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-14 09:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快就会成为历史——因为公司将为了市场份额而牺牲利润</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148011457","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for t","content":"<p>  <b>Market share trumps pricing power.</b>  Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.</p><p><blockquote><b>市场份额胜过定价权。</b>6月份通胀飙升，但目前处于或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?</p><p><blockquote>从现在起，决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote></p><p> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新工人和留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。增加在关键商品上的支出也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Calculated risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>计算风险</b></blockquote></p><p> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.</p><p><blockquote>但这也是一种经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与竞争对手做生意，而竞争对手突然看到了通过降价脱颖而出的机会。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去了市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote></p><p> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.</p><p><blockquote>6 月份消费者价格指数上涨 0.9% 告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长得太多、太快，根本无法消化。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更高的费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.</p><p><blockquote>同样，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是一个安全的风险.目前!毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。几十年来，我们从未见过如此强大的定价权。过去 12 个月通胀率上升了 5.4%，为 2008 年夏季以来的最快涨幅，核心 CPI 大幅上涨 4.5%，为 1991 年以来的最大涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>只要定价权不威胁到市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here’s why inflation has peaked</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</b></blockquote></p><p> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.</p><p><blockquote>其次，过去一年，消费者被压抑的需求大量增加，为经济提供了很大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote></p><p> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.</p><p><blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正在准备缩减抵押贷款支持证券和国债的购买规模。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote></p><p> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.</p><p><blockquote>四是上半年供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的这种改善为大宗商品和制成品价格的下行奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我说这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但现在这样做还为时过早。美国新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的幽灵。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote></p><p> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.</p><p><blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的峰值，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这种普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>This surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快就会成为历史——因为公司将为了市场份额而牺牲利润</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThis surge in inflation will soon be history — because companies will sacrifice profit for market share<blockquote>这种通胀飙升很快就会成为历史——因为公司将为了市场份额而牺牲利润</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-14 09:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Market share trumps pricing power.</b>  Inflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.</p><p><blockquote><b>市场份额胜过定价权。</b>6月份通胀飙升，但目前处于或接近本周期的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> What will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?</p><p><blockquote>从现在起，决定消费者价格通胀路径的是企业如何回答一个关键问题：保护利润率和保护市场份额哪个更重要？</blockquote></p><p> There is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.</p><p><blockquote>毫无疑问，投入成本飙升。支付更高的工资来吸引新工人和留住现有员工确实会增加运营费用。增加在关键商品上的支出也是如此。因此，将这些更高的成本转嫁给客户的诱惑很大。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Calculated risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>计算风险</b></blockquote></p><p> But it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.</p><p><blockquote>但这也是一种经过计算的风险。人们总是担心长期客户会离开，转而与竞争对手做生意，而竞争对手突然看到了通过降价脱颖而出的机会。如果说各种规模的公司都吸取了一个惨痛的教训，那就是一旦失去了市场份额，想要夺回市场份额是极其困难和昂贵的。</blockquote></p><p> What June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.</p><p><blockquote>6 月份消费者价格指数上涨 0.9% 告诉我们，大多数企业发现他们的运营费用增长得太多、太快，根本无法消化。他们不得不通过向消费者收取更高的费用来弥补利润的萎缩。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd8661c9e62b57cf95d3d61da103d77a\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"710\">Again, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households&nbsp;are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.</p><p><blockquote>同样，这是一个经过计算的风险，而且可能是一个安全的风险.目前!毕竟，家庭现金充裕，渴望消费，这意味着美国人此时不太可能对价格敏感。几十年来，我们从未见过如此强大的定价权。过去 12 个月通胀率上升了 5.4%，为 2008 年夏季以来的最快涨幅，核心 CPI 大幅上涨 4.5%，为 1991 年以来的最大涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> So long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>只要定价权不威胁到市场份额，通胀就会继续攀升。但历史表明，这种情况不会持续太久。价格竞争将在下半年重新出现，并在2022年更加激烈，这应该会缓解通胀压力。原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here’s why inflation has peaked</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这就是通货膨胀见顶的原因</b></blockquote></p><p> First, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着华盛顿从财政刺激转向财政紧缩，我们预计家庭消费将相应放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.</p><p><blockquote>其次，过去一年，消费者被压抑的需求大量增加，为经济提供了很大的前进动力。但随着需求得到满足，这种支出驱动将失去动力。</blockquote></p><p> Third, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.</p><p><blockquote>第三，毫无疑问，美联储正在准备缩减抵押贷款支持证券和国债的购买规模。无论是今年年底还是明年初开始缩减量化宽松，一旦他们这样做，借贷成本都会增加。这将减缓房屋销售和资本投资。</blockquote></p><p> Fourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.</p><p><blockquote>四是上半年供应链瓶颈开始缓解。货船正在以更快的速度卸货，尤其是在西海岸。物流的这种改善为大宗商品和制成品价格的下行奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> Finally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>最后，我说这将是一些不情愿，尽管我们希望宣布战胜新冠肺炎病毒，但现在这样做还为时过早。美国新变种（Delta、Delta plus和现在的Lambda）的出现，加上让70%至80%的美国人口完全接种疫苗的挑战（根据CDC的数据，截至今天，这一数字仅为48%），引发了秋冬季另一波感染的幽灵。这也可能会给经济带来一些压力。</blockquote></p><p> Our assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.</p><p><blockquote>我们的评估是，我们已接近通胀周期的峰值，联邦公开市场委员会的大多数投票成员都认同这种普遍情绪。随着消费者寻求更多交易，以及企业重新专注于锁定（如果不是扩大）市场份额，推动价格竞争和降低零售价格的力量必然会出现。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-reasons-weve-seen-the-peak-of-inflation-for-this-cycle-11626195636?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148011457","content_text":"Market share trumps pricing power.\n\nInflationsurged in June, but it is now at or near its peak for this cycle.\nWhat will determine the path of consumer-price inflation from this point on is how companies answer a key question: What is more important, protecting profit margins or protecting market share?\nThere is no doubt that input costs have soared. Paying higher wages to attract new workers and retain current employees does raise operating expenses. So does spending more on key commodities. The temptation therefore to pass those higher costs on to customers is strong.\nCalculated risk\nBut it is also a calculated risk. There is always the fear that longtime clients will walk away and instead do business with a competitor who suddenly sees an opportunity to stand out from the pack by dropping prices. And if there is one painful lesson companies of all sizes have learned it is that once you lose market share, it is hellishly difficult and expensive to get it back.\nWhat June’s 0.9% jump in the consumer price index tells us is that most businesses found their operating expenses increased way too much and way too quickly to simply be absorbed. They had to make up for those shrinking margins by charging consumers more.\nAgain, it’s a calculated risk and probably a safe one…for now! After all, households are flush with cash and eager to spend, and that means Americans are less likely to be price sensitive at this time. We haven’t seen such pricing power in decades. Inflation has risen by 5.4% over the past 12 months, the fastest gain since the summer of 2008, with core CPI up a sharp 4.5%, the most since 1991.\nSo long as pricing power doesn’t threaten market share, inflation will continue to creep higher. But history has shown this cannot last long. Price competition will re-emerge in the second half of the year and more vigorously in 2022 and that should soften inflation pressures. Here’s why.\nHere’s why inflation has peaked\nFirst, as Washington transitions from fiscal stimulus to fiscal restraint, we expect to see household consumption ease accordingly.\nSecond, the enormous buildup in pent-up demand by consumers over the past year provided the economy with much forward momentum. But as demand is being satisfied, this spending drive will lose momentum.\nThird, there is little doubt the Federal Reserve is gearing up to scale back purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasuries. Whether it begins to taper quantitative easing at the end of this year or early next, once they do, the cost of borrowing will increase. That will slow both home sales and capital investments.\nFourth, the supply-chain bottlenecks of the first half have begun to ease. Cargo ships are being unloaded at a faster pace, especially on the West Coast. This improvement in logistics sets the stage for the price of commodities and finished goods to drift lower.\nFinally, and I say this will some reluctance, as much as we wish to declare victory over the COVID-19 virus, it would be premature to do so. The appearance of new variants (Delta, Delta plus and now Lambda) in the U.S., combined with the challenge of getting 70% to 80% of the U.S. population fully vaccinated (the figure is only 48% as of today, according to the CDC) raises the specter of another wave of infections in the fall and winter. That, too, could also take some wind out of the economy.\nOur assessment is we are near the peak in the inflation cycle and most voting members on the Federal Open Market Committee share this general sentiment. The forces that drive price competition and bring down retail prices are bound to emerge as consumers seek out more deals and as firms refocus on locking in, if not expanding, their market share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171644872,"gmtCreate":1626743970696,"gmtModify":1633771499609,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088748055325860","authorIdStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The current imminent concern is the containment&nbsp;of virus around the world. All are still far from achievering herd&nbsp;immunity; trying to open the economy will be detrimental without feasibility concerted&nbsp;control measures. It only make the whole economy worse off. Now it is best to hand off from the market&nbsp;&amp; let the economy take its recovery course.&nbsp;","listText":"The current imminent concern is the containment&nbsp;of virus around the world. All are still far from achievering herd&nbsp;immunity; trying to open the economy will be detrimental without feasibility concerted&nbsp;control measures. It only make the whole economy worse off. Now it is best to hand off from the market&nbsp;&amp; let the economy take its recovery course.&nbsp;","text":"The current imminent concern is the containment of virus around the world. All are still far from achievering herd immunity; trying to open the economy will be detrimental without feasibility concerted control measures. It only make the whole economy worse off. Now it is best to hand off from the market & let the economy take its recovery course.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171644872","repostId":"2152652683","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179308553,"gmtCreate":1626484604572,"gmtModify":1633926376250,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088748055325860","authorIdStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This is a market correction signal despite the solid earnings from companies. A number of overvalued&nbsp;stocks which is not healthy for the stock market. It needs a breather to bring the overvalued stock to its intended value to reduce the fasle hope of the retail investors who is always the most vulnerable group of victims.&nbsp;","listText":"This is a market correction signal despite the solid earnings from companies. A number of overvalued&nbsp;stocks which is not healthy for the stock market. It needs a breather to bring the overvalued stock to its intended value to reduce the fasle hope of the retail investors who is always the most vulnerable group of victims.&nbsp;","text":"This is a market correction signal despite the solid earnings from companies. A number of overvalued stocks which is not healthy for the stock market. It needs a breather to bring the overvalued stock to its intended value to reduce the fasle hope of the retail investors who is always the most vulnerable group of victims.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179308553","repostId":"1198202103","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806408030,"gmtCreate":1627686580220,"gmtModify":1633757216520,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088748055325860","authorIdStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Expecting a drop in the coming market correction. Price is&nbsp;overheated due to posiyive comment made by&nbsp;management. Take a back seat &amp; think will it materialise within short time under the current situation.&nbsp;","listText":"Expecting a drop in the coming market correction. Price is&nbsp;overheated due to posiyive comment made by&nbsp;management. Take a back seat &amp; think will it materialise within short time under the current situation.&nbsp;","text":"Expecting a drop in the coming market correction. Price is overheated due to posiyive comment made by management. Take a back seat & think will it materialise within short time under the current situation.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806408030","repostId":"1135561812","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135561812","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627637430,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135561812?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-30 17:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135561812","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors  and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in g","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.</li>  <li>AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.</li>  <li>The semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.</li>  <li>AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6e179318de667e33987f1b4a2afb27\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD 的利润率增长是由终端市场不断增长的实力推动的。</li><li>AMD 将 2021 财年的收入指引上调了 $1.0B，毛利率接近 50%。</li><li>即使增长放缓，这家半导体公司明年也可能成为价值 60 亿美元的自由现金流业务。</li><li>AMD 的美元销售额增长比 Nvidia 便宜，而且 AMD 甚至可能增长得更快。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>AMD (AMD) 昨天引起了轰动，这家半导体公司公布的增长和利润率甚至好于预期。AMD 的收入加速增长和毛利率的强劲扩张为该股上涨提供了有力的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why AMD is worth $120</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么 AMD 值 120 美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Before I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.</p><p><blockquote>在深入探讨 AMD 的最新业绩之前，让我们快速回顾一下该公司上一季度的业绩指引。AMD 预计 21 年第二季度的收入至少为 35 亿美元，“高情况 ”指导意味着收入环比增长 7%，毛利率为 47%。</blockquote></p><p> I expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.</p><p><blockquote>我预计 AMD 的收入将达到指导的上限（37 亿美元），最低自由现金流为 8.95 亿美元（环比增长 8%），自由现金流利润率为 24%。鉴于高价 Ryzen 台式机和笔记本电脑处理器和 GPU 的销售加速，以及终端市场广泛实力推动的平均售价/平均售价上涨，我预计 AMD 将超出自己的利润率指导，在 21 年第二季度的毛利率为 48%。我还预测，由于 CPU 和 GPU 平均售价的强劲，AMD 的毛利率指引将会更新。我在《AMD: 年自由现金流迈向 50 亿美元》一书中详细阐述了我对 AMD 21 年第二季度收益的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Turning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.</p><p><blockquote>从 AMD 的实际业绩来看，这家半导体公司再次证明了它正在全力以赴。AMD 21 年第二季度收入为 38.5 亿美元，比高端指引高出 1.5 亿美元，环比增长 12%，图形/计算和企业市场的收入势头仍在继续。由于客户端和图形处理器销售额的增长以及平均售价的增强，图形/计算收入环比增长 7%，达到 22.5 亿美元。Enterprise 已成为 AMD 近几个季度销售增长的驱动力，21 年第二季度的收入为 16 亿美元，环比增长 19%。继 AMD 在 21 年第一季度实现 5% 的环比收入增长后，21 年第二季度企业收入继续加速增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec3e9d1f0b7d59915f9db8790725803\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"587\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.</p><p><blockquote>不过，AMD 21 年第二季度财报中最有趣的发现是毛利率的趋势。AMD 的毛利率跃升 4 个百分点，达到 48%，比指导高出 1 个百分点，原因是价格较高的 Ryzen 处理器（移动和台式机）和 Radeon 显卡的更好组合。21 年第二季度毛利率的上升标志着 AMD 连续第三个季度利润率扩张，我认为 AMD 还没有看到这一趋势的终结。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca6426ffa1332827a6774554d499c36\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>转向现金流。</blockquote></p><p> AMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 报告的经营活动现金流为 9.52 亿美元，自由现金流为 8.88 亿美元，比我的预期少了 700 万美元，但仍几乎是一年前的六倍。随着 AMD 在计算/图形和企业终端市场继续看到强劲的收入增长，我相信到明年年底，AMD 的自由现金流利润率可能会增长到 30%。AMD 将 2021 财年的收入指引（稍后讨论）上调了 $1.0B，这意味着我也在更新今年和明年的自由现金流预期。</blockquote></p><p> AMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 预计今年的收入为 15.6B 美元。假设自由现金流利润率稳定在 23-24%，AMD 预计自由现金流为 $3.6B 至 $3.7B。明年的收入预测尚未更新，但 AMD 在 2022 财年的收入至少应为 200 亿美元（假设同比增长 25%），这意味着明年的自由现金流将达到 46 亿至 48 亿美元.这些预测并没有考虑到 AMD 第三代 EPYC Milan 服务器处理器和价格更高的 GPU 可能会提高 AMD 的自由现金流利润率。明年 30% 的自由现金流利润率意味着自由现金流为 $6.0B。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea23b7429f2edd8ce6dda945a88daa7\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"593\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> AMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>AMD 的收入指引为 4.1B 美元 +/- 1 亿美元，该公司更新了 2021 财年收入和毛利率指引（如预期）。AMD 目前预计 2021 财年收入增长 60%（之前为 50%），毛利率为 48%（之前为 47%）。假设收入增长 60%，AMD 目前的全年收入为 156 亿美元（之前为 146 亿美元），因此 AMD 的新指导评级为 10 亿美元的额外收入，而到目前为止，这些收入还没有计入 AMD 的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5c3c579e4a6472ae2c495a325b9a2b\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 较高的毛利率和销售指引为该公司股票的估值创造了强大的动力。由于 AMD 股价最近下跌，以及 10 亿美元收入的增加，AMD 的美元销售额增长在财报公布后变得更加便宜。AMD 的美元销售额增长率低于 Nvidia，而且 AMD 的增长速度可能会更快： AMD 的收入指导评级为同比增长 60%，而对 Nvidia 的预测则意味着 2021 财年的收入 “仅 ”同比增长 49%。AMD 的市值与收益比为 42.5，对于一家收入增长 60%、毛利率接近 50% 的公司来说，这个比率很低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653c9dd9d37a4abd742703bd87dd3534\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Nvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>根据 2022 财年每股收益 17.29 美元计算，英伟达的市盈率为 44.5。如果 AMD 的盈利增长（2022 财年每股收益为 2.71 美元）与 Nvidia 的估值相同，AMD 的公允价格将为 120 美元（2.71 美元 x 44.5 盈利乘数系数），表明上涨空间为 17%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Challenges to my price target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的价格目标面临的挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 最大的机遇和最大的风险都与毛利率有关。AMD 今年的收入加速和利润率增长强劲，这也是我相信 AMD 可以进行更高估值的主要原因。但毛利率不可能每个季度增长 3-4 个百分点。如果 AMD 的毛利率扩张放缓，或者更糟的是，毛利率回落至 40%，AMD 的股票回报率可能会下降。毛利率趋势的逆转将改变我对 AMD 的看法，并使我 120 美元的股价目标处于危险之中。</blockquote></p><p> Softening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.</p><p><blockquote>CPU 和图形芯片的平均售价疲软可能会成为煤矿中的金丝雀，并可能预示着 AMD 的终端市场疲软。终端市场疲软意味着 AMD 的收入增长将放缓，这可能导致 AMD 利润估值的盈利乘数系数降低。我不认为AMD基于盈利被高估，但市场可能随时不同意我的评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 报告第二季度收入增长和毛利率令人印象深刻。AMD 上调的指引和环比收入加速表明 CPU 和 GPU 的终端市场比预期强劲得多。这可能会导致 AMD 的收入再次加速增长，并在平均售价上升的支撑下，继续扩大到 50%。AMD 的风险状况仍然严重偏向上行。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD: Still Growing, Still Undervalued<blockquote>AMD：仍在增长，仍被低估</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-30 17:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>AMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.</li>  <li>AMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.</li>  <li>The semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.</li>  <li>AMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e6e179318de667e33987f1b4a2afb27\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD 的利润率增长是由终端市场不断增长的实力推动的。</li><li>AMD 将 2021 财年的收入指引上调了 $1.0B，毛利率接近 50%。</li><li>即使增长放缓，这家半导体公司明年也可能成为价值 60 亿美元的自由现金流业务。</li><li>AMD 的美元销售额增长比 Nvidia 便宜，而且 AMD 甚至可能增长得更快。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Jay_Zynism/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.</p><p><blockquote>AMD (AMD) 昨天引起了轰动，这家半导体公司公布的增长和利润率甚至好于预期。AMD 的收入加速增长和毛利率的强劲扩张为该股上涨提供了有力的理由。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why AMD is worth $120</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么 AMD 值 120 美元</b></blockquote></p><p> Before I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.</p><p><blockquote>在深入探讨 AMD 的最新业绩之前，让我们快速回顾一下该公司上一季度的业绩指引。AMD 预计 21 年第二季度的收入至少为 35 亿美元，“高情况 ”指导意味着收入环比增长 7%，毛利率为 47%。</blockquote></p><p> I expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.</p><p><blockquote>我预计 AMD 的收入将达到指导的上限（37 亿美元），最低自由现金流为 8.95 亿美元（环比增长 8%），自由现金流利润率为 24%。鉴于高价 Ryzen 台式机和笔记本电脑处理器和 GPU 的销售加速，以及终端市场广泛实力推动的平均售价/平均售价上涨，我预计 AMD 将超出自己的利润率指导，在 21 年第二季度的毛利率为 48%。我还预测，由于 CPU 和 GPU 平均售价的强劲，AMD 的毛利率指引将会更新。我在《AMD: 年自由现金流迈向 50 亿美元》一书中详细阐述了我对 AMD 21 年第二季度收益的预测。</blockquote></p><p> Turning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.</p><p><blockquote>从 AMD 的实际业绩来看，这家半导体公司再次证明了它正在全力以赴。AMD 21 年第二季度收入为 38.5 亿美元，比高端指引高出 1.5 亿美元，环比增长 12%，图形/计算和企业市场的收入势头仍在继续。由于客户端和图形处理器销售额的增长以及平均售价的增强，图形/计算收入环比增长 7%，达到 22.5 亿美元。Enterprise 已成为 AMD 近几个季度销售增长的驱动力，21 年第二季度的收入为 16 亿美元，环比增长 19%。继 AMD 在 21 年第一季度实现 5% 的环比收入增长后，21 年第二季度企业收入继续加速增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec3e9d1f0b7d59915f9db8790725803\" tg-width=\"1039\" tg-height=\"587\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.</p><p><blockquote>不过，AMD 21 年第二季度财报中最有趣的发现是毛利率的趋势。AMD 的毛利率跃升 4 个百分点，达到 48%，比指导高出 1 个百分点，原因是价格较高的 Ryzen 处理器（移动和台式机）和 Radeon 显卡的更好组合。21 年第二季度毛利率的上升标志着 AMD 连续第三个季度利润率扩张，我认为 AMD 还没有看到这一趋势的终结。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dca6426ffa1332827a6774554d499c36\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"566\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Turning to cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>转向现金流。</blockquote></p><p> AMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 报告的经营活动现金流为 9.52 亿美元，自由现金流为 8.88 亿美元，比我的预期少了 700 万美元，但仍几乎是一年前的六倍。随着 AMD 在计算/图形和企业终端市场继续看到强劲的收入增长，我相信到明年年底，AMD 的自由现金流利润率可能会增长到 30%。AMD 将 2021 财年的收入指引（稍后讨论）上调了 $1.0B，这意味着我也在更新今年和明年的自由现金流预期。</blockquote></p><p> AMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 预计今年的收入为 15.6B 美元。假设自由现金流利润率稳定在 23-24%，AMD 预计自由现金流为 $3.6B 至 $3.7B。明年的收入预测尚未更新，但 AMD 在 2022 财年的收入至少应为 200 亿美元（假设同比增长 25%），这意味着明年的自由现金流将达到 46 亿至 48 亿美元.这些预测并没有考虑到 AMD 第三代 EPYC Milan 服务器处理器和价格更高的 GPU 可能会提高 AMD 的自由现金流利润率。明年 30% 的自由现金流利润率意味着自由现金流为 $6.0B。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ea23b7429f2edd8ce6dda945a88daa7\" tg-width=\"819\" tg-height=\"593\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> AMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>AMD 的收入指引为 4.1B 美元 +/- 1 亿美元，该公司更新了 2021 财年收入和毛利率指引（如预期）。AMD 目前预计 2021 财年收入增长 60%（之前为 50%），毛利率为 48%（之前为 47%）。假设收入增长 60%，AMD 目前的全年收入为 156 亿美元（之前为 146 亿美元），因此 AMD 的新指导评级为 10 亿美元的额外收入，而到目前为止，这些收入还没有计入 AMD 的市值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e5c3c579e4a6472ae2c495a325b9a2b\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:AMD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：AMD）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 较高的毛利率和销售指引为该公司股票的估值创造了强大的动力。由于 AMD 股价最近下跌，以及 10 亿美元收入的增加，AMD 的美元销售额增长在财报公布后变得更加便宜。AMD 的美元销售额增长率低于 Nvidia，而且 AMD 的增长速度可能会更快： AMD 的收入指导评级为同比增长 60%，而对 Nvidia 的预测则意味着 2021 财年的收入 “仅 ”同比增长 49%。AMD 的市值与收益比为 42.5，对于一家收入增长 60%、毛利率接近 50% 的公司来说，这个比率很低。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/653c9dd9d37a4abd742703bd87dd3534\" tg-width=\"908\" tg-height=\"312\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Author)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：作者）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Nvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>根据 2022 财年每股收益 17.29 美元计算，英伟达的市盈率为 44.5。如果 AMD 的盈利增长（2022 财年每股收益为 2.71 美元）与 Nvidia 的估值相同，AMD 的公允价格将为 120 美元（2.71 美元 x 44.5 盈利乘数系数），表明上涨空间为 17%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Challenges to my price target</b></p><p><blockquote><b>我的价格目标面临的挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> The biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 最大的机遇和最大的风险都与毛利率有关。AMD 今年的收入加速和利润率增长强劲，这也是我相信 AMD 可以进行更高估值的主要原因。但毛利率不可能每个季度增长 3-4 个百分点。如果 AMD 的毛利率扩张放缓，或者更糟的是，毛利率回落至 40%，AMD 的股票回报率可能会下降。毛利率趋势的逆转将改变我对 AMD 的看法，并使我 120 美元的股价目标处于危险之中。</blockquote></p><p> Softening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.</p><p><blockquote>CPU 和图形芯片的平均售价疲软可能会成为煤矿中的金丝雀，并可能预示着 AMD 的终端市场疲软。终端市场疲软意味着 AMD 的收入增长将放缓，这可能导致 AMD 利润估值的盈利乘数系数降低。我不认为AMD基于盈利被高估，但市场可能随时不同意我的评估。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Final thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> AMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>AMD 报告第二季度收入增长和毛利率令人印象深刻。AMD 上调的指引和环比收入加速表明 CPU 和 GPU 的终端市场比预期强劲得多。这可能会导致 AMD 的收入再次加速增长，并在平均售价上升的支撑下，继续扩大到 50%。AMD 的风险状况仍然严重偏向上行。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442955-amd-still-growing-still-undervalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4442955-amd-still-growing-still-undervalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135561812","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD's margin gains are driven by growing strength in end markets.\nAMD raised its revenue guidance by $1.0B for FY 2021 and gross margins are edging closer to 50%.\nThe semiconductor firm could be a $6.0B free cash flow business next year, even if growth slows down.\nAMD's dollar sales growth is cheaper than Nvidia's and AMD might even grow faster.\n\nJay_Zynism/iStock via Getty Images\nAMD (AMD) made a splash yesterday after the semiconductor company reported growth and margins that were even better than what was expected. AMD’s revenue acceleration and strong gross margin expansion make a strong case for upside in the stock.\nWhy AMD is worth $120\nBefore I dive into AMD’s latestresults, let’s quickly recap what the firm’s guidance was for the last quarter. For Q2’21, AMD expected a minimum of $3.5B in revenues with “high case” guidance implying 7% revenue growth Q/Q and a gross margin of 47%.\nI expected AMD’s revenues to hit the high end of guidance ($3.7B), to have a minimum free cash flow of $895M (8% Q/Q growth) and a free cash flow margin of 24%. Given the acceleration of sales in higher-priced Ryzen desktop and notebook processors and GPUs as well as higher average selling prices/ASPs driven by broad-based strength in end markets, I expected AMD to beat its own margin guidance and report a gross margin of 48% for Q2’21. I also predicted a refreshment of AMD’s gross margin guidance due to strength in CPU and GPU ASPs. I laid out my forecast for AMD’s Q2’21 earnings in detail inAMD: On The Road To $5 Billion In Annual Free Cash Flow.\nTurning to AMD’s actual results, the semiconductor firm proved once more that it is firing on all cylinders. AMD’s Q2’21 revenues were $3,850M, $150M above the high-end of guidance and up 12% Q/Q, with revenue momentum continuing in both Graphics/Computing and Enterprise markets. Graphics/Computing revenues increased 7% Q/Q to $2,250M because of higher client and graphic processor sales as well as strengthening ASPs. Enterprise, which has become the driver of AMD’s sales growth in recent quarters, saw Q2'21 revenues of $1.6B, up 19% Q/Q. Enterprise revenues continued to accelerate in Q2'21, after AMD recorded 5% Q/Q revenue growth in Q1'21.\n(Source:AMD)\nThe most interesting revelation of AMD’s Q2’21 earnings, however, was the trend in gross margins. AMD's gross margin jumped 4 PP to 48%, 1 PP above guidance because of a better mix of higher-priced Ryzen processors (both mobile and desktop) and Radeon graphic cards. The uptick in gross margins in Q2’21 marked the third straight quarter of margin expansion for AMD and I don’t believe AMD has seen the end of this trend yet.\n(Source:AMD)\nTurning to cash flow.\nAMD reported cash flow from operating activities of $952M and free cash flow of $888M, $7M short of my expectation, but still almost six times more than a year ago. As AMD continues to see strong revenue growth tailwinds in both Computing/Graphics and Enterprise end markets, I believe AMD could grow its free cash flow margin to 30% by the end of next year. AMD raised its revenue guidance for FY 2021 (discussed later) by $1.0B which means I am also refreshing my free cash flow expectations for this year and next year.\nAMD expects to have revenues of $15.6B this year. Assuming a stable free cash flow margin of 23-24%, AMD is looking at free cash flow of $3.6B to $3.7B. Revenue estimates for next year are not refreshed yet, but AMD should have revenues of at least $20B in FY 2022 (assuming 25% Y/Y growth), implying free cash flow of $4.6B to $4.8B next year… and these estimates do not account for the possibility that AMD’s 3rd-gen EPYC Milan-powered server processors and higher-priced GPUs improve AMD’s free cash flow margin. A 30% free cash flow margin next year implies a free cash flow of $6.0B.\n(Source: Author)\n\n\n\n\n\nAMD is guiding for $4.1B in revenues +/- $100 million and the firm refreshed its FY 2021 revenue and gross margin guidance (as predicted). AMD now expects 60% revenue growth for FY 2021 (before 50%) and a gross margin of 48% (before 47%). Assuming 60% revenue growth, AMD is now looking at full year revenues of $15.6B (before $14.6B), so AMD's new guidance calls for $1.0B in additional revenues that were so far not priced into AMD’s market value.\n(Source:AMD)\nAMD’s higher gross margins and sales guidance create a potent force for the firm’s stock to revalue higher. Because of the recent dip in AMD’s shares and the addition of $1.0B in revenues, AMD’s dollar sales growth has become even cheaper after earnings. AMD’s dollar sales growth is valued lower than Nvidia’s and AMD is growing potentially at a faster rate: AMD's revenue guidance calls for 60% Y/Y growth and estimates for Nvidia imply \"only\" 49% Y/Y revenue growth for FY 2021. AMD has a market-capitalization-to-earnings ratio of 42.5 which is low for a firm that grows revenues 60% and that has a gross margin closing in on 50%.\n(Source: Author)\n\n\n\n\n\nNvidia’s P-E ratio based on an FY 2022 EPS of $17.29 is 44.5. If AMD earnings growth (FY 2022 EPS of $2.71) was valued the same as Nvidia’s, AMD’s fair price would be $120 ($2.71 x 44.5 earnings multiplier factor), indicating 17% upside.\nChallenges to my price target\nThe biggest opportunities and the biggest risks for AMD are tied to gross margins. AMD is having a year of strong revenue acceleration and margin growth, which is the chief reason why I believe AMD can revalue higher. But gross margins can't grow 3-4 PP every quarter. If AMD's gross margin expansion slows, or worse, gross margins drop back to 40%, decreasing stock returns for AMD are likely. A reversal in the gross margin trend would change my opinion on AMD and put my $120 stock price target in jeopardy.\nSoftening ASPs for CPUs and graphic chips are likely going to be the canary in the coal mine and could indicate weakening end markets for AMD ahead of time. Softer end markets imply AMD's revenue growth will slow which could result in a lower earnings multiplier factor by which AMD's profits are valued. I don't believe AMD is overvalued based on earnings, but the market may disagree with my assessment at any time.\nFinal thoughts\nAMD reported impressive revenue growth and gross margins for Q2. AMD's raised guidance and Q/Q revenue acceleration indicate that end markets for CPUs and GPUs are a lot stronger than expected. This could lead to another year of revenue acceleration and a continual expansion of AMD’s gross margin to 50%, supported by rising ASPs. AMD's risk profile is still heavily skewed to the upside.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806062323,"gmtCreate":1627617736062,"gmtModify":1631885592816,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088748055325860","authorIdStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a> Due to the recent surge in COVID cases in Asia, the travel industry will not be able to move forward. Hence, it will probably take a couple of months to recover. Now, it stay out to focus on other lucrative stocks.","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">$AMD(AMD)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a> Due to the recent surge in COVID cases in Asia, the travel industry will not be able to move forward. Hence, it will probably take a couple of months to recover. Now, it stay out to focus on other lucrative stocks.","text":"$AMD(AMD)$ $SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$ Due to the recent surge in COVID cases in Asia, the travel industry will not be able to move forward. Hence, it will probably take a couple of months to recover. Now, it stay out to focus on other lucrative stocks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806062323","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2829,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805065616,"gmtCreate":1627825157335,"gmtModify":1633756112215,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088748055325860","authorIdStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Restructuring is to trim human resource&nbsp;reduancy &amp; improve operations efficency. Lot of wastage in big corporate companies&nbsp; due to old culture mindset dragging it from advancing. Need a good clean up.&nbsp;","listText":"Restructuring is to trim human resource&nbsp;reduancy &amp; improve operations efficency. Lot of wastage in big corporate companies&nbsp; due to old culture mindset dragging it from advancing. Need a good clean up.&nbsp;","text":"Restructuring is to trim human resource reduancy & improve operations efficency. Lot of wastage in big corporate companies due to old culture mindset dragging it from advancing. Need a good clean up.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805065616","repostId":"1153879814","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1153879814","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627784753,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1153879814?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 10:25","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"SIA, SIAE, Singtel potential candidates for company restructuring: Maybank<blockquote>SIA、SIAE、Singtel 公司重组的潜在候选者：马来亚银行</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153879814","media":"Singapore Business","summary":"Who will follow in SPH, Keppel and Sembcorp steps in corporate restructuring?\n\nDrivers are in play f","content":"<p>  <b><i>Who will follow in SPH, Keppel and Sembcorp steps in corporate restructuring?</i></b>  Drivers are in play for more corporate restructuring from Singapore firms following the major restructuring plans of Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) and a possible merger between Keppel Offshore &amp; Marine and Sembcorp Marine Ltd, according to a report by Maybank Kim Eng.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>谁将跟随SPH、吉宝和胜科的公司重组步骤？</i></b>根据 Maybank Kim Eng 的一份报告，在新加坡报业控股公司 (SPH) 的重大重组计划以及吉宝近海与胜科海事有限公司可能合并之后，新加坡公司进行更多企业重组的驱动力正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> According to the report, the drivers catalyzing these restructurings remain in play and are unlikely to retreat in the near-term.</p><p><blockquote>报告称，催化这些重组的驱动因素仍在发挥作用，短期内不太可能消退。</blockquote></p><p> Some Singapore companies named by Maybank that are potential candidates for a corporate restructuring are Singtel, Singapore Airlines Group and the Singapore Institute of Aerospace Engineers.</p><p><blockquote>马来亚银行点名的一些新加坡公司是公司重组的潜在候选人，包括新加坡电信、新加坡航空集团和新加坡航空航天工程师学会。</blockquote></p><p> Maybank said Singtel is currently exploring options to review its stakes in associates and infrastructure assets to unlock latent value.</p><p><blockquote>马来亚银行表示，新加坡电信目前正在探索审查其在联营公司和基础设施资产中的股份，以释放潜在价值。</blockquote></p><p> Continued weakness and expected long lead time to recovery of international air travel may force certain rationalization for SIA and SIAE. Meanwhile, big developers like CityDev and UOL also have sizable development businesses similar to CAPL.</p><p><blockquote>持续疲软以及预计国际航空旅行复苏的较长准备时间可能会迫使新航和新航进行某些合理化。与此同时，像CityDev和UOL这样的大型开发商也有类似CAPL的可观开发业务。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1618986048053","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SIA, SIAE, Singtel potential candidates for company restructuring: Maybank<blockquote>SIA、SIAE、Singtel 公司重组的潜在候选者：马来亚银行</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSIA, SIAE, Singtel potential candidates for company restructuring: Maybank<blockquote>SIA、SIAE、Singtel 公司重组的潜在候选者：马来亚银行</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Singapore Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-01 10:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b><i>Who will follow in SPH, Keppel and Sembcorp steps in corporate restructuring?</i></b>  Drivers are in play for more corporate restructuring from Singapore firms following the major restructuring plans of Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) and a possible merger between Keppel Offshore &amp; Marine and Sembcorp Marine Ltd, according to a report by Maybank Kim Eng.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>谁将跟随SPH、吉宝和胜科的公司重组步骤？</i></b>根据 Maybank Kim Eng 的一份报告，在新加坡报业控股公司 (SPH) 的重大重组计划以及吉宝近海与胜科海事有限公司可能合并之后，新加坡公司进行更多企业重组的驱动力正在发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> According to the report, the drivers catalyzing these restructurings remain in play and are unlikely to retreat in the near-term.</p><p><blockquote>报告称，催化这些重组的驱动因素仍在发挥作用，短期内不太可能消退。</blockquote></p><p> Some Singapore companies named by Maybank that are potential candidates for a corporate restructuring are Singtel, Singapore Airlines Group and the Singapore Institute of Aerospace Engineers.</p><p><blockquote>马来亚银行点名的一些新加坡公司是公司重组的潜在候选人，包括新加坡电信、新加坡航空集团和新加坡航空航天工程师学会。</blockquote></p><p> Maybank said Singtel is currently exploring options to review its stakes in associates and infrastructure assets to unlock latent value.</p><p><blockquote>马来亚银行表示，新加坡电信目前正在探索审查其在联营公司和基础设施资产中的股份，以释放潜在价值。</blockquote></p><p> Continued weakness and expected long lead time to recovery of international air travel may force certain rationalization for SIA and SIAE. Meanwhile, big developers like CityDev and UOL also have sizable development businesses similar to CAPL.</p><p><blockquote>持续疲软以及预计国际航空旅行复苏的较长准备时间可能会迫使新航和新航进行某些合理化。与此同时，像CityDev和UOL这样的大型开发商也有类似CAPL的可观开发业务。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://sbr.com.sg/economy/news/sia-siae-singtel-potential-candidates-company-restructuring-maybank\">Singapore Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"C6L.SI":"新加坡航空公司"},"source_url":"https://sbr.com.sg/economy/news/sia-siae-singtel-potential-candidates-company-restructuring-maybank","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153879814","content_text":"Who will follow in SPH, Keppel and Sembcorp steps in corporate restructuring?\n\nDrivers are in play for more corporate restructuring from Singapore firms following the major restructuring plans of Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) and a possible merger between Keppel Offshore & Marine and Sembcorp Marine Ltd, according to a report by Maybank Kim Eng.\nAccording to the report, the drivers catalyzing these restructurings remain in play and are unlikely to retreat in the near-term.\nSome Singapore companies named by Maybank that are potential candidates for a corporate restructuring are Singtel, Singapore Airlines Group and the Singapore Institute of Aerospace Engineers.\nMaybank said Singtel is currently exploring options to review its stakes in associates and infrastructure assets to unlock latent value.\nContinued weakness and expected long lead time to recovery of international air travel may force certain rationalization for SIA and SIAE. Meanwhile, big developers like CityDev and UOL also have sizable development businesses similar to CAPL.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"C6L.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836064676,"gmtCreate":1629439348195,"gmtModify":1633684808959,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088748055325860","authorIdStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It is not going to be a spike in revenue when the doors open. Leisure travelling will take time to pick up not many countries and ready for it.&nbsp;","listText":"It is not going to be a spike in revenue when the doors open. Leisure travelling will take time to pick up not many countries and ready for it.&nbsp;","text":"It is not going to be a spike in revenue when the doors open. Leisure travelling will take time to pick up not many countries and ready for it.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836064676","repostId":"1171387822","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":643,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170874315,"gmtCreate":1626423731237,"gmtModify":1633926873912,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088748055325860","authorIdStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"History has proven that by investing in sound quality stock to build up solid portfolio. Event the stock market nose dive during a correction, it still survive. Only the weak stocks will be wiped out within short time. No point joining the queue for quick profit &amp; can't get out on time. That is where the retail investors lose money when adverse news stir the market.","listText":"History has proven that by investing in sound quality stock to build up solid portfolio. Event the stock market nose dive during a correction, it still survive. Only the weak stocks will be wiped out within short time. No point joining the queue for quick profit &amp; can't get out on time. That is where the retail investors lose money when adverse news stir the market.","text":"History has proven that by investing in sound quality stock to build up solid portfolio. Event the stock market nose dive during a correction, it still survive. Only the weak stocks will be wiped out within short time. No point joining the queue for quick profit & can't get out on time. That is where the retail investors lose money when adverse news stir the market.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170874315","repostId":"1131457770","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":814,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147971993,"gmtCreate":1626331116112,"gmtModify":1633927786852,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088748055325860","authorIdStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The economy is still not out of the woods yet. If it trigger the interest hike, will do more damages than good .","listText":"The economy is still not out of the woods yet. If it trigger the interest hike, will do more damages than good .","text":"The economy is still not out of the woods yet. If it trigger the interest hike, will do more damages than good .","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147971993","repostId":"2151548988","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148698210,"gmtCreate":1625970005330,"gmtModify":1633931264669,"author":{"id":"4088748055325860","authorId":"4088748055325860","name":"Kencom","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/933749ae75c1d77b2cb7a961bacc251f","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088748055325860","authorIdStr":"4088748055325860"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"With the current COVID-19 situation, investors are waiting at the sidelines to see the respective countries on the degree of salvage of their economies. A clearer indicator will soon by up some where near end of the year. Keep an eye on the recovery developments. Market eventually will recover.&nbsp;","listText":"With the current COVID-19 situation, investors are waiting at the sidelines to see the respective countries on the degree of salvage of their economies. A clearer indicator will soon by up some where near end of the year. Keep an eye on the recovery developments. Market eventually will recover.&nbsp;","text":"With the current COVID-19 situation, investors are waiting at the sidelines to see the respective countries on the degree of salvage of their economies. A clearer indicator will soon by up some where near end of the year. Keep an eye on the recovery developments. Market eventually will recover.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148698210","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1185154176?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能会持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济正在蓬勃发展，收入正在上升，美联储正在提供前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（照片由豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社通过盖蒂图片社提供）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经上涨了 17%，确实可能会出现调整。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于以下六个原因，我们仍处于三到五年股市牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 存在巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。综上所述，私营部门被压抑的巨大需求将有助于推动美国今年的 GDP 增长率达到 8%，之后几年将达到 3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold 集团首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森 (Jim Paulsen) 指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年龄，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释国内需求的大幅增长。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未动用的储蓄，因为他们为疫情蹲下身子。个人储蓄率达到GDP的近16%，而战后平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表明显改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。随着就业和经济保持强劲，消费者的信心增强，他们将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会改善，这无疑会促进经济增长。劳动力参与率还有提高的空间，在我们实现充分就业之前留下多余的就业能力，从而限制经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看企业中被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听到的所有东西的短缺吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的流行病，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清算。但现在，公司不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司还削减了产能，并正在再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平后，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近 23%。这创造了持续增长，并告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>今年GDP将增长7%-8%，明年将增长4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平，支撑股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得太快了，分析师们都跟不上了。华尔街分析师预计标普500今年每股收益为 190 美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激措施通常需要六到八个月才能生效，而最近的许多波动都发生在这个时间窗内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计 2021 年标普500盈利将更接近 220 美元，而不是普遍预期的 190 美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>“保尔森说：”分析师仍然低估了利润已经提高了多少，以及利润将提高多少。“我们的政策官员反应过度。他们解决了崩盘问题，但基本面却有了巨大的改善。就利润复苏而言，这种情况仍在上演”。</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出台。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 镇上有了新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通货膨胀。在这个过程中，央行扼杀了增长。这也是过去 20 年是战后增长最慢的原因之一。然而，现在美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的量规来衡量这一点。以 GDP 增长为例，减去 10 年期国债收益率 ESTMUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在 1980 年至 2010 年的大部分时间里都是负值，当时美联储保持增长冷静以遏制通胀。然而现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将 10 年期国债收益率保持在远低于 GDP 增长率的水平，这使得经济过热。这就是 1950-1965 年期间的情况，一些分析家称看涨期权为 “资本主义的黄金时代”，因为它在增长过程中出现了滑坡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀不会杀死牛市</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通货膨胀在短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。以下是综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。商业资本支出的激增将继续提高公司的生产力。这使他们能够避免将不断上涨的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地生产商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹阶段，通常会出现以下动态。几个月来，股市一直横盘整理，主要是因为对通货膨胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，降低了股票估值。这种动态在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中大约在这一点上表现出来。简而言之，当股市标记时间，甚至回调时，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将使股票估值降低，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在今年年底达到 220 美元，并且该指数因调整而处于 4,000 至 4,100 点，那么股票的市盈率将为 18-19，低于 1990 年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>一如既往，道琼斯工业平均指数 (DJIA) 和罗素 2000 小型股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们回到横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6. 情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一个逆向投资者，我认为过度的情绪是时候筹集一些现金了。我们还没看到。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。它最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说，警告路径是从 4 点开始的。另一方面，共同基金现金最近达到 4.6 万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循的三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来经济持续复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题将是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性产品。</b>持有对经济敏感的业务，并在回调时增持这些业务。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果你想要收益率，那就选择支付股息但也有资本增值潜力的股票——而不是销售必需品等商品的稳定增长公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信中（链接在下面的简介中），我最近建议或重申了家得宝（Home Depot）在零售业、B. Riley Financial（一家市场和投资银行公司）以及消费金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长往往会更高。小心中国。它的人口老龄化。有限的劳动力增长可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的中美紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁迫使全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能会持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能会持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济正在蓬勃发展，收入正在上升，美联储正在提供前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（照片由豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社通过盖蒂图片社提供）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经上涨了 17%，确实可能会出现调整。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于以下六个原因，我们仍处于三到五年股市牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 存在巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。综上所述，私营部门被压抑的巨大需求将有助于推动美国今年的 GDP 增长率达到 8%，之后几年将达到 3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold 集团首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森 (Jim Paulsen) 指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年龄，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释国内需求的大幅增长。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未动用的储蓄，因为他们为疫情蹲下身子。个人储蓄率达到GDP的近16%，而战后平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表明显改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。随着就业和经济保持强劲，消费者的信心增强，他们将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会改善，这无疑会促进经济增长。劳动力参与率还有提高的空间，在我们实现充分就业之前留下多余的就业能力，从而限制经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看企业中被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听到的所有东西的短缺吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的流行病，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清算。但现在，公司不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司还削减了产能，并正在再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平后，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近 23%。这创造了持续增长，并告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>今年GDP将增长7%-8%，明年将增长4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平，支撑股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得太快了，分析师们都跟不上了。华尔街分析师预计标普500今年每股收益为 190 美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激措施通常需要六到八个月才能生效，而最近的许多波动都发生在这个时间窗内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计 2021 年标普500盈利将更接近 220 美元，而不是普遍预期的 190 美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>“保尔森说：”分析师仍然低估了利润已经提高了多少，以及利润将提高多少。“我们的政策官员反应过度。他们解决了崩盘问题，但基本面却有了巨大的改善。就利润复苏而言，这种情况仍在上演”。</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出台。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 镇上有了新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通货膨胀。在这个过程中，央行扼杀了增长。这也是过去 20 年是战后增长最慢的原因之一。然而，现在美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的量规来衡量这一点。以 GDP 增长为例，减去 10 年期国债收益率 ESTMUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在 1980 年至 2010 年的大部分时间里都是负值，当时美联储保持增长冷静以遏制通胀。然而现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将 10 年期国债收益率保持在远低于 GDP 增长率的水平，这使得经济过热。这就是 1950-1965 年期间的情况，一些分析家称看涨期权为 “资本主义的黄金时代”，因为它在增长过程中出现了滑坡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀不会杀死牛市</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通货膨胀在短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。以下是综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。商业资本支出的激增将继续提高公司的生产力。这使他们能够避免将不断上涨的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地生产商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹阶段，通常会出现以下动态。几个月来，股市一直横盘整理，主要是因为对通货膨胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，降低了股票估值。这种动态在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中大约在这一点上表现出来。简而言之，当股市标记时间，甚至回调时，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将使股票估值降低，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在今年年底达到 220 美元，并且该指数因调整而处于 4,000 至 4,100 点，那么股票的市盈率将为 18-19，低于 1990 年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>一如既往，道琼斯工业平均指数 (DJIA) 和罗素 2000 小型股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们回到横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6. 情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一个逆向投资者，我认为过度的情绪是时候筹集一些现金了。我们还没看到。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。它最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说，警告路径是从 4 点开始的。另一方面，共同基金现金最近达到 4.6 万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循的三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来经济持续复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题将是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性产品。</b>持有对经济敏感的业务，并在回调时增持这些业务。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果你想要收益率，那就选择支付股息但也有资本增值潜力的股票——而不是销售必需品等商品的稳定增长公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信中（链接在下面的简介中），我最近建议或重申了家得宝（Home Depot）在零售业、B. Riley Financial（一家市场和投资银行公司）以及消费金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长往往会更高。小心中国。它的人口老龄化。有限的劳动力增长可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的中美紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁迫使全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}