JeremyChuax的个人主页 - 老虎社区

JeremyChuax

JeremyChuax

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2021-12-20

Wow

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2021-12-18

Now where the problem comes.

EV stocks fell sharply in morning trading ,with Rivian sliding 12%,Lucid Group sliding 7% and General Motors sliding 5%<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘大幅下跌，Rivian跌12%，Lucid Group跌7%，通用跌5%</blockquote>

2021-12-17

Nice

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2021-12-16

Nice

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2021-12-15

Off risk haha.

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2021-12-14

Power!

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2021-12-13

Woohoo

Apple rose 1% in premarket trading,with its market value reaching nearly 3 trillion dollars<blockquote>苹果盘前涨1%市值近3万亿美元</blockquote>

2021-12-13

Will it up soon?

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2021-12-12

Haha.

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2021-12-11

Good or bad??

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2021-12-10

Like pls

EV stocks mixed in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘涨跌互现</blockquote>

2021-12-08

Yes agreed on more growth better.

Apple Stock: What Happens When The Cash Runs Out?<blockquote>苹果股票：现金用完会发生什么？</blockquote>

2021-12-07

Like pls

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2021-12-06

Wa

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2021-12-04

So many.

US IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：数字银行和云基础设施引领IPO周4</blockquote>

2021-12-02

Safe. Phew

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2021-12-01

Sweet

Apple shares rose nearly 2% to a new high<blockquote>苹果股价上涨近2%，创新高</blockquote>

2021-12-01

Up

10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Wednesday<blockquote>周三10个最大价格目标变化</blockquote>

2021-12-01

Haha zoom?

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2021-11-30

Like pls.

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Group跌7%，通用跌5%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113440959","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV stocks fell sharply in morning trading ,with Rivian sliding 12%,Lucid Group sliding 7%, Lordstown","content":"<p>EV stocks fell sharply in morning trading ,with Rivian sliding 12%,Lucid Group sliding 7%, Lordstown&nbsp;Motors&nbsp;sliding&nbsp;6%&nbsp;and General Motors sliding 5%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd629a366b9a963976bc2a56e7c34763\" tg-width=\"282\" tg-height=\"468\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股早盘大幅下跌，Rivian下跌12%，Lucid Group下跌7%，Lordstown Motors下跌6%，通用汽车下跌5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-17 22:53</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>EV stocks fell sharply in morning trading ,with Rivian sliding 12%,Lucid Group sliding 7%, Lordstown&nbsp;Motors&nbsp;sliding&nbsp;6%&nbsp;and General Motors sliding 5%.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd629a366b9a963976bc2a56e7c34763\" tg-width=\"282\" tg-height=\"468\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股早盘大幅下跌，Rivian下跌12%，Lucid Group下跌7%，Lordstown Motors下跌6%，通用汽车下跌5%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GM":"通用汽车","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","LCID":"Lucid Group 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risk haha.","listText":"Off risk haha.","text":"Off risk 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple rose 1% in premarket trading,with its market value reaching nearly 3 trillion dollars<blockquote>苹果盘前涨1%市值近3万亿美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-13 17:21</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple rose 1% in premarket trading,&nbsp;with its market value reaching nearly 3 trillion dollars.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9791d034ae0c6c9d0e8735f3c22dbcb\" tg-width=\"773\" tg-height=\"573\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Apple Inc</b>(NASDAQ:AAPL) is gearing up to launch the latest version of its iPhone and iPad operating system, which will contain nudity detection in the Messages app for devices used by children, as per journalist&nbsp;<b>Mark Gurman.</b></p><p><blockquote>苹果盘前交易中上涨1%，市值接近3万亿美元。<b>苹果公司</b>据记者报道，（纳斯达克：AAPL）正准备推出最新版本的iPhone和iPad操作系统，该操作系统将在儿童使用的设备的Messages应用程序中包含裸体检测功能<b>马克·古尔曼。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191584533","content_text":"Apple rose 1% in premarket trading, with its market value reaching nearly 3 trillion dollars.Apple Inc(NASDAQ:AAPL) is gearing up to launch the latest version of its iPhone and iPad operating system, which will contain nudity detection in the Messages app for devices used by children, as per journalist Mark Gurman.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604235075,"gmtCreate":1639400462729,"gmtModify":1639402151500,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089499026613770","authorIdStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will it up soon?","listText":"Will it up soon?","text":"Will it up soon?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604235075","repostId":"1149966115","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604045488,"gmtCreate":1639289572173,"gmtModify":1639289572602,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089499026613770","authorIdStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha.","listText":"Haha.","text":"Haha.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604045488","repostId":"2190679207","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4368,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605576471,"gmtCreate":1639200804618,"gmtModify":1639200804959,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089499026613770","authorIdStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good or bad??","listText":"Good or bad??","text":"Good or bad??","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605576471","repostId":"2190767366","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2879,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605609309,"gmtCreate":1639148939926,"gmtModify":1639148940296,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089499026613770","authorIdStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605609309","repostId":"1151890002","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1151890002","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1639147684,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151890002?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-10 22:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks mixed in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘涨跌互现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151890002","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV stocks mixed in morning trading.Lucid,Faraday Future,Nio,Li Auto and Sono Group climbed between 1","content":"<p>EV stocks mixed in morning trading.Lucid,Faraday Future,Nio,Li Auto&nbsp;and&nbsp;Sono Group&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 4%.Tesla&nbsp;and&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;2%.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股早盘涨跌互现。Lucid、法拉第未来、蔚来、理想汽车和索诺集团上涨1%至4%。特斯拉和蔚来下跌约2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f346fee60459b75b81de3dee1b7ff60\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks mixed in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘涨跌互现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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#7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks mixed in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘涨跌互现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-10 22:48</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>EV stocks mixed in morning trading.Lucid,Faraday Future,Nio,Li Auto&nbsp;and&nbsp;Sono Group&nbsp;climbed between 1% and 4%.Tesla&nbsp;and&nbsp;NIO&nbsp;fell&nbsp;about&nbsp;2%.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股早盘涨跌互现。Lucid、法拉第未来、蔚来、理想汽车和索诺集团上涨1%至4%。特斯拉和蔚来下跌约2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f346fee60459b75b81de3dee1b7ff60\" tg-width=\"412\" tg-height=\"723\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc","XPEV":"小鹏汽车","SEV":"Aptera Motors","FSR":"菲斯克","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","LI":"理想汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151890002","content_text":"EV stocks mixed in morning trading.Lucid,Faraday Future,Nio,Li Auto and Sono Group climbed between 1% and 4%.Tesla and NIO fell about 2%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIDE":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"NKLA":0.9,"LCID":0.9,"FSR":0.9,"SEV":0.9,"GOEV":0.9,"FFIE":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"RIVN":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":602036764,"gmtCreate":1638937877872,"gmtModify":1638937878177,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089499026613770","authorIdStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes agreed on more growth better.","listText":"Yes agreed on more growth better.","text":"Yes agreed on more growth better.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/602036764","repostId":"1105817084","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1105817084","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638933976,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105817084?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 11:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: What Happens When The Cash Runs Out?<blockquote>苹果股票：现金用完会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105817084","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple is about to run out of cash. This statement may sound lucrac is to most Apple stock  investors, since the Cupertino company has been a cash-generating machine in the past many years. But even the management team knows this to be true.Today, the Apple Maven talks about what has been happening to the iPhone maker’s once giant pile of cash, and what the declining balances may mean for shareholders.To be fair, “running out of cash” in this context does not mean that Apple’s checking accounts a","content":"<p>Apple is about to run out of cash. This statement may sound lucrac&nbsp;is to most Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;investors, since the Cupertino company has been a cash-generating machine in the past many years. But even the management team&nbsp;knows&nbsp;this to be true.</p><p><blockquote>苹果即将耗尽现金。对于大多数苹果股票来说，这种说法听起来可能是lucrac（<b>AAPL</b>）投资者，因为库比蒂诺公司在过去多年里一直是一台现金产生机。但即使是管理团队也知道这是真的。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven talks about what has been happening to the iPhone maker’s once giant pile of cash, and what the declining balances may mean for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家谈论了这家iPhone制造商曾经庞大的现金储备发生了什么，以及余额下降对股东可能意味着什么。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple heading to net cash neutral</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果走向净现金中性</b></blockquote></p><p> To be fair, “running out of cash” in this context does not mean that Apple’s checking accounts at the bank will dry out. It simply means that the company’s debt balances will roughly offset its cash position — i.e. Apple will become net cash neutral.</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，在这种情况下“现金耗尽”并不意味着苹果在银行的支票账户将会枯竭。这仅仅意味着该公司的债务余额将大致抵消其现金状况，即苹果将成为净现金中性。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows the evolution of Apple’s gross cash (blue bars) and net cash (orange bars) balances since 2011. Ten years ago was when then-CEO Steve Jobs stepped down and turned the control of the company over to then-COO Tim Cook.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了自2011年以来苹果总现金（蓝色条）和净现金（橙色条）余额的演变。十年前，时任首席执行官史蒂夫·乔布斯卸任，将公司控制权移交给时任首席运营官蒂姆·库克。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/435c5199979bc64d49899feed29d15fb\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"723\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2:Apple's cash position, fiscal 2012-2021.data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果2012-2021财年的现金状况。数据来自Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Starting in 2012, Apple began issuing debt for the first time in its history. By 2017, the company boasted the largest gross and net-of-debt cash balances that it had ever seen in its books. But since then, both numbers have been dwindling. This year’s $72 billion in net cash is less than half the amount of about four years ago.</p><p><blockquote>从2012年开始，苹果历史上首次开始发债。到2017年，该公司拥有其账簿中有史以来最大的总现金余额和债务净额现金余额。但从那以后，这两个数字都在减少。今年720亿美元的净现金还不到大约四年前的一半。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happens when cash runs out?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金用完会怎么样？</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows that, prior to Tim Cook as CEO, Apple was very timid at deploying its cash reserves. While capex and dividend payments increased quickly (large M&amp;A has never been a thing for Apple), buybacks skyrocketed. Apple has spent more than three times as much in share repurchases since 2018 than it did in capex and dividends combined.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，在蒂姆·库克担任首席执行官之前，苹果在部署现金储备方面非常谨慎。虽然资本支出和股息支付迅速增加（大型并购对苹果来说从来都不是一件事），但回购却飙升。自2018年以来，苹果在股票回购上的支出是资本支出和股息总和的三倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0ecee1dedf8551b616732dc7180c574\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"694\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3:Apple's cash deployment by major category.data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：苹果按主要类别划分的现金部署。数据来自Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As Apple’s cash balance continues to dip, it is reasonable to expect the pace of share retirement to decline as well. This is true not only because of a leaner balance sheet, but because AAPL stock trades at a much richer price today — thus, it costs Apple more to buy back each share of its own equity.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果的现金余额持续下降，有理由预计股票退出的速度也会下降。这不仅是因为资产负债表更加精简，还因为苹果公司股票如今的交易价格要高得多——因此，苹果回购每股自己股权的成本更高。</blockquote></p><p> Why is this relevant for investors? Over the past decade, Apple’s shares outstanding have declined by 10 billion units to 16.7 billion. Share count is the denominator in EPS (earnings per share) and EPS is the denominator in price-to-earnings. Therefore, buybacks alone have probably been responsible for a good chunk of Apple stock’s climb in the past several years.</p><p><blockquote>为什么这与投资者相关？过去十年，苹果的流通股减少了100亿股，至167亿股。股票数量是EPS（每股收益）的分母，EPS是市盈率的分母。因此，仅回购就可能是苹果股价过去几年上涨的很大一部分原因。</blockquote></p><p> At the current stock price of $165 apiece, Apple can afford to retire around 435 million more shares with its current net cash balance, or barely 3% of the float. After that point, the Cupertino company might need to scale back on repurchases or borrow in order to keep buying its stock.</p><p><blockquote>按照目前每股165美元的股价，苹果可以以其目前的净现金余额再出售约4.35亿股股票，仅占流通股的3%。此后，库比蒂诺公司可能需要缩减回购或借贷规模，以继续购买其股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Should investors worry?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者应该担心吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> I think that Apple stock could suffer, at least from deteriorated investor sentiment, if or once it begins to slow down the pace of its share buyback efforts. However, I also believe that this is only one aspect of the investment thesis that people should consider.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，如果或一旦苹果开始放慢股票回购步伐，其股票可能会受到影响，至少是投资者情绪恶化。然而，我也认为，这只是人们应该考虑的投资论文的一个方面。</blockquote></p><p> I remain optimistic about Apple stock from a business fundamentals perspective. The Cupertino company seems to have found the sweet spot in demand for its products and services, which I believe bodes very well for AAPL in the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>从商业基本面的角度来看，我对苹果股票保持乐观。这家库比蒂诺公司似乎已经找到了对其产品和服务需求的最佳点，我相信这在可预见的未来对苹果公司来说是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: What Happens When The Cash Runs Out?<blockquote>苹果股票：现金用完会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: What Happens When The Cash Runs Out?<blockquote>苹果股票：现金用完会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-08 11:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple is about to run out of cash. This statement may sound lucrac&nbsp;is to most Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;investors, since the Cupertino company has been a cash-generating machine in the past many years. But even the management team&nbsp;knows&nbsp;this to be true.</p><p><blockquote>苹果即将耗尽现金。对于大多数苹果股票来说，这种说法听起来可能是lucrac（<b>AAPL</b>）投资者，因为库比蒂诺公司在过去多年里一直是一台现金产生机。但即使是管理团队也知道这是真的。</blockquote></p><p> Today, the Apple Maven talks about what has been happening to the iPhone maker’s once giant pile of cash, and what the declining balances may mean for shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今天，这位苹果专家谈论了这家iPhone制造商曾经庞大的现金储备发生了什么，以及余额下降对股东可能意味着什么。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple heading to net cash neutral</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果走向净现金中性</b></blockquote></p><p> To be fair, “running out of cash” in this context does not mean that Apple’s checking accounts at the bank will dry out. It simply means that the company’s debt balances will roughly offset its cash position — i.e. Apple will become net cash neutral.</p><p><blockquote>公平地说，在这种情况下“现金耗尽”并不意味着苹果在银行的支票账户将会枯竭。这仅仅意味着该公司的债务余额将大致抵消其现金状况，即苹果将成为净现金中性。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows the evolution of Apple’s gross cash (blue bars) and net cash (orange bars) balances since 2011. Ten years ago was when then-CEO Steve Jobs stepped down and turned the control of the company over to then-COO Tim Cook.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了自2011年以来苹果总现金（蓝色条）和净现金（橙色条）余额的演变。十年前，时任首席执行官史蒂夫·乔布斯卸任，将公司控制权移交给时任首席运营官蒂姆·库克。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/435c5199979bc64d49899feed29d15fb\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"723\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2:Apple's cash position, fiscal 2012-2021.data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果2012-2021财年的现金状况。数据来自Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Starting in 2012, Apple began issuing debt for the first time in its history. By 2017, the company boasted the largest gross and net-of-debt cash balances that it had ever seen in its books. But since then, both numbers have been dwindling. This year’s $72 billion in net cash is less than half the amount of about four years ago.</p><p><blockquote>从2012年开始，苹果历史上首次开始发债。到2017年，该公司拥有其账簿中有史以来最大的总现金余额和债务净额现金余额。但从那以后，这两个数字都在减少。今年720亿美元的净现金还不到大约四年前的一半。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What happens when cash runs out?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金用完会怎么样？</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below shows that, prior to Tim Cook as CEO, Apple was very timid at deploying its cash reserves. While capex and dividend payments increased quickly (large M&amp;A has never been a thing for Apple), buybacks skyrocketed. Apple has spent more than three times as much in share repurchases since 2018 than it did in capex and dividends combined.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示，在蒂姆·库克担任首席执行官之前，苹果在部署现金储备方面非常谨慎。虽然资本支出和股息支付迅速增加（大型并购对苹果来说从来都不是一件事），但回购却飙升。自2018年以来，苹果在股票回购上的支出是资本支出和股息总和的三倍多。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0ecee1dedf8551b616732dc7180c574\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"694\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3:Apple's cash deployment by major category.data from Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：苹果按主要类别划分的现金部署。数据来自Seeking Alpha</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As Apple’s cash balance continues to dip, it is reasonable to expect the pace of share retirement to decline as well. This is true not only because of a leaner balance sheet, but because AAPL stock trades at a much richer price today — thus, it costs Apple more to buy back each share of its own equity.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果的现金余额持续下降，有理由预计股票退出的速度也会下降。这不仅是因为资产负债表更加精简，还因为苹果公司股票如今的交易价格要高得多——因此，苹果回购每股自己股权的成本更高。</blockquote></p><p> Why is this relevant for investors? Over the past decade, Apple’s shares outstanding have declined by 10 billion units to 16.7 billion. Share count is the denominator in EPS (earnings per share) and EPS is the denominator in price-to-earnings. Therefore, buybacks alone have probably been responsible for a good chunk of Apple stock’s climb in the past several years.</p><p><blockquote>为什么这与投资者相关？过去十年，苹果的流通股减少了100亿股，至167亿股。股票数量是EPS（每股收益）的分母，EPS是市盈率的分母。因此，仅回购就可能是苹果股价过去几年上涨的很大一部分原因。</blockquote></p><p> At the current stock price of $165 apiece, Apple can afford to retire around 435 million more shares with its current net cash balance, or barely 3% of the float. After that point, the Cupertino company might need to scale back on repurchases or borrow in order to keep buying its stock.</p><p><blockquote>按照目前每股165美元的股价，苹果可以以其目前的净现金余额再出售约4.35亿股股票，仅占流通股的3%。此后，库比蒂诺公司可能需要缩减回购或借贷规模，以继续购买其股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Should investors worry?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者应该担心吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> I think that Apple stock could suffer, at least from deteriorated investor sentiment, if or once it begins to slow down the pace of its share buyback efforts. However, I also believe that this is only one aspect of the investment thesis that people should consider.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，如果或一旦苹果开始放慢股票回购步伐，其股票可能会受到影响，至少是投资者情绪恶化。然而，我也认为，这只是人们应该考虑的投资论文的一个方面。</blockquote></p><p> I remain optimistic about Apple stock from a business fundamentals perspective. The Cupertino company seems to have found the sweet spot in demand for its products and services, which I believe bodes very well for AAPL in the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>从商业基本面的角度来看，我对苹果股票保持乐观。这家库比蒂诺公司似乎已经找到了对其产品和服务需求的最佳点，我相信这在可预见的未来对苹果公司来说是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-what-happens-when-the-cash-runs-out\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/apple-stock-what-happens-when-the-cash-runs-out","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105817084","content_text":"Apple is about to run out of cash. This statement may sound lucrac is to most Apple stock (AAPL) investors, since the Cupertino company has been a cash-generating machine in the past many years. But even the management team knows this to be true.\nToday, the Apple Maven talks about what has been happening to the iPhone maker’s once giant pile of cash, and what the declining balances may mean for shareholders.\nApple heading to net cash neutral\nTo be fair, “running out of cash” in this context does not mean that Apple’s checking accounts at the bank will dry out. It simply means that the company’s debt balances will roughly offset its cash position — i.e. Apple will become net cash neutral.\nThe chart below shows the evolution of Apple’s gross cash (blue bars) and net cash (orange bars) balances since 2011. Ten years ago was when then-CEO Steve Jobs stepped down and turned the control of the company over to then-COO Tim Cook.\nFigure 2:Apple's cash position, fiscal 2012-2021.data from Seeking Alpha\nStarting in 2012, Apple began issuing debt for the first time in its history. By 2017, the company boasted the largest gross and net-of-debt cash balances that it had ever seen in its books. But since then, both numbers have been dwindling. This year’s $72 billion in net cash is less than half the amount of about four years ago.\nWhat happens when cash runs out?\nThe chart below shows that, prior to Tim Cook as CEO, Apple was very timid at deploying its cash reserves. While capex and dividend payments increased quickly (large M&A has never been a thing for Apple), buybacks skyrocketed. Apple has spent more than three times as much in share repurchases since 2018 than it did in capex and dividends combined.\nFigure 3:Apple's cash deployment by major category.data from Seeking Alpha\nAs Apple’s cash balance continues to dip, it is reasonable to expect the pace of share retirement to decline as well. This is true not only because of a leaner balance sheet, but because AAPL stock trades at a much richer price today — thus, it costs Apple more to buy back each share of its own equity.\nWhy is this relevant for investors? Over the past decade, Apple’s shares outstanding have declined by 10 billion units to 16.7 billion. Share count is the denominator in EPS (earnings per share) and EPS is the denominator in price-to-earnings. Therefore, buybacks alone have probably been responsible for a good chunk of Apple stock’s climb in the past several years.\nAt the current stock price of $165 apiece, Apple can afford to retire around 435 million more shares with its current net cash balance, or barely 3% of the float. After that point, the Cupertino company might need to scale back on repurchases or borrow in order to keep buying its stock.\nShould investors worry?\nI think that Apple stock could suffer, at least from deteriorated investor sentiment, if or once it begins to slow down the pace of its share buyback efforts. However, I also believe that this is only one aspect of the investment thesis that people should consider.\nI remain optimistic about Apple stock from a business fundamentals perspective. The Cupertino company seems to have found the sweet spot in demand for its products and services, which I believe bodes very well for AAPL in the foreseeable future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606255991,"gmtCreate":1638888152102,"gmtModify":1638888163522,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089499026613770","authorIdStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606255991","repostId":"1104830433","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608554749,"gmtCreate":1638764616478,"gmtModify":1638764628732,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089499026613770","authorIdStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wa","listText":"Wa","text":"Wa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608554749","repostId":"1160733386","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1113,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608024763,"gmtCreate":1638583993499,"gmtModify":1638583993677,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089499026613770","authorIdStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So many.","listText":"So many.","text":"So many.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608024763","repostId":"1174181873","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1174181873","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638578178,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174181873?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-04 08:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：数字银行和云基础设施引领IPO周4</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174181873","media":"renaissancecap...","summary":"The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billi","content":"<p>The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>IPO市场预计将在未来一周回暖，预计将有四起IPO筹集37亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett-backed&nbsp;<b>Nu Holdings</b>(NU) plans to raise $2.5 billion at a $41.1 billion market cap. Operating as Nubank, this Brazilian online-only bank was formed in 2013 to launch a no-fees credit card offering with a mobile-first customer experience, but has since expanded to offer various other financial products. Nu has grown rapidly since its inception, with a current base of nearly 50 million customers, though revenue per customer has been falling as its base grows.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特支持<b>Nu控股</b>(NU)计划以411亿美元的市值筹集25亿美元。这家巴西纯在线银行成立于2013年，名为Nubank，旨在推出具有移动优先客户体验的免费信用卡产品，但此后已扩展到提供各种其他金融产品。Nu自成立以来发展迅速，目前拥有近5000万客户群，尽管随着客户群的增长，每个客户的收入一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud infrastructure platform&nbsp;<b>HashiCorp</b>(HCP) plans to raise $1.1 billion at a $14.0 billion market cap. This VC-backed company provides a suite of solutions that standardize and automate the provisioning, securing, connecting, and running of cloud infrastructure at scale. While it has demonstrated rapid growth and a sticky customer base, HashiCorp is highly unprofitable due to S&amp;M spend.</p><p><blockquote>云基础设施平台<b>哈希公司</b>(HCP)计划以140亿美元的市值筹集11亿美元。这家风险投资支持的公司提供了一套解决方案，可标准化和自动化大规模云基础设施的配置、保护、连接和运行。尽管HashiCorp表现出快速增长和粘性客户群，但由于S&amp;M支出，HashiCorp非常无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Cannabis finance REIT&nbsp;<b>Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance</b>(REFI) plans to raise $106 million at a $296 million market cap. This newly-formed REIT is focused on originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. Its current portfolio consists of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.</p><p><blockquote>大麻金融房地产投资信托基金<b>芝加哥大西洋房地产金融</b>(REFI)计划以2.96亿美元的市值筹集1.06亿美元。这个新成立的房地产投资信托基金专注于发起、构建和投资由商业房地产担保的第一抵押贷款和另类结构性融资。其目前的投资组合包括向大麻行业国家许可运营商提供的高级贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian gold exploration company&nbsp;<b>Austin Gold</b>(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. This Canadian gold exploration company currently has interests in four properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大黄金勘探公司<b>奥斯汀·戈尔德</b>(AUST)计划以6400万美元的市值筹集1500万美元。这家加拿大黄金勘探公司目前拥有位于内华达州的四处地产的权益，目前只有一处地产被认为是重要的。迄今为止，奥斯汀黄金尚未产生任何营业收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1619493174116","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：数字银行和云基础设施引领IPO周4</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: Digital banking and cloud infrastructure lead a 4 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：数字银行和云基础设施引领IPO周4</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">renaissancecap...</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-04 08:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billion.</p><p><blockquote>IPO市场预计将在未来一周回暖，预计将有四起IPO筹集37亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett-backed&nbsp;<b>Nu Holdings</b>(NU) plans to raise $2.5 billion at a $41.1 billion market cap. Operating as Nubank, this Brazilian online-only bank was formed in 2013 to launch a no-fees credit card offering with a mobile-first customer experience, but has since expanded to offer various other financial products. Nu has grown rapidly since its inception, with a current base of nearly 50 million customers, though revenue per customer has been falling as its base grows.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特支持<b>Nu控股</b>(NU)计划以411亿美元的市值筹集25亿美元。这家巴西纯在线银行成立于2013年，名为Nubank，旨在推出具有移动优先客户体验的免费信用卡产品，但此后已扩展到提供各种其他金融产品。Nu自成立以来发展迅速，目前拥有近5000万客户群，尽管随着客户群的增长，每个客户的收入一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud infrastructure platform&nbsp;<b>HashiCorp</b>(HCP) plans to raise $1.1 billion at a $14.0 billion market cap. This VC-backed company provides a suite of solutions that standardize and automate the provisioning, securing, connecting, and running of cloud infrastructure at scale. While it has demonstrated rapid growth and a sticky customer base, HashiCorp is highly unprofitable due to S&amp;M spend.</p><p><blockquote>云基础设施平台<b>哈希公司</b>(HCP)计划以140亿美元的市值筹集11亿美元。这家风险投资支持的公司提供了一套解决方案，可标准化和自动化大规模云基础设施的配置、保护、连接和运行。尽管HashiCorp表现出快速增长和粘性客户群，但由于S&amp;M支出，HashiCorp非常无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Cannabis finance REIT&nbsp;<b>Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance</b>(REFI) plans to raise $106 million at a $296 million market cap. This newly-formed REIT is focused on originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. Its current portfolio consists of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.</p><p><blockquote>大麻金融房地产投资信托基金<b>芝加哥大西洋房地产金融</b>(REFI)计划以2.96亿美元的市值筹集1.06亿美元。这个新成立的房地产投资信托基金专注于发起、构建和投资由商业房地产担保的第一抵押贷款和另类结构性融资。其目前的投资组合包括向大麻行业国家许可运营商提供的高级贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian gold exploration company&nbsp;<b>Austin Gold</b>(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. This Canadian gold exploration company currently has interests in four properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大黄金勘探公司<b>奥斯汀·戈尔德</b>(AUST)计划以6400万美元的市值筹集1500万美元。这家加拿大黄金勘探公司目前拥有位于内华达州的四处地产的权益，目前只有一处地产被认为是重要的。迄今为止，奥斯汀黄金尚未产生任何营业收入。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89235/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-banking-and-cloud-infrastructure-lead-a-4-IPO-wee\">renaissancecap...</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"REFI":"Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc.","HCP":"HashiCorp, Inc.","NU":"Nu Holdings Ltd."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/89235/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-banking-and-cloud-infrastructure-lead-a-4-IPO-wee","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174181873","content_text":"The IPO market is expected to pick up in the week ahead with four IPOs scheduled to raise $3.7 billion.\nBuffett-backed Nu Holdings(NU) plans to raise $2.5 billion at a $41.1 billion market cap. Operating as Nubank, this Brazilian online-only bank was formed in 2013 to launch a no-fees credit card offering with a mobile-first customer experience, but has since expanded to offer various other financial products. Nu has grown rapidly since its inception, with a current base of nearly 50 million customers, though revenue per customer has been falling as its base grows.\nCloud infrastructure platform HashiCorp(HCP) plans to raise $1.1 billion at a $14.0 billion market cap. This VC-backed company provides a suite of solutions that standardize and automate the provisioning, securing, connecting, and running of cloud infrastructure at scale. While it has demonstrated rapid growth and a sticky customer base, HashiCorp is highly unprofitable due to S&M spend.\nCannabis finance REIT Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance(REFI) plans to raise $106 million at a $296 million market cap. This newly-formed REIT is focused on originating, structuring, and investing in first mortgage loans and alternative structured financings secured by commercial real estate properties. Its current portfolio consists of senior loans to state-licensed operators in the cannabis industry.\nCanadian gold exploration company Austin Gold(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. This Canadian gold exploration company currently has interests in four properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NU":0.9,"REFI":0.9,"HCP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603593211,"gmtCreate":1638422264222,"gmtModify":1638422264658,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089499026613770","authorIdStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Safe. Phew","listText":"Safe. Phew","text":"Safe. Phew","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603593211","repostId":"1172896447","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603191316,"gmtCreate":1638371362471,"gmtModify":1638371362930,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089499026613770","authorIdStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sweet","listText":"Sweet","text":"Sweet","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603191316","repostId":"1143092770","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1143092770","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638370804,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143092770?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-01 23:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple shares rose nearly 2% to a new high<blockquote>苹果股价上涨近2%，创新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143092770","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Apple shares rose nearly 2% to a new high in morning trading.\nNeedham analyst Laura Martin said inve","content":"<p>Apple shares rose nearly 2% to a new high&nbsp;in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在早盘交易中上涨近2%，创下新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Needham</b>&nbsp;analyst Laura Martin said investors turned to Apple due to its prodigious cash flow capable of weathering the storm, not going bankrupt, not having financial distress.</p><p><blockquote><b>李约瑟</b>分析师Laura Martin表示，投资者转向苹果是因为其庞大的现金流能够渡过难关，不会破产，也不会陷入财务困境。</blockquote></p><p> Martin said there are indications that Apple’s current products, especially its iPhone Pro models, are selling well, potentially leading to a big December quarter for the company.</p><p><blockquote>Martin表示，有迹象表明，苹果目前的产品，尤其是iPhone Pro机型，销量很好，可能会导致该公司12月份季度业绩大增。</blockquote></p><p> Tablets, especially the high-end iPhones, all of which say they’re going to have high margins and high revenue for the fourth quarter of this year, Martin added.</p><p><blockquote>马丁补充说，平板电脑，尤其是高端iPhone，都表示今年第四季度将拥有高利润率和高收入。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edc1b3fcbf75cefc8acb5fa15512530b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple shares rose nearly 2% to a new high<blockquote>苹果股价上涨近2%，创新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple shares rose nearly 2% to a new high<blockquote>苹果股价上涨近2%，创新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-01 23:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple shares rose nearly 2% to a new high&nbsp;in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价在早盘交易中上涨近2%，创下新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Needham</b>&nbsp;analyst Laura Martin said investors turned to Apple due to its prodigious cash flow capable of weathering the storm, not going bankrupt, not having financial distress.</p><p><blockquote><b>李约瑟</b>分析师Laura Martin表示，投资者转向苹果是因为其庞大的现金流能够渡过难关，不会破产，也不会陷入财务困境。</blockquote></p><p> Martin said there are indications that Apple’s current products, especially its iPhone Pro models, are selling well, potentially leading to a big December quarter for the company.</p><p><blockquote>Martin表示，有迹象表明，苹果目前的产品，尤其是iPhone Pro机型，销量很好，可能会导致该公司12月份季度业绩大增。</blockquote></p><p> Tablets, especially the high-end iPhones, all of which say they’re going to have high margins and high revenue for the fourth quarter of this year, Martin added.</p><p><blockquote>马丁补充说，平板电脑，尤其是高端iPhone，都表示今年第四季度将拥有高利润率和高收入。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edc1b3fcbf75cefc8acb5fa15512530b\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143092770","content_text":"Apple shares rose nearly 2% to a new high in morning trading.\nNeedham analyst Laura Martin said investors turned to Apple due to its prodigious cash flow capable of weathering the storm, not going bankrupt, not having financial distress.\nMartin said there are indications that Apple’s current products, especially its iPhone Pro models, are selling well, potentially leading to a big December quarter for the company.\nTablets, especially the high-end iPhones, all of which say they’re going to have high margins and high revenue for the fourth quarter of this year, Martin added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":804,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603346006,"gmtCreate":1638369825213,"gmtModify":1638369825774,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089499026613770","authorIdStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603346006","repostId":"1120605182","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1120605182","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1638365714,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120605182?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-01 21:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Wednesday<blockquote>周三10个最大价格目标变化</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120605182","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Morgan Stanley boosted Zscaler, Inc. price target from $275 to $330. Zscaler shares rose 7.1% to $37","content":"<p><ul>  <li>Morgan Stanley boosted&nbsp;<b>Zscaler, Inc.</b>&nbsp;price target from $275 to $330. Zscaler shares rose 7.1% to $371.50 in pre-market trading.</li>  <li>Citigroup boosted&nbsp;<b>Applied Materials, Inc.</b>&nbsp;price target from $160 to $175. Applied Materials shares rose 1.9% to $150.00 in pre-market trading.</li>  <li>Goldman Sachs cut the price target on&nbsp;<b>TG Therapeutics, Inc.</b>&nbsp;from $26 to $13. TG Therapeutics shares fell 5.3% to $14.40 in pre-market trading.</li>  <li>Wells Fargo boosted the price target for&nbsp;<b>Ambarella, Inc.</b>&nbsp;from $115 to $185. Ambarella shares jumped 16.4% to $208.90 in pre-market trading.</li>  <li>Barclays cut&nbsp;<b>Sigilon Therapeutics, Inc.</b>&nbsp;price target from $16 to $7. Sigilon Therapeutics shares fell 0.3% to close at $3.76 on Tuesday.</li>  <li>Credit Suisse lifted the price target on&nbsp;<b>GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.</b>&nbsp;from $75 to $80. GLOBALFOUNDRIES shares rose 3.3% to $71.50 in pre-market trading.</li>  <li>DA Davidson raised&nbsp;<b>Helen of Troy Limited</b>&nbsp;price target from $254 to $266. Helen of Troy shares fell 2.3% to close at $240.50 on Tuesday.</li>  <li>Jefferies lifted&nbsp;<b>ImmunoGen, Inc.</b>&nbsp;price target from $7 to $12. ImmunoGen shares fell 3.6% to $5.95 pre-market trading.</li>  <li>Susquehanna raised the price target on&nbsp;<b>NetApp, Inc.</b>&nbsp;from $100 to $105. NetApp shares rose 1.4% to $90.11 in pre-market trading.</li>  <li>Truist Securities boosted the price target for&nbsp;<b>Salesforce.com, inc.</b>&nbsp;from $315 to $330. salesforce.com shares fell 6.5% to $266.40 in pre-market trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利提振<b>Zscaler公司。</b>目标价为275美元至330美元。Zscaler股价在盘前交易中上涨7.1%至371.50美元。</li><li>花旗集团提振<b>应用材料公司。</b>目标价为160美元至175美元。应用材料公司股价在盘前交易中上涨1.9%，至150.00美元。</li><li>高盛下调目标价<b>TG治疗公司。</b>从26美元到13美元。TG Therapeutics股价在盘前交易中下跌5.3%至14.40美元。</li><li>富国银行提高了目标价<b>安巴雷拉公司。</b>从115美元到185美元。Ambarella股价在盘前交易中上涨16.4%，至208.90美元。</li><li>巴克莱削减<b>西吉隆治疗公司。</b>目标价从16美元到7美元。Sigilon Therapeutics股价周二下跌0.3%，收于3.76美元。</li><li>瑞士信贷上调目标价<b>格罗方德公司。</b>从75美元到80美元。格芯股价在盘前交易中上涨3.3%，至71.50美元。</li><li>戴维森<b>特洛伊海伦有限公司</b>目标价从254美元到266美元。周二，Helen of Troy股价下跌2.3%，收于240.50美元。</li><li>杰富瑞解除<b>免疫原公司。</b>目标价为7美元至12美元。ImmunoGen股价在盘前交易中下跌3.6%至5.95美元。</li><li>萨斯奎哈纳上调目标价<b>NetApp公司。</b>从100美元到105美元。NetApp股价在盘前交易中上涨1.4%，至90.11美元。</li><li>Truist Securities上调目标价<b>Salesforce.com公司。</b>从315美元到330美元。salesforce.com股价在盘前交易中下跌6.5%至266.40美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Wednesday<blockquote>周三10个最大价格目标变化</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n10 Biggest Price Target Changes For Wednesday<blockquote>周三10个最大价格目标变化</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-01 21:35</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul>  <li>Morgan Stanley boosted&nbsp;<b>Zscaler, Inc.</b>&nbsp;price target from $275 to $330. Zscaler shares rose 7.1% to $371.50 in pre-market trading.</li>  <li>Citigroup boosted&nbsp;<b>Applied Materials, Inc.</b>&nbsp;price target from $160 to $175. Applied Materials shares rose 1.9% to $150.00 in pre-market trading.</li>  <li>Goldman Sachs cut the price target on&nbsp;<b>TG Therapeutics, Inc.</b>&nbsp;from $26 to $13. TG Therapeutics shares fell 5.3% to $14.40 in pre-market trading.</li>  <li>Wells Fargo boosted the price target for&nbsp;<b>Ambarella, Inc.</b>&nbsp;from $115 to $185. Ambarella shares jumped 16.4% to $208.90 in pre-market trading.</li>  <li>Barclays cut&nbsp;<b>Sigilon Therapeutics, Inc.</b>&nbsp;price target from $16 to $7. Sigilon Therapeutics shares fell 0.3% to close at $3.76 on Tuesday.</li>  <li>Credit Suisse lifted the price target on&nbsp;<b>GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.</b>&nbsp;from $75 to $80. GLOBALFOUNDRIES shares rose 3.3% to $71.50 in pre-market trading.</li>  <li>DA Davidson raised&nbsp;<b>Helen of Troy Limited</b>&nbsp;price target from $254 to $266. Helen of Troy shares fell 2.3% to close at $240.50 on Tuesday.</li>  <li>Jefferies lifted&nbsp;<b>ImmunoGen, Inc.</b>&nbsp;price target from $7 to $12. ImmunoGen shares fell 3.6% to $5.95 pre-market trading.</li>  <li>Susquehanna raised the price target on&nbsp;<b>NetApp, Inc.</b>&nbsp;from $100 to $105. NetApp shares rose 1.4% to $90.11 in pre-market trading.</li>  <li>Truist Securities boosted the price target for&nbsp;<b>Salesforce.com, inc.</b>&nbsp;from $315 to $330. salesforce.com shares fell 6.5% to $266.40 in pre-market trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利提振<b>Zscaler公司。</b>目标价为275美元至330美元。Zscaler股价在盘前交易中上涨7.1%至371.50美元。</li><li>花旗集团提振<b>应用材料公司。</b>目标价为160美元至175美元。应用材料公司股价在盘前交易中上涨1.9%，至150.00美元。</li><li>高盛下调目标价<b>TG治疗公司。</b>从26美元到13美元。TG Therapeutics股价在盘前交易中下跌5.3%至14.40美元。</li><li>富国银行提高了目标价<b>安巴雷拉公司。</b>从115美元到185美元。Ambarella股价在盘前交易中上涨16.4%，至208.90美元。</li><li>巴克莱削减<b>西吉隆治疗公司。</b>目标价从16美元到7美元。Sigilon Therapeutics股价周二下跌0.3%，收于3.76美元。</li><li>瑞士信贷上调目标价<b>格罗方德公司。</b>从75美元到80美元。格芯股价在盘前交易中上涨3.3%，至71.50美元。</li><li>戴维森<b>特洛伊海伦有限公司</b>目标价从254美元到266美元。周二，Helen of Troy股价下跌2.3%，收于240.50美元。</li><li>杰富瑞解除<b>免疫原公司。</b>目标价为7美元至12美元。ImmunoGen股价在盘前交易中下跌3.6%至5.95美元。</li><li>萨斯奎哈纳上调目标价<b>NetApp公司。</b>从100美元到105美元。NetApp股价在盘前交易中上涨1.4%，至90.11美元。</li><li>Truist Securities上调目标价<b>Salesforce.com公司。</b>从315美元到330美元。salesforce.com股价在盘前交易中下跌6.5%至266.40美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRM":"赛富时","SGTX":"Sigilon Therapeutics, Inc.","AMBA":"安霸","NTAP":"美国网存","ZS":"Zscaler Inc.","IMGN":"ImmunoGen","HELE":"海伦特洛伊家电","GFS":"GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc.","TGTX":"TG Therapeutics Inc.","AMAT":"应用材料"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120605182","content_text":"Morgan Stanley boosted Zscaler, Inc. price target from $275 to $330. Zscaler shares rose 7.1% to $371.50 in pre-market trading.\nCitigroup boosted Applied Materials, Inc. price target from $160 to $175. Applied Materials shares rose 1.9% to $150.00 in pre-market trading.\nGoldman Sachs cut the price target on TG Therapeutics, Inc. from $26 to $13. TG Therapeutics shares fell 5.3% to $14.40 in pre-market trading.\nWells Fargo boosted the price target for Ambarella, Inc. from $115 to $185. Ambarella shares jumped 16.4% to $208.90 in pre-market trading.\nBarclays cut Sigilon Therapeutics, Inc. price target from $16 to $7. Sigilon Therapeutics shares fell 0.3% to close at $3.76 on Tuesday.\nCredit Suisse lifted the price target on GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc. from $75 to $80. GLOBALFOUNDRIES shares rose 3.3% to $71.50 in pre-market trading.\nDA Davidson raised Helen of Troy Limited price target from $254 to $266. Helen of Troy shares fell 2.3% to close at $240.50 on Tuesday.\nJefferies lifted ImmunoGen, Inc. price target from $7 to $12. ImmunoGen shares fell 3.6% to $5.95 pre-market trading.\nSusquehanna raised the price target on NetApp, Inc. from $100 to $105. NetApp shares rose 1.4% to $90.11 in pre-market trading.\nTruist Securities boosted the price target for Salesforce.com, inc. from $315 to $330. salesforce.com shares fell 6.5% to $266.40 in pre-market trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMBA":0.9,"GFS":0.9,"IMGN":0.9,"HELE":0.9,"SGTX":0.9,"NTAP":0.9,"ZS":0.9,"AMAT":0.9,"CRM":0.9,"TGTX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603348255,"gmtCreate":1638369791950,"gmtModify":1638369792444,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089499026613770","authorIdStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha zoom?","listText":"Haha zoom?","text":"Haha zoom?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603348255","repostId":"2188568514","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609316269,"gmtCreate":1638238444604,"gmtModify":1638238444737,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089499026613770","authorIdStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls.","listText":"Like pls.","text":"Like pls.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609316269","repostId":"2187309181","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1273,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":175002969,"gmtCreate":1626997430551,"gmtModify":1633769027601,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment.","listText":"Like and comment.","text":"Like and comment.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175002969","repostId":"2153036156","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":867558465,"gmtCreate":1633303647176,"gmtModify":1633303647447,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Upup","listText":"Upup","text":"Upup","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867558465","repostId":"2172203962","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2172203962","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633284334,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2172203962?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 02:05","market":"other","language":"en","title":"What to know this week：September jobs report, PepsiCo and Levi earnings<blockquote>本周需要了解的内容：9月份就业报告、百事可乐和李维斯收益</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2172203962","media":"Yahoo Finance","summary":"The spotlight this week for Wall Street will be on labor market data, as investors await the release","content":"<p><div> The spotlight this week for Wall Street will be on labor market data, as investors await the release of the Labor Department's September jobs report on Friday. Several earnings results from major ...</p><p><blockquote><div>本周华尔街的焦点将是劳动力市场数据，投资者等待劳工部周五发布的9月份就业报告。主要公司的几项盈利结果...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-jobs-report-pepsi-co-and-levi-earnings-what-to-know-this-week-180534292.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-jobs-report-pepsi-co-and-levi-earnings-what-to-know-this-week-180534292.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"yahoofinance_au","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What to know this week：September jobs report, PepsiCo and Levi earnings<blockquote>本周需要了解的内容：9月份就业报告、百事可乐和李维斯收益</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat to know this week：September jobs report, PepsiCo and Levi earnings<blockquote>本周需要了解的内容：9月份就业报告、百事可乐和李维斯收益</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Yahoo Finance</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-04 02:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> The spotlight this week for Wall Street will be on labor market data, as investors await the release of the Labor Department's September jobs report on Friday. Several earnings results from major ...</p><p><blockquote><div>本周华尔街的焦点将是劳动力市场数据，投资者等待劳工部周五发布的9月份就业报告。主要公司的几项盈利结果...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-jobs-report-pepsi-co-and-levi-earnings-what-to-know-this-week-180534292.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-jobs-report-pepsi-co-and-levi-earnings-what-to-know-this-week-180534292.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-jobs-report-pepsi-co-and-levi-earnings-what-to-know-this-week-180534292.html\">Yahoo Finance</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","PEP":"百事可乐"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-jobs-report-pepsi-co-and-levi-earnings-what-to-know-this-week-180534292.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2172203962","content_text":"The spotlight this week for Wall Street will be on labor market data, as investors await the release of the Labor Department's September jobs report on Friday. Several earnings results from major consumer brands are also on tap, and OPEC+.\nAll eyes are focused on the meeting of OPEC+（ the group of oil producers）to be held on October 4.The group had been widely expected to keep current plans to raise overall production by 400,000 barrels a day each month in place.On last Thursday, Reuters reported that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, known as OPEC+, is weighing additional production increases, \"beyond its existing deal to boost production by 400,000 barrels per day,\" as prices for crude trade near year three-year highs.\nTraders are looking to see payroll gains accelerate in Septembe after a shockingly disappointing August jobs report, when just 235,000 jobs came back versus the more than 700,000 expected. Consensus economists anticipate that 475,000 payrolls returned in September, and that the unemployment rate fell to 5.1%, or the lowest since March 2020.\n\"There is more hope for the labor market. The next few months will be important and we could see greater labor market participation as fear of the virus abates,\" Bank of America U.S. economist Michelle Meyer wrote in a note on Friday.\nMeyer also flagged recent comments from Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard, who addressed some of the ongoing labor scarcities and issues in bringing individuals back into the workforce.\n\"The decline in labor force participation appears to reflect COVID-related constraints that have been prolonged by Delta rather than permanent structural changes in the economy,\" Brainard said in public remarks in Arlington, Va., last week.\nBut these virus-related risks still remain a point of concern for the labor market's recovery, and for the September jobs report in particular. And the U.S. economy has still lost a net total of over 5 million payrolls since March 2020, underscoring the deficit still left to recoup on employment.\n\"To the downside, we see risk of public payrolls contracting modestly in September as education payrolls could recede modestly due to school closures amid the Delta wave and negative payback from strong hiring over the summer,\" Meyer said. \"Consequently, we think private payrolls growth will be marginally stronger than non-farm payrolls growth. All told, the data flow suggests another soft month of employment activity but a slightly faster pace of job gains compared to August.\"\nImportantly, the September jobs report will be a key factor in informing the Federal Reserve's timing on formally announcing and beginning tapering of its pandemic-era asset purchase program. The central bank signaled last month that it believed the economy was on its way to being able to stand on its own without the extraordinary levels of monetary policy support seen over the course of the year and a half.\nAnd indeed, Fed officials have said the economy has already met the central bank's targeted threshold for inflation, and that only more progress on the labor market's recovery was needed to be enough to trigger the start of tapering.\n\"It wouldn't take a knockout, great, super strong employment report,\" Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell saidduring his latest post-FOMC meeting press conference in September. \"It would take a reasonably good employment report for me to feel like that test is met.\"\nConsumer names to report earnings\nA number of companies are set to report quarterly results throughout the week, offering a first look at how corporate profits have held up in the third-quarter before a bigger wave of firms report results in the coming weeks.\nThe names reporting this week will center on major consumer brands including PepsiCo (PEP), Constellation Brands (STZ) and Levi Strauss (LEVI). One of the key themes from these reports and earnings calls will be on commentary around inflation, labor and supply chain challenges, given rising prices and materials shortages already seen across various pockets of the economy.\nResults last week from companies including Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY), for instance, already served as a harbinger of the myriad supply-side issues facing the retail industry. The company posted an unexpected drop in same-store sales for its quarter ending in late August, whereas Wall Street had projected same-store sales growth. The drop came both as a result of consumer skittishness over shopping in-person during the Delta variant's spread, and as supply pressures weighed on growth.\nWhen asked during the company earnings call whether these challenges might abate over the balance of the year, Bed Bath & Beyond CEO Mark Tritton said the company was \"not expecting supply chain pressures to ease.\"\n\"We operated under unprecedented supply chain conditions that have continued to increasingly tighten global trade since last year,\" Tritton said.\nCompanies in other industries have highlighted similar concerns. Micron (MU), the biggest domestic memory chipmaker, said in a letter to customers that it was still experiencing cost increases for materials and services and did \"not expect that pressure to ease in the foreseeable future,\" according to a report from Bloomberg last week. And earlier in September, FedEx (FDX) posted a sharp miss on quarterly profits as supply chain pressures and rising labor costs pressured margins for the shipping giant.\nEconomic calendar\n\nMonday:Factory orders, August (1.0% expected, 0.4% in July); Durable goods orders, August final (1.8% in prior print); Durable goods orders, excluding transportation, August final (0.2% in prior print); Non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, August final (0.5% in prior print); Non-defense capital goods orders, excluding aircraft, August final (0.7% in prior print)\nTuesday:Trade balance, August (-$70.5 billion expected, -$70.1 billion in July); Markit U.S. services PMI, September final (54.4 expected, 54.4 in prior print); Markit U.S. composite PMI, September final (54.5 in prior print); ISM Services index, September (60.0 expected, 61.7 in August)\nWednesday:MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended October 1 (-1.1% during prior week); ADP Employment Change, September (450,000 expected, 374,000 in August)\nThursday:Challenger Job Cuts, year-over-year, September (-86.4% in August); Initial jobless claims, week ended October 2 (349,000 expected, 362,000 during prior week); Continuing claims, week ended September 25 (2.802 million during prior week); Consumer credit, August ($18.000 billion expected, $17.004 billion in July)\nFriday:Change in non-farm payrolls, September (488,000 expected, 235,000 in August); Unemployment rate, September (5.1% expected, 5.2% in August); Average hourly earnings, month-over-month, September (0.4% expected, 0.6% in August); Average hourly earnings, year-over-year, September (4.6% expected, 4.3% in August); Labor force participation rate, September (61.7% in August); Wholesale inventories, month-over-month, August final (1.2% expected, 1.2% in prior estimate)\n\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday:No notable reports scheduled for release\nTuesday:PepsiCo (PEP) before market open\nWednesday:Constellation Brands (STZ) before market open; Levi Strauss (LEVI) after market close\nThursday:Conagra Brands (CAG), Tilray (TLRY) before market open\nFriday:No notable reports scheduled for release","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"PEP":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827220817,"gmtCreate":1634481729513,"gmtModify":1634481729818,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"This is nice.","listText":"This is nice.","text":"This is nice.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827220817","repostId":"2175146556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877501898,"gmtCreate":1637939711542,"gmtModify":1637939711718,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877501898","repostId":"2186334897","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":405,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":822235304,"gmtCreate":1634133794334,"gmtModify":1634133794433,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment.","listText":"Like and comment.","text":"Like and comment.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822235304","repostId":"1182958686","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869283585,"gmtCreate":1632292854647,"gmtModify":1632801442535,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls.","listText":"Like pls.","text":"Like pls.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869283585","repostId":"2169639321","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":882288336,"gmtCreate":1631695812225,"gmtModify":1631891561172,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Oh no. Like pls","listText":"Oh no. Like pls","text":"Oh no. Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/882288336","repostId":"1103263635","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103263635","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631693868,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103263635?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-15 16:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Some hot chinese concept stocks slipped in premarket trading<blockquote>部分热点中概股盘前下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103263635","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Some hot chinese concept stocks slipped in premarket trading.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.COM,Baidu,Bilibili","content":"<p>Some hot chinese concept stocks slipped in premarket trading.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.COM,Baidu,Bilibili,Didi Global&nbsp;and&nbsp;KE Holdings&nbsp;fell between 1% and 2%.</p><p><blockquote>部分热门中概股盘前下跌。阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东、百度、哔哩哔哩、滴滴出行和贝壳控股跌幅在1%至2%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfea1b49ec8c6be31a92e7926eb863b6\" tg-width=\"424\" tg-height=\"426\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Some hot chinese concept stocks slipped in premarket trading<blockquote>部分热点中概股盘前下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSome hot chinese concept stocks slipped in premarket trading<blockquote>部分热点中概股盘前下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-15 16:17</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some hot chinese concept stocks slipped in premarket trading.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.COM,Baidu,Bilibili,Didi Global&nbsp;and&nbsp;KE Holdings&nbsp;fell between 1% and 2%.</p><p><blockquote>部分热门中概股盘前下跌。阿里巴巴、拼多多、京东、百度、哔哩哔哩、滴滴出行和贝壳控股跌幅在1%至2%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfea1b49ec8c6be31a92e7926eb863b6\" tg-width=\"424\" tg-height=\"426\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103263635","content_text":"Some hot chinese concept stocks slipped in premarket trading.Alibaba,Pinduoduo,JD.COM,Baidu,Bilibili,Didi Global and KE Holdings fell between 1% and 2%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":829257790,"gmtCreate":1633519778271,"gmtModify":1633519778575,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"&nbsp;Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"&nbsp;Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829257790","repostId":"1140605265","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140605265","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633514236,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140605265?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 17:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The next financial crisis is fast approaching<blockquote>下一次金融危机即将来临</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140605265","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Central banks need to prepare because global stock markets and real estate are overvalued, while lev","content":"<p>  <b>Central banks need to prepare because global stock markets and real estate are overvalued, while leverage is near record levels for households, corporations, banks and governments.</b>  NEW YORK (Project Syndicate)— Since early 2020, central banks across the advanced economies have had to choose between pursuing financial stability, low (typically 2%) inflation, or real economic activity. Without exception, they have opted in favor of financial stability, followed by real economic activity, with inflation last.</p><p><blockquote><b>各国央行需要做好准备，因为全球股市和房地产被高估，而家庭、企业、银行和政府的杠杆率接近创纪录水平。</b>纽约（Project Syndicate）——自2020年初以来，发达经济体的央行不得不在追求金融稳定、低通胀（通常为2%）或实体经济活动之间做出选择。无一例外，他们都选择了金融稳定，其次是实体经济活动，最后是通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the only advanced-economy central bank to raise interest rates since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic has been Norway’s Norges Bank, which&nbsp;lifted&nbsp;its policy rate from zero to 0.25% on Sept. 24. While it has&nbsp;hinted&nbsp;that an additional rate increase is likely in December, and that its policy rate could reach 1.7% toward the end of 2024, that is merely more evidence of monetary policy makers’ extreme reluctance to implement the kind of rate increases that are required to achieve a 2% inflation target consistently.</p><p><blockquote>因此，自COVID-19大流行开始以来唯一加息的发达经济体央行是挪威央行，该央行于9月24日将政策利率从零上调至0.25%。尽管它暗示可能会在12月进一步加息，并且其政策利率可能在2024年底达到1.7%，但这只是更多证据表明货币政策制定者极其不愿意实施所需的加息持续实现2%的通胀目标。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.</b>  Central banks’ overwhelming reluctance to pursue interest-rate and balance-sheet policies compatible with their inflation targets should come as no surprise. In the years between the start of the Great Moderation in the mid-1980s and the 2007-08 financial crisis, advanced-economy central banks failed to give sufficient weight to financial stability. A prime example was the Bank of England’s loss of all supervisory and regulatory powers when it was granted operational independence in 1997.</p><p><blockquote><b>今天的风险资产估值完全脱离现实。</b>各国央行极不愿意推行与其通胀目标相适应的利率和资产负债表政策，这并不奇怪。在20世纪80年代中期大缓和开始到2007-08年金融危机之间的几年里，发达经济体的央行未能对金融稳定给予足够的重视。一个典型的例子是英格兰银行在1997年获得运营独立性时失去了所有监督和监管权力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Prioritize financial stability over inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将金融稳定置于通胀之上</b></blockquote></p><p> The result was a financial disaster and a severe cyclical downturn. Confirming the logic of “once bitten, twice shy,” central banks then responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by pursuing unprecedentedly aggressive policies to ensure financial stability. But they also went far beyond what was required, pulling out all the policy stops to support real economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>结果是一场金融灾难和严重的周期性衰退。各国央行随后通过采取前所未有的激进政策来确保金融稳定，从而证实了“一劳永逸”的逻辑。但他们也远远超出了要求，用尽了所有政策来支持实体经济活动。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks were right to prioritize financial stability over price stability, considering that financial stability itself is a prerequisite for sustainable price stability (and for some central banks’ other target, full employment). The economic and social cost of a financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target. Obviously, very high inflation rates must be avoided, because they, too, can become a source of financial instability; but if preventing a financial calamity requires a few years of high single-digit inflation, the price is well worth it.</p><p><blockquote>各国央行将金融稳定置于价格稳定之上是正确的，因为金融稳定本身是可持续价格稳定的先决条件（对于一些央行的另一个目标，即充分就业）。金融危机的经济和社会成本，尤其是在私人和公共杠杆率如此之高的情况下，将使持续超过通胀目标的成本相形见绌。显然，必须避免非常高的通货膨胀率，因为它们也可能成为金融不稳定的根源；但如果防止金融灾难需要几年的高个位数通胀，那么这个代价是非常值得的。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets.</b>  I hope (and expect) that central banks—not least the Federal Reserve—are ready to respond appropriately if the U.S. federal government breaches its “debt ceiling” on or around Oct. 18. A recent&nbsp;study&nbsp;by Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics concludes that a U.S. sovereign debt default could destroy up to 6 million U.S. jobs and wipe out as much as $15 trillion in private wealth. This estimate strikes me as optimistic. If the sovereign default were to be protracted, the costs would probably be much higher.</p><p><blockquote><b>非央行资产负债表没有足够的弹性来应对不良资产的抛售或持有流动负债和非流动资产的商业银行或其他具有系统重要性的金融机构的挤兑。</b>我希望（并期待）如果美国联邦政府在10月18日或前后突破“债务上限”，各国央行——尤其是美联储——准备好做出适当反应。穆迪分析公司（Moody’s Analytics）的马克·赞迪（Mark Zandi）最近的一项研究得出结论，美国主权债务违约可能会摧毁多达600万个美国工作岗位，并抹去多达15万亿美元的私人财富。这个估计让我觉得很乐观。如果主权违约长期化，成本可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> In any case, a U.S. sovereign default would also have a dramatic and devastating global impact, afflicting both advanced economies and emerging and developing markets. U.S. sovereign debtTMUBMUSD10Y,1.551%is widely held globally, and the U.S. dollarBUXX,0.43%remains the world’s senior reserve currency.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国主权违约也将产生巨大和毁灭性的全球影响，困扰发达经济体以及新兴和发展中市场。美国主权债务TTMUBMUSD10Y, 1.551%在全球范围内被广泛持有，美元BUXX, 0.43%仍然是世界的高级储备货币。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vulnerable to financial shocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>易受金融冲击</b></blockquote></p><p> Even without a self-inflicted wound like a congressional failure to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, financial fragility is rife nowadays. Household, corporate, financial, and government balance sheets have grown to record highs this century, rendering all four sectors more vulnerable to financial shocks.</p><p><blockquote>即使没有国会未能提高或暂停债务上限等自我造成的创伤，金融脆弱性如今也很普遍。家庭、企业、金融和政府的资产负债表已增长至本世纪的历史新高，使所有四个部门更容易受到金融冲击的影响。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>The economic and social cost of a</b>   <b>financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target.</b>  Central banks are the only economic actors capable of addressing the funding and market-liquidity crises that are now part of the new normal. There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets. This is as true in China as it is in the U.S., the eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济和社会成本</b><b>金融危机，尤其是在私人和公共杠杆率如此之高的情况下，将使持续超过通胀目标的成本相形见绌。</b>央行是唯一有能力解决融资和市场流动性危机的经济参与者，这些危机现在已成为新常态的一部分。非央行资产负债表没有足够的弹性来应对不良资产的抛售或持有流动负债和非流动资产的商业银行或其他具有系统重要性的金融机构的挤兑。这在中国是真实的，在美国、欧元区、日本和英国也是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> China’s real-estate bubble—and the household debt secured against it—is likely to implode sooner or later. The dangerously indebted property developer Evergrande could well be the catalyst. But even if Chinese authorities manage to prevent a full-fledged financial meltdown, a deep and persistent economic slump would be unavoidable. Add to that a marked decline in China’s potential growth rate (owing to demographics and enterprise-hostile policies), and the world economy will have lost one of its engines.</p><p><blockquote>中国的房地产泡沫——以及以此为抵押的家庭债务——可能迟早会破裂。负债累累的房地产开发商恒大很可能成为催化剂。但即使中国当局设法阻止了全面的金融崩溃，深度和持续的经济衰退也是不可避免的。再加上中国潜在增长率的显著下降（由于人口结构和反企业政策），世界经济将失去一个引擎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles</b></p><p><blockquote><b>扭曲的信念和持久的泡沫</b></blockquote></p><p> Across the advanced economies (and in many emerging markets), risk assets, notably equitySPX,+1.05%GDOW,0.04%DJIA,+0.92%and real estate, appear to be materially overvalued, despite recent minor corrections. The only way to avoid this conclusion is to believe that long-run real interest rates today (which are negative in many cases) are at or close to their fundamental values. I suspect that both the long-run real safe interest rate and assorted risk premiums are being artificially depressed by distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles, respectively. If so, today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.</p><p><blockquote>在整个发达经济体（以及许多新兴市场），风险资产，特别是股票SPX、+1.05%GDOW、0.04%道琼斯、+0.92%和房地产，似乎被严重高估，尽管最近略有调整。避免这一结论的唯一方法是相信今天的长期实际利率（在许多情况下为负）处于或接近其基本值。我怀疑长期实际安全利率和各种风险溢价分别被扭曲的信念和持久的泡沫人为压低。如果是这样的话，今天的风险资产估值就完全脱离了现实。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot.</b>  Whenever the inevitable price corrections materialize, central banks, supervisors, and regulators will need to work closely with finance ministries to limit the damage to the real economy. Significant deleveraging by all four sectors (households, nonfinancial corporates, financial institutions, and governments) will be necessary to reduce financial vulnerability and boost resilience. Orderly debt restructuring, including sovereign debt restructuring in several highly vulnerable developing countries, will need to be part of the overdue restoration of financial sustainability.</p><p><blockquote><b>2%通胀和最大就业的目标可以等待，但金融稳定不能。</b>每当不可避免的价格调整成为现实时，央行、监管者和监管者都需要与财政部密切合作，以限制对实体经济的损害。所有四个部门（家庭、非金融企业、金融机构和政府）都有必要大幅去杠杆化，以降低金融脆弱性和增强弹性。有序的债务重组，包括几个高度脆弱的发展中国家的主权债务重组，将需要成为迟来的恢复财政可持续性的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks, acting as lenders of last resort (LLR) and market makers of last resort (MMLR), will once again be the linchpins in what is sure to be a chaotic sequence of events. Their contributions to global financial stability have never been more important. The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot. Since LLR and MMLR operations are conducted in the twilight zone between illiquidity and insolvency, these central-bank activities have marked quasi-fiscal characteristics. Thus, the crisis now waiting in the wings will inevitably diminish central bank independence.</p><p><blockquote>作为最后贷款人（LLR）和最后做市商（MMLR）的央行将再次成为一系列混乱事件的关键。它们对全球金融稳定的贡献从未像现在这样重要。2%通胀和最大就业的目标可以等待，但金融稳定不能。由于LLR和MMLR操作是在流动性不足和破产之间的边缘地带进行的，这些央行活动具有明显的准财政特征。因此，即将到来的危机将不可避免地削弱央行的独立性。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Willem H. Buiter is an adjunct professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University.He was global chief economist at Citigroup from 2010 to 2018</i></b>.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>威廉·H·比特是哥伦比亚大学国际和公共事务兼职教授。2010年至2018年任花旗集团全球首席经济学家</i></b>.</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The next financial crisis is fast approaching<blockquote>下一次金融危机即将来临</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe next financial crisis is fast approaching<blockquote>下一次金融危机即将来临</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 17:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Central banks need to prepare because global stock markets and real estate are overvalued, while leverage is near record levels for households, corporations, banks and governments.</b>  NEW YORK (Project Syndicate)— Since early 2020, central banks across the advanced economies have had to choose between pursuing financial stability, low (typically 2%) inflation, or real economic activity. Without exception, they have opted in favor of financial stability, followed by real economic activity, with inflation last.</p><p><blockquote><b>各国央行需要做好准备，因为全球股市和房地产被高估，而家庭、企业、银行和政府的杠杆率接近创纪录水平。</b>纽约（Project Syndicate）——自2020年初以来，发达经济体的央行不得不在追求金融稳定、低通胀（通常为2%）或实体经济活动之间做出选择。无一例外，他们都选择了金融稳定，其次是实体经济活动，最后是通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> As a result, the only advanced-economy central bank to raise interest rates since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic has been Norway’s Norges Bank, which&nbsp;lifted&nbsp;its policy rate from zero to 0.25% on Sept. 24. While it has&nbsp;hinted&nbsp;that an additional rate increase is likely in December, and that its policy rate could reach 1.7% toward the end of 2024, that is merely more evidence of monetary policy makers’ extreme reluctance to implement the kind of rate increases that are required to achieve a 2% inflation target consistently.</p><p><blockquote>因此，自COVID-19大流行开始以来唯一加息的发达经济体央行是挪威央行，该央行于9月24日将政策利率从零上调至0.25%。尽管它暗示可能会在12月进一步加息，并且其政策利率可能在2024年底达到1.7%，但这只是更多证据表明货币政策制定者极其不愿意实施所需的加息持续实现2%的通胀目标。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>Today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.</b>  Central banks’ overwhelming reluctance to pursue interest-rate and balance-sheet policies compatible with their inflation targets should come as no surprise. In the years between the start of the Great Moderation in the mid-1980s and the 2007-08 financial crisis, advanced-economy central banks failed to give sufficient weight to financial stability. A prime example was the Bank of England’s loss of all supervisory and regulatory powers when it was granted operational independence in 1997.</p><p><blockquote><b>今天的风险资产估值完全脱离现实。</b>各国央行极不愿意推行与其通胀目标相适应的利率和资产负债表政策，这并不奇怪。在20世纪80年代中期大缓和开始到2007-08年金融危机之间的几年里，发达经济体的央行未能对金融稳定给予足够的重视。一个典型的例子是英格兰银行在1997年获得运营独立性时失去了所有监督和监管权力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Prioritize financial stability over inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>将金融稳定置于通胀之上</b></blockquote></p><p> The result was a financial disaster and a severe cyclical downturn. Confirming the logic of “once bitten, twice shy,” central banks then responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by pursuing unprecedentedly aggressive policies to ensure financial stability. But they also went far beyond what was required, pulling out all the policy stops to support real economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>结果是一场金融灾难和严重的周期性衰退。各国央行随后通过采取前所未有的激进政策来确保金融稳定，从而证实了“一劳永逸”的逻辑。但他们也远远超出了要求，用尽了所有政策来支持实体经济活动。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks were right to prioritize financial stability over price stability, considering that financial stability itself is a prerequisite for sustainable price stability (and for some central banks’ other target, full employment). The economic and social cost of a financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target. Obviously, very high inflation rates must be avoided, because they, too, can become a source of financial instability; but if preventing a financial calamity requires a few years of high single-digit inflation, the price is well worth it.</p><p><blockquote>各国央行将金融稳定置于价格稳定之上是正确的，因为金融稳定本身是可持续价格稳定的先决条件（对于一些央行的另一个目标，即充分就业）。金融危机的经济和社会成本，尤其是在私人和公共杠杆率如此之高的情况下，将使持续超过通胀目标的成本相形见绌。显然，必须避免非常高的通货膨胀率，因为它们也可能成为金融不稳定的根源；但如果防止金融灾难需要几年的高个位数通胀，那么这个代价是非常值得的。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets.</b>  I hope (and expect) that central banks—not least the Federal Reserve—are ready to respond appropriately if the U.S. federal government breaches its “debt ceiling” on or around Oct. 18. A recent&nbsp;study&nbsp;by Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics concludes that a U.S. sovereign debt default could destroy up to 6 million U.S. jobs and wipe out as much as $15 trillion in private wealth. This estimate strikes me as optimistic. If the sovereign default were to be protracted, the costs would probably be much higher.</p><p><blockquote><b>非央行资产负债表没有足够的弹性来应对不良资产的抛售或持有流动负债和非流动资产的商业银行或其他具有系统重要性的金融机构的挤兑。</b>我希望（并期待）如果美国联邦政府在10月18日或前后突破“债务上限”，各国央行——尤其是美联储——准备好做出适当反应。穆迪分析公司（Moody’s Analytics）的马克·赞迪（Mark Zandi）最近的一项研究得出结论，美国主权债务违约可能会摧毁多达600万个美国工作岗位，并抹去多达15万亿美元的私人财富。这个估计让我觉得很乐观。如果主权违约长期化，成本可能会高得多。</blockquote></p><p> In any case, a U.S. sovereign default would also have a dramatic and devastating global impact, afflicting both advanced economies and emerging and developing markets. U.S. sovereign debtTMUBMUSD10Y,1.551%is widely held globally, and the U.S. dollarBUXX,0.43%remains the world’s senior reserve currency.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国主权违约也将产生巨大和毁灭性的全球影响，困扰发达经济体以及新兴和发展中市场。美国主权债务TTMUBMUSD10Y, 1.551%在全球范围内被广泛持有，美元BUXX, 0.43%仍然是世界的高级储备货币。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Vulnerable to financial shocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>易受金融冲击</b></blockquote></p><p> Even without a self-inflicted wound like a congressional failure to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, financial fragility is rife nowadays. Household, corporate, financial, and government balance sheets have grown to record highs this century, rendering all four sectors more vulnerable to financial shocks.</p><p><blockquote>即使没有国会未能提高或暂停债务上限等自我造成的创伤，金融脆弱性如今也很普遍。家庭、企业、金融和政府的资产负债表已增长至本世纪的历史新高，使所有四个部门更容易受到金融冲击的影响。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>The economic and social cost of a</b>   <b>financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target.</b>  Central banks are the only economic actors capable of addressing the funding and market-liquidity crises that are now part of the new normal. There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets. This is as true in China as it is in the U.S., the eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济和社会成本</b><b>金融危机，尤其是在私人和公共杠杆率如此之高的情况下，将使持续超过通胀目标的成本相形见绌。</b>央行是唯一有能力解决融资和市场流动性危机的经济参与者，这些危机现在已成为新常态的一部分。非央行资产负债表没有足够的弹性来应对不良资产的抛售或持有流动负债和非流动资产的商业银行或其他具有系统重要性的金融机构的挤兑。这在中国是真实的，在美国、欧元区、日本和英国也是如此。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> China’s real-estate bubble—and the household debt secured against it—is likely to implode sooner or later. The dangerously indebted property developer Evergrande could well be the catalyst. But even if Chinese authorities manage to prevent a full-fledged financial meltdown, a deep and persistent economic slump would be unavoidable. Add to that a marked decline in China’s potential growth rate (owing to demographics and enterprise-hostile policies), and the world economy will have lost one of its engines.</p><p><blockquote>中国的房地产泡沫——以及以此为抵押的家庭债务——可能迟早会破裂。负债累累的房地产开发商恒大很可能成为催化剂。但即使中国当局设法阻止了全面的金融崩溃，深度和持续的经济衰退也是不可避免的。再加上中国潜在增长率的显著下降（由于人口结构和反企业政策），世界经济将失去一个引擎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles</b></p><p><blockquote><b>扭曲的信念和持久的泡沫</b></blockquote></p><p> Across the advanced economies (and in many emerging markets), risk assets, notably equitySPX,+1.05%GDOW,0.04%DJIA,+0.92%and real estate, appear to be materially overvalued, despite recent minor corrections. The only way to avoid this conclusion is to believe that long-run real interest rates today (which are negative in many cases) are at or close to their fundamental values. I suspect that both the long-run real safe interest rate and assorted risk premiums are being artificially depressed by distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles, respectively. If so, today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.</p><p><blockquote>在整个发达经济体（以及许多新兴市场），风险资产，特别是股票SPX、+1.05%GDOW、0.04%道琼斯、+0.92%和房地产，似乎被严重高估，尽管最近略有调整。避免这一结论的唯一方法是相信今天的长期实际利率（在许多情况下为负）处于或接近其基本值。我怀疑长期实际安全利率和各种风险溢价分别被扭曲的信念和持久的泡沫人为压低。如果是这样的话，今天的风险资产估值就完全脱离了现实。</blockquote></p><p>   <b>The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot.</b>  Whenever the inevitable price corrections materialize, central banks, supervisors, and regulators will need to work closely with finance ministries to limit the damage to the real economy. Significant deleveraging by all four sectors (households, nonfinancial corporates, financial institutions, and governments) will be necessary to reduce financial vulnerability and boost resilience. Orderly debt restructuring, including sovereign debt restructuring in several highly vulnerable developing countries, will need to be part of the overdue restoration of financial sustainability.</p><p><blockquote><b>2%通胀和最大就业的目标可以等待，但金融稳定不能。</b>每当不可避免的价格调整成为现实时，央行、监管者和监管者都需要与财政部密切合作，以限制对实体经济的损害。所有四个部门（家庭、非金融企业、金融机构和政府）都有必要大幅去杠杆化，以降低金融脆弱性和增强弹性。有序的债务重组，包括几个高度脆弱的发展中国家的主权债务重组，将需要成为迟来的恢复财政可持续性的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> Central banks, acting as lenders of last resort (LLR) and market makers of last resort (MMLR), will once again be the linchpins in what is sure to be a chaotic sequence of events. Their contributions to global financial stability have never been more important. The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot. Since LLR and MMLR operations are conducted in the twilight zone between illiquidity and insolvency, these central-bank activities have marked quasi-fiscal characteristics. Thus, the crisis now waiting in the wings will inevitably diminish central bank independence.</p><p><blockquote>作为最后贷款人（LLR）和最后做市商（MMLR）的央行将再次成为一系列混乱事件的关键。它们对全球金融稳定的贡献从未像现在这样重要。2%通胀和最大就业的目标可以等待，但金融稳定不能。由于LLR和MMLR操作是在流动性不足和破产之间的边缘地带进行的，这些央行活动具有明显的准财政特征。因此，即将到来的危机将不可避免地削弱央行的独立性。</blockquote></p><p> <b><i>Willem H. Buiter is an adjunct professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University.He was global chief economist at Citigroup from 2010 to 2018</i></b>.</p><p><blockquote><b><i>威廉·H·比特是哥伦比亚大学国际和公共事务兼职教授。2010年至2018年任花旗集团全球首席经济学家</i></b>.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-financial-crisis-is-fast-approaching-11633447555?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-financial-crisis-is-fast-approaching-11633447555?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140605265","content_text":"Central banks need to prepare because global stock markets and real estate are overvalued, while leverage is near record levels for households, corporations, banks and governments.\n\nNEW YORK (Project Syndicate)— Since early 2020, central banks across the advanced economies have had to choose between pursuing financial stability, low (typically 2%) inflation, or real economic activity. Without exception, they have opted in favor of financial stability, followed by real economic activity, with inflation last.\nAs a result, the only advanced-economy central bank to raise interest rates since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic has been Norway’s Norges Bank, which lifted its policy rate from zero to 0.25% on Sept. 24. While it has hinted that an additional rate increase is likely in December, and that its policy rate could reach 1.7% toward the end of 2024, that is merely more evidence of monetary policy makers’ extreme reluctance to implement the kind of rate increases that are required to achieve a 2% inflation target consistently.\n\nToday’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.\n\nCentral banks’ overwhelming reluctance to pursue interest-rate and balance-sheet policies compatible with their inflation targets should come as no surprise. In the years between the start of the Great Moderation in the mid-1980s and the 2007-08 financial crisis, advanced-economy central banks failed to give sufficient weight to financial stability. A prime example was the Bank of England’s loss of all supervisory and regulatory powers when it was granted operational independence in 1997.\nPrioritize financial stability over inflation\nThe result was a financial disaster and a severe cyclical downturn. Confirming the logic of “once bitten, twice shy,” central banks then responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by pursuing unprecedentedly aggressive policies to ensure financial stability. But they also went far beyond what was required, pulling out all the policy stops to support real economic activity.\nCentral banks were right to prioritize financial stability over price stability, considering that financial stability itself is a prerequisite for sustainable price stability (and for some central banks’ other target, full employment). The economic and social cost of a financial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target. Obviously, very high inflation rates must be avoided, because they, too, can become a source of financial instability; but if preventing a financial calamity requires a few years of high single-digit inflation, the price is well worth it.\n\nThere is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets.\n\nI hope (and expect) that central banks—not least the Federal Reserve—are ready to respond appropriately if the U.S. federal government breaches its “debt ceiling” on or around Oct. 18. A recent study by Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics concludes that a U.S. sovereign debt default could destroy up to 6 million U.S. jobs and wipe out as much as $15 trillion in private wealth. This estimate strikes me as optimistic. If the sovereign default were to be protracted, the costs would probably be much higher.\nIn any case, a U.S. sovereign default would also have a dramatic and devastating global impact, afflicting both advanced economies and emerging and developing markets. U.S. sovereign debtTMUBMUSD10Y,1.551%is widely held globally, and the U.S. dollarBUXX,0.43%remains the world’s senior reserve currency.\nVulnerable to financial shocks\nEven without a self-inflicted wound like a congressional failure to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, financial fragility is rife nowadays. Household, corporate, financial, and government balance sheets have grown to record highs this century, rendering all four sectors more vulnerable to financial shocks.\n\nThe economic and social cost of a\nfinancial crisis, especially with private and public leverage as high as it is today, would dwarf the cost of persistently overshooting the inflation target.\n\nCentral banks are the only economic actors capable of addressing the funding and market-liquidity crises that are now part of the new normal. There is not enough resilience in non-central bank balance sheets to address a fire sale of distressed assets or a run on commercial banks or other systemically important financial institutions that hold liquid liabilities and illiquid assets. This is as true in China as it is in the U.S., the eurozone, Japan, and the United Kingdom.\nChina’s real-estate bubble—and the household debt secured against it—is likely to implode sooner or later. The dangerously indebted property developer Evergrande could well be the catalyst. But even if Chinese authorities manage to prevent a full-fledged financial meltdown, a deep and persistent economic slump would be unavoidable. Add to that a marked decline in China’s potential growth rate (owing to demographics and enterprise-hostile policies), and the world economy will have lost one of its engines.\nDistorted beliefs and enduring bubbles\nAcross the advanced economies (and in many emerging markets), risk assets, notably equitySPX,+1.05%GDOW,0.04%DJIA,+0.92%and real estate, appear to be materially overvalued, despite recent minor corrections. The only way to avoid this conclusion is to believe that long-run real interest rates today (which are negative in many cases) are at or close to their fundamental values. I suspect that both the long-run real safe interest rate and assorted risk premiums are being artificially depressed by distorted beliefs and enduring bubbles, respectively. If so, today’s risk-asset valuations are utterly detached from reality.\n\nThe goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot.\n\nWhenever the inevitable price corrections materialize, central banks, supervisors, and regulators will need to work closely with finance ministries to limit the damage to the real economy. Significant deleveraging by all four sectors (households, nonfinancial corporates, financial institutions, and governments) will be necessary to reduce financial vulnerability and boost resilience. Orderly debt restructuring, including sovereign debt restructuring in several highly vulnerable developing countries, will need to be part of the overdue restoration of financial sustainability.\nCentral banks, acting as lenders of last resort (LLR) and market makers of last resort (MMLR), will once again be the linchpins in what is sure to be a chaotic sequence of events. Their contributions to global financial stability have never been more important. The goals of 2% inflation and maximum employment can wait, but financial stability cannot. Since LLR and MMLR operations are conducted in the twilight zone between illiquidity and insolvency, these central-bank activities have marked quasi-fiscal characteristics. Thus, the crisis now waiting in the wings will inevitably diminish central bank independence.\nWillem H. Buiter is an adjunct professor of international and public affairs at Columbia University.He was global chief economist at Citigroup from 2010 to 2018.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":215,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":889427273,"gmtCreate":1631172825292,"gmtModify":1631893439493,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Up, like pls","listText":"Up, like pls","text":"Up, like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889427273","repostId":"2165399556","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":899598745,"gmtCreate":1628205336687,"gmtModify":1633752731054,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and up.","listText":"Like and up.","text":"Like and up.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899598745","repostId":"2157456017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":524,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177806707,"gmtCreate":1627192078509,"gmtModify":1633767263439,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok and like pls.","listText":"Ok and like pls.","text":"Ok and like pls.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177806707","repostId":"1176552691","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176552691","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627183789,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176552691?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-25 11:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176552691","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs IBM Stock Undervalued Or Overvalued? What To Consider<blockquote>IBM股票是被低估还是被高估？要考虑什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-25 11:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>IBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.</li>  <li>Prior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.</li>  <li>More transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c798e0536c6804d44b195f6f349fab5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Ethan Miller/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>随着云收入和营业利润率的改善，IBM第二季度盈利超出了分析师的预期。</li><li>在第一季度之前，IBM连续四个季度收入下降，过去34个季度中有30个季度收入下降。</li><li>Kyndryl分拆需要更多透明度。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>伊森·米勒/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> International Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.</p><p><blockquote>国际商业机器公司（IBM）是一家转型中的公司。不幸的是，对于投资者来说，这种转变已经持续了十年的大部分时间。这些扭亏为盈的努力包括对云计算和人工智能的投资以及剥离遗留业务。虽然现在有绿芽的迹象，但播下的种子是否落在岩石上还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Although the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该公司在混合云产品方面拥有快速增长的业务，并在量子计算方面拥有潜在的增长引擎，但它面临着前一个行业的激烈竞争和后一个行业的不确定前景。该公司的大多数其他业务都处于低迷状态，因此IBM的增长前景不明朗。</blockquote></p><p> What is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，截至今天，IBM的债务负担合理且不断减少，自由现金流强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Management is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.</p><p><blockquote>管理层正试图通过专注于公司的云产品来部分解决增长问题，同时剥离其托管基础设施业务。该公司将被命名为Kyndryl。然而，新实体将承担的债务以及其将承担的当前股息部分尚未透露。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent Quarterly Results</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近季度业绩</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM&nbsp;reported&nbsp;Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.</p><p><blockquote>IBM上周一公布了第二季度业绩。该公司的非GAAP每股收益为2.33美元，超出预期0.04美元。</blockquote></p><p> Revenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.</p><p><blockquote>经货币和资产剥离调整后，营收为187亿美元，持平。</blockquote></p><p> The negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的负面影响是系统收入下降了7%。然而，这主要是由于正常的IBM Z大型机周期，同比下降13%。</blockquote></p><p> The global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.</p><p><blockquote>全球融资部门在总收入中所占比例较低，下降了9%。全球技术服务约占总收入的三分之一，并将主要分拆为Kyndryl，但增长平缓。</blockquote></p><p> The positive side of the report had Cloud &amp; Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.</p><p><blockquote>该报告的积极一面是云和认知软件云收入增长了29%，全球商业服务云收入增长了35%。过去12个月，云总收入为270亿美元，增长了15%，而本季度云收入增长了13%，达到70亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>过去12个月，经营活动产生的净现金达到177亿美元，调整后的自由现金流总计110亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Since year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>自2020年底以来，该公司已减少债务64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Where IBM Stands Tall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM屹立不倒的地方</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.</p><p><blockquote>许多人认为IBM往好了说是一家三流IT公司，往坏了说是一只濒临灭绝的恐龙。</blockquote></p><p> It is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，该公司的收入多年来一直在下降；然而，为了准确评估该股票，投资者必须了解IBM的传统业务有许多优势。</blockquote></p><p> For example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.</p><p><blockquote>例如，IBM是世界上最大的IT服务公司，也是大型机的主要提供商。在财富50强公司中，有47家是IBM的客户。</blockquote></p><p> Half of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.</p><p><blockquote>世界上一半的无线连接由该公司处理。</blockquote></p><p> IBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的大型机系统处理全球近90%的信用卡交易，97%的全球最大银行依赖IBM的产品和服务。因此，每年使用IBM系统处理290亿笔ATM交易。</blockquote></p><p> Eight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.</p><p><blockquote>十分之八的全球零售商依赖IBM的产品和服务，而80%的旅游业预订通过IBM系统进行。这导致使用该公司的IT服务处理40亿次航班预订。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ace4f1436fd2697c5ad266b5017e1dd\" tg-width=\"960\" tg-height=\"721\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Forbes</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：福布斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.</p><p><blockquote>很明显，IBM拥有庞大的客户群，提供了大规模的经常性收入。在许多情况下，转向竞争对手的产品意味着冒着敏感信息转移的风险，而许多人不愿意采取这一举措。</blockquote></p><p> However, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着向云服务和开源软件的过渡，越来越多的公司采用混合搭配的IT基础设施。反过来，这正在侵蚀IBM与客户转换成本相关的竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Sources Of Potential Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>潜在增长的来源</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Investors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh&nbsp;provided insight&nbsp;into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.</p><p><blockquote>投资者普遍了解IBM通过其混合云产品推动增长的努力。然而，在摩根大通最近的投资者会议上，首席财务官吉姆·卡瓦诺（Jim Kavanaugh）就混合云如何推动IBM其他一些部门的收入提供了见解。</blockquote></p><p>   For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.  Of course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.</p><p><blockquote>我们在混合云平台上每投入1美元（业务），我们就会看到3到5美元的软件拖累和6到8美元的服务拖累。当然，Kavanaugh使用drag来指的是与采用IBM混合云相关的软件和服务收入的增加。如果卡瓦诺的说法准确，这意味着在该公司混合云平台上花费的每一美元都可以从该公司的软件和服务产品中获得9至13美元的额外收入。</blockquote></p><p> Because hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.</p><p><blockquote>由于混合云混合使用内部私有云和公共云服务，因此它为客户提供了一定程度的数据隐私。这是医疗保健和金融服务客户特别关注的问题。因此，我认为IBM在与其他混合云提供商的竞争中可能具有优势，因为它在这些行业中拥有广泛的关系。</blockquote></p><p> I reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.</p><p><blockquote>我回顾了关于混合云市场预计增长率的各种预测。最近的研究，也属于其他预测的中间，是由魔多情报局进行的。该公司预测2021年至2026年的复合年增长率为18.73%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，该领域的主要运营商是思科(CSCO)、惠普(HPE)、亚马逊(AMZN)、思杰系统(CTXS)和IBM。</blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了该公司过去六个季度的总云增长记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fc85156e70f6caf8ae809f76126a723\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Company reports / Chart by Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：公司报告/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Aside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.</p><p><blockquote>除了云之外，还有另一个潜在增长的来源，尽管它不太可能很快实现。</blockquote></p><p> Early in 2019, IBM&nbsp;introduced&nbsp;the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.</p><p><blockquote>2019年初，IBM推出了Q System One。IBM Q systems是世界上第一台为科学和商业用途而设计的量子计算机。</blockquote></p><p> Pardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence&nbsp;forecasts&nbsp;a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.</p><p><blockquote>原谅我的双关语，但量子计算机代表了技术的巨大飞跃。Prescient And Strategic Intelligence预测，到2030年，该行业的CAGR将达到56%，量子计算机市场份额将达到近650亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to&nbsp;my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”</p><p><blockquote>有关量子计算和IBM在该行业中的地位的更多见解，我向您推荐我的文章“IBM：为什么我的眼睛盯着蓝色巨人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Understanding Kyndryl</b></p><p><blockquote><b>了解Kyndryl</b></blockquote></p><p> Once&nbsp;Kyndryl&nbsp;is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.</p><p><blockquote>Kyndryl一旦上市，将在115个国家拥有9万多名员工和4600多家客户。新实体的服务积压量为600亿美元，预计收入为190亿美元。该公司的规模是最接近的竞争对手的两倍，将成为全球最大的托管基础设施服务提供商。</blockquote></p><p> The split will&nbsp;transform&nbsp;IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.</p><p><blockquote>此次分拆将使IBM从一家一半收入来自服务的公司转变为一家软件和解决方案业务经常性收入超过一半的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Global Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will&nbsp;account&nbsp;for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>全球商业服务目前占公司收入的22%，将占销售额的40%以上。值得注意的是，该部门上季度的收入同比增长了12%。</blockquote></p><p> IBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.</p><p><blockquote>IBM将保留Red Hat及其解决方案提供商业务、系统业务、关键任务公共云服务，以及专注于大数据、人工智能和安全的软件组合。</blockquote></p><p> Initially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.</p><p><blockquote>最初，两家公司将各自成为对方的最大客户。</blockquote></p><p> What remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.</p><p><blockquote>关于分拆，尚待了解的是每家公司将承担多少债务，以及公司将支付的股息份额。克里希纳表示，两家公司将共同努力维持目前的支付水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Has IBM Turned The Corner?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM转危为安了吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Anyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.</p><p><blockquote>任何关注IBM的人都知道该公司经历了长期的糟糕业绩。下图提供了该公司过去十四个季度的季度自由现金流记录。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60cc8b82052f97dd449205999ee30711\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Data from ycharts / chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：数据来自ycharts/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这并不能证明该公司重回正轨，但最近的趋势至少令人鼓舞。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，IBM产生了108亿美元的自由现金流。2021年调整后自由现金流110亿至120亿美元的管理指南。这不包括与Kyndryl分拆相关的30亿美元结构性影响。</blockquote></p><p> The CEO&nbsp;recently stated&nbsp;he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这位首席执行官最近表示，他预计IBM将在2022年产生120亿至130亿美元的自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt And Dividend</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务和股息</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>虽然投资者可以理所当然地抱怨多年来的各种管理层举措，但该公司在进行多项收购的同时保持了合理的债务状况。</blockquote></p><p> The company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.</p><p><blockquote>自2019年年中达到峰值以来，该公司已将债务减少了约180亿美元。IBM维持投资级信用评级，下图记录了该公司最近偿还债务的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b73e613157c486a5f5e8306546121971\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: IBM Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：IBM演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> IBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的收益率为4.64%，派息率略低于61%，5年股息增长率为4.26%。如前所述，Kyndryl分拆后，两家公司将合作提供相当于当前股息的派息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock Overvalued?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是否被高估？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.</p><p><blockquote>IBM股价交易价格为141.13美元。8位分析师的平均12个月目标价为153.50美元。自上次收益报告以来，对该股进行评级的3位分析师的目标价为151.33美元。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.</p><p><blockquote>IBM的市盈率为24.05倍，远期市盈率为17.67倍。相比之下，其五年平均值分别为16.42倍和13.25倍。这远低于行业平均水平，这两个指标都在三十左右。</blockquote></p><p> The 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.</p><p><blockquote>Seeking Alpha Premium提供的3至5年期PEG为1.16倍。嘉信理财计算的PEG为1.49倍，雅虎没有提供PEG比率。</blockquote></p><p> I believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.</p><p><blockquote>我相信该股目前的市盈率反映了投资者对分拆完成后IBM增长加速的预期。PEG比率显示该股票估值合理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Is IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IBM股票是一项不错的长期投资吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> IBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.</p><p><blockquote>IBM在全球许多最大的公司中有着根深蒂固但不断发展的地位。不幸的是，被视为该公司主要增长途径的云也可能导致该公司一些遗留业务的缓慢恶化。</blockquote></p><p> That the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>云业务一直在快速增长是显而易见的：IBM现在拥有超过3,200个客户使用该公司的混合云平台。这几乎是收购红帽之前的四倍。</blockquote></p><p> If management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果管理层的说法准确，混合云平台将为软件和服务部门的收入带来强劲增长。结合Kyndryl缓慢增长的托管基础设施服务业务的分拆，有理由相信IBM将见证增长。</blockquote></p><p> IBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.</p><p><blockquote>IBM拥有稳健的资产负债表和强劲的收益率，当使用PEG比率作为股票估值的基础时，该股的交易价格略有折扣。</blockquote></p><p> All considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.</p><p><blockquote>综合考虑，我对IBM的评级为买入。</blockquote></p><p> I think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.</p><p><blockquote>我认为中短期最糟糕的情况是公司增长缓慢，而投资者则获得相当强劲的股息。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IBM":"IBM"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440996-is-ibm-stock-undervalued-overvalued","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176552691","content_text":"Summary\n\nIBM beat analysts’ second-quarter earnings as cloud revenue and operating margins improved.\nPrior to Q1, IBM posted declining revenue for four consecutive quarters, and 30 of the last 34 quarters.\nMore transparency is needed regarding the Kyndryl spinoff.\n\nEthan Miller/Getty Images News\nInternational Business Machines Corporation (IBM) is a company in transition. Unfortunately for investors, the transition has been in place for the better part of a decade. Those turnaround efforts include investments in cloud computing and artificial intelligence and the divestiture of legacy businesses. While there are now signs of green shoots, it is yet to be seen as to whether the seeds sown have fallen on rocky ground.\nAlthough the company has a rapidly growing business in hybrid cloud offerings, and a potential growth engine in quantum computing, it faces intense competition in the former industry and uncertain prospects in the latter. Most of the firm’s other businesses are in the doldrums, so IBM’s growth prospects are opaque.\nWhat is certain is that as of today, IBM has a reasonable and diminishing debt load and strong free cash flow.\nManagement is attempting to address growth concerns in part by focusing on the firm’s cloud offerings, while it spins off its managed infrastructure business. That company will be named Kyndryl. However, the debt which the new entity will shoulder, along with the portion of the current dividend that it will carry, has not been divulged.\nRecent Quarterly Results\nIBM reported Q2 results last Monday. With non-GAAP EPS of $2.33, the company beat estimates by $0.04.\nRevenue of $18.7 billion was flat when adjusted for currency and divestitures.\nThe negative side of the report had Systems revenue declining by 7%. However, this was largely due to the normal IBM Z mainframe cycle, down 13% year over year.\nThe global financing division, which represents a low single digit percentage of overall revenues, was down 9%. Global technology services, which represents roughly a third of overall revenue and will largely be spun off as Kyndryl, had flattish growth.\nThe positive side of the report had Cloud & Cognitive Software cloud revenue up 29% and Global Business Services cloud revenue up 35%. Total cloud revenue of $27 billion increased by 15% over the last 12 months, while cloud revenue grew 13% in the quarter to $7.0 billion.\nNet cash from operating activities hit $17.7 billion, and adjusted free cash flow totaled $11 billion over the last 12 months.\nSince year-end 2020, the company has reduced debt by $6.4 billion.\nManagement guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021.\nWhere IBM Stands Tall\nIBM is viewed by many as at best a third rate IT company and at worst as a dinosaur, headed towards extinction.\nIt is evident that the company’s revenues have declined for years; however, to accurately assess the stock, investors must understand that IBM’s legacy businesses have many strengths.\nFor example, IBM is the world’s largest IT services company and the dominant provider of mainframes. Among the Fortune 50 companies, 47 are IBM clients.\nHalf of the world’s wireless connections are handled by the firm.\nIBM's mainframe systems process nearly 90% of the globe’s credit card transactions, and 97% of the world's largest banks rely on IBM products and services. Consequently, twenty-nine billion ATM transactions are processed annually using IBM systems.\nEight out of 10 global retailers rely on IBM products and services while 80% of the travel industry's reservations run through IBM systems. That results in 4 billion flight reservations being processed using the company’s IT services.\nSource: Forbes\nIt is evident that IBM has a massive customer base that provides large scale recurring revenues. In many cases, moving to competitors' offerings would mean risking the transfer of sensitive information, a move many are not willing to take.\nHowever, with the transition to cloud services and open source software, there is an increased adoption by firms of mix and match IT infrastructures. In turn, this is eroding IBM’s competitive advantage associated with customer switching costs.\nThe Sources Of Potential Growth\nInvestors are generally aware of IBM's effort to drive growth through its hybrid cloud offerings. However, when questioned at JPMorgan’s recent investor conference, CFO Jim Kavanaugh provided insight into how hybrid cloud drives revenue in some of IBM’s other divisions.\n\n For every $1 (in business) we land on a hybrid cloud platform, we see $3 to $5 of software drag and $6 to $8 of services drag overall.\n\nOf course, Kavanaugh is using drag to refer to increased revenue in software and services associated with adoption of IBM’s hybrid cloud. If Kavanaugh’s claims are accurate, that means every dollar spent on the company’s hybrid cloud platform translates into $9 to $13 in additional revenue from the firm’s software and services offerings.\nBecause hybrid cloud uses a mix of on-premises private cloud and public cloud services, it offers clients a degree of data privacy. This is of particular concern for customers in healthcare and financial services. Consequently, I would posit that IBM might have an advantage in competing with other hybrid cloud providers as it has extensive relationships within those industries.\nI reviewed a variety of prognostications regarding projected growth rates for the hybrid cloud market. The most recent study, which also falls in the middle of other predictions, is by Mordor Intelligence. That firm forecasts a CAGR of 18.73% from 2021 through 2026.\nInvestors should be aware that the major operators in this space are Cisco (CSCO), Hewlett Packard (HPE), Amazon (AMZN), Citrix Systems (CTXS), and IBM.\nThe following chart provides a record of the firm’s total cloud growth over the last six quarters.\nSource: Company reports / Chart by Author\nAside from cloud, there is another source of potential growth, although it is unlikely to materialize soon.\nEarly in 2019, IBM introduced the Q System One. IBM Q systems are the world's first quantum computer designed for scientific and commercial use.\nPardon the pun, but quantum computers represent a quantum leap in technology. Prescient And Strategic Intelligence forecasts a CAGR of 56% for the industry through 2030 with the quantum computer market share reaching nearly $65 billion.\nFor additional insights regarding quantum computing and IBM’s position within that industry, I point you to my article, “IBM: Why My Eye Is Fixed On Big Blue.”\nUnderstanding Kyndryl\nOnce Kyndryl is launched, it will have more than 90,000 employees and more than 4,600 customers in 115 countries. With a $60 billion services backlog, the new entity will begin with projected revenues of $19 billion. At twice the size of its closest competitor, the company will be the world’s largest managed infrastructure services provider.\nThe split will transform IBM from a company that pulls half of its revenue from services to a firm with its software and solutions businesses generating over half of its revenue on a recurring basis.\nGlobal Business Services, which currently constitutes 22% of the company’s revenue, will account for over 40% of sales. Here it is important to note that the division grew revenue by 12% year over year in the last quarter.\nIBM will retain Red Hat and its solution provider business, the systems businesses, and its mission-critical public cloud service, and a software portfolio focused on big data, AI, and security.\nInitially, the two companies will each be the largest customer of the other.\nWhat remains to be known regarding the spinoff is how much debt each company will shoulder, and the share of the dividend that the companies will pay. Krishna stated the two companies will work together to sustain the current payout level.\nHas IBM Turned The Corner?\nAnyone who follows IBM knows the company has experienced an extended period of poor results. The following chart provides a record of the firm’s quarterly FCF over the last fourteen quarters.\nSource: Data from ycharts / chart by author\nWhile this is not proof positive that the company is back on track, the recent trend is at least encouraging.\nIn 2020, IBM generated $10.8 billion in free cash flow. Management guides for adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in 2021. This excludes $3 billion in structural impacts related to the Kyndryl spinoff.\nThe CEO recently stated he expects IBM to generate $12 billion to $13 billion in FCF in 2022.\nDebt And Dividend\nWhile investors can rightfully complain of a variety of management moves over the years, the firm has maintained a reasonable debt profile while engaging in a number of acquisitions.\nThe company has reduced the debt by roughly $18 billion since its peak in mid-2019. IBM maintains an investment level credit rating, and the following chart provides a record of the company’s progress paying down debt of late.\nSource: IBM Presentation\nIBM has a yield of 4.64%, a payout ratio a bit below 61%, and a 5 year dividend growth rate of 4.26%. As previously noted, following the spinoff of Kyndryl, the two companies will team to provide a payout equivalent to the current dividend.\nIs IBM Stock Overvalued?\nIBM shares trade for $141.13. The average 12 month price target of 8 analysts is $153.50. The price target of the 3 analysts rating the stock since the last earnings report is $151.33.\nIBM has a P/E of 24.05x and a forward P/E of 17.67x. This compares to its five year averages of 16.42x and 13.25x respectively. It is well below the sector average which is in the low thirties for both metrics.\nThe 3 to 5 year PEG provided by Seeking Alpha Premium is 1.16x. Schwab calculates a PEG of 1.49x, and Yahoo does not provide a PEG ratio.\nI believe the current P/E ratios for the stock reflect investors anticipating increased growth for IBM once the spinoff is complete. The PEG ratios show the stock is reasonably valued.\nIs IBM Stock A Good Long-Term Investment?\nIBM has an entrenched but evolving position among many of the largest companies on the globe. Unfortunately, the cloud, which is seen as the company’s primary avenue for growth, could also lead to a slow deterioration in some of the firm’s legacy businesses.\nThat the cloud business has been growing at a rapid pace is manifest: IBM can now boast of over 3,200 clients using the firm’s hybrid cloud platform. That is nearly four times the number just prior to the Red Hat acquisition.\nIf management’s claims are accurate, the hybrid cloud platform will create robust growth in the software and services division’s revenues. When combined with the spinoff of Kyndryl’s slow growing managed infrastructure services business, it is reasonable to believe IBM will witness increased growth.\nIBM has a solid balance sheet, a robust yield, and when viewed using PEG ratios as a basis for valuing the stock, the shares are trading at a bit of a discount.\nAll considered, I rate IBM as a BUY.\nI think the worst case short to mid-term scenario is that the company experiences slow growth while investors collect a rather robust dividend.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IBM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":888065984,"gmtCreate":1631414412548,"gmtModify":1631891561204,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Here","listText":"Here","text":"Here","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888065984","repostId":"1189654544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189654544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631406130,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189654544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-12 08:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189654544","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion i","content":"<p>After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在短暂的假期周经历了一波发行之后，未来一周将有10起IPO计划筹集超过30亿美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> Tech consultancy&nbsp;<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>技术咨询<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS)计划以63亿美元的市值筹集7亿美元。这家敏捷软件开发商为300多家企业客户提供优质的端到端数字战略、设计和工程服务。从2017年到2020年，该公司的收入复合年增长率为14%，并在2020年和2021年上半年扩大了利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Swiss running shoe brand&nbsp;<b>On Holding</b>(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士跑鞋品牌<b>持有时</b>(ONON)计划以59亿美元的市值筹集5.91亿美元。On是一家全球优质运动鞋、服装和配饰供应商，采用可持续材料及其专有技术设计。尽管面临来自其他知名运动服装品牌的激烈竞争，但该公司已展现出增长和盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> After ending talks to go public via SPAC,<b>Sportradar Group</b>(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.</p><p><blockquote>在结束通过SPAC上市的谈判后，<b>Sportradar集团</b>(SRAD)计划以79亿美元的市值筹集5.04亿美元。这家瑞士公司每年报道83项运动的750,000多场赛事，为体育联盟、博彩运营商和媒体公司提供软件、数据和内容。Sportradar已实现盈利，随着体育直播的恢复，2021年上半年增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> Drive-thru coffee chain&nbsp;<b>Dutch Bros</b>(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.</p><p><blockquote>得来速咖啡连锁店<b>荷兰兄弟</b>(BROS)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集4亿美元。这家总部位于俄勒冈州的公司在美国西部拥有471家得来速咖啡店连锁店，随着业务扩展到新州，它一直能够保持同店销售增长的记录。内部人士收到了IPO前的股息，并将把股票卖回给公司。</blockquote></p><p> Healthcare intelligence platform&nbsp;<b>Definitive Healthcare</b>(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>医疗智能平台<b>权威医疗保健</b>(DH)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。该公司提供医疗保健商业智能和分析平台，帮助其客户分析、导航和销售复杂的医疗保健生态系统。由于增长强劲，Definitive Healthcare尚未盈利，但将在IPO后进行杠杆化。</blockquote></p><p> Identity management platform&nbsp;<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.</p><p><blockquote>身份管理平台<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.48亿美元。该公司提供身份和访问管理软件，以及一个提供、认证和管理所有类型数字身份的平台。由于销售和营销费用高昂，ForgeRock无利可图，是价值数十亿美元的身份和访问市场中领先的下一代提供商。</blockquote></p><p> Immunology biotech&nbsp;<b>DICE Therapeutics</b>(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.</p><p><blockquote>免疫学生物技术<b>骰子疗法</b>(DICE)计划以5.5亿美元的市值筹集1.6亿美元。这家生物技术公司正在开发口服小分子疗法，以治疗免疫学和其他治疗领域的慢性疾病。DICE计划启动其主要候选药物S011806的1期试验，这是一种具有多种免疫学适应症的口服拮抗剂。</blockquote></p><p> Surgical robotics developer&nbsp;<b>PROCEPT BioRobotics</b>(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>手术机器人开发商<b>PROCEPT生物机器人</b>(PRCT)计划以11亿美元的市值筹集1.27亿美元。这家商业阶段的公司开发用于微创泌尿外科手术的手术机器人系统，最初的重点是治疗良性前列腺增生。PROCEPT BioRobotics非常无利可图，2021年上半年收入增长了六倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Oncology biotech&nbsp;<b>Tyra Biosciences</b>(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.</p><p><blockquote>肿瘤生物技术<b>泰拉生物科学公司</b>(TYRA)计划以5.84亿美元的市值筹集1.01亿美元。这家临床前生物技术公司正在开发用于癌症，特别是实体瘤的FGFR激酶抑制剂。Tyra的主要候选药物最初专注于膀胱癌，该公司预计将于2022年中期提交IND。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap gas delivery service&nbsp;<b>EzFill Holdings</b>(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.</p><p><blockquote>微帽气体输送服务<b>埃兹菲尔控股</b>(EZFL)计划以1.04亿美元的市值筹集2500万美元。这家移动加油公司通过移动应用程序在佛罗里达州提供按需加油服务。由于爆炸性增长，EzFill表示，它是南佛罗里达州市场的主导者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718698ff98644c4026f32efe91d076c6\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97fe13300d9e4cf61effc59b9706776a\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至9/9/21，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨了7.7%，而标普500上涨了19.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌11.0%，而ACWX指数上涨10.0%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括思摩尔国际和殷拓合伙人。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: The Fall IPO market kicks off with a 10 IPO week<blockquote>美国IPO周：秋季IPO市场以10周IPO拉开帷幕</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-12 08:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>在短暂的假期周经历了一波发行之后，未来一周将有10起IPO计划筹集超过30亿美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> Tech consultancy&nbsp;<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>技术咨询<b>Thoughtworks</b>(TWKS)计划以63亿美元的市值筹集7亿美元。这家敏捷软件开发商为300多家企业客户提供优质的端到端数字战略、设计和工程服务。从2017年到2020年，该公司的收入复合年增长率为14%，并在2020年和2021年上半年扩大了利润率。</blockquote></p><p> Swiss running shoe brand&nbsp;<b>On Holding</b>(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士跑鞋品牌<b>持有时</b>(ONON)计划以59亿美元的市值筹集5.91亿美元。On是一家全球优质运动鞋、服装和配饰供应商，采用可持续材料及其专有技术设计。尽管面临来自其他知名运动服装品牌的激烈竞争，但该公司已展现出增长和盈利能力。</blockquote></p><p> After ending talks to go public via SPAC,<b>Sportradar Group</b>(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.</p><p><blockquote>在结束通过SPAC上市的谈判后，<b>Sportradar集团</b>(SRAD)计划以79亿美元的市值筹集5.04亿美元。这家瑞士公司每年报道83项运动的750,000多场赛事，为体育联盟、博彩运营商和媒体公司提供软件、数据和内容。Sportradar已实现盈利，随着体育直播的恢复，2021年上半年增长加速。</blockquote></p><p> Drive-thru coffee chain&nbsp;<b>Dutch Bros</b>(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.</p><p><blockquote>得来速咖啡连锁店<b>荷兰兄弟</b>(BROS)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集4亿美元。这家总部位于俄勒冈州的公司在美国西部拥有471家得来速咖啡店连锁店，随着业务扩展到新州，它一直能够保持同店销售增长的记录。内部人士收到了IPO前的股息，并将把股票卖回给公司。</blockquote></p><p> Healthcare intelligence platform&nbsp;<b>Definitive Healthcare</b>(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.</p><p><blockquote>医疗智能平台<b>权威医疗保健</b>(DH)计划以33亿美元的市值筹集3.5亿美元。该公司提供医疗保健商业智能和分析平台，帮助其客户分析、导航和销售复杂的医疗保健生态系统。由于增长强劲，Definitive Healthcare尚未盈利，但将在IPO后进行杠杆化。</blockquote></p><p> Identity management platform&nbsp;<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.</p><p><blockquote>身份管理平台<b>ForgeRock</b>(FORG)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.48亿美元。该公司提供身份和访问管理软件，以及一个提供、认证和管理所有类型数字身份的平台。由于销售和营销费用高昂，ForgeRock无利可图，是价值数十亿美元的身份和访问市场中领先的下一代提供商。</blockquote></p><p> Immunology biotech&nbsp;<b>DICE Therapeutics</b>(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.</p><p><blockquote>免疫学生物技术<b>骰子疗法</b>(DICE)计划以5.5亿美元的市值筹集1.6亿美元。这家生物技术公司正在开发口服小分子疗法，以治疗免疫学和其他治疗领域的慢性疾病。DICE计划启动其主要候选药物S011806的1期试验，这是一种具有多种免疫学适应症的口服拮抗剂。</blockquote></p><p> Surgical robotics developer&nbsp;<b>PROCEPT BioRobotics</b>(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.</p><p><blockquote>手术机器人开发商<b>PROCEPT生物机器人</b>(PRCT)计划以11亿美元的市值筹集1.27亿美元。这家商业阶段的公司开发用于微创泌尿外科手术的手术机器人系统，最初的重点是治疗良性前列腺增生。PROCEPT BioRobotics非常无利可图，2021年上半年收入增长了六倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Oncology biotech&nbsp;<b>Tyra Biosciences</b>(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.</p><p><blockquote>肿瘤生物技术<b>泰拉生物科学公司</b>(TYRA)计划以5.84亿美元的市值筹集1.01亿美元。这家临床前生物技术公司正在开发用于癌症，特别是实体瘤的FGFR激酶抑制剂。Tyra的主要候选药物最初专注于膀胱癌，该公司预计将于2022年中期提交IND。</blockquote></p><p> Micro-cap gas delivery service&nbsp;<b>EzFill Holdings</b>(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.</p><p><blockquote>微帽气体输送服务<b>埃兹菲尔控股</b>(EZFL)计划以1.04亿美元的市值筹集2500万美元。这家移动加油公司通过移动应用程序在佛罗里达州提供按需加油服务。由于爆炸性增长，EzFill表示，它是南佛罗里达州市场的主导者。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/718698ff98644c4026f32efe91d076c6\" tg-width=\"1128\" tg-height=\"684\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97fe13300d9e4cf61effc59b9706776a\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"247\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至9/9/21，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨了7.7%，而标普500上涨了19.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Palantir Technologies（PLTR）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌11.0%，而ACWX指数上涨10.0%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括思摩尔国际和殷拓合伙人。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/85972/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-The-Fall-IPO-market-kicks-off-with-a-10-IPO-week\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BROS":"Dutch Bros Inc.","DH":"Definitive Healthcare Corp.","SRAD":"Sportradar Group AG","FORG":"ForgeRock, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","TWKS":"Thoughtworks Holding Inc.","ONON":"On Holding AG","PRCT":"PROCEPT BioRobotics",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DICE":"DICE Therapeutics, Inc.","TYRA":"Tyra Biosciences, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/85972/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-The-Fall-IPO-market-kicks-off-with-a-10-IPO-week","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189654544","content_text":"After a wave of launches in the short holiday week, 10 IPOs are scheduled to raise over $3 billion in the week ahead.\nTech consultancy Thoughtworks(TWKS) plans to raise $700 million at a $6.3 billion market cap. This agile software developer provides premium, end-to-end digital strategy, design, and engineering services to more than 300 enterprise customers. The company grew revenue at a 14% CAGR from 2017 to 2020, and expanded margins in 2020 and the 1H21.\nSwiss running shoe brand On Holding(ONON) plans to raise $591 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. On is a global provider of premium athletic footwear, apparel, and accessories that are designed using sustainable materials and its proprietary technology. The company has demonstrated growth and profitability, though it faces significant competition from other well-known sportswear brands.\nAfter ending talks to go public via SPAC,Sportradar Group(SRAD) plans to raise $504 million at a $7.9 billion market cap. Covering over 750,000 events annually across 83 sports, this Swiss company provides software, data, and content to sports leagues, betting operators, and media companies. Sportradar is profitable, and growth accelerated in the 1H21 as live sports resumed.\nDrive-thru coffee chain Dutch Bros(BROS) plans to raise $400 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This Oregon-based company has a chain of 471 drive-thru coffee shops in the Western US, and it has been able to maintain a track record of same-store sales growth as it has expanded to new states. Insiders received pre-IPO dividends and will sell shares back to the company.\nHealthcare intelligence platform Definitive Healthcare(DH) plans to raise $350 million at a $3.3 billion market cap. This company provides a healthcare commercial intelligence and analytics platform, helping its customers to analyze, navigate, and sell into the complex healthcare ecosystem. Unprofitable with strong growth, Definitive Healthcare will be leveraged post-IPO.\nIdentity management platform ForgeRock(FORG) plans to raise $248 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company provides identity and access management software, with a platform to provision, authenticate, and govern all types of digital identities. Unprofitable with high sales and marketing expenses, ForgeRock is a leading next-gen provider in the multi-billion-dollar identity and access market.\nImmunology biotech DICE Therapeutics(DICE) plans to raise $160 million at a $550 million market cap. This biotech is developing oral small molecule therapies to treat chronic diseases in immunology and other therapeutic areas. DICE plans to initiate a Phase 1 trial of its lead candidate S011806, an oral antagonist with a variety of immunology indications.\nSurgical robotics developer PROCEPT BioRobotics(PRCT) plans to raise $127 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. This commercial-stage company develops surgical robotic systems for minimally-invasive urologic surgery with an initial focus on treating benign prostatic hyperplasia. PROCEPT BioRobotics is highly unprofitable and saw revenue increase more than sixfold in the 1H21.\nOncology biotech Tyra Biosciences(TYRA) plans to raise $101 million at a $584 million market cap. This preclinical biotech is developing FGFR kinase inhibitors for cancer, specifically solid tumors. Tyra’s lead candidate is initially focused on bladder cancer, and the company expects to submit an IND for it in mid-2022.\nMicro-cap gas delivery service EzFill Holdings(EZFL) plans to raise $25 million at a $104 million market cap. This mobile-fueling company provides an on-demand fuel delivery service in Florida via mobile app. Highly unprofitable with explosive growth, EzFill states that it is the dominant player in the South Florida market.\n\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 9/9/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 7.7% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 19.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Palantir Technologies (PLTR). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 11.0% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.0%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Smoore International and EQT Partners.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"BROS":0.9,"PRCT":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"DICE":0.9,"EZFL":0.9,"SRAD":0.9,"TWKS":0.9,"TYRA":0.9,"FORG":0.9,"DH":0.9,"ONON":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818888474,"gmtCreate":1630395621498,"gmtModify":1704959639172,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818888474","repostId":"2163833181","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896311821,"gmtCreate":1628555864163,"gmtModify":1633746228803,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok, like pls","listText":"Ok, like pls","text":"Ok, like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896311821","repostId":"1184775434","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807247899,"gmtCreate":1628041081411,"gmtModify":1633754137529,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807247899","repostId":"2156312793","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807870867,"gmtCreate":1628032517359,"gmtModify":1633754318181,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice. Like pls.","listText":"Nice. Like pls.","text":"Nice. Like pls.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807870867","repostId":"2156312793","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":840797000,"gmtCreate":1635684823814,"gmtModify":1635684823929,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ups","listText":"Ups","text":"Ups","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840797000","repostId":"2179226336","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":885658504,"gmtCreate":1631789864408,"gmtModify":1631891561151,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Haha, so in depth. Like pls","listText":"Haha, so in depth. Like pls","text":"Haha, so in depth. Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885658504","repostId":"1126607843","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126607843","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631785252,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126607843?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-16 17:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction<blockquote>苹果Vs。微软：在修正的情况下，谁更容易跌倒</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126607843","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nObjectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves at","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Objectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves attention.</li>  <li>In the recent past, Apple and Microsoft have responded differently to a significant decline in the stock market.</li>  <li>Apple and&nbsp;Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.</li>  <li>In the event of a hypothetical correction, Microsoft's potential for falling is lower than Apple's.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a07b4e98bb726c0044932fc29b3089b3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1208\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>vicnt/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>客观而言，现在股市大幅回调的可能性值得关注。</li><li>最近，苹果和微软对股市大幅下跌的反应不同。</li><li>苹果和微软在未来现金流方面往往被低估，而在潜在股息方面则被高估。</li><li>在假设回调的情况下，微软下跌的可能性低于苹果。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>vicnt/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>As an introduction...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>作为介绍...</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the last major correction in the US stock market ended in March 2020, the Nasdaq index has risen nearly 170%:</p><p><blockquote>自2020年3月美股上一次大回调结束以来，纳斯达克指数累计上涨近170%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a849f8e9ddf15f484770a5f0227fcd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For a year and a half, this is a very strong result, considering that the average annual total price return of the index over the past decade does not exceed 20%.<i>This fact alone makes us estimate the likelihood of a new significant correction in the stock market higher.</i></p><p><blockquote>对于一年半来说，考虑到该指数过去十年的年均总价格回报率不超过20%，这是一个非常强劲的结果。<i>仅这一事实就让我们估计股市有可能出现新的大幅回调。</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37eb0178d9d463c7419b99632a6ec614\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：VisualizedAnalytics</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, there are other factors that make us wary of the current price level of the market.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有其他因素让我们对市场目前的价格水平保持警惕。</blockquote></p><p> First, this year there is a record inflow of liquidity to the stock market. I'm not talking about the reasons now, they are obvious. But this fact alone makes the market extremely volatile:</p><p><blockquote>首先，今年流入股市的流动性创历史新高。我现在不说原因，很明显。但仅这一事实就让市场异常波动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10623d7cecd8dec70bb229b809458b68\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"918\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bank of America</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美国银行</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Second, the relative size of the US stock market has exceeded 200% of nominal GDP. In principle, this is not a fundamental limit. But it was the ultra-soft monetary policy that allowed the US stock market to reach its current record level. And most likely, in this context, a reversal is&nbsp;already outlined.</p><p><blockquote>第二，美国股市的相对规模已经超过名义GDP的200%。原则上，这不是一个根本性的限制。但正是超软货币政策让美国股市达到了目前的创纪录水平。最有可能的是，在这种情况下，逆转已经出现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69cd6450737ddf3e5fcbd6406c793ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：VisualizedAnalytics</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And finally the third. The macrocycle also allows us to expect the market to enter a phase of increased volatility and tightening of monetary policy:</p><p><blockquote>最后是第三个。宏观周期也让我们预计市场将进入波动加剧和货币政策收紧的阶段：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d6a6a794dde6f4e1d3e6e9149b55060\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：VisualizedAnalytics</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, objectively, the likelihood of the next correction of the stock market at least deserves attention. And in this context, I propose to answer the question:<i>in case of a correction, which company is inclined to fall harder - Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT)?</i></p><p><blockquote>所以，客观而言，股市下一次回调的可能性至少值得关注。在这种情况下，我建议回答这个问题：<i>如果出现调整，苹果（AAPL）和微软（MSFT）哪家公司的跌幅更大？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Apple vs. Microsoft?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么是苹果对微软？</b></blockquote></p><p> The decision to compare exactly these two companies was dictated by two factors.</p><p><blockquote>准确比较这两家公司的决定由两个因素决定。</blockquote></p><p> Firstly, these are the two largest companies in the tech sector, together accounting for more than 10% of the total capitalization of the US stock market. These companies are so large that, in principle, their dynamics alone can cause a new wave of correction:</p><p><blockquote>首先，这是科技行业最大的两家公司，合计占美国股市总市值的10%以上。这些公司规模如此之大，以至于原则上，仅凭它们的动态就可以引发新一波的调整：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3ef401b67c298ecbd9d56d31fc6927\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31417d34d6eacb724c20b3a274068467\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：VisualizedAnalytics</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Secondly, both companies pay dividends. In matters of fundamental valuation, this factor plays a significant role.</p><p><blockquote>其次，两家公司都支付股息。在基本面估值方面，这一因素发挥着重要作用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Some Statistics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些统计数据</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with, let's take a look at what price dynamics both companies have shown during strong market fluctuations in the recent past.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们来看看两家公司在近期市场剧烈波动期间表现出的价格动态。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, I have broken the three-year span into eight periods of market movement:</p><p><blockquote>为了做到这一点，我将三年的时间跨度分为八个市场运动时期：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfd9dec91d94990cf5217aa649758ac\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"578\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView, Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView，作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here are the results that companies have shown in each of the periods:</p><p><blockquote>以下是公司在每个时期显示的结果：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/868067f19c2251bfdb0658a251596fcc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> At first glance, the statistics are unambiguous:<i>during periods of correction, the price of Microsoft tends to decrease less than that of Apple.</i>But on the other hand, Apple has consistently performed better during periods of market growth. And in this case, the result obtained can simply be explained by the technical factors of the market behavior.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，统计数据毫不含糊：<i>在回调期间，微软价格的跌幅往往小于苹果。</i>但另一方面，苹果在市场增长时期的表现一直更好。并且在这种情况下，得到的结果可以简单地用市场行为的技术因素来解释。</blockquote></p><p> But in the current period of growth, both companies demonstrate approximately the same return. And therefore, here we do not find a clue to our question...</p><p><blockquote>但在当前的增长期，两家公司的回报大致相同。因此，在这里我们找不到问题的线索...</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamentals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本原则</b></blockquote></p><p> Exclusively in an investment context, the price of a company's share can be viewed from two points of view.</p><p><blockquote>仅在投资背景下，公司股票的价格可以从两个角度来看待。</blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, the price reflects the present value of the company's&nbsp;<b>future cash flow</b>. On the other hand, the price is the present value of the sum of&nbsp;<b>all potential dividends</b>that the company will pay in the future. Let's model these prices for Apple and Microsoft. And for this I will build, respectively, the Discounted Cash Flow Model and the Dividend Discount Model.</p><p><blockquote>价格一方面反映了公司的现值<b>未来现金流量</b>另一方面，价格是以下各项之和的现值<b>所有潜在股息</b>公司未来将支付的费用。让我们对苹果和微软的价格进行建模。为此，我将分别建立贴现现金流模型和股息贴现模型。</blockquote></p><p> In order for the models to be less subjective, I will take as a basis the average expectations of analysts regarding the revenue and EPS of the companies in the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>为了使模型不那么主观，我将以分析师对公司未来十年收入和每股收益的平均预期为基础。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start with&nbsp;<b>Apple</b>. Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>让我们从<b>苹果</b>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算方法：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8fc4e5dc7025dd1227ea5279073aa5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Notes:</p><p><blockquote>附注：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.33%).</li>  <li>I used the current&nbsp;value&nbsp;of the three-year beta coefficient. For a terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li>  <li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 divided by the average debt in 2019 and 2018.</li> </ul> Here is the DCF model:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.33%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用了2020年的利息支出除以2019年和2018年的平均债务。</li></ul>以下是DCF模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfb45a9125bb1f465cd34a6a8a6d06a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The DCF-based target price for Apple's shares is about $181 (+22%).</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基于DCF的苹果股票目标价约为181美元（+22%）。</b></blockquote></p><p> In the case of Apple, when building the Dividend Discount Model it is also necessary to take into account the fact that the company continues to actively buy back:</p><p><blockquote>以苹果为例，在构建股息贴现模型时还需要考虑公司持续积极回购的事实：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84076d0fc1bb5dbec8c1e6e19434153\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Continuing the current dynamics, the model assumes that by the terminal year the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 13.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>继续当前的动态，该模型假设到最后一年，稀释后的股票数量将减少至135亿股。</blockquote></p><p> Apple spends an average of 25% of its net income on dividends. I assume that the payout ratio will remain at this level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果平均将净利润的25%用于股息。我假设派息率将保持在这个水平。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the Dividend Discount Model itself:</p><p><blockquote>以下是股息折扣模型本身：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8990a8299cc0652d77815710f0ab427\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>The DDM-based target price for Apple's shares is $69 (-54%).</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>基于DDM的苹果股票目标价为69美元（-54%）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Now let's take a look at Microsoft.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们来看看微软。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the calculation of the WACC:</p><p><blockquote>以下是WACC的计算：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15889e90904c69497b749f28bd64190f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And here is the DCF model:</p><p><blockquote>这是DCF模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dca7339e43f534807bf043b1931e1db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"506\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The DCF-based target price for Microsoft's shares is about $353 (+18%).</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基于DCF的微软股票目标价约为353美元（+18%）。</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft is also actively buying back shares:</p><p><blockquote>微软也在积极回购股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deec463f584b5eb7913d72938d3e1ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我假设过去两年的动态将持续下去，到最后一年，稀释后的股票数量将减少到72亿股。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the Dividend Discount Model:</p><p><blockquote>以下是股息折扣模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c863b92e948f78e518d5619b44647d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>The DDM-based target price for Microsoft's shares is $203 (-32%).</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>基于DDM的微软股票目标价为203美元（-32%）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Let's summarize:</p><p><blockquote>我们来总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84b527d82270843e021a89a9ecdf68e6\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"212\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It is worth noting that I have already been observing similar results in the case of these companies for a long time. I mean, Apple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，我长期以来一直在观察这些公司的类似结果。我的意思是，苹果和微软在未来现金流方面往往被低估，而在潜在股息方面则被高估。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> This suggests that during periods of market growth, investors are not particularly inclined to pay attention to dividends. Moreover, most likely dividends are perceived simply as a bonus.</p><p><blockquote>这表明，在市场增长期间，投资者并不特别倾向于关注股息。此外，最有可能的股息被简单地视为奖金。</blockquote></p><p> But during periods of market correction, the present value of potential dividends is the minimum level below which it is difficult for the price to fall. And in this context, I think Microsoft is in a better position than Apple.</p><p><blockquote>但在市场调整期间，潜在股息的现值是价格难以下跌的最低水平。在这种背景下，我认为微软比苹果处于更好的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> At the current stage of the market cycle, when the likelihood of a correction has gone beyond formal, in my opinion, investing in Microsoft is less risky compared to Apple.</p><p><blockquote>在市场周期的当前阶段，当回调的可能性已经超出形式时，在我看来，与苹果相比，投资微软的风险较小。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction<blockquote>苹果Vs。微软：在修正的情况下，谁更容易跌倒</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Vs. Microsoft: Who Is Inclined To Fall Harder In Case Of Correction<blockquote>苹果Vs。微软：在修正的情况下，谁更容易跌倒</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-16 17:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Objectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves attention.</li>  <li>In the recent past, Apple and Microsoft have responded differently to a significant decline in the stock market.</li>  <li>Apple and&nbsp;Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.</li>  <li>In the event of a hypothetical correction, Microsoft's potential for falling is lower than Apple's.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a07b4e98bb726c0044932fc29b3089b3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1208\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>vicnt/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>客观而言，现在股市大幅回调的可能性值得关注。</li><li>最近，苹果和微软对股市大幅下跌的反应不同。</li><li>苹果和微软在未来现金流方面往往被低估，而在潜在股息方面则被高估。</li><li>在假设回调的情况下，微软下跌的可能性低于苹果。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>vicnt/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>As an introduction...</b></p><p><blockquote><b>作为介绍...</b></blockquote></p><p> Since the last major correction in the US stock market ended in March 2020, the Nasdaq index has risen nearly 170%:</p><p><blockquote>自2020年3月美股上一次大回调结束以来，纳斯达克指数累计上涨近170%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05a849f8e9ddf15f484770a5f0227fcd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> For a year and a half, this is a very strong result, considering that the average annual total price return of the index over the past decade does not exceed 20%.<i>This fact alone makes us estimate the likelihood of a new significant correction in the stock market higher.</i></p><p><blockquote>对于一年半来说，考虑到该指数过去十年的年均总价格回报率不超过20%，这是一个非常强劲的结果。<i>仅这一事实就让我们估计股市有可能出现新的大幅回调。</i></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37eb0178d9d463c7419b99632a6ec614\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：VisualizedAnalytics</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition, there are other factors that make us wary of the current price level of the market.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有其他因素让我们对市场目前的价格水平保持警惕。</blockquote></p><p> First, this year there is a record inflow of liquidity to the stock market. I'm not talking about the reasons now, they are obvious. But this fact alone makes the market extremely volatile:</p><p><blockquote>首先，今年流入股市的流动性创历史新高。我现在不说原因，很明显。但仅这一事实就让市场异常波动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10623d7cecd8dec70bb229b809458b68\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"918\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Bank of America</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：美国银行</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Second, the relative size of the US stock market has exceeded 200% of nominal GDP. In principle, this is not a fundamental limit. But it was the ultra-soft monetary policy that allowed the US stock market to reach its current record level. And most likely, in this context, a reversal is&nbsp;already outlined.</p><p><blockquote>第二，美国股市的相对规模已经超过名义GDP的200%。原则上，这不是一个根本性的限制。但正是超软货币政策让美国股市达到了目前的创纪录水平。最有可能的是，在这种情况下，逆转已经出现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f69cd6450737ddf3e5fcbd6406c793ba\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：VisualizedAnalytics</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And finally the third. The macrocycle also allows us to expect the market to enter a phase of increased volatility and tightening of monetary policy:</p><p><blockquote>最后是第三个。宏观周期也让我们预计市场将进入波动加剧和货币政策收紧的阶段：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d6a6a794dde6f4e1d3e6e9149b55060\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：VisualizedAnalytics</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So, objectively, the likelihood of the next correction of the stock market at least deserves attention. And in this context, I propose to answer the question:<i>in case of a correction, which company is inclined to fall harder - Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT)?</i></p><p><blockquote>所以，客观而言，股市下一次回调的可能性至少值得关注。在这种情况下，我建议回答这个问题：<i>如果出现调整，苹果（AAPL）和微软（MSFT）哪家公司的跌幅更大？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Apple vs. Microsoft?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么是苹果对微软？</b></blockquote></p><p> The decision to compare exactly these two companies was dictated by two factors.</p><p><blockquote>准确比较这两家公司的决定由两个因素决定。</blockquote></p><p> Firstly, these are the two largest companies in the tech sector, together accounting for more than 10% of the total capitalization of the US stock market. These companies are so large that, in principle, their dynamics alone can cause a new wave of correction:</p><p><blockquote>首先，这是科技行业最大的两家公司，合计占美国股市总市值的10%以上。这些公司规模如此之大，以至于原则上，仅凭它们的动态就可以引发新一波的调整：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf3ef401b67c298ecbd9d56d31fc6927\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/31417d34d6eacb724c20b3a274068467\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: VisualizedAnalytics</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：VisualizedAnalytics</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Secondly, both companies pay dividends. In matters of fundamental valuation, this factor plays a significant role.</p><p><blockquote>其次，两家公司都支付股息。在基本面估值方面，这一因素发挥着重要作用。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Some Statistics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些统计数据</b></blockquote></p><p> To begin with, let's take a look at what price dynamics both companies have shown during strong market fluctuations in the recent past.</p><p><blockquote>首先，让我们来看看两家公司在近期市场剧烈波动期间表现出的价格动态。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, I have broken the three-year span into eight periods of market movement:</p><p><blockquote>为了做到这一点，我将三年的时间跨度分为八个市场运动时期：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edfd9dec91d94990cf5217aa649758ac\" tg-width=\"947\" tg-height=\"578\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: TradingView, Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TradingView，作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Here are the results that companies have shown in each of the periods:</p><p><blockquote>以下是公司在每个时期显示的结果：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/868067f19c2251bfdb0658a251596fcc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"214\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> At first glance, the statistics are unambiguous:<i>during periods of correction, the price of Microsoft tends to decrease less than that of Apple.</i>But on the other hand, Apple has consistently performed better during periods of market growth. And in this case, the result obtained can simply be explained by the technical factors of the market behavior.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，统计数据毫不含糊：<i>在回调期间，微软价格的跌幅往往小于苹果。</i>但另一方面，苹果在市场增长时期的表现一直更好。并且在这种情况下，得到的结果可以简单地用市场行为的技术因素来解释。</blockquote></p><p> But in the current period of growth, both companies demonstrate approximately the same return. And therefore, here we do not find a clue to our question...</p><p><blockquote>但在当前的增长期，两家公司的回报大致相同。因此，在这里我们找不到问题的线索...</blockquote></p><p> <b>Fundamentals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基本原则</b></blockquote></p><p> Exclusively in an investment context, the price of a company's share can be viewed from two points of view.</p><p><blockquote>仅在投资背景下，公司股票的价格可以从两个角度来看待。</blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, the price reflects the present value of the company's&nbsp;<b>future cash flow</b>. On the other hand, the price is the present value of the sum of&nbsp;<b>all potential dividends</b>that the company will pay in the future. Let's model these prices for Apple and Microsoft. And for this I will build, respectively, the Discounted Cash Flow Model and the Dividend Discount Model.</p><p><blockquote>价格一方面反映了公司的现值<b>未来现金流量</b>另一方面，价格是以下各项之和的现值<b>所有潜在股息</b>公司未来将支付的费用。让我们对苹果和微软的价格进行建模。为此，我将分别建立贴现现金流模型和股息贴现模型。</blockquote></p><p> In order for the models to be less subjective, I will take as a basis the average expectations of analysts regarding the revenue and EPS of the companies in the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>为了使模型不那么主观，我将以分析师对公司未来十年收入和每股收益的平均预期为基础。</blockquote></p><p> Let's start with&nbsp;<b>Apple</b>. Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:</p><p><blockquote>让我们从<b>苹果</b>以下是加权平均资本成本的计算方法：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f8fc4e5dc7025dd1227ea5279073aa5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Notes:</p><p><blockquote>附注：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.33%).</li>  <li>I used the current&nbsp;value&nbsp;of the three-year beta coefficient. For a terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.</li>  <li>To calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 divided by the average debt in 2019 and 2018.</li> </ul> Here is the DCF model:</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了计算市场回报率，我使用了equityriskpremium（4.72%）和UST10的当前收益率作为无风险利率（1.33%）。</li><li>我使用了三年贝塔系数的当前值。在最后一年，我使用Beta等于1。</li><li>为了计算债务成本，我使用了2020年的利息支出除以2019年和2018年的平均债务。</li></ul>以下是DCF模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfb45a9125bb1f465cd34a6a8a6d06a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The DCF-based target price for Apple's shares is about $181 (+22%).</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基于DCF的苹果股票目标价约为181美元（+22%）。</b></blockquote></p><p> In the case of Apple, when building the Dividend Discount Model it is also necessary to take into account the fact that the company continues to actively buy back:</p><p><blockquote>以苹果为例，在构建股息贴现模型时还需要考虑公司持续积极回购的事实：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d84076d0fc1bb5dbec8c1e6e19434153\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Continuing the current dynamics, the model assumes that by the terminal year the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 13.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>继续当前的动态，该模型假设到最后一年，稀释后的股票数量将减少至135亿股。</blockquote></p><p> Apple spends an average of 25% of its net income on dividends. I assume that the payout ratio will remain at this level.</p><p><blockquote>苹果平均将净利润的25%用于股息。我假设派息率将保持在这个水平。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the Dividend Discount Model itself:</p><p><blockquote>以下是股息折扣模型本身：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8990a8299cc0652d77815710f0ab427\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"292\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>The DDM-based target price for Apple's shares is $69 (-54%).</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>基于DDM的苹果股票目标价为69美元（-54%）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Now let's take a look at Microsoft.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们来看看微软。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the calculation of the WACC:</p><p><blockquote>以下是WACC的计算：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15889e90904c69497b749f28bd64190f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And here is the DCF model:</p><p><blockquote>这是DCF模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7dca7339e43f534807bf043b1931e1db\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"506\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The DCF-based target price for Microsoft's shares is about $353 (+18%).</b></p><p><blockquote><b>基于DCF的微软股票目标价约为353美元（+18%）。</b></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft is also actively buying back shares:</p><p><blockquote>微软也在积极回购股票：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1deec463f584b5eb7913d72938d3e1ca\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>我假设过去两年的动态将持续下去，到最后一年，稀释后的股票数量将减少到72亿股。</blockquote></p><p> Here is the Dividend Discount Model:</p><p><blockquote>以下是股息折扣模型：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18c863b92e948f78e518d5619b44647d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"283\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>The DDM-based target price for Microsoft's shares is $203 (-32%).</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>基于DDM的微软股票目标价为203美元（-32%）。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> Let's summarize:</p><p><blockquote>我们来总结一下：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84b527d82270843e021a89a9ecdf68e6\" tg-width=\"906\" tg-height=\"212\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It is worth noting that I have already been observing similar results in the case of these companies for a long time. I mean, Apple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，我长期以来一直在观察这些公司的类似结果。我的意思是，苹果和微软在未来现金流方面往往被低估，而在潜在股息方面则被高估。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> This suggests that during periods of market growth, investors are not particularly inclined to pay attention to dividends. Moreover, most likely dividends are perceived simply as a bonus.</p><p><blockquote>这表明，在市场增长期间，投资者并不特别倾向于关注股息。此外，最有可能的股息被简单地视为奖金。</blockquote></p><p> But during periods of market correction, the present value of potential dividends is the minimum level below which it is difficult for the price to fall. And in this context, I think Microsoft is in a better position than Apple.</p><p><blockquote>但在市场调整期间，潜在股息的现值是价格难以下跌的最低水平。在这种背景下，我认为微软比苹果处于更好的位置。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> At the current stage of the market cycle, when the likelihood of a correction has gone beyond formal, in my opinion, investing in Microsoft is less risky compared to Apple.</p><p><blockquote>在市场周期的当前阶段，当回调的可能性已经超出形式时，在我看来，与苹果相比，投资微软的风险较小。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455478-apple-stock-vs-microsoft-stock-who-is-inclined-to-fall-harder-in-case-of-correction\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4455478-apple-stock-vs-microsoft-stock-who-is-inclined-to-fall-harder-in-case-of-correction","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126607843","content_text":"Summary\n\nObjectively, the likelihood of a significant correction in the stock market now deserves attention.\nIn the recent past, Apple and Microsoft have responded differently to a significant decline in the stock market.\nApple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.\nIn the event of a hypothetical correction, Microsoft's potential for falling is lower than Apple's.\n\nvicnt/iStock via Getty Images\nAs an introduction...\nSince the last major correction in the US stock market ended in March 2020, the Nasdaq index has risen nearly 170%:\nData by YCharts\nFor a year and a half, this is a very strong result, considering that the average annual total price return of the index over the past decade does not exceed 20%.This fact alone makes us estimate the likelihood of a new significant correction in the stock market higher.\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nIn addition, there are other factors that make us wary of the current price level of the market.\nFirst, this year there is a record inflow of liquidity to the stock market. I'm not talking about the reasons now, they are obvious. But this fact alone makes the market extremely volatile:\nSource: Bank of America\nSecond, the relative size of the US stock market has exceeded 200% of nominal GDP. In principle, this is not a fundamental limit. But it was the ultra-soft monetary policy that allowed the US stock market to reach its current record level. And most likely, in this context, a reversal is already outlined.\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nAnd finally the third. The macrocycle also allows us to expect the market to enter a phase of increased volatility and tightening of monetary policy:\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nSo, objectively, the likelihood of the next correction of the stock market at least deserves attention. And in this context, I propose to answer the question:in case of a correction, which company is inclined to fall harder - Apple (AAPL) or Microsoft (MSFT)?\nWhy Apple vs. Microsoft?\nThe decision to compare exactly these two companies was dictated by two factors.\nFirstly, these are the two largest companies in the tech sector, together accounting for more than 10% of the total capitalization of the US stock market. These companies are so large that, in principle, their dynamics alone can cause a new wave of correction:\n\nSource: VisualizedAnalytics\nSecondly, both companies pay dividends. In matters of fundamental valuation, this factor plays a significant role.\nSome Statistics\nTo begin with, let's take a look at what price dynamics both companies have shown during strong market fluctuations in the recent past.\nTo do this, I have broken the three-year span into eight periods of market movement:\nSource: TradingView, Author\nHere are the results that companies have shown in each of the periods:\nSource: Author\nAt first glance, the statistics are unambiguous:during periods of correction, the price of Microsoft tends to decrease less than that of Apple.But on the other hand, Apple has consistently performed better during periods of market growth. And in this case, the result obtained can simply be explained by the technical factors of the market behavior.\nBut in the current period of growth, both companies demonstrate approximately the same return. And therefore, here we do not find a clue to our question...\nFundamentals\nExclusively in an investment context, the price of a company's share can be viewed from two points of view.\nOn the one hand, the price reflects the present value of the company's future cash flow. On the other hand, the price is the present value of the sum of all potential dividendsthat the company will pay in the future. Let's model these prices for Apple and Microsoft. And for this I will build, respectively, the Discounted Cash Flow Model and the Dividend Discount Model.\nIn order for the models to be less subjective, I will take as a basis the average expectations of analysts regarding the revenue and EPS of the companies in the next decade.\nLet's start with Apple. Here is the calculation of the Weighted Average Cost of Capital:\nSource: Author\nNotes:\n\nIn order to calculate the market rate of return, I used values of equityriskpremium (4.72%) and the current yield of UST10 as a risk-free rate (1.33%).\nI used the current value of the three-year beta coefficient. For a terminal year, I used Beta equal to 1.\nTo calculate the Cost of Debt, I used the interest expense for 2020 divided by the average debt in 2019 and 2018.\n\nHere is the DCF model:\nSource: Author\nThe DCF-based target price for Apple's shares is about $181 (+22%).\nIn the case of Apple, when building the Dividend Discount Model it is also necessary to take into account the fact that the company continues to actively buy back:\nData by YCharts\nContinuing the current dynamics, the model assumes that by the terminal year the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 13.5 billion.\nApple spends an average of 25% of its net income on dividends. I assume that the payout ratio will remain at this level.\nHere is the Dividend Discount Model itself:\nSource: Author\nThe DDM-based target price for Apple's shares is $69 (-54%).\nNow let's take a look at Microsoft.\nHere is the calculation of the WACC:\nSource: Author\nAnd here is the DCF model:\nSource: Author\nThe DCF-based target price for Microsoft's shares is about $353 (+18%).\nMicrosoft is also actively buying back shares:\nData by YCharts\nI proceed from the assumption that the dynamics of the last two years will continue, and by the terminal year, the number of diluted shares will be reduced to 7.2 billion.\nHere is the Dividend Discount Model:\nSource: Author\nThe DDM-based target price for Microsoft's shares is $203 (-32%).\nLet's summarize:\n\nIt is worth noting that I have already been observing similar results in the case of these companies for a long time. I mean, Apple and Microsoft tend to be undervalued in terms of future cash flow, and overvalued in terms of potential dividends.\nThis suggests that during periods of market growth, investors are not particularly inclined to pay attention to dividends. Moreover, most likely dividends are perceived simply as a bonus.\nBut during periods of market correction, the present value of potential dividends is the minimum level below which it is difficult for the price to fall. And in this context, I think Microsoft is in a better position than Apple.\nBottom line\nAt the current stage of the market cycle, when the likelihood of a correction has gone beyond formal, in my opinion, investing in Microsoft is less risky compared to Apple.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881584122,"gmtCreate":1631364238866,"gmtModify":1631891561224,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Phew this is still good. Like pls.","listText":"Phew this is still good. Like pls.","text":"Phew this is still good. Like pls.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881584122","repostId":"1147045390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147045390","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631321547,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147045390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-11 08:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147045390","media":"Barrons","summary":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple  to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30%","content":"<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序中的购买提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商Epic Games提起的案件中，美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里收取30%的提成。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪器SensorTower的数据显示，2020年，苹果从App Store获得的总收入为723亿美元，产生的费用估计为217亿美元，约占苹果总收入的7%。其中包括在美国的210亿美元支出，产生约63亿美元的费用，约占年收入的2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower估计，2020年App Store中的手机游戏支出为476亿美元，产生143亿美元的费用，略低于苹果总收入的5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司Loup Capital董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)估计，App Store约占该公司利润的14%。但他认为周五裁决的风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特认为大多数应用程序开发人员将留在苹果系统内。他认为整体收入“最多”会受到2%的阻力，利润可能会受到4%的打击。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“在这些变化的第一年之后，app store的增长率将恢复正常，”他说。“最重要的是，这最多是一年的逆风，不会改变苹果未来5年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一次挫折，但鉴于苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务，最终的影响可能是可控的。他指出，苹果实际上在该案中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利：法官驳回了Epic关于App Store是非法垄断的主张。Daryanani估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到3%至4%的打击，并将这种风险描述为“舍入误差”。虽然Ives表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一喜忧参半的决定消除了该股的悬念，投资者可能会因为解决这个问题而松一口气。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这一裁决对Spotify Technology和Match Group等公司来说更多的是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌3.3%，至148.97美元，Spotify和March分别上涨0.7%和4.</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple’s Risk Is Limited<blockquote>为什么苹果的风险有限</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-11 08:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.</p><p><blockquote>周五的裁决要求苹果允许开发者为通过苹果应用商店下载的应用程序中的购买提供替代支付方式，这给其收入和利润带来了真实但有限的风险。</blockquote></p><p> In a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.</p><p><blockquote>在堡垒之夜发行商Epic Games提起的案件中，美国地区法官Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers发布了一项永久禁令，要求苹果（股票代码：AAPL）允许开发者选择在其应用程序中包含替代支付方式的链接。苹果自己的支付系统从大型开发商那里收取30%的提成。</blockquote></p><p> Data from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.</p><p><blockquote>应用追踪器SensorTower的数据显示，2020年，苹果从App Store获得的总收入为723亿美元，产生的费用估计为217亿美元，约占苹果总收入的7%。其中包括在美国的210亿美元支出，产生约63亿美元的费用，约占年收入的2%。</blockquote></p><p> SensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.</p><p><blockquote>SensorTower估计，2020年App Store中的手机游戏支出为476亿美元，产生143亿美元的费用，略低于苹果总收入的5%。</blockquote></p><p> Gene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.</p><p><blockquote>风险投资公司Loup Capital董事总经理、长期跟踪苹果的前卖方分析师吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)估计，App Store约占该公司利润的14%。但他认为周五裁决的风险有限。</blockquote></p><p> Munster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.</p><p><blockquote>蒙斯特认为大多数应用程序开发人员将留在苹果系统内。他认为整体收入“最多”会受到2%的阻力，利润可能会受到4%的打击。</blockquote></p><p> “After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”</p><p><blockquote>“在这些变化的第一年之后，app store的增长率将恢复正常，”他说。“最重要的是，这最多是一年的逆风，不会改变苹果未来5年的发展方向。”</blockquote></p><p> Evercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.</p><p><blockquote>Evercore ISI分析师Amit Daryanani在一份研究报告中表示，这一裁决对苹果来说是一次挫折，但鉴于苹果有其他方式从商店创收，包括其不断增长的店内广告业务，最终的影响可能是可控的。他指出，苹果实际上在该案中的一个更大问题上取得了胜利：法官驳回了Epic关于App Store是非法垄断的主张。Daryanani估计苹果每股收益面临的风险为2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush analyst Dan Ives told&nbsp;<i>Barron’s</i>&nbsp;he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.</p><p><blockquote>Wedbush分析师Dan Ives告诉<i>巴伦周刊</i>他认为最坏的情况是收入受到3%至4%的打击，并将这种风险描述为“舍入误差”。虽然Ives表示，华尔街原本预计苹果会全面获胜，但这一喜忧参半的决定消除了该股的悬念，投资者可能会因为解决这个问题而松一口气。</blockquote></p><p> The ruling is more a positive for companies like&nbsp;Spotify Technology&nbsp;and&nbsp;Match Group&nbsp;than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97&nbsp;on&nbsp;Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and&nbsp;4.2%, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这一裁决对Spotify Technology和Match Group等公司来说更多的是积极的，而不是对苹果的负面影响。苹果股价周五下跌3.3%，至148.97美元，Spotify和March分别上涨0.7%和4.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/apple-app-store-epic-51631304007?mod=hp_LEAD_1_B_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147045390","content_text":"Apple faces real, but limited, risk to its revenue and profits from Friday’s ruling that requires it to allow developers to offer alternative payment methods for purchases made in apps downloaded through the Apple app store.\nIn a case filed by Fortnite publisher Epic Games, U.S. District Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers issued a permanent injunction that requires Apple (ticker: AAPL) to allow developers the option to include links to alternative payment methods in their apps. Apple’s own payment system takes a 30% cut from large developers.\nData from the app tracker SensorTower shows that in calendar 2020, Apple had overall revenue from the App Store of $72.3 billion, generating an estimated $21.7 billion in fees, or about 7% of Apple’s overall revenues. That includes $21 billion in spending in the U.S., generating about $6.3 billion in fees, or about 2% of annualized revenues.\nSensorTower estimates that mobile-game spending in the App Store in calendar 2020 was $47.6 billion, generating $14.3 billion in fees, or a little under 5% of Apple’s total revenues.\nGene Munster, managing director of the venture firm Loup Capital and a former sell-side analyst with a long history of tracking Apple, estimated that the App Store accounts for about 14% of the company’s profits. But he sees limited risk from Friday’s ruling.\nMunster thinks most app developers will stay inside of the Apple system. He sees “at most” a 2% headwind to overall revenue, and a potential 4% hit to profits.\n“After the first year of these changes, app store growth rates will return to normal,” he said. “Bottom line, it’s at most a one-year headwind and does not change the big picture of where Apple is going over the next 5 years.”\nEvercore ISI analyst Amit Daryanani said in a research note that the ruling is a setback for Apple, but that the eventual impact is likely to be manageable, given Apple has alternative ways to generate revenue from the store, including its growing in-store ad business. And he noted that Apple actually got a win on a bigger issue in the case: The judge rejected Epic’s assertion that the App Store is an illegal monopoly. Daryanani estimated the risk to Apple’s per-share earnings at 2% to 4%.\nWedbush analyst Dan Ives told Barron’s he thinks the worst-case scenario is a 3% to 4% hit to revenues, describing the risk as a “rounding error.” While Ives said the Street had expected an across-the-board win for Apple, the mixed decision removes an overhang on the stock and that investors are likely relieved to put the issue to rest.\nThe ruling is more a positive for companies like Spotify Technology and Match Group than it is a negative for Apple, he said. Apple stock fell 3.3% to $148.97 on Friday, while Spotify and March gained 0.7% and 4.2%, respectively.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":342,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804897344,"gmtCreate":1627948920688,"gmtModify":1633755056924,"author":{"id":"4089499026613770","authorId":"4089499026613770","name":"JeremyChuax","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1f1ede120de2da723e4456d7fdcce55","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089499026613770","idStr":"4089499026613770"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804897344","repostId":"2156114224","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}