ewangteoh的个人主页 - 老虎社区

ewangteoh

ewangteoh

凡走过必留下痕迹

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2021-11-24

$易纬集团(03893)$[财迷] [财迷] [财迷] 赚钱了

2021-10-15

$奥星生命科技(06118)$最后通牒，下星期三跌跌不休，要跑的请赶快，谢谢。

2021-12-07

$易纬集团(03893)$等待好戏

2021-09-24

$奥星生命科技(06118)$典型老千股，大家注意。会叫大家继续买升，还写一大堆理论叫你们买。最重要的是不断叫你发买入股证据和持仓股票证据给他们，这样他们才可以和上头抽佣金。大家小心！近期一定暴跌。

2021-10-13

$Camber Energy(CEI)$亏死了

2021-07-23

tech led good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-03

$网上车市(01490)$这个最近一直发放利好消息，大家一起来看好戏。100%准割韭菜股。已经在各大媒体、群聊里怂恿新手们上车，想看戏的可以买好位置跟着一起坐过山车！yeah！[捂嘴] [捂嘴]

2021-11-30

$AeroClean Technologies, Inc.(AERC)$可惜不能做空啊

2021-11-22

$易纬集团(03893)$本周老千股心脏够强的可以进来玩玩，保证天天有惊喜。

2021-09-08

如果任何社交平台上认识的人或者“老师”叫你买，你千万别买啊！等着被收割！please do not buy if anyone on tinder or any other social apps asks you to buy this!

2021-07-22

Like it

FFIE soared over 40% in premarket trading

2021-09-14

$Tl Natural Gas(08536)$来来看戏，分分合合股，然后推高高，放好消息，准备破10元，然后干净利落。

2021-08-14

想念特朗普了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-16

$易纬集团(03893)$老千股还会继续上升📈，真是意想不到，成绩还好过我真金白银买的 $阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$[捂脸]

2021-11-24

$易纬集团(03893)$快上车啊，买啊！有买有高楼住。包你下辈子没烦恼钱应该怎么花。

2021-12-23

$东方汇财证券(08001)$昨天股票老师叫我买的。怎么办？他说要和证卷会举报。我的钱💰啊。

2021-12-17

$易纬集团(03893)$我决定卖了，大家快下车，赚少少就好。

2021-09-22

所以结论是恒大不是问题，有钱能解决的问题就不是问题了。

中国不存在“雷曼时刻”！恒大与雷曼的四点不同

2021-07-23

like it

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-25

$奥星生命科技(06118)$我都忘记上过这船，老师明明说这股可以去40的，点解？！老师说一定是有人泄密所以导致股价大跌，会帮我讨回公道。有老师真是好。

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23:13</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>11月9日，特斯拉盘初一度跌超10%，创最近八个月最大单日跌幅，延续上日收跌逾4.8%的遭遇，刷新日低至1035.59美元。</p>\n<p>该公司CEO马斯克（又称“马一龙”）周末就出售10%持股征求网友意见，并获得“多数支持”。道琼斯新闻报道称，早在马斯克周末透露“套现意图”之前，其弟弟Kimbal Musk就已经抛售了大约1.1亿美元的特斯拉股票期权。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1428a2db45cba9e0d341594ae3d8adbc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102890127","content_text":"11月9日，特斯拉盘初一度跌超10%，创最近八个月最大单日跌幅，延续上日收跌逾4.8%的遭遇，刷新日低至1035.59美元。\n该公司CEO马斯克（又称“马一龙”）周末就出售10%持股征求网友意见，并获得“多数支持”。道琼斯新闻报道称，早在马斯克周末透露“套现意图”之前，其弟弟Kimbal Musk就已经抛售了大约1.1亿美元的特斯拉股票期权。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842907126,"gmtCreate":1636123333118,"gmtModify":1636123538860,"author":{"id":"4089524325627800","authorId":"4089524325627800","name":"ewangteoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1a4685095869993dc85e75987db1c0","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089524325627800","authorIdStr":"4089524325627800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"插水啊","listText":"插水啊","text":"插水啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842907126","repostId":"1184859627","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184859627","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1636122710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184859627?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 22:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Workhorse盘中跳水，报道称该公司正遭美司法部调查","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184859627","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"周五，电动汽车初创公司Workhorse盘中跳水，现跌8%，有报道称该公司正在接受美国司法部的调查。","content":"<p>周五，电动汽车初创公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WKHS\">Workhorse</a>盘中跳水，现跌8%，有报道称该公司正在接受美国司法部的调查。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7927dfaa2d5c562ddbfd74e936d8784c\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Workhorse盘中跳水，报道称该公司正遭美司法部调查</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASX\">$日月光半导体(ASX)$</a>半导体都在上升趋势，这家好像还没启动引擎。","text":"$日月光半导体(ASX)$半导体都在上升趋势，这家好像还没启动引擎。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856320770","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858229840,"gmtCreate":1635062025206,"gmtModify":1635062025546,"author":{"id":"4089524325627800","authorId":"4089524325627800","name":"ewangteoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1a4685095869993dc85e75987db1c0","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089524325627800","authorIdStr":"4089524325627800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"巨大潜力","listText":"巨大潜力","text":"巨大潜力","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858229840","repostId":"1121651703","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121651703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1635060710,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121651703?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-24 15:31","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"王健林，再来一局","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121651703","media":"凤凰WEEKLY地产","summary":"“万达商管要在2023年11月前上市”。\n创业以来，王健林打过无数的赌，2018年的这个，到现在很多人还记得。\n如今，这个诺言似乎要提前兑现了。\n10月21日晚间，珠海万达商业管理在港交所递交招股书。","content":"<p>“万达商管要在2023年11月前上市”。</p>\n<p>创业以来，王健林打过无数的赌，2018年的这个，到现在很多人还记得。</p>\n<p>如今，这个诺言似乎要提前兑现了。</p>\n<p>10月21日晚间，珠海万达商业管理在港交所递交招股书。</p>\n<p>王健林，要回来了。380个商业广场，是他重整旗鼓回归资本市场的新赌注。</p>\n<p><b>加速键</b></p>\n<p>按下加速键，是从8月开始。</p>\n<p>8月2日，国际评级机构惠誉确认大连万达商业管理集团评级为BB+，万达商业地产（香港）为BB，展望为稳定。其中，万达商管独立信用状况为BBB+，但鉴于母公司万达集团的杠杆率较高，惠誉评定万达商管为BB+，系信用等级中的中间等级。</p>\n<p>当时业内有分析，惠誉的评级体现了资本市场对万达商业的积极态度，未来展望的“稳定”定位，可以看做是万达商管下半场的强力背书。</p>\n<p>同一天，大连万达商管宣布肖广瑞辞去公司总裁职务，另聘老将任齐界担任公司总裁，也被外界解读为为赴港上市作准备。“珠海万达商管作为上市主体，肖广瑞不能同时兼任母公司总裁，作为王健林的肱股老臣，齐界被看做是有力的人选。”分析人士对媒体称。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/288a10e4e6eafd6ab39edd167aef0e09\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"624\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>彼时已有传言，万达商管计划提交IPO申请的时间是8月，融资规模约为30亿-40亿美元，承销商为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CS\">瑞士信贷</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>。</p>\n<p>不久后，传言成真。</p>\n<p>8月20日，证监会披露了珠海万达商管《境外首次公开发行股份（包括普通股、优先股等各类股票及股票的派生形式）审批》材料。两个月后，珠海万达商管的境外上市申请获得了受理。</p>\n<p>进入9月份，据媒体报道，17日万达商管获得一笔价值468亿港元的Pre-IPO融资，投资方包括PAG太盟集团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02007\">碧桂园</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>、蚂蚁金服。</p>\n<p>上半年，离开持续近6年的A股IPO队伍后，“遗憾”、“离场”、“失落”成为各大新闻头条标题中放在万达商管之前的字眼。</p>\n<p>港交所的这份招股书，让这种悲情的气氛，彻底打破。</p>\n<p><b>一波三折</b></p>\n<p>距离万达商管上一次从港交所退市，正好是五年。</p>\n<p>2014年年末，万达商管前身万达商业登陆港交所，成为当年港股规模最大的IPO。但彼时万达商业的股价非常低迷，其每股收益6.6元人民币，每股净资产39.8元人民币。</p>\n<p>上市不到两年，2016年9月，万达商业退市了。</p>\n<p>王健林在央视《对话》节目中表示，“不能对不起我的朋友和股东，所以我们一定要私有化”，他认为，公司价值被低估了。</p>\n<p>在王健林看来，香港市场对于万达商业的认可度并不高，投资者并不看好，万达在香港的股市远没有达到他的预期，这也使王健林从香港退市后，随即启动了内地IPO。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/719ae0b6a10f51f4d4a21a220287d054\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"899\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>此后，万达商业开始以商场、酒店、文旅等与房地产关系密切的项目为抓手，进行“轻资产化”，甚至将万达商业地产股份有限公司更名为万达商业管理集团，并宣布放弃房地产开发，进行商业管理运营。</p>\n<p>虽然万达主动求变、全面转型的心“日月可鉴”，上市的期待值也是满满，但天不遂人愿。</p>\n<p>2016年开始，整个房地产行业的语境发生变化，多家已经提交材料的企业进入了漫长的IPO等待的队伍，这支队伍里，有恒大，也有富力。</p>\n<p>最终在今年3月，持续了5年之久的IPO排队路戛然而止，万达商管宣布撤回上市申请。</p>\n<p>万达官方回应称，此举是从公司战略发展角度出发，对公司资产进行重组，以便更好在境内外平台上市。</p>\n<p>彼时也有分析称，随着内地物业管理公司和商业管理公司掀起赴港IPO热潮，尤其是有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01209\">华润万象生活</a>上市募资120亿港元、市值近1200亿的“榜样力量”，加速了万达商管回归香港资本市场的脚步。</p>\n<p>撤回A股上市申请5天后，答案好像出来了。</p>\n<p>万达商管集团与珠海市政府签署协议，将重组后的万达轻资产商管公司落户珠海横琴，同时珠海国资委出资30亿战投入股万达轻资产商管公司。</p>\n<p>珠海万达商业管理集团股份有限公司（珠海万达商管），被大众看做是万达系最年轻的轻资产平台。</p>\n<p>万达方面称，此次万达商业要彻底轻资产化，进行轻资产重组之后的万达商业，或会受到资本市场青睐。</p>\n<p>有人做出了这样的判断，王建林选择了主动求变，而不是被动等待。</p>\n<p><b>避“重”就“轻”</b></p>\n<p>如今的万达商管，是多年前万达对自己进行的一次大手术的产物。</p>\n<p>2017年，银监会要求排查海外投资较猛在银行敞口较大的民营企业集团，外界的目光集中在大举进行海外娱乐资产投资的万达。同年，万达曝出资金链危机。也就是从这时起，万达商管，这个王健林口中的“核心企业”开始了转型轻资产来断臂求生的漫长道路。</p>\n<p>为了从重资产转型轻资产从而降低杠杆，万达显示出壮士断腕的决心。2017年7月，万达商业将77个酒店卖给了富力，又将13个文旅项目卖给了融创，两项交易换了637.5亿元。</p>\n<p>海外项目也开始陆续清空，据统计，自2018年起，万达已通过出手海外资产套现206.96亿元。其中，今年5月，万达接近清空其在美国最大连锁电影院运营商同时也是万达在海外的第一笔项目AMC的股权，累计回笼资金14.76亿美元。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/745064063847e0cd092e55e4a7d2bfcb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>2018年1月，万达商业更名为万达商管集团，宣布今后不再进行房地产开发，成为纯粹的商业管理运营企业，并将于未来1到2年逐渐消化掉房地产业务。</p>\n<p>同年，万达地产集团成立。此后，万达商管的地产开发项目逐渐转移到了万达地产集团里。2019年底，万达商管集团完成房地产剥离，至此成为了纯粹的商业运营管理企业。</p>\n<p><b>前路</b></p>\n<p>今年8月公开的评级中，惠誉预计，2021年万达商业的经常性收入将增长18%至420亿元，主要原因是其可出租楼面面积预计将扩大11%，且2021年将比2020年多一个月租金。</p>\n<p>同时也指出，尽管今年受政策影响，信贷环境有所减弱，但万达商业已对2021年7月底前到期的全部367亿元人民币在岸债券进行了再融资或偿还。</p>\n<p>招股书显示，2021年上半年，珠海万达商管收入约106.36亿元，期内溢利约6.56亿元。截至2021年6月30日，珠海万达商管管理380个商业广场，其中独立第三方商业广场数量106个，占总在管商业广场数量的27.9%，在管建筑面积共5420万平方米。</p>\n<p>财务方面，截至2021年6月30日，珠海万达商管的负债总额约155.35亿元，流动比率为1.18，资产负债率0.80。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6c56a5bdd19f243002b530230c8078f\" tg-width=\"595\" tg-height=\"553\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>业内称，随着万达商业采用轻资产模式购物中心的增多，其资本支出需求也将减少。而且现阶段看来，对于转型为轻资产运营公司的万达商管，负债率在合理的范围内。如果成功上市，储备资金也将更加雄厚，可支撑公司长期发展。</p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BEKE\">贝壳</a>研究院商业地产分析师郑中认为，珠海万达商管定位全轻资产模式，并通过较强的项目拓展能力积累了较为可观的第三方商管项目；对于独立第三方项目，通过项目净收益分成，与第三方业主的利益形成强绑定，可持续性较高。郑中认为，珠海万达商管上市后，将会为母公司带来更多机遇。</p>\n<p>但前路似乎很难全是鲜花。</p>\n<p>汇生国际融资总裁黄立冲对《凤凰WEEKLY地产》表示，商业地产板块房地产还是不济市场大背景不太乐观，一是疫情影响，二是政策方面国家收紧房地产融资。“2014年的恒指也是在26000点左右，7年过去了恒生指数还在原位，但是成分股已经换成了很多互联网类别，预计前景比以前更加差”。</p>\n<p>对于万达商管上市后的表现，黄立冲表示，不排除万达商业会重新遭遇此前的估值落差，而且轻资产平台倚仗的进行品牌输出的品牌并非商业地产经营成功的决定性因素。“如果当年的气氛能做到的估值令王健林不满意，除非7年过后其期待值大幅调整了，否则照样更加不满意。”</p>","source":"lsy1635060731697","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>王健林，再来一局</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n王健林，再来一局\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-10-24 15:31 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KL9CHDxE1SeqID52_rNdPQ><strong>凤凰WEEKLY地产</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“万达商管要在2023年11月前上市”。\n创业以来，王健林打过无数的赌，2018年的这个，到现在很多人还记得。\n如今，这个诺言似乎要提前兑现了。\n10月21日晚间，珠海万达商业管理在港交所递交招股书。\n王健林，要回来了。380个商业广场，是他重整旗鼓回归资本市场的新赌注。\n加速键\n按下加速键，是从8月开始。\n8月2日，国际评级机构惠誉确认大连万达商业管理集团评级为BB+，万达商业地产（香港）为BB...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KL9CHDxE1SeqID52_rNdPQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3f5e344b9bcf5749c9f8e15e2dd9c15","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/KL9CHDxE1SeqID52_rNdPQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121651703","content_text":"“万达商管要在2023年11月前上市”。\n创业以来，王健林打过无数的赌，2018年的这个，到现在很多人还记得。\n如今，这个诺言似乎要提前兑现了。\n10月21日晚间，珠海万达商业管理在港交所递交招股书。\n王健林，要回来了。380个商业广场，是他重整旗鼓回归资本市场的新赌注。\n加速键\n按下加速键，是从8月开始。\n8月2日，国际评级机构惠誉确认大连万达商业管理集团评级为BB+，万达商业地产（香港）为BB，展望为稳定。其中，万达商管独立信用状况为BBB+，但鉴于母公司万达集团的杠杆率较高，惠誉评定万达商管为BB+，系信用等级中的中间等级。\n当时业内有分析，惠誉的评级体现了资本市场对万达商业的积极态度，未来展望的“稳定”定位，可以看做是万达商管下半场的强力背书。\n同一天，大连万达商管宣布肖广瑞辞去公司总裁职务，另聘老将任齐界担任公司总裁，也被外界解读为为赴港上市作准备。“珠海万达商管作为上市主体，肖广瑞不能同时兼任母公司总裁，作为王健林的肱股老臣，齐界被看做是有力的人选。”分析人士对媒体称。\n\n彼时已有传言，万达商管计划提交IPO申请的时间是8月，融资规模约为30亿-40亿美元，承销商为中信证券、瑞士信贷和摩根大通。\n不久后，传言成真。\n8月20日，证监会披露了珠海万达商管《境外首次公开发行股份（包括普通股、优先股等各类股票及股票的派生形式）审批》材料。两个月后，珠海万达商管的境外上市申请获得了受理。\n进入9月份，据媒体报道，17日万达商管获得一笔价值468亿港元的Pre-IPO融资，投资方包括PAG太盟集团、碧桂园、腾讯、蚂蚁金服。\n上半年，离开持续近6年的A股IPO队伍后，“遗憾”、“离场”、“失落”成为各大新闻头条标题中放在万达商管之前的字眼。\n港交所的这份招股书，让这种悲情的气氛，彻底打破。\n一波三折\n距离万达商管上一次从港交所退市，正好是五年。\n2014年年末，万达商管前身万达商业登陆港交所，成为当年港股规模最大的IPO。但彼时万达商业的股价非常低迷，其每股收益6.6元人民币，每股净资产39.8元人民币。\n上市不到两年，2016年9月，万达商业退市了。\n王健林在央视《对话》节目中表示，“不能对不起我的朋友和股东，所以我们一定要私有化”，他认为，公司价值被低估了。\n在王健林看来，香港市场对于万达商业的认可度并不高，投资者并不看好，万达在香港的股市远没有达到他的预期，这也使王健林从香港退市后，随即启动了内地IPO。\n\n此后，万达商业开始以商场、酒店、文旅等与房地产关系密切的项目为抓手，进行“轻资产化”，甚至将万达商业地产股份有限公司更名为万达商业管理集团，并宣布放弃房地产开发，进行商业管理运营。\n虽然万达主动求变、全面转型的心“日月可鉴”，上市的期待值也是满满，但天不遂人愿。\n2016年开始，整个房地产行业的语境发生变化，多家已经提交材料的企业进入了漫长的IPO等待的队伍，这支队伍里，有恒大，也有富力。\n最终在今年3月，持续了5年之久的IPO排队路戛然而止，万达商管宣布撤回上市申请。\n万达官方回应称，此举是从公司战略发展角度出发，对公司资产进行重组，以便更好在境内外平台上市。\n彼时也有分析称，随着内地物业管理公司和商业管理公司掀起赴港IPO热潮，尤其是有华润万象生活上市募资120亿港元、市值近1200亿的“榜样力量”，加速了万达商管回归香港资本市场的脚步。\n撤回A股上市申请5天后，答案好像出来了。\n万达商管集团与珠海市政府签署协议，将重组后的万达轻资产商管公司落户珠海横琴，同时珠海国资委出资30亿战投入股万达轻资产商管公司。\n珠海万达商业管理集团股份有限公司（珠海万达商管），被大众看做是万达系最年轻的轻资产平台。\n万达方面称，此次万达商业要彻底轻资产化，进行轻资产重组之后的万达商业，或会受到资本市场青睐。\n有人做出了这样的判断，王建林选择了主动求变，而不是被动等待。\n避“重”就“轻”\n如今的万达商管，是多年前万达对自己进行的一次大手术的产物。\n2017年，银监会要求排查海外投资较猛在银行敞口较大的民营企业集团，外界的目光集中在大举进行海外娱乐资产投资的万达。同年，万达曝出资金链危机。也就是从这时起，万达商管，这个王健林口中的“核心企业”开始了转型轻资产来断臂求生的漫长道路。\n为了从重资产转型轻资产从而降低杠杆，万达显示出壮士断腕的决心。2017年7月，万达商业将77个酒店卖给了富力，又将13个文旅项目卖给了融创，两项交易换了637.5亿元。\n海外项目也开始陆续清空，据统计，自2018年起，万达已通过出手海外资产套现206.96亿元。其中，今年5月，万达接近清空其在美国最大连锁电影院运营商同时也是万达在海外的第一笔项目AMC的股权，累计回笼资金14.76亿美元。\n\n2018年1月，万达商业更名为万达商管集团，宣布今后不再进行房地产开发，成为纯粹的商业管理运营企业，并将于未来1到2年逐渐消化掉房地产业务。\n同年，万达地产集团成立。此后，万达商管的地产开发项目逐渐转移到了万达地产集团里。2019年底，万达商管集团完成房地产剥离，至此成为了纯粹的商业运营管理企业。\n前路\n今年8月公开的评级中，惠誉预计，2021年万达商业的经常性收入将增长18%至420亿元，主要原因是其可出租楼面面积预计将扩大11%，且2021年将比2020年多一个月租金。\n同时也指出，尽管今年受政策影响，信贷环境有所减弱，但万达商业已对2021年7月底前到期的全部367亿元人民币在岸债券进行了再融资或偿还。\n招股书显示，2021年上半年，珠海万达商管收入约106.36亿元，期内溢利约6.56亿元。截至2021年6月30日，珠海万达商管管理380个商业广场，其中独立第三方商业广场数量106个，占总在管商业广场数量的27.9%，在管建筑面积共5420万平方米。\n财务方面，截至2021年6月30日，珠海万达商管的负债总额约155.35亿元，流动比率为1.18，资产负债率0.80。\n\n业内称，随着万达商业采用轻资产模式购物中心的增多，其资本支出需求也将减少。而且现阶段看来，对于转型为轻资产运营公司的万达商管，负债率在合理的范围内。如果成功上市，储备资金也将更加雄厚，可支撑公司长期发展。\n贝壳研究院商业地产分析师郑中认为，珠海万达商管定位全轻资产模式，并通过较强的项目拓展能力积累了较为可观的第三方商管项目；对于独立第三方项目，通过项目净收益分成，与第三方业主的利益形成强绑定，可持续性较高。郑中认为，珠海万达商管上市后，将会为母公司带来更多机遇。\n但前路似乎很难全是鲜花。\n汇生国际融资总裁黄立冲对《凤凰WEEKLY地产》表示，商业地产板块房地产还是不济市场大背景不太乐观，一是疫情影响，二是政策方面国家收紧房地产融资。“2014年的恒指也是在26000点左右，7年过去了恒生指数还在原位，但是成分股已经换成了很多互联网类别，预计前景比以前更加差”。\n对于万达商管上市后的表现，黄立冲表示，不排除万达商业会重新遭遇此前的估值落差，而且轻资产平台倚仗的进行品牌输出的品牌并非商业地产经营成功的决定性因素。“如果当年的气氛能做到的估值令王健林不满意，除非7年过后其期待值大幅调整了，否则照样更加不满意。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":874192741,"gmtCreate":1637739875186,"gmtModify":1637739875379,"author":{"id":"4089524325627800","authorId":"4089524325627800","name":"ewangteoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1a4685095869993dc85e75987db1c0","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089524325627800","authorIdStr":"4089524325627800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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social apps asks you to buy this!","text":"如果任何社交平台上认识的人或者“老师”叫你买，你千万别买啊！等着被收割！please do not buy if anyone on tinder or any other social apps asks you to buy this!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880723264","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":172154668,"gmtCreate":1626945928154,"gmtModify":1631893548061,"author":{"id":"4089524325627800","authorId":"4089524325627800","name":"ewangteoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1a4685095869993dc85e75987db1c0","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089524325627800","authorIdStr":"4089524325627800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like it&nbsp;","listText":"Like it&nbsp;","text":"Like it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172154668","repostId":"1125051940","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125051940","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626944290,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1125051940?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 16:58","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FFIE soared over 40% in premarket trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125051940","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(July 22) Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. soared over 40% in premarket trading.\nProperty So","content":"<p>(July 22)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc.</a> soared over 40% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6f15a08da725792076dbf2505199c3e\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSAC\">Property Solutions Acquisition Corp</a> , an SPAC, has announced that its shareholders approved its acquisition of mobility technology developer Faraday Future among ten proposals.</p>\n<p>In addition, with the deadline for redemptions passed and 99.91% of funds remaining in the SPAC's trust account, Faraday Future will receive gross proceeds of around $1B at the time of the business combination.</p>\n<p>The transaction is set to close on or around July 21, 2021, following which the SPAC will be renamed Faraday Future <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INS\">Intelligent</a> Electric. Its common stock and warrants will begin trading under the tickers 'FFIE' and 'FFIE.WS' respectively on the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> Global Exchange on or about July 22, 2021.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FFIE soared over 40% in premarket trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFFIE soared over 40% in premarket trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-07-22 16:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(July 22)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FFIE\">Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc.</a> soared over 40% in premarket trading.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6f15a08da725792076dbf2505199c3e\" tg-width=\"704\" tg-height=\"486\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PSAC\">Property Solutions Acquisition Corp</a> , an SPAC, has announced that its shareholders approved its acquisition of mobility technology developer Faraday Future among ten proposals.</p>\n<p>In addition, with the deadline for redemptions passed and 99.91% of funds remaining in the SPAC's trust account, Faraday Future will receive gross proceeds of around $1B at the time of the business combination.</p>\n<p>The transaction is set to close on or around July 21, 2021, following which the SPAC will be renamed Faraday Future <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INS\">Intelligent</a> Electric. Its common stock and warrants will begin trading under the tickers 'FFIE' and 'FFIE.WS' respectively on the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> Global Exchange on or about July 22, 2021.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125051940","content_text":"(July 22) Faraday Future Intelligent Electric Inc. soared over 40% in premarket trading.\nProperty Solutions Acquisition Corp , an SPAC, has announced that its shareholders approved its acquisition of mobility technology developer Faraday Future among ten proposals.\nIn addition, with the deadline for redemptions passed and 99.91% of funds remaining in the SPAC's trust account, Faraday Future will receive gross proceeds of around $1B at the time of the business combination.\nThe transaction is set to close on or around July 21, 2021, following which the SPAC will be renamed Faraday Future Intelligent Electric. 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03893\">$易纬集团(03893)$</a>老千股还会继续上升📈，真是意想不到，成绩还好过我真金白银买的&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03893\">$易纬集团(03893)$</a>老千股还会继续上升📈，真是意想不到，成绩还好过我真金白银买的&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$</a>[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"$易纬集团(03893)$老千股还会继续上升📈，真是意想不到，成绩还好过我真金白银买的 $阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$[捂脸]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/428888720f155a7293b0ba6ff691d2b5","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690961443","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874951378,"gmtCreate":1637722686047,"gmtModify":1637722686199,"author":{"id":"4089524325627800","authorId":"4089524325627800","name":"ewangteoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1a4685095869993dc85e75987db1c0","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089524325627800","authorIdStr":"4089524325627800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03893\">$易纬集团(03893)$</a>快上车啊，买啊！有买有高楼住。包你下辈子没烦恼钱应该怎么花。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03893\">$易纬集团(03893)$</a>快上车啊，买啊！有买有高楼住。包你下辈子没烦恼钱应该怎么花。","text":"$易纬集团(03893)$快上车啊，买啊！有买有高楼住。包你下辈子没烦恼钱应该怎么花。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eefa115ac10a27a3c2230eb7f3a23f32","width":"3000","height":"4000"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874951378","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691480073,"gmtCreate":1640227360216,"gmtModify":1640227360659,"author":{"id":"4089524325627800","authorId":"4089524325627800","name":"ewangteoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1a4685095869993dc85e75987db1c0","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089524325627800","authorIdStr":"4089524325627800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08001\">$东方汇财证券(08001)$</a>昨天股票老师叫我买的。怎么办？他说要和证卷会举报。我的钱💰啊。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/08001\">$东方汇财证券(08001)$</a>昨天股票老师叫我买的。怎么办？他说要和证卷会举报。我的钱💰啊。","text":"$东方汇财证券(08001)$昨天股票老师叫我买的。怎么办？他说要和证卷会举报。我的钱💰啊。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccd84cb578216e7f0a848f8738cdb144","width":"3000","height":"4000"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691480073","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690779528,"gmtCreate":1639714309100,"gmtModify":1639714309478,"author":{"id":"4089524325627800","authorId":"4089524325627800","name":"ewangteoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1a4685095869993dc85e75987db1c0","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089524325627800","authorIdStr":"4089524325627800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03893\">$易纬集团(03893)$</a>我决定卖了，大家快下车，赚少少就好。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03893\">$易纬集团(03893)$</a>我决定卖了，大家快下车，赚少少就好。","text":"$易纬集团(03893)$我决定卖了，大家快下车，赚少少就好。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690779528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":869679684,"gmtCreate":1632285921748,"gmtModify":1632801479924,"author":{"id":"4089524325627800","authorId":"4089524325627800","name":"ewangteoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1a4685095869993dc85e75987db1c0","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089524325627800","authorIdStr":"4089524325627800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"所以结论是恒大不是问题，有钱能解决的问题就不是问题了。","listText":"所以结论是恒大不是问题，有钱能解决的问题就不是问题了。","text":"所以结论是恒大不是问题，有钱能解决的问题就不是问题了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869679684","repostId":"1138740934","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138740934","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632280942,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138740934?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-22 11:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"中国不存在“雷曼时刻”！恒大与雷曼的四点不同","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138740934","media":"陈曦固收研究","summary":"近期，不少观点将恒大类比为雷曼，中秋节期间，港股大跌，地产、银行领跌。\n表面上看，恒大与雷曼有很多相似之处：\n第一，都与房地产相关，特别是出事之前的底层逻辑是房价能持续上涨。只有房价上涨，才能消化加杠","content":"<p>近期，不少观点将恒大类比为雷曼，中秋节期间，港股大跌，地产、银行领跌。</p>\n<p><b>表面上看，恒大与雷曼有很多相似之处：</b></p>\n<p><b>第一，都与房地产相关</b>，特别是出事之前的底层逻辑是房价能持续上涨。只有房价上涨，才能消化加杠杆的负债。而美国次贷危机前以及中国过去这些年确实存在房价的持续上涨。</p>\n<p><b>第二，都是债务危机</b>。债务危机比“股灾”要严重的多，因为资产是软的，债务是硬的，很容易出现资产负债表的破坏。从国际经验看，“股灾”的影响往往较小，例如2000年美国互联网泡沫，中国2015年股市异动，而债务危机的影响则要大得多，例如98年东南亚外债危机，08年美国次贷危机等。</p>\n<p><b>第三，都表现出传染性</b>。雷曼破产导致一系列连锁反应，恒大出事导致银行对房地产企业融资收缩，已经多家地方房企出现问题。</p>\n<p>雷曼时刻是美国次贷危机的重要加速点，雷曼倒掉之后，美国陷入全面的危机之中。</p>\n<p><b>既然恒大与雷曼有诸多相似，是否意味着中国会重演2008年的美国？</b></p>\n<p><b>我们认为，中国重演美国2008年的可能性基本为零。</b></p>\n<p><b>我们认为，恒大与雷曼有以下本质差别：</b></p>\n<p><b>第一，雷曼背后是居民加杠杆，而恒大背后是地产企业加杠杆，对经济的影响完全不同。</b>08年美国房价下跌，居民被迫去杠杆，进而导致大量居民的资产负债表崩溃，消费能力急剧下降，是地产危机转为经济危机的根源；恒大背后是房地产企业加杠杆，中国的居民加杠杆并不严重。</p>\n<p>中国居民尽管也加杠杆买房，但是中国有严格的首付比例等限制，与美国次贷完全不可同日而语，<b>中国不存在居民资产负债表崩溃的可能。</b></p>\n<p><b>第二，雷曼时刻之后的关键是房价崩盘式下跌，导致抵押品快速贬值，继而出现全面危机；中国看不到房价断崖式下行的可能。</b>对于房价上涨压力大的地区，确实政策非常严格，而对于房价存在下跌压力的地区，则已经开始出台限制房价下跌政策。中国因城施策的背景下，房价未来大概率进入涨跌均有限的波动状态，甚至是冻结状态，不会触发抵押品贬值危机。<b>中国出问题仅限于房企，而不是押品，</b>这是与美国2008年的另一大关键区别。</p>\n<p><b>第三，中国有成熟的大型企业债务问题处置经验，</b>包商、华融、明天、安邦、海航等体量都与恒大可比，甚至有的比恒大更大，处置方式基本都是国家接管、业务拆分、切断传染。其中，能够避免雷曼重演的关键是：切断传染。我们认为即使真有个别中国的房企资不抵债，也能通过政府介入切断传染性（不是政府兜底，而是切断传染）。</p>\n<p><b>第四，银行是缓冲/加速债务危机的关键环节，中国的银行大多数具有国企背景，或者对监管、对政府的响应要比美国强得多。</b>如果按照市场化主体的行为逻辑，很容易出现挤兑（看房企出问题，于是全面抽贷断贷），而中国的银行不存在这个问题。在2020年3-4月疫情高峰、谁也看不清企业能否活下去的时候，中国的银行体系可以大量放贷，还是放中长期贷、甚至信用贷，足以表明中国的银行与美国的银行有巨大差异。</p>\n<p><b>综上所述，我们认为，恒大并不是中国版雷曼，两者差异非常大。如果真的有大型房企资不抵债，则更类似之前的个别大型企业的定点爆破，而不会出现类似美国2008年的风险传染。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于中国经济和资本市场，我们认为：</b></p>\n<p><b>1、房地产调控大方向不会变化</b>，2020疫情后-2021年上半年，房地产是中国经济的重要支撑，而现在开始，<b>房地产确实正在变成对经济的拖累。</b></p>\n<p>2、<b>中国房地产行业不可能消失</b>，即使是发达国家，房地产业仍然占有重要位置，因此，<b>如果房地产行业整体错杀，特别是如果符合三道红线的优质房企被错杀，则其股、债均存在投资机会。</b></p>\n<p><b>3、对于股市的影响，与美国2008年不可同日而语。</b>港股更多的受到外资影响，不了解中国国情，外资误判是正常的；<b>而如果中国股市出现类似港股的下跌，则是买入机会。</b></p>\n<p><b>4、对于债券市场</b>，雷曼时刻之后，美债收益率上行，有观点认为中国可能会出现类似情况，这基本属于误读。美国当年是真的出现了“现金为王”的情况，避险避到只认现金，而中国距离那一步实在是十万八千里。我们认为，中国出现类似美国当年的避险情绪很难，<b>就算真的出现避险，中国央行也会保证流动性</b>，类似包商、永煤之后，导致的是国债收益率下行而不是上行。</p>\n<p><b>我们认为，恒大对中国债市的主要影响是两方面：</b></p>\n<p><b>一是寻找优质房企的地产债错杀机会；</b></p>\n<p><b>二是确认调控对于房地产投资的影响</b>，这将导致经济下行压力加大，在内需本就不足的情况下，<b>货币宽松可能性上升</b>（我们维持10-11月存在降息可能）<b>。</b></p>\n<p><b>中国不存在“雷曼时刻”，维持3月以来提出的“债牛已至”观点不变，同时提示低估值蓝筹股的投资机会。</b></p>","source":"lsy1627443742494","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国不存在“雷曼时刻”！恒大与雷曼的四点不同\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-22 11:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.ifeng.com/c/89jwfdVukxk><strong>陈曦固收研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近期，不少观点将恒大类比为雷曼，中秋节期间，港股大跌，地产、银行领跌。\n表面上看，恒大与雷曼有很多相似之处：\n第一，都与房地产相关，特别是出事之前的底层逻辑是房价能持续上涨。只有房价上涨，才能消化加杠杆的负债。而美国次贷危机前以及中国过去这些年确实存在房价的持续上涨。\n第二，都是债务危机。债务危机比“股灾”要严重的多，因为资产是软的，债务是硬的，很容易出现资产负债表的破坏。从国际经验看，“股灾”的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/89jwfdVukxk\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/89jwfdVukxk","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138740934","content_text":"近期，不少观点将恒大类比为雷曼，中秋节期间，港股大跌，地产、银行领跌。\n表面上看，恒大与雷曼有很多相似之处：\n第一，都与房地产相关，特别是出事之前的底层逻辑是房价能持续上涨。只有房价上涨，才能消化加杠杆的负债。而美国次贷危机前以及中国过去这些年确实存在房价的持续上涨。\n第二，都是债务危机。债务危机比“股灾”要严重的多，因为资产是软的，债务是硬的，很容易出现资产负债表的破坏。从国际经验看，“股灾”的影响往往较小，例如2000年美国互联网泡沫，中国2015年股市异动，而债务危机的影响则要大得多，例如98年东南亚外债危机，08年美国次贷危机等。\n第三，都表现出传染性。雷曼破产导致一系列连锁反应，恒大出事导致银行对房地产企业融资收缩，已经多家地方房企出现问题。\n雷曼时刻是美国次贷危机的重要加速点，雷曼倒掉之后，美国陷入全面的危机之中。\n既然恒大与雷曼有诸多相似，是否意味着中国会重演2008年的美国？\n我们认为，中国重演美国2008年的可能性基本为零。\n我们认为，恒大与雷曼有以下本质差别：\n第一，雷曼背后是居民加杠杆，而恒大背后是地产企业加杠杆，对经济的影响完全不同。08年美国房价下跌，居民被迫去杠杆，进而导致大量居民的资产负债表崩溃，消费能力急剧下降，是地产危机转为经济危机的根源；恒大背后是房地产企业加杠杆，中国的居民加杠杆并不严重。\n中国居民尽管也加杠杆买房，但是中国有严格的首付比例等限制，与美国次贷完全不可同日而语，中国不存在居民资产负债表崩溃的可能。\n第二，雷曼时刻之后的关键是房价崩盘式下跌，导致抵押品快速贬值，继而出现全面危机；中国看不到房价断崖式下行的可能。对于房价上涨压力大的地区，确实政策非常严格，而对于房价存在下跌压力的地区，则已经开始出台限制房价下跌政策。中国因城施策的背景下，房价未来大概率进入涨跌均有限的波动状态，甚至是冻结状态，不会触发抵押品贬值危机。中国出问题仅限于房企，而不是押品，这是与美国2008年的另一大关键区别。\n第三，中国有成熟的大型企业债务问题处置经验，包商、华融、明天、安邦、海航等体量都与恒大可比，甚至有的比恒大更大，处置方式基本都是国家接管、业务拆分、切断传染。其中，能够避免雷曼重演的关键是：切断传染。我们认为即使真有个别中国的房企资不抵债，也能通过政府介入切断传染性（不是政府兜底，而是切断传染）。\n第四，银行是缓冲/加速债务危机的关键环节，中国的银行大多数具有国企背景，或者对监管、对政府的响应要比美国强得多。如果按照市场化主体的行为逻辑，很容易出现挤兑（看房企出问题，于是全面抽贷断贷），而中国的银行不存在这个问题。在2020年3-4月疫情高峰、谁也看不清企业能否活下去的时候，中国的银行体系可以大量放贷，还是放中长期贷、甚至信用贷，足以表明中国的银行与美国的银行有巨大差异。\n综上所述，我们认为，恒大并不是中国版雷曼，两者差异非常大。如果真的有大型房企资不抵债，则更类似之前的个别大型企业的定点爆破，而不会出现类似美国2008年的风险传染。\n对于中国经济和资本市场，我们认为：\n1、房地产调控大方向不会变化，2020疫情后-2021年上半年，房地产是中国经济的重要支撑，而现在开始，房地产确实正在变成对经济的拖累。\n2、中国房地产行业不可能消失，即使是发达国家，房地产业仍然占有重要位置，因此，如果房地产行业整体错杀，特别是如果符合三道红线的优质房企被错杀，则其股、债均存在投资机会。\n3、对于股市的影响，与美国2008年不可同日而语。港股更多的受到外资影响，不了解中国国情，外资误判是正常的；而如果中国股市出现类似港股的下跌，则是买入机会。\n4、对于债券市场，雷曼时刻之后，美债收益率上行，有观点认为中国可能会出现类似情况，这基本属于误读。美国当年是真的出现了“现金为王”的情况，避险避到只认现金，而中国距离那一步实在是十万八千里。我们认为，中国出现类似美国当年的避险情绪很难，就算真的出现避险，中国央行也会保证流动性，类似包商、永煤之后，导致的是国债收益率下行而不是上行。\n我们认为，恒大对中国债市的主要影响是两方面：\n一是寻找优质房企的地产债错杀机会；\n二是确认调控对于房地产投资的影响，这将导致经济下行压力加大，在内需本就不足的情况下，货币宽松可能性上升（我们维持10-11月存在降息可能）。\n中国不存在“雷曼时刻”，维持3月以来提出的“债牛已至”观点不变，同时提示低估值蓝筹股的投资机会。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":175444886,"gmtCreate":1627047921145,"gmtModify":1631893548048,"author":{"id":"4089524325627800","authorId":"4089524325627800","name":"ewangteoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1a4685095869993dc85e75987db1c0","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089524325627800","authorIdStr":"4089524325627800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like it","listText":"like it","text":"like it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175444886","repostId":"1152547448","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":874575374,"gmtCreate":1637806233688,"gmtModify":1637806233861,"author":{"id":"4089524325627800","authorId":"4089524325627800","name":"ewangteoh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf1a4685095869993dc85e75987db1c0","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089524325627800","authorIdStr":"4089524325627800"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06118\">$奥星生命科技(06118)$</a>我都忘记上过这船，老师明明说这股可以去40的，点解？！老师说一定是有人泄密所以导致股价大跌，会帮我讨回公道。有老师真是好。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06118\">$奥星生命科技(06118)$</a>我都忘记上过这船，老师明明说这股可以去40的，点解？！老师说一定是有人泄密所以导致股价大跌，会帮我讨回公道。有老师真是好。","text":"$奥星生命科技(06118)$我都忘记上过这船，老师明明说这股可以去40的，点解？！老师说一定是有人泄密所以导致股价大跌，会帮我讨回公道。有老师真是好。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91ea094341870e6ca503a5303800772a","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874575374","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2625,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}