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Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>
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2021-08-17
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>还有多大下跌空间呢? 再抄一波","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a>还有多大下跌空间呢? 再抄一波","text":"$Alibaba(BABA)$还有多大下跌空间呢? 再抄一波","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/051ebfb9d34ecf194dde09c6d6d9a935","width":"1440","height":"4207"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600874068","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2087,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":603429385,"gmtCreate":1638441764077,"gmtModify":1638442261624,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089599132652130","idStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/603429385","repostId":"600460484","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":600460484,"gmtCreate":1638188842913,"gmtModify":1638316865797,"author":{"id":"3557463925109250","authorId":"3557463925109250","name":"变盘时刻","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c826ba914279c42001048d7ddfa2372","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3557463925109250","idStr":"3557463925109250"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>自选股，几天10个点也不错[开心] <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RBLX\">$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$</a>自选股，几天10个点也不错[开心] <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC院线(AMC)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$</a>","text":"$Roblox Corporation(RBLX)$自选股，几天10个点也不错[开心] 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Signs That the Stock Market could be Topping Out","htmlText":"Last week, the 4 major US indices had a smooth rally with low volume suggested there is lacking of supply in the upswing.US indices: S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, NASDAQThis is especially obvious in the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连 2112(ESmain)$</a> , as shown in the upper left pane above. However, one thing stands out on last Friday among the 4 US indices:1. S&P 500 futures (ES) tested the all time high at 4550 followed by a mild rejection.2. Dow Jones futures (YM), as shown in the lower left pane, also had a mild rejection despite closing at all time high.3. Russell 2000 futures (RTY) failed to commit above the swing high formed on 15 Oct with mild rejection, as shown in the upper right pane.4. Nasdaq futures (NQ) had slightly l","listText":"Last week, the 4 major US indices had a smooth rally with low volume suggested there is lacking of supply in the upswing.US indices: S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, NASDAQThis is especially obvious in the <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/ESmain\">$SP500指数主连 2112(ESmain)$</a> , as shown in the upper left pane above. However, one thing stands out on last Friday among the 4 US indices:1. S&P 500 futures (ES) tested the all time high at 4550 followed by a mild rejection.2. Dow Jones futures (YM), as shown in the lower left pane, also had a mild rejection despite closing at all time high.3. Russell 2000 futures (RTY) failed to commit above the swing high formed on 15 Oct with mild rejection, as shown in the upper right pane.4. Nasdaq futures (NQ) had slightly l","text":"Last week, the 4 major US indices had a smooth rally with low volume suggested there is lacking of supply in the upswing.US indices: S&P 500, Dow Jones, Russell 2000, NASDAQThis is especially obvious in the $SP500指数主连 2112(ESmain)$ , as shown in the upper left pane above. However, one thing stands out on last Friday among the 4 US indices:1. S&P 500 futures (ES) tested the all time high at 4550 followed by a mild rejection.2. Dow Jones futures (YM), as shown in the lower left pane, also had a mild rejection despite closing at all time high.3. Russell 2000 futures (RTY) failed to commit above the swing high formed on 15 Oct with mild rejection, as shown in the upper right pane.4. Nasdaq futures (NQ) had slightly l","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f61cc90d570c92c9230d28ac290d2d","width":"688","height":"351"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856014982","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2695,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":826421203,"gmtCreate":1634048244803,"gmtModify":1634048391043,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089599132652130","idStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/826421203","repostId":"828128679","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":828128679,"gmtCreate":1633870929198,"gmtModify":1633939048537,"author":{"id":"3574671931921507","authorId":"3574671931921507","name":"Wayneqq","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05d24be2c05653913e90f51e69cfe2a8","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574671931921507","idStr":"3574671931921507"},"themes":[],"title":"Is Cloudflare worth buying at the current price?","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NET\">$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$</a> is a web infrastructure and global cloud service company that provides a variety of services to big and small businesses. They are famous for providing DDoS (Distributed Denial of Service) mitigation service to companies. The cloudflare service sit between the customer's website and the internet to filter traffic that is going to the website.In addition, they also provide solutions to build, accelerate, and optimise web applications, configure CDN (Content DistributionNetwork) and hosting services, manage cloud services, provide access controls for company employees on the internet such as SASE (Secure Access Service Edge) and ZTNA (Zero Trust Network Access).With a gross profit margin of more than 76% and growi","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NET\">$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$</a> is a web infrastructure and global cloud service company that provides a variety of services to big and small businesses. They are famous for providing DDoS (Distributed Denial of Service) mitigation service to companies. The cloudflare service sit between the customer's website and the internet to filter traffic that is going to the website.In addition, they also provide solutions to build, accelerate, and optimise web applications, configure CDN (Content DistributionNetwork) and hosting services, manage cloud services, provide access controls for company employees on the internet such as SASE (Secure Access Service Edge) and ZTNA (Zero Trust Network Access).With a gross profit margin of more than 76% and growi","text":"$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ is a web infrastructure and global cloud service company that provides a variety of services to big and small businesses. They are famous for providing DDoS (Distributed Denial of Service) mitigation service to companies. The cloudflare service sit between the customer's website and the internet to filter traffic that is going to the website.In addition, they also provide solutions to build, accelerate, and optimise web applications, configure CDN (Content DistributionNetwork) and hosting services, manage cloud services, provide access controls for company employees on the internet such as SASE (Secure Access Service Edge) and ZTNA (Zero Trust Network Access).With a gross profit margin of more than 76% and growi","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a3dec8097a1daec3a6beda343d4e663"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828128679","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":865728514,"gmtCreate":1633023143485,"gmtModify":1633023143736,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089599132652130","idStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865728514","repostId":"865855718","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":865855718,"gmtCreate":1632969706630,"gmtModify":1710361313366,"author":{"id":"3527667596890271","authorId":"3527667596890271","name":"Buy_Sell","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5f0ed79a338c758a22e0b4ea13bf9d2","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667596890271","idStr":"3527667596890271"},"themes":[],"title":"❗️【9月30日】涨跌互现，开启盘整？今天买点啥","htmlText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 9月30日，恒生指数开盘下跌169.24点，跌幅0.69%，报24494.26点；国企指数开盘下跌96.97点，跌幅1.11%，报8663.47点；红筹指数开盘下跌14.14点，跌幅0.36%，报3910.0点。 恒生科技指数跌1.97%，科技股领跌，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">$京东集团-SW(09618)$</a> 跌超4%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 跌近3%； 港股手游板块普跌，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$</a> 跌3.9%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$网易-S(09999)$</a> 跌2.96%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 跌2.6%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 跌1.94%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03888\">$金山软件(03888)$</a> 跌1.3","listText":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 9月30日，恒生指数开盘下跌169.24点，跌幅0.69%，报24494.26点；国企指数开盘下跌96.97点，跌幅1.11%，报8663.47点；红筹指数开盘下跌14.14点，跌幅0.36%，报3910.0点。 恒生科技指数跌1.97%，科技股领跌，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09618\">$京东集团-SW(09618)$</a> 跌超4%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">$美团-W(03690)$</a> 、<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a> 跌近3%； 港股手游板块普跌，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09626\">$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$</a> 跌3.9%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09999\">$网易-S(09999)$</a> 跌2.96%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01024\">$快手-W(01024)$</a> 跌2.6%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$</a> 跌1.94%，<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03888\">$金山软件(03888)$</a> 跌1.3","text":"聊聊今日份的交易想法，包括对于大盘走势后续的看法？看涨/看跌哪只股票、晒晒单等等。 港股市场 9月30日，恒生指数开盘下跌169.24点，跌幅0.69%，报24494.26点；国企指数开盘下跌96.97点，跌幅1.11%，报8663.47点；红筹指数开盘下跌14.14点，跌幅0.36%，报3910.0点。 恒生科技指数跌1.97%，科技股领跌，$京东集团-SW(09618)$ 跌超4%，$美团-W(03690)$ 、$小米集团-W(01810)$ 跌近3%； 港股手游板块普跌，$哔哩哔哩-SW(09626)$ 跌3.9%，$网易-S(09999)$ 跌2.96%，$快手-W(01024)$ 跌2.6%，$腾讯控股(00700)$ 跌1.94%，$金山软件(03888)$ 跌1.3","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8c224c9889536a14f83eca563ae0bb07","width":"666","height":"284"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/865855718","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":860501453,"gmtCreate":1632185944572,"gmtModify":1632802237013,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089599132652130","idStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860501453","repostId":"2169681424","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2954,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885943564,"gmtCreate":1631753261858,"gmtModify":1631891710323,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089599132652130","idStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885943564","repostId":"2167592712","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2523,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815493088,"gmtCreate":1630711089644,"gmtModify":1631891710326,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089599132652130","idStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815493088","repostId":"2164803577","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2096,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812572290,"gmtCreate":1630597715210,"gmtModify":1631891710330,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089599132652130","idStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812572290","repostId":"1125928533","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832517319,"gmtCreate":1629668124231,"gmtModify":1631891710334,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089599132652130","idStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832517319","repostId":"1133515985","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":967,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832804690,"gmtCreate":1629602956810,"gmtModify":1631891710337,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089599132652130","idStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832804690","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更容易预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更容易预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNPS":"新思科技","ON":"安森美半导体","GOOG":"谷歌","TSM":"台积电","AAPL":"苹果","GOOGL":"谷歌A","ASML":"阿斯麦","SSNLF":"三星电子","NVDA":"英伟达","AMZN":"亚马逊","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","CDNS":"铿腾电子","QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CDNS":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"ON":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"SOXX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838285930,"gmtCreate":1629413958620,"gmtModify":1631891710338,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089599132652130","idStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838285930","repostId":"1150522255","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150522255","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629386895,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1150522255?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 23:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NVDA soars over 6% in morning trading<blockquote>NVDA早盘飙升逾6%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150522255","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 19) Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) shares rose over 6% Thursday to a record high following the chipmaker's","content":"<p>(Aug 19) Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) shares rose over 6% Thursday to a record high following the chipmaker's second-quarter results that were highlighted by strength in the company's data center business.</p><p><blockquote>（8月19日）英伟达（纳斯达克：NVDA）股价周四上涨超过6%，创历史新高，此前该芯片制造商公布了第二季度业绩，凸显了该公司数据中心业务的实力。</blockquote></p><p> Data center revenue rose 35% from a year ago, to $2.37 billion. Bank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya said that with regards to its data center offerings, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA Corp</a> (NVDA) showed growth in hyperscale, vertical markets and high-performance computing, which Arya said should help the company's data center business grow by at least 30% a year over the long-term. Arya has a buy rating and $260-a-share price target on Nvidia's (NVDA) stock.</p><p><blockquote>数据中心收入同比增长35%，达到23.7亿美元。美国银行证券分析师Vivek Arya表示，就其数据中心产品而言，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达公司</a>(NVDA)在超大规模、垂直市场和高性能计算方面表现出增长，Arya表示，从长远来看，这应该有助于该公司的数据中心业务每年至少增长30%。Arya对Nvidia(NVDA)股票给予买入评级和每股260美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> But, it was the gaming that produced the largest share of the company's revenue in the most-recent quarter. Gaming totaled $3.06 billion, up 85% from a year ago, led by demand for GeForce graphics processors and system-on-a-chip offerings for game consoles.</p><p><blockquote>但是，在最近一个季度，游戏在公司收入中所占份额最大。游戏总收入为30.6亿美元，同比增长85%，主要是对GeForce图形处理器和游戏机片上系统产品的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Timothy Arcuri, of UBS, said Nvidia's (NVDA) gaming business is \"trending more in-line\" heading into what is typically a strong fall quarter for the company. Arcuri has a buy rating and $230-a-share price target on the chipmaker's stock.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银(UBS)的蒂莫西·阿库里(Timothy Arcuri)表示，英伟达(NVDA)的游戏业务“趋势更加一致”，进入该公司通常强劲的秋季季度。Arcuri对这家芯片制造商的股票给予买入评级和每股230美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> For the quarter, Nvidia (NVDA) reported a profit of $1.04 a share, on total revenue of $6.51 billion. Wall Street analysts had forecast the chipmaker to earn $1.02 a share on $6.34 billion in sales.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达(NVDA)报告本季度每股利润为1.04美元，总收入为65.1亿美元。华尔街分析师此前预测这家芯片制造商的销售额为63.4亿美元，每股收益为1.02美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9901d7947e5f939784f513f994e97469\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <ul></ul></p><p><blockquote><ul></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NVDA soars over 6% in morning trading<blockquote>NVDA早盘飙升逾6%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNVDA soars over 6% in morning trading<blockquote>NVDA早盘飙升逾6%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-19 23:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 19) Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) shares rose over 6% Thursday to a record high following the chipmaker's second-quarter results that were highlighted by strength in the company's data center business.</p><p><blockquote>（8月19日）英伟达（纳斯达克：NVDA）股价周四上涨超过6%，创历史新高，此前该芯片制造商公布了第二季度业绩，凸显了该公司数据中心业务的实力。</blockquote></p><p> Data center revenue rose 35% from a year ago, to $2.37 billion. Bank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya said that with regards to its data center offerings, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">NVIDIA Corp</a> (NVDA) showed growth in hyperscale, vertical markets and high-performance computing, which Arya said should help the company's data center business grow by at least 30% a year over the long-term. Arya has a buy rating and $260-a-share price target on Nvidia's (NVDA) stock.</p><p><blockquote>数据中心收入同比增长35%，达到23.7亿美元。美国银行证券分析师Vivek Arya表示，就其数据中心产品而言，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达公司</a>(NVDA)在超大规模、垂直市场和高性能计算方面表现出增长，Arya表示，从长远来看，这应该有助于该公司的数据中心业务每年至少增长30%。Arya对Nvidia(NVDA)股票给予买入评级和每股260美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> But, it was the gaming that produced the largest share of the company's revenue in the most-recent quarter. Gaming totaled $3.06 billion, up 85% from a year ago, led by demand for GeForce graphics processors and system-on-a-chip offerings for game consoles.</p><p><blockquote>但是，在最近一个季度，游戏在公司收入中所占份额最大。游戏总收入为30.6亿美元，同比增长85%，主要是对GeForce图形处理器和游戏机片上系统产品的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Timothy Arcuri, of UBS, said Nvidia's (NVDA) gaming business is \"trending more in-line\" heading into what is typically a strong fall quarter for the company. Arcuri has a buy rating and $230-a-share price target on the chipmaker's stock.</p><p><blockquote>瑞银(UBS)的蒂莫西·阿库里(Timothy Arcuri)表示，英伟达(NVDA)的游戏业务“趋势更加一致”，进入该公司通常强劲的秋季季度。Arcuri对这家芯片制造商的股票给予买入评级和每股230美元的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> For the quarter, Nvidia (NVDA) reported a profit of $1.04 a share, on total revenue of $6.51 billion. Wall Street analysts had forecast the chipmaker to earn $1.02 a share on $6.34 billion in sales.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达(NVDA)报告本季度每股利润为1.04美元，总收入为65.1亿美元。华尔街分析师此前预测这家芯片制造商的销售额为63.4亿美元，每股收益为1.02美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9901d7947e5f939784f513f994e97469\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"653\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <ul></ul></p><p><blockquote><ul></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150522255","content_text":"(Aug 19) Nvidia(NASDAQ:NVDA) shares rose over 6% Thursday to a record high following the chipmaker's second-quarter results that were highlighted by strength in the company's data center business.\nData center revenue rose 35% from a year ago, to $2.37 billion. Bank of America Securities analyst Vivek Arya said that with regards to its data center offerings, NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) showed growth in hyperscale, vertical markets and high-performance computing, which Arya said should help the company's data center business grow by at least 30% a year over the long-term. Arya has a buy rating and $260-a-share price target on Nvidia's (NVDA) stock.\nBut, it was the gaming that produced the largest share of the company's revenue in the most-recent quarter. Gaming totaled $3.06 billion, up 85% from a year ago, led by demand for GeForce graphics processors and system-on-a-chip offerings for game consoles.\nTimothy Arcuri, of UBS, said Nvidia's (NVDA) gaming business is \"trending more in-line\" heading into what is typically a strong fall quarter for the company. Arcuri has a buy rating and $230-a-share price target on the chipmaker's stock.\nFor the quarter, Nvidia (NVDA) reported a profit of $1.04 a share, on total revenue of $6.51 billion. Wall Street analysts had forecast the chipmaker to earn $1.02 a share on $6.34 billion in sales.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":955,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":838285072,"gmtCreate":1629413941096,"gmtModify":1631891710341,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089599132652130","idStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838285072","repostId":"1102855434","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":945,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831783087,"gmtCreate":1629349149049,"gmtModify":1631891710345,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089599132652130","idStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831783087","repostId":"1126957066","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126957066","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629348758,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126957066?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-19 12:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft's Stock May Be About To Run Sharply Higher<blockquote>微软股价可能即将大幅走高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126957066","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft's stock has been a big winner of the pandemic, and there may be one more 10-15% p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Microsoft's stock has been a big winner of the pandemic, and there may be one more 10-15% push higher on the way.</li> <li>The options market appears to be betting that the stock climbs over $320 by the middle of November.</li> <li>However, the stock's valuation is high on a historical basis and growth is about to slow considerably, giving the shares a path higher up until the next earnings report.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd13176456827fe134fc15a4ce7b3d61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软的股价一直是疫情的大赢家，未来可能还会上涨10-15%。</li><li>期权市场似乎押注该股到11月中旬将攀升至320美元以上。</li><li>然而，该股的估值处于历史高位，增长即将大幅放缓，这使得该股在下一份收益报告之前有一条上涨的道路。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>HJBC/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft (MSFT) has been a big winner of the pandemic, with the stock rocketing higher over the past 18 months. There are now signs the stock's advance may not be over, with bigger gains to come. The stock could be heading to around $320 to $325 over the next couple of months, nearly 10% to 15% higher than its price of roughly $293 on August 17, based on an analysis of the options market and technical charts.</p><p><blockquote>微软(MSFT)一直是疫情的大赢家，该股在过去18个月内飙升。现在有迹象表明，该股的上涨可能还没有结束，还会有更大的涨幅。根据对期权市场和技术图表的分析，该股未来几个月可能会上涨至320美元至325美元左右，比8月17日约293美元的价格高出近10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> The positive outlook for the stock comes despite the shares trading at a lofty valuation, just as earnings growth is expected to slow dramatically. It leaves investors in an awkward spot, wondering if they should continue to chase the stock higher just as year-over-year comparables get harder. But the reality of slowing growth may not hit until the company reports its next round of results in late October, giving the shares a path higher over the next couple of months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该股估值很高，但该股的前景仍然乐观，而盈利增长预计将大幅放缓。这让投资者陷入了尴尬的境地，他们想知道在同比可比数据变得更加困难的情况下，他们是否应该继续追逐该股走高。但增长放缓的现实可能要到该公司10月底公布下一轮业绩时才会显现，这将使该股在未来几个月走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Slower Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长放缓</b></blockquote></p><p> Earnings growth for Microsoft is expected to slip going forward, rising by 8.8% in the fiscal year 2022 from 39.7% in fiscal 2021. It is forecast to accelerate in the fiscal year 2023, but only to 14.3%, which is still slower than its earnings growth of 22.4% and 21.3% in 2019 and 2020. Additionally, growth rates over the next four quarters are expected to decelerate, dropping to 7.5% by the fourth quarter from 13.5% in the fiscal first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>微软的盈利增长预计将下滑，从2021财年的39.7%增长到2022财年的8.8%。预计2023财年将加速增长，但仅达到14.3%，仍低于2019年和2020年22.4%和21.3%的盈利增长。此外，未来四个季度的增长率预计将放缓，从第一财季的13.5%降至第四季度的7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The slowing growth rate presents the biggest problem for the stock because it currently trades at 29.3 times 2023 earnings estimates. This is not a cheap valuation for Microsoft. In fact, over the past 5 years, the stock has averaged a PE ratio of just 24.6, making the current valuation very pricey on a historical basis.</p><p><blockquote>增长率放缓给该股带来了最大的问题，因为该股目前的市盈率是2023年盈利预期的29.3倍。这对微软来说并不便宜。事实上，在过去5年中，该股的平均市盈率仅为24.6，这使得目前的估值从历史角度来看非常昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bb48fc1b4ed571a9b496e941bcd7df\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> On a price-to-sales metric, the stock has only been more expensive one other time, which was in the late 1990s and early 2000s during the dot.com mania. This could really leave an investor feeling confused, with an extremely high valuation for a sales multiple, and while the PE ratio is high, but tolerable. However, the price-to-sales metric is essentially off the charts at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>从市销率指标来看，该股只有一次更贵，那是在20世纪90年代末和2000年代初的互联网狂热期间。这确实会让投资者感到困惑，销售倍数的估值极高，虽然市盈率很高，但还可以忍受。然而，在目前的水平上，市销率指标基本上超出了图表。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51420f64c4723e67897f0b9f1f1e9704\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Options Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期权展望</b></blockquote></p><p> Still, the questionably high valuation isn't stopping the options market from being very bullish on the stock. Perhaps that is because of the stock's momentum behind it since the start of the pandemic. On August 18, the open interest for the November 19 $315 calls rose by around 20,000 contracts. The data shows the call options were bought for roughly $4.50 to $4.75 per contract. It implies that the stock is trading at $319.75 or higher by the expiration date, a gain of around 9.1% from its closing price on August 17. It is a massively bullish bet as well, with premiums paid off roughly $9.5 million.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，令人质疑的高估值并没有阻止期权市场对该股的非常看好。也许这是因为自大流行开始以来该股的势头。8月18日，11月19日315美元评级的未平仓合约增加了约2万份。数据显示，看涨期权期权的购买价格约为每份合约4.50至4.75美元。这意味着该股在到期日的交易价格为319.75美元或更高，较8月17日收盘价上涨约9.1%。这也是一个非常看涨的赌注，保费支付了约950万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7029da5552d3abe13f25ed926ee79b19\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals Support A Move Higher</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术面支持走高</b></blockquote></p><p> From a technical perspective, the stock may have further to climb after breaking out of a bullish flag pattern when it rose above resistance at $290. The pattern formed starting around June 4 and a projection of the move off of that starting pointing suggests the stock rises to around $327 over the next few months a gain of about 15%, which is roughly in line with the bullish options bet placed.</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度来看，该股在突破看涨旗形形态后，升破290美元阻力位后可能还需要进一步攀升。该模式是从6月4日左右开始形成的，对该起始点的预测表明，该股在未来几个月内将升至327美元左右，涨幅约为15%，这与看涨期权押注大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> The one concern here is that this could prove to be the final push higher for Microsoft, as there is a bearish divergence currently forming between the stock's price and the momentum indicators. The relative strength index and the MACD are slowly trending lower, and this would indicate that momentum in the stock is now waning and bearish momentum is taking hold.</p><p><blockquote>这里的一个担忧是，这可能是微软的最后一次走高，因为该股价格和动量指标之间目前正在形成看跌背离。相对强弱指数和MACD正在缓慢走低，这表明该股的动能正在减弱，看跌动能正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64a13885bdd2dc7c41ad5730b0b40332\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The current options and technical setup would suggest the stock is likely to flourish for some time longer, while the fundamentals would suggest the valuation is stretched. Overall, it seems to give Microsoft a path higher at least until the next round of earnings, which is likely not to come until sometime in late October.</p><p><blockquote>目前的期权和技术设置表明该股可能会在一段时间内繁荣，而基本面表明估值过高。总体而言，这似乎至少在下一轮财报发布之前为微软提供了一条走高的道路，而下一轮财报可能要到10月底的某个时候才会到来。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft's Stock May Be About To Run Sharply Higher<blockquote>微软股价可能即将大幅走高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft's Stock May Be About To Run Sharply Higher<blockquote>微软股价可能即将大幅走高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-19 12:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Microsoft's stock has been a big winner of the pandemic, and there may be one more 10-15% push higher on the way.</li> <li>The options market appears to be betting that the stock climbs over $320 by the middle of November.</li> <li>However, the stock's valuation is high on a historical basis and growth is about to slow considerably, giving the shares a path higher up until the next earnings report.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd13176456827fe134fc15a4ce7b3d61\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>HJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>微软的股价一直是疫情的大赢家，未来可能还会上涨10-15%。</li><li>期权市场似乎押注该股到11月中旬将攀升至320美元以上。</li><li>然而，该股的估值处于历史高位，增长即将大幅放缓，这使得该股在下一份收益报告之前有一条上涨的道路。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>HJBC/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Microsoft (MSFT) has been a big winner of the pandemic, with the stock rocketing higher over the past 18 months. There are now signs the stock's advance may not be over, with bigger gains to come. The stock could be heading to around $320 to $325 over the next couple of months, nearly 10% to 15% higher than its price of roughly $293 on August 17, based on an analysis of the options market and technical charts.</p><p><blockquote>微软(MSFT)一直是疫情的大赢家，该股在过去18个月内飙升。现在有迹象表明，该股的上涨可能还没有结束，还会有更大的涨幅。根据对期权市场和技术图表的分析，该股未来几个月可能会上涨至320美元至325美元左右，比8月17日约293美元的价格高出近10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> The positive outlook for the stock comes despite the shares trading at a lofty valuation, just as earnings growth is expected to slow dramatically. It leaves investors in an awkward spot, wondering if they should continue to chase the stock higher just as year-over-year comparables get harder. But the reality of slowing growth may not hit until the company reports its next round of results in late October, giving the shares a path higher over the next couple of months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管该股估值很高，但该股的前景仍然乐观，而盈利增长预计将大幅放缓。这让投资者陷入了尴尬的境地，他们想知道在同比可比数据变得更加困难的情况下，他们是否应该继续追逐该股走高。但增长放缓的现实可能要到该公司10月底公布下一轮业绩时才会显现，这将使该股在未来几个月走高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Slower Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长放缓</b></blockquote></p><p> Earnings growth for Microsoft is expected to slip going forward, rising by 8.8% in the fiscal year 2022 from 39.7% in fiscal 2021. It is forecast to accelerate in the fiscal year 2023, but only to 14.3%, which is still slower than its earnings growth of 22.4% and 21.3% in 2019 and 2020. Additionally, growth rates over the next four quarters are expected to decelerate, dropping to 7.5% by the fourth quarter from 13.5% in the fiscal first quarter.</p><p><blockquote>微软的盈利增长预计将下滑，从2021财年的39.7%增长到2022财年的8.8%。预计2023财年将加速增长，但仅达到14.3%，仍低于2019年和2020年22.4%和21.3%的盈利增长。此外，未来四个季度的增长率预计将放缓，从第一财季的13.5%降至第四季度的7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The slowing growth rate presents the biggest problem for the stock because it currently trades at 29.3 times 2023 earnings estimates. This is not a cheap valuation for Microsoft. In fact, over the past 5 years, the stock has averaged a PE ratio of just 24.6, making the current valuation very pricey on a historical basis.</p><p><blockquote>增长率放缓给该股带来了最大的问题，因为该股目前的市盈率是2023年盈利预期的29.3倍。这对微软来说并不便宜。事实上，在过去5年中，该股的平均市盈率仅为24.6，这使得目前的估值从历史角度来看非常昂贵。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3bb48fc1b4ed571a9b496e941bcd7df\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> On a price-to-sales metric, the stock has only been more expensive one other time, which was in the late 1990s and early 2000s during the dot.com mania. This could really leave an investor feeling confused, with an extremely high valuation for a sales multiple, and while the PE ratio is high, but tolerable. However, the price-to-sales metric is essentially off the charts at current levels.</p><p><blockquote>从市销率指标来看，该股只有一次更贵，那是在20世纪90年代末和2000年代初的互联网狂热期间。这确实会让投资者感到困惑，销售倍数的估值极高，虽然市盈率很高，但还可以忍受。然而，在目前的水平上，市销率指标基本上超出了图表。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51420f64c4723e67897f0b9f1f1e9704\" tg-width=\"626\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Options Outlook</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期权展望</b></blockquote></p><p> Still, the questionably high valuation isn't stopping the options market from being very bullish on the stock. Perhaps that is because of the stock's momentum behind it since the start of the pandemic. On August 18, the open interest for the November 19 $315 calls rose by around 20,000 contracts. The data shows the call options were bought for roughly $4.50 to $4.75 per contract. It implies that the stock is trading at $319.75 or higher by the expiration date, a gain of around 9.1% from its closing price on August 17. It is a massively bullish bet as well, with premiums paid off roughly $9.5 million.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，令人质疑的高估值并没有阻止期权市场对该股的非常看好。也许这是因为自大流行开始以来该股的势头。8月18日，11月19日315美元评级的未平仓合约增加了约2万份。数据显示，看涨期权期权的购买价格约为每份合约4.50至4.75美元。这意味着该股在到期日的交易价格为319.75美元或更高，较8月17日收盘价上涨约9.1%。这也是一个非常看涨的赌注，保费支付了约950万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7029da5552d3abe13f25ed926ee79b19\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals Support A Move Higher</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术面支持走高</b></blockquote></p><p> From a technical perspective, the stock may have further to climb after breaking out of a bullish flag pattern when it rose above resistance at $290. The pattern formed starting around June 4 and a projection of the move off of that starting pointing suggests the stock rises to around $327 over the next few months a gain of about 15%, which is roughly in line with the bullish options bet placed.</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度来看，该股在突破看涨旗形形态后，升破290美元阻力位后可能还需要进一步攀升。该模式是从6月4日左右开始形成的，对该起始点的预测表明，该股在未来几个月内将升至327美元左右，涨幅约为15%，这与看涨期权押注大致一致。</blockquote></p><p> The one concern here is that this could prove to be the final push higher for Microsoft, as there is a bearish divergence currently forming between the stock's price and the momentum indicators. The relative strength index and the MACD are slowly trending lower, and this would indicate that momentum in the stock is now waning and bearish momentum is taking hold.</p><p><blockquote>这里的一个担忧是，这可能是微软的最后一次走高，因为该股价格和动量指标之间目前正在形成看跌背离。相对强弱指数和MACD正在缓慢走低，这表明该股的动能正在减弱，看跌动能正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64a13885bdd2dc7c41ad5730b0b40332\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The current options and technical setup would suggest the stock is likely to flourish for some time longer, while the fundamentals would suggest the valuation is stretched. Overall, it seems to give Microsoft a path higher at least until the next round of earnings, which is likely not to come until sometime in late October.</p><p><blockquote>目前的期权和技术设置表明该股可能会在一段时间内繁荣，而基本面表明估值过高。总体而言，这似乎至少在下一轮财报发布之前为微软提供了一条走高的道路，而下一轮财报可能要到10月底的某个时候才会到来。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450393-microsofts-stock-may-be-about-to-run-sharply-higher\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450393-microsofts-stock-may-be-about-to-run-sharply-higher","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126957066","content_text":"Summary\n\nMicrosoft's stock has been a big winner of the pandemic, and there may be one more 10-15% push higher on the way.\nThe options market appears to be betting that the stock climbs over $320 by the middle of November.\nHowever, the stock's valuation is high on a historical basis and growth is about to slow considerably, giving the shares a path higher up until the next earnings report.\n\nHJBC/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nMicrosoft (MSFT) has been a big winner of the pandemic, with the stock rocketing higher over the past 18 months. There are now signs the stock's advance may not be over, with bigger gains to come. The stock could be heading to around $320 to $325 over the next couple of months, nearly 10% to 15% higher than its price of roughly $293 on August 17, based on an analysis of the options market and technical charts.\nThe positive outlook for the stock comes despite the shares trading at a lofty valuation, just as earnings growth is expected to slow dramatically. It leaves investors in an awkward spot, wondering if they should continue to chase the stock higher just as year-over-year comparables get harder. But the reality of slowing growth may not hit until the company reports its next round of results in late October, giving the shares a path higher over the next couple of months.\nSlower Growth\nEarnings growth for Microsoft is expected to slip going forward, rising by 8.8% in the fiscal year 2022 from 39.7% in fiscal 2021. It is forecast to accelerate in the fiscal year 2023, but only to 14.3%, which is still slower than its earnings growth of 22.4% and 21.3% in 2019 and 2020. Additionally, growth rates over the next four quarters are expected to decelerate, dropping to 7.5% by the fourth quarter from 13.5% in the fiscal first quarter.\nThe slowing growth rate presents the biggest problem for the stock because it currently trades at 29.3 times 2023 earnings estimates. This is not a cheap valuation for Microsoft. In fact, over the past 5 years, the stock has averaged a PE ratio of just 24.6, making the current valuation very pricey on a historical basis.\n\nOn a price-to-sales metric, the stock has only been more expensive one other time, which was in the late 1990s and early 2000s during the dot.com mania. This could really leave an investor feeling confused, with an extremely high valuation for a sales multiple, and while the PE ratio is high, but tolerable. However, the price-to-sales metric is essentially off the charts at current levels.\n\nOptions Outlook\nStill, the questionably high valuation isn't stopping the options market from being very bullish on the stock. Perhaps that is because of the stock's momentum behind it since the start of the pandemic. On August 18, the open interest for the November 19 $315 calls rose by around 20,000 contracts. The data shows the call options were bought for roughly $4.50 to $4.75 per contract. It implies that the stock is trading at $319.75 or higher by the expiration date, a gain of around 9.1% from its closing price on August 17. It is a massively bullish bet as well, with premiums paid off roughly $9.5 million.\n\nTechnicals Support A Move Higher\nFrom a technical perspective, the stock may have further to climb after breaking out of a bullish flag pattern when it rose above resistance at $290. The pattern formed starting around June 4 and a projection of the move off of that starting pointing suggests the stock rises to around $327 over the next few months a gain of about 15%, which is roughly in line with the bullish options bet placed.\nThe one concern here is that this could prove to be the final push higher for Microsoft, as there is a bearish divergence currently forming between the stock's price and the momentum indicators. The relative strength index and the MACD are slowly trending lower, and this would indicate that momentum in the stock is now waning and bearish momentum is taking hold.\n\nThe current options and technical setup would suggest the stock is likely to flourish for some time longer, while the fundamentals would suggest the valuation is stretched. Overall, it seems to give Microsoft a path higher at least until the next round of earnings, which is likely not to come until sometime in late October.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":938,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833710108,"gmtCreate":1629262161604,"gmtModify":1631891710348,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089599132652130","idStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833710108","repostId":"2160207426","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":833,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839445022,"gmtCreate":1629177303966,"gmtModify":1631891710354,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089599132652130","idStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839445022","repostId":"1139131126","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830165662,"gmtCreate":1629031965556,"gmtModify":1631893595287,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089599132652130","idStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830165662","repostId":"1138705612","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138705612","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628995730,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138705612?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 10:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"AMD, Intel, And Nvidia: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?<blockquote>AMD、英特尔和英伟达：哪个是最好的芯片股？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138705612","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"AMD's recent CPU and GPU offerings have been more competitive with Intel and NVIDIA's products.AMD’s EPYC server chips have proved to be comparable or even superior to certain Intel chips and have led to AMD gaining server CPU market share.Even so, Intel is the leader in the processor market and holds long-term advantages over AMD in R&D, marketing, and pricing.Nvidia is ahead of AMD in GPU technology and is leveraging its GPUs into adjacent end markets such as artificial intelligence.This left ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>AMD's recent CPU and GPU offerings have been more competitive with Intel and NVIDIA's products.</li> <li>AMD’s EPYC server chips have proved to be comparable or even superior to certain Intel chips and have led to AMD gaining server CPU market share.</li> <li>Even so, Intel is the leader in the processor market and holds long-term advantages over AMD in R&D, marketing, and pricing.</li> <li>Nvidia is ahead of AMD in GPU technology and is leveraging its GPUs into adjacent end markets such as artificial intelligence.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8f0aee0f3d10db76a1ee18fe604b40\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Andy/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD最近的CPU和GPU产品与英特尔和英伟达的产品相比更具竞争力。</li><li>事实证明，AMD的EPYC服务器芯片可以与某些英特尔芯片相媲美，甚至优于某些英特尔芯片，并使AMD获得了服务器CPU市场份额。</li><li>即便如此，英特尔仍是处理器市场的领导者，在研发、营销和定价方面相对于AMD拥有长期优势。</li><li>英伟达在GPU技术上领先于AMD，并正在利用其GPU进入人工智能等邻近的终端市场。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安迪/iStock来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Intel (INTC) was once the microchip industry equivalent of the Colossus of Rhodes, a monument to the power of Moore’s law. However, the firm stumbled with its 10-nanometer process, and recently announced its 7-nm process will be delayed until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔（INTC）曾经是微芯片行业的巨人罗德斯岛，是摩尔定律力量的纪念碑。然而，该公司在10纳米工艺上遇到了麻烦，最近宣布其7纳米工艺将推迟到2023年。</blockquote></p><p> This left the door open to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), and that firm has taken full advantage of the opportunity. AMD has taken a large share of the CPU market and is making inroads into the once nearly impenetrable server market.</p><p><blockquote>这为Advanced Micro Devices Inc.(AMD)敞开了大门，该公司充分利用了这个机会。AMD已经占据了CPU市场的很大份额，并正在进军曾经几乎难以渗透的服务器市场。</blockquote></p><p> AMD now has seven consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth under its belt, and it appears the firm is gaining momentum: management now guides for 60% revenue growth for the full year, up from the 50% forecast provided in the previous quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD目前已连续七个季度实现两位数的收入增长，而且该公司似乎正在获得动力：管理层目前预计全年收入增长60%，高于上一季度提供的50%的预测。</blockquote></p><p> However, AMD also competes with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), and the latter company’s GPU technology is stealing market share. NVDA has also been successful in gaining access to adjacent markets with its GPUs, especially AI and automotive markets.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD也与英伟达公司（NVDA）竞争，后者公司的GPU技术正在窃取市场份额。NVDA还凭借其GPU成功进入了邻近市场，尤其是人工智能和汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ins And Outs of Intel</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔的来龙去脉</b></blockquote></p><p> An understanding of Intel also provides insights into AMD. This is due to the overlap between the two companies, particularly in regards to x86 chips. Intel developed the x86 chip in 1978. To satisfy demands by IBM that Intel would not be the sole supplier of the chips, INTC provided x86 instruction set architecture licensing to AMD.</p><p><blockquote>对英特尔的了解也提供了对AMD的洞察。这是由于两家公司之间的重叠，特别是在x86芯片方面。英特尔在1978年开发了x86芯片。为了满足IBM要求英特尔不是芯片的唯一供应商，INTC向AMD提供了x86指令集架构许可。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, Intel and AMD have a duopoly position in the PC and server markets, as nearly all computer software is written for x86 architecture. The result is that both have a wide moat related to the x86 ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>因此，英特尔和AMD在PC和服务器市场处于双头垄断地位，因为几乎所有的计算机软件都是为x86架构编写的。结果是两者都拥有与x86生态系统相关的宽阔护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Gaming consoles in particular are based on x86 architecture due to those platforms generally providing more powerful CPUs and GPUs with multiple compute cores. Like PCs, consoles operate with games that use x86 based software. Once again, this stifles potential competition from ARM-based devices.</p><p><blockquote>特别是游戏控制台基于x86架构，因为这些平台通常提供具有多个计算核心的更强大的CPU和GPU。像PC一样，游戏机运行使用基于x86的软件的游戏。这再次扼杀了来自基于ARM的设备的潜在竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Until fairly recently, AMD was a distant second to INTC as a supplier of x86 chips. However, AMD teamed with Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM)to use that manufacturer’s 7nm process to surpass INTC in process technology. Combined with AMD’s developing new innovative chip designs, this one-two punch resulted in INTC losing significant market share.</p><p><blockquote>直到最近，AMD在x86芯片供应商方面还远远落后于INTC。然而，AMD与台积电（NYSE：TSM）合作，使用该制造商的7纳米工艺，在工艺技术上超越了INTC。再加上AMD正在开发新的创新芯片设计，这种组合拳导致INTC失去了大量的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> At the end of Q1, AMD held 19.30% of the x86 desktop market, a 70 basis point gain year-over-year. In Q2 AMD corralled 8% of the server market, up from a 5% market share in Q4 of 2019.</p><p><blockquote>截至第一季度末，AMD占据x86台式机市场19.30%的份额，同比增长70个基点。第二季度，AMD占据了服务器市场8%的份额，高于2019年第四季度5%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these setbacks, it seems premature to view Intel as a moribund business. INTC is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world. The firm dominates the server market, and still holds 60% of the global x86 CPU market.</p><p><blockquote>尽管遭遇了这些挫折，但将英特尔视为一个垂死的企业似乎还为时过早。INTC是世界上最大的半导体公司之一。该公司在服务器市场占据主导地位，并且仍然占据全球x86 CPU市场的60%。</blockquote></p><p> The company has an enormous R&D budget, and it is expanding into new markets, primarily Artificial Intelligence, Field-Programmable Gate Array chips, and automotive offerings, through its acquisitions of Habana Labs, Altera, Movidius, and Mobileye.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有庞大的研发预算，并正在通过收购Habana Labs、Altera、Movidius和Mobileye扩展到新市场，主要是人工智能、现场可编程门阵列芯片和汽车产品。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should not be swayed by the claim that Intel’s new 10nm chips are inferior to 7nm solely on the basis that 7 is superior to 10. While once used to denote the technology level of a chip design, it has been misused to the point of being useless.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不应该仅仅因为7优于10而被英特尔新的10纳米芯片不如7纳米的说法所左右。虽然曾经用来表示芯片设计的技术水平，但它已经被误用到了无用的地步。</blockquote></p><p> However, there are a number of concerns that must be acknowledged. Intel lags competitors in the smartphone market. As consumers shift to mobile devices, this could result in a sustained headwind as smartphones take the place of PCs. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that INTC’s server processor business has seen growth associated with the surge in mobile devices and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，有一些问题必须承认。英特尔在智能手机市场落后于竞争对手。随着消费者转向移动设备，随着智能手机取代个人电脑，这可能会导致持续的阻力。另一方面，应该承认，INTC的服务器处理器业务随着移动设备和云计算的激增而增长。</blockquote></p><p> Intel also faces increased competition from AMD in the data center space, as well as customers developing their own ARM-based chips for CPUs.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔还面临着来自AMD在数据中心领域日益激烈的竞争，以及客户为CPU开发自己的基于ARM的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An Overview of AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD概述</b></blockquote></p><p> In years past, INTC held the lion’s share of the x86 market. This was due in part to Intel’s leading-edge manufacturing combined with AMD’s wafer supply agreements with less than stellar GlobalFoundries.</p><p><blockquote>过去几年，INTC占据了x86市场的最大份额。这部分归功于英特尔领先的制造以及AMD与不太出色的GlobalFoundries签订的晶圆供应协议。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> However, a seismic shift occurred due to three factors: driven by innovative designs, AMD brought competitive products to market, AMD shifted to TSMC for production, and Intel faced repeated manufacturing delays. The two charts below document the progress the company has made.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于三个因素，发生了翻天覆地的转变：在创新设计的推动下，AMD将有竞争力的产品推向市场，AMD转向台积电生产，英特尔面临一再的制造延迟。下面两张图表记录了公司取得的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/903df41d5400c9807ff487a75a7e5450\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/331cd14b666f520a62d0746d5fadfa5b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Like Intel, AMD’s primary products are CPUs and GPUs. AMD’s chips are designed for PCs, game consoles, servers, and blockchain applications. And like INTC, AMD’s offerings are largely protected from competition due to the preponderance of software for PCs and servers being designed for x86 architecture.</p><p><blockquote>与英特尔一样，AMD的主要产品是CPU和GPU。AMD的芯片专为PC、游戏机、服务器和区块链应用而设计。与INTC一样，由于为x86架构设计的PC和服务器软件占主导地位，AMD的产品在很大程度上免受竞争。</blockquote></p><p> AMD’s strong growth has largely come at the expense of Intel as AMD has steadily chipped away at the former company’s CPU market share.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的强劲增长很大程度上是以牺牲英特尔为代价的，因为AMD稳步蚕食了英特尔的CPU市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f8fbcab5da8a24d01d2b6408bd5686\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s focus on CPU and GPU semi-custom processor applications has resulted in their use in Microsoft Xbox and Sony PlayStation game consoles.</p><p><blockquote>AMD对CPU和GPU半定制处理器应用的关注导致了它们在微软Xbox和Sony PlayStation游戏机中的使用。</blockquote></p><p> In regards to PC integrated GPUs, AMD is roughly in parity with NVIDIA while INTC dominates with roughly 68% of the market.</p><p><blockquote>在PC集成GPU方面，AMD与NVIDIA大致相当，而INTC以大约68%的市场份额占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67a0fe74d986cf882623a8f39587d0d8\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:tom'sHARDWARE</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：汤姆五金</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, NVIDIA dominates the discrete GPU space with an 80% plus market share with AMD sweeping up what is left. NVIDIA’s discrete GPUs are arguably superior to AMD’s (more on that later); therefore, investors should not look for growth here.</p><p><blockquote>然而，NVIDIA以80%以上的市场份额主导着独立GPU领域，AMD席卷了剩下的市场份额。NVIDIA的独立GPU可以说优于AMD的（稍后会详细介绍）；因此，投资者不应该在这里寻找增长。</blockquote></p><p> Although AMD’s EPYC server CPU products were competitive with that of rivals, initially the company relied on aggressive pricing to promote its first generation of EPYC offerings. However, the EPYC line has gained wider acceptance, and with the Milan processors, the company is gaining market share. As server CPUs provide a better profit margin than the company’s other products, expansion into that space should aid in driving revenue.</p><p><blockquote>尽管AMD的EPYC服务器CPU产品与竞争对手相比具有竞争力，但最初该公司依靠激进的定价来推广其第一代EPYC产品。然而，EPYC系列已经获得了更广泛的认可，随着米兰处理器的推出，该公司正在获得市场份额。由于服务器CPU比该公司的其他产品提供了更好的利润率，因此向该领域的扩张应该有助于增加收入。</blockquote></p><p> Late last year,AMD entered intoa deal to acquire Xilinx (XLNX), a leader in field programmable gate array (FPGA) chips. FPGAs can be used for a wide variety of applications. Because shifting to a competing FPGA provider requires retraining of engineers in software and design tools, customers are loath to make a switch to a competing vendor. Consequently, if the Xilinx deal goes through, AMD will have acquired a wide moat business. Management guides for operational efficiencies of approximately $300 million within 18 months of closing the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>去年年底，AMD达成协议收购现场可编程门阵列(FPGA)芯片领域的领导者Xilinx(XLNX)。FPGA可用于多种应用。由于转向竞争对手的FPGA提供商需要对工程师进行软件和设计工具方面的再培训，因此客户不愿意转向竞争对手的供应商。因此，如果Xilinx交易成功，AMD将获得一条宽阔的护城河业务。交易完成后18个月内运营效率约3亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> The Xilinx acquisition should bolster AMD’s data center and artificial intelligence businesses.</p><p><blockquote>收购Xilinx应该会增强AMD的数据中心和人工智能业务。</blockquote></p><p> AMD agreed to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion in an all-stock transaction.</p><p><blockquote>AMD同意以350亿美元的全股票交易收购赛灵思。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Survey of NVIDIA</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达调查</b></blockquote></p><p> NVDA's focus on the graphics processing units market has led the company to a dominant position in the discrete GPU space. The firm is the leader in discrete GPUs for computing platforms, especially gaming consoles. The fact that Intel licensed intellectual property from NVIDIA to integrate GPUs into its PC chipset testifies to the lead the company maintains.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA对图形处理单元市场的关注使该公司在独立GPU领域占据了主导地位。该公司是计算平台（尤其是游戏机）独立GPU领域的领导者。英特尔从英伟达获得知识产权许可，将GPU集成到其PC芯片组中，这一事实证明了该公司保持的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below provides a record of the burgeoning ASP the company has been able to command over the last half decade, beginning with the Pascal architecture in 2016, and progressing through Turing to Ampere.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司在过去五年中能够控制的蓬勃发展的ASP，从2016年的Pascal架构开始，通过Turing发展到Ampere。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fb1d71f9df02f6c63907fe784b2fd8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:AMD Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The firm’s chips are also found in many high-end PCs, and NVDA has particular strength in the incipient AI and self-driving vehicle markets.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的芯片也存在于许多高端PC中，NVDA在新兴的人工智能和自动驾驶汽车市场尤其具有优势。</blockquote></p><p> GPUs are being teamed with CPUs to enhance computation workloads. This stratagem is designed to bolster the ability of AI systems to perform computationally intensive tasks. AI related to autonomous vehicles is a developing strength for NVIDIA. Another arena in which the firm is making its mark is in cloud</p><p><blockquote>GPU正与CPU结合使用，以增强计算工作负载。这一策略旨在增强人工智能系统执行计算密集型任务的能力。与自动驾驶汽车相关的人工智能是英伟达的发展优势。该公司崭露头角的另一个领域是云领域</blockquote></p><p> AI and data centers pose the most likely avenue of growth for NVDA. To strengthen its position in both businesses, the company moved last year to acquire ARM Holdings (ARMHF) from parent company Softbank for $40 billion.</p><p><blockquote>人工智能和数据中心是NVDA最有可能的增长途径。为了加强其在这两项业务中的地位，该公司去年以400亿美元从母公司软银手中收购了ARM Holdings(ARMHF)。</blockquote></p><p> ARM is the globe’s largest licensor of chip designs. Its chips are ubiquitous and can be found in mobile phones, smart TVs, and tablet computers. 160 billion chips have been made using ARM designs.</p><p><blockquote>ARM是全球最大的芯片设计许可方。它的芯片无处不在，手机、智能电视、平板电脑都能找到。使用ARM设计制造了1600亿个芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Perhaps of equal importance is that 13 million developers work with ARM devices. To place that in context, NVDA has 2 million developers working on its array of devices.</p><p><blockquote>也许同样重要的是，有1300万开发人员使用ARM设备。从背景来看，NVDA有200万开发人员在开发其设备系列。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately for investors, bothChinaand theU.K.are reportedly balking at approving the deal.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说不幸的是，据报道，中国和英国都不愿批准这笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Head-To-Head Comparisons</b></p><p><blockquote><b>头对头比较</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值指标</b></blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a variety of metrics related to each stock's valuation. All data labeled forward is analysts’ next fiscal year consensus estimate.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了与每只股票估值相关的各种指标。所有标有前瞻性的数据都是分析师对下一财年的一致预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bdeabcd2ea473601fbaaaa03235de77\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, I’m using a graph to provide PEG ratios for the three companies. As there can be fairly wide variations in PEG ratios due to analysts’ inputs, I prefer that readers have access to multiple sources when I find wide variance in the ratio.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我用图表来提供这三家公司的PEG比率。由于分析师的输入可能会导致PEG比率存在相当大的差异，因此当我发现比率存在较大差异时，我希望读者能够访问多个来源。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884fc2142d97afcc9e2308e50058dd45\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Note that Seeking Alpha provides a three to five-year PEG, Schwab simply lists its metric as a PEG ratio, while Yahoo! Finance calculates a five-year ratio. This could explain some of the variance in the numbers provided.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，Seeking Alpha提供了三到五年的PEG，嘉信理财只是将其指标列为PEG比率，而雅虎！财务计算五年比率。这可以解释所提供数字中的一些差异。</blockquote></p><p> Perusing the first chart, it is obvious that NVDA is the most overvalued. It is also interesting to note that in the current P/E and the forward price/cash flow estimates show AMD as valued near the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>仔细阅读第一张图表，很明显NVDA是最被高估的。还值得注意的是，当前市盈率和远期价格/现金流估计显示AMD的估值接近行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Count me as an investor that places great emphasis on a stocks PEG Ratio. Viewing the second chart, AMD has the best PEG of the three companies. I also note that analysts from each source calculated AMD’s PEG ratio as better than the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>我是一个非常重视股票PEG比率的投资者。查看第二张图表，AMD的PEG是三家公司中最好的。我还注意到，各来源的分析师计算出AMD的PEG比率均优于行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Do not misinterpret my findings. While INTC has a lower valuation in many respects, when considering other factors, I rate AMD higher overall. In other words, it is not the cheapest valuation but the best valuation, for lack of a better means to articulate my view.</p><p><blockquote>不要误解我的发现。虽然INTC在很多方面的估值较低，但考虑到其他因素，我对AMD的整体评价较高。换句话说，这不是最便宜的估值，而是最好的估值，因为缺乏更好的方式来表达我的观点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Analysts’ Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师的价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA shares currently trade for $202.95. The average 12-month price target of 33 analysts is $186.49. The average price target of the 17 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $210.53, about 3.7% above the current price of the stock.</p><p><blockquote>NVIDIA股价目前交易价格为202.95美元。33位分析师的平均12个月目标价为186.49美元。在最新财报发布后对该股进行评级的17名分析师的平均目标价为210.53美元，比该股当前价格高出约3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> AMD shares currently trade for $107.58. The average 12-month price target of 28 analysts is $108.56. The average price target of the 11 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $117.27, roughly 9% above the prevailing share price.</p><p><blockquote>AMD股价目前交易价格为107.58美元。28位分析师的平均12个月目标价为108.56美元。在最新财报发布后对该股进行评级的11位分析师的平均目标价为117.27美元，比当前股价高出约9%。</blockquote></p><p> Intel shares currently trade for $54.05. The average 12-month price target of 34 analysts is $59.86. The average price target of the 16 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $58.97, a 9% premium over the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔股价目前交易价格为54.05美元。34位分析师的平均12个月目标价为59.86美元。在最新财报发布后对该股进行评级的16位分析师的平均目标价为58.97美元，较当前股价溢价9%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that it has been nearly three months since NVDA posted quarterly earnings while INTC and AMD reported recently.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，自NVDA公布季度收益而INTC和AMD最近公布季度收益以来，已经过去了近三个月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Tie AMD/INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=Tie AMD/INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Growth Rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长率</b></blockquote></p><p> The next chart provides data for growth rates. Unless otherwise noted, the metrics reflect analysts' average two-year forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>下一张图表提供了增长率数据。除非另有说明，这些指标反映了分析师的平均两年预测。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8ae1b79b3731a985fc209e626ca4886\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While investors familiar with these three companies would expect INTC to perform poorly in relation to NVDA and AMD in regarding growth, in several cases Intel is projected to experience negative growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>虽然熟悉这三家公司的投资者预计INTC在增长方面的表现不如NVDA和AMD，但在某些情况下，英特尔预计将出现负增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices projected growth leads that of NVIDIA in every category, and at times by very wide margins.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices的预计增长在每个类别中都领先于NVIDIA，有时甚至大幅领先。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> I considered providing a chart outlining the profitability of each company; however, suffice it to say that each is highly profitable, and that a juxtaposition of the three would result in a tie.</p><p><blockquote>我考虑提供一张图表，概述每家公司的盈利能力；然而，只要说每一个都是高利润就足够了，三者并置会导致平局。</blockquote></p><p> I often provide a comparison that breaks down dividend metrics, but AMD does not pay a dividend, and NVDA has an anemic yield. INTC currently yields about 2.6%. The dividend is well funded.</p><p><blockquote>我经常提供分解股息指标的比较，但AMD不支付股息，而NVDA的收益率也很低。INTC目前的收益率约为2.6%。股息资金充足。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务指标</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA had $12.67 billion in cash and $5.96 billion at the end of the last quarter. Should the ARM acquisition meet approval, the deal is structured so that $21 billion of the $40 billion purchase price will be in stock.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达拥有126.7亿美元现金，上季度末为59.6亿美元。如果ARM收购获得批准，该交易的结构将使400亿美元收购价格中的210亿美元将是股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMD has restructured its debt resulting in reduced interest costs. AMD had about $3.8 billion in cash and $313 million in long-term debt at the end of the most recent quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD重组了债务，从而降低了利息成本。截至最近一个季度末，AMD拥有约38亿美元现金和3.13亿美元长期债务。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's has solid investment-grade credit ratings. The company held nearly $24.86 billion cash at the end of the last quarter and had $31.7 billion long-term debt.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔拥有可靠的投资级信用评级。截至上季度末，该公司持有近248.6亿美元现金，长期债务为317亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All three firms have strong financial positions. Weighing the possibility that NVDA and AMD may add debt due to prospective acquisitions, I am rating the three firms as equals.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司都拥有强劲的财务状况。考虑到NVDA和AMD可能因潜在收购而增加债务的可能性，我对这三家公司的评级相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>R&D Budgets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>研发预算</b></blockquote></p><p> This is the first time I have compared the R&D budgets of companies for a head-to-head showdown. However, in the semiconductor industry, that can be of pivotal importance.</p><p><blockquote>这是我第一次比较企业的研发预算进行正面对决。然而，在半导体行业，这可能至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> Last fiscal year, Intel devoted over $13.5 billion to R&D, NVDA spent nearly $2.83 billion, and AMD budgeted a bit over $1.9 billion on research and development.</p><p><blockquote>上一财年，英特尔在研发上投入了超过135亿美元，NVDA花费了近28.3亿美元，AMD的研发预算略高于19亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> AMD is at a clear disadvantage, and that weakness is magnified because it often competes against INTC and NVDA in different arenas. It should be noted that a portion of Intel’s R&D is funneled to its foundry business. Nevertheless, it is the clear winner here, and AMD is the obvious loser.</p><p><blockquote>AMD处于明显的劣势，而且这种劣势被放大了，因为它经常在不同的领域与INTC和NVDA竞争。应该指出的是，英特尔的部分研发资金流向了其代工业务。尽管如此，它是这里明显的赢家，AMD是明显的输家。</blockquote></p><p> I should add that NVDA is chipping away at AMD’s share of the discrete GPU market, and I believe that trend will continue, in part due to the disparity in R&D budgets.</p><p><blockquote>我应该补充一点，NVDA正在蚕食AMD在独立GPU市场的份额，我相信这种趋势将继续下去，部分原因是研发预算的差异。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一句话：最好的芯片股是哪只？</b></blockquote></p><p> To arrive at an answer, much depends on whether NVIDIA can complete its acquisition of ARM.</p><p><blockquote>要得出答案，很大程度上取决于英伟达能否完成对ARM的收购。</blockquote></p><p> Because ARM processors are more power and cost-efficient than x86 chips, NVDA could gain market share in the data center space. Since around a third of Intel’s revenue flows from data centers, that could represent a headwind for INTC and a positive for NVDA. However, there is a good chance the deal will fail to close.</p><p><blockquote>由于ARM处理器比x86芯片更强大、更具成本效益，NVDA可以在数据中心领域获得市场份额。由于英特尔大约三分之一的收入来自数据中心，这可能对INTC来说是一个阻力，对NVDA来说是一个积极的因素。然而，这笔交易很有可能无法完成。</blockquote></p><p> The degree of success Intel finds as its planned foundries come online is another factor that should be weighed.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔计划的代工厂上线后取得的成功程度是另一个应该权衡的因素。</blockquote></p><p> A development to be weighed is that AMD has now reached parity with INTC in the PC market in terms of the quality of its products. Furthermore, AMD is gaining market share in the server market, and I expect that trend to continue.</p><p><blockquote>一个需要权衡的发展是，就其产品质量而言，AMD现在已经在PC市场上与INTC持平。此外，AMD正在服务器市场获得市场份额，我预计这一趋势将持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, AMD is losing share in the discrete GPU market to NVDA. NVDA has a technological lead in that space which will probably continue.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD正在将独立GPU市场的份额输给NVDA。NVDA在该领域拥有技术领先地位，这种领先地位可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> While AMD and NVDA are seen as growth machines, one should not ignore that Intel’s Internet of Things business increased by 47% in the last quarter. Mobileye also saw a surge in growth with revenue increasing 124%. Although these businesses only totaled $1.3 billion in revenue, a fraction of Intel's total revenue of $18.5 billion, they still represent areas of high growth.</p><p><blockquote>虽然AMD和NVDA被视为增长机器，但人们不应忽视英特尔的物联网业务在上个季度增长了47%。Mobileye也出现了大幅增长，收入增长了124%。尽管这些业务的总收入只有13亿美元，与英特尔185亿美元的总收入相比只是一小部分，但它们仍然代表着高增长领域。</blockquote></p><p> However, note the header refers to “chip stock.” Consequently, technological advantages are but one part of the puzzle. Any investment decision must take current valuations and prospective growth rates into account.</p><p><blockquote>但是，请注意标题指的是“芯片库存”。因此，技术优势只是难题的一部分。任何投资决策都必须考虑当前估值和预期增长率。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, I must rate NVIDIA as a HOLD due to current valuation and growth estimates. Note my rating is based on the current valuation of the stock. I acknowledge the exemplary leadership of the company and believe the long-term prospect for the stock is excellent.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，由于目前的估值和增长预期，我必须将英伟达评级为持有。请注意，我的评级基于该股票的当前估值。我承认该公司堪称典范的领导力，并相信该股票的长期前景非常好。</blockquote></p><p> I also rate INTC as a HOLD. I previously rated the company as a buy. While I still believe the firm will serve long-term investors well, I now believe its recovery will unfold over a long time span, and better opportunities are available.</p><p><blockquote>我也将INTC评级为持有。我之前将该公司评级为买入。虽然我仍然相信该公司将很好地为长期投资者服务，但我现在相信它的复苏将在很长一段时间内展开，并且会有更好的机会。</blockquote></p><p> I rate AMD as a BUY. This is based on the current valuations and growth rates outlined in this article. I’ll add that those metrics are buttressed by my perception that as Intel works on its recovery, AMD is likely to chip away at market share.</p><p><blockquote>我将AMD评级为买入。这是基于本文概述的当前估值和增长率。我要补充的是，这些指标得到了我的看法的支持，即随着英特尔努力复苏，AMD可能会蚕食市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights into the technological aspects of an investment in AMD and INTC, I recommend an excellent article by SA contributor Keyanoush Razavidinani.</p><p><blockquote>为了更多地了解投资AMD和INTC的技术方面，我推荐SA撰稿人Keyanoush Razavidinani的一篇优秀文章。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AMD, Intel, And Nvidia: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?<blockquote>AMD、英特尔和英伟达：哪个是最好的芯片股？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAMD, Intel, And Nvidia: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?<blockquote>AMD、英特尔和英伟达：哪个是最好的芯片股？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 10:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>AMD's recent CPU and GPU offerings have been more competitive with Intel and NVIDIA's products.</li> <li>AMD’s EPYC server chips have proved to be comparable or even superior to certain Intel chips and have led to AMD gaining server CPU market share.</li> <li>Even so, Intel is the leader in the processor market and holds long-term advantages over AMD in R&D, marketing, and pricing.</li> <li>Nvidia is ahead of AMD in GPU technology and is leveraging its GPUs into adjacent end markets such as artificial intelligence.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a8f0aee0f3d10db76a1ee18fe604b40\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Andy/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>AMD最近的CPU和GPU产品与英特尔和英伟达的产品相比更具竞争力。</li><li>事实证明，AMD的EPYC服务器芯片可以与某些英特尔芯片相媲美，甚至优于某些英特尔芯片，并使AMD获得了服务器CPU市场份额。</li><li>即便如此，英特尔仍是处理器市场的领导者，在研发、营销和定价方面相对于AMD拥有长期优势。</li><li>英伟达在GPU技术上领先于AMD，并正在利用其GPU进入人工智能等邻近的终端市场。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安迪/iStock来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Intel (INTC) was once the microchip industry equivalent of the Colossus of Rhodes, a monument to the power of Moore’s law. However, the firm stumbled with its 10-nanometer process, and recently announced its 7-nm process will be delayed until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔（INTC）曾经是微芯片行业的巨人罗德斯岛，是摩尔定律力量的纪念碑。然而，该公司在10纳米工艺上遇到了麻烦，最近宣布其7纳米工艺将推迟到2023年。</blockquote></p><p> This left the door open to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), and that firm has taken full advantage of the opportunity. AMD has taken a large share of the CPU market and is making inroads into the once nearly impenetrable server market.</p><p><blockquote>这为Advanced Micro Devices Inc.(AMD)敞开了大门，该公司充分利用了这个机会。AMD已经占据了CPU市场的很大份额，并正在进军曾经几乎难以渗透的服务器市场。</blockquote></p><p> AMD now has seven consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth under its belt, and it appears the firm is gaining momentum: management now guides for 60% revenue growth for the full year, up from the 50% forecast provided in the previous quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD目前已连续七个季度实现两位数的收入增长，而且该公司似乎正在获得动力：管理层目前预计全年收入增长60%，高于上一季度提供的50%的预测。</blockquote></p><p> However, AMD also competes with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), and the latter company’s GPU technology is stealing market share. NVDA has also been successful in gaining access to adjacent markets with its GPUs, especially AI and automotive markets.</p><p><blockquote>然而，AMD也与英伟达公司（NVDA）竞争，后者公司的GPU技术正在窃取市场份额。NVDA还凭借其GPU成功进入了邻近市场，尤其是人工智能和汽车市场。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Ins And Outs of Intel</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英特尔的来龙去脉</b></blockquote></p><p> An understanding of Intel also provides insights into AMD. This is due to the overlap between the two companies, particularly in regards to x86 chips. Intel developed the x86 chip in 1978. To satisfy demands by IBM that Intel would not be the sole supplier of the chips, INTC provided x86 instruction set architecture licensing to AMD.</p><p><blockquote>对英特尔的了解也提供了对AMD的洞察。这是由于两家公司之间的重叠，特别是在x86芯片方面。英特尔在1978年开发了x86芯片。为了满足IBM要求英特尔不是芯片的唯一供应商，INTC向AMD提供了x86指令集架构许可。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, Intel and AMD have a duopoly position in the PC and server markets, as nearly all computer software is written for x86 architecture. The result is that both have a wide moat related to the x86 ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>因此，英特尔和AMD在PC和服务器市场处于双头垄断地位，因为几乎所有的计算机软件都是为x86架构编写的。结果是两者都拥有与x86生态系统相关的宽阔护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Gaming consoles in particular are based on x86 architecture due to those platforms generally providing more powerful CPUs and GPUs with multiple compute cores. Like PCs, consoles operate with games that use x86 based software. Once again, this stifles potential competition from ARM-based devices.</p><p><blockquote>特别是游戏控制台基于x86架构，因为这些平台通常提供具有多个计算核心的更强大的CPU和GPU。像PC一样，游戏机运行使用基于x86的软件的游戏。这再次扼杀了来自基于ARM的设备的潜在竞争。</blockquote></p><p> Until fairly recently, AMD was a distant second to INTC as a supplier of x86 chips. However, AMD teamed with Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM)to use that manufacturer’s 7nm process to surpass INTC in process technology. Combined with AMD’s developing new innovative chip designs, this one-two punch resulted in INTC losing significant market share.</p><p><blockquote>直到最近，AMD在x86芯片供应商方面还远远落后于INTC。然而，AMD与台积电（NYSE：TSM）合作，使用该制造商的7纳米工艺，在工艺技术上超越了INTC。再加上AMD正在开发新的创新芯片设计，这种组合拳导致INTC失去了大量的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> At the end of Q1, AMD held 19.30% of the x86 desktop market, a 70 basis point gain year-over-year. In Q2 AMD corralled 8% of the server market, up from a 5% market share in Q4 of 2019.</p><p><blockquote>截至第一季度末，AMD占据x86台式机市场19.30%的份额，同比增长70个基点。第二季度，AMD占据了服务器市场8%的份额，高于2019年第四季度5%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Despite these setbacks, it seems premature to view Intel as a moribund business. INTC is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world. The firm dominates the server market, and still holds 60% of the global x86 CPU market.</p><p><blockquote>尽管遭遇了这些挫折，但将英特尔视为一个垂死的企业似乎还为时过早。INTC是世界上最大的半导体公司之一。该公司在服务器市场占据主导地位，并且仍然占据全球x86 CPU市场的60%。</blockquote></p><p> The company has an enormous R&D budget, and it is expanding into new markets, primarily Artificial Intelligence, Field-Programmable Gate Array chips, and automotive offerings, through its acquisitions of Habana Labs, Altera, Movidius, and Mobileye.</p><p><blockquote>该公司拥有庞大的研发预算，并正在通过收购Habana Labs、Altera、Movidius和Mobileye扩展到新市场，主要是人工智能、现场可编程门阵列芯片和汽车产品。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should not be swayed by the claim that Intel’s new 10nm chips are inferior to 7nm solely on the basis that 7 is superior to 10. While once used to denote the technology level of a chip design, it has been misused to the point of being useless.</p><p><blockquote>投资者不应该仅仅因为7优于10而被英特尔新的10纳米芯片不如7纳米的说法所左右。虽然曾经用来表示芯片设计的技术水平，但它已经被误用到了无用的地步。</blockquote></p><p> However, there are a number of concerns that must be acknowledged. Intel lags competitors in the smartphone market. As consumers shift to mobile devices, this could result in a sustained headwind as smartphones take the place of PCs. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that INTC’s server processor business has seen growth associated with the surge in mobile devices and cloud computing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，有一些问题必须承认。英特尔在智能手机市场落后于竞争对手。随着消费者转向移动设备，随着智能手机取代个人电脑，这可能会导致持续的阻力。另一方面，应该承认，INTC的服务器处理器业务随着移动设备和云计算的激增而增长。</blockquote></p><p> Intel also faces increased competition from AMD in the data center space, as well as customers developing their own ARM-based chips for CPUs.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔还面临着来自AMD在数据中心领域日益激烈的竞争，以及客户为CPU开发自己的基于ARM的芯片。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An Overview of AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AMD概述</b></blockquote></p><p> In years past, INTC held the lion’s share of the x86 market. This was due in part to Intel’s leading-edge manufacturing combined with AMD’s wafer supply agreements with less than stellar GlobalFoundries.</p><p><blockquote>过去几年，INTC占据了x86市场的最大份额。这部分归功于英特尔领先的制造以及AMD与不太出色的GlobalFoundries签订的晶圆供应协议。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> However, a seismic shift occurred due to three factors: driven by innovative designs, AMD brought competitive products to market, AMD shifted to TSMC for production, and Intel faced repeated manufacturing delays. The two charts below document the progress the company has made.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于三个因素，发生了翻天覆地的转变：在创新设计的推动下，AMD将有竞争力的产品推向市场，AMD转向台积电生产，英特尔面临一再的制造延迟。下面两张图表记录了公司取得的进展。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/903df41d5400c9807ff487a75a7e5450\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/331cd14b666f520a62d0746d5fadfa5b\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"989\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Q2 Earnings Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：第二季度收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Like Intel, AMD’s primary products are CPUs and GPUs. AMD’s chips are designed for PCs, game consoles, servers, and blockchain applications. And like INTC, AMD’s offerings are largely protected from competition due to the preponderance of software for PCs and servers being designed for x86 architecture.</p><p><blockquote>与英特尔一样，AMD的主要产品是CPU和GPU。AMD的芯片专为PC、游戏机、服务器和区块链应用而设计。与INTC一样，由于为x86架构设计的PC和服务器软件占主导地位，AMD的产品在很大程度上免受竞争。</blockquote></p><p> AMD’s strong growth has largely come at the expense of Intel as AMD has steadily chipped away at the former company’s CPU market share.</p><p><blockquote>AMD的强劲增长很大程度上是以牺牲英特尔为代价的，因为AMD稳步蚕食了英特尔的CPU市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7f8fbcab5da8a24d01d2b6408bd5686\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> AMD’s focus on CPU and GPU semi-custom processor applications has resulted in their use in Microsoft Xbox and Sony PlayStation game consoles.</p><p><blockquote>AMD对CPU和GPU半定制处理器应用的关注导致了它们在微软Xbox和Sony PlayStation游戏机中的使用。</blockquote></p><p> In regards to PC integrated GPUs, AMD is roughly in parity with NVIDIA while INTC dominates with roughly 68% of the market.</p><p><blockquote>在PC集成GPU方面，AMD与NVIDIA大致相当，而INTC以大约68%的市场份额占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67a0fe74d986cf882623a8f39587d0d8\" tg-width=\"544\" tg-height=\"394\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:tom'sHARDWARE</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：汤姆五金</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, NVIDIA dominates the discrete GPU space with an 80% plus market share with AMD sweeping up what is left. NVIDIA’s discrete GPUs are arguably superior to AMD’s (more on that later); therefore, investors should not look for growth here.</p><p><blockquote>然而，NVIDIA以80%以上的市场份额主导着独立GPU领域，AMD席卷了剩下的市场份额。NVIDIA的独立GPU可以说优于AMD的（稍后会详细介绍）；因此，投资者不应该在这里寻找增长。</blockquote></p><p> Although AMD’s EPYC server CPU products were competitive with that of rivals, initially the company relied on aggressive pricing to promote its first generation of EPYC offerings. However, the EPYC line has gained wider acceptance, and with the Milan processors, the company is gaining market share. As server CPUs provide a better profit margin than the company’s other products, expansion into that space should aid in driving revenue.</p><p><blockquote>尽管AMD的EPYC服务器CPU产品与竞争对手相比具有竞争力，但最初该公司依靠激进的定价来推广其第一代EPYC产品。然而，EPYC系列已经获得了更广泛的认可，随着米兰处理器的推出，该公司正在获得市场份额。由于服务器CPU比该公司的其他产品提供了更好的利润率，因此向该领域的扩张应该有助于增加收入。</blockquote></p><p> Late last year,AMD entered intoa deal to acquire Xilinx (XLNX), a leader in field programmable gate array (FPGA) chips. FPGAs can be used for a wide variety of applications. Because shifting to a competing FPGA provider requires retraining of engineers in software and design tools, customers are loath to make a switch to a competing vendor. Consequently, if the Xilinx deal goes through, AMD will have acquired a wide moat business. Management guides for operational efficiencies of approximately $300 million within 18 months of closing the transaction.</p><p><blockquote>去年年底，AMD达成协议收购现场可编程门阵列(FPGA)芯片领域的领导者Xilinx(XLNX)。FPGA可用于多种应用。由于转向竞争对手的FPGA提供商需要对工程师进行软件和设计工具方面的再培训，因此客户不愿意转向竞争对手的供应商。因此，如果Xilinx交易成功，AMD将获得一条宽阔的护城河业务。交易完成后18个月内运营效率约3亿美元的管理指南。</blockquote></p><p> The Xilinx acquisition should bolster AMD’s data center and artificial intelligence businesses.</p><p><blockquote>收购Xilinx应该会增强AMD的数据中心和人工智能业务。</blockquote></p><p> AMD agreed to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion in an all-stock transaction.</p><p><blockquote>AMD同意以350亿美元的全股票交易收购赛灵思。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Survey of NVIDIA</b></p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达调查</b></blockquote></p><p> NVDA's focus on the graphics processing units market has led the company to a dominant position in the discrete GPU space. The firm is the leader in discrete GPUs for computing platforms, especially gaming consoles. The fact that Intel licensed intellectual property from NVIDIA to integrate GPUs into its PC chipset testifies to the lead the company maintains.</p><p><blockquote>NVDA对图形处理单元市场的关注使该公司在独立GPU领域占据了主导地位。该公司是计算平台（尤其是游戏机）独立GPU领域的领导者。英特尔从英伟达获得知识产权许可，将GPU集成到其PC芯片组中，这一事实证明了该公司保持的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below provides a record of the burgeoning ASP the company has been able to command over the last half decade, beginning with the Pascal architecture in 2016, and progressing through Turing to Ampere.</p><p><blockquote>下图记录了该公司在过去五年中能够控制的蓬勃发展的ASP，从2016年的Pascal架构开始，通过Turing发展到Ampere。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04fb1d71f9df02f6c63907fe784b2fd8\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:AMD Investor Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：AMD投资者介绍</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The firm’s chips are also found in many high-end PCs, and NVDA has particular strength in the incipient AI and self-driving vehicle markets.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的芯片也存在于许多高端PC中，NVDA在新兴的人工智能和自动驾驶汽车市场尤其具有优势。</blockquote></p><p> GPUs are being teamed with CPUs to enhance computation workloads. This stratagem is designed to bolster the ability of AI systems to perform computationally intensive tasks. AI related to autonomous vehicles is a developing strength for NVIDIA. Another arena in which the firm is making its mark is in cloud</p><p><blockquote>GPU正与CPU结合使用，以增强计算工作负载。这一策略旨在增强人工智能系统执行计算密集型任务的能力。与自动驾驶汽车相关的人工智能是英伟达的发展优势。该公司崭露头角的另一个领域是云领域</blockquote></p><p> AI and data centers pose the most likely avenue of growth for NVDA. To strengthen its position in both businesses, the company moved last year to acquire ARM Holdings (ARMHF) from parent company Softbank for $40 billion.</p><p><blockquote>人工智能和数据中心是NVDA最有可能的增长途径。为了加强其在这两项业务中的地位，该公司去年以400亿美元从母公司软银手中收购了ARM Holdings(ARMHF)。</blockquote></p><p> ARM is the globe’s largest licensor of chip designs. Its chips are ubiquitous and can be found in mobile phones, smart TVs, and tablet computers. 160 billion chips have been made using ARM designs.</p><p><blockquote>ARM是全球最大的芯片设计许可方。它的芯片无处不在，手机、智能电视、平板电脑都能找到。使用ARM设计制造了1600亿个芯片。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Perhaps of equal importance is that 13 million developers work with ARM devices. To place that in context, NVDA has 2 million developers working on its array of devices.</p><p><blockquote>也许同样重要的是，有1300万开发人员使用ARM设备。从背景来看，NVDA有200万开发人员在开发其设备系列。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately for investors, bothChinaand theU.K.are reportedly balking at approving the deal.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说不幸的是，据报道，中国和英国都不愿批准这笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Head-To-Head Comparisons</b></p><p><blockquote><b>头对头比较</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值指标</b></blockquote></p><p> The following chart provides a variety of metrics related to each stock's valuation. All data labeled forward is analysts’ next fiscal year consensus estimate.</p><p><blockquote>下图提供了与每只股票估值相关的各种指标。所有标有前瞻性的数据都是分析师对下一财年的一致预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1bdeabcd2ea473601fbaaaa03235de77\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, I’m using a graph to provide PEG ratios for the three companies. As there can be fairly wide variations in PEG ratios due to analysts’ inputs, I prefer that readers have access to multiple sources when I find wide variance in the ratio.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我用图表来提供这三家公司的PEG比率。由于分析师的输入可能会导致PEG比率存在相当大的差异，因此当我发现比率存在较大差异时，我希望读者能够访问多个来源。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/884fc2142d97afcc9e2308e50058dd45\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"336\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Note that Seeking Alpha provides a three to five-year PEG, Schwab simply lists its metric as a PEG ratio, while Yahoo! Finance calculates a five-year ratio. This could explain some of the variance in the numbers provided.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，Seeking Alpha提供了三到五年的PEG，嘉信理财只是将其指标列为PEG比率，而雅虎！财务计算五年比率。这可以解释所提供数字中的一些差异。</blockquote></p><p> Perusing the first chart, it is obvious that NVDA is the most overvalued. It is also interesting to note that in the current P/E and the forward price/cash flow estimates show AMD as valued near the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>仔细阅读第一张图表，很明显NVDA是最被高估的。还值得注意的是，当前市盈率和远期价格/现金流估计显示AMD的估值接近行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Count me as an investor that places great emphasis on a stocks PEG Ratio. Viewing the second chart, AMD has the best PEG of the three companies. I also note that analysts from each source calculated AMD’s PEG ratio as better than the sector median.</p><p><blockquote>我是一个非常重视股票PEG比率的投资者。查看第二张图表，AMD的PEG是三家公司中最好的。我还注意到，各来源的分析师计算出AMD的PEG比率均优于行业中位数。</blockquote></p><p> Do not misinterpret my findings. While INTC has a lower valuation in many respects, when considering other factors, I rate AMD higher overall. In other words, it is not the cheapest valuation but the best valuation, for lack of a better means to articulate my view.</p><p><blockquote>不要误解我的发现。虽然INTC在很多方面的估值较低，但考虑到其他因素，我对AMD的整体评价较高。换句话说，这不是最便宜的估值，而是最好的估值，因为缺乏更好的方式来表达我的观点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Analysts’ Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>分析师的价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA shares currently trade for $202.95. The average 12-month price target of 33 analysts is $186.49. The average price target of the 17 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $210.53, about 3.7% above the current price of the stock.</p><p><blockquote>NVIDIA股价目前交易价格为202.95美元。33位分析师的平均12个月目标价为186.49美元。在最新财报发布后对该股进行评级的17名分析师的平均目标价为210.53美元，比该股当前价格高出约3.7%。</blockquote></p><p> AMD shares currently trade for $107.58. The average 12-month price target of 28 analysts is $108.56. The average price target of the 11 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $117.27, roughly 9% above the prevailing share price.</p><p><blockquote>AMD股价目前交易价格为107.58美元。28位分析师的平均12个月目标价为108.56美元。在最新财报发布后对该股进行评级的11位分析师的平均目标价为117.27美元，比当前股价高出约9%。</blockquote></p><p> Intel shares currently trade for $54.05. The average 12-month price target of 34 analysts is $59.86. The average price target of the 16 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $58.97, a 9% premium over the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔股价目前交易价格为54.05美元。34位分析师的平均12个月目标价为59.86美元。在最新财报发布后对该股进行评级的16位分析师的平均目标价为58.97美元，较当前股价溢价9%。</blockquote></p><p> Investors should be aware that it has been nearly three months since NVDA posted quarterly earnings while INTC and AMD reported recently.</p><p><blockquote>投资者应该知道，自NVDA公布季度收益而INTC和AMD最近公布季度收益以来，已经过去了近三个月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Tie AMD/INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=Tie AMD/INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Growth Rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>增长率</b></blockquote></p><p> The next chart provides data for growth rates. Unless otherwise noted, the metrics reflect analysts' average two-year forecasts.</p><p><blockquote>下一张图表提供了增长率数据。除非另有说明，这些指标反映了分析师的平均两年预测。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8ae1b79b3731a985fc209e626ca4886\" tg-width=\"577\" tg-height=\"337\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source:Seeking Alpha Premium/ Chart by author</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Seeking Alpha Premium/作者图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> While investors familiar with these three companies would expect INTC to perform poorly in relation to NVDA and AMD in regarding growth, in several cases Intel is projected to experience negative growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>虽然熟悉这三家公司的投资者预计INTC在增长方面的表现不如NVDA和AMD，但在某些情况下，英特尔预计将出现负增长率。</blockquote></p><p> Advanced Micro Devices projected growth leads that of NVIDIA in every category, and at times by very wide margins.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices的预计增长在每个类别中都领先于NVIDIA，有时甚至大幅领先。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage AMD</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势AMD</b></blockquote></p><p> I considered providing a chart outlining the profitability of each company; however, suffice it to say that each is highly profitable, and that a juxtaposition of the three would result in a tie.</p><p><blockquote>我考虑提供一张图表，概述每家公司的盈利能力；然而，只要说每一个都是高利润就足够了，三者并置会导致平局。</blockquote></p><p> I often provide a comparison that breaks down dividend metrics, but AMD does not pay a dividend, and NVDA has an anemic yield. INTC currently yields about 2.6%. The dividend is well funded.</p><p><blockquote>我经常提供分解股息指标的比较，但AMD不支付股息，而NVDA的收益率也很低。INTC目前的收益率约为2.6%。股息资金充足。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Debt Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务指标</b></blockquote></p><p> NVIDIA had $12.67 billion in cash and $5.96 billion at the end of the last quarter. Should the ARM acquisition meet approval, the deal is structured so that $21 billion of the $40 billion purchase price will be in stock.</p><p><blockquote>英伟达拥有126.7亿美元现金，上季度末为59.6亿美元。如果ARM收购获得批准，该交易的结构将使400亿美元收购价格中的210亿美元将是股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMD has restructured its debt resulting in reduced interest costs. AMD had about $3.8 billion in cash and $313 million in long-term debt at the end of the most recent quarter.</p><p><blockquote>AMD重组了债务，从而降低了利息成本。截至最近一个季度末，AMD拥有约38亿美元现金和3.13亿美元长期债务。</blockquote></p><p> Intel's has solid investment-grade credit ratings. The company held nearly $24.86 billion cash at the end of the last quarter and had $31.7 billion long-term debt.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔拥有可靠的投资级信用评级。截至上季度末，该公司持有近248.6亿美元现金，长期债务为317亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> All three firms have strong financial positions. Weighing the possibility that NVDA and AMD may add debt due to prospective acquisitions, I am rating the three firms as equals.</p><p><blockquote>这三家公司都拥有强劲的财务状况。考虑到NVDA和AMD可能因潜在收购而增加债务的可能性，我对这三家公司的评级相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>R&D Budgets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>研发预算</b></blockquote></p><p> This is the first time I have compared the R&D budgets of companies for a head-to-head showdown. However, in the semiconductor industry, that can be of pivotal importance.</p><p><blockquote>这是我第一次比较企业的研发预算进行正面对决。然而，在半导体行业，这可能至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> Last fiscal year, Intel devoted over $13.5 billion to R&D, NVDA spent nearly $2.83 billion, and AMD budgeted a bit over $1.9 billion on research and development.</p><p><blockquote>上一财年，英特尔在研发上投入了超过135亿美元，NVDA花费了近28.3亿美元，AMD的研发预算略高于19亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> AMD is at a clear disadvantage, and that weakness is magnified because it often competes against INTC and NVDA in different arenas. It should be noted that a portion of Intel’s R&D is funneled to its foundry business. Nevertheless, it is the clear winner here, and AMD is the obvious loser.</p><p><blockquote>AMD处于明显的劣势，而且这种劣势被放大了，因为它经常在不同的领域与INTC和NVDA竞争。应该指出的是，英特尔的部分研发资金流向了其代工业务。尽管如此，它是这里明显的赢家，AMD是明显的输家。</blockquote></p><p> I should add that NVDA is chipping away at AMD’s share of the discrete GPU market, and I believe that trend will continue, in part due to the disparity in R&D budgets.</p><p><blockquote>我应该补充一点，NVDA正在蚕食AMD在独立GPU市场的份额，我相信这种趋势将继续下去，部分原因是研发预算的差异。</blockquote></p><p> <b>=Advantage INTC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>=优势INTC</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bottom Line: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一句话：最好的芯片股是哪只？</b></blockquote></p><p> To arrive at an answer, much depends on whether NVIDIA can complete its acquisition of ARM.</p><p><blockquote>要得出答案，很大程度上取决于英伟达能否完成对ARM的收购。</blockquote></p><p> Because ARM processors are more power and cost-efficient than x86 chips, NVDA could gain market share in the data center space. Since around a third of Intel’s revenue flows from data centers, that could represent a headwind for INTC and a positive for NVDA. However, there is a good chance the deal will fail to close.</p><p><blockquote>由于ARM处理器比x86芯片更强大、更具成本效益，NVDA可以在数据中心领域获得市场份额。由于英特尔大约三分之一的收入来自数据中心，这可能对INTC来说是一个阻力，对NVDA来说是一个积极的因素。然而，这笔交易很有可能无法完成。</blockquote></p><p> The degree of success Intel finds as its planned foundries come online is another factor that should be weighed.</p><p><blockquote>英特尔计划的代工厂上线后取得的成功程度是另一个应该权衡的因素。</blockquote></p><p> A development to be weighed is that AMD has now reached parity with INTC in the PC market in terms of the quality of its products. Furthermore, AMD is gaining market share in the server market, and I expect that trend to continue.</p><p><blockquote>一个需要权衡的发展是，就其产品质量而言，AMD现在已经在PC市场上与INTC持平。此外，AMD正在服务器市场获得市场份额，我预计这一趋势将持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, AMD is losing share in the discrete GPU market to NVDA. NVDA has a technological lead in that space which will probably continue.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，AMD正在将独立GPU市场的份额输给NVDA。NVDA在该领域拥有技术领先地位，这种领先地位可能会持续下去。</blockquote></p><p> While AMD and NVDA are seen as growth machines, one should not ignore that Intel’s Internet of Things business increased by 47% in the last quarter. Mobileye also saw a surge in growth with revenue increasing 124%. Although these businesses only totaled $1.3 billion in revenue, a fraction of Intel's total revenue of $18.5 billion, they still represent areas of high growth.</p><p><blockquote>虽然AMD和NVDA被视为增长机器，但人们不应忽视英特尔的物联网业务在上个季度增长了47%。Mobileye也出现了大幅增长，收入增长了124%。尽管这些业务的总收入只有13亿美元，与英特尔185亿美元的总收入相比只是一小部分，但它们仍然代表着高增长领域。</blockquote></p><p> However, note the header refers to “chip stock.” Consequently, technological advantages are but one part of the puzzle. Any investment decision must take current valuations and prospective growth rates into account.</p><p><blockquote>但是，请注意标题指的是“芯片库存”。因此，技术优势只是难题的一部分。任何投资决策都必须考虑当前估值和预期增长率。</blockquote></p><p> With that in mind, I must rate NVIDIA as a HOLD due to current valuation and growth estimates. Note my rating is based on the current valuation of the stock. I acknowledge the exemplary leadership of the company and believe the long-term prospect for the stock is excellent.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这一点，由于目前的估值和增长预期，我必须将英伟达评级为持有。请注意，我的评级基于该股票的当前估值。我承认该公司堪称典范的领导力，并相信该股票的长期前景非常好。</blockquote></p><p> I also rate INTC as a HOLD. I previously rated the company as a buy. While I still believe the firm will serve long-term investors well, I now believe its recovery will unfold over a long time span, and better opportunities are available.</p><p><blockquote>我也将INTC评级为持有。我之前将该公司评级为买入。虽然我仍然相信该公司将很好地为长期投资者服务，但我现在相信它的复苏将在很长一段时间内展开，并且会有更好的机会。</blockquote></p><p> I rate AMD as a BUY. This is based on the current valuations and growth rates outlined in this article. I’ll add that those metrics are buttressed by my perception that as Intel works on its recovery, AMD is likely to chip away at market share.</p><p><blockquote>我将AMD评级为买入。这是基于本文概述的当前估值和增长率。我要补充的是，这些指标得到了我的看法的支持，即随着英特尔努力复苏，AMD可能会蚕食市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> For additional insights into the technological aspects of an investment in AMD and INTC, I recommend an excellent article by SA contributor Keyanoush Razavidinani.</p><p><blockquote>为了更多地了解投资AMD和INTC的技术方面，我推荐SA撰稿人Keyanoush Razavidinani的一篇优秀文章。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448637-amd-intel-nvidia-best-chip-stock\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dad74e350b9b09d45929989f896aaa9d","relate_stocks":{"AMD":"美国超微公司","INTC":"英特尔","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4448637-amd-intel-nvidia-best-chip-stock","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138705612","content_text":"Summary\n\nAMD's recent CPU and GPU offerings have been more competitive with Intel and NVIDIA's products.\nAMD’s EPYC server chips have proved to be comparable or even superior to certain Intel chips and have led to AMD gaining server CPU market share.\nEven so, Intel is the leader in the processor market and holds long-term advantages over AMD in R&D, marketing, and pricing.\nNvidia is ahead of AMD in GPU technology and is leveraging its GPUs into adjacent end markets such as artificial intelligence.\n\nAndy/iStock via Getty Images\nIntel (INTC) was once the microchip industry equivalent of the Colossus of Rhodes, a monument to the power of Moore’s law. However, the firm stumbled with its 10-nanometer process, and recently announced its 7-nm process will be delayed until 2023.\nThis left the door open to Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD), and that firm has taken full advantage of the opportunity. AMD has taken a large share of the CPU market and is making inroads into the once nearly impenetrable server market.\nAMD now has seven consecutive quarters of double-digit revenue growth under its belt, and it appears the firm is gaining momentum: management now guides for 60% revenue growth for the full year, up from the 50% forecast provided in the previous quarter.\nHowever, AMD also competes with NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), and the latter company’s GPU technology is stealing market share. NVDA has also been successful in gaining access to adjacent markets with its GPUs, especially AI and automotive markets.\nThe Ins And Outs of Intel\nAn understanding of Intel also provides insights into AMD. This is due to the overlap between the two companies, particularly in regards to x86 chips. Intel developed the x86 chip in 1978. To satisfy demands by IBM that Intel would not be the sole supplier of the chips, INTC provided x86 instruction set architecture licensing to AMD.\nConsequently, Intel and AMD have a duopoly position in the PC and server markets, as nearly all computer software is written for x86 architecture. The result is that both have a wide moat related to the x86 ecosystem.\nGaming consoles in particular are based on x86 architecture due to those platforms generally providing more powerful CPUs and GPUs with multiple compute cores. Like PCs, consoles operate with games that use x86 based software. Once again, this stifles potential competition from ARM-based devices.\nUntil fairly recently, AMD was a distant second to INTC as a supplier of x86 chips. However, AMD teamed with Taiwan Semiconductor(NYSE:TSM)to use that manufacturer’s 7nm process to surpass INTC in process technology. Combined with AMD’s developing new innovative chip designs, this one-two punch resulted in INTC losing significant market share.\nAt the end of Q1, AMD held 19.30% of the x86 desktop market, a 70 basis point gain year-over-year. In Q2 AMD corralled 8% of the server market, up from a 5% market share in Q4 of 2019.\nDespite these setbacks, it seems premature to view Intel as a moribund business. INTC is one of the largest semiconductor companies in the world. The firm dominates the server market, and still holds 60% of the global x86 CPU market.\nThe company has an enormous R&D budget, and it is expanding into new markets, primarily Artificial Intelligence, Field-Programmable Gate Array chips, and automotive offerings, through its acquisitions of Habana Labs, Altera, Movidius, and Mobileye.\nInvestors should not be swayed by the claim that Intel’s new 10nm chips are inferior to 7nm solely on the basis that 7 is superior to 10. While once used to denote the technology level of a chip design, it has been misused to the point of being useless.\nHowever, there are a number of concerns that must be acknowledged. Intel lags competitors in the smartphone market. As consumers shift to mobile devices, this could result in a sustained headwind as smartphones take the place of PCs. On the other hand, it should be acknowledged that INTC’s server processor business has seen growth associated with the surge in mobile devices and cloud computing.\nIntel also faces increased competition from AMD in the data center space, as well as customers developing their own ARM-based chips for CPUs.\nAn Overview of AMD\nIn years past, INTC held the lion’s share of the x86 market. This was due in part to Intel’s leading-edge manufacturing combined with AMD’s wafer supply agreements with less than stellar GlobalFoundries.\nHowever, a seismic shift occurred due to three factors: driven by innovative designs, AMD brought competitive products to market, AMD shifted to TSMC for production, and Intel faced repeated manufacturing delays. The two charts below document the progress the company has made.\nSource:Q2 Earnings Presentation\nSource:Q2 Earnings Presentation\nLike Intel, AMD’s primary products are CPUs and GPUs. AMD’s chips are designed for PCs, game consoles, servers, and blockchain applications. And like INTC, AMD’s offerings are largely protected from competition due to the preponderance of software for PCs and servers being designed for x86 architecture.\nAMD’s strong growth has largely come at the expense of Intel as AMD has steadily chipped away at the former company’s CPU market share.\nSource:Seeking Alpha\nAMD’s focus on CPU and GPU semi-custom processor applications has resulted in their use in Microsoft Xbox and Sony PlayStation game consoles.\nIn regards to PC integrated GPUs, AMD is roughly in parity with NVIDIA while INTC dominates with roughly 68% of the market.\nSource:tom'sHARDWARE\nHowever, NVIDIA dominates the discrete GPU space with an 80% plus market share with AMD sweeping up what is left. NVIDIA’s discrete GPUs are arguably superior to AMD’s (more on that later); therefore, investors should not look for growth here.\nAlthough AMD’s EPYC server CPU products were competitive with that of rivals, initially the company relied on aggressive pricing to promote its first generation of EPYC offerings. However, the EPYC line has gained wider acceptance, and with the Milan processors, the company is gaining market share. As server CPUs provide a better profit margin than the company’s other products, expansion into that space should aid in driving revenue.\nLate last year,AMD entered intoa deal to acquire Xilinx (XLNX), a leader in field programmable gate array (FPGA) chips. FPGAs can be used for a wide variety of applications. Because shifting to a competing FPGA provider requires retraining of engineers in software and design tools, customers are loath to make a switch to a competing vendor. Consequently, if the Xilinx deal goes through, AMD will have acquired a wide moat business. Management guides for operational efficiencies of approximately $300 million within 18 months of closing the transaction.\nThe Xilinx acquisition should bolster AMD’s data center and artificial intelligence businesses.\nAMD agreed to acquire Xilinx for $35 billion in an all-stock transaction.\nA Survey of NVIDIA\nNVDA's focus on the graphics processing units market has led the company to a dominant position in the discrete GPU space. The firm is the leader in discrete GPUs for computing platforms, especially gaming consoles. The fact that Intel licensed intellectual property from NVIDIA to integrate GPUs into its PC chipset testifies to the lead the company maintains.\nThe chart below provides a record of the burgeoning ASP the company has been able to command over the last half decade, beginning with the Pascal architecture in 2016, and progressing through Turing to Ampere.\nSource:AMD Investor Presentation\nThe firm’s chips are also found in many high-end PCs, and NVDA has particular strength in the incipient AI and self-driving vehicle markets.\nGPUs are being teamed with CPUs to enhance computation workloads. This stratagem is designed to bolster the ability of AI systems to perform computationally intensive tasks. AI related to autonomous vehicles is a developing strength for NVIDIA. Another arena in which the firm is making its mark is in cloud\nAI and data centers pose the most likely avenue of growth for NVDA. To strengthen its position in both businesses, the company moved last year to acquire ARM Holdings (ARMHF) from parent company Softbank for $40 billion.\nARM is the globe’s largest licensor of chip designs. Its chips are ubiquitous and can be found in mobile phones, smart TVs, and tablet computers. 160 billion chips have been made using ARM designs.\nPerhaps of equal importance is that 13 million developers work with ARM devices. To place that in context, NVDA has 2 million developers working on its array of devices.\nUnfortunately for investors, bothChinaand theU.K.are reportedly balking at approving the deal.\nHead-To-Head Comparisons\nValuation Metrics\nThe following chart provides a variety of metrics related to each stock's valuation. All data labeled forward is analysts’ next fiscal year consensus estimate.\nSource:Seeking Alpha Premium/ chart by author\nNext, I’m using a graph to provide PEG ratios for the three companies. As there can be fairly wide variations in PEG ratios due to analysts’ inputs, I prefer that readers have access to multiple sources when I find wide variance in the ratio.\nChart by author\nNote that Seeking Alpha provides a three to five-year PEG, Schwab simply lists its metric as a PEG ratio, while Yahoo! Finance calculates a five-year ratio. This could explain some of the variance in the numbers provided.\nPerusing the first chart, it is obvious that NVDA is the most overvalued. It is also interesting to note that in the current P/E and the forward price/cash flow estimates show AMD as valued near the sector median.\nCount me as an investor that places great emphasis on a stocks PEG Ratio. Viewing the second chart, AMD has the best PEG of the three companies. I also note that analysts from each source calculated AMD’s PEG ratio as better than the sector median.\nDo not misinterpret my findings. While INTC has a lower valuation in many respects, when considering other factors, I rate AMD higher overall. In other words, it is not the cheapest valuation but the best valuation, for lack of a better means to articulate my view.\n=Advantage AMD\nAnalysts’ Price Targets\nNVIDIA shares currently trade for $202.95. The average 12-month price target of 33 analysts is $186.49. The average price target of the 17 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $210.53, about 3.7% above the current price of the stock.\nAMD shares currently trade for $107.58. The average 12-month price target of 28 analysts is $108.56. The average price target of the 11 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $117.27, roughly 9% above the prevailing share price.\nIntel shares currently trade for $54.05. The average 12-month price target of 34 analysts is $59.86. The average price target of the 16 analysts that rated the stock following the latest earnings report is $58.97, a 9% premium over the current share price.\nInvestors should be aware that it has been nearly three months since NVDA posted quarterly earnings while INTC and AMD reported recently.\n=Tie AMD/INTC\nGrowth Rates\nThe next chart provides data for growth rates. Unless otherwise noted, the metrics reflect analysts' average two-year forecasts.\nSource:Seeking Alpha Premium/ Chart by author\nWhile investors familiar with these three companies would expect INTC to perform poorly in relation to NVDA and AMD in regarding growth, in several cases Intel is projected to experience negative growth rates.\nAdvanced Micro Devices projected growth leads that of NVIDIA in every category, and at times by very wide margins.\n=Advantage AMD\nI considered providing a chart outlining the profitability of each company; however, suffice it to say that each is highly profitable, and that a juxtaposition of the three would result in a tie.\nI often provide a comparison that breaks down dividend metrics, but AMD does not pay a dividend, and NVDA has an anemic yield. INTC currently yields about 2.6%. The dividend is well funded.\nDebt Metrics\nNVIDIA had $12.67 billion in cash and $5.96 billion at the end of the last quarter. Should the ARM acquisition meet approval, the deal is structured so that $21 billion of the $40 billion purchase price will be in stock.\nAMD has restructured its debt resulting in reduced interest costs. AMD had about $3.8 billion in cash and $313 million in long-term debt at the end of the most recent quarter.\nIntel's has solid investment-grade credit ratings. The company held nearly $24.86 billion cash at the end of the last quarter and had $31.7 billion long-term debt.\nAll three firms have strong financial positions. Weighing the possibility that NVDA and AMD may add debt due to prospective acquisitions, I am rating the three firms as equals.\nR&D Budgets\nThis is the first time I have compared the R&D budgets of companies for a head-to-head showdown. However, in the semiconductor industry, that can be of pivotal importance.\nLast fiscal year, Intel devoted over $13.5 billion to R&D, NVDA spent nearly $2.83 billion, and AMD budgeted a bit over $1.9 billion on research and development.\nAMD is at a clear disadvantage, and that weakness is magnified because it often competes against INTC and NVDA in different arenas. It should be noted that a portion of Intel’s R&D is funneled to its foundry business. Nevertheless, it is the clear winner here, and AMD is the obvious loser.\nI should add that NVDA is chipping away at AMD’s share of the discrete GPU market, and I believe that trend will continue, in part due to the disparity in R&D budgets.\n=Advantage INTC\nBottom Line: Which Is The Best Chip Stock?\nTo arrive at an answer, much depends on whether NVIDIA can complete its acquisition of ARM.\nBecause ARM processors are more power and cost-efficient than x86 chips, NVDA could gain market share in the data center space. Since around a third of Intel’s revenue flows from data centers, that could represent a headwind for INTC and a positive for NVDA. However, there is a good chance the deal will fail to close.\nThe degree of success Intel finds as its planned foundries come online is another factor that should be weighed.\nA development to be weighed is that AMD has now reached parity with INTC in the PC market in terms of the quality of its products. Furthermore, AMD is gaining market share in the server market, and I expect that trend to continue.\nOn the other hand, AMD is losing share in the discrete GPU market to NVDA. NVDA has a technological lead in that space which will probably continue.\nWhile AMD and NVDA are seen as growth machines, one should not ignore that Intel’s Internet of Things business increased by 47% in the last quarter. Mobileye also saw a surge in growth with revenue increasing 124%. Although these businesses only totaled $1.3 billion in revenue, a fraction of Intel's total revenue of $18.5 billion, they still represent areas of high growth.\nHowever, note the header refers to “chip stock.” Consequently, technological advantages are but one part of the puzzle. Any investment decision must take current valuations and prospective growth rates into account.\nWith that in mind, I must rate NVIDIA as a HOLD due to current valuation and growth estimates. Note my rating is based on the current valuation of the stock. I acknowledge the exemplary leadership of the company and believe the long-term prospect for the stock is excellent.\nI also rate INTC as a HOLD. I previously rated the company as a buy. While I still believe the firm will serve long-term investors well, I now believe its recovery will unfold over a long time span, and better opportunities are available.\nI rate AMD as a BUY. This is based on the current valuations and growth rates outlined in this article. I’ll add that those metrics are buttressed by my perception that as Intel works on its recovery, AMD is likely to chip away at market share.\nFor additional insights into the technological aspects of an investment in AMD and INTC, I recommend an excellent article by SA contributor Keyanoush Razavidinani.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"INTC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830165072,"gmtCreate":1629031920396,"gmtModify":1631893595293,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089599132652130","idStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830165072","repostId":"1127633167","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1127633167","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628997765,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1127633167?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 11:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这10只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1127633167","media":"Barrons","summary":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors loo","content":"<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资界最流行的流行语之一是“复合者”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike或Visa的成长型投资者寻求寻找能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长（最好是两者兼而有之）的公司。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股价应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在五到十年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的“10 bagger”——一只回报率是你购买价格10倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified in a <i>Barron’s</i> cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的报告和投资专业人士的客户信函中充满了compounder的参考资料。许多下一代价值管理者，在<i>巴伦周刊</i>五月的封面故事，正在寻找这样的股票，而不是传统的廉价股票的价值票价。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高昂的价格。真正的大赢家很少。Durable Capital Partners的数据显示，在一系列10年期间，只有约35家公司的股价每年复合增长率达到20%或以上，导致股价至少上涨了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意继续投资大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i> sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦周刊</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，并列出了一份包含10只股票的折衷清单，其中大多数股票的市值低于100亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的10只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table> <thead> <tr> <th>Company / Ticker</th> <th>Recent Price</th> <th>YTD Change</th> <th>2021E P/E</th> <th>2021E Price/Sales</th> <th>2022E P/E</th> <th>2022E Price/Sales</th> <th>LT Growth Rate*</th> <th>Market Value (bil)</th> <th>Comment</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amedysis / AMED</td> <td>$185.15</td> <td>-37%</td> <td>30.2</td> <td>2.7</td> <td>27.7</td> <td>2.4</td> <td>10.5%</td> <td>$6.3</td> <td>Leader in home health care</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amyris / AMRS</td> <td>13.64</td> <td>121</td> <td>NM</td> <td>10.4</td> <td>NM</td> <td>9.7</td> <td>NA</td> <td>4.1</td> <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td> <td>81.73</td> <td>-6</td> <td>19.4</td> <td>1.3</td> <td>17.7</td> <td>1.2</td> <td>8.6</td> <td>11.0</td> <td>Defense-department consultant</td> </tr> <tr> <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td> <td>172.76</td> <td>26</td> <td>25.8</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>22.2</td> <td>1.4</td> <td>18.4</td> <td>18.2</td> <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td> <td>147.15</td> <td>7</td> <td>40.9</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>15.7</td> <td>1.4</td> <td>NA</td> <td>6.3</td> <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td> </tr> <tr> <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td> <td>197.10</td> <td>24</td> <td>45.7</td> <td>2.6</td> <td>43.5</td> <td>2.5</td> <td>19.3</td> <td>8.8</td> <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td> <td>138.19</td> <td>74</td> <td>192.3</td> <td>28.6</td> <td>140.8</td> <td>22.5</td> <td>30.0</td> <td>6.6</td> <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td> <td>44.38</td> <td>-24</td> <td>NM</td> <td>1.9</td> <td>1890.3</td> <td>1.7</td> <td>30.0</td> <td>4.8</td> <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Trex / TREX</td> <td>105.94</td> <td>27</td> <td>51.9</td> <td>10.5</td> <td>43.6</td> <td>9.3</td> <td>18.8</td> <td>12.2</td> <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Upwork / UPWK</td> <td>44.31</td> <td>28</td> <td>NM</td> <td>11.4</td> <td>556.8</td> <td>9.2</td> <td>NA</td> <td>5.7</td> <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年预计市盈率</th><th>2021E价格/销售额</th><th>2022年预计市盈率</th><th>2022E价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Amedysis/AMED</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>Amyris/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>NM</td><td>10.4</td><td>NM</td><td>9.7</td><td>NA</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领域的领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦控股/BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B.亨特运输服务/JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>多式联运货运实力强劲</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>NA</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/站点</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>园林绿化用品大供应商</td></tr><tr><td>Staar外科/STAA</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/SFIX</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>NM</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动的订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex/Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>顶级合成木地板制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork/UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>NM</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>NA</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH预估适用于截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX预估为截至2022年7月和2023年7月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的年度每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys(AMED)是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚小盘成长基金经理丹·科尔预测，“该行业将会出现大规模整合”。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移。”</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍多。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，下调了2021年财务指引，股价约为185美元，下跌了近30%。2021年盈利预期目前为每股6.13美元，低于近7美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍有能力实现每股收益10%的年增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris(AMRS)是合成生物学领域的领导者。它的粉丝们说，它的机会是以一种环保的方式取代一系列现在由石化产品、动物和植物制成的产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗生产角鲨烷等产品，这是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；和通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为13美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i> wrote favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦周刊</i>7月份对该公司进行了好评。Amyris预计，在其消费品牌的推动下，到2025年销售额将达到20亿美元，高于今年预计的4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>拥有Amyris股票的Pinnacle Associates的投资组合经理兰迪·巴伦(Randy Baron)表示：“世界需要清洁化学，而Amyris是创造清洁化学的关键。”他认为到2022年底它们可能会达到75美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府最近一财年的收入占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务与政府建立了牢固的关系。其股价约为81美元，收益率为1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>T.Rowe Price New Horizons基金经理乔什·斯宾塞(Josh Spencer)表示：“它建立了强大的、类似伙伴关系的文化，并拥有长期稳定增长的记录。”他认为博思艾伦有能力实现9%至10%的收入年增长率和15%至16%的盈利年增长率，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支更加克制，该股较100美元的峰值下跌了20%。斯宾塞将回调视为买入机会，该股的市盈率不到20倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B.亨特运输服务公司(JBHT)是多式联运货运领域的领导者，该领域涉及卡车在铁路线上的省油运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。其股价在过去20年中上涨了30倍，最近达到173美元。“它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权，”Durable Capital Partners首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利·埃伦博根(Henry Ellenbogen)表示。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B.他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司的关系使其在多式联运货运领域拥有强大的地位。J.B.亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还参与数字货运经纪业务——为卡车司机和航运客户牵线搭桥。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen表示，考虑到盈利年增长率为十几岁左右，该股2022年预计利润的22倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有700,000名业主，拥有富有弹性的商业模式，从费用中获得可观的收入，并且比同行更多地接触夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>Baron Focused Growth基金经理David Baron表示：“它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。”他补充道，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为145美元，应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>Baron认为，根据2022年的预测，该股的自由现金流收益率为11%，价格低廉。他表示，该股自2018年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能为股东带来20%的年回报率。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE)是该国最大的景观美化产品供应商，鉴于其在高度分散的行业中仅占13%的市场份额，因此有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚大学的科尔表示：“它正在有机增长，并且有很多收购机会。”他认为该公司的年收入有能力增长10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股股价约为197美元，估值很高，交易价格是2022年预计每股收益4.54美元的43倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar外科公司（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于全球视力问题的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，这款镜片已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>Baillie Gifford全球经理道格·布罗迪(Doug Brodie)表示：“它的销量可能会很大。它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。”</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼的晶状体可以在不到一个小时内植入，而且不需要移除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar股价最近为138美元，其估值超过2022年预计销售额的20倍，是2022年预计收益的140倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix(SFIX)开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“这可能是未来的诺德斯特龙，”Stitch Fix持有者Marathon Partners Equity Management首席投资官马里奥·西贝利(Mario Cibelli)表示。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题。”Stitch Fix利用6000名个人造型师和大量数据，试图确定订户的品味，以产生高满意度，并限制每隔一段时间发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者对潜在客户流失和业务最终盈利能力的担忧，其股价约为44美元，较今年早些时候的水平下跌了60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli预计收入每年将增长20%以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内业务可能会非常有利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex(TREX)是甲板高端木材替代品的顶级生产商，其95%来自回收材料，使其成为一种环保的住房。该股股价为105美元，是2022年预计市盈率的43倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T.Rowe Price的Spencer认为Trex物有所值，因为他认为它可以产生15%至20%的可持续年收入增长。预计2022年盈利将增长约20%，并在接下来的几年中以类似的速度增长。“如果你把时间拨快三年，它看起来并没有那么贵，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork(UPWK)是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到Baillie Gifford的Brodie的青睐，他表示，它可以让企业更好地接受自由职业者。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>该股最近约为44美元，并不便宜。Upwork的估值为57亿美元，是今年预计销售额近5亿美元的10倍以上。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于快速销售增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长30%以上，2022年将增长25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“自由职业者更容易被中小型企业接受，但大型企业的人力资源部门却不喜欢他们，”布罗迪说。Upwork旨在通过审查自由职业者和提供数千种技能来改变这种看法。“Upwork可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这10只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 10 Standout Stocks Could Be the Next Amazon<blockquote>这10只杰出股票可能成为下一个亚马逊</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 11:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>当今投资界最流行的流行语之一是“复合者”。寻找下一个亚马逊、Costco Wholesale、Nike或Visa的成长型投资者寻求寻找能够在未来几年实现收入和盈利两位数复合增长（最好是两者兼而有之）的公司。</blockquote></p><p> The idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock that returns 10 times what you paid for it.</p><p><blockquote>这个想法是，股价应该与收入和利润保持一致，使投资者能够在五到十年的持有期内产生高回报。最终目标是找到难以捉摸的“10 bagger”——一只回报率是你购买价格10倍的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified in a <i>Barron’s</i> cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街分析师的报告和投资专业人士的客户信函中充满了compounder的参考资料。许多下一代价值管理者，在<i>巴伦周刊</i>五月的封面故事，正在寻找这样的股票，而不是传统的廉价股票的价值票价。</blockquote></p><p> Their search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.</p><p><blockquote>他们的搜索变得更具挑战性，因为买家正在为高增长的故事支付高昂的价格。真正的大赢家很少。Durable Capital Partners的数据显示，在一系列10年期间，只有约35家公司的股价每年复合增长率达到20%或以上，导致股价至少上涨了六倍。</blockquote></p><p> Many investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and Eli Lilly(LLY).</p><p><blockquote>许多投资者很乐意继续投资大型知名复合商，例如Alphabet（股票代码：GOOGL）、万事达卡（MA）、联合健康集团（UNH）和礼来公司（LLY）。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i> sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦周刊</i>试图确定较小的候选人。我们与投资经理进行了交谈，并列出了一份包含10只股票的折衷清单，其中大多数股票的市值低于100亿美元。以下是按字母顺序排列的选择：</blockquote></p><p> Strong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.</p><p><blockquote>强劲而稳定的胜利以下是成长型投资者认为能够多年来持续实现收入或利润高增长的10只股票。</blockquote></p><p> <table> <thead> <tr> <th>Company / Ticker</th> <th>Recent Price</th> <th>YTD Change</th> <th>2021E P/E</th> <th>2021E Price/Sales</th> <th>2022E P/E</th> <th>2022E Price/Sales</th> <th>LT Growth Rate*</th> <th>Market Value (bil)</th> <th>Comment</th> </tr> </thead> <tbody> <tr> <td>Amedysis / AMED</td> <td>$185.15</td> <td>-37%</td> <td>30.2</td> <td>2.7</td> <td>27.7</td> <td>2.4</td> <td>10.5%</td> <td>$6.3</td> <td>Leader in home health care</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Amyris / AMRS</td> <td>13.64</td> <td>121</td> <td>NM</td> <td>10.4</td> <td>NM</td> <td>9.7</td> <td>NA</td> <td>4.1</td> <td>Leading company in synthetic biology</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Booz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH</td> <td>81.73</td> <td>-6</td> <td>19.4</td> <td>1.3</td> <td>17.7</td> <td>1.2</td> <td>8.6</td> <td>11.0</td> <td>Defense-department consultant</td> </tr> <tr> <td>J.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT</td> <td>172.76</td> <td>26</td> <td>25.8</td> <td>1.5</td> <td>22.2</td> <td>1.4</td> <td>18.4</td> <td>18.2</td> <td>Strong in intermodal freight</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Marriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC</td> <td>147.15</td> <td>7</td> <td>40.9</td> <td>1.6</td> <td>15.7</td> <td>1.4</td> <td>NA</td> <td>6.3</td> <td>Top company in vacation timeshares</td> </tr> <tr> <td>SiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE</td> <td>197.10</td> <td>24</td> <td>45.7</td> <td>2.6</td> <td>43.5</td> <td>2.5</td> <td>19.3</td> <td>8.8</td> <td>Big supplier of landscaping supplies</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Staar Surgical / STAA</td> <td>138.19</td> <td>74</td> <td>192.3</td> <td>28.6</td> <td>140.8</td> <td>22.5</td> <td>30.0</td> <td>6.6</td> <td>Maker of implantable lens for myopia</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Stitch Fix / SFIX</td> <td>44.38</td> <td>-24</td> <td>NM</td> <td>1.9</td> <td>1890.3</td> <td>1.7</td> <td>30.0</td> <td>4.8</td> <td>Data-driven subscription clothing firm</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Trex / TREX</td> <td>105.94</td> <td>27</td> <td>51.9</td> <td>10.5</td> <td>43.6</td> <td>9.3</td> <td>18.8</td> <td>12.2</td> <td>Top maker of synthetic wood decking</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Upwork / UPWK</td> <td>44.31</td> <td>28</td> <td>NM</td> <td>11.4</td> <td>556.8</td> <td>9.2</td> <td>NA</td> <td>5.7</td> <td>Online clearinghouse for free-lancers</td> </tr> </tbody> </table> E=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.</p><p><blockquote><table><thead><tr><th>公司/股票代码</th><th>近期价格</th><th>年初至今变化</th><th>2021年预计市盈率</th><th>2021E价格/销售额</th><th>2022年预计市盈率</th><th>2022E价格/销售额</th><th>LT增长率*</th><th>市值（bil）</th><th>评论</th></tr></thead><tbody><tr><td>Amedysis/AMED</td><td>$185.15</td><td>-37%</td><td>30.2</td><td>2.7</td><td>27.7</td><td>2.4</td><td>10.5%</td><td>$6.3</td><td>家庭医疗保健领域的领导者</td></tr><tr><td>Amyris/AMRS</td><td>13.64</td><td>121</td><td>NM</td><td>10.4</td><td>NM</td><td>9.7</td><td>NA</td><td>4.1</td><td>合成生物学领域的领先公司</td></tr><tr><td>博思艾伦控股/BAH</td><td>81.73</td><td>-6</td><td>19.4</td><td>1.3</td><td>17.7</td><td>1.2</td><td>8.6</td><td>11.0</td><td>国防部顾问</td></tr><tr><td>J.B.亨特运输服务/JBHT</td><td>172.76</td><td>26</td><td>25.8</td><td>1.5</td><td>22.2</td><td>1.4</td><td>18.4</td><td>18.2</td><td>多式联运货运实力强劲</td></tr><tr><td>万豪度假全球/VAC</td><td>147.15</td><td>7</td><td>40.9</td><td>1.6</td><td>15.7</td><td>1.4</td><td>NA</td><td>6.3</td><td>度假分时度假顶级公司</td></tr><tr><td>SiteOne景观供应/站点</td><td>197.10</td><td>24</td><td>45.7</td><td>2.6</td><td>43.5</td><td>2.5</td><td>19.3</td><td>8.8</td><td>园林绿化用品大供应商</td></tr><tr><td>Staar外科/STAA</td><td>138.19</td><td>74</td><td>192.3</td><td>28.6</td><td>140.8</td><td>22.5</td><td>30.0</td><td>6.6</td><td>近视植入式镜片制造商</td></tr><tr><td>缝合固定/SFIX</td><td>44.38</td><td>-24</td><td>NM</td><td>1.9</td><td>1890.3</td><td>1.7</td><td>30.0</td><td>4.8</td><td>数据驱动的订阅服装公司</td></tr><tr><td>Trex/Trex</td><td>105.94</td><td>27</td><td>51.9</td><td>10.5</td><td>43.6</td><td>9.3</td><td>18.8</td><td>12.2</td><td>顶级合成木地板制造商</td></tr><tr><td>Upwork/UPWK</td><td>44.31</td><td>28</td><td>NM</td><td>11.4</td><td>556.8</td><td>9.2</td><td>NA</td><td>5.7</td><td>自由职业者在线信息交换所</td></tr></tbody></table>E=估计值。BAH预估适用于截至2022年3月和3月23日的财年。SFIX预估为截至2022年7月和2023年7月的财年。NM=无意义。NA=不可用。*公司未来3-5年可维持的年度每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> Source: FactSet</p><p><blockquote>来源：FactSet</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys(AMED)是一家家庭医疗保健和临终关怀服务提供商，业务仍然分散，业务遍及全国。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚小盘成长基金经理丹·科尔预测，“该行业将会出现大规模整合”。“医疗保健正在向家庭转移。”</blockquote></p><p> Amedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.</p><p><blockquote>Amedisys股价在过去十年中上涨了十倍多。但该公司最近以与新冠疫情相关的人员配备和成本问题（主要是收购的临终关怀业务）为由，下调了2021年财务指引，股价约为185美元，下跌了近30%。2021年盈利预期目前为每股6.13美元，低于近7美元。该股的交易价格是2021年预计利润的30倍。科尔表示，该公司仍有能力实现每股收益10%的年增长。</blockquote></p><p> Amyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris(AMRS)是合成生物学领域的领导者。它的粉丝们说，它的机会是以一种环保的方式取代一系列现在由石化产品、动物和植物制成的产品。</blockquote></p><p> Using genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.</p><p><blockquote>Amyris使用基因改造的酵母和甘蔗生产角鲨烷等产品，这是一种以前由鲨鱼肝制成的高端保湿剂；香草醛，香草的调味料；和通常来源于植物的无热量甜味剂。该股交易价格约为13美元。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Barron’s</i> wrote favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.</p><p><blockquote><i>巴伦周刊</i>7月份对该公司进行了好评。Amyris预计，在其消费品牌的推动下，到2025年销售额将达到20亿美元，高于今年预计的4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> “The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>拥有Amyris股票的Pinnacle Associates的投资组合经理兰迪·巴伦(Randy Baron)表示：“世界需要清洁化学，而Amyris是创造清洁化学的关键。”他认为到2022年底它们可能会达到75美元。</blockquote></p><p> Booz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.</p><p><blockquote>博思艾伦控股公司（BAH）是国防部和其他机构的重要顾问。美国政府最近一财年的收入占其收入的97%。多年来，博思艾伦通过提供网络安全等一系列服务与政府建立了牢固的关系。其股价约为81美元，收益率为1.8%。</blockquote></p><p> “It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.</p><p><blockquote>T.Rowe Price New Horizons基金经理乔什·斯宾塞(Josh Spencer)表示：“它建立了强大的、类似伙伴关系的文化，并拥有长期稳定增长的记录。”他认为博思艾伦有能力实现9%至10%的收入年增长率和15%至16%的盈利年增长率，与其历史表现一致。由于担心军费开支更加克制，该股较100美元的峰值下跌了20%。斯宾塞将回调视为买入机会，该股的市盈率不到20倍。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the Barron’s Roundtable.</p><p><blockquote>J.B.亨特运输服务公司(JBHT)是多式联运货运领域的领导者，该领域涉及卡车在铁路线上的省油运输。它是最成功的卡车运输公司之一。其股价在过去20年中上涨了30倍，最近达到173美元。“它拥有令人难以置信的特许经营权，”Durable Capital Partners首席投资官、《巴伦周刊》圆桌会议成员亨利·埃伦博根(Henry Ellenbogen)表示。</blockquote></p><p> J.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.</p><p><blockquote>J.B.他指出，亨特与伯灵顿北圣达菲铁路公司的关系使其在多式联运货运领域拥有强大的地位。J.B.亨特的业务也在不断增长，接管了小公司的卡车运输业务。它还参与数字货运经纪业务——为卡车司机和航运客户牵线搭桥。</blockquote></p><p> Ellenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Ellenbogen表示，考虑到盈利年增长率为十几岁左右，该股2022年预计利润的22倍是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Marriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.</p><p><blockquote>万豪度假全球（VAC）是分时度假行业的顶级公司之一。它拥有700,000名业主，拥有富有弹性的商业模式，从费用中获得可观的收入，并且比同行更多地接触夏威夷和佛罗里达州奥兰多等地的豪华房产。</blockquote></p><p> “It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.</p><p><blockquote>Baron Focused Growth基金经理David Baron表示：“它拥有最好的客户群、最高的支出和无可挑剔的资产负债表。”他补充道，万豪度假公司的股价最近约为145美元，应该会在今年晚些时候恢复股息。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>Baron认为，根据2022年的预测，该股的自由现金流收益率为11%，价格低廉。他表示，该股自2018年以来几乎没有变化，未来几年可能为股东带来20%的年回报率。</blockquote></p><p> SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.</p><p><blockquote>SiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE)是该国最大的景观美化产品供应商，鉴于其在高度分散的行业中仅占13%的市场份额，因此有充足的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.</p><p><blockquote>哥伦比亚大学的科尔表示：“它正在有机增长，并且有很多收购机会。”他认为该公司的年收入有能力增长10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> The stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.</p><p><blockquote>该股股价约为197美元，估值很高，交易价格是2022年预计每股收益4.54美元的43倍。</blockquote></p><p> Staar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.</p><p><blockquote>Staar外科公司（STAA）开发了一种可植入晶状体来矫正近视（近视）。鉴于全球视力问题的发病率不断上升，这解决了一个潜在的巨大市场。该公司预计，这款镜片已在欧洲和亚洲上市至少五年，将于第四季度进入美国市场，等待美国食品和药物管理局的批准。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”</p><p><blockquote>Baillie Gifford全球经理道格·布罗迪(Doug Brodie)表示：“它的销量可能会很大。它还处于起步阶段，基本上没有竞争。”</blockquote></p><p> Lenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.</p><p><blockquote>双眼的晶状体可以在不到一个小时内植入，而且不需要移除天然晶状体。在美国，每个镜片的批发成本可能在1000美元左右。</blockquote></p><p> At a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.</p><p><blockquote>Staar股价最近为138美元，其估值超过2022年预计销售额的20倍，是2022年预计收益的140倍。但市场机会是巨大的：到2050年，全球约有50亿人可能患有近视。</blockquote></p><p> Stitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.</p><p><blockquote>Stitch Fix(SFIX)开发了服装、鞋子和其他配饰的订阅服务，拥有超过400万客户。</blockquote></p><p> “This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.</p><p><blockquote>“这可能是未来的诺德斯特龙，”Stitch Fix持有者Marathon Partners Equity Management首席投资官马里奥·西贝利(Mario Cibelli)表示。“这是一个潜在的巨大市场，没有人以同样的方式解决这个问题。”Stitch Fix利用6000名个人造型师和大量数据，试图确定订户的品味，以产生高满意度，并限制每隔一段时间发送并由订户决定的包裹的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Its shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者对潜在客户流失和业务最终盈利能力的担忧，其股价约为44美元，较今年早些时候的水平下跌了60%。</blockquote></p><p> Yet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Cibelli预计收入每年将增长20%以上，在当前美国和英国市场之外还有机会，并且在两到三年内业务可能会非常有利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Trex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Trex(TREX)是甲板高端木材替代品的顶级生产商，其95%来自回收材料，使其成为一种环保的住房。该股股价为105美元，是2022年预计市盈率的43倍。</blockquote></p><p> T. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>T.Rowe Price的Spencer认为Trex物有所值，因为他认为它可以产生15%至20%的可持续年收入增长。预计2022年盈利将增长约20%，并在接下来的几年中以类似的速度增长。“如果你把时间拨快三年，它看起来并没有那么贵，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> Upwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.</p><p><blockquote>Upwork(UPWK)是一个面向自由职业者的在线市场，受到Baillie Gifford的Brodie的青睐，他表示，它可以让企业更好地接受自由职业者。</blockquote></p><p> The shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.</p><p><blockquote>该股最近约为44美元，并不便宜。Upwork的估值为57亿美元，是今年预计销售额近5亿美元的10倍以上。它的运营略有亏损。</blockquote></p><p> The investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote>投资案例是关于快速销售增长带来丰厚收益。预计今年销售额将增长30%以上，2022年将增长25%。</blockquote></p><p> “Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“自由职业者更容易被中小型企业接受，但大型企业的人力资源部门却不喜欢他们，”布罗迪说。Upwork旨在通过审查自由职业者和提供数千种技能来改变这种看法。“Upwork可以成为越来越多企业级合作伙伴值得信赖的合作伙伴，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SITE":"SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.","VAC":"万豪度假环球","SFIX":"Stitch Fix Inc.","UPWK":"Upwork Inc.","TREX":"Trex Co Inc","AMRS":"阿米瑞斯","STAA":"STAAR Surgical Company","JBHT":"JB Hunt运输服务","BAH":"博思艾伦咨询公司","AMED":"阿米斯医疗"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-potential-compounder-growth-51628888840?mod=hp_LEADSUPP_2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1127633167","content_text":"One of the most popular buzzwords in investing today is “compounders.” Growth-oriented investors looking for the next Amazon.com, Costco Wholesale, Nike, or Visa seek to identify companies capable of generating double-digit compound growth in revenue and earnings—preferably both—for years to come.\nThe idea is that stock prices should compound in line with revenue and profits, enabling investors to generate high returns over a holding period of five to 10 years. The ultimate goal is to find the elusive “10 bagger”—a stock that returns 10 times what you paid for it.\nWall Street analyst notes and client letters from investment pros are replete with compounder references. Many of the next generation of value managers, identified in a Barron’s cover story in May, are seeking such shares, rather than the traditional value fare of cheap stocks.\nTheir search has become more challenging, because buyers are paying lofty prices for high-growth stories. Really big winners are scarce. Only about 35 companies in each of a long series of 10-year periods have compounded their stock prices at 20% or more annually, resulting in at least a sixfold increase, according to Durable Capital Partners.\nMany investors are happy to stick with large, well-known compounders, such as Alphabet(ticker: GOOGL),Mastercard(MA),UnitedHealth Group(UNH), and Eli Lilly(LLY).\nBarron’s sought to identify smaller candidates. We talked to investment managers and came up with an eclectic list of 10 stocks, most with market values under $10 billion. Here are the selections, in alphabetical order:\nStrong and Steady Wins the RaceHere are 10 stocks that growth investors have identified as being able to generate consistently high growth in revenues or profits for many years.\n\n\n\nCompany / Ticker\nRecent Price\nYTD Change\n2021E P/E\n2021E Price/Sales\n2022E P/E\n2022E Price/Sales\nLT Growth Rate*\nMarket Value (bil)\nComment\n\n\n\n\nAmedysis / AMED\n$185.15\n-37%\n30.2\n2.7\n27.7\n2.4\n10.5%\n$6.3\nLeader in home health care\n\n\nAmyris / AMRS\n13.64\n121\nNM\n10.4\nNM\n9.7\nNA\n4.1\nLeading company in synthetic biology\n\n\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding / BAH\n81.73\n-6\n19.4\n1.3\n17.7\n1.2\n8.6\n11.0\nDefense-department consultant\n\n\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services / JBHT\n172.76\n26\n25.8\n1.5\n22.2\n1.4\n18.4\n18.2\nStrong in intermodal freight\n\n\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide / VAC\n147.15\n7\n40.9\n1.6\n15.7\n1.4\nNA\n6.3\nTop company in vacation timeshares\n\n\nSiteOne Landscape Supply / SITE\n197.10\n24\n45.7\n2.6\n43.5\n2.5\n19.3\n8.8\nBig supplier of landscaping supplies\n\n\nStaar Surgical / STAA\n138.19\n74\n192.3\n28.6\n140.8\n22.5\n30.0\n6.6\nMaker of implantable lens for myopia\n\n\nStitch Fix / SFIX\n44.38\n-24\nNM\n1.9\n1890.3\n1.7\n30.0\n4.8\nData-driven subscription clothing firm\n\n\nTrex / TREX\n105.94\n27\n51.9\n10.5\n43.6\n9.3\n18.8\n12.2\nTop maker of synthetic wood decking\n\n\nUpwork / UPWK\n44.31\n28\nNM\n11.4\n556.8\n9.2\nNA\n5.7\nOnline clearinghouse for free-lancers\n\n\n\nE=Estimate. BAH estimates are for fiscal years ending March 2022 and March 23. SFIX estimates are for fiscal years ending July 2022 and July 2023. NM=Not Meaningful. NA=Not Available. *The annual EPS growth the company can sustain over the next 3-5 years.\nSource: FactSet\nAmedisys(AMED), a provider of home healthcare and hospice services, has a national footprint in a still-fragmented business.\n“There is going to be massive consolidation of the industry” predicts Dan Cole, a manager of the Columbia Small-Cap Growth fund. “Healthcare is moving to the home.”\nAmedisys stock is up more than tenfold in the past decade. But the shares, around $185, are off nearly 30% after the company recently cut 2021 financial guidance, citing Covid-related staffing and cost issues, mostly in acquired hospice operations. The 2021 earnings estimate is now $6.13 a share, down from nearly $7. The stock trades for 30 times projected 2021 profits. Cole says that the company remains capable of generating 10% annual gains in earnings per share.\nAmyris(AMRS) is a leader in synthetic biology. It fans say its opportunity is to supplant, in an eco-friendly way, a range of products now made from petrochemicals, animals, and plants.\nUsing genetically re-engineered yeast and sugar cane, Amyris produces such things as squalane, a high-end moisturizer formerly made from shark livers; vanillin, the flavoring for vanilla; and a no-calorie sweetener normally derived from plants. The stock trades around $13.\nBarron’s wrote favorably on the company in July. Amyris sees sales reaching $2 billion by 2025, up from an estimated $400 million this year, driven by its consumer brands.\n“The world needs clean chemistry, and Amyris is the point on the spear to create it,” says Randy Baron, a portfolio manager at Pinnacle Associates, which owns Amyris shares. He thinks they could hit $75 by the end of 2022.\nBooz Allen Hamilton Holding(BAH) is an important consultant to the Defense Department and other agencies. The U.S. government accounted for 97% of its revenue in its latest fiscal year. Booz Allen has built robust ties to the government over the years by providing an array of services, like cybersecurity. Its stock trades around $81, for a 1.8% yield.\n“It has built a strong, partnership-like culture and has a long record of steady growth,” says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price New Horizons fund. He sees Booz Allen as capable of generating 9% to 10% annual growth in revenue and yearly gains of 15% to 16% in earnings, in line with its historical performance. The stock is off 20% from its peak of $100, amid concerns about more restrained military spending. Spencer sees the pullback as a buying opportunity, with the stock valued at less than 20 times earnings.\nJ.B. Hunt Transport Services(JBHT) is a leader in intermodal freight, which involves the fuel-efficient movement of trucks over rail lines. It has been one of the most successful trucking companies. Its stock has risen 30-fold over the past 20 years, to a recent $173. “It has an incredible franchise,” says Henry Ellenbogen, chief investment officer at Durable Capital Partners and a member of the Barron’s Roundtable.\nJ.B. Hunt’s relationship with the Burlington Northern Santa Fe railroad gives it a strong position in intermodal freight, he notes. J.B. Hunt also has a growing business taking over the trucking operations of smaller companies. And it is involved in digital freight brokerage—matching truckers with shipping customers.\nEllenbogen says the stock is reasonable at 22 times estimated 2022 profits, given a mid-teens annual growth outlook for earnings.\nMarriott Vacations Worldwide(VAC) is one of the top companies in the timeshare industry. It has 700,000 owners, a resilient business model with significant revenue from fees, and more exposure than its peers to luxury properties in places including Hawaii and Orlando, Fla.\n“It has the best customer base, with the highest spending and an impeccable balance sheet,” says David Baron, a manager of the Baron Focused Growth fund. Marriott Vacations, whose shares recently were trading around $145, should reinstate its dividend later this year, he adds.\nThe shares, Baron argues, are cheap at a 11% free-cash-flow yield, based on 2022 estimates. He says that the stock, little changed since 2018, could produce 20% annual returns for shareholders in the coming years.\nSiteOne Landscape Supply(SITE) is the country’s top supplier of landscaping products, with ample opportunity to expand, given that it has just a 13% market share in a highly fragmented industry.\n\n“It’s growing organically and has lots of acquisition opportunities,” says Columbia’s Cole, who considers the company to be capable of 10% to 15% annual revenue growth.\nThe stock, around $197, has a rich valuation, trading for 43 times projected 2022 earnings of $4.54 a share.\nStaar Surgical(STAA) has developed an implantable lens to correct myopia (nearsightedness). That addresses a potentially huge market, given the rising global incidence of that vision problem. The company expects the lens, which has been available in Europe and Asia for at least five years, to be on the U.S. market in the fourth quarter, pending Food and Drug Administration approval.\n“It could do substantial volumes,’’ says Doug Brodie, a global manager at Baillie Gifford. “It’s early in a journey and is largely devoid of competition.”\nLenses for both eyes can be implanted in less than an hour, and they don’t involve the removal of the natural lenses. The wholesale cost in the U.S. could be around $1,000 per lens.\nAt a recent $138, Staar shares are richly valued at more than 20 times projected 2022 sales and 140 times estimated 2022 earnings. But the market opportunity is enormous: Some five billion people worldwide could have myopia by 2050.\nStitch Fix(SFIX) has developed a subscription service for clothing, shoes, and other accessories and boasts over four million customers.\n“This could be the Nordstrom of the future,” says Mario Cibelli, chief investment officer at Marathon Partners Equity Management, a Stitch Fix holder. “This a potentially huge market and nobody is addressing it in the same way.” Using a staff of 6,000 personal stylists and lots of data, Stitch Fix seeks to identify subscriber tastes to generate high satisfaction and limit returns on packages sent at intervals and determined by subscribers.\nIts shares, around $44, are down 60% from their level earlier in the year, on investors’ worries about potential churn and the business’s ultimate profitability.\nYet Cibelli sees revenue growth of 20%-plus annually, opportunities outside its current U.S. and U.K. markets, and a potentially very profitable business in two to three years.\nTrex(TREX) is the top producer of a high-end wood alternative for decks that comes from 95% recycled material, making it an eco-friendly housing play. The shares, at $105, trade for 43 times projected 2022 earnings.\nT. Rowe Price’s Spencer views Trex as worth the price, based on his view that it can generate sustainable annual revenue growth of 15% to 20%. Earnings are expected to climb by about 20% in 2022 and at a similar pace in the following years. “If you roll the clock forward three years, it doesn’t look as expensive,” he says.\nUpwork(UPWK), an online marketplace for freelance workers, is favored by Baillie Gifford’s Brodie, who says it offers a play on the greater acceptance of freelancers by businesses.\nThe shares, recently around $44, aren’t cheap. Upwork is valued at $5.7 billion, or more than 10 times this year’s projected sales of nearly $500 million. It operates at a slight loss.\nThe investment case is about rapid sales growth leading to ample earnings. Sales are expected to rise by 30%-plus this year and 25% for 2022.\n“Freelancers are more accepted by small to midsize business, but they’ve been frowned on by the HR departments at large businesses,” Brodie says. Upwork aims to change that perception by vetting its freelancers and by offering thousands of skill sets. “Upwork could become a trusted partner for an increasing number of enterprise-grade partners,” he says.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"VAC":0.9,"SFIX":0.9,"SITE":0.9,"BAH":0.9,"UPWK":0.9,"AMRS":0.9,"JBHT":0.9,"TREX":0.9,"AMED":0.9,"STAA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1044,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":891942322,"gmtCreate":1628323619666,"gmtModify":1633751647022,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089599132652130","authorIdStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891942322","repostId":"1119792130","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":600980496,"gmtCreate":1638051683349,"gmtModify":1638051683447,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089599132652130","authorIdStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600980496","repostId":"2186344334","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873062887,"gmtCreate":1636803356603,"gmtModify":1636803356724,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089599132652130","authorIdStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873062887","repostId":"1151602326","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":806542499,"gmtCreate":1627684904711,"gmtModify":1633757231754,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089599132652130","authorIdStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806542499","repostId":"2155159451","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":818,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800063709,"gmtCreate":1627266396001,"gmtModify":1633766706753,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089599132652130","authorIdStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Jialatz","listText":"Jialatz","text":"Jialatz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800063709","repostId":"1131760567","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":835,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832804690,"gmtCreate":1629602956810,"gmtModify":1631891710337,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089599132652130","authorIdStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832804690","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更容易预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股回调——长期关注这6家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要严重。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares半导体ETF较近期高点下跌超过6%，而标普500、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为2%或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股值得买入？或者这个历史上周期性的行业是否会故技重施，进入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有多年股票而不是租用几天，那么该集团是值得买入的。主要原因：“这次不一样。”</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，这些是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了如此大的变化，现在确实有所不同——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我去看看。但首先，以下是该组织现在“更安全”的三个主要原因，以及过去几天我与之交谈的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>Impax Asset Management的投资组合经理David Winborne表示：“芯片行业的需求总是由产品周期驱动而繁荣和萧条。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>个人电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长情况更容易预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益“数字化”，从各个角度来看，终端市场需求更加多样化。将远程办公服务视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>看好该集团的Gabelli Funds投资组合经理兼科技分析师Hendi Susanto指出，在线购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool芯片行业分析师John Rotonti表示：“现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。”“这意味着更多的芯片进入所有领域。长期需求是存在的。”</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他不是在开玩笑。William Blair分析师Greg Scolaro预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着你所听到的普遍供应短缺“可能要到明年年底才能得到解决”，他说<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师Vivek Arya。“这不仅仅是我们的观点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>得到了大多数大客户的确认。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.玩家已经巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上上下下，从设计到各种类型的设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合到罗通蒂·评级“赢得”的双头垄断或垄断中。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻（EUV）领域的ASML等专业领域占据主导地位。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好来赢得他们的利基或双头垄断地位。这使得投资者对它们很感兴趣。罗通蒂表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面表现得更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所提升</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力远高于历史水平。“过去几年，芯片制造的经济性有了很大改善，”温伯恩说。现金流或EBITDA利润率现在通常超过30%，而十年前还在20%左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere&Co.的投资组合经理Lamar Villere指出，尽管芯片股的交易价格约为市场倍数，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们的市盈率并不是泡沫。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>值得购买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近调查的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新的管理策略</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Thrivent的高级股票研究分析师Peter Karazeris有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司，它们的业绩可能会因为在新管理层的领导下而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳健的盈利能力。高通最近受到了一次性问题的打击，例如德克萨斯州的恶劣天气导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">安森美半导体</a>正在从手机扩展到汽车、工业和物联网互联设备领域等新领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris还特别提到了Nvidia，该公司因其卓越的设计能力而从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当像高通和英伟达这样的公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">新思科技</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool的Rotonti解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他挑出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上最快的种植者，但他们有很好的利润率。”他们也主宰着这个空间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV播放</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图放在硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板到硅片上，这一过程被称为极紫外光刻。“没有人知道如何做到这一点，”罗通蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应做到这一点的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供应过剩</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多产品，这样就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne表示，希望到2025年生产70%的芯片，高于目前的5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>这里的结果是，有大量的政府支持来促进制造业——所以会有更多的支持。风险在于未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的购买，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair的Scolaro指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>令人不安的信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人指数（PMI）在4月份达到顶峰，然后连续三个月减速。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。在Thrivent跟踪这一指标的Karazeris指出，通常情况下，两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存建设，而库存建设的可持续性不如真实的终端市场需求。因此，他将这种背离视为芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“这些通常是你在周期顶部而不是底部看到的事情，”卡拉泽里斯说。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但全球PMI放缓也有可能更多地反映了芯片短缺，而不是表明短缺并不真实（只是库存增加）。Leuthold经济学家兼策略师吉姆·保尔森(Jim Paulsen)表示：“这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会滚动并死亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。”</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布，由于芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求短缺，它不得不削减产量。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及被压抑的大件商品需求等因素，良好的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支持对所有使用芯片的产品的需求——包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNPS":"新思科技","ON":"安森美半导体","GOOG":"谷歌","TSM":"台积电","AAPL":"苹果","GOOGL":"谷歌A","ASML":"阿斯麦","SSNLF":"三星电子","NVDA":"英伟达","AMZN":"亚马逊","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","CDNS":"铿腾电子","QCOM":"高通"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CDNS":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"AMZN":0.9,"ON":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"SOXX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839445022,"gmtCreate":1629177303966,"gmtModify":1631891710354,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089599132652130","authorIdStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839445022","repostId":"1139131126","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1278,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896059668,"gmtCreate":1628546517554,"gmtModify":1631893595318,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089599132652130","authorIdStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896059668","repostId":"2158478684","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":698,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891803441,"gmtCreate":1628371515383,"gmtModify":1633751472706,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089599132652130","authorIdStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891803441","repostId":"2157492839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891803185,"gmtCreate":1628371481247,"gmtModify":1633751472950,"author":{"id":"4089599132652130","authorId":"4089599132652130","name":"7084a9ca","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4089599132652130","authorIdStr":"4089599132652130"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891803185","repostId":"1139912651","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":714,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
