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2021-08-01

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Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者当心！股市正在进入今年最危险的时期</blockquote>

2021-07-25

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2021-07-25

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2021-07-24

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2021-07-23

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2021-07-22

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Gold Trader’s Chat Bragged About ‘How Easy’ It Is to Manipulate Prices<blockquote>黄金交易员的聊天吹嘘操纵价格是“多么容易”</blockquote>

2021-07-22

Wah

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2021-07-22

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Minerd Says U.S. Stocks Could Plunge 15% in ‘Very Rough’ Autumn<blockquote>Minerd表示美国股市可能在“非常艰难”的秋季暴跌15%</blockquote>

2021-07-22

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2021-07-19

Tell me your opinion about this news...

Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be "Hotter But Shorter" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>

2021-07-19

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2021-07-19

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Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者当心！股市正在进入今年最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"<p>“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.</p><p><blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的这个时候，”乐队唱着20世纪70年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆着在海滩或烧烤时的愉快时光。没有必要提醒当时的任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote></p><p> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.</p><p><blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔(Stephen Suttmeier)汇编的1928年以来的数据，8月的到来也意味着股市将进入历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现标准普尔500指数在8月、9月和10月的平均回报率为0.03%，这是大盘股基准今年最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们构成了唯一平均亏损的三个月期间。</blockquote></p><p> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7月份标普500的平均回报率为1.58%，其中59.1%的时间为正，而9月份的平均回报率为负1.03%，只有不到一半的时间（即45%）出现在正栏中。</blockquote></p><p> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.</p><p><blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。根据道琼斯统计专家的数据，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，这是自2018年9月以来最长的连续上涨。在此期间，其累计预付款为18.34%。</blockquote></p><p> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”</p><p><blockquote>8月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为0.70%，58.1%的时间为积极结果，标志着从“夏季暴跌”到“秋季暴跌”的转变。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.</p><p><blockquote>Suttmeier发现，毫不奇怪，8月至10月期间的落后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据1992年以来的记录，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在4月至7月期间波动性相对较低后，在这几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.</p><p><blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性艰难时期，Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向据称被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以38美元的价格出售了5500万股股票。在这个过程中，它为所有参与IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一项要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期38美元至42美元范围的低端。尽管周五有所回升，但其价格在首日交易中下跌了8.4%。截至本周末，持有Robinhood IPO的买家数量下降了7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.</p><p><blockquote>卖出高价的人包括该公司的联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔·特涅夫(Vladimir Tenev)和首席创意官白菊·巴特(Baiju Bhatt)，他们在IPO中每人抛售了125万股。正如我杰出的前任艾伦·阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢观察的那样，卖出股票有很多好的理由，但期望它上涨并不是其中之一。考虑到富有的所有者有能力通过廉价借贷将其资产货币化，并且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未像现在这样真实。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，特涅夫和巴特仍然在罗宾汉拥有大量股份。正如我们的同事Avi Salzman报道的那样，按首次发行价计算，这些股票价值25亿美元，Tenev和Bhatt保留了投票权。如果股价达到300美元，或者接近众所周知的十倍，两人还可以获得Tenev价值高达67亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt价值40亿美元的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”</p><p><blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪至34,248美元，这是美国工人的平均年薪。正如喜剧演员雅科夫·斯米尔诺夫喜欢说的：“多好的国家啊！”</blockquote></p><p> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.</p><p><blockquote>这些工人的状况将成为定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote></p><p> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测约为90万人。杰富瑞(Jefferies)经济学家Aneta Markowska和Thomas Simons估计，增幅可能会突破期待已久的100万大关；他们预测有120万。</blockquote></p><p> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)</p><p><blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有重大争议的问题。（有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事。）</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者当心！股市正在进入今年最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者当心！股市正在进入今年最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-01 11:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.</p><p><blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的这个时候，”乐队唱着20世纪70年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆着在海滩或烧烤时的愉快时光。没有必要提醒当时的任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote></p><p> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.</p><p><blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔(Stephen Suttmeier)汇编的1928年以来的数据，8月的到来也意味着股市将进入历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现标准普尔500指数在8月、9月和10月的平均回报率为0.03%，这是大盘股基准今年最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们构成了唯一平均亏损的三个月期间。</blockquote></p><p> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7月份标普500的平均回报率为1.58%，其中59.1%的时间为正，而9月份的平均回报率为负1.03%，只有不到一半的时间（即45%）出现在正栏中。</blockquote></p><p> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.</p><p><blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。根据道琼斯统计专家的数据，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，这是自2018年9月以来最长的连续上涨。在此期间，其累计预付款为18.34%。</blockquote></p><p> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”</p><p><blockquote>8月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为0.70%，58.1%的时间为积极结果，标志着从“夏季暴跌”到“秋季暴跌”的转变。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.</p><p><blockquote>Suttmeier发现，毫不奇怪，8月至10月期间的落后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据1992年以来的记录，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在4月至7月期间波动性相对较低后，在这几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.</p><p><blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性艰难时期，Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向据称被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以38美元的价格出售了5500万股股票。在这个过程中，它为所有参与IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一项要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期38美元至42美元范围的低端。尽管周五有所回升，但其价格在首日交易中下跌了8.4%。截至本周末，持有Robinhood IPO的买家数量下降了7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.</p><p><blockquote>卖出高价的人包括该公司的联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔·特涅夫(Vladimir Tenev)和首席创意官白菊·巴特(Baiju Bhatt)，他们在IPO中每人抛售了125万股。正如我杰出的前任艾伦·阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢观察的那样，卖出股票有很多好的理由，但期望它上涨并不是其中之一。考虑到富有的所有者有能力通过廉价借贷将其资产货币化，并且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未像现在这样真实。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，特涅夫和巴特仍然在罗宾汉拥有大量股份。正如我们的同事Avi Salzman报道的那样，按首次发行价计算，这些股票价值25亿美元，Tenev和Bhatt保留了投票权。如果股价达到300美元，或者接近众所周知的十倍，两人还可以获得Tenev价值高达67亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt价值40亿美元的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”</p><p><blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪至34,248美元，这是美国工人的平均年薪。正如喜剧演员雅科夫·斯米尔诺夫喜欢说的：“多好的国家啊！”</blockquote></p><p> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.</p><p><blockquote>这些工人的状况将成为定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote></p><p> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测约为90万人。杰富瑞(Jefferies)经济学家Aneta Markowska和Thomas Simons估计，增幅可能会突破期待已久的100万大关；他们预测有120万。</blockquote></p><p> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)</p><p><blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有重大争议的问题。（有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事。）</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177915656,"gmtCreate":1627175442575,"gmtModify":1633767511094,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177915656","repostId":"2153829859","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177912146,"gmtCreate":1627175389885,"gmtModify":1633767512378,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah","listText":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177912146","repostId":"2153989989","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174638495,"gmtCreate":1627094082717,"gmtModify":1633768033229,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174638495","repostId":"2153984791","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175380536,"gmtCreate":1627006997725,"gmtModify":1633768832914,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175380536","repostId":"2153658605","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1768,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172338135,"gmtCreate":1626934168527,"gmtModify":1633769582903,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah","listText":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172338135","repostId":"1119296199","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119296199","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626933778,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119296199?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 14:02","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Gold Trader’s Chat Bragged About ‘How Easy’ It Is to Manipulate Prices<blockquote>黄金交易员的聊天吹嘘操纵价格是“多么容易”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119296199","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Chat logs introduced as evidence by prosecutors at the Chicago spoofing trial of two ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Chat logs introduced as evidence by prosecutors at the Chicago spoofing trial of two former precious-metals traders for Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit shows one of them, Edward Bases, bragging about how easy it is to manipulate prices.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——在芝加哥对美国银行美林子公司两名前贵金属交易员的欺骗审判中，检察官提供的聊天记录作为证据显示，其中一人爱德华·贝斯吹嘘操纵价格是多么容易。</blockquote></p><p> On Jan. 28, 2009, when Bases was working at Deutsche Bank AG, he put out bids to buy 2,740 gold futures contracts valued around $244 million over the course of four-and-a-half minutes, according to Maria Garibotti, a vice president at Analysis Group who studied exchange and trading data for prosecutors. More than 98% were canceled without being filled, she said.</p><p><blockquote>据Maria Garibotti称，2009年1月28日，当Bases在德意志银行工作时，他在四分半钟内出价购买了2,740份黄金期货合约，价值约2.44亿美元。Analysis Group的副总裁为检察官研究交易所和交易数据。她说，超过98%的人在没有填补的情况下被取消。</blockquote></p><p> On the opposite side of the market, a fellow Deutsche Bank trader Bases coordinated with sold his 170 contracts worth $15,172,500 as the price rose, Garibotti told jurors on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>加里博蒂周三告诉陪审员，在市场的另一边，随着价格上涨，德意志银行交易员Bases的一位同事出售了价值15,172,500美元的170份合约。</blockquote></p><p> “that does show u how easy it is to manipulate it sometimes,” Bases wrote minutes after the trading in a chat message sent to the other Deutsche Bank trader, Cedric Chanu, according to Garibotti. Chanu and another Deutsche Bank Trader, James Vorley, were sentenced last month to a year in prison each for their convictions in 2020 on spoofing charges at a separate trial.</p><p><blockquote>加里博蒂表示，“这确实向你表明，有时操纵它是多么容易，”交易结束几分钟后，贝斯在发给另一位德意志银行交易员塞德里克·查努的聊天消息中写道。查努和另一位德意志银行交易员詹姆斯·沃利(James Vorley)上个月因2020年在另一次审判中因欺骗指控被定罪，分别被判处一年监禁。</blockquote></p><p> “I f..k the mkt around a lot,” Bases said in another message.</p><p><blockquote>“我..经常在市场上闲逛，”贝斯在另一条消息中说道。</blockquote></p><p> Bases and fellow Merrill Lynch trader John Pacilio face federal fraud charges for allegedly spoofing the futures market from 2008 to 2014.</p><p><blockquote>Bases和美林交易员John Pacilio因涉嫌在2008年至2014年期间欺骗期货市场而面临联邦欺诈指控。</blockquote></p><p> Another episode described by Garibotti involved trades by Bases and Pacilio on Aug. 9, 2010, when both were working at Merrill Lynch.</p><p><blockquote>加里博蒂描述的另一个事件涉及2010年8月9日Bases和Pacilio的交易，当时两人都在美林工作。</blockquote></p><p> That day, Bases placed an iceberg order to buy 10 contracts of platinum, with six being filled at placement, she said. Less than 10 seconds after Bases placed that buy order, Pacilio placed an order to sell 205 contracts for $15,856,750, which was almost 90% of what was visible on the exchange order book, Garibotti said. The price went down, and the rest of Bases’ order was filled, she said. Less than a second later, Pacilio’s sell order was canceled, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她说，当天，Bases下达了购买10份铂金合约的冰山订单，其中6份在配售时被履行。Garibotti表示，在Bases下达买入订单后不到10秒，Pacilio就下达了以15,856,750美元的价格出售205份合约的订单，这几乎是交易所订单簿上可见价格的90%。她说，价格下降了，其余的基地订单都被填满了。她说，不到一秒钟后，Pacilio的卖单就被取消了。</blockquote></p><p> Garibotti said employees at Analysis Group put in about 3,000 hours studying data in this case over the course of several years, billing the government $1.2 million for its work.</p><p><blockquote>Garibotti说，Analysis Group的员工在几年的时间里花了大约3000个小时研究此案的数据，向政府收取了120万美元的工作费用。</blockquote></p><p> The defense attorneys have not yet begun cross-examining Garibotti.</p><p><blockquote>辩护律师还没有开始盘问加里博蒂。</blockquote></p><p> In opening arguments Tuesday, Bases’ defense attorney told the jury that once her client understood spoofing was illegal, he stopped doing it, and that nearly all the conduct the government identified was before the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act, which specifically prohibited spoofing.</p><p><blockquote>在周二的开庭辩论中，基地的辩护律师告诉陪审团，一旦她的当事人明白欺骗是非法的，他就停止了这样做，而且政府发现的几乎所有行为都是在《多德弗兰克法案》颁布之前，该法案明确禁止欺骗。</blockquote></p><p> The case is U.S. v. Bases et al, 18-cr-00048, U.S. District Court, Northern District of Illinois (Chicago).</p><p><blockquote>该案是美国诉Bases等人案，18-cr-00048，美国伊利诺伊州北区地方法院（芝加哥）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold Trader’s Chat Bragged About ‘How Easy’ It Is to Manipulate Prices<blockquote>黄金交易员的聊天吹嘘操纵价格是“多么容易”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGold Trader’s Chat Bragged About ‘How Easy’ It Is to Manipulate Prices<blockquote>黄金交易员的聊天吹嘘操纵价格是“多么容易”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 14:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Chat logs introduced as evidence by prosecutors at the Chicago spoofing trial of two former precious-metals traders for Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit shows one of them, Edward Bases, bragging about how easy it is to manipulate prices.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——在芝加哥对美国银行美林子公司两名前贵金属交易员的欺骗审判中，检察官提供的聊天记录作为证据显示，其中一人爱德华·贝斯吹嘘操纵价格是多么容易。</blockquote></p><p> On Jan. 28, 2009, when Bases was working at Deutsche Bank AG, he put out bids to buy 2,740 gold futures contracts valued around $244 million over the course of four-and-a-half minutes, according to Maria Garibotti, a vice president at Analysis Group who studied exchange and trading data for prosecutors. More than 98% were canceled without being filled, she said.</p><p><blockquote>据Maria Garibotti称，2009年1月28日，当Bases在德意志银行工作时，他在四分半钟内出价购买了2,740份黄金期货合约，价值约2.44亿美元。Analysis Group的副总裁为检察官研究交易所和交易数据。她说，超过98%的人在没有填补的情况下被取消。</blockquote></p><p> On the opposite side of the market, a fellow Deutsche Bank trader Bases coordinated with sold his 170 contracts worth $15,172,500 as the price rose, Garibotti told jurors on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>加里博蒂周三告诉陪审员，在市场的另一边，随着价格上涨，德意志银行交易员Bases的一位同事出售了价值15,172,500美元的170份合约。</blockquote></p><p> “that does show u how easy it is to manipulate it sometimes,” Bases wrote minutes after the trading in a chat message sent to the other Deutsche Bank trader, Cedric Chanu, according to Garibotti. Chanu and another Deutsche Bank Trader, James Vorley, were sentenced last month to a year in prison each for their convictions in 2020 on spoofing charges at a separate trial.</p><p><blockquote>加里博蒂表示，“这确实向你表明，有时操纵它是多么容易，”交易结束几分钟后，贝斯在发给另一位德意志银行交易员塞德里克·查努的聊天消息中写道。查努和另一位德意志银行交易员詹姆斯·沃利(James Vorley)上个月因2020年在另一次审判中因欺骗指控被定罪，分别被判处一年监禁。</blockquote></p><p> “I f..k the mkt around a lot,” Bases said in another message.</p><p><blockquote>“我..经常在市场上闲逛，”贝斯在另一条消息中说道。</blockquote></p><p> Bases and fellow Merrill Lynch trader John Pacilio face federal fraud charges for allegedly spoofing the futures market from 2008 to 2014.</p><p><blockquote>Bases和美林交易员John Pacilio因涉嫌在2008年至2014年期间欺骗期货市场而面临联邦欺诈指控。</blockquote></p><p> Another episode described by Garibotti involved trades by Bases and Pacilio on Aug. 9, 2010, when both were working at Merrill Lynch.</p><p><blockquote>加里博蒂描述的另一个事件涉及2010年8月9日Bases和Pacilio的交易，当时两人都在美林工作。</blockquote></p><p> That day, Bases placed an iceberg order to buy 10 contracts of platinum, with six being filled at placement, she said. Less than 10 seconds after Bases placed that buy order, Pacilio placed an order to sell 205 contracts for $15,856,750, which was almost 90% of what was visible on the exchange order book, Garibotti said. The price went down, and the rest of Bases’ order was filled, she said. Less than a second later, Pacilio’s sell order was canceled, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她说，当天，Bases下达了购买10份铂金合约的冰山订单，其中6份在配售时被履行。Garibotti表示，在Bases下达买入订单后不到10秒，Pacilio就下达了以15,856,750美元的价格出售205份合约的订单，这几乎是交易所订单簿上可见价格的90%。她说，价格下降了，其余的基地订单都被填满了。她说，不到一秒钟后，Pacilio的卖单就被取消了。</blockquote></p><p> Garibotti said employees at Analysis Group put in about 3,000 hours studying data in this case over the course of several years, billing the government $1.2 million for its work.</p><p><blockquote>Garibotti说，Analysis Group的员工在几年的时间里花了大约3000个小时研究此案的数据，向政府收取了120万美元的工作费用。</blockquote></p><p> The defense attorneys have not yet begun cross-examining Garibotti.</p><p><blockquote>辩护律师还没有开始盘问加里博蒂。</blockquote></p><p> In opening arguments Tuesday, Bases’ defense attorney told the jury that once her client understood spoofing was illegal, he stopped doing it, and that nearly all the conduct the government identified was before the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act, which specifically prohibited spoofing.</p><p><blockquote>在周二的开庭辩论中，基地的辩护律师告诉陪审团，一旦她的当事人明白欺骗是非法的，他就停止了这样做，而且政府发现的几乎所有行为都是在《多德弗兰克法案》颁布之前，该法案明确禁止欺骗。</blockquote></p><p> The case is U.S. v. Bases et al, 18-cr-00048, U.S. District Court, Northern District of Illinois (Chicago).</p><p><blockquote>该案是美国诉Bases等人案，18-cr-00048，美国伊利诺伊州北区地方法院（芝加哥）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-trader-chat-bragged-easy-001619023.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-trader-chat-bragged-easy-001619023.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119296199","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Chat logs introduced as evidence by prosecutors at the Chicago spoofing trial of two former precious-metals traders for Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit shows one of them, Edward Bases, bragging about how easy it is to manipulate prices.\nOn Jan. 28, 2009, when Bases was working at Deutsche Bank AG, he put out bids to buy 2,740 gold futures contracts valued around $244 million over the course of four-and-a-half minutes, according to Maria Garibotti, a vice president at Analysis Group who studied exchange and trading data for prosecutors. More than 98% were canceled without being filled, she said.\nOn the opposite side of the market, a fellow Deutsche Bank trader Bases coordinated with sold his 170 contracts worth $15,172,500 as the price rose, Garibotti told jurors on Wednesday.\n“that does show u how easy it is to manipulate it sometimes,” Bases wrote minutes after the trading in a chat message sent to the other Deutsche Bank trader, Cedric Chanu, according to Garibotti. Chanu and another Deutsche Bank Trader, James Vorley, were sentenced last month to a year in prison each for their convictions in 2020 on spoofing charges at a separate trial.\n“I f..k the mkt around a lot,” Bases said in another message.\nBases and fellow Merrill Lynch trader John Pacilio face federal fraud charges for allegedly spoofing the futures market from 2008 to 2014.\nAnother episode described by Garibotti involved trades by Bases and Pacilio on Aug. 9, 2010, when both were working at Merrill Lynch.\nThat day, Bases placed an iceberg order to buy 10 contracts of platinum, with six being filled at placement, she said. Less than 10 seconds after Bases placed that buy order, Pacilio placed an order to sell 205 contracts for $15,856,750, which was almost 90% of what was visible on the exchange order book, Garibotti said. The price went down, and the rest of Bases’ order was filled, she said. Less than a second later, Pacilio’s sell order was canceled, she said.\nGaribotti said employees at Analysis Group put in about 3,000 hours studying data in this case over the course of several years, billing the government $1.2 million for its work.\nThe defense attorneys have not yet begun cross-examining Garibotti.\nIn opening arguments Tuesday, Bases’ defense attorney told the jury that once her client understood spoofing was illegal, he stopped doing it, and that nearly all the conduct the government identified was before the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act, which specifically prohibited spoofing.\nThe case is U.S. v. Bases et al, 18-cr-00048, U.S. District Court, Northern District of Illinois (Chicago).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172338953,"gmtCreate":1626934149472,"gmtModify":1633769583025,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wah","listText":"Wah","text":"Wah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172338953","repostId":"2153477496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176783107,"gmtCreate":1626916044009,"gmtModify":1633769793994,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176783107","repostId":"1182390348","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182390348","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626915354,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182390348?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 08:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Minerd Says U.S. Stocks Could Plunge 15% in ‘Very Rough’ Autumn<blockquote>Minerd表示美国股市可能在“非常艰难”的秋季暴跌15%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182390348","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks could tumble 15% or more by the end of October in a challenging period fo","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks could tumble 15% or more by the end of October in a challenging period for markets, said Scott Minerd, chairman and chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——古根海姆投资公司董事长兼首席投资官斯科特·米纳德表示，在市场充满挑战的时期，美国股市到10月底可能会暴跌15%或更多。</blockquote></p><p> “September and October are likely to be very rough this year” for stocks, Minerd said in a Bloomberg Television interview Wednesday. “Maybe a pullback of 15% or slightly more. But once the Dodgers are at the opening game of the World Series, I think you’ll be able to buy.”</p><p><blockquote>米纳德周三在接受彭博电视采访时表示，“今年9月和10月对股市来说可能会非常艰难”。“也许回调15%或略多。但一旦道奇队进入世界职业棒球大赛的首场比赛，我想你就可以买入了。”</blockquote></p><p> A faster-than-expected tapering of asset purchases from the Federal Reserve and the increasing spread of the delta variant are both major risk factors for stocks, Minerd said.</p><p><blockquote>Minerd表示，美联储缩减资产购买的速度快于预期，以及德尔塔变异毒株利差的扩大，都是股市的主要风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Minerd also expects cryptocurrencies to remain challenged in the coming months. He sees Bitcoin falling further to “something in the neighborhood of $15,000, and said “a lot of this stuff is just junk.”</p><p><blockquote>Minerd还预计，加密货币在未来几个月仍将面临挑战。他看到比特币进一步跌至“15,000美元左右”，并表示“很多这种东西都是垃圾”。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin traded around $31,700 Wednesday, near the lower end of its range over the past two months and down about 50% from the April peak.</p><p><blockquote>比特币周三交易价格约为31,700美元，接近过去两个月区间的下限，较4月份峰值下跌约50%。</blockquote></p><p> “I think there’s still more air to come out,” Minerd said. “The standard bear market for Bitcoin has been an 80% retracement and given all the uncertainty and the new competition from new coins, I think there’s more downside to go.”</p><p><blockquote>“我认为还有更多空气出来，”米纳德说。“比特币的标准熊市是80%的回撤，考虑到所有的不确定性和来自新硬币的新竞争，我认为还有更多下行空间。”</blockquote></p><p> “When do you buy it? I don’t think anytime soon,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“你什么时候买？我认为不会很快，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Minerd said Bitcoin’s under-performance of late is a bad sign for risk assets and could be the “canary in the coal mine that’s telling us we have more problems ahead for risk assets, and in particular stocks.”</p><p><blockquote>米纳德表示，比特币最近的表现不佳对风险资产来说是一个坏兆头，可能是“煤矿里的金丝雀，告诉我们风险资产，尤其是股票，未来还会出现更多问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Long term, Minerd sees Ethereum as a “more viable” cryptocurrency than Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，Minerd认为以太币是一种比比特币“更可行”的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> Better Credit Opportunities Ahead</p><p><blockquote>未来更好的信贷机会</blockquote></p><p> In credit, Minerd said lower-rated high-yield bonds are extremely expensive on a historical basis. For now, he prefers the top tier of junk bonds, and expects better opportunities to buy junk credit in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>在信贷方面，米纳德表示，从历史上看，评级较低的高收益债券极其昂贵。目前，他更喜欢顶级垃圾债券，并预计未来几个月将有更好的机会购买垃圾信贷。</blockquote></p><p> “We are coming into a seasonally difficult time for risk assets, and there might be a better entry point if you want to get involved in high yield credit than where we are today,” Minerd said.</p><p><blockquote>米纳德表示：“对于风险资产来说，我们正进入一个季节性困难时期，如果你想涉足高收益信贷，可能有一个比我们今天更好的切入点。”</blockquote></p><p> Treasury yields could fall as much as 60 basis points from here if markets enter a risk-off cycle, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，如果市场进入避险周期，美国国债收益率可能会从现在下跌多达60个基点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minerd Says U.S. Stocks Could Plunge 15% in ‘Very Rough’ Autumn<blockquote>Minerd表示美国股市可能在“非常艰难”的秋季暴跌15%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinerd Says U.S. Stocks Could Plunge 15% in ‘Very Rough’ Autumn<blockquote>Minerd表示美国股市可能在“非常艰难”的秋季暴跌15%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 08:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks could tumble 15% or more by the end of October in a challenging period for markets, said Scott Minerd, chairman and chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——古根海姆投资公司董事长兼首席投资官斯科特·米纳德表示，在市场充满挑战的时期，美国股市到10月底可能会暴跌15%或更多。</blockquote></p><p> “September and October are likely to be very rough this year” for stocks, Minerd said in a Bloomberg Television interview Wednesday. “Maybe a pullback of 15% or slightly more. But once the Dodgers are at the opening game of the World Series, I think you’ll be able to buy.”</p><p><blockquote>米纳德周三在接受彭博电视采访时表示，“今年9月和10月对股市来说可能会非常艰难”。“也许回调15%或略多。但一旦道奇队进入世界职业棒球大赛的首场比赛，我想你就可以买入了。”</blockquote></p><p> A faster-than-expected tapering of asset purchases from the Federal Reserve and the increasing spread of the delta variant are both major risk factors for stocks, Minerd said.</p><p><blockquote>Minerd表示，美联储缩减资产购买的速度快于预期，以及德尔塔变异毒株利差的扩大，都是股市的主要风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Minerd also expects cryptocurrencies to remain challenged in the coming months. He sees Bitcoin falling further to “something in the neighborhood of $15,000, and said “a lot of this stuff is just junk.”</p><p><blockquote>Minerd还预计，加密货币在未来几个月仍将面临挑战。他看到比特币进一步跌至“15,000美元左右”，并表示“很多这种东西都是垃圾”。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin traded around $31,700 Wednesday, near the lower end of its range over the past two months and down about 50% from the April peak.</p><p><blockquote>比特币周三交易价格约为31,700美元，接近过去两个月区间的下限，较4月份峰值下跌约50%。</blockquote></p><p> “I think there’s still more air to come out,” Minerd said. “The standard bear market for Bitcoin has been an 80% retracement and given all the uncertainty and the new competition from new coins, I think there’s more downside to go.”</p><p><blockquote>“我认为还有更多空气出来，”米纳德说。“比特币的标准熊市是80%的回撤，考虑到所有的不确定性和来自新硬币的新竞争，我认为还有更多下行空间。”</blockquote></p><p> “When do you buy it? I don’t think anytime soon,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“你什么时候买？我认为不会很快，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Minerd said Bitcoin’s under-performance of late is a bad sign for risk assets and could be the “canary in the coal mine that’s telling us we have more problems ahead for risk assets, and in particular stocks.”</p><p><blockquote>米纳德表示，比特币最近的表现不佳对风险资产来说是一个坏兆头，可能是“煤矿里的金丝雀，告诉我们风险资产，尤其是股票，未来还会出现更多问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Long term, Minerd sees Ethereum as a “more viable” cryptocurrency than Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，Minerd认为以太币是一种比比特币“更可行”的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> Better Credit Opportunities Ahead</p><p><blockquote>未来更好的信贷机会</blockquote></p><p> In credit, Minerd said lower-rated high-yield bonds are extremely expensive on a historical basis. For now, he prefers the top tier of junk bonds, and expects better opportunities to buy junk credit in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>在信贷方面，米纳德表示，从历史上看，评级较低的高收益债券极其昂贵。目前，他更喜欢顶级垃圾债券，并预计未来几个月将有更好的机会购买垃圾信贷。</blockquote></p><p> “We are coming into a seasonally difficult time for risk assets, and there might be a better entry point if you want to get involved in high yield credit than where we are today,” Minerd said.</p><p><blockquote>米纳德表示：“对于风险资产来说，我们正进入一个季节性困难时期，如果你想涉足高收益信贷，可能有一个比我们今天更好的切入点。”</blockquote></p><p> Treasury yields could fall as much as 60 basis points from here if markets enter a risk-off cycle, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，如果市场进入避险周期，美国国债收益率可能会从现在下跌多达60个基点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/minerd-says-u-stocks-could-213554381.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/minerd-says-u-stocks-could-213554381.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182390348","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks could tumble 15% or more by the end of October in a challenging period for markets, said Scott Minerd, chairman and chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments.\n“September and October are likely to be very rough this year” for stocks, Minerd said in a Bloomberg Television interview Wednesday. “Maybe a pullback of 15% or slightly more. But once the Dodgers are at the opening game of the World Series, I think you’ll be able to buy.”\nA faster-than-expected tapering of asset purchases from the Federal Reserve and the increasing spread of the delta variant are both major risk factors for stocks, Minerd said.\nMinerd also expects cryptocurrencies to remain challenged in the coming months. He sees Bitcoin falling further to “something in the neighborhood of $15,000, and said “a lot of this stuff is just junk.”\nBitcoin traded around $31,700 Wednesday, near the lower end of its range over the past two months and down about 50% from the April peak.\n“I think there’s still more air to come out,” Minerd said. “The standard bear market for Bitcoin has been an 80% retracement and given all the uncertainty and the new competition from new coins, I think there’s more downside to go.”\n“When do you buy it? I don’t think anytime soon,” he added.\nMinerd said Bitcoin’s under-performance of late is a bad sign for risk assets and could be the “canary in the coal mine that’s telling us we have more problems ahead for risk assets, and in particular stocks.”\nLong term, Minerd sees Ethereum as a “more viable” cryptocurrency than Bitcoin.\nBetter Credit Opportunities Ahead\nIn credit, Minerd said lower-rated high-yield bonds are extremely expensive on a historical basis. For now, he prefers the top tier of junk bonds, and expects better opportunities to buy junk credit in the coming months.\n“We are coming into a seasonally difficult time for risk assets, and there might be a better entry point if you want to get involved in high yield credit than where we are today,” Minerd said.\nTreasury yields could fall as much as 60 basis points from here if markets enter a risk-off cycle, he added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176789929,"gmtCreate":1626915995961,"gmtModify":1633769794993,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176789929","repostId":"2153477496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173711604,"gmtCreate":1626686239708,"gmtModify":1633924941495,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173711604","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173711032,"gmtCreate":1626686176526,"gmtModify":1633924941735,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173711032","repostId":"1111084715","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173713513,"gmtCreate":1626686146832,"gmtModify":1633924941957,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173713513","repostId":"1111084715","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":173711032,"gmtCreate":1626686176526,"gmtModify":1633924941735,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173711032","repostId":"1111084715","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176789929,"gmtCreate":1626915995961,"gmtModify":1633769794993,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176789929","repostId":"2153477496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1946,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173713513,"gmtCreate":1626686146832,"gmtModify":1633924941957,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173713513","repostId":"1111084715","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":399,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176783107,"gmtCreate":1626916044009,"gmtModify":1633769793994,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176783107","repostId":"1182390348","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182390348","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626915354,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182390348?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 08:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Minerd Says U.S. Stocks Could Plunge 15% in ‘Very Rough’ Autumn<blockquote>Minerd表示美国股市可能在“非常艰难”的秋季暴跌15%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182390348","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks could tumble 15% or more by the end of October in a challenging period fo","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks could tumble 15% or more by the end of October in a challenging period for markets, said Scott Minerd, chairman and chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——古根海姆投资公司董事长兼首席投资官斯科特·米纳德表示，在市场充满挑战的时期，美国股市到10月底可能会暴跌15%或更多。</blockquote></p><p> “September and October are likely to be very rough this year” for stocks, Minerd said in a Bloomberg Television interview Wednesday. “Maybe a pullback of 15% or slightly more. But once the Dodgers are at the opening game of the World Series, I think you’ll be able to buy.”</p><p><blockquote>米纳德周三在接受彭博电视采访时表示，“今年9月和10月对股市来说可能会非常艰难”。“也许回调15%或略多。但一旦道奇队进入世界职业棒球大赛的首场比赛，我想你就可以买入了。”</blockquote></p><p> A faster-than-expected tapering of asset purchases from the Federal Reserve and the increasing spread of the delta variant are both major risk factors for stocks, Minerd said.</p><p><blockquote>Minerd表示，美联储缩减资产购买的速度快于预期，以及德尔塔变异毒株利差的扩大，都是股市的主要风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Minerd also expects cryptocurrencies to remain challenged in the coming months. He sees Bitcoin falling further to “something in the neighborhood of $15,000, and said “a lot of this stuff is just junk.”</p><p><blockquote>Minerd还预计，加密货币在未来几个月仍将面临挑战。他看到比特币进一步跌至“15,000美元左右”，并表示“很多这种东西都是垃圾”。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin traded around $31,700 Wednesday, near the lower end of its range over the past two months and down about 50% from the April peak.</p><p><blockquote>比特币周三交易价格约为31,700美元，接近过去两个月区间的下限，较4月份峰值下跌约50%。</blockquote></p><p> “I think there’s still more air to come out,” Minerd said. “The standard bear market for Bitcoin has been an 80% retracement and given all the uncertainty and the new competition from new coins, I think there’s more downside to go.”</p><p><blockquote>“我认为还有更多空气出来，”米纳德说。“比特币的标准熊市是80%的回撤，考虑到所有的不确定性和来自新硬币的新竞争，我认为还有更多下行空间。”</blockquote></p><p> “When do you buy it? I don’t think anytime soon,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“你什么时候买？我认为不会很快，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Minerd said Bitcoin’s under-performance of late is a bad sign for risk assets and could be the “canary in the coal mine that’s telling us we have more problems ahead for risk assets, and in particular stocks.”</p><p><blockquote>米纳德表示，比特币最近的表现不佳对风险资产来说是一个坏兆头，可能是“煤矿里的金丝雀，告诉我们风险资产，尤其是股票，未来还会出现更多问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Long term, Minerd sees Ethereum as a “more viable” cryptocurrency than Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，Minerd认为以太币是一种比比特币“更可行”的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> Better Credit Opportunities Ahead</p><p><blockquote>未来更好的信贷机会</blockquote></p><p> In credit, Minerd said lower-rated high-yield bonds are extremely expensive on a historical basis. For now, he prefers the top tier of junk bonds, and expects better opportunities to buy junk credit in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>在信贷方面，米纳德表示，从历史上看，评级较低的高收益债券极其昂贵。目前，他更喜欢顶级垃圾债券，并预计未来几个月将有更好的机会购买垃圾信贷。</blockquote></p><p> “We are coming into a seasonally difficult time for risk assets, and there might be a better entry point if you want to get involved in high yield credit than where we are today,” Minerd said.</p><p><blockquote>米纳德表示：“对于风险资产来说，我们正进入一个季节性困难时期，如果你想涉足高收益信贷，可能有一个比我们今天更好的切入点。”</blockquote></p><p> Treasury yields could fall as much as 60 basis points from here if markets enter a risk-off cycle, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，如果市场进入避险周期，美国国债收益率可能会从现在下跌多达60个基点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Minerd Says U.S. Stocks Could Plunge 15% in ‘Very Rough’ Autumn<blockquote>Minerd表示美国股市可能在“非常艰难”的秋季暴跌15%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMinerd Says U.S. Stocks Could Plunge 15% in ‘Very Rough’ Autumn<blockquote>Minerd表示美国股市可能在“非常艰难”的秋季暴跌15%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 08:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks could tumble 15% or more by the end of October in a challenging period for markets, said Scott Minerd, chairman and chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——古根海姆投资公司董事长兼首席投资官斯科特·米纳德表示，在市场充满挑战的时期，美国股市到10月底可能会暴跌15%或更多。</blockquote></p><p> “September and October are likely to be very rough this year” for stocks, Minerd said in a Bloomberg Television interview Wednesday. “Maybe a pullback of 15% or slightly more. But once the Dodgers are at the opening game of the World Series, I think you’ll be able to buy.”</p><p><blockquote>米纳德周三在接受彭博电视采访时表示，“今年9月和10月对股市来说可能会非常艰难”。“也许回调15%或略多。但一旦道奇队进入世界职业棒球大赛的首场比赛，我想你就可以买入了。”</blockquote></p><p> A faster-than-expected tapering of asset purchases from the Federal Reserve and the increasing spread of the delta variant are both major risk factors for stocks, Minerd said.</p><p><blockquote>Minerd表示，美联储缩减资产购买的速度快于预期，以及德尔塔变异毒株利差的扩大，都是股市的主要风险因素。</blockquote></p><p> Minerd also expects cryptocurrencies to remain challenged in the coming months. He sees Bitcoin falling further to “something in the neighborhood of $15,000, and said “a lot of this stuff is just junk.”</p><p><blockquote>Minerd还预计，加密货币在未来几个月仍将面临挑战。他看到比特币进一步跌至“15,000美元左右”，并表示“很多这种东西都是垃圾”。</blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin traded around $31,700 Wednesday, near the lower end of its range over the past two months and down about 50% from the April peak.</p><p><blockquote>比特币周三交易价格约为31,700美元，接近过去两个月区间的下限，较4月份峰值下跌约50%。</blockquote></p><p> “I think there’s still more air to come out,” Minerd said. “The standard bear market for Bitcoin has been an 80% retracement and given all the uncertainty and the new competition from new coins, I think there’s more downside to go.”</p><p><blockquote>“我认为还有更多空气出来，”米纳德说。“比特币的标准熊市是80%的回撤，考虑到所有的不确定性和来自新硬币的新竞争，我认为还有更多下行空间。”</blockquote></p><p> “When do you buy it? I don’t think anytime soon,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“你什么时候买？我认为不会很快，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p> Minerd said Bitcoin’s under-performance of late is a bad sign for risk assets and could be the “canary in the coal mine that’s telling us we have more problems ahead for risk assets, and in particular stocks.”</p><p><blockquote>米纳德表示，比特币最近的表现不佳对风险资产来说是一个坏兆头，可能是“煤矿里的金丝雀，告诉我们风险资产，尤其是股票，未来还会出现更多问题。”</blockquote></p><p> Long term, Minerd sees Ethereum as a “more viable” cryptocurrency than Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>从长远来看，Minerd认为以太币是一种比比特币“更可行”的加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> Better Credit Opportunities Ahead</p><p><blockquote>未来更好的信贷机会</blockquote></p><p> In credit, Minerd said lower-rated high-yield bonds are extremely expensive on a historical basis. For now, he prefers the top tier of junk bonds, and expects better opportunities to buy junk credit in the coming months.</p><p><blockquote>在信贷方面，米纳德表示，从历史上看，评级较低的高收益债券极其昂贵。目前，他更喜欢顶级垃圾债券，并预计未来几个月将有更好的机会购买垃圾信贷。</blockquote></p><p> “We are coming into a seasonally difficult time for risk assets, and there might be a better entry point if you want to get involved in high yield credit than where we are today,” Minerd said.</p><p><blockquote>米纳德表示：“对于风险资产来说，我们正进入一个季节性困难时期，如果你想涉足高收益信贷，可能有一个比我们今天更好的切入点。”</blockquote></p><p> Treasury yields could fall as much as 60 basis points from here if markets enter a risk-off cycle, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，如果市场进入避险周期，美国国债收益率可能会从现在下跌多达60个基点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/minerd-says-u-stocks-could-213554381.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/minerd-says-u-stocks-could-213554381.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182390348","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks could tumble 15% or more by the end of October in a challenging period for markets, said Scott Minerd, chairman and chief investment officer of Guggenheim Investments.\n“September and October are likely to be very rough this year” for stocks, Minerd said in a Bloomberg Television interview Wednesday. “Maybe a pullback of 15% or slightly more. But once the Dodgers are at the opening game of the World Series, I think you’ll be able to buy.”\nA faster-than-expected tapering of asset purchases from the Federal Reserve and the increasing spread of the delta variant are both major risk factors for stocks, Minerd said.\nMinerd also expects cryptocurrencies to remain challenged in the coming months. He sees Bitcoin falling further to “something in the neighborhood of $15,000, and said “a lot of this stuff is just junk.”\nBitcoin traded around $31,700 Wednesday, near the lower end of its range over the past two months and down about 50% from the April peak.\n“I think there’s still more air to come out,” Minerd said. “The standard bear market for Bitcoin has been an 80% retracement and given all the uncertainty and the new competition from new coins, I think there’s more downside to go.”\n“When do you buy it? I don’t think anytime soon,” he added.\nMinerd said Bitcoin’s under-performance of late is a bad sign for risk assets and could be the “canary in the coal mine that’s telling us we have more problems ahead for risk assets, and in particular stocks.”\nLong term, Minerd sees Ethereum as a “more viable” cryptocurrency than Bitcoin.\nBetter Credit Opportunities Ahead\nIn credit, Minerd said lower-rated high-yield bonds are extremely expensive on a historical basis. For now, he prefers the top tier of junk bonds, and expects better opportunities to buy junk credit in the coming months.\n“We are coming into a seasonally difficult time for risk assets, and there might be a better entry point if you want to get involved in high yield credit than where we are today,” Minerd said.\nTreasury yields could fall as much as 60 basis points from here if markets enter a risk-off cycle, he added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172338135,"gmtCreate":1626934168527,"gmtModify":1633769582903,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah","listText":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172338135","repostId":"1119296199","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119296199","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626933778,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119296199?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-22 14:02","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Gold Trader’s Chat Bragged About ‘How Easy’ It Is to Manipulate Prices<blockquote>黄金交易员的聊天吹嘘操纵价格是“多么容易”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119296199","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Chat logs introduced as evidence by prosecutors at the Chicago spoofing trial of two ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Chat logs introduced as evidence by prosecutors at the Chicago spoofing trial of two former precious-metals traders for Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit shows one of them, Edward Bases, bragging about how easy it is to manipulate prices.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——在芝加哥对美国银行美林子公司两名前贵金属交易员的欺骗审判中，检察官提供的聊天记录作为证据显示，其中一人爱德华·贝斯吹嘘操纵价格是多么容易。</blockquote></p><p> On Jan. 28, 2009, when Bases was working at Deutsche Bank AG, he put out bids to buy 2,740 gold futures contracts valued around $244 million over the course of four-and-a-half minutes, according to Maria Garibotti, a vice president at Analysis Group who studied exchange and trading data for prosecutors. More than 98% were canceled without being filled, she said.</p><p><blockquote>据Maria Garibotti称，2009年1月28日，当Bases在德意志银行工作时，他在四分半钟内出价购买了2,740份黄金期货合约，价值约2.44亿美元。Analysis Group的副总裁为检察官研究交易所和交易数据。她说，超过98%的人在没有填补的情况下被取消。</blockquote></p><p> On the opposite side of the market, a fellow Deutsche Bank trader Bases coordinated with sold his 170 contracts worth $15,172,500 as the price rose, Garibotti told jurors on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>加里博蒂周三告诉陪审员，在市场的另一边，随着价格上涨，德意志银行交易员Bases的一位同事出售了价值15,172,500美元的170份合约。</blockquote></p><p> “that does show u how easy it is to manipulate it sometimes,” Bases wrote minutes after the trading in a chat message sent to the other Deutsche Bank trader, Cedric Chanu, according to Garibotti. Chanu and another Deutsche Bank Trader, James Vorley, were sentenced last month to a year in prison each for their convictions in 2020 on spoofing charges at a separate trial.</p><p><blockquote>加里博蒂表示，“这确实向你表明，有时操纵它是多么容易，”交易结束几分钟后，贝斯在发给另一位德意志银行交易员塞德里克·查努的聊天消息中写道。查努和另一位德意志银行交易员詹姆斯·沃利(James Vorley)上个月因2020年在另一次审判中因欺骗指控被定罪，分别被判处一年监禁。</blockquote></p><p> “I f..k the mkt around a lot,” Bases said in another message.</p><p><blockquote>“我..经常在市场上闲逛，”贝斯在另一条消息中说道。</blockquote></p><p> Bases and fellow Merrill Lynch trader John Pacilio face federal fraud charges for allegedly spoofing the futures market from 2008 to 2014.</p><p><blockquote>Bases和美林交易员John Pacilio因涉嫌在2008年至2014年期间欺骗期货市场而面临联邦欺诈指控。</blockquote></p><p> Another episode described by Garibotti involved trades by Bases and Pacilio on Aug. 9, 2010, when both were working at Merrill Lynch.</p><p><blockquote>加里博蒂描述的另一个事件涉及2010年8月9日Bases和Pacilio的交易，当时两人都在美林工作。</blockquote></p><p> That day, Bases placed an iceberg order to buy 10 contracts of platinum, with six being filled at placement, she said. Less than 10 seconds after Bases placed that buy order, Pacilio placed an order to sell 205 contracts for $15,856,750, which was almost 90% of what was visible on the exchange order book, Garibotti said. The price went down, and the rest of Bases’ order was filled, she said. Less than a second later, Pacilio’s sell order was canceled, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她说，当天，Bases下达了购买10份铂金合约的冰山订单，其中6份在配售时被履行。Garibotti表示，在Bases下达买入订单后不到10秒，Pacilio就下达了以15,856,750美元的价格出售205份合约的订单，这几乎是交易所订单簿上可见价格的90%。她说，价格下降了，其余的基地订单都被填满了。她说，不到一秒钟后，Pacilio的卖单就被取消了。</blockquote></p><p> Garibotti said employees at Analysis Group put in about 3,000 hours studying data in this case over the course of several years, billing the government $1.2 million for its work.</p><p><blockquote>Garibotti说，Analysis Group的员工在几年的时间里花了大约3000个小时研究此案的数据，向政府收取了120万美元的工作费用。</blockquote></p><p> The defense attorneys have not yet begun cross-examining Garibotti.</p><p><blockquote>辩护律师还没有开始盘问加里博蒂。</blockquote></p><p> In opening arguments Tuesday, Bases’ defense attorney told the jury that once her client understood spoofing was illegal, he stopped doing it, and that nearly all the conduct the government identified was before the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act, which specifically prohibited spoofing.</p><p><blockquote>在周二的开庭辩论中，基地的辩护律师告诉陪审团，一旦她的当事人明白欺骗是非法的，他就停止了这样做，而且政府发现的几乎所有行为都是在《多德弗兰克法案》颁布之前，该法案明确禁止欺骗。</blockquote></p><p> The case is U.S. v. Bases et al, 18-cr-00048, U.S. District Court, Northern District of Illinois (Chicago).</p><p><blockquote>该案是美国诉Bases等人案，18-cr-00048，美国伊利诺伊州北区地方法院（芝加哥）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Gold Trader’s Chat Bragged About ‘How Easy’ It Is to Manipulate Prices<blockquote>黄金交易员的聊天吹嘘操纵价格是“多么容易”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGold Trader’s Chat Bragged About ‘How Easy’ It Is to Manipulate Prices<blockquote>黄金交易员的聊天吹嘘操纵价格是“多么容易”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-22 14:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Chat logs introduced as evidence by prosecutors at the Chicago spoofing trial of two former precious-metals traders for Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit shows one of them, Edward Bases, bragging about how easy it is to manipulate prices.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——在芝加哥对美国银行美林子公司两名前贵金属交易员的欺骗审判中，检察官提供的聊天记录作为证据显示，其中一人爱德华·贝斯吹嘘操纵价格是多么容易。</blockquote></p><p> On Jan. 28, 2009, when Bases was working at Deutsche Bank AG, he put out bids to buy 2,740 gold futures contracts valued around $244 million over the course of four-and-a-half minutes, according to Maria Garibotti, a vice president at Analysis Group who studied exchange and trading data for prosecutors. More than 98% were canceled without being filled, she said.</p><p><blockquote>据Maria Garibotti称，2009年1月28日，当Bases在德意志银行工作时，他在四分半钟内出价购买了2,740份黄金期货合约，价值约2.44亿美元。Analysis Group的副总裁为检察官研究交易所和交易数据。她说，超过98%的人在没有填补的情况下被取消。</blockquote></p><p> On the opposite side of the market, a fellow Deutsche Bank trader Bases coordinated with sold his 170 contracts worth $15,172,500 as the price rose, Garibotti told jurors on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>加里博蒂周三告诉陪审员，在市场的另一边，随着价格上涨，德意志银行交易员Bases的一位同事出售了价值15,172,500美元的170份合约。</blockquote></p><p> “that does show u how easy it is to manipulate it sometimes,” Bases wrote minutes after the trading in a chat message sent to the other Deutsche Bank trader, Cedric Chanu, according to Garibotti. Chanu and another Deutsche Bank Trader, James Vorley, were sentenced last month to a year in prison each for their convictions in 2020 on spoofing charges at a separate trial.</p><p><blockquote>加里博蒂表示，“这确实向你表明，有时操纵它是多么容易，”交易结束几分钟后，贝斯在发给另一位德意志银行交易员塞德里克·查努的聊天消息中写道。查努和另一位德意志银行交易员詹姆斯·沃利(James Vorley)上个月因2020年在另一次审判中因欺骗指控被定罪，分别被判处一年监禁。</blockquote></p><p> “I f..k the mkt around a lot,” Bases said in another message.</p><p><blockquote>“我..经常在市场上闲逛，”贝斯在另一条消息中说道。</blockquote></p><p> Bases and fellow Merrill Lynch trader John Pacilio face federal fraud charges for allegedly spoofing the futures market from 2008 to 2014.</p><p><blockquote>Bases和美林交易员John Pacilio因涉嫌在2008年至2014年期间欺骗期货市场而面临联邦欺诈指控。</blockquote></p><p> Another episode described by Garibotti involved trades by Bases and Pacilio on Aug. 9, 2010, when both were working at Merrill Lynch.</p><p><blockquote>加里博蒂描述的另一个事件涉及2010年8月9日Bases和Pacilio的交易，当时两人都在美林工作。</blockquote></p><p> That day, Bases placed an iceberg order to buy 10 contracts of platinum, with six being filled at placement, she said. Less than 10 seconds after Bases placed that buy order, Pacilio placed an order to sell 205 contracts for $15,856,750, which was almost 90% of what was visible on the exchange order book, Garibotti said. The price went down, and the rest of Bases’ order was filled, she said. Less than a second later, Pacilio’s sell order was canceled, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她说，当天，Bases下达了购买10份铂金合约的冰山订单，其中6份在配售时被履行。Garibotti表示，在Bases下达买入订单后不到10秒，Pacilio就下达了以15,856,750美元的价格出售205份合约的订单，这几乎是交易所订单簿上可见价格的90%。她说，价格下降了，其余的基地订单都被填满了。她说，不到一秒钟后，Pacilio的卖单就被取消了。</blockquote></p><p> Garibotti said employees at Analysis Group put in about 3,000 hours studying data in this case over the course of several years, billing the government $1.2 million for its work.</p><p><blockquote>Garibotti说，Analysis Group的员工在几年的时间里花了大约3000个小时研究此案的数据，向政府收取了120万美元的工作费用。</blockquote></p><p> The defense attorneys have not yet begun cross-examining Garibotti.</p><p><blockquote>辩护律师还没有开始盘问加里博蒂。</blockquote></p><p> In opening arguments Tuesday, Bases’ defense attorney told the jury that once her client understood spoofing was illegal, he stopped doing it, and that nearly all the conduct the government identified was before the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act, which specifically prohibited spoofing.</p><p><blockquote>在周二的开庭辩论中，基地的辩护律师告诉陪审团，一旦她的当事人明白欺骗是非法的，他就停止了这样做，而且政府发现的几乎所有行为都是在《多德弗兰克法案》颁布之前，该法案明确禁止欺骗。</blockquote></p><p> The case is U.S. v. Bases et al, 18-cr-00048, U.S. District Court, Northern District of Illinois (Chicago).</p><p><blockquote>该案是美国诉Bases等人案，18-cr-00048，美国伊利诺伊州北区地方法院（芝加哥）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-trader-chat-bragged-easy-001619023.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-trader-chat-bragged-easy-001619023.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119296199","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Chat logs introduced as evidence by prosecutors at the Chicago spoofing trial of two former precious-metals traders for Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit shows one of them, Edward Bases, bragging about how easy it is to manipulate prices.\nOn Jan. 28, 2009, when Bases was working at Deutsche Bank AG, he put out bids to buy 2,740 gold futures contracts valued around $244 million over the course of four-and-a-half minutes, according to Maria Garibotti, a vice president at Analysis Group who studied exchange and trading data for prosecutors. More than 98% were canceled without being filled, she said.\nOn the opposite side of the market, a fellow Deutsche Bank trader Bases coordinated with sold his 170 contracts worth $15,172,500 as the price rose, Garibotti told jurors on Wednesday.\n“that does show u how easy it is to manipulate it sometimes,” Bases wrote minutes after the trading in a chat message sent to the other Deutsche Bank trader, Cedric Chanu, according to Garibotti. Chanu and another Deutsche Bank Trader, James Vorley, were sentenced last month to a year in prison each for their convictions in 2020 on spoofing charges at a separate trial.\n“I f..k the mkt around a lot,” Bases said in another message.\nBases and fellow Merrill Lynch trader John Pacilio face federal fraud charges for allegedly spoofing the futures market from 2008 to 2014.\nAnother episode described by Garibotti involved trades by Bases and Pacilio on Aug. 9, 2010, when both were working at Merrill Lynch.\nThat day, Bases placed an iceberg order to buy 10 contracts of platinum, with six being filled at placement, she said. Less than 10 seconds after Bases placed that buy order, Pacilio placed an order to sell 205 contracts for $15,856,750, which was almost 90% of what was visible on the exchange order book, Garibotti said. The price went down, and the rest of Bases’ order was filled, she said. Less than a second later, Pacilio’s sell order was canceled, she said.\nGaribotti said employees at Analysis Group put in about 3,000 hours studying data in this case over the course of several years, billing the government $1.2 million for its work.\nThe defense attorneys have not yet begun cross-examining Garibotti.\nIn opening arguments Tuesday, Bases’ defense attorney told the jury that once her client understood spoofing was illegal, he stopped doing it, and that nearly all the conduct the government identified was before the enactment of the Dodd-Frank Act, which specifically prohibited spoofing.\nThe case is U.S. v. Bases et al, 18-cr-00048, U.S. District Court, Northern District of Illinois (Chicago).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1621,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":172338953,"gmtCreate":1626934149472,"gmtModify":1633769583025,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wah","listText":"Wah","text":"Wah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/172338953","repostId":"2153477496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173711604,"gmtCreate":1626686239708,"gmtModify":1633924941495,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","listText":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","text":"Tell me your opinion about this news...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173711604","repostId":"1146536243","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146536243","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626683272,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146536243?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 16:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146536243","media":"zerohedge","summary":"This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","content":"<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: This Cycle Will Be \"Hotter But Shorter\" Than Usual<blockquote>摩根士丹利：本轮周期将比往常“更热但更短”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-19 16:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为这个经济周期将是正常的、强劲的、短暂的。这些假设中的每一个都受到市场的激烈争论。每一项都是我们投资策略的关键。</blockquote></p><p> The debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.</p><p><blockquote>关于周期“常态”的争论是不言自明的。毫不夸张地说，疫情造成了有记录以来最大幅度的产出下降。随后，在政策支持的帮助下，经济活动迅速回升。将这种情况视为独特的，不同于其他周期性经历的理由是，这种暴力的下跌和上涨从未允许传统的“重置”。</blockquote></p><p> But 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.</p><p><blockquote>但市场中的“正常”是一个有趣的概念，记忆的粗糙边缘往往会随着时间的推移而变得光滑和抛光。2003-07年的周期以大萧条以来最大的银行和房地产危机结束。1992-2000年的周期以巨大的股票泡沫破裂、广泛的会计欺诈和难以言喻的悲剧而告终。“正常”周期在理论上很好，但在实践中更难。</blockquote></p><p> Instead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.</p><p><blockquote>相反，让我们考虑一下为什么我们使用术语“周期”。经济和市场往往遵循周期性模式，这些模式往往会在市场表现中显现出来。我们关心的是那些模式，如果它们仍然适用，它们可以在不确定的地形中提供有用的指导。</blockquote></p><p> Was last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.</p><p><blockquote>去年的衰退之前是否存在收益率曲线倒挂、低波动性、低失业率、高消费者信心和股市广度收窄等周期后期条件？是的。由此产生的股票、信贷、收益率和收益率曲线的低谷是否符合市场和经济低点之间的通常节奏？他们做到了。随后反弹的领头羊是否是通常的早期周期赢家，如小型股和周期性股票、高收益信贷和工业金属？他们是。</blockquote></p><p> If it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are.&nbsp;If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should&nbsp;<i>continue</i>&nbsp;to do so.</p><p><blockquote>如果它像鸭子一样走路，像鸭子一样嘎嘎叫，我们认为这是一个正常的循环。或者这些事情实际上是正常的。如果到目前为止已经发生了很多“正常”的循环行为，那么它应该<i>继续</i>这样做。</blockquote></p><p> Specifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see&nbsp;The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>具体来说，这与市场复苏时的表现模式有关。随着复苏的推进，这些模式应该会发生变化。正如我的同事迈克尔·威尔逊所指出的，我们认为我们正在进入周期中期市场，尽管距离经济活动低点仅16个月。我们看到当前状况与2004年上半年有许多相似之处，2004年上半年是大幅通货再膨胀反弹之后的周期中期。重要的是，尽管最近对增长感到担忧，但我们认为全球复苏将继续推进（见增长恐慌周年纪念，2021年7月11日）。</blockquote></p><p> Because one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.<b>It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.</b></p><p><blockquote>因为人们总能找到适合他们特定周期观点的指标，所以我们长期以来一直是综合指数的粉丝。这就是我们的“周期模型”，它结合了美国宏观、信贷周期和企业侵略性的十个指标，以衡量我们在市场周期中的位置。在2019年6月进入周期后期“低迷”和2020年4月进入周期早期“修复”后，该指数飙升。<b>它上升得如此之快，以至于已经过了下一个阶段（“复苏”），直接进入了“扩张”。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41879c4f66b33597ee236bdd52841004\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Thisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',<b>and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends</b>. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.<b>It also hints at another possibility:&nbsp;this hotter cycle could be shorter.</b>This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.</p><p><blockquote>这很不寻常。“扩张”意味着捕捉“比正常情况更好且正在改善”的条件，<b>自1980年以来，“低迷”结束后平均需要35个月才能实现这一目标</b>它的迅速到来表明，在巨大的政策支持下，经济正在迅速复苏。<b>这也暗示了另一种可能性：这个更热的周期可能会更短。</b>这是我们的论点，它体现在我们的定量测量中。</blockquote></p><p> All this has a number of implications:</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都有许多含义：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>The shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases</b>. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.</li>  <li><b>In many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low</b>. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.</li>  <li><b>In equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios</b>. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.</li>  <li><b>Interest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model</b>. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.</li> </ul> This cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>周期越短，信贷相对于其他风险资产越差；信贷从“繁荣”中获得的收益较少，如果下一次衰退提前到来，信贷就会面临风险，并且随着企业信心的增强，信贷将面临更多的供应</b>在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国IG和HY Credit N1200万超额回报分别比平均水平差29个基点和161个基点。</li><li><b>在其中许多时期，尽管违约率仍然很低，但信贷表现却参差不齐</b>投资者应该尝试承担违约风险而不是利差风险：我们的信用策略师喜欢持有CDX HY 0-15%，并用CDX IG付款人利差进行对冲。</li><li><b>在股票方面，我们认为我们的模型支持投资组合更加平衡</b>我们看好美国和欧洲的医疗保健行业，因为该行业具有几个良好的因素：质量、低估值、高利差和低波动性。从全球来看，欧洲和日本的股市往往跑赢“中期周期”，我们认为它们可以再次这样做。</li><li><b>利率对复苏过于悲观。在我们周期模型的“扩张”阶段，美国10年期国债1200万奈拉回报率比平均水平低97个基点</b>.Guneet Dhingra和我们的美国利率策略团队在全球资产配置中转移了跑输大盘美国10年期国债，而我们反过来又转移了跑输大盘政府债券。</li></ul>这种循环是不寻常的。大多数“正常”周期都是。我们认为复苏是可持续的，而且更有可能“更热、更短”。出售国债并相信扩张。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-cycle-will-be-hotter-shorter-usual","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146536243","content_text":"We think that this economic cycle will be normal, strong and short. Each of these assumptions is being hotly debated by the market. Each is key to our investment strategy.\nThe debate over cycle 'normalcy' is self-explanatory. The pandemic created, without exaggeration, the single sharpest decline in output in recorded history. Then activity raced back, helped by policy support. The case for viewing this situation as unique, and distinct from other cyclical experiences, is based on the view that a fall and rise this violent never allowed for a traditional 'reset'.\nBut 'normal' in markets is a funny concept, with the rough edges of memory often smoothed and polished by the passage of time. The cycle of 2003-07 ended with the largest banking and housing crisis since the Great Depression. The cycle of 1992-2000 ended with the bursting of an enormous equity bubble, widespread accounting fraud and unspeakable tragedy. 'Normal' cycles are nice in theory, harder in practice.\nInstead, let’s consider why we use the term ‘cycle’ at all. Economies and markets tend to follow cyclical patterns, patterns that tend to show up in market performance. It is those patterns we care about, and if they still apply, they can provide a useful guide in uncertain terrain.\nWas last year’s recession preceded by late-cycle conditions such as an inverted yield curve, low volatility, low unemployment, high consumer confidence and narrowing equity market breadth? It was. Did the resulting troughs in equities, credit, yields and yield curves match the usual cadence between market and economic lows? They did. And were the leaders of the ensuing rally the usual early-cycle winners, like small and cyclical stocks, high yield credit and industrial metals? They were.\nIf it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck, we think that it’s a normal cycle. Or as normal as these things realistically are. If a lot of 'normal' cycle behavior has played out so far, it should continue to do so.\nSpecifically, this relates to patterns of performance as the market recovers. And as that recovery advances, those patterns should shift. As noted by my colleague Michael Wilson, we think that we are moving to a mid-cycle market, despite being just 16 months removed from the lows of economic activity. We see a number of similarities between current conditions and 1H04, a mid-cycle period that followed a large, reflationary rally. And importantly, despite recent fears about growth, we think that the global recovery will keep pushing on (see The Growth Scare Anniversary, July 11, 2021).\nBecause one can always find an indicator that fits their particular cycle view, we’ve long been fans of a composite. That’s our ‘cycle model’, which combines ten US metrics across macro, the credit cycle and corporate aggression to gauge where we are in the market cycle. After moving into late-cycle ‘downturn’ in June 2019, and early-cycle ‘repair’ in April 2020, it’s rocketed higher.It has risen so fast that it’s blown right past what should be the next phase ('recovery'), and moved right into ‘expansion’.\nThisis unusual. ‘Expansion’ is meant to capture conditions that are 'better than normal, and improving',and since 1980, it has taken an average of 35 months to get there after 'downturn' ends. Its speedy arrival speaks to a speedy recovery powered by enormous policy support.It also hints at another possibility: this hotter cycle could be shorter.This is our thesis, and it’s showing up in our quantitative measure.\nAll this has a number of implications:\n\nThe shorter the cycle, the worse for credit relative to other risky assets; credit enjoys fewer of the gains from the 'boom', is exposed if the next downturn is early, and faces more supply as corporate confidence increases. In the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model, US IG and HY credit N12M excess returns are 29bp and 161bp worse than average, respectively.\nIn many of those periods, more mixed credit performance occurs despite default rates remaining low. Investors should try to take default risk over spread risk: our credit strategists like owning CDX HY 0-15%, and hedging with CDX IG payer spreads.\nIn equities, we think that our model supports more balance in portfolios. We like healthcare in both the US and Europe as a sector with several nice factor exposures: quality, low valuation, high carry and low volatility. Globally, equities in Europe and Japan have tended to outperform 'mid-cycle', and we think that they can do so again.\nInterest rates are too pessimistic on the recovery. US 10-year Treasury N12M returns are 97bp worse than average during the ‘expansion’ phase of our cycle model. Guneet Dhingra and our US interest rate strategy team have moved underweight US 10-year Treasuries, and we in turn have moved back underweight government bonds in our global asset allocation.\n\nThis cycle is unusual. Most 'normal' cycles are. We think that the recovery is sustainable and more likely to be ‘hotter and shorter’. Sell Treasuries and trust the expansion.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802798887,"gmtCreate":1627803606449,"gmtModify":1633756229586,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802798887","repostId":"1142925544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者当心！股市正在进入今年最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"<p>“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.</p><p><blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的这个时候，”乐队唱着20世纪70年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆着在海滩或烧烤时的愉快时光。没有必要提醒当时的任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote></p><p> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.</p><p><blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔(Stephen Suttmeier)汇编的1928年以来的数据，8月的到来也意味着股市将进入历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现标准普尔500指数在8月、9月和10月的平均回报率为0.03%，这是大盘股基准今年最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们构成了唯一平均亏损的三个月期间。</blockquote></p><p> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7月份标普500的平均回报率为1.58%，其中59.1%的时间为正，而9月份的平均回报率为负1.03%，只有不到一半的时间（即45%）出现在正栏中。</blockquote></p><p> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.</p><p><blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。根据道琼斯统计专家的数据，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，这是自2018年9月以来最长的连续上涨。在此期间，其累计预付款为18.34%。</blockquote></p><p> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”</p><p><blockquote>8月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为0.70%，58.1%的时间为积极结果，标志着从“夏季暴跌”到“秋季暴跌”的转变。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.</p><p><blockquote>Suttmeier发现，毫不奇怪，8月至10月期间的落后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据1992年以来的记录，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在4月至7月期间波动性相对较低后，在这几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.</p><p><blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性艰难时期，Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向据称被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以38美元的价格出售了5500万股股票。在这个过程中，它为所有参与IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一项要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期38美元至42美元范围的低端。尽管周五有所回升，但其价格在首日交易中下跌了8.4%。截至本周末，持有Robinhood IPO的买家数量下降了7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.</p><p><blockquote>卖出高价的人包括该公司的联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔·特涅夫(Vladimir Tenev)和首席创意官白菊·巴特(Baiju Bhatt)，他们在IPO中每人抛售了125万股。正如我杰出的前任艾伦·阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢观察的那样，卖出股票有很多好的理由，但期望它上涨并不是其中之一。考虑到富有的所有者有能力通过廉价借贷将其资产货币化，并且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未像现在这样真实。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，特涅夫和巴特仍然在罗宾汉拥有大量股份。正如我们的同事Avi Salzman报道的那样，按首次发行价计算，这些股票价值25亿美元，Tenev和Bhatt保留了投票权。如果股价达到300美元，或者接近众所周知的十倍，两人还可以获得Tenev价值高达67亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt价值40亿美元的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”</p><p><blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪至34,248美元，这是美国工人的平均年薪。正如喜剧演员雅科夫·斯米尔诺夫喜欢说的：“多好的国家啊！”</blockquote></p><p> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.</p><p><blockquote>这些工人的状况将成为定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote></p><p> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测约为90万人。杰富瑞(Jefferies)经济学家Aneta Markowska和Thomas Simons估计，增幅可能会突破期待已久的100万大关；他们预测有120万。</blockquote></p><p> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)</p><p><blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有重大争议的问题。（有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事。）</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者当心！股市正在进入今年最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者当心！股市正在进入今年最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-01 11:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.</p><p><blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的这个时候，”乐队唱着20世纪70年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆着在海滩或烧烤时的愉快时光。没有必要提醒当时的任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote></p><p> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.</p><p><blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔(Stephen Suttmeier)汇编的1928年以来的数据，8月的到来也意味着股市将进入历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现标准普尔500指数在8月、9月和10月的平均回报率为0.03%，这是大盘股基准今年最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们构成了唯一平均亏损的三个月期间。</blockquote></p><p> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7月份标普500的平均回报率为1.58%，其中59.1%的时间为正，而9月份的平均回报率为负1.03%，只有不到一半的时间（即45%）出现在正栏中。</blockquote></p><p> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.</p><p><blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。根据道琼斯统计专家的数据，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，这是自2018年9月以来最长的连续上涨。在此期间，其累计预付款为18.34%。</blockquote></p><p> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”</p><p><blockquote>8月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为0.70%，58.1%的时间为积极结果，标志着从“夏季暴跌”到“秋季暴跌”的转变。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.</p><p><blockquote>Suttmeier发现，毫不奇怪，8月至10月期间的落后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据1992年以来的记录，芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)在4月至7月期间波动性相对较低后，在这几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.</p><p><blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是，如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性艰难时期，Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向据称被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以38美元的价格出售了5500万股股票。在这个过程中，它为所有参与IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一项要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期38美元至42美元范围的低端。尽管周五有所回升，但其价格在首日交易中下跌了8.4%。截至本周末，持有Robinhood IPO的买家数量下降了7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.</p><p><blockquote>卖出高价的人包括该公司的联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔·特涅夫(Vladimir Tenev)和首席创意官白菊·巴特(Baiju Bhatt)，他们在IPO中每人抛售了125万股。正如我杰出的前任艾伦·阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢观察的那样，卖出股票有很多好的理由，但期望它上涨并不是其中之一。考虑到富有的所有者有能力通过廉价借贷将其资产货币化，并且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未像现在这样真实。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，特涅夫和巴特仍然在罗宾汉拥有大量股份。正如我们的同事Avi Salzman报道的那样，按首次发行价计算，这些股票价值25亿美元，Tenev和Bhatt保留了投票权。如果股价达到300美元，或者接近众所周知的十倍，两人还可以获得Tenev价值高达67亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt价值40亿美元的股票奖励。</blockquote></p><p> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”</p><p><blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪至34,248美元，这是美国工人的平均年薪。正如喜剧演员雅科夫·斯米尔诺夫喜欢说的：“多好的国家啊！”</blockquote></p><p> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.</p><p><blockquote>这些工人的状况将成为定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote></p><p> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测约为90万人。杰富瑞(Jefferies)经济学家Aneta Markowska和Thomas Simons估计，增幅可能会突破期待已久的100万大关；他们预测有120万。</blockquote></p><p> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)</p><p><blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有重大争议的问题。（有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事。）</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1831,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177915656,"gmtCreate":1627175442575,"gmtModify":1633767511094,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177915656","repostId":"2153829859","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1761,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":174638495,"gmtCreate":1627094082717,"gmtModify":1633768033229,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174638495","repostId":"2153984791","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177912146,"gmtCreate":1627175389885,"gmtModify":1633767512378,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeah","listText":"Yeah","text":"Yeah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177912146","repostId":"2153989989","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175380536,"gmtCreate":1627006997725,"gmtModify":1633768832914,"author":{"id":"4089613720657990","authorId":"4089613720657990","name":"KCYP","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4089613720657990","idStr":"4089613720657990"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good&nbsp;","listText":"Good&nbsp;","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175380536","repostId":"2153658605","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1768,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}