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RebornNg
2021-08-09
预料之中的事情
特斯拉Cybertruck年内难产，交付日期推迟至2022年
RebornNg
2021-08-08
一点一点累积
RebornNg
2021-07-28
三周前开始以太坊的起伏带动整个市场
抱歉，原内容已删除
RebornNg
2021-07-27
还没到顶峰
抱歉，原内容已删除
RebornNg
2021-07-27
表现强劲是否是因为加密货币？
RebornNg
2021-07-26
Be alert
抱歉，原内容已删除
RebornNg
2021-07-26
It will be
Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company<blockquote>特斯拉可能成为一家订阅公司</blockquote>
RebornNg
2021-07-26
Like please
抱歉，原内容已删除
RebornNg
2021-07-26
Like
抱歉，原内容已删除
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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12:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉Cybertruck年内难产，交付日期推迟至2022年","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2158416592","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，据报道，特斯拉 Cybertruck电动皮卡的首批交付预计需要到明年才能完成。报道指出，特斯拉更新了其订单页面上的脚注，显示其Cybertruck的提车时间为2022年。在今年年初，马斯克表示，公司预计可能会在2021年底交付几台Cybertruck，但批量生产将在2022年。据了解，Cybertruck共设置了三种电动系统可供用户选择，目前预定量已经超过百万。马斯克指出，在Cybertruck电动皮卡的预订单中，双电机的比例占48%，三电机为44.5%，只有7.5%的预订者订购了单电机版本。","content":"<p>智通财经APP获悉，据报道，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA.US)Cybertruck电动皮卡的首批交付预计需要到明年才能完成。</p>\n<p>报道指出，特斯拉更新了其订单页面上的脚注，显示其Cybertruck的提车时间为2022年。</p>\n<p>在今年年初，马斯克表示，公司预计可能会在2021年底交付几台Cybertruck，但批量生产将在2022年。</p>\n<p>而此前有消息称，特斯拉在弗里蒙特工厂建设试点生产线，并且，该公司还计划在德州超级工厂运营这条生产线的所有细节，接受训练的团队被要求在6月份抵达德州开始工作。</p>\n<p>据了解，Cybertruck共设置了三种电动系统可供用户选择，目前预定量已经超过百万。马斯克指出，在Cybertruck电动皮卡的预订单中，双电机的比例占48%，三电机为44.5%，只有7.5%的预订者订购了单电机版本。</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉Cybertruck年内难产，交付日期推迟至2022年</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉Cybertruck年内难产，交付日期推迟至2022年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-09 12:44 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/529453.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，据报道，特斯拉(TSLA.US)Cybertruck电动皮卡的首批交付预计需要到明年才能完成。\n报道指出，特斯拉更新了其订单页面上的脚注，显示其Cybertruck的提车时间为2022年。\n在今年年初，马斯克表示，公司预计可能会在2021年底交付几台Cybertruck，但批量生产将在2022年。\n而此前有消息称，特斯拉在弗里蒙特工厂建设试点生产线，并且，该公司还计划在德州超级...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/529453.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b567bf1760bfed11e44b16a341afa3d","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/529453.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2158416592","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，据报道，特斯拉(TSLA.US)Cybertruck电动皮卡的首批交付预计需要到明年才能完成。\n报道指出，特斯拉更新了其订单页面上的脚注，显示其Cybertruck的提车时间为2022年。\n在今年年初，马斯克表示，公司预计可能会在2021年底交付几台Cybertruck，但批量生产将在2022年。\n而此前有消息称，特斯拉在弗里蒙特工厂建设试点生产线，并且，该公司还计划在德州超级工厂运营这条生产线的所有细节，接受训练的团队被要求在6月份抵达德州开始工作。\n据了解，Cybertruck共设置了三种电动系统可供用户选择，目前预定量已经超过百万。马斯克指出，在Cybertruck电动皮卡的预订单中，双电机的比例占48%，三电机为44.5%，只有7.5%的预订者订购了单电机版本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":891686733,"gmtCreate":1628386629422,"gmtModify":1633751336348,"author":{"id":"4090287502866540","authorId":"4090287502866540","name":"RebornNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b522b79b684a8ac75bba69dfe793c778","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090287502866540","authorIdStr":"4090287502866540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"一点一点累积","listText":"一点一点累积","text":"一点一点累积","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50669968f4286d72ed971b73aadb717f","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891686733","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":803276358,"gmtCreate":1627444904174,"gmtModify":1633764908521,"author":{"id":"4090287502866540","authorId":"4090287502866540","name":"RebornNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b522b79b684a8ac75bba69dfe793c778","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090287502866540","authorIdStr":"4090287502866540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"三周前开始以太坊的起伏带动整个市场","listText":"三周前开始以太坊的起伏带动整个市场","text":"三周前开始以太坊的起伏带动整个市场","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803276358","repostId":"1195441189","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":809959835,"gmtCreate":1627345149927,"gmtModify":1633765954423,"author":{"id":"4090287502866540","authorId":"4090287502866540","name":"RebornNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b522b79b684a8ac75bba69dfe793c778","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090287502866540","authorIdStr":"4090287502866540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"还没到顶峰","listText":"还没到顶峰","text":"还没到顶峰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809959835","repostId":"1151266467","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":809927347,"gmtCreate":1627345039589,"gmtModify":1633765956522,"author":{"id":"4090287502866540","authorId":"4090287502866540","name":"RebornNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b522b79b684a8ac75bba69dfe793c778","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090287502866540","authorIdStr":"4090287502866540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"表现强劲是否是因为加密货币？","listText":"表现强劲是否是因为加密货币？","text":"表现强劲是否是因为加密货币？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39d7689096e54f2efcea985c65c82bc","width":"1125","height":"2427"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809927347","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":800542235,"gmtCreate":1627309869427,"gmtModify":1633766254315,"author":{"id":"4090287502866540","authorId":"4090287502866540","name":"RebornNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b522b79b684a8ac75bba69dfe793c778","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090287502866540","authorIdStr":"4090287502866540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Be alert ","listText":"Be alert ","text":"Be alert","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800542235","repostId":"2154957883","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800853829,"gmtCreate":1627292631561,"gmtModify":1633766452002,"author":{"id":"4090287502866540","authorId":"4090287502866540","name":"RebornNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b522b79b684a8ac75bba69dfe793c778","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090287502866540","authorIdStr":"4090287502866540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It will be","listText":"It will be","text":"It will be","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800853829","repostId":"1175108896","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175108896","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627290545,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175108896?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 17:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company<blockquote>特斯拉可能成为一家订阅公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175108896","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Tesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.</li> <li>In this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.</li> <li>Technically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.</li> <li>I recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b0473d75b9ec97c9c4ae413f111f4f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉正在向类似 Adobe 的订阅商业模式发展，事实证明，这种模式的收入会飙升。</li><li>通过这种方式，特斯拉再次成为先行者，并将在未来几十年为行业制定标准。</li><li>从技术上讲，最近的走势是一个相当正常的模式，往往会带来更多的收益。</li><li>我建议 TSLA 多头在盈利前在头寸中添加信用策略，以获得保护和额外收入。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.</p><p><blockquote>我上一次写关于特斯拉 (TSLA) 的文章是在 2019 年，当时我建议在回调时买入。表示回调是指回调至 47 美元，特斯拉可能永远不会再达到这个数字。如今，TSLA 的售价超过 1,000 美元，这是有充分理由的。</blockquote></p><p> And today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.</p><p><blockquote>如今，特斯拉又有了一个理由来证明其高昂的价格是合理的。该公司推出了全自动驾驶（FSD）订阅。这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Subscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>订阅：终极盈利模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Software – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.</p><p><blockquote>软件——以及更广泛的技术——已经转向基于订阅的商业模式，事实证明，就盈利能力而言，这种模式远远优于旧的经营方式（直接销售产品）。我们曾经为 Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop 等产品支付过一次性费用，而现在几乎可以肯定，我们在产品生命周期内支付的费用远远超过一次性费用。对于技术发展较慢的汽车行业来说，订阅商业模式可以比传统模式从客户那里吸走更多的钱只是时间问题，我对特斯拉成为第一家采用这种策略的公司并不感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> I believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:</p><p><blockquote>我相信皮埃尔·费拉古明白这一点。摘自 SA 关于 FSD 订阅的上述链接新闻：</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.” Ferragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):</p><p><blockquote>New Street Research 分析师 Pierre Ferragu 是特斯拉 FSD 上涨的最大看涨者之一。他认为，到 2030 年，特斯拉将从销售一辆汽车中获得大约 7,000 美元的利润，从销售同一辆车的 FSD 订阅中获得近 23,000 美元的利润。如果Ferragu是正确的，整个行业有望转向自主订阅服务模式。”费拉古的预测与我对基于订阅的商业模式的看法不谋而合。特斯拉的收入和订阅模式很容易变得类似 Adobe，公司绝大部分收入都来自订阅。(通过 Adobe 的业绩，可以很容易地看出这种商业模式是如何运作的（尽管许多其他公司也看到了类似的结果）：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7890fd8becf42b56654cfdcdadfd97de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Of course, the stock sees results too:</p><p><blockquote>当然，该股也看到了结果：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e86fdc239f4d4e1f3dea8a10634bf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Importantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，费拉古指出，整个行业将转向订阅商业模式，我同意这种观点。有些人可能会说，汽车行业不是软件行业，在汽车方面，最好以合理的价格提供优质产品。但历史会证明这是不正确的：看看通用汽车 (GM) 是如何将福特 (F) 这家以创造持久耐用、高质量汽车为基础的公司推向计划报废范式（每年对每个产品线进行设计升级）行业已经陷入了这种模式。</blockquote></p><p> In the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.</p><p><blockquote>未来，特斯拉的大部分收入将不再来自汽车销售，而是来自订阅。这是大多数行业向前发展的新经济，特斯拉将成为汽车行业这一商业模式的先驱。我们已经看到，软件和电影（迪斯尼和 Netflix 等流媒体服务）是如何有利于盈利的，汽车也应该是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Consider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下：特斯拉在 2020 年售出了约 50 万辆汽车。随着柏林、上海和德克萨斯工厂今年的投产，特斯拉应该会在 2021 年额外生产 30 万辆汽车。按照这个速度，到 2022 年底，特斯拉将超过每年 100 万人大关（可能在 150 万人左右）。假设每年生产的汽车中只有一半最终获得 FSD 订阅，那么，la Adobe，订阅收入可以很快接近传统模式的收入——请注意，该模型非常保守，因为它忽略了 2020 年之前生产的所有汽车：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每年 FSD 订阅收入</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707addf56e3e845f8eb7727ba378c382\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> It is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>很难说订阅收入何时会超过汽车销售收入，因为该车型存在许多未知数，如特斯拉驾驶员订阅 FSD 的比例，以及 2023 款 Model 3 能否成功打入 “经济适用车 ”市场。然而，订阅收入的增长率是几何级数到指数级的，在未来几年内将达到两位数的百分比，到本十年末很可能成为特斯拉收入来源的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在这方面迈出了正确的一步，我们很可能会看到该公司克服困扰汽车行业几十年的障碍。如果是这样，在针对汽车行业的政治政策的情况下，我们可能会看到收益差异较低。例如，FSD 订阅的收入可能不会受到新关税和环境政策的影响，这两个监管来源通常针对汽车本身，而不是所使用的软件。这仍然是推测性的，但到目前为止，我们没有理由怀疑政府会在其碳减排法规或税收政策中专门针对 FSD 订阅。</blockquote></p><p> Once successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.</p><p><blockquote>一旦成功推出，FSD订阅可能会成为公司可靠的收入来源。随着订阅收入增长到超过销售收入的程度，投资者将越来越多地将特斯拉视为一项安全的投资。随着订阅收入超过传统销售收入，特斯拉的 IV 应该会下降，而 IV 的下降往往与股价上涨相关。</blockquote></p><p> From both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面和股票角度来看，FSD认购公告都是高度看涨的。我认为这是 TSLA 多头在任何重大回调时买入的一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> Yet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们必须承认，与所有新的商业模式一样，投资者也有固有的风险。虽然订阅模式本身非常有利可图，但特斯拉司机是否会接受FSD订阅仍然是成功采用该模式的关键因素。虽然我相信——由于其过往记录——特斯拉最终将解决其自动驾驶功能的技术问题，但我可以看到 FSD 可能失败的两个主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> First, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.</p><p><blockquote>首先，特斯拉可能无法将 FSD 提高到承诺的 5 级，这可能会导致订户提起集体诉讼。FSD的技术方面超出了我的专业知识，尽管我在人工智能方面的背景告诉我，达到5级是一项巨大的努力。马斯克过去已经成功地完成了巨大的努力，但也许那些比我更了解人工智能的人有充分的理由相信，这是马斯克将要死去的山丘。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>第二，价格点可能过高。每月只需 200 美元，你就可以租到一辆全新的本田汽车，或者你也可以进入特斯拉正在开发的 FSD，作为一种测试仪。随着我们进入 2023 年，这对特斯拉来说应该是重要的一年，售价 25,000 美元的 Model 2 使该公司能够接触到新的客户群体，我们需要重新考虑每月 200 美元的订阅是否会吸引普通特斯拉用户群。从长远来看，定价过高的订阅模式很容易固定，因此不应被视为牛市论点的巨大风险，但过高的价格可能会阻碍特斯拉在汽车行业率先实施订阅模式所需的初始市场渗透。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Bullishness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术看涨</b></blockquote></p><p> From a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度来看，特斯拉看起来也很乐观。虽然与过去几年相比，特斯拉经常被认为定价过高，但它并没有做出不符合该股特征的走势。最近的走势模式实际上看起来很像 2020 年初，就在大规模反弹之前：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba282cb205e46e0448e0f01c7d8ee3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Damon Verial；数据来自 Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Once you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:</p><p><blockquote>一旦你控制了交易日，走势看起来相对保守。它是关于给定季度的中位数变动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df19786e20b710470c561208d69d7c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Damon Verial；数据来自 Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:</p><p><blockquote>如果您将此推断到 200 个交易日，您会发现 TSLA 往往会再上涨 10%，波动性相当平均。2020 年的运动仅在规模上是一个异常值；这种模式本身与特斯拉通常的年度走势并没有太大区别：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15a41d91691e32e1243015029fa67fa9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Damon Verial；数据来自 Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> With TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉进入盈利阶段，一份令人印象深刻的盈利报告可能会给我们带来类似的上涨趋势。当然，在收益上玩 TSLA 是相当有风险的，这就是为什么我们在我的收益交易组（暴露收益）中通常不会在收益上玩 TSLA。因此，我建议那些对 TSLA 感兴趣的人在 FSD 订阅消息后买入，因为这是一个看涨的基本面催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Options Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期权策略</b></blockquote></p><p> If you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果您正在玩期权，您可能希望等到收益之后，这样您就不会面临波动性崩溃（期权 IV 迅速下跌，从而降低了多头期权的价值，因为多头期权也是多头织女星）。不过，如果您想采取期权策略来对冲收益风险，我建议您这样做。我假设你持有 100 股 TSLA 股票，从长远来看，这是一种额外利润的对冲方式：</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Sell 1x Jul 30 $700 put</li> <li>Buy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts</li> </ol> Net credit: $7000</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>7 月 30 日卖出 1x 700 美元看跌期权</li><li>购买 2 倍 7 月 30 日 650 美元看跌期权</li></ol>净信用：7000 美元</blockquote></p><p> This is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个不稳定的策略，这意味着它允许我们在任何一方都获利。主要风险是特斯拉是否盘整，7 月份剩余时间的交易价格严格在 650 美元至 700 美元之间。否则，我们将在任何一方获利，要么通过下行时的净多头看跌，要么通过股票加上从多头策略中获得的信用。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.</p><p><blockquote>即使您确信 TSLA 不会因盈利而抛售，该策略也会为您带来每 100 股额外 7000 美元的利润。你也有下行保护的附加值。请在评论区告诉我你的想法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉增加的 FSD 订阅大大提高了公司的最大收入潜力。事实证明，订阅服务可以快速而彻底改变公司的主要收入来源，并可以轻松地将特斯拉变成一家软件公司，而不是一家汽车公司。因此，我们需要考虑特斯拉进入电动汽车市场只是该公司的开始，特斯拉的财务未来在于其 FSD 服务。如果是这样，我们就低估了这家公司，就像我们用电动汽车的眼光来判断一家软件公司一样。</blockquote></p><p> I am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.</p><p><blockquote>由于 FSD 的前景，我从长远来看非常看好 TSLA。短期内，我认为技术面暗示着向上波动。有了 7 月 26 日的财报，你可能想对冲特斯拉波动性带来的下行空间。但总体而言，即使出现短期回调，以这个价格做多特斯拉也可能是一个有利可图的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company<blockquote>特斯拉可能成为一家订阅公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Could Become A Subscription Company<blockquote>特斯拉可能成为一家订阅公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 17:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Tesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.</li> <li>In this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.</li> <li>Technically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.</li> <li>I recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b0473d75b9ec97c9c4ae413f111f4f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉正在向类似 Adobe 的订阅商业模式发展，事实证明，这种模式的收入会飙升。</li><li>通过这种方式，特斯拉再次成为先行者，并将在未来几十年为行业制定标准。</li><li>从技术上讲，最近的走势是一个相当正常的模式，往往会带来更多的收益。</li><li>我建议 TSLA 多头在盈利前在头寸中添加信用策略，以获得保护和额外收入。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.</p><p><blockquote>我上一次写关于特斯拉 (TSLA) 的文章是在 2019 年，当时我建议在回调时买入。表示回调是指回调至 47 美元，特斯拉可能永远不会再达到这个数字。如今，TSLA 的售价超过 1,000 美元，这是有充分理由的。</blockquote></p><p> And today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.</p><p><blockquote>如今，特斯拉又有了一个理由来证明其高昂的价格是合理的。该公司推出了全自动驾驶（FSD）订阅。这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Subscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>订阅：终极盈利模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Software – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.</p><p><blockquote>软件——以及更广泛的技术——已经转向基于订阅的商业模式，事实证明，就盈利能力而言，这种模式远远优于旧的经营方式（直接销售产品）。我们曾经为 Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop 等产品支付过一次性费用，而现在几乎可以肯定，我们在产品生命周期内支付的费用远远超过一次性费用。对于技术发展较慢的汽车行业来说，订阅商业模式可以比传统模式从客户那里吸走更多的钱只是时间问题，我对特斯拉成为第一家采用这种策略的公司并不感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> I believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:</p><p><blockquote>我相信皮埃尔·费拉古明白这一点。摘自 SA 关于 FSD 订阅的上述链接新闻：</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.” Ferragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):</p><p><blockquote>New Street Research 分析师 Pierre Ferragu 是特斯拉 FSD 上涨的最大看涨者之一。他认为，到 2030 年，特斯拉将从销售一辆汽车中获得大约 7,000 美元的利润，从销售同一辆车的 FSD 订阅中获得近 23,000 美元的利润。如果Ferragu是正确的，整个行业有望转向自主订阅服务模式。”费拉古的预测与我对基于订阅的商业模式的看法不谋而合。特斯拉的收入和订阅模式很容易变得类似 Adobe，公司绝大部分收入都来自订阅。(通过 Adobe 的业绩，可以很容易地看出这种商业模式是如何运作的（尽管许多其他公司也看到了类似的结果）：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7890fd8becf42b56654cfdcdadfd97de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Of course, the stock sees results too:</p><p><blockquote>当然，该股也看到了结果：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e86fdc239f4d4e1f3dea8a10634bf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Importantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，费拉古指出，整个行业将转向订阅商业模式，我同意这种观点。有些人可能会说，汽车行业不是软件行业，在汽车方面，最好以合理的价格提供优质产品。但历史会证明这是不正确的：看看通用汽车 (GM) 是如何将福特 (F) 这家以创造持久耐用、高质量汽车为基础的公司推向计划报废范式（每年对每个产品线进行设计升级）行业已经陷入了这种模式。</blockquote></p><p> In the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.</p><p><blockquote>未来，特斯拉的大部分收入将不再来自汽车销售，而是来自订阅。这是大多数行业向前发展的新经济，特斯拉将成为汽车行业这一商业模式的先驱。我们已经看到，软件和电影（迪斯尼和 Netflix 等流媒体服务）是如何有利于盈利的，汽车也应该是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Consider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下：特斯拉在 2020 年售出了约 50 万辆汽车。随着柏林、上海和德克萨斯工厂今年的投产，特斯拉应该会在 2021 年额外生产 30 万辆汽车。按照这个速度，到 2022 年底，特斯拉将超过每年 100 万人大关（可能在 150 万人左右）。假设每年生产的汽车中只有一半最终获得 FSD 订阅，那么，la Adobe，订阅收入可以很快接近传统模式的收入——请注意，该模型非常保守，因为它忽略了 2020 年之前生产的所有汽车：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每年 FSD 订阅收入</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707addf56e3e845f8eb7727ba378c382\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> It is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>很难说订阅收入何时会超过汽车销售收入，因为该车型存在许多未知数，如特斯拉驾驶员订阅 FSD 的比例，以及 2023 款 Model 3 能否成功打入 “经济适用车 ”市场。然而，订阅收入的增长率是几何级数到指数级的，在未来几年内将达到两位数的百分比，到本十年末很可能成为特斯拉收入来源的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在这方面迈出了正确的一步，我们很可能会看到该公司克服困扰汽车行业几十年的障碍。如果是这样，在针对汽车行业的政治政策的情况下，我们可能会看到收益差异较低。例如，FSD 订阅的收入可能不会受到新关税和环境政策的影响，这两个监管来源通常针对汽车本身，而不是所使用的软件。这仍然是推测性的，但到目前为止，我们没有理由怀疑政府会在其碳减排法规或税收政策中专门针对 FSD 订阅。</blockquote></p><p> Once successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.</p><p><blockquote>一旦成功推出，FSD订阅可能会成为公司可靠的收入来源。随着订阅收入增长到超过销售收入的程度，投资者将越来越多地将特斯拉视为一项安全的投资。随着订阅收入超过传统销售收入，特斯拉的 IV 应该会下降，而 IV 的下降往往与股价上涨相关。</blockquote></p><p> From both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面和股票角度来看，FSD认购公告都是高度看涨的。我认为这是 TSLA 多头在任何重大回调时买入的一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> Yet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们必须承认，与所有新的商业模式一样，投资者也有固有的风险。虽然订阅模式本身非常有利可图，但特斯拉司机是否会接受FSD订阅仍然是成功采用该模式的关键因素。虽然我相信——由于其过往记录——特斯拉最终将解决其自动驾驶功能的技术问题，但我可以看到 FSD 可能失败的两个主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> First, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.</p><p><blockquote>首先，特斯拉可能无法将 FSD 提高到承诺的 5 级，这可能会导致订户提起集体诉讼。FSD的技术方面超出了我的专业知识，尽管我在人工智能方面的背景告诉我，达到5级是一项巨大的努力。马斯克过去已经成功地完成了巨大的努力，但也许那些比我更了解人工智能的人有充分的理由相信，这是马斯克将要死去的山丘。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>第二，价格点可能过高。每月只需 200 美元，你就可以租到一辆全新的本田汽车，或者你也可以进入特斯拉正在开发的 FSD，作为一种测试仪。随着我们进入 2023 年，这对特斯拉来说应该是重要的一年，售价 25,000 美元的 Model 2 使该公司能够接触到新的客户群体，我们需要重新考虑每月 200 美元的订阅是否会吸引普通特斯拉用户群。从长远来看，定价过高的订阅模式很容易固定，因此不应被视为牛市论点的巨大风险，但过高的价格可能会阻碍特斯拉在汽车行业率先实施订阅模式所需的初始市场渗透。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Bullishness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术看涨</b></blockquote></p><p> From a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度来看，特斯拉看起来也很乐观。虽然与过去几年相比，特斯拉经常被认为定价过高，但它并没有做出不符合该股特征的走势。最近的走势模式实际上看起来很像 2020 年初，就在大规模反弹之前：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba282cb205e46e0448e0f01c7d8ee3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Damon Verial；数据来自 Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Once you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:</p><p><blockquote>一旦你控制了交易日，走势看起来相对保守。它是关于给定季度的中位数变动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df19786e20b710470c561208d69d7c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Damon Verial；数据来自 Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:</p><p><blockquote>如果您将此推断到 200 个交易日，您会发现 TSLA 往往会再上涨 10%，波动性相当平均。2020 年的运动仅在规模上是一个异常值；这种模式本身与特斯拉通常的年度走势并没有太大区别：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15a41d91691e32e1243015029fa67fa9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Damon Verial；数据来自 Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> With TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉进入盈利阶段，一份令人印象深刻的盈利报告可能会给我们带来类似的上涨趋势。当然，在收益上玩 TSLA 是相当有风险的，这就是为什么我们在我的收益交易组（暴露收益）中通常不会在收益上玩 TSLA。因此，我建议那些对 TSLA 感兴趣的人在 FSD 订阅消息后买入，因为这是一个看涨的基本面催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Options Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期权策略</b></blockquote></p><p> If you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果您正在玩期权，您可能希望等到收益之后，这样您就不会面临波动性崩溃（期权 IV 迅速下跌，从而降低了多头期权的价值，因为多头期权也是多头织女星）。不过，如果您想采取期权策略来对冲收益风险，我建议您这样做。我假设你持有 100 股 TSLA 股票，从长远来看，这是一种额外利润的对冲方式：</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Sell 1x Jul 30 $700 put</li> <li>Buy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts</li> </ol> Net credit: $7000</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>7 月 30 日卖出 1x 700 美元看跌期权</li><li>购买 2 倍 7 月 30 日 650 美元看跌期权</li></ol>净信用：7000 美元</blockquote></p><p> This is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个不稳定的策略，这意味着它允许我们在任何一方都获利。主要风险是特斯拉是否盘整，7 月份剩余时间的交易价格严格在 650 美元至 700 美元之间。否则，我们将在任何一方获利，要么通过下行时的净多头看跌，要么通过股票加上从多头策略中获得的信用。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.</p><p><blockquote>即使您确信 TSLA 不会因盈利而抛售，该策略也会为您带来每 100 股额外 7000 美元的利润。你也有下行保护的附加值。请在评论区告诉我你的想法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉增加的 FSD 订阅大大提高了公司的最大收入潜力。事实证明，订阅服务可以快速而彻底改变公司的主要收入来源，并可以轻松地将特斯拉变成一家软件公司，而不是一家汽车公司。因此，我们需要考虑特斯拉进入电动汽车市场只是该公司的开始，特斯拉的财务未来在于其 FSD 服务。如果是这样，我们就低估了这家公司，就像我们用电动汽车的眼光来判断一家软件公司一样。</blockquote></p><p> I am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.</p><p><blockquote>由于 FSD 的前景，我从长远来看非常看好 TSLA。短期内，我认为技术面暗示着向上波动。有了 7 月 26 日的财报，你可能想对冲特斯拉波动性带来的下行空间。但总体而言，即使出现短期回调，以这个价格做多特斯拉也可能是一个有利可图的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175108896","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.\nTechnically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.\nI recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.\n\njetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nI last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.\nAnd today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.\nSubscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model\nSoftware – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.\nI believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:\n\n One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”\n\nFerragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):\n\nOf course, the stock sees results too:\n\nImportantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.\nIn the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.\nConsider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:\nRevenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIt is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.\nTesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.\nOnce successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.\nFrom both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.\nYet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.\nFirst, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.\nSecond, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.\nTechnical Bullishness\nFrom a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nOnce you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nIf you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nWith TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.\nOptions Strategy\nIf you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:\n\nSell 1x Jul 30 $700 put\nBuy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts\n\nNet credit: $7000\nThis is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.\nEven if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.\nConclusion\nTesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.\nI am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800850078,"gmtCreate":1627292510194,"gmtModify":1633766453882,"author":{"id":"4090287502866540","authorId":"4090287502866540","name":"RebornNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b522b79b684a8ac75bba69dfe793c778","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090287502866540","authorIdStr":"4090287502866540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800850078","repostId":"2154931205","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800824502,"gmtCreate":1627292403206,"gmtModify":1633766454453,"author":{"id":"4090287502866540","authorId":"4090287502866540","name":"RebornNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b522b79b684a8ac75bba69dfe793c778","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090287502866540","authorIdStr":"4090287502866540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800824502","repostId":"1100772026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":800542235,"gmtCreate":1627309869427,"gmtModify":1633766254315,"author":{"id":"4090287502866540","authorId":"4090287502866540","name":"RebornNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b522b79b684a8ac75bba69dfe793c778","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090287502866540","authorIdStr":"4090287502866540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Be alert ","listText":"Be alert ","text":"Be alert","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800542235","repostId":"2154957883","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800853829,"gmtCreate":1627292631561,"gmtModify":1633766452002,"author":{"id":"4090287502866540","authorId":"4090287502866540","name":"RebornNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b522b79b684a8ac75bba69dfe793c778","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090287502866540","authorIdStr":"4090287502866540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It will be","listText":"It will be","text":"It will be","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800853829","repostId":"1175108896","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175108896","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627290545,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175108896?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 17:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company<blockquote>特斯拉可能成为一家订阅公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175108896","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Tesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.</li> <li>In this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.</li> <li>Technically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.</li> <li>I recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b0473d75b9ec97c9c4ae413f111f4f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉正在向类似 Adobe 的订阅商业模式发展，事实证明，这种模式的收入会飙升。</li><li>通过这种方式，特斯拉再次成为先行者，并将在未来几十年为行业制定标准。</li><li>从技术上讲，最近的走势是一个相当正常的模式，往往会带来更多的收益。</li><li>我建议 TSLA 多头在盈利前在头寸中添加信用策略，以获得保护和额外收入。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.</p><p><blockquote>我上一次写关于特斯拉 (TSLA) 的文章是在 2019 年，当时我建议在回调时买入。表示回调是指回调至 47 美元，特斯拉可能永远不会再达到这个数字。如今，TSLA 的售价超过 1,000 美元，这是有充分理由的。</blockquote></p><p> And today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.</p><p><blockquote>如今，特斯拉又有了一个理由来证明其高昂的价格是合理的。该公司推出了全自动驾驶（FSD）订阅。这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Subscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>订阅：终极盈利模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Software – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.</p><p><blockquote>软件——以及更广泛的技术——已经转向基于订阅的商业模式，事实证明，就盈利能力而言，这种模式远远优于旧的经营方式（直接销售产品）。我们曾经为 Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop 等产品支付过一次性费用，而现在几乎可以肯定，我们在产品生命周期内支付的费用远远超过一次性费用。对于技术发展较慢的汽车行业来说，订阅商业模式可以比传统模式从客户那里吸走更多的钱只是时间问题，我对特斯拉成为第一家采用这种策略的公司并不感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> I believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:</p><p><blockquote>我相信皮埃尔·费拉古明白这一点。摘自 SA 关于 FSD 订阅的上述链接新闻：</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.” Ferragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):</p><p><blockquote>New Street Research 分析师 Pierre Ferragu 是特斯拉 FSD 上涨的最大看涨者之一。他认为，到 2030 年，特斯拉将从销售一辆汽车中获得大约 7,000 美元的利润，从销售同一辆车的 FSD 订阅中获得近 23,000 美元的利润。如果Ferragu是正确的，整个行业有望转向自主订阅服务模式。”费拉古的预测与我对基于订阅的商业模式的看法不谋而合。特斯拉的收入和订阅模式很容易变得类似 Adobe，公司绝大部分收入都来自订阅。(通过 Adobe 的业绩，可以很容易地看出这种商业模式是如何运作的（尽管许多其他公司也看到了类似的结果）：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7890fd8becf42b56654cfdcdadfd97de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Of course, the stock sees results too:</p><p><blockquote>当然，该股也看到了结果：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e86fdc239f4d4e1f3dea8a10634bf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Importantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，费拉古指出，整个行业将转向订阅商业模式，我同意这种观点。有些人可能会说，汽车行业不是软件行业，在汽车方面，最好以合理的价格提供优质产品。但历史会证明这是不正确的：看看通用汽车 (GM) 是如何将福特 (F) 这家以创造持久耐用、高质量汽车为基础的公司推向计划报废范式（每年对每个产品线进行设计升级）行业已经陷入了这种模式。</blockquote></p><p> In the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.</p><p><blockquote>未来，特斯拉的大部分收入将不再来自汽车销售，而是来自订阅。这是大多数行业向前发展的新经济，特斯拉将成为汽车行业这一商业模式的先驱。我们已经看到，软件和电影（迪斯尼和 Netflix 等流媒体服务）是如何有利于盈利的，汽车也应该是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Consider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下：特斯拉在 2020 年售出了约 50 万辆汽车。随着柏林、上海和德克萨斯工厂今年的投产，特斯拉应该会在 2021 年额外生产 30 万辆汽车。按照这个速度，到 2022 年底，特斯拉将超过每年 100 万人大关（可能在 150 万人左右）。假设每年生产的汽车中只有一半最终获得 FSD 订阅，那么，la Adobe，订阅收入可以很快接近传统模式的收入——请注意，该模型非常保守，因为它忽略了 2020 年之前生产的所有汽车：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每年 FSD 订阅收入</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707addf56e3e845f8eb7727ba378c382\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> It is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>很难说订阅收入何时会超过汽车销售收入，因为该车型存在许多未知数，如特斯拉驾驶员订阅 FSD 的比例，以及 2023 款 Model 3 能否成功打入 “经济适用车 ”市场。然而，订阅收入的增长率是几何级数到指数级的，在未来几年内将达到两位数的百分比，到本十年末很可能成为特斯拉收入来源的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在这方面迈出了正确的一步，我们很可能会看到该公司克服困扰汽车行业几十年的障碍。如果是这样，在针对汽车行业的政治政策的情况下，我们可能会看到收益差异较低。例如，FSD 订阅的收入可能不会受到新关税和环境政策的影响，这两个监管来源通常针对汽车本身，而不是所使用的软件。这仍然是推测性的，但到目前为止，我们没有理由怀疑政府会在其碳减排法规或税收政策中专门针对 FSD 订阅。</blockquote></p><p> Once successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.</p><p><blockquote>一旦成功推出，FSD订阅可能会成为公司可靠的收入来源。随着订阅收入增长到超过销售收入的程度，投资者将越来越多地将特斯拉视为一项安全的投资。随着订阅收入超过传统销售收入，特斯拉的 IV 应该会下降，而 IV 的下降往往与股价上涨相关。</blockquote></p><p> From both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面和股票角度来看，FSD认购公告都是高度看涨的。我认为这是 TSLA 多头在任何重大回调时买入的一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> Yet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们必须承认，与所有新的商业模式一样，投资者也有固有的风险。虽然订阅模式本身非常有利可图，但特斯拉司机是否会接受FSD订阅仍然是成功采用该模式的关键因素。虽然我相信——由于其过往记录——特斯拉最终将解决其自动驾驶功能的技术问题，但我可以看到 FSD 可能失败的两个主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> First, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.</p><p><blockquote>首先，特斯拉可能无法将 FSD 提高到承诺的 5 级，这可能会导致订户提起集体诉讼。FSD的技术方面超出了我的专业知识，尽管我在人工智能方面的背景告诉我，达到5级是一项巨大的努力。马斯克过去已经成功地完成了巨大的努力，但也许那些比我更了解人工智能的人有充分的理由相信，这是马斯克将要死去的山丘。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>第二，价格点可能过高。每月只需 200 美元，你就可以租到一辆全新的本田汽车，或者你也可以进入特斯拉正在开发的 FSD，作为一种测试仪。随着我们进入 2023 年，这对特斯拉来说应该是重要的一年，售价 25,000 美元的 Model 2 使该公司能够接触到新的客户群体，我们需要重新考虑每月 200 美元的订阅是否会吸引普通特斯拉用户群。从长远来看，定价过高的订阅模式很容易固定，因此不应被视为牛市论点的巨大风险，但过高的价格可能会阻碍特斯拉在汽车行业率先实施订阅模式所需的初始市场渗透。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Bullishness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术看涨</b></blockquote></p><p> From a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度来看，特斯拉看起来也很乐观。虽然与过去几年相比，特斯拉经常被认为定价过高，但它并没有做出不符合该股特征的走势。最近的走势模式实际上看起来很像 2020 年初，就在大规模反弹之前：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba282cb205e46e0448e0f01c7d8ee3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Damon Verial；数据来自 Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Once you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:</p><p><blockquote>一旦你控制了交易日，走势看起来相对保守。它是关于给定季度的中位数变动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df19786e20b710470c561208d69d7c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Damon Verial；数据来自 Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:</p><p><blockquote>如果您将此推断到 200 个交易日，您会发现 TSLA 往往会再上涨 10%，波动性相当平均。2020 年的运动仅在规模上是一个异常值；这种模式本身与特斯拉通常的年度走势并没有太大区别：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15a41d91691e32e1243015029fa67fa9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Damon Verial；数据来自 Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> With TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉进入盈利阶段，一份令人印象深刻的盈利报告可能会给我们带来类似的上涨趋势。当然，在收益上玩 TSLA 是相当有风险的，这就是为什么我们在我的收益交易组（暴露收益）中通常不会在收益上玩 TSLA。因此，我建议那些对 TSLA 感兴趣的人在 FSD 订阅消息后买入，因为这是一个看涨的基本面催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Options Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期权策略</b></blockquote></p><p> If you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果您正在玩期权，您可能希望等到收益之后，这样您就不会面临波动性崩溃（期权 IV 迅速下跌，从而降低了多头期权的价值，因为多头期权也是多头织女星）。不过，如果您想采取期权策略来对冲收益风险，我建议您这样做。我假设你持有 100 股 TSLA 股票，从长远来看，这是一种额外利润的对冲方式：</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Sell 1x Jul 30 $700 put</li> <li>Buy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts</li> </ol> Net credit: $7000</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>7 月 30 日卖出 1x 700 美元看跌期权</li><li>购买 2 倍 7 月 30 日 650 美元看跌期权</li></ol>净信用：7000 美元</blockquote></p><p> This is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个不稳定的策略，这意味着它允许我们在任何一方都获利。主要风险是特斯拉是否盘整，7 月份剩余时间的交易价格严格在 650 美元至 700 美元之间。否则，我们将在任何一方获利，要么通过下行时的净多头看跌，要么通过股票加上从多头策略中获得的信用。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.</p><p><blockquote>即使您确信 TSLA 不会因盈利而抛售，该策略也会为您带来每 100 股额外 7000 美元的利润。你也有下行保护的附加值。请在评论区告诉我你的想法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉增加的 FSD 订阅大大提高了公司的最大收入潜力。事实证明，订阅服务可以快速而彻底改变公司的主要收入来源，并可以轻松地将特斯拉变成一家软件公司，而不是一家汽车公司。因此，我们需要考虑特斯拉进入电动汽车市场只是该公司的开始，特斯拉的财务未来在于其 FSD 服务。如果是这样，我们就低估了这家公司，就像我们用电动汽车的眼光来判断一家软件公司一样。</blockquote></p><p> I am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.</p><p><blockquote>由于 FSD 的前景，我从长远来看非常看好 TSLA。短期内，我认为技术面暗示着向上波动。有了 7 月 26 日的财报，你可能想对冲特斯拉波动性带来的下行空间。但总体而言，即使出现短期回调，以这个价格做多特斯拉也可能是一个有利可图的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company<blockquote>特斯拉可能成为一家订阅公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Could Become A Subscription Company<blockquote>特斯拉可能成为一家订阅公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 17:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Tesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.</li> <li>In this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.</li> <li>Technically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.</li> <li>I recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b0473d75b9ec97c9c4ae413f111f4f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉正在向类似 Adobe 的订阅商业模式发展，事实证明，这种模式的收入会飙升。</li><li>通过这种方式，特斯拉再次成为先行者，并将在未来几十年为行业制定标准。</li><li>从技术上讲，最近的走势是一个相当正常的模式，往往会带来更多的收益。</li><li>我建议 TSLA 多头在盈利前在头寸中添加信用策略，以获得保护和额外收入。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.</p><p><blockquote>我上一次写关于特斯拉 (TSLA) 的文章是在 2019 年，当时我建议在回调时买入。表示回调是指回调至 47 美元，特斯拉可能永远不会再达到这个数字。如今，TSLA 的售价超过 1,000 美元，这是有充分理由的。</blockquote></p><p> And today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.</p><p><blockquote>如今，特斯拉又有了一个理由来证明其高昂的价格是合理的。该公司推出了全自动驾驶（FSD）订阅。这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Subscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>订阅：终极盈利模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Software – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.</p><p><blockquote>软件——以及更广泛的技术——已经转向基于订阅的商业模式，事实证明，就盈利能力而言，这种模式远远优于旧的经营方式（直接销售产品）。我们曾经为 Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop 等产品支付过一次性费用，而现在几乎可以肯定，我们在产品生命周期内支付的费用远远超过一次性费用。对于技术发展较慢的汽车行业来说，订阅商业模式可以比传统模式从客户那里吸走更多的钱只是时间问题，我对特斯拉成为第一家采用这种策略的公司并不感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> I believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:</p><p><blockquote>我相信皮埃尔·费拉古明白这一点。摘自 SA 关于 FSD 订阅的上述链接新闻：</blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.” Ferragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):</p><p><blockquote>New Street Research 分析师 Pierre Ferragu 是特斯拉 FSD 上涨的最大看涨者之一。他认为，到 2030 年，特斯拉将从销售一辆汽车中获得大约 7,000 美元的利润，从销售同一辆车的 FSD 订阅中获得近 23,000 美元的利润。如果Ferragu是正确的，整个行业有望转向自主订阅服务模式。”费拉古的预测与我对基于订阅的商业模式的看法不谋而合。特斯拉的收入和订阅模式很容易变得类似 Adobe，公司绝大部分收入都来自订阅。(通过 Adobe 的业绩，可以很容易地看出这种商业模式是如何运作的（尽管许多其他公司也看到了类似的结果）：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7890fd8becf42b56654cfdcdadfd97de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Of course, the stock sees results too:</p><p><blockquote>当然，该股也看到了结果：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e86fdc239f4d4e1f3dea8a10634bf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Importantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，费拉古指出，整个行业将转向订阅商业模式，我同意这种观点。有些人可能会说，汽车行业不是软件行业，在汽车方面，最好以合理的价格提供优质产品。但历史会证明这是不正确的：看看通用汽车 (GM) 是如何将福特 (F) 这家以创造持久耐用、高质量汽车为基础的公司推向计划报废范式（每年对每个产品线进行设计升级）行业已经陷入了这种模式。</blockquote></p><p> In the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.</p><p><blockquote>未来，特斯拉的大部分收入将不再来自汽车销售，而是来自订阅。这是大多数行业向前发展的新经济，特斯拉将成为汽车行业这一商业模式的先驱。我们已经看到，软件和电影（迪斯尼和 Netflix 等流媒体服务）是如何有利于盈利的，汽车也应该是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Consider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下：特斯拉在 2020 年售出了约 50 万辆汽车。随着柏林、上海和德克萨斯工厂今年的投产，特斯拉应该会在 2021 年额外生产 30 万辆汽车。按照这个速度，到 2022 年底，特斯拉将超过每年 100 万人大关（可能在 150 万人左右）。假设每年生产的汽车中只有一半最终获得 FSD 订阅，那么，la Adobe，订阅收入可以很快接近传统模式的收入——请注意，该模型非常保守，因为它忽略了 2020 年之前生产的所有汽车：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每年 FSD 订阅收入</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707addf56e3e845f8eb7727ba378c382\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table> <tbody> <tr></tr> </tbody> </table> It is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>很难说订阅收入何时会超过汽车销售收入，因为该车型存在许多未知数，如特斯拉驾驶员订阅 FSD 的比例，以及 2023 款 Model 3 能否成功打入 “经济适用车 ”市场。然而，订阅收入的增长率是几何级数到指数级的，在未来几年内将达到两位数的百分比，到本十年末很可能成为特斯拉收入来源的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在这方面迈出了正确的一步，我们很可能会看到该公司克服困扰汽车行业几十年的障碍。如果是这样，在针对汽车行业的政治政策的情况下，我们可能会看到收益差异较低。例如，FSD 订阅的收入可能不会受到新关税和环境政策的影响，这两个监管来源通常针对汽车本身，而不是所使用的软件。这仍然是推测性的，但到目前为止，我们没有理由怀疑政府会在其碳减排法规或税收政策中专门针对 FSD 订阅。</blockquote></p><p> Once successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.</p><p><blockquote>一旦成功推出，FSD订阅可能会成为公司可靠的收入来源。随着订阅收入增长到超过销售收入的程度，投资者将越来越多地将特斯拉视为一项安全的投资。随着订阅收入超过传统销售收入，特斯拉的 IV 应该会下降，而 IV 的下降往往与股价上涨相关。</blockquote></p><p> From both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.</p><p><blockquote>从基本面和股票角度来看，FSD认购公告都是高度看涨的。我认为这是 TSLA 多头在任何重大回调时买入的一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> Yet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们必须承认，与所有新的商业模式一样，投资者也有固有的风险。虽然订阅模式本身非常有利可图，但特斯拉司机是否会接受FSD订阅仍然是成功采用该模式的关键因素。虽然我相信——由于其过往记录——特斯拉最终将解决其自动驾驶功能的技术问题，但我可以看到 FSD 可能失败的两个主要原因。</blockquote></p><p> First, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.</p><p><blockquote>首先，特斯拉可能无法将 FSD 提高到承诺的 5 级，这可能会导致订户提起集体诉讼。FSD的技术方面超出了我的专业知识，尽管我在人工智能方面的背景告诉我，达到5级是一项巨大的努力。马斯克过去已经成功地完成了巨大的努力，但也许那些比我更了解人工智能的人有充分的理由相信，这是马斯克将要死去的山丘。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>第二，价格点可能过高。每月只需 200 美元，你就可以租到一辆全新的本田汽车，或者你也可以进入特斯拉正在开发的 FSD，作为一种测试仪。随着我们进入 2023 年，这对特斯拉来说应该是重要的一年，售价 25,000 美元的 Model 2 使该公司能够接触到新的客户群体，我们需要重新考虑每月 200 美元的订阅是否会吸引普通特斯拉用户群。从长远来看，定价过高的订阅模式很容易固定，因此不应被视为牛市论点的巨大风险，但过高的价格可能会阻碍特斯拉在汽车行业率先实施订阅模式所需的初始市场渗透。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Bullishness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术看涨</b></blockquote></p><p> From a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度来看，特斯拉看起来也很乐观。虽然与过去几年相比，特斯拉经常被认为定价过高，但它并没有做出不符合该股特征的走势。最近的走势模式实际上看起来很像 2020 年初，就在大规模反弹之前：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba282cb205e46e0448e0f01c7d8ee3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Damon Verial；数据来自 Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Once you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:</p><p><blockquote>一旦你控制了交易日，走势看起来相对保守。它是关于给定季度的中位数变动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df19786e20b710470c561208d69d7c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Damon Verial；数据来自 Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:</p><p><blockquote>如果您将此推断到 200 个交易日，您会发现 TSLA 往往会再上涨 10%，波动性相当平均。2020 年的运动仅在规模上是一个异常值；这种模式本身与特斯拉通常的年度走势并没有太大区别：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15a41d91691e32e1243015029fa67fa9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（资料来源：Damon Verial；数据来自 Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> With TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉进入盈利阶段，一份令人印象深刻的盈利报告可能会给我们带来类似的上涨趋势。当然，在收益上玩 TSLA 是相当有风险的，这就是为什么我们在我的收益交易组（暴露收益）中通常不会在收益上玩 TSLA。因此，我建议那些对 TSLA 感兴趣的人在 FSD 订阅消息后买入，因为这是一个看涨的基本面催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Options Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期权策略</b></blockquote></p><p> If you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果您正在玩期权，您可能希望等到收益之后，这样您就不会面临波动性崩溃（期权 IV 迅速下跌，从而降低了多头期权的价值，因为多头期权也是多头织女星）。不过，如果您想采取期权策略来对冲收益风险，我建议您这样做。我假设你持有 100 股 TSLA 股票，从长远来看，这是一种额外利润的对冲方式：</blockquote></p><p> <ol> <li>Sell 1x Jul 30 $700 put</li> <li>Buy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts</li> </ol> Net credit: $7000</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>7 月 30 日卖出 1x 700 美元看跌期权</li><li>购买 2 倍 7 月 30 日 650 美元看跌期权</li></ol>净信用：7000 美元</blockquote></p><p> This is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个不稳定的策略，这意味着它允许我们在任何一方都获利。主要风险是特斯拉是否盘整，7 月份剩余时间的交易价格严格在 650 美元至 700 美元之间。否则，我们将在任何一方获利，要么通过下行时的净多头看跌，要么通过股票加上从多头策略中获得的信用。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.</p><p><blockquote>即使您确信 TSLA 不会因盈利而抛售，该策略也会为您带来每 100 股额外 7000 美元的利润。你也有下行保护的附加值。请在评论区告诉我你的想法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉增加的 FSD 订阅大大提高了公司的最大收入潜力。事实证明，订阅服务可以快速而彻底改变公司的主要收入来源，并可以轻松地将特斯拉变成一家软件公司，而不是一家汽车公司。因此，我们需要考虑特斯拉进入电动汽车市场只是该公司的开始，特斯拉的财务未来在于其 FSD 服务。如果是这样，我们就低估了这家公司，就像我们用电动汽车的眼光来判断一家软件公司一样。</blockquote></p><p> I am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.</p><p><blockquote>由于 FSD 的前景，我从长远来看非常看好 TSLA。短期内，我认为技术面暗示着向上波动。有了 7 月 26 日的财报，你可能想对冲特斯拉波动性带来的下行空间。但总体而言，即使出现短期回调，以这个价格做多特斯拉也可能是一个有利可图的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175108896","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.\nTechnically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.\nI recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.\n\njetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nI last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.\nAnd today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.\nSubscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model\nSoftware – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.\nI believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:\n\n One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”\n\nFerragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):\n\nOf course, the stock sees results too:\n\nImportantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.\nIn the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.\nConsider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:\nRevenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIt is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.\nTesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.\nOnce successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.\nFrom both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.\nYet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.\nFirst, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.\nSecond, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.\nTechnical Bullishness\nFrom a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nOnce you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nIf you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nWith TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.\nOptions Strategy\nIf you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:\n\nSell 1x Jul 30 $700 put\nBuy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts\n\nNet credit: $7000\nThis is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.\nEven if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.\nConclusion\nTesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.\nI am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800850078,"gmtCreate":1627292510194,"gmtModify":1633766453882,"author":{"id":"4090287502866540","authorId":"4090287502866540","name":"RebornNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b522b79b684a8ac75bba69dfe793c778","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090287502866540","authorIdStr":"4090287502866540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like please","listText":"Like please","text":"Like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800850078","repostId":"2154931205","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2769,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800824502,"gmtCreate":1627292403206,"gmtModify":1633766454453,"author":{"id":"4090287502866540","authorId":"4090287502866540","name":"RebornNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b522b79b684a8ac75bba69dfe793c778","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090287502866540","authorIdStr":"4090287502866540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800824502","repostId":"1100772026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":898820502,"gmtCreate":1628485611406,"gmtModify":1633746767241,"author":{"id":"4090287502866540","authorId":"4090287502866540","name":"RebornNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b522b79b684a8ac75bba69dfe793c778","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090287502866540","authorIdStr":"4090287502866540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"预料之中的事情","listText":"预料之中的事情","text":"预料之中的事情","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/898820502","repostId":"2158416592","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2158416592","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628484262,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2158416592?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-09 12:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉Cybertruck年内难产，交付日期推迟至2022年","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2158416592","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，据报道，特斯拉 Cybertruck电动皮卡的首批交付预计需要到明年才能完成。报道指出，特斯拉更新了其订单页面上的脚注，显示其Cybertruck的提车时间为2022年。在今年年初，马斯克表示，公司预计可能会在2021年底交付几台Cybertruck，但批量生产将在2022年。据了解，Cybertruck共设置了三种电动系统可供用户选择，目前预定量已经超过百万。马斯克指出，在Cybertruck电动皮卡的预订单中，双电机的比例占48%，三电机为44.5%，只有7.5%的预订者订购了单电机版本。","content":"<p>智通财经APP获悉，据报道，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA.US)Cybertruck电动皮卡的首批交付预计需要到明年才能完成。</p>\n<p>报道指出，特斯拉更新了其订单页面上的脚注，显示其Cybertruck的提车时间为2022年。</p>\n<p>在今年年初，马斯克表示，公司预计可能会在2021年底交付几台Cybertruck，但批量生产将在2022年。</p>\n<p>而此前有消息称，特斯拉在弗里蒙特工厂建设试点生产线，并且，该公司还计划在德州超级工厂运营这条生产线的所有细节，接受训练的团队被要求在6月份抵达德州开始工作。</p>\n<p>据了解，Cybertruck共设置了三种电动系统可供用户选择，目前预定量已经超过百万。马斯克指出，在Cybertruck电动皮卡的预订单中，双电机的比例占48%，三电机为44.5%，只有7.5%的预订者订购了单电机版本。</p>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉Cybertruck年内难产，交付日期推迟至2022年</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉Cybertruck年内难产，交付日期推迟至2022年\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-09 12:44 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/529453.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，据报道，特斯拉(TSLA.US)Cybertruck电动皮卡的首批交付预计需要到明年才能完成。\n报道指出，特斯拉更新了其订单页面上的脚注，显示其Cybertruck的提车时间为2022年。\n在今年年初，马斯克表示，公司预计可能会在2021年底交付几台Cybertruck，但批量生产将在2022年。\n而此前有消息称，特斯拉在弗里蒙特工厂建设试点生产线，并且，该公司还计划在德州超级...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/529453.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b567bf1760bfed11e44b16a341afa3d","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/529453.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2158416592","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，据报道，特斯拉(TSLA.US)Cybertruck电动皮卡的首批交付预计需要到明年才能完成。\n报道指出，特斯拉更新了其订单页面上的脚注，显示其Cybertruck的提车时间为2022年。\n在今年年初，马斯克表示，公司预计可能会在2021年底交付几台Cybertruck，但批量生产将在2022年。\n而此前有消息称，特斯拉在弗里蒙特工厂建设试点生产线，并且，该公司还计划在德州超级工厂运营这条生产线的所有细节，接受训练的团队被要求在6月份抵达德州开始工作。\n据了解，Cybertruck共设置了三种电动系统可供用户选择，目前预定量已经超过百万。马斯克指出，在Cybertruck电动皮卡的预订单中，双电机的比例占48%，三电机为44.5%，只有7.5%的预订者订购了单电机版本。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":809959835,"gmtCreate":1627345149927,"gmtModify":1633765954423,"author":{"id":"4090287502866540","authorId":"4090287502866540","name":"RebornNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b522b79b684a8ac75bba69dfe793c778","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090287502866540","authorIdStr":"4090287502866540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"还没到顶峰","listText":"还没到顶峰","text":"还没到顶峰","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809959835","repostId":"1151266467","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3743,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":891686733,"gmtCreate":1628386629422,"gmtModify":1633751336348,"author":{"id":"4090287502866540","authorId":"4090287502866540","name":"RebornNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b522b79b684a8ac75bba69dfe793c778","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090287502866540","authorIdStr":"4090287502866540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"一点一点累积","listText":"一点一点累积","text":"一点一点累积","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50669968f4286d72ed971b73aadb717f","width":"1284","height":"2223"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891686733","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2086,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":803276358,"gmtCreate":1627444904174,"gmtModify":1633764908521,"author":{"id":"4090287502866540","authorId":"4090287502866540","name":"RebornNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b522b79b684a8ac75bba69dfe793c778","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090287502866540","authorIdStr":"4090287502866540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"三周前开始以太坊的起伏带动整个市场","listText":"三周前开始以太坊的起伏带动整个市场","text":"三周前开始以太坊的起伏带动整个市场","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/803276358","repostId":"1195441189","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3824,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":809927347,"gmtCreate":1627345039589,"gmtModify":1633765956522,"author":{"id":"4090287502866540","authorId":"4090287502866540","name":"RebornNg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b522b79b684a8ac75bba69dfe793c778","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090287502866540","authorIdStr":"4090287502866540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"表现强劲是否是因为加密货币？","listText":"表现强劲是否是因为加密货币？","text":"表现强劲是否是因为加密货币？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d39d7689096e54f2efcea985c65c82bc","width":"1125","height":"2427"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809927347","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3420,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
