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BennyB

BennyB

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2021-09-06

My balls can defy the odds of September

Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?

2021-09-04

Not bad tbh

2021-08-27

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$time to sell soon

2021-08-27

Lmao usa

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2021-08-27

Hmmmm

2021-08-26

Looking good

2021-08-26

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$my pp hardddd

2021-08-26

Dolla dolla

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2021-08-26

Likelike

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2021-08-25

Based

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2021-08-25

Semicon industry looking good

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2021-08-25

Might be time to buy?

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2021-08-25

Good news!

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2021-08-25

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$to the mo0o0o0o0on

2021-08-25

Nice nice picture

2021-08-25

Nice nice nice

2021-08-18

Gotta be prepared

6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?

2021-08-18

Buying the dip

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2021-08-18

[得意]

3 Stocks I'm Never Selling

2021-08-18

Nice

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balls can defy the odds of September&nbsp;","listText":"My balls can defy the odds of September&nbsp;","text":"My balls can defy the odds of September","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817614285","repostId":"1136345203","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1136345203","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630932942,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136345203?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 20:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136345203","media":"zerohedge","summary":"While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the ","content":"<p>While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the bulls defined that weakness posting an almost 3% gain. However, as discussed in our&nbsp;<i><b>Daily Market Commentary</b></i>&nbsp;on Wednesday:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“August seasonality was a bust with the market advancing 2.6%. Will September seasonality prove to be more accurate?”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c476595aaa36e3658acd7c6b2458a4f3\" tg-width=\"533\" tg-height=\"371\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>For now, the bullish bias remains strong as a barrage of weaker than expected economic data from GDP to manufacturing and employment give hope the Fed may forestall their&nbsp;<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;plans. But, as we will discuss in a moment, we think the bulls may be correct for a different reason.</p>\n<p>However, in the meantime, the&nbsp;<i>“stairstep”</i>&nbsp;advance continues with fundamentally weak companies making substantial gains as speculation displaces investment in the market.&nbsp;<b>Thus, while prices remain elevated, money flows weaken, suggesting the next downturn is roughly one to two weeks away.</b>So far, those corrections remain limited to the 50-dma, which is approximately 3% lower than Friday’s close, but a 10% correction to the 200-dma remains a possibility.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d1ab015b2782edccd8f71c842786623\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">While there seems to be little concern relative to the market’s advance over the last year, maybe that should be the concern given the sharpness of that advance. I will discuss the history of “market melt-ups” and their eventual outcomes in an upcoming article. However, what is essential to notice is the corresponding ramp in valuations as earnings fail<i>t</i>o keep up with bullish expectations.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32446c1ed4942c292051ab6f2646826f\" tg-width=\"836\" tg-height=\"460\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Significantly, investors never realize they are in a&nbsp;</b><b><i>“melt-up”</i></b><b>&nbsp;until after it is over.</b></p>\n<p><u><b>Breadth Remains Weak As Market Advances</b></u></p>\n<p>At the moment, the bullish trend continues, and we must respect that trend for now. However, there are clear signs the advance is beginning to narrow markedly, which has historically served as a warning to investors.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>”&nbsp;As shown in the chart below, although the S&amp;P 500 traded at an all-time high as recently as last week, the cumulative advance/decline (A/D) line for the broader NYSE universe peaked on June 11 this year. The divergence between the two looks similar to early-September last year—the point at which it was mostly the “big 5” stocks within the S&amp;P 500 (the “generals”) that had powered the S&amp;P 500 to its September 2, 2020 high.” – Charles Schwab</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bec2406de602b799eed4c8cda45840c\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"280\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>“The percentage of S&amp;P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages peaked in April, troughed in June, improved until recently, but has come under pressure again. The same can’t be said for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, which both peaked in early February, since which time they’ve generally been descending.”</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80c475204276754086f148219d6f0947\" tg-width=\"688\" tg-height=\"284\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><i>“Relative to their 200-day moving averages (DMA), all three indexes have been generally trending lower since April, as shown in the second chart below.” – Charles Schwab</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e880f82c99840963c1b4fb2f95b915ec\" tg-width=\"713\" tg-height=\"299\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Of course, as we repeat each week, while we are pointing out the warning signs, such does not mean selling everything and going to cash. However, it does serve as a visible warning to adjust your risk exposures accordingly and prepare for a potentially bumpy ride.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“Just because you put on a seatbelt when the plane is landing, doesn’t mean you are going to crash. But is a logic precaution just in case.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>Can The Fed Really Taper?</b></p>\n<p>We have noted the rising number of Fed speakers discussing the need to begin&nbsp;<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;the Fed’s balance sheet purchases in recent weeks. With employment returning well into what is historically considered “full employment,” surge in job openings, and rising inflation, the need to taper is evident. As noted&nbsp;<b><i>in our daily market commentary:</i></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“PCE, met expectations rising 0.4% in July. The level was 0.1% below the June reading.&nbsp;</i>\n <i><b>The year-over-year rate is 4.2%, which is more than double the Fed’s 2% inflation target.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;Importantly&nbsp;</i>\n <i><b>it suggests the Fed should be moving to tighten monetary policy.</b></i>\n <i>However, the trimmed-mean PCE was inline at 2% giving the Fed some&nbsp;“wiggle-room”&nbsp;for now, but likely not for long.</i>“\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f8bb27150d54a104d64668f5f4306208\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"514\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">While the Fed may have some wiggle room short-term, the trimmed-mean PCE will catch up with PCE over the next month.</p>\n<p>The point is that the Fed is now getting pushed into needing to tighten monetary policy to quell inflationary pressures. However, a rising risk suggests they may be&nbsp;<i>“trapped</i>” in continuing their bond purchases and risking both an inflationary surge and creating market instability.</p>\n<p>That risk is the&nbsp;<i>“deficit.”</i></p>\n<p><b>Who Is Going To Fund The Deficit</b></p>\n<p>As discussed recently, the current mandatory spending of the Government consumes more than 100% of existing tax revenues. Therefore, all discretionary spending plus additional programs such as&nbsp;<i>“infrastructure”</i>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<i>“human infrastructure”</i>comes from debt issuance.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f74a7c9f8392d4c3c6d366934b42511\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"688\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As shown, the 2021 budget will push the current deficit towards $4-Trillion requiring the Federal Reserve to monetize at least<b><i>&nbsp;$1 Trillion of that issuance per our previous analysis.</i></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The scale and scope of government spending expansion in the last year are unprecedented. Because Uncle Sam doesn’t have the money, lots of it went on the government’s credit card. The deficit and debt skyrocketed. But this is only the beginning.&nbsp;</i>\n <i><b>The Biden administration recently proposed a $6 trillion budget for fiscal 2022, two-thirds of which would be borrowed.” –</b></i>\n <i>Reason</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i>The CBO&nbsp;(Congressional Budget Office) recently&nbsp;produced its long-term debt projection through 2050, ensuring poor economic returns.&nbsp;I reconstructed a chart from&nbsp;Deutsche Bank&nbsp;showing the US Federal Debt and Federal Reserve balance sheet. The chart uses the CBO projections through 2050.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/771627893f89b51b37543e28698ed961\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>The federal debt load will climb from $28 trillion to roughly $140 trillion at the current growth rate by 2050.</b></p>\n<p>The problem, of course, is that the Fed must continue monetizing 30% of debt issuance to keep interest rates from surging and wrecking the economy.</p>\n<p>Let than sink in for a minute.</p>\n<p>If that is indeed the case, the Fed will not be able to&nbsp;<i>“taper”</i>&nbsp;their balance sheet purchases unless they are willing to risk a surge in interest rates, a collapse in economic growth, and a deflationary spiral.</p>\n<p>As Expected Q3-<b>GDP Gets Slashed</b></p>\n<p>Since the beginning of this year, we have penned several articles stating that economic growth would ultimately disappoint when fueled by an artificial stimulus. Specifically, we noted that&nbsp;<i>“bonds were sending an economic warning.”</i>&nbsp;To wit:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“</i>\n <i><b>As shown, the correlation between rates and the economic composite suggests that current expectations of sustained economic expansion and rising inflation are overly optimistic.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;At current rates, economic growth will likely very quickly rturn to sub-2% growth by 2022.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90ec177d9bfda4dab5c1a89f29d93556\" tg-width=\"853\" tg-height=\"549\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The&nbsp;<i><b>disappointment of economic growth</b></i>&nbsp;is also a function of the surging debt and deficit levels, which, as noted above, will have to be entirely funded by the Federal Reserve.</p>\n<p>On Thursday, both the Atlanta Fed and Morgan Stanley slashed their estimates for Q3 growth as economic data continues to disappoint.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is&nbsp;</i>\n <i><b>3.7</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;</i>\n <i><b>percent</b></i>\n <i>on September 2,&nbsp;</i>\n <i><b>down from 5.3 percent on September 1</b></i>\n <i>.” – Atlanta Fed</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4c362937b721d02c854d792606d0166\" tg-width=\"670\" tg-height=\"366\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Notably, there were significant downward revisions to consumption and investment, declining from 2.6% and 23.4% to 1.9% and 19.3%, respectively. However, as we noted previously, such is not surprising as “stimulus” leaves the system, and the economic drivers return to normalcy.</p>\n<p><b>Morgan and Goldman As Well</b></p>\n<p>As stated, Morgan Stanely also slashed their estimates:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“</i>\n <i><b>We are revising down 3Q GDP tracking to 2.9% from 6.5%, previously</b></i>\n <i>. Our forecast for 4Q GDP remains at 6.7%. The revision to 3Q implies full year 4Q/4Q GDP at 5.6% (5.7%Y) this year – 1.4pp lower than the Fed’s forecast of 7.0% in its June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and 0.7pp below Bloomberg consensus of economists at 6.3%.</i>\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>An examination of the data reveals that the slowdown is not broad-based and primarily reflects payback from stimulus spending as well as continued supply chain bottlenecks.</b></i>\n <i>&nbsp;The swing factor is largest in spending on big-ticket durable goods that benefited most from stimulus checks and are affected most by lack of inventory and price increases due to supply shortages, for example motor vehicles.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75e5c5eb2840814e2972c92ab0ef9bf3\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"487\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">As we discussed previously, these two downgrades were playing catchup to our previous analysis and Goldman’s downgrade two weeks ago. To wit:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>“We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production.</b></i>\n <i>Spending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.”</i>&nbsp;–\n <i>&nbsp;Goldman Sachs</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>Investors should not overlook the importance of these downgrades.</p>\n<p><b>Earnings Estimates At Risk</b></p>\n<p>In our post on<i><b>“Peak Economic And Earnings Growth,</b></i>” we stated that corporate earnings and profits ultimately get derived from economic activity&nbsp;(personal consumption and business investment). Therefore, it is unlikely the currently lofty expectations will get met.</p>\n<p>The problem for investors currently is that analysts’ assumptions are always high, and markets are trading at more extreme valuations, which leaves little room for disappointment. For example, using analyst’s price target assumptions of 4700 for 2020 and current earnings expectations, the S&amp;P is trading 2.6x earnings growth.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3e58e6641c42d1879c094ce45b2f337\" tg-width=\"896\" tg-height=\"647\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Such puts the current P/E at 25.6x earnings in 2020, which is still expensive by historical measures.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4abafc44c03ff687ce87c361a1f1357\" tg-width=\"886\" tg-height=\"637\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">That also puts the S&amp;P 500 grossly above its linear trend line as earnings growth begins to revert.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec0a0666e57f65c24037d219876028e2\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"534\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Through the end of this year, companies will guide down earnings estimates for a variety of reasons:</p>\n<ul>\n <li><p><i>Economic growth won’t be as robust as anticipated.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>Potentially higher corporate tax rates could reduce earnings.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>The increased input costs due to the stimulus can’t get passed on to consumers.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>Higher interest rates increasing borrowing costs which impact earnings.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>A weaker consumer than currently expected due to reduced employment and weaker wages.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>Global demand weakens due to a stronger dollar impacting exports.</i></p></li>\n</ul>\n<p><b>Such will leave investors once again</b><b><i>&nbsp;“overpaying”</i></b><b>&nbsp;for earnings growth that fails to materialize.</b></p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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}\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan The Bulls Defy The Odds Of September Weakness?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-06 20:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/can-bulls-defy-odds-september-weakness><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the bulls defined that weakness posting an almost 3% gain. However, as discussed in our Daily Market ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/can-bulls-defy-odds-september-weakness\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/can-bulls-defy-odds-september-weakness","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136345203","content_text":"While we had previously discussed that August tends to be one of the weaker months of the year, the bulls defined that weakness posting an almost 3% gain. However, as discussed in our Daily Market Commentary on Wednesday:\n\n“August seasonality was a bust with the market advancing 2.6%. Will September seasonality prove to be more accurate?”\n\n\nFor now, the bullish bias remains strong as a barrage of weaker than expected economic data from GDP to manufacturing and employment give hope the Fed may forestall their “tapering” plans. But, as we will discuss in a moment, we think the bulls may be correct for a different reason.\nHowever, in the meantime, the “stairstep” advance continues with fundamentally weak companies making substantial gains as speculation displaces investment in the market. Thus, while prices remain elevated, money flows weaken, suggesting the next downturn is roughly one to two weeks away.So far, those corrections remain limited to the 50-dma, which is approximately 3% lower than Friday’s close, but a 10% correction to the 200-dma remains a possibility.\nWhile there seems to be little concern relative to the market’s advance over the last year, maybe that should be the concern given the sharpness of that advance. I will discuss the history of “market melt-ups” and their eventual outcomes in an upcoming article. However, what is essential to notice is the corresponding ramp in valuations as earnings failto keep up with bullish expectations.\nSignificantly, investors never realize they are in a “melt-up” until after it is over.\nBreadth Remains Weak As Market Advances\nAt the moment, the bullish trend continues, and we must respect that trend for now. However, there are clear signs the advance is beginning to narrow markedly, which has historically served as a warning to investors.\n\n” As shown in the chart below, although the S&P 500 traded at an all-time high as recently as last week, the cumulative advance/decline (A/D) line for the broader NYSE universe peaked on June 11 this year. The divergence between the two looks similar to early-September last year—the point at which it was mostly the “big 5” stocks within the S&P 500 (the “generals”) that had powered the S&P 500 to its September 2, 2020 high.” – Charles Schwab\n\n“The percentage of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages peaked in April, troughed in June, improved until recently, but has come under pressure again. The same can’t be said for the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, which both peaked in early February, since which time they’ve generally been descending.”\n“Relative to their 200-day moving averages (DMA), all three indexes have been generally trending lower since April, as shown in the second chart below.” – Charles Schwab\nOf course, as we repeat each week, while we are pointing out the warning signs, such does not mean selling everything and going to cash. However, it does serve as a visible warning to adjust your risk exposures accordingly and prepare for a potentially bumpy ride.\n\n“Just because you put on a seatbelt when the plane is landing, doesn’t mean you are going to crash. But is a logic precaution just in case.”\n\nCan The Fed Really Taper?\nWe have noted the rising number of Fed speakers discussing the need to begin “tapering” the Fed’s balance sheet purchases in recent weeks. With employment returning well into what is historically considered “full employment,” surge in job openings, and rising inflation, the need to taper is evident. As noted in our daily market commentary:\n\n“PCE, met expectations rising 0.4% in July. The level was 0.1% below the June reading. \nThe year-over-year rate is 4.2%, which is more than double the Fed’s 2% inflation target.\n Importantly \nit suggests the Fed should be moving to tighten monetary policy.\nHowever, the trimmed-mean PCE was inline at 2% giving the Fed some “wiggle-room” for now, but likely not for long.“\n\nWhile the Fed may have some wiggle room short-term, the trimmed-mean PCE will catch up with PCE over the next month.\nThe point is that the Fed is now getting pushed into needing to tighten monetary policy to quell inflationary pressures. However, a rising risk suggests they may be “trapped” in continuing their bond purchases and risking both an inflationary surge and creating market instability.\nThat risk is the “deficit.”\nWho Is Going To Fund The Deficit\nAs discussed recently, the current mandatory spending of the Government consumes more than 100% of existing tax revenues. Therefore, all discretionary spending plus additional programs such as “infrastructure” and “human infrastructure”comes from debt issuance.\nAs shown, the 2021 budget will push the current deficit towards $4-Trillion requiring the Federal Reserve to monetize at least $1 Trillion of that issuance per our previous analysis.\n\nThe scale and scope of government spending expansion in the last year are unprecedented. Because Uncle Sam doesn’t have the money, lots of it went on the government’s credit card. The deficit and debt skyrocketed. But this is only the beginning. \nThe Biden administration recently proposed a $6 trillion budget for fiscal 2022, two-thirds of which would be borrowed.” –\nReason\n\n\nThe CBO (Congressional Budget Office) recently produced its long-term debt projection through 2050, ensuring poor economic returns. I reconstructed a chart from Deutsche Bank showing the US Federal Debt and Federal Reserve balance sheet. The chart uses the CBO projections through 2050.\n\nThe federal debt load will climb from $28 trillion to roughly $140 trillion at the current growth rate by 2050.\nThe problem, of course, is that the Fed must continue monetizing 30% of debt issuance to keep interest rates from surging and wrecking the economy.\nLet than sink in for a minute.\nIf that is indeed the case, the Fed will not be able to “taper” their balance sheet purchases unless they are willing to risk a surge in interest rates, a collapse in economic growth, and a deflationary spiral.\nAs Expected Q3-GDP Gets Slashed\nSince the beginning of this year, we have penned several articles stating that economic growth would ultimately disappoint when fueled by an artificial stimulus. Specifically, we noted that “bonds were sending an economic warning.” To wit:\n\n“\nAs shown, the correlation between rates and the economic composite suggests that current expectations of sustained economic expansion and rising inflation are overly optimistic.\n At current rates, economic growth will likely very quickly rturn to sub-2% growth by 2022.”\n\nThe disappointment of economic growth is also a function of the surging debt and deficit levels, which, as noted above, will have to be entirely funded by the Federal Reserve.\nOn Thursday, both the Atlanta Fed and Morgan Stanley slashed their estimates for Q3 growth as economic data continues to disappoint.\n\n“The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2021 is \n3.7\n \npercent\non September 2, \ndown from 5.3 percent on September 1\n.” – Atlanta Fed\n\nNotably, there were significant downward revisions to consumption and investment, declining from 2.6% and 23.4% to 1.9% and 19.3%, respectively. However, as we noted previously, such is not surprising as “stimulus” leaves the system, and the economic drivers return to normalcy.\nMorgan and Goldman As Well\nAs stated, Morgan Stanely also slashed their estimates:\n\n“\nWe are revising down 3Q GDP tracking to 2.9% from 6.5%, previously\n. Our forecast for 4Q GDP remains at 6.7%. The revision to 3Q implies full year 4Q/4Q GDP at 5.6% (5.7%Y) this year – 1.4pp lower than the Fed’s forecast of 7.0% in its June Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), and 0.7pp below Bloomberg consensus of economists at 6.3%.\n\n\nAn examination of the data reveals that the slowdown is not broad-based and primarily reflects payback from stimulus spending as well as continued supply chain bottlenecks.\n The swing factor is largest in spending on big-ticket durable goods that benefited most from stimulus checks and are affected most by lack of inventory and price increases due to supply shortages, for example motor vehicles.”\n\nAs we discussed previously, these two downgrades were playing catchup to our previous analysis and Goldman’s downgrade two weeks ago. To wit:\n\n“We have lowered our Q3 GDP forecast to +5.5%, reflecting hits to both consumer spending and production.\nSpending on dining, travel, and some other services is likely to decline in August, though we expect the drop to be modest and brief. Production is still suffering from supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto industry, and this is likely to mean less inventory rebuild in Q3.” –\n  Goldman Sachs\n\nInvestors should not overlook the importance of these downgrades.\nEarnings Estimates At Risk\nIn our post on“Peak Economic And Earnings Growth,” we stated that corporate earnings and profits ultimately get derived from economic activity (personal consumption and business investment). Therefore, it is unlikely the currently lofty expectations will get met.\nThe problem for investors currently is that analysts’ assumptions are always high, and markets are trading at more extreme valuations, which leaves little room for disappointment. For example, using analyst’s price target assumptions of 4700 for 2020 and current earnings expectations, the S&P is trading 2.6x earnings growth.\nSuch puts the current P/E at 25.6x earnings in 2020, which is still expensive by historical measures.\nThat also puts the S&P 500 grossly above its linear trend line as earnings growth begins to revert.\nThrough the end of this year, companies will guide down earnings estimates for a variety of reasons:\n\nEconomic growth won’t be as robust as anticipated.\nPotentially higher corporate tax rates could reduce earnings.\nThe increased input costs due to the stimulus can’t get passed on to consumers.\nHigher interest rates increasing borrowing costs which impact earnings.\nA weaker consumer than currently expected due to reduced employment and weaker wages.\nGlobal demand weakens due to a stronger dollar impacting exports.\n\nSuch will leave investors once again “overpaying” for earnings growth that fails to 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news!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837366125","repostId":"2162087564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837361575,"gmtCreate":1629857768997,"gmtModify":1633681895495,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>to the mo0o0o0o0on","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>to the mo0o0o0o0on","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$to the mo0o0o0o0on","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6a6a947019364131765821cd582c680","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837361575","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837363534,"gmtCreate":1629857702628,"gmtModify":1633681896348,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice nice picture&nbsp;","listText":"Nice nice picture&nbsp;","text":"Nice nice picture","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dc4ec33c440f25383f32ec7e9d3e9b4","width":"720","height":"1535"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837363534","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":76,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834476286,"gmtCreate":1629824392245,"gmtModify":1633682172700,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice nice nice","listText":"Nice nice nice","text":"Nice nice nice","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e75fc9307aafb086a8155a408a6e4a59","width":"720","height":"1477"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834476286","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831004442,"gmtCreate":1629270243586,"gmtModify":1633686074956,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gotta be prepared&nbsp;","listText":"Gotta be prepared&nbsp;","text":"Gotta be prepared","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831004442","repostId":"1119160710","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119160710","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629269542,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119160710?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 14:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119160710","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To w","content":"<p>In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of&nbsp;<b><i>6-positive market months</i></b>&nbsp;in a row. To wit:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&amp;P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months.&nbsp;</i> \n <i><b>As shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.</b></i> \n <i>“</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acbb168618e329e81890ddb60b0ac278\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)</i></p>\n<p>As stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.</p>\n<p><b>6-Positive Market Months – Long Term</b></p>\n<p>Using Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d632f054d0a5668489fe697ab20924\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are several important takeaways from the chart above.</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>All periods of consecutive performance eventually end.</b><i>(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)</i></li>\n <li><i>Given the extremely long-period of market history,&nbsp;</i><i><b>such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.</b></i></li>\n <li><i>Such periods of performance often, but not always,&nbsp;</i><i><b>precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.</b></i></li>\n</ol>\n<p>The table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30818e20d84915a59e21dcb051181793\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.</p>\n<p><b>Since 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.</b>In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.</p>\n<p>However, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.</p>\n<p><b><u>This Time Is Different</u></b></p>\n<p>At the current time, there is no concern about&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;in the financial markets as the&nbsp;<i>“bullish bias”</i>&nbsp;remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of&nbsp;<i>“the beatings will continue until morale improves.”</i></p>\n<p>It is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?</p>\n<p><b>What will cause the correction is unknown?</b>The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants&nbsp;<i>“price”</i>that&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;gets reduced.</p>\n<p>Such is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete&nbsp;<i>“shutdown”</i>&nbsp;of the economy.</p>\n<p>So, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.</p>\n<p><u><b>Size Of The Correction</b></u></p>\n<p><b>The magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.</b></p>\n<p>Currently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef44d95d728249aa5724bf499da25ec3\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As we showed in&nbsp;<i><b>“Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”</b></i></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>There have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.</p>\n<p>Importantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during&nbsp;<i>“mean-reverting”</i>&nbsp;bear markets.&nbsp;<b>Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ad29e35e9c52c09e6214c012a264a1\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current&nbsp;<i>“bullish sentiment.”</i>&nbsp;However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.</p>\n<p>Given the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.</p>\n<p><b><u>Into The Belly Of The Beast</u></b></p>\n<p>The market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.</p>\n<p>Interest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.</p>\n<p>August and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ceb1f048ad067fd6355ec65f90b970\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.</b>With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to<i>“spook”</i>&nbsp;markets.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42db5f35b7be8f0da998b203791bee\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The point is simply that the&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;of a correction is now elevated.</p>\n<p><u><b>What This Means And Doesn’t Mean</b></u></p>\n<p>Let me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>As always, long-term portfolio management is about managing&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;by&nbsp;<i>“tweaking”</i>&nbsp;things over time.</p>\n<p>If you have a&nbsp;<i>“so so”</i>&nbsp;hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.</p>\n<p>It doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.</p>\n<p><b>What this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.</b></p>\n<ol>\n <li><p><b><i>Trim Winning Positions</i></b><i>&nbsp;back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)</i></p></li>\n <li><p><b><i>Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.</i></b><i>If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><b><i>Move Trailing Stop Losses Up</i></b><i>&nbsp;to new levels.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><b><i>Review Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance.</i></b><i>&nbsp;If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.</i></p></li>\n</ol>\n<p><b>Could I be wrong?</b>&nbsp;Absolutely.</p>\n<p>But what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?</p>\n<p>What’s worse:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><p><i>Missing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>Spending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.</i></p></li>\n</ol>\n<p>As I noted recently in our blog on<b><i>&nbsp;trading rules:</i></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“</i> \n <b><i>Opportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”</i></b> \n <b>&nbsp;–</b> \n <i>Todd Harrison</i>\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-18 14:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To wit:\n\n“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months. \nAs ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119160710","content_text":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To wit:\n\n“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months. \nAs shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.\n“\n\n(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)\nAs stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.\n6-Positive Market Months – Long Term\nUsing Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.\nThere are several important takeaways from the chart above.\n\nAll periods of consecutive performance eventually end.(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)\nGiven the extremely long-period of market history, such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.\nSuch periods of performance often, but not always, precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.\n\nThe table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.\nWhat the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.\nSince 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.\nHowever, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.\nThis Time Is Different\nAt the current time, there is no concern about “risk” in the financial markets as the “bullish bias” remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of “the beatings will continue until morale improves.”\nIt is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?\nWhat will cause the correction is unknown?The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants “price”that “risk” into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as “risk” gets reduced.\nSuch is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete “shutdown” of the economy.\nSo, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.\nSize Of The Correction\nThe magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.\nCurrently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.\nAs we showed in “Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”\n\n“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”\n\nThere have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.\nImportantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during “mean-reverting” bear markets. Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.\nCurrently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current “bullish sentiment.” However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.\nGiven the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.\nInto The Belly Of The Beast\nThe market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.\nInterest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.\nAugust and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.\nThe first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing“tapering” asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to“spook” markets.\nThe point is simply that the “risk” of a correction is now elevated.\nWhat This Means And Doesn’t Mean\nLet me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.\n\n“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”\n\nAs always, long-term portfolio management is about managing “risk” by “tweaking” things over time.\nIf you have a “so so” hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.\nIt doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.\nWhat this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.\n\nTrim Winning Positions back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)\nSell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.\nMove Trailing Stop Losses Up to new levels.\nReview Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance. If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.\n\nCould I be wrong? Absolutely.\nBut what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?\nWhat’s worse:\n\nMissing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;\nSpending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.\n\nAs I noted recently in our blog on trading rules:\n\n“\nOpportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”\n –\nTodd Harrison","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831004907,"gmtCreate":1629270202109,"gmtModify":1633686075505,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buying the dip","listText":"Buying the dip","text":"Buying the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831004907","repostId":"1146130472","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831005697,"gmtCreate":1629270162819,"gmtModify":1633686075830,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831005697","repostId":"1114320591","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114320591","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629255336,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114320591?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks I'm Never Selling","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114320591","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The best investors in the world swear by holding high-quality companies for decades on end. These stocks fit that bill.","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Time plus patience adds up to wealth-building results in the stock market.</li>\n <li>These three business titans are leaders in their fields.</li>\n <li>They are also built to last for a very long time.</li>\n</ul>\n<p></p>\n<p>I'm about to show you my favorite stocks. Sometimes I invest with an eye to strong returns over the next few years. These are the ones that I expect to keep beating the market for the years and decades to come. It will take a lot to pry them out of my portfolio.</p>\n<p>Let me show you why I intend to hold&nbsp;<b>Netflix</b>(NASDAQ:NFLX),<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and&nbsp;<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)for the long haul. These stocks may not be slam-dunk forever holdings for every investor, but you should absolutely take a close look at these top-notch investments.</p>\n<p><b>1. Netflix</b></p>\n<p>First, you knew Netflix as the sender of red mail-order DVD rentals. The company introduced digital video streams as a free add-on for DVD customers in&nbsp;2007, then separated the streaming business into a separate subscription service in 2011. The Qwikster event was a big marketing mess and could certainly have been handled better, but it was absolutely the right idea in the long run.</p>\n<p>Going all-in on the all-digital streaming service allowed Netflix to roll out its paid subscription plans on a global scale, supplemented by an ambitious focus on original content. The subscriber count has skyrocketed from 26 million in the summer of 2011 to 209 million today. That fantastic trend has worked wonders for the company's top and bottom lines:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646be4c2a73d68810e962c19efe82476\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>NFLX REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p>\n<p>Netflix saw an opportunity to lead the charge into a brand-new market, with low infrastructure costs compared to the DVD-mailing business and buckets of worldwide growth potential. So the DVD business that had come to dominate the video rental sector in America was unceremoniously tossed aside in favor of better ideas.</p>\n<p>These days, Netflix is an award-winning content producer with an unmatched distribution network in every market that matters (except forChina, where the company must operate through local partnerships). The stock has delivered a 2,240% return since the Qwikster event, which works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.8%.</p>\n<p><b>2. Alphabet</b></p>\n<p>Alphabet is the parent company of online services giant Google. What started as a student project at Stanford quickly evolved into the world's leading online search tool. Paired with the moneymaking muscle of Google's digital advertising tools, the company generated strong cash flows early on. The cash profits were reinvested in more business ideas. Google eventually built or bought services with matchless market shares in important sectors such as web browsers, online video, email, and smartphone software.</p>\n<p>By 2015, co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page had concluded that Google's meat-and-potatoes search and advertising businesses eventually had to fade away, overtaken by mobile alternatives and other innovations. So the company made some big changes. Google hired CFO Ruth Porat, a banking executive with decades of experience in large-scale corporate finance. Later the same year, the company changed its name to Alphabet and reorganized itself into a loose conglomerate of different operations.</p>\n<p>Google is still the backbone of Alphabet, accounting for 99.6% of the holding company's total sales in 2020. The non-Google operations are still losing money on a regular basis, despite some progress in the fields of self-driving vehicles and fiber-optic internet connections. At the same time, the company is preparing for an uncertain future by developing a plethora of online and offline business projects with massive long-term growth prospects and equally large development risks.</p>\n<p>If the self-driving cars don't work out in the long run, Alphabet might find a cash machine in medical research or novel wind energy generators. We may never even have heard of the next big winner in Alphabet's sprawling portfolio. If and when Alphabet starts to make serious money from artificial intelligence tools or cancer drugs, most consumers probably won't think of that stuff as a Google business at all.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb97b6814df65240bd8f0b4a0690e77e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>GOOGL REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p>\n<p>Alphabet continues to ride its Google heritage as far as it will go, but there is no shortage of completely unrelated operations that can take over when the browser-based search and advertising business starts to falter. Until then, the traditional search business is booming and Alphabet has rewarded investors with a 912% return in 10 years. That's an annual growth rate of 23.3%.</p>\n<p><b>3. Walt Disney</b></p>\n<p>And then there's the near-centennial entertainment giant. The House of Mouse was founded in 1923 by two cartoon-making brothers with a vision. The company has survived a world war, several terrible recessions, 10 decades of progress in distribution and production technologies, and much more.</p>\n<p>The leisure and entertainment conglomerate you see today is a far cry from the original business, which was a pure-play cartoon production studio. Disney World and Disneyland are cultural touchstones. The company is a leading provider of hotel and resort services, including a cruise line. I can't think of another company that has mastered the art of monetizing its intellectual property as effectively as Disney has. And that intellectual property -- characters, fictional worlds, and storylines that most Americans know by heart -- will always be the lifeblood of Disney's business.</p>\n<p>Times are tough right now, as the coronavirus pandemic closed down movie theaters, theme parks, resorts, and cruise ships around the world. So Disney took a good, hard look at the drastic changes in the entertainment industry and decided to put its full weight behind media-streaming platforms.</p>\n<p>The company has been reorganized from the top down to support Disney's streaming platforms. The Disney+, Hulu, Hotstar, and ESPN+ streaming services are poised to challenge Netflix for the global media-streaming market, adding up to 174 million subscribers in the third quarter of 2021. Disney took on some extra debt in the darkest days of the health crisis and will most likely use some of that spare cash to accelerate its streaming operations.</p>\n<p>The coronavirus caught Disney unprepared, but management didn't hesitate to turn on a dime. The whole behemoth is heading in a different direction now, supported by the same treasure trove of storytelling assets that took the company this far. This supremely well-managed company is also beating the market in the long run, with a 439% 10-year gain that works out to a CAGR of 13%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110cd288830d0e354767349fe36259e6\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p>\n<p><b>The common denominator</b></p>\n<p>These three companies are very different, but they still have one all-important quality in common. I'm looking for flexibility in the face of good times and bad. If your company stands ready to make drastic changes to its operating plan when the business environment around it changes, you know you have an organization that will stand the test of time.</p>\n<p>Lots of&nbsp;time in the market equals wealth-building returns. That's the main lesson you can learn from the writings of Benjamin Graham and the stellar results of his star student, Warren Buffett. Building life-changing wealth does not require a couple of years of fantastic returns. All you need is generally solid gains for several decades.</p>\n<p>For example, an annual return of 10% -- in line with&nbsp;the long-term market average-- adds up to a 673% profit over 20 years. Beating the Street by a small margin makes a big difference on this long time scale. Boost your average gains to just 11%, and you'll see 806% returns over those 20 years. Larger increases bring even greater total long-haul returns. The three stocks discussed above are set up to do better than that, and their very survival in the long run is just about guaranteed by that willingness to change when market conditions require it.</p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks I'm Never Selling</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks I'm Never Selling\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-18 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/17/3-stocks-im-never-selling/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Key Points\n\nTime plus patience adds up to wealth-building results in the stock market.\nThese three business titans are leaders in their fields.\nThey are also built to last for a very long time.\n\n\nI'm ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/17/3-stocks-im-never-selling/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞","GOOG":"谷歌","DIS":"迪士尼","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/17/3-stocks-im-never-selling/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114320591","content_text":"Key Points\n\nTime plus patience adds up to wealth-building results in the stock market.\nThese three business titans are leaders in their fields.\nThey are also built to last for a very long time.\n\n\nI'm about to show you my favorite stocks. Sometimes I invest with an eye to strong returns over the next few years. These are the ones that I expect to keep beating the market for the years and decades to come. It will take a lot to pry them out of my portfolio.\nLet me show you why I intend to hold Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX),Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Walt Disney(NYSE:DIS)for the long haul. These stocks may not be slam-dunk forever holdings for every investor, but you should absolutely take a close look at these top-notch investments.\n1. Netflix\nFirst, you knew Netflix as the sender of red mail-order DVD rentals. The company introduced digital video streams as a free add-on for DVD customers in 2007, then separated the streaming business into a separate subscription service in 2011. The Qwikster event was a big marketing mess and could certainly have been handled better, but it was absolutely the right idea in the long run.\nGoing all-in on the all-digital streaming service allowed Netflix to roll out its paid subscription plans on a global scale, supplemented by an ambitious focus on original content. The subscriber count has skyrocketed from 26 million in the summer of 2011 to 209 million today. That fantastic trend has worked wonders for the company's top and bottom lines:\nNFLX REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.\nNetflix saw an opportunity to lead the charge into a brand-new market, with low infrastructure costs compared to the DVD-mailing business and buckets of worldwide growth potential. So the DVD business that had come to dominate the video rental sector in America was unceremoniously tossed aside in favor of better ideas.\nThese days, Netflix is an award-winning content producer with an unmatched distribution network in every market that matters (except forChina, where the company must operate through local partnerships). The stock has delivered a 2,240% return since the Qwikster event, which works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.8%.\n2. Alphabet\nAlphabet is the parent company of online services giant Google. What started as a student project at Stanford quickly evolved into the world's leading online search tool. Paired with the moneymaking muscle of Google's digital advertising tools, the company generated strong cash flows early on. The cash profits were reinvested in more business ideas. Google eventually built or bought services with matchless market shares in important sectors such as web browsers, online video, email, and smartphone software.\nBy 2015, co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page had concluded that Google's meat-and-potatoes search and advertising businesses eventually had to fade away, overtaken by mobile alternatives and other innovations. So the company made some big changes. Google hired CFO Ruth Porat, a banking executive with decades of experience in large-scale corporate finance. Later the same year, the company changed its name to Alphabet and reorganized itself into a loose conglomerate of different operations.\nGoogle is still the backbone of Alphabet, accounting for 99.6% of the holding company's total sales in 2020. The non-Google operations are still losing money on a regular basis, despite some progress in the fields of self-driving vehicles and fiber-optic internet connections. At the same time, the company is preparing for an uncertain future by developing a plethora of online and offline business projects with massive long-term growth prospects and equally large development risks.\nIf the self-driving cars don't work out in the long run, Alphabet might find a cash machine in medical research or novel wind energy generators. We may never even have heard of the next big winner in Alphabet's sprawling portfolio. If and when Alphabet starts to make serious money from artificial intelligence tools or cancer drugs, most consumers probably won't think of that stuff as a Google business at all.\nGOOGL REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.\nAlphabet continues to ride its Google heritage as far as it will go, but there is no shortage of completely unrelated operations that can take over when the browser-based search and advertising business starts to falter. Until then, the traditional search business is booming and Alphabet has rewarded investors with a 912% return in 10 years. That's an annual growth rate of 23.3%.\n3. Walt Disney\nAnd then there's the near-centennial entertainment giant. The House of Mouse was founded in 1923 by two cartoon-making brothers with a vision. The company has survived a world war, several terrible recessions, 10 decades of progress in distribution and production technologies, and much more.\nThe leisure and entertainment conglomerate you see today is a far cry from the original business, which was a pure-play cartoon production studio. Disney World and Disneyland are cultural touchstones. The company is a leading provider of hotel and resort services, including a cruise line. I can't think of another company that has mastered the art of monetizing its intellectual property as effectively as Disney has. And that intellectual property -- characters, fictional worlds, and storylines that most Americans know by heart -- will always be the lifeblood of Disney's business.\nTimes are tough right now, as the coronavirus pandemic closed down movie theaters, theme parks, resorts, and cruise ships around the world. So Disney took a good, hard look at the drastic changes in the entertainment industry and decided to put its full weight behind media-streaming platforms.\nThe company has been reorganized from the top down to support Disney's streaming platforms. The Disney+, Hulu, Hotstar, and ESPN+ streaming services are poised to challenge Netflix for the global media-streaming market, adding up to 174 million subscribers in the third quarter of 2021. Disney took on some extra debt in the darkest days of the health crisis and will most likely use some of that spare cash to accelerate its streaming operations.\nThe coronavirus caught Disney unprepared, but management didn't hesitate to turn on a dime. The whole behemoth is heading in a different direction now, supported by the same treasure trove of storytelling assets that took the company this far. This supremely well-managed company is also beating the market in the long run, with a 439% 10-year gain that works out to a CAGR of 13%.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nThe common denominator\nThese three companies are very different, but they still have one all-important quality in common. I'm looking for flexibility in the face of good times and bad. If your company stands ready to make drastic changes to its operating plan when the business environment around it changes, you know you have an organization that will stand the test of time.\nLots of time in the market equals wealth-building returns. That's the main lesson you can learn from the writings of Benjamin Graham and the stellar results of his star student, Warren Buffett. Building life-changing wealth does not require a couple of years of fantastic returns. All you need is generally solid gains for several decades.\nFor example, an annual return of 10% -- in line with the long-term market average-- adds up to a 673% profit over 20 years. Beating the Street by a small margin makes a big difference on this long time scale. Boost your average gains to just 11%, and you'll see 806% returns over those 20 years. Larger increases bring even greater total long-haul returns. The three stocks discussed above are set up to do better than that, and their very survival in the long run is just about guaranteed by that willingness to change when market conditions require it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":831002805,"gmtCreate":1629270094007,"gmtModify":1633686076377,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice&nbsp;","listText":"Nice&nbsp;","text":"Nice","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2160fbce2a3ec19aa03330da22476c40","width":"720","height":"1535"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831002805","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":236,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":819638755,"gmtCreate":1630062973977,"gmtModify":1704955369271,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>time to sell soon","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>time to sell soon","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$time to sell soon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46a95161b893d9a77723dbe72df909ba","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":921,"commentSize":180,"repostSize":20,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819638755","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":14987,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831005697,"gmtCreate":1629270162819,"gmtModify":1633686075830,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[得意]&nbsp;","listText":"[得意]&nbsp;","text":"[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831005697","repostId":"1114320591","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114320591","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629255336,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1114320591?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 10:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Stocks I'm Never Selling","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114320591","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The best investors in the world swear by holding high-quality companies for decades on end. These stocks fit that bill.","content":"<p><b>Key Points</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Time plus patience adds up to wealth-building results in the stock market.</li>\n <li>These three business titans are leaders in their fields.</li>\n <li>They are also built to last for a very long time.</li>\n</ul>\n<p></p>\n<p>I'm about to show you my favorite stocks. Sometimes I invest with an eye to strong returns over the next few years. These are the ones that I expect to keep beating the market for the years and decades to come. It will take a lot to pry them out of my portfolio.</p>\n<p>Let me show you why I intend to hold&nbsp;<b>Netflix</b>(NASDAQ:NFLX),<b>Alphabet</b>(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and&nbsp;<b>Walt Disney</b>(NYSE:DIS)for the long haul. These stocks may not be slam-dunk forever holdings for every investor, but you should absolutely take a close look at these top-notch investments.</p>\n<p><b>1. Netflix</b></p>\n<p>First, you knew Netflix as the sender of red mail-order DVD rentals. The company introduced digital video streams as a free add-on for DVD customers in&nbsp;2007, then separated the streaming business into a separate subscription service in 2011. The Qwikster event was a big marketing mess and could certainly have been handled better, but it was absolutely the right idea in the long run.</p>\n<p>Going all-in on the all-digital streaming service allowed Netflix to roll out its paid subscription plans on a global scale, supplemented by an ambitious focus on original content. The subscriber count has skyrocketed from 26 million in the summer of 2011 to 209 million today. That fantastic trend has worked wonders for the company's top and bottom lines:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646be4c2a73d68810e962c19efe82476\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>NFLX REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p>\n<p>Netflix saw an opportunity to lead the charge into a brand-new market, with low infrastructure costs compared to the DVD-mailing business and buckets of worldwide growth potential. So the DVD business that had come to dominate the video rental sector in America was unceremoniously tossed aside in favor of better ideas.</p>\n<p>These days, Netflix is an award-winning content producer with an unmatched distribution network in every market that matters (except forChina, where the company must operate through local partnerships). The stock has delivered a 2,240% return since the Qwikster event, which works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.8%.</p>\n<p><b>2. Alphabet</b></p>\n<p>Alphabet is the parent company of online services giant Google. What started as a student project at Stanford quickly evolved into the world's leading online search tool. Paired with the moneymaking muscle of Google's digital advertising tools, the company generated strong cash flows early on. The cash profits were reinvested in more business ideas. Google eventually built or bought services with matchless market shares in important sectors such as web browsers, online video, email, and smartphone software.</p>\n<p>By 2015, co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page had concluded that Google's meat-and-potatoes search and advertising businesses eventually had to fade away, overtaken by mobile alternatives and other innovations. So the company made some big changes. Google hired CFO Ruth Porat, a banking executive with decades of experience in large-scale corporate finance. Later the same year, the company changed its name to Alphabet and reorganized itself into a loose conglomerate of different operations.</p>\n<p>Google is still the backbone of Alphabet, accounting for 99.6% of the holding company's total sales in 2020. The non-Google operations are still losing money on a regular basis, despite some progress in the fields of self-driving vehicles and fiber-optic internet connections. At the same time, the company is preparing for an uncertain future by developing a plethora of online and offline business projects with massive long-term growth prospects and equally large development risks.</p>\n<p>If the self-driving cars don't work out in the long run, Alphabet might find a cash machine in medical research or novel wind energy generators. We may never even have heard of the next big winner in Alphabet's sprawling portfolio. If and when Alphabet starts to make serious money from artificial intelligence tools or cancer drugs, most consumers probably won't think of that stuff as a Google business at all.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb97b6814df65240bd8f0b4a0690e77e\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"449\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>GOOGL REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.</span></p>\n<p>Alphabet continues to ride its Google heritage as far as it will go, but there is no shortage of completely unrelated operations that can take over when the browser-based search and advertising business starts to falter. Until then, the traditional search business is booming and Alphabet has rewarded investors with a 912% return in 10 years. That's an annual growth rate of 23.3%.</p>\n<p><b>3. Walt Disney</b></p>\n<p>And then there's the near-centennial entertainment giant. The House of Mouse was founded in 1923 by two cartoon-making brothers with a vision. The company has survived a world war, several terrible recessions, 10 decades of progress in distribution and production technologies, and much more.</p>\n<p>The leisure and entertainment conglomerate you see today is a far cry from the original business, which was a pure-play cartoon production studio. Disney World and Disneyland are cultural touchstones. The company is a leading provider of hotel and resort services, including a cruise line. I can't think of another company that has mastered the art of monetizing its intellectual property as effectively as Disney has. And that intellectual property -- characters, fictional worlds, and storylines that most Americans know by heart -- will always be the lifeblood of Disney's business.</p>\n<p>Times are tough right now, as the coronavirus pandemic closed down movie theaters, theme parks, resorts, and cruise ships around the world. So Disney took a good, hard look at the drastic changes in the entertainment industry and decided to put its full weight behind media-streaming platforms.</p>\n<p>The company has been reorganized from the top down to support Disney's streaming platforms. The Disney+, Hulu, Hotstar, and ESPN+ streaming services are poised to challenge Netflix for the global media-streaming market, adding up to 174 million subscribers in the third quarter of 2021. Disney took on some extra debt in the darkest days of the health crisis and will most likely use some of that spare cash to accelerate its streaming operations.</p>\n<p>The coronavirus caught Disney unprepared, but management didn't hesitate to turn on a dime. The whole behemoth is heading in a different direction now, supported by the same treasure trove of storytelling assets that took the company this far. This supremely well-managed company is also beating the market in the long run, with a 439% 10-year gain that works out to a CAGR of 13%.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/110cd288830d0e354767349fe36259e6\" tg-width=\"2000\" tg-height=\"1333\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</span></p>\n<p><b>The common denominator</b></p>\n<p>These three companies are very different, but they still have one all-important quality in common. I'm looking for flexibility in the face of good times and bad. If your company stands ready to make drastic changes to its operating plan when the business environment around it changes, you know you have an organization that will stand the test of time.</p>\n<p>Lots of&nbsp;time in the market equals wealth-building returns. That's the main lesson you can learn from the writings of Benjamin Graham and the stellar results of his star student, Warren Buffett. Building life-changing wealth does not require a couple of years of fantastic returns. All you need is generally solid gains for several decades.</p>\n<p>For example, an annual return of 10% -- in line with&nbsp;the long-term market average-- adds up to a 673% profit over 20 years. Beating the Street by a small margin makes a big difference on this long time scale. Boost your average gains to just 11%, and you'll see 806% returns over those 20 years. Larger increases bring even greater total long-haul returns. The three stocks discussed above are set up to do better than that, and their very survival in the long run is just about guaranteed by that willingness to change when market conditions require it.</p>\n<p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Stocks I'm Never Selling</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Stocks I'm Never Selling\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-18 10:55 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/17/3-stocks-im-never-selling/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Key Points\n\nTime plus patience adds up to wealth-building results in the stock market.\nThese three business titans are leaders in their fields.\nThey are also built to last for a very long time.\n\n\nI'm ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/17/3-stocks-im-never-selling/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞","GOOG":"谷歌","DIS":"迪士尼","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/17/3-stocks-im-never-selling/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114320591","content_text":"Key Points\n\nTime plus patience adds up to wealth-building results in the stock market.\nThese three business titans are leaders in their fields.\nThey are also built to last for a very long time.\n\n\nI'm about to show you my favorite stocks. Sometimes I invest with an eye to strong returns over the next few years. These are the ones that I expect to keep beating the market for the years and decades to come. It will take a lot to pry them out of my portfolio.\nLet me show you why I intend to hold Netflix(NASDAQ:NFLX),Alphabet(NASDAQ:GOOG)(NASDAQ:GOOGL), and Walt Disney(NYSE:DIS)for the long haul. These stocks may not be slam-dunk forever holdings for every investor, but you should absolutely take a close look at these top-notch investments.\n1. Netflix\nFirst, you knew Netflix as the sender of red mail-order DVD rentals. The company introduced digital video streams as a free add-on for DVD customers in 2007, then separated the streaming business into a separate subscription service in 2011. The Qwikster event was a big marketing mess and could certainly have been handled better, but it was absolutely the right idea in the long run.\nGoing all-in on the all-digital streaming service allowed Netflix to roll out its paid subscription plans on a global scale, supplemented by an ambitious focus on original content. The subscriber count has skyrocketed from 26 million in the summer of 2011 to 209 million today. That fantastic trend has worked wonders for the company's top and bottom lines:\nNFLX REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.\nNetflix saw an opportunity to lead the charge into a brand-new market, with low infrastructure costs compared to the DVD-mailing business and buckets of worldwide growth potential. So the DVD business that had come to dominate the video rental sector in America was unceremoniously tossed aside in favor of better ideas.\nThese days, Netflix is an award-winning content producer with an unmatched distribution network in every market that matters (except forChina, where the company must operate through local partnerships). The stock has delivered a 2,240% return since the Qwikster event, which works out to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.8%.\n2. Alphabet\nAlphabet is the parent company of online services giant Google. What started as a student project at Stanford quickly evolved into the world's leading online search tool. Paired with the moneymaking muscle of Google's digital advertising tools, the company generated strong cash flows early on. The cash profits were reinvested in more business ideas. Google eventually built or bought services with matchless market shares in important sectors such as web browsers, online video, email, and smartphone software.\nBy 2015, co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page had concluded that Google's meat-and-potatoes search and advertising businesses eventually had to fade away, overtaken by mobile alternatives and other innovations. So the company made some big changes. Google hired CFO Ruth Porat, a banking executive with decades of experience in large-scale corporate finance. Later the same year, the company changed its name to Alphabet and reorganized itself into a loose conglomerate of different operations.\nGoogle is still the backbone of Alphabet, accounting for 99.6% of the holding company's total sales in 2020. The non-Google operations are still losing money on a regular basis, despite some progress in the fields of self-driving vehicles and fiber-optic internet connections. At the same time, the company is preparing for an uncertain future by developing a plethora of online and offline business projects with massive long-term growth prospects and equally large development risks.\nIf the self-driving cars don't work out in the long run, Alphabet might find a cash machine in medical research or novel wind energy generators. We may never even have heard of the next big winner in Alphabet's sprawling portfolio. If and when Alphabet starts to make serious money from artificial intelligence tools or cancer drugs, most consumers probably won't think of that stuff as a Google business at all.\nGOOGL REVENUE (TTM) DATA BY YCHARTS.\nAlphabet continues to ride its Google heritage as far as it will go, but there is no shortage of completely unrelated operations that can take over when the browser-based search and advertising business starts to falter. Until then, the traditional search business is booming and Alphabet has rewarded investors with a 912% return in 10 years. That's an annual growth rate of 23.3%.\n3. Walt Disney\nAnd then there's the near-centennial entertainment giant. The House of Mouse was founded in 1923 by two cartoon-making brothers with a vision. The company has survived a world war, several terrible recessions, 10 decades of progress in distribution and production technologies, and much more.\nThe leisure and entertainment conglomerate you see today is a far cry from the original business, which was a pure-play cartoon production studio. Disney World and Disneyland are cultural touchstones. The company is a leading provider of hotel and resort services, including a cruise line. I can't think of another company that has mastered the art of monetizing its intellectual property as effectively as Disney has. And that intellectual property -- characters, fictional worlds, and storylines that most Americans know by heart -- will always be the lifeblood of Disney's business.\nTimes are tough right now, as the coronavirus pandemic closed down movie theaters, theme parks, resorts, and cruise ships around the world. So Disney took a good, hard look at the drastic changes in the entertainment industry and decided to put its full weight behind media-streaming platforms.\nThe company has been reorganized from the top down to support Disney's streaming platforms. The Disney+, Hulu, Hotstar, and ESPN+ streaming services are poised to challenge Netflix for the global media-streaming market, adding up to 174 million subscribers in the third quarter of 2021. Disney took on some extra debt in the darkest days of the health crisis and will most likely use some of that spare cash to accelerate its streaming operations.\nThe coronavirus caught Disney unprepared, but management didn't hesitate to turn on a dime. The whole behemoth is heading in a different direction now, supported by the same treasure trove of storytelling assets that took the company this far. This supremely well-managed company is also beating the market in the long run, with a 439% 10-year gain that works out to a CAGR of 13%.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nThe common denominator\nThese three companies are very different, but they still have one all-important quality in common. I'm looking for flexibility in the face of good times and bad. If your company stands ready to make drastic changes to its operating plan when the business environment around it changes, you know you have an organization that will stand the test of time.\nLots of time in the market equals wealth-building returns. That's the main lesson you can learn from the writings of Benjamin Graham and the stellar results of his star student, Warren Buffett. Building life-changing wealth does not require a couple of years of fantastic returns. All you need is generally solid gains for several decades.\nFor example, an annual return of 10% -- in line with the long-term market average-- adds up to a 673% profit over 20 years. Beating the Street by a small margin makes a big difference on this long time scale. Boost your average gains to just 11%, and you'll see 806% returns over those 20 years. Larger increases bring even greater total long-haul returns. The three stocks discussed above are set up to do better than that, and their very survival in the long run is just about guaranteed by that willingness to change when market conditions require it.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":837346884,"gmtCreate":1629859532948,"gmtModify":1633681877685,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Based","listText":"Based","text":"Based","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837346884","repostId":"2162087564","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810185812,"gmtCreate":1629952465436,"gmtModify":1633681205430,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>my pp hardddd","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a>my pp hardddd","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$my pp hardddd","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2321bff80c1bf917e26fdfca31bbf3c2","width":"720","height":"1280"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810185812","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896979373,"gmtCreate":1628553729792,"gmtModify":1633746266931,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lube up boys","listText":"Lube up boys","text":"Lube up boys","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896979373","repostId":"1142685473","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":837362559,"gmtCreate":1629857957171,"gmtModify":1633681893182,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Semicon industry looking good&nbsp;","listText":"Semicon industry looking good&nbsp;","text":"Semicon industry looking good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/837362559","repostId":"2162082230","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831004907,"gmtCreate":1629270202109,"gmtModify":1633686075505,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buying the dip","listText":"Buying the dip","text":"Buying the dip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831004907","repostId":"1146130472","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1146130472","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629270081,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146130472?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 15:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SoFi Technologies: Why Now Is The Time To Buy","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146130472","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSoFi’s member growth accelerated in Q2’21.\nThe FinTech reiterated its FY 2021 outlook regar","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>SoFi’s member growth accelerated in Q2’21.</li>\n <li>The FinTech reiterated its FY 2021 outlook regarding revenues and EBITDA.</li>\n <li>With strong growth ahead, shares of SoFi are a buy.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86757d2b7d17b7fe7071210bad77f795\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"800\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>SoFi Technologies (SOFI) is growing its platform at a rapid rate and steadily rolling out new financial service products to improve customer monetization. SoFi posted impressive revenue gains Y/Y and the FinTech is set for continual growth. The stock is a buy!</p>\n<p><b>Why SoFi Technologies is a buy</b></p>\n<p>SoFi is a rapidly growing FinTech company whose customer count has really taken off in the last two years. Members - which is SoFi’s term for its customers - have grown from 759,000 in Q2’19 to $2.56M in Q2’21, which is equal to an annual growth rate of 84%. SoFi’s growth accelerated during the pandemic as more people relied on mobile devices to bank and invest. Although the pandemic effects have started to wear off and people returned to work again in Q2’21, the FinTech continued to see strong Q/Q growth in its customer base. SoFi signed on 279,000 new members in the last quarter, which is an increase of 12% Q/Q. If SoFi continues to grow at this rate, the firm should see at least 3M members by the end of the year.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c33724614ab4fbd569eec237fd2a815a\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"489\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:SoFi)</span></p>\n<p>Besides offering lending and financial services products, SoFi owns a payment processing platform aimed at the enterprise market. The digital payments platform operates under the brand “Galileo” and it has also seen strong continual customer growth. Growth in Galileo accounts moderated slightly in Q2’21, but still grew 119% Y/Y. During the last quarter, Galileo gained 9M new customers and the FinTech had 79M customer on its digital payments platform at the end of the quarter.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38404ade2d4b3fcaee78a14007dd9a3d\" tg-width=\"950\" tg-height=\"482\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: SoFi)</span></p>\n<p>The strength of SoFi's personal finance platform is that it provides a one-stop banking solution for customers that require more than just one product. A customer that needs student loan refinancing may also need a credit card or purchase a mortgage financing solution from SoFi Technologies. Once a customer is signed on to the platform and part of the ecosystem, SoFi can target the member with customized offers.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/034e1b3b74eaed8a52be1cc8f41267c8\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"339\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: SoFi)</span></p>\n<p>SoFi does a good job at that. The firm rolled out more tailored products in Q2’21, with strong growth present in the financial services category. The biggest growth opportunity for the FinTech is financial services and the firm is adding new products to improve uptake and customer monetization. Financial services products grew 243% Y/Y to 2.69M and are the driving source behind SoFi’s revenue growth.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e4c8bf0fdefa78680c4438d445fc765\" tg-width=\"942\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: SoFi)</span></p>\n<p>The second-quarter is generally a strong quarter for SoFi. Revenues for the second-quarter were $237M, showing growth of 74% Y/Y. SoFi’s Q2’21 adjusted EBITDA reached $11M which means the personal finance platform has been profitable for four straight quarters. The FinTech’s total adjusted EBITDA over the last twelve months totaled $61M on revenues of $852M.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f31200106422df0d70c25b82af11ff1\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"517\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: SoFi)</span></p>\n<p><b>Strong liquidity, low debt</b></p>\n<p>As a FinTech company, SoFi’s main assets are the personal finance and payment processing platforms it owns, and the human capital behind it. SoFi carries $2.3B of financial debt and is flush in cash… with $462M directly available for the firm’s digital growth strategy.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b554a55447ea522606eba7f6eebd143c\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"796\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source:SoFi)</span></p>\n<p><b>Buy, buy, buy</b></p>\n<p>SoFi reiterated its outlook for the rest of the year and continues to project $980M in revenues and $27M in adjusted EBITDA for FY 2021. The personal finance platform also expects to see its first positive EBITDA margin this year. The guidance implies 58% Y/Y growth in revenues with strong momentum continuing in member acquisition.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d0dafcf3d0836cabb8799337f8ad0e9\" tg-width=\"935\" tg-height=\"265\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: SoFi)</span></p>\n<p>Although SoFi reiterated its guidance and the earnings card was showing continual growth along key metrics, shares of SoFi slumped 14% last week...</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90ea8e53fe8b4b000a2ea075e7090a76\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The drop creates another buy-the-drop situation for SoFi since the company is just at the very beginning of its growth. If current growth rates prove to be sustainable, SoFi could have 10M members by FY 2025 and revenues of $3.6B. Revenue estimates imply very strong revenue growth for at least the next four years. Based on expected sales of $1.5B in FY 2022, shares of SoFi trade a P-S ratio of 7.6. In June, shares of SoFi traded at a P-S ratio of 11.0.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dae716bad752121fa751f283ba614af\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"186\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Seeking Alpha)</span></p>\n<p><b>Risks with SoFi</b></p>\n<p>FinTech companies can be hard to value because they are growing fast and have small or no profits. Although SoFi is profitable regarding EBITDA, the FinTech continues to post net losses… and it will likely continue to do so for a few more years as it prioritizes member and platform growth.</p>\n<p>Personalized banking is a growth opportunity in the FinTech sector, but not only for SoFi. The pandemic accelerated FinTech adoption and other digital payment companies are making moves to expand their platforms.</p>\n<p>SoFi has no perceptible moat in its platform business which poses a challenge to long term profitability and customer retention. Other banks/FinTechs can easily enter the market and offer similar, better or more differentiated financial services products. Declining member and revenue growth rates are possibly the two most defining risks for SoFi at this point in time, with delayed profitability being only a secondary risk.</p>\n<p><b>Final thoughts</b></p>\n<p>SoFi’s second-quarter was good: Member and revenue figures kept surging and the FinTech continued to roll out new financial services products, the firm’s fastest area of growth. The full year revenue outlook was reiterated, showing that the FinTech is confident in achieving its business goals. The slump after earnings creates another buy-the-drop situation for SoFi as the FinTech gets ready to reach 3M customers by year-end. Buy, buy, buy!</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SoFi Technologies: Why Now Is The Time To Buy</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSoFi Technologies: Why Now Is The Time To Buy\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-18 15:01 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450277-sofi-technologies-q2-2021-earnings-why-now-is-the-time-to-buy><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nSoFi’s member growth accelerated in Q2’21.\nThe FinTech reiterated its FY 2021 outlook regarding revenues and EBITDA.\nWith strong growth ahead, shares of SoFi are a buy.\n\nipopba/iStock via ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450277-sofi-technologies-q2-2021-earnings-why-now-is-the-time-to-buy\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4450277-sofi-technologies-q2-2021-earnings-why-now-is-the-time-to-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146130472","content_text":"Summary\n\nSoFi’s member growth accelerated in Q2’21.\nThe FinTech reiterated its FY 2021 outlook regarding revenues and EBITDA.\nWith strong growth ahead, shares of SoFi are a buy.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nSoFi Technologies (SOFI) is growing its platform at a rapid rate and steadily rolling out new financial service products to improve customer monetization. SoFi posted impressive revenue gains Y/Y and the FinTech is set for continual growth. The stock is a buy!\nWhy SoFi Technologies is a buy\nSoFi is a rapidly growing FinTech company whose customer count has really taken off in the last two years. Members - which is SoFi’s term for its customers - have grown from 759,000 in Q2’19 to $2.56M in Q2’21, which is equal to an annual growth rate of 84%. SoFi’s growth accelerated during the pandemic as more people relied on mobile devices to bank and invest. Although the pandemic effects have started to wear off and people returned to work again in Q2’21, the FinTech continued to see strong Q/Q growth in its customer base. SoFi signed on 279,000 new members in the last quarter, which is an increase of 12% Q/Q. If SoFi continues to grow at this rate, the firm should see at least 3M members by the end of the year.\n(Source:SoFi)\nBesides offering lending and financial services products, SoFi owns a payment processing platform aimed at the enterprise market. The digital payments platform operates under the brand “Galileo” and it has also seen strong continual customer growth. Growth in Galileo accounts moderated slightly in Q2’21, but still grew 119% Y/Y. During the last quarter, Galileo gained 9M new customers and the FinTech had 79M customer on its digital payments platform at the end of the quarter.\n(Source: SoFi)\nThe strength of SoFi's personal finance platform is that it provides a one-stop banking solution for customers that require more than just one product. A customer that needs student loan refinancing may also need a credit card or purchase a mortgage financing solution from SoFi Technologies. Once a customer is signed on to the platform and part of the ecosystem, SoFi can target the member with customized offers.\n(Source: SoFi)\nSoFi does a good job at that. The firm rolled out more tailored products in Q2’21, with strong growth present in the financial services category. The biggest growth opportunity for the FinTech is financial services and the firm is adding new products to improve uptake and customer monetization. Financial services products grew 243% Y/Y to 2.69M and are the driving source behind SoFi’s revenue growth.\n(Source: SoFi)\nThe second-quarter is generally a strong quarter for SoFi. Revenues for the second-quarter were $237M, showing growth of 74% Y/Y. SoFi’s Q2’21 adjusted EBITDA reached $11M which means the personal finance platform has been profitable for four straight quarters. The FinTech’s total adjusted EBITDA over the last twelve months totaled $61M on revenues of $852M.\n(Source: SoFi)\nStrong liquidity, low debt\nAs a FinTech company, SoFi’s main assets are the personal finance and payment processing platforms it owns, and the human capital behind it. SoFi carries $2.3B of financial debt and is flush in cash… with $462M directly available for the firm’s digital growth strategy.\n(Source:SoFi)\nBuy, buy, buy\nSoFi reiterated its outlook for the rest of the year and continues to project $980M in revenues and $27M in adjusted EBITDA for FY 2021. The personal finance platform also expects to see its first positive EBITDA margin this year. The guidance implies 58% Y/Y growth in revenues with strong momentum continuing in member acquisition.\n(Source: SoFi)\nAlthough SoFi reiterated its guidance and the earnings card was showing continual growth along key metrics, shares of SoFi slumped 14% last week...\nData by YCharts\nThe drop creates another buy-the-drop situation for SoFi since the company is just at the very beginning of its growth. If current growth rates prove to be sustainable, SoFi could have 10M members by FY 2025 and revenues of $3.6B. Revenue estimates imply very strong revenue growth for at least the next four years. Based on expected sales of $1.5B in FY 2022, shares of SoFi trade a P-S ratio of 7.6. In June, shares of SoFi traded at a P-S ratio of 11.0.\n(Source: Seeking Alpha)\nRisks with SoFi\nFinTech companies can be hard to value because they are growing fast and have small or no profits. Although SoFi is profitable regarding EBITDA, the FinTech continues to post net losses… and it will likely continue to do so for a few more years as it prioritizes member and platform growth.\nPersonalized banking is a growth opportunity in the FinTech sector, but not only for SoFi. The pandemic accelerated FinTech adoption and other digital payment companies are making moves to expand their platforms.\nSoFi has no perceptible moat in its platform business which poses a challenge to long term profitability and customer retention. Other banks/FinTechs can easily enter the market and offer similar, better or more differentiated financial services products. Declining member and revenue growth rates are possibly the two most defining risks for SoFi at this point in time, with delayed profitability being only a secondary risk.\nFinal thoughts\nSoFi’s second-quarter was good: Member and revenue figures kept surging and the FinTech continued to roll out new financial services products, the firm’s fastest area of growth. The full year revenue outlook was reiterated, showing that the FinTech is confident in achieving its business goals. The slump after earnings creates another buy-the-drop situation for SoFi as the FinTech gets ready to reach 3M customers by year-end. Buy, buy, buy!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810117644,"gmtCreate":1629951886888,"gmtModify":1633681211002,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dolla dolla","listText":"Dolla dolla","text":"Dolla dolla","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810117644","repostId":"1101434650","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831004442,"gmtCreate":1629270243586,"gmtModify":1633686074956,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Gotta be prepared&nbsp;","listText":"Gotta be prepared&nbsp;","text":"Gotta be prepared","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831004442","repostId":"1119160710","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1119160710","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629269542,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119160710?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-18 14:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119160710","media":"zerohedge","summary":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To w","content":"<p>In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of&nbsp;<b><i>6-positive market months</i></b>&nbsp;in a row. To wit:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&amp;P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months.&nbsp;</i> \n <i><b>As shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.</b></i> \n <i>“</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acbb168618e329e81890ddb60b0ac278\" tg-width=\"991\" tg-height=\"521\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><i>(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)</i></p>\n<p>As stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.</p>\n<p><b>6-Positive Market Months – Long Term</b></p>\n<p>Using Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/38d632f054d0a5668489fe697ab20924\" tg-width=\"968\" tg-height=\"589\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">There are several important takeaways from the chart above.</p>\n<ol>\n <li><b>All periods of consecutive performance eventually end.</b><i>(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)</i></li>\n <li><i>Given the extremely long-period of market history,&nbsp;</i><i><b>such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.</b></i></li>\n <li><i>Such periods of performance often, but not always,&nbsp;</i><i><b>precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.</b></i></li>\n</ol>\n<p>The table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30818e20d84915a59e21dcb051181793\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"369\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">What the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.</p>\n<p><b>Since 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.</b>In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.</p>\n<p>However, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.</p>\n<p><b><u>This Time Is Different</u></b></p>\n<p>At the current time, there is no concern about&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;in the financial markets as the&nbsp;<i>“bullish bias”</i>&nbsp;remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of&nbsp;<i>“the beatings will continue until morale improves.”</i></p>\n<p>It is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?</p>\n<p><b>What will cause the correction is unknown?</b>The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants&nbsp;<i>“price”</i>that&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;gets reduced.</p>\n<p>Such is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete&nbsp;<i>“shutdown”</i>&nbsp;of the economy.</p>\n<p>So, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.</p>\n<p><u><b>Size Of The Correction</b></u></p>\n<p><b>The magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.</b></p>\n<p>Currently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ef44d95d728249aa5724bf499da25ec3\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"604\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As we showed in&nbsp;<i><b>“Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”</b></i></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”</i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>There have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.</p>\n<p>Importantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during&nbsp;<i>“mean-reverting”</i>&nbsp;bear markets.&nbsp;<b>Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84ad29e35e9c52c09e6214c012a264a1\" tg-width=\"990\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Currently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current&nbsp;<i>“bullish sentiment.”</i>&nbsp;However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.</p>\n<p>Given the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.</p>\n<p><b><u>Into The Belly Of The Beast</u></b></p>\n<p>The market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.</p>\n<p>Interest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.</p>\n<p>August and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0ceb1f048ad067fd6355ec65f90b970\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>The first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.</b>With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing<i>“tapering”</i>&nbsp;asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to<i>“spook”</i>&nbsp;markets.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac42db5f35b7be8f0da998b203791bee\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"617\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The point is simply that the&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;of a correction is now elevated.</p>\n<p><u><b>What This Means And Doesn’t Mean</b></u></p>\n<p>Let me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.</p>\n<blockquote>\n <i><b>“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”</b></i>\n</blockquote>\n<p>As always, long-term portfolio management is about managing&nbsp;<i>“risk”</i>&nbsp;by&nbsp;<i>“tweaking”</i>&nbsp;things over time.</p>\n<p>If you have a&nbsp;<i>“so so”</i>&nbsp;hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.</p>\n<p>It doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.</p>\n<p><b>What this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.</b></p>\n<ol>\n <li><p><b><i>Trim Winning Positions</i></b><i>&nbsp;back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)</i></p></li>\n <li><p><b><i>Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.</i></b><i>If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><b><i>Move Trailing Stop Losses Up</i></b><i>&nbsp;to new levels.</i></p></li>\n <li><p><b><i>Review Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance.</i></b><i>&nbsp;If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.</i></p></li>\n</ol>\n<p><b>Could I be wrong?</b>&nbsp;Absolutely.</p>\n<p>But what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?</p>\n<p>What’s worse:</p>\n<ol>\n <li><p><i>Missing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;</i></p></li>\n <li><p><i>Spending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.</i></p></li>\n</ol>\n<p>As I noted recently in our blog on<b><i>&nbsp;trading rules:</i></b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <i>“</i> \n <b><i>Opportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”</i></b> \n <b>&nbsp;–</b> \n <i>Todd Harrison</i>\n</blockquote>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n6 Positive Market Months In A Row... What Happens Next?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-18 14:52 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To wit:\n\n“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months. \nAs ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/6-positive-market-months-row-what-happens-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119160710","content_text":"In this past weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the rarity of 6-positive market months in a row. To wit:\n\n“An additional ‘red flag’ is the S&P 500 has had positive returns for 6-straight months. \nAs shown in the 10-year monthly chart below, such streaks are a rarity, and when they do occur, they are usually met by a month, or more, of negative returns.\n“\n\n(It is also worth noting that when the 12-Month RSI is this overbought, larger corrective processes have occurred.)\nAs stated, I only went back 10-years in the chart above. Such generated several email questions asking about the number of historical occurrences over the long term.\n6-Positive Market Months – Long Term\nUsing Dr. Robert Shiller’s long-term nominal stock market data, I calculated monthly positive returns and then highlighted periods of 6-positive market months or more.\nThere are several important takeaways from the chart above.\n\nAll periods of consecutive performance eventually end.(While such seems obvious, it is something investors tend to forget about during long bullish stretches.)\nGiven the extremely long-period of market history, such long-stretches of bullish performance are somewhat rare.\nSuch periods of performance often, but not always, precede fairly decent market corrections or bear markets.\n\nThe table below shows all periods where there were 2-months or more of consecutive positive returns.\nWhat the table shows is that nearly 40% of the time, a two-month stretch of positive performance is followed by at least one month of negative performance. Three consecutive positive months occur 23% of the time, and only 14% of occurrences stretch to 4-months.\nSince 1871, there have only been 12 occurrences of 6-month or greater stretches of positive returns before a negative month appeared.In total there are just 40 occurrences, out of 245 periods of 2-months or more, the market ran 6-months or longer without a correction.\nHowever, in every period, the run ended in at least a negative return month, but the vast majority ended with much deeper corrections.\nThis Time Is Different\nAt the current time, there is no concern about “risk” in the financial markets as the “bullish bias” remains unfettered. With the Fed still applying $120 billion a month in liquidity, investors learned the meaning of “the beatings will continue until morale improves.”\nIt is certainly possible the market advance can continue unabated into one of the historically lengthier stretches. The only question is when will it end, and how big of a correction will it be?\nWhat will cause the correction is unknown?The reason is that if the market becomes aware of an issue, participants “price”that “risk” into markets. Such is why, particularly when investors are aggressively positioned in the market when an unexpected, exogenous, event occurs prices decline rapidly as “risk” gets reduced.\nSuch is why the market was holding up fairly well in the face of the “Pandemic” in February of 2020. However, what market participants were not prepared for, the “exogenous” event, was the complete “shutdown” of the economy.\nSo, whatever event causes a rush of investors to the “exits,” is not something we are currently discussing or worried about in the financial media.\nSize Of The Correction\nThe magnitude of the correction is an easier question to answer.\nCurrently, the market is extremely deviated above its 2-year (24-month) moving average. Such extreme deviations are a historical rarity and have often resulted in corrections of 20% or more.\nAs we showed in “Past Performance Is No Guarantee,”\n\n“This is also where investors should be paying attention to the ‘risk’ they are taking on. As shown, there are few points in history where the index, monthly, is this extended, deviated, and bullish.”\n\nThere have only been 6-previous points in history where markets were simultaneously this extended, bullish, and overbought. Each of those periods marked more historical performance peaks – 1929, 1937, 1946, 1957, 1987, 1999.\nImportantly, the 72-month moving average has acted as long-term running support for the market going back to 1925. Violations of that moving average are rare and only occur during “mean-reverting” bear markets. Currently, a correction to the 72-month moving average would require a 36.5% decline.\nCurrently, such a correction seems unlikely given the current “bullish sentiment.” However, the same sentiment abounded in February 2020 just before the market tested that support.\nGiven the massive deviations from long-term means, our suspicion is that at some point we will likely again test that support in the future.\nInto The Belly Of The Beast\nThe market is currently priced for perfection. Investors continue to disregard warnings of slowing economic growth on hopes that monetary interventions will continue indefinitely. While such could indeed be the case, that does not preclude the market from having a correction or worse.\nInterest rates continue to decline sharply suggesting that economic growth is weakening rapidly. Such will lead to earnings disappointment in the months ahead at a time when valuations remain excessive on many levels.\nAugust and September historically sport weak performance for the market for a variety of reasons. However, given 6-positive market months already, the risk of a correction has risen markedly.\nThe first year of a new-President also sports weak performance during the August-September period.With the “debt ceiling” approaching, the Fed potentially discussing“tapering” asset purchases, and the potential for disappointment in economic reports, there are plenty of things to“spook” markets.\nThe point is simply that the “risk” of a correction is now elevated.\nWhat This Means And Doesn’t Mean\nLet me repeat the following just so there is no confusion.\n\n“What this analysis DOES NOT mean is that you should ‘sell everything’ and ‘hide in cash.’”\n\nAs always, long-term portfolio management is about managing “risk” by “tweaking” things over time.\nIf you have a “so so” hand at a poker table, you bet less or fold.\nIt doesn’t mean you get up and leave the table altogether.\nWhat this analysis does suppest is that we should use rallies to rebalance portfolios.\n\nTrim Winning Positions back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)\nSell Those Positions That Aren’t Working.If they don’t rally with the market during a bounce, they will decline more when the market sells off again.\nMove Trailing Stop Losses Up to new levels.\nReview Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance. If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.\n\nCould I be wrong? Absolutely.\nBut what if the indicators are warning us of something more significant?\nWhat’s worse:\n\nMissing out temporarily on the initial stages of a longer-term advance, or;\nSpending time getting back to even, which is not the same as making money.\n\nAs I noted recently in our blog on trading rules:\n\n“\nOpportunities are made up far easier than lost capital.”\n –\nTodd Harrison","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":297,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809659012,"gmtCreate":1627367787736,"gmtModify":1633765667704,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bad news&nbsp;","listText":"Bad news&nbsp;","text":"Bad news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809659012","repostId":"2154993011","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":819638086,"gmtCreate":1630062922845,"gmtModify":1704955367701,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lmao usa","listText":"Lmao usa","text":"Lmao usa","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/819638086","repostId":"2162847016","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896946787,"gmtCreate":1628553558349,"gmtModify":1633746271396,"author":{"id":"4090293128868610","authorId":"4090293128868610","name":"BennyB","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0437be526d49a07c745e3c48494e846","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4090293128868610","authorIdStr":"4090293128868610"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let's gooooooo amc","listText":"Let's gooooooo amc","text":"Let's gooooooo amc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896946787","repostId":"1196813173","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196813173","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628550902,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196813173?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-10 07:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: Casper Sleep, AMC Entertainment, 3D Systems and more","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196813173","media":"CNBC","summary":"Casper Sleep Inc. – The sleep products company reported record quarterly revenue that came in above ","content":"<div>\n<p>Casper Sleep Inc. – The sleep products company reported record quarterly revenue that came in above Street forecasts, though it still reported a quarterly loss. Casper Sleep said it saw strong growth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/10/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-in-the-premarket-casper-sleep-amc-entertainment-3d-systems-and-more.html?&qsearchterm=biggest%20moves\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"cnbc_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: Casper Sleep, AMC Entertainment, 3D Systems and more</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket: Casper Sleep, AMC Entertainment, 3D Systems and more\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-08-10 07:15 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/10/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-in-the-premarket-casper-sleep-amc-entertainment-3d-systems-and-more.html?&qsearchterm=biggest%20moves><strong>CNBC</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Casper Sleep Inc. – The sleep products company reported record quarterly revenue that came in above Street forecasts, though it still reported a quarterly loss. Casper Sleep said it saw strong growth ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/10/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-in-the-premarket-casper-sleep-amc-entertainment-3d-systems-and-more.html?&qsearchterm=biggest%20moves\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IIVI":"COHERENT CORP 6.00% MANDATORY CON PFD SER A","DDD":"3D系统","AMC":"AMC院线","ARMK":"Aramark","IHG":"洲际酒店","PLNT":"Planet Fitness Inc","CHGG":"Chegg Inc","KSU":"堪萨斯南方铁路"},"source_url":"https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/10/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-in-the-premarket-casper-sleep-amc-entertainment-3d-systems-and-more.html?&qsearchterm=biggest%20moves","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/72bb72e1b84c09fca865c6dcb1bbcd16","article_id":"1196813173","content_text":"Casper Sleep Inc. – The sleep products company reported record quarterly revenue that came in above Street forecasts, though it still reported a quarterly loss. Casper Sleep said it saw strong growth in both retail and direct-to-consumer sales channels, but noted that it is also dealing with higher input costs and supply chain difficulties. Shares initially rallied in the premarket, but subsequently tumbled 6.1%.\nAMC Entertainment – AMC reported a quarterly loss of 71 cents per share, 20 cents a share smaller than Wall Street had anticipated. Revenue came in above analysts’ forecasts. AMC was helped by the lifting of Covid restrictions and the return of moviegoers to theaters, along with the release of several hit movies. Its shares surged 7.8% in premarket action.\n3D – 3D Systems earned 12 cents per share for its latest quarter, beating the 5 cents a share consensus estimate. The 3D printing technology company’s revenue beat estimates as well. 3D said it had successfully come through the most challenging 12 months it had ever experienced amid the pandemic. 3D’s stock soared 14.1% in premarket action.\nKansas City Southern –Canadian Pacific Railway(CP) raised its cash-and-stock offer for Kansas City Southern to about $300 per share. Canadian Pacific had struck a deal to buy its rival rail operator for $275 per share, but Kansas City Southern subsequently agreed to a higher offer fromCanadian National Railway(CNI). Kansas City Southern surged 7.2% in the premarket, while Canadian Pacific lost 1.7% and Canadian National rose 1.9%.\nAramark – The foodservice company reported a quarterly profit of 3 cents per share, beating the penny a share consensus estimate. Revenue came in slightly below forecasts. Aramark said it benefited from rebounding sales volume as well as effective cost management. Aramark shares added 1.3% in the premarket.\nPlanet Fitness – Planet Fitness missed estimates by 2 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of 21 cents per share. Revenue topped estimates as gyms reopened and membership numbers increased for the fitness center operator. Shares fell 3.2% in the premarket.\nThe RealReal – The RealReal lost 50 cents per share for its latest quarter, 3 cents a share wider than analysts had anticipated. The operator of an online pre-owned luxury goods marketplace also saw revenue fall short of estimates. The company said gross merchandise volume was up 91% compared to a year ago, and up 84.5% from repeat buyers. The stock slid 6% in premarket trading.\nChegg – Chegg beat estimates by 6 cents a share, with quarterly earnings of 43 cents per share. The online education company’s revenue also topped forecasts. Chegg raised its full-year outlook, saying its international growth continues to be strong. Its shares added 2.9% in the premarket.\nInterContinental Hotels Group PLC – InterContinental Hotels reported an operating profit for the first six months of the year, rebounding from a year-ago loss as summer vacation bookings jumped. The operator of Holiday Inn and other hotel chains eliminated its dividend to cut costs, however, sending its shares down 1.6% in premarket trading.\nII-VI Inc – The maker of optoelectronic components beat estimates on the top and bottom lines for its latest quarter, earning 88 cents per share compared to a 76 cents a share consensus estimate. It also had its highest-ever backlog at the end of the 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