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AlvinCWC

AlvinCWC

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2021-08-16

Growth stocks normally have high PE and rich valuation; but they might eventually looks like bargain buy when EV dominates the car market

How to value Nio's stock compared to Tesla, VW, Ford and other rivals<blockquote>与特斯拉、大众、福特和其他竞争对手相比，如何评估蔚来的股票</blockquote>

2021-09-25

Just human behavior- you’ll try to exit if the future looks bad

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2021-09-03

It’s easy to advocate picking high quality stocks with solid profits & dividends but it’ll be even better if you may list down a number of them which tick the boxes

What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>当2022年数万亿美元的刺激计划用完时会发生什么？</blockquote>

2021-10-13

Timing the market is just like betting in casino - better stick to your own strategy and try not to drive by your emotion

Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市开始时你不会知道</blockquote>

2021-09-29

Unless you’re day trader, else just wait patiently if your thesis still hold

These high-flying stocks of 2021 dropped the most on Tuesday<blockquote>这些 2021 年飞涨的股票周二跌幅最大</blockquote>

2021-09-14

Consolidation phase - the strong will grow stronger

EV Stocks dipped in Monday morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股票在周一早盘交易中下跌</blockquote>

2021-08-16

Breaking all time high soon

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2021-09-02

Still riding on the uptrend but wondering what’s the next catalyst?

Apple shares rose nearly 2% in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘上涨近2%</blockquote>

2021-09-01

Interest rate will remains low for longer period forsure

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2021-09-01

Such bumpy ride recently

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better stick to your own strategy and try not to drive by your emotion&nbsp;","listText":"Timing the market is just like betting in casino - better stick to your own strategy and try not to drive by your emotion&nbsp;","text":"Timing the market is just like betting in casino - better stick to your own strategy and try not to drive by your emotion","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822181638","repostId":"1198930462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市开始时你不会知道</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p><p><blockquote>制定一个能够度过熊市的策略至关重要</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p><p><blockquote>14年前的本周，即2007年10月9日，股市在金融危机引发的熊市开始之前触及牛市高点。</blockquote></p><p> I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p><p><blockquote>我敢打赌，那天你脑子里最后一件事就是新的熊市是否开始了。相反，您无疑正在分享伴随着又一个牛市新高的繁荣。标普500比五年前牛市开始时的水平高出 120%。</blockquote></p><p> And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国历史上最严重的熊市之一就在那一天开始了。随后16个月的标普500将<i>失去</i>55%.</blockquote></p><p> This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p><p><blockquote>这条记忆之路非常重要，因为它提醒我们，牛市顶部并不能被实时识别。直到事实证明，牛市已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p><p><blockquote>许多客户强烈不同意我的观点，坚称他们事实上确实很清楚牛市在 2007 年 10 月达到顶峰。但他们几乎可以肯定是在改写历史，这是可以理解的。改写过去是人之常情，让事情看起来会像以前那样发展。</blockquote></p><p> But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p><p><blockquote>但2007-2009年熊市的开始在当时一点也不明显。</blockquote></p><p> If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p><p><blockquote>如果您有任何疑问，请考虑我公司每天监控的近 100 个短期股票市场计时器子集中的平均推荐股票敞口。(平均而言，HSNSI 指数在牛市见顶的当天达到最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p><p><blockquote>这在随附的图表中说明。它平均了过去 40 年每次牛市顶部之前和之后六周的 HSNSI（根据 Ned Davis Research 维护的日历）。如您所见，HSNSI 在平均牛市的最后六周上涨了 20 个百分点，然后在随后的熊市的前六周下跌了 40 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，专业市场计时器平均在他们应该最悲观的日子里最乐观。他们是整天、每天跟踪市场的专业人士。如果他们不能做得更好，那你凭什么认为你可以？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Comments of market timers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场计时器的评论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p><p><blockquote>我认为这些统计数据令人信服。但为了锦上添花，请考虑时事通讯编辑在 2007 年 10 月市场顶部当天或之前几天发表的具有代表性的评论样本：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>  <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>  <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>  <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>  <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>  <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li> </ul> Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>“仔细一听，就能听到隆隆声，那隆隆声是这次大牛市第三阶段的遥远雷声……我看到好时光滚滚而来，我真的看到了。”</li><li>“我已经有一段时间没有对用我们的大钱获得巨额利润的潜力充满信心了。因此，如果你还没有这样做，那么你必须尽快把钱投入到这个[股票]市场中。时间不等人，你的钱也在等着你。那就去做吧。”</li><li>“全球股市的牛市不仅在继续，而且.还在进入一个强劲的阶段.现在美联储已经挥舞着降息的旗帜，真的没有什么能阻挡市场了。”</li><li>“道琼斯指数 16,000 点来了.在我们看来，未来 3 到 6 个月股市将进入竞争状态。”[2007 年 10 月牛市顶部当天道琼斯指数为 14,165 点。]</li><li>“熊市周期性跌幅超过 20% 的风险并未出现在雷达屏幕上。”</li><li>“长期牛市是完好无损的.你应该在任何疲软的时候买入”。</li></ul>他们的热情是显而易见的，不是吗？不管你今天会给自己讲什么故事，你那天的感受都很有可能是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment lesson</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资教训</b></blockquote></p><p> The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p><p><blockquote>投资含义很明确：不要指望能够减少股票敞口来避开熊市。</blockquote></p><p> This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么你应该设计并遵循一个可以度过熊市的策略。如果你在牛市期间100%投资，直到标普500见顶，然后在熊市期间100%持有现金，那么它的收益不一定能达到理论上的最高收益。但是在现实世界中没有人达到理论上的最大值。</blockquote></p><p> The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，完美是善的敌人。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p><p><blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道熊市是否已经开始。标普500创下迄今为止的牛市高点已经一个多月了，目前的交易价格比该高点低了近 3%。</blockquote></p><p> But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p><p><blockquote>但如果它已经开始，我们要等到几个月后，也就是市场价格大幅下跌的时候才能确定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市开始时你不会知道</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市开始时你不会知道</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-12 21:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p><p><blockquote>制定一个能够度过熊市的策略至关重要</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p><p><blockquote>14年前的本周，即2007年10月9日，股市在金融危机引发的熊市开始之前触及牛市高点。</blockquote></p><p> I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p><p><blockquote>我敢打赌，那天你脑子里最后一件事就是新的熊市是否开始了。相反，您无疑正在分享伴随着又一个牛市新高的繁荣。标普500比五年前牛市开始时的水平高出 120%。</blockquote></p><p> And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国历史上最严重的熊市之一就在那一天开始了。随后16个月的标普500将<i>失去</i>55%.</blockquote></p><p> This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p><p><blockquote>这条记忆之路非常重要，因为它提醒我们，牛市顶部并不能被实时识别。直到事实证明，牛市已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p><p><blockquote>许多客户强烈不同意我的观点，坚称他们事实上确实很清楚牛市在 2007 年 10 月达到顶峰。但他们几乎可以肯定是在改写历史，这是可以理解的。改写过去是人之常情，让事情看起来会像以前那样发展。</blockquote></p><p> But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p><p><blockquote>但2007-2009年熊市的开始在当时一点也不明显。</blockquote></p><p> If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p><p><blockquote>如果您有任何疑问，请考虑我公司每天监控的近 100 个短期股票市场计时器子集中的平均推荐股票敞口。(平均而言，HSNSI 指数在牛市见顶的当天达到最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p><p><blockquote>这在随附的图表中说明。它平均了过去 40 年每次牛市顶部之前和之后六周的 HSNSI（根据 Ned Davis Research 维护的日历）。如您所见，HSNSI 在平均牛市的最后六周上涨了 20 个百分点，然后在随后的熊市的前六周下跌了 40 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，专业市场计时器平均在他们应该最悲观的日子里最乐观。他们是整天、每天跟踪市场的专业人士。如果他们不能做得更好，那你凭什么认为你可以？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Comments of market timers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场计时器的评论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p><p><blockquote>我认为这些统计数据令人信服。但为了锦上添花，请考虑时事通讯编辑在 2007 年 10 月市场顶部当天或之前几天发表的具有代表性的评论样本：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>  <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>  <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>  <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>  <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>  <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li> </ul> Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>“仔细一听，就能听到隆隆声，那隆隆声是这次大牛市第三阶段的遥远雷声……我看到好时光滚滚而来，我真的看到了。”</li><li>“我已经有一段时间没有对用我们的大钱获得巨额利润的潜力充满信心了。因此，如果你还没有这样做，那么你必须尽快把钱投入到这个[股票]市场中。时间不等人，你的钱也在等着你。那就去做吧。”</li><li>“全球股市的牛市不仅在继续，而且.还在进入一个强劲的阶段.现在美联储已经挥舞着降息的旗帜，真的没有什么能阻挡市场了。”</li><li>“道琼斯指数 16,000 点来了.在我们看来，未来 3 到 6 个月股市将进入竞争状态。”[2007 年 10 月牛市顶部当天道琼斯指数为 14,165 点。]</li><li>“熊市周期性跌幅超过 20% 的风险并未出现在雷达屏幕上。”</li><li>“长期牛市是完好无损的.你应该在任何疲软的时候买入”。</li></ul>他们的热情是显而易见的，不是吗？不管你今天会给自己讲什么故事，你那天的感受都很有可能是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment lesson</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资教训</b></blockquote></p><p> The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p><p><blockquote>投资含义很明确：不要指望能够减少股票敞口来避开熊市。</blockquote></p><p> This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么你应该设计并遵循一个可以度过熊市的策略。如果你在牛市期间100%投资，直到标普500见顶，然后在熊市期间100%持有现金，那么它的收益不一定能达到理论上的最高收益。但是在现实世界中没有人达到理论上的最大值。</blockquote></p><p> The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，完美是善的敌人。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p><p><blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道熊市是否已经开始。标普500创下迄今为止的牛市高点已经一个多月了，目前的交易价格比该高点低了近 3%。</blockquote></p><p> But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p><p><blockquote>但如果它已经开始，我们要等到几个月后，也就是市场价格大幅下跌的时候才能确定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823429949,"gmtCreate":1633655774931,"gmtModify":1633655775238,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Strong rebound! Hopefully it lasts&nbsp;","listText":"Strong rebound! Hopefully it lasts&nbsp;","text":"Strong rebound! Hopefully it lasts","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823429949","repostId":"1170144488","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170144488","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633614175,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1170144488?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-07 21:42","market":"other","language":"en","title":"China tech names rally in morning trading<blockquote>中国科技股早盘上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170144488","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Oct 7) China tech names rally in morning trading.\n\nChinese technology stocks listed in the U.S. are","content":"<p>(Oct 7)&nbsp;China tech names rally in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（10 月 7 日）中国科技股早盘上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f43fe405c7a1e296adb418a0267dda\" tg-width=\"343\" tg-height=\"843\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chinese technology stocks listed in the U.S. are signaling a third day of gains in moring trading after peers in Asia rallied on improved risk appetite.</p><p><blockquote>在亚洲同行因风险偏好改善而上涨后，在美国上市的中国科技股在早盘交易中连续第三天上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Shares in Pinduoduo Inc. rose 4.6% as of 9:44 a.m. in New York, while Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. climbed 5.67%. Other technology shares including Baidu Inc., Bilibili Inc. and DiDi Global Inc. were among American depositary receipts rising.</p><p><blockquote>截至纽约时间上午 9:44，拼多多股价上涨 4.6%，阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司股价上涨 5.67%。包括百度公司、哔哩哔哩和滴滴全球公司在内的其他科技股也在美国存托凭证上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese technology stocks&nbsp;rebounded&nbsp;from a record low in Hong Kong on Thursday amid signs of renewed interest in one of China’s biggest tech names. Charlie Munger’s Daily Journal Corp. was&nbsp;reported&nbsp;to have increased its Alibaba stake by 83% last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>中国科技股周四在香港从历史低点反弹，有迹象表明人们对中国最大的科技公司之一重新产生了兴趣。据报道，查理-芒格的《每日新闻》公司上个季度将其在阿里巴巴-SW的股份增加了 83%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21da2b3e7cd8ae63e949304ad3076747\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index -- which tracks several firms listed in the U.S. that conduct a majority of their business in China -- has also climbed for the past two days. Yet despite this week’s brief respite, the gauge remains deeply in the red year-to-date, having fallen 35%.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克金龙中国指数（Golden Dragon China Index）跟踪了几家在美国上市的公司，这些公司的大部分业务都在中国开展。该指数在过去两天也有所攀升。然而，尽管本周短暂喘息，但今年迄今为止，该指数仍深陷亏损，已下跌 35%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China tech names rally in morning trading<blockquote>中国科技股早盘上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina tech names rally in morning trading<blockquote>中国科技股早盘上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-07 21:42</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Oct 7)&nbsp;China tech names rally in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>（10 月 7 日）中国科技股早盘上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82f43fe405c7a1e296adb418a0267dda\" tg-width=\"343\" tg-height=\"843\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chinese technology stocks listed in the U.S. are signaling a third day of gains in moring trading after peers in Asia rallied on improved risk appetite.</p><p><blockquote>在亚洲同行因风险偏好改善而上涨后，在美国上市的中国科技股在早盘交易中连续第三天上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Shares in Pinduoduo Inc. rose 4.6% as of 9:44 a.m. in New York, while Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. climbed 5.67%. Other technology shares including Baidu Inc., Bilibili Inc. and DiDi Global Inc. were among American depositary receipts rising.</p><p><blockquote>截至纽约时间上午 9:44，拼多多股价上涨 4.6%，阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司股价上涨 5.67%。包括百度公司、哔哩哔哩和滴滴全球公司在内的其他科技股也在美国存托凭证上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese technology stocks&nbsp;rebounded&nbsp;from a record low in Hong Kong on Thursday amid signs of renewed interest in one of China’s biggest tech names. Charlie Munger’s Daily Journal Corp. was&nbsp;reported&nbsp;to have increased its Alibaba stake by 83% last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>中国科技股周四在香港从历史低点反弹，有迹象表明人们对中国最大的科技公司之一重新产生了兴趣。据报道，查理-芒格的《每日新闻》公司上个季度将其在阿里巴巴-SW的股份增加了 83%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/21da2b3e7cd8ae63e949304ad3076747\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"675\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index -- which tracks several firms listed in the U.S. that conduct a majority of their business in China -- has also climbed for the past two days. Yet despite this week’s brief respite, the gauge remains deeply in the red year-to-date, having fallen 35%.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克金龙中国指数（Golden Dragon China Index）跟踪了几家在美国上市的公司，这些公司的大部分业务都在中国开展。该指数在过去两天也有所攀升。然而，尽管本周短暂喘息，但今年迄今为止，该指数仍深陷亏损，已下跌 35%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170144488","content_text":"(Oct 7) China tech names rally in morning trading.\n\nChinese technology stocks listed in the U.S. are signaling a third day of gains in moring trading after peers in Asia rallied on improved risk appetite.\nShares in Pinduoduo Inc. rose 4.6% as of 9:44 a.m. in New York, while Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. climbed 5.67%. Other technology shares including Baidu Inc., Bilibili Inc. and DiDi Global Inc. were among American depositary receipts rising.\nChinese technology stocks rebounded from a record low in Hong Kong on Thursday amid signs of renewed interest in one of China’s biggest tech names. Charlie Munger’s Daily Journal Corp. was reported to have increased its Alibaba stake by 83% last quarter.\nThe Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index -- which tracks several firms listed in the U.S. that conduct a majority of their business in China -- has also climbed for the past two days. Yet despite this week’s brief respite, the gauge remains deeply in the red year-to-date, having fallen 35%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823420823,"gmtCreate":1633655722377,"gmtModify":1633655722682,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Share price plummeted for some obvious reasons; but if you are a long term value investors, just accumulate when it’s a bargain - anyhow, the company’s balance sheet is healthy and cash flow is strong&nbsp;","listText":"Share price plummeted for some obvious reasons; but if you are a long term value investors, just accumulate when it’s a bargain - anyhow, the company’s balance sheet is healthy and cash flow is strong&nbsp;","text":"Share price plummeted for some obvious reasons; but if you are a long term value investors, just accumulate when it’s a bargain - anyhow, the company’s balance sheet is healthy and cash flow is strong","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823420823","repostId":"2173497159","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867471608,"gmtCreate":1633311303726,"gmtModify":1633311304020,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02845\">$GX CN EV BATT(02845)$</a>Uptrend still intact&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02845\">$GX CN EV BATT(02845)$</a>Uptrend still intact&nbsp;","text":"$GX CN EV BATT(02845)$Uptrend still intact","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bda873498523bb92a41062bc8cb3fdd3","width":"1125","height":"2879"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867471608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3253,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":867447781,"gmtCreate":1633311064593,"gmtModify":1633311169122,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"TP 1000 [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"TP 1000 [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"TP 1000 [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/867447781","repostId":"1195986801","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195986801","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633237941,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1195986801?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-03 13:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Tesla's Q3 Numbers Are 'Eye Popping' and Hard to Poke Holes In<blockquote>为什么特斯拉第三季度的数据“令人瞠目结舌”且难以戳破</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195986801","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Tesla, Inc. reported Saturday record quarterly deliveries despite the surrounding turbulence. An analyst at Wedbush Securities sees the performance as \"massive.\". The Tesla Analyst:Daniel Ives maintained an Outperform rating and $1,000 price target for Tesla shares.The Tesla Thesis:Tesla's third-quarter deliveries of 241,000 beat even the bull-case whisper number on the Street, analyst Ives said in a note. The strength, the analyst said, was driven byrobust Model 3/Y salesof 232, 000.Total produ","content":"<p><div> Tesla, Inc. reported Saturday record quarterly deliveries despite the surrounding turbulence. An analyst at Wedbush Securities sees the performance as \"massive.\" The Tesla Analyst:Daniel Ives ...</p><p><blockquote><div>尽管周围动荡，特斯拉公司周六公布的季度交付量仍创下历史新高。Wedbush Securities 的一位分析师认为这一业绩“巨大”。特斯拉分析师：Daniel Ives...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/10/23207870/why-teslas-q3-numbers-are-eye-popping-and-hard-to-poke-holes-in\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/10/23207870/why-teslas-q3-numbers-are-eye-popping-and-hard-to-poke-holes-in\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Tesla's Q3 Numbers Are 'Eye Popping' and Hard to Poke Holes In<blockquote>为什么特斯拉第三季度的数据“令人瞠目结舌”且难以戳破</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Tesla's Q3 Numbers Are 'Eye Popping' and Hard to Poke Holes In<blockquote>为什么特斯拉第三季度的数据“令人瞠目结舌”且难以戳破</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-03 13:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Tesla, Inc. reported Saturday record quarterly deliveries despite the surrounding turbulence. An analyst at Wedbush Securities sees the performance as \"massive.\" The Tesla Analyst:Daniel Ives ...</p><p><blockquote><div>尽管周围动荡，特斯拉公司周六公布的季度交付量仍创下历史新高。Wedbush Securities 的一位分析师认为这一业绩“巨大”。特斯拉分析师：Daniel Ives...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/10/23207870/why-teslas-q3-numbers-are-eye-popping-and-hard-to-poke-holes-in\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/10/23207870/why-teslas-q3-numbers-are-eye-popping-and-hard-to-poke-holes-in\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/10/23207870/why-teslas-q3-numbers-are-eye-popping-and-hard-to-poke-holes-in\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/21/10/23207870/why-teslas-q3-numbers-are-eye-popping-and-hard-to-poke-holes-in","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195986801","content_text":"Tesla, Inc. reported Saturday record quarterly deliveries despite the surrounding turbulence. An analyst at Wedbush Securities sees the performance as \"massive.\"\nThe Tesla Analyst:Daniel Ives maintained an Outperform rating and $1,000 price target for Tesla shares.\nThe Tesla Thesis:Tesla's third-quarter deliveries of 241,000 beat even the bull-case whisper number on the Street, analyst Ives said in a note. The strength, the analyst said, was driven byrobust Model 3/Y salesof 232, 000.\nTotal production in the quarter was 238,000, about 10,000 ahead of Wedbush's and Street estimates, the analyst said.\n\"Taking a step back, with the chip shortage a major overhang on the auto space and logistical issues globally, these delivery numbers were \"eye-popping\" and speak to an EV demand trajectory that looks quite robust for Tesla heading into 4Q and 2022,\" Ives wrote in the note.\nWedbush's estimate of 150,000 deliveries for September, according to the analyst, is a clear indicator of the green tidal wave taking hold for Tesla across the board. China demand may have rebounded in the quarter and will be a focus for the bulls digesting these results, he added.\n\"In a nutshell, these numbers are hard to poke holes in and will be a major feather in the cap for the bulls on Monday morning and should improve broader sentiment on the EV space as a whole,\" Wedbush said.\nTesla Price Action:Tesla shares closed Friday's session down 0.03% at $775.22 and were down an incremental 0.03% in after-hours trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862645298,"gmtCreate":1632878130442,"gmtModify":1632878130557,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Long term upward trend still intact tho&nbsp;","listText":"Long term upward trend still intact tho&nbsp;","text":"Long term upward trend still intact tho","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862645298","repostId":"1155723613","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155723613","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632839322,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1155723613?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-28 22:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks dropped in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘交易中下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155723613","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV stocks dropped in morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors,Li Auto,Lucid,Nikola,Fisker,Niu Technolo","content":"<p>EV stocks dropped in morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors,Li Auto,Lucid,Nikola,Fisker,Niu Technologies&nbsp;and&nbsp;Faraday Future&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 1% and 5%.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌。特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏汽车、理想汽车、Lucid、Nikola、Fisker、小牛科技和法拉第未来跌幅在1%至5%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43dde189cdc270c215d32a2c5de7eafa\" tg-width=\"410\" tg-height=\"717\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks dropped in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘交易中下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks dropped in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘交易中下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-28 22:28</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>EV stocks dropped in morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors,Li Auto,Lucid,Nikola,Fisker,Niu Technologies&nbsp;and&nbsp;Faraday Future&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 1% and 5%.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌。特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏汽车、理想汽车、Lucid、Nikola、Fisker、小牛科技和法拉第未来跌幅在1%至5%之间。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43dde189cdc270c215d32a2c5de7eafa\" tg-width=\"410\" tg-height=\"717\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155723613","content_text":"EV stocks dropped in morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors,Li Auto,Lucid,Nikola,Fisker,Niu Technologies and Faraday Future fell between 1% and 5%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"LI":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862646383,"gmtCreate":1632878034640,"gmtModify":1632878034713,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Unless you’re day trader, else just wait patiently if your thesis still hold","listText":"Unless you’re day trader, else just wait patiently if your thesis still hold","text":"Unless you’re day trader, else just wait patiently if your thesis still hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862646383","repostId":"1106892312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106892312","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632870830,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1106892312?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 07:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These high-flying stocks of 2021 dropped the most on Tuesday<blockquote>这些 2021 年飞涨的股票周二跌幅最大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106892312","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Stocks hit especially hard include Moderna, Nvidia and Google holding company Alphabet.\n\nThe Federal","content":"<p>  <b>Stocks hit especially hard include Moderna, Nvidia and Google holding company Alphabet.</b>  The Federal Reserve’s signaled policy change is having a predictable effect — pushing stock prices lower as bond yields become more attractive.</p><p><blockquote><b>遭受重创的股票包括 Moderna、Nvidia 和谷歌控股公司Alphabet。</b>美联储发出的政策变化信号正在产生可预见的效果--随着债券收益率变得更具吸引力，推动股价走低。</blockquote></p><p> This reverses some very strong action for U.S. stocks — at least for a day. Below is a list of 10 stocks that had increased at least 50% for 2021 through Sept. 27, but were pulled back the most on Sept. 28.</p><p><blockquote>这逆转了美国股市的一些非常强劲的走势——至少在一天内是这样。以下是截至 9 月 27 日在 2021 年上涨至少 50%，但在 9 月 28 日回调幅度最大的 10 只股票列表。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIAdeclined 1.6%, while the S&amp;P 500 IndexSPXfell 2%. The Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMPfared worst, tumbling 2.8%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 1.6%，标普500指数 SPX 下跌 2%。纳斯达克综合指数表现最差，下跌 2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notesBX:TMUBMUSD10Yincreased by 5 basis points to 1.55%. That was up from 1.33% only a week earlier.</p><p><blockquote>10年期美国国债BX:TMUBMUSD10YIN收益率上升5个基点至1.55%。这比一周前的 1.33% 有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> Combined, there are 523 stocks in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq-100NDXindexes. Among these stocks, 50 had risen at least 50% so far in 2021 through Sept. 27, excluding dividends, according to data provided by FactSet. Here are the 10 that declined the most on Sept. 28 — actually 11 stocks, as two common-share classes of Alphabet Inc.GOOGLGOOGare included:</p><p><blockquote>标普500和纳斯达克-100NDXIN指数合计有523只股票。FactSet 提供的数据显示，截至 9 月 27 日，其中 50 只股票在 2021 年迄今为止（不包括股息）上涨了至少 50%。以下是 9 月 28 日跌幅最大的 10 只股票，实际上是 11 只股票，其中包括Alphabet公司的两个普通股类别：GOOGLGOOGare：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e62aed3304cd811cf41ce390e38c41c\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"713\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83133c4cfdb3554d40f750a60c91892c\" tg-width=\"1101\" tg-height=\"291\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Click the tickers for more about each company. Clickhere&nbsp;for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the quote page.</p><p><blockquote>单击股票代码了解有关每家公司的更多信息。点击此处查看 Tomi Kilgore 在报价页面上免费提供的丰富信息的详细指南。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These high-flying stocks of 2021 dropped the most on Tuesday<blockquote>这些 2021 年飞涨的股票周二跌幅最大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese high-flying stocks of 2021 dropped the most on Tuesday<blockquote>这些 2021 年飞涨的股票周二跌幅最大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 07:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Stocks hit especially hard include Moderna, Nvidia and Google holding company Alphabet.</b>  The Federal Reserve’s signaled policy change is having a predictable effect — pushing stock prices lower as bond yields become more attractive.</p><p><blockquote><b>遭受重创的股票包括 Moderna、Nvidia 和谷歌控股公司Alphabet。</b>美联储发出的政策变化信号正在产生可预见的效果--随着债券收益率变得更具吸引力，推动股价走低。</blockquote></p><p> This reverses some very strong action for U.S. stocks — at least for a day. Below is a list of 10 stocks that had increased at least 50% for 2021 through Sept. 27, but were pulled back the most on Sept. 28.</p><p><blockquote>这逆转了美国股市的一些非常强劲的走势——至少在一天内是这样。以下是截至 9 月 27 日在 2021 年上涨至少 50%，但在 9 月 28 日回调幅度最大的 10 只股票列表。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIAdeclined 1.6%, while the S&amp;P 500 IndexSPXfell 2%. The Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMPfared worst, tumbling 2.8%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 1.6%，标普500指数 SPX 下跌 2%。纳斯达克综合指数表现最差，下跌 2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notesBX:TMUBMUSD10Yincreased by 5 basis points to 1.55%. That was up from 1.33% only a week earlier.</p><p><blockquote>10年期美国国债BX:TMUBMUSD10YIN收益率上升5个基点至1.55%。这比一周前的 1.33% 有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> Combined, there are 523 stocks in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq-100NDXindexes. Among these stocks, 50 had risen at least 50% so far in 2021 through Sept. 27, excluding dividends, according to data provided by FactSet. Here are the 10 that declined the most on Sept. 28 — actually 11 stocks, as two common-share classes of Alphabet Inc.GOOGLGOOGare included:</p><p><blockquote>标普500和纳斯达克-100NDXIN指数合计有523只股票。FactSet 提供的数据显示，截至 9 月 27 日，其中 50 只股票在 2021 年迄今为止（不包括股息）上涨了至少 50%。以下是 9 月 28 日跌幅最大的 10 只股票，实际上是 11 只股票，其中包括Alphabet公司的两个普通股类别：GOOGLGOOGare：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e62aed3304cd811cf41ce390e38c41c\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"713\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83133c4cfdb3554d40f750a60c91892c\" tg-width=\"1101\" tg-height=\"291\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Click the tickers for more about each company. Clickhere&nbsp;for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the quote page.</p><p><blockquote>单击股票代码了解有关每家公司的更多信息。点击此处查看 Tomi Kilgore 在报价页面上免费提供的丰富信息的详细指南。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-high-flying-stocks-of-2021-have-dropped-the-most-today-11632846406?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-high-flying-stocks-of-2021-have-dropped-the-most-today-11632846406?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106892312","content_text":"Stocks hit especially hard include Moderna, Nvidia and Google holding company Alphabet.\n\nThe Federal Reserve’s signaled policy change is having a predictable effect — pushing stock prices lower as bond yields become more attractive.\nThis reverses some very strong action for U.S. stocks — at least for a day. Below is a list of 10 stocks that had increased at least 50% for 2021 through Sept. 27, but were pulled back the most on Sept. 28.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIAdeclined 1.6%, while the S&P 500 IndexSPXfell 2%. The Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMPfared worst, tumbling 2.8%.\nThe yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notesBX:TMUBMUSD10Yincreased by 5 basis points to 1.55%. That was up from 1.33% only a week earlier.\nCombined, there are 523 stocks in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100NDXindexes. Among these stocks, 50 had risen at least 50% so far in 2021 through Sept. 27, excluding dividends, according to data provided by FactSet. Here are the 10 that declined the most on Sept. 28 — actually 11 stocks, as two common-share classes of Alphabet Inc.GOOGLGOOGare included:\nClick the tickers for more about each company. Clickhere for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the quote page.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861444685,"gmtCreate":1632534650747,"gmtModify":1632710112756,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Just human behavior- you’ll try to exit if the future looks bad","listText":"Just human behavior- you’ll try to exit if the future looks bad","text":"Just human behavior- you’ll try to exit if the future looks bad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861444685","repostId":"1187521937","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861068706,"gmtCreate":1632443291905,"gmtModify":1632724993967,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Looks like a better buy than First Resources&nbsp;","listText":"Looks like a better buy than First Resources&nbsp;","text":"Looks like a better buy than First Resources","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861068706","repostId":"1148130438","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1148130438","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632412797,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148130438?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-23 23:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sterling Check opens for trading at $27.1, up about 18% from IPO price<blockquote>英镑支票开盘价为 27.1 美元，较 IPO 价格上涨约 18%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148130438","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Sept 23) Sterling Check Corp. opens for trading at $27.1, up about 18% from IPO price.\nCompany & Te","content":"<p>(Sept 23)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STER\">Sterling Check Corp.</a> opens for trading at $27.1, up about 18% from IPO price.</p><p><blockquote>（9月23日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STER\">斯特林支票公司</a>开盘价为 27.1 美元，较 IPO 价格上涨约 18%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc3f51dd719989f02bf56c538ce17c72\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Company &amp; Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司与技术</b></blockquote></p><p> New York-based Sterling was founded to develop a full suite of background screening, verifications and ongoing monitoring services for businesses.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于纽约的Sterling成立的目的是为企业开发一整套背景筛选、验证和持续监控服务。</blockquote></p><p> Management is headed by Chief Executive Officer Joshua Peirez, who has been with the firm since July 2018 and was previously president and COO of Dun &amp; Bradstreet and held senior roles at Mastercard prior to that.</p><p><blockquote>管理层由首席执行官约书亚·佩雷斯 (Joshua Peirez) 领导，他自 2018 年 7 月起加入该公司，此前曾担任邓白氏总裁兼首席运营官，在此之前曾在万事达卡担任高级职务。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s primary offering categories include:</p><p><blockquote>公司的主要发行类别包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Identity verification</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>身份验证</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Background screening</p><p><blockquote><li>背景筛选</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Credential verifications</p><p><blockquote><li>凭证验证</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Onboarding</p><p><blockquote><li>入职</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Ongoing monitoring</p><p><blockquote><li>持续监测</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Sterling has received at least $775 million in equity investment from investors including Goldman Sachs and The Greenblatt Trusts.</p><p><blockquote>英镑已从高盛和格林布拉特信托等投资者那里获得了至少 7.75 亿美元的股权投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Customer Acquisition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户获取</b></blockquote></p><p> The firm pursues large clients through a direct sales team approach organized by industry vertical and region.</p><p><blockquote>该公司通过按行业垂直和地区组织的直销团队方法来追求大客户。</blockquote></p><p> For the 12 months ended June 30, 2021, the firm's platform performed over 75 million searches for over 40,000 clients.</p><p><blockquote>在截至2021年6月30日的12个月中，该公司的平台为超过40,000个客户进行了超过7500万次搜索。</blockquote></p><p> Selling, G&amp;A expenses as a percentage of total revenue have dropped as revenues have fluctuated, as the figures below indicate:</p><p><blockquote>销售、G&amp;A费用占总收入的百分比随着收入的波动而下降，如下图所示：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <colgroup></colgroup>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Selling, G&amp;A</b></p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>销售、G&amp;A</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Expenses vs. Revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>费用与收入</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Percentage</p><p><blockquote><td>百分比</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> (Source)</p><p><blockquote>（来源）</blockquote></p><p> The Selling, G&amp;A efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Selling, G&amp;A spend, rebounded to 1.3x in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:</p><p><blockquote>销售、G&amp;A 效率率（定义为每 1 美元销售、G&amp;A 支出产生多少美元额外新收入）在最近的报告期内反弹至 1.3 倍，如下表所示：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <colgroup></colgroup>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Selling, G&amp;A</b></p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>销售、G&amp;A</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Efficiency Rate</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>效率率</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Multiple</p><p><blockquote><td>多个的</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.3</p><p><blockquote><td>1.3</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-0.4</p><p><blockquote><td>-0.4</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> (Source)</p><p><blockquote>（来源）</blockquote></p><p> The Rule of 40 is a software industry rule of thumb that says that as long as the combined revenue growth rate and EBITDA percentage rate equal or exceed 40%, the firm is on an acceptable growth/EBITDA trajectory.</p><p><blockquote>40法则是软件行业的一条经验法则，即只要收入增长率和EBITDA百分比等于或超过40%，公司就处于可接受的增长/EBITDA轨迹上。</blockquote></p><p> STER’s most recent calculation was 51% for the six months ended June 30, 2021, so the firm has performed well in this regard, per the table below:</p><p><blockquote>STER 的最新计算结果是截至 2021 年 6 月 30 日的六个月内为 51%，因此该公司在这方面表现良好，如下表所示：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <colgroup></colgroup>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Rule of 40</b></p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>40法则</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Calculation</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>计算</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Recent Rev. Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>近期修订版增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>44%</p><p><blockquote><td>44%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>EBITDA %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>息税折旧摊销前利润百分比</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8%</p><p><blockquote><td>8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>51%</p><p><blockquote><td>51%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> (Source)</p><p><blockquote>（来源）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market &amp; Competition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场与竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> According to a 2021 marketresearch reportby The Insight Partners, the global employment screening market, one of the firm's focus areas, was an estimated $4.2 billion in 2020 and is forecast to reach $6.4 billion by 2028.</p><p><blockquote>根据Insight Partners 2021年的市场研究报告，该公司的重点领域之一全球就业筛选市场在2020年估计为42亿美元，预计到2028年将达到64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This represents a forecast CAGR of 5.5% from 2021 to 2028.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着2021年至2028年的预测CAGR为5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The main drivers for this expected growth are increased populations in urban areas resulting in greater job opportunities and employee demand and a growing incidence of application fraud or inflation.</p><p><blockquote>这一预期增长的主要驱动力是城市地区人口的增加，导致更多的就业机会和员工需求，以及申请欺诈或通货膨胀的发生率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Also, the number of applicants for each job opening has increased along with a larger number of contract, temporary and 'gig economy' workers.</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着合同工、临时工和“零工经济”工人数量的增加，每个职位空缺的申请人数也有所增加。</blockquote></p><p> Major competitive or other industry participants include:</p><p><blockquote>主要竞争或其他行业参与者包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>First Advantage</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第一优势</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>HireRight</p><p><blockquote><li>雇佣权</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Accurate Background</p><p><blockquote><li>准确背景</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>ADP</p><p><blockquote><li>ADP</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cisive</p><p><blockquote><li>西西夫</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Checkr</p><p><blockquote><li>检查</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>DISA</p><p><blockquote><li>迪萨</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Triton</p><p><blockquote><li>海卫一</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Other smaller players</p><p><blockquote><li>其他较小的玩家</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p> Sterling’s recent financial results can be summarized as follows:</p><p><blockquote>Sterling 近期的财务业绩可概括如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Rebounding topline revenue growth</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>营收增长反弹</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Variable gross profit growth</p><p><blockquote><li>可变毛利增长</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Slightly reduced gross margin</p><p><blockquote><li>毛利率略有下降</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>A swing to operating profit and net income</p><p><blockquote><li>营业利润和净利润波动</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Growing cash flow from operations in 2021</p><p><blockquote><li>2021年经营现金流增长</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Below are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:</p><p><blockquote>以下是公司注册声明中的相关财务业绩：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <colgroup></colgroup>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Total Revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>总收入</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Total Revenue</p><p><blockquote><td>总收入</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>% Variance vs. Prior</p><p><blockquote><td>与先前相比的%方差</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 298,698,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$298,698,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>43.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>43.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 454,053,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$454,053,000</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>-8.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>-8.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 497,116,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$497,116,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr></tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Gross Profit (Loss)</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>毛利（亏损）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Gross Profit (Loss)</p><p><blockquote><td>毛利（亏损）</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>% Variance vs. Prior</p><p><blockquote><td>与先前相比的%方差</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 155,539,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$155,539,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>41.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>41.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 236,743,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$236,743,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-14.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-14.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 275,769,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$275,769,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr></tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Gross Margin</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>毛利率</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Gross Margin</p><p><blockquote><td>毛利率</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>52.07%</p><p><blockquote><td>52.07%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>52.14%</p><p><blockquote><td>52.14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>55.47%</p><p><blockquote><td>55.47%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr></tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Operating Profit (Loss)</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>营业溢利（亏损）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Operating Profit (Loss)</p><p><blockquote><td>营业溢利（亏损）</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Operating Margin</p><p><blockquote><td>营业利润率</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 23,204,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$23,204,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ (23,103,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(23,103,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-5.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>-5.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ (13,374,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(13,374,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr></tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Net Income (Loss)</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>净收入（亏损）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Net Income (Loss)</p><p><blockquote><td>净收入（亏损）</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 4,025,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$4,025,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ (52,293,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(52,293,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ (46,682,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(46,682,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr></tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Cash Flow From Operations</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>经营现金流量</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Cash Flow From Operations</p><p><blockquote><td>经营现金流量</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 45,290,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$45,290,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 36,185,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$36,185,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 36,204,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$36,204,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr></tr>   <tr>    <td>(Glossary Of Terms)</p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td>（术语表）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> (Source)</p><p><blockquote>（来源）</blockquote></p><p> As of June 30, 2021, Sterling had $94.3 million in cash and $744.8 million in total liabilities.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日，斯特林拥有9430万美元现金和7.448亿美元总负债。</blockquote></p><p> Free cash flow during the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was $45 million.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日的12个月内，自由现金流为4500万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Details</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO详情</b></blockquote></p><p> STER intends to sell 4.76 million shares and selling shareholders will offer 9.525 million shares of common stock at a proposed midpoint price of $21.00 per share for gross proceeds of approximately $300 million, not including the sale of customary underwriter options.</p><p><blockquote>STER 打算出售 476 万股股票，出售股东将以每股 21.00 美元的拟议中点价格发售 952.5 万股普通股，总收益约为 3 亿美元，不包括出售惯例承销商期权。</blockquote></p><p> No existing shareholders have indicated an interest to purchase shares at the IPO price.</p><p><blockquote>没有现有股东表示有兴趣以IPO价格购买股份。</blockquote></p><p> Assuming a successful IPO at the midpoint of the proposed price range, the company’s enterprise value at IPO (ex- underwriter options) would approximate $2.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>假设在拟议价格范围的中点成功进行首次公开募股，公司在首次公开募股时的企业价值（不包括承销商期权）将约为 24 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding effects of underwriter options and private placement shares or restricted stock, if any, the float to outstanding shares ratio will be approximately 15.2%. A figure under 10% is generally considered a ‘low float’ stock which can be subject to significant price volatility.</p><p><blockquote>撇除包销商购股权及私募股份或限制性股票（如有）的影响，流通股与流通股的比率将约为15.2%。低于 10% 的数字通常被认为是 “低流通量 ”股票，可能会受到大幅价格波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Per the firm’s most recent regulatory filing, it plans to use the net proceeds as follows:</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司最新提交的监管文件，该公司计划将净收益用于以下用途：</blockquote></p><p>   We currently intend to use the net proceeds to us from this offering, together with cash on hand, to repay approximately $100.0 million outstanding under our Term loan. We intend to use the remainder, if any, of the net proceeds to us from this offering for general corporate purposes.  Management’s presentation of the company roadshow isavailable here.</p><p><blockquote>我们目前打算使用本次发行的净收益以及手头现金来偿还我们定期贷款下约 1 亿美元的未偿还款项。我们打算将本次发售所得款项净额的剩余部分（如有）用于一般公司用途。管理层对公司路演的介绍可在此处查看。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding outstanding legal proceedings, management said the firm is not a party to any legal proceedings that it believes would be material to its operations or financial condition.</p><p><blockquote>关于未决法律诉讼，管理层表示，该公司不是其认为对其运营或财务状况有重大影响的任何法律诉讼的一方。</blockquote></p><p> Listed bookrunners of the IPO are Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and other investment banks.</p><p><blockquote>此次IPO的上市账簿管理人包括高盛、摩根大通、摩根士丹利等投资银行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值指标</b></blockquote></p><p> Below is a table of the firm’s relevant capitalization and valuation metrics at IPO, excluding the effects of underwriter options:</p><p><blockquote>下表列出了该公司首次公开募股时的相关资本和估值指标，不包括承销商期权的影响：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <colgroup></colgroup>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Measure [TTM]</b></p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>测量[TTM]</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Amount</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>数量</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Market Capitalization at IPO</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>首次公开发售时的市值</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$1,973,227,914</p><p><blockquote><td>$1,973,227,914</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Enterprise Value</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>企业价值</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$2,401,254,914</p><p><blockquote><td>$2,401,254,914</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Price / Sales</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>价格/销售</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3.62</p><p><blockquote><td>3.62</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>EV / Revenue</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>电动汽车/收入</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.41</p><p><blockquote><td>4.41</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>EV / EBITDA</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>首页 / EBITDA</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.06</p><p><blockquote><td>122.06</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Earnings Per Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股盈利</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-$0.08</p><p><blockquote><td>-$0.08</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Float To Outstanding Shares Ratio</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>流通股与流通股比率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Proposed IPO Midpoint Price per Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>建议IPO每股中点价格</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$21.00</p><p><blockquote><td>$21.00</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Net Free Cash Flow</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>净自由现金流量</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$44,998,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$44,998,000</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Free Cash Flow Yield Per Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股自由现金流收益率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.28%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.28%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revenue Growth Rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>收入增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>43.64%</p><p><blockquote><td>43.64%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>(Glossary Of Terms)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>（术语表）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> (Source)</p><p><blockquote>（来源）</blockquote></p><p> As a reference, a potential public comparable would be First Advantage(NASDAQ:FA); shown below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，潜在的公开可比股票是 First Advantage（纳斯达克股票代码：FA）；以下是其主要估值指标的比较：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <colgroup></colgroup>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Metric</b></p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>度量</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>First Advantage</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>第一优势</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Sterling Check</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>英镑支票</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Variance</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>差异</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Price / Sales</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>价格/销售</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.76</p><p><blockquote><td>5.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3.62</p><p><blockquote><td>3.62</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-37.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>-37.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>EV / Revenue</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>电动汽车/收入</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.53</p><p><blockquote><td>6.53</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.41</p><p><blockquote><td>4.41</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-32.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>-32.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>EV / EBITDA</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>首页 / EBITDA</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23.41</p><p><blockquote><td>23.41</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.06</p><p><blockquote><td>122.06</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>421.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>421.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Earnings Per Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股盈利</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$0.04</p><p><blockquote><td>$0.04</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-$0.08</p><p><blockquote><td>-$0.08</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-293.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-293.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revenue Growth Rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>收入增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>43.64%</p><p><blockquote><td>43.64%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>127.89%</p><p><blockquote><td>127.89%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>(Glossary Of Terms)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>（术语表）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> (S-1/AandSeeking Alpha)</p><p><blockquote>（S-1/夜探阿尔法）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Commentary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>评论</b></blockquote></p><p> STER is going public to obtain investment to pay down some of its debt and for its corporate expansion initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>STER 将上市以获得投资，以偿还部分债务并用于公司扩张计划。</blockquote></p><p> The firm’s financials show rebounding topline revenue growth, uneven gross profit growth, a swing to operating profit and net income and growing cash flow from operations in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的财务数据显示，2021 年营收增长反弹，毛利润增长不均衡，营业利润和净利润出现波动，运营现金流不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> Free cash flow for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was an impressive $45 million.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日的12个月的自由现金流达到了令人印象深刻的4500万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Selling, G&amp;A expenses as a percentage of total revenue have trended lower as revenue has varied and its Selling, G&amp;A efficiency rate rebounded to 1.3x in the most recent six-month reporting period.</p><p><blockquote>随着收入的变化，销售、G&amp;A费用占总收入的百分比呈下降趋势，其销售、G&amp;A效率在最近六个月的报告期内反弹至1.3倍。</blockquote></p><p> The market opportunity for providing background checks and related services is large and expected to grow at a moderate CAGR Of 5.5% in the coming years, although the continued transition to a decentralized workforce may increase demand a bit above this estimate.</p><p><blockquote>提供背景调查和相关服务的市场机会很大，预计未来几年将以5.5%的适度复合年增长率增长，尽管向分散劳动力的持续过渡可能会增加略高于这一估计的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 37.3% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.</p><p><blockquote>高盛是主承销商，该公司在过去 12 个月内牵头的 IPO 自 IPO 以来的平均回报率为 37.3%。这是期内所有主要承销商的中级表现。</blockquote></p><p> The general business cycle - when companies hire fewer workers during down economic periods, demand for the company’s services will decline.</p><p><blockquote>一般商业周期--当公司在经济低迷时期雇佣的工人减少时，对公司服务的需求就会下降。</blockquote></p><p> While Sterling is not immune to the ups and downs of the business cycle and potential future pandemic variant effects on economic activity, the firm has rebounded impressively and appears positioned to compete in a growing market.</p><p><blockquote>尽管英镑也不能幸免于商业周期的起伏以及未来大流行变体对经济活动的潜在影响，但该公司已经出现了令人印象深刻的反弹，似乎有能力在不断增长的市场上竞争。</blockquote></p><p> As for valuation, compared to First Advantage, which went public earlier in 2021 and performed since its debut, STER appears reasonably valued on a revenue multiple basis as the firm is growing revenue at a faster rate. STER is nearing EPS breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>至于估值，与 2021 年初上市并自首次亮相以来一直表现良好的 First Advantage 相比，STER 在收入倍数基础上的估值似乎合理，因为该公司的收入增长速度更快。STER 的每股收益接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> Given the company’s strong rebound after the 2020 pandemic period and reasonable IPO valuation, the IPO is worth a close look.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于该公司在 2020 年大流行期后的强劲反弹以及合理的 IPO 估值，此次 IPO 值得密切关注。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sterling Check opens for trading at $27.1, up about 18% from IPO price<blockquote>英镑支票开盘价为 27.1 美元，较 IPO 价格上涨约 18%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSterling Check opens for trading at $27.1, up about 18% from IPO price<blockquote>英镑支票开盘价为 27.1 美元，较 IPO 价格上涨约 18%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-23 23:59</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 23)&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STER\">Sterling Check Corp.</a> opens for trading at $27.1, up about 18% from IPO price.</p><p><blockquote>（9月23日）<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STER\">斯特林支票公司</a>开盘价为 27.1 美元，较 IPO 价格上涨约 18%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc3f51dd719989f02bf56c538ce17c72\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>Company &amp; Technology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>公司与技术</b></blockquote></p><p> New York-based Sterling was founded to develop a full suite of background screening, verifications and ongoing monitoring services for businesses.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于纽约的Sterling成立的目的是为企业开发一整套背景筛选、验证和持续监控服务。</blockquote></p><p> Management is headed by Chief Executive Officer Joshua Peirez, who has been with the firm since July 2018 and was previously president and COO of Dun &amp; Bradstreet and held senior roles at Mastercard prior to that.</p><p><blockquote>管理层由首席执行官约书亚·佩雷斯 (Joshua Peirez) 领导，他自 2018 年 7 月起加入该公司，此前曾担任邓白氏总裁兼首席运营官，在此之前曾在万事达卡担任高级职务。</blockquote></p><p> The company’s primary offering categories include:</p><p><blockquote>公司的主要发行类别包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Identity verification</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>身份验证</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Background screening</p><p><blockquote><li>背景筛选</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Credential verifications</p><p><blockquote><li>凭证验证</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Onboarding</p><p><blockquote><li>入职</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Ongoing monitoring</p><p><blockquote><li>持续监测</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Sterling has received at least $775 million in equity investment from investors including Goldman Sachs and The Greenblatt Trusts.</p><p><blockquote>英镑已从高盛和格林布拉特信托等投资者那里获得了至少 7.75 亿美元的股权投资。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Customer Acquisition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户获取</b></blockquote></p><p> The firm pursues large clients through a direct sales team approach organized by industry vertical and region.</p><p><blockquote>该公司通过按行业垂直和地区组织的直销团队方法来追求大客户。</blockquote></p><p> For the 12 months ended June 30, 2021, the firm's platform performed over 75 million searches for over 40,000 clients.</p><p><blockquote>在截至2021年6月30日的12个月中，该公司的平台为超过40,000个客户进行了超过7500万次搜索。</blockquote></p><p> Selling, G&amp;A expenses as a percentage of total revenue have dropped as revenues have fluctuated, as the figures below indicate:</p><p><blockquote>销售、G&amp;A费用占总收入的百分比随着收入的波动而下降，如下图所示：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <colgroup></colgroup>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Selling, G&amp;A</b></p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>销售、G&amp;A</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Expenses vs. Revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>费用与收入</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Percentage</p><p><blockquote><td>百分比</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> (Source)</p><p><blockquote>（来源）</blockquote></p><p> The Selling, G&amp;A efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Selling, G&amp;A spend, rebounded to 1.3x in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:</p><p><blockquote>销售、G&amp;A 效率率（定义为每 1 美元销售、G&amp;A 支出产生多少美元额外新收入）在最近的报告期内反弹至 1.3 倍，如下表所示：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <colgroup></colgroup>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Selling, G&amp;A</b></p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>销售、G&amp;A</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Efficiency Rate</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>效率率</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Multiple</p><p><blockquote><td>多个的</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.3</p><p><blockquote><td>1.3</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-0.4</p><p><blockquote><td>-0.4</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> (Source)</p><p><blockquote>（来源）</blockquote></p><p> The Rule of 40 is a software industry rule of thumb that says that as long as the combined revenue growth rate and EBITDA percentage rate equal or exceed 40%, the firm is on an acceptable growth/EBITDA trajectory.</p><p><blockquote>40法则是软件行业的一条经验法则，即只要收入增长率和EBITDA百分比等于或超过40%，公司就处于可接受的增长/EBITDA轨迹上。</blockquote></p><p> STER’s most recent calculation was 51% for the six months ended June 30, 2021, so the firm has performed well in this regard, per the table below:</p><p><blockquote>STER 的最新计算结果是截至 2021 年 6 月 30 日的六个月内为 51%，因此该公司在这方面表现良好，如下表所示：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <colgroup></colgroup>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Rule of 40</b></p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>40法则</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Calculation</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>计算</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Recent Rev. Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>近期修订版增长率%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>44%</p><p><blockquote><td>44%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>EBITDA %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>息税折旧摊销前利润百分比</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8%</p><p><blockquote><td>8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>总的</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>51%</p><p><blockquote><td>51%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> (Source)</p><p><blockquote>（来源）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market &amp; Competition</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场与竞争</b></blockquote></p><p> According to a 2021 marketresearch reportby The Insight Partners, the global employment screening market, one of the firm's focus areas, was an estimated $4.2 billion in 2020 and is forecast to reach $6.4 billion by 2028.</p><p><blockquote>根据Insight Partners 2021年的市场研究报告，该公司的重点领域之一全球就业筛选市场在2020年估计为42亿美元，预计到2028年将达到64亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> This represents a forecast CAGR of 5.5% from 2021 to 2028.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着2021年至2028年的预测CAGR为5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The main drivers for this expected growth are increased populations in urban areas resulting in greater job opportunities and employee demand and a growing incidence of application fraud or inflation.</p><p><blockquote>这一预期增长的主要驱动力是城市地区人口的增加，导致更多的就业机会和员工需求，以及申请欺诈或通货膨胀的发生率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Also, the number of applicants for each job opening has increased along with a larger number of contract, temporary and 'gig economy' workers.</p><p><blockquote>此外，随着合同工、临时工和“零工经济”工人数量的增加，每个职位空缺的申请人数也有所增加。</blockquote></p><p> Major competitive or other industry participants include:</p><p><blockquote>主要竞争或其他行业参与者包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>First Advantage</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>第一优势</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>HireRight</p><p><blockquote><li>雇佣权</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Accurate Background</p><p><blockquote><li>准确背景</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>ADP</p><p><blockquote><li>ADP</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cisive</p><p><blockquote><li>西西夫</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Checkr</p><p><blockquote><li>检查</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>DISA</p><p><blockquote><li>迪萨</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Triton</p><p><blockquote><li>海卫一</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Other smaller players</p><p><blockquote><li>其他较小的玩家</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> <b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p> Sterling’s recent financial results can be summarized as follows:</p><p><blockquote>Sterling 近期的财务业绩可概括如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Rebounding topline revenue growth</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>营收增长反弹</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Variable gross profit growth</p><p><blockquote><li>可变毛利增长</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Slightly reduced gross margin</p><p><blockquote><li>毛利率略有下降</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>A swing to operating profit and net income</p><p><blockquote><li>营业利润和净利润波动</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Growing cash flow from operations in 2021</p><p><blockquote><li>2021年经营现金流增长</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Below are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:</p><p><blockquote>以下是公司注册声明中的相关财务业绩：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <colgroup></colgroup>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Total Revenue</b></p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>总收入</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Total Revenue</p><p><blockquote><td>总收入</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>% Variance vs. Prior</p><p><blockquote><td>与先前相比的%方差</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 298,698,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$298,698,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>43.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>43.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 454,053,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$454,053,000</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>-8.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>-8.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 497,116,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$497,116,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr></tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Gross Profit (Loss)</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>毛利（亏损）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Gross Profit (Loss)</p><p><blockquote><td>毛利（亏损）</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>% Variance vs. Prior</p><p><blockquote><td>与先前相比的%方差</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 155,539,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$155,539,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>41.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>41.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 236,743,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$236,743,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-14.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-14.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 275,769,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$275,769,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr></tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Gross Margin</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>毛利率</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Gross Margin</p><p><blockquote><td>毛利率</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>52.07%</p><p><blockquote><td>52.07%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>52.14%</p><p><blockquote><td>52.14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>55.47%</p><p><blockquote><td>55.47%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr></tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Operating Profit (Loss)</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>营业溢利（亏损）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Operating Profit (Loss)</p><p><blockquote><td>营业溢利（亏损）</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Operating Margin</p><p><blockquote><td>营业利润率</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 23,204,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$23,204,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ (23,103,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(23,103,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-5.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>-5.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ (13,374,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(13,374,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr></tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Net Income (Loss)</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>净收入（亏损）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Net Income (Loss)</p><p><blockquote><td>净收入（亏损）</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 4,025,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$4,025,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ (52,293,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(52,293,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ (46,682,000)</p><p><blockquote><td>$(46,682,000)</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr></tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Cash Flow From Operations</b></p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td><b>经营现金流量</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Period</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>周期</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>Cash Flow From Operations</p><p><blockquote><td>经营现金流量</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Six Mos. Ended June 30, 2021</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>六个月。截至2021年6月30日</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 45,290,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$45,290,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2020</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2020</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 36,185,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$36,185,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>2019</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>2019</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$ 36,204,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$36,204,000</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr></tr>   <tr>    <td>(Glossary Of Terms)</p><p><blockquote><tr></tr><tr><td>（术语表）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> (Source)</p><p><blockquote>（来源）</blockquote></p><p> As of June 30, 2021, Sterling had $94.3 million in cash and $744.8 million in total liabilities.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日，斯特林拥有9430万美元现金和7.448亿美元总负债。</blockquote></p><p> Free cash flow during the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was $45 million.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日的12个月内，自由现金流为4500万美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Details</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO详情</b></blockquote></p><p> STER intends to sell 4.76 million shares and selling shareholders will offer 9.525 million shares of common stock at a proposed midpoint price of $21.00 per share for gross proceeds of approximately $300 million, not including the sale of customary underwriter options.</p><p><blockquote>STER 打算出售 476 万股股票，出售股东将以每股 21.00 美元的拟议中点价格发售 952.5 万股普通股，总收益约为 3 亿美元，不包括出售惯例承销商期权。</blockquote></p><p> No existing shareholders have indicated an interest to purchase shares at the IPO price.</p><p><blockquote>没有现有股东表示有兴趣以IPO价格购买股份。</blockquote></p><p> Assuming a successful IPO at the midpoint of the proposed price range, the company’s enterprise value at IPO (ex- underwriter options) would approximate $2.4 billion.</p><p><blockquote>假设在拟议价格范围的中点成功进行首次公开募股，公司在首次公开募股时的企业价值（不包括承销商期权）将约为 24 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Excluding effects of underwriter options and private placement shares or restricted stock, if any, the float to outstanding shares ratio will be approximately 15.2%. A figure under 10% is generally considered a ‘low float’ stock which can be subject to significant price volatility.</p><p><blockquote>撇除包销商购股权及私募股份或限制性股票（如有）的影响，流通股与流通股的比率将约为15.2%。低于 10% 的数字通常被认为是 “低流通量 ”股票，可能会受到大幅价格波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> Per the firm’s most recent regulatory filing, it plans to use the net proceeds as follows:</p><p><blockquote>根据该公司最新提交的监管文件，该公司计划将净收益用于以下用途：</blockquote></p><p>   We currently intend to use the net proceeds to us from this offering, together with cash on hand, to repay approximately $100.0 million outstanding under our Term loan. We intend to use the remainder, if any, of the net proceeds to us from this offering for general corporate purposes.  Management’s presentation of the company roadshow isavailable here.</p><p><blockquote>我们目前打算使用本次发行的净收益以及手头现金来偿还我们定期贷款下约 1 亿美元的未偿还款项。我们打算将本次发售所得款项净额的剩余部分（如有）用于一般公司用途。管理层对公司路演的介绍可在此处查看。</blockquote></p><p> Regarding outstanding legal proceedings, management said the firm is not a party to any legal proceedings that it believes would be material to its operations or financial condition.</p><p><blockquote>关于未决法律诉讼，管理层表示，该公司不是其认为对其运营或财务状况有重大影响的任何法律诉讼的一方。</blockquote></p><p> Listed bookrunners of the IPO are Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and other investment banks.</p><p><blockquote>此次IPO的上市账簿管理人包括高盛、摩根大通、摩根士丹利等投资银行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation Metrics</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值指标</b></blockquote></p><p> Below is a table of the firm’s relevant capitalization and valuation metrics at IPO, excluding the effects of underwriter options:</p><p><blockquote>下表列出了该公司首次公开募股时的相关资本和估值指标，不包括承销商期权的影响：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <colgroup></colgroup>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Measure [TTM]</b></p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>测量[TTM]</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Amount</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>数量</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Market Capitalization at IPO</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>首次公开发售时的市值</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$1,973,227,914</p><p><blockquote><td>$1,973,227,914</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Enterprise Value</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>企业价值</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$2,401,254,914</p><p><blockquote><td>$2,401,254,914</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Price / Sales</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>价格/销售</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3.62</p><p><blockquote><td>3.62</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>EV / Revenue</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>电动汽车/收入</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.41</p><p><blockquote><td>4.41</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>EV / EBITDA</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>首页 / EBITDA</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.06</p><p><blockquote><td>122.06</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Earnings Per Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股盈利</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-$0.08</p><p><blockquote><td>-$0.08</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Float To Outstanding Shares Ratio</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>流通股与流通股比率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Proposed IPO Midpoint Price per Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>建议IPO每股中点价格</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$21.00</p><p><blockquote><td>$21.00</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Net Free Cash Flow</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>净自由现金流量</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$44,998,000</p><p><blockquote><td>$44,998,000</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Free Cash Flow Yield Per Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股自由现金流收益率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.28%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.28%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revenue Growth Rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>收入增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>43.64%</p><p><blockquote><td>43.64%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>(Glossary Of Terms)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>（术语表）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> (Source)</p><p><blockquote>（来源）</blockquote></p><p> As a reference, a potential public comparable would be First Advantage(NASDAQ:FA); shown below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，潜在的公开可比股票是 First Advantage（纳斯达克股票代码：FA）；以下是其主要估值指标的比较：</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <colgroup></colgroup>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Metric</b></p><p><blockquote><table><colgroup></colgroup><tbody><tr><td><b>度量</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>First Advantage</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>第一优势</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Sterling Check</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>英镑支票</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>Variance</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>差异</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Price / Sales</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>价格/销售</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.76</p><p><blockquote><td>5.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3.62</p><p><blockquote><td>3.62</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-37.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>-37.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>EV / Revenue</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>电动汽车/收入</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.53</p><p><blockquote><td>6.53</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.41</p><p><blockquote><td>4.41</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-32.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>-32.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>EV / EBITDA</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>首页 / EBITDA</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23.41</p><p><blockquote><td>23.41</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.06</p><p><blockquote><td>122.06</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>421.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>421.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Earnings Per Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>每股盈利</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>$0.04</p><p><blockquote><td>$0.04</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-$0.08</p><p><blockquote><td>-$0.08</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-293.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-293.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revenue Growth Rate</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>收入增长率</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>43.64%</p><p><blockquote><td>43.64%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>127.89%</p><p><blockquote><td>127.89%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>(Glossary Of Terms)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>（术语表）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> (S-1/AandSeeking Alpha)</p><p><blockquote>（S-1/夜探阿尔法）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Commentary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>评论</b></blockquote></p><p> STER is going public to obtain investment to pay down some of its debt and for its corporate expansion initiatives.</p><p><blockquote>STER 将上市以获得投资，以偿还部分债务并用于公司扩张计划。</blockquote></p><p> The firm’s financials show rebounding topline revenue growth, uneven gross profit growth, a swing to operating profit and net income and growing cash flow from operations in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的财务数据显示，2021 年营收增长反弹，毛利润增长不均衡，营业利润和净利润出现波动，运营现金流不断增长。</blockquote></p><p> Free cash flow for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was an impressive $45 million.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年6月30日的12个月的自由现金流达到了令人印象深刻的4500万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Selling, G&amp;A expenses as a percentage of total revenue have trended lower as revenue has varied and its Selling, G&amp;A efficiency rate rebounded to 1.3x in the most recent six-month reporting period.</p><p><blockquote>随着收入的变化，销售、G&amp;A费用占总收入的百分比呈下降趋势，其销售、G&amp;A效率在最近六个月的报告期内反弹至1.3倍。</blockquote></p><p> The market opportunity for providing background checks and related services is large and expected to grow at a moderate CAGR Of 5.5% in the coming years, although the continued transition to a decentralized workforce may increase demand a bit above this estimate.</p><p><blockquote>提供背景调查和相关服务的市场机会很大，预计未来几年将以5.5%的适度复合年增长率增长，尽管向分散劳动力的持续过渡可能会增加略高于这一估计的需求。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 37.3% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.</p><p><blockquote>高盛是主承销商，该公司在过去 12 个月内牵头的 IPO 自 IPO 以来的平均回报率为 37.3%。这是期内所有主要承销商的中级表现。</blockquote></p><p> The general business cycle - when companies hire fewer workers during down economic periods, demand for the company’s services will decline.</p><p><blockquote>一般商业周期--当公司在经济低迷时期雇佣的工人减少时，对公司服务的需求就会下降。</blockquote></p><p> While Sterling is not immune to the ups and downs of the business cycle and potential future pandemic variant effects on economic activity, the firm has rebounded impressively and appears positioned to compete in a growing market.</p><p><blockquote>尽管英镑也不能幸免于商业周期的起伏以及未来大流行变体对经济活动的潜在影响，但该公司已经出现了令人印象深刻的反弹，似乎有能力在不断增长的市场上竞争。</blockquote></p><p> As for valuation, compared to First Advantage, which went public earlier in 2021 and performed since its debut, STER appears reasonably valued on a revenue multiple basis as the firm is growing revenue at a faster rate. STER is nearing EPS breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>至于估值，与 2021 年初上市并自首次亮相以来一直表现良好的 First Advantage 相比，STER 在收入倍数基础上的估值似乎合理，因为该公司的收入增长速度更快。STER 的每股收益接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> Given the company’s strong rebound after the 2020 pandemic period and reasonable IPO valuation, the IPO is worth a close look.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于该公司在 2020 年大流行期后的强劲反弹以及合理的 IPO 估值，此次 IPO 值得密切关注。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148130438","content_text":"(Sept 23) Sterling Check Corp. opens for trading at $27.1, up about 18% from IPO price.\nCompany & Technology\nNew York-based Sterling was founded to develop a full suite of background screening, verifications and ongoing monitoring services for businesses.\nManagement is headed by Chief Executive Officer Joshua Peirez, who has been with the firm since July 2018 and was previously president and COO of Dun & Bradstreet and held senior roles at Mastercard prior to that.\nThe company’s primary offering categories include:\n\nIdentity verification\nBackground screening\nCredential verifications\nOnboarding\nOngoing monitoring\n\nSterling has received at least $775 million in equity investment from investors including Goldman Sachs and The Greenblatt Trusts.\nCustomer Acquisition\nThe firm pursues large clients through a direct sales team approach organized by industry vertical and region.\nFor the 12 months ended June 30, 2021, the firm's platform performed over 75 million searches for over 40,000 clients.\nSelling, G&A expenses as a percentage of total revenue have dropped as revenues have fluctuated, as the figures below indicate:\n\n\n\n\nSelling, G&A\nExpenses vs. Revenue\n\n\nPeriod\nPercentage\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n22.8%\n\n\n2020\n27.0%\n\n\n2019\n29.6%\n\n\n\n(Source)\nThe Selling, G&A efficiency rate, defined as how many dollars of additional new revenue are generated by each dollar of Selling, G&A spend, rebounded to 1.3x in the most recent reporting period, as shown in the table below:\n\n\n\n\nSelling, G&A\nEfficiency Rate\n\n\nPeriod\nMultiple\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n1.3\n\n\n2020\n-0.4\n\n\n\n(Source)\nThe Rule of 40 is a software industry rule of thumb that says that as long as the combined revenue growth rate and EBITDA percentage rate equal or exceed 40%, the firm is on an acceptable growth/EBITDA trajectory.\nSTER’s most recent calculation was 51% for the six months ended June 30, 2021, so the firm has performed well in this regard, per the table below:\n\n\n\n\nRule of 40\nCalculation\n\n\nRecent Rev. Growth %\n44%\n\n\nEBITDA %\n8%\n\n\nTotal\n51%\n\n\n\n(Source)\nMarket & Competition\nAccording to a 2021 marketresearch reportby The Insight Partners, the global employment screening market, one of the firm's focus areas, was an estimated $4.2 billion in 2020 and is forecast to reach $6.4 billion by 2028.\nThis represents a forecast CAGR of 5.5% from 2021 to 2028.\nThe main drivers for this expected growth are increased populations in urban areas resulting in greater job opportunities and employee demand and a growing incidence of application fraud or inflation.\nAlso, the number of applicants for each job opening has increased along with a larger number of contract, temporary and 'gig economy' workers.\nMajor competitive or other industry participants include:\n\nFirst Advantage\nHireRight\nAccurate Background\nADP\nCisive\nCheckr\nDISA\nTriton\nOther smaller players\n\nFinancial Performance\nSterling’s recent financial results can be summarized as follows:\n\nRebounding topline revenue growth\nVariable gross profit growth\nSlightly reduced gross margin\nA swing to operating profit and net income\nGrowing cash flow from operations in 2021\n\nBelow are relevant financial results derived from the firm’s registration statement:\n\n\n\n\nTotal Revenue\n\n\nPeriod\nTotal Revenue\n% Variance vs. Prior\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n$ 298,698,000\n43.6%\n\n\n2020\n$ 454,053,000\n-8.7%\n\n\n2019\n$ 497,116,000\n\n\n\nGross Profit (Loss)\n\n\nPeriod\nGross Profit (Loss)\n% Variance vs. Prior\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n$ 155,539,000\n41.9%\n\n\n2020\n$ 236,743,000\n-14.2%\n\n\n2019\n$ 275,769,000\n\n\n\nGross Margin\n\n\nPeriod\nGross Margin\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n52.07%\n\n\n2020\n52.14%\n\n\n2019\n55.47%\n\n\n\nOperating Profit (Loss)\n\n\nPeriod\nOperating Profit (Loss)\nOperating Margin\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n$ 23,204,000\n7.8%\n\n\n2020\n$ (23,103,000)\n-5.1%\n\n\n2019\n$ (13,374,000)\n-2.7%\n\n\n\nNet Income (Loss)\n\n\nPeriod\nNet Income (Loss)\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n$ 4,025,000\n\n\n2020\n$ (52,293,000)\n\n\n2019\n$ (46,682,000)\n\n\n\nCash Flow From Operations\n\n\nPeriod\nCash Flow From Operations\n\n\nSix Mos. Ended June 30, 2021\n$ 45,290,000\n\n\n2020\n$ 36,185,000\n\n\n2019\n$ 36,204,000\n\n\n\n(Glossary Of Terms)\n\n\n\n(Source)\nAs of June 30, 2021, Sterling had $94.3 million in cash and $744.8 million in total liabilities.\nFree cash flow during the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was $45 million.\nIPO Details\nSTER intends to sell 4.76 million shares and selling shareholders will offer 9.525 million shares of common stock at a proposed midpoint price of $21.00 per share for gross proceeds of approximately $300 million, not including the sale of customary underwriter options.\nNo existing shareholders have indicated an interest to purchase shares at the IPO price.\nAssuming a successful IPO at the midpoint of the proposed price range, the company’s enterprise value at IPO (ex- underwriter options) would approximate $2.4 billion.\nExcluding effects of underwriter options and private placement shares or restricted stock, if any, the float to outstanding shares ratio will be approximately 15.2%. A figure under 10% is generally considered a ‘low float’ stock which can be subject to significant price volatility.\nPer the firm’s most recent regulatory filing, it plans to use the net proceeds as follows:\n\n We currently intend to use the net proceeds to us from this offering, together with cash on hand, to repay approximately $100.0 million outstanding under our Term loan. We intend to use the remainder, if any, of the net proceeds to us from this offering for general corporate purposes.\n\nManagement’s presentation of the company roadshow isavailable here.\nRegarding outstanding legal proceedings, management said the firm is not a party to any legal proceedings that it believes would be material to its operations or financial condition.\nListed bookrunners of the IPO are Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley and other investment banks.\nValuation Metrics\nBelow is a table of the firm’s relevant capitalization and valuation metrics at IPO, excluding the effects of underwriter options:\n\n\n\n\nMeasure [TTM]\nAmount\n\n\nMarket Capitalization at IPO\n$1,973,227,914\n\n\nEnterprise Value\n$2,401,254,914\n\n\nPrice / Sales\n3.62\n\n\nEV / Revenue\n4.41\n\n\nEV / EBITDA\n122.06\n\n\nEarnings Per Share\n-$0.08\n\n\nFloat To Outstanding Shares Ratio\n15.20%\n\n\nProposed IPO Midpoint Price per Share\n$21.00\n\n\nNet Free Cash Flow\n$44,998,000\n\n\nFree Cash Flow Yield Per Share\n2.28%\n\n\nRevenue Growth Rate\n43.64%\n\n\n(Glossary Of Terms)\n\n\n\n(Source)\nAs a reference, a potential public comparable would be First Advantage(NASDAQ:FA); shown below is a comparison of their primary valuation metrics:\n\n\n\n\nMetric\nFirst Advantage\nSterling Check\nVariance\n\n\nPrice / Sales\n5.76\n3.62\n-37.1%\n\n\nEV / Revenue\n6.53\n4.41\n-32.5%\n\n\nEV / EBITDA\n23.41\n122.06\n421.4%\n\n\nEarnings Per Share\n$0.04\n-$0.08\n-293.0%\n\n\nRevenue Growth Rate\n19.2%\n43.64%\n127.89%\n\n\n(Glossary Of Terms)\n\n\n\n(S-1/AandSeeking Alpha)\nCommentary\nSTER is going public to obtain investment to pay down some of its debt and for its corporate expansion initiatives.\nThe firm’s financials show rebounding topline revenue growth, uneven gross profit growth, a swing to operating profit and net income and growing cash flow from operations in 2021.\nFree cash flow for the twelve months ended June 30, 2021, was an impressive $45 million.\nSelling, G&A expenses as a percentage of total revenue have trended lower as revenue has varied and its Selling, G&A efficiency rate rebounded to 1.3x in the most recent six-month reporting period.\nThe market opportunity for providing background checks and related services is large and expected to grow at a moderate CAGR Of 5.5% in the coming years, although the continued transition to a decentralized workforce may increase demand a bit above this estimate.\nGoldman Sachs is the lead left underwriter and IPOs led by the firm over the last 12-month period have generated an average return of 37.3% since their IPO. This is a mid-tier performance for all major underwriters during the period.\nThe general business cycle - when companies hire fewer workers during down economic periods, demand for the company’s services will decline.\nWhile Sterling is not immune to the ups and downs of the business cycle and potential future pandemic variant effects on economic activity, the firm has rebounded impressively and appears positioned to compete in a growing market.\nAs for valuation, compared to First Advantage, which went public earlier in 2021 and performed since its debut, STER appears reasonably valued on a revenue multiple basis as the firm is growing revenue at a faster rate. STER is nearing EPS breakeven.\nGiven the company’s strong rebound after the 2020 pandemic period and reasonable IPO valuation, the IPO is worth a close look.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STER":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3117,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860665182,"gmtCreate":1632177468146,"gmtModify":1632802380792,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Fed got no intention to tank the market. Most likely business as normal","listText":"Fed got no intention to tank the market. Most likely business as normal","text":"Fed got no intention to tank the market. Most likely business as normal","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860665182","repostId":"1196172424","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196172424","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632105381,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1196172424?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-20 10:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The One Indicator That Has Wall Street Biting Its Nails<blockquote>让华尔街咬紧牙关的一个指标</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196172424","media":"Barrons","summary":"The stock market dropped because there’s something scarier than taxes, tapers, and contagion.","content":"<p>Wall Street has found something scarier than tapering,axes,and contagion. It’s called the 50-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街发现了比缩减规模、斧头和传染更可怕的东西。它被称为 50 天移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> The predictions of impending doom from Wall Street’s talking heads continued this past week. The reasons for a pullback are many: The stock market has rallied for too long and has gone up too smoothly, the Federal Reserve is about to remove the bond buying that has helped prop markets up, taxes are ready to rise, economic data are slowing. None of it really left a mark.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一周里，华尔街的谈话者们继续预测厄运即将到来。回调的原因有很多：股市反弹时间太长，上涨太平稳，美联储即将取消帮助支撑市场的债券购买，税收准备上升，经济数据正在放缓。没有一个真正留下痕迹。</blockquote></p><p> But then the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;dropped 0.6%, to 4432.99, over the week, while the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;fell 0.1%, to 34,584.88, and the&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;slumped 0.5%, to 15,043.97. For the S&amp;P 500, it was the first close since June 18 below its 50-day moving average—a technical measure of the previous 50 days’ closes that often ends up acting as support or resistance and that currently sits at 4436.35. For traders, it was very frightening.</p><p><blockquote>但标普500指数本周下跌 0.6%，至 4432.99 点，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 0.1%，至 34,584.88 点，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 0.5%，至 15,043.97 点。对于标普500来说，这是自 6 月 18 日以来首次收盘价低于 50 日移动平均线--50 日移动平均线是前 50 日收盘价的技术指标，通常最终会成为支撑位或阻力位，目前的收盘价为 4436.35。对于交易者来说，这是非常可怕的。</blockquote></p><p> That the drop also occurred on options expiration day—when options bets expire and are rolled over, typically a volatile day—also makes the moment fraught. Since May, options expiration has been the time for the S&amp;P 500 to make a quick test of its 50-day moving average before a bounce higher. And when I say quick, I mean quick, as it usually took the index a day, maybe two, to rebound.</p><p><blockquote>下跌也发生在期权到期日（期权赌注到期并展期，通常是动荡的一天），这也使得这一时刻充满了担忧。自5月份以来，期权到期是标普500在反弹走高之前快速测试其50天移动平均线的时候。当我说快速时，我的意思是快速，因为指数通常需要一天，也许两天才能反弹。</blockquote></p><p> “The 50-Day MA discussion has been pounded into our heads with every drawdown,” writes Frank Cappelleri, desk strategist at Instinet. “And while we may be sick of hearing about it, the dip buying around the line has been a real phenomenon.”</p><p><blockquote>“Instinet 的案头策略师弗兰克-卡佩莱里（Frank Cappelleri）写道：”随着每一次撤资，关于 50 天均线的讨论都被冲进了我们的脑海。“虽然我们可能已经听腻了，但在线附近逢低买入是一种真实的现象”。</blockquote></p><p> This time has a different feel to it. The S&amp;P 500’s sojourn near the 50-day has been longer, notes Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at Bay Crest Partners. It’s been sitting near it for about six trading days now, without a big drop or big bounce. “The current set-up looks a bit more like a consolidation on the 50 DMA, as opposed to the prior quick ‘V-shaped’ dips,” Krinsky writes. “What we are saying is that the current way in which we got here feels a bit different than the last four to five times.”</p><p><blockquote>这次有了不同的感觉。Bay Crest Partners 首席市场技术员 Jonathan Krinsky 指出，标普500在 50 天附近的停留时间更长。它已经在附近徘徊了大约六个交易日，没有出现大跌或大反弹。“克林斯基写道：”目前的形态看起来更像是50日均线的盘整，而不是之前的快速'V型'下跌。“我们想说的是，我们现在来到这里的方式感觉与过去四五次有所不同”。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Krinsky acknowledges that one close below the 50-day isn’t enough to panic. That’s because the S&amp;P 500 has now gone 218 days without two closes below the average, the second-longest streak since 1990. We won’t know if that streak breaks until the end of trading on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，克林斯基承认，收盘价低于 50 日均线并不足以引起恐慌。这是因为标普500已经有 218 天没有两次收盘价低于平均水平，这是自 1990 年以来第二长的连续收盘价。我们要到周一交易结束时才能知道这一连胜纪录是否会被打破。</blockquote></p><p> The market has plenty of excuses to break the 50-day, if it’s so inclined. Maybe Evergrande (ticker: 3333.Hong Kong), the troubled Chinese property developer, will prove to be a Lehman moment and bring the world’s markets down with it. Maybe the Fed will surprise everyone and start tapering this coming week. Maybe something is lurking out there like the Baba Yaga of the old fairy tales, and maybe it looks a lot like Keanu Reeves.</p><p><blockquote>如果市场愿意的话，它有很多理由突破 50 天大关。也许陷入困境的中国房地产开发商恒大（股票代码：3333.Hong）将成为雷曼时刻，并随之拖累世界市场。也许美联储会让所有人大吃一惊，并在下周开始缩减规模。也许有什么东西潜伏在那里，就像古老童话故事中的芭芭雅嘎，也许它看起来很像山谬·里维。</blockquote></p><p> But perhaps all the September weakness and worry are a good thing, setting the market up for its next run. “The ACWI is oversold again, and sentiment is not too optimistic,” writes Ned Davis Research’s Tim Hayes, commenting on the MSCI All-Country World Index. “The market’s resilience in the face of the negative September seasonality could be the preview of a bullish response to seasonal tendencies that turn favorable in the fourth quarter.”</p><p><blockquote>但也许九月份所有的疲软和担忧都是一件好事，为市场的下一次上涨做好了准备。“内德-戴维斯研究公司（Ned Davis Research）的蒂姆-海耶斯（Tim Hayes）在评论摩根士丹利资本国际所有国家世界指数时写道：”ACWI 再次超卖，市场情绪也不太乐观。“面对 9 月份的负季节性，市场的韧性可能是对第四季度有利的季节性趋势做出看涨反应的预演”。</blockquote></p><p> We just have to get there first.</p><p><blockquote>我们得先到那里。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The One Indicator That Has Wall Street Biting Its Nails<blockquote>让华尔街咬紧牙关的一个指标</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe One Indicator That Has Wall Street Biting Its Nails<blockquote>让华尔街咬紧牙关的一个指标</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-20 10:36</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Wall Street has found something scarier than tapering,axes,and contagion. It’s called the 50-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街发现了比缩减规模、斧头和传染更可怕的东西。它被称为 50 天移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> The predictions of impending doom from Wall Street’s talking heads continued this past week. The reasons for a pullback are many: The stock market has rallied for too long and has gone up too smoothly, the Federal Reserve is about to remove the bond buying that has helped prop markets up, taxes are ready to rise, economic data are slowing. None of it really left a mark.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一周里，华尔街的谈话者们继续预测厄运即将到来。回调的原因有很多：股市反弹时间太长，上涨太平稳，美联储即将取消帮助支撑市场的债券购买，税收准备上升，经济数据正在放缓。没有一个真正留下痕迹。</blockquote></p><p> But then the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;dropped 0.6%, to 4432.99, over the week, while the&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;fell 0.1%, to 34,584.88, and the&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;slumped 0.5%, to 15,043.97. For the S&amp;P 500, it was the first close since June 18 below its 50-day moving average—a technical measure of the previous 50 days’ closes that often ends up acting as support or resistance and that currently sits at 4436.35. For traders, it was very frightening.</p><p><blockquote>但标普500指数本周下跌 0.6%，至 4432.99 点，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 0.1%，至 34,584.88 点，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 0.5%，至 15,043.97 点。对于标普500来说，这是自 6 月 18 日以来首次收盘价低于 50 日移动平均线--50 日移动平均线是前 50 日收盘价的技术指标，通常最终会成为支撑位或阻力位，目前的收盘价为 4436.35。对于交易者来说，这是非常可怕的。</blockquote></p><p> That the drop also occurred on options expiration day—when options bets expire and are rolled over, typically a volatile day—also makes the moment fraught. Since May, options expiration has been the time for the S&amp;P 500 to make a quick test of its 50-day moving average before a bounce higher. And when I say quick, I mean quick, as it usually took the index a day, maybe two, to rebound.</p><p><blockquote>下跌也发生在期权到期日（期权赌注到期并展期，通常是动荡的一天），这也使得这一时刻充满了担忧。自5月份以来，期权到期是标普500在反弹走高之前快速测试其50天移动平均线的时候。当我说快速时，我的意思是快速，因为指数通常需要一天，也许两天才能反弹。</blockquote></p><p> “The 50-Day MA discussion has been pounded into our heads with every drawdown,” writes Frank Cappelleri, desk strategist at Instinet. “And while we may be sick of hearing about it, the dip buying around the line has been a real phenomenon.”</p><p><blockquote>“Instinet 的案头策略师弗兰克-卡佩莱里（Frank Cappelleri）写道：”随着每一次撤资，关于 50 天均线的讨论都被冲进了我们的脑海。“虽然我们可能已经听腻了，但在线附近逢低买入是一种真实的现象”。</blockquote></p><p> This time has a different feel to it. The S&amp;P 500’s sojourn near the 50-day has been longer, notes Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at Bay Crest Partners. It’s been sitting near it for about six trading days now, without a big drop or big bounce. “The current set-up looks a bit more like a consolidation on the 50 DMA, as opposed to the prior quick ‘V-shaped’ dips,” Krinsky writes. “What we are saying is that the current way in which we got here feels a bit different than the last four to five times.”</p><p><blockquote>这次有了不同的感觉。Bay Crest Partners 首席市场技术员 Jonathan Krinsky 指出，标普500在 50 天附近的停留时间更长。它已经在附近徘徊了大约六个交易日，没有出现大跌或大反弹。“克林斯基写道：”目前的形态看起来更像是50日均线的盘整，而不是之前的快速'V型'下跌。“我们想说的是，我们现在来到这里的方式感觉与过去四五次有所不同”。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Krinsky acknowledges that one close below the 50-day isn’t enough to panic. That’s because the S&amp;P 500 has now gone 218 days without two closes below the average, the second-longest streak since 1990. We won’t know if that streak breaks until the end of trading on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>不过，克林斯基承认，收盘价低于 50 日均线并不足以引起恐慌。这是因为标普500已经有 218 天没有两次收盘价低于平均水平，这是自 1990 年以来第二长的连续收盘价。我们要到周一交易结束时才能知道这一连胜纪录是否会被打破。</blockquote></p><p> The market has plenty of excuses to break the 50-day, if it’s so inclined. Maybe Evergrande (ticker: 3333.Hong Kong), the troubled Chinese property developer, will prove to be a Lehman moment and bring the world’s markets down with it. Maybe the Fed will surprise everyone and start tapering this coming week. Maybe something is lurking out there like the Baba Yaga of the old fairy tales, and maybe it looks a lot like Keanu Reeves.</p><p><blockquote>如果市场愿意的话，它有很多理由突破 50 天大关。也许陷入困境的中国房地产开发商恒大（股票代码：3333.Hong）将成为雷曼时刻，并随之拖累世界市场。也许美联储会让所有人大吃一惊，并在下周开始缩减规模。也许有什么东西潜伏在那里，就像古老童话故事中的芭芭雅嘎，也许它看起来很像山谬·里维。</blockquote></p><p> But perhaps all the September weakness and worry are a good thing, setting the market up for its next run. “The ACWI is oversold again, and sentiment is not too optimistic,” writes Ned Davis Research’s Tim Hayes, commenting on the MSCI All-Country World Index. “The market’s resilience in the face of the negative September seasonality could be the preview of a bullish response to seasonal tendencies that turn favorable in the fourth quarter.”</p><p><blockquote>但也许九月份所有的疲软和担忧都是一件好事，为市场的下一次上涨做好了准备。“内德-戴维斯研究公司（Ned Davis Research）的蒂姆-海耶斯（Tim Hayes）在评论摩根士丹利资本国际所有国家世界指数时写道：”ACWI 再次超卖，市场情绪也不太乐观。“面对 9 月份的负季节性，市场的韧性可能是对第四季度有利的季节性趋势做出看涨反应的预演”。</blockquote></p><p> We just have to get there first.</p><p><blockquote>我们得先到那里。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-falls-because-theres-something-scarier-than-taxes-tapers-and-contagion-51631925838?mod=hp_DAY_7\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-falls-because-theres-something-scarier-than-taxes-tapers-and-contagion-51631925838?mod=hp_DAY_7","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196172424","content_text":"Wall Street has found something scarier than tapering,axes,and contagion. It’s called the 50-day moving average.\nThe predictions of impending doom from Wall Street’s talking heads continued this past week. The reasons for a pullback are many: The stock market has rallied for too long and has gone up too smoothly, the Federal Reserve is about to remove the bond buying that has helped prop markets up, taxes are ready to rise, economic data are slowing. None of it really left a mark.\nBut then the S&P 500 dropped 0.6%, to 4432.99, over the week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1%, to 34,584.88, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 0.5%, to 15,043.97. For the S&P 500, it was the first close since June 18 below its 50-day moving average—a technical measure of the previous 50 days’ closes that often ends up acting as support or resistance and that currently sits at 4436.35. For traders, it was very frightening.\nThat the drop also occurred on options expiration day—when options bets expire and are rolled over, typically a volatile day—also makes the moment fraught. Since May, options expiration has been the time for the S&P 500 to make a quick test of its 50-day moving average before a bounce higher. And when I say quick, I mean quick, as it usually took the index a day, maybe two, to rebound.\n“The 50-Day MA discussion has been pounded into our heads with every drawdown,” writes Frank Cappelleri, desk strategist at Instinet. “And while we may be sick of hearing about it, the dip buying around the line has been a real phenomenon.”\nThis time has a different feel to it. The S&P 500’s sojourn near the 50-day has been longer, notes Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at Bay Crest Partners. It’s been sitting near it for about six trading days now, without a big drop or big bounce. “The current set-up looks a bit more like a consolidation on the 50 DMA, as opposed to the prior quick ‘V-shaped’ dips,” Krinsky writes. “What we are saying is that the current way in which we got here feels a bit different than the last four to five times.”\nStill, Krinsky acknowledges that one close below the 50-day isn’t enough to panic. That’s because the S&P 500 has now gone 218 days without two closes below the average, the second-longest streak since 1990. We won’t know if that streak breaks until the end of trading on Monday.\nThe market has plenty of excuses to break the 50-day, if it’s so inclined. Maybe Evergrande (ticker: 3333.Hong Kong), the troubled Chinese property developer, will prove to be a Lehman moment and bring the world’s markets down with it. Maybe the Fed will surprise everyone and start tapering this coming week. Maybe something is lurking out there like the Baba Yaga of the old fairy tales, and maybe it looks a lot like Keanu Reeves.\nBut perhaps all the September weakness and worry are a good thing, setting the market up for its next run. “The ACWI is oversold again, and sentiment is not too optimistic,” writes Ned Davis Research’s Tim Hayes, commenting on the MSCI All-Country World Index. “The market’s resilience in the face of the negative September seasonality could be the preview of a bullish response to seasonal tendencies that turn favorable in the fourth quarter.”\nWe just have to get there first.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":697,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":887811874,"gmtCreate":1632016312198,"gmtModify":1632803343679,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Is there a so called “active ETF”?Should it be either an active managed funds or just a thematic ETF (passive)?","listText":"Is there a so called “active ETF”?Should it be either an active managed funds or just a thematic ETF (passive)?","text":"Is there a so called “active ETF”?Should it be either an active managed funds or just a thematic ETF (passive)?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/887811874","repostId":"2167287516","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":886177369,"gmtCreate":1631578054751,"gmtModify":1631889583177,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Consolidation phase - the strong will grow stronger","listText":"Consolidation phase - the strong will grow stronger","text":"Consolidation phase - the strong will grow stronger","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886177369","repostId":"1108674949","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108674949","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631540940,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1108674949?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-13 21:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV Stocks dipped in Monday morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股票在周一早盘交易中下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108674949","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV Stocks dipped in Monday morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto fell between 2% and 3%.China has vowed to consolidate the country’s electric vehicle industry after a decade-long nurturing of the sector led to the emergence of too many players, some of which are barely viable.“Looking forward, EV companies should grow bigger and stronger. We have too many EV firms on the market right now,” Xiao Yaqing, the minister for industry and information technology, said at a press conference ","content":"<p>EV Stocks dipped in Monday morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 2% and 3%.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股在周一早盘交易中下跌。特斯拉、蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车和理想汽车下跌2%至3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e3c5a4dc4224ac668393170a00547fb\" tg-width=\"367\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> China has vowed to consolidate the country’s electric vehicle industry after a decade-long nurturing of the sector led to the emergence of too many players, some of which are barely viable.</p><p><blockquote>中国誓言要巩固该国的电动汽车行业，因为经过十年的培育，该行业出现了太多的参与者，其中一些参与者几乎无法生存。</blockquote></p><p> “Looking forward, EV companies should grow bigger and stronger. We have too many EV firms on the market right now,” Xiao Yaqing, the minister for industry and information technology, said at a press conference in Beijing on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“展望未来，电动汽车企业应该做大做强。目前市场上有太多电动汽车企业，”工业和信息化部部长肖亚庆周一在北京举行的新闻发布会上说。</blockquote></p><p> “The firms are mostly small and scattered,” he said. “The role of the market should be fully utilized and we encourage merger and restructuring efforts in the EV sector to further increase market concentration.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”这些公司大多规模小且分散。“要充分发挥市场作用，鼓励电动汽车行业兼并重组，进一步提高市场集中度。”</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle makers fell Monday.Xpeng Inc.&nbsp;declined 2.3% in Hong Kong trading, and&nbsp;Li Auto Inc.&nbsp;dropped 1.4%. On mainland exchanges,BYD Co.&nbsp;slid 1.8% and&nbsp;BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Co.&nbsp;slumped 4.6%.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商股价周一下跌。小鹏汽车在香港交易中下跌 2.3%，理想汽车汽车下跌 1.4%。在内地交易所，比亚迪股价下跌1.8%，北汽蓝谷新能源科技股份有限公司下跌4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> China, which built its electric-car industry into the world’s biggest, is putting a new focus on consolidating the ranks of EV makers which has ballooned to about 300. The government is drafting measures to rein in overcapacity in the sector and channel resources to a number of key production hubs, Bloomberg News&nbsp;reported&nbsp;last week, citing people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>中国的电动汽车产业已成为世界上最大的电动汽车产业，现在正将新的重点放在巩固电动汽车制造商的队伍上，目前电动汽车制造商的数量已膨胀至约 300 家。彭博新闻社上周援引知情人士的话报道称，政府正在起草措施，以控制该行业的产能过剩，并将资源输送到一些关键的生产中心。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators are considering setting a minimum production capacity utilization rate for the industry, and provinces that aren’t meeting it won’t be allowed to approve new projects until surplus capacity comes online, Bloomberg reported.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，监管机构正在考虑为该行业设定最低产能利用率，未达到最低产能利用率的省份将不得批准新项目，直到过剩产能投入使用。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is competitive in China, but a consolidated domestic sector could pose a new challenge for the high-profile electric vehicle company.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在中国具有竞争力，但国内行业的整合可能会给这家备受瞩目的电动汽车公司带来新的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla announced that it is going to increase the price of its Model Y Performance car in China by $1,552. According to the report announced on the Chinese microblogging website Weibo, the new price of Model Y will be RMB 387,900.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉宣布将Model Y高性能车在华售价上调1552美元。根据中国微博网站微博上公布的报道，Model Y的新售价将为人民币38.79万元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV Stocks dipped in Monday morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股票在周一早盘交易中下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV Stocks dipped in Monday morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股票在周一早盘交易中下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-13 21:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>EV Stocks dipped in Monday morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 2% and 3%.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股在周一早盘交易中下跌。特斯拉、蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车和理想汽车下跌2%至3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e3c5a4dc4224ac668393170a00547fb\" tg-width=\"367\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> China has vowed to consolidate the country’s electric vehicle industry after a decade-long nurturing of the sector led to the emergence of too many players, some of which are barely viable.</p><p><blockquote>中国誓言要巩固该国的电动汽车行业，因为经过十年的培育，该行业出现了太多的参与者，其中一些参与者几乎无法生存。</blockquote></p><p> “Looking forward, EV companies should grow bigger and stronger. We have too many EV firms on the market right now,” Xiao Yaqing, the minister for industry and information technology, said at a press conference in Beijing on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“展望未来，电动汽车企业应该做大做强。目前市场上有太多电动汽车企业，”工业和信息化部部长肖亚庆周一在北京举行的新闻发布会上说。</blockquote></p><p> “The firms are mostly small and scattered,” he said. “The role of the market should be fully utilized and we encourage merger and restructuring efforts in the EV sector to further increase market concentration.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”这些公司大多规模小且分散。“要充分发挥市场作用，鼓励电动汽车行业兼并重组，进一步提高市场集中度。”</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle makers fell Monday.Xpeng Inc.&nbsp;declined 2.3% in Hong Kong trading, and&nbsp;Li Auto Inc.&nbsp;dropped 1.4%. On mainland exchanges,BYD Co.&nbsp;slid 1.8% and&nbsp;BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Co.&nbsp;slumped 4.6%.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商股价周一下跌。小鹏汽车在香港交易中下跌 2.3%，理想汽车汽车下跌 1.4%。在内地交易所，比亚迪股价下跌1.8%，北汽蓝谷新能源科技股份有限公司下跌4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> China, which built its electric-car industry into the world’s biggest, is putting a new focus on consolidating the ranks of EV makers which has ballooned to about 300. The government is drafting measures to rein in overcapacity in the sector and channel resources to a number of key production hubs, Bloomberg News&nbsp;reported&nbsp;last week, citing people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>中国的电动汽车产业已成为世界上最大的电动汽车产业，现在正将新的重点放在巩固电动汽车制造商的队伍上，目前电动汽车制造商的数量已膨胀至约 300 家。彭博新闻社上周援引知情人士的话报道称，政府正在起草措施，以控制该行业的产能过剩，并将资源输送到一些关键的生产中心。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators are considering setting a minimum production capacity utilization rate for the industry, and provinces that aren’t meeting it won’t be allowed to approve new projects until surplus capacity comes online, Bloomberg reported.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，监管机构正在考虑为该行业设定最低产能利用率，未达到最低产能利用率的省份将不得批准新项目，直到过剩产能投入使用。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is competitive in China, but a consolidated domestic sector could pose a new challenge for the high-profile electric vehicle company.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在中国具有竞争力，但国内行业的整合可能会给这家备受瞩目的电动汽车公司带来新的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla announced that it is going to increase the price of its Model Y Performance car in China by $1,552. According to the report announced on the Chinese microblogging website Weibo, the new price of Model Y will be RMB 387,900.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉宣布将Model Y高性能车在华售价上调1552美元。根据中国微博网站微博上公布的报道，Model Y的新售价将为人民币38.79万元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏集团","NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108674949","content_text":"EV Stocks dipped in Monday morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto fell between 2% and 3%.\n\nChina has vowed to consolidate the country’s electric vehicle industry after a decade-long nurturing of the sector led to the emergence of too many players, some of which are barely viable.\n“Looking forward, EV companies should grow bigger and stronger. We have too many EV firms on the market right now,” Xiao Yaqing, the minister for industry and information technology, said at a press conference in Beijing on Monday.\n“The firms are mostly small and scattered,” he said. “The role of the market should be fully utilized and we encourage merger and restructuring efforts in the EV sector to further increase market concentration.”\nShares of Chinese electric-vehicle makers fell Monday.Xpeng Inc. declined 2.3% in Hong Kong trading, and Li Auto Inc. dropped 1.4%. On mainland exchanges,BYD Co. slid 1.8% and BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Co. slumped 4.6%.\nChina, which built its electric-car industry into the world’s biggest, is putting a new focus on consolidating the ranks of EV makers which has ballooned to about 300. The government is drafting measures to rein in overcapacity in the sector and channel resources to a number of key production hubs, Bloomberg News reported last week, citing people familiar with the matter.\nRegulators are considering setting a minimum production capacity utilization rate for the industry, and provinces that aren’t meeting it won’t be allowed to approve new projects until surplus capacity comes online, Bloomberg reported.\nTesla is competitive in China, but a consolidated domestic sector could pose a new challenge for the high-profile electric vehicle company.\nTesla announced that it is going to increase the price of its Model Y Performance car in China by $1,552. According to the report announced on the Chinese microblogging website Weibo, the new price of Model Y will be RMB 387,900.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"LI":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817490148,"gmtCreate":1630978676084,"gmtModify":1631889583190,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"So the conclusion is rotate the funds from growth stocks to value, right?","listText":"So the conclusion is rotate the funds from growth stocks to value, right?","text":"So the conclusion is rotate the funds from growth stocks to value, right?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817490148","repostId":"1186375251","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186375251","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630909435,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1186375251?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 14:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点投资的 3 条黄金法则</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186375251","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMarkets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correcti","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Markets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.</li>  <li>As markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.</li>  <li>What should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?</li>  <li>In this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5f0c9f1aacfbc6d8c78d0e84da5fc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>phive2015/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场每周继续创下历史新高，并且在 200 多个交易日中没有出现明显的调整。</li><li>随着市场反弹，许多投资者开始固步自封，而处于历史高点的投资决策实际上比以往任何时候都更加重要。</li><li>在当今的市场上，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格抛售，还是今天买入仍然能获得丰厚的回报？</li><li>在这篇文章中，我将分享我关于如何在今天这样的历史高点进行投资的三条黄金法则。这些信息对你未来在市场上创造财富非常有价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>phive2015/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.</p><p><blockquote>2021年股市一路狂飙。8月底，标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）年初至今上涨20.4%。有趣的是，该指数一直在非常狭窄的上涨区间内交易，并且在208个交易日中没有出现5%的修正。虽然大多数投资者并不认为这是一种异常现象，但实际上却是。这两种事件在股市历史上只发生过7次。我们显然生活在一个不正常的时代。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ccc72065c84083443d6be7f03482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.</p><p><blockquote>每天仔细考虑你所做的投资决策是很重要的。最重要的是，所有的购买或销售都会影响你未来在市场上的财富积累。</blockquote></p><p> However, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在像今天这样的极端反弹期间，反思你的投资决策更加重要。问问那些在互联网泡沫期间承担高风险或在 Covid-19 崩盘期间恐慌性抛售的投资者。这无疑对他们的长期回报产生了巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> The importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.</p><p><blockquote>今天的投资决策对你的长期回报很重要，这就是为什么我选择写我关于如何在历史高点投资的三条黄金法则。你应该如何对待今天的市场，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格卖出并等待调整发生，还是在这些水平买入时仍然能产生丰厚的回报？这篇文章将提供这些百万美元问题的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don't get caught by greediness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要被贪婪抓住</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从最重要的规则开始。避免贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&amp;P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通的数据，在过去的20年里，投资者的平均年回报率仅为2.9%。因此，它们的表现明显逊于一般市场，因为标普500在此期间的年回报率为 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者表现不佳的最重要原因是什么？情感人类行为。</blockquote></p><p> The average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.</p><p><blockquote>普通投资者受到媒体头条、股价变动和其他投资者行为的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&amp;P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们到达了一个极度看涨的股市环境。上个财报季是股市历史上最伟大的财报季之一。标普500每股收益同比增长 94.5%，86.1% 的成分股超出分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> As a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:</p><p><blockquote>由于这种看涨环境，分析师正在大幅提高对未来几个季度的预期。他们现在预计，到 2022 年底，每股收益将大幅升至 217.96 美元，较大流行前的高点 157.12 美元大幅回升。这样的复苏看起来很乐观，因为在过去的经济周期中，需要 7-12 年才能实现这一目标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1accc921d16b11ec13ed94686b9cfe75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于标准普尔全球数据的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Will earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度盈利真的会继续强劲复苏吗？还是分析师的假设太贪婪了？</blockquote></p><p> It wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们太贪婪，这也不是第一次了。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，他们也被自己的情绪所困扰。就标普500的盈利增长而言，90 年代是异常强劲的十年。因此，分析师完全忘记了下降周期也存在。他们将 2000 年后五年的年度每股收益增长指导提高到惊人的 15%。根据他们的说法，这种高增长率证明了股票交易市盈率创纪录的合理性，许多投资者被骗进了这个故事。</blockquote></p><p> What happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>后来发生了什么？经济没有繁荣，而是陷入了衰退，花了3年时间才恢复过来。2003 年的收益比分析师 2000 年的预测低了近 50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&amp;P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场定价符合分析师的预期，而不是考虑到可能的经济衰退，标普500崩盘并花了 7 年时间才恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0081f4a9c3ee43b20684f113cb04ef9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's get back to today... The P/E of the S&amp;P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到今天……标普500目前的市盈率为25.4倍，与历史水平相比极高。人们普遍认为盈利将继续大幅增长，这证明了这一点。因此，到 2022 年底，该比率将降至可接受的 20.7 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Now ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>现在问问自己，未来几个季度盈利增长继续高于历史平均水平的可能性有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.</p><p><blockquote>利率已经是0%了。印钞机快没纸了。联邦债务水平正在达到上限。被压抑的需求和刺激支票已经导致过去几个季度的消费者支出创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.</p><p><blockquote>也许，只是也许，分析师对他们的假设太贪婪了？也许最近的经济复苏是不可持续的，将会降温？也许我的假设（灰线）比市场预测（红线）更有可能？如果是这样，市场的 fwd 2022 市盈率为 23.6 倍，这确实很贵。</blockquote></p><p> I'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定这会发生，没人会。但这肯定是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61310c3c851b181ceb1fb3cc8862fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.</p><p><blockquote>这种贪婪也反映在图表中。如下图所示，牛市可以分为四个周期。强劲增长、熊市陷阱、媒体关注和贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，2013-2021年的牛市与1994-2000年的牛市几乎完全相同。此时此刻，纳斯达克指数（QQQ）看起来已经准备好开始最后的极度贪婪阶段。媒体将最近的反弹视为“新常态”，投资者正在大量买入FOMO，因为股票“只能上涨”。因此，纳斯达克可能会在 2021 年最后几个月上涨接近 20,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> As a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，了解这些动态极其重要。你可能也会有全力投资风险资产的冲动。然而，在这个阶段变得贪婪可能会对你的长期回报构成重大威胁，因为随后可能会出现一场大熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c783bf0cff4c410846a27c2dc8c180b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Human behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.</p><p><blockquote>人类的行为使得不被市场情绪分散注意力变得极具挑战性。如果你能对市场保持客观的看法，这将极大地有利于你的回报。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.坚持投资，机会总是有的</blockquote></p><p> In short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，第一条规则说，你的决定永远不应该被情绪所左右，你应该继续关注潜在的基本面。随着今天市场变得越来越贪婪，估值达到极端水平，这意味着你应该开始出售股票并持有大量现金，对吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not really... You know, a wise man once said the following:</p><p><blockquote>不完全是……你知道，一位智者曾经说过这样一句话：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.</b>  I'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.</p><p><blockquote><b>这是股票市场，不是股票市场。</b>我不完全确定是谁想出来的。但肯定是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> What does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？看，许多散户投资者根据整体市场前景买卖股票。如果他们不信任市场，无论如何都会不愿意投资。</blockquote></p><p> That's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.</p><p><blockquote>这不是看待市场的好方法。有近4,000只股票可供选择，无论市场如何发展，总会有有趣的投资机会产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.</p><p><blockquote>在一个普遍被高估的市场中，找到被低估的股票变得越来越具有挑战性，但肯定不是不可能的。问问沃伦·巴菲特。2000年，历史上被高估最严重的股市，他的投资工具伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）继续购买优质、被低估的资产。他的奉献得到了回报，在互联网高峰五年后，他获得了令人印象深刻的47%的回报率，而纳斯达克指数的回报率为-39%。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.</p><p><blockquote>罗素2000指数（IWM）是一个反映美国小盘股的指数，在互联网泡沫期间也非常有吸引力，2000年的市盈率为16倍（大盘股为24倍）。那些在泡沫期间投资这一被低估资产类别的人也产生了非常可观的回报。我可以想象，那些能够挑选出最好的小盘股的人比那些被过度炒作的科技股欺骗的人快乐得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c713a296e819a255b3be8ac6e504033d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.</p><p><blockquote>那么你今天应该做什么呢？我建议重新评估你所有的投资组合。将它们的估值与 3 年后的收益进行权衡，届时 Covid-19 中断（刺激措施、被压抑的需求等）消失。对你的假设要保守。如果一只股票与这些假设相比被严重高估，不要贪婪并卖出头寸。</blockquote></p><p> A great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.</p><p><blockquote>一个很好的例子是苹果公司（AAPL），它是今年最受欢迎的股票之一。由于其非常强劲的财务状况（上季度收入增长 36.4%），其市盈率在过去两年中翻了一番多，达到 30 倍。重要的是要明白，其最近的增长主要是由于不可持续的驱动因素，如几轮刺激支票。一旦这种情况消失，苹果的增长可能会回落到个位数（甚至可能在短期内为负），未来的回报将非常疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Don't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&amp;P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>不要把所有释放的资本都保留在现金中，尤其是在当前的通胀环境下。仍然有机会将这笔钱进行再投资。在我看来，小盘股是当今最具吸引力的资产类别，就像 2000 年一样。在最近表现不佳之后，罗素2000指数（代表所有美国小型股）今天的市盈率为15.6倍。这远低于标普500指数及其历史平均水平。有很多小盘股机会，未来将产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f132a93975b3b7fef86aff21c0b49bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yardeni</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚德尼</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.采用行之有效的投资策略选股</b></blockquote></p><p> Rule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.</p><p><blockquote>规则#1和#2在纸面上看起来很好，但在现实中很难执行。当紧要关头时，很难否认自己的情绪，并在估值过高的市场中找到有趣的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> That's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是#3发挥作用的地方：采用行之有效的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> With the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市即将到来的挑战，我相信在高度不确定的市场环境中，遵循预先确定的策略从未像今天这样重要。如果你使用过去行之有效的策略，你会在每个市场环境中感觉很棒。</blockquote></p><p> There are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>只要你坚持下去，有很多策略对你有用。我们坚信，我们在内部机会方面被低估的战略将在未来几年非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p> To find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找有吸引力的投资机会，我们每天都会跟踪内部购买情况。内部人士是首席财务官、首席执行官、董事会成员等。他们比市场上任何人都更了解自己的业务。如果他们看到股价和业务基本面之间脱节，他们可以购买股票来产生利润。您可以通过 SEC 文件或 openinsider.com 等网站每天跟踪这种所谓“聪明资金”的购买情况。</blockquote></p><p> We don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".</p><p><blockquote>我们不只是跟进内部购买。我们基于过去十年中超过一百万个数据点创建了三个算法，从所有内部购买中挑选出最好的。因此，我们坚持预先确定的计划，只购买基于特定基本面有吸引力的股票，称为“黄金选择”。</blockquote></p><p> It worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&amp;P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>它在过去非常有效。我们的回测显示，该策略在过去十年中产生了 47.2% 的年化回报率，是标普500指数的三倍。仅在2011年，它的表现略低于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05af9240a87a55641df0a7921ec0380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：内幕机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>我们坚信，无论市场表现如何，这一革命性的策略都将继续在股票市场为我们创造财富。给自己找一个像我们这样严格的、行之有效的策略，在即将到来的不确定性中，你可以依靠它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Do this at all-time highs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：在历史高点这样做</b></blockquote></p><p> Most stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?</p><p><blockquote>当创下历史新高时，大多数股市投资者都在固步自封。最重要的是，在这样的牛市里，什么事都不会出错吧？</blockquote></p><p> No, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>不，事情不是这样的。市场在周期中演变，那些不认识到适应这些周期重要性的人将面临疲软的长期回报。</blockquote></p><p> How should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:</p><p><blockquote>你应该如何接近今天的历史高点，以继续创造财富？以下是我的三条黄金法则：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>Don't get greedy.</b>As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.</li>  <li><b>Keep being invested.</b>Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.</li>  <li><b>Adopt a proven strategy.</b>Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>不要贪婪。</b>作为情绪行为的结果，当市场反弹时，你会想要承担更高的风险。永远不要跟随这些情绪，永远关注基本面。</li><li><b>继续投资。</b>不要仅仅因为市场被高估就不愿意投资股票。承认这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。每个市场环境中总有巨大的机会。如今，它们大多是低调的小盘股。</li><li><b>采用行之有效的策略。</b>投资并不容易，尤其是当事情开始向南发展的时候。采用严格的、行之有效的投资策略可以让生活变得更加轻松，并显着提高回报。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点投资的 3 条黄金法则</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Golden Rules On How To Invest At All-Time Highs<blockquote>如何在历史高点投资的 3 条黄金法则</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 14:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Markets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.</li>  <li>As markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.</li>  <li>What should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?</li>  <li>In this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f5f0c9f1aacfbc6d8c78d0e84da5fc9\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"878\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>phive2015/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>市场每周继续创下历史新高，并且在 200 多个交易日中没有出现明显的调整。</li><li>随着市场反弹，许多投资者开始固步自封，而处于历史高点的投资决策实际上比以往任何时候都更加重要。</li><li>在当今的市场上，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格抛售，还是今天买入仍然能获得丰厚的回报？</li><li>在这篇文章中，我将分享我关于如何在今天这样的历史高点进行投资的三条黄金法则。这些信息对你未来在市场上创造财富非常有价值。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>phive2015/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&amp;P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.</p><p><blockquote>2021年股市一路狂飙。8月底，标普500指数（SPDR标普500指数ETF）年初至今上涨20.4%。有趣的是，该指数一直在非常狭窄的上涨区间内交易，并且在208个交易日中没有出现5%的修正。虽然大多数投资者并不认为这是一种异常现象，但实际上却是。这两种事件在股市历史上只发生过7次。我们显然生活在一个不正常的时代。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c58ccc72065c84083443d6be7f03482a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"322\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Each day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.</p><p><blockquote>每天仔细考虑你所做的投资决策是很重要的。最重要的是，所有的购买或销售都会影响你未来在市场上的财富积累。</blockquote></p><p> However, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在像今天这样的极端反弹期间，反思你的投资决策更加重要。问问那些在互联网泡沫期间承担高风险或在 Covid-19 崩盘期间恐慌性抛售的投资者。这无疑对他们的长期回报产生了巨大影响。</blockquote></p><p> The importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.</p><p><blockquote>今天的投资决策对你的长期回报很重要，这就是为什么我选择写我关于如何在历史高点投资的三条黄金法则。你应该如何对待今天的市场，你应该注意什么？你应该以这些高估的价格卖出并等待调整发生，还是在这些水平买入时仍然能产生丰厚的回报？这篇文章将提供这些百万美元问题的答案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Don't get caught by greediness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.不要被贪婪抓住</b></blockquote></p><p> Let's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从最重要的规则开始。避免贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> According to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&amp;P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.</p><p><blockquote>根据摩根大通的数据，在过去的20年里，投资者的平均年回报率仅为2.9%。因此，它们的表现明显逊于一般市场，因为标普500在此期间的年回报率为 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.</p><p><blockquote>散户投资者表现不佳的最重要原因是什么？情感人类行为。</blockquote></p><p> The average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.</p><p><blockquote>普通投资者受到媒体头条、股价变动和其他投资者行为的严重影响。</blockquote></p><p> Today, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&amp;P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote>今天，我们到达了一个极度看涨的股市环境。上个财报季是股市历史上最伟大的财报季之一。标普500每股收益同比增长 94.5%，86.1% 的成分股超出分析师预期。</blockquote></p><p> As a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:</p><p><blockquote>由于这种看涨环境，分析师正在大幅提高对未来几个季度的预期。他们现在预计，到 2022 年底，每股收益将大幅升至 217.96 美元，较大流行前的高点 157.12 美元大幅回升。这样的复苏看起来很乐观，因为在过去的经济周期中，需要 7-12 年才能实现这一目标：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1accc921d16b11ec13ed94686b9cfe75\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于标准普尔全球数据的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Will earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度盈利真的会继续强劲复苏吗？还是分析师的假设太贪婪了？</blockquote></p><p> It wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&amp;P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.</p><p><blockquote>如果他们太贪婪，这也不是第一次了。例如，在互联网泡沫期间，他们也被自己的情绪所困扰。就标普500的盈利增长而言，90 年代是异常强劲的十年。因此，分析师完全忘记了下降周期也存在。他们将 2000 年后五年的年度每股收益增长指导提高到惊人的 15%。根据他们的说法，这种高增长率证明了股票交易市盈率创纪录的合理性，许多投资者被骗进了这个故事。</blockquote></p><p> What happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>后来发生了什么？经济没有繁荣，而是陷入了衰退，花了3年时间才恢复过来。2003 年的收益比分析师 2000 年的预测低了近 50%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&amp;P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场定价符合分析师的预期，而不是考虑到可能的经济衰退，标普500崩盘并花了 7 年时间才恢复。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0081f4a9c3ee43b20684f113cb04ef9c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Let's get back to today... The P/E of the S&amp;P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>让我们回到今天……标普500目前的市盈率为25.4倍，与历史水平相比极高。人们普遍认为盈利将继续大幅增长，这证明了这一点。因此，到 2022 年底，该比率将降至可接受的 20.7 倍。</blockquote></p><p> Now ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>现在问问自己，未来几个季度盈利增长继续高于历史平均水平的可能性有多大。</blockquote></p><p> Interest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.</p><p><blockquote>利率已经是0%了。印钞机快没纸了。联邦债务水平正在达到上限。被压抑的需求和刺激支票已经导致过去几个季度的消费者支出创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Maybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.</p><p><blockquote>也许，只是也许，分析师对他们的假设太贪婪了？也许最近的经济复苏是不可持续的，将会降温？也许我的假设（灰线）比市场预测（红线）更有可能？如果是这样，市场的 fwd 2022 市盈率为 23.6 倍，这确实很贵。</blockquote></p><p> I'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.</p><p><blockquote>我不确定这会发生，没人会。但这肯定是一种可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f61310c3c851b181ceb1fb3cc8862fdb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities based on S&amp;P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：基于S&amp;P全球数据和Yardeni的内部机会；使用调整后的每股收益</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.</p><p><blockquote>这种贪婪也反映在图表中。如下图所示，牛市可以分为四个周期。强劲增长、熊市陷阱、媒体关注和贪婪。</blockquote></p><p> Interestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>有趣的是，2013-2021年的牛市与1994-2000年的牛市几乎完全相同。此时此刻，纳斯达克指数（QQQ）看起来已经准备好开始最后的极度贪婪阶段。媒体将最近的反弹视为“新常态”，投资者正在大量买入FOMO，因为股票“只能上涨”。因此，纳斯达克可能会在 2021 年最后几个月上涨接近 20,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p> As a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.</p><p><blockquote>作为长期投资者，了解这些动态极其重要。你可能也会有全力投资风险资产的冲动。然而，在这个阶段变得贪婪可能会对你的长期回报构成重大威胁，因为随后可能会出现一场大熊市。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c783bf0cff4c410846a27c2dc8c180b1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"499\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Tradingview 的内部机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Human behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.</p><p><blockquote>人类的行为使得不被市场情绪分散注意力变得极具挑战性。如果你能对市场保持客观的看法，这将极大地有利于你的回报。</blockquote></p><p> 2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities</p><p><blockquote>2.坚持投资，机会总是有的</blockquote></p><p> In short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，第一条规则说，你的决定永远不应该被情绪所左右，你应该继续关注潜在的基本面。随着今天市场变得越来越贪婪，估值达到极端水平，这意味着你应该开始出售股票并持有大量现金，对吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not really... You know, a wise man once said the following:</p><p><blockquote>不完全是……你知道，一位智者曾经说过这样一句话：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>It's a market of stocks, not a stock market.</b>  I'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.</p><p><blockquote><b>这是股票市场，不是股票市场。</b>我不完全确定是谁想出来的。但肯定是个聪明人。</blockquote></p><p> What does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.</p><p><blockquote>这是什么意思？看，许多散户投资者根据整体市场前景买卖股票。如果他们不信任市场，无论如何都会不愿意投资。</blockquote></p><p> That's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.</p><p><blockquote>这不是看待市场的好方法。有近4,000只股票可供选择，无论市场如何发展，总会有有趣的投资机会产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> In a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.</p><p><blockquote>在一个普遍被高估的市场中，找到被低估的股票变得越来越具有挑战性，但肯定不是不可能的。问问沃伦·巴菲特。2000年，历史上被高估最严重的股市，他的投资工具伯克希尔哈撒韦公司（BRK.A）（BRK.B）继续购买优质、被低估的资产。他的奉献得到了回报，在互联网高峰五年后，他获得了令人印象深刻的47%的回报率，而纳斯达克指数的回报率为-39%。</blockquote></p><p> The Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.</p><p><blockquote>罗素2000指数（IWM）是一个反映美国小盘股的指数，在互联网泡沫期间也非常有吸引力，2000年的市盈率为16倍（大盘股为24倍）。那些在泡沫期间投资这一被低估资产类别的人也产生了非常可观的回报。我可以想象，那些能够挑选出最好的小盘股的人比那些被过度炒作的科技股欺骗的人快乐得多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c713a296e819a255b3be8ac6e504033d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> So what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.</p><p><blockquote>那么你今天应该做什么呢？我建议重新评估你所有的投资组合。将它们的估值与 3 年后的收益进行权衡，届时 Covid-19 中断（刺激措施、被压抑的需求等）消失。对你的假设要保守。如果一只股票与这些假设相比被严重高估，不要贪婪并卖出头寸。</blockquote></p><p> A great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.</p><p><blockquote>一个很好的例子是苹果公司（AAPL），它是今年最受欢迎的股票之一。由于其非常强劲的财务状况（上季度收入增长 36.4%），其市盈率在过去两年中翻了一番多，达到 30 倍。重要的是要明白，其最近的增长主要是由于不可持续的驱动因素，如几轮刺激支票。一旦这种情况消失，苹果的增长可能会回落到个位数（甚至可能在短期内为负），未来的回报将非常疲软。</blockquote></p><p> Don't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&amp;P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>不要把所有释放的资本都保留在现金中，尤其是在当前的通胀环境下。仍然有机会将这笔钱进行再投资。在我看来，小盘股是当今最具吸引力的资产类别，就像 2000 年一样。在最近表现不佳之后，罗素2000指数（代表所有美国小型股）今天的市盈率为15.6倍。这远低于标普500指数及其历史平均水平。有很多小盘股机会，未来将产生丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f132a93975b3b7fef86aff21c0b49bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"250\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Yardeni</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚德尼</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.采用行之有效的投资策略选股</b></blockquote></p><p> Rule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.</p><p><blockquote>规则#1和#2在纸面上看起来很好，但在现实中很难执行。当紧要关头时，很难否认自己的情绪，并在估值过高的市场中找到有趣的投资机会。</blockquote></p><p> That's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.</p><p><blockquote>这就是#3发挥作用的地方：采用行之有效的投资策略。</blockquote></p><p> With the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.</p><p><blockquote>随着股市即将到来的挑战，我相信在高度不确定的市场环境中，遵循预先确定的策略从未像今天这样重要。如果你使用过去行之有效的策略，你会在每个市场环境中感觉很棒。</blockquote></p><p> There are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.</p><p><blockquote>只要你坚持下去，有很多策略对你有用。我们坚信，我们在内部机会方面被低估的战略将在未来几年非常有价值。</blockquote></p><p> To find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找有吸引力的投资机会，我们每天都会跟踪内部购买情况。内部人士是首席财务官、首席执行官、董事会成员等。他们比市场上任何人都更了解自己的业务。如果他们看到股价和业务基本面之间脱节，他们可以购买股票来产生利润。您可以通过 SEC 文件或 openinsider.com 等网站每天跟踪这种所谓“聪明资金”的购买情况。</blockquote></p><p> We don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".</p><p><blockquote>我们不只是跟进内部购买。我们基于过去十年中超过一百万个数据点创建了三个算法，从所有内部购买中挑选出最好的。因此，我们坚持预先确定的计划，只购买基于特定基本面有吸引力的股票，称为“黄金选择”。</blockquote></p><p> It worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&amp;P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.</p><p><blockquote>它在过去非常有效。我们的回测显示，该策略在过去十年中产生了 47.2% 的年化回报率，是标普500指数的三倍。仅在2011年，它的表现略低于市场。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f05af9240a87a55641df0a7921ec0380\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"359\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Insider Opportunities</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：内幕机会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.</p><p><blockquote>我们坚信，无论市场表现如何，这一革命性的策略都将继续在股票市场为我们创造财富。给自己找一个像我们这样严格的、行之有效的策略，在即将到来的不确定性中，你可以依靠它。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: Do this at all-time highs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：在历史高点这样做</b></blockquote></p><p> Most stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?</p><p><blockquote>当创下历史新高时，大多数股市投资者都在固步自封。最重要的是，在这样的牛市里，什么事都不会出错吧？</blockquote></p><p> No, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>不，事情不是这样的。市场在周期中演变，那些不认识到适应这些周期重要性的人将面临疲软的长期回报。</blockquote></p><p> How should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:</p><p><blockquote>你应该如何接近今天的历史高点，以继续创造财富？以下是我的三条黄金法则：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ol>  <li><b>Don't get greedy.</b>As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.</li>  <li><b>Keep being invested.</b>Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.</li>  <li><b>Adopt a proven strategy.</b>Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.</li> </ol></p><p><blockquote><ol><li><b>不要贪婪。</b>作为情绪行为的结果，当市场反弹时，你会想要承担更高的风险。永远不要跟随这些情绪，永远关注基本面。</li><li><b>继续投资。</b>不要仅仅因为市场被高估就不愿意投资股票。承认这是一个股票市场，而不是股票市场。每个市场环境中总有巨大的机会。如今，它们大多是低调的小盘股。</li><li><b>采用行之有效的策略。</b>投资并不容易，尤其是当事情开始向南发展的时候。采用严格的、行之有效的投资策略可以让生活变得更加轻松，并显着提高回报。</li></ol></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453541-3-golden-rules-on-how-to-invest-at-all-time-highs\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453541-3-golden-rules-on-how-to-invest-at-all-time-highs","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186375251","content_text":"Summary\n\nMarkets continue to reach new all-time highs each week and have not seen a notable correction in over 200 trading days.\nAs markets are rallying, many investors are starting to rest on their laurels while investment decisions at all-time highs are actually more important than ever.\nWhat should you be aware of in today's market? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices or can you still generate great returns by buying today?\nIn this article, I will share my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs like today. This information will be very valuable for your future wealth generation in the market.\n\nphive2015/iStock via Getty Images\nThe stock market has been on a rampage in 2021. At the end of August, the S&P 500 index (SPY) gained 20.4% year-to-date. Interestingly, the index has been trading in a very tight upward range and has not seen a 5% correction for 208 trading days. While most investors don't see this as an anomaly, it actually is. Both events have only occurred 7 times before in stock market history. We are clearly living in abnormal times.\nSource: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview\nEach day it is important to think thoroughly about the investment decisions you make. Above all, all purchases or sales will impact your future wealth accumulation in the market.\nHowever, during extreme rallies like today it is twice as important to reflect on your investment decisions. Ask that to investors who took high risks during the dot-com bubble or panic sold during the Covid-19 crash. That undoubtedly had an immense impact on their long-term returns.\nThe importance of investment decisions today for your long-term returns is why I chose to write about my three golden rules on how to invest at all-time highs. How should you approach today's market and what should you be aware of? Should you sell out at these overvalued prices and wait for a correction to take place or can you still generate great returns when buying at these levels? The answers to these one-million-dollar questions will be provided in this article.\n1. Don't get caught by greediness\nLet's start off with the most important rule. Avoid greediness.\nAccording to JPMorgan, over the past 20 years, the average investor reached an annual return of only 2.9%. As such, they significantly underperformed the general market as the S&P 500 yielded an annual 7.5% return during this time frame.\nThe single most important reason for this retail investor underperformance? Emotional human behavior.\nThe average investor is getting influenced heavily by media headlines, stock prices movements and behavior from other investors.\nToday, we reached an extremely bullish stock market environment. Last earnings season has been one of the greatest in stock market history. The S&P 500 EPS rose by 94.5% YoY and 86.1% of its constituents beat analyst estimates.\nAs a consequence of this bullish environment, analysts are significantly raising their estimates for the next quarters. They now expect EPS to rise sharply to $217.96 by the end of 2022, which is a significant recovery from the pre-pandemic high of $157.12. Such a recovery looks to be optimistic as it took 7-12 years in the past economic cycles to achieve this:\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data; adjusted EPS is used\nWill earnings really continue this very strong recovery over the coming quarters or are analysts perhaps getting too greedy with their assumptions?\nIt wouldn't be the first time if they were too greedy. During the dot-com bubble for example, they were caught by their emotions as well. The '90s was an abnormally strong decade in terms of earnings growth for the S&P 500. As such, analysts totally forgot that downward cycles exist as well. They increased their annual EPS growth guidance to a staggering 15% for the five years following 2000. According to them, this high growth rate justified the record P/E multiples stocks were trading at and many investors got tricked into that story.\nWhat happened afterwards? The economy didn't boom, it fell into a recession which took 3 years to recover from. Earnings in 2003 were almost 50% lower than what analysts had been predicting in 2000.\nAs markets were priced to analyst expectations instead of taking into account a possible downturn, the S&P 500 crashed and took 7 years to recover.\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used\nLet's get back to today... The P/E of the S&P 500 currently stands at 25.4x, which is extremely high compared to historical levels. This gets justified by the common belief that earnings will continue rising significantly. As such, the ratio would fall to an acceptable 20.7x by the end of 2022.\nNow ask yourself how likely it is that earnings growth will continue to grow at higher levels than the historical average over the coming quarters.\nInterest rates are already at 0%. The money printer is running out of paper. Federal debt levels are hitting their ceilings. Pent-up demand and stimuli cheques already led to record-high consumer spending over the past quarters.\nMaybe, just maybe, analysts are being too greedy with their assumptions? Maybe the recent economic recovery is unsustainable and set to cool down? Maybe my assumptions (grey line) are much more likely than what the market is predicting (red line)? If so, the market is trading at a fwd 2022 P/E of 23.6x, which is really expensive.\nI'm not sure this will happen, nobody is. But it sure as hell is a probability.\nSource: Insider Opportunities based on S&P Global data and Yardeni; adjusted EPS is used\nThis greediness also gets reflected in the charts. As you can see in the chart below, a bull market can be split into four cycles. Strong growth, bear trap, media attention and greed.\nInterestingly, the 2013-2021 bull market is playing out almost identically as the 1994-2000 bull market. At this moment, the Nasdaq Index (QQQ) looks to be ready to start the last extreme greed phase. The media is approaching the recent rally as \"the new normal\" and investors are FOMO buying heavily because stocks \"can only go up\". As such, it is likely that the Nasdaq will rise close to $20,000 in the last months of 2021.\nAs a long-term investor, it is extremely important to understand these dynamics. You will probably feel the urge to go all-in in risky assets as well. However, getting greedy during this phase could be a major threat for your long term returns as it will likely be followed by a major bear market.\nSource: Insider Opportunities with Tradingview\nHuman behavior makes it extremely challenging to not get distracted by market sentiment. If you can keep an objective view on markets, it will benefit your returns drastically.\n2. Keep investing, there are always opportunities\nIn short, rule #1 says that your decisions should never be led by emotions and that you should keep focusing on underlying fundamentals. As the market is getting greedy today and valuations reach extreme levels it implies that you should start selling stocks and hold a lot of cash, right?\nNot really... You know, a wise man once said the following:\n\nIt's a market of stocks, not a stock market.\n\nI'm not entirely sure who came up with it. But it must be a wise man, for sure.\nWhat does it mean? Look, many retail investors buy/sell stocks based on how the outlook for the general market looks like. If they don't trust the markets, they will be reluctant to invest, no matter what.\nThat's not a great way of looking at markets. There are almost 4,000 stocks available and there will always be interesting investment opportunities to generate great returns, no matter how the market evolves.\nIn a generally overvalued market it gets increasingly challenging to find undervalued stocks, but certainly not impossible. Ask Warren Buffett. In 2000, the most overvalued stock market in history, his investment vehicle Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) kept buying high-quality, undervalued assets. His dedication paid off with an impressive return of 47% five years after the dot-com peak compared to -39% for the Nasdaq index.\nThe Russell 2000 (IWM), an index reflecting US small caps, was very attractive during the dot-com bubble as well, trading at a P/E of 16x (vs 24x for large caps) going into 2000. Those who invested in this undervalued asset class during the bubble also generated very solid returns. Those who were able to pick out the greatest small caps were a lot happier than those who got tricked into overhyped tech stocks, I can imagine.\nData by YCharts\nSo what should you do today? I would suggest re-evaluating all your portfolio holdings. Weigh their valuation compared to earnings 3 years from now, when Covid-19 disruptions (stimuli, pent-up demand, etc.) are gone. Be conservative with your assumptions. If a stock is significantly overvalued compared to those assumptions, don't be greedy and sell out the position.\nA great example is Apple Inc. (AAPL), one of the most popular stocks this year. As a consequence of its very strong financials (revenue grew 36.4% last quarter), its P/E ratio more than doubled over the past two years to 30x. It is important to understand that its recent growth primarily accelerated due to unsustainable drivers such as the several rounds of stimuli cheques. Once this fades away, Apple's growth is likely to fall back to single digits (or might even go negative in the short term) and returns would be very weak going forward.\nDon't keep all that freed up capital in cash, especially in the current inflationary environment. There are still opportunities to re-invest that money. In my opinion, small caps are the most attractive asset class today just like they were in 2000. After its recent underperformance, the Russell 2000 (representing all US small caps) is trading at a P/E of 15.6x today. This is much lower than both the S&P 500 Index and its historical average. There are plenty of small-cap opportunities out there which will generate great returns going forward.\nSource: Yardeni\n3. Adopt a proven investment strategy to pick stocks\nRule #1 and #2 look very good on paper, but are very hard to execute in reality. When push comes to shove, it's very tough to deny your emotions and to find interesting investment opportunities in an overvalued market.\nThat's where #3 comes into play: adopt a proven investment strategy.\nWith the upcoming challenges in the stock market, I believe it has never been as important as today to follow a pre-determined strategy on which you can rely during a highly uncertain market environment. If you use a strategy which worked well in the past, you'll feel great in each market environment.\nThere are many strategies that could work for you, as long as you stick to it. We strongly believe that our under-appreciated strategy at Insider Opportunities will be very valuable in the coming years.\nTo find attractive investment opportunities, we follow insider purchases each day. Insiders are the CFOs, CEOs, board members, etc. who know their business better than anyone else in the market. If they see a disconnection between the share price and the business fundamentals, they can purchase shares to generate profits. You can follow the purchases of this so-called \"smart money\" on a daily basis through SEC filings or websites like openinsider.com.\nWe don't just follow up insider purchases. We created three algorithms based on more than a million of data points over the past decade to pick the greatest ones out of all insider purchases. As such, we stick to a pre-determined plan to only buy stocks that are attractive based on specific fundamentals, called \"golden picks\".\nIt worked tremendously in the past. Our back-test shows that the strategy generated annualized returns of 47.2% over the past decade, tripling the S&P 500 index. Only in 2011 it slightly underperformed the market.\nSource: Insider Opportunities\n\nWe firmly believe that this revolutionary strategy will continue generating wealth for us in the stock market, regardless of how the market performs. Find yourself a strict, proven strategy like ours on which you can rely during the upcoming uncertainties.\nConclusion: Do this at all-time highs\nMost stock market investors are resting on their laurels when all-time highs are being reached. Above all, nothing can go wrong in such a bullish market, right?\nNo, that's not how it works. Markets evolve in cycles and those who don't acknowledge the importance of adapting to these cycles will be struck at weak long-term returns.\nHow should you approach today's all-time highs to keep generating wealth going forward? Here are my three golden rules:\n\nDon't get greedy.As a consequence of emotional behavior, you will want to take higher risks when markets are rallying. Never follow these emotions and always keep focused on the fundamentals.\nKeep being invested.Don't get reluctant to invest in stocks just because markets are getting overvalued. Acknowledge that it's a market of stocks, not a stock market. There are always great opportunities in each market environment. Today, they are mostly available in under-the-radar small caps.\nAdopt a proven strategy.Investing is not easy, especially when things are starting to move southwards. Adopting a strict, proven investment strategy can make life much easier and improve returns significantly.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":641,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815358133,"gmtCreate":1630648510622,"gmtModify":1631889583203,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time to load up&nbsp;","listText":"Time to load up&nbsp;","text":"Time to load up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815358133","repostId":"1159580926","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815353185,"gmtCreate":1630648190747,"gmtModify":1631889583220,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It’s easy to advocate&nbsp;picking high quality stocks with solid profits &amp; dividends but it’ll be even better&nbsp;if you may list down a number of them which tick the boxes","listText":"It’s easy to advocate&nbsp;picking high quality stocks with solid profits &amp; dividends but it’ll be even better&nbsp;if you may list down a number of them which tick the boxes","text":"It’s easy to advocate picking high quality stocks with solid profits & dividends but it’ll be even better if you may list down a number of them which tick the boxes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815353185","repostId":"1115112299","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115112299","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630641559,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1115112299?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>当2022年数万亿美元的刺激计划用完时会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115112299","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业率扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款延期即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022 年股市盈利预期可能过高。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报主张。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者山姆·科瓦奇（Sam Kovacs）分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府采取了前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/暂停驱逐、购买力平价和提高失业救济金。到目前为止，这一努力似乎取得了成功，尽管批评人士指出，这导致了通货膨胀的大幅上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远维持3万亿美元的赤字，至少每个人都不会通过相对于收入更高的消费价格来隐性支付。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，用刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自己的生产力运行时——而不是依靠临时转移支付——会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入的记录（2021年每股200美元至205美元之间，而2019年之前的记录为163美元）。华尔街分析师还预计标普500 2022 年每股收益约为 215 美元，这将是又一个纪录。当你计算生产率和经济产出时，情况并没有那么好，这有助于解释为什么现在有如此多的商品和服务短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能表明企业在中期可以赚取多少钱（剔除消费者花费临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收益数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这大约有50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多投资者轻松赚钱，涌入低信念、高势头的股票，解除刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合余额造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是伙计<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管山姆和我住在德克萨斯州郊区，相隔地球的另一边，但我对市场的看法却惊人地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>在美联储对大流行病做出反应的最初几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话又说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早推出刺激措施和冒着通胀失控的风险之间取得平衡并非易事。政府研究了之前的崩溃情况，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是 “暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但任何参加过 Econ 101 的人都知道，通货膨胀会自食其力。起初，公司是反动的，但后来他们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔 (HRL) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了许多定价措施来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，可能会采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉 (CAG) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的初始通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度食品通货膨胀不会短缺。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比价格，这继续导致总体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食物和交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以申请学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激措施不可能永远持续下去。随着达美航空减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消失时会发生什么？这就是我们将在文章的其余部分讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/止赎</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的暂停驱逐令。根据我最近的统计，目前大约有150万个家庭参与了延期计划（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国大约有5000万个抵押贷款。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠还款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终卖掉，收回股权，搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款资产为负，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在情况并非如此——我不认为止赎会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，大约有600-700万套房屋在典型的一年内被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月内出售，这对于那些与房屋短缺作斗争的人和那些无法支付自己拥有的房屋的人来说将是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回升至过去 10 年的平均约 4%，同时人们正在抛售他们一直在忍耐的房屋，价格将会下降更多。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠多余的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会急剧缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠房租，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽略刺激措施放松的盈利预测并没有恰当地说明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐暂停令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该蜂拥投资住宅房地产投资信托基金。如下图 Essex Property (ESS) 的 MAD 图表所示，已从严重低估回到历史上的高估。我们之前建议投资者卖出 ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也出现了同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities (AVB) 历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，没有一家公司比卡姆登财产信托 (CPT) 更被高估，如果市场情绪发生变化，该公司很容易下跌 1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经通过了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去的几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的： “买谣言/卖新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆会给一部分人的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在 30 岁以下，这一群体的支出占收入的比例高于 50 岁的人为退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是用税后美元支付的，这就像反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们从不偿还贷款中获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费，要么投资于加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站（GME）等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上层专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事行业并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配给社会阶层较高的人（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是超过 1.7 万亿美元的美国学生贷款，而在这 21 个月期间，那些欠下贷款的人通常不会偿还这些贷款。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在更高。2022 年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最简单的刺激形式。由于大部分贷款都是联邦贷款，因此暂停还款并不会对任何人造成明显的伤害，以至于无法抱怨。由于发放并不直接，批评者也不像对经济刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的钱，无论是股票还是加密货币，都会在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时拿出来。这是否会对市场产生足够的影响值得怀疑，但随着大部分人口不得不恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算的一天。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人来说将是严峻的。至少你还能在 AMC 影院（AMC）看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激支票</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根-加剧的失业率将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法获得失业救济。这是联邦政府每周向失业者发放的33亿美元，这反过来又比12个月前少得多。当它消失后，它将成为控制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普执政之前的付款之外，一个收入中位数的四口之家在3月份将获得5600美元的刺激支票。这些将不再流通，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但它目前的形式也将于 12 月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们很可能会看到 800 万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终会在 1000 万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在接下来的几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：什么还没有到来？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊 (AMZN)、Zoom Video (ZM) 和 Peloton (PTON) 等公司高调的盈利低迷表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于受益于疫情带来的暂时变化的公司来说，好日子将永远持续下去。这在宏观层面上是否属实是一种很大的可能性，而且根据今年剩余时间的盈利结果，这可能最终会成为现实。虽然市场价格一定会因此大幅下跌，但不可否认的是，在过去6-12个月里，市场的风险回报权衡已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们两种观点中，一个好的辩护是投资于高质量的公司，而不是基本面平庸的热门高动量股票，并采取长远的眼光。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>通货膨胀列车已经离开车站。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激引发了一个通胀周期，通胀周期将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。Covid 德尔塔变异毒株软化了一些经济指标，如外出就餐或旅行，但由于该国的病例数已经达到顶峰，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥形。更高的利率，甚至是更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润毫无价值的花哨方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者想仔细审视一下自己的投资组合，问问自己是否有不合理高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场的晦涩部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像 Intuit (INTU) 这样的股票目前的交易价格是 16 倍？即使按照其通常8-9倍销售额的高标准，这也是异常高的。将其与该股的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、运营规模大、估值相对较低的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>安进 (AMGN) 是排名前 100 的股票之一，该公司目前的收益率超过 3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际 (PM)、博通 (AVGO) 和摩根士丹利 (MS.PK) 相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格收购具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的放松将打击消费，进而影响盈利结果。被高估的名字的重大失误意味着麻烦。当股票被高估时，负责任的做法是缩减股票的规模。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>当2022年数万亿美元的刺激计划用完时会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>当2022年数万亿美元的刺激计划用完时会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 11:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业率扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款延期即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022 年股市盈利预期可能过高。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报主张。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者山姆·科瓦奇（Sam Kovacs）分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府采取了前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/暂停驱逐、购买力平价和提高失业救济金。到目前为止，这一努力似乎取得了成功，尽管批评人士指出，这导致了通货膨胀的大幅上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远维持3万亿美元的赤字，至少每个人都不会通过相对于收入更高的消费价格来隐性支付。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，用刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自己的生产力运行时——而不是依靠临时转移支付——会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入的记录（2021年每股200美元至205美元之间，而2019年之前的记录为163美元）。华尔街分析师还预计标普500 2022 年每股收益约为 215 美元，这将是又一个纪录。当你计算生产率和经济产出时，情况并没有那么好，这有助于解释为什么现在有如此多的商品和服务短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能表明企业在中期可以赚取多少钱（剔除消费者花费临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收益数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这大约有50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多投资者轻松赚钱，涌入低信念、高势头的股票，解除刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合余额造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是伙计<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管山姆和我住在德克萨斯州郊区，相隔地球的另一边，但我对市场的看法却惊人地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>在美联储对大流行病做出反应的最初几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话又说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早推出刺激措施和冒着通胀失控的风险之间取得平衡并非易事。政府研究了之前的崩溃情况，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是 “暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但任何参加过 Econ 101 的人都知道，通货膨胀会自食其力。起初，公司是反动的，但后来他们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔 (HRL) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了许多定价措施来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，可能会采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉 (CAG) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的初始通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度食品通货膨胀不会短缺。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比价格，这继续导致总体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食物和交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以申请学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激措施不可能永远持续下去。随着达美航空减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消失时会发生什么？这就是我们将在文章的其余部分讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/止赎</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的暂停驱逐令。根据我最近的统计，目前大约有150万个家庭参与了延期计划（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国大约有5000万个抵押贷款。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠还款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终卖掉，收回股权，搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款资产为负，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在情况并非如此——我不认为止赎会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，大约有600-700万套房屋在典型的一年内被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月内出售，这对于那些与房屋短缺作斗争的人和那些无法支付自己拥有的房屋的人来说将是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回升至过去 10 年的平均约 4%，同时人们正在抛售他们一直在忍耐的房屋，价格将会下降更多。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠多余的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会急剧缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠房租，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽略刺激措施放松的盈利预测并没有恰当地说明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐暂停令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该蜂拥投资住宅房地产投资信托基金。如下图 Essex Property (ESS) 的 MAD 图表所示，已从严重低估回到历史上的高估。我们之前建议投资者卖出 ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也出现了同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities (AVB) 历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，没有一家公司比卡姆登财产信托 (CPT) 更被高估，如果市场情绪发生变化，该公司很容易下跌 1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经通过了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去的几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的： “买谣言/卖新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆会给一部分人的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在 30 岁以下，这一群体的支出占收入的比例高于 50 岁的人为退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是用税后美元支付的，这就像反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们从不偿还贷款中获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费，要么投资于加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站（GME）等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上层专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事行业并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配给社会阶层较高的人（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是超过 1.7 万亿美元的美国学生贷款，而在这 21 个月期间，那些欠下贷款的人通常不会偿还这些贷款。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在更高。2022 年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最简单的刺激形式。由于大部分贷款都是联邦贷款，因此暂停还款并不会对任何人造成明显的伤害，以至于无法抱怨。由于发放并不直接，批评者也不像对经济刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的钱，无论是股票还是加密货币，都会在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时拿出来。这是否会对市场产生足够的影响值得怀疑，但随着大部分人口不得不恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算的一天。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人来说将是严峻的。至少你还能在 AMC 影院（AMC）看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激支票</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根-加剧的失业率将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法获得失业救济。这是联邦政府每周向失业者发放的33亿美元，这反过来又比12个月前少得多。当它消失后，它将成为控制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普执政之前的付款之外，一个收入中位数的四口之家在3月份将获得5600美元的刺激支票。这些将不再流通，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但它目前的形式也将于 12 月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们很可能会看到 800 万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终会在 1000 万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在接下来的几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：什么还没有到来？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊 (AMZN)、Zoom Video (ZM) 和 Peloton (PTON) 等公司高调的盈利低迷表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于受益于疫情带来的暂时变化的公司来说，好日子将永远持续下去。这在宏观层面上是否属实是一种很大的可能性，而且根据今年剩余时间的盈利结果，这可能最终会成为现实。虽然市场价格一定会因此大幅下跌，但不可否认的是，在过去6-12个月里，市场的风险回报权衡已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们两种观点中，一个好的辩护是投资于高质量的公司，而不是基本面平庸的热门高动量股票，并采取长远的眼光。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>通货膨胀列车已经离开车站。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激引发了一个通胀周期，通胀周期将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。Covid 德尔塔变异毒株软化了一些经济指标，如外出就餐或旅行，但由于该国的病例数已经达到顶峰，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥形。更高的利率，甚至是更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润毫无价值的花哨方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者想仔细审视一下自己的投资组合，问问自己是否有不合理高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场的晦涩部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像 Intuit (INTU) 这样的股票目前的交易价格是 16 倍？即使按照其通常8-9倍销售额的高标准，这也是异常高的。将其与该股的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、运营规模大、估值相对较低的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>安进 (AMGN) 是排名前 100 的股票之一，该公司目前的收益率超过 3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际 (PM)、博通 (AVGO) 和摩根士丹利 (MS.PK) 相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格收购具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的放松将打击消费，进而影响盈利结果。被高估的名字的重大失误意味着麻烦。当股票被高估时，负责任的做法是缩减股票的规模。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115112299","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.\nWith expanded unemployment set to end, student loan & mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.\nIn light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.\nI break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.\n\nIntroduction\nLogan–The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.\nThe weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.\nPutting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellowSeeking AlphaauthorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.\nSam–Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.\nKeep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.\nFrom Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:\nWe have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.\nFrom Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:\nAnd the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.\nThere will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.\nFood & transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.\nBut the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.\nThe Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium\nLogan–Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.\nEvictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.\nSam–The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.\nThe end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.\n\nSource:Dividend Freedom Tribe\nLooking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nNone seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nI believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.\nTaking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.\nIf we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.\nStudent Loan Forbearance\nLogan–The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.\nSam–When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).\nEnhanced Unemployment & Stimulus Checks\nLogan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.\nSam–Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.\nConclusion: What Is Yet to Come?\nLogan–High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.\nSam–The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.\nThis will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.\nInvestors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?\nNo need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&P 500 (SPY).\nFor instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.\nInvestors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.\nAmong those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nPhilip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.\nIn such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816717441,"gmtCreate":1630535877683,"gmtModify":1631889583226,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Still riding on the uptrend but wondering&nbsp;what’s the next catalyst?","listText":"Still riding on the uptrend but wondering&nbsp;what’s the next catalyst?","text":"Still riding on the uptrend but wondering what’s the next catalyst?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816717441","repostId":"1194937312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194937312","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630503428,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1194937312?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-01 21:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple shares rose nearly 2% in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘上涨近2%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194937312","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Apple shares rose nearly 2% in early trading.\n\n\nWolfe Research upgrades Apple from Underperform to P","content":"<p>Apple&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;early&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价早盘上涨近2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/074074cd9456d4c1a7776d87b07c5c72\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wolfe Research upgrades Apple&nbsp;from Underperform to Peer Perform on strong iPhone 12 demand trends that should provide a tailwind for the iPhone 13 lineup expected to launch later this month.</li>  <li>Analyst Jeffrey Kvaal says the demand was driven by healthy U.S. operator promotions and Huawei share gains. Additional fuel is coming from the tech giant's supply chain strength, which partially offsets the global component shortage, and the \"elevated\" average selling prices.</li>  <li>Kvaal raises Apple's price target from $135 to $155.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Wolfe Research将苹果从表现不佳上调至表现同行，原因是iPhone 12强劲的需求趋势，这将为预计将于本月晚些时候推出的iPhone 13系列提供推动力。</li><li>分析师杰弗里·夸尔 (Jeffrey Kvaal) 表示，需求是由美国运营商健康的促销和华为股价上涨推动的。额外的燃料来自这家科技巨头的供应链实力，这在一定程度上抵消了全球零部件短缺和“较高”的平均销售价格。</li><li>Kvaal 将苹果的目标价从 135 美元上调至 155 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple shares rose nearly 2% in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘上涨近2%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple shares rose nearly 2% in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘上涨近2%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-01 21:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;early&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价早盘上涨近2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/074074cd9456d4c1a7776d87b07c5c72\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wolfe Research upgrades Apple&nbsp;from Underperform to Peer Perform on strong iPhone 12 demand trends that should provide a tailwind for the iPhone 13 lineup expected to launch later this month.</li>  <li>Analyst Jeffrey Kvaal says the demand was driven by healthy U.S. operator promotions and Huawei share gains. Additional fuel is coming from the tech giant's supply chain strength, which partially offsets the global component shortage, and the \"elevated\" average selling prices.</li>  <li>Kvaal raises Apple's price target from $135 to $155.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Wolfe Research将苹果从表现不佳上调至表现同行，原因是iPhone 12强劲的需求趋势，这将为预计将于本月晚些时候推出的iPhone 13系列提供推动力。</li><li>分析师杰弗里·夸尔 (Jeffrey Kvaal) 表示，需求是由美国运营商健康的促销和华为股价上涨推动的。额外的燃料来自这家科技巨头的供应链实力，这在一定程度上抵消了全球零部件短缺和“较高”的平均销售价格。</li><li>Kvaal 将苹果的目标价从 135 美元上调至 155 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194937312","content_text":"Apple shares rose nearly 2% in early trading.\n\n\nWolfe Research upgrades Apple from Underperform to Peer Perform on strong iPhone 12 demand trends that should provide a tailwind for the iPhone 13 lineup expected to launch later this month.\nAnalyst Jeffrey Kvaal says the demand was driven by healthy U.S. operator promotions and Huawei share gains. Additional fuel is coming from the tech giant's supply chain strength, which partially offsets the global component shortage, and the \"elevated\" average selling prices.\nKvaal raises Apple's price target from $135 to $155.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816053566,"gmtCreate":1630456959555,"gmtModify":1631889583239,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Interest rate will remains low for longer period forsure","listText":"Interest rate will remains low for longer period forsure","text":"Interest rate will remains low for longer period forsure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816053566","repostId":"2164869989","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816059658,"gmtCreate":1630456875074,"gmtModify":1631889583252,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"But still online gaming has becomes daily activities among the young generation&nbsp;","listText":"But still online gaming has becomes daily activities among the young generation&nbsp;","text":"But still online gaming has becomes daily activities among the young generation","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816059658","repostId":"2163888412","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816027225,"gmtCreate":1630456770967,"gmtModify":1631889583264,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Such bumpy ride recently","listText":"Such bumpy ride recently","text":"Such bumpy ride recently","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816027225","repostId":"1131957400","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":830633467,"gmtCreate":1629069485559,"gmtModify":1633687730249,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Growth stocks normally have high PE and rich valuation; but they might eventually looks like bargain buy when EV dominates the car market","listText":"Growth stocks normally have high PE and rich valuation; but they might eventually looks like bargain buy when EV dominates the car market","text":"Growth stocks normally have high PE and rich valuation; but they might eventually looks like bargain buy when EV dominates the car market","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830633467","repostId":"2159214569","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159214569","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1628989290,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2159214569?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 09:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"How to value Nio's stock compared to Tesla, VW, Ford and other rivals<blockquote>与特斯拉、大众、福特和其他竞争对手相比，如何评估蔚来的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159214569","media":"MarkeWatch","summary":"Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.That might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.So where does Nio $$","content":"<p>Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来可能是一家相对较小的公司。但投资者看好这家中国电动汽车制造商的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459f713c5dfcf08752165d643a5f1463\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Nio store in downtown Shanghai. (Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>上海市区的一家蔚来商店。（盖蒂图片社）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc., which sells no cars in the U.S., has a market capitalization of $60.2 billion. By that measure, it is larger than Ford Motor Co., which was founded in 1903.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商蔚来在美国不销售汽车，市值为 602 亿美元。按照这个标准，它比成立于1903年的福特汽车公司还要大。</blockquote></p><p> That might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.</p><p><blockquote>作为投资者，这对您来说可能有意义——毕竟，蔚来是一家只销售电动汽车的创新型公司。福特是一家传统汽车制造商，正在努力迎头赶上，并最终全面过渡到电动汽车。蔚来的股价在过去一年上涨了两倍多，而福特的股价在过去十年暴跌后几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> So where does Nio <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, which reported second-quarter results after the stock market closes Wednesday, fit in an investment thesis? Below are screens showing how its stock valuation compares to vehicle production, and how that valuation relates to projected earnings through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>那么蔚来在哪里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(蔚来)$</a>周三股市收盘后公布了第二季度业绩，符合投资论点吗？下面的屏幕显示了其股票估值与汽车产量的比较，以及该估值与 2025 年的预计收益有何关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Doubling car production</b></p><p><blockquote><b>汽车产量翻倍</b></blockquote></p><p> For the second quarter, Nio delivered 21,896 vehicles for a 112% increase from a year earlier. The growth is impressive, but the total number of vehicles sold is still relatively small.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，蔚来交付了21,896辆汽车，同比增长112%。增长令人印象深刻，但销售的车辆总数仍然相对较少。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at the 10 largest auto makers by market capitalization, along with their second-quarter sales or delivery numbers (whichever was higher, if both were reported) and additional color below the table:</p><p><blockquote>以下是按市值计算的 10 家最大汽车制造商，以及它们第二季度的销量或交付量（如果两者都有报告，以较高者为准）以及表格下方的附加颜色：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9e9aed76c94544dbe44cde9f7c8bebc\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"761\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> You can see that those valuations are about the future, when innovators in the EV space -- Tesla Inc.&nbsp;and Nio, on this list -- may (or may not) become as large as legacy players.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>你可以看到，这些估值是关于未来的，届时电动汽车领域的创新者——这份名单上的特斯拉和蔚来——可能（也可能不会）变得与传统企业一样大。</blockquote></p><p> For now, Ford churns out mostly internal combustion engine&nbsp;vehicles at nearly 35 times the rate that Nio makes EVs.</p><p><blockquote>目前，福特生产的主要是内燃机汽车，几乎是蔚来生产电动汽车的 35 倍。</blockquote></p><p> One thing to be aware of is that the legacy auto makers don't all report their unit sales the same way. Most don't break out electric vehicle sales.</p><p><blockquote>需要注意的一件事是，传统汽车制造商并非都以相同的方式报告其销量。大多数不会突破电动汽车销售。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that do, definitions vary. For example, Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) reported that \"electrified vehicle\" sales made up 26.6% of total auto sales during the second quarter. But that category includes:</p><p><blockquote>其中，定义各不相同。例如，丰田汽车公司（7203.TO）报告称，第二季度“电动汽车”销量占汽车总销量的26.6%。但该类别包括：</blockquote></p><p> For Toyota, BEV made up only 0.2% of second-quarter sales, while they accounted for 100% of sales for Nio and Tesla. Toyota's PHEV sales made up 1.4% of the total.</p><p><blockquote>对于丰田来说，纯电动汽车仅占第二季度销量的0.2%，而它们占蔚来和特斯拉销量的100%。丰田的插电式混合动力汽车销量占总销量的1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Volkswagen AG reports electric-vehicle sales as including PHEV, which accounted for 6.7% of second-quarter sales, or BEV, which made up 4.4% of total sales. Those are impressive numbers: a combined 11.1%.</p><p><blockquote>大众汽车公司报告称，电动汽车销量包括插电混合动力汽车（占第二季度销量的 6.7%）和纯电动汽车（占总销量的 4.4%）。这些数字令人印象深刻：合计11.1%。</blockquote></p><p> For Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft , better known as BWM Group, a second-quarter breakdown of electric-vehicle deliveries isn't yet available, but for the first half of 2021, 153,243 all-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles were delivered, or 11.4% of total deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft（更广为人知的名称是 BWM Group）来说，第二季度电动汽车交付明细尚未公布，但 2021 年上半年，交付了 153,243 辆全电动或插电式混合动力汽车，占总交付量的 11.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to earnings estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值与盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> For companies at early stages, comparisons of price-to-earnings ratios may not mean very much. Such companies are focusing on growth rather than profits. An example of this has been Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>, which has traded at a high P/E for decades as it has worked to expand into new lines of business, at the expense of the bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>对于处于早期阶段的公司来说，市盈率的比较可能意义不大。这些公司关注的是增长而不是利润。亚马逊公司就是一个例子。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(亚马逊)$</a>几十年来，该公司一直以高市盈率为代价，努力扩展到新的业务领域。</blockquote></p><p> A high P/E ratio can reflect investors' enthusiasm for innovation and in the case of EVs, a political consensus for transforming the industry. So Nio and Tesla trade at much higher P/E ratios than the legacy auto makers.</p><p><blockquote>高市盈率可以反映投资者对创新的热情，就电动汽车而言，也可以反映行业转型的政治共识。因此，蔚来和特斯拉的市盈率远高于传统汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> Then again, very low P/E may show too much contempt among investors for the older manufacturers, as they use their cash flow from continuing massive sales of traditional vehicles to fund their development of EVs. Opportunities may be highlighted.</p><p><blockquote>话又说回来，非常低的市盈率可能表明投资者对老牌制造商过于蔑视，因为他们利用传统汽车持续大量销售的现金流来资助电动汽车的开发。机会可能会被强调。</blockquote></p><p> Normally a forward P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the share price by a rolling consensus estimate of earnings per share for 12 months. This isn't available for all the companies listed here, so we're using consensus estimates for net income for calendar 2022.</p><p><blockquote>通常，远期市盈率的计算方法是将股价除以 12 个月每股收益的滚动共识估计。这并不适用于此处列出的所有公司，因此我们使用 2022 年净利润的共识估计。</blockquote></p><p> First, here are P/E ratios based on current market caps and consensus 2022 estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. The table includes the annual estimates going out to 2025, and also a P/E based on current market caps and the 2025 estimates:</p><p><blockquote>首先，以下是基于当前市值和 FactSet 调查的分析师对 2022 年普遍预期的市盈率。该表包括到 2025 年的年度预测，以及基于当前市值和 2025 年预测的市盈率：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459439c822252d09b3dfb73cc5d51211\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"743\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> Nio is expected to become profitable in 2023. Looking out to 2024, its forward P/E is lower than that of Tesla. To put the forward P/E valuations in perspective, the S&amp;P 500 Index trades for a weighted 20.5 times consensus 2022 EPS estimates.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来预计将于 2023 年实现盈利。展望2024年，其远期市盈率低于特斯拉。为了正确看待未来的市盈率估值，标普500指数的交易加权为 2022 年每股收益共识预期的 20.5 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售额估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Forward price-to-sales estimates might be more useful for early-stage companies that are showing low profits or net losses. Then again, the same distortions apply: Investors love the pure-play EV makers now, and may be paying too much for them when you consider that shares of Nio have more than tripled over the past year, while Tesla's stock has risen 150%.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr><tr></tr></tbody></table>对于利润或净亏损较低的早期公司来说，远期销售价格估算可能更有用。话又说回来，同样的扭曲也适用：投资者现在喜欢纯粹的电动汽车制造商，当你考虑到蔚来的股价在过去一年里上涨了两倍多，而特斯拉的股价上涨了150%时，他们可能会为它们支付过高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a similar set of data driving price-to-sale ratios, again using current market caps (in the first table at the top of this article) and consensus full-calendar-year estimates in millions of U.S. dollars:</p><p><blockquote>以下是一组类似的驱动市销率的数据，再次使用当前市值（在本文顶部的第一个表格中）和以百万美元为单位的全年共识估计值：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c0b7d002e07914e42fcdf0e624b25c\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"668\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> For reference, the S&amp;P 500 trades for 2.7 times its consensus 2022 sales estimate.</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，标普500的交易价格是其 2022 年销量普遍预期的 2.7 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> <b>Analysts' opinions</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><b>分析师意见</b></blockquote></p><p> Here's a summary of opinion of the 10 auto makers among analysts polled by FactSet. For companies with primary listings outside the U.S., the local tickers are used. All share prices and targets are in local currencies:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 FactSet 调查的分析师对 10 家汽车制造商的意见摘要。对于主要在美国境外上市的公司，使用当地股票代码。所有股价和目标均以当地货币计算：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f38063eabf2e93f73561a0454a44ac\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"639\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>How to value Nio's stock compared to Tesla, VW, Ford and other rivals<blockquote>与特斯拉、大众、福特和其他竞争对手相比，如何评估蔚来的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHow to value Nio's stock compared to Tesla, VW, Ford and other rivals<blockquote>与特斯拉、大众、福特和其他竞争对手相比，如何评估蔚来的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarkeWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-15 09:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来可能是一家相对较小的公司。但投资者看好这家中国电动汽车制造商的前景。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459f713c5dfcf08752165d643a5f1463\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"525\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Nio store in downtown Shanghai. (Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>上海市区的一家蔚来商店。（盖蒂图片社）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Chinese electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc., which sells no cars in the U.S., has a market capitalization of $60.2 billion. By that measure, it is larger than Ford Motor Co., which was founded in 1903.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商蔚来在美国不销售汽车，市值为 602 亿美元。按照这个标准，它比成立于1903年的福特汽车公司还要大。</blockquote></p><p> That might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.</p><p><blockquote>作为投资者，这对您来说可能有意义——毕竟，蔚来是一家只销售电动汽车的创新型公司。福特是一家传统汽车制造商，正在努力迎头赶上，并最终全面过渡到电动汽车。蔚来的股价在过去一年上涨了两倍多，而福特的股价在过去十年暴跌后几乎翻了一番。</blockquote></p><p> So where does Nio <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(NIO)$</a>, which reported second-quarter results after the stock market closes Wednesday, fit in an investment thesis? Below are screens showing how its stock valuation compares to vehicle production, and how that valuation relates to projected earnings through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>那么蔚来在哪里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$(蔚来)$</a>周三股市收盘后公布了第二季度业绩，符合投资论点吗？下面的屏幕显示了其股票估值与汽车产量的比较，以及该估值与 2025 年的预计收益有何关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Doubling car production</b></p><p><blockquote><b>汽车产量翻倍</b></blockquote></p><p> For the second quarter, Nio delivered 21,896 vehicles for a 112% increase from a year earlier. The growth is impressive, but the total number of vehicles sold is still relatively small.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度，蔚来交付了21,896辆汽车，同比增长112%。增长令人印象深刻，但销售的车辆总数仍然相对较少。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a look at the 10 largest auto makers by market capitalization, along with their second-quarter sales or delivery numbers (whichever was higher, if both were reported) and additional color below the table:</p><p><blockquote>以下是按市值计算的 10 家最大汽车制造商，以及它们第二季度的销量或交付量（如果两者都有报告，以较高者为准）以及表格下方的附加颜色：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9e9aed76c94544dbe44cde9f7c8bebc\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"761\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> You can see that those valuations are about the future, when innovators in the EV space -- Tesla Inc.&nbsp;and Nio, on this list -- may (or may not) become as large as legacy players.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>你可以看到，这些估值是关于未来的，届时电动汽车领域的创新者——这份名单上的特斯拉和蔚来——可能（也可能不会）变得与传统企业一样大。</blockquote></p><p> For now, Ford churns out mostly internal combustion engine&nbsp;vehicles at nearly 35 times the rate that Nio makes EVs.</p><p><blockquote>目前，福特生产的主要是内燃机汽车，几乎是蔚来生产电动汽车的 35 倍。</blockquote></p><p> One thing to be aware of is that the legacy auto makers don't all report their unit sales the same way. Most don't break out electric vehicle sales.</p><p><blockquote>需要注意的一件事是，传统汽车制造商并非都以相同的方式报告其销量。大多数不会突破电动汽车销售。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that do, definitions vary. For example, Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) reported that \"electrified vehicle\" sales made up 26.6% of total auto sales during the second quarter. But that category includes:</p><p><blockquote>其中，定义各不相同。例如，丰田汽车公司（7203.TO）报告称，第二季度“电动汽车”销量占汽车总销量的26.6%。但该类别包括：</blockquote></p><p> For Toyota, BEV made up only 0.2% of second-quarter sales, while they accounted for 100% of sales for Nio and Tesla. Toyota's PHEV sales made up 1.4% of the total.</p><p><blockquote>对于丰田来说，纯电动汽车仅占第二季度销量的0.2%，而它们占蔚来和特斯拉销量的100%。丰田的插电式混合动力汽车销量占总销量的1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Volkswagen AG reports electric-vehicle sales as including PHEV, which accounted for 6.7% of second-quarter sales, or BEV, which made up 4.4% of total sales. Those are impressive numbers: a combined 11.1%.</p><p><blockquote>大众汽车公司报告称，电动汽车销量包括插电混合动力汽车（占第二季度销量的 6.7%）和纯电动汽车（占总销量的 4.4%）。这些数字令人印象深刻：合计11.1%。</blockquote></p><p> For Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft , better known as BWM Group, a second-quarter breakdown of electric-vehicle deliveries isn't yet available, but for the first half of 2021, 153,243 all-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles were delivered, or 11.4% of total deliveries.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft（更广为人知的名称是 BWM Group）来说，第二季度电动汽车交付明细尚未公布，但 2021 年上半年，交付了 153,243 辆全电动或插电式混合动力汽车，占总交付量的 11.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to earnings estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值与盈利预测</b></blockquote></p><p> For companies at early stages, comparisons of price-to-earnings ratios may not mean very much. Such companies are focusing on growth rather than profits. An example of this has been Amazon.com Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(AMZN)$</a>, which has traded at a high P/E for decades as it has worked to expand into new lines of business, at the expense of the bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>对于处于早期阶段的公司来说，市盈率的比较可能意义不大。这些公司关注的是增长而不是利润。亚马逊公司就是一个例子。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$(亚马逊)$</a>几十年来，该公司一直以高市盈率为代价，努力扩展到新的业务领域。</blockquote></p><p> A high P/E ratio can reflect investors' enthusiasm for innovation and in the case of EVs, a political consensus for transforming the industry. So Nio and Tesla trade at much higher P/E ratios than the legacy auto makers.</p><p><blockquote>高市盈率可以反映投资者对创新的热情，就电动汽车而言，也可以反映行业转型的政治共识。因此，蔚来和特斯拉的市盈率远高于传统汽车制造商。</blockquote></p><p> Then again, very low P/E may show too much contempt among investors for the older manufacturers, as they use their cash flow from continuing massive sales of traditional vehicles to fund their development of EVs. Opportunities may be highlighted.</p><p><blockquote>话又说回来，非常低的市盈率可能表明投资者对老牌制造商过于蔑视，因为他们利用传统汽车持续大量销售的现金流来资助电动汽车的开发。机会可能会被强调。</blockquote></p><p> Normally a forward P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the share price by a rolling consensus estimate of earnings per share for 12 months. This isn't available for all the companies listed here, so we're using consensus estimates for net income for calendar 2022.</p><p><blockquote>通常，远期市盈率的计算方法是将股价除以 12 个月每股收益的滚动共识估计。这并不适用于此处列出的所有公司，因此我们使用 2022 年净利润的共识估计。</blockquote></p><p> First, here are P/E ratios based on current market caps and consensus 2022 estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. The table includes the annual estimates going out to 2025, and also a P/E based on current market caps and the 2025 estimates:</p><p><blockquote>首先，以下是基于当前市值和 FactSet 调查的分析师对 2022 年普遍预期的市盈率。该表包括到 2025 年的年度预测，以及基于当前市值和 2025 年预测的市盈率：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/459439c822252d09b3dfb73cc5d51211\" tg-width=\"1058\" tg-height=\"743\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> Nio is expected to become profitable in 2023. Looking out to 2024, its forward P/E is lower than that of Tesla. To put the forward P/E valuations in perspective, the S&amp;P 500 Index trades for a weighted 20.5 times consensus 2022 EPS estimates.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来预计将于 2023 年实现盈利。展望2024年，其远期市盈率低于特斯拉。为了正确看待未来的市盈率估值，标普500指数的交易加权为 2022 年每股收益共识预期的 20.5 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation to sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>销售额估值</b></blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> Forward price-to-sales estimates might be more useful for early-stage companies that are showing low profits or net losses. Then again, the same distortions apply: Investors love the pure-play EV makers now, and may be paying too much for them when you consider that shares of Nio have more than tripled over the past year, while Tesla's stock has risen 150%.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr><tr></tr></tbody></table>对于利润或净亏损较低的早期公司来说，远期销售价格估算可能更有用。话又说回来，同样的扭曲也适用：投资者现在喜欢纯粹的电动汽车制造商，当你考虑到蔚来的股价在过去一年里上涨了两倍多，而特斯拉的股价上涨了150%时，他们可能会为它们支付过高的价格。</blockquote></p><p> Here's a similar set of data driving price-to-sale ratios, again using current market caps (in the first table at the top of this article) and consensus full-calendar-year estimates in millions of U.S. dollars:</p><p><blockquote>以下是一组类似的驱动市销率的数据，再次使用当前市值（在本文顶部的第一个表格中）和以百万美元为单位的全年共识估计值：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8c0b7d002e07914e42fcdf0e624b25c\" tg-width=\"1051\" tg-height=\"668\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> For reference, the S&amp;P 500 trades for 2.7 times its consensus 2022 sales estimate.</p><p><blockquote>作为参考，标普500的交易价格是其 2022 年销量普遍预期的 2.7 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> <b>Analysts' opinions</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table><b>分析师意见</b></blockquote></p><p> Here's a summary of opinion of the 10 auto makers among analysts polled by FactSet. For companies with primary listings outside the U.S., the local tickers are used. All share prices and targets are in local currencies:</p><p><blockquote>以下是 FactSet 调查的分析师对 10 家汽车制造商的意见摘要。对于主要在美国境外上市的公司，使用当地股票代码。所有股价和目标均以当地货币计算：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f38063eabf2e93f73561a0454a44ac\" tg-width=\"1059\" tg-height=\"639\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nio-releases-earnings-wednesday-heres-how-to-value-its-stock-compared-to-tesla-ford-and-other-rivals-11628716814?mod=mw_quote_news\">MarkeWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HMC":"本田汽车","STLA":"Stellantis NV","NIO":"蔚来","GM":"通用汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","F":"福特汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/nio-releases-earnings-wednesday-heres-how-to-value-its-stock-compared-to-tesla-ford-and-other-rivals-11628716814?mod=mw_quote_news","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159214569","content_text":"Nio may be a relatively small company. But investors are bullish on the Chinese electric-vehicle maker's prospects.\nA Nio store in downtown Shanghai. (Getty Images)\nChinese electric-vehicle maker Nio Inc., which sells no cars in the U.S., has a market capitalization of $60.2 billion. By that measure, it is larger than Ford Motor Co., which was founded in 1903.\nThat might make sense to you as an investor -- after all, Nio is an innovative company that sells only electric vehicles. Ford is a legacy auto maker that is working to catch up and eventually make a full transition to electric vehicles. Shares of Nio have more than tripled in the past year, while Ford's have almost doubled after cratering in the previous decade.\nSo where does Nio $(NIO)$, which reported second-quarter results after the stock market closes Wednesday, fit in an investment thesis? Below are screens showing how its stock valuation compares to vehicle production, and how that valuation relates to projected earnings through 2025.\nDoubling car production\nFor the second quarter, Nio delivered 21,896 vehicles for a 112% increase from a year earlier. The growth is impressive, but the total number of vehicles sold is still relatively small.\nHere's a look at the 10 largest auto makers by market capitalization, along with their second-quarter sales or delivery numbers (whichever was higher, if both were reported) and additional color below the table:\n\n\n\n\n\n\nYou can see that those valuations are about the future, when innovators in the EV space -- Tesla Inc. and Nio, on this list -- may (or may not) become as large as legacy players.\nFor now, Ford churns out mostly internal combustion engine vehicles at nearly 35 times the rate that Nio makes EVs.\nOne thing to be aware of is that the legacy auto makers don't all report their unit sales the same way. Most don't break out electric vehicle sales.\nAmong those that do, definitions vary. For example, Toyota Motor Corp. (7203.TO) reported that \"electrified vehicle\" sales made up 26.6% of total auto sales during the second quarter. But that category includes:\nFor Toyota, BEV made up only 0.2% of second-quarter sales, while they accounted for 100% of sales for Nio and Tesla. Toyota's PHEV sales made up 1.4% of the total.\nVolkswagen AG reports electric-vehicle sales as including PHEV, which accounted for 6.7% of second-quarter sales, or BEV, which made up 4.4% of total sales. Those are impressive numbers: a combined 11.1%.\nFor Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft , better known as BWM Group, a second-quarter breakdown of electric-vehicle deliveries isn't yet available, but for the first half of 2021, 153,243 all-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles were delivered, or 11.4% of total deliveries.\nValuation to earnings estimates\nFor companies at early stages, comparisons of price-to-earnings ratios may not mean very much. Such companies are focusing on growth rather than profits. An example of this has been Amazon.com Inc. $(AMZN)$, which has traded at a high P/E for decades as it has worked to expand into new lines of business, at the expense of the bottom line.\nA high P/E ratio can reflect investors' enthusiasm for innovation and in the case of EVs, a political consensus for transforming the industry. So Nio and Tesla trade at much higher P/E ratios than the legacy auto makers.\nThen again, very low P/E may show too much contempt among investors for the older manufacturers, as they use their cash flow from continuing massive sales of traditional vehicles to fund their development of EVs. Opportunities may be highlighted.\nNormally a forward P/E ratio is calculated by dividing the share price by a rolling consensus estimate of earnings per share for 12 months. This isn't available for all the companies listed here, so we're using consensus estimates for net income for calendar 2022.\nFirst, here are P/E ratios based on current market caps and consensus 2022 estimates among analysts polled by FactSet. The table includes the annual estimates going out to 2025, and also a P/E based on current market caps and the 2025 estimates:\n\nNio is expected to become profitable in 2023. Looking out to 2024, its forward P/E is lower than that of Tesla. To put the forward P/E valuations in perspective, the S&P 500 Index trades for a weighted 20.5 times consensus 2022 EPS estimates.\nValuation to sales\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForward price-to-sales estimates might be more useful for early-stage companies that are showing low profits or net losses. Then again, the same distortions apply: Investors love the pure-play EV makers now, and may be paying too much for them when you consider that shares of Nio have more than tripled over the past year, while Tesla's stock has risen 150%.\nHere's a similar set of data driving price-to-sale ratios, again using current market caps (in the first table at the top of this article) and consensus full-calendar-year estimates in millions of U.S. dollars:\n\nFor reference, the S&P 500 trades for 2.7 times its consensus 2022 sales estimate.\n\n\n\n\n\nAnalysts' opinions\nHere's a summary of opinion of the 10 auto makers among analysts polled by FactSet. For companies with primary listings outside the U.S., the local tickers are used. All share prices and targets are in local currencies:","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HMC":0.9,"F":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"STLA":0.9,"GM":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1089,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":861444685,"gmtCreate":1632534650747,"gmtModify":1632710112756,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Just human behavior- you’ll try to exit if the future looks bad","listText":"Just human behavior- you’ll try to exit if the future looks bad","text":"Just human behavior- you’ll try to exit if the future looks bad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861444685","repostId":"1187521937","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3668,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":815353185,"gmtCreate":1630648190747,"gmtModify":1631889583220,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It’s easy to advocate&nbsp;picking high quality stocks with solid profits &amp; dividends but it’ll be even better&nbsp;if you may list down a number of them which tick the boxes","listText":"It’s easy to advocate&nbsp;picking high quality stocks with solid profits &amp; dividends but it’ll be even better&nbsp;if you may list down a number of them which tick the boxes","text":"It’s easy to advocate picking high quality stocks with solid profits & dividends but it’ll be even better if you may list down a number of them which tick the boxes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815353185","repostId":"1115112299","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115112299","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630641559,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1115112299?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>当2022年数万亿美元的刺激计划用完时会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115112299","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业率扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款延期即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022 年股市盈利预期可能过高。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报主张。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者山姆·科瓦奇（Sam Kovacs）分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府采取了前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/暂停驱逐、购买力平价和提高失业救济金。到目前为止，这一努力似乎取得了成功，尽管批评人士指出，这导致了通货膨胀的大幅上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远维持3万亿美元的赤字，至少每个人都不会通过相对于收入更高的消费价格来隐性支付。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，用刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自己的生产力运行时——而不是依靠临时转移支付——会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入的记录（2021年每股200美元至205美元之间，而2019年之前的记录为163美元）。华尔街分析师还预计标普500 2022 年每股收益约为 215 美元，这将是又一个纪录。当你计算生产率和经济产出时，情况并没有那么好，这有助于解释为什么现在有如此多的商品和服务短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能表明企业在中期可以赚取多少钱（剔除消费者花费临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收益数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这大约有50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多投资者轻松赚钱，涌入低信念、高势头的股票，解除刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合余额造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是伙计<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管山姆和我住在德克萨斯州郊区，相隔地球的另一边，但我对市场的看法却惊人地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>在美联储对大流行病做出反应的最初几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话又说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早推出刺激措施和冒着通胀失控的风险之间取得平衡并非易事。政府研究了之前的崩溃情况，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是 “暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但任何参加过 Econ 101 的人都知道，通货膨胀会自食其力。起初，公司是反动的，但后来他们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔 (HRL) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了许多定价措施来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，可能会采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉 (CAG) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的初始通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度食品通货膨胀不会短缺。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比价格，这继续导致总体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食物和交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以申请学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激措施不可能永远持续下去。随着达美航空减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消失时会发生什么？这就是我们将在文章的其余部分讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/止赎</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的暂停驱逐令。根据我最近的统计，目前大约有150万个家庭参与了延期计划（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国大约有5000万个抵押贷款。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠还款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终卖掉，收回股权，搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款资产为负，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在情况并非如此——我不认为止赎会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，大约有600-700万套房屋在典型的一年内被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月内出售，这对于那些与房屋短缺作斗争的人和那些无法支付自己拥有的房屋的人来说将是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回升至过去 10 年的平均约 4%，同时人们正在抛售他们一直在忍耐的房屋，价格将会下降更多。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠多余的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会急剧缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠房租，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽略刺激措施放松的盈利预测并没有恰当地说明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐暂停令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该蜂拥投资住宅房地产投资信托基金。如下图 Essex Property (ESS) 的 MAD 图表所示，已从严重低估回到历史上的高估。我们之前建议投资者卖出 ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也出现了同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities (AVB) 历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，没有一家公司比卡姆登财产信托 (CPT) 更被高估，如果市场情绪发生变化，该公司很容易下跌 1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经通过了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去的几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的： “买谣言/卖新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆会给一部分人的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在 30 岁以下，这一群体的支出占收入的比例高于 50 岁的人为退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是用税后美元支付的，这就像反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们从不偿还贷款中获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费，要么投资于加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站（GME）等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上层专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事行业并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配给社会阶层较高的人（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是超过 1.7 万亿美元的美国学生贷款，而在这 21 个月期间，那些欠下贷款的人通常不会偿还这些贷款。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在更高。2022 年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最简单的刺激形式。由于大部分贷款都是联邦贷款，因此暂停还款并不会对任何人造成明显的伤害，以至于无法抱怨。由于发放并不直接，批评者也不像对经济刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的钱，无论是股票还是加密货币，都会在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时拿出来。这是否会对市场产生足够的影响值得怀疑，但随着大部分人口不得不恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算的一天。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人来说将是严峻的。至少你还能在 AMC 影院（AMC）看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激支票</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根-加剧的失业率将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法获得失业救济。这是联邦政府每周向失业者发放的33亿美元，这反过来又比12个月前少得多。当它消失后，它将成为控制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普执政之前的付款之外，一个收入中位数的四口之家在3月份将获得5600美元的刺激支票。这些将不再流通，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但它目前的形式也将于 12 月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们很可能会看到 800 万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终会在 1000 万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在接下来的几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：什么还没有到来？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊 (AMZN)、Zoom Video (ZM) 和 Peloton (PTON) 等公司高调的盈利低迷表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于受益于疫情带来的暂时变化的公司来说，好日子将永远持续下去。这在宏观层面上是否属实是一种很大的可能性，而且根据今年剩余时间的盈利结果，这可能最终会成为现实。虽然市场价格一定会因此大幅下跌，但不可否认的是，在过去6-12个月里，市场的风险回报权衡已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们两种观点中，一个好的辩护是投资于高质量的公司，而不是基本面平庸的热门高动量股票，并采取长远的眼光。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>通货膨胀列车已经离开车站。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激引发了一个通胀周期，通胀周期将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。Covid 德尔塔变异毒株软化了一些经济指标，如外出就餐或旅行，但由于该国的病例数已经达到顶峰，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥形。更高的利率，甚至是更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润毫无价值的花哨方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者想仔细审视一下自己的投资组合，问问自己是否有不合理高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场的晦涩部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像 Intuit (INTU) 这样的股票目前的交易价格是 16 倍？即使按照其通常8-9倍销售额的高标准，这也是异常高的。将其与该股的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、运营规模大、估值相对较低的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>安进 (AMGN) 是排名前 100 的股票之一，该公司目前的收益率超过 3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际 (PM)、博通 (AVGO) 和摩根士丹利 (MS.PK) 相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格收购具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的放松将打击消费，进而影响盈利结果。被高估的名字的重大失误意味着麻烦。当股票被高估时，负责任的做法是缩减股票的规模。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>当2022年数万亿美元的刺激计划用完时会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>当2022年数万亿美元的刺激计划用完时会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 11:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业率扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款延期即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022 年股市盈利预期可能过高。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报主张。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者山姆·科瓦奇（Sam Kovacs）分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府采取了前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/暂停驱逐、购买力平价和提高失业救济金。到目前为止，这一努力似乎取得了成功，尽管批评人士指出，这导致了通货膨胀的大幅上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远维持3万亿美元的赤字，至少每个人都不会通过相对于收入更高的消费价格来隐性支付。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，用刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自己的生产力运行时——而不是依靠临时转移支付——会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入的记录（2021年每股200美元至205美元之间，而2019年之前的记录为163美元）。华尔街分析师还预计标普500 2022 年每股收益约为 215 美元，这将是又一个纪录。当你计算生产率和经济产出时，情况并没有那么好，这有助于解释为什么现在有如此多的商品和服务短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能表明企业在中期可以赚取多少钱（剔除消费者花费临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收益数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这大约有50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多投资者轻松赚钱，涌入低信念、高势头的股票，解除刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合余额造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是伙计<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管山姆和我住在德克萨斯州郊区，相隔地球的另一边，但我对市场的看法却惊人地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>在美联储对大流行病做出反应的最初几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话又说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早推出刺激措施和冒着通胀失控的风险之间取得平衡并非易事。政府研究了之前的崩溃情况，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是 “暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但任何参加过 Econ 101 的人都知道，通货膨胀会自食其力。起初，公司是反动的，但后来他们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔 (HRL) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了许多定价措施来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，可能会采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉 (CAG) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的初始通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度食品通货膨胀不会短缺。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比价格，这继续导致总体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食物和交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以申请学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激措施不可能永远持续下去。随着达美航空减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消失时会发生什么？这就是我们将在文章的其余部分讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/止赎</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的暂停驱逐令。根据我最近的统计，目前大约有150万个家庭参与了延期计划（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国大约有5000万个抵押贷款。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠还款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终卖掉，收回股权，搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款资产为负，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在情况并非如此——我不认为止赎会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，大约有600-700万套房屋在典型的一年内被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月内出售，这对于那些与房屋短缺作斗争的人和那些无法支付自己拥有的房屋的人来说将是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回升至过去 10 年的平均约 4%，同时人们正在抛售他们一直在忍耐的房屋，价格将会下降更多。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠多余的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会急剧缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠房租，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽略刺激措施放松的盈利预测并没有恰当地说明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐暂停令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该蜂拥投资住宅房地产投资信托基金。如下图 Essex Property (ESS) 的 MAD 图表所示，已从严重低估回到历史上的高估。我们之前建议投资者卖出 ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也出现了同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities (AVB) 历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，没有一家公司比卡姆登财产信托 (CPT) 更被高估，如果市场情绪发生变化，该公司很容易下跌 1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经通过了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去的几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的： “买谣言/卖新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆会给一部分人的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在 30 岁以下，这一群体的支出占收入的比例高于 50 岁的人为退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是用税后美元支付的，这就像反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们从不偿还贷款中获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费，要么投资于加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站（GME）等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上层专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事行业并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配给社会阶层较高的人（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是超过 1.7 万亿美元的美国学生贷款，而在这 21 个月期间，那些欠下贷款的人通常不会偿还这些贷款。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在更高。2022 年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最简单的刺激形式。由于大部分贷款都是联邦贷款，因此暂停还款并不会对任何人造成明显的伤害，以至于无法抱怨。由于发放并不直接，批评者也不像对经济刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的钱，无论是股票还是加密货币，都会在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时拿出来。这是否会对市场产生足够的影响值得怀疑，但随着大部分人口不得不恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算的一天。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人来说将是严峻的。至少你还能在 AMC 影院（AMC）看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激支票</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根-加剧的失业率将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法获得失业救济。这是联邦政府每周向失业者发放的33亿美元，这反过来又比12个月前少得多。当它消失后，它将成为控制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普执政之前的付款之外，一个收入中位数的四口之家在3月份将获得5600美元的刺激支票。这些将不再流通，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但它目前的形式也将于 12 月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们很可能会看到 800 万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终会在 1000 万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在接下来的几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：什么还没有到来？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊 (AMZN)、Zoom Video (ZM) 和 Peloton (PTON) 等公司高调的盈利低迷表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于受益于疫情带来的暂时变化的公司来说，好日子将永远持续下去。这在宏观层面上是否属实是一种很大的可能性，而且根据今年剩余时间的盈利结果，这可能最终会成为现实。虽然市场价格一定会因此大幅下跌，但不可否认的是，在过去6-12个月里，市场的风险回报权衡已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们两种观点中，一个好的辩护是投资于高质量的公司，而不是基本面平庸的热门高动量股票，并采取长远的眼光。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>通货膨胀列车已经离开车站。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激引发了一个通胀周期，通胀周期将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。Covid 德尔塔变异毒株软化了一些经济指标，如外出就餐或旅行，但由于该国的病例数已经达到顶峰，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥形。更高的利率，甚至是更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润毫无价值的花哨方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者想仔细审视一下自己的投资组合，问问自己是否有不合理高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场的晦涩部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像 Intuit (INTU) 这样的股票目前的交易价格是 16 倍？即使按照其通常8-9倍销售额的高标准，这也是异常高的。将其与该股的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、运营规模大、估值相对较低的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>安进 (AMGN) 是排名前 100 的股票之一，该公司目前的收益率超过 3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际 (PM)、博通 (AVGO) 和摩根士丹利 (MS.PK) 相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格收购具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的放松将打击消费，进而影响盈利结果。被高估的名字的重大失误意味着麻烦。当股票被高估时，负责任的做法是缩减股票的规模。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115112299","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.\nWith expanded unemployment set to end, student loan & mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.\nIn light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.\nI break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.\n\nIntroduction\nLogan–The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.\nThe weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.\nPutting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellowSeeking AlphaauthorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.\nSam–Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.\nKeep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.\nFrom Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:\nWe have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.\nFrom Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:\nAnd the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.\nThere will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.\nFood & transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.\nBut the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.\nThe Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium\nLogan–Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.\nEvictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.\nSam–The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.\nThe end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.\n\nSource:Dividend Freedom Tribe\nLooking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nNone seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nI believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.\nTaking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.\nIf we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.\nStudent Loan Forbearance\nLogan–The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.\nSam–When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).\nEnhanced Unemployment & Stimulus Checks\nLogan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.\nSam–Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.\nConclusion: What Is Yet to Come?\nLogan–High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.\nSam–The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.\nThis will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.\nInvestors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?\nNo need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&P 500 (SPY).\nFor instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.\nInvestors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.\nAmong those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nPhilip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.\nIn such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":822181638,"gmtCreate":1634101467192,"gmtModify":1634106317148,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Timing the market is just like betting in casino - better stick to your own strategy and try not to drive by your emotion&nbsp;","listText":"Timing the market is just like betting in casino - better stick to your own strategy and try not to drive by your emotion&nbsp;","text":"Timing the market is just like betting in casino - better stick to your own strategy and try not to drive by your emotion","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/822181638","repostId":"1198930462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198930462","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1634044920,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198930462?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-12 21:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市开始时你不会知道</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198930462","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n","content":"<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p><p><blockquote>制定一个能够度过熊市的策略至关重要</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p><p><blockquote>14年前的本周，即2007年10月9日，股市在金融危机引发的熊市开始之前触及牛市高点。</blockquote></p><p> I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p><p><blockquote>我敢打赌，那天你脑子里最后一件事就是新的熊市是否开始了。相反，您无疑正在分享伴随着又一个牛市新高的繁荣。标普500比五年前牛市开始时的水平高出 120%。</blockquote></p><p> And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国历史上最严重的熊市之一就在那一天开始了。随后16个月的标普500将<i>失去</i>55%.</blockquote></p><p> This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p><p><blockquote>这条记忆之路非常重要，因为它提醒我们，牛市顶部并不能被实时识别。直到事实证明，牛市已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p><p><blockquote>许多客户强烈不同意我的观点，坚称他们事实上确实很清楚牛市在 2007 年 10 月达到顶峰。但他们几乎可以肯定是在改写历史，这是可以理解的。改写过去是人之常情，让事情看起来会像以前那样发展。</blockquote></p><p> But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p><p><blockquote>但2007-2009年熊市的开始在当时一点也不明显。</blockquote></p><p> If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p><p><blockquote>如果您有任何疑问，请考虑我公司每天监控的近 100 个短期股票市场计时器子集中的平均推荐股票敞口。(平均而言，HSNSI 指数在牛市见顶的当天达到最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p><p><blockquote>这在随附的图表中说明。它平均了过去 40 年每次牛市顶部之前和之后六周的 HSNSI（根据 Ned Davis Research 维护的日历）。如您所见，HSNSI 在平均牛市的最后六周上涨了 20 个百分点，然后在随后的熊市的前六周下跌了 40 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，专业市场计时器平均在他们应该最悲观的日子里最乐观。他们是整天、每天跟踪市场的专业人士。如果他们不能做得更好，那你凭什么认为你可以？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Comments of market timers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场计时器的评论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p><p><blockquote>我认为这些统计数据令人信服。但为了锦上添花，请考虑时事通讯编辑在 2007 年 10 月市场顶部当天或之前几天发表的具有代表性的评论样本：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>  <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>  <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>  <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>  <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>  <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li> </ul> Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>“仔细一听，就能听到隆隆声，那隆隆声是这次大牛市第三阶段的遥远雷声……我看到好时光滚滚而来，我真的看到了。”</li><li>“我已经有一段时间没有对用我们的大钱获得巨额利润的潜力充满信心了。因此，如果你还没有这样做，那么你必须尽快把钱投入到这个[股票]市场中。时间不等人，你的钱也在等着你。那就去做吧。”</li><li>“全球股市的牛市不仅在继续，而且.还在进入一个强劲的阶段.现在美联储已经挥舞着降息的旗帜，真的没有什么能阻挡市场了。”</li><li>“道琼斯指数 16,000 点来了.在我们看来，未来 3 到 6 个月股市将进入竞争状态。”[2007 年 10 月牛市顶部当天道琼斯指数为 14,165 点。]</li><li>“熊市周期性跌幅超过 20% 的风险并未出现在雷达屏幕上。”</li><li>“长期牛市是完好无损的.你应该在任何疲软的时候买入”。</li></ul>他们的热情是显而易见的，不是吗？不管你今天会给自己讲什么故事，你那天的感受都很有可能是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment lesson</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资教训</b></blockquote></p><p> The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p><p><blockquote>投资含义很明确：不要指望能够减少股票敞口来避开熊市。</blockquote></p><p> This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么你应该设计并遵循一个可以度过熊市的策略。如果你在牛市期间100%投资，直到标普500见顶，然后在熊市期间100%持有现金，那么它的收益不一定能达到理论上的最高收益。但是在现实世界中没有人达到理论上的最大值。</blockquote></p><p> The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，完美是善的敌人。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p><p><blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道熊市是否已经开始。标普500创下迄今为止的牛市高点已经一个多月了，目前的交易价格比该高点低了近 3%。</blockquote></p><p> But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p><p><blockquote>但如果它已经开始，我们要等到几个月后，也就是市场价格大幅下跌的时候才能确定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市开始时你不会知道</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy you won’t know it when a bear market starts<blockquote>为什么熊市开始时你不会知道</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-12 21:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market</p><p><blockquote>制定一个能够度过熊市的策略至关重要</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82a6b41119b11a31337948b9b003acab\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>AFP via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> It was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.</p><p><blockquote>14年前的本周，即2007年10月9日，股市在金融危机引发的熊市开始之前触及牛市高点。</blockquote></p><p> I am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&amp;P 500&nbsp;was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.</p><p><blockquote>我敢打赌，那天你脑子里最后一件事就是新的熊市是否开始了。相反，您无疑正在分享伴随着又一个牛市新高的繁荣。标普500比五年前牛市开始时的水平高出 120%。</blockquote></p><p> And, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&amp;P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would <i>lose</i> 55%.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国历史上最严重的熊市之一就在那一天开始了。随后16个月的标普500将<i>失去</i>55%.</blockquote></p><p> This walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.</p><p><blockquote>这条记忆之路非常重要，因为它提醒我们，牛市顶部并不能被实时识别。直到事实证明，牛市已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> Many clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.</p><p><blockquote>许多客户强烈不同意我的观点，坚称他们事实上确实很清楚牛市在 2007 年 10 月达到顶峰。但他们几乎可以肯定是在改写历史，这是可以理解的。改写过去是人之常情，让事情看起来会像以前那样发展。</blockquote></p><p> But the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.</p><p><blockquote>但2007-2009年熊市的开始在当时一点也不明显。</blockquote></p><p> If you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.</p><p><blockquote>如果您有任何疑问，请考虑我公司每天监控的近 100 个短期股票市场计时器子集中的平均推荐股票敞口。(平均而言，HSNSI 指数在牛市见顶的当天达到最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> This is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.</p><p><blockquote>这在随附的图表中说明。它平均了过去 40 年每次牛市顶部之前和之后六周的 HSNSI（根据 Ned Davis Research 维护的日历）。如您所见，HSNSI 在平均牛市的最后六周上涨了 20 个百分点，然后在随后的熊市的前六周下跌了 40 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bc18ef162a6e98217aada4619d99651\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"488\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，专业市场计时器平均在他们应该最悲观的日子里最乐观。他们是整天、每天跟踪市场的专业人士。如果他们不能做得更好，那你凭什么认为你可以？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Comments of market timers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场计时器的评论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:</p><p><blockquote>我认为这些统计数据令人信服。但为了锦上添花，请考虑时事通讯编辑在 2007 年 10 月市场顶部当天或之前几天发表的具有代表性的评论样本：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”</li>  <li>“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”</li>  <li>“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”</li>  <li>“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]</li>  <li>“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”</li>  <li>“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”</li> </ul> Their exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>“仔细一听，就能听到隆隆声，那隆隆声是这次大牛市第三阶段的遥远雷声……我看到好时光滚滚而来，我真的看到了。”</li><li>“我已经有一段时间没有对用我们的大钱获得巨额利润的潜力充满信心了。因此，如果你还没有这样做，那么你必须尽快把钱投入到这个[股票]市场中。时间不等人，你的钱也在等着你。那就去做吧。”</li><li>“全球股市的牛市不仅在继续，而且.还在进入一个强劲的阶段.现在美联储已经挥舞着降息的旗帜，真的没有什么能阻挡市场了。”</li><li>“道琼斯指数 16,000 点来了.在我们看来，未来 3 到 6 个月股市将进入竞争状态。”[2007 年 10 月牛市顶部当天道琼斯指数为 14,165 点。]</li><li>“熊市周期性跌幅超过 20% 的风险并未出现在雷达屏幕上。”</li><li>“长期牛市是完好无损的.你应该在任何疲软的时候买入”。</li></ul>他们的热情是显而易见的，不是吗？不管你今天会给自己讲什么故事，你那天的感受都很有可能是这样。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment lesson</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资教训</b></blockquote></p><p> The investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.</p><p><blockquote>投资含义很明确：不要指望能够减少股票敞口来避开熊市。</blockquote></p><p> This is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&amp;P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.</p><p><blockquote>这就是为什么你应该设计并遵循一个可以度过熊市的策略。如果你在牛市期间100%投资，直到标普500见顶，然后在熊市期间100%持有现金，那么它的收益不一定能达到理论上的最高收益。但是在现实世界中没有人达到理论上的最大值。</blockquote></p><p> The perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，完美是善的敌人。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&amp;P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.</p><p><blockquote>郑重声明，我不知道熊市是否已经开始。标普500创下迄今为止的牛市高点已经一个多月了，目前的交易价格比该高点低了近 3%。</blockquote></p><p> But if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.</p><p><blockquote>但如果它已经开始，我们要等到几个月后，也就是市场价格大幅下跌的时候才能确定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-you-wont-know-it-when-a-bear-market-starts-11633654477?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198930462","content_text":"It’s crucial to devise a strategy that you can live with through a bear market\nAFP via Getty Images\n\nIt was on Oct. 9, 2007, 14 years ago this week, that the stock market hit its bull market high prior to the beginning of the Financial Crisis-induced bear market.\nI am willing to bet that the last thing on your mind that day was whether a new bear market was beginning. Instead, you undoubtedly were sharing in the exuberance that accompanied yet another new bull-market high. The S&P 500 was 120% higher than where it had stood at the beginning of that bull market, five years previously.\nAnd, yet, one of the worst bear markets in U.S. history was beginning on that very day. The S&P 500 over the subsequent 16 months would lose 55%.\nThis walk down memory lane is important because it serves as a reminder that bull market tops aren’t recognized in real time. It’s only after the fact that it becomes clear that the bull market has ended.\nMany clients strenuously disagree with me about this, insisting that they in fact did have a good sense the bull market was topping out in October 2007. But they almost certainly are rewriting history, which is understandable. It’s human nature to rewrite the past to make it seem obvious that events would unfold as they did.\nBut the beginning of the 2007-2009 bear market was anything but obvious in the moment.\nIf you have any doubt, consider the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of nearly 100 short-term stock market timers my firm monitors on a daily basis. (This average is what’s represented by the Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HSNSI.) On average, the HSNSI reaches its highest level on the very day the bull market tops out.\nThis is illustrated in the accompanying chart. It averages the HSNSI over the six weeks prior and six weeks subsequent to every bull market top of the last 40 years (per the calendar maintained by Ned Davis Research). As you can see, the HSNSI rises 20 percentage points over the final six weeks of the average bull market, and then plunges 40 percentage points over the first six weeks of the subsequent bear market.\n\n\nIn other words, professional market timers on average are most optimistic on the very day they should be most pessimistic. They are professionals who follow the market all day, every day. If they can’t do better, then what makes you think you can?\nComments of market timers\nI think these statistics make a compelling case. But to add anecdotal icing to the cake, consider a representative sampling of comments made by newsletter editors on the exact day of the October 2007 market top, or in the days immediately prior:\n\n“If you listen carefully, you can hear the rumbling. That rumbling is the distant thunder of the third phase of this great bull market… I see the good times rolling, I really do.”\n“It’s been a while since I’ve felt so confident about the potential for making some great gains with our serious money. So, if you haven’t done so already, it is essential that you get your money into this [stock] market as quickly as possible. Time waits for no man, and your money is waiting on you. So go to it.”\n“The global bull market in stocks not only continues, but… it’s also entering a strong phase… Now that the Fed has waved the flag that interest rates are going lower, there’s really nothing holding the market back.”\n“Dow 16,000 here we come… [I]t appears to us that the stock market is off to the races for the next 3 to 6 months.” [The Dow on the day of the October 2007 bull market top was 14,165.]\n“The risk of a cyclical bear market decline in excess of 20% is not on the radar screen.”\n“The longer-term bull market is intact… You should be looking to buy on any weakness.”\n\nTheir exuberance is palpable, isn’t it? And odds are overwhelming that that’s how you felt too on that day—regardless of what story you may be telling yourself today.\nInvestment lesson\nThe investment implication is clear: Do not count on being able to reduce your equity exposure in order to sidestep a bear market.\nThis is why you should devise and then follow a strategy you can live with through a bear market. It won’t necessarily make as much money as the theoretical maximum you could make if you were to be 100% invested during bull markets up until the exact day of the S&P 500’s top, and then moved to be 100% in cash for the duration of the bear market. But no one achieves that theoretical maximum in the real world.\nThe perfect is the enemy of the good, in other words.\nFor the record, I have no idea whether a bear market has started. It’s been over a month now since the S&P 500 hit what so far has been its bull market high, and it is currently trading nearly 3% lower than that high.\nBut if it has started, we won’t know for sure until many months from now and when the market is a whole lot lower.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":862646383,"gmtCreate":1632878034640,"gmtModify":1632878034713,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Unless you’re day trader, else just wait patiently if your thesis still hold","listText":"Unless you’re day trader, else just wait patiently if your thesis still hold","text":"Unless you’re day trader, else just wait patiently if your thesis still hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862646383","repostId":"1106892312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106892312","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632870830,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1106892312?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-29 07:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These high-flying stocks of 2021 dropped the most on Tuesday<blockquote>这些 2021 年飞涨的股票周二跌幅最大</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106892312","media":"marketwatch","summary":"Stocks hit especially hard include Moderna, Nvidia and Google holding company Alphabet.\n\nThe Federal","content":"<p>  <b>Stocks hit especially hard include Moderna, Nvidia and Google holding company Alphabet.</b>  The Federal Reserve’s signaled policy change is having a predictable effect — pushing stock prices lower as bond yields become more attractive.</p><p><blockquote><b>遭受重创的股票包括 Moderna、Nvidia 和谷歌控股公司Alphabet。</b>美联储发出的政策变化信号正在产生可预见的效果--随着债券收益率变得更具吸引力，推动股价走低。</blockquote></p><p> This reverses some very strong action for U.S. stocks — at least for a day. Below is a list of 10 stocks that had increased at least 50% for 2021 through Sept. 27, but were pulled back the most on Sept. 28.</p><p><blockquote>这逆转了美国股市的一些非常强劲的走势——至少在一天内是这样。以下是截至 9 月 27 日在 2021 年上涨至少 50%，但在 9 月 28 日回调幅度最大的 10 只股票列表。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIAdeclined 1.6%, while the S&amp;P 500 IndexSPXfell 2%. The Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMPfared worst, tumbling 2.8%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 1.6%，标普500指数 SPX 下跌 2%。纳斯达克综合指数表现最差，下跌 2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notesBX:TMUBMUSD10Yincreased by 5 basis points to 1.55%. That was up from 1.33% only a week earlier.</p><p><blockquote>10年期美国国债BX:TMUBMUSD10YIN收益率上升5个基点至1.55%。这比一周前的 1.33% 有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> Combined, there are 523 stocks in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq-100NDXindexes. Among these stocks, 50 had risen at least 50% so far in 2021 through Sept. 27, excluding dividends, according to data provided by FactSet. Here are the 10 that declined the most on Sept. 28 — actually 11 stocks, as two common-share classes of Alphabet Inc.GOOGLGOOGare included:</p><p><blockquote>标普500和纳斯达克-100NDXIN指数合计有523只股票。FactSet 提供的数据显示，截至 9 月 27 日，其中 50 只股票在 2021 年迄今为止（不包括股息）上涨了至少 50%。以下是 9 月 28 日跌幅最大的 10 只股票，实际上是 11 只股票，其中包括Alphabet公司的两个普通股类别：GOOGLGOOGare：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e62aed3304cd811cf41ce390e38c41c\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"713\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83133c4cfdb3554d40f750a60c91892c\" tg-width=\"1101\" tg-height=\"291\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Click the tickers for more about each company. Clickhere&nbsp;for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the quote page.</p><p><blockquote>单击股票代码了解有关每家公司的更多信息。点击此处查看 Tomi Kilgore 在报价页面上免费提供的丰富信息的详细指南。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These high-flying stocks of 2021 dropped the most on Tuesday<blockquote>这些 2021 年飞涨的股票周二跌幅最大</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese high-flying stocks of 2021 dropped the most on Tuesday<blockquote>这些 2021 年飞涨的股票周二跌幅最大</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-29 07:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Stocks hit especially hard include Moderna, Nvidia and Google holding company Alphabet.</b>  The Federal Reserve’s signaled policy change is having a predictable effect — pushing stock prices lower as bond yields become more attractive.</p><p><blockquote><b>遭受重创的股票包括 Moderna、Nvidia 和谷歌控股公司Alphabet。</b>美联储发出的政策变化信号正在产生可预见的效果--随着债券收益率变得更具吸引力，推动股价走低。</blockquote></p><p> This reverses some very strong action for U.S. stocks — at least for a day. Below is a list of 10 stocks that had increased at least 50% for 2021 through Sept. 27, but were pulled back the most on Sept. 28.</p><p><blockquote>这逆转了美国股市的一些非常强劲的走势——至少在一天内是这样。以下是截至 9 月 27 日在 2021 年上涨至少 50%，但在 9 月 28 日回调幅度最大的 10 只股票列表。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIAdeclined 1.6%, while the S&amp;P 500 IndexSPXfell 2%. The Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMPfared worst, tumbling 2.8%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数下跌 1.6%，标普500指数 SPX 下跌 2%。纳斯达克综合指数表现最差，下跌 2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notesBX:TMUBMUSD10Yincreased by 5 basis points to 1.55%. That was up from 1.33% only a week earlier.</p><p><blockquote>10年期美国国债BX:TMUBMUSD10YIN收益率上升5个基点至1.55%。这比一周前的 1.33% 有所上升。</blockquote></p><p> Combined, there are 523 stocks in the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq-100NDXindexes. Among these stocks, 50 had risen at least 50% so far in 2021 through Sept. 27, excluding dividends, according to data provided by FactSet. Here are the 10 that declined the most on Sept. 28 — actually 11 stocks, as two common-share classes of Alphabet Inc.GOOGLGOOGare included:</p><p><blockquote>标普500和纳斯达克-100NDXIN指数合计有523只股票。FactSet 提供的数据显示，截至 9 月 27 日，其中 50 只股票在 2021 年迄今为止（不包括股息）上涨了至少 50%。以下是 9 月 28 日跌幅最大的 10 只股票，实际上是 11 只股票，其中包括Alphabet公司的两个普通股类别：GOOGLGOOGare：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e62aed3304cd811cf41ce390e38c41c\" tg-width=\"1106\" tg-height=\"713\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83133c4cfdb3554d40f750a60c91892c\" tg-width=\"1101\" tg-height=\"291\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Click the tickers for more about each company. Clickhere&nbsp;for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the quote page.</p><p><blockquote>单击股票代码了解有关每家公司的更多信息。点击此处查看 Tomi Kilgore 在报价页面上免费提供的丰富信息的详细指南。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-high-flying-stocks-of-2021-have-dropped-the-most-today-11632846406?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-high-flying-stocks-of-2021-have-dropped-the-most-today-11632846406?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106892312","content_text":"Stocks hit especially hard include Moderna, Nvidia and Google holding company Alphabet.\n\nThe Federal Reserve’s signaled policy change is having a predictable effect — pushing stock prices lower as bond yields become more attractive.\nThis reverses some very strong action for U.S. stocks — at least for a day. Below is a list of 10 stocks that had increased at least 50% for 2021 through Sept. 27, but were pulled back the most on Sept. 28.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIAdeclined 1.6%, while the S&P 500 IndexSPXfell 2%. The Nasdaq Composite IndexCOMPfared worst, tumbling 2.8%.\nThe yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury notesBX:TMUBMUSD10Yincreased by 5 basis points to 1.55%. That was up from 1.33% only a week earlier.\nCombined, there are 523 stocks in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100NDXindexes. Among these stocks, 50 had risen at least 50% so far in 2021 through Sept. 27, excluding dividends, according to data provided by FactSet. Here are the 10 that declined the most on Sept. 28 — actually 11 stocks, as two common-share classes of Alphabet Inc.GOOGLGOOGare included:\nClick the tickers for more about each company. Clickhere for Tomi Kilgore’s detailed guide to the wealth of information available for free on the quote page.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3883,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":886177369,"gmtCreate":1631578054751,"gmtModify":1631889583177,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Consolidation phase - the strong will grow stronger","listText":"Consolidation phase - the strong will grow stronger","text":"Consolidation phase - the strong will grow stronger","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/886177369","repostId":"1108674949","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1108674949","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631540940,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1108674949?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-13 21:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV Stocks dipped in Monday morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股票在周一早盘交易中下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1108674949","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV Stocks dipped in Monday morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto fell between 2% and 3%.China has vowed to consolidate the country’s electric vehicle industry after a decade-long nurturing of the sector led to the emergence of too many players, some of which are barely viable.“Looking forward, EV companies should grow bigger and stronger. We have too many EV firms on the market right now,” Xiao Yaqing, the minister for industry and information technology, said at a press conference ","content":"<p>EV Stocks dipped in Monday morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 2% and 3%.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股在周一早盘交易中下跌。特斯拉、蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车和理想汽车下跌2%至3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e3c5a4dc4224ac668393170a00547fb\" tg-width=\"367\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> China has vowed to consolidate the country’s electric vehicle industry after a decade-long nurturing of the sector led to the emergence of too many players, some of which are barely viable.</p><p><blockquote>中国誓言要巩固该国的电动汽车行业，因为经过十年的培育，该行业出现了太多的参与者，其中一些参与者几乎无法生存。</blockquote></p><p> “Looking forward, EV companies should grow bigger and stronger. We have too many EV firms on the market right now,” Xiao Yaqing, the minister for industry and information technology, said at a press conference in Beijing on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“展望未来，电动汽车企业应该做大做强。目前市场上有太多电动汽车企业，”工业和信息化部部长肖亚庆周一在北京举行的新闻发布会上说。</blockquote></p><p> “The firms are mostly small and scattered,” he said. “The role of the market should be fully utilized and we encourage merger and restructuring efforts in the EV sector to further increase market concentration.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”这些公司大多规模小且分散。“要充分发挥市场作用，鼓励电动汽车行业兼并重组，进一步提高市场集中度。”</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle makers fell Monday.Xpeng Inc.&nbsp;declined 2.3% in Hong Kong trading, and&nbsp;Li Auto Inc.&nbsp;dropped 1.4%. On mainland exchanges,BYD Co.&nbsp;slid 1.8% and&nbsp;BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Co.&nbsp;slumped 4.6%.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商股价周一下跌。小鹏汽车在香港交易中下跌 2.3%，理想汽车汽车下跌 1.4%。在内地交易所，比亚迪股价下跌1.8%，北汽蓝谷新能源科技股份有限公司下跌4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> China, which built its electric-car industry into the world’s biggest, is putting a new focus on consolidating the ranks of EV makers which has ballooned to about 300. The government is drafting measures to rein in overcapacity in the sector and channel resources to a number of key production hubs, Bloomberg News&nbsp;reported&nbsp;last week, citing people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>中国的电动汽车产业已成为世界上最大的电动汽车产业，现在正将新的重点放在巩固电动汽车制造商的队伍上，目前电动汽车制造商的数量已膨胀至约 300 家。彭博新闻社上周援引知情人士的话报道称，政府正在起草措施，以控制该行业的产能过剩，并将资源输送到一些关键的生产中心。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators are considering setting a minimum production capacity utilization rate for the industry, and provinces that aren’t meeting it won’t be allowed to approve new projects until surplus capacity comes online, Bloomberg reported.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，监管机构正在考虑为该行业设定最低产能利用率，未达到最低产能利用率的省份将不得批准新项目，直到过剩产能投入使用。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is competitive in China, but a consolidated domestic sector could pose a new challenge for the high-profile electric vehicle company.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在中国具有竞争力，但国内行业的整合可能会给这家备受瞩目的电动汽车公司带来新的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla announced that it is going to increase the price of its Model Y Performance car in China by $1,552. According to the report announced on the Chinese microblogging website Weibo, the new price of Model Y will be RMB 387,900.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉宣布将Model Y高性能车在华售价上调1552美元。根据中国微博网站微博上公布的报道，Model Y的新售价将为人民币38.79万元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV Stocks dipped in Monday morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股票在周一早盘交易中下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV Stocks dipped in Monday morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股票在周一早盘交易中下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-13 21:49</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>EV Stocks dipped in Monday morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto&nbsp;fell&nbsp;between 2% and 3%.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股在周一早盘交易中下跌。特斯拉、蔚来汽车、小鹏汽车和理想汽车下跌2%至3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e3c5a4dc4224ac668393170a00547fb\" tg-width=\"367\" tg-height=\"241\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> China has vowed to consolidate the country’s electric vehicle industry after a decade-long nurturing of the sector led to the emergence of too many players, some of which are barely viable.</p><p><blockquote>中国誓言要巩固该国的电动汽车行业，因为经过十年的培育，该行业出现了太多的参与者，其中一些参与者几乎无法生存。</blockquote></p><p> “Looking forward, EV companies should grow bigger and stronger. We have too many EV firms on the market right now,” Xiao Yaqing, the minister for industry and information technology, said at a press conference in Beijing on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>“展望未来，电动汽车企业应该做大做强。目前市场上有太多电动汽车企业，”工业和信息化部部长肖亚庆周一在北京举行的新闻发布会上说。</blockquote></p><p> “The firms are mostly small and scattered,” he said. “The role of the market should be fully utilized and we encourage merger and restructuring efforts in the EV sector to further increase market concentration.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”这些公司大多规模小且分散。“要充分发挥市场作用，鼓励电动汽车行业兼并重组，进一步提高市场集中度。”</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle makers fell Monday.Xpeng Inc.&nbsp;declined 2.3% in Hong Kong trading, and&nbsp;Li Auto Inc.&nbsp;dropped 1.4%. On mainland exchanges,BYD Co.&nbsp;slid 1.8% and&nbsp;BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Co.&nbsp;slumped 4.6%.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商股价周一下跌。小鹏汽车在香港交易中下跌 2.3%，理想汽车汽车下跌 1.4%。在内地交易所，比亚迪股价下跌1.8%，北汽蓝谷新能源科技股份有限公司下跌4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> China, which built its electric-car industry into the world’s biggest, is putting a new focus on consolidating the ranks of EV makers which has ballooned to about 300. The government is drafting measures to rein in overcapacity in the sector and channel resources to a number of key production hubs, Bloomberg News&nbsp;reported&nbsp;last week, citing people familiar with the matter.</p><p><blockquote>中国的电动汽车产业已成为世界上最大的电动汽车产业，现在正将新的重点放在巩固电动汽车制造商的队伍上，目前电动汽车制造商的数量已膨胀至约 300 家。彭博新闻社上周援引知情人士的话报道称，政府正在起草措施，以控制该行业的产能过剩，并将资源输送到一些关键的生产中心。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators are considering setting a minimum production capacity utilization rate for the industry, and provinces that aren’t meeting it won’t be allowed to approve new projects until surplus capacity comes online, Bloomberg reported.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博社报道，监管机构正在考虑为该行业设定最低产能利用率，未达到最低产能利用率的省份将不得批准新项目，直到过剩产能投入使用。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is competitive in China, but a consolidated domestic sector could pose a new challenge for the high-profile electric vehicle company.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在中国具有竞争力，但国内行业的整合可能会给这家备受瞩目的电动汽车公司带来新的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla announced that it is going to increase the price of its Model Y Performance car in China by $1,552. According to the report announced on the Chinese microblogging website Weibo, the new price of Model Y will be RMB 387,900.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉宣布将Model Y高性能车在华售价上调1552美元。根据中国微博网站微博上公布的报道，Model Y的新售价将为人民币38.79万元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车","XPEV":"小鹏集团","NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1108674949","content_text":"EV Stocks dipped in Monday morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors and Li Auto fell between 2% and 3%.\n\nChina has vowed to consolidate the country’s electric vehicle industry after a decade-long nurturing of the sector led to the emergence of too many players, some of which are barely viable.\n“Looking forward, EV companies should grow bigger and stronger. We have too many EV firms on the market right now,” Xiao Yaqing, the minister for industry and information technology, said at a press conference in Beijing on Monday.\n“The firms are mostly small and scattered,” he said. “The role of the market should be fully utilized and we encourage merger and restructuring efforts in the EV sector to further increase market concentration.”\nShares of Chinese electric-vehicle makers fell Monday.Xpeng Inc. declined 2.3% in Hong Kong trading, and Li Auto Inc. dropped 1.4%. On mainland exchanges,BYD Co. slid 1.8% and BAIC BluePark New Energy Technology Co. slumped 4.6%.\nChina, which built its electric-car industry into the world’s biggest, is putting a new focus on consolidating the ranks of EV makers which has ballooned to about 300. The government is drafting measures to rein in overcapacity in the sector and channel resources to a number of key production hubs, Bloomberg News reported last week, citing people familiar with the matter.\nRegulators are considering setting a minimum production capacity utilization rate for the industry, and provinces that aren’t meeting it won’t be allowed to approve new projects until surplus capacity comes online, Bloomberg reported.\nTesla is competitive in China, but a consolidated domestic sector could pose a new challenge for the high-profile electric vehicle company.\nTesla announced that it is going to increase the price of its Model Y Performance car in China by $1,552. According to the report announced on the Chinese microblogging website Weibo, the new price of Model Y will be RMB 387,900.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9,"XPEV":0.9,"LI":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":844,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830691934,"gmtCreate":1629069064328,"gmtModify":1633687739672,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Breaking all time high soon","listText":"Breaking all time high soon","text":"Breaking all time high soon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830691934","repostId":"2159211727","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":606,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816717441,"gmtCreate":1630535877683,"gmtModify":1631889583226,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Still riding on the uptrend but wondering&nbsp;what’s the next catalyst?","listText":"Still riding on the uptrend but wondering&nbsp;what’s the next catalyst?","text":"Still riding on the uptrend but wondering what’s the next catalyst?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816717441","repostId":"1194937312","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1194937312","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630503428,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1194937312?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-01 21:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple shares rose nearly 2% in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘上涨近2%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194937312","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Apple shares rose nearly 2% in early trading.\n\n\nWolfe Research upgrades Apple from Underperform to P","content":"<p>Apple&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;early&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价早盘上涨近2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/074074cd9456d4c1a7776d87b07c5c72\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wolfe Research upgrades Apple&nbsp;from Underperform to Peer Perform on strong iPhone 12 demand trends that should provide a tailwind for the iPhone 13 lineup expected to launch later this month.</li>  <li>Analyst Jeffrey Kvaal says the demand was driven by healthy U.S. operator promotions and Huawei share gains. Additional fuel is coming from the tech giant's supply chain strength, which partially offsets the global component shortage, and the \"elevated\" average selling prices.</li>  <li>Kvaal raises Apple's price target from $135 to $155.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Wolfe Research将苹果从表现不佳上调至表现同行，原因是iPhone 12强劲的需求趋势，这将为预计将于本月晚些时候推出的iPhone 13系列提供推动力。</li><li>分析师杰弗里·夸尔 (Jeffrey Kvaal) 表示，需求是由美国运营商健康的促销和华为股价上涨推动的。额外的燃料来自这家科技巨头的供应链实力，这在一定程度上抵消了全球零部件短缺和“较高”的平均销售价格。</li><li>Kvaal 将苹果的目标价从 135 美元上调至 155 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple shares rose nearly 2% in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘上涨近2%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple shares rose nearly 2% in early trading<blockquote>苹果股价早盘上涨近2%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-01 21:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in&nbsp;early&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>苹果股价早盘上涨近2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/074074cd9456d4c1a7776d87b07c5c72\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"572\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wolfe Research upgrades Apple&nbsp;from Underperform to Peer Perform on strong iPhone 12 demand trends that should provide a tailwind for the iPhone 13 lineup expected to launch later this month.</li>  <li>Analyst Jeffrey Kvaal says the demand was driven by healthy U.S. operator promotions and Huawei share gains. Additional fuel is coming from the tech giant's supply chain strength, which partially offsets the global component shortage, and the \"elevated\" average selling prices.</li>  <li>Kvaal raises Apple's price target from $135 to $155.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Wolfe Research将苹果从表现不佳上调至表现同行，原因是iPhone 12强劲的需求趋势，这将为预计将于本月晚些时候推出的iPhone 13系列提供推动力。</li><li>分析师杰弗里·夸尔 (Jeffrey Kvaal) 表示，需求是由美国运营商健康的促销和华为股价上涨推动的。额外的燃料来自这家科技巨头的供应链实力，这在一定程度上抵消了全球零部件短缺和“较高”的平均销售价格。</li><li>Kvaal 将苹果的目标价从 135 美元上调至 155 美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1194937312","content_text":"Apple shares rose nearly 2% in early trading.\n\n\nWolfe Research upgrades Apple from Underperform to Peer Perform on strong iPhone 12 demand trends that should provide a tailwind for the iPhone 13 lineup expected to launch later this month.\nAnalyst Jeffrey Kvaal says the demand was driven by healthy U.S. operator promotions and Huawei share gains. Additional fuel is coming from the tech giant's supply chain strength, which partially offsets the global component shortage, and the \"elevated\" average selling prices.\nKvaal raises Apple's price target from $135 to $155.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816053566,"gmtCreate":1630456959555,"gmtModify":1631889583239,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Interest rate will remains low for longer period forsure","listText":"Interest rate will remains low for longer period forsure","text":"Interest rate will remains low for longer period forsure","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816053566","repostId":"2164869989","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":840,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816027225,"gmtCreate":1630456770967,"gmtModify":1631889583264,"author":{"id":"4091330416235530","authorId":"4091330416235530","name":"AlvinCWC","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0743f010c0966b125f39ff248c382345","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091330416235530","idStr":"4091330416235530"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Such bumpy ride recently","listText":"Such bumpy ride recently","text":"Such bumpy ride recently","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816027225","repostId":"1131957400","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}