nonewiser的个人主页 - 老虎社区

nonewiser

nonewiser

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

284关注

53粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-09-06

It’s going to be a boring Monday

Is the U.S. stock market open on Labor Day?<blockquote>劳动节美股开市吗？</blockquote>

2021-08-29

Let’s go!!!

Apple Stock: How It Could Be A Great Inflation Play<blockquote>苹果股票：它如何成为一场伟大的通胀游戏</blockquote>

2021-09-17

Appreciate a like please

EV maker Lucid shares jumped 4% in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车制造商Lucid股价早盘上涨4%</blockquote>

2021-11-10

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Please rocket!

2021-10-02

Sounds good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-01

🙏🏻

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-28

$Facebook(FB)$Can buy now?

2021-09-08

Yeay

Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>

2021-09-06

Beware

Speak No Evil of the S&P 500’s Neverending Records<blockquote>不要说标普500永无止境的记录的坏话</blockquote>

2021-09-01

Is this a good time to go in?

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4092303713529060","uuid":"4092303713529060","gmtCreate":1629200980153,"gmtModify":1629472234959,"name":"nonewiser","pinyin":"nonewiser","introduction":"","introductionEn":"","signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":53,"headSize":284,"tweetSize":105,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-1","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"精英交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到30次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"60.04%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":3,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"hot","tweets":[{"id":847790922,"gmtCreate":1636552402252,"gmtModify":1636552403042,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Please rocket!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Please rocket!","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Please rocket!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b225b0621cab481413090e765dea66a","width":"1125","height":"3409"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847790922","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844509422,"gmtCreate":1636436248850,"gmtModify":1636436249655,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>More VTLs, more traveling&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>More VTLs, more traveling&nbsp;","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$More VTLs, more traveling","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aacf05723092385c79ec8b7ebd34c377","width":"1125","height":"2605"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844509422","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845690490,"gmtCreate":1636332835857,"gmtModify":1636332836704,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z74.SI\">$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$</a>Hoping for a good rally this week","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z74.SI\">$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$</a>Hoping for a good rally this week","text":"$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$Hoping for a good rally this week","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df3cd848f0126a1cfa033b9e7cc54c0a","width":"1125","height":"2605"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845690490","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845385850,"gmtCreate":1636285403186,"gmtModify":1636285495601,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z74.SI\">$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$</a>Go go go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/Z74.SI\">$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$</a>Go go go","text":"$SINGTEL(Z74.SI)$Go go go","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5699ef832c386ce591d4f1a7cb6108a9","width":"1125","height":"2605"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845385850","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846760871,"gmtCreate":1636114712160,"gmtModify":1636114712874,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>Come on!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>Come on!","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$Come on!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a409d4a0ab7f09303ef0edf510fb8eb8","width":"1125","height":"2605"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846760871","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2396,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":848466117,"gmtCreate":1636020746782,"gmtModify":1636020789077,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Please rise","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Please rise","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Please rise","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a845933d84519e1b6fc9e9aa90a4ae30","width":"1125","height":"3409"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/848466117","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843331357,"gmtCreate":1635807617906,"gmtModify":1635807618111,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Rebounded!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Rebounded!","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Rebounded!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7982d55b86507b00b9c61c3be4eb283e","width":"1125","height":"3409"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843331357","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2173,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840840134,"gmtCreate":1635637781098,"gmtModify":1635637781305,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>Stead!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$</a>Stead!","text":"$Moderna, Inc.(MRNA)$Stead!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9498aac6dca0d22b208b51252d34995","width":"1125","height":"3491"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840840134","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840199311,"gmtCreate":1635601573659,"gmtModify":1635601573938,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">$Coca-Cola(KO)$</a>Gearing up for Xmas!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">$Coca-Cola(KO)$</a>Gearing up for Xmas!","text":"$Coca-Cola(KO)$Gearing up for Xmas!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9eacb82a72e74fab0c1c4ea6b8a48ab","width":"1125","height":"3572"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840199311","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857329193,"gmtCreate":1635509828437,"gmtModify":1635509829177,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$Ford(F)$</a>Come on!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">$Ford(F)$</a>Come on!","text":"$Ford(F)$Come on!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60b3c4ce5a32778bee1f5f2c49db5dd9","width":"1125","height":"3491"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857329193","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855656042,"gmtCreate":1635374981997,"gmtModify":1635377463008,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Facebook(FB)$</a>Can buy now?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Facebook(FB)$</a>Can buy now?","text":"$Facebook(FB)$Can buy now?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/390614b2958986451f90a343c029980f","width":"1125","height":"3735"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855656042","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":852222534,"gmtCreate":1635285899584,"gmtModify":1635285900396,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Facebook(FB)$</a>Poor FB","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Facebook(FB)$</a>Poor FB","text":"$Facebook(FB)$Poor FB","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a65e341b406cf2585b126680c7c57b0","width":"1125","height":"3572"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852222534","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":856505181,"gmtCreate":1635199914313,"gmtModify":1635199914990,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Another high record","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Another high record","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Another high record","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/14538ae025b0876863ba2dd5dc41e198","width":"1125","height":"3572"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856505181","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":818,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":856041123,"gmtCreate":1635133991398,"gmtModify":1635133992098,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>Why not going up?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C6L.SI\">$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$</a>Why not going up?","text":"$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$Why not going up?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48ff7f8b313b5df96377f23c30bf0a67","width":"1125","height":"2605"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/856041123","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1454,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858624688,"gmtCreate":1635047472738,"gmtModify":1635047473444,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a>Countries are opening UP, so will the shares","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">$Walt Disney(DIS)$</a>Countries are opening UP, so will the shares","text":"$Walt Disney(DIS)$Countries are opening UP, so will the shares","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c04c789a05c63e5800f91bb8e805dde","width":"1125","height":"3654"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858624688","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":858192419,"gmtCreate":1634999219152,"gmtModify":1634999219899,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$</a>It will rebound","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$Alphabet(GOOG)$</a>It will rebound","text":"$Alphabet(GOOG)$It will rebound","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/397e6d7ef846f6843bee8d77a7f7e205","width":"1125","height":"3654"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/858192419","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1013,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853743215,"gmtCreate":1634854817193,"gmtModify":1634854817844,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">$McDonald's(MCD)$</a>Nice","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCD\">$McDonald's(MCD)$</a>Nice","text":"$McDonald's(MCD)$Nice","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edc678d2fc5b8497d20bb170dfabaaf9","width":"1125","height":"3654"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853743215","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":853588449,"gmtCreate":1634824368305,"gmtModify":1634825697182,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>It’s coming back","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$Apple(AAPL)$</a>It’s coming back","text":"$Apple(AAPL)$It’s coming back","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32809e37c6edd72415f36725f8fcb967","width":"1125","height":"3314"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/853588449","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":738,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":827084229,"gmtCreate":1634370700940,"gmtModify":1634370701567,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>One of my favorites&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$Microsoft(MSFT)$</a>One of my favorites&nbsp;","text":"$Microsoft(MSFT)$One of my favorites","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/827084229","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":922,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824107349,"gmtCreate":1634286371665,"gmtModify":1634286371819,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Is it turning up??","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$NIO Inc.(NIO)$</a>Is it turning up??","text":"$NIO Inc.(NIO)$Is it turning up??","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/539d1e9fce0647d06a0ef5a12f7c5360","width":"1125","height":"3735"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824107349","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1003,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":817004818,"gmtCreate":1630888725934,"gmtModify":1631890188953,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It’s going to be a boring Monday","listText":"It’s going to be a boring Monday","text":"It’s going to be a boring Monday","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817004818","repostId":"1126654067","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1126654067","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630885254,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1126654067?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 07:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is the U.S. stock market open on Labor Day?<blockquote>劳动节美股开市吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1126654067","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.\nU.S. financial markets will be cl","content":"<p>It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.</p><p><blockquote>对于华尔街投资者来说，这是非正式的夏季最后一次欢呼。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. financial markets will be closed for Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 6, marking a three-day weekend in the U.S., following what has been a mostly spectacular run for the stock market. The rally came despite concerns about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus and unease about the timetable for an eventual rollback of easy-money policies implemented by the Federal Reserve at the onset of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>美国金融市场将于9月6日周一因劳动节休市，这标志着美国为期三天的周末，此前股市经历了一段非常壮观的走势。尽管人们担心冠状病毒德尔塔变异毒株的蔓延，并对美联储去年大流行开始时实施的宽松货币政策最终回滚的时间表感到不安，但股市还是出现了反弹。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, U.S. stock exchanges, including the Intercontinental Exchange Inc.&nbsp;-owned New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Inc.,will be closed, so don’t look for any action in individual stocks or indexes including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;or Nasdaq Composite indexes.</p><p><blockquote>周一，包括洲际交易所旗下的纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克在内的美国证券交易所将休市，因此不要寻找道琼斯工业平均指数、标准普尔500指数或纳斯达克综合指数等个股或指数的任何走势。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 has already notched 54 record closing highs in 2021 and was looking for its 55th on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;was on track to book its 35th&nbsp;all-time high of the year. The Dow stood less than a percentage point from its Aug. 16 record, mid-afternoon Friday.</p><p><blockquote>标普500在2021年已经创下了54个历史收盘新高，并有望在周五创下第55个历史新高，而纳斯达克综合指数有望创下今年第35个历史新高。周五下午，道琼斯指数较8月16日的纪录上涨了不到一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Sifma, the securities-industry trade group for fixed-income, also has recommended the bond market close on Labor Day, including trading in the 10-year Treasury note,which was&nbsp;yielding around 1.33%&nbsp;after the U.S. August jobs report came in weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>证券行业固定收益贸易组织Sifma也建议债券市场在劳动节休市，包括10年期国债交易，在美国8月就业报告公布后，该国债收益率约为1.33%。低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> However, the&nbsp;Labor Department’s employment report,which showed that&nbsp;235,000 jobs were created in August, far below expectations for more than 700,000, failed to dull expectations among sovereign debt investors for a near-term announcement of tapering of the Fed’s $120 billion in monthly purchases in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国劳工部的就业报告显示，8月份新增就业岗位23.5万个，远低于预期的70多万个，但这未能降低主权债务投资者对美联储近期宣布缩减每月1200亿美元美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买规模的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Trading in most commodity futures, including Nymex crude-oil&nbsp;and Comex gold,on U.S. exchanges will also be halted Monday.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的大多数商品期货交易，包括纽约商品交易所原油和纽约商品交易所黄金，也将于周一停止。</blockquote></p><p> Is there any significance to the holiday for average investors, besides the time off in the U.S. and the barbecues?</p><p><blockquote>除了在美国度假和烧烤之外，这个假期对普通投资者还有什么意义吗？</blockquote></p><p> Probably not.</p><p><blockquote>应该不会吧。</blockquote></p><p> But the May Memorial Day to September Labor Day period in recent years has proven a bullish stretch one for investors, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow, for example, is up by about 2% over that period and averages a gain of 1.3%, producing a winning record 65% of the time. The Dow is currently enjoying a win streak, over the past six Memorial Day/Labor Day periods, representing the longest win streak since 1989. Last year, the markets gained nearly 15% over that time.</p><p><blockquote>但根据道琼斯市场数据，近年来，五月阵亡将士纪念日至九月劳动节期间对投资者来说是一段看涨的时期。例如，道琼斯指数在此期间上涨了约2%，平均涨幅为1.3%，65%的时间创造了获胜记录。在过去的六个阵亡将士纪念日/劳动节期间，道琼斯指数目前正在享受连胜，这是自1989年以来最长的连胜。去年，市场同期上涨了近15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3f0f061a4ddd2ca31c53f8aa68e3cce\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is on a similar win streak and is up nearly 8% so far this Memorial Day-Labor Day period. It has risen more than 70% over that period in past years and averages a 1.7% gain. The broad-market index rose 16% during that time in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>标普500也取得了类似的连胜，在阵亡将士纪念日至劳动节期间迄今为止已上涨近8%。过去几年同期上涨了70%以上，平均涨幅为1.7%。2020年期间，大盘指数上涨了16%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c780a46e32d055feb3e3f5e10fc987f\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But if there is a bona fide trend in the Labor Day trading it may be this one that MarketWatch’s&nbsp;Steve Goldstein reports, quoting Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt, who says that in the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after the holiday, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close.</p><p><blockquote>但如果劳动节交易中存在真正的趋势，那么MarketWatch的Steve Goldstein援引Raymond James策略师Tavis McCourt的话说，在过去两年中，股市存在很大的价值和周期性偏差。节后股市，2018年，夏季接近尾声后市场基本崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> It is impossible to know if the stock market rally will peter out similarly this time around but there is a growing sense on Wall Street that valuations are too lofty and equity indexes are due for a pullback of at least 5% or better from current heights.</p><p><blockquote>不可能知道这一次股市涨势是否会以类似的方式逐渐消失，但华尔街越来越多的人认为估值过高，股指将从当前高度回调至少5%或更好。</blockquote></p><p> Markets will be back to business as usual on Tuesday and, of course, European bourses, including London’s FTSE 100&nbsp;index and the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600&nbsp;will be open on Monday, as well as Asian markets, the Nikkei 225,Hong Kong’s Hang Seng&nbsp;and the Shanghai Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>市场将于周二恢复照常营业，当然，欧洲证券交易所，包括伦敦富时100指数和泛欧斯托克欧洲600指数，以及亚洲市场、日经225指数、香港恒生指数和上证综合指数。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is the U.S. stock market open on Labor Day?<blockquote>劳动节美股开市吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs the U.S. stock market open on Labor Day?<blockquote>劳动节美股开市吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 07:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.</p><p><blockquote>对于华尔街投资者来说，这是非正式的夏季最后一次欢呼。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. financial markets will be closed for Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 6, marking a three-day weekend in the U.S., following what has been a mostly spectacular run for the stock market. The rally came despite concerns about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus and unease about the timetable for an eventual rollback of easy-money policies implemented by the Federal Reserve at the onset of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>美国金融市场将于9月6日周一因劳动节休市，这标志着美国为期三天的周末，此前股市经历了一段非常壮观的走势。尽管人们担心冠状病毒德尔塔变异毒株的蔓延，并对美联储去年大流行开始时实施的宽松货币政策最终回滚的时间表感到不安，但股市还是出现了反弹。</blockquote></p><p> On Monday, U.S. stock exchanges, including the Intercontinental Exchange Inc.&nbsp;-owned New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Inc.,will be closed, so don’t look for any action in individual stocks or indexes including the Dow Jones Industrial Average,&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;or Nasdaq Composite indexes.</p><p><blockquote>周一，包括洲际交易所旗下的纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克在内的美国证券交易所将休市，因此不要寻找道琼斯工业平均指数、标准普尔500指数或纳斯达克综合指数等个股或指数的任何走势。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 has already notched 54 record closing highs in 2021 and was looking for its 55th on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;was on track to book its 35th&nbsp;all-time high of the year. The Dow stood less than a percentage point from its Aug. 16 record, mid-afternoon Friday.</p><p><blockquote>标普500在2021年已经创下了54个历史收盘新高，并有望在周五创下第55个历史新高，而纳斯达克综合指数有望创下今年第35个历史新高。周五下午，道琼斯指数较8月16日的纪录上涨了不到一个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Sifma, the securities-industry trade group for fixed-income, also has recommended the bond market close on Labor Day, including trading in the 10-year Treasury note,which was&nbsp;yielding around 1.33%&nbsp;after the U.S. August jobs report came in weaker than expected.</p><p><blockquote>证券行业固定收益贸易组织Sifma也建议债券市场在劳动节休市，包括10年期国债交易，在美国8月就业报告公布后，该国债收益率约为1.33%。低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> However, the&nbsp;Labor Department’s employment report,which showed that&nbsp;235,000 jobs were created in August, far below expectations for more than 700,000, failed to dull expectations among sovereign debt investors for a near-term announcement of tapering of the Fed’s $120 billion in monthly purchases in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美国劳工部的就业报告显示，8月份新增就业岗位23.5万个，远低于预期的70多万个，但这未能降低主权债务投资者对美联储近期宣布缩减每月1200亿美元美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券购买规模的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Trading in most commodity futures, including Nymex crude-oil&nbsp;and Comex gold,on U.S. exchanges will also be halted Monday.</p><p><blockquote>美国交易所的大多数商品期货交易，包括纽约商品交易所原油和纽约商品交易所黄金，也将于周一停止。</blockquote></p><p> Is there any significance to the holiday for average investors, besides the time off in the U.S. and the barbecues?</p><p><blockquote>除了在美国度假和烧烤之外，这个假期对普通投资者还有什么意义吗？</blockquote></p><p> Probably not.</p><p><blockquote>应该不会吧。</blockquote></p><p> But the May Memorial Day to September Labor Day period in recent years has proven a bullish stretch one for investors, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow, for example, is up by about 2% over that period and averages a gain of 1.3%, producing a winning record 65% of the time. The Dow is currently enjoying a win streak, over the past six Memorial Day/Labor Day periods, representing the longest win streak since 1989. Last year, the markets gained nearly 15% over that time.</p><p><blockquote>但根据道琼斯市场数据，近年来，五月阵亡将士纪念日至九月劳动节期间对投资者来说是一段看涨的时期。例如，道琼斯指数在此期间上涨了约2%，平均涨幅为1.3%，65%的时间创造了获胜记录。在过去的六个阵亡将士纪念日/劳动节期间，道琼斯指数目前正在享受连胜，这是自1989年以来最长的连胜。去年，市场同期上涨了近15%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3f0f061a4ddd2ca31c53f8aa68e3cce\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 is on a similar win streak and is up nearly 8% so far this Memorial Day-Labor Day period. It has risen more than 70% over that period in past years and averages a 1.7% gain. The broad-market index rose 16% during that time in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>标普500也取得了类似的连胜，在阵亡将士纪念日至劳动节期间迄今为止已上涨近8%。过去几年同期上涨了70%以上，平均涨幅为1.7%。2020年期间，大盘指数上涨了16%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c780a46e32d055feb3e3f5e10fc987f\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"564\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>DOW JONES MARKET DATA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>道琼斯市场数据</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But if there is a bona fide trend in the Labor Day trading it may be this one that MarketWatch’s&nbsp;Steve Goldstein reports, quoting Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt, who says that in the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after the holiday, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close.</p><p><blockquote>但如果劳动节交易中存在真正的趋势，那么MarketWatch的Steve Goldstein援引Raymond James策略师Tavis McCourt的话说，在过去两年中，股市存在很大的价值和周期性偏差。节后股市，2018年，夏季接近尾声后市场基本崩溃。</blockquote></p><p> It is impossible to know if the stock market rally will peter out similarly this time around but there is a growing sense on Wall Street that valuations are too lofty and equity indexes are due for a pullback of at least 5% or better from current heights.</p><p><blockquote>不可能知道这一次股市涨势是否会以类似的方式逐渐消失，但华尔街越来越多的人认为估值过高，股指将从当前高度回调至少5%或更好。</blockquote></p><p> Markets will be back to business as usual on Tuesday and, of course, European bourses, including London’s FTSE 100&nbsp;index and the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600&nbsp;will be open on Monday, as well as Asian markets, the Nikkei 225,Hong Kong’s Hang Seng&nbsp;and the Shanghai Composite Index.</p><p><blockquote>市场将于周二恢复照常营业，当然，欧洲证券交易所，包括伦敦富时100指数和泛欧斯托克欧洲600指数，以及亚洲市场、日经225指数、香港恒生指数和上证综合指数。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-u-s-stock-market-open-on-labor-day-11630697597?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ICE":"洲际交易所",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-u-s-stock-market-open-on-labor-day-11630697597?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1126654067","content_text":"It is unofficially summer’s last hurrah for Wall Street investors.\nU.S. financial markets will be closed for Labor Day on Monday, Sept. 6, marking a three-day weekend in the U.S., following what has been a mostly spectacular run for the stock market. The rally came despite concerns about the spread of the delta variant of the coronavirus and unease about the timetable for an eventual rollback of easy-money policies implemented by the Federal Reserve at the onset of the pandemic last year.\nOn Monday, U.S. stock exchanges, including the Intercontinental Exchange Inc. -owned New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Inc.,will be closed, so don’t look for any action in individual stocks or indexes including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 or Nasdaq Composite indexes.\nThe S&P 500 has already notched 54 record closing highs in 2021 and was looking for its 55th on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite was on track to book its 35th all-time high of the year. The Dow stood less than a percentage point from its Aug. 16 record, mid-afternoon Friday.\nSifma, the securities-industry trade group for fixed-income, also has recommended the bond market close on Labor Day, including trading in the 10-year Treasury note,which was yielding around 1.33% after the U.S. August jobs report came in weaker than expected.\nHowever, the Labor Department’s employment report,which showed that 235,000 jobs were created in August, far below expectations for more than 700,000, failed to dull expectations among sovereign debt investors for a near-term announcement of tapering of the Fed’s $120 billion in monthly purchases in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities.\nTrading in most commodity futures, including Nymex crude-oil and Comex gold,on U.S. exchanges will also be halted Monday.\nIs there any significance to the holiday for average investors, besides the time off in the U.S. and the barbecues?\nProbably not.\nBut the May Memorial Day to September Labor Day period in recent years has proven a bullish stretch one for investors, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The Dow, for example, is up by about 2% over that period and averages a gain of 1.3%, producing a winning record 65% of the time. The Dow is currently enjoying a win streak, over the past six Memorial Day/Labor Day periods, representing the longest win streak since 1989. Last year, the markets gained nearly 15% over that time.\nDOW JONES MARKET DATA\nThe S&P 500 is on a similar win streak and is up nearly 8% so far this Memorial Day-Labor Day period. It has risen more than 70% over that period in past years and averages a 1.7% gain. The broad-market index rose 16% during that time in 2020.\nDOW JONES MARKET DATA\nBut if there is a bona fide trend in the Labor Day trading it may be this one that MarketWatch’s Steve Goldstein reports, quoting Raymond James strategist Tavis McCourt, who says that in the last two years, there was a big value and cyclical bias in stock markets after the holiday, and in 2018, markets basically collapsed after the summer drew to a close.\nIt is impossible to know if the stock market rally will peter out similarly this time around but there is a growing sense on Wall Street that valuations are too lofty and equity indexes are due for a pullback of at least 5% or better from current heights.\nMarkets will be back to business as usual on Tuesday and, of course, European bourses, including London’s FTSE 100 index and the pan-European Stoxx Europe 600 will be open on Monday, as well as Asian markets, the Nikkei 225,Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite Index.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ICE":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":371,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813439236,"gmtCreate":1630226722425,"gmtModify":1704957255506,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let’s go!!!","listText":"Let’s go!!!","text":"Let’s go!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813439236","repostId":"1162964424","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1162964424","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630111098,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162964424?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-28 08:38","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock: How It Could Be A Great Inflation Play<blockquote>苹果股票：它如何成为一场伟大的通胀游戏</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162964424","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.IPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year  should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has reported that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.Bad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock investors. If the price increase is con","content":"<p>Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.</p><p><blockquote>由于某些组件的价格上涨，苹果的iPhone 13可能会让消费者花费更多。这对用户来说是个坏消息，但对苹果股票投资者来说可能是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> IPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year (or those looking to switch to the iOS-based product) should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.</p><p><blockquote>考虑今年升级设备的IPhone用户（或者那些希望转向基于iOS的产品的用户）应该期待更深入地了解他们的口袋。DigiTimes报道称，由于零部件通胀，苹果的iPhone 13可能会在下个月以更高的价格推出。</blockquote></p><p> Bad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock&nbsp;investors. If the price increase is confirmed, it provides evidence that AAPL might be a great inflation play during these times of worry over rising producer and consumer prices.</p><p><blockquote>对消费者来说是个坏消息，对苹果股票投资者来说可能是个好消息。如果价格上涨得到证实，这将提供证据表明，在人们担心生产者和消费者价格上涨的时期，苹果公司可能会成为一个巨大的通胀工具。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6f4ac9ebc1b90072340731dc5c1e613\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone 12 Pro.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果的iPhone 12 Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怎么回事？</b></blockquote></p><p> The iPhone is already considered a pricey tech gadget that can cost as much as $1,400 for the fully loaded, higher-end 12 Pro Max model in the US (see figure below). Due to this year’s components shortage, chip maker TSMC may raise its part prices to Apple by 3% to 5%, which could lead to a similar increase in the price of the yet-to-be-announced iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone已经被认为是一款昂贵的科技产品，在美国，满载的高端12 Pro Max机型售价高达1400美元（见下图）。由于今年的零部件短缺，芯片制造商台积电可能会将其对苹果的零部件价格提高3%至5%，这可能会导致尚未公布的iPhone 13价格出现类似上涨。</blockquote></p><p> It is unlikely that one of the largest and most successful consumer product companies in the world would try to raise prices without confidence that doing so does not impact demand for the new iPhone substantially. Apple can probably afford to hike prices because the company understands the value and the appeal of its luxury brand.</p><p><blockquote>世界上最大、最成功的消费品公司之一不太可能试图提高价格，而不相信这样做不会对新iPhone的需求产生实质性影响。苹果或许有能力提高价格，因为该公司了解其奢侈品牌的价值和吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0140b9b68bb9eb5dd7e88aaff384785d\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone 12 Pro on Apple's store.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果商店上的iPhone 12 Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A quote from Jim Cramer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>引用吉姆·克莱默的话</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most concerning headwinds to stocks in the foreseeable future is the possibility of inflation eroding corporate margins and leading to higher interest rates in 2021-2022. But should producer and consumer prices spike, not all stocks will be impacted equally.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，股市最令人担忧的阻力之一是通胀可能侵蚀企业利润率并导致2021-2022年利率上升。但如果生产者和消费者价格飙升，并非所有股票都会受到同等影响。</blockquote></p><p> Generally speaking, companies with strong pricing power that are able to pass on the higher production costs to consumers will likely outperform. This is a point that&nbsp;Mad Money’s Jim Cramer has made recently. Here is his quote:</p><p><blockquote>一般来说，拥有强大定价权、能够将较高的生产成本转嫁给消费者的公司可能会表现出色。这是Mad Money的吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)最近提出的观点。以下是他的名言：</blockquote></p><p>   “When you try to think of what’s working in this market... I want you to ask yourself, would you be insensitive to a price increase if the company put one through? [What are] the companies that can raise prices without infuriating you? Go buy their stocks.”  <b>The impact to the P&amp;L</b></p><p><blockquote>“当你试图思考这个市场上什么在起作用时……我想让你问问自己，如果公司提价，你会对提价麻木不仁吗？有哪些公司可以提价而不会激怒你？去买他们的股票。”<b>对损益的影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Are higher prices a good or a bad thing for a company’s financial performance? The answer is nuanced and depends on a few factors.</p><p><blockquote>价格上涨对公司的财务业绩是好事还是坏事？答案是微妙的，取决于几个因素。</blockquote></p><p> Holding all else constant, higher prices also mean higher revenues (think of the formula for sales: price times quantity). If the increase in price is decoupled from an increase in product or operating costs, then the hike also helps to boost margins – thus profits as well.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件不变的情况下，更高的价格也意味着更高的收入（想想销售公式：价格乘以数量）。如果价格上涨与产品或运营成本的增加脱钩，那么涨价也有助于提高利润率，从而提高利润。</blockquote></p><p> However, “holding all else constant” is not how the world really works. A change in price tends to have an impact on a few key variables, most important of which is demand. If higher prices do not impact units sold by much or at all, this is great news for revenues and, most likely, earnings.</p><p><blockquote>然而，“保持其他一切不变”并不是世界真正的运作方式。价格的变化往往会对一些关键变量产生影响，其中最重要的是需求。如果更高的价格不会对售出的单位产生太大影响或根本没有影响，那么这对收入以及最有可能的盈利来说是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> The other piece to consider is whether the price hike fully or only partially offsets higher costs. Assuming the latter, revenues can still benefit without a corresponding positive effect on margins and profits. The complexity presented by the many moving parts makes it hard to determine with certainty how a more expensive iPhone may impact Apple’s financial statements in the future.</p><p><blockquote>另一个需要考虑的问题是价格上涨是否完全或仅部分抵消了更高的成本。假设是后者，收入仍然可以受益，而不会对利润率和利润产生相应的积极影响。许多移动部件所呈现的复杂性使得很难确定更昂贵的iPhone未来可能会如何影响苹果的财务报表。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock: How It Could Be A Great Inflation Play<blockquote>苹果股票：它如何成为一场伟大的通胀游戏</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock: How It Could Be A Great Inflation Play<blockquote>苹果股票：它如何成为一场伟大的通胀游戏</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-28 08:38</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.</p><p><blockquote>由于某些组件的价格上涨，苹果的iPhone 13可能会让消费者花费更多。这对用户来说是个坏消息，但对苹果股票投资者来说可能是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> IPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year (or those looking to switch to the iOS-based product) should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has&nbsp;reported&nbsp;that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.</p><p><blockquote>考虑今年升级设备的IPhone用户（或者那些希望转向基于iOS的产品的用户）应该期待更深入地了解他们的口袋。DigiTimes报道称，由于零部件通胀，苹果的iPhone 13可能会在下个月以更高的价格推出。</blockquote></p><p> Bad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock&nbsp;investors. If the price increase is confirmed, it provides evidence that AAPL might be a great inflation play during these times of worry over rising producer and consumer prices.</p><p><blockquote>对消费者来说是个坏消息，对苹果股票投资者来说可能是个好消息。如果价格上涨得到证实，这将提供证据表明，在人们担心生产者和消费者价格上涨的时期，苹果公司可能会成为一个巨大的通胀工具。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6f4ac9ebc1b90072340731dc5c1e613\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"698\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone 12 Pro.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果的iPhone 12 Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>What happened?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>怎么回事？</b></blockquote></p><p> The iPhone is already considered a pricey tech gadget that can cost as much as $1,400 for the fully loaded, higher-end 12 Pro Max model in the US (see figure below). Due to this year’s components shortage, chip maker TSMC may raise its part prices to Apple by 3% to 5%, which could lead to a similar increase in the price of the yet-to-be-announced iPhone 13.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone已经被认为是一款昂贵的科技产品，在美国，满载的高端12 Pro Max机型售价高达1400美元（见下图）。由于今年的零部件短缺，芯片制造商台积电可能会将其对苹果的零部件价格提高3%至5%，这可能会导致尚未公布的iPhone 13价格出现类似上涨。</blockquote></p><p> It is unlikely that one of the largest and most successful consumer product companies in the world would try to raise prices without confidence that doing so does not impact demand for the new iPhone substantially. Apple can probably afford to hike prices because the company understands the value and the appeal of its luxury brand.</p><p><blockquote>世界上最大、最成功的消费品公司之一不太可能试图提高价格，而不相信这样做不会对新iPhone的需求产生实质性影响。苹果或许有能力提高价格，因为该公司了解其奢侈品牌的价值和吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0140b9b68bb9eb5dd7e88aaff384785d\" tg-width=\"707\" tg-height=\"370\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone 12 Pro on Apple's store.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：苹果商店上的iPhone 12 Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A quote from Jim Cramer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>引用吉姆·克莱默的话</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most concerning headwinds to stocks in the foreseeable future is the possibility of inflation eroding corporate margins and leading to higher interest rates in 2021-2022. But should producer and consumer prices spike, not all stocks will be impacted equally.</p><p><blockquote>在可预见的未来，股市最令人担忧的阻力之一是通胀可能侵蚀企业利润率并导致2021-2022年利率上升。但如果生产者和消费者价格飙升，并非所有股票都会受到同等影响。</blockquote></p><p> Generally speaking, companies with strong pricing power that are able to pass on the higher production costs to consumers will likely outperform. This is a point that&nbsp;Mad Money’s Jim Cramer has made recently. Here is his quote:</p><p><blockquote>一般来说，拥有强大定价权、能够将较高的生产成本转嫁给消费者的公司可能会表现出色。这是Mad Money的吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)最近提出的观点。以下是他的名言：</blockquote></p><p>   “When you try to think of what’s working in this market... I want you to ask yourself, would you be insensitive to a price increase if the company put one through? [What are] the companies that can raise prices without infuriating you? Go buy their stocks.”  <b>The impact to the P&amp;L</b></p><p><blockquote>“当你试图思考这个市场上什么在起作用时……我想让你问问自己，如果公司提价，你会对提价麻木不仁吗？有哪些公司可以提价而不会激怒你？去买他们的股票。”<b>对损益的影响</b></blockquote></p><p> Are higher prices a good or a bad thing for a company’s financial performance? The answer is nuanced and depends on a few factors.</p><p><blockquote>价格上涨对公司的财务业绩是好事还是坏事？答案是微妙的，取决于几个因素。</blockquote></p><p> Holding all else constant, higher prices also mean higher revenues (think of the formula for sales: price times quantity). If the increase in price is decoupled from an increase in product or operating costs, then the hike also helps to boost margins – thus profits as well.</p><p><blockquote>在其他条件不变的情况下，更高的价格也意味着更高的收入（想想销售公式：价格乘以数量）。如果价格上涨与产品或运营成本的增加脱钩，那么涨价也有助于提高利润率，从而提高利润。</blockquote></p><p> However, “holding all else constant” is not how the world really works. A change in price tends to have an impact on a few key variables, most important of which is demand. If higher prices do not impact units sold by much or at all, this is great news for revenues and, most likely, earnings.</p><p><blockquote>然而，“保持其他一切不变”并不是世界真正的运作方式。价格的变化往往会对一些关键变量产生影响，其中最重要的是需求。如果更高的价格不会对售出的单位产生太大影响或根本没有影响，那么这对收入以及最有可能的盈利来说是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> The other piece to consider is whether the price hike fully or only partially offsets higher costs. Assuming the latter, revenues can still benefit without a corresponding positive effect on margins and profits. The complexity presented by the many moving parts makes it hard to determine with certainty how a more expensive iPhone may impact Apple’s financial statements in the future.</p><p><blockquote>另一个需要考虑的问题是价格上涨是否完全或仅部分抵消了更高的成本。假设是后者，收入仍然可以受益，而不会对利润率和利润产生相应的积极影响。许多移动部件所呈现的复杂性使得很难确定更昂贵的iPhone未来可能会如何影响苹果的财务报表。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/apple-stock-how-it-could-be-a-great-inflation-play\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/apple-stock-how-it-could-be-a-great-inflation-play","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162964424","content_text":"Apple’s iPhone 13 could cost consumers more due to an increase in the price of certain components. This is bad news for users, but probably good news for Apple stock investors.\nIPhone users thinking of upgrading their devices this year (or those looking to switch to the iOS-based product) should expect to reach deeper into their pockets. DigiTimes has reported that Apple’s iPhone 13 could be launched next month at a higher price due to parts inflation.\nBad news for consumers could be great news for Apple stock investors. If the price increase is confirmed, it provides evidence that AAPL might be a great inflation play during these times of worry over rising producer and consumer prices.\nFigure 1: Apple's iPhone 12 Pro.\nWhat happened?\nThe iPhone is already considered a pricey tech gadget that can cost as much as $1,400 for the fully loaded, higher-end 12 Pro Max model in the US (see figure below). Due to this year’s components shortage, chip maker TSMC may raise its part prices to Apple by 3% to 5%, which could lead to a similar increase in the price of the yet-to-be-announced iPhone 13.\nIt is unlikely that one of the largest and most successful consumer product companies in the world would try to raise prices without confidence that doing so does not impact demand for the new iPhone substantially. Apple can probably afford to hike prices because the company understands the value and the appeal of its luxury brand.\nFigure 2: iPhone 12 Pro on Apple's store.\nA quote from Jim Cramer\nOne of the most concerning headwinds to stocks in the foreseeable future is the possibility of inflation eroding corporate margins and leading to higher interest rates in 2021-2022. But should producer and consumer prices spike, not all stocks will be impacted equally.\nGenerally speaking, companies with strong pricing power that are able to pass on the higher production costs to consumers will likely outperform. This is a point that Mad Money’s Jim Cramer has made recently. Here is his quote:\n\n “When you try to think of what’s working in this market... I want you to ask yourself, would you be insensitive to a price increase if the company put one through? [What are] the companies that can raise prices without infuriating you? Go buy their stocks.”\n\nThe impact to the P&L\nAre higher prices a good or a bad thing for a company’s financial performance? The answer is nuanced and depends on a few factors.\nHolding all else constant, higher prices also mean higher revenues (think of the formula for sales: price times quantity). If the increase in price is decoupled from an increase in product or operating costs, then the hike also helps to boost margins – thus profits as well.\nHowever, “holding all else constant” is not how the world really works. A change in price tends to have an impact on a few key variables, most important of which is demand. If higher prices do not impact units sold by much or at all, this is great news for revenues and, most likely, earnings.\nThe other piece to consider is whether the price hike fully or only partially offsets higher costs. Assuming the latter, revenues can still benefit without a corresponding positive effect on margins and profits. The complexity presented by the many moving parts makes it hard to determine with certainty how a more expensive iPhone may impact Apple’s financial statements in the future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":269,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":885480848,"gmtCreate":1631812157584,"gmtModify":1631888823958,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Appreciate a like please","listText":"Appreciate a like please","text":"Appreciate a like please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/885480848","repostId":"1138448757","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138448757","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631800047,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138448757?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-16 21:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV maker Lucid shares jumped 4% in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车制造商Lucid股价早盘上涨4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138448757","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV maker Lucid shares jumped 4% in morning trading as its luxury sedan got 520-mile driving range ra","content":"<p>EV maker Lucid shares jumped 4% in morning trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;its luxury sedan got 520-mile driving range rating.In addition,Bank of America predicts 50% gain in Lucid, compares EV maker to Tesla and Ferrari.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商Lucid股价在早盘交易中上涨4%，其豪华轿车获得了520英里的行驶里程评级。此外，美银预计Lucid将上涨50%，并将电动汽车制造商与特斯拉和Ferrari进行比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a80aaa3b21846d26be18701216b5131\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Lucid Group Inc's&nbsp;Air Dream Edition Range luxury sedan has received U.S. government certification for a range of 520 miles, the electric vehicle maker said on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商Lucid Group Inc.周四表示，其Air Dream Edition Range豪华轿车已获得美国政府认证，续航里程为520英里。</blockquote></p><p> The sedan was the longest-range EV rated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the company said. Rival Tesla's Model S Long Range has an EPA estimated range of 405 miles.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，这款轿车是美国环境保护署（EPA）评定的续航里程最长的电动汽车。竞争对手特斯拉的Model S Long Range EPA估计续航里程为405英里。</blockquote></p><p> EV manufacturers are pushing to extend the driving range of their vehicles in a bid to better compete with gasoline-fueled ones. However, as consumers rapidly transition to EVs, charging infrastructure still remains a concern.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商正在努力延长车辆的行驶里程，以便更好地与汽油燃料汽车竞争。然而，随着消费者迅速转向电动汽车，充电基础设施仍然是一个令人担忧的问题。</blockquote></p><p> The Biden administration's infrastructure bill includes $7.5 billion for electric vehicle charging stations.</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府的基础设施法案包括75亿美元用于电动汽车充电站。</blockquote></p><p> Lucid made its debut on the Nasdaq in July after completing its merger with a blank-check company backed by Wall Street dealmaker Michael Klein in a deal that valued the combined company at $24 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid于7月在纳斯达克首次亮相，此前该公司完成了与华尔街交易撮合者Michael Klein支持的一家空白支票公司的合并，合并后的公司估值为240亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The EV maker in August said it would begin deliveries of fully reserved 'Air Dream Edition Range' cars later this year.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车制造商八月份表示，将于今年晚些时候开始交付完全预订的“Air Dream Edition系列”汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV maker Lucid shares jumped 4% in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车制造商Lucid股价早盘上涨4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV maker Lucid shares jumped 4% in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车制造商Lucid股价早盘上涨4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-16 21:47</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>EV maker Lucid shares jumped 4% in morning trading&nbsp;as&nbsp;its luxury sedan got 520-mile driving range rating.In addition,Bank of America predicts 50% gain in Lucid, compares EV maker to Tesla and Ferrari.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商Lucid股价在早盘交易中上涨4%，其豪华轿车获得了520英里的行驶里程评级。此外，美银预计Lucid将上涨50%，并将电动汽车制造商与特斯拉和Ferrari进行比较。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a80aaa3b21846d26be18701216b5131\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Lucid Group Inc's&nbsp;Air Dream Edition Range luxury sedan has received U.S. government certification for a range of 520 miles, the electric vehicle maker said on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商Lucid Group Inc.周四表示，其Air Dream Edition Range豪华轿车已获得美国政府认证，续航里程为520英里。</blockquote></p><p> The sedan was the longest-range EV rated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the company said. Rival Tesla's Model S Long Range has an EPA estimated range of 405 miles.</p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，这款轿车是美国环境保护署（EPA）评定的续航里程最长的电动汽车。竞争对手特斯拉的Model S Long Range EPA估计续航里程为405英里。</blockquote></p><p> EV manufacturers are pushing to extend the driving range of their vehicles in a bid to better compete with gasoline-fueled ones. However, as consumers rapidly transition to EVs, charging infrastructure still remains a concern.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车制造商正在努力延长车辆的行驶里程，以便更好地与汽油燃料汽车竞争。然而，随着消费者迅速转向电动汽车，充电基础设施仍然是一个令人担忧的问题。</blockquote></p><p> The Biden administration's infrastructure bill includes $7.5 billion for electric vehicle charging stations.</p><p><blockquote>拜登政府的基础设施法案包括75亿美元用于电动汽车充电站。</blockquote></p><p> Lucid made its debut on the Nasdaq in July after completing its merger with a blank-check company backed by Wall Street dealmaker Michael Klein in a deal that valued the combined company at $24 billion.</p><p><blockquote>Lucid于7月在纳斯达克首次亮相，此前该公司完成了与华尔街交易撮合者Michael Klein支持的一家空白支票公司的合并，合并后的公司估值为240亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The EV maker in August said it would begin deliveries of fully reserved 'Air Dream Edition Range' cars later this year.</p><p><blockquote>这家电动汽车制造商八月份表示，将于今年晚些时候开始交付完全预订的“Air Dream Edition系列”汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138448757","content_text":"EV maker Lucid shares jumped 4% in morning trading as its luxury sedan got 520-mile driving range rating.In addition,Bank of America predicts 50% gain in Lucid, compares EV maker to Tesla and Ferrari.\n\nLucid Group Inc's Air Dream Edition Range luxury sedan has received U.S. government certification for a range of 520 miles, the electric vehicle maker said on Thursday.\nThe sedan was the longest-range EV rated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the company said. Rival Tesla's Model S Long Range has an EPA estimated range of 405 miles.\nEV manufacturers are pushing to extend the driving range of their vehicles in a bid to better compete with gasoline-fueled ones. However, as consumers rapidly transition to EVs, charging infrastructure still remains a concern.\nThe Biden administration's infrastructure bill includes $7.5 billion for electric vehicle charging stations.\nLucid made its debut on the Nasdaq in July after completing its merger with a blank-check company backed by Wall Street dealmaker Michael Klein in a deal that valued the combined company at $24 billion.\nThe EV maker in August said it would begin deliveries of fully reserved 'Air Dream Edition Range' cars later this year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":412,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":847790922,"gmtCreate":1636552402252,"gmtModify":1636552403042,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Please rocket!","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Please rocket!","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Please rocket!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b225b0621cab481413090e765dea66a","width":"1125","height":"3409"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847790922","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864701514,"gmtCreate":1633144103071,"gmtModify":1633144103651,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sounds good","listText":"Sounds good","text":"Sounds good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864701514","repostId":"2172696913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":818734781,"gmtCreate":1630449056743,"gmtModify":1631892680423,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🙏🏻","listText":"🙏🏻","text":"🙏🏻","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818734781","repostId":"1180856610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":855656042,"gmtCreate":1635374981997,"gmtModify":1635377463008,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Facebook(FB)$</a>Can buy now?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">$Facebook(FB)$</a>Can buy now?","text":"$Facebook(FB)$Can buy now?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/390614b2958986451f90a343c029980f","width":"1125","height":"3735"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855656042","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1220,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":880426608,"gmtCreate":1631074133204,"gmtModify":1631888823965,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yeay&nbsp;","listText":"Yeay&nbsp;","text":"Yeay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880426608","repostId":"1143120804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143120804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631072080,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1143120804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 11:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143120804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth ra","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li>  <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li>  <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li>  <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠诚客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote></p><p> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（“c”）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = C x A</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*B=C x A</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Backlinko</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Backlinko</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Marketing Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：营销图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: eMarketer</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：eMarketer</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.</p><p><blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（“c”）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>91.43</p><p><blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>108.35</p><p><blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = A x C</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*B=A x C</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*D = B x E</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*D=B x E</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Rise of Third-party Seller Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三方卖家服务的兴起</b></blockquote></p><p> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote></p><p> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.</p><p><blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote></p><p> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.</p><p><blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FourWeekMBA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.</p><p><blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: WebFX</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：WebFX</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21%</p><p><blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11%</p><p><blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16%</p><p><blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>103</p><p><blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>130</p><p><blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>160</p><p><blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>200</p><p><blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>295</p><p><blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>353</p><p><blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>443</p><p><blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>553</p><p><blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>% Of Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>0.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.99</p><p><blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.88</p><p><blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>38.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>*C = A x B</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*C=A × B</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*E = C x D</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*E=C x D</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AWS按数据量增长增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote></p><p> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.</p><p><blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>AWS Forecasts</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>AWS预测</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Market Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>30.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.</p><p><blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.</p><p><blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote></p><p> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.</p><p><blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.57x</p><p><blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Alibaba (BABA)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.14x</p><p><blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.89x</p><p><blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Google</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.46x</p><p><blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Average</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>均值</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>24.52x</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>24.52 x</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: SeekingAlpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：SeekingAlpha</i></blockquote></p><p> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Online stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Physical stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.22</p><p><blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.19</p><p><blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.23</p><p><blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.40</p><p><blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.55</p><p><blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.38</p><p><blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>196.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-0.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Subscription services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.17</p><p><blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.21</p><p><blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.21</p><p><blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.67</p><p><blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.68</p><p><blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>65.58</p><p><blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Other</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.11</p><p><blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.09</p><p><blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.45</p><p><blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.27</p><p><blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.60</p><p><blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.48</p><p><blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>117.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>52.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总的</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>232.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>232.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>280.53</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>280.53</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>386.07</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>386.07</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>447.0</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>447.0</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>545.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>545.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>669.1</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>669.1</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total Growth %</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总增长%</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>30.9%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>30.9%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>20.5%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>20.5%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>37.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>37.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>15.8%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>15.8%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.1%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.1%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</i></blockquote></p><p> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.</p><p><blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as a<i>Buy</i>with a price target of<i>$4,363.96.</i></p><p><blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的比例预计将继续上升，预计到2023年这一比例将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为<i>购买</i>目标价格为<i>$4,363.96.</i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Amazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAmazon: Stock Still Attractive With Shift Towards E-Commerce And Cloud Growth<blockquote>亚马逊：随着转向电子商务和云增长，股票仍然具有吸引力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 11:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.</li>  <li>While growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.</li>  <li>AWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.</li>  <li>We revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d2ca0bbeb0cb7be66a257f4e9d5f5fa1\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>公司2020年收入增长超出我们预期，我们将其增长率预测修正为15.8%。</li><li>尽管在经历了强劲活动的辉煌一年后，增长正在放缓，但该公司仍有望从电子商务转变中受益，预计零售渗透率为22%。</li><li>在可预见的未来，AWS预计仍将是第一大市场领导者。</li><li>我们使用DCF分析修改了估值，从3,358.73美元获得了4,303.18美元的新目标价。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>4kodiak/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Since our previous&nbsp;coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.</p><p><blockquote>自我们上次报道以来，亚马逊公司(AMZN)的股价已上涨26%，超出了我们24.5%的收入增长预期，并在2020年底上涨了37.6%，其在线零售业务增长了40%，达到近2000亿美元，第三方服务800亿美元。在本次分析中，我们重新审视了其主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方服务和AWS。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3&nbsp;guidance&nbsp;of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.</p><p><blockquote>尽管第二季度网上商店销售额增长疲软13%，第三季度同比指引中点疲软13%，表明增长正常化的迹象，但电子商务市场的长期增长前景仍然具有吸引力。亚马逊已确立市场地位的在线零售。随着越来越多的消费者将购买行为转移到网上，预计到2023年，电子商务的份额将从2020年的18%达到22%。我们相信，亚马逊稳固的市场地位、作为忠诚客户的庞大Prime会员基础以及坚实的物流和运输网络为其提供了优势，正如其与第三方卖家的电子商务市场的崛起所证明的那样。此外，在可预见的未来，其云业务预计仍将是云基础设施市场的市场领导者，持续致力于增长并以不断增长的数据量为基础。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4a78658eabc40ec60c6713019d6f800c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>E-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>尽管增长正常化，电子商务销售前景仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon's online store&nbsp;sales&nbsp;have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊的在线商店销售额在2020年从上一年的14.8%飙升了40%，因为它受益于对实体零售商的长期封锁和限制，加速了向电子商务的采用。然而，尽管2021年第二季度在线商店增长同比放缓13%，而第一季度为41%，但我们相信该公司将继续受益于电子商务采用率不断上升的长期推动力。</blockquote></p><p> According to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to&nbsp;reach&nbsp;22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>根据eMarketer的数据，随着消费者继续转向在线购买，电子商务销售额的份额预计将达到全球零售额的22%。随着全球疫苗接种运动和商业限制的放松，全球零售额预计将反弹7.2%。因此，2021年电子商务销售额预测为10.2%，较2019年的27.6%实现正常化增长，渗透率从去年的14%飙升至18%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Global E-Commerce Market ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>全球电子商务市场（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Global Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（“c”）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = C x A</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*B=C x A</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、eMarketer、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Amazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US&nbsp;population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊既定的市场定位是其利用市场增长的额外竞争优势。更具体地说，很难在价格、选择和便利性等关键标准上赢得公司的支持。显然，该公司的Prime会员在2020年继续增长15%，达到1.425亿会员，约占美国人口的43%。这表明忠实客户对该公司具有强大的吸引力，为其提供了庞大的安装基础。通过Prime会员，也推动消费者购买更多，以获得各种福利。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/125c2baa1b52e2787075210f05321e20\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"492\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Backlinko</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Backlinko</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently&nbsp;attract&nbsp;sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>除了Prime会员之外，该公司还能够持续吸引卖家到其平台，自2017年以来新增卖家330万人，即每天3,718人。目前，它在美国、英国、德国、日本等地拥有970万卖家。因此，该公司已确立了自己作为市场主导者的地位，并在电子商务销售方面远远领先于第二接近的竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6272ba7ee8cf6f5aab477b8425f34923\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Marketing Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：营销图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Its market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer &amp; consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel &amp; accessories, books music &amp; video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>如下表所示，其在不同产品类别和市场中的市场领导地位相当广泛。例如，其消费品和消费电子产品销售额是最大的产品类别，占美国电子商务总销售额的50.2%，占零售总额的26.7%。其次是服装和配饰、书籍、音乐和视频以及家具和家居用品，分别占电子商务销售额的32%、83.2%和34.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6765530fd408a02c75515a712af4087\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"725\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: eMarketer</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：eMarketer</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Among the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having&nbsp;purchased&nbsp;electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software&nbsp;updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker&nbsp;units&nbsp;and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average&nbsp;price&nbsp;of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.</p><p><blockquote>在产品类别中，电子产品类别最受美国购物者欢迎，44%的美国购物者在亚马逊上购买过电子产品。它还销售自己的电子设备，包括Echo智能扬声器，占美国市场份额的70%，其次是谷歌(GOOG)和苹果(AAPL)，并继续通过新一代产品和软件更新来开发该产品。2020年，该公司智能音箱出货量超过3800万台，占全球出货量市场份额的28.3%。根据Echo产品系列103美元的平均价格，我们估计其智能扬声器销售收入约为39.4亿美元，约占其在线商店收入的2%。然而，它也面临着日益激烈的竞争，尤其是来自主导中国市场的百度（BIDU）和小米（OTCPK：XIACF）等中国制造商的竞争。</blockquote></p><p> All in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln&nbsp;products&nbsp;excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，该公司拥有1200万种产品，不包括书籍、媒体、葡萄酒和服务，随着卖家基础的不断增长，我们预计这一产品广度将继续扩大，并通过产品多样性为客户提供独特的价值主张。</blockquote></p><p> Thus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们预计其拥有稳固的市场主导地位，拥有成熟的客户群和忠诚的Prime会员生态系统，以及在各种关键产品类别中拥有广泛的市场领导地位和广泛的产品广度的庞大卖家基础，以支持其长期增长。我们预测其在线商店增长是基于我们对其市场份额的预期（基于全球电子商务销售额的5年平均值）为4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Online Stores ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊在线商店（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Total Retail Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售销售总额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21,453</p><p><blockquote><td>21,453</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22,904</p><p><blockquote><td>22,904</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,560</p><p><blockquote><td>23,560</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24,780</p><p><blockquote><td>24,780</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23,778</p><p><blockquote><td>23,778</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25,490</p><p><blockquote><td>25,490</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27,172</p><p><blockquote><td>27,172</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28,395</p><p><blockquote><td>28,395</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-4.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>-4.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail E-commerce Sales ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售电子商务销售额（“b”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Penetration Rate ('c')</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>渗透率（“c”）</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>10%</p><p><blockquote><td>10%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12%</p><p><blockquote><td>12%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14%</p><p><blockquote><td>14%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18%</p><p><blockquote><td>18%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19%</p><p><blockquote><td>19%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20%</p><p><blockquote><td>20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22%</p><p><blockquote><td>22%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>16.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>17.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>11.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>2.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店收入('d')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>91.43</p><p><blockquote><td>91.43</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>108.35</p><p><blockquote><td>108.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>18.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊在线商店市场份额('e')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>* B = A x C</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*B=A x C</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*D = B x E</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*D=B x E</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Rise of Third-party Seller Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三方卖家服务的兴起</b></blockquote></p><p> Another major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个主要优势是其物流和运输业务，这已成为一条难以逾越的护城河，很少有其他公司拥有资源或能力与之匹敌，亚马逊与该国大多数主要送货提供商合作。通过利用其强大的网络，它提供的计划使卖家能够通过其市场销售产品并通过公司履行订单。</blockquote></p><p> With Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore&nbsp;products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.</p><p><blockquote>通过亚马逊物流（“FBA”），第三方卖家在亚马逊的运营中心存储产品，并为这些产品挑选、包装、运输和提供客户服务。亚马逊不是卖家，但从主要由中小型企业组成的第三方卖家的安排中赚取佣金以及相关的履行和运输费用，包括库存管理、支付处理、货件跟踪和报告。</blockquote></p><p> Selling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately&nbsp;provides&nbsp;more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising&nbsp;share&nbsp;of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.</p><p><blockquote>作为第三方卖家在亚马逊上销售是卖家越来越受欢迎的选择。它最终提供了更大的灵活性和控制力、更强大的品牌影响力和更好的数据访问。在过去的几年里，亚马逊上第三方卖家的崛起，第三方销售额占其商品总销售额的比例不断上升，达到总销售额的62%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed0a2a75af197d4bf9dca92caab27d6c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: FourWeekMBA</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：FourWeekMBA</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it&nbsp;enhances&nbsp;its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business&nbsp;delivered&nbsp;1.9 bln packages in the US.</p><p><blockquote>下图进一步说明了亚马逊庞大的物流和运输网络。其履行中心网络是其增强物流和运输流程的几种方式之一，与联邦快递和UPS竞争，并且一直在加大力度推出其交付网络以及不断增长的飞机、无人机和货车机队。亚马逊自己的物流业务在美国运送了19亿个包裹。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732f32df08132a67f1f9ead2376b2fb\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"233\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: WebFX</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：WebFX</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Moreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming&nbsp;opening&nbsp;of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it&nbsp;announced&nbsp;plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.</p><p><blockquote>此外，其广泛的物流和运输覆盖范围在美国拥有100多个活跃仓库，其中加利福尼亚州、德克萨斯州和新泽西州的设施数量最多。此外，它正在南部大力扩张，规划仓库数量最多。例如，即将于2021年在密苏里州开设一个100万平方英尺的履行中心，员工将在那里包装和运输大型客户物品，如庭院家具、户外设备或地毯。2020年，该公司宣布了7个新履行中心的计划，包括佛罗里达州600,000平方英尺的设施、田纳西州855,000平方英尺的设施和德克萨斯州625,000平方英尺的履行中心。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45f3a6df0a41b23e4f1d8fe2edb77d3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Overall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has&nbsp;free&nbsp;Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，这些都是该公司凭借其广泛的物流网络在运输速度方面的优势的因素之一。该公司因其快速运输而非常受欢迎，甚至为Prime会员提供免费的两天甚至当天运输计划。根据下面的调查，大多数人或80%的人认为快速和免费送货是选择亚马逊的主要原因。我们相信，公司的计划扩张将继续增强其物流网络并保持其在客户中的受欢迎程度。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4143366dbcb762fad253420cdb1b5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"409\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> We forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which&nbsp;represents&nbsp;60% of its total sales.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测了该公司的零售第三方卖家服务收入，其中包括来自第三方卖家销售的履行服务相关收入。随着第三方销售在其市场上越来越受欢迎，亚马逊的第三方商品销售总额预计将在过去5年的平均增长率为9%。此外，我们还预测，随着亚马逊继续扩大其履行能力以迎合第三方卖家，亚马逊的收入份额将从两年平均水平的27.3%增长1%。这一趋势也被认为对公司的利润率扩张具有重要意义，因为第三方卖家服务的毛利率估计在销售额的60%至75%之间，低于AWS的80%，但仍高于公司的整体毛利率37%由于与占总销售额60%的销售成本相关的高成本。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Third-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>第三方卖家服务收入（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2016</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2016</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2017</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2017</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Global Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>全球零售电子商务销售额（“a”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1,845</p><p><blockquote><td>1,845</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,382</p><p><blockquote><td>2,382</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>2,982</p><p><blockquote><td>2,982</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>3,354</p><p><blockquote><td>3,354</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,280</p><p><blockquote><td>4,280</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4,716</p><p><blockquote><td>4,716</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5,434</p><p><blockquote><td>5,434</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6,247</p><p><blockquote><td>6,247</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>12.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>12.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>10.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon Third Party Market Share ('b')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊第三方市场份额('b')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>5.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>5.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>8.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>8.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21%</p><p><blockquote><td>21%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>11%</p><p><blockquote><td>11%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16%</p><p><blockquote><td>16%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Third-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>第三方（亚马逊商城）GMV('c')</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>103</p><p><blockquote><td>103</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>130</p><p><blockquote><td>130</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>160</p><p><blockquote><td>160</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>200</p><p><blockquote><td>200</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>295</p><p><blockquote><td>295</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>353</p><p><blockquote><td>353</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>443</p><p><blockquote><td>443</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>553</p><p><blockquote><td>553</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>23.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>23.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>19.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>% Of Revenues ('d')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>佔收入百分比（“d”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>24.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>24.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>27.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>27.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>28.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>9.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>9.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>0.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>0.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>1.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>1.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services revenues ('e')</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务收入（“e”）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.99</p><p><blockquote><td>22.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.88</p><p><blockquote><td>31.88</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>38.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>38.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>*C = A x B</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*C=A × B</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>*E = C x D</i></p><p><blockquote><i>*E=C x D</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Statista、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>AWS Growth by Data Volume Growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AWS按数据量增长增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Another key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的另一个关键增长领域是云计算，拥有Netflix(NFLX)、Verizon(VZ)、Capital One(COF)、麦当劳(MCD)等著名大客户。2020年AWS收入强劲增长29.5%，占据云基础设施市场31.8%的市场份额。自近20年前推出以来，它多年来已发展成为市场领导者，尽管竞争日益激烈，尤其是来自微软(MSFT)和谷歌的市场份额超过了亚马逊的增长，但它似乎将在可预见的未来维持现状。</blockquote></p><p> The rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.</p><p><blockquote>到2025年，全球数据量将增长23%，这支撑了云基础设施市场的快速增长，因为随着数据分析、5G和物联网的兴起，世界变得更加数据驱动，数据量预计将增长到180 zettabytes以上刺激了数据创建的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d467bae68efe047fa8c695360d5b551c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23%&nbsp;CAGR&nbsp;through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.</p><p><blockquote>我们预测云基础设施市场的增长基于到2025年数据量以23%的CAGR增长，平均云基础设施/数据增长系数为1.72。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd3a646de29cd8f5659eeaabcbf4831d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*A=B x C资料来源：Statista、Khaveen Investments</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently&nbsp;announced&nbsp;a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管随着微软等竞争对手的增长速度超过AWS，AWS的市场份额趋于稳定，但我们仍然相信随着数据量的增长，云基础设施市场存在巨大机遇。更不用说，该公司通过新的客户关系强调了其对AWS的承诺，例如世界各地的主要体育联盟，包括国家曲棍球联盟、PGA巡回赛、一级方程式赛车和德国德甲联赛。此外，它最近还宣布与Dish Network建立合作关系，以构建基于云的5G基础设施，并将扩大其在以色列和阿拉伯联合酋长国的数据中心足迹。它目前在25个地理区域提供80个可用区，并计划再推出15个可用区来支持其云增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ebc384fe7bf254090200574fd352254\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Canalys, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Canalys、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> All in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，我们基于市场份额预测假设来预测AWS的收入增长，即其市场份额领先地位正在被快速增长的竞争对手（尤其是微软）慢慢削弱，但在利用AWS的稳固大客户关系的支持下仍保持其市场领先地位。根据到2023年30.7%的市场份额预测，我们预计AWS收入将增长至815亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>AWS Forecasts</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>AWS预测</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Market Share</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS市场份额</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>32.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>32.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>30.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>30.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS Revenues ($ bln)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS收入（十亿美元）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：亚马逊、Canalys、Khaveen Investments</i></blockquote></p><p> While AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然AWS仅占其总收入的11%，但与其他公司部门的2.8%相比，其29%的高利润率使AWS在2020年占营业收入的59%，这凸显了AWS对其利润的重要性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17ae44c90f44af56478935039edb4cc7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：亚马逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Antimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>反垄断和数据隐私罚款风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Amazon has been&nbsp;involved&nbsp;in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.</p><p><blockquote>民主党的报告称，亚马逊一直被指控不公平地从第三方卖家那里获取数据和信息，该公司在美国的电子商务市场份额约为40%。由于卖家对亚马逊销售渠道的依赖，亚马逊可以向卖家收取额外费用，并进一步惩罚卖家在其他网站上降低价格的行为。此外，由众议院议员组成的两党小组正在推动包括亚马逊在内的大型科技公司在一系列广泛的反垄断改革下对其商业行为进行彻底改革，这将使占主导地位的平台更难完成合并，并禁止它们拥有存在明显利益冲突的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Whereas in the&nbsp;European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>而在欧盟，亚马逊遭受了迄今为止最大的GDPR罚款。欧盟正在超越数据泄露，专注于数据实践。亚马逊因违反欧盟数据保护规则而面临8.88亿美元的罚款。亚马逊被指控违反了欧盟的通用数据保护条例（GDPR）。GDPR允许罚款高达亚马逊收入的4%，公布的数字显示，这约占亚马逊2020年213亿美元收入的4.2%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> The company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.</p><p><blockquote>该公司过去5年的平均收入增长率为29.4%，平均毛利率和净利润率分别为38.6%和3.5%。该公司的优势在于其利润率不断上升，因为由于其利润率更高的云业务的卓越增长，其净利润率也有所上升。AWS部门的营业利润率高达29.6%，而其余业务部门的营业利润率为2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a075f1644a849d94c77b8707596cf501\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> More importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，该公司拥有良好且强大的现金产生能力，过去5年的平均自由现金流利润率为3.01%。2017年，由于以137亿美元收购Whole Foods，其自由现金流利润率下降。其现金流的优势在于利润率的上升，因为其利润更高的AWS业务比其他部门表现出更高的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78710672b48942ad15fa6ecdd9fffaf9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的资产负债表实力在于其偿还债务的强大能力。2020年其净债务为1130亿美元，2020年EBITDA/利息覆盖率为44倍。随着AWS的卓越增长，其盈利能力不断提高，其比率在过去5年中从32倍稳步上升。</blockquote></p><p> To value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.</p><p><blockquote>为了对亚马逊进行估值，我们使用了DCF估值，因为该公司过去拥有正的自由现金流。基于可比公司，我们得到的行业平均EV/EBITDA为27.64倍，如下表所示。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Company</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>公司</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>EV/EBITDA</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Amazon</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>亚马逊</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>28.57x</p><p><blockquote><td>28.57 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Alibaba (BABA)</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>阿里巴巴-SW（父亲）</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.14x</p><p><blockquote><td>21.14 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Microsoft</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>微软</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.89x</p><p><blockquote><td>25.89 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Google</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>谷歌</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.46x</p><p><blockquote><td>22.46 x</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Average</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>均值</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>24.52x</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>24.52 x</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: SeekingAlpha</i></p><p><blockquote><i>来源：SeekingAlpha</i></blockquote></p><p> The revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.</p><p><blockquote>收入增长预测根据其在线商店、实体店、零售第三方卖家服务、订阅服务、AWS和其他的收入细分总结如下。网上商店预测源自其对电子商务市场预测增长的市场份额假设，而实体店销售则基于2021年7.2%的零售额增长率预测。零售第三方卖家服务来自其在整个电子商务市场中的第三方卖家GMV份额，并假设其从佣金和相关费用中获得%的收入。基于不断增长的数据量预测，AWS收入来自云市场增长。其他细分市场基于其平均3年增长率。2023年之后，我们下调了增长预测，到2027年，电子商务和云计算市场的加权复合年增长率为14.2%，并从2027年的12.3%逐步下调，到2030年每年下降2%，因为我们预计电子商务和云计算市场将更加成熟。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td><b>Amazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)</b></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td><b>亚马逊收入预测（十亿美元）</b></td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2018</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2018</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2019</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2019</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2020</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2020</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2021F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2021F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2022F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2022F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>2023F</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>2023F</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Online stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>在线商店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>122.99</p><p><blockquote><td>122.99</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>141.25</p><p><blockquote><td>141.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>197.35</p><p><blockquote><td>197.35</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>211.74</p><p><blockquote><td>211.74</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>244.02</p><p><blockquote><td>244.02</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>280.50</p><p><blockquote><td>280.50</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>13.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>13.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>14.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>15.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>15.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Physical stores</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>实体店</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.22</p><p><blockquote><td>17.22</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.19</p><p><blockquote><td>17.19</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>16.23</p><p><blockquote><td>16.23</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>17.40</p><p><blockquote><td>17.40</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>18.55</p><p><blockquote><td>18.55</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.38</p><p><blockquote><td>19.38</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>196.9%</p><p><blockquote><td>196.9%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-0.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>-0.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>-5.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>-5.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>7.20%</p><p><blockquote><td>7.20%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>6.60%</p><p><blockquote><td>6.60%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>4.50%</p><p><blockquote><td>4.50%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Retail third-party seller services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>零售第三方卖家服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>42.75</p><p><blockquote><td>42.75</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>53.76</p><p><blockquote><td>53.76</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>80.46</p><p><blockquote><td>80.46</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>97.37</p><p><blockquote><td>97.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>123.25</p><p><blockquote><td>123.25</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>155.61</p><p><blockquote><td>155.61</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.1%</p><p><blockquote><td>34.1%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>25.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>49.7%</p><p><blockquote><td>49.7%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>21.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>26.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>26.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Subscription services</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>订阅服务</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.17</p><p><blockquote><td>14.17</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>19.21</p><p><blockquote><td>19.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.21</p><p><blockquote><td>25.21</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>34.67</p><p><blockquote><td>34.67</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.68</p><p><blockquote><td>47.68</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>65.58</p><p><blockquote><td>65.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.6%</p><p><blockquote><td>35.6%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>31.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>37.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>37.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>AWS</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>AWS</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>25.66</p><p><blockquote><td>25.66</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>35.03</p><p><blockquote><td>35.03</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.37</p><p><blockquote><td>45.37</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>54.58</p><p><blockquote><td>54.58</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.81</p><p><blockquote><td>66.81</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>81.52</p><p><blockquote><td>81.52</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>47.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>47.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>36.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>36.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>29.5%</p><p><blockquote><td>29.5%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>20.3%</p><p><blockquote><td>20.3%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>22.0%</p><p><blockquote><td>22.0%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Other</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>其他的</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>10.11</p><p><blockquote><td>10.11</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>14.09</p><p><blockquote><td>14.09</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>21.45</p><p><blockquote><td>21.45</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>31.27</p><p><blockquote><td>31.27</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.60</p><p><blockquote><td>45.60</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>66.48</p><p><blockquote><td>66.48</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Growth %</p><p><blockquote><tr><td>增长%</td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>117.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>117.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>39.4%</p><p><blockquote><td>39.4%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>52.2%</p><p><blockquote><td>52.2%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>45.8%</p><p><blockquote><td>45.8%</td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总的</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>232.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>232.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>280.53</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>280.53</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>386.07</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>386.07</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>447.0</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>447.0</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>545.9</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>545.9</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>669.1</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>669.1</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Total Growth %</b></p><p><blockquote><tr><td><b>总增长%</b></td></tr></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>30.9%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>30.9%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>20.5%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>20.5%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>37.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>37.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>15.8%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>15.8%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.1%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.1%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td><b>22.6%</b></p><p><blockquote><td><b>22.6%</b></td></blockquote></p><p></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> <i>Source: Amazon, Khaveen Investments</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：亚马逊、Khaveen投资</i></blockquote></p><p> Based on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.</p><p><blockquote>基于12.7%的贴现率（公司的WACC），我们的模型显示上涨空间为36.9%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74c5d7c65d544d533d2e87bb62270fb1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Khaveen Investments</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：卡文投资</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Verdict</b></p><p><blockquote><b>裁决</b></blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as a<i>Buy</i>with a price target of<i>$4,363.96.</i></p><p><blockquote>总之，我们分析了该公司的主要增长动力，即在线零售、第三方卖家服务和AWS。虽然加速增长最终结束，但作为电子商务领域成熟且占主导地位的市场领导者，其增长前景仍然极具吸引力。随着消费者购买行为转向电子商务，电子商务销售额占零售总额的比例预计将继续上升，预计到2023年这一比例将达到22%。该公司的Prime会员为其提供了大约占美国人口一半的忠实客户群。此外，另一个关键优势是其庞大的物流和运输网络，亚马逊FBA在其在线市场上看到第三方卖家的持续增长。最后，在可预见的未来，AWS仍然是明显的市场领导者，与大型企业客户有着密切的关系，管理层也不断致力于满足该细分市场不断增长的基础设施需求。因此，尽管预计2021年增长正常化，但我们认为其前景继续受到电子商务和云计算市场不断增长的提振，并将我们的增长率预测修正为2021年的15.8%，随后修正为2020年的22%。总体而言，我们将该股评级为<i>购买</i>目标价格为<i>$4,363.96.</i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453926-amazon-stock-still-attractive","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143120804","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe company’s revenue growth in 2020 exceeded our expectations and we revised its growth rate forecast to 15.8%.\nWhile growth is moderating following a stellar year with robust activity, the company remains poised to benefit from the e-commerce shift with a forecast penetration rate of 22% of retail.\nAWS is expected to remain as the number 1 market leader for the foreseeable future.\nWe revised our valuation using DCF analysis to obtain a new price target of $4,303,18 from $3,358.73.\n\n4kodiak/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images\nSince our previous coverage, Amazon Inc.'s (AMZN) stock has risen by 26% and exceeded our revenue growth expectations of 24.5% and finished 2020 up by 37.6% on exceptional growth of its online retail business growing by 40% to nearly $200 bln and third-party services at $80bln. In this analysis, we re-examine its key growth drivers namely online retail, third party services and AWS.\nDespite the softness in Q2 of its online store sales growth of 13% and soft Q3 guidance of 13% YoY at the midpoint, indicating a sign of normalizing growth, the secular growth outlook of the e-commerce market remains attractive from the continued shift towards online retail which Amazon has an established market position. As more consumers shift their purchasing behavior online, the share of e-commerce is forecasted to reach 22% by 2023 from 18% in 2020. We believe that Amazon's well-established market position with a massive Prime membership base as loyal customers and solid logistics and shipping network providing it with an advantage as seen with the rise of its e-commerce marketplace with third-party sellers. Moreover, its cloud business is expected to remain the market leader of the cloud infrastructure market for the foreseeable future with continued commitment towards growth and underpinned by rising data volumes.\nSource: Amazon\nE-commerce Sales Outlook Still Attractive Despite Normalizing Growth\nAmazon's online store sales have surged 40% in 2020 from 14.8% in the prior year as it benefitted from the prolonged lockdowns and restrictions on physical retailers which saw the accelerated shift towards e-commerce adoption. However, despite the slowdown in its online store growth in Q2 2021 of 13% YoY compared to 41% in Q1, we believe that the company is poised to continue reaping the secular tailwinds of the rising e-commerce adoption.\nAccording to eMarketer, the share of e-commerce sales is forecasted to reach 22% of global retail sales as consumers continue to shift towards online buying. Global retail sales are forecasted to bound back by 7.2% with the vaccination drives across the world and easing business restrictions. Thus, the e-commerce sales forecast is 10.2% in 2021 which represents a normalized growth from 27.6% in 2019 as the penetration rate surged to 18% from 14% in the past year.\n\n\n\nGlobal E-Commerce Market ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Global Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\n\n* B = C x A\nSource: Statista, eMarketer, Khaveen Investments\nAmazon's established market positioning is an added competitive strength of it to capitalize on the market growth. More specifically, it is hard to win over the company in the key criteria of price, choice and convenience. Evidently, the company's Prime membership continued to grow in 2020 by 15% to 142.5 mln members or roughly 43% of the US population. This indicates the strong attraction of loyal customers to the company providing it with a massive install base. Through Prime membership, consumers are also pushed to buy more to obtain various benefits.\nSource: Backlinko\nIn addition to Prime members, the company has been able to consistently attract sellers to its platform with 3.3 mln new sellers since 2017 or 3,718 per day. Currently, it has 9.7 mlnsellersworldwide across the US, UK, Germany, Japan, etc. Thus, the company has established itself as the dominant market leader and is far ahead of its next closest competitor in terms of e-commerce sales.\nSource: Marketing Charts\nIts market leadership is quite extensive across different product categories and markets as illustrated in the table below. For example, it accounts for Its consumer & consumer electronics sales is the largest product category accounting for 50.2% of the products' total e-commerce sales in the US and 26.7% of total retail sales. This is followed by apparel & accessories, books music & video and furniture and home furnishings which is 32%, 83.2% and 34.2 % of e-commerce sales.\nSource: eMarketer\nAmong the product categories, the electronics category is the most popular among shoppers in the US with 44% of US shoppers having purchased electronics on Amazon. It also sells its own electronicdevicesincluding Echo smart speakers which account for 70% of the US market share followed by Google (GOOG) and Apple (AAPL) and continues to develop the product with newer generations and software updates. In 2020, the company shipped over 38 mln smart speaker units and accounted for 28.3% of the global market share of shipments. We estimated its revenues from the sale of its smart speakers based on the average price of the Echo product family of $103 to be around $3.94 bln in revenues which is around 2% of its online store revenues. However, it also faces increasing competition especially from the Chinese manufacturers such as Baidu (BIDU) and Xiaomi (OTCPK:XIACF) which dominate the China market.\nAll in all, the company has a massive product breadth of 12 mln products excluding books, media, wine and services and with the growing seller base, we expect this product breadth to continue to be expanded and provide customers unique value proposition with product variety.\nThus, we expect its solid market dominance with an ecosystem of an established customer base and loyal Prime members and a large seller base with extensive market leadership across various key product categories with a broad product breadth to support its long-term growth. We projected its online store growth based on our expectation of its market share at 4.5% based on a 5-year average on the global e-commerce sales.\n\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nTotal Retail Sales ('a')\n21,453\n22,904\n23,560\n24,780\n23,778\n25,490\n27,172\n28,395\n\n\nGrowth %\n2.6%\n6.8%\n2.9%\n5.2%\n-4.0%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail E-commerce Sales ('b')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPenetration Rate ('c')\n9%\n10%\n12%\n14%\n18%\n19%\n20%\n22%\n\n\nGrowth %\n16.2%\n20.9%\n17.3%\n11.5%\n32.4%\n2.8%\n8.1%\n10.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Revenues ('d')\n91.43\n108.35\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n18.5%\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Online Stores Market Share ('e')\n5.0%\n4.5%\n4.1%\n4.2%\n4.6%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n4.5%\n\n\n\n* B = A x C\n*D = B x E\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThe Rise of Third-party Seller Services\nAnother major advantage of the company is its logistics and shipping operations, which has become an impenetrable moat that few other companies will ever have the resources or ability to match, with Amazon partnering with most major delivery providers in the country. By leveraging its robust network, it offers programs to enable sellers to sell their products through its marketplace and fulfill orders through the company.\nWith Fulfillment by Amazon ('FBA'), third party sellersstore products in Amazon's fulfillment centers, and it picks, packs, ships, and provide customer service for these products. Amazon is not the seller but earns commissions and related fulfillment and shipping fees including inventory management, payment processing, shipment tracking and reporting from the arrangements from its third-party sellers who are largely comprised of small- and medium-sized businesses.\nSelling on Amazon as a third-party seller is an increasingly popular option for sellers. It ultimately provides more flexibility and control, a stronger brand presence, and better data access. Over the past years, the rise of third-party sellers on Amazon is seen with the rising share of third-party sales as a % of its gross merchandise sales at 62% of total sales.\nSource: FourWeekMBA\nThe chart below further illustrates Amazon's large network of logistics and shipping. Its fulfillment center network is one of several ways it enhances its logistics and shipping process taking on FedEx and UPS and has been ramping up efforts to launch its delivery network as well with growing fleets of airplanes, drones and vans. Amazon's own logistics business delivered 1.9 bln packages in the US.\nSource: WebFX\nMoreover, its wide logistics and shipping coverage with over 100 active warehouses across the US with the highest number of facilities in California, Texas and New Jersey. Additionally, it is expanding heavily in the south with the highest number of planned warehouses. For example, the upcoming opening of a 1 million-square-foot fulfillmentcenter in Missouri in 2021 where employees will pack and ship larger-sized customer items like patio furniture, outdoor equipment or rugs. In 2020, it announced plans for 7 new fulfillmentcenters including a 600,000-square-foot facility in Florida, an 855,000-square foot facility in Tennessee and a 625,000square-foot fulfillment center in Texas.\nSource: CNBC\nOverall, these are among the factors which lead to the company's strength from its wide logistics network in terms of shipping speed. The company is highly popular for its speedy shipping and even has free Two-Day and even Same Day Shipping Programs for Prime members. Based on the survey below, the majority or 80% cited fast and free shipping as the major reason for choosing Amazon. We believe that the company's planned expansion would continue to enhance its logistics network and maintain its popularity among customers.\nSource: Statista\nWe forecasted the company's retail third-party seller services revenues which consist of fulfillment service-related revenues derived from the sales from third-party sellers. Amazon's third-party gross merchandise sales are forecasted to increase its share of total retail e-commerce sales as a growth rate of 9% based on the past 5-year average with the rising popularity of third-party sales on its marketplace. Moreover, we also forecasted the share of revenues that Amazon earns to grow by 1% from 27.3% based on the 2-year average as Amazon continues to expand its fulfillment capabilities to cater to its third-party sellers. This trend is also believed to be significant for margin expansion of the company as gross margins third-party seller services isestimatedto be between 60% to 75% of sales which is lower than AWS at 80% but still higher than the company's overall gross margin of 37% due to high costs tied up with the cost of sales which represents 60% of its total sales.\n\n\n\nThird-Party Seller Services Revenues ($ bln)\n2016\n2017\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nGlobal Retail E-commerce Sales ('a')\n1,845\n2,382\n2,982\n3,354\n4,280\n4,716\n5,434\n6,247\n\n\nGrowth %\n19.2%\n29.1%\n25.2%\n12.5%\n27.6%\n10.2%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nAmazon Third Party Market Share ('b')\n5.6%\n5.5%\n5.4%\n6.0%\n6.9%\n7.5%\n8.1%\n8.9%\n\n\nGrowth %\n21%\n-2%\n-2%\n11%\n16%\n9%\n9%\n9%\n\n\nThird-party (Amazon marketplace) GMV ('c')\n103\n130\n160\n200\n295\n353\n443\n553\n\n\nGrowth %\n26.2%\n23.1%\n25.0%\n47.5%\n19.8%\n25.3%\n25.0%\n\n\n% Of Revenues ('d')\n22.3%\n24.5%\n26.7%\n26.9%\n27.3%\n27.6%\n27.8%\n28.1%\n\n\nGrowth %\n9.9%\n9.0%\n0.6%\n1.5%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n1.0%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services revenues ('e')\n22.99\n31.88\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n38.7%\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\n\n*C = A x B\n*E = C x D\nSource: Amazon, Statista, Khaveen Investments\nAWS Growth by Data Volume Growth\nAnother key area of growth of the company is cloud computing with notable largeclientssuch as Netflix (NFLX), Verizon (VZ), Capital One (COF), McDonald's (MCD). AWS revenues grew strongly at 29.5% in 2020 with a market share of 31.8% of the cloud infrastructuremarket. Since its launch nearly 2 decades ago, it has grown to become the market leader for years and looks set to maintain the status quo for the foreseeable future despite rising competition especially from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google gaining market share outpacing Amazon's growth.\nThe rapid growth of the cloud infrastructure market is underpinned by the rising volume of global data volume creation at aCAGRof 23% until 2025 as data volume is projected to grow to more than 180 zettabytes as the world becomes more data-driven with the rise of data analytics, 5G and IoT spurring the growth of data creation.\nSource: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nWe projected the growth of the cloud infrastructure market based on the forecasted growth of data volume at a 23% CAGR through 2025 at an average cloud infrastructure/data growth factor of 1.72.\n* A = B x C Source: Statista, Khaveen Investments\nThus, despite the plateauing market share of AWS as competitors like Microsoft outpaces its growth, we still believe in the massive opportunity in the cloud infrastructure market with the growing data volumes. Not to mention, the company has highlighted its commitment towards AWS with new client relationships such as major sports leagues around the world including National Hockey League, the PGA Tour, Formula 1 and the German Bundesliga. Furthermore, it also recently announced a relationship with Dish Network to build out cloud-based 5G infrastructure and would expand its data center footprint in Israel and the United Arab Emirates. It currently offers 80 availability zones across 25 geographic regions and plans to launch 15 more availability zones to support its cloud growth.\nSource: Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nAll in all, we projected AWS's revenue growth based on our market share forecast assumptions that its market share leadership is slowly chipped away by fast-growing competitors notably Microsoft but still maintaining its market leadership backed by solid large client relationship leveraging AWS. Based on a forecasted market share of 30.7% by 2023, we expect AWS revenues to grow to $81.5 bln.\n\n\n\nAWS Forecasts\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nAWS Market Share\n32.6%\n32.3%\n31.8%\n31.2%\n31.0%\n30.7%\n\n\nAWS Revenues ($ bln)\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Canalys, Khaveen Investments\nWhile AWS only makes up 11% of its total revenues, its superior margins of 29% compared to only 2.8% for the other company segments has AWS accounting for 59% of operating income in 2020 which highlights the significance of AWS to its bottom line.\nSource: Amazon\nAntimonopoly and Data Privacy Fine Risk\nAmazon has been involved in allegations of the company's approach to unfairly attain data and information from third-party sellers, stated by the Democrats' report with the company's e-commerce market share around 40% in the US. With the reliance of sellers on Amazon's sales channel, Amazon can charge sellers exceptional fees and further penalizing sellers for lowering their prices on other sites. Also, a bipartisan group of House lawmakers is pushing big tech including Amazon for anoverhaulof their business practices under an expansive set of antitrust reforms that would make it harder for dominant platforms to complete mergers and prohibit them from owning businesses that present clear conflicts of interest.\nWhereas in the European Union, Amazon has been hit with the largest GDPR fine to date. The EU is moving beyond data breaches and zeroing in on data practices. Amazon faced a $888 million fine from violating the bloc's data protection rules. Amazon has been accused to violate the EU's General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR). GDPR allows forfinesof up to 4% of Amazon's revenue, which the released number indicated around 4.2% of Amazon's $21.3 billion income in 2020.\nValuation\nThe company has had average revenue growth of 29.4% in the past 5 years with an average gross and net margin of 38.6% and 3.5% respectively. The strength of the company is its rising margins as its net margins have risen due to the superior growth of its cloud segment which commands higher margins. The AWS segment has a high operating margin of 29.6% versus 2.8% for the remaining business segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nMore importantly, the company has decent and imposing cash-generating abilities with an average FCF margin of 3.01% in the past 5 years. In 2017, its FCF margin dipped due to the acquisition of Whole Foods for $13.7 bln. The strength of its cash flows is the rising margins as its AWS business which is more profitable exhibits a higher growth than other segments.\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nThe company's balance sheet strength is its strong ability to meet its debt obligations. It has a net debt of $113 bln in 2020 with an EBITDA/interest coverage ratio of 44x in 2020. Its ratio has steadily increased in the past 5 years from 32x as it grew its profitability with the superior growth of AWS.\nTo value Amazon, we used a DCF valuation as the company has had positive free cash flows in the past. We got an industry average EV/EBITDA of 27.64x based on comparable companies as shown in the table below.\n\n\n\nCompany\nEV/EBITDA\n\n\nAmazon\n28.57x\n\n\nAlibaba (BABA)\n21.14x\n\n\nMicrosoft\n25.89x\n\n\nGoogle\n22.46x\n\n\nAverage\n24.52x\n\n\n\nSource: SeekingAlpha\nThe revenue growth projections aresummarized below based on the revenue breakdown by its online stores, physical stores, retail third party seller services, subscription services, AWS and others. The online store projections are derived from its market share assumption on the forecasted growth of the e-commerce market while physical store sales are based on the retail sales growth rate forecast of 7.2% in 2021. Retail third-party seller services are derived from its share of third-party seller GMV of the total e-commerce market and an assumption of a % cut it earns as revenues from commissions and related fees. The AWS revenues are projected from the cloud market growth based on the rising data volumes forecasts. Other segments are based on its average 3-year growth rates. Beyond 2023, we tapered down our growth forecasts with a weighted CAGR of 14.2% of the e-commerce and cloud computing market through 2027 and tapering down from 12.3% in 2027 with an annual decrease of 2% per year until 2030 as we expect the e-commerce market to become more mature.\n\n\n\nAmazon Revenue Projections ($ bln)\n2018\n2019\n2020\n2021F\n2022F\n2023F\n\n\nOnline stores\n122.99\n141.25\n197.35\n211.74\n244.02\n280.50\n\n\nGrowth %\n13.5%\n14.8%\n39.7%\n7.3%\n15.2%\n15.0%\n\n\nPhysical stores\n17.22\n17.19\n16.23\n17.40\n18.55\n19.38\n\n\nGrowth %\n196.9%\n-0.2%\n-5.6%\n7.20%\n6.60%\n4.50%\n\n\nRetail third-party seller services\n42.75\n53.76\n80.46\n97.37\n123.25\n155.61\n\n\nGrowth %\n34.1%\n25.8%\n49.7%\n21.0%\n26.6%\n26.3%\n\n\nSubscription services\n14.17\n19.21\n25.21\n34.67\n47.68\n65.58\n\n\nGrowth %\n45.8%\n35.6%\n31.2%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n37.5%\n\n\nAWS\n25.66\n35.03\n45.37\n54.58\n66.81\n81.52\n\n\nGrowth %\n47.0%\n36.5%\n29.5%\n20.3%\n22.4%\n22.0%\n\n\nOther\n10.11\n14.09\n21.45\n31.27\n45.60\n66.48\n\n\nGrowth %\n117.4%\n39.4%\n52.2%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n45.8%\n\n\nTotal\n232.9\n280.53\n386.07\n447.0\n545.9\n669.1\n\n\nTotal Growth %\n30.9%\n20.5%\n37.6%\n15.8%\n22.1%\n22.6%\n\n\n\nSource: Amazon, Khaveen Investments\nBased on a discount rate of 12.7% (company's WACC), our model shows an upside of 36.9%.\nSource: Khaveen Investments\nVerdict\nIn conclusion, weanalyzed the company's key growth drivers namely the online retail, third-party seller services and AWS. While the accelerated growth eventually winds down, its growth outlook remains highly attractive as an established and dominant market leader in e-commerce. The share of e-commerce sales as a % of total retail sales is forecasted to keep marching higher with the shift of consumers buyingbehavior towards e-commerce with a forecasted rate of 22% by 2023. The company's Prime member provides it with a loyal customer base roughly half of the US population. Moreover, another key strength is its vast logistics and shipping network and Amazon FBA seeing the continued rise of third-party sellers on its online marketplace. Finally, AWS remains the clear market leader in the foreseeable future with close relationships with large corporate clients and continuous commitment by management to cater to the growing infrastructure needs of the segment. Thus, despite the expected normalizing growth in 2021, we believe that its outlook continued to be buoyed by the rising e-commerce and cloud computing market and revised our growth rate projections to 15.8% in 2021 followed by 22% in 2020. Overall, we rate the stock as aBuywith a price target of$4,363.96.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817007855,"gmtCreate":1630888852577,"gmtModify":1631890188946,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Beware","listText":"Beware","text":"Beware","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817007855","repostId":"1168498795","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168498795","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630655991,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168498795?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 15:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Speak No Evil of the S&P 500’s Neverending Records<blockquote>不要说标普500永无止境的记录的坏话</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168498795","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the ch","content":"<p>  <b>Investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the chunky returns of the past decade.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6573eb955692f754acc1285622febd53\" tg-width=\"878\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The S&amp;P 500 is like the three wise monkeys: See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.Whatever happens, it just goes up. The market has gone up almost in a straight line since November despite a troubling list of events that could each have justified at least a 5% correction. Investors are incredibly resilient.</p><p><blockquote><b>无论如何购买股票的投资者都不应该自欺欺人地认为未来将带来过去十年的丰厚回报。</b>标普500就像三只聪明的猴子：不看邪恶，不听邪恶，不说邪恶。无论发生什么，它都会上升。自11月以来，市场几乎直线上涨，尽管发生了一系列令人不安的事件，每个事件都可能证明至少5%的回调是合理的。投资者的韧性令人难以置信。</blockquote></p><p> Some things that didn’t matter:a burst bubble in clean-energy stocks;a sharp rise in Treasury yields(to March);a big fall in Treasury yields(since March); China’s crackdown on moneymaking; the Federal Reserve’sshift toward tapering bond purchases; and the rise of the Delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>一些无关紧要的事情：清洁能源股票泡沫破裂；国债收益率大幅上升（至3月）；国债收益率大幅下跌（自3月以来）；我国关于赚钱的打压；美联储转向缩减债券购买；以及德尔塔变异毒株的崛起。</blockquote></p><p> On the optimistic side, it is great that the market has been pushed up by a variety of forces, not by wild excess in a single area. We need not worry that the bubble in clean energy will burst and bring down the market, because it has already burst without bringing down the market.</p><p><blockquote>乐观的一面是，市场被多种力量推高，而不是单一地区的疯狂过剩，这很好。我们不必担心清洁能源的泡沫会破裂，拖垮市场，因为它已经破裂了，没有拖垮市场。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout all this, the stock market has risen steadily,without a 5% fall since shortly before the election last year. Every time part of the market—technology stocks, cheap stocks, smaller stocks, oil stocks, strong-balance-sheet stocks—stops performing, something else steps in to rescue the broader index. The market seems invulnerable to bad news, and that is unusual. On the face of it, it is also scary, suggesting investors are complacent about danger.</p><p><blockquote>纵观这一切，股市稳步上涨，自去年大选前不久以来没有出现过5%的下跌。每当市场的一部分——科技股、廉价股、小型股、石油股、资产负债表强劲的股票——停止表现时，就会有其他东西介入拯救更广泛的指数。市场似乎不会受到坏消息的影响，这是不寻常的。从表面上看，这也很可怕，表明投资者对危险沾沾自喜。</blockquote></p><p> It is far from unprecedented to go a long time without a correction, with 10 episodes since 1963 when the market lasted more than 200 trading days without a 5% drop. But they were different from the recent run. In every other case, the market was far calmer below the surface. This time, major events led to big swings between sectors, size and types of stock, but none disturbed its steady rise.</p><p><blockquote>长时间没有回调的情况远非史无前例，自1963年以来，市场持续200多个交易日没有下跌5%以来，已经出现了10次。但它们与最近的运行不同。在其他情况下，市场在表面之下要平静得多。这一次，重大事件导致板块、规模和股票类型之间的大幅波动，但都没有干扰其稳步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, the stimulus- and vaccine-driven willingness to take risk across every asset class faded from March onward, so we shouldn’t be too concerned about a switch in investor sentiment. Again, it has already happened.</p><p><blockquote>同样，从3月份开始，刺激和疫苗驱动的所有资产类别的冒险意愿都减弱了，因此我们不应该太担心投资者情绪的转变。再说一次，这已经发生了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d8b995934c7f60fadb5834dd078e232\" tg-width=\"320\" tg-height=\"412\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Yet,I find it disconcerting that the market seems to go up no matter what. Good news on the economy pushes up stocks sensitive to growth, such as manufacturers and banks. Troubling news on the economy means lower bond yields and so pushes up stocks with profits far in the future (see: Big Tech) whose expansion depends on innovation rather than economic growth, which I understand. That both should push up the wider S&amp;P 500 is what puzzles me.</p><p><blockquote>然而，令我不安的是，无论如何，市场似乎都在上涨。经济方面的好消息推高了对增长敏感的股票，如制造商和银行。令人不安的经济消息意味着债券收益率下降，从而推高未来盈利的股票（见：大型科技公司），这些股票的扩张依赖于创新而不是经济增长，我理解这一点。两者都应该推高更广泛的标普500，这让我感到困惑。</blockquote></p><p> The only explanation I have is the old one: “TINA”—There Is No Alternative to Stocks—because yields on alternatives such as bonds are so low. With more savings going into stocks than is cashed out or soaked up by IPOs, the price has to rise. It isn’t a satisfactory story, but it kind of works.</p><p><blockquote>我唯一的解释是旧的：“蒂娜”——除了股票别无选择——因为债券等替代品的收益率太低了。由于进入股票的储蓄多于套现或被IPO吸收的储蓄，价格必须上涨。这不是一个令人满意的故事，但它有点工作。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37942e27b25662943d254580733d2954\" tg-width=\"325\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In both good and bad times investors want to buy stocks, so the S&amp;P goes up. But<i>which</i>stocks they choose to buy differs between good and bad times. In good times they want risk-on stocks (cheap value, cyclicals, smaller companies, emerging markets). In bad times they want risk-off stocks (growth, defensive firms, larger companies, developed markets and especially the U.S.).</p><p><blockquote>无论顺境还是逆境，投资者都想购买股票，因此标准普尔指数都会上涨。但<i>哪个</i>他们选择购买的股票在顺境和逆境之间有所不同。在繁荣时期，他们想要冒险的股票（便宜的价值、周期性股票、小公司、新兴市场）。在经济不景气时，他们想要避险股票（成长型、防御型公司、大型公司、发达市场，尤其是美国）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem with TINA is that the justification for stocks isn’t that they offer good returns in the future, but that they offer better returns than bonds. Bonds offer miserable returns—a guaranteed loss after inflation for 30 years on Treasury inflation-protected securities—so doing better than that isn’t saying much. If lower rewards came with lower risks, that would be fine, but at best the risks are as high as ever, perhaps much higher.</p><p><blockquote>蒂娜的问题在于，股票的理由不是它们在未来提供良好的回报，而是它们提供比债券更好的回报。债券的回报率很低——通胀保值国债30年通胀后肯定会出现亏损——所以做得更好并不能说明什么。如果较低的回报伴随着较低的风险，那很好，但充其量风险和以往一样高，甚至可能高得多。</blockquote></p><p> A simplistic way to quantify how much lower the rewards of stocks are likely to be is to use the earnings yield, the inverse of the forward price/earnings ratio. If companies match analyst profit forecasts, future returns should be about 4%—only slightly higher than was suggested by the measure at the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000. If corporate earnings miss forecasts, future returns could be substantially lower. If valuations fall too, returns are doubly hit, as they were after the dot-com bubble burst, when returns ended up negative for years.</p><p><blockquote>量化股票回报可能低多少的一个简单方法是使用收益率，即远期市盈率的倒数。如果公司符合分析师的利润预测，未来的回报率应该在4%左右——仅略高于2000年互联网泡沫最严重时的指标。如果企业盈利低于预期，未来的回报可能会大幅降低。如果估值也下跌，回报就会受到双重打击，就像互联网泡沫破裂后那样，当时回报多年来一直为负。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quantifying risks is much harder. Inflation risk is higher than before, and so are political (tax and regulation) and geopolitical (trade and supply chain) threats to stocks. The risk that analysts have horribly overestimated earnings or companies are massively overstating earnings is at least as high as usual. Central banks are sure to try to help if stocks plunge, but can’t use the traditional support of rate cuts. Alternative tools such as negative rates and buying a wider range of assets are available, but their risks are less well understood.</p><p><blockquote>量化风险要困难得多。通胀风险比以前更高，对股市的政治（税收和监管）和地缘政治（贸易和供应链）威胁也是如此。分析师严重高估收益或公司大幅夸大收益的风险至少和往常一样高。如果股市暴跌，央行肯定会尽力提供帮助，但不能使用降息的传统支持。负利率和购买更广泛的资产等替代工具是可用的，但其风险却不太为人所知。</blockquote></p><p> Getting a lower reward for the same or higher risk may still be acceptable, given how expensive the safer alternatives are. But investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the 6.5% or so above inflation of the past century, let alone the 12% above inflation of the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到更安全的替代品的昂贵程度，以相同或更高的风险获得较低的回报可能仍然是可以接受的。但无论如何购买股票的投资者都不应该自欺欺人地认为，未来的通胀率将比上个世纪高出6.5%左右，更不用说比过去十年的通胀率高出12%了。</blockquote></p><p> The awful choice investors have is to join the monkeys in pretending all is well, or accept the terrible returns of safe assets.</p><p><blockquote>投资者面临的可怕选择是加入猴子的行列，假装一切都很好，或者接受安全资产的可怕回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Speak No Evil of the S&P 500’s Neverending Records<blockquote>不要说标普500永无止境的记录的坏话</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpeak No Evil of the S&P 500’s Neverending Records<blockquote>不要说标普500永无止境的记录的坏话</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 15:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the chunky returns of the past decade.</b>  <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6573eb955692f754acc1285622febd53\" tg-width=\"878\" tg-height=\"520\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">The S&amp;P 500 is like the three wise monkeys: See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.Whatever happens, it just goes up. The market has gone up almost in a straight line since November despite a troubling list of events that could each have justified at least a 5% correction. Investors are incredibly resilient.</p><p><blockquote><b>无论如何购买股票的投资者都不应该自欺欺人地认为未来将带来过去十年的丰厚回报。</b>标普500就像三只聪明的猴子：不看邪恶，不听邪恶，不说邪恶。无论发生什么，它都会上升。自11月以来，市场几乎直线上涨，尽管发生了一系列令人不安的事件，每个事件都可能证明至少5%的回调是合理的。投资者的韧性令人难以置信。</blockquote></p><p> Some things that didn’t matter:a burst bubble in clean-energy stocks;a sharp rise in Treasury yields(to March);a big fall in Treasury yields(since March); China’s crackdown on moneymaking; the Federal Reserve’sshift toward tapering bond purchases; and the rise of the Delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>一些无关紧要的事情：清洁能源股票泡沫破裂；国债收益率大幅上升（至3月）；国债收益率大幅下跌（自3月以来）；我国关于赚钱的打压；美联储转向缩减债券购买；以及德尔塔变异毒株的崛起。</blockquote></p><p> On the optimistic side, it is great that the market has been pushed up by a variety of forces, not by wild excess in a single area. We need not worry that the bubble in clean energy will burst and bring down the market, because it has already burst without bringing down the market.</p><p><blockquote>乐观的一面是，市场被多种力量推高，而不是单一地区的疯狂过剩，这很好。我们不必担心清洁能源的泡沫会破裂，拖垮市场，因为它已经破裂了，没有拖垮市场。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout all this, the stock market has risen steadily,without a 5% fall since shortly before the election last year. Every time part of the market—technology stocks, cheap stocks, smaller stocks, oil stocks, strong-balance-sheet stocks—stops performing, something else steps in to rescue the broader index. The market seems invulnerable to bad news, and that is unusual. On the face of it, it is also scary, suggesting investors are complacent about danger.</p><p><blockquote>纵观这一切，股市稳步上涨，自去年大选前不久以来没有出现过5%的下跌。每当市场的一部分——科技股、廉价股、小型股、石油股、资产负债表强劲的股票——停止表现时，就会有其他东西介入拯救更广泛的指数。市场似乎不会受到坏消息的影响，这是不寻常的。从表面上看，这也很可怕，表明投资者对危险沾沾自喜。</blockquote></p><p> It is far from unprecedented to go a long time without a correction, with 10 episodes since 1963 when the market lasted more than 200 trading days without a 5% drop. But they were different from the recent run. In every other case, the market was far calmer below the surface. This time, major events led to big swings between sectors, size and types of stock, but none disturbed its steady rise.</p><p><blockquote>长时间没有回调的情况远非史无前例，自1963年以来，市场持续200多个交易日没有下跌5%以来，已经出现了10次。但它们与最近的运行不同。在其他情况下，市场在表面之下要平静得多。这一次，重大事件导致板块、规模和股票类型之间的大幅波动，但都没有干扰其稳步上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, the stimulus- and vaccine-driven willingness to take risk across every asset class faded from March onward, so we shouldn’t be too concerned about a switch in investor sentiment. Again, it has already happened.</p><p><blockquote>同样，从3月份开始，刺激和疫苗驱动的所有资产类别的冒险意愿都减弱了，因此我们不应该太担心投资者情绪的转变。再说一次，这已经发生了。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d8b995934c7f60fadb5834dd078e232\" tg-width=\"320\" tg-height=\"412\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Yet,I find it disconcerting that the market seems to go up no matter what. Good news on the economy pushes up stocks sensitive to growth, such as manufacturers and banks. Troubling news on the economy means lower bond yields and so pushes up stocks with profits far in the future (see: Big Tech) whose expansion depends on innovation rather than economic growth, which I understand. That both should push up the wider S&amp;P 500 is what puzzles me.</p><p><blockquote>然而，令我不安的是，无论如何，市场似乎都在上涨。经济方面的好消息推高了对增长敏感的股票，如制造商和银行。令人不安的经济消息意味着债券收益率下降，从而推高未来盈利的股票（见：大型科技公司），这些股票的扩张依赖于创新而不是经济增长，我理解这一点。两者都应该推高更广泛的标普500，这让我感到困惑。</blockquote></p><p> The only explanation I have is the old one: “TINA”—There Is No Alternative to Stocks—because yields on alternatives such as bonds are so low. With more savings going into stocks than is cashed out or soaked up by IPOs, the price has to rise. It isn’t a satisfactory story, but it kind of works.</p><p><blockquote>我唯一的解释是旧的：“蒂娜”——除了股票别无选择——因为债券等替代品的收益率太低了。由于进入股票的储蓄多于套现或被IPO吸收的储蓄，价格必须上涨。这不是一个令人满意的故事，但它有点工作。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37942e27b25662943d254580733d2954\" tg-width=\"325\" tg-height=\"413\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">In both good and bad times investors want to buy stocks, so the S&amp;P goes up. But<i>which</i>stocks they choose to buy differs between good and bad times. In good times they want risk-on stocks (cheap value, cyclicals, smaller companies, emerging markets). In bad times they want risk-off stocks (growth, defensive firms, larger companies, developed markets and especially the U.S.).</p><p><blockquote>无论顺境还是逆境，投资者都想购买股票，因此标准普尔指数都会上涨。但<i>哪个</i>他们选择购买的股票在顺境和逆境之间有所不同。在繁荣时期，他们想要冒险的股票（便宜的价值、周期性股票、小公司、新兴市场）。在经济不景气时，他们想要避险股票（成长型、防御型公司、大型公司、发达市场，尤其是美国）。</blockquote></p><p> The problem with TINA is that the justification for stocks isn’t that they offer good returns in the future, but that they offer better returns than bonds. Bonds offer miserable returns—a guaranteed loss after inflation for 30 years on Treasury inflation-protected securities—so doing better than that isn’t saying much. If lower rewards came with lower risks, that would be fine, but at best the risks are as high as ever, perhaps much higher.</p><p><blockquote>蒂娜的问题在于，股票的理由不是它们在未来提供良好的回报，而是它们提供比债券更好的回报。债券的回报率很低——通胀保值国债30年通胀后肯定会出现亏损——所以做得更好并不能说明什么。如果较低的回报伴随着较低的风险，那很好，但充其量风险和以往一样高，甚至可能高得多。</blockquote></p><p> A simplistic way to quantify how much lower the rewards of stocks are likely to be is to use the earnings yield, the inverse of the forward price/earnings ratio. If companies match analyst profit forecasts, future returns should be about 4%—only slightly higher than was suggested by the measure at the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000. If corporate earnings miss forecasts, future returns could be substantially lower. If valuations fall too, returns are doubly hit, as they were after the dot-com bubble burst, when returns ended up negative for years.</p><p><blockquote>量化股票回报可能低多少的一个简单方法是使用收益率，即远期市盈率的倒数。如果公司符合分析师的利润预测，未来的回报率应该在4%左右——仅略高于2000年互联网泡沫最严重时的指标。如果企业盈利低于预期，未来的回报可能会大幅降低。如果估值也下跌，回报就会受到双重打击，就像互联网泡沫破裂后那样，当时回报多年来一直为负。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Quantifying risks is much harder. Inflation risk is higher than before, and so are political (tax and regulation) and geopolitical (trade and supply chain) threats to stocks. The risk that analysts have horribly overestimated earnings or companies are massively overstating earnings is at least as high as usual. Central banks are sure to try to help if stocks plunge, but can’t use the traditional support of rate cuts. Alternative tools such as negative rates and buying a wider range of assets are available, but their risks are less well understood.</p><p><blockquote>量化风险要困难得多。通胀风险比以前更高，对股市的政治（税收和监管）和地缘政治（贸易和供应链）威胁也是如此。分析师严重高估收益或公司大幅夸大收益的风险至少和往常一样高。如果股市暴跌，央行肯定会尽力提供帮助，但不能使用降息的传统支持。负利率和购买更广泛的资产等替代工具是可用的，但其风险却不太为人所知。</blockquote></p><p> Getting a lower reward for the same or higher risk may still be acceptable, given how expensive the safer alternatives are. But investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the 6.5% or so above inflation of the past century, let alone the 12% above inflation of the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到更安全的替代品的昂贵程度，以相同或更高的风险获得较低的回报可能仍然是可以接受的。但无论如何购买股票的投资者都不应该自欺欺人地认为，未来的通胀率将比上个世纪高出6.5%左右，更不用说比过去十年的通胀率高出12%了。</blockquote></p><p> The awful choice investors have is to join the monkeys in pretending all is well, or accept the terrible returns of safe assets.</p><p><blockquote>投资者面临的可怕选择是加入猴子的行列，假装一切都很好，或者接受安全资产的可怕回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/speak-no-evil-of-the-s-p-500s-neverending-records-11630590653?mod=markets_lead_pos5\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/speak-no-evil-of-the-s-p-500s-neverending-records-11630590653?mod=markets_lead_pos5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168498795","content_text":"Investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the chunky returns of the past decade.\n\nThe S&P 500 is like the three wise monkeys: See no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil.Whatever happens, it just goes up. The market has gone up almost in a straight line since November despite a troubling list of events that could each have justified at least a 5% correction. Investors are incredibly resilient.\nSome things that didn’t matter:a burst bubble in clean-energy stocks;a sharp rise in Treasury yields(to March);a big fall in Treasury yields(since March); China’s crackdown on moneymaking; the Federal Reserve’sshift toward tapering bond purchases; and the rise of the Delta variant.\nOn the optimistic side, it is great that the market has been pushed up by a variety of forces, not by wild excess in a single area. We need not worry that the bubble in clean energy will burst and bring down the market, because it has already burst without bringing down the market.\nThroughout all this, the stock market has risen steadily,without a 5% fall since shortly before the election last year. Every time part of the market—technology stocks, cheap stocks, smaller stocks, oil stocks, strong-balance-sheet stocks—stops performing, something else steps in to rescue the broader index. The market seems invulnerable to bad news, and that is unusual. On the face of it, it is also scary, suggesting investors are complacent about danger.\nIt is far from unprecedented to go a long time without a correction, with 10 episodes since 1963 when the market lasted more than 200 trading days without a 5% drop. But they were different from the recent run. In every other case, the market was far calmer below the surface. This time, major events led to big swings between sectors, size and types of stock, but none disturbed its steady rise.\nSimilarly, the stimulus- and vaccine-driven willingness to take risk across every asset class faded from March onward, so we shouldn’t be too concerned about a switch in investor sentiment. Again, it has already happened.\nYet,I find it disconcerting that the market seems to go up no matter what. Good news on the economy pushes up stocks sensitive to growth, such as manufacturers and banks. Troubling news on the economy means lower bond yields and so pushes up stocks with profits far in the future (see: Big Tech) whose expansion depends on innovation rather than economic growth, which I understand. That both should push up the wider S&P 500 is what puzzles me.\nThe only explanation I have is the old one: “TINA”—There Is No Alternative to Stocks—because yields on alternatives such as bonds are so low. With more savings going into stocks than is cashed out or soaked up by IPOs, the price has to rise. It isn’t a satisfactory story, but it kind of works.\nIn both good and bad times investors want to buy stocks, so the S&P goes up. Butwhichstocks they choose to buy differs between good and bad times. In good times they want risk-on stocks (cheap value, cyclicals, smaller companies, emerging markets). In bad times they want risk-off stocks (growth, defensive firms, larger companies, developed markets and especially the U.S.).\nThe problem with TINA is that the justification for stocks isn’t that they offer good returns in the future, but that they offer better returns than bonds. Bonds offer miserable returns—a guaranteed loss after inflation for 30 years on Treasury inflation-protected securities—so doing better than that isn’t saying much. If lower rewards came with lower risks, that would be fine, but at best the risks are as high as ever, perhaps much higher.\nA simplistic way to quantify how much lower the rewards of stocks are likely to be is to use the earnings yield, the inverse of the forward price/earnings ratio. If companies match analyst profit forecasts, future returns should be about 4%—only slightly higher than was suggested by the measure at the height of the dot-com bubble in 2000. If corporate earnings miss forecasts, future returns could be substantially lower. If valuations fall too, returns are doubly hit, as they were after the dot-com bubble burst, when returns ended up negative for years.\nQuantifying risks is much harder. Inflation risk is higher than before, and so are political (tax and regulation) and geopolitical (trade and supply chain) threats to stocks. The risk that analysts have horribly overestimated earnings or companies are massively overstating earnings is at least as high as usual. Central banks are sure to try to help if stocks plunge, but can’t use the traditional support of rate cuts. Alternative tools such as negative rates and buying a wider range of assets are available, but their risks are less well understood.\nGetting a lower reward for the same or higher risk may still be acceptable, given how expensive the safer alternatives are. But investors buying stocks no matter what shouldn’t fool themselves that the future will deliver the 6.5% or so above inflation of the past century, let alone the 12% above inflation of the past decade.\nThe awful choice investors have is to join the monkeys in pretending all is well, or accept the terrible returns of safe assets.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816925610,"gmtCreate":1630461754530,"gmtModify":1631892680420,"author":{"id":"4092303713529060","authorId":"4092303713529060","name":"nonewiser","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fd9b04eb54f9084061713adead32828","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4092303713529060","idStr":"4092303713529060"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Is this a good time to go in?","listText":"Is this a good time to go in?","text":"Is this a good time to go in?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816925610","repostId":"1140744418","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}