PhilipChow的个人主页 - 老虎社区

PhilipChow

PhilipChow

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11粉丝

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0勋章

2021-10-06

Luckily I sell off yesterday

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-01

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$What you think about the upcoming QR result?

2021-09-05

Good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-02

$Grab Holdings(GRAB)$好多人关注➕Grab

2021-10-29

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Does this platform still safe for it’s user investor?

2021-10-26

$SEA LTD(SE)$今晚会反弹吗？

2021-10-24

$Shopify(SHOP)$Will Apple new privacy policy affect Shopify?

2021-10-05

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$亏损到了9.9%

2021-11-11

$Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$今晚会反弹吗？

2021-10-26

$GitLab, Inc.(GTLB)$股价还会有成长空间吗？

2021-09-26

$Freshworks(FRSH)$Can Asana consider as Freshwork competitor?

2021-11-12

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Time to buy the dip? Haha

2021-11-10

$Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$Earn the most through this stock currently

2021-11-02

$Asana, Inc.(ASAN)$Will the next QR result continue to outshine? What you think about this work management tool? Is it useful for you and your team?

2021-10-31

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$元宇宙的主要受益者

2021-10-29

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$季度报告出炉前会继续攀新高吗？

2021-10-27

$GitLab, Inc.(GTLB)$Time to but the dip?

2021-10-26

//@小虎AV:Happy[love you][love you][love you][love you]$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-10-23

$GitLab, Inc.(GTLB)$目前最赚钱的一只股！

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it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872046256","repostId":"876081039","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":876081039,"gmtCreate":1637244434150,"gmtModify":1637275229206,"author":{"id":"3574982782498607","authorId":"3574982782498607","name":"WYCKOFFPRO","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6df9a333ebef85a0ceac10611fda7c0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574982782498607","authorIdStr":"3574982782498607"},"themes":[],"title":"Invest in Sea Limited (SE) with Greater Than 100% Upside Ahead?","htmlText":"\n \n \n  Find out the detailed analysis in&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$Sea Ltd(SE)$</a>&nbsp; and why SE could be a great candidate for investing or position trading with Point and Figure (P&amp;F) price target projection. 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Watch the video belowSafe trading.&nbsp;If you are day trading the US futures or swing trading for Malaysia and US stocks, do check out my&nbsp;YouTube Channel: Ming Jong Tey for additional videos and resources.&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">$小</a>","text":"Find out the detailed analysis in $Sea Ltd(SE)$ and why SE could be a great candidate for investing or position trading with Point and Figure (P&F) price target projection. This video is extracted from my Weekly Live session on 17 Oct 2021. Watch the video belowSafe trading. If you are day trading the US futures or swing trading for Malaysia and US stocks, do check out my YouTube Channel: Ming Jong Tey for additional videos and resources. $英伟达(NVDA)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $小","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f034a205fd9063191ddbffb67b4ce65","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876081039","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"34ff29240dac404ba6068ea5a85a2416","tweetId":"876081039","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/3e467bc5vodtranssgp1254107296/2ed5eed5387702291591162089/v.f30.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f034a205fd9063191ddbffb67b4ce65"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1512,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":876995535,"gmtCreate":1637247965141,"gmtModify":1637247997640,"author":{"id":"4092924086715630","authorId":"4092924086715630","name":"PhilipChow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b8d286edd52110b9dade4b1806f3ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092924086715630","authorIdStr":"4092924086715630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876995535","repostId":"878105193","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":878105193,"gmtCreate":1637156762908,"gmtModify":1637185871045,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667590215376","authorIdStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"B站和SEA能抄底吗？如何应对财报后股价反复震荡？","htmlText":"美股最好的季节来了，今年的收益率能不能达到新高就看这两个月了。 大家可以去翻一下纳指往年11月～2月的走势情况，相信老股民看到我上面这段话已经很有默契的点头了。原本以为马斯克会给股市降降温，但从这两天的行情来看，马总似乎没有继续砸盘的意思了。两国关系也随着对话顺利进行进一步缓和，目前没有看到宏观层面的威胁，所以任何一个回调都是比较好的上车机会。 当然涨不涨还是因标的而异，有些股票习惯年中涨，年末横盘，你也没有办法，对于这种情况可能sell&nbsp;put就是最万能的策略了。 今日卖put池： 标的代码 到期日 行权价 权利金 隐含波动率 年化收益% BILI 2021/11/26 70 0.34 93% 16%？ SE 2021/11/26 260 0.42 57% 5.6% 本周曾推荐 仅做跟踪记录 PDD 2021/11/26 80 0.78 84% —————— V 2021/11/26 200 0.34 30% 有风险 BABA 2021/11/26 144 0.32 58% —————— DIDI 2021/11/26 8 0.1 75% —————— TSLA 2021/11/19 850 0.32 102% —————— NIO 2021/11/26 36 0.22 61% —————— XPEV 2021/11/26 41 0.39 96% —————— NVDA 2021/11/26 260 0.96 62% —————— SNOW 2021/11/26 340 0.4 54% —————— <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a> 盘前财报，净亏损26.77亿元远超去年同期10.82亿，一度大跌9%，我曾一度大喜，开盘put可以卖个好价钱，不过股价又随","listText":"美股最好的季节来了，今年的收益率能不能达到新高就看这两个月了。 大家可以去翻一下纳指往年11月～2月的走势情况，相信老股民看到我上面这段话已经很有默契的点头了。原本以为马斯克会给股市降降温，但从这两天的行情来看，马总似乎没有继续砸盘的意思了。两国关系也随着对话顺利进行进一步缓和，目前没有看到宏观层面的威胁，所以任何一个回调都是比较好的上车机会。 当然涨不涨还是因标的而异，有些股票习惯年中涨，年末横盘，你也没有办法，对于这种情况可能sell&nbsp;put就是最万能的策略了。 今日卖put池： 标的代码 到期日 行权价 权利金 隐含波动率 年化收益% BILI 2021/11/26 70 0.34 93% 16%？ SE 2021/11/26 260 0.42 57% 5.6% 本周曾推荐 仅做跟踪记录 PDD 2021/11/26 80 0.78 84% —————— V 2021/11/26 200 0.34 30% 有风险 BABA 2021/11/26 144 0.32 58% —————— DIDI 2021/11/26 8 0.1 75% —————— TSLA 2021/11/19 850 0.32 102% —————— NIO 2021/11/26 36 0.22 61% —————— XPEV 2021/11/26 41 0.39 96% —————— NVDA 2021/11/26 260 0.96 62% —————— SNOW 2021/11/26 340 0.4 54% —————— <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a> 盘前财报，净亏损26.77亿元远超去年同期10.82亿，一度大跌9%，我曾一度大喜，开盘put可以卖个好价钱，不过股价又随","text":"美股最好的季节来了，今年的收益率能不能达到新高就看这两个月了。 大家可以去翻一下纳指往年11月～2月的走势情况，相信老股民看到我上面这段话已经很有默契的点头了。原本以为马斯克会给股市降降温，但从这两天的行情来看，马总似乎没有继续砸盘的意思了。两国关系也随着对话顺利进行进一步缓和，目前没有看到宏观层面的威胁，所以任何一个回调都是比较好的上车机会。 当然涨不涨还是因标的而异，有些股票习惯年中涨，年末横盘，你也没有办法，对于这种情况可能sell put就是最万能的策略了。 今日卖put池： 标的代码 到期日 行权价 权利金 隐含波动率 年化收益% BILI 2021/11/26 70 0.34 93% 16%？ SE 2021/11/26 260 0.42 57% 5.6% 本周曾推荐 仅做跟踪记录 PDD 2021/11/26 80 0.78 84% —————— V 2021/11/26 200 0.34 30% 有风险 BABA 2021/11/26 144 0.32 58% —————— DIDI 2021/11/26 8 0.1 75% —————— TSLA 2021/11/19 850 0.32 102% —————— NIO 2021/11/26 36 0.22 61% —————— XPEV 2021/11/26 41 0.39 96% —————— NVDA 2021/11/26 260 0.96 62% —————— SNOW 2021/11/26 340 0.4 54% —————— $哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 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450?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5401599a52aa994ff3fde0292355d2ff","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879159949","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1897,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879127768,"gmtCreate":1636693420818,"gmtModify":1636693421005,"author":{"id":"4092924086715630","authorId":"4092924086715630","name":"PhilipChow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b8d286edd52110b9dade4b1806f3ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092924086715630","authorIdStr":"4092924086715630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Time to buy the dip? Haha","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$</a>Time to buy the dip? Haha","text":"$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Time to buy the dip? Haha","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e4f7c55706c34f13ac36b5385b5bb8f","width":"1125","height":"2207"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879127768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1160,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870612744,"gmtCreate":1636610055307,"gmtModify":1636610055378,"author":{"id":"4092924086715630","authorId":"4092924086715630","name":"PhilipChow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b8d286edd52110b9dade4b1806f3ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092924086715630","authorIdStr":"4092924086715630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MDB\">$MongoDB Inc.(MDB)$</a>目前还在盈利当中","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MDB\">$MongoDB Inc.(MDB)$</a>目前还在盈利当中","text":"$MongoDB Inc.(MDB)$目前还在盈利当中","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a431e62877000bb4c2efdf2d2b543169","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870612744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870616071,"gmtCreate":1636609949092,"gmtModify":1636609949159,"author":{"id":"4092924086715630","authorId":"4092924086715630","name":"PhilipChow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b8d286edd52110b9dade4b1806f3ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092924086715630","authorIdStr":"4092924086715630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNDY\">$Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$</a>今晚会反弹吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNDY\">$Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$</a>今晚会反弹吗？","text":"$Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$今晚会反弹吗？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3acfa0c4c33cc54f7f33ac85e6de9b17","width":"1125","height":"2630"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870616071","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847294328,"gmtCreate":1636520813558,"gmtModify":1636520813778,"author":{"id":"4092924086715630","authorId":"4092924086715630","name":"PhilipChow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b8d286edd52110b9dade4b1806f3ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092924086715630","authorIdStr":"4092924086715630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNDY\">$Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$</a>Earn the most through this stock currently","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNDY\">$Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$</a>Earn the most through this stock currently","text":"$Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$Earn the most through this stock currently","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88a4e8eb56be878befaaf0563689acbd","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847294328","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847294096,"gmtCreate":1636520764419,"gmtModify":1636520807620,"author":{"id":"4092924086715630","authorId":"4092924086715630","name":"PhilipChow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b8d286edd52110b9dade4b1806f3ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092924086715630","authorIdStr":"4092924086715630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TEAM\">$Atlassian Corporation PLC(TEAM)$</a>Will it benefit from Monday and Asana QR result?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TEAM\">$Atlassian Corporation PLC(TEAM)$</a>Will it benefit from Monday and Asana QR result?","text":"$Atlassian Corporation PLC(TEAM)$Will it benefit from Monday and Asana QR result?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/992379e7327edd643582f4bf446f835f","width":"1125","height":"2551"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847294096","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844271713,"gmtCreate":1636435379923,"gmtModify":1636435380166,"author":{"id":"4092924086715630","authorId":"4092924086715630","name":"PhilipChow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b8d286edd52110b9dade4b1806f3ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092924086715630","authorIdStr":"4092924086715630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNDY\">$Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$</a>Waiting for a good QR result","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNDY\">$Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$</a>Waiting for a good QR result","text":"$Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$Waiting for a good QR result","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72460bf5876fe1ba998e2574e800672","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844271713","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845537486,"gmtCreate":1636349727106,"gmtModify":1636349727348,"author":{"id":"4092924086715630","authorId":"4092924086715630","name":"PhilipChow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b8d286edd52110b9dade4b1806f3ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092924086715630","authorIdStr":"4092924086715630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TEAM\">$Atlassian Corporation PLC(TEAM)$</a>Current 2nd largest holding","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TEAM\">$Atlassian Corporation PLC(TEAM)$</a>Current 2nd largest holding","text":"$Atlassian Corporation PLC(TEAM)$Current 2nd largest holding","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db5b68b0db23475223d4ca502f5cd983","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845537486","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845535083,"gmtCreate":1636349396090,"gmtModify":1636349396298,"author":{"id":"4092924086715630","authorId":"4092924086715630","name":"PhilipChow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b8d286edd52110b9dade4b1806f3ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092924086715630","authorIdStr":"4092924086715630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845535083","repostId":"1156505839","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156505839","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636344323,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156505839?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-08 12:05","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion: Wall Street will tell you that stocks shine in November but here’s the unvarnished truth","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156505839","media":"Market Wacth","summary":"November likely will be a good month for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.56%,which can be ex","content":"<p>November likely will be a good month for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.56%,which can be expected to gain 0.6%, or about 220 points.</p>\n<p>Such a gain would take the U.S. stock market bellwether to around the 36,040 level, versus the 35,820 level at which it finished the month of October. Were you hoping for more? After all, the Dow rose almost 6% in October.</p>\n<p>You shouldn’t be surprised. The Dow’s expected gain this month is the same as it is every other month of the calendar. There is no reason for November to be any better or worse than the historical average.</p>\n<p>It’s important to point this out to counter those on Wall Street who mine the historical data in search of “uncanny” seasonal patterns. The only real investment lesson we can learn from their efforts is that if you torture the data long and hard enough you can make it say almost anything.</p>\n<p>Consider the claims that the chief investment officer of a major Wall Street firm emailed to clients last week: “November has been quite strong historically. In fact, since 1950, and the past 10 years, it is the best month of the year, while it ranks second over the past 20 years and during a post-election year. November is the best month of the year, but it doesn’t seem to get nearly as much love as you’d think. We all assume December is the best month, but November is actually better and gets very little fanfare.”</p>\n<p>This raises several red flags. Why choose the period since 1950, as opposed to, say, 1960 or 1940? Why focus on just the past 10- or 20 years and not the past 13 or 23 or 27?</p>\n<p>Unless there is a compelling theoretical reason to focus on a subset of the historical data, doing so suggests that deliberate data mining is going on.</p>\n<p>The Dow offers investors monthly data extending back to its creation in May 1896. Over the ensuing 125 years, November’s average return ranks 5th&nbsp;for all years, as you can see in the chart below. November is slightly above average, but not at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, it isn’t even close.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81a13b9bba8ec5e47cf1c0ed3172447f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>How about November being the second-best month in post-presidential election years? Again, this is true for only <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> subset of the historical data. Viewed over the Dow’s entire history, November is in 6th&nbsp;place for average performance during post-presidential election years. In other words, its performance rank in such years is actually slightly worse than in the entire sample.</p>\n<p>I don’t mean to pick on this particular well-known Wall Street CIO, which is why I am not naming him. He actually is in good company.</p>\n<p><b>Playing the odds</b></p>\n<p>There’s an even more fundamental problem with this data mining, beyond their lack of statistical significance: To get historical odds reasonably in your favor when betting on a seasonal pattern, you would have to bet on it consistently many times in a row — several dozen at a minimum. So when betting on a pattern that comes around only once every year, the intelligent bet lasts several decades. The odds of success in any given year are only barely above a coin flip.</p>\n<p>In all Novembers since 1896, for example, the Dow has risen 63% of the time. Even assuming the future will be like the past, a bet that the stock market will gain ground in November will be wrong slightly more than one out of every three years. That’s far too much risk to justify throwing caution to the wind.</p>\n<p>Ideally, from a statistical point of view, you can find statistically significant patterns that are extremely short term. That would allow you, with even a relatively brief holding period, to bet on those patterns a sufficient number of times to get the odds decently in your favor.</p>\n<p>This, for example, is the secret behind the phenomenally successful Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies, which (even after fees) beat the S&amp;P 500SPX,+0.37%between 1988 and 2018 by the incredible margin of 39.2% annualized return to 10.0%. (The fund is not available to outside investors.)</p>\n<p>Brad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reportsthat the odds of success of any of Medallion Fund’s individual trades have been 50.75%, only slightly higher than 50%. But when coupled with high-frequency trading, those odds are enough to produce a highly profitable strategy. Medallion’s “strategy involved constantly opening and covering thousands of short-term positions, both long and short… Taken over millions of trades that [50.75%] percentage allowed the firm to make billions,” Cornell wrote.</p>\n<p>Remember this the next time you read about an alleged seasonal pattern in the stock market. Even when that pattern is statistically significant, which is rare, it won’t help you much over the long term.</p>","source":"lsy1604288433698","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion: Wall Street will tell you that stocks shine in November but here’s the unvarnished truth</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion: Wall Street will tell you that stocks shine in November but here’s the unvarnished truth\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-11-08 12:05 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-will-tell-you-that-stocks-shine-in-november-but-heres-the-unvarnished-truth-11635872739?mod=home-page><strong>Market Wacth</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>November likely will be a good month for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.56%,which can be expected to gain 0.6%, or about 220 points.\nSuch a gain would take the U.S. stock market bellwether to...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-will-tell-you-that-stocks-shine-in-november-but-heres-the-unvarnished-truth-11635872739?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/wall-street-will-tell-you-that-stocks-shine-in-november-but-heres-the-unvarnished-truth-11635872739?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156505839","content_text":"November likely will be a good month for the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+0.56%,which can be expected to gain 0.6%, or about 220 points.\nSuch a gain would take the U.S. stock market bellwether to around the 36,040 level, versus the 35,820 level at which it finished the month of October. Were you hoping for more? After all, the Dow rose almost 6% in October.\nYou shouldn’t be surprised. The Dow’s expected gain this month is the same as it is every other month of the calendar. There is no reason for November to be any better or worse than the historical average.\nIt’s important to point this out to counter those on Wall Street who mine the historical data in search of “uncanny” seasonal patterns. The only real investment lesson we can learn from their efforts is that if you torture the data long and hard enough you can make it say almost anything.\nConsider the claims that the chief investment officer of a major Wall Street firm emailed to clients last week: “November has been quite strong historically. In fact, since 1950, and the past 10 years, it is the best month of the year, while it ranks second over the past 20 years and during a post-election year. November is the best month of the year, but it doesn’t seem to get nearly as much love as you’d think. We all assume December is the best month, but November is actually better and gets very little fanfare.”\nThis raises several red flags. Why choose the period since 1950, as opposed to, say, 1960 or 1940? Why focus on just the past 10- or 20 years and not the past 13 or 23 or 27?\nUnless there is a compelling theoretical reason to focus on a subset of the historical data, doing so suggests that deliberate data mining is going on.\nThe Dow offers investors monthly data extending back to its creation in May 1896. Over the ensuing 125 years, November’s average return ranks 5th for all years, as you can see in the chart below. November is slightly above average, but not at the 95% confidence level that statisticians often use when determining if a pattern is genuine. In fact, it isn’t even close.\n\nHow about November being the second-best month in post-presidential election years? Again, this is true for only one subset of the historical data. Viewed over the Dow’s entire history, November is in 6th place for average performance during post-presidential election years. In other words, its performance rank in such years is actually slightly worse than in the entire sample.\nI don’t mean to pick on this particular well-known Wall Street CIO, which is why I am not naming him. He actually is in good company.\nPlaying the odds\nThere’s an even more fundamental problem with this data mining, beyond their lack of statistical significance: To get historical odds reasonably in your favor when betting on a seasonal pattern, you would have to bet on it consistently many times in a row — several dozen at a minimum. So when betting on a pattern that comes around only once every year, the intelligent bet lasts several decades. The odds of success in any given year are only barely above a coin flip.\nIn all Novembers since 1896, for example, the Dow has risen 63% of the time. Even assuming the future will be like the past, a bet that the stock market will gain ground in November will be wrong slightly more than one out of every three years. That’s far too much risk to justify throwing caution to the wind.\nIdeally, from a statistical point of view, you can find statistically significant patterns that are extremely short term. That would allow you, with even a relatively brief holding period, to bet on those patterns a sufficient number of times to get the odds decently in your favor.\nThis, for example, is the secret behind the phenomenally successful Medallion Fund, from Renaissance Technologies, which (even after fees) beat the S&P 500SPX,+0.37%between 1988 and 2018 by the incredible margin of 39.2% annualized return to 10.0%. (The fund is not available to outside investors.)\nBrad Cornell, a professor emeritus at UCLA, reportsthat the odds of success of any of Medallion Fund’s individual trades have been 50.75%, only slightly higher than 50%. But when coupled with high-frequency trading, those odds are enough to produce a highly profitable strategy. Medallion’s “strategy involved constantly opening and covering thousands of short-term positions, both long and short… Taken over millions of trades that [50.75%] percentage allowed the firm to make billions,” Cornell wrote.\nRemember this the next time you read about an alleged seasonal pattern in the stock market. Even when that pattern is statistically significant, which is rare, it won’t help you much over the long term.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":713,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845195811,"gmtCreate":1636297747939,"gmtModify":1636336241512,"author":{"id":"4092924086715630","authorId":"4092924086715630","name":"PhilipChow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b8d286edd52110b9dade4b1806f3ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092924086715630","authorIdStr":"4092924086715630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNDY\">$Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$</a>Would you think the work management software features’s quality is even better than Asana and Trello?&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MNDY\">$Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$</a>Would you think the work management software features’s quality is even better than Asana and Trello?&nbsp;","text":"$Monday.com Ltd.(MNDY)$Would you think the work management software features’s quality is even better than Asana and Trello?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c36c4a7f258b9273725b4c6fc92d1cd","width":"1125","height":"2472"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845195811","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845192506,"gmtCreate":1636297660786,"gmtModify":1636297660966,"author":{"id":"4092924086715630","authorId":"4092924086715630","name":"PhilipChow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b8d286edd52110b9dade4b1806f3ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092924086715630","authorIdStr":"4092924086715630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$SEA LTD(SE)$</a>Bet on the QR result","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SE\">$SEA LTD(SE)$</a>Bet on the QR result","text":"$SEA LTD(SE)$Bet on the QR result","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/170b75c68abe11c71f81592494a1104d","width":"1284","height":"2538"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/845192506","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":845977778,"gmtCreate":1636274475714,"gmtModify":1636274475932,"author":{"id":"4092924086715630","authorId":"4092924086715630","name":"PhilipChow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b8d286edd52110b9dade4b1806f3ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092924086715630","authorIdStr":"4092924086715630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would 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Tigers who registered for&nbsp;less&nbsp;than 100 days would be candidates for the leaderboard.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; This new column would be issued in&nbsp;the&nbsp;1st&nbsp;week&nbsp;of&nbsp;every month.&nbsp; About the Rewards: Tigers who are the most active in posting, commenting, and liking&nbsp;will be given 1,000 Tiger coins 💰💰💰💰respectively! Tigers who receive the most comments plus likes&nbsp;will be given 1,000(top3) to&nbsp;500(top4-10)&nbsp;Tiger coins 💰💰💰💰each! Now&nbsp;let’s&nbsp;first&nbsp;have&nbsp;a&nbsp;look&nbsp;at&nbsp;the new tigers&nbsp;who&nbsp;were&nbsp;","listText":"Hey,&nbsp;Tigers&nbsp;🐯 Welcome to our column:&nbsp;Tigers of the month!&nbsp;🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 We&nbsp;launched a new leaderboard to encourage&nbsp;NEW&nbsp;USERS to share&nbsp;their opinions in our community. Tigers who registered for&nbsp;less&nbsp;than 100 days would be candidates for the leaderboard.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; This new column would be issued in&nbsp;the&nbsp;1st&nbsp;week&nbsp;of&nbsp;every month.&nbsp; About the Rewards: Tigers who are the most active in posting, commenting, and liking&nbsp;will be given 1,000 Tiger coins 💰💰💰💰respectively! Tigers who receive the most comments plus likes&nbsp;will be given 1,000(top3) to&nbsp;500(top4-10)&nbsp;Tiger coins 💰💰💰💰each! Now&nbsp;let’s&nbsp;first&nbsp;have&nbsp;a&nbsp;look&nbsp;at&nbsp;the new tigers&nbsp;who&nbsp;were&nbsp;","text":"Hey, Tigers 🐯 Welcome to our column: Tigers of the month! 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 We launched a new leaderboard to encourage NEW USERS to share their opinions in our community. Tigers who registered for less than 100 days would be candidates for the leaderboard. This new column would be issued in the 1st week of every month. About the Rewards: Tigers who are the most active in posting, commenting, and liking will be given 1,000 Tiger coins 💰💰💰💰respectively! Tigers who receive the most comments plus likes will be given 1,000(top3) to 500(top4-10) Tiger coins 💰💰💰💰each! Now let’s first have a look at the new tigers who 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ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846558571","repostId":"1136485403","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":829532330,"gmtCreate":1633525771280,"gmtModify":1633525771481,"author":{"id":"4092924086715630","authorId":"4092924086715630","name":"PhilipChow","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7b8d286edd52110b9dade4b1806f3ee","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092924086715630","authorIdStr":"4092924086715630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Luckily I sell off yesterday","listText":"Luckily I sell off yesterday","text":"Luckily I sell off 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