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08-18 01:45
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原油：脆弱的平衡
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"name":"Panos","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91458b7dbf8c9fac88e614829c44d4c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092925738716240","authorIdStr":"4092925738716240"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"4","listText":"4","text":"4","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/597895168103176","repostId":"2660548577","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2660548577","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1786957260,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2660548577?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-17 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cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">双海峡的情况：对前三周的数据平均上修幅度为周度</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">30-50</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日，按修正后的数据来看，</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">SoH</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">日度通行量区间在</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">200-300</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">，曼德海峡日度通行量区间在</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">200</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">左右。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">沙特的情况：</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">yanbu</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">港口</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">loading</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">量级持续下滑，北上走埃及和苏伊士的量级目前仅有</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">150</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日左右；上周观察到</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">Ras Tanura</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">港口装了大概一个</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">v</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">的货，这部分量级能否出</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">SoH</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">较为关键，因为当前沙特库存接近峰值，而出口量连续三周大幅回落，若</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">SoH</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">无法通过</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">sts</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">方式转运出去而被迫成为浮仓，则沙特胀库风险将进一步加剧。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">需求方的情况：亚洲主要消费国的集中到港保证了</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">7/8</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月原料的供应，但随着双海峡的重新封锁，韩国可能面临后续原料紧张的问题相对突出，已经看到韩国转向美国采购，和炼厂可能降负的情况。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">美国的情况：上周美国商业库存大增，主要是进口增量显著以及出口继续回落；四周平均量级仍在解释范围内。进口增量主要来着委内、加拿大等美洲国家，增加重油进口以维持当前高利润下的超高开工以及多切柴油满足经济性选择；出口方面主要因为前期海峡开放期间亚洲多买中东油而减少对美采购，目前看</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">arb</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">情况预计出口将有逐步回升。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 01、双海峡通行量上修</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">双海峡维持通行量低位，前值上修</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">重新封锁后，途径</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">SoH</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">的流量基本维持在</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">200-300</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日区间，但前一周和当周数据基本都有较大滞后性；本周对前三周的上修值达到约</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">120</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">曼德海峡方面对前三周的上修值同样平均每周</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">30-50</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日，目前流量区间维持在</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">200</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日左右。</font></font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/117/w550h367/20260817/c07d-c5022dbf23822dd19ab9c67cbe5eff6d.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/117/w550h367/20260817/091f-9a520e6f10de651c1095a7f4635ff587.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">沙特胀库风险仍未解除</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">沙特库存仍处历史区间分位</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">90%</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">以上，上周沙特总</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">loading</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">量级有所回升但</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">yanbu</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">港口</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">loading</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">继续下降，</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">Ras Tanura</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">港口环比增加近</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">40</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日，推算上周装了一船</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">v</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">，需要观察是否能顺利出</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">SoH</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">；若转向浮仓则沙特胀库风险将继续升级。</font></font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/117/w550h367/20260817/be46-a85b4c036072bcea06fda253b94cea9b.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">亚洲7/8月到港量级相对抬升</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">中国、印度、韩国和日本四国</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">7</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月总到港量为</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">1784</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日，环比增加</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">210</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日；</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">8</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月截至目前确认的到港量级在</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">1700</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日左右，考虑到曼德海峡封锁导致的航距增加以及转向增购美国等地的远距原料等因素，预计</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">8</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月到港量较</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">7</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月差距不大。</font></font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/117/w550h367/20260817/197a-44ab0eec12fbd23b22d1162bcf2e9769.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">8</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">月原料相对问题不大</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 其中中国到港稳定，印度环比有所减少但前几个月总到港量受影响最少，库存最为宽裕；</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">日本前几月增购了非常多</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">wti</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">，目前到港量持续回升已经回到战前水平，但风险在于</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">7</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月后对美国油的采购量大幅回落；唯一需要担心的是韩国，到港再次回落后可能无法维持当前的高开工，后续有降负风险。</font></font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/116/w550h366/20260817/cfcf-02afcbd6ca8ec7ac13cfc3bbf81a2a36.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">库存更新</font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/787/w550h237/20260817/ebce-0591c37d5e721f5cb7ab1b6fcc209eb2.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/117/w550h367/20260817/9302-0321999da52dcebe164709faf5780099.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 02、美国库存大增</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">上周美国<span>原油</span><span></span>库存大增</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">上周美国商业原油库存增加</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">1742</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶，单周库存大增的主要原因是进口集中到港以及</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">arb</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">关闭情况下出口回落低位。</font></font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/118/w550h368/20260817/a594-863cc42a7865714a81375eacadcb90cd.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 单周数据波动较大，更多还是看四周平均和后续的船期预期。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">进口的增量主要来自委内、加拿大、以及巴西等美洲国家，整体在补充重油，以维持当前高利润下的高开工，以及多切柴油组分；出口方面，由于此前向亚洲和欧洲的</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">arb</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">窗口一般，出口量级回落，而随着双海峡的持续封锁，亚洲如韩国开始不得不采购美国原油以保障</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">9-10</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月的原料供应。</font></font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/730/w550h180/20260817/1415-cd5bdebab21c4558cb69e0ac6482bd62.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-right\"> 数据来源：大地期货研究院</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 03、结构数据更新</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">月差</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">back</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">截至</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">8</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">14</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">日，</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">ti</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">近次月价差收于</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">0.93</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">，近</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">2-3</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">收于</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">1.37</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">；</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">brt</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">近次月收于</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">1.95</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">，近</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">2-3</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">收于</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">2.18</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">；</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">SC</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">近次月收于</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">4.4</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">。</font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/132/w550h382/20260817/11b8-17f1f2e144c26251c00fce8a511721bb.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">油品裂解维持高位</font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/134/w550h384/20260817/2730-b3d2b80d9af125379158e61a6e7e2637.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/134/w550h384/20260817/3899-5101973c8ba3d01ae306904a3f7e979a.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">Brt</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">净多大幅回升</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">8</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">11</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">日当周，</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">brt</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">基金多头增加</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">43680</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">手，空头减少</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">8177</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">手，净多</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">增加</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">51857</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">手。</font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/739/w550h189/20260817/446c-42202166cbe8d910b87c59a9714573c9.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">ti净多继续回落</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">8</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">11</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">日当周，</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">TI</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">基金多头增加</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">1036</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">手，空头增加</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">8078</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">手，净多减少</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">7042</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">手。</font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/739/w550h189/20260817/eebe-6106293f63feeeccd08f8e5ee94699b8.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-right\"> 黄琬喆</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-right\"> 从业资格证号：F3075583</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-right\"> 投资咨询证号：Z0020508</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-right\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L align-right\">联系方式：</font><font cms-style=\"font-L align-right\"><font cms-style=\"font-L align-right\">huangwz@ddqh.com</font></font></p>\n<div>\n<span>新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障</span>\n<img src=\"\"/>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>原油：脆弱的平衡</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n原油：脆弱的平衡\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-17 17:01 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/2026-08-17/doc-ininrkkk0138334.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>热点栏目\n\n自选股\n数据中心\n行情中心\n资金流向\n模拟交易\n\n客户端\n\n\n 大地期货研究院\n 观点小结\n 核心观点：Brt80-95\n 美伊谈判结果落空，市场优先交易海峡事实性封锁带来的供应减量。\n 双海峡的情况：对前三周的数据平均上修幅度为周度30-50万桶日，按修正后的数据来看，SoH日度通行量区间在200-300，曼德海峡日度通行量区间在200左右。\n 沙特的情况：yanbu港口...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/2026-08-17/doc-ininrkkk0138334.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FAAR":"First Trust Alternative Absolute Return Strategy ETF","PXE":"Invesco Energy Exploration & Production ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","USO":"美国原油ETF","XOP":"油气开采指数ETF-SPDR S&P","USE":"USCF Energy Commodity Strategy Absolute Return Fund","OILT":"Texas Oil Index ETF","USL":"United States 12 Month Oil Fund LP","USOI":"ETRACS Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETN","OILU":"MicroSectors Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. 3x Leveraged ETN","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DRIP":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares","DIG":"二倍做多美国油气指数","PXJ":"Invesco Oil & Gas Services ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","BK4588":"碎股","FTXN":"First Trust Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF","IXC":"全球能源业ETF-iShares","FBZ":"First Trust Brazil AlphaDEX Fund","DRLL":"Strive U.S. Energy ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","BNO":"美国布伦特原油基金有限合伙企业","WTIU":"MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETN","UGA":"United States Gasoline Fund LP","XES":"SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF","VDE":"Vanguard Energy ETF","OIH":"石油服务ETF","GUSH":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil &Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X Shares","DBO":"原油ETF-PowerShares","ERX":"二倍做多能源ETF-Direxion","FLBR":"Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF","IEO":"iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas","DBC":"商品指数ETF-PowerShares DB","DBE":"能源商品ETF-PowerShares","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","OILK":"ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/2026-08-17/doc-ininrkkk0138334.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2660548577","content_text":"热点栏目\n\n自选股\n数据中心\n行情中心\n资金流向\n模拟交易\n\n客户端\n\n\n 大地期货研究院\n 观点小结\n 核心观点：Brt80-95\n 美伊谈判结果落空，市场优先交易海峡事实性封锁带来的供应减量。\n 双海峡的情况：对前三周的数据平均上修幅度为周度30-50万桶日，按修正后的数据来看，SoH日度通行量区间在200-300，曼德海峡日度通行量区间在200左右。\n 沙特的情况：yanbu港口loading量级持续下滑，北上走埃及和苏伊士的量级目前仅有150万桶日左右；上周观察到Ras Tanura港口装了大概一个v的货，这部分量级能否出SoH较为关键，因为当前沙特库存接近峰值，而出口量连续三周大幅回落，若SoH无法通过sts方式转运出去而被迫成为浮仓，则沙特胀库风险将进一步加剧。\n 需求方的情况：亚洲主要消费国的集中到港保证了7/8月原料的供应，但随着双海峡的重新封锁，韩国可能面临后续原料紧张的问题相对突出，已经看到韩国转向美国采购，和炼厂可能降负的情况。\n 美国的情况：上周美国商业库存大增，主要是进口增量显著以及出口继续回落；四周平均量级仍在解释范围内。进口增量主要来着委内、加拿大等美洲国家，增加重油进口以维持当前高利润下的超高开工以及多切柴油满足经济性选择；出口方面主要因为前期海峡开放期间亚洲多买中东油而减少对美采购，目前看arb情况预计出口将有逐步回升。\n 01、双海峡通行量上修\n 双海峡维持通行量低位，前值上修\n 重新封锁后，途径SoH的流量基本维持在200-300万桶日区间，但前一周和当周数据基本都有较大滞后性；本周对前三周的上修值达到约120万桶日。\n 曼德海峡方面对前三周的上修值同样平均每周30-50万桶日，目前流量区间维持在200万桶日左右。\n\n\n 沙特胀库风险仍未解除\n 沙特库存仍处历史区间分位90%以上，上周沙特总loading量级有所回升但yanbu港口loading继续下降，Ras Tanura港口环比增加近40万桶日，推算上周装了一船v，需要观察是否能顺利出SoH；若转向浮仓则沙特胀库风险将继续升级。\n\n 亚洲7/8月到港量级相对抬升\n 中国、印度、韩国和日本四国7月总到港量为1784万桶日，环比增加210万桶日；8月截至目前确认的到港量级在1700万桶日左右，考虑到曼德海峡封锁导致的航距增加以及转向增购美国等地的远距原料等因素，预计8月到港量较7月差距不大。\n\n 8月原料相对问题不大\n 其中中国到港稳定，印度环比有所减少但前几个月总到港量受影响最少，库存最为宽裕；\n 日本前几月增购了非常多wti，目前到港量持续回升已经回到战前水平，但风险在于7月后对美国油的采购量大幅回落；唯一需要担心的是韩国，到港再次回落后可能无法维持当前的高开工，后续有降负风险。\n\n 库存更新\n\n\n 02、美国库存大增\n 上周美国原油库存大增\n 上周美国商业原油库存增加1742万桶，单周库存大增的主要原因是进口集中到港以及arb关闭情况下出口回落低位。\n\n 单周数据波动较大，更多还是看四周平均和后续的船期预期。\n 进口的增量主要来自委内、加拿大、以及巴西等美洲国家，整体在补充重油，以维持当前高利润下的高开工，以及多切柴油组分；出口方面，由于此前向亚洲和欧洲的arb窗口一般，出口量级回落，而随着双海峡的持续封锁，亚洲如韩国开始不得不采购美国原油以保障9-10月的原料供应。\n\n 数据来源：大地期货研究院\n 03、结构数据更新\n 月差back\n 截至8月14日，ti近次月价差收于0.93，近2-3收于1.37；brt近次月收于1.95，近2-3收于2.18；SC近次月收于4.4。\n\n 油品裂解维持高位\n\n\n Brt净多大幅回升\n 8月11日当周，brt基金多头增加43680手，空头减少8177手，净多增加51857手。\n\n ti净多继续回落\n 8月11日当周，TI基金多头增加1036手，空头增加8078手，净多减少7042手。\n\n 黄琬喆\n 从业资格证号：F3075583\n 投资咨询证号：Z0020508\n 联系方式：huangwz@ddqh.com\n\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USE":1.5,"PXE":1.5,"IXC":1.5,"OILT":1.5,"OIH":1.5,"USOI":1.5,"UGA":1.5,"BZmain":0.6,"PXJ":1.5,"DUG":1.5,"UCO":1.5,"GUSH":1.5,"IEO":1.5,"DDG":0.6,"XES":1.5,"VDE":1.5,"SCO":1.5,"DBC":1.5,"USO":1.5,"DBE":1.5,"MCLmain":1.5,"DBO":1.5,"DRIP":1.5,"CLmain":1.5,"BNO":1.5,"DWT":0.6,"FBZ":1.5,"FTXN":1.5,"FLBR":1.5,"DIG":1.5,"WTIU":1.5,"OILK":1.5,"ERX":1.5,"QMmain":1.5,"OILU":1.5,"XOP":1.5,"FAAR":1.5,"USL":1.5,"DRLL":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":597895168103176,"gmtCreate":1786988723360,"gmtModify":1787014769330,"author":{"id":"4092925738716240","authorId":"4092925738716240","name":"Panos","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d91458b7dbf8c9fac88e614829c44d4c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4092925738716240","authorIdStr":"4092925738716240"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"4","listText":"4","text":"4","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/597895168103176","repostId":"2660548577","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2660548577","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1786957260,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2660548577?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-17 17:01","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"原油：脆弱的平衡","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2660548577","media":"市场资讯","summary":"双海峡的情况：对前三周的数据平均上修幅度为周度30-50万桶日，按修正后的数据来看，SoH日度通行量区间在200-300，曼德海峡日度通行量区间在200左右。库存更新02、美国库存大增上周美国原油库存大增上周美国商业原油库存增加1742万桶，单周库存大增的主要原因是进口集中到港以及arb关闭情况下出口回落低位。ti净多继续回落8月11日当周，TI基金多头增加1036手，空头增加8078手，净多减少7042手。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<p>\n<img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/770/w640h130/20240312/9be9-7bcc77500b41e587aee5a856fe9849e2.png\"/>\n</p>\n<div>\n<div>\n<img src=\"http://image.sinajs.cn/n/hf/min/640x360xxfhd/CL.png\"/>\n</div>\n<div>\n<div>\n<span>热点栏目</span>\n<s></s>\n自选股\n数据中心\n行情中心\n资金流向\n模拟交易\n</div>\n客户端\n</div>\n</div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 大地期货研究院</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 观点小结</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\">核心观点：Brt80-95</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 美伊谈判结果落空，市场优先交易<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002320\">海峡</a>事实性封锁带来的供应减量。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">双海峡的情况：对前三周的数据平均上修幅度为周度</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">30-50</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日，按修正后的数据来看，</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">SoH</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">日度通行量区间在</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">200-300</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">，曼德海峡日度通行量区间在</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">200</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">左右。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">沙特的情况：</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">yanbu</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">港口</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">loading</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">量级持续下滑，北上走埃及和苏伊士的量级目前仅有</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">150</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日左右；上周观察到</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">Ras Tanura</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">港口装了大概一个</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">v</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">的货，这部分量级能否出</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">SoH</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">较为关键，因为当前沙特库存接近峰值，而出口量连续三周大幅回落，若</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">SoH</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">无法通过</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">sts</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">方式转运出去而被迫成为浮仓，则沙特胀库风险将进一步加剧。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">需求方的情况：亚洲主要消费国的集中到港保证了</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">7/8</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月原料的供应，但随着双海峡的重新封锁，韩国可能面临后续原料紧张的问题相对突出，已经看到韩国转向美国采购，和炼厂可能降负的情况。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">美国的情况：上周美国商业库存大增，主要是进口增量显著以及出口继续回落；四周平均量级仍在解释范围内。进口增量主要来着委内、加拿大等美洲国家，增加重油进口以维持当前高利润下的超高开工以及多切柴油满足经济性选择；出口方面主要因为前期海峡开放期间亚洲多买中东油而减少对美采购，目前看</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">arb</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">情况预计出口将有逐步回升。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 01、双海峡通行量上修</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">双海峡维持通行量低位，前值上修</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">重新封锁后，途径</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">SoH</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">的流量基本维持在</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">200-300</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日区间，但前一周和当周数据基本都有较大滞后性；本周对前三周的上修值达到约</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">120</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日。</font></font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">曼德海峡方面对前三周的上修值同样平均每周</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">30-50</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日，目前流量区间维持在</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">200</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日左右。</font></font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/117/w550h367/20260817/c07d-c5022dbf23822dd19ab9c67cbe5eff6d.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/117/w550h367/20260817/091f-9a520e6f10de651c1095a7f4635ff587.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">沙特胀库风险仍未解除</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">沙特库存仍处历史区间分位</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">90%</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">以上，上周沙特总</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">loading</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">量级有所回升但</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">yanbu</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">港口</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">loading</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">继续下降，</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">Ras Tanura</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">港口环比增加近</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">40</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日，推算上周装了一船</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">v</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">，需要观察是否能顺利出</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">SoH</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">；若转向浮仓则沙特胀库风险将继续升级。</font></font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/117/w550h367/20260817/be46-a85b4c036072bcea06fda253b94cea9b.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">亚洲7/8月到港量级相对抬升</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">中国、印度、韩国和日本四国</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">7</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月总到港量为</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">1784</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日，环比增加</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">210</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日；</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">8</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月截至目前确认的到港量级在</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">1700</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶日左右，考虑到曼德海峡封锁导致的航距增加以及转向增购美国等地的远距原料等因素，预计</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">8</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月到港量较</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">7</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月差距不大。</font></font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/117/w550h367/20260817/197a-44ab0eec12fbd23b22d1162bcf2e9769.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\"><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">8</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">月原料相对问题不大</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 其中中国到港稳定，印度环比有所减少但前几个月总到港量受影响最少，库存最为宽裕；</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">日本前几月增购了非常多</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">wti</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">，目前到港量持续回升已经回到战前水平，但风险在于</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">7</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月后对美国油的采购量大幅回落；唯一需要担心的是韩国，到港再次回落后可能无法维持当前的高开工，后续有降负风险。</font></font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/116/w550h366/20260817/cfcf-02afcbd6ca8ec7ac13cfc3bbf81a2a36.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">库存更新</font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/787/w550h237/20260817/ebce-0591c37d5e721f5cb7ab1b6fcc209eb2.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/117/w550h367/20260817/9302-0321999da52dcebe164709faf5780099.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 02、美国库存大增</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">上周美国<span>原油</span><span></span>库存大增</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">上周美国商业原油库存增加</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">1742</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">万桶，单周库存大增的主要原因是进口集中到港以及</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">arb</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">关闭情况下出口回落低位。</font></font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/118/w550h368/20260817/a594-863cc42a7865714a81375eacadcb90cd.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> 单周数据波动较大，更多还是看四周平均和后续的船期预期。</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">进口的增量主要来自委内、加拿大、以及巴西等美洲国家，整体在补充重油，以维持当前高利润下的高开工，以及多切柴油组分；出口方面，由于此前向亚洲和欧洲的</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">arb</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">窗口一般，出口量级回落，而随着双海峡的持续封锁，亚洲如韩国开始不得不采购美国原油以保障</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">9-10</font></font><font cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月的原料供应。</font></font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/730/w550h180/20260817/1415-cd5bdebab21c4558cb69e0ac6482bd62.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-right\"> 数据来源：大地期货研究院</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> 03、结构数据更新</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">月差</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">back</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">截至</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">8</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">14</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">日，</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">ti</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">近次月价差收于</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">0.93</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">，近</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">2-3</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">收于</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">1.37</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">；</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">brt</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">近次月收于</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">1.95</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">，近</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">2-3</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">收于</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">2.18</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">；</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">SC</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">近次月收于</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">4.4</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">。</font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/132/w550h382/20260817/11b8-17f1f2e144c26251c00fce8a511721bb.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">油品裂解维持高位</font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/134/w550h384/20260817/2730-b3d2b80d9af125379158e61a6e7e2637.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/134/w550h384/20260817/3899-5101973c8ba3d01ae306904a3f7e979a.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">Brt</font><font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">净多大幅回升</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">8</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">11</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">日当周，</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">brt</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">基金多头增加</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">43680</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">手，空头减少</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">8177</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">手，净多</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">增加</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">51857</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">手。</font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/739/w550h189/20260817/446c-42202166cbe8d910b87c59a9714573c9.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L strong-Bold color240\">ti净多继续回落</font></p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L\">8</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">月</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">11</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">日当周，</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">TI</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">基金多头增加</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">1036</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">手，空头增加</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">8078</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">手，净多减少</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">7042</font><font cms-style=\"font-L\">手。</font></p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/739/w550h189/20260817/eebe-6106293f63feeeccd08f8e5ee94699b8.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-right\"> 黄琬喆</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-right\"> 从业资格证号：F3075583</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-right\"> 投资咨询证号：Z0020508</p>\n<p cms-style=\"font-L align-right\"> <font cms-style=\"font-L align-right\">联系方式：</font><font cms-style=\"font-L align-right\"><font cms-style=\"font-L align-right\">huangwz@ddqh.com</font></font></p>\n<div>\n<span>新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障</span>\n<img src=\"\"/>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>原油：脆弱的平衡</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n原油：脆弱的平衡\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-17 17:01 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/2026-08-17/doc-ininrkkk0138334.shtml><strong>市场资讯</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>热点栏目\n\n自选股\n数据中心\n行情中心\n资金流向\n模拟交易\n\n客户端\n\n\n 大地期货研究院\n 观点小结\n 核心观点：Brt80-95\n 美伊谈判结果落空，市场优先交易海峡事实性封锁带来的供应减量。\n 双海峡的情况：对前三周的数据平均上修幅度为周度30-50万桶日，按修正后的数据来看，SoH日度通行量区间在200-300，曼德海峡日度通行量区间在200左右。\n 沙特的情况：yanbu港口...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/2026-08-17/doc-ininrkkk0138334.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FAAR":"First Trust Alternative Absolute Return Strategy ETF","PXE":"Invesco Energy Exploration & Production ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","USO":"美国原油ETF","XOP":"油气开采指数ETF-SPDR S&P","USE":"USCF Energy Commodity Strategy Absolute Return Fund","OILT":"Texas Oil Index ETF","USL":"United States 12 Month Oil Fund LP","USOI":"ETRACS Crude Oil Shares Covered Call ETN","OILU":"MicroSectors Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. 3x Leveraged ETN","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DRIP":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil & Gas Exp. & Prod. Bear 2X Shares","DIG":"二倍做多美国油气指数","PXJ":"Invesco Oil & Gas Services ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","BK4588":"碎股","FTXN":"First Trust Nasdaq Oil & Gas ETF","IXC":"全球能源业ETF-iShares","FBZ":"First Trust Brazil AlphaDEX Fund","DRLL":"Strive U.S. Energy ETF","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","BNO":"美国布伦特原油基金有限合伙企业","WTIU":"MICROSECTORS ENERGY 3X LEVERAGED ETN","UGA":"United States Gasoline Fund LP","XES":"SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Equipment & Services ETF","VDE":"Vanguard Energy ETF","OIH":"石油服务ETF","GUSH":"Direxion Daily S&P Oil &Gas Exp. & Prod. Bull 2X Shares","DBO":"原油ETF-PowerShares","ERX":"二倍做多能源ETF-Direxion","FLBR":"Franklin FTSE Brazil ETF","IEO":"iShares Dow Jones U.S. Oil & Gas","DBC":"商品指数ETF-PowerShares DB","DBE":"能源商品ETF-PowerShares","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","DUG":"二倍做空石油与天然气ETF(ProShares)","OILK":"ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil ETF"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/money/future/2026-08-17/doc-ininrkkk0138334.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2660548577","content_text":"热点栏目\n\n自选股\n数据中心\n行情中心\n资金流向\n模拟交易\n\n客户端\n\n\n 大地期货研究院\n 观点小结\n 核心观点：Brt80-95\n 美伊谈判结果落空，市场优先交易海峡事实性封锁带来的供应减量。\n 双海峡的情况：对前三周的数据平均上修幅度为周度30-50万桶日，按修正后的数据来看，SoH日度通行量区间在200-300，曼德海峡日度通行量区间在200左右。\n 沙特的情况：yanbu港口loading量级持续下滑，北上走埃及和苏伊士的量级目前仅有150万桶日左右；上周观察到Ras Tanura港口装了大概一个v的货，这部分量级能否出SoH较为关键，因为当前沙特库存接近峰值，而出口量连续三周大幅回落，若SoH无法通过sts方式转运出去而被迫成为浮仓，则沙特胀库风险将进一步加剧。\n 需求方的情况：亚洲主要消费国的集中到港保证了7/8月原料的供应，但随着双海峡的重新封锁，韩国可能面临后续原料紧张的问题相对突出，已经看到韩国转向美国采购，和炼厂可能降负的情况。\n 美国的情况：上周美国商业库存大增，主要是进口增量显著以及出口继续回落；四周平均量级仍在解释范围内。进口增量主要来着委内、加拿大等美洲国家，增加重油进口以维持当前高利润下的超高开工以及多切柴油满足经济性选择；出口方面主要因为前期海峡开放期间亚洲多买中东油而减少对美采购，目前看arb情况预计出口将有逐步回升。\n 01、双海峡通行量上修\n 双海峡维持通行量低位，前值上修\n 重新封锁后，途径SoH的流量基本维持在200-300万桶日区间，但前一周和当周数据基本都有较大滞后性；本周对前三周的上修值达到约120万桶日。\n 曼德海峡方面对前三周的上修值同样平均每周30-50万桶日，目前流量区间维持在200万桶日左右。\n\n\n 沙特胀库风险仍未解除\n 沙特库存仍处历史区间分位90%以上，上周沙特总loading量级有所回升但yanbu港口loading继续下降，Ras Tanura港口环比增加近40万桶日，推算上周装了一船v，需要观察是否能顺利出SoH；若转向浮仓则沙特胀库风险将继续升级。\n\n 亚洲7/8月到港量级相对抬升\n 中国、印度、韩国和日本四国7月总到港量为1784万桶日，环比增加210万桶日；8月截至目前确认的到港量级在1700万桶日左右，考虑到曼德海峡封锁导致的航距增加以及转向增购美国等地的远距原料等因素，预计8月到港量较7月差距不大。\n\n 8月原料相对问题不大\n 其中中国到港稳定，印度环比有所减少但前几个月总到港量受影响最少，库存最为宽裕；\n 日本前几月增购了非常多wti，目前到港量持续回升已经回到战前水平，但风险在于7月后对美国油的采购量大幅回落；唯一需要担心的是韩国，到港再次回落后可能无法维持当前的高开工，后续有降负风险。\n\n 库存更新\n\n\n 02、美国库存大增\n 上周美国原油库存大增\n 上周美国商业原油库存增加1742万桶，单周库存大增的主要原因是进口集中到港以及arb关闭情况下出口回落低位。\n\n 单周数据波动较大，更多还是看四周平均和后续的船期预期。\n 进口的增量主要来自委内、加拿大、以及巴西等美洲国家，整体在补充重油，以维持当前高利润下的高开工，以及多切柴油组分；出口方面，由于此前向亚洲和欧洲的arb窗口一般，出口量级回落，而随着双海峡的持续封锁，亚洲如韩国开始不得不采购美国原油以保障9-10月的原料供应。\n\n 数据来源：大地期货研究院\n 03、结构数据更新\n 月差back\n 截至8月14日，ti近次月价差收于0.93，近2-3收于1.37；brt近次月收于1.95，近2-3收于2.18；SC近次月收于4.4。\n\n 油品裂解维持高位\n\n\n Brt净多大幅回升\n 8月11日当周，brt基金多头增加43680手，空头减少8177手，净多增加51857手。\n\n ti净多继续回落\n 8月11日当周，TI基金多头增加1036手，空头增加8078手，净多减少7042手。\n\n 黄琬喆\n 从业资格证号：F3075583\n 投资咨询证号：Z0020508\n 联系方式：huangwz@ddqh.com\n\n新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USE":1.5,"PXE":1.5,"IXC":1.5,"OILT":1.5,"OIH":1.5,"USOI":1.5,"UGA":1.5,"BZmain":0.6,"PXJ":1.5,"DUG":1.5,"UCO":1.5,"GUSH":1.5,"IEO":1.5,"DDG":0.6,"XES":1.5,"VDE":1.5,"SCO":1.5,"DBC":1.5,"USO":1.5,"DBE":1.5,"MCLmain":1.5,"DBO":1.5,"DRIP":1.5,"CLmain":1.5,"BNO":1.5,"DWT":0.6,"FBZ":1.5,"FTXN":1.5,"FLBR":1.5,"DIG":1.5,"WTIU":1.5,"OILK":1.5,"ERX":1.5,"QMmain":1.5,"OILU":1.5,"XOP":1.5,"FAAR":1.5,"USL":1.5,"DRLL":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
