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10-22 18:27
只要央行在增持黄金,大盘子就在,小波动不足为惧。
金价为何暴跌?高盛交易员:黄金走势图看起来就像一只妖股的崩盘
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13:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"金价为何暴跌?高盛交易员:黄金走势图看起来就像一只妖股的崩盘","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2577334024","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛分析,此次暴跌并无“明显导火索”,主要归因于市场在连续九周上涨后,多头头寸变得极度拥挤,从而引发了技术性“踩踏”。ETF成为这轮抛售的主战场,黄金ETF成交额一度占到美国所有上市ETF名义总成交额的8%,创记录新高。交易员暗示这可能是一次“逢低买入”的机会,一旦市场出现企稳迹象,就会有资金流入。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>连续数周的强劲涨势戛然而止,昨日金银市场经历了惊心动魄的一天。</p><p>10月21日周二,现货黄金价格盘中一度暴跌6.3%,逼近4000美元关口,创下逾12年来最大单日跌幅,这一波动被视为“5西格玛”(5 sigma)级别的罕见事件。</p><p>现货白银跌幅更甚,一度下挫8.7%。这轮突如其来的抛售终结了此前一周金银价格连创历史新高的势头。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>交易员评价道:</p><blockquote><p><strong>黄金走势图看起来就像一只崩盘的“妖股”(meme stock)。</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8a3fe0995b03d2008163c6e378d0a541\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"698\"/></p><p>而黄金市场的剧烈动荡迅速传导至相关股票。主要黄金生产商巴里克矿业、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEM\">纽蒙特矿业</a>和Agnico Eagle Mines的股价在周二早盘均下跌超过8%。</p><p>此前,市场对美联储年底前大幅降息的预期,以及投资者为对冲主权债务和货币贬值风险而进行的“通胀保值交易”,共同推动了金价飙升。然而,周二的暴跌表明,即使在宏观背景看似有利的情况下,过热的市场情绪也可能引发剧烈的回调。</p><p>当前,现货黄金有所反弹,日内小幅转涨报4132美元/盎司。</p><h2 id=\"id_2501696804\">“没有明显的导火索”,过度拥挤的头寸是主因?</h2><p>据高盛大宗商品交易台的专家Adam Gillard分析,此次金价下跌“没有看到明显的导火索”。他指出,价格首先在亚洲交易时段走低,随后在伦敦和美国市场开盘时触发了止损盘。</p><p>Gillard认为,由于此前的上涨行情本身就很少由特定的“头条新闻”驱动,而是受到更广泛的“货币贬值主题”的持续推动,因此很难将此次回调归咎于某个具体的负面消息。这或强化了技术性因素是主导力量的观点。</p><p>而对于这次十年来最大的百分比跌幅,最好的解释可能就是“头寸”问题。Gillard认为,在经历连续九周的上涨后,市场变得异常拥挤。</p><p>高盛交易员提供的一些市场观察也印证了这一点:在金价每天上涨约50美元的日子里,“我们几乎没有收到任何客户的问询”;黄金是客户中最受欢迎的多头头寸,在多数客户调查中,超过80%的受访者认为金价在年底前会上涨;同时,越来越多非大宗商品领域的账户也开始配置黄金。</p><p>Adam Gillard据此认为,一场头寸的“清洗”或许是不可避免的。</p><h2 id=\"id_887664308\">ETF成为抛售主战场</h2><p>交易所交易基金(ETF)在此次市场波动中扮演了核心角色,成为投资者快速建立和清算头寸的主要工具。</p><p>据高盛的数据,黄金ETF GLD的成交额一度占到美国所有上市ETF名义总成交额的8%,这是其数据库中有记录以来的最高份额。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a226fab7861aa58893255559abb47664\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"485\"/></p><p>此外,自今年2月以来,美国上市的现货黄金ETF资产管理规模(AUM)几乎翻了一番,其中过半的年度资金流入发生在过去三个月。与此同时,GLD(黄金)的期权未平仓合约名义价值也创下历史新高。</p><p>相比之下,芝商所的黄金期货成交量虽有放大,但并未创下年内新高,这表明大量头寸集中在ETF产品中。</p><h2 id=\"id_3526738662\">这是崩盘的序章还是短期震荡?</h2><p>尽管市场遭遇重挫,但高盛认为,驱动金价上涨的长期宏观背景并未改变。例如,美国国债总额刚刚触及37.98万亿美元的历史新高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b2230c901a0040638a7eb727a7633c73\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"506\"/></p><p>高盛交易员的观点是,金价越高,那些没有投资但想投资的群体就越大。因此,他们预计一旦市场出现企稳迹象,就会有资金流入。</p><p>其指出,4000美元/盎司的价位需要守住。市场同时也在关注,在上海黄金交易所金价表现相对抗跌后,亚洲的实物买家是否会在次日入场。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>金价为何暴跌?高盛交易员:黄金走势图看起来就像一只妖股的崩盘</title>\n<style 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Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c307757575ffe3d6ca9295ced646627f","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1894683348.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) INC","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","GLD":"SPDR黄金ETF","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","BK4516":"特朗普概念","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757632","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2577334024","content_text":"连续数周的强劲涨势戛然而止,昨日金银市场经历了惊心动魄的一天。10月21日周二,现货黄金价格盘中一度暴跌6.3%,逼近4000美元关口,创下逾12年来最大单日跌幅,这一波动被视为“5西格玛”(5 sigma)级别的罕见事件。现货白银跌幅更甚,一度下挫8.7%。这轮突如其来的抛售终结了此前一周金银价格连创历史新高的势头。高盛交易员评价道:黄金走势图看起来就像一只崩盘的“妖股”(meme stock)。而黄金市场的剧烈动荡迅速传导至相关股票。主要黄金生产商巴里克矿业、纽蒙特矿业和Agnico Eagle Mines的股价在周二早盘均下跌超过8%。此前,市场对美联储年底前大幅降息的预期,以及投资者为对冲主权债务和货币贬值风险而进行的“通胀保值交易”,共同推动了金价飙升。然而,周二的暴跌表明,即使在宏观背景看似有利的情况下,过热的市场情绪也可能引发剧烈的回调。当前,现货黄金有所反弹,日内小幅转涨报4132美元/盎司。“没有明显的导火索”,过度拥挤的头寸是主因?据高盛大宗商品交易台的专家Adam Gillard分析,此次金价下跌“没有看到明显的导火索”。他指出,价格首先在亚洲交易时段走低,随后在伦敦和美国市场开盘时触发了止损盘。Gillard认为,由于此前的上涨行情本身就很少由特定的“头条新闻”驱动,而是受到更广泛的“货币贬值主题”的持续推动,因此很难将此次回调归咎于某个具体的负面消息。这或强化了技术性因素是主导力量的观点。而对于这次十年来最大的百分比跌幅,最好的解释可能就是“头寸”问题。Gillard认为,在经历连续九周的上涨后,市场变得异常拥挤。高盛交易员提供的一些市场观察也印证了这一点:在金价每天上涨约50美元的日子里,“我们几乎没有收到任何客户的问询”;黄金是客户中最受欢迎的多头头寸,在多数客户调查中,超过80%的受访者认为金价在年底前会上涨;同时,越来越多非大宗商品领域的账户也开始配置黄金。Adam Gillard据此认为,一场头寸的“清洗”或许是不可避免的。ETF成为抛售主战场交易所交易基金(ETF)在此次市场波动中扮演了核心角色,成为投资者快速建立和清算头寸的主要工具。据高盛的数据,黄金ETF GLD的成交额一度占到美国所有上市ETF名义总成交额的8%,这是其数据库中有记录以来的最高份额。此外,自今年2月以来,美国上市的现货黄金ETF资产管理规模(AUM)几乎翻了一番,其中过半的年度资金流入发生在过去三个月。与此同时,GLD(黄金)的期权未平仓合约名义价值也创下历史新高。相比之下,芝商所的黄金期货成交量虽有放大,但并未创下年内新高,这表明大量头寸集中在ETF产品中。这是崩盘的序章还是短期震荡?尽管市场遭遇重挫,但高盛认为,驱动金价上涨的长期宏观背景并未改变。例如,美国国债总额刚刚触及37.98万亿美元的历史新高。高盛交易员的观点是,金价越高,那些没有投资但想投资的群体就越大。因此,他们预计一旦市场出现企稳迹象,就会有资金流入。其指出,4000美元/盎司的价位需要守住。市场同时也在关注,在上海黄金交易所金价表现相对抗跌后,亚洲的实物买家是否会在次日入场。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":1.5,"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"1OZmain":1.5,"GCmain":1.5,"MGCmain":1.5,"QOmain":1.5,"SGCmain":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"GDX":0.6,"GLD":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"NUGT":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":37,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":491963362132344,"gmtCreate":1761128838585,"gmtModify":1761129027628,"author":{"id":"4094593769208900","authorId":"4094593769208900","name":"伊丸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35b45901580752a740e99824cd4d3e1c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094593769208900","authorIdStr":"4094593769208900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"只要央行在增持黄金,大盘子就在,小波动不足为惧。","listText":"只要央行在增持黄金,大盘子就在,小波动不足为惧。","text":"只要央行在增持黄金,大盘子就在,小波动不足为惧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/491963362132344","repostId":"2577334024","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2577334024","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1761112190,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2577334024?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-22 13:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"金价为何暴跌?高盛交易员:黄金走势图看起来就像一只妖股的崩盘","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2577334024","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛分析,此次暴跌并无“明显导火索”,主要归因于市场在连续九周上涨后,多头头寸变得极度拥挤,从而引发了技术性“踩踏”。ETF成为这轮抛售的主战场,黄金ETF成交额一度占到美国所有上市ETF名义总成交额的8%,创记录新高。交易员暗示这可能是一次“逢低买入”的机会,一旦市场出现企稳迹象,就会有资金流入。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>连续数周的强劲涨势戛然而止,昨日金银市场经历了惊心动魄的一天。</p><p>10月21日周二,现货黄金价格盘中一度暴跌6.3%,逼近4000美元关口,创下逾12年来最大单日跌幅,这一波动被视为“5西格玛”(5 sigma)级别的罕见事件。</p><p>现货白银跌幅更甚,一度下挫8.7%。这轮突如其来的抛售终结了此前一周金银价格连创历史新高的势头。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>交易员评价道:</p><blockquote><p><strong>黄金走势图看起来就像一只崩盘的“妖股”(meme stock)。</strong></p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8a3fe0995b03d2008163c6e378d0a541\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"698\"/></p><p>而黄金市场的剧烈动荡迅速传导至相关股票。主要黄金生产商巴里克矿业、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NEM\">纽蒙特矿业</a>和Agnico Eagle Mines的股价在周二早盘均下跌超过8%。</p><p>此前,市场对美联储年底前大幅降息的预期,以及投资者为对冲主权债务和货币贬值风险而进行的“通胀保值交易”,共同推动了金价飙升。然而,周二的暴跌表明,即使在宏观背景看似有利的情况下,过热的市场情绪也可能引发剧烈的回调。</p><p>当前,现货黄金有所反弹,日内小幅转涨报4132美元/盎司。</p><h2 id=\"id_2501696804\">“没有明显的导火索”,过度拥挤的头寸是主因?</h2><p>据高盛大宗商品交易台的专家Adam Gillard分析,此次金价下跌“没有看到明显的导火索”。他指出,价格首先在亚洲交易时段走低,随后在伦敦和美国市场开盘时触发了止损盘。</p><p>Gillard认为,由于此前的上涨行情本身就很少由特定的“头条新闻”驱动,而是受到更广泛的“货币贬值主题”的持续推动,因此很难将此次回调归咎于某个具体的负面消息。这或强化了技术性因素是主导力量的观点。</p><p>而对于这次十年来最大的百分比跌幅,最好的解释可能就是“头寸”问题。Gillard认为,在经历连续九周的上涨后,市场变得异常拥挤。</p><p>高盛交易员提供的一些市场观察也印证了这一点:在金价每天上涨约50美元的日子里,“我们几乎没有收到任何客户的问询”;黄金是客户中最受欢迎的多头头寸,在多数客户调查中,超过80%的受访者认为金价在年底前会上涨;同时,越来越多非大宗商品领域的账户也开始配置黄金。</p><p>Adam Gillard据此认为,一场头寸的“清洗”或许是不可避免的。</p><h2 id=\"id_887664308\">ETF成为抛售主战场</h2><p>交易所交易基金(ETF)在此次市场波动中扮演了核心角色,成为投资者快速建立和清算头寸的主要工具。</p><p>据高盛的数据,黄金ETF GLD的成交额一度占到美国所有上市ETF名义总成交额的8%,这是其数据库中有记录以来的最高份额。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a226fab7861aa58893255559abb47664\" tg-width=\"765\" tg-height=\"485\"/></p><p>此外,自今年2月以来,美国上市的现货黄金ETF资产管理规模(AUM)几乎翻了一番,其中过半的年度资金流入发生在过去三个月。与此同时,GLD(黄金)的期权未平仓合约名义价值也创下历史新高。</p><p>相比之下,芝商所的黄金期货成交量虽有放大,但并未创下年内新高,这表明大量头寸集中在ETF产品中。</p><h2 id=\"id_3526738662\">这是崩盘的序章还是短期震荡?</h2><p>尽管市场遭遇重挫,但高盛认为,驱动金价上涨的长期宏观背景并未改变。例如,美国国债总额刚刚触及37.98万亿美元的历史新高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b2230c901a0040638a7eb727a7633c73\" tg-width=\"793\" tg-height=\"506\"/></p><p>高盛交易员的观点是,金价越高,那些没有投资但想投资的群体就越大。因此,他们预计一旦市场出现企稳迹象,就会有资金流入。</p><p>其指出,4000美元/盎司的价位需要守住。市场同时也在关注,在上海黄金交易所金价表现相对抗跌后,亚洲的实物买家是否会在次日入场。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>金价为何暴跌?高盛交易员:黄金走势图看起来就像一只妖股的崩盘</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n金价为何暴跌?高盛交易员:黄金走势图看起来就像一只妖股的崩盘\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-22 13:49 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757632><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>连续数周的强劲涨势戛然而止,昨日金银市场经历了惊心动魄的一天。10月21日周二,现货黄金价格盘中一度暴跌6.3%,逼近4000美元关口,创下逾12年来最大单日跌幅,这一波动被视为“5西格玛”(5 sigma)级别的罕见事件。现货白银跌幅更甚,一度下挫8.7%。这轮突如其来的抛售终结了此前一周金银价格连创历史新高的势头。高盛交易员评价道:黄金走势图看起来就像一只崩盘的“妖股”(meme stock)...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757632\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c307757575ffe3d6ca9295ced646627f","relate_stocks":{"159831":"黄金","159934":"黄金ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1894683264.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS US EQUITY RESEARCH VALUE \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I 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USD","BK4516":"特朗普概念","IAU":"黄金信托ETF(iShares)","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757632","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2577334024","content_text":"连续数周的强劲涨势戛然而止,昨日金银市场经历了惊心动魄的一天。10月21日周二,现货黄金价格盘中一度暴跌6.3%,逼近4000美元关口,创下逾12年来最大单日跌幅,这一波动被视为“5西格玛”(5 sigma)级别的罕见事件。现货白银跌幅更甚,一度下挫8.7%。这轮突如其来的抛售终结了此前一周金银价格连创历史新高的势头。高盛交易员评价道:黄金走势图看起来就像一只崩盘的“妖股”(meme stock)。而黄金市场的剧烈动荡迅速传导至相关股票。主要黄金生产商巴里克矿业、纽蒙特矿业和Agnico Eagle Mines的股价在周二早盘均下跌超过8%。此前,市场对美联储年底前大幅降息的预期,以及投资者为对冲主权债务和货币贬值风险而进行的“通胀保值交易”,共同推动了金价飙升。然而,周二的暴跌表明,即使在宏观背景看似有利的情况下,过热的市场情绪也可能引发剧烈的回调。当前,现货黄金有所反弹,日内小幅转涨报4132美元/盎司。“没有明显的导火索”,过度拥挤的头寸是主因?据高盛大宗商品交易台的专家Adam Gillard分析,此次金价下跌“没有看到明显的导火索”。他指出,价格首先在亚洲交易时段走低,随后在伦敦和美国市场开盘时触发了止损盘。Gillard认为,由于此前的上涨行情本身就很少由特定的“头条新闻”驱动,而是受到更广泛的“货币贬值主题”的持续推动,因此很难将此次回调归咎于某个具体的负面消息。这或强化了技术性因素是主导力量的观点。而对于这次十年来最大的百分比跌幅,最好的解释可能就是“头寸”问题。Gillard认为,在经历连续九周的上涨后,市场变得异常拥挤。高盛交易员提供的一些市场观察也印证了这一点:在金价每天上涨约50美元的日子里,“我们几乎没有收到任何客户的问询”;黄金是客户中最受欢迎的多头头寸,在多数客户调查中,超过80%的受访者认为金价在年底前会上涨;同时,越来越多非大宗商品领域的账户也开始配置黄金。Adam Gillard据此认为,一场头寸的“清洗”或许是不可避免的。ETF成为抛售主战场交易所交易基金(ETF)在此次市场波动中扮演了核心角色,成为投资者快速建立和清算头寸的主要工具。据高盛的数据,黄金ETF GLD的成交额一度占到美国所有上市ETF名义总成交额的8%,这是其数据库中有记录以来的最高份额。此外,自今年2月以来,美国上市的现货黄金ETF资产管理规模(AUM)几乎翻了一番,其中过半的年度资金流入发生在过去三个月。与此同时,GLD(黄金)的期权未平仓合约名义价值也创下历史新高。相比之下,芝商所的黄金期货成交量虽有放大,但并未创下年内新高,这表明大量头寸集中在ETF产品中。这是崩盘的序章还是短期震荡?尽管市场遭遇重挫,但高盛认为,驱动金价上涨的长期宏观背景并未改变。例如,美国国债总额刚刚触及37.98万亿美元的历史新高。高盛交易员的观点是,金价越高,那些没有投资但想投资的群体就越大。因此,他们预计一旦市场出现企稳迹象,就会有资金流入。其指出,4000美元/盎司的价位需要守住。市场同时也在关注,在上海黄金交易所金价表现相对抗跌后,亚洲的实物买家是否会在次日入场。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159831":1.5,"159934":0.6,"518880":0.6,"DUST":0.6,"1OZmain":1.5,"GCmain":1.5,"MGCmain":1.5,"QOmain":1.5,"SGCmain":0.6,"SGUmain":0.6,"GDX":0.6,"GLD":0.6,"IAU":0.6,"NUGT":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":37,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}