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2021-12-23

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SEAC Stock: 15 Things We Know as TikTok Competitor Triller Confirms Reverse Merger Plans<blockquote>SEAC 股票：随着 TikTok 竞争对手 Triller 确认反向合并计划，我们所知道的 15 件事</blockquote>

2021-12-23

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Best Buy Option Traders See Slide Continuing<blockquote>百思买期权交易者看到下滑仍在继续</blockquote>

2021-12-23

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Grab Stock May Be Down But It Isn’t Out<blockquote>Grab 股票可能会下跌，但还没有下跌</blockquote>

2021-12-23

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Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>

2021-12-23

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,"authorId":"4094701214252590","name":"tabbicatty","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c37c880fb1db837d1d1d4d14150f23ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094701214252590","authorIdStr":"4094701214252590"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691450046","repostId":"1144834386","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144834386","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640228239,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1144834386?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 10:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SEAC Stock: 15 Things We Know as TikTok Competitor Triller Confirms Reverse Merger Plans<blockquote>SEAC 股票：随着 TikTok 竞争对手 Triller 确认反向合并计划，我们所知道的 15 件事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144834386","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"SeaChange International(NASDAQ:SEAC) stock is rocketing higher on Wednesday thanks to news of a merg","content":"<p><div> SeaChange International(NASDAQ:SEAC) stock is rocketing higher on Wednesday thanks to news of a merger agreement with Triller. Let’s take in all that news below!  The agreement will have Triller and ...</p><p><blockquote><div>由于与 Triller 达成合并协议的消息，SeaChange International（纳斯达克股票代码：SEAC）股价周三飙升。让我们一起来看看下面的新闻吧!该协议将有惊悚片和……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/seac-stock-15-things-we-know-as-tiktok-competitor-triller-confirms-reverse-merger-plans/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/seac-stock-15-things-we-know-as-tiktok-competitor-triller-confirms-reverse-merger-plans/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SEAC Stock: 15 Things We Know as TikTok Competitor Triller Confirms Reverse Merger Plans<blockquote>SEAC 股票：随着 TikTok 竞争对手 Triller 确认反向合并计划，我们所知道的 15 件事</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSEAC Stock: 15 Things We Know as TikTok Competitor Triller Confirms Reverse Merger Plans<blockquote>SEAC 股票：随着 TikTok 竞争对手 Triller 确认反向合并计划，我们所知道的 15 件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 10:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> SeaChange International(NASDAQ:SEAC) stock is rocketing higher on Wednesday thanks to news of a merger agreement with Triller. Let’s take in all that news below!  The agreement will have Triller and ...</p><p><blockquote><div>由于与 Triller 达成合并协议的消息，SeaChange International（纳斯达克股票代码：SEAC）股价周三飙升。让我们一起来看看下面的新闻吧!该协议将有惊悚片和……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/seac-stock-15-things-we-know-as-tiktok-competitor-triller-confirms-reverse-merger-plans/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/seac-stock-15-things-we-know-as-tiktok-competitor-triller-confirms-reverse-merger-plans/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/seac-stock-15-things-we-know-as-tiktok-competitor-triller-confirms-reverse-merger-plans/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SEAC":"海易国际"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/seac-stock-15-things-we-know-as-tiktok-competitor-triller-confirms-reverse-merger-plans/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144834386","content_text":"SeaChange International(NASDAQ:SEAC) stock is rocketing higher on Wednesday thanks to news of a merger agreement with Triller.\nLet’s take in all that news below!\n\nThe agreement will have Triller and SeaChange International enacting a reverse merger.\nThat means that once the merger is complete, the new company will operate as TrillerVerz.\nTo go along with that, the ticker for the company’s stock will switch from SEAC to ILLR.\nThis has the two companies expecting a value of $5 billion for the combined company.\nTrillerVerz is looking to create a business focused on the Web3.0 movement.\nThis has it looking to become the voice of users in the 18- to the 34-year-old age group.\nThat would have it challenging TikTok as a social media platform for creators and influencers.\nWhen the deal closes, the new company will be led by TrillerVerz CEO Mahi de Silva.\n\n\nPeter Aquino, current president and CEO of SeaChange International, will stick around as part of the new company’s team.\nThe Boards of Directors at both companies have given their support to the deal.\nThis has the two companies expecting the reverse merger to close sometime in the first quarter of 2022.\nRumors of a deal between the two companies kicked off last week.\nSEAC stock is experiencing heavy trading on today’s news.\nThat has some 137 million shares of the stock changing hands.\nFor the record, its daily average trading volume is closer to 7 million shares.\n\nSEAC stock is up 9.5% on Wednesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SEAC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691427212,"gmtCreate":1640230874130,"gmtModify":1640230874130,"author":{"id":"4094701214252590","authorId":"4094701214252590","name":"tabbicatty","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c37c880fb1db837d1d1d4d14150f23ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094701214252590","authorIdStr":"4094701214252590"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691427212","repostId":"2193111443","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2193111443","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640229918,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2193111443?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 11:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Best Buy Option Traders See Slide Continuing<blockquote>百思买期权交易者看到下滑仍在继续</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2193111443","media":"Investopedia","summary":"Put/call ratio climbing rapidly","content":"<p><h3>Key Takeaways</h3> <ul>  <li>Best Buy stock remains in a sharp downward trend.</li>  <li>Recent trading volumes appear bullish at first glance, but finer aspects of recent changes to the open interest appear bearish.</li>  <li>The share price for Best Buy remains well below its 20-day moving average.</li>  <li>Volatility-based support and resistance levels allow for a larger move to the upside.</li> </ul> The share price of Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) has remained in a downward trend since the company fell 12% the day after its latest earnings report was released in late November. Despite beating analyst expectations, investors bid down the share prices of Best Buy as analysts expressed fear toward consumer demand and high supply chain costs. Recent market volatility has not provided a foundation on which Best Buy stock can pivot to the upside.</p><p><blockquote><h3>主要要点</h3><ul><li>百思买股票仍处于大幅下跌趋势。</li><li>最近的交易量乍一看似乎是看涨的，但最近未平仓合约变化的细微方面似乎是看跌的。</li><li>百思买的股价仍远低于 20 天移动平均线。</li><li>基于波动性的支撑位和阻力位允许更大的上行。</li></ul>Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) 的股价自 11 月下旬发布最新收益报告后的第二天下跌 12% 以来一直处于下跌趋势。尽管超出分析师预期，但由于分析师对消费者需求和高供应链成本表示担忧，投资者仍下调了百思买的股价。最近的市场波动并没有为百思买股票的上涨提供基础。</blockquote></p><p> At first glance, it appears thatr option traders are positioned for the Best Buy share price to reverse its recent downward trend. However, a deeper dive into the finer aspects of the Best Buy open interest paints a clearer picture. In addition, aspects of the Best Buy implied volatility suggest that the market is predicting further downside in the near term for Best Buy.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，期权交易者似乎准备让百思买股价扭转近期的下跌趋势。然而，深入研究百思买未平仓合约的细节会描绘出一幅更清晰的画面。此外，百思买隐含波动性的各个方面表明，市场预测百思买在短期内将进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Whereas recent trading volumes for Best Buy appear bullish at first glance, a more in-depth analysis of recent open interest changes and the impact of implied volatility suggests that option traders are buying put options and selling calls.</p><p><blockquote>尽管百思买最近的交易量乍一看似乎看涨，但对最近未平仓合约变化和隐含波动性影响的更深入分析表明，期权交易者正在购买看跌期权并出售评级。</blockquote></p><p> Chart watchers can gain valuable insight into the overall sentiment toward Best Buy stock by combining an assessment of recent option activity with technical analysis of share price activity. The chart below depicts the recent price action for the Best Buy share price as of Tuesday, Dec 21.</p><p><blockquote>图表观察者可以通过将近期期权活动的评估与股价活动的技术分析相结合，获得对百思买股票整体情绪的宝贵见解。下图描述了截至 12 月 21 日星期二百思买股价的近期价格走势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2881b79593f655bc029301a1fe1c433c\" tg-width=\"1722\" tg-height=\"775\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <h2> Chart Analysis </h2> The chart illustrates the share price action of Best Buy over the course of the past three months. Each candle represents <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> trading day. The blue lines are a historical volatility range formed by 20-day Keltner Channel indicators, which depict price levels that represent a multiple of the average true fange (ATR) for Best Buy stock. ATR is a standard tool for illustrating historical volatility over time. The outer bands of the historical volatility range widened after the earnings-based share price drop and appear to be further pushing outwards to the downside as the share price continues to decline.</p><p><blockquote><h2>图表分析</h2>该图表说明了百思买过去三个月的股价走势。每根蜡烛代表<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>交易日。蓝线是由 20 天 Keltner 通道指标形成的历史波动范围，该指标描述了代表百思买股票平均真实价格 (ATR) 倍数的价格水平。ATR 是说明随时间变化的历史波动性的标准工具。基于盈利的股价下跌后，历史波动范围的外带扩大，并随着股价持续下跌，似乎进一步向外推向下行。</blockquote></p><p> From the left-hand side of the chart, Best Buy stock was in a mild downward trend, trading below its 20-day moving average. This is highlighted by the red arrow. This trend reversed at the beginning of October. This upward trend is highlighted by the green arrow. This helps to highlight the way that Best Buy stock rose to the extreme highs of the volatility range, topping out with its 52-week high the day before releasing earnings in late November.</p><p><blockquote>从图表左侧来看，百思买股票呈温和下跌趋势，交易价格低于 20 日移动平均线。红色箭头突出显示了这一点。这一趋势在10月初逆转。绿色箭头突出显示了这种上升趋势。这有助于凸显百思买股票如何升至波动性范围的极端高点，并在 11 月下旬发布财报的前一天触及 52 周高点。</blockquote></p><p> After dropping 12% the day after reporting earnings, Best Buy stock has remained in a strong downward trend at the extreme low of the volatility range. This trend is highlighted in blue. It's interesting to note that, at this time, Best Buy stock has failed to trade above its 20-day moving average, even on an intraday basis.</p><p><blockquote>在公布财报后的第二天下跌 12% 后，百思买股票在波动率范围的极低位置仍处于强劲下跌趋势。这种趋势用蓝色突出显示。有趣的是，目前百思买股票的交易价格未能高于其 20 天移动平均线，即使是盘中也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> In the past month, the highest Best Buy share price was $141.97, a 52-week high, in late November. This price is highlighted by the green balloon. Conversely, the lower share price during this time was $94.54 in mid-December, highlighted by the red balloon.</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，百思买最高股价为 11 月下旬的 141.97 美元，创 52 周新高。绿色气球突出显示了这个价格。相反，这段时间的较低股价是12月中旬的94.54美元，突出显示为红色气球。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Tip</h3> The <b>Keltner Channel indicator</b> displays a set of semi-parallel lines based on a 20-day simple moving average and an upper and lower line. Because the upper lines are drawn by adding a multiple of ATR to the average and the lower lines are drawn by subtracting a multiple of ATR from the average price, this channel indicator makes for an excellent visualization tool when charting historical volatility.</p><p><blockquote><h3>尖端</h3>这个<b>凯尔特纳通道指示器</b>显示一组基于20天简单移动平均线和上线和下线的半平行线。由于上线是通过将 ATR 的倍数添加到平均值中来绘制的，而下线是通过从平均价格中减去 ATR 的倍数来绘制的，因此该通道指标是绘制历史波动性图表时的出色可视化工具。</blockquote></p><p> <h2> Option Analysis </h2> Recent trading volumes of Best Buy options greatly favor calls over puts. On Tuesday, Dec. 21, over 8,000 calls were traded compared to 4,100 puts. This is nearly double the number of calls than puts, which, at first glance, appears bullish. However, trading volumes alone only tell one part of the story.</p><p><blockquote><h2>期权分析</h2>百思买期权最近的交易量大大有利于评级而不是看跌期权。12 月 21 日星期二，交易量超过 8,000 份评级，而看跌期权为 4,100 份。这几乎是看跌期权数量的两倍，看跌期权乍一看似乎看涨。然而，单靠交易量只能说明问题的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> An analysis of a stock's open interest can provide greater context into the sentiment of option traders. The current open interest for Best Buy features 75,000 calls against 82,000 puts. While recent trading volumes are incredibly bullish, these open interest figures illustrate a more moderate view of Best Buy's share price from option traders. However, much like trading volumes, open interest figures require further analysis to provide deeper insights into option trader sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>对股票未平仓合约的分析可以更好地了解期权交易者的情绪。百思买目前的未平仓合约为 75,000 份评级，而看跌期权为 82,000 份。虽然最近的交易量令人难以置信地看涨，但这些未平仓合约数据表明期权交易员对百思买股价的看法更为温和。然而，就像交易量一样，未平仓合约数据需要进一步分析，以更深入地了解期权交易者的情绪。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For Jan. 21, the next monthly option expiration date, there are a greater number of put options in the open interest than calls. The single option with the highest open interest is the $90 put with 4,400. This represents 7% downside to the current share price of Best Buy.</p><p><blockquote>对于下一个月度期权到期日 1 月 21 日，未平仓合约中的看跌期权数量多于评级。未平仓合约最高的单一期权是 90 美元的 4,400 美元看跌期权。这意味着百思买当前股价下跌了 7%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering at-the-money options and one strike in either direction up or down the option chain, there are more than 2.5-to-1 puts than calls in the open interest for Jan. 21. This is important to consider, as these strikes perhaps reflect more realistic price action based on current share prices rather than far out-of-the-money options, which may have numbers skewed by speculators and option sellers collecting premium. The current number, with far more puts than calls, expresses a bearish sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到平价期权以及期权链上下方向的一次行权，1 月 21 日未平仓合约中的看跌期权比评级多 2.5 比 1。这一点需要考虑，因为这些行权可能反映了基于当前股价的更现实的价格行为，而不是远远超值的期权，后者的数字可能会因投机者和期权卖家收取权利金而扭曲。目前的数字，看跌期权远远多于评级，表达了看跌情绪。</blockquote></p><p> While the open interest is slightly bearish in total, option open interest as a whole is noticeably down. Over the past five days, total open interest has decreased 34%. While the open interest of puts has decreased by 22%, the call open interest has declined by 43% over this time period. This means that, while fewer option traders are willing to hold Best Buy options, more traders are taking positions with put options than calls. This is reflected in the put/call ratio, which has risen 36% in the past five days.</p><p><blockquote>虽然未平仓合约总体上略有看跌，但期权未平仓合约整体明显下降。过去五天，未平仓合约总额下降了 34%。虽然看跌期权的未平仓合约下降了22%，但看涨期权未平仓合约在此期间下降了43%。这意味着，虽然愿意持有百思买期权的期权交易者较少，但持有看跌期权的交易者却多于评级。这反映在看跌/看涨期权比率上，该比率在过去五天中上涨了36%。</blockquote></p><p> A key measure for option trader sentiment in open interest is implied volatility. For options expiring Jan. 21, implied volatility suggests that traders are selling calls and buying puts. That's because for call options, the open interest is rising while implied volatility is falling, suggesting that traders are selling more contracts on short positions in the option. Conversely, for put options, open interest is rising while implied volatility is also rising, indicating that traders are adding to long positions in the option.</p><p><blockquote>衡量期权交易者对未平仓合约情绪的一个关键指标是隐含波动率。对于 1 月 21 日到期的期权，隐含波动率表明交易者正在出售评级并购买看跌期权。这是因为对于看涨期权期权来说，未平仓合约正在上升，而隐含波动率正在下降，这表明交易者正在出售更多期权空头合约。相反，对于看跌期权，未平仓合约正在上升，而隐含波动率也在上升，这表明交易者正在增加期权的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> While considering implied volatility, it is helpful to understand a concept known as volatility skew. Volatility skew is a measure of market implied volatility to both the upside and the downside, and the comparison of how they relate to each other. Current implied volatility skew is very bearish toward Best Buy. That's because the implied volatility for downside puts is greatly increasing relative to upside calls, which suggests that the market is pricing in a larger fear of a downside move for Best Buy. This skew can also be seen visually by the expanding volatility bands on the chart.</p><p><blockquote>在考虑隐含波动率时，理解波动率偏差的概念是有帮助的。波动性偏差是衡量市场上行和下行隐含波动性的指标，以及它们之间相互关系的比较。当前隐含波动率偏差非常看跌百思买。这是因为相对于上行评级，下行看跌期权的隐含波动性大幅增加，这表明市场对百思买下行的担忧加大了。这种偏差也可以通过图表上不断扩大的波动带直观地看到。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below illustrates at-the-money options expiring Jan. 21. The green box represents the pricing that call option sellers are offering and it implies a 38% probability that Best Buy shares will close inside this range or higher by expiration. The red box illustrates the pricing for puts, with a 37% chance if prices go lower by expiration.</p><p><blockquote>下图说明了 1 月 21 日到期的实值期权。绿色方框代表看涨期权期权卖方提供的定价，这意味着百思买股票到期时收盘价在该范围内或更高的概率为 38%。红框显示了看跌期权的定价，如果到期价格下跌，则有 37% 的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bace0981b0d5f72264fe230de94b232a\" tg-width=\"1727\" tg-height=\"773\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <h2>The Bottom Line </h2> Over the past month, Best Buy shares have fallen 29.6%. The share price decrease and current downward trend was kick started by a 12% single day earnings-based share decline. Option traders appear to be positioned for the Best Buy share price to continue to fall in the near term. That's because the Best Buy put option open interest percentage is declining less rapidly than the call option open interest percentage, and the put call ratio has recently risen an alarming amount.</p><p><blockquote><h2>底线</h2>过去一个月，百思买股价下跌了 29.6%。股价下跌和当前的下跌趋势是由基于单日收益的股价下跌 12% 引发的。期权交易员似乎预计百思买股价将在短期内继续下跌。这是因为百思买看跌期权未平仓合约百分比的下降速度低于看涨期权期权未平仓合约百分比，而且看跌看涨期权比率最近上升了惊人的幅度。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606203311635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Best Buy Option Traders See Slide Continuing<blockquote>百思买期权交易者看到下滑仍在继续</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBest Buy Option Traders See Slide Continuing<blockquote>百思买期权交易者看到下滑仍在继续</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Investopedia</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 11:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><h3>Key Takeaways</h3> <ul>  <li>Best Buy stock remains in a sharp downward trend.</li>  <li>Recent trading volumes appear bullish at first glance, but finer aspects of recent changes to the open interest appear bearish.</li>  <li>The share price for Best Buy remains well below its 20-day moving average.</li>  <li>Volatility-based support and resistance levels allow for a larger move to the upside.</li> </ul> The share price of Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) has remained in a downward trend since the company fell 12% the day after its latest earnings report was released in late November. Despite beating analyst expectations, investors bid down the share prices of Best Buy as analysts expressed fear toward consumer demand and high supply chain costs. Recent market volatility has not provided a foundation on which Best Buy stock can pivot to the upside.</p><p><blockquote><h3>主要要点</h3><ul><li>百思买股票仍处于大幅下跌趋势。</li><li>最近的交易量乍一看似乎是看涨的，但最近未平仓合约变化的细微方面似乎是看跌的。</li><li>百思买的股价仍远低于 20 天移动平均线。</li><li>基于波动性的支撑位和阻力位允许更大的上行。</li></ul>Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) 的股价自 11 月下旬发布最新收益报告后的第二天下跌 12% 以来一直处于下跌趋势。尽管超出分析师预期，但由于分析师对消费者需求和高供应链成本表示担忧，投资者仍下调了百思买的股价。最近的市场波动并没有为百思买股票的上涨提供基础。</blockquote></p><p> At first glance, it appears thatr option traders are positioned for the Best Buy share price to reverse its recent downward trend. However, a deeper dive into the finer aspects of the Best Buy open interest paints a clearer picture. In addition, aspects of the Best Buy implied volatility suggest that the market is predicting further downside in the near term for Best Buy.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，期权交易者似乎准备让百思买股价扭转近期的下跌趋势。然而，深入研究百思买未平仓合约的细节会描绘出一幅更清晰的画面。此外，百思买隐含波动性的各个方面表明，市场预测百思买在短期内将进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Whereas recent trading volumes for Best Buy appear bullish at first glance, a more in-depth analysis of recent open interest changes and the impact of implied volatility suggests that option traders are buying put options and selling calls.</p><p><blockquote>尽管百思买最近的交易量乍一看似乎看涨，但对最近未平仓合约变化和隐含波动性影响的更深入分析表明，期权交易者正在购买看跌期权并出售评级。</blockquote></p><p> Chart watchers can gain valuable insight into the overall sentiment toward Best Buy stock by combining an assessment of recent option activity with technical analysis of share price activity. The chart below depicts the recent price action for the Best Buy share price as of Tuesday, Dec 21.</p><p><blockquote>图表观察者可以通过将近期期权活动的评估与股价活动的技术分析相结合，获得对百思买股票整体情绪的宝贵见解。下图描述了截至 12 月 21 日星期二百思买股价的近期价格走势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2881b79593f655bc029301a1fe1c433c\" tg-width=\"1722\" tg-height=\"775\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <h2> Chart Analysis </h2> The chart illustrates the share price action of Best Buy over the course of the past three months. Each candle represents <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> trading day. The blue lines are a historical volatility range formed by 20-day Keltner Channel indicators, which depict price levels that represent a multiple of the average true fange (ATR) for Best Buy stock. ATR is a standard tool for illustrating historical volatility over time. The outer bands of the historical volatility range widened after the earnings-based share price drop and appear to be further pushing outwards to the downside as the share price continues to decline.</p><p><blockquote><h2>图表分析</h2>该图表说明了百思买过去三个月的股价走势。每根蜡烛代表<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>交易日。蓝线是由 20 天 Keltner 通道指标形成的历史波动范围，该指标描述了代表百思买股票平均真实价格 (ATR) 倍数的价格水平。ATR 是说明随时间变化的历史波动性的标准工具。基于盈利的股价下跌后，历史波动范围的外带扩大，并随着股价持续下跌，似乎进一步向外推向下行。</blockquote></p><p> From the left-hand side of the chart, Best Buy stock was in a mild downward trend, trading below its 20-day moving average. This is highlighted by the red arrow. This trend reversed at the beginning of October. This upward trend is highlighted by the green arrow. This helps to highlight the way that Best Buy stock rose to the extreme highs of the volatility range, topping out with its 52-week high the day before releasing earnings in late November.</p><p><blockquote>从图表左侧来看，百思买股票呈温和下跌趋势，交易价格低于 20 日移动平均线。红色箭头突出显示了这一点。这一趋势在10月初逆转。绿色箭头突出显示了这种上升趋势。这有助于凸显百思买股票如何升至波动性范围的极端高点，并在 11 月下旬发布财报的前一天触及 52 周高点。</blockquote></p><p> After dropping 12% the day after reporting earnings, Best Buy stock has remained in a strong downward trend at the extreme low of the volatility range. This trend is highlighted in blue. It's interesting to note that, at this time, Best Buy stock has failed to trade above its 20-day moving average, even on an intraday basis.</p><p><blockquote>在公布财报后的第二天下跌 12% 后，百思买股票在波动率范围的极低位置仍处于强劲下跌趋势。这种趋势用蓝色突出显示。有趣的是，目前百思买股票的交易价格未能高于其 20 天移动平均线，即使是盘中也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> In the past month, the highest Best Buy share price was $141.97, a 52-week high, in late November. This price is highlighted by the green balloon. Conversely, the lower share price during this time was $94.54 in mid-December, highlighted by the red balloon.</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，百思买最高股价为 11 月下旬的 141.97 美元，创 52 周新高。绿色气球突出显示了这个价格。相反，这段时间的较低股价是12月中旬的94.54美元，突出显示为红色气球。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Tip</h3> The <b>Keltner Channel indicator</b> displays a set of semi-parallel lines based on a 20-day simple moving average and an upper and lower line. Because the upper lines are drawn by adding a multiple of ATR to the average and the lower lines are drawn by subtracting a multiple of ATR from the average price, this channel indicator makes for an excellent visualization tool when charting historical volatility.</p><p><blockquote><h3>尖端</h3>这个<b>凯尔特纳通道指示器</b>显示一组基于20天简单移动平均线和上线和下线的半平行线。由于上线是通过将 ATR 的倍数添加到平均值中来绘制的，而下线是通过从平均价格中减去 ATR 的倍数来绘制的，因此该通道指标是绘制历史波动性图表时的出色可视化工具。</blockquote></p><p> <h2> Option Analysis </h2> Recent trading volumes of Best Buy options greatly favor calls over puts. On Tuesday, Dec. 21, over 8,000 calls were traded compared to 4,100 puts. This is nearly double the number of calls than puts, which, at first glance, appears bullish. However, trading volumes alone only tell one part of the story.</p><p><blockquote><h2>期权分析</h2>百思买期权最近的交易量大大有利于评级而不是看跌期权。12 月 21 日星期二，交易量超过 8,000 份评级，而看跌期权为 4,100 份。这几乎是看跌期权数量的两倍，看跌期权乍一看似乎看涨。然而，单靠交易量只能说明问题的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> An analysis of a stock's open interest can provide greater context into the sentiment of option traders. The current open interest for Best Buy features 75,000 calls against 82,000 puts. While recent trading volumes are incredibly bullish, these open interest figures illustrate a more moderate view of Best Buy's share price from option traders. However, much like trading volumes, open interest figures require further analysis to provide deeper insights into option trader sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>对股票未平仓合约的分析可以更好地了解期权交易者的情绪。百思买目前的未平仓合约为 75,000 份评级，而看跌期权为 82,000 份。虽然最近的交易量令人难以置信地看涨，但这些未平仓合约数据表明期权交易员对百思买股价的看法更为温和。然而，就像交易量一样，未平仓合约数据需要进一步分析，以更深入地了解期权交易者的情绪。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For Jan. 21, the next monthly option expiration date, there are a greater number of put options in the open interest than calls. The single option with the highest open interest is the $90 put with 4,400. This represents 7% downside to the current share price of Best Buy.</p><p><blockquote>对于下一个月度期权到期日 1 月 21 日，未平仓合约中的看跌期权数量多于评级。未平仓合约最高的单一期权是 90 美元的 4,400 美元看跌期权。这意味着百思买当前股价下跌了 7%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering at-the-money options and one strike in either direction up or down the option chain, there are more than 2.5-to-1 puts than calls in the open interest for Jan. 21. This is important to consider, as these strikes perhaps reflect more realistic price action based on current share prices rather than far out-of-the-money options, which may have numbers skewed by speculators and option sellers collecting premium. The current number, with far more puts than calls, expresses a bearish sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到平价期权以及期权链上下方向的一次行权，1 月 21 日未平仓合约中的看跌期权比评级多 2.5 比 1。这一点需要考虑，因为这些行权可能反映了基于当前股价的更现实的价格行为，而不是远远超值的期权，后者的数字可能会因投机者和期权卖家收取权利金而扭曲。目前的数字，看跌期权远远多于评级，表达了看跌情绪。</blockquote></p><p> While the open interest is slightly bearish in total, option open interest as a whole is noticeably down. Over the past five days, total open interest has decreased 34%. While the open interest of puts has decreased by 22%, the call open interest has declined by 43% over this time period. This means that, while fewer option traders are willing to hold Best Buy options, more traders are taking positions with put options than calls. This is reflected in the put/call ratio, which has risen 36% in the past five days.</p><p><blockquote>虽然未平仓合约总体上略有看跌，但期权未平仓合约整体明显下降。过去五天，未平仓合约总额下降了 34%。虽然看跌期权的未平仓合约下降了22%，但看涨期权未平仓合约在此期间下降了43%。这意味着，虽然愿意持有百思买期权的期权交易者较少，但持有看跌期权的交易者却多于评级。这反映在看跌/看涨期权比率上，该比率在过去五天中上涨了36%。</blockquote></p><p> A key measure for option trader sentiment in open interest is implied volatility. For options expiring Jan. 21, implied volatility suggests that traders are selling calls and buying puts. That's because for call options, the open interest is rising while implied volatility is falling, suggesting that traders are selling more contracts on short positions in the option. Conversely, for put options, open interest is rising while implied volatility is also rising, indicating that traders are adding to long positions in the option.</p><p><blockquote>衡量期权交易者对未平仓合约情绪的一个关键指标是隐含波动率。对于 1 月 21 日到期的期权，隐含波动率表明交易者正在出售评级并购买看跌期权。这是因为对于看涨期权期权来说，未平仓合约正在上升，而隐含波动率正在下降，这表明交易者正在出售更多期权空头合约。相反，对于看跌期权，未平仓合约正在上升，而隐含波动率也在上升，这表明交易者正在增加期权的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> While considering implied volatility, it is helpful to understand a concept known as volatility skew. Volatility skew is a measure of market implied volatility to both the upside and the downside, and the comparison of how they relate to each other. Current implied volatility skew is very bearish toward Best Buy. That's because the implied volatility for downside puts is greatly increasing relative to upside calls, which suggests that the market is pricing in a larger fear of a downside move for Best Buy. This skew can also be seen visually by the expanding volatility bands on the chart.</p><p><blockquote>在考虑隐含波动率时，理解波动率偏差的概念是有帮助的。波动性偏差是衡量市场上行和下行隐含波动性的指标，以及它们之间相互关系的比较。当前隐含波动率偏差非常看跌百思买。这是因为相对于上行评级，下行看跌期权的隐含波动性大幅增加，这表明市场对百思买下行的担忧加大了。这种偏差也可以通过图表上不断扩大的波动带直观地看到。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below illustrates at-the-money options expiring Jan. 21. The green box represents the pricing that call option sellers are offering and it implies a 38% probability that Best Buy shares will close inside this range or higher by expiration. The red box illustrates the pricing for puts, with a 37% chance if prices go lower by expiration.</p><p><blockquote>下图说明了 1 月 21 日到期的实值期权。绿色方框代表看涨期权期权卖方提供的定价，这意味着百思买股票到期时收盘价在该范围内或更高的概率为 38%。红框显示了看跌期权的定价，如果到期价格下跌，则有 37% 的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bace0981b0d5f72264fe230de94b232a\" tg-width=\"1727\" tg-height=\"773\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <h2>The Bottom Line </h2> Over the past month, Best Buy shares have fallen 29.6%. The share price decrease and current downward trend was kick started by a 12% single day earnings-based share decline. Option traders appear to be positioned for the Best Buy share price to continue to fall in the near term. That's because the Best Buy put option open interest percentage is declining less rapidly than the call option open interest percentage, and the put call ratio has recently risen an alarming amount.</p><p><blockquote><h2>底线</h2>过去一个月，百思买股价下跌了 29.6%。股价下跌和当前的下跌趋势是由基于单日收益的股价下跌 12% 引发的。期权交易员似乎预计百思买股价将在短期内继续下跌。这是因为百思买看跌期权未平仓合约百分比的下降速度低于看涨期权期权未平仓合约百分比，而且看跌看涨期权比率最近上升了惊人的幅度。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/best-buy-option-traders-see-slide-continuing-5214215\">Investopedia</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4076":"电脑与电子产品零售","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4567":"ESG概念","BBY":"百思买"},"source_url":"https://www.investopedia.com/best-buy-option-traders-see-slide-continuing-5214215","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2193111443","content_text":"Key Takeaways\n\nBest Buy stock remains in a sharp downward trend.\nRecent trading volumes appear bullish at first glance, but finer aspects of recent changes to the open interest appear bearish.\nThe share price for Best Buy remains well below its 20-day moving average.\nVolatility-based support and resistance levels allow for a larger move to the upside.\n\nThe share price of Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) has remained in a downward trend since the company fell 12% the day after its latest earnings report was released in late November. Despite beating analyst expectations, investors bid down the share prices of Best Buy as analysts expressed fear toward consumer demand and high supply chain costs. Recent market volatility has not provided a foundation on which Best Buy stock can pivot to the upside.\nAt first glance, it appears thatr option traders are positioned for the Best Buy share price to reverse its recent downward trend. However, a deeper dive into the finer aspects of the Best Buy open interest paints a clearer picture. In addition, aspects of the Best Buy implied volatility suggest that the market is predicting further downside in the near term for Best Buy.\nWhereas recent trading volumes for Best Buy appear bullish at first glance, a more in-depth analysis of recent open interest changes and the impact of implied volatility suggests that option traders are buying put options and selling calls.\nChart watchers can gain valuable insight into the overall sentiment toward Best Buy stock by combining an assessment of recent option activity with technical analysis of share price activity. The chart below depicts the recent price action for the Best Buy share price as of Tuesday, Dec 21.\n\n Chart Analysis \nThe chart illustrates the share price action of Best Buy over the course of the past three months. Each candle represents one trading day. The blue lines are a historical volatility range formed by 20-day Keltner Channel indicators, which depict price levels that represent a multiple of the average true fange (ATR) for Best Buy stock. ATR is a standard tool for illustrating historical volatility over time. The outer bands of the historical volatility range widened after the earnings-based share price drop and appear to be further pushing outwards to the downside as the share price continues to decline.\nFrom the left-hand side of the chart, Best Buy stock was in a mild downward trend, trading below its 20-day moving average. This is highlighted by the red arrow. This trend reversed at the beginning of October. This upward trend is highlighted by the green arrow. This helps to highlight the way that Best Buy stock rose to the extreme highs of the volatility range, topping out with its 52-week high the day before releasing earnings in late November.\nAfter dropping 12% the day after reporting earnings, Best Buy stock has remained in a strong downward trend at the extreme low of the volatility range. This trend is highlighted in blue. It's interesting to note that, at this time, Best Buy stock has failed to trade above its 20-day moving average, even on an intraday basis.\nIn the past month, the highest Best Buy share price was $141.97, a 52-week high, in late November. This price is highlighted by the green balloon. Conversely, the lower share price during this time was $94.54 in mid-December, highlighted by the red balloon.\nTip\nThe Keltner Channel indicator displays a set of semi-parallel lines based on a 20-day simple moving average and an upper and lower line. Because the upper lines are drawn by adding a multiple of ATR to the average and the lower lines are drawn by subtracting a multiple of ATR from the average price, this channel indicator makes for an excellent visualization tool when charting historical volatility.\n Option Analysis \nRecent trading volumes of Best Buy options greatly favor calls over puts. On Tuesday, Dec. 21, over 8,000 calls were traded compared to 4,100 puts. This is nearly double the number of calls than puts, which, at first glance, appears bullish. However, trading volumes alone only tell one part of the story.\nAn analysis of a stock's open interest can provide greater context into the sentiment of option traders. The current open interest for Best Buy features 75,000 calls against 82,000 puts. While recent trading volumes are incredibly bullish, these open interest figures illustrate a more moderate view of Best Buy's share price from option traders. However, much like trading volumes, open interest figures require further analysis to provide deeper insights into option trader sentiment.\nFor Jan. 21, the next monthly option expiration date, there are a greater number of put options in the open interest than calls. The single option with the highest open interest is the $90 put with 4,400. This represents 7% downside to the current share price of Best Buy.\nConsidering at-the-money options and one strike in either direction up or down the option chain, there are more than 2.5-to-1 puts than calls in the open interest for Jan. 21. This is important to consider, as these strikes perhaps reflect more realistic price action based on current share prices rather than far out-of-the-money options, which may have numbers skewed by speculators and option sellers collecting premium. The current number, with far more puts than calls, expresses a bearish sentiment.\nWhile the open interest is slightly bearish in total, option open interest as a whole is noticeably down. Over the past five days, total open interest has decreased 34%. While the open interest of puts has decreased by 22%, the call open interest has declined by 43% over this time period. This means that, while fewer option traders are willing to hold Best Buy options, more traders are taking positions with put options than calls. This is reflected in the put/call ratio, which has risen 36% in the past five days.\nA key measure for option trader sentiment in open interest is implied volatility. For options expiring Jan. 21, implied volatility suggests that traders are selling calls and buying puts. That's because for call options, the open interest is rising while implied volatility is falling, suggesting that traders are selling more contracts on short positions in the option. Conversely, for put options, open interest is rising while implied volatility is also rising, indicating that traders are adding to long positions in the option.\nWhile considering implied volatility, it is helpful to understand a concept known as volatility skew. Volatility skew is a measure of market implied volatility to both the upside and the downside, and the comparison of how they relate to each other. Current implied volatility skew is very bearish toward Best Buy. That's because the implied volatility for downside puts is greatly increasing relative to upside calls, which suggests that the market is pricing in a larger fear of a downside move for Best Buy. This skew can also be seen visually by the expanding volatility bands on the chart.\nThe chart below illustrates at-the-money options expiring Jan. 21. The green box represents the pricing that call option sellers are offering and it implies a 38% probability that Best Buy shares will close inside this range or higher by expiration. The red box illustrates the pricing for puts, with a 37% chance if prices go lower by expiration.\n\nThe Bottom Line \nOver the past month, Best Buy shares have fallen 29.6%. The share price decrease and current downward trend was kick started by a 12% single day earnings-based share decline. Option traders appear to be positioned for the Best Buy share price to continue to fall in the near term. That's because the Best Buy put option open interest percentage is declining less rapidly than the call option open interest percentage, and the put call ratio has recently risen an alarming amount.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691427630,"gmtCreate":1640230863122,"gmtModify":1640230863122,"author":{"id":"4094701214252590","authorId":"4094701214252590","name":"tabbicatty","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c37c880fb1db837d1d1d4d14150f23ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094701214252590","authorIdStr":"4094701214252590"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691427630","repostId":"1184389618","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184389618","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640230223,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1184389618?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Grab Stock May Be Down But It Isn’t Out<blockquote>Grab 股票可能会下跌，但还没有下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184389618","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"When Southeast Asian ride-hailing and delivery company Grab Holdings(NASDAQ:GRAB) completed a revers","content":"<p><div> When Southeast Asian ride-hailing and delivery company Grab Holdings(NASDAQ:GRAB) completed a reverse merger with special purpose acquisition company Altimeter Growth Corp. in early December it made ...</p><p><blockquote><div>当东南亚打车和送货公司Grab Holdings（纳斯达克股票代码：GRAB）在12月初完成与特殊目的收购公司Altimeter Growth Corp.的反向合并时，它……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/grab-stock-may-be-down-but-it-isnt-out/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/grab-stock-may-be-down-but-it-isnt-out/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grab Stock May Be Down But It Isn’t Out<blockquote>Grab 股票可能会下跌，但还没有下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab Stock May Be Down But It Isn’t Out<blockquote>Grab 股票可能会下跌，但还没有下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 11:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> When Southeast Asian ride-hailing and delivery company Grab Holdings(NASDAQ:GRAB) completed a reverse merger with special purpose acquisition company Altimeter Growth Corp. in early December it made ...</p><p><blockquote><div>当东南亚打车和送货公司Grab Holdings（纳斯达克股票代码：GRAB）在12月初完成与特殊目的收购公司Altimeter Growth Corp.的反向合并时，它……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/grab-stock-may-be-down-but-it-isnt-out/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/grab-stock-may-be-down-but-it-isnt-out/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/grab-stock-may-be-down-but-it-isnt-out/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GRAB":"Grab Holdings"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/grab-stock-may-be-down-but-it-isnt-out/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184389618","content_text":"When Southeast Asian ride-hailing and delivery company Grab Holdings(NASDAQ:GRAB) completed a reverse merger with special purpose acquisition company Altimeter Growth Corp. in early December it made history as the largest company to go public via a SPAC merger. Yet, this didn’t stop GRAB stock from plummeting more than 20% on the day of the merger.\nSince then, investors have continued to give GRAB stock the cold shoulder, with shares falling another 16% to trade at $7.34 at the time of this writing.\nNow, before you write off an investment in Grab Holdings, consider that the company is still in the early innings and let’s consider where GRAB stock could go from here.\nWhat’s Behind Grab’s Cool Reception?\nGrab is the largest ride-hailing and delivery company in Southeast Asia, with operations in Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam and serving more than 187 million users.\nThere are a number of plausible explanations for why GRAB stock has not been well-received by investors.\nFor starters, growth estimates for the Southeast Asian region have been lowered recently primarily due to the coronavirus pandemic. In September, the Asian Development Bank dropped its 2021 growth forecast for the region to 3.1% from 4.4% previously.\nWidespread lockdowns in the region due to recurring waves of COVID-19 have hurt demand for Grab’s ride-hailing services and weighed on revenue despite an increase in food-delivery volumes.\nGrab reported its third-quarter results on Nov. 11. Revenue fell 9% year over year to $157 million, with the company citing “a decline in mobility due to the severe lockdowns in Vietnam.” Falling revenue is obviously not something investors want to see, especially from a company that has yet to turn a profit.\nYet, the company did report a 32% year-over-year increase in gross merchandise value, with the dollar value of transactions from Grab’s services rising to $4.04 billion thanks to strength in the company’s deliveries segment.\nThere’s Reason for Optimism\nThe deal to go public through the merger with Altimeter Growth Corp. valued Grab at close to $40 billion, which as I mentioned, was a record. The fact that three weeks later GRAB stock has a market cap of about $27.5 billion tells us that perhaps things got a bit too heated. However, there is reason for optimism.\nThe ride-hailing platform has secured the backing of significant players across related industries, including DiDi Global(NYSE:DIDI),Toyota(NYSE:TM) and SoftBank’s(OTCMKTS:SFTBY) Vision Fund.\nGrab Holdings also has some positive catalysts on the horizon. For example, the company recently announced that it will be purchasing Jaya Grocer, a premium supermarket chain in Malaysia.\nThis acquisition fits nicely with the ride-hailing and delivery business model the company seeks to expand. Management refers to the model as a “superapp” focus, whereby users can access multiple services in a single, convenient location.\nThe Bottom Line on GRAB Stock\nI can’t say Grab Holdings can immediately turn things around. But its potential in the burgeoning Southeast Asian market means it remains relevant and has a long runway.\nOf the six analysts following GRAB stock, two rate it a “buy” and there are no “sell” ratings,according to The Wall Street Journal. Meanwhile, the consensus price target stands at $12.25, which represents upside of 67% from current levels.\nGRAB stock is very cheap now, so it’s hardly a dangerous speculative play. There’s a good argument to be made for investing now and hoping that the company continues to expand its footprint. Profitability should follow.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GRAB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691427173,"gmtCreate":1640230852445,"gmtModify":1640230852445,"author":{"id":"4094701214252590","authorId":"4094701214252590","name":"tabbicatty","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c37c880fb1db837d1d1d4d14150f23ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094701214252590","authorIdStr":"4094701214252590"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691427173","repostId":"1164467804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164467804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640230809,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1164467804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164467804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.Apple Inc. stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. U","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.</li>  <li>This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.</li>  <li>However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.</li>  <li>In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价今年已上涨 34%，远远超过纳斯达克 100 指数。</li><li>这导致一些人说该股处于泡沫中，因为其价格正在快速上涨。</li><li>然而，苹果的股价涨幅与收入增长大致一致，实际上低于最近一个季度的每股收益增长。</li><li>在本文中，我将阐述一个看好苹果的论点，认为它拥有宽阔的护城河，将推动未来的增长和盈利能力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Inc.</b>(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&amp;P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司。</b>(AAPL) 股票在 2021 年表现强劲。今年上涨了 35%，表现稳步优于纳斯达克 100 指数和标普500指数。苹果的 2021 年是该公司连续多年获胜的最新一年，这表明一只股票永远不会太大，无法战胜市场。</blockquote></p><p> With that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，仍有不少人认为苹果的连胜需要修正。最近几周，我们看到大量文章声称 AAPL 被高估，标题如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>“苹果股票现在是一个泡沫”。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“为什么苹果股票可能是一个随时可能破裂的泡沫”。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“卖掉苹果？这位专家为何认为苹果股价下跌12%”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Not all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at&nbsp;TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有这些文章都是明确的悲观。少数人提到了积极的一面和消极的一面。但总的来说，认为苹果是一个泡沫，或者至少被高估的观点正在变得普遍。如果你看看 TipRanks 的情绪图，就会发现对苹果股票的负面情绪明显。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8357bc3eaf626336dbf12b2ff1f410\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TipRanks’ sentiment chart</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TipRanks 的情绪图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward&nbsp;<b>Meta Platforms</b>(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将投资者对苹果的看跌情绪与对<b>元平台</b>（脸书）。Meta 是一家因违反反垄断规定而被起诉并每天受到媒体攻击的公司，其情绪得分近乎完美。因此，没有特殊的科技诅咒可以保证对该行业个股的负面情绪。苹果的情绪问题确实是它自己的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc8cf3f8fc200c2b7a9c85e69cc9f2\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Which begs the question:</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Why?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>为什么？</i></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage –&nbsp;<b>Nintendo</b>(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一只护城河宽阔的股票，是少数几家同时为大多数用户控制硬件和软件的科技公司之一。许多公司都试图复制苹果通过整合硬件和应用程序来实现收入最大化的战略，但成功的公司寥寥无几。如果你想要IOS或Mac OS体验，你需要一部iPhone或Mac。数十亿人想要这些体验，以至于愿意为苹果的产品支付高价。很少有其他科技公司拥有这种优势——<b>任天堂</b>（OTCPK：NTDOY）如果你把游戏算作技术，这是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> This makes Apple arguably a&nbsp;wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated&nbsp;Apple ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>这使得苹果可以说是一只宽护城河股票。你需要苹果硬件来运行苹果软件，而人们喜欢苹果软件。这使得苹果对某些软件体验集合拥有了 “垄断权”。它并不垄断任何特定的设备类别，但它是唯一一家能够提供集成苹果生态系统的公司。</blockquote></p><p> This advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the&nbsp;fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这一优势为苹果股东带来了红利——无论是象征性的还是字面上的。按市值计算，苹果是全球最大的公司，按收入计算，是第四大公司。近年来，其收入增长率有所放缓，但某些细分市场（如手表和服务）的增长速度比以往任何时候都快。因此，苹果似乎仍有巨大的盈利能力和增长潜力。因此，我将在本文中阐述一个看涨苹果的论点，认为其坚实的经济护城河为其股票未来的升值提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments&nbsp;and entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>了解苹果最重要的事情之一是它的竞争地位。该公司在各种各样的不同市场开展业务，因此很难将其业务局限于 “技术 ”之外。从技术上讲，该公司的 SIC 代码（行业分类）是 7372，表示 “预打包软件”。然而，这并没有反映苹果业务活动的全部范围，因为它还涉及硬件、半导体、支付和娱乐等领域。</blockquote></p><p> Some of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最值得关注的竞争对手包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Samsung</b>(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>三星</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）-智能手机。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Huawei</b>- smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>华为</b>-智能手机。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>Alphabet</b>智能手机、笔记本电脑和软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT) - laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>微软</b>（MSFT）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Dell</b>(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>戴尔</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）- 笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Adobe</b>(ADBE) - creative software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>土坯</b>（ADBE）-创意软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li>And many more.</p><p><blockquote><li>还有更多。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> A comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.</p><p><blockquote>由于该公司在许多不同的垂直领域开展业务，因此不可能列出苹果竞争对手的全面名单。除了上面所有的名字，苹果可以说是在与大型半导体公司竞争，因为它销售带有苹果芯片的手机和笔记本电脑。苹果是最全面的科技公司之一，拥有庞大的硬件、软件和服务阵容，与数十家公司进行默契竞争。</blockquote></p><p> How is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to&nbsp;Counterpoint Research&nbsp;and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果在其竞争的行业中表现如何？根据 Counterpoint Research 和 Statista 的数据，苹果的市场份额包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Smartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>智能手机：美国47%，全球14%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Laptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>笔记本电脑：美国15%，全球7.6%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Smartwatches: over 50% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>智能手表：全球超过50%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Tablets: 35% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>平板电脑：全球35%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> On the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and&nbsp;sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，苹果在其大部分市场都处于第一或第二的位置。它在智能手机销量上落后于三星，但在手表和平板电脑销量上领先。这是一个相当不错的市场地位。它会随着时间的推移而增长。苹果的一些产品类别仍然相当新。该公司最近才进军智能手表领域，该类别的销售额正以 50% 的速度增长。苹果最近因增长放缓而受到批评，但该公司产品线中的某些产品增长速度比以往任何时候都快。这为未来的强劲增长提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The M1 Chip and Apple Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>M1芯片和苹果服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:</p><p><blockquote>说到未来的增长，苹果最有前途的两个类别值得探讨：</blockquote></p><p> <i>The M1 Chip and Apple Services.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>M1芯片和苹果服务。</i></blockquote></p><p> The M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:</p><p><blockquote>M1芯片（现在真的是M1系列芯片）是苹果基于ARM架构设计的一款新芯片。基本配置拥有：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>An 8-core CPU.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>8核CPU。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>A 7-core GPU.</p><p><blockquote><li>7核GPU。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).</p><p><blockquote><li>8或16千兆字节的RAM（物理内置于芯片中）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>5nm process.</p><p><blockquote><li>5nm工艺。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>16 billion transistors.</p><p><blockquote><li>160亿个晶体管。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>3.2 GHZ max clock rate.</p><p><blockquote><li>3.2 GHZ最大时钟速率。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Incredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless&nbsp;YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.</p><p><blockquote>难以置信的规格。最重要的是，还有两款新机型——M1 Pro和M1 Max——在基础机型的基础上进行了改进。列出这些高端机型的详细规格表会很乏味，但一个令人瞠目结舌的数据是 M1 Max 的 570 亿个晶体管。这与极高端游戏PC中包含的CPU竞争。当然，正如无数YouTube评论者指出的那样，这使得较新的Mac电脑本身可以作为游戏机。苹果已经在笔记本电脑和台式机领域占据了相当大的市场份额，但凭借M1芯片系列，它现在也有机会占领游戏领域。到目前为止，事实证明，这一细分市场对苹果来说难以捉摸。因此，苹果的计算机产品线有很大的加速增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Next up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually&nbsp;lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been&nbsp;flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.</p><p><blockquote>接下来是苹果服务。这是一个广泛的类别，包括流媒体音乐、电影、书籍等。这一类别一直在扩大，并有可能在硬件增长放缓后推动更多增长。在最近一个季度，服务增长实际上落后于产品增长，后者为 25%，而后者为 30%。然而，服务是很有前途的，因为即使在硬件产品达到其总目标市场之后，服务这一类别仍有可能继续增长。经过多年的强劲增长，全球智能手机销量一直持平。在这种环境下，指望苹果的硬件销售额能像过去那样快速增长是不现实的。但通过向现有客户销售更多服务，即使硬件销售不佳，苹果也能继续增长总收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务及估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Now we can turn to Apple’s financials.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们可以看看苹果的财务状况了。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s most recent quarter was a&nbsp;miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最近一个季度的收入和盈利均不佳；然而，从绝对角度来看，结果是强劲的。本季度，苹果实现了：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入 830 亿美元，增长 29%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><li>经营利润273亿美元，增长60%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润205亿美元，增长63%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益为 1.24 美元，上涨 69%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在第四季度报告中报告称，运营产生了 1040 亿美元的 TTM 现金。这比上一年增长了 28%。</blockquote></p><p> These were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。尤其是对于一家成熟的公司来说。苹果是世界上市值最大的公司，但其收入和盈利均高于成长型股票的水平。这一季度并非侥幸。根据 Seeking Alpha Quant 的数据，苹果在上述指标中的五年复合年增长率如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Revenue: 11%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入：11%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Operating income: 12.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>经营利润：12.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Net income: 15.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润：15.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Diluted EPS: 22%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释每股收益：22%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash flow: 10.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>现金流：10.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Again very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:</p><p><blockquote>对于一家成熟的公司来说，这又是非常可靠的。最近一个季度看起来确实好于平均水平，但长期指标仍然非常好。这正是本文论文的核心所在：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a&nbsp;PEG ratio of just 0.43&nbsp;for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.</p><p><blockquote>苹果绝对不是泡沫股。它的估值相当高，因为它的交易价格是市盈率的 30 倍、销售额的 7.7 倍和现金流的 26 倍。但该公司仍有很大的增长潜力。按年复合计算，其盈利增长率为 22%，正如最近一个季度所显示的那样，它还有加速增长的空间。如果同时考虑增长和价值，过去 12 个月的 PEG 比率仅为 0.43。这远非泡沫估值。事实上，它看起来非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> While Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果绝对是一家增长强劲、估值适中的超高利润公司，但其股票并非没有风险。作为一家大型硬件公司，它很容易受到供应链问题和其他冲击。本文概述的看涨论点的一些主要风险和挑战包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Supply chain issues.</b>The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company&nbsp;slashed iPhone production&nbsp;because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>供应链问题。</b>世界目前正在经历芯片短缺，以及各种其他高科技零部件的短缺。这些问题正在影响苹果。就在最近，由于供应链问题，该公司削减了iPhone的产量。就在关键的假期之前。对于像苹果这样依赖现成的原材料供应来保持销售的硬件公司来说，这类问题是一个无处不在的威胁。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Scale.</b>Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>比例。</b>从数学上讲，某件事变得越大，就需要更大的增长来推动与过去相同的百分比增长。如果你开始销售1000美元的小部件，并在第一年卖出一个，那么第二年只要卖出价值2000美元的小部件，你的销售额就会翻一番。然而，如果十年后，你的销售额达到了 3320 亿美元，那么你需要客户在第 11 年拿出 6640 亿美元，才能实现同样的增长。这在数学上是不太可能的。巧合的是，苹果第四季度 830 亿美元的收入年化达到了 3320 亿美元。因此，未来实现增长将更加困难。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Disruption.</b>Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself&nbsp;did this once, to&nbsp;<b>BlackBerry</b>(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&amp;D, you never know where the next threat will come from.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>中断。</b>苹果的商业模式要求其始终处于技术创新的前沿。如果另一家公司推出明显优于 iPhone 的产品，那可能会在一夜之间扼杀苹果的业务。苹果自己也做过一次，<b>黑莓</b>（BB），命运多舛的黑莓智能手机的制造商。科技行业的历史上充满了公司互相吃掉对方的午餐，虽然苹果有数十亿美元用于研发，但你永远不知道下一个威胁会来自哪里。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.</p><p><blockquote>以上是投资者需要牢记的一些非常真实的风险。尤其是供应链风险，非常真实，在几份季度报告中都被列为一个问题。话虽如此，苹果股票拥有令人难以置信的护城河、体面的增长和不合理的估值。这绝对不是一只可以做空的股票。虽然多头实现的收益在未来不会像过去那么好，但它们仍然应该是不错的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 11:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.</li>  <li>This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.</li>  <li>However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.</li>  <li>In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价今年已上涨 34%，远远超过纳斯达克 100 指数。</li><li>这导致一些人说该股处于泡沫中，因为其价格正在快速上涨。</li><li>然而，苹果的股价涨幅与收入增长大致一致，实际上低于最近一个季度的每股收益增长。</li><li>在本文中，我将阐述一个看好苹果的论点，认为它拥有宽阔的护城河，将推动未来的增长和盈利能力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Inc.</b>(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&amp;P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司。</b>(AAPL) 股票在 2021 年表现强劲。今年上涨了 35%，表现稳步优于纳斯达克 100 指数和标普500指数。苹果的 2021 年是该公司连续多年获胜的最新一年，这表明一只股票永远不会太大，无法战胜市场。</blockquote></p><p> With that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，仍有不少人认为苹果的连胜需要修正。最近几周，我们看到大量文章声称 AAPL 被高估，标题如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>“苹果股票现在是一个泡沫”。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“为什么苹果股票可能是一个随时可能破裂的泡沫”。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“卖掉苹果？这位专家为何认为苹果股价下跌12%”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Not all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at&nbsp;TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有这些文章都是明确的悲观。少数人提到了积极的一面和消极的一面。但总的来说，认为苹果是一个泡沫，或者至少被高估的观点正在变得普遍。如果你看看 TipRanks 的情绪图，就会发现对苹果股票的负面情绪明显。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8357bc3eaf626336dbf12b2ff1f410\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TipRanks’ sentiment chart</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TipRanks 的情绪图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward&nbsp;<b>Meta Platforms</b>(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将投资者对苹果的看跌情绪与对<b>元平台</b>（脸书）。Meta 是一家因违反反垄断规定而被起诉并每天受到媒体攻击的公司，其情绪得分近乎完美。因此，没有特殊的科技诅咒可以保证对该行业个股的负面情绪。苹果的情绪问题确实是它自己的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc8cf3f8fc200c2b7a9c85e69cc9f2\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Which begs the question:</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Why?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>为什么？</i></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage –&nbsp;<b>Nintendo</b>(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一只护城河宽阔的股票，是少数几家同时为大多数用户控制硬件和软件的科技公司之一。许多公司都试图复制苹果通过整合硬件和应用程序来实现收入最大化的战略，但成功的公司寥寥无几。如果你想要IOS或Mac OS体验，你需要一部iPhone或Mac。数十亿人想要这些体验，以至于愿意为苹果的产品支付高价。很少有其他科技公司拥有这种优势——<b>任天堂</b>（OTCPK：NTDOY）如果你把游戏算作技术，这是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> This makes Apple arguably a&nbsp;wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated&nbsp;Apple ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>这使得苹果可以说是一只宽护城河股票。你需要苹果硬件来运行苹果软件，而人们喜欢苹果软件。这使得苹果对某些软件体验集合拥有了 “垄断权”。它并不垄断任何特定的设备类别，但它是唯一一家能够提供集成苹果生态系统的公司。</blockquote></p><p> This advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the&nbsp;fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这一优势为苹果股东带来了红利——无论是象征性的还是字面上的。按市值计算，苹果是全球最大的公司，按收入计算，是第四大公司。近年来，其收入增长率有所放缓，但某些细分市场（如手表和服务）的增长速度比以往任何时候都快。因此，苹果似乎仍有巨大的盈利能力和增长潜力。因此，我将在本文中阐述一个看涨苹果的论点，认为其坚实的经济护城河为其股票未来的升值提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments&nbsp;and entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>了解苹果最重要的事情之一是它的竞争地位。该公司在各种各样的不同市场开展业务，因此很难将其业务局限于 “技术 ”之外。从技术上讲，该公司的 SIC 代码（行业分类）是 7372，表示 “预打包软件”。然而，这并没有反映苹果业务活动的全部范围，因为它还涉及硬件、半导体、支付和娱乐等领域。</blockquote></p><p> Some of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最值得关注的竞争对手包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Samsung</b>(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>三星</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）-智能手机。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Huawei</b>- smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>华为</b>-智能手机。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>Alphabet</b>智能手机、笔记本电脑和软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT) - laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>微软</b>（MSFT）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Dell</b>(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>戴尔</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）- 笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Adobe</b>(ADBE) - creative software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>土坯</b>（ADBE）-创意软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li>And many more.</p><p><blockquote><li>还有更多。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> A comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.</p><p><blockquote>由于该公司在许多不同的垂直领域开展业务，因此不可能列出苹果竞争对手的全面名单。除了上面所有的名字，苹果可以说是在与大型半导体公司竞争，因为它销售带有苹果芯片的手机和笔记本电脑。苹果是最全面的科技公司之一，拥有庞大的硬件、软件和服务阵容，与数十家公司进行默契竞争。</blockquote></p><p> How is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to&nbsp;Counterpoint Research&nbsp;and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果在其竞争的行业中表现如何？根据 Counterpoint Research 和 Statista 的数据，苹果的市场份额包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Smartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>智能手机：美国47%，全球14%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Laptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>笔记本电脑：美国15%，全球7.6%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Smartwatches: over 50% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>智能手表：全球超过50%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Tablets: 35% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>平板电脑：全球35%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> On the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and&nbsp;sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，苹果在其大部分市场都处于第一或第二的位置。它在智能手机销量上落后于三星，但在手表和平板电脑销量上领先。这是一个相当不错的市场地位。它会随着时间的推移而增长。苹果的一些产品类别仍然相当新。该公司最近才进军智能手表领域，该类别的销售额正以 50% 的速度增长。苹果最近因增长放缓而受到批评，但该公司产品线中的某些产品增长速度比以往任何时候都快。这为未来的强劲增长提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The M1 Chip and Apple Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>M1芯片和苹果服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:</p><p><blockquote>说到未来的增长，苹果最有前途的两个类别值得探讨：</blockquote></p><p> <i>The M1 Chip and Apple Services.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>M1芯片和苹果服务。</i></blockquote></p><p> The M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:</p><p><blockquote>M1芯片（现在真的是M1系列芯片）是苹果基于ARM架构设计的一款新芯片。基本配置拥有：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>An 8-core CPU.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>8核CPU。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>A 7-core GPU.</p><p><blockquote><li>7核GPU。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).</p><p><blockquote><li>8或16千兆字节的RAM（物理内置于芯片中）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>5nm process.</p><p><blockquote><li>5nm工艺。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>16 billion transistors.</p><p><blockquote><li>160亿个晶体管。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>3.2 GHZ max clock rate.</p><p><blockquote><li>3.2 GHZ最大时钟速率。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Incredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless&nbsp;YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.</p><p><blockquote>难以置信的规格。最重要的是，还有两款新机型——M1 Pro和M1 Max——在基础机型的基础上进行了改进。列出这些高端机型的详细规格表会很乏味，但一个令人瞠目结舌的数据是 M1 Max 的 570 亿个晶体管。这与极高端游戏PC中包含的CPU竞争。当然，正如无数YouTube评论者指出的那样，这使得较新的Mac电脑本身可以作为游戏机。苹果已经在笔记本电脑和台式机领域占据了相当大的市场份额，但凭借M1芯片系列，它现在也有机会占领游戏领域。到目前为止，事实证明，这一细分市场对苹果来说难以捉摸。因此，苹果的计算机产品线有很大的加速增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Next up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually&nbsp;lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been&nbsp;flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.</p><p><blockquote>接下来是苹果服务。这是一个广泛的类别，包括流媒体音乐、电影、书籍等。这一类别一直在扩大，并有可能在硬件增长放缓后推动更多增长。在最近一个季度，服务增长实际上落后于产品增长，后者为 25%，而后者为 30%。然而，服务是很有前途的，因为即使在硬件产品达到其总目标市场之后，服务这一类别仍有可能继续增长。经过多年的强劲增长，全球智能手机销量一直持平。在这种环境下，指望苹果的硬件销售额能像过去那样快速增长是不现实的。但通过向现有客户销售更多服务，即使硬件销售不佳，苹果也能继续增长总收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务及估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Now we can turn to Apple’s financials.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们可以看看苹果的财务状况了。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s most recent quarter was a&nbsp;miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最近一个季度的收入和盈利均不佳；然而，从绝对角度来看，结果是强劲的。本季度，苹果实现了：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入 830 亿美元，增长 29%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><li>经营利润273亿美元，增长60%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润205亿美元，增长63%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益为 1.24 美元，上涨 69%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在第四季度报告中报告称，运营产生了 1040 亿美元的 TTM 现金。这比上一年增长了 28%。</blockquote></p><p> These were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。尤其是对于一家成熟的公司来说。苹果是世界上市值最大的公司，但其收入和盈利均高于成长型股票的水平。这一季度并非侥幸。根据 Seeking Alpha Quant 的数据，苹果在上述指标中的五年复合年增长率如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Revenue: 11%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入：11%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Operating income: 12.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>经营利润：12.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Net income: 15.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润：15.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Diluted EPS: 22%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释每股收益：22%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash flow: 10.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>现金流：10.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Again very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:</p><p><blockquote>对于一家成熟的公司来说，这又是非常可靠的。最近一个季度看起来确实好于平均水平，但长期指标仍然非常好。这正是本文论文的核心所在：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a&nbsp;PEG ratio of just 0.43&nbsp;for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.</p><p><blockquote>苹果绝对不是泡沫股。它的估值相当高，因为它的交易价格是市盈率的 30 倍、销售额的 7.7 倍和现金流的 26 倍。但该公司仍有很大的增长潜力。按年复合计算，其盈利增长率为 22%，正如最近一个季度所显示的那样，它还有加速增长的空间。如果同时考虑增长和价值，过去 12 个月的 PEG 比率仅为 0.43。这远非泡沫估值。事实上，它看起来非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> While Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果绝对是一家增长强劲、估值适中的超高利润公司，但其股票并非没有风险。作为一家大型硬件公司，它很容易受到供应链问题和其他冲击。本文概述的看涨论点的一些主要风险和挑战包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Supply chain issues.</b>The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company&nbsp;slashed iPhone production&nbsp;because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>供应链问题。</b>世界目前正在经历芯片短缺，以及各种其他高科技零部件的短缺。这些问题正在影响苹果。就在最近，由于供应链问题，该公司削减了iPhone的产量。就在关键的假期之前。对于像苹果这样依赖现成的原材料供应来保持销售的硬件公司来说，这类问题是一个无处不在的威胁。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Scale.</b>Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>比例。</b>从数学上讲，某件事变得越大，就需要更大的增长来推动与过去相同的百分比增长。如果你开始销售1000美元的小部件，并在第一年卖出一个，那么第二年只要卖出价值2000美元的小部件，你的销售额就会翻一番。然而，如果十年后，你的销售额达到了 3320 亿美元，那么你需要客户在第 11 年拿出 6640 亿美元，才能实现同样的增长。这在数学上是不太可能的。巧合的是，苹果第四季度 830 亿美元的收入年化达到了 3320 亿美元。因此，未来实现增长将更加困难。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Disruption.</b>Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself&nbsp;did this once, to&nbsp;<b>BlackBerry</b>(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&amp;D, you never know where the next threat will come from.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>中断。</b>苹果的商业模式要求其始终处于技术创新的前沿。如果另一家公司推出明显优于 iPhone 的产品，那可能会在一夜之间扼杀苹果的业务。苹果自己也做过一次，<b>黑莓</b>（BB），命运多舛的黑莓智能手机的制造商。科技行业的历史上充满了公司互相吃掉对方的午餐，虽然苹果有数十亿美元用于研发，但你永远不知道下一个威胁会来自哪里。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.</p><p><blockquote>以上是投资者需要牢记的一些非常真实的风险。尤其是供应链风险，非常真实，在几份季度报告中都被列为一个问题。话虽如此，苹果股票拥有令人难以置信的护城河、体面的增长和不合理的估值。这绝对不是一只可以做空的股票。虽然多头实现的收益在未来不会像过去那么好，但它们仍然应该是不错的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164467804","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.\nThis has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.\nHowever, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.\nIn this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nApple Inc.(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.\nWith that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:\n\n“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”\n“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”\n“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”\n\nNot all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.\nSource: TipRanks’ sentiment chart\nThe bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward Meta Platforms(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.\n\nWhich begs the question:\nWhy?\nApple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage – Nintendo(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.\nThis makes Apple arguably a wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated Apple ecosystem.\nThis advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.\nCompetitive Landscape\nOne of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments and entertainment.\nSome of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:\n\nSamsung(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.\nHuawei- smartphones.\nAlphabet(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.\nMicrosoft(MSFT) - laptops.\nDell(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.\nAdobe(ADBE) - creative software.\nAnd many more.\n\nA comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.\nHow is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to Counterpoint Research and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:\n\nSmartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.\nLaptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.\nSmartwatches: over 50% globally.\nTablets: 35% globally.\n\nOn the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services\nSpeaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services.\nThe M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:\n\nAn 8-core CPU.\nA 7-core GPU.\n8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).\n5nm process.\n16 billion transistors.\n3.2 GHZ max clock rate.\n\nIncredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.\nNext up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.\nFinancials and Valuation\nNow we can turn to Apple’s financials.\nApple’s most recent quarter was a miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:\n\n$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.\n$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.\n$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.\n$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.\n\nThe company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.\nThese were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:\n\nRevenue: 11%.\nOperating income: 12.7%.\nNet income: 15.7%.\nDiluted EPS: 22%.\nCash flow: 10.7%.\n\nAgain very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:\nApple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a PEG ratio of just 0.43 for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.\nRisks and Challenges\nWhile Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:\n\nSupply chain issues.The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company slashed iPhone production because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.\nScale.Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.\nDisruption.Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself did this once, to BlackBerry(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&D, you never know where the next threat will come from.\n\nThe above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691427982,"gmtCreate":1640230832756,"gmtModify":1640230832756,"author":{"id":"4094701214252590","authorId":"4094701214252590","name":"tabbicatty","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c37c880fb1db837d1d1d4d14150f23ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4094701214252590","authorIdStr":"4094701214252590"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691427982","repostId":"2193113147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":691427630,"gmtCreate":1640230863122,"gmtModify":1640230863122,"author":{"id":"4094701214252590","authorId":"4094701214252590","name":"tabbicatty","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c37c880fb1db837d1d1d4d14150f23ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094701214252590","idStr":"4094701214252590"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691427630","repostId":"1184389618","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184389618","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640230223,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1184389618?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 11:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Grab Stock May Be Down But It Isn’t Out<blockquote>Grab 股票可能会下跌，但还没有下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184389618","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"When Southeast Asian ride-hailing and delivery company Grab Holdings(NASDAQ:GRAB) completed a revers","content":"<p><div> When Southeast Asian ride-hailing and delivery company Grab Holdings(NASDAQ:GRAB) completed a reverse merger with special purpose acquisition company Altimeter Growth Corp. in early December it made ...</p><p><blockquote><div>当东南亚打车和送货公司Grab Holdings（纳斯达克股票代码：GRAB）在12月初完成与特殊目的收购公司Altimeter Growth Corp.的反向合并时，它……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/grab-stock-may-be-down-but-it-isnt-out/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/grab-stock-may-be-down-but-it-isnt-out/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Grab Stock May Be Down But It Isn’t Out<blockquote>Grab 股票可能会下跌，但还没有下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGrab Stock May Be Down But It Isn’t Out<blockquote>Grab 股票可能会下跌，但还没有下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 11:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> When Southeast Asian ride-hailing and delivery company Grab Holdings(NASDAQ:GRAB) completed a reverse merger with special purpose acquisition company Altimeter Growth Corp. in early December it made ...</p><p><blockquote><div>当东南亚打车和送货公司Grab Holdings（纳斯达克股票代码：GRAB）在12月初完成与特殊目的收购公司Altimeter Growth Corp.的反向合并时，它……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/grab-stock-may-be-down-but-it-isnt-out/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/grab-stock-may-be-down-but-it-isnt-out/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/grab-stock-may-be-down-but-it-isnt-out/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GRAB":"Grab Holdings"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/grab-stock-may-be-down-but-it-isnt-out/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184389618","content_text":"When Southeast Asian ride-hailing and delivery company Grab Holdings(NASDAQ:GRAB) completed a reverse merger with special purpose acquisition company Altimeter Growth Corp. in early December it made history as the largest company to go public via a SPAC merger. Yet, this didn’t stop GRAB stock from plummeting more than 20% on the day of the merger.\nSince then, investors have continued to give GRAB stock the cold shoulder, with shares falling another 16% to trade at $7.34 at the time of this writing.\nNow, before you write off an investment in Grab Holdings, consider that the company is still in the early innings and let’s consider where GRAB stock could go from here.\nWhat’s Behind Grab’s Cool Reception?\nGrab is the largest ride-hailing and delivery company in Southeast Asia, with operations in Singapore, Malaysia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam and serving more than 187 million users.\nThere are a number of plausible explanations for why GRAB stock has not been well-received by investors.\nFor starters, growth estimates for the Southeast Asian region have been lowered recently primarily due to the coronavirus pandemic. In September, the Asian Development Bank dropped its 2021 growth forecast for the region to 3.1% from 4.4% previously.\nWidespread lockdowns in the region due to recurring waves of COVID-19 have hurt demand for Grab’s ride-hailing services and weighed on revenue despite an increase in food-delivery volumes.\nGrab reported its third-quarter results on Nov. 11. Revenue fell 9% year over year to $157 million, with the company citing “a decline in mobility due to the severe lockdowns in Vietnam.” Falling revenue is obviously not something investors want to see, especially from a company that has yet to turn a profit.\nYet, the company did report a 32% year-over-year increase in gross merchandise value, with the dollar value of transactions from Grab’s services rising to $4.04 billion thanks to strength in the company’s deliveries segment.\nThere’s Reason for Optimism\nThe deal to go public through the merger with Altimeter Growth Corp. valued Grab at close to $40 billion, which as I mentioned, was a record. The fact that three weeks later GRAB stock has a market cap of about $27.5 billion tells us that perhaps things got a bit too heated. However, there is reason for optimism.\nThe ride-hailing platform has secured the backing of significant players across related industries, including DiDi Global(NYSE:DIDI),Toyota(NYSE:TM) and SoftBank’s(OTCMKTS:SFTBY) Vision Fund.\nGrab Holdings also has some positive catalysts on the horizon. For example, the company recently announced that it will be purchasing Jaya Grocer, a premium supermarket chain in Malaysia.\nThis acquisition fits nicely with the ride-hailing and delivery business model the company seeks to expand. Management refers to the model as a “superapp” focus, whereby users can access multiple services in a single, convenient location.\nThe Bottom Line on GRAB Stock\nI can’t say Grab Holdings can immediately turn things around. But its potential in the burgeoning Southeast Asian market means it remains relevant and has a long runway.\nOf the six analysts following GRAB stock, two rate it a “buy” and there are no “sell” ratings,according to The Wall Street Journal. Meanwhile, the consensus price target stands at $12.25, which represents upside of 67% from current levels.\nGRAB stock is very cheap now, so it’s hardly a dangerous speculative play. There’s a good argument to be made for investing now and hoping that the company continues to expand its footprint. Profitability should follow.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GRAB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691427212,"gmtCreate":1640230874130,"gmtModify":1640230874130,"author":{"id":"4094701214252590","authorId":"4094701214252590","name":"tabbicatty","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c37c880fb1db837d1d1d4d14150f23ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094701214252590","idStr":"4094701214252590"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691427212","repostId":"2193111443","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2193111443","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640229918,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2193111443?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 11:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Best Buy Option Traders See Slide Continuing<blockquote>百思买期权交易者看到下滑仍在继续</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2193111443","media":"Investopedia","summary":"Put/call ratio climbing rapidly","content":"<p><h3>Key Takeaways</h3> <ul>  <li>Best Buy stock remains in a sharp downward trend.</li>  <li>Recent trading volumes appear bullish at first glance, but finer aspects of recent changes to the open interest appear bearish.</li>  <li>The share price for Best Buy remains well below its 20-day moving average.</li>  <li>Volatility-based support and resistance levels allow for a larger move to the upside.</li> </ul> The share price of Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) has remained in a downward trend since the company fell 12% the day after its latest earnings report was released in late November. Despite beating analyst expectations, investors bid down the share prices of Best Buy as analysts expressed fear toward consumer demand and high supply chain costs. Recent market volatility has not provided a foundation on which Best Buy stock can pivot to the upside.</p><p><blockquote><h3>主要要点</h3><ul><li>百思买股票仍处于大幅下跌趋势。</li><li>最近的交易量乍一看似乎是看涨的，但最近未平仓合约变化的细微方面似乎是看跌的。</li><li>百思买的股价仍远低于 20 天移动平均线。</li><li>基于波动性的支撑位和阻力位允许更大的上行。</li></ul>Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) 的股价自 11 月下旬发布最新收益报告后的第二天下跌 12% 以来一直处于下跌趋势。尽管超出分析师预期，但由于分析师对消费者需求和高供应链成本表示担忧，投资者仍下调了百思买的股价。最近的市场波动并没有为百思买股票的上涨提供基础。</blockquote></p><p> At first glance, it appears thatr option traders are positioned for the Best Buy share price to reverse its recent downward trend. However, a deeper dive into the finer aspects of the Best Buy open interest paints a clearer picture. In addition, aspects of the Best Buy implied volatility suggest that the market is predicting further downside in the near term for Best Buy.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，期权交易者似乎准备让百思买股价扭转近期的下跌趋势。然而，深入研究百思买未平仓合约的细节会描绘出一幅更清晰的画面。此外，百思买隐含波动性的各个方面表明，市场预测百思买在短期内将进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Whereas recent trading volumes for Best Buy appear bullish at first glance, a more in-depth analysis of recent open interest changes and the impact of implied volatility suggests that option traders are buying put options and selling calls.</p><p><blockquote>尽管百思买最近的交易量乍一看似乎看涨，但对最近未平仓合约变化和隐含波动性影响的更深入分析表明，期权交易者正在购买看跌期权并出售评级。</blockquote></p><p> Chart watchers can gain valuable insight into the overall sentiment toward Best Buy stock by combining an assessment of recent option activity with technical analysis of share price activity. The chart below depicts the recent price action for the Best Buy share price as of Tuesday, Dec 21.</p><p><blockquote>图表观察者可以通过将近期期权活动的评估与股价活动的技术分析相结合，获得对百思买股票整体情绪的宝贵见解。下图描述了截至 12 月 21 日星期二百思买股价的近期价格走势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2881b79593f655bc029301a1fe1c433c\" tg-width=\"1722\" tg-height=\"775\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <h2> Chart Analysis </h2> The chart illustrates the share price action of Best Buy over the course of the past three months. Each candle represents <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> trading day. The blue lines are a historical volatility range formed by 20-day Keltner Channel indicators, which depict price levels that represent a multiple of the average true fange (ATR) for Best Buy stock. ATR is a standard tool for illustrating historical volatility over time. The outer bands of the historical volatility range widened after the earnings-based share price drop and appear to be further pushing outwards to the downside as the share price continues to decline.</p><p><blockquote><h2>图表分析</h2>该图表说明了百思买过去三个月的股价走势。每根蜡烛代表<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>交易日。蓝线是由 20 天 Keltner 通道指标形成的历史波动范围，该指标描述了代表百思买股票平均真实价格 (ATR) 倍数的价格水平。ATR 是说明随时间变化的历史波动性的标准工具。基于盈利的股价下跌后，历史波动范围的外带扩大，并随着股价持续下跌，似乎进一步向外推向下行。</blockquote></p><p> From the left-hand side of the chart, Best Buy stock was in a mild downward trend, trading below its 20-day moving average. This is highlighted by the red arrow. This trend reversed at the beginning of October. This upward trend is highlighted by the green arrow. This helps to highlight the way that Best Buy stock rose to the extreme highs of the volatility range, topping out with its 52-week high the day before releasing earnings in late November.</p><p><blockquote>从图表左侧来看，百思买股票呈温和下跌趋势，交易价格低于 20 日移动平均线。红色箭头突出显示了这一点。这一趋势在10月初逆转。绿色箭头突出显示了这种上升趋势。这有助于凸显百思买股票如何升至波动性范围的极端高点，并在 11 月下旬发布财报的前一天触及 52 周高点。</blockquote></p><p> After dropping 12% the day after reporting earnings, Best Buy stock has remained in a strong downward trend at the extreme low of the volatility range. This trend is highlighted in blue. It's interesting to note that, at this time, Best Buy stock has failed to trade above its 20-day moving average, even on an intraday basis.</p><p><blockquote>在公布财报后的第二天下跌 12% 后，百思买股票在波动率范围的极低位置仍处于强劲下跌趋势。这种趋势用蓝色突出显示。有趣的是，目前百思买股票的交易价格未能高于其 20 天移动平均线，即使是盘中也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> In the past month, the highest Best Buy share price was $141.97, a 52-week high, in late November. This price is highlighted by the green balloon. Conversely, the lower share price during this time was $94.54 in mid-December, highlighted by the red balloon.</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，百思买最高股价为 11 月下旬的 141.97 美元，创 52 周新高。绿色气球突出显示了这个价格。相反，这段时间的较低股价是12月中旬的94.54美元，突出显示为红色气球。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Tip</h3> The <b>Keltner Channel indicator</b> displays a set of semi-parallel lines based on a 20-day simple moving average and an upper and lower line. Because the upper lines are drawn by adding a multiple of ATR to the average and the lower lines are drawn by subtracting a multiple of ATR from the average price, this channel indicator makes for an excellent visualization tool when charting historical volatility.</p><p><blockquote><h3>尖端</h3>这个<b>凯尔特纳通道指示器</b>显示一组基于20天简单移动平均线和上线和下线的半平行线。由于上线是通过将 ATR 的倍数添加到平均值中来绘制的，而下线是通过从平均价格中减去 ATR 的倍数来绘制的，因此该通道指标是绘制历史波动性图表时的出色可视化工具。</blockquote></p><p> <h2> Option Analysis </h2> Recent trading volumes of Best Buy options greatly favor calls over puts. On Tuesday, Dec. 21, over 8,000 calls were traded compared to 4,100 puts. This is nearly double the number of calls than puts, which, at first glance, appears bullish. However, trading volumes alone only tell one part of the story.</p><p><blockquote><h2>期权分析</h2>百思买期权最近的交易量大大有利于评级而不是看跌期权。12 月 21 日星期二，交易量超过 8,000 份评级，而看跌期权为 4,100 份。这几乎是看跌期权数量的两倍，看跌期权乍一看似乎看涨。然而，单靠交易量只能说明问题的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> An analysis of a stock's open interest can provide greater context into the sentiment of option traders. The current open interest for Best Buy features 75,000 calls against 82,000 puts. While recent trading volumes are incredibly bullish, these open interest figures illustrate a more moderate view of Best Buy's share price from option traders. However, much like trading volumes, open interest figures require further analysis to provide deeper insights into option trader sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>对股票未平仓合约的分析可以更好地了解期权交易者的情绪。百思买目前的未平仓合约为 75,000 份评级，而看跌期权为 82,000 份。虽然最近的交易量令人难以置信地看涨，但这些未平仓合约数据表明期权交易员对百思买股价的看法更为温和。然而，就像交易量一样，未平仓合约数据需要进一步分析，以更深入地了解期权交易者的情绪。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For Jan. 21, the next monthly option expiration date, there are a greater number of put options in the open interest than calls. The single option with the highest open interest is the $90 put with 4,400. This represents 7% downside to the current share price of Best Buy.</p><p><blockquote>对于下一个月度期权到期日 1 月 21 日，未平仓合约中的看跌期权数量多于评级。未平仓合约最高的单一期权是 90 美元的 4,400 美元看跌期权。这意味着百思买当前股价下跌了 7%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering at-the-money options and one strike in either direction up or down the option chain, there are more than 2.5-to-1 puts than calls in the open interest for Jan. 21. This is important to consider, as these strikes perhaps reflect more realistic price action based on current share prices rather than far out-of-the-money options, which may have numbers skewed by speculators and option sellers collecting premium. The current number, with far more puts than calls, expresses a bearish sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到平价期权以及期权链上下方向的一次行权，1 月 21 日未平仓合约中的看跌期权比评级多 2.5 比 1。这一点需要考虑，因为这些行权可能反映了基于当前股价的更现实的价格行为，而不是远远超值的期权，后者的数字可能会因投机者和期权卖家收取权利金而扭曲。目前的数字，看跌期权远远多于评级，表达了看跌情绪。</blockquote></p><p> While the open interest is slightly bearish in total, option open interest as a whole is noticeably down. Over the past five days, total open interest has decreased 34%. While the open interest of puts has decreased by 22%, the call open interest has declined by 43% over this time period. This means that, while fewer option traders are willing to hold Best Buy options, more traders are taking positions with put options than calls. This is reflected in the put/call ratio, which has risen 36% in the past five days.</p><p><blockquote>虽然未平仓合约总体上略有看跌，但期权未平仓合约整体明显下降。过去五天，未平仓合约总额下降了 34%。虽然看跌期权的未平仓合约下降了22%，但看涨期权未平仓合约在此期间下降了43%。这意味着，虽然愿意持有百思买期权的期权交易者较少，但持有看跌期权的交易者却多于评级。这反映在看跌/看涨期权比率上，该比率在过去五天中上涨了36%。</blockquote></p><p> A key measure for option trader sentiment in open interest is implied volatility. For options expiring Jan. 21, implied volatility suggests that traders are selling calls and buying puts. That's because for call options, the open interest is rising while implied volatility is falling, suggesting that traders are selling more contracts on short positions in the option. Conversely, for put options, open interest is rising while implied volatility is also rising, indicating that traders are adding to long positions in the option.</p><p><blockquote>衡量期权交易者对未平仓合约情绪的一个关键指标是隐含波动率。对于 1 月 21 日到期的期权，隐含波动率表明交易者正在出售评级并购买看跌期权。这是因为对于看涨期权期权来说，未平仓合约正在上升，而隐含波动率正在下降，这表明交易者正在出售更多期权空头合约。相反，对于看跌期权，未平仓合约正在上升，而隐含波动率也在上升，这表明交易者正在增加期权的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> While considering implied volatility, it is helpful to understand a concept known as volatility skew. Volatility skew is a measure of market implied volatility to both the upside and the downside, and the comparison of how they relate to each other. Current implied volatility skew is very bearish toward Best Buy. That's because the implied volatility for downside puts is greatly increasing relative to upside calls, which suggests that the market is pricing in a larger fear of a downside move for Best Buy. This skew can also be seen visually by the expanding volatility bands on the chart.</p><p><blockquote>在考虑隐含波动率时，理解波动率偏差的概念是有帮助的。波动性偏差是衡量市场上行和下行隐含波动性的指标，以及它们之间相互关系的比较。当前隐含波动率偏差非常看跌百思买。这是因为相对于上行评级，下行看跌期权的隐含波动性大幅增加，这表明市场对百思买下行的担忧加大了。这种偏差也可以通过图表上不断扩大的波动带直观地看到。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below illustrates at-the-money options expiring Jan. 21. The green box represents the pricing that call option sellers are offering and it implies a 38% probability that Best Buy shares will close inside this range or higher by expiration. The red box illustrates the pricing for puts, with a 37% chance if prices go lower by expiration.</p><p><blockquote>下图说明了 1 月 21 日到期的实值期权。绿色方框代表看涨期权期权卖方提供的定价，这意味着百思买股票到期时收盘价在该范围内或更高的概率为 38%。红框显示了看跌期权的定价，如果到期价格下跌，则有 37% 的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bace0981b0d5f72264fe230de94b232a\" tg-width=\"1727\" tg-height=\"773\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <h2>The Bottom Line </h2> Over the past month, Best Buy shares have fallen 29.6%. The share price decrease and current downward trend was kick started by a 12% single day earnings-based share decline. Option traders appear to be positioned for the Best Buy share price to continue to fall in the near term. That's because the Best Buy put option open interest percentage is declining less rapidly than the call option open interest percentage, and the put call ratio has recently risen an alarming amount.</p><p><blockquote><h2>底线</h2>过去一个月，百思买股价下跌了 29.6%。股价下跌和当前的下跌趋势是由基于单日收益的股价下跌 12% 引发的。期权交易员似乎预计百思买股价将在短期内继续下跌。这是因为百思买看跌期权未平仓合约百分比的下降速度低于看涨期权期权未平仓合约百分比，而且看跌看涨期权比率最近上升了惊人的幅度。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606203311635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Best Buy Option Traders See Slide Continuing<blockquote>百思买期权交易者看到下滑仍在继续</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBest Buy Option Traders See Slide Continuing<blockquote>百思买期权交易者看到下滑仍在继续</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Investopedia</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 11:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><h3>Key Takeaways</h3> <ul>  <li>Best Buy stock remains in a sharp downward trend.</li>  <li>Recent trading volumes appear bullish at first glance, but finer aspects of recent changes to the open interest appear bearish.</li>  <li>The share price for Best Buy remains well below its 20-day moving average.</li>  <li>Volatility-based support and resistance levels allow for a larger move to the upside.</li> </ul> The share price of Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) has remained in a downward trend since the company fell 12% the day after its latest earnings report was released in late November. Despite beating analyst expectations, investors bid down the share prices of Best Buy as analysts expressed fear toward consumer demand and high supply chain costs. Recent market volatility has not provided a foundation on which Best Buy stock can pivot to the upside.</p><p><blockquote><h3>主要要点</h3><ul><li>百思买股票仍处于大幅下跌趋势。</li><li>最近的交易量乍一看似乎是看涨的，但最近未平仓合约变化的细微方面似乎是看跌的。</li><li>百思买的股价仍远低于 20 天移动平均线。</li><li>基于波动性的支撑位和阻力位允许更大的上行。</li></ul>Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) 的股价自 11 月下旬发布最新收益报告后的第二天下跌 12% 以来一直处于下跌趋势。尽管超出分析师预期，但由于分析师对消费者需求和高供应链成本表示担忧，投资者仍下调了百思买的股价。最近的市场波动并没有为百思买股票的上涨提供基础。</blockquote></p><p> At first glance, it appears thatr option traders are positioned for the Best Buy share price to reverse its recent downward trend. However, a deeper dive into the finer aspects of the Best Buy open interest paints a clearer picture. In addition, aspects of the Best Buy implied volatility suggest that the market is predicting further downside in the near term for Best Buy.</p><p><blockquote>乍一看，期权交易者似乎准备让百思买股价扭转近期的下跌趋势。然而，深入研究百思买未平仓合约的细节会描绘出一幅更清晰的画面。此外，百思买隐含波动性的各个方面表明，市场预测百思买在短期内将进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Whereas recent trading volumes for Best Buy appear bullish at first glance, a more in-depth analysis of recent open interest changes and the impact of implied volatility suggests that option traders are buying put options and selling calls.</p><p><blockquote>尽管百思买最近的交易量乍一看似乎看涨，但对最近未平仓合约变化和隐含波动性影响的更深入分析表明，期权交易者正在购买看跌期权并出售评级。</blockquote></p><p> Chart watchers can gain valuable insight into the overall sentiment toward Best Buy stock by combining an assessment of recent option activity with technical analysis of share price activity. The chart below depicts the recent price action for the Best Buy share price as of Tuesday, Dec 21.</p><p><blockquote>图表观察者可以通过将近期期权活动的评估与股价活动的技术分析相结合，获得对百思买股票整体情绪的宝贵见解。下图描述了截至 12 月 21 日星期二百思买股价的近期价格走势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2881b79593f655bc029301a1fe1c433c\" tg-width=\"1722\" tg-height=\"775\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <h2> Chart Analysis </h2> The chart illustrates the share price action of Best Buy over the course of the past three months. Each candle represents <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> trading day. The blue lines are a historical volatility range formed by 20-day Keltner Channel indicators, which depict price levels that represent a multiple of the average true fange (ATR) for Best Buy stock. ATR is a standard tool for illustrating historical volatility over time. The outer bands of the historical volatility range widened after the earnings-based share price drop and appear to be further pushing outwards to the downside as the share price continues to decline.</p><p><blockquote><h2>图表分析</h2>该图表说明了百思买过去三个月的股价走势。每根蜡烛代表<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>交易日。蓝线是由 20 天 Keltner 通道指标形成的历史波动范围，该指标描述了代表百思买股票平均真实价格 (ATR) 倍数的价格水平。ATR 是说明随时间变化的历史波动性的标准工具。基于盈利的股价下跌后，历史波动范围的外带扩大，并随着股价持续下跌，似乎进一步向外推向下行。</blockquote></p><p> From the left-hand side of the chart, Best Buy stock was in a mild downward trend, trading below its 20-day moving average. This is highlighted by the red arrow. This trend reversed at the beginning of October. This upward trend is highlighted by the green arrow. This helps to highlight the way that Best Buy stock rose to the extreme highs of the volatility range, topping out with its 52-week high the day before releasing earnings in late November.</p><p><blockquote>从图表左侧来看，百思买股票呈温和下跌趋势，交易价格低于 20 日移动平均线。红色箭头突出显示了这一点。这一趋势在10月初逆转。绿色箭头突出显示了这种上升趋势。这有助于凸显百思买股票如何升至波动性范围的极端高点，并在 11 月下旬发布财报的前一天触及 52 周高点。</blockquote></p><p> After dropping 12% the day after reporting earnings, Best Buy stock has remained in a strong downward trend at the extreme low of the volatility range. This trend is highlighted in blue. It's interesting to note that, at this time, Best Buy stock has failed to trade above its 20-day moving average, even on an intraday basis.</p><p><blockquote>在公布财报后的第二天下跌 12% 后，百思买股票在波动率范围的极低位置仍处于强劲下跌趋势。这种趋势用蓝色突出显示。有趣的是，目前百思买股票的交易价格未能高于其 20 天移动平均线，即使是盘中也是如此。</blockquote></p><p> In the past month, the highest Best Buy share price was $141.97, a 52-week high, in late November. This price is highlighted by the green balloon. Conversely, the lower share price during this time was $94.54 in mid-December, highlighted by the red balloon.</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，百思买最高股价为 11 月下旬的 141.97 美元，创 52 周新高。绿色气球突出显示了这个价格。相反，这段时间的较低股价是12月中旬的94.54美元，突出显示为红色气球。</blockquote></p><p> <h3>Tip</h3> The <b>Keltner Channel indicator</b> displays a set of semi-parallel lines based on a 20-day simple moving average and an upper and lower line. Because the upper lines are drawn by adding a multiple of ATR to the average and the lower lines are drawn by subtracting a multiple of ATR from the average price, this channel indicator makes for an excellent visualization tool when charting historical volatility.</p><p><blockquote><h3>尖端</h3>这个<b>凯尔特纳通道指示器</b>显示一组基于20天简单移动平均线和上线和下线的半平行线。由于上线是通过将 ATR 的倍数添加到平均值中来绘制的，而下线是通过从平均价格中减去 ATR 的倍数来绘制的，因此该通道指标是绘制历史波动性图表时的出色可视化工具。</blockquote></p><p> <h2> Option Analysis </h2> Recent trading volumes of Best Buy options greatly favor calls over puts. On Tuesday, Dec. 21, over 8,000 calls were traded compared to 4,100 puts. This is nearly double the number of calls than puts, which, at first glance, appears bullish. However, trading volumes alone only tell one part of the story.</p><p><blockquote><h2>期权分析</h2>百思买期权最近的交易量大大有利于评级而不是看跌期权。12 月 21 日星期二，交易量超过 8,000 份评级，而看跌期权为 4,100 份。这几乎是看跌期权数量的两倍，看跌期权乍一看似乎看涨。然而，单靠交易量只能说明问题的一部分。</blockquote></p><p> An analysis of a stock's open interest can provide greater context into the sentiment of option traders. The current open interest for Best Buy features 75,000 calls against 82,000 puts. While recent trading volumes are incredibly bullish, these open interest figures illustrate a more moderate view of Best Buy's share price from option traders. However, much like trading volumes, open interest figures require further analysis to provide deeper insights into option trader sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>对股票未平仓合约的分析可以更好地了解期权交易者的情绪。百思买目前的未平仓合约为 75,000 份评级，而看跌期权为 82,000 份。虽然最近的交易量令人难以置信地看涨，但这些未平仓合约数据表明期权交易员对百思买股价的看法更为温和。然而，就像交易量一样，未平仓合约数据需要进一步分析，以更深入地了解期权交易者的情绪。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> For Jan. 21, the next monthly option expiration date, there are a greater number of put options in the open interest than calls. The single option with the highest open interest is the $90 put with 4,400. This represents 7% downside to the current share price of Best Buy.</p><p><blockquote>对于下一个月度期权到期日 1 月 21 日，未平仓合约中的看跌期权数量多于评级。未平仓合约最高的单一期权是 90 美元的 4,400 美元看跌期权。这意味着百思买当前股价下跌了 7%。</blockquote></p><p> Considering at-the-money options and one strike in either direction up or down the option chain, there are more than 2.5-to-1 puts than calls in the open interest for Jan. 21. This is important to consider, as these strikes perhaps reflect more realistic price action based on current share prices rather than far out-of-the-money options, which may have numbers skewed by speculators and option sellers collecting premium. The current number, with far more puts than calls, expresses a bearish sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到平价期权以及期权链上下方向的一次行权，1 月 21 日未平仓合约中的看跌期权比评级多 2.5 比 1。这一点需要考虑，因为这些行权可能反映了基于当前股价的更现实的价格行为，而不是远远超值的期权，后者的数字可能会因投机者和期权卖家收取权利金而扭曲。目前的数字，看跌期权远远多于评级，表达了看跌情绪。</blockquote></p><p> While the open interest is slightly bearish in total, option open interest as a whole is noticeably down. Over the past five days, total open interest has decreased 34%. While the open interest of puts has decreased by 22%, the call open interest has declined by 43% over this time period. This means that, while fewer option traders are willing to hold Best Buy options, more traders are taking positions with put options than calls. This is reflected in the put/call ratio, which has risen 36% in the past five days.</p><p><blockquote>虽然未平仓合约总体上略有看跌，但期权未平仓合约整体明显下降。过去五天，未平仓合约总额下降了 34%。虽然看跌期权的未平仓合约下降了22%，但看涨期权未平仓合约在此期间下降了43%。这意味着，虽然愿意持有百思买期权的期权交易者较少，但持有看跌期权的交易者却多于评级。这反映在看跌/看涨期权比率上，该比率在过去五天中上涨了36%。</blockquote></p><p> A key measure for option trader sentiment in open interest is implied volatility. For options expiring Jan. 21, implied volatility suggests that traders are selling calls and buying puts. That's because for call options, the open interest is rising while implied volatility is falling, suggesting that traders are selling more contracts on short positions in the option. Conversely, for put options, open interest is rising while implied volatility is also rising, indicating that traders are adding to long positions in the option.</p><p><blockquote>衡量期权交易者对未平仓合约情绪的一个关键指标是隐含波动率。对于 1 月 21 日到期的期权，隐含波动率表明交易者正在出售评级并购买看跌期权。这是因为对于看涨期权期权来说，未平仓合约正在上升，而隐含波动率正在下降，这表明交易者正在出售更多期权空头合约。相反，对于看跌期权，未平仓合约正在上升，而隐含波动率也在上升，这表明交易者正在增加期权的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p> While considering implied volatility, it is helpful to understand a concept known as volatility skew. Volatility skew is a measure of market implied volatility to both the upside and the downside, and the comparison of how they relate to each other. Current implied volatility skew is very bearish toward Best Buy. That's because the implied volatility for downside puts is greatly increasing relative to upside calls, which suggests that the market is pricing in a larger fear of a downside move for Best Buy. This skew can also be seen visually by the expanding volatility bands on the chart.</p><p><blockquote>在考虑隐含波动率时，理解波动率偏差的概念是有帮助的。波动性偏差是衡量市场上行和下行隐含波动性的指标，以及它们之间相互关系的比较。当前隐含波动率偏差非常看跌百思买。这是因为相对于上行评级，下行看跌期权的隐含波动性大幅增加，这表明市场对百思买下行的担忧加大了。这种偏差也可以通过图表上不断扩大的波动带直观地看到。</blockquote></p><p> The chart below illustrates at-the-money options expiring Jan. 21. The green box represents the pricing that call option sellers are offering and it implies a 38% probability that Best Buy shares will close inside this range or higher by expiration. The red box illustrates the pricing for puts, with a 37% chance if prices go lower by expiration.</p><p><blockquote>下图说明了 1 月 21 日到期的实值期权。绿色方框代表看涨期权期权卖方提供的定价，这意味着百思买股票到期时收盘价在该范围内或更高的概率为 38%。红框显示了看跌期权的定价，如果到期价格下跌，则有 37% 的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bace0981b0d5f72264fe230de94b232a\" tg-width=\"1727\" tg-height=\"773\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <h2>The Bottom Line </h2> Over the past month, Best Buy shares have fallen 29.6%. The share price decrease and current downward trend was kick started by a 12% single day earnings-based share decline. Option traders appear to be positioned for the Best Buy share price to continue to fall in the near term. That's because the Best Buy put option open interest percentage is declining less rapidly than the call option open interest percentage, and the put call ratio has recently risen an alarming amount.</p><p><blockquote><h2>底线</h2>过去一个月，百思买股价下跌了 29.6%。股价下跌和当前的下跌趋势是由基于单日收益的股价下跌 12% 引发的。期权交易员似乎预计百思买股价将在短期内继续下跌。这是因为百思买看跌期权未平仓合约百分比的下降速度低于看涨期权期权未平仓合约百分比，而且看跌看涨期权比率最近上升了惊人的幅度。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/best-buy-option-traders-see-slide-continuing-5214215\">Investopedia</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4076":"电脑与电子产品零售","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4567":"ESG概念","BBY":"百思买"},"source_url":"https://www.investopedia.com/best-buy-option-traders-see-slide-continuing-5214215","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2193111443","content_text":"Key Takeaways\n\nBest Buy stock remains in a sharp downward trend.\nRecent trading volumes appear bullish at first glance, but finer aspects of recent changes to the open interest appear bearish.\nThe share price for Best Buy remains well below its 20-day moving average.\nVolatility-based support and resistance levels allow for a larger move to the upside.\n\nThe share price of Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) has remained in a downward trend since the company fell 12% the day after its latest earnings report was released in late November. Despite beating analyst expectations, investors bid down the share prices of Best Buy as analysts expressed fear toward consumer demand and high supply chain costs. Recent market volatility has not provided a foundation on which Best Buy stock can pivot to the upside.\nAt first glance, it appears thatr option traders are positioned for the Best Buy share price to reverse its recent downward trend. However, a deeper dive into the finer aspects of the Best Buy open interest paints a clearer picture. In addition, aspects of the Best Buy implied volatility suggest that the market is predicting further downside in the near term for Best Buy.\nWhereas recent trading volumes for Best Buy appear bullish at first glance, a more in-depth analysis of recent open interest changes and the impact of implied volatility suggests that option traders are buying put options and selling calls.\nChart watchers can gain valuable insight into the overall sentiment toward Best Buy stock by combining an assessment of recent option activity with technical analysis of share price activity. The chart below depicts the recent price action for the Best Buy share price as of Tuesday, Dec 21.\n\n Chart Analysis \nThe chart illustrates the share price action of Best Buy over the course of the past three months. Each candle represents one trading day. The blue lines are a historical volatility range formed by 20-day Keltner Channel indicators, which depict price levels that represent a multiple of the average true fange (ATR) for Best Buy stock. ATR is a standard tool for illustrating historical volatility over time. The outer bands of the historical volatility range widened after the earnings-based share price drop and appear to be further pushing outwards to the downside as the share price continues to decline.\nFrom the left-hand side of the chart, Best Buy stock was in a mild downward trend, trading below its 20-day moving average. This is highlighted by the red arrow. This trend reversed at the beginning of October. This upward trend is highlighted by the green arrow. This helps to highlight the way that Best Buy stock rose to the extreme highs of the volatility range, topping out with its 52-week high the day before releasing earnings in late November.\nAfter dropping 12% the day after reporting earnings, Best Buy stock has remained in a strong downward trend at the extreme low of the volatility range. This trend is highlighted in blue. It's interesting to note that, at this time, Best Buy stock has failed to trade above its 20-day moving average, even on an intraday basis.\nIn the past month, the highest Best Buy share price was $141.97, a 52-week high, in late November. This price is highlighted by the green balloon. Conversely, the lower share price during this time was $94.54 in mid-December, highlighted by the red balloon.\nTip\nThe Keltner Channel indicator displays a set of semi-parallel lines based on a 20-day simple moving average and an upper and lower line. Because the upper lines are drawn by adding a multiple of ATR to the average and the lower lines are drawn by subtracting a multiple of ATR from the average price, this channel indicator makes for an excellent visualization tool when charting historical volatility.\n Option Analysis \nRecent trading volumes of Best Buy options greatly favor calls over puts. On Tuesday, Dec. 21, over 8,000 calls were traded compared to 4,100 puts. This is nearly double the number of calls than puts, which, at first glance, appears bullish. However, trading volumes alone only tell one part of the story.\nAn analysis of a stock's open interest can provide greater context into the sentiment of option traders. The current open interest for Best Buy features 75,000 calls against 82,000 puts. While recent trading volumes are incredibly bullish, these open interest figures illustrate a more moderate view of Best Buy's share price from option traders. However, much like trading volumes, open interest figures require further analysis to provide deeper insights into option trader sentiment.\nFor Jan. 21, the next monthly option expiration date, there are a greater number of put options in the open interest than calls. The single option with the highest open interest is the $90 put with 4,400. This represents 7% downside to the current share price of Best Buy.\nConsidering at-the-money options and one strike in either direction up or down the option chain, there are more than 2.5-to-1 puts than calls in the open interest for Jan. 21. This is important to consider, as these strikes perhaps reflect more realistic price action based on current share prices rather than far out-of-the-money options, which may have numbers skewed by speculators and option sellers collecting premium. The current number, with far more puts than calls, expresses a bearish sentiment.\nWhile the open interest is slightly bearish in total, option open interest as a whole is noticeably down. Over the past five days, total open interest has decreased 34%. While the open interest of puts has decreased by 22%, the call open interest has declined by 43% over this time period. This means that, while fewer option traders are willing to hold Best Buy options, more traders are taking positions with put options than calls. This is reflected in the put/call ratio, which has risen 36% in the past five days.\nA key measure for option trader sentiment in open interest is implied volatility. For options expiring Jan. 21, implied volatility suggests that traders are selling calls and buying puts. That's because for call options, the open interest is rising while implied volatility is falling, suggesting that traders are selling more contracts on short positions in the option. Conversely, for put options, open interest is rising while implied volatility is also rising, indicating that traders are adding to long positions in the option.\nWhile considering implied volatility, it is helpful to understand a concept known as volatility skew. Volatility skew is a measure of market implied volatility to both the upside and the downside, and the comparison of how they relate to each other. Current implied volatility skew is very bearish toward Best Buy. That's because the implied volatility for downside puts is greatly increasing relative to upside calls, which suggests that the market is pricing in a larger fear of a downside move for Best Buy. This skew can also be seen visually by the expanding volatility bands on the chart.\nThe chart below illustrates at-the-money options expiring Jan. 21. The green box represents the pricing that call option sellers are offering and it implies a 38% probability that Best Buy shares will close inside this range or higher by expiration. The red box illustrates the pricing for puts, with a 37% chance if prices go lower by expiration.\n\nThe Bottom Line \nOver the past month, Best Buy shares have fallen 29.6%. The share price decrease and current downward trend was kick started by a 12% single day earnings-based share decline. Option traders appear to be positioned for the Best Buy share price to continue to fall in the near term. That's because the Best Buy put option open interest percentage is declining less rapidly than the call option open interest percentage, and the put call ratio has recently risen an alarming amount.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2928,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691450046,"gmtCreate":1640230905951,"gmtModify":1640230905951,"author":{"id":"4094701214252590","authorId":"4094701214252590","name":"tabbicatty","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c37c880fb1db837d1d1d4d14150f23ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094701214252590","idStr":"4094701214252590"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691450046","repostId":"1144834386","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144834386","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640228239,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1144834386?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 10:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"SEAC Stock: 15 Things We Know as TikTok Competitor Triller Confirms Reverse Merger Plans<blockquote>SEAC 股票：随着 TikTok 竞争对手 Triller 确认反向合并计划，我们所知道的 15 件事</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144834386","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"SeaChange International(NASDAQ:SEAC) stock is rocketing higher on Wednesday thanks to news of a merg","content":"<p><div> SeaChange International(NASDAQ:SEAC) stock is rocketing higher on Wednesday thanks to news of a merger agreement with Triller. Let’s take in all that news below!  The agreement will have Triller and ...</p><p><blockquote><div>由于与 Triller 达成合并协议的消息，SeaChange International（纳斯达克股票代码：SEAC）股价周三飙升。让我们一起来看看下面的新闻吧!该协议将有惊悚片和……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/seac-stock-15-things-we-know-as-tiktok-competitor-triller-confirms-reverse-merger-plans/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/seac-stock-15-things-we-know-as-tiktok-competitor-triller-confirms-reverse-merger-plans/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SEAC Stock: 15 Things We Know as TikTok Competitor Triller Confirms Reverse Merger Plans<blockquote>SEAC 股票：随着 TikTok 竞争对手 Triller 确认反向合并计划，我们所知道的 15 件事</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSEAC Stock: 15 Things We Know as TikTok Competitor Triller Confirms Reverse Merger Plans<blockquote>SEAC 股票：随着 TikTok 竞争对手 Triller 确认反向合并计划，我们所知道的 15 件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 10:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> SeaChange International(NASDAQ:SEAC) stock is rocketing higher on Wednesday thanks to news of a merger agreement with Triller. Let’s take in all that news below!  The agreement will have Triller and ...</p><p><blockquote><div>由于与 Triller 达成合并协议的消息，SeaChange International（纳斯达克股票代码：SEAC）股价周三飙升。让我们一起来看看下面的新闻吧!该协议将有惊悚片和……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/seac-stock-15-things-we-know-as-tiktok-competitor-triller-confirms-reverse-merger-plans/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/seac-stock-15-things-we-know-as-tiktok-competitor-triller-confirms-reverse-merger-plans/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/seac-stock-15-things-we-know-as-tiktok-competitor-triller-confirms-reverse-merger-plans/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SEAC":"海易国际"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/seac-stock-15-things-we-know-as-tiktok-competitor-triller-confirms-reverse-merger-plans/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144834386","content_text":"SeaChange International(NASDAQ:SEAC) stock is rocketing higher on Wednesday thanks to news of a merger agreement with Triller.\nLet’s take in all that news below!\n\nThe agreement will have Triller and SeaChange International enacting a reverse merger.\nThat means that once the merger is complete, the new company will operate as TrillerVerz.\nTo go along with that, the ticker for the company’s stock will switch from SEAC to ILLR.\nThis has the two companies expecting a value of $5 billion for the combined company.\nTrillerVerz is looking to create a business focused on the Web3.0 movement.\nThis has it looking to become the voice of users in the 18- to the 34-year-old age group.\nThat would have it challenging TikTok as a social media platform for creators and influencers.\nWhen the deal closes, the new company will be led by TrillerVerz CEO Mahi de Silva.\n\n\nPeter Aquino, current president and CEO of SeaChange International, will stick around as part of the new company’s team.\nThe Boards of Directors at both companies have given their support to the deal.\nThis has the two companies expecting the reverse merger to close sometime in the first quarter of 2022.\nRumors of a deal between the two companies kicked off last week.\nSEAC stock is experiencing heavy trading on today’s news.\nThat has some 137 million shares of the stock changing hands.\nFor the record, its daily average trading volume is closer to 7 million shares.\n\nSEAC stock is up 9.5% on Wednesday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SEAC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2547,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691427173,"gmtCreate":1640230852445,"gmtModify":1640230852445,"author":{"id":"4094701214252590","authorId":"4094701214252590","name":"tabbicatty","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c37c880fb1db837d1d1d4d14150f23ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094701214252590","idStr":"4094701214252590"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691427173","repostId":"1164467804","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1164467804","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640230809,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1164467804?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-23 11:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1164467804","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.Apple Inc. stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. U","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.</li>  <li>This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.</li>  <li>However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.</li>  <li>In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价今年已上涨 34%，远远超过纳斯达克 100 指数。</li><li>这导致一些人说该股处于泡沫中，因为其价格正在快速上涨。</li><li>然而，苹果的股价涨幅与收入增长大致一致，实际上低于最近一个季度的每股收益增长。</li><li>在本文中，我将阐述一个看好苹果的论点，认为它拥有宽阔的护城河，将推动未来的增长和盈利能力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Inc.</b>(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&amp;P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司。</b>(AAPL) 股票在 2021 年表现强劲。今年上涨了 35%，表现稳步优于纳斯达克 100 指数和标普500指数。苹果的 2021 年是该公司连续多年获胜的最新一年，这表明一只股票永远不会太大，无法战胜市场。</blockquote></p><p> With that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，仍有不少人认为苹果的连胜需要修正。最近几周，我们看到大量文章声称 AAPL 被高估，标题如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>“苹果股票现在是一个泡沫”。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“为什么苹果股票可能是一个随时可能破裂的泡沫”。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“卖掉苹果？这位专家为何认为苹果股价下跌12%”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Not all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at&nbsp;TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有这些文章都是明确的悲观。少数人提到了积极的一面和消极的一面。但总的来说，认为苹果是一个泡沫，或者至少被高估的观点正在变得普遍。如果你看看 TipRanks 的情绪图，就会发现对苹果股票的负面情绪明显。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8357bc3eaf626336dbf12b2ff1f410\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TipRanks’ sentiment chart</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TipRanks 的情绪图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward&nbsp;<b>Meta Platforms</b>(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将投资者对苹果的看跌情绪与对<b>元平台</b>（脸书）。Meta 是一家因违反反垄断规定而被起诉并每天受到媒体攻击的公司，其情绪得分近乎完美。因此，没有特殊的科技诅咒可以保证对该行业个股的负面情绪。苹果的情绪问题确实是它自己的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc8cf3f8fc200c2b7a9c85e69cc9f2\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Which begs the question:</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Why?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>为什么？</i></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage –&nbsp;<b>Nintendo</b>(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一只护城河宽阔的股票，是少数几家同时为大多数用户控制硬件和软件的科技公司之一。许多公司都试图复制苹果通过整合硬件和应用程序来实现收入最大化的战略，但成功的公司寥寥无几。如果你想要IOS或Mac OS体验，你需要一部iPhone或Mac。数十亿人想要这些体验，以至于愿意为苹果的产品支付高价。很少有其他科技公司拥有这种优势——<b>任天堂</b>（OTCPK：NTDOY）如果你把游戏算作技术，这是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> This makes Apple arguably a&nbsp;wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated&nbsp;Apple ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>这使得苹果可以说是一只宽护城河股票。你需要苹果硬件来运行苹果软件，而人们喜欢苹果软件。这使得苹果对某些软件体验集合拥有了 “垄断权”。它并不垄断任何特定的设备类别，但它是唯一一家能够提供集成苹果生态系统的公司。</blockquote></p><p> This advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the&nbsp;fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这一优势为苹果股东带来了红利——无论是象征性的还是字面上的。按市值计算，苹果是全球最大的公司，按收入计算，是第四大公司。近年来，其收入增长率有所放缓，但某些细分市场（如手表和服务）的增长速度比以往任何时候都快。因此，苹果似乎仍有巨大的盈利能力和增长潜力。因此，我将在本文中阐述一个看涨苹果的论点，认为其坚实的经济护城河为其股票未来的升值提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments&nbsp;and entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>了解苹果最重要的事情之一是它的竞争地位。该公司在各种各样的不同市场开展业务，因此很难将其业务局限于 “技术 ”之外。从技术上讲，该公司的 SIC 代码（行业分类）是 7372，表示 “预打包软件”。然而，这并没有反映苹果业务活动的全部范围，因为它还涉及硬件、半导体、支付和娱乐等领域。</blockquote></p><p> Some of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最值得关注的竞争对手包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Samsung</b>(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>三星</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）-智能手机。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Huawei</b>- smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>华为</b>-智能手机。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>Alphabet</b>智能手机、笔记本电脑和软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT) - laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>微软</b>（MSFT）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Dell</b>(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>戴尔</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）- 笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Adobe</b>(ADBE) - creative software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>土坯</b>（ADBE）-创意软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li>And many more.</p><p><blockquote><li>还有更多。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> A comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.</p><p><blockquote>由于该公司在许多不同的垂直领域开展业务，因此不可能列出苹果竞争对手的全面名单。除了上面所有的名字，苹果可以说是在与大型半导体公司竞争，因为它销售带有苹果芯片的手机和笔记本电脑。苹果是最全面的科技公司之一，拥有庞大的硬件、软件和服务阵容，与数十家公司进行默契竞争。</blockquote></p><p> How is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to&nbsp;Counterpoint Research&nbsp;and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果在其竞争的行业中表现如何？根据 Counterpoint Research 和 Statista 的数据，苹果的市场份额包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Smartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>智能手机：美国47%，全球14%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Laptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>笔记本电脑：美国15%，全球7.6%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Smartwatches: over 50% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>智能手表：全球超过50%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Tablets: 35% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>平板电脑：全球35%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> On the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and&nbsp;sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，苹果在其大部分市场都处于第一或第二的位置。它在智能手机销量上落后于三星，但在手表和平板电脑销量上领先。这是一个相当不错的市场地位。它会随着时间的推移而增长。苹果的一些产品类别仍然相当新。该公司最近才进军智能手表领域，该类别的销售额正以 50% 的速度增长。苹果最近因增长放缓而受到批评，但该公司产品线中的某些产品增长速度比以往任何时候都快。这为未来的强劲增长提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The M1 Chip and Apple Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>M1芯片和苹果服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:</p><p><blockquote>说到未来的增长，苹果最有前途的两个类别值得探讨：</blockquote></p><p> <i>The M1 Chip and Apple Services.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>M1芯片和苹果服务。</i></blockquote></p><p> The M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:</p><p><blockquote>M1芯片（现在真的是M1系列芯片）是苹果基于ARM架构设计的一款新芯片。基本配置拥有：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>An 8-core CPU.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>8核CPU。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>A 7-core GPU.</p><p><blockquote><li>7核GPU。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).</p><p><blockquote><li>8或16千兆字节的RAM（物理内置于芯片中）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>5nm process.</p><p><blockquote><li>5nm工艺。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>16 billion transistors.</p><p><blockquote><li>160亿个晶体管。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>3.2 GHZ max clock rate.</p><p><blockquote><li>3.2 GHZ最大时钟速率。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Incredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless&nbsp;YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.</p><p><blockquote>难以置信的规格。最重要的是，还有两款新机型——M1 Pro和M1 Max——在基础机型的基础上进行了改进。列出这些高端机型的详细规格表会很乏味，但一个令人瞠目结舌的数据是 M1 Max 的 570 亿个晶体管。这与极高端游戏PC中包含的CPU竞争。当然，正如无数YouTube评论者指出的那样，这使得较新的Mac电脑本身可以作为游戏机。苹果已经在笔记本电脑和台式机领域占据了相当大的市场份额，但凭借M1芯片系列，它现在也有机会占领游戏领域。到目前为止，事实证明，这一细分市场对苹果来说难以捉摸。因此，苹果的计算机产品线有很大的加速增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Next up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually&nbsp;lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been&nbsp;flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.</p><p><blockquote>接下来是苹果服务。这是一个广泛的类别，包括流媒体音乐、电影、书籍等。这一类别一直在扩大，并有可能在硬件增长放缓后推动更多增长。在最近一个季度，服务增长实际上落后于产品增长，后者为 25%，而后者为 30%。然而，服务是很有前途的，因为即使在硬件产品达到其总目标市场之后，服务这一类别仍有可能继续增长。经过多年的强劲增长，全球智能手机销量一直持平。在这种环境下，指望苹果的硬件销售额能像过去那样快速增长是不现实的。但通过向现有客户销售更多服务，即使硬件销售不佳，苹果也能继续增长总收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务及估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Now we can turn to Apple’s financials.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们可以看看苹果的财务状况了。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s most recent quarter was a&nbsp;miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最近一个季度的收入和盈利均不佳；然而，从绝对角度来看，结果是强劲的。本季度，苹果实现了：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入 830 亿美元，增长 29%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><li>经营利润273亿美元，增长60%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润205亿美元，增长63%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益为 1.24 美元，上涨 69%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在第四季度报告中报告称，运营产生了 1040 亿美元的 TTM 现金。这比上一年增长了 28%。</blockquote></p><p> These were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。尤其是对于一家成熟的公司来说。苹果是世界上市值最大的公司，但其收入和盈利均高于成长型股票的水平。这一季度并非侥幸。根据 Seeking Alpha Quant 的数据，苹果在上述指标中的五年复合年增长率如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Revenue: 11%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入：11%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Operating income: 12.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>经营利润：12.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Net income: 15.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润：15.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Diluted EPS: 22%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释每股收益：22%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash flow: 10.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>现金流：10.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Again very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:</p><p><blockquote>对于一家成熟的公司来说，这又是非常可靠的。最近一个季度看起来确实好于平均水平，但长期指标仍然非常好。这正是本文论文的核心所在：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a&nbsp;PEG ratio of just 0.43&nbsp;for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.</p><p><blockquote>苹果绝对不是泡沫股。它的估值相当高，因为它的交易价格是市盈率的 30 倍、销售额的 7.7 倍和现金流的 26 倍。但该公司仍有很大的增长潜力。按年复合计算，其盈利增长率为 22%，正如最近一个季度所显示的那样，它还有加速增长的空间。如果同时考虑增长和价值，过去 12 个月的 PEG 比率仅为 0.43。这远非泡沫估值。事实上，它看起来非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> While Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果绝对是一家增长强劲、估值适中的超高利润公司，但其股票并非没有风险。作为一家大型硬件公司，它很容易受到供应链问题和其他冲击。本文概述的看涨论点的一些主要风险和挑战包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Supply chain issues.</b>The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company&nbsp;slashed iPhone production&nbsp;because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>供应链问题。</b>世界目前正在经历芯片短缺，以及各种其他高科技零部件的短缺。这些问题正在影响苹果。就在最近，由于供应链问题，该公司削减了iPhone的产量。就在关键的假期之前。对于像苹果这样依赖现成的原材料供应来保持销售的硬件公司来说，这类问题是一个无处不在的威胁。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Scale.</b>Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>比例。</b>从数学上讲，某件事变得越大，就需要更大的增长来推动与过去相同的百分比增长。如果你开始销售1000美元的小部件，并在第一年卖出一个，那么第二年只要卖出价值2000美元的小部件，你的销售额就会翻一番。然而，如果十年后，你的销售额达到了 3320 亿美元，那么你需要客户在第 11 年拿出 6640 亿美元，才能实现同样的增长。这在数学上是不太可能的。巧合的是，苹果第四季度 830 亿美元的收入年化达到了 3320 亿美元。因此，未来实现增长将更加困难。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Disruption.</b>Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself&nbsp;did this once, to&nbsp;<b>BlackBerry</b>(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&amp;D, you never know where the next threat will come from.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>中断。</b>苹果的商业模式要求其始终处于技术创新的前沿。如果另一家公司推出明显优于 iPhone 的产品，那可能会在一夜之间扼杀苹果的业务。苹果自己也做过一次，<b>黑莓</b>（BB），命运多舛的黑莓智能手机的制造商。科技行业的历史上充满了公司互相吃掉对方的午餐，虽然苹果有数十亿美元用于研发，但你永远不知道下一个威胁会来自哪里。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.</p><p><blockquote>以上是投资者需要牢记的一些非常真实的风险。尤其是供应链风险，非常真实，在几份季度报告中都被列为一个问题。话虽如此，苹果股票拥有令人难以置信的护城河、体面的增长和不合理的估值。这绝对不是一只可以做空的股票。虽然多头实现的收益在未来不会像过去那么好，但它们仍然应该是不错的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Are there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAre there any bubbles in Apple stock?<blockquote>苹果股票有泡沫吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-23 11:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Apple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.</li>  <li>This has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.</li>  <li>However, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.</li>  <li>In this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e9d29c6db997dd98e087415e7e2acfe\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1036\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Justin Sullivan/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>苹果股价今年已上涨 34%，远远超过纳斯达克 100 指数。</li><li>这导致一些人说该股处于泡沫中，因为其价格正在快速上涨。</li><li>然而，苹果的股价涨幅与收入增长大致一致，实际上低于最近一个季度的每股收益增长。</li><li>在本文中，我将阐述一个看好苹果的论点，认为它拥有宽阔的护城河，将推动未来的增长和盈利能力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Inc.</b>(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&amp;P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.</p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司。</b>(AAPL) 股票在 2021 年表现强劲。今年上涨了 35%，表现稳步优于纳斯达克 100 指数和标普500指数。苹果的 2021 年是该公司连续多年获胜的最新一年，这表明一只股票永远不会太大，无法战胜市场。</blockquote></p><p> With that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，仍有不少人认为苹果的连胜需要修正。最近几周，我们看到大量文章声称 AAPL 被高估，标题如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><i>“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”</i></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><i>“苹果股票现在是一个泡沫”。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“为什么苹果股票可能是一个随时可能破裂的泡沫”。</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><i>“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”</i></p><p><blockquote><li><i>“卖掉苹果？这位专家为何认为苹果股价下跌12%”</i></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Not all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at&nbsp;TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有这些文章都是明确的悲观。少数人提到了积极的一面和消极的一面。但总的来说，认为苹果是一个泡沫，或者至少被高估的观点正在变得普遍。如果你看看 TipRanks 的情绪图，就会发现对苹果股票的负面情绪明显。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8357bc3eaf626336dbf12b2ff1f410\" tg-width=\"485\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: TipRanks’ sentiment chart</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：TipRanks 的情绪图表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward&nbsp;<b>Meta Platforms</b>(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.</p><p><blockquote>当我们将投资者对苹果的看跌情绪与对<b>元平台</b>（脸书）。Meta 是一家因违反反垄断规定而被起诉并每天受到媒体攻击的公司，其情绪得分近乎完美。因此，没有特殊的科技诅咒可以保证对该行业个股的负面情绪。苹果的情绪问题确实是它自己的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bc8cf3f8fc200c2b7a9c85e69cc9f2\" tg-width=\"488\" tg-height=\"461\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Which begs the question:</p><p><blockquote>这就引出了一个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Why?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>为什么？</i></blockquote></p><p> Apple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage –&nbsp;<b>Nintendo</b>(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.</p><p><blockquote>苹果是一只护城河宽阔的股票，是少数几家同时为大多数用户控制硬件和软件的科技公司之一。许多公司都试图复制苹果通过整合硬件和应用程序来实现收入最大化的战略，但成功的公司寥寥无几。如果你想要IOS或Mac OS体验，你需要一部iPhone或Mac。数十亿人想要这些体验，以至于愿意为苹果的产品支付高价。很少有其他科技公司拥有这种优势——<b>任天堂</b>（OTCPK：NTDOY）如果你把游戏算作技术，这是一个例外。</blockquote></p><p> This makes Apple arguably a&nbsp;wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated&nbsp;Apple ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote>这使得苹果可以说是一只宽护城河股票。你需要苹果硬件来运行苹果软件，而人们喜欢苹果软件。这使得苹果对某些软件体验集合拥有了 “垄断权”。它并不垄断任何特定的设备类别，但它是唯一一家能够提供集成苹果生态系统的公司。</blockquote></p><p> This advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the&nbsp;fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.</p><p><blockquote>这一优势为苹果股东带来了红利——无论是象征性的还是字面上的。按市值计算，苹果是全球最大的公司，按收入计算，是第四大公司。近年来，其收入增长率有所放缓，但某些细分市场（如手表和服务）的增长速度比以往任何时候都快。因此，苹果似乎仍有巨大的盈利能力和增长潜力。因此，我将在本文中阐述一个看涨苹果的论点，认为其坚实的经济护城河为其股票未来的升值提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments&nbsp;and entertainment.</p><p><blockquote>了解苹果最重要的事情之一是它的竞争地位。该公司在各种各样的不同市场开展业务，因此很难将其业务局限于 “技术 ”之外。从技术上讲，该公司的 SIC 代码（行业分类）是 7372，表示 “预打包软件”。然而，这并没有反映苹果业务活动的全部范围，因为它还涉及硬件、半导体、支付和娱乐等领域。</blockquote></p><p> Some of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最值得关注的竞争对手包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Samsung</b>(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>三星</b>（场外交易代码：SSNLF）-智能手机。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Huawei</b>- smartphones.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>华为</b>-智能手机。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Alphabet</b>(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>Alphabet</b>智能手机、笔记本电脑和软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Microsoft</b>(MSFT) - laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>微软</b>（MSFT）-笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Dell</b>(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>戴尔</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：戴尔）- 笔记本电脑。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Adobe</b>(ADBE) - creative software.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>土坯</b>（ADBE）-创意软件。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li>  <li>And many more.</p><p><blockquote><li>还有更多。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> A comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.</p><p><blockquote>由于该公司在许多不同的垂直领域开展业务，因此不可能列出苹果竞争对手的全面名单。除了上面所有的名字，苹果可以说是在与大型半导体公司竞争，因为它销售带有苹果芯片的手机和笔记本电脑。苹果是最全面的科技公司之一，拥有庞大的硬件、软件和服务阵容，与数十家公司进行默契竞争。</blockquote></p><p> How is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to&nbsp;Counterpoint Research&nbsp;and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:</p><p><blockquote>苹果在其竞争的行业中表现如何？根据 Counterpoint Research 和 Statista 的数据，苹果的市场份额包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Smartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>智能手机：美国47%，全球14%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Laptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>笔记本电脑：美国15%，全球7.6%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Smartwatches: over 50% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>智能手表：全球超过50%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Tablets: 35% globally.</p><p><blockquote><li>平板电脑：全球35%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> On the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and&nbsp;sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，苹果在其大部分市场都处于第一或第二的位置。它在智能手机销量上落后于三星，但在手表和平板电脑销量上领先。这是一个相当不错的市场地位。它会随着时间的推移而增长。苹果的一些产品类别仍然相当新。该公司最近才进军智能手表领域，该类别的销售额正以 50% 的速度增长。苹果最近因增长放缓而受到批评，但该公司产品线中的某些产品增长速度比以往任何时候都快。这为未来的强劲增长提供了潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The M1 Chip and Apple Services</b></p><p><blockquote><b>M1芯片和苹果服务</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:</p><p><blockquote>说到未来的增长，苹果最有前途的两个类别值得探讨：</blockquote></p><p> <i>The M1 Chip and Apple Services.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>M1芯片和苹果服务。</i></blockquote></p><p> The M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:</p><p><blockquote>M1芯片（现在真的是M1系列芯片）是苹果基于ARM架构设计的一款新芯片。基本配置拥有：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>An 8-core CPU.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>8核CPU。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>A 7-core GPU.</p><p><blockquote><li>7核GPU。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).</p><p><blockquote><li>8或16千兆字节的RAM（物理内置于芯片中）。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>5nm process.</p><p><blockquote><li>5nm工艺。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>16 billion transistors.</p><p><blockquote><li>160亿个晶体管。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>3.2 GHZ max clock rate.</p><p><blockquote><li>3.2 GHZ最大时钟速率。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Incredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless&nbsp;YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.</p><p><blockquote>难以置信的规格。最重要的是，还有两款新机型——M1 Pro和M1 Max——在基础机型的基础上进行了改进。列出这些高端机型的详细规格表会很乏味，但一个令人瞠目结舌的数据是 M1 Max 的 570 亿个晶体管。这与极高端游戏PC中包含的CPU竞争。当然，正如无数YouTube评论者指出的那样，这使得较新的Mac电脑本身可以作为游戏机。苹果已经在笔记本电脑和台式机领域占据了相当大的市场份额，但凭借M1芯片系列，它现在也有机会占领游戏领域。到目前为止，事实证明，这一细分市场对苹果来说难以捉摸。因此，苹果的计算机产品线有很大的加速增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> Next up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually&nbsp;lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been&nbsp;flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.</p><p><blockquote>接下来是苹果服务。这是一个广泛的类别，包括流媒体音乐、电影、书籍等。这一类别一直在扩大，并有可能在硬件增长放缓后推动更多增长。在最近一个季度，服务增长实际上落后于产品增长，后者为 25%，而后者为 30%。然而，服务是很有前途的，因为即使在硬件产品达到其总目标市场之后，服务这一类别仍有可能继续增长。经过多年的强劲增长，全球智能手机销量一直持平。在这种环境下，指望苹果的硬件销售额能像过去那样快速增长是不现实的。但通过向现有客户销售更多服务，即使硬件销售不佳，苹果也能继续增长总收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials and Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务及估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Now we can turn to Apple’s financials.</p><p><blockquote>现在我们可以看看苹果的财务状况了。</blockquote></p><p> Apple’s most recent quarter was a&nbsp;miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:</p><p><blockquote>苹果最近一个季度的收入和盈利均不佳；然而，从绝对角度来看，结果是强劲的。本季度，苹果实现了：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入 830 亿美元，增长 29%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.</p><p><blockquote><li>经营利润273亿美元，增长60%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润205亿美元，增长63%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释后每股收益为 1.24 美元，上涨 69%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.</p><p><blockquote>该公司还在第四季度报告中报告称，运营产生了 1040 亿美元的 TTM 现金。这比上一年增长了 28%。</blockquote></p><p> These were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to&nbsp;Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:</p><p><blockquote>这些都是相当可靠的结果。尤其是对于一家成熟的公司来说。苹果是世界上市值最大的公司，但其收入和盈利均高于成长型股票的水平。这一季度并非侥幸。根据 Seeking Alpha Quant 的数据，苹果在上述指标中的五年复合年增长率如下：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Revenue: 11%.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>收入：11%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Operating income: 12.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>经营利润：12.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Net income: 15.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>净利润：15.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Diluted EPS: 22%.</p><p><blockquote><li>稀释每股收益：22%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash flow: 10.7%.</p><p><blockquote><li>现金流：10.7%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Again very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:</p><p><blockquote>对于一家成熟的公司来说，这又是非常可靠的。最近一个季度看起来确实好于平均水平，但长期指标仍然非常好。这正是本文论文的核心所在：</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Apple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a&nbsp;PEG ratio of just 0.43&nbsp;for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.</p><p><blockquote>苹果绝对不是泡沫股。它的估值相当高，因为它的交易价格是市盈率的 30 倍、销售额的 7.7 倍和现金流的 26 倍。但该公司仍有很大的增长潜力。按年复合计算，其盈利增长率为 22%，正如最近一个季度所显示的那样，它还有加速增长的空间。如果同时考虑增长和价值，过去 12 个月的 PEG 比率仅为 0.43。这远非泡沫估值。事实上，它看起来非常便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks and Challenges</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险与挑战</b></blockquote></p><p> While Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:</p><p><blockquote>虽然苹果绝对是一家增长强劲、估值适中的超高利润公司，但其股票并非没有风险。作为一家大型硬件公司，它很容易受到供应链问题和其他冲击。本文概述的看涨论点的一些主要风险和挑战包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Supply chain issues.</b>The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company&nbsp;slashed iPhone production&nbsp;because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>供应链问题。</b>世界目前正在经历芯片短缺，以及各种其他高科技零部件的短缺。这些问题正在影响苹果。就在最近，由于供应链问题，该公司削减了iPhone的产量。就在关键的假期之前。对于像苹果这样依赖现成的原材料供应来保持销售的硬件公司来说，这类问题是一个无处不在的威胁。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Scale.</b>Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>比例。</b>从数学上讲，某件事变得越大，就需要更大的增长来推动与过去相同的百分比增长。如果你开始销售1000美元的小部件，并在第一年卖出一个，那么第二年只要卖出价值2000美元的小部件，你的销售额就会翻一番。然而，如果十年后，你的销售额达到了 3320 亿美元，那么你需要客户在第 11 年拿出 6640 亿美元，才能实现同样的增长。这在数学上是不太可能的。巧合的是，苹果第四季度 830 亿美元的收入年化达到了 3320 亿美元。因此，未来实现增长将更加困难。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Disruption.</b>Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself&nbsp;did this once, to&nbsp;<b>BlackBerry</b>(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&amp;D, you never know where the next threat will come from.</p><p><blockquote><li><b>中断。</b>苹果的商业模式要求其始终处于技术创新的前沿。如果另一家公司推出明显优于 iPhone 的产品，那可能会在一夜之间扼杀苹果的业务。苹果自己也做过一次，<b>黑莓</b>（BB），命运多舛的黑莓智能手机的制造商。科技行业的历史上充满了公司互相吃掉对方的午餐，虽然苹果有数十亿美元用于研发，但你永远不知道下一个威胁会来自哪里。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> The above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.</p><p><blockquote>以上是投资者需要牢记的一些非常真实的风险。尤其是供应链风险，非常真实，在几份季度报告中都被列为一个问题。话虽如此，苹果股票拥有令人难以置信的护城河、体面的增长和不合理的估值。这绝对不是一只可以做空的股票。虽然多头实现的收益在未来不会像过去那么好，但它们仍然应该是不错的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476363-apple-stock-no-bubble","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1164467804","content_text":"Summary\n\nApple stock has risen 34% this year, beating the NASDAQ 100 by a wide margin.\nThis has led some to say that the stock is in a bubble, as its price is rising rapidly.\nHowever, Apple's stock price gains are about in line with revenue growth, and actually slower than the most recent quarter's EPS growth.\nIn this article, I will develop a bullish thesis on Apple, arguing that it has a wide moat that will power future growth and profitability.\n\nJustin Sullivan/Getty Images News\nApple Inc.(AAPL) stock has delivered a solid performance in 2021. Up 35% for the year, it has solidly outperformed both the NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500. The latest in a long streak of winning years for the company, Apple’s 2021 shows that a stock is never too big to beat the market.\nWith that said, there’s no shortage of people who think Apple’s winning run is due for a correction. In recent weeks, we’ve seen a deluge of articles claiming that AAPL is overvalued, with titles like:\n\n“Apple Stock is Now a Bubble.”\n“Why Apple Stock May Be a Bubble That’s Ready to Burst.”\n“Sell AAPL? Why This Expert Sees Apple Stock Dipping 12%”\n\nNot all of these articles have been unambiguously bearish. A few mention positives along with negatives. But generally speaking, the sentiment that Apple is a bubble, or at least overvalued, is becoming common. If you look at TipRanks’ sentiment chart, it shows decisively negative sentiment toward Apple stock.\nSource: TipRanks’ sentiment chart\nThe bearishness of investor sentiment toward Apple becomes clear when we compare it to the sentiment toward Meta Platforms(FB). Meta, a company that is being sued for antitrust violations and getting attacked in the press daily, has a nearly perfect sentiment score. So there is no special tech curse that guarantees negative sentiment toward individual stocks in the sector. Apple’s sentiment problem is indeed its own problem.\n\nWhich begs the question:\nWhy?\nApple is a wide-moat stock, one of the few tech companies that controls both hardware and software for most of its users. Many companies have attempted to copy Apple’s strategy of maximizing revenue by integrating hardware and apps, but few have succeeded at it. If you want the IOS or Mac OS experience, you need an iPhone or Mac. And billions of people want those experiences enough to pay top dollar for Apple’s products. Few other tech companies have that advantage – Nintendo(OTCPK:NTDOY) being one exception, if you count gaming as tech.\nThis makes Apple arguably a wide-moat stock. You need Apple hardware to run Apple software, and people like Apple software. This gives Apple a “monopoly” on a certain collection of software experiences. It does not have a monopoly on any particular device category, but it’s the only company that can provide the integrated Apple ecosystem.\nThis advantage has paid dividends to Apple shareholders – both figuratively and literally. Apple is the world’s biggest company by market cap and the fourth-biggest by revenue. Its revenue growth rate has slowed in recent years, but certain segments (such as watches and services) are growing faster than ever. It appears, then, that Apple still has the potential for significant profitability and growth. Accordingly, I’ll develop a bullish thesis on Apple in this article, arguing that its solid economic moat provides potential for its stock to appreciate in the future.\nCompetitive Landscape\nOne of the most important things to understand about Apple is its competitive position. The company operates in such a wide variety of different markets that it’s hard to pin down its business beyond simply “tech.” Technically, the company’s SIC Code (industry classification) is 7372, denoting “prepackaged software.” However, this doesn’t capture the full extent of Apple’s business activities, as it’s also involved in hardware, semiconductors,payments and entertainment.\nSome of Apple’s most noteworthy competitors include:\n\nSamsung(OTC:SSNLF) - smartphones.\nHuawei- smartphones.\nAlphabet(GOOG) - smartphones, laptops, and software.\nMicrosoft(MSFT) - laptops.\nDell(NYSE:DELL)- laptops.\nAdobe(ADBE) - creative software.\nAnd many more.\n\nA comprehensive list of Apple’s competitors would be impossible to come up with, because the company operates in so many different verticals. In addition to all the names above, Apple is arguably in competition with the big semi companies, as it sells phones and laptops with Apple chips. Apple is one of the most comprehensive tech companies around, with a massive lineup of hardware, software and services, putting it in tacit competition with dozens of companies.\nHow is Apple doing in the industries it competes in? According to Counterpoint Research and Statista, Apple’s market shares include:\n\nSmartphones: 47% in the US and 14% globally.\nLaptops: 15% in the US and 7.6% globally.\nSmartwatches: over 50% globally.\nTablets: 35% globally.\n\nOn the whole, Apple is in first or second place in most of its markets. It’s behind Samsung on smartphone sales but it leads in watches and tablets. This is a pretty good market position. And it could grow over time. Some of Apple’s product categories are still fairly new. The company only just recently broke into smart watches and sales in the category are growing at 50%. Apple has taken heat lately for its slowing growth, but certain products within the company’s lineup are growing faster than ever. This provides potential for strong growth well into the future.\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services\nSpeaking of future growth, it’s worth exploring two of Apple’s most promising categories:\nThe M1 Chip and Apple Services.\nThe M1 Chip (really the M1 family of chips now) is a new chip designed by Apple based on ARM architecture. The base configuration boasts:\n\nAn 8-core CPU.\nA 7-core GPU.\n8 or 16 gigs of RAM (physically built into the chip).\n5nm process.\n16 billion transistors.\n3.2 GHZ max clock rate.\n\nIncredible specs. And on top of that, there are two new models–the M1 Pro and M1 Max–that offer improvements on the base model. It would be tedious to list detailed spec sheets for these higher end models, but one eye-popping stat is the M1 Max’s 57 billion transistors. This competes with the CPUs included in extremely high end gaming PCs. And of course, that makes newer Macs themselves viable as gaming rigs, as countless YouTube reviewers have noted. Apple already has a sizable market share in laptops and desktops, but with the M1 chip family, it now has a shot at capturing the gaming segment as well. Until now, that market segment has proven elusive to Apple. So, there is significant potential for accelerating growth in Apple’s computer lineup.\nNext up is Apple services. This is a broad category that includes streaming music, movies, books and more. This category is always expanding and could potentially drive more growth after hardware growth slows down. In the most recent quarter, service growth actually lagged product growth, at 25% vs 30% for the latter. However, services are promising because they’re a category that could continue to grow even after hardware products reach their total addressable market. Global smartphone sales have been flat-lining after years of strong growth. In this environment, it would be unrealistic to expect Apple’s hardware sales to grow as fast as they did in the past. But by selling more services to existing customers, Apple can keep growing its total revenue even as hardware sales underwhelm.\nFinancials and Valuation\nNow we can turn to Apple’s financials.\nApple’s most recent quarter was a miss on both revenue and earnings; however, the results were strong in absolute terms. In the quarter, Apple delivered:\n\n$83 billion in revenue, up 29%.\n$27.3 billion in operating income, up 60%.\n$20.5 billion in net income, up 63%.\n$1.24 in diluted EPS, up 69%.\n\nThe company also reported $104 billion in TTM cash from operations in its fourth quarter report. That was up 28% from the year before.\nThese were pretty solid results. Especially for a mature company. Apple is the biggest company in the world by market cap, yet its revenue and earnings are both up by growth stock levels. And this one quarter wasn’t a fluke. According to Seeking Alpha Quant, Apple’s five-year CAGR growth rates in the metrics listed above are:\n\nRevenue: 11%.\nOperating income: 12.7%.\nNet income: 15.7%.\nDiluted EPS: 22%.\nCash flow: 10.7%.\n\nAgain very solid for a mature company. It does look like the most recent quarter was better than average, but the long-term metrics are still very good. Which gets to the heart of this article’s thesis:\nApple is definitely not a bubble stock. Its valuation is fairly steep, as it trades at 30 times earnings, 7.7 times sales, and 26 times cash flow. But the company still has plenty of growth potential. Compounded annually, its earnings are growing at 22%, and as the most recent quarter showed, it has room for acceleration. If you factor in both growth and value, you get a PEG ratio of just 0.43 for the trailing 12-month period. That’s far from a bubble valuation. In fact, it looks downright cheap.\nRisks and Challenges\nWhile Apple is definitely an ultra-profitable company with strong growth and a moderate valuation, its stock is not without its risks. As a major hardware company, it is vulnerable to supply chain issues, and other shocks. Some major risks and challenges to the bullish thesis outlined in this article include:\n\nSupply chain issues.The world is currently going through a chip shortage, as well as shortages of various other hi-tech parts. These problems are affecting Apple. Just recently, the company slashed iPhone production because of supply chain issues. That right before the crucial Holiday season, no less. These kinds of problems are an ever-present threat for a hardware company like Apple, which depends on a ready supply of raw materials to keep sales flowing.\nScale.Mathematically, the bigger something gets, the larger of an increase is needed to drive percentage gains equal to past ones. If you start selling $1,000 widgets and sell one your first year, you double your sales just by selling $2,000 worth the next year. If, however, ten years later, you’re selling $332 billion worth, you need customers to come up with $664 billion in the eleventh year to achieve the same growth. This is mathematically unlikely. And as it just so happens, Apple’s $83 billion Q4 revenue annualizes to $332 billion. So growth will be harder to achieve going forward.\nDisruption.Apple’s business model requires that it stay on the leading edge of tech innovation. If another company comes out with something decisively superior to the iPhone, that could kill Apple’s business overnight. Apple itself did this once, to BlackBerry(BB), makers of the ill-fated BlackBerry Smartphone. The history of the tech industry is littered with companies eating each other's lunch, and while Apple has billions to spend on R&D, you never know where the next threat will come from.\n\nThe above are some very real risks for investors to keep in mind. The supply chain risk, in particular, is very real, having been cited as a problem in several quarterly reports. With that said, Apple stock has an incredible moat, decent growth, and a not-unreasonable valuation. This is definitely not a stock to short. And while the gains realized by longs will not be as good in the future as they were in the past, they should still be decent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691427982,"gmtCreate":1640230832756,"gmtModify":1640230832756,"author":{"id":"4094701214252590","authorId":"4094701214252590","name":"tabbicatty","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c37c880fb1db837d1d1d4d14150f23ab","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094701214252590","idStr":"4094701214252590"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691427982","repostId":"2193113147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}