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2021-11-02

wow

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2021-11-01

like

5 Stocks To Watch For November 1, 2021<blockquote>2021年11月1日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>

2021-11-03

thanks

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2021-11-16

ok

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2021-10-31

nice

Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote>

2021-11-15

nice

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2021-11-09

has he sold

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2021-11-09

nice

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2021-11-05

ok

Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>

2021-11-03

nice

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10:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Was ‘Wrong’ But Still Sees Lower S&P 500<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Wilson是“错误的”，但仍认为标普500较低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1172616795","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- One of Wall Street’s most skeptical stock-market strategists is sticking to his cauti","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- One of Wall Street’s most skeptical stock-market strategists is sticking to his cautious stance even while issuing a mea culpa for his bearish 2021 prediction.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——华尔街最持怀疑态度的股市策略师之一坚持谨慎立场，尽管他为2021年的悲观预测道歉。</blockquote></p><p> “Our S&amp;P 500 price targets proved to be too low -- i.e., wrong,” Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson wrote in a note to clients Monday. Still, “with financial conditions tightening and earnings growth slowing, the 12-month risk/reward for the broad indexes looks unattractive at current prices.”</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson周一在给客户的一份报告中写道：“事实证明，我们的标普500目标价太低，也就是错误的。”尽管如此，“随着金融状况收紧和盈利增长放缓，以当前价格计算，广泛指数的12个月风险/回报看起来没有吸引力。”</blockquote></p><p> In his base-case scenario, Wilson expects the benchmark gauge to slide to 4,400 over the next 12 months, implying a 6% decline from the index’s Friday close of 4,683. While S&amp;P 500 profits are projected to extend their expansion, reaching $245 a share in 2023, he warns that a growth slowdown and withdrawal of Federal Reserve stimulus will likely pressure equity valuations.</p><p><blockquote>在他的基本情景中，威尔逊预计该基准指数将在未来12个月内下滑至4,400点，这意味着该指数较周五收盘价4,683点下跌6%。虽然标普500的利润预计将扩大扩张，到2023年达到每股245美元，但他警告说，增长放缓和美联储刺激措施的退出可能会给股票估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> At the start of the year, Wilson called for the S&amp;P 500 to end 2021 at 3,900. Reflecting on his own forecast, Wilson acknowledges that he underestimated corporate America’s earnings power as well as investors’ willingness to pay up for shares. Profits from S&amp;P 500 firms in 2021 are on track to beat his estimate by 7%. At 21 times earnings, the index is trading at a multiple that’s two points higher than what he projected.</p><p><blockquote>今年年初，Wilson呼吁标普500在2021年底达到3,900人。反思自己的预测，威尔逊承认他低估了美国企业界的盈利能力以及投资者支付股票的意愿。标普500公司2021年的利润有望超出他的预期7%。该指数的市盈率为21倍，比他的预期高出两个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks have rallied this year, with the S&amp;P 500 up 25% and crushing the highest year-end target that Wall Street strategists envisioned in a January survey by Bloomberg. Along the way, the index has posted 65 all-time highs, making it poised for the second-most annual records ever, behind only 1995.</p><p><blockquote>今年股市上涨，标普500上涨25%，突破了华尔街策略师在彭博社1月份调查中设想的最高年终目标。一路走来，该指数已创下65个历史新高，有望成为有史以来第二高的年度记录，仅次于1995年。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Was ‘Wrong’ But Still Sees Lower S&P 500<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Wilson是“错误的”，但仍认为标普500较低</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley’s Wilson Was ‘Wrong’ But Still Sees Lower S&P 500<blockquote>摩根士丹利的Wilson是“错误的”，但仍认为标普500较低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-16 10:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- One of Wall Street’s most skeptical stock-market strategists is sticking to his cautious stance even while issuing a mea culpa for his bearish 2021 prediction.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——华尔街最持怀疑态度的股市策略师之一坚持谨慎立场，尽管他为2021年的悲观预测道歉。</blockquote></p><p> “Our S&amp;P 500 price targets proved to be too low -- i.e., wrong,” Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson wrote in a note to clients Monday. Still, “with financial conditions tightening and earnings growth slowing, the 12-month risk/reward for the broad indexes looks unattractive at current prices.”</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利首席美国股票策略师Mike Wilson周一在给客户的一份报告中写道：“事实证明，我们的标普500目标价太低，也就是错误的。”尽管如此，“随着金融状况收紧和盈利增长放缓，以当前价格计算，广泛指数的12个月风险/回报看起来没有吸引力。”</blockquote></p><p> In his base-case scenario, Wilson expects the benchmark gauge to slide to 4,400 over the next 12 months, implying a 6% decline from the index’s Friday close of 4,683. While S&amp;P 500 profits are projected to extend their expansion, reaching $245 a share in 2023, he warns that a growth slowdown and withdrawal of Federal Reserve stimulus will likely pressure equity valuations.</p><p><blockquote>在他的基本情景中，威尔逊预计该基准指数将在未来12个月内下滑至4,400点，这意味着该指数较周五收盘价4,683点下跌6%。虽然标普500的利润预计将扩大扩张，到2023年达到每股245美元，但他警告说，增长放缓和美联储刺激措施的退出可能会给股票估值带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> At the start of the year, Wilson called for the S&amp;P 500 to end 2021 at 3,900. Reflecting on his own forecast, Wilson acknowledges that he underestimated corporate America’s earnings power as well as investors’ willingness to pay up for shares. Profits from S&amp;P 500 firms in 2021 are on track to beat his estimate by 7%. At 21 times earnings, the index is trading at a multiple that’s two points higher than what he projected.</p><p><blockquote>今年年初，Wilson呼吁标普500在2021年底达到3,900人。反思自己的预测，威尔逊承认他低估了美国企业界的盈利能力以及投资者支付股票的意愿。标普500公司2021年的利润有望超出他的预期7%。该指数的市盈率为21倍，比他的预期高出两个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Stocks have rallied this year, with the S&amp;P 500 up 25% and crushing the highest year-end target that Wall Street strategists envisioned in a January survey by Bloomberg. Along the way, the index has posted 65 all-time highs, making it poised for the second-most annual records ever, behind only 1995.</p><p><blockquote>今年股市上涨，标普500上涨25%，突破了华尔街策略师在彭博社1月份调查中设想的最高年终目标。一路走来，该指数已创下65个历史新高，有望成为有史以来第二高的年度记录，仅次于1995年。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-wilson-wrong-still-164926102.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/morgan-stanley-wilson-wrong-still-164926102.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1172616795","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- One of Wall Street’s most skeptical stock-market strategists is sticking to his cautious stance even while issuing a mea culpa for his bearish 2021 prediction.\n“Our S&P 500 price targets proved to be too low -- i.e., wrong,” Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. equity strategist Mike Wilson wrote in a note to clients Monday. Still, “with financial conditions tightening and earnings growth slowing, the 12-month risk/reward for the broad indexes looks unattractive at current prices.”\nIn his base-case scenario, Wilson expects the benchmark gauge to slide to 4,400 over the next 12 months, implying a 6% decline from the index’s Friday close of 4,683. While S&P 500 profits are projected to extend their expansion, reaching $245 a share in 2023, he warns that a growth slowdown and withdrawal of Federal Reserve stimulus will likely pressure equity valuations.\nAt the start of the year, Wilson called for the S&P 500 to end 2021 at 3,900. Reflecting on his own forecast, Wilson acknowledges that he underestimated corporate America’s earnings power as well as investors’ willingness to pay up for shares. Profits from S&P 500 firms in 2021 are on track to beat his estimate by 7%. At 21 times earnings, the index is trading at a multiple that’s two points higher than what he projected.\nStocks have rallied this year, with the S&P 500 up 25% and crushing the highest year-end target that Wall Street strategists envisioned in a January survey by Bloomberg. Along the way, the index has posted 65 all-time highs, making it poised for the second-most annual records ever, behind only 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23:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buffett Signals Caution With Berkshire on Stock-Selling Streak<blockquote>巴菲特对伯克希尔哈撒韦公司连续抛售股票表示谨慎</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1190184675","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett is signaling wariness with the soaring stock market as the billionaire","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett is signaling wariness with the soaring stock market as the billionaire investor extends a selling streak.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——随着亿万富翁投资者沃伦·巴菲特继续抛售，他对股市飙升表示谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. was a net seller of equities for the fourth straight quarter, a trend not seen in data going back to 2008. The company ended up selling almost $2 billion more in stocks than it purchased during the period, adding to a cash pile that climbed to a record $149.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司连续第四个季度成为股票净卖家，这一趋势在2008年的数据中从未出现过。该公司最终出售的股票比在此期间购买的股票多了近20亿美元，现金储备攀升至创纪录的1,492亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The selling streak indicates Buffett has struggled to find bargains with the stock market hitting all-time highs. A big, splashy acquisition also eluded the conglomerate, as the 91-year old and his investing deputies confronted a combination of sky-high price tags and fierce competition from the wave of special purpose acquisition companies.</p><p><blockquote>连续抛售表明，随着股市创下历史新高，巴菲特一直在努力寻找便宜货。由于这位91岁的老人和他的投资副手面临着天价标签和来自特殊目的收购公司浪潮的激烈竞争，该集团也未能进行一次引人注目的大型收购。</blockquote></p><p> “The big issue here is that Berkshire was a net seller of stocks again this quarter,” Jim Shanahan, an analyst with Edward Jones, said in a telephone interview. “That’s the primary culprit” of the cash pile continuing to rise.</p><p><blockquote>爱德华·琼斯(Edward Jones)分析师吉姆·沙纳汉(Jim Shanahan)在接受电话采访时表示：“最大的问题是，伯克希尔本季度再次成为股票净卖家。”“这是现金储备持续上升的罪魁祸首”。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire’s sales appear to have largely come from cutting holdings in banks, insurance and financial investments, according to its third-quarter regulatory filing released Saturday. Berkshire has been paring certain stocks in recent periods, spending the second quarter trimming its investment in General Motors Co. and pulling back on some of its pharmaceutical bets. The company is set to release its third-quarter stock tweaks later this month.</p><p><blockquote>根据伯克希尔周六发布的第三季度监管文件，伯克希尔的销售额似乎主要来自于削减银行、保险和金融投资的持股。伯克希尔哈撒韦公司最近一直在削减某些股票，第二季度削减了对通用汽车公司的投资，并撤回了部分制药押注。该公司将于本月晚些时候发布第三季度股票调整。</blockquote></p><p> While Buffett’s been a consistent net seller these past four quarters, those sales have been relatively small compared with the massive size of his stock portfolio. Over the past nine months, he’s sold almost $7 billion more of stocks than he’s bought, roughly 2.2% of the fair value of Berkshire’s stock portfolio at the end of September.</p><p><blockquote>尽管巴菲特在过去四个季度一直是净卖家，但与他庞大的股票投资组合规模相比，这些销售额相对较小。在过去的九个月里，他卖出的股票比买入的多了近70亿美元，约占伯克希尔9月底股票投资组合公允价值的2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett warned investors in May that Berkshire might not have much luck striking deals as SPACs gripped the market -- though he also predicted the boom probably wouldn’t last. Compounding the challenge, his most recent big acquisition, the $37 billion deal for Precision Castparts five years ago, resulted in a writedown that Buffett laid squarely at his own door.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在5月份警告投资者，随着SPAC席卷市场，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司在达成交易方面可能运气不佳，尽管他也预测这种繁荣可能不会持续下去。让挑战变得更加复杂的是，他最近的一次重大收购，即五年前以370亿美元收购Precision Castparts的交易，导致了巴菲特直接将其记入了自己的账户。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire isn’t alone in extending a cash pile amid the pandemic. Amazon.com Inc., Google-parent Alphabet Inc. and American Airlines Group Inc. were among companies that amassed significant holdings during the health crisis in a step analysts have said would likely lead to some acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔并不是唯一一家在疫情期间增加现金储备的公司。亚马逊公司、谷歌母公司Alphabet公司和美国航空集团公司等公司在健康危机期间增持了大量股份，分析师表示，此举可能会导致一些收购。</blockquote></p><p> And the rising cash pile is better than the alternative in the eyes of investors including Cheviot Value Management’s Darren Pollock. Even though Buffett’s cash pile still increased to a record despite the $7.6 billion of buybacks in the third quarter, Pollock says it’s a good sign about the health of Berkshire.</p><p><blockquote>在包括Cheviot Value Management的达伦·波洛克(Darren Pollock)在内的投资者看来，不断增加的现金储备比其他选择更好。尽管第三季度回购了76亿美元，但巴菲特的现金储备仍增至创纪录水平，波洛克表示，这是伯克希尔健康状况的一个好迹象。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re happy with it because the alternative is that cash isn’t growing as much and that means that Berkshire’s operating companies aren’t of as high quality as we thought,” said Pollock, whose Cheviot owns shares in Berkshire. “To see that the cash is rising, to see that he’s deploying so much in one avenue which happens to be buybacks -- it’s not acquisitions -- but it’s being spent in a productive way, it’s so much better than the alternative of seeing that cash stabilize or decline without other large acquisitions.”</p><p><blockquote>波洛克表示：“我们对此感到满意，因为另一种选择是现金没有增长那么多，这意味着伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的运营公司质量没有我们想象的那么高。”波洛克的切维奥特拥有伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股份。“看到现金在增加，看到他在一个恰好是回购的途径上部署了如此多的资金——而不是收购——但这些资金是以富有成效的方式使用的，这比看到现金的替代方案要好得多如果没有其他大型收购，现金就会稳定或下降。”</blockquote></p><p> Here are some other key takeaways from Berkshire’s third-quarter earnings on Saturday:</p><p><blockquote>以下是伯克希尔周六第三季度财报的其他一些关键要点：</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Appetite</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔的胃口</blockquote></p><p> Buffett has increasingly leaned on share buybacks as one way to deploy billions of dollars. He’s spent about $51 billion on stock buybacks since a policy tweak in 2018, outpacing the $31 billion used to purchase shares of Apple Inc., Berkshire’s largest stock bet.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特越来越依赖股票回购作为部署数十亿美元的一种方式。自2018年政策调整以来，伯克希尔在股票回购上花费了约510亿美元，超过了用于购买苹果股票的310亿美元，这是伯克希尔最大的股票赌注。</blockquote></p><p> In the third quarter, Berkshire bought back $7.6 billion of stock, surpassing the $6 billion of shares repurchased in the previous period.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度，伯克希尔回购了76亿美元的股票，超过了上一期回购的60亿美元股票。</blockquote></p><p> BNSF’s Record</p><p><blockquote>BNSF的记录</blockquote></p><p> Record profit at Berkshire’s railroad, BNSF, and strong earnings from its energy businesses helped raise operating profit by 18% at the conglomerate during the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔旗下铁路公司BNSF创纪录的利润及其能源业务的强劲收益帮助该集团第三季度的营业利润提高了18%。</blockquote></p><p> That also aided in offsetting a painful quarter for Berkshire’s insurers. Those businesses reported an underwriting loss that widened to $784 million amid heightened catastrophe costs and worsening claims trends at auto insurer Geico.</p><p><blockquote>这也有助于抵消伯克希尔保险公司痛苦的季度。这些企业报告称，由于汽车保险公司Geico的灾难成本增加和索赔趋势恶化，承保损失扩大至7.84亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buffett Signals Caution With Berkshire on Stock-Selling Streak<blockquote>巴菲特对伯克希尔哈撒韦公司连续抛售股票表示谨慎</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuffett Signals Caution With Berkshire on Stock-Selling Streak<blockquote>巴菲特对伯克希尔哈撒韦公司连续抛售股票表示谨慎</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-08 23:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett is signaling wariness with the soaring stock market as the billionaire investor extends a selling streak.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——随着亿万富翁投资者沃伦·巴菲特继续抛售，他对股市飙升表示谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. was a net seller of equities for the fourth straight quarter, a trend not seen in data going back to 2008. The company ended up selling almost $2 billion more in stocks than it purchased during the period, adding to a cash pile that climbed to a record $149.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司连续第四个季度成为股票净卖家，这一趋势在2008年的数据中从未出现过。该公司最终出售的股票比在此期间购买的股票多了近20亿美元，现金储备攀升至创纪录的1,492亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> The selling streak indicates Buffett has struggled to find bargains with the stock market hitting all-time highs. A big, splashy acquisition also eluded the conglomerate, as the 91-year old and his investing deputies confronted a combination of sky-high price tags and fierce competition from the wave of special purpose acquisition companies.</p><p><blockquote>连续抛售表明，随着股市创下历史新高，巴菲特一直在努力寻找便宜货。由于这位91岁的老人和他的投资副手面临着天价标签和来自特殊目的收购公司浪潮的激烈竞争，该集团也未能进行一次引人注目的大型收购。</blockquote></p><p> “The big issue here is that Berkshire was a net seller of stocks again this quarter,” Jim Shanahan, an analyst with Edward Jones, said in a telephone interview. “That’s the primary culprit” of the cash pile continuing to rise.</p><p><blockquote>爱德华·琼斯(Edward Jones)分析师吉姆·沙纳汉(Jim Shanahan)在接受电话采访时表示：“最大的问题是，伯克希尔本季度再次成为股票净卖家。”“这是现金储备持续上升的罪魁祸首”。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire’s sales appear to have largely come from cutting holdings in banks, insurance and financial investments, according to its third-quarter regulatory filing released Saturday. Berkshire has been paring certain stocks in recent periods, spending the second quarter trimming its investment in General Motors Co. and pulling back on some of its pharmaceutical bets. The company is set to release its third-quarter stock tweaks later this month.</p><p><blockquote>根据伯克希尔周六发布的第三季度监管文件，伯克希尔的销售额似乎主要来自于削减银行、保险和金融投资的持股。伯克希尔哈撒韦公司最近一直在削减某些股票，第二季度削减了对通用汽车公司的投资，并撤回了部分制药押注。该公司将于本月晚些时候发布第三季度股票调整。</blockquote></p><p> While Buffett’s been a consistent net seller these past four quarters, those sales have been relatively small compared with the massive size of his stock portfolio. Over the past nine months, he’s sold almost $7 billion more of stocks than he’s bought, roughly 2.2% of the fair value of Berkshire’s stock portfolio at the end of September.</p><p><blockquote>尽管巴菲特在过去四个季度一直是净卖家，但与他庞大的股票投资组合规模相比，这些销售额相对较小。在过去的九个月里，他卖出的股票比买入的多了近70亿美元，约占伯克希尔9月底股票投资组合公允价值的2.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Buffett warned investors in May that Berkshire might not have much luck striking deals as SPACs gripped the market -- though he also predicted the boom probably wouldn’t last. Compounding the challenge, his most recent big acquisition, the $37 billion deal for Precision Castparts five years ago, resulted in a writedown that Buffett laid squarely at his own door.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在5月份警告投资者，随着SPAC席卷市场，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司在达成交易方面可能运气不佳，尽管他也预测这种繁荣可能不会持续下去。让挑战变得更加复杂的是，他最近的一次重大收购，即五年前以370亿美元收购Precision Castparts的交易，导致了巴菲特直接将其记入了自己的账户。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire isn’t alone in extending a cash pile amid the pandemic. Amazon.com Inc., Google-parent Alphabet Inc. and American Airlines Group Inc. were among companies that amassed significant holdings during the health crisis in a step analysts have said would likely lead to some acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔并不是唯一一家在疫情期间增加现金储备的公司。亚马逊公司、谷歌母公司Alphabet公司和美国航空集团公司等公司在健康危机期间增持了大量股份，分析师表示，此举可能会导致一些收购。</blockquote></p><p> And the rising cash pile is better than the alternative in the eyes of investors including Cheviot Value Management’s Darren Pollock. Even though Buffett’s cash pile still increased to a record despite the $7.6 billion of buybacks in the third quarter, Pollock says it’s a good sign about the health of Berkshire.</p><p><blockquote>在包括Cheviot Value Management的达伦·波洛克(Darren Pollock)在内的投资者看来，不断增加的现金储备比其他选择更好。尽管第三季度回购了76亿美元，但巴菲特的现金储备仍增至创纪录水平，波洛克表示，这是伯克希尔健康状况的一个好迹象。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re happy with it because the alternative is that cash isn’t growing as much and that means that Berkshire’s operating companies aren’t of as high quality as we thought,” said Pollock, whose Cheviot owns shares in Berkshire. “To see that the cash is rising, to see that he’s deploying so much in one avenue which happens to be buybacks -- it’s not acquisitions -- but it’s being spent in a productive way, it’s so much better than the alternative of seeing that cash stabilize or decline without other large acquisitions.”</p><p><blockquote>波洛克表示：“我们对此感到满意，因为另一种选择是现金没有增长那么多，这意味着伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的运营公司质量没有我们想象的那么高。”波洛克的切维奥特拥有伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的股份。“看到现金在增加，看到他在一个恰好是回购的途径上部署了如此多的资金——而不是收购——但这些资金是以富有成效的方式使用的，这比看到现金的替代方案要好得多如果没有其他大型收购，现金就会稳定或下降。”</blockquote></p><p> Here are some other key takeaways from Berkshire’s third-quarter earnings on Saturday:</p><p><blockquote>以下是伯克希尔周六第三季度财报的其他一些关键要点：</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire Appetite</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔的胃口</blockquote></p><p> Buffett has increasingly leaned on share buybacks as one way to deploy billions of dollars. He’s spent about $51 billion on stock buybacks since a policy tweak in 2018, outpacing the $31 billion used to purchase shares of Apple Inc., Berkshire’s largest stock bet.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特越来越依赖股票回购作为部署数十亿美元的一种方式。自2018年政策调整以来，伯克希尔在股票回购上花费了约510亿美元，超过了用于购买苹果股票的310亿美元，这是伯克希尔最大的股票赌注。</blockquote></p><p> In the third quarter, Berkshire bought back $7.6 billion of stock, surpassing the $6 billion of shares repurchased in the previous period.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度，伯克希尔回购了76亿美元的股票，超过了上一期回购的60亿美元股票。</blockquote></p><p> BNSF’s Record</p><p><blockquote>BNSF的记录</blockquote></p><p> Record profit at Berkshire’s railroad, BNSF, and strong earnings from its energy businesses helped raise operating profit by 18% at the conglomerate during the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔旗下铁路公司BNSF创纪录的利润及其能源业务的强劲收益帮助该集团第三季度的营业利润提高了18%。</blockquote></p><p> That also aided in offsetting a painful quarter for Berkshire’s insurers. Those businesses reported an underwriting loss that widened to $784 million amid heightened catastrophe costs and worsening claims trends at auto insurer Geico.</p><p><blockquote>这也有助于抵消伯克希尔保险公司痛苦的季度。这些企业报告称，由于汽车保险公司Geico的灾难成本增加和索赔趋势恶化，承保损失扩大至7.84亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-signals-caution-berkshire-stock-140819517.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-signals-caution-berkshire-stock-140819517.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1190184675","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett is signaling wariness with the soaring stock market as the billionaire investor extends a selling streak.\nBuffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. was a net seller of equities for the fourth straight quarter, a trend not seen in data going back to 2008. The company ended up selling almost $2 billion more in stocks than it purchased during the period, adding to a cash pile that climbed to a record $149.2 billion.\nThe selling streak indicates Buffett has struggled to find bargains with the stock market hitting all-time highs. A big, splashy acquisition also eluded the conglomerate, as the 91-year old and his investing deputies confronted a combination of sky-high price tags and fierce competition from the wave of special purpose acquisition companies.\n“The big issue here is that Berkshire was a net seller of stocks again this quarter,” Jim Shanahan, an analyst with Edward Jones, said in a telephone interview. “That’s the primary culprit” of the cash pile continuing to rise.\nBerkshire’s sales appear to have largely come from cutting holdings in banks, insurance and financial investments, according to its third-quarter regulatory filing released Saturday. Berkshire has been paring certain stocks in recent periods, spending the second quarter trimming its investment in General Motors Co. and pulling back on some of its pharmaceutical bets. The company is set to release its third-quarter stock tweaks later this month.\nWhile Buffett’s been a consistent net seller these past four quarters, those sales have been relatively small compared with the massive size of his stock portfolio. Over the past nine months, he’s sold almost $7 billion more of stocks than he’s bought, roughly 2.2% of the fair value of Berkshire’s stock portfolio at the end of September.\nBuffett warned investors in May that Berkshire might not have much luck striking deals as SPACs gripped the market -- though he also predicted the boom probably wouldn’t last. Compounding the challenge, his most recent big acquisition, the $37 billion deal for Precision Castparts five years ago, resulted in a writedown that Buffett laid squarely at his own door.\nBerkshire isn’t alone in extending a cash pile amid the pandemic. Amazon.com Inc., Google-parent Alphabet Inc. and American Airlines Group Inc. were among companies that amassed significant holdings during the health crisis in a step analysts have said would likely lead to some acquisitions.\nAnd the rising cash pile is better than the alternative in the eyes of investors including Cheviot Value Management’s Darren Pollock. Even though Buffett’s cash pile still increased to a record despite the $7.6 billion of buybacks in the third quarter, Pollock says it’s a good sign about the health of Berkshire.\n“We’re happy with it because the alternative is that cash isn’t growing as much and that means that Berkshire’s operating companies aren’t of as high quality as we thought,” said Pollock, whose Cheviot owns shares in Berkshire. “To see that the cash is rising, to see that he’s deploying so much in one avenue which happens to be buybacks -- it’s not acquisitions -- but it’s being spent in a productive way, it’s so much better than the alternative of seeing that cash stabilize or decline without other large acquisitions.”\nHere are some other key takeaways from Berkshire’s third-quarter earnings on Saturday:\nBerkshire Appetite\nBuffett has increasingly leaned on share buybacks as one way to deploy billions of dollars. He’s spent about $51 billion on stock buybacks since a policy tweak in 2018, outpacing the $31 billion used to purchase shares of Apple Inc., Berkshire’s largest stock bet.\nIn the third quarter, Berkshire bought back $7.6 billion of stock, surpassing the $6 billion of shares repurchased in the previous period.\nBNSF’s Record\nRecord profit at Berkshire’s railroad, BNSF, and strong earnings from its energy businesses helped raise operating profit by 18% at the conglomerate during the third quarter.\nThat also aided in offsetting a painful quarter for Berkshire’s insurers. Those businesses reported an underwriting loss that widened to $784 million amid heightened catastrophe costs and worsening claims trends at auto insurer Geico.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842085350,"gmtCreate":1636120838897,"gmtModify":1636120838994,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842085350","repostId":"1156660858","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156660858","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1636113788,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156660858?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 20:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156660858","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Futures tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit a record high on Friday, boosted by a batch of s","content":"<p>Futures tracking the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit a record high on Friday, boosted by a batch of strong earnings reports and Pfizer, while investors looked to monthly employment data for clues on the pace of economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>受一批强劲财报和辉瑞的提振，跟踪标普500和纳斯达克指数的期货周五创下历史新高，而投资者则从月度就业数据中寻找经济增长步伐的线索。</blockquote></p><p> At 08:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 54 points, or 0.15%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 10.75 points, or 0.23%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 23.75 points, or 0.15%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午08:00，道指e-mini上涨54点，涨幅0.15%，标普500 e-mini上涨10.75点，涨幅0.23%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨23.75点，涨幅0.15%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e1332bf1b10c768776f84a7da4d481e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Travel stocks rose following the news, with American Airline , United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, cruise operators Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise rising between 2% and 4%.</p><p><blockquote>消息传出后，旅游股上涨，美国航空、联合航空、达美航空、邮轮运营商嘉年华公司和挪威邮轮上涨2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in October while the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, the Labor Department reported Friday.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 531,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 450,000. The unemployment rate had been expected to edge down to 4.7%.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五报告称，10月份美国经济新增就业岗位超出预期，失业率降至4.6%。当月非农就业人数增加53.1万人，而道琼斯估计为45万人。失业率预计将小幅下降至4.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on Friday on the social policy and climate-change bill and a bipartisan infrastructure bill.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美国众议院预计将于周五就社会政策和气候变化法案以及两党基础设施法案进行投票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Pfizer(PFE)</b> – The drug maker's shares surged 10.4% in premarket trading after a study showed that its experimental Covid-19 antiviral pill reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by nearly 90%. Pfizer said it will ask regulators to approve the pill as soon as possible.</p><p><blockquote><b>辉瑞(PFE)</b>-一项研究显示，该制药商的实验性Covid-19抗病毒药物可将住院和死亡风险降低近90%，该制药商的股价在盘前交易中飙升10.4%。辉瑞表示，将要求监管机构尽快批准该药物。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DraftKings(DKNG)</b> – The sports betting company’s stock slid 10% in the premarket after it reported a wider-than-expected loss and revenue that fell short of Street forecasts. DraftKings did raise the midpoint of its fiscal 2021 revenue guidance and said it expected a strong 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>DraftKings(DKNG)</b>–这家体育博彩公司公布亏损超出预期且收入低于华尔街预测，该公司股价在盘前下跌10%。DraftKings确实提高了2021财年收入指引的中点，并表示预计2022财年将表现强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Nvidia(NVDA)&nbsp;</b>–&nbsp;Nvidia shares rose&nbsp;3% in premarket trading Friday&nbsp;after a 12% rise yesterday.Well Fargo Securities analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated an Overweight rating on Nvidia and bumped up the price target from $245 to $320.</p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达(NVDA)</b>-英伟达股价继昨天上涨12%后，周五盘前交易中上涨3%。富国证券分析师Aaron Rakers重申了对英伟达的跑赢大盘评级，并将目标价从245美元上调至320美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Peloton(PTON)</b> – Peloton tumbled 33% in the premarket after the fitness equipment maker slashed its full-year sales forecast by $1 billion, amid slowing demand for bikes and treadmills. Peloton also reported a quarterly loss of $1.21 per share, wider than the $1.07 loss expected by analysts, and revenue fell short of estimates as well.</p><p><blockquote><b>Peloton(PTON)</b>-由于自行车和跑步机需求放缓，健身器材制造商Peloton将全年销售额预测下调了10亿美元，盘前股价暴跌33%。Peloton还报告季度每股亏损1.21美元，高于分析师预期的1.07美元，营收也低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expedia(EXPE)</b> – Expedia earned an adjusted $3.53 per share for its latest quarter, well above the $1.65 consensus estimate. Revenue was also higher than expected, with the travel services company benefiting from the surge in travel demand. Expedia soared 13.7% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>Expedia(EXPE)</b>-Expedia最近一个季度调整后每股收益为3.53美元，远高于市场普遍预期的1.65美元。收入也高于预期，这家旅游服务公司受益于旅行需求的激增。Expedia在盘前交易中飙升13.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Airbnb(ABNB)</b> – Airbnb rallied 5.9% in the premarket as the travel-demand surge lifted sales and earnings beyond Wall Street forecasts. Airbnb earned $1.22 per share for its latest quarter, beating the $0.75 consensus estimate, with sales coming in at a record high. The company also said it expects a strong holiday season.</p><p><blockquote><b>爱彼迎(ABNB)</b>-爱彼迎盘前上涨5.9%，因旅游需求激增推动销售额和盈利超出华尔街预期。爱彼迎最近一个季度每股收益1.22美元，超过市场普遍预期的0.75美元，销售额创历史新高。该公司还表示，预计假期将会很强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Uber Technologies(UBER) </b>– Uber reported its first profitable quarter on an adjusted basis, thanks to upbeat performances by its ride-sharing and food delivery services. It did post an overall loss due to the drop in value of its stake in China ride-hailing company&nbsp;Didi(DIDI). Uber rose 2.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>优步科技(UBER)</b>-由于拼车和送餐服务的乐观表现，优步报告了调整后的第一个盈利季度。由于其在中国网约车公司滴滴（DIDI）的股份价值下跌，该公司确实出现了整体亏损。Uber在盘前交易中上涨2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pinterest(PINS)</b> – Pinterest came in 5 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 28 cents per share, and the image-sharing site operator’s revenue also topped analyst forecasts. It is also predicting an upbeat current quarter as the online retailer spends more on holiday season ads. Pinterest jumped 3.8% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>Pinterest(PINS)</b>-Pinterest调整后季度利润为每股28美分，比预期高出5美分，这家图像共享网站运营商的收入也超出了分析师的预期。它还预测，随着这家在线零售商在假日广告上的支出增加，本季度将会乐观。Pinterest在盘前股价上涨3.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Square(SQ)</b> -Square matched estimates with quarterly earnings of 37 cents per share, while the mobile payments company’s revenue missed forecasts. Square did see a nearly 60% rise in profit from a year earlier, thanks in large part to a surge in bitcoin transactions, but the stock dropped 3.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>平方(SQ)</b>-Square的季度收益为每股37美分，符合预期，而这家移动支付公司的收入未达到预期。Square的利润确实较上年同期增长了近60%，这在很大程度上要归功于比特币交易的激增，但该股在盘前交易中下跌了3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Canopy Growth(CGC)</b> – The Canadian cannabis producer lost 3 cents per share for its latest quarter, smaller than the 20-cent loss expected by analysts. However, revenue fell short of estimates and the company flagged slower-than-expected revenue growth for the second half of fiscal 2022. The stock fell 2.7% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>冠层生长(CGC)</b>-这家加拿大大麻生产商最近一个季度每股亏损3美分，小于分析师预期的20美分亏损。然而，收入低于预期，该公司表示2022财年下半年的收入增长低于预期。该股盘前下跌2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shake Shack(SHAK)</b> – Shake Shack reported a quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, 1 cent less than Wall Street had anticipated, but the restaurant chain’s sales missed analyst forecasts. Despite the revenue miss, Shake Shack rallied 7.6% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>Shake Shack(SHAK)</b>-Shake Shack公布季度每股亏损5美分，比华尔街预期少1美分，但该连锁餐厅的销售额未达到分析师预期。尽管营收未达预期，Shake Shack盘前仍上涨7.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Canada Goose(GOOS)</b> – The outerwear maker reported an unexpected profit for its latest quarter along with better-than-expected revenue, and also raised its full-year forecast. Canada Goose also said it’s seeing an indication of a strong winter season, and shares jumped 7.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>加拿大鹅(GOOS)</b>-这家外套制造商公布了最近一个季度的意外利润以及好于预期的收入，并上调了全年预期。Canada Goose还表示，它看到了冬季强劲的迹象，股价在盘前上涨了7.4%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Live Nation Entertainment(LYV) </b>– Live Nation shares rallied 5.4% in premarket action after the event promoter returned to profit amid a sales surge as live events returned. Results exceeded analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote><b>现场国家娱乐(LYV)</b>-Live Nation股价在盘前上涨5.4%，此前随着现场活动回归，销售额激增，活动主办方恢复盈利。结果超出了分析师的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lions Gate Entertainment(LGF)</b> – The movie and tv studio is considering a sale or spin-off of its Starz premium cable channel, saying it sees the potential to unlock significant shareholder value. The stock surged 15.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>狮门娱乐(LGF)</b>-该电影和电视工作室正在考虑出售或分拆其Starz付费有线频道，称其看到了释放巨大股东价值的潜力。该股盘前飙升15.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-05 20:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Futures tracking the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit a record high on Friday, boosted by a batch of strong earnings reports and Pfizer, while investors looked to monthly employment data for clues on the pace of economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>受一批强劲财报和辉瑞的提振，跟踪标普500和纳斯达克指数的期货周五创下历史新高，而投资者则从月度就业数据中寻找经济增长步伐的线索。</blockquote></p><p> At 08:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 54 points, or 0.15%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 10.75 points, or 0.23%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 23.75 points, or 0.15%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午08:00，道指e-mini上涨54点，涨幅0.15%，标普500 e-mini上涨10.75点，涨幅0.23%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨23.75点，涨幅0.15%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e1332bf1b10c768776f84a7da4d481e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Travel stocks rose following the news, with American Airline , United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, cruise operators Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise rising between 2% and 4%.</p><p><blockquote>消息传出后，旅游股上涨，美国航空、联合航空、达美航空、邮轮运营商嘉年华公司和挪威邮轮上涨2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in October while the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, the Labor Department reported Friday.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 531,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 450,000. The unemployment rate had been expected to edge down to 4.7%.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五报告称，10月份美国经济新增就业岗位超出预期，失业率降至4.6%。当月非农就业人数增加53.1万人，而道琼斯估计为45万人。失业率预计将小幅下降至4.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on Friday on the social policy and climate-change bill and a bipartisan infrastructure bill.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美国众议院预计将于周五就社会政策和气候变化法案以及两党基础设施法案进行投票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Pfizer(PFE)</b> – The drug maker's shares surged 10.4% in premarket trading after a study showed that its experimental Covid-19 antiviral pill reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by nearly 90%. Pfizer said it will ask regulators to approve the pill as soon as possible.</p><p><blockquote><b>辉瑞(PFE)</b>-一项研究显示，该制药商的实验性Covid-19抗病毒药物可将住院和死亡风险降低近90%，该制药商的股价在盘前交易中飙升10.4%。辉瑞表示，将要求监管机构尽快批准该药物。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DraftKings(DKNG)</b> – The sports betting company’s stock slid 10% in the premarket after it reported a wider-than-expected loss and revenue that fell short of Street forecasts. DraftKings did raise the midpoint of its fiscal 2021 revenue guidance and said it expected a strong 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>DraftKings(DKNG)</b>–这家体育博彩公司公布亏损超出预期且收入低于华尔街预测，该公司股价在盘前下跌10%。DraftKings确实提高了2021财年收入指引的中点，并表示预计2022财年将表现强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Nvidia(NVDA)&nbsp;</b>–&nbsp;Nvidia shares rose&nbsp;3% in premarket trading Friday&nbsp;after a 12% rise yesterday.Well Fargo Securities analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated an Overweight rating on Nvidia and bumped up the price target from $245 to $320.</p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达(NVDA)</b>-英伟达股价继昨天上涨12%后，周五盘前交易中上涨3%。富国证券分析师Aaron Rakers重申了对英伟达的跑赢大盘评级，并将目标价从245美元上调至320美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Peloton(PTON)</b> – Peloton tumbled 33% in the premarket after the fitness equipment maker slashed its full-year sales forecast by $1 billion, amid slowing demand for bikes and treadmills. Peloton also reported a quarterly loss of $1.21 per share, wider than the $1.07 loss expected by analysts, and revenue fell short of estimates as well.</p><p><blockquote><b>Peloton(PTON)</b>-由于自行车和跑步机需求放缓，健身器材制造商Peloton将全年销售额预测下调了10亿美元，盘前股价暴跌33%。Peloton还报告季度每股亏损1.21美元，高于分析师预期的1.07美元，营收也低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expedia(EXPE)</b> – Expedia earned an adjusted $3.53 per share for its latest quarter, well above the $1.65 consensus estimate. Revenue was also higher than expected, with the travel services company benefiting from the surge in travel demand. Expedia soared 13.7% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>Expedia(EXPE)</b>-Expedia最近一个季度调整后每股收益为3.53美元，远高于市场普遍预期的1.65美元。收入也高于预期，这家旅游服务公司受益于旅行需求的激增。Expedia在盘前交易中飙升13.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Airbnb(ABNB)</b> – Airbnb rallied 5.9% in the premarket as the travel-demand surge lifted sales and earnings beyond Wall Street forecasts. Airbnb earned $1.22 per share for its latest quarter, beating the $0.75 consensus estimate, with sales coming in at a record high. The company also said it expects a strong holiday season.</p><p><blockquote><b>爱彼迎(ABNB)</b>-爱彼迎盘前上涨5.9%，因旅游需求激增推动销售额和盈利超出华尔街预期。爱彼迎最近一个季度每股收益1.22美元，超过市场普遍预期的0.75美元，销售额创历史新高。该公司还表示，预计假期将会很强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Uber Technologies(UBER) </b>– Uber reported its first profitable quarter on an adjusted basis, thanks to upbeat performances by its ride-sharing and food delivery services. It did post an overall loss due to the drop in value of its stake in China ride-hailing company&nbsp;Didi(DIDI). Uber rose 2.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>优步科技(UBER)</b>-由于拼车和送餐服务的乐观表现，优步报告了调整后的第一个盈利季度。由于其在中国网约车公司滴滴（DIDI）的股份价值下跌，该公司确实出现了整体亏损。Uber在盘前交易中上涨2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pinterest(PINS)</b> – Pinterest came in 5 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 28 cents per share, and the image-sharing site operator’s revenue also topped analyst forecasts. It is also predicting an upbeat current quarter as the online retailer spends more on holiday season ads. Pinterest jumped 3.8% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>Pinterest(PINS)</b>-Pinterest调整后季度利润为每股28美分，比预期高出5美分，这家图像共享网站运营商的收入也超出了分析师的预期。它还预测，随着这家在线零售商在假日广告上的支出增加，本季度将会乐观。Pinterest在盘前股价上涨3.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Square(SQ)</b> -Square matched estimates with quarterly earnings of 37 cents per share, while the mobile payments company’s revenue missed forecasts. Square did see a nearly 60% rise in profit from a year earlier, thanks in large part to a surge in bitcoin transactions, but the stock dropped 3.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>平方(SQ)</b>-Square的季度收益为每股37美分，符合预期，而这家移动支付公司的收入未达到预期。Square的利润确实较上年同期增长了近60%，这在很大程度上要归功于比特币交易的激增，但该股在盘前交易中下跌了3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Canopy Growth(CGC)</b> – The Canadian cannabis producer lost 3 cents per share for its latest quarter, smaller than the 20-cent loss expected by analysts. However, revenue fell short of estimates and the company flagged slower-than-expected revenue growth for the second half of fiscal 2022. The stock fell 2.7% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>冠层生长(CGC)</b>-这家加拿大大麻生产商最近一个季度每股亏损3美分，小于分析师预期的20美分亏损。然而，收入低于预期，该公司表示2022财年下半年的收入增长低于预期。该股盘前下跌2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shake Shack(SHAK)</b> – Shake Shack reported a quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, 1 cent less than Wall Street had anticipated, but the restaurant chain’s sales missed analyst forecasts. Despite the revenue miss, Shake Shack rallied 7.6% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>Shake Shack(SHAK)</b>-Shake Shack公布季度每股亏损5美分，比华尔街预期少1美分，但该连锁餐厅的销售额未达到分析师预期。尽管营收未达预期，Shake Shack盘前仍上涨7.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Canada Goose(GOOS)</b> – The outerwear maker reported an unexpected profit for its latest quarter along with better-than-expected revenue, and also raised its full-year forecast. Canada Goose also said it’s seeing an indication of a strong winter season, and shares jumped 7.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>加拿大鹅(GOOS)</b>-这家外套制造商公布了最近一个季度的意外利润以及好于预期的收入，并上调了全年预期。Canada Goose还表示，它看到了冬季强劲的迹象，股价在盘前上涨了7.4%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Live Nation Entertainment(LYV) </b>– Live Nation shares rallied 5.4% in premarket action after the event promoter returned to profit amid a sales surge as live events returned. Results exceeded analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote><b>现场国家娱乐(LYV)</b>-Live Nation股价在盘前上涨5.4%，此前随着现场活动回归，销售额激增，活动主办方恢复盈利。结果超出了分析师的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lions Gate Entertainment(LGF)</b> – The movie and tv studio is considering a sale or spin-off of its Starz premium cable channel, saying it sees the potential to unlock significant shareholder value. The stock surged 15.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>狮门娱乐(LGF)</b>-该电影和电视工作室正在考虑出售或分拆其Starz付费有线频道，称其看到了释放巨大股东价值的潜力。该股盘前飙升15.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LYV":"Live Nation Entertainment","SHAK":"Shake Shack Inc",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","PFE":"辉瑞","GOOS":"加拿大鹅","CGC":"Canopy Growth Corporation",".DJI":"道琼斯","EXPE":"Expedia","PINS":"Pinterest, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UBER":"优步","DKNG":"DraftKings Inc.","NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156660858","content_text":"Futures tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit a record high on Friday, boosted by a batch of strong earnings reports and Pfizer, while investors looked to monthly employment data for clues on the pace of economic growth.\nAt 08:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 54 points, or 0.15%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 10.75 points, or 0.23%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 23.75 points, or 0.15%.\n\nTravel stocks rose following the news, with American Airline , United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, cruise operators Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise rising between 2% and 4%.\nThe U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in October while the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, the Labor Department reported Friday.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 531,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 450,000. The unemployment rate had been expected to edge down to 4.7%.\nMeanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on Friday on the social policy and climate-change bill and a bipartisan infrastructure bill.\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket:\nPfizer(PFE) – The drug maker's shares surged 10.4% in premarket trading after a study showed that its experimental Covid-19 antiviral pill reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by nearly 90%. Pfizer said it will ask regulators to approve the pill as soon as possible.\nDraftKings(DKNG) – The sports betting company’s stock slid 10% in the premarket after it reported a wider-than-expected loss and revenue that fell short of Street forecasts. DraftKings did raise the midpoint of its fiscal 2021 revenue guidance and said it expected a strong 2022.\nNvidia(NVDA) – Nvidia shares rose 3% in premarket trading Friday after a 12% rise yesterday.Well Fargo Securities analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated an Overweight rating on Nvidia and bumped up the price target from $245 to $320.\nPeloton(PTON) – Peloton tumbled 33% in the premarket after the fitness equipment maker slashed its full-year sales forecast by $1 billion, amid slowing demand for bikes and treadmills. Peloton also reported a quarterly loss of $1.21 per share, wider than the $1.07 loss expected by analysts, and revenue fell short of estimates as well.\nExpedia(EXPE) – Expedia earned an adjusted $3.53 per share for its latest quarter, well above the $1.65 consensus estimate. Revenue was also higher than expected, with the travel services company benefiting from the surge in travel demand. Expedia soared 13.7% in premarket trading.\nAirbnb(ABNB) – Airbnb rallied 5.9% in the premarket as the travel-demand surge lifted sales and earnings beyond Wall Street forecasts. Airbnb earned $1.22 per share for its latest quarter, beating the $0.75 consensus estimate, with sales coming in at a record high. The company also said it expects a strong holiday season.\nUber Technologies(UBER) – Uber reported its first profitable quarter on an adjusted basis, thanks to upbeat performances by its ride-sharing and food delivery services. It did post an overall loss due to the drop in value of its stake in China ride-hailing company Didi(DIDI). Uber rose 2.5% in premarket trading.\nPinterest(PINS) – Pinterest came in 5 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 28 cents per share, and the image-sharing site operator’s revenue also topped analyst forecasts. It is also predicting an upbeat current quarter as the online retailer spends more on holiday season ads. Pinterest jumped 3.8% in premarket action.\nSquare(SQ) -Square matched estimates with quarterly earnings of 37 cents per share, while the mobile payments company’s revenue missed forecasts. Square did see a nearly 60% rise in profit from a year earlier, thanks in large part to a surge in bitcoin transactions, but the stock dropped 3.5% in premarket trading.\nCanopy Growth(CGC) – The Canadian cannabis producer lost 3 cents per share for its latest quarter, smaller than the 20-cent loss expected by analysts. However, revenue fell short of estimates and the company flagged slower-than-expected revenue growth for the second half of fiscal 2022. The stock fell 2.7% in the premarket.\nShake Shack(SHAK) – Shake Shack reported a quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, 1 cent less than Wall Street had anticipated, but the restaurant chain’s sales missed analyst forecasts. Despite the revenue miss, Shake Shack rallied 7.6% in the premarket.\nCanada Goose(GOOS) – The outerwear maker reported an unexpected profit for its latest quarter along with better-than-expected revenue, and also raised its full-year forecast. Canada Goose also said it’s seeing an indication of a strong winter season, and shares jumped 7.4% in the premarket.\nLive Nation Entertainment(LYV) – Live Nation shares rallied 5.4% in premarket action after the event promoter returned to profit amid a sales surge as live events returned. Results exceeded analyst estimates.\nLions Gate Entertainment(LGF) – The movie and tv studio is considering a sale or spin-off of its Starz premium cable channel, saying it sees the potential to unlock significant shareholder value. 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The devil, as they say, will be in the details.</p><p><blockquote>关于周三美联储政策会议的头条新闻已经写好了。正如他们所说，细节决定成败。</blockquote></p><p> On the likely news, it is a “foregone conclusion” the Fed will announce Wednesday that a tapering of asset purchases will begin later this month, according to Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays.</p><p><blockquote>巴克莱首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen表示，从可能的消息来看，美联储将于周三宣布本月晚些时候开始缩减资产购买规模已成“定局”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has indicated the pace of reduction in its bond buying program is likely to be $15 billion per month. This means that the current pace of $120 billion in monthly asset purchases will end completely in the middle of next year.</p><p><blockquote>美联储表示，缩减债券购买计划的速度可能为每月150亿美元。这意味着，目前每月1200亿美元的资产购买步伐将在明年年中彻底结束。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s a look at what else economists and investors will be watching for when the Fed concludes the two-day meeting on Wednesday. The Fed will release a statement at 2 p.m. Eastern and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.</p><p><blockquote>以下是美联储周三结束为期两天的会议时，经济学家和投资者还将关注什么。美联储将于下午2点发布声明。东部和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于下午2:30举行新闻发布会。东部。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Transitory inflation</h4> A lot has been written about Powell’s view that inflation is “transitory,” which doesn’t mean it will quickly reverse. Instead, it means that within a reasonable timeline, inflation will revert to its 2% target,” says Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisers.</p><p><blockquote><h4>暂时性通货膨胀</h4>鲍威尔认为通胀是“暂时的”，但这并不意味着通胀会很快逆转，这已经写了很多。相反，这意味着在合理的时间内，通胀将恢复到2%的目标。”SGH Macro Advisers首席美国经济学家蒂姆·杜伊(Tim Duy)表示。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement in September said that “inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors.” and economists are divided over whether it will be included in the statement released Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>美联储9月份的声明称，“通胀上升，很大程度上反映了暂时性因素。”经济学家对于是否将其纳入周三发布的声明存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at BofA , thinks this key sentence will be edited so that it says “partly” reflecting transitory factors or a sentence is added about signs of more persistent inflation.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行美国经济主管米歇尔·迈耶认为，这一关键句子将被编辑，使其“部分”反映暂时性因素，或者添加一句有关通胀更加持续的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, thinks the Fed will stick with the “largely reflecting transitory factors” language. This will imply no rush for interest rate hikes, he said.</p><p><blockquote>道明证券首席美国宏观策略师吉姆·奥沙利文认为，美联储将坚持“很大程度上反映暂时性因素”的措辞。他表示，这意味着不会急于加息。</blockquote></p><p> The underpinnings of the “transitory” prediction are staring to “lose its luster,” said said Steve Friedman, senior macroeconomist at MacKay Shields, in an email. Inflation is looking more broad based, with shelter costs and a broader range of goods and services now registering price increases, he said.</p><p><blockquote>麦凯·希尔兹(MacKay Shields)高级宏观经济学家史蒂夫·弗里德曼(Steve Friedman)在一封电子邮件中表示，“暂时”预测的基础正开始“失去光泽”。他说，通货膨胀的基础看起来更加广泛，住房成本以及更广泛的商品和服务现在都出现了价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge,the personal consumption expenditure price index,rose at a 4.4% annual pace in October, the fastest pace in thirty years. In addition, wages had the largest quarterly increasessince the early 1990s.</p><p><blockquote>美联储最喜欢的通胀指标个人消费支出价格指数10月份以4.4%的年率上涨，为三十年来的最快速度。此外，工资出现了自20世纪90年代初以来最大的季度涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Rate hikes</h4> Powell is likely to emphasize again that the decision to taper is independent from the decision to lift rates. But markets won’t pay much attention to those efforts, said Gapen of Barclays, in an note.</p><p><blockquote><h4>加息</h4>鲍威尔可能会再次强调，缩减规模的决定独立于加息的决定。但巴克莱银行的加彭在一份报告中表示，市场不会太关注这些努力。</blockquote></p><p> Markets continue to price in about two quarter-point rate hikes in 2022 and see the Fed transitioning quickly from ending asset purchases to raising short-term interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>市场继续预计2022年将加息约两次25个基点，并看到美联储从结束资产购买迅速过渡到提高短期利率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c920b4b538ee54a770dabde94f3a140b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In September, the Fed was evenly split over whether to raise rates next near and many Fed officials have signaled they want to end tapering in case rate hikes are needed, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，9月份，美联储在是否在近期加息的问题上存在平分秋色，许多美联储官员已表示，他们希望结束缩减规模，以防需要加息。</blockquote></p><p> Michael Gregory, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto said he expects “we’ll still come away with the impression that the chances of liftoff later next year have moved much higher than the 50-50 odds portrayed by last meeting’s dot-plot.”</p><p><blockquote>多伦多BMO资本市场副首席经济学家迈克尔·格雷戈里(Michael Gregory)表示，他预计“我们仍然会留下这样的印象：明年晚些时候起飞的可能性远高于上次会议点阵图所描绘的50-50赔率。”</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Balance sheet</h4> In 2016, some economists argued that the Fed should start to actually shrink its balance sheet before it raises interest rates. The central bank didn’t follow that approach but the argument is resurfacing again, said Mark Cabana, rates strategist at BofA Securities. Some Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, have signaled a willingness for an early move to shrink the balance sheet, which has risen to $8.6 trillion from $4.4 trillion prior to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><h4>资产负债表</h4>2016年，一些经济学家认为美联储应该在加息之前开始实际缩表。美国银行证券利率策略师马克·卡巴纳表示，央行没有遵循这种做法，但这种争论再次浮出水面。包括圣路易斯联储主席布拉德（James Bullard）在内的一些美联储官员已表示愿意尽早采取行动缩减资产负债表，资产负债表已从疫情爆发前的4.4万亿美元升至8.6万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Cabana said his base case is that the Fed follows the approach of the last cycle in 2017-2019 and moves to reduce the balance sheet once its benchmark rate is above 1%, which he pencils in to happen in the fourth quarter of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>卡巴纳表示，他的基本假设是，美联储将遵循2017-2019年上一个周期的做法，一旦基准利率高于1%，就会采取行动缩减资产负债表，他预计这将在2023年第四季度发生。</blockquote></p><p> But there are rising odds for an earlier move – in early 2023 – to shrink the balance sheet as it would be a more passive policy tightening that gives the labor market longer to heal. he said.</p><p><blockquote>但更早（即2023年初）缩减资产负债表的可能性越来越大，因为这将是一种更加被动的政策紧缩，让劳动力市场有更长的时间来恢复。他说。</blockquote></p><p> To shrink the balance sheet, the Fed doesn’t have to sell securities that it holds. It can just let them mature and not reinvest the proceeds.</p><p><blockquote>为了缩减资产负债表，美联储不必出售其持有的证券。它可以让它们成熟，而不是将收益进行再投资。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <h4>Ethics concern</h4> Powell is going to be asked about ethics concerns related to Fed officials trading for their personal accounts during the pandemic. Last month, the Fed announcednew rules to restrict trading by top officials.Two regional Fed presidents left their positions after their trading behavior in 2020 was criticized. Some progressive Democrats have questioned some of Powell’s own investment decisions, as well as decisions by his No. 2, Vice Chairman Richard Clarida. “We expect the Fed Chair to take time to explain the new procedures and push back against the perceptions that Fed officials were engaged in a form of self-dealing,” Gapen said.</p><p><blockquote><h4>伦理关注</h4>鲍威尔将被问及与美联储官员在疫情期间为其个人账户进行交易相关的道德问题。上个月，美联储宣布了限制高级官员交易的新规定。两位地区联储主席在2020年的交易行为受到批评后离职。一些进步民主党人质疑鲍威尔自己的一些投资决定，以及他的二号人物、副主席理查德·克拉里达的决定。加彭表示：“我们预计美联储主席将花时间解释新程序，并反驳美联储官员参与某种形式自我交易的看法。”</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Second term for Powell</h4> Powell’s term as Fed chair ends early next year and some economists believe that Powell’s hands are tied as long as President Joe Biden hasn’t acted to reappoint him.</p><p><blockquote><h4>鲍威尔第二个任期</h4>鲍威尔作为美联储主席的任期将于明年初结束，一些经济学家认为，只要总统乔·拜登不采取行动重新任命他，鲍威尔的手就被束缚住了。</blockquote></p><p> “He cannot start to be Mr. Tough Guy [on inflation] as long as his reappointment is hanging in the balance,” said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics. He added the Fed is under “kind of crazy pressure” from progressives. “I think that’s a really big complication for policy right now.”</p><p><blockquote>粮农组织经济学首席经济学家罗伯特·布鲁斯卡表示：“只要他的连任悬而未决，他就不可能开始成为（通胀问题）硬汉先生。”他补充说，美联储正面临来自进步人士的“疯狂压力”。“我认为这对目前的政策来说是一个非常复杂的问题。”</blockquote></p><p> At his last press conference in September, Powell demurred from making any statement on the matter. “I think the phrase goes – I have nothing for you on that today. Sorry, I’m just focused on my job,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>在9月份的最后一次新闻发布会上，鲍威尔拒绝就此事发表任何声明。“我想这句话是这样说的——我今天没有什么可以告诉你的。抱歉，我只是专注于我的工作，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 things to watch for when Fed meets Wednesday<blockquote>美联储周三会议时需要注意的5件事</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 things to watch for when Fed meets Wednesday<blockquote>美联储周三会议时需要注意的5件事</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-03 11:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The headlines of the story about Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting have already been written. The devil, as they say, will be in the details.</p><p><blockquote>关于周三美联储政策会议的头条新闻已经写好了。正如他们所说，细节决定成败。</blockquote></p><p> On the likely news, it is a “foregone conclusion” the Fed will announce Wednesday that a tapering of asset purchases will begin later this month, according to Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays.</p><p><blockquote>巴克莱首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen表示，从可能的消息来看，美联储将于周三宣布本月晚些时候开始缩减资产购买规模已成“定局”。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed has indicated the pace of reduction in its bond buying program is likely to be $15 billion per month. This means that the current pace of $120 billion in monthly asset purchases will end completely in the middle of next year.</p><p><blockquote>美联储表示，缩减债券购买计划的速度可能为每月150亿美元。这意味着，目前每月1200亿美元的资产购买步伐将在明年年中彻底结束。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s a look at what else economists and investors will be watching for when the Fed concludes the two-day meeting on Wednesday. The Fed will release a statement at 2 p.m. Eastern and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.</p><p><blockquote>以下是美联储周三结束为期两天的会议时，经济学家和投资者还将关注什么。美联储将于下午2点发布声明。东部和美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔将于下午2:30举行新闻发布会。东部。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Transitory inflation</h4> A lot has been written about Powell’s view that inflation is “transitory,” which doesn’t mean it will quickly reverse. Instead, it means that within a reasonable timeline, inflation will revert to its 2% target,” says Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisers.</p><p><blockquote><h4>暂时性通货膨胀</h4>鲍威尔认为通胀是“暂时的”，但这并不意味着通胀会很快逆转，这已经写了很多。相反，这意味着在合理的时间内，通胀将恢复到2%的目标。”SGH Macro Advisers首席美国经济学家蒂姆·杜伊(Tim Duy)表示。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s statement in September said that “inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors.” and economists are divided over whether it will be included in the statement released Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>美联储9月份的声明称，“通胀上升，很大程度上反映了暂时性因素。”经济学家对于是否将其纳入周三发布的声明存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p> Michelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at BofA , thinks this key sentence will be edited so that it says “partly” reflecting transitory factors or a sentence is added about signs of more persistent inflation.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行美国经济主管米歇尔·迈耶认为，这一关键句子将被编辑，使其“部分”反映暂时性因素，或者添加一句有关通胀更加持续的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, thinks the Fed will stick with the “largely reflecting transitory factors” language. This will imply no rush for interest rate hikes, he said.</p><p><blockquote>道明证券首席美国宏观策略师吉姆·奥沙利文认为，美联储将坚持“很大程度上反映暂时性因素”的措辞。他表示，这意味着不会急于加息。</blockquote></p><p> The underpinnings of the “transitory” prediction are staring to “lose its luster,” said said Steve Friedman, senior macroeconomist at MacKay Shields, in an email. Inflation is looking more broad based, with shelter costs and a broader range of goods and services now registering price increases, he said.</p><p><blockquote>麦凯·希尔兹(MacKay Shields)高级宏观经济学家史蒂夫·弗里德曼(Steve Friedman)在一封电子邮件中表示，“暂时”预测的基础正开始“失去光泽”。他说，通货膨胀的基础看起来更加广泛，住房成本以及更广泛的商品和服务现在都出现了价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed’s favorite inflation gauge,the personal consumption expenditure price index,rose at a 4.4% annual pace in October, the fastest pace in thirty years. In addition, wages had the largest quarterly increasessince the early 1990s.</p><p><blockquote>美联储最喜欢的通胀指标个人消费支出价格指数10月份以4.4%的年率上涨，为三十年来的最快速度。此外，工资出现了自20世纪90年代初以来最大的季度涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Rate hikes</h4> Powell is likely to emphasize again that the decision to taper is independent from the decision to lift rates. But markets won’t pay much attention to those efforts, said Gapen of Barclays, in an note.</p><p><blockquote><h4>加息</h4>鲍威尔可能会再次强调，缩减规模的决定独立于加息的决定。但巴克莱银行的加彭在一份报告中表示，市场不会太关注这些努力。</blockquote></p><p> Markets continue to price in about two quarter-point rate hikes in 2022 and see the Fed transitioning quickly from ending asset purchases to raising short-term interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>市场继续预计2022年将加息约两次25个基点，并看到美联储从结束资产购买迅速过渡到提高短期利率。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c920b4b538ee54a770dabde94f3a140b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"397\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In September, the Fed was evenly split over whether to raise rates next near and many Fed officials have signaled they want to end tapering in case rate hikes are needed, he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，9月份，美联储在是否在近期加息的问题上存在平分秋色，许多美联储官员已表示，他们希望结束缩减规模，以防需要加息。</blockquote></p><p> Michael Gregory, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto said he expects “we’ll still come away with the impression that the chances of liftoff later next year have moved much higher than the 50-50 odds portrayed by last meeting’s dot-plot.”</p><p><blockquote>多伦多BMO资本市场副首席经济学家迈克尔·格雷戈里(Michael Gregory)表示，他预计“我们仍然会留下这样的印象：明年晚些时候起飞的可能性远高于上次会议点阵图所描绘的50-50赔率。”</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Balance sheet</h4> In 2016, some economists argued that the Fed should start to actually shrink its balance sheet before it raises interest rates. The central bank didn’t follow that approach but the argument is resurfacing again, said Mark Cabana, rates strategist at BofA Securities. Some Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, have signaled a willingness for an early move to shrink the balance sheet, which has risen to $8.6 trillion from $4.4 trillion prior to the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><h4>资产负债表</h4>2016年，一些经济学家认为美联储应该在加息之前开始实际缩表。美国银行证券利率策略师马克·卡巴纳表示，央行没有遵循这种做法，但这种争论再次浮出水面。包括圣路易斯联储主席布拉德（James Bullard）在内的一些美联储官员已表示愿意尽早采取行动缩减资产负债表，资产负债表已从疫情爆发前的4.4万亿美元升至8.6万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Cabana said his base case is that the Fed follows the approach of the last cycle in 2017-2019 and moves to reduce the balance sheet once its benchmark rate is above 1%, which he pencils in to happen in the fourth quarter of 2023.</p><p><blockquote>卡巴纳表示，他的基本假设是，美联储将遵循2017-2019年上一个周期的做法，一旦基准利率高于1%，就会采取行动缩减资产负债表，他预计这将在2023年第四季度发生。</blockquote></p><p> But there are rising odds for an earlier move – in early 2023 – to shrink the balance sheet as it would be a more passive policy tightening that gives the labor market longer to heal. he said.</p><p><blockquote>但更早（即2023年初）缩减资产负债表的可能性越来越大，因为这将是一种更加被动的政策紧缩，让劳动力市场有更长的时间来恢复。他说。</blockquote></p><p> To shrink the balance sheet, the Fed doesn’t have to sell securities that it holds. It can just let them mature and not reinvest the proceeds.</p><p><blockquote>为了缩减资产负债表，美联储不必出售其持有的证券。它可以让它们成熟，而不是将收益进行再投资。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <h4>Ethics concern</h4> Powell is going to be asked about ethics concerns related to Fed officials trading for their personal accounts during the pandemic. Last month, the Fed announcednew rules to restrict trading by top officials.Two regional Fed presidents left their positions after their trading behavior in 2020 was criticized. Some progressive Democrats have questioned some of Powell’s own investment decisions, as well as decisions by his No. 2, Vice Chairman Richard Clarida. “We expect the Fed Chair to take time to explain the new procedures and push back against the perceptions that Fed officials were engaged in a form of self-dealing,” Gapen said.</p><p><blockquote><h4>伦理关注</h4>鲍威尔将被问及与美联储官员在疫情期间为其个人账户进行交易相关的道德问题。上个月，美联储宣布了限制高级官员交易的新规定。两位地区联储主席在2020年的交易行为受到批评后离职。一些进步民主党人质疑鲍威尔自己的一些投资决定，以及他的二号人物、副主席理查德·克拉里达的决定。加彭表示：“我们预计美联储主席将花时间解释新程序，并反驳美联储官员参与某种形式自我交易的看法。”</blockquote></p><p> <h4>Second term for Powell</h4> Powell’s term as Fed chair ends early next year and some economists believe that Powell’s hands are tied as long as President Joe Biden hasn’t acted to reappoint him.</p><p><blockquote><h4>鲍威尔第二个任期</h4>鲍威尔作为美联储主席的任期将于明年初结束，一些经济学家认为，只要总统乔·拜登不采取行动重新任命他，鲍威尔的手就被束缚住了。</blockquote></p><p> “He cannot start to be Mr. Tough Guy [on inflation] as long as his reappointment is hanging in the balance,” said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics. He added the Fed is under “kind of crazy pressure” from progressives. “I think that’s a really big complication for policy right now.”</p><p><blockquote>粮农组织经济学首席经济学家罗伯特·布鲁斯卡表示：“只要他的连任悬而未决，他就不可能开始成为（通胀问题）硬汉先生。”他补充说，美联储正面临来自进步人士的“疯狂压力”。“我认为这对目前的政策来说是一个非常复杂的问题。”</blockquote></p><p> At his last press conference in September, Powell demurred from making any statement on the matter. “I think the phrase goes – I have nothing for you on that today. Sorry, I’m just focused on my job,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>在9月份的最后一次新闻发布会上，鲍威尔拒绝就此事发表任何声明。“我想这句话是这样说的——我今天没有什么可以告诉你的。抱歉，我只是专注于我的工作，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-things-to-watch-for-when-fed-meets-wednesday-11635878287?siteid=yhoof2\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-things-to-watch-for-when-fed-meets-wednesday-11635878287?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1105545673","content_text":"The headlines of the story about Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting have already been written. The devil, as they say, will be in the details.\nOn the likely news, it is a “foregone conclusion” the Fed will announce Wednesday that a tapering of asset purchases will begin later this month, according to Michael Gapen, chief U.S. economist at Barclays.\nThe Fed has indicated the pace of reduction in its bond buying program is likely to be $15 billion per month. This means that the current pace of $120 billion in monthly asset purchases will end completely in the middle of next year.\nHere’s a look at what else economists and investors will be watching for when the Fed concludes the two-day meeting on Wednesday. The Fed will release a statement at 2 p.m. Eastern and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 p.m. Eastern.\nTransitory inflation\nA lot has been written about Powell’s view that inflation is “transitory,” which doesn’t mean it will quickly reverse. Instead, it means that within a reasonable timeline, inflation will revert to its 2% target,” says Tim Duy, chief U.S. economist at SGH Macro Advisers.\nThe Fed’s statement in September said that “inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors.” and economists are divided over whether it will be included in the statement released Wednesday.\nMichelle Meyer, head of U.S. economics at BofA , thinks this key sentence will be edited so that it says “partly” reflecting transitory factors or a sentence is added about signs of more persistent inflation.\nJim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist at TD Securities, thinks the Fed will stick with the “largely reflecting transitory factors” language. This will imply no rush for interest rate hikes, he said.\nThe underpinnings of the “transitory” prediction are staring to “lose its luster,” said said Steve Friedman, senior macroeconomist at MacKay Shields, in an email. Inflation is looking more broad based, with shelter costs and a broader range of goods and services now registering price increases, he said.\nThe Fed’s favorite inflation gauge,the personal consumption expenditure price index,rose at a 4.4% annual pace in October, the fastest pace in thirty years. In addition, wages had the largest quarterly increasessince the early 1990s.\nRate hikes\nPowell is likely to emphasize again that the decision to taper is independent from the decision to lift rates. But markets won’t pay much attention to those efforts, said Gapen of Barclays, in an note.\nMarkets continue to price in about two quarter-point rate hikes in 2022 and see the Fed transitioning quickly from ending asset purchases to raising short-term interest rates.\n\nIn September, the Fed was evenly split over whether to raise rates next near and many Fed officials have signaled they want to end tapering in case rate hikes are needed, he said.\nMichael Gregory, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto said he expects “we’ll still come away with the impression that the chances of liftoff later next year have moved much higher than the 50-50 odds portrayed by last meeting’s dot-plot.”\nBalance sheet\nIn 2016, some economists argued that the Fed should start to actually shrink its balance sheet before it raises interest rates. The central bank didn’t follow that approach but the argument is resurfacing again, said Mark Cabana, rates strategist at BofA Securities. Some Fed officials, including St. Louis Fed president James Bullard, have signaled a willingness for an early move to shrink the balance sheet, which has risen to $8.6 trillion from $4.4 trillion prior to the pandemic.\nCabana said his base case is that the Fed follows the approach of the last cycle in 2017-2019 and moves to reduce the balance sheet once its benchmark rate is above 1%, which he pencils in to happen in the fourth quarter of 2023.\nBut there are rising odds for an earlier move – in early 2023 – to shrink the balance sheet as it would be a more passive policy tightening that gives the labor market longer to heal. he said.\nTo shrink the balance sheet, the Fed doesn’t have to sell securities that it holds. It can just let them mature and not reinvest the proceeds.\nEthics concern\nPowell is going to be asked about ethics concerns related to Fed officials trading for their personal accounts during the pandemic. Last month, the Fed announcednew rules to restrict trading by top officials.Two regional Fed presidents left their positions after their trading behavior in 2020 was criticized. Some progressive Democrats have questioned some of Powell’s own investment decisions, as well as decisions by his No. 2, Vice Chairman Richard Clarida. “We expect the Fed Chair to take time to explain the new procedures and push back against the perceptions that Fed officials were engaged in a form of self-dealing,” Gapen said.\nSecond term for Powell\nPowell’s term as Fed chair ends early next year and some economists believe that Powell’s hands are tied as long as President Joe Biden hasn’t acted to reappoint him.\n“He cannot start to be Mr. Tough Guy [on inflation] as long as his reappointment is hanging in the balance,” said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics. He added the Fed is under “kind of crazy pressure” from progressives. “I think that’s a really big complication for policy right now.”\nAt his last press conference in September, Powell demurred from making any statement on the matter. “I think the phrase goes – I have nothing for you on that today. Sorry, I’m just focused on my job,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":800,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841256918,"gmtCreate":1635917955611,"gmtModify":1635917955611,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841256918","repostId":"2180736486","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841256075,"gmtCreate":1635917918845,"gmtModify":1635917918845,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks&nbsp;","listText":"thanks&nbsp;","text":"thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841256075","repostId":"2180782003","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843341395,"gmtCreate":1635810244854,"gmtModify":1635810244854,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843341395","repostId":"2180209403","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849538279,"gmtCreate":1635765028494,"gmtModify":1635765028494,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849538279","repostId":"2180275337","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2180275337","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1635751276,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2180275337?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-01 15:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For November 1, 2021<blockquote>2021年11月1日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2180275337","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\tWall Street expects  PG&amp;E Corporation  (NYSE: PCG) to report quarterly earnings at $0.26 per share on revenue of $5.37 billion before the opening bell. PG&amp;E shares rose 0.6% to $11.67 in after-hours trading.\n","content":"<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能引起投资者关注的一些股票包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects <b>PG&amp;E Corporation </b> (NYSE:PCG) to report quarterly earnings at $0.26 per share on revenue of $5.37 billion before the opening bell. PG&amp;E shares rose 0.6% to $11.67 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b>Xpeng Inc - ADR </b>(NYSE:XPEV) said it delivered 10,138 vehicles in October, a 233% surge year-on-year, despite the semiconductor shortage. Xpeng shares rose 0.4% to $46.80 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting <b>McKesson Corporation </b> (NYSE:MCK) to have earned $4.62 per share on revenue of $63.12 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets clsoe. McKesson shares rose 1.4% to close at $207.88 on Friday.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>After the opening bell, <b>Clorox Co </b> (NYSE:CLX) is projected to post quarterly earnings at $1.03 per share on revenue of $1.70 billion. Clorox shares gained 0.1% to $163.10 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li>Analysts expect <b>ON Semiconductor Corp </b> (NASDAQ:ON) to post quarterly earnings at $0.74 per share on revenue of $1.71 billion before the opening bell. ON Semiconductor shares rose 1.8% to $48.94 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预计<b>PG&amp;E公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PCG）将在开盘前公布季度收益为每股0.26美元，营收为53.7亿美元。PG&amp;E股价在盘后交易中上涨0.6%，至11.67美元。</li><li><b>小鹏汽车-ADR</b>(NYSE：XPEV)表示，尽管半导体短缺，该公司10月份交付了10,138辆汽车，同比激增233%。小鹏汽车股价在盘后交易时段上涨0.4%，至46.80美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>麦克森公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MCK）最近一个季度每股收益为4.62美元，营收为631.2亿美元。该公司将在上市后发布财报。McKesson股价周五上涨1.4%，收于207.88美元。</li></ul><ul><li>开盘后，<b>Clorox公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CLX）预计季度收益为每股1.03美元，营收为17亿美元。高乐氏股价在盘后交易中上涨0.1%，至163.10美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>安森美半导体公司</b>（纳斯达克：ON）开盘前公布季度收益为每股0.74美元，营收为17.1亿美元。安森美半导体股价在盘后交易中上涨1.8%，至48.94美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For November 1, 2021<blockquote>2021年11月1日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For November 1, 2021<blockquote>2021年11月1日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-01 15:21</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能引起投资者关注的一些股票包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects <b>PG&amp;E Corporation </b> (NYSE:PCG) to report quarterly earnings at $0.26 per share on revenue of $5.37 billion before the opening bell. PG&amp;E shares rose 0.6% to $11.67 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b>Xpeng Inc - ADR </b>(NYSE:XPEV) said it delivered 10,138 vehicles in October, a 233% surge year-on-year, despite the semiconductor shortage. Xpeng shares rose 0.4% to $46.80 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting <b>McKesson Corporation </b> (NYSE:MCK) to have earned $4.62 per share on revenue of $63.12 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets clsoe. McKesson shares rose 1.4% to close at $207.88 on Friday.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>After the opening bell, <b>Clorox Co </b> (NYSE:CLX) is projected to post quarterly earnings at $1.03 per share on revenue of $1.70 billion. Clorox shares gained 0.1% to $163.10 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li>Analysts expect <b>ON Semiconductor Corp </b> (NASDAQ:ON) to post quarterly earnings at $0.74 per share on revenue of $1.71 billion before the opening bell. ON Semiconductor shares rose 1.8% to $48.94 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预计<b>PG&amp;E公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PCG）将在开盘前公布季度收益为每股0.26美元，营收为53.7亿美元。PG&amp;E股价在盘后交易中上涨0.6%，至11.67美元。</li><li><b>小鹏汽车-ADR</b>(NYSE：XPEV)表示，尽管半导体短缺，该公司10月份交付了10,138辆汽车，同比激增233%。小鹏汽车股价在盘后交易时段上涨0.4%，至46.80美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>麦克森公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MCK）最近一个季度每股收益为4.62美元，营收为631.2亿美元。该公司将在上市后发布财报。McKesson股价周五上涨1.4%，收于207.88美元。</li></ul><ul><li>开盘后，<b>Clorox公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CLX）预计季度收益为每股1.03美元，营收为17亿美元。高乐氏股价在盘后交易中上涨0.1%，至163.10美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>安森美半导体公司</b>（纳斯达克：ON）开盘前公布季度收益为每股0.74美元，营收为17.1亿美元。安森美半导体股价在盘后交易中上涨1.8%，至48.94美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","PCG":"太平洋煤气电力","ON":"安森美半导体"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2180275337","content_text":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\nWall Street expects PG&E Corporation  (NYSE:PCG) to report quarterly earnings at $0.26 per share on revenue of $5.37 billion before the opening bell. PG&E shares rose 0.6% to $11.67 in after-hours trading.\nXpeng Inc - ADR (NYSE:XPEV) said it delivered 10,138 vehicles in October, a 233% surge year-on-year, despite the semiconductor shortage. Xpeng shares rose 0.4% to $46.80 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts are expecting McKesson Corporation  (NYSE:MCK) to have earned $4.62 per share on revenue of $63.12 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets clsoe. McKesson shares rose 1.4% to close at $207.88 on Friday.\n\n\nAfter the opening bell, Clorox Co  (NYSE:CLX) is projected to post quarterly earnings at $1.03 per share on revenue of $1.70 billion. Clorox shares gained 0.1% to $163.10 in after-hours trading.\nAnalysts expect ON Semiconductor Corp  (NASDAQ:ON) to post quarterly earnings at $0.74 per share on revenue of $1.71 billion before the opening bell. ON Semiconductor shares rose 1.8% to $48.94 in after-hours trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ON":0.9,"PCG":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849531784,"gmtCreate":1635765008373,"gmtModify":1635765008373,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice&nbsp;","listText":"nice&nbsp;","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849531784","repostId":"2179806221","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840491104,"gmtCreate":1635668150507,"gmtModify":1635668294520,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice&nbsp;","listText":"nice&nbsp;","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840491104","repostId":"2179471352","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2179471352","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1635566092,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2179471352?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-30 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2179471352","media":"Market watch","summary":"For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion , the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion mark","content":"<p>Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的粉丝和股东正在就他们最喜欢的公司的未来进行更强烈、更响亮的争论。在其中，他们将资本主义历史上最成功的品牌和企业之一进行了类比。他们表示，汽车制造可能会走手机制造的道路，而特斯拉TSLA（+3.43%）与苹果AAPL（-1.82%）有很大相似之处。诺基亚/黑莓/爱立信/摩托罗拉动态。</blockquote></p><p> For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，在21世纪初，这些传统手机制造商会消失是不可想象的。2006年，制造黑莓手机的Research in Motion(RIM)在针对NTP的专利诉讼中败诉，美国地方法院法官发布了销售禁令。国防部介入，声称黑莓禁令对国家安全构成威胁。与此同时，行业领导者诺基亚占据了40%的市场份额，到2007年底，市值达到2300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But something else happened in 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但2007年发生了另一件事。</blockquote></p><p> Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯推出了iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> And that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.</p><p><blockquote>这永远改变了诺基亚、黑莓和整个行业的游戏规则。</blockquote></p><p> Coincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>巧合的是，乔布斯在特斯拉在三藩市国际车展上推出Roadster七个月后推出了iPhone。快进到2021年，看涨者认为，苹果在手机制造领域取得的压倒性成功可以通过Elon Musk的特斯拉在汽车制造领域得到体现。</blockquote></p><p> For this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.</p><p><blockquote>为了实现这一点，让我们首先假设在15年内，买家将要求任何车辆具有大致相似的“外形”。如今，有250个品牌的汽车可满足各种需求和预算，或许还有1,000多种装饰。与此同时，多亏了iPhone，手机硬件已经从无数的风格、尺寸和形式变成了基本上只有一种。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>同样，让我们想象一下，汽车和轻型卡车的生产和价值将不再取决于所需的风格或性能，而是主要取决于车辆内部的软件。</blockquote></p><p> Finally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>最后（这是一个巨大的争论，但是）让我们假设特斯拉将拥有比任何其他供应商或制造商更好的软件——最重要的是更好的自动驾驶能力——无论是在硅谷、底特律、沃尔夫斯堡还是其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，让我们假设特斯拉将成为汽车制造商的苹果。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.</p><p><blockquote>要做到这一点，我们需要忽略苹果不仅仅是一家手机制造商。今年前三季度，iPhone销售额超过1500亿美元，占总销售额的55%。它还报告了“服务”部门的销售额，其中包括广告、数字内容、AppleCare和其他产品线的销售额。如果我们假设所有收入都是由iPhone推动的（尽管不是全部），那么我们得到的iPhone约占苹果销售额的65%-70%。</blockquote></p><p> This implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着苹果也有大量销售Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和配件的业务（今年约1100亿美元）。因此，在我们的“特斯拉就是苹果”类比中，我们需要假设特斯拉将在新产品中进行类似的扩展。</blockquote></p><p> We also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.</p><p><blockquote>我们还需要忽略这样一个事实，即苹果在手机领域的大部分利润来自移动广告和应用程序销售，其中大部分是苹果在上述服务部门报告的。同样，为了留在我们的框架中，我们还需要相信特斯拉会通过其无线更新或自己的应用商店生成类似的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Making all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.</p><p><blockquote>做出所有这些假设，那么“汽车制造”的未来利润率——至少一家制造商——理论上可能会开始向苹果今天产生的利润率上升。</blockquote></p><p> So in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就手机市场份额而言，今年世界各地的人们将购买大约14亿部手机，平均售价约为320美元。苹果拥有全球约16%的市场份额，将售出约2.25亿部iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Just guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.</p><p><blockquote>这里只是猜测，但如果这些iPhones的平均售价为890美元，那么世界上销售的所有其他手机的平均价格需要在125美元左右，数学才有意义。由于苹果可以以如此高的溢价出售其iPhone，并从广告和应用商店销售中产生可观的收入，因此它的利润率高达24%。</blockquote></p><p> In comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，大众汽车VOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%于1938年开始运营，全球市场份额已升至12.0%，净利润率为5.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Toyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.</p><p><blockquote>同样于1938年开始运营的丰田7203，+0.33%TM，+0.05%，全球市场份额也为12.0%，净利润率甚至更高，约为7.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Nokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.&nbsp; In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.</p><p><blockquote>就其价值而言，在iPhone改变游戏规则之前，诺基亚的净利润率为14%。换句话说，即使在苹果出现之前，市场领导者制造手机的利润也是制造汽车的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Anyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，今年世界各地的人们将购买约7500万辆新车，按平均价格3万美元（大概）计算，销售额将超过2.2万亿美元。这大约是手机市场的五倍，手机市场的收入约为4.5亿美元。丰田和大众是世界上最大也是同类规模最好的汽车制造商。其他集团，包括福特F，+1.30%，Stellantis(FCA/Peugeot)STLA，-0.50%，戴姆勒DAI，+2.25%，通用汽车GM，+0.35%，本田7267，-0.53%HMC，-0.40%，宝马BMW，-0.11%和许多其他公司也拥有很大的份额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>今年，特斯拉将销售约100万辆汽车，占全球市场份额1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> And dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&amp;D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>我敢说，特斯拉的每个竞争对手都不愿意放弃更多的市场份额，因此他们将投入大量的研发和资本支出来实现即将到来的电动汽车（EV）转型。仅在资本支出指标上，我们就可以看到这些竞争对手明年的支出实际上将超过特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> A lot more.</p><p><blockquote>更多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0383d691f139a5d04a2a94c2bd399\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL</p><p><blockquote>阿尔伯特桥资本</blockquote></p><p> But still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).</p><p><blockquote>但我们仍然假设所有传统汽车制造商都未能保持份额。让我们也想象一下，该行业的大部分利润最终将流向特斯拉（就像手机流向苹果一样）。</blockquote></p><p> As a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.</p><p><blockquote>作为基线，分析师预计特斯拉今年的销售额将超过500亿美元。超过85%的销售额与其汽车业务相关。</blockquote></p><p> In 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>到2035年，如果电动汽车占所有新车销量的95%，并且特斯拉拥有与苹果今天相同的16%市场份额（显着超过大众或丰田），那么它将生产2200万辆汽车和轻型卡车，并产生超过1万亿美元的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).</p><p><blockquote>今年，分析师预计特斯拉将产生近70亿美元的调整后净利润（其中包括监管信贷推动的约12亿美元利润）。</blockquote></p><p> If Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉能够像苹果今天一样产生24%的净利润率（记住大众为5%，丰田为7%），那么它将在2035年产生约2500亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> As Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉汽车从零增长到100万辆，它在Freemont、Shanghai和很快的Austin建立了生产设施；再次在内华达州、布法罗、德国和奥斯汀建立电池生产超级工厂；以及位于密歇根州、安大略省、上海的其他制造和模具工厂，另外两个位于加利福尼亚州，另外三个位于德国。</blockquote></p><p> To finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.</p><p><blockquote>为了为此次扩张提供资金，特斯拉稀释后的股份从2009年的3500万股增加到2015年的6.41亿股，再到如今的超过11亿股。当然，其中一些作为薪酬给了公司的关键高管，但在很大程度上，这次股票发行有助于为公司迄今为止的惊人增长提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> And if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉打算每年生产超过2000万辆汽车（今年约为100万辆），这将需要更多的资金。但鉴于其强劲的股价和内部现金流产生，我们假设特斯拉的新股发行速度将大幅放缓，至每年仅1.5%的新股发行速度。按照这个速度，到2035年他们将“只有”14亿股。</blockquote></p><p> And in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.</p><p><blockquote>那一年，生产了2200万辆汽车，平均售价为46,000美元（这也是我们的猜测），净利润率为24%，这2500亿美元的收益相当于每股178美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于特斯拉在这种最大化其市场份额的情况下占据主导地位，唯一的负面影响是它将不再是一个长期的故事，而是一个更加暴露于汽车制造周期性的故事。因此，到那时其巨额收入和收入的增长自然会慢得多。但是，为了这次练习，让我们再次假设特斯拉仍然会找到一种方法，在2500亿美元的数字上继续实现10%的每股收益持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> And despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管经济放缓，我们也假设投资者愿意为现在庞大且周期性的业务支付超过20的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> On a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率为22.5，市值为5.6万亿美元，股价为4000美元。</blockquote></p><p> These are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是很大的数字。尽管我们从更乐观的特斯拉多头那里听到了什么，但我们也假设今天的股东只希望从现在到2035年每年赚取10%的利润。</blockquote></p><p> If we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们将4,000美元折价10%回到今天，股票价值1,050美元。</blockquote></p><p> That is pretty close to where we are right now.</p><p><blockquote>这与我们现在的位置非常接近。</blockquote></p><p> So all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，要使1,050美元成为今天的公平股价，上述所有这些都需要发生。</blockquote></p><p> Doubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，像我们一样，怀疑者会认为执行风险是巨大的，这些市场份额（尤其是利润率）可能是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Yet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管我们实际上不能忽视上述手机和汽车行业之间的差异，但信徒们——他们可能确实是对的——确实需要看到苹果式的行业动态、市场份额和利润率，这一切才有意义。</blockquote></p><p> It is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要考虑到，为了使股价在当前水平上有更大的上涨空间，特斯拉实际上必须超越苹果所取得的一切成就。</blockquote></p><p> Whether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.</p><p><blockquote>无论是牛市还是熊市，毫无疑问，马斯克迄今为止所取得的成就简直令人难以置信。五年前，很少有人会想到赫兹会为其汽车租赁车队单次订购10万辆特斯拉，或者特斯拉会在一年内生产和销售100万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> He will continue to do incredible things.&nbsp; He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.</p><p><blockquote>他将继续做不可思议的事情。他改变了世界，也改变了竞争对手的心态。这些都不是问题。他的股价打折的未来是我们今天要问的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market watch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-30 11:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的粉丝和股东正在就他们最喜欢的公司的未来进行更强烈、更响亮的争论。在其中，他们将资本主义历史上最成功的品牌和企业之一进行了类比。他们表示，汽车制造可能会走手机制造的道路，而特斯拉TSLA（+3.43%）与苹果AAPL（-1.82%）有很大相似之处。诺基亚/黑莓/爱立信/摩托罗拉动态。</blockquote></p><p> For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，在21世纪初，这些传统手机制造商会消失是不可想象的。2006年，制造黑莓手机的Research in Motion(RIM)在针对NTP的专利诉讼中败诉，美国地方法院法官发布了销售禁令。国防部介入，声称黑莓禁令对国家安全构成威胁。与此同时，行业领导者诺基亚占据了40%的市场份额，到2007年底，市值达到2300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But something else happened in 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但2007年发生了另一件事。</blockquote></p><p> Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯推出了iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> And that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.</p><p><blockquote>这永远改变了诺基亚、黑莓和整个行业的游戏规则。</blockquote></p><p> Coincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>巧合的是，乔布斯在特斯拉在三藩市国际车展上推出Roadster七个月后推出了iPhone。快进到2021年，看涨者认为，苹果在手机制造领域取得的压倒性成功可以通过Elon Musk的特斯拉在汽车制造领域得到体现。</blockquote></p><p> For this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.</p><p><blockquote>为了实现这一点，让我们首先假设在15年内，买家将要求任何车辆具有大致相似的“外形”。如今，有250个品牌的汽车可满足各种需求和预算，或许还有1,000多种装饰。与此同时，多亏了iPhone，手机硬件已经从无数的风格、尺寸和形式变成了基本上只有一种。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>同样，让我们想象一下，汽车和轻型卡车的生产和价值将不再取决于所需的风格或性能，而是主要取决于车辆内部的软件。</blockquote></p><p> Finally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>最后（这是一个巨大的争论，但是）让我们假设特斯拉将拥有比任何其他供应商或制造商更好的软件——最重要的是更好的自动驾驶能力——无论是在硅谷、底特律、沃尔夫斯堡还是其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，让我们假设特斯拉将成为汽车制造商的苹果。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.</p><p><blockquote>要做到这一点，我们需要忽略苹果不仅仅是一家手机制造商。今年前三季度，iPhone销售额超过1500亿美元，占总销售额的55%。它还报告了“服务”部门的销售额，其中包括广告、数字内容、AppleCare和其他产品线的销售额。如果我们假设所有收入都是由iPhone推动的（尽管不是全部），那么我们得到的iPhone约占苹果销售额的65%-70%。</blockquote></p><p> This implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着苹果也有大量销售Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和配件的业务（今年约1100亿美元）。因此，在我们的“特斯拉就是苹果”类比中，我们需要假设特斯拉将在新产品中进行类似的扩展。</blockquote></p><p> We also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.</p><p><blockquote>我们还需要忽略这样一个事实，即苹果在手机领域的大部分利润来自移动广告和应用程序销售，其中大部分是苹果在上述服务部门报告的。同样，为了留在我们的框架中，我们还需要相信特斯拉会通过其无线更新或自己的应用商店生成类似的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Making all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.</p><p><blockquote>做出所有这些假设，那么“汽车制造”的未来利润率——至少一家制造商——理论上可能会开始向苹果今天产生的利润率上升。</blockquote></p><p> So in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就手机市场份额而言，今年世界各地的人们将购买大约14亿部手机，平均售价约为320美元。苹果拥有全球约16%的市场份额，将售出约2.25亿部iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Just guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.</p><p><blockquote>这里只是猜测，但如果这些iPhones的平均售价为890美元，那么世界上销售的所有其他手机的平均价格需要在125美元左右，数学才有意义。由于苹果可以以如此高的溢价出售其iPhone，并从广告和应用商店销售中产生可观的收入，因此它的利润率高达24%。</blockquote></p><p> In comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，大众汽车VOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%于1938年开始运营，全球市场份额已升至12.0%，净利润率为5.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Toyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.</p><p><blockquote>同样于1938年开始运营的丰田7203，+0.33%TM，+0.05%，全球市场份额也为12.0%，净利润率甚至更高，约为7.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Nokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.&nbsp; In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.</p><p><blockquote>就其价值而言，在iPhone改变游戏规则之前，诺基亚的净利润率为14%。换句话说，即使在苹果出现之前，市场领导者制造手机的利润也是制造汽车的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Anyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，今年世界各地的人们将购买约7500万辆新车，按平均价格3万美元（大概）计算，销售额将超过2.2万亿美元。这大约是手机市场的五倍，手机市场的收入约为4.5亿美元。丰田和大众是世界上最大也是同类规模最好的汽车制造商。其他集团，包括福特F，+1.30%，Stellantis(FCA/Peugeot)STLA，-0.50%，戴姆勒DAI，+2.25%，通用汽车GM，+0.35%，本田7267，-0.53%HMC，-0.40%，宝马BMW，-0.11%和许多其他公司也拥有很大的份额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>今年，特斯拉将销售约100万辆汽车，占全球市场份额1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> And dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&amp;D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>我敢说，特斯拉的每个竞争对手都不愿意放弃更多的市场份额，因此他们将投入大量的研发和资本支出来实现即将到来的电动汽车（EV）转型。仅在资本支出指标上，我们就可以看到这些竞争对手明年的支出实际上将超过特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> A lot more.</p><p><blockquote>更多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0383d691f139a5d04a2a94c2bd399\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL</p><p><blockquote>阿尔伯特桥资本</blockquote></p><p> But still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).</p><p><blockquote>但我们仍然假设所有传统汽车制造商都未能保持份额。让我们也想象一下，该行业的大部分利润最终将流向特斯拉（就像手机流向苹果一样）。</blockquote></p><p> As a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.</p><p><blockquote>作为基线，分析师预计特斯拉今年的销售额将超过500亿美元。超过85%的销售额与其汽车业务相关。</blockquote></p><p> In 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>到2035年，如果电动汽车占所有新车销量的95%，并且特斯拉拥有与苹果今天相同的16%市场份额（显着超过大众或丰田），那么它将生产2200万辆汽车和轻型卡车，并产生超过1万亿美元的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).</p><p><blockquote>今年，分析师预计特斯拉将产生近70亿美元的调整后净利润（其中包括监管信贷推动的约12亿美元利润）。</blockquote></p><p> If Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉能够像苹果今天一样产生24%的净利润率（记住大众为5%，丰田为7%），那么它将在2035年产生约2500亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> As Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉汽车从零增长到100万辆，它在Freemont、Shanghai和很快的Austin建立了生产设施；再次在内华达州、布法罗、德国和奥斯汀建立电池生产超级工厂；以及位于密歇根州、安大略省、上海的其他制造和模具工厂，另外两个位于加利福尼亚州，另外三个位于德国。</blockquote></p><p> To finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.</p><p><blockquote>为了为此次扩张提供资金，特斯拉稀释后的股份从2009年的3500万股增加到2015年的6.41亿股，再到如今的超过11亿股。当然，其中一些作为薪酬给了公司的关键高管，但在很大程度上，这次股票发行有助于为公司迄今为止的惊人增长提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> And if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉打算每年生产超过2000万辆汽车（今年约为100万辆），这将需要更多的资金。但鉴于其强劲的股价和内部现金流产生，我们假设特斯拉的新股发行速度将大幅放缓，至每年仅1.5%的新股发行速度。按照这个速度，到2035年他们将“只有”14亿股。</blockquote></p><p> And in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.</p><p><blockquote>那一年，生产了2200万辆汽车，平均售价为46,000美元（这也是我们的猜测），净利润率为24%，这2500亿美元的收益相当于每股178美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于特斯拉在这种最大化其市场份额的情况下占据主导地位，唯一的负面影响是它将不再是一个长期的故事，而是一个更加暴露于汽车制造周期性的故事。因此，到那时其巨额收入和收入的增长自然会慢得多。但是，为了这次练习，让我们再次假设特斯拉仍然会找到一种方法，在2500亿美元的数字上继续实现10%的每股收益持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> And despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管经济放缓，我们也假设投资者愿意为现在庞大且周期性的业务支付超过20的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> On a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率为22.5，市值为5.6万亿美元，股价为4000美元。</blockquote></p><p> These are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是很大的数字。尽管我们从更乐观的特斯拉多头那里听到了什么，但我们也假设今天的股东只希望从现在到2035年每年赚取10%的利润。</blockquote></p><p> If we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们将4,000美元折价10%回到今天，股票价值1,050美元。</blockquote></p><p> That is pretty close to where we are right now.</p><p><blockquote>这与我们现在的位置非常接近。</blockquote></p><p> So all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，要使1,050美元成为今天的公平股价，上述所有这些都需要发生。</blockquote></p><p> Doubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，像我们一样，怀疑者会认为执行风险是巨大的，这些市场份额（尤其是利润率）可能是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Yet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管我们实际上不能忽视上述手机和汽车行业之间的差异，但信徒们——他们可能确实是对的——确实需要看到苹果式的行业动态、市场份额和利润率，这一切才有意义。</blockquote></p><p> It is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要考虑到，为了使股价在当前水平上有更大的上涨空间，特斯拉实际上必须超越苹果所取得的一切成就。</blockquote></p><p> Whether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.</p><p><blockquote>无论是牛市还是熊市，毫无疑问，马斯克迄今为止所取得的成就简直令人难以置信。五年前，很少有人会想到赫兹会为其汽车租赁车队单次订购10万辆特斯拉，或者特斯拉会在一年内生产和销售100万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> He will continue to do incredible things.&nbsp; He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.</p><p><blockquote>他将继续做不可思议的事情。他改变了世界，也改变了竞争对手的心态。这些都不是问题。他的股价打折的未来是我们今天要问的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-tesla-is-to-become-the-apple-of-car-makers-this-is-what-it-means-for-the-stock-price-and-the-business-11635513589?mod=home-page\">Market watch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-tesla-is-to-become-the-apple-of-car-makers-this-is-what-it-means-for-the-stock-price-and-the-business-11635513589?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2179471352","content_text":"Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.\nFor those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.\nBut something else happened in 2007.\nSteve Jobs introduced the iPhone.\nAnd that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.\nCoincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.\nFor this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.\nSimilarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.\nFinally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.\nIn other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.\nTo do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.\nThis implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.\nWe also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.\nMaking all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.\nSo in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.\nJust guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.\nIn comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.\nToyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.\nNokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.  In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.\nAnyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.\nThis year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.\nAnd dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.\nA lot more.\nALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL\nBut still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).\nAs a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.\nIn 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.\nThis year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).\nIf Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.\nAs Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.\nTo finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.\nAnd if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.\nAnd in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.\nGiven Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.\nAnd despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.\nOn a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.\nThese are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.\nIf we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.\nThat is pretty close to where we are right now.\nSo all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.\nDoubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.\nYet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.\nIt is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.\nWhether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.\nHe will continue to do incredible things.  He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854824954,"gmtCreate":1635434612970,"gmtModify":1635434613100,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVCR\">$NovoCure(NVCR)$</a>buy?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVCR\">$NovoCure(NVCR)$</a>buy?","text":"$NovoCure(NVCR)$buy?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5178857f11e6bfcd46abaa2d3d2da9d","width":"750","height":"1877"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854824954","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1363,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":854825581,"gmtCreate":1635434581314,"gmtModify":1635434581403,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/854825581","repostId":"1153909226","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153909226","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635428011,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1153909226?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-28 21:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rafael Holdings stock plummets after cancer-treatment trial missed primary endpoint<blockquote>癌症治疗试验未达到主要终点后，拉斐尔控股股价暴跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153909226","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Shares of Rafael Holdings Inc. $(RFL)$ plummeted 78% in morning trading Thursday, after the develope","content":"<p>Shares of Rafael Holdings Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RFL\">$(RFL)$</a> plummeted 78% in morning trading Thursday,&nbsp;after the developer of cancer treatments said a Phase 3 trial of CPI-613 (devimistat) in patients with relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia failed to meet its primary endpoint. </p><p><blockquote>拉斐尔控股公司的股票。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RFL\">$(RFL)$</a>周四早盘交易中暴跌78%，此前这家癌症治疗开发商表示，CPI-613（devimistat）针对复发或难治性急性髓性白血病患者的3期试验未能达到其主要终点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0208843fbf8264bc77269e3fd7a5cba5\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company said devimistat, given with Folfirinox (mFFX), a current standard of care chemotherapy regimen, did not significantly improve overall survival. </p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，devimistat与当前标准化疗方案Folfirinox(mFFX)一起服用，并没有显着提高总生存率。</blockquote></p><p> \"While we are disappointed by the outcomes of these well-designed and well-executed studies, we remain committed to furthering our research and development in cancer metabolism for the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers, as our other studies continue,\" said Rafael Chief Executive Sanjeev Luther. </p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们对这些精心设计和执行良好的研究的结果感到失望，但随着我们其他研究的继续，我们仍然致力于进一步推进癌症代谢的研究和开发，以治疗难以治疗的癌症，”拉斐尔首席执行官桑吉夫·路德(Sanjeev Luther)说道。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rafael Holdings stock plummets after cancer-treatment trial missed primary endpoint<blockquote>癌症治疗试验未达到主要终点后，拉斐尔控股股价暴跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRafael Holdings stock plummets after cancer-treatment trial missed primary endpoint<blockquote>癌症治疗试验未达到主要终点后，拉斐尔控股股价暴跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-28 21:33</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Shares of Rafael Holdings Inc. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RFL\">$(RFL)$</a> plummeted 78% in morning trading Thursday,&nbsp;after the developer of cancer treatments said a Phase 3 trial of CPI-613 (devimistat) in patients with relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia failed to meet its primary endpoint. </p><p><blockquote>拉斐尔控股公司的股票。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RFL\">$(RFL)$</a>周四早盘交易中暴跌78%，此前这家癌症治疗开发商表示，CPI-613（devimistat）针对复发或难治性急性髓性白血病患者的3期试验未能达到其主要终点。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0208843fbf8264bc77269e3fd7a5cba5\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"630\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The company said devimistat, given with Folfirinox (mFFX), a current standard of care chemotherapy regimen, did not significantly improve overall survival. </p><p><blockquote>该公司表示，devimistat与当前标准化疗方案Folfirinox(mFFX)一起服用，并没有显着提高总生存率。</blockquote></p><p> \"While we are disappointed by the outcomes of these well-designed and well-executed studies, we remain committed to furthering our research and development in cancer metabolism for the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers, as our other studies continue,\" said Rafael Chief Executive Sanjeev Luther. </p><p><blockquote>“虽然我们对这些精心设计和执行良好的研究的结果感到失望，但随着我们其他研究的继续，我们仍然致力于进一步推进癌症代谢的研究和开发，以治疗难以治疗的癌症，”拉斐尔首席执行官桑吉夫·路德(Sanjeev Luther)说道。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RFL":"Rafael Holdings, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153909226","content_text":"Shares of Rafael Holdings Inc. $(RFL)$ plummeted 78% in morning trading Thursday, after the developer of cancer treatments said a Phase 3 trial of CPI-613 (devimistat) in patients with relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia failed to meet its primary endpoint. \n\nThe company said devimistat, given with Folfirinox (mFFX), a current standard of care chemotherapy regimen, did not significantly improve overall survival. \n\"While we are disappointed by the outcomes of these well-designed and well-executed studies, we remain committed to furthering our research and development in cancer metabolism for the treatment of hard-to-treat cancers, as our other studies continue,\" said Rafael Chief Executive Sanjeev Luther.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RFL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":852370108,"gmtCreate":1635247416840,"gmtModify":1635247983863,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852370108","repostId":"2178475014","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2178475014","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1635208200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2178475014?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-26 08:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why the S&P 500 could continue climbing into year's end, eclipsing its 21% rally so far in 2021<blockquote>为什么标普500可能会在年底继续攀升，超过2021年迄今为止21%的涨幅</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2178475014","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"S&P 500 books 56th record close of year on Monday\nThe S&P 500 has more than doubled since the worst ","content":"<p>S&amp;P 500 books 56th record close of year on Monday</p><p><blockquote>标普500周一创下今年第56个收盘纪录</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fda790a37bd6d005825a66fcef94632\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>The S&amp;P 500 has more than doubled since the worst of last year’s pandemic-induced meltdown.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>自去年大流行引发的最严重的崩溃以来，标普500已经增加了一倍多。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 kicked off a busy week for third-quarter earnings on Monday by clinching its 56th record close of the year, reflecting a stunning 21.6% gain already this year.</p><p><blockquote>周一，这家标普500第三季度财报迎来了繁忙的一周，创下了今年第56个收盘纪录，今年已经上涨了21.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Even more dramatically, the new high-water mark means the S&amp;P 500 has more than doubled since the worst of last year's pandemic-induced meltdown, signifying a 104.1% gain from its bear-market low of 2,237.40 set on March 23, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>更引人注目的是，新的高水位意味着自去年大流行引发的最严重崩溃以来，标普500已经上涨了一倍多，较2020年3月23日创下的熊市低点2,237.40点上涨了104.1%。道琼斯市场数据。</blockquote></p><p> Despite its sharp gains, the market's record-setting ways could still stick around a while longer, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, who pointed to several reasons, including seasonal and economic factors, that indicate the S&amp;P 500 could keep climbing into year's end.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick表示，尽管大幅上涨，但市场创纪录的方式仍可能持续一段时间，他指出了包括季节性和经济因素在内的几个原因，表明标普500可能会继续攀升到年底。</blockquote></p><p> To start, there already was \"a sort of stealth correction\" this summer, where even while the S&amp;P 500 has gained 8% since the end of April, the average individual stock in the benchmark actually endured a more-than-10% correction, Detrick said Monday in emailed commentary.</p><p><blockquote>首先，今年夏天已经出现了“某种隐形调整”，尽管标普500自4月底以来上涨了8%，但基准中的平均个股实际上经历了超过10%的调整，Detrick周一在电子邮件评论中表示。</blockquote></p><p> However, late October often marks the historical low before stocks typically rally into year's end.</p><p><blockquote>然而，十月下旬通常标志着股市通常在年底反弹之前的历史低点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d711ebbee77da3d059a453e6ecffdebd\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Has the S&amp;P 500 already hit its late October low? LPL Research, FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>标普500是否已经触及10月下旬低点？LPL研究，FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"In fact, the fourth quarter as a whole is by far the strongest quarter historically, on average, with the S&amp;P 500 rising 4% and finishing higher nearly 80% of the time,\" he wrote. \"November, meanwhile, is the strongest month of the year -- both since 1950 and over the past decade.\"</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“事实上，平均而言，第四季度整体是迄今为止历史上最强劲的季度，标普500上涨了4%，并且在近80%的时间里收高。”“与此同时，11月是一年中最强劲的月份——无论是自1950年以来还是过去十年。”</blockquote></p><p> Beyond the seasonal, he pointed to \"economically sensitive groups of stocks, commodities and even bond yields,\" like financials <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLF\">$(XLF)$</a> and copper , that were \"largely stagnated since early May,\" but recently have begun to push higher. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 1.634% Monday, representing a more-than-50 basis-point increase since its low in July.</p><p><blockquote>除了季节性因素，他还指出了“对经济敏感的股票、大宗商品甚至债券收益率群体”，比如金融股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLF\">$(XLF)$</a>和铜，“自5月初以来基本停滞”，但最近开始走高。10年期国债收益率周一攀升至1.634%左右，自7月份低点以来上涨了50多个基点。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average also notched a record close on Monday, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index ended less than 1% away from its Sept. 7 closing record, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>根据道琼斯市场数据，道琼斯工业平均指数周一也创下了创纪录的收盘纪录，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数收盘距离9月7日的收盘纪录不到1%。</blockquote></p><p> Detrick also pointed to the sharp decline in U.S. COVID-19 cases since early September as a bullish factor for stocks and the record number of U.S. workers voluntarily quitting their jobs.</p><p><blockquote>德特里克还指出，自9月初以来，美国新冠肺炎病例的急剧下降是股市的看涨因素，美国工人自愿辞职的人数创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"Typically, quits are viewed as a sign of a strong economy and healthy labor market, as the most common reason for people voluntarily leaving their job is to start a new one -- something workers are more hesitant to do in times of economic uncertainty,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“通常，辞职被视为经济强劲和劳动力市场健康的标志，因为人们自愿离职的最常见原因是开始一份新工作——在经济不确定时期，工人们更不愿意这样做，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, this fall could play out differently, with factors such as the Federal Reserve grappling with higher inflation, which has been sticking around longer than expected, and the central bank's plans to start reducing its $120 billion in monthly emergency purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, a major source of market liquidity since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，由于美联储正在努力应对通胀上升（通胀持续时间比预期更长）以及央行计划开始减少每月1200亿美元紧急购买国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券等因素，今年的下跌可能会有所不同，自2020年3月以来，抵押贷款支持证券一直是市场流动性的主要来源。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why the S&P 500 could continue climbing into year's end, eclipsing its 21% rally so far in 2021<blockquote>为什么标普500可能会在年底继续攀升，超过2021年迄今为止21%的涨幅</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy the S&P 500 could continue climbing into year's end, eclipsing its 21% rally so far in 2021<blockquote>为什么标普500可能会在年底继续攀升，超过2021年迄今为止21%的涨幅</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-26 08:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>S&amp;P 500 books 56th record close of year on Monday</p><p><blockquote>标普500周一创下今年第56个收盘纪录</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8fda790a37bd6d005825a66fcef94632\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"445\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>The S&amp;P 500 has more than doubled since the worst of last year’s pandemic-induced meltdown.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>自去年大流行引发的最严重的崩溃以来，标普500已经增加了一倍多。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 kicked off a busy week for third-quarter earnings on Monday by clinching its 56th record close of the year, reflecting a stunning 21.6% gain already this year.</p><p><blockquote>周一，这家标普500第三季度财报迎来了繁忙的一周，创下了今年第56个收盘纪录，今年已经上涨了21.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Even more dramatically, the new high-water mark means the S&amp;P 500 has more than doubled since the worst of last year's pandemic-induced meltdown, signifying a 104.1% gain from its bear-market low of 2,237.40 set on March 23, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>更引人注目的是，新的高水位意味着自去年大流行引发的最严重崩溃以来，标普500已经上涨了一倍多，较2020年3月23日创下的熊市低点2,237.40点上涨了104.1%。道琼斯市场数据。</blockquote></p><p> Despite its sharp gains, the market's record-setting ways could still stick around a while longer, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, who pointed to several reasons, including seasonal and economic factors, that indicate the S&amp;P 500 could keep climbing into year's end.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick表示，尽管大幅上涨，但市场创纪录的方式仍可能持续一段时间，他指出了包括季节性和经济因素在内的几个原因，表明标普500可能会继续攀升到年底。</blockquote></p><p> To start, there already was \"a sort of stealth correction\" this summer, where even while the S&amp;P 500 has gained 8% since the end of April, the average individual stock in the benchmark actually endured a more-than-10% correction, Detrick said Monday in emailed commentary.</p><p><blockquote>首先，今年夏天已经出现了“某种隐形调整”，尽管标普500自4月底以来上涨了8%，但基准中的平均个股实际上经历了超过10%的调整，Detrick周一在电子邮件评论中表示。</blockquote></p><p> However, late October often marks the historical low before stocks typically rally into year's end.</p><p><blockquote>然而，十月下旬通常标志着股市通常在年底反弹之前的历史低点。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d711ebbee77da3d059a453e6ecffdebd\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Has the S&amp;P 500 already hit its late October low? LPL Research, FactSet</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>标普500是否已经触及10月下旬低点？LPL研究，FactSet</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"In fact, the fourth quarter as a whole is by far the strongest quarter historically, on average, with the S&amp;P 500 rising 4% and finishing higher nearly 80% of the time,\" he wrote. \"November, meanwhile, is the strongest month of the year -- both since 1950 and over the past decade.\"</p><p><blockquote>他写道：“事实上，平均而言，第四季度整体是迄今为止历史上最强劲的季度，标普500上涨了4%，并且在近80%的时间里收高。”“与此同时，11月是一年中最强劲的月份——无论是自1950年以来还是过去十年。”</blockquote></p><p> Beyond the seasonal, he pointed to \"economically sensitive groups of stocks, commodities and even bond yields,\" like financials <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLF\">$(XLF)$</a> and copper , that were \"largely stagnated since early May,\" but recently have begun to push higher. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 1.634% Monday, representing a more-than-50 basis-point increase since its low in July.</p><p><blockquote>除了季节性因素，他还指出了“对经济敏感的股票、大宗商品甚至债券收益率群体”，比如金融股<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XLF\">$(XLF)$</a>和铜，“自5月初以来基本停滞”，但最近开始走高。10年期国债收益率周一攀升至1.634%左右，自7月份低点以来上涨了50多个基点。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow Jones Industrial Average also notched a record close on Monday, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index ended less than 1% away from its Sept. 7 closing record, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>根据道琼斯市场数据，道琼斯工业平均指数周一也创下了创纪录的收盘纪录，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数收盘距离9月7日的收盘纪录不到1%。</blockquote></p><p> Detrick also pointed to the sharp decline in U.S. COVID-19 cases since early September as a bullish factor for stocks and the record number of U.S. workers voluntarily quitting their jobs.</p><p><blockquote>德特里克还指出，自9月初以来，美国新冠肺炎病例的急剧下降是股市的看涨因素，美国工人自愿辞职的人数创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"Typically, quits are viewed as a sign of a strong economy and healthy labor market, as the most common reason for people voluntarily leaving their job is to start a new one -- something workers are more hesitant to do in times of economic uncertainty,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>“通常，辞职被视为经济强劲和劳动力市场健康的标志，因为人们自愿离职的最常见原因是开始一份新工作——在经济不确定时期，工人们更不愿意这样做，”他说。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, this fall could play out differently, with factors such as the Federal Reserve grappling with higher inflation, which has been sticking around longer than expected, and the central bank's plans to start reducing its $120 billion in monthly emergency purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, a major source of market liquidity since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，由于美联储正在努力应对通胀上升（通胀持续时间比预期更长）以及央行计划开始减少每月1200亿美元紧急购买国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券等因素，今年的下跌可能会有所不同，自2020年3月以来，抵押贷款支持证券一直是市场流动性的主要来源。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-s-p-500-could-continue-climbing-into-years-end-eclipsing-its-21-rally-so-far-in-2021-11635206174?mod=mw_latestnews\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF博时","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500ETF-iShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","OEX":"标普100",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SH":"做空标普500-Proshares","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares","SDS":"两倍做空标普500 ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SSO":"2倍做多标普500ETF-ProShares"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-s-p-500-could-continue-climbing-into-years-end-eclipsing-its-21-rally-so-far-in-2021-11635206174?mod=mw_latestnews","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2178475014","content_text":"S&P 500 books 56th record close of year on Monday\nThe S&P 500 has more than doubled since the worst of last year’s pandemic-induced meltdown.\nThe S&P 500 kicked off a busy week for third-quarter earnings on Monday by clinching its 56th record close of the year, reflecting a stunning 21.6% gain already this year.\nEven more dramatically, the new high-water mark means the S&P 500 has more than doubled since the worst of last year's pandemic-induced meltdown, signifying a 104.1% gain from its bear-market low of 2,237.40 set on March 23, 2020, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nDespite its sharp gains, the market's record-setting ways could still stick around a while longer, according to Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, who pointed to several reasons, including seasonal and economic factors, that indicate the S&P 500 could keep climbing into year's end.\nTo start, there already was \"a sort of stealth correction\" this summer, where even while the S&P 500 has gained 8% since the end of April, the average individual stock in the benchmark actually endured a more-than-10% correction, Detrick said Monday in emailed commentary.\nHowever, late October often marks the historical low before stocks typically rally into year's end.\nHas the S&P 500 already hit its late October low? LPL Research, FactSet\n\"In fact, the fourth quarter as a whole is by far the strongest quarter historically, on average, with the S&P 500 rising 4% and finishing higher nearly 80% of the time,\" he wrote. \"November, meanwhile, is the strongest month of the year -- both since 1950 and over the past decade.\"\nBeyond the seasonal, he pointed to \"economically sensitive groups of stocks, commodities and even bond yields,\" like financials $(XLF)$ and copper , that were \"largely stagnated since early May,\" but recently have begun to push higher. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to around 1.634% Monday, representing a more-than-50 basis-point increase since its low in July.\nThe Dow Jones Industrial Average also notched a record close on Monday, while the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index ended less than 1% away from its Sept. 7 closing record, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nDetrick also pointed to the sharp decline in U.S. COVID-19 cases since early September as a bullish factor for stocks and the record number of U.S. workers voluntarily quitting their jobs.\n\"Typically, quits are viewed as a sign of a strong economy and healthy labor market, as the most common reason for people voluntarily leaving their job is to start a new one -- something workers are more hesitant to do in times of economic uncertainty,\" he said.\nTo be sure, this fall could play out differently, with factors such as the Federal Reserve grappling with higher inflation, which has been sticking around longer than expected, and the central bank's plans to start reducing its $120 billion in monthly emergency purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, a major source of market liquidity since March 2020.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"OEX":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"SSO":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"OEF":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SPXU":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"IVV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":843341395,"gmtCreate":1635810244854,"gmtModify":1635810244854,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843341395","repostId":"2180209403","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849538279,"gmtCreate":1635765028494,"gmtModify":1635765028494,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"like","listText":"like","text":"like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849538279","repostId":"2180275337","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2180275337","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1635751276,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2180275337?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-01 15:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"5 Stocks To Watch For November 1, 2021<blockquote>2021年11月1日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2180275337","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\tWall Street expects  PG&amp;E Corporation  (NYSE: PCG) to report quarterly earnings at $0.26 per share on revenue of $5.37 billion before the opening bell. PG&amp;E shares rose 0.6% to $11.67 in after-hours trading.\n","content":"<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能引起投资者关注的一些股票包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects <b>PG&amp;E Corporation </b> (NYSE:PCG) to report quarterly earnings at $0.26 per share on revenue of $5.37 billion before the opening bell. PG&amp;E shares rose 0.6% to $11.67 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b>Xpeng Inc - ADR </b>(NYSE:XPEV) said it delivered 10,138 vehicles in October, a 233% surge year-on-year, despite the semiconductor shortage. Xpeng shares rose 0.4% to $46.80 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting <b>McKesson Corporation </b> (NYSE:MCK) to have earned $4.62 per share on revenue of $63.12 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets clsoe. McKesson shares rose 1.4% to close at $207.88 on Friday.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>After the opening bell, <b>Clorox Co </b> (NYSE:CLX) is projected to post quarterly earnings at $1.03 per share on revenue of $1.70 billion. Clorox shares gained 0.1% to $163.10 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li>Analysts expect <b>ON Semiconductor Corp </b> (NASDAQ:ON) to post quarterly earnings at $0.74 per share on revenue of $1.71 billion before the opening bell. ON Semiconductor shares rose 1.8% to $48.94 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预计<b>PG&amp;E公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PCG）将在开盘前公布季度收益为每股0.26美元，营收为53.7亿美元。PG&amp;E股价在盘后交易中上涨0.6%，至11.67美元。</li><li><b>小鹏汽车-ADR</b>(NYSE：XPEV)表示，尽管半导体短缺，该公司10月份交付了10,138辆汽车，同比激增233%。小鹏汽车股价在盘后交易时段上涨0.4%，至46.80美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>麦克森公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MCK）最近一个季度每股收益为4.62美元，营收为631.2亿美元。该公司将在上市后发布财报。McKesson股价周五上涨1.4%，收于207.88美元。</li></ul><ul><li>开盘后，<b>Clorox公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CLX）预计季度收益为每股1.03美元，营收为17亿美元。高乐氏股价在盘后交易中上涨0.1%，至163.10美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>安森美半导体公司</b>（纳斯达克：ON）开盘前公布季度收益为每股0.74美元，营收为17.1亿美元。安森美半导体股价在盘后交易中上涨1.8%，至48.94美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5 Stocks To Watch For November 1, 2021<blockquote>2021年11月1日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5 Stocks To Watch For November 1, 2021<blockquote>2021年11月1日值得关注的5只股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-01 15:21</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:</p><p><blockquote>今天可能引起投资者关注的一些股票包括：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wall Street expects <b>PG&amp;E Corporation </b> (NYSE:PCG) to report quarterly earnings at $0.26 per share on revenue of $5.37 billion before the opening bell. PG&amp;E shares rose 0.6% to $11.67 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li><b>Xpeng Inc - ADR </b>(NYSE:XPEV) said it delivered 10,138 vehicles in October, a 233% surge year-on-year, despite the semiconductor shortage. Xpeng shares rose 0.4% to $46.80 in the after-hours trading session.</li>  <li>Analysts are expecting <b>McKesson Corporation </b> (NYSE:MCK) to have earned $4.62 per share on revenue of $63.12 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets clsoe. McKesson shares rose 1.4% to close at $207.88 on Friday.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li>After the opening bell, <b>Clorox Co </b> (NYSE:CLX) is projected to post quarterly earnings at $1.03 per share on revenue of $1.70 billion. Clorox shares gained 0.1% to $163.10 in after-hours trading.</li>  <li>Analysts expect <b>ON Semiconductor Corp </b> (NASDAQ:ON) to post quarterly earnings at $0.74 per share on revenue of $1.71 billion before the opening bell. ON Semiconductor shares rose 1.8% to $48.94 in after-hours trading.</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>华尔街预计<b>PG&amp;E公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PCG）将在开盘前公布季度收益为每股0.26美元，营收为53.7亿美元。PG&amp;E股价在盘后交易中上涨0.6%，至11.67美元。</li><li><b>小鹏汽车-ADR</b>(NYSE：XPEV)表示，尽管半导体短缺，该公司10月份交付了10,138辆汽车，同比激增233%。小鹏汽车股价在盘后交易时段上涨0.4%，至46.80美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>麦克森公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MCK）最近一个季度每股收益为4.62美元，营收为631.2亿美元。该公司将在上市后发布财报。McKesson股价周五上涨1.4%，收于207.88美元。</li></ul><ul><li>开盘后，<b>Clorox公司</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：CLX）预计季度收益为每股1.03美元，营收为17亿美元。高乐氏股价在盘后交易中上涨0.1%，至163.10美元。</li><li>分析师预计<b>安森美半导体公司</b>（纳斯达克：ON）开盘前公布季度收益为每股0.74美元，营收为17.1亿美元。安森美半导体股价在盘后交易中上涨1.8%，至48.94美元。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏汽车","PCG":"太平洋煤气电力","ON":"安森美半导体"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2180275337","content_text":"Some of the stocks that may grab investor focus today are:\n\nWall Street expects PG&E Corporation  (NYSE:PCG) to report quarterly earnings at $0.26 per share on revenue of $5.37 billion before the opening bell. PG&E shares rose 0.6% to $11.67 in after-hours trading.\nXpeng Inc - ADR (NYSE:XPEV) said it delivered 10,138 vehicles in October, a 233% surge year-on-year, despite the semiconductor shortage. Xpeng shares rose 0.4% to $46.80 in the after-hours trading session.\nAnalysts are expecting McKesson Corporation  (NYSE:MCK) to have earned $4.62 per share on revenue of $63.12 billion for the latest quarter. The company will release earnings after the markets clsoe. McKesson shares rose 1.4% to close at $207.88 on Friday.\n\n\nAfter the opening bell, Clorox Co  (NYSE:CLX) is projected to post quarterly earnings at $1.03 per share on revenue of $1.70 billion. Clorox shares gained 0.1% to $163.10 in after-hours trading.\nAnalysts expect ON Semiconductor Corp  (NASDAQ:ON) to post quarterly earnings at $0.74 per share on revenue of $1.71 billion before the opening bell. ON Semiconductor shares rose 1.8% to $48.94 in after-hours trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ON":0.9,"PCG":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841256075,"gmtCreate":1635917918845,"gmtModify":1635917918845,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"thanks&nbsp;","listText":"thanks&nbsp;","text":"thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841256075","repostId":"2180782003","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1251,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871374839,"gmtCreate":1637031584081,"gmtModify":1637031584081,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871374839","repostId":"1140879609","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3232,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840491104,"gmtCreate":1635668150507,"gmtModify":1635668294520,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice&nbsp;","listText":"nice&nbsp;","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840491104","repostId":"2179471352","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2179471352","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1635566092,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2179471352?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-30 11:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2179471352","media":"Market watch","summary":"For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion , the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion mark","content":"<p>Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的粉丝和股东正在就他们最喜欢的公司的未来进行更强烈、更响亮的争论。在其中，他们将资本主义历史上最成功的品牌和企业之一进行了类比。他们表示，汽车制造可能会走手机制造的道路，而特斯拉TSLA（+3.43%）与苹果AAPL（-1.82%）有很大相似之处。诺基亚/黑莓/爱立信/摩托罗拉动态。</blockquote></p><p> For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，在21世纪初，这些传统手机制造商会消失是不可想象的。2006年，制造黑莓手机的Research in Motion(RIM)在针对NTP的专利诉讼中败诉，美国地方法院法官发布了销售禁令。国防部介入，声称黑莓禁令对国家安全构成威胁。与此同时，行业领导者诺基亚占据了40%的市场份额，到2007年底，市值达到2300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But something else happened in 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但2007年发生了另一件事。</blockquote></p><p> Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯推出了iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> And that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.</p><p><blockquote>这永远改变了诺基亚、黑莓和整个行业的游戏规则。</blockquote></p><p> Coincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>巧合的是，乔布斯在特斯拉在三藩市国际车展上推出Roadster七个月后推出了iPhone。快进到2021年，看涨者认为，苹果在手机制造领域取得的压倒性成功可以通过Elon Musk的特斯拉在汽车制造领域得到体现。</blockquote></p><p> For this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.</p><p><blockquote>为了实现这一点，让我们首先假设在15年内，买家将要求任何车辆具有大致相似的“外形”。如今，有250个品牌的汽车可满足各种需求和预算，或许还有1,000多种装饰。与此同时，多亏了iPhone，手机硬件已经从无数的风格、尺寸和形式变成了基本上只有一种。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>同样，让我们想象一下，汽车和轻型卡车的生产和价值将不再取决于所需的风格或性能，而是主要取决于车辆内部的软件。</blockquote></p><p> Finally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>最后（这是一个巨大的争论，但是）让我们假设特斯拉将拥有比任何其他供应商或制造商更好的软件——最重要的是更好的自动驾驶能力——无论是在硅谷、底特律、沃尔夫斯堡还是其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，让我们假设特斯拉将成为汽车制造商的苹果。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.</p><p><blockquote>要做到这一点，我们需要忽略苹果不仅仅是一家手机制造商。今年前三季度，iPhone销售额超过1500亿美元，占总销售额的55%。它还报告了“服务”部门的销售额，其中包括广告、数字内容、AppleCare和其他产品线的销售额。如果我们假设所有收入都是由iPhone推动的（尽管不是全部），那么我们得到的iPhone约占苹果销售额的65%-70%。</blockquote></p><p> This implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着苹果也有大量销售Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和配件的业务（今年约1100亿美元）。因此，在我们的“特斯拉就是苹果”类比中，我们需要假设特斯拉将在新产品中进行类似的扩展。</blockquote></p><p> We also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.</p><p><blockquote>我们还需要忽略这样一个事实，即苹果在手机领域的大部分利润来自移动广告和应用程序销售，其中大部分是苹果在上述服务部门报告的。同样，为了留在我们的框架中，我们还需要相信特斯拉会通过其无线更新或自己的应用商店生成类似的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Making all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.</p><p><blockquote>做出所有这些假设，那么“汽车制造”的未来利润率——至少一家制造商——理论上可能会开始向苹果今天产生的利润率上升。</blockquote></p><p> So in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就手机市场份额而言，今年世界各地的人们将购买大约14亿部手机，平均售价约为320美元。苹果拥有全球约16%的市场份额，将售出约2.25亿部iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Just guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.</p><p><blockquote>这里只是猜测，但如果这些iPhones的平均售价为890美元，那么世界上销售的所有其他手机的平均价格需要在125美元左右，数学才有意义。由于苹果可以以如此高的溢价出售其iPhone，并从广告和应用商店销售中产生可观的收入，因此它的利润率高达24%。</blockquote></p><p> In comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，大众汽车VOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%于1938年开始运营，全球市场份额已升至12.0%，净利润率为5.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Toyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.</p><p><blockquote>同样于1938年开始运营的丰田7203，+0.33%TM，+0.05%，全球市场份额也为12.0%，净利润率甚至更高，约为7.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Nokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.&nbsp; In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.</p><p><blockquote>就其价值而言，在iPhone改变游戏规则之前，诺基亚的净利润率为14%。换句话说，即使在苹果出现之前，市场领导者制造手机的利润也是制造汽车的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Anyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，今年世界各地的人们将购买约7500万辆新车，按平均价格3万美元（大概）计算，销售额将超过2.2万亿美元。这大约是手机市场的五倍，手机市场的收入约为4.5亿美元。丰田和大众是世界上最大也是同类规模最好的汽车制造商。其他集团，包括福特F，+1.30%，Stellantis(FCA/Peugeot)STLA，-0.50%，戴姆勒DAI，+2.25%，通用汽车GM，+0.35%，本田7267，-0.53%HMC，-0.40%，宝马BMW，-0.11%和许多其他公司也拥有很大的份额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>今年，特斯拉将销售约100万辆汽车，占全球市场份额1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> And dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&amp;D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>我敢说，特斯拉的每个竞争对手都不愿意放弃更多的市场份额，因此他们将投入大量的研发和资本支出来实现即将到来的电动汽车（EV）转型。仅在资本支出指标上，我们就可以看到这些竞争对手明年的支出实际上将超过特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> A lot more.</p><p><blockquote>更多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0383d691f139a5d04a2a94c2bd399\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL</p><p><blockquote>阿尔伯特桥资本</blockquote></p><p> But still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).</p><p><blockquote>但我们仍然假设所有传统汽车制造商都未能保持份额。让我们也想象一下，该行业的大部分利润最终将流向特斯拉（就像手机流向苹果一样）。</blockquote></p><p> As a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.</p><p><blockquote>作为基线，分析师预计特斯拉今年的销售额将超过500亿美元。超过85%的销售额与其汽车业务相关。</blockquote></p><p> In 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>到2035年，如果电动汽车占所有新车销量的95%，并且特斯拉拥有与苹果今天相同的16%市场份额（显着超过大众或丰田），那么它将生产2200万辆汽车和轻型卡车，并产生超过1万亿美元的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).</p><p><blockquote>今年，分析师预计特斯拉将产生近70亿美元的调整后净利润（其中包括监管信贷推动的约12亿美元利润）。</blockquote></p><p> If Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉能够像苹果今天一样产生24%的净利润率（记住大众为5%，丰田为7%），那么它将在2035年产生约2500亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> As Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉汽车从零增长到100万辆，它在Freemont、Shanghai和很快的Austin建立了生产设施；再次在内华达州、布法罗、德国和奥斯汀建立电池生产超级工厂；以及位于密歇根州、安大略省、上海的其他制造和模具工厂，另外两个位于加利福尼亚州，另外三个位于德国。</blockquote></p><p> To finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.</p><p><blockquote>为了为此次扩张提供资金，特斯拉稀释后的股份从2009年的3500万股增加到2015年的6.41亿股，再到如今的超过11亿股。当然，其中一些作为薪酬给了公司的关键高管，但在很大程度上，这次股票发行有助于为公司迄今为止的惊人增长提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> And if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉打算每年生产超过2000万辆汽车（今年约为100万辆），这将需要更多的资金。但鉴于其强劲的股价和内部现金流产生，我们假设特斯拉的新股发行速度将大幅放缓，至每年仅1.5%的新股发行速度。按照这个速度，到2035年他们将“只有”14亿股。</blockquote></p><p> And in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.</p><p><blockquote>那一年，生产了2200万辆汽车，平均售价为46,000美元（这也是我们的猜测），净利润率为24%，这2500亿美元的收益相当于每股178美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于特斯拉在这种最大化其市场份额的情况下占据主导地位，唯一的负面影响是它将不再是一个长期的故事，而是一个更加暴露于汽车制造周期性的故事。因此，到那时其巨额收入和收入的增长自然会慢得多。但是，为了这次练习，让我们再次假设特斯拉仍然会找到一种方法，在2500亿美元的数字上继续实现10%的每股收益持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> And despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管经济放缓，我们也假设投资者愿意为现在庞大且周期性的业务支付超过20的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> On a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率为22.5，市值为5.6万亿美元，股价为4000美元。</blockquote></p><p> These are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是很大的数字。尽管我们从更乐观的特斯拉多头那里听到了什么，但我们也假设今天的股东只希望从现在到2035年每年赚取10%的利润。</blockquote></p><p> If we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们将4,000美元折价10%回到今天，股票价值1,050美元。</blockquote></p><p> That is pretty close to where we are right now.</p><p><blockquote>这与我们现在的位置非常接近。</blockquote></p><p> So all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，要使1,050美元成为今天的公平股价，上述所有这些都需要发生。</blockquote></p><p> Doubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，像我们一样，怀疑者会认为执行风险是巨大的，这些市场份额（尤其是利润率）可能是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Yet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管我们实际上不能忽视上述手机和汽车行业之间的差异，但信徒们——他们可能确实是对的——确实需要看到苹果式的行业动态、市场份额和利润率，这一切才有意义。</blockquote></p><p> It is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要考虑到，为了使股价在当前水平上有更大的上涨空间，特斯拉实际上必须超越苹果所取得的一切成就。</blockquote></p><p> Whether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.</p><p><blockquote>无论是牛市还是熊市，毫无疑问，马斯克迄今为止所取得的成就简直令人难以置信。五年前，很少有人会想到赫兹会为其汽车租赁车队单次订购10万辆特斯拉，或者特斯拉会在一年内生产和销售100万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> He will continue to do incredible things.&nbsp; He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.</p><p><blockquote>他将继续做不可思议的事情。他改变了世界，也改变了竞争对手的心态。这些都不是问题。他的股价打折的未来是我们今天要问的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1616996754749","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Opinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOpinion:Here's the math for Tesla's stock price if it becomes the Apple of car makers<blockquote>观点：如果特斯拉成为汽车制造商的苹果，其股价的计算结果如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Market watch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-30 11:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的粉丝和股东正在就他们最喜欢的公司的未来进行更强烈、更响亮的争论。在其中，他们将资本主义历史上最成功的品牌和企业之一进行了类比。他们表示，汽车制造可能会走手机制造的道路，而特斯拉TSLA（+3.43%）与苹果AAPL（-1.82%）有很大相似之处。诺基亚/黑莓/爱立信/摩托罗拉动态。</blockquote></p><p> For those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些不知道的人来说，在21世纪初，这些传统手机制造商会消失是不可想象的。2006年，制造黑莓手机的Research in Motion(RIM)在针对NTP的专利诉讼中败诉，美国地方法院法官发布了销售禁令。国防部介入，声称黑莓禁令对国家安全构成威胁。与此同时，行业领导者诺基亚占据了40%的市场份额，到2007年底，市值达到2300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> But something else happened in 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但2007年发生了另一件事。</blockquote></p><p> Steve Jobs introduced the iPhone.</p><p><blockquote>史蒂夫·乔布斯推出了iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> And that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.</p><p><blockquote>这永远改变了诺基亚、黑莓和整个行业的游戏规则。</blockquote></p><p> Coincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>巧合的是，乔布斯在特斯拉在三藩市国际车展上推出Roadster七个月后推出了iPhone。快进到2021年，看涨者认为，苹果在手机制造领域取得的压倒性成功可以通过Elon Musk的特斯拉在汽车制造领域得到体现。</blockquote></p><p> For this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.</p><p><blockquote>为了实现这一点，让我们首先假设在15年内，买家将要求任何车辆具有大致相似的“外形”。如今，有250个品牌的汽车可满足各种需求和预算，或许还有1,000多种装饰。与此同时，多亏了iPhone，手机硬件已经从无数的风格、尺寸和形式变成了基本上只有一种。</blockquote></p><p> Similarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.</p><p><blockquote>同样，让我们想象一下，汽车和轻型卡车的生产和价值将不再取决于所需的风格或性能，而是主要取决于车辆内部的软件。</blockquote></p><p> Finally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote>最后（这是一个巨大的争论，但是）让我们假设特斯拉将拥有比任何其他供应商或制造商更好的软件——最重要的是更好的自动驾驶能力——无论是在硅谷、底特律、沃尔夫斯堡还是其他地方。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，让我们假设特斯拉将成为汽车制造商的苹果。</blockquote></p><p> To do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.</p><p><blockquote>要做到这一点，我们需要忽略苹果不仅仅是一家手机制造商。今年前三季度，iPhone销售额超过1500亿美元，占总销售额的55%。它还报告了“服务”部门的销售额，其中包括广告、数字内容、AppleCare和其他产品线的销售额。如果我们假设所有收入都是由iPhone推动的（尽管不是全部），那么我们得到的iPhone约占苹果销售额的65%-70%。</blockquote></p><p> This implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着苹果也有大量销售Mac、iPad、可穿戴设备和配件的业务（今年约1100亿美元）。因此，在我们的“特斯拉就是苹果”类比中，我们需要假设特斯拉将在新产品中进行类似的扩展。</blockquote></p><p> We also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.</p><p><blockquote>我们还需要忽略这样一个事实，即苹果在手机领域的大部分利润来自移动广告和应用程序销售，其中大部分是苹果在上述服务部门报告的。同样，为了留在我们的框架中，我们还需要相信特斯拉会通过其无线更新或自己的应用商店生成类似的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Making all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.</p><p><blockquote>做出所有这些假设，那么“汽车制造”的未来利润率——至少一家制造商——理论上可能会开始向苹果今天产生的利润率上升。</blockquote></p><p> So in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.</p><p><blockquote>因此，就手机市场份额而言，今年世界各地的人们将购买大约14亿部手机，平均售价约为320美元。苹果拥有全球约16%的市场份额，将售出约2.25亿部iPhone。</blockquote></p><p> Just guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.</p><p><blockquote>这里只是猜测，但如果这些iPhones的平均售价为890美元，那么世界上销售的所有其他手机的平均价格需要在125美元左右，数学才有意义。由于苹果可以以如此高的溢价出售其iPhone，并从广告和应用商店销售中产生可观的收入，因此它的利润率高达24%。</blockquote></p><p> In comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，大众汽车VOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%于1938年开始运营，全球市场份额已升至12.0%，净利润率为5.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Toyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.</p><p><blockquote>同样于1938年开始运营的丰田7203，+0.33%TM，+0.05%，全球市场份额也为12.0%，净利润率甚至更高，约为7.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Nokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.&nbsp; In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.</p><p><blockquote>就其价值而言，在iPhone改变游戏规则之前，诺基亚的净利润率为14%。换句话说，即使在苹果出现之前，市场领导者制造手机的利润也是制造汽车的两倍多。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Anyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，今年世界各地的人们将购买约7500万辆新车，按平均价格3万美元（大概）计算，销售额将超过2.2万亿美元。这大约是手机市场的五倍，手机市场的收入约为4.5亿美元。丰田和大众是世界上最大也是同类规模最好的汽车制造商。其他集团，包括福特F，+1.30%，Stellantis(FCA/Peugeot)STLA，-0.50%，戴姆勒DAI，+2.25%，通用汽车GM，+0.35%，本田7267，-0.53%HMC，-0.40%，宝马BMW，-0.11%和许多其他公司也拥有很大的份额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.</p><p><blockquote>今年，特斯拉将销售约100万辆汽车，占全球市场份额1.3%。</blockquote></p><p> And dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&amp;D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>我敢说，特斯拉的每个竞争对手都不愿意放弃更多的市场份额，因此他们将投入大量的研发和资本支出来实现即将到来的电动汽车（EV）转型。仅在资本支出指标上，我们就可以看到这些竞争对手明年的支出实际上将超过特斯拉。</blockquote></p><p> A lot more.</p><p><blockquote>更多。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0b0383d691f139a5d04a2a94c2bd399\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">ALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL</p><p><blockquote>阿尔伯特桥资本</blockquote></p><p> But still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).</p><p><blockquote>但我们仍然假设所有传统汽车制造商都未能保持份额。让我们也想象一下，该行业的大部分利润最终将流向特斯拉（就像手机流向苹果一样）。</blockquote></p><p> As a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.</p><p><blockquote>作为基线，分析师预计特斯拉今年的销售额将超过500亿美元。超过85%的销售额与其汽车业务相关。</blockquote></p><p> In 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.</p><p><blockquote>到2035年，如果电动汽车占所有新车销量的95%，并且特斯拉拥有与苹果今天相同的16%市场份额（显着超过大众或丰田），那么它将生产2200万辆汽车和轻型卡车，并产生超过1万亿美元的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> This year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).</p><p><blockquote>今年，分析师预计特斯拉将产生近70亿美元的调整后净利润（其中包括监管信贷推动的约12亿美元利润）。</blockquote></p><p> If Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉能够像苹果今天一样产生24%的净利润率（记住大众为5%，丰田为7%），那么它将在2035年产生约2500亿美元的收益。</blockquote></p><p> As Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉汽车从零增长到100万辆，它在Freemont、Shanghai和很快的Austin建立了生产设施；再次在内华达州、布法罗、德国和奥斯汀建立电池生产超级工厂；以及位于密歇根州、安大略省、上海的其他制造和模具工厂，另外两个位于加利福尼亚州，另外三个位于德国。</blockquote></p><p> To finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.</p><p><blockquote>为了为此次扩张提供资金，特斯拉稀释后的股份从2009年的3500万股增加到2015年的6.41亿股，再到如今的超过11亿股。当然，其中一些作为薪酬给了公司的关键高管，但在很大程度上，这次股票发行有助于为公司迄今为止的惊人增长提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> And if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉打算每年生产超过2000万辆汽车（今年约为100万辆），这将需要更多的资金。但鉴于其强劲的股价和内部现金流产生，我们假设特斯拉的新股发行速度将大幅放缓，至每年仅1.5%的新股发行速度。按照这个速度，到2035年他们将“只有”14亿股。</blockquote></p><p> And in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.</p><p><blockquote>那一年，生产了2200万辆汽车，平均售价为46,000美元（这也是我们的猜测），净利润率为24%，这2500亿美元的收益相当于每股178美元。</blockquote></p><p> Given Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于特斯拉在这种最大化其市场份额的情况下占据主导地位，唯一的负面影响是它将不再是一个长期的故事，而是一个更加暴露于汽车制造周期性的故事。因此，到那时其巨额收入和收入的增长自然会慢得多。但是，为了这次练习，让我们再次假设特斯拉仍然会找到一种方法，在2500亿美元的数字上继续实现10%的每股收益持续增长。</blockquote></p><p> And despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管经济放缓，我们也假设投资者愿意为现在庞大且周期性的业务支付超过20的市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> On a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.</p><p><blockquote>市盈率为22.5，市值为5.6万亿美元，股价为4000美元。</blockquote></p><p> These are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.</p><p><blockquote>这些都是很大的数字。尽管我们从更乐观的特斯拉多头那里听到了什么，但我们也假设今天的股东只希望从现在到2035年每年赚取10%的利润。</blockquote></p><p> If we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们将4,000美元折价10%回到今天，股票价值1,050美元。</blockquote></p><p> That is pretty close to where we are right now.</p><p><blockquote>这与我们现在的位置非常接近。</blockquote></p><p> So all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.</p><p><blockquote>因此，要使1,050美元成为今天的公平股价，上述所有这些都需要发生。</blockquote></p><p> Doubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.</p><p><blockquote>诚然，像我们一样，怀疑者会认为执行风险是巨大的，这些市场份额（尤其是利润率）可能是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Yet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管我们实际上不能忽视上述手机和汽车行业之间的差异，但信徒们——他们可能确实是对的——确实需要看到苹果式的行业动态、市场份额和利润率，这一切才有意义。</blockquote></p><p> It is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要考虑到，为了使股价在当前水平上有更大的上涨空间，特斯拉实际上必须超越苹果所取得的一切成就。</blockquote></p><p> Whether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.</p><p><blockquote>无论是牛市还是熊市，毫无疑问，马斯克迄今为止所取得的成就简直令人难以置信。五年前，很少有人会想到赫兹会为其汽车租赁车队单次订购10万辆特斯拉，或者特斯拉会在一年内生产和销售100万辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> He will continue to do incredible things.&nbsp; He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.</p><p><blockquote>他将继续做不可思议的事情。他改变了世界，也改变了竞争对手的心态。这些都不是问题。他的股价打折的未来是我们今天要问的问题。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-tesla-is-to-become-the-apple-of-car-makers-this-is-what-it-means-for-the-stock-price-and-the-business-11635513589?mod=home-page\">Market watch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-tesla-is-to-become-the-apple-of-car-makers-this-is-what-it-means-for-the-stock-price-and-the-business-11635513589?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2179471352","content_text":"Fans and shareholders of Tesla are making stronger and louder arguments about the future of their favorite company. In them, they draw analogies to one of the most successful brands and businesses in the history of capitalism. They suggest that automaking may go the way of handset manufacturing and that – for TeslaTSLA,+3.43%– there is a strong resemblance to the AppleAAPL,-1.82%vs. Nokia/Blackberry/Ericsson/Motorola dynamic.\nFor those that don’t know, in the early 2000s it was unimaginable that these legacy mobile phone manufacturers could disappear. In 2006, Research in Motion (RIM), the company making BlackBerrys, lost a patent suit against NTP and a U.S. District Court judge slapped an injunction on sales. The Defense Department stepped in, claiming that a Blackberry injunction was a threat to national security. Meanwhile, industry leader Nokia held a 40% market share and by the end of 2007 sported a $230 billion market cap.\nBut something else happened in 2007.\nSteve Jobs introduced the iPhone.\nAnd that changed the game for Nokia, Blackberry and the entire industry, forever.\nCoincidentally, Jobs introduced that iPhone seven months after Tesla introduced the Roadster at the San Francisco International Auto Show. Fast forward to 2021, and the bulls are suggesting that Apple’s overwhelming success in handset manufacturing can be mirrored in automobile manufacturing by Elon Musk’s Tesla.\nFor this to happen, let’s first assume that within 15 years buyers will demand a broadly similar “form factor” for any vehicle. Today, there are 250 brands of cars sold to fit all appetites and budgets, and perhaps over 1,000 trims. Meanwhile, thanks to the iPhone, handset hardware has gone from a myriad of styles, sizes and forms to basically one.\nSimilarly, let’s imagine that the production and value of automobiles and light trucks will become less about the style or performance that is demanded and instead mostly about the software inside the vehicle.\nFinally (and this is a huge debate, but) let’s presuppose that Tesla will have better software – most importantly better autonomous driving capability – than any other vendor or manufacturer, whether in Silicon Valley, Detroit, Wolfsburg or elsewhere.\nIn other words, let’s assume that Tesla is going to become the Apple of automakers.\nTo do this, we need to ignore that Apple is not just a handset manufacturer. In the first three quarters this year, it reported over $150 billion of iPhone sales, which represented 55% of total sales. It also reported sales from the “Services” segment, which included sales from advertising, digital content, AppleCare and other lines. If we assume all that revenue was driven by the iPhone (even though not all was), then we get the iPhone representing about 65%-70% of Apple’s sales.\nThis implies Apple has a substantial business (about $110 billion this year) selling Macs, iPads, wearables and accessories too. So in our “Tesla is Apple” analogy, we need to assume that Tesla will make similar extensions into new products.\nWe also need to ignore that most of the profit for Apple in handsets comes from mobile advertising and app sales, much of which Apple reports in that services segment noted above. Again, to stay in our framework, we also need to believe that Tesla would generate something similar via its over-the-air updates or its own app store.\nMaking all these assumptions, then future margins in “automaking” – for at least one manufacturer – could theoretically start trending up toward the margins generated today by Apple.\nSo in terms of handset market share, people around the world are going to buy approximately 1.4 billion handsets this year, and the average selling price will be about $320. Apple has about 16% of the global market, and will sell about 225 million iPhones.\nJust guessing here, but if these iPhones are sold at an average price of $890, then the average price of all the other phones sold in the world needs to be about $125 for the math to make sense. And because Apple can sell its iPhone at such a huge premium and produce remarkable revenues from advertising and app store sales, it generates a whopping 24% earnings margin.\nIn comparison, VolkswagenVOW3,-0.49%VWAPY,-2.43%,which started operations in 1938, has worked its way up to a global market share of 12.0% and generates net income margins of 5.0%.\nToyota7203,+0.33%TM,+0.05%,which also started operations in 1938, also has a global market share of 12.0% and generates even better net income margins of approximately 7.0%.\nNokia, for what it is worth, generated 14% net margins before the iPhone changed the game.  In other words, even before Apple showed up, handset manufacturing was over twice as profitable for market leaders as making cars.\nAnyway, folks around the world will buy about 75 million new cars this year, and at an average price of $30,000 (ballpark) this works out to over $2.2 trillion in sales. This is about five times larger than the handset market, which will come in at about $450 million. Toyota and Volkswagen are the largest – and best in class – scale automobile manufacturers in the world. Other groups, including FordF,+1.30%,Stellantis (FCA/Peugeot)STLA,-0.50%,DaimlerDAI,+2.25%,General MotorsGM,+0.35%,Honda7267,-0.53%HMC,-0.40%,BMWBMW,-0.11%and many others also have significant share.\nThis year, Tesla will sell about a million cars, representing a global market share of 1.3%.\nAnd dare I say that each of Tesla’s competitors will be loath to surrender more market share, thus the huge amount of R&D and capital spending they will devote to the upcoming transition to electric vehicles (EVs). On the CAPEX metric alone, we can see that these competitors will actually spend more next year than Tesla.\nA lot more.\nALBERT BRIDGE CAPITAL\nBut still, let’s assume all the legacy automakers fail to maintain share. Let’s also envision that most of the profits in the industry will eventually go to Tesla (as they have in handsets to Apple).\nAs a baseline, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate over $50 billion in sales this year. Over 85% of these sales are related to its automotive business.\nIn 2035, if EVs represents 95% of all new cars sold, and Tesla has the same 16% market share as Apple does today (significantly eclipsing that of VW or Toyota), it will be producing 22 million cars and light trucks, and generating sales of over $1 trillion.\nThis year, analysts anticipate that Tesla will generate nearly $7 billion in adjusted net income (which will include approximately $1.2 billion in profits driven by regulatory credits).\nIf Tesla were able to generate the same 24% net earnings margin as Apple does today (remember VW is at 5% and Toyota at 7%), then it would produce about $250 billion of earnings in 2035.\nAs Tesla has grown from zero to one million cars, it has built production facilities in Freemont, Shanghai and soon Austin; battery-producing gigafactories in Nevada, Buffalo, Germany and Austin again; and other manufacturing and tooling facilities in Michigan, Ontario, Shanghai, two more in California and three more in Germany.\nTo finance this expansion, Tesla went from 35 million diluted shares in 2009 to 641 million in 2015 to over 1.1 billion today. Of course some of these went to key executives in the firm as compensation, but for the most part, this share issuance helped to finance the firm’s stunning growth to date.\nAnd if Tesla is going to build over 20 million units a year (up from about 1 million this year), this will require a lot more capital. But given its strong share price and internal cash flow generation, let’s assume that the rate of new share issuance at Tesla will slow dramatically, to just 1.5% new shares per year. At this rate, they would have “only” 1.4 billion shares in 2035.\nAnd in that year, on production of 22 million vehicles at an average selling price of $46,000 (again, our guess) and doing 24% net earnings margins, this $250 billion of earnings would work out to about $178 per share.\nGiven Tesla’s domination in this scenario where it maxes out its market share, the only negative is that it would no longer be a secular story, but one more exposed to the cyclical nature of automaking. So its huge amount of revenue and income would naturally be growing much more slowly by then. But, again for the sake of this exercise, let’s assume that Tesla will still find a way to continue to generate a consistent 10% EPS growth on that $250 billion number.\nAnd despite this slowing, let’s also assume that investors will want to pay a P/E ratio of over 20 for a now huge and cyclical business.\nOn a P/E of 22.5, that would work out to a market cap of $5.6 trillion, and a share price of $4,000.\nThese are big numbers. And despite what we hear from the more optimistic of the Tesla bulls, let’s also assume that today’s shareholders only hope to make 10% per year between now and 2035.\nIf we discount that $4,000 by 10% back to today, the shares are worth $1,050.\nThat is pretty close to where we are right now.\nSo all that above is what needs to happen for $1,050 to be a fair share price today.\nDoubters, admittedly like us, will suggest that the execution risk is tremendous, and these market shares (and particularly the margins) may be impossible.\nYet, despite the fact that we actually can’t ignore the differences between the mobile phone and automobile industries noted above, the believers – who may indeed be right – will literally need to see Apple-esque industry dynamics, market shares and earnings margins for this all to make sense.\nIt is also important to consider that for there to be even more upside in the shares from current levels, Tesla will actually have to exceed everything that Apple has accomplished.\nWhether a bull or a bear, there is no doubting that what Musk has achieved thus far has been nothing short of incredible. Five years ago, few would have thought it even possible that Hertz would order 100,000 Teslas in a single order for its car rental fleet, or that Tesla would produce and sell a million cars in a single year.\nHe will continue to do incredible things.  He has changed the world and the mindset of his competitors. None of that is in question. The future that his share price is discounting is the question we are asking today.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":873707971,"gmtCreate":1636984341559,"gmtModify":1636984341559,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873707971","repostId":"2183046479","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4569,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844177456,"gmtCreate":1636414386828,"gmtModify":1636414386955,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"has he sold","listText":"has he sold","text":"has he sold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844177456","repostId":"2181773705","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2805,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":844174672,"gmtCreate":1636414346715,"gmtModify":1636414346854,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice&nbsp;","listText":"nice&nbsp;","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/844174672","repostId":"2182772820","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2970,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842085350,"gmtCreate":1636120838897,"gmtModify":1636120838994,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"ok","listText":"ok","text":"ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842085350","repostId":"1156660858","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156660858","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1636113788,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156660858?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 20:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156660858","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Futures tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit a record high on Friday, boosted by a batch of s","content":"<p>Futures tracking the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit a record high on Friday, boosted by a batch of strong earnings reports and Pfizer, while investors looked to monthly employment data for clues on the pace of economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>受一批强劲财报和辉瑞的提振，跟踪标普500和纳斯达克指数的期货周五创下历史新高，而投资者则从月度就业数据中寻找经济增长步伐的线索。</blockquote></p><p> At 08:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 54 points, or 0.15%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 10.75 points, or 0.23%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 23.75 points, or 0.15%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午08:00，道指e-mini上涨54点，涨幅0.15%，标普500 e-mini上涨10.75点，涨幅0.23%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨23.75点，涨幅0.15%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e1332bf1b10c768776f84a7da4d481e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Travel stocks rose following the news, with American Airline , United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, cruise operators Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise rising between 2% and 4%.</p><p><blockquote>消息传出后，旅游股上涨，美国航空、联合航空、达美航空、邮轮运营商嘉年华公司和挪威邮轮上涨2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in October while the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, the Labor Department reported Friday.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 531,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 450,000. The unemployment rate had been expected to edge down to 4.7%.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五报告称，10月份美国经济新增就业岗位超出预期，失业率降至4.6%。当月非农就业人数增加53.1万人，而道琼斯估计为45万人。失业率预计将小幅下降至4.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on Friday on the social policy and climate-change bill and a bipartisan infrastructure bill.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美国众议院预计将于周五就社会政策和气候变化法案以及两党基础设施法案进行投票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Pfizer(PFE)</b> – The drug maker's shares surged 10.4% in premarket trading after a study showed that its experimental Covid-19 antiviral pill reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by nearly 90%. Pfizer said it will ask regulators to approve the pill as soon as possible.</p><p><blockquote><b>辉瑞(PFE)</b>-一项研究显示，该制药商的实验性Covid-19抗病毒药物可将住院和死亡风险降低近90%，该制药商的股价在盘前交易中飙升10.4%。辉瑞表示，将要求监管机构尽快批准该药物。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DraftKings(DKNG)</b> – The sports betting company’s stock slid 10% in the premarket after it reported a wider-than-expected loss and revenue that fell short of Street forecasts. DraftKings did raise the midpoint of its fiscal 2021 revenue guidance and said it expected a strong 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>DraftKings(DKNG)</b>–这家体育博彩公司公布亏损超出预期且收入低于华尔街预测，该公司股价在盘前下跌10%。DraftKings确实提高了2021财年收入指引的中点，并表示预计2022财年将表现强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Nvidia(NVDA)&nbsp;</b>–&nbsp;Nvidia shares rose&nbsp;3% in premarket trading Friday&nbsp;after a 12% rise yesterday.Well Fargo Securities analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated an Overweight rating on Nvidia and bumped up the price target from $245 to $320.</p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达(NVDA)</b>-英伟达股价继昨天上涨12%后，周五盘前交易中上涨3%。富国证券分析师Aaron Rakers重申了对英伟达的跑赢大盘评级，并将目标价从245美元上调至320美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Peloton(PTON)</b> – Peloton tumbled 33% in the premarket after the fitness equipment maker slashed its full-year sales forecast by $1 billion, amid slowing demand for bikes and treadmills. Peloton also reported a quarterly loss of $1.21 per share, wider than the $1.07 loss expected by analysts, and revenue fell short of estimates as well.</p><p><blockquote><b>Peloton(PTON)</b>-由于自行车和跑步机需求放缓，健身器材制造商Peloton将全年销售额预测下调了10亿美元，盘前股价暴跌33%。Peloton还报告季度每股亏损1.21美元，高于分析师预期的1.07美元，营收也低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expedia(EXPE)</b> – Expedia earned an adjusted $3.53 per share for its latest quarter, well above the $1.65 consensus estimate. Revenue was also higher than expected, with the travel services company benefiting from the surge in travel demand. Expedia soared 13.7% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>Expedia(EXPE)</b>-Expedia最近一个季度调整后每股收益为3.53美元，远高于市场普遍预期的1.65美元。收入也高于预期，这家旅游服务公司受益于旅行需求的激增。Expedia在盘前交易中飙升13.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Airbnb(ABNB)</b> – Airbnb rallied 5.9% in the premarket as the travel-demand surge lifted sales and earnings beyond Wall Street forecasts. Airbnb earned $1.22 per share for its latest quarter, beating the $0.75 consensus estimate, with sales coming in at a record high. The company also said it expects a strong holiday season.</p><p><blockquote><b>爱彼迎(ABNB)</b>-爱彼迎盘前上涨5.9%，因旅游需求激增推动销售额和盈利超出华尔街预期。爱彼迎最近一个季度每股收益1.22美元，超过市场普遍预期的0.75美元，销售额创历史新高。该公司还表示，预计假期将会很强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Uber Technologies(UBER) </b>– Uber reported its first profitable quarter on an adjusted basis, thanks to upbeat performances by its ride-sharing and food delivery services. It did post an overall loss due to the drop in value of its stake in China ride-hailing company&nbsp;Didi(DIDI). Uber rose 2.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>优步科技(UBER)</b>-由于拼车和送餐服务的乐观表现，优步报告了调整后的第一个盈利季度。由于其在中国网约车公司滴滴（DIDI）的股份价值下跌，该公司确实出现了整体亏损。Uber在盘前交易中上涨2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pinterest(PINS)</b> – Pinterest came in 5 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 28 cents per share, and the image-sharing site operator’s revenue also topped analyst forecasts. It is also predicting an upbeat current quarter as the online retailer spends more on holiday season ads. Pinterest jumped 3.8% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>Pinterest(PINS)</b>-Pinterest调整后季度利润为每股28美分，比预期高出5美分，这家图像共享网站运营商的收入也超出了分析师的预期。它还预测，随着这家在线零售商在假日广告上的支出增加，本季度将会乐观。Pinterest在盘前股价上涨3.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Square(SQ)</b> -Square matched estimates with quarterly earnings of 37 cents per share, while the mobile payments company’s revenue missed forecasts. Square did see a nearly 60% rise in profit from a year earlier, thanks in large part to a surge in bitcoin transactions, but the stock dropped 3.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>平方(SQ)</b>-Square的季度收益为每股37美分，符合预期，而这家移动支付公司的收入未达到预期。Square的利润确实较上年同期增长了近60%，这在很大程度上要归功于比特币交易的激增，但该股在盘前交易中下跌了3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Canopy Growth(CGC)</b> – The Canadian cannabis producer lost 3 cents per share for its latest quarter, smaller than the 20-cent loss expected by analysts. However, revenue fell short of estimates and the company flagged slower-than-expected revenue growth for the second half of fiscal 2022. The stock fell 2.7% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>冠层生长(CGC)</b>-这家加拿大大麻生产商最近一个季度每股亏损3美分，小于分析师预期的20美分亏损。然而，收入低于预期，该公司表示2022财年下半年的收入增长低于预期。该股盘前下跌2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shake Shack(SHAK)</b> – Shake Shack reported a quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, 1 cent less than Wall Street had anticipated, but the restaurant chain’s sales missed analyst forecasts. Despite the revenue miss, Shake Shack rallied 7.6% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>Shake Shack(SHAK)</b>-Shake Shack公布季度每股亏损5美分，比华尔街预期少1美分，但该连锁餐厅的销售额未达到分析师预期。尽管营收未达预期，Shake Shack盘前仍上涨7.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Canada Goose(GOOS)</b> – The outerwear maker reported an unexpected profit for its latest quarter along with better-than-expected revenue, and also raised its full-year forecast. Canada Goose also said it’s seeing an indication of a strong winter season, and shares jumped 7.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>加拿大鹅(GOOS)</b>-这家外套制造商公布了最近一个季度的意外利润以及好于预期的收入，并上调了全年预期。Canada Goose还表示，它看到了冬季强劲的迹象，股价在盘前上涨了7.4%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Live Nation Entertainment(LYV) </b>– Live Nation shares rallied 5.4% in premarket action after the event promoter returned to profit amid a sales surge as live events returned. Results exceeded analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote><b>现场国家娱乐(LYV)</b>-Live Nation股价在盘前上涨5.4%，此前随着现场活动回归，销售额激增，活动主办方恢复盈利。结果超出了分析师的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lions Gate Entertainment(LGF)</b> – The movie and tv studio is considering a sale or spin-off of its Starz premium cable channel, saying it sees the potential to unlock significant shareholder value. The stock surged 15.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>狮门娱乐(LGF)</b>-该电影和电视工作室正在考虑出售或分拆其Starz付费有线频道，称其看到了释放巨大股东价值的潜力。该股盘前飙升15.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-05 20:03</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Futures tracking the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit a record high on Friday, boosted by a batch of strong earnings reports and Pfizer, while investors looked to monthly employment data for clues on the pace of economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>受一批强劲财报和辉瑞的提振，跟踪标普500和纳斯达克指数的期货周五创下历史新高，而投资者则从月度就业数据中寻找经济增长步伐的线索。</blockquote></p><p> At 08:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 54 points, or 0.15%, S&amp;P 500 e-minis were up 10.75 points, or 0.23%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 23.75 points, or 0.15%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午08:00，道指e-mini上涨54点，涨幅0.15%，标普500 e-mini上涨10.75点，涨幅0.23%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨23.75点，涨幅0.15%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1e1332bf1b10c768776f84a7da4d481e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Travel stocks rose following the news, with American Airline , United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, cruise operators Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise rising between 2% and 4%.</p><p><blockquote>消息传出后，旅游股上涨，美国航空、联合航空、达美航空、邮轮运营商嘉年华公司和挪威邮轮上涨2%至4%。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in October while the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, the Labor Department reported Friday.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 531,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 450,000. The unemployment rate had been expected to edge down to 4.7%.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五报告称，10月份美国经济新增就业岗位超出预期，失业率降至4.6%。当月非农就业人数增加53.1万人，而道琼斯估计为45万人。失业率预计将小幅下降至4.7%。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on Friday on the social policy and climate-change bill and a bipartisan infrastructure bill.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美国众议院预计将于周五就社会政策和气候变化法案以及两党基础设施法案进行投票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Pfizer(PFE)</b> – The drug maker's shares surged 10.4% in premarket trading after a study showed that its experimental Covid-19 antiviral pill reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by nearly 90%. Pfizer said it will ask regulators to approve the pill as soon as possible.</p><p><blockquote><b>辉瑞(PFE)</b>-一项研究显示，该制药商的实验性Covid-19抗病毒药物可将住院和死亡风险降低近90%，该制药商的股价在盘前交易中飙升10.4%。辉瑞表示，将要求监管机构尽快批准该药物。</blockquote></p><p> <b>DraftKings(DKNG)</b> – The sports betting company’s stock slid 10% in the premarket after it reported a wider-than-expected loss and revenue that fell short of Street forecasts. DraftKings did raise the midpoint of its fiscal 2021 revenue guidance and said it expected a strong 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>DraftKings(DKNG)</b>–这家体育博彩公司公布亏损超出预期且收入低于华尔街预测，该公司股价在盘前下跌10%。DraftKings确实提高了2021财年收入指引的中点，并表示预计2022财年将表现强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Nvidia(NVDA)&nbsp;</b>–&nbsp;Nvidia shares rose&nbsp;3% in premarket trading Friday&nbsp;after a 12% rise yesterday.Well Fargo Securities analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated an Overweight rating on Nvidia and bumped up the price target from $245 to $320.</p><p><blockquote><b>英伟达(NVDA)</b>-英伟达股价继昨天上涨12%后，周五盘前交易中上涨3%。富国证券分析师Aaron Rakers重申了对英伟达的跑赢大盘评级，并将目标价从245美元上调至320美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Peloton(PTON)</b> – Peloton tumbled 33% in the premarket after the fitness equipment maker slashed its full-year sales forecast by $1 billion, amid slowing demand for bikes and treadmills. Peloton also reported a quarterly loss of $1.21 per share, wider than the $1.07 loss expected by analysts, and revenue fell short of estimates as well.</p><p><blockquote><b>Peloton(PTON)</b>-由于自行车和跑步机需求放缓，健身器材制造商Peloton将全年销售额预测下调了10亿美元，盘前股价暴跌33%。Peloton还报告季度每股亏损1.21美元，高于分析师预期的1.07美元，营收也低于预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expedia(EXPE)</b> – Expedia earned an adjusted $3.53 per share for its latest quarter, well above the $1.65 consensus estimate. Revenue was also higher than expected, with the travel services company benefiting from the surge in travel demand. Expedia soared 13.7% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>Expedia(EXPE)</b>-Expedia最近一个季度调整后每股收益为3.53美元，远高于市场普遍预期的1.65美元。收入也高于预期，这家旅游服务公司受益于旅行需求的激增。Expedia在盘前交易中飙升13.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Airbnb(ABNB)</b> – Airbnb rallied 5.9% in the premarket as the travel-demand surge lifted sales and earnings beyond Wall Street forecasts. Airbnb earned $1.22 per share for its latest quarter, beating the $0.75 consensus estimate, with sales coming in at a record high. The company also said it expects a strong holiday season.</p><p><blockquote><b>爱彼迎(ABNB)</b>-爱彼迎盘前上涨5.9%，因旅游需求激增推动销售额和盈利超出华尔街预期。爱彼迎最近一个季度每股收益1.22美元，超过市场普遍预期的0.75美元，销售额创历史新高。该公司还表示，预计假期将会很强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Uber Technologies(UBER) </b>– Uber reported its first profitable quarter on an adjusted basis, thanks to upbeat performances by its ride-sharing and food delivery services. It did post an overall loss due to the drop in value of its stake in China ride-hailing company&nbsp;Didi(DIDI). Uber rose 2.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>优步科技(UBER)</b>-由于拼车和送餐服务的乐观表现，优步报告了调整后的第一个盈利季度。由于其在中国网约车公司滴滴（DIDI）的股份价值下跌，该公司确实出现了整体亏损。Uber在盘前交易中上涨2.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pinterest(PINS)</b> – Pinterest came in 5 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 28 cents per share, and the image-sharing site operator’s revenue also topped analyst forecasts. It is also predicting an upbeat current quarter as the online retailer spends more on holiday season ads. Pinterest jumped 3.8% in premarket action.</p><p><blockquote><b>Pinterest(PINS)</b>-Pinterest调整后季度利润为每股28美分，比预期高出5美分，这家图像共享网站运营商的收入也超出了分析师的预期。它还预测，随着这家在线零售商在假日广告上的支出增加，本季度将会乐观。Pinterest在盘前股价上涨3.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Square(SQ)</b> -Square matched estimates with quarterly earnings of 37 cents per share, while the mobile payments company’s revenue missed forecasts. Square did see a nearly 60% rise in profit from a year earlier, thanks in large part to a surge in bitcoin transactions, but the stock dropped 3.5% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><b>平方(SQ)</b>-Square的季度收益为每股37美分，符合预期，而这家移动支付公司的收入未达到预期。Square的利润确实较上年同期增长了近60%，这在很大程度上要归功于比特币交易的激增，但该股在盘前交易中下跌了3.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Canopy Growth(CGC)</b> – The Canadian cannabis producer lost 3 cents per share for its latest quarter, smaller than the 20-cent loss expected by analysts. However, revenue fell short of estimates and the company flagged slower-than-expected revenue growth for the second half of fiscal 2022. The stock fell 2.7% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>冠层生长(CGC)</b>-这家加拿大大麻生产商最近一个季度每股亏损3美分，小于分析师预期的20美分亏损。然而，收入低于预期，该公司表示2022财年下半年的收入增长低于预期。该股盘前下跌2.7%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Shake Shack(SHAK)</b> – Shake Shack reported a quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, 1 cent less than Wall Street had anticipated, but the restaurant chain’s sales missed analyst forecasts. Despite the revenue miss, Shake Shack rallied 7.6% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>Shake Shack(SHAK)</b>-Shake Shack公布季度每股亏损5美分，比华尔街预期少1美分，但该连锁餐厅的销售额未达到分析师预期。尽管营收未达预期，Shake Shack盘前仍上涨7.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Canada Goose(GOOS)</b> – The outerwear maker reported an unexpected profit for its latest quarter along with better-than-expected revenue, and also raised its full-year forecast. Canada Goose also said it’s seeing an indication of a strong winter season, and shares jumped 7.4% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>加拿大鹅(GOOS)</b>-这家外套制造商公布了最近一个季度的意外利润以及好于预期的收入，并上调了全年预期。Canada Goose还表示，它看到了冬季强劲的迹象，股价在盘前上涨了7.4%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Live Nation Entertainment(LYV) </b>– Live Nation shares rallied 5.4% in premarket action after the event promoter returned to profit amid a sales surge as live events returned. Results exceeded analyst estimates.</p><p><blockquote><b>现场国家娱乐(LYV)</b>-Live Nation股价在盘前上涨5.4%，此前随着现场活动回归，销售额激增，活动主办方恢复盈利。结果超出了分析师的预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lions Gate Entertainment(LGF)</b> – The movie and tv studio is considering a sale or spin-off of its Starz premium cable channel, saying it sees the potential to unlock significant shareholder value. The stock surged 15.1% in the premarket.</p><p><blockquote><b>狮门娱乐(LGF)</b>-该电影和电视工作室正在考虑出售或分拆其Starz付费有线频道，称其看到了释放巨大股东价值的潜力。该股盘前飙升15.1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LYV":"Live Nation Entertainment","SHAK":"Shake Shack Inc",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","PTON":"Peloton Interactive, Inc.","PFE":"辉瑞","GOOS":"加拿大鹅","CGC":"Canopy Growth Corporation",".DJI":"道琼斯","EXPE":"Expedia","PINS":"Pinterest, Inc.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UBER":"优步","DKNG":"DraftKings Inc.","NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156660858","content_text":"Futures tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes hit a record high on Friday, boosted by a batch of strong earnings reports and Pfizer, while investors looked to monthly employment data for clues on the pace of economic growth.\nAt 08:00 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were up 54 points, or 0.15%, S&P 500 e-minis were up 10.75 points, or 0.23%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis were up 23.75 points, or 0.15%.\n\nTravel stocks rose following the news, with American Airline , United Airlines, Delta Air Lines, cruise operators Carnival Corp and Norwegian Cruise rising between 2% and 4%.\nThe U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in October while the unemployment rate fell to 4.6%, the Labor Department reported Friday.Nonfarm payrolls increased by 531,000 for the month, compared to the Dow Jones estimate of 450,000. The unemployment rate had been expected to edge down to 4.7%.\nMeanwhile, the U.S. House of Representatives is expected to vote on Friday on the social policy and climate-change bill and a bipartisan infrastructure bill.\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket:\nPfizer(PFE) – The drug maker's shares surged 10.4% in premarket trading after a study showed that its experimental Covid-19 antiviral pill reduced the risk of hospitalization and death by nearly 90%. Pfizer said it will ask regulators to approve the pill as soon as possible.\nDraftKings(DKNG) – The sports betting company’s stock slid 10% in the premarket after it reported a wider-than-expected loss and revenue that fell short of Street forecasts. DraftKings did raise the midpoint of its fiscal 2021 revenue guidance and said it expected a strong 2022.\nNvidia(NVDA) – Nvidia shares rose 3% in premarket trading Friday after a 12% rise yesterday.Well Fargo Securities analyst Aaron Rakers reiterated an Overweight rating on Nvidia and bumped up the price target from $245 to $320.\nPeloton(PTON) – Peloton tumbled 33% in the premarket after the fitness equipment maker slashed its full-year sales forecast by $1 billion, amid slowing demand for bikes and treadmills. Peloton also reported a quarterly loss of $1.21 per share, wider than the $1.07 loss expected by analysts, and revenue fell short of estimates as well.\nExpedia(EXPE) – Expedia earned an adjusted $3.53 per share for its latest quarter, well above the $1.65 consensus estimate. Revenue was also higher than expected, with the travel services company benefiting from the surge in travel demand. Expedia soared 13.7% in premarket trading.\nAirbnb(ABNB) – Airbnb rallied 5.9% in the premarket as the travel-demand surge lifted sales and earnings beyond Wall Street forecasts. Airbnb earned $1.22 per share for its latest quarter, beating the $0.75 consensus estimate, with sales coming in at a record high. The company also said it expects a strong holiday season.\nUber Technologies(UBER) – Uber reported its first profitable quarter on an adjusted basis, thanks to upbeat performances by its ride-sharing and food delivery services. It did post an overall loss due to the drop in value of its stake in China ride-hailing company Didi(DIDI). Uber rose 2.5% in premarket trading.\nPinterest(PINS) – Pinterest came in 5 cents above estimates with an adjusted quarterly profit of 28 cents per share, and the image-sharing site operator’s revenue also topped analyst forecasts. It is also predicting an upbeat current quarter as the online retailer spends more on holiday season ads. Pinterest jumped 3.8% in premarket action.\nSquare(SQ) -Square matched estimates with quarterly earnings of 37 cents per share, while the mobile payments company’s revenue missed forecasts. Square did see a nearly 60% rise in profit from a year earlier, thanks in large part to a surge in bitcoin transactions, but the stock dropped 3.5% in premarket trading.\nCanopy Growth(CGC) – The Canadian cannabis producer lost 3 cents per share for its latest quarter, smaller than the 20-cent loss expected by analysts. However, revenue fell short of estimates and the company flagged slower-than-expected revenue growth for the second half of fiscal 2022. The stock fell 2.7% in the premarket.\nShake Shack(SHAK) – Shake Shack reported a quarterly loss of 5 cents per share, 1 cent less than Wall Street had anticipated, but the restaurant chain’s sales missed analyst forecasts. Despite the revenue miss, Shake Shack rallied 7.6% in the premarket.\nCanada Goose(GOOS) – The outerwear maker reported an unexpected profit for its latest quarter along with better-than-expected revenue, and also raised its full-year forecast. Canada Goose also said it’s seeing an indication of a strong winter season, and shares jumped 7.4% in the premarket.\nLive Nation Entertainment(LYV) – Live Nation shares rallied 5.4% in premarket action after the event promoter returned to profit amid a sales surge as live events returned. Results exceeded analyst estimates.\nLions Gate Entertainment(LGF) – The movie and tv studio is considering a sale or spin-off of its Starz premium cable channel, saying it sees the potential to unlock significant shareholder value. The stock surged 15.1% in the premarket.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SHAK":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"LYV":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"PFE":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"GOOS":0.9,"UBER":0.9,"SQ":0.9,"PTON":0.9,"EXPE":0.9,"PINS":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DKNG":0.9,"CGC":0.9,"NQmain":0.9,"LGF":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841256918,"gmtCreate":1635917955611,"gmtModify":1635917955611,"author":{"id":"4094793078288150","authorId":"4094793078288150","name":"beanbun","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4094793078288150","idStr":"4094793078288150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841256918","repostId":"2180736486","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1133,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}