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xystarx
2022-01-11
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Is Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将升至1,400美元还是67美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote>
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Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将升至1,400美元还是67美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199490797","media":"Barrons","summary":"Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting?","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting? Ford Motor, General Motors, Tesla, and Rivian Automotive each had price swings of more than 10% during the first trading week of the year. This, after some heady gains for the group last year.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>当汽车股如此令人兴奋时，谁还需要模仿加密货币？福特汽车、通用汽车、特斯拉和Rivian汽车在今年第一个交易周的价格波动均超过10%。在此之前，该集团去年取得了一些令人兴奋的收益。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Predicting performance from here won’t be easy. I recently spoke with one analyst who says Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is headed to $1,400, and another who says $67. You know what they say: Sometimes you have to agree to disagree by a factor of 20.</p><p><blockquote>从这里预测性能并不容易。我最近与一位分析师交谈，他表示特斯拉股票（股票代码：TSLA）将达到1,400美元，另一位分析师则表示67美元。你知道他们说什么：有时你必须同意20倍的不同意见。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla made the first big move, jumping 13.5% on Monday after the company reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 308,600 vehicles, trouncing estimates and its own record. Next, Ford (F) gained 11.7% on Tuesday after it announced that it would raise production of its first electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, to 150,000 units a year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公布第四季度交付量为308,600辆汽车，超出预期和自己的记录，周一股价上涨13.5%。接下来，福特(F)周二上涨11.7%，此前该公司宣布将把其首款电动皮卡F-150 Lightning的产量提高至每年15万辆。</blockquote></p><p>By that point in the week, General Motors stock (GM) was already up 12% in anticipation of its Chevy Silverado electric pickup truck unveiling, planned for Wednesday at the Consumer Electronics Show. But on the day of the announcement, shares slipped. Maybe investors were disappointed in the delivery timing, or maybe it was because the broad market tanked on signs that interest rates could rise sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>到本周这个时候，通用汽车(GM)的股价已经上涨了12%，预计其雪佛兰索罗德电动皮卡将于周三在消费电子展上亮相。但在公告发布当天，股价下跌。也许投资者对交付时间感到失望，也可能是因为有迹象表明利率可能比预期更快上升，导致大盘暴跌。</blockquote></p><p>What the Ford and Chevy pickups have in common is that they will target workers as well as suburban preeners in unblemished Carhartt jackets. Early versions will be priced around $40,000 and $100,000.</p><p><blockquote>福特和雪佛兰皮卡的共同点是，它们的目标是工人以及穿着完美无瑕的卡哈特夹克的郊区装扮者。早期版本的售价将在4万美元和10万美元左右。</blockquote></p><p>The Chevy wins on electric specs—longer battery range and faster charging. But Ford wins on bringing its truck to market this spring. Chevy buyers will have to wait until spring 2023 for the cheaper truck and fall 2023 for the decked-out one. GM will also debut electric Chevy sport utility vehicles in 2023, including an Equinox that will start at $30,000.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛兰在电动规格上胜出——更长的电池续航里程和更快的充电速度。但福特凭借今年春天将其卡车推向市场而获胜。雪佛兰买家必须等到2023年春季才能购买更便宜的卡车，而要等到2023年秋季才能购买经过装饰的卡车。通用汽车还将于2023年推出电动雪佛兰运动型多功能车，其中包括起价为30,000美元的Equinox。</blockquote></p><p>Pickup trucks could be the key to America’s electric-vehicle uptake. Last year, EVs hit an estimated 4% of total U.S. sales, up from 2%. But Europe and China are well ahead, with penetration rates in the low teens. Americans have so far had few electric choices for the types of vehicles they like to buy. Last year, the Ford F-150 led U.S. new-vehicle sales, as always. The only surprise was that the Ram 1500 pickup pulled ahead of the Chevy Silverado 1500 to be No. 2.</p><p><blockquote>皮卡车可能是美国电动汽车普及的关键。去年，电动汽车估计占美国总销量的4%，高于2%。但欧洲和中国遥遥领先，普及率在十几岁左右。到目前为止，美国人对于他们喜欢购买的车辆类型几乎没有电动选择。去年，福特F-150一如既往地引领美国新车销量。唯一令人惊讶的是Ram 1500皮卡领先于雪佛兰Silverado 1500，排名第二。</blockquote></p><p>An electric Ram will take until 2024, according to owner Stellantis (STLA), a roll-up of American, Italian, and French brands. Start-up Rivian (RIVN) says it will ship electric pickups this year, but that stock slid 11% this past Wednesday after early backer Amazon.com (AMZN) said it’s putting in an order with Ram for delivery trucks. Tesla’s Cybertruck was expected last year, but has been delayed.</p><p><blockquote>据美国、意大利和法国品牌的Stellantis(STLA)称，电动公羊要到2024年才会问世。初创公司Rivian(RIVN)表示今年将生产电动皮卡，但在早期支持者亚马逊(AMZN)表示将向Ram订购送货卡车后，该股上周三下跌了11%。特斯拉的Cybertruck预计在去年推出，但一直被推迟。</blockquote></p><p>Pent-up vehicle demand, meanwhile, suggests that a boom is coming. Amid shortages last year, U.S. light-vehicle sales were an estimated 15.1 million units, versus closer to 17 million a year before the pandemic. Average transaction prices have soared 30% from prepandemic levels, and incentives as a percentage of prices are at record lows.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，被压抑的汽车需求表明繁荣即将到来。在去年短缺的情况下，美国轻型汽车销量估计为1510万辆，而疫情爆发前一年接近1700万辆。平均交易价格较大流行前水平飙升30%，激励措施占价格的百分比创历史新低。</blockquote></p><p>This year, expect unit sales to rise only modestly, but by next year, when showrooms are full and pricing has eased, units could jump to 18 million, Credit Suisse says. EV penetration in the U.S. will double again this year to 8%, and top 50% by 2030, it adds.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷表示，预计今年的销量只会小幅增长，但到明年，当展厅爆满且定价有所缓解时，销量可能会跃升至1800万辆。报告补充说，今年美国的电动汽车普及率将再次翻一番，达到8%，到2030年将超过50%。</blockquote></p><p>One risk for legacy car makers is that they will run to stand still—that they must ramp up EV units with low profit margins for now to offset coming losses in high-margin gasoline models.</p><p><blockquote>传统汽车制造商面临的一个风险是，他们将停滞不前——他们目前必须增加利润率较低的电动汽车产品，以抵消高利润汽油车型即将出现的亏损。</blockquote></p><p>On the other hand, car makers could shift capacity from gasoline vehicles to electric ones ahead of customers’ willingness to make the switch. That could leave gas vehicles with high prices and profit margins, creating a long, lucrative “farewell tour,” as Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas puts it.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，汽车制造商可以在客户愿意之前将产能从汽油车转移到电动汽车。正如摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯（Adam Jonas）所说，这可能会让燃气汽车拥有高昂的价格和利润率，从而创造一个漫长而有利可图的“告别之旅”。</blockquote></p><p>Valuations appear undemanding. Ford goes for 12 times projected earnings, despite doubling in price last year. GM sells for nine times.</p><p><blockquote>估值似乎并不高。尽管去年股价翻了一番，但福特的市盈率仍是预期市盈率的12倍。通用汽车的售价是九倍。</blockquote></p><p>The bull case on Tesla is that it will do big things in both cars and adjacent markets. Philippe Houchois, who covers the stock for Jefferies, sees 35% upside from recent levels, to $1,400. Tesla lags behind legacy rivals on things like build quality and finish, but those are solvable problems, he says. It leads on software, batteries, and autonomy, which are durable advantages. He sees Tesla using software to extend the usefulness and profit potential of vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>看好特斯拉的理由是，它将在汽车和邻近市场大有作为。杰富瑞(Jefferies)负责该股的Philippe Houchois预计，该股较近期水平上涨35%，至1,400美元。他说，特斯拉在制造质量和表面处理等方面落后于传统竞争对手，但这些都是可以解决的问题。它在软件、电池和自主性方面领先，这些都是持久的优势。他认为特斯拉正在使用软件来扩展车辆的实用性和利润潜力。</blockquote></p><p>Most versions of the Tesla bear case assume that the company will do well in cars, but not well enough to justify a market value above $1 trillion. For example, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman calls his price target of $295 “not ungenerous,” even though it implies a 70% stock plunge, because it values Tesla slightly ahead of world leader Toyota Motor (TM), despite producing a tenth as many cars for now.</p><p><blockquote>大多数版本的特斯拉熊市案例都假设该公司在汽车领域会表现良好，但还不足以证明市值超过1万亿美元是合理的。例如，摩根大通(J.P.Morgan)的Ryan Brinkman评级称，他295美元的目标价“并不吝啬”，尽管这意味着股价将暴跌70%，因为特斯拉的估值略高于世界领先者丰田汽车(TM)，尽管其产量仅为世界领先者丰田汽车(TM)的十分之一。目前的汽车数量。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Then there’s Gordon Johnson. He worked at large investment banks before starting GLJ Research, where he covers 20 stocks. He’s bullish on uranium stocks and bearish on cannabis, but all anyone wants to talk about, he says, is his $67 price target on Tesla. “I’ve gotten death threats,” he says. “Now I don’t even answer the phone when I have unknown calls.”</p><p><blockquote>然后是戈登·约翰逊。在创办GLJ Research之前，他曾在大型投资银行工作，研究20只股票。他看好铀股，看跌大麻，但他说，所有人都想谈论的是他对特斯拉67美元的目标价。“我收到了死亡威胁，”他说。“现在有不明评级，连电话都不接。”</blockquote></p><p>In Johnson’s view, there’s no reason to assume Tesla will do well in adjacent businesses. “You could take McDonald’s and say they’re going to start selling Nikes and chairs and pianos and add those valuations,” he says. In cars, he calculates that the stock price implies a production ramp-up that no car maker could achieve. “Selling cars is not selling iPhones or shirts,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>在Johnson看来，没有理由假设特斯拉在邻近业务上会做得很好。“你可以拿麦当劳来说，他们将开始销售耐克、椅子和钢琴，并增加这些估值，”他说。在汽车领域，他计算出股价意味着任何汽车制造商都无法实现的产量提升。“卖汽车不是卖iPhone或衬衫，”他说。</blockquote></p><p>If Tesla’s three-year stock gain of nearly 1,400% has shaken Johnson’s confidence, it doesn’t show. After walking me through his valuation model, he said he’s concerned that his price target might be too high.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉近1400%的三年股价涨幅动摇了Johnson的信心，但这并没有表现出来。在向我介绍了他的估值模型后，他说他担心他的价格目标可能太高。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将升至1,400美元还是67美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将升至1,400美元还是67美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-10 23:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting? Ford Motor, General Motors, Tesla, and Rivian Automotive each had price swings of more than 10% during the first trading week of the year. This, after some heady gains for the group last year.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>当汽车股如此令人兴奋时，谁还需要模仿加密货币？福特汽车、通用汽车、特斯拉和Rivian汽车在今年第一个交易周的价格波动均超过10%。在此之前，该集团去年取得了一些令人兴奋的收益。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Predicting performance from here won’t be easy. I recently spoke with one analyst who says Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is headed to $1,400, and another who says $67. You know what they say: Sometimes you have to agree to disagree by a factor of 20.</p><p><blockquote>从这里预测性能并不容易。我最近与一位分析师交谈，他表示特斯拉股票（股票代码：TSLA）将达到1,400美元，另一位分析师则表示67美元。你知道他们说什么：有时你必须同意20倍的不同意见。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla made the first big move, jumping 13.5% on Monday after the company reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 308,600 vehicles, trouncing estimates and its own record. Next, Ford (F) gained 11.7% on Tuesday after it announced that it would raise production of its first electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, to 150,000 units a year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公布第四季度交付量为308,600辆汽车，超出预期和自己的记录，周一股价上涨13.5%。接下来，福特(F)周二上涨11.7%，此前该公司宣布将把其首款电动皮卡F-150 Lightning的产量提高至每年15万辆。</blockquote></p><p>By that point in the week, General Motors stock (GM) was already up 12% in anticipation of its Chevy Silverado electric pickup truck unveiling, planned for Wednesday at the Consumer Electronics Show. But on the day of the announcement, shares slipped. Maybe investors were disappointed in the delivery timing, or maybe it was because the broad market tanked on signs that interest rates could rise sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>到本周这个时候，通用汽车(GM)的股价已经上涨了12%，预计其雪佛兰索罗德电动皮卡将于周三在消费电子展上亮相。但在公告发布当天，股价下跌。也许投资者对交付时间感到失望，也可能是因为有迹象表明利率可能比预期更快上升，导致大盘暴跌。</blockquote></p><p>What the Ford and Chevy pickups have in common is that they will target workers as well as suburban preeners in unblemished Carhartt jackets. Early versions will be priced around $40,000 and $100,000.</p><p><blockquote>福特和雪佛兰皮卡的共同点是，它们的目标是工人以及穿着完美无瑕的卡哈特夹克的郊区装扮者。早期版本的售价将在4万美元和10万美元左右。</blockquote></p><p>The Chevy wins on electric specs—longer battery range and faster charging. But Ford wins on bringing its truck to market this spring. Chevy buyers will have to wait until spring 2023 for the cheaper truck and fall 2023 for the decked-out one. GM will also debut electric Chevy sport utility vehicles in 2023, including an Equinox that will start at $30,000.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛兰在电动规格上胜出——更长的电池续航里程和更快的充电速度。但福特凭借今年春天将其卡车推向市场而获胜。雪佛兰买家必须等到2023年春季才能购买更便宜的卡车，而要等到2023年秋季才能购买经过装饰的卡车。通用汽车还将于2023年推出电动雪佛兰运动型多功能车，其中包括起价为30,000美元的Equinox。</blockquote></p><p>Pickup trucks could be the key to America’s electric-vehicle uptake. Last year, EVs hit an estimated 4% of total U.S. sales, up from 2%. But Europe and China are well ahead, with penetration rates in the low teens. Americans have so far had few electric choices for the types of vehicles they like to buy. Last year, the Ford F-150 led U.S. new-vehicle sales, as always. The only surprise was that the Ram 1500 pickup pulled ahead of the Chevy Silverado 1500 to be No. 2.</p><p><blockquote>皮卡车可能是美国电动汽车普及的关键。去年，电动汽车估计占美国总销量的4%，高于2%。但欧洲和中国遥遥领先，普及率在十几岁左右。到目前为止，美国人对于他们喜欢购买的车辆类型几乎没有电动选择。去年，福特F-150一如既往地引领美国新车销量。唯一令人惊讶的是Ram 1500皮卡领先于雪佛兰Silverado 1500，排名第二。</blockquote></p><p>An electric Ram will take until 2024, according to owner Stellantis (STLA), a roll-up of American, Italian, and French brands. Start-up Rivian (RIVN) says it will ship electric pickups this year, but that stock slid 11% this past Wednesday after early backer Amazon.com (AMZN) said it’s putting in an order with Ram for delivery trucks. Tesla’s Cybertruck was expected last year, but has been delayed.</p><p><blockquote>据美国、意大利和法国品牌的Stellantis(STLA)称，电动公羊要到2024年才会问世。初创公司Rivian(RIVN)表示今年将生产电动皮卡，但在早期支持者亚马逊(AMZN)表示将向Ram订购送货卡车后，该股上周三下跌了11%。特斯拉的Cybertruck预计在去年推出，但一直被推迟。</blockquote></p><p>Pent-up vehicle demand, meanwhile, suggests that a boom is coming. Amid shortages last year, U.S. light-vehicle sales were an estimated 15.1 million units, versus closer to 17 million a year before the pandemic. Average transaction prices have soared 30% from prepandemic levels, and incentives as a percentage of prices are at record lows.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，被压抑的汽车需求表明繁荣即将到来。在去年短缺的情况下，美国轻型汽车销量估计为1510万辆，而疫情爆发前一年接近1700万辆。平均交易价格较大流行前水平飙升30%，激励措施占价格的百分比创历史新低。</blockquote></p><p>This year, expect unit sales to rise only modestly, but by next year, when showrooms are full and pricing has eased, units could jump to 18 million, Credit Suisse says. EV penetration in the U.S. will double again this year to 8%, and top 50% by 2030, it adds.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷表示，预计今年的销量只会小幅增长，但到明年，当展厅爆满且定价有所缓解时，销量可能会跃升至1800万辆。报告补充说，今年美国的电动汽车普及率将再次翻一番，达到8%，到2030年将超过50%。</blockquote></p><p>One risk for legacy car makers is that they will run to stand still—that they must ramp up EV units with low profit margins for now to offset coming losses in high-margin gasoline models.</p><p><blockquote>传统汽车制造商面临的一个风险是，他们将停滞不前——他们目前必须增加利润率较低的电动汽车产品，以抵消高利润汽油车型即将出现的亏损。</blockquote></p><p>On the other hand, car makers could shift capacity from gasoline vehicles to electric ones ahead of customers’ willingness to make the switch. That could leave gas vehicles with high prices and profit margins, creating a long, lucrative “farewell tour,” as Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas puts it.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，汽车制造商可以在客户愿意之前将产能从汽油车转移到电动汽车。正如摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯（Adam Jonas）所说，这可能会让燃气汽车拥有高昂的价格和利润率，从而创造一个漫长而有利可图的“告别之旅”。</blockquote></p><p>Valuations appear undemanding. Ford goes for 12 times projected earnings, despite doubling in price last year. GM sells for nine times.</p><p><blockquote>估值似乎并不高。尽管去年股价翻了一番，但福特的市盈率仍是预期市盈率的12倍。通用汽车的售价是九倍。</blockquote></p><p>The bull case on Tesla is that it will do big things in both cars and adjacent markets. Philippe Houchois, who covers the stock for Jefferies, sees 35% upside from recent levels, to $1,400. Tesla lags behind legacy rivals on things like build quality and finish, but those are solvable problems, he says. It leads on software, batteries, and autonomy, which are durable advantages. He sees Tesla using software to extend the usefulness and profit potential of vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>看好特斯拉的理由是，它将在汽车和邻近市场大有作为。杰富瑞(Jefferies)负责该股的Philippe Houchois预计，该股较近期水平上涨35%，至1,400美元。他说，特斯拉在制造质量和表面处理等方面落后于传统竞争对手，但这些都是可以解决的问题。它在软件、电池和自主性方面领先，这些都是持久的优势。他认为特斯拉正在使用软件来扩展车辆的实用性和利润潜力。</blockquote></p><p>Most versions of the Tesla bear case assume that the company will do well in cars, but not well enough to justify a market value above $1 trillion. For example, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman calls his price target of $295 “not ungenerous,” even though it implies a 70% stock plunge, because it values Tesla slightly ahead of world leader Toyota Motor (TM), despite producing a tenth as many cars for now.</p><p><blockquote>大多数版本的特斯拉熊市案例都假设该公司在汽车领域会表现良好，但还不足以证明市值超过1万亿美元是合理的。例如，摩根大通(J.P.Morgan)的Ryan Brinkman评级称，他295美元的目标价“并不吝啬”，尽管这意味着股价将暴跌70%，因为特斯拉的估值略高于世界领先者丰田汽车(TM)，尽管其产量仅为世界领先者丰田汽车(TM)的十分之一。目前的汽车数量。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Then there’s Gordon Johnson. He worked at large investment banks before starting GLJ Research, where he covers 20 stocks. He’s bullish on uranium stocks and bearish on cannabis, but all anyone wants to talk about, he says, is his $67 price target on Tesla. “I’ve gotten death threats,” he says. “Now I don’t even answer the phone when I have unknown calls.”</p><p><blockquote>然后是戈登·约翰逊。在创办GLJ Research之前，他曾在大型投资银行工作，研究20只股票。他看好铀股，看跌大麻，但他说，所有人都想谈论的是他对特斯拉67美元的目标价。“我收到了死亡威胁，”他说。“现在有不明评级，连电话都不接。”</blockquote></p><p>In Johnson’s view, there’s no reason to assume Tesla will do well in adjacent businesses. “You could take McDonald’s and say they’re going to start selling Nikes and chairs and pianos and add those valuations,” he says. In cars, he calculates that the stock price implies a production ramp-up that no car maker could achieve. “Selling cars is not selling iPhones or shirts,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>在Johnson看来，没有理由假设特斯拉在邻近业务上会做得很好。“你可以拿麦当劳来说，他们将开始销售耐克、椅子和钢琴，并增加这些估值，”他说。在汽车领域，他计算出股价意味着任何汽车制造商都无法实现的产量提升。“卖汽车不是卖iPhone或衬衫，”他说。</blockquote></p><p>If Tesla’s three-year stock gain of nearly 1,400% has shaken Johnson’s confidence, it doesn’t show. After walking me through his valuation model, he said he’s concerned that his price target might be too high.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉近1400%的三年股价涨幅动摇了Johnson的信心，但这并没有表现出来。在向我介绍了他的估值模型后，他说他担心他的价格目标可能太高。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-ford-rivian-gm-stock-51641597012?mod=mw_quote_news\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-ford-rivian-gm-stock-51641597012?mod=mw_quote_news","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1199490797","content_text":"Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting? Ford Motor, General Motors, Tesla, and Rivian Automotive each had price swings of more than 10% during the first trading week of the year. This, after some heady gains for the group last year.Predicting performance from here won’t be easy. I recently spoke with one analyst who says Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is headed to $1,400, and another who says $67. You know what they say: Sometimes you have to agree to disagree by a factor of 20.Tesla made the first big move, jumping 13.5% on Monday after the company reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 308,600 vehicles, trouncing estimates and its own record. Next, Ford (F) gained 11.7% on Tuesday after it announced that it would raise production of its first electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, to 150,000 units a year.By that point in the week, General Motors stock (GM) was already up 12% in anticipation of its Chevy Silverado electric pickup truck unveiling, planned for Wednesday at the Consumer Electronics Show. But on the day of the announcement, shares slipped. Maybe investors were disappointed in the delivery timing, or maybe it was because the broad market tanked on signs that interest rates could rise sooner than expected.What the Ford and Chevy pickups have in common is that they will target workers as well as suburban preeners in unblemished Carhartt jackets. Early versions will be priced around $40,000 and $100,000.The Chevy wins on electric specs—longer battery range and faster charging. But Ford wins on bringing its truck to market this spring. Chevy buyers will have to wait until spring 2023 for the cheaper truck and fall 2023 for the decked-out one. GM will also debut electric Chevy sport utility vehicles in 2023, including an Equinox that will start at $30,000.Pickup trucks could be the key to America’s electric-vehicle uptake. Last year, EVs hit an estimated 4% of total U.S. sales, up from 2%. But Europe and China are well ahead, with penetration rates in the low teens. Americans have so far had few electric choices for the types of vehicles they like to buy. Last year, the Ford F-150 led U.S. new-vehicle sales, as always. The only surprise was that the Ram 1500 pickup pulled ahead of the Chevy Silverado 1500 to be No. 2.An electric Ram will take until 2024, according to owner Stellantis (STLA), a roll-up of American, Italian, and French brands. Start-up Rivian (RIVN) says it will ship electric pickups this year, but that stock slid 11% this past Wednesday after early backer Amazon.com (AMZN) said it’s putting in an order with Ram for delivery trucks. Tesla’s Cybertruck was expected last year, but has been delayed.Pent-up vehicle demand, meanwhile, suggests that a boom is coming. Amid shortages last year, U.S. light-vehicle sales were an estimated 15.1 million units, versus closer to 17 million a year before the pandemic. Average transaction prices have soared 30% from prepandemic levels, and incentives as a percentage of prices are at record lows.This year, expect unit sales to rise only modestly, but by next year, when showrooms are full and pricing has eased, units could jump to 18 million, Credit Suisse says. EV penetration in the U.S. will double again this year to 8%, and top 50% by 2030, it adds.One risk for legacy car makers is that they will run to stand still—that they must ramp up EV units with low profit margins for now to offset coming losses in high-margin gasoline models.On the other hand, car makers could shift capacity from gasoline vehicles to electric ones ahead of customers’ willingness to make the switch. That could leave gas vehicles with high prices and profit margins, creating a long, lucrative “farewell tour,” as Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas puts it.Valuations appear undemanding. Ford goes for 12 times projected earnings, despite doubling in price last year. GM sells for nine times.The bull case on Tesla is that it will do big things in both cars and adjacent markets. Philippe Houchois, who covers the stock for Jefferies, sees 35% upside from recent levels, to $1,400. Tesla lags behind legacy rivals on things like build quality and finish, but those are solvable problems, he says. It leads on software, batteries, and autonomy, which are durable advantages. He sees Tesla using software to extend the usefulness and profit potential of vehicles.Most versions of the Tesla bear case assume that the company will do well in cars, but not well enough to justify a market value above $1 trillion. For example, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman calls his price target of $295 “not ungenerous,” even though it implies a 70% stock plunge, because it values Tesla slightly ahead of world leader Toyota Motor (TM), despite producing a tenth as many cars for now.Then there’s Gordon Johnson. He worked at large investment banks before starting GLJ Research, where he covers 20 stocks. He’s bullish on uranium stocks and bearish on cannabis, but all anyone wants to talk about, he says, is his $67 price target on Tesla. “I’ve gotten death threats,” he says. “Now I don’t even answer the phone when I have unknown calls.”In Johnson’s view, there’s no reason to assume Tesla will do well in adjacent businesses. “You could take McDonald’s and say they’re going to start selling Nikes and chairs and pianos and add those valuations,” he says. In cars, he calculates that the stock price implies a production ramp-up that no car maker could achieve. “Selling cars is not selling iPhones or shirts,” he says.If Tesla’s three-year stock gain of nearly 1,400% has shaken Johnson’s confidence, it doesn’t show. After walking me through his valuation model, he said he’s concerned that his price target might be too high.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"GM":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861263596,"gmtCreate":1632498527115,"gmtModify":1632715407827,"author":{"id":"4095564389561670","authorId":"4095564389561670","name":"xystarx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ff6886aec0682d84494d058c9b680b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095564389561670","idStr":"4095564389561670"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment","listText":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861263596","repostId":"1142559059","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1142559059","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1632484839,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142559059?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-24 20:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142559059","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Sept 24) Stock futures gave back gains after equities' best day since July.\nAt 08:01 a.m. ET, Dow e","content":"<p>(Sept 24) Stock futures gave back gains after equities' best day since July.</p><p><blockquote>（9月24日）在股市创下7月以来最好的一天后，股指期货回吐涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> At 08:01 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 149 points, or 0.43%, S&P 500 e-minis fell 22.75 points, or 0.51%, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 e-minis sank 106.5 points, or 0.70%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午08:01，道指e-minis下跌149点，跌幅0.43%，标普500 e-minis下跌22.75点，跌幅0.51%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>100辆e-mini下跌106.5点，跌幅0.70%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a653559f88adfa0843eba93e9dc775\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks slumped in U.S. premarket trading. Marathon Digital (MARA) drops 6.5%, Bit Digital (BTBT) declines 4.7%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT) -5.9%, Coinbase -2.8%.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币股票在美国盘前交易中暴跌。Marathon Digital(MARA)下跌6.5%，Bit Digital(BTBT)下跌4.7%，Riot区块链(RIOT)-5.9%，Coinbase-2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Big banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp slipped about 0.5%, while oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp were down 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, in premarket trading.Mega-cap FAAMG tech giants fell between 0.5% and 0.6%. Nike shed 4.6% after the sportswear maker cut its fiscal 2022 sales expectations and warned of delays during the holiday shopping season. Several analysts lowered their price targets on the maker of sports apparel and sneakers after the company cut its FY revenue growth guidance to mid-single- digits.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通、花旗集团、摩根士丹利和美国银行等大银行在盘前交易中下跌约0.5%，而石油巨头埃克森美孚和雪佛龙公司分别下跌0.4%和0.3%。大型FAAMG科技巨头跌幅在0.5%和0.6%之间。运动服装制造商耐克下调了2022财年销售预期，并警告假日购物季将出现延误，股价下跌4.6%。在这家运动服装和运动鞋制造商将财年收入增长指引下调至中个位数后，几位分析师下调了对该公司的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> Robinhood(HOOD),Coinbase(COIN) -- Shares of the retail trading app and cryptocurrency exchange fell in premarket trading after China signaled that it was intensifying its crackdown on crypto.The country's central bank said Friday that all cryptocurrency-related activities are illegal. Shares of Coinbase fell more than 3.6% while Robinhood dropped 2%.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood(HOOD)、Coinbase(COIN)——在中国表示正在加强加密货币打压后，零售交易应用程序和加密货币交易所的股价在盘前交易中下跌。该国央行周五表示，所有与加密货币相关的活动都是非法的。Coinbase股价下跌超过3.6%，Robinhood股价下跌2%。</blockquote></p><p> Roku(ROKU) — Shares of the streaming video platform fell in premarket trading afterWells Fargo downgraded Roku to equal weight from overweight. The investment firm said in a note that Wall Street expectations for Roku's revenue growth are likely too high as competition increases. Shares of Roku were down 2.3%.</p><p><blockquote>Roku（Roku）——富国银行将Roku评级从跑赢大盘下调至同等权重后，该流媒体视频平台的股价在盘前交易中下跌。该投资公司在一份报告中表示，随着竞争加剧，华尔街对Roku营收增长的预期可能过高。Roku股价下跌2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Nike(NKE) — The apparel giant’s stock was under pressure on Friday afterNike cut its revenue forecasts due to supply chain issues.The company said it expects full-year sales growth in the mid-single digits for the 2022 fiscal year, down from a previous forecast of low double-digit growth. Shares of Nike fell more than 4% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>耐克（NKE）——由于供应链问题，耐克下调了收入预期，这家服装巨头的股价周五承压。该公司表示，预计2022财年全年销售额将实现中个位数增长，低于此前预测的低两位数增长。耐克股价在盘前交易中下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p> Under Armour(UAA) — The athletic apparel retailer’s stock fell in premarket trading after rival Nike cut its guidance. Shares of Under Armour were down more than 2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Under Armour(UAA)——在竞争对手耐克下调指引后，这家运动服装零售商的股价在盘前交易中下跌。Under Armour股价在盘前交易中下跌超过2%。</blockquote></p><p> Costco(COST) — The retailer beat expectations on the top and bottom lines in its fiscal fourth-quarter report on Thursday afternoon. The company reported $3.90 in adjusted earnings per share, easily topping expectations of $3.57, and net sales for the quarter rose more than 17% year over year. The stock was slightly higher in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Costco(COST)——该零售商周四下午发布的第四财季报告的营收和利润超出了预期。该公司公布的调整后每股收益为3.90美元，轻松超过预期的3.57美元，该季度净销售额同比增长超过17%。该股在盘前交易中小幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> Merck(MRK) — The pharmaceutical giant, along withAstraZeneca, announced on Friday morning that a treatment using the drug Lynparza slowed the progression of prostate cancer in a phase three trial. Shares of Merck rose more than 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>默克（MRK）——制药巨头和阿斯利康周五上午宣布，在三期试验中，使用药物Lynparza的治疗减缓了前列腺癌的进展。默克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> Cheesecake Factory(CAKE),Dave & Buster's(PLAY) — The restaurant stocks rose slightly in premarket trading after Jefferies upgraded the stocks to buy from hold. The firm said that full-service restaurants have seen traffic hold up well despite the spread of the delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>Cheesecake Factory(CAKE)、Dave&Buster's(PLAY)——杰富瑞(Jefferies)将股票评级从持有上调至买入后，这些餐厅股票在盘前交易中小幅上涨。该公司表示，尽管德尔塔变异毒株蔓延，但提供全方位服务的餐厅的客流量仍保持良好。</blockquote></p><p> Helbiz (HLBZ) — Helbiz falls 10% after the micromobility company filed with the SEC for the sale of as many as 11m shares by stockholders.</p><p><blockquote>Helbiz(HLBZ)–Helbiz股价下跌10%，此前这家微型移动公司向SEC提交了股东出售多达1100万股股票的申请。</blockquote></p><p> Focus Universal (FCUV), — Focus Universal an online marketing company that’s been a favorite of retail traders, surged 26% in premarket trading after the stock was cited on Stocktwits in recent days.</p><p><blockquote>Focus Universal(FCUV),-Focus Universal是一家深受散户交易者喜爱的在线营销公司，最近几天该股在Stocktwits上被引用后，在盘前交易中飙升26%。</blockquote></p><p> Vail Resorts (MTN) — Vail Resorts falls 2.7% in postmarket trading after its full-year forecasts for Ebitda and net income missed at the midpoint.</p><p><blockquote>Vail Resorts(MTN)-Vail Resorts在盘后交易中下跌2.7%，此前其全年Ebitda和净利润预测未达到中点。</blockquote></p><p> GlycoMimetics (GLYC) — GlycoMimetics jumps 15% postmarket after announcing that efficacy and safety data from a Phase 1/2 study of uproleselan in patients with acute myeloid leukemia were published in the journal Blood on Sept. 16.</p><p><blockquote>GlycoMimetics(GLYC)-GlycoMimetics在宣布uproleselan在急性髓系白血病患者中的1/2期研究的疗效和安全性数据于9月16日发表在《血液》杂志上后，上市后股价上涨15%。</blockquote></p><p> VTV Therapeutics (VTVT) — VTV Therapeutics surges 30% after company says its HPP737 psoriasis treatment showed favorable safety and tolerability profile in a multiple ascending dose study. </p><p><blockquote>VTV Therapeutics(VTVT)-VTV Therapeutics表示其HPP737银屑病治疗在一项多次递增剂量研究中显示出良好的安全性和耐受性，股价飙升30%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>In FX, </b>the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed back from a one-week low as concern about possible contagion from Evergrande added to buying of the greenback based on the Federal Reserve tapering timeline signaled on Wednesday. NZD, AUD and CAD sit at the bottom of the G-10 scoreboard. ZAR and TRY are the weakest in EM FX. The pound fell after its rally on Thursday as investors looked ahead to BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s sPeech next week about a possible interest-rate hike. Traders are betting that in a contest to raise borrowing costs first, the Bank of England will be the runaway winner over the Federal Reserve. The New Zealand and Aussie dollars led declines among Group-of-10 peers. The euro was trading flat, with a week full of events failing “to generate any clear directional move,” said ING analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner. German IFO sentiment indeces will “provide extra indications about the area’s sentiment as businesses faced a combination of delta variant concerns and lingering supply disruptions”. The Norwegian krone is the best performing currency among G10 peers this week, with Thursday’s announcement from the Norges Bank offering support</p><p><blockquote><b>在FX中，</b>彭博美元现货指数从一周低点回升，因对恒大可能蔓延的担忧加剧了基于美联储周三暗示的缩减时间表的美元买盘。新西兰元、澳元和加元在G-10记分牌上垫底。ZAR和TRY是新兴市场外汇中最弱的。由于投资者期待英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利下周就可能加息发表的讲话，英镑在周四上涨后下跌。交易员押注，在首先提高借贷成本的竞赛中，英国央行将成为压倒美联储的赢家。新西兰元和澳元在10国集团同行中领跌。ING分析师Francesco Pesole和Chris Turner表示，欧元交易持平，一周的事件未能“产生任何明确的方向性走势”。德国IFO情绪指数将“提供有关该地区情绪的额外指标，因为企业面临德尔塔变异毒株担忧和挥之不去的供应中断的综合因素”。挪威克朗是本周G10货币中表现最好的货币，挪威央行周四宣布提供支持</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities,</b> crude futures hold a narrow range up around best levels for the week. WTI stalls near $73.40, Brent near $77.50. Spot gold extends Asia’s gains, adding $12 on the session to trade near $1,755/oz. Base metals are mixed, LME nickel and aluminum drop ~1%, LME tin outperforms with a 2.8% rally. Bitcoin dips after the PBOC says all crypto-related transactions are illegal.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品中，</b>原油期货在本周最佳水平附近窄幅上涨。WTI徘徊在73.40美元附近，布伦特原油徘徊在77.50美元附近。现货黄金延续亚洲涨幅，盘中上涨12美元，交易价格接近1755美元/盎司。基本金属涨跌互现，LME镍和铝下跌约1%，LME锡上涨2.8%。在中国人民银行表示所有与加密货币相关的交易都是非法的后，比特币下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Looking to the day ahead now, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，我们将听取美联储主席鲍威尔、副主席克拉里达和美联储的梅斯特、鲍曼、乔治和博斯蒂克，以及欧洲央行的莱恩和埃尔德森以及英国央行的坦雷罗的发言。最后，包括拜登总统以及澳大利亚、印度和日本总理在内的四方领导人峰会将在白宫举行。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Friday<blockquote>周五美国市场开盘前的营收</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-24 20:00</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 24) Stock futures gave back gains after equities' best day since July.</p><p><blockquote>（9月24日）在股市创下7月以来最好的一天后，股指期货回吐涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> At 08:01 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 149 points, or 0.43%, S&P 500 e-minis fell 22.75 points, or 0.51%, and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">Nasdaq</a> 100 e-minis sank 106.5 points, or 0.70%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午08:01，道指e-minis下跌149点，跌幅0.43%，标普500 e-minis下跌22.75点，跌幅0.51%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NDAQ\">纳斯达克</a>100辆e-mini下跌106.5点，跌幅0.70%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/30a653559f88adfa0843eba93e9dc775\" tg-width=\"1242\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks slumped in U.S. premarket trading. Marathon Digital (MARA) drops 6.5%, Bit Digital (BTBT) declines 4.7%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT) -5.9%, Coinbase -2.8%.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币股票在美国盘前交易中暴跌。Marathon Digital(MARA)下跌6.5%，Bit Digital(BTBT)下跌4.7%，Riot区块链(RIOT)-5.9%，Coinbase-2.8%。</blockquote></p><p> Big banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp slipped about 0.5%, while oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp were down 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, in premarket trading.Mega-cap FAAMG tech giants fell between 0.5% and 0.6%. Nike shed 4.6% after the sportswear maker cut its fiscal 2022 sales expectations and warned of delays during the holiday shopping season. Several analysts lowered their price targets on the maker of sports apparel and sneakers after the company cut its FY revenue growth guidance to mid-single- digits.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通、花旗集团、摩根士丹利和美国银行等大银行在盘前交易中下跌约0.5%，而石油巨头埃克森美孚和雪佛龙公司分别下跌0.4%和0.3%。大型FAAMG科技巨头跌幅在0.5%和0.6%之间。运动服装制造商耐克下调了2022财年销售预期，并警告假日购物季将出现延误，股价下跌4.6%。在这家运动服装和运动鞋制造商将财年收入增长指引下调至中个位数后，几位分析师下调了对该公司的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> Robinhood(HOOD),Coinbase(COIN) -- Shares of the retail trading app and cryptocurrency exchange fell in premarket trading after China signaled that it was intensifying its crackdown on crypto.The country's central bank said Friday that all cryptocurrency-related activities are illegal. Shares of Coinbase fell more than 3.6% while Robinhood dropped 2%.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood(HOOD)、Coinbase(COIN)——在中国表示正在加强加密货币打压后，零售交易应用程序和加密货币交易所的股价在盘前交易中下跌。该国央行周五表示，所有与加密货币相关的活动都是非法的。Coinbase股价下跌超过3.6%，Robinhood股价下跌2%。</blockquote></p><p> Roku(ROKU) — Shares of the streaming video platform fell in premarket trading afterWells Fargo downgraded Roku to equal weight from overweight. The investment firm said in a note that Wall Street expectations for Roku's revenue growth are likely too high as competition increases. Shares of Roku were down 2.3%.</p><p><blockquote>Roku（Roku）——富国银行将Roku评级从跑赢大盘下调至同等权重后，该流媒体视频平台的股价在盘前交易中下跌。该投资公司在一份报告中表示，随着竞争加剧，华尔街对Roku营收增长的预期可能过高。Roku股价下跌2.3%。</blockquote></p><p> Nike(NKE) — The apparel giant’s stock was under pressure on Friday afterNike cut its revenue forecasts due to supply chain issues.The company said it expects full-year sales growth in the mid-single digits for the 2022 fiscal year, down from a previous forecast of low double-digit growth. Shares of Nike fell more than 4% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>耐克（NKE）——由于供应链问题，耐克下调了收入预期，这家服装巨头的股价周五承压。该公司表示，预计2022财年全年销售额将实现中个位数增长，低于此前预测的低两位数增长。耐克股价在盘前交易中下跌超过4%。</blockquote></p><p> Under Armour(UAA) — The athletic apparel retailer’s stock fell in premarket trading after rival Nike cut its guidance. Shares of Under Armour were down more than 2% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Under Armour(UAA)——在竞争对手耐克下调指引后，这家运动服装零售商的股价在盘前交易中下跌。Under Armour股价在盘前交易中下跌超过2%。</blockquote></p><p> Costco(COST) — The retailer beat expectations on the top and bottom lines in its fiscal fourth-quarter report on Thursday afternoon. The company reported $3.90 in adjusted earnings per share, easily topping expectations of $3.57, and net sales for the quarter rose more than 17% year over year. The stock was slightly higher in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>Costco(COST)——该零售商周四下午发布的第四财季报告的营收和利润超出了预期。该公司公布的调整后每股收益为3.90美元，轻松超过预期的3.57美元，该季度净销售额同比增长超过17%。该股在盘前交易中小幅走高。</blockquote></p><p> Merck(MRK) — The pharmaceutical giant, along withAstraZeneca, announced on Friday morning that a treatment using the drug Lynparza slowed the progression of prostate cancer in a phase three trial. Shares of Merck rose more than 1% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>默克（MRK）——制药巨头和阿斯利康周五上午宣布，在三期试验中，使用药物Lynparza的治疗减缓了前列腺癌的进展。默克股价在盘前交易中上涨超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> Cheesecake Factory(CAKE),Dave & Buster's(PLAY) — The restaurant stocks rose slightly in premarket trading after Jefferies upgraded the stocks to buy from hold. The firm said that full-service restaurants have seen traffic hold up well despite the spread of the delta variant.</p><p><blockquote>Cheesecake Factory(CAKE)、Dave&Buster's(PLAY)——杰富瑞(Jefferies)将股票评级从持有上调至买入后，这些餐厅股票在盘前交易中小幅上涨。该公司表示，尽管德尔塔变异毒株蔓延，但提供全方位服务的餐厅的客流量仍保持良好。</blockquote></p><p> Helbiz (HLBZ) — Helbiz falls 10% after the micromobility company filed with the SEC for the sale of as many as 11m shares by stockholders.</p><p><blockquote>Helbiz(HLBZ)–Helbiz股价下跌10%，此前这家微型移动公司向SEC提交了股东出售多达1100万股股票的申请。</blockquote></p><p> Focus Universal (FCUV), — Focus Universal an online marketing company that’s been a favorite of retail traders, surged 26% in premarket trading after the stock was cited on Stocktwits in recent days.</p><p><blockquote>Focus Universal(FCUV),-Focus Universal是一家深受散户交易者喜爱的在线营销公司，最近几天该股在Stocktwits上被引用后，在盘前交易中飙升26%。</blockquote></p><p> Vail Resorts (MTN) — Vail Resorts falls 2.7% in postmarket trading after its full-year forecasts for Ebitda and net income missed at the midpoint.</p><p><blockquote>Vail Resorts(MTN)-Vail Resorts在盘后交易中下跌2.7%，此前其全年Ebitda和净利润预测未达到中点。</blockquote></p><p> GlycoMimetics (GLYC) — GlycoMimetics jumps 15% postmarket after announcing that efficacy and safety data from a Phase 1/2 study of uproleselan in patients with acute myeloid leukemia were published in the journal Blood on Sept. 16.</p><p><blockquote>GlycoMimetics(GLYC)-GlycoMimetics在宣布uproleselan在急性髓系白血病患者中的1/2期研究的疗效和安全性数据于9月16日发表在《血液》杂志上后，上市后股价上涨15%。</blockquote></p><p> VTV Therapeutics (VTVT) — VTV Therapeutics surges 30% after company says its HPP737 psoriasis treatment showed favorable safety and tolerability profile in a multiple ascending dose study. </p><p><blockquote>VTV Therapeutics(VTVT)-VTV Therapeutics表示其HPP737银屑病治疗在一项多次递增剂量研究中显示出良好的安全性和耐受性，股价飙升30%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>In FX, </b>the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed back from a one-week low as concern about possible contagion from Evergrande added to buying of the greenback based on the Federal Reserve tapering timeline signaled on Wednesday. NZD, AUD and CAD sit at the bottom of the G-10 scoreboard. ZAR and TRY are the weakest in EM FX. The pound fell after its rally on Thursday as investors looked ahead to BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s sPeech next week about a possible interest-rate hike. Traders are betting that in a contest to raise borrowing costs first, the Bank of England will be the runaway winner over the Federal Reserve. The New Zealand and Aussie dollars led declines among Group-of-10 peers. The euro was trading flat, with a week full of events failing “to generate any clear directional move,” said ING analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner. German IFO sentiment indeces will “provide extra indications about the area’s sentiment as businesses faced a combination of delta variant concerns and lingering supply disruptions”. The Norwegian krone is the best performing currency among G10 peers this week, with Thursday’s announcement from the Norges Bank offering support</p><p><blockquote><b>在FX中，</b>彭博美元现货指数从一周低点回升，因对恒大可能蔓延的担忧加剧了基于美联储周三暗示的缩减时间表的美元买盘。新西兰元、澳元和加元在G-10记分牌上垫底。ZAR和TRY是新兴市场外汇中最弱的。由于投资者期待英国央行行长安德鲁·贝利下周就可能加息发表的讲话，英镑在周四上涨后下跌。交易员押注，在首先提高借贷成本的竞赛中，英国央行将成为压倒美联储的赢家。新西兰元和澳元在10国集团同行中领跌。ING分析师Francesco Pesole和Chris Turner表示，欧元交易持平，一周的事件未能“产生任何明确的方向性走势”。德国IFO情绪指数将“提供有关该地区情绪的额外指标，因为企业面临德尔塔变异毒株担忧和挥之不去的供应中断的综合因素”。挪威克朗是本周G10货币中表现最好的货币，挪威央行周四宣布提供支持</blockquote></p><p> <b>In commodities,</b> crude futures hold a narrow range up around best levels for the week. WTI stalls near $73.40, Brent near $77.50. Spot gold extends Asia’s gains, adding $12 on the session to trade near $1,755/oz. Base metals are mixed, LME nickel and aluminum drop ~1%, LME tin outperforms with a 2.8% rally. Bitcoin dips after the PBOC says all crypto-related transactions are illegal.</p><p><blockquote><b>在大宗商品中，</b>原油期货在本周最佳水平附近窄幅上涨。WTI徘徊在73.40美元附近，布伦特原油徘徊在77.50美元附近。现货黄金延续亚洲涨幅，盘中上涨12美元，交易价格接近1755美元/盎司。基本金属涨跌互现，LME镍和铝下跌约1%，LME锡上涨2.8%。在中国人民银行表示所有与加密货币相关的交易都是非法的后，比特币下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Looking to the day ahead now, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，我们将听取美联储主席鲍威尔、副主席克拉里达和美联储的梅斯特、鲍曼、乔治和博斯蒂克，以及欧洲央行的莱恩和埃尔德森以及英国央行的坦雷罗的发言。最后，包括拜登总统以及澳大利亚、印度和日本总理在内的四方领导人峰会将在白宫举行。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142559059","content_text":"(Sept 24) Stock futures gave back gains after equities' best day since July.\nAt 08:01 a.m. ET, Dow e-minis were down 149 points, or 0.43%, S&P 500 e-minis fell 22.75 points, or 0.51%, and Nasdaq 100 e-minis sank 106.5 points, or 0.70%.\n\nCryptocurrency-exposed stocks slumped in U.S. premarket trading. Marathon Digital (MARA) drops 6.5%, Bit Digital (BTBT) declines 4.7%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT) -5.9%, Coinbase -2.8%.\nBig banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley and Bank of America Corp slipped about 0.5%, while oil majors Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp were down 0.4% and 0.3%, respectively, in premarket trading.Mega-cap FAAMG tech giants fell between 0.5% and 0.6%. Nike shed 4.6% after the sportswear maker cut its fiscal 2022 sales expectations and warned of delays during the holiday shopping season. Several analysts lowered their price targets on the maker of sports apparel and sneakers after the company cut its FY revenue growth guidance to mid-single- digits.\nStocks making the biggest moves premarket:\nRobinhood(HOOD),Coinbase(COIN) -- Shares of the retail trading app and cryptocurrency exchange fell in premarket trading after China signaled that it was intensifying its crackdown on crypto.The country's central bank said Friday that all cryptocurrency-related activities are illegal. Shares of Coinbase fell more than 3.6% while Robinhood dropped 2%.\nRoku(ROKU) — Shares of the streaming video platform fell in premarket trading afterWells Fargo downgraded Roku to equal weight from overweight. The investment firm said in a note that Wall Street expectations for Roku's revenue growth are likely too high as competition increases. Shares of Roku were down 2.3%.\nNike(NKE) — The apparel giant’s stock was under pressure on Friday afterNike cut its revenue forecasts due to supply chain issues.The company said it expects full-year sales growth in the mid-single digits for the 2022 fiscal year, down from a previous forecast of low double-digit growth. Shares of Nike fell more than 4% in premarket trading.\nUnder Armour(UAA) — The athletic apparel retailer’s stock fell in premarket trading after rival Nike cut its guidance. Shares of Under Armour were down more than 2% in premarket trading.\nCostco(COST) — The retailer beat expectations on the top and bottom lines in its fiscal fourth-quarter report on Thursday afternoon. The company reported $3.90 in adjusted earnings per share, easily topping expectations of $3.57, and net sales for the quarter rose more than 17% year over year. The stock was slightly higher in premarket trading.\nMerck(MRK) — The pharmaceutical giant, along withAstraZeneca, announced on Friday morning that a treatment using the drug Lynparza slowed the progression of prostate cancer in a phase three trial. Shares of Merck rose more than 1% in premarket trading.\nCheesecake Factory(CAKE),Dave & Buster's(PLAY) — The restaurant stocks rose slightly in premarket trading after Jefferies upgraded the stocks to buy from hold. The firm said that full-service restaurants have seen traffic hold up well despite the spread of the delta variant.\nHelbiz (HLBZ) — Helbiz falls 10% after the micromobility company filed with the SEC for the sale of as many as 11m shares by stockholders.\nFocus Universal (FCUV), — Focus Universal an online marketing company that’s been a favorite of retail traders, surged 26% in premarket trading after the stock was cited on Stocktwits in recent days.\nVail Resorts (MTN) — Vail Resorts falls 2.7% in postmarket trading after its full-year forecasts for Ebitda and net income missed at the midpoint.\nGlycoMimetics (GLYC) — GlycoMimetics jumps 15% postmarket after announcing that efficacy and safety data from a Phase 1/2 study of uproleselan in patients with acute myeloid leukemia were published in the journal Blood on Sept. 16.\nVTV Therapeutics (VTVT) — VTV Therapeutics surges 30% after company says its HPP737 psoriasis treatment showed favorable safety and tolerability profile in a multiple ascending dose study. \nIn FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index climbed back from a one-week low as concern about possible contagion from Evergrande added to buying of the greenback based on the Federal Reserve tapering timeline signaled on Wednesday. NZD, AUD and CAD sit at the bottom of the G-10 scoreboard. ZAR and TRY are the weakest in EM FX. The pound fell after its rally on Thursday as investors looked ahead to BOE Governor Andrew Bailey’s sPeech next week about a possible interest-rate hike. Traders are betting that in a contest to raise borrowing costs first, the Bank of England will be the runaway winner over the Federal Reserve. The New Zealand and Aussie dollars led declines among Group-of-10 peers. The euro was trading flat, with a week full of events failing “to generate any clear directional move,” said ING analysts Francesco Pesole and Chris Turner. German IFO sentiment indeces will “provide extra indications about the area’s sentiment as businesses faced a combination of delta variant concerns and lingering supply disruptions”. The Norwegian krone is the best performing currency among G10 peers this week, with Thursday’s announcement from the Norges Bank offering support\nIn commodities, crude futures hold a narrow range up around best levels for the week. WTI stalls near $73.40, Brent near $77.50. Spot gold extends Asia’s gains, adding $12 on the session to trade near $1,755/oz. Base metals are mixed, LME nickel and aluminum drop ~1%, LME tin outperforms with a 2.8% rally. Bitcoin dips after the PBOC says all crypto-related transactions are illegal.\nLooking to the day ahead now, we’ll hear from Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Clarida and the Fed’s Mester, Bowman, George and Bostic, as well as the ECB’s Lane and Elderson, and the BoE’s Tenreyro. Finally, a summit of the Quad Leaders will be held at the White House, including President Biden, and the Prime Ministers of Australia, India and Japan.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861601039,"gmtCreate":1632489368821,"gmtModify":1632718242966,"author":{"id":"4095564389561670","authorId":"4095564389561670","name":"xystarx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ff6886aec0682d84494d058c9b680b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095564389561670","idStr":"4095564389561670"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😊","listText":"😊","text":"😊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861601039","repostId":"1142559059","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":694371510,"gmtCreate":1641835224038,"gmtModify":1641835224038,"author":{"id":"4095564389561670","authorId":"4095564389561670","name":"xystarx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ff6886aec0682d84494d058c9b680b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095564389561670","idStr":"4095564389561670"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like","listText":"Please like","text":"Please like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694371510","repostId":"1199490797","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199490797","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1641828722,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1199490797?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-10 23:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Is Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将升至1,400美元还是67美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199490797","media":"Barrons","summary":"Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting?","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting? Ford Motor, General Motors, Tesla, and Rivian Automotive each had price swings of more than 10% during the first trading week of the year. This, after some heady gains for the group last year.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>当汽车股如此令人兴奋时，谁还需要模仿加密货币？福特汽车、通用汽车、特斯拉和Rivian汽车在今年第一个交易周的价格波动均超过10%。在此之前，该集团去年取得了一些令人兴奋的收益。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Predicting performance from here won’t be easy. I recently spoke with one analyst who says Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is headed to $1,400, and another who says $67. You know what they say: Sometimes you have to agree to disagree by a factor of 20.</p><p><blockquote>从这里预测性能并不容易。我最近与一位分析师交谈，他表示特斯拉股票（股票代码：TSLA）将达到1,400美元，另一位分析师则表示67美元。你知道他们说什么：有时你必须同意20倍的不同意见。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla made the first big move, jumping 13.5% on Monday after the company reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 308,600 vehicles, trouncing estimates and its own record. Next, Ford (F) gained 11.7% on Tuesday after it announced that it would raise production of its first electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, to 150,000 units a year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公布第四季度交付量为308,600辆汽车，超出预期和自己的记录，周一股价上涨13.5%。接下来，福特(F)周二上涨11.7%，此前该公司宣布将把其首款电动皮卡F-150 Lightning的产量提高至每年15万辆。</blockquote></p><p>By that point in the week, General Motors stock (GM) was already up 12% in anticipation of its Chevy Silverado electric pickup truck unveiling, planned for Wednesday at the Consumer Electronics Show. But on the day of the announcement, shares slipped. Maybe investors were disappointed in the delivery timing, or maybe it was because the broad market tanked on signs that interest rates could rise sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>到本周这个时候，通用汽车(GM)的股价已经上涨了12%，预计其雪佛兰索罗德电动皮卡将于周三在消费电子展上亮相。但在公告发布当天，股价下跌。也许投资者对交付时间感到失望，也可能是因为有迹象表明利率可能比预期更快上升，导致大盘暴跌。</blockquote></p><p>What the Ford and Chevy pickups have in common is that they will target workers as well as suburban preeners in unblemished Carhartt jackets. Early versions will be priced around $40,000 and $100,000.</p><p><blockquote>福特和雪佛兰皮卡的共同点是，它们的目标是工人以及穿着完美无瑕的卡哈特夹克的郊区装扮者。早期版本的售价将在4万美元和10万美元左右。</blockquote></p><p>The Chevy wins on electric specs—longer battery range and faster charging. But Ford wins on bringing its truck to market this spring. Chevy buyers will have to wait until spring 2023 for the cheaper truck and fall 2023 for the decked-out one. GM will also debut electric Chevy sport utility vehicles in 2023, including an Equinox that will start at $30,000.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛兰在电动规格上胜出——更长的电池续航里程和更快的充电速度。但福特凭借今年春天将其卡车推向市场而获胜。雪佛兰买家必须等到2023年春季才能购买更便宜的卡车，而要等到2023年秋季才能购买经过装饰的卡车。通用汽车还将于2023年推出电动雪佛兰运动型多功能车，其中包括起价为30,000美元的Equinox。</blockquote></p><p>Pickup trucks could be the key to America’s electric-vehicle uptake. Last year, EVs hit an estimated 4% of total U.S. sales, up from 2%. But Europe and China are well ahead, with penetration rates in the low teens. Americans have so far had few electric choices for the types of vehicles they like to buy. Last year, the Ford F-150 led U.S. new-vehicle sales, as always. The only surprise was that the Ram 1500 pickup pulled ahead of the Chevy Silverado 1500 to be No. 2.</p><p><blockquote>皮卡车可能是美国电动汽车普及的关键。去年，电动汽车估计占美国总销量的4%，高于2%。但欧洲和中国遥遥领先，普及率在十几岁左右。到目前为止，美国人对于他们喜欢购买的车辆类型几乎没有电动选择。去年，福特F-150一如既往地引领美国新车销量。唯一令人惊讶的是Ram 1500皮卡领先于雪佛兰Silverado 1500，排名第二。</blockquote></p><p>An electric Ram will take until 2024, according to owner Stellantis (STLA), a roll-up of American, Italian, and French brands. Start-up Rivian (RIVN) says it will ship electric pickups this year, but that stock slid 11% this past Wednesday after early backer Amazon.com (AMZN) said it’s putting in an order with Ram for delivery trucks. Tesla’s Cybertruck was expected last year, but has been delayed.</p><p><blockquote>据美国、意大利和法国品牌的Stellantis(STLA)称，电动公羊要到2024年才会问世。初创公司Rivian(RIVN)表示今年将生产电动皮卡，但在早期支持者亚马逊(AMZN)表示将向Ram订购送货卡车后，该股上周三下跌了11%。特斯拉的Cybertruck预计在去年推出，但一直被推迟。</blockquote></p><p>Pent-up vehicle demand, meanwhile, suggests that a boom is coming. Amid shortages last year, U.S. light-vehicle sales were an estimated 15.1 million units, versus closer to 17 million a year before the pandemic. Average transaction prices have soared 30% from prepandemic levels, and incentives as a percentage of prices are at record lows.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，被压抑的汽车需求表明繁荣即将到来。在去年短缺的情况下，美国轻型汽车销量估计为1510万辆，而疫情爆发前一年接近1700万辆。平均交易价格较大流行前水平飙升30%，激励措施占价格的百分比创历史新低。</blockquote></p><p>This year, expect unit sales to rise only modestly, but by next year, when showrooms are full and pricing has eased, units could jump to 18 million, Credit Suisse says. EV penetration in the U.S. will double again this year to 8%, and top 50% by 2030, it adds.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷表示，预计今年的销量只会小幅增长，但到明年，当展厅爆满且定价有所缓解时，销量可能会跃升至1800万辆。报告补充说，今年美国的电动汽车普及率将再次翻一番，达到8%，到2030年将超过50%。</blockquote></p><p>One risk for legacy car makers is that they will run to stand still—that they must ramp up EV units with low profit margins for now to offset coming losses in high-margin gasoline models.</p><p><blockquote>传统汽车制造商面临的一个风险是，他们将停滞不前——他们目前必须增加利润率较低的电动汽车产品，以抵消高利润汽油车型即将出现的亏损。</blockquote></p><p>On the other hand, car makers could shift capacity from gasoline vehicles to electric ones ahead of customers’ willingness to make the switch. That could leave gas vehicles with high prices and profit margins, creating a long, lucrative “farewell tour,” as Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas puts it.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，汽车制造商可以在客户愿意之前将产能从汽油车转移到电动汽车。正如摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯（Adam Jonas）所说，这可能会让燃气汽车拥有高昂的价格和利润率，从而创造一个漫长而有利可图的“告别之旅”。</blockquote></p><p>Valuations appear undemanding. Ford goes for 12 times projected earnings, despite doubling in price last year. GM sells for nine times.</p><p><blockquote>估值似乎并不高。尽管去年股价翻了一番，但福特的市盈率仍是预期市盈率的12倍。通用汽车的售价是九倍。</blockquote></p><p>The bull case on Tesla is that it will do big things in both cars and adjacent markets. Philippe Houchois, who covers the stock for Jefferies, sees 35% upside from recent levels, to $1,400. Tesla lags behind legacy rivals on things like build quality and finish, but those are solvable problems, he says. It leads on software, batteries, and autonomy, which are durable advantages. He sees Tesla using software to extend the usefulness and profit potential of vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>看好特斯拉的理由是，它将在汽车和邻近市场大有作为。杰富瑞(Jefferies)负责该股的Philippe Houchois预计，该股较近期水平上涨35%，至1,400美元。他说，特斯拉在制造质量和表面处理等方面落后于传统竞争对手，但这些都是可以解决的问题。它在软件、电池和自主性方面领先，这些都是持久的优势。他认为特斯拉正在使用软件来扩展车辆的实用性和利润潜力。</blockquote></p><p>Most versions of the Tesla bear case assume that the company will do well in cars, but not well enough to justify a market value above $1 trillion. For example, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman calls his price target of $295 “not ungenerous,” even though it implies a 70% stock plunge, because it values Tesla slightly ahead of world leader Toyota Motor (TM), despite producing a tenth as many cars for now.</p><p><blockquote>大多数版本的特斯拉熊市案例都假设该公司在汽车领域会表现良好，但还不足以证明市值超过1万亿美元是合理的。例如，摩根大通(J.P.Morgan)的Ryan Brinkman评级称，他295美元的目标价“并不吝啬”，尽管这意味着股价将暴跌70%，因为特斯拉的估值略高于世界领先者丰田汽车(TM)，尽管其产量仅为世界领先者丰田汽车(TM)的十分之一。目前的汽车数量。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Then there’s Gordon Johnson. He worked at large investment banks before starting GLJ Research, where he covers 20 stocks. He’s bullish on uranium stocks and bearish on cannabis, but all anyone wants to talk about, he says, is his $67 price target on Tesla. “I’ve gotten death threats,” he says. “Now I don’t even answer the phone when I have unknown calls.”</p><p><blockquote>然后是戈登·约翰逊。在创办GLJ Research之前，他曾在大型投资银行工作，研究20只股票。他看好铀股，看跌大麻，但他说，所有人都想谈论的是他对特斯拉67美元的目标价。“我收到了死亡威胁，”他说。“现在有不明评级，连电话都不接。”</blockquote></p><p>In Johnson’s view, there’s no reason to assume Tesla will do well in adjacent businesses. “You could take McDonald’s and say they’re going to start selling Nikes and chairs and pianos and add those valuations,” he says. In cars, he calculates that the stock price implies a production ramp-up that no car maker could achieve. “Selling cars is not selling iPhones or shirts,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>在Johnson看来，没有理由假设特斯拉在邻近业务上会做得很好。“你可以拿麦当劳来说，他们将开始销售耐克、椅子和钢琴，并增加这些估值，”他说。在汽车领域，他计算出股价意味着任何汽车制造商都无法实现的产量提升。“卖汽车不是卖iPhone或衬衫，”他说。</blockquote></p><p>If Tesla’s three-year stock gain of nearly 1,400% has shaken Johnson’s confidence, it doesn’t show. After walking me through his valuation model, he said he’s concerned that his price target might be too high.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉近1400%的三年股价涨幅动摇了Johnson的信心，但这并没有表现出来。在向我介绍了他的估值模型后，他说他担心他的价格目标可能太高。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Is Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将升至1,400美元还是67美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIs Tesla Stock Headed to $1,400 or $67? Why Predicting Auto Makers’ Performance Is Tricky<blockquote>特斯拉股价将升至1,400美元还是67美元？为什么预测汽车制造商的业绩很棘手</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-10 23:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting? Ford Motor, General Motors, Tesla, and Rivian Automotive each had price swings of more than 10% during the first trading week of the year. This, after some heady gains for the group last year.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>当汽车股如此令人兴奋时，谁还需要模仿加密货币？福特汽车、通用汽车、特斯拉和Rivian汽车在今年第一个交易周的价格波动均超过10%。在此之前，该集团去年取得了一些令人兴奋的收益。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Predicting performance from here won’t be easy. I recently spoke with one analyst who says Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is headed to $1,400, and another who says $67. You know what they say: Sometimes you have to agree to disagree by a factor of 20.</p><p><blockquote>从这里预测性能并不容易。我最近与一位分析师交谈，他表示特斯拉股票（股票代码：TSLA）将达到1,400美元，另一位分析师则表示67美元。你知道他们说什么：有时你必须同意20倍的不同意见。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla made the first big move, jumping 13.5% on Monday after the company reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 308,600 vehicles, trouncing estimates and its own record. Next, Ford (F) gained 11.7% on Tuesday after it announced that it would raise production of its first electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, to 150,000 units a year.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉公布第四季度交付量为308,600辆汽车，超出预期和自己的记录，周一股价上涨13.5%。接下来，福特(F)周二上涨11.7%，此前该公司宣布将把其首款电动皮卡F-150 Lightning的产量提高至每年15万辆。</blockquote></p><p>By that point in the week, General Motors stock (GM) was already up 12% in anticipation of its Chevy Silverado electric pickup truck unveiling, planned for Wednesday at the Consumer Electronics Show. But on the day of the announcement, shares slipped. Maybe investors were disappointed in the delivery timing, or maybe it was because the broad market tanked on signs that interest rates could rise sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>到本周这个时候，通用汽车(GM)的股价已经上涨了12%，预计其雪佛兰索罗德电动皮卡将于周三在消费电子展上亮相。但在公告发布当天，股价下跌。也许投资者对交付时间感到失望，也可能是因为有迹象表明利率可能比预期更快上升，导致大盘暴跌。</blockquote></p><p>What the Ford and Chevy pickups have in common is that they will target workers as well as suburban preeners in unblemished Carhartt jackets. Early versions will be priced around $40,000 and $100,000.</p><p><blockquote>福特和雪佛兰皮卡的共同点是，它们的目标是工人以及穿着完美无瑕的卡哈特夹克的郊区装扮者。早期版本的售价将在4万美元和10万美元左右。</blockquote></p><p>The Chevy wins on electric specs—longer battery range and faster charging. But Ford wins on bringing its truck to market this spring. Chevy buyers will have to wait until spring 2023 for the cheaper truck and fall 2023 for the decked-out one. GM will also debut electric Chevy sport utility vehicles in 2023, including an Equinox that will start at $30,000.</p><p><blockquote>雪佛兰在电动规格上胜出——更长的电池续航里程和更快的充电速度。但福特凭借今年春天将其卡车推向市场而获胜。雪佛兰买家必须等到2023年春季才能购买更便宜的卡车，而要等到2023年秋季才能购买经过装饰的卡车。通用汽车还将于2023年推出电动雪佛兰运动型多功能车，其中包括起价为30,000美元的Equinox。</blockquote></p><p>Pickup trucks could be the key to America’s electric-vehicle uptake. Last year, EVs hit an estimated 4% of total U.S. sales, up from 2%. But Europe and China are well ahead, with penetration rates in the low teens. Americans have so far had few electric choices for the types of vehicles they like to buy. Last year, the Ford F-150 led U.S. new-vehicle sales, as always. The only surprise was that the Ram 1500 pickup pulled ahead of the Chevy Silverado 1500 to be No. 2.</p><p><blockquote>皮卡车可能是美国电动汽车普及的关键。去年，电动汽车估计占美国总销量的4%，高于2%。但欧洲和中国遥遥领先，普及率在十几岁左右。到目前为止，美国人对于他们喜欢购买的车辆类型几乎没有电动选择。去年，福特F-150一如既往地引领美国新车销量。唯一令人惊讶的是Ram 1500皮卡领先于雪佛兰Silverado 1500，排名第二。</blockquote></p><p>An electric Ram will take until 2024, according to owner Stellantis (STLA), a roll-up of American, Italian, and French brands. Start-up Rivian (RIVN) says it will ship electric pickups this year, but that stock slid 11% this past Wednesday after early backer Amazon.com (AMZN) said it’s putting in an order with Ram for delivery trucks. Tesla’s Cybertruck was expected last year, but has been delayed.</p><p><blockquote>据美国、意大利和法国品牌的Stellantis(STLA)称，电动公羊要到2024年才会问世。初创公司Rivian(RIVN)表示今年将生产电动皮卡，但在早期支持者亚马逊(AMZN)表示将向Ram订购送货卡车后，该股上周三下跌了11%。特斯拉的Cybertruck预计在去年推出，但一直被推迟。</blockquote></p><p>Pent-up vehicle demand, meanwhile, suggests that a boom is coming. Amid shortages last year, U.S. light-vehicle sales were an estimated 15.1 million units, versus closer to 17 million a year before the pandemic. Average transaction prices have soared 30% from prepandemic levels, and incentives as a percentage of prices are at record lows.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，被压抑的汽车需求表明繁荣即将到来。在去年短缺的情况下，美国轻型汽车销量估计为1510万辆，而疫情爆发前一年接近1700万辆。平均交易价格较大流行前水平飙升30%，激励措施占价格的百分比创历史新低。</blockquote></p><p>This year, expect unit sales to rise only modestly, but by next year, when showrooms are full and pricing has eased, units could jump to 18 million, Credit Suisse says. EV penetration in the U.S. will double again this year to 8%, and top 50% by 2030, it adds.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷表示，预计今年的销量只会小幅增长，但到明年，当展厅爆满且定价有所缓解时，销量可能会跃升至1800万辆。报告补充说，今年美国的电动汽车普及率将再次翻一番，达到8%，到2030年将超过50%。</blockquote></p><p>One risk for legacy car makers is that they will run to stand still—that they must ramp up EV units with low profit margins for now to offset coming losses in high-margin gasoline models.</p><p><blockquote>传统汽车制造商面临的一个风险是，他们将停滞不前——他们目前必须增加利润率较低的电动汽车产品，以抵消高利润汽油车型即将出现的亏损。</blockquote></p><p>On the other hand, car makers could shift capacity from gasoline vehicles to electric ones ahead of customers’ willingness to make the switch. That could leave gas vehicles with high prices and profit margins, creating a long, lucrative “farewell tour,” as Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas puts it.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，汽车制造商可以在客户愿意之前将产能从汽油车转移到电动汽车。正如摩根士丹利分析师亚当·乔纳斯（Adam Jonas）所说，这可能会让燃气汽车拥有高昂的价格和利润率，从而创造一个漫长而有利可图的“告别之旅”。</blockquote></p><p>Valuations appear undemanding. Ford goes for 12 times projected earnings, despite doubling in price last year. GM sells for nine times.</p><p><blockquote>估值似乎并不高。尽管去年股价翻了一番，但福特的市盈率仍是预期市盈率的12倍。通用汽车的售价是九倍。</blockquote></p><p>The bull case on Tesla is that it will do big things in both cars and adjacent markets. Philippe Houchois, who covers the stock for Jefferies, sees 35% upside from recent levels, to $1,400. Tesla lags behind legacy rivals on things like build quality and finish, but those are solvable problems, he says. It leads on software, batteries, and autonomy, which are durable advantages. He sees Tesla using software to extend the usefulness and profit potential of vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>看好特斯拉的理由是，它将在汽车和邻近市场大有作为。杰富瑞(Jefferies)负责该股的Philippe Houchois预计，该股较近期水平上涨35%，至1,400美元。他说，特斯拉在制造质量和表面处理等方面落后于传统竞争对手，但这些都是可以解决的问题。它在软件、电池和自主性方面领先，这些都是持久的优势。他认为特斯拉正在使用软件来扩展车辆的实用性和利润潜力。</blockquote></p><p>Most versions of the Tesla bear case assume that the company will do well in cars, but not well enough to justify a market value above $1 trillion. For example, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman calls his price target of $295 “not ungenerous,” even though it implies a 70% stock plunge, because it values Tesla slightly ahead of world leader Toyota Motor (TM), despite producing a tenth as many cars for now.</p><p><blockquote>大多数版本的特斯拉熊市案例都假设该公司在汽车领域会表现良好，但还不足以证明市值超过1万亿美元是合理的。例如，摩根大通(J.P.Morgan)的Ryan Brinkman评级称，他295美元的目标价“并不吝啬”，尽管这意味着股价将暴跌70%，因为特斯拉的估值略高于世界领先者丰田汽车(TM)，尽管其产量仅为世界领先者丰田汽车(TM)的十分之一。目前的汽车数量。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Then there’s Gordon Johnson. He worked at large investment banks before starting GLJ Research, where he covers 20 stocks. He’s bullish on uranium stocks and bearish on cannabis, but all anyone wants to talk about, he says, is his $67 price target on Tesla. “I’ve gotten death threats,” he says. “Now I don’t even answer the phone when I have unknown calls.”</p><p><blockquote>然后是戈登·约翰逊。在创办GLJ Research之前，他曾在大型投资银行工作，研究20只股票。他看好铀股，看跌大麻，但他说，所有人都想谈论的是他对特斯拉67美元的目标价。“我收到了死亡威胁，”他说。“现在有不明评级，连电话都不接。”</blockquote></p><p>In Johnson’s view, there’s no reason to assume Tesla will do well in adjacent businesses. “You could take McDonald’s and say they’re going to start selling Nikes and chairs and pianos and add those valuations,” he says. In cars, he calculates that the stock price implies a production ramp-up that no car maker could achieve. “Selling cars is not selling iPhones or shirts,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>在Johnson看来，没有理由假设特斯拉在邻近业务上会做得很好。“你可以拿麦当劳来说，他们将开始销售耐克、椅子和钢琴，并增加这些估值，”他说。在汽车领域，他计算出股价意味着任何汽车制造商都无法实现的产量提升。“卖汽车不是卖iPhone或衬衫，”他说。</blockquote></p><p>If Tesla’s three-year stock gain of nearly 1,400% has shaken Johnson’s confidence, it doesn’t show. After walking me through his valuation model, he said he’s concerned that his price target might be too high.</p><p><blockquote>如果特斯拉近1400%的三年股价涨幅动摇了Johnson的信心，但这并没有表现出来。在向我介绍了他的估值模型后，他说他担心他的价格目标可能太高。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-ford-rivian-gm-stock-51641597012?mod=mw_quote_news\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"F":"福特汽车","TSLA":"特斯拉","RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc.","GM":"通用汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/tesla-ford-rivian-gm-stock-51641597012?mod=mw_quote_news","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1199490797","content_text":"Who needs parody cryptocurrency when car stocks are this exciting? Ford Motor, General Motors, Tesla, and Rivian Automotive each had price swings of more than 10% during the first trading week of the year. This, after some heady gains for the group last year.Predicting performance from here won’t be easy. I recently spoke with one analyst who says Tesla stock (ticker: TSLA) is headed to $1,400, and another who says $67. You know what they say: Sometimes you have to agree to disagree by a factor of 20.Tesla made the first big move, jumping 13.5% on Monday after the company reported fourth-quarter deliveries of 308,600 vehicles, trouncing estimates and its own record. Next, Ford (F) gained 11.7% on Tuesday after it announced that it would raise production of its first electric pickup, the F-150 Lightning, to 150,000 units a year.By that point in the week, General Motors stock (GM) was already up 12% in anticipation of its Chevy Silverado electric pickup truck unveiling, planned for Wednesday at the Consumer Electronics Show. But on the day of the announcement, shares slipped. Maybe investors were disappointed in the delivery timing, or maybe it was because the broad market tanked on signs that interest rates could rise sooner than expected.What the Ford and Chevy pickups have in common is that they will target workers as well as suburban preeners in unblemished Carhartt jackets. Early versions will be priced around $40,000 and $100,000.The Chevy wins on electric specs—longer battery range and faster charging. But Ford wins on bringing its truck to market this spring. Chevy buyers will have to wait until spring 2023 for the cheaper truck and fall 2023 for the decked-out one. GM will also debut electric Chevy sport utility vehicles in 2023, including an Equinox that will start at $30,000.Pickup trucks could be the key to America’s electric-vehicle uptake. Last year, EVs hit an estimated 4% of total U.S. sales, up from 2%. But Europe and China are well ahead, with penetration rates in the low teens. Americans have so far had few electric choices for the types of vehicles they like to buy. Last year, the Ford F-150 led U.S. new-vehicle sales, as always. The only surprise was that the Ram 1500 pickup pulled ahead of the Chevy Silverado 1500 to be No. 2.An electric Ram will take until 2024, according to owner Stellantis (STLA), a roll-up of American, Italian, and French brands. Start-up Rivian (RIVN) says it will ship electric pickups this year, but that stock slid 11% this past Wednesday after early backer Amazon.com (AMZN) said it’s putting in an order with Ram for delivery trucks. Tesla’s Cybertruck was expected last year, but has been delayed.Pent-up vehicle demand, meanwhile, suggests that a boom is coming. Amid shortages last year, U.S. light-vehicle sales were an estimated 15.1 million units, versus closer to 17 million a year before the pandemic. Average transaction prices have soared 30% from prepandemic levels, and incentives as a percentage of prices are at record lows.This year, expect unit sales to rise only modestly, but by next year, when showrooms are full and pricing has eased, units could jump to 18 million, Credit Suisse says. EV penetration in the U.S. will double again this year to 8%, and top 50% by 2030, it adds.One risk for legacy car makers is that they will run to stand still—that they must ramp up EV units with low profit margins for now to offset coming losses in high-margin gasoline models.On the other hand, car makers could shift capacity from gasoline vehicles to electric ones ahead of customers’ willingness to make the switch. That could leave gas vehicles with high prices and profit margins, creating a long, lucrative “farewell tour,” as Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas puts it.Valuations appear undemanding. Ford goes for 12 times projected earnings, despite doubling in price last year. GM sells for nine times.The bull case on Tesla is that it will do big things in both cars and adjacent markets. Philippe Houchois, who covers the stock for Jefferies, sees 35% upside from recent levels, to $1,400. Tesla lags behind legacy rivals on things like build quality and finish, but those are solvable problems, he says. It leads on software, batteries, and autonomy, which are durable advantages. He sees Tesla using software to extend the usefulness and profit potential of vehicles.Most versions of the Tesla bear case assume that the company will do well in cars, but not well enough to justify a market value above $1 trillion. For example, J.P. Morgan’s Ryan Brinkman calls his price target of $295 “not ungenerous,” even though it implies a 70% stock plunge, because it values Tesla slightly ahead of world leader Toyota Motor (TM), despite producing a tenth as many cars for now.Then there’s Gordon Johnson. He worked at large investment banks before starting GLJ Research, where he covers 20 stocks. He’s bullish on uranium stocks and bearish on cannabis, but all anyone wants to talk about, he says, is his $67 price target on Tesla. “I’ve gotten death threats,” he says. “Now I don’t even answer the phone when I have unknown calls.”In Johnson’s view, there’s no reason to assume Tesla will do well in adjacent businesses. “You could take McDonald’s and say they’re going to start selling Nikes and chairs and pianos and add those valuations,” he says. In cars, he calculates that the stock price implies a production ramp-up that no car maker could achieve. “Selling cars is not selling iPhones or shirts,” he says.If Tesla’s three-year stock gain of nearly 1,400% has shaken Johnson’s confidence, it doesn’t show. After walking me through his valuation model, he said he’s concerned that his price target might be too high.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"F":0.9,"GM":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861263596,"gmtCreate":1632498527115,"gmtModify":1632715407827,"author":{"id":"4095564389561670","authorId":"4095564389561670","name":"xystarx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ff6886aec0682d84494d058c9b680b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095564389561670","idStr":"4095564389561670"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Please like and comment","listText":"Please like and comment","text":"Please like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861263596","repostId":"1142559059","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1658,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861601039,"gmtCreate":1632489368821,"gmtModify":1632718242966,"author":{"id":"4095564389561670","authorId":"4095564389561670","name":"xystarx","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41ff6886aec0682d84494d058c9b680b","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095564389561670","idStr":"4095564389561670"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"😊","listText":"😊","text":"😊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861601039","repostId":"1142559059","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3250,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
