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RaleighZero
2021-11-18
Buy !! Buy!!
NIO Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>蔚来股票预测：2022 年值得关注的内容</blockquote>
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Buy!!","listText":"Buy !! Buy!!","text":"Buy !! Buy!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878720173","repostId":"1124378970","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124378970","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637229476,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1124378970?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-18 17:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>蔚来股票预测：2022 年值得关注的内容</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124378970","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.We also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.NIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's largest factory and market.NIO stock has had a su","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>NIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.</li> <li>The company is estimated to grow rapidly, as it expands aggressively into Europe next year.</li> <li>We discuss what investors should expect moving ahead in 2022 and beyond.</li> <li>We also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffccc5b06bd64a029e813af7f0627d6e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来是国内领先的纯电动汽车制造商之一。</li><li>该公司预计将快速增长，因为它明年将积极扩展到欧洲。</li><li>我们讨论投资者在 2022 年及以后应该期待什么。</li><li>我们还讨论了投资者现在是否应该增加蔚来股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading new electric vehicle (NEV) players. Despite almost going bankrupt a few years ago, the pure-play NEV player has made a tremendous comeback.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的新型电动汽车（NEV）企业之一。尽管几年前几乎破产，但这家纯粹的新能源汽车公司已经卷土重来。</blockquote></p><p> NIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's (TSLA) largest factory and market.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公布的10月份交付量疲软。尽管如此，该公司年初至今的总交付量在其领先的纯游戏同行中仍然处于领先地位。竞争非常激烈，但蔚来继续快速增长。中国市场的规模和巨大机遇让埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）名言中国将成为特斯拉（TSLA）最大的工厂和市场。</blockquote></p><p> Amid NIO stock's relatively weak performance in 2021 so far, we discuss whether it's time for investors to add the stock.</p><p><blockquote>在蔚来股票2021年迄今为止表现相对疲软的情况下，我们讨论投资者是否到了增持该股的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c286d28256f44ca6fa6deb496e6e2c98\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock YTD performance (as of 15 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票年初至今表现（截至21年11月15日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO stock has had a subpar year in 2021. While it had started the year strongly, its upward momentum collapsed following the rotation from growth to value stock in February 2021. Despite making a remarkable recovery in May, it has remained in a consolidation phase. In contrast, its Chinese NEV peers have managed better performances so far. NIO stock is currently underperforming its leading Chinese NEV peers, and Tesla stock with a YTD return of -16.8%</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股价在 2021 年表现不佳。尽管该公司今年年初表现强劲，但在 2021 年 2 月从成长型股票转向价值型股票后，其上涨势头崩溃。尽管5月份出现了显著复苏，但仍处于盘整阶段。相比之下，迄今为止，其中国新能源汽车同行的表现更好。蔚来股票目前表现逊于中国领先的新能源汽车同行，特斯拉股票年初至今回报率为-16.8%</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Operates in the World's Largest EV Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来在全球最大的电动汽车市场开展业务</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite NIO's surprising struggles, the company can count on its home market, China to support its growth. China is the #1 EV market globally, retaking the lead it briefly lost to Europe in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来汽车面临着令人惊讶的困境，但该公司可以依靠其本土市场中国来支持其增长。中国是全球第一大电动汽车市场，在2020年夺回了短暂输给欧洲的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> BloombergNEF estimated that EV share of total China car sales will reach 25% in 2025, up from just 6% in 2020. China's government projections are slightly more conservative,putting it at 20% by 2025. However, China's EV sales outperformed these estimates as EV share of total sales reached 17.5% in September and averaged 13% YTD through September.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新能源财经估计，到 2025 年，电动汽车在中国汽车总销量中的份额将达到 25%，高于 2020 年的 6%。中国政府的预测稍微保守一些，到2025年将达到20%。然而，中国电动汽车销量超出了这些预期，9 月份电动汽车占总销量的份额达到 17.5%，截至 9 月份年初至今平均为 13%。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, we believe the massive secular tailwinds underpinned by China's national agenda in EV adoption will continue driving growth for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们相信，以中国电动汽车采用国家议程为支撑的巨大长期推动力将继续推动蔚来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company expects China to be its most important market even as it charts its European (the world #2 EV market) expansion. NIO CEO William Li emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司预计中国将成为其最重要的市场，尽管它正在规划其欧洲（世界第二大电动汽车市场）的扩张。蔚来首席执行官李伟明强调：</blockquote></p><p> If we look at the global market, we can see that <i>China is still the biggest auto market and the biggest premium market</i>, so China will still be the most important market for us. But I believe for the markets outside of China in the long term, they should account for around 50% of the -- of all sales of our product. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call) Therefore, we expect China to continue driving the growth of the company moving forward as it scales. NIO highlighted that it currently has a maximum annual production capacity of 600K. Therefore, the company has positioned itself very well to scale its production moving forward. Considering its current YTD deliveries, we believe NIO's market opportunity is still in the early innings.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们看看全球市场，我们可以看到<i>中国仍然是最大的汽车市场和最大的高端市场</i>所以中国仍将是我们最重要的市场。但我相信，从长远来看，中国以外的市场应该占我们产品总销售额的50%左右。（摘自蔚来汽车 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）因此，我们预计随着公司规模的扩大，中国将继续推动公司的增长。蔚来强调，目前最大年产能为60万辆。因此，该公司已经做好了很好的准备，以扩大其生产规模。考虑到蔚来汽车目前的年初交付量，我们认为蔚来汽车的市场机会仍处于早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's Fledgling Market Opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来刚刚起步的市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01decb5c7ce129cf9fc59b2b13ccba85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>China's leading NEV makers YTD October 21 deliveries. Data source: Various company filings, China Passenger Car Association</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国领先的新能源汽车制造商年初至今 10 月 21 日交付。数据来源：各公司备案、乘联会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF) is China's leading NEV maker. Its YTD deliveries (through October 21) highlight the company's undisputed leadership. We also discussed BYD's thesis in a recent article. Notwithstanding, NIO continues to lead its pure-play peers on YTD deliveries. However, the competition is very close. Nonetheless, we believe that China's massive tailwinds driving EV adoptions would continue to benefit NIO and its peers.</p><p><blockquote>比亚迪股份有限公司（OTCPK：BYDDF）是中国领先的新能源汽车制造商。其年初至今的交付成果（截至 10 月 21 日）凸显了该公司无可争议的领导地位。我们还在最近的一篇文章中讨论了比亚迪的论文。尽管如此，蔚来在年初至今的交付量方面继续领先于纯游戏同行。然而，竞争非常激烈。尽管如此，我们相信中国推动电动汽车采用的巨大推动力将继续使蔚来及其同行受益。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, even though NIO reported underwhelming October delivery numbers, we don't believe it's a cause of concern. We will touch more on that later.</p><p><blockquote>此外，尽管蔚来报告的 10 月份交付数据令人失望，但我们认为这并不令人担忧。我们稍后会详细讨论这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d6d8b43b9aff12d916fdb0327e8974\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO YTD October 21 deliveries by month. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来年初至今 10 月 21 日按月交付。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28ea81aba6c5ceedc67d354d0fe0f604\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO quarterly deliveries by model. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>按型号划分的蔚来季度交付量。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can observe the \"abnormally\" weak October delivery numbers of 3.67K. However, we are not unduly concerned about October's numbers. The company telegraphed it needed some downtime to adjust its manufacturing processes to scale ET7 (NIO's upcoming flagship sedan). Notably, the company emphasized that it has \"resumed normal production since late October.\" Li articulated (edited for brevity):</p><p><blockquote>读者可以观察到“异常”疲软的 10 月份交付数量为 3.67K。然而，我们并不过分担心十月份的数字。该公司表示，需要一些停机时间来调整其制造流程，以扩大 ET7（蔚来即将推出的旗舰轿车）的规模。值得注意的是，该公司强调“自10月下旬以来已恢复正常生产”。李阐明（为简洁起见编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> ...To prepare for further capacity expansion and new product introductions including ET7, we implemented upgrades and the restructuring of the manufacturing lines at the Hefei JAC-NIO Advanced Manufacturing Center. <i>Affected by the upgrades and the restructuring, we delivered 3,667 vehicles in October</i>. The plant has resumed normal production since late October. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call) Therefore, we are not too concerned with October's problems. The company guided Q4 deliveries to be between 23.5K to 25.5K. Hence, Q4 deliveries are estimated to be about 24.5K at the midpoint of NIO's guidance. Therefore, QoQ growth is estimated to be flat. Notwithstanding, if we account for October's \"abnormally\" weak numbers, the company expects strong deliveries in November and December. On average, the company expects to deliver about 10.42K units each month for November and December, respectively. That would place it in line with September's record month of 10.63K deliveries. Therefore, the worries about October's weakness have been overblown.</p><p><blockquote>...为进一步扩大产能和引进包括ET7在内的新产品，我们对合肥江淮-蔚来先进制造中心的生产线进行了升级和重组。<i>受升级重组影响，10月份交付3，667辆</i>该厂自10月下旬起已恢复正常生产。（摘自蔚来2021年第三季度财报看涨期权）因此，我们并不太担心10月份的问题。该公司预计第四季度交付量将在 2.35 万至 2.55 万辆之间。因此，在蔚来指导的中点，第四季度交付量估计约为 2.45 万辆。因此，环比增长预计持平。尽管如此，如果我们考虑到 10 月份“异常”疲软的数据，该公司预计 11 月和 12 月的交付量将强劲。平均而言，该公司预计 11 月和 12 月每月交付约 10.42,000 辆。这将使其与 9 月份创纪录的 10,63,000 辆交付量保持一致。因此，对10月份疲软的担忧被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's expected deliveries for FY21 would amount to about 90.9K units. Compared to its annual production capacity of 600K units, it's clear that NIO expects to ramp production rapidly moving forward. While it might take some time to reach the 600K annualized run rate, NIO is preparing to launch 3 new products (including ET7) based on its NIO Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022. Therefore, the company is actively refreshing its slate and expects to continue its rapid delivery growth next year.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车预计 2021 财年交付量约为 9.09 万辆。与60万辆的年产能相比，蔚来显然预计未来将迅速提高产量。虽然达到60万辆的年化运行率可能需要一些时间，但蔚来正准备在2022年推出3款基于其蔚来技术平台2.0的新产品（包括ET7）。因此，该公司正在积极更新其名单，并预计明年交付量将继续快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company also expects to navigate the chip supply crunch well. It has also impacted NIO in the near term. However, NIO demonstrated its capabilities on its in-house technology as Li explained that they have managed to get around those problems. Li added:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司还预计能够很好地应对芯片供应紧缩。它也在短期内影响了蔚来。然而，蔚来展示了其内部技术的能力，李解释说，他们已经设法解决了这些问题。李补充道：</blockquote></p><p> I would like to specifically mention that because the <i>many domain controllers in our vehicles are actually developed by ourselves in-house</i>. So if there is a shortage of certain chips in the domain controllers, our teams have the capability to quickly find the alternative and do the rapid validation and faster production of those vehicles and the chips. So because of these capabilities, we have already <i>resolved some chip shortage situations happened to our vehicles</i>. (from NIO's FQ3 earnings call) <b>Consensus Estimates Also Agree With NIO's Rapid Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote>我想特别提一下，因为<i>我们车辆中的许多域控制器实际上是我们自己在内部开发的</i>因此，如果域控制器中的某些芯片短缺，我们的团队有能力快速找到替代方案，并对这些车辆和芯片进行快速验证和更快的生产。因此，由于这些能力，我们已经<i>解决了我们车辆出现的一些芯片短缺情况</i>.（摘自蔚来第三季度盈利看涨期权）<b>共识估计也同意蔚来的快速扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75908e4cc1b0e008a565a8faaa67a434\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO LTM revenue & operating margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来LTM收入和营业利润率。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/956abb3d98a0a3907c217e0c2e4b00c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO est. revenue mean consensus & est. EBIT margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来是。收入平均值共识和预计。息税前利润率。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can quickly glean from the first chart above that NIO has expanded its top line rapidly. Notably, it has also managed to improve its operating leverage tremendously as it scales. As explained, we believe that NIO is very early on in its profitability growth. Given that it has an annualized production capacity of 600K, NIO is still expected to grow rapidly. The company is estimated to grow its top line by a phenomenal CAGR of 77.7% through FY23.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以从上面的第一张图表中很快了解到，蔚来已经迅速扩大了其营收。值得注意的是，随着规模的扩大，它还设法大大提高了运营杠杆。如前所述，我们认为蔚来的盈利增长处于早期阶段。鉴于其年产能为60万辆，蔚来仍有望快速增长。据估计，该公司通过2023财年将以惊人的 77.7% 的复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, its EBIT consensus estimates also point to a lower EBIT loss margin of 2.1% in FY22. NIO is estimated to turn EBIT profitable by FY23, with an est. EBIT margin of 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，其息税前利润共识估计也表明 2022 财年息税前利润亏损率较低，为 2.1%。2023财年预计蔚来将实现息税前利润，预计为 est。息税前利润率为 3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, NIO investors can continue to expect the company to gain traction in its European journey and its home market. In addition, we encourage investors to pay close attention to its new product launches in 2022 as the company expects a strong delivery cadence moving forward. Notwithstanding, based on FQ4'21's guidance, November and December delivery numbers should also be impressive.</p><p><blockquote>因此，蔚来投资者可以继续期待该公司在欧洲之旅和国内市场获得牵引力。此外，我们鼓励投资者密切关注其 2022 年的新产品发布，因为该公司预计未来交付节奏将强劲。尽管如此，根据 Q4’21 的指导，11 月和 12 月的交付数据也应该令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, is NIO Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，蔚来股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b943b23fe0e9f66e7db0040c15948ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock EV/NTM Revenue 3Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票EV/NTM收入3年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 7.9x. It has come a long way down from its January highs. Moreover, it's also just about 14% above its 3Y mean. Therefore, we believe that NIO stock's valuation seems attractive now. It's a much stronger company than it was three years ago. In addition, it has also significantly improved its operating leverage. Coupled with strong secular drivers underpinning its rapid growth ahead, we believe long-term investors would do well to sit on it. If NIO can continue to build on its delivery cadence, we think that the stock will be re-rated moving ahead in FY22. Therefore, investors should capitalize on its weakness now to add NIO stock to their portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股票的EV/NTM收入为7.9倍。它已经从一月份的高点下跌了很长一段时间。此外，它也仅比 3 年平均水平高出约 14%。因此，我们认为蔚来股票的估值现在看起来很有吸引力。这是一家比三年前强大得多的公司。此外，还大幅提升了经营杠杆。再加上支撑其未来快速增长的强大长期驱动力，我们相信长期投资者会做得很好。如果蔚来能够继续保持其交付节奏，我们认为该股将在 2022 财年重新评级。因此，投资者现在应该利用其弱点，将蔚来股票纳入其投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, we<i>rate NIO stock at Buy</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们<i>将蔚来股票评级为买入</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>蔚来股票预测：2022 年值得关注的内容</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>蔚来股票预测：2022 年值得关注的内容</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-18 17:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>NIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.</li> <li>The company is estimated to grow rapidly, as it expands aggressively into Europe next year.</li> <li>We discuss what investors should expect moving ahead in 2022 and beyond.</li> <li>We also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffccc5b06bd64a029e813af7f0627d6e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来是国内领先的纯电动汽车制造商之一。</li><li>该公司预计将快速增长，因为它明年将积极扩展到欧洲。</li><li>我们讨论投资者在 2022 年及以后应该期待什么。</li><li>我们还讨论了投资者现在是否应该增加蔚来股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading new electric vehicle (NEV) players. Despite almost going bankrupt a few years ago, the pure-play NEV player has made a tremendous comeback.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的新型电动汽车（NEV）企业之一。尽管几年前几乎破产，但这家纯粹的新能源汽车公司已经卷土重来。</blockquote></p><p> NIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's (TSLA) largest factory and market.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公布的10月份交付量疲软。尽管如此，该公司年初至今的总交付量在其领先的纯游戏同行中仍然处于领先地位。竞争非常激烈，但蔚来继续快速增长。中国市场的规模和巨大机遇让埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）名言中国将成为特斯拉（TSLA）最大的工厂和市场。</blockquote></p><p> Amid NIO stock's relatively weak performance in 2021 so far, we discuss whether it's time for investors to add the stock.</p><p><blockquote>在蔚来股票2021年迄今为止表现相对疲软的情况下，我们讨论投资者是否到了增持该股的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c286d28256f44ca6fa6deb496e6e2c98\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock YTD performance (as of 15 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票年初至今表现（截至21年11月15日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO stock has had a subpar year in 2021. While it had started the year strongly, its upward momentum collapsed following the rotation from growth to value stock in February 2021. Despite making a remarkable recovery in May, it has remained in a consolidation phase. In contrast, its Chinese NEV peers have managed better performances so far. NIO stock is currently underperforming its leading Chinese NEV peers, and Tesla stock with a YTD return of -16.8%</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股价在 2021 年表现不佳。尽管该公司今年年初表现强劲，但在 2021 年 2 月从成长型股票转向价值型股票后，其上涨势头崩溃。尽管5月份出现了显著复苏，但仍处于盘整阶段。相比之下，迄今为止，其中国新能源汽车同行的表现更好。蔚来股票目前表现逊于中国领先的新能源汽车同行，特斯拉股票年初至今回报率为-16.8%</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Operates in the World's Largest EV Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来在全球最大的电动汽车市场开展业务</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite NIO's surprising struggles, the company can count on its home market, China to support its growth. China is the #1 EV market globally, retaking the lead it briefly lost to Europe in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来汽车面临着令人惊讶的困境，但该公司可以依靠其本土市场中国来支持其增长。中国是全球第一大电动汽车市场，在2020年夺回了短暂输给欧洲的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> BloombergNEF estimated that EV share of total China car sales will reach 25% in 2025, up from just 6% in 2020. China's government projections are slightly more conservative,putting it at 20% by 2025. However, China's EV sales outperformed these estimates as EV share of total sales reached 17.5% in September and averaged 13% YTD through September.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新能源财经估计，到 2025 年，电动汽车在中国汽车总销量中的份额将达到 25%，高于 2020 年的 6%。中国政府的预测稍微保守一些，到2025年将达到20%。然而，中国电动汽车销量超出了这些预期，9 月份电动汽车占总销量的份额达到 17.5%，截至 9 月份年初至今平均为 13%。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, we believe the massive secular tailwinds underpinned by China's national agenda in EV adoption will continue driving growth for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们相信，以中国电动汽车采用国家议程为支撑的巨大长期推动力将继续推动蔚来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company expects China to be its most important market even as it charts its European (the world #2 EV market) expansion. NIO CEO William Li emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司预计中国将成为其最重要的市场，尽管它正在规划其欧洲（世界第二大电动汽车市场）的扩张。蔚来首席执行官李伟明强调：</blockquote></p><p> If we look at the global market, we can see that <i>China is still the biggest auto market and the biggest premium market</i>, so China will still be the most important market for us. But I believe for the markets outside of China in the long term, they should account for around 50% of the -- of all sales of our product. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call) Therefore, we expect China to continue driving the growth of the company moving forward as it scales. NIO highlighted that it currently has a maximum annual production capacity of 600K. Therefore, the company has positioned itself very well to scale its production moving forward. Considering its current YTD deliveries, we believe NIO's market opportunity is still in the early innings.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们看看全球市场，我们可以看到<i>中国仍然是最大的汽车市场和最大的高端市场</i>所以中国仍将是我们最重要的市场。但我相信，从长远来看，中国以外的市场应该占我们产品总销售额的50%左右。（摘自蔚来汽车 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）因此，我们预计随着公司规模的扩大，中国将继续推动公司的增长。蔚来强调，目前最大年产能为60万辆。因此，该公司已经做好了很好的准备，以扩大其生产规模。考虑到蔚来汽车目前的年初交付量，我们认为蔚来汽车的市场机会仍处于早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's Fledgling Market Opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来刚刚起步的市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01decb5c7ce129cf9fc59b2b13ccba85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>China's leading NEV makers YTD October 21 deliveries. Data source: Various company filings, China Passenger Car Association</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国领先的新能源汽车制造商年初至今 10 月 21 日交付。数据来源：各公司备案、乘联会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF) is China's leading NEV maker. Its YTD deliveries (through October 21) highlight the company's undisputed leadership. We also discussed BYD's thesis in a recent article. Notwithstanding, NIO continues to lead its pure-play peers on YTD deliveries. However, the competition is very close. Nonetheless, we believe that China's massive tailwinds driving EV adoptions would continue to benefit NIO and its peers.</p><p><blockquote>比亚迪股份有限公司（OTCPK：BYDDF）是中国领先的新能源汽车制造商。其年初至今的交付成果（截至 10 月 21 日）凸显了该公司无可争议的领导地位。我们还在最近的一篇文章中讨论了比亚迪的论文。尽管如此，蔚来在年初至今的交付量方面继续领先于纯游戏同行。然而，竞争非常激烈。尽管如此，我们相信中国推动电动汽车采用的巨大推动力将继续使蔚来及其同行受益。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, even though NIO reported underwhelming October delivery numbers, we don't believe it's a cause of concern. We will touch more on that later.</p><p><blockquote>此外，尽管蔚来报告的 10 月份交付数据令人失望，但我们认为这并不令人担忧。我们稍后会详细讨论这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d6d8b43b9aff12d916fdb0327e8974\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO YTD October 21 deliveries by month. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来年初至今 10 月 21 日按月交付。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28ea81aba6c5ceedc67d354d0fe0f604\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO quarterly deliveries by model. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>按型号划分的蔚来季度交付量。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can observe the \"abnormally\" weak October delivery numbers of 3.67K. However, we are not unduly concerned about October's numbers. The company telegraphed it needed some downtime to adjust its manufacturing processes to scale ET7 (NIO's upcoming flagship sedan). Notably, the company emphasized that it has \"resumed normal production since late October.\" Li articulated (edited for brevity):</p><p><blockquote>读者可以观察到“异常”疲软的 10 月份交付数量为 3.67K。然而，我们并不过分担心十月份的数字。该公司表示，需要一些停机时间来调整其制造流程，以扩大 ET7（蔚来即将推出的旗舰轿车）的规模。值得注意的是，该公司强调“自10月下旬以来已恢复正常生产”。李阐明（为简洁起见编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> ...To prepare for further capacity expansion and new product introductions including ET7, we implemented upgrades and the restructuring of the manufacturing lines at the Hefei JAC-NIO Advanced Manufacturing Center. <i>Affected by the upgrades and the restructuring, we delivered 3,667 vehicles in October</i>. The plant has resumed normal production since late October. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call) Therefore, we are not too concerned with October's problems. The company guided Q4 deliveries to be between 23.5K to 25.5K. Hence, Q4 deliveries are estimated to be about 24.5K at the midpoint of NIO's guidance. Therefore, QoQ growth is estimated to be flat. Notwithstanding, if we account for October's \"abnormally\" weak numbers, the company expects strong deliveries in November and December. On average, the company expects to deliver about 10.42K units each month for November and December, respectively. That would place it in line with September's record month of 10.63K deliveries. Therefore, the worries about October's weakness have been overblown.</p><p><blockquote>...为进一步扩大产能和引进包括ET7在内的新产品，我们对合肥江淮-蔚来先进制造中心的生产线进行了升级和重组。<i>受升级重组影响，10月份交付3，667辆</i>该厂自10月下旬起已恢复正常生产。（摘自蔚来2021年第三季度财报看涨期权）因此，我们并不太担心10月份的问题。该公司预计第四季度交付量将在 2.35 万至 2.55 万辆之间。因此，在蔚来指导的中点，第四季度交付量估计约为 2.45 万辆。因此，环比增长预计持平。尽管如此，如果我们考虑到 10 月份“异常”疲软的数据，该公司预计 11 月和 12 月的交付量将强劲。平均而言，该公司预计 11 月和 12 月每月交付约 10.42,000 辆。这将使其与 9 月份创纪录的 10,63,000 辆交付量保持一致。因此，对10月份疲软的担忧被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's expected deliveries for FY21 would amount to about 90.9K units. Compared to its annual production capacity of 600K units, it's clear that NIO expects to ramp production rapidly moving forward. While it might take some time to reach the 600K annualized run rate, NIO is preparing to launch 3 new products (including ET7) based on its NIO Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022. Therefore, the company is actively refreshing its slate and expects to continue its rapid delivery growth next year.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车预计 2021 财年交付量约为 9.09 万辆。与60万辆的年产能相比，蔚来显然预计未来将迅速提高产量。虽然达到60万辆的年化运行率可能需要一些时间，但蔚来正准备在2022年推出3款基于其蔚来技术平台2.0的新产品（包括ET7）。因此，该公司正在积极更新其名单，并预计明年交付量将继续快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company also expects to navigate the chip supply crunch well. It has also impacted NIO in the near term. However, NIO demonstrated its capabilities on its in-house technology as Li explained that they have managed to get around those problems. Li added:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司还预计能够很好地应对芯片供应紧缩。它也在短期内影响了蔚来。然而，蔚来展示了其内部技术的能力，李解释说，他们已经设法解决了这些问题。李补充道：</blockquote></p><p> I would like to specifically mention that because the <i>many domain controllers in our vehicles are actually developed by ourselves in-house</i>. So if there is a shortage of certain chips in the domain controllers, our teams have the capability to quickly find the alternative and do the rapid validation and faster production of those vehicles and the chips. So because of these capabilities, we have already <i>resolved some chip shortage situations happened to our vehicles</i>. (from NIO's FQ3 earnings call) <b>Consensus Estimates Also Agree With NIO's Rapid Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote>我想特别提一下，因为<i>我们车辆中的许多域控制器实际上是我们自己在内部开发的</i>因此，如果域控制器中的某些芯片短缺，我们的团队有能力快速找到替代方案，并对这些车辆和芯片进行快速验证和更快的生产。因此，由于这些能力，我们已经<i>解决了我们车辆出现的一些芯片短缺情况</i>.（摘自蔚来第三季度盈利看涨期权）<b>共识估计也同意蔚来的快速扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75908e4cc1b0e008a565a8faaa67a434\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO LTM revenue & operating margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来LTM收入和营业利润率。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/956abb3d98a0a3907c217e0c2e4b00c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO est. revenue mean consensus & est. EBIT margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来是。收入平均值共识和预计。息税前利润率。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can quickly glean from the first chart above that NIO has expanded its top line rapidly. Notably, it has also managed to improve its operating leverage tremendously as it scales. As explained, we believe that NIO is very early on in its profitability growth. Given that it has an annualized production capacity of 600K, NIO is still expected to grow rapidly. The company is estimated to grow its top line by a phenomenal CAGR of 77.7% through FY23.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以从上面的第一张图表中很快了解到，蔚来已经迅速扩大了其营收。值得注意的是，随着规模的扩大，它还设法大大提高了运营杠杆。如前所述，我们认为蔚来的盈利增长处于早期阶段。鉴于其年产能为60万辆，蔚来仍有望快速增长。据估计，该公司通过2023财年将以惊人的 77.7% 的复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, its EBIT consensus estimates also point to a lower EBIT loss margin of 2.1% in FY22. NIO is estimated to turn EBIT profitable by FY23, with an est. EBIT margin of 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，其息税前利润共识估计也表明 2022 财年息税前利润亏损率较低，为 2.1%。2023财年预计蔚来将实现息税前利润，预计为 est。息税前利润率为 3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, NIO investors can continue to expect the company to gain traction in its European journey and its home market. In addition, we encourage investors to pay close attention to its new product launches in 2022 as the company expects a strong delivery cadence moving forward. Notwithstanding, based on FQ4'21's guidance, November and December delivery numbers should also be impressive.</p><p><blockquote>因此，蔚来投资者可以继续期待该公司在欧洲之旅和国内市场获得牵引力。此外，我们鼓励投资者密切关注其 2022 年的新产品发布，因为该公司预计未来交付节奏将强劲。尽管如此，根据 Q4’21 的指导，11 月和 12 月的交付数据也应该令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, is NIO Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，蔚来股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b943b23fe0e9f66e7db0040c15948ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock EV/NTM Revenue 3Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票EV/NTM收入3年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 7.9x. It has come a long way down from its January highs. Moreover, it's also just about 14% above its 3Y mean. Therefore, we believe that NIO stock's valuation seems attractive now. It's a much stronger company than it was three years ago. In addition, it has also significantly improved its operating leverage. Coupled with strong secular drivers underpinning its rapid growth ahead, we believe long-term investors would do well to sit on it. If NIO can continue to build on its delivery cadence, we think that the stock will be re-rated moving ahead in FY22. Therefore, investors should capitalize on its weakness now to add NIO stock to their portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股票的EV/NTM收入为7.9倍。它已经从一月份的高点下跌了很长一段时间。此外，它也仅比 3 年平均水平高出约 14%。因此，我们认为蔚来股票的估值现在看起来很有吸引力。这是一家比三年前强大得多的公司。此外，还大幅提升了经营杠杆。再加上支撑其未来快速增长的强大长期驱动力，我们相信长期投资者会做得很好。如果蔚来能够继续保持其交付节奏，我们认为该股将在 2022 财年重新评级。因此，投资者现在应该利用其弱点，将蔚来股票纳入其投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, we<i>rate NIO stock at Buy</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们<i>将蔚来股票评级为买入</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470158-nio-stock-forecast\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470158-nio-stock-forecast","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124378970","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.\nThe company is estimated to grow rapidly, as it expands aggressively into Europe next year.\nWe discuss what investors should expect moving ahead in 2022 and beyond.\nWe also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.\n\nAndy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nNIO Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading new electric vehicle (NEV) players. Despite almost going bankrupt a few years ago, the pure-play NEV player has made a tremendous comeback.\nNIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's (TSLA) largest factory and market.\nAmid NIO stock's relatively weak performance in 2021 so far, we discuss whether it's time for investors to add the stock.\nNIO Stock YTD Performance\nNIO stock YTD performance (as of 15 November 21).\nNIO stock has had a subpar year in 2021. While it had started the year strongly, its upward momentum collapsed following the rotation from growth to value stock in February 2021. Despite making a remarkable recovery in May, it has remained in a consolidation phase. In contrast, its Chinese NEV peers have managed better performances so far. NIO stock is currently underperforming its leading Chinese NEV peers, and Tesla stock with a YTD return of -16.8%\nNIO Operates in the World's Largest EV Market\nDespite NIO's surprising struggles, the company can count on its home market, China to support its growth. China is the #1 EV market globally, retaking the lead it briefly lost to Europe in 2020.\nBloombergNEF estimated that EV share of total China car sales will reach 25% in 2025, up from just 6% in 2020. China's government projections are slightly more conservative,putting it at 20% by 2025. However, China's EV sales outperformed these estimates as EV share of total sales reached 17.5% in September and averaged 13% YTD through September.\nHence, we believe the massive secular tailwinds underpinned by China's national agenda in EV adoption will continue driving growth for NIO.\nNotably, the company expects China to be its most important market even as it charts its European (the world #2 EV market) expansion. NIO CEO William Li emphasized:\n\n If we look at the global market, we can see that\n China is still the biggest auto market and the biggest premium market, so China will still be the most important market for us. But I believe for the markets outside of China in the long term, they should account for around 50% of the -- of all sales of our product. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nTherefore, we expect China to continue driving the growth of the company moving forward as it scales. NIO highlighted that it currently has a maximum annual production capacity of 600K. Therefore, the company has positioned itself very well to scale its production moving forward. Considering its current YTD deliveries, we believe NIO's market opportunity is still in the early innings.\nNIO's Fledgling Market Opportunity\nChina's leading NEV makers YTD October 21 deliveries. Data source: Various company filings, China Passenger Car Association\nBYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF) is China's leading NEV maker. Its YTD deliveries (through October 21) highlight the company's undisputed leadership. We also discussed BYD's thesis in a recent article. Notwithstanding, NIO continues to lead its pure-play peers on YTD deliveries. However, the competition is very close. Nonetheless, we believe that China's massive tailwinds driving EV adoptions would continue to benefit NIO and its peers.\nIn addition, even though NIO reported underwhelming October delivery numbers, we don't believe it's a cause of concern. We will touch more on that later.\nNIO YTD October 21 deliveries by month. Data source: Company filings\nNIO quarterly deliveries by model. Data source: Company filings\nReaders can observe the \"abnormally\" weak October delivery numbers of 3.67K. However, we are not unduly concerned about October's numbers. The company telegraphed it needed some downtime to adjust its manufacturing processes to scale ET7 (NIO's upcoming flagship sedan). Notably, the company emphasized that it has \"resumed normal production since late October.\" Li articulated (edited for brevity):\n\n ...To prepare for further capacity expansion and new product introductions including ET7, we implemented upgrades and the restructuring of the manufacturing lines at the Hefei JAC-NIO Advanced Manufacturing Center.\n Affected by the upgrades and the restructuring, we delivered 3,667 vehicles in October. The plant has resumed normal production since late October. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nTherefore, we are not too concerned with October's problems. The company guided Q4 deliveries to be between 23.5K to 25.5K. Hence, Q4 deliveries are estimated to be about 24.5K at the midpoint of NIO's guidance. Therefore, QoQ growth is estimated to be flat. Notwithstanding, if we account for October's \"abnormally\" weak numbers, the company expects strong deliveries in November and December. On average, the company expects to deliver about 10.42K units each month for November and December, respectively. That would place it in line with September's record month of 10.63K deliveries. Therefore, the worries about October's weakness have been overblown.\nNIO's expected deliveries for FY21 would amount to about 90.9K units. Compared to its annual production capacity of 600K units, it's clear that NIO expects to ramp production rapidly moving forward. While it might take some time to reach the 600K annualized run rate, NIO is preparing to launch 3 new products (including ET7) based on its NIO Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022. Therefore, the company is actively refreshing its slate and expects to continue its rapid delivery growth next year.\nNotably, the company also expects to navigate the chip supply crunch well. It has also impacted NIO in the near term. However, NIO demonstrated its capabilities on its in-house technology as Li explained that they have managed to get around those problems. Li added:\n\n I would like to specifically mention that because the\n many domain controllers in our vehicles are actually developed by ourselves in-house. So if there is a shortage of certain chips in the domain controllers, our teams have the capability to quickly find the alternative and do the rapid validation and faster production of those vehicles and the chips. So because of these capabilities, we have already\n resolved some chip shortage situations happened to our vehicles. (from NIO's FQ3 earnings call)\n\nConsensus Estimates Also Agree With NIO's Rapid Expansion\nNIO LTM revenue & operating margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNIO est. revenue mean consensus & est. EBIT margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nReaders can quickly glean from the first chart above that NIO has expanded its top line rapidly. Notably, it has also managed to improve its operating leverage tremendously as it scales. As explained, we believe that NIO is very early on in its profitability growth. Given that it has an annualized production capacity of 600K, NIO is still expected to grow rapidly. The company is estimated to grow its top line by a phenomenal CAGR of 77.7% through FY23.\nNotably, its EBIT consensus estimates also point to a lower EBIT loss margin of 2.1% in FY22. NIO is estimated to turn EBIT profitable by FY23, with an est. EBIT margin of 3.2%.\nTherefore, NIO investors can continue to expect the company to gain traction in its European journey and its home market. In addition, we encourage investors to pay close attention to its new product launches in 2022 as the company expects a strong delivery cadence moving forward. Notwithstanding, based on FQ4'21's guidance, November and December delivery numbers should also be impressive.\nSo, is NIO Stock a Buy Now?\nNIO stock EV/NTM Revenue 3Y mean.\nNIO stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 7.9x. It has come a long way down from its January highs. Moreover, it's also just about 14% above its 3Y mean. Therefore, we believe that NIO stock's valuation seems attractive now. It's a much stronger company than it was three years ago. In addition, it has also significantly improved its operating leverage. Coupled with strong secular drivers underpinning its rapid growth ahead, we believe long-term investors would do well to sit on it. If NIO can continue to build on its delivery cadence, we think that the stock will be re-rated moving ahead in FY22. Therefore, investors should capitalize on its weakness now to add NIO stock to their portfolios.\nConsequently, werate NIO stock at Buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":878720173,"gmtCreate":1637235350979,"gmtModify":1637238083836,"author":{"id":"4095738673613450","authorId":"4095738673613450","name":"RaleighZero","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095738673613450","authorIdStr":"4095738673613450"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy !! Buy!!","listText":"Buy !! Buy!!","text":"Buy !! Buy!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878720173","repostId":"1124378970","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1124378970","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637229476,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1124378970?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-18 17:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NIO Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>蔚来股票预测：2022 年值得关注的内容</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1124378970","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.We also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.NIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's largest factory and market.NIO stock has had a su","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>NIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.</li> <li>The company is estimated to grow rapidly, as it expands aggressively into Europe next year.</li> <li>We discuss what investors should expect moving ahead in 2022 and beyond.</li> <li>We also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffccc5b06bd64a029e813af7f0627d6e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来是国内领先的纯电动汽车制造商之一。</li><li>该公司预计将快速增长，因为它明年将积极扩展到欧洲。</li><li>我们讨论投资者在 2022 年及以后应该期待什么。</li><li>我们还讨论了投资者现在是否应该增加蔚来股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading new electric vehicle (NEV) players. Despite almost going bankrupt a few years ago, the pure-play NEV player has made a tremendous comeback.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的新型电动汽车（NEV）企业之一。尽管几年前几乎破产，但这家纯粹的新能源汽车公司已经卷土重来。</blockquote></p><p> NIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's (TSLA) largest factory and market.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公布的10月份交付量疲软。尽管如此，该公司年初至今的总交付量在其领先的纯游戏同行中仍然处于领先地位。竞争非常激烈，但蔚来继续快速增长。中国市场的规模和巨大机遇让埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）名言中国将成为特斯拉（TSLA）最大的工厂和市场。</blockquote></p><p> Amid NIO stock's relatively weak performance in 2021 so far, we discuss whether it's time for investors to add the stock.</p><p><blockquote>在蔚来股票2021年迄今为止表现相对疲软的情况下，我们讨论投资者是否到了增持该股的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c286d28256f44ca6fa6deb496e6e2c98\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock YTD performance (as of 15 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票年初至今表现（截至21年11月15日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO stock has had a subpar year in 2021. While it had started the year strongly, its upward momentum collapsed following the rotation from growth to value stock in February 2021. Despite making a remarkable recovery in May, it has remained in a consolidation phase. In contrast, its Chinese NEV peers have managed better performances so far. NIO stock is currently underperforming its leading Chinese NEV peers, and Tesla stock with a YTD return of -16.8%</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股价在 2021 年表现不佳。尽管该公司今年年初表现强劲，但在 2021 年 2 月从成长型股票转向价值型股票后，其上涨势头崩溃。尽管5月份出现了显著复苏，但仍处于盘整阶段。相比之下，迄今为止，其中国新能源汽车同行的表现更好。蔚来股票目前表现逊于中国领先的新能源汽车同行，特斯拉股票年初至今回报率为-16.8%</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Operates in the World's Largest EV Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来在全球最大的电动汽车市场开展业务</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite NIO's surprising struggles, the company can count on its home market, China to support its growth. China is the #1 EV market globally, retaking the lead it briefly lost to Europe in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来汽车面临着令人惊讶的困境，但该公司可以依靠其本土市场中国来支持其增长。中国是全球第一大电动汽车市场，在2020年夺回了短暂输给欧洲的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> BloombergNEF estimated that EV share of total China car sales will reach 25% in 2025, up from just 6% in 2020. China's government projections are slightly more conservative,putting it at 20% by 2025. However, China's EV sales outperformed these estimates as EV share of total sales reached 17.5% in September and averaged 13% YTD through September.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新能源财经估计，到 2025 年，电动汽车在中国汽车总销量中的份额将达到 25%，高于 2020 年的 6%。中国政府的预测稍微保守一些，到2025年将达到20%。然而，中国电动汽车销量超出了这些预期，9 月份电动汽车占总销量的份额达到 17.5%，截至 9 月份年初至今平均为 13%。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, we believe the massive secular tailwinds underpinned by China's national agenda in EV adoption will continue driving growth for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们相信，以中国电动汽车采用国家议程为支撑的巨大长期推动力将继续推动蔚来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company expects China to be its most important market even as it charts its European (the world #2 EV market) expansion. NIO CEO William Li emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司预计中国将成为其最重要的市场，尽管它正在规划其欧洲（世界第二大电动汽车市场）的扩张。蔚来首席执行官李伟明强调：</blockquote></p><p> If we look at the global market, we can see that <i>China is still the biggest auto market and the biggest premium market</i>, so China will still be the most important market for us. But I believe for the markets outside of China in the long term, they should account for around 50% of the -- of all sales of our product. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call) Therefore, we expect China to continue driving the growth of the company moving forward as it scales. NIO highlighted that it currently has a maximum annual production capacity of 600K. Therefore, the company has positioned itself very well to scale its production moving forward. Considering its current YTD deliveries, we believe NIO's market opportunity is still in the early innings.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们看看全球市场，我们可以看到<i>中国仍然是最大的汽车市场和最大的高端市场</i>所以中国仍将是我们最重要的市场。但我相信，从长远来看，中国以外的市场应该占我们产品总销售额的50%左右。（摘自蔚来汽车 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）因此，我们预计随着公司规模的扩大，中国将继续推动公司的增长。蔚来强调，目前最大年产能为60万辆。因此，该公司已经做好了很好的准备，以扩大其生产规模。考虑到蔚来汽车目前的年初交付量，我们认为蔚来汽车的市场机会仍处于早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's Fledgling Market Opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来刚刚起步的市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01decb5c7ce129cf9fc59b2b13ccba85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>China's leading NEV makers YTD October 21 deliveries. Data source: Various company filings, China Passenger Car Association</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国领先的新能源汽车制造商年初至今 10 月 21 日交付。数据来源：各公司备案、乘联会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF) is China's leading NEV maker. Its YTD deliveries (through October 21) highlight the company's undisputed leadership. We also discussed BYD's thesis in a recent article. Notwithstanding, NIO continues to lead its pure-play peers on YTD deliveries. However, the competition is very close. Nonetheless, we believe that China's massive tailwinds driving EV adoptions would continue to benefit NIO and its peers.</p><p><blockquote>比亚迪股份有限公司（OTCPK：BYDDF）是中国领先的新能源汽车制造商。其年初至今的交付成果（截至 10 月 21 日）凸显了该公司无可争议的领导地位。我们还在最近的一篇文章中讨论了比亚迪的论文。尽管如此，蔚来在年初至今的交付量方面继续领先于纯游戏同行。然而，竞争非常激烈。尽管如此，我们相信中国推动电动汽车采用的巨大推动力将继续使蔚来及其同行受益。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, even though NIO reported underwhelming October delivery numbers, we don't believe it's a cause of concern. We will touch more on that later.</p><p><blockquote>此外，尽管蔚来报告的 10 月份交付数据令人失望，但我们认为这并不令人担忧。我们稍后会详细讨论这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d6d8b43b9aff12d916fdb0327e8974\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO YTD October 21 deliveries by month. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来年初至今 10 月 21 日按月交付。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28ea81aba6c5ceedc67d354d0fe0f604\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO quarterly deliveries by model. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>按型号划分的蔚来季度交付量。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can observe the \"abnormally\" weak October delivery numbers of 3.67K. However, we are not unduly concerned about October's numbers. The company telegraphed it needed some downtime to adjust its manufacturing processes to scale ET7 (NIO's upcoming flagship sedan). Notably, the company emphasized that it has \"resumed normal production since late October.\" Li articulated (edited for brevity):</p><p><blockquote>读者可以观察到“异常”疲软的 10 月份交付数量为 3.67K。然而，我们并不过分担心十月份的数字。该公司表示，需要一些停机时间来调整其制造流程，以扩大 ET7（蔚来即将推出的旗舰轿车）的规模。值得注意的是，该公司强调“自10月下旬以来已恢复正常生产”。李阐明（为简洁起见编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> ...To prepare for further capacity expansion and new product introductions including ET7, we implemented upgrades and the restructuring of the manufacturing lines at the Hefei JAC-NIO Advanced Manufacturing Center. <i>Affected by the upgrades and the restructuring, we delivered 3,667 vehicles in October</i>. The plant has resumed normal production since late October. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call) Therefore, we are not too concerned with October's problems. The company guided Q4 deliveries to be between 23.5K to 25.5K. Hence, Q4 deliveries are estimated to be about 24.5K at the midpoint of NIO's guidance. Therefore, QoQ growth is estimated to be flat. Notwithstanding, if we account for October's \"abnormally\" weak numbers, the company expects strong deliveries in November and December. On average, the company expects to deliver about 10.42K units each month for November and December, respectively. That would place it in line with September's record month of 10.63K deliveries. Therefore, the worries about October's weakness have been overblown.</p><p><blockquote>...为进一步扩大产能和引进包括ET7在内的新产品，我们对合肥江淮-蔚来先进制造中心的生产线进行了升级和重组。<i>受升级重组影响，10月份交付3，667辆</i>该厂自10月下旬起已恢复正常生产。（摘自蔚来2021年第三季度财报看涨期权）因此，我们并不太担心10月份的问题。该公司预计第四季度交付量将在 2.35 万至 2.55 万辆之间。因此，在蔚来指导的中点，第四季度交付量估计约为 2.45 万辆。因此，环比增长预计持平。尽管如此，如果我们考虑到 10 月份“异常”疲软的数据，该公司预计 11 月和 12 月的交付量将强劲。平均而言，该公司预计 11 月和 12 月每月交付约 10.42,000 辆。这将使其与 9 月份创纪录的 10,63,000 辆交付量保持一致。因此，对10月份疲软的担忧被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's expected deliveries for FY21 would amount to about 90.9K units. Compared to its annual production capacity of 600K units, it's clear that NIO expects to ramp production rapidly moving forward. While it might take some time to reach the 600K annualized run rate, NIO is preparing to launch 3 new products (including ET7) based on its NIO Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022. Therefore, the company is actively refreshing its slate and expects to continue its rapid delivery growth next year.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车预计 2021 财年交付量约为 9.09 万辆。与60万辆的年产能相比，蔚来显然预计未来将迅速提高产量。虽然达到60万辆的年化运行率可能需要一些时间，但蔚来正准备在2022年推出3款基于其蔚来技术平台2.0的新产品（包括ET7）。因此，该公司正在积极更新其名单，并预计明年交付量将继续快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company also expects to navigate the chip supply crunch well. It has also impacted NIO in the near term. However, NIO demonstrated its capabilities on its in-house technology as Li explained that they have managed to get around those problems. Li added:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司还预计能够很好地应对芯片供应紧缩。它也在短期内影响了蔚来。然而，蔚来展示了其内部技术的能力，李解释说，他们已经设法解决了这些问题。李补充道：</blockquote></p><p> I would like to specifically mention that because the <i>many domain controllers in our vehicles are actually developed by ourselves in-house</i>. So if there is a shortage of certain chips in the domain controllers, our teams have the capability to quickly find the alternative and do the rapid validation and faster production of those vehicles and the chips. So because of these capabilities, we have already <i>resolved some chip shortage situations happened to our vehicles</i>. (from NIO's FQ3 earnings call) <b>Consensus Estimates Also Agree With NIO's Rapid Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote>我想特别提一下，因为<i>我们车辆中的许多域控制器实际上是我们自己在内部开发的</i>因此，如果域控制器中的某些芯片短缺，我们的团队有能力快速找到替代方案，并对这些车辆和芯片进行快速验证和更快的生产。因此，由于这些能力，我们已经<i>解决了我们车辆出现的一些芯片短缺情况</i>.（摘自蔚来第三季度盈利看涨期权）<b>共识估计也同意蔚来的快速扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75908e4cc1b0e008a565a8faaa67a434\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO LTM revenue & operating margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来LTM收入和营业利润率。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/956abb3d98a0a3907c217e0c2e4b00c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO est. revenue mean consensus & est. EBIT margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来是。收入平均值共识和预计。息税前利润率。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can quickly glean from the first chart above that NIO has expanded its top line rapidly. Notably, it has also managed to improve its operating leverage tremendously as it scales. As explained, we believe that NIO is very early on in its profitability growth. Given that it has an annualized production capacity of 600K, NIO is still expected to grow rapidly. The company is estimated to grow its top line by a phenomenal CAGR of 77.7% through FY23.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以从上面的第一张图表中很快了解到，蔚来已经迅速扩大了其营收。值得注意的是，随着规模的扩大，它还设法大大提高了运营杠杆。如前所述，我们认为蔚来的盈利增长处于早期阶段。鉴于其年产能为60万辆，蔚来仍有望快速增长。据估计，该公司通过2023财年将以惊人的 77.7% 的复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, its EBIT consensus estimates also point to a lower EBIT loss margin of 2.1% in FY22. NIO is estimated to turn EBIT profitable by FY23, with an est. EBIT margin of 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，其息税前利润共识估计也表明 2022 财年息税前利润亏损率较低，为 2.1%。2023财年预计蔚来将实现息税前利润，预计为 est。息税前利润率为 3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, NIO investors can continue to expect the company to gain traction in its European journey and its home market. In addition, we encourage investors to pay close attention to its new product launches in 2022 as the company expects a strong delivery cadence moving forward. Notwithstanding, based on FQ4'21's guidance, November and December delivery numbers should also be impressive.</p><p><blockquote>因此，蔚来投资者可以继续期待该公司在欧洲之旅和国内市场获得牵引力。此外，我们鼓励投资者密切关注其 2022 年的新产品发布，因为该公司预计未来交付节奏将强劲。尽管如此，根据 Q4’21 的指导，11 月和 12 月的交付数据也应该令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, is NIO Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，蔚来股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b943b23fe0e9f66e7db0040c15948ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock EV/NTM Revenue 3Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票EV/NTM收入3年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 7.9x. It has come a long way down from its January highs. Moreover, it's also just about 14% above its 3Y mean. Therefore, we believe that NIO stock's valuation seems attractive now. It's a much stronger company than it was three years ago. In addition, it has also significantly improved its operating leverage. Coupled with strong secular drivers underpinning its rapid growth ahead, we believe long-term investors would do well to sit on it. If NIO can continue to build on its delivery cadence, we think that the stock will be re-rated moving ahead in FY22. Therefore, investors should capitalize on its weakness now to add NIO stock to their portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股票的EV/NTM收入为7.9倍。它已经从一月份的高点下跌了很长一段时间。此外，它也仅比 3 年平均水平高出约 14%。因此，我们认为蔚来股票的估值现在看起来很有吸引力。这是一家比三年前强大得多的公司。此外，还大幅提升了经营杠杆。再加上支撑其未来快速增长的强大长期驱动力，我们相信长期投资者会做得很好。如果蔚来能够继续保持其交付节奏，我们认为该股将在 2022 财年重新评级。因此，投资者现在应该利用其弱点，将蔚来股票纳入其投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, we<i>rate NIO stock at Buy</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们<i>将蔚来股票评级为买入</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NIO Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>蔚来股票预测：2022 年值得关注的内容</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNIO Stock Forecast: What To Watch For In 2022<blockquote>蔚来股票预测：2022 年值得关注的内容</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-18 17:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>NIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.</li> <li>The company is estimated to grow rapidly, as it expands aggressively into Europe next year.</li> <li>We discuss what investors should expect moving ahead in 2022 and beyond.</li> <li>We also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffccc5b06bd64a029e813af7f0627d6e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1152\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>蔚来是国内领先的纯电动汽车制造商之一。</li><li>该公司预计将快速增长，因为它明年将积极扩展到欧洲。</li><li>我们讨论投资者在 2022 年及以后应该期待什么。</li><li>我们还讨论了投资者现在是否应该增加蔚来股票。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Andy Feng/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> NIO Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading new electric vehicle (NEV) players. Despite almost going bankrupt a few years ago, the pure-play NEV player has made a tremendous comeback.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来（蔚来）是中国领先的新型电动汽车（NEV）企业之一。尽管几年前几乎破产，但这家纯粹的新能源汽车公司已经卷土重来。</blockquote></p><p> NIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's (TSLA) largest factory and market.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来公布的10月份交付量疲软。尽管如此，该公司年初至今的总交付量在其领先的纯游戏同行中仍然处于领先地位。竞争非常激烈，但蔚来继续快速增长。中国市场的规模和巨大机遇让埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）名言中国将成为特斯拉（TSLA）最大的工厂和市场。</blockquote></p><p> Amid NIO stock's relatively weak performance in 2021 so far, we discuss whether it's time for investors to add the stock.</p><p><blockquote>在蔚来股票2021年迄今为止表现相对疲软的情况下，我们讨论投资者是否到了增持该股的时候了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Stock YTD Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来股票年初至今表现</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c286d28256f44ca6fa6deb496e6e2c98\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"331\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock YTD performance (as of 15 November 21).</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票年初至今表现（截至21年11月15日）。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> NIO stock has had a subpar year in 2021. While it had started the year strongly, its upward momentum collapsed following the rotation from growth to value stock in February 2021. Despite making a remarkable recovery in May, it has remained in a consolidation phase. In contrast, its Chinese NEV peers have managed better performances so far. NIO stock is currently underperforming its leading Chinese NEV peers, and Tesla stock with a YTD return of -16.8%</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股价在 2021 年表现不佳。尽管该公司今年年初表现强劲，但在 2021 年 2 月从成长型股票转向价值型股票后，其上涨势头崩溃。尽管5月份出现了显著复苏，但仍处于盘整阶段。相比之下，迄今为止，其中国新能源汽车同行的表现更好。蔚来股票目前表现逊于中国领先的新能源汽车同行，特斯拉股票年初至今回报率为-16.8%</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO Operates in the World's Largest EV Market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来在全球最大的电动汽车市场开展业务</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite NIO's surprising struggles, the company can count on its home market, China to support its growth. China is the #1 EV market globally, retaking the lead it briefly lost to Europe in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>尽管蔚来汽车面临着令人惊讶的困境，但该公司可以依靠其本土市场中国来支持其增长。中国是全球第一大电动汽车市场，在2020年夺回了短暂输给欧洲的领先地位。</blockquote></p><p> BloombergNEF estimated that EV share of total China car sales will reach 25% in 2025, up from just 6% in 2020. China's government projections are slightly more conservative,putting it at 20% by 2025. However, China's EV sales outperformed these estimates as EV share of total sales reached 17.5% in September and averaged 13% YTD through September.</p><p><blockquote>彭博新能源财经估计，到 2025 年，电动汽车在中国汽车总销量中的份额将达到 25%，高于 2020 年的 6%。中国政府的预测稍微保守一些，到2025年将达到20%。然而，中国电动汽车销量超出了这些预期，9 月份电动汽车占总销量的份额达到 17.5%，截至 9 月份年初至今平均为 13%。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, we believe the massive secular tailwinds underpinned by China's national agenda in EV adoption will continue driving growth for NIO.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们相信，以中国电动汽车采用国家议程为支撑的巨大长期推动力将继续推动蔚来的增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company expects China to be its most important market even as it charts its European (the world #2 EV market) expansion. NIO CEO William Li emphasized:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司预计中国将成为其最重要的市场，尽管它正在规划其欧洲（世界第二大电动汽车市场）的扩张。蔚来首席执行官李伟明强调：</blockquote></p><p> If we look at the global market, we can see that <i>China is still the biggest auto market and the biggest premium market</i>, so China will still be the most important market for us. But I believe for the markets outside of China in the long term, they should account for around 50% of the -- of all sales of our product. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call) Therefore, we expect China to continue driving the growth of the company moving forward as it scales. NIO highlighted that it currently has a maximum annual production capacity of 600K. Therefore, the company has positioned itself very well to scale its production moving forward. Considering its current YTD deliveries, we believe NIO's market opportunity is still in the early innings.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们看看全球市场，我们可以看到<i>中国仍然是最大的汽车市场和最大的高端市场</i>所以中国仍将是我们最重要的市场。但我相信，从长远来看，中国以外的市场应该占我们产品总销售额的50%左右。（摘自蔚来汽车 2021 年第三季度盈利看涨期权）因此，我们预计随着公司规模的扩大，中国将继续推动公司的增长。蔚来强调，目前最大年产能为60万辆。因此，该公司已经做好了很好的准备，以扩大其生产规模。考虑到蔚来汽车目前的年初交付量，我们认为蔚来汽车的市场机会仍处于早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>NIO's Fledgling Market Opportunity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>蔚来刚刚起步的市场机会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01decb5c7ce129cf9fc59b2b13ccba85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>China's leading NEV makers YTD October 21 deliveries. Data source: Various company filings, China Passenger Car Association</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>中国领先的新能源汽车制造商年初至今 10 月 21 日交付。数据来源：各公司备案、乘联会</span></p></blockquote></p><p> BYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF) is China's leading NEV maker. Its YTD deliveries (through October 21) highlight the company's undisputed leadership. We also discussed BYD's thesis in a recent article. Notwithstanding, NIO continues to lead its pure-play peers on YTD deliveries. However, the competition is very close. Nonetheless, we believe that China's massive tailwinds driving EV adoptions would continue to benefit NIO and its peers.</p><p><blockquote>比亚迪股份有限公司（OTCPK：BYDDF）是中国领先的新能源汽车制造商。其年初至今的交付成果（截至 10 月 21 日）凸显了该公司无可争议的领导地位。我们还在最近的一篇文章中讨论了比亚迪的论文。尽管如此，蔚来在年初至今的交付量方面继续领先于纯游戏同行。然而，竞争非常激烈。尽管如此，我们相信中国推动电动汽车采用的巨大推动力将继续使蔚来及其同行受益。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, even though NIO reported underwhelming October delivery numbers, we don't believe it's a cause of concern. We will touch more on that later.</p><p><blockquote>此外，尽管蔚来报告的 10 月份交付数据令人失望，但我们认为这并不令人担忧。我们稍后会详细讨论这个问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1d6d8b43b9aff12d916fdb0327e8974\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO YTD October 21 deliveries by month. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来年初至今 10 月 21 日按月交付。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28ea81aba6c5ceedc67d354d0fe0f604\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO quarterly deliveries by model. Data source: Company filings</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>按型号划分的蔚来季度交付量。数据来源：公司文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can observe the \"abnormally\" weak October delivery numbers of 3.67K. However, we are not unduly concerned about October's numbers. The company telegraphed it needed some downtime to adjust its manufacturing processes to scale ET7 (NIO's upcoming flagship sedan). Notably, the company emphasized that it has \"resumed normal production since late October.\" Li articulated (edited for brevity):</p><p><blockquote>读者可以观察到“异常”疲软的 10 月份交付数量为 3.67K。然而，我们并不过分担心十月份的数字。该公司表示，需要一些停机时间来调整其制造流程，以扩大 ET7（蔚来即将推出的旗舰轿车）的规模。值得注意的是，该公司强调“自10月下旬以来已恢复正常生产”。李阐明（为简洁起见编辑）：</blockquote></p><p> ...To prepare for further capacity expansion and new product introductions including ET7, we implemented upgrades and the restructuring of the manufacturing lines at the Hefei JAC-NIO Advanced Manufacturing Center. <i>Affected by the upgrades and the restructuring, we delivered 3,667 vehicles in October</i>. The plant has resumed normal production since late October. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call) Therefore, we are not too concerned with October's problems. The company guided Q4 deliveries to be between 23.5K to 25.5K. Hence, Q4 deliveries are estimated to be about 24.5K at the midpoint of NIO's guidance. Therefore, QoQ growth is estimated to be flat. Notwithstanding, if we account for October's \"abnormally\" weak numbers, the company expects strong deliveries in November and December. On average, the company expects to deliver about 10.42K units each month for November and December, respectively. That would place it in line with September's record month of 10.63K deliveries. Therefore, the worries about October's weakness have been overblown.</p><p><blockquote>...为进一步扩大产能和引进包括ET7在内的新产品，我们对合肥江淮-蔚来先进制造中心的生产线进行了升级和重组。<i>受升级重组影响，10月份交付3，667辆</i>该厂自10月下旬起已恢复正常生产。（摘自蔚来2021年第三季度财报看涨期权）因此，我们并不太担心10月份的问题。该公司预计第四季度交付量将在 2.35 万至 2.55 万辆之间。因此，在蔚来指导的中点，第四季度交付量估计约为 2.45 万辆。因此，环比增长预计持平。尽管如此，如果我们考虑到 10 月份“异常”疲软的数据，该公司预计 11 月和 12 月的交付量将强劲。平均而言，该公司预计 11 月和 12 月每月交付约 10.42,000 辆。这将使其与 9 月份创纪录的 10,63,000 辆交付量保持一致。因此，对10月份疲软的担忧被夸大了。</blockquote></p><p> NIO's expected deliveries for FY21 would amount to about 90.9K units. Compared to its annual production capacity of 600K units, it's clear that NIO expects to ramp production rapidly moving forward. While it might take some time to reach the 600K annualized run rate, NIO is preparing to launch 3 new products (including ET7) based on its NIO Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022. Therefore, the company is actively refreshing its slate and expects to continue its rapid delivery growth next year.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来汽车预计 2021 财年交付量约为 9.09 万辆。与60万辆的年产能相比，蔚来显然预计未来将迅速提高产量。虽然达到60万辆的年化运行率可能需要一些时间，但蔚来正准备在2022年推出3款基于其蔚来技术平台2.0的新产品（包括ET7）。因此，该公司正在积极更新其名单，并预计明年交付量将继续快速增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, the company also expects to navigate the chip supply crunch well. It has also impacted NIO in the near term. However, NIO demonstrated its capabilities on its in-house technology as Li explained that they have managed to get around those problems. Li added:</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，该公司还预计能够很好地应对芯片供应紧缩。它也在短期内影响了蔚来。然而，蔚来展示了其内部技术的能力，李解释说，他们已经设法解决了这些问题。李补充道：</blockquote></p><p> I would like to specifically mention that because the <i>many domain controllers in our vehicles are actually developed by ourselves in-house</i>. So if there is a shortage of certain chips in the domain controllers, our teams have the capability to quickly find the alternative and do the rapid validation and faster production of those vehicles and the chips. So because of these capabilities, we have already <i>resolved some chip shortage situations happened to our vehicles</i>. (from NIO's FQ3 earnings call) <b>Consensus Estimates Also Agree With NIO's Rapid Expansion</b></p><p><blockquote>我想特别提一下，因为<i>我们车辆中的许多域控制器实际上是我们自己在内部开发的</i>因此，如果域控制器中的某些芯片短缺，我们的团队有能力快速找到替代方案，并对这些车辆和芯片进行快速验证和更快的生产。因此，由于这些能力，我们已经<i>解决了我们车辆出现的一些芯片短缺情况</i>.（摘自蔚来第三季度盈利看涨期权）<b>共识估计也同意蔚来的快速扩张</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75908e4cc1b0e008a565a8faaa67a434\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO LTM revenue & operating margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来LTM收入和营业利润率。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/956abb3d98a0a3907c217e0c2e4b00c9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO est. revenue mean consensus & est. EBIT margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来是。收入平均值共识和预计。息税前利润率。数据来源：S&P Capital IQ</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Readers can quickly glean from the first chart above that NIO has expanded its top line rapidly. Notably, it has also managed to improve its operating leverage tremendously as it scales. As explained, we believe that NIO is very early on in its profitability growth. Given that it has an annualized production capacity of 600K, NIO is still expected to grow rapidly. The company is estimated to grow its top line by a phenomenal CAGR of 77.7% through FY23.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以从上面的第一张图表中很快了解到，蔚来已经迅速扩大了其营收。值得注意的是，随着规模的扩大，它还设法大大提高了运营杠杆。如前所述，我们认为蔚来的盈利增长处于早期阶段。鉴于其年产能为60万辆，蔚来仍有望快速增长。据估计，该公司通过2023财年将以惊人的 77.7% 的复合年增长率增长。</blockquote></p><p> Notably, its EBIT consensus estimates also point to a lower EBIT loss margin of 2.1% in FY22. NIO is estimated to turn EBIT profitable by FY23, with an est. EBIT margin of 3.2%.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，其息税前利润共识估计也表明 2022 财年息税前利润亏损率较低，为 2.1%。2023财年预计蔚来将实现息税前利润，预计为 est。息税前利润率为 3.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, NIO investors can continue to expect the company to gain traction in its European journey and its home market. In addition, we encourage investors to pay close attention to its new product launches in 2022 as the company expects a strong delivery cadence moving forward. Notwithstanding, based on FQ4'21's guidance, November and December delivery numbers should also be impressive.</p><p><blockquote>因此，蔚来投资者可以继续期待该公司在欧洲之旅和国内市场获得牵引力。此外，我们鼓励投资者密切关注其 2022 年的新产品发布，因为该公司预计未来交付节奏将强劲。尽管如此，根据 Q4’21 的指导，11 月和 12 月的交付数据也应该令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So, is NIO Stock a Buy Now?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那么，蔚来股票现在值得买入吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b943b23fe0e9f66e7db0040c15948ce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NIO stock EV/NTM Revenue 3Y mean.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>蔚来股票EV/NTM收入3年平均值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> NIO stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 7.9x. It has come a long way down from its January highs. Moreover, it's also just about 14% above its 3Y mean. Therefore, we believe that NIO stock's valuation seems attractive now. It's a much stronger company than it was three years ago. In addition, it has also significantly improved its operating leverage. Coupled with strong secular drivers underpinning its rapid growth ahead, we believe long-term investors would do well to sit on it. If NIO can continue to build on its delivery cadence, we think that the stock will be re-rated moving ahead in FY22. Therefore, investors should capitalize on its weakness now to add NIO stock to their portfolios.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来股票的EV/NTM收入为7.9倍。它已经从一月份的高点下跌了很长一段时间。此外，它也仅比 3 年平均水平高出约 14%。因此，我们认为蔚来股票的估值现在看起来很有吸引力。这是一家比三年前强大得多的公司。此外，还大幅提升了经营杠杆。再加上支撑其未来快速增长的强大长期驱动力，我们相信长期投资者会做得很好。如果蔚来能够继续保持其交付节奏，我们认为该股将在 2022 财年重新评级。因此，投资者现在应该利用其弱点，将蔚来股票纳入其投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> Consequently, we<i>rate NIO stock at Buy</i>.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们<i>将蔚来股票评级为买入</i>.</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470158-nio-stock-forecast\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4470158-nio-stock-forecast","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124378970","content_text":"Summary\n\nNIO is one of the leading pure-play new electric vehicle makers in China.\nThe company is estimated to grow rapidly, as it expands aggressively into Europe next year.\nWe discuss what investors should expect moving ahead in 2022 and beyond.\nWe also discuss whether investors should add NIO stock now.\n\nAndy Feng/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nNIO Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading new electric vehicle (NEV) players. Despite almost going bankrupt a few years ago, the pure-play NEV player has made a tremendous comeback.\nNIO posted weak October deliveries. Nonetheless, the company is still leading total deliveries YTD among its leading pure-play peers. The competition is very close, but NIO continues to grow rapidly. The scale and immense opportunities of the Chinese market made Elon Musk famously proclaim that China will be Tesla's (TSLA) largest factory and market.\nAmid NIO stock's relatively weak performance in 2021 so far, we discuss whether it's time for investors to add the stock.\nNIO Stock YTD Performance\nNIO stock YTD performance (as of 15 November 21).\nNIO stock has had a subpar year in 2021. While it had started the year strongly, its upward momentum collapsed following the rotation from growth to value stock in February 2021. Despite making a remarkable recovery in May, it has remained in a consolidation phase. In contrast, its Chinese NEV peers have managed better performances so far. NIO stock is currently underperforming its leading Chinese NEV peers, and Tesla stock with a YTD return of -16.8%\nNIO Operates in the World's Largest EV Market\nDespite NIO's surprising struggles, the company can count on its home market, China to support its growth. China is the #1 EV market globally, retaking the lead it briefly lost to Europe in 2020.\nBloombergNEF estimated that EV share of total China car sales will reach 25% in 2025, up from just 6% in 2020. China's government projections are slightly more conservative,putting it at 20% by 2025. However, China's EV sales outperformed these estimates as EV share of total sales reached 17.5% in September and averaged 13% YTD through September.\nHence, we believe the massive secular tailwinds underpinned by China's national agenda in EV adoption will continue driving growth for NIO.\nNotably, the company expects China to be its most important market even as it charts its European (the world #2 EV market) expansion. NIO CEO William Li emphasized:\n\n If we look at the global market, we can see that\n China is still the biggest auto market and the biggest premium market, so China will still be the most important market for us. But I believe for the markets outside of China in the long term, they should account for around 50% of the -- of all sales of our product. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nTherefore, we expect China to continue driving the growth of the company moving forward as it scales. NIO highlighted that it currently has a maximum annual production capacity of 600K. Therefore, the company has positioned itself very well to scale its production moving forward. Considering its current YTD deliveries, we believe NIO's market opportunity is still in the early innings.\nNIO's Fledgling Market Opportunity\nChina's leading NEV makers YTD October 21 deliveries. Data source: Various company filings, China Passenger Car Association\nBYD Company Limited (OTCPK:BYDDF) is China's leading NEV maker. Its YTD deliveries (through October 21) highlight the company's undisputed leadership. We also discussed BYD's thesis in a recent article. Notwithstanding, NIO continues to lead its pure-play peers on YTD deliveries. However, the competition is very close. Nonetheless, we believe that China's massive tailwinds driving EV adoptions would continue to benefit NIO and its peers.\nIn addition, even though NIO reported underwhelming October delivery numbers, we don't believe it's a cause of concern. We will touch more on that later.\nNIO YTD October 21 deliveries by month. Data source: Company filings\nNIO quarterly deliveries by model. Data source: Company filings\nReaders can observe the \"abnormally\" weak October delivery numbers of 3.67K. However, we are not unduly concerned about October's numbers. The company telegraphed it needed some downtime to adjust its manufacturing processes to scale ET7 (NIO's upcoming flagship sedan). Notably, the company emphasized that it has \"resumed normal production since late October.\" Li articulated (edited for brevity):\n\n ...To prepare for further capacity expansion and new product introductions including ET7, we implemented upgrades and the restructuring of the manufacturing lines at the Hefei JAC-NIO Advanced Manufacturing Center.\n Affected by the upgrades and the restructuring, we delivered 3,667 vehicles in October. The plant has resumed normal production since late October. (from NIO's FQ3'21 earnings call)\n\nTherefore, we are not too concerned with October's problems. The company guided Q4 deliveries to be between 23.5K to 25.5K. Hence, Q4 deliveries are estimated to be about 24.5K at the midpoint of NIO's guidance. Therefore, QoQ growth is estimated to be flat. Notwithstanding, if we account for October's \"abnormally\" weak numbers, the company expects strong deliveries in November and December. On average, the company expects to deliver about 10.42K units each month for November and December, respectively. That would place it in line with September's record month of 10.63K deliveries. Therefore, the worries about October's weakness have been overblown.\nNIO's expected deliveries for FY21 would amount to about 90.9K units. Compared to its annual production capacity of 600K units, it's clear that NIO expects to ramp production rapidly moving forward. While it might take some time to reach the 600K annualized run rate, NIO is preparing to launch 3 new products (including ET7) based on its NIO Technology Platform 2.0 in 2022. Therefore, the company is actively refreshing its slate and expects to continue its rapid delivery growth next year.\nNotably, the company also expects to navigate the chip supply crunch well. It has also impacted NIO in the near term. However, NIO demonstrated its capabilities on its in-house technology as Li explained that they have managed to get around those problems. Li added:\n\n I would like to specifically mention that because the\n many domain controllers in our vehicles are actually developed by ourselves in-house. So if there is a shortage of certain chips in the domain controllers, our teams have the capability to quickly find the alternative and do the rapid validation and faster production of those vehicles and the chips. So because of these capabilities, we have already\n resolved some chip shortage situations happened to our vehicles. (from NIO's FQ3 earnings call)\n\nConsensus Estimates Also Agree With NIO's Rapid Expansion\nNIO LTM revenue & operating margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nNIO est. revenue mean consensus & est. EBIT margins. Data source: S&P Capital IQ\nReaders can quickly glean from the first chart above that NIO has expanded its top line rapidly. Notably, it has also managed to improve its operating leverage tremendously as it scales. As explained, we believe that NIO is very early on in its profitability growth. Given that it has an annualized production capacity of 600K, NIO is still expected to grow rapidly. The company is estimated to grow its top line by a phenomenal CAGR of 77.7% through FY23.\nNotably, its EBIT consensus estimates also point to a lower EBIT loss margin of 2.1% in FY22. NIO is estimated to turn EBIT profitable by FY23, with an est. EBIT margin of 3.2%.\nTherefore, NIO investors can continue to expect the company to gain traction in its European journey and its home market. In addition, we encourage investors to pay close attention to its new product launches in 2022 as the company expects a strong delivery cadence moving forward. Notwithstanding, based on FQ4'21's guidance, November and December delivery numbers should also be impressive.\nSo, is NIO Stock a Buy Now?\nNIO stock EV/NTM Revenue 3Y mean.\nNIO stock is trading at an EV/NTM Revenue of 7.9x. It has come a long way down from its January highs. Moreover, it's also just about 14% above its 3Y mean. Therefore, we believe that NIO stock's valuation seems attractive now. It's a much stronger company than it was three years ago. In addition, it has also significantly improved its operating leverage. Coupled with strong secular drivers underpinning its rapid growth ahead, we believe long-term investors would do well to sit on it. If NIO can continue to build on its delivery cadence, we think that the stock will be re-rated moving ahead in FY22. Therefore, investors should capitalize on its weakness now to add NIO stock to their portfolios.\nConsequently, werate NIO stock at Buy.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
