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2021-11-30

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-25

$Assertio Holdings, Inc.(ASRT)$Bullish engulfing.Lets see if there is more volume when the marketopens.

2021-11-05

this is the reason why it dumped

Ocugen: WHO Approval For Covaxin Is Potentially A Red Herring For Investors<blockquote>Ocugen：世卫组织批准科瓦克辛可能是投资者的转移注意力</blockquote>

2021-11-03

$Birks(BGI)$Hmm another parabolic move on 3M TF

2021-11-03

$Baosheng Media Group Holdings(BAOS)$Parabolic move on smaller time frame?

2021-11-03

$Baosheng Media Group Holdings(BAOS)$Parabolic move?

2021-11-01

The from WHO will be on Nov 3.

Ocugen shares jumped 8.8% in premarket trading<blockquote>Ocugen 股价在盘前交易中上涨 8.8%</blockquote>

2021-10-26

$Histogenics(OCGN)$Looking for more upside while waiting for WHO approval

2021-10-15

$Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$Will it continue to bounce back after creating a higher low from yesterday’s candle?

2021-10-15

$New(NGD)$Should stay above the support (blue line). Then we will see uptrend to retest the resistance line. DYOR

2021-10-14

$Histogenics(OCGN)$Ocugen Inc. shares were trading higher since tuesday after Indian Government approved Bharat Biotech’s Covid-19 vaccine Covaxin, for children between the ages of 2 and 18. We will see a retest on previous high 18.77

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASRT\">$Assertio Holdings, Inc.(ASRT)$</a>Bullish engulfing.Lets see if there is more volume when the marketopens.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASRT\">$Assertio Holdings, Inc.(ASRT)$</a>Bullish engulfing.Lets see if there is more volume when the marketopens.","text":"$Assertio Holdings, Inc.(ASRT)$Bullish engulfing.Lets see if there is more volume when the marketopens.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9399d3060c23665d1cf40f5c800f5567","width":"1125","height":"2839"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877906693","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846974760,"gmtCreate":1636043917939,"gmtModify":1636043918042,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095811186634540","idStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"this is the reason why it dumped","listText":"this is the reason why it dumped","text":"this is the reason why it dumped","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846974760","repostId":"1168874793","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168874793","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636035446,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1168874793?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 22:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ocugen: WHO Approval For Covaxin Is Potentially A Red Herring For Investors<blockquote>Ocugen：世卫组织批准科瓦克辛可能是投资者的转移注意力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168874793","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nOcugen missed the opportunity to grab an Emergency Use Authorization for Covaxin in the US ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Ocugen missed the opportunity to grab an Emergency Use Authorization for Covaxin in the US earlier this year, but it could still gain an approval via a pivotal immuno-bridging study.</li>  <li>Meanwhile, Bharat has received WHO approval for Emergency Use Listing, meaning the vaccine can be distributed around the world - but that doesn't directly benefit Ocugen.</li>  <li>There are numerous possibilities in play, and Ocugen has no shortage of backers and shorts - the stock is up &gt;4,000% in the past year, but has trodden water for several months.</li>  <li>It's hard to determine what may be in store next for Ocugen shareholders, but if I were one, I'd be holding and hoping. I recap the full story below.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25648bf13e5cb82880f748129c72261c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>今年早些时候，Ocugen错过了在美国获得科瓦克辛紧急使用授权的机会，但它仍然可以通过一项关键的免疫桥接研究获得批准。</li><li>与此同时，Bharat 已获得世卫组织紧急使用清单批准，这意味着该疫苗可以在世界各地分发，但这并没有直接使 Ocugen 受益。</li><li>有许多可能性在发挥作用，Ocugen 并不缺乏支持者和空头 - 该股在过去一年中上涨了 4,000% 以上，但几个月来一直在下跌。</li><li>很难确定 Ocugen 股东接下来会发生什么，但如果我是其中之一，我会持有并希望。我在下面回顾一下整个故事。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Klaus Vedfelt/数字视觉，盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Bharat Biotech received an approval from the World Health Organization (\"WHO\") today to join the Emergency Use List (\"EUL\") for vaccines against COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>巴拉特生物技术公司今天获得世界卫生组织（“世卫组织”）的批准，加入新冠肺炎疫苗的紧急使用清单（“EUL”）。</blockquote></p><p> As most investors will know, Ocugen (OCGN) holds the rights to distribute Covaxin in the US on behalf of Bharat, in exchange for a 45% share of all profits. It also has a similar deal in place for Canada, standing to earn 55% of all profits.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者都知道，Ocugen (OCGN) 拥有代表 Bharat 在美国分销科瓦克辛的权利，以换取所有利润的 45% 份额。它在加拿大也有类似的交易，有望获得所有利润的55%。</blockquote></p><p> Ocugen investors and shorts will be nervously waiting to see how today's news affects the biotech's share price, which initially jumped to $16, but has fallen to $12 post-market.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 投资者和空头将紧张地等待今天的消息将如何影响这家生物技术公司的股价，该公司的股价最初跃升至 16 美元，但盘后已跌至 12 美元。</blockquote></p><p> In this post I recap the full story, updated from my&nbsp;last post in June, and offer some ways to think about Ocugen's share price in the short and long term.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇文章中，我回顾了我六月份上一篇文章更新的完整故事，并提供了一些短期和长期思考 Ocugen 股价的方法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ocugen Stock Jumps From $0.5 To $16 In 3 Months On Bharat COVID Vaccine Deal - The Story So Far</b></p><p><blockquote><b>由于 Bharat COVID 疫苗交易，Ocugen 股价在 3 个月内从 0.5 美元跃升至 16 美元 - 迄今为止的故事</b></blockquote></p><p> Ocugen is one of the more bizarre biotech stories of 2021. In mid-December 2020, its shares were trading &lt;$0.5, as the company struggled to develop a preclinical portfolio of gene therapy drug candidates targeting eye disease, having abandoned development of its lead candidate OCU300 in Graft vs Host Disease (\"GvHD\").</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen是2021年更离奇的生物技术故事之一。2020 年 12 月中旬，其股价低于 0.5 美元，因为该公司正在努力开发针对眼部疾病的基因治疗候选药物的临床前组合，放弃了移植物抗宿主病的主要候选药物 OCU300 的开发（“GvHD”）。</blockquote></p><p> A delisting from the Nasdaq looked a likely outcome for the company, but then Ocugen's fortunes changed dramatically - the biotech&nbsp;became a partner&nbsp;of Bharat Biotech, developer of the whole-virion inactivated vaccine candidate Covaxin, agreeing to help the Indian Pharma commercialise Covaxin in the US and Canada. Overnight, Ocugen's share price jumped to a price of $3, and by early February, it was trading at $16.</p><p><blockquote>从纳斯达克退市看起来是该公司可能的结果，但随后 Ocugen 的命运发生了巨大变化——该生物技术公司成为全病毒体灭活疫苗候选药物 Covaxin 的开发商 Bharat Biotech 的合作伙伴，同意帮助印度制药公司将 Covaxin 商业化在美国和加拿大。一夜之间，Ocugen 的股价跃升至 3 美元，到 2 月初，其交易价格为 16 美元。</blockquote></p><p> I covered the full story in a&nbsp;note on Ocugen&nbsp;back in June, when Ocugen's shares were trading in a slightly more down-to-earth range of $6 - $10. At that time, the key question was whether Covaxin would receive an Emergency Use Authorization (\"EUA\") from the FDA, allowing it to be marketed and sold in the US.</p><p><blockquote>早在 6 月份，我就在 Ocugen 的一篇笔记中讲述了整个故事，当时 Ocugen 的股价在 6 美元至 10 美元的范围内稍微实在一些。当时的关键问题是科瓦克辛是否会获得FDA的紧急使用授权（“EUA”），允许其在美国上市销售。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately for Ocugen investors, delays in Bharat's trials of Covaxin in India, where outbreaks of COVID had suddenly become widespread, meant that Ocugen could not get positive Phase 3 trial data in front of the FDA in time for a deadline imposed by the US government - after which it would not accept any further EUA requests for COVID-19 vaccines for the remainder of the pandemic for those companies that have not already begun discussions with the FDA.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Ocugen 投资者来说不幸的是，Bharat 在印度进行的科瓦克辛试验的延误意味着 Ocugen 无法在美国政府规定的最后期限前及时向 FDA 获得积极的 3 期试验数据 - 此后，对于那些尚未开始与 FDA 讨论的公司，它将不再接受任何进一步的 EUA 请求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ocugen And Bharat Stay The Course - Trials Reveal Strong Efficacy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Ocugen 和 Bharat 坚持到底 - 试验显示强效疗效</b></blockquote></p><p> The bad news about an EUA in the US did not deter Ocugen, Bharat, or Ocugen's investors, however. Despite heavy short interest, as many market watchers concluded Ocugen's share price would be decimated without an EUA for Covaxin in the US, Ocugen management felt that there were other options on the table, including obtaining an EUA in Canada, which falls under its agreement with Bharat, allowing Ocugen to earn 45% of all revenues earned in the region.</p><p><blockquote>然而，有关美国EUA的坏消息并没有阻止Ocugen、Bharat或Ocugen的投资者。尽管空头兴趣浓厚，但许多市场观察人士得出结论，如果没有美国科瓦克辛的 EUA，Ocugen 的股价将会大幅下跌，Ocugen 管理层认为还有其他选择，包括在加拿大获得 EUA，这属于其与 Bharat 的协议范围，使 Ocugen 能够赚取该地区所有收入的 45%。</blockquote></p><p> The results of Bharat's ~@5k patient Phase 3 trial in India also came out positive.</p><p><blockquote>Bharat在印度的~@5k患者3期试验结果也呈阳性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/862520ed53c876fb96840a3cb9a7a6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Summary of results of Bharat Biotech Phase 3 trial of Covaxin. Source: Ocugen Corporate Presentation.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Bharat Biotech科瓦克辛3期试验结果总结。资料来源：Ocugen公司演示文稿。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see above, Bharat's Covaxin (finally) delivered an efficacy readout of 77.8%, 93.4% efficacy against severe disease - and 65.2% efficacy against the delta variant - the most devastating of all the COVID strains. Furthermore, the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases advised that a novel vaccine adjuvant developed in Kansas, US with NIAID support, Alhydroxiquim-II, enhanced the overall efficacy of Covaxin.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们在上面看到的，巴拉特的科瓦克辛（最终）提供了77.8%的功效读数，对严重疾病的功效为93.4%，对德尔塔变异毒株的功效为65.2%，是所有新冠病毒毒株中最具破坏性的。此外，美国国家过敏和传染病研究所建议，在NIAID支持下，美国堪萨斯州开发的一种新型疫苗佐剂Alhydroxiquim-II增强了科瓦克辛的总体疗效。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bharat Pursues WHO Emergency Use Listing Whilst Ocugen Looks To Canada</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Bharat 寻求世卫组织紧急使用清单，而 Ocugen 则将目光投向加拿大</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> These results, as strong as they are - and it should be noted the efficacy of Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech's (BNTX) messenger-RNA Comirnaty vaccine against the Delta variant has&nbsp;dropped as low as 39%&nbsp;in studies in Israel - they arrived too late to help Ocugen secure an EUA in the US.</p><p><blockquote>这些结果尽管很有力——应该指出的是，辉瑞 (PFE) 和 BioNTech (BNTX) 信使 RNA Comirnaty 疫苗对德尔塔变异毒株病毒的效力在以色列的研究中已降至 39%——但它们来得太晚了，无法帮助 Ocugen 在美国获得 EUA。</blockquote></p><p> Ocugen turned its attention to Canada,announcing&nbsp;a rolling submission to Health Canada on July 15 through its affiliate, Vaccigen, Ltd<b>,</b>allowing for it to submit new data as and when it came in, accelerating the overall review process.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 将注意力转向加拿大，宣布于 7 月 15 日通过其附属公司 Vaccigen, Ltd. 向加拿大卫生部提交滚动申请<b>,</b>允许it在收到新数据时提交新数据，从而加快整体审查流程。</blockquote></p><p> If approved, Ocugen will earn 55% of all profits earned from the vaccine, but as I discussed in my&nbsp;last note when providing some discounted cash flow analysis&nbsp;based on optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, it's doubtful if the Canadian government's purchases alone would provide a significant boot to Ocugen's current market cap valuation of $2.5bn, or its share price of $12.7.</p><p><blockquote>如果获得批准，Ocugen 将获得疫苗所有利润的 55%，但正如我在上一篇文章中根据乐观和悲观情景提供一些贴现现金流分析时所讨论的那样，加拿大政府的采购是否会对 Ocugen 目前的市值估值 25 亿美元，或其股价 12.7 美元，这一点值得怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> The US is the key for Ocugen, and management has by no means given up on this opportunity. In late October, Ocugen made an Investigational New Drug (\"IND\")&nbsp;submission&nbsp;to the FDA. Ocugen's plan is to initiate a Phase 3 \"immuno-bridging study,\" enrolling several hundred healthy adults in the U.S, who will receive 2 doses of Covaxin or placebo, 28 days apart. The endpoints are described by management (in an October 27th press release) as follows:</p><p><blockquote>美国是Ocugen的关键，管理层绝不会放弃这个机会。10月下旬，Ocugen向FDA提交了研究性新药（“IND”）。Ocugen 的计划是启动一项 3 期“免疫桥接研究”，在美国招募数百名健康成年人，他们将接受 2 剂科瓦克辛或安慰剂，间隔 28 天。管理层（在 10 月 27 日的新闻稿中）对终点进行了如下描述：</blockquote></p><p>   The primary endpoint will compare blood-based samples taken from U.S. participants who received COVAXIN™ with samples of the participants in the Phase 3 efficacy trial conducted in India. The secondary endpoint involves testing the vaccine's immunogenic profile. The study will also evaluate safety and tolerability in the U.S. population.  Ocugen hopes to have the study complete before the end of H122, if it is approved by the FDA, which has yet to make a decision. If the FDA does give the green light, then the US market - and Ocugen's 45% of all profits - is suddenly back on the table.</p><p><blockquote>主要终点将比较从接受科瓦克辛的美国参与者身上采集的血液样本™在印度进行的3期疗效试验的参与者样本。次要终点包括测试疫苗的免疫原性特征。该研究还将评估美国人群的安全性和耐受性。Ocugen希望在H122结束前完成研究，如果获得FDA的批准，FDA尚未做出决定。如果 FDA 确实开了绿灯，那么美国市场——以及 Ocugen 所有利润的 45%——就会突然回到桌面上。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Bharat Biotech&nbsp;received notification&nbsp;today that the World Health Organization has approved its application for an Emergency Use Listing (\"EUL\"), meaning Covaxin will now likely be accepted by a host of foreign governments, and that Indians who have received the vaccine will have fewer problems traveling overseas.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Bharat Biotech今天收到通知，世界卫生组织已经批准了其紧急使用清单（“EUL”）的申请，这意味着科瓦克辛现在可能会被许多外国政府接受，接种疫苗的印度人出国旅行将减少问题。</blockquote></p><p> It's great news for Bharat, who join the likes of Pfizer / BioNTech, Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ), SinoPharm, Moderna (MRNA) and AstraZeneca (AZN) on the list of EUL-approved vaccine developers - but it is not necessarily great news for Ocugen.</p><p><blockquote>这对Bharat来说是个好消息，他加入了辉瑞/BioNTech、强生（JNJ）、国药集团、Moderna（MRNA）和阿斯利康（AZN）等公司的行列，成为EUL批准的疫苗开发商，但对Ocugen来说不一定是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccines on the EUL list are permitted to be sent to government's around the world as part of the&nbsp;COVAX scheme, designed to create equitable vaccine distribution around the world, including poorer countries, but the US is a donor to this scheme, not a beneficiary, meaning that Ocugen effectively gets no benefit, and no revenues, as a result of the WHO approval for Covaxin.</p><p><blockquote>作为COVAX计划的一部分，EUL名单上的疫苗被允许发送到世界各地的政府，该计划旨在在世界各地（包括较贫穷的国家）建立公平的疫苗分配，但美国是该计划的捐助者，而不是受益者，这意味着由于世卫组织批准科瓦克辛，Ocugen实际上没有获得任何好处和收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ocugen Stock Is Already On A Downtrend - All Eyes Will Now Be On Health Canada And The FDA</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Ocugen 股票已经处于下跌趋势 - 现在所有的目光都将集中在加拿大卫生部和 FDA 上</b></blockquote></p><p> Ocugen stock bounced from a price of ~$9, to a peak of ~$16 in trading today, however the share price quickly began to decline, and finished at a price of $12.7. Post-market, shares were down another 10%.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 股票在今天的交易中从约 9 美元的价格反弹至约 16 美元的峰值，但股价很快开始下跌，最终以 12.7 美元的价格收盘。盘后，股价又下跌10%。</blockquote></p><p> That reflects the fact that the WHO approval for Covaxin does little to improve Ocugen's own fortunes, and in all honesty, was something of a red herring.</p><p><blockquote>这反映了这样一个事实，即世卫组织对科瓦克辛的批准对改善奥库根自己的命运没有什么帮助，老实说，这是一种转移视线。</blockquote></p><p> Ocugen investors, and Ocugen shorts, are desperate to know what the future holds for Covaxin in the US and Canada, but they will have to wait until Health Canada and the FDA rule respectively on an Emergency Use Authorization, and an approval to begin a drastically reduced pivotal trial in the US.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 投资者和 Ocugen shorts 迫切希望知道科瓦克辛在美国和加拿大的未来，但他们必须等到加拿大卫生部和 FDA 分别就紧急使用授权做出裁决，并批准在美国开始一项大幅减少的关键试验。</blockquote></p><p> Ironically, despite all of the news flow and the publication of Covaxin Phase 3 trial data, and the EUA granted to Covaxin by the Indian government, Ocugen's fortunes are in a similar place to where they were when I last covered the company - barring the US EUA opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>具有讽刺意味的是，尽管有所有的新闻流和科瓦克辛3期试验数据的公布，以及印度政府授予科瓦克辛的EUA，Ocugen的命运与我上次报道该公司时的情况相似——除了美国的EUA机会。</blockquote></p><p> That opportunity - the one that may have sent Ocugen shares through the roof - has gone, but as I argued in my last post, I think it's possible that the US would not object to stockpiling some of the Covaxin shot, which has a differentiated mechanism of action, and a shelf life of up to years if stored at 2- 8 degrees centigrade.</p><p><blockquote>这个机会——可能会让 Ocugen 股票暴跌的机会——已经一去不复返了，但正如我在上一篇文章中所说，我认为美国可能不会反对储备一些科瓦克辛子弹，它具有不同的作用机制，如果储存在 2-8 摄氏度下，保质期可达数年。</blockquote></p><p> Covaxin may have benefits that other vaccines do not, the reasoning may go, such as its ability to induce a Th1 response, conferring cell-mediated immunity and offering durable protection, and enhanced protection against COVID variants, which is the primary concern at the present time.</p><p><blockquote>科瓦克辛可能具有其他疫苗没有的好处，理由可能是这样的，例如它能够诱导Th1反应，赋予细胞介导的免疫并提供持久的保护，以及增强对COVID变种的保护，这是目前的主要问题。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, the US may now be able to obtain supply directly from Bharat via the WHO and be in a position to cut Ocugen - the middleman - out of any deal.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，美国现在可能能够通过世卫组织直接从巴拉特获得供应，并能够将中间人Ocugen排除在任何交易之外。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The fact of the matter is that Ocugen's opportunity with Bharat and Covaxin has always appeared to be one that required expediency of execution, in order to capitalize on a US market opportunity that's uncertain, perhaps negligible, at worst, and a potential multi-billion opportunity at best.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，Ocugen与巴拉特和科瓦克辛的机会似乎总是需要执行权宜之计，以便利用美国市场的机会，这个机会在最坏的情况下是不确定的，也许可以忽略不计，在最好的情况下是潜在的数十亿美元的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Nobody knows even if Ocugen will get an opportunity to market Covaxin in the US, but if it does, it will need to negotiate a tricky Phase 3 trial first, which could take us into the latter half of next year. Equally, no-one yet knows if Health Canada will approve the vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>甚至没有人知道 Ocugen 是否会有机会在美国销售科瓦克辛，但如果有机会，它将需要首先谈判一项棘手的 3 期试验，这可能会让我们进入明年下半年。同样，还没有人知道加拿大卫生部是否会批准这种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> To summarise the current state of affairs, I would lean toward an approval in Canada - if Covaxin is good enough for the WHO, why would it not be good enough for Canada?</p><p><blockquote>总结目前的情况，我倾向于加拿大的批准——如果科瓦克辛对世卫组织来说足够好，为什么对加拿大来说就不够好呢？</blockquote></p><p> But how much product will Canada buy? Probably enough to create a substantial price spike for Ocugen stock, although demand is unlikely to be high enough to sustain that spike long term.</p><p><blockquote>但是加拿大会购买多少产品呢？可能足以给 Ocugen 股票带来大幅价格飙升，尽管需求不太可能高到足以长期维持这种飙升。</blockquote></p><p> How much would the US buy if Covaxin was approved in the US? Again, I cannot see it being a high enough volume to catapult Ocugen's market cap above say $10bn, but if it buys any at all, Ocugen's market valuation is more or less guaranteed to surge, at least temporarily.</p><p><blockquote>如果科瓦克辛在美国获得批准，美国会购买多少？同样，我认为这个交易量不足以让 Ocugen 的市值突破 100 亿美元，但如果它购买任何股票，Ocugen 的市场估值或多或少肯定会飙升，至少是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, I would argue that there is enough intrigue and opportunity in the Ocugen story to keep investors interested - on both the short and long sides. The WHO approval does not directly benefit Ocugen revenues wise, but it's another win for Covaxin, which is in turn a win for Ocugen.</p><p><blockquote>总之，我认为 Ocugen 的故事中有足够的阴谋和机会来保持投资者的兴趣——无论是空头还是多头。世卫组织的批准并没有直接有利于 Ocugen 的收入，但这是科瓦克辛的又一次胜利，而这反过来又是 Ocugen 的胜利。</blockquote></p><p> If I has been holding Ocugen stock since December last year, when it traded at &gt;$0.5, frankly I would have sold by now, but if I had opened a position at ~$10, in expectation of doubling my money on a US approval, I would still be (nervously) holding.</p><p><blockquote>如果我自去年 12 月以来一直持有 Ocugen 股票，当时它的交易价格超过 0.5 美元，坦率地说，我现在已经卖出了，但如果我以约 10 美元的价格开仓，预计在美国批准后将资金翻倍，我仍然会（紧张地）持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ocugen: WHO Approval For Covaxin Is Potentially A Red Herring For Investors<blockquote>Ocugen：世卫组织批准科瓦克辛可能是投资者的转移注意力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOcugen: WHO Approval For Covaxin Is Potentially A Red Herring For Investors<blockquote>Ocugen：世卫组织批准科瓦克辛可能是投资者的转移注意力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-04 22:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Ocugen missed the opportunity to grab an Emergency Use Authorization for Covaxin in the US earlier this year, but it could still gain an approval via a pivotal immuno-bridging study.</li>  <li>Meanwhile, Bharat has received WHO approval for Emergency Use Listing, meaning the vaccine can be distributed around the world - but that doesn't directly benefit Ocugen.</li>  <li>There are numerous possibilities in play, and Ocugen has no shortage of backers and shorts - the stock is up &gt;4,000% in the past year, but has trodden water for several months.</li>  <li>It's hard to determine what may be in store next for Ocugen shareholders, but if I were one, I'd be holding and hoping. I recap the full story below.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25648bf13e5cb82880f748129c72261c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>今年早些时候，Ocugen错过了在美国获得科瓦克辛紧急使用授权的机会，但它仍然可以通过一项关键的免疫桥接研究获得批准。</li><li>与此同时，Bharat 已获得世卫组织紧急使用清单批准，这意味着该疫苗可以在世界各地分发，但这并没有直接使 Ocugen 受益。</li><li>有许多可能性在发挥作用，Ocugen 并不缺乏支持者和空头 - 该股在过去一年中上涨了 4,000% 以上，但几个月来一直在下跌。</li><li>很难确定 Ocugen 股东接下来会发生什么，但如果我是其中之一，我会持有并希望。我在下面回顾一下整个故事。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Klaus Vedfelt/数字视觉，盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Bharat Biotech received an approval from the World Health Organization (\"WHO\") today to join the Emergency Use List (\"EUL\") for vaccines against COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>巴拉特生物技术公司今天获得世界卫生组织（“世卫组织”）的批准，加入新冠肺炎疫苗的紧急使用清单（“EUL”）。</blockquote></p><p> As most investors will know, Ocugen (OCGN) holds the rights to distribute Covaxin in the US on behalf of Bharat, in exchange for a 45% share of all profits. It also has a similar deal in place for Canada, standing to earn 55% of all profits.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者都知道，Ocugen (OCGN) 拥有代表 Bharat 在美国分销科瓦克辛的权利，以换取所有利润的 45% 份额。它在加拿大也有类似的交易，有望获得所有利润的55%。</blockquote></p><p> Ocugen investors and shorts will be nervously waiting to see how today's news affects the biotech's share price, which initially jumped to $16, but has fallen to $12 post-market.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 投资者和空头将紧张地等待今天的消息将如何影响这家生物技术公司的股价，该公司的股价最初跃升至 16 美元，但盘后已跌至 12 美元。</blockquote></p><p> In this post I recap the full story, updated from my&nbsp;last post in June, and offer some ways to think about Ocugen's share price in the short and long term.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇文章中，我回顾了我六月份上一篇文章更新的完整故事，并提供了一些短期和长期思考 Ocugen 股价的方法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ocugen Stock Jumps From $0.5 To $16 In 3 Months On Bharat COVID Vaccine Deal - The Story So Far</b></p><p><blockquote><b>由于 Bharat COVID 疫苗交易，Ocugen 股价在 3 个月内从 0.5 美元跃升至 16 美元 - 迄今为止的故事</b></blockquote></p><p> Ocugen is one of the more bizarre biotech stories of 2021. In mid-December 2020, its shares were trading &lt;$0.5, as the company struggled to develop a preclinical portfolio of gene therapy drug candidates targeting eye disease, having abandoned development of its lead candidate OCU300 in Graft vs Host Disease (\"GvHD\").</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen是2021年更离奇的生物技术故事之一。2020 年 12 月中旬，其股价低于 0.5 美元，因为该公司正在努力开发针对眼部疾病的基因治疗候选药物的临床前组合，放弃了移植物抗宿主病的主要候选药物 OCU300 的开发（“GvHD”）。</blockquote></p><p> A delisting from the Nasdaq looked a likely outcome for the company, but then Ocugen's fortunes changed dramatically - the biotech&nbsp;became a partner&nbsp;of Bharat Biotech, developer of the whole-virion inactivated vaccine candidate Covaxin, agreeing to help the Indian Pharma commercialise Covaxin in the US and Canada. Overnight, Ocugen's share price jumped to a price of $3, and by early February, it was trading at $16.</p><p><blockquote>从纳斯达克退市看起来是该公司可能的结果，但随后 Ocugen 的命运发生了巨大变化——该生物技术公司成为全病毒体灭活疫苗候选药物 Covaxin 的开发商 Bharat Biotech 的合作伙伴，同意帮助印度制药公司将 Covaxin 商业化在美国和加拿大。一夜之间，Ocugen 的股价跃升至 3 美元，到 2 月初，其交易价格为 16 美元。</blockquote></p><p> I covered the full story in a&nbsp;note on Ocugen&nbsp;back in June, when Ocugen's shares were trading in a slightly more down-to-earth range of $6 - $10. At that time, the key question was whether Covaxin would receive an Emergency Use Authorization (\"EUA\") from the FDA, allowing it to be marketed and sold in the US.</p><p><blockquote>早在 6 月份，我就在 Ocugen 的一篇笔记中讲述了整个故事，当时 Ocugen 的股价在 6 美元至 10 美元的范围内稍微实在一些。当时的关键问题是科瓦克辛是否会获得FDA的紧急使用授权（“EUA”），允许其在美国上市销售。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately for Ocugen investors, delays in Bharat's trials of Covaxin in India, where outbreaks of COVID had suddenly become widespread, meant that Ocugen could not get positive Phase 3 trial data in front of the FDA in time for a deadline imposed by the US government - after which it would not accept any further EUA requests for COVID-19 vaccines for the remainder of the pandemic for those companies that have not already begun discussions with the FDA.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Ocugen 投资者来说不幸的是，Bharat 在印度进行的科瓦克辛试验的延误意味着 Ocugen 无法在美国政府规定的最后期限前及时向 FDA 获得积极的 3 期试验数据 - 此后，对于那些尚未开始与 FDA 讨论的公司，它将不再接受任何进一步的 EUA 请求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ocugen And Bharat Stay The Course - Trials Reveal Strong Efficacy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Ocugen 和 Bharat 坚持到底 - 试验显示强效疗效</b></blockquote></p><p> The bad news about an EUA in the US did not deter Ocugen, Bharat, or Ocugen's investors, however. Despite heavy short interest, as many market watchers concluded Ocugen's share price would be decimated without an EUA for Covaxin in the US, Ocugen management felt that there were other options on the table, including obtaining an EUA in Canada, which falls under its agreement with Bharat, allowing Ocugen to earn 45% of all revenues earned in the region.</p><p><blockquote>然而，有关美国EUA的坏消息并没有阻止Ocugen、Bharat或Ocugen的投资者。尽管空头兴趣浓厚，但许多市场观察人士得出结论，如果没有美国科瓦克辛的 EUA，Ocugen 的股价将会大幅下跌，Ocugen 管理层认为还有其他选择，包括在加拿大获得 EUA，这属于其与 Bharat 的协议范围，使 Ocugen 能够赚取该地区所有收入的 45%。</blockquote></p><p> The results of Bharat's ~@5k patient Phase 3 trial in India also came out positive.</p><p><blockquote>Bharat在印度的~@5k患者3期试验结果也呈阳性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/862520ed53c876fb96840a3cb9a7a6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Summary of results of Bharat Biotech Phase 3 trial of Covaxin. Source: Ocugen Corporate Presentation.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Bharat Biotech科瓦克辛3期试验结果总结。资料来源：Ocugen公司演示文稿。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see above, Bharat's Covaxin (finally) delivered an efficacy readout of 77.8%, 93.4% efficacy against severe disease - and 65.2% efficacy against the delta variant - the most devastating of all the COVID strains. Furthermore, the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases advised that a novel vaccine adjuvant developed in Kansas, US with NIAID support, Alhydroxiquim-II, enhanced the overall efficacy of Covaxin.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们在上面看到的，巴拉特的科瓦克辛（最终）提供了77.8%的功效读数，对严重疾病的功效为93.4%，对德尔塔变异毒株的功效为65.2%，是所有新冠病毒毒株中最具破坏性的。此外，美国国家过敏和传染病研究所建议，在NIAID支持下，美国堪萨斯州开发的一种新型疫苗佐剂Alhydroxiquim-II增强了科瓦克辛的总体疗效。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bharat Pursues WHO Emergency Use Listing Whilst Ocugen Looks To Canada</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Bharat 寻求世卫组织紧急使用清单，而 Ocugen 则将目光投向加拿大</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> These results, as strong as they are - and it should be noted the efficacy of Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech's (BNTX) messenger-RNA Comirnaty vaccine against the Delta variant has&nbsp;dropped as low as 39%&nbsp;in studies in Israel - they arrived too late to help Ocugen secure an EUA in the US.</p><p><blockquote>这些结果尽管很有力——应该指出的是，辉瑞 (PFE) 和 BioNTech (BNTX) 信使 RNA Comirnaty 疫苗对德尔塔变异毒株病毒的效力在以色列的研究中已降至 39%——但它们来得太晚了，无法帮助 Ocugen 在美国获得 EUA。</blockquote></p><p> Ocugen turned its attention to Canada,announcing&nbsp;a rolling submission to Health Canada on July 15 through its affiliate, Vaccigen, Ltd<b>,</b>allowing for it to submit new data as and when it came in, accelerating the overall review process.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 将注意力转向加拿大，宣布于 7 月 15 日通过其附属公司 Vaccigen, Ltd. 向加拿大卫生部提交滚动申请<b>,</b>允许it在收到新数据时提交新数据，从而加快整体审查流程。</blockquote></p><p> If approved, Ocugen will earn 55% of all profits earned from the vaccine, but as I discussed in my&nbsp;last note when providing some discounted cash flow analysis&nbsp;based on optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, it's doubtful if the Canadian government's purchases alone would provide a significant boot to Ocugen's current market cap valuation of $2.5bn, or its share price of $12.7.</p><p><blockquote>如果获得批准，Ocugen 将获得疫苗所有利润的 55%，但正如我在上一篇文章中根据乐观和悲观情景提供一些贴现现金流分析时所讨论的那样，加拿大政府的采购是否会对 Ocugen 目前的市值估值 25 亿美元，或其股价 12.7 美元，这一点值得怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> The US is the key for Ocugen, and management has by no means given up on this opportunity. In late October, Ocugen made an Investigational New Drug (\"IND\")&nbsp;submission&nbsp;to the FDA. Ocugen's plan is to initiate a Phase 3 \"immuno-bridging study,\" enrolling several hundred healthy adults in the U.S, who will receive 2 doses of Covaxin or placebo, 28 days apart. The endpoints are described by management (in an October 27th press release) as follows:</p><p><blockquote>美国是Ocugen的关键，管理层绝不会放弃这个机会。10月下旬，Ocugen向FDA提交了研究性新药（“IND”）。Ocugen 的计划是启动一项 3 期“免疫桥接研究”，在美国招募数百名健康成年人，他们将接受 2 剂科瓦克辛或安慰剂，间隔 28 天。管理层（在 10 月 27 日的新闻稿中）对终点进行了如下描述：</blockquote></p><p>   The primary endpoint will compare blood-based samples taken from U.S. participants who received COVAXIN™ with samples of the participants in the Phase 3 efficacy trial conducted in India. The secondary endpoint involves testing the vaccine's immunogenic profile. The study will also evaluate safety and tolerability in the U.S. population.  Ocugen hopes to have the study complete before the end of H122, if it is approved by the FDA, which has yet to make a decision. If the FDA does give the green light, then the US market - and Ocugen's 45% of all profits - is suddenly back on the table.</p><p><blockquote>主要终点将比较从接受科瓦克辛的美国参与者身上采集的血液样本™在印度进行的3期疗效试验的参与者样本。次要终点包括测试疫苗的免疫原性特征。该研究还将评估美国人群的安全性和耐受性。Ocugen希望在H122结束前完成研究，如果获得FDA的批准，FDA尚未做出决定。如果 FDA 确实开了绿灯，那么美国市场——以及 Ocugen 所有利润的 45%——就会突然回到桌面上。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Bharat Biotech&nbsp;received notification&nbsp;today that the World Health Organization has approved its application for an Emergency Use Listing (\"EUL\"), meaning Covaxin will now likely be accepted by a host of foreign governments, and that Indians who have received the vaccine will have fewer problems traveling overseas.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Bharat Biotech今天收到通知，世界卫生组织已经批准了其紧急使用清单（“EUL”）的申请，这意味着科瓦克辛现在可能会被许多外国政府接受，接种疫苗的印度人出国旅行将减少问题。</blockquote></p><p> It's great news for Bharat, who join the likes of Pfizer / BioNTech, Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ), SinoPharm, Moderna (MRNA) and AstraZeneca (AZN) on the list of EUL-approved vaccine developers - but it is not necessarily great news for Ocugen.</p><p><blockquote>这对Bharat来说是个好消息，他加入了辉瑞/BioNTech、强生（JNJ）、国药集团、Moderna（MRNA）和阿斯利康（AZN）等公司的行列，成为EUL批准的疫苗开发商，但对Ocugen来说不一定是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccines on the EUL list are permitted to be sent to government's around the world as part of the&nbsp;COVAX scheme, designed to create equitable vaccine distribution around the world, including poorer countries, but the US is a donor to this scheme, not a beneficiary, meaning that Ocugen effectively gets no benefit, and no revenues, as a result of the WHO approval for Covaxin.</p><p><blockquote>作为COVAX计划的一部分，EUL名单上的疫苗被允许发送到世界各地的政府，该计划旨在在世界各地（包括较贫穷的国家）建立公平的疫苗分配，但美国是该计划的捐助者，而不是受益者，这意味着由于世卫组织批准科瓦克辛，Ocugen实际上没有获得任何好处和收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ocugen Stock Is Already On A Downtrend - All Eyes Will Now Be On Health Canada And The FDA</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Ocugen 股票已经处于下跌趋势 - 现在所有的目光都将集中在加拿大卫生部和 FDA 上</b></blockquote></p><p> Ocugen stock bounced from a price of ~$9, to a peak of ~$16 in trading today, however the share price quickly began to decline, and finished at a price of $12.7. Post-market, shares were down another 10%.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 股票在今天的交易中从约 9 美元的价格反弹至约 16 美元的峰值，但股价很快开始下跌，最终以 12.7 美元的价格收盘。盘后，股价又下跌10%。</blockquote></p><p> That reflects the fact that the WHO approval for Covaxin does little to improve Ocugen's own fortunes, and in all honesty, was something of a red herring.</p><p><blockquote>这反映了这样一个事实，即世卫组织对科瓦克辛的批准对改善奥库根自己的命运没有什么帮助，老实说，这是一种转移视线。</blockquote></p><p> Ocugen investors, and Ocugen shorts, are desperate to know what the future holds for Covaxin in the US and Canada, but they will have to wait until Health Canada and the FDA rule respectively on an Emergency Use Authorization, and an approval to begin a drastically reduced pivotal trial in the US.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 投资者和 Ocugen shorts 迫切希望知道科瓦克辛在美国和加拿大的未来，但他们必须等到加拿大卫生部和 FDA 分别就紧急使用授权做出裁决，并批准在美国开始一项大幅减少的关键试验。</blockquote></p><p> Ironically, despite all of the news flow and the publication of Covaxin Phase 3 trial data, and the EUA granted to Covaxin by the Indian government, Ocugen's fortunes are in a similar place to where they were when I last covered the company - barring the US EUA opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>具有讽刺意味的是，尽管有所有的新闻流和科瓦克辛3期试验数据的公布，以及印度政府授予科瓦克辛的EUA，Ocugen的命运与我上次报道该公司时的情况相似——除了美国的EUA机会。</blockquote></p><p> That opportunity - the one that may have sent Ocugen shares through the roof - has gone, but as I argued in my last post, I think it's possible that the US would not object to stockpiling some of the Covaxin shot, which has a differentiated mechanism of action, and a shelf life of up to years if stored at 2- 8 degrees centigrade.</p><p><blockquote>这个机会——可能会让 Ocugen 股票暴跌的机会——已经一去不复返了，但正如我在上一篇文章中所说，我认为美国可能不会反对储备一些科瓦克辛子弹，它具有不同的作用机制，如果储存在 2-8 摄氏度下，保质期可达数年。</blockquote></p><p> Covaxin may have benefits that other vaccines do not, the reasoning may go, such as its ability to induce a Th1 response, conferring cell-mediated immunity and offering durable protection, and enhanced protection against COVID variants, which is the primary concern at the present time.</p><p><blockquote>科瓦克辛可能具有其他疫苗没有的好处，理由可能是这样的，例如它能够诱导Th1反应，赋予细胞介导的免疫并提供持久的保护，以及增强对COVID变种的保护，这是目前的主要问题。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, the US may now be able to obtain supply directly from Bharat via the WHO and be in a position to cut Ocugen - the middleman - out of any deal.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，美国现在可能能够通过世卫组织直接从巴拉特获得供应，并能够将中间人Ocugen排除在任何交易之外。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The fact of the matter is that Ocugen's opportunity with Bharat and Covaxin has always appeared to be one that required expediency of execution, in order to capitalize on a US market opportunity that's uncertain, perhaps negligible, at worst, and a potential multi-billion opportunity at best.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，Ocugen与巴拉特和科瓦克辛的机会似乎总是需要执行权宜之计，以便利用美国市场的机会，这个机会在最坏的情况下是不确定的，也许可以忽略不计，在最好的情况下是潜在的数十亿美元的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Nobody knows even if Ocugen will get an opportunity to market Covaxin in the US, but if it does, it will need to negotiate a tricky Phase 3 trial first, which could take us into the latter half of next year. Equally, no-one yet knows if Health Canada will approve the vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>甚至没有人知道 Ocugen 是否会有机会在美国销售科瓦克辛，但如果有机会，它将需要首先谈判一项棘手的 3 期试验，这可能会让我们进入明年下半年。同样，还没有人知道加拿大卫生部是否会批准这种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> To summarise the current state of affairs, I would lean toward an approval in Canada - if Covaxin is good enough for the WHO, why would it not be good enough for Canada?</p><p><blockquote>总结目前的情况，我倾向于加拿大的批准——如果科瓦克辛对世卫组织来说足够好，为什么对加拿大来说就不够好呢？</blockquote></p><p> But how much product will Canada buy? Probably enough to create a substantial price spike for Ocugen stock, although demand is unlikely to be high enough to sustain that spike long term.</p><p><blockquote>但是加拿大会购买多少产品呢？可能足以给 Ocugen 股票带来大幅价格飙升，尽管需求不太可能高到足以长期维持这种飙升。</blockquote></p><p> How much would the US buy if Covaxin was approved in the US? Again, I cannot see it being a high enough volume to catapult Ocugen's market cap above say $10bn, but if it buys any at all, Ocugen's market valuation is more or less guaranteed to surge, at least temporarily.</p><p><blockquote>如果科瓦克辛在美国获得批准，美国会购买多少？同样，我认为这个交易量不足以让 Ocugen 的市值突破 100 亿美元，但如果它购买任何股票，Ocugen 的市场估值或多或少肯定会飙升，至少是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, I would argue that there is enough intrigue and opportunity in the Ocugen story to keep investors interested - on both the short and long sides. The WHO approval does not directly benefit Ocugen revenues wise, but it's another win for Covaxin, which is in turn a win for Ocugen.</p><p><blockquote>总之，我认为 Ocugen 的故事中有足够的阴谋和机会来保持投资者的兴趣——无论是空头还是多头。世卫组织的批准并没有直接有利于 Ocugen 的收入，但这是科瓦克辛的又一次胜利，而这反过来又是 Ocugen 的胜利。</blockquote></p><p> If I has been holding Ocugen stock since December last year, when it traded at &gt;$0.5, frankly I would have sold by now, but if I had opened a position at ~$10, in expectation of doubling my money on a US approval, I would still be (nervously) holding.</p><p><blockquote>如果我自去年 12 月以来一直持有 Ocugen 股票，当时它的交易价格超过 0.5 美元，坦率地说，我现在已经卖出了，但如果我以约 10 美元的价格开仓，预计在美国批准后将资金翻倍，我仍然会（紧张地）持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4465154-ocugen-approval-for-covaxin-red-herring-for-investors\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OCGN":"Ocugen"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4465154-ocugen-approval-for-covaxin-red-herring-for-investors","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168874793","content_text":"Summary\n\nOcugen missed the opportunity to grab an Emergency Use Authorization for Covaxin in the US earlier this year, but it could still gain an approval via a pivotal immuno-bridging study.\nMeanwhile, Bharat has received WHO approval for Emergency Use Listing, meaning the vaccine can be distributed around the world - but that doesn't directly benefit Ocugen.\nThere are numerous possibilities in play, and Ocugen has no shortage of backers and shorts - the stock is up >4,000% in the past year, but has trodden water for several months.\nIt's hard to determine what may be in store next for Ocugen shareholders, but if I were one, I'd be holding and hoping. I recap the full story below.\n\nKlaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nBharat Biotech received an approval from the World Health Organization (\"WHO\") today to join the Emergency Use List (\"EUL\") for vaccines against COVID-19.\nAs most investors will know, Ocugen (OCGN) holds the rights to distribute Covaxin in the US on behalf of Bharat, in exchange for a 45% share of all profits. It also has a similar deal in place for Canada, standing to earn 55% of all profits.\nOcugen investors and shorts will be nervously waiting to see how today's news affects the biotech's share price, which initially jumped to $16, but has fallen to $12 post-market.\nIn this post I recap the full story, updated from my last post in June, and offer some ways to think about Ocugen's share price in the short and long term.\nOcugen Stock Jumps From $0.5 To $16 In 3 Months On Bharat COVID Vaccine Deal - The Story So Far\nOcugen is one of the more bizarre biotech stories of 2021. In mid-December 2020, its shares were trading <$0.5, as the company struggled to develop a preclinical portfolio of gene therapy drug candidates targeting eye disease, having abandoned development of its lead candidate OCU300 in Graft vs Host Disease (\"GvHD\").\nA delisting from the Nasdaq looked a likely outcome for the company, but then Ocugen's fortunes changed dramatically - the biotech became a partner of Bharat Biotech, developer of the whole-virion inactivated vaccine candidate Covaxin, agreeing to help the Indian Pharma commercialise Covaxin in the US and Canada. Overnight, Ocugen's share price jumped to a price of $3, and by early February, it was trading at $16.\nI covered the full story in a note on Ocugen back in June, when Ocugen's shares were trading in a slightly more down-to-earth range of $6 - $10. At that time, the key question was whether Covaxin would receive an Emergency Use Authorization (\"EUA\") from the FDA, allowing it to be marketed and sold in the US.\nUnfortunately for Ocugen investors, delays in Bharat's trials of Covaxin in India, where outbreaks of COVID had suddenly become widespread, meant that Ocugen could not get positive Phase 3 trial data in front of the FDA in time for a deadline imposed by the US government - after which it would not accept any further EUA requests for COVID-19 vaccines for the remainder of the pandemic for those companies that have not already begun discussions with the FDA.\nOcugen And Bharat Stay The Course - Trials Reveal Strong Efficacy\nThe bad news about an EUA in the US did not deter Ocugen, Bharat, or Ocugen's investors, however. Despite heavy short interest, as many market watchers concluded Ocugen's share price would be decimated without an EUA for Covaxin in the US, Ocugen management felt that there were other options on the table, including obtaining an EUA in Canada, which falls under its agreement with Bharat, allowing Ocugen to earn 45% of all revenues earned in the region.\nThe results of Bharat's ~@5k patient Phase 3 trial in India also came out positive.\nSummary of results of Bharat Biotech Phase 3 trial of Covaxin. Source: Ocugen Corporate Presentation.\nAs we can see above, Bharat's Covaxin (finally) delivered an efficacy readout of 77.8%, 93.4% efficacy against severe disease - and 65.2% efficacy against the delta variant - the most devastating of all the COVID strains. Furthermore, the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases advised that a novel vaccine adjuvant developed in Kansas, US with NIAID support, Alhydroxiquim-II, enhanced the overall efficacy of Covaxin.\nBharat Pursues WHO Emergency Use Listing Whilst Ocugen Looks To Canada\nThese results, as strong as they are - and it should be noted the efficacy of Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech's (BNTX) messenger-RNA Comirnaty vaccine against the Delta variant has dropped as low as 39% in studies in Israel - they arrived too late to help Ocugen secure an EUA in the US.\nOcugen turned its attention to Canada,announcing a rolling submission to Health Canada on July 15 through its affiliate, Vaccigen, Ltd,allowing for it to submit new data as and when it came in, accelerating the overall review process.\nIf approved, Ocugen will earn 55% of all profits earned from the vaccine, but as I discussed in my last note when providing some discounted cash flow analysis based on optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, it's doubtful if the Canadian government's purchases alone would provide a significant boot to Ocugen's current market cap valuation of $2.5bn, or its share price of $12.7.\nThe US is the key for Ocugen, and management has by no means given up on this opportunity. In late October, Ocugen made an Investigational New Drug (\"IND\") submission to the FDA. Ocugen's plan is to initiate a Phase 3 \"immuno-bridging study,\" enrolling several hundred healthy adults in the U.S, who will receive 2 doses of Covaxin or placebo, 28 days apart. The endpoints are described by management (in an October 27th press release) as follows:\n\n The primary endpoint will compare blood-based samples taken from U.S. participants who received COVAXIN™ with samples of the participants in the Phase 3 efficacy trial conducted in India. The secondary endpoint involves testing the vaccine's immunogenic profile. The study will also evaluate safety and tolerability in the U.S. population.\n\nOcugen hopes to have the study complete before the end of H122, if it is approved by the FDA, which has yet to make a decision. If the FDA does give the green light, then the US market - and Ocugen's 45% of all profits - is suddenly back on the table.\nMeanwhile, Bharat Biotech received notification today that the World Health Organization has approved its application for an Emergency Use Listing (\"EUL\"), meaning Covaxin will now likely be accepted by a host of foreign governments, and that Indians who have received the vaccine will have fewer problems traveling overseas.\nIt's great news for Bharat, who join the likes of Pfizer / BioNTech, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), SinoPharm, Moderna (MRNA) and AstraZeneca (AZN) on the list of EUL-approved vaccine developers - but it is not necessarily great news for Ocugen.\nVaccines on the EUL list are permitted to be sent to government's around the world as part of the COVAX scheme, designed to create equitable vaccine distribution around the world, including poorer countries, but the US is a donor to this scheme, not a beneficiary, meaning that Ocugen effectively gets no benefit, and no revenues, as a result of the WHO approval for Covaxin.\nOcugen Stock Is Already On A Downtrend - All Eyes Will Now Be On Health Canada And The FDA\nOcugen stock bounced from a price of ~$9, to a peak of ~$16 in trading today, however the share price quickly began to decline, and finished at a price of $12.7. Post-market, shares were down another 10%.\nThat reflects the fact that the WHO approval for Covaxin does little to improve Ocugen's own fortunes, and in all honesty, was something of a red herring.\nOcugen investors, and Ocugen shorts, are desperate to know what the future holds for Covaxin in the US and Canada, but they will have to wait until Health Canada and the FDA rule respectively on an Emergency Use Authorization, and an approval to begin a drastically reduced pivotal trial in the US.\nIronically, despite all of the news flow and the publication of Covaxin Phase 3 trial data, and the EUA granted to Covaxin by the Indian government, Ocugen's fortunes are in a similar place to where they were when I last covered the company - barring the US EUA opportunity.\nThat opportunity - the one that may have sent Ocugen shares through the roof - has gone, but as I argued in my last post, I think it's possible that the US would not object to stockpiling some of the Covaxin shot, which has a differentiated mechanism of action, and a shelf life of up to years if stored at 2- 8 degrees centigrade.\nCovaxin may have benefits that other vaccines do not, the reasoning may go, such as its ability to induce a Th1 response, conferring cell-mediated immunity and offering durable protection, and enhanced protection against COVID variants, which is the primary concern at the present time.\nOn the other hand, the US may now be able to obtain supply directly from Bharat via the WHO and be in a position to cut Ocugen - the middleman - out of any deal.\nThe fact of the matter is that Ocugen's opportunity with Bharat and Covaxin has always appeared to be one that required expediency of execution, in order to capitalize on a US market opportunity that's uncertain, perhaps negligible, at worst, and a potential multi-billion opportunity at best.\nNobody knows even if Ocugen will get an opportunity to market Covaxin in the US, but if it does, it will need to negotiate a tricky Phase 3 trial first, which could take us into the latter half of next year. Equally, no-one yet knows if Health Canada will approve the vaccine.\nConclusion\nTo summarise the current state of affairs, I would lean toward an approval in Canada - if Covaxin is good enough for the WHO, why would it not be good enough for Canada?\nBut how much product will Canada buy? Probably enough to create a substantial price spike for Ocugen stock, although demand is unlikely to be high enough to sustain that spike long term.\nHow much would the US buy if Covaxin was approved in the US? Again, I cannot see it being a high enough volume to catapult Ocugen's market cap above say $10bn, but if it buys any at all, Ocugen's market valuation is more or less guaranteed to surge, at least temporarily.\nIn conclusion, I would argue that there is enough intrigue and opportunity in the Ocugen story to keep investors interested - on both the short and long sides. The WHO approval does not directly benefit Ocugen revenues wise, but it's another win for Covaxin, which is in turn a win for Ocugen.\nIf I has been holding Ocugen stock since December last year, when it traded at >$0.5, frankly I would have sold by now, but if I had opened a position at ~$10, in expectation of doubling my money on a US approval, I would still be (nervously) holding.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OCGN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841977718,"gmtCreate":1635873963161,"gmtModify":1635873963161,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095811186634540","idStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGI\">$Birks(BGI)$</a>Hmm another parabolic move on 3M TF","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGI\">$Birks(BGI)$</a>Hmm another parabolic move on 3M TF","text":"$Birks(BGI)$Hmm another parabolic move on 3M TF","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d5cf7adb845655d68e4efeeb481fc0","width":"1125","height":"2915"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841977718","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841977689,"gmtCreate":1635873889386,"gmtModify":1635873889386,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095811186634540","idStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAOS\">$Baosheng Media Group Holdings(BAOS)$</a>Parabolic move on smaller time frame?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAOS\">$Baosheng Media Group Holdings(BAOS)$</a>Parabolic move on smaller time frame?","text":"$Baosheng Media Group Holdings(BAOS)$Parabolic move on smaller time frame?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cbcf4e64707dc4ca9280b8e7844293a","width":"1125","height":"2915"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841977689","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841977324,"gmtCreate":1635873833618,"gmtModify":1635873833618,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095811186634540","idStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAOS\">$Baosheng Media Group Holdings(BAOS)$</a>Parabolic move?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAOS\">$Baosheng Media Group Holdings(BAOS)$</a>Parabolic move?","text":"$Baosheng Media Group Holdings(BAOS)$Parabolic move?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841977324","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849590294,"gmtCreate":1635763928571,"gmtModify":1635763928571,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095811186634540","idStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The from WHO will be on Nov 3.&nbsp;","listText":"The from WHO will be on Nov 3.&nbsp;","text":"The from WHO will be on Nov 3.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849590294","repostId":"1150864664","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150864664","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635759555,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1150864664?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-01 17:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ocugen shares jumped 8.8% in premarket trading<blockquote>Ocugen 股价在盘前交易中上涨 8.8%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150864664","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Ocugen shares jumped 8.8% in premarket trading.Ocugen hopes to launch Phase III Trial of Covaxin in ","content":"<p>Ocugen shares jumped 8.8% in premarket trading.Ocugen hopes to launch Phase III Trial of Covaxin in U.S.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 股价在盘前交易中上涨 8.8%。Ocugen 希望在美国启动科瓦克辛三期试验。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c40abeceb277bdc16372a037d9cc5f3\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Malvern, Pa.-based&nbsp;<b>Ocugen</b>&nbsp;has&nbsp;<b>submitted</b>&nbsp;an Investigational New Drug (IND) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to run a Phase III trial of India’s BBV152 (Covaxin), a vaccine against COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于宾夕法尼亚州马尔文<b>奥库根</b>有<b>已提交</b>美国的研究性新药（IND）美国食品和药物管理局（FDA）将对印度的 BBV152（科瓦克辛）进行 III 期试验，这是一种针对 COVID-19 的疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the trial’s&nbsp;goal&nbsp;is to determine if the vaccine’s immune response in a completed Phase III trial in India would be similar to the response in unvaccinated patients in the U.S. or those who have already received two doses of an mRNA vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>该试验的部分目标是确定疫苗在印度完成的三期试验中的免疫反应是否与美国未接种疫苗的患者或已经接种过两剂mRNA疫苗的患者的免疫反应相似。</blockquote></p><p> Covaxin&nbsp;is a whole-virion inactivated COVID-19 product. That means they take the SARS-CoV-2 virus, kill it, and use it as the vaccine. The possible advantage over other vaccines is it creates a broader immunity against the virus, not just the virus’s spike protein, or parts of the spike protein, as most other vaccines do. Covaxin would theoretically have similar efficacy against all variants, although it doesn’t seem to in trials.</p><p><blockquote>科瓦克辛是一种全病毒体灭活的新冠肺炎产品。这意味着他们拿走新型冠状病毒病毒，杀死它，并将其用作疫苗。与其他疫苗相比，它可能具有的优势是，它能对病毒产生更广泛的免疫力，而不仅仅是像大多数其他疫苗那样对病毒的刺突蛋白或刺突蛋白的一部分产生免疫力。理论上，科瓦克辛对所有变种都有类似的疗效，尽管在试验中似乎并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> The vaccine was jointly developed by India’s&nbsp;<b>Bharat Biotech</b>&nbsp;and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). Ocugen has a deal with Bharat to develop the vaccine in the U.S. and Canada. It has been distributed under emergency use authorizations in 17 countries.</p><p><blockquote>该疫苗由印度<b>巴拉特生物技术</b>和印度医学研究委员会（ICMR）。Ocugen 与 Bharat 达成协议，在美国和加拿大开发疫苗。它已根据紧急使用授权在17个国家分发。</blockquote></p><p> The vaccine received emergency authorization in India on January 3, 2021. However, there has been a<b>long delay</b>in authorization by the World Health Organization (WHO). This week, it got delayed once again as the WHO asked for additional information and clarifications from Bharat Biotech. The WHO expects to meet again for a final evaluation on November 3, if it receives the data.</p><p><blockquote>该疫苗于2021年1月3日在印度获得紧急授权。然而，有一个<b>长时间延迟</b>经世界卫生组织（世卫组织）授权。本周，由于世卫组织要求巴拉特生物技术公司提供更多信息和澄清，会议再次被推迟。如果收到数据，世卫组织预计将于11月3日再次开会进行最终评估。</blockquote></p><p> Although the WHO approval isn’t necessary for use in India or the U.S., it is necessary for the vaccine to be recognized by foreign countries. It allows for fewer problems for vaccinated people in terms of international travel. WHO’s Emergency use listing (EUL) would mean the vaccine was eligible for global distribution to low- and middle-income countries under COVAX.</p><p><blockquote>虽然在印度或美国使用不需要世卫组织的批准，但疫苗必须得到外国的承认。它减少了接种疫苗的人在国际旅行方面的问题。世卫组织的紧急使用清单（EUL）意味着该疫苗有资格根据 COVAX 在全球范围内分发给中低收入国家。</blockquote></p><p> Shankar Musunuri, Ph.D., chairman, chief executive officer, and co-founder of Ocugen, said of the FDA application, “We are very excited to take this next step in the development of Covaxin, which we hope will bring us closer to introducing a different type of COVID-19 vaccine to the American public. We are hopeful that the study conducted under the IND, if allowed to proceed, will help demonstrate that the data from India will be applicable to the U.S. population.”</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 公司董事长、首席执行官兼联合创始人 Shankar Musunuri 博士在谈到 FDA 的申请时说：“我们非常高兴能在科瓦克辛的研发方面迈出下一步，我们希望这将使我们更接近向美国公众推出一种不同类型的 COVID-19 疫苗。我们希望，根据印度国家信息研究所进行的研究，如果获准继续进行，将有助于证明来自印度的数据将适用于美国人口。”</blockquote></p><p> The Phase III immuno-bridging study, if given the green light, would enroll several hundred healthy U.S. adults. The participants would be given either two doses of Covaxin or placebo, 28 days apart. The primary endpoint would compare&nbsp;blood samples from U.S. participants who received the vaccine with samples in the Phase III trial performed in India. A secondary endpoint is an immunogenic profile of the vaccine. It will also determine safety and tolerability in the U.S. population. Ocugen hopes to wrap up the study in the first half of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这项 III 期免疫桥接研究如果获得批准，将招募数百名健康的美国成年人。参与者将接受两剂科瓦克辛或安慰剂，间隔28天。主要终点将比较接受疫苗的美国参与者的血液样本与在印度进行的III期试验中的样本。次要终点是疫苗的免疫原性特征。它还将决定美国人群的安全性和耐受性。Ocugen 希望在 2022 年上半年完成这项研究。</blockquote></p><p> The Phase III trial in India performed by Bharat Biotech involved 25,798 participants who received the vaccine or placebo. The primary endpoint was the prevention of symptomatic COVID-19 within at least 14 days after the second dose.</p><p><blockquote>Bharat Biotech在印度进行的III期试验涉及25,798名接受疫苗或安慰剂的参与者。主要终点是在第二剂给药后至少14天内预防有症状的新冠肺炎。</blockquote></p><p> Data from that trial reported 93.4% efficacy against severe COVID-19, 77.8% efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19, and 63.6% against asymptomatic disease. A sub-analysis of the data looked at its effectiveness against variants. The analysis showed that 90% of infections were associated with a variant, and 59% were the Delta variant. The vaccine demonstrated 65.2% efficacy against Delta.</p><p><blockquote>该试验的数据显示，对严重新冠肺炎的有效率为93.4%，对有症状的新冠肺炎的有效率为77.8%，对无症状疾病的有效率为63.6%。对数据的子分析着眼于其对变异的有效性。分析显示，90%的感染与变异有关，59%是德尔塔变异毒株。该疫苗对Delta的有效性为65.2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ocugen shares jumped 8.8% in premarket trading<blockquote>Ocugen 股价在盘前交易中上涨 8.8%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOcugen shares jumped 8.8% in premarket trading<blockquote>Ocugen 股价在盘前交易中上涨 8.8%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-01 17:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Ocugen shares jumped 8.8% in premarket trading.Ocugen hopes to launch Phase III Trial of Covaxin in U.S.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 股价在盘前交易中上涨 8.8%。Ocugen 希望在美国启动科瓦克辛三期试验。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c40abeceb277bdc16372a037d9cc5f3\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Malvern, Pa.-based&nbsp;<b>Ocugen</b>&nbsp;has&nbsp;<b>submitted</b>&nbsp;an Investigational New Drug (IND) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to run a Phase III trial of India’s BBV152 (Covaxin), a vaccine against COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于宾夕法尼亚州马尔文<b>奥库根</b>有<b>已提交</b>美国的研究性新药（IND）美国食品和药物管理局（FDA）将对印度的 BBV152（科瓦克辛）进行 III 期试验，这是一种针对 COVID-19 的疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the trial’s&nbsp;goal&nbsp;is to determine if the vaccine’s immune response in a completed Phase III trial in India would be similar to the response in unvaccinated patients in the U.S. or those who have already received two doses of an mRNA vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>该试验的部分目标是确定疫苗在印度完成的三期试验中的免疫反应是否与美国未接种疫苗的患者或已经接种过两剂mRNA疫苗的患者的免疫反应相似。</blockquote></p><p> Covaxin&nbsp;is a whole-virion inactivated COVID-19 product. That means they take the SARS-CoV-2 virus, kill it, and use it as the vaccine. The possible advantage over other vaccines is it creates a broader immunity against the virus, not just the virus’s spike protein, or parts of the spike protein, as most other vaccines do. Covaxin would theoretically have similar efficacy against all variants, although it doesn’t seem to in trials.</p><p><blockquote>科瓦克辛是一种全病毒体灭活的新冠肺炎产品。这意味着他们拿走新型冠状病毒病毒，杀死它，并将其用作疫苗。与其他疫苗相比，它可能具有的优势是，它能对病毒产生更广泛的免疫力，而不仅仅是像大多数其他疫苗那样对病毒的刺突蛋白或刺突蛋白的一部分产生免疫力。理论上，科瓦克辛对所有变种都有类似的疗效，尽管在试验中似乎并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> The vaccine was jointly developed by India’s&nbsp;<b>Bharat Biotech</b>&nbsp;and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). Ocugen has a deal with Bharat to develop the vaccine in the U.S. and Canada. It has been distributed under emergency use authorizations in 17 countries.</p><p><blockquote>该疫苗由印度<b>巴拉特生物技术</b>和印度医学研究委员会（ICMR）。Ocugen 与 Bharat 达成协议，在美国和加拿大开发疫苗。它已根据紧急使用授权在17个国家分发。</blockquote></p><p> The vaccine received emergency authorization in India on January 3, 2021. However, there has been a<b>long delay</b>in authorization by the World Health Organization (WHO). This week, it got delayed once again as the WHO asked for additional information and clarifications from Bharat Biotech. The WHO expects to meet again for a final evaluation on November 3, if it receives the data.</p><p><blockquote>该疫苗于2021年1月3日在印度获得紧急授权。然而，有一个<b>长时间延迟</b>经世界卫生组织（世卫组织）授权。本周，由于世卫组织要求巴拉特生物技术公司提供更多信息和澄清，会议再次被推迟。如果收到数据，世卫组织预计将于11月3日再次开会进行最终评估。</blockquote></p><p> Although the WHO approval isn’t necessary for use in India or the U.S., it is necessary for the vaccine to be recognized by foreign countries. It allows for fewer problems for vaccinated people in terms of international travel. WHO’s Emergency use listing (EUL) would mean the vaccine was eligible for global distribution to low- and middle-income countries under COVAX.</p><p><blockquote>虽然在印度或美国使用不需要世卫组织的批准，但疫苗必须得到外国的承认。它减少了接种疫苗的人在国际旅行方面的问题。世卫组织的紧急使用清单（EUL）意味着该疫苗有资格根据 COVAX 在全球范围内分发给中低收入国家。</blockquote></p><p> Shankar Musunuri, Ph.D., chairman, chief executive officer, and co-founder of Ocugen, said of the FDA application, “We are very excited to take this next step in the development of Covaxin, which we hope will bring us closer to introducing a different type of COVID-19 vaccine to the American public. We are hopeful that the study conducted under the IND, if allowed to proceed, will help demonstrate that the data from India will be applicable to the U.S. population.”</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 公司董事长、首席执行官兼联合创始人 Shankar Musunuri 博士在谈到 FDA 的申请时说：“我们非常高兴能在科瓦克辛的研发方面迈出下一步，我们希望这将使我们更接近向美国公众推出一种不同类型的 COVID-19 疫苗。我们希望，根据印度国家信息研究所进行的研究，如果获准继续进行，将有助于证明来自印度的数据将适用于美国人口。”</blockquote></p><p> The Phase III immuno-bridging study, if given the green light, would enroll several hundred healthy U.S. adults. The participants would be given either two doses of Covaxin or placebo, 28 days apart. The primary endpoint would compare&nbsp;blood samples from U.S. participants who received the vaccine with samples in the Phase III trial performed in India. A secondary endpoint is an immunogenic profile of the vaccine. It will also determine safety and tolerability in the U.S. population. Ocugen hopes to wrap up the study in the first half of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这项 III 期免疫桥接研究如果获得批准，将招募数百名健康的美国成年人。参与者将接受两剂科瓦克辛或安慰剂，间隔28天。主要终点将比较接受疫苗的美国参与者的血液样本与在印度进行的III期试验中的样本。次要终点是疫苗的免疫原性特征。它还将决定美国人群的安全性和耐受性。Ocugen 希望在 2022 年上半年完成这项研究。</blockquote></p><p> The Phase III trial in India performed by Bharat Biotech involved 25,798 participants who received the vaccine or placebo. The primary endpoint was the prevention of symptomatic COVID-19 within at least 14 days after the second dose.</p><p><blockquote>Bharat Biotech在印度进行的III期试验涉及25,798名接受疫苗或安慰剂的参与者。主要终点是在第二剂给药后至少14天内预防有症状的新冠肺炎。</blockquote></p><p> Data from that trial reported 93.4% efficacy against severe COVID-19, 77.8% efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19, and 63.6% against asymptomatic disease. A sub-analysis of the data looked at its effectiveness against variants. The analysis showed that 90% of infections were associated with a variant, and 59% were the Delta variant. The vaccine demonstrated 65.2% efficacy against Delta.</p><p><blockquote>该试验的数据显示，对严重新冠肺炎的有效率为93.4%，对有症状的新冠肺炎的有效率为77.8%，对无症状疾病的有效率为63.6%。对数据的子分析着眼于其对变异的有效性。分析显示，90%的感染与变异有关，59%是德尔塔变异毒株。该疫苗对Delta的有效性为65.2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OCGN":"Ocugen"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150864664","content_text":"Ocugen shares jumped 8.8% in premarket trading.Ocugen hopes to launch Phase III Trial of Covaxin in U.S.\n\nMalvern, Pa.-based Ocugen has submitted an Investigational New Drug (IND) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to run a Phase III trial of India’s BBV152 (Covaxin), a vaccine against COVID-19.\nPart of the trial’s goal is to determine if the vaccine’s immune response in a completed Phase III trial in India would be similar to the response in unvaccinated patients in the U.S. or those who have already received two doses of an mRNA vaccine.\nCovaxin is a whole-virion inactivated COVID-19 product. That means they take the SARS-CoV-2 virus, kill it, and use it as the vaccine. The possible advantage over other vaccines is it creates a broader immunity against the virus, not just the virus’s spike protein, or parts of the spike protein, as most other vaccines do. Covaxin would theoretically have similar efficacy against all variants, although it doesn’t seem to in trials.\nThe vaccine was jointly developed by India’s Bharat Biotech and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). Ocugen has a deal with Bharat to develop the vaccine in the U.S. and Canada. It has been distributed under emergency use authorizations in 17 countries.\nThe vaccine received emergency authorization in India on January 3, 2021. However, there has been along delayin authorization by the World Health Organization (WHO). This week, it got delayed once again as the WHO asked for additional information and clarifications from Bharat Biotech. The WHO expects to meet again for a final evaluation on November 3, if it receives the data.\nAlthough the WHO approval isn’t necessary for use in India or the U.S., it is necessary for the vaccine to be recognized by foreign countries. It allows for fewer problems for vaccinated people in terms of international travel. WHO’s Emergency use listing (EUL) would mean the vaccine was eligible for global distribution to low- and middle-income countries under COVAX.\nShankar Musunuri, Ph.D., chairman, chief executive officer, and co-founder of Ocugen, said of the FDA application, “We are very excited to take this next step in the development of Covaxin, which we hope will bring us closer to introducing a different type of COVID-19 vaccine to the American public. We are hopeful that the study conducted under the IND, if allowed to proceed, will help demonstrate that the data from India will be applicable to the U.S. population.”\nThe Phase III immuno-bridging study, if given the green light, would enroll several hundred healthy U.S. adults. The participants would be given either two doses of Covaxin or placebo, 28 days apart. The primary endpoint would compare blood samples from U.S. participants who received the vaccine with samples in the Phase III trial performed in India. A secondary endpoint is an immunogenic profile of the vaccine. It will also determine safety and tolerability in the U.S. population. Ocugen hopes to wrap up the study in the first half of 2022.\nThe Phase III trial in India performed by Bharat Biotech involved 25,798 participants who received the vaccine or placebo. The primary endpoint was the prevention of symptomatic COVID-19 within at least 14 days after the second dose.\nData from that trial reported 93.4% efficacy against severe COVID-19, 77.8% efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19, and 63.6% against asymptomatic disease. A sub-analysis of the data looked at its effectiveness against variants. The analysis showed that 90% of infections were associated with a variant, and 59% were the Delta variant. The vaccine demonstrated 65.2% efficacy against Delta.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OCGN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":852385256,"gmtCreate":1635243219724,"gmtModify":1635243219808,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095811186634540","idStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics(OCGN)$</a>Looking for more upside while waiting for WHO approval","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics(OCGN)$</a>Looking for more upside while waiting for WHO approval","text":"$Histogenics(OCGN)$Looking for more upside while waiting for WHO approval","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ce3c47380ff674e83d4832f524a4dba","width":"1125","height":"2847"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852385256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824817376,"gmtCreate":1634301276610,"gmtModify":1634301276690,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095811186634540","idStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CIFR\">$Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$</a>Will it continue to bounce back after creating a higher low from yesterday’s candle?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CIFR\">$Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$</a>Will it continue to bounce back after creating a higher low from yesterday’s candle?","text":"$Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$Will it continue to bounce back after creating a higher low from yesterday’s candle?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ebc67569356b96340d3f682e48e3703","width":"1125","height":"2847"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824817376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825253254,"gmtCreate":1634232723000,"gmtModify":1634232723000,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095811186634540","idStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">$New(NGD)$</a>Should stay above the&nbsp;support (blue line). Then we will see uptrend to retest the resistance line.&nbsp;DYOR","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NGD\">$New(NGD)$</a>Should stay above the&nbsp;support (blue line). Then we will see uptrend to retest the resistance line.&nbsp;DYOR","text":"$New(NGD)$Should stay above the support (blue line). Then we will see uptrend to retest the resistance line. DYOR","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6dfa9ac22e0e1960304b3a27a3caa1e8","width":"1125","height":"2671"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825253254","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":825632258,"gmtCreate":1634221062375,"gmtModify":1634221736540,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4095811186634540","idStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics(OCGN)$</a>Ocugen Inc. shares were trading higher since tuesday after Indian Government approved Bharat Biotech’s Covid-19 vaccine Covaxin, for children between the ages of 2 and 18. We will see &nbsp;a retest on previous high 18.77","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics(OCGN)$</a>Ocugen Inc. shares were trading higher since tuesday after Indian Government approved Bharat Biotech’s Covid-19 vaccine Covaxin, for children between the ages of 2 and 18. We will see &nbsp;a retest on previous high 18.77","text":"$Histogenics(OCGN)$Ocugen Inc. shares were trading higher since tuesday after Indian Government approved Bharat Biotech’s Covid-19 vaccine Covaxin, for children between the ages of 2 and 18. We will see a retest on previous high 18.77","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deea9acb44c925904d90664414763f0c","width":"1125","height":"2387"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825632258","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000367","authorId":"9000000000000367","name":"UriahMcCarthy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/755733cbc3b26020a558f49d6dcb6fc4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000367","idStr":"9000000000000367"},"content":"This is definitely good for SP in the long run. After all, the profit of vaccine is very high","text":"This is definitely good for SP in the long run. After all, the profit of vaccine is very high","html":"This is definitely good for SP in the long run. After all, the profit of vaccine is very high"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":825632258,"gmtCreate":1634221062375,"gmtModify":1634221736540,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095811186634540","authorIdStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics(OCGN)$</a>Ocugen Inc. shares were trading higher since tuesday after Indian Government approved Bharat Biotech’s Covid-19 vaccine Covaxin, for children between the ages of 2 and 18. We will see &nbsp;a retest on previous high 18.77","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics(OCGN)$</a>Ocugen Inc. shares were trading higher since tuesday after Indian Government approved Bharat Biotech’s Covid-19 vaccine Covaxin, for children between the ages of 2 and 18. We will see &nbsp;a retest on previous high 18.77","text":"$Histogenics(OCGN)$Ocugen Inc. shares were trading higher since tuesday after Indian Government approved Bharat Biotech’s Covid-19 vaccine Covaxin, for children between the ages of 2 and 18. We will see a retest on previous high 18.77","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/deea9acb44c925904d90664414763f0c","width":"1125","height":"2387"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825632258","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000367","authorId":"9000000000000367","name":"UriahMcCarthy","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/755733cbc3b26020a558f49d6dcb6fc4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000367","authorIdStr":"9000000000000367"},"content":"This is definitely good for SP in the long run. After all, the profit of vaccine is very high","text":"This is definitely good for SP in the long run. After all, the profit of vaccine is very high","html":"This is definitely good for SP in the long run. After all, the profit of vaccine is very high"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609882396,"gmtCreate":1638264652492,"gmtModify":1638264751186,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095811186634540","authorIdStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609882396","repostId":"2187586148","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4018,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841977689,"gmtCreate":1635873889386,"gmtModify":1635873889386,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095811186634540","authorIdStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAOS\">$Baosheng Media Group Holdings(BAOS)$</a>Parabolic move on smaller time frame?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAOS\">$Baosheng Media Group Holdings(BAOS)$</a>Parabolic move on smaller time frame?","text":"$Baosheng Media Group Holdings(BAOS)$Parabolic move on smaller time frame?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cbcf4e64707dc4ca9280b8e7844293a","width":"1125","height":"2915"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841977689","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841977324,"gmtCreate":1635873833618,"gmtModify":1635873833618,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095811186634540","authorIdStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAOS\">$Baosheng Media Group Holdings(BAOS)$</a>Parabolic move?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAOS\">$Baosheng Media Group Holdings(BAOS)$</a>Parabolic move?","text":"$Baosheng Media Group Holdings(BAOS)$Parabolic move?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841977324","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3435,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":877906693,"gmtCreate":1637853047935,"gmtModify":1637853048026,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095811186634540","authorIdStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASRT\">$Assertio Holdings, Inc.(ASRT)$</a>Bullish engulfing.Lets see if there is more volume when the marketopens.","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASRT\">$Assertio Holdings, Inc.(ASRT)$</a>Bullish engulfing.Lets see if there is more volume when the marketopens.","text":"$Assertio Holdings, Inc.(ASRT)$Bullish engulfing.Lets see if there is more volume when the marketopens.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9399d3060c23665d1cf40f5c800f5567","width":"1125","height":"2839"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/877906693","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":846974760,"gmtCreate":1636043917939,"gmtModify":1636043918042,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095811186634540","authorIdStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"this is the reason why it dumped","listText":"this is the reason why it dumped","text":"this is the reason why it dumped","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/846974760","repostId":"1168874793","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168874793","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636035446,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1168874793?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-04 22:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ocugen: WHO Approval For Covaxin Is Potentially A Red Herring For Investors<blockquote>Ocugen：世卫组织批准科瓦克辛可能是投资者的转移注意力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168874793","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nOcugen missed the opportunity to grab an Emergency Use Authorization for Covaxin in the US ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Ocugen missed the opportunity to grab an Emergency Use Authorization for Covaxin in the US earlier this year, but it could still gain an approval via a pivotal immuno-bridging study.</li>  <li>Meanwhile, Bharat has received WHO approval for Emergency Use Listing, meaning the vaccine can be distributed around the world - but that doesn't directly benefit Ocugen.</li>  <li>There are numerous possibilities in play, and Ocugen has no shortage of backers and shorts - the stock is up &gt;4,000% in the past year, but has trodden water for several months.</li>  <li>It's hard to determine what may be in store next for Ocugen shareholders, but if I were one, I'd be holding and hoping. I recap the full story below.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25648bf13e5cb82880f748129c72261c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>今年早些时候，Ocugen错过了在美国获得科瓦克辛紧急使用授权的机会，但它仍然可以通过一项关键的免疫桥接研究获得批准。</li><li>与此同时，Bharat 已获得世卫组织紧急使用清单批准，这意味着该疫苗可以在世界各地分发，但这并没有直接使 Ocugen 受益。</li><li>有许多可能性在发挥作用，Ocugen 并不缺乏支持者和空头 - 该股在过去一年中上涨了 4,000% 以上，但几个月来一直在下跌。</li><li>很难确定 Ocugen 股东接下来会发生什么，但如果我是其中之一，我会持有并希望。我在下面回顾一下整个故事。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Klaus Vedfelt/数字视觉，盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Bharat Biotech received an approval from the World Health Organization (\"WHO\") today to join the Emergency Use List (\"EUL\") for vaccines against COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>巴拉特生物技术公司今天获得世界卫生组织（“世卫组织”）的批准，加入新冠肺炎疫苗的紧急使用清单（“EUL”）。</blockquote></p><p> As most investors will know, Ocugen (OCGN) holds the rights to distribute Covaxin in the US on behalf of Bharat, in exchange for a 45% share of all profits. It also has a similar deal in place for Canada, standing to earn 55% of all profits.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者都知道，Ocugen (OCGN) 拥有代表 Bharat 在美国分销科瓦克辛的权利，以换取所有利润的 45% 份额。它在加拿大也有类似的交易，有望获得所有利润的55%。</blockquote></p><p> Ocugen investors and shorts will be nervously waiting to see how today's news affects the biotech's share price, which initially jumped to $16, but has fallen to $12 post-market.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 投资者和空头将紧张地等待今天的消息将如何影响这家生物技术公司的股价，该公司的股价最初跃升至 16 美元，但盘后已跌至 12 美元。</blockquote></p><p> In this post I recap the full story, updated from my&nbsp;last post in June, and offer some ways to think about Ocugen's share price in the short and long term.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇文章中，我回顾了我六月份上一篇文章更新的完整故事，并提供了一些短期和长期思考 Ocugen 股价的方法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ocugen Stock Jumps From $0.5 To $16 In 3 Months On Bharat COVID Vaccine Deal - The Story So Far</b></p><p><blockquote><b>由于 Bharat COVID 疫苗交易，Ocugen 股价在 3 个月内从 0.5 美元跃升至 16 美元 - 迄今为止的故事</b></blockquote></p><p> Ocugen is one of the more bizarre biotech stories of 2021. In mid-December 2020, its shares were trading &lt;$0.5, as the company struggled to develop a preclinical portfolio of gene therapy drug candidates targeting eye disease, having abandoned development of its lead candidate OCU300 in Graft vs Host Disease (\"GvHD\").</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen是2021年更离奇的生物技术故事之一。2020 年 12 月中旬，其股价低于 0.5 美元，因为该公司正在努力开发针对眼部疾病的基因治疗候选药物的临床前组合，放弃了移植物抗宿主病的主要候选药物 OCU300 的开发（“GvHD”）。</blockquote></p><p> A delisting from the Nasdaq looked a likely outcome for the company, but then Ocugen's fortunes changed dramatically - the biotech&nbsp;became a partner&nbsp;of Bharat Biotech, developer of the whole-virion inactivated vaccine candidate Covaxin, agreeing to help the Indian Pharma commercialise Covaxin in the US and Canada. Overnight, Ocugen's share price jumped to a price of $3, and by early February, it was trading at $16.</p><p><blockquote>从纳斯达克退市看起来是该公司可能的结果，但随后 Ocugen 的命运发生了巨大变化——该生物技术公司成为全病毒体灭活疫苗候选药物 Covaxin 的开发商 Bharat Biotech 的合作伙伴，同意帮助印度制药公司将 Covaxin 商业化在美国和加拿大。一夜之间，Ocugen 的股价跃升至 3 美元，到 2 月初，其交易价格为 16 美元。</blockquote></p><p> I covered the full story in a&nbsp;note on Ocugen&nbsp;back in June, when Ocugen's shares were trading in a slightly more down-to-earth range of $6 - $10. At that time, the key question was whether Covaxin would receive an Emergency Use Authorization (\"EUA\") from the FDA, allowing it to be marketed and sold in the US.</p><p><blockquote>早在 6 月份，我就在 Ocugen 的一篇笔记中讲述了整个故事，当时 Ocugen 的股价在 6 美元至 10 美元的范围内稍微实在一些。当时的关键问题是科瓦克辛是否会获得FDA的紧急使用授权（“EUA”），允许其在美国上市销售。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately for Ocugen investors, delays in Bharat's trials of Covaxin in India, where outbreaks of COVID had suddenly become widespread, meant that Ocugen could not get positive Phase 3 trial data in front of the FDA in time for a deadline imposed by the US government - after which it would not accept any further EUA requests for COVID-19 vaccines for the remainder of the pandemic for those companies that have not already begun discussions with the FDA.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Ocugen 投资者来说不幸的是，Bharat 在印度进行的科瓦克辛试验的延误意味着 Ocugen 无法在美国政府规定的最后期限前及时向 FDA 获得积极的 3 期试验数据 - 此后，对于那些尚未开始与 FDA 讨论的公司，它将不再接受任何进一步的 EUA 请求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ocugen And Bharat Stay The Course - Trials Reveal Strong Efficacy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Ocugen 和 Bharat 坚持到底 - 试验显示强效疗效</b></blockquote></p><p> The bad news about an EUA in the US did not deter Ocugen, Bharat, or Ocugen's investors, however. Despite heavy short interest, as many market watchers concluded Ocugen's share price would be decimated without an EUA for Covaxin in the US, Ocugen management felt that there were other options on the table, including obtaining an EUA in Canada, which falls under its agreement with Bharat, allowing Ocugen to earn 45% of all revenues earned in the region.</p><p><blockquote>然而，有关美国EUA的坏消息并没有阻止Ocugen、Bharat或Ocugen的投资者。尽管空头兴趣浓厚，但许多市场观察人士得出结论，如果没有美国科瓦克辛的 EUA，Ocugen 的股价将会大幅下跌，Ocugen 管理层认为还有其他选择，包括在加拿大获得 EUA，这属于其与 Bharat 的协议范围，使 Ocugen 能够赚取该地区所有收入的 45%。</blockquote></p><p> The results of Bharat's ~@5k patient Phase 3 trial in India also came out positive.</p><p><blockquote>Bharat在印度的~@5k患者3期试验结果也呈阳性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/862520ed53c876fb96840a3cb9a7a6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Summary of results of Bharat Biotech Phase 3 trial of Covaxin. Source: Ocugen Corporate Presentation.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Bharat Biotech科瓦克辛3期试验结果总结。资料来源：Ocugen公司演示文稿。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see above, Bharat's Covaxin (finally) delivered an efficacy readout of 77.8%, 93.4% efficacy against severe disease - and 65.2% efficacy against the delta variant - the most devastating of all the COVID strains. Furthermore, the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases advised that a novel vaccine adjuvant developed in Kansas, US with NIAID support, Alhydroxiquim-II, enhanced the overall efficacy of Covaxin.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们在上面看到的，巴拉特的科瓦克辛（最终）提供了77.8%的功效读数，对严重疾病的功效为93.4%，对德尔塔变异毒株的功效为65.2%，是所有新冠病毒毒株中最具破坏性的。此外，美国国家过敏和传染病研究所建议，在NIAID支持下，美国堪萨斯州开发的一种新型疫苗佐剂Alhydroxiquim-II增强了科瓦克辛的总体疗效。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bharat Pursues WHO Emergency Use Listing Whilst Ocugen Looks To Canada</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Bharat 寻求世卫组织紧急使用清单，而 Ocugen 则将目光投向加拿大</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> These results, as strong as they are - and it should be noted the efficacy of Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech's (BNTX) messenger-RNA Comirnaty vaccine against the Delta variant has&nbsp;dropped as low as 39%&nbsp;in studies in Israel - they arrived too late to help Ocugen secure an EUA in the US.</p><p><blockquote>这些结果尽管很有力——应该指出的是，辉瑞 (PFE) 和 BioNTech (BNTX) 信使 RNA Comirnaty 疫苗对德尔塔变异毒株病毒的效力在以色列的研究中已降至 39%——但它们来得太晚了，无法帮助 Ocugen 在美国获得 EUA。</blockquote></p><p> Ocugen turned its attention to Canada,announcing&nbsp;a rolling submission to Health Canada on July 15 through its affiliate, Vaccigen, Ltd<b>,</b>allowing for it to submit new data as and when it came in, accelerating the overall review process.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 将注意力转向加拿大，宣布于 7 月 15 日通过其附属公司 Vaccigen, Ltd. 向加拿大卫生部提交滚动申请<b>,</b>允许it在收到新数据时提交新数据，从而加快整体审查流程。</blockquote></p><p> If approved, Ocugen will earn 55% of all profits earned from the vaccine, but as I discussed in my&nbsp;last note when providing some discounted cash flow analysis&nbsp;based on optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, it's doubtful if the Canadian government's purchases alone would provide a significant boot to Ocugen's current market cap valuation of $2.5bn, or its share price of $12.7.</p><p><blockquote>如果获得批准，Ocugen 将获得疫苗所有利润的 55%，但正如我在上一篇文章中根据乐观和悲观情景提供一些贴现现金流分析时所讨论的那样，加拿大政府的采购是否会对 Ocugen 目前的市值估值 25 亿美元，或其股价 12.7 美元，这一点值得怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> The US is the key for Ocugen, and management has by no means given up on this opportunity. In late October, Ocugen made an Investigational New Drug (\"IND\")&nbsp;submission&nbsp;to the FDA. Ocugen's plan is to initiate a Phase 3 \"immuno-bridging study,\" enrolling several hundred healthy adults in the U.S, who will receive 2 doses of Covaxin or placebo, 28 days apart. The endpoints are described by management (in an October 27th press release) as follows:</p><p><blockquote>美国是Ocugen的关键，管理层绝不会放弃这个机会。10月下旬，Ocugen向FDA提交了研究性新药（“IND”）。Ocugen 的计划是启动一项 3 期“免疫桥接研究”，在美国招募数百名健康成年人，他们将接受 2 剂科瓦克辛或安慰剂，间隔 28 天。管理层（在 10 月 27 日的新闻稿中）对终点进行了如下描述：</blockquote></p><p>   The primary endpoint will compare blood-based samples taken from U.S. participants who received COVAXIN™ with samples of the participants in the Phase 3 efficacy trial conducted in India. The secondary endpoint involves testing the vaccine's immunogenic profile. The study will also evaluate safety and tolerability in the U.S. population.  Ocugen hopes to have the study complete before the end of H122, if it is approved by the FDA, which has yet to make a decision. If the FDA does give the green light, then the US market - and Ocugen's 45% of all profits - is suddenly back on the table.</p><p><blockquote>主要终点将比较从接受科瓦克辛的美国参与者身上采集的血液样本™在印度进行的3期疗效试验的参与者样本。次要终点包括测试疫苗的免疫原性特征。该研究还将评估美国人群的安全性和耐受性。Ocugen希望在H122结束前完成研究，如果获得FDA的批准，FDA尚未做出决定。如果 FDA 确实开了绿灯，那么美国市场——以及 Ocugen 所有利润的 45%——就会突然回到桌面上。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Bharat Biotech&nbsp;received notification&nbsp;today that the World Health Organization has approved its application for an Emergency Use Listing (\"EUL\"), meaning Covaxin will now likely be accepted by a host of foreign governments, and that Indians who have received the vaccine will have fewer problems traveling overseas.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Bharat Biotech今天收到通知，世界卫生组织已经批准了其紧急使用清单（“EUL”）的申请，这意味着科瓦克辛现在可能会被许多外国政府接受，接种疫苗的印度人出国旅行将减少问题。</blockquote></p><p> It's great news for Bharat, who join the likes of Pfizer / BioNTech, Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ), SinoPharm, Moderna (MRNA) and AstraZeneca (AZN) on the list of EUL-approved vaccine developers - but it is not necessarily great news for Ocugen.</p><p><blockquote>这对Bharat来说是个好消息，他加入了辉瑞/BioNTech、强生（JNJ）、国药集团、Moderna（MRNA）和阿斯利康（AZN）等公司的行列，成为EUL批准的疫苗开发商，但对Ocugen来说不一定是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccines on the EUL list are permitted to be sent to government's around the world as part of the&nbsp;COVAX scheme, designed to create equitable vaccine distribution around the world, including poorer countries, but the US is a donor to this scheme, not a beneficiary, meaning that Ocugen effectively gets no benefit, and no revenues, as a result of the WHO approval for Covaxin.</p><p><blockquote>作为COVAX计划的一部分，EUL名单上的疫苗被允许发送到世界各地的政府，该计划旨在在世界各地（包括较贫穷的国家）建立公平的疫苗分配，但美国是该计划的捐助者，而不是受益者，这意味着由于世卫组织批准科瓦克辛，Ocugen实际上没有获得任何好处和收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ocugen Stock Is Already On A Downtrend - All Eyes Will Now Be On Health Canada And The FDA</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Ocugen 股票已经处于下跌趋势 - 现在所有的目光都将集中在加拿大卫生部和 FDA 上</b></blockquote></p><p> Ocugen stock bounced from a price of ~$9, to a peak of ~$16 in trading today, however the share price quickly began to decline, and finished at a price of $12.7. Post-market, shares were down another 10%.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 股票在今天的交易中从约 9 美元的价格反弹至约 16 美元的峰值，但股价很快开始下跌，最终以 12.7 美元的价格收盘。盘后，股价又下跌10%。</blockquote></p><p> That reflects the fact that the WHO approval for Covaxin does little to improve Ocugen's own fortunes, and in all honesty, was something of a red herring.</p><p><blockquote>这反映了这样一个事实，即世卫组织对科瓦克辛的批准对改善奥库根自己的命运没有什么帮助，老实说，这是一种转移视线。</blockquote></p><p> Ocugen investors, and Ocugen shorts, are desperate to know what the future holds for Covaxin in the US and Canada, but they will have to wait until Health Canada and the FDA rule respectively on an Emergency Use Authorization, and an approval to begin a drastically reduced pivotal trial in the US.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 投资者和 Ocugen shorts 迫切希望知道科瓦克辛在美国和加拿大的未来，但他们必须等到加拿大卫生部和 FDA 分别就紧急使用授权做出裁决，并批准在美国开始一项大幅减少的关键试验。</blockquote></p><p> Ironically, despite all of the news flow and the publication of Covaxin Phase 3 trial data, and the EUA granted to Covaxin by the Indian government, Ocugen's fortunes are in a similar place to where they were when I last covered the company - barring the US EUA opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>具有讽刺意味的是，尽管有所有的新闻流和科瓦克辛3期试验数据的公布，以及印度政府授予科瓦克辛的EUA，Ocugen的命运与我上次报道该公司时的情况相似——除了美国的EUA机会。</blockquote></p><p> That opportunity - the one that may have sent Ocugen shares through the roof - has gone, but as I argued in my last post, I think it's possible that the US would not object to stockpiling some of the Covaxin shot, which has a differentiated mechanism of action, and a shelf life of up to years if stored at 2- 8 degrees centigrade.</p><p><blockquote>这个机会——可能会让 Ocugen 股票暴跌的机会——已经一去不复返了，但正如我在上一篇文章中所说，我认为美国可能不会反对储备一些科瓦克辛子弹，它具有不同的作用机制，如果储存在 2-8 摄氏度下，保质期可达数年。</blockquote></p><p> Covaxin may have benefits that other vaccines do not, the reasoning may go, such as its ability to induce a Th1 response, conferring cell-mediated immunity and offering durable protection, and enhanced protection against COVID variants, which is the primary concern at the present time.</p><p><blockquote>科瓦克辛可能具有其他疫苗没有的好处，理由可能是这样的，例如它能够诱导Th1反应，赋予细胞介导的免疫并提供持久的保护，以及增强对COVID变种的保护，这是目前的主要问题。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, the US may now be able to obtain supply directly from Bharat via the WHO and be in a position to cut Ocugen - the middleman - out of any deal.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，美国现在可能能够通过世卫组织直接从巴拉特获得供应，并能够将中间人Ocugen排除在任何交易之外。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The fact of the matter is that Ocugen's opportunity with Bharat and Covaxin has always appeared to be one that required expediency of execution, in order to capitalize on a US market opportunity that's uncertain, perhaps negligible, at worst, and a potential multi-billion opportunity at best.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，Ocugen与巴拉特和科瓦克辛的机会似乎总是需要执行权宜之计，以便利用美国市场的机会，这个机会在最坏的情况下是不确定的，也许可以忽略不计，在最好的情况下是潜在的数十亿美元的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Nobody knows even if Ocugen will get an opportunity to market Covaxin in the US, but if it does, it will need to negotiate a tricky Phase 3 trial first, which could take us into the latter half of next year. Equally, no-one yet knows if Health Canada will approve the vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>甚至没有人知道 Ocugen 是否会有机会在美国销售科瓦克辛，但如果有机会，它将需要首先谈判一项棘手的 3 期试验，这可能会让我们进入明年下半年。同样，还没有人知道加拿大卫生部是否会批准这种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> To summarise the current state of affairs, I would lean toward an approval in Canada - if Covaxin is good enough for the WHO, why would it not be good enough for Canada?</p><p><blockquote>总结目前的情况，我倾向于加拿大的批准——如果科瓦克辛对世卫组织来说足够好，为什么对加拿大来说就不够好呢？</blockquote></p><p> But how much product will Canada buy? Probably enough to create a substantial price spike for Ocugen stock, although demand is unlikely to be high enough to sustain that spike long term.</p><p><blockquote>但是加拿大会购买多少产品呢？可能足以给 Ocugen 股票带来大幅价格飙升，尽管需求不太可能高到足以长期维持这种飙升。</blockquote></p><p> How much would the US buy if Covaxin was approved in the US? Again, I cannot see it being a high enough volume to catapult Ocugen's market cap above say $10bn, but if it buys any at all, Ocugen's market valuation is more or less guaranteed to surge, at least temporarily.</p><p><blockquote>如果科瓦克辛在美国获得批准，美国会购买多少？同样，我认为这个交易量不足以让 Ocugen 的市值突破 100 亿美元，但如果它购买任何股票，Ocugen 的市场估值或多或少肯定会飙升，至少是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, I would argue that there is enough intrigue and opportunity in the Ocugen story to keep investors interested - on both the short and long sides. The WHO approval does not directly benefit Ocugen revenues wise, but it's another win for Covaxin, which is in turn a win for Ocugen.</p><p><blockquote>总之，我认为 Ocugen 的故事中有足够的阴谋和机会来保持投资者的兴趣——无论是空头还是多头。世卫组织的批准并没有直接有利于 Ocugen 的收入，但这是科瓦克辛的又一次胜利，而这反过来又是 Ocugen 的胜利。</blockquote></p><p> If I has been holding Ocugen stock since December last year, when it traded at &gt;$0.5, frankly I would have sold by now, but if I had opened a position at ~$10, in expectation of doubling my money on a US approval, I would still be (nervously) holding.</p><p><blockquote>如果我自去年 12 月以来一直持有 Ocugen 股票，当时它的交易价格超过 0.5 美元，坦率地说，我现在已经卖出了，但如果我以约 10 美元的价格开仓，预计在美国批准后将资金翻倍，我仍然会（紧张地）持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ocugen: WHO Approval For Covaxin Is Potentially A Red Herring For Investors<blockquote>Ocugen：世卫组织批准科瓦克辛可能是投资者的转移注意力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOcugen: WHO Approval For Covaxin Is Potentially A Red Herring For Investors<blockquote>Ocugen：世卫组织批准科瓦克辛可能是投资者的转移注意力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-04 22:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Ocugen missed the opportunity to grab an Emergency Use Authorization for Covaxin in the US earlier this year, but it could still gain an approval via a pivotal immuno-bridging study.</li>  <li>Meanwhile, Bharat has received WHO approval for Emergency Use Listing, meaning the vaccine can be distributed around the world - but that doesn't directly benefit Ocugen.</li>  <li>There are numerous possibilities in play, and Ocugen has no shortage of backers and shorts - the stock is up &gt;4,000% in the past year, but has trodden water for several months.</li>  <li>It's hard to determine what may be in store next for Ocugen shareholders, but if I were one, I'd be holding and hoping. I recap the full story below.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25648bf13e5cb82880f748129c72261c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Klaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>今年早些时候，Ocugen错过了在美国获得科瓦克辛紧急使用授权的机会，但它仍然可以通过一项关键的免疫桥接研究获得批准。</li><li>与此同时，Bharat 已获得世卫组织紧急使用清单批准，这意味着该疫苗可以在世界各地分发，但这并没有直接使 Ocugen 受益。</li><li>有许多可能性在发挥作用，Ocugen 并不缺乏支持者和空头 - 该股在过去一年中上涨了 4,000% 以上，但几个月来一直在下跌。</li><li>很难确定 Ocugen 股东接下来会发生什么，但如果我是其中之一，我会持有并希望。我在下面回顾一下整个故事。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Klaus Vedfelt/数字视觉，盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Bharat Biotech received an approval from the World Health Organization (\"WHO\") today to join the Emergency Use List (\"EUL\") for vaccines against COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>巴拉特生物技术公司今天获得世界卫生组织（“世卫组织”）的批准，加入新冠肺炎疫苗的紧急使用清单（“EUL”）。</blockquote></p><p> As most investors will know, Ocugen (OCGN) holds the rights to distribute Covaxin in the US on behalf of Bharat, in exchange for a 45% share of all profits. It also has a similar deal in place for Canada, standing to earn 55% of all profits.</p><p><blockquote>大多数投资者都知道，Ocugen (OCGN) 拥有代表 Bharat 在美国分销科瓦克辛的权利，以换取所有利润的 45% 份额。它在加拿大也有类似的交易，有望获得所有利润的55%。</blockquote></p><p> Ocugen investors and shorts will be nervously waiting to see how today's news affects the biotech's share price, which initially jumped to $16, but has fallen to $12 post-market.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 投资者和空头将紧张地等待今天的消息将如何影响这家生物技术公司的股价，该公司的股价最初跃升至 16 美元，但盘后已跌至 12 美元。</blockquote></p><p> In this post I recap the full story, updated from my&nbsp;last post in June, and offer some ways to think about Ocugen's share price in the short and long term.</p><p><blockquote>在这篇文章中，我回顾了我六月份上一篇文章更新的完整故事，并提供了一些短期和长期思考 Ocugen 股价的方法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ocugen Stock Jumps From $0.5 To $16 In 3 Months On Bharat COVID Vaccine Deal - The Story So Far</b></p><p><blockquote><b>由于 Bharat COVID 疫苗交易，Ocugen 股价在 3 个月内从 0.5 美元跃升至 16 美元 - 迄今为止的故事</b></blockquote></p><p> Ocugen is one of the more bizarre biotech stories of 2021. In mid-December 2020, its shares were trading &lt;$0.5, as the company struggled to develop a preclinical portfolio of gene therapy drug candidates targeting eye disease, having abandoned development of its lead candidate OCU300 in Graft vs Host Disease (\"GvHD\").</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen是2021年更离奇的生物技术故事之一。2020 年 12 月中旬，其股价低于 0.5 美元，因为该公司正在努力开发针对眼部疾病的基因治疗候选药物的临床前组合，放弃了移植物抗宿主病的主要候选药物 OCU300 的开发（“GvHD”）。</blockquote></p><p> A delisting from the Nasdaq looked a likely outcome for the company, but then Ocugen's fortunes changed dramatically - the biotech&nbsp;became a partner&nbsp;of Bharat Biotech, developer of the whole-virion inactivated vaccine candidate Covaxin, agreeing to help the Indian Pharma commercialise Covaxin in the US and Canada. Overnight, Ocugen's share price jumped to a price of $3, and by early February, it was trading at $16.</p><p><blockquote>从纳斯达克退市看起来是该公司可能的结果，但随后 Ocugen 的命运发生了巨大变化——该生物技术公司成为全病毒体灭活疫苗候选药物 Covaxin 的开发商 Bharat Biotech 的合作伙伴，同意帮助印度制药公司将 Covaxin 商业化在美国和加拿大。一夜之间，Ocugen 的股价跃升至 3 美元，到 2 月初，其交易价格为 16 美元。</blockquote></p><p> I covered the full story in a&nbsp;note on Ocugen&nbsp;back in June, when Ocugen's shares were trading in a slightly more down-to-earth range of $6 - $10. At that time, the key question was whether Covaxin would receive an Emergency Use Authorization (\"EUA\") from the FDA, allowing it to be marketed and sold in the US.</p><p><blockquote>早在 6 月份，我就在 Ocugen 的一篇笔记中讲述了整个故事，当时 Ocugen 的股价在 6 美元至 10 美元的范围内稍微实在一些。当时的关键问题是科瓦克辛是否会获得FDA的紧急使用授权（“EUA”），允许其在美国上市销售。</blockquote></p><p> Unfortunately for Ocugen investors, delays in Bharat's trials of Covaxin in India, where outbreaks of COVID had suddenly become widespread, meant that Ocugen could not get positive Phase 3 trial data in front of the FDA in time for a deadline imposed by the US government - after which it would not accept any further EUA requests for COVID-19 vaccines for the remainder of the pandemic for those companies that have not already begun discussions with the FDA.</p><p><blockquote>对于 Ocugen 投资者来说不幸的是，Bharat 在印度进行的科瓦克辛试验的延误意味着 Ocugen 无法在美国政府规定的最后期限前及时向 FDA 获得积极的 3 期试验数据 - 此后，对于那些尚未开始与 FDA 讨论的公司，它将不再接受任何进一步的 EUA 请求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ocugen And Bharat Stay The Course - Trials Reveal Strong Efficacy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Ocugen 和 Bharat 坚持到底 - 试验显示强效疗效</b></blockquote></p><p> The bad news about an EUA in the US did not deter Ocugen, Bharat, or Ocugen's investors, however. Despite heavy short interest, as many market watchers concluded Ocugen's share price would be decimated without an EUA for Covaxin in the US, Ocugen management felt that there were other options on the table, including obtaining an EUA in Canada, which falls under its agreement with Bharat, allowing Ocugen to earn 45% of all revenues earned in the region.</p><p><blockquote>然而，有关美国EUA的坏消息并没有阻止Ocugen、Bharat或Ocugen的投资者。尽管空头兴趣浓厚，但许多市场观察人士得出结论，如果没有美国科瓦克辛的 EUA，Ocugen 的股价将会大幅下跌，Ocugen 管理层认为还有其他选择，包括在加拿大获得 EUA，这属于其与 Bharat 的协议范围，使 Ocugen 能够赚取该地区所有收入的 45%。</blockquote></p><p> The results of Bharat's ~@5k patient Phase 3 trial in India also came out positive.</p><p><blockquote>Bharat在印度的~@5k患者3期试验结果也呈阳性。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/862520ed53c876fb96840a3cb9a7a6f9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Summary of results of Bharat Biotech Phase 3 trial of Covaxin. Source: Ocugen Corporate Presentation.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Bharat Biotech科瓦克辛3期试验结果总结。资料来源：Ocugen公司演示文稿。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see above, Bharat's Covaxin (finally) delivered an efficacy readout of 77.8%, 93.4% efficacy against severe disease - and 65.2% efficacy against the delta variant - the most devastating of all the COVID strains. Furthermore, the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases advised that a novel vaccine adjuvant developed in Kansas, US with NIAID support, Alhydroxiquim-II, enhanced the overall efficacy of Covaxin.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们在上面看到的，巴拉特的科瓦克辛（最终）提供了77.8%的功效读数，对严重疾病的功效为93.4%，对德尔塔变异毒株的功效为65.2%，是所有新冠病毒毒株中最具破坏性的。此外，美国国家过敏和传染病研究所建议，在NIAID支持下，美国堪萨斯州开发的一种新型疫苗佐剂Alhydroxiquim-II增强了科瓦克辛的总体疗效。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bharat Pursues WHO Emergency Use Listing Whilst Ocugen Looks To Canada</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Bharat 寻求世卫组织紧急使用清单，而 Ocugen 则将目光投向加拿大</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> These results, as strong as they are - and it should be noted the efficacy of Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech's (BNTX) messenger-RNA Comirnaty vaccine against the Delta variant has&nbsp;dropped as low as 39%&nbsp;in studies in Israel - they arrived too late to help Ocugen secure an EUA in the US.</p><p><blockquote>这些结果尽管很有力——应该指出的是，辉瑞 (PFE) 和 BioNTech (BNTX) 信使 RNA Comirnaty 疫苗对德尔塔变异毒株病毒的效力在以色列的研究中已降至 39%——但它们来得太晚了，无法帮助 Ocugen 在美国获得 EUA。</blockquote></p><p> Ocugen turned its attention to Canada,announcing&nbsp;a rolling submission to Health Canada on July 15 through its affiliate, Vaccigen, Ltd<b>,</b>allowing for it to submit new data as and when it came in, accelerating the overall review process.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 将注意力转向加拿大，宣布于 7 月 15 日通过其附属公司 Vaccigen, Ltd. 向加拿大卫生部提交滚动申请<b>,</b>允许it在收到新数据时提交新数据，从而加快整体审查流程。</blockquote></p><p> If approved, Ocugen will earn 55% of all profits earned from the vaccine, but as I discussed in my&nbsp;last note when providing some discounted cash flow analysis&nbsp;based on optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, it's doubtful if the Canadian government's purchases alone would provide a significant boot to Ocugen's current market cap valuation of $2.5bn, or its share price of $12.7.</p><p><blockquote>如果获得批准，Ocugen 将获得疫苗所有利润的 55%，但正如我在上一篇文章中根据乐观和悲观情景提供一些贴现现金流分析时所讨论的那样，加拿大政府的采购是否会对 Ocugen 目前的市值估值 25 亿美元，或其股价 12.7 美元，这一点值得怀疑。</blockquote></p><p> The US is the key for Ocugen, and management has by no means given up on this opportunity. In late October, Ocugen made an Investigational New Drug (\"IND\")&nbsp;submission&nbsp;to the FDA. Ocugen's plan is to initiate a Phase 3 \"immuno-bridging study,\" enrolling several hundred healthy adults in the U.S, who will receive 2 doses of Covaxin or placebo, 28 days apart. The endpoints are described by management (in an October 27th press release) as follows:</p><p><blockquote>美国是Ocugen的关键，管理层绝不会放弃这个机会。10月下旬，Ocugen向FDA提交了研究性新药（“IND”）。Ocugen 的计划是启动一项 3 期“免疫桥接研究”，在美国招募数百名健康成年人，他们将接受 2 剂科瓦克辛或安慰剂，间隔 28 天。管理层（在 10 月 27 日的新闻稿中）对终点进行了如下描述：</blockquote></p><p>   The primary endpoint will compare blood-based samples taken from U.S. participants who received COVAXIN™ with samples of the participants in the Phase 3 efficacy trial conducted in India. The secondary endpoint involves testing the vaccine's immunogenic profile. The study will also evaluate safety and tolerability in the U.S. population.  Ocugen hopes to have the study complete before the end of H122, if it is approved by the FDA, which has yet to make a decision. If the FDA does give the green light, then the US market - and Ocugen's 45% of all profits - is suddenly back on the table.</p><p><blockquote>主要终点将比较从接受科瓦克辛的美国参与者身上采集的血液样本™在印度进行的3期疗效试验的参与者样本。次要终点包括测试疫苗的免疫原性特征。该研究还将评估美国人群的安全性和耐受性。Ocugen希望在H122结束前完成研究，如果获得FDA的批准，FDA尚未做出决定。如果 FDA 确实开了绿灯，那么美国市场——以及 Ocugen 所有利润的 45%——就会突然回到桌面上。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, Bharat Biotech&nbsp;received notification&nbsp;today that the World Health Organization has approved its application for an Emergency Use Listing (\"EUL\"), meaning Covaxin will now likely be accepted by a host of foreign governments, and that Indians who have received the vaccine will have fewer problems traveling overseas.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，Bharat Biotech今天收到通知，世界卫生组织已经批准了其紧急使用清单（“EUL”）的申请，这意味着科瓦克辛现在可能会被许多外国政府接受，接种疫苗的印度人出国旅行将减少问题。</blockquote></p><p> It's great news for Bharat, who join the likes of Pfizer / BioNTech, Johnson &amp; Johnson (JNJ), SinoPharm, Moderna (MRNA) and AstraZeneca (AZN) on the list of EUL-approved vaccine developers - but it is not necessarily great news for Ocugen.</p><p><blockquote>这对Bharat来说是个好消息，他加入了辉瑞/BioNTech、强生（JNJ）、国药集团、Moderna（MRNA）和阿斯利康（AZN）等公司的行列，成为EUL批准的疫苗开发商，但对Ocugen来说不一定是个好消息。</blockquote></p><p> Vaccines on the EUL list are permitted to be sent to government's around the world as part of the&nbsp;COVAX scheme, designed to create equitable vaccine distribution around the world, including poorer countries, but the US is a donor to this scheme, not a beneficiary, meaning that Ocugen effectively gets no benefit, and no revenues, as a result of the WHO approval for Covaxin.</p><p><blockquote>作为COVAX计划的一部分，EUL名单上的疫苗被允许发送到世界各地的政府，该计划旨在在世界各地（包括较贫穷的国家）建立公平的疫苗分配，但美国是该计划的捐助者，而不是受益者，这意味着由于世卫组织批准科瓦克辛，Ocugen实际上没有获得任何好处和收入。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ocugen Stock Is Already On A Downtrend - All Eyes Will Now Be On Health Canada And The FDA</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Ocugen 股票已经处于下跌趋势 - 现在所有的目光都将集中在加拿大卫生部和 FDA 上</b></blockquote></p><p> Ocugen stock bounced from a price of ~$9, to a peak of ~$16 in trading today, however the share price quickly began to decline, and finished at a price of $12.7. Post-market, shares were down another 10%.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 股票在今天的交易中从约 9 美元的价格反弹至约 16 美元的峰值，但股价很快开始下跌，最终以 12.7 美元的价格收盘。盘后，股价又下跌10%。</blockquote></p><p> That reflects the fact that the WHO approval for Covaxin does little to improve Ocugen's own fortunes, and in all honesty, was something of a red herring.</p><p><blockquote>这反映了这样一个事实，即世卫组织对科瓦克辛的批准对改善奥库根自己的命运没有什么帮助，老实说，这是一种转移视线。</blockquote></p><p> Ocugen investors, and Ocugen shorts, are desperate to know what the future holds for Covaxin in the US and Canada, but they will have to wait until Health Canada and the FDA rule respectively on an Emergency Use Authorization, and an approval to begin a drastically reduced pivotal trial in the US.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 投资者和 Ocugen shorts 迫切希望知道科瓦克辛在美国和加拿大的未来，但他们必须等到加拿大卫生部和 FDA 分别就紧急使用授权做出裁决，并批准在美国开始一项大幅减少的关键试验。</blockquote></p><p> Ironically, despite all of the news flow and the publication of Covaxin Phase 3 trial data, and the EUA granted to Covaxin by the Indian government, Ocugen's fortunes are in a similar place to where they were when I last covered the company - barring the US EUA opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>具有讽刺意味的是，尽管有所有的新闻流和科瓦克辛3期试验数据的公布，以及印度政府授予科瓦克辛的EUA，Ocugen的命运与我上次报道该公司时的情况相似——除了美国的EUA机会。</blockquote></p><p> That opportunity - the one that may have sent Ocugen shares through the roof - has gone, but as I argued in my last post, I think it's possible that the US would not object to stockpiling some of the Covaxin shot, which has a differentiated mechanism of action, and a shelf life of up to years if stored at 2- 8 degrees centigrade.</p><p><blockquote>这个机会——可能会让 Ocugen 股票暴跌的机会——已经一去不复返了，但正如我在上一篇文章中所说，我认为美国可能不会反对储备一些科瓦克辛子弹，它具有不同的作用机制，如果储存在 2-8 摄氏度下，保质期可达数年。</blockquote></p><p> Covaxin may have benefits that other vaccines do not, the reasoning may go, such as its ability to induce a Th1 response, conferring cell-mediated immunity and offering durable protection, and enhanced protection against COVID variants, which is the primary concern at the present time.</p><p><blockquote>科瓦克辛可能具有其他疫苗没有的好处，理由可能是这样的，例如它能够诱导Th1反应，赋予细胞介导的免疫并提供持久的保护，以及增强对COVID变种的保护，这是目前的主要问题。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, the US may now be able to obtain supply directly from Bharat via the WHO and be in a position to cut Ocugen - the middleman - out of any deal.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，美国现在可能能够通过世卫组织直接从巴拉特获得供应，并能够将中间人Ocugen排除在任何交易之外。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The fact of the matter is that Ocugen's opportunity with Bharat and Covaxin has always appeared to be one that required expediency of execution, in order to capitalize on a US market opportunity that's uncertain, perhaps negligible, at worst, and a potential multi-billion opportunity at best.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，Ocugen与巴拉特和科瓦克辛的机会似乎总是需要执行权宜之计，以便利用美国市场的机会，这个机会在最坏的情况下是不确定的，也许可以忽略不计，在最好的情况下是潜在的数十亿美元的机会。</blockquote></p><p> Nobody knows even if Ocugen will get an opportunity to market Covaxin in the US, but if it does, it will need to negotiate a tricky Phase 3 trial first, which could take us into the latter half of next year. Equally, no-one yet knows if Health Canada will approve the vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>甚至没有人知道 Ocugen 是否会有机会在美国销售科瓦克辛，但如果有机会，它将需要首先谈判一项棘手的 3 期试验，这可能会让我们进入明年下半年。同样，还没有人知道加拿大卫生部是否会批准这种疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> To summarise the current state of affairs, I would lean toward an approval in Canada - if Covaxin is good enough for the WHO, why would it not be good enough for Canada?</p><p><blockquote>总结目前的情况，我倾向于加拿大的批准——如果科瓦克辛对世卫组织来说足够好，为什么对加拿大来说就不够好呢？</blockquote></p><p> But how much product will Canada buy? Probably enough to create a substantial price spike for Ocugen stock, although demand is unlikely to be high enough to sustain that spike long term.</p><p><blockquote>但是加拿大会购买多少产品呢？可能足以给 Ocugen 股票带来大幅价格飙升，尽管需求不太可能高到足以长期维持这种飙升。</blockquote></p><p> How much would the US buy if Covaxin was approved in the US? Again, I cannot see it being a high enough volume to catapult Ocugen's market cap above say $10bn, but if it buys any at all, Ocugen's market valuation is more or less guaranteed to surge, at least temporarily.</p><p><blockquote>如果科瓦克辛在美国获得批准，美国会购买多少？同样，我认为这个交易量不足以让 Ocugen 的市值突破 100 亿美元，但如果它购买任何股票，Ocugen 的市场估值或多或少肯定会飙升，至少是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> In conclusion, I would argue that there is enough intrigue and opportunity in the Ocugen story to keep investors interested - on both the short and long sides. The WHO approval does not directly benefit Ocugen revenues wise, but it's another win for Covaxin, which is in turn a win for Ocugen.</p><p><blockquote>总之，我认为 Ocugen 的故事中有足够的阴谋和机会来保持投资者的兴趣——无论是空头还是多头。世卫组织的批准并没有直接有利于 Ocugen 的收入，但这是科瓦克辛的又一次胜利，而这反过来又是 Ocugen 的胜利。</blockquote></p><p> If I has been holding Ocugen stock since December last year, when it traded at &gt;$0.5, frankly I would have sold by now, but if I had opened a position at ~$10, in expectation of doubling my money on a US approval, I would still be (nervously) holding.</p><p><blockquote>如果我自去年 12 月以来一直持有 Ocugen 股票，当时它的交易价格超过 0.5 美元，坦率地说，我现在已经卖出了，但如果我以约 10 美元的价格开仓，预计在美国批准后将资金翻倍，我仍然会（紧张地）持有。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4465154-ocugen-approval-for-covaxin-red-herring-for-investors\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OCGN":"Ocugen"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4465154-ocugen-approval-for-covaxin-red-herring-for-investors","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168874793","content_text":"Summary\n\nOcugen missed the opportunity to grab an Emergency Use Authorization for Covaxin in the US earlier this year, but it could still gain an approval via a pivotal immuno-bridging study.\nMeanwhile, Bharat has received WHO approval for Emergency Use Listing, meaning the vaccine can be distributed around the world - but that doesn't directly benefit Ocugen.\nThere are numerous possibilities in play, and Ocugen has no shortage of backers and shorts - the stock is up >4,000% in the past year, but has trodden water for several months.\nIt's hard to determine what may be in store next for Ocugen shareholders, but if I were one, I'd be holding and hoping. I recap the full story below.\n\nKlaus Vedfelt/DigitalVision via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nBharat Biotech received an approval from the World Health Organization (\"WHO\") today to join the Emergency Use List (\"EUL\") for vaccines against COVID-19.\nAs most investors will know, Ocugen (OCGN) holds the rights to distribute Covaxin in the US on behalf of Bharat, in exchange for a 45% share of all profits. It also has a similar deal in place for Canada, standing to earn 55% of all profits.\nOcugen investors and shorts will be nervously waiting to see how today's news affects the biotech's share price, which initially jumped to $16, but has fallen to $12 post-market.\nIn this post I recap the full story, updated from my last post in June, and offer some ways to think about Ocugen's share price in the short and long term.\nOcugen Stock Jumps From $0.5 To $16 In 3 Months On Bharat COVID Vaccine Deal - The Story So Far\nOcugen is one of the more bizarre biotech stories of 2021. In mid-December 2020, its shares were trading <$0.5, as the company struggled to develop a preclinical portfolio of gene therapy drug candidates targeting eye disease, having abandoned development of its lead candidate OCU300 in Graft vs Host Disease (\"GvHD\").\nA delisting from the Nasdaq looked a likely outcome for the company, but then Ocugen's fortunes changed dramatically - the biotech became a partner of Bharat Biotech, developer of the whole-virion inactivated vaccine candidate Covaxin, agreeing to help the Indian Pharma commercialise Covaxin in the US and Canada. Overnight, Ocugen's share price jumped to a price of $3, and by early February, it was trading at $16.\nI covered the full story in a note on Ocugen back in June, when Ocugen's shares were trading in a slightly more down-to-earth range of $6 - $10. At that time, the key question was whether Covaxin would receive an Emergency Use Authorization (\"EUA\") from the FDA, allowing it to be marketed and sold in the US.\nUnfortunately for Ocugen investors, delays in Bharat's trials of Covaxin in India, where outbreaks of COVID had suddenly become widespread, meant that Ocugen could not get positive Phase 3 trial data in front of the FDA in time for a deadline imposed by the US government - after which it would not accept any further EUA requests for COVID-19 vaccines for the remainder of the pandemic for those companies that have not already begun discussions with the FDA.\nOcugen And Bharat Stay The Course - Trials Reveal Strong Efficacy\nThe bad news about an EUA in the US did not deter Ocugen, Bharat, or Ocugen's investors, however. Despite heavy short interest, as many market watchers concluded Ocugen's share price would be decimated without an EUA for Covaxin in the US, Ocugen management felt that there were other options on the table, including obtaining an EUA in Canada, which falls under its agreement with Bharat, allowing Ocugen to earn 45% of all revenues earned in the region.\nThe results of Bharat's ~@5k patient Phase 3 trial in India also came out positive.\nSummary of results of Bharat Biotech Phase 3 trial of Covaxin. Source: Ocugen Corporate Presentation.\nAs we can see above, Bharat's Covaxin (finally) delivered an efficacy readout of 77.8%, 93.4% efficacy against severe disease - and 65.2% efficacy against the delta variant - the most devastating of all the COVID strains. Furthermore, the National Institute of Allergies and Infectious Diseases advised that a novel vaccine adjuvant developed in Kansas, US with NIAID support, Alhydroxiquim-II, enhanced the overall efficacy of Covaxin.\nBharat Pursues WHO Emergency Use Listing Whilst Ocugen Looks To Canada\nThese results, as strong as they are - and it should be noted the efficacy of Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech's (BNTX) messenger-RNA Comirnaty vaccine against the Delta variant has dropped as low as 39% in studies in Israel - they arrived too late to help Ocugen secure an EUA in the US.\nOcugen turned its attention to Canada,announcing a rolling submission to Health Canada on July 15 through its affiliate, Vaccigen, Ltd,allowing for it to submit new data as and when it came in, accelerating the overall review process.\nIf approved, Ocugen will earn 55% of all profits earned from the vaccine, but as I discussed in my last note when providing some discounted cash flow analysis based on optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, it's doubtful if the Canadian government's purchases alone would provide a significant boot to Ocugen's current market cap valuation of $2.5bn, or its share price of $12.7.\nThe US is the key for Ocugen, and management has by no means given up on this opportunity. In late October, Ocugen made an Investigational New Drug (\"IND\") submission to the FDA. Ocugen's plan is to initiate a Phase 3 \"immuno-bridging study,\" enrolling several hundred healthy adults in the U.S, who will receive 2 doses of Covaxin or placebo, 28 days apart. The endpoints are described by management (in an October 27th press release) as follows:\n\n The primary endpoint will compare blood-based samples taken from U.S. participants who received COVAXIN™ with samples of the participants in the Phase 3 efficacy trial conducted in India. The secondary endpoint involves testing the vaccine's immunogenic profile. The study will also evaluate safety and tolerability in the U.S. population.\n\nOcugen hopes to have the study complete before the end of H122, if it is approved by the FDA, which has yet to make a decision. If the FDA does give the green light, then the US market - and Ocugen's 45% of all profits - is suddenly back on the table.\nMeanwhile, Bharat Biotech received notification today that the World Health Organization has approved its application for an Emergency Use Listing (\"EUL\"), meaning Covaxin will now likely be accepted by a host of foreign governments, and that Indians who have received the vaccine will have fewer problems traveling overseas.\nIt's great news for Bharat, who join the likes of Pfizer / BioNTech, Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), SinoPharm, Moderna (MRNA) and AstraZeneca (AZN) on the list of EUL-approved vaccine developers - but it is not necessarily great news for Ocugen.\nVaccines on the EUL list are permitted to be sent to government's around the world as part of the COVAX scheme, designed to create equitable vaccine distribution around the world, including poorer countries, but the US is a donor to this scheme, not a beneficiary, meaning that Ocugen effectively gets no benefit, and no revenues, as a result of the WHO approval for Covaxin.\nOcugen Stock Is Already On A Downtrend - All Eyes Will Now Be On Health Canada And The FDA\nOcugen stock bounced from a price of ~$9, to a peak of ~$16 in trading today, however the share price quickly began to decline, and finished at a price of $12.7. Post-market, shares were down another 10%.\nThat reflects the fact that the WHO approval for Covaxin does little to improve Ocugen's own fortunes, and in all honesty, was something of a red herring.\nOcugen investors, and Ocugen shorts, are desperate to know what the future holds for Covaxin in the US and Canada, but they will have to wait until Health Canada and the FDA rule respectively on an Emergency Use Authorization, and an approval to begin a drastically reduced pivotal trial in the US.\nIronically, despite all of the news flow and the publication of Covaxin Phase 3 trial data, and the EUA granted to Covaxin by the Indian government, Ocugen's fortunes are in a similar place to where they were when I last covered the company - barring the US EUA opportunity.\nThat opportunity - the one that may have sent Ocugen shares through the roof - has gone, but as I argued in my last post, I think it's possible that the US would not object to stockpiling some of the Covaxin shot, which has a differentiated mechanism of action, and a shelf life of up to years if stored at 2- 8 degrees centigrade.\nCovaxin may have benefits that other vaccines do not, the reasoning may go, such as its ability to induce a Th1 response, conferring cell-mediated immunity and offering durable protection, and enhanced protection against COVID variants, which is the primary concern at the present time.\nOn the other hand, the US may now be able to obtain supply directly from Bharat via the WHO and be in a position to cut Ocugen - the middleman - out of any deal.\nThe fact of the matter is that Ocugen's opportunity with Bharat and Covaxin has always appeared to be one that required expediency of execution, in order to capitalize on a US market opportunity that's uncertain, perhaps negligible, at worst, and a potential multi-billion opportunity at best.\nNobody knows even if Ocugen will get an opportunity to market Covaxin in the US, but if it does, it will need to negotiate a tricky Phase 3 trial first, which could take us into the latter half of next year. Equally, no-one yet knows if Health Canada will approve the vaccine.\nConclusion\nTo summarise the current state of affairs, I would lean toward an approval in Canada - if Covaxin is good enough for the WHO, why would it not be good enough for Canada?\nBut how much product will Canada buy? Probably enough to create a substantial price spike for Ocugen stock, although demand is unlikely to be high enough to sustain that spike long term.\nHow much would the US buy if Covaxin was approved in the US? Again, I cannot see it being a high enough volume to catapult Ocugen's market cap above say $10bn, but if it buys any at all, Ocugen's market valuation is more or less guaranteed to surge, at least temporarily.\nIn conclusion, I would argue that there is enough intrigue and opportunity in the Ocugen story to keep investors interested - on both the short and long sides. The WHO approval does not directly benefit Ocugen revenues wise, but it's another win for Covaxin, which is in turn a win for Ocugen.\nIf I has been holding Ocugen stock since December last year, when it traded at >$0.5, frankly I would have sold by now, but if I had opened a position at ~$10, in expectation of doubling my money on a US approval, I would still be (nervously) holding.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OCGN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2440,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841977718,"gmtCreate":1635873963161,"gmtModify":1635873963161,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095811186634540","authorIdStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGI\">$Birks(BGI)$</a>Hmm another parabolic move on 3M TF","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BGI\">$Birks(BGI)$</a>Hmm another parabolic move on 3M TF","text":"$Birks(BGI)$Hmm another parabolic move on 3M TF","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95d5cf7adb845655d68e4efeeb481fc0","width":"1125","height":"2915"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841977718","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849590294,"gmtCreate":1635763928571,"gmtModify":1635763928571,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095811186634540","authorIdStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The from WHO will be on Nov 3.&nbsp;","listText":"The from WHO will be on Nov 3.&nbsp;","text":"The from WHO will be on Nov 3.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849590294","repostId":"1150864664","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1150864664","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1635759555,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1150864664?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-01 17:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ocugen shares jumped 8.8% in premarket trading<blockquote>Ocugen 股价在盘前交易中上涨 8.8%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1150864664","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Ocugen shares jumped 8.8% in premarket trading.Ocugen hopes to launch Phase III Trial of Covaxin in ","content":"<p>Ocugen shares jumped 8.8% in premarket trading.Ocugen hopes to launch Phase III Trial of Covaxin in U.S.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 股价在盘前交易中上涨 8.8%。Ocugen 希望在美国启动科瓦克辛三期试验。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c40abeceb277bdc16372a037d9cc5f3\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Malvern, Pa.-based&nbsp;<b>Ocugen</b>&nbsp;has&nbsp;<b>submitted</b>&nbsp;an Investigational New Drug (IND) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to run a Phase III trial of India’s BBV152 (Covaxin), a vaccine against COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于宾夕法尼亚州马尔文<b>奥库根</b>有<b>已提交</b>美国的研究性新药（IND）美国食品和药物管理局（FDA）将对印度的 BBV152（科瓦克辛）进行 III 期试验，这是一种针对 COVID-19 的疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the trial’s&nbsp;goal&nbsp;is to determine if the vaccine’s immune response in a completed Phase III trial in India would be similar to the response in unvaccinated patients in the U.S. or those who have already received two doses of an mRNA vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>该试验的部分目标是确定疫苗在印度完成的三期试验中的免疫反应是否与美国未接种疫苗的患者或已经接种过两剂mRNA疫苗的患者的免疫反应相似。</blockquote></p><p> Covaxin&nbsp;is a whole-virion inactivated COVID-19 product. That means they take the SARS-CoV-2 virus, kill it, and use it as the vaccine. The possible advantage over other vaccines is it creates a broader immunity against the virus, not just the virus’s spike protein, or parts of the spike protein, as most other vaccines do. Covaxin would theoretically have similar efficacy against all variants, although it doesn’t seem to in trials.</p><p><blockquote>科瓦克辛是一种全病毒体灭活的新冠肺炎产品。这意味着他们拿走新型冠状病毒病毒，杀死它，并将其用作疫苗。与其他疫苗相比，它可能具有的优势是，它能对病毒产生更广泛的免疫力，而不仅仅是像大多数其他疫苗那样对病毒的刺突蛋白或刺突蛋白的一部分产生免疫力。理论上，科瓦克辛对所有变种都有类似的疗效，尽管在试验中似乎并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> The vaccine was jointly developed by India’s&nbsp;<b>Bharat Biotech</b>&nbsp;and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). Ocugen has a deal with Bharat to develop the vaccine in the U.S. and Canada. It has been distributed under emergency use authorizations in 17 countries.</p><p><blockquote>该疫苗由印度<b>巴拉特生物技术</b>和印度医学研究委员会（ICMR）。Ocugen 与 Bharat 达成协议，在美国和加拿大开发疫苗。它已根据紧急使用授权在17个国家分发。</blockquote></p><p> The vaccine received emergency authorization in India on January 3, 2021. However, there has been a<b>long delay</b>in authorization by the World Health Organization (WHO). This week, it got delayed once again as the WHO asked for additional information and clarifications from Bharat Biotech. The WHO expects to meet again for a final evaluation on November 3, if it receives the data.</p><p><blockquote>该疫苗于2021年1月3日在印度获得紧急授权。然而，有一个<b>长时间延迟</b>经世界卫生组织（世卫组织）授权。本周，由于世卫组织要求巴拉特生物技术公司提供更多信息和澄清，会议再次被推迟。如果收到数据，世卫组织预计将于11月3日再次开会进行最终评估。</blockquote></p><p> Although the WHO approval isn’t necessary for use in India or the U.S., it is necessary for the vaccine to be recognized by foreign countries. It allows for fewer problems for vaccinated people in terms of international travel. WHO’s Emergency use listing (EUL) would mean the vaccine was eligible for global distribution to low- and middle-income countries under COVAX.</p><p><blockquote>虽然在印度或美国使用不需要世卫组织的批准，但疫苗必须得到外国的承认。它减少了接种疫苗的人在国际旅行方面的问题。世卫组织的紧急使用清单（EUL）意味着该疫苗有资格根据 COVAX 在全球范围内分发给中低收入国家。</blockquote></p><p> Shankar Musunuri, Ph.D., chairman, chief executive officer, and co-founder of Ocugen, said of the FDA application, “We are very excited to take this next step in the development of Covaxin, which we hope will bring us closer to introducing a different type of COVID-19 vaccine to the American public. We are hopeful that the study conducted under the IND, if allowed to proceed, will help demonstrate that the data from India will be applicable to the U.S. population.”</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 公司董事长、首席执行官兼联合创始人 Shankar Musunuri 博士在谈到 FDA 的申请时说：“我们非常高兴能在科瓦克辛的研发方面迈出下一步，我们希望这将使我们更接近向美国公众推出一种不同类型的 COVID-19 疫苗。我们希望，根据印度国家信息研究所进行的研究，如果获准继续进行，将有助于证明来自印度的数据将适用于美国人口。”</blockquote></p><p> The Phase III immuno-bridging study, if given the green light, would enroll several hundred healthy U.S. adults. The participants would be given either two doses of Covaxin or placebo, 28 days apart. The primary endpoint would compare&nbsp;blood samples from U.S. participants who received the vaccine with samples in the Phase III trial performed in India. A secondary endpoint is an immunogenic profile of the vaccine. It will also determine safety and tolerability in the U.S. population. Ocugen hopes to wrap up the study in the first half of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这项 III 期免疫桥接研究如果获得批准，将招募数百名健康的美国成年人。参与者将接受两剂科瓦克辛或安慰剂，间隔28天。主要终点将比较接受疫苗的美国参与者的血液样本与在印度进行的III期试验中的样本。次要终点是疫苗的免疫原性特征。它还将决定美国人群的安全性和耐受性。Ocugen 希望在 2022 年上半年完成这项研究。</blockquote></p><p> The Phase III trial in India performed by Bharat Biotech involved 25,798 participants who received the vaccine or placebo. The primary endpoint was the prevention of symptomatic COVID-19 within at least 14 days after the second dose.</p><p><blockquote>Bharat Biotech在印度进行的III期试验涉及25,798名接受疫苗或安慰剂的参与者。主要终点是在第二剂给药后至少14天内预防有症状的新冠肺炎。</blockquote></p><p> Data from that trial reported 93.4% efficacy against severe COVID-19, 77.8% efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19, and 63.6% against asymptomatic disease. A sub-analysis of the data looked at its effectiveness against variants. The analysis showed that 90% of infections were associated with a variant, and 59% were the Delta variant. The vaccine demonstrated 65.2% efficacy against Delta.</p><p><blockquote>该试验的数据显示，对严重新冠肺炎的有效率为93.4%，对有症状的新冠肺炎的有效率为77.8%，对无症状疾病的有效率为63.6%。对数据的子分析着眼于其对变异的有效性。分析显示，90%的感染与变异有关，59%是德尔塔变异毒株。该疫苗对Delta的有效性为65.2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ocugen shares jumped 8.8% in premarket trading<blockquote>Ocugen 股价在盘前交易中上涨 8.8%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nOcugen shares jumped 8.8% in premarket trading<blockquote>Ocugen 股价在盘前交易中上涨 8.8%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-01 17:39</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Ocugen shares jumped 8.8% in premarket trading.Ocugen hopes to launch Phase III Trial of Covaxin in U.S.</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 股价在盘前交易中上涨 8.8%。Ocugen 希望在美国启动科瓦克辛三期试验。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c40abeceb277bdc16372a037d9cc5f3\" tg-width=\"847\" tg-height=\"618\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Malvern, Pa.-based&nbsp;<b>Ocugen</b>&nbsp;has&nbsp;<b>submitted</b>&nbsp;an Investigational New Drug (IND) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to run a Phase III trial of India’s BBV152 (Covaxin), a vaccine against COVID-19.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于宾夕法尼亚州马尔文<b>奥库根</b>有<b>已提交</b>美国的研究性新药（IND）美国食品和药物管理局（FDA）将对印度的 BBV152（科瓦克辛）进行 III 期试验，这是一种针对 COVID-19 的疫苗。</blockquote></p><p> Part of the trial’s&nbsp;goal&nbsp;is to determine if the vaccine’s immune response in a completed Phase III trial in India would be similar to the response in unvaccinated patients in the U.S. or those who have already received two doses of an mRNA vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>该试验的部分目标是确定疫苗在印度完成的三期试验中的免疫反应是否与美国未接种疫苗的患者或已经接种过两剂mRNA疫苗的患者的免疫反应相似。</blockquote></p><p> Covaxin&nbsp;is a whole-virion inactivated COVID-19 product. That means they take the SARS-CoV-2 virus, kill it, and use it as the vaccine. The possible advantage over other vaccines is it creates a broader immunity against the virus, not just the virus’s spike protein, or parts of the spike protein, as most other vaccines do. Covaxin would theoretically have similar efficacy against all variants, although it doesn’t seem to in trials.</p><p><blockquote>科瓦克辛是一种全病毒体灭活的新冠肺炎产品。这意味着他们拿走新型冠状病毒病毒，杀死它，并将其用作疫苗。与其他疫苗相比，它可能具有的优势是，它能对病毒产生更广泛的免疫力，而不仅仅是像大多数其他疫苗那样对病毒的刺突蛋白或刺突蛋白的一部分产生免疫力。理论上，科瓦克辛对所有变种都有类似的疗效，尽管在试验中似乎并非如此。</blockquote></p><p> The vaccine was jointly developed by India’s&nbsp;<b>Bharat Biotech</b>&nbsp;and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). Ocugen has a deal with Bharat to develop the vaccine in the U.S. and Canada. It has been distributed under emergency use authorizations in 17 countries.</p><p><blockquote>该疫苗由印度<b>巴拉特生物技术</b>和印度医学研究委员会（ICMR）。Ocugen 与 Bharat 达成协议，在美国和加拿大开发疫苗。它已根据紧急使用授权在17个国家分发。</blockquote></p><p> The vaccine received emergency authorization in India on January 3, 2021. However, there has been a<b>long delay</b>in authorization by the World Health Organization (WHO). This week, it got delayed once again as the WHO asked for additional information and clarifications from Bharat Biotech. The WHO expects to meet again for a final evaluation on November 3, if it receives the data.</p><p><blockquote>该疫苗于2021年1月3日在印度获得紧急授权。然而，有一个<b>长时间延迟</b>经世界卫生组织（世卫组织）授权。本周，由于世卫组织要求巴拉特生物技术公司提供更多信息和澄清，会议再次被推迟。如果收到数据，世卫组织预计将于11月3日再次开会进行最终评估。</blockquote></p><p> Although the WHO approval isn’t necessary for use in India or the U.S., it is necessary for the vaccine to be recognized by foreign countries. It allows for fewer problems for vaccinated people in terms of international travel. WHO’s Emergency use listing (EUL) would mean the vaccine was eligible for global distribution to low- and middle-income countries under COVAX.</p><p><blockquote>虽然在印度或美国使用不需要世卫组织的批准，但疫苗必须得到外国的承认。它减少了接种疫苗的人在国际旅行方面的问题。世卫组织的紧急使用清单（EUL）意味着该疫苗有资格根据 COVAX 在全球范围内分发给中低收入国家。</blockquote></p><p> Shankar Musunuri, Ph.D., chairman, chief executive officer, and co-founder of Ocugen, said of the FDA application, “We are very excited to take this next step in the development of Covaxin, which we hope will bring us closer to introducing a different type of COVID-19 vaccine to the American public. We are hopeful that the study conducted under the IND, if allowed to proceed, will help demonstrate that the data from India will be applicable to the U.S. population.”</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen 公司董事长、首席执行官兼联合创始人 Shankar Musunuri 博士在谈到 FDA 的申请时说：“我们非常高兴能在科瓦克辛的研发方面迈出下一步，我们希望这将使我们更接近向美国公众推出一种不同类型的 COVID-19 疫苗。我们希望，根据印度国家信息研究所进行的研究，如果获准继续进行，将有助于证明来自印度的数据将适用于美国人口。”</blockquote></p><p> The Phase III immuno-bridging study, if given the green light, would enroll several hundred healthy U.S. adults. The participants would be given either two doses of Covaxin or placebo, 28 days apart. The primary endpoint would compare&nbsp;blood samples from U.S. participants who received the vaccine with samples in the Phase III trial performed in India. A secondary endpoint is an immunogenic profile of the vaccine. It will also determine safety and tolerability in the U.S. population. Ocugen hopes to wrap up the study in the first half of 2022.</p><p><blockquote>这项 III 期免疫桥接研究如果获得批准，将招募数百名健康的美国成年人。参与者将接受两剂科瓦克辛或安慰剂，间隔28天。主要终点将比较接受疫苗的美国参与者的血液样本与在印度进行的III期试验中的样本。次要终点是疫苗的免疫原性特征。它还将决定美国人群的安全性和耐受性。Ocugen 希望在 2022 年上半年完成这项研究。</blockquote></p><p> The Phase III trial in India performed by Bharat Biotech involved 25,798 participants who received the vaccine or placebo. The primary endpoint was the prevention of symptomatic COVID-19 within at least 14 days after the second dose.</p><p><blockquote>Bharat Biotech在印度进行的III期试验涉及25,798名接受疫苗或安慰剂的参与者。主要终点是在第二剂给药后至少14天内预防有症状的新冠肺炎。</blockquote></p><p> Data from that trial reported 93.4% efficacy against severe COVID-19, 77.8% efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19, and 63.6% against asymptomatic disease. A sub-analysis of the data looked at its effectiveness against variants. The analysis showed that 90% of infections were associated with a variant, and 59% were the Delta variant. The vaccine demonstrated 65.2% efficacy against Delta.</p><p><blockquote>该试验的数据显示，对严重新冠肺炎的有效率为93.4%，对有症状的新冠肺炎的有效率为77.8%，对无症状疾病的有效率为63.6%。对数据的子分析着眼于其对变异的有效性。分析显示，90%的感染与变异有关，59%是德尔塔变异毒株。该疫苗对Delta的有效性为65.2%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OCGN":"Ocugen"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1150864664","content_text":"Ocugen shares jumped 8.8% in premarket trading.Ocugen hopes to launch Phase III Trial of Covaxin in U.S.\n\nMalvern, Pa.-based Ocugen has submitted an Investigational New Drug (IND) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to run a Phase III trial of India’s BBV152 (Covaxin), a vaccine against COVID-19.\nPart of the trial’s goal is to determine if the vaccine’s immune response in a completed Phase III trial in India would be similar to the response in unvaccinated patients in the U.S. or those who have already received two doses of an mRNA vaccine.\nCovaxin is a whole-virion inactivated COVID-19 product. That means they take the SARS-CoV-2 virus, kill it, and use it as the vaccine. The possible advantage over other vaccines is it creates a broader immunity against the virus, not just the virus’s spike protein, or parts of the spike protein, as most other vaccines do. Covaxin would theoretically have similar efficacy against all variants, although it doesn’t seem to in trials.\nThe vaccine was jointly developed by India’s Bharat Biotech and the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR). Ocugen has a deal with Bharat to develop the vaccine in the U.S. and Canada. It has been distributed under emergency use authorizations in 17 countries.\nThe vaccine received emergency authorization in India on January 3, 2021. However, there has been along delayin authorization by the World Health Organization (WHO). This week, it got delayed once again as the WHO asked for additional information and clarifications from Bharat Biotech. The WHO expects to meet again for a final evaluation on November 3, if it receives the data.\nAlthough the WHO approval isn’t necessary for use in India or the U.S., it is necessary for the vaccine to be recognized by foreign countries. It allows for fewer problems for vaccinated people in terms of international travel. WHO’s Emergency use listing (EUL) would mean the vaccine was eligible for global distribution to low- and middle-income countries under COVAX.\nShankar Musunuri, Ph.D., chairman, chief executive officer, and co-founder of Ocugen, said of the FDA application, “We are very excited to take this next step in the development of Covaxin, which we hope will bring us closer to introducing a different type of COVID-19 vaccine to the American public. We are hopeful that the study conducted under the IND, if allowed to proceed, will help demonstrate that the data from India will be applicable to the U.S. population.”\nThe Phase III immuno-bridging study, if given the green light, would enroll several hundred healthy U.S. adults. The participants would be given either two doses of Covaxin or placebo, 28 days apart. The primary endpoint would compare blood samples from U.S. participants who received the vaccine with samples in the Phase III trial performed in India. A secondary endpoint is an immunogenic profile of the vaccine. It will also determine safety and tolerability in the U.S. population. Ocugen hopes to wrap up the study in the first half of 2022.\nThe Phase III trial in India performed by Bharat Biotech involved 25,798 participants who received the vaccine or placebo. The primary endpoint was the prevention of symptomatic COVID-19 within at least 14 days after the second dose.\nData from that trial reported 93.4% efficacy against severe COVID-19, 77.8% efficacy against symptomatic COVID-19, and 63.6% against asymptomatic disease. A sub-analysis of the data looked at its effectiveness against variants. The analysis showed that 90% of infections were associated with a variant, and 59% were the Delta variant. The vaccine demonstrated 65.2% efficacy against Delta.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OCGN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":852385256,"gmtCreate":1635243219724,"gmtModify":1635243219808,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095811186634540","authorIdStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics(OCGN)$</a>Looking for more upside while waiting for WHO approval","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OCGN\">$Histogenics(OCGN)$</a>Looking for more upside while waiting for WHO approval","text":"$Histogenics(OCGN)$Looking for more upside while waiting for WHO approval","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ce3c47380ff674e83d4832f524a4dba","width":"1125","height":"2847"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/852385256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":824817376,"gmtCreate":1634301276610,"gmtModify":1634301276690,"author":{"id":"4095811186634540","authorId":"4095811186634540","name":"MasterDrive","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9526a906e038fe8dcae56c55dd142302","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4095811186634540","authorIdStr":"4095811186634540"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CIFR\">$Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$</a>Will it continue to bounce back after creating a higher low from yesterday’s candle?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CIFR\">$Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$</a>Will it continue to bounce back after creating a higher low from yesterday’s candle?","text":"$Cipher Mining Inc.(CIFR)$Will it continue to bounce back after creating a higher low from yesterday’s candle?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ebc67569356b96340d3f682e48e3703","width":"1125","height":"2847"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/824817376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}