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simi
2021-12-29
👍 Long term
Palantir: Buy The Dip Before Year-End<blockquote>Palantir：年底前逢低买入</blockquote>
simi
2021-12-24
Oh! should we buy this stock?
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simi
2021-12-21
Buy for long term 🚀🚀
Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的 3 个理由以及为什么它仍然值得购买</blockquote>
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Long term","listText":"👍 Long term","text":"👍 Long term","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692069529","repostId":"1184116002","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1184116002","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640140972,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1184116002?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-22 10:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Buy The Dip Before Year-End<blockquote>Palantir：年底前逢低买入</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184116002","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Palantir have dropped 30% since the start of November, despite a fundamental busi","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of Palantir have dropped 30% since the start of November, despite a fundamental business that continues to thrive.</li> <li>In particular, Palantir has been successful at diversifying away from government contracts, with overall commercial revenue growth accelerating in Q3 and more than doubling in the U.S.</li> <li>Still, the government business is not slacking, with the company winning recent contracts with the Air Force, Department of Health and Human Services, and National Institutes of Health.</li> <li>Cash flow is also trending ahead of plan, driving the company to boost its full-year cash flow guidance by $100 million.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27ed9cd275848c088c2f7966c6a9b0c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管基本面业务持续蓬勃发展，但 Palantir 的股价自 11 月初以来已下跌 30%。</li><li>特别是，Palantir 成功地实现了政府合同的多元化，第三季度整体商业收入增长加速，在美国增长了一倍多。</li><li>尽管如此，政府业务并没有懈怠，该公司最近赢得了与空军、卫生与公众服务部以及美国国立卫生研究院的合同。</li><li>现金流的趋势也超前于计划，推动该公司将全年现金流指引提高了 1 亿美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安德烈亚斯·伦茨/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The mantra of \"thinking and investing for the long term\" is a well-touted investment principle, yet rarely ever put into practice. It's also a rule that is most commonly broken in the tech sector, where investors choose their stocks primarily based on momentum and rarely based on fundamentals and value.</p><p><blockquote>“长期思考和投资”的口头禅是一个被吹捧的投资原则，但很少付诸实践。这也是科技行业最常被打破的规则，投资者主要根据势头选择股票，很少根据基本面和价值。</blockquote></p><p> So when the great growth correction of 2021 happened in the fourth quarter this year, while many stocks certainly deserved a small correction and a breather in valuations, many high-quality names got knocked down multiple pegs far more than their fundamentals justify. In this bucket is Palantir (PLTR), the big data analytics powerhouse which has seen a tremendous correction in its share price despite a business that has never looked healthier.</p><p><blockquote>因此，当 2021 年的大幅增长调整发生在今年第四季度时，虽然许多股票肯定应该得到小幅调整和估值喘息，但许多优质股票受到的多重挂钩打击远远超出了其基本面的合理范围。大数据分析巨头 Palantir (PLTR) 就是其中之一，尽管业务看起来从未如此健康，但其股价却出现了巨大调整。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps alone among high-profile software IPOs, Palantir has had a very rocky trading journey since going public last October. Palantir took a while to get off the ground, as investors worried early on that the lack of an insider lockup period would pressure Palantir's ability to rally. The stock did end up rallying and peaked near $40 in mid-February, before proceeding to trade in a very jagged and choppy fashion throughout the rest of the year, including a ~30% decline since November alongside other tech growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 可能是备受瞩目的软件 IPO 中唯一一家，自去年 10 月上市以来，它的交易历程非常坎坷。Palantir 花了一段时间才起步，因为投资者很早就担心缺乏内部锁定期会给 Palantir 的反弹能力带来压力。该股最终确实反弹，并在 2 月中旬达到 40 美元附近的峰值，然后在今年剩余时间里以非常锯齿状和波动的方式进行交易，包括自 11 月以来与其他科技股一起下跌了约 30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28dd4c60f2471cddc190b107c562cb57\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Throughout this tumultuous time period, I've happily held onto my Palantir stock, and this company is one of the rare exceptions where I'm <b>very bullish</b> on a stock that is technically trading at quite expensive valuation multiples (though, with the sharp correction from February peaks, Palantir isn't trading at the egregiously expensive multiples it was trading at earlier). I continue to view Palantir as a tech mega-cap in the making, one with a powerhouse software platform that is broadly applicable across industries, and across both the public and private sectors. Currently dominant primarily in the United States, Palantir also has broadly untested expansion opportunities abroad, where innovation in big data and machine learning technologies has not quite yet matured.</p><p><blockquote>在这段动荡的时期，我很高兴地持有我的 Palantir 股票，而这家公司是我持有的少数例外之一<b>非常看涨</b>从技术上讲，这只股票的交易估值倍数相当昂贵（不过，随着 2 月份峰值的大幅回调，Palantir 的交易倍数并没有像之前那样昂贵）。我仍然将 Palantir 视为一家正在形成的科技巨头，拥有广泛适用于各行各业、公共和私营部门的强大软件平台。Palantir目前主要在美国占据主导地位，在大数据和机器学习技术的创新尚未完全成熟的国外也有未经测试的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> Stay long here, and add to your positions in Palantir at its new lower price before year-end: in my view, Palantir is well-equipped to outperform the market indices for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>长期留在这里，并在年底前以新的较低价格增加您在 Palantir 的头寸：在我看来，Palantir 有能力在未来几年跑赢市场指数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent wins showcase how prominent Palantir is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近的胜利展示了 Palantir 的突出地位</b></blockquote></p><p> Before we get into more granular details and fundamentals, it's worthwhile to illustrate that Palantir has been busy from a go-to-market perspective. The company is always on the heels of some large, transformational deal, and the current situation is no different. In particular, the company has just recently signed a multi-year $60 million deal with the National Institutes of Health:</p><p><blockquote>在我们深入探讨更详细的细节和基本面之前，值得说明的是，Palantir 从上市的角度一直很忙。该公司总是紧随一些大型转型交易之后，目前的情况也不例外。特别是，该公司最近刚刚与美国国立卫生研究院签署了一项价值 6000 万美元的多年期协议：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Palantir NIH win</p><p><blockquote>图1。Palantir ni win</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db52b9f945c292c1b56f4d6b0a3ed00d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And, building off the strength that Palantir has historically enjoyed with the U.S. armed forces, the company also signed a four-year $87 million deal with the Department of Veterans Affairs:</p><p><blockquote>此外，凭借 Palantir 历来与美国武装部队的实力，该公司还与退伍军人事务部签署了一项为期四年、价值 8700 万美元的协议：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Palantir VA win</p><p><blockquote>图2。帕兰蒂尔和温</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905489ce382c58d0ea9896420a67ce9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And though the large deals that Palantir showcase are typically public-sector deals, the company's commercial/enterprise sales have recently picked up steam as well, which we'll discuss in further detail in this article.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Palantir展示的大宗交易通常是公共部门交易，但该公司的商业/企业销售最近也有所上升，我们将在本文中进一步讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bullish thesis for Palantir, revisited</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 的看涨论点，重新审视</b></blockquote></p><p> With the recent pessimism in Palantir stock over the past two months, it can be easy for investors to forget the longer-term bullish thesis and fundamental merits that this company possesses in abundance.</p><p><blockquote>由于过去两个月 Palantir 股票的悲观情绪，投资者很容易忘记该公司拥有的长期看涨论点和基本面优势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here's a refresher of all the key reasons why this company is a superstar:</p><p><blockquote>以下是这家公司成为超级明星的所有关键原因：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Big data is a massive discipline that can be applied in nearly limitless ways.</b>Palantir isn't a software company that serves only one or a limited set of use cases. Data and inferences that can be made from data are prevalent in just about everything: which explains why Palantir is such a powerful tool for both public and private sector clients.</li> <li><b>Growth at scale.</b>Despite being at a ~$2 billion annual revenue scale, Palantir continues to deliver 30-40% y/y revenue growth, and its long-term outlook calls for the company to be able to sustain growth rates in excess of 30% y/y through at least 2025. Few companies are able to achieve this kind of growth at scale, and it's a testament to the wide applicability of Palantir's products and the humongous clientele it has drawn (in particular, the U.S. Army).</li> <li><b>Stepping up go-to-market momentum.</b>Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. The company has stepped up its sales hiring this year, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir also has deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir's products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir's direct sales force can't handle.</li> <li><b>One foot in the public sector, one foot in private</b>. Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Most software companies start off as primarily dealing with enterprise buyers, and then hopefully getting FedRAMP certification to sell into public sector clients later. Palantir did the reverse: but now, its momentum with Fortune 100 companies is continuing to grow, and customer adds are continuing to trend at an impressive pace.</li> <li><b>Free cash flow.</b>Though not yet profitable from a GAAP standpoint, Palantir continues to exceed internal expectations for free cash flow, which means the business is self-financing (a departure from. many other rapid-growth software companies that continue to need to raise capital to finance their losses).</li> </ul> <b>Valuation isn't cheap, but more reasonable than in the past</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据是一门庞大的学科，可以以几乎无限的方式应用。</b>Palantir不是一家只服务于一个或有限一组用例的软件公司。数据和从数据中得出的推论几乎在所有事情中都很普遍：这解释了为什么Palantir对公共和私营部门客户来说都是如此强大的工具。</li><li><b>规模增长。</b>尽管年收入规模约为 20 亿美元，Palantir 仍继续实现 30-40% 的同比收入增长，其长期展望评级是该公司至少到 2025 年能够保持超过 30% 的同比增长率。很少有公司能够实现这种大规模增长，这证明了 Palantir 产品的广泛适用性及其吸引的庞大客户（特别是美国陆军）。</li><li><b>加大上市势头。</b>Palantir 正在通过各种渠道追求增长。该公司今年加大了销售招聘力度，这是对其拥有广阔市场机会以及对更多地区覆盖的需求的认可。Palantir还加深了与ISV（综合服务供应商）的关系，ISV可以在没有其参与的情况下转售Palantir的产品，并提供Palantir直销团队无法处理的额外覆盖范围。</li><li><b>一只脚在公共部门，一只脚在私营部门</b>. Palantir 因成为一家大型联邦政府承包商而声名鹊起，但其产品对越来越痴迷于大数据价值的企业部门来说同样具有吸引力。大多数软件公司一开始主要与企业买家打交道，然后希望获得FedRAMP认证，以便以后销售给公共部门客户。Palantir 的做法恰恰相反：但现在，它与财富 100 强公司的势头持续增长，客户增加继续以令人印象深刻的速度呈现。</li><li><b>自由现金流。</b>尽管从 GAAP 的角度来看尚未盈利，但 Palantir 继续超出自由现金流的内部预期，这意味着该业务是自筹资金的（与许多其他快速增长的软件公司不同，它们仍然需要筹集资金来弥补亏损）。</li></ul><b>估值不便宜，但比过去更合理</b></blockquote></p><p> I wouldn't go so far as to say that Palantir's recent correction has left the stock at cheap levels - but for the caliber of this company's brand, plus its consistent combination of hyper-growth at scale while building up profitability and margins, I view its current valuation as quite reasonable.</p><p><blockquote>我不会说 Palantir 最近的调整使该股处于廉价水平 - 但对于该公司的品牌规模，加上其在建立盈利能力和利润率的同时持续的规模高速增长，我认为它目前的估值相当合理。</blockquote></p><p> At current share prices near $18, Palantir trades at a market cap of $35.99 billion. After netting off the $2.48 billion cash pile on its books (another reason to be bullish on Palantir: it has a load of cash and is unencumbered by debt), its resulting <b>enterprise value is $33.51 billion.</b></p><p><blockquote>目前股价接近 18 美元，Palantir 的市值为 359.9 亿美元。在扣除账面上 24.8 亿美元的现金后（看好 Palantir 的另一个原因：它拥有大量现金，并且不受债务负担），其结果<b>企业价值为335.1亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> For next fiscal year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Palantir to deliver $1.98 billion in revenue, representing 30% y/y revenue growth (data from Yahoo Finance). Considering the company has committed to 30%+ annual revenue growth throughout 2022 (and this is a company that has routinely delivered well ahead of its promises), I'd say this outlook is a little dim. Yet regardless of that, at this revenue estimate Palantir trades at <b>16.9x EV/FY22 revenue.</b></p><p><blockquote>与此同时，华尔街分析师预计 Palantir 将实现 19.8 亿美元的收入，同比增长 30%（数据来自雅虎财经）。考虑到该公司承诺在 2022 年全年实现 30% 以上的年收入增长（而且这家公司经常远远超出其承诺），我认为这个前景有点黯淡。尽管如此，根据这一收入估计，Palantir 的交易价格为<b>16.9 倍 EV/2022 财年收入。</b></blockquote></p><p> Again, we can hardly call this cheap, and in the face of rising interest rates, certainly Palantir's prior valuation multiples in the high-20s were unsustainable. But given this company's rapid growth trajectory, I'd say the ~$18 price level still represents a great entry point for the longer-term investor.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们很难以如此便宜的价格看涨期权，而且面对不断上升的利率，Palantir 之前在 20 多岁的估值倍数肯定是不可持续的。但考虑到这家公司的快速增长轨迹，我认为约 18 美元的价格水平对于长期投资者来说仍然是一个很好的切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q3 results showcase tremendous fundamental traction, especially in the commercial segment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度业绩显示了巨大的基本面牵引力，尤其是在商业领域</b></blockquote></p><p> We additionally note that Palantir's end-of-year correction has been accompanied by a continuation of its strong fundamentals. Take a look at the Q3 earnings results below:</p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，Palantir 的年终调整伴随着其强劲基本面的延续。看看下面的第三季度盈利结果：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 3. Palantir Q3 results</p><p><blockquote>图3。Palantir第三季度业绩</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e606183fac49ce4616a25d86d7fac0cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"585\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's revenue grew at a robust 35% y/y pace to $392.1 million in the quarter, beating Wall Street's expectations of $386.6 million (+33% y/y) by a two-point margin. We note that revenue growth did decelerate versus 49% y/y growth in Q2, but that's largely due to an easier comp versus the pandemic period in Q2 of last year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 本季度收入同比强劲增长 35%，达到 3.921 亿美元，超出华尔街预期的 3.866 亿美元（同比增长 33%）两个百分点。我们注意到，与第二季度 49% 的同比增长率相比，收入增长确实有所放缓，但这主要是由于与去年第二季度的大流行时期相比，收入增长更容易。</blockquote></p><p> The major highlight in Q3 was Palantir's success in driving enterprise go-to-market. The company reported commercial revenue growth of 37% y/y in Q3 - which, despite tougher comps, represented substantial acceleration over the prior few quarters:</p><p><blockquote>第三季度的主要亮点是 Palantir 在推动企业上市方面的成功。该公司报告第三季度商业收入同比增长 37%，尽管竞争更加艰难，但比前几个季度大幅加速：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 4. Palantir commercial revenue trends</p><p><blockquote>图4。Palantir 商业收入趋势</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ad4016e482cb4fc94422618c18cd3a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We note as well that when counting U.S. commercial revenue only, Palantir grew domestic enterprise revenue at a blazing <b>103% y/y pace.</b></p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，仅计算美国商业收入时，Palantir 国内企业收入增长迅猛<b>同比增长 103%。</b></blockquote></p><p> Note as well that as of the moment, Palantir remains a relatively early-stage enterprise software vendor with relatively few, but large customers. Q3 saw the biggest customer expansion in Palantir's history. The company added 34 net-new customers in Q3 to end the quarter at 203 total customers, which is a significant 20% expansion in the company's customer base in the space of a single quarter. Year over year, the company also boosted its commercial customer counts by 46%.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，截至目前，Palantir仍然是一家相对早期的企业软件供应商，客户相对较少，但规模较大。第三季度见证了 Palantir 历史上最大的客户扩张。该公司第三季度净增客户 34 家，截至本季度末客户总数为 203 家，这意味着该公司客户群在单季度内显着扩大了 20%。该公司的商业客户数量也同比增长了 46%。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 5. Palantir customer adds</p><p><blockquote>图5。Palantir 客户添加</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c334545c0f1a8387eead268cc0ce5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Recall as well that for its enterprise customers, Palantir adopts a \"land and expand\" playbook that many SaaS companies adhere to. These customers may start off as smaller deployments that grow substantially over time.</p><p><blockquote>还要记住，对于其企业客户，Palantir采用了许多SaaS公司坚持的“土地和扩张”策略。这些客户可能从较小的部署开始，随着时间的推移会大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Equally worth noting is that Palantir's <b>billings</b> expanded 56% y/y to $347 million. The surplus of Palantir's billings growth rates over its revenue growth, plus the sharp buildup in its remaining performance obligations, give us confidence that the company will be able to make good on its promise of sustaining 30%+ revenue growth for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>同样值得注意的是，Palantir<b>比林斯</b>同比增长 56%，达到 3.47 亿美元。Palantir 的账单增长率超过其收入增长，加上其剩余履约义务的急剧增加，让我们相信该公司将能够兑现未来几年维持 30% 以上收入增长的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, a word on profitability. Palantir's customer growth, and at a positive contribution margin as well, has driven the company to dramatically boost its adjusted free cash flow. In Q3, adjusted FCF hit $119 million, or a ~30% adjusted FCF margin - versus cash <b>burn</b> of -$53 million in the prior-year period.</p><p><blockquote>最后，谈谈盈利能力。Palantir 的客户增长以及正贡献率促使该公司大幅增加调整后的自由现金流。第三季度，调整后自由现金流达到 1.19 亿美元，调整后自由现金流利润率约为 30% - 与现金相比<b>燃烧</b>上年同期为-5300万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 6. Palantir FCF trends</p><p><blockquote>图6。Palantir FCF 趋势</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca53d0292b7696376d644c0d6a85e707\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Building on the strength in cash flow that the company has seen all year, Palantir management also increased its annual FCF guidance for FY21 to $400+ million, versus a prior outlook of just $300+ million. These moves, in my view, solidify to investors in a very risk-off market mindset that Palantir isn't just growing robustly, but also keeping profitability balance in mind.</p><p><blockquote>在公司全年现金流强劲的基础上，Palantir 管理层还将 2021 财年的年度自由现金流指引提高至 4 亿多美元，而之前的预期仅为 3 亿多美元。在我看来，这些举措巩固了投资者对风险规避的市场心态，即 Palantir 不仅增长强劲，而且还保持了盈利平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要要点</b></blockquote></p><p> In my view, Palantir retains a very long runway for success. The company's undisputed category leadership in big data and analytics continues to prove out new use cases for both public and private-sector teams, and the fact that Palantir can continue to grow at >30% y/y despite hitting an expected ~$2 billion annual revenue run rate next year further solidifies that Palantir is a unique and rare story in the software sector. Take advantage of the ~30% correction since November to build up a well-timed position in this stock.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，Palantir 为成功保留了一条很长的跑道。该公司在大数据和分析领域无可争议的类别领先地位继续为公共和私营部门团队证明新的用例，事实上，尽管预计明年年收入将达到约 20 亿美元，但 Palantir 仍能继续以 30% 以上的速度增长明年，这进一步巩固了 Palantir 是软件领域一个独特而罕见的故事。利用 11 月以来约 30% 的回调，及时建仓该股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Buy The Dip Before Year-End<blockquote>Palantir：年底前逢低买入</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Buy The Dip Before Year-End<blockquote>Palantir：年底前逢低买入</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-22 10:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of Palantir have dropped 30% since the start of November, despite a fundamental business that continues to thrive.</li> <li>In particular, Palantir has been successful at diversifying away from government contracts, with overall commercial revenue growth accelerating in Q3 and more than doubling in the U.S.</li> <li>Still, the government business is not slacking, with the company winning recent contracts with the Air Force, Department of Health and Human Services, and National Institutes of Health.</li> <li>Cash flow is also trending ahead of plan, driving the company to boost its full-year cash flow guidance by $100 million.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27ed9cd275848c088c2f7966c6a9b0c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管基本面业务持续蓬勃发展，但 Palantir 的股价自 11 月初以来已下跌 30%。</li><li>特别是，Palantir 成功地实现了政府合同的多元化，第三季度整体商业收入增长加速，在美国增长了一倍多。</li><li>尽管如此，政府业务并没有懈怠，该公司最近赢得了与空军、卫生与公众服务部以及美国国立卫生研究院的合同。</li><li>现金流的趋势也超前于计划，推动该公司将全年现金流指引提高了 1 亿美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安德烈亚斯·伦茨/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The mantra of \"thinking and investing for the long term\" is a well-touted investment principle, yet rarely ever put into practice. It's also a rule that is most commonly broken in the tech sector, where investors choose their stocks primarily based on momentum and rarely based on fundamentals and value.</p><p><blockquote>“长期思考和投资”的口头禅是一个被吹捧的投资原则，但很少付诸实践。这也是科技行业最常被打破的规则，投资者主要根据势头选择股票，很少根据基本面和价值。</blockquote></p><p> So when the great growth correction of 2021 happened in the fourth quarter this year, while many stocks certainly deserved a small correction and a breather in valuations, many high-quality names got knocked down multiple pegs far more than their fundamentals justify. In this bucket is Palantir (PLTR), the big data analytics powerhouse which has seen a tremendous correction in its share price despite a business that has never looked healthier.</p><p><blockquote>因此，当 2021 年的大幅增长调整发生在今年第四季度时，虽然许多股票肯定应该得到小幅调整和估值喘息，但许多优质股票受到的多重挂钩打击远远超出了其基本面的合理范围。大数据分析巨头 Palantir (PLTR) 就是其中之一，尽管业务看起来从未如此健康，但其股价却出现了巨大调整。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps alone among high-profile software IPOs, Palantir has had a very rocky trading journey since going public last October. Palantir took a while to get off the ground, as investors worried early on that the lack of an insider lockup period would pressure Palantir's ability to rally. The stock did end up rallying and peaked near $40 in mid-February, before proceeding to trade in a very jagged and choppy fashion throughout the rest of the year, including a ~30% decline since November alongside other tech growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 可能是备受瞩目的软件 IPO 中唯一一家，自去年 10 月上市以来，它的交易历程非常坎坷。Palantir 花了一段时间才起步，因为投资者很早就担心缺乏内部锁定期会给 Palantir 的反弹能力带来压力。该股最终确实反弹，并在 2 月中旬达到 40 美元附近的峰值，然后在今年剩余时间里以非常锯齿状和波动的方式进行交易，包括自 11 月以来与其他科技股一起下跌了约 30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28dd4c60f2471cddc190b107c562cb57\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Throughout this tumultuous time period, I've happily held onto my Palantir stock, and this company is one of the rare exceptions where I'm <b>very bullish</b> on a stock that is technically trading at quite expensive valuation multiples (though, with the sharp correction from February peaks, Palantir isn't trading at the egregiously expensive multiples it was trading at earlier). I continue to view Palantir as a tech mega-cap in the making, one with a powerhouse software platform that is broadly applicable across industries, and across both the public and private sectors. Currently dominant primarily in the United States, Palantir also has broadly untested expansion opportunities abroad, where innovation in big data and machine learning technologies has not quite yet matured.</p><p><blockquote>在这段动荡的时期，我很高兴地持有我的 Palantir 股票，而这家公司是我持有的少数例外之一<b>非常看涨</b>从技术上讲，这只股票的交易估值倍数相当昂贵（不过，随着 2 月份峰值的大幅回调，Palantir 的交易倍数并没有像之前那样昂贵）。我仍然将 Palantir 视为一家正在形成的科技巨头，拥有广泛适用于各行各业、公共和私营部门的强大软件平台。Palantir目前主要在美国占据主导地位，在大数据和机器学习技术的创新尚未完全成熟的国外也有未经测试的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> Stay long here, and add to your positions in Palantir at its new lower price before year-end: in my view, Palantir is well-equipped to outperform the market indices for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>长期留在这里，并在年底前以新的较低价格增加您在 Palantir 的头寸：在我看来，Palantir 有能力在未来几年跑赢市场指数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent wins showcase how prominent Palantir is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近的胜利展示了 Palantir 的突出地位</b></blockquote></p><p> Before we get into more granular details and fundamentals, it's worthwhile to illustrate that Palantir has been busy from a go-to-market perspective. The company is always on the heels of some large, transformational deal, and the current situation is no different. In particular, the company has just recently signed a multi-year $60 million deal with the National Institutes of Health:</p><p><blockquote>在我们深入探讨更详细的细节和基本面之前，值得说明的是，Palantir 从上市的角度一直很忙。该公司总是紧随一些大型转型交易之后，目前的情况也不例外。特别是，该公司最近刚刚与美国国立卫生研究院签署了一项价值 6000 万美元的多年期协议：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Palantir NIH win</p><p><blockquote>图1。Palantir ni win</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db52b9f945c292c1b56f4d6b0a3ed00d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And, building off the strength that Palantir has historically enjoyed with the U.S. armed forces, the company also signed a four-year $87 million deal with the Department of Veterans Affairs:</p><p><blockquote>此外，凭借 Palantir 历来与美国武装部队的实力，该公司还与退伍军人事务部签署了一项为期四年、价值 8700 万美元的协议：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Palantir VA win</p><p><blockquote>图2。帕兰蒂尔和温</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905489ce382c58d0ea9896420a67ce9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And though the large deals that Palantir showcase are typically public-sector deals, the company's commercial/enterprise sales have recently picked up steam as well, which we'll discuss in further detail in this article.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Palantir展示的大宗交易通常是公共部门交易，但该公司的商业/企业销售最近也有所上升，我们将在本文中进一步讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bullish thesis for Palantir, revisited</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 的看涨论点，重新审视</b></blockquote></p><p> With the recent pessimism in Palantir stock over the past two months, it can be easy for investors to forget the longer-term bullish thesis and fundamental merits that this company possesses in abundance.</p><p><blockquote>由于过去两个月 Palantir 股票的悲观情绪，投资者很容易忘记该公司拥有的长期看涨论点和基本面优势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here's a refresher of all the key reasons why this company is a superstar:</p><p><blockquote>以下是这家公司成为超级明星的所有关键原因：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Big data is a massive discipline that can be applied in nearly limitless ways.</b>Palantir isn't a software company that serves only one or a limited set of use cases. Data and inferences that can be made from data are prevalent in just about everything: which explains why Palantir is such a powerful tool for both public and private sector clients.</li> <li><b>Growth at scale.</b>Despite being at a ~$2 billion annual revenue scale, Palantir continues to deliver 30-40% y/y revenue growth, and its long-term outlook calls for the company to be able to sustain growth rates in excess of 30% y/y through at least 2025. Few companies are able to achieve this kind of growth at scale, and it's a testament to the wide applicability of Palantir's products and the humongous clientele it has drawn (in particular, the U.S. Army).</li> <li><b>Stepping up go-to-market momentum.</b>Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. The company has stepped up its sales hiring this year, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir also has deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir's products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir's direct sales force can't handle.</li> <li><b>One foot in the public sector, one foot in private</b>. Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Most software companies start off as primarily dealing with enterprise buyers, and then hopefully getting FedRAMP certification to sell into public sector clients later. Palantir did the reverse: but now, its momentum with Fortune 100 companies is continuing to grow, and customer adds are continuing to trend at an impressive pace.</li> <li><b>Free cash flow.</b>Though not yet profitable from a GAAP standpoint, Palantir continues to exceed internal expectations for free cash flow, which means the business is self-financing (a departure from. many other rapid-growth software companies that continue to need to raise capital to finance their losses).</li> </ul> <b>Valuation isn't cheap, but more reasonable than in the past</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据是一门庞大的学科，可以以几乎无限的方式应用。</b>Palantir不是一家只服务于一个或有限一组用例的软件公司。数据和从数据中得出的推论几乎在所有事情中都很普遍：这解释了为什么Palantir对公共和私营部门客户来说都是如此强大的工具。</li><li><b>规模增长。</b>尽管年收入规模约为 20 亿美元，Palantir 仍继续实现 30-40% 的同比收入增长，其长期展望评级是该公司至少到 2025 年能够保持超过 30% 的同比增长率。很少有公司能够实现这种大规模增长，这证明了 Palantir 产品的广泛适用性及其吸引的庞大客户（特别是美国陆军）。</li><li><b>加大上市势头。</b>Palantir 正在通过各种渠道追求增长。该公司今年加大了销售招聘力度，这是对其拥有广阔市场机会以及对更多地区覆盖的需求的认可。Palantir还加深了与ISV（综合服务供应商）的关系，ISV可以在没有其参与的情况下转售Palantir的产品，并提供Palantir直销团队无法处理的额外覆盖范围。</li><li><b>一只脚在公共部门，一只脚在私营部门</b>. Palantir 因成为一家大型联邦政府承包商而声名鹊起，但其产品对越来越痴迷于大数据价值的企业部门来说同样具有吸引力。大多数软件公司一开始主要与企业买家打交道，然后希望获得FedRAMP认证，以便以后销售给公共部门客户。Palantir 的做法恰恰相反：但现在，它与财富 100 强公司的势头持续增长，客户增加继续以令人印象深刻的速度呈现。</li><li><b>自由现金流。</b>尽管从 GAAP 的角度来看尚未盈利，但 Palantir 继续超出自由现金流的内部预期，这意味着该业务是自筹资金的（与许多其他快速增长的软件公司不同，它们仍然需要筹集资金来弥补亏损）。</li></ul><b>估值不便宜，但比过去更合理</b></blockquote></p><p> I wouldn't go so far as to say that Palantir's recent correction has left the stock at cheap levels - but for the caliber of this company's brand, plus its consistent combination of hyper-growth at scale while building up profitability and margins, I view its current valuation as quite reasonable.</p><p><blockquote>我不会说 Palantir 最近的调整使该股处于廉价水平 - 但对于该公司的品牌规模，加上其在建立盈利能力和利润率的同时持续的规模高速增长，我认为它目前的估值相当合理。</blockquote></p><p> At current share prices near $18, Palantir trades at a market cap of $35.99 billion. After netting off the $2.48 billion cash pile on its books (another reason to be bullish on Palantir: it has a load of cash and is unencumbered by debt), its resulting <b>enterprise value is $33.51 billion.</b></p><p><blockquote>目前股价接近 18 美元，Palantir 的市值为 359.9 亿美元。在扣除账面上 24.8 亿美元的现金后（看好 Palantir 的另一个原因：它拥有大量现金，并且不受债务负担），其结果<b>企业价值为335.1亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> For next fiscal year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Palantir to deliver $1.98 billion in revenue, representing 30% y/y revenue growth (data from Yahoo Finance). Considering the company has committed to 30%+ annual revenue growth throughout 2022 (and this is a company that has routinely delivered well ahead of its promises), I'd say this outlook is a little dim. Yet regardless of that, at this revenue estimate Palantir trades at <b>16.9x EV/FY22 revenue.</b></p><p><blockquote>与此同时，华尔街分析师预计 Palantir 将实现 19.8 亿美元的收入，同比增长 30%（数据来自雅虎财经）。考虑到该公司承诺在 2022 年全年实现 30% 以上的年收入增长（而且这家公司经常远远超出其承诺），我认为这个前景有点黯淡。尽管如此，根据这一收入估计，Palantir 的交易价格为<b>16.9 倍 EV/2022 财年收入。</b></blockquote></p><p> Again, we can hardly call this cheap, and in the face of rising interest rates, certainly Palantir's prior valuation multiples in the high-20s were unsustainable. But given this company's rapid growth trajectory, I'd say the ~$18 price level still represents a great entry point for the longer-term investor.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们很难以如此便宜的价格看涨期权，而且面对不断上升的利率，Palantir 之前在 20 多岁的估值倍数肯定是不可持续的。但考虑到这家公司的快速增长轨迹，我认为约 18 美元的价格水平对于长期投资者来说仍然是一个很好的切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q3 results showcase tremendous fundamental traction, especially in the commercial segment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度业绩显示了巨大的基本面牵引力，尤其是在商业领域</b></blockquote></p><p> We additionally note that Palantir's end-of-year correction has been accompanied by a continuation of its strong fundamentals. Take a look at the Q3 earnings results below:</p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，Palantir 的年终调整伴随着其强劲基本面的延续。看看下面的第三季度盈利结果：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 3. Palantir Q3 results</p><p><blockquote>图3。Palantir第三季度业绩</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e606183fac49ce4616a25d86d7fac0cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"585\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's revenue grew at a robust 35% y/y pace to $392.1 million in the quarter, beating Wall Street's expectations of $386.6 million (+33% y/y) by a two-point margin. We note that revenue growth did decelerate versus 49% y/y growth in Q2, but that's largely due to an easier comp versus the pandemic period in Q2 of last year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 本季度收入同比强劲增长 35%，达到 3.921 亿美元，超出华尔街预期的 3.866 亿美元（同比增长 33%）两个百分点。我们注意到，与第二季度 49% 的同比增长率相比，收入增长确实有所放缓，但这主要是由于与去年第二季度的大流行时期相比，收入增长更容易。</blockquote></p><p> The major highlight in Q3 was Palantir's success in driving enterprise go-to-market. The company reported commercial revenue growth of 37% y/y in Q3 - which, despite tougher comps, represented substantial acceleration over the prior few quarters:</p><p><blockquote>第三季度的主要亮点是 Palantir 在推动企业上市方面的成功。该公司报告第三季度商业收入同比增长 37%，尽管竞争更加艰难，但比前几个季度大幅加速：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 4. Palantir commercial revenue trends</p><p><blockquote>图4。Palantir 商业收入趋势</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ad4016e482cb4fc94422618c18cd3a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We note as well that when counting U.S. commercial revenue only, Palantir grew domestic enterprise revenue at a blazing <b>103% y/y pace.</b></p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，仅计算美国商业收入时，Palantir 国内企业收入增长迅猛<b>同比增长 103%。</b></blockquote></p><p> Note as well that as of the moment, Palantir remains a relatively early-stage enterprise software vendor with relatively few, but large customers. Q3 saw the biggest customer expansion in Palantir's history. The company added 34 net-new customers in Q3 to end the quarter at 203 total customers, which is a significant 20% expansion in the company's customer base in the space of a single quarter. Year over year, the company also boosted its commercial customer counts by 46%.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，截至目前，Palantir仍然是一家相对早期的企业软件供应商，客户相对较少，但规模较大。第三季度见证了 Palantir 历史上最大的客户扩张。该公司第三季度净增客户 34 家，截至本季度末客户总数为 203 家，这意味着该公司客户群在单季度内显着扩大了 20%。该公司的商业客户数量也同比增长了 46%。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 5. Palantir customer adds</p><p><blockquote>图5。Palantir 客户添加</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c334545c0f1a8387eead268cc0ce5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Recall as well that for its enterprise customers, Palantir adopts a \"land and expand\" playbook that many SaaS companies adhere to. These customers may start off as smaller deployments that grow substantially over time.</p><p><blockquote>还要记住，对于其企业客户，Palantir采用了许多SaaS公司坚持的“土地和扩张”策略。这些客户可能从较小的部署开始，随着时间的推移会大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Equally worth noting is that Palantir's <b>billings</b> expanded 56% y/y to $347 million. The surplus of Palantir's billings growth rates over its revenue growth, plus the sharp buildup in its remaining performance obligations, give us confidence that the company will be able to make good on its promise of sustaining 30%+ revenue growth for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>同样值得注意的是，Palantir<b>比林斯</b>同比增长 56%，达到 3.47 亿美元。Palantir 的账单增长率超过其收入增长，加上其剩余履约义务的急剧增加，让我们相信该公司将能够兑现未来几年维持 30% 以上收入增长的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, a word on profitability. Palantir's customer growth, and at a positive contribution margin as well, has driven the company to dramatically boost its adjusted free cash flow. In Q3, adjusted FCF hit $119 million, or a ~30% adjusted FCF margin - versus cash <b>burn</b> of -$53 million in the prior-year period.</p><p><blockquote>最后，谈谈盈利能力。Palantir 的客户增长以及正贡献率促使该公司大幅增加调整后的自由现金流。第三季度，调整后自由现金流达到 1.19 亿美元，调整后自由现金流利润率约为 30% - 与现金相比<b>燃烧</b>上年同期为-5300万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 6. Palantir FCF trends</p><p><blockquote>图6。Palantir FCF 趋势</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca53d0292b7696376d644c0d6a85e707\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Building on the strength in cash flow that the company has seen all year, Palantir management also increased its annual FCF guidance for FY21 to $400+ million, versus a prior outlook of just $300+ million. These moves, in my view, solidify to investors in a very risk-off market mindset that Palantir isn't just growing robustly, but also keeping profitability balance in mind.</p><p><blockquote>在公司全年现金流强劲的基础上，Palantir 管理层还将 2021 财年的年度自由现金流指引提高至 4 亿多美元，而之前的预期仅为 3 亿多美元。在我看来，这些举措巩固了投资者对风险规避的市场心态，即 Palantir 不仅增长强劲，而且还保持了盈利平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要要点</b></blockquote></p><p> In my view, Palantir retains a very long runway for success. The company's undisputed category leadership in big data and analytics continues to prove out new use cases for both public and private-sector teams, and the fact that Palantir can continue to grow at >30% y/y despite hitting an expected ~$2 billion annual revenue run rate next year further solidifies that Palantir is a unique and rare story in the software sector. Take advantage of the ~30% correction since November to build up a well-timed position in this stock.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，Palantir 为成功保留了一条很长的跑道。该公司在大数据和分析领域无可争议的类别领先地位继续为公共和私营部门团队证明新的用例，事实上，尽管预计明年年收入将达到约 20 亿美元，但 Palantir 仍能继续以 30% 以上的速度增长明年，这进一步巩固了 Palantir 是软件领域一个独特而罕见的故事。利用 11 月以来约 30% 的回调，及时建仓该股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476170-palantir-stock-buy-the-dip-before-year-end\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476170-palantir-stock-buy-the-dip-before-year-end","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184116002","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Palantir have dropped 30% since the start of November, despite a fundamental business that continues to thrive.\nIn particular, Palantir has been successful at diversifying away from government contracts, with overall commercial revenue growth accelerating in Q3 and more than doubling in the U.S.\nStill, the government business is not slacking, with the company winning recent contracts with the Air Force, Department of Health and Human Services, and National Institutes of Health.\nCash flow is also trending ahead of plan, driving the company to boost its full-year cash flow guidance by $100 million.\n\nAndreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment\nThe mantra of \"thinking and investing for the long term\" is a well-touted investment principle, yet rarely ever put into practice. It's also a rule that is most commonly broken in the tech sector, where investors choose their stocks primarily based on momentum and rarely based on fundamentals and value.\nSo when the great growth correction of 2021 happened in the fourth quarter this year, while many stocks certainly deserved a small correction and a breather in valuations, many high-quality names got knocked down multiple pegs far more than their fundamentals justify. In this bucket is Palantir (PLTR), the big data analytics powerhouse which has seen a tremendous correction in its share price despite a business that has never looked healthier.\nPerhaps alone among high-profile software IPOs, Palantir has had a very rocky trading journey since going public last October. Palantir took a while to get off the ground, as investors worried early on that the lack of an insider lockup period would pressure Palantir's ability to rally. The stock did end up rallying and peaked near $40 in mid-February, before proceeding to trade in a very jagged and choppy fashion throughout the rest of the year, including a ~30% decline since November alongside other tech growth stocks.\nData by YCharts\nThroughout this tumultuous time period, I've happily held onto my Palantir stock, and this company is one of the rare exceptions where I'm very bullish on a stock that is technically trading at quite expensive valuation multiples (though, with the sharp correction from February peaks, Palantir isn't trading at the egregiously expensive multiples it was trading at earlier). I continue to view Palantir as a tech mega-cap in the making, one with a powerhouse software platform that is broadly applicable across industries, and across both the public and private sectors. Currently dominant primarily in the United States, Palantir also has broadly untested expansion opportunities abroad, where innovation in big data and machine learning technologies has not quite yet matured.\nStay long here, and add to your positions in Palantir at its new lower price before year-end: in my view, Palantir is well-equipped to outperform the market indices for years to come.\nRecent wins showcase how prominent Palantir is\nBefore we get into more granular details and fundamentals, it's worthwhile to illustrate that Palantir has been busy from a go-to-market perspective. The company is always on the heels of some large, transformational deal, and the current situation is no different. In particular, the company has just recently signed a multi-year $60 million deal with the National Institutes of Health:\nFigure 1. Palantir NIH win\nSource: Palantir Q3 earnings deck\nAnd, building off the strength that Palantir has historically enjoyed with the U.S. armed forces, the company also signed a four-year $87 million deal with the Department of Veterans Affairs:\nFigure 2. Palantir VA win\nSource: Palantir Q3 earnings deck\nAnd though the large deals that Palantir showcase are typically public-sector deals, the company's commercial/enterprise sales have recently picked up steam as well, which we'll discuss in further detail in this article.\nThe bullish thesis for Palantir, revisited\nWith the recent pessimism in Palantir stock over the past two months, it can be easy for investors to forget the longer-term bullish thesis and fundamental merits that this company possesses in abundance.\nHere's a refresher of all the key reasons why this company is a superstar:\n\nBig data is a massive discipline that can be applied in nearly limitless ways.Palantir isn't a software company that serves only one or a limited set of use cases. Data and inferences that can be made from data are prevalent in just about everything: which explains why Palantir is such a powerful tool for both public and private sector clients.\nGrowth at scale.Despite being at a ~$2 billion annual revenue scale, Palantir continues to deliver 30-40% y/y revenue growth, and its long-term outlook calls for the company to be able to sustain growth rates in excess of 30% y/y through at least 2025. Few companies are able to achieve this kind of growth at scale, and it's a testament to the wide applicability of Palantir's products and the humongous clientele it has drawn (in particular, the U.S. Army).\nStepping up go-to-market momentum.Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. The company has stepped up its sales hiring this year, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir also has deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir's products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir's direct sales force can't handle.\nOne foot in the public sector, one foot in private. Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Most software companies start off as primarily dealing with enterprise buyers, and then hopefully getting FedRAMP certification to sell into public sector clients later. Palantir did the reverse: but now, its momentum with Fortune 100 companies is continuing to grow, and customer adds are continuing to trend at an impressive pace.\nFree cash flow.Though not yet profitable from a GAAP standpoint, Palantir continues to exceed internal expectations for free cash flow, which means the business is self-financing (a departure from. many other rapid-growth software companies that continue to need to raise capital to finance their losses).\n\nValuation isn't cheap, but more reasonable than in the past\nI wouldn't go so far as to say that Palantir's recent correction has left the stock at cheap levels - but for the caliber of this company's brand, plus its consistent combination of hyper-growth at scale while building up profitability and margins, I view its current valuation as quite reasonable.\nAt current share prices near $18, Palantir trades at a market cap of $35.99 billion. After netting off the $2.48 billion cash pile on its books (another reason to be bullish on Palantir: it has a load of cash and is unencumbered by debt), its resulting enterprise value is $33.51 billion.\nFor next fiscal year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Palantir to deliver $1.98 billion in revenue, representing 30% y/y revenue growth (data from Yahoo Finance). Considering the company has committed to 30%+ annual revenue growth throughout 2022 (and this is a company that has routinely delivered well ahead of its promises), I'd say this outlook is a little dim. Yet regardless of that, at this revenue estimate Palantir trades at 16.9x EV/FY22 revenue.\nAgain, we can hardly call this cheap, and in the face of rising interest rates, certainly Palantir's prior valuation multiples in the high-20s were unsustainable. But given this company's rapid growth trajectory, I'd say the ~$18 price level still represents a great entry point for the longer-term investor.\nQ3 results showcase tremendous fundamental traction, especially in the commercial segment\nWe additionally note that Palantir's end-of-year correction has been accompanied by a continuation of its strong fundamentals. Take a look at the Q3 earnings results below:\nFigure 3. Palantir Q3 results\nSource: Palantir Q3 earnings deck\nPalantir's revenue grew at a robust 35% y/y pace to $392.1 million in the quarter, beating Wall Street's expectations of $386.6 million (+33% y/y) by a two-point margin. We note that revenue growth did decelerate versus 49% y/y growth in Q2, but that's largely due to an easier comp versus the pandemic period in Q2 of last year.\nThe major highlight in Q3 was Palantir's success in driving enterprise go-to-market. The company reported commercial revenue growth of 37% y/y in Q3 - which, despite tougher comps, represented substantial acceleration over the prior few quarters:\nFigure 4. Palantir commercial revenue trends\nSource: Palantir Q3 earnings deck\nWe note as well that when counting U.S. commercial revenue only, Palantir grew domestic enterprise revenue at a blazing 103% y/y pace.\nNote as well that as of the moment, Palantir remains a relatively early-stage enterprise software vendor with relatively few, but large customers. Q3 saw the biggest customer expansion in Palantir's history. The company added 34 net-new customers in Q3 to end the quarter at 203 total customers, which is a significant 20% expansion in the company's customer base in the space of a single quarter. Year over year, the company also boosted its commercial customer counts by 46%.\nFigure 5. Palantir customer adds\nSource: Palantir Q3 earnings deck\nRecall as well that for its enterprise customers, Palantir adopts a \"land and expand\" playbook that many SaaS companies adhere to. These customers may start off as smaller deployments that grow substantially over time.\nEqually worth noting is that Palantir's billings expanded 56% y/y to $347 million. The surplus of Palantir's billings growth rates over its revenue growth, plus the sharp buildup in its remaining performance obligations, give us confidence that the company will be able to make good on its promise of sustaining 30%+ revenue growth for years to come.\nLastly, a word on profitability. Palantir's customer growth, and at a positive contribution margin as well, has driven the company to dramatically boost its adjusted free cash flow. In Q3, adjusted FCF hit $119 million, or a ~30% adjusted FCF margin - versus cash burn of -$53 million in the prior-year period.\nFigure 6. Palantir FCF trends\nSource: Palantir Q3 earnings deck\nBuilding on the strength in cash flow that the company has seen all year, Palantir management also increased its annual FCF guidance for FY21 to $400+ million, versus a prior outlook of just $300+ million. These moves, in my view, solidify to investors in a very risk-off market mindset that Palantir isn't just growing robustly, but also keeping profitability balance in mind.\nKey takeaways\nIn my view, Palantir retains a very long runway for success. The company's undisputed category leadership in big data and analytics continues to prove out new use cases for both public and private-sector teams, and the fact that Palantir can continue to grow at >30% y/y despite hitting an expected ~$2 billion annual revenue run rate next year further solidifies that Palantir is a unique and rare story in the software sector. Take advantage of the ~30% correction since November to build up a well-timed position in this stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698163733,"gmtCreate":1640319446722,"gmtModify":1640319813985,"author":{"id":"4096118739780230","authorId":"4096118739780230","name":"simi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096118739780230","authorIdStr":"4096118739780230"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh! should we buy this stock?","listText":"Oh! should we buy this stock?","text":"Oh! should we buy this stock?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698163733","repostId":"2193211571","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693721904,"gmtCreate":1640084423114,"gmtModify":1640084423216,"author":{"id":"4096118739780230","authorId":"4096118739780230","name":"simi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096118739780230","authorIdStr":"4096118739780230"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy for long term 🚀🚀","listText":"Buy for long term 🚀🚀","text":"Buy for long term 🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693721904","repostId":"1117226796","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1117226796","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640057164,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117226796?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 11:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的 3 个理由以及为什么它仍然值得购买</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117226796","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.</li> <li>PLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.</li> <li>Despite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7230cdd890b86f9941b99b1503d04049\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>spxChrome/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir Technologies 是一只战场股票。对于多头来说，听取空头的论点是个好主意。</li><li>PLTR稀释了其股东，但这不一定是一个大问题。</li><li>尽管存在一些利率阻力，但由于强大的护城河和良好的增长前景，PLTR 对我来说似乎是一项不错的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>spxChrome/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies (PLTR) 是一只陷入困境的成长型股票，最近几周，随着股价持续下跌，空头一直在获胜。确实有一些重要的看跌论点，例如稀释、对政府合同的依赖以及利率上升。然而，我仍然相信 Palantir Technologies 是一项有吸引力的长期投资，因为其技术可能会在未来许多年内带来巨大的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3 Issues Brought Up By Bears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头提出的3个问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 是一只成长型股票，既有高度确信的多头，也有高度确信的空头。总的来说，我在这里是看涨的阵营，但看看空头的论点也是一个好主意。反对Palantir的三个最常见的论点如下：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Shareholder Dilution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.股东摊薄</b></blockquote></p><p> Growth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:</p><p><blockquote>全公司范围的增长很重要，但每股增长更重要。有许多例子表明，公司股票数量的变化可以创造或摧毁很多股东价值。例如，苹果 (AAPL) 的净利润在过去十年中增长了约 190%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5263c8346cfbbb898f1d1ac9a5bead\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于股票数量减少，其每股收益增长了 350%，更具吸引力，但回购创造了大量股东价值。也有一些例子表明，股票数量的增加摧毁了很多股东的价值，例如花旗集团 (C)：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc39008812f5e2d0082dedc95b025c68\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Massive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:</p><p><blockquote>大衰退期间的大规模股票发行导致自 2007 年以来每股收益下降了 75%，尽管同期净利润有所增长。因此，查看公司股票数量的变化是有意义的，因为这些变化从长远来看会产生很大的影响。在 Palantir，我们看到自公司上市以来，股票数量一直在大幅增加。在最近一个季度，Palantir 的股票数量如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917ca4d7a390ced61d7c92d528f84fc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Press Release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 新闻稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Compared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was 1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.</p><p><blockquote>与第二季度相比，Palantir 的平均股数为 18.95 亿股，季度增长 3.5%，年增长率约为十几岁左右。当然，这一点根本不容忽视，当他们声称股东正在以有意义的速度被稀释时，值得争论。另一方面，Palantir 的业务增长率远高于每季度 3%，因为该公司预计今年的收入增长约为 40%，而且 Palantir 在未来几年也应该实现巨大的业务增长。即使Palantir的股票数量未来每年增长10%-15%，由于PLTR的快速增长，每股收入仍将每年增长25%以上。我还相信，随着时间的推移，稀释程度将会下降。不仅亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOG）或Meta（FB）等许多其他成长型公司都是如此，而且从期权奖励的角度来看，这也是合乎逻辑的。当一家公司尚未公开交易且其未来仍然更加不确定时，期权奖励尤其丰厚，但随着公司的成熟，随着公司风险的降低，员工会更加放心，他们不再需要大量的期权包。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，Palantir 还产生了强劲的自由现金流，这将使公司能够在未来进行股票回购，这也将有助于提高稀释率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Reliance on government contracts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 依赖政府合同</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a recent bearish article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:</p><p><blockquote>在最近一篇悲观的文章中，Seeking Alpha 撰稿人 On The Pulse 认为 Palantir 被高估了，其对政府合同的依赖是一个问题。事实上，Palantir Technologies 如今在很大程度上依赖政府合同，但我不认为这是一个主要问题。首先，由于其商业业务的大规模增长，Palantir 最近已经摆脱了政府合同的多元化：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de23409915ee3811691b986a42ece899\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Technologies presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 技术演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Palantir 的商业业务近年来的增长速度远远快于其政府业务，这表明来自各行各业的商业客户显然都看到了 Palantir 技术的巨大价值——否则，他们就不会快速购买。和</blockquote></p><p> With the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.</p><p><blockquote>随着商业业务增长率超过政府业务增长率，多年来，Palantir将成为一家越来越少依赖政府合同的公司，并最终转变为一家专注于B2B的软件/技术公司。即使 Palantir 永远是一家以政府为中心的公司（根据各个业务部门目前的增长率，这似乎不太可能），但这不一定是一个问题。为政府工作意味着交易对手风险很小，现有的关系可以很容易地用来获得未来的合同。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，随着政府预算相对稳步增长，良好的政府关系带来了相当大的增长机会——特别是在Palantir活跃的国防技术/安全技术领域，因为该领域有巨大的进一步投资需求。</blockquote></p><p> The claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actually<i>declined</i>year-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，政府关注导致缺乏可扩展性的说法也是错误的。根据 Palantir 最新的季度报告（上文链接），其运营费用在 2020 年第三季度至 2021 年第三季度期间增加了 900 万美元，而同期收入增加了 1.03 亿美元。这支持了基于股份的薪酬的变化。如果包括这些 SBC 费用，Palantir 的费用实际上<i>拒绝</i>同比增长，而该公司的收入增长了近 40%。因此，我认为，Palantir 多年来不会产生任何规模优势的说法似乎是没有根据的。相反，数据表明 Palantir 将能够大幅提高利润率——该公司调整后毛利润大幅增长 9000 万美元，而调整后运营费用仅增长 900 万美元——从而实现了出色的运营杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Exposure to rising rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 面临利率上升的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Massive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.</p><p><blockquote>大规模通胀将迫使美联储在 2022 年及以后加息，这可能是成长型股票的一个问题。与增长缓慢或没有增长但在短期内产生大量未来利润的公司相比，今天不盈利或绝大多数利润的公司更容易受到贴现率上升的影响。我相信，这可能会导致未来几年价值股的表现优于成长型股。Palantir 尚未盈利，自然属于“增长”类别，利率上升可能会产生高于平均水平的影响。我相信，这里没有真正的反驳论点——在其他条件相同的情况下，与艾伯维 (ABBV) 等价值股相比，利率上升对 Palantir 的影响确实会更大。</blockquote></p><p> This being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这对 Palantir 来说是一个渐进的负面影响，并不意味着在任何情况下都必须避免购买股票。事实上，尽管利率上升可能带来一些潜在的不利因素，但如果其他论点具有更大的分量，Palantir 仍然可能是一项有吸引力的投资——我相信这是真的，因为我看到 PLTR 的巨大增长潜力和巨大护城河超过了利率上升带来的一些近期不利因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Palantir Is Still Attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么 Palantir 仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.</p><p><blockquote>空头提出了一系列反对 Palantir 的论点，如上所述，这些论点可能有道理。我相信它们在某些情况下可能被夸大了，但看看熊的论点不会有什么坏处——事实上，为了做出更明智的决定，看看双方似乎是个好主意。稀释确实是一个问题，尽管我不认为这会是一个太大的阻力，因为 PLTR 的业务增长很容易超过稀释，而且总体而言，稀释应该会在未来几年放缓。由于高于平均水平的商业业务增长率，对政府的依赖将随着时间的推移而减弱，总的来说，与政府做生意无论如何都不是一件坏事。从我在PLTR的数据中看到的情况来看，PLTR缺乏可扩展性的说法似乎是错误的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased Foundry for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些争论，我相信 Palantir 仍然很有吸引力：该公司发展迅速，在政府业务和商业方面都具有数十年的增长潜力，而且 Palantir 似乎拥有非常宽阔的护城河。这种合并最终可能会使 Palantir 成为最大、最重要的公司之一——尽管投资者不应指望这种情况在短期内发生。相反，我相信，随着我们的世界变得越来越渴望数据，Palantir 很有可能在 2020 年代及以后以相当大的速度增长——政府和企业都将试图从所有这些数据中获得最大价值，而 Palantir 凭借其量身定制的解决方案将为客户提供这种价值。凭借最近展示的 Foundry for crypto 等新工具，Palantir 处于各种新兴技术的前沿。由于 Palantir 可以接触到顶尖人才——这是 SBC 和出色工作环境的结果——我相信 Palantir 很有可能能够在大数据/人工智能领域的各种未来市场中具有高度竞争力，而这些市场甚至可能还不存在。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我不是一个成长型投资者——相反，我主要关注价格有吸引力、现金流强劲的股票，通常是那些支付股息的股票。然而，Palantir 在我的投资组合中有些异类——它是一只成长型股票，尚未真正盈利，而且其大部分潜力还需要数年时间。由于巨大的市场机会、优秀的人才和宽阔的护城河的极具吸引力的结合，Palantir 对我来说仍然是一项有吸引力的长期投资。这不是一只能让投资者快速致富的股票，但我相信 Palantir 很有可能在未来 10 多年内成为一家非常占主导地位的重要公司。明年收入的 19 倍，PLTR 并不便宜，但当我们预计该公司将在未来许多年内以强劲的速度增长时，这对我来说也一点也不奇怪。听听空头的论点是有道理的，但我相信这里利大于弊。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的 3 个理由以及为什么它仍然值得购买</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的 3 个理由以及为什么它仍然值得购买</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-21 11:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.</li> <li>PLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.</li> <li>Despite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7230cdd890b86f9941b99b1503d04049\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>spxChrome/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir Technologies 是一只战场股票。对于多头来说，听取空头的论点是个好主意。</li><li>PLTR稀释了其股东，但这不一定是一个大问题。</li><li>尽管存在一些利率阻力，但由于强大的护城河和良好的增长前景，PLTR 对我来说似乎是一项不错的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>spxChrome/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies (PLTR) 是一只陷入困境的成长型股票，最近几周，随着股价持续下跌，空头一直在获胜。确实有一些重要的看跌论点，例如稀释、对政府合同的依赖以及利率上升。然而，我仍然相信 Palantir Technologies 是一项有吸引力的长期投资，因为其技术可能会在未来许多年内带来巨大的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3 Issues Brought Up By Bears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头提出的3个问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 是一只成长型股票，既有高度确信的多头，也有高度确信的空头。总的来说，我在这里是看涨的阵营，但看看空头的论点也是一个好主意。反对Palantir的三个最常见的论点如下：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Shareholder Dilution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.股东摊薄</b></blockquote></p><p> Growth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:</p><p><blockquote>全公司范围的增长很重要，但每股增长更重要。有许多例子表明，公司股票数量的变化可以创造或摧毁很多股东价值。例如，苹果 (AAPL) 的净利润在过去十年中增长了约 190%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5263c8346cfbbb898f1d1ac9a5bead\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于股票数量减少，其每股收益增长了 350%，更具吸引力，但回购创造了大量股东价值。也有一些例子表明，股票数量的增加摧毁了很多股东的价值，例如花旗集团 (C)：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc39008812f5e2d0082dedc95b025c68\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Massive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:</p><p><blockquote>大衰退期间的大规模股票发行导致自 2007 年以来每股收益下降了 75%，尽管同期净利润有所增长。因此，查看公司股票数量的变化是有意义的，因为这些变化从长远来看会产生很大的影响。在 Palantir，我们看到自公司上市以来，股票数量一直在大幅增加。在最近一个季度，Palantir 的股票数量如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917ca4d7a390ced61d7c92d528f84fc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Press Release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 新闻稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Compared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was 1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.</p><p><blockquote>与第二季度相比，Palantir 的平均股数为 18.95 亿股，季度增长 3.5%，年增长率约为十几岁左右。当然，这一点根本不容忽视，当他们声称股东正在以有意义的速度被稀释时，值得争论。另一方面，Palantir 的业务增长率远高于每季度 3%，因为该公司预计今年的收入增长约为 40%，而且 Palantir 在未来几年也应该实现巨大的业务增长。即使Palantir的股票数量未来每年增长10%-15%，由于PLTR的快速增长，每股收入仍将每年增长25%以上。我还相信，随着时间的推移，稀释程度将会下降。不仅亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOG）或Meta（FB）等许多其他成长型公司都是如此，而且从期权奖励的角度来看，这也是合乎逻辑的。当一家公司尚未公开交易且其未来仍然更加不确定时，期权奖励尤其丰厚，但随着公司的成熟，随着公司风险的降低，员工会更加放心，他们不再需要大量的期权包。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，Palantir 还产生了强劲的自由现金流，这将使公司能够在未来进行股票回购，这也将有助于提高稀释率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Reliance on government contracts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 依赖政府合同</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a recent bearish article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:</p><p><blockquote>在最近一篇悲观的文章中，Seeking Alpha 撰稿人 On The Pulse 认为 Palantir 被高估了，其对政府合同的依赖是一个问题。事实上，Palantir Technologies 如今在很大程度上依赖政府合同，但我不认为这是一个主要问题。首先，由于其商业业务的大规模增长，Palantir 最近已经摆脱了政府合同的多元化：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de23409915ee3811691b986a42ece899\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Technologies presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 技术演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Palantir 的商业业务近年来的增长速度远远快于其政府业务，这表明来自各行各业的商业客户显然都看到了 Palantir 技术的巨大价值——否则，他们就不会快速购买。和</blockquote></p><p> With the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.</p><p><blockquote>随着商业业务增长率超过政府业务增长率，多年来，Palantir将成为一家越来越少依赖政府合同的公司，并最终转变为一家专注于B2B的软件/技术公司。即使 Palantir 永远是一家以政府为中心的公司（根据各个业务部门目前的增长率，这似乎不太可能），但这不一定是一个问题。为政府工作意味着交易对手风险很小，现有的关系可以很容易地用来获得未来的合同。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，随着政府预算相对稳步增长，良好的政府关系带来了相当大的增长机会——特别是在Palantir活跃的国防技术/安全技术领域，因为该领域有巨大的进一步投资需求。</blockquote></p><p> The claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actually<i>declined</i>year-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，政府关注导致缺乏可扩展性的说法也是错误的。根据 Palantir 最新的季度报告（上文链接），其运营费用在 2020 年第三季度至 2021 年第三季度期间增加了 900 万美元，而同期收入增加了 1.03 亿美元。这支持了基于股份的薪酬的变化。如果包括这些 SBC 费用，Palantir 的费用实际上<i>拒绝</i>同比增长，而该公司的收入增长了近 40%。因此，我认为，Palantir 多年来不会产生任何规模优势的说法似乎是没有根据的。相反，数据表明 Palantir 将能够大幅提高利润率——该公司调整后毛利润大幅增长 9000 万美元，而调整后运营费用仅增长 900 万美元——从而实现了出色的运营杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Exposure to rising rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 面临利率上升的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Massive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.</p><p><blockquote>大规模通胀将迫使美联储在 2022 年及以后加息，这可能是成长型股票的一个问题。与增长缓慢或没有增长但在短期内产生大量未来利润的公司相比，今天不盈利或绝大多数利润的公司更容易受到贴现率上升的影响。我相信，这可能会导致未来几年价值股的表现优于成长型股。Palantir 尚未盈利，自然属于“增长”类别，利率上升可能会产生高于平均水平的影响。我相信，这里没有真正的反驳论点——在其他条件相同的情况下，与艾伯维 (ABBV) 等价值股相比，利率上升对 Palantir 的影响确实会更大。</blockquote></p><p> This being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这对 Palantir 来说是一个渐进的负面影响，并不意味着在任何情况下都必须避免购买股票。事实上，尽管利率上升可能带来一些潜在的不利因素，但如果其他论点具有更大的分量，Palantir 仍然可能是一项有吸引力的投资——我相信这是真的，因为我看到 PLTR 的巨大增长潜力和巨大护城河超过了利率上升带来的一些近期不利因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Palantir Is Still Attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么 Palantir 仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.</p><p><blockquote>空头提出了一系列反对 Palantir 的论点，如上所述，这些论点可能有道理。我相信它们在某些情况下可能被夸大了，但看看熊的论点不会有什么坏处——事实上，为了做出更明智的决定，看看双方似乎是个好主意。稀释确实是一个问题，尽管我不认为这会是一个太大的阻力，因为 PLTR 的业务增长很容易超过稀释，而且总体而言，稀释应该会在未来几年放缓。由于高于平均水平的商业业务增长率，对政府的依赖将随着时间的推移而减弱，总的来说，与政府做生意无论如何都不是一件坏事。从我在PLTR的数据中看到的情况来看，PLTR缺乏可扩展性的说法似乎是错误的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased Foundry for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些争论，我相信 Palantir 仍然很有吸引力：该公司发展迅速，在政府业务和商业方面都具有数十年的增长潜力，而且 Palantir 似乎拥有非常宽阔的护城河。这种合并最终可能会使 Palantir 成为最大、最重要的公司之一——尽管投资者不应指望这种情况在短期内发生。相反，我相信，随着我们的世界变得越来越渴望数据，Palantir 很有可能在 2020 年代及以后以相当大的速度增长——政府和企业都将试图从所有这些数据中获得最大价值，而 Palantir 凭借其量身定制的解决方案将为客户提供这种价值。凭借最近展示的 Foundry for crypto 等新工具，Palantir 处于各种新兴技术的前沿。由于 Palantir 可以接触到顶尖人才——这是 SBC 和出色工作环境的结果——我相信 Palantir 很有可能能够在大数据/人工智能领域的各种未来市场中具有高度竞争力，而这些市场甚至可能还不存在。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我不是一个成长型投资者——相反，我主要关注价格有吸引力、现金流强劲的股票，通常是那些支付股息的股票。然而，Palantir 在我的投资组合中有些异类——它是一只成长型股票，尚未真正盈利，而且其大部分潜力还需要数年时间。由于巨大的市场机会、优秀的人才和宽阔的护城河的极具吸引力的结合，Palantir 对我来说仍然是一项有吸引力的长期投资。这不是一只能让投资者快速致富的股票，但我相信 Palantir 很有可能在未来 10 多年内成为一家非常占主导地位的重要公司。明年收入的 19 倍，PLTR 并不便宜，但当我们预计该公司将在未来许多年内以强劲的速度增长时，这对我来说也一点也不奇怪。听听空头的论点是有道理的，但我相信这里利大于弊。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475960-palantir-3-reasons-against-it-and-why-its-still-a-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475960-palantir-3-reasons-against-it-and-why-its-still-a-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117226796","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.\nPLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.\nDespite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.\n\nspxChrome/E+ via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nPalantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.\n3 Issues Brought Up By Bears\nPalantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:\n1. Shareholder Dilution\nGrowth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:\nData by YCharts\nThanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):\nData by YCharts\nMassive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:\nSource: Palantir Press Release\nCompared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was 1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.\n2. Reliance on government contracts\nIn a recent bearish article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:\nSource: Palantir Technologies presentation\nIn fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With\nWith the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.\nThe claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actuallydeclinedyear-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.\n3. Exposure to rising rates\nMassive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.\nThis being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.\nWhy Palantir Is Still Attractive\nBears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.\nPalantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased Foundry for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.\nTakeaway\nIn general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":692069529,"gmtCreate":1640793056873,"gmtModify":1640793056873,"author":{"id":"4096118739780230","authorId":"4096118739780230","name":"simi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096118739780230","authorIdStr":"4096118739780230"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"👍 Long term","listText":"👍 Long term","text":"👍 Long term","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692069529","repostId":"1184116002","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1184116002","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640140972,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1184116002?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-22 10:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Buy The Dip Before Year-End<blockquote>Palantir：年底前逢低买入</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184116002","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Palantir have dropped 30% since the start of November, despite a fundamental busi","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of Palantir have dropped 30% since the start of November, despite a fundamental business that continues to thrive.</li> <li>In particular, Palantir has been successful at diversifying away from government contracts, with overall commercial revenue growth accelerating in Q3 and more than doubling in the U.S.</li> <li>Still, the government business is not slacking, with the company winning recent contracts with the Air Force, Department of Health and Human Services, and National Institutes of Health.</li> <li>Cash flow is also trending ahead of plan, driving the company to boost its full-year cash flow guidance by $100 million.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27ed9cd275848c088c2f7966c6a9b0c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管基本面业务持续蓬勃发展，但 Palantir 的股价自 11 月初以来已下跌 30%。</li><li>特别是，Palantir 成功地实现了政府合同的多元化，第三季度整体商业收入增长加速，在美国增长了一倍多。</li><li>尽管如此，政府业务并没有懈怠，该公司最近赢得了与空军、卫生与公众服务部以及美国国立卫生研究院的合同。</li><li>现金流的趋势也超前于计划，推动该公司将全年现金流指引提高了 1 亿美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安德烈亚斯·伦茨/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The mantra of \"thinking and investing for the long term\" is a well-touted investment principle, yet rarely ever put into practice. It's also a rule that is most commonly broken in the tech sector, where investors choose their stocks primarily based on momentum and rarely based on fundamentals and value.</p><p><blockquote>“长期思考和投资”的口头禅是一个被吹捧的投资原则，但很少付诸实践。这也是科技行业最常被打破的规则，投资者主要根据势头选择股票，很少根据基本面和价值。</blockquote></p><p> So when the great growth correction of 2021 happened in the fourth quarter this year, while many stocks certainly deserved a small correction and a breather in valuations, many high-quality names got knocked down multiple pegs far more than their fundamentals justify. In this bucket is Palantir (PLTR), the big data analytics powerhouse which has seen a tremendous correction in its share price despite a business that has never looked healthier.</p><p><blockquote>因此，当 2021 年的大幅增长调整发生在今年第四季度时，虽然许多股票肯定应该得到小幅调整和估值喘息，但许多优质股票受到的多重挂钩打击远远超出了其基本面的合理范围。大数据分析巨头 Palantir (PLTR) 就是其中之一，尽管业务看起来从未如此健康，但其股价却出现了巨大调整。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps alone among high-profile software IPOs, Palantir has had a very rocky trading journey since going public last October. Palantir took a while to get off the ground, as investors worried early on that the lack of an insider lockup period would pressure Palantir's ability to rally. The stock did end up rallying and peaked near $40 in mid-February, before proceeding to trade in a very jagged and choppy fashion throughout the rest of the year, including a ~30% decline since November alongside other tech growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 可能是备受瞩目的软件 IPO 中唯一一家，自去年 10 月上市以来，它的交易历程非常坎坷。Palantir 花了一段时间才起步，因为投资者很早就担心缺乏内部锁定期会给 Palantir 的反弹能力带来压力。该股最终确实反弹，并在 2 月中旬达到 40 美元附近的峰值，然后在今年剩余时间里以非常锯齿状和波动的方式进行交易，包括自 11 月以来与其他科技股一起下跌了约 30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28dd4c60f2471cddc190b107c562cb57\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Throughout this tumultuous time period, I've happily held onto my Palantir stock, and this company is one of the rare exceptions where I'm <b>very bullish</b> on a stock that is technically trading at quite expensive valuation multiples (though, with the sharp correction from February peaks, Palantir isn't trading at the egregiously expensive multiples it was trading at earlier). I continue to view Palantir as a tech mega-cap in the making, one with a powerhouse software platform that is broadly applicable across industries, and across both the public and private sectors. Currently dominant primarily in the United States, Palantir also has broadly untested expansion opportunities abroad, where innovation in big data and machine learning technologies has not quite yet matured.</p><p><blockquote>在这段动荡的时期，我很高兴地持有我的 Palantir 股票，而这家公司是我持有的少数例外之一<b>非常看涨</b>从技术上讲，这只股票的交易估值倍数相当昂贵（不过，随着 2 月份峰值的大幅回调，Palantir 的交易倍数并没有像之前那样昂贵）。我仍然将 Palantir 视为一家正在形成的科技巨头，拥有广泛适用于各行各业、公共和私营部门的强大软件平台。Palantir目前主要在美国占据主导地位，在大数据和机器学习技术的创新尚未完全成熟的国外也有未经测试的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> Stay long here, and add to your positions in Palantir at its new lower price before year-end: in my view, Palantir is well-equipped to outperform the market indices for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>长期留在这里，并在年底前以新的较低价格增加您在 Palantir 的头寸：在我看来，Palantir 有能力在未来几年跑赢市场指数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent wins showcase how prominent Palantir is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近的胜利展示了 Palantir 的突出地位</b></blockquote></p><p> Before we get into more granular details and fundamentals, it's worthwhile to illustrate that Palantir has been busy from a go-to-market perspective. The company is always on the heels of some large, transformational deal, and the current situation is no different. In particular, the company has just recently signed a multi-year $60 million deal with the National Institutes of Health:</p><p><blockquote>在我们深入探讨更详细的细节和基本面之前，值得说明的是，Palantir 从上市的角度一直很忙。该公司总是紧随一些大型转型交易之后，目前的情况也不例外。特别是，该公司最近刚刚与美国国立卫生研究院签署了一项价值 6000 万美元的多年期协议：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Palantir NIH win</p><p><blockquote>图1。Palantir ni win</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db52b9f945c292c1b56f4d6b0a3ed00d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And, building off the strength that Palantir has historically enjoyed with the U.S. armed forces, the company also signed a four-year $87 million deal with the Department of Veterans Affairs:</p><p><blockquote>此外，凭借 Palantir 历来与美国武装部队的实力，该公司还与退伍军人事务部签署了一项为期四年、价值 8700 万美元的协议：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Palantir VA win</p><p><blockquote>图2。帕兰蒂尔和温</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905489ce382c58d0ea9896420a67ce9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And though the large deals that Palantir showcase are typically public-sector deals, the company's commercial/enterprise sales have recently picked up steam as well, which we'll discuss in further detail in this article.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Palantir展示的大宗交易通常是公共部门交易，但该公司的商业/企业销售最近也有所上升，我们将在本文中进一步讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bullish thesis for Palantir, revisited</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 的看涨论点，重新审视</b></blockquote></p><p> With the recent pessimism in Palantir stock over the past two months, it can be easy for investors to forget the longer-term bullish thesis and fundamental merits that this company possesses in abundance.</p><p><blockquote>由于过去两个月 Palantir 股票的悲观情绪，投资者很容易忘记该公司拥有的长期看涨论点和基本面优势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here's a refresher of all the key reasons why this company is a superstar:</p><p><blockquote>以下是这家公司成为超级明星的所有关键原因：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Big data is a massive discipline that can be applied in nearly limitless ways.</b>Palantir isn't a software company that serves only one or a limited set of use cases. Data and inferences that can be made from data are prevalent in just about everything: which explains why Palantir is such a powerful tool for both public and private sector clients.</li> <li><b>Growth at scale.</b>Despite being at a ~$2 billion annual revenue scale, Palantir continues to deliver 30-40% y/y revenue growth, and its long-term outlook calls for the company to be able to sustain growth rates in excess of 30% y/y through at least 2025. Few companies are able to achieve this kind of growth at scale, and it's a testament to the wide applicability of Palantir's products and the humongous clientele it has drawn (in particular, the U.S. Army).</li> <li><b>Stepping up go-to-market momentum.</b>Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. The company has stepped up its sales hiring this year, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir also has deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir's products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir's direct sales force can't handle.</li> <li><b>One foot in the public sector, one foot in private</b>. Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Most software companies start off as primarily dealing with enterprise buyers, and then hopefully getting FedRAMP certification to sell into public sector clients later. Palantir did the reverse: but now, its momentum with Fortune 100 companies is continuing to grow, and customer adds are continuing to trend at an impressive pace.</li> <li><b>Free cash flow.</b>Though not yet profitable from a GAAP standpoint, Palantir continues to exceed internal expectations for free cash flow, which means the business is self-financing (a departure from. many other rapid-growth software companies that continue to need to raise capital to finance their losses).</li> </ul> <b>Valuation isn't cheap, but more reasonable than in the past</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据是一门庞大的学科，可以以几乎无限的方式应用。</b>Palantir不是一家只服务于一个或有限一组用例的软件公司。数据和从数据中得出的推论几乎在所有事情中都很普遍：这解释了为什么Palantir对公共和私营部门客户来说都是如此强大的工具。</li><li><b>规模增长。</b>尽管年收入规模约为 20 亿美元，Palantir 仍继续实现 30-40% 的同比收入增长，其长期展望评级是该公司至少到 2025 年能够保持超过 30% 的同比增长率。很少有公司能够实现这种大规模增长，这证明了 Palantir 产品的广泛适用性及其吸引的庞大客户（特别是美国陆军）。</li><li><b>加大上市势头。</b>Palantir 正在通过各种渠道追求增长。该公司今年加大了销售招聘力度，这是对其拥有广阔市场机会以及对更多地区覆盖的需求的认可。Palantir还加深了与ISV（综合服务供应商）的关系，ISV可以在没有其参与的情况下转售Palantir的产品，并提供Palantir直销团队无法处理的额外覆盖范围。</li><li><b>一只脚在公共部门，一只脚在私营部门</b>. Palantir 因成为一家大型联邦政府承包商而声名鹊起，但其产品对越来越痴迷于大数据价值的企业部门来说同样具有吸引力。大多数软件公司一开始主要与企业买家打交道，然后希望获得FedRAMP认证，以便以后销售给公共部门客户。Palantir 的做法恰恰相反：但现在，它与财富 100 强公司的势头持续增长，客户增加继续以令人印象深刻的速度呈现。</li><li><b>自由现金流。</b>尽管从 GAAP 的角度来看尚未盈利，但 Palantir 继续超出自由现金流的内部预期，这意味着该业务是自筹资金的（与许多其他快速增长的软件公司不同，它们仍然需要筹集资金来弥补亏损）。</li></ul><b>估值不便宜，但比过去更合理</b></blockquote></p><p> I wouldn't go so far as to say that Palantir's recent correction has left the stock at cheap levels - but for the caliber of this company's brand, plus its consistent combination of hyper-growth at scale while building up profitability and margins, I view its current valuation as quite reasonable.</p><p><blockquote>我不会说 Palantir 最近的调整使该股处于廉价水平 - 但对于该公司的品牌规模，加上其在建立盈利能力和利润率的同时持续的规模高速增长，我认为它目前的估值相当合理。</blockquote></p><p> At current share prices near $18, Palantir trades at a market cap of $35.99 billion. After netting off the $2.48 billion cash pile on its books (another reason to be bullish on Palantir: it has a load of cash and is unencumbered by debt), its resulting <b>enterprise value is $33.51 billion.</b></p><p><blockquote>目前股价接近 18 美元，Palantir 的市值为 359.9 亿美元。在扣除账面上 24.8 亿美元的现金后（看好 Palantir 的另一个原因：它拥有大量现金，并且不受债务负担），其结果<b>企业价值为335.1亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> For next fiscal year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Palantir to deliver $1.98 billion in revenue, representing 30% y/y revenue growth (data from Yahoo Finance). Considering the company has committed to 30%+ annual revenue growth throughout 2022 (and this is a company that has routinely delivered well ahead of its promises), I'd say this outlook is a little dim. Yet regardless of that, at this revenue estimate Palantir trades at <b>16.9x EV/FY22 revenue.</b></p><p><blockquote>与此同时，华尔街分析师预计 Palantir 将实现 19.8 亿美元的收入，同比增长 30%（数据来自雅虎财经）。考虑到该公司承诺在 2022 年全年实现 30% 以上的年收入增长（而且这家公司经常远远超出其承诺），我认为这个前景有点黯淡。尽管如此，根据这一收入估计，Palantir 的交易价格为<b>16.9 倍 EV/2022 财年收入。</b></blockquote></p><p> Again, we can hardly call this cheap, and in the face of rising interest rates, certainly Palantir's prior valuation multiples in the high-20s were unsustainable. But given this company's rapid growth trajectory, I'd say the ~$18 price level still represents a great entry point for the longer-term investor.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们很难以如此便宜的价格看涨期权，而且面对不断上升的利率，Palantir 之前在 20 多岁的估值倍数肯定是不可持续的。但考虑到这家公司的快速增长轨迹，我认为约 18 美元的价格水平对于长期投资者来说仍然是一个很好的切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q3 results showcase tremendous fundamental traction, especially in the commercial segment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度业绩显示了巨大的基本面牵引力，尤其是在商业领域</b></blockquote></p><p> We additionally note that Palantir's end-of-year correction has been accompanied by a continuation of its strong fundamentals. Take a look at the Q3 earnings results below:</p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，Palantir 的年终调整伴随着其强劲基本面的延续。看看下面的第三季度盈利结果：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 3. Palantir Q3 results</p><p><blockquote>图3。Palantir第三季度业绩</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e606183fac49ce4616a25d86d7fac0cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"585\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's revenue grew at a robust 35% y/y pace to $392.1 million in the quarter, beating Wall Street's expectations of $386.6 million (+33% y/y) by a two-point margin. We note that revenue growth did decelerate versus 49% y/y growth in Q2, but that's largely due to an easier comp versus the pandemic period in Q2 of last year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 本季度收入同比强劲增长 35%，达到 3.921 亿美元，超出华尔街预期的 3.866 亿美元（同比增长 33%）两个百分点。我们注意到，与第二季度 49% 的同比增长率相比，收入增长确实有所放缓，但这主要是由于与去年第二季度的大流行时期相比，收入增长更容易。</blockquote></p><p> The major highlight in Q3 was Palantir's success in driving enterprise go-to-market. The company reported commercial revenue growth of 37% y/y in Q3 - which, despite tougher comps, represented substantial acceleration over the prior few quarters:</p><p><blockquote>第三季度的主要亮点是 Palantir 在推动企业上市方面的成功。该公司报告第三季度商业收入同比增长 37%，尽管竞争更加艰难，但比前几个季度大幅加速：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 4. Palantir commercial revenue trends</p><p><blockquote>图4。Palantir 商业收入趋势</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ad4016e482cb4fc94422618c18cd3a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We note as well that when counting U.S. commercial revenue only, Palantir grew domestic enterprise revenue at a blazing <b>103% y/y pace.</b></p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，仅计算美国商业收入时，Palantir 国内企业收入增长迅猛<b>同比增长 103%。</b></blockquote></p><p> Note as well that as of the moment, Palantir remains a relatively early-stage enterprise software vendor with relatively few, but large customers. Q3 saw the biggest customer expansion in Palantir's history. The company added 34 net-new customers in Q3 to end the quarter at 203 total customers, which is a significant 20% expansion in the company's customer base in the space of a single quarter. Year over year, the company also boosted its commercial customer counts by 46%.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，截至目前，Palantir仍然是一家相对早期的企业软件供应商，客户相对较少，但规模较大。第三季度见证了 Palantir 历史上最大的客户扩张。该公司第三季度净增客户 34 家，截至本季度末客户总数为 203 家，这意味着该公司客户群在单季度内显着扩大了 20%。该公司的商业客户数量也同比增长了 46%。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 5. Palantir customer adds</p><p><blockquote>图5。Palantir 客户添加</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c334545c0f1a8387eead268cc0ce5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Recall as well that for its enterprise customers, Palantir adopts a \"land and expand\" playbook that many SaaS companies adhere to. These customers may start off as smaller deployments that grow substantially over time.</p><p><blockquote>还要记住，对于其企业客户，Palantir采用了许多SaaS公司坚持的“土地和扩张”策略。这些客户可能从较小的部署开始，随着时间的推移会大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Equally worth noting is that Palantir's <b>billings</b> expanded 56% y/y to $347 million. The surplus of Palantir's billings growth rates over its revenue growth, plus the sharp buildup in its remaining performance obligations, give us confidence that the company will be able to make good on its promise of sustaining 30%+ revenue growth for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>同样值得注意的是，Palantir<b>比林斯</b>同比增长 56%，达到 3.47 亿美元。Palantir 的账单增长率超过其收入增长，加上其剩余履约义务的急剧增加，让我们相信该公司将能够兑现未来几年维持 30% 以上收入增长的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, a word on profitability. Palantir's customer growth, and at a positive contribution margin as well, has driven the company to dramatically boost its adjusted free cash flow. In Q3, adjusted FCF hit $119 million, or a ~30% adjusted FCF margin - versus cash <b>burn</b> of -$53 million in the prior-year period.</p><p><blockquote>最后，谈谈盈利能力。Palantir 的客户增长以及正贡献率促使该公司大幅增加调整后的自由现金流。第三季度，调整后自由现金流达到 1.19 亿美元，调整后自由现金流利润率约为 30% - 与现金相比<b>燃烧</b>上年同期为-5300万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 6. Palantir FCF trends</p><p><blockquote>图6。Palantir FCF 趋势</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca53d0292b7696376d644c0d6a85e707\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Building on the strength in cash flow that the company has seen all year, Palantir management also increased its annual FCF guidance for FY21 to $400+ million, versus a prior outlook of just $300+ million. These moves, in my view, solidify to investors in a very risk-off market mindset that Palantir isn't just growing robustly, but also keeping profitability balance in mind.</p><p><blockquote>在公司全年现金流强劲的基础上，Palantir 管理层还将 2021 财年的年度自由现金流指引提高至 4 亿多美元，而之前的预期仅为 3 亿多美元。在我看来，这些举措巩固了投资者对风险规避的市场心态，即 Palantir 不仅增长强劲，而且还保持了盈利平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要要点</b></blockquote></p><p> In my view, Palantir retains a very long runway for success. The company's undisputed category leadership in big data and analytics continues to prove out new use cases for both public and private-sector teams, and the fact that Palantir can continue to grow at >30% y/y despite hitting an expected ~$2 billion annual revenue run rate next year further solidifies that Palantir is a unique and rare story in the software sector. Take advantage of the ~30% correction since November to build up a well-timed position in this stock.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，Palantir 为成功保留了一条很长的跑道。该公司在大数据和分析领域无可争议的类别领先地位继续为公共和私营部门团队证明新的用例，事实上，尽管预计明年年收入将达到约 20 亿美元，但 Palantir 仍能继续以 30% 以上的速度增长明年，这进一步巩固了 Palantir 是软件领域一个独特而罕见的故事。利用 11 月以来约 30% 的回调，及时建仓该股。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Buy The Dip Before Year-End<blockquote>Palantir：年底前逢低买入</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Buy The Dip Before Year-End<blockquote>Palantir：年底前逢低买入</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-22 10:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Shares of Palantir have dropped 30% since the start of November, despite a fundamental business that continues to thrive.</li> <li>In particular, Palantir has been successful at diversifying away from government contracts, with overall commercial revenue growth accelerating in Q3 and more than doubling in the U.S.</li> <li>Still, the government business is not slacking, with the company winning recent contracts with the Air Force, Department of Health and Human Services, and National Institutes of Health.</li> <li>Cash flow is also trending ahead of plan, driving the company to boost its full-year cash flow guidance by $100 million.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d27ed9cd275848c088c2f7966c6a9b0c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Andreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>尽管基本面业务持续蓬勃发展，但 Palantir 的股价自 11 月初以来已下跌 30%。</li><li>特别是，Palantir 成功地实现了政府合同的多元化，第三季度整体商业收入增长加速，在美国增长了一倍多。</li><li>尽管如此，政府业务并没有懈怠，该公司最近赢得了与空军、卫生与公众服务部以及美国国立卫生研究院的合同。</li><li>现金流的趋势也超前于计划，推动该公司将全年现金流指引提高了 1 亿美元。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>安德烈亚斯·伦茨/盖蒂图片社娱乐</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The mantra of \"thinking and investing for the long term\" is a well-touted investment principle, yet rarely ever put into practice. It's also a rule that is most commonly broken in the tech sector, where investors choose their stocks primarily based on momentum and rarely based on fundamentals and value.</p><p><blockquote>“长期思考和投资”的口头禅是一个被吹捧的投资原则，但很少付诸实践。这也是科技行业最常被打破的规则，投资者主要根据势头选择股票，很少根据基本面和价值。</blockquote></p><p> So when the great growth correction of 2021 happened in the fourth quarter this year, while many stocks certainly deserved a small correction and a breather in valuations, many high-quality names got knocked down multiple pegs far more than their fundamentals justify. In this bucket is Palantir (PLTR), the big data analytics powerhouse which has seen a tremendous correction in its share price despite a business that has never looked healthier.</p><p><blockquote>因此，当 2021 年的大幅增长调整发生在今年第四季度时，虽然许多股票肯定应该得到小幅调整和估值喘息，但许多优质股票受到的多重挂钩打击远远超出了其基本面的合理范围。大数据分析巨头 Palantir (PLTR) 就是其中之一，尽管业务看起来从未如此健康，但其股价却出现了巨大调整。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps alone among high-profile software IPOs, Palantir has had a very rocky trading journey since going public last October. Palantir took a while to get off the ground, as investors worried early on that the lack of an insider lockup period would pressure Palantir's ability to rally. The stock did end up rallying and peaked near $40 in mid-February, before proceeding to trade in a very jagged and choppy fashion throughout the rest of the year, including a ~30% decline since November alongside other tech growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 可能是备受瞩目的软件 IPO 中唯一一家，自去年 10 月上市以来，它的交易历程非常坎坷。Palantir 花了一段时间才起步，因为投资者很早就担心缺乏内部锁定期会给 Palantir 的反弹能力带来压力。该股最终确实反弹，并在 2 月中旬达到 40 美元附近的峰值，然后在今年剩余时间里以非常锯齿状和波动的方式进行交易，包括自 11 月以来与其他科技股一起下跌了约 30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28dd4c60f2471cddc190b107c562cb57\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Throughout this tumultuous time period, I've happily held onto my Palantir stock, and this company is one of the rare exceptions where I'm <b>very bullish</b> on a stock that is technically trading at quite expensive valuation multiples (though, with the sharp correction from February peaks, Palantir isn't trading at the egregiously expensive multiples it was trading at earlier). I continue to view Palantir as a tech mega-cap in the making, one with a powerhouse software platform that is broadly applicable across industries, and across both the public and private sectors. Currently dominant primarily in the United States, Palantir also has broadly untested expansion opportunities abroad, where innovation in big data and machine learning technologies has not quite yet matured.</p><p><blockquote>在这段动荡的时期，我很高兴地持有我的 Palantir 股票，而这家公司是我持有的少数例外之一<b>非常看涨</b>从技术上讲，这只股票的交易估值倍数相当昂贵（不过，随着 2 月份峰值的大幅回调，Palantir 的交易倍数并没有像之前那样昂贵）。我仍然将 Palantir 视为一家正在形成的科技巨头，拥有广泛适用于各行各业、公共和私营部门的强大软件平台。Palantir目前主要在美国占据主导地位，在大数据和机器学习技术的创新尚未完全成熟的国外也有未经测试的扩张机会。</blockquote></p><p> Stay long here, and add to your positions in Palantir at its new lower price before year-end: in my view, Palantir is well-equipped to outperform the market indices for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>长期留在这里，并在年底前以新的较低价格增加您在 Palantir 的头寸：在我看来，Palantir 有能力在未来几年跑赢市场指数。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Recent wins showcase how prominent Palantir is</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最近的胜利展示了 Palantir 的突出地位</b></blockquote></p><p> Before we get into more granular details and fundamentals, it's worthwhile to illustrate that Palantir has been busy from a go-to-market perspective. The company is always on the heels of some large, transformational deal, and the current situation is no different. In particular, the company has just recently signed a multi-year $60 million deal with the National Institutes of Health:</p><p><blockquote>在我们深入探讨更详细的细节和基本面之前，值得说明的是，Palantir 从上市的角度一直很忙。该公司总是紧随一些大型转型交易之后，目前的情况也不例外。特别是，该公司最近刚刚与美国国立卫生研究院签署了一项价值 6000 万美元的多年期协议：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 1. Palantir NIH win</p><p><blockquote>图1。Palantir ni win</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db52b9f945c292c1b56f4d6b0a3ed00d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And, building off the strength that Palantir has historically enjoyed with the U.S. armed forces, the company also signed a four-year $87 million deal with the Department of Veterans Affairs:</p><p><blockquote>此外，凭借 Palantir 历来与美国武装部队的实力，该公司还与退伍军人事务部签署了一项为期四年、价值 8700 万美元的协议：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 2. Palantir VA win</p><p><blockquote>图2。帕兰蒂尔和温</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/905489ce382c58d0ea9896420a67ce9a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"301\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And though the large deals that Palantir showcase are typically public-sector deals, the company's commercial/enterprise sales have recently picked up steam as well, which we'll discuss in further detail in this article.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Palantir展示的大宗交易通常是公共部门交易，但该公司的商业/企业销售最近也有所上升，我们将在本文中进一步讨论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bullish thesis for Palantir, revisited</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir 的看涨论点，重新审视</b></blockquote></p><p> With the recent pessimism in Palantir stock over the past two months, it can be easy for investors to forget the longer-term bullish thesis and fundamental merits that this company possesses in abundance.</p><p><blockquote>由于过去两个月 Palantir 股票的悲观情绪，投资者很容易忘记该公司拥有的长期看涨论点和基本面优势。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here's a refresher of all the key reasons why this company is a superstar:</p><p><blockquote>以下是这家公司成为超级明星的所有关键原因：</blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li><b>Big data is a massive discipline that can be applied in nearly limitless ways.</b>Palantir isn't a software company that serves only one or a limited set of use cases. Data and inferences that can be made from data are prevalent in just about everything: which explains why Palantir is such a powerful tool for both public and private sector clients.</li> <li><b>Growth at scale.</b>Despite being at a ~$2 billion annual revenue scale, Palantir continues to deliver 30-40% y/y revenue growth, and its long-term outlook calls for the company to be able to sustain growth rates in excess of 30% y/y through at least 2025. Few companies are able to achieve this kind of growth at scale, and it's a testament to the wide applicability of Palantir's products and the humongous clientele it has drawn (in particular, the U.S. Army).</li> <li><b>Stepping up go-to-market momentum.</b>Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. The company has stepped up its sales hiring this year, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir also has deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir's products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir's direct sales force can't handle.</li> <li><b>One foot in the public sector, one foot in private</b>. Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Most software companies start off as primarily dealing with enterprise buyers, and then hopefully getting FedRAMP certification to sell into public sector clients later. Palantir did the reverse: but now, its momentum with Fortune 100 companies is continuing to grow, and customer adds are continuing to trend at an impressive pace.</li> <li><b>Free cash flow.</b>Though not yet profitable from a GAAP standpoint, Palantir continues to exceed internal expectations for free cash flow, which means the business is self-financing (a departure from. many other rapid-growth software companies that continue to need to raise capital to finance their losses).</li> </ul> <b>Valuation isn't cheap, but more reasonable than in the past</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>大数据是一门庞大的学科，可以以几乎无限的方式应用。</b>Palantir不是一家只服务于一个或有限一组用例的软件公司。数据和从数据中得出的推论几乎在所有事情中都很普遍：这解释了为什么Palantir对公共和私营部门客户来说都是如此强大的工具。</li><li><b>规模增长。</b>尽管年收入规模约为 20 亿美元，Palantir 仍继续实现 30-40% 的同比收入增长，其长期展望评级是该公司至少到 2025 年能够保持超过 30% 的同比增长率。很少有公司能够实现这种大规模增长，这证明了 Palantir 产品的广泛适用性及其吸引的庞大客户（特别是美国陆军）。</li><li><b>加大上市势头。</b>Palantir 正在通过各种渠道追求增长。该公司今年加大了销售招聘力度，这是对其拥有广阔市场机会以及对更多地区覆盖的需求的认可。Palantir还加深了与ISV（综合服务供应商）的关系，ISV可以在没有其参与的情况下转售Palantir的产品，并提供Palantir直销团队无法处理的额外覆盖范围。</li><li><b>一只脚在公共部门，一只脚在私营部门</b>. Palantir 因成为一家大型联邦政府承包商而声名鹊起，但其产品对越来越痴迷于大数据价值的企业部门来说同样具有吸引力。大多数软件公司一开始主要与企业买家打交道，然后希望获得FedRAMP认证，以便以后销售给公共部门客户。Palantir 的做法恰恰相反：但现在，它与财富 100 强公司的势头持续增长，客户增加继续以令人印象深刻的速度呈现。</li><li><b>自由现金流。</b>尽管从 GAAP 的角度来看尚未盈利，但 Palantir 继续超出自由现金流的内部预期，这意味着该业务是自筹资金的（与许多其他快速增长的软件公司不同，它们仍然需要筹集资金来弥补亏损）。</li></ul><b>估值不便宜，但比过去更合理</b></blockquote></p><p> I wouldn't go so far as to say that Palantir's recent correction has left the stock at cheap levels - but for the caliber of this company's brand, plus its consistent combination of hyper-growth at scale while building up profitability and margins, I view its current valuation as quite reasonable.</p><p><blockquote>我不会说 Palantir 最近的调整使该股处于廉价水平 - 但对于该公司的品牌规模，加上其在建立盈利能力和利润率的同时持续的规模高速增长，我认为它目前的估值相当合理。</blockquote></p><p> At current share prices near $18, Palantir trades at a market cap of $35.99 billion. After netting off the $2.48 billion cash pile on its books (another reason to be bullish on Palantir: it has a load of cash and is unencumbered by debt), its resulting <b>enterprise value is $33.51 billion.</b></p><p><blockquote>目前股价接近 18 美元，Palantir 的市值为 359.9 亿美元。在扣除账面上 24.8 亿美元的现金后（看好 Palantir 的另一个原因：它拥有大量现金，并且不受债务负担），其结果<b>企业价值为335.1亿美元。</b></blockquote></p><p> For next fiscal year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Palantir to deliver $1.98 billion in revenue, representing 30% y/y revenue growth (data from Yahoo Finance). Considering the company has committed to 30%+ annual revenue growth throughout 2022 (and this is a company that has routinely delivered well ahead of its promises), I'd say this outlook is a little dim. Yet regardless of that, at this revenue estimate Palantir trades at <b>16.9x EV/FY22 revenue.</b></p><p><blockquote>与此同时，华尔街分析师预计 Palantir 将实现 19.8 亿美元的收入，同比增长 30%（数据来自雅虎财经）。考虑到该公司承诺在 2022 年全年实现 30% 以上的年收入增长（而且这家公司经常远远超出其承诺），我认为这个前景有点黯淡。尽管如此，根据这一收入估计，Palantir 的交易价格为<b>16.9 倍 EV/2022 财年收入。</b></blockquote></p><p> Again, we can hardly call this cheap, and in the face of rising interest rates, certainly Palantir's prior valuation multiples in the high-20s were unsustainable. But given this company's rapid growth trajectory, I'd say the ~$18 price level still represents a great entry point for the longer-term investor.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们很难以如此便宜的价格看涨期权，而且面对不断上升的利率，Palantir 之前在 20 多岁的估值倍数肯定是不可持续的。但考虑到这家公司的快速增长轨迹，我认为约 18 美元的价格水平对于长期投资者来说仍然是一个很好的切入点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q3 results showcase tremendous fundamental traction, especially in the commercial segment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三季度业绩显示了巨大的基本面牵引力，尤其是在商业领域</b></blockquote></p><p> We additionally note that Palantir's end-of-year correction has been accompanied by a continuation of its strong fundamentals. Take a look at the Q3 earnings results below:</p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，Palantir 的年终调整伴随着其强劲基本面的延续。看看下面的第三季度盈利结果：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 3. Palantir Q3 results</p><p><blockquote>图3。Palantir第三季度业绩</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e606183fac49ce4616a25d86d7fac0cf\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"585\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir's revenue grew at a robust 35% y/y pace to $392.1 million in the quarter, beating Wall Street's expectations of $386.6 million (+33% y/y) by a two-point margin. We note that revenue growth did decelerate versus 49% y/y growth in Q2, but that's largely due to an easier comp versus the pandemic period in Q2 of last year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 本季度收入同比强劲增长 35%，达到 3.921 亿美元，超出华尔街预期的 3.866 亿美元（同比增长 33%）两个百分点。我们注意到，与第二季度 49% 的同比增长率相比，收入增长确实有所放缓，但这主要是由于与去年第二季度的大流行时期相比，收入增长更容易。</blockquote></p><p> The major highlight in Q3 was Palantir's success in driving enterprise go-to-market. The company reported commercial revenue growth of 37% y/y in Q3 - which, despite tougher comps, represented substantial acceleration over the prior few quarters:</p><p><blockquote>第三季度的主要亮点是 Palantir 在推动企业上市方面的成功。该公司报告第三季度商业收入同比增长 37%，尽管竞争更加艰难，但比前几个季度大幅加速：</blockquote></p><p> Figure 4. Palantir commercial revenue trends</p><p><blockquote>图4。Palantir 商业收入趋势</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ad4016e482cb4fc94422618c18cd3a0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"398\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> We note as well that when counting U.S. commercial revenue only, Palantir grew domestic enterprise revenue at a blazing <b>103% y/y pace.</b></p><p><blockquote>我们还注意到，仅计算美国商业收入时，Palantir 国内企业收入增长迅猛<b>同比增长 103%。</b></blockquote></p><p> Note as well that as of the moment, Palantir remains a relatively early-stage enterprise software vendor with relatively few, but large customers. Q3 saw the biggest customer expansion in Palantir's history. The company added 34 net-new customers in Q3 to end the quarter at 203 total customers, which is a significant 20% expansion in the company's customer base in the space of a single quarter. Year over year, the company also boosted its commercial customer counts by 46%.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，截至目前，Palantir仍然是一家相对早期的企业软件供应商，客户相对较少，但规模较大。第三季度见证了 Palantir 历史上最大的客户扩张。该公司第三季度净增客户 34 家，截至本季度末客户总数为 203 家，这意味着该公司客户群在单季度内显着扩大了 20%。该公司的商业客户数量也同比增长了 46%。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 5. Palantir customer adds</p><p><blockquote>图5。Palantir 客户添加</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c334545c0f1a8387eead268cc0ce5f1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"306\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Recall as well that for its enterprise customers, Palantir adopts a \"land and expand\" playbook that many SaaS companies adhere to. These customers may start off as smaller deployments that grow substantially over time.</p><p><blockquote>还要记住，对于其企业客户，Palantir采用了许多SaaS公司坚持的“土地和扩张”策略。这些客户可能从较小的部署开始，随着时间的推移会大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> Equally worth noting is that Palantir's <b>billings</b> expanded 56% y/y to $347 million. The surplus of Palantir's billings growth rates over its revenue growth, plus the sharp buildup in its remaining performance obligations, give us confidence that the company will be able to make good on its promise of sustaining 30%+ revenue growth for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>同样值得注意的是，Palantir<b>比林斯</b>同比增长 56%，达到 3.47 亿美元。Palantir 的账单增长率超过其收入增长，加上其剩余履约义务的急剧增加，让我们相信该公司将能够兑现未来几年维持 30% 以上收入增长的承诺。</blockquote></p><p> Lastly, a word on profitability. Palantir's customer growth, and at a positive contribution margin as well, has driven the company to dramatically boost its adjusted free cash flow. In Q3, adjusted FCF hit $119 million, or a ~30% adjusted FCF margin - versus cash <b>burn</b> of -$53 million in the prior-year period.</p><p><blockquote>最后，谈谈盈利能力。Palantir 的客户增长以及正贡献率促使该公司大幅增加调整后的自由现金流。第三季度，调整后自由现金流达到 1.19 亿美元，调整后自由现金流利润率约为 30% - 与现金相比<b>燃烧</b>上年同期为-5300万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Figure 6. Palantir FCF trends</p><p><blockquote>图6。Palantir FCF 趋势</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca53d0292b7696376d644c0d6a85e707\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"313\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Q3 earnings deck</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 第三季度收益表</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Building on the strength in cash flow that the company has seen all year, Palantir management also increased its annual FCF guidance for FY21 to $400+ million, versus a prior outlook of just $300+ million. These moves, in my view, solidify to investors in a very risk-off market mindset that Palantir isn't just growing robustly, but also keeping profitability balance in mind.</p><p><blockquote>在公司全年现金流强劲的基础上，Palantir 管理层还将 2021 财年的年度自由现金流指引提高至 4 亿多美元，而之前的预期仅为 3 亿多美元。在我看来，这些举措巩固了投资者对风险规避的市场心态，即 Palantir 不仅增长强劲，而且还保持了盈利平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Key takeaways</b></p><p><blockquote><b>主要要点</b></blockquote></p><p> In my view, Palantir retains a very long runway for success. The company's undisputed category leadership in big data and analytics continues to prove out new use cases for both public and private-sector teams, and the fact that Palantir can continue to grow at >30% y/y despite hitting an expected ~$2 billion annual revenue run rate next year further solidifies that Palantir is a unique and rare story in the software sector. Take advantage of the ~30% correction since November to build up a well-timed position in this stock.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，Palantir 为成功保留了一条很长的跑道。该公司在大数据和分析领域无可争议的类别领先地位继续为公共和私营部门团队证明新的用例，事实上，尽管预计明年年收入将达到约 20 亿美元，但 Palantir 仍能继续以 30% 以上的速度增长明年，这进一步巩固了 Palantir 是软件领域一个独特而罕见的故事。利用 11 月以来约 30% 的回调，及时建仓该股。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476170-palantir-stock-buy-the-dip-before-year-end\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476170-palantir-stock-buy-the-dip-before-year-end","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184116002","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Palantir have dropped 30% since the start of November, despite a fundamental business that continues to thrive.\nIn particular, Palantir has been successful at diversifying away from government contracts, with overall commercial revenue growth accelerating in Q3 and more than doubling in the U.S.\nStill, the government business is not slacking, with the company winning recent contracts with the Air Force, Department of Health and Human Services, and National Institutes of Health.\nCash flow is also trending ahead of plan, driving the company to boost its full-year cash flow guidance by $100 million.\n\nAndreas Rentz/Getty Images Entertainment\nThe mantra of \"thinking and investing for the long term\" is a well-touted investment principle, yet rarely ever put into practice. It's also a rule that is most commonly broken in the tech sector, where investors choose their stocks primarily based on momentum and rarely based on fundamentals and value.\nSo when the great growth correction of 2021 happened in the fourth quarter this year, while many stocks certainly deserved a small correction and a breather in valuations, many high-quality names got knocked down multiple pegs far more than their fundamentals justify. In this bucket is Palantir (PLTR), the big data analytics powerhouse which has seen a tremendous correction in its share price despite a business that has never looked healthier.\nPerhaps alone among high-profile software IPOs, Palantir has had a very rocky trading journey since going public last October. Palantir took a while to get off the ground, as investors worried early on that the lack of an insider lockup period would pressure Palantir's ability to rally. The stock did end up rallying and peaked near $40 in mid-February, before proceeding to trade in a very jagged and choppy fashion throughout the rest of the year, including a ~30% decline since November alongside other tech growth stocks.\nData by YCharts\nThroughout this tumultuous time period, I've happily held onto my Palantir stock, and this company is one of the rare exceptions where I'm very bullish on a stock that is technically trading at quite expensive valuation multiples (though, with the sharp correction from February peaks, Palantir isn't trading at the egregiously expensive multiples it was trading at earlier). I continue to view Palantir as a tech mega-cap in the making, one with a powerhouse software platform that is broadly applicable across industries, and across both the public and private sectors. Currently dominant primarily in the United States, Palantir also has broadly untested expansion opportunities abroad, where innovation in big data and machine learning technologies has not quite yet matured.\nStay long here, and add to your positions in Palantir at its new lower price before year-end: in my view, Palantir is well-equipped to outperform the market indices for years to come.\nRecent wins showcase how prominent Palantir is\nBefore we get into more granular details and fundamentals, it's worthwhile to illustrate that Palantir has been busy from a go-to-market perspective. The company is always on the heels of some large, transformational deal, and the current situation is no different. In particular, the company has just recently signed a multi-year $60 million deal with the National Institutes of Health:\nFigure 1. Palantir NIH win\nSource: Palantir Q3 earnings deck\nAnd, building off the strength that Palantir has historically enjoyed with the U.S. armed forces, the company also signed a four-year $87 million deal with the Department of Veterans Affairs:\nFigure 2. Palantir VA win\nSource: Palantir Q3 earnings deck\nAnd though the large deals that Palantir showcase are typically public-sector deals, the company's commercial/enterprise sales have recently picked up steam as well, which we'll discuss in further detail in this article.\nThe bullish thesis for Palantir, revisited\nWith the recent pessimism in Palantir stock over the past two months, it can be easy for investors to forget the longer-term bullish thesis and fundamental merits that this company possesses in abundance.\nHere's a refresher of all the key reasons why this company is a superstar:\n\nBig data is a massive discipline that can be applied in nearly limitless ways.Palantir isn't a software company that serves only one or a limited set of use cases. Data and inferences that can be made from data are prevalent in just about everything: which explains why Palantir is such a powerful tool for both public and private sector clients.\nGrowth at scale.Despite being at a ~$2 billion annual revenue scale, Palantir continues to deliver 30-40% y/y revenue growth, and its long-term outlook calls for the company to be able to sustain growth rates in excess of 30% y/y through at least 2025. Few companies are able to achieve this kind of growth at scale, and it's a testament to the wide applicability of Palantir's products and the humongous clientele it has drawn (in particular, the U.S. Army).\nStepping up go-to-market momentum.Palantir is chasing growth across a wide variety of channels. The company has stepped up its sales hiring this year, a nod at the broad market opportunity it has and the need for more territory coverage. Palantir also has deepened relationships with ISVs (integrated service vendors) that can resell Palantir's products without its involvement and offer additional coverage that Palantir's direct sales force can't handle.\nOne foot in the public sector, one foot in private. Palantir made its name on being a large federal government contractor, but its products are just as compelling to an enterprise segment that is growing ever more obsessed with the value of big data. Most software companies start off as primarily dealing with enterprise buyers, and then hopefully getting FedRAMP certification to sell into public sector clients later. Palantir did the reverse: but now, its momentum with Fortune 100 companies is continuing to grow, and customer adds are continuing to trend at an impressive pace.\nFree cash flow.Though not yet profitable from a GAAP standpoint, Palantir continues to exceed internal expectations for free cash flow, which means the business is self-financing (a departure from. many other rapid-growth software companies that continue to need to raise capital to finance their losses).\n\nValuation isn't cheap, but more reasonable than in the past\nI wouldn't go so far as to say that Palantir's recent correction has left the stock at cheap levels - but for the caliber of this company's brand, plus its consistent combination of hyper-growth at scale while building up profitability and margins, I view its current valuation as quite reasonable.\nAt current share prices near $18, Palantir trades at a market cap of $35.99 billion. After netting off the $2.48 billion cash pile on its books (another reason to be bullish on Palantir: it has a load of cash and is unencumbered by debt), its resulting enterprise value is $33.51 billion.\nFor next fiscal year FY22, meanwhile, Wall Street analysts are expecting Palantir to deliver $1.98 billion in revenue, representing 30% y/y revenue growth (data from Yahoo Finance). Considering the company has committed to 30%+ annual revenue growth throughout 2022 (and this is a company that has routinely delivered well ahead of its promises), I'd say this outlook is a little dim. Yet regardless of that, at this revenue estimate Palantir trades at 16.9x EV/FY22 revenue.\nAgain, we can hardly call this cheap, and in the face of rising interest rates, certainly Palantir's prior valuation multiples in the high-20s were unsustainable. But given this company's rapid growth trajectory, I'd say the ~$18 price level still represents a great entry point for the longer-term investor.\nQ3 results showcase tremendous fundamental traction, especially in the commercial segment\nWe additionally note that Palantir's end-of-year correction has been accompanied by a continuation of its strong fundamentals. Take a look at the Q3 earnings results below:\nFigure 3. Palantir Q3 results\nSource: Palantir Q3 earnings deck\nPalantir's revenue grew at a robust 35% y/y pace to $392.1 million in the quarter, beating Wall Street's expectations of $386.6 million (+33% y/y) by a two-point margin. We note that revenue growth did decelerate versus 49% y/y growth in Q2, but that's largely due to an easier comp versus the pandemic period in Q2 of last year.\nThe major highlight in Q3 was Palantir's success in driving enterprise go-to-market. The company reported commercial revenue growth of 37% y/y in Q3 - which, despite tougher comps, represented substantial acceleration over the prior few quarters:\nFigure 4. Palantir commercial revenue trends\nSource: Palantir Q3 earnings deck\nWe note as well that when counting U.S. commercial revenue only, Palantir grew domestic enterprise revenue at a blazing 103% y/y pace.\nNote as well that as of the moment, Palantir remains a relatively early-stage enterprise software vendor with relatively few, but large customers. Q3 saw the biggest customer expansion in Palantir's history. The company added 34 net-new customers in Q3 to end the quarter at 203 total customers, which is a significant 20% expansion in the company's customer base in the space of a single quarter. Year over year, the company also boosted its commercial customer counts by 46%.\nFigure 5. Palantir customer adds\nSource: Palantir Q3 earnings deck\nRecall as well that for its enterprise customers, Palantir adopts a \"land and expand\" playbook that many SaaS companies adhere to. These customers may start off as smaller deployments that grow substantially over time.\nEqually worth noting is that Palantir's billings expanded 56% y/y to $347 million. The surplus of Palantir's billings growth rates over its revenue growth, plus the sharp buildup in its remaining performance obligations, give us confidence that the company will be able to make good on its promise of sustaining 30%+ revenue growth for years to come.\nLastly, a word on profitability. Palantir's customer growth, and at a positive contribution margin as well, has driven the company to dramatically boost its adjusted free cash flow. In Q3, adjusted FCF hit $119 million, or a ~30% adjusted FCF margin - versus cash burn of -$53 million in the prior-year period.\nFigure 6. Palantir FCF trends\nSource: Palantir Q3 earnings deck\nBuilding on the strength in cash flow that the company has seen all year, Palantir management also increased its annual FCF guidance for FY21 to $400+ million, versus a prior outlook of just $300+ million. These moves, in my view, solidify to investors in a very risk-off market mindset that Palantir isn't just growing robustly, but also keeping profitability balance in mind.\nKey takeaways\nIn my view, Palantir retains a very long runway for success. The company's undisputed category leadership in big data and analytics continues to prove out new use cases for both public and private-sector teams, and the fact that Palantir can continue to grow at >30% y/y despite hitting an expected ~$2 billion annual revenue run rate next year further solidifies that Palantir is a unique and rare story in the software sector. Take advantage of the ~30% correction since November to build up a well-timed position in this stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698163733,"gmtCreate":1640319446722,"gmtModify":1640319813985,"author":{"id":"4096118739780230","authorId":"4096118739780230","name":"simi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096118739780230","authorIdStr":"4096118739780230"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh! should we buy this stock?","listText":"Oh! should we buy this stock?","text":"Oh! should we buy this stock?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698163733","repostId":"2193211571","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3682,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693721904,"gmtCreate":1640084423114,"gmtModify":1640084423216,"author":{"id":"4096118739780230","authorId":"4096118739780230","name":"simi","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4096118739780230","authorIdStr":"4096118739780230"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy for long term 🚀🚀","listText":"Buy for long term 🚀🚀","text":"Buy for long term 🚀🚀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693721904","repostId":"1117226796","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1117226796","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640057164,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117226796?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 11:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的 3 个理由以及为什么它仍然值得购买</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117226796","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.</li> <li>PLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.</li> <li>Despite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7230cdd890b86f9941b99b1503d04049\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>spxChrome/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir Technologies 是一只战场股票。对于多头来说，听取空头的论点是个好主意。</li><li>PLTR稀释了其股东，但这不一定是一个大问题。</li><li>尽管存在一些利率阻力，但由于强大的护城河和良好的增长前景，PLTR 对我来说似乎是一项不错的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>spxChrome/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies (PLTR) 是一只陷入困境的成长型股票，最近几周，随着股价持续下跌，空头一直在获胜。确实有一些重要的看跌论点，例如稀释、对政府合同的依赖以及利率上升。然而，我仍然相信 Palantir Technologies 是一项有吸引力的长期投资，因为其技术可能会在未来许多年内带来巨大的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3 Issues Brought Up By Bears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头提出的3个问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 是一只成长型股票，既有高度确信的多头，也有高度确信的空头。总的来说，我在这里是看涨的阵营，但看看空头的论点也是一个好主意。反对Palantir的三个最常见的论点如下：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Shareholder Dilution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.股东摊薄</b></blockquote></p><p> Growth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:</p><p><blockquote>全公司范围的增长很重要，但每股增长更重要。有许多例子表明，公司股票数量的变化可以创造或摧毁很多股东价值。例如，苹果 (AAPL) 的净利润在过去十年中增长了约 190%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5263c8346cfbbb898f1d1ac9a5bead\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于股票数量减少，其每股收益增长了 350%，更具吸引力，但回购创造了大量股东价值。也有一些例子表明，股票数量的增加摧毁了很多股东的价值，例如花旗集团 (C)：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc39008812f5e2d0082dedc95b025c68\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Massive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:</p><p><blockquote>大衰退期间的大规模股票发行导致自 2007 年以来每股收益下降了 75%，尽管同期净利润有所增长。因此，查看公司股票数量的变化是有意义的，因为这些变化从长远来看会产生很大的影响。在 Palantir，我们看到自公司上市以来，股票数量一直在大幅增加。在最近一个季度，Palantir 的股票数量如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917ca4d7a390ced61d7c92d528f84fc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Press Release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 新闻稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Compared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was 1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.</p><p><blockquote>与第二季度相比，Palantir 的平均股数为 18.95 亿股，季度增长 3.5%，年增长率约为十几岁左右。当然，这一点根本不容忽视，当他们声称股东正在以有意义的速度被稀释时，值得争论。另一方面，Palantir 的业务增长率远高于每季度 3%，因为该公司预计今年的收入增长约为 40%，而且 Palantir 在未来几年也应该实现巨大的业务增长。即使Palantir的股票数量未来每年增长10%-15%，由于PLTR的快速增长，每股收入仍将每年增长25%以上。我还相信，随着时间的推移，稀释程度将会下降。不仅亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOG）或Meta（FB）等许多其他成长型公司都是如此，而且从期权奖励的角度来看，这也是合乎逻辑的。当一家公司尚未公开交易且其未来仍然更加不确定时，期权奖励尤其丰厚，但随着公司的成熟，随着公司风险的降低，员工会更加放心，他们不再需要大量的期权包。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，Palantir 还产生了强劲的自由现金流，这将使公司能够在未来进行股票回购，这也将有助于提高稀释率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Reliance on government contracts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 依赖政府合同</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a recent bearish article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:</p><p><blockquote>在最近一篇悲观的文章中，Seeking Alpha 撰稿人 On The Pulse 认为 Palantir 被高估了，其对政府合同的依赖是一个问题。事实上，Palantir Technologies 如今在很大程度上依赖政府合同，但我不认为这是一个主要问题。首先，由于其商业业务的大规模增长，Palantir 最近已经摆脱了政府合同的多元化：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de23409915ee3811691b986a42ece899\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Technologies presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 技术演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Palantir 的商业业务近年来的增长速度远远快于其政府业务，这表明来自各行各业的商业客户显然都看到了 Palantir 技术的巨大价值——否则，他们就不会快速购买。和</blockquote></p><p> With the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.</p><p><blockquote>随着商业业务增长率超过政府业务增长率，多年来，Palantir将成为一家越来越少依赖政府合同的公司，并最终转变为一家专注于B2B的软件/技术公司。即使 Palantir 永远是一家以政府为中心的公司（根据各个业务部门目前的增长率，这似乎不太可能），但这不一定是一个问题。为政府工作意味着交易对手风险很小，现有的关系可以很容易地用来获得未来的合同。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，随着政府预算相对稳步增长，良好的政府关系带来了相当大的增长机会——特别是在Palantir活跃的国防技术/安全技术领域，因为该领域有巨大的进一步投资需求。</blockquote></p><p> The claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actually<i>declined</i>year-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，政府关注导致缺乏可扩展性的说法也是错误的。根据 Palantir 最新的季度报告（上文链接），其运营费用在 2020 年第三季度至 2021 年第三季度期间增加了 900 万美元，而同期收入增加了 1.03 亿美元。这支持了基于股份的薪酬的变化。如果包括这些 SBC 费用，Palantir 的费用实际上<i>拒绝</i>同比增长，而该公司的收入增长了近 40%。因此，我认为，Palantir 多年来不会产生任何规模优势的说法似乎是没有根据的。相反，数据表明 Palantir 将能够大幅提高利润率——该公司调整后毛利润大幅增长 9000 万美元，而调整后运营费用仅增长 900 万美元——从而实现了出色的运营杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Exposure to rising rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 面临利率上升的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Massive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.</p><p><blockquote>大规模通胀将迫使美联储在 2022 年及以后加息，这可能是成长型股票的一个问题。与增长缓慢或没有增长但在短期内产生大量未来利润的公司相比，今天不盈利或绝大多数利润的公司更容易受到贴现率上升的影响。我相信，这可能会导致未来几年价值股的表现优于成长型股。Palantir 尚未盈利，自然属于“增长”类别，利率上升可能会产生高于平均水平的影响。我相信，这里没有真正的反驳论点——在其他条件相同的情况下，与艾伯维 (ABBV) 等价值股相比，利率上升对 Palantir 的影响确实会更大。</blockquote></p><p> This being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这对 Palantir 来说是一个渐进的负面影响，并不意味着在任何情况下都必须避免购买股票。事实上，尽管利率上升可能带来一些潜在的不利因素，但如果其他论点具有更大的分量，Palantir 仍然可能是一项有吸引力的投资——我相信这是真的，因为我看到 PLTR 的巨大增长潜力和巨大护城河超过了利率上升带来的一些近期不利因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Palantir Is Still Attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么 Palantir 仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.</p><p><blockquote>空头提出了一系列反对 Palantir 的论点，如上所述，这些论点可能有道理。我相信它们在某些情况下可能被夸大了，但看看熊的论点不会有什么坏处——事实上，为了做出更明智的决定，看看双方似乎是个好主意。稀释确实是一个问题，尽管我不认为这会是一个太大的阻力，因为 PLTR 的业务增长很容易超过稀释，而且总体而言，稀释应该会在未来几年放缓。由于高于平均水平的商业业务增长率，对政府的依赖将随着时间的推移而减弱，总的来说，与政府做生意无论如何都不是一件坏事。从我在PLTR的数据中看到的情况来看，PLTR缺乏可扩展性的说法似乎是错误的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased Foundry for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些争论，我相信 Palantir 仍然很有吸引力：该公司发展迅速，在政府业务和商业方面都具有数十年的增长潜力，而且 Palantir 似乎拥有非常宽阔的护城河。这种合并最终可能会使 Palantir 成为最大、最重要的公司之一——尽管投资者不应指望这种情况在短期内发生。相反，我相信，随着我们的世界变得越来越渴望数据，Palantir 很有可能在 2020 年代及以后以相当大的速度增长——政府和企业都将试图从所有这些数据中获得最大价值，而 Palantir 凭借其量身定制的解决方案将为客户提供这种价值。凭借最近展示的 Foundry for crypto 等新工具，Palantir 处于各种新兴技术的前沿。由于 Palantir 可以接触到顶尖人才——这是 SBC 和出色工作环境的结果——我相信 Palantir 很有可能能够在大数据/人工智能领域的各种未来市场中具有高度竞争力，而这些市场甚至可能还不存在。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我不是一个成长型投资者——相反，我主要关注价格有吸引力、现金流强劲的股票，通常是那些支付股息的股票。然而，Palantir 在我的投资组合中有些异类——它是一只成长型股票，尚未真正盈利，而且其大部分潜力还需要数年时间。由于巨大的市场机会、优秀的人才和宽阔的护城河的极具吸引力的结合，Palantir 对我来说仍然是一项有吸引力的长期投资。这不是一只能让投资者快速致富的股票，但我相信 Palantir 很有可能在未来 10 多年内成为一家非常占主导地位的重要公司。明年收入的 19 倍，PLTR 并不便宜，但当我们预计该公司将在未来许多年内以强劲的速度增长时，这对我来说也一点也不奇怪。听听空头的论点是有道理的，但我相信这里利大于弊。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的 3 个理由以及为什么它仍然值得购买</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的 3 个理由以及为什么它仍然值得购买</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-21 11:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul> <li>Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.</li> <li>PLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.</li> <li>Despite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7230cdd890b86f9941b99b1503d04049\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>spxChrome/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir Technologies 是一只战场股票。对于多头来说，听取空头的论点是个好主意。</li><li>PLTR稀释了其股东，但这不一定是一个大问题。</li><li>尽管存在一些利率阻力，但由于强大的护城河和良好的增长前景，PLTR 对我来说似乎是一项不错的投资。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>spxChrome/E+ 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies (PLTR) 是一只陷入困境的成长型股票，最近几周，随着股价持续下跌，空头一直在获胜。确实有一些重要的看跌论点，例如稀释、对政府合同的依赖以及利率上升。然而，我仍然相信 Palantir Technologies 是一项有吸引力的长期投资，因为其技术可能会在未来许多年内带来巨大的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3 Issues Brought Up By Bears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头提出的3个问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir 是一只成长型股票，既有高度确信的多头，也有高度确信的空头。总的来说，我在这里是看涨的阵营，但看看空头的论点也是一个好主意。反对Palantir的三个最常见的论点如下：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Shareholder Dilution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.股东摊薄</b></blockquote></p><p> Growth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:</p><p><blockquote>全公司范围的增长很重要，但每股增长更重要。有许多例子表明，公司股票数量的变化可以创造或摧毁很多股东价值。例如，苹果 (AAPL) 的净利润在过去十年中增长了约 190%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5263c8346cfbbb898f1d1ac9a5bead\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于股票数量减少，其每股收益增长了 350%，更具吸引力，但回购创造了大量股东价值。也有一些例子表明，股票数量的增加摧毁了很多股东的价值，例如花旗集团 (C)：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc39008812f5e2d0082dedc95b025c68\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Massive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:</p><p><blockquote>大衰退期间的大规模股票发行导致自 2007 年以来每股收益下降了 75%，尽管同期净利润有所增长。因此，查看公司股票数量的变化是有意义的，因为这些变化从长远来看会产生很大的影响。在 Palantir，我们看到自公司上市以来，股票数量一直在大幅增加。在最近一个季度，Palantir 的股票数量如下：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917ca4d7a390ced61d7c92d528f84fc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Press Release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 新闻稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Compared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was 1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.</p><p><blockquote>与第二季度相比，Palantir 的平均股数为 18.95 亿股，季度增长 3.5%，年增长率约为十几岁左右。当然，这一点根本不容忽视，当他们声称股东正在以有意义的速度被稀释时，值得争论。另一方面，Palantir 的业务增长率远高于每季度 3%，因为该公司预计今年的收入增长约为 40%，而且 Palantir 在未来几年也应该实现巨大的业务增长。即使Palantir的股票数量未来每年增长10%-15%，由于PLTR的快速增长，每股收入仍将每年增长25%以上。我还相信，随着时间的推移，稀释程度将会下降。不仅亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOG）或Meta（FB）等许多其他成长型公司都是如此，而且从期权奖励的角度来看，这也是合乎逻辑的。当一家公司尚未公开交易且其未来仍然更加不确定时，期权奖励尤其丰厚，但随着公司的成熟，随着公司风险的降低，员工会更加放心，他们不再需要大量的期权包。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，Palantir 还产生了强劲的自由现金流，这将使公司能够在未来进行股票回购，这也将有助于提高稀释率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Reliance on government contracts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 依赖政府合同</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a recent bearish article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:</p><p><blockquote>在最近一篇悲观的文章中，Seeking Alpha 撰稿人 On The Pulse 认为 Palantir 被高估了，其对政府合同的依赖是一个问题。事实上，Palantir Technologies 如今在很大程度上依赖政府合同，但我不认为这是一个主要问题。首先，由于其商业业务的大规模增长，Palantir 最近已经摆脱了政府合同的多元化：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de23409915ee3811691b986a42ece899\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Technologies presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 技术演示文稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Palantir 的商业业务近年来的增长速度远远快于其政府业务，这表明来自各行各业的商业客户显然都看到了 Palantir 技术的巨大价值——否则，他们就不会快速购买。和</blockquote></p><p> With the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.</p><p><blockquote>随着商业业务增长率超过政府业务增长率，多年来，Palantir将成为一家越来越少依赖政府合同的公司，并最终转变为一家专注于B2B的软件/技术公司。即使 Palantir 永远是一家以政府为中心的公司（根据各个业务部门目前的增长率，这似乎不太可能），但这不一定是一个问题。为政府工作意味着交易对手风险很小，现有的关系可以很容易地用来获得未来的合同。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，随着政府预算相对稳步增长，良好的政府关系带来了相当大的增长机会——特别是在Palantir活跃的国防技术/安全技术领域，因为该领域有巨大的进一步投资需求。</blockquote></p><p> The claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actually<i>declined</i>year-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，政府关注导致缺乏可扩展性的说法也是错误的。根据 Palantir 最新的季度报告（上文链接），其运营费用在 2020 年第三季度至 2021 年第三季度期间增加了 900 万美元，而同期收入增加了 1.03 亿美元。这支持了基于股份的薪酬的变化。如果包括这些 SBC 费用，Palantir 的费用实际上<i>拒绝</i>同比增长，而该公司的收入增长了近 40%。因此，我认为，Palantir 多年来不会产生任何规模优势的说法似乎是没有根据的。相反，数据表明 Palantir 将能够大幅提高利润率——该公司调整后毛利润大幅增长 9000 万美元，而调整后运营费用仅增长 900 万美元——从而实现了出色的运营杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Exposure to rising rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 面临利率上升的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Massive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.</p><p><blockquote>大规模通胀将迫使美联储在 2022 年及以后加息，这可能是成长型股票的一个问题。与增长缓慢或没有增长但在短期内产生大量未来利润的公司相比，今天不盈利或绝大多数利润的公司更容易受到贴现率上升的影响。我相信，这可能会导致未来几年价值股的表现优于成长型股。Palantir 尚未盈利，自然属于“增长”类别，利率上升可能会产生高于平均水平的影响。我相信，这里没有真正的反驳论点——在其他条件相同的情况下，与艾伯维 (ABBV) 等价值股相比，利率上升对 Palantir 的影响确实会更大。</blockquote></p><p> This being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这对 Palantir 来说是一个渐进的负面影响，并不意味着在任何情况下都必须避免购买股票。事实上，尽管利率上升可能带来一些潜在的不利因素，但如果其他论点具有更大的分量，Palantir 仍然可能是一项有吸引力的投资——我相信这是真的，因为我看到 PLTR 的巨大增长潜力和巨大护城河超过了利率上升带来的一些近期不利因素。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Palantir Is Still Attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么 Palantir 仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.</p><p><blockquote>空头提出了一系列反对 Palantir 的论点，如上所述，这些论点可能有道理。我相信它们在某些情况下可能被夸大了，但看看熊的论点不会有什么坏处——事实上，为了做出更明智的决定，看看双方似乎是个好主意。稀释确实是一个问题，尽管我不认为这会是一个太大的阻力，因为 PLTR 的业务增长很容易超过稀释，而且总体而言，稀释应该会在未来几年放缓。由于高于平均水平的商业业务增长率，对政府的依赖将随着时间的推移而减弱，总的来说，与政府做生意无论如何都不是一件坏事。从我在PLTR的数据中看到的情况来看，PLTR缺乏可扩展性的说法似乎是错误的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased Foundry for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些争论，我相信 Palantir 仍然很有吸引力：该公司发展迅速，在政府业务和商业方面都具有数十年的增长潜力，而且 Palantir 似乎拥有非常宽阔的护城河。这种合并最终可能会使 Palantir 成为最大、最重要的公司之一——尽管投资者不应指望这种情况在短期内发生。相反，我相信，随着我们的世界变得越来越渴望数据，Palantir 很有可能在 2020 年代及以后以相当大的速度增长——政府和企业都将试图从所有这些数据中获得最大价值，而 Palantir 凭借其量身定制的解决方案将为客户提供这种价值。凭借最近展示的 Foundry for crypto 等新工具，Palantir 处于各种新兴技术的前沿。由于 Palantir 可以接触到顶尖人才——这是 SBC 和出色工作环境的结果——我相信 Palantir 很有可能能够在大数据/人工智能领域的各种未来市场中具有高度竞争力，而这些市场甚至可能还不存在。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我不是一个成长型投资者——相反，我主要关注价格有吸引力、现金流强劲的股票，通常是那些支付股息的股票。然而，Palantir 在我的投资组合中有些异类——它是一只成长型股票，尚未真正盈利，而且其大部分潜力还需要数年时间。由于巨大的市场机会、优秀的人才和宽阔的护城河的极具吸引力的结合，Palantir 对我来说仍然是一项有吸引力的长期投资。这不是一只能让投资者快速致富的股票，但我相信 Palantir 很有可能在未来 10 多年内成为一家非常占主导地位的重要公司。明年收入的 19 倍，PLTR 并不便宜，但当我们预计该公司将在未来许多年内以强劲的速度增长时，这对我来说也一点也不奇怪。听听空头的论点是有道理的，但我相信这里利大于弊。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475960-palantir-3-reasons-against-it-and-why-its-still-a-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475960-palantir-3-reasons-against-it-and-why-its-still-a-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117226796","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.\nPLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.\nDespite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.\n\nspxChrome/E+ via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nPalantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.\n3 Issues Brought Up By Bears\nPalantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:\n1. Shareholder Dilution\nGrowth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:\nData by YCharts\nThanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):\nData by YCharts\nMassive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:\nSource: Palantir Press Release\nCompared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was 1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.\n2. Reliance on government contracts\nIn a recent bearish article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:\nSource: Palantir Technologies presentation\nIn fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With\nWith the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.\nThe claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actuallydeclinedyear-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.\n3. Exposure to rising rates\nMassive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.\nThis being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.\nWhy Palantir Is Still Attractive\nBears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.\nPalantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased Foundry for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.\nTakeaway\nIn general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
