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2021-11-29

This is the best buying opportunity

Here's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀可能对周一股市交易意味着什么</blockquote>

2021-11-27

Best time to buy.

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2021-11-25

Time to add for long term hold

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2021-11-25

Ok

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2021-11-18

Inflation is eroding the value of USD. The only hedge against that is BTC

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2021-11-16

To the moon

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2021-11-12

Buy btc

Inflation Hits a 30-Year High. Will It Sink Biden’s Agenda?<blockquote>通货膨胀率创30年来新高。这会破坏拜登的议程吗？</blockquote>

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is the best buying opportunity&nbsp;","listText":"This is the best buying opportunity&nbsp;","text":"This is the best buying opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600492433","repostId":"2187329491","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2187329491","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1638140520,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2187329491?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-29 07:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀可能对周一股市交易意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2187329491","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.What isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do","content":"<p>OMG, omicron!</p><p><blockquote>天哪，奥密克戎!</blockquote></p><p> The new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>世界卫生组织宣布的新型、快速传播的 B.1.1.529 冠状病毒株为令人担忧的变种，在黑色星期五扰乱了全球市场，引发了人们对未来一周经济和华尔街表现的担忧，此前抛售抹去了标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数 11 月份的涨幅，并导致道琼斯工业平均指数创下 2020 年 10 月 28 日以来的最大单日跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> WHO said that the omicron variant, which has been detected in Belgium, Israel, and Hong Kong and was first identified in southern parts of Africa, is more transmissible than the delta strain that is currently dominant world-wide, and other variants.</p><p><blockquote>世卫组织表示，已在比利时、以色列和中国香港发现并首次在非洲南部发现的奥密克戎变种比目前在全球占主导地位的德尔塔毒株和其他变种更具传染性。</blockquote></p><p> The emergence of the new strain led to the White House announcing restrictions, starting on Monday, on travel for non-U.S. citizens and residents from South Africa, as well as from Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi, joining the European Union, the U.K., Singapore and Japan, which also announced similar travel bans.</p><p><blockquote>新毒株的出现导致白宫宣布从周一开始限制来自南非以及博茨瓦纳、津巴布韦、纳米比亚、莱索托、斯威士兰、莫桑比克和马拉维的非美国公民和居民的旅行，加入了欧盟、英国、新加坡和日本的行列，这些国家也宣布了类似的旅行禁令。</blockquote></p><p> The market selloff during the abbreviated Black Friday session and the commensurate flight to assets that investors hope will perform better amid fresh mobility restrictions, helped to overshadow the usual focus on retail, on a day associated with heavy consumer spending ahead of the Christmas holiday. Friday's downturn also offered a crystal clear reminder that the path of the market and economy hinges on the course of COVID.</p><p><blockquote>黑色星期五缩短交易时段期间的市场抛售，以及投资者希望在新的流动性限制下表现更好的资产的相应撤离，帮助掩盖了人们通常对零售业的关注，而这一天与圣诞节假期前消费者支出大量相关。周五的低迷也清楚地提醒人们，市场和经济的道路取决于新冠疫情的进程。</blockquote></p><p> What isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do lasting harm to the complexion of the market. Omicron comes at a fragile time for optimistic investors, with bears pointing to lofty stock market valuations, inflation worries and global economic growth concerns as reasons to expect a drawdown in equities that have managed to avoid a decline from a peak of more than 5%.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚的是，最新的冠状病毒发展是否会对市场造成持久损害。对于乐观的投资者来说，奥密克戎正值脆弱时期，空头指出，股市估值过高、通胀担忧和全球经济增长担忧是预期成功避免从 5% 以上峰值下跌的股市将下跌的原因。</blockquote></p><p> In theory, Friday's post-Thanksgiving environment is traditionally lightly traded and therefore more susceptible to outsize price swings.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，周五感恩节后的环境传统上交易清淡，因此更容易受到价格大幅波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq saw its lowest volume of the year on Black Friday, with 3.479 billion shares trading hands, well below the year-to-date average of 5.099 billion. The total composite volume, including trading on Intercontinental Exchange&nbsp;-owned NYSE platforms, was 8.760 billion, compared with an year-to-date average of 11.196 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克在黑色星期五创下今年最低成交量，成交量为 34.79 亿股，远低于年初至今 50.99 亿股的平均水平。根据道琼斯市场数据，包括洲际交易所旗下纽约证券交易所平台上的交易在内的总综合交易量为 87.60 亿美元，而年初至今的平均水平为 111.96 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Still, only time will tell whether the reaction to omicron is a textbook, knee-jerk selloff or something more sinister.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，只有时间才能证明对奥密克戎的反应是教科书式的、下意识的抛售还是更险恶的东西。</blockquote></p><p> MarketWatch's Bill Watts wrote, citing Friday research from Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, that the next level of support to watch for the S&amp;P 500 after closing at 4,594,62 on Friday is at 4,570, the 50-day exponential average; 4,566, the 38.2% retracement of the rally; and 4,550, a previous high from early September.</p><p><blockquote>MarketWatch 的 Bill Watts 援引 Arbeter Investments 的 Mark Arbeter 周五的研究写道，标普500周五收于 4,594.62 点后，下一个值得关注的支撑位是 4,570 点，即 50 天指数平均线；4,566，反弹38.2%回撤；4,550，创9月初以来的新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"It is too early to know to what extent the new variant will affect economies and markets, and Friday's market moves have probably been exacerbated by reduced liquidity owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the risk that further bad news emerges over the weekend,\" writes Jonas Goltermann senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday research note.</p><p><blockquote>“现在知道新变种将在多大程度上影响经济和市场还为时过早，周五的市场走势可能会因美国感恩节假期导致流动性减少以及周末出现更多坏消息的风险而加剧，”凯投宏观高级市场经济学家乔纳斯·戈尔特曼在周五的研究报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> J.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog writes that things could get dicey if the S&amp;P 500 is driven below 4,500, with little support beneath that point.</p><p><blockquote>J.C。全明星图表博客的Parets写道，如果标普500跌破4500点，事情可能会变得危险，低于4500点几乎没有支撑。</blockquote></p><p> \"You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&amp;P 500, nothing good happens below 4500,\" he writes in a Friday blog.</p><p><blockquote>“你知道父母总是告诉你午夜之后不会有什么好事发生吗？在标普500，4500 以下不会有什么好事发生，”他在周五的博客中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfdc3ebd8825870bc713469baf0d1b2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>All Star Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>所有星图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted,\" Parets writes.</p><p><blockquote>帕雷特写道：“如果我们低于这个水平，那么可能会出现更大的问题，18 个月来最严重的现金头寸将是合理的。”</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts say that there are legitimate reasons for unease, on the public health front.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析人士说，在公共卫生方面，有合理的理由感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fact that this variant seems to be spreading much faster than previous versions (including the Delta variant) bears very careful monitoring,\" wrote Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, in a research note. There are some questions about the effectiveness of existing COVID vaccines from Pfizer&nbsp;and Moderna&nbsp;due to the number of mutations that the omicron variant bears on the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus targeted by COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷全球首席投资官 Michael Strobaek 在一份研究报告中写道：“这种变种的传播速度似乎比之前的版本（包括德尔塔变异毒株）快得多，这一事实需要非常仔细的监控。”由于奥密克戎变体在刺突蛋白上携带的突变数量，辉瑞和Moderna现有COVID疫苗的有效性存在一些问题。刺突蛋白是新冠肺炎疫苗针对的病毒部分。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst at Jefferies led by analyst Sean Darby note that risk-appetite was already edging lower before Black Friday and the selloff may have been a \"tipping point\" in favor of caution and risk moderation.</p><p><blockquote>由分析师肖恩·达比 (Sean Darby) 领导的杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 分析师指出，在黑色星期五之前，风险偏好已经在逐渐下降，抛售可能是有利于谨慎和风险适度的“临界点”。</blockquote></p><p> \"The news of a new or not so new COVID variant spreading in Southern Africaappears to have been the tipping point in altering risk appetite in the past 24 hours,\" the Jefferies analyst wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞分析师写道：“一种新的或不那么新的新冠病毒变种在南部非洲传播的消息似乎是过去 24 小时内改变风险偏好的转折点。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"However, there has been a sea change in risk variables over the past month -- anincreasing number of 'tailed treasury auctions', declining equity market breadth andthe imperceptible change in US retail appetite that seems to have gone unnoticed.Positioning in global equities is one of the most aggressive in US history,\" according to Darby and his colleagues.</p><p><blockquote>“然而，过去一个月风险变量发生了巨大变化——‘尾随国债拍卖’数量增加、股票市场广度下降以及美国零售偏好似乎没有被注意到的不易察觉的变化。全球股市的定位是美国历史上最激进的股票之一，”达比和他的同事表示。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies research suggests that investors are now expecting that the Federal Reserve, under renominated Chairman Jerome Powell, will hasten the pace of reductions in the central bank's asset purchases, which will lead to tighter financial conditions that could prove unfavorable to risky assets. Goldman Sachs sees the Fed stepping up tapering to $30 billion a month from a reduction of $15 billion, and estimates three policy interest rate increases in 2022, up from two.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞的研究表明，投资者现在预计，在重新提名的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的领导下，美联储将加快减少央行资产购买的步伐，这将导致金融状况收紧，这可能不利于风险资产。高盛预计美联储将从每月 150 亿美元缩减规模加大至 300 亿美元，并预计 2022 年将加息三次，高于两次。</blockquote></p><p> \"Ultimately the Sharpe ratio -- a measure of return per unit of risk -- isturning for global equities. We expect the gap between the performance of risky and safe haven assets to diminish,\" Jefferies wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞写道：“最终，夏普比率（衡量每单位风险回报的指标）将适用于全球股市。我们预计风险资产和避险资产的表现之间的差距将会缩小。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2b6cd6fadb4dd80d04e06539404155\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>via Jefferies</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过杰富瑞</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The situation could still prove a buying opportunity for bold investors, however.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于大胆的投资者来说，这种情况仍然可能是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> Strobaek wrote that \"risk assets such as equities are likely to give back some strength, but we would see this as an opportunity in selective and specific areas.\"</p><p><blockquote>斯特罗贝克写道，“股票等风险资产可能会恢复一些实力，但我们将此视为选择性和特定领域的机会。”</blockquote></p><p> \"At this point, we reiterate our assessment from the latest Investment Committee report, i.e. keeping equities at a small overweight in portfolios and government bonds at an underweight,\" the Credit Suisse CIO writes.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席信息官写道：“在这一点上，我们重申我们对最新投资委员会报告的评估，即将投资组合中的股票保持在较小的跑赢大盘，将政府债券保持在跑输大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at Citigroup also said that \"we would buy into any dip,\" noting that its bearish checklist doesn't indicate significant red flags. \"Valuations look stretched, but other factors (credit spreads, fund flows) are not yet especially extended,\" Citi writes, with 7.5 out of 18 red flags triggered in its measures of global markets while the U.S. is seeing 9.5 of 18.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团分析师还表示，“我们会在任何下跌时买入”，并指出其看跌清单并未显示出重大危险信号。花旗写道：“估值看起来捉襟见肘，但其他因素（信用利差、资金流动）尚未特别扩大。”花旗在衡量全球市场时触发了 18 个危险信号中的 7.5 个，而美国则触发了 18 个危险信号中的 9.5 个。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4fba734970a8c977a13d6972402b65f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Citi Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>花旗研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in Port Chester, NY says that the end-of-week selling may have resulted in a Black Friday sale for stock-market investors.</p><p><blockquote>纽约州切斯特港 AXS Investments 首席执行官格雷格·巴苏克 (Greg Bassuk) 表示，周末的抛售可能导致股市投资者遭遇黑色星期五抛售。</blockquote></p><p> \"Black Friday is typically the unofficial kick-off to the annual holiday shopping season. But we believe the real shopping is for stocks that are beaten-down from Covid infection spikes, inflation fears, and supply chain woes, but that still possess strong fundamentals that will drive their gains as the economy ultimately reopens,\" he wrote</p><p><blockquote>“黑色星期五通常是一年一度假日购物季的非官方开始。但我们认为，真正的购物是针对那些因新冠感染激增、通胀担忧和供应链困境而遭受重创，但仍然拥有强劲基本面的股票，随着经济最终重新开放，这将推动它们上涨，”他写道</blockquote></p><p> That said, some analysts note that the lockdowns playing out in Europe and the spread of COVID, even before the omicron declaration, were reasons to be cautious since they will impact the global growth outlook.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，一些分析师指出，即使在奥密克戎宣言发表之前，欧洲的封锁和新冠病毒的传播也是保持谨慎的理由，因为它们将影响全球增长前景。</blockquote></p><p> Either way, it seems that a degree of caveat emptor may be in force next week and could color trading for the remainder of the 2021.</p><p><blockquote>无论哪种方式，买家似乎都可能在下周生效，并可能影响 2021 年剩余时间的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Trading on Monday will help determine whether bullishness persists or if a bearish phase is crystallizing.</p><p><blockquote>周一的交易将有助于确定看涨情绪是否持续，或者看跌阶段是否正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a week focused on the state of employment, with the November U.S. jobs report due at the end of the week and Powell and others offering their final thoughts before a media blackout period starting ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of 2021 on Dec. 14-15.</p><p><blockquote>这将是关注就业状况的一周，11月美国就业报告将于本周末发布，鲍威尔和其他人将在12月14日至15日联邦公开市场委员会2021年最后一次会议之前的媒体封锁期开始之前提供他们的最终想法。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀可能对周一股市交易意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀可能对周一股市交易意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-29 07:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OMG, omicron!</p><p><blockquote>天哪，奥密克戎!</blockquote></p><p> The new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>世界卫生组织宣布的新型、快速传播的 B.1.1.529 冠状病毒株为令人担忧的变种，在黑色星期五扰乱了全球市场，引发了人们对未来一周经济和华尔街表现的担忧，此前抛售抹去了标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数 11 月份的涨幅，并导致道琼斯工业平均指数创下 2020 年 10 月 28 日以来的最大单日跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> WHO said that the omicron variant, which has been detected in Belgium, Israel, and Hong Kong and was first identified in southern parts of Africa, is more transmissible than the delta strain that is currently dominant world-wide, and other variants.</p><p><blockquote>世卫组织表示，已在比利时、以色列和中国香港发现并首次在非洲南部发现的奥密克戎变种比目前在全球占主导地位的德尔塔毒株和其他变种更具传染性。</blockquote></p><p> The emergence of the new strain led to the White House announcing restrictions, starting on Monday, on travel for non-U.S. citizens and residents from South Africa, as well as from Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi, joining the European Union, the U.K., Singapore and Japan, which also announced similar travel bans.</p><p><blockquote>新毒株的出现导致白宫宣布从周一开始限制来自南非以及博茨瓦纳、津巴布韦、纳米比亚、莱索托、斯威士兰、莫桑比克和马拉维的非美国公民和居民的旅行，加入了欧盟、英国、新加坡和日本的行列，这些国家也宣布了类似的旅行禁令。</blockquote></p><p> The market selloff during the abbreviated Black Friday session and the commensurate flight to assets that investors hope will perform better amid fresh mobility restrictions, helped to overshadow the usual focus on retail, on a day associated with heavy consumer spending ahead of the Christmas holiday. Friday's downturn also offered a crystal clear reminder that the path of the market and economy hinges on the course of COVID.</p><p><blockquote>黑色星期五缩短交易时段期间的市场抛售，以及投资者希望在新的流动性限制下表现更好的资产的相应撤离，帮助掩盖了人们通常对零售业的关注，而这一天与圣诞节假期前消费者支出大量相关。周五的低迷也清楚地提醒人们，市场和经济的道路取决于新冠疫情的进程。</blockquote></p><p> What isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do lasting harm to the complexion of the market. Omicron comes at a fragile time for optimistic investors, with bears pointing to lofty stock market valuations, inflation worries and global economic growth concerns as reasons to expect a drawdown in equities that have managed to avoid a decline from a peak of more than 5%.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚的是，最新的冠状病毒发展是否会对市场造成持久损害。对于乐观的投资者来说，奥密克戎正值脆弱时期，空头指出，股市估值过高、通胀担忧和全球经济增长担忧是预期成功避免从 5% 以上峰值下跌的股市将下跌的原因。</blockquote></p><p> In theory, Friday's post-Thanksgiving environment is traditionally lightly traded and therefore more susceptible to outsize price swings.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，周五感恩节后的环境传统上交易清淡，因此更容易受到价格大幅波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq saw its lowest volume of the year on Black Friday, with 3.479 billion shares trading hands, well below the year-to-date average of 5.099 billion. The total composite volume, including trading on Intercontinental Exchange&nbsp;-owned NYSE platforms, was 8.760 billion, compared with an year-to-date average of 11.196 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克在黑色星期五创下今年最低成交量，成交量为 34.79 亿股，远低于年初至今 50.99 亿股的平均水平。根据道琼斯市场数据，包括洲际交易所旗下纽约证券交易所平台上的交易在内的总综合交易量为 87.60 亿美元，而年初至今的平均水平为 111.96 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Still, only time will tell whether the reaction to omicron is a textbook, knee-jerk selloff or something more sinister.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，只有时间才能证明对奥密克戎的反应是教科书式的、下意识的抛售还是更险恶的东西。</blockquote></p><p> MarketWatch's Bill Watts wrote, citing Friday research from Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, that the next level of support to watch for the S&amp;P 500 after closing at 4,594,62 on Friday is at 4,570, the 50-day exponential average; 4,566, the 38.2% retracement of the rally; and 4,550, a previous high from early September.</p><p><blockquote>MarketWatch 的 Bill Watts 援引 Arbeter Investments 的 Mark Arbeter 周五的研究写道，标普500周五收于 4,594.62 点后，下一个值得关注的支撑位是 4,570 点，即 50 天指数平均线；4,566，反弹38.2%回撤；4,550，创9月初以来的新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"It is too early to know to what extent the new variant will affect economies and markets, and Friday's market moves have probably been exacerbated by reduced liquidity owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the risk that further bad news emerges over the weekend,\" writes Jonas Goltermann senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday research note.</p><p><blockquote>“现在知道新变种将在多大程度上影响经济和市场还为时过早，周五的市场走势可能会因美国感恩节假期导致流动性减少以及周末出现更多坏消息的风险而加剧，”凯投宏观高级市场经济学家乔纳斯·戈尔特曼在周五的研究报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> J.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog writes that things could get dicey if the S&amp;P 500 is driven below 4,500, with little support beneath that point.</p><p><blockquote>J.C。全明星图表博客的Parets写道，如果标普500跌破4500点，事情可能会变得危险，低于4500点几乎没有支撑。</blockquote></p><p> \"You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&amp;P 500, nothing good happens below 4500,\" he writes in a Friday blog.</p><p><blockquote>“你知道父母总是告诉你午夜之后不会有什么好事发生吗？在标普500，4500 以下不会有什么好事发生，”他在周五的博客中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfdc3ebd8825870bc713469baf0d1b2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>All Star Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>所有星图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted,\" Parets writes.</p><p><blockquote>帕雷特写道：“如果我们低于这个水平，那么可能会出现更大的问题，18 个月来最严重的现金头寸将是合理的。”</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts say that there are legitimate reasons for unease, on the public health front.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析人士说，在公共卫生方面，有合理的理由感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fact that this variant seems to be spreading much faster than previous versions (including the Delta variant) bears very careful monitoring,\" wrote Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, in a research note. There are some questions about the effectiveness of existing COVID vaccines from Pfizer&nbsp;and Moderna&nbsp;due to the number of mutations that the omicron variant bears on the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus targeted by COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷全球首席投资官 Michael Strobaek 在一份研究报告中写道：“这种变种的传播速度似乎比之前的版本（包括德尔塔变异毒株）快得多，这一事实需要非常仔细的监控。”由于奥密克戎变体在刺突蛋白上携带的突变数量，辉瑞和Moderna现有COVID疫苗的有效性存在一些问题。刺突蛋白是新冠肺炎疫苗针对的病毒部分。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst at Jefferies led by analyst Sean Darby note that risk-appetite was already edging lower before Black Friday and the selloff may have been a \"tipping point\" in favor of caution and risk moderation.</p><p><blockquote>由分析师肖恩·达比 (Sean Darby) 领导的杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 分析师指出，在黑色星期五之前，风险偏好已经在逐渐下降，抛售可能是有利于谨慎和风险适度的“临界点”。</blockquote></p><p> \"The news of a new or not so new COVID variant spreading in Southern Africaappears to have been the tipping point in altering risk appetite in the past 24 hours,\" the Jefferies analyst wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞分析师写道：“一种新的或不那么新的新冠病毒变种在南部非洲传播的消息似乎是过去 24 小时内改变风险偏好的转折点。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"However, there has been a sea change in risk variables over the past month -- anincreasing number of 'tailed treasury auctions', declining equity market breadth andthe imperceptible change in US retail appetite that seems to have gone unnoticed.Positioning in global equities is one of the most aggressive in US history,\" according to Darby and his colleagues.</p><p><blockquote>“然而，过去一个月风险变量发生了巨大变化——‘尾随国债拍卖’数量增加、股票市场广度下降以及美国零售偏好似乎没有被注意到的不易察觉的变化。全球股市的定位是美国历史上最激进的股票之一，”达比和他的同事表示。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies research suggests that investors are now expecting that the Federal Reserve, under renominated Chairman Jerome Powell, will hasten the pace of reductions in the central bank's asset purchases, which will lead to tighter financial conditions that could prove unfavorable to risky assets. Goldman Sachs sees the Fed stepping up tapering to $30 billion a month from a reduction of $15 billion, and estimates three policy interest rate increases in 2022, up from two.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞的研究表明，投资者现在预计，在重新提名的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的领导下，美联储将加快减少央行资产购买的步伐，这将导致金融状况收紧，这可能不利于风险资产。高盛预计美联储将从每月 150 亿美元缩减规模加大至 300 亿美元，并预计 2022 年将加息三次，高于两次。</blockquote></p><p> \"Ultimately the Sharpe ratio -- a measure of return per unit of risk -- isturning for global equities. We expect the gap between the performance of risky and safe haven assets to diminish,\" Jefferies wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞写道：“最终，夏普比率（衡量每单位风险回报的指标）将适用于全球股市。我们预计风险资产和避险资产的表现之间的差距将会缩小。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2b6cd6fadb4dd80d04e06539404155\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>via Jefferies</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过杰富瑞</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The situation could still prove a buying opportunity for bold investors, however.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于大胆的投资者来说，这种情况仍然可能是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> Strobaek wrote that \"risk assets such as equities are likely to give back some strength, but we would see this as an opportunity in selective and specific areas.\"</p><p><blockquote>斯特罗贝克写道，“股票等风险资产可能会恢复一些实力，但我们将此视为选择性和特定领域的机会。”</blockquote></p><p> \"At this point, we reiterate our assessment from the latest Investment Committee report, i.e. keeping equities at a small overweight in portfolios and government bonds at an underweight,\" the Credit Suisse CIO writes.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席信息官写道：“在这一点上，我们重申我们对最新投资委员会报告的评估，即将投资组合中的股票保持在较小的跑赢大盘，将政府债券保持在跑输大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at Citigroup also said that \"we would buy into any dip,\" noting that its bearish checklist doesn't indicate significant red flags. \"Valuations look stretched, but other factors (credit spreads, fund flows) are not yet especially extended,\" Citi writes, with 7.5 out of 18 red flags triggered in its measures of global markets while the U.S. is seeing 9.5 of 18.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团分析师还表示，“我们会在任何下跌时买入”，并指出其看跌清单并未显示出重大危险信号。花旗写道：“估值看起来捉襟见肘，但其他因素（信用利差、资金流动）尚未特别扩大。”花旗在衡量全球市场时触发了 18 个危险信号中的 7.5 个，而美国则触发了 18 个危险信号中的 9.5 个。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4fba734970a8c977a13d6972402b65f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Citi Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>花旗研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in Port Chester, NY says that the end-of-week selling may have resulted in a Black Friday sale for stock-market investors.</p><p><blockquote>纽约州切斯特港 AXS Investments 首席执行官格雷格·巴苏克 (Greg Bassuk) 表示，周末的抛售可能导致股市投资者遭遇黑色星期五抛售。</blockquote></p><p> \"Black Friday is typically the unofficial kick-off to the annual holiday shopping season. But we believe the real shopping is for stocks that are beaten-down from Covid infection spikes, inflation fears, and supply chain woes, but that still possess strong fundamentals that will drive their gains as the economy ultimately reopens,\" he wrote</p><p><blockquote>“黑色星期五通常是一年一度假日购物季的非官方开始。但我们认为，真正的购物是针对那些因新冠感染激增、通胀担忧和供应链困境而遭受重创，但仍然拥有强劲基本面的股票，随着经济最终重新开放，这将推动它们上涨，”他写道</blockquote></p><p> That said, some analysts note that the lockdowns playing out in Europe and the spread of COVID, even before the omicron declaration, were reasons to be cautious since they will impact the global growth outlook.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，一些分析师指出，即使在奥密克戎宣言发表之前，欧洲的封锁和新冠病毒的传播也是保持谨慎的理由，因为它们将影响全球增长前景。</blockquote></p><p> Either way, it seems that a degree of caveat emptor may be in force next week and could color trading for the remainder of the 2021.</p><p><blockquote>无论哪种方式，买家似乎都可能在下周生效，并可能影响 2021 年剩余时间的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Trading on Monday will help determine whether bullishness persists or if a bearish phase is crystallizing.</p><p><blockquote>周一的交易将有助于确定看涨情绪是否持续，或者看跌阶段是否正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a week focused on the state of employment, with the November U.S. jobs report due at the end of the week and Powell and others offering their final thoughts before a media blackout period starting ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of 2021 on Dec. 14-15.</p><p><blockquote>这将是关注就业状况的一周，11月美国就业报告将于本周末发布，鲍威尔和其他人将在12月14日至15日联邦公开市场委员会2021年最后一次会议之前的媒体封锁期开始之前提供他们的最终想法。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-black-friday-carnage-may-mean-for-the-stock-markets-trade-monday-analysts-say-11638021516?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","ICE":"洲际交易所","PFE":"辉瑞","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4007":"制药"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-black-friday-carnage-may-mean-for-the-stock-markets-trade-monday-analysts-say-11638021516?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2187329491","content_text":"OMG, omicron!\nThe new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.\nWHO said that the omicron variant, which has been detected in Belgium, Israel, and Hong Kong and was first identified in southern parts of Africa, is more transmissible than the delta strain that is currently dominant world-wide, and other variants.\nThe emergence of the new strain led to the White House announcing restrictions, starting on Monday, on travel for non-U.S. citizens and residents from South Africa, as well as from Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi, joining the European Union, the U.K., Singapore and Japan, which also announced similar travel bans.\nThe market selloff during the abbreviated Black Friday session and the commensurate flight to assets that investors hope will perform better amid fresh mobility restrictions, helped to overshadow the usual focus on retail, on a day associated with heavy consumer spending ahead of the Christmas holiday. Friday's downturn also offered a crystal clear reminder that the path of the market and economy hinges on the course of COVID.\nWhat isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do lasting harm to the complexion of the market. Omicron comes at a fragile time for optimistic investors, with bears pointing to lofty stock market valuations, inflation worries and global economic growth concerns as reasons to expect a drawdown in equities that have managed to avoid a decline from a peak of more than 5%.\nIn theory, Friday's post-Thanksgiving environment is traditionally lightly traded and therefore more susceptible to outsize price swings.\nThe Nasdaq saw its lowest volume of the year on Black Friday, with 3.479 billion shares trading hands, well below the year-to-date average of 5.099 billion. The total composite volume, including trading on Intercontinental Exchange -owned NYSE platforms, was 8.760 billion, compared with an year-to-date average of 11.196 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nStill, only time will tell whether the reaction to omicron is a textbook, knee-jerk selloff or something more sinister.\nMarketWatch's Bill Watts wrote, citing Friday research from Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, that the next level of support to watch for the S&P 500 after closing at 4,594,62 on Friday is at 4,570, the 50-day exponential average; 4,566, the 38.2% retracement of the rally; and 4,550, a previous high from early September.\n\"It is too early to know to what extent the new variant will affect economies and markets, and Friday's market moves have probably been exacerbated by reduced liquidity owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the risk that further bad news emerges over the weekend,\" writes Jonas Goltermann senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday research note.\nJ.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog writes that things could get dicey if the S&P 500 is driven below 4,500, with little support beneath that point.\n\"You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&P 500, nothing good happens below 4500,\" he writes in a Friday blog.\nAll Star Charts\n\"If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted,\" Parets writes.\nSome analysts say that there are legitimate reasons for unease, on the public health front.\n\"The fact that this variant seems to be spreading much faster than previous versions (including the Delta variant) bears very careful monitoring,\" wrote Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, in a research note. There are some questions about the effectiveness of existing COVID vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna due to the number of mutations that the omicron variant bears on the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus targeted by COVID-19 vaccines.\nAnalyst at Jefferies led by analyst Sean Darby note that risk-appetite was already edging lower before Black Friday and the selloff may have been a \"tipping point\" in favor of caution and risk moderation.\n\"The news of a new or not so new COVID variant spreading in Southern Africaappears to have been the tipping point in altering risk appetite in the past 24 hours,\" the Jefferies analyst wrote.\n\"However, there has been a sea change in risk variables over the past month -- anincreasing number of 'tailed treasury auctions', declining equity market breadth andthe imperceptible change in US retail appetite that seems to have gone unnoticed.Positioning in global equities is one of the most aggressive in US history,\" according to Darby and his colleagues.\nJefferies research suggests that investors are now expecting that the Federal Reserve, under renominated Chairman Jerome Powell, will hasten the pace of reductions in the central bank's asset purchases, which will lead to tighter financial conditions that could prove unfavorable to risky assets. Goldman Sachs sees the Fed stepping up tapering to $30 billion a month from a reduction of $15 billion, and estimates three policy interest rate increases in 2022, up from two.\n\"Ultimately the Sharpe ratio -- a measure of return per unit of risk -- isturning for global equities. We expect the gap between the performance of risky and safe haven assets to diminish,\" Jefferies wrote.\nvia Jefferies\nThe situation could still prove a buying opportunity for bold investors, however.\nStrobaek wrote that \"risk assets such as equities are likely to give back some strength, but we would see this as an opportunity in selective and specific areas.\"\n\"At this point, we reiterate our assessment from the latest Investment Committee report, i.e. keeping equities at a small overweight in portfolios and government bonds at an underweight,\" the Credit Suisse CIO writes.\nAnalysts at Citigroup also said that \"we would buy into any dip,\" noting that its bearish checklist doesn't indicate significant red flags. \"Valuations look stretched, but other factors (credit spreads, fund flows) are not yet especially extended,\" Citi writes, with 7.5 out of 18 red flags triggered in its measures of global markets while the U.S. is seeing 9.5 of 18.\nCiti Research\nGreg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in Port Chester, NY says that the end-of-week selling may have resulted in a Black Friday sale for stock-market investors.\n\"Black Friday is typically the unofficial kick-off to the annual holiday shopping season. But we believe the real shopping is for stocks that are beaten-down from Covid infection spikes, inflation fears, and supply chain woes, but that still possess strong fundamentals that will drive their gains as the economy ultimately reopens,\" he wrote\nThat said, some analysts note that the lockdowns playing out in Europe and the spread of COVID, even before the omicron declaration, were reasons to be cautious since they will impact the global growth outlook.\nEither way, it seems that a degree of caveat emptor may be in force next week and could color trading for the remainder of the 2021.\nTrading on Monday will help determine whether bullishness persists or if a bearish phase is crystallizing.\nIt will be a week focused on the state of employment, with the November U.S. jobs report due at the end of the week and Powell and others offering their final thoughts before a media blackout period starting ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of 2021 on Dec. 14-15.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"END":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ICE":0.9,"PFE":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600055818,"gmtCreate":1638018758397,"gmtModify":1638018758397,"author":{"id":"4099791290908220","authorId":"4099791290908220","name":"wat3ver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e222df3efb05da19ab1fe794f91b961","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099791290908220","authorIdStr":"4099791290908220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Best time to buy.","listText":"Best time to buy.","text":"Best time to buy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600055818","repostId":"2186344334","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874548338,"gmtCreate":1637804854714,"gmtModify":1637804876571,"author":{"id":"4099791290908220","authorId":"4099791290908220","name":"wat3ver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e222df3efb05da19ab1fe794f91b961","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099791290908220","authorIdStr":"4099791290908220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time to add for long term hold","listText":"Time to add for long term hold","text":"Time to add for long term hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874548338","repostId":"1118916839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874543064,"gmtCreate":1637804672950,"gmtModify":1637804673002,"author":{"id":"4099791290908220","authorId":"4099791290908220","name":"wat3ver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e222df3efb05da19ab1fe794f91b961","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099791290908220","authorIdStr":"4099791290908220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874543064","repostId":"2186157368","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878523350,"gmtCreate":1637209005599,"gmtModify":1637209005599,"author":{"id":"4099791290908220","authorId":"4099791290908220","name":"wat3ver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e222df3efb05da19ab1fe794f91b961","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099791290908220","authorIdStr":"4099791290908220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Inflation is eroding the value of USD. The only hedge against that is BTC","listText":"Inflation is eroding the value of USD. The only hedge against that is BTC","text":"Inflation is eroding the value of USD. The only hedge against that is BTC","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878523350","repostId":"2184510828","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871837908,"gmtCreate":1637048999805,"gmtModify":1637048999856,"author":{"id":"4099791290908220","authorId":"4099791290908220","name":"wat3ver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e222df3efb05da19ab1fe794f91b961","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099791290908220","authorIdStr":"4099791290908220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"To the moon","listText":"To the moon","text":"To the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871837908","repostId":"2183112076","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879177534,"gmtCreate":1636697378521,"gmtModify":1636698082568,"author":{"id":"4099791290908220","authorId":"4099791290908220","name":"wat3ver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e222df3efb05da19ab1fe794f91b961","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099791290908220","authorIdStr":"4099791290908220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy btc","listText":"Buy btc","text":"Buy btc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879177534","repostId":"1166672248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166672248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636688711,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166672248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-12 11:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation Hits a 30-Year High. Will It Sink Biden’s Agenda?<blockquote>通货膨胀率创30年来新高。这会破坏拜登的议程吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166672248","media":"The fiscal times","summary":"U.S. prices rose 6.2% over the last year, the largest annual increase since 1990, the Bureau of Labo","content":"<p>U.S. prices rose 6.2% over the last year, the largest annual increase since 1990, the Bureau of Labor StatisticsannouncedWednesday.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工统计局周三宣布，去年美国物价上涨 6.2%，为 1990 年以来最大年度涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Prices rose 0.9% in October compared to September, with the cost of energy, shelter, food and cars both new and used rising significantly during the month. On a 12-month basis, the cost of fuel oil is up about 60%, utilities are up 28% and the price of bacon is up 20%.</p><p><blockquote>10 月份价格比 9 月份上涨 0.9%，能源、住所、食品和新车和二手车的成本在当月大幅上涨。按12个月计算，燃油价格上涨了约60%，公用事业价格上涨了28%，培根价格上涨了20%。</blockquote></p><p> In a separate report, the Labor Department said that while wages rose on a nominal basis in October, the increase in inflation was enough to produce an overall decrease of 0.5% in wages when factoring in inflation.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部在另一份报告中表示，虽然10月份工资名义上涨，但考虑到通货膨胀，通货膨胀的增加足以导致工资总体下降0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The latest data are feeding worries that inflation will continue to be higher and more persistent during the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic than some economists had predicted. Both the White House and the Federal Reserve have portrayed recent price hikes as largely “transitory,” driven by comparisons with numbers from last year’s pandemic and supply chain problems that will eventually resolve themselves, but Wednesday’s report is raising new doubts about those claims.</p><p><blockquote>最新数据加剧了人们的担忧，即在从 Covid-19 大流行复苏期间，通胀将继续比一些经济学家预测的更高、更持久。白宫和美联储都将最近的价格上涨描述为 “暂时的”，这是因为与去年大流行病和供应链问题的数据进行了比较，而供应链问题最终会自行解决，但周三的报告对这些说法提出了新的质疑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A threat to Biden’s agenda — and presidency:</b>Politically, the inflation numbers could make it more difficult for President Joe Biden to push through his $1.8 trillion Build Back Better bill, the next major plank of his economic agenda.</p><p><blockquote><b>对拜登议程和总统职位的威胁：</b>在政治上，通胀数据可能会让乔·拜登总统更难推动他的1.8万亿美元重建更好法案，这是他经济议程的下一个主要支柱。</blockquote></p><p> Sen. Joe Manchin, an essential vote in an evenly divided Senate, has repeatedly criticized the size of the bill — now reduced to about half its original size largely in response to his concerns — and on Wednesday the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WSTC\">West</a> Virginia Democrat indicated that the latest numbers may make him dig in on his position.</p><p><blockquote>参议员乔-曼钦（Joe Manchin）是参议院势均力敌的重要一票，他一再批评该法案的规模--现在主要是为了回应他的担忧，该法案的规模已缩小到原来的一半左右--周三，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WSTC\">西方</a>弗吉尼亚州民主党人表示，最新的数字可能会让他挖掘自己的立场。</blockquote></p><p> “By all accounts, the threat posed by record inflation to the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> people is not ‘transitory’ and is instead getting worse,” Manchin tweeted. “From the grocery store to the gas pump, Americans know the inflation tax is real and DC can no longer ignore the economic pain Americans feel every day.”</p><p><blockquote>“从各方面来看，创纪录的通货膨胀对经济构成的威胁<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>曼钦在推特上写道：“人不是'暂时的'，反而会变得更糟。”“从杂货店到加油站，美国人都知道通货膨胀税是真实存在的，华盛顿特区再也不能忽视美国人每天感受到的经济痛苦了”。</blockquote></p><p> Biden responded to those concerns in astatementWednesday, arguing that the recently passed infrastructure bill will help ease supply bottlenecks, while the larger social spending package still under debate would fight inflation by reducing the cost of child care, prescription drugs and health coverage.</p><p><blockquote>拜登周三在一份声明中回应了这些担忧，他认为最近通过的基础设施法案将有助于缓解供应瓶颈，而仍在辩论中的更大的社会支出计划将通过降低儿童保育、处方药和医疗保险的成本来对抗通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Biden sent a signal that he recognizes that rising prices are a problem. “Inflation hurts Americans pocketbooks, and reversing this trend is a top priority for me,” he said in a speech at the port of Baltimore. He said he has ordered White House officials to address the issue: “I have directed my <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> Economic Council to pursue means to try to further reduce these costs, and have asked the Federal Trade Commission to strike back at any market manipulation or price gouging in [the energy] sector.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，拜登还是发出了一个信号，即他认识到价格上涨是一个问题。“他在巴尔的摩港发表讲话时说：”通货膨胀伤害了美国人的钱包，扭转这一趋势是我的首要任务。他说，他已经命令白宫官员解决这个问题： “我已经指示我的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a>经济委员会已要求美国联邦贸易委员会（Federal Trade Commission）采取措施进一步降低这些成本，并要求美国联邦贸易委员会（Federal Trade Commission）对（能源）领域的任何市场操纵或价格欺诈行为进行反击。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The debate over Biden’s spending plan:</b>At the same time, many economists have pushed back against the idea that spending provided by the Build Back Better plan would be inflationary in the first place. Assuming its cost is fully or largely offset, the legislation would produce only limited inflationary effects, and perhaps none at all, depending on how it’s implemented. On top of that, the spending is spread out over 10 years, with its annual effect being only a fraction of the overall cost.</p><p><blockquote><b>关于拜登支出计划的辩论：</b>与此同时，许多经济学家反驳了“重建更好”计划提供的支出首先会导致通货膨胀的观点。假设其成本得到全部或大部分抵消，那么该立法只会产生有限的通胀影响，甚至可能根本不会产生任何影响，这取决于其实施方式。最重要的是，支出分散在10年内，其年度影响仅占总成本的一小部分。</blockquote></p><p> “The reconciliation bill would have essentially no discernible effect on the medium- or long-term path of inflation,” former White House economic adviser Jason Furman tweeted Wednesday. “That legislation should be evaluated on other criteria like what it does for opportunity, climate change &amp; long-term growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“前白宫经济顾问杰森-弗曼（Jason Furman）周三在推特上写道：”和解法案对中长期通胀路径基本上不会产生明显影响。“这项立法应该根据其他标准进行评估，比如它在机会、气候变化和长期增长方面的作用”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>More pressure on the Fed?</b>In his statement Wednesday, Biden cited the Fed’s role in fighting inflation. “I want to reemphasize my commitment to the independence of the Federal Reserve to monitor inflation, and take steps necessary to combat it,” he said.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储面临更大压力？</b>拜登在周三的声明中提到了美联储在抗击通胀方面的作用。“他说：”我想重申，我致力于美联储独立监测通货膨胀，并采取必要措施应对通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> As part of an effort to withdraw its support for the economy, the central bank announced last week that it would start winding down its $120 billion per month bond-purchasing program in November, with the goal of ending it entirely by June. But it also signaled that it had no plans to raise interest rates in the near future, given the fact that millions of Americas are still out of work. Now, with the release of another month of worse-than-expected inflation data, it could face calls to act more quickly and decisively.</p><p><blockquote>作为撤回对经济支持的努力的一部分，央行上周宣布将于11月开始逐步结束每月1200亿美元的债券购买计划，目标是在6月前完全结束该计划。但它也表示，鉴于数百万美国人仍然失业，它没有近期加息的计划。现在，随着又一个月比预期更糟糕的通胀数据的公布，它可能会面临评级采取更迅速、更果断的行动。</blockquote></p><p> “It is hard to see how the Fed will be able to stay on the sidelines much longer,” Matthew Sherwood of the Economist Intelligence <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNT\">Unit</a> told Fox Business. Katherine Judge of CIBC Economics said that the latest data “will leave more doubts in the Fed’s mind about how long they can let this inflation run.”</p><p><blockquote>“《经济学人情报》的马修-舍伍德（Matthew Sherwood）说：”很难看出美联储如何能够长期袖手旁观。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNT\">单位</a>告诉福克斯商业频道。CIBC Economics 的凯瑟琳-贾奇（Katherine Judge）表示，最新数据 “将让美联储对他们能让通胀持续多久产生更多疑虑”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Fed is in an increasingly difficult position, though, with its dual mandate of fighting inflation and promoting employment pulling in opposite directions. Persistent inflation could push the bank to raise interest rates sooner than it wants, but doing so could slow the recovery and the much-needed growth in payrolls.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美联储的处境越来越困难，其对抗通胀和促进就业的双重使命正朝着相反的方向发展。持续的通胀可能会促使央行比预期更早加息，但这样做可能会减缓经济复苏和急需的就业增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What comes next:</b>Many experts think inflation will continue to be a problem, at least in the near term. “This is going to get worse before it gets better,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton,toldThe <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POST\">Post</a>.</p><p><blockquote><b>接下来是什么：</b>许多专家认为，至少在短期内，通货膨胀仍将是一个问题。“均富会计师事务所首席经济学家黛安-斯旺克（Diane Swonk）告诉《泰晤士报》：”情况在好转之前还会变得更糟。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POST\">张贴</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, put some numbers on the gloomy outlook. “I hate to say this, but October's core CPI is just a taster,” hetweeted, referring to the core consumer price index, which rose 4.6% in October. “The next few months are going to be horrible. The y/y core rate is headed for 6-6.5% over the next three months, and it could even hit 7%.”</p><p><blockquote>High Frequency Economics 首席美国经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森 (Ian Shepherdson) 给出了一些数字来说明黯淡的前景。“我不想这么说，但 10 月份的核心 CPI 只是一个品尝者，”他指的是 10 月份上涨了 4.6% 的核心消费者价格指数。“未来几个月将是可怕的。未来三个月，同比核心利率将达到 6-6.5%，甚至可能达到 7%。”</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, Shepherdson said that he expects things to improve significantly in the medium term. “I still think as a base case that inflation will be *way* lower a year from now,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，谢泼德森表示，他预计情况将在中期内显着改善。“他说：”我仍然认为，从现在开始，一年后的通货膨胀率将低得多。</blockquote></p><p> The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WRE\">Washington</a> Post’s Heather Long was a bit more ambiguous. “No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> really knows how this is going to end,” she tweeted. “The ‘consensus’ is inflation will be very high through the winter and spring. Then start to moderate. But if Fed, [White House] &amp; Wall Street are wrong, it will get messy. And Fed will have to act (i.e. raise interest rates) in 2022.”</p><p><blockquote>这个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WRE\">华盛顿</a>《邮报》的希瑟-朗（Heather Long）则更加模棱两可。“不<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>她在推特上写道。“'共识'是，通货膨胀率将在整个冬季和春季非常高。然后开始放缓。但如果美联储、[白宫]和华尔街错了，情况就会变得一团糟。美联储将不得不在 2022 年采取行动（即加息）。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1631281755125","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Hits a 30-Year High. Will It Sink Biden’s Agenda?<blockquote>通货膨胀率创30年来新高。这会破坏拜登的议程吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Hits a 30-Year High. Will It Sink Biden’s Agenda?<blockquote>通货膨胀率创30年来新高。这会破坏拜登的议程吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The fiscal times</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-12 11:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. prices rose 6.2% over the last year, the largest annual increase since 1990, the Bureau of Labor StatisticsannouncedWednesday.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工统计局周三宣布，去年美国物价上涨 6.2%，为 1990 年以来最大年度涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Prices rose 0.9% in October compared to September, with the cost of energy, shelter, food and cars both new and used rising significantly during the month. On a 12-month basis, the cost of fuel oil is up about 60%, utilities are up 28% and the price of bacon is up 20%.</p><p><blockquote>10 月份价格比 9 月份上涨 0.9%，能源、住所、食品和新车和二手车的成本在当月大幅上涨。按12个月计算，燃油价格上涨了约60%，公用事业价格上涨了28%，培根价格上涨了20%。</blockquote></p><p> In a separate report, the Labor Department said that while wages rose on a nominal basis in October, the increase in inflation was enough to produce an overall decrease of 0.5% in wages when factoring in inflation.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部在另一份报告中表示，虽然10月份工资名义上涨，但考虑到通货膨胀，通货膨胀的增加足以导致工资总体下降0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The latest data are feeding worries that inflation will continue to be higher and more persistent during the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic than some economists had predicted. Both the White House and the Federal Reserve have portrayed recent price hikes as largely “transitory,” driven by comparisons with numbers from last year’s pandemic and supply chain problems that will eventually resolve themselves, but Wednesday’s report is raising new doubts about those claims.</p><p><blockquote>最新数据加剧了人们的担忧，即在从 Covid-19 大流行复苏期间，通胀将继续比一些经济学家预测的更高、更持久。白宫和美联储都将最近的价格上涨描述为 “暂时的”，这是因为与去年大流行病和供应链问题的数据进行了比较，而供应链问题最终会自行解决，但周三的报告对这些说法提出了新的质疑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A threat to Biden’s agenda — and presidency:</b>Politically, the inflation numbers could make it more difficult for President Joe Biden to push through his $1.8 trillion Build Back Better bill, the next major plank of his economic agenda.</p><p><blockquote><b>对拜登议程和总统职位的威胁：</b>在政治上，通胀数据可能会让乔·拜登总统更难推动他的1.8万亿美元重建更好法案，这是他经济议程的下一个主要支柱。</blockquote></p><p> Sen. Joe Manchin, an essential vote in an evenly divided Senate, has repeatedly criticized the size of the bill — now reduced to about half its original size largely in response to his concerns — and on Wednesday the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WSTC\">West</a> Virginia Democrat indicated that the latest numbers may make him dig in on his position.</p><p><blockquote>参议员乔-曼钦（Joe Manchin）是参议院势均力敌的重要一票，他一再批评该法案的规模--现在主要是为了回应他的担忧，该法案的规模已缩小到原来的一半左右--周三，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WSTC\">西方</a>弗吉尼亚州民主党人表示，最新的数字可能会让他挖掘自己的立场。</blockquote></p><p> “By all accounts, the threat posed by record inflation to the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> people is not ‘transitory’ and is instead getting worse,” Manchin tweeted. “From the grocery store to the gas pump, Americans know the inflation tax is real and DC can no longer ignore the economic pain Americans feel every day.”</p><p><blockquote>“从各方面来看，创纪录的通货膨胀对经济构成的威胁<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>曼钦在推特上写道：“人不是'暂时的'，反而会变得更糟。”“从杂货店到加油站，美国人都知道通货膨胀税是真实存在的，华盛顿特区再也不能忽视美国人每天感受到的经济痛苦了”。</blockquote></p><p> Biden responded to those concerns in astatementWednesday, arguing that the recently passed infrastructure bill will help ease supply bottlenecks, while the larger social spending package still under debate would fight inflation by reducing the cost of child care, prescription drugs and health coverage.</p><p><blockquote>拜登周三在一份声明中回应了这些担忧，他认为最近通过的基础设施法案将有助于缓解供应瓶颈，而仍在辩论中的更大的社会支出计划将通过降低儿童保育、处方药和医疗保险的成本来对抗通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Biden sent a signal that he recognizes that rising prices are a problem. “Inflation hurts Americans pocketbooks, and reversing this trend is a top priority for me,” he said in a speech at the port of Baltimore. He said he has ordered White House officials to address the issue: “I have directed my <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> Economic Council to pursue means to try to further reduce these costs, and have asked the Federal Trade Commission to strike back at any market manipulation or price gouging in [the energy] sector.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，拜登还是发出了一个信号，即他认识到价格上涨是一个问题。“他在巴尔的摩港发表讲话时说：”通货膨胀伤害了美国人的钱包，扭转这一趋势是我的首要任务。他说，他已经命令白宫官员解决这个问题： “我已经指示我的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a>经济委员会已要求美国联邦贸易委员会（Federal Trade Commission）采取措施进一步降低这些成本，并要求美国联邦贸易委员会（Federal Trade Commission）对（能源）领域的任何市场操纵或价格欺诈行为进行反击。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The debate over Biden’s spending plan:</b>At the same time, many economists have pushed back against the idea that spending provided by the Build Back Better plan would be inflationary in the first place. Assuming its cost is fully or largely offset, the legislation would produce only limited inflationary effects, and perhaps none at all, depending on how it’s implemented. On top of that, the spending is spread out over 10 years, with its annual effect being only a fraction of the overall cost.</p><p><blockquote><b>关于拜登支出计划的辩论：</b>与此同时，许多经济学家反驳了“重建更好”计划提供的支出首先会导致通货膨胀的观点。假设其成本得到全部或大部分抵消，那么该立法只会产生有限的通胀影响，甚至可能根本不会产生任何影响，这取决于其实施方式。最重要的是，支出分散在10年内，其年度影响仅占总成本的一小部分。</blockquote></p><p> “The reconciliation bill would have essentially no discernible effect on the medium- or long-term path of inflation,” former White House economic adviser Jason Furman tweeted Wednesday. “That legislation should be evaluated on other criteria like what it does for opportunity, climate change &amp; long-term growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“前白宫经济顾问杰森-弗曼（Jason Furman）周三在推特上写道：”和解法案对中长期通胀路径基本上不会产生明显影响。“这项立法应该根据其他标准进行评估，比如它在机会、气候变化和长期增长方面的作用”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>More pressure on the Fed?</b>In his statement Wednesday, Biden cited the Fed’s role in fighting inflation. “I want to reemphasize my commitment to the independence of the Federal Reserve to monitor inflation, and take steps necessary to combat it,” he said.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储面临更大压力？</b>拜登在周三的声明中提到了美联储在抗击通胀方面的作用。“他说：”我想重申，我致力于美联储独立监测通货膨胀，并采取必要措施应对通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> As part of an effort to withdraw its support for the economy, the central bank announced last week that it would start winding down its $120 billion per month bond-purchasing program in November, with the goal of ending it entirely by June. But it also signaled that it had no plans to raise interest rates in the near future, given the fact that millions of Americas are still out of work. Now, with the release of another month of worse-than-expected inflation data, it could face calls to act more quickly and decisively.</p><p><blockquote>作为撤回对经济支持的努力的一部分，央行上周宣布将于11月开始逐步结束每月1200亿美元的债券购买计划，目标是在6月前完全结束该计划。但它也表示，鉴于数百万美国人仍然失业，它没有近期加息的计划。现在，随着又一个月比预期更糟糕的通胀数据的公布，它可能会面临评级采取更迅速、更果断的行动。</blockquote></p><p> “It is hard to see how the Fed will be able to stay on the sidelines much longer,” Matthew Sherwood of the Economist Intelligence <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNT\">Unit</a> told Fox Business. Katherine Judge of CIBC Economics said that the latest data “will leave more doubts in the Fed’s mind about how long they can let this inflation run.”</p><p><blockquote>“《经济学人情报》的马修-舍伍德（Matthew Sherwood）说：”很难看出美联储如何能够长期袖手旁观。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNT\">单位</a>告诉福克斯商业频道。CIBC Economics 的凯瑟琳-贾奇（Katherine Judge）表示，最新数据 “将让美联储对他们能让通胀持续多久产生更多疑虑”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Fed is in an increasingly difficult position, though, with its dual mandate of fighting inflation and promoting employment pulling in opposite directions. Persistent inflation could push the bank to raise interest rates sooner than it wants, but doing so could slow the recovery and the much-needed growth in payrolls.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美联储的处境越来越困难，其对抗通胀和促进就业的双重使命正朝着相反的方向发展。持续的通胀可能会促使央行比预期更早加息，但这样做可能会减缓经济复苏和急需的就业增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What comes next:</b>Many experts think inflation will continue to be a problem, at least in the near term. “This is going to get worse before it gets better,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton,toldThe <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POST\">Post</a>.</p><p><blockquote><b>接下来是什么：</b>许多专家认为，至少在短期内，通货膨胀仍将是一个问题。“均富会计师事务所首席经济学家黛安-斯旺克（Diane Swonk）告诉《泰晤士报》：”情况在好转之前还会变得更糟。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POST\">张贴</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, put some numbers on the gloomy outlook. “I hate to say this, but October's core CPI is just a taster,” hetweeted, referring to the core consumer price index, which rose 4.6% in October. “The next few months are going to be horrible. The y/y core rate is headed for 6-6.5% over the next three months, and it could even hit 7%.”</p><p><blockquote>High Frequency Economics 首席美国经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森 (Ian Shepherdson) 给出了一些数字来说明黯淡的前景。“我不想这么说，但 10 月份的核心 CPI 只是一个品尝者，”他指的是 10 月份上涨了 4.6% 的核心消费者价格指数。“未来几个月将是可怕的。未来三个月，同比核心利率将达到 6-6.5%，甚至可能达到 7%。”</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, Shepherdson said that he expects things to improve significantly in the medium term. “I still think as a base case that inflation will be *way* lower a year from now,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，谢泼德森表示，他预计情况将在中期内显着改善。“他说：”我仍然认为，从现在开始，一年后的通货膨胀率将低得多。</blockquote></p><p> The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WRE\">Washington</a> Post’s Heather Long was a bit more ambiguous. “No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> really knows how this is going to end,” she tweeted. “The ‘consensus’ is inflation will be very high through the winter and spring. Then start to moderate. But if Fed, [White House] &amp; Wall Street are wrong, it will get messy. And Fed will have to act (i.e. raise interest rates) in 2022.”</p><p><blockquote>这个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WRE\">华盛顿</a>《邮报》的希瑟-朗（Heather Long）则更加模棱两可。“不<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>她在推特上写道。“'共识'是，通货膨胀率将在整个冬季和春季非常高。然后开始放缓。但如果美联储、[白宫]和华尔街错了，情况就会变得一团糟。美联储将不得不在 2022 年采取行动（即加息）。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2021/11/10/Inflation-Hits-30-Year-High-Will-It-Sink-Biden-s-Agenda\">The fiscal times</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2021/11/10/Inflation-Hits-30-Year-High-Will-It-Sink-Biden-s-Agenda","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166672248","content_text":"U.S. prices rose 6.2% over the last year, the largest annual increase since 1990, the Bureau of Labor StatisticsannouncedWednesday.\nPrices rose 0.9% in October compared to September, with the cost of energy, shelter, food and cars both new and used rising significantly during the month. On a 12-month basis, the cost of fuel oil is up about 60%, utilities are up 28% and the price of bacon is up 20%.\nIn a separate report, the Labor Department said that while wages rose on a nominal basis in October, the increase in inflation was enough to produce an overall decrease of 0.5% in wages when factoring in inflation.\nThe latest data are feeding worries that inflation will continue to be higher and more persistent during the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic than some economists had predicted. Both the White House and the Federal Reserve have portrayed recent price hikes as largely “transitory,” driven by comparisons with numbers from last year’s pandemic and supply chain problems that will eventually resolve themselves, but Wednesday’s report is raising new doubts about those claims.\nA threat to Biden’s agenda — and presidency:Politically, the inflation numbers could make it more difficult for President Joe Biden to push through his $1.8 trillion Build Back Better bill, the next major plank of his economic agenda.\nSen. Joe Manchin, an essential vote in an evenly divided Senate, has repeatedly criticized the size of the bill — now reduced to about half its original size largely in response to his concerns — and on Wednesday the West Virginia Democrat indicated that the latest numbers may make him dig in on his position.\n“By all accounts, the threat posed by record inflation to the American people is not ‘transitory’ and is instead getting worse,” Manchin tweeted. “From the grocery store to the gas pump, Americans know the inflation tax is real and DC can no longer ignore the economic pain Americans feel every day.”\nBiden responded to those concerns in astatementWednesday, arguing that the recently passed infrastructure bill will help ease supply bottlenecks, while the larger social spending package still under debate would fight inflation by reducing the cost of child care, prescription drugs and health coverage.\nStill, Biden sent a signal that he recognizes that rising prices are a problem. “Inflation hurts Americans pocketbooks, and reversing this trend is a top priority for me,” he said in a speech at the port of Baltimore. He said he has ordered White House officials to address the issue: “I have directed my National Economic Council to pursue means to try to further reduce these costs, and have asked the Federal Trade Commission to strike back at any market manipulation or price gouging in [the energy] sector.”\nThe debate over Biden’s spending plan:At the same time, many economists have pushed back against the idea that spending provided by the Build Back Better plan would be inflationary in the first place. Assuming its cost is fully or largely offset, the legislation would produce only limited inflationary effects, and perhaps none at all, depending on how it’s implemented. On top of that, the spending is spread out over 10 years, with its annual effect being only a fraction of the overall cost.\n“The reconciliation bill would have essentially no discernible effect on the medium- or long-term path of inflation,” former White House economic adviser Jason Furman tweeted Wednesday. “That legislation should be evaluated on other criteria like what it does for opportunity, climate change & long-term growth.”\nMore pressure on the Fed?In his statement Wednesday, Biden cited the Fed’s role in fighting inflation. “I want to reemphasize my commitment to the independence of the Federal Reserve to monitor inflation, and take steps necessary to combat it,” he said.\nAs part of an effort to withdraw its support for the economy, the central bank announced last week that it would start winding down its $120 billion per month bond-purchasing program in November, with the goal of ending it entirely by June. But it also signaled that it had no plans to raise interest rates in the near future, given the fact that millions of Americas are still out of work. Now, with the release of another month of worse-than-expected inflation data, it could face calls to act more quickly and decisively.\n“It is hard to see how the Fed will be able to stay on the sidelines much longer,” Matthew Sherwood of the Economist Intelligence Unit told Fox Business. Katherine Judge of CIBC Economics said that the latest data “will leave more doubts in the Fed’s mind about how long they can let this inflation run.”\nThe Fed is in an increasingly difficult position, though, with its dual mandate of fighting inflation and promoting employment pulling in opposite directions. Persistent inflation could push the bank to raise interest rates sooner than it wants, but doing so could slow the recovery and the much-needed growth in payrolls.\nWhat comes next:Many experts think inflation will continue to be a problem, at least in the near term. “This is going to get worse before it gets better,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton,toldThe Washington Post.\nIan Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, put some numbers on the gloomy outlook. “I hate to say this, but October's core CPI is just a taster,” hetweeted, referring to the core consumer price index, which rose 4.6% in October. “The next few months are going to be horrible. The y/y core rate is headed for 6-6.5% over the next three months, and it could even hit 7%.”\nAt the same time, Shepherdson said that he expects things to improve significantly in the medium term. “I still think as a base case that inflation will be *way* lower a year from now,” he said.\nThe Washington Post’s Heather Long was a bit more ambiguous. “No one really knows how this is going to end,” she tweeted. “The ‘consensus’ is inflation will be very high through the winter and spring. Then start to moderate. But if Fed, [White House] & Wall Street are wrong, it will get messy. And Fed will have to act (i.e. raise interest rates) in 2022.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":878523350,"gmtCreate":1637209005599,"gmtModify":1637209005599,"author":{"id":"4099791290908220","authorId":"4099791290908220","name":"wat3ver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e222df3efb05da19ab1fe794f91b961","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099791290908220","authorIdStr":"4099791290908220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Inflation is eroding the value of USD. The only hedge against that is BTC","listText":"Inflation is eroding the value of USD. The only hedge against that is BTC","text":"Inflation is eroding the value of USD. The only hedge against that is BTC","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878523350","repostId":"2184510828","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600492433,"gmtCreate":1638183503782,"gmtModify":1638183503915,"author":{"id":"4099791290908220","authorId":"4099791290908220","name":"wat3ver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e222df3efb05da19ab1fe794f91b961","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099791290908220","authorIdStr":"4099791290908220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"This is the best buying opportunity&nbsp;","listText":"This is the best buying opportunity&nbsp;","text":"This is the best buying opportunity","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600492433","repostId":"2187329491","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2187329491","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1638140520,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2187329491?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-29 07:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀可能对周一股市交易意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2187329491","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.What isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do","content":"<p>OMG, omicron!</p><p><blockquote>天哪，奥密克戎!</blockquote></p><p> The new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>世界卫生组织宣布的新型、快速传播的 B.1.1.529 冠状病毒株为令人担忧的变种，在黑色星期五扰乱了全球市场，引发了人们对未来一周经济和华尔街表现的担忧，此前抛售抹去了标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数 11 月份的涨幅，并导致道琼斯工业平均指数创下 2020 年 10 月 28 日以来的最大单日跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> WHO said that the omicron variant, which has been detected in Belgium, Israel, and Hong Kong and was first identified in southern parts of Africa, is more transmissible than the delta strain that is currently dominant world-wide, and other variants.</p><p><blockquote>世卫组织表示，已在比利时、以色列和中国香港发现并首次在非洲南部发现的奥密克戎变种比目前在全球占主导地位的德尔塔毒株和其他变种更具传染性。</blockquote></p><p> The emergence of the new strain led to the White House announcing restrictions, starting on Monday, on travel for non-U.S. citizens and residents from South Africa, as well as from Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi, joining the European Union, the U.K., Singapore and Japan, which also announced similar travel bans.</p><p><blockquote>新毒株的出现导致白宫宣布从周一开始限制来自南非以及博茨瓦纳、津巴布韦、纳米比亚、莱索托、斯威士兰、莫桑比克和马拉维的非美国公民和居民的旅行，加入了欧盟、英国、新加坡和日本的行列，这些国家也宣布了类似的旅行禁令。</blockquote></p><p> The market selloff during the abbreviated Black Friday session and the commensurate flight to assets that investors hope will perform better amid fresh mobility restrictions, helped to overshadow the usual focus on retail, on a day associated with heavy consumer spending ahead of the Christmas holiday. Friday's downturn also offered a crystal clear reminder that the path of the market and economy hinges on the course of COVID.</p><p><blockquote>黑色星期五缩短交易时段期间的市场抛售，以及投资者希望在新的流动性限制下表现更好的资产的相应撤离，帮助掩盖了人们通常对零售业的关注，而这一天与圣诞节假期前消费者支出大量相关。周五的低迷也清楚地提醒人们，市场和经济的道路取决于新冠疫情的进程。</blockquote></p><p> What isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do lasting harm to the complexion of the market. Omicron comes at a fragile time for optimistic investors, with bears pointing to lofty stock market valuations, inflation worries and global economic growth concerns as reasons to expect a drawdown in equities that have managed to avoid a decline from a peak of more than 5%.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚的是，最新的冠状病毒发展是否会对市场造成持久损害。对于乐观的投资者来说，奥密克戎正值脆弱时期，空头指出，股市估值过高、通胀担忧和全球经济增长担忧是预期成功避免从 5% 以上峰值下跌的股市将下跌的原因。</blockquote></p><p> In theory, Friday's post-Thanksgiving environment is traditionally lightly traded and therefore more susceptible to outsize price swings.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，周五感恩节后的环境传统上交易清淡，因此更容易受到价格大幅波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq saw its lowest volume of the year on Black Friday, with 3.479 billion shares trading hands, well below the year-to-date average of 5.099 billion. The total composite volume, including trading on Intercontinental Exchange&nbsp;-owned NYSE platforms, was 8.760 billion, compared with an year-to-date average of 11.196 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克在黑色星期五创下今年最低成交量，成交量为 34.79 亿股，远低于年初至今 50.99 亿股的平均水平。根据道琼斯市场数据，包括洲际交易所旗下纽约证券交易所平台上的交易在内的总综合交易量为 87.60 亿美元，而年初至今的平均水平为 111.96 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Still, only time will tell whether the reaction to omicron is a textbook, knee-jerk selloff or something more sinister.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，只有时间才能证明对奥密克戎的反应是教科书式的、下意识的抛售还是更险恶的东西。</blockquote></p><p> MarketWatch's Bill Watts wrote, citing Friday research from Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, that the next level of support to watch for the S&amp;P 500 after closing at 4,594,62 on Friday is at 4,570, the 50-day exponential average; 4,566, the 38.2% retracement of the rally; and 4,550, a previous high from early September.</p><p><blockquote>MarketWatch 的 Bill Watts 援引 Arbeter Investments 的 Mark Arbeter 周五的研究写道，标普500周五收于 4,594.62 点后，下一个值得关注的支撑位是 4,570 点，即 50 天指数平均线；4,566，反弹38.2%回撤；4,550，创9月初以来的新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"It is too early to know to what extent the new variant will affect economies and markets, and Friday's market moves have probably been exacerbated by reduced liquidity owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the risk that further bad news emerges over the weekend,\" writes Jonas Goltermann senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday research note.</p><p><blockquote>“现在知道新变种将在多大程度上影响经济和市场还为时过早，周五的市场走势可能会因美国感恩节假期导致流动性减少以及周末出现更多坏消息的风险而加剧，”凯投宏观高级市场经济学家乔纳斯·戈尔特曼在周五的研究报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> J.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog writes that things could get dicey if the S&amp;P 500 is driven below 4,500, with little support beneath that point.</p><p><blockquote>J.C。全明星图表博客的Parets写道，如果标普500跌破4500点，事情可能会变得危险，低于4500点几乎没有支撑。</blockquote></p><p> \"You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&amp;P 500, nothing good happens below 4500,\" he writes in a Friday blog.</p><p><blockquote>“你知道父母总是告诉你午夜之后不会有什么好事发生吗？在标普500，4500 以下不会有什么好事发生，”他在周五的博客中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfdc3ebd8825870bc713469baf0d1b2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>All Star Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>所有星图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted,\" Parets writes.</p><p><blockquote>帕雷特写道：“如果我们低于这个水平，那么可能会出现更大的问题，18 个月来最严重的现金头寸将是合理的。”</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts say that there are legitimate reasons for unease, on the public health front.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析人士说，在公共卫生方面，有合理的理由感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fact that this variant seems to be spreading much faster than previous versions (including the Delta variant) bears very careful monitoring,\" wrote Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, in a research note. There are some questions about the effectiveness of existing COVID vaccines from Pfizer&nbsp;and Moderna&nbsp;due to the number of mutations that the omicron variant bears on the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus targeted by COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷全球首席投资官 Michael Strobaek 在一份研究报告中写道：“这种变种的传播速度似乎比之前的版本（包括德尔塔变异毒株）快得多，这一事实需要非常仔细的监控。”由于奥密克戎变体在刺突蛋白上携带的突变数量，辉瑞和Moderna现有COVID疫苗的有效性存在一些问题。刺突蛋白是新冠肺炎疫苗针对的病毒部分。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst at Jefferies led by analyst Sean Darby note that risk-appetite was already edging lower before Black Friday and the selloff may have been a \"tipping point\" in favor of caution and risk moderation.</p><p><blockquote>由分析师肖恩·达比 (Sean Darby) 领导的杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 分析师指出，在黑色星期五之前，风险偏好已经在逐渐下降，抛售可能是有利于谨慎和风险适度的“临界点”。</blockquote></p><p> \"The news of a new or not so new COVID variant spreading in Southern Africaappears to have been the tipping point in altering risk appetite in the past 24 hours,\" the Jefferies analyst wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞分析师写道：“一种新的或不那么新的新冠病毒变种在南部非洲传播的消息似乎是过去 24 小时内改变风险偏好的转折点。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"However, there has been a sea change in risk variables over the past month -- anincreasing number of 'tailed treasury auctions', declining equity market breadth andthe imperceptible change in US retail appetite that seems to have gone unnoticed.Positioning in global equities is one of the most aggressive in US history,\" according to Darby and his colleagues.</p><p><blockquote>“然而，过去一个月风险变量发生了巨大变化——‘尾随国债拍卖’数量增加、股票市场广度下降以及美国零售偏好似乎没有被注意到的不易察觉的变化。全球股市的定位是美国历史上最激进的股票之一，”达比和他的同事表示。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies research suggests that investors are now expecting that the Federal Reserve, under renominated Chairman Jerome Powell, will hasten the pace of reductions in the central bank's asset purchases, which will lead to tighter financial conditions that could prove unfavorable to risky assets. Goldman Sachs sees the Fed stepping up tapering to $30 billion a month from a reduction of $15 billion, and estimates three policy interest rate increases in 2022, up from two.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞的研究表明，投资者现在预计，在重新提名的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的领导下，美联储将加快减少央行资产购买的步伐，这将导致金融状况收紧，这可能不利于风险资产。高盛预计美联储将从每月 150 亿美元缩减规模加大至 300 亿美元，并预计 2022 年将加息三次，高于两次。</blockquote></p><p> \"Ultimately the Sharpe ratio -- a measure of return per unit of risk -- isturning for global equities. We expect the gap between the performance of risky and safe haven assets to diminish,\" Jefferies wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞写道：“最终，夏普比率（衡量每单位风险回报的指标）将适用于全球股市。我们预计风险资产和避险资产的表现之间的差距将会缩小。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2b6cd6fadb4dd80d04e06539404155\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>via Jefferies</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过杰富瑞</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The situation could still prove a buying opportunity for bold investors, however.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于大胆的投资者来说，这种情况仍然可能是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> Strobaek wrote that \"risk assets such as equities are likely to give back some strength, but we would see this as an opportunity in selective and specific areas.\"</p><p><blockquote>斯特罗贝克写道，“股票等风险资产可能会恢复一些实力，但我们将此视为选择性和特定领域的机会。”</blockquote></p><p> \"At this point, we reiterate our assessment from the latest Investment Committee report, i.e. keeping equities at a small overweight in portfolios and government bonds at an underweight,\" the Credit Suisse CIO writes.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席信息官写道：“在这一点上，我们重申我们对最新投资委员会报告的评估，即将投资组合中的股票保持在较小的跑赢大盘，将政府债券保持在跑输大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at Citigroup also said that \"we would buy into any dip,\" noting that its bearish checklist doesn't indicate significant red flags. \"Valuations look stretched, but other factors (credit spreads, fund flows) are not yet especially extended,\" Citi writes, with 7.5 out of 18 red flags triggered in its measures of global markets while the U.S. is seeing 9.5 of 18.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团分析师还表示，“我们会在任何下跌时买入”，并指出其看跌清单并未显示出重大危险信号。花旗写道：“估值看起来捉襟见肘，但其他因素（信用利差、资金流动）尚未特别扩大。”花旗在衡量全球市场时触发了 18 个危险信号中的 7.5 个，而美国则触发了 18 个危险信号中的 9.5 个。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4fba734970a8c977a13d6972402b65f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Citi Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>花旗研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in Port Chester, NY says that the end-of-week selling may have resulted in a Black Friday sale for stock-market investors.</p><p><blockquote>纽约州切斯特港 AXS Investments 首席执行官格雷格·巴苏克 (Greg Bassuk) 表示，周末的抛售可能导致股市投资者遭遇黑色星期五抛售。</blockquote></p><p> \"Black Friday is typically the unofficial kick-off to the annual holiday shopping season. But we believe the real shopping is for stocks that are beaten-down from Covid infection spikes, inflation fears, and supply chain woes, but that still possess strong fundamentals that will drive their gains as the economy ultimately reopens,\" he wrote</p><p><blockquote>“黑色星期五通常是一年一度假日购物季的非官方开始。但我们认为，真正的购物是针对那些因新冠感染激增、通胀担忧和供应链困境而遭受重创，但仍然拥有强劲基本面的股票，随着经济最终重新开放，这将推动它们上涨，”他写道</blockquote></p><p> That said, some analysts note that the lockdowns playing out in Europe and the spread of COVID, even before the omicron declaration, were reasons to be cautious since they will impact the global growth outlook.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，一些分析师指出，即使在奥密克戎宣言发表之前，欧洲的封锁和新冠病毒的传播也是保持谨慎的理由，因为它们将影响全球增长前景。</blockquote></p><p> Either way, it seems that a degree of caveat emptor may be in force next week and could color trading for the remainder of the 2021.</p><p><blockquote>无论哪种方式，买家似乎都可能在下周生效，并可能影响 2021 年剩余时间的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Trading on Monday will help determine whether bullishness persists or if a bearish phase is crystallizing.</p><p><blockquote>周一的交易将有助于确定看涨情绪是否持续，或者看跌阶段是否正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a week focused on the state of employment, with the November U.S. jobs report due at the end of the week and Powell and others offering their final thoughts before a media blackout period starting ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of 2021 on Dec. 14-15.</p><p><blockquote>这将是关注就业状况的一周，11月美国就业报告将于本周末发布，鲍威尔和其他人将在12月14日至15日联邦公开市场委员会2021年最后一次会议之前的媒体封锁期开始之前提供他们的最终想法。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀可能对周一股市交易意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's what the Black Friday carnage may mean for the stock market's trade Monday, analysts say<blockquote>分析师表示，黑色星期五大屠杀可能对周一股市交易意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-29 07:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>OMG, omicron!</p><p><blockquote>天哪，奥密克戎!</blockquote></p><p> The new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&amp;P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>世界卫生组织宣布的新型、快速传播的 B.1.1.529 冠状病毒株为令人担忧的变种，在黑色星期五扰乱了全球市场，引发了人们对未来一周经济和华尔街表现的担忧，此前抛售抹去了标普500指数和纳斯达克综合指数 11 月份的涨幅，并导致道琼斯工业平均指数创下 2020 年 10 月 28 日以来的最大单日跌幅。</blockquote></p><p> WHO said that the omicron variant, which has been detected in Belgium, Israel, and Hong Kong and was first identified in southern parts of Africa, is more transmissible than the delta strain that is currently dominant world-wide, and other variants.</p><p><blockquote>世卫组织表示，已在比利时、以色列和中国香港发现并首次在非洲南部发现的奥密克戎变种比目前在全球占主导地位的德尔塔毒株和其他变种更具传染性。</blockquote></p><p> The emergence of the new strain led to the White House announcing restrictions, starting on Monday, on travel for non-U.S. citizens and residents from South Africa, as well as from Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi, joining the European Union, the U.K., Singapore and Japan, which also announced similar travel bans.</p><p><blockquote>新毒株的出现导致白宫宣布从周一开始限制来自南非以及博茨瓦纳、津巴布韦、纳米比亚、莱索托、斯威士兰、莫桑比克和马拉维的非美国公民和居民的旅行，加入了欧盟、英国、新加坡和日本的行列，这些国家也宣布了类似的旅行禁令。</blockquote></p><p> The market selloff during the abbreviated Black Friday session and the commensurate flight to assets that investors hope will perform better amid fresh mobility restrictions, helped to overshadow the usual focus on retail, on a day associated with heavy consumer spending ahead of the Christmas holiday. Friday's downturn also offered a crystal clear reminder that the path of the market and economy hinges on the course of COVID.</p><p><blockquote>黑色星期五缩短交易时段期间的市场抛售，以及投资者希望在新的流动性限制下表现更好的资产的相应撤离，帮助掩盖了人们通常对零售业的关注，而这一天与圣诞节假期前消费者支出大量相关。周五的低迷也清楚地提醒人们，市场和经济的道路取决于新冠疫情的进程。</blockquote></p><p> What isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do lasting harm to the complexion of the market. Omicron comes at a fragile time for optimistic investors, with bears pointing to lofty stock market valuations, inflation worries and global economic growth concerns as reasons to expect a drawdown in equities that have managed to avoid a decline from a peak of more than 5%.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚的是，最新的冠状病毒发展是否会对市场造成持久损害。对于乐观的投资者来说，奥密克戎正值脆弱时期，空头指出，股市估值过高、通胀担忧和全球经济增长担忧是预期成功避免从 5% 以上峰值下跌的股市将下跌的原因。</blockquote></p><p> In theory, Friday's post-Thanksgiving environment is traditionally lightly traded and therefore more susceptible to outsize price swings.</p><p><blockquote>理论上，周五感恩节后的环境传统上交易清淡，因此更容易受到价格大幅波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The Nasdaq saw its lowest volume of the year on Black Friday, with 3.479 billion shares trading hands, well below the year-to-date average of 5.099 billion. The total composite volume, including trading on Intercontinental Exchange&nbsp;-owned NYSE platforms, was 8.760 billion, compared with an year-to-date average of 11.196 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.</p><p><blockquote>纳斯达克在黑色星期五创下今年最低成交量，成交量为 34.79 亿股，远低于年初至今 50.99 亿股的平均水平。根据道琼斯市场数据，包括洲际交易所旗下纽约证券交易所平台上的交易在内的总综合交易量为 87.60 亿美元，而年初至今的平均水平为 111.96 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Still, only time will tell whether the reaction to omicron is a textbook, knee-jerk selloff or something more sinister.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，只有时间才能证明对奥密克戎的反应是教科书式的、下意识的抛售还是更险恶的东西。</blockquote></p><p> MarketWatch's Bill Watts wrote, citing Friday research from Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, that the next level of support to watch for the S&amp;P 500 after closing at 4,594,62 on Friday is at 4,570, the 50-day exponential average; 4,566, the 38.2% retracement of the rally; and 4,550, a previous high from early September.</p><p><blockquote>MarketWatch 的 Bill Watts 援引 Arbeter Investments 的 Mark Arbeter 周五的研究写道，标普500周五收于 4,594.62 点后，下一个值得关注的支撑位是 4,570 点，即 50 天指数平均线；4,566，反弹38.2%回撤；4,550，创9月初以来的新高。</blockquote></p><p> \"It is too early to know to what extent the new variant will affect economies and markets, and Friday's market moves have probably been exacerbated by reduced liquidity owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the risk that further bad news emerges over the weekend,\" writes Jonas Goltermann senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday research note.</p><p><blockquote>“现在知道新变种将在多大程度上影响经济和市场还为时过早，周五的市场走势可能会因美国感恩节假期导致流动性减少以及周末出现更多坏消息的风险而加剧，”凯投宏观高级市场经济学家乔纳斯·戈尔特曼在周五的研究报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> J.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog writes that things could get dicey if the S&amp;P 500 is driven below 4,500, with little support beneath that point.</p><p><blockquote>J.C。全明星图表博客的Parets写道，如果标普500跌破4500点，事情可能会变得危险，低于4500点几乎没有支撑。</blockquote></p><p> \"You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&amp;P 500, nothing good happens below 4500,\" he writes in a Friday blog.</p><p><blockquote>“你知道父母总是告诉你午夜之后不会有什么好事发生吗？在标普500，4500 以下不会有什么好事发生，”他在周五的博客中写道。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccfdc3ebd8825870bc713469baf0d1b2\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>All Star Charts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>所有星图</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted,\" Parets writes.</p><p><blockquote>帕雷特写道：“如果我们低于这个水平，那么可能会出现更大的问题，18 个月来最严重的现金头寸将是合理的。”</blockquote></p><p> Some analysts say that there are legitimate reasons for unease, on the public health front.</p><p><blockquote>一些分析人士说，在公共卫生方面，有合理的理由感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> \"The fact that this variant seems to be spreading much faster than previous versions (including the Delta variant) bears very careful monitoring,\" wrote Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, in a research note. There are some questions about the effectiveness of existing COVID vaccines from Pfizer&nbsp;and Moderna&nbsp;due to the number of mutations that the omicron variant bears on the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus targeted by COVID-19 vaccines.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷全球首席投资官 Michael Strobaek 在一份研究报告中写道：“这种变种的传播速度似乎比之前的版本（包括德尔塔变异毒株）快得多，这一事实需要非常仔细的监控。”由于奥密克戎变体在刺突蛋白上携带的突变数量，辉瑞和Moderna现有COVID疫苗的有效性存在一些问题。刺突蛋白是新冠肺炎疫苗针对的病毒部分。</blockquote></p><p> Analyst at Jefferies led by analyst Sean Darby note that risk-appetite was already edging lower before Black Friday and the selloff may have been a \"tipping point\" in favor of caution and risk moderation.</p><p><blockquote>由分析师肖恩·达比 (Sean Darby) 领导的杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 分析师指出，在黑色星期五之前，风险偏好已经在逐渐下降，抛售可能是有利于谨慎和风险适度的“临界点”。</blockquote></p><p> \"The news of a new or not so new COVID variant spreading in Southern Africaappears to have been the tipping point in altering risk appetite in the past 24 hours,\" the Jefferies analyst wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞分析师写道：“一种新的或不那么新的新冠病毒变种在南部非洲传播的消息似乎是过去 24 小时内改变风险偏好的转折点。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> \"However, there has been a sea change in risk variables over the past month -- anincreasing number of 'tailed treasury auctions', declining equity market breadth andthe imperceptible change in US retail appetite that seems to have gone unnoticed.Positioning in global equities is one of the most aggressive in US history,\" according to Darby and his colleagues.</p><p><blockquote>“然而，过去一个月风险变量发生了巨大变化——‘尾随国债拍卖’数量增加、股票市场广度下降以及美国零售偏好似乎没有被注意到的不易察觉的变化。全球股市的定位是美国历史上最激进的股票之一，”达比和他的同事表示。</blockquote></p><p> Jefferies research suggests that investors are now expecting that the Federal Reserve, under renominated Chairman Jerome Powell, will hasten the pace of reductions in the central bank's asset purchases, which will lead to tighter financial conditions that could prove unfavorable to risky assets. Goldman Sachs sees the Fed stepping up tapering to $30 billion a month from a reduction of $15 billion, and estimates three policy interest rate increases in 2022, up from two.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞的研究表明，投资者现在预计，在重新提名的主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的领导下，美联储将加快减少央行资产购买的步伐，这将导致金融状况收紧，这可能不利于风险资产。高盛预计美联储将从每月 150 亿美元缩减规模加大至 300 亿美元，并预计 2022 年将加息三次，高于两次。</blockquote></p><p> \"Ultimately the Sharpe ratio -- a measure of return per unit of risk -- isturning for global equities. We expect the gap between the performance of risky and safe haven assets to diminish,\" Jefferies wrote.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞写道：“最终，夏普比率（衡量每单位风险回报的指标）将适用于全球股市。我们预计风险资产和避险资产的表现之间的差距将会缩小。”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a2b6cd6fadb4dd80d04e06539404155\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>via Jefferies</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>通过杰富瑞</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The situation could still prove a buying opportunity for bold investors, however.</p><p><blockquote>然而，对于大胆的投资者来说，这种情况仍然可能是一个买入机会。</blockquote></p><p> Strobaek wrote that \"risk assets such as equities are likely to give back some strength, but we would see this as an opportunity in selective and specific areas.\"</p><p><blockquote>斯特罗贝克写道，“股票等风险资产可能会恢复一些实力，但我们将此视为选择性和特定领域的机会。”</blockquote></p><p> \"At this point, we reiterate our assessment from the latest Investment Committee report, i.e. keeping equities at a small overweight in portfolios and government bonds at an underweight,\" the Credit Suisse CIO writes.</p><p><blockquote>瑞士信贷首席信息官写道：“在这一点上，我们重申我们对最新投资委员会报告的评估，即将投资组合中的股票保持在较小的跑赢大盘，将政府债券保持在跑输大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> Analysts at Citigroup also said that \"we would buy into any dip,\" noting that its bearish checklist doesn't indicate significant red flags. \"Valuations look stretched, but other factors (credit spreads, fund flows) are not yet especially extended,\" Citi writes, with 7.5 out of 18 red flags triggered in its measures of global markets while the U.S. is seeing 9.5 of 18.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团分析师还表示，“我们会在任何下跌时买入”，并指出其看跌清单并未显示出重大危险信号。花旗写道：“估值看起来捉襟见肘，但其他因素（信用利差、资金流动）尚未特别扩大。”花旗在衡量全球市场时触发了 18 个危险信号中的 7.5 个，而美国则触发了 18 个危险信号中的 9.5 个。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4fba734970a8c977a13d6972402b65f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Citi Research</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>花旗研究</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Greg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in Port Chester, NY says that the end-of-week selling may have resulted in a Black Friday sale for stock-market investors.</p><p><blockquote>纽约州切斯特港 AXS Investments 首席执行官格雷格·巴苏克 (Greg Bassuk) 表示，周末的抛售可能导致股市投资者遭遇黑色星期五抛售。</blockquote></p><p> \"Black Friday is typically the unofficial kick-off to the annual holiday shopping season. But we believe the real shopping is for stocks that are beaten-down from Covid infection spikes, inflation fears, and supply chain woes, but that still possess strong fundamentals that will drive their gains as the economy ultimately reopens,\" he wrote</p><p><blockquote>“黑色星期五通常是一年一度假日购物季的非官方开始。但我们认为，真正的购物是针对那些因新冠感染激增、通胀担忧和供应链困境而遭受重创，但仍然拥有强劲基本面的股票，随着经济最终重新开放，这将推动它们上涨，”他写道</blockquote></p><p> That said, some analysts note that the lockdowns playing out in Europe and the spread of COVID, even before the omicron declaration, were reasons to be cautious since they will impact the global growth outlook.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，一些分析师指出，即使在奥密克戎宣言发表之前，欧洲的封锁和新冠病毒的传播也是保持谨慎的理由，因为它们将影响全球增长前景。</blockquote></p><p> Either way, it seems that a degree of caveat emptor may be in force next week and could color trading for the remainder of the 2021.</p><p><blockquote>无论哪种方式，买家似乎都可能在下周生效，并可能影响 2021 年剩余时间的交易。</blockquote></p><p> Trading on Monday will help determine whether bullishness persists or if a bearish phase is crystallizing.</p><p><blockquote>周一的交易将有助于确定看涨情绪是否持续，或者看跌阶段是否正在形成。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a week focused on the state of employment, with the November U.S. jobs report due at the end of the week and Powell and others offering their final thoughts before a media blackout period starting ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of 2021 on Dec. 14-15.</p><p><blockquote>这将是关注就业状况的一周，11月美国就业报告将于本周末发布，鲍威尔和其他人将在12月14日至15日联邦公开市场委员会2021年最后一次会议之前的媒体封锁期开始之前提供他们的最终想法。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-black-friday-carnage-may-mean-for-the-stock-markets-trade-monday-analysts-say-11638021516?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","ICE":"洲际交易所","PFE":"辉瑞","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4112":"金融交易所和数据","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4007":"制药"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-the-black-friday-carnage-may-mean-for-the-stock-markets-trade-monday-analysts-say-11638021516?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2187329491","content_text":"OMG, omicron!\nThe new, fast-spreading B.1.1.529 strain of coronavirus declared a variant of concern by the World Health Organization roiled global markets on Black Friday, raising concerns about how the economy and Wall Street may perform in the coming week, following a selloff that wiped out November gains for the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite and sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average down by the most in a day since Oct. 28, 2020.\nWHO said that the omicron variant, which has been detected in Belgium, Israel, and Hong Kong and was first identified in southern parts of Africa, is more transmissible than the delta strain that is currently dominant world-wide, and other variants.\nThe emergence of the new strain led to the White House announcing restrictions, starting on Monday, on travel for non-U.S. citizens and residents from South Africa, as well as from Botswana, Zimbabwe, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini, Mozambique, and Malawi, joining the European Union, the U.K., Singapore and Japan, which also announced similar travel bans.\nThe market selloff during the abbreviated Black Friday session and the commensurate flight to assets that investors hope will perform better amid fresh mobility restrictions, helped to overshadow the usual focus on retail, on a day associated with heavy consumer spending ahead of the Christmas holiday. Friday's downturn also offered a crystal clear reminder that the path of the market and economy hinges on the course of COVID.\nWhat isn't clear is whether the latest coronavirus development will do lasting harm to the complexion of the market. Omicron comes at a fragile time for optimistic investors, with bears pointing to lofty stock market valuations, inflation worries and global economic growth concerns as reasons to expect a drawdown in equities that have managed to avoid a decline from a peak of more than 5%.\nIn theory, Friday's post-Thanksgiving environment is traditionally lightly traded and therefore more susceptible to outsize price swings.\nThe Nasdaq saw its lowest volume of the year on Black Friday, with 3.479 billion shares trading hands, well below the year-to-date average of 5.099 billion. The total composite volume, including trading on Intercontinental Exchange -owned NYSE platforms, was 8.760 billion, compared with an year-to-date average of 11.196 billion, according to Dow Jones Market Data.\nStill, only time will tell whether the reaction to omicron is a textbook, knee-jerk selloff or something more sinister.\nMarketWatch's Bill Watts wrote, citing Friday research from Mark Arbeter of Arbeter Investments, that the next level of support to watch for the S&P 500 after closing at 4,594,62 on Friday is at 4,570, the 50-day exponential average; 4,566, the 38.2% retracement of the rally; and 4,550, a previous high from early September.\n\"It is too early to know to what extent the new variant will affect economies and markets, and Friday's market moves have probably been exacerbated by reduced liquidity owing to the US Thanksgiving holiday, and the risk that further bad news emerges over the weekend,\" writes Jonas Goltermann senior markets economist at Capital Economics, in a Friday research note.\nJ.C. Parets of the All Star Charts blog writes that things could get dicey if the S&P 500 is driven below 4,500, with little support beneath that point.\n\"You know how parents always tell you nothing good ever happens after midnight? Well in the S&P 500, nothing good happens below 4500,\" he writes in a Friday blog.\nAll Star Charts\n\"If we're below that then there is a probably a much bigger problem out there, and the heaviest cash positions in 18 months would be warranted,\" Parets writes.\nSome analysts say that there are legitimate reasons for unease, on the public health front.\n\"The fact that this variant seems to be spreading much faster than previous versions (including the Delta variant) bears very careful monitoring,\" wrote Michael Strobaek, global chief investment officer at Credit Suisse, in a research note. There are some questions about the effectiveness of existing COVID vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna due to the number of mutations that the omicron variant bears on the spike protein. The spike protein is the part of the virus targeted by COVID-19 vaccines.\nAnalyst at Jefferies led by analyst Sean Darby note that risk-appetite was already edging lower before Black Friday and the selloff may have been a \"tipping point\" in favor of caution and risk moderation.\n\"The news of a new or not so new COVID variant spreading in Southern Africaappears to have been the tipping point in altering risk appetite in the past 24 hours,\" the Jefferies analyst wrote.\n\"However, there has been a sea change in risk variables over the past month -- anincreasing number of 'tailed treasury auctions', declining equity market breadth andthe imperceptible change in US retail appetite that seems to have gone unnoticed.Positioning in global equities is one of the most aggressive in US history,\" according to Darby and his colleagues.\nJefferies research suggests that investors are now expecting that the Federal Reserve, under renominated Chairman Jerome Powell, will hasten the pace of reductions in the central bank's asset purchases, which will lead to tighter financial conditions that could prove unfavorable to risky assets. Goldman Sachs sees the Fed stepping up tapering to $30 billion a month from a reduction of $15 billion, and estimates three policy interest rate increases in 2022, up from two.\n\"Ultimately the Sharpe ratio -- a measure of return per unit of risk -- isturning for global equities. We expect the gap between the performance of risky and safe haven assets to diminish,\" Jefferies wrote.\nvia Jefferies\nThe situation could still prove a buying opportunity for bold investors, however.\nStrobaek wrote that \"risk assets such as equities are likely to give back some strength, but we would see this as an opportunity in selective and specific areas.\"\n\"At this point, we reiterate our assessment from the latest Investment Committee report, i.e. keeping equities at a small overweight in portfolios and government bonds at an underweight,\" the Credit Suisse CIO writes.\nAnalysts at Citigroup also said that \"we would buy into any dip,\" noting that its bearish checklist doesn't indicate significant red flags. \"Valuations look stretched, but other factors (credit spreads, fund flows) are not yet especially extended,\" Citi writes, with 7.5 out of 18 red flags triggered in its measures of global markets while the U.S. is seeing 9.5 of 18.\nCiti Research\nGreg Bassuk, CEO at AXS Investments in Port Chester, NY says that the end-of-week selling may have resulted in a Black Friday sale for stock-market investors.\n\"Black Friday is typically the unofficial kick-off to the annual holiday shopping season. But we believe the real shopping is for stocks that are beaten-down from Covid infection spikes, inflation fears, and supply chain woes, but that still possess strong fundamentals that will drive their gains as the economy ultimately reopens,\" he wrote\nThat said, some analysts note that the lockdowns playing out in Europe and the spread of COVID, even before the omicron declaration, were reasons to be cautious since they will impact the global growth outlook.\nEither way, it seems that a degree of caveat emptor may be in force next week and could color trading for the remainder of the 2021.\nTrading on Monday will help determine whether bullishness persists or if a bearish phase is crystallizing.\nIt will be a week focused on the state of employment, with the November U.S. jobs report due at the end of the week and Powell and others offering their final thoughts before a media blackout period starting ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee's final meeting of 2021 on Dec. 14-15.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"END":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"ICE":0.9,"PFE":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":600055818,"gmtCreate":1638018758397,"gmtModify":1638018758397,"author":{"id":"4099791290908220","authorId":"4099791290908220","name":"wat3ver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e222df3efb05da19ab1fe794f91b961","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099791290908220","authorIdStr":"4099791290908220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Best time to buy.","listText":"Best time to buy.","text":"Best time to buy.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/600055818","repostId":"2186344334","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3810,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871837908,"gmtCreate":1637048999805,"gmtModify":1637048999856,"author":{"id":"4099791290908220","authorId":"4099791290908220","name":"wat3ver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e222df3efb05da19ab1fe794f91b961","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099791290908220","authorIdStr":"4099791290908220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"To the moon","listText":"To the moon","text":"To the moon","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871837908","repostId":"2183112076","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874543064,"gmtCreate":1637804672950,"gmtModify":1637804673002,"author":{"id":"4099791290908220","authorId":"4099791290908220","name":"wat3ver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e222df3efb05da19ab1fe794f91b961","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099791290908220","authorIdStr":"4099791290908220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874543064","repostId":"2186157368","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2387,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":874548338,"gmtCreate":1637804854714,"gmtModify":1637804876571,"author":{"id":"4099791290908220","authorId":"4099791290908220","name":"wat3ver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e222df3efb05da19ab1fe794f91b961","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099791290908220","authorIdStr":"4099791290908220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Time to add for long term hold","listText":"Time to add for long term hold","text":"Time to add for long term hold","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/874548338","repostId":"1118916839","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879177534,"gmtCreate":1636697378521,"gmtModify":1636698082568,"author":{"id":"4099791290908220","authorId":"4099791290908220","name":"wat3ver","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e222df3efb05da19ab1fe794f91b961","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4099791290908220","authorIdStr":"4099791290908220"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy btc","listText":"Buy btc","text":"Buy btc","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879177534","repostId":"1166672248","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166672248","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636688711,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166672248?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-12 11:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation Hits a 30-Year High. Will It Sink Biden’s Agenda?<blockquote>通货膨胀率创30年来新高。这会破坏拜登的议程吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166672248","media":"The fiscal times","summary":"U.S. prices rose 6.2% over the last year, the largest annual increase since 1990, the Bureau of Labo","content":"<p>U.S. prices rose 6.2% over the last year, the largest annual increase since 1990, the Bureau of Labor StatisticsannouncedWednesday.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工统计局周三宣布，去年美国物价上涨 6.2%，为 1990 年以来最大年度涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Prices rose 0.9% in October compared to September, with the cost of energy, shelter, food and cars both new and used rising significantly during the month. On a 12-month basis, the cost of fuel oil is up about 60%, utilities are up 28% and the price of bacon is up 20%.</p><p><blockquote>10 月份价格比 9 月份上涨 0.9%，能源、住所、食品和新车和二手车的成本在当月大幅上涨。按12个月计算，燃油价格上涨了约60%，公用事业价格上涨了28%，培根价格上涨了20%。</blockquote></p><p> In a separate report, the Labor Department said that while wages rose on a nominal basis in October, the increase in inflation was enough to produce an overall decrease of 0.5% in wages when factoring in inflation.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部在另一份报告中表示，虽然10月份工资名义上涨，但考虑到通货膨胀，通货膨胀的增加足以导致工资总体下降0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The latest data are feeding worries that inflation will continue to be higher and more persistent during the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic than some economists had predicted. Both the White House and the Federal Reserve have portrayed recent price hikes as largely “transitory,” driven by comparisons with numbers from last year’s pandemic and supply chain problems that will eventually resolve themselves, but Wednesday’s report is raising new doubts about those claims.</p><p><blockquote>最新数据加剧了人们的担忧，即在从 Covid-19 大流行复苏期间，通胀将继续比一些经济学家预测的更高、更持久。白宫和美联储都将最近的价格上涨描述为 “暂时的”，这是因为与去年大流行病和供应链问题的数据进行了比较，而供应链问题最终会自行解决，但周三的报告对这些说法提出了新的质疑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A threat to Biden’s agenda — and presidency:</b>Politically, the inflation numbers could make it more difficult for President Joe Biden to push through his $1.8 trillion Build Back Better bill, the next major plank of his economic agenda.</p><p><blockquote><b>对拜登议程和总统职位的威胁：</b>在政治上，通胀数据可能会让乔·拜登总统更难推动他的1.8万亿美元重建更好法案，这是他经济议程的下一个主要支柱。</blockquote></p><p> Sen. Joe Manchin, an essential vote in an evenly divided Senate, has repeatedly criticized the size of the bill — now reduced to about half its original size largely in response to his concerns — and on Wednesday the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WSTC\">West</a> Virginia Democrat indicated that the latest numbers may make him dig in on his position.</p><p><blockquote>参议员乔-曼钦（Joe Manchin）是参议院势均力敌的重要一票，他一再批评该法案的规模--现在主要是为了回应他的担忧，该法案的规模已缩小到原来的一半左右--周三，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WSTC\">西方</a>弗吉尼亚州民主党人表示，最新的数字可能会让他挖掘自己的立场。</blockquote></p><p> “By all accounts, the threat posed by record inflation to the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> people is not ‘transitory’ and is instead getting worse,” Manchin tweeted. “From the grocery store to the gas pump, Americans know the inflation tax is real and DC can no longer ignore the economic pain Americans feel every day.”</p><p><blockquote>“从各方面来看，创纪录的通货膨胀对经济构成的威胁<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>曼钦在推特上写道：“人不是'暂时的'，反而会变得更糟。”“从杂货店到加油站，美国人都知道通货膨胀税是真实存在的，华盛顿特区再也不能忽视美国人每天感受到的经济痛苦了”。</blockquote></p><p> Biden responded to those concerns in astatementWednesday, arguing that the recently passed infrastructure bill will help ease supply bottlenecks, while the larger social spending package still under debate would fight inflation by reducing the cost of child care, prescription drugs and health coverage.</p><p><blockquote>拜登周三在一份声明中回应了这些担忧，他认为最近通过的基础设施法案将有助于缓解供应瓶颈，而仍在辩论中的更大的社会支出计划将通过降低儿童保育、处方药和医疗保险的成本来对抗通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Biden sent a signal that he recognizes that rising prices are a problem. “Inflation hurts Americans pocketbooks, and reversing this trend is a top priority for me,” he said in a speech at the port of Baltimore. He said he has ordered White House officials to address the issue: “I have directed my <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> Economic Council to pursue means to try to further reduce these costs, and have asked the Federal Trade Commission to strike back at any market manipulation or price gouging in [the energy] sector.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，拜登还是发出了一个信号，即他认识到价格上涨是一个问题。“他在巴尔的摩港发表讲话时说：”通货膨胀伤害了美国人的钱包，扭转这一趋势是我的首要任务。他说，他已经命令白宫官员解决这个问题： “我已经指示我的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a>经济委员会已要求美国联邦贸易委员会（Federal Trade Commission）采取措施进一步降低这些成本，并要求美国联邦贸易委员会（Federal Trade Commission）对（能源）领域的任何市场操纵或价格欺诈行为进行反击。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The debate over Biden’s spending plan:</b>At the same time, many economists have pushed back against the idea that spending provided by the Build Back Better plan would be inflationary in the first place. Assuming its cost is fully or largely offset, the legislation would produce only limited inflationary effects, and perhaps none at all, depending on how it’s implemented. On top of that, the spending is spread out over 10 years, with its annual effect being only a fraction of the overall cost.</p><p><blockquote><b>关于拜登支出计划的辩论：</b>与此同时，许多经济学家反驳了“重建更好”计划提供的支出首先会导致通货膨胀的观点。假设其成本得到全部或大部分抵消，那么该立法只会产生有限的通胀影响，甚至可能根本不会产生任何影响，这取决于其实施方式。最重要的是，支出分散在10年内，其年度影响仅占总成本的一小部分。</blockquote></p><p> “The reconciliation bill would have essentially no discernible effect on the medium- or long-term path of inflation,” former White House economic adviser Jason Furman tweeted Wednesday. “That legislation should be evaluated on other criteria like what it does for opportunity, climate change &amp; long-term growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“前白宫经济顾问杰森-弗曼（Jason Furman）周三在推特上写道：”和解法案对中长期通胀路径基本上不会产生明显影响。“这项立法应该根据其他标准进行评估，比如它在机会、气候变化和长期增长方面的作用”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>More pressure on the Fed?</b>In his statement Wednesday, Biden cited the Fed’s role in fighting inflation. “I want to reemphasize my commitment to the independence of the Federal Reserve to monitor inflation, and take steps necessary to combat it,” he said.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储面临更大压力？</b>拜登在周三的声明中提到了美联储在抗击通胀方面的作用。“他说：”我想重申，我致力于美联储独立监测通货膨胀，并采取必要措施应对通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> As part of an effort to withdraw its support for the economy, the central bank announced last week that it would start winding down its $120 billion per month bond-purchasing program in November, with the goal of ending it entirely by June. But it also signaled that it had no plans to raise interest rates in the near future, given the fact that millions of Americas are still out of work. Now, with the release of another month of worse-than-expected inflation data, it could face calls to act more quickly and decisively.</p><p><blockquote>作为撤回对经济支持的努力的一部分，央行上周宣布将于11月开始逐步结束每月1200亿美元的债券购买计划，目标是在6月前完全结束该计划。但它也表示，鉴于数百万美国人仍然失业，它没有近期加息的计划。现在，随着又一个月比预期更糟糕的通胀数据的公布，它可能会面临评级采取更迅速、更果断的行动。</blockquote></p><p> “It is hard to see how the Fed will be able to stay on the sidelines much longer,” Matthew Sherwood of the Economist Intelligence <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNT\">Unit</a> told Fox Business. Katherine Judge of CIBC Economics said that the latest data “will leave more doubts in the Fed’s mind about how long they can let this inflation run.”</p><p><blockquote>“《经济学人情报》的马修-舍伍德（Matthew Sherwood）说：”很难看出美联储如何能够长期袖手旁观。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNT\">单位</a>告诉福克斯商业频道。CIBC Economics 的凯瑟琳-贾奇（Katherine Judge）表示，最新数据 “将让美联储对他们能让通胀持续多久产生更多疑虑”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Fed is in an increasingly difficult position, though, with its dual mandate of fighting inflation and promoting employment pulling in opposite directions. Persistent inflation could push the bank to raise interest rates sooner than it wants, but doing so could slow the recovery and the much-needed growth in payrolls.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美联储的处境越来越困难，其对抗通胀和促进就业的双重使命正朝着相反的方向发展。持续的通胀可能会促使央行比预期更早加息，但这样做可能会减缓经济复苏和急需的就业增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What comes next:</b>Many experts think inflation will continue to be a problem, at least in the near term. “This is going to get worse before it gets better,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton,toldThe <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POST\">Post</a>.</p><p><blockquote><b>接下来是什么：</b>许多专家认为，至少在短期内，通货膨胀仍将是一个问题。“均富会计师事务所首席经济学家黛安-斯旺克（Diane Swonk）告诉《泰晤士报》：”情况在好转之前还会变得更糟。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POST\">张贴</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, put some numbers on the gloomy outlook. “I hate to say this, but October's core CPI is just a taster,” hetweeted, referring to the core consumer price index, which rose 4.6% in October. “The next few months are going to be horrible. The y/y core rate is headed for 6-6.5% over the next three months, and it could even hit 7%.”</p><p><blockquote>High Frequency Economics 首席美国经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森 (Ian Shepherdson) 给出了一些数字来说明黯淡的前景。“我不想这么说，但 10 月份的核心 CPI 只是一个品尝者，”他指的是 10 月份上涨了 4.6% 的核心消费者价格指数。“未来几个月将是可怕的。未来三个月，同比核心利率将达到 6-6.5%，甚至可能达到 7%。”</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, Shepherdson said that he expects things to improve significantly in the medium term. “I still think as a base case that inflation will be *way* lower a year from now,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，谢泼德森表示，他预计情况将在中期内显着改善。“他说：”我仍然认为，从现在开始，一年后的通货膨胀率将低得多。</blockquote></p><p> The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WRE\">Washington</a> Post’s Heather Long was a bit more ambiguous. “No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> really knows how this is going to end,” she tweeted. “The ‘consensus’ is inflation will be very high through the winter and spring. Then start to moderate. But if Fed, [White House] &amp; Wall Street are wrong, it will get messy. And Fed will have to act (i.e. raise interest rates) in 2022.”</p><p><blockquote>这个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WRE\">华盛顿</a>《邮报》的希瑟-朗（Heather Long）则更加模棱两可。“不<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>她在推特上写道。“'共识'是，通货膨胀率将在整个冬季和春季非常高。然后开始放缓。但如果美联储、[白宫]和华尔街错了，情况就会变得一团糟。美联储将不得不在 2022 年采取行动（即加息）。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1631281755125","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Hits a 30-Year High. Will It Sink Biden’s Agenda?<blockquote>通货膨胀率创30年来新高。这会破坏拜登的议程吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Hits a 30-Year High. Will It Sink Biden’s Agenda?<blockquote>通货膨胀率创30年来新高。这会破坏拜登的议程吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The fiscal times</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-12 11:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. prices rose 6.2% over the last year, the largest annual increase since 1990, the Bureau of Labor StatisticsannouncedWednesday.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工统计局周三宣布，去年美国物价上涨 6.2%，为 1990 年以来最大年度涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Prices rose 0.9% in October compared to September, with the cost of energy, shelter, food and cars both new and used rising significantly during the month. On a 12-month basis, the cost of fuel oil is up about 60%, utilities are up 28% and the price of bacon is up 20%.</p><p><blockquote>10 月份价格比 9 月份上涨 0.9%，能源、住所、食品和新车和二手车的成本在当月大幅上涨。按12个月计算，燃油价格上涨了约60%，公用事业价格上涨了28%，培根价格上涨了20%。</blockquote></p><p> In a separate report, the Labor Department said that while wages rose on a nominal basis in October, the increase in inflation was enough to produce an overall decrease of 0.5% in wages when factoring in inflation.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部在另一份报告中表示，虽然10月份工资名义上涨，但考虑到通货膨胀，通货膨胀的增加足以导致工资总体下降0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> The latest data are feeding worries that inflation will continue to be higher and more persistent during the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic than some economists had predicted. Both the White House and the Federal Reserve have portrayed recent price hikes as largely “transitory,” driven by comparisons with numbers from last year’s pandemic and supply chain problems that will eventually resolve themselves, but Wednesday’s report is raising new doubts about those claims.</p><p><blockquote>最新数据加剧了人们的担忧，即在从 Covid-19 大流行复苏期间，通胀将继续比一些经济学家预测的更高、更持久。白宫和美联储都将最近的价格上涨描述为 “暂时的”，这是因为与去年大流行病和供应链问题的数据进行了比较，而供应链问题最终会自行解决，但周三的报告对这些说法提出了新的质疑。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A threat to Biden’s agenda — and presidency:</b>Politically, the inflation numbers could make it more difficult for President Joe Biden to push through his $1.8 trillion Build Back Better bill, the next major plank of his economic agenda.</p><p><blockquote><b>对拜登议程和总统职位的威胁：</b>在政治上，通胀数据可能会让乔·拜登总统更难推动他的1.8万亿美元重建更好法案，这是他经济议程的下一个主要支柱。</blockquote></p><p> Sen. Joe Manchin, an essential vote in an evenly divided Senate, has repeatedly criticized the size of the bill — now reduced to about half its original size largely in response to his concerns — and on Wednesday the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WSTC\">West</a> Virginia Democrat indicated that the latest numbers may make him dig in on his position.</p><p><blockquote>参议员乔-曼钦（Joe Manchin）是参议院势均力敌的重要一票，他一再批评该法案的规模--现在主要是为了回应他的担忧，该法案的规模已缩小到原来的一半左右--周三，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WSTC\">西方</a>弗吉尼亚州民主党人表示，最新的数字可能会让他挖掘自己的立场。</blockquote></p><p> “By all accounts, the threat posed by record inflation to the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> people is not ‘transitory’ and is instead getting worse,” Manchin tweeted. “From the grocery store to the gas pump, Americans know the inflation tax is real and DC can no longer ignore the economic pain Americans feel every day.”</p><p><blockquote>“从各方面来看，创纪录的通货膨胀对经济构成的威胁<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>曼钦在推特上写道：“人不是'暂时的'，反而会变得更糟。”“从杂货店到加油站，美国人都知道通货膨胀税是真实存在的，华盛顿特区再也不能忽视美国人每天感受到的经济痛苦了”。</blockquote></p><p> Biden responded to those concerns in astatementWednesday, arguing that the recently passed infrastructure bill will help ease supply bottlenecks, while the larger social spending package still under debate would fight inflation by reducing the cost of child care, prescription drugs and health coverage.</p><p><blockquote>拜登周三在一份声明中回应了这些担忧，他认为最近通过的基础设施法案将有助于缓解供应瓶颈，而仍在辩论中的更大的社会支出计划将通过降低儿童保育、处方药和医疗保险的成本来对抗通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Biden sent a signal that he recognizes that rising prices are a problem. “Inflation hurts Americans pocketbooks, and reversing this trend is a top priority for me,” he said in a speech at the port of Baltimore. He said he has ordered White House officials to address the issue: “I have directed my <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> Economic Council to pursue means to try to further reduce these costs, and have asked the Federal Trade Commission to strike back at any market manipulation or price gouging in [the energy] sector.”</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，拜登还是发出了一个信号，即他认识到价格上涨是一个问题。“他在巴尔的摩港发表讲话时说：”通货膨胀伤害了美国人的钱包，扭转这一趋势是我的首要任务。他说，他已经命令白宫官员解决这个问题： “我已经指示我的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a>经济委员会已要求美国联邦贸易委员会（Federal Trade Commission）采取措施进一步降低这些成本，并要求美国联邦贸易委员会（Federal Trade Commission）对（能源）领域的任何市场操纵或价格欺诈行为进行反击。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>The debate over Biden’s spending plan:</b>At the same time, many economists have pushed back against the idea that spending provided by the Build Back Better plan would be inflationary in the first place. Assuming its cost is fully or largely offset, the legislation would produce only limited inflationary effects, and perhaps none at all, depending on how it’s implemented. On top of that, the spending is spread out over 10 years, with its annual effect being only a fraction of the overall cost.</p><p><blockquote><b>关于拜登支出计划的辩论：</b>与此同时，许多经济学家反驳了“重建更好”计划提供的支出首先会导致通货膨胀的观点。假设其成本得到全部或大部分抵消，那么该立法只会产生有限的通胀影响，甚至可能根本不会产生任何影响，这取决于其实施方式。最重要的是，支出分散在10年内，其年度影响仅占总成本的一小部分。</blockquote></p><p> “The reconciliation bill would have essentially no discernible effect on the medium- or long-term path of inflation,” former White House economic adviser Jason Furman tweeted Wednesday. “That legislation should be evaluated on other criteria like what it does for opportunity, climate change &amp; long-term growth.”</p><p><blockquote>“前白宫经济顾问杰森-弗曼（Jason Furman）周三在推特上写道：”和解法案对中长期通胀路径基本上不会产生明显影响。“这项立法应该根据其他标准进行评估，比如它在机会、气候变化和长期增长方面的作用”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>More pressure on the Fed?</b>In his statement Wednesday, Biden cited the Fed’s role in fighting inflation. “I want to reemphasize my commitment to the independence of the Federal Reserve to monitor inflation, and take steps necessary to combat it,” he said.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储面临更大压力？</b>拜登在周三的声明中提到了美联储在抗击通胀方面的作用。“他说：”我想重申，我致力于美联储独立监测通货膨胀，并采取必要措施应对通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> As part of an effort to withdraw its support for the economy, the central bank announced last week that it would start winding down its $120 billion per month bond-purchasing program in November, with the goal of ending it entirely by June. But it also signaled that it had no plans to raise interest rates in the near future, given the fact that millions of Americas are still out of work. Now, with the release of another month of worse-than-expected inflation data, it could face calls to act more quickly and decisively.</p><p><blockquote>作为撤回对经济支持的努力的一部分，央行上周宣布将于11月开始逐步结束每月1200亿美元的债券购买计划，目标是在6月前完全结束该计划。但它也表示，鉴于数百万美国人仍然失业，它没有近期加息的计划。现在，随着又一个月比预期更糟糕的通胀数据的公布，它可能会面临评级采取更迅速、更果断的行动。</blockquote></p><p> “It is hard to see how the Fed will be able to stay on the sidelines much longer,” Matthew Sherwood of the Economist Intelligence <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNT\">Unit</a> told Fox Business. Katherine Judge of CIBC Economics said that the latest data “will leave more doubts in the Fed’s mind about how long they can let this inflation run.”</p><p><blockquote>“《经济学人情报》的马修-舍伍德（Matthew Sherwood）说：”很难看出美联储如何能够长期袖手旁观。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UNT\">单位</a>告诉福克斯商业频道。CIBC Economics 的凯瑟琳-贾奇（Katherine Judge）表示，最新数据 “将让美联储对他们能让通胀持续多久产生更多疑虑”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The Fed is in an increasingly difficult position, though, with its dual mandate of fighting inflation and promoting employment pulling in opposite directions. Persistent inflation could push the bank to raise interest rates sooner than it wants, but doing so could slow the recovery and the much-needed growth in payrolls.</p><p><blockquote>然而，美联储的处境越来越困难，其对抗通胀和促进就业的双重使命正朝着相反的方向发展。持续的通胀可能会促使央行比预期更早加息，但这样做可能会减缓经济复苏和急需的就业增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What comes next:</b>Many experts think inflation will continue to be a problem, at least in the near term. “This is going to get worse before it gets better,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton,toldThe <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POST\">Post</a>.</p><p><blockquote><b>接下来是什么：</b>许多专家认为，至少在短期内，通货膨胀仍将是一个问题。“均富会计师事务所首席经济学家黛安-斯旺克（Diane Swonk）告诉《泰晤士报》：”情况在好转之前还会变得更糟。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POST\">张贴</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, put some numbers on the gloomy outlook. “I hate to say this, but October's core CPI is just a taster,” hetweeted, referring to the core consumer price index, which rose 4.6% in October. “The next few months are going to be horrible. The y/y core rate is headed for 6-6.5% over the next three months, and it could even hit 7%.”</p><p><blockquote>High Frequency Economics 首席美国经济学家伊恩·谢泼德森 (Ian Shepherdson) 给出了一些数字来说明黯淡的前景。“我不想这么说，但 10 月份的核心 CPI 只是一个品尝者，”他指的是 10 月份上涨了 4.6% 的核心消费者价格指数。“未来几个月将是可怕的。未来三个月，同比核心利率将达到 6-6.5%，甚至可能达到 7%。”</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, Shepherdson said that he expects things to improve significantly in the medium term. “I still think as a base case that inflation will be *way* lower a year from now,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，谢泼德森表示，他预计情况将在中期内显着改善。“他说：”我仍然认为，从现在开始，一年后的通货膨胀率将低得多。</blockquote></p><p> The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WRE\">Washington</a> Post’s Heather Long was a bit more ambiguous. “No <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> really knows how this is going to end,” she tweeted. “The ‘consensus’ is inflation will be very high through the winter and spring. Then start to moderate. But if Fed, [White House] &amp; Wall Street are wrong, it will get messy. And Fed will have to act (i.e. raise interest rates) in 2022.”</p><p><blockquote>这个<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WRE\">华盛顿</a>《邮报》的希瑟-朗（Heather Long）则更加模棱两可。“不<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>她在推特上写道。“'共识'是，通货膨胀率将在整个冬季和春季非常高。然后开始放缓。但如果美联储、[白宫]和华尔街错了，情况就会变得一团糟。美联储将不得不在 2022 年采取行动（即加息）。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2021/11/10/Inflation-Hits-30-Year-High-Will-It-Sink-Biden-s-Agenda\">The fiscal times</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.thefiscaltimes.com/2021/11/10/Inflation-Hits-30-Year-High-Will-It-Sink-Biden-s-Agenda","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166672248","content_text":"U.S. prices rose 6.2% over the last year, the largest annual increase since 1990, the Bureau of Labor StatisticsannouncedWednesday.\nPrices rose 0.9% in October compared to September, with the cost of energy, shelter, food and cars both new and used rising significantly during the month. On a 12-month basis, the cost of fuel oil is up about 60%, utilities are up 28% and the price of bacon is up 20%.\nIn a separate report, the Labor Department said that while wages rose on a nominal basis in October, the increase in inflation was enough to produce an overall decrease of 0.5% in wages when factoring in inflation.\nThe latest data are feeding worries that inflation will continue to be higher and more persistent during the recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic than some economists had predicted. Both the White House and the Federal Reserve have portrayed recent price hikes as largely “transitory,” driven by comparisons with numbers from last year’s pandemic and supply chain problems that will eventually resolve themselves, but Wednesday’s report is raising new doubts about those claims.\nA threat to Biden’s agenda — and presidency:Politically, the inflation numbers could make it more difficult for President Joe Biden to push through his $1.8 trillion Build Back Better bill, the next major plank of his economic agenda.\nSen. Joe Manchin, an essential vote in an evenly divided Senate, has repeatedly criticized the size of the bill — now reduced to about half its original size largely in response to his concerns — and on Wednesday the West Virginia Democrat indicated that the latest numbers may make him dig in on his position.\n“By all accounts, the threat posed by record inflation to the American people is not ‘transitory’ and is instead getting worse,” Manchin tweeted. “From the grocery store to the gas pump, Americans know the inflation tax is real and DC can no longer ignore the economic pain Americans feel every day.”\nBiden responded to those concerns in astatementWednesday, arguing that the recently passed infrastructure bill will help ease supply bottlenecks, while the larger social spending package still under debate would fight inflation by reducing the cost of child care, prescription drugs and health coverage.\nStill, Biden sent a signal that he recognizes that rising prices are a problem. “Inflation hurts Americans pocketbooks, and reversing this trend is a top priority for me,” he said in a speech at the port of Baltimore. He said he has ordered White House officials to address the issue: “I have directed my National Economic Council to pursue means to try to further reduce these costs, and have asked the Federal Trade Commission to strike back at any market manipulation or price gouging in [the energy] sector.”\nThe debate over Biden’s spending plan:At the same time, many economists have pushed back against the idea that spending provided by the Build Back Better plan would be inflationary in the first place. Assuming its cost is fully or largely offset, the legislation would produce only limited inflationary effects, and perhaps none at all, depending on how it’s implemented. On top of that, the spending is spread out over 10 years, with its annual effect being only a fraction of the overall cost.\n“The reconciliation bill would have essentially no discernible effect on the medium- or long-term path of inflation,” former White House economic adviser Jason Furman tweeted Wednesday. “That legislation should be evaluated on other criteria like what it does for opportunity, climate change & long-term growth.”\nMore pressure on the Fed?In his statement Wednesday, Biden cited the Fed’s role in fighting inflation. “I want to reemphasize my commitment to the independence of the Federal Reserve to monitor inflation, and take steps necessary to combat it,” he said.\nAs part of an effort to withdraw its support for the economy, the central bank announced last week that it would start winding down its $120 billion per month bond-purchasing program in November, with the goal of ending it entirely by June. But it also signaled that it had no plans to raise interest rates in the near future, given the fact that millions of Americas are still out of work. Now, with the release of another month of worse-than-expected inflation data, it could face calls to act more quickly and decisively.\n“It is hard to see how the Fed will be able to stay on the sidelines much longer,” Matthew Sherwood of the Economist Intelligence Unit told Fox Business. Katherine Judge of CIBC Economics said that the latest data “will leave more doubts in the Fed’s mind about how long they can let this inflation run.”\nThe Fed is in an increasingly difficult position, though, with its dual mandate of fighting inflation and promoting employment pulling in opposite directions. Persistent inflation could push the bank to raise interest rates sooner than it wants, but doing so could slow the recovery and the much-needed growth in payrolls.\nWhat comes next:Many experts think inflation will continue to be a problem, at least in the near term. “This is going to get worse before it gets better,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton,toldThe Washington Post.\nIan Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, put some numbers on the gloomy outlook. “I hate to say this, but October's core CPI is just a taster,” hetweeted, referring to the core consumer price index, which rose 4.6% in October. “The next few months are going to be horrible. The y/y core rate is headed for 6-6.5% over the next three months, and it could even hit 7%.”\nAt the same time, Shepherdson said that he expects things to improve significantly in the medium term. “I still think as a base case that inflation will be *way* lower a year from now,” he said.\nThe Washington Post’s Heather Long was a bit more ambiguous. “No one really knows how this is going to end,” she tweeted. “The ‘consensus’ is inflation will be very high through the winter and spring. Then start to moderate. But if Fed, [White House] & Wall Street are wrong, it will get messy. And Fed will have to act (i.e. raise interest rates) in 2022.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}