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zzzzztg
09-30
$恒峰国际(FOFO)$
钱总预算有限吗?[微笑] 2000w美金拉不动了
zzzzztg
09-30
$恒峰国际(FOFO)$
也就这样了 昙花一现吧
zzzzztg
09-25
$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$
紧握筹码做市商就只能自己对倒自己手中的股票还要付手续费[开心] 他就必须给出更好的价格来吸引你,你别理他他就一直给你更好的价格[开心]
zzzzztg
09-15
$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$
⚠️⚠️兄弟们关闭股票收益计划,不要把股票借给空头
zzzzztg
2023-06-16
$恒生指数(HSI)$
$恒生指数主连 2306(HSImain)$
$腾讯控股(00700)$
🈳️[开心]
zzzzztg
2023-01-17
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@从九千到九千万:2023第一周!美股精品分析预测
zzzzztg
2023-01-17
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@期权小班长:CPI+财报季,如何布局大转折?
zzzzztg
2023-01-17
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@期权小班长:比CPI更有悬念的是美联储的态度
zzzzztg
2023-02-26
$恒生指数(HSI)$
hsi📉
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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也就这样了 昙花一现吧","text":"$恒峰国际(FOFO)$ 也就这样了 昙花一现吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/483917378478168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":482419955155720,"gmtCreate":1758807432903,"gmtModify":1758807434983,"author":{"id":"4118396260606112","authorId":"4118396260606112","name":"zzzzztg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118396260606112","idStr":"4118396260606112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ </a> 紧握筹码做市商就只能自己对倒自己手中的股票还要付手续费[开心] 他就必须给出更好的价格来吸引你,你别理他他就一直给你更好的价格[开心] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ </a> 紧握筹码做市商就只能自己对倒自己手中的股票还要付手续费[开心] 他就必须给出更好的价格来吸引你,你别理他他就一直给你更好的价格[开心] ","text":"$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ 紧握筹码做市商就只能自己对倒自己手中的股票还要付手续费[开心] 他就必须给出更好的价格来吸引你,你别理他他就一直给你更好的价格[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/482419955155720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":478869187715704,"gmtCreate":1757930031039,"gmtModify":1757930032994,"author":{"id":"4118396260606112","authorId":"4118396260606112","name":"zzzzztg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118396260606112","idStr":"4118396260606112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ </a> ⚠️⚠️兄弟们关闭股票收益计划,不要把股票借给空头","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ </a> ⚠️⚠️兄弟们关闭股票收益计划,不要把股票借给空头","text":"$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ ⚠️⚠️兄弟们关闭股票收益计划,不要把股票借给空头","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/478869187715704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":187867984519360,"gmtCreate":1686892207016,"gmtModify":1686892256423,"author":{"id":"4118396260606112","authorId":"4118396260606112","name":"zzzzztg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118396260606112","idStr":"4118396260606112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HSImain\">$恒生指数主连 2306(HSImain)$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$ </a>🈳️[开心] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$ </a><v-v 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>hsi📉","text":"$恒生指数(HSI)$ hsi📉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624669517","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":626168659,"gmtCreate":1673943628371,"gmtModify":1673943866274,"author":{"id":"4118396260606112","authorId":"4118396260606112","name":"zzzzztg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118396260606112","idStr":"4118396260606112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626168659","repostId":"628626844","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":628626844,"gmtCreate":1673223247188,"gmtModify":1744960877653,"author":{"id":"3476843710285521","authorId":"3476843710285521","name":"从九千到九千万","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/838c12f10c207f6cada72f676049e09c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3476843710285521","idStr":"3476843710285521"},"themes":[],"title":"2023第一周!美股精品分析预测","htmlText":"Hello大家好,这里是九千君。周五股市大幅反弹,标普500指数和道琼斯工业指数创下3周新高。周五债券价格的反弹支撑了股市,因为每小时工资增长的放缓超过了美国12月工资报告的大部分强劲。12月平均时薪放缓至16个月低点,按年率计算为+4.6%,弱于按年率计算+5.0%的预期。 12月的就业数据推动了本周的市场变动。在JOLTs、ADP和初请/续请失业金人数均强于预期后,股票和债券最初被抛售。FOMC会议纪要也确认了2023年不会有削减。周五的非农就业数据也好于预期,但工资增长放缓,引发了市场的反弹。 陷入困境的零售商成为新闻焦点,Bed Bath & Beyond和Party City警告说未来会破产。 对于大盘,延续我上一篇文章在2022年对2023的看法,日线级别上390的位置依然是一个强阻力位,所以我会考虑在接下来两周看空如果没有突破390的话, 本周期权交易收益不错,算是给2023年开了一个好头,我们把部分交易记录po在这里。感兴趣的朋友可以通过关注公众号:从九千到九千万或者访问9kto90m.com来reach我们。 下周的经济事件和数据发布如下: BBBY下周二财报,注意关注关于BBBY的破产新闻,BBBY和Party City有日内交易的机会(高风险)。 个股部分: AAPL<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 收盘价格129附近,过去五个月内苹果收到产业链和订单的影响,日线上已经明显趋于下降趋势,上周二跌破了2022年6月的一年内最低点,如果下周五不能突破130到136的位置,接下来应该还会继续有抛售。 AMZN<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>&","listText":"Hello大家好,这里是九千君。周五股市大幅反弹,标普500指数和道琼斯工业指数创下3周新高。周五债券价格的反弹支撑了股市,因为每小时工资增长的放缓超过了美国12月工资报告的大部分强劲。12月平均时薪放缓至16个月低点,按年率计算为+4.6%,弱于按年率计算+5.0%的预期。 12月的就业数据推动了本周的市场变动。在JOLTs、ADP和初请/续请失业金人数均强于预期后,股票和债券最初被抛售。FOMC会议纪要也确认了2023年不会有削减。周五的非农就业数据也好于预期,但工资增长放缓,引发了市场的反弹。 陷入困境的零售商成为新闻焦点,Bed Bath & Beyond和Party City警告说未来会破产。 对于大盘,延续我上一篇文章在2022年对2023的看法,日线级别上390的位置依然是一个强阻力位,所以我会考虑在接下来两周看空如果没有突破390的话, 本周期权交易收益不错,算是给2023年开了一个好头,我们把部分交易记录po在这里。感兴趣的朋友可以通过关注公众号:从九千到九千万或者访问9kto90m.com来reach我们。 下周的经济事件和数据发布如下: BBBY下周二财报,注意关注关于BBBY的破产新闻,BBBY和Party City有日内交易的机会(高风险)。 个股部分: AAPL<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 收盘价格129附近,过去五个月内苹果收到产业链和订单的影响,日线上已经明显趋于下降趋势,上周二跌破了2022年6月的一年内最低点,如果下周五不能突破130到136的位置,接下来应该还会继续有抛售。 AMZN<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>&","text":"Hello大家好,这里是九千君。周五股市大幅反弹,标普500指数和道琼斯工业指数创下3周新高。周五债券价格的反弹支撑了股市,因为每小时工资增长的放缓超过了美国12月工资报告的大部分强劲。12月平均时薪放缓至16个月低点,按年率计算为+4.6%,弱于按年率计算+5.0%的预期。 12月的就业数据推动了本周的市场变动。在JOLTs、ADP和初请/续请失业金人数均强于预期后,股票和债券最初被抛售。FOMC会议纪要也确认了2023年不会有削减。周五的非农就业数据也好于预期,但工资增长放缓,引发了市场的反弹。 陷入困境的零售商成为新闻焦点,Bed Bath & Beyond和Party City警告说未来会破产。 对于大盘,延续我上一篇文章在2022年对2023的看法,日线级别上390的位置依然是一个强阻力位,所以我会考虑在接下来两周看空如果没有突破390的话, 本周期权交易收益不错,算是给2023年开了一个好头,我们把部分交易记录po在这里。感兴趣的朋友可以通过关注公众号:从九千到九千万或者访问9kto90m.com来reach我们。 下周的经济事件和数据发布如下: BBBY下周二财报,注意关注关于BBBY的破产新闻,BBBY和Party City有日内交易的机会(高风险)。 个股部分: AAPL$苹果(AAPL)$ 收盘价格129附近,过去五个月内苹果收到产业链和订单的影响,日线上已经明显趋于下降趋势,上周二跌破了2022年6月的一年内最低点,如果下周五不能突破130到136的位置,接下来应该还会继续有抛售。 AMZN$亚马逊(AMZN)$&","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c75fb714894be3ab7c4dd48d449eb99","width":"632","height":"203"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/800c3d6b566a794c1e0226d1e19a70e7","width":"632","height":"348"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57e93c9753bb0feca6728b1ad0979d19","width":"632","height":"406"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628626844","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":12,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626168860,"gmtCreate":1673943614851,"gmtModify":1673943863941,"author":{"id":"4118396260606112","authorId":"4118396260606112","name":"zzzzztg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118396260606112","idStr":"4118396260606112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626168860","repostId":"628223856","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":628223856,"gmtCreate":1673275631075,"gmtModify":1673276957153,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","idStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"CPI+财报季,如何布局大转折?","htmlText":"周五大涨非农数据起到的作用很小,解读上模棱两可,甚至偏鹰,但也在预期之中,因为早有预期就业数据下降速度不会很快。开盘后带动大涨的主要因素还是ISM制造业PMI爆冷,录得48.4,大大低于预期,创造2020年5月以来新低。实锤了经济衰退,市场一片欢呼,感觉有了倒逼美联储降息的空间。在我看来这就是进ICU前的蹦迪,因为这周就开始财报季了。众所周知,宏观数据和财报联系十分紧密。比较熟悉的例子就是二手车价格和汽车板块股价表现之间的联系。所以PMI数据这么差,我很为财报季捏把汗。所以问题就来了,周四是即将公布12月CPI,预测年率是6.5%,通胀进一步明显下降。那么市场肯定会提前price in利好,前半周上涨。而数据落地后极大概率就是回调,除非进一步低于预期,否则大盘也就止步于此了。本周是不是财报季前的最后狂欢呢?从期权异动来看,本周主要财报是银行股和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> ,风格偏向sell call 和平价put。平价put可以理解,但个人认为sell call可以等财报后再做考虑。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020230317%2080.0%20CALL\">$TSM 20230317 80.0 CALL$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/C%2020230203%2047.0%20PUT\">$C 20230203 47.0 PUT$</a>","listText":"周五大涨非农数据起到的作用很小,解读上模棱两可,甚至偏鹰,但也在预期之中,因为早有预期就业数据下降速度不会很快。开盘后带动大涨的主要因素还是ISM制造业PMI爆冷,录得48.4,大大低于预期,创造2020年5月以来新低。实锤了经济衰退,市场一片欢呼,感觉有了倒逼美联储降息的空间。在我看来这就是进ICU前的蹦迪,因为这周就开始财报季了。众所周知,宏观数据和财报联系十分紧密。比较熟悉的例子就是二手车价格和汽车板块股价表现之间的联系。所以PMI数据这么差,我很为财报季捏把汗。所以问题就来了,周四是即将公布12月CPI,预测年率是6.5%,通胀进一步明显下降。那么市场肯定会提前price in利好,前半周上涨。而数据落地后极大概率就是回调,除非进一步低于预期,否则大盘也就止步于此了。本周是不是财报季前的最后狂欢呢?从期权异动来看,本周主要财报是银行股和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> ,风格偏向sell call 和平价put。平价put可以理解,但个人认为sell call可以等财报后再做考虑。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020230317%2080.0%20CALL\">$TSM 20230317 80.0 CALL$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/C%2020230203%2047.0%20PUT\">$C 20230203 47.0 PUT$</a>","text":"周五大涨非农数据起到的作用很小,解读上模棱两可,甚至偏鹰,但也在预期之中,因为早有预期就业数据下降速度不会很快。开盘后带动大涨的主要因素还是ISM制造业PMI爆冷,录得48.4,大大低于预期,创造2020年5月以来新低。实锤了经济衰退,市场一片欢呼,感觉有了倒逼美联储降息的空间。在我看来这就是进ICU前的蹦迪,因为这周就开始财报季了。众所周知,宏观数据和财报联系十分紧密。比较熟悉的例子就是二手车价格和汽车板块股价表现之间的联系。所以PMI数据这么差,我很为财报季捏把汗。所以问题就来了,周四是即将公布12月CPI,预测年率是6.5%,通胀进一步明显下降。那么市场肯定会提前price in利好,前半周上涨。而数据落地后极大概率就是回调,除非进一步低于预期,否则大盘也就止步于此了。本周是不是财报季前的最后狂欢呢?从期权异动来看,本周主要财报是银行股和$台积电(TSM)$ ,风格偏向sell call 和平价put。平价put可以理解,但个人认为sell call可以等财报后再做考虑。$TSM 20230317 80.0 CALL$$C 20230203 47.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac31a623b5dd4f8e9382259829b6d6e8","width":"1170","height":"953"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5b68905b3f46db7bbab4b2063abd0d","width":"2562","height":"96"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbfdbbac73cdc19c5032fd9bfa94ddeb","width":"2596","height":"590"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628223856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626168132,"gmtCreate":1673943587827,"gmtModify":1673943861670,"author":{"id":"4118396260606112","authorId":"4118396260606112","name":"zzzzztg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4118396260606112","idStr":"4118396260606112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626168132","repostId":"628793143","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":628793143,"gmtCreate":1673455428382,"gmtModify":1673455720558,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667590215376","idStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"比CPI更有悬念的是美联储的态度","htmlText":"周四CPI有90%的概率数据表现低于预期,市场给出平均预期6.5%,降幅显著,其他分析师给出的预期数据甚至更低。更低的数据有助于当天打开上涨空间,不过我倾向认为是短爆发,因为马上下周财报季要面对真实的盈利下滑了。根据彭博预测:整体CPI环比下降0.2%(前值为0.1%),同比增长6.3%(前值为7.1%)。核心CPI环比增长0.2%,与11月持平,同比增长5.6%,而前值为6.0%。经季节性因素调整后,能源价格下跌可能导致月度整体数据下降0.5个百分点。汽油价格经季节性因素调整后下跌9.8%,其中中国需求下降是主要原因。异常温暖的冬天也导致了家庭公用事业价格的下降。核心商品领域的通缩继续加剧。由于消费者控制需求,家具、服装、玩具和娱乐用品等多个商品行业库存过剩。新车和二手车的价格在12月份都可能出现下跌。供应和生产的改善帮助提振了汽车库存。随着贷款利率攀升,需求已经降温。到2023年上半年末,企业将完成过剩库存的去库存,达到与需求下降更为平衡的水平,此后商品类别对通货紧缩的推动作用将减弱。按月计算,住房通胀可能已经见顶。主要居民租金和业主等效租金的同比增长一直持续到春末。除住房以外的核心服务——美联储主席鲍威尔指出,这是一个需要观察持久通货紧缩迹象的类别——可能正在横向下滑。不过,最新的ISM服务报告显示,12月服务需求的前瞻性部分大幅下降,因此这一类别在未来几个月可能会放缓是合理的。衰退不是利好,衰退逼迫美联储停止加息才是利好,可以说美联储的态度决定了市场的两种走势。这几天土耳其股市暴雷,原因是12月底土耳其央行决定暂停降息。没错,在全世界都在试图靠加息或其他方法压低通胀的去年,土耳其8月份做了一个大胆的决定:开始降息。于是土耳其指数成为了2022年表现最好的指数,土耳其etf<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUR\">$土耳其ETF-iShar</a>","listText":"周四CPI有90%的概率数据表现低于预期,市场给出平均预期6.5%,降幅显著,其他分析师给出的预期数据甚至更低。更低的数据有助于当天打开上涨空间,不过我倾向认为是短爆发,因为马上下周财报季要面对真实的盈利下滑了。根据彭博预测:整体CPI环比下降0.2%(前值为0.1%),同比增长6.3%(前值为7.1%)。核心CPI环比增长0.2%,与11月持平,同比增长5.6%,而前值为6.0%。经季节性因素调整后,能源价格下跌可能导致月度整体数据下降0.5个百分点。汽油价格经季节性因素调整后下跌9.8%,其中中国需求下降是主要原因。异常温暖的冬天也导致了家庭公用事业价格的下降。核心商品领域的通缩继续加剧。由于消费者控制需求,家具、服装、玩具和娱乐用品等多个商品行业库存过剩。新车和二手车的价格在12月份都可能出现下跌。供应和生产的改善帮助提振了汽车库存。随着贷款利率攀升,需求已经降温。到2023年上半年末,企业将完成过剩库存的去库存,达到与需求下降更为平衡的水平,此后商品类别对通货紧缩的推动作用将减弱。按月计算,住房通胀可能已经见顶。主要居民租金和业主等效租金的同比增长一直持续到春末。除住房以外的核心服务——美联储主席鲍威尔指出,这是一个需要观察持久通货紧缩迹象的类别——可能正在横向下滑。不过,最新的ISM服务报告显示,12月服务需求的前瞻性部分大幅下降,因此这一类别在未来几个月可能会放缓是合理的。衰退不是利好,衰退逼迫美联储停止加息才是利好,可以说美联储的态度决定了市场的两种走势。这几天土耳其股市暴雷,原因是12月底土耳其央行决定暂停降息。没错,在全世界都在试图靠加息或其他方法压低通胀的去年,土耳其8月份做了一个大胆的决定:开始降息。于是土耳其指数成为了2022年表现最好的指数,土耳其etf<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUR\">$土耳其ETF-iShar</a>","text":"周四CPI有90%的概率数据表现低于预期,市场给出平均预期6.5%,降幅显著,其他分析师给出的预期数据甚至更低。更低的数据有助于当天打开上涨空间,不过我倾向认为是短爆发,因为马上下周财报季要面对真实的盈利下滑了。根据彭博预测:整体CPI环比下降0.2%(前值为0.1%),同比增长6.3%(前值为7.1%)。核心CPI环比增长0.2%,与11月持平,同比增长5.6%,而前值为6.0%。经季节性因素调整后,能源价格下跌可能导致月度整体数据下降0.5个百分点。汽油价格经季节性因素调整后下跌9.8%,其中中国需求下降是主要原因。异常温暖的冬天也导致了家庭公用事业价格的下降。核心商品领域的通缩继续加剧。由于消费者控制需求,家具、服装、玩具和娱乐用品等多个商品行业库存过剩。新车和二手车的价格在12月份都可能出现下跌。供应和生产的改善帮助提振了汽车库存。随着贷款利率攀升,需求已经降温。到2023年上半年末,企业将完成过剩库存的去库存,达到与需求下降更为平衡的水平,此后商品类别对通货紧缩的推动作用将减弱。按月计算,住房通胀可能已经见顶。主要居民租金和业主等效租金的同比增长一直持续到春末。除住房以外的核心服务——美联储主席鲍威尔指出,这是一个需要观察持久通货紧缩迹象的类别——可能正在横向下滑。不过,最新的ISM服务报告显示,12月服务需求的前瞻性部分大幅下降,因此这一类别在未来几个月可能会放缓是合理的。衰退不是利好,衰退逼迫美联储停止加息才是利好,可以说美联储的态度决定了市场的两种走势。这几天土耳其股市暴雷,原因是12月底土耳其央行决定暂停降息。没错,在全世界都在试图靠加息或其他方法压低通胀的去年,土耳其8月份做了一个大胆的决定:开始降息。于是土耳其指数成为了2022年表现最好的指数,土耳其etf$土耳其ETF-iShar","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2c301eb9c3793a602d3341eb9c3b2dd","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4cdaf629b8b49ee868b9ca7d4f26f6f","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0e96e509defdf5b4bd22c3f83f6ee7e","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628793143","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":483923786261248,"gmtCreate":1759174165177,"gmtModify":1759174167199,"author":{"id":"4118396260606112","authorId":"4118396260606112","name":"zzzzztg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118396260606112","authorIdStr":"4118396260606112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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也就这样了 昙花一现吧","text":"$恒峰国际(FOFO)$ 也就这样了 昙花一现吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/483917378478168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":482419955155720,"gmtCreate":1758807432903,"gmtModify":1758807434983,"author":{"id":"4118396260606112","authorId":"4118396260606112","name":"zzzzztg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118396260606112","authorIdStr":"4118396260606112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ </a> 紧握筹码做市商就只能自己对倒自己手中的股票还要付手续费[开心] 他就必须给出更好的价格来吸引你,你别理他他就一直给你更好的价格[开心] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ </a> 紧握筹码做市商就只能自己对倒自己手中的股票还要付手续费[开心] 他就必须给出更好的价格来吸引你,你别理他他就一直给你更好的价格[开心] ","text":"$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ 紧握筹码做市商就只能自己对倒自己手中的股票还要付手续费[开心] 他就必须给出更好的价格来吸引你,你别理他他就一直给你更好的价格[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/482419955155720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1373,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":478869187715704,"gmtCreate":1757930031039,"gmtModify":1757930032994,"author":{"id":"4118396260606112","authorId":"4118396260606112","name":"zzzzztg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118396260606112","authorIdStr":"4118396260606112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ </a> ⚠️⚠️兄弟们关闭股票收益计划,不要把股票借给空头","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OPEN\">$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ </a> ⚠️⚠️兄弟们关闭股票收益计划,不要把股票借给空头","text":"$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ ⚠️⚠️兄弟们关闭股票收益计划,不要把股票借给空头","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/478869187715704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":187867984519360,"gmtCreate":1686892207016,"gmtModify":1686892256423,"author":{"id":"4118396260606112","authorId":"4118396260606112","name":"zzzzztg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118396260606112","authorIdStr":"4118396260606112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/HSImain\">$恒生指数主连 2306(HSImain)$ </a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$ </a>🈳️[开心] ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$ </a><v-v 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🈳️[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187867984519360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":626168659,"gmtCreate":1673943628371,"gmtModify":1673943866274,"author":{"id":"4118396260606112","authorId":"4118396260606112","name":"zzzzztg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118396260606112","authorIdStr":"4118396260606112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626168659","repostId":"628626844","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":628626844,"gmtCreate":1673223247188,"gmtModify":1744960877653,"author":{"id":"3476843710285521","authorId":"3476843710285521","name":"从九千到九千万","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/838c12f10c207f6cada72f676049e09c","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476843710285521","authorIdStr":"3476843710285521"},"themes":[],"title":"2023第一周!美股精品分析预测","htmlText":"Hello大家好,这里是九千君。周五股市大幅反弹,标普500指数和道琼斯工业指数创下3周新高。周五债券价格的反弹支撑了股市,因为每小时工资增长的放缓超过了美国12月工资报告的大部分强劲。12月平均时薪放缓至16个月低点,按年率计算为+4.6%,弱于按年率计算+5.0%的预期。 12月的就业数据推动了本周的市场变动。在JOLTs、ADP和初请/续请失业金人数均强于预期后,股票和债券最初被抛售。FOMC会议纪要也确认了2023年不会有削减。周五的非农就业数据也好于预期,但工资增长放缓,引发了市场的反弹。 陷入困境的零售商成为新闻焦点,Bed Bath & Beyond和Party City警告说未来会破产。 对于大盘,延续我上一篇文章在2022年对2023的看法,日线级别上390的位置依然是一个强阻力位,所以我会考虑在接下来两周看空如果没有突破390的话, 本周期权交易收益不错,算是给2023年开了一个好头,我们把部分交易记录po在这里。感兴趣的朋友可以通过关注公众号:从九千到九千万或者访问9kto90m.com来reach我们。 下周的经济事件和数据发布如下: BBBY下周二财报,注意关注关于BBBY的破产新闻,BBBY和Party City有日内交易的机会(高风险)。 个股部分: AAPL<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 收盘价格129附近,过去五个月内苹果收到产业链和订单的影响,日线上已经明显趋于下降趋势,上周二跌破了2022年6月的一年内最低点,如果下周五不能突破130到136的位置,接下来应该还会继续有抛售。 AMZN<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>&","listText":"Hello大家好,这里是九千君。周五股市大幅反弹,标普500指数和道琼斯工业指数创下3周新高。周五债券价格的反弹支撑了股市,因为每小时工资增长的放缓超过了美国12月工资报告的大部分强劲。12月平均时薪放缓至16个月低点,按年率计算为+4.6%,弱于按年率计算+5.0%的预期。 12月的就业数据推动了本周的市场变动。在JOLTs、ADP和初请/续请失业金人数均强于预期后,股票和债券最初被抛售。FOMC会议纪要也确认了2023年不会有削减。周五的非农就业数据也好于预期,但工资增长放缓,引发了市场的反弹。 陷入困境的零售商成为新闻焦点,Bed Bath & Beyond和Party City警告说未来会破产。 对于大盘,延续我上一篇文章在2022年对2023的看法,日线级别上390的位置依然是一个强阻力位,所以我会考虑在接下来两周看空如果没有突破390的话, 本周期权交易收益不错,算是给2023年开了一个好头,我们把部分交易记录po在这里。感兴趣的朋友可以通过关注公众号:从九千到九千万或者访问9kto90m.com来reach我们。 下周的经济事件和数据发布如下: BBBY下周二财报,注意关注关于BBBY的破产新闻,BBBY和Party City有日内交易的机会(高风险)。 个股部分: AAPL<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 收盘价格129附近,过去五个月内苹果收到产业链和订单的影响,日线上已经明显趋于下降趋势,上周二跌破了2022年6月的一年内最低点,如果下周五不能突破130到136的位置,接下来应该还会继续有抛售。 AMZN<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a>&","text":"Hello大家好,这里是九千君。周五股市大幅反弹,标普500指数和道琼斯工业指数创下3周新高。周五债券价格的反弹支撑了股市,因为每小时工资增长的放缓超过了美国12月工资报告的大部分强劲。12月平均时薪放缓至16个月低点,按年率计算为+4.6%,弱于按年率计算+5.0%的预期。 12月的就业数据推动了本周的市场变动。在JOLTs、ADP和初请/续请失业金人数均强于预期后,股票和债券最初被抛售。FOMC会议纪要也确认了2023年不会有削减。周五的非农就业数据也好于预期,但工资增长放缓,引发了市场的反弹。 陷入困境的零售商成为新闻焦点,Bed Bath & Beyond和Party City警告说未来会破产。 对于大盘,延续我上一篇文章在2022年对2023的看法,日线级别上390的位置依然是一个强阻力位,所以我会考虑在接下来两周看空如果没有突破390的话, 本周期权交易收益不错,算是给2023年开了一个好头,我们把部分交易记录po在这里。感兴趣的朋友可以通过关注公众号:从九千到九千万或者访问9kto90m.com来reach我们。 下周的经济事件和数据发布如下: BBBY下周二财报,注意关注关于BBBY的破产新闻,BBBY和Party City有日内交易的机会(高风险)。 个股部分: AAPL$苹果(AAPL)$ 收盘价格129附近,过去五个月内苹果收到产业链和订单的影响,日线上已经明显趋于下降趋势,上周二跌破了2022年6月的一年内最低点,如果下周五不能突破130到136的位置,接下来应该还会继续有抛售。 AMZN$亚马逊(AMZN)$&","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c75fb714894be3ab7c4dd48d449eb99","width":"632","height":"203"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/800c3d6b566a794c1e0226d1e19a70e7","width":"632","height":"348"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57e93c9753bb0feca6728b1ad0979d19","width":"632","height":"406"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628626844","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":12,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626168860,"gmtCreate":1673943614851,"gmtModify":1673943863941,"author":{"id":"4118396260606112","authorId":"4118396260606112","name":"zzzzztg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118396260606112","authorIdStr":"4118396260606112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626168860","repostId":"628223856","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":628223856,"gmtCreate":1673275631075,"gmtModify":1673276957153,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667590215376","authorIdStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"CPI+财报季,如何布局大转折?","htmlText":"周五大涨非农数据起到的作用很小,解读上模棱两可,甚至偏鹰,但也在预期之中,因为早有预期就业数据下降速度不会很快。开盘后带动大涨的主要因素还是ISM制造业PMI爆冷,录得48.4,大大低于预期,创造2020年5月以来新低。实锤了经济衰退,市场一片欢呼,感觉有了倒逼美联储降息的空间。在我看来这就是进ICU前的蹦迪,因为这周就开始财报季了。众所周知,宏观数据和财报联系十分紧密。比较熟悉的例子就是二手车价格和汽车板块股价表现之间的联系。所以PMI数据这么差,我很为财报季捏把汗。所以问题就来了,周四是即将公布12月CPI,预测年率是6.5%,通胀进一步明显下降。那么市场肯定会提前price in利好,前半周上涨。而数据落地后极大概率就是回调,除非进一步低于预期,否则大盘也就止步于此了。本周是不是财报季前的最后狂欢呢?从期权异动来看,本周主要财报是银行股和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> ,风格偏向sell call 和平价put。平价put可以理解,但个人认为sell call可以等财报后再做考虑。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020230317%2080.0%20CALL\">$TSM 20230317 80.0 CALL$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/C%2020230203%2047.0%20PUT\">$C 20230203 47.0 PUT$</a>","listText":"周五大涨非农数据起到的作用很小,解读上模棱两可,甚至偏鹰,但也在预期之中,因为早有预期就业数据下降速度不会很快。开盘后带动大涨的主要因素还是ISM制造业PMI爆冷,录得48.4,大大低于预期,创造2020年5月以来新低。实锤了经济衰退,市场一片欢呼,感觉有了倒逼美联储降息的空间。在我看来这就是进ICU前的蹦迪,因为这周就开始财报季了。众所周知,宏观数据和财报联系十分紧密。比较熟悉的例子就是二手车价格和汽车板块股价表现之间的联系。所以PMI数据这么差,我很为财报季捏把汗。所以问题就来了,周四是即将公布12月CPI,预测年率是6.5%,通胀进一步明显下降。那么市场肯定会提前price in利好,前半周上涨。而数据落地后极大概率就是回调,除非进一步低于预期,否则大盘也就止步于此了。本周是不是财报季前的最后狂欢呢?从期权异动来看,本周主要财报是银行股和<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> ,风格偏向sell call 和平价put。平价put可以理解,但个人认为sell call可以等财报后再做考虑。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020230317%2080.0%20CALL\">$TSM 20230317 80.0 CALL$</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/C%2020230203%2047.0%20PUT\">$C 20230203 47.0 PUT$</a>","text":"周五大涨非农数据起到的作用很小,解读上模棱两可,甚至偏鹰,但也在预期之中,因为早有预期就业数据下降速度不会很快。开盘后带动大涨的主要因素还是ISM制造业PMI爆冷,录得48.4,大大低于预期,创造2020年5月以来新低。实锤了经济衰退,市场一片欢呼,感觉有了倒逼美联储降息的空间。在我看来这就是进ICU前的蹦迪,因为这周就开始财报季了。众所周知,宏观数据和财报联系十分紧密。比较熟悉的例子就是二手车价格和汽车板块股价表现之间的联系。所以PMI数据这么差,我很为财报季捏把汗。所以问题就来了,周四是即将公布12月CPI,预测年率是6.5%,通胀进一步明显下降。那么市场肯定会提前price in利好,前半周上涨。而数据落地后极大概率就是回调,除非进一步低于预期,否则大盘也就止步于此了。本周是不是财报季前的最后狂欢呢?从期权异动来看,本周主要财报是银行股和$台积电(TSM)$ ,风格偏向sell call 和平价put。平价put可以理解,但个人认为sell call可以等财报后再做考虑。$TSM 20230317 80.0 CALL$$C 20230203 47.0 PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac31a623b5dd4f8e9382259829b6d6e8","width":"1170","height":"953"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f5b68905b3f46db7bbab4b2063abd0d","width":"2562","height":"96"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbfdbbac73cdc19c5032fd9bfa94ddeb","width":"2596","height":"590"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628223856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1722,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626168132,"gmtCreate":1673943587827,"gmtModify":1673943861670,"author":{"id":"4118396260606112","authorId":"4118396260606112","name":"zzzzztg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118396260606112","authorIdStr":"4118396260606112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626168132","repostId":"628793143","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":628793143,"gmtCreate":1673455428382,"gmtModify":1673455720558,"author":{"id":"3527667590215376","authorId":"3527667590215376","name":"期权小班长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e785bea87af8baf08d2b24111b78c16a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3527667590215376","authorIdStr":"3527667590215376"},"themes":[],"title":"比CPI更有悬念的是美联储的态度","htmlText":"周四CPI有90%的概率数据表现低于预期,市场给出平均预期6.5%,降幅显著,其他分析师给出的预期数据甚至更低。更低的数据有助于当天打开上涨空间,不过我倾向认为是短爆发,因为马上下周财报季要面对真实的盈利下滑了。根据彭博预测:整体CPI环比下降0.2%(前值为0.1%),同比增长6.3%(前值为7.1%)。核心CPI环比增长0.2%,与11月持平,同比增长5.6%,而前值为6.0%。经季节性因素调整后,能源价格下跌可能导致月度整体数据下降0.5个百分点。汽油价格经季节性因素调整后下跌9.8%,其中中国需求下降是主要原因。异常温暖的冬天也导致了家庭公用事业价格的下降。核心商品领域的通缩继续加剧。由于消费者控制需求,家具、服装、玩具和娱乐用品等多个商品行业库存过剩。新车和二手车的价格在12月份都可能出现下跌。供应和生产的改善帮助提振了汽车库存。随着贷款利率攀升,需求已经降温。到2023年上半年末,企业将完成过剩库存的去库存,达到与需求下降更为平衡的水平,此后商品类别对通货紧缩的推动作用将减弱。按月计算,住房通胀可能已经见顶。主要居民租金和业主等效租金的同比增长一直持续到春末。除住房以外的核心服务——美联储主席鲍威尔指出,这是一个需要观察持久通货紧缩迹象的类别——可能正在横向下滑。不过,最新的ISM服务报告显示,12月服务需求的前瞻性部分大幅下降,因此这一类别在未来几个月可能会放缓是合理的。衰退不是利好,衰退逼迫美联储停止加息才是利好,可以说美联储的态度决定了市场的两种走势。这几天土耳其股市暴雷,原因是12月底土耳其央行决定暂停降息。没错,在全世界都在试图靠加息或其他方法压低通胀的去年,土耳其8月份做了一个大胆的决定:开始降息。于是土耳其指数成为了2022年表现最好的指数,土耳其etf<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUR\">$土耳其ETF-iShar</a>","listText":"周四CPI有90%的概率数据表现低于预期,市场给出平均预期6.5%,降幅显著,其他分析师给出的预期数据甚至更低。更低的数据有助于当天打开上涨空间,不过我倾向认为是短爆发,因为马上下周财报季要面对真实的盈利下滑了。根据彭博预测:整体CPI环比下降0.2%(前值为0.1%),同比增长6.3%(前值为7.1%)。核心CPI环比增长0.2%,与11月持平,同比增长5.6%,而前值为6.0%。经季节性因素调整后,能源价格下跌可能导致月度整体数据下降0.5个百分点。汽油价格经季节性因素调整后下跌9.8%,其中中国需求下降是主要原因。异常温暖的冬天也导致了家庭公用事业价格的下降。核心商品领域的通缩继续加剧。由于消费者控制需求,家具、服装、玩具和娱乐用品等多个商品行业库存过剩。新车和二手车的价格在12月份都可能出现下跌。供应和生产的改善帮助提振了汽车库存。随着贷款利率攀升,需求已经降温。到2023年上半年末,企业将完成过剩库存的去库存,达到与需求下降更为平衡的水平,此后商品类别对通货紧缩的推动作用将减弱。按月计算,住房通胀可能已经见顶。主要居民租金和业主等效租金的同比增长一直持续到春末。除住房以外的核心服务——美联储主席鲍威尔指出,这是一个需要观察持久通货紧缩迹象的类别——可能正在横向下滑。不过,最新的ISM服务报告显示,12月服务需求的前瞻性部分大幅下降,因此这一类别在未来几个月可能会放缓是合理的。衰退不是利好,衰退逼迫美联储停止加息才是利好,可以说美联储的态度决定了市场的两种走势。这几天土耳其股市暴雷,原因是12月底土耳其央行决定暂停降息。没错,在全世界都在试图靠加息或其他方法压低通胀的去年,土耳其8月份做了一个大胆的决定:开始降息。于是土耳其指数成为了2022年表现最好的指数,土耳其etf<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TUR\">$土耳其ETF-iShar</a>","text":"周四CPI有90%的概率数据表现低于预期,市场给出平均预期6.5%,降幅显著,其他分析师给出的预期数据甚至更低。更低的数据有助于当天打开上涨空间,不过我倾向认为是短爆发,因为马上下周财报季要面对真实的盈利下滑了。根据彭博预测:整体CPI环比下降0.2%(前值为0.1%),同比增长6.3%(前值为7.1%)。核心CPI环比增长0.2%,与11月持平,同比增长5.6%,而前值为6.0%。经季节性因素调整后,能源价格下跌可能导致月度整体数据下降0.5个百分点。汽油价格经季节性因素调整后下跌9.8%,其中中国需求下降是主要原因。异常温暖的冬天也导致了家庭公用事业价格的下降。核心商品领域的通缩继续加剧。由于消费者控制需求,家具、服装、玩具和娱乐用品等多个商品行业库存过剩。新车和二手车的价格在12月份都可能出现下跌。供应和生产的改善帮助提振了汽车库存。随着贷款利率攀升,需求已经降温。到2023年上半年末,企业将完成过剩库存的去库存,达到与需求下降更为平衡的水平,此后商品类别对通货紧缩的推动作用将减弱。按月计算,住房通胀可能已经见顶。主要居民租金和业主等效租金的同比增长一直持续到春末。除住房以外的核心服务——美联储主席鲍威尔指出,这是一个需要观察持久通货紧缩迹象的类别——可能正在横向下滑。不过,最新的ISM服务报告显示,12月服务需求的前瞻性部分大幅下降,因此这一类别在未来几个月可能会放缓是合理的。衰退不是利好,衰退逼迫美联储停止加息才是利好,可以说美联储的态度决定了市场的两种走势。这几天土耳其股市暴雷,原因是12月底土耳其央行决定暂停降息。没错,在全世界都在试图靠加息或其他方法压低通胀的去年,土耳其8月份做了一个大胆的决定:开始降息。于是土耳其指数成为了2022年表现最好的指数,土耳其etf$土耳其ETF-iShar","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2c301eb9c3793a602d3341eb9c3b2dd","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4cdaf629b8b49ee868b9ca7d4f26f6f","width":"-1","height":"-1"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0e96e509defdf5b4bd22c3f83f6ee7e","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628793143","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2248,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":624669517,"gmtCreate":1677413558039,"gmtModify":1677413652395,"author":{"id":"4118396260606112","authorId":"4118396260606112","name":"zzzzztg","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4118396260606112","authorIdStr":"4118396260606112"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>hsi📉","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSI\">$恒生指数(HSI)$ </a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>hsi📉","text":"$恒生指数(HSI)$ hsi📉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624669517","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":910,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}