耳东田木的个人主页 - 老虎社区

耳东田木

耳东田木

收手吧，阿祖，外面全是成龙！

IP属地：广东

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4主题

0勋章

03-04

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 什么情况？跌得恐怖

03-04

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉什么情况？跌得让人害怕

2024-08-01

预测蛮准的[财迷]

@拓拔野:$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今晚的资金差额会扩大到 12 亿左右，预计最高涨幅在 13.5-14% 之间

2024-07-17

大跌！大跌眼镜！

2024-07-11

$台积电(TSM)$ 又一个高开低走，又一个重复剧本！

2024-07-10

$台积电(TSM)$ 最近一段时间，几乎都是在高开低走，为何？？？

2024-07-08

$台积电(TSM)$ 今晚190问题不大了，看好到财报后，行情来了！

2024-07-04

$台积电(TSM)$ 台积电的走势稳得一批，2季度的财报公布后，能否上200？

2024-06-27

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 二季度的财报预计什么发呢[得意]

2024-06-13

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 今晚130，稳！

2024-06-11

$中远海控(01919)$ 几个意思？

2024-06-07

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这么趋势拆后短期肯定波动，但长期肯定盈利！红利吃到明年。

2024-06-05

哈哈哈，太形象了

2024-05-28

$台积电(TSM)$ 英伟达在猛冲，为什么你还在缓降？？？？

2024-05-23

这次真的是猪都飞起来了

2024-05-16

特斯拉转型，还有很长远的时间吧，今年短期不看好，长期看好，裁员的残酷以及对公司的影响，只有经历的人才懂

2024-03-07

一句话理解：英伟达增长带动台积电增长，反之亦然。

夜读｜英伟达“得道”，台积电“升天”

2024-02-09

$TSM(TSM)$ 台积电对比英伟达上涨的逻辑我看很多分析，英伟达现在的股价要接近拐点，跟风的风险很大，台积电本来股价就很低，虽然同样是芯片，但是上涨的逻辑不同，有没有大神预测一下今年台积电预计上涨到什么位置？

2023-01-03

实际数据告诉我，你可能想多了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-12-14

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 机构在故意搞马大嘴？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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今晚190问题不大了，看好到财报后，行情来了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325149194596384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1787,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323594204807352,"gmtCreate":1720024595789,"gmtModify":1720024597468,"author":{"id":"4121931783507980","authorId":"4121931783507980","name":"耳东田木","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7e7f1043982410bd37f38de82fbaac","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121931783507980","authorIdStr":"4121931783507980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 台积电的走势稳得一批，2季度的财报公布后，能否上200？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 台积电的走势稳得一批，2季度的财报公布后，能否上200？","text":"$台积电(TSM)$ 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22:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"夜读｜英伟达“得道”，台积电“升天”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2417267830","media":"美股研究社","summary":"英伟达/台积电趋势线也是如此，直到2023年第二季度出现增长。显然，尽管英伟达和AMD的AI GPU是由台积电生产的，但它们正在造成收入差异。如上所述，以30,000美元的平均售价计算，这意味着英伟达的每片晶圆收入是其向台积电支付的收入的87倍。台积电库存在此期间保持持平。作为回应，台积电将2023年的资本支出削减至32%至36%范围的下限，因为个人电脑和智能手机销售缓慢。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>台积电被低估了。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>是一家半导体代工厂，它为AMD和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>等其他公司生产芯片。另一方面，AMD和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>是无晶圆厂半导体公司，它们设计和销售自己的芯片，但将制造外包给台积电。</p><p><strong>由于台积电的收入来自于为包括AMD和英伟达在内的多家公司提供制造服务，其收入增长可能与其客户的收入增长没有直接关联。</strong>整体半导体市场需求、台积电的制造能力及其技术节点的竞争力等因素都会影响台积电相对于其客户的营收表现。</p><p>2023年消费电子市场低迷期间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>有限公司(OTCPK:SSNLF)等存储器公司遭遇重创，台积电营收同比下降4.4%2023年，但在2023年下半年恢复增长18.5%。</p><p>图1显示了台积电2018年第一季度至2023年第四季度的季度总收入（十亿新台币），以及环比收入增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85bb2997009c51b32774c71e02972bcd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"/></p><p><strong>要评估台积电的收入与AMD和英伟达相比是否表现不佳，需要比较这些公司在特定时期内的收入增长率，同时考虑到它们各自的商业模式和市场状况。</strong></p><p>为了进行准确的比较，在图2中，我绘制了2021年第一季度至2023年第四季度台积电的高性能计算(HPC)收入与英伟达的数据中心收入。为了确保视觉兼容性，我将台积电的HPC收入（新台币十亿元）扩大了15倍，而英伟达的收入以百万美元为单位。</p><p>这支持了这样的论点：台积电的HPC和英伟达的数据中心收入之间存在密切关系，直到2023年第二季度英伟达的数据中心收入开始飙升。</p><p>需要明确的是，台积电的HPC产品包括个人计算机中央处理单元（“CPU”）、图形处理器单元（“GPU”）、现场可编程门阵列（“FPGA”）、服务器处理器、加速器和高速网络芯片。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/584c4313a46deab7e79bcc4cd3b99f77\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>在图3中，我添加了AMD同期的数据中心收入。第四季度数据中心业务营收为22.8亿美元，同比增长37.9%，环比增长42.8%。AMD表示，这一强劲增长得益于AMD在12月推出了MI300加速器系列，并获得了来自多个大型云提供商、所有主要OEM和许多领先AI开发商的强大合作伙伴和生态系统支持。2024年第一季度的数据中心指引含糊不清，因为该公司仅指出其将在2024年第一季度实现环比增长，并在2024年超过35亿美元。</p><p>图3显示台积电和AMD的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>（蓝色和绿色虚线）具有可比性，AMD是否能复制第四季度的增长还有待观察，因为我怀疑它正在准备在2025年推出采用HBM3的Mi400来与AMD竞争英伟达的B100。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d02f7885875f66ee91986d297ff18c89\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>我在图4中以图形形式显示了英伟达/TSMC收入（橙色条）和AMD/TSMC收入（灰色条）的比率。这些是英伟达和AMD的实际数据中心收入，以及台积电的HPC收入。</p><p>AMD/台积电比率一直持平，除了2023年第四季度的突增导致<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>（灰色虚线）显示出正斜率。英伟达/台积电趋势线（橙色虚线）也是如此，直到2023年第二季度出现增长。</p><p>显然，<strong>尽管英伟达和AMD的AI GPU是由台积电生产的，但它们正在造成收入差异。</strong></p><p>Mi300的平均售价估计在10,000美元到15,000美元之间（取决于客户和数量）。英伟达的H100处理器售价在25,000美元至40,000美元之间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b0920a879616a0af67000eb55e74d3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>台积电原计划在2023年中期提高芯片价格，但芯片市场及其收入的放缓迫使该公司放弃了这一计划。图6显示了台积电2018年第一季度至2023年第四季度的收入和平均售价。</p><p>重要的是要认识到图6中的平均售价不仅与价格上涨相关，而且与产品组合相关，因为较小的节点晶圆价格较高。2023年第四季度，台积电晶圆收入的很大一部分来自其更先进的工艺节点。具体来说，15%的收入来自N3技术加工的晶圆，而N5和N7技术分别贡献了39%和17%。从货币价值来看，N3技术占29.43亿美元，N5占68.67亿美元，N7占33.354亿美元。</p><p>总体而言，台积电的先进技术节点（包括N7、N5和N3）合计占其晶圆总收入的67%。此外，包括所有基于FinFET的工艺技术在内的更广泛的类别占该公司晶圆销售额的75%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddd8c00b45c00ec711e5e8e7257dba97\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"/></p><p>表1显示了台积电截至2023年1月的价格结构，根据信息网络的报告《全球半导体设备：市场、市场份额和市场预测》。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58612281ee0c5cd71b89bd52d7ffee7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"134\"/></p><p>2023年底，台积电提高了晶圆价格，并计划在2024年再次提高价格。图7显示了到2024年计算并预计到2025年的新晶圆定价结构。总体而言，台积电将比表中列出的价格提高8.7%。</p><p>重要的是，台积电2025年2nm晶圆价格将达到近3万美元。相比之下，基于814 mm 2的芯片尺寸，台积电可以为英伟达制造87颗H100芯片，良率100%。如上所述，以30,000美元的平均售价计算，这意味着英伟达的每片晶圆收入是其向台积电支付的收入的87倍。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0da8434c7b95d44fe20c3c6bd195400\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"/></p><p>图8显示了台积电、英伟达和AMD过去一年的股价变化表现。它显示了英伟达与其他公司相比的不成比例的增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6bfb985aeb21ba721883d2b7e6e058a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p>图9显示了台积电（包括客户英伟达和AMD）过去3年的库存天数。由于芯片需求疲软，英伟达和AMD的库存天数在2023年上半年有所增加，随后AMD的库存天数降至123天，英伟达的库存天数降至86天。台积电库存在此期间保持持平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db97e038c1b87d8260f98b89b714bb03\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p>由于2023年半导体行业放缓，台积电调整了产能利用率。2022年第三季度，台积电的产能利用率为111%，这意味着需求比供给高出11%。2022年第四季度，利用率开始下降，直到2023年第三季度降至73%的低点，然后在2023年第四季度增至76%。这意味着目前供应超过需求24%，原则上，第四季度供应超过需求24%。</p><p>这种供过于求的情况是后缘芯片（&gt;20nm），其占收入的比例从2023年第三季度的41%下降到2023年第四季度的37%。这对公司来说是关键，因为它继续在领先技术上投入资金-转向3nm和2nm技术。</p><p>作为回应，台积电将2023年的资本支出削减至32%至36%范围的下限，因为个人电脑和智能手机销售缓慢。此外，台积电还制定了一项策略，使其部分N3产能可由N5工具支持，从而无需WFE支出即可实现更高的资本效率。</p><p>领先技术占全年资本支出总额的70%至80%，成熟的专业技术占10%至20%，其余部分分配给先进封装和电子束业务。</p><p>首席执行官CC Wei指出：</p><blockquote><p>“N3成功进入量产，并在2023年下半年实现强劲增长，占2023年晶圆总收入的6%。</p><p>N3E已于2023年第四季度投入量产。</p><p>N2技术开发进展顺利，有望在2025年实现量产。”</p></blockquote><p>台积电被低估了。如果没有制造芯片的公司，英伟达和AMD将不会处于现在的地位，这是英伟达出色的第二季度至第四季度指引的催化剂。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>夜读｜英伟达“得道”，台积电“升天”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n夜读｜英伟达“得道”，台积电“升天”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股研究社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-03-06 22:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>台积电被低估了。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>是一家半导体代工厂，它为AMD和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>等其他公司生产芯片。另一方面，AMD和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>是无晶圆厂半导体公司，它们设计和销售自己的芯片，但将制造外包给台积电。</p><p><strong>由于台积电的收入来自于为包括AMD和英伟达在内的多家公司提供制造服务，其收入增长可能与其客户的收入增长没有直接关联。</strong>整体半导体市场需求、台积电的制造能力及其技术节点的竞争力等因素都会影响台积电相对于其客户的营收表现。</p><p>2023年消费电子市场低迷期间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>有限公司(OTCPK:SSNLF)等存储器公司遭遇重创，台积电营收同比下降4.4%2023年，但在2023年下半年恢复增长18.5%。</p><p>图1显示了台积电2018年第一季度至2023年第四季度的季度总收入（十亿新台币），以及环比收入增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85bb2997009c51b32774c71e02972bcd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"/></p><p><strong>要评估台积电的收入与AMD和英伟达相比是否表现不佳，需要比较这些公司在特定时期内的收入增长率，同时考虑到它们各自的商业模式和市场状况。</strong></p><p>为了进行准确的比较，在图2中，我绘制了2021年第一季度至2023年第四季度台积电的高性能计算(HPC)收入与英伟达的数据中心收入。为了确保视觉兼容性，我将台积电的HPC收入（新台币十亿元）扩大了15倍，而英伟达的收入以百万美元为单位。</p><p>这支持了这样的论点：台积电的HPC和英伟达的数据中心收入之间存在密切关系，直到2023年第二季度英伟达的数据中心收入开始飙升。</p><p>需要明确的是，台积电的HPC产品包括个人计算机中央处理单元（“CPU”）、图形处理器单元（“GPU”）、现场可编程门阵列（“FPGA”）、服务器处理器、加速器和高速网络芯片。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/584c4313a46deab7e79bcc4cd3b99f77\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>在图3中，我添加了AMD同期的数据中心收入。第四季度数据中心业务营收为22.8亿美元，同比增长37.9%，环比增长42.8%。AMD表示，这一强劲增长得益于AMD在12月推出了MI300加速器系列，并获得了来自多个大型云提供商、所有主要OEM和许多领先AI开发商的强大合作伙伴和生态系统支持。2024年第一季度的数据中心指引含糊不清，因为该公司仅指出其将在2024年第一季度实现环比增长，并在2024年超过35亿美元。</p><p>图3显示台积电和AMD的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>（蓝色和绿色虚线）具有可比性，AMD是否能复制第四季度的增长还有待观察，因为我怀疑它正在准备在2025年推出采用HBM3的Mi400来与AMD竞争英伟达的B100。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d02f7885875f66ee91986d297ff18c89\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>我在图4中以图形形式显示了英伟达/TSMC收入（橙色条）和AMD/TSMC收入（灰色条）的比率。这些是英伟达和AMD的实际数据中心收入，以及台积电的HPC收入。</p><p>AMD/台积电比率一直持平，除了2023年第四季度的突增导致<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>（灰色虚线）显示出正斜率。英伟达/台积电趋势线（橙色虚线）也是如此，直到2023年第二季度出现增长。</p><p>显然，<strong>尽管英伟达和AMD的AI GPU是由台积电生产的，但它们正在造成收入差异。</strong></p><p>Mi300的平均售价估计在10,000美元到15,000美元之间（取决于客户和数量）。英伟达的H100处理器售价在25,000美元至40,000美元之间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b0920a879616a0af67000eb55e74d3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>台积电原计划在2023年中期提高芯片价格，但芯片市场及其收入的放缓迫使该公司放弃了这一计划。图6显示了台积电2018年第一季度至2023年第四季度的收入和平均售价。</p><p>重要的是要认识到图6中的平均售价不仅与价格上涨相关，而且与产品组合相关，因为较小的节点晶圆价格较高。2023年第四季度，台积电晶圆收入的很大一部分来自其更先进的工艺节点。具体来说，15%的收入来自N3技术加工的晶圆，而N5和N7技术分别贡献了39%和17%。从货币价值来看，N3技术占29.43亿美元，N5占68.67亿美元，N7占33.354亿美元。</p><p>总体而言，台积电的先进技术节点（包括N7、N5和N3）合计占其晶圆总收入的67%。此外，包括所有基于FinFET的工艺技术在内的更广泛的类别占该公司晶圆销售额的75%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddd8c00b45c00ec711e5e8e7257dba97\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"/></p><p>表1显示了台积电截至2023年1月的价格结构，根据信息网络的报告《全球半导体设备：市场、市场份额和市场预测》。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58612281ee0c5cd71b89bd52d7ffee7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"134\"/></p><p>2023年底，台积电提高了晶圆价格，并计划在2024年再次提高价格。图7显示了到2024年计算并预计到2025年的新晶圆定价结构。总体而言，台积电将比表中列出的价格提高8.7%。</p><p>重要的是，台积电2025年2nm晶圆价格将达到近3万美元。相比之下，基于814 mm 2的芯片尺寸，台积电可以为英伟达制造87颗H100芯片，良率100%。如上所述，以30,000美元的平均售价计算，这意味着英伟达的每片晶圆收入是其向台积电支付的收入的87倍。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0da8434c7b95d44fe20c3c6bd195400\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"/></p><p>图8显示了台积电、英伟达和AMD过去一年的股价变化表现。它显示了英伟达与其他公司相比的不成比例的增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6bfb985aeb21ba721883d2b7e6e058a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p>图9显示了台积电（包括客户英伟达和AMD）过去3年的库存天数。由于芯片需求疲软，英伟达和AMD的库存天数在2023年上半年有所增加，随后AMD的库存天数降至123天，英伟达的库存天数降至86天。台积电库存在此期间保持持平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db97e038c1b87d8260f98b89b714bb03\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p>由于2023年半导体行业放缓，台积电调整了产能利用率。2022年第三季度，台积电的产能利用率为111%，这意味着需求比供给高出11%。2022年第四季度，利用率开始下降，直到2023年第三季度降至73%的低点，然后在2023年第四季度增至76%。这意味着目前供应超过需求24%，原则上，第四季度供应超过需求24%。</p><p>这种供过于求的情况是后缘芯片（&gt;20nm），其占收入的比例从2023年第三季度的41%下降到2023年第四季度的37%。这对公司来说是关键，因为它继续在领先技术上投入资金-转向3nm和2nm技术。</p><p>作为回应，台积电将2023年的资本支出削减至32%至36%范围的下限，因为个人电脑和智能手机销售缓慢。此外，台积电还制定了一项策略，使其部分N3产能可由N5工具支持，从而无需WFE支出即可实现更高的资本效率。</p><p>领先技术占全年资本支出总额的70%至80%，成熟的专业技术占10%至20%，其余部分分配给先进封装和电子束业务。</p><p>首席执行官CC Wei指出：</p><blockquote><p>“N3成功进入量产，并在2023年下半年实现强劲增长，占2023年晶圆总收入的6%。</p><p>N3E已于2023年第四季度投入量产。</p><p>N2技术开发进展顺利，有望在2025年实现量产。”</p></blockquote><p>台积电被低估了。如果没有制造芯片的公司，英伟达和AMD将不会处于现在的地位，这是英伟达出色的第二季度至第四季度指引的催化剂。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0164116bacf75498de0f6a675a0ea698","relate_stocks":{"BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","TSM":"台积电","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD-H1","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BD6J9T35.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN NEXT GENERATION MOBILITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU0276348264.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) GLOBAL DYNAMIC REAL RETURN\"AUP\" (USD) INC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4141":"半导体产品","BK4549":"软银资本持仓","LU1303367103.USD":"摩根大通多经理另类基金 A (acc)","LU2098885051.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - Multi-Manager Alternatives A (acc) 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\"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BJJMRY28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD","BK4575":"芯片概念","IE00BMPRXN33.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN 5G CONNECTIVITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","SG9999000418.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard Global Technology SGD","LU0109392836.USD":"富兰克林科技股A","NVDA":"英伟达","LU1242518931.SGD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Asia Absolute Alpha A Acc SGD","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4579":"人工智能","LU0878005551.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELEC ASIA ALLOCATION OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202403062019588b0dcb12&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2417267830","content_text":"台积电被低估了。台积电是一家半导体代工厂，它为AMD和英伟达等其他公司生产芯片。另一方面，AMD和英伟达是无晶圆厂半导体公司，它们设计和销售自己的芯片，但将制造外包给台积电。由于台积电的收入来自于为包括AMD和英伟达在内的多家公司提供制造服务，其收入增长可能与其客户的收入增长没有直接关联。整体半导体市场需求、台积电的制造能力及其技术节点的竞争力等因素都会影响台积电相对于其客户的营收表现。2023年消费电子市场低迷期间，美光科技和三星电子有限公司(OTCPK:SSNLF)等存储器公司遭遇重创，台积电营收同比下降4.4%2023年，但在2023年下半年恢复增长18.5%。图1显示了台积电2018年第一季度至2023年第四季度的季度总收入（十亿新台币），以及环比收入增长。要评估台积电的收入与AMD和英伟达相比是否表现不佳，需要比较这些公司在特定时期内的收入增长率，同时考虑到它们各自的商业模式和市场状况。为了进行准确的比较，在图2中，我绘制了2021年第一季度至2023年第四季度台积电的高性能计算(HPC)收入与英伟达的数据中心收入。为了确保视觉兼容性，我将台积电的HPC收入（新台币十亿元）扩大了15倍，而英伟达的收入以百万美元为单位。这支持了这样的论点：台积电的HPC和英伟达的数据中心收入之间存在密切关系，直到2023年第二季度英伟达的数据中心收入开始飙升。需要明确的是，台积电的HPC产品包括个人计算机中央处理单元（“CPU”）、图形处理器单元（“GPU”）、现场可编程门阵列（“FPGA”）、服务器处理器、加速器和高速网络芯片。在图3中，我添加了AMD同期的数据中心收入。第四季度数据中心业务营收为22.8亿美元，同比增长37.9%，环比增长42.8%。AMD表示，这一强劲增长得益于AMD在12月推出了MI300加速器系列，并获得了来自多个大型云提供商、所有主要OEM和许多领先AI开发商的强大合作伙伴和生态系统支持。2024年第一季度的数据中心指引含糊不清，因为该公司仅指出其将在2024年第一季度实现环比增长，并在2024年超过35亿美元。图3显示台积电和AMD的趋势线（蓝色和绿色虚线）具有可比性，AMD是否能复制第四季度的增长还有待观察，因为我怀疑它正在准备在2025年推出采用HBM3的Mi400来与AMD竞争英伟达的B100。我在图4中以图形形式显示了英伟达/TSMC收入（橙色条）和AMD/TSMC收入（灰色条）的比率。这些是英伟达和AMD的实际数据中心收入，以及台积电的HPC收入。AMD/台积电比率一直持平，除了2023年第四季度的突增导致趋势线（灰色虚线）显示出正斜率。英伟达/台积电趋势线（橙色虚线）也是如此，直到2023年第二季度出现增长。显然，尽管英伟达和AMD的AI GPU是由台积电生产的，但它们正在造成收入差异。Mi300的平均售价估计在10,000美元到15,000美元之间（取决于客户和数量）。英伟达的H100处理器售价在25,000美元至40,000美元之间。台积电原计划在2023年中期提高芯片价格，但芯片市场及其收入的放缓迫使该公司放弃了这一计划。图6显示了台积电2018年第一季度至2023年第四季度的收入和平均售价。重要的是要认识到图6中的平均售价不仅与价格上涨相关，而且与产品组合相关，因为较小的节点晶圆价格较高。2023年第四季度，台积电晶圆收入的很大一部分来自其更先进的工艺节点。具体来说，15%的收入来自N3技术加工的晶圆，而N5和N7技术分别贡献了39%和17%。从货币价值来看，N3技术占29.43亿美元，N5占68.67亿美元，N7占33.354亿美元。总体而言，台积电的先进技术节点（包括N7、N5和N3）合计占其晶圆总收入的67%。此外，包括所有基于FinFET的工艺技术在内的更广泛的类别占该公司晶圆销售额的75%。表1显示了台积电截至2023年1月的价格结构，根据信息网络的报告《全球半导体设备：市场、市场份额和市场预测》。2023年底，台积电提高了晶圆价格，并计划在2024年再次提高价格。图7显示了到2024年计算并预计到2025年的新晶圆定价结构。总体而言，台积电将比表中列出的价格提高8.7%。重要的是，台积电2025年2nm晶圆价格将达到近3万美元。相比之下，基于814 mm 2的芯片尺寸，台积电可以为英伟达制造87颗H100芯片，良率100%。如上所述，以30,000美元的平均售价计算，这意味着英伟达的每片晶圆收入是其向台积电支付的收入的87倍。图8显示了台积电、英伟达和AMD过去一年的股价变化表现。它显示了英伟达与其他公司相比的不成比例的增长。图9显示了台积电（包括客户英伟达和AMD）过去3年的库存天数。由于芯片需求疲软，英伟达和AMD的库存天数在2023年上半年有所增加，随后AMD的库存天数降至123天，英伟达的库存天数降至86天。台积电库存在此期间保持持平。由于2023年半导体行业放缓，台积电调整了产能利用率。2022年第三季度，台积电的产能利用率为111%，这意味着需求比供给高出11%。2022年第四季度，利用率开始下降，直到2023年第三季度降至73%的低点，然后在2023年第四季度增至76%。这意味着目前供应超过需求24%，原则上，第四季度供应超过需求24%。这种供过于求的情况是后缘芯片（>20nm），其占收入的比例从2023年第三季度的41%下降到2023年第四季度的37%。这对公司来说是关键，因为它继续在领先技术上投入资金-转向3nm和2nm技术。作为回应，台积电将2023年的资本支出削减至32%至36%范围的下限，因为个人电脑和智能手机销售缓慢。此外，台积电还制定了一项策略，使其部分N3产能可由N5工具支持，从而无需WFE支出即可实现更高的资本效率。领先技术占全年资本支出总额的70%至80%，成熟的专业技术占10%至20%，其余部分分配给先进封装和电子束业务。首席执行官CC 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我看很多分析，英伟达现在的股价要接近拐点，跟风的风险很大，台积电本来股价就很低，虽然同样是芯片，但是上涨的逻辑不同，有没有大神预测一下今年台积电预计上涨到什么位置？","text":"$TSM(TSM)$ 台积电对比英伟达上涨的逻辑 我看很多分析，英伟达现在的股价要接近拐点，跟风的风险很大，台积电本来股价就很低，虽然同样是芯片，但是上涨的逻辑不同，有没有大神预测一下今年台积电预计上涨到什么位置？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/271917835710504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3475284482904298","authorId":"3475284482904298","name":"james2019","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f0d1452bd51827863da6c95ab6adc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3475284482904298","authorIdStr":"3475284482904298"},"content":"台积电是TDR，存托凭证怎么可能让你疯涨？买一点留给下一代，别指望暴涨","text":"台积电是TDR，存托凭证怎么可能让你疯涨？买一点留给下一代，别指望暴涨","html":"台积电是TDR，存托凭证怎么可能让你疯涨？买一点留给下一代，别指望暴涨"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628063768,"gmtCreate":1672759419354,"gmtModify":1672759958316,"author":{"id":"4121931783507980","authorId":"4121931783507980","name":"耳东田木","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7e7f1043982410bd37f38de82fbaac","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121931783507980","authorIdStr":"4121931783507980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"实际数据告诉我，你可能想多了","listText":"实际数据告诉我，你可能想多了","text":"实际数据告诉我，你可能想多了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628063768","repostId":"1155044358","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1205,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":623390769,"gmtCreate":1671029427351,"gmtModify":1671030274975,"author":{"id":"4121931783507980","authorId":"4121931783507980","name":"耳东田木","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7e7f1043982410bd37f38de82fbaac","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121931783507980","authorIdStr":"4121931783507980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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我看很多分析，英伟达现在的股价要接近拐点，跟风的风险很大，台积电本来股价就很低，虽然同样是芯片，但是上涨的逻辑不同，有没有大神预测一下今年台积电预计上涨到什么位置？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/271917835710504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3475284482904298","authorId":"3475284482904298","name":"james2019","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28f0d1452bd51827863da6c95ab6adc7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3475284482904298","authorIdStr":"3475284482904298"},"content":"台积电是TDR，存托凭证怎么可能让你疯涨？买一点留给下一代，别指望暴涨","text":"台积电是TDR，存托凭证怎么可能让你疯涨？买一点留给下一代，别指望暴涨","html":"台积电是TDR，存托凭证怎么可能让你疯涨？买一点留给下一代，别指望暴涨"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321397507469320,"gmtCreate":1719496360622,"gmtModify":1719496361911,"author":{"id":"4121931783507980","authorId":"4121931783507980","name":"耳东田木","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7e7f1043982410bd37f38de82fbaac","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121931783507980","authorIdStr":"4121931783507980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp; 二季度的财报预计什么发呢[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp; 二季度的财报预计什么发呢[得意]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 二季度的财报预计什么发呢[得意]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321397507469320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1581,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":281449230123280,"gmtCreate":1709741579529,"gmtModify":1709741637423,"author":{"id":"4121931783507980","authorId":"4121931783507980","name":"耳东田木","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd7e7f1043982410bd37f38de82fbaac","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4121931783507980","authorIdStr":"4121931783507980"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"一句话理解：英伟达增长带动台积电增长，反之亦然。","listText":"一句话理解：英伟达增长带动台积电增长，反之亦然。","text":"一句话理解：英伟达增长带动台积电增长，反之亦然。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/281449230123280","repostId":"2417267830","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2417267830","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"美股研究社，一个专注研究美股的平台，专业的美股投资人都在这。想了解美国股市行情、美股开户、美股资讯、美股公司；想获得一手美股重磅信息；想加入美股交流社群，敬请关注我们吧。","home_visible":0,"media_name":"美股研究社","id":"1074069735","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6"},"pubTimestamp":1709736625,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2417267830?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-06 22:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"夜读｜英伟达“得道”，台积电“升天”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2417267830","media":"美股研究社","summary":"英伟达/台积电趋势线也是如此，直到2023年第二季度出现增长。显然，尽管英伟达和AMD的AI GPU是由台积电生产的，但它们正在造成收入差异。如上所述，以30,000美元的平均售价计算，这意味着英伟达的每片晶圆收入是其向台积电支付的收入的87倍。台积电库存在此期间保持持平。作为回应，台积电将2023年的资本支出削减至32%至36%范围的下限，因为个人电脑和智能手机销售缓慢。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>台积电被低估了。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>是一家半导体代工厂，它为AMD和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>等其他公司生产芯片。另一方面，AMD和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>是无晶圆厂半导体公司，它们设计和销售自己的芯片，但将制造外包给台积电。</p><p><strong>由于台积电的收入来自于为包括AMD和英伟达在内的多家公司提供制造服务，其收入增长可能与其客户的收入增长没有直接关联。</strong>整体半导体市场需求、台积电的制造能力及其技术节点的竞争力等因素都会影响台积电相对于其客户的营收表现。</p><p>2023年消费电子市场低迷期间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>有限公司(OTCPK:SSNLF)等存储器公司遭遇重创，台积电营收同比下降4.4%2023年，但在2023年下半年恢复增长18.5%。</p><p>图1显示了台积电2018年第一季度至2023年第四季度的季度总收入（十亿新台币），以及环比收入增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85bb2997009c51b32774c71e02972bcd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"/></p><p><strong>要评估台积电的收入与AMD和英伟达相比是否表现不佳，需要比较这些公司在特定时期内的收入增长率，同时考虑到它们各自的商业模式和市场状况。</strong></p><p>为了进行准确的比较，在图2中，我绘制了2021年第一季度至2023年第四季度台积电的高性能计算(HPC)收入与英伟达的数据中心收入。为了确保视觉兼容性，我将台积电的HPC收入（新台币十亿元）扩大了15倍，而英伟达的收入以百万美元为单位。</p><p>这支持了这样的论点：台积电的HPC和英伟达的数据中心收入之间存在密切关系，直到2023年第二季度英伟达的数据中心收入开始飙升。</p><p>需要明确的是，台积电的HPC产品包括个人计算机中央处理单元（“CPU”）、图形处理器单元（“GPU”）、现场可编程门阵列（“FPGA”）、服务器处理器、加速器和高速网络芯片。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/584c4313a46deab7e79bcc4cd3b99f77\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>在图3中，我添加了AMD同期的数据中心收入。第四季度数据中心业务营收为22.8亿美元，同比增长37.9%，环比增长42.8%。AMD表示，这一强劲增长得益于AMD在12月推出了MI300加速器系列，并获得了来自多个大型云提供商、所有主要OEM和许多领先AI开发商的强大合作伙伴和生态系统支持。2024年第一季度的数据中心指引含糊不清，因为该公司仅指出其将在2024年第一季度实现环比增长，并在2024年超过35亿美元。</p><p>图3显示台积电和AMD的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>（蓝色和绿色虚线）具有可比性，AMD是否能复制第四季度的增长还有待观察，因为我怀疑它正在准备在2025年推出采用HBM3的Mi400来与AMD竞争英伟达的B100。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d02f7885875f66ee91986d297ff18c89\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>我在图4中以图形形式显示了英伟达/TSMC收入（橙色条）和AMD/TSMC收入（灰色条）的比率。这些是英伟达和AMD的实际数据中心收入，以及台积电的HPC收入。</p><p>AMD/台积电比率一直持平，除了2023年第四季度的突增导致<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>（灰色虚线）显示出正斜率。英伟达/台积电趋势线（橙色虚线）也是如此，直到2023年第二季度出现增长。</p><p>显然，<strong>尽管英伟达和AMD的AI GPU是由台积电生产的，但它们正在造成收入差异。</strong></p><p>Mi300的平均售价估计在10,000美元到15,000美元之间（取决于客户和数量）。英伟达的H100处理器售价在25,000美元至40,000美元之间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b0920a879616a0af67000eb55e74d3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>台积电原计划在2023年中期提高芯片价格，但芯片市场及其收入的放缓迫使该公司放弃了这一计划。图6显示了台积电2018年第一季度至2023年第四季度的收入和平均售价。</p><p>重要的是要认识到图6中的平均售价不仅与价格上涨相关，而且与产品组合相关，因为较小的节点晶圆价格较高。2023年第四季度，台积电晶圆收入的很大一部分来自其更先进的工艺节点。具体来说，15%的收入来自N3技术加工的晶圆，而N5和N7技术分别贡献了39%和17%。从货币价值来看，N3技术占29.43亿美元，N5占68.67亿美元，N7占33.354亿美元。</p><p>总体而言，台积电的先进技术节点（包括N7、N5和N3）合计占其晶圆总收入的67%。此外，包括所有基于FinFET的工艺技术在内的更广泛的类别占该公司晶圆销售额的75%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddd8c00b45c00ec711e5e8e7257dba97\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"/></p><p>表1显示了台积电截至2023年1月的价格结构，根据信息网络的报告《全球半导体设备：市场、市场份额和市场预测》。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58612281ee0c5cd71b89bd52d7ffee7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"134\"/></p><p>2023年底，台积电提高了晶圆价格，并计划在2024年再次提高价格。图7显示了到2024年计算并预计到2025年的新晶圆定价结构。总体而言，台积电将比表中列出的价格提高8.7%。</p><p>重要的是，台积电2025年2nm晶圆价格将达到近3万美元。相比之下，基于814 mm 2的芯片尺寸，台积电可以为英伟达制造87颗H100芯片，良率100%。如上所述，以30,000美元的平均售价计算，这意味着英伟达的每片晶圆收入是其向台积电支付的收入的87倍。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0da8434c7b95d44fe20c3c6bd195400\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"/></p><p>图8显示了台积电、英伟达和AMD过去一年的股价变化表现。它显示了英伟达与其他公司相比的不成比例的增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6bfb985aeb21ba721883d2b7e6e058a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p>图9显示了台积电（包括客户英伟达和AMD）过去3年的库存天数。由于芯片需求疲软，英伟达和AMD的库存天数在2023年上半年有所增加，随后AMD的库存天数降至123天，英伟达的库存天数降至86天。台积电库存在此期间保持持平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db97e038c1b87d8260f98b89b714bb03\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p>由于2023年半导体行业放缓，台积电调整了产能利用率。2022年第三季度，台积电的产能利用率为111%，这意味着需求比供给高出11%。2022年第四季度，利用率开始下降，直到2023年第三季度降至73%的低点，然后在2023年第四季度增至76%。这意味着目前供应超过需求24%，原则上，第四季度供应超过需求24%。</p><p>这种供过于求的情况是后缘芯片（&gt;20nm），其占收入的比例从2023年第三季度的41%下降到2023年第四季度的37%。这对公司来说是关键，因为它继续在领先技术上投入资金-转向3nm和2nm技术。</p><p>作为回应，台积电将2023年的资本支出削减至32%至36%范围的下限，因为个人电脑和智能手机销售缓慢。此外，台积电还制定了一项策略，使其部分N3产能可由N5工具支持，从而无需WFE支出即可实现更高的资本效率。</p><p>领先技术占全年资本支出总额的70%至80%，成熟的专业技术占10%至20%，其余部分分配给先进封装和电子束业务。</p><p>首席执行官CC Wei指出：</p><blockquote><p>“N3成功进入量产，并在2023年下半年实现强劲增长，占2023年晶圆总收入的6%。</p><p>N3E已于2023年第四季度投入量产。</p><p>N2技术开发进展顺利，有望在2025年实现量产。”</p></blockquote><p>台积电被低估了。如果没有制造芯片的公司，英伟达和AMD将不会处于现在的地位，这是英伟达出色的第二季度至第四季度指引的催化剂。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>夜读｜英伟达“得道”，台积电“升天”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n夜读｜英伟达“得道”，台积电“升天”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09c69c7ea1d4781a9de127f9b375dd6);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股研究社 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-03-06 22:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>台积电被低估了。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>是一家半导体代工厂，它为AMD和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>等其他公司生产芯片。另一方面，AMD和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>是无晶圆厂半导体公司，它们设计和销售自己的芯片，但将制造外包给台积电。</p><p><strong>由于台积电的收入来自于为包括AMD和英伟达在内的多家公司提供制造服务，其收入增长可能与其客户的收入增长没有直接关联。</strong>整体半导体市场需求、台积电的制造能力及其技术节点的竞争力等因素都会影响台积电相对于其客户的营收表现。</p><p>2023年消费电子市场低迷期间，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>有限公司(OTCPK:SSNLF)等存储器公司遭遇重创，台积电营收同比下降4.4%2023年，但在2023年下半年恢复增长18.5%。</p><p>图1显示了台积电2018年第一季度至2023年第四季度的季度总收入（十亿新台币），以及环比收入增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85bb2997009c51b32774c71e02972bcd\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"/></p><p><strong>要评估台积电的收入与AMD和英伟达相比是否表现不佳，需要比较这些公司在特定时期内的收入增长率，同时考虑到它们各自的商业模式和市场状况。</strong></p><p>为了进行准确的比较，在图2中，我绘制了2021年第一季度至2023年第四季度台积电的高性能计算(HPC)收入与英伟达的数据中心收入。为了确保视觉兼容性，我将台积电的HPC收入（新台币十亿元）扩大了15倍，而英伟达的收入以百万美元为单位。</p><p>这支持了这样的论点：台积电的HPC和英伟达的数据中心收入之间存在密切关系，直到2023年第二季度英伟达的数据中心收入开始飙升。</p><p>需要明确的是，台积电的HPC产品包括个人计算机中央处理单元（“CPU”）、图形处理器单元（“GPU”）、现场可编程门阵列（“FPGA”）、服务器处理器、加速器和高速网络芯片。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/584c4313a46deab7e79bcc4cd3b99f77\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>在图3中，我添加了AMD同期的数据中心收入。第四季度数据中心业务营收为22.8亿美元，同比增长37.9%，环比增长42.8%。AMD表示，这一强劲增长得益于AMD在12月推出了MI300加速器系列，并获得了来自多个大型云提供商、所有主要OEM和许多领先AI开发商的强大合作伙伴和生态系统支持。2024年第一季度的数据中心指引含糊不清，因为该公司仅指出其将在2024年第一季度实现环比增长，并在2024年超过35亿美元。</p><p>图3显示台积电和AMD的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>（蓝色和绿色虚线）具有可比性，AMD是否能复制第四季度的增长还有待观察，因为我怀疑它正在准备在2025年推出采用HBM3的Mi400来与AMD竞争英伟达的B100。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d02f7885875f66ee91986d297ff18c89\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>我在图4中以图形形式显示了英伟达/TSMC收入（橙色条）和AMD/TSMC收入（灰色条）的比率。这些是英伟达和AMD的实际数据中心收入，以及台积电的HPC收入。</p><p>AMD/台积电比率一直持平，除了2023年第四季度的突增导致<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/42T.SI\">趋势线</a>（灰色虚线）显示出正斜率。英伟达/台积电趋势线（橙色虚线）也是如此，直到2023年第二季度出现增长。</p><p>显然，<strong>尽管英伟达和AMD的AI GPU是由台积电生产的，但它们正在造成收入差异。</strong></p><p>Mi300的平均售价估计在10,000美元到15,000美元之间（取决于客户和数量）。英伟达的H100处理器售价在25,000美元至40,000美元之间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67b0920a879616a0af67000eb55e74d3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\"/></p><p>台积电原计划在2023年中期提高芯片价格，但芯片市场及其收入的放缓迫使该公司放弃了这一计划。图6显示了台积电2018年第一季度至2023年第四季度的收入和平均售价。</p><p>重要的是要认识到图6中的平均售价不仅与价格上涨相关，而且与产品组合相关，因为较小的节点晶圆价格较高。2023年第四季度，台积电晶圆收入的很大一部分来自其更先进的工艺节点。具体来说，15%的收入来自N3技术加工的晶圆，而N5和N7技术分别贡献了39%和17%。从货币价值来看，N3技术占29.43亿美元，N5占68.67亿美元，N7占33.354亿美元。</p><p>总体而言，台积电的先进技术节点（包括N7、N5和N3）合计占其晶圆总收入的67%。此外，包括所有基于FinFET的工艺技术在内的更广泛的类别占该公司晶圆销售额的75%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddd8c00b45c00ec711e5e8e7257dba97\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"/></p><p>表1显示了台积电截至2023年1月的价格结构，根据信息网络的报告《全球半导体设备：市场、市场份额和市场预测》。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58612281ee0c5cd71b89bd52d7ffee7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"134\"/></p><p>2023年底，台积电提高了晶圆价格，并计划在2024年再次提高价格。图7显示了到2024年计算并预计到2025年的新晶圆定价结构。总体而言，台积电将比表中列出的价格提高8.7%。</p><p>重要的是，台积电2025年2nm晶圆价格将达到近3万美元。相比之下，基于814 mm 2的芯片尺寸，台积电可以为英伟达制造87颗H100芯片，良率100%。如上所述，以30,000美元的平均售价计算，这意味着英伟达的每片晶圆收入是其向台积电支付的收入的87倍。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0da8434c7b95d44fe20c3c6bd195400\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"463\"/></p><p>图8显示了台积电、英伟达和AMD过去一年的股价变化表现。它显示了英伟达与其他公司相比的不成比例的增长。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6bfb985aeb21ba721883d2b7e6e058a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p>图9显示了台积电（包括客户英伟达和AMD）过去3年的库存天数。由于芯片需求疲软，英伟达和AMD的库存天数在2023年上半年有所增加，随后AMD的库存天数降至123天，英伟达的库存天数降至86天。台积电库存在此期间保持持平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db97e038c1b87d8260f98b89b714bb03\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"456\"/></p><p>由于2023年半导体行业放缓，台积电调整了产能利用率。2022年第三季度，台积电的产能利用率为111%，这意味着需求比供给高出11%。2022年第四季度，利用率开始下降，直到2023年第三季度降至73%的低点，然后在2023年第四季度增至76%。这意味着目前供应超过需求24%，原则上，第四季度供应超过需求24%。</p><p>这种供过于求的情况是后缘芯片（&gt;20nm），其占收入的比例从2023年第三季度的41%下降到2023年第四季度的37%。这对公司来说是关键，因为它继续在领先技术上投入资金-转向3nm和2nm技术。</p><p>作为回应，台积电将2023年的资本支出削减至32%至36%范围的下限，因为个人电脑和智能手机销售缓慢。此外，台积电还制定了一项策略，使其部分N3产能可由N5工具支持，从而无需WFE支出即可实现更高的资本效率。</p><p>领先技术占全年资本支出总额的70%至80%，成熟的专业技术占10%至20%，其余部分分配给先进封装和电子束业务。</p><p>首席执行官CC Wei指出：</p><blockquote><p>“N3成功进入量产，并在2023年下半年实现强劲增长，占2023年晶圆总收入的6%。</p><p>N3E已于2023年第四季度投入量产。</p><p>N2技术开发进展顺利，有望在2025年实现量产。”</p></blockquote><p>台积电被低估了。如果没有制造芯片的公司，英伟达和AMD将不会处于现在的地位，这是英伟达出色的第二季度至第四季度指引的催化剂。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0164116bacf75498de0f6a675a0ea698","relate_stocks":{"BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","TSM":"台积电","LU0672654240.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A 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ACC"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202403062019588b0dcb12&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2417267830","content_text":"台积电被低估了。台积电是一家半导体代工厂，它为AMD和英伟达等其他公司生产芯片。另一方面，AMD和英伟达是无晶圆厂半导体公司，它们设计和销售自己的芯片，但将制造外包给台积电。由于台积电的收入来自于为包括AMD和英伟达在内的多家公司提供制造服务，其收入增长可能与其客户的收入增长没有直接关联。整体半导体市场需求、台积电的制造能力及其技术节点的竞争力等因素都会影响台积电相对于其客户的营收表现。2023年消费电子市场低迷期间，美光科技和三星电子有限公司(OTCPK:SSNLF)等存储器公司遭遇重创，台积电营收同比下降4.4%2023年，但在2023年下半年恢复增长18.5%。图1显示了台积电2018年第一季度至2023年第四季度的季度总收入（十亿新台币），以及环比收入增长。要评估台积电的收入与AMD和英伟达相比是否表现不佳，需要比较这些公司在特定时期内的收入增长率，同时考虑到它们各自的商业模式和市场状况。为了进行准确的比较，在图2中，我绘制了2021年第一季度至2023年第四季度台积电的高性能计算(HPC)收入与英伟达的数据中心收入。为了确保视觉兼容性，我将台积电的HPC收入（新台币十亿元）扩大了15倍，而英伟达的收入以百万美元为单位。这支持了这样的论点：台积电的HPC和英伟达的数据中心收入之间存在密切关系，直到2023年第二季度英伟达的数据中心收入开始飙升。需要明确的是，台积电的HPC产品包括个人计算机中央处理单元（“CPU”）、图形处理器单元（“GPU”）、现场可编程门阵列（“FPGA”）、服务器处理器、加速器和高速网络芯片。在图3中，我添加了AMD同期的数据中心收入。第四季度数据中心业务营收为22.8亿美元，同比增长37.9%，环比增长42.8%。AMD表示，这一强劲增长得益于AMD在12月推出了MI300加速器系列，并获得了来自多个大型云提供商、所有主要OEM和许多领先AI开发商的强大合作伙伴和生态系统支持。2024年第一季度的数据中心指引含糊不清，因为该公司仅指出其将在2024年第一季度实现环比增长，并在2024年超过35亿美元。图3显示台积电和AMD的趋势线（蓝色和绿色虚线）具有可比性，AMD是否能复制第四季度的增长还有待观察，因为我怀疑它正在准备在2025年推出采用HBM3的Mi400来与AMD竞争英伟达的B100。我在图4中以图形形式显示了英伟达/TSMC收入（橙色条）和AMD/TSMC收入（灰色条）的比率。这些是英伟达和AMD的实际数据中心收入，以及台积电的HPC收入。AMD/台积电比率一直持平，除了2023年第四季度的突增导致趋势线（灰色虚线）显示出正斜率。英伟达/台积电趋势线（橙色虚线）也是如此，直到2023年第二季度出现增长。显然，尽管英伟达和AMD的AI GPU是由台积电生产的，但它们正在造成收入差异。Mi300的平均售价估计在10,000美元到15,000美元之间（取决于客户和数量）。英伟达的H100处理器售价在25,000美元至40,000美元之间。台积电原计划在2023年中期提高芯片价格，但芯片市场及其收入的放缓迫使该公司放弃了这一计划。图6显示了台积电2018年第一季度至2023年第四季度的收入和平均售价。重要的是要认识到图6中的平均售价不仅与价格上涨相关，而且与产品组合相关，因为较小的节点晶圆价格较高。2023年第四季度，台积电晶圆收入的很大一部分来自其更先进的工艺节点。具体来说，15%的收入来自N3技术加工的晶圆，而N5和N7技术分别贡献了39%和17%。从货币价值来看，N3技术占29.43亿美元，N5占68.67亿美元，N7占33.354亿美元。总体而言，台积电的先进技术节点（包括N7、N5和N3）合计占其晶圆总收入的67%。此外，包括所有基于FinFET的工艺技术在内的更广泛的类别占该公司晶圆销售额的75%。表1显示了台积电截至2023年1月的价格结构，根据信息网络的报告《全球半导体设备：市场、市场份额和市场预测》。2023年底，台积电提高了晶圆价格，并计划在2024年再次提高价格。图7显示了到2024年计算并预计到2025年的新晶圆定价结构。总体而言，台积电将比表中列出的价格提高8.7%。重要的是，台积电2025年2nm晶圆价格将达到近3万美元。相比之下，基于814 mm 2的芯片尺寸，台积电可以为英伟达制造87颗H100芯片，良率100%。如上所述，以30,000美元的平均售价计算，这意味着英伟达的每片晶圆收入是其向台积电支付的收入的87倍。图8显示了台积电、英伟达和AMD过去一年的股价变化表现。它显示了英伟达与其他公司相比的不成比例的增长。图9显示了台积电（包括客户英伟达和AMD）过去3年的库存天数。由于芯片需求疲软，英伟达和AMD的库存天数在2023年上半年有所增加，随后AMD的库存天数降至123天，英伟达的库存天数降至86天。台积电库存在此期间保持持平。由于2023年半导体行业放缓，台积电调整了产能利用率。2022年第三季度，台积电的产能利用率为111%，这意味着需求比供给高出11%。2022年第四季度，利用率开始下降，直到2023年第三季度降至73%的低点，然后在2023年第四季度增至76%。这意味着目前供应超过需求24%，原则上，第四季度供应超过需求24%。这种供过于求的情况是后缘芯片（>20nm），其占收入的比例从2023年第三季度的41%下降到2023年第四季度的37%。这对公司来说是关键，因为它继续在领先技术上投入资金-转向3nm和2nm技术。作为回应，台积电将2023年的资本支出削减至32%至36%范围的下限，因为个人电脑和智能手机销售缓慢。此外，台积电还制定了一项策略，使其部分N3产能可由N5工具支持，从而无需WFE支出即可实现更高的资本效率。领先技术占全年资本支出总额的70%至80%，成熟的专业技术占10%至20%，其余部分分配给先进封装和电子束业务。首席执行官CC 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