老汉特朗普的个人主页 - 老虎社区

老汉特朗普

老汉特朗普

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IP属地：山东

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老汉特朗普

04-24

$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$

老汉特朗普

03-20

$维升药业-B(02561)$ 中了一手，大约能赚多少？？

老汉特朗普

04-22

$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$

老汉特朗普

04-03

$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$

老汉特朗普

06-20 16:52

艹，艹艹，艹艹艹，艹艹艹艹！

三花智控：发售价厘定为每股H股22.53港元

老汉特朗普

06-20 15:56

过度发新股，必将走上a股老路

中金：Hibor骤降，如何影响港股？

老汉特朗普

02-21

$黄金/美元(XAUUSD.FOREX)$

老汉特朗普

02-25

坚定持有！天荒地老！

老汉特朗普

05-30

我炒美股的时候正是高点买了点 $英伟达(NVDA)$ $T-REX 2X LONG NVIDIA DAILY TARGET ETF(NVDX)$ 一直没有解套，不过我坚信，肯定解套在六月！大家给我打打气😁

老汉特朗普

03-26

$维升药业-B(02561)$ 第一次中，就深坑被埋！艹

老汉特朗普

03-21

$维升药业-B(02561)$ 第一次中，就进了大坑！

老汉特朗普

02-11

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 马斯克动了财阀的蛋糕，估计会从股市上把马斯克干掉！

老汉特朗普

06-18 16:56

$海天味业(03288)$

老汉特朗普

02-27

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 看好，一百年不许变

老汉特朗普

02-03

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 感觉特斯拉到280可以近点

老汉特朗普

05-30

$石药集团(01093)$ 石药集团最近还是相当的给力！👍

老汉特朗普

05-06

$石药集团(01093)$ 今天跌了好多啊，啥情况？？？

老汉特朗普

02-19

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 我让老虎ai给我推荐今年能翻倍的股票，他给我推荐的是英伟达

老汉特朗普

06-05

英伟达亲儿子今天不灵了？？

美股异动 | 英伟达概念股涨跌不一，NEBIUS涨超16%，CoreWeave跌超8%

老汉特朗普

06-03

这辈子就靠英伟达翻身了，千万不要掉链子！

英伟达涨超3%，杰富瑞预测英伟达今年利润率可能高达80%

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18:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"三花智控：发售价厘定为每股H股22.53港元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182013338","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月19日，$三花智控$公告，于2025年6月19日，发售价已厘定为每股H股22.53港元。本公司预期于2025年6月20日（星期五）公布国际发售的踊跃程度、香港公开发售的申请水平、香港发售股份的分配基准及香港公开发售的分配结果的详情。假设全球发售于2025年6月23日（星期一）上午8时正或之前成为无条件，则预计H股将于2025年6月23日（星期一）上午9时正开始在联交所主板买卖。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>6月19日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02050\">三花智控</a>公告，于2025年6月19日，发售价已厘定为每股H股22.53港元（不包括1.0%经纪佣金、0.0027%证监会交易征费、0.00565%联交所交易费及0.00015%会财局交易征费）。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d1b535b10f3e79147b4435fe9209ff1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"751\"/></p><p>发售量调整权已获悉数行使，据此，本公司将按发售价发行及配发5404.95万股额外发售股份，占全球发售项下初步可供认购发售股份总数约15.0%。</p><p>本公司预期于2025年6月20日（星期五）公布国际发售的踊跃程度、香港公开发售的申请水平、香港发售股份的分配基准及香港公开发售的分配结果的详情。假设全球发售于2025年6月23日（星期一）上午8时正（香港时间）或之前成为无条件，则预计H股将于2025年6月23日（星期一）上午9时正（香港时间）开始在联交所主板买卖。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n三花智控：发售价厘定为每股H股22.53港元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-06-19 18:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>6月19日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02050\">三花智控</a>公告，于2025年6月19日，发售价已厘定为每股H股22.53港元（不包括1.0%经纪佣金、0.0027%证监会交易征费、0.00565%联交所交易费及0.00015%会财局交易征费）。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d1b535b10f3e79147b4435fe9209ff1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"751\"/></p><p>发售量调整权已获悉数行使，据此，本公司将按发售价发行及配发5404.95万股额外发售股份，占全球发售项下初步可供认购发售股份总数约15.0%。</p><p>本公司预期于2025年6月20日（星期五）公布国际发售的踊跃程度、香港公开发售的申请水平、香港发售股份的分配基准及香港公开发售的分配结果的详情。假设全球发售于2025年6月23日（星期一）上午8时正（香港时间）或之前成为无条件，则预计H股将于2025年6月23日（星期一）上午9时正（香港时间）开始在联交所主板买卖。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b69e234a63c2c0a69ccede7b0faaa18","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182013338","content_text":"6月19日，三花智控公告，于2025年6月19日，发售价已厘定为每股H股22.53港元（不包括1.0%经纪佣金、0.0027%证监会交易征费、0.00565%联交所交易费及0.00015%会财局交易征费）。发售量调整权已获悉数行使，据此，本公司将按发售价发行及配发5404.95万股额外发售股份，占全球发售项下初步可供认购发售股份总数约15.0%。本公司预期于2025年6月20日（星期五）公布国际发售的踊跃程度、香港公开发售的申请水平、香港发售股份的分配基准及香港公开发售的分配结果的详情。假设全球发售于2025年6月23日（星期一）上午8时正（香港时间）或之前成为无条件，则预计H股将于2025年6月23日（星期一）上午9时正（香港时间）开始在联交所主板买卖。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"002050":1.1,"02050":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":448033801117808,"gmtCreate":1750406183018,"gmtModify":1750406184051,"author":{"id":"4123405616306630","authorId":"4123405616306630","name":"老汉特朗普","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec196b433dc612e52ea1090eb6da3271","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4123405616306630","authorIdStr":"4123405616306630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"过度发新股，必将走上a股老路","listText":"过度发新股，必将走上a股老路","text":"过度发新股，必将走上a股老路","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/448033801117808","repostId":"2544979581","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2544979581","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1750387245,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2544979581?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-06-20 10:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"中金：Hibor骤降，如何影响港股？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2544979581","media":"中金点睛","summary":"金管局不能决定何时做，但却可以决定如何做","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>“对等”关税后，港股一举跌破2018年底上一轮贸易摩擦后的情绪低点，但在触及我们判断的恒指20,500点支撑位后企稳反弹并修复至今（《“对等关税”的冲击会有多大？》），尤其是近期，在新消费和创新药等板块的提振下，加上中美关税谈判一度的乐观预期，共同推动市场近期迎来新一轮上涨，但始终也未能有效突破我们给出的23,000-24,000区间，近期触及上沿后再度连续回撤。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ede1bfc2a61e71e6392ac55a4139aef2\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>此外，与共识印象不同的是，<strong>从4月2日对等关税以来，港股实际上跑输全球市场，且集中度和拥挤度不断抬升，</strong>新消费、创新药、必需品零售、银行等领先，可选零售、消费者服务、家庭用品、半导体板块跑输。</p><p>图表：4月2日以来港股实际上跑输全球主要市场</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ad068a277915147c81dd7f107f1651de\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"503\"/></p><p>资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部</p><p>图表：新消费、创新药、必需零售、银行等大幅领先</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a18611e6e5b4b00b28da4075b1c8741c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"515\"/></p><p>注：新消费板块包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06181\">老铺黄金</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01929\">周大福</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02097\">蜜雪集团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01364\">古茗</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00325\">布鲁可</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00425\">敏实集团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01318\">毛戈平</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02555\">茶百道</a>资料来源：FactSet，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">中金公司</a>研究部</p><p><strong>换一个视角，从流动性角度看，</strong>5月初以来恰逢香港银行同业拆息利率Hibor骤降（1月期Hibor从4.1%降至0.6%的历史低位，隔夜Hibor则从4.5%降至0附近，创2000年有数据以来历史新低），<strong>这表明港币短期流动性较为充裕，</strong>而充裕的流动性即便不是绝对主导，也会对市场走势尤其是新消费与创新药等抱团集中的成长股走势有重要影响。</p><p>那么，<strong>Hibor为何能在美债利率维持高位下脱离联系汇率制度约束如此大幅回落？这一回落又通过什么机制影响港股？后续Hibor可能走势会怎样，又将如何影响市场？</strong></p><p>图表：港币Hibor利率从5月初以来快速下行</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/523361987604d0ea9c9b3696c49f9bcb\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"506\"/></p><p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>Hibor为何骤降？联系汇率下的自动操作，但幅度却大超预期，或是对冲IPO的流动性缺口</strong></p><p>按常理，受限于港币与美元的联系汇率制度安排（美元兑港币汇率维持在7.75的强方和7.85弱方保证之间），香港政策利率（基准利率 Base rate）严格锚定美联储政策利率（联邦基金利率 Federal Funds Rate），而以基准利率为中枢的市场利率虽会有偏离，但都在一定范围以内，也难以长期背离。然而，港币Hibor隔夜、1月和3月利率从5月初以来快速下行，与美元同期限利率利差创2000年以来新高，港美隔夜利率利差达到4.3ppt，1月和3月利率利差分别为3.7ppt和2.6ppt。<strong>为何会出现这种情形？</strong></p><p>图表：香港政策利率（基准利率 Base rate）严格锚定美联储政策利率（联邦基金利率 Federal Funds Rate）</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa7ac47ca0149a644b3b001753d5467c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"368\"/></p><p>资料来源：香港金管局，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>► Hibor回落本身并毫无意外之处，是联系汇率制下自动操作的必然结果，但幅度之大却超出预期。</strong>要理解这一问题，就不得不谈到香港金管局在联系汇率制下的操作机制。联系汇率制度属于货币局制度（Currency Board），是一种固定汇率制安排，香港自1983年10月17日实施。在这一安排下，金管局会通过自动利率调节机制及履行兑换保证的坚决承诺来维持港元汇率维持在7.75-7.85区间。例如，当港币触及7.75强方兑换保证时，金管局会投放港币，扩张货币基础，体现为金管局账户总结余的增加，这会导致银行间港币流动性趋向宽松，拉低Hibor利率，也就自然缓解了港币的升值压力；反之，当港币触及7.85弱方保证时，则会反向操作。<strong>本轮Hibor的走弱恰是源自5月2日港币触及强方保证后的自然结果，因此金管局的这一操作和由此导致的Hibor走弱本身都没有任何“神秘”之处。</strong></p><p>图表：本轮Hibor走弱源自5月2日港币触及强方保证后自然且自动的结果</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c47d95c7e5cae987bd3923c8820b472c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"512\"/></p><p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>► 但意外之处在于为何金管局投放如此多的流动性，进而才导致Hibor骤降？</strong>理论上，金管局仅需要投放少量港币将汇率拉回脱离7.75的强方保证即可，历史经验看也往往如此。如果港币仅是短暂触及强方保证，金管局通常仅小规模投放港币，如2003年9-11月投放110亿港币、2012年底投放750亿港币、2014年中投放753亿港币；如果形势较为严峻，金管局投放港币所引起的总结余变动幅度会比较大，但也更倾向于分批次投放，比如2008年金融危机9月至次年底平均每次投放21亿港币，2015年人民币大幅贬值平均每次投放12亿港币，2020年新冠疫情平均每次投放20亿港币。</p><p><strong>但本轮投放的规模和速度都远超历史正常水平，</strong>金管局5月2日至5月6日短短4天内四次投放港币，累计注资1294亿港币，使总结余从446亿港币骤升至1735亿港币，是正常规模的十倍有余。如此大量的流动性投放，直接导致1月期Hibor迅速下行至0.5%，港币也因此从7.75快速贬值到7.85弱方保证附近，波动之大也实属少见。</p><p>图表：但金管局大量投放流动性，累计注资1294亿港币</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3d80ae352eb19120e81663272a6e4659\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"509\"/></p><p>资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>► 一个可能的解释，是为了对冲5月以来<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03750\">宁德时代</a>等新股上市引起的短期流动性需求。</strong>虽然在联系汇率安排下，金管局的操作受美联储政策的诸多限制，但在一定范围内也有小幅腾挪空间。<strong>换言之，不能决定何时做，但却可以决定如何做。</strong>去年底以来，港股市场IPO和配售持续活跃，流动性需求较大，尤其是5月20日龙头股宁德时代（IPO募资410亿港币，为2021年以来最大的IPO）和5月23日<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">恒瑞医药</a>（IPO募资99亿港币）的上市，或带来短期较大的流动性需求甚至缺口。历史上看，港交所IPO规模较大时，Hibor往往会快速抬升，比如去年9月<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000333\">美的集团</a>在港上市，IPO募资357亿港币，1月期Hibor从9月初的4.0%抬升至9月底的4.3%。因此，一个可能的解释是，金管局本次投放，是为预防港交所新股上市吸引认购资金所引起的流动性需求。</p><p>图表：港股市场IPO和配售持续活跃</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3b951b80f0d4f50187a755afa9a24614\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"519\"/></p><p>注：数据截至2025年6月13日资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p><p>图表：港交所IPO规模较大时通常对应Hibor抬升</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81ddcc44ffbf7cf1c2fc0a4878735a29\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"505\"/></p><p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>Hibor骤降的影响？短期流动性充裕，提振市场和抱团交易，港币也快速贬值至弱方</strong></p><p><strong>Hibor的骤降，叠加这一段时间的弱美元、中美谈判预期，南向资金持续流入等，都使得流动性较为充裕，进而支撑港股整体市场表现，尤其是抱团交易的成长股。一方面，</strong>Hibor降至历史低位，投资者可以用较低的成本融入资金，投入到新股申购等资产配置策略，低成本融资和目标投资潜在回报间的利差较为可观，套利空间的存在会改善投资者的风险偏好。<strong>另一方面，</strong>5月上旬以来美元再度走弱，中美谈判释放温和信号，市场情绪持续修复，南向资金也维持流入，5月初至今南向资金累计流入760亿港币，日均流入27.1亿港币，较4月后半月日均流入12.3亿港币加快。</p><p>图表：南向资金流入加速，支撑港股市场流动性</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9cabd0ad16268bc660ce7cb6c9f561e2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"509\"/></p><p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p><p>图表：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>走弱，中美谈判进展也提供支撑</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/452a89bfb48a0c42337df066175ab121\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"513\"/></p><p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p><p>以上因素共同解释了这段时间港股表现提振的原因，不过，过剩流动性的“资金盛”与有限回报的“资产荒”，也导致投资者“抱团”明显，行情集中度和新消费、创新药等板块的交易拥挤度不断上行，市场呈现结构性特征。</p><p>图表：新消费交易拥挤度达到近一年100%历史分位</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3fb68c5f7f60b721688f8b554bca39af\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"507\"/></p><p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p><p>图表：创新药交易拥挤度达到近一年100%历史分位</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e172123d9a752d0ef07609564d98963\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"508\"/></p><p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>此外，Hibor骤降也使得港币快速贬值至弱方。</strong>5月初金管局投放港币较多，港币贬值过快，当前已走弱至7.85附近，即将触及弱方保证，我们认为或将自动触发金管局的干预机制，迫使其回收流动性。</p><p>图表：香港货币政策机制</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/968e2b2a5c6273eda4901ca4677e0662\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"495\"/></p><p>资料来源：香港金管局，中金公司研究部</p><p>图表：港币汇率当前已极度接近弱方保证7.85</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b8f21504a2572115b3a7e37be7db6c5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"497\"/></p><p>资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>后续可能如何演变？Hibor难以更低，流动性或边际收紧；关注短期波动，尤其是拥挤交易</strong></p><p>港币贬值至弱方，金管局或不会再投放港币，甚至可能需要回收部分流动性以维护弱方保证。同时，Hibor和美国的巨大利差也无法长期持续，当前港美利差处于历史高位，隔夜利率利差达到4.3ppt，1月和3月利率利差分别为3.7ppt和2.6ppt，投资者可以低息借入港币兑换成美元，投资收益率更高的美元资产，以获得稳定的息差收益。然而，借入港币的需求增加会使得Hibor逐步回升，原有的套利空间将被压缩，港美利差或逐步弥合。历史上，Hibor和Libor的利差不会持续走阔，套息交易会使得利差在1至3个月内弥合，<strong>因此Hibor很难更低。不过，金管局同样可以决定以什么样的节奏来收紧流动性，以控制Hibor抬升的速度。</strong></p><p>图表：港币与美元同期限利率利差创历史新高</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/772a2bc31488aeabfc43028e27430dad\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"520\"/></p><p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>因此，港股的流动性边际上难以更松，甚至可能收紧，</strong>原因是：<strong>1）Hibor难以更低，</strong>港美息差收窄和金管局在港币贬值至弱方后回收流动性；<strong>2）南向强劲流入后也可能短期透支。</strong>前期南向资金大规模流入，尤其是涌入分红和新消费和创新药等成长风格，但当前AH溢价已经回落至近5年低点128%（按照分红思路考虑20%分红税的底部为125%），甚至低于3月中水平。对于南向资金，港股长期配置依然存在，但个人与交易型资金主导的特点也使其容易透支，类似3月底；<strong>3）期待长线外资回流依然不现实。</strong>对等关税之后，主动外资甚至降低了配置比例，低配程度也维持在1ppt左右。在关税和增长依然面临不确定性的情况下，期待长线外资回流依然不现实；<strong>4）大量的港股IPO和配售仍将增加供给压力，</strong>今年港股IPO和配售持续活跃，截至目前，6月还有6家公司计划上市，市场预计募资超过200亿港币，后续排队公司还有约140家；<strong>5）美股</strong>大幅反弹与预期改善也吸引了一部分资金关注度。</p><p>图表：AH溢价走低至近5年低点</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d64dde4bcaec2c37b727bbf871bbe10f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"511\"/></p><p>资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部</p><p>图表：海外主动资金持续流出，被动资金转为流入</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f76fa36ad0d47e7ea79299e2da3deb07\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"507\"/></p><p>资料来源：Wind，EPFR，中金公司研究部</p><p>图表：海外主动资金对中资股配置比例关税后再度下滑</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ec3ba39e2ca535e44b53b2e5d1c728ca\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"525\"/></p><p>资料来源：EPFR，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>对市场而言，流动性难以更强甚至可能边际收紧，或影响其上涨斜率，尤其是抱团集中的成长板块，近期回调也表明了这一点。</strong>近期，市场一直处于我们给出的23,000-24,000区间震荡（《港股2025下半年展望：资金盛与资产荒》），对应的加权ERP已经与去年10月初高点相当。同时，新消费和创新药抱团也非常明显，成交占比分别达到4%和12%，为历史最高，并处于近一年接近100%分位水平。<strong>这一背景下，短期流动性的趋紧，关税谈判的变数，数据转弱和政策发力的延后，都有可能造成市场出现波动。</strong>当然，金管局如果仅小幅收紧流动性，又或者上述问题都不出现剧烈变化，那就未必造成巨大动荡，市场有可能窄幅波动，过去一个月和3月底都是如此，只不过这种情形下，市场也难以打开空间。</p><p>图表：恒生指数点位测算</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac4805f42e0d3e59ba8b67622192ec70\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\"/></p><p>资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部</p><p>当前<strong>过剩流动性的“资金盛”与有限回报的“资产荒”的组合，</strong>会导致整体指数难有趋势机会而震荡，但结构性行情大行其道，投资者要么是配置分红类的稳定型回报、要么是涌向互联网、新消费和创新药的成长型回报，抱团明显。应对这种市场环境，一个有效的策略是，<strong>低迷时积极介入（有底部）、亢奋时及时获利（不追高），同时专注结构性方向，</strong>这在过去一年屡试不爽（《港股2025下半年展望：资金盛与资产荒》）。</p><p><strong>因此，我们建议目前投资者可以适度降低仓位，或者切换到分红，又或切换到预期较年初已经明显降温的AI相关互联网标的上，等待后续时机。如果出现较大波动，反而可以更为积极地介入，</strong>以更低的成本买回优质的资产，但前提是要留好“子弹”。</p><p>注：本文摘自中金2025年6月20日已经发布的《Hibor如何影响港股？》，分析师：刘刚S0080512030003 SFC CE Ref：AVH867、王牧遥S0080525050003</p></body></html>","source":"zjdj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中金：Hibor骤降，如何影响港股？</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金：Hibor骤降，如何影响港股？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-06-20 10:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yhkNAYeA8Crf3xv1Js241w><strong>中金点睛</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“对等”关税后，港股一举跌破2018年底上一轮贸易摩擦后的情绪低点，但在触及我们判断的恒指20,500点支撑位后企稳反弹并修复至今（《“对等关税”的冲击会有多大？》），尤其是近期，在新消费和创新药等板块的提振下，加上中美关税谈判一度的乐观预期，共同推动市场近期迎来新一轮上涨，但始终也未能有效突破我们给出的23,000-24,000区间，近期触及上沿后再度连续回撤。此外，与共识印象不同的是，从4月2...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yhkNAYeA8Crf3xv1Js241w\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cf777090175126e4590c3b8afdfe41e","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","YANG":"三倍做空富时中国ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yhkNAYeA8Crf3xv1Js241w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2544979581","content_text":"“对等”关税后，港股一举跌破2018年底上一轮贸易摩擦后的情绪低点，但在触及我们判断的恒指20,500点支撑位后企稳反弹并修复至今（《“对等关税”的冲击会有多大？》），尤其是近期，在新消费和创新药等板块的提振下，加上中美关税谈判一度的乐观预期，共同推动市场近期迎来新一轮上涨，但始终也未能有效突破我们给出的23,000-24,000区间，近期触及上沿后再度连续回撤。此外，与共识印象不同的是，从4月2日对等关税以来，港股实际上跑输全球市场，且集中度和拥挤度不断抬升，新消费、创新药、必需品零售、银行等领先，可选零售、消费者服务、家庭用品、半导体板块跑输。图表：4月2日以来港股实际上跑输全球主要市场资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：新消费、创新药、必需零售、银行等大幅领先注：新消费板块包括泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、周大福、蜜雪集团、古茗、布鲁可、敏实集团、毛戈平、茶百道资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部换一个视角，从流动性角度看，5月初以来恰逢香港银行同业拆息利率Hibor骤降（1月期Hibor从4.1%降至0.6%的历史低位，隔夜Hibor则从4.5%降至0附近，创2000年有数据以来历史新低），这表明港币短期流动性较为充裕，而充裕的流动性即便不是绝对主导，也会对市场走势尤其是新消费与创新药等抱团集中的成长股走势有重要影响。那么，Hibor为何能在美债利率维持高位下脱离联系汇率制度约束如此大幅回落？这一回落又通过什么机制影响港股？后续Hibor可能走势会怎样，又将如何影响市场？图表：港币Hibor利率从5月初以来快速下行资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部Hibor为何骤降？联系汇率下的自动操作，但幅度却大超预期，或是对冲IPO的流动性缺口按常理，受限于港币与美元的联系汇率制度安排（美元兑港币汇率维持在7.75的强方和7.85弱方保证之间），香港政策利率（基准利率 Base rate）严格锚定美联储政策利率（联邦基金利率 Federal Funds Rate），而以基准利率为中枢的市场利率虽会有偏离，但都在一定范围以内，也难以长期背离。然而，港币Hibor隔夜、1月和3月利率从5月初以来快速下行，与美元同期限利率利差创2000年以来新高，港美隔夜利率利差达到4.3ppt，1月和3月利率利差分别为3.7ppt和2.6ppt。为何会出现这种情形？图表：香港政策利率（基准利率 Base rate）严格锚定美联储政策利率（联邦基金利率 Federal Funds Rate）资料来源：香港金管局，中金公司研究部► Hibor回落本身并毫无意外之处，是联系汇率制下自动操作的必然结果，但幅度之大却超出预期。要理解这一问题，就不得不谈到香港金管局在联系汇率制下的操作机制。联系汇率制度属于货币局制度（Currency Board），是一种固定汇率制安排，香港自1983年10月17日实施。在这一安排下，金管局会通过自动利率调节机制及履行兑换保证的坚决承诺来维持港元汇率维持在7.75-7.85区间。例如，当港币触及7.75强方兑换保证时，金管局会投放港币，扩张货币基础，体现为金管局账户总结余的增加，这会导致银行间港币流动性趋向宽松，拉低Hibor利率，也就自然缓解了港币的升值压力；反之，当港币触及7.85弱方保证时，则会反向操作。本轮Hibor的走弱恰是源自5月2日港币触及强方保证后的自然结果，因此金管局的这一操作和由此导致的Hibor走弱本身都没有任何“神秘”之处。图表：本轮Hibor走弱源自5月2日港币触及强方保证后自然且自动的结果资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部► 但意外之处在于为何金管局投放如此多的流动性，进而才导致Hibor骤降？理论上，金管局仅需要投放少量港币将汇率拉回脱离7.75的强方保证即可，历史经验看也往往如此。如果港币仅是短暂触及强方保证，金管局通常仅小规模投放港币，如2003年9-11月投放110亿港币、2012年底投放750亿港币、2014年中投放753亿港币；如果形势较为严峻，金管局投放港币所引起的总结余变动幅度会比较大，但也更倾向于分批次投放，比如2008年金融危机9月至次年底平均每次投放21亿港币，2015年人民币大幅贬值平均每次投放12亿港币，2020年新冠疫情平均每次投放20亿港币。但本轮投放的规模和速度都远超历史正常水平，金管局5月2日至5月6日短短4天内四次投放港币，累计注资1294亿港币，使总结余从446亿港币骤升至1735亿港币，是正常规模的十倍有余。如此大量的流动性投放，直接导致1月期Hibor迅速下行至0.5%，港币也因此从7.75快速贬值到7.85弱方保证附近，波动之大也实属少见。图表：但金管局大量投放流动性，累计注资1294亿港币资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部► 一个可能的解释，是为了对冲5月以来宁德时代等新股上市引起的短期流动性需求。虽然在联系汇率安排下，金管局的操作受美联储政策的诸多限制，但在一定范围内也有小幅腾挪空间。换言之，不能决定何时做，但却可以决定如何做。去年底以来，港股市场IPO和配售持续活跃，流动性需求较大，尤其是5月20日龙头股宁德时代（IPO募资410亿港币，为2021年以来最大的IPO）和5月23日恒瑞医药（IPO募资99亿港币）的上市，或带来短期较大的流动性需求甚至缺口。历史上看，港交所IPO规模较大时，Hibor往往会快速抬升，比如去年9月美的集团在港上市，IPO募资357亿港币，1月期Hibor从9月初的4.0%抬升至9月底的4.3%。因此，一个可能的解释是，金管局本次投放，是为预防港交所新股上市吸引认购资金所引起的流动性需求。图表：港股市场IPO和配售持续活跃注：数据截至2025年6月13日资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部图表：港交所IPO规模较大时通常对应Hibor抬升资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部Hibor骤降的影响？短期流动性充裕，提振市场和抱团交易，港币也快速贬值至弱方Hibor的骤降，叠加这一段时间的弱美元、中美谈判预期，南向资金持续流入等，都使得流动性较为充裕，进而支撑港股整体市场表现，尤其是抱团交易的成长股。一方面，Hibor降至历史低位，投资者可以用较低的成本融入资金，投入到新股申购等资产配置策略，低成本融资和目标投资潜在回报间的利差较为可观，套利空间的存在会改善投资者的风险偏好。另一方面，5月上旬以来美元再度走弱，中美谈判释放温和信号，市场情绪持续修复，南向资金也维持流入，5月初至今南向资金累计流入760亿港币，日均流入27.1亿港币，较4月后半月日均流入12.3亿港币加快。图表：南向资金流入加速，支撑港股市场流动性资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部图表：美元指数走弱，中美谈判进展也提供支撑资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部以上因素共同解释了这段时间港股表现提振的原因，不过，过剩流动性的“资金盛”与有限回报的“资产荒”，也导致投资者“抱团”明显，行情集中度和新消费、创新药等板块的交易拥挤度不断上行，市场呈现结构性特征。图表：新消费交易拥挤度达到近一年100%历史分位资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部图表：创新药交易拥挤度达到近一年100%历史分位资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部此外，Hibor骤降也使得港币快速贬值至弱方。5月初金管局投放港币较多，港币贬值过快，当前已走弱至7.85附近，即将触及弱方保证，我们认为或将自动触发金管局的干预机制，迫使其回收流动性。图表：香港货币政策机制资料来源：香港金管局，中金公司研究部图表：港币汇率当前已极度接近弱方保证7.85资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部后续可能如何演变？Hibor难以更低，流动性或边际收紧；关注短期波动，尤其是拥挤交易港币贬值至弱方，金管局或不会再投放港币，甚至可能需要回收部分流动性以维护弱方保证。同时，Hibor和美国的巨大利差也无法长期持续，当前港美利差处于历史高位，隔夜利率利差达到4.3ppt，1月和3月利率利差分别为3.7ppt和2.6ppt，投资者可以低息借入港币兑换成美元，投资收益率更高的美元资产，以获得稳定的息差收益。然而，借入港币的需求增加会使得Hibor逐步回升，原有的套利空间将被压缩，港美利差或逐步弥合。历史上，Hibor和Libor的利差不会持续走阔，套息交易会使得利差在1至3个月内弥合，因此Hibor很难更低。不过，金管局同样可以决定以什么样的节奏来收紧流动性，以控制Hibor抬升的速度。图表：港币与美元同期限利率利差创历史新高资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部因此，港股的流动性边际上难以更松，甚至可能收紧，原因是：1）Hibor难以更低，港美息差收窄和金管局在港币贬值至弱方后回收流动性；2）南向强劲流入后也可能短期透支。前期南向资金大规模流入，尤其是涌入分红和新消费和创新药等成长风格，但当前AH溢价已经回落至近5年低点128%（按照分红思路考虑20%分红税的底部为125%），甚至低于3月中水平。对于南向资金，港股长期配置依然存在，但个人与交易型资金主导的特点也使其容易透支，类似3月底；3）期待长线外资回流依然不现实。对等关税之后，主动外资甚至降低了配置比例，低配程度也维持在1ppt左右。在关税和增长依然面临不确定性的情况下，期待长线外资回流依然不现实；4）大量的港股IPO和配售仍将增加供给压力，今年港股IPO和配售持续活跃，截至目前，6月还有6家公司计划上市，市场预计募资超过200亿港币，后续排队公司还有约140家；5）美股大幅反弹与预期改善也吸引了一部分资金关注度。图表：AH溢价走低至近5年低点资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：海外主动资金持续流出，被动资金转为流入资料来源：Wind，EPFR，中金公司研究部图表：海外主动资金对中资股配置比例关税后再度下滑资料来源：EPFR，中金公司研究部对市场而言，流动性难以更强甚至可能边际收紧，或影响其上涨斜率，尤其是抱团集中的成长板块，近期回调也表明了这一点。近期，市场一直处于我们给出的23,000-24,000区间震荡（《港股2025下半年展望：资金盛与资产荒》），对应的加权ERP已经与去年10月初高点相当。同时，新消费和创新药抱团也非常明显，成交占比分别达到4%和12%，为历史最高，并处于近一年接近100%分位水平。这一背景下，短期流动性的趋紧，关税谈判的变数，数据转弱和政策发力的延后，都有可能造成市场出现波动。当然，金管局如果仅小幅收紧流动性，又或者上述问题都不出现剧烈变化，那就未必造成巨大动荡，市场有可能窄幅波动，过去一个月和3月底都是如此，只不过这种情形下，市场也难以打开空间。图表：恒生指数点位测算资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部当前过剩流动性的“资金盛”与有限回报的“资产荒”的组合，会导致整体指数难有趋势机会而震荡，但结构性行情大行其道，投资者要么是配置分红类的稳定型回报、要么是涌向互联网、新消费和创新药的成长型回报，抱团明显。应对这种市场环境，一个有效的策略是，低迷时积极介入（有底部）、亢奋时及时获利（不追高），同时专注结构性方向，这在过去一年屡试不爽（《港股2025下半年展望：资金盛与资产荒》）。因此，我们建议目前投资者可以适度降低仓位，或者切换到分红，又或切换到预期较年初已经明显降温的AI相关互联网标的上，等待后续时机。如果出现较大波动，反而可以更为积极地介入，以更低的成本买回优质的资产，但前提是要留好“子弹”。注：本文摘自中金2025年6月20日已经发布的《Hibor如何影响港股？》，分析师：刘刚S0080512030003 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ETF(NVDL)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb4605255f3faa9958c4ddd9d91d49bf","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/420214282088856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":448032028201592,"gmtCreate":1750409529956,"gmtModify":1750410321417,"author":{"id":"4123405616306630","authorId":"4123405616306630","name":"老汉特朗普","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec196b433dc612e52ea1090eb6da3271","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4123405616306630","authorIdStr":"4123405616306630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"艹，艹艹，艹艹艹，艹艹艹艹！","listText":"艹，艹艹，艹艹艹，艹艹艹艹！","text":"艹，艹艹，艹艹艹，艹艹艹艹！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/448032028201592","repostId":"1182013338","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1182013338","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1750328815,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182013338?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-06-19 18:26","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"三花智控：发售价厘定为每股H股22.53港元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182013338","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月19日，$三花智控$公告，于2025年6月19日，发售价已厘定为每股H股22.53港元。本公司预期于2025年6月20日（星期五）公布国际发售的踊跃程度、香港公开发售的申请水平、香港发售股份的分配基准及香港公开发售的分配结果的详情。假设全球发售于2025年6月23日（星期一）上午8时正或之前成为无条件，则预计H股将于2025年6月23日（星期一）上午9时正开始在联交所主板买卖。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>6月19日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02050\">三花智控</a>公告，于2025年6月19日，发售价已厘定为每股H股22.53港元（不包括1.0%经纪佣金、0.0027%证监会交易征费、0.00565%联交所交易费及0.00015%会财局交易征费）。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d1b535b10f3e79147b4435fe9209ff1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"751\"/></p><p>发售量调整权已获悉数行使，据此，本公司将按发售价发行及配发5404.95万股额外发售股份，占全球发售项下初步可供认购发售股份总数约15.0%。</p><p>本公司预期于2025年6月20日（星期五）公布国际发售的踊跃程度、香港公开发售的申请水平、香港发售股份的分配基准及香港公开发售的分配结果的详情。假设全球发售于2025年6月23日（星期一）上午8时正（香港时间）或之前成为无条件，则预计H股将于2025年6月23日（星期一）上午9时正（香港时间）开始在联交所主板买卖。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>三花智控：发售价厘定为每股H股22.53港元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n三花智控：发售价厘定为每股H股22.53港元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-06-19 18:26</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>6月19日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02050\">三花智控</a>公告，于2025年6月19日，发售价已厘定为每股H股22.53港元（不包括1.0%经纪佣金、0.0027%证监会交易征费、0.00565%联交所交易费及0.00015%会财局交易征费）。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d1b535b10f3e79147b4435fe9209ff1\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"849\" tg-height=\"751\"/></p><p>发售量调整权已获悉数行使，据此，本公司将按发售价发行及配发5404.95万股额外发售股份，占全球发售项下初步可供认购发售股份总数约15.0%。</p><p>本公司预期于2025年6月20日（星期五）公布国际发售的踊跃程度、香港公开发售的申请水平、香港发售股份的分配基准及香港公开发售的分配结果的详情。假设全球发售于2025年6月23日（星期一）上午8时正（香港时间）或之前成为无条件，则预计H股将于2025年6月23日（星期一）上午9时正（香港时间）开始在联交所主板买卖。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b69e234a63c2c0a69ccede7b0faaa18","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182013338","content_text":"6月19日，三花智控公告，于2025年6月19日，发售价已厘定为每股H股22.53港元（不包括1.0%经纪佣金、0.0027%证监会交易征费、0.00565%联交所交易费及0.00015%会财局交易征费）。发售量调整权已获悉数行使，据此，本公司将按发售价发行及配发5404.95万股额外发售股份，占全球发售项下初步可供认购发售股份总数约15.0%。本公司预期于2025年6月20日（星期五）公布国际发售的踊跃程度、香港公开发售的申请水平、香港发售股份的分配基准及香港公开发售的分配结果的详情。假设全球发售于2025年6月23日（星期一）上午8时正（香港时间）或之前成为无条件，则预计H股将于2025年6月23日（星期一）上午9时正（香港时间）开始在联交所主板买卖。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"002050":1.1,"02050":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":448033801117808,"gmtCreate":1750406183018,"gmtModify":1750406184051,"author":{"id":"4123405616306630","authorId":"4123405616306630","name":"老汉特朗普","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec196b433dc612e52ea1090eb6da3271","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4123405616306630","authorIdStr":"4123405616306630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"过度发新股，必将走上a股老路","listText":"过度发新股，必将走上a股老路","text":"过度发新股，必将走上a股老路","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/448033801117808","repostId":"2544979581","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2544979581","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1750387245,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2544979581?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-06-20 10:40","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"中金：Hibor骤降，如何影响港股？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2544979581","media":"中金点睛","summary":"金管局不能决定何时做，但却可以决定如何做","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>“对等”关税后，港股一举跌破2018年底上一轮贸易摩擦后的情绪低点，但在触及我们判断的恒指20,500点支撑位后企稳反弹并修复至今（《“对等关税”的冲击会有多大？》），尤其是近期，在新消费和创新药等板块的提振下，加上中美关税谈判一度的乐观预期，共同推动市场近期迎来新一轮上涨，但始终也未能有效突破我们给出的23,000-24,000区间，近期触及上沿后再度连续回撤。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ede1bfc2a61e71e6392ac55a4139aef2\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>此外，与共识印象不同的是，<strong>从4月2日对等关税以来，港股实际上跑输全球市场，且集中度和拥挤度不断抬升，</strong>新消费、创新药、必需品零售、银行等领先，可选零售、消费者服务、家庭用品、半导体板块跑输。</p><p>图表：4月2日以来港股实际上跑输全球主要市场</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ad068a277915147c81dd7f107f1651de\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"802\" tg-height=\"503\"/></p><p>资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部</p><p>图表：新消费、创新药、必需零售、银行等大幅领先</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a18611e6e5b4b00b28da4075b1c8741c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"795\" tg-height=\"515\"/></p><p>注：新消费板块包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06181\">老铺黄金</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01929\">周大福</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02097\">蜜雪集团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01364\">古茗</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00325\">布鲁可</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00425\">敏实集团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01318\">毛戈平</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02555\">茶百道</a>资料来源：FactSet，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03908\">中金公司</a>研究部</p><p><strong>换一个视角，从流动性角度看，</strong>5月初以来恰逢香港银行同业拆息利率Hibor骤降（1月期Hibor从4.1%降至0.6%的历史低位，隔夜Hibor则从4.5%降至0附近，创2000年有数据以来历史新低），<strong>这表明港币短期流动性较为充裕，</strong>而充裕的流动性即便不是绝对主导，也会对市场走势尤其是新消费与创新药等抱团集中的成长股走势有重要影响。</p><p>那么，<strong>Hibor为何能在美债利率维持高位下脱离联系汇率制度约束如此大幅回落？这一回落又通过什么机制影响港股？后续Hibor可能走势会怎样，又将如何影响市场？</strong></p><p>图表：港币Hibor利率从5月初以来快速下行</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/523361987604d0ea9c9b3696c49f9bcb\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"506\"/></p><p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>Hibor为何骤降？联系汇率下的自动操作，但幅度却大超预期，或是对冲IPO的流动性缺口</strong></p><p>按常理，受限于港币与美元的联系汇率制度安排（美元兑港币汇率维持在7.75的强方和7.85弱方保证之间），香港政策利率（基准利率 Base rate）严格锚定美联储政策利率（联邦基金利率 Federal Funds Rate），而以基准利率为中枢的市场利率虽会有偏离，但都在一定范围以内，也难以长期背离。然而，港币Hibor隔夜、1月和3月利率从5月初以来快速下行，与美元同期限利率利差创2000年以来新高，港美隔夜利率利差达到4.3ppt，1月和3月利率利差分别为3.7ppt和2.6ppt。<strong>为何会出现这种情形？</strong></p><p>图表：香港政策利率（基准利率 Base rate）严格锚定美联储政策利率（联邦基金利率 Federal Funds Rate）</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fa7ac47ca0149a644b3b001753d5467c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"368\"/></p><p>资料来源：香港金管局，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>► Hibor回落本身并毫无意外之处，是联系汇率制下自动操作的必然结果，但幅度之大却超出预期。</strong>要理解这一问题，就不得不谈到香港金管局在联系汇率制下的操作机制。联系汇率制度属于货币局制度（Currency Board），是一种固定汇率制安排，香港自1983年10月17日实施。在这一安排下，金管局会通过自动利率调节机制及履行兑换保证的坚决承诺来维持港元汇率维持在7.75-7.85区间。例如，当港币触及7.75强方兑换保证时，金管局会投放港币，扩张货币基础，体现为金管局账户总结余的增加，这会导致银行间港币流动性趋向宽松，拉低Hibor利率，也就自然缓解了港币的升值压力；反之，当港币触及7.85弱方保证时，则会反向操作。<strong>本轮Hibor的走弱恰是源自5月2日港币触及强方保证后的自然结果，因此金管局的这一操作和由此导致的Hibor走弱本身都没有任何“神秘”之处。</strong></p><p>图表：本轮Hibor走弱源自5月2日港币触及强方保证后自然且自动的结果</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c47d95c7e5cae987bd3923c8820b472c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"825\" tg-height=\"512\"/></p><p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>► 但意外之处在于为何金管局投放如此多的流动性，进而才导致Hibor骤降？</strong>理论上，金管局仅需要投放少量港币将汇率拉回脱离7.75的强方保证即可，历史经验看也往往如此。如果港币仅是短暂触及强方保证，金管局通常仅小规模投放港币，如2003年9-11月投放110亿港币、2012年底投放750亿港币、2014年中投放753亿港币；如果形势较为严峻，金管局投放港币所引起的总结余变动幅度会比较大，但也更倾向于分批次投放，比如2008年金融危机9月至次年底平均每次投放21亿港币，2015年人民币大幅贬值平均每次投放12亿港币，2020年新冠疫情平均每次投放20亿港币。</p><p><strong>但本轮投放的规模和速度都远超历史正常水平，</strong>金管局5月2日至5月6日短短4天内四次投放港币，累计注资1294亿港币，使总结余从446亿港币骤升至1735亿港币，是正常规模的十倍有余。如此大量的流动性投放，直接导致1月期Hibor迅速下行至0.5%，港币也因此从7.75快速贬值到7.85弱方保证附近，波动之大也实属少见。</p><p>图表：但金管局大量投放流动性，累计注资1294亿港币</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3d80ae352eb19120e81663272a6e4659\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"509\"/></p><p>资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>► 一个可能的解释，是为了对冲5月以来<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03750\">宁德时代</a>等新股上市引起的短期流动性需求。</strong>虽然在联系汇率安排下，金管局的操作受美联储政策的诸多限制，但在一定范围内也有小幅腾挪空间。<strong>换言之，不能决定何时做，但却可以决定如何做。</strong>去年底以来，港股市场IPO和配售持续活跃，流动性需求较大，尤其是5月20日龙头股宁德时代（IPO募资410亿港币，为2021年以来最大的IPO）和5月23日<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">恒瑞医药</a>（IPO募资99亿港币）的上市，或带来短期较大的流动性需求甚至缺口。历史上看，港交所IPO规模较大时，Hibor往往会快速抬升，比如去年9月<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000333\">美的集团</a>在港上市，IPO募资357亿港币，1月期Hibor从9月初的4.0%抬升至9月底的4.3%。因此，一个可能的解释是，金管局本次投放，是为预防港交所新股上市吸引认购资金所引起的流动性需求。</p><p>图表：港股市场IPO和配售持续活跃</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3b951b80f0d4f50187a755afa9a24614\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"822\" tg-height=\"519\"/></p><p>注：数据截至2025年6月13日资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p><p>图表：港交所IPO规模较大时通常对应Hibor抬升</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/81ddcc44ffbf7cf1c2fc0a4878735a29\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"841\" tg-height=\"505\"/></p><p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>Hibor骤降的影响？短期流动性充裕，提振市场和抱团交易，港币也快速贬值至弱方</strong></p><p><strong>Hibor的骤降，叠加这一段时间的弱美元、中美谈判预期，南向资金持续流入等，都使得流动性较为充裕，进而支撑港股整体市场表现，尤其是抱团交易的成长股。一方面，</strong>Hibor降至历史低位，投资者可以用较低的成本融入资金，投入到新股申购等资产配置策略，低成本融资和目标投资潜在回报间的利差较为可观，套利空间的存在会改善投资者的风险偏好。<strong>另一方面，</strong>5月上旬以来美元再度走弱，中美谈判释放温和信号，市场情绪持续修复，南向资金也维持流入，5月初至今南向资金累计流入760亿港币，日均流入27.1亿港币，较4月后半月日均流入12.3亿港币加快。</p><p>图表：南向资金流入加速，支撑港股市场流动性</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/9cabd0ad16268bc660ce7cb6c9f561e2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"832\" tg-height=\"509\"/></p><p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p><p>图表：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDindex.FOREX\">美元指数</a>走弱，中美谈判进展也提供支撑</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/452a89bfb48a0c42337df066175ab121\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"824\" tg-height=\"513\"/></p><p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p><p>以上因素共同解释了这段时间港股表现提振的原因，不过，过剩流动性的“资金盛”与有限回报的“资产荒”，也导致投资者“抱团”明显，行情集中度和新消费、创新药等板块的交易拥挤度不断上行，市场呈现结构性特征。</p><p>图表：新消费交易拥挤度达到近一年100%历史分位</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3fb68c5f7f60b721688f8b554bca39af\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"831\" tg-height=\"507\"/></p><p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p><p>图表：创新药交易拥挤度达到近一年100%历史分位</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e172123d9a752d0ef07609564d98963\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"508\"/></p><p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>此外，Hibor骤降也使得港币快速贬值至弱方。</strong>5月初金管局投放港币较多，港币贬值过快，当前已走弱至7.85附近，即将触及弱方保证，我们认为或将自动触发金管局的干预机制，迫使其回收流动性。</p><p>图表：香港货币政策机制</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/968e2b2a5c6273eda4901ca4677e0662\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"826\" tg-height=\"495\"/></p><p>资料来源：香港金管局，中金公司研究部</p><p>图表：港币汇率当前已极度接近弱方保证7.85</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/7b8f21504a2572115b3a7e37be7db6c5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"818\" tg-height=\"497\"/></p><p>资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>后续可能如何演变？Hibor难以更低，流动性或边际收紧；关注短期波动，尤其是拥挤交易</strong></p><p>港币贬值至弱方，金管局或不会再投放港币，甚至可能需要回收部分流动性以维护弱方保证。同时，Hibor和美国的巨大利差也无法长期持续，当前港美利差处于历史高位，隔夜利率利差达到4.3ppt，1月和3月利率利差分别为3.7ppt和2.6ppt，投资者可以低息借入港币兑换成美元，投资收益率更高的美元资产，以获得稳定的息差收益。然而，借入港币的需求增加会使得Hibor逐步回升，原有的套利空间将被压缩，港美利差或逐步弥合。历史上，Hibor和Libor的利差不会持续走阔，套息交易会使得利差在1至3个月内弥合，<strong>因此Hibor很难更低。不过，金管局同样可以决定以什么样的节奏来收紧流动性，以控制Hibor抬升的速度。</strong></p><p>图表：港币与美元同期限利率利差创历史新高</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/772a2bc31488aeabfc43028e27430dad\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"834\" tg-height=\"520\"/></p><p>资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>因此，港股的流动性边际上难以更松，甚至可能收紧，</strong>原因是：<strong>1）Hibor难以更低，</strong>港美息差收窄和金管局在港币贬值至弱方后回收流动性；<strong>2）南向强劲流入后也可能短期透支。</strong>前期南向资金大规模流入，尤其是涌入分红和新消费和创新药等成长风格，但当前AH溢价已经回落至近5年低点128%（按照分红思路考虑20%分红税的底部为125%），甚至低于3月中水平。对于南向资金，港股长期配置依然存在，但个人与交易型资金主导的特点也使其容易透支，类似3月底；<strong>3）期待长线外资回流依然不现实。</strong>对等关税之后，主动外资甚至降低了配置比例，低配程度也维持在1ppt左右。在关税和增长依然面临不确定性的情况下，期待长线外资回流依然不现实；<strong>4）大量的港股IPO和配售仍将增加供给压力，</strong>今年港股IPO和配售持续活跃，截至目前，6月还有6家公司计划上市，市场预计募资超过200亿港币，后续排队公司还有约140家；<strong>5）美股</strong>大幅反弹与预期改善也吸引了一部分资金关注度。</p><p>图表：AH溢价走低至近5年低点</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/d64dde4bcaec2c37b727bbf871bbe10f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"828\" tg-height=\"511\"/></p><p>资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部</p><p>图表：海外主动资金持续流出，被动资金转为流入</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f76fa36ad0d47e7ea79299e2da3deb07\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"842\" tg-height=\"507\"/></p><p>资料来源：Wind，EPFR，中金公司研究部</p><p>图表：海外主动资金对中资股配置比例关税后再度下滑</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ec3ba39e2ca535e44b53b2e5d1c728ca\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"843\" tg-height=\"525\"/></p><p>资料来源：EPFR，中金公司研究部</p><p><strong>对市场而言，流动性难以更强甚至可能边际收紧，或影响其上涨斜率，尤其是抱团集中的成长板块，近期回调也表明了这一点。</strong>近期，市场一直处于我们给出的23,000-24,000区间震荡（《港股2025下半年展望：资金盛与资产荒》），对应的加权ERP已经与去年10月初高点相当。同时，新消费和创新药抱团也非常明显，成交占比分别达到4%和12%，为历史最高，并处于近一年接近100%分位水平。<strong>这一背景下，短期流动性的趋紧，关税谈判的变数，数据转弱和政策发力的延后，都有可能造成市场出现波动。</strong>当然，金管局如果仅小幅收紧流动性，又或者上述问题都不出现剧烈变化，那就未必造成巨大动荡，市场有可能窄幅波动，过去一个月和3月底都是如此，只不过这种情形下，市场也难以打开空间。</p><p>图表：恒生指数点位测算</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac4805f42e0d3e59ba8b67622192ec70\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"651\"/></p><p>资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部</p><p>当前<strong>过剩流动性的“资金盛”与有限回报的“资产荒”的组合，</strong>会导致整体指数难有趋势机会而震荡，但结构性行情大行其道，投资者要么是配置分红类的稳定型回报、要么是涌向互联网、新消费和创新药的成长型回报，抱团明显。应对这种市场环境，一个有效的策略是，<strong>低迷时积极介入（有底部）、亢奋时及时获利（不追高），同时专注结构性方向，</strong>这在过去一年屡试不爽（《港股2025下半年展望：资金盛与资产荒》）。</p><p><strong>因此，我们建议目前投资者可以适度降低仓位，或者切换到分红，又或切换到预期较年初已经明显降温的AI相关互联网标的上，等待后续时机。如果出现较大波动，反而可以更为积极地介入，</strong>以更低的成本买回优质的资产，但前提是要留好“子弹”。</p><p>注：本文摘自中金2025年6月20日已经发布的《Hibor如何影响港股？》，分析师：刘刚S0080512030003 SFC CE Ref：AVH867、王牧遥S0080525050003</p></body></html>","source":"zjdj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中金：Hibor骤降，如何影响港股？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金：Hibor骤降，如何影响港股？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-06-20 10:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yhkNAYeA8Crf3xv1Js241w><strong>中金点睛</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“对等”关税后，港股一举跌破2018年底上一轮贸易摩擦后的情绪低点，但在触及我们判断的恒指20,500点支撑位后企稳反弹并修复至今（《“对等关税”的冲击会有多大？》），尤其是近期，在新消费和创新药等板块的提振下，加上中美关税谈判一度的乐观预期，共同推动市场近期迎来新一轮上涨，但始终也未能有效突破我们给出的23,000-24,000区间，近期触及上沿后再度连续回撤。此外，与共识印象不同的是，从4月2...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yhkNAYeA8Crf3xv1Js241w\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cf777090175126e4590c3b8afdfe41e","relate_stocks":{"HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","YANG":"三倍做空富时中国ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/yhkNAYeA8Crf3xv1Js241w","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2544979581","content_text":"“对等”关税后，港股一举跌破2018年底上一轮贸易摩擦后的情绪低点，但在触及我们判断的恒指20,500点支撑位后企稳反弹并修复至今（《“对等关税”的冲击会有多大？》），尤其是近期，在新消费和创新药等板块的提振下，加上中美关税谈判一度的乐观预期，共同推动市场近期迎来新一轮上涨，但始终也未能有效突破我们给出的23,000-24,000区间，近期触及上沿后再度连续回撤。此外，与共识印象不同的是，从4月2日对等关税以来，港股实际上跑输全球市场，且集中度和拥挤度不断抬升，新消费、创新药、必需品零售、银行等领先，可选零售、消费者服务、家庭用品、半导体板块跑输。图表：4月2日以来港股实际上跑输全球主要市场资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部图表：新消费、创新药、必需零售、银行等大幅领先注：新消费板块包括泡泡玛特、老铺黄金、周大福、蜜雪集团、古茗、布鲁可、敏实集团、毛戈平、茶百道资料来源：FactSet，中金公司研究部换一个视角，从流动性角度看，5月初以来恰逢香港银行同业拆息利率Hibor骤降（1月期Hibor从4.1%降至0.6%的历史低位，隔夜Hibor则从4.5%降至0附近，创2000年有数据以来历史新低），这表明港币短期流动性较为充裕，而充裕的流动性即便不是绝对主导，也会对市场走势尤其是新消费与创新药等抱团集中的成长股走势有重要影响。那么，Hibor为何能在美债利率维持高位下脱离联系汇率制度约束如此大幅回落？这一回落又通过什么机制影响港股？后续Hibor可能走势会怎样，又将如何影响市场？图表：港币Hibor利率从5月初以来快速下行资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部Hibor为何骤降？联系汇率下的自动操作，但幅度却大超预期，或是对冲IPO的流动性缺口按常理，受限于港币与美元的联系汇率制度安排（美元兑港币汇率维持在7.75的强方和7.85弱方保证之间），香港政策利率（基准利率 Base rate）严格锚定美联储政策利率（联邦基金利率 Federal Funds Rate），而以基准利率为中枢的市场利率虽会有偏离，但都在一定范围以内，也难以长期背离。然而，港币Hibor隔夜、1月和3月利率从5月初以来快速下行，与美元同期限利率利差创2000年以来新高，港美隔夜利率利差达到4.3ppt，1月和3月利率利差分别为3.7ppt和2.6ppt。为何会出现这种情形？图表：香港政策利率（基准利率 Base rate）严格锚定美联储政策利率（联邦基金利率 Federal Funds Rate）资料来源：香港金管局，中金公司研究部► Hibor回落本身并毫无意外之处，是联系汇率制下自动操作的必然结果，但幅度之大却超出预期。要理解这一问题，就不得不谈到香港金管局在联系汇率制下的操作机制。联系汇率制度属于货币局制度（Currency Board），是一种固定汇率制安排，香港自1983年10月17日实施。在这一安排下，金管局会通过自动利率调节机制及履行兑换保证的坚决承诺来维持港元汇率维持在7.75-7.85区间。例如，当港币触及7.75强方兑换保证时，金管局会投放港币，扩张货币基础，体现为金管局账户总结余的增加，这会导致银行间港币流动性趋向宽松，拉低Hibor利率，也就自然缓解了港币的升值压力；反之，当港币触及7.85弱方保证时，则会反向操作。本轮Hibor的走弱恰是源自5月2日港币触及强方保证后的自然结果，因此金管局的这一操作和由此导致的Hibor走弱本身都没有任何“神秘”之处。图表：本轮Hibor走弱源自5月2日港币触及强方保证后自然且自动的结果资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部► 但意外之处在于为何金管局投放如此多的流动性，进而才导致Hibor骤降？理论上，金管局仅需要投放少量港币将汇率拉回脱离7.75的强方保证即可，历史经验看也往往如此。如果港币仅是短暂触及强方保证，金管局通常仅小规模投放港币，如2003年9-11月投放110亿港币、2012年底投放750亿港币、2014年中投放753亿港币；如果形势较为严峻，金管局投放港币所引起的总结余变动幅度会比较大，但也更倾向于分批次投放，比如2008年金融危机9月至次年底平均每次投放21亿港币，2015年人民币大幅贬值平均每次投放12亿港币，2020年新冠疫情平均每次投放20亿港币。但本轮投放的规模和速度都远超历史正常水平，金管局5月2日至5月6日短短4天内四次投放港币，累计注资1294亿港币，使总结余从446亿港币骤升至1735亿港币，是正常规模的十倍有余。如此大量的流动性投放，直接导致1月期Hibor迅速下行至0.5%，港币也因此从7.75快速贬值到7.85弱方保证附近，波动之大也实属少见。图表：但金管局大量投放流动性，累计注资1294亿港币资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部► 一个可能的解释，是为了对冲5月以来宁德时代等新股上市引起的短期流动性需求。虽然在联系汇率安排下，金管局的操作受美联储政策的诸多限制，但在一定范围内也有小幅腾挪空间。换言之，不能决定何时做，但却可以决定如何做。去年底以来，港股市场IPO和配售持续活跃，流动性需求较大，尤其是5月20日龙头股宁德时代（IPO募资410亿港币，为2021年以来最大的IPO）和5月23日恒瑞医药（IPO募资99亿港币）的上市，或带来短期较大的流动性需求甚至缺口。历史上看，港交所IPO规模较大时，Hibor往往会快速抬升，比如去年9月美的集团在港上市，IPO募资357亿港币，1月期Hibor从9月初的4.0%抬升至9月底的4.3%。因此，一个可能的解释是，金管局本次投放，是为预防港交所新股上市吸引认购资金所引起的流动性需求。图表：港股市场IPO和配售持续活跃注：数据截至2025年6月13日资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部图表：港交所IPO规模较大时通常对应Hibor抬升资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部Hibor骤降的影响？短期流动性充裕，提振市场和抱团交易，港币也快速贬值至弱方Hibor的骤降，叠加这一段时间的弱美元、中美谈判预期，南向资金持续流入等，都使得流动性较为充裕，进而支撑港股整体市场表现，尤其是抱团交易的成长股。一方面，Hibor降至历史低位，投资者可以用较低的成本融入资金，投入到新股申购等资产配置策略，低成本融资和目标投资潜在回报间的利差较为可观，套利空间的存在会改善投资者的风险偏好。另一方面，5月上旬以来美元再度走弱，中美谈判释放温和信号，市场情绪持续修复，南向资金也维持流入，5月初至今南向资金累计流入760亿港币，日均流入27.1亿港币，较4月后半月日均流入12.3亿港币加快。图表：南向资金流入加速，支撑港股市场流动性资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部图表：美元指数走弱，中美谈判进展也提供支撑资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部以上因素共同解释了这段时间港股表现提振的原因，不过，过剩流动性的“资金盛”与有限回报的“资产荒”，也导致投资者“抱团”明显，行情集中度和新消费、创新药等板块的交易拥挤度不断上行，市场呈现结构性特征。图表：新消费交易拥挤度达到近一年100%历史分位资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部图表：创新药交易拥挤度达到近一年100%历史分位资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部此外，Hibor骤降也使得港币快速贬值至弱方。5月初金管局投放港币较多，港币贬值过快，当前已走弱至7.85附近，即将触及弱方保证，我们认为或将自动触发金管局的干预机制，迫使其回收流动性。图表：香港货币政策机制资料来源：香港金管局，中金公司研究部图表：港币汇率当前已极度接近弱方保证7.85资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部后续可能如何演变？Hibor难以更低，流动性或边际收紧；关注短期波动，尤其是拥挤交易港币贬值至弱方，金管局或不会再投放港币，甚至可能需要回收部分流动性以维护弱方保证。同时，Hibor和美国的巨大利差也无法长期持续，当前港美利差处于历史高位，隔夜利率利差达到4.3ppt，1月和3月利率利差分别为3.7ppt和2.6ppt，投资者可以低息借入港币兑换成美元，投资收益率更高的美元资产，以获得稳定的息差收益。然而，借入港币的需求增加会使得Hibor逐步回升，原有的套利空间将被压缩，港美利差或逐步弥合。历史上，Hibor和Libor的利差不会持续走阔，套息交易会使得利差在1至3个月内弥合，因此Hibor很难更低。不过，金管局同样可以决定以什么样的节奏来收紧流动性，以控制Hibor抬升的速度。图表：港币与美元同期限利率利差创历史新高资料来源：Wind，中金公司研究部因此，港股的流动性边际上难以更松，甚至可能收紧，原因是：1）Hibor难以更低，港美息差收窄和金管局在港币贬值至弱方后回收流动性；2）南向强劲流入后也可能短期透支。前期南向资金大规模流入，尤其是涌入分红和新消费和创新药等成长风格，但当前AH溢价已经回落至近5年低点128%（按照分红思路考虑20%分红税的底部为125%），甚至低于3月中水平。对于南向资金，港股长期配置依然存在，但个人与交易型资金主导的特点也使其容易透支，类似3月底；3）期待长线外资回流依然不现实。对等关税之后，主动外资甚至降低了配置比例，低配程度也维持在1ppt左右。在关税和增长依然面临不确定性的情况下，期待长线外资回流依然不现实；4）大量的港股IPO和配售仍将增加供给压力，今年港股IPO和配售持续活跃，截至目前，6月还有6家公司计划上市，市场预计募资超过200亿港币，后续排队公司还有约140家；5）美股大幅反弹与预期改善也吸引了一部分资金关注度。图表：AH溢价走低至近5年低点资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部图表：海外主动资金持续流出，被动资金转为流入资料来源：Wind，EPFR，中金公司研究部图表：海外主动资金对中资股配置比例关税后再度下滑资料来源：EPFR，中金公司研究部对市场而言，流动性难以更强甚至可能边际收紧，或影响其上涨斜率，尤其是抱团集中的成长板块，近期回调也表明了这一点。近期，市场一直处于我们给出的23,000-24,000区间震荡（《港股2025下半年展望：资金盛与资产荒》），对应的加权ERP已经与去年10月初高点相当。同时，新消费和创新药抱团也非常明显，成交占比分别达到4%和12%，为历史最高，并处于近一年接近100%分位水平。这一背景下，短期流动性的趋紧，关税谈判的变数，数据转弱和政策发力的延后，都有可能造成市场出现波动。当然，金管局如果仅小幅收紧流动性，又或者上述问题都不出现剧烈变化，那就未必造成巨大动荡，市场有可能窄幅波动，过去一个月和3月底都是如此，只不过这种情形下，市场也难以打开空间。图表：恒生指数点位测算资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部当前过剩流动性的“资金盛”与有限回报的“资产荒”的组合，会导致整体指数难有趋势机会而震荡，但结构性行情大行其道，投资者要么是配置分红类的稳定型回报、要么是涌向互联网、新消费和创新药的成长型回报，抱团明显。应对这种市场环境，一个有效的策略是，低迷时积极介入（有底部）、亢奋时及时获利（不追高），同时专注结构性方向，这在过去一年屡试不爽（《港股2025下半年展望：资金盛与资产荒》）。因此，我们建议目前投资者可以适度降低仓位，或者切换到分红，又或切换到预期较年初已经明显降温的AI相关互联网标的上，等待后续时机。如果出现较大波动，反而可以更为积极地介入，以更低的成本买回优质的资产，但前提是要留好“子弹”。注：本文摘自中金2025年6月20日已经发布的《Hibor如何影响港股？》，分析师：刘刚S0080512030003 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今天跌了好多啊，啥情况？？？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7a08aca18a2ace8f5771cef6832a4868","width":"882","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/432140603027464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3561762927638597","authorId":"3561762927638597","name":"一把锁","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3561762927638597","authorIdStr":"3561762927638597"},"content":"你都开通港股了还买这玩意儿啊，不割你割谁","text":"你都开通港股了还买这玩意儿啊，不割你割谁","html":"你都开通港股了还买这玩意儿啊，不割你割谁"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":405141347840304,"gmtCreate":1739935463023,"gmtModify":1739935464431,"author":{"id":"4123405616306630","authorId":"4123405616306630","name":"老汉特朗普","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec196b433dc612e52ea1090eb6da3271","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4123405616306630","authorIdStr":"4123405616306630"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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21:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>6月5日周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>概念股走势分化，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NBIS\">NEBIUS</a>涨超16%，ARM涨近2%，CoreWeave跌超8%，RXRX跌超4%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a41e33bd82127da84488c4fc25229fa5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/720e235096bda02063b992bc6bad73ae","relate_stocks":{"BK4529":"IDC概念","NVDA":"英伟达","HK0000320264.USD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034235295.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","IE0004445239.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON US FORTY \"A2\" (USD) ACC","IE00BN29S564.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A3\" (USD) INC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) 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22:56","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达涨超3%，杰富瑞预测英伟达今年利润率可能高达80%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184041036","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"英伟达已转型为全面AI基础设施供应商。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美东时间周二早盘，英伟达股价震荡拉升，截至发稿涨超3%。此前券商杰富瑞将该芯片制造商列为首选股，并预测其今年利润率可能高达80%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50a0ff5b06ef2dc72470769ea22aa2b0\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>杰富瑞分析师布雷恩-柯蒂斯（Blayne Curtis）将英伟达纳入该投行“最高确信度”股票名单，指出新一代Blackwell芯片的产能爬坡是关键驱动因素。他认为Blackwell芯片激增的需求将显著推动利润率扩张。目前英伟达毛利率约为61%，但杰富瑞预测随着Blackwell芯片量产加速，该数字可能跃升至80%。如此高的利润率在硬件领域实属罕见，凸显了英伟达强大的定价能力与市场地位。</p><p>该机构指出，英伟达已超越单纯芯片销售，转型为全面AI基础设施供应商。从超大规模数据中心到对冲基金，客户正争相采购其集硬件、软件和系统于一体的解决方案。随着AI工作负载激增，持续的软件授权和大规模部署有望进一步提升盈利能力。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达涨超3%，杰富瑞预测英伟达今年利润率可能高达80%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-06-03 22:56</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美东时间周二早盘，英伟达股价震荡拉升，截至发稿涨超3%。此前券商杰富瑞将该芯片制造商列为首选股，并预测其今年利润率可能高达80%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50a0ff5b06ef2dc72470769ea22aa2b0\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>杰富瑞分析师布雷恩-柯蒂斯（Blayne Curtis）将英伟达纳入该投行“最高确信度”股票名单，指出新一代Blackwell芯片的产能爬坡是关键驱动因素。他认为Blackwell芯片激增的需求将显著推动利润率扩张。目前英伟达毛利率约为61%，但杰富瑞预测随着Blackwell芯片量产加速，该数字可能跃升至80%。如此高的利润率在硬件领域实属罕见，凸显了英伟达强大的定价能力与市场地位。</p><p>该机构指出，英伟达已超越单纯芯片销售，转型为全面AI基础设施供应商。从超大规模数据中心到对冲基金，客户正争相采购其集硬件、软件和系统于一体的解决方案。随着AI工作负载激增，持续的软件授权和大规模部署有望进一步提升盈利能力。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3286a58dbaeafcabd8dd40fef996d961","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184041036","content_text":"美东时间周二早盘，英伟达股价震荡拉升，截至发稿涨超3%。此前券商杰富瑞将该芯片制造商列为首选股，并预测其今年利润率可能高达80%。杰富瑞分析师布雷恩-柯蒂斯（Blayne Curtis）将英伟达纳入该投行“最高确信度”股票名单，指出新一代Blackwell芯片的产能爬坡是关键驱动因素。他认为Blackwell芯片激增的需求将显著推动利润率扩张。目前英伟达毛利率约为61%，但杰富瑞预测随着Blackwell芯片量产加速，该数字可能跃升至80%。如此高的利润率在硬件领域实属罕见，凸显了英伟达强大的定价能力与市场地位。该机构指出，英伟达已超越单纯芯片销售，转型为全面AI基础设施供应商。从超大规模数据中心到对冲基金，客户正争相采购其集硬件、软件和系统于一体的解决方案。随着AI工作负载激增，持续的软件授权和大规模部署有望进一步提升盈利能力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":230,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}