虎骨高的个人主页 - 老虎社区

虎骨高

虎骨高

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IP属地：北京

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0主题

0勋章

12-01

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 继续回购啊雷总[笑哭]

11-28

$腾讯控股(00700)$ 破股天天跌

11-24

$腾讯控股(00700)$ 空空空

11-21

$禾赛(HSAI)$ 凉凉啦

11-18

$禾赛-W(02525)$ 这货完了完了完了

11-12

$禾赛(HSAI)$ 涨的全都跌回来了

11-10

$腾讯控股(00700)$ 涨

11-06

$禾赛-W(02525)$ 几乎就没有成交量，这是啥破股

11-06

$小米集团-W(01810)$

11-05

$禾赛(HSAI)$ 雷达应用的越来越多啦

11-04

$小米集团-W(01810)$

11-04

$小米集团-W(01810)$

11-04

Replying to @葛蓝碧高:快拉倒吧你，马斯克是创新，他是抄袭[喷血]//@葛蓝碧高:雷总跟马斯克差不多，都是很牛逼的人。

11-04

$小米集团-W(01810)$

10-28

$小米集团-W(01810)$

10-28

$小米集团-W(01810)$

10-27

绝不买粗粮[真香]

小米越过山丘还是悬崖，雷军不能这样下去了

10-13

高盛说谁涨，谁就跌，看看这几天的行情吧，他是给自己出货的机会呢

高盛：腾讯估值不算苛刻，仍是中国最具确定性的AI应用受益股

09-30

还吹呢，全是话术，骗子🤥

从追赶到定义：小米17系列的“改变”背后

09-30

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 不老实不诚实，欺骗消费者，视生命如儿戏，玩文字游戏，这样的企业不该存在

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/498627388805952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":497243614585728,"gmtCreate":1762420501933,"gmtModify":1762420503642,"author":{"id":"4133398059071332","authorId":"4133398059071332","name":"虎骨高","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36ec2c2d2405aed43a19933c5c6010ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4133398059071332","idStr":"4133398059071332"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02525\">$禾赛-W(02525)$</a> 几乎就没有成交量，这是啥破股","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02525\">$禾赛-W(02525)$</a> 几乎就没有成交量，这是啥破股","text":"$禾赛-W(02525)$ 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16:53","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小米越过山丘还是悬崖，雷军不能这样下去了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2578164316","media":"深水财经社","summary":"10月13日凌晨，一辆小米SU7在成都街头失控撞击后迅速起火，由于车门无法从外部打开，施救的路人只能看着汽车燃爆。事件一出，瞬间点燃了公众对小米汽车安全性的疑虑，小米的股价应声下跌，跌幅一度达8.74％、蒸发市值近千亿。如果小米不能正视研发制造的短板，不能修复受损的品牌信任，那么越过一座山丘后，等待小米的可能是更高的悬崖。雷军和小米，真的不能再这样下去了。","content":"<html><body><article><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251027170604081v201ibfkcvlaq99\"/><p>对于押上“全部声誉”造车的雷军而言，品牌形象的崩塌比业绩下滑更为致命。</p><p><strong>作者 | 深水财经社</strong><strong>纳兰</strong></p><p>10月27日的港股早盘，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">小米集团-W</a>（01810.HK）的股价的一波大跳水惊出投资者一身冷汗，<strong>一度跌超4%至43.88港元，创下今年4月以来的最低纪</strong>录，直到下午又缓慢回升，跌幅收窄至1%以内。</p><p>这波大跌的诱因是花旗集团在最新研报中发布的业绩预警，预计11月18日公布的2025年第三季度业绩将略低于预期，该报告预测智能手机毛利率下滑与IoT业务收入不及预期，而曾被寄予厚望的“人车家全生态”战略，正遭遇消费者和投资者的双重质疑。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251027170606636v201ro6v1lj7mqr\"/><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251027170614767v201tvrqeo6af75\"/><p><strong>机构预测分歧加剧</strong></p><p>机出货量预测下调200万台，并调低毛利率假设。</p><p>不过，花旗维持对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>的“买入”资本市场对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/81810\">小米</a>的态度正呈现明显分化。</p><p>花旗在10月下旬发布的研报中明确指出，小米集团2025年第三季度小米集团调整后<span>净利润</span>达102亿元人民币（按年增长64%，按季度减5%），受智能手机毛利率因地区组合不利及内存产品价格上涨而拖累，以及物联网收入因中国补贴效应减弱所影响。</p><p><strong>花旗将其2025至2027年智能手评级，目标价从66港元微降至65港元，因长期增长主题不变。</strong></p><p>与之形成对比的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">华泰证券</a>的乐观预判，该行预计小米Q3汽车业务<span>出货</span>约10.9万台，实现收入286亿元，毛利率维持在26%以上的较高水平，因此维持“买入”评级。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>10月27日发布研报称，预计三季度经调整净利润同比增长68.88%，主要受益于手机高端化进展及汽车业务首次盈利。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251027170615550v201c21sigwjiip\"/><p>尽管存储成本上涨带来压力，但整体盈利能力改善趋势明确，汽车产能释放与新车型推出将驱动未来利润加速释放。</p><p>雪球平台的行业分析则给出了更长期的市值展望，认为若汽车业务放量与AI技术突破形成共振，小米市值有望突破2.5万亿港元，甚至挑战4万亿港元天花板。</p><p>但这种乐观预期难以掩盖短期业绩压力，截至10月27日，<strong>已有多家国际投行下调小米目标价，其中瑞银在今年8月份就将小米目标价从62港元调至60港元。</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>也在8月份将小米集团2025至2027年净利润预测下调5%至6%。目标价下调至75.9港元，原因为供应链限制对电动车业务扩张的影响，以及2025年第三季度传统淡季和新机发布减少对智能手机出货量的制约。</p><p>从历史财务数据来看，小米的业绩波动已显现端倪。</p><p>2025年上半年，公司实现总营收2272.49亿元，归母净利润228.29亿元，净利润率达10.02%，但这一亮眼数据主要依赖Q1的爆发式增长，Q2以来智能手机业务增速放缓。</p><p>根据IDC，3Q25小米全球智能手机出货量同比增长1.8%至4350万台，其中中国市场同比略降1.7%至1000万台，该行判断主因“国补”退坡。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251027170625255v201qgbbud0bjd3\"/><p><strong>生态战略遇阻</strong></p><p>小米“手机×AIoT×汽”的生态蓝图看似宏伟，实则在研发与制造环节暗藏隐忧。</p><p>在研发端，尽管公司过去5年累计投入1050亿元，2025年预计研发投入超300亿元，其中75亿元专项用于自动驾驶技术优化，但研发资源的分散导致核心业务突破乏力。</p><p>智能手机领域，自研芯片“玄戒O1”虽号称综合性能接近<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>骁龙8Gen2，却迟迟未能实现大规模量产，高端机型仍高度依赖高通芯片供应；IoT业务则陷入“规模不经济”的怪圈，连接设备超9亿台的背后，是白电、智能家居等品类的同质化竞争。</p><p><strong>制造环节的问题则更为突出。</strong></p><p>汽车业务作为小米的战略重心，产能与品控现在都出了问题。</p><p>特别是小米汽车的品控缺陷引发的信任危机持续发酵。3月29日安徽铜陵高速上，小米SU7在NOA辅助驾驶状态下以97km/h时速撞上水泥桩，碰撞后车门无法打开且迅速起火，导致3人遇难。</p><p>更令人诟病的是，SU7 Ultra车型宣传的“碳纤维双风道前舱盖”被车主实测为普通铝制结构，引发大规模维权事件，尽管小米提出补偿方案，但未能平息消费者不满。</p><p>供应链管理的短板也在加剧困境。</p><p>小米汽车核心零部件和电机、电控等关键部件依赖外部供应商，导致成本控制难度加大。高额的研发与供应链成本让小米汽车陷入“卖得越多，亏得越多”的尴尬境地。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251027170625867v201311w9kbn1k3\"/><p><strong>雷军公信力遇冷</strong></p><p>如果说研发制造问题是小米的“内伤”，那么汽车安全事故引发的品牌危机则是“外伤”，且已严重伤及雷军本人的公信力。</p><p>尤其是3月底铜陵高速事故发生后，小米汽车销量急剧下降，<strong>零售销量从3月的2.92万辆下降到一个月后的2.72万辆。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251027170638901v201cv0qvp11enb\"/><p>更致命的是成都天府大道事故后的公关失当。</p><p>10月13日凌晨，一辆小米SU7在成都街头失控撞击后迅速起火，由于车门无法从外部打开，施救的路人只能看着汽车燃爆。</p><p>事件一出，瞬间点燃了公众对小米汽车安全性的疑虑，小米的股价应声下跌，跌幅一度达8.74％、蒸发市值近千亿。</p><p>尽管该事故主要责任在于车主酒驾超速，但车辆碰撞后起火、车窗无法砸破的细节再次引发公众对安全设计的质疑，而小米选择的长时间沉默，与雷军在世界智能网联汽车大会上“共同抵制网络水军和黑公关”的呼吁形成强烈反差。</p><p>《钱江晚报》发文尖锐批评：“企业不应将安全质疑与黑公关混为一谈，这种偷换概念实质是转移焦点”，胡锡进也评论指出“小米已给公众留下傲慢的印象”。</p><p>对于押上“全部声誉”造车的雷军而言，品牌形象的崩塌比业绩下滑更为致命。</p><p>从最初“135km/h能刹停故障车”的高调宣传，到事故后未能兑现的安全承诺，雷军的个人IP与小米品牌深度绑定的优势，如今已转化为劣势。</p><p>尽管<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603000\">人民网</a>曾发文肯定小米在芯片、新能源车领域的创新，称“没有不可逾越的高山”，但消费者的信任重建并非易事，很多消费者表示，将观望安全整改结果再决定是否购买。</p><p>如果小米不能正视研发制造的短板，不能修复受损的品牌信任，那么越过一座山丘后，等待小米的可能是更高的悬崖。</p><p><strong>雷军和小米，真的不能再这样下去了。</strong></p><p>编辑校对 |保镖</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251027170707a47743ad&s=b><strong>深水财经社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>对于押上“全部声誉”造车的雷军而言，品牌形象的崩塌比业绩下滑更为致命。作者 | 深水财经社纳兰10月27日的港股早盘，小米集团-W（01810.HK）的股价的一波大跳水惊出投资者一身冷汗，一度跌超4%至43.88港元，创下今年4月以来的最低纪录，直到下午又缓慢回升，跌幅收窄至1%以内。这波大跌的诱因是花旗集团在最新研报中发布的业绩预警，预计11月18日公布的2025年第三季度业绩将略低于预期，该...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251027170707a47743ad&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"81810":"小米集团-WR","BK1506":"5G概念","LU0235996351.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELECTION SICAV - ASIAN EQUITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1323998911.USD":"BGF ASIAN MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0117841782.USD":"JPM GREATER CHINA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1328277881.USD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH FUND \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU0417516738.SGD":"Allianz Hong Kong Equity AT Acc 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ACC","LU0675040207.SGD":"JPM ASIA PACIFIC EQUITY \"A\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348735423.USD":"ALLIANZ HONG KONG EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0211977185.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS GREATER CHINA EQUITY \"A\" ACC","LU0823413660.USD":"BNP PARIBAS EMERGING EQUITY \"C\" (USD) INC","HXXD.SI":"Xiaomi HK SDR 2to1","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251027170707a47743ad&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2578164316","content_text":"对于押上“全部声誉”造车的雷军而言，品牌形象的崩塌比业绩下滑更为致命。作者 | 深水财经社纳兰10月27日的港股早盘，小米集团-W（01810.HK）的股价的一波大跳水惊出投资者一身冷汗，一度跌超4%至43.88港元，创下今年4月以来的最低纪录，直到下午又缓慢回升，跌幅收窄至1%以内。这波大跌的诱因是花旗集团在最新研报中发布的业绩预警，预计11月18日公布的2025年第三季度业绩将略低于预期，该报告预测智能手机毛利率下滑与IoT业务收入不及预期，而曾被寄予厚望的“人车家全生态”战略，正遭遇消费者和投资者的双重质疑。机构预测分歧加剧机出货量预测下调200万台，并调低毛利率假设。不过，花旗维持对小米的“买入”资本市场对小米的态度正呈现明显分化。花旗在10月下旬发布的研报中明确指出，小米集团2025年第三季度小米集团调整后净利润达102亿元人民币（按年增长64%，按季度减5%），受智能手机毛利率因地区组合不利及内存产品价格上涨而拖累，以及物联网收入因中国补贴效应减弱所影响。花旗将其2025至2027年智能手评级，目标价从66港元微降至65港元，因长期增长主题不变。与之形成对比的是华泰证券的乐观预判，该行预计小米Q3汽车业务出货约10.9万台，实现收入286亿元，毛利率维持在26%以上的较高水平，因此维持“买入”评级。中金公司10月27日发布研报称，预计三季度经调整净利润同比增长68.88%，主要受益于手机高端化进展及汽车业务首次盈利。尽管存储成本上涨带来压力，但整体盈利能力改善趋势明确，汽车产能释放与新车型推出将驱动未来利润加速释放。雪球平台的行业分析则给出了更长期的市值展望，认为若汽车业务放量与AI技术突破形成共振，小米市值有望突破2.5万亿港元，甚至挑战4万亿港元天花板。但这种乐观预期难以掩盖短期业绩压力，截至10月27日，已有多家国际投行下调小米目标价，其中瑞银在今年8月份就将小米目标价从62港元调至60港元。汇丰也在8月份将小米集团2025至2027年净利润预测下调5%至6%。目标价下调至75.9港元，原因为供应链限制对电动车业务扩张的影响，以及2025年第三季度传统淡季和新机发布减少对智能手机出货量的制约。从历史财务数据来看，小米的业绩波动已显现端倪。2025年上半年，公司实现总营收2272.49亿元，归母净利润228.29亿元，净利润率达10.02%，但这一亮眼数据主要依赖Q1的爆发式增长，Q2以来智能手机业务增速放缓。根据IDC，3Q25小米全球智能手机出货量同比增长1.8%至4350万台，其中中国市场同比略降1.7%至1000万台，该行判断主因“国补”退坡。生态战略遇阻小米“手机×AIoT×汽”的生态蓝图看似宏伟，实则在研发与制造环节暗藏隐忧。在研发端，尽管公司过去5年累计投入1050亿元，2025年预计研发投入超300亿元，其中75亿元专项用于自动驾驶技术优化，但研发资源的分散导致核心业务突破乏力。智能手机领域，自研芯片“玄戒O1”虽号称综合性能接近高通骁龙8Gen2，却迟迟未能实现大规模量产，高端机型仍高度依赖高通芯片供应；IoT业务则陷入“规模不经济”的怪圈，连接设备超9亿台的背后，是白电、智能家居等品类的同质化竞争。制造环节的问题则更为突出。汽车业务作为小米的战略重心，产能与品控现在都出了问题。特别是小米汽车的品控缺陷引发的信任危机持续发酵。3月29日安徽铜陵高速上，小米SU7在NOA辅助驾驶状态下以97km/h时速撞上水泥桩，碰撞后车门无法打开且迅速起火，导致3人遇难。更令人诟病的是，SU7 Ultra车型宣传的“碳纤维双风道前舱盖”被车主实测为普通铝制结构，引发大规模维权事件，尽管小米提出补偿方案，但未能平息消费者不满。供应链管理的短板也在加剧困境。小米汽车核心零部件和电机、电控等关键部件依赖外部供应商，导致成本控制难度加大。高额的研发与供应链成本让小米汽车陷入“卖得越多，亏得越多”的尴尬境地。雷军公信力遇冷如果说研发制造问题是小米的“内伤”，那么汽车安全事故引发的品牌危机则是“外伤”，且已严重伤及雷军本人的公信力。尤其是3月底铜陵高速事故发生后，小米汽车销量急剧下降，零售销量从3月的2.92万辆下降到一个月后的2.72万辆。更致命的是成都天府大道事故后的公关失当。10月13日凌晨，一辆小米SU7在成都街头失控撞击后迅速起火，由于车门无法从外部打开，施救的路人只能看着汽车燃爆。事件一出，瞬间点燃了公众对小米汽车安全性的疑虑，小米的股价应声下跌，跌幅一度达8.74％、蒸发市值近千亿。尽管该事故主要责任在于车主酒驾超速，但车辆碰撞后起火、车窗无法砸破的细节再次引发公众对安全设计的质疑，而小米选择的长时间沉默，与雷军在世界智能网联汽车大会上“共同抵制网络水军和黑公关”的呼吁形成强烈反差。《钱江晚报》发文尖锐批评：“企业不应将安全质疑与黑公关混为一谈，这种偷换概念实质是转移焦点”，胡锡进也评论指出“小米已给公众留下傲慢的印象”。对于押上“全部声誉”造车的雷军而言，品牌形象的崩塌比业绩下滑更为致命。从最初“135km/h能刹停故障车”的高调宣传，到事故后未能兑现的安全承诺，雷军的个人IP与小米品牌深度绑定的优势，如今已转化为劣势。尽管人民网曾发文肯定小米在芯片、新能源车领域的创新，称“没有不可逾越的高山”，但消费者的信任重建并非易事，很多消费者表示，将观望安全整改结果再决定是否购买。如果小米不能正视研发制造的短板，不能修复受损的品牌信任，那么越过一座山丘后，等待小米的可能是更高的悬崖。雷军和小米，真的不能再这样下去了。编辑校对 |保镖","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"81810":0.6,"HXXD.SI":0.6,"XIACY":0.6,"01810":1.5,"MIUmain":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":552,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":488814619918400,"gmtCreate":1760366747274,"gmtModify":1760366749779,"author":{"id":"4133398059071332","authorId":"4133398059071332","name":"虎骨高","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36ec2c2d2405aed43a19933c5c6010ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4133398059071332","idStr":"4133398059071332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"高盛说谁涨，谁就跌，看看这几天的行情吧，他是给自己出货的机会呢","listText":"高盛说谁涨，谁就跌，看看这几天的行情吧，他是给自己出货的机会呢","text":"高盛说谁涨，谁就跌，看看这几天的行情吧，他是给自己出货的机会呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/488814619918400","repostId":"2575424827","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2575424827","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1760336595,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2575424827?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-13 14:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"高盛：腾讯估值不算苛刻，仍是中国最具确定性的AI应用受益股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2575424827","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛认为，AI能够赋能腾讯的几乎所有业务线。当前腾讯2026年市盈率19倍（剔除投资为16倍），估值低于Meta、谷歌。高盛上调腾讯资本开支预测至3500亿元人民币，并看好混元大模型在LMarena登顶、云业务领域的加速增长。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>高盛认为，AI能够赋能腾讯的几乎所有业务线，包括游戏、广告、金融科技、云服务和电子商务。当前腾讯2026年市盈率19倍（剔除投资为16倍），估值低于Meta、谷歌。高盛上调腾讯资本开支预测至3500亿元人民币，并看好混元大模型在LMarena登顶、云业务领域的加速增长。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>在一份最新研究报告中重申了对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>的“买入”评级，并上调其目标价，认为尽管该公司股价今年以来大幅上涨，但其估值与全球同行相比并不苛刻。<strong>腾讯依然是中国市场最具确定性的人工智能应用受益者。</strong></p><p>据追风交易台消息，在12日发布的报告中，高盛分析师Ronald Keung等人将腾讯的12个月目标价从701港元上调至770港元。今年迄今，腾讯股价上涨51%，跑赢同期恒生科技指数44%的涨幅。</p><p>高盛认为，尽管投资者对地缘政治风险的担忧再起，但腾讯的基本面依然强劲。其估值水平、在多个人工智能应用领域的变现潜力以及稳定的股东回报政策，共同构成了其核心投资逻辑。</p><p>该行预计，市场对腾讯即将于11月13日公布的第三季度业绩，将重点关注其AI应用与资本开支前景、基础及多模态大模型能力，以及游戏和广告等核心业务的增长可见性。预计腾讯Q3营收同比增长13%，每股收益同比增长18%，后者的增速将持续达到营收增速的1.5倍。这主要得益于广告、游戏和消费金融等高利润业务的驱动，以及公司整体的经营杠杆效应。</p><h2 id=\"id_4039559290\">估值仍有空间，低于全球同行</h2><p>尽管股价已经历一轮重估，但高盛认为腾讯的估值仍不算苛刻。报告指出，<strong>腾讯当前估值对应2026年预期非国际财务报告准则（non-IFRS）市盈率为19倍，若剔除其投资组合，则为16倍。</strong>从国际比较来看，其基于国际财务报告准则（IFRS）的市盈率为22倍，低于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>（24倍）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>（23倍）等全球科技巨头。</p><p>高盛在报告中给出了腾讯股价在基本、牛市和熊市三种情景下的估值，分别为770港元、846港元和541港元，认为其风险回报状况偏向积极。分析师认为，腾讯旗下资产的商业化程度相对不足，而AI将为各业务线带来多个新的变现驱动力，这为其未来增长留下了空间。截至发稿，腾讯股价为635港元/股。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/935a3c51b80ef9948bfb98746b301b4b\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_499855191\">AI全面赋能，混元大模型取得突破</h2><p>高盛将腾讯视为“中国互联网行业中，定位最佳的AI应用核心标的之一”，<strong>其核心逻辑在于AI能够赋能腾讯的几乎所有业务线，包括游戏、广告、金融科技、云服务和电子商务，并通过其独特的微信生态系统和全球游戏资产实现落地。</strong></p><p>报告特别强调了腾讯在AI领域的最新突破。其自研的混元图像大模型Hunyuan Image 3.0，近期在权威的文本到图像模型排行榜LMarena上排名第一，表现优于包括OpenAI旗下模型在内的全球领先同行。这是混元大模型首次在全球基准测试中登顶。此外，其AI应用“元宝”App的日活跃用户（DAU）在第三季度实现了12%的环比增长（据QuestMobile数据）。</p><p>高盛认为，借鉴Kakao与OpenAI合作将其模型整合进KakaoTalk的案例，微信未来在AI搜索和生产力功能之外，有望探索更多AI智能体功能，进一步强化其“超级应用”的生态地位。</p><h2 id=\"id_486226403\">上调资本开支与云业务预期</h2><p>基于对AI需求的乐观判断，高盛上调了对腾讯的资本开支预测。<strong>该行将腾讯2025至2027财年的资本开支总额预测从3000亿元人民币上调至3500亿元人民币，并预计其2025至2027年的年度资本开支将分别达到1000亿、1170亿和1290亿元人民币。</strong></p><p>高盛认为，未来几年国内芯片供应的增加，将为腾讯的AI推理需求提供支持。资本开支的增加将直接利好云业务。因此，高盛大幅上调了对腾讯云的收入增长预测，<strong>预计其在2025、2026和2027年的增速将分别达到11%、25%和20%，</strong>远高于此前8%、7%和6%的预测。基于更高的增长预期，高盛也将腾讯云业务的估值从每股38港元提升至每股48港元。</p><h2 id=\"id_3884049868\">游戏广告增长稳健，利润率持续扩张</h2><p>对于传统核心业务，高盛同样维持乐观预期。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>游戏业务：</strong> 预计2025年第三季度和全年的游戏收入将分别同比增长16%和18%。增长动力来自《三角洲行动》等新游戏的强劲表现，以及《王者荣耀》等<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603125\">常青</a>游戏的稳健运营。此外，《流放之路2》等重磅游戏储备也为未来增长提供了清晰的路线图。</p></li><li><p><strong>广告业务：</strong> 预计2025年第三季度和全年营销服务收入增速均为19%。AI驱动的广告技术升级提升了点击转化率，同时视频号广告加载率的提升和微信搜索广告等新库存的释放，将持续推动广告收入增长。</p></li><li><p><strong>利润率：</strong> 高盛预计，腾讯的利润率将继续扩张，2025年第三季度的经营利润率（OPM）将扩大212个基点。但随着AI相关的GPU折旧成本、研发投入和营销费用增加，利润增长与收入增长之间的差距可能会在未来逐渐收窄。</p></li></ul></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛：腾讯估值不算苛刻，仍是中国最具确定性的AI应用受益股</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛：腾讯估值不算苛刻，仍是中国最具确定性的AI应用受益股\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-13 14:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757067><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛认为，AI能够赋能腾讯的几乎所有业务线，包括游戏、广告、金融科技、云服务和电子商务。当前腾讯2026年市盈率19倍（剔除投资为16倍），估值低于Meta、谷歌。高盛上调腾讯资本开支预测至3500亿元人民币，并看好混元大模型在LMarena登顶、云业务领域的加速增长。高盛在一份最新研究报告中重申了对腾讯控股的“买入”评级，并上调其目标价，认为尽管该公司股价今年以来大幅上涨，但其估值与全球同行相比...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757067\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348784397.USD":"ALLIANZ ORIENTAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0348814723.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC  NC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2152927971.USD":"NORDEA 1 ASIAN STARS EQUITY \"BP\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","LU0823038988.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS ASIA EQUITY FOCUS  \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2462611646.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS REAL ASSETS TARGET INCOME \"A2\" (USD) INC MTI","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1807302812.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV ALL CHINA \"P\" (USD) 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(USD) ACC","SG9999001051.SGD":"United Asia Fund SGD","SG9999001069.SGD":"UOB UNITED ASIA PACIFIC GROWTH (SGD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757067","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2575424827","content_text":"高盛认为，AI能够赋能腾讯的几乎所有业务线，包括游戏、广告、金融科技、云服务和电子商务。当前腾讯2026年市盈率19倍（剔除投资为16倍），估值低于Meta、谷歌。高盛上调腾讯资本开支预测至3500亿元人民币，并看好混元大模型在LMarena登顶、云业务领域的加速增长。高盛在一份最新研究报告中重申了对腾讯控股的“买入”评级，并上调其目标价，认为尽管该公司股价今年以来大幅上涨，但其估值与全球同行相比并不苛刻。腾讯依然是中国市场最具确定性的人工智能应用受益者。据追风交易台消息，在12日发布的报告中，高盛分析师Ronald Keung等人将腾讯的12个月目标价从701港元上调至770港元。今年迄今，腾讯股价上涨51%，跑赢同期恒生科技指数44%的涨幅。高盛认为，尽管投资者对地缘政治风险的担忧再起，但腾讯的基本面依然强劲。其估值水平、在多个人工智能应用领域的变现潜力以及稳定的股东回报政策，共同构成了其核心投资逻辑。该行预计，市场对腾讯即将于11月13日公布的第三季度业绩，将重点关注其AI应用与资本开支前景、基础及多模态大模型能力，以及游戏和广告等核心业务的增长可见性。预计腾讯Q3营收同比增长13%，每股收益同比增长18%，后者的增速将持续达到营收增速的1.5倍。这主要得益于广告、游戏和消费金融等高利润业务的驱动，以及公司整体的经营杠杆效应。估值仍有空间，低于全球同行尽管股价已经历一轮重估，但高盛认为腾讯的估值仍不算苛刻。报告指出，腾讯当前估值对应2026年预期非国际财务报告准则（non-IFRS）市盈率为19倍，若剔除其投资组合，则为16倍。从国际比较来看，其基于国际财务报告准则（IFRS）的市盈率为22倍，低于Meta（24倍）和谷歌（23倍）等全球科技巨头。高盛在报告中给出了腾讯股价在基本、牛市和熊市三种情景下的估值，分别为770港元、846港元和541港元，认为其风险回报状况偏向积极。分析师认为，腾讯旗下资产的商业化程度相对不足，而AI将为各业务线带来多个新的变现驱动力，这为其未来增长留下了空间。截至发稿，腾讯股价为635港元/股。AI全面赋能，混元大模型取得突破高盛将腾讯视为“中国互联网行业中，定位最佳的AI应用核心标的之一”，其核心逻辑在于AI能够赋能腾讯的几乎所有业务线，包括游戏、广告、金融科技、云服务和电子商务，并通过其独特的微信生态系统和全球游戏资产实现落地。报告特别强调了腾讯在AI领域的最新突破。其自研的混元图像大模型Hunyuan Image 3.0，近期在权威的文本到图像模型排行榜LMarena上排名第一，表现优于包括OpenAI旗下模型在内的全球领先同行。这是混元大模型首次在全球基准测试中登顶。此外，其AI应用“元宝”App的日活跃用户（DAU）在第三季度实现了12%的环比增长（据QuestMobile数据）。高盛认为，借鉴Kakao与OpenAI合作将其模型整合进KakaoTalk的案例，微信未来在AI搜索和生产力功能之外，有望探索更多AI智能体功能，进一步强化其“超级应用”的生态地位。上调资本开支与云业务预期基于对AI需求的乐观判断，高盛上调了对腾讯的资本开支预测。该行将腾讯2025至2027财年的资本开支总额预测从3000亿元人民币上调至3500亿元人民币，并预计其2025至2027年的年度资本开支将分别达到1000亿、1170亿和1290亿元人民币。高盛认为，未来几年国内芯片供应的增加，将为腾讯的AI推理需求提供支持。资本开支的增加将直接利好云业务。因此，高盛大幅上调了对腾讯云的收入增长预测，预计其在2025、2026和2027年的增速将分别达到11%、25%和20%，远高于此前8%、7%和6%的预测。基于更高的增长预期，高盛也将腾讯云业务的估值从每股38港元提升至每股48港元。游戏广告增长稳健，利润率持续扩张对于传统核心业务，高盛同样维持乐观预期。游戏业务： 预计2025年第三季度和全年的游戏收入将分别同比增长16%和18%。增长动力来自《三角洲行动》等新游戏的强劲表现，以及《王者荣耀》等常青游戏的稳健运营。此外，《流放之路2》等重磅游戏储备也为未来增长提供了清晰的路线图。广告业务： 预计2025年第三季度和全年营销服务收入增速均为19%。AI驱动的广告技术升级提升了点击转化率，同时视频号广告加载率的提升和微信搜索广告等新库存的释放，将持续推动广告收入增长。利润率： 高盛预计，腾讯的利润率将继续扩张，2025年第三季度的经营利润率（OPM）将扩大212个基点。但随着AI相关的GPU折旧成本、研发投入和营销费用增加，利润增长与收入增长之间的差距可能会在未来逐渐收窄。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":483978761322552,"gmtCreate":1759188070299,"gmtModify":1759188072707,"author":{"id":"4133398059071332","authorId":"4133398059071332","name":"虎骨高","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36ec2c2d2405aed43a19933c5c6010ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4133398059071332","idStr":"4133398059071332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还吹呢，全是话术，骗子🤥","listText":"还吹呢，全是话术，骗子🤥","text":"还吹呢，全是话术，骗子🤥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/483978761322552","repostId":"2570828687","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2570828687","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1759066386,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2570828687?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-28 21:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"从追赶到定义：小米17系列的“改变”背后","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2570828687","media":"澎湃新闻","summary":"小米17系列的产品设计哲学发生了根本性转变。小米17 Pro系列的影像系统命名为“徕卡光影大师”，首发光影猎人950L传感器，结合LOFIC高动态技术，动态范围高达16.5EV，大幅改善逆光场景下的画质纯净度，被官方称为“移动影像逆光之王”。小米17系列最大的改变，或许不在于其本身，而在于它作为“生态中心”的连接能力。此外，小米平板8系列的发布进一步丰富了场景化体验。","content":"<div>\n<p>澎湃新闻记者 宋一聪在9月25日的小米17系列发布会上，小米公司正式揭晓了其年度旗舰——小米17系列，包括小米17、小米17 Pro以及顶配机型小米17 Pro Max。而这场发布会的前奏，是雷军第六次年度演讲，主题仅有两个字：“改变”。这次的演讲海报也有点特别——雷军以正装形象坐在办公椅上，似乎是在沉思和回忆。在长达一小时的演讲中，雷军并未过多纠缠于具体参数，而是回顾了小米创业十五年来的关键抉择...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250928230948a44a5bb4&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从追赶到定义：小米17系列的“改变”背后\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-28 21:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250928230948a44a5bb4&s=b><strong>澎湃新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>澎湃新闻记者 宋一聪在9月25日的小米17系列发布会上，小米公司正式揭晓了其年度旗舰——小米17系列，包括小米17、小米17 Pro以及顶配机型小米17 Pro Max。而这场发布会的前奏，是雷军第六次年度演讲，主题仅有两个字：“改变”。这次的演讲海报也有点特别——雷军以正装形象坐在办公椅上，似乎是在沉思和回忆。在长达一小时的演讲中，雷军并未过多纠缠于具体参数，而是回顾了小米创业十五年来的关键抉择...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250928230948a44a5bb4&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"81810":"小米集团-WR","LU0594300179.USD":"FIDELITY CHINA CONSUMER \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1615":"港股-互联网","LU0149721374.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU2476274308.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2097828557.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1607":"新IT概念","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" 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ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0797268264.HKD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","BK1610":"ETF&股票定投概念"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250928230948a44a5bb4&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2570828687","content_text":"澎湃新闻记者 宋一聪在9月25日的小米17系列发布会上，小米公司正式揭晓了其年度旗舰——小米17系列，包括小米17、小米17 Pro以及顶配机型小米17 Pro Max。而这场发布会的前奏，是雷军第六次年度演讲，主题仅有两个字：“改变”。这次的演讲海报也有点特别——雷军以正装形象坐在办公椅上，似乎是在沉思和回忆。在长达一小时的演讲中，雷军并未过多纠缠于具体参数，而是回顾了小米创业十五年来的关键抉择，并着重分享了小米玄戒芯片的攻坚历程与小米汽车背后的战略思考。“造车和重启造芯，几乎是同时做的决策，把小米十年攒下的家底全押上了。”雷军在微博上感慨：“说实话，‘同时供家里两个孩子上大学’，压力巨大。”面对巨大的不确定性和挑战，小米还是决定供起这两个“孩子”。因为，“失败本身并不可怕，正视内心的恐惧，才是关键。”在全球科技竞争格局深度重构的今天，小米的这场“改变”，究竟意味着什么？答案或许正藏在产品细节与战略布局的深处，为我们观察中国科技产业的跃迁提供了一个清晰窗口。产品之变：从参数领先到定义标准的“硬核革新”小米17系列的发布，在许多人看来似乎是一场技术实力的集中展示，但这一次，小米展现出了另一种自信——从追逐行业标准，转向自我定义标准。小米17系列的产品设计哲学发生了根本性转变。其标准版坚持“最强小尺寸全能旗舰”定位，在8.06毫米厚度内塞入7000mAh金沙江电池，具备超高能量密度与优异低温表现，循环寿命长达五年，配合100W有线与50W无线澎湃秒充，精准解决了一般手机用户“电量焦虑”的痛点。小米17标准版搭载高通第五代骁龙8至尊版移动平台。该芯片采用第三代3nm制程工艺，CPU主频高达4.6GHz。GPU方面，引入了独立图形缓存设计，容量提升50%，功耗降低30%。配合立体环形冷泵散热系统，其导热效率达到传统VC均热板的三倍，在重载游戏和高温环境下仍能保持稳定性能输出。小米17 Pro系列的影像系统命名为“徕卡光影大师”，首发光影猎人950L传感器，结合LOFIC高动态技术，动态范围高达16.5EV，大幅改善逆光场景下的画质纯净度，被官方称为“移动影像逆光之王”。长焦镜头升级为5倍大底潜望式结构，进光量提升30%，远摄细节更丰富。发布会展示的样张中，极其复杂的光线环境下依然能保留丰富的细节与自然的影调，这背后是芯片、传感器、光学镜片与算法的系统性融合。小米正在告别以往安卓阵营一度盛行的“传感器尺寸军备竞赛”，转向一个技术门槛更高、体验更趋极致的全链路创新模式。而Pro系列搭载的“妙享背屏”更是一次突破性的智能手机交互创新——它不再是参数的简单堆砌，而是基于用户真实需求的功能创造。这块围绕在摄像头旁边的屏幕，并非简单复刻功能机时代的副屏，而是一块具备高刷新率、低功耗的智能交互窗口。这块背屏可用于显示时钟、AI生成头像或宠物形象，也可推送出行提醒、音乐播放信息等通知内容，以及一些趣味功能包括大头贴模式与“便利贴”快捷记录，用户可将重要事项一键固定于背部屏幕。更重要的是，该背屏还支持后置主摄自拍预览，他人协助拍摄时可实时查看构图效果。这块背屏的巧妙之处在于，它既解决了后置摄像头自拍的预览难题，又创造了全新的信息交互方式。当其他厂商仍在屏幕刷新率和亮度上进行军备竞赛时，小米已经开辟了手机形态创新的第二战场。发布会后，在各大社交媒体平台“刷屏”的还有这块副屏的另一种用法：配合专用的复古掌机形态保护壳，可以用这块副屏来玩各种怀旧老游戏，在发布会现场演示的《愤怒的小鸟》，瞬间勾起了无数人的回忆。在主流厂商都将手机正面屏幕追求到极致，设计渐趋同质化的当下，小米通过在机身背面开辟“第二战场”，极大地提升了单手握持下的操作效率。这一设计是否有可能像当年的全面屏一样，引发行业跟风，成为未来旗舰机型的标配之一？对行业而言，这正是“定义者”角色的体现。小米17系列最大的改变，或许不在于其本身，而在于它作为“生态中心”的连接能力。发布会上，小米17与小米汽车SU7的互动演示引发了阵阵掌声：手机轻触车门实现无感解锁，上车后导航、音乐会话无缝流转至车机，甚至能调用车辆摄像头作为行车记录仪的补充视角。与此同时，与家中空调、灯光、电视等数百款小米生态链设备的协同也更加智能无感。全系标配的UWB超宽带技术使手机与小米汽车之间建立了空间感知能力，实现了靠近自动解锁、离车自动落锁的无缝体验。此外，小米平板8系列的发布进一步丰富了场景化体验。澎湃OS 3系统带来的PC级分屏操作与浏览器体验，焦点触控笔Pro的1ms超低延迟，这些都不再是孤立的功能点，而是构成了完整的生产力解决方案。小米Sound 2 Max音箱的CD级无损音质传输、米家三区洗衣机Pro的分区洗涤技术、路由器BE10000 Pro的全屋智能中枢能力，这些产品共同绘制出一幅全景智能生活图景。小米早已是智能家庭生态的领跑者，而小米汽车的成功加入，彻底打通了“人-车-家”三大核心场景的壁垒。小米率先将竞争维度从“单机”的硬件性能，拉升到了“全生态”的体验完整性。这意味着，下一代智能终端将不再是信息孤岛，而是以一个整体，无缝融入并主动服务于用户的智慧生活。也不难看出，小米的产品创新逻辑已从“我们有什么技术就堆什么料”，转变为“用户需要什么场景我们就创造什么解决方案”。行业之变：小米效应与中国科技产业的“格局革新”若我们回顾中国科技产业的发展历史，小米的出现无疑是无法绕过的一个里程碑。小米曾经几乎以一己之力，以高性价比、有设计感和品质感的产品带动了整个智能产品生态的发展，从而重塑了“中国制造”产品在消费者心目中的印象。回望十五年前，中国消费电子市场仍是国际品牌的天下，国产品牌常与“低端”、“山寨”等标签挂钩。小米的横空出世，以“互联网手机”模式，用接近成本价的定价和出色的设计感，几乎以一己之力普及了智能手机，并带动了整个产业链的升级。2011年，初代小米手机的发布如同一声惊雷，迫使整个行业重新思考手机的定价策略，开启了智能手机的普及浪潮，让更多消费者以更低成本享受到科技乐趣。雷军首创了“互联网手机”模式：高配置+低价格+线上销售。这款售价1999元的手机，提供了当时需要三四千元才能买到的性能，通过官网直接销售，砍掉了中间渠道成本。而“上市即爆款”的小米的规模效应带动了上游供应链（如显示屏、电池、芯片等）的发展，为中国手机供应链的成熟和壮大提供了重要订单和支持。小米还为中国科技行业带来了另一种从未有过的运营模式：社区运营。通过MIUI社区运营，小米在上市前就积累了庞大的核心用户群，这种用户参与感的互联网思维，为后续的生态链模式奠定了基础。为什么后来的小米生态链能够成功，而别的品牌却很难复制这种模式？高用户参与度是一个关键。从行业角度来看，小米生态链及其系列产品的成功，是比单一产品更具战略意义的创新。小米通过“投资+孵化”的模式，培育了一大批专注于智能硬件的公司（如华米、紫米、智米等）。小米为其提供资金、供应链、渠道和品牌背书，让它们能快速推出高质量产品。生态链产品如小米移动电源、空气净化器、扫地机器人等，以简约设计、可靠品质和合理价格，彻底改变了全球消费者对“中国制造”低价劣质的刻板印象，树立了“优质优价”的新国货形象。更重要的是，小米率先搭建起全球最大的消费级IoT平台，通过手机APP控制各类家电产品的体验，让“万物互联”从概念走向普通家庭，引领了全球科技巨头进军智能家居的潮流。此后，小米生态链模式孵化出上百家智能硬件公司，将这种对品质和设计的追求复制到充电宝、手环、空气净化器等各个领域，彻底颠覆了全球消费者对“中国制造”的刻板印象。创业十五年的小米，其发展轨迹与国产智能科技的逆袭之路高度重合，当之无愧地成为中国创新实力的新名片。小米向世界证明，中国公司不仅能制造出高质量、有设计感的产品，还能创造出极具效率的商业新模式。而正如文章刚开始，雷军所说，在科技产品领域，小米最想挑战的两个领域，就是芯片和造车。2017年，小米推出首款手机SoC芯片澎湃S1，搭载于小米5C。这是一次勇敢的尝试，证明了小米进入核心研发领域的决心。虽然其在性能和功耗上与当时的主流芯片存在差距，但为小米积累了宝贵的经验、技术和人才。在意识到直接研发大型SoC的极高难度和风险后，小米调整了策略，转向“由易到难、由外到内”的路径，即先从周边专用芯片入手，逐步积累技术，再向核心芯片迈进。这一时期，小米陆续推出了澎湃C1（影像芯片）、澎湃P1（充电芯片）等，在特定领域取得了成功。2025年6月26日晚间，小米方面召开了以“新起点”为题的发布会。在这次发布会上，名为玄戒O1的芯片成为了主角之一。作为国内手机厂商到目前为止的唯一一款3nm制程芯片，它搭载于小米15SPro、小米平板7Ultra上，已经实现大规模量产，是一款标准的高性能的先进芯片。而小米造车，曾经更是一个让科技业、汽车业都听起来类似天方夜谭的“妄言”。即使强如苹果，也在精心准备许久之后决定放弃造车计划，小米又有什么资本来进入汽车这个重资产、高投入、高技术门槛的行业？但如今大家也看到了小米汽车诞生之后所取得的一系列骄人的成绩。作为小米成立以来最重大、最复杂的战略决策，其成果小米SU7的发布，震惊了整个行业。小米SU7凭借出色的外观设计和精良的内饰工艺，一举打破了人们对“科技公司造车不懂设计”的偏见。小米SU7发布后，订单量迅速突破10万大关，创造了汽车行业的纪录，证明了市场对其产品力和品牌力的高度认可。即使在二手车市场，小米Su7和Yu7也一度是一车难求。小米汽车项目在3年内从零走到量产上市，展现了小米恐怖的战略执行力、资源整合能力和工程实现能力。从行业生态上看，汽车是智能手机之后最重要的智能终端。小米通过造车，终于将其“人车家全生态”的战略蓝图补上了最关键的一块拼图，形成了一个完整的、内循环的生态系统。小米的持续创新，如同一条凶猛的“鲇鱼”，不断刺激着整个行业的神经。从早期的性价比策略，到后来冲击高端的核心技术投入，小米迫使竞争对手无法安于现状，必须同样加快技术迭代、提升产品力。这种良性竞争，共同将中国智能手机市场的“蛋糕”做得更大、品质更好，推动行业从早年间低水平的价格内卷，转向如今高水平的价值竞争。改变的下一站，是与世界巨头同维竞技而在全球化方面，小米同样带来了“改变”。早期中国产品出海，大多依赖低价策略。而小米则凭借“技术+生态”的组合拳，在欧洲、东南亚、拉美等市场成功树立了高端、时尚、科技感的品牌形象。小米之家在巴黎、柏林等地的旗舰店成为当地科技地标，小米手机、滑板车、智能家居产品组成的生态体系，让全球消费者体验到一种来自中国的、前瞻性的生活方式。这种模式，改变的不仅是市场占有率，更是中国科技品牌的价值内涵，成为一种文化软实力的有效输出。回到这次所发布的主角——小米17系列上，这是小米长期坚持技术创新与战略变革的集中成果展示。它的意义，远超一款旗舰手机本身。从追赶到定义，小米的“改变”，是中国科技产业从自信、自强到走向自主的生动体现。小米的改变，正是中国科技企业改变的缩影——它清楚地向世界展示了一个事实：中国科技企业已经具备了在芯片、操作系统、终端产品、生态服务等多个核心层面进行全栈式创新的能力。下一个十年，小米们将不再满足于在既有赛道跟随，而是有志于、也有能力去开辟新赛道，与全球顶尖科技巨头在同一个维度上，定义未来智能生活的图景。当下，我们见证的不仅是一款产品的诞生，更是一个新时代的开启。在下一个十年，来自中国的科技企业，将与全球顶尖科技巨头在同一个维度上竞争。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"81810":0.6,"XIACF":0.9,"HXXD.SI":0.6,"01810":1.5,"MIUmain":0.6,"XIACY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":483981387255952,"gmtCreate":1759187980156,"gmtModify":1759187982127,"author":{"id":"4133398059071332","authorId":"4133398059071332","name":"虎骨高","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36ec2c2d2405aed43a19933c5c6010ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4133398059071332","idStr":"4133398059071332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251027170614767v201tvrqeo6af75\"/><p><strong>机构预测分歧加剧</strong></p><p>机出货量预测下调200万台，并调低毛利率假设。</p><p>不过，花旗维持对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>的“买入”资本市场对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/81810\">小米</a>的态度正呈现明显分化。</p><p>花旗在10月下旬发布的研报中明确指出，小米集团2025年第三季度小米集团调整后<span>净利润</span>达102亿元人民币（按年增长64%，按季度减5%），受智能手机毛利率因地区组合不利及内存产品价格上涨而拖累，以及物联网收入因中国补贴效应减弱所影响。</p><p><strong>花旗将其2025至2027年智能手评级，目标价从66港元微降至65港元，因长期增长主题不变。</strong></p><p>与之形成对比的是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">华泰证券</a>的乐观预判，该行预计小米Q3汽车业务<span>出货</span>约10.9万台，实现收入286亿元，毛利率维持在26%以上的较高水平，因此维持“买入”评级。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601995\">中金公司</a>10月27日发布研报称，预计三季度经调整净利润同比增长68.88%，主要受益于手机高端化进展及汽车业务首次盈利。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251027170615550v201c21sigwjiip\"/><p>尽管存储成本上涨带来压力，但整体盈利能力改善趋势明确，汽车产能释放与新车型推出将驱动未来利润加速释放。</p><p>雪球平台的行业分析则给出了更长期的市值展望，认为若汽车业务放量与AI技术突破形成共振，小米市值有望突破2.5万亿港元，甚至挑战4万亿港元天花板。</p><p>但这种乐观预期难以掩盖短期业绩压力，截至10月27日，<strong>已有多家国际投行下调小米目标价，其中瑞银在今年8月份就将小米目标价从62港元调至60港元。</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>也在8月份将小米集团2025至2027年净利润预测下调5%至6%。目标价下调至75.9港元，原因为供应链限制对电动车业务扩张的影响，以及2025年第三季度传统淡季和新机发布减少对智能手机出货量的制约。</p><p>从历史财务数据来看，小米的业绩波动已显现端倪。</p><p>2025年上半年，公司实现总营收2272.49亿元，归母净利润228.29亿元，净利润率达10.02%，但这一亮眼数据主要依赖Q1的爆发式增长，Q2以来智能手机业务增速放缓。</p><p>根据IDC，3Q25小米全球智能手机出货量同比增长1.8%至4350万台，其中中国市场同比略降1.7%至1000万台，该行判断主因“国补”退坡。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251027170625255v201qgbbud0bjd3\"/><p><strong>生态战略遇阻</strong></p><p>小米“手机×AIoT×汽”的生态蓝图看似宏伟，实则在研发与制造环节暗藏隐忧。</p><p>在研发端，尽管公司过去5年累计投入1050亿元，2025年预计研发投入超300亿元，其中75亿元专项用于自动驾驶技术优化，但研发资源的分散导致核心业务突破乏力。</p><p>智能手机领域，自研芯片“玄戒O1”虽号称综合性能接近<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>骁龙8Gen2，却迟迟未能实现大规模量产，高端机型仍高度依赖高通芯片供应；IoT业务则陷入“规模不经济”的怪圈，连接设备超9亿台的背后，是白电、智能家居等品类的同质化竞争。</p><p><strong>制造环节的问题则更为突出。</strong></p><p>汽车业务作为小米的战略重心，产能与品控现在都出了问题。</p><p>特别是小米汽车的品控缺陷引发的信任危机持续发酵。3月29日安徽铜陵高速上，小米SU7在NOA辅助驾驶状态下以97km/h时速撞上水泥桩，碰撞后车门无法打开且迅速起火，导致3人遇难。</p><p>更令人诟病的是，SU7 Ultra车型宣传的“碳纤维双风道前舱盖”被车主实测为普通铝制结构，引发大规模维权事件，尽管小米提出补偿方案，但未能平息消费者不满。</p><p>供应链管理的短板也在加剧困境。</p><p>小米汽车核心零部件和电机、电控等关键部件依赖外部供应商，导致成本控制难度加大。高额的研发与供应链成本让小米汽车陷入“卖得越多，亏得越多”的尴尬境地。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251027170625867v201311w9kbn1k3\"/><p><strong>雷军公信力遇冷</strong></p><p>如果说研发制造问题是小米的“内伤”，那么汽车安全事故引发的品牌危机则是“外伤”，且已严重伤及雷军本人的公信力。</p><p>尤其是3月底铜陵高速事故发生后，小米汽车销量急剧下降，<strong>零售销量从3月的2.92万辆下降到一个月后的2.72万辆。</strong></p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20251027170638901v201cv0qvp11enb\"/><p>更致命的是成都天府大道事故后的公关失当。</p><p>10月13日凌晨，一辆小米SU7在成都街头失控撞击后迅速起火，由于车门无法从外部打开，施救的路人只能看着汽车燃爆。</p><p>事件一出，瞬间点燃了公众对小米汽车安全性的疑虑，小米的股价应声下跌，跌幅一度达8.74％、蒸发市值近千亿。</p><p>尽管该事故主要责任在于车主酒驾超速，但车辆碰撞后起火、车窗无法砸破的细节再次引发公众对安全设计的质疑，而小米选择的长时间沉默，与雷军在世界智能网联汽车大会上“共同抵制网络水军和黑公关”的呼吁形成强烈反差。</p><p>《钱江晚报》发文尖锐批评：“企业不应将安全质疑与黑公关混为一谈，这种偷换概念实质是转移焦点”，胡锡进也评论指出“小米已给公众留下傲慢的印象”。</p><p>对于押上“全部声誉”造车的雷军而言，品牌形象的崩塌比业绩下滑更为致命。</p><p>从最初“135km/h能刹停故障车”的高调宣传，到事故后未能兑现的安全承诺，雷军的个人IP与小米品牌深度绑定的优势，如今已转化为劣势。</p><p>尽管<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603000\">人民网</a>曾发文肯定小米在芯片、新能源车领域的创新，称“没有不可逾越的高山”，但消费者的信任重建并非易事，很多消费者表示，将观望安全整改结果再决定是否购买。</p><p>如果小米不能正视研发制造的短板，不能修复受损的品牌信任，那么越过一座山丘后，等待小米的可能是更高的悬崖。</p><p><strong>雷军和小米，真的不能再这样下去了。</strong></p><p>编辑校对 |保镖</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小米越过山丘还是悬崖，雷军不能这样下去了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-27 16:53 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251027170707a47743ad&s=b><strong>深水财经社</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>对于押上“全部声誉”造车的雷军而言，品牌形象的崩塌比业绩下滑更为致命。作者 | 深水财经社纳兰10月27日的港股早盘，小米集团-W（01810.HK）的股价的一波大跳水惊出投资者一身冷汗，一度跌超4%至43.88港元，创下今年4月以来的最低纪录，直到下午又缓慢回升，跌幅收窄至1%以内。这波大跌的诱因是花旗集团在最新研报中发布的业绩预警，预计11月18日公布的2025年第三季度业绩将略低于预期，该...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251027170707a47743ad&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"81810":"小米集团-WR","BK1506":"5G概念","LU0235996351.USD":"UBS (LUX) KEY SELECTION SICAV - ASIAN EQUITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1323998911.USD":"BGF ASIAN MULTI-ASSET INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0117841782.USD":"JPM GREATER CHINA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1328277881.USD":"MANULIFE GF DRAGON GROWTH FUND \"AA\" (USD) INC","LU0417516738.SGD":"Allianz Hong Kong Equity AT Acc 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深水财经社纳兰10月27日的港股早盘，小米集团-W（01810.HK）的股价的一波大跳水惊出投资者一身冷汗，一度跌超4%至43.88港元，创下今年4月以来的最低纪录，直到下午又缓慢回升，跌幅收窄至1%以内。这波大跌的诱因是花旗集团在最新研报中发布的业绩预警，预计11月18日公布的2025年第三季度业绩将略低于预期，该报告预测智能手机毛利率下滑与IoT业务收入不及预期，而曾被寄予厚望的“人车家全生态”战略，正遭遇消费者和投资者的双重质疑。机构预测分歧加剧机出货量预测下调200万台，并调低毛利率假设。不过，花旗维持对小米的“买入”资本市场对小米的态度正呈现明显分化。花旗在10月下旬发布的研报中明确指出，小米集团2025年第三季度小米集团调整后净利润达102亿元人民币（按年增长64%，按季度减5%），受智能手机毛利率因地区组合不利及内存产品价格上涨而拖累，以及物联网收入因中国补贴效应减弱所影响。花旗将其2025至2027年智能手评级，目标价从66港元微降至65港元，因长期增长主题不变。与之形成对比的是华泰证券的乐观预判，该行预计小米Q3汽车业务出货约10.9万台，实现收入286亿元，毛利率维持在26%以上的较高水平，因此维持“买入”评级。中金公司10月27日发布研报称，预计三季度经调整净利润同比增长68.88%，主要受益于手机高端化进展及汽车业务首次盈利。尽管存储成本上涨带来压力，但整体盈利能力改善趋势明确，汽车产能释放与新车型推出将驱动未来利润加速释放。雪球平台的行业分析则给出了更长期的市值展望，认为若汽车业务放量与AI技术突破形成共振，小米市值有望突破2.5万亿港元，甚至挑战4万亿港元天花板。但这种乐观预期难以掩盖短期业绩压力，截至10月27日，已有多家国际投行下调小米目标价，其中瑞银在今年8月份就将小米目标价从62港元调至60港元。汇丰也在8月份将小米集团2025至2027年净利润预测下调5%至6%。目标价下调至75.9港元，原因为供应链限制对电动车业务扩张的影响，以及2025年第三季度传统淡季和新机发布减少对智能手机出货量的制约。从历史财务数据来看，小米的业绩波动已显现端倪。2025年上半年，公司实现总营收2272.49亿元，归母净利润228.29亿元，净利润率达10.02%，但这一亮眼数据主要依赖Q1的爆发式增长，Q2以来智能手机业务增速放缓。根据IDC，3Q25小米全球智能手机出货量同比增长1.8%至4350万台，其中中国市场同比略降1.7%至1000万台，该行判断主因“国补”退坡。生态战略遇阻小米“手机×AIoT×汽”的生态蓝图看似宏伟，实则在研发与制造环节暗藏隐忧。在研发端，尽管公司过去5年累计投入1050亿元，2025年预计研发投入超300亿元，其中75亿元专项用于自动驾驶技术优化，但研发资源的分散导致核心业务突破乏力。智能手机领域，自研芯片“玄戒O1”虽号称综合性能接近高通骁龙8Gen2，却迟迟未能实现大规模量产，高端机型仍高度依赖高通芯片供应；IoT业务则陷入“规模不经济”的怪圈，连接设备超9亿台的背后，是白电、智能家居等品类的同质化竞争。制造环节的问题则更为突出。汽车业务作为小米的战略重心，产能与品控现在都出了问题。特别是小米汽车的品控缺陷引发的信任危机持续发酵。3月29日安徽铜陵高速上，小米SU7在NOA辅助驾驶状态下以97km/h时速撞上水泥桩，碰撞后车门无法打开且迅速起火，导致3人遇难。更令人诟病的是，SU7 Ultra车型宣传的“碳纤维双风道前舱盖”被车主实测为普通铝制结构，引发大规模维权事件，尽管小米提出补偿方案，但未能平息消费者不满。供应链管理的短板也在加剧困境。小米汽车核心零部件和电机、电控等关键部件依赖外部供应商，导致成本控制难度加大。高额的研发与供应链成本让小米汽车陷入“卖得越多，亏得越多”的尴尬境地。雷军公信力遇冷如果说研发制造问题是小米的“内伤”，那么汽车安全事故引发的品牌危机则是“外伤”，且已严重伤及雷军本人的公信力。尤其是3月底铜陵高速事故发生后，小米汽车销量急剧下降，零售销量从3月的2.92万辆下降到一个月后的2.72万辆。更致命的是成都天府大道事故后的公关失当。10月13日凌晨，一辆小米SU7在成都街头失控撞击后迅速起火，由于车门无法从外部打开，施救的路人只能看着汽车燃爆。事件一出，瞬间点燃了公众对小米汽车安全性的疑虑，小米的股价应声下跌，跌幅一度达8.74％、蒸发市值近千亿。尽管该事故主要责任在于车主酒驾超速，但车辆碰撞后起火、车窗无法砸破的细节再次引发公众对安全设计的质疑，而小米选择的长时间沉默，与雷军在世界智能网联汽车大会上“共同抵制网络水军和黑公关”的呼吁形成强烈反差。《钱江晚报》发文尖锐批评：“企业不应将安全质疑与黑公关混为一谈，这种偷换概念实质是转移焦点”，胡锡进也评论指出“小米已给公众留下傲慢的印象”。对于押上“全部声誉”造车的雷军而言，品牌形象的崩塌比业绩下滑更为致命。从最初“135km/h能刹停故障车”的高调宣传，到事故后未能兑现的安全承诺，雷军的个人IP与小米品牌深度绑定的优势，如今已转化为劣势。尽管人民网曾发文肯定小米在芯片、新能源车领域的创新，称“没有不可逾越的高山”，但消费者的信任重建并非易事，很多消费者表示，将观望安全整改结果再决定是否购买。如果小米不能正视研发制造的短板，不能修复受损的品牌信任，那么越过一座山丘后，等待小米的可能是更高的悬崖。雷军和小米，真的不能再这样下去了。编辑校对 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14:23","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"高盛：腾讯估值不算苛刻，仍是中国最具确定性的AI应用受益股","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2575424827","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"高盛认为，AI能够赋能腾讯的几乎所有业务线。当前腾讯2026年市盈率19倍（剔除投资为16倍），估值低于Meta、谷歌。高盛上调腾讯资本开支预测至3500亿元人民币，并看好混元大模型在LMarena登顶、云业务领域的加速增长。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>高盛认为，AI能够赋能腾讯的几乎所有业务线，包括游戏、广告、金融科技、云服务和电子商务。当前腾讯2026年市盈率19倍（剔除投资为16倍），估值低于Meta、谷歌。高盛上调腾讯资本开支预测至3500亿元人民币，并看好混元大模型在LMarena登顶、云业务领域的加速增长。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>在一份最新研究报告中重申了对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>的“买入”评级，并上调其目标价，认为尽管该公司股价今年以来大幅上涨，但其估值与全球同行相比并不苛刻。<strong>腾讯依然是中国市场最具确定性的人工智能应用受益者。</strong></p><p>据追风交易台消息，在12日发布的报告中，高盛分析师Ronald Keung等人将腾讯的12个月目标价从701港元上调至770港元。今年迄今，腾讯股价上涨51%，跑赢同期恒生科技指数44%的涨幅。</p><p>高盛认为，尽管投资者对地缘政治风险的担忧再起，但腾讯的基本面依然强劲。其估值水平、在多个人工智能应用领域的变现潜力以及稳定的股东回报政策，共同构成了其核心投资逻辑。</p><p>该行预计，市场对腾讯即将于11月13日公布的第三季度业绩，将重点关注其AI应用与资本开支前景、基础及多模态大模型能力，以及游戏和广告等核心业务的增长可见性。预计腾讯Q3营收同比增长13%，每股收益同比增长18%，后者的增速将持续达到营收增速的1.5倍。这主要得益于广告、游戏和消费金融等高利润业务的驱动，以及公司整体的经营杠杆效应。</p><h2 id=\"id_4039559290\">估值仍有空间，低于全球同行</h2><p>尽管股价已经历一轮重估，但高盛认为腾讯的估值仍不算苛刻。报告指出，<strong>腾讯当前估值对应2026年预期非国际财务报告准则（non-IFRS）市盈率为19倍，若剔除其投资组合，则为16倍。</strong>从国际比较来看，其基于国际财务报告准则（IFRS）的市盈率为22倍，低于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>（24倍）和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>（23倍）等全球科技巨头。</p><p>高盛在报告中给出了腾讯股价在基本、牛市和熊市三种情景下的估值，分别为770港元、846港元和541港元，认为其风险回报状况偏向积极。分析师认为，腾讯旗下资产的商业化程度相对不足，而AI将为各业务线带来多个新的变现驱动力，这为其未来增长留下了空间。截至发稿，腾讯股价为635港元/股。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/935a3c51b80ef9948bfb98746b301b4b\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_499855191\">AI全面赋能，混元大模型取得突破</h2><p>高盛将腾讯视为“中国互联网行业中，定位最佳的AI应用核心标的之一”，<strong>其核心逻辑在于AI能够赋能腾讯的几乎所有业务线，包括游戏、广告、金融科技、云服务和电子商务，并通过其独特的微信生态系统和全球游戏资产实现落地。</strong></p><p>报告特别强调了腾讯在AI领域的最新突破。其自研的混元图像大模型Hunyuan Image 3.0，近期在权威的文本到图像模型排行榜LMarena上排名第一，表现优于包括OpenAI旗下模型在内的全球领先同行。这是混元大模型首次在全球基准测试中登顶。此外，其AI应用“元宝”App的日活跃用户（DAU）在第三季度实现了12%的环比增长（据QuestMobile数据）。</p><p>高盛认为，借鉴Kakao与OpenAI合作将其模型整合进KakaoTalk的案例，微信未来在AI搜索和生产力功能之外，有望探索更多AI智能体功能，进一步强化其“超级应用”的生态地位。</p><h2 id=\"id_486226403\">上调资本开支与云业务预期</h2><p>基于对AI需求的乐观判断，高盛上调了对腾讯的资本开支预测。<strong>该行将腾讯2025至2027财年的资本开支总额预测从3000亿元人民币上调至3500亿元人民币，并预计其2025至2027年的年度资本开支将分别达到1000亿、1170亿和1290亿元人民币。</strong></p><p>高盛认为，未来几年国内芯片供应的增加，将为腾讯的AI推理需求提供支持。资本开支的增加将直接利好云业务。因此，高盛大幅上调了对腾讯云的收入增长预测，<strong>预计其在2025、2026和2027年的增速将分别达到11%、25%和20%，</strong>远高于此前8%、7%和6%的预测。基于更高的增长预期，高盛也将腾讯云业务的估值从每股38港元提升至每股48港元。</p><h2 id=\"id_3884049868\">游戏广告增长稳健，利润率持续扩张</h2><p>对于传统核心业务，高盛同样维持乐观预期。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>游戏业务：</strong> 预计2025年第三季度和全年的游戏收入将分别同比增长16%和18%。增长动力来自《三角洲行动》等新游戏的强劲表现，以及《王者荣耀》等<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603125\">常青</a>游戏的稳健运营。此外，《流放之路2》等重磅游戏储备也为未来增长提供了清晰的路线图。</p></li><li><p><strong>广告业务：</strong> 预计2025年第三季度和全年营销服务收入增速均为19%。AI驱动的广告技术升级提升了点击转化率，同时视频号广告加载率的提升和微信搜索广告等新库存的释放，将持续推动广告收入增长。</p></li><li><p><strong>利润率：</strong> 高盛预计，腾讯的利润率将继续扩张，2025年第三季度的经营利润率（OPM）将扩大212个基点。但随着AI相关的GPU折旧成本、研发投入和营销费用增加，利润增长与收入增长之间的差距可能会在未来逐渐收窄。</p></li></ul></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛：腾讯估值不算苛刻，仍是中国最具确定性的AI应用受益股</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757067\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"SG9999015952.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (SGD) ACC","LU0348784397.USD":"ALLIANZ ORIENTAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0164865239.USD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","LU0348814723.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC  NC","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2152927971.USD":"NORDEA 1 ASIAN STARS EQUITY \"BP\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015978.USD":"利安颠覆性创新基金A","LU0823038988.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS ASIA EQUITY FOCUS  \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU2462611646.USD":"AMUNDI FUNDS REAL ASSETS TARGET INCOME \"A2\" (USD) INC MTI","LU0979878070.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","SG9999015986.USD":"LIONGLOBAL DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1807302812.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV ALL CHINA \"P\" (USD) 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(USD) ACC","SG9999001051.SGD":"United Asia Fund SGD","SG9999001069.SGD":"UOB UNITED ASIA PACIFIC GROWTH (SGD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757067","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2575424827","content_text":"高盛认为，AI能够赋能腾讯的几乎所有业务线，包括游戏、广告、金融科技、云服务和电子商务。当前腾讯2026年市盈率19倍（剔除投资为16倍），估值低于Meta、谷歌。高盛上调腾讯资本开支预测至3500亿元人民币，并看好混元大模型在LMarena登顶、云业务领域的加速增长。高盛在一份最新研究报告中重申了对腾讯控股的“买入”评级，并上调其目标价，认为尽管该公司股价今年以来大幅上涨，但其估值与全球同行相比并不苛刻。腾讯依然是中国市场最具确定性的人工智能应用受益者。据追风交易台消息，在12日发布的报告中，高盛分析师Ronald Keung等人将腾讯的12个月目标价从701港元上调至770港元。今年迄今，腾讯股价上涨51%，跑赢同期恒生科技指数44%的涨幅。高盛认为，尽管投资者对地缘政治风险的担忧再起，但腾讯的基本面依然强劲。其估值水平、在多个人工智能应用领域的变现潜力以及稳定的股东回报政策，共同构成了其核心投资逻辑。该行预计，市场对腾讯即将于11月13日公布的第三季度业绩，将重点关注其AI应用与资本开支前景、基础及多模态大模型能力，以及游戏和广告等核心业务的增长可见性。预计腾讯Q3营收同比增长13%，每股收益同比增长18%，后者的增速将持续达到营收增速的1.5倍。这主要得益于广告、游戏和消费金融等高利润业务的驱动，以及公司整体的经营杠杆效应。估值仍有空间，低于全球同行尽管股价已经历一轮重估，但高盛认为腾讯的估值仍不算苛刻。报告指出，腾讯当前估值对应2026年预期非国际财务报告准则（non-IFRS）市盈率为19倍，若剔除其投资组合，则为16倍。从国际比较来看，其基于国际财务报告准则（IFRS）的市盈率为22倍，低于Meta（24倍）和谷歌（23倍）等全球科技巨头。高盛在报告中给出了腾讯股价在基本、牛市和熊市三种情景下的估值，分别为770港元、846港元和541港元，认为其风险回报状况偏向积极。分析师认为，腾讯旗下资产的商业化程度相对不足，而AI将为各业务线带来多个新的变现驱动力，这为其未来增长留下了空间。截至发稿，腾讯股价为635港元/股。AI全面赋能，混元大模型取得突破高盛将腾讯视为“中国互联网行业中，定位最佳的AI应用核心标的之一”，其核心逻辑在于AI能够赋能腾讯的几乎所有业务线，包括游戏、广告、金融科技、云服务和电子商务，并通过其独特的微信生态系统和全球游戏资产实现落地。报告特别强调了腾讯在AI领域的最新突破。其自研的混元图像大模型Hunyuan Image 3.0，近期在权威的文本到图像模型排行榜LMarena上排名第一，表现优于包括OpenAI旗下模型在内的全球领先同行。这是混元大模型首次在全球基准测试中登顶。此外，其AI应用“元宝”App的日活跃用户（DAU）在第三季度实现了12%的环比增长（据QuestMobile数据）。高盛认为，借鉴Kakao与OpenAI合作将其模型整合进KakaoTalk的案例，微信未来在AI搜索和生产力功能之外，有望探索更多AI智能体功能，进一步强化其“超级应用”的生态地位。上调资本开支与云业务预期基于对AI需求的乐观判断，高盛上调了对腾讯的资本开支预测。该行将腾讯2025至2027财年的资本开支总额预测从3000亿元人民币上调至3500亿元人民币，并预计其2025至2027年的年度资本开支将分别达到1000亿、1170亿和1290亿元人民币。高盛认为，未来几年国内芯片供应的增加，将为腾讯的AI推理需求提供支持。资本开支的增加将直接利好云业务。因此，高盛大幅上调了对腾讯云的收入增长预测，预计其在2025、2026和2027年的增速将分别达到11%、25%和20%，远高于此前8%、7%和6%的预测。基于更高的增长预期，高盛也将腾讯云业务的估值从每股38港元提升至每股48港元。游戏广告增长稳健，利润率持续扩张对于传统核心业务，高盛同样维持乐观预期。游戏业务： 预计2025年第三季度和全年的游戏收入将分别同比增长16%和18%。增长动力来自《三角洲行动》等新游戏的强劲表现，以及《王者荣耀》等常青游戏的稳健运营。此外，《流放之路2》等重磅游戏储备也为未来增长提供了清晰的路线图。广告业务： 预计2025年第三季度和全年营销服务收入增速均为19%。AI驱动的广告技术升级提升了点击转化率，同时视频号广告加载率的提升和微信搜索广告等新库存的释放，将持续推动广告收入增长。利润率： 高盛预计，腾讯的利润率将继续扩张，2025年第三季度的经营利润率（OPM）将扩大212个基点。但随着AI相关的GPU折旧成本、研发投入和营销费用增加，利润增长与收入增长之间的差距可能会在未来逐渐收窄。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1332,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":483978761322552,"gmtCreate":1759188070299,"gmtModify":1759188072707,"author":{"id":"4133398059071332","authorId":"4133398059071332","name":"虎骨高","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36ec2c2d2405aed43a19933c5c6010ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4133398059071332","idStr":"4133398059071332"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还吹呢，全是话术，骗子🤥","listText":"还吹呢，全是话术，骗子🤥","text":"还吹呢，全是话术，骗子🤥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/483978761322552","repostId":"2570828687","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2570828687","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1759066386,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2570828687?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-28 21:33","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"从追赶到定义：小米17系列的“改变”背后","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2570828687","media":"澎湃新闻","summary":"小米17系列的产品设计哲学发生了根本性转变。小米17 Pro系列的影像系统命名为“徕卡光影大师”，首发光影猎人950L传感器，结合LOFIC高动态技术，动态范围高达16.5EV，大幅改善逆光场景下的画质纯净度，被官方称为“移动影像逆光之王”。小米17系列最大的改变，或许不在于其本身，而在于它作为“生态中心”的连接能力。此外，小米平板8系列的发布进一步丰富了场景化体验。","content":"<div>\n<p>澎湃新闻记者 宋一聪在9月25日的小米17系列发布会上，小米公司正式揭晓了其年度旗舰——小米17系列，包括小米17、小米17 Pro以及顶配机型小米17 Pro Max。而这场发布会的前奏，是雷军第六次年度演讲，主题仅有两个字：“改变”。这次的演讲海报也有点特别——雷军以正装形象坐在办公椅上，似乎是在沉思和回忆。在长达一小时的演讲中，雷军并未过多纠缠于具体参数，而是回顾了小米创业十五年来的关键抉择...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250928230948a44a5bb4&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从追赶到定义：小米17系列的“改变”背后\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-09-28 21:33 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250928230948a44a5bb4&s=b><strong>澎湃新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>澎湃新闻记者 宋一聪在9月25日的小米17系列发布会上，小米公司正式揭晓了其年度旗舰——小米17系列，包括小米17、小米17 Pro以及顶配机型小米17 Pro Max。而这场发布会的前奏，是雷军第六次年度演讲，主题仅有两个字：“改变”。这次的演讲海报也有点特别——雷军以正装形象坐在办公椅上，似乎是在沉思和回忆。在长达一小时的演讲中，雷军并未过多纠缠于具体参数，而是回顾了小米创业十五年来的关键抉择...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250928230948a44a5bb4&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"81810":"小米集团-WR","LU0594300179.USD":"FIDELITY CHINA CONSUMER \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1615":"港股-互联网","LU0149721374.USD":"HSBC GIF HONG KONG EQUITY \"AD\" INC","LU2476274308.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES \"AT\" (USD) ACC","LU0348825331.USD":"ALLIANZ CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2097828557.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1607":"新IT概念","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0531971595.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 SGD","LU0871576103.HKD":"HSBC GIF CHINESE EQUITY \"AC\" 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Max。而这场发布会的前奏，是雷军第六次年度演讲，主题仅有两个字：“改变”。这次的演讲海报也有点特别——雷军以正装形象坐在办公椅上，似乎是在沉思和回忆。在长达一小时的演讲中，雷军并未过多纠缠于具体参数，而是回顾了小米创业十五年来的关键抉择，并着重分享了小米玄戒芯片的攻坚历程与小米汽车背后的战略思考。“造车和重启造芯，几乎是同时做的决策，把小米十年攒下的家底全押上了。”雷军在微博上感慨：“说实话，‘同时供家里两个孩子上大学’，压力巨大。”面对巨大的不确定性和挑战，小米还是决定供起这两个“孩子”。因为，“失败本身并不可怕，正视内心的恐惧，才是关键。”在全球科技竞争格局深度重构的今天，小米的这场“改变”，究竟意味着什么？答案或许正藏在产品细节与战略布局的深处，为我们观察中国科技产业的跃迁提供了一个清晰窗口。产品之变：从参数领先到定义标准的“硬核革新”小米17系列的发布，在许多人看来似乎是一场技术实力的集中展示，但这一次，小米展现出了另一种自信——从追逐行业标准，转向自我定义标准。小米17系列的产品设计哲学发生了根本性转变。其标准版坚持“最强小尺寸全能旗舰”定位，在8.06毫米厚度内塞入7000mAh金沙江电池，具备超高能量密度与优异低温表现，循环寿命长达五年，配合100W有线与50W无线澎湃秒充，精准解决了一般手机用户“电量焦虑”的痛点。小米17标准版搭载高通第五代骁龙8至尊版移动平台。该芯片采用第三代3nm制程工艺，CPU主频高达4.6GHz。GPU方面，引入了独立图形缓存设计，容量提升50%，功耗降低30%。配合立体环形冷泵散热系统，其导热效率达到传统VC均热板的三倍，在重载游戏和高温环境下仍能保持稳定性能输出。小米17 Pro系列的影像系统命名为“徕卡光影大师”，首发光影猎人950L传感器，结合LOFIC高动态技术，动态范围高达16.5EV，大幅改善逆光场景下的画质纯净度，被官方称为“移动影像逆光之王”。长焦镜头升级为5倍大底潜望式结构，进光量提升30%，远摄细节更丰富。发布会展示的样张中，极其复杂的光线环境下依然能保留丰富的细节与自然的影调，这背后是芯片、传感器、光学镜片与算法的系统性融合。小米正在告别以往安卓阵营一度盛行的“传感器尺寸军备竞赛”，转向一个技术门槛更高、体验更趋极致的全链路创新模式。而Pro系列搭载的“妙享背屏”更是一次突破性的智能手机交互创新——它不再是参数的简单堆砌，而是基于用户真实需求的功能创造。这块围绕在摄像头旁边的屏幕，并非简单复刻功能机时代的副屏，而是一块具备高刷新率、低功耗的智能交互窗口。这块背屏可用于显示时钟、AI生成头像或宠物形象，也可推送出行提醒、音乐播放信息等通知内容，以及一些趣味功能包括大头贴模式与“便利贴”快捷记录，用户可将重要事项一键固定于背部屏幕。更重要的是，该背屏还支持后置主摄自拍预览，他人协助拍摄时可实时查看构图效果。这块背屏的巧妙之处在于，它既解决了后置摄像头自拍的预览难题，又创造了全新的信息交互方式。当其他厂商仍在屏幕刷新率和亮度上进行军备竞赛时，小米已经开辟了手机形态创新的第二战场。发布会后，在各大社交媒体平台“刷屏”的还有这块副屏的另一种用法：配合专用的复古掌机形态保护壳，可以用这块副屏来玩各种怀旧老游戏，在发布会现场演示的《愤怒的小鸟》，瞬间勾起了无数人的回忆。在主流厂商都将手机正面屏幕追求到极致，设计渐趋同质化的当下，小米通过在机身背面开辟“第二战场”，极大地提升了单手握持下的操作效率。这一设计是否有可能像当年的全面屏一样，引发行业跟风，成为未来旗舰机型的标配之一？对行业而言，这正是“定义者”角色的体现。小米17系列最大的改变，或许不在于其本身，而在于它作为“生态中心”的连接能力。发布会上，小米17与小米汽车SU7的互动演示引发了阵阵掌声：手机轻触车门实现无感解锁，上车后导航、音乐会话无缝流转至车机，甚至能调用车辆摄像头作为行车记录仪的补充视角。与此同时，与家中空调、灯光、电视等数百款小米生态链设备的协同也更加智能无感。全系标配的UWB超宽带技术使手机与小米汽车之间建立了空间感知能力，实现了靠近自动解锁、离车自动落锁的无缝体验。此外，小米平板8系列的发布进一步丰富了场景化体验。澎湃OS 3系统带来的PC级分屏操作与浏览器体验，焦点触控笔Pro的1ms超低延迟，这些都不再是孤立的功能点，而是构成了完整的生产力解决方案。小米Sound 2 Max音箱的CD级无损音质传输、米家三区洗衣机Pro的分区洗涤技术、路由器BE10000 Pro的全屋智能中枢能力，这些产品共同绘制出一幅全景智能生活图景。小米早已是智能家庭生态的领跑者，而小米汽车的成功加入，彻底打通了“人-车-家”三大核心场景的壁垒。小米率先将竞争维度从“单机”的硬件性能，拉升到了“全生态”的体验完整性。这意味着，下一代智能终端将不再是信息孤岛，而是以一个整体，无缝融入并主动服务于用户的智慧生活。也不难看出，小米的产品创新逻辑已从“我们有什么技术就堆什么料”，转变为“用户需要什么场景我们就创造什么解决方案”。行业之变：小米效应与中国科技产业的“格局革新”若我们回顾中国科技产业的发展历史，小米的出现无疑是无法绕过的一个里程碑。小米曾经几乎以一己之力，以高性价比、有设计感和品质感的产品带动了整个智能产品生态的发展，从而重塑了“中国制造”产品在消费者心目中的印象。回望十五年前，中国消费电子市场仍是国际品牌的天下，国产品牌常与“低端”、“山寨”等标签挂钩。小米的横空出世，以“互联网手机”模式，用接近成本价的定价和出色的设计感，几乎以一己之力普及了智能手机，并带动了整个产业链的升级。2011年，初代小米手机的发布如同一声惊雷，迫使整个行业重新思考手机的定价策略，开启了智能手机的普及浪潮，让更多消费者以更低成本享受到科技乐趣。雷军首创了“互联网手机”模式：高配置+低价格+线上销售。这款售价1999元的手机，提供了当时需要三四千元才能买到的性能，通过官网直接销售，砍掉了中间渠道成本。而“上市即爆款”的小米的规模效应带动了上游供应链（如显示屏、电池、芯片等）的发展，为中国手机供应链的成熟和壮大提供了重要订单和支持。小米还为中国科技行业带来了另一种从未有过的运营模式：社区运营。通过MIUI社区运营，小米在上市前就积累了庞大的核心用户群，这种用户参与感的互联网思维，为后续的生态链模式奠定了基础。为什么后来的小米生态链能够成功，而别的品牌却很难复制这种模式？高用户参与度是一个关键。从行业角度来看，小米生态链及其系列产品的成功，是比单一产品更具战略意义的创新。小米通过“投资+孵化”的模式，培育了一大批专注于智能硬件的公司（如华米、紫米、智米等）。小米为其提供资金、供应链、渠道和品牌背书，让它们能快速推出高质量产品。生态链产品如小米移动电源、空气净化器、扫地机器人等，以简约设计、可靠品质和合理价格，彻底改变了全球消费者对“中国制造”低价劣质的刻板印象，树立了“优质优价”的新国货形象。更重要的是，小米率先搭建起全球最大的消费级IoT平台，通过手机APP控制各类家电产品的体验，让“万物互联”从概念走向普通家庭，引领了全球科技巨头进军智能家居的潮流。此后，小米生态链模式孵化出上百家智能硬件公司，将这种对品质和设计的追求复制到充电宝、手环、空气净化器等各个领域，彻底颠覆了全球消费者对“中国制造”的刻板印象。创业十五年的小米，其发展轨迹与国产智能科技的逆袭之路高度重合，当之无愧地成为中国创新实力的新名片。小米向世界证明，中国公司不仅能制造出高质量、有设计感的产品，还能创造出极具效率的商业新模式。而正如文章刚开始，雷军所说，在科技产品领域，小米最想挑战的两个领域，就是芯片和造车。2017年，小米推出首款手机SoC芯片澎湃S1，搭载于小米5C。这是一次勇敢的尝试，证明了小米进入核心研发领域的决心。虽然其在性能和功耗上与当时的主流芯片存在差距，但为小米积累了宝贵的经验、技术和人才。在意识到直接研发大型SoC的极高难度和风险后，小米调整了策略，转向“由易到难、由外到内”的路径，即先从周边专用芯片入手，逐步积累技术，再向核心芯片迈进。这一时期，小米陆续推出了澎湃C1（影像芯片）、澎湃P1（充电芯片）等，在特定领域取得了成功。2025年6月26日晚间，小米方面召开了以“新起点”为题的发布会。在这次发布会上，名为玄戒O1的芯片成为了主角之一。作为国内手机厂商到目前为止的唯一一款3nm制程芯片，它搭载于小米15SPro、小米平板7Ultra上，已经实现大规模量产，是一款标准的高性能的先进芯片。而小米造车，曾经更是一个让科技业、汽车业都听起来类似天方夜谭的“妄言”。即使强如苹果，也在精心准备许久之后决定放弃造车计划，小米又有什么资本来进入汽车这个重资产、高投入、高技术门槛的行业？但如今大家也看到了小米汽车诞生之后所取得的一系列骄人的成绩。作为小米成立以来最重大、最复杂的战略决策，其成果小米SU7的发布，震惊了整个行业。小米SU7凭借出色的外观设计和精良的内饰工艺，一举打破了人们对“科技公司造车不懂设计”的偏见。小米SU7发布后，订单量迅速突破10万大关，创造了汽车行业的纪录，证明了市场对其产品力和品牌力的高度认可。即使在二手车市场，小米Su7和Yu7也一度是一车难求。小米汽车项目在3年内从零走到量产上市，展现了小米恐怖的战略执行力、资源整合能力和工程实现能力。从行业生态上看，汽车是智能手机之后最重要的智能终端。小米通过造车，终于将其“人车家全生态”的战略蓝图补上了最关键的一块拼图，形成了一个完整的、内循环的生态系统。小米的持续创新，如同一条凶猛的“鲇鱼”，不断刺激着整个行业的神经。从早期的性价比策略，到后来冲击高端的核心技术投入，小米迫使竞争对手无法安于现状，必须同样加快技术迭代、提升产品力。这种良性竞争，共同将中国智能手机市场的“蛋糕”做得更大、品质更好，推动行业从早年间低水平的价格内卷，转向如今高水平的价值竞争。改变的下一站，是与世界巨头同维竞技而在全球化方面，小米同样带来了“改变”。早期中国产品出海，大多依赖低价策略。而小米则凭借“技术+生态”的组合拳，在欧洲、东南亚、拉美等市场成功树立了高端、时尚、科技感的品牌形象。小米之家在巴黎、柏林等地的旗舰店成为当地科技地标，小米手机、滑板车、智能家居产品组成的生态体系，让全球消费者体验到一种来自中国的、前瞻性的生活方式。这种模式，改变的不仅是市场占有率，更是中国科技品牌的价值内涵，成为一种文化软实力的有效输出。回到这次所发布的主角——小米17系列上，这是小米长期坚持技术创新与战略变革的集中成果展示。它的意义，远超一款旗舰手机本身。从追赶到定义，小米的“改变”，是中国科技产业从自信、自强到走向自主的生动体现。小米的改变，正是中国科技企业改变的缩影——它清楚地向世界展示了一个事实：中国科技企业已经具备了在芯片、操作系统、终端产品、生态服务等多个核心层面进行全栈式创新的能力。下一个十年，小米们将不再满足于在既有赛道跟随，而是有志于、也有能力去开辟新赛道，与全球顶尖科技巨头在同一个维度上，定义未来智能生活的图景。当下，我们见证的不仅是一款产品的诞生，更是一个新时代的开启。在下一个十年，来自中国的科技企业，将与全球顶尖科技巨头在同一个维度上竞争。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"81810":0.6,"XIACF":0.9,"HXXD.SI":0.6,"01810":1.5,"MIUmain":0.6,"XIACY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":469,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}