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响亮的厂

响亮的厂

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05-08

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 至少再跌50%

11-11 00:24

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

FCN投资课：Lesson 2.解锁FCN的投资潜力

08-14

几个月后，ARM将带来为gpu做AI加速的 IP core，如果技术路线不可替代，这意味着，每个GPU的营业额中，都会给ARM分一部分，业绩估值一定会有不错的表现

10-17

还是不敢空美股，虽说美国科技股市盈率高，但比赚钱能力，怎么也比大A科技股市盈率低，

2024-06-27

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 看到160

10-31

Great article, would you like to share it?

@小虎老师:💰“拆”声一响，黄金万两？Netflix、ServiceNow公告拆股，“捡钱”还是“接盘”？

10-30

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 我可以投票吗

抱歉，原内容已删除

10-21

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@港股挖掘机:瑞银深度：美国倒逼中国芯片国产化，实现长期技术自主可控

10-20

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

10-17

还是不敢空美股，突然有什么创新利好又是拉爆的节奏

10-16

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

10-10

经济学说，资本家赚的钱实质上赚的就是人的剩余劳动力，AI不像互联网，互联网只是提高效率的工具，而AI就是劳动力，仔细想想吧，目前的估值不应该是泡沫，而是科技替代人类劳动力价值的基础建设。

09-04

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 为了支持啊拉的业绩，今天入手一台Model Y L.的确遥遥领先

09-03

我觉得是你不赏我你会亏大了

08-22

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@投阅笔记:重新审视投资组合风险：颠覆时代下的新思考

06-10

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

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FCN的风险和收益</strong></p><p></p><p>一：FCN的收益受什么因素影响</p><p>二：FCN的风险</p><p>三：FCN的收益计算示例&amp;实例</p><p></p><p><strong>Lesson 4.FCN实操交易-手把手教你如何买卖</strong></p><p></p><p>一：FCN的产品界面怎么看</p><p>二：如何询价？</p><p></p><p><strong>【声明】</strong></p><p>结构化票据可能涉及金融衍生工具，具有特定的产品风险。投资者应仔细审阅产品资料和条款细则，知悉产品详情及风险披露。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。</p>","url":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e85bb1c8b27fbde117c46abea08418b2","link":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNCollege&page=%2Fcollege%2Fcourse&rndata=%7B%22gid%22%3A%22C20231011073518216%22%7D","material":{"gid":"20231102030827297","title":"Lesson 2.解锁FCN的投资潜力","url":"","desc":"","duration":"","content_type":2,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9ba683985e1ecda4a78382eaab88669","source_type":2,"extra":"{\"relate_type\": 0, \"post_id\": 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share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/495174837739720","repostId":"495165708275960","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":495165708275960,"gmtCreate":1761898083766,"gmtModify":1761900018758,"author":{"id":"36989258284800","authorId":"36989258284800","name":"小虎老师","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/6e9d88ae16a2b401169a727cf1457404","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36989258284800","idStr":"36989258284800"},"themes":[],"title":"💰“拆”声一响，黄金万两？Netflix、ServiceNow公告拆股，“捡钱”还是“接盘”？","htmlText":"一、拆股=撒钱？Netflix，Servicesnow该关注什么？本周 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a> &amp; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> 相继宣布拆股，引得市场关注。具体公告信息及计划如下：公司比例公告日关键时间节点状态<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a>1拆52025-10-29特别股东大会 2025-12-05（批准日）待股东批准<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a>1拆102025-10-30登记日 11-10、配股 11-14、生效 11-17已获董事会最终授权，生效倒计时交易提示： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a> : 若12-5通过，预计12-12盘后配股、12-15生效；公告→批准窗口仅37天，短线资金已提前潜伏，注意回调风险。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> : 拆后流动性提升，期权链将重新挂牌；历史回测大盘股拆后5日平均+1.8%，但当日高开低走概率54%，宜等首15分钟缺口回补再低吸。小虎老师提示：拆股=“基本面自信”的信号弹，要all in？！把“拆股”翻译成散户语言就是：公司把1张100元换成10张10元，钱包里的钱一分没少，但“张数”瞬间爆棚，单价瞬间亲民。心理门槛砍半：假设单价从800→80，散户下单不手抖，成交量立刻放大。期权流动性爆表：低价股更容易做Cover Call、Cash-Secured Pu","listText":"一、拆股=撒钱？Netflix，Servicesnow该关注什么？本周 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a> &amp; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> 相继宣布拆股，引得市场关注。具体公告信息及计划如下：公司比例公告日关键时间节点状态<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a>1拆52025-10-29特别股东大会 2025-12-05（批准日）待股东批准<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a>1拆102025-10-30登记日 11-10、配股 11-14、生效 11-17已获董事会最终授权，生效倒计时交易提示： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a> : 若12-5通过，预计12-12盘后配股、12-15生效；公告→批准窗口仅37天，短线资金已提前潜伏，注意回调风险。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> : 拆后流动性提升，期权链将重新挂牌；历史回测大盘股拆后5日平均+1.8%，但当日高开低走概率54%，宜等首15分钟缺口回补再低吸。小虎老师提示：拆股=“基本面自信”的信号弹，要all in？！把“拆股”翻译成散户语言就是：公司把1张100元换成10张10元，钱包里的钱一分没少，但“张数”瞬间爆棚，单价瞬间亲民。心理门槛砍半：假设单价从800→80，散户下单不手抖，成交量立刻放大。期权流动性爆表：低价股更容易做Cover Call、Cash-Secured Pu","text":"一、拆股=撒钱？Netflix，Servicesnow该关注什么？本周 $ServiceNow(NOW)$ & $奈飞(NFLX)$ 相继宣布拆股，引得市场关注。具体公告信息及计划如下：公司比例公告日关键时间节点状态$ServiceNow(NOW)$1拆52025-10-29特别股东大会 2025-12-05（批准日）待股东批准$奈飞(NFLX)$1拆102025-10-30登记日 11-10、配股 11-14、生效 11-17已获董事会最终授权，生效倒计时交易提示： $ServiceNow(NOW)$ : 若12-5通过，预计12-12盘后配股、12-15生效；公告→批准窗口仅37天，短线资金已提前潜伏，注意回调风险。 $奈飞(NFLX)$ : 拆后流动性提升，期权链将重新挂牌；历史回测大盘股拆后5日平均+1.8%，但当日高开低走概率54%，宜等首15分钟缺口回补再低吸。小虎老师提示：拆股=“基本面自信”的信号弹，要all in？！把“拆股”翻译成散户语言就是：公司把1张100元换成10张10元，钱包里的钱一分没少，但“张数”瞬间爆棚，单价瞬间亲民。心理门槛砍半：假设单价从800→80，散户下单不手抖，成交量立刻放大。期权流动性爆表：低价股更容易做Cover Call、Cash-Secured Pu","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b66989207da9ba8e0e8ee381e37930b"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/495165708275960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":494769877610624,"gmtCreate":1761824393504,"gmtModify":1761824395506,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4142077799324650","idStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 我可以投票吗","listText":"<a 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core，如果技术路线不可替代，这意味着，每个GPU的营业额中，都会给ARM分一部分，业绩估值一定会有不错的表现","text":"几个月后，ARM将带来为gpu做AI加速的 IP core，如果技术路线不可替代，这意味着，每个GPU的营业额中，都会给ARM分一部分，业绩估值一定会有不错的表现","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/467577397678256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2085,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3501506464598626","authorId":"3501506464598626","name":"AsyncMan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433f1f4149b891d553398e44d4243c4c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3501506464598626","authorIdStr":"3501506464598626"},"content":"如果他做成了，就会让 NVDA 崩盘，NVDA 崩盘美股机会崩盘，那么 ARM 一样没有好结果。所以 ARM 横竖都不成","text":"如果他做成了，就会让 NVDA 崩盘，NVDA 崩盘美股机会崩盘，那么 ARM 一样没有好结果。所以 ARM 横竖都不成","html":"如果他做成了，就会让 NVDA 崩盘，NVDA 崩盘美股机会崩盘，那么 ARM 一样没有好结果。所以 ARM 横竖都不成"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":489995892858912,"gmtCreate":1760655473062,"gmtModify":1760655475941,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还是不敢空美股，虽说美国科技股市盈率高，但比赚钱能力，怎么也比大A科技股市盈率低，","listText":"还是不敢空美股，虽说美国科技股市盈率高，但比赚钱能力，怎么也比大A科技股市盈率低，","text":"还是不敢空美股，虽说美国科技股市盈率高，但比赚钱能力，怎么也比大A科技股市盈率低，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/489995892858912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321388991062128,"gmtCreate":1719502883440,"gmtModify":1719507993382,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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share it?","text":"Great article, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/495174837739720","repostId":"495165708275960","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":495165708275960,"gmtCreate":1761898083766,"gmtModify":1761900018758,"author":{"id":"36989258284800","authorId":"36989258284800","name":"小虎老师","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/6e9d88ae16a2b401169a727cf1457404","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36989258284800","authorIdStr":"36989258284800"},"themes":[],"title":"💰“拆”声一响，黄金万两？Netflix、ServiceNow公告拆股，“捡钱”还是“接盘”？","htmlText":"一、拆股=撒钱？Netflix，Servicesnow该关注什么？本周 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a> &amp; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> 相继宣布拆股，引得市场关注。具体公告信息及计划如下：公司比例公告日关键时间节点状态<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a>1拆52025-10-29特别股东大会 2025-12-05（批准日）待股东批准<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a>1拆102025-10-30登记日 11-10、配股 11-14、生效 11-17已获董事会最终授权，生效倒计时交易提示： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a> : 若12-5通过，预计12-12盘后配股、12-15生效；公告→批准窗口仅37天，短线资金已提前潜伏，注意回调风险。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> : 拆后流动性提升，期权链将重新挂牌；历史回测大盘股拆后5日平均+1.8%，但当日高开低走概率54%，宜等首15分钟缺口回补再低吸。小虎老师提示：拆股=“基本面自信”的信号弹，要all in？！把“拆股”翻译成散户语言就是：公司把1张100元换成10张10元，钱包里的钱一分没少，但“张数”瞬间爆棚，单价瞬间亲民。心理门槛砍半：假设单价从800→80，散户下单不手抖，成交量立刻放大。期权流动性爆表：低价股更容易做Cover Call、Cash-Secured Pu","listText":"一、拆股=撒钱？Netflix，Servicesnow该关注什么？本周 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a> &amp; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> 相继宣布拆股，引得市场关注。具体公告信息及计划如下：公司比例公告日关键时间节点状态<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a>1拆52025-10-29特别股东大会 2025-12-05（批准日）待股东批准<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a>1拆102025-10-30登记日 11-10、配股 11-14、生效 11-17已获董事会最终授权，生效倒计时交易提示： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a> : 若12-5通过，预计12-12盘后配股、12-15生效；公告→批准窗口仅37天，短线资金已提前潜伏，注意回调风险。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> : 拆后流动性提升，期权链将重新挂牌；历史回测大盘股拆后5日平均+1.8%，但当日高开低走概率54%，宜等首15分钟缺口回补再低吸。小虎老师提示：拆股=“基本面自信”的信号弹，要all in？！把“拆股”翻译成散户语言就是：公司把1张100元换成10张10元，钱包里的钱一分没少，但“张数”瞬间爆棚，单价瞬间亲民。心理门槛砍半：假设单价从800→80，散户下单不手抖，成交量立刻放大。期权流动性爆表：低价股更容易做Cover Call、Cash-Secured Pu","text":"一、拆股=撒钱？Netflix，Servicesnow该关注什么？本周 $ServiceNow(NOW)$ & $奈飞(NFLX)$ 相继宣布拆股，引得市场关注。具体公告信息及计划如下：公司比例公告日关键时间节点状态$ServiceNow(NOW)$1拆52025-10-29特别股东大会 2025-12-05（批准日）待股东批准$奈飞(NFLX)$1拆102025-10-30登记日 11-10、配股 11-14、生效 11-17已获董事会最终授权，生效倒计时交易提示： $ServiceNow(NOW)$ : 若12-5通过，预计12-12盘后配股、12-15生效；公告→批准窗口仅37天，短线资金已提前潜伏，注意回调风险。 $奈飞(NFLX)$ : 拆后流动性提升，期权链将重新挂牌；历史回测大盘股拆后5日平均+1.8%，但当日高开低走概率54%，宜等首15分钟缺口回补再低吸。小虎老师提示：拆股=“基本面自信”的信号弹，要all in？！把“拆股”翻译成散户语言就是：公司把1张100元换成10张10元，钱包里的钱一分没少，但“张数”瞬间爆棚，单价瞬间亲民。心理门槛砍半：假设单价从800→80，散户下单不手抖，成交量立刻放大。期权流动性爆表：低价股更容易做Cover Call、Cash-Secured Pu","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b66989207da9ba8e0e8ee381e37930b"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/495165708275960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":142,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":494769877610624,"gmtCreate":1761824393504,"gmtModify":1761824395506,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 我可以投票吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 我可以投票吗","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 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瑞银在近期发布的一篇深度研究报告中称，随着美国出口管制收紧，中国芯片国产化对于构建具备韧性的人工智能生态系统而言显得至关重要。 目前**、阿里巴巴等企业正积极研发国产芯片及配套软件，以降低对海外设备的依赖。在政府资本开支的支持下，中芯国际等晶圆代工厂正逐步克服发展挑战。瑞银报告认为，芯片国产化不仅能保障AI产业发展的连续性、增强供应链韧性，更有助于中国实现长期技术自主可控。 报告提及的重点投资标的包括寒武纪、海光信息、中芯国际等热门公司。 Part.01 芯片国产化：中国AI生态的战略基石 在美国持续收紧先进半导体出口管制的背景下，芯片国产化已成为中国强化 AI 生态系统的战略要务。当前，受美国《人工智能扩散规则》限制，中国获取英伟达H20等高性能芯片的渠道日益受限，且特朗普政府可能出台新的管制措施，在此背景下，中国科技企业正加速研发国产替代方案。 **、阿里巴巴、深度求索等企业均在加大对自主AI芯片的投入，并通过优化软件降低对海外硬件的依赖。尽管中芯国际等本土晶圆代工厂因美国对极紫外光刻及其他先进设备的管制，面临良率及工装挑战，但通过协同创新及政府支持的资本开支计划，国内半导体生态正逐步完善。 瑞银认为，这一国产化进程不仅能保障 AI 模型训练与推理的连续性，更将增强国家安全及供应链韧性。 Part.02 美国管制倒逼中国技术突破 为应对美国出口管制，中国半导体产业发展速度已显著加快，而AI创新正助力缩小技术差距。深度求索发布的V3.1模型凸显了中国本土AI生态的实力 —— 这一生态的发展得益于创新设计与合作联盟的推动。 阿里巴巴、**等头部科技企业已推出针对 AI 应用优化的新型芯片，挑战全球行业龙头；寒武纪、海光信息等本土芯片制造商也在快速扩大产能，以满足强劲的国内需求。 尽管外部压力持续，但随着中国超大规模科技企业将更多自研芯片整","listText":"外资大行研报密集覆盖中国科技公司。 瑞银在近期发布的一篇深度研究报告中称，随着美国出口管制收紧，中国芯片国产化对于构建具备韧性的人工智能生态系统而言显得至关重要。 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ARK认为标准差和贝塔系数等传统风险指标，已无法反映当今投资者面临的真正威胁——即技术过时、固步自封以及难以适应技术变革。 在这篇文章中，副投资组合经理Dan White挑战了传统的风险框架，并提出了更具挑战性的问题： 福特真的比特斯拉更安全吗？ 英特尔的风险真的比英伟达更低吗？ 传统银行能否在去中心化金融的冲击下生存下来？ 如果你只是根据已经发生的事情来衡量风险，你可能会错过价值正在被创造和破坏的地方。 接下来就看下文章的全文： 若询问大多数投资者如何定义风险，他们会指出一个数字——标准差，这一基于历史数据的统计指标衡量的是股票价格在指定时期内相对于其均值的波动幅度。在我们看来，这一数字忽视了风险故事中一个关键要素：持有可能正变得无关紧要的企业的股票。 事实上，资产配置者应警惕将波动性与风险混为一谈，不仅因为在重大颠覆时期波动性会上升，还因为标准差是基于较短时间段计算的，这可能与长期财富积累的目标不相容。换言之，过去价格稳定的确定性并不能保证安全，而我们认为，与颠覆相关的波动性并不等同于脆弱性。 事实上，一定程度上，股票价格的波动可能反映出颠覆性潜力，因为市场正在试图预测一家公司的未来价值。不过，市场已日益聚焦于短期。因此，标准差（作为一个回顾性统计指标）无法捕捉到决定一家公司能否挺过下一波创新浪潮的长期生存威胁。价格平稳下跌的资产可能具有风险，尽管其标准差较低。以福特与特斯拉为例：前者在统计上看似“更安全”（至少从回顾角度而言），但它在未来商业周期中是否可能被颠覆？读者清楚ARK的立场！ 在当前环境下，我们认为真正的风险并非体现在价格图表中，而是体现在公司的商业模式中。从这个角度来看，那些标准差使其在纸面上看起来“稳定”的公司可能在结构上脆弱：它们依赖于过时的系统、落后的分销技术或不再相关的监管壁垒。与此同时，那些账面","listText":"如果投资组合中“最安全”的资产反而是风险最高的呢？ ARK认为标准差和贝塔系数等传统风险指标，已无法反映当今投资者面临的真正威胁——即技术过时、固步自封以及难以适应技术变革。 在这篇文章中，副投资组合经理Dan White挑战了传统的风险框架，并提出了更具挑战性的问题： 福特真的比特斯拉更安全吗？ 英特尔的风险真的比英伟达更低吗？ 传统银行能否在去中心化金融的冲击下生存下来？ 如果你只是根据已经发生的事情来衡量风险，你可能会错过价值正在被创造和破坏的地方。 接下来就看下文章的全文： 若询问大多数投资者如何定义风险，他们会指出一个数字——标准差，这一基于历史数据的统计指标衡量的是股票价格在指定时期内相对于其均值的波动幅度。在我们看来，这一数字忽视了风险故事中一个关键要素：持有可能正变得无关紧要的企业的股票。 事实上，资产配置者应警惕将波动性与风险混为一谈，不仅因为在重大颠覆时期波动性会上升，还因为标准差是基于较短时间段计算的，这可能与长期财富积累的目标不相容。换言之，过去价格稳定的确定性并不能保证安全，而我们认为，与颠覆相关的波动性并不等同于脆弱性。 事实上，一定程度上，股票价格的波动可能反映出颠覆性潜力，因为市场正在试图预测一家公司的未来价值。不过，市场已日益聚焦于短期。因此，标准差（作为一个回顾性统计指标）无法捕捉到决定一家公司能否挺过下一波创新浪潮的长期生存威胁。价格平稳下跌的资产可能具有风险，尽管其标准差较低。以福特与特斯拉为例：前者在统计上看似“更安全”（至少从回顾角度而言），但它在未来商业周期中是否可能被颠覆？读者清楚ARK的立场！ 在当前环境下，我们认为真正的风险并非体现在价格图表中，而是体现在公司的商业模式中。从这个角度来看，那些标准差使其在纸面上看起来“稳定”的公司可能在结构上脆弱：它们依赖于过时的系统、落后的分销技术或不再相关的监管壁垒。与此同时，那些账面","text":"如果投资组合中“最安全”的资产反而是风险最高的呢？ ARK认为标准差和贝塔系数等传统风险指标，已无法反映当今投资者面临的真正威胁——即技术过时、固步自封以及难以适应技术变革。 在这篇文章中，副投资组合经理Dan White挑战了传统的风险框架，并提出了更具挑战性的问题： 福特真的比特斯拉更安全吗？ 英特尔的风险真的比英伟达更低吗？ 传统银行能否在去中心化金融的冲击下生存下来？ 如果你只是根据已经发生的事情来衡量风险，你可能会错过价值正在被创造和破坏的地方。 接下来就看下文章的全文： 若询问大多数投资者如何定义风险，他们会指出一个数字——标准差，这一基于历史数据的统计指标衡量的是股票价格在指定时期内相对于其均值的波动幅度。在我们看来，这一数字忽视了风险故事中一个关键要素：持有可能正变得无关紧要的企业的股票。 事实上，资产配置者应警惕将波动性与风险混为一谈，不仅因为在重大颠覆时期波动性会上升，还因为标准差是基于较短时间段计算的，这可能与长期财富积累的目标不相容。换言之，过去价格稳定的确定性并不能保证安全，而我们认为，与颠覆相关的波动性并不等同于脆弱性。 事实上，一定程度上，股票价格的波动可能反映出颠覆性潜力，因为市场正在试图预测一家公司的未来价值。不过，市场已日益聚焦于短期。因此，标准差（作为一个回顾性统计指标）无法捕捉到决定一家公司能否挺过下一波创新浪潮的长期生存威胁。价格平稳下跌的资产可能具有风险，尽管其标准差较低。以福特与特斯拉为例：前者在统计上看似“更安全”（至少从回顾角度而言），但它在未来商业周期中是否可能被颠覆？读者清楚ARK的立场！ 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