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响亮的厂

响亮的厂

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2025-05-08

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 至少再跌50%

01-14

你就不知道了，英特尔的爆发力主要是在硅基量子芯片上

2025-11-26

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 大科技太贵了，没有一次像样的调整，风险都不算解除，只不过去回光返照罢了！

2025-08-14

几个月后，ARM将带来为gpu做AI加速的 IP core，如果技术路线不可替代，这意味着，每个GPU的营业额中，都会给ARM分一部分，业绩估值一定会有不错的表现

2025-10-17

还是不敢空美股，虽说美国科技股市盈率高，但比赚钱能力，怎么也比大A科技股市盈率低，

01-28

英特尔牛逼的地方还不仅仅是代工！请你们查查，类脑芯片谁领跑全球

报道：供应链消息称，苹果之后，英伟达下一代GPU也将合作英特尔，以取悦特朗普

2024-06-27

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 看到160

02-10

日本鬼子涨上天都不买！

02-04

华尔街说涨的时候快跑就对了

黄金牛市还在吗？华尔街坚定看多：技术性回调不要怕，中国买家已成黄金市场强劲支柱！

02-04

万恶的资本家！串通大嘴巴变色龙特朗普假造紧张局势，专门发这种假参考吸引中国人高位接盘！自己偷偷跑！！专割中国人羊毛！

黄金牛市还在吗？华尔街坚定看多：技术性回调不要怕，中国买家已成黄金市场强劲支柱！

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11:02","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"黄金牛市还在吗？华尔街坚定看多：技术性回调不要怕，中国买家已成黄金市场强劲支柱！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2608489428","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近期黄金暴跌被华尔街视为“技术性洗盘”，牛市逻辑并未动摇。德银坚定看多至6000美元，强调中国买家正疯狂扫货，1月黄金ETF增持94万盎司，买入强度或达去年三倍；瑞银指4500美元为强力支撑位。巴克莱认为，在法币信用危机与政策动荡下，黄金溢价将长期存在。","content":"<p>2026年开年的黄金市场，演绎了一场极致的“惊魂记”。</p><p>在短短数周内，现货金价从4300美元一路狂飙至5600美元的历史巅峰，随即又如断线风筝般坠落至4500美元下方。这种单日两位数的跌幅，在黄金历史上仅出现过两次——分别是1980年和1983年。</p><p>面对“闪崩”，市场关于黄金泡沫破裂的质疑声此起彼伏。然而，巴克莱、瑞银和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>等华尔街巨头却在巨震中保持了惊人的冷静。</p><p>在他们看来，<strong>这并非牛市的终结，而是一次极致挤压后的“健康清算”。在宏观叙事未变的背景下，黄金正处于通往6000美元目标的“技术性休整”。</strong></p><p><strong>与此同时，一个关键的支撑是，中国买家正在疯狂扫货。</strong>德银报告显示，中国投资者目前的买入黄金ETF强度可能是去年的三倍以上。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5bc68959906d3afb402e317c7797f641\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"417\"></p><h2 id=\"id_4017511843\">大行共识：“极致拥挤”后的技术性回踩</h2><p>黄金之所以在近期出现剧烈调整，在华尔街眼中更多是“技术性”而非“根本性”的。瑞银在最新的报告中直言：</p><blockquote><p><strong>黄金涨势结束了吗？简而言之，我们的答案是否定的。</strong></p></blockquote><p>该行认为，金价从高位回落约21%，主要归结为短期投机头寸的“大清洗”。此前的单边暴涨导致市场仓位过度拥挤，当获利盘涌出时，踩踏效应被成倍放大。瑞银策略师Joni Teves认为：</p><blockquote><p><strong>目前来看，短期盘整是必要的，我们认为从长远来看，此次回调对市场是有益的。</strong>这段时间应该会为投资者提供以更具吸引力的入场点构建长期战略仓位的机会。我们预计支撑位将在附近出现。</p></blockquote><p>巴克莱的分析也印证了这一点。其模型显示，黄金的公允价值目前约在4000美元。尽管目前的溢价依然存在，但回落至4900美元后，溢价已回归至合理标准差内。</p><p>该行强调，在政策动荡和法币信誉受损的背景下，金价长期偏离公允价值并非泡沫，而是市场对风险的一种“前瞻性定价”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b68171dba8572c84be5b28df247ec79\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"488\"></p><h2 id=\"id_1233494495\">别慌，基本面没变</h2><p>尽管价格剧震，但各大行均强调：驱动黄金长牛的底层基本面没有发生太大变化。</p><p>瑞银写道：</p><blockquote><p>从基本面来看，我们认为情况并未发生太大变化。我们预计，包括散户、机构和官方部门在内的各方需求都将全面恢复。这将最终推动黄金恢复上涨趋势，并在未来几个季度创下新高。</p></blockquote><p>而全球宏观环境的动荡依然是黄金的“燃油”。地缘政治、关税政策、持续的财政扩张以及对法币贬值的担忧，正迫使投资者将黄金视为避险的“最后一道防线”。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>“财政主导”下的美元贬值压力：</strong></p></li></ul><p>巴克莱指出，特朗普2.0时代的政策核心是“扩张性财政+关税通胀”。美国政府债务水平高企且无意约束，这种“财政主导（Fiscal Dominance）”的环境直接削弱了美债的避险属性。投资者对法币贬值的长期恐惧（Fiat Debasement）不仅没有消失，反而因政策不确定性而加剧。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>美联储换帅难改“通胀漂移”：</strong></p></li></ul><p>尽管特朗普提名的美联储主席沃什（Kevin Warsh）被视为制度连贯性的象征，但巴克莱认为，政策波动带来的挑战不会很快消失。该行计算，美国CPI每上升1%，金价就有5%的内生上涨动力。在未来一年通胀预期3%背景下，金价仅凭“通胀漂移”就有15%的保底涨幅。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>地缘政治与“战略自主”：</strong></p></li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>指出，当前全球政治与贸易关系正在发生结构性位移。继俄罗斯储备被冻结后，全球央行对“战略自主”的需求达到了前所未有的高度。黄金作为唯一的“非政权信用资产”，其在储备中的地位正从“收益驱动”转向“生存驱动”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/349769a25f90a043adce86eaabe48a71\" tg-width=\"923\" tg-height=\"430\"></p><h2 id=\"id_1911000237\">“神秘力量”现身：中国买家正在疯狂扫货</h2><p>在此次金价博弈中，德意志银行捕捉到了一个至关重要的变量：<strong>中国投资者正在成为全球贵金属市场的“关键支柱”。</strong></p><p>数据显示，仅在2026年1月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600916\">中国黄金</a>ETF的增持量就达到了94万盎司。德银分析师Michael Hsueh指出，<strong>如果按此速度来估算年化，2026年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02099\">中国黄金</a>ETF的增持量或将达到1150万盎司。</strong></p><p>这是一个什么概念？2025年中国黄金ETF曾创下历史纪录，但总增持量也不过324万盎司。这意味着，中国投资者目前的买入强度是去年的三倍以上。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69d00d1c7f0ad6906a57ebac0e51ca9f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"432\"></p><p>这种需求不仅体现在黄金上。德银注意到，由于境内投资渠道有限，中国某白银期货基金在去年12月一度出现了<strong>62%的惊人溢价</strong>。尽管存在风险，但溢价在1月短暂回落后又迅速飙升至59%，甚至触发了交易停牌。</p><p>在德银看来，这种“东方定价权”的崛起，为全球金价筑起了一道坚实的底部防线。</p><h2 id=\"id_32722114\">中国投资者“越涨越买”</h2><p>而在对中国市场的深度调研中，瑞银捕捉到了一个至关重要的结构性变化：<strong>高金价虽然抑制了珠宝消费，但却激发了更为猛烈的投资性买需。</strong></p><p>瑞银在报告中指出，中国市场的“看涨情绪”已处于多年高位。过去，金价上涨往往会吓退中国消费者，但这一次，中国投资者展现出了“越涨越买”的特征。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>“珠宝转投资”的跷跷板：</strong> 瑞银观察到，尽管零售端的珠宝需求因金价过高而出现季节性放缓，但这部分缺口已被激增的实物金条、金币需求完全填补。</p></li><li><p><strong>离岸避险情绪：</strong> 瑞银分析称，中国在岸市场强烈的资产保值诉求，驱动资金疯狂涌入黄金ETF。瑞银的数据显示，中国已成为当前全球黄金ETF净流入的最强引擎，这种由“避险+资产轮动”驱动的买盘，比传统的礼品消费更具持续性和规模效应。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f28be80642ff749072e0290abe6f0566\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"435\"></p><h2 id=\"id_810952837\">瑞银：持仓依然偏低，4500美元是“支撑”</h2><p>瑞银策略师Joni Teves则指出，尽管金价经历了大幅波动，但<strong>大部分长期机构投资者的黄金配置仍然处于较低水平。</strong> 随着金价回落，这些尚未建仓或仓位不足的投资者将获得完美的入场点。</p><p>瑞银预测，<strong>4500美元附近将是强力的技术支撑位</strong>，金价有望在未来几个季度重拾升势，并刷新高点。</p><p>支持这一判断的长期逻辑包括：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>去美元化持续：</strong> 央行需求依然强劲，波兰央行已批准计划，拟将黄金储备从550吨提升至700吨，甚至不惜让黄金在储备中的占比超过30%；韩国央行也表示在考虑结束长达十年的观望，重新增持黄金。瑞银指出，在去美元化和资产多元化的结构性趋势下，央行的“买入补丁”将长期存在。</p></li><li><p><strong>实际收益率钝化：</strong> 近几个月，黄金表现出了对美联储加息预期和实际利率上升的“免疫力”，这意味着驱动金价的主轴已从“利率博弈”转向“信用风险对冲”。</p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_809241595\">德银：6000美元目标不变，回调即是入场点</h2><p>对于后市，华尔街的观点高度一致：短期整理，中长期依然“闪耀”。</p><p>德意志银行坚定地维持了黄金6000美元/盎司的目标价，认为目前的调整只是大趋势中的微小波折。</p><p>该行分析师Michael Hsueh在2月2日的报告中写道，包括央行买盘在内，黄金的所谓主题驱动因素“依然积极，我们认为投资者配置黄金的理由将不会有变。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aafb82e486af39c7c4d956996140e400\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"342\"></p><h2 id=\"id_2391170340\">巴克莱：黄金矿业股依然具有吸引力</h2><p>而除了现货黄金，巴克莱还给出了一个极具吸引力的套利机会：<strong>黄金矿业股。</strong></p><p>历史经验显示，黄金牛市往往持续2-4年，涨幅可达200%-400%。而自2023年10月以来，本轮牛市涨幅仅170%。更重要的是，矿企的EPS（每股收益）动能尚未完全释放。</p><p>巴克莱认为矿业股有望在金价企稳后迎来一波猛烈的报复性补涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fd85e5b39918c6f389b14b4f7e6110cc\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"603\"></p><p>黄金市场的这轮“暂停思考”，或许正是为了下一次更强力的冲刺。正如华尔街分析师们所总结的：在法币信用动摇、地缘局势诡谲的2026年，黄金的诱惑力不仅在于避险，更在于它在充满不确定性的世界里，提供了难得的确定性。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>黄金牛市还在吗？华尔街坚定看多：技术性回调不要怕，中国买家已成黄金市场强劲支柱！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄金牛市还在吗？华尔街坚定看多：技术性回调不要怕，中国买家已成黄金市场强劲支柱！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-03 11:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764808><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2026年开年的黄金市场，演绎了一场极致的“惊魂记”。在短短数周内，现货金价从4300美元一路狂飙至5600美元的历史巅峰，随即又如断线风筝般坠落至4500美元下方。这种单日两位数的跌幅，在黄金历史上仅出现过两次——分别是1980年和1983年。面对“闪崩”，市场关于黄金泡沫破裂的质疑声此起彼伏。然而，巴克莱、瑞银和德意志银行等华尔街巨头却在巨震中保持了惊人的冷静。在他们看来，这并非牛市的终结，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764808\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"USAU":"美国黄金公司","NEM":"纽曼矿业","01787":"山东黄金","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","GFI":"金田","03939":"万国黄金集团","AEM":"伊格尔矿业","RGLD":"皇家黄金","BK4504":"桥水持仓","AU":"AngloGold Ashanti Ltd ADS","BK4588":"碎股","03330":"灵宝黄金(一百)","EQX":"EQUINOX GOLD CORP","VGZ":"Vista Gold Corp","KGC":"金罗斯黄金","HL":"赫克拉矿业","CDE":"科尔黛伦矿业","02099":"中国黄金国际","EGO":"埃氏金业","06693":"赤峰黄金","02899":"紫金矿业","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","B":"Barrick Mining Corporation","06181":"老铺黄金","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","HMY":"哈莫尼黄金","UGL":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares","01818":"招金矿业"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764808","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2608489428","content_text":"2026年开年的黄金市场，演绎了一场极致的“惊魂记”。在短短数周内，现货金价从4300美元一路狂飙至5600美元的历史巅峰，随即又如断线风筝般坠落至4500美元下方。这种单日两位数的跌幅，在黄金历史上仅出现过两次——分别是1980年和1983年。面对“闪崩”，市场关于黄金泡沫破裂的质疑声此起彼伏。然而，巴克莱、瑞银和德意志银行等华尔街巨头却在巨震中保持了惊人的冷静。在他们看来，这并非牛市的终结，而是一次极致挤压后的“健康清算”。在宏观叙事未变的背景下，黄金正处于通往6000美元目标的“技术性休整”。与此同时，一个关键的支撑是，中国买家正在疯狂扫货。德银报告显示，中国投资者目前的买入黄金ETF强度可能是去年的三倍以上。大行共识：“极致拥挤”后的技术性回踩黄金之所以在近期出现剧烈调整，在华尔街眼中更多是“技术性”而非“根本性”的。瑞银在最新的报告中直言：黄金涨势结束了吗？简而言之，我们的答案是否定的。该行认为，金价从高位回落约21%，主要归结为短期投机头寸的“大清洗”。此前的单边暴涨导致市场仓位过度拥挤，当获利盘涌出时，踩踏效应被成倍放大。瑞银策略师Joni Teves认为：目前来看，短期盘整是必要的，我们认为从长远来看，此次回调对市场是有益的。这段时间应该会为投资者提供以更具吸引力的入场点构建长期战略仓位的机会。我们预计支撑位将在附近出现。巴克莱的分析也印证了这一点。其模型显示，黄金的公允价值目前约在4000美元。尽管目前的溢价依然存在，但回落至4900美元后，溢价已回归至合理标准差内。该行强调，在政策动荡和法币信誉受损的背景下，金价长期偏离公允价值并非泡沫，而是市场对风险的一种“前瞻性定价”。别慌，基本面没变尽管价格剧震，但各大行均强调：驱动黄金长牛的底层基本面没有发生太大变化。瑞银写道：从基本面来看，我们认为情况并未发生太大变化。我们预计，包括散户、机构和官方部门在内的各方需求都将全面恢复。这将最终推动黄金恢复上涨趋势，并在未来几个季度创下新高。而全球宏观环境的动荡依然是黄金的“燃油”。地缘政治、关税政策、持续的财政扩张以及对法币贬值的担忧，正迫使投资者将黄金视为避险的“最后一道防线”。“财政主导”下的美元贬值压力：巴克莱指出，特朗普2.0时代的政策核心是“扩张性财政+关税通胀”。美国政府债务水平高企且无意约束，这种“财政主导（Fiscal Dominance）”的环境直接削弱了美债的避险属性。投资者对法币贬值的长期恐惧（Fiat Debasement）不仅没有消失，反而因政策不确定性而加剧。美联储换帅难改“通胀漂移”：尽管特朗普提名的美联储主席沃什（Kevin Warsh）被视为制度连贯性的象征，但巴克莱认为，政策波动带来的挑战不会很快消失。该行计算，美国CPI每上升1%，金价就有5%的内生上涨动力。在未来一年通胀预期3%背景下，金价仅凭“通胀漂移”就有15%的保底涨幅。地缘政治与“战略自主”：德意志银行指出，当前全球政治与贸易关系正在发生结构性位移。继俄罗斯储备被冻结后，全球央行对“战略自主”的需求达到了前所未有的高度。黄金作为唯一的“非政权信用资产”，其在储备中的地位正从“收益驱动”转向“生存驱动”。“神秘力量”现身：中国买家正在疯狂扫货在此次金价博弈中，德意志银行捕捉到了一个至关重要的变量：中国投资者正在成为全球贵金属市场的“关键支柱”。数据显示，仅在2026年1月，中国黄金ETF的增持量就达到了94万盎司。德银分析师Michael Hsueh指出，如果按此速度来估算年化，2026年中国黄金ETF的增持量或将达到1150万盎司。这是一个什么概念？2025年中国黄金ETF曾创下历史纪录，但总增持量也不过324万盎司。这意味着，中国投资者目前的买入强度是去年的三倍以上。这种需求不仅体现在黄金上。德银注意到，由于境内投资渠道有限，中国某白银期货基金在去年12月一度出现了62%的惊人溢价。尽管存在风险，但溢价在1月短暂回落后又迅速飙升至59%，甚至触发了交易停牌。在德银看来，这种“东方定价权”的崛起，为全球金价筑起了一道坚实的底部防线。中国投资者“越涨越买”而在对中国市场的深度调研中，瑞银捕捉到了一个至关重要的结构性变化：高金价虽然抑制了珠宝消费，但却激发了更为猛烈的投资性买需。瑞银在报告中指出，中国市场的“看涨情绪”已处于多年高位。过去，金价上涨往往会吓退中国消费者，但这一次，中国投资者展现出了“越涨越买”的特征。“珠宝转投资”的跷跷板： 瑞银观察到，尽管零售端的珠宝需求因金价过高而出现季节性放缓，但这部分缺口已被激增的实物金条、金币需求完全填补。离岸避险情绪： 瑞银分析称，中国在岸市场强烈的资产保值诉求，驱动资金疯狂涌入黄金ETF。瑞银的数据显示，中国已成为当前全球黄金ETF净流入的最强引擎，这种由“避险+资产轮动”驱动的买盘，比传统的礼品消费更具持续性和规模效应。瑞银：持仓依然偏低，4500美元是“支撑”瑞银策略师Joni Teves则指出，尽管金价经历了大幅波动，但大部分长期机构投资者的黄金配置仍然处于较低水平。 随着金价回落，这些尚未建仓或仓位不足的投资者将获得完美的入场点。瑞银预测，4500美元附近将是强力的技术支撑位，金价有望在未来几个季度重拾升势，并刷新高点。支持这一判断的长期逻辑包括：去美元化持续： 央行需求依然强劲，波兰央行已批准计划，拟将黄金储备从550吨提升至700吨，甚至不惜让黄金在储备中的占比超过30%；韩国央行也表示在考虑结束长达十年的观望，重新增持黄金。瑞银指出，在去美元化和资产多元化的结构性趋势下，央行的“买入补丁”将长期存在。实际收益率钝化： 近几个月，黄金表现出了对美联储加息预期和实际利率上升的“免疫力”，这意味着驱动金价的主轴已从“利率博弈”转向“信用风险对冲”。德银：6000美元目标不变，回调即是入场点对于后市，华尔街的观点高度一致：短期整理，中长期依然“闪耀”。德意志银行坚定地维持了黄金6000美元/盎司的目标价，认为目前的调整只是大趋势中的微小波折。该行分析师Michael Hsueh在2月2日的报告中写道，包括央行买盘在内，黄金的所谓主题驱动因素“依然积极，我们认为投资者配置黄金的理由将不会有变。”巴克莱：黄金矿业股依然具有吸引力而除了现货黄金，巴克莱还给出了一个极具吸引力的套利机会：黄金矿业股。历史经验显示，黄金牛市往往持续2-4年，涨幅可达200%-400%。而自2023年10月以来，本轮牛市涨幅仅170%。更重要的是，矿企的EPS（每股收益）动能尚未完全释放。巴克莱认为矿业股有望在金价企稳后迎来一波猛烈的报复性补涨。黄金市场的这轮“暂停思考”，或许正是为了下一次更强力的冲刺。正如华尔街分析师们所总结的：在法币信用动摇、地缘局势诡谲的2026年，黄金的诱惑力不仅在于避险，更在于它在充满不确定性的世界里，提供了难得的确定性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USAU":2,"NEM":2,"AEM":2,"01818":2,"VGZ":2,"02899":2,"GLD":2,"AU":2,"EGO":2,"IAU":2,"06693":2,"B":2,"GCmain":2,"HL":2,"MGCmain":2,"02099":2,"GFI":2,"HMY":2,"MGC2602":2,"CDE":2,"EQX":2,"RGLD":2,"01787":2,"XAUUSD.FOREX":2,"03939":2,"KGC":2,"06181":2,"03330":2,"02303":2,"UGL":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":528975269974032,"gmtCreate":1770175592015,"gmtModify":1770178793456,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"万恶的资本家！串通大嘴巴变色龙特朗普假造紧张局势，专门发这种假参考吸引中国人高位接盘！自己偷偷跑！！专割中国人羊毛！","listText":"万恶的资本家！串通大嘴巴变色龙特朗普假造紧张局势，专门发这种假参考吸引中国人高位接盘！自己偷偷跑！！专割中国人羊毛！","text":"万恶的资本家！串通大嘴巴变色龙特朗普假造紧张局势，专门发这种假参考吸引中国人高位接盘！自己偷偷跑！！专割中国人羊毛！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/528975269974032","repostId":"2608489428","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2608489428","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1770087763,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2608489428?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-03 11:02","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"黄金牛市还在吗？华尔街坚定看多：技术性回调不要怕，中国买家已成黄金市场强劲支柱！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2608489428","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近期黄金暴跌被华尔街视为“技术性洗盘”，牛市逻辑并未动摇。德银坚定看多至6000美元，强调中国买家正疯狂扫货，1月黄金ETF增持94万盎司，买入强度或达去年三倍；瑞银指4500美元为强力支撑位。巴克莱认为，在法币信用危机与政策动荡下，黄金溢价将长期存在。","content":"<p>2026年开年的黄金市场，演绎了一场极致的“惊魂记”。</p><p>在短短数周内，现货金价从4300美元一路狂飙至5600美元的历史巅峰，随即又如断线风筝般坠落至4500美元下方。这种单日两位数的跌幅，在黄金历史上仅出现过两次——分别是1980年和1983年。</p><p>面对“闪崩”，市场关于黄金泡沫破裂的质疑声此起彼伏。然而，巴克莱、瑞银和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>等华尔街巨头却在巨震中保持了惊人的冷静。</p><p>在他们看来，<strong>这并非牛市的终结，而是一次极致挤压后的“健康清算”。在宏观叙事未变的背景下，黄金正处于通往6000美元目标的“技术性休整”。</strong></p><p><strong>与此同时，一个关键的支撑是，中国买家正在疯狂扫货。</strong>德银报告显示，中国投资者目前的买入黄金ETF强度可能是去年的三倍以上。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5bc68959906d3afb402e317c7797f641\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"417\"></p><h2 id=\"id_4017511843\">大行共识：“极致拥挤”后的技术性回踩</h2><p>黄金之所以在近期出现剧烈调整，在华尔街眼中更多是“技术性”而非“根本性”的。瑞银在最新的报告中直言：</p><blockquote><p><strong>黄金涨势结束了吗？简而言之，我们的答案是否定的。</strong></p></blockquote><p>该行认为，金价从高位回落约21%，主要归结为短期投机头寸的“大清洗”。此前的单边暴涨导致市场仓位过度拥挤，当获利盘涌出时，踩踏效应被成倍放大。瑞银策略师Joni Teves认为：</p><blockquote><p><strong>目前来看，短期盘整是必要的，我们认为从长远来看，此次回调对市场是有益的。</strong>这段时间应该会为投资者提供以更具吸引力的入场点构建长期战略仓位的机会。我们预计支撑位将在附近出现。</p></blockquote><p>巴克莱的分析也印证了这一点。其模型显示，黄金的公允价值目前约在4000美元。尽管目前的溢价依然存在，但回落至4900美元后，溢价已回归至合理标准差内。</p><p>该行强调，在政策动荡和法币信誉受损的背景下，金价长期偏离公允价值并非泡沫，而是市场对风险的一种“前瞻性定价”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b68171dba8572c84be5b28df247ec79\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"488\"></p><h2 id=\"id_1233494495\">别慌，基本面没变</h2><p>尽管价格剧震，但各大行均强调：驱动黄金长牛的底层基本面没有发生太大变化。</p><p>瑞银写道：</p><blockquote><p>从基本面来看，我们认为情况并未发生太大变化。我们预计，包括散户、机构和官方部门在内的各方需求都将全面恢复。这将最终推动黄金恢复上涨趋势，并在未来几个季度创下新高。</p></blockquote><p>而全球宏观环境的动荡依然是黄金的“燃油”。地缘政治、关税政策、持续的财政扩张以及对法币贬值的担忧，正迫使投资者将黄金视为避险的“最后一道防线”。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>“财政主导”下的美元贬值压力：</strong></p></li></ul><p>巴克莱指出，特朗普2.0时代的政策核心是“扩张性财政+关税通胀”。美国政府债务水平高企且无意约束，这种“财政主导（Fiscal Dominance）”的环境直接削弱了美债的避险属性。投资者对法币贬值的长期恐惧（Fiat Debasement）不仅没有消失，反而因政策不确定性而加剧。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>美联储换帅难改“通胀漂移”：</strong></p></li></ul><p>尽管特朗普提名的美联储主席沃什（Kevin Warsh）被视为制度连贯性的象征，但巴克莱认为，政策波动带来的挑战不会很快消失。该行计算，美国CPI每上升1%，金价就有5%的内生上涨动力。在未来一年通胀预期3%背景下，金价仅凭“通胀漂移”就有15%的保底涨幅。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>地缘政治与“战略自主”：</strong></p></li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>指出，当前全球政治与贸易关系正在发生结构性位移。继俄罗斯储备被冻结后，全球央行对“战略自主”的需求达到了前所未有的高度。黄金作为唯一的“非政权信用资产”，其在储备中的地位正从“收益驱动”转向“生存驱动”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/349769a25f90a043adce86eaabe48a71\" tg-width=\"923\" tg-height=\"430\"></p><h2 id=\"id_1911000237\">“神秘力量”现身：中国买家正在疯狂扫货</h2><p>在此次金价博弈中，德意志银行捕捉到了一个至关重要的变量：<strong>中国投资者正在成为全球贵金属市场的“关键支柱”。</strong></p><p>数据显示，仅在2026年1月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600916\">中国黄金</a>ETF的增持量就达到了94万盎司。德银分析师Michael Hsueh指出，<strong>如果按此速度来估算年化，2026年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02099\">中国黄金</a>ETF的增持量或将达到1150万盎司。</strong></p><p>这是一个什么概念？2025年中国黄金ETF曾创下历史纪录，但总增持量也不过324万盎司。这意味着，中国投资者目前的买入强度是去年的三倍以上。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69d00d1c7f0ad6906a57ebac0e51ca9f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"432\"></p><p>这种需求不仅体现在黄金上。德银注意到，由于境内投资渠道有限，中国某白银期货基金在去年12月一度出现了<strong>62%的惊人溢价</strong>。尽管存在风险，但溢价在1月短暂回落后又迅速飙升至59%，甚至触发了交易停牌。</p><p>在德银看来，这种“东方定价权”的崛起，为全球金价筑起了一道坚实的底部防线。</p><h2 id=\"id_32722114\">中国投资者“越涨越买”</h2><p>而在对中国市场的深度调研中，瑞银捕捉到了一个至关重要的结构性变化：<strong>高金价虽然抑制了珠宝消费，但却激发了更为猛烈的投资性买需。</strong></p><p>瑞银在报告中指出，中国市场的“看涨情绪”已处于多年高位。过去，金价上涨往往会吓退中国消费者，但这一次，中国投资者展现出了“越涨越买”的特征。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>“珠宝转投资”的跷跷板：</strong> 瑞银观察到，尽管零售端的珠宝需求因金价过高而出现季节性放缓，但这部分缺口已被激增的实物金条、金币需求完全填补。</p></li><li><p><strong>离岸避险情绪：</strong> 瑞银分析称，中国在岸市场强烈的资产保值诉求，驱动资金疯狂涌入黄金ETF。瑞银的数据显示，中国已成为当前全球黄金ETF净流入的最强引擎，这种由“避险+资产轮动”驱动的买盘，比传统的礼品消费更具持续性和规模效应。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f28be80642ff749072e0290abe6f0566\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"435\"></p><h2 id=\"id_810952837\">瑞银：持仓依然偏低，4500美元是“支撑”</h2><p>瑞银策略师Joni Teves则指出，尽管金价经历了大幅波动，但<strong>大部分长期机构投资者的黄金配置仍然处于较低水平。</strong> 随着金价回落，这些尚未建仓或仓位不足的投资者将获得完美的入场点。</p><p>瑞银预测，<strong>4500美元附近将是强力的技术支撑位</strong>，金价有望在未来几个季度重拾升势，并刷新高点。</p><p>支持这一判断的长期逻辑包括：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>去美元化持续：</strong> 央行需求依然强劲，波兰央行已批准计划，拟将黄金储备从550吨提升至700吨，甚至不惜让黄金在储备中的占比超过30%；韩国央行也表示在考虑结束长达十年的观望，重新增持黄金。瑞银指出，在去美元化和资产多元化的结构性趋势下，央行的“买入补丁”将长期存在。</p></li><li><p><strong>实际收益率钝化：</strong> 近几个月，黄金表现出了对美联储加息预期和实际利率上升的“免疫力”，这意味着驱动金价的主轴已从“利率博弈”转向“信用风险对冲”。</p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_809241595\">德银：6000美元目标不变，回调即是入场点</h2><p>对于后市，华尔街的观点高度一致：短期整理，中长期依然“闪耀”。</p><p>德意志银行坚定地维持了黄金6000美元/盎司的目标价，认为目前的调整只是大趋势中的微小波折。</p><p>该行分析师Michael Hsueh在2月2日的报告中写道，包括央行买盘在内，黄金的所谓主题驱动因素“依然积极，我们认为投资者配置黄金的理由将不会有变。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aafb82e486af39c7c4d956996140e400\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"342\"></p><h2 id=\"id_2391170340\">巴克莱：黄金矿业股依然具有吸引力</h2><p>而除了现货黄金，巴克莱还给出了一个极具吸引力的套利机会：<strong>黄金矿业股。</strong></p><p>历史经验显示，黄金牛市往往持续2-4年，涨幅可达200%-400%。而自2023年10月以来，本轮牛市涨幅仅170%。更重要的是，矿企的EPS（每股收益）动能尚未完全释放。</p><p>巴克莱认为矿业股有望在金价企稳后迎来一波猛烈的报复性补涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fd85e5b39918c6f389b14b4f7e6110cc\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"603\"></p><p>黄金市场的这轮“暂停思考”，或许正是为了下一次更强力的冲刺。正如华尔街分析师们所总结的：在法币信用动摇、地缘局势诡谲的2026年，黄金的诱惑力不仅在于避险，更在于它在充满不确定性的世界里，提供了难得的确定性。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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}\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄金牛市还在吗？华尔街坚定看多：技术性回调不要怕，中国买家已成黄金市场强劲支柱！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-03 11:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764808><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2026年开年的黄金市场，演绎了一场极致的“惊魂记”。在短短数周内，现货金价从4300美元一路狂飙至5600美元的历史巅峰，随即又如断线风筝般坠落至4500美元下方。这种单日两位数的跌幅，在黄金历史上仅出现过两次——分别是1980年和1983年。面对“闪崩”，市场关于黄金泡沫破裂的质疑声此起彼伏。然而，巴克莱、瑞银和德意志银行等华尔街巨头却在巨震中保持了惊人的冷静。在他们看来，这并非牛市的终结，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764808\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"USAU":"美国黄金公司","NEM":"纽曼矿业","01787":"山东黄金","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","GFI":"金田","03939":"万国黄金集团","AEM":"伊格尔矿业","RGLD":"皇家黄金","BK4504":"桥水持仓","AU":"AngloGold Ashanti Ltd ADS","BK4588":"碎股","03330":"灵宝黄金(一百)","EQX":"EQUINOX GOLD CORP","VGZ":"Vista Gold Corp","KGC":"金罗斯黄金","HL":"赫克拉矿业","CDE":"科尔黛伦矿业","02099":"中国黄金国际","EGO":"埃氏金业","06693":"赤峰黄金","02899":"紫金矿业","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","B":"Barrick Mining Corporation","06181":"老铺黄金","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","HMY":"哈莫尼黄金","UGL":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares","01818":"招金矿业"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764808","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2608489428","content_text":"2026年开年的黄金市场，演绎了一场极致的“惊魂记”。在短短数周内，现货金价从4300美元一路狂飙至5600美元的历史巅峰，随即又如断线风筝般坠落至4500美元下方。这种单日两位数的跌幅，在黄金历史上仅出现过两次——分别是1980年和1983年。面对“闪崩”，市场关于黄金泡沫破裂的质疑声此起彼伏。然而，巴克莱、瑞银和德意志银行等华尔街巨头却在巨震中保持了惊人的冷静。在他们看来，这并非牛市的终结，而是一次极致挤压后的“健康清算”。在宏观叙事未变的背景下，黄金正处于通往6000美元目标的“技术性休整”。与此同时，一个关键的支撑是，中国买家正在疯狂扫货。德银报告显示，中国投资者目前的买入黄金ETF强度可能是去年的三倍以上。大行共识：“极致拥挤”后的技术性回踩黄金之所以在近期出现剧烈调整，在华尔街眼中更多是“技术性”而非“根本性”的。瑞银在最新的报告中直言：黄金涨势结束了吗？简而言之，我们的答案是否定的。该行认为，金价从高位回落约21%，主要归结为短期投机头寸的“大清洗”。此前的单边暴涨导致市场仓位过度拥挤，当获利盘涌出时，踩踏效应被成倍放大。瑞银策略师Joni Teves认为：目前来看，短期盘整是必要的，我们认为从长远来看，此次回调对市场是有益的。这段时间应该会为投资者提供以更具吸引力的入场点构建长期战略仓位的机会。我们预计支撑位将在附近出现。巴克莱的分析也印证了这一点。其模型显示，黄金的公允价值目前约在4000美元。尽管目前的溢价依然存在，但回落至4900美元后，溢价已回归至合理标准差内。该行强调，在政策动荡和法币信誉受损的背景下，金价长期偏离公允价值并非泡沫，而是市场对风险的一种“前瞻性定价”。别慌，基本面没变尽管价格剧震，但各大行均强调：驱动黄金长牛的底层基本面没有发生太大变化。瑞银写道：从基本面来看，我们认为情况并未发生太大变化。我们预计，包括散户、机构和官方部门在内的各方需求都将全面恢复。这将最终推动黄金恢复上涨趋势，并在未来几个季度创下新高。而全球宏观环境的动荡依然是黄金的“燃油”。地缘政治、关税政策、持续的财政扩张以及对法币贬值的担忧，正迫使投资者将黄金视为避险的“最后一道防线”。“财政主导”下的美元贬值压力：巴克莱指出，特朗普2.0时代的政策核心是“扩张性财政+关税通胀”。美国政府债务水平高企且无意约束，这种“财政主导（Fiscal Dominance）”的环境直接削弱了美债的避险属性。投资者对法币贬值的长期恐惧（Fiat Debasement）不仅没有消失，反而因政策不确定性而加剧。美联储换帅难改“通胀漂移”：尽管特朗普提名的美联储主席沃什（Kevin Warsh）被视为制度连贯性的象征，但巴克莱认为，政策波动带来的挑战不会很快消失。该行计算，美国CPI每上升1%，金价就有5%的内生上涨动力。在未来一年通胀预期3%背景下，金价仅凭“通胀漂移”就有15%的保底涨幅。地缘政治与“战略自主”：德意志银行指出，当前全球政治与贸易关系正在发生结构性位移。继俄罗斯储备被冻结后，全球央行对“战略自主”的需求达到了前所未有的高度。黄金作为唯一的“非政权信用资产”，其在储备中的地位正从“收益驱动”转向“生存驱动”。“神秘力量”现身：中国买家正在疯狂扫货在此次金价博弈中，德意志银行捕捉到了一个至关重要的变量：中国投资者正在成为全球贵金属市场的“关键支柱”。数据显示，仅在2026年1月，中国黄金ETF的增持量就达到了94万盎司。德银分析师Michael Hsueh指出，如果按此速度来估算年化，2026年中国黄金ETF的增持量或将达到1150万盎司。这是一个什么概念？2025年中国黄金ETF曾创下历史纪录，但总增持量也不过324万盎司。这意味着，中国投资者目前的买入强度是去年的三倍以上。这种需求不仅体现在黄金上。德银注意到，由于境内投资渠道有限，中国某白银期货基金在去年12月一度出现了62%的惊人溢价。尽管存在风险，但溢价在1月短暂回落后又迅速飙升至59%，甚至触发了交易停牌。在德银看来，这种“东方定价权”的崛起，为全球金价筑起了一道坚实的底部防线。中国投资者“越涨越买”而在对中国市场的深度调研中，瑞银捕捉到了一个至关重要的结构性变化：高金价虽然抑制了珠宝消费，但却激发了更为猛烈的投资性买需。瑞银在报告中指出，中国市场的“看涨情绪”已处于多年高位。过去，金价上涨往往会吓退中国消费者，但这一次，中国投资者展现出了“越涨越买”的特征。“珠宝转投资”的跷跷板： 瑞银观察到，尽管零售端的珠宝需求因金价过高而出现季节性放缓，但这部分缺口已被激增的实物金条、金币需求完全填补。离岸避险情绪： 瑞银分析称，中国在岸市场强烈的资产保值诉求，驱动资金疯狂涌入黄金ETF。瑞银的数据显示，中国已成为当前全球黄金ETF净流入的最强引擎，这种由“避险+资产轮动”驱动的买盘，比传统的礼品消费更具持续性和规模效应。瑞银：持仓依然偏低，4500美元是“支撑”瑞银策略师Joni Teves则指出，尽管金价经历了大幅波动，但大部分长期机构投资者的黄金配置仍然处于较低水平。 随着金价回落，这些尚未建仓或仓位不足的投资者将获得完美的入场点。瑞银预测，4500美元附近将是强力的技术支撑位，金价有望在未来几个季度重拾升势，并刷新高点。支持这一判断的长期逻辑包括：去美元化持续： 央行需求依然强劲，波兰央行已批准计划，拟将黄金储备从550吨提升至700吨，甚至不惜让黄金在储备中的占比超过30%；韩国央行也表示在考虑结束长达十年的观望，重新增持黄金。瑞银指出，在去美元化和资产多元化的结构性趋势下，央行的“买入补丁”将长期存在。实际收益率钝化： 近几个月，黄金表现出了对美联储加息预期和实际利率上升的“免疫力”，这意味着驱动金价的主轴已从“利率博弈”转向“信用风险对冲”。德银：6000美元目标不变，回调即是入场点对于后市，华尔街的观点高度一致：短期整理，中长期依然“闪耀”。德意志银行坚定地维持了黄金6000美元/盎司的目标价，认为目前的调整只是大趋势中的微小波折。该行分析师Michael Hsueh在2月2日的报告中写道，包括央行买盘在内，黄金的所谓主题驱动因素“依然积极，我们认为投资者配置黄金的理由将不会有变。”巴克莱：黄金矿业股依然具有吸引力而除了现货黄金，巴克莱还给出了一个极具吸引力的套利机会：黄金矿业股。历史经验显示，黄金牛市往往持续2-4年，涨幅可达200%-400%。而自2023年10月以来，本轮牛市涨幅仅170%。更重要的是，矿企的EPS（每股收益）动能尚未完全释放。巴克莱认为矿业股有望在金价企稳后迎来一波猛烈的报复性补涨。黄金市场的这轮“暂停思考”，或许正是为了下一次更强力的冲刺。正如华尔街分析师们所总结的：在法币信用动摇、地缘局势诡谲的2026年，黄金的诱惑力不仅在于避险，更在于它在充满不确定性的世界里，提供了难得的确定性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USAU":2,"NEM":2,"AEM":2,"01818":2,"VGZ":2,"02899":2,"GLD":2,"AU":2,"EGO":2,"IAU":2,"06693":2,"B":2,"GCmain":2,"HL":2,"MGCmain":2,"02099":2,"GFI":2,"HMY":2,"MGC2602":2,"CDE":2,"EQX":2,"RGLD":2,"01787":2,"XAUUSD.FOREX":2,"03939":2,"KGC":2,"06181":2,"03330":2,"02303":2,"UGL":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":526886520590584,"gmtCreate":1769612305781,"gmtModify":1769613900560,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"英特尔牛逼的地方还不仅仅是代工！请你们查查，类脑芯片谁领跑全球","listText":"英特尔牛逼的地方还不仅仅是代工！请你们查查，类脑芯片谁领跑全球","text":"英特尔牛逼的地方还不仅仅是代工！请你们查查，类脑芯片谁领跑全球","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/526886520590584","repostId":"2606527757","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2606527757","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1769569816,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2606527757?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-28 11:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"报道：供应链消息称，苹果之后，英伟达下一代GPU也将合作英特尔，以取悦特朗普","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2606527757","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"供应链人士透露，英伟达预计在2028年推出的Feynman架构平台将与英特尔合作，英伟达在合作中采用\"量少、低阶、非核心\"的合作策略。除英伟达外，苹果、谷歌、微软、AWS、高通、博通等企业也在与英特尔洽谈合作。分析认为，在政治、供应链韧性与台积电先进封装产能受限的现实下，美国芯片大厂势必启动双代工策略。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>供应链人士透露，英伟达预计在2028年推出的Feynman架构平台将与英特尔合作，英伟达在合作中采用&#34;量少、低阶、非核心&#34;的合作策略。除英伟达外，苹果、谷歌、微软、AWS、高通、博通等企业也在与英特尔洽谈合作。分析认为，在政治、供应链韧性与台积电先进封装产能受限的现实下，美国芯片大厂势必启动双代工策略。</p></blockquote><p>继<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>之后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>也计划将部分芯片制造业务转向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>代工。英伟达预计在2028年推出的Feynman架构平台将与英特尔合作，这是美国科技巨头在特朗普政府推动&#34;美国制造&#34;目标下调整供应链策略的最新案例。英特尔隔夜涨超3%，夜盘续涨近5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9163379f1f2f6fb34ab5b05ec19f24f\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"150\"/></p><p>据DIGITIMES周三报道，<strong>供应链人士透露，英伟达将在与英特尔的合作中采用&#34;量少、低阶、非核心&#34;的合作策略。</strong>GPU核心芯片仍由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>代工，而I/O芯片则部分采用英特尔18A或预定2028年量产的14A制程，最后由英特尔EMIB进行先进封装。<strong>按先进封装比重计算，英特尔最高约占25%，台积电约占75%。</strong></p><p>这一转变反映出美国科技企业在政治压力、关税威胁和供应链韧性考量下，不得不从高度集中于台积电的模式转向“多源供应、分散风险”的新策略。除英伟达和苹果外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、AWS、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">超微</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>等企业也在与英特尔洽谈合作。</p><p>尽管部分订单分流至英特尔，但业界认为这对台积电&#34;利远大于弊&#34;，有助于降低垄断疑虑、释放政治压力，同时台积电仍有信心稳固高阶芯片代工大单。</p><h2 id=\"id_3992556085\">英伟达Feynman架构部分转向英特尔</h2><p>英伟达在2025年9月宣布斥资50亿美元入股英特尔后，最新规划是在Rubin系列的下一代继任者Feynman架构芯片中与英特尔合作。根据供应链消息，GPU核心芯片仍由台积电代工，I/O芯片则部分采用英特尔18A或14A制程，具体选择取决于14A后续良率量产状况。</p><p>供应链人士表示，在特朗普政府美国制造目标确立与关税压力下，美国芯片大厂早已与英特尔研议合作，但由于18A未达客户期待，合作时间点应在2028年量产的14A。英特尔执行长陈立武日前表示，目前有两家客户正在评估14A制程的具体细节。</p><p>对比14A、18A制程导入风险高，多数业者与英特尔的合作从先进封装EMIB先行。供应链业者分析，美国制造目标面临成本与良率挑战，<strong>但在政治、供应链韧性与台积电先进封装产能受限的现实下，美国芯片大厂势必启动双代工策略。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2590994264\">苹果入门级处理器重启英特尔合作</h2><p>苹果与英特尔洽谈多时的合作代工产品，应是MacBook所搭载的&#34;入门级M系列处理器&#34;，目前由台积电代工。苹果Mac系列自2006年起采用英特尔x86处理器，英特尔也在2005年于美国俄勒冈州晶圆厂特为其设立&#34;Apple Group&#34;专属产线。</p><p>2020年6月，苹果正式宣布推出<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">Arm</a>架构芯片&#34;Apple Silicon&#34;，Mac系列机种2年后全数转采自研芯片。当时苹果主要考量是扩大供应链掌握度以及整合生态系，另一关键是英特尔10纳米制程延迟恐影响Mac新机上市。</p><p>供应链业者透露，苹果3年后重启与英特尔合作的主因，仍是特朗普主导下的美国制造目标与关税冲击，其次是成本、分散单一代工制造风险及产能短缺等因素。</p><h2 id=\"id_2870727608\">台积电三层战略应对客户分流</h2><p>目前观察，苹果、英伟达都以代工风险最低的产品渐进式调整。与英特尔洽谈合作的还有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>、微软、AWS、高通、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">博通</a>、超微与特斯拉等，以及掌握度最高的美国政府标案长约大单。不过，英特尔能否符合早已习惯台积电模式的科技龙头需求，变数仍大。</p><p>对台积电来说，已预见众多客户会另转往英特尔投片，但分析认为实际上&#34;利远大于弊&#34;，至少有三层战略考量：<strong>第一，可降低垄断与监管疑虑；第二，可释放美国政治压力；第三，外溢仅是&#34;非核心&#34;订单，有助于未来议价与供货。</strong></p><p>一方面替台积电在晶圆代工业市占率过高恐牵扯反垄断法的疑虑有所解套，二方面适度释出非核心订单也可减轻来自特朗普政府不断释出各种要求的压力，三方面台积电仍有信心稳固各大厂核心的高阶芯片代工大单。或许试过转单其他晶圆代工厂的客户，才会想念台积电的美好，这对于台积电未来的议价、供货更具优势。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>报道：供应链消息称，苹果之后，英伟达下一代GPU也将合作英特尔，以取悦特朗普</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n报道：供应链消息称，苹果之后，英伟达下一代GPU也将合作英特尔，以取悦特朗普\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-28 11:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764313><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>供应链人士透露，英伟达预计在2028年推出的Feynman架构平台将与英特尔合作，英伟达在合作中采用\"量少、低阶、非核心\"的合作策略。除英伟达外，苹果、谷歌、微软、AWS、高通、博通等企业也在与英特尔洽谈合作。分析认为，在政治、供应链韧性与台积电先进封装产能受限的现实下，美国芯片大厂势必启动双代工策略。继苹果之后，英伟达也计划将部分芯片制造业务转向英特尔代工。英伟达预计在2028年推出的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764313\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74be4c2a08964ef2daf32217f693b44","relate_stocks":{"LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1923622614.USD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A USD","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU2242650005.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL MULTI ASSET DYNAMIC \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2125909759.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety H-R/A SGD","SG9999014542.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","LU2125909916.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A SGD","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","LU2211815571.USD":"ALLIANZ POSITIVE CHANGE \"AT\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1923622291.USD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A USD","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) 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Acc"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764313","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2606527757","content_text":"供应链人士透露，英伟达预计在2028年推出的Feynman架构平台将与英特尔合作，英伟达在合作中采用\"量少、低阶、非核心\"的合作策略。除英伟达外，苹果、谷歌、微软、AWS、高通、博通等企业也在与英特尔洽谈合作。分析认为，在政治、供应链韧性与台积电先进封装产能受限的现实下，美国芯片大厂势必启动双代工策略。继苹果之后，英伟达也计划将部分芯片制造业务转向英特尔代工。英伟达预计在2028年推出的Feynman架构平台将与英特尔合作，这是美国科技巨头在特朗普政府推动\"美国制造\"目标下调整供应链策略的最新案例。英特尔隔夜涨超3%，夜盘续涨近5%。据DIGITIMES周三报道，供应链人士透露，英伟达将在与英特尔的合作中采用\"量少、低阶、非核心\"的合作策略。GPU核心芯片仍由台积电代工，而I/O芯片则部分采用英特尔18A或预定2028年量产的14A制程，最后由英特尔EMIB进行先进封装。按先进封装比重计算，英特尔最高约占25%，台积电约占75%。这一转变反映出美国科技企业在政治压力、关税威胁和供应链韧性考量下，不得不从高度集中于台积电的模式转向“多源供应、分散风险”的新策略。除英伟达和苹果外，谷歌、微软、AWS、高通、博通、超微和特斯拉等企业也在与英特尔洽谈合作。尽管部分订单分流至英特尔，但业界认为这对台积电\"利远大于弊\"，有助于降低垄断疑虑、释放政治压力，同时台积电仍有信心稳固高阶芯片代工大单。英伟达Feynman架构部分转向英特尔英伟达在2025年9月宣布斥资50亿美元入股英特尔后，最新规划是在Rubin系列的下一代继任者Feynman架构芯片中与英特尔合作。根据供应链消息，GPU核心芯片仍由台积电代工，I/O芯片则部分采用英特尔18A或14A制程，具体选择取决于14A后续良率量产状况。供应链人士表示，在特朗普政府美国制造目标确立与关税压力下，美国芯片大厂早已与英特尔研议合作，但由于18A未达客户期待，合作时间点应在2028年量产的14A。英特尔执行长陈立武日前表示，目前有两家客户正在评估14A制程的具体细节。对比14A、18A制程导入风险高，多数业者与英特尔的合作从先进封装EMIB先行。供应链业者分析，美国制造目标面临成本与良率挑战，但在政治、供应链韧性与台积电先进封装产能受限的现实下，美国芯片大厂势必启动双代工策略。苹果入门级处理器重启英特尔合作苹果与英特尔洽谈多时的合作代工产品，应是MacBook所搭载的\"入门级M系列处理器\"，目前由台积电代工。苹果Mac系列自2006年起采用英特尔x86处理器，英特尔也在2005年于美国俄勒冈州晶圆厂特为其设立\"Apple Group\"专属产线。2020年6月，苹果正式宣布推出Arm架构芯片\"Apple Silicon\"，Mac系列机种2年后全数转采自研芯片。当时苹果主要考量是扩大供应链掌握度以及整合生态系，另一关键是英特尔10纳米制程延迟恐影响Mac新机上市。供应链业者透露，苹果3年后重启与英特尔合作的主因，仍是特朗普主导下的美国制造目标与关税冲击，其次是成本、分散单一代工制造风险及产能短缺等因素。台积电三层战略应对客户分流目前观察，苹果、英伟达都以代工风险最低的产品渐进式调整。与英特尔洽谈合作的还有谷歌、微软、AWS、高通、博通、超微与特斯拉等，以及掌握度最高的美国政府标案长约大单。不过，英特尔能否符合早已习惯台积电模式的科技龙头需求，变数仍大。对台积电来说，已预见众多客户会另转往英特尔投片，但分析认为实际上\"利远大于弊\"，至少有三层战略考量：第一，可降低垄断与监管疑虑；第二，可释放美国政治压力；第三，外溢仅是\"非核心\"订单，有助于未来议价与供货。一方面替台积电在晶圆代工业市占率过高恐牵扯反垄断法的疑虑有所解套，二方面适度释出非核心订单也可减轻来自特朗普政府不断释出各种要求的压力，三方面台积电仍有信心稳固各大厂核心的高阶芯片代工大单。或许试过转单其他晶圆代工厂的客户，才会想念台积电的美好，这对于台积电未来的议价、供货更具优势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":521668470088024,"gmtCreate":1768396516671,"gmtModify":1768396519815,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"你就不知道了，英特尔的爆发力主要是在硅基量子芯片上","listText":"你就不知道了，英特尔的爆发力主要是在硅基量子芯片上","text":"你就不知道了，英特尔的爆发力主要是在硅基量子芯片上","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/521668470088024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2381,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000538","authorId":"9000000000000538","name":"JessieTheresa","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/178e341361d3542870f06c6123a6ebca","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000538","authorIdStr":"9000000000000538"},"content":"英特尔这块潜力爆棚，量子芯片真香！","text":"英特尔这块潜力爆棚，量子芯片真香！","html":"英特尔这块潜力爆棚，量子芯片真香！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":506968539603920,"gmtCreate":1764802292322,"gmtModify":1764802294319,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/506968539603920","repostId":"1189549161","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1189549161","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1764748724,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189549161?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-03 15:58","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"期权策略 | 大空头 Burry 这次瞄准特斯拉，第二次沽空会成功吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189549161","media":"期权女巫","summary":"最近，电影《大空头》原型人物 Michael Burry 在一条 Substack 帖子中指控，特斯拉的股价“荒谬地高估”，并指出在马斯克提出 1 万亿美元薪酬方案后，股东被稀释的情况预计将发生，每年会令股东权益被稀释约 3.6%，且马斯克并没有通过回购来抵消这一影响。Burry旗下的13F文件披露：做空英伟达。但随后特斯拉股价持续上涨。2021 年第三季度，Burry 退出了其对特斯拉的空头头寸。Burry 随后在公开场合称那只是“一个交易”，并不意味着对特斯拉长期看空。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>最近，电影《大空头》原型人物 Michael Burry 在一条 Substack 帖子中指控，特斯拉（Tesla）的股价<strong>“荒谬地高估”</strong>，并指出在马斯克（Elon Musk）提出 1 万亿美元薪酬方案后，股东被稀释的情况预计将继续发生，每年会令股东权益被稀释约 3.6%，且马斯克并没有通过回购来抵消这一影响。</p><p>Michael Burry ——因在 2008 年金融危机前精准做空美国房地产市场而闻名，并被拍成电影《大空头》。</p><p>该消息引发世界范围内的传播，下面为Bloomberg的报道：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd47663a499b877c20380b5c4656420c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1279\" tg-height=\"1379\"/></p><p><strong>近期 Michael Burry 的观点持续受到资本市场追踪：</strong></p><p>11月11日。Burry指出：科技巨头“低估折旧导致利润虚高”，2028年甲骨文利润虚高26.9%。（甲骨文截至目前跌幅超10%）</p><p>11月初。Burry旗下的13F文件披露：做空英伟达。（英伟达11月跌幅达12.5%）</p><p>Michael Burry对特斯拉的指控并无道理：特斯拉高估值、马斯克损害股东利益：</p><h4 id=\"id_914544632\">指控一，特斯拉高估值</h4><p>以最近 12 个月市盈率来看，特斯拉（Tesla）当前的 P/E 已经高达约 296 倍。这一估值远远超过传统车企，如丰田汽车（Toyota）市盈率约为 8.7倍，仅为特斯拉的百分之几。</p><p>即使与科技巨头相比，差距仍然显著，像英伟达 的 P/E 约为 44.9倍，Meta 和 Alphabet 的 P/E 则分别约为 28–31倍。</p><p>也就是说，市场给特斯拉的估值，已经不仅是对汽车业务的溢价，而是在以极高增长的科技巨头的标准对待一家汽车制造商。</p><h4 id=\"id_358471813\">指控二，马斯克损害股东利益</h4><p>2021年和2022年，Elon Musk（马斯克）通过大规模出售股票套现数百亿美元，曾导致特斯拉股价在短期内暴跌近七成，对股东造成重大损失。</p><p>如今公司的新一轮薪酬／期权计划再次引发市场担忧：未来进一步稀释股份，普通股东利益可能被进一步削弱。</p><h4 id=\"id_3348701816\">Burry曾经对特斯拉失败的沽空</h4><p>2021 年第一季度末，Burry 持有特斯拉约 800,100 股的认沽期权（put options），对应名义金额约为 5.34 亿美元。但随后特斯拉股价持续上涨。</p><p>2021 年第三季度，Burry 退出了其对特斯拉的空头头寸。Burry 随后在公开场合称那只是“一个交易”（a trade），并不意味着对特斯拉长期看空。</p><p></p><p>针对特斯拉股价方向不明，以下期权策略可作参考：</p><h2 id=\"id_3497513190\">一、偏空策略：Bear Call Spread（看空 CALL 价差）</h2><p><strong>逻辑</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Michael Burry 的指控被市场认可，并持续发酵</p></li><li><p>特斯拉估值重估</p></li></ul><p><strong>结构</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖出一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为410的CALL</p></li><li><p>买入一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为415的CALL</p></li></ul><p><strong>盈亏平衡点（到期）</strong>：413.02（目前价位429.24）</p><p><a href=\"https://tigr.link/s/10CzWz8\" title=\"TSLA 260102 410 CALL / 415 CALL \" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">TSLA 260102 410 CALL / 415 CALL</a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706f0b9e0572dd478419166ca45a54b5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1269\" tg-height=\"1383\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_763220772\">二、偏多策略：Bull Call Spread（看涨 CALL 价差）</h2><p><strong>逻辑</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Michael Burry 的指控被市场忽略</p></li><li><p>Michael Burry重演对特斯拉的失败沽空</p></li></ul><p><strong>结构</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>买入一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为440的CALL</p></li><li><p>卖出一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为445的CALL</p></li></ul><p><strong>盈亏平衡点（到期）</strong>：441.95（目前价位429.24）</p><p><a href=\"https://tigr.link/s/70CzZYe\" title=\"TSLA 260102 440 CALL / 445 CALL\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">TSLA 260102 440 CALL / 445 CALL</a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8e27e903407bc266095b990953e7df\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1284\" tg-height=\"1385\"/></p><p><em>免责声明：期权交易具有高风险特征，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权策略 | 大空头 Burry 这次瞄准特斯拉，第二次沽空会成功吗？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权策略 | 大空头 Burry 这次瞄准特斯拉，第二次沽空会成功吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-12-03 15:58</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>最近，电影《大空头》原型人物 Michael Burry 在一条 Substack 帖子中指控，特斯拉（Tesla）的股价<strong>“荒谬地高估”</strong>，并指出在马斯克（Elon Musk）提出 1 万亿美元薪酬方案后，股东被稀释的情况预计将继续发生，每年会令股东权益被稀释约 3.6%，且马斯克并没有通过回购来抵消这一影响。</p><p>Michael Burry ——因在 2008 年金融危机前精准做空美国房地产市场而闻名，并被拍成电影《大空头》。</p><p>该消息引发世界范围内的传播，下面为Bloomberg的报道：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd47663a499b877c20380b5c4656420c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1279\" tg-height=\"1379\"/></p><p><strong>近期 Michael Burry 的观点持续受到资本市场追踪：</strong></p><p>11月11日。Burry指出：科技巨头“低估折旧导致利润虚高”，2028年甲骨文利润虚高26.9%。（甲骨文截至目前跌幅超10%）</p><p>11月初。Burry旗下的13F文件披露：做空英伟达。（英伟达11月跌幅达12.5%）</p><p>Michael Burry对特斯拉的指控并无道理：特斯拉高估值、马斯克损害股东利益：</p><h4 id=\"id_914544632\">指控一，特斯拉高估值</h4><p>以最近 12 个月市盈率来看，特斯拉（Tesla）当前的 P/E 已经高达约 296 倍。这一估值远远超过传统车企，如丰田汽车（Toyota）市盈率约为 8.7倍，仅为特斯拉的百分之几。</p><p>即使与科技巨头相比，差距仍然显著，像英伟达 的 P/E 约为 44.9倍，Meta 和 Alphabet 的 P/E 则分别约为 28–31倍。</p><p>也就是说，市场给特斯拉的估值，已经不仅是对汽车业务的溢价，而是在以极高增长的科技巨头的标准对待一家汽车制造商。</p><h4 id=\"id_358471813\">指控二，马斯克损害股东利益</h4><p>2021年和2022年，Elon Musk（马斯克）通过大规模出售股票套现数百亿美元，曾导致特斯拉股价在短期内暴跌近七成，对股东造成重大损失。</p><p>如今公司的新一轮薪酬／期权计划再次引发市场担忧：未来进一步稀释股份，普通股东利益可能被进一步削弱。</p><h4 id=\"id_3348701816\">Burry曾经对特斯拉失败的沽空</h4><p>2021 年第一季度末，Burry 持有特斯拉约 800,100 股的认沽期权（put options），对应名义金额约为 5.34 亿美元。但随后特斯拉股价持续上涨。</p><p>2021 年第三季度，Burry 退出了其对特斯拉的空头头寸。Burry 随后在公开场合称那只是“一个交易”（a trade），并不意味着对特斯拉长期看空。</p><p></p><p>针对特斯拉股价方向不明，以下期权策略可作参考：</p><h2 id=\"id_3497513190\">一、偏空策略：Bear Call Spread（看空 CALL 价差）</h2><p><strong>逻辑</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Michael Burry 的指控被市场认可，并持续发酵</p></li><li><p>特斯拉估值重估</p></li></ul><p><strong>结构</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>卖出一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为410的CALL</p></li><li><p>买入一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为415的CALL</p></li></ul><p><strong>盈亏平衡点（到期）</strong>：413.02（目前价位429.24）</p><p><a href=\"https://tigr.link/s/10CzWz8\" title=\"TSLA 260102 410 CALL / 415 CALL \" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">TSLA 260102 410 CALL / 415 CALL</a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/706f0b9e0572dd478419166ca45a54b5\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1269\" tg-height=\"1383\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_763220772\">二、偏多策略：Bull Call Spread（看涨 CALL 价差）</h2><p><strong>逻辑</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Michael Burry 的指控被市场忽略</p></li><li><p>Michael Burry重演对特斯拉的失败沽空</p></li></ul><p><strong>结构</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>买入一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为440的CALL</p></li><li><p>卖出一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为445的CALL</p></li></ul><p><strong>盈亏平衡点（到期）</strong>：441.95（目前价位429.24）</p><p><a href=\"https://tigr.link/s/70CzZYe\" title=\"TSLA 260102 440 CALL / 445 CALL\" target=\"_blank\" class=\"\">TSLA 260102 440 CALL / 445 CALL</a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee8e27e903407bc266095b990953e7df\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1284\" tg-height=\"1385\"/></p><p><em>免责声明：期权交易具有高风险特征，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/340d3c04436bbba1df239d6d4a7e3fd2","relate_stocks":{"TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","TSLR":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-GraniteShares","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189549161","content_text":"最近，电影《大空头》原型人物 Michael Burry 在一条 Substack 帖子中指控，特斯拉（Tesla）的股价“荒谬地高估”，并指出在马斯克（Elon Musk）提出 1 万亿美元薪酬方案后，股东被稀释的情况预计将继续发生，每年会令股东权益被稀释约 3.6%，且马斯克并没有通过回购来抵消这一影响。Michael Burry ——因在 2008 年金融危机前精准做空美国房地产市场而闻名，并被拍成电影《大空头》。该消息引发世界范围内的传播，下面为Bloomberg的报道：近期 Michael Burry 的观点持续受到资本市场追踪：11月11日。Burry指出：科技巨头“低估折旧导致利润虚高”，2028年甲骨文利润虚高26.9%。（甲骨文截至目前跌幅超10%）11月初。Burry旗下的13F文件披露：做空英伟达。（英伟达11月跌幅达12.5%）Michael Burry对特斯拉的指控并无道理：特斯拉高估值、马斯克损害股东利益：指控一，特斯拉高估值以最近 12 个月市盈率来看，特斯拉（Tesla）当前的 P/E 已经高达约 296 倍。这一估值远远超过传统车企，如丰田汽车（Toyota）市盈率约为 8.7倍，仅为特斯拉的百分之几。即使与科技巨头相比，差距仍然显著，像英伟达 的 P/E 约为 44.9倍，Meta 和 Alphabet 的 P/E 则分别约为 28–31倍。也就是说，市场给特斯拉的估值，已经不仅是对汽车业务的溢价，而是在以极高增长的科技巨头的标准对待一家汽车制造商。指控二，马斯克损害股东利益2021年和2022年，Elon Musk（马斯克）通过大规模出售股票套现数百亿美元，曾导致特斯拉股价在短期内暴跌近七成，对股东造成重大损失。如今公司的新一轮薪酬／期权计划再次引发市场担忧：未来进一步稀释股份，普通股东利益可能被进一步削弱。Burry曾经对特斯拉失败的沽空2021 年第一季度末，Burry 持有特斯拉约 800,100 股的认沽期权（put options），对应名义金额约为 5.34 亿美元。但随后特斯拉股价持续上涨。2021 年第三季度，Burry 退出了其对特斯拉的空头头寸。Burry 随后在公开场合称那只是“一个交易”（a trade），并不意味着对特斯拉长期看空。针对特斯拉股价方向不明，以下期权策略可作参考：一、偏空策略：Bear Call Spread（看空 CALL 价差）逻辑Michael Burry 的指控被市场认可，并持续发酵特斯拉估值重估结构卖出一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为410的CALL买入一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为415的CALL盈亏平衡点（到期）：413.02（目前价位429.24）TSLA 260102 410 CALL / 415 CALL二、偏多策略：Bull Call Spread（看涨 CALL 价差）逻辑Michael Burry 的指控被市场忽略Michael Burry重演对特斯拉的失败沽空结构买入一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为440的CALL卖出一张2026年1月2日到期、行权价为445的CALL盈亏平衡点（到期）：441.95（目前价位429.24）TSLA 260102 440 CALL / 445 CALL免责声明：期权交易具有高风险特征，投资者需根据自身风险承受能力审慎决策。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLR":2,"TSLA":2,"TSLL":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1139,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":504160058474584,"gmtCreate":1764120524272,"gmtModify":1764120526505,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 大科技太贵了，没有一次像样的调整，风险都不算解除，只不过去回光返照罢了！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 大科技太贵了，没有一次像样的调整，风险都不算解除，只不过去回光返照罢了！","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 大科技太贵了，没有一次像样的调整，风险都不算解除，只不过去回光返照罢了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/504160058474584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":500022648783624,"gmtCreate":1763101516453,"gmtModify":1763101518911,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"只要自己一卖就会涨！感觉自己是救世主！","listText":"只要自己一卖就会涨！感觉自己是救世主！","text":"只要自己一卖就会涨！感觉自己是救世主！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/500022648783624","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":498757245419856,"gmtCreate":1762791857346,"gmtModify":1762791859592,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/498757245419856","repostId":"20231102030827297","repostType":13,"repost":{"supObjectId":"C20231011073518216","supType":16,"gid":"C20231011073518216","title":"FCN投资课","desc":"4节课轻松实现FCN入门到进阶","level":1,"speaker":"","content":"<p>在全球风险资产波动加剧的情况下，既要追求稳健稳健，又要高收益？</p><p></p><p>这种产品不是不存在，就看我们怎么去慧眼识珠，更好的掌握并利用了，这款产品就是FCN，本套课程就是教大家掌握FCN的基本投资原理和交易技巧。</p><p></p><p>从科普入门，到深入了解FCN的风险和收益，再到学会亲自在APP上实操交易，本门课程为您提供全程陪伴式教学。</p><p></p><p></p><p><strong>【课程大纲】</strong></p><p><strong>Lesson 1. FCN入门科普</strong></p><p></p><p>一：FCN是什么？</p><p>二：FCN的优势？</p><p>三：FCN有哪些底层资产？</p><p></p><p><strong>Lesson 2.解锁FCN的投资潜力</strong></p><p></p><p>一：FCN如何挂钩多只股票？</p><p>二：FCN与其他金融工具的比较（期权、雪球）</p><p></p><p><strong>Lesson 3. FCN的风险和收益</strong></p><p></p><p>一：FCN的收益受什么因素影响</p><p>二：FCN的风险</p><p>三：FCN的收益计算示例&amp;实例</p><p></p><p><strong>Lesson 4.FCN实操交易-手把手教你如何买卖</strong></p><p></p><p>一：FCN的产品界面怎么看</p><p>二：如何询价？</p><p></p><p><strong>【声明】</strong></p><p>结构化票据可能涉及金融衍生工具，具有特定的产品风险。投资者应仔细审阅产品资料和条款细则，知悉产品详情及风险披露。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。</p>","url":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e85bb1c8b27fbde117c46abea08418b2","link":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNCollege&page=%2Fcollege%2Fcourse&rndata=%7B%22gid%22%3A%22C20231011073518216%22%7D","material":{"gid":"20231102030827297","title":"Lesson 2.解锁FCN的投资潜力","url":"","desc":"","duration":"","content_type":2,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9ba683985e1ecda4a78382eaab88669","source_type":2,"extra":"{\"relate_type\": 0, \"post_id\": 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to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/495174837739720","repostId":"495165708275960","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":495165708275960,"gmtCreate":1761898083766,"gmtModify":1761900018758,"author":{"id":"36989258284800","authorId":"36989258284800","name":"小虎老师","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/6e9d88ae16a2b401169a727cf1457404","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36989258284800","authorIdStr":"36989258284800"},"themes":[],"title":"💰“拆”声一响，黄金万两？Netflix、ServiceNow公告拆股，“捡钱”还是“接盘”？","htmlText":"一、拆股=撒钱？Netflix，Servicesnow该关注什么？本周 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a> &amp; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> 相继宣布拆股，引得市场关注。具体公告信息及计划如下：公司比例公告日关键时间节点状态<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a>1拆52025-10-29特别股东大会 2025-12-05（批准日）待股东批准<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a>1拆102025-10-30登记日 11-10、配股 11-14、生效 11-17已获董事会最终授权，生效倒计时交易提示： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a> : 若12-5通过，预计12-12盘后配股、12-15生效；公告→批准窗口仅37天，短线资金已提前潜伏，注意回调风险。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> : 拆后流动性提升，期权链将重新挂牌；历史回测大盘股拆后5日平均+1.8%，但当日高开低走概率54%，宜等首15分钟缺口回补再低吸。小虎老师提示：拆股=“基本面自信”的信号弹，要all in？！把“拆股”翻译成散户语言就是：公司把1张100元换成10张10元，钱包里的钱一分没少，但“张数”瞬间爆棚，单价瞬间亲民。心理门槛砍半：假设单价从800→80，散户下单不手抖，成交量立刻放大。期权流动性爆表：低价股更容易做Cover Call、Cash-Secured Pu","listText":"一、拆股=撒钱？Netflix，Servicesnow该关注什么？本周 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a> &amp; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> 相继宣布拆股，引得市场关注。具体公告信息及计划如下：公司比例公告日关键时间节点状态<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a>1拆52025-10-29特别股东大会 2025-12-05（批准日）待股东批准<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a>1拆102025-10-30登记日 11-10、配股 11-14、生效 11-17已获董事会最终授权，生效倒计时交易提示： <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">$ServiceNow(NOW)$</a> : 若12-5通过，预计12-12盘后配股、12-15生效；公告→批准窗口仅37天，短线资金已提前潜伏，注意回调风险。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a> : 拆后流动性提升，期权链将重新挂牌；历史回测大盘股拆后5日平均+1.8%，但当日高开低走概率54%，宜等首15分钟缺口回补再低吸。小虎老师提示：拆股=“基本面自信”的信号弹，要all in？！把“拆股”翻译成散户语言就是：公司把1张100元换成10张10元，钱包里的钱一分没少，但“张数”瞬间爆棚，单价瞬间亲民。心理门槛砍半：假设单价从800→80，散户下单不手抖，成交量立刻放大。期权流动性爆表：低价股更容易做Cover Call、Cash-Secured Pu","text":"一、拆股=撒钱？Netflix，Servicesnow该关注什么？本周 $ServiceNow(NOW)$ & $奈飞(NFLX)$ 相继宣布拆股，引得市场关注。具体公告信息及计划如下：公司比例公告日关键时间节点状态$ServiceNow(NOW)$1拆52025-10-29特别股东大会 2025-12-05（批准日）待股东批准$奈飞(NFLX)$1拆102025-10-30登记日 11-10、配股 11-14、生效 11-17已获董事会最终授权，生效倒计时交易提示： $ServiceNow(NOW)$ : 若12-5通过，预计12-12盘后配股、12-15生效；公告→批准窗口仅37天，短线资金已提前潜伏，注意回调风险。 $奈飞(NFLX)$ : 拆后流动性提升，期权链将重新挂牌；历史回测大盘股拆后5日平均+1.8%，但当日高开低走概率54%，宜等首15分钟缺口回补再低吸。小虎老师提示：拆股=“基本面自信”的信号弹，要all in？！把“拆股”翻译成散户语言就是：公司把1张100元换成10张10元，钱包里的钱一分没少，但“张数”瞬间爆棚，单价瞬间亲民。心理门槛砍半：假设单价从800→80，散户下单不手抖，成交量立刻放大。期权流动性爆表：低价股更容易做Cover Call、Cash-Secured Pu","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b66989207da9ba8e0e8ee381e37930b"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/495165708275960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1597,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":494769877610624,"gmtCreate":1761824393504,"gmtModify":1761824395506,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 我可以投票吗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a> 我可以投票吗","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 我可以投票吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/494769877610624","repostId":"2578628831","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2578628831","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1761575293,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2578628831?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-27 22:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉董事会主席公开呼吁支持马斯克“史上最大”薪酬方案","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2578628831","media":"智通财经","summary":"在下周股东大会投票前夕，特斯拉(TSLA.US)董事会主席Robyn Denholm公开呼吁股东无视投票顾问机构、工会与公司治理团体的反对意见，投票通过CEO马斯克的薪酬方案。该薪酬方案以马斯克未来1","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在下周股东大会投票前夕，特斯拉(TSLA.US)董事会主席Robyn Denholm公开呼吁股东无视投票顾问机构、工会与公司治理团体的反对意见，投票通过CEO马斯克的薪酬方案。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该薪酬方案以马斯克未来10年达成极高目标为前提，包括将公司市值提升至8.5万亿美元、并推动特斯拉无人出租车(Robotaxi)业务落地扩张。一旦业绩达成，马斯克将获得最高达1万亿美元的股票激励(分12个阶段发放)，其公司投票权将升至约25%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Denholm周一接受采访时直言：“你们希望留住马斯克继续担任CEO，并激励他将特斯拉变成全球自动化解决方案领导者和最有价值公司吗？”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">马斯克曾在三季报电话会上表示不安：“我不希望打造出一个机器人军团后，仅因ISS和Glass Lewis的建议被赶出公司。”他批评称，被动指数基金往往跟踪ISS与Glass Lewis的意见，“他们过去就多次给出灾难性建议”。(两家主要代理投票顾问机构ISS和Glass Lewis都建议股东对马斯克薪酬方案与特斯拉涉xAI的相关投票案投下反对票)</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Denholm在股东信中同样指责称，这些代理顾问“不适用于像特斯拉这样的公司”。她写道：“他们套用标准化、平均公司模型，但特斯拉从不是常规公司，我们给股东带来的是39,000%的上市回报。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这一极具争议的薪酬案将于11月6日年会提交投票，结果或将决定特斯拉未来十年的权力结构与增长路径。</p></body></html>","source":"live_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉董事会主席公开呼吁支持马斯克“史上最大”薪酬方案\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-27 22:28 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在下周股东大会投票前夕，特斯拉(TSLA.US)董事会主席Robyn Denholm公开呼吁股东无视投票顾问机构、工会与公司治理团体的反对意见，投票通过CEO马斯克的薪酬方案。该薪酬方案以马斯克未来10年达成极高目标为前提，包括将公司市值提升至8.5万亿美元、并推动特斯拉无人出租车(Robotaxi)业务落地扩张。一旦业绩达成，马斯克将获得最高达1万亿美元的股票激励(分12个阶段发放)，其公司...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/072c968b365f388646563804246ec367","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/immediately.html?type=usstock","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2578628831","content_text":"在下周股东大会投票前夕，特斯拉(TSLA.US)董事会主席Robyn Denholm公开呼吁股东无视投票顾问机构、工会与公司治理团体的反对意见，投票通过CEO马斯克的薪酬方案。该薪酬方案以马斯克未来10年达成极高目标为前提，包括将公司市值提升至8.5万亿美元、并推动特斯拉无人出租车(Robotaxi)业务落地扩张。一旦业绩达成，马斯克将获得最高达1万亿美元的股票激励(分12个阶段发放)，其公司投票权将升至约25%。Denholm周一接受采访时直言：“你们希望留住马斯克继续担任CEO，并激励他将特斯拉变成全球自动化解决方案领导者和最有价值公司吗？”马斯克曾在三季报电话会上表示不安：“我不希望打造出一个机器人军团后，仅因ISS和Glass Lewis的建议被赶出公司。”他批评称，被动指数基金往往跟踪ISS与Glass Lewis的意见，“他们过去就多次给出灾难性建议”。(两家主要代理投票顾问机构ISS和Glass Lewis都建议股东对马斯克薪酬方案与特斯拉涉xAI的相关投票案投下反对票)Denholm在股东信中同样指责称，这些代理顾问“不适用于像特斯拉这样的公司”。她写道：“他们套用标准化、平均公司模型，但特斯拉从不是常规公司，我们给股东带来的是39,000%的上市回报。”这一极具争议的薪酬案将于11月6日年会提交投票，结果或将决定特斯拉未来十年的权力结构与增长路径。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":491517030867040,"gmtCreate":1761020564850,"gmtModify":1761020567152,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/491517030867040","repostId":"490062423605512","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":490062423605512,"gmtCreate":1760625060000,"gmtModify":1760661945063,"author":{"id":"3524105790854316","authorId":"3524105790854316","name":"港股挖掘机","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ad7f6521dbd218dc1b2d938da24ac61","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3524105790854316","authorIdStr":"3524105790854316"},"themes":[],"title":"瑞银深度：美国倒逼中国芯片国产化，实现长期技术自主可控","htmlText":"外资大行研报密集覆盖中国科技公司。 瑞银在近期发布的一篇深度研究报告中称，随着美国出口管制收紧，中国芯片国产化对于构建具备韧性的人工智能生态系统而言显得至关重要。 目前**、阿里巴巴等企业正积极研发国产芯片及配套软件，以降低对海外设备的依赖。在政府资本开支的支持下，中芯国际等晶圆代工厂正逐步克服发展挑战。瑞银报告认为，芯片国产化不仅能保障AI产业发展的连续性、增强供应链韧性，更有助于中国实现长期技术自主可控。 报告提及的重点投资标的包括寒武纪、海光信息、中芯国际等热门公司。 Part.01 芯片国产化：中国AI生态的战略基石 在美国持续收紧先进半导体出口管制的背景下，芯片国产化已成为中国强化 AI 生态系统的战略要务。当前，受美国《人工智能扩散规则》限制，中国获取英伟达H20等高性能芯片的渠道日益受限，且特朗普政府可能出台新的管制措施，在此背景下，中国科技企业正加速研发国产替代方案。 **、阿里巴巴、深度求索等企业均在加大对自主AI芯片的投入，并通过优化软件降低对海外硬件的依赖。尽管中芯国际等本土晶圆代工厂因美国对极紫外光刻及其他先进设备的管制，面临良率及工装挑战，但通过协同创新及政府支持的资本开支计划，国内半导体生态正逐步完善。 瑞银认为，这一国产化进程不仅能保障 AI 模型训练与推理的连续性，更将增强国家安全及供应链韧性。 Part.02 美国管制倒逼中国技术突破 为应对美国出口管制，中国半导体产业发展速度已显著加快，而AI创新正助力缩小技术差距。深度求索发布的V3.1模型凸显了中国本土AI生态的实力 —— 这一生态的发展得益于创新设计与合作联盟的推动。 阿里巴巴、**等头部科技企业已推出针对 AI 应用优化的新型芯片，挑战全球行业龙头；寒武纪、海光信息等本土芯片制造商也在快速扩大产能，以满足强劲的国内需求。 尽管外部压力持续，但随着中国超大规模科技企业将更多自研芯片整","listText":"外资大行研报密集覆盖中国科技公司。 瑞银在近期发布的一篇深度研究报告中称，随着美国出口管制收紧，中国芯片国产化对于构建具备韧性的人工智能生态系统而言显得至关重要。 目前**、阿里巴巴等企业正积极研发国产芯片及配套软件，以降低对海外设备的依赖。在政府资本开支的支持下，中芯国际等晶圆代工厂正逐步克服发展挑战。瑞银报告认为，芯片国产化不仅能保障AI产业发展的连续性、增强供应链韧性，更有助于中国实现长期技术自主可控。 报告提及的重点投资标的包括寒武纪、海光信息、中芯国际等热门公司。 Part.01 芯片国产化：中国AI生态的战略基石 在美国持续收紧先进半导体出口管制的背景下，芯片国产化已成为中国强化 AI 生态系统的战略要务。当前，受美国《人工智能扩散规则》限制，中国获取英伟达H20等高性能芯片的渠道日益受限，且特朗普政府可能出台新的管制措施，在此背景下，中国科技企业正加速研发国产替代方案。 **、阿里巴巴、深度求索等企业均在加大对自主AI芯片的投入，并通过优化软件降低对海外硬件的依赖。尽管中芯国际等本土晶圆代工厂因美国对极紫外光刻及其他先进设备的管制，面临良率及工装挑战，但通过协同创新及政府支持的资本开支计划，国内半导体生态正逐步完善。 瑞银认为，这一国产化进程不仅能保障 AI 模型训练与推理的连续性，更将增强国家安全及供应链韧性。 Part.02 美国管制倒逼中国技术突破 为应对美国出口管制，中国半导体产业发展速度已显著加快，而AI创新正助力缩小技术差距。深度求索发布的V3.1模型凸显了中国本土AI生态的实力 —— 这一生态的发展得益于创新设计与合作联盟的推动。 阿里巴巴、**等头部科技企业已推出针对 AI 应用优化的新型芯片，挑战全球行业龙头；寒武纪、海光信息等本土芯片制造商也在快速扩大产能，以满足强劲的国内需求。 尽管外部压力持续，但随着中国超大规模科技企业将更多自研芯片整","text":"外资大行研报密集覆盖中国科技公司。 瑞银在近期发布的一篇深度研究报告中称，随着美国出口管制收紧，中国芯片国产化对于构建具备韧性的人工智能生态系统而言显得至关重要。 目前**、阿里巴巴等企业正积极研发国产芯片及配套软件，以降低对海外设备的依赖。在政府资本开支的支持下，中芯国际等晶圆代工厂正逐步克服发展挑战。瑞银报告认为，芯片国产化不仅能保障AI产业发展的连续性、增强供应链韧性，更有助于中国实现长期技术自主可控。 报告提及的重点投资标的包括寒武纪、海光信息、中芯国际等热门公司。 Part.01 芯片国产化：中国AI生态的战略基石 在美国持续收紧先进半导体出口管制的背景下，芯片国产化已成为中国强化 AI 生态系统的战略要务。当前，受美国《人工智能扩散规则》限制，中国获取英伟达H20等高性能芯片的渠道日益受限，且特朗普政府可能出台新的管制措施，在此背景下，中国科技企业正加速研发国产替代方案。 **、阿里巴巴、深度求索等企业均在加大对自主AI芯片的投入，并通过优化软件降低对海外硬件的依赖。尽管中芯国际等本土晶圆代工厂因美国对极紫外光刻及其他先进设备的管制，面临良率及工装挑战，但通过协同创新及政府支持的资本开支计划，国内半导体生态正逐步完善。 瑞银认为，这一国产化进程不仅能保障 AI 模型训练与推理的连续性，更将增强国家安全及供应链韧性。 Part.02 美国管制倒逼中国技术突破 为应对美国出口管制，中国半导体产业发展速度已显著加快，而AI创新正助力缩小技术差距。深度求索发布的V3.1模型凸显了中国本土AI生态的实力 —— 这一生态的发展得益于创新设计与合作联盟的推动。 阿里巴巴、**等头部科技企业已推出针对 AI 应用优化的新型芯片，挑战全球行业龙头；寒武纪、海光信息等本土芯片制造商也在快速扩大产能，以满足强劲的国内需求。 尽管外部压力持续，但随着中国超大规模科技企业将更多自研芯片整","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/490062423605512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1488,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":491330125504568,"gmtCreate":1760974829007,"gmtModify":1760974830956,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/491330125504568","repostId":"2576884686","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2576884686","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1760934047,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2576884686?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-20 12:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"强有力的美元走势领先指标：美股、美债与美元指数的“共振模式”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2576884686","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"大摩研究发现，当标普500、美债收益率与美元指数出现极端共振（波动超1.25个标准差）时，可预测美元未来6个月走势。两大做空美元信号：\"金发姑娘\"情景（股市涨、美元和美债跌）成功率83%，平均跌3.3%，英镑表现最佳；\"全面上涨\"情景（三者齐涨）成功率73%，平均跌2.7%，澳元领涨。2025年已出现多次此类信号，显示市场波动处历史高位。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>大摩研究发现，当标普500、美债收益率与美元指数出现极端共振（波动超1.25个标准差）时，可预测美元未来6个月走势。两大做空美元信号：&#34;金发姑娘&#34;情景（股市涨、美元和美债跌）成功率83%，平均跌3.3%，英镑表现最佳；&#34;全面上涨&#34;情景（三者齐涨）成功率73%，平均跌2.7%，澳元领涨。2025年已出现多次此类信号，显示市场波动处历史高位。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利最新研究指出，当标普500、美债收益率与美元指数三者出现极端“共振”时，往往预示美元强势周期即将反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">10月20日，据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在最新研报中称，当标普500指数、美元指数和10年期美债收益率出现极端“共振”时，美元在未来6个月内往往呈现可预测的走势模式。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该行策略师Molly Nickolin等指出，通过分析过去25年中，标普500指数、10年期美债收益率和美元指数三者同时发生极端波动（超过1.25个标准差）的交易日，发现两个明确指向美元在未来六个月内走弱的强力信号。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该行称，历史数据表明，在&#34;金发姑娘&#34;情景(股市大涨超过1.25个标准差、美元和美债收益率同时下跌超过1.25个标准差)，以及“全面上涨”情景（标普500指数、美元指数和10年期美债收益率三者同时上涨超过1.25个标准差）出现后，做空美元回报率明显。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2273b960302bf790224026ad8eb5227\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"550\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩强调，在“金发姑娘”场景下，英镑表现最佳可能反映软着陆预期；而“全面上涨”情景后澳元领涨，则可能暗示美国例外论消退、全球经济追赶的过程。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得注意的是，2025年已出现多次符合这些信号的交易日，占历史总数的约7%，显示当前市场波动性处于历史高位。</p><h2 id=\"id_3337625830\" style=\"text-align: left;\">“金发姑娘”情景：最可靠的做空美元信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">摩根士丹利团队将标准差超过±1.25定义为&#34;超大幅度&#34;波动，采用10年滚动窗口进行计算。在标普500、美元指数和10年期美债收益率三大指标的八种可能组合中，“金发姑娘”表现最为突出。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一组合的具体特征是:<strong>标普500指数标准差≥+1.25，美元指数标准差≤-1.25，10年期美债收益率标准差≤-1.25</strong>。在过去25年中，该组合共出现12次，平均导致美元指数在6个月内下跌3.3%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec01da2012e4112249a0c4541e23ead1\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"514\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">统计检验显示该信号的t统计量为-2.8，p值约0.02，表明这一组合与美元走弱之间存在高度一致的因果关系。从击中率来看，12次出现后有<strong>83%</strong>的情况下美元在6个月内走弱，远高于其他组合。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97ad9360964e1db48f961d641aa99f18\" tg-width=\"576\" tg-height=\"552\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩称，历史数据显示，在&#34;金发姑娘&#34;情景出现后，做多英镑兑美元产生最佳回报。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c26a23939cb5ef326447fb6d62f4ddd5\" tg-width=\"594\" tg-height=\"599\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这可能是因为该信号暗示&#34;软着陆&#34;情景——美股上涨反映经济韧性，但美元和美债收益率下跌意味着美联储政策放松预期升温，有利于英镑等发达市场货币。</p><h2 id=\"id_1637278005\" style=\"text-align: left;\">“全面上涨”情景：第二可靠的做空美元信号</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“全面上涨”情景指标普500指数、美元指数和10年期美债收益率三者同时上涨超过1.25个标准差。这一组合在过去25年中出现26次，频率约为&#34;金发姑娘&#34;情景的两倍。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">虽然出现频率更高，但该情景的可靠性略逊一筹。数据显示,在&#34;全面上涨&#34;情景后的6个月内，美元指数平均下跌2.7%，t统计量为-2.0(p值约0.06)，表明存在中等程度的证据支持美元随后走弱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7372b881e561b85e02d2355ccf3520fc\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"540\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">该策略的成功率为<strong>73%</strong>——在26次出现中，有19次美元在随后6个月内下跌。从货币对表现看，澳元兑美元在&#34;全面上涨&#34;情景后收益最佳。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7920c55266fbe35dd919f9770b2bfb1e\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"521\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">研究认为，这可能反映了&#34;美国例外主义&#34;后的全球经济追赶阶段：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">三项指标同时大幅上涨通常意味着美国经济和市场表现极度强劲，但随后其他地区经济开始复苏，缩小与美国的差距，导致美元回吐涨幅。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">大摩称，澳元作为典型的风险货币和大宗商品货币，在全球经济同步复苏阶段往往表现出色。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df08ea54f48753c6a00ff6255423c431\" tg-width=\"573\" tg-height=\"589\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>强有力的美元走势领先指标：美股、美债与美元指数的“共振模式”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n强有力的美元走势领先指标：美股、美债与美元指数的“共振模式”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-20 12:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757483><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>大摩研究发现，当标普500、美债收益率与美元指数出现极端共振（波动超1.25个标准差）时，可预测美元未来6个月走势。两大做空美元信号：\"金发姑娘\"情景（股市涨、美元和美债跌）成功率83%，平均跌3.3%，英镑表现最佳；\"全面上涨\"情景（三者齐涨）成功率73%，平均跌2.7%，澳元领涨。2025年已出现多次此类信号，显示市场波动处历史高位。摩根士丹利最新研究指出，当标普500、美债收益率与美元指数...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757483\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757483","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2576884686","content_text":"大摩研究发现，当标普500、美债收益率与美元指数出现极端共振（波动超1.25个标准差）时，可预测美元未来6个月走势。两大做空美元信号：\"金发姑娘\"情景（股市涨、美元和美债跌）成功率83%，平均跌3.3%，英镑表现最佳；\"全面上涨\"情景（三者齐涨）成功率73%，平均跌2.7%，澳元领涨。2025年已出现多次此类信号，显示市场波动处历史高位。摩根士丹利最新研究指出，当标普500、美债收益率与美元指数三者出现极端“共振”时，往往预示美元强势周期即将反转。10月20日，据追风交易台消息，摩根士丹利在最新研报中称，当标普500指数、美元指数和10年期美债收益率出现极端“共振”时，美元在未来6个月内往往呈现可预测的走势模式。该行策略师Molly Nickolin等指出，通过分析过去25年中，标普500指数、10年期美债收益率和美元指数三者同时发生极端波动（超过1.25个标准差）的交易日，发现两个明确指向美元在未来六个月内走弱的强力信号。该行称，历史数据表明，在\"金发姑娘\"情景(股市大涨超过1.25个标准差、美元和美债收益率同时下跌超过1.25个标准差)，以及“全面上涨”情景（标普500指数、美元指数和10年期美债收益率三者同时上涨超过1.25个标准差）出现后，做空美元回报率明显。大摩强调，在“金发姑娘”场景下，英镑表现最佳可能反映软着陆预期；而“全面上涨”情景后澳元领涨，则可能暗示美国例外论消退、全球经济追赶的过程。值得注意的是，2025年已出现多次符合这些信号的交易日，占历史总数的约7%，显示当前市场波动性处于历史高位。“金发姑娘”情景：最可靠的做空美元信号摩根士丹利团队将标准差超过±1.25定义为\"超大幅度\"波动，采用10年滚动窗口进行计算。在标普500、美元指数和10年期美债收益率三大指标的八种可能组合中，“金发姑娘”表现最为突出。这一组合的具体特征是:标普500指数标准差≥+1.25，美元指数标准差≤-1.25，10年期美债收益率标准差≤-1.25。在过去25年中，该组合共出现12次，平均导致美元指数在6个月内下跌3.3%。统计检验显示该信号的t统计量为-2.8，p值约0.02，表明这一组合与美元走弱之间存在高度一致的因果关系。从击中率来看，12次出现后有83%的情况下美元在6个月内走弱，远高于其他组合。大摩称，历史数据显示，在\"金发姑娘\"情景出现后，做多英镑兑美元产生最佳回报。这可能是因为该信号暗示\"软着陆\"情景——美股上涨反映经济韧性，但美元和美债收益率下跌意味着美联储政策放松预期升温，有利于英镑等发达市场货币。“全面上涨”情景：第二可靠的做空美元信号“全面上涨”情景指标普500指数、美元指数和10年期美债收益率三者同时上涨超过1.25个标准差。这一组合在过去25年中出现26次，频率约为\"金发姑娘\"情景的两倍。虽然出现频率更高，但该情景的可靠性略逊一筹。数据显示,在\"全面上涨\"情景后的6个月内，美元指数平均下跌2.7%，t统计量为-2.0(p值约0.06)，表明存在中等程度的证据支持美元随后走弱。该策略的成功率为73%——在26次出现中，有19次美元在随后6个月内下跌。从货币对表现看，澳元兑美元在\"全面上涨\"情景后收益最佳。研究认为，这可能反映了\"美国例外主义\"后的全球经济追赶阶段：三项指标同时大幅上涨通常意味着美国经济和市场表现极度强劲，但随后其他地区经济开始复苏，缩小与美国的差距，导致美元回吐涨幅。大摩称，澳元作为典型的风险货币和大宗商品货币，在全球经济同步复苏阶段往往表现出色。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":1.1,".SPX":1.1,".DJI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1757,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":489997191847992,"gmtCreate":1760655583151,"gmtModify":1760655585863,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还是不敢空美股，突然有什么创新利好又是拉爆的节奏","listText":"还是不敢空美股，突然有什么创新利好又是拉爆的节奏","text":"还是不敢空美股，突然有什么创新利好又是拉爆的节奏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/489997191847992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1527,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":489995892858912,"gmtCreate":1760655473062,"gmtModify":1760655475941,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"还是不敢空美股，虽说美国科技股市盈率高，但比赚钱能力，怎么也比大A科技股市盈率低，","listText":"还是不敢空美股，虽说美国科技股市盈率高，但比赚钱能力，怎么也比大A科技股市盈率低，","text":"还是不敢空美股，虽说美国科技股市盈率高，但比赚钱能力，怎么也比大A科技股市盈率低，","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/489995892858912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":489813506327240,"gmtCreate":1760610389449,"gmtModify":1760610391585,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/489813506327240","repostId":"2575713849","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2575713849","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1760602508,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2575713849?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-16 16:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"智通AH统计|10月16日","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2575713849","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，截止10月16日收盘，东北电气、弘业期货、浙江世宝分列AH溢价率前三位，溢价率分别为770.97%、243.57%、235.64%；宁德时代、恒瑞医药、招商银行分列AH溢价率末三位，溢价率分别为-17.41%、-2.37%、1.87%。其中晨鸣纸业、金力永磁、南京熊猫电子股份的偏离值位居前三，分别为23.69%、22.33%、21.48%；另外，东北电气、上海电气、中国南方航空股份的偏离值位居后三，分别为-40.29%、-24.14%、-12.55%。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，截止10月16日收盘，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00042\">东北电气</a>(00042)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/001236\">弘业期货</a>(03678)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002703\">浙江世宝</a>(01057)分列AH溢价率前三位，溢价率分别为770.97%、243.57%、235.64%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a>(03750)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600276\">恒瑞医药</a>(01276)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">招商银行</a>(03968)分列AH溢价率末三位，溢价率分别为-17.41%、-2.37%、1.87%。其中<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01812\">晨鸣纸业</a>(01812)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300748\">金力永磁</a>(06680)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00553\">南京熊猫电子股份</a>(00553)的偏离值位居前三，分别为23.69%、22.33%、21.48%；另外，东北电气(00042)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601727\">上海电气</a>(02727)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01055\">中国南方航空股份</a>(01055)的偏离值位居后三，分别为-40.29%、-24.14%、-12.55%。</p><p>前十大AH股溢价率排行</p> <table cellspacing=\"1\"> <tr> <th width=\"20%\">股票名称</th> <th width=\"20%\">H股(港元)</th> <th width=\"20%\">A股</th> <th width=\"20%\">溢价率↓</th> <th width=\"20%\">偏离值</th> </tr> <tr><td>东北电气(00042)</td><td>0.310</td><td>2.25</td><td>770.97%</td><td>-40.29%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03678\">弘业期货</a>(03678)</td><td>3.810</td><td>10.93</td><td>243.57%</td><td>15.08%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01057\">浙江世宝</a>(01057)</td><td>5.050</td><td>14.15</td><td>235.64%</td><td>16.10%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02218\">安德利果汁</a>(02218)</td><td>16.180</td><td>44.58</td><td>230.04%</td><td>2.65%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01033\">中石化油服</a>(01033)</td><td>0.760</td><td>2.07</td><td>226.32%</td><td>5.46%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688505\">复旦张江</a>(01349)</td><td>3.380</td><td>9.12</td><td>223.08%</td><td>12.74%</td></tr><tr><td>晨鸣纸业(01812)</td><td>0.780</td><td>2.09</td><td>220.51%</td><td>23.69%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600876\">凯盛新能</a>(01108)</td><td>4.210</td><td>10.95</td><td>211.64%</td><td>14.07%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00187\">京城机电股份</a>(00187)</td><td>4.720</td><td>11.91</td><td>202.33%</td><td>1.69%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600775\">南京熊猫</a>电子股份(00553)</td><td>4.970</td><td>12</td><td>189.13%</td><td>21.48%</td></tr> </table> <div></div><p>后十大AH股溢价率排行</p> <table cellspacing=\"1\"> <tr> <th width=\"20%\">股票名称</th> <th width=\"20%\">H股(港元)</th> <th width=\"20%\">A股</th> <th width=\"20%\">溢价率↑</th> <th width=\"20%\">偏离值</th> </tr> <tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03750\">宁德时代</a>(03750)</td><td>535.500</td><td>369.22</td><td>-17.41%</td><td>-3.52%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01276\">恒瑞医药</a>(01276)</td><td>82.000</td><td>66.84</td><td>-2.37%</td><td>0.45%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03968\">招商银行</a>(03968)</td><td>49.300</td><td>41.93</td><td>1.87%</td><td>-3.39%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000333\">美的集团</a>(00300)</td><td>82.000</td><td>73.18</td><td>6.90%</td><td>0.48%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600660\">福耀玻璃</a>(03606)</td><td>71.600</td><td>66.88</td><td>11.89%</td><td>-1.38%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601899\">紫金矿业</a>(02899)</td><td>33.020</td><td>30.92</td><td>12.17%</td><td>6.26%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000338\">潍柴动力</a>(02338)</td><td>15.460</td><td>14.65</td><td>13.52%</td><td>-3.65%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603259\">药明康德</a>(02359)</td><td>106.000</td><td>101.06</td><td>14.20%</td><td>-0.08%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600585\">海螺水泥</a>(00914)</td><td>25.000</td><td>24.23</td><td>16.08%</td><td>-2.99%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600016\">民生银行</a>(01988)</td><td>4.180</td><td>4.06</td><td>16.27%</td><td>-2.35%</td></tr> </table> <div></div><p>前十大AH股偏离值排行</p> <table cellspacing=\"1\"> <tr> <th width=\"20%\">股票名称</th> <th width=\"20%\">H股(港元)</th> <th width=\"20%\">A股</th> <th width=\"20%\">溢价率</th> <th width=\"20%\">偏离值↓</th> </tr> <tr><td>晨鸣纸业(01812)</td><td>0.780</td><td>2.09</td><td>220.51%</td><td>23.69%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06680\">金力永磁</a>(06680)</td><td>24.260</td><td>43.27</td><td>113.64%</td><td>22.33%</td></tr><tr><td>南京熊猫电子股份(00553)</td><td>4.970</td><td>12</td><td>189.13%</td><td>21.48%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600635\">大众公用</a>(01635)</td><td>3.740</td><td>6.73</td><td>115.51%</td><td>17.37%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06869\">长飞光纤光缆</a>(06869)</td><td>40.640</td><td>85.66</td><td>152.46%</td><td>17.07%</td></tr><tr><td>浙江世宝(01057)</td><td>5.050</td><td>14.15</td><td>235.64%</td><td>16.10%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002865\">钧达股份</a>(02865)</td><td>18.950</td><td>42.49</td><td>168.55%</td><td>15.61%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002803\">吉宏股份</a>(02603)</td><td>15.700</td><td>18.29</td><td>39.55%</td><td>15.49%</td></tr><tr><td>弘业期货(03678)</td><td>3.810</td><td>10.93</td><td>243.57%</td><td>15.08%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01108\">凯盛新能</a>(01108)</td><td>4.210</td><td>10.95</td><td>211.64%</td><td>14.07%</td></tr> </table> <div></div><p>后十大AH股偏离值排行</p> <table cellspacing=\"1\"> <tr> <th width=\"20%\">股票名称</th> <th width=\"20%\">H股(港元)</th> <th width=\"20%\">A股</th> <th width=\"20%\">溢价率</th> <th width=\"20%\">偏离值↑</th> </tr> <tr><td>东北电气(00042)</td><td>0.310</td><td>2.25</td><td>770.97%</td><td>-40.29%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02727\">上海电气</a>(02727)</td><td>4.760</td><td>9.74</td><td>145.17%</td><td>-24.14%</td></tr><tr><td>中国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZNH\">南方航空</a>股份(01055)</td><td>4.400</td><td>6.26</td><td>70.45%</td><td>-12.55%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601598\">中国外运</a>(00598)</td><td>5.220</td><td>6.28</td><td>44.06%</td><td>-12.47%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06826\">昊海生物科技</a>(06826)</td><td>27.160</td><td>50.98</td><td>124.82%</td><td>-9.98%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600026\">中远海能</a>(01138)</td><td>9.620</td><td>12.52</td><td>55.93%</td><td>-8.85%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00107\">四川成渝高速公路</a>(00107)</td><td>5.000</td><td>5.76</td><td>38.00%</td><td>-8.72%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00670\">中国东方航空股份</a>(00670)</td><td>3.540</td><td>4.45</td><td>50.56%</td><td>-8.17%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601728\">中国电信</a>(00728)</td><td>5.750</td><td>6.83</td><td>42.26%</td><td>-7.04%</td></tr><tr><td><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03996\">中国能源建设</a>(03996)</td><td>1.260</td><td>2.48</td><td>135.71%</td><td>-6.57%</td></tr> </table> <div></div><p>备注：以上数据由智通机器人根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00388\">港交所</a>数据，经过人工智能运算后自动生成，并不保证数据100%准确；偏离值为当前溢价率与该股过去30天平均溢价率的差值。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>智通AH统计|10月16日</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n智通AH统计|10月16日\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-16 16:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1355848.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，截止10月16日收盘，东北电气(00042)、弘业期货(03678)、浙江世宝(01057)分列AH溢价率前三位，溢价率分别为770.97%、243.57%、235.64%；宁德时代(03750)、恒瑞医药(01276)、招商银行(03968)分列AH溢价率末三位，溢价率分别为-17.41%、-2.37%、1.87%。其中晨鸣纸业(01812)、金力永磁(06680)、南京熊猫...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1355848.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159982":"中证500","399300":"沪深300","01349":"复旦张江","06869":"长飞光纤光缆","01108":"凯盛新能","00107":"四川成渝高速公路","00553":"南京熊猫电子股份","00914":"海螺水泥","02218":"安德利果汁","02359":"药明康德","00300":"美的集团","HK0000306685.HKD":"TAIKANG KAITAI CHINA NEW OPPORTUNITIES FUND \"A\" (HKD) INC","03750":"宁德时代","LU0244354667.USD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" ACC","00670":"中国东方航空股份","BK1554":"光伏太阳能股","00598":"中国外运","01812":"晨鸣纸业","01635":"大众公用","03968":"招商银行","02603":"吉宏股份","01276":"恒瑞医药","00728":"中国电信","LU1719994722.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","03996":"中国能源建设","03606":"福耀玻璃","01057":"浙江世宝","06680":"金力永磁","LU0791591158.USD":"ALLSPRING  EMERGING MARKTES EQUITY INCOME \"I\" (USD) ACC","03143":"华夏香港银行股","01033":"中石化油服","00042":"东北电气","03678":"弘业期货","06826":"昊海生物科技","IE0031814852.USD":"FSSA GREATER CHINA GROWTH \"I\" (USD) ACC","02865":"钧达股份","BK1505":"一带一路","LU0463099449.HKD":"SCHRODER ISF CHINA OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0348816934.USD":"ALLIANZ TOTAL RETURN ASIAN EQUITY \"AT\" (USD)","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","01988":"民生银行","LU0516423174.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA FOCUS EQUITIES \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU1152091168.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"PM\" INC","02727":"上海电气","02338":"潍柴动力","01055":"中国南方航空股份","01138":"中远海能","00187":"京城机电股份"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1355848.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2575713849","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，截止10月16日收盘，东北电气(00042)、弘业期货(03678)、浙江世宝(01057)分列AH溢价率前三位，溢价率分别为770.97%、243.57%、235.64%；宁德时代(03750)、恒瑞医药(01276)、招商银行(03968)分列AH溢价率末三位，溢价率分别为-17.41%、-2.37%、1.87%。其中晨鸣纸业(01812)、金力永磁(06680)、南京熊猫电子股份(00553)的偏离值位居前三，分别为23.69%、22.33%、21.48%；另外，东北电气(00042)、上海电气(02727)、中国南方航空股份(01055)的偏离值位居后三，分别为-40.29%、-24.14%、-12.55%。前十大AH股溢价率排行   股票名称 H股(港元) A股 溢价率↓ 偏离值  东北电气(00042)0.3102.25770.97%-40.29%弘业期货(03678)3.81010.93243.57%15.08%浙江世宝(01057)5.05014.15235.64%16.10%安德利果汁(02218)16.18044.58230.04%2.65%中石化油服(01033)0.7602.07226.32%5.46%复旦张江(01349)3.3809.12223.08%12.74%晨鸣纸业(01812)0.7802.09220.51%23.69%凯盛新能(01108)4.21010.95211.64%14.07%京城机电股份(00187)4.72011.91202.33%1.69%南京熊猫电子股份(00553)4.97012189.13%21.48%  后十大AH股溢价率排行   股票名称 H股(港元) A股 溢价率↑ 偏离值  宁德时代(03750)535.500369.22-17.41%-3.52%恒瑞医药(01276)82.00066.84-2.37%0.45%招商银行(03968)49.30041.931.87%-3.39%美的集团(00300)82.00073.186.90%0.48%福耀玻璃(03606)71.60066.8811.89%-1.38%紫金矿业(02899)33.02030.9212.17%6.26%潍柴动力(02338)15.46014.6513.52%-3.65%药明康德(02359)106.000101.0614.20%-0.08%海螺水泥(00914)25.00024.2316.08%-2.99%民生银行(01988)4.1804.0616.27%-2.35%  前十大AH股偏离值排行   股票名称 H股(港元) A股 溢价率 偏离值↓  晨鸣纸业(01812)0.7802.09220.51%23.69%金力永磁(06680)24.26043.27113.64%22.33%南京熊猫电子股份(00553)4.97012189.13%21.48%大众公用(01635)3.7406.73115.51%17.37%长飞光纤光缆(06869)40.64085.66152.46%17.07%浙江世宝(01057)5.05014.15235.64%16.10%钧达股份(02865)18.95042.49168.55%15.61%吉宏股份(02603)15.70018.2939.55%15.49%弘业期货(03678)3.81010.93243.57%15.08%凯盛新能(01108)4.21010.95211.64%14.07%  后十大AH股偏离值排行   股票名称 H股(港元) A股 溢价率 偏离值↑  东北电气(00042)0.3102.25770.97%-40.29%上海电气(02727)4.7609.74145.17%-24.14%中国南方航空股份(01055)4.4006.2670.45%-12.55%中国外运(00598)5.2206.2844.06%-12.47%昊海生物科技(06826)27.16050.98124.82%-9.98%中远海能(01138)9.62012.5255.93%-8.85%四川成渝高速公路(00107)5.0005.7638.00%-8.72%中国东方航空股份(00670)3.5404.4550.56%-8.17%中国电信(00728)5.7506.8342.26%-7.04%中国能源建设(03996)1.2602.48135.71%-6.57%  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ARK认为标准差和贝塔系数等传统风险指标，已无法反映当今投资者面临的真正威胁——即技术过时、固步自封以及难以适应技术变革。 在这篇文章中，副投资组合经理Dan White挑战了传统的风险框架，并提出了更具挑战性的问题： 福特真的比特斯拉更安全吗？ 英特尔的风险真的比英伟达更低吗？ 传统银行能否在去中心化金融的冲击下生存下来？ 如果你只是根据已经发生的事情来衡量风险，你可能会错过价值正在被创造和破坏的地方。 接下来就看下文章的全文： 若询问大多数投资者如何定义风险，他们会指出一个数字——标准差，这一基于历史数据的统计指标衡量的是股票价格在指定时期内相对于其均值的波动幅度。在我们看来，这一数字忽视了风险故事中一个关键要素：持有可能正变得无关紧要的企业的股票。 事实上，资产配置者应警惕将波动性与风险混为一谈，不仅因为在重大颠覆时期波动性会上升，还因为标准差是基于较短时间段计算的，这可能与长期财富积累的目标不相容。换言之，过去价格稳定的确定性并不能保证安全，而我们认为，与颠覆相关的波动性并不等同于脆弱性。 事实上，一定程度上，股票价格的波动可能反映出颠覆性潜力，因为市场正在试图预测一家公司的未来价值。不过，市场已日益聚焦于短期。因此，标准差（作为一个回顾性统计指标）无法捕捉到决定一家公司能否挺过下一波创新浪潮的长期生存威胁。价格平稳下跌的资产可能具有风险，尽管其标准差较低。以福特与特斯拉为例：前者在统计上看似“更安全”（至少从回顾角度而言），但它在未来商业周期中是否可能被颠覆？读者清楚ARK的立场！ 在当前环境下，我们认为真正的风险并非体现在价格图表中，而是体现在公司的商业模式中。从这个角度来看，那些标准差使其在纸面上看起来“稳定”的公司可能在结构上脆弱：它们依赖于过时的系统、落后的分销技术或不再相关的监管壁垒。与此同时，那些账面","listText":"如果投资组合中“最安全”的资产反而是风险最高的呢？ ARK认为标准差和贝塔系数等传统风险指标，已无法反映当今投资者面临的真正威胁——即技术过时、固步自封以及难以适应技术变革。 在这篇文章中，副投资组合经理Dan White挑战了传统的风险框架，并提出了更具挑战性的问题： 福特真的比特斯拉更安全吗？ 英特尔的风险真的比英伟达更低吗？ 传统银行能否在去中心化金融的冲击下生存下来？ 如果你只是根据已经发生的事情来衡量风险，你可能会错过价值正在被创造和破坏的地方。 接下来就看下文章的全文： 若询问大多数投资者如何定义风险，他们会指出一个数字——标准差，这一基于历史数据的统计指标衡量的是股票价格在指定时期内相对于其均值的波动幅度。在我们看来，这一数字忽视了风险故事中一个关键要素：持有可能正变得无关紧要的企业的股票。 事实上，资产配置者应警惕将波动性与风险混为一谈，不仅因为在重大颠覆时期波动性会上升，还因为标准差是基于较短时间段计算的，这可能与长期财富积累的目标不相容。换言之，过去价格稳定的确定性并不能保证安全，而我们认为，与颠覆相关的波动性并不等同于脆弱性。 事实上，一定程度上，股票价格的波动可能反映出颠覆性潜力，因为市场正在试图预测一家公司的未来价值。不过，市场已日益聚焦于短期。因此，标准差（作为一个回顾性统计指标）无法捕捉到决定一家公司能否挺过下一波创新浪潮的长期生存威胁。价格平稳下跌的资产可能具有风险，尽管其标准差较低。以福特与特斯拉为例：前者在统计上看似“更安全”（至少从回顾角度而言），但它在未来商业周期中是否可能被颠覆？读者清楚ARK的立场！ 在当前环境下，我们认为真正的风险并非体现在价格图表中，而是体现在公司的商业模式中。从这个角度来看，那些标准差使其在纸面上看起来“稳定”的公司可能在结构上脆弱：它们依赖于过时的系统、落后的分销技术或不再相关的监管壁垒。与此同时，那些账面","text":"如果投资组合中“最安全”的资产反而是风险最高的呢？ ARK认为标准差和贝塔系数等传统风险指标，已无法反映当今投资者面临的真正威胁——即技术过时、固步自封以及难以适应技术变革。 在这篇文章中，副投资组合经理Dan White挑战了传统的风险框架，并提出了更具挑战性的问题： 福特真的比特斯拉更安全吗？ 英特尔的风险真的比英伟达更低吗？ 传统银行能否在去中心化金融的冲击下生存下来？ 如果你只是根据已经发生的事情来衡量风险，你可能会错过价值正在被创造和破坏的地方。 接下来就看下文章的全文： 若询问大多数投资者如何定义风险，他们会指出一个数字——标准差，这一基于历史数据的统计指标衡量的是股票价格在指定时期内相对于其均值的波动幅度。在我们看来，这一数字忽视了风险故事中一个关键要素：持有可能正变得无关紧要的企业的股票。 事实上，资产配置者应警惕将波动性与风险混为一谈，不仅因为在重大颠覆时期波动性会上升，还因为标准差是基于较短时间段计算的，这可能与长期财富积累的目标不相容。换言之，过去价格稳定的确定性并不能保证安全，而我们认为，与颠覆相关的波动性并不等同于脆弱性。 事实上，一定程度上，股票价格的波动可能反映出颠覆性潜力，因为市场正在试图预测一家公司的未来价值。不过，市场已日益聚焦于短期。因此，标准差（作为一个回顾性统计指标）无法捕捉到决定一家公司能否挺过下一波创新浪潮的长期生存威胁。价格平稳下跌的资产可能具有风险，尽管其标准差较低。以福特与特斯拉为例：前者在统计上看似“更安全”（至少从回顾角度而言），但它在未来商业周期中是否可能被颠覆？读者清楚ARK的立场！ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 大科技太贵了，没有一次像样的调整，风险都不算解除，只不过去回光返照罢了！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 大科技太贵了，没有一次像样的调整，风险都不算解除，只不过去回光返照罢了！","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 大科技太贵了，没有一次像样的调整，风险都不算解除，只不过去回光返照罢了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/504160058474584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":467577397678256,"gmtCreate":1755171943996,"gmtModify":1755177249134,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"几个月后，ARM将带来为gpu做AI加速的 IP core，如果技术路线不可替代，这意味着，每个GPU的营业额中，都会给ARM分一部分，业绩估值一定会有不错的表现","listText":"几个月后，ARM将带来为gpu做AI加速的 IP core，如果技术路线不可替代，这意味着，每个GPU的营业额中，都会给ARM分一部分，业绩估值一定会有不错的表现","text":"几个月后，ARM将带来为gpu做AI加速的 IP core，如果技术路线不可替代，这意味着，每个GPU的营业额中，都会给ARM分一部分，业绩估值一定会有不错的表现","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/467577397678256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3501506464598626","authorId":"3501506464598626","name":"AsyncMan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/433f1f4149b891d553398e44d4243c4c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3501506464598626","authorIdStr":"3501506464598626"},"content":"如果他做成了，就会让 NVDA 崩盘，NVDA 崩盘美股机会崩盘，那么 ARM 一样没有好结果。所以 ARM 横竖都不成","text":"如果他做成了，就会让 NVDA 崩盘，NVDA 崩盘美股机会崩盘，那么 ARM 一样没有好结果。所以 ARM 横竖都不成","html":"如果他做成了，就会让 NVDA 崩盘，NVDA 崩盘美股机会崩盘，那么 ARM 一样没有好结果。所以 ARM 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11:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"报道：供应链消息称，苹果之后，英伟达下一代GPU也将合作英特尔，以取悦特朗普","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2606527757","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"供应链人士透露，英伟达预计在2028年推出的Feynman架构平台将与英特尔合作，英伟达在合作中采用\"量少、低阶、非核心\"的合作策略。除英伟达外，苹果、谷歌、微软、AWS、高通、博通等企业也在与英特尔洽谈合作。分析认为，在政治、供应链韧性与台积电先进封装产能受限的现实下，美国芯片大厂势必启动双代工策略。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>供应链人士透露，英伟达预计在2028年推出的Feynman架构平台将与英特尔合作，英伟达在合作中采用&#34;量少、低阶、非核心&#34;的合作策略。除英伟达外，苹果、谷歌、微软、AWS、高通、博通等企业也在与英特尔洽谈合作。分析认为，在政治、供应链韧性与台积电先进封装产能受限的现实下，美国芯片大厂势必启动双代工策略。</p></blockquote><p>继<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>之后，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>也计划将部分芯片制造业务转向<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>代工。英伟达预计在2028年推出的Feynman架构平台将与英特尔合作，这是美国科技巨头在特朗普政府推动&#34;美国制造&#34;目标下调整供应链策略的最新案例。英特尔隔夜涨超3%，夜盘续涨近5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9163379f1f2f6fb34ab5b05ec19f24f\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"150\"/></p><p>据DIGITIMES周三报道，<strong>供应链人士透露，英伟达将在与英特尔的合作中采用&#34;量少、低阶、非核心&#34;的合作策略。</strong>GPU核心芯片仍由<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>代工，而I/O芯片则部分采用英特尔18A或预定2028年量产的14A制程，最后由英特尔EMIB进行先进封装。<strong>按先进封装比重计算，英特尔最高约占25%，台积电约占75%。</strong></p><p>这一转变反映出美国科技企业在政治压力、关税威胁和供应链韧性考量下，不得不从高度集中于台积电的模式转向“多源供应、分散风险”的新策略。除英伟达和苹果外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、AWS、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMCI\">超微</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>等企业也在与英特尔洽谈合作。</p><p>尽管部分订单分流至英特尔，但业界认为这对台积电&#34;利远大于弊&#34;，有助于降低垄断疑虑、释放政治压力，同时台积电仍有信心稳固高阶芯片代工大单。</p><h2 id=\"id_3992556085\">英伟达Feynman架构部分转向英特尔</h2><p>英伟达在2025年9月宣布斥资50亿美元入股英特尔后，最新规划是在Rubin系列的下一代继任者Feynman架构芯片中与英特尔合作。根据供应链消息，GPU核心芯片仍由台积电代工，I/O芯片则部分采用英特尔18A或14A制程，具体选择取决于14A后续良率量产状况。</p><p>供应链人士表示，在特朗普政府美国制造目标确立与关税压力下，美国芯片大厂早已与英特尔研议合作，但由于18A未达客户期待，合作时间点应在2028年量产的14A。英特尔执行长陈立武日前表示，目前有两家客户正在评估14A制程的具体细节。</p><p>对比14A、18A制程导入风险高，多数业者与英特尔的合作从先进封装EMIB先行。供应链业者分析，美国制造目标面临成本与良率挑战，<strong>但在政治、供应链韧性与台积电先进封装产能受限的现实下，美国芯片大厂势必启动双代工策略。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2590994264\">苹果入门级处理器重启英特尔合作</h2><p>苹果与英特尔洽谈多时的合作代工产品，应是MacBook所搭载的&#34;入门级M系列处理器&#34;，目前由台积电代工。苹果Mac系列自2006年起采用英特尔x86处理器，英特尔也在2005年于美国俄勒冈州晶圆厂特为其设立&#34;Apple Group&#34;专属产线。</p><p>2020年6月，苹果正式宣布推出<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ARM\">Arm</a>架构芯片&#34;Apple Silicon&#34;，Mac系列机种2年后全数转采自研芯片。当时苹果主要考量是扩大供应链掌握度以及整合生态系，另一关键是英特尔10纳米制程延迟恐影响Mac新机上市。</p><p>供应链业者透露，苹果3年后重启与英特尔合作的主因，仍是特朗普主导下的美国制造目标与关税冲击，其次是成本、分散单一代工制造风险及产能短缺等因素。</p><h2 id=\"id_2870727608\">台积电三层战略应对客户分流</h2><p>目前观察，苹果、英伟达都以代工风险最低的产品渐进式调整。与英特尔洽谈合作的还有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>、微软、AWS、高通、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600455\">博通</a>、超微与特斯拉等，以及掌握度最高的美国政府标案长约大单。不过，英特尔能否符合早已习惯台积电模式的科技龙头需求，变数仍大。</p><p>对台积电来说，已预见众多客户会另转往英特尔投片，但分析认为实际上&#34;利远大于弊&#34;，至少有三层战略考量：<strong>第一，可降低垄断与监管疑虑；第二，可释放美国政治压力；第三，外溢仅是&#34;非核心&#34;订单，有助于未来议价与供货。</strong></p><p>一方面替台积电在晶圆代工业市占率过高恐牵扯反垄断法的疑虑有所解套，二方面适度释出非核心订单也可减轻来自特朗普政府不断释出各种要求的压力，三方面台积电仍有信心稳固各大厂核心的高阶芯片代工大单。或许试过转单其他晶圆代工厂的客户，才会想念台积电的美好，这对于台积电未来的议价、供货更具优势。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>报道：供应链消息称，苹果之后，英伟达下一代GPU也将合作英特尔，以取悦特朗普</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n报道：供应链消息称，苹果之后，英伟达下一代GPU也将合作英特尔，以取悦特朗普\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-28 11:10 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764313><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>供应链人士透露，英伟达预计在2028年推出的Feynman架构平台将与英特尔合作，英伟达在合作中采用\"量少、低阶、非核心\"的合作策略。除英伟达外，苹果、谷歌、微软、AWS、高通、博通等企业也在与英特尔洽谈合作。分析认为，在政治、供应链韧性与台积电先进封装产能受限的现实下，美国芯片大厂势必启动双代工策略。继苹果之后，英伟达也计划将部分芯片制造业务转向英特尔代工。英伟达预计在2028年推出的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764313\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74be4c2a08964ef2daf32217f693b44","relate_stocks":{"LU1804176565.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL GROWTH EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1923622614.USD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A USD","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","LU2242650005.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL MULTI ASSET DYNAMIC \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2125909759.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety H-R/A SGD","SG9999014542.SGD":"United Income Focus Trust Acc SGD","LU0057025933.USD":"SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL THEMATIC PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) ACC","LU2125909916.SGD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A SGD","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","LU2211815571.USD":"ALLIANZ POSITIVE CHANGE \"AT\" (USD) ACC","BK4588":"碎股","LU1923622291.USD":"Natixis Thematics Safety R/A USD","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) 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Acc"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764313","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2606527757","content_text":"供应链人士透露，英伟达预计在2028年推出的Feynman架构平台将与英特尔合作，英伟达在合作中采用\"量少、低阶、非核心\"的合作策略。除英伟达外，苹果、谷歌、微软、AWS、高通、博通等企业也在与英特尔洽谈合作。分析认为，在政治、供应链韧性与台积电先进封装产能受限的现实下，美国芯片大厂势必启动双代工策略。继苹果之后，英伟达也计划将部分芯片制造业务转向英特尔代工。英伟达预计在2028年推出的Feynman架构平台将与英特尔合作，这是美国科技巨头在特朗普政府推动\"美国制造\"目标下调整供应链策略的最新案例。英特尔隔夜涨超3%，夜盘续涨近5%。据DIGITIMES周三报道，供应链人士透露，英伟达将在与英特尔的合作中采用\"量少、低阶、非核心\"的合作策略。GPU核心芯片仍由台积电代工，而I/O芯片则部分采用英特尔18A或预定2028年量产的14A制程，最后由英特尔EMIB进行先进封装。按先进封装比重计算，英特尔最高约占25%，台积电约占75%。这一转变反映出美国科技企业在政治压力、关税威胁和供应链韧性考量下，不得不从高度集中于台积电的模式转向“多源供应、分散风险”的新策略。除英伟达和苹果外，谷歌、微软、AWS、高通、博通、超微和特斯拉等企业也在与英特尔洽谈合作。尽管部分订单分流至英特尔，但业界认为这对台积电\"利远大于弊\"，有助于降低垄断疑虑、释放政治压力，同时台积电仍有信心稳固高阶芯片代工大单。英伟达Feynman架构部分转向英特尔英伟达在2025年9月宣布斥资50亿美元入股英特尔后，最新规划是在Rubin系列的下一代继任者Feynman架构芯片中与英特尔合作。根据供应链消息，GPU核心芯片仍由台积电代工，I/O芯片则部分采用英特尔18A或14A制程，具体选择取决于14A后续良率量产状况。供应链人士表示，在特朗普政府美国制造目标确立与关税压力下，美国芯片大厂早已与英特尔研议合作，但由于18A未达客户期待，合作时间点应在2028年量产的14A。英特尔执行长陈立武日前表示，目前有两家客户正在评估14A制程的具体细节。对比14A、18A制程导入风险高，多数业者与英特尔的合作从先进封装EMIB先行。供应链业者分析，美国制造目标面临成本与良率挑战，但在政治、供应链韧性与台积电先进封装产能受限的现实下，美国芯片大厂势必启动双代工策略。苹果入门级处理器重启英特尔合作苹果与英特尔洽谈多时的合作代工产品，应是MacBook所搭载的\"入门级M系列处理器\"，目前由台积电代工。苹果Mac系列自2006年起采用英特尔x86处理器，英特尔也在2005年于美国俄勒冈州晶圆厂特为其设立\"Apple Group\"专属产线。2020年6月，苹果正式宣布推出Arm架构芯片\"Apple Silicon\"，Mac系列机种2年后全数转采自研芯片。当时苹果主要考量是扩大供应链掌握度以及整合生态系，另一关键是英特尔10纳米制程延迟恐影响Mac新机上市。供应链业者透露，苹果3年后重启与英特尔合作的主因，仍是特朗普主导下的美国制造目标与关税冲击，其次是成本、分散单一代工制造风险及产能短缺等因素。台积电三层战略应对客户分流目前观察，苹果、英伟达都以代工风险最低的产品渐进式调整。与英特尔洽谈合作的还有谷歌、微软、AWS、高通、博通、超微与特斯拉等，以及掌握度最高的美国政府标案长约大单。不过，英特尔能否符合早已习惯台积电模式的科技龙头需求，变数仍大。对台积电来说，已预见众多客户会另转往英特尔投片，但分析认为实际上\"利远大于弊\"，至少有三层战略考量：第一，可降低垄断与监管疑虑；第二，可释放美国政治压力；第三，外溢仅是\"非核心\"订单，有助于未来议价与供货。一方面替台积电在晶圆代工业市占率过高恐牵扯反垄断法的疑虑有所解套，二方面适度释出非核心订单也可减轻来自特朗普政府不断释出各种要求的压力，三方面台积电仍有信心稳固各大厂核心的高阶芯片代工大单。或许试过转单其他晶圆代工厂的客户，才会想念台积电的美好，这对于台积电未来的议价、供货更具优势。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"INTC":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321388991062128,"gmtCreate":1719502883440,"gmtModify":1719507993382,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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看到160","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/321388991062128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1665,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":531080660387440,"gmtCreate":1770679330741,"gmtModify":1770679333010,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"日本鬼子涨上天都不买！","listText":"日本鬼子涨上天都不买！","text":"日本鬼子涨上天都不买！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/531080660387440","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":659,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":528975375012664,"gmtCreate":1770175655600,"gmtModify":1770175658321,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"华尔街说涨的时候快跑就对了","listText":"华尔街说涨的时候快跑就对了","text":"华尔街说涨的时候快跑就对了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/528975375012664","repostId":"2608489428","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2608489428","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1770087763,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2608489428?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-03 11:02","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"黄金牛市还在吗？华尔街坚定看多：技术性回调不要怕，中国买家已成黄金市场强劲支柱！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2608489428","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近期黄金暴跌被华尔街视为“技术性洗盘”，牛市逻辑并未动摇。德银坚定看多至6000美元，强调中国买家正疯狂扫货，1月黄金ETF增持94万盎司，买入强度或达去年三倍；瑞银指4500美元为强力支撑位。巴克莱认为，在法币信用危机与政策动荡下，黄金溢价将长期存在。","content":"<p>2026年开年的黄金市场，演绎了一场极致的“惊魂记”。</p><p>在短短数周内，现货金价从4300美元一路狂飙至5600美元的历史巅峰，随即又如断线风筝般坠落至4500美元下方。这种单日两位数的跌幅，在黄金历史上仅出现过两次——分别是1980年和1983年。</p><p>面对“闪崩”，市场关于黄金泡沫破裂的质疑声此起彼伏。然而，巴克莱、瑞银和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>等华尔街巨头却在巨震中保持了惊人的冷静。</p><p>在他们看来，<strong>这并非牛市的终结，而是一次极致挤压后的“健康清算”。在宏观叙事未变的背景下，黄金正处于通往6000美元目标的“技术性休整”。</strong></p><p><strong>与此同时，一个关键的支撑是，中国买家正在疯狂扫货。</strong>德银报告显示，中国投资者目前的买入黄金ETF强度可能是去年的三倍以上。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5bc68959906d3afb402e317c7797f641\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"417\"></p><h2 id=\"id_4017511843\">大行共识：“极致拥挤”后的技术性回踩</h2><p>黄金之所以在近期出现剧烈调整，在华尔街眼中更多是“技术性”而非“根本性”的。瑞银在最新的报告中直言：</p><blockquote><p><strong>黄金涨势结束了吗？简而言之，我们的答案是否定的。</strong></p></blockquote><p>该行认为，金价从高位回落约21%，主要归结为短期投机头寸的“大清洗”。此前的单边暴涨导致市场仓位过度拥挤，当获利盘涌出时，踩踏效应被成倍放大。瑞银策略师Joni Teves认为：</p><blockquote><p><strong>目前来看，短期盘整是必要的，我们认为从长远来看，此次回调对市场是有益的。</strong>这段时间应该会为投资者提供以更具吸引力的入场点构建长期战略仓位的机会。我们预计支撑位将在附近出现。</p></blockquote><p>巴克莱的分析也印证了这一点。其模型显示，黄金的公允价值目前约在4000美元。尽管目前的溢价依然存在，但回落至4900美元后，溢价已回归至合理标准差内。</p><p>该行强调，在政策动荡和法币信誉受损的背景下，金价长期偏离公允价值并非泡沫，而是市场对风险的一种“前瞻性定价”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b68171dba8572c84be5b28df247ec79\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"488\"></p><h2 id=\"id_1233494495\">别慌，基本面没变</h2><p>尽管价格剧震，但各大行均强调：驱动黄金长牛的底层基本面没有发生太大变化。</p><p>瑞银写道：</p><blockquote><p>从基本面来看，我们认为情况并未发生太大变化。我们预计，包括散户、机构和官方部门在内的各方需求都将全面恢复。这将最终推动黄金恢复上涨趋势，并在未来几个季度创下新高。</p></blockquote><p>而全球宏观环境的动荡依然是黄金的“燃油”。地缘政治、关税政策、持续的财政扩张以及对法币贬值的担忧，正迫使投资者将黄金视为避险的“最后一道防线”。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>“财政主导”下的美元贬值压力：</strong></p></li></ul><p>巴克莱指出，特朗普2.0时代的政策核心是“扩张性财政+关税通胀”。美国政府债务水平高企且无意约束，这种“财政主导（Fiscal Dominance）”的环境直接削弱了美债的避险属性。投资者对法币贬值的长期恐惧（Fiat Debasement）不仅没有消失，反而因政策不确定性而加剧。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>美联储换帅难改“通胀漂移”：</strong></p></li></ul><p>尽管特朗普提名的美联储主席沃什（Kevin Warsh）被视为制度连贯性的象征，但巴克莱认为，政策波动带来的挑战不会很快消失。该行计算，美国CPI每上升1%，金价就有5%的内生上涨动力。在未来一年通胀预期3%背景下，金价仅凭“通胀漂移”就有15%的保底涨幅。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>地缘政治与“战略自主”：</strong></p></li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>指出，当前全球政治与贸易关系正在发生结构性位移。继俄罗斯储备被冻结后，全球央行对“战略自主”的需求达到了前所未有的高度。黄金作为唯一的“非政权信用资产”，其在储备中的地位正从“收益驱动”转向“生存驱动”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/349769a25f90a043adce86eaabe48a71\" tg-width=\"923\" tg-height=\"430\"></p><h2 id=\"id_1911000237\">“神秘力量”现身：中国买家正在疯狂扫货</h2><p>在此次金价博弈中，德意志银行捕捉到了一个至关重要的变量：<strong>中国投资者正在成为全球贵金属市场的“关键支柱”。</strong></p><p>数据显示，仅在2026年1月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600916\">中国黄金</a>ETF的增持量就达到了94万盎司。德银分析师Michael Hsueh指出，<strong>如果按此速度来估算年化，2026年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02099\">中国黄金</a>ETF的增持量或将达到1150万盎司。</strong></p><p>这是一个什么概念？2025年中国黄金ETF曾创下历史纪录，但总增持量也不过324万盎司。这意味着，中国投资者目前的买入强度是去年的三倍以上。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69d00d1c7f0ad6906a57ebac0e51ca9f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"432\"></p><p>这种需求不仅体现在黄金上。德银注意到，由于境内投资渠道有限，中国某白银期货基金在去年12月一度出现了<strong>62%的惊人溢价</strong>。尽管存在风险，但溢价在1月短暂回落后又迅速飙升至59%，甚至触发了交易停牌。</p><p>在德银看来，这种“东方定价权”的崛起，为全球金价筑起了一道坚实的底部防线。</p><h2 id=\"id_32722114\">中国投资者“越涨越买”</h2><p>而在对中国市场的深度调研中，瑞银捕捉到了一个至关重要的结构性变化：<strong>高金价虽然抑制了珠宝消费，但却激发了更为猛烈的投资性买需。</strong></p><p>瑞银在报告中指出，中国市场的“看涨情绪”已处于多年高位。过去，金价上涨往往会吓退中国消费者，但这一次，中国投资者展现出了“越涨越买”的特征。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>“珠宝转投资”的跷跷板：</strong> 瑞银观察到，尽管零售端的珠宝需求因金价过高而出现季节性放缓，但这部分缺口已被激增的实物金条、金币需求完全填补。</p></li><li><p><strong>离岸避险情绪：</strong> 瑞银分析称，中国在岸市场强烈的资产保值诉求，驱动资金疯狂涌入黄金ETF。瑞银的数据显示，中国已成为当前全球黄金ETF净流入的最强引擎，这种由“避险+资产轮动”驱动的买盘，比传统的礼品消费更具持续性和规模效应。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f28be80642ff749072e0290abe6f0566\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"435\"></p><h2 id=\"id_810952837\">瑞银：持仓依然偏低，4500美元是“支撑”</h2><p>瑞银策略师Joni Teves则指出，尽管金价经历了大幅波动，但<strong>大部分长期机构投资者的黄金配置仍然处于较低水平。</strong> 随着金价回落，这些尚未建仓或仓位不足的投资者将获得完美的入场点。</p><p>瑞银预测，<strong>4500美元附近将是强力的技术支撑位</strong>，金价有望在未来几个季度重拾升势，并刷新高点。</p><p>支持这一判断的长期逻辑包括：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>去美元化持续：</strong> 央行需求依然强劲，波兰央行已批准计划，拟将黄金储备从550吨提升至700吨，甚至不惜让黄金在储备中的占比超过30%；韩国央行也表示在考虑结束长达十年的观望，重新增持黄金。瑞银指出，在去美元化和资产多元化的结构性趋势下，央行的“买入补丁”将长期存在。</p></li><li><p><strong>实际收益率钝化：</strong> 近几个月，黄金表现出了对美联储加息预期和实际利率上升的“免疫力”，这意味着驱动金价的主轴已从“利率博弈”转向“信用风险对冲”。</p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_809241595\">德银：6000美元目标不变，回调即是入场点</h2><p>对于后市，华尔街的观点高度一致：短期整理，中长期依然“闪耀”。</p><p>德意志银行坚定地维持了黄金6000美元/盎司的目标价，认为目前的调整只是大趋势中的微小波折。</p><p>该行分析师Michael Hsueh在2月2日的报告中写道，包括央行买盘在内，黄金的所谓主题驱动因素“依然积极，我们认为投资者配置黄金的理由将不会有变。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aafb82e486af39c7c4d956996140e400\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"342\"></p><h2 id=\"id_2391170340\">巴克莱：黄金矿业股依然具有吸引力</h2><p>而除了现货黄金，巴克莱还给出了一个极具吸引力的套利机会：<strong>黄金矿业股。</strong></p><p>历史经验显示，黄金牛市往往持续2-4年，涨幅可达200%-400%。而自2023年10月以来，本轮牛市涨幅仅170%。更重要的是，矿企的EPS（每股收益）动能尚未完全释放。</p><p>巴克莱认为矿业股有望在金价企稳后迎来一波猛烈的报复性补涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fd85e5b39918c6f389b14b4f7e6110cc\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"603\"></p><p>黄金市场的这轮“暂停思考”，或许正是为了下一次更强力的冲刺。正如华尔街分析师们所总结的：在法币信用动摇、地缘局势诡谲的2026年，黄金的诱惑力不仅在于避险，更在于它在充满不确定性的世界里，提供了难得的确定性。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>黄金牛市还在吗？华尔街坚定看多：技术性回调不要怕，中国买家已成黄金市场强劲支柱！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; 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0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n黄金牛市还在吗？华尔街坚定看多：技术性回调不要怕，中国买家已成黄金市场强劲支柱！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-03 11:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764808><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2026年开年的黄金市场，演绎了一场极致的“惊魂记”。在短短数周内，现货金价从4300美元一路狂飙至5600美元的历史巅峰，随即又如断线风筝般坠落至4500美元下方。这种单日两位数的跌幅，在黄金历史上仅出现过两次——分别是1980年和1983年。面对“闪崩”，市场关于黄金泡沫破裂的质疑声此起彼伏。然而，巴克莱、瑞银和德意志银行等华尔街巨头却在巨震中保持了惊人的冷静。在他们看来，这并非牛市的终结，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764808\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"USAU":"美国黄金公司","NEM":"纽曼矿业","01787":"山东黄金","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","GFI":"金田","03939":"万国黄金集团","AEM":"伊格尔矿业","RGLD":"皇家黄金","BK4504":"桥水持仓","AU":"AngloGold Ashanti Ltd ADS","BK4588":"碎股","03330":"灵宝黄金(一百)","EQX":"EQUINOX GOLD CORP","VGZ":"Vista Gold Corp","KGC":"金罗斯黄金","HL":"赫克拉矿业","CDE":"科尔黛伦矿业","02099":"中国黄金国际","EGO":"埃氏金业","06693":"赤峰黄金","02899":"紫金矿业","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","B":"Barrick Mining Corporation","06181":"老铺黄金","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","HMY":"哈莫尼黄金","UGL":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares","01818":"招金矿业"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764808","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2608489428","content_text":"2026年开年的黄金市场，演绎了一场极致的“惊魂记”。在短短数周内，现货金价从4300美元一路狂飙至5600美元的历史巅峰，随即又如断线风筝般坠落至4500美元下方。这种单日两位数的跌幅，在黄金历史上仅出现过两次——分别是1980年和1983年。面对“闪崩”，市场关于黄金泡沫破裂的质疑声此起彼伏。然而，巴克莱、瑞银和德意志银行等华尔街巨头却在巨震中保持了惊人的冷静。在他们看来，这并非牛市的终结，而是一次极致挤压后的“健康清算”。在宏观叙事未变的背景下，黄金正处于通往6000美元目标的“技术性休整”。与此同时，一个关键的支撑是，中国买家正在疯狂扫货。德银报告显示，中国投资者目前的买入黄金ETF强度可能是去年的三倍以上。大行共识：“极致拥挤”后的技术性回踩黄金之所以在近期出现剧烈调整，在华尔街眼中更多是“技术性”而非“根本性”的。瑞银在最新的报告中直言：黄金涨势结束了吗？简而言之，我们的答案是否定的。该行认为，金价从高位回落约21%，主要归结为短期投机头寸的“大清洗”。此前的单边暴涨导致市场仓位过度拥挤，当获利盘涌出时，踩踏效应被成倍放大。瑞银策略师Joni Teves认为：目前来看，短期盘整是必要的，我们认为从长远来看，此次回调对市场是有益的。这段时间应该会为投资者提供以更具吸引力的入场点构建长期战略仓位的机会。我们预计支撑位将在附近出现。巴克莱的分析也印证了这一点。其模型显示，黄金的公允价值目前约在4000美元。尽管目前的溢价依然存在，但回落至4900美元后，溢价已回归至合理标准差内。该行强调，在政策动荡和法币信誉受损的背景下，金价长期偏离公允价值并非泡沫，而是市场对风险的一种“前瞻性定价”。别慌，基本面没变尽管价格剧震，但各大行均强调：驱动黄金长牛的底层基本面没有发生太大变化。瑞银写道：从基本面来看，我们认为情况并未发生太大变化。我们预计，包括散户、机构和官方部门在内的各方需求都将全面恢复。这将最终推动黄金恢复上涨趋势，并在未来几个季度创下新高。而全球宏观环境的动荡依然是黄金的“燃油”。地缘政治、关税政策、持续的财政扩张以及对法币贬值的担忧，正迫使投资者将黄金视为避险的“最后一道防线”。“财政主导”下的美元贬值压力：巴克莱指出，特朗普2.0时代的政策核心是“扩张性财政+关税通胀”。美国政府债务水平高企且无意约束，这种“财政主导（Fiscal Dominance）”的环境直接削弱了美债的避险属性。投资者对法币贬值的长期恐惧（Fiat Debasement）不仅没有消失，反而因政策不确定性而加剧。美联储换帅难改“通胀漂移”：尽管特朗普提名的美联储主席沃什（Kevin Warsh）被视为制度连贯性的象征，但巴克莱认为，政策波动带来的挑战不会很快消失。该行计算，美国CPI每上升1%，金价就有5%的内生上涨动力。在未来一年通胀预期3%背景下，金价仅凭“通胀漂移”就有15%的保底涨幅。地缘政治与“战略自主”：德意志银行指出，当前全球政治与贸易关系正在发生结构性位移。继俄罗斯储备被冻结后，全球央行对“战略自主”的需求达到了前所未有的高度。黄金作为唯一的“非政权信用资产”，其在储备中的地位正从“收益驱动”转向“生存驱动”。“神秘力量”现身：中国买家正在疯狂扫货在此次金价博弈中，德意志银行捕捉到了一个至关重要的变量：中国投资者正在成为全球贵金属市场的“关键支柱”。数据显示，仅在2026年1月，中国黄金ETF的增持量就达到了94万盎司。德银分析师Michael Hsueh指出，如果按此速度来估算年化，2026年中国黄金ETF的增持量或将达到1150万盎司。这是一个什么概念？2025年中国黄金ETF曾创下历史纪录，但总增持量也不过324万盎司。这意味着，中国投资者目前的买入强度是去年的三倍以上。这种需求不仅体现在黄金上。德银注意到，由于境内投资渠道有限，中国某白银期货基金在去年12月一度出现了62%的惊人溢价。尽管存在风险，但溢价在1月短暂回落后又迅速飙升至59%，甚至触发了交易停牌。在德银看来，这种“东方定价权”的崛起，为全球金价筑起了一道坚实的底部防线。中国投资者“越涨越买”而在对中国市场的深度调研中，瑞银捕捉到了一个至关重要的结构性变化：高金价虽然抑制了珠宝消费，但却激发了更为猛烈的投资性买需。瑞银在报告中指出，中国市场的“看涨情绪”已处于多年高位。过去，金价上涨往往会吓退中国消费者，但这一次，中国投资者展现出了“越涨越买”的特征。“珠宝转投资”的跷跷板： 瑞银观察到，尽管零售端的珠宝需求因金价过高而出现季节性放缓，但这部分缺口已被激增的实物金条、金币需求完全填补。离岸避险情绪： 瑞银分析称，中国在岸市场强烈的资产保值诉求，驱动资金疯狂涌入黄金ETF。瑞银的数据显示，中国已成为当前全球黄金ETF净流入的最强引擎，这种由“避险+资产轮动”驱动的买盘，比传统的礼品消费更具持续性和规模效应。瑞银：持仓依然偏低，4500美元是“支撑”瑞银策略师Joni Teves则指出，尽管金价经历了大幅波动，但大部分长期机构投资者的黄金配置仍然处于较低水平。 随着金价回落，这些尚未建仓或仓位不足的投资者将获得完美的入场点。瑞银预测，4500美元附近将是强力的技术支撑位，金价有望在未来几个季度重拾升势，并刷新高点。支持这一判断的长期逻辑包括：去美元化持续： 央行需求依然强劲，波兰央行已批准计划，拟将黄金储备从550吨提升至700吨，甚至不惜让黄金在储备中的占比超过30%；韩国央行也表示在考虑结束长达十年的观望，重新增持黄金。瑞银指出，在去美元化和资产多元化的结构性趋势下，央行的“买入补丁”将长期存在。实际收益率钝化： 近几个月，黄金表现出了对美联储加息预期和实际利率上升的“免疫力”，这意味着驱动金价的主轴已从“利率博弈”转向“信用风险对冲”。德银：6000美元目标不变，回调即是入场点对于后市，华尔街的观点高度一致：短期整理，中长期依然“闪耀”。德意志银行坚定地维持了黄金6000美元/盎司的目标价，认为目前的调整只是大趋势中的微小波折。该行分析师Michael Hsueh在2月2日的报告中写道，包括央行买盘在内，黄金的所谓主题驱动因素“依然积极，我们认为投资者配置黄金的理由将不会有变。”巴克莱：黄金矿业股依然具有吸引力而除了现货黄金，巴克莱还给出了一个极具吸引力的套利机会：黄金矿业股。历史经验显示，黄金牛市往往持续2-4年，涨幅可达200%-400%。而自2023年10月以来，本轮牛市涨幅仅170%。更重要的是，矿企的EPS（每股收益）动能尚未完全释放。巴克莱认为矿业股有望在金价企稳后迎来一波猛烈的报复性补涨。黄金市场的这轮“暂停思考”，或许正是为了下一次更强力的冲刺。正如华尔街分析师们所总结的：在法币信用动摇、地缘局势诡谲的2026年，黄金的诱惑力不仅在于避险，更在于它在充满不确定性的世界里，提供了难得的确定性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USAU":2,"NEM":2,"AEM":2,"01818":2,"VGZ":2,"02899":2,"GLD":2,"AU":2,"EGO":2,"IAU":2,"06693":2,"B":2,"GCmain":2,"HL":2,"MGCmain":2,"02099":2,"GFI":2,"HMY":2,"MGC2602":2,"CDE":2,"EQX":2,"RGLD":2,"01787":2,"XAUUSD.FOREX":2,"03939":2,"KGC":2,"06181":2,"03330":2,"02303":2,"UGL":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":528975269974032,"gmtCreate":1770175592015,"gmtModify":1770178793456,"author":{"id":"4142077799324650","authorId":"4142077799324650","name":"响亮的厂","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9950f2b3af5d7add43afff6e5572416","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4142077799324650","authorIdStr":"4142077799324650"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"万恶的资本家！串通大嘴巴变色龙特朗普假造紧张局势，专门发这种假参考吸引中国人高位接盘！自己偷偷跑！！专割中国人羊毛！","listText":"万恶的资本家！串通大嘴巴变色龙特朗普假造紧张局势，专门发这种假参考吸引中国人高位接盘！自己偷偷跑！！专割中国人羊毛！","text":"万恶的资本家！串通大嘴巴变色龙特朗普假造紧张局势，专门发这种假参考吸引中国人高位接盘！自己偷偷跑！！专割中国人羊毛！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/528975269974032","repostId":"2608489428","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2608489428","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1770087763,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2608489428?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-03 11:02","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"黄金牛市还在吗？华尔街坚定看多：技术性回调不要怕，中国买家已成黄金市场强劲支柱！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2608489428","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"近期黄金暴跌被华尔街视为“技术性洗盘”，牛市逻辑并未动摇。德银坚定看多至6000美元，强调中国买家正疯狂扫货，1月黄金ETF增持94万盎司，买入强度或达去年三倍；瑞银指4500美元为强力支撑位。巴克莱认为，在法币信用危机与政策动荡下，黄金溢价将长期存在。","content":"<p>2026年开年的黄金市场，演绎了一场极致的“惊魂记”。</p><p>在短短数周内，现货金价从4300美元一路狂飙至5600美元的历史巅峰，随即又如断线风筝般坠落至4500美元下方。这种单日两位数的跌幅，在黄金历史上仅出现过两次——分别是1980年和1983年。</p><p>面对“闪崩”，市场关于黄金泡沫破裂的质疑声此起彼伏。然而，巴克莱、瑞银和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>等华尔街巨头却在巨震中保持了惊人的冷静。</p><p>在他们看来，<strong>这并非牛市的终结，而是一次极致挤压后的“健康清算”。在宏观叙事未变的背景下，黄金正处于通往6000美元目标的“技术性休整”。</strong></p><p><strong>与此同时，一个关键的支撑是，中国买家正在疯狂扫货。</strong>德银报告显示，中国投资者目前的买入黄金ETF强度可能是去年的三倍以上。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5bc68959906d3afb402e317c7797f641\" tg-width=\"783\" tg-height=\"417\"></p><h2 id=\"id_4017511843\">大行共识：“极致拥挤”后的技术性回踩</h2><p>黄金之所以在近期出现剧烈调整，在华尔街眼中更多是“技术性”而非“根本性”的。瑞银在最新的报告中直言：</p><blockquote><p><strong>黄金涨势结束了吗？简而言之，我们的答案是否定的。</strong></p></blockquote><p>该行认为，金价从高位回落约21%，主要归结为短期投机头寸的“大清洗”。此前的单边暴涨导致市场仓位过度拥挤，当获利盘涌出时，踩踏效应被成倍放大。瑞银策略师Joni Teves认为：</p><blockquote><p><strong>目前来看，短期盘整是必要的，我们认为从长远来看，此次回调对市场是有益的。</strong>这段时间应该会为投资者提供以更具吸引力的入场点构建长期战略仓位的机会。我们预计支撑位将在附近出现。</p></blockquote><p>巴克莱的分析也印证了这一点。其模型显示，黄金的公允价值目前约在4000美元。尽管目前的溢价依然存在，但回落至4900美元后，溢价已回归至合理标准差内。</p><p>该行强调，在政策动荡和法币信誉受损的背景下，金价长期偏离公允价值并非泡沫，而是市场对风险的一种“前瞻性定价”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/4b68171dba8572c84be5b28df247ec79\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"488\"></p><h2 id=\"id_1233494495\">别慌，基本面没变</h2><p>尽管价格剧震，但各大行均强调：驱动黄金长牛的底层基本面没有发生太大变化。</p><p>瑞银写道：</p><blockquote><p>从基本面来看，我们认为情况并未发生太大变化。我们预计，包括散户、机构和官方部门在内的各方需求都将全面恢复。这将最终推动黄金恢复上涨趋势，并在未来几个季度创下新高。</p></blockquote><p>而全球宏观环境的动荡依然是黄金的“燃油”。地缘政治、关税政策、持续的财政扩张以及对法币贬值的担忧，正迫使投资者将黄金视为避险的“最后一道防线”。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>“财政主导”下的美元贬值压力：</strong></p></li></ul><p>巴克莱指出，特朗普2.0时代的政策核心是“扩张性财政+关税通胀”。美国政府债务水平高企且无意约束，这种“财政主导（Fiscal Dominance）”的环境直接削弱了美债的避险属性。投资者对法币贬值的长期恐惧（Fiat Debasement）不仅没有消失，反而因政策不确定性而加剧。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>美联储换帅难改“通胀漂移”：</strong></p></li></ul><p>尽管特朗普提名的美联储主席沃什（Kevin Warsh）被视为制度连贯性的象征，但巴克莱认为，政策波动带来的挑战不会很快消失。该行计算，美国CPI每上升1%，金价就有5%的内生上涨动力。在未来一年通胀预期3%背景下，金价仅凭“通胀漂移”就有15%的保底涨幅。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>地缘政治与“战略自主”：</strong></p></li></ul><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/0H7D.UK\">德意志银行</a>指出，当前全球政治与贸易关系正在发生结构性位移。继俄罗斯储备被冻结后，全球央行对“战略自主”的需求达到了前所未有的高度。黄金作为唯一的“非政权信用资产”，其在储备中的地位正从“收益驱动”转向“生存驱动”。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/349769a25f90a043adce86eaabe48a71\" tg-width=\"923\" tg-height=\"430\"></p><h2 id=\"id_1911000237\">“神秘力量”现身：中国买家正在疯狂扫货</h2><p>在此次金价博弈中，德意志银行捕捉到了一个至关重要的变量：<strong>中国投资者正在成为全球贵金属市场的“关键支柱”。</strong></p><p>数据显示，仅在2026年1月，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600916\">中国黄金</a>ETF的增持量就达到了94万盎司。德银分析师Michael Hsueh指出，<strong>如果按此速度来估算年化，2026年<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02099\">中国黄金</a>ETF的增持量或将达到1150万盎司。</strong></p><p>这是一个什么概念？2025年中国黄金ETF曾创下历史纪录，但总增持量也不过324万盎司。这意味着，中国投资者目前的买入强度是去年的三倍以上。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/69d00d1c7f0ad6906a57ebac0e51ca9f\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"432\"></p><p>这种需求不仅体现在黄金上。德银注意到，由于境内投资渠道有限，中国某白银期货基金在去年12月一度出现了<strong>62%的惊人溢价</strong>。尽管存在风险，但溢价在1月短暂回落后又迅速飙升至59%，甚至触发了交易停牌。</p><p>在德银看来，这种“东方定价权”的崛起，为全球金价筑起了一道坚实的底部防线。</p><h2 id=\"id_32722114\">中国投资者“越涨越买”</h2><p>而在对中国市场的深度调研中，瑞银捕捉到了一个至关重要的结构性变化：<strong>高金价虽然抑制了珠宝消费，但却激发了更为猛烈的投资性买需。</strong></p><p>瑞银在报告中指出，中国市场的“看涨情绪”已处于多年高位。过去，金价上涨往往会吓退中国消费者，但这一次，中国投资者展现出了“越涨越买”的特征。</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>“珠宝转投资”的跷跷板：</strong> 瑞银观察到，尽管零售端的珠宝需求因金价过高而出现季节性放缓，但这部分缺口已被激增的实物金条、金币需求完全填补。</p></li><li><p><strong>离岸避险情绪：</strong> 瑞银分析称，中国在岸市场强烈的资产保值诉求，驱动资金疯狂涌入黄金ETF。瑞银的数据显示，中国已成为当前全球黄金ETF净流入的最强引擎，这种由“避险+资产轮动”驱动的买盘，比传统的礼品消费更具持续性和规模效应。</p></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/f28be80642ff749072e0290abe6f0566\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"435\"></p><h2 id=\"id_810952837\">瑞银：持仓依然偏低，4500美元是“支撑”</h2><p>瑞银策略师Joni Teves则指出，尽管金价经历了大幅波动，但<strong>大部分长期机构投资者的黄金配置仍然处于较低水平。</strong> 随着金价回落，这些尚未建仓或仓位不足的投资者将获得完美的入场点。</p><p>瑞银预测，<strong>4500美元附近将是强力的技术支撑位</strong>，金价有望在未来几个季度重拾升势，并刷新高点。</p><p>支持这一判断的长期逻辑包括：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>去美元化持续：</strong> 央行需求依然强劲，波兰央行已批准计划，拟将黄金储备从550吨提升至700吨，甚至不惜让黄金在储备中的占比超过30%；韩国央行也表示在考虑结束长达十年的观望，重新增持黄金。瑞银指出，在去美元化和资产多元化的结构性趋势下，央行的“买入补丁”将长期存在。</p></li><li><p><strong>实际收益率钝化：</strong> 近几个月，黄金表现出了对美联储加息预期和实际利率上升的“免疫力”，这意味着驱动金价的主轴已从“利率博弈”转向“信用风险对冲”。</p></li></ol><h2 id=\"id_809241595\">德银：6000美元目标不变，回调即是入场点</h2><p>对于后市，华尔街的观点高度一致：短期整理，中长期依然“闪耀”。</p><p>德意志银行坚定地维持了黄金6000美元/盎司的目标价，认为目前的调整只是大趋势中的微小波折。</p><p>该行分析师Michael Hsueh在2月2日的报告中写道，包括央行买盘在内，黄金的所谓主题驱动因素“依然积极，我们认为投资者配置黄金的理由将不会有变。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/aafb82e486af39c7c4d956996140e400\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"342\"></p><h2 id=\"id_2391170340\">巴克莱：黄金矿业股依然具有吸引力</h2><p>而除了现货黄金，巴克莱还给出了一个极具吸引力的套利机会：<strong>黄金矿业股。</strong></p><p>历史经验显示，黄金牛市往往持续2-4年，涨幅可达200%-400%。而自2023年10月以来，本轮牛市涨幅仅170%。更重要的是，矿企的EPS（每股收益）动能尚未完全释放。</p><p>巴克莱认为矿业股有望在金价企稳后迎来一波猛烈的报复性补涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/fd85e5b39918c6f389b14b4f7e6110cc\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"603\"></p><p>黄金市场的这轮“暂停思考”，或许正是为了下一次更强力的冲刺。正如华尔街分析师们所总结的：在法币信用动摇、地缘局势诡谲的2026年，黄金的诱惑力不仅在于避险，更在于它在充满不确定性的世界里，提供了难得的确定性。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764808><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2026年开年的黄金市场，演绎了一场极致的“惊魂记”。在短短数周内，现货金价从4300美元一路狂飙至5600美元的历史巅峰，随即又如断线风筝般坠落至4500美元下方。这种单日两位数的跌幅，在黄金历史上仅出现过两次——分别是1980年和1983年。面对“闪崩”，市场关于黄金泡沫破裂的质疑声此起彼伏。然而，巴克莱、瑞银和德意志银行等华尔街巨头却在巨震中保持了惊人的冷静。在他们看来，这并非牛市的终结，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764808\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"USAU":"美国黄金公司","NEM":"纽曼矿业","01787":"山东黄金","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","GFI":"金田","03939":"万国黄金集团","AEM":"伊格尔矿业","RGLD":"皇家黄金","BK4504":"桥水持仓","AU":"AngloGold Ashanti Ltd ADS","BK4588":"碎股","03330":"灵宝黄金(一百)","EQX":"EQUINOX GOLD CORP","VGZ":"Vista Gold Corp","KGC":"金罗斯黄金","HL":"赫克拉矿业","CDE":"科尔黛伦矿业","02099":"中国黄金国际","EGO":"埃氏金业","06693":"赤峰黄金","02899":"紫金矿业","GLD":"黄金ETF-SPDR","B":"Barrick Mining Corporation","06181":"老铺黄金","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","IAU":"黄金信托ETF-iShares","HMY":"哈莫尼黄金","UGL":"2倍做多黄金ETF-ProShares","01818":"招金矿业"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3764808","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2608489428","content_text":"2026年开年的黄金市场，演绎了一场极致的“惊魂记”。在短短数周内，现货金价从4300美元一路狂飙至5600美元的历史巅峰，随即又如断线风筝般坠落至4500美元下方。这种单日两位数的跌幅，在黄金历史上仅出现过两次——分别是1980年和1983年。面对“闪崩”，市场关于黄金泡沫破裂的质疑声此起彼伏。然而，巴克莱、瑞银和德意志银行等华尔街巨头却在巨震中保持了惊人的冷静。在他们看来，这并非牛市的终结，而是一次极致挤压后的“健康清算”。在宏观叙事未变的背景下，黄金正处于通往6000美元目标的“技术性休整”。与此同时，一个关键的支撑是，中国买家正在疯狂扫货。德银报告显示，中国投资者目前的买入黄金ETF强度可能是去年的三倍以上。大行共识：“极致拥挤”后的技术性回踩黄金之所以在近期出现剧烈调整，在华尔街眼中更多是“技术性”而非“根本性”的。瑞银在最新的报告中直言：黄金涨势结束了吗？简而言之，我们的答案是否定的。该行认为，金价从高位回落约21%，主要归结为短期投机头寸的“大清洗”。此前的单边暴涨导致市场仓位过度拥挤，当获利盘涌出时，踩踏效应被成倍放大。瑞银策略师Joni Teves认为：目前来看，短期盘整是必要的，我们认为从长远来看，此次回调对市场是有益的。这段时间应该会为投资者提供以更具吸引力的入场点构建长期战略仓位的机会。我们预计支撑位将在附近出现。巴克莱的分析也印证了这一点。其模型显示，黄金的公允价值目前约在4000美元。尽管目前的溢价依然存在，但回落至4900美元后，溢价已回归至合理标准差内。该行强调，在政策动荡和法币信誉受损的背景下，金价长期偏离公允价值并非泡沫，而是市场对风险的一种“前瞻性定价”。别慌，基本面没变尽管价格剧震，但各大行均强调：驱动黄金长牛的底层基本面没有发生太大变化。瑞银写道：从基本面来看，我们认为情况并未发生太大变化。我们预计，包括散户、机构和官方部门在内的各方需求都将全面恢复。这将最终推动黄金恢复上涨趋势，并在未来几个季度创下新高。而全球宏观环境的动荡依然是黄金的“燃油”。地缘政治、关税政策、持续的财政扩张以及对法币贬值的担忧，正迫使投资者将黄金视为避险的“最后一道防线”。“财政主导”下的美元贬值压力：巴克莱指出，特朗普2.0时代的政策核心是“扩张性财政+关税通胀”。美国政府债务水平高企且无意约束，这种“财政主导（Fiscal Dominance）”的环境直接削弱了美债的避险属性。投资者对法币贬值的长期恐惧（Fiat Debasement）不仅没有消失，反而因政策不确定性而加剧。美联储换帅难改“通胀漂移”：尽管特朗普提名的美联储主席沃什（Kevin Warsh）被视为制度连贯性的象征，但巴克莱认为，政策波动带来的挑战不会很快消失。该行计算，美国CPI每上升1%，金价就有5%的内生上涨动力。在未来一年通胀预期3%背景下，金价仅凭“通胀漂移”就有15%的保底涨幅。地缘政治与“战略自主”：德意志银行指出，当前全球政治与贸易关系正在发生结构性位移。继俄罗斯储备被冻结后，全球央行对“战略自主”的需求达到了前所未有的高度。黄金作为唯一的“非政权信用资产”，其在储备中的地位正从“收益驱动”转向“生存驱动”。“神秘力量”现身：中国买家正在疯狂扫货在此次金价博弈中，德意志银行捕捉到了一个至关重要的变量：中国投资者正在成为全球贵金属市场的“关键支柱”。数据显示，仅在2026年1月，中国黄金ETF的增持量就达到了94万盎司。德银分析师Michael Hsueh指出，如果按此速度来估算年化，2026年中国黄金ETF的增持量或将达到1150万盎司。这是一个什么概念？2025年中国黄金ETF曾创下历史纪录，但总增持量也不过324万盎司。这意味着，中国投资者目前的买入强度是去年的三倍以上。这种需求不仅体现在黄金上。德银注意到，由于境内投资渠道有限，中国某白银期货基金在去年12月一度出现了62%的惊人溢价。尽管存在风险，但溢价在1月短暂回落后又迅速飙升至59%，甚至触发了交易停牌。在德银看来，这种“东方定价权”的崛起，为全球金价筑起了一道坚实的底部防线。中国投资者“越涨越买”而在对中国市场的深度调研中，瑞银捕捉到了一个至关重要的结构性变化：高金价虽然抑制了珠宝消费，但却激发了更为猛烈的投资性买需。瑞银在报告中指出，中国市场的“看涨情绪”已处于多年高位。过去，金价上涨往往会吓退中国消费者，但这一次，中国投资者展现出了“越涨越买”的特征。“珠宝转投资”的跷跷板： 瑞银观察到，尽管零售端的珠宝需求因金价过高而出现季节性放缓，但这部分缺口已被激增的实物金条、金币需求完全填补。离岸避险情绪： 瑞银分析称，中国在岸市场强烈的资产保值诉求，驱动资金疯狂涌入黄金ETF。瑞银的数据显示，中国已成为当前全球黄金ETF净流入的最强引擎，这种由“避险+资产轮动”驱动的买盘，比传统的礼品消费更具持续性和规模效应。瑞银：持仓依然偏低，4500美元是“支撑”瑞银策略师Joni Teves则指出，尽管金价经历了大幅波动，但大部分长期机构投资者的黄金配置仍然处于较低水平。 随着金价回落，这些尚未建仓或仓位不足的投资者将获得完美的入场点。瑞银预测，4500美元附近将是强力的技术支撑位，金价有望在未来几个季度重拾升势，并刷新高点。支持这一判断的长期逻辑包括：去美元化持续： 央行需求依然强劲，波兰央行已批准计划，拟将黄金储备从550吨提升至700吨，甚至不惜让黄金在储备中的占比超过30%；韩国央行也表示在考虑结束长达十年的观望，重新增持黄金。瑞银指出，在去美元化和资产多元化的结构性趋势下，央行的“买入补丁”将长期存在。实际收益率钝化： 近几个月，黄金表现出了对美联储加息预期和实际利率上升的“免疫力”，这意味着驱动金价的主轴已从“利率博弈”转向“信用风险对冲”。德银：6000美元目标不变，回调即是入场点对于后市，华尔街的观点高度一致：短期整理，中长期依然“闪耀”。德意志银行坚定地维持了黄金6000美元/盎司的目标价，认为目前的调整只是大趋势中的微小波折。该行分析师Michael Hsueh在2月2日的报告中写道，包括央行买盘在内，黄金的所谓主题驱动因素“依然积极，我们认为投资者配置黄金的理由将不会有变。”巴克莱：黄金矿业股依然具有吸引力而除了现货黄金，巴克莱还给出了一个极具吸引力的套利机会：黄金矿业股。历史经验显示，黄金牛市往往持续2-4年，涨幅可达200%-400%。而自2023年10月以来，本轮牛市涨幅仅170%。更重要的是，矿企的EPS（每股收益）动能尚未完全释放。巴克莱认为矿业股有望在金价企稳后迎来一波猛烈的报复性补涨。黄金市场的这轮“暂停思考”，或许正是为了下一次更强力的冲刺。正如华尔街分析师们所总结的：在法币信用动摇、地缘局势诡谲的2026年，黄金的诱惑力不仅在于避险，更在于它在充满不确定性的世界里，提供了难得的确定性。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USAU":2,"NEM":2,"AEM":2,"01818":2,"VGZ":2,"02899":2,"GLD":2,"AU":2,"EGO":2,"IAU":2,"06693":2,"B":2,"GCmain":2,"HL":2,"MGCmain":2,"02099":2,"GFI":2,"HMY":2,"MGC2602":2,"CDE":2,"EQX":2,"RGLD":2,"01787":2,"XAUUSD.FOREX":2,"03939":2,"KGC":2,"06181":2,"03330":2,"02303":2,"UGL":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}