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现在能看到的现象是openAI奥特曼在促成一个七万亿的芯片增产计划。 AI在各个领域都展现出了强势增长。 比如谷歌gnome在发现新材料上的应用，gnome短时间发现了220万个晶体结构，人类几十年在实验室才能搞出20w 谷歌alphafold短时间测算两亿蛋白，人类从这项技术诞生到现在只搞定两万，以上虽通俗但不严谨的例子只是AI应用的冰山一角。 是算力需求的冰山一角。 机构对实验室的了解比我们更熟悉更有信息差，就像我22年做空nvda时只感觉股价高的离谱不符合当时加息的大环境，直到后面chatgtp出现。才明白机构掌握着关键信息比我们早我们只能透过现象去猜。 现在种种迹象表明，我们看到的影音应用和聊天应用都只是目前AI应用的冰山一角，属于民用级别，这就已经非常震撼。 再举个例子，在军事应用上，自动驾驶飞机可以直接把现役战斗机性能提升30点。载人战斗机需要考虑人体的耐受极限，无人机不需要考虑，很多战斗机不是不能大转弯大加速而是需要考虑飞行员的承受g值。 盘面上，大盘处于牛市超买，恐慌指数72，重度贪婪还没有到极度。回调会有但不会大跌。 从机构持仓逻辑讲在这个位置，如果大盘出现回调，会有很多止损仓转移至nvda，虽然nvda可能也会跌但会比其他股票面好看很多。 未来芯片股还会全面暴涨。 最后在重复一次，未来算力即是国力，算力关乎所有公司的命脉。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 看到年底1200，期权call其实不高但是从感情上很难下手，可以选择操作正股任何时间段全仓买入，如果下跌就加杠杆，每五日均线加0.5倍，未来算力就是国力，决定所有科技行业公司生死，AI热潮会比电动车庞大至少十倍。电车潮只是炒作自动驾驶，芯片潮可以炒作所有电器全自动。 现在能看到的现象是openAI奥特曼在促成一个七万亿的芯片增产计划。 AI在各个领域都展现出了强势增长。 比如谷歌gnome在发现新材料上的应用，gnome短时间发现了220万个晶体结构，人类几十年在实验室才能搞出20w 谷歌alphafold短时间测算两亿蛋白，人类从这项技术诞生到现在只搞定两万，以上虽通俗但不严谨的例子只是AI应用的冰山一角。 是算力需求的冰山一角。 机构对实验室的了解比我们更熟悉更有信息差，就像我22年做空nvda时只感觉股价高的离谱不符合当时加息的大环境，直到后面chatgtp出现。才明白机构掌握着关键信息比我们早我们只能透过现象去猜。 现在种种迹象表明，我们看到的影音应用和聊天应用都只是目前AI应用的冰山一角，属于民用级别，这就已经非常震撼。 再举个例子，在军事应用上，自动驾驶飞机可以直接把现役战斗机性能提升30点。载人战斗机需要考虑人体的耐受极限，无人机不需要考虑，很多战斗机不是不能大转弯大加速而是需要考虑飞行员的承受g值。 盘面上，大盘处于牛市超买，恐慌指数72，重度贪婪还没有到极度。回调会有但不会大跌。 从机构持仓逻辑讲在这个位置，如果大盘出现回调，会有很多止损仓转移至nvda，虽然nvda可能也会跌但会比其他股票面好看很多。 未来芯片股还会全面暴涨。 最后在重复一次，未来算力即是国力，算力关乎所有公司的命脉。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/273531256819776","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":256992472641584,"gmtCreate":1703776298835,"gmtModify":1703776299209,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"title":"瑞幸要销量还是价格？","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LKNCY\">$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$ </a> 市场目前对瑞幸咖啡的盈利预测大多是基于目前的杯单价，是静态的，但市场忽视了库迪不构成威胁后，瑞幸重拾定价能力，就像他在22年和23年一季度那样，单价提高1元，将带来20亿以上的利润增长。目前瑞幸咖啡的杯单价相对于奶茶仍然偏低，有价格优势，这或许是瑞幸咖啡最大的预期差吧，个人觉得，这只是时间的问题！","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LKNCY\">$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$ </a> 市场目前对瑞幸咖啡的盈利预测大多是基于目前的杯单价，是静态的，但市场忽视了库迪不构成威胁后，瑞幸重拾定价能力，就像他在22年和23年一季度那样，单价提高1元，将带来20亿以上的利润增长。目前瑞幸咖啡的杯单价相对于奶茶仍然偏低，有价格优势，这或许是瑞幸咖啡最大的预期差吧，个人觉得，这只是时间的问题！","text":"$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$ 市场目前对瑞幸咖啡的盈利预测大多是基于目前的杯单价，是静态的，但市场忽视了库迪不构成威胁后，瑞幸重拾定价能力，就像他在22年和23年一季度那样，单价提高1元，将带来20亿以上的利润增长。目前瑞幸咖啡的杯单价相对于奶茶仍然偏低，有价格优势，这或许是瑞幸咖啡最大的预期差吧，个人觉得，这只是时间的问题！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/256992472641584","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":273867236167744,"gmtCreate":1707900049339,"gmtModify":1707982770134,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"title":"特斯拉还有未来吗？","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 特斯拉的护城河主要体现在以下几个方面： 品牌和技术领先优势，垂直整合的生产模式，强大的软件能力，超级充电网络，人工智能大模型 人工智能大模型是近年来人工智能领域发展最快的技术之一，它具有强大的学习和推理能力，能够解决传统人工智能难以解决的复杂问题。特斯拉在人工智能大模型方面进行了大量的投资和研究，并取得了一系列成果。 人工智能大模型对特斯拉未来股价的影响主要体现在以下几个方面： 提高自动驾驶系统的性能，推动新业务发展，提高品牌价值，自动驾驶 自动驾驶是未来汽车行业的发展趋势，特斯拉在自动驾驶领域处于领先地位。特斯拉的自动驾驶系统FSD已经在美国部分地区实现了完全自动驾驶，并正在逐步向全球推广。 自动驾驶对特斯拉未来股价的影响主要体现在以下几个方面： 提高汽车销量，增加软件收入，提升品牌价值，机器人 特斯拉人形机器人Optimus是特斯拉最新推出的产品，该机器人可以执行搬运货物、清洁房屋等多种任务。Optimus的推出表明特斯拉正在进军机器人领域。 机器人对特斯拉未来股价的影响主要体现在以下几个方面： 开拓新的市场，增加收入来源，提升品牌价值，总体而言，特斯拉的护城河、人工智能大模型、自动驾驶和机器人等因素都将对特斯拉未来股价产生积极的影响。","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 特斯拉的护城河主要体现在以下几个方面： 品牌和技术领先优势，垂直整合的生产模式，强大的软件能力，超级充电网络，人工智能大模型 人工智能大模型是近年来人工智能领域发展最快的技术之一，它具有强大的学习和推理能力，能够解决传统人工智能难以解决的复杂问题。特斯拉在人工智能大模型方面进行了大量的投资和研究，并取得了一系列成果。 人工智能大模型对特斯拉未来股价的影响主要体现在以下几个方面： 提高自动驾驶系统的性能，推动新业务发展，提高品牌价值，自动驾驶 自动驾驶是未来汽车行业的发展趋势，特斯拉在自动驾驶领域处于领先地位。特斯拉的自动驾驶系统FSD已经在美国部分地区实现了完全自动驾驶，并正在逐步向全球推广。 自动驾驶对特斯拉未来股价的影响主要体现在以下几个方面： 提高汽车销量，增加软件收入，提升品牌价值，机器人 特斯拉人形机器人Optimus是特斯拉最新推出的产品，该机器人可以执行搬运货物、清洁房屋等多种任务。Optimus的推出表明特斯拉正在进军机器人领域。 机器人对特斯拉未来股价的影响主要体现在以下几个方面： 开拓新的市场，增加收入来源，提升品牌价值，总体而言，特斯拉的护城河、人工智能大模型、自动驾驶和机器人等因素都将对特斯拉未来股价产生积极的影响。","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉的护城河主要体现在以下几个方面： 品牌和技术领先优势，垂直整合的生产模式，强大的软件能力，超级充电网络，人工智能大模型 人工智能大模型是近年来人工智能领域发展最快的技术之一，它具有强大的学习和推理能力，能够解决传统人工智能难以解决的复杂问题。特斯拉在人工智能大模型方面进行了大量的投资和研究，并取得了一系列成果。 人工智能大模型对特斯拉未来股价的影响主要体现在以下几个方面： 提高自动驾驶系统的性能，推动新业务发展，提高品牌价值，自动驾驶 自动驾驶是未来汽车行业的发展趋势，特斯拉在自动驾驶领域处于领先地位。特斯拉的自动驾驶系统FSD已经在美国部分地区实现了完全自动驾驶，并正在逐步向全球推广。 自动驾驶对特斯拉未来股价的影响主要体现在以下几个方面： 提高汽车销量，增加软件收入，提升品牌价值，机器人 特斯拉人形机器人Optimus是特斯拉最新推出的产品，该机器人可以执行搬运货物、清洁房屋等多种任务。Optimus的推出表明特斯拉正在进军机器人领域。 机器人对特斯拉未来股价的影响主要体现在以下几个方面： 开拓新的市场，增加收入来源，提升品牌价值，总体而言，特斯拉的护城河、人工智能大模型、自动驾驶和机器人等因素都将对特斯拉未来股价产生积极的影响。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/273867236167744","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3458349567571181","authorId":"3458349567571181","name":"马虎恶魔号","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5309b4545d61bcba8ee06c42836bf26f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3458349567571181","idStr":"3458349567571181"},"content":"没蔚来但是有理想","text":"没蔚来但是有理想","html":"没蔚来但是有理想"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":277894551117832,"gmtCreate":1708871451314,"gmtModify":1708919516204,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"title":"英伟达到底值多少钱，目前市值是否高估，这是一个谜。","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 按照当下的增长速度来看，市值并不算太高估。但这种逆天的业绩增长速度能持续多久，没人能确定。 高盛集团分析师率先将英伟达称作“地球上最重要的股票”，获得了市场的一致认可，从当前的状况来看，这表述算不上搏眼球。毕竟一家公司的业绩短期内对市场的影响甚至超过联储局，绝对称得上“地球上最重要的”级别。 AI热潮之下，美股市场的宽度进一步收窄，进入2024年，除了Meta算是给了一针强心剂外，苹果、特斯拉都跌出了七大科技的行列，指数几乎由英伟达一家拉扯向前。 市场对AI产业的期待，已经抵挡了联储局降息预期的下调。不仅仅是美股，欧洲、日本、美国股市也纷纷创下历史新高。 AI芯片成为当前科技巨头们必备的基础设施，而英伟达在AI芯片领域拥有绝对的垄断地位，可以说是科技巨头们的“军备竞赛”把英伟达股价推到了目前的高位。 亚德尼研究公司创始人Ed Yardeni指出，科技巨头们对GPU的狂热需求，反映在英伟达的股价上，现在的问题是，英伟达是否会面临与思科类似的问题，一旦各大公司拥有足够的服务器和算力来运行AI应用程序，对“AI基础设施”的需求是否也将出现断崖式下跌。 所以说，长期来看，英伟达的不确定性在于两点：人工智能的市场到底有多大？英伟达的竞争地位能否保持？ 2021年openAI发布chatGPT3.0版本时，木头姐的报告预计未来人类还要34年才能启动真正通用的AI系统。但2年后，随着4.0版本的出世，这个时间预期一下子压缩到了8年。按照科技不断加速的特征，可能最快再过2年，人类就能实现真正意义的通用AI系统了。 另外有媒体爆料，Open AI的奥特曼正从中东地区筹集总计高达7万亿美元的资金，以支持OpenAI的一项半导体计划，并与英伟达展开竞争。 7万亿美","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 按照当下的增长速度来看，市值并不算太高估。但这种逆天的业绩增长速度能持续多久，没人能确定。 高盛集团分析师率先将英伟达称作“地球上最重要的股票”，获得了市场的一致认可，从当前的状况来看，这表述算不上搏眼球。毕竟一家公司的业绩短期内对市场的影响甚至超过联储局，绝对称得上“地球上最重要的”级别。 AI热潮之下，美股市场的宽度进一步收窄，进入2024年，除了Meta算是给了一针强心剂外，苹果、特斯拉都跌出了七大科技的行列，指数几乎由英伟达一家拉扯向前。 市场对AI产业的期待，已经抵挡了联储局降息预期的下调。不仅仅是美股，欧洲、日本、美国股市也纷纷创下历史新高。 AI芯片成为当前科技巨头们必备的基础设施，而英伟达在AI芯片领域拥有绝对的垄断地位，可以说是科技巨头们的“军备竞赛”把英伟达股价推到了目前的高位。 亚德尼研究公司创始人Ed Yardeni指出，科技巨头们对GPU的狂热需求，反映在英伟达的股价上，现在的问题是，英伟达是否会面临与思科类似的问题，一旦各大公司拥有足够的服务器和算力来运行AI应用程序，对“AI基础设施”的需求是否也将出现断崖式下跌。 所以说，长期来看，英伟达的不确定性在于两点：人工智能的市场到底有多大？英伟达的竞争地位能否保持？ 2021年openAI发布chatGPT3.0版本时，木头姐的报告预计未来人类还要34年才能启动真正通用的AI系统。但2年后，随着4.0版本的出世，这个时间预期一下子压缩到了8年。按照科技不断加速的特征，可能最快再过2年，人类就能实现真正意义的通用AI系统了。 另外有媒体爆料，Open AI的奥特曼正从中东地区筹集总计高达7万亿美元的资金，以支持OpenAI的一项半导体计划，并与英伟达展开竞争。 7万亿美","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 按照当下的增长速度来看，市值并不算太高估。但这种逆天的业绩增长速度能持续多久，没人能确定。 高盛集团分析师率先将英伟达称作“地球上最重要的股票”，获得了市场的一致认可，从当前的状况来看，这表述算不上搏眼球。毕竟一家公司的业绩短期内对市场的影响甚至超过联储局，绝对称得上“地球上最重要的”级别。 AI热潮之下，美股市场的宽度进一步收窄，进入2024年，除了Meta算是给了一针强心剂外，苹果、特斯拉都跌出了七大科技的行列，指数几乎由英伟达一家拉扯向前。 市场对AI产业的期待，已经抵挡了联储局降息预期的下调。不仅仅是美股，欧洲、日本、美国股市也纷纷创下历史新高。 AI芯片成为当前科技巨头们必备的基础设施，而英伟达在AI芯片领域拥有绝对的垄断地位，可以说是科技巨头们的“军备竞赛”把英伟达股价推到了目前的高位。 亚德尼研究公司创始人Ed Yardeni指出，科技巨头们对GPU的狂热需求，反映在英伟达的股价上，现在的问题是，英伟达是否会面临与思科类似的问题，一旦各大公司拥有足够的服务器和算力来运行AI应用程序，对“AI基础设施”的需求是否也将出现断崖式下跌。 所以说，长期来看，英伟达的不确定性在于两点：人工智能的市场到底有多大？英伟达的竞争地位能否保持？ 2021年openAI发布chatGPT3.0版本时，木头姐的报告预计未来人类还要34年才能启动真正通用的AI系统。但2年后，随着4.0版本的出世，这个时间预期一下子压缩到了8年。按照科技不断加速的特征，可能最快再过2年，人类就能实现真正意义的通用AI系统了。 另外有媒体爆料，Open AI的奥特曼正从中东地区筹集总计高达7万亿美元的资金，以支持OpenAI的一项半导体计划，并与英伟达展开竞争。 7万亿美","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/277894551117832","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7812,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"139002345248559","authorId":"139002345248559","name":"西伯利亚_热狗","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/c7adb852b9fdd620c12ff1b8a65aeb10","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"139002345248559","idStr":"139002345248559"},"content":"综合来讲，英伟达的股票在需要卖之前都值得持有🌚","text":"综合来讲，英伟达的股票在需要卖之前都值得持有🌚","html":"综合来讲，英伟达的股票在需要卖之前都值得持有🌚"},{"author":{"id":"3578981219746994","authorId":"3578981219746994","name":"Howhat","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3578981219746994","idStr":"3578981219746994"},"content":"听君一席话，如听一席话","text":"听君一席话，如听一席话","html":"听君一席话，如听一席话"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":256636968153160,"gmtCreate":1703689409397,"gmtModify":1703689409720,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"title":"瑞幸咖啡到底值多少","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LKNCY\">$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$ </a> 估一下，前三个季度净利润3.55亿USD，4季度咖啡销售淡季，Q4利润打个7折，预计全年4.38亿USD。前年扭亏为盈，连续3年盈利，未来净利润会相对稳定，假设按照24年20%、25年15%、26年10%的净利润增速，预计26年末净利润6.65亿USD。3年后如果按照25倍pe卖出，大概值166亿USD，买点约在83亿USD附近，当前73亿USD。","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/LKNCY\">$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$ </a> 估一下，前三个季度净利润3.55亿USD，4季度咖啡销售淡季，Q4利润打个7折，预计全年4.38亿USD。前年扭亏为盈，连续3年盈利，未来净利润会相对稳定，假设按照24年20%、25年15%、26年10%的净利润增速，预计26年末净利润6.65亿USD。3年后如果按照25倍pe卖出，大概值166亿USD，买点约在83亿USD附近，当前73亿USD。","text":"$瑞幸咖啡(LKNCY)$ 估一下，前三个季度净利润3.55亿USD，4季度咖啡销售淡季，Q4利润打个7折，预计全年4.38亿USD。前年扭亏为盈，连续3年盈利，未来净利润会相对稳定，假设按照24年20%、25年15%、26年10%的净利润增速，预计26年末净利润6.65亿USD。3年后如果按照25倍pe卖出，大概值166亿USD，买点约在83亿USD附近，当前73亿USD。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/256636968153160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":261891097915552,"gmtCreate":1704957162872,"gmtModify":1704972308236,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"title":"10倍的腾讯阿里是否有投资价值？","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$ </a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ </a> 归根到底，互联网企业做的是量，过去的互联网企业在跑马圈地，背后又有大量的廉价成本的风投资金支持，形成了各家在站稳老巢后，都愿意侵略他人，造成了所谓的“无限战争”模式。但随着美联储加息，资金成本越来越高，且互联网增速见顶，烧钱的边际效用下降后，可能数年后回顾今年，正如方丈@不明真相的群众 所说，互联网的投资逻辑可能发生了根本变化，转为分红回购注销，创造股东价值的类似美国科技股的投资逻辑。再过去两年，大量的传闻和新闻也在不断证明：阿里重组高管层，表态清退投资及非核心业务，回归电商主营；腾讯分派美团京东股票，在可见的未来，或许还将通过分派减持的方式回笼资金；字节战略性放弃游戏业务，与腾讯达成有限和解，这些都能反映出在资金成本抬升，互联网人口红利见顶下，资金也开始回归挣踏实钱，挣稳定钱的第一性原理。回到企业本身，10倍的腾讯，股息率1%；不到10倍的阿里，股息1%，分红注销2%，这些都已经有了苹果，谷歌，微软的雏形，就看未来股权激励能否也得到改变，适应增速放缓后的新常态。换句话说，很多人声称巴菲特的价值投资只投10多倍的企业，现在苹果30倍，微软30多倍，谷歌29倍，而10倍的腾讯阿里摆在你面前，只是两年前面对700港币的腾讯，300美金的阿里是号称价值投资的我们，敢不敢，还愿不愿意坚持价值投资呢？","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/00700\">$腾讯控股(00700)$ </a> <a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ </a> 归根到底，互联网企业做的是量，过去的互联网企业在跑马圈地，背后又有大量的廉价成本的风投资金支持，形成了各家在站稳老巢后，都愿意侵略他人，造成了所谓的“无限战争”模式。但随着美联储加息，资金成本越来越高，且互联网增速见顶，烧钱的边际效用下降后，可能数年后回顾今年，正如方丈@不明真相的群众 所说，互联网的投资逻辑可能发生了根本变化，转为分红回购注销，创造股东价值的类似美国科技股的投资逻辑。再过去两年，大量的传闻和新闻也在不断证明：阿里重组高管层，表态清退投资及非核心业务，回归电商主营；腾讯分派美团京东股票，在可见的未来，或许还将通过分派减持的方式回笼资金；字节战略性放弃游戏业务，与腾讯达成有限和解，这些都能反映出在资金成本抬升，互联网人口红利见顶下，资金也开始回归挣踏实钱，挣稳定钱的第一性原理。回到企业本身，10倍的腾讯，股息率1%；不到10倍的阿里，股息1%，分红注销2%，这些都已经有了苹果，谷歌，微软的雏形，就看未来股权激励能否也得到改变，适应增速放缓后的新常态。换句话说，很多人声称巴菲特的价值投资只投10多倍的企业，现在苹果30倍，微软30多倍，谷歌29倍，而10倍的腾讯阿里摆在你面前，只是两年前面对700港币的腾讯，300美金的阿里是号称价值投资的我们，敢不敢，还愿不愿意坚持价值投资呢？","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ $阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 归根到底，互联网企业做的是量，过去的互联网企业在跑马圈地，背后又有大量的廉价成本的风投资金支持，形成了各家在站稳老巢后，都愿意侵略他人，造成了所谓的“无限战争”模式。但随着美联储加息，资金成本越来越高，且互联网增速见顶，烧钱的边际效用下降后，可能数年后回顾今年，正如方丈@不明真相的群众 所说，互联网的投资逻辑可能发生了根本变化，转为分红回购注销，创造股东价值的类似美国科技股的投资逻辑。再过去两年，大量的传闻和新闻也在不断证明：阿里重组高管层，表态清退投资及非核心业务，回归电商主营；腾讯分派美团京东股票，在可见的未来，或许还将通过分派减持的方式回笼资金；字节战略性放弃游戏业务，与腾讯达成有限和解，这些都能反映出在资金成本抬升，互联网人口红利见顶下，资金也开始回归挣踏实钱，挣稳定钱的第一性原理。回到企业本身，10倍的腾讯，股息率1%；不到10倍的阿里，股息1%，分红注销2%，这些都已经有了苹果，谷歌，微软的雏形，就看未来股权激励能否也得到改变，适应增速放缓后的新常态。换句话说，很多人声称巴菲特的价值投资只投10多倍的企业，现在苹果30倍，微软30多倍，谷歌29倍，而10倍的腾讯阿里摆在你面前，只是两年前面对700港币的腾讯，300美金的阿里是号称价值投资的我们，敢不敢，还愿不愿意坚持价值投资呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/261891097915552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3565,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373371787530400,"gmtCreate":1732191138879,"gmtModify":1732191143477,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DXYZ\"> $Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ </a>买","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/DXYZ\"> $Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ </a>买","text":"$Destiny Tech100 Inc(DXYZ)$ 买","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373371787530400","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":256354071679248,"gmtCreate":1703605731645,"gmtModify":1703643579491,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"title":"特斯拉Q4销量走势如何？","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 特斯拉Q4销量基本没有悬念的创出新高，同时由于电池锂价格的大跌整车成本也下降不少，因此Q4销量新高，利润率企稳！2023年特斯拉基本上交出来理想的目标成绩。展望2024，Y的销量估计将增长2成以上，是时候将model3的价格下沉至接近20万左右的位置了，为model2上市先测试一下市场！销量也会有五成的增长，随着美元利率的下降，特斯拉将成功冲破经营的阻力间隙，，另一端高增长区段将在2024至2025的某个Q开始！市场会不会能不能做预期提前抢跑，静静等待！","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 特斯拉Q4销量基本没有悬念的创出新高，同时由于电池锂价格的大跌整车成本也下降不少，因此Q4销量新高，利润率企稳！2023年特斯拉基本上交出来理想的目标成绩。展望2024，Y的销量估计将增长2成以上，是时候将model3的价格下沉至接近20万左右的位置了，为model2上市先测试一下市场！销量也会有五成的增长，随着美元利率的下降，特斯拉将成功冲破经营的阻力间隙，，另一端高增长区段将在2024至2025的某个Q开始！市场会不会能不能做预期提前抢跑，静静等待！","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 特斯拉Q4销量基本没有悬念的创出新高，同时由于电池锂价格的大跌整车成本也下降不少，因此Q4销量新高，利润率企稳！2023年特斯拉基本上交出来理想的目标成绩。展望2024，Y的销量估计将增长2成以上，是时候将model3的价格下沉至接近20万左右的位置了，为model2上市先测试一下市场！销量也会有五成的增长，随着美元利率的下降，特斯拉将成功冲破经营的阻力间隙，，另一端高增长区段将在2024至2025的某个Q开始！市场会不会能不能做预期提前抢跑，静静等待！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/256354071679248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11171,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":276471879520504,"gmtCreate":1708528206454,"gmtModify":1708528212432,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"title":"Sora火爆 有什么受惠股","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$ </a> 微软股价的上涨，有诸多原因去解读，和Sora开发团队OpenAI公司之间“剪不断”的关系，是其中极其重要的一条理由。 事实上，开发Sora产品的OpenAI团队，背后的巨人，资金和资源支持“爸爸”，就是微软。2019年7月，OpenAI最早的天使+轮融资中，微软就投了10亿美元。到2023年，微软合计投资三笔，共计130亿美元资金，成为OpenAI最大的LP持股人，持股比例49%。 我们在下图中，将OpenAI更新产品的关键时间节点，和微软股价变动放在一起。不难看出，微软股价的快速上涨，与OpenAI产品更新，以及其推动的人工智能生成内容生态发展进程，密切相关。","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$ </a> 微软股价的上涨，有诸多原因去解读，和Sora开发团队OpenAI公司之间“剪不断”的关系，是其中极其重要的一条理由。 事实上，开发Sora产品的OpenAI团队，背后的巨人，资金和资源支持“爸爸”，就是微软。2019年7月，OpenAI最早的天使+轮融资中，微软就投了10亿美元。到2023年，微软合计投资三笔，共计130亿美元资金，成为OpenAI最大的LP持股人，持股比例49%。 我们在下图中，将OpenAI更新产品的关键时间节点，和微软股价变动放在一起。不难看出，微软股价的快速上涨，与OpenAI产品更新，以及其推动的人工智能生成内容生态发展进程，密切相关。","text":"$微软(MSFT)$ 微软股价的上涨，有诸多原因去解读，和Sora开发团队OpenAI公司之间“剪不断”的关系，是其中极其重要的一条理由。 事实上，开发Sora产品的OpenAI团队，背后的巨人，资金和资源支持“爸爸”，就是微软。2019年7月，OpenAI最早的天使+轮融资中，微软就投了10亿美元。到2023年，微软合计投资三笔，共计130亿美元资金，成为OpenAI最大的LP持股人，持股比例49%。 我们在下图中，将OpenAI更新产品的关键时间节点，和微软股价变动放在一起。不难看出，微软股价的快速上涨，与OpenAI产品更新，以及其推动的人工智能生成内容生态发展进程，密切相关。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/276471879520504","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3536926156638531","authorId":"3536926156638531","name":"xinffu_37457","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ae5f682bba916af97aaaddbf193a0f6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3536926156638531","idStr":"3536926156638531"},"content":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","html":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":272913144721632,"gmtCreate":1707666979422,"gmtModify":1707670827291,"author":{"id":"4149665799884162","authorId":"4149665799884162","name":"非一般股民","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4149665799884162","idStr":"4149665799884162"},"themes":[],"title":"英伟达到尽头了吗？","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 英伟达这次财报仅比预期小幅度成长，没有太惊人的表现，因为受限于产能及中国市场销售大幅度下滑，下季营收与本季持平，财报结果可能会令投资人失望，造成失望性卖压持续出笼，所以法人机构调高目标价并拉抬股价，准备在财报公布前，大量出货清仓。此时此刻散户的心情应该是很兴奋雀跃的，但高点近在眼前了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://ttm.financial/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 英伟达这次财报仅比预期小幅度成长，没有太惊人的表现，因为受限于产能及中国市场销售大幅度下滑，下季营收与本季持平，财报结果可能会令投资人失望，造成失望性卖压持续出笼，所以法人机构调高目标价并拉抬股价，准备在财报公布前，大量出货清仓。此时此刻散户的心情应该是很兴奋雀跃的，但高点近在眼前了。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 英伟达这次财报仅比预期小幅度成长，没有太惊人的表现，因为受限于产能及中国市场销售大幅度下滑，下季营收与本季持平，财报结果可能会令投资人失望，造成失望性卖压持续出笼，所以法人机构调高目标价并拉抬股价，准备在财报公布前，大量出货清仓。此时此刻散户的心情应该是很兴奋雀跃的，但高点近在眼前了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/272913144721632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5614,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3546249304196282","idStr":"3546249304196282"},"content":"编谎话至少要逻辑正确，供不应求，美国自身都无法满足怎么可能会受中国影响？现在销量和业绩完全取决于产能","text":"编谎话至少要逻辑正确，供不应求，美国自身都无法满足怎么可能会受中国影响？现在销量和业绩完全取决于产能","html":"编谎话至少要逻辑正确，供不应求，美国自身都无法满足怎么可能会受中国影响？现在销量和业绩完全取决于产能"},{"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3546249304196282","idStr":"3546249304196282"},"content":"业绩你以为真是看当期业绩？完全看接下来的产能预期","text":"业绩你以为真是看当期业绩？完全看接下来的产能预期","html":"业绩你以为真是看当期业绩？完全看接下来的产能预期"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
