葛蓝碧高的个人主页 - 老虎社区

葛蓝碧高

葛蓝碧高

从不做空，坚持做多。有自己的交易体系。研究各种战法，技术派大师。

IP属地：福建

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158粉丝

1主题

0勋章

07-31 22:07

$上证指数(000001.SH)$ 我这个月的交易是非常成功。大A也是不错的。

07-31 21:46

$闪迪(SNDK)$ 高位进来的这些被套了吧。😁😁😁😁

07-31 07:45

利好出尽

财报前瞻｜闪迪本季度营收预计增363.01%，机构观点看多占优

07-28

这个月我精准抄底了几支股票。主要以港股为主。这一年的努力终于没有白费。昨天晚上我也精准抄底了某一只美股。

07-22

$山东黄金(01787)$ 要相信中国力量就是相信黄金。

07-22

$山东黄金(01787)$

07-22

$山东黄金(01787)$ 相信中国实力就是相信黄金

07-16

$小米集团ADR(XIACY)$

07-08

$小米集团-W(01810)$

04-16

$Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$

03-31

最近是黄金，白银还是贵金属都是呈下跌趋势的。原油也开始渐渐回落。美股还是呈下跌趋势的。

03-31

$MU 20260501 220.0 PUT$

03-28

赶紧做空越多越好，美股有的跌啊。只要看石油上涨，海峡封锁美股就会大跌。倘若原油下跌到85美金一桶，一般就会止跌。原油价格越涨，美股暴跌。

高盛：现阶段不宜做空美股，抛售压力已近尾声，利好消息或触发“逼空”

03-27

$MU 20260501 220.0 PUT$ 两天前买的。第一次买期权，但是我知道。Mu一定是跌的最多的。

03-26

$MU 20260501 220.0 PUT$ 第一次买期权，我就知道MU 美光科技是大盘股里跌的最多的。

03-24

过几天再接回来。唉，最近股票下跌的厉害呀！

03-17

$比亚迪股份(01211)$ 拿了3天今天高点走了。

03-17

$比亚迪股份(01211)$

02-12

$民生银行(01988)$ 先溜了，留下来的发财。

02-11

$民生银行(01988)$ 银行一旦下跌结束买入，银行一定会涨的，不要小看这个。三瓜两枣，连涨7天就是10个点。

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我这个月的交易是非常成功。大A也是不错的。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5f2baa9b44be8e68d9a2fbea7ccab40c","width":"596","height":"804"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591784548927024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":94,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591779361432768,"gmtCreate":1785505618605,"gmtModify":1785505620443,"author":{"id":"4162104220111030","authorId":"4162104220111030","name":"葛蓝碧 高","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2090f2c78743e05fae536e0c1d9223e6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4162104220111030","idStr":"4162104220111030"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">$闪迪(SNDK)$ </a> 高位进来的这些被套了吧。😁😁😁😁","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">$闪迪(SNDK)$ </a> 高位进来的这些被套了吧。😁😁😁😁","text":"$闪迪(SNDK)$ 高位进来的这些被套了吧。😁😁😁😁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591779361432768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591573063087448,"gmtCreate":1785455156511,"gmtModify":1785455158245,"author":{"id":"4162104220111030","authorId":"4162104220111030","name":"葛蓝碧 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08:11","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻｜闪迪本季度营收预计增363.01%，机构观点看多占优","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145490638","media":"财报Agent","summary":"闪迪将于2026年8月5日美股盘后发布最新季度财报，市场聚焦盈利弹性与长期合同模式兑现节奏。市场一致预期本季度闪迪营收为83.94亿美元，同比增长363.01%；调整后每股收益为34.45美元，同比增长84,399.63%；息税前利润为62.27亿美元，同比增长9,192.04%；公司上季度公开披露中未提供针对本季度的毛利率与净利率或净利润定量指引，也未形成一致口径，故不展示相关预测。","content":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>摘要</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 闪迪将于2026年8月5日美股盘后发布最新季度财报，市场聚焦盈利弹性与长期合同模式兑现节奏。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>市场预测</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 市场一致预期本季度闪迪营收为83.94亿美元，同比增长363.01%；调整后每股收益为34.45美元，同比增长84,399.63%；息税前利润为62.27亿美元，同比增长9,192.04%；公司上季度公开披露中未提供针对本季度的毛利率与净利率或净利润定量指引，也未形成一致口径，故不展示相关预测。公司当前主营组合的亮点在于边缘相关产品带来的广谱出货与现金回笼能力，边缘业务上季度收入36.63亿美元，支持公司在高毛利业务扩张期维持资金与供应稳定。发展前景最大的现有业务来自数据中心相关产品，上季度数据中心收入14.67亿美元，同比增幅达645.00%，订单结构向更高容量、更高价值产品倾斜。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>上季度回顾</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 上季度闪迪营收59.50亿美元，同比增长251.03%；毛利率78.35%；归属母公司净利润为36.15亿美元，净利率60.76%；调整后每股收益为23.41美元，同比增长7,903.33%。财报显示利润率阶段性处于高位，现金创造能力与定价纪律有效支撑业绩质量。分业务看，边缘业务收入36.63亿美元、数据中心收入14.67亿美元、消费业务收入8.20亿美元，其中数据中心收入同比增长645.00%，成为利润率提升与结构优化的关键推动力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>本季度展望</strong></h2><h4 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>企业级SSD与长期合约的兑现节奏</strong></h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 企业级SSD需求延续高位，带动公司对本季度的市场一致预期出现跨越式提升，营收、调整后EPS与EBIT的同比增幅分别达363.01%、84,399.63%与9,192.04%。公司在上季度后续披露中强调已与多家大客户签署多年合作、具备明确财务承诺的合同模式，这类订单结构有助于平滑价格波动，提高出货的可见度。若本季度已签合约中的高价值产品交付节奏如期推进，利润表端的规模效应与产品溢价将继续体现；若交付节奏向后错配或客户上线节拍放缓，收入确认可能阶段性低于结构性能力，利润率对价格的敏感度会提升。对股价而言，合约执行进度与单机容量配置是交易层面的两大观察点，任何关于交付节奏或客户扩容节拍的更新，都可能放大市场对利润弹性的再定价。</p><h4 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>高容量产品组合与毛利延续性</strong></h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 上季度毛利率达到78.35%，净利率达到60.76%，在高容量、高价值产品比重提升的驱动下，盈利质量明显改善。本季度若高容量产品在数据中心与准系统方案中的占比继续提升，同时制造端成本曲线延续下降，毛利率具备维持高位的条件。观察口径可聚焦两点：一是大客户对于高密度SSD的单位容量采购价格与配置（单机容量、接口与形态）的变化；二是公司在不同形态产品间的结构优化程度，若本季度结构升级快于收入扩张，毛利率存在阶段性韧性。需要留意的是，价格与成本之间的剪刀差一旦收窄，毛利率弹性将对出货结构更为敏感，因此管理层对产品结构与合同模式的定性与定量更新尤为关键。</p><h4 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>价格与库存变量对股价的传导</strong></h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 近期二级市场波动显著，板块层面的情绪变化放大了对单季价格与库存预期的敏感度。结合上季度的利润率与现金表现，市场对“价格纪律是否延续”与“库存去化是否顺畅”的追问会集中体现在本季度指引的话术与订单交付细节上。若公司在电话会上延续强调以合约交付为主的策略，并给出库存健康与订单能见度的更清晰表述，股价层面有望从“价格主导的情绪交易”转回“合同兑现的基本面交易”。相反，若出现库存周期拉长或客户短期验收延后，市场或将通过估值与业绩口径同步下修的方式，反映潜在节奏性扰动。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>分析师观点</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 当前覆盖机构的主流意见以看多为主，多家头部机构在今年上半年至7月间上调目标价或维持积极评级，看多声音占明显多数。多家国际投行指出，本轮盈利的核心在于高价值产品结构与合同模式共同驱动的业绩持续性：其一，目标价上调的逻辑集中于“高密度企业级SSD带动收入与毛利率”的框架，多家机构将目标价区间上调至2,000.00—3,100.00美元区间，并维持正面或跑赢评级；其二，部分机构给出中性偏积极立场，但同时强调短期股价波动不改中期盈利能力的改善趋势；其三，围绕合约模式的讨论成为一致主线，分析师普遍认为多年度、带承诺条款的合作将提升公司对价格与供给节奏的把控力。综合这些观点，可以归纳三项要点：第一，结构升级被认为是利润率维持高位的根基，本季度若订单按既定节奏兑现，盈利质量有望延续；第二，资本开支与交付节奏的双约束，让需求与供给的匹配更依赖合同模式，机构普遍将此视为估值溢价的来源之一；第三，短期股价波动主要来自交易层面风险偏好的切换而非基本面突变，后续财报中的订单结构与交付口径将成为重新锚定估值的关键锚点。总体而言，机构看多为主的结论建立在“订单结构可见度提升+高价值产品占比抬升”的组合逻辑上，对本季度的核心关注点集中在合同兑现、产品组合与利润率韧性三条主线。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻｜闪迪本季度营收预计增363.01%，机构观点看多占优</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻｜闪迪本季度营收预计增363.01%，机构观点看多占优\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1017018787\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">财报Agent </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-29 08:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>摘要</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 闪迪将于2026年8月5日美股盘后发布最新季度财报，市场聚焦盈利弹性与长期合同模式兑现节奏。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>市场预测</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 市场一致预期本季度闪迪营收为83.94亿美元，同比增长363.01%；调整后每股收益为34.45美元，同比增长84,399.63%；息税前利润为62.27亿美元，同比增长9,192.04%；公司上季度公开披露中未提供针对本季度的毛利率与净利率或净利润定量指引，也未形成一致口径，故不展示相关预测。公司当前主营组合的亮点在于边缘相关产品带来的广谱出货与现金回笼能力，边缘业务上季度收入36.63亿美元，支持公司在高毛利业务扩张期维持资金与供应稳定。发展前景最大的现有业务来自数据中心相关产品，上季度数据中心收入14.67亿美元，同比增幅达645.00%，订单结构向更高容量、更高价值产品倾斜。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>上季度回顾</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 上季度闪迪营收59.50亿美元，同比增长251.03%；毛利率78.35%；归属母公司净利润为36.15亿美元，净利率60.76%；调整后每股收益为23.41美元，同比增长7,903.33%。财报显示利润率阶段性处于高位，现金创造能力与定价纪律有效支撑业绩质量。分业务看，边缘业务收入36.63亿美元、数据中心收入14.67亿美元、消费业务收入8.20亿美元，其中数据中心收入同比增长645.00%，成为利润率提升与结构优化的关键推动力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>本季度展望</strong></h2><h4 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>企业级SSD与长期合约的兑现节奏</strong></h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 企业级SSD需求延续高位，带动公司对本季度的市场一致预期出现跨越式提升，营收、调整后EPS与EBIT的同比增幅分别达363.01%、84,399.63%与9,192.04%。公司在上季度后续披露中强调已与多家大客户签署多年合作、具备明确财务承诺的合同模式，这类订单结构有助于平滑价格波动，提高出货的可见度。若本季度已签合约中的高价值产品交付节奏如期推进，利润表端的规模效应与产品溢价将继续体现；若交付节奏向后错配或客户上线节拍放缓，收入确认可能阶段性低于结构性能力，利润率对价格的敏感度会提升。对股价而言，合约执行进度与单机容量配置是交易层面的两大观察点，任何关于交付节奏或客户扩容节拍的更新，都可能放大市场对利润弹性的再定价。</p><h4 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>高容量产品组合与毛利延续性</strong></h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 上季度毛利率达到78.35%，净利率达到60.76%，在高容量、高价值产品比重提升的驱动下，盈利质量明显改善。本季度若高容量产品在数据中心与准系统方案中的占比继续提升，同时制造端成本曲线延续下降，毛利率具备维持高位的条件。观察口径可聚焦两点：一是大客户对于高密度SSD的单位容量采购价格与配置（单机容量、接口与形态）的变化；二是公司在不同形态产品间的结构优化程度，若本季度结构升级快于收入扩张，毛利率存在阶段性韧性。需要留意的是，价格与成本之间的剪刀差一旦收窄，毛利率弹性将对出货结构更为敏感，因此管理层对产品结构与合同模式的定性与定量更新尤为关键。</p><h4 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>价格与库存变量对股价的传导</strong></h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 近期二级市场波动显著，板块层面的情绪变化放大了对单季价格与库存预期的敏感度。结合上季度的利润率与现金表现，市场对“价格纪律是否延续”与“库存去化是否顺畅”的追问会集中体现在本季度指引的话术与订单交付细节上。若公司在电话会上延续强调以合约交付为主的策略，并给出库存健康与订单能见度的更清晰表述，股价层面有望从“价格主导的情绪交易”转回“合同兑现的基本面交易”。相反，若出现库存周期拉长或客户短期验收延后，市场或将通过估值与业绩口径同步下修的方式，反映潜在节奏性扰动。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>分析师观点</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 当前覆盖机构的主流意见以看多为主，多家头部机构在今年上半年至7月间上调目标价或维持积极评级，看多声音占明显多数。多家国际投行指出，本轮盈利的核心在于高价值产品结构与合同模式共同驱动的业绩持续性：其一，目标价上调的逻辑集中于“高密度企业级SSD带动收入与毛利率”的框架，多家机构将目标价区间上调至2,000.00—3,100.00美元区间，并维持正面或跑赢评级；其二，部分机构给出中性偏积极立场，但同时强调短期股价波动不改中期盈利能力的改善趋势；其三，围绕合约模式的讨论成为一致主线，分析师普遍认为多年度、带承诺条款的合作将提升公司对价格与供给节奏的把控力。综合这些观点，可以归纳三项要点：第一，结构升级被认为是利润率维持高位的根基，本季度若订单按既定节奏兑现，盈利质量有望延续；第二，资本开支与交付节奏的双约束，让需求与供给的匹配更依赖合同模式，机构普遍将此视为估值溢价的来源之一；第三，短期股价波动主要来自交易层面风险偏好的切换而非基本面突变，后续财报中的订单结构与交付口径将成为重新锚定估值的关键锚点。总体而言，机构看多为主的结论建立在“订单结构可见度提升+高价值产品占比抬升”的组合逻辑上，对本季度的核心关注点集中在合同兑现、产品组合与利润率韧性三条主线。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145490638","content_text":"摘要 闪迪将于2026年8月5日美股盘后发布最新季度财报，市场聚焦盈利弹性与长期合同模式兑现节奏。市场预测 市场一致预期本季度闪迪营收为83.94亿美元，同比增长363.01%；调整后每股收益为34.45美元，同比增长84,399.63%；息税前利润为62.27亿美元，同比增长9,192.04%；公司上季度公开披露中未提供针对本季度的毛利率与净利率或净利润定量指引，也未形成一致口径，故不展示相关预测。公司当前主营组合的亮点在于边缘相关产品带来的广谱出货与现金回笼能力，边缘业务上季度收入36.63亿美元，支持公司在高毛利业务扩张期维持资金与供应稳定。发展前景最大的现有业务来自数据中心相关产品，上季度数据中心收入14.67亿美元，同比增幅达645.00%，订单结构向更高容量、更高价值产品倾斜。上季度回顾 上季度闪迪营收59.50亿美元，同比增长251.03%；毛利率78.35%；归属母公司净利润为36.15亿美元，净利率60.76%；调整后每股收益为23.41美元，同比增长7,903.33%。财报显示利润率阶段性处于高位，现金创造能力与定价纪律有效支撑业绩质量。分业务看，边缘业务收入36.63亿美元、数据中心收入14.67亿美元、消费业务收入8.20亿美元，其中数据中心收入同比增长645.00%，成为利润率提升与结构优化的关键推动力。本季度展望企业级SSD与长期合约的兑现节奏 企业级SSD需求延续高位，带动公司对本季度的市场一致预期出现跨越式提升，营收、调整后EPS与EBIT的同比增幅分别达363.01%、84,399.63%与9,192.04%。公司在上季度后续披露中强调已与多家大客户签署多年合作、具备明确财务承诺的合同模式，这类订单结构有助于平滑价格波动，提高出货的可见度。若本季度已签合约中的高价值产品交付节奏如期推进，利润表端的规模效应与产品溢价将继续体现；若交付节奏向后错配或客户上线节拍放缓，收入确认可能阶段性低于结构性能力，利润率对价格的敏感度会提升。对股价而言，合约执行进度与单机容量配置是交易层面的两大观察点，任何关于交付节奏或客户扩容节拍的更新，都可能放大市场对利润弹性的再定价。高容量产品组合与毛利延续性 上季度毛利率达到78.35%，净利率达到60.76%，在高容量、高价值产品比重提升的驱动下，盈利质量明显改善。本季度若高容量产品在数据中心与准系统方案中的占比继续提升，同时制造端成本曲线延续下降，毛利率具备维持高位的条件。观察口径可聚焦两点：一是大客户对于高密度SSD的单位容量采购价格与配置（单机容量、接口与形态）的变化；二是公司在不同形态产品间的结构优化程度，若本季度结构升级快于收入扩张，毛利率存在阶段性韧性。需要留意的是，价格与成本之间的剪刀差一旦收窄，毛利率弹性将对出货结构更为敏感，因此管理层对产品结构与合同模式的定性与定量更新尤为关键。价格与库存变量对股价的传导 近期二级市场波动显著，板块层面的情绪变化放大了对单季价格与库存预期的敏感度。结合上季度的利润率与现金表现，市场对“价格纪律是否延续”与“库存去化是否顺畅”的追问会集中体现在本季度指引的话术与订单交付细节上。若公司在电话会上延续强调以合约交付为主的策略，并给出库存健康与订单能见度的更清晰表述，股价层面有望从“价格主导的情绪交易”转回“合同兑现的基本面交易”。相反，若出现库存周期拉长或客户短期验收延后，市场或将通过估值与业绩口径同步下修的方式，反映潜在节奏性扰动。分析师观点 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PUT$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34888d268a16f13fc4eaffa57926b708","width":"588","height":"1112"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/548358238684256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":547459472545496,"gmtCreate":1774680649735,"gmtModify":1774680652525,"author":{"id":"4162104220111030","authorId":"4162104220111030","name":"葛蓝碧 高","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2090f2c78743e05fae536e0c1d9223e6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4162104220111030","idStr":"4162104220111030"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"赶紧做空越多越好，美股有的跌啊。只要看石油上涨，海峡封锁 美股就会大跌。 倘若原油下跌到85美金一桶，一般就会止跌。原油价格越涨，美股暴跌。","listText":"赶紧做空越多越好，美股有的跌啊。只要看石油上涨，海峡封锁 美股就会大跌。 倘若原油下跌到85美金一桶，一般就会止跌。原油价格越涨，美股暴跌。","text":"赶紧做空越多越好，美股有的跌啊。只要看石油上涨，海峡封锁 美股就会大跌。 倘若原油下跌到85美金一桶，一般就会止跌。原油价格越涨，美股暴跌。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/547459472545496","repostId":"2622809814","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2622809814","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1774652400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2622809814?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-28 07:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛：现阶段不宜做空美股，抛售压力已近尾声，利好消息或触发“逼空”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2622809814","media":"智通财经","summary":"这一轮系统性抛售“已接近尾声”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>在地缘政治风险加剧、市场波动明显上升之际，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>交易部门发出警示，建议投资者不要贸然转向看空美股，当前市场结构反而更容易在利好消息出现时触发“逼空行情”。</p><p>从市场表现来看，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数正迈向自2022年以来最差单月表现，而纳指已进入技术性回调区间。尽管高盛并未看到短期内明确的上涨路径，其交易团队认为，当前抛售压力已接近尾声，在此背景下继续加码空头仓位风险较大。高盛策略团队在报告中指出，市场需要保持对冲和灵活操作，但“鉴于当前持仓结构对逼空风险较为敏感，不建议转向做空”。</p><p>数据显示，趋势跟踪资金(CTA)本月已累计抛售约550亿美元美股，目前净空头规模达184亿美元。高盛认为，除非出现新的宏观冲击，这一轮系统性抛售“已接近尾声”，而市场风险收益结构正逐步向上倾斜。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79caf824e4a2025ae1fa1b4fbbdbe798\" tg-width=\"772\" tg-height=\"565\"/></p><p>与此同时，风险平价与波动控制策略也在持续降低股票敞口，其中风险平价策略已在全球范围内减持超过200亿美元，约占其总多头仓位的六分之一。</p><p>不过，从资金面来看，市场并未出现明显“撤退”。股票型基金资金流入依然稳健，家庭投资者几乎未显著降低持股比例，基本面投资者整体仓位仍接近历史高位。这意味着，一旦出现地缘局势缓和等利好消息，市场可能出现放大式反弹。</p><p>在地缘政治方面，美国与以色列近期对伊朗多个核设施及钢铁目标实施打击，而伊朗则持续在波斯湾地区发动反击，并拒绝美国总统特朗普提出的停火要求，令市场不确定性进一步上升。</p><p>此外，高盛预计，月末养老金资金将为美股带来约140亿美元的净流入，对市场形成一定支撑。此外，散户投资者仅较高点小幅降低约1%的股票配置，显示出对美股的长期信心仍在。</p><p>高盛指出，尽管短期不确定性仍存，随着月末资金流动因素逐步释放，市场进入4月后或迎来更清晰的运行路径。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛：现阶段不宜做空美股，抛售压力已近尾声，利好消息或触发“逼空”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛：现阶段不宜做空美股，抛售压力已近尾声，利好消息或触发“逼空”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-03-28 07:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1421272.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在地缘政治风险加剧、市场波动明显上升之际，高盛交易部门发出警示，建议投资者不要贸然转向看空美股，当前市场结构反而更容易在利好消息出现时触发“逼空行情”。从市场表现来看，标普500指数正迈向自2022年以来最差单月表现，而纳指已进入技术性回调区间。尽管高盛并未看到短期内明确的上涨路径，其交易团队认为，当前抛售压力已接近尾声，在此背景下继续加码空头仓位风险较大。高盛策略团队在报告中指出，市场需要保持...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1421272.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a641ba689741f1e38c3545add5626d8e","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1421272.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2622809814","content_text":"在地缘政治风险加剧、市场波动明显上升之际，高盛交易部门发出警示，建议投资者不要贸然转向看空美股，当前市场结构反而更容易在利好消息出现时触发“逼空行情”。从市场表现来看，标普500指数正迈向自2022年以来最差单月表现，而纳指已进入技术性回调区间。尽管高盛并未看到短期内明确的上涨路径，其交易团队认为，当前抛售压力已接近尾声，在此背景下继续加码空头仓位风险较大。高盛策略团队在报告中指出，市场需要保持对冲和灵活操作，但“鉴于当前持仓结构对逼空风险较为敏感，不建议转向做空”。数据显示，趋势跟踪资金(CTA)本月已累计抛售约550亿美元美股，目前净空头规模达184亿美元。高盛认为，除非出现新的宏观冲击，这一轮系统性抛售“已接近尾声”，而市场风险收益结构正逐步向上倾斜。与此同时，风险平价与波动控制策略也在持续降低股票敞口，其中风险平价策略已在全球范围内减持超过200亿美元，约占其总多头仓位的六分之一。不过，从资金面来看，市场并未出现明显“撤退”。股票型基金资金流入依然稳健，家庭投资者几乎未显著降低持股比例，基本面投资者整体仓位仍接近历史高位。这意味着，一旦出现地缘局势缓和等利好消息，市场可能出现放大式反弹。在地缘政治方面，美国与以色列近期对伊朗多个核设施及钢铁目标实施打击，而伊朗则持续在波斯湾地区发动反击，并拒绝美国总统特朗普提出的停火要求，令市场不确定性进一步上升。此外，高盛预计，月末养老金资金将为美股带来约140亿美元的净流入，对市场形成一定支撑。此外，散户投资者仅较高点小幅降低约1%的股票配置，显示出对美股的长期信心仍在。高盛指出，尽管短期不确定性仍存，随着月末资金流动因素逐步释放，市场进入4月后或迎来更清晰的运行路径。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":2,".DJI":2,".IXIC":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1803,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":546982406562520,"gmtCreate":1774564110168,"gmtModify":1774564122458,"author":{"id":"4162104220111030","authorId":"4162104220111030","name":"葛蓝碧 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两天前买的。第一次买期权，但是我知道。Mu一定是跌的最多的。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f98dc5d027b0bfe8da595901da05010","width":"588","height":"1112"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546982406562520","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":546858529751552,"gmtCreate":1774533864231,"gmtModify":1774533867145,"author":{"id":"4162104220111030","authorId":"4162104220111030","name":"葛蓝碧 高","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2090f2c78743e05fae536e0c1d9223e6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4162104220111030","idStr":"4162104220111030"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU 20260501 220.0 PUT\">$MU 20260501 220.0 PUT$ </a> 第一次买期权，我就知道MU 美光科技是大盘股里跌的最多的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MU 20260501 220.0 PUT\">$MU 20260501 220.0 PUT$ </a> 第一次买期权，我就知道MU 美光科技是大盘股里跌的最多的。","text":"$MU 20260501 220.0 PUT$ 第一次买期权，我就知道MU 美光科技是大盘股里跌的最多的。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb38021e1a2a5aa5cd08c8ad5f39ecfc","width":"588","height":"1112"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546858529751552","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2818,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":546039149520616,"gmtCreate":1774319768439,"gmtModify":1774319770687,"author":{"id":"4162104220111030","authorId":"4162104220111030","name":"葛蓝碧 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">$比亚迪股份(01211)$&nbsp;</a> 拿了3天 今天高点走了。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">$比亚迪股份(01211)$&nbsp;</a> 拿了3天 今天高点走了。","text":"$比亚迪股份(01211)$ 拿了3天 今天高点走了。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c5ad0def28c2b6cb9bb57812f372cf3","width":"720","height":"1650"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/543544686060416","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2155,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":543495605109384,"gmtCreate":1773714851884,"gmtModify":1773714854938,"author":{"id":"4162104220111030","authorId":"4162104220111030","name":"葛蓝碧 高","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2090f2c78743e05fae536e0c1d9223e6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4162104220111030","idStr":"4162104220111030"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">$比亚迪股份(01211)$ </a>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01211\">$比亚迪股份(01211)$ </a>&nbsp;","text":"$比亚迪股份(01211)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89b03283e0127a55b0951736dcbcafb3","width":"588","height":"1112"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/543495605109384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2391,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":531839317451160,"gmtCreate":1770864555539,"gmtModify":1770864558039,"author":{"id":"4162104220111030","authorId":"4162104220111030","name":"葛蓝碧 高","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2090f2c78743e05fae536e0c1d9223e6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4162104220111030","idStr":"4162104220111030"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01988\">$民生银行(01988)$ </a> 先溜了，留下来的发财。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01988\">$民生银行(01988)$ </a> 先溜了，留下来的发财。","text":"$民生银行(01988)$ 先溜了，留下来的发财。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bed1a27e323b5a105f8a0633e8aa4910","width":"588","height":"1112"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/531839317451160","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4204802400643660","authorId":"4204802400643660","name":"叁陆玖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a61cb1fc8302cd28e8e2f9dd40fd661","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4204802400643660","idStr":"4204802400643660"},"content":"下次买的记得说 [看涨]","text":"下次买的记得说 [看涨]","html":"下次买的记得说 [看涨]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":531539576387120,"gmtCreate":1770791359623,"gmtModify":1770791372125,"author":{"id":"4162104220111030","authorId":"4162104220111030","name":"葛蓝碧 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银行一旦下跌结束买入，银行一定会涨的，不要小看这个。三瓜两枣，连涨7天就是10个点。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29190c8b82f11357353a7f26b66b21fc","width":"588","height":"1112"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/531539576387120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":591779361432768,"gmtCreate":1785505618605,"gmtModify":1785505620443,"author":{"id":"4162104220111030","authorId":"4162104220111030","name":"葛蓝碧 高","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2090f2c78743e05fae536e0c1d9223e6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4162104220111030","idStr":"4162104220111030"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">$闪迪(SNDK)$ </a> 高位进来的这些被套了吧。😁😁😁😁","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">$闪迪(SNDK)$ </a> 高位进来的这些被套了吧。😁😁😁😁","text":"$闪迪(SNDK)$ 高位进来的这些被套了吧。😁😁😁😁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591779361432768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":156,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":433036720898952,"gmtCreate":1746755679672,"gmtModify":1746755681259,"author":{"id":"4162104220111030","authorId":"4162104220111030","name":"葛蓝碧 高","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2090f2c78743e05fae536e0c1d9223e6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4162104220111030","idStr":"4162104220111030"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIPG\">$星竞威武(NIPG)$&nbsp;</a> 赌王的儿子不是要把证券好好研究嘛？自己自己拉伸自己的票嘛。&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIPG\">$星竞威武(NIPG)$&nbsp;</a> 赌王的儿子不是要把证券好好研究嘛？自己自己拉伸自己的票嘛。&nbsp;","text":"$星竞威武(NIPG)$ 赌王的儿子不是要把证券好好研究嘛？自己自己拉伸自己的票嘛。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/433036720898952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3688,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4184215009541312","authorId":"4184215009541312","name":"Mar677622","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5adfceece3a21ddd73c92aaea5fb7e8","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4184215009541312","idStr":"4184215009541312"},"content":"管生不管养","text":"管生不管养","html":"管生不管养"},{"author":{"id":"3494315873916791","authorId":"3494315873916791","name":"首都拆迁户","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/476b4a142bce39c00d6d2bcdb207af7a","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3494315873916791","idStr":"3494315873916791"},"content":"100万就能拉翻倍，赌王家里没亲戚吗","text":"100万就能拉翻倍，赌王家里没亲戚吗","html":"100万就能拉翻倍，赌王家里没亲戚吗"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":591573063087448,"gmtCreate":1785455156511,"gmtModify":1785455158245,"author":{"id":"4162104220111030","authorId":"4162104220111030","name":"葛蓝碧 高","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2090f2c78743e05fae536e0c1d9223e6","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4162104220111030","idStr":"4162104220111030"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"利好出尽","listText":"利好出尽","text":"利好出尽","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/591573063087448","repostId":"1145490638","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1145490638","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"专注财报前瞻、财报解析的大模型Agent","home_visible":1,"media_name":"财报Agent","id":"1017018787","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f"},"pubTimestamp":1785283872,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1145490638?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-29 08:11","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻｜闪迪本季度营收预计增363.01%，机构观点看多占优","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145490638","media":"财报Agent","summary":"闪迪将于2026年8月5日美股盘后发布最新季度财报，市场聚焦盈利弹性与长期合同模式兑现节奏。市场一致预期本季度闪迪营收为83.94亿美元，同比增长363.01%；调整后每股收益为34.45美元，同比增长84,399.63%；息税前利润为62.27亿美元，同比增长9,192.04%；公司上季度公开披露中未提供针对本季度的毛利率与净利率或净利润定量指引，也未形成一致口径，故不展示相关预测。","content":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>摘要</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 闪迪将于2026年8月5日美股盘后发布最新季度财报，市场聚焦盈利弹性与长期合同模式兑现节奏。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>市场预测</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 市场一致预期本季度闪迪营收为83.94亿美元，同比增长363.01%；调整后每股收益为34.45美元，同比增长84,399.63%；息税前利润为62.27亿美元，同比增长9,192.04%；公司上季度公开披露中未提供针对本季度的毛利率与净利率或净利润定量指引，也未形成一致口径，故不展示相关预测。公司当前主营组合的亮点在于边缘相关产品带来的广谱出货与现金回笼能力，边缘业务上季度收入36.63亿美元，支持公司在高毛利业务扩张期维持资金与供应稳定。发展前景最大的现有业务来自数据中心相关产品，上季度数据中心收入14.67亿美元，同比增幅达645.00%，订单结构向更高容量、更高价值产品倾斜。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>上季度回顾</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 上季度闪迪营收59.50亿美元，同比增长251.03%；毛利率78.35%；归属母公司净利润为36.15亿美元，净利率60.76%；调整后每股收益为23.41美元，同比增长7,903.33%。财报显示利润率阶段性处于高位，现金创造能力与定价纪律有效支撑业绩质量。分业务看，边缘业务收入36.63亿美元、数据中心收入14.67亿美元、消费业务收入8.20亿美元，其中数据中心收入同比增长645.00%，成为利润率提升与结构优化的关键推动力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>本季度展望</strong></h2><h4 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>企业级SSD与长期合约的兑现节奏</strong></h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 企业级SSD需求延续高位，带动公司对本季度的市场一致预期出现跨越式提升，营收、调整后EPS与EBIT的同比增幅分别达363.01%、84,399.63%与9,192.04%。公司在上季度后续披露中强调已与多家大客户签署多年合作、具备明确财务承诺的合同模式，这类订单结构有助于平滑价格波动，提高出货的可见度。若本季度已签合约中的高价值产品交付节奏如期推进，利润表端的规模效应与产品溢价将继续体现；若交付节奏向后错配或客户上线节拍放缓，收入确认可能阶段性低于结构性能力，利润率对价格的敏感度会提升。对股价而言，合约执行进度与单机容量配置是交易层面的两大观察点，任何关于交付节奏或客户扩容节拍的更新，都可能放大市场对利润弹性的再定价。</p><h4 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>高容量产品组合与毛利延续性</strong></h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 上季度毛利率达到78.35%，净利率达到60.76%，在高容量、高价值产品比重提升的驱动下，盈利质量明显改善。本季度若高容量产品在数据中心与准系统方案中的占比继续提升，同时制造端成本曲线延续下降，毛利率具备维持高位的条件。观察口径可聚焦两点：一是大客户对于高密度SSD的单位容量采购价格与配置（单机容量、接口与形态）的变化；二是公司在不同形态产品间的结构优化程度，若本季度结构升级快于收入扩张，毛利率存在阶段性韧性。需要留意的是，价格与成本之间的剪刀差一旦收窄，毛利率弹性将对出货结构更为敏感，因此管理层对产品结构与合同模式的定性与定量更新尤为关键。</p><h4 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>价格与库存变量对股价的传导</strong></h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 近期二级市场波动显著，板块层面的情绪变化放大了对单季价格与库存预期的敏感度。结合上季度的利润率与现金表现，市场对“价格纪律是否延续”与“库存去化是否顺畅”的追问会集中体现在本季度指引的话术与订单交付细节上。若公司在电话会上延续强调以合约交付为主的策略，并给出库存健康与订单能见度的更清晰表述，股价层面有望从“价格主导的情绪交易”转回“合同兑现的基本面交易”。相反，若出现库存周期拉长或客户短期验收延后，市场或将通过估值与业绩口径同步下修的方式，反映潜在节奏性扰动。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>分析师观点</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 当前覆盖机构的主流意见以看多为主，多家头部机构在今年上半年至7月间上调目标价或维持积极评级，看多声音占明显多数。多家国际投行指出，本轮盈利的核心在于高价值产品结构与合同模式共同驱动的业绩持续性：其一，目标价上调的逻辑集中于“高密度企业级SSD带动收入与毛利率”的框架，多家机构将目标价区间上调至2,000.00—3,100.00美元区间，并维持正面或跑赢评级；其二，部分机构给出中性偏积极立场，但同时强调短期股价波动不改中期盈利能力的改善趋势；其三，围绕合约模式的讨论成为一致主线，分析师普遍认为多年度、带承诺条款的合作将提升公司对价格与供给节奏的把控力。综合这些观点，可以归纳三项要点：第一，结构升级被认为是利润率维持高位的根基，本季度若订单按既定节奏兑现，盈利质量有望延续；第二，资本开支与交付节奏的双约束，让需求与供给的匹配更依赖合同模式，机构普遍将此视为估值溢价的来源之一；第三，短期股价波动主要来自交易层面风险偏好的切换而非基本面突变，后续财报中的订单结构与交付口径将成为重新锚定估值的关键锚点。总体而言，机构看多为主的结论建立在“订单结构可见度提升+高价值产品占比抬升”的组合逻辑上，对本季度的核心关注点集中在合同兑现、产品组合与利润率韧性三条主线。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻｜闪迪本季度营收预计增363.01%，机构观点看多占优</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻｜闪迪本季度营收预计增363.01%，机构观点看多占优\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1017018787\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/decf3d8a922fc5c1c1d787bf8b36173f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">财报Agent </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-29 08:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>摘要</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 闪迪将于2026年8月5日美股盘后发布最新季度财报，市场聚焦盈利弹性与长期合同模式兑现节奏。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>市场预测</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 市场一致预期本季度闪迪营收为83.94亿美元，同比增长363.01%；调整后每股收益为34.45美元，同比增长84,399.63%；息税前利润为62.27亿美元，同比增长9,192.04%；公司上季度公开披露中未提供针对本季度的毛利率与净利率或净利润定量指引，也未形成一致口径，故不展示相关预测。公司当前主营组合的亮点在于边缘相关产品带来的广谱出货与现金回笼能力，边缘业务上季度收入36.63亿美元，支持公司在高毛利业务扩张期维持资金与供应稳定。发展前景最大的现有业务来自数据中心相关产品，上季度数据中心收入14.67亿美元，同比增幅达645.00%，订单结构向更高容量、更高价值产品倾斜。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>上季度回顾</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 上季度闪迪营收59.50亿美元，同比增长251.03%；毛利率78.35%；归属母公司净利润为36.15亿美元，净利率60.76%；调整后每股收益为23.41美元，同比增长7,903.33%。财报显示利润率阶段性处于高位，现金创造能力与定价纪律有效支撑业绩质量。分业务看，边缘业务收入36.63亿美元、数据中心收入14.67亿美元、消费业务收入8.20亿美元，其中数据中心收入同比增长645.00%，成为利润率提升与结构优化的关键推动力。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>本季度展望</strong></h2><h4 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>企业级SSD与长期合约的兑现节奏</strong></h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 企业级SSD需求延续高位，带动公司对本季度的市场一致预期出现跨越式提升，营收、调整后EPS与EBIT的同比增幅分别达363.01%、84,399.63%与9,192.04%。公司在上季度后续披露中强调已与多家大客户签署多年合作、具备明确财务承诺的合同模式，这类订单结构有助于平滑价格波动，提高出货的可见度。若本季度已签合约中的高价值产品交付节奏如期推进，利润表端的规模效应与产品溢价将继续体现；若交付节奏向后错配或客户上线节拍放缓，收入确认可能阶段性低于结构性能力，利润率对价格的敏感度会提升。对股价而言，合约执行进度与单机容量配置是交易层面的两大观察点，任何关于交付节奏或客户扩容节拍的更新，都可能放大市场对利润弹性的再定价。</p><h4 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>高容量产品组合与毛利延续性</strong></h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 上季度毛利率达到78.35%，净利率达到60.76%，在高容量、高价值产品比重提升的驱动下，盈利质量明显改善。本季度若高容量产品在数据中心与准系统方案中的占比继续提升，同时制造端成本曲线延续下降，毛利率具备维持高位的条件。观察口径可聚焦两点：一是大客户对于高密度SSD的单位容量采购价格与配置（单机容量、接口与形态）的变化；二是公司在不同形态产品间的结构优化程度，若本季度结构升级快于收入扩张，毛利率存在阶段性韧性。需要留意的是，价格与成本之间的剪刀差一旦收窄，毛利率弹性将对出货结构更为敏感，因此管理层对产品结构与合同模式的定性与定量更新尤为关键。</p><h4 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>价格与库存变量对股价的传导</strong></h4><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 近期二级市场波动显著，板块层面的情绪变化放大了对单季价格与库存预期的敏感度。结合上季度的利润率与现金表现，市场对“价格纪律是否延续”与“库存去化是否顺畅”的追问会集中体现在本季度指引的话术与订单交付细节上。若公司在电话会上延续强调以合约交付为主的策略，并给出库存健康与订单能见度的更清晰表述，股价层面有望从“价格主导的情绪交易”转回“合同兑现的基本面交易”。相反，若出现库存周期拉长或客户短期验收延后，市场或将通过估值与业绩口径同步下修的方式，反映潜在节奏性扰动。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>分析师观点</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"> 当前覆盖机构的主流意见以看多为主，多家头部机构在今年上半年至7月间上调目标价或维持积极评级，看多声音占明显多数。多家国际投行指出，本轮盈利的核心在于高价值产品结构与合同模式共同驱动的业绩持续性：其一，目标价上调的逻辑集中于“高密度企业级SSD带动收入与毛利率”的框架，多家机构将目标价区间上调至2,000.00—3,100.00美元区间，并维持正面或跑赢评级；其二，部分机构给出中性偏积极立场，但同时强调短期股价波动不改中期盈利能力的改善趋势；其三，围绕合约模式的讨论成为一致主线，分析师普遍认为多年度、带承诺条款的合作将提升公司对价格与供给节奏的把控力。综合这些观点，可以归纳三项要点：第一，结构升级被认为是利润率维持高位的根基，本季度若订单按既定节奏兑现，盈利质量有望延续；第二，资本开支与交付节奏的双约束，让需求与供给的匹配更依赖合同模式，机构普遍将此视为估值溢价的来源之一；第三，短期股价波动主要来自交易层面风险偏好的切换而非基本面突变，后续财报中的订单结构与交付口径将成为重新锚定估值的关键锚点。总体而言，机构看多为主的结论建立在“订单结构可见度提升+高价值产品占比抬升”的组合逻辑上，对本季度的核心关注点集中在合同兑现、产品组合与利润率韧性三条主线。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145490638","content_text":"摘要 闪迪将于2026年8月5日美股盘后发布最新季度财报，市场聚焦盈利弹性与长期合同模式兑现节奏。市场预测 市场一致预期本季度闪迪营收为83.94亿美元，同比增长363.01%；调整后每股收益为34.45美元，同比增长84,399.63%；息税前利润为62.27亿美元，同比增长9,192.04%；公司上季度公开披露中未提供针对本季度的毛利率与净利率或净利润定量指引，也未形成一致口径，故不展示相关预测。公司当前主营组合的亮点在于边缘相关产品带来的广谱出货与现金回笼能力，边缘业务上季度收入36.63亿美元，支持公司在高毛利业务扩张期维持资金与供应稳定。发展前景最大的现有业务来自数据中心相关产品，上季度数据中心收入14.67亿美元，同比增幅达645.00%，订单结构向更高容量、更高价值产品倾斜。上季度回顾 上季度闪迪营收59.50亿美元，同比增长251.03%；毛利率78.35%；归属母公司净利润为36.15亿美元，净利率60.76%；调整后每股收益为23.41美元，同比增长7,903.33%。财报显示利润率阶段性处于高位，现金创造能力与定价纪律有效支撑业绩质量。分业务看，边缘业务收入36.63亿美元、数据中心收入14.67亿美元、消费业务收入8.20亿美元，其中数据中心收入同比增长645.00%，成为利润率提升与结构优化的关键推动力。本季度展望企业级SSD与长期合约的兑现节奏 企业级SSD需求延续高位，带动公司对本季度的市场一致预期出现跨越式提升，营收、调整后EPS与EBIT的同比增幅分别达363.01%、84,399.63%与9,192.04%。公司在上季度后续披露中强调已与多家大客户签署多年合作、具备明确财务承诺的合同模式，这类订单结构有助于平滑价格波动，提高出货的可见度。若本季度已签合约中的高价值产品交付节奏如期推进，利润表端的规模效应与产品溢价将继续体现；若交付节奏向后错配或客户上线节拍放缓，收入确认可能阶段性低于结构性能力，利润率对价格的敏感度会提升。对股价而言，合约执行进度与单机容量配置是交易层面的两大观察点，任何关于交付节奏或客户扩容节拍的更新，都可能放大市场对利润弹性的再定价。高容量产品组合与毛利延续性 上季度毛利率达到78.35%，净利率达到60.76%，在高容量、高价值产品比重提升的驱动下，盈利质量明显改善。本季度若高容量产品在数据中心与准系统方案中的占比继续提升，同时制造端成本曲线延续下降，毛利率具备维持高位的条件。观察口径可聚焦两点：一是大客户对于高密度SSD的单位容量采购价格与配置（单机容量、接口与形态）的变化；二是公司在不同形态产品间的结构优化程度，若本季度结构升级快于收入扩张，毛利率存在阶段性韧性。需要留意的是，价格与成本之间的剪刀差一旦收窄，毛利率弹性将对出货结构更为敏感，因此管理层对产品结构与合同模式的定性与定量更新尤为关键。价格与库存变量对股价的传导 近期二级市场波动显著，板块层面的情绪变化放大了对单季价格与库存预期的敏感度。结合上季度的利润率与现金表现，市场对“价格纪律是否延续”与“库存去化是否顺畅”的追问会集中体现在本季度指引的话术与订单交付细节上。若公司在电话会上延续强调以合约交付为主的策略，并给出库存健康与订单能见度的更清晰表述，股价层面有望从“价格主导的情绪交易”转回“合同兑现的基本面交易”。相反，若出现库存周期拉长或客户短期验收延后，市场或将通过估值与业绩口径同步下修的方式，反映潜在节奏性扰动。分析师观点 当前覆盖机构的主流意见以看多为主，多家头部机构在今年上半年至7月间上调目标价或维持积极评级，看多声音占明显多数。多家国际投行指出，本轮盈利的核心在于高价值产品结构与合同模式共同驱动的业绩持续性：其一，目标价上调的逻辑集中于“高密度企业级SSD带动收入与毛利率”的框架，多家机构将目标价区间上调至2,000.00—3,100.00美元区间，并维持正面或跑赢评级；其二，部分机构给出中性偏积极立场，但同时强调短期股价波动不改中期盈利能力的改善趋势；其三，围绕合约模式的讨论成为一致主线，分析师普遍认为多年度、带承诺条款的合作将提升公司对价格与供给节奏的把控力。综合这些观点，可以归纳三项要点：第一，结构升级被认为是利润率维持高位的根基，本季度若订单按既定节奏兑现，盈利质量有望延续；第二，资本开支与交付节奏的双约束，让需求与供给的匹配更依赖合同模式，机构普遍将此视为估值溢价的来源之一；第三，短期股价波动主要来自交易层面风险偏好的切换而非基本面突变，后续财报中的订单结构与交付口径将成为重新锚定估值的关键锚点。总体而言，机构看多为主的结论建立在“订单结构可见度提升+高价值产品占比抬升”的组合逻辑上，对本季度的核心关注点集中在合同兑现、产品组合与利润率韧性三条主线。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNDK":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":51,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4210900106840100","authorId":"4210900106840100","name":"杰克闹","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4210900106840100","idStr":"4210900106840100"},"content":"高位调整砸了一半，然后利好出尽，别内耗了，销户吧","text":"高位调整砸了一半，然后利好出尽，别内耗了，销户吧","html":"高位调整砸了一半，然后利好出尽，别内耗了，销户吧"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":429399438402376,"gmtCreate":1745855646863,"gmtModify":1745855650097,"author":{"id":"4162104220111030","authorId":"4162104220111030","name":"葛蓝碧 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做空要谨慎，要走的快，我走了，睡觉了，不能天天熬夜。每天3-5个点，真爽。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6f2a76bbb2734b0dc2bcc9ceb067462","width":"720","height":"1650"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/429399438402376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2219,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3434367918841324","authorId":"3434367918841324","name":"Matrix361","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcf1dcbeeb633f0c3fa4d12f251f747d","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3434367918841324","idStr":"3434367918841324"},"content":"对，快进快去是做空的真谛，绝不能恋战","text":"对，快进快去是做空的真谛，绝不能恋战","html":"对，快进快去是做空的真谛，绝不能恋战"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":524776349507984,"gmtCreate":1769151343186,"gmtModify":1769168401559,"author":{"id":"4162104220111030","authorId":"4162104220111030","name":"葛蓝碧 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为什么今天下午的分是就是5分钟，30分钟，1分钟的这个开线图走势就看不出来了，这怎么回事儿？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":16,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/524776349507984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6060,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4204802400643660","authorId":"4204802400643660","name":"叁陆玖","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a61cb1fc8302cd28e8e2f9dd40fd661","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4204802400643660","idStr":"4204802400643660"},"content":"有时候会这样 重启手机或者重启软件","text":"有时候会这样 重启手机或者重启软件","html":"有时候会这样 重启手机或者重启软件"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":543495605109384,"gmtCreate":1773714851884,"gmtModify":1773714854938,"author":{"id":"4162104220111030","authorId":"4162104220111030","name":"葛蓝碧 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18:49","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"赣锋锂业：预计2025年净利润盈利11亿元-16.5亿元，同比扭亏为盈","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142270662","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月27日，$赣锋锂业(002460)$公告，预计2025年净利润为11亿元—16.5亿元，同比增长153.04%—179.56%。报告期内，公司持有的PilbaraMineralsLimited（PLS）股票价格上涨产生了公允价值变动收益，在领式期权相关的既定风险管理策略对冲后，整体公允价值变动收益约10.3亿元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月27日，赣锋锂业公告称，公司预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为11.00亿元–16.50亿元，上年同期亏损20.74亿元，同比扭亏为盈。报告期内，公司持有的PilbaraMineralsLimited（PLS）股票价格上涨产生了公允价值变动收益，在领式期权相关的既定风险管理策略对冲后，整体公允价值变动收益约10.3亿元。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>赣锋锂业：预计2025年净利润盈利11亿元-16.5亿元，同比扭亏为盈</title>\n<style 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18:49</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>1月27日，赣锋锂业公告称，公司预计2025年归属于上市公司股东的净利润为11.00亿元–16.50亿元，上年同期亏损20.74亿元，同比扭亏为盈。报告期内，公司持有的PilbaraMineralsLimited（PLS）股票价格上涨产生了公允价值变动收益，在领式期权相关的既定风险管理策略对冲后，整体公允价值变动收益约10.3亿元。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a8642475395bb363eacb86148917e7b","relate_stocks":{"BK1594":"碳中和概念股","LIT":"Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF","BK0188":"融资融券","SGXZ81163826.USD":"UNITED CHINA A-SHARES INNOVATION \"A\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ49509284.SGD":"United China A Shares Innovation A Acc SGD","BK0182":"小金属","BK0197":"中小创蓝筹","BK0201":"可转债","BK1129":"特种化学制品","002460":"赣锋锂业","SG9999003461.SGD":"United Asia Pacific Infrastructure SGD","BK0155":"锂电池","01772":"赣锋锂业","BK1509":"特斯拉概念股","BK0196":"行业龙头","SG9999006597.SGD":"United China-India Dynamic Growth 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