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江南一只虎

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江南一只虎

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江南一只虎

2024-08-04

第一段就是错的，不必再看

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22:44","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"巴菲特为何“甩卖”苹果？33倍估值太贵了！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2456225934","media":"公子豹","summary":"下行时代，保守者称王。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>巴菲特清仓大甩卖<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>了。</p><p>巴菲特的最新报告显示，二季度，他所持有的苹果公司仓位，从一季度的7.89亿股大幅减至约4亿股，降幅近50%。</p><p>这个减持规模相当的惊人，而且依照老爷子的脾气，不会卖一半留一半来降低成本，而是会卖得干干净净。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94b5c87aa905d537e929cf8716236da1\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"440\"/></p><p>比如说，最近巴菲特就一直在卖美国银行，截至8月1日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>已经连续第12天抛售美国银行，累计套现总额38亿美元。巴菲特从2011年起买入美国银行，成了伯克希尔第二大持仓股。</p><p><strong>01</strong></p><p><strong>为什么卖苹果？</strong></p><p>股民懵了：巴菲特为什么要卖苹果？</p><p>最简单的逻辑是：苹果估值太高了。目前，苹果的PE（ttm）是32.8倍，股价也位于历史最高区间。这一波AI浪潮，将苹果的股价从2023年1月的123元，推高到了目前的237元，足足翻了一倍。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25933a84f5af6d46ab1eca2a5a11f0ec\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>这一波，将苹果的估值从合理推向了高估，估值达到33倍，这不说在美股，即使在A股也算比较高的了。</p><p>估值高了之后，一个很尴尬的现实是：股息率随之急剧下降，wind显示，目前苹果的股息率仅为0.45%，你敢相信？？</p><p>巴菲特并不是不买成长股，目前他就持有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>。但苹果的业绩增长点，目前并不明显，难以跟上33倍的高估值。</p><p>如果巴菲特只是想吃股息，那么苹果的股息率又实在低的可怜，正常思维的人肯定看不上的。</p><p>再加上巴菲特可能认为美国经济可能衰退、美股可能调整，那么减持就顺理成章了。</p><p>另外，巴菲特持有的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KO\">可口可乐</a>，目前估值也到了28倍，但股息率还有2.73%。而且可口可乐作为用户忠诚度高的消费品，跟苹果逻辑还不大一样。</p><p>我看到过一个研究，巴菲特从不买估值15倍以上的股票。</p><p>苹果的估值已经超过了他容忍值的一倍，肯定打上“高估”的标签了。</p><p><strong>02</strong></p><p><strong>复盘中石油的操作</strong></p><p>对照来看巴菲特在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601857\">中国石油</a>上的操作，可以得到一些启发。</p><p>2003年，伯克希尔用4.88亿美元买入中国石油的1.3%的股权，按这个价格，中国石油总价值为370亿美元。当时，中石油的估值仅为6.3倍，行业平均估值是17倍（和埃克森、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BP\">英国石油</a>对比）。</p><p>巴菲特亲口说：我得出的结论是，中石油值1000亿，然后我看了下价格，它当时大约350亿。如果我以350亿的价格购买，我不需要进一步分析它值970亿还是1030亿。</p><p>2007年7-10月间，巴菲特连续7次卖出中石油。当时中石油大概是15.5倍市盈率和3.07倍市净率。同一时间，美孚的市盈率12.42倍。</p><p>巴菲特亲口说，到2007年，中石油的市值上升到2750亿美元，大约是我们在与其他大型石油公司比较以后，认为它应该有的价值。所以，我们把手里中石油的股票卖了40亿美元。</p><p>有趣的是，巴菲特正在买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OXY\">西方石油</a>，今年6月又买了不少，持股量超过2.55亿股，占比28.8%，是伯克希尔持有的第六大持仓。目前，西方石油的市盈率是14.6倍。</p><p>雪佛龙是伯克希尔的第五大持仓。目前，其市盈率是12.1倍。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c208bfd9f2403dff98cce181ab8bd252\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"394\"/></p><p>（ 2024年巴菲特持仓一览表 ， 有变动 ， 大致意思一下 ）</p><p>巴菲特对能源股的青睐，低估值是一方面，但还有另外的原因。</p><p>巴菲特对石油行业的未来乐观，认为石油资源将在长期内因产能受限而变得更加珍贵。芒格曾预测，石油将成为未来两个世纪的稀缺资源。</p><p>在巴菲特看来，能源领域的投资虽需较长时间才能显现回报，但稳定的长期潜力使之不受短期市场波动的影响。</p><p>总之，巴菲特是一个价值投资的大师，但并不是傻乎乎一直拿着，估值高低是他衡量的“锚”——再好的公司也要有好价格才行。</p><p>他这种杀伐果断的性格，也给中国股民上了一课——真正要赚钱，还是得看估值高低，不然真把裤衩也亏光了。</p><p>对于苹果，巴菲特估计是要清仓了。</p><p>如何面对，只能说，人只能赚自己认知范围内的钱。各安天命。</p><p>长期看，下行时代，保守者称王。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1722735114221","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>巴菲特为何“甩卖”苹果？33倍估值太贵了！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n巴菲特为何“甩卖”苹果？33倍估值太贵了！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-03 22:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.163.com/dy/article/J8MVJ9SE05394MBC.html><strong>公子豹</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>巴菲特清仓大甩卖苹果了。巴菲特的最新报告显示，二季度，他所持有的苹果公司仓位，从一季度的7.89亿股大幅减至约4亿股，降幅近50%。这个减持规模相当的惊人，而且依照老爷子的脾气，不会卖一半留一半来降低成本，而是会卖得干干净净。比如说，最近巴菲特就一直在卖美国银行，截至8月1日，伯克希尔已经连续第12天抛售美国银行，累计套现总额38亿美元。巴菲特从2011年起买入美国银行，成了伯克希尔第二大持仓股。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.163.com/dy/article/J8MVJ9SE05394MBC.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/480a5b3c9ca2100efba6198e8adeeee6","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.163.com/dy/article/J8MVJ9SE05394MBC.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2456225934","content_text":"巴菲特清仓大甩卖苹果了。巴菲特的最新报告显示，二季度，他所持有的苹果公司仓位，从一季度的7.89亿股大幅减至约4亿股，降幅近50%。这个减持规模相当的惊人，而且依照老爷子的脾气，不会卖一半留一半来降低成本，而是会卖得干干净净。比如说，最近巴菲特就一直在卖美国银行，截至8月1日，伯克希尔已经连续第12天抛售美国银行，累计套现总额38亿美元。巴菲特从2011年起买入美国银行，成了伯克希尔第二大持仓股。01为什么卖苹果？股民懵了：巴菲特为什么要卖苹果？最简单的逻辑是：苹果估值太高了。目前，苹果的PE（ttm）是32.8倍，股价也位于历史最高区间。这一波AI浪潮，将苹果的股价从2023年1月的123元，推高到了目前的237元，足足翻了一倍。这一波，将苹果的估值从合理推向了高估，估值达到33倍，这不说在美股，即使在A股也算比较高的了。估值高了之后，一个很尴尬的现实是：股息率随之急剧下降，wind显示，目前苹果的股息率仅为0.45%，你敢相信？？巴菲特并不是不买成长股，目前他就持有比亚迪。但苹果的业绩增长点，目前并不明显，难以跟上33倍的高估值。如果巴菲特只是想吃股息，那么苹果的股息率又实在低的可怜，正常思维的人肯定看不上的。再加上巴菲特可能认为美国经济可能衰退、美股可能调整，那么减持就顺理成章了。另外，巴菲特持有的可口可乐，目前估值也到了28倍，但股息率还有2.73%。而且可口可乐作为用户忠诚度高的消费品，跟苹果逻辑还不大一样。我看到过一个研究，巴菲特从不买估值15倍以上的股票。苹果的估值已经超过了他容忍值的一倍，肯定打上“高估”的标签了。02复盘中石油的操作对照来看巴菲特在中国石油上的操作，可以得到一些启发。2003年，伯克希尔用4.88亿美元买入中国石油的1.3%的股权，按这个价格，中国石油总价值为370亿美元。当时，中石油的估值仅为6.3倍，行业平均估值是17倍（和埃克森、英国石油对比）。巴菲特亲口说：我得出的结论是，中石油值1000亿，然后我看了下价格，它当时大约350亿。如果我以350亿的价格购买，我不需要进一步分析它值970亿还是1030亿。2007年7-10月间，巴菲特连续7次卖出中石油。当时中石油大概是15.5倍市盈率和3.07倍市净率。同一时间，美孚的市盈率12.42倍。巴菲特亲口说，到2007年，中石油的市值上升到2750亿美元，大约是我们在与其他大型石油公司比较以后，认为它应该有的价值。所以，我们把手里中石油的股票卖了40亿美元。有趣的是，巴菲特正在买入西方石油，今年6月又买了不少，持股量超过2.55亿股，占比28.8%，是伯克希尔持有的第六大持仓。目前，西方石油的市盈率是14.6倍。雪佛龙是伯克希尔的第五大持仓。目前，其市盈率是12.1倍。（ 2024年巴菲特持仓一览表 ， 有变动 ， 大致意思一下 ）巴菲特对能源股的青睐，低估值是一方面，但还有另外的原因。巴菲特对石油行业的未来乐观，认为石油资源将在长期内因产能受限而变得更加珍贵。芒格曾预测，石油将成为未来两个世纪的稀缺资源。在巴菲特看来，能源领域的投资虽需较长时间才能显现回报，但稳定的长期潜力使之不受短期市场波动的影响。总之，巴菲特是一个价值投资的大师，但并不是傻乎乎一直拿着，估值高低是他衡量的“锚”——再好的公司也要有好价格才行。他这种杀伐果断的性格，也给中国股民上了一课——真正要赚钱，还是得看估值高低，不然真把裤衩也亏光了。对于苹果，巴菲特估计是要清仓了。如何面对，只能说，人只能赚自己认知范围内的钱。各安天命。长期看，下行时代，保守者称王。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}