懒懒的胖道爷的个人主页 - 老虎社区

懒懒的胖道爷

懒懒的胖道爷

十年金融从业，努力做一条二级市场小🐊

IP属地：山东

18关注

1粉丝

0主题

0勋章

懒懒的胖道爷

2024-10-29

$龙蟠科技(02465)$ ** 这尼玛都能破发

懒懒的胖道爷

2024-08-05

$AAPL 20240816 205.0 PUT$ 暂时轻仓了，观察一下啥情况。。。

懒懒的胖道爷

2024-08-01

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 会，K线已经双针探底

懒懒的胖道爷

2024-11-18

低价强筹码

英伟达新款人工智能芯片存在服务器过热问题，面临延期

懒懒的胖道爷

2024-11-07

$傲基股份(02519)$ 哈哈哈哈，还好没打这个，看着就不是能撸羊毛的。

懒懒的胖道爷

2024-08-07

$ARM 20240816 111.0 PUT$ 小富即安

懒懒的胖道爷

2024-08-04

主要是都是投资人的钱，哈哈哈

巴菲特“狂砍”苹果！段永平：没有减持计划，但斌：不跟

懒懒的胖道爷

2024-11-03

好文章

40倍AI牛股神话，彻底破灭了！

懒懒的胖道爷

2024-10-09

$AAPL 20241025 220.0 PUT$

懒懒的胖道爷

2024-09-07

反正一系列消息，配合走空

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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05:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达新款人工智能芯片存在服务器过热问题，面临延期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2484063592","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"据报道，英伟达的新款Blackwell人工智能芯片已经面临延期。\n　　由于该芯片遇到了配套服务器过热的情况，致使一些客户担心他们没有足够的时间让新的数据中心投入运行。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：陈钰嘉","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">据报道，英伟达的新款Blackwell人工智能芯片已经面临延期。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">由于该芯片遇到了配套服务器过热的情况，一些客户担心他们没有足够的时间让新的数据中心投入运行。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">消息人士称，Blackwell人工智能芯片在英伟达设计的定制服务器机架中连接在一起时出现过热的情况。据一直在处理这一问题的内部员工以及知情的客户和供应商透露，英伟达已多次要求其供应商改变机架的设计以解决芯片过热问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">英伟达暂时没有回应置评请求。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">英伟达在3月份发布了Blackwell人工智能芯片，曾表示将在第二季度发货，但后来遇到了延迟，这可能会影响Meta、谷歌和微软等客户。</p></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-11-17/doc-incwktxa0720047.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据报道，英伟达的新款Blackwell人工智能芯片已经面临延期。由于该芯片遇到了配套服务器过热的情况，一些客户担心他们没有足够的时间让新的数据中心投入运行。消息人士称，Blackwell人工智能芯片在英伟达设计的定制服务器机架中连接在一起时出现过热的情况。据一直在处理这一问题的内部员工以及知情的客户和供应商透露，英伟达已多次要求其供应商改变机架的设计以解决芯片过热问题。英伟达暂时没有回应置评请求。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-11-17/doc-incwktxa0720047.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","LU1923622614.USD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A USD","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2491050071.SGD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0985320562.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL 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INC"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-11-17/doc-incwktxa0720047.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2484063592","content_text":"据报道，英伟达的新款Blackwell人工智能芯片已经面临延期。由于该芯片遇到了配套服务器过热的情况，一些客户担心他们没有足够的时间让新的数据中心投入运行。消息人士称，Blackwell人工智能芯片在英伟达设计的定制服务器机架中连接在一起时出现过热的情况。据一直在处理这一问题的内部员工以及知情的客户和供应商透露，英伟达已多次要求其供应商改变机架的设计以解决芯片过热问题。英伟达暂时没有回应置评请求。英伟达在3月份发布了Blackwell人工智能芯片，曾表示将在第二季度发货，但后来遇到了延迟，这可能会影响Meta、谷歌和微软等客户。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4112110026858630","authorId":"4112110026858630","name":"Friends 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哈哈哈哈，还好没打这个，看着就不是能撸羊毛的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368405042708760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3469255087740545","authorId":"3469255087740545","name":"弄堂秋风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b845a7734007fc58958bfcd71a752c6e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3469255087740545","idStr":"3469255087740545"},"content":"他骂的，还能跌这么多，什么鬼","text":"他骂的，还能跌这么多，什么鬼","html":"他骂的，还能跌这么多，什么鬼"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368184238100616,"gmtCreate":1730904678540,"gmtModify":1730904728344,"author":{"id":"4185274725122682","authorId":"4185274725122682","name":"懒懒的胖道爷","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0cd2bd9c119d1fb23d5ce9dfcb4048b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4185274725122682","idStr":"4185274725122682"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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小富即安","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b7d30207d288507f5ab4d63df14f319","width":"1086","height":"1713"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368184238100616","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366993056800896,"gmtCreate":1730628475455,"gmtModify":1730628477309,"author":{"id":"4185274725122682","authorId":"4185274725122682","name":"懒懒的胖道爷","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0cd2bd9c119d1fb23d5ce9dfcb4048b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4185274725122682","idStr":"4185274725122682"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好文章","listText":"好文章","text":"好文章","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366993056800896","repostId":"2480477332","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2480477332","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1730615390,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2480477332?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-03 14:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"40倍AI牛股神话，彻底破灭了！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2480477332","media":"格隆汇","summary":"腰斩再腰斩","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>腰斩再腰斩</p></blockquote><p>2021年chatGPT引爆全球AI大模型热潮以来，催生出了大量市值增长神话。</p><p>其中，超微电脑股价从大概30美元一路飙升至2024年3月最高点时1229美元，最高累计暴涨近40倍，堪称美股AI领域的超级神话。</p><p>但3月之后，超微电脑股价急转直下，在7个月之内狂泻近80%，值得注意的是，最近3个交易日，跌幅高达47%，等于再次腰斩。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6d04bacb9fe90f13adabc809645e84\" tg-width=\"1053\" tg-height=\"819\"/></p><p>短短3年多时间，先两度暴涨再两度腰斩，让人们见证了AI牛股的超级繁荣与泡沫的迅速破灭。</p><h3 id=\"id_2475005518\" style=\"text-align: left;\">01</h3><p>超微电脑史诗级崩溃，源于两方面共振：<strong>财务被疑造假以及业绩高增不确定性。</strong></p><p>今年7月，超微电脑前员工Bob Luong向联邦法院指控公司试图虚增其收入。</p><p>今年8月，美国知名做空机构兴登堡发布一份调查报告，指控超微电脑存在“明显的会计问题、未披露的关联交易、制裁和出口控制失败,以及客户问题”。</p><p>报告还明确指出超微电脑有财务造假前科。2018年，超微电脑因未能提交必要的财务报告被纳斯达克暂时摘牌。</p><p>此后，美国证监会（SEC）对超微电脑展开调查，指控公司存在“广泛会计违规行为，导致销售额、收益和利润率虚高”——重点涉及2亿美元营收虚增。后来，公司缴纳了罚款，选择与SEC和解。</p><p>兴登堡的指控，导致超微电脑当天股价一度暴跌近30%。</p><p>9月17日，纳斯达克交易所对超微电脑发出警告，公司需要在60天内提交年报或恢复合规计划（截止时间11月16日），否则面临摘牌。</p><p>9月25日，美国司法部对超微电脑启动调查，重点关注公司是否涉嫌财务造假违规等行为。当日，超微电脑股价一度暴跌近20%。</p><p>短短1个多月之后，超微电脑在2023年3月新聘任的审计机构安永宣布提出辞职。还没完成首份年报审计就辞职，引发更加巨大的震动。</p><p>天风国际分析师郭明琪分析称，<strong>从过往经验看，审计/会计辞任是很严重的事，该股迎停牌或退市的“最坏结果”的可能性越来越高。</strong></p><p>超微电脑面临市场关于财务造假的质疑以及潜在退市威胁，3天股价便腰斩了。</p><p><strong>其实，即便假设超微业绩数据完全准确（没有财务造假），在没有暴跌之前它的基本面与估值面也已经出现显著背离。</strong></p><p>2024财年三季报和年报发布后，超微电脑当日股价均暴跌20%，主要原因便是业绩不及市场预期。</p><p>首先看一个最为关键的指标——盈利能力。2024财年销售毛利率为14.13%。其中，第四季度为11.2%，大幅不及市场预期的17%，并创下历史新低。最新净利率为6.65%，创下本轮AI业务爆发以来新低。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f556c27d5700b73581ca060d103a60b8\" tg-width=\"1053\" tg-height=\"654\"/></p><p><strong>在AI如此高景气周期以及自身AI业务大幅高增背景下，毛利率却出现了连续6个季度大幅下滑，比2022财年第三季度的18.76%大幅下滑7.5%。</strong></p><p>这与当前AI服务器高繁荣的行业阶段并不吻合。这反映出公司产品竞争力不足，只有通过降价来保持与戴尔、惠普等竞争对手的竞争。</p><p>同时，公司应收账款从去年同期的12.93亿美元大增至近30亿美元，应付总额也从7.77亿增至15.45亿，都翻了1倍左右。存货方面，2024财年第二季度为25亿美元，短短6个月时间暴增至44亿美元。</p><p>应收应付和存货数据激增，一般是财务造假的重灾区。虽然近年来AI产业链大爆发确实会导致产业链公司这些数据大增，但在超微电脑这里，<strong>先被沽空机构明确发文质疑，后又有会计师在财报披露前“提桶跑路”，就难免引发市场对这些数据真实性的猜疑了。</strong></p><h3 id=\"id_534185704\" style=\"text-align: left;\">02</h3><p>如果超微电脑朝着最坏结果去演绎的话，对英伟达以及AI板块会有多大影响？</p><p>从业务来看，超微电脑是英伟达第三大客户，同时英伟达是超微电脑第一大客户，两者关系非常密切。</p><p>如果超微电脑因为财务问题导致退市等严重后果的话，经营上恐受到重大冲击，对英伟达的订单交付会有一些影响。因为当前超微电脑约占英伟达9%的营收。</p><p>抛开以上因素不谈，英伟达业绩高增持续性其实也面临不小压力。</p><p>过去一年多，英伟达业绩爆发，主要由数据中心业务拉动，最新占比已经高达80%，而此前占比较高的游戏等业务没有起色。</p><p>英伟达数据业务大幅高增，源于微软、Meta、字节等核心科技巨头疯狂采买GPU所致。但该业务具备短期极致爆发性以及典型的周期性，不像其他美国几大科技巨头的业务具备相对刚需且有持续性。</p><p>科技巨头们疯狂采购GPU来建立算力集群，属于基础设施投入，类似5G基站建设，需求是分阶段的。</p><p>在初期阶段，资本开支很大，购买相关组件来建设基站。到了中期，采购需求会明显放缓，到了后期，主要工作将是为了维护基站，采购量会进一步收缩。</p><p><strong>算力基础设施初期高景气阶段持续时间取决于下游终端科技巨头变现是否形成商业闭环。</strong></p><p>如果变现顺利，那么采购量会越来越大，初期阶段持续时间也会比较长。如果不顺利，迟迟找不到有效变现商业模式，那么采购量非但不会高速增长，且有可能在短期内断崖式下跌。</p><p>现在，这个闭环明显还没有真正完成。</p><p>过去一两个季度，美国几大核心科技巨头业绩不及预期，跟建设算力有关的大量资本开支有关，也一度引发了市场对于AI商业化变现的质疑。</p><p>今年三季度，微软资本支出200亿美元，同比增近80%，环比增5%。谷歌同期资本开支131亿美元，同比增62%，预计Q4将维持这一水平。</p><p>英伟达想要保持高增，下游科技客户需要在已有高资本开支基础上还要保持增量才行。因此，资本开支环比指标更为重要。不过，从微软、谷歌的情况来看，保持现有高资本开支为主基调，没有更多高增量，这其实对英伟达是不利的。</p><p><strong>从GPU价格维度上看，也不会那么乐观。</strong></p><p>去年至今，GPU价格快速飞涨，主要有两个方面因素。一方面，ChatGPT引爆AI，科技大厂对GPU需求突然急速放量，而供给上英伟达几乎一家独大，GPU市场占据了80%的市场份额，供应严重不足，以至于GPU产生了严重供需错配。</p><p>另一方面，价格大涨之下，市场各方对GPU投机需求明显上升（囤货），加剧了GPU供需失衡。这有点类似新能源汽车在2020年突然爆发，碳酸锂供需严重错配，导致价格从5万元飙升至60万元，等产能上来，需求又放缓，现在价格已经回到7万元水平了。</p><p>现在，GPU也面临这样的潜在风险。</p><p>首先看算力租赁市场，H100芯片最初租赁价格为4.7美元/小时，炒至高峰时一度达到每小时8美元以上。现在，1个H100NVL租赁价格每小时在2—3美元之间，价格已腰斩不止。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10a6f015c55b564af6c0834a45525ffa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"758\"/></p><p>不只是H100，另一款英伟达热门消费级芯片4090在今年3月租赁主流价格在1.3万元，如今跌至7000-8000元。</p><p>另据证券时报，去年8卡搭载H100的服务器整机售价在300万元以上，现在降低至230万-240万元，降幅超过20%，特供的H20芯片价格也从140万元降低至110万元以下。</p><p>可以预期的是，英伟达GB200从今年四季度到明年必然会放量，但营收主力大概率依旧还是H100，后者价格从今年开始便遇压力，明年降价的可能性增大。</p><p>把时间拉长一些看，GPU价格几乎必然会进入降价周期中去，因为供需严重失衡会逐步回到供需平衡。</p><p>中国市场，GPU需求已有放缓之势。一个是去年经历了“百模大战”，除百度、阿里、商汤等互联网大厂外，还包括大量其他领域跨界过来布局算力的上市公司。如今，大模型龙头份额越来越大，迫使更多中小厂商放弃对AI模型训练的投资。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48752d486d20d0c363671348a9f1b1a8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"821\"/></p><p>二个即便是互联网大厂，商业化变现不清晰，AI收益率曲线也没有想象那么陡峭，放缓对AI高增投资也有其必然性。</p><p>供给方面，国产算力起来了一部分。GPU供需两端没有那么紧张了，导致英伟达GPU售价或租赁价格下跌较为迅猛。</p><p>美国相较于中国市场可能会有延后，但也必然会进入到供需平衡阶段，GPU价格也会面临压力。</p><h3 id=\"id_701243211\" style=\"text-align: left;\">03</h3><p>超微电脑暴涨40倍后，在短短几个月内狂泻80%，甚至面临退市摘牌风险，足以见得美股市场的疯狂与残酷，也敲响了美股AI炒作的警钟。</p><p>当然，对于有业绩支撑的核心科技巨头们，美股市场很是友善，即便业绩不及预期亦或是长期基本面存在潜在较大威胁，也不会深跌，意思一下又创新高了，全球资金抱团迹象愈发明显。</p><p>比如，苹果净利润已经连续2年下滑了，未来在中国市场还面临华为持续抢夺高端份额的威胁以及没有新的业务增长曲线（造车宣布失败），但估值却给了绝对高位的36倍，逼近2021年历史最高峰，而过去10年估值中位数为19.5倍。</p><p>再看英伟达，最近几个季度业绩同比高增，确实很优秀，但给的估值也足够乐观与激进——最新PE为63倍。但面对潜在业务增长从“量价齐升”转变为“量升价跌”的风险，市场直接选择无视。</p><p>这一切背后，还是全球货币流动性泛滥的结果。在美股，以AI为首的科技巨头“永远涨”的信仰愈发坚定，但真的会一直涨下去吗？</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>40倍AI牛股神话，彻底破灭了！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n40倍AI牛股神话，彻底破灭了！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-03 14:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/1260840><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>腰斩再腰斩2021年chatGPT引爆全球AI大模型热潮以来，催生出了大量市值增长神话。其中，超微电脑股价从大概30美元一路飙升至2024年3月最高点时1229美元，最高累计暴涨近40倍，堪称美股AI领域的超级神话。但3月之后，超微电脑股价急转直下，在7个月之内狂泻近80%，值得注意的是，最近3个交易日，跌幅高达47%，等于再次腰斩。短短3年多时间，先两度暴涨再两度腰斩，让人们见证了AI牛股的超级...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/1260840\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"SMCI":"超微电脑"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/1260840","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2480477332","content_text":"腰斩再腰斩2021年chatGPT引爆全球AI大模型热潮以来，催生出了大量市值增长神话。其中，超微电脑股价从大概30美元一路飙升至2024年3月最高点时1229美元，最高累计暴涨近40倍，堪称美股AI领域的超级神话。但3月之后，超微电脑股价急转直下，在7个月之内狂泻近80%，值得注意的是，最近3个交易日，跌幅高达47%，等于再次腰斩。短短3年多时间，先两度暴涨再两度腰斩，让人们见证了AI牛股的超级繁荣与泡沫的迅速破灭。01超微电脑史诗级崩溃，源于两方面共振：财务被疑造假以及业绩高增不确定性。今年7月，超微电脑前员工Bob Luong向联邦法院指控公司试图虚增其收入。今年8月，美国知名做空机构兴登堡发布一份调查报告，指控超微电脑存在“明显的会计问题、未披露的关联交易、制裁和出口控制失败,以及客户问题”。报告还明确指出超微电脑有财务造假前科。2018年，超微电脑因未能提交必要的财务报告被纳斯达克暂时摘牌。此后，美国证监会（SEC）对超微电脑展开调查，指控公司存在“广泛会计违规行为，导致销售额、收益和利润率虚高”——重点涉及2亿美元营收虚增。后来，公司缴纳了罚款，选择与SEC和解。兴登堡的指控，导致超微电脑当天股价一度暴跌近30%。9月17日，纳斯达克交易所对超微电脑发出警告，公司需要在60天内提交年报或恢复合规计划（截止时间11月16日），否则面临摘牌。9月25日，美国司法部对超微电脑启动调查，重点关注公司是否涉嫌财务造假违规等行为。当日，超微电脑股价一度暴跌近20%。短短1个多月之后，超微电脑在2023年3月新聘任的审计机构安永宣布提出辞职。还没完成首份年报审计就辞职，引发更加巨大的震动。天风国际分析师郭明琪分析称，从过往经验看，审计/会计辞任是很严重的事，该股迎停牌或退市的“最坏结果”的可能性越来越高。超微电脑面临市场关于财务造假的质疑以及潜在退市威胁，3天股价便腰斩了。其实，即便假设超微业绩数据完全准确（没有财务造假），在没有暴跌之前它的基本面与估值面也已经出现显著背离。2024财年三季报和年报发布后，超微电脑当日股价均暴跌20%，主要原因便是业绩不及市场预期。首先看一个最为关键的指标——盈利能力。2024财年销售毛利率为14.13%。其中，第四季度为11.2%，大幅不及市场预期的17%，并创下历史新低。最新净利率为6.65%，创下本轮AI业务爆发以来新低。在AI如此高景气周期以及自身AI业务大幅高增背景下，毛利率却出现了连续6个季度大幅下滑，比2022财年第三季度的18.76%大幅下滑7.5%。这与当前AI服务器高繁荣的行业阶段并不吻合。这反映出公司产品竞争力不足，只有通过降价来保持与戴尔、惠普等竞争对手的竞争。同时，公司应收账款从去年同期的12.93亿美元大增至近30亿美元，应付总额也从7.77亿增至15.45亿，都翻了1倍左右。存货方面，2024财年第二季度为25亿美元，短短6个月时间暴增至44亿美元。应收应付和存货数据激增，一般是财务造假的重灾区。虽然近年来AI产业链大爆发确实会导致产业链公司这些数据大增，但在超微电脑这里，先被沽空机构明确发文质疑，后又有会计师在财报披露前“提桶跑路”，就难免引发市场对这些数据真实性的猜疑了。02如果超微电脑朝着最坏结果去演绎的话，对英伟达以及AI板块会有多大影响？从业务来看，超微电脑是英伟达第三大客户，同时英伟达是超微电脑第一大客户，两者关系非常密切。如果超微电脑因为财务问题导致退市等严重后果的话，经营上恐受到重大冲击，对英伟达的订单交付会有一些影响。因为当前超微电脑约占英伟达9%的营收。抛开以上因素不谈，英伟达业绩高增持续性其实也面临不小压力。过去一年多，英伟达业绩爆发，主要由数据中心业务拉动，最新占比已经高达80%，而此前占比较高的游戏等业务没有起色。英伟达数据业务大幅高增，源于微软、Meta、字节等核心科技巨头疯狂采买GPU所致。但该业务具备短期极致爆发性以及典型的周期性，不像其他美国几大科技巨头的业务具备相对刚需且有持续性。科技巨头们疯狂采购GPU来建立算力集群，属于基础设施投入，类似5G基站建设，需求是分阶段的。在初期阶段，资本开支很大，购买相关组件来建设基站。到了中期，采购需求会明显放缓，到了后期，主要工作将是为了维护基站，采购量会进一步收缩。算力基础设施初期高景气阶段持续时间取决于下游终端科技巨头变现是否形成商业闭环。如果变现顺利，那么采购量会越来越大，初期阶段持续时间也会比较长。如果不顺利，迟迟找不到有效变现商业模式，那么采购量非但不会高速增长，且有可能在短期内断崖式下跌。现在，这个闭环明显还没有真正完成。过去一两个季度，美国几大核心科技巨头业绩不及预期，跟建设算力有关的大量资本开支有关，也一度引发了市场对于AI商业化变现的质疑。今年三季度，微软资本支出200亿美元，同比增近80%，环比增5%。谷歌同期资本开支131亿美元，同比增62%，预计Q4将维持这一水平。英伟达想要保持高增，下游科技客户需要在已有高资本开支基础上还要保持增量才行。因此，资本开支环比指标更为重要。不过，从微软、谷歌的情况来看，保持现有高资本开支为主基调，没有更多高增量，这其实对英伟达是不利的。从GPU价格维度上看，也不会那么乐观。去年至今，GPU价格快速飞涨，主要有两个方面因素。一方面，ChatGPT引爆AI，科技大厂对GPU需求突然急速放量，而供给上英伟达几乎一家独大，GPU市场占据了80%的市场份额，供应严重不足，以至于GPU产生了严重供需错配。另一方面，价格大涨之下，市场各方对GPU投机需求明显上升（囤货），加剧了GPU供需失衡。这有点类似新能源汽车在2020年突然爆发，碳酸锂供需严重错配，导致价格从5万元飙升至60万元，等产能上来，需求又放缓，现在价格已经回到7万元水平了。现在，GPU也面临这样的潜在风险。首先看算力租赁市场，H100芯片最初租赁价格为4.7美元/小时，炒至高峰时一度达到每小时8美元以上。现在，1个H100NVL租赁价格每小时在2—3美元之间，价格已腰斩不止。不只是H100，另一款英伟达热门消费级芯片4090在今年3月租赁主流价格在1.3万元，如今跌至7000-8000元。另据证券时报，去年8卡搭载H100的服务器整机售价在300万元以上，现在降低至230万-240万元，降幅超过20%，特供的H20芯片价格也从140万元降低至110万元以下。可以预期的是，英伟达GB200从今年四季度到明年必然会放量，但营收主力大概率依旧还是H100，后者价格从今年开始便遇压力，明年降价的可能性增大。把时间拉长一些看，GPU价格几乎必然会进入降价周期中去，因为供需严重失衡会逐步回到供需平衡。中国市场，GPU需求已有放缓之势。一个是去年经历了“百模大战”，除百度、阿里、商汤等互联网大厂外，还包括大量其他领域跨界过来布局算力的上市公司。如今，大模型龙头份额越来越大，迫使更多中小厂商放弃对AI模型训练的投资。二个即便是互联网大厂，商业化变现不清晰，AI收益率曲线也没有想象那么陡峭，放缓对AI高增投资也有其必然性。供给方面，国产算力起来了一部分。GPU供需两端没有那么紧张了，导致英伟达GPU售价或租赁价格下跌较为迅猛。美国相较于中国市场可能会有延后，但也必然会进入到供需平衡阶段，GPU价格也会面临压力。03超微电脑暴涨40倍后，在短短几个月内狂泻80%，甚至面临退市摘牌风险，足以见得美股市场的疯狂与残酷，也敲响了美股AI炒作的警钟。当然，对于有业绩支撑的核心科技巨头们，美股市场很是友善，即便业绩不及预期亦或是长期基本面存在潜在较大威胁，也不会深跌，意思一下又创新高了，全球资金抱团迹象愈发明显。比如，苹果净利润已经连续2年下滑了，未来在中国市场还面临华为持续抢夺高端份额的威胁以及没有新的业务增长曲线（造车宣布失败），但估值却给了绝对高位的36倍，逼近2021年历史最高峰，而过去10年估值中位数为19.5倍。再看英伟达，最近几个季度业绩同比高增，确实很优秀，但给的估值也足够乐观与激进——最新PE为63倍。但面对潜在业务增长从“量价齐升”转变为“量升价跌”的风险，市场直接选择无视。这一切背后，还是全球货币流动性泛滥的结果。在美股，以AI为首的科技巨头“永远涨”的信仰愈发坚定，但真的会一直涨下去吗？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SMCI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366437592015128,"gmtCreate":1730503941005,"gmtModify":1730507297747,"author":{"id":"4185274725122682","authorId":"4185274725122682","name":"懒懒的胖道爷","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0cd2bd9c119d1fb23d5ce9dfcb4048b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4185274725122682","idStr":"4185274725122682"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"是啊，算力集群中Xeon也算是硬需求了，咋回事儿估价这个鸟样","listText":"是啊，算力集群中Xeon也算是硬需求了，咋回事儿估价这个鸟样","text":"是啊，算力集群中Xeon也算是硬需求了，咋回事儿估价这个鸟样","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366437592015128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1960,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366367757717744,"gmtCreate":1730471394718,"gmtModify":1730473280272,"author":{"id":"4185274725122682","authorId":"4185274725122682","name":"懒懒的胖道爷","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0cd2bd9c119d1fb23d5ce9dfcb4048b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4185274725122682","idStr":"4185274725122682"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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05:14","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达新款人工智能芯片存在服务器过热问题，面临延期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2484063592","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"据报道，英伟达的新款Blackwell人工智能芯片已经面临延期。\n　　由于该芯片遇到了配套服务器过热的情况，致使一些客户担心他们没有足够的时间让新的数据中心投入运行。\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP\n\n责任编辑：陈钰嘉","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: start;\">据报道，英伟达的新款Blackwell人工智能芯片已经面临延期。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">由于该芯片遇到了配套服务器过热的情况，一些客户担心他们没有足够的时间让新的数据中心投入运行。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">消息人士称，Blackwell人工智能芯片在英伟达设计的定制服务器机架中连接在一起时出现过热的情况。据一直在处理这一问题的内部员工以及知情的客户和供应商透露，英伟达已多次要求其供应商改变机架的设计以解决芯片过热问题。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">英伟达暂时没有回应置评请求。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">英伟达在3月份发布了Blackwell人工智能芯片，曾表示将在第二季度发货，但后来遇到了延迟，这可能会影响Meta、谷歌和微软等客户。</p></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-11-17/doc-incwktxa0720047.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>据报道，英伟达的新款Blackwell人工智能芯片已经面临延期。由于该芯片遇到了配套服务器过热的情况，一些客户担心他们没有足够的时间让新的数据中心投入运行。消息人士称，Blackwell人工智能芯片在英伟达设计的定制服务器机架中连接在一起时出现过热的情况。据一直在处理这一问题的内部员工以及知情的客户和供应商透露，英伟达已多次要求其供应商改变机架的设计以解决芯片过热问题。英伟达暂时没有回应置评请求。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-11-17/doc-incwktxa0720047.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f1c866c487eb9e101f73a62d4495ce9","relate_stocks":{"SG9999002232.USD":"Allianz Global High Payout USD","LU1923622614.USD":"Natixis Thematics Meta R/A USD","LU0109391861.USD":"富兰克林美国机遇基金A Acc","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU2491050071.SGD":"WELLINGTON SUSTAINABLE OUTCOMES \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0985320562.USD":"NORDEA 1 GLOBAL 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INC"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2024-11-17/doc-incwktxa0720047.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2484063592","content_text":"据报道，英伟达的新款Blackwell人工智能芯片已经面临延期。由于该芯片遇到了配套服务器过热的情况，一些客户担心他们没有足够的时间让新的数据中心投入运行。消息人士称，Blackwell人工智能芯片在英伟达设计的定制服务器机架中连接在一起时出现过热的情况。据一直在处理这一问题的内部员工以及知情的客户和供应商透露，英伟达已多次要求其供应商改变机架的设计以解决芯片过热问题。英伟达暂时没有回应置评请求。英伟达在3月份发布了Blackwell人工智能芯片，曾表示将在第二季度发货，但后来遇到了延迟，这可能会影响Meta、谷歌和微软等客户。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4112110026858630","authorId":"4112110026858630","name":"Friends time","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e896a7acea6a65722992d3130db4d5a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4112110026858630","idStr":"4112110026858630"},"content":"是的，太明显了，只能说这次的财报肯定非常亮眼","text":"是的，太明显了，只能说这次的财报肯定非常亮眼","html":"是的，太明显了，只能说这次的财报肯定非常亮眼"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":368405042708760,"gmtCreate":1730967414264,"gmtModify":1730967516457,"author":{"id":"4185274725122682","authorId":"4185274725122682","name":"懒懒的胖道爷","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0cd2bd9c119d1fb23d5ce9dfcb4048b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4185274725122682","idStr":"4185274725122682"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02519\">$傲基股份(02519)$</a> 哈哈哈哈，还好没打这个，看着就不是能撸羊毛的。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02519\">$傲基股份(02519)$</a> 哈哈哈哈，还好没打这个，看着就不是能撸羊毛的。","text":"$傲基股份(02519)$ 哈哈哈哈，还好没打这个，看着就不是能撸羊毛的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368405042708760","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3469255087740545","authorId":"3469255087740545","name":"弄堂秋风","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b845a7734007fc58958bfcd71a752c6e","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3469255087740545","idStr":"3469255087740545"},"content":"他骂的，还能跌这么多，什么鬼","text":"他骂的，还能跌这么多，什么鬼","html":"他骂的，还能跌这么多，什么鬼"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335894777446784,"gmtCreate":1723041783754,"gmtModify":1723041787537,"author":{"id":"4185274725122682","authorId":"4185274725122682","name":"懒懒的胖道爷","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0cd2bd9c119d1fb23d5ce9dfcb4048b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4185274725122682","idStr":"4185274725122682"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM 20240816 111.0 PUT\">$ARM 20240816 111.0 PUT$</a> 小富即安","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/ARM 20240816 111.0 PUT\">$ARM 20240816 111.0 PUT$</a> 小富即安","text":"$ARM 20240816 111.0 PUT$ 小富即安","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13bf741856436b2f85f77998fab971ce","width":"1086","height":"1713"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335894777446784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1887,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334800642560136,"gmtCreate":1722771504036,"gmtModify":1722771506006,"author":{"id":"4185274725122682","authorId":"4185274725122682","name":"懒懒的胖道爷","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0cd2bd9c119d1fb23d5ce9dfcb4048b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4185274725122682","idStr":"4185274725122682"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"主要是都是投资人的钱，哈哈哈","listText":"主要是都是投资人的钱，哈哈哈","text":"主要是都是投资人的钱，哈哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334800642560136","repostId":"2456099784","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2456099784","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1722757144,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2456099784?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-04 15:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"巴菲特“狂砍”苹果！段永平：没有减持计划，但斌：不跟","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2456099784","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"伯克希尔抛售了近一半的苹果公司股份。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>周六发布的季报，<strong>二季度，该公司大幅减持了所持有的苹果股份，从一季度的7.89亿股减至约4亿股，降幅近50%。</strong></p><p>对此，段永平回复网友提问“是否已经提前减持苹果”时表示：“我没有减持计划，除非被call走了。主要是目前卖了以后不知道还能买什么。而且我觉得长期来说，我能接受苹果未来能给我带来的回报。巴菲特不一样，他是职业投资者，他的选择会多一些。”</p><p>同时，东方港湾董事长但斌称：“减持一点不意外，但减持这么多感觉还是有点吃惊。”</p><p>他表示：“东方港湾的持仓中苹果约占我们组合的10%，就算看到巴老减持，我们也没有跟随减持的想法，因为人工智能时代，苹果也是最受益的公司之一，苹果16、苹果17，人工智能手机出来后，出现新的增长级与增长空间的概率还是比较大的。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e46b0f6f21e1fc8e8984c9270f614c75\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"724\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>巴菲特“狂砍”苹果！段永平：没有减持计划，但斌：不跟</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n巴菲特“狂砍”苹果！段永平：没有减持计划，但斌：不跟\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-08-04 15:39</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BRK.A\">伯克希尔</a>周六发布的季报，<strong>二季度，该公司大幅减持了所持有的苹果股份，从一季度的7.89亿股减至约4亿股，降幅近50%。</strong></p><p>对此，段永平回复网友提问“是否已经提前减持苹果”时表示：“我没有减持计划，除非被call走了。主要是目前卖了以后不知道还能买什么。而且我觉得长期来说，我能接受苹果未来能给我带来的回报。巴菲特不一样，他是职业投资者，他的选择会多一些。”</p><p>同时，东方港湾董事长但斌称：“减持一点不意外，但减持这么多感觉还是有点吃惊。”</p><p>他表示：“东方港湾的持仓中苹果约占我们组合的10%，就算看到巴老减持，我们也没有跟随减持的想法，因为人工智能时代，苹果也是最受益的公司之一，苹果16、苹果17，人工智能手机出来后，出现新的增长级与增长空间的概率还是比较大的。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e46b0f6f21e1fc8e8984c9270f614c75\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"724\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df6d98af7b91772981e292f8d81dd38d","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202408041519169f0d186d&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2456099784","content_text":"据伯克希尔周六发布的季报，二季度，该公司大幅减持了所持有的苹果股份，从一季度的7.89亿股减至约4亿股，降幅近50%。对此，段永平回复网友提问“是否已经提前减持苹果”时表示：“我没有减持计划，除非被call走了。主要是目前卖了以后不知道还能买什么。而且我觉得长期来说，我能接受苹果未来能给我带来的回报。巴菲特不一样，他是职业投资者，他的选择会多一些。”同时，东方港湾董事长但斌称：“减持一点不意外，但减持这么多感觉还是有点吃惊。”他表示：“东方港湾的持仓中苹果约占我们组合的10%，就算看到巴老减持，我们也没有跟随减持的想法，因为人工智能时代，苹果也是最受益的公司之一，苹果16、苹果17，人工智能手机出来后，出现新的增长级与增长空间的概率还是比较大的。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":366993056800896,"gmtCreate":1730628475455,"gmtModify":1730628477309,"author":{"id":"4185274725122682","authorId":"4185274725122682","name":"懒懒的胖道爷","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0cd2bd9c119d1fb23d5ce9dfcb4048b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4185274725122682","idStr":"4185274725122682"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好文章","listText":"好文章","text":"好文章","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/366993056800896","repostId":"2480477332","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2480477332","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1730615390,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2480477332?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-11-03 14:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"40倍AI牛股神话，彻底破灭了！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2480477332","media":"格隆汇","summary":"腰斩再腰斩","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>腰斩再腰斩</p></blockquote><p>2021年chatGPT引爆全球AI大模型热潮以来，催生出了大量市值增长神话。</p><p>其中，超微电脑股价从大概30美元一路飙升至2024年3月最高点时1229美元，最高累计暴涨近40倍，堪称美股AI领域的超级神话。</p><p>但3月之后，超微电脑股价急转直下，在7个月之内狂泻近80%，值得注意的是，最近3个交易日，跌幅高达47%，等于再次腰斩。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6d04bacb9fe90f13adabc809645e84\" tg-width=\"1053\" tg-height=\"819\"/></p><p>短短3年多时间，先两度暴涨再两度腰斩，让人们见证了AI牛股的超级繁荣与泡沫的迅速破灭。</p><h3 id=\"id_2475005518\" style=\"text-align: left;\">01</h3><p>超微电脑史诗级崩溃，源于两方面共振：<strong>财务被疑造假以及业绩高增不确定性。</strong></p><p>今年7月，超微电脑前员工Bob Luong向联邦法院指控公司试图虚增其收入。</p><p>今年8月，美国知名做空机构兴登堡发布一份调查报告，指控超微电脑存在“明显的会计问题、未披露的关联交易、制裁和出口控制失败,以及客户问题”。</p><p>报告还明确指出超微电脑有财务造假前科。2018年，超微电脑因未能提交必要的财务报告被纳斯达克暂时摘牌。</p><p>此后，美国证监会（SEC）对超微电脑展开调查，指控公司存在“广泛会计违规行为，导致销售额、收益和利润率虚高”——重点涉及2亿美元营收虚增。后来，公司缴纳了罚款，选择与SEC和解。</p><p>兴登堡的指控，导致超微电脑当天股价一度暴跌近30%。</p><p>9月17日，纳斯达克交易所对超微电脑发出警告，公司需要在60天内提交年报或恢复合规计划（截止时间11月16日），否则面临摘牌。</p><p>9月25日，美国司法部对超微电脑启动调查，重点关注公司是否涉嫌财务造假违规等行为。当日，超微电脑股价一度暴跌近20%。</p><p>短短1个多月之后，超微电脑在2023年3月新聘任的审计机构安永宣布提出辞职。还没完成首份年报审计就辞职，引发更加巨大的震动。</p><p>天风国际分析师郭明琪分析称，<strong>从过往经验看，审计/会计辞任是很严重的事，该股迎停牌或退市的“最坏结果”的可能性越来越高。</strong></p><p>超微电脑面临市场关于财务造假的质疑以及潜在退市威胁，3天股价便腰斩了。</p><p><strong>其实，即便假设超微业绩数据完全准确（没有财务造假），在没有暴跌之前它的基本面与估值面也已经出现显著背离。</strong></p><p>2024财年三季报和年报发布后，超微电脑当日股价均暴跌20%，主要原因便是业绩不及市场预期。</p><p>首先看一个最为关键的指标——盈利能力。2024财年销售毛利率为14.13%。其中，第四季度为11.2%，大幅不及市场预期的17%，并创下历史新低。最新净利率为6.65%，创下本轮AI业务爆发以来新低。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f556c27d5700b73581ca060d103a60b8\" tg-width=\"1053\" tg-height=\"654\"/></p><p><strong>在AI如此高景气周期以及自身AI业务大幅高增背景下，毛利率却出现了连续6个季度大幅下滑，比2022财年第三季度的18.76%大幅下滑7.5%。</strong></p><p>这与当前AI服务器高繁荣的行业阶段并不吻合。这反映出公司产品竞争力不足，只有通过降价来保持与戴尔、惠普等竞争对手的竞争。</p><p>同时，公司应收账款从去年同期的12.93亿美元大增至近30亿美元，应付总额也从7.77亿增至15.45亿，都翻了1倍左右。存货方面，2024财年第二季度为25亿美元，短短6个月时间暴增至44亿美元。</p><p>应收应付和存货数据激增，一般是财务造假的重灾区。虽然近年来AI产业链大爆发确实会导致产业链公司这些数据大增，但在超微电脑这里，<strong>先被沽空机构明确发文质疑，后又有会计师在财报披露前“提桶跑路”，就难免引发市场对这些数据真实性的猜疑了。</strong></p><h3 id=\"id_534185704\" style=\"text-align: left;\">02</h3><p>如果超微电脑朝着最坏结果去演绎的话，对英伟达以及AI板块会有多大影响？</p><p>从业务来看，超微电脑是英伟达第三大客户，同时英伟达是超微电脑第一大客户，两者关系非常密切。</p><p>如果超微电脑因为财务问题导致退市等严重后果的话，经营上恐受到重大冲击，对英伟达的订单交付会有一些影响。因为当前超微电脑约占英伟达9%的营收。</p><p>抛开以上因素不谈，英伟达业绩高增持续性其实也面临不小压力。</p><p>过去一年多，英伟达业绩爆发，主要由数据中心业务拉动，最新占比已经高达80%，而此前占比较高的游戏等业务没有起色。</p><p>英伟达数据业务大幅高增，源于微软、Meta、字节等核心科技巨头疯狂采买GPU所致。但该业务具备短期极致爆发性以及典型的周期性，不像其他美国几大科技巨头的业务具备相对刚需且有持续性。</p><p>科技巨头们疯狂采购GPU来建立算力集群，属于基础设施投入，类似5G基站建设，需求是分阶段的。</p><p>在初期阶段，资本开支很大，购买相关组件来建设基站。到了中期，采购需求会明显放缓，到了后期，主要工作将是为了维护基站，采购量会进一步收缩。</p><p><strong>算力基础设施初期高景气阶段持续时间取决于下游终端科技巨头变现是否形成商业闭环。</strong></p><p>如果变现顺利，那么采购量会越来越大，初期阶段持续时间也会比较长。如果不顺利，迟迟找不到有效变现商业模式，那么采购量非但不会高速增长，且有可能在短期内断崖式下跌。</p><p>现在，这个闭环明显还没有真正完成。</p><p>过去一两个季度，美国几大核心科技巨头业绩不及预期，跟建设算力有关的大量资本开支有关，也一度引发了市场对于AI商业化变现的质疑。</p><p>今年三季度，微软资本支出200亿美元，同比增近80%，环比增5%。谷歌同期资本开支131亿美元，同比增62%，预计Q4将维持这一水平。</p><p>英伟达想要保持高增，下游科技客户需要在已有高资本开支基础上还要保持增量才行。因此，资本开支环比指标更为重要。不过，从微软、谷歌的情况来看，保持现有高资本开支为主基调，没有更多高增量，这其实对英伟达是不利的。</p><p><strong>从GPU价格维度上看，也不会那么乐观。</strong></p><p>去年至今，GPU价格快速飞涨，主要有两个方面因素。一方面，ChatGPT引爆AI，科技大厂对GPU需求突然急速放量，而供给上英伟达几乎一家独大，GPU市场占据了80%的市场份额，供应严重不足，以至于GPU产生了严重供需错配。</p><p>另一方面，价格大涨之下，市场各方对GPU投机需求明显上升（囤货），加剧了GPU供需失衡。这有点类似新能源汽车在2020年突然爆发，碳酸锂供需严重错配，导致价格从5万元飙升至60万元，等产能上来，需求又放缓，现在价格已经回到7万元水平了。</p><p>现在，GPU也面临这样的潜在风险。</p><p>首先看算力租赁市场，H100芯片最初租赁价格为4.7美元/小时，炒至高峰时一度达到每小时8美元以上。现在，1个H100NVL租赁价格每小时在2—3美元之间，价格已腰斩不止。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10a6f015c55b564af6c0834a45525ffa\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"758\"/></p><p>不只是H100，另一款英伟达热门消费级芯片4090在今年3月租赁主流价格在1.3万元，如今跌至7000-8000元。</p><p>另据证券时报，去年8卡搭载H100的服务器整机售价在300万元以上，现在降低至230万-240万元，降幅超过20%，特供的H20芯片价格也从140万元降低至110万元以下。</p><p>可以预期的是，英伟达GB200从今年四季度到明年必然会放量，但营收主力大概率依旧还是H100，后者价格从今年开始便遇压力，明年降价的可能性增大。</p><p>把时间拉长一些看，GPU价格几乎必然会进入降价周期中去，因为供需严重失衡会逐步回到供需平衡。</p><p>中国市场，GPU需求已有放缓之势。一个是去年经历了“百模大战”，除百度、阿里、商汤等互联网大厂外，还包括大量其他领域跨界过来布局算力的上市公司。如今，大模型龙头份额越来越大，迫使更多中小厂商放弃对AI模型训练的投资。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48752d486d20d0c363671348a9f1b1a8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"821\"/></p><p>二个即便是互联网大厂，商业化变现不清晰，AI收益率曲线也没有想象那么陡峭，放缓对AI高增投资也有其必然性。</p><p>供给方面，国产算力起来了一部分。GPU供需两端没有那么紧张了，导致英伟达GPU售价或租赁价格下跌较为迅猛。</p><p>美国相较于中国市场可能会有延后，但也必然会进入到供需平衡阶段，GPU价格也会面临压力。</p><h3 id=\"id_701243211\" style=\"text-align: left;\">03</h3><p>超微电脑暴涨40倍后，在短短几个月内狂泻80%，甚至面临退市摘牌风险，足以见得美股市场的疯狂与残酷，也敲响了美股AI炒作的警钟。</p><p>当然，对于有业绩支撑的核心科技巨头们，美股市场很是友善，即便业绩不及预期亦或是长期基本面存在潜在较大威胁，也不会深跌，意思一下又创新高了，全球资金抱团迹象愈发明显。</p><p>比如，苹果净利润已经连续2年下滑了，未来在中国市场还面临华为持续抢夺高端份额的威胁以及没有新的业务增长曲线（造车宣布失败），但估值却给了绝对高位的36倍，逼近2021年历史最高峰，而过去10年估值中位数为19.5倍。</p><p>再看英伟达，最近几个季度业绩同比高增，确实很优秀，但给的估值也足够乐观与激进——最新PE为63倍。但面对潜在业务增长从“量价齐升”转变为“量升价跌”的风险，市场直接选择无视。</p><p>这一切背后，还是全球货币流动性泛滥的结果。在美股，以AI为首的科技巨头“永远涨”的信仰愈发坚定，但真的会一直涨下去吗？</p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>40倍AI牛股神话，彻底破灭了！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n40倍AI牛股神话，彻底破灭了！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-11-03 14:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.gelonghui.com/p/1260840><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>腰斩再腰斩2021年chatGPT引爆全球AI大模型热潮以来，催生出了大量市值增长神话。其中，超微电脑股价从大概30美元一路飙升至2024年3月最高点时1229美元，最高累计暴涨近40倍，堪称美股AI领域的超级神话。但3月之后，超微电脑股价急转直下，在7个月之内狂泻近80%，值得注意的是，最近3个交易日，跌幅高达47%，等于再次腰斩。短短3年多时间，先两度暴涨再两度腰斩，让人们见证了AI牛股的超级...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/1260840\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"SMCI":"超微电脑"},"source_url":"https://www.gelonghui.com/p/1260840","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2480477332","content_text":"腰斩再腰斩2021年chatGPT引爆全球AI大模型热潮以来，催生出了大量市值增长神话。其中，超微电脑股价从大概30美元一路飙升至2024年3月最高点时1229美元，最高累计暴涨近40倍，堪称美股AI领域的超级神话。但3月之后，超微电脑股价急转直下，在7个月之内狂泻近80%，值得注意的是，最近3个交易日，跌幅高达47%，等于再次腰斩。短短3年多时间，先两度暴涨再两度腰斩，让人们见证了AI牛股的超级繁荣与泡沫的迅速破灭。01超微电脑史诗级崩溃，源于两方面共振：财务被疑造假以及业绩高增不确定性。今年7月，超微电脑前员工Bob Luong向联邦法院指控公司试图虚增其收入。今年8月，美国知名做空机构兴登堡发布一份调查报告，指控超微电脑存在“明显的会计问题、未披露的关联交易、制裁和出口控制失败,以及客户问题”。报告还明确指出超微电脑有财务造假前科。2018年，超微电脑因未能提交必要的财务报告被纳斯达克暂时摘牌。此后，美国证监会（SEC）对超微电脑展开调查，指控公司存在“广泛会计违规行为，导致销售额、收益和利润率虚高”——重点涉及2亿美元营收虚增。后来，公司缴纳了罚款，选择与SEC和解。兴登堡的指控，导致超微电脑当天股价一度暴跌近30%。9月17日，纳斯达克交易所对超微电脑发出警告，公司需要在60天内提交年报或恢复合规计划（截止时间11月16日），否则面临摘牌。9月25日，美国司法部对超微电脑启动调查，重点关注公司是否涉嫌财务造假违规等行为。当日，超微电脑股价一度暴跌近20%。短短1个多月之后，超微电脑在2023年3月新聘任的审计机构安永宣布提出辞职。还没完成首份年报审计就辞职，引发更加巨大的震动。天风国际分析师郭明琪分析称，从过往经验看，审计/会计辞任是很严重的事，该股迎停牌或退市的“最坏结果”的可能性越来越高。超微电脑面临市场关于财务造假的质疑以及潜在退市威胁，3天股价便腰斩了。其实，即便假设超微业绩数据完全准确（没有财务造假），在没有暴跌之前它的基本面与估值面也已经出现显著背离。2024财年三季报和年报发布后，超微电脑当日股价均暴跌20%，主要原因便是业绩不及市场预期。首先看一个最为关键的指标——盈利能力。2024财年销售毛利率为14.13%。其中，第四季度为11.2%，大幅不及市场预期的17%，并创下历史新低。最新净利率为6.65%，创下本轮AI业务爆发以来新低。在AI如此高景气周期以及自身AI业务大幅高增背景下，毛利率却出现了连续6个季度大幅下滑，比2022财年第三季度的18.76%大幅下滑7.5%。这与当前AI服务器高繁荣的行业阶段并不吻合。这反映出公司产品竞争力不足，只有通过降价来保持与戴尔、惠普等竞争对手的竞争。同时，公司应收账款从去年同期的12.93亿美元大增至近30亿美元，应付总额也从7.77亿增至15.45亿，都翻了1倍左右。存货方面，2024财年第二季度为25亿美元，短短6个月时间暴增至44亿美元。应收应付和存货数据激增，一般是财务造假的重灾区。虽然近年来AI产业链大爆发确实会导致产业链公司这些数据大增，但在超微电脑这里，先被沽空机构明确发文质疑，后又有会计师在财报披露前“提桶跑路”，就难免引发市场对这些数据真实性的猜疑了。02如果超微电脑朝着最坏结果去演绎的话，对英伟达以及AI板块会有多大影响？从业务来看，超微电脑是英伟达第三大客户，同时英伟达是超微电脑第一大客户，两者关系非常密切。如果超微电脑因为财务问题导致退市等严重后果的话，经营上恐受到重大冲击，对英伟达的订单交付会有一些影响。因为当前超微电脑约占英伟达9%的营收。抛开以上因素不谈，英伟达业绩高增持续性其实也面临不小压力。过去一年多，英伟达业绩爆发，主要由数据中心业务拉动，最新占比已经高达80%，而此前占比较高的游戏等业务没有起色。英伟达数据业务大幅高增，源于微软、Meta、字节等核心科技巨头疯狂采买GPU所致。但该业务具备短期极致爆发性以及典型的周期性，不像其他美国几大科技巨头的业务具备相对刚需且有持续性。科技巨头们疯狂采购GPU来建立算力集群，属于基础设施投入，类似5G基站建设，需求是分阶段的。在初期阶段，资本开支很大，购买相关组件来建设基站。到了中期，采购需求会明显放缓，到了后期，主要工作将是为了维护基站，采购量会进一步收缩。算力基础设施初期高景气阶段持续时间取决于下游终端科技巨头变现是否形成商业闭环。如果变现顺利，那么采购量会越来越大，初期阶段持续时间也会比较长。如果不顺利，迟迟找不到有效变现商业模式，那么采购量非但不会高速增长，且有可能在短期内断崖式下跌。现在，这个闭环明显还没有真正完成。过去一两个季度，美国几大核心科技巨头业绩不及预期，跟建设算力有关的大量资本开支有关，也一度引发了市场对于AI商业化变现的质疑。今年三季度，微软资本支出200亿美元，同比增近80%，环比增5%。谷歌同期资本开支131亿美元，同比增62%，预计Q4将维持这一水平。英伟达想要保持高增，下游科技客户需要在已有高资本开支基础上还要保持增量才行。因此，资本开支环比指标更为重要。不过，从微软、谷歌的情况来看，保持现有高资本开支为主基调，没有更多高增量，这其实对英伟达是不利的。从GPU价格维度上看，也不会那么乐观。去年至今，GPU价格快速飞涨，主要有两个方面因素。一方面，ChatGPT引爆AI，科技大厂对GPU需求突然急速放量，而供给上英伟达几乎一家独大，GPU市场占据了80%的市场份额，供应严重不足，以至于GPU产生了严重供需错配。另一方面，价格大涨之下，市场各方对GPU投机需求明显上升（囤货），加剧了GPU供需失衡。这有点类似新能源汽车在2020年突然爆发，碳酸锂供需严重错配，导致价格从5万元飙升至60万元，等产能上来，需求又放缓，现在价格已经回到7万元水平了。现在，GPU也面临这样的潜在风险。首先看算力租赁市场，H100芯片最初租赁价格为4.7美元/小时，炒至高峰时一度达到每小时8美元以上。现在，1个H100NVL租赁价格每小时在2—3美元之间，价格已腰斩不止。不只是H100，另一款英伟达热门消费级芯片4090在今年3月租赁主流价格在1.3万元，如今跌至7000-8000元。另据证券时报，去年8卡搭载H100的服务器整机售价在300万元以上，现在降低至230万-240万元，降幅超过20%，特供的H20芯片价格也从140万元降低至110万元以下。可以预期的是，英伟达GB200从今年四季度到明年必然会放量，但营收主力大概率依旧还是H100，后者价格从今年开始便遇压力，明年降价的可能性增大。把时间拉长一些看，GPU价格几乎必然会进入降价周期中去，因为供需严重失衡会逐步回到供需平衡。中国市场，GPU需求已有放缓之势。一个是去年经历了“百模大战”，除百度、阿里、商汤等互联网大厂外，还包括大量其他领域跨界过来布局算力的上市公司。如今，大模型龙头份额越来越大，迫使更多中小厂商放弃对AI模型训练的投资。二个即便是互联网大厂，商业化变现不清晰，AI收益率曲线也没有想象那么陡峭，放缓对AI高增投资也有其必然性。供给方面，国产算力起来了一部分。GPU供需两端没有那么紧张了，导致英伟达GPU售价或租赁价格下跌较为迅猛。美国相较于中国市场可能会有延后，但也必然会进入到供需平衡阶段，GPU价格也会面临压力。03超微电脑暴涨40倍后，在短短几个月内狂泻80%，甚至面临退市摘牌风险，足以见得美股市场的疯狂与残酷，也敲响了美股AI炒作的警钟。当然，对于有业绩支撑的核心科技巨头们，美股市场很是友善，即便业绩不及预期亦或是长期基本面存在潜在较大威胁，也不会深跌，意思一下又创新高了，全球资金抱团迹象愈发明显。比如，苹果净利润已经连续2年下滑了，未来在中国市场还面临华为持续抢夺高端份额的威胁以及没有新的业务增长曲线（造车宣布失败），但估值却给了绝对高位的36倍，逼近2021年历史最高峰，而过去10年估值中位数为19.5倍。再看英伟达，最近几个季度业绩同比高增，确实很优秀，但给的估值也足够乐观与激进——最新PE为63倍。但面对潜在业务增长从“量价齐升”转变为“量升价跌”的风险，市场直接选择无视。这一切背后，还是全球货币流动性泛滥的结果。在美股，以AI为首的科技巨头“永远涨”的信仰愈发坚定，但真的会一直涨下去吗？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SMCI":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358254606192800,"gmtCreate":1728483189096,"gmtModify":1728483210960,"author":{"id":"4185274725122682","authorId":"4185274725122682","name":"懒懒的胖道爷","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e0cd2bd9c119d1fb23d5ce9dfcb4048b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4185274725122682","idStr":"4185274725122682"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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