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影枫16
2026……长线埋伏,活用订单,止损止盈
IP属地:江苏
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影枫16
02-13
熊市。。。。。。开始?
8连跌!“资本开支最高”的亚马逊跌入熊市,投资者对Mag 7“用脚投票”
影枫16
02-12
如何与AI共存?,还在摸索。。。。。。
“AI+数字广告”霸主Applovin击碎“软件股末日论”! AI红利被烙印进业绩 Q4净利润猛增84%
影枫16
01-18
背后🈶GJ吧……这GJ背书商业模式……在地球无人能比……哈哈😂
没有商业模式--DeepSeek最坚固的“护城河”
影枫16
01-17
有意思,网易新闻好像也关注过你^_^
Apple Pay支持中国大陆Visa卡,美国最大运营商崩了十个小时,千问接入阿里生态,韩国窃贼击碎机箱只偷内存条,这就是今天的其他大新闻!
影枫16
2025-11-24
小心,真正灰犀牛……
美股大跌其实是因为日本?法兴银行:日债收益率飙升是最大风险信号
影枫16
2025-11-21
泡沫的产生是因为人们决定将金融财富(被高估的资产)兑换成现金,泡沫破裂之后往往伴随着市场和经济的下滑,甚至重大的政治变革……有道理
发生了什么?美股风云突变,“割裂”非农打压降息预期,市场还存在泡沫吗?
影枫16
2025-10-25
说实话,如果上班没时间,是优选,但,如果有时间,这玩法,不是优选
影枫16
2025-10-21
不同标的,不同策略,别误导别人
@隐士谢六六:
$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$
股市赌徒们听好了:频繁高抛低吸就像走钢丝,既要精准踩中进场时机,又要完美把握离场节点。但凡失手一次,收益就会跑输那些稳坐钓鱼台的佛系持有者。重复这种骚操作,战胜长持党的概率基本归零,这可是经过数学验证的真理。祝各位投机愉快!
影枫16
2025-10-18
好用
微软将升级Edge内置PDF阅读器:响应更快、交互更流畅
影枫16
2025-10-17
认同,不经历风雨,看不到彩虹
影枫16
2025-10-11
再次脱锚,再一次,没有信誉资产支撑的空中楼阁,灾难……不杠杆,随时做好归零准备……
币圈史上最大爆仓日,10·11暴跌启示录
影枫16
2025-10-03
不错不错,这是我看好的
影枫16
2025-09-26
为了心心念的特斯拉,开启美股之旅,结果刚小赚就暴跌,亏惨了……之后,一介小白(啥股都没碰过的股市真小白),从零开始学习……现在明白,对特斯拉,可以向往和祝福,但投资要极度谨慎……内在价值和价格匹配合理,才能买[捂脸]
影枫16
2025-09-18
有趣,哈哈哈
@人生舵手__小琳:.
影枫16
2025-09-11
买苹果,因为安全,我倒觉苹果别追高科技,这波浪潮中,设计的稳定安全第一。
影枫16
2025-09-09
学习了,TKS
@等也是一种策略 如何等在哪里等:170 亿美元的$NBIS和$MSFT交易再次证明人工智能仍处于早期阶段! 关键公司: • 第一阶段: $NVDA 、 $ASML 、 $AMD 、 $TSMC 、 $NBIS 、 $ALAB • 第二阶段: $MSFT 、 $META 、 $GOOGL 、 $AMZN • 阶段 3: $PLTR 、 $NOW 、 $TEM 、 $CRWD 、 $NET • 阶段 4: $SPOT 、 $SHOP 、 $NFLX 、 $TSLA 、 $DUOL
影枫16
2025-09-08
我感觉,没有绝对的自由经济,就像没有绝对的自由一样,所以,国家级机构对股市的引导是健康且有利的。
影枫16
2025-09-03
1,求回调,好多好股没上车,2,希望降温,有个健康的市场,健康市场,才稳定才长久。[微笑]
影枫16
2025-09-03
1,求回调,好多好股没上车,2,希望降温,有个健康的市场,健康市场,才稳定才长久。[微笑]
影枫16
2025-08-23
INTJ,看了不少书,越来越保守,只赚一点点就可以了……😌
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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08:28","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"8连跌!“资本开支最高”的亚马逊跌入熊市,投资者对Mag 7“用脚投票”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2611090193","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"亚马逊较近期高点下跌21.4%,正式跌破熊市门槛,微软则是首家进入熊市的Mag7成员,该公司股价于1月29日跌入熊市,Meta股价距离熊市门槛仅差2.3%。投资者对这些公司AI支出能否带来足够投资回报信心不足,亚马逊2026年计划资本支出最高,达到2000亿美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>亚马逊较近期高点下跌21.4%,正式跌破熊市门槛,微软则是首家进入熊市的Mag7成员,该公司股价于1月29日跌入熊市,Meta股价距离熊市门槛仅差2.3%。投资者对这些公司AI支出能否带来足够投资回报信心不足,亚马逊2026年计划资本支出最高,达到2000亿美元。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>股价连续八个交易日下跌后正式进入技术性熊市,成为Mag7中第二家跌入熊市的公司。投资者对科技巨头激进的人工智能支出计划发起强烈抵制,导致这些明星股票大幅下挫。</p><p>周四,亚马逊股价收于199.60美元,较近期高点下跌21.4%,正式跌破熊市门槛。在四大超大规模云服务商中,亚马逊2026年计划资本支出最高,达到2000亿美元。亚马逊、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>和Alphabet四家公司预计2026年在AI领域的资本支出总计将达6500亿美元。</p><p>Meta可能成为下一个跌入熊市的Mag7成员,其股价距离熊市门槛仅差2.3%。尽管Meta第四季度营收和盈利超出华尔街预期,但AI支出增加和利润率压力打击了投资者信心。</p><p>微软则是首家进入熊市的Mag7成员。该公司股价于1月29日跌入熊市,此前一天公司公布的Azure云业务增长未达投资者预期。截至周四收盘,微软股价较近期高点下跌25.9%。</p><h2 id=\"id_1741685648\">投资者在Mag 7内部轮动,自由现金流压力凸显</h2><p>Apex Fintech Solutions风险副总裁Mike Treacy表示,近期抛售凸显出Mag7成员之间日益扩大的分化。自去年秋季以来,投资者已从与微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>相关的OpenAI交易中撤出,转而青睐Alphabet和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>生态系统。</p><p>Treacy指出,Alphabet垂直整合的技术堆栈在一定程度上抵消了过度支出的担忧,使该股免受科技股抛售的最严重冲击。Alphabet股价周四收盘时较近期高点下跌9.2%。Treacy表示,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>的自给自足能力应该获得相对其他公司的溢价,后者可能受到产业链中某一环节的不利影响。</p><p>亚马逊、微软和Meta股价遭受更大冲击,因为投资者对这些公司AI支出能否带来足够投资回报信心不足。对于亚马逊而言,资本支出水平的提高可能导致其今年自由现金流转为负值,这意味着公司需要开始进入债务市场筹集更多资本。</p><p>Treacy认为,<strong>AI交易的下一个重要催化剂将是英伟达2月25日发布的财报。这份业绩报告将显示AI热潮是否正在降温,</strong>或者英伟达是否成功捕捉到其最大客户投入该领域的数十亿美元资金。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>8连跌!“资本开支最高”的亚马逊跌入熊市,投资者对Mag 7“用脚投票”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n8连跌!“资本开支最高”的亚马逊跌入熊市,投资者对Mag 7“用脚投票”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-13 08:28 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765633><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>亚马逊较近期高点下跌21.4%,正式跌破熊市门槛,微软则是首家进入熊市的Mag7成员,该公司股价于1月29日跌入熊市,Meta股价距离熊市门槛仅差2.3%。投资者对这些公司AI支出能否带来足够投资回报信心不足,亚马逊2026年计划资本支出最高,达到2000亿美元。亚马逊股价连续八个交易日下跌后正式进入技术性熊市,成为Mag7中第二家跌入熊市的公司。投资者对科技巨头激进的人工智能支出计划发起强烈抵制...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765633\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76824cd4c5b97eaacdaab63d96995a28","relate_stocks":{"LU0267386448.USD":"FIDELITY FIRST ALL COUNTRY WORLD \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1261432733.SGD":"Fidelity World A-ACC-SGD","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0786609619.USD":"高盛全球千禧一代股票组合Acc","LU2092937148.SGD":"Blackrock ESG Multi-Asset A8 SGD-H","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU2092627202.USD":"Blackrock ESG Multi-Asset A8 USD-H","IE0005OL40V9.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A6M\" (USD) INC","LU2077746001.SGD":"Blackrock ESG Multi-Asset A2 SGD-H","LU1496350502.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED DYNAMIC \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0724617625.USD":"BGF GLOBAL ALLOCATION \"A4\" (USD) INC","LU0210533765.USD":"JPM GLOBAL GROWTH \"A\" (USD) 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INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3765633","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2611090193","content_text":"亚马逊较近期高点下跌21.4%,正式跌破熊市门槛,微软则是首家进入熊市的Mag7成员,该公司股价于1月29日跌入熊市,Meta股价距离熊市门槛仅差2.3%。投资者对这些公司AI支出能否带来足够投资回报信心不足,亚马逊2026年计划资本支出最高,达到2000亿美元。亚马逊股价连续八个交易日下跌后正式进入技术性熊市,成为Mag7中第二家跌入熊市的公司。投资者对科技巨头激进的人工智能支出计划发起强烈抵制,导致这些明星股票大幅下挫。周四,亚马逊股价收于199.60美元,较近期高点下跌21.4%,正式跌破熊市门槛。在四大超大规模云服务商中,亚马逊2026年计划资本支出最高,达到2000亿美元。亚马逊、微软、Meta和Alphabet四家公司预计2026年在AI领域的资本支出总计将达6500亿美元。Meta可能成为下一个跌入熊市的Mag7成员,其股价距离熊市门槛仅差2.3%。尽管Meta第四季度营收和盈利超出华尔街预期,但AI支出增加和利润率压力打击了投资者信心。微软则是首家进入熊市的Mag7成员。该公司股价于1月29日跌入熊市,此前一天公司公布的Azure云业务增长未达投资者预期。截至周四收盘,微软股价较近期高点下跌25.9%。投资者在Mag 7内部轮动,自由现金流压力凸显Apex Fintech Solutions风险副总裁Mike Treacy表示,近期抛售凸显出Mag7成员之间日益扩大的分化。自去年秋季以来,投资者已从与微软、英伟达和甲骨文相关的OpenAI交易中撤出,转而青睐Alphabet和博通生态系统。Treacy指出,Alphabet垂直整合的技术堆栈在一定程度上抵消了过度支出的担忧,使该股免受科技股抛售的最严重冲击。Alphabet股价周四收盘时较近期高点下跌9.2%。Treacy表示,谷歌的自给自足能力应该获得相对其他公司的溢价,后者可能受到产业链中某一环节的不利影响。亚马逊、微软和Meta股价遭受更大冲击,因为投资者对这些公司AI支出能否带来足够投资回报信心不足。对于亚马逊而言,资本支出水平的提高可能导致其今年自由现金流转为负值,这意味着公司需要开始进入债务市场筹集更多资本。Treacy认为,AI交易的下一个重要催化剂将是英伟达2月25日发布的财报。这份业绩报告将显示AI热潮是否正在降温,或者英伟达是否成功捕捉到其最大客户投入该领域的数十亿美元资金。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":45,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":531828651517288,"gmtCreate":1770861868679,"gmtModify":1770861870928,"author":{"id":"4192144422425150","authorId":"4192144422425150","name":"影枫16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7462462b6aabd8817da696a8c63632f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4192144422425150","idStr":"4192144422425150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"如何与AI共存?,还在摸索。。。。。。","listText":"如何与AI共存?,还在摸索。。。。。。","text":"如何与AI共存?,还在摸索。。。。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/531828651517288","repostId":"2610699864","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2610699864","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1770854051,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2610699864?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-12 07:54","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“AI+数字广告”霸主Applovin击碎“软件股末日论”! AI红利被烙印进业绩 Q4净利润猛增84%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2610699864","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉,聚焦于“AI+数字广告”的AI应用领军者Applovin在美东时间周三美股盘后公布截至2025年12月31日的2025财年第四季度以及全年业绩,该公司公布的实际业绩以及未来营收展望均轻松超出近日大幅上修后的华尔街分析师平均预期。non-GAAP准则下,该公司调整后EBITDA约为13.99亿美元,同比大幅增长82%。","content":"<html><body><article><p>智通财经APP获悉,聚焦于“AI+数字广告”的AI应用领军者Applovin(APP.US)在美东时间周三美股盘后公布截至2025年12月31日的2025财年第四季度以及全年业绩,该公司公布的实际业绩以及未来营收展望均轻松超出近日大幅上修后的华尔街分析师平均预期。随着全球资金近年来持续涌向AI算力基础设施与AI应用软件板块,Applovin股价2024年涨幅高达712%,2025年涨幅高达110%,这背后不仅得益于投资者们押注AI应用加速渗透至各行各业带来的估值提升,更加得益于Applovin强劲业绩增速。</p><p>对于全球软件股投资者而言,<strong>Applovin可谓用强劲业绩回应做空势力,并且有力证明:Anthropic刮起的代理式AI智能体风潮所引发的“软件股末日”市场论调纯属过于放大恐慌情绪,并且市场在这轮软件股超级抛售浪潮中完全错杀了那些聚焦“AI+核心操作流程”且基本面强劲的平台型软件巨头们。</strong>聚焦于代理式工作流的AI 智能体对“可自动化的白领任务”确实构成估值冲击(所以功能型SaaS软件板块会被市场系统性大砍一刀),<strong>但对“掌握数据流/内容分发/交易执行”等核心操作流程的大型平台型软件巨头,AI更像是需求加速器。</strong></p><p>因此AppLovin可谓用最新的强劲业绩以及未来展望说明运行关键企业工作负载的平台型软件巨头们不仅不可能被AI智能体或者生成式AI应用程序彻底取代,<strong>反而基本面前景可能长期受益于AI,因此其长期牛市逻辑可谓愈发强化,逢低买入是应对这些软件公司股价回调的最优策略。</strong></p><p>Applovin最新公布的Q4业绩显示,该公司总营收实现约16.58亿美元,超出华尔街分析师们近期不断上调的平均营收预期——即大约16.1亿美元,意味着实现同比大幅增长66%;GAAP准则下的<span>净利润</span>约11亿美元,同比大幅增长84%;第四季度GAAP准则下的<span>每股收益</span>为3.24美元,远远高于华尔街分析师们平均预期的约2.96美元,以及上年同期的1.73美元。 non-GAAP准则下,该公司调整后<span>EBITDA</span>约为13.99亿美元,同比大幅增长82%。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20260212081010299v206p9v2f7rd9w8\"/><p>2025财年年度业绩方面,Applovin总营收约54.81亿美元,较2024财年实现大幅增长70%,净利润约33.34亿美元,大幅增长111%,该公司调整后EBITDA约为45.12亿美元,实现大幅增长87%。</p><p>市场最为聚焦的业绩展望方面,<strong>Applovin管理层预计2026财年第一季度总营收区间约为17.45亿美元至17.75亿美元,意味着有望实现环比增长,并且显著高于华尔街分析师们平均预期的约17亿美元,调整后EBITDA预期区间则为14.65亿美元至14.95亿美元,同样高于华尔街平均预期。</strong></p><p><strong>AppLovin已非常成功地将生成式AI和深度机器学习嵌入各自的广告技术核心。AppLovin以 AXON 2.0 引擎+MAX/AppDiscovery 打造“买量到变现”闭环,因此推动营收与利润同比迈向激增曲线。</strong>AppLovin在“AI+数字广告”赛道形成数据网络效应 + 规模经济,既推升eCPM与ROI,也迅速指数级放大EBITDA。AXON 在微秒级速度下,结合数十亿条用户与上下文信号,为每一次广告展示匹配最高级别ROI的竞价方。AXON AI最初仅仅专注手游获客,现已覆盖电商、金融科技和 CTV等高增长垂直领域。</p><p><strong>软件股被大举抛售之际,“AI重塑软件盈利”的增长叙事悄然扩散</strong></p><p>在上周,席卷全球股票市场的“软件股末日”(Software-mageddon)可谓甚嚣尘上,有着“OpenAI劲敌”称号的Anthropic重磅推出的一系列AI工具/代理式AI智能体协作平台,引发全球股市SaaS订阅软件板块以及股票市场广义上的软件板块广泛抛售大浪潮。受这一严峻担忧情绪影响,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>软件与服务指数自1月下旬以来下跌约13%,并在截至上周四的一周内抹去接近1万亿美元市值。<strong>然而,市场也逐步定价这样一种软件公司AI增长叙事:即当AI大幅提升优化效率、降低边际决策成本时,平台型软件公司反而可能出现“吞吐提升 + 单位经济学更强”的正反馈,而不是被彻底替代。</strong></p><p>Anthropic的一系列新AI工具基本上基于其“Claude Cowork”代理式AI智能体所打造,旨在处理许多软件与数据提供商作为核心产品出售的极度复杂且专业化工作流程。这一系列AI工具以及其他类似的代理式AI智能体所瞄准的功能涵盖法律与技术研究、客户关系管理以及金融市场分析、财务分析等诸多复杂功能。由此愈发引发担忧:AI可能将大幅削弱传统SaaS软件厂商们的商业模式。</p><p>此前在今年1月有着“OpenAI劲敌”称号的Anthropic推出颇具工程协作革新意义的代理式AI编程工具——Claude Cowork工具,并且这款工具甚至旨在将AI代理的功能从编程终端扩展至文件管理、软件交互等广泛意义上的通用办公场景,当时就已经大幅加剧了市场对AI智能体彻底颠覆SaaS软件行业的恐惧情绪。</p><p>而自上周二起全球软件股集体崩盘的两大元凶——<strong>即Anthropic推出的新AI工具,一款能够执行多项文书工作,包括追踪合规事项和审阅法律文档的高效率代理式AI智能体,以及上周四最新推出的在AI编程、财务分析、法律文件深度分析、Office协同化办公等核心分析任务领域全面领先,且大幅超越GPT-5.2大模型的Claude Opus 4.6。</strong>要知道,审阅法律文档、金融分析能力以及独家的数据服务技术乃多数SaaS软件公司的长期最强劲护城河。上周四更新消息一出,金融分析服务提供商FactSet最惨盘中暴跌10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TRI\">汤森路透</a>、S&P Global、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MCO\">穆迪</a>、纳斯达克公司延续暴跌,美股三大指数全线跳水。</p><p>但是Applovin用强劲业绩以及未来展望证明——<strong>那些运行至关重要的企业型工作负载的平台型软件公司,将长期受益于AI技术,而非被AI彻底取代。谁掌握企业执行面(安全、IT/业务流程编排、数据管道与观测、交易与计费、合规与风控),谁就更可能成为AI代理(Agent)时代的“默认落点”;反之,越是“薄功能 + 纯座席订阅 + 可被Agent代理式AI工作流直接完成结果输出”的产品,越容易被重定价。</strong></p><p>从软件工程与AI代理(Agent)工作流的底层结构看,<strong>Agent并不会把企业软件整体“替代掉”,它更可能把价值从“人类点UI的时间”转移到“机器调用API的吞吐”。</strong>一个能在企业里稳定跑起来的agent,需要的不只是生成文字,而是可验证的身份与权限(RBAC/ABAC)、策略与审批链路、可审计日志、幂等与回滚语义、错误预算与可观测性(SLO/Tracing)、以及对业务对象与状态机的严格写入规则。<strong>Claude Cowork 的 plug-ins 机制本质上也在做同一件事:把“怎么干活、用哪些工具和数据、关键工作流怎么处理、对团队暴露哪些指令”固化成可复用的执行模板,让 agent 更深地嵌入企业工具链而不是绕开工具链。</strong></p><p>AppLovin的强劲财报与指引可谓大幅强化<strong>“平台型软件长期受益AI”的长期增长逻辑,主要因为它展示了一个非常典型的潜在增长路径:AI不仅没把平台边缘化,反而在提升平台的单位经济学与规模效率,AppLovin这类“高利润率 + 强于预期业绩指引”的组合</strong>,往往意味着 AI 正在通过更好的预测/匹配/优化,把平台的“决策成本”压到更低,从而推高吞吐和现金创造能力。</p><p><strong>基本面优质且积极拥抱AI的平台型软件巨头们迎来逢低布局良机</strong></p><p>近期不少华尔街分析师表示,基本面优质且积极拥抱AI的软件公司即将大举反弹轨迹,他们赞同黄仁勋对于软件股的积极看法——即市场错杀了那些聚焦“AI+核心操作流程”且基本面强劲的软件巨头。</p><p><strong>因此,对于像AppLovin这样“已证明能用AI彻底改写产品交付与定价、并且占据企业执行面关键节点”的平台型软件公司,回调往往提供更好的风险回报比;但对“价值主要来自UI与人工流程摩擦”的订阅软件,回调可能是价值陷阱。</strong></p><p>黄仁勋称“软件会被AI取代”是“最不合逻辑的事”,本质也是在强调——AI更可能叠加在既有的大型软件平台之上而不是把其清零重来。ChatGPT风靡全球,可谓宣告AI时代到来,<strong>这也意味着“人类原始驱动的SaaS工作台”全面开始向“AI原生的任务执行层”迁移,而迁移期里,最容易被替代的是轻量应用/简单操作流程(“vibe coding”式快速拼装会加速这类供给泛滥),这也是为何有分析师坚称像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAP\">SAP</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>这类深集成、强流程与供应链耦合的大型平台类软件系统,反而更可能成为AI代理时代的“底座与最强基石”。</strong></p><p>“很可能会出现由AI驱动的工作流程对SaaS领域的逐步蚕食,这无疑将影响该板块的估值倍数。”Futurum Group的科技股分析师罗尔夫·布尔克(Rolf Bulk)表示。不过,布尔克认为,一部分软件提供商,<strong>尤其是运行关键企业工作负载的平台型软件公司(比如微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>和ServiceNow),仍拥有持续的“盈利权”(“right to earn”)。他补充称,它们的数据深度以及在客户工作流程中的根深蒂固角色,使其更可能与AI长期共存,并且受益于AI,而非被彻底取代。</strong></p><p>曾经历2000年互联网泡沫破裂时期的华尔街最知名科技行业分析师之一、人工智能软件投资银行Sherlund Partners的创始人里克·舍伦德(Rick Sherlund)上周四重磅发声力挺那些基本面强劲的软件股。舍伦德强调,<strong>软件行业每隔10到15年就会经历一次剧烈的变革,舍伦德告诫投资者们不要过度恐慌AI对业务成熟且基本面稳健的软件公司(尤其是那些拥有复杂企业端工作操作流程的公司)的威胁</strong>。舍伦德重点指出,虽然“氛围编程”(vibe coding)可能使简单的应用程序更容易被替换,但像德国软件巨头SAP这样拥有“广泛的集成式平台和供应链”的公司拥有更大的护城河来保护其业务并且AI对于他们来说可能相当于“盈利机器”。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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AI红利被烙印进业绩 Q4净利润猛增84%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“AI+数字广告”霸主Applovin击碎“软件股末日论”! AI红利被烙印进业绩 Q4净利润猛增84%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-12 07:54 北京时间 <a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260212081011a6f0bde0&s=b><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉,聚焦于“AI+数字广告”的AI应用领军者Applovin(APP.US)在美东时间周三美股盘后公布截至2025年12月31日的2025财年第四季度以及全年业绩,该公司公布的实际业绩以及未来营收展望均轻松超出近日大幅上修后的华尔街分析师平均预期。随着全球资金近年来持续涌向AI算力基础设施与AI应用软件板块,Applovin股价2024年涨幅高达712%,2025年涨幅高达110%...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260212081011a6f0bde0&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IE00B19Z9P08.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US AGGRESSIVE GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B894F039.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Aggressive Growth A Acc SGD-H","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","BK4613":"AI应用软件","LU2360106780.USD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A4\" (USD) 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SGD-H"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20260212081011a6f0bde0&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2610699864","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉,聚焦于“AI+数字广告”的AI应用领军者Applovin(APP.US)在美东时间周三美股盘后公布截至2025年12月31日的2025财年第四季度以及全年业绩,该公司公布的实际业绩以及未来营收展望均轻松超出近日大幅上修后的华尔街分析师平均预期。随着全球资金近年来持续涌向AI算力基础设施与AI应用软件板块,Applovin股价2024年涨幅高达712%,2025年涨幅高达110%,这背后不仅得益于投资者们押注AI应用加速渗透至各行各业带来的估值提升,更加得益于Applovin强劲业绩增速。对于全球软件股投资者而言,Applovin可谓用强劲业绩回应做空势力,并且有力证明:Anthropic刮起的代理式AI智能体风潮所引发的“软件股末日”市场论调纯属过于放大恐慌情绪,并且市场在这轮软件股超级抛售浪潮中完全错杀了那些聚焦“AI+核心操作流程”且基本面强劲的平台型软件巨头们。聚焦于代理式工作流的AI 智能体对“可自动化的白领任务”确实构成估值冲击(所以功能型SaaS软件板块会被市场系统性大砍一刀),但对“掌握数据流/内容分发/交易执行”等核心操作流程的大型平台型软件巨头,AI更像是需求加速器。因此AppLovin可谓用最新的强劲业绩以及未来展望说明运行关键企业工作负载的平台型软件巨头们不仅不可能被AI智能体或者生成式AI应用程序彻底取代,反而基本面前景可能长期受益于AI,因此其长期牛市逻辑可谓愈发强化,逢低买入是应对这些软件公司股价回调的最优策略。Applovin最新公布的Q4业绩显示,该公司总营收实现约16.58亿美元,超出华尔街分析师们近期不断上调的平均营收预期——即大约16.1亿美元,意味着实现同比大幅增长66%;GAAP准则下的净利润约11亿美元,同比大幅增长84%;第四季度GAAP准则下的每股收益为3.24美元,远远高于华尔街分析师们平均预期的约2.96美元,以及上年同期的1.73美元。 non-GAAP准则下,该公司调整后EBITDA约为13.99亿美元,同比大幅增长82%。2025财年年度业绩方面,Applovin总营收约54.81亿美元,较2024财年实现大幅增长70%,净利润约33.34亿美元,大幅增长111%,该公司调整后EBITDA约为45.12亿美元,实现大幅增长87%。市场最为聚焦的业绩展望方面,Applovin管理层预计2026财年第一季度总营收区间约为17.45亿美元至17.75亿美元,意味着有望实现环比增长,并且显著高于华尔街分析师们平均预期的约17亿美元,调整后EBITDA预期区间则为14.65亿美元至14.95亿美元,同样高于华尔街平均预期。AppLovin已非常成功地将生成式AI和深度机器学习嵌入各自的广告技术核心。AppLovin以 AXON 2.0 引擎+MAX/AppDiscovery 打造“买量到变现”闭环,因此推动营收与利润同比迈向激增曲线。AppLovin在“AI+数字广告”赛道形成数据网络效应 + 规模经济,既推升eCPM与ROI,也迅速指数级放大EBITDA。AXON 在微秒级速度下,结合数十亿条用户与上下文信号,为每一次广告展示匹配最高级别ROI的竞价方。AXON AI最初仅仅专注手游获客,现已覆盖电商、金融科技和 CTV等高增长垂直领域。软件股被大举抛售之际,“AI重塑软件盈利”的增长叙事悄然扩散在上周,席卷全球股票市场的“软件股末日”(Software-mageddon)可谓甚嚣尘上,有着“OpenAI劲敌”称号的Anthropic重磅推出的一系列AI工具/代理式AI智能体协作平台,引发全球股市SaaS订阅软件板块以及股票市场广义上的软件板块广泛抛售大浪潮。受这一严峻担忧情绪影响,标普500软件与服务指数自1月下旬以来下跌约13%,并在截至上周四的一周内抹去接近1万亿美元市值。然而,市场也逐步定价这样一种软件公司AI增长叙事:即当AI大幅提升优化效率、降低边际决策成本时,平台型软件公司反而可能出现“吞吐提升 + 单位经济学更强”的正反馈,而不是被彻底替代。Anthropic的一系列新AI工具基本上基于其“Claude Cowork”代理式AI智能体所打造,旨在处理许多软件与数据提供商作为核心产品出售的极度复杂且专业化工作流程。这一系列AI工具以及其他类似的代理式AI智能体所瞄准的功能涵盖法律与技术研究、客户关系管理以及金融市场分析、财务分析等诸多复杂功能。由此愈发引发担忧:AI可能将大幅削弱传统SaaS软件厂商们的商业模式。此前在今年1月有着“OpenAI劲敌”称号的Anthropic推出颇具工程协作革新意义的代理式AI编程工具——Claude Cowork工具,并且这款工具甚至旨在将AI代理的功能从编程终端扩展至文件管理、软件交互等广泛意义上的通用办公场景,当时就已经大幅加剧了市场对AI智能体彻底颠覆SaaS软件行业的恐惧情绪。而自上周二起全球软件股集体崩盘的两大元凶——即Anthropic推出的新AI工具,一款能够执行多项文书工作,包括追踪合规事项和审阅法律文档的高效率代理式AI智能体,以及上周四最新推出的在AI编程、财务分析、法律文件深度分析、Office协同化办公等核心分析任务领域全面领先,且大幅超越GPT-5.2大模型的Claude Opus 4.6。要知道,审阅法律文档、金融分析能力以及独家的数据服务技术乃多数SaaS软件公司的长期最强劲护城河。上周四更新消息一出,金融分析服务提供商FactSet最惨盘中暴跌10%,汤森路透、S&P Global、穆迪、纳斯达克公司延续暴跌,美股三大指数全线跳水。但是Applovin用强劲业绩以及未来展望证明——那些运行至关重要的企业型工作负载的平台型软件公司,将长期受益于AI技术,而非被AI彻底取代。谁掌握企业执行面(安全、IT/业务流程编排、数据管道与观测、交易与计费、合规与风控),谁就更可能成为AI代理(Agent)时代的“默认落点”;反之,越是“薄功能 + 纯座席订阅 + 可被Agent代理式AI工作流直接完成结果输出”的产品,越容易被重定价。从软件工程与AI代理(Agent)工作流的底层结构看,Agent并不会把企业软件整体“替代掉”,它更可能把价值从“人类点UI的时间”转移到“机器调用API的吞吐”。一个能在企业里稳定跑起来的agent,需要的不只是生成文字,而是可验证的身份与权限(RBAC/ABAC)、策略与审批链路、可审计日志、幂等与回滚语义、错误预算与可观测性(SLO/Tracing)、以及对业务对象与状态机的严格写入规则。Claude Cowork 的 plug-ins 机制本质上也在做同一件事:把“怎么干活、用哪些工具和数据、关键工作流怎么处理、对团队暴露哪些指令”固化成可复用的执行模板,让 agent 更深地嵌入企业工具链而不是绕开工具链。AppLovin的强劲财报与指引可谓大幅强化“平台型软件长期受益AI”的长期增长逻辑,主要因为它展示了一个非常典型的潜在增长路径:AI不仅没把平台边缘化,反而在提升平台的单位经济学与规模效率,AppLovin这类“高利润率 + 强于预期业绩指引”的组合,往往意味着 AI 正在通过更好的预测/匹配/优化,把平台的“决策成本”压到更低,从而推高吞吐和现金创造能力。基本面优质且积极拥抱AI的平台型软件巨头们迎来逢低布局良机近期不少华尔街分析师表示,基本面优质且积极拥抱AI的软件公司即将大举反弹轨迹,他们赞同黄仁勋对于软件股的积极看法——即市场错杀了那些聚焦“AI+核心操作流程”且基本面强劲的软件巨头。因此,对于像AppLovin这样“已证明能用AI彻底改写产品交付与定价、并且占据企业执行面关键节点”的平台型软件公司,回调往往提供更好的风险回报比;但对“价值主要来自UI与人工流程摩擦”的订阅软件,回调可能是价值陷阱。黄仁勋称“软件会被AI取代”是“最不合逻辑的事”,本质也是在强调——AI更可能叠加在既有的大型软件平台之上而不是把其清零重来。ChatGPT风靡全球,可谓宣告AI时代到来,这也意味着“人类原始驱动的SaaS工作台”全面开始向“AI原生的任务执行层”迁移,而迁移期里,最容易被替代的是轻量应用/简单操作流程(“vibe coding”式快速拼装会加速这类供给泛滥),这也是为何有分析师坚称像SAP、微软这类深集成、强流程与供应链耦合的大型平台类软件系统,反而更可能成为AI代理时代的“底座与最强基石”。“很可能会出现由AI驱动的工作流程对SaaS领域的逐步蚕食,这无疑将影响该板块的估值倍数。”Futurum Group的科技股分析师罗尔夫·布尔克(Rolf Bulk)表示。不过,布尔克认为,一部分软件提供商,尤其是运行关键企业工作负载的平台型软件公司(比如微软、甲骨文和ServiceNow),仍拥有持续的“盈利权”(“right to earn”)。他补充称,它们的数据深度以及在客户工作流程中的根深蒂固角色,使其更可能与AI长期共存,并且受益于AI,而非被彻底取代。曾经历2000年互联网泡沫破裂时期的华尔街最知名科技行业分析师之一、人工智能软件投资银行Sherlund Partners的创始人里克·舍伦德(Rick Sherlund)上周四重磅发声力挺那些基本面强劲的软件股。舍伦德强调,软件行业每隔10到15年就会经历一次剧烈的变革,舍伦德告诫投资者们不要过度恐慌AI对业务成熟且基本面稳健的软件公司(尤其是那些拥有复杂企业端工作操作流程的公司)的威胁。舍伦德重点指出,虽然“氛围编程”(vibe coding)可能使简单的应用程序更容易被替换,但像德国软件巨头SAP这样拥有“广泛的集成式平台和供应链”的公司拥有更大的护城河来保护其业务并且AI对于他们来说可能相当于“盈利机器”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"APP":1.98}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":82,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":523301673574944,"gmtCreate":1768737989460,"gmtModify":1768737992067,"author":{"id":"4192144422425150","authorId":"4192144422425150","name":"影枫16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7462462b6aabd8817da696a8c63632f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4192144422425150","idStr":"4192144422425150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"背后🈶GJ吧……这GJ背书商业模式……在地球无人能比……哈哈😂","listText":"背后🈶GJ吧……这GJ背书商业模式……在地球无人能比……哈哈😂","text":"背后🈶GJ吧……这GJ背书商业模式……在地球无人能比……哈哈😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/523301673574944","repostId":"2604481920","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2604481920","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1768726706,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2604481920?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-18 16:58","market":"nz","language":"zh","title":"没有商业模式--DeepSeek最坚固的“护城河”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2604481920","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"在全球AI巨头都被资本裹挟着必须赚钱的时候,DeepSeek是唯一一个可以不计成本、不看脸色、只为AGI梦想狂奔的“自由人”。幻方量化(去年回报率53%)超级“印钞机”兜底之下,DeepSeek是唯一的“零融资”异类。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>在全球AI巨头都被资本裹挟着必须赚钱的时候,DeepSeek是唯一一个可以不计成本、不看脸色、只为AGI梦想狂奔的“自由人”。幻方量化(去年回报率53%)超级“印钞机”兜底之下,DeepSeek是唯一的“零融资”异类。</p></blockquote><p>在即将到来的1月27日——也就是“DeepSeek时刻”一周年之际,全球AI社区都期待DeepSeek再来个大招。</p><p>市场喧嚣期待之时,知名科技评论作者Kevin Xu发布长文对DeepSeek的商业模式、护城河进行了分析,在AI圈内引起了很大反响。</p><p><strong>他认为,DeepSeek最坚固的护城河,是它零外部融资、无商业化压力的独特模式。在全球AI巨头都被资本裹挟着必须赚钱的时候,DeepSeek是唯一一个可以不计成本、不看脸色、只为AGI梦想狂奔的“自由人”。</strong></p><p><strong>Kevin S. Xu(徐凯文)</strong>是专注中美科技与资本交叉领域的独立观察者,知名科技评论人。他创办的ChinaTalk播客及Newsletter在专业圈层颇具影响力,擅长从资本流向、组织行为与地缘政治多维度解构技术演进逻辑。</p><p>我们给大家梳理了一下文章要点:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>给市场预期泼盆冷水</strong>:虽然大家都在等DeepSeek的新模型,但作者直言“不要指望它能像去年那样再次震惊世界”。因为现在的市场已经被“开源模型”喂饱了,DeepSeek虽然打响了第一枪,但现在并不是唯一、也不是最开源的玩家了(比如它至今没开源数据集)。</p></li><li><p><strong>唯一的“零融资”异类</strong>:现在的AI圈就是“销金窟”,连马斯克都没扛住,最近也给xAI融了一笔高达200亿美元的巨资。但DeepSeek的老板梁文锋至今坚持“零外部融资”,这在所有顶尖实验室里是独一份的,他把控制权看得比钱重。</p></li><li><p><strong>超级“印钞机”兜底</strong>:梁文锋能这么硬气,是因为他背后的量化基金“幻方量化”太赚钱了。去年,幻方以53%的回报率赚了超7亿美元(约50亿人民币)的利润。梁文锋直接把这些钱拿来买显卡、招人,这种用“老钱”养“新梦”的模式,让他完全不需要看投资人的脸色。</p></li><li><p><strong>被VC拒绝反而是福报</strong>:2023年DeepSeek刚成立时其实找过融资,但当时国内VC普遍短视、不敢投,结果这反而成了“塞翁失马”。作者认为,一旦拿了VC的钱,就必须背上商业化KPI,动作就会变形,而现在的DeepSeek只需要对技术负责,不需要对财报负责。</p></li><li><p><strong>“钱多”麻烦多</strong>:这是一个非常深刻的洞察——钱太多会滋生“大公司病”。作者举了个很讽刺的例子:有些富得流油的实验室(比如Thinking Machines),甚至在办公室健身房里用上了<strong>印着自家Logo的定制杠铃片</strong>。这种浮夸的排场背后,是员工盯着期权带来的“纸面富贵”,部门之间为了争夺算力资源搞“宫斗”。而DeepSeek因为没有外部估值,团队极度扁平,没有资源内耗。</p></li><li><p><strong>算力不是万能药</strong>:文章引用了前OpenAI大神Ilya Sutskever的观点——<strong>真正的颠覆性创新往往不需要无限堆算力</strong>。Transformer架构当年只用了8到64张卡就跑出来了。钱太多反而会让团队变懒,以为堆算力就能解决一切,从而失去了“科研品味”。</p></li><li><p><strong>投资人的终极悖论</strong>:最后,作者站在一位投资人的角度发出了一声叹息——作为一个投资人,他做梦都想投DeepSeek;但他心里也清楚,<strong>一旦DeepSeek接受了外部投资,那种纯粹的特质就会消失了</strong>。</p></li></ul><p>作者原文如下(由AI翻译):</p><blockquote><p><strong>没有商业模式:DeepSeek的长期优势</strong></p><p>作者:Kevin S. Xu</p><p>随着1月27日“DeepSeek时刻(DeepSeek Moment)”一周年纪念日的临近,市场对于DeepSeek在农历新年(2月17日)前发布一款更强大新模型的期待正日益高涨。</p><p>然而,过高的期望几乎注定会带来失望。虽然我也急切地等待着这款新模型,想看看DeepSeek究竟在忙些什么,但我并不预期它会像一年前那样再次震惊市场。整个AI行业乃至更广泛的市场,已经习惯了每隔一两个月就有一款新的“开放权重”模型发布,尤其是来自中国实验室的模型,它们即便算不上最尖端,也往往表现扎实。凭借着开放和免费的特性,这些模型正以一种无法追踪和溯源的方式在各地获得牵引力——这也是开源技术整体上的一种美德(或者说是缺陷)。正如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>CEO黄仁勋喜欢说的那样,以Token生成量计算,世界上最大的AI仍然是OpenAI,但第二大的,是开源AI。</p><p>DeepSeek或许在去年通过发布V3和R1打响了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ME8U.SI\">MIT</a> License许可的开源模型的第一枪,但其他实验室迅速跟进,从同样来自中国的竞争对手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>及其Qwen(通义千问)模型系列,到OpenAI推出的gpt-oss模型。(两者均使用Apache 2.0许可,这是另一种常见的开源宽松许可。)正如我之前指出的,<strong>如果不是因为DeepSeek,OpenAI可能永远不会感受到压力,从而去兑现其开源根源的承诺,哪怕只是口头上的,比如发布gpt-oss。</strong>虽然DeepSeek继续开源其模型的权重以及各种工具和库,但它已不再是市场上最开放的实验室,因为它从未开放过其用于训练模型的数据集或主代码库。</p><p>根据Artificial Analysis的数据,目前全球开放程度排名前三的模型分别来自NVIDIA(Nemotron 3)、Allen Institute(Olmo 3)和穆罕默德·本·扎耶德人工智能大学(MBZUAI,K2-V2)。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9db0d303a04711cb0df0229809a8f3ab\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"472\"/></p><p>因此,DeepSeek的模型不再是开放模型中能力最强的,不再是最便宜的,甚至也不再是最开放的。那么,是否还有一个充分的理由,让我们继续给予这个曾经震惊世界的实验室超乎寻常的关注?</p><p>是的,我认为有。但不是因为它的模型或技术进步,而是因为其内部的激励机制和商业模式。更确切地说,<strong>我们应该关注DeepSeek,因为它没有商业模式</strong>——在中国、美国及其他地区的所有前沿实验室中,这是一个独特且反直觉的特性,而非缺陷。</p><h2 id=\"id_4024624920\">1. 自筹资金支撑的 AGI 梦想</h2><p>早在DeepSeek迎来其“高光时刻”并成为家喻户晓的名字之前的几周,我首次撰写关于DeepSeek的文章时(当时也在ChinaTalk播客上讨论过),就提到了这种“无商业模式优势”。值得注意的是,当整个AI世界都被资本淹没时,这种优势竟表现得如此顽固且持久。</p><p>梁文锋没有筹集任何外部资金。该实验室确实通过其API服务产生一些收入,但仍在不断降低定价。梁文锋满足于用他的量化基金——幻方量化的收益来资助DeepSeek的研发,正是幻方量化最初孵化了DeepSeek。需要明确的是,梁文锋在2023年ChatGPT推出几个月后想要创办DeepSeek时,确实曾尝试从中国投资者那里筹集风险投资。但他那“笃信AGI(AGI-pilled)”的理想主义,加上缺乏商业计划书,以及中国VC著名的短视和风险厌恶,导致了那次融资努力的失败——但这反而塞翁失马,焉知非福。</p><p>随着2025年的飞逝,为了不错过更多潜在的进步,越来越多的资金涌入,资助了更多的AI进展。每一个哪怕只有一点点牵引力的实验室都筹集了更多的钱,随之而来的是对未来商业化的更多期望。一批所谓的“AI新实验室”——由明星研究员领导的、风投支持的纯研究实验室——如雨后春笋般涌现,例如Thinking Machines Lab(Mira Murati)、SSI(Ilya Sutskever)和AMI Labs(Yann LeCun)。甚至连我过去常拿来与DeepSeek做最紧密类比的xAI——因为它们同样缺乏商业化的紧迫性——也屈服于外部资本的诱惑。几天前,埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)的实验室完成了一轮200亿美元的E轮融资,资金结构包含了股权和债权。</p><p>即便是世界上最富有的人之一,也无法对更多的钱说“不”!与此同时,梁文锋继续自筹资金维持他那神秘的店铺和他的AGI梦想。当然,梁文锋的量化基金去年业绩<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002296\">辉煌</a>,以53%的回报率创造了超过7亿美元的利润,这无疑提供了巨大帮助。据推测,这些利润的大部分都投入到了购买更多GPU(尽管面临美国的出口管制,但尽其所能)和招聘人才上,以继续推动DeepSeek的研究路线图。尽管如此,在DeepSeek获得全球知名度并在AI行业实现100%的品牌认知度之后,筹集一二十亿美元以加速其步伐本应是轻而易举的事。无论你爱它还是恨它,每个人都听说过它。</p><p>然而,对外部资金说“不”,让你能够掌控自己的命运。如果你的自定命运是“致力于让AGI成为现实……用好奇心解开AGI之谜……用长期主义回答本质问题”——这是DeepSeek在HuggingFace页面上的标语——那么用较少的资金换取完全的控制权是一个值得的权衡。当然,你也可以通过一些“公司治理创新”来达到目的。Thinking Machines Lab就是这种情况,创始人的1票投票权价值比所有其他董事会成员的票数总和还多1票,从而实际上拥有完全控制权。<strong>但无论你在董事会层面如何“创新”,一旦你接受了风险投资,为了产生风投规模的回报而进行的大规模商业化,迟早是会被期待的。</strong></p><p>DeepSeek没有任何这些预期。因此,它没有商业模式,也不需要商业模式。通往AGI的道路需要算力、人才,以及相当剂量的良好研究品味。没人规定它必须需要一个商业模式。</p><h2 id=\"id_2633551634\">2. 钱多麻烦多,没钱没烦恼</h2><p>当然,筹集更多资金最常见的理由是为了购买更多的算力来支持研究。然而,并不显见的是,要产出好的研究成果,更多的算力总是必要的。</p><p>这一洞察并非DeepSeek那独特的自筹资金架构所独有。Ilya Sutskever,这位可以说是拥有最佳研究品味的AI研究员,也表示同意。他在Dwarkesh播客中用自己的话说道:</p><blockquote><p>“算力规模已经足够大,以至于并不显见你需要那么多额外的算力来证明某个想法。我给你打个比方。AlexNet是建立在两块GPU上的。那是用于它的总算力。Transformer是建立在8到64块GPU上的。2017年没有哪篇Transformer论文的实验使用了超过64块GPU,这相当于什么,今天的两块GPU?ResNet也是如此,对吧?你可以争辩说,o1推理模型(o1 reasoning)并不是世界上最耗算力的东西。</p><p>因此,对于研究来说,你绝对需要一定量的算力,但远非显而易见的是,你需要绝对最大量的算力来进行研究。”</p></blockquote><p>另一方面,通过消除外部资金的附带条件,以及“仅仅因为有钱就必须购买更多算力”的必要性,两种组织层面的优势显现出来。而DeepSeek两者兼备。</p><p><strong>首先,即使资源更加有限,内部也不存在资源竞争。</strong> 这里没有官僚主义、内斗、权力斗争,也没有为了决定GPU是应该支持新产品发布、扩展现有流行服务的推理需求,还是分配给一个新的研究想法而进行的利益交换。在一个没有外部资金、没有商业模式的小型实验室里,良好的研究品味和新想法可以得到最大程度的支持和拥抱,即使绝对层面上的总算力是有限的。</p><p><strong>其次,基于薪酬、津贴或团队获得的算力多少而产生的嫉妒和等级秩序更少,而这些往往是有毒的,却根植于人性之中。</strong> 你的组织瞬间变得扁平,并且可以保持扁平。伴随外部资金而来的不仅是商业模式的期望,还有估值、股票期权,以及一个高估值AI实验室所有的浮华装饰,无论这种估值在早期是多么没有意义。来自梦幻估值的纸面财富往往会让位于膨胀的自我价值感、嫉妒,以及被资金更雄厚的竞争对手挖角。这些浮华装饰不仅仅关乎个人财富创造,还与实验室的品牌、声望和吸引更多人才的魅力捆绑在一起。而这些装饰可能会变得相当荒谬,比如该实验室办公室健身房里那些印有“Thinking Machines”品牌的杠铃片:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/157333b07bbb73ecd453a22984cebf35\" tg-width=\"675\" tg-height=\"900\"/></p><p>DeepSeek有自己的健身房吗?我不知道。可能有。但我很确定它没有印着品牌的杠铃片。Ilya Sutskever是否希望他能像梁文锋一样自筹资金来运营SSI(迄今已筹集30亿美元)?可能吧。他可能拥有最好的直觉和研究品味,但他无法阻止挖角者——甚至他的联合创始人CEO也被<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>财力更雄厚的扎克伯格挖走了。这并不是说DeepSeek对挖角免疫。其明星研究员之一罗福莉,现在正领导着财力更雄厚的雷军旗下<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>的AI工作。</p><p>在一个被金钱淹没的行业,以及金钱总是带来的阴谋和戏剧性中,DeepSeek因零外部资金而导致的商业模式缺失,是其唯一持久优势的源泉:<strong>为服务于AGI研究而实现的内部最大化对齐,别无其他。</strong></p><p>我甚至不确定我是否相信AGI。但作为一名投资者和资本家,我很乐意进入DeepSeek的股东名册。话虽如此,如果DeepSeek曾经让我或任何外部投资者进入,那么让DeepSeek之所以成为DeepSeek的特质,将彻底毁掉,不复存在。</p></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n没有商业模式--DeepSeek最坚固的“护城河”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-18 16:58 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3763534><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在全球AI巨头都被资本裹挟着必须赚钱的时候,DeepSeek是唯一一个可以不计成本、不看脸色、只为AGI梦想狂奔的“自由人”。幻方量化(去年回报率53%)超级“印钞机”兜底之下,DeepSeek是唯一的“零融资”异类。在即将到来的1月27日——也就是“DeepSeek时刻”一周年之际,全球AI社区都期待DeepSeek再来个大招。市场喧嚣期待之时,知名科技评论作者Kevin Xu发布长文对...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3763534\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2d10971e5f3c03dc2f148badda342d3","relate_stocks":{"BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4588":"碎股","BK4528":"SaaS概念","AI":"C3.ai, Inc.","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4543":"AI"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3763534","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2604481920","content_text":"在全球AI巨头都被资本裹挟着必须赚钱的时候,DeepSeek是唯一一个可以不计成本、不看脸色、只为AGI梦想狂奔的“自由人”。幻方量化(去年回报率53%)超级“印钞机”兜底之下,DeepSeek是唯一的“零融资”异类。在即将到来的1月27日——也就是“DeepSeek时刻”一周年之际,全球AI社区都期待DeepSeek再来个大招。市场喧嚣期待之时,知名科技评论作者Kevin Xu发布长文对DeepSeek的商业模式、护城河进行了分析,在AI圈内引起了很大反响。他认为,DeepSeek最坚固的护城河,是它零外部融资、无商业化压力的独特模式。在全球AI巨头都被资本裹挟着必须赚钱的时候,DeepSeek是唯一一个可以不计成本、不看脸色、只为AGI梦想狂奔的“自由人”。Kevin S. Xu(徐凯文)是专注中美科技与资本交叉领域的独立观察者,知名科技评论人。他创办的ChinaTalk播客及Newsletter在专业圈层颇具影响力,擅长从资本流向、组织行为与地缘政治多维度解构技术演进逻辑。我们给大家梳理了一下文章要点:给市场预期泼盆冷水:虽然大家都在等DeepSeek的新模型,但作者直言“不要指望它能像去年那样再次震惊世界”。因为现在的市场已经被“开源模型”喂饱了,DeepSeek虽然打响了第一枪,但现在并不是唯一、也不是最开源的玩家了(比如它至今没开源数据集)。唯一的“零融资”异类:现在的AI圈就是“销金窟”,连马斯克都没扛住,最近也给xAI融了一笔高达200亿美元的巨资。但DeepSeek的老板梁文锋至今坚持“零外部融资”,这在所有顶尖实验室里是独一份的,他把控制权看得比钱重。超级“印钞机”兜底:梁文锋能这么硬气,是因为他背后的量化基金“幻方量化”太赚钱了。去年,幻方以53%的回报率赚了超7亿美元(约50亿人民币)的利润。梁文锋直接把这些钱拿来买显卡、招人,这种用“老钱”养“新梦”的模式,让他完全不需要看投资人的脸色。被VC拒绝反而是福报:2023年DeepSeek刚成立时其实找过融资,但当时国内VC普遍短视、不敢投,结果这反而成了“塞翁失马”。作者认为,一旦拿了VC的钱,就必须背上商业化KPI,动作就会变形,而现在的DeepSeek只需要对技术负责,不需要对财报负责。“钱多”麻烦多:这是一个非常深刻的洞察——钱太多会滋生“大公司病”。作者举了个很讽刺的例子:有些富得流油的实验室(比如Thinking Machines),甚至在办公室健身房里用上了印着自家Logo的定制杠铃片。这种浮夸的排场背后,是员工盯着期权带来的“纸面富贵”,部门之间为了争夺算力资源搞“宫斗”。而DeepSeek因为没有外部估值,团队极度扁平,没有资源内耗。算力不是万能药:文章引用了前OpenAI大神Ilya Sutskever的观点——真正的颠覆性创新往往不需要无限堆算力。Transformer架构当年只用了8到64张卡就跑出来了。钱太多反而会让团队变懒,以为堆算力就能解决一切,从而失去了“科研品味”。投资人的终极悖论:最后,作者站在一位投资人的角度发出了一声叹息——作为一个投资人,他做梦都想投DeepSeek;但他心里也清楚,一旦DeepSeek接受了外部投资,那种纯粹的特质就会消失了。作者原文如下(由AI翻译):没有商业模式:DeepSeek的长期优势作者:Kevin S. Xu随着1月27日“DeepSeek时刻(DeepSeek Moment)”一周年纪念日的临近,市场对于DeepSeek在农历新年(2月17日)前发布一款更强大新模型的期待正日益高涨。然而,过高的期望几乎注定会带来失望。虽然我也急切地等待着这款新模型,想看看DeepSeek究竟在忙些什么,但我并不预期它会像一年前那样再次震惊市场。整个AI行业乃至更广泛的市场,已经习惯了每隔一两个月就有一款新的“开放权重”模型发布,尤其是来自中国实验室的模型,它们即便算不上最尖端,也往往表现扎实。凭借着开放和免费的特性,这些模型正以一种无法追踪和溯源的方式在各地获得牵引力——这也是开源技术整体上的一种美德(或者说是缺陷)。正如英伟达CEO黄仁勋喜欢说的那样,以Token生成量计算,世界上最大的AI仍然是OpenAI,但第二大的,是开源AI。DeepSeek或许在去年通过发布V3和R1打响了MIT License许可的开源模型的第一枪,但其他实验室迅速跟进,从同样来自中国的竞争对手阿里巴巴及其Qwen(通义千问)模型系列,到OpenAI推出的gpt-oss模型。(两者均使用Apache 2.0许可,这是另一种常见的开源宽松许可。)正如我之前指出的,如果不是因为DeepSeek,OpenAI可能永远不会感受到压力,从而去兑现其开源根源的承诺,哪怕只是口头上的,比如发布gpt-oss。虽然DeepSeek继续开源其模型的权重以及各种工具和库,但它已不再是市场上最开放的实验室,因为它从未开放过其用于训练模型的数据集或主代码库。根据Artificial Analysis的数据,目前全球开放程度排名前三的模型分别来自NVIDIA(Nemotron 3)、Allen Institute(Olmo 3)和穆罕默德·本·扎耶德人工智能大学(MBZUAI,K2-V2)。因此,DeepSeek的模型不再是开放模型中能力最强的,不再是最便宜的,甚至也不再是最开放的。那么,是否还有一个充分的理由,让我们继续给予这个曾经震惊世界的实验室超乎寻常的关注?是的,我认为有。但不是因为它的模型或技术进步,而是因为其内部的激励机制和商业模式。更确切地说,我们应该关注DeepSeek,因为它没有商业模式——在中国、美国及其他地区的所有前沿实验室中,这是一个独特且反直觉的特性,而非缺陷。1. 自筹资金支撑的 AGI 梦想早在DeepSeek迎来其“高光时刻”并成为家喻户晓的名字之前的几周,我首次撰写关于DeepSeek的文章时(当时也在ChinaTalk播客上讨论过),就提到了这种“无商业模式优势”。值得注意的是,当整个AI世界都被资本淹没时,这种优势竟表现得如此顽固且持久。梁文锋没有筹集任何外部资金。该实验室确实通过其API服务产生一些收入,但仍在不断降低定价。梁文锋满足于用他的量化基金——幻方量化的收益来资助DeepSeek的研发,正是幻方量化最初孵化了DeepSeek。需要明确的是,梁文锋在2023年ChatGPT推出几个月后想要创办DeepSeek时,确实曾尝试从中国投资者那里筹集风险投资。但他那“笃信AGI(AGI-pilled)”的理想主义,加上缺乏商业计划书,以及中国VC著名的短视和风险厌恶,导致了那次融资努力的失败——但这反而塞翁失马,焉知非福。随着2025年的飞逝,为了不错过更多潜在的进步,越来越多的资金涌入,资助了更多的AI进展。每一个哪怕只有一点点牵引力的实验室都筹集了更多的钱,随之而来的是对未来商业化的更多期望。一批所谓的“AI新实验室”——由明星研究员领导的、风投支持的纯研究实验室——如雨后春笋般涌现,例如Thinking Machines Lab(Mira Murati)、SSI(Ilya Sutskever)和AMI Labs(Yann LeCun)。甚至连我过去常拿来与DeepSeek做最紧密类比的xAI——因为它们同样缺乏商业化的紧迫性——也屈服于外部资本的诱惑。几天前,埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)的实验室完成了一轮200亿美元的E轮融资,资金结构包含了股权和债权。即便是世界上最富有的人之一,也无法对更多的钱说“不”!与此同时,梁文锋继续自筹资金维持他那神秘的店铺和他的AGI梦想。当然,梁文锋的量化基金去年业绩辉煌,以53%的回报率创造了超过7亿美元的利润,这无疑提供了巨大帮助。据推测,这些利润的大部分都投入到了购买更多GPU(尽管面临美国的出口管制,但尽其所能)和招聘人才上,以继续推动DeepSeek的研究路线图。尽管如此,在DeepSeek获得全球知名度并在AI行业实现100%的品牌认知度之后,筹集一二十亿美元以加速其步伐本应是轻而易举的事。无论你爱它还是恨它,每个人都听说过它。然而,对外部资金说“不”,让你能够掌控自己的命运。如果你的自定命运是“致力于让AGI成为现实……用好奇心解开AGI之谜……用长期主义回答本质问题”——这是DeepSeek在HuggingFace页面上的标语——那么用较少的资金换取完全的控制权是一个值得的权衡。当然,你也可以通过一些“公司治理创新”来达到目的。Thinking Machines Lab就是这种情况,创始人的1票投票权价值比所有其他董事会成员的票数总和还多1票,从而实际上拥有完全控制权。但无论你在董事会层面如何“创新”,一旦你接受了风险投资,为了产生风投规模的回报而进行的大规模商业化,迟早是会被期待的。DeepSeek没有任何这些预期。因此,它没有商业模式,也不需要商业模式。通往AGI的道路需要算力、人才,以及相当剂量的良好研究品味。没人规定它必须需要一个商业模式。2. 钱多麻烦多,没钱没烦恼当然,筹集更多资金最常见的理由是为了购买更多的算力来支持研究。然而,并不显见的是,要产出好的研究成果,更多的算力总是必要的。这一洞察并非DeepSeek那独特的自筹资金架构所独有。Ilya Sutskever,这位可以说是拥有最佳研究品味的AI研究员,也表示同意。他在Dwarkesh播客中用自己的话说道:“算力规模已经足够大,以至于并不显见你需要那么多额外的算力来证明某个想法。我给你打个比方。AlexNet是建立在两块GPU上的。那是用于它的总算力。Transformer是建立在8到64块GPU上的。2017年没有哪篇Transformer论文的实验使用了超过64块GPU,这相当于什么,今天的两块GPU?ResNet也是如此,对吧?你可以争辩说,o1推理模型(o1 reasoning)并不是世界上最耗算力的东西。因此,对于研究来说,你绝对需要一定量的算力,但远非显而易见的是,你需要绝对最大量的算力来进行研究。”另一方面,通过消除外部资金的附带条件,以及“仅仅因为有钱就必须购买更多算力”的必要性,两种组织层面的优势显现出来。而DeepSeek两者兼备。首先,即使资源更加有限,内部也不存在资源竞争。 这里没有官僚主义、内斗、权力斗争,也没有为了决定GPU是应该支持新产品发布、扩展现有流行服务的推理需求,还是分配给一个新的研究想法而进行的利益交换。在一个没有外部资金、没有商业模式的小型实验室里,良好的研究品味和新想法可以得到最大程度的支持和拥抱,即使绝对层面上的总算力是有限的。其次,基于薪酬、津贴或团队获得的算力多少而产生的嫉妒和等级秩序更少,而这些往往是有毒的,却根植于人性之中。 你的组织瞬间变得扁平,并且可以保持扁平。伴随外部资金而来的不仅是商业模式的期望,还有估值、股票期权,以及一个高估值AI实验室所有的浮华装饰,无论这种估值在早期是多么没有意义。来自梦幻估值的纸面财富往往会让位于膨胀的自我价值感、嫉妒,以及被资金更雄厚的竞争对手挖角。这些浮华装饰不仅仅关乎个人财富创造,还与实验室的品牌、声望和吸引更多人才的魅力捆绑在一起。而这些装饰可能会变得相当荒谬,比如该实验室办公室健身房里那些印有“Thinking Machines”品牌的杠铃片:DeepSeek有自己的健身房吗?我不知道。可能有。但我很确定它没有印着品牌的杠铃片。Ilya Sutskever是否希望他能像梁文锋一样自筹资金来运营SSI(迄今已筹集30亿美元)?可能吧。他可能拥有最好的直觉和研究品味,但他无法阻止挖角者——甚至他的联合创始人CEO也被Meta财力更雄厚的扎克伯格挖走了。这并不是说DeepSeek对挖角免疫。其明星研究员之一罗福莉,现在正领导着财力更雄厚的雷军旗下小米的AI工作。在一个被金钱淹没的行业,以及金钱总是带来的阴谋和戏剧性中,DeepSeek因零外部资金而导致的商业模式缺失,是其唯一持久优势的源泉:为服务于AGI研究而实现的内部最大化对齐,别无其他。我甚至不确定我是否相信AGI。但作为一名投资者和资本家,我很乐意进入DeepSeek的股东名册。话虽如此,如果DeepSeek曾经让我或任何外部投资者进入,那么让DeepSeek之所以成为DeepSeek的特质,将彻底毁掉,不复存在。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3454593056597338","authorId":"3454593056597338","name":"walking_0712","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5633b81d050de33b7eb52319df99490","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3454593056597338","idStr":"3454593056597338"},"content":"有个鸟gj,有gj还会开源?","text":"有个鸟gj,有gj还会开源?","html":"有个鸟gj,有gj还会开源?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":522616375407256,"gmtCreate":1768615363688,"gmtModify":1768615367676,"author":{"id":"4192144422425150","authorId":"4192144422425150","name":"影枫16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7462462b6aabd8817da696a8c63632f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4192144422425150","idStr":"4192144422425150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"有意思,网易新闻好像也关注过你^_^","listText":"有意思,网易新闻好像也关注过你^_^","text":"有意思,网易新闻好像也关注过你^_^","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/522616375407256","repostId":"2603076938","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2603076938","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"这些东西,大佬们肯定不想让你知道...","home_visible":1,"media_name":"差评","id":"51","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e78a24fbaddf4277b2db99987f943b42"},"pubTimestamp":1768492800,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2603076938?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-01-16 00:00","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"Apple Pay支持中国大陆Visa卡,美国最大运营商崩了十个小时,千问接入阿里生态,韩国窃贼击碎机箱只偷内存条,这就是今天的其他大新闻!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2603076938","media":"差评","summary":"据 Visa 统计,目前全球有 79% 的面对面交易均通过 NFC 功能免接触完成。上述合作伙伴已和中国银联共同为 Apple Pay 跨境支付提供支持。此次故障导致大规模通话、短信和上网服务中断,波及数十万用户。Verizon 承认服务中断对用户造成影响,并就事件致歉。Verizon 明确表示,没有发现任何网络攻击迹象,具体原因尚未公布。一名窃贼潜入办公场所,击碎电脑机箱钢化玻璃,仅盗走了四根 32GB 内存条,却未搬走整台电脑。","content":"<html><body><div><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62db696911884edc99d59a34abd6776e\"/></span></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" right=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span><strong><span leaf=\"\">今天是 1 月 14 </span></strong></span><strong arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span leaf=\"\">日</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" right=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><strong><strong arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span leaf=\"\">农历冬月廿六</span></strong></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f907eb1f15c140eda77637f12a6ccc13\"/></span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">最近正在严肃地思考</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">过年到底要不要</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">开车回家</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">。。。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">各位差友们都打算咋回去?</span></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" nodeleaf=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fe262c784e04dde9e214c8c16b1efaf\"/></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><strong><span><span leaf=\"\">下面是今天的其他大新闻</span><span leaf=\"\"></span></span></strong></span></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e65e002eeca48cdbef32bf956077e9c\"/></p><p><span leaf=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>宣布为中国大陆用户支持 Apple Pay 跨境支付:可添加 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a> 信用卡 / 借记卡</span></span></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67bead4a9ac547e9bd4bf4c895be2013\"/></p><p><span leaf=\"\">( </span><span auto=\"\" column=\"\" flex=\"\" flex-start=\"\" inline-block=\"\" justify=\"\" leaf=\"\" left=\"\" para=\"\" rgb=\"\" row=\"\" top=\"\">IT 之家</span><span leaf=\"\"> )</span><span leaf=\"\">1 月 15 日消息,苹果今日宣布拓展 Apple Pay 的跨境支付支持,让中国大陆用户无论去往何处旅行,均可使用本地发行的 Visa 信用卡与借记卡,在接受免接触式支付的店内与线上完成支付。据 Visa 统计,目前全球有 79% 的面对面交易均通过 NFC 功能免接触完成。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">持有中国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601398\">工商银行</a>、中国银行、中国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601288\">农业银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601328\">交通银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">招商银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601998\">中信银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001\">平安银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601166\">兴业银行</a>发行的 Visa 信用卡,及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00998\">中信银行</a>发行的 Visa 借记卡的顾客,将卡片添加到 Apple 钱包 App 后即可使用 Apple Pay 进行跨境支付。上述合作伙伴已和中国银联共同为 Apple Pay 跨境支付提供支持。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55af78c03e014d85a104b93e3da59907\"/></span><strong><strong><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">:以后出国终于不怕被盗刷了。。。</span></strong></strong></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e65e002eeca48cdbef32bf956077e9c\"/></p><p><strong><strong><strong arial=\"\" break-spaces=\"\" gb=\"\" initial=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span leaf=\"\">美国最大运营商崩了十个小时,波及数十万人,官方承诺补偿</span><span leaf=\"\"></span></span></strong></strong></strong></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f432f3cd924a47e39429b7fcba7f5f2a\" type=\"block\"/></p><p><span leaf=\"\">( 新浪科技</span><span leaf=\"\"> )</span><span leaf=\"\"> </span><span leaf=\"\">当地时间 1 月 14 日,美国最大运营商 Verizon 宣布,已修复一场持续 10 小时的全国性移动通信故障,并将向受影响用户提供账户抵扣。此次故障导致大规模通话、短信和上网服务中断,波及数十万用户。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">Verizon 承认服务中断对用户造成影响,并就事件致歉。当前,网络已恢复运行,若个别用户仍无法连接,建议通过重启设备重新接入网络。Verizon 同时确认,将向受到影响的账户提供补偿。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">Verizon 明确表示,没有发现任何网络攻击迹象,具体原因尚未公布。</span></p><p><strong para=\"\"><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d4fc1c13ce6444082164936cde9f6c9\"/></span><strong><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">:多少是有点水深火热了。</span></strong></strong></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e65e002eeca48cdbef32bf956077e9c\"/></p><p><strong><span leaf=\"\">千问App全面接入阿里生态业务</span></strong></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ee07289e098406d8d1a96238f175369\" type=\"block\"/></p><p><span leaf=\"\">( 新浪科技</span><span auto=\"\" column=\"\" flex=\"\" flex-start=\"\" inline-block=\"\" justify=\"\" leaf=\"\" left=\"\" para=\"\" rgb=\"\" row=\"\" top=\"\"> </span><span auto=\"\" column=\"\" flex=\"\" flex-start=\"\" inline-block=\"\" justify=\"\" leaf=\"\" left=\"\" para=\"\" rgb=\"\" row=\"\" top=\"\">)</span><span leaf=\"\">千问App宣布全面接入淘宝、支付宝、淘宝闪购、飞猪、高德等<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>生态业务,在全球首次实现点外卖、买东西、订机票等AI购物功能,并向所有用户开放测试。据悉,此次升级将上线超400项AI办事功能。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4af8f0a267994081988338eafa90af3d\"/></span><span><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">:已经有外卖红包了,可以去薅一下。</span></span></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e65e002eeca48cdbef32bf956077e9c\"/></p><p><strong><strong><strong><strong arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-spaces=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" initial=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span leaf=\"\">韩国窃贼击碎机箱只偷内存条</span></span></strong></strong></strong></strong></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d76023d4504fb1ab1a42909c587003\"/></p><p><span leaf=\"\">( IT 之家</span><span auto=\"\" column=\"\" flex=\"\" flex-start=\"\" inline-block=\"\" justify=\"\" leaf=\"\" left=\"\" para=\"\" rgb=\"\" row=\"\" top=\"\"> )</span><span leaf=\"\">网友在韩国论坛 Zod.kr 发帖,称受全球内存(RAM)极度短缺及价格飙升影响,近日发生了一起离奇盗窃案。一名窃贼潜入办公场所,击碎电脑机箱钢化玻璃,仅盗走了四根 32GB 内存条,却未搬走整台电脑。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">受害用户透露,尽管公司此前已为相关设备签署了责任赔偿合同,但由于内存市场价格在短时间内屡创新高,重置成本远超预期。保险公司经理目前表示,按现有条款覆盖当前实际采购成本存在极大困难。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0b0f1aee6ec4a3f8d0349bac0b21d5f\"/></span><span><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">:朋友们,看好你们的电脑。</span></span></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15b8e92acd3b4611abcaadba604b88e4\"/></span></p></div></body></html>","source":"weixin_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Pay支持中国大陆Visa卡,美国最大运营商崩了十个小时,千问接入阿里生态,韩国窃贼击碎机箱只偷内存条,这就是今天的其他大新闻!</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Pay支持中国大陆Visa卡,美国最大运营商崩了十个小时,千问接入阿里生态,韩国窃贼击碎机箱只偷内存条,这就是今天的其他大新闻!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/51\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e78a24fbaddf4277b2db99987f943b42);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">差评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-01-16 00:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><div><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62db696911884edc99d59a34abd6776e\"/></span></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" right=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span><strong><span leaf=\"\">今天是 1 月 14 </span></strong></span><strong arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span leaf=\"\">日</span></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" right=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><strong><strong arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span leaf=\"\">农历冬月廿六</span></strong></strong></span></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f907eb1f15c140eda77637f12a6ccc13\"/></span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">最近正在严肃地思考</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">过年到底要不要</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">开车回家</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">。。。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">各位差友们都打算咋回去?</span></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" nodeleaf=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fe262c784e04dde9e214c8c16b1efaf\"/></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" center=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" ui=\"\" visible=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><strong><span><span leaf=\"\">下面是今天的其他大新闻</span><span leaf=\"\"></span></span></strong></span></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e65e002eeca48cdbef32bf956077e9c\"/></p><p><span leaf=\"\"><span textstyle=\"\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>宣布为中国大陆用户支持 Apple Pay 跨境支付:可添加 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V\">Visa</a> 信用卡 / 借记卡</span></span></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67bead4a9ac547e9bd4bf4c895be2013\"/></p><p><span leaf=\"\">( </span><span auto=\"\" column=\"\" flex=\"\" flex-start=\"\" inline-block=\"\" justify=\"\" leaf=\"\" left=\"\" para=\"\" rgb=\"\" row=\"\" top=\"\">IT 之家</span><span leaf=\"\"> )</span><span leaf=\"\">1 月 15 日消息,苹果今日宣布拓展 Apple Pay 的跨境支付支持,让中国大陆用户无论去往何处旅行,均可使用本地发行的 Visa 信用卡与借记卡,在接受免接触式支付的店内与线上完成支付。据 Visa 统计,目前全球有 79% 的面对面交易均通过 NFC 功能免接触完成。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">持有中国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601398\">工商银行</a>、中国银行、中国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601288\">农业银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601328\">交通银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600036\">招商银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601998\">中信银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001\">平安银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601166\">兴业银行</a>发行的 Visa 信用卡,及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00998\">中信银行</a>发行的 Visa 借记卡的顾客,将卡片添加到 Apple 钱包 App 后即可使用 Apple Pay 进行跨境支付。上述合作伙伴已和中国银联共同为 Apple Pay 跨境支付提供支持。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55af78c03e014d85a104b93e3da59907\"/></span><strong><strong><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">:以后出国终于不怕被盗刷了。。。</span></strong></strong></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e65e002eeca48cdbef32bf956077e9c\"/></p><p><strong><strong><strong arial=\"\" break-spaces=\"\" gb=\"\" initial=\"\" justify=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span leaf=\"\">美国最大运营商崩了十个小时,波及数十万人,官方承诺补偿</span><span leaf=\"\"></span></span></strong></strong></strong></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f432f3cd924a47e39429b7fcba7f5f2a\" type=\"block\"/></p><p><span leaf=\"\">( 新浪科技</span><span leaf=\"\"> )</span><span leaf=\"\"> </span><span leaf=\"\">当地时间 1 月 14 日,美国最大运营商 Verizon 宣布,已修复一场持续 10 小时的全国性移动通信故障,并将向受影响用户提供账户抵扣。此次故障导致大规模通话、短信和上网服务中断,波及数十万用户。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">Verizon 承认服务中断对用户造成影响,并就事件致歉。当前,网络已恢复运行,若个别用户仍无法连接,建议通过重启设备重新接入网络。Verizon 同时确认,将向受到影响的账户提供补偿。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">Verizon 明确表示,没有发现任何网络攻击迹象,具体原因尚未公布。</span></p><p><strong para=\"\"><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d4fc1c13ce6444082164936cde9f6c9\"/></span><strong><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">:多少是有点水深火热了。</span></strong></strong></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e65e002eeca48cdbef32bf956077e9c\"/></p><p><strong><span leaf=\"\">千问App全面接入阿里生态业务</span></strong></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ee07289e098406d8d1a96238f175369\" type=\"block\"/></p><p><span leaf=\"\">( 新浪科技</span><span auto=\"\" column=\"\" flex=\"\" flex-start=\"\" inline-block=\"\" justify=\"\" leaf=\"\" left=\"\" para=\"\" rgb=\"\" row=\"\" top=\"\"> </span><span auto=\"\" column=\"\" flex=\"\" flex-start=\"\" inline-block=\"\" justify=\"\" leaf=\"\" left=\"\" para=\"\" rgb=\"\" row=\"\" top=\"\">)</span><span leaf=\"\">千问App宣布全面接入淘宝、支付宝、淘宝闪购、飞猪、高德等<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里</a>生态业务,在全球首次实现点外卖、买东西、订机票等AI购物功能,并向所有用户开放测试。据悉,此次升级将上线超400项AI办事功能。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4af8f0a267994081988338eafa90af3d\"/></span><span><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">:已经有外卖红包了,可以去薅一下。</span></span></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e65e002eeca48cdbef32bf956077e9c\"/></p><p><strong><strong><strong><strong arial=\"\" border-box=\"\" break-spaces=\"\" break-word=\"\" gb=\"\" initial=\"\" neue=\"\" none=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span><span leaf=\"\">韩国窃贼击碎机箱只偷内存条</span></span></strong></strong></strong></strong></p><p nodeleaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0d76023d4504fb1ab1a42909c587003\"/></p><p><span leaf=\"\">( IT 之家</span><span auto=\"\" column=\"\" flex=\"\" flex-start=\"\" inline-block=\"\" justify=\"\" leaf=\"\" left=\"\" para=\"\" rgb=\"\" row=\"\" top=\"\"> )</span><span leaf=\"\">网友在韩国论坛 Zod.kr 发帖,称受全球内存(RAM)极度短缺及价格飙升影响,近日发生了一起离奇盗窃案。一名窃贼潜入办公场所,击碎电脑机箱钢化玻璃,仅盗走了四根 32GB 内存条,却未搬走整台电脑。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\">受害用户透露,尽管公司此前已为相关设备签署了责任赔偿合同,但由于内存市场价格在短时间内屡创新高,重置成本远超预期。保险公司经理目前表示,按现有条款覆盖当前实际采购成本存在极大困难。</span></p><p><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0b0f1aee6ec4a3f8d0349bac0b21d5f\"/></span><span><span arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" bold=\"\" gb=\"\" leaf=\"\" neue=\"\" pingfang=\"\" rgb=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\">:朋友们,看好你们的电脑。</span></span></p><p arial=\"\" blinkmacsystemfont=\"\" gb=\"\" neue=\"\" normal=\"\" pingfang=\"\" sans=\"\" sans-serif=\"\" sc=\"\" system-ui=\"\" ui=\"\" yahei=\"\"><span leaf=\"\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15b8e92acd3b4611abcaadba604b88e4\"/></span></p></div></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1934455194.USD":"AB SICAV I LOW VOLATILITY TOTAL RETURN EQUITY PORT \"A\" (USD) 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(HKD) INC","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU1236620750.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE LONG TERM DIVIDEND \"AM2\" (USD) INC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","LU0225283273.USD":"SCHRODER ISF GLOBAL EQUITY ALPHA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4504":"桥水持仓","LU1236620834.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE LONG TERM DIVIDEND \"AM2\" (HKD) INC","LU1043141123.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (HKD) INC 2","LU1064131342.USD":"Fullerton Lux Funds - Global Absolute Alpha A Acc USD","LU0501845795.SGD":"瑞银大中华区股票基金P Acc SGD","LU0067412154.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - CHINA OPPORTUNITY \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","LU1988902786.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS GLOBAL ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU2111349929.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL 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日,美国最大运营商 Verizon 宣布,已修复一场持续 10 小时的全国性移动通信故障,并将向受影响用户提供账户抵扣。此次故障导致大规模通话、短信和上网服务中断,波及数十万用户。Verizon 承认服务中断对用户造成影响,并就事件致歉。当前,网络已恢复运行,若个别用户仍无法连接,建议通过重启设备重新接入网络。Verizon 同时确认,将向受到影响的账户提供补偿。Verizon 明确表示,没有发现任何网络攻击迹象,具体原因尚未公布。:多少是有点水深火热了。千问App全面接入阿里生态业务( 新浪科技 )千问App宣布全面接入淘宝、支付宝、淘宝闪购、飞猪、高德等阿里生态业务,在全球首次实现点外卖、买东西、订机票等AI购物功能,并向所有用户开放测试。据悉,此次升级将上线超400项AI办事功能。:已经有外卖红包了,可以去薅一下。韩国窃贼击碎机箱只偷内存条( IT 之家 )网友在韩国论坛 Zod.kr 发帖,称受全球内存(RAM)极度短缺及价格飙升影响,近日发生了一起离奇盗窃案。一名窃贼潜入办公场所,击碎电脑机箱钢化玻璃,仅盗走了四根 32GB 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15:21","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"美股大跌其实是因为日本?法兴银行:日债收益率飙升是最大风险信号","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2585197302","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉,自称“超级看跌者”的法兴银行策略师Albert Edwards表示,担心美股牛市能否持续的投资者应关注日本债券收益率。Edwards早在 5 月份就表示,日本债券收益率飙升是自 2008 年危机以来债券收益率被压低的制度开始以来,全球市场面临的最大风险。Edwards警告称,由于美国国债和股票都得益于日本持续的资金流入,美国市场易受冲击。他表示,如果日本国债收益率上升促使国内投资者回流,那么资金的撤离可能会重创美国资产,并给美元带来压力。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉,自称“超级看跌者”的法兴银行策略师Albert Edwards表示,担心美股牛市能否持续的投资者应关注日本债券收益率。Edwards早在 5 月份就表示,日本债券收益率飙升是自 2008 年危机以来债券收益率被压低的制度开始以来,全球市场面临的最大风险。</p><p>Edwards发文称,尽管投资者关注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>(NVDA.US)的业绩以及延迟公布的美国经济数据,但“当前市场最重要的单一发展是日本国债收益率飙升……日本10 年期国债收益率已突破1.82%。这就是终结股市多头行情的因素吗?”</p><p>Edwards认为,日本历来是重大金融转折的早期预警点,并补充说,日本机构可能会将资金调回国内,从而逆转多年来以日元融资的套利交易以及大量购买外国债券(包括美国国债)的趋势。</p><p>Edwards警告称,由于美国国债和股票都得益于日本持续的资金流入,美国市场易受冲击。他表示,如果日本国债收益率上升促使国内投资者回流,那么资金的撤离可能会重创美国资产,并给美元带来压力。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股大跌其实是因为日本?法兴银行:日债收益率飙升是最大风险信号</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股大跌其实是因为日本?法兴银行:日债收益率飙升是最大风险信号\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-21 15:21 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1372026.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉,自称“超级看跌者”的法兴银行策略师Albert Edwards表示,担心美股牛市能否持续的投资者应关注日本债券收益率。Edwards早在 5 月份就表示,日本债券收益率飙升是自 2008 年危机以来债券收益率被压低的制度开始以来,全球市场面临的最大风险。Edwards发文称,尽管投资者关注英伟达(NVDA.US)的业绩以及延迟公布的美国经济数据,但“当前市场最重要的单一发展是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1372026.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"161121":"银行","TVIX":"二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN","SVXY":"做空波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares","UVXY":"1.5倍做多短期期货恐慌指数ETF-Proshares","VIXY":"波动率短期期货指数ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1372026.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2585197302","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉,自称“超级看跌者”的法兴银行策略师Albert Edwards表示,担心美股牛市能否持续的投资者应关注日本债券收益率。Edwards早在 5 月份就表示,日本债券收益率飙升是自 2008 年危机以来债券收益率被压低的制度开始以来,全球市场面临的最大风险。Edwards发文称,尽管投资者关注英伟达(NVDA.US)的业绩以及延迟公布的美国经济数据,但“当前市场最重要的单一发展是日本国债收益率飙升……日本10 年期国债收益率已突破1.82%。这就是终结股市多头行情的因素吗?”Edwards认为,日本历来是重大金融转折的早期预警点,并补充说,日本机构可能会将资金调回国内,从而逆转多年来以日元融资的套利交易以及大量购买外国债券(包括美国国债)的趋势。Edwards警告称,由于美国国债和股票都得益于日本持续的资金流入,美国市场易受冲击。他表示,如果日本国债收益率上升促使国内投资者回流,那么资金的撤离可能会重创美国资产,并给美元带来压力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"161121":1.5,"VIXY":0.6,"VIXmain":0.6,"VXMmain":0.6,"UVXY":0.6,"SVXY":0.6,"TVIX":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":860,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502457495011368,"gmtCreate":1763689114105,"gmtModify":1763689116543,"author":{"id":"4192144422425150","authorId":"4192144422425150","name":"影枫16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7462462b6aabd8817da696a8c63632f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4192144422425150","idStr":"4192144422425150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"泡沫的产生是因为人们决定将金融财富(被高估的资产)兑换成现金,泡沫破裂之后往往伴随着市场和经济的下滑,甚至重大的政治变革……有道理","listText":"泡沫的产生是因为人们决定将金融财富(被高估的资产)兑换成现金,泡沫破裂之后往往伴随着市场和经济的下滑,甚至重大的政治变革……有道理","text":"泡沫的产生是因为人们决定将金融财富(被高估的资产)兑换成现金,泡沫破裂之后往往伴随着市场和经济的下滑,甚至重大的政治变革……有道理","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502457495011368","repostId":"1152378450","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152378450","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1763685126,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152378450?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-11-21 08:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"发生了什么?美股风云突变,“割裂”非农打压降息预期,市场还存在泡沫吗?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152378450","media":"券商中国","summary":"美股市场突然大跳水。有分析指出,受“割裂”的非农报告影响,美联储降息预期进一步受挫,叠科技股高估值的担忧情绪卷土重来,投资者选择大幅抛售,VIX恐慌指数日内飙升超11%。从数据来看,美国劳动力市场正面临一种“割裂”的情景,一方面就业人数超预期增长,另一方面,失业率意外升至四年新高。受此影响,市场对美联储的降息预期进一步降温。整体来看,美联储官员对12月是否降息存在较大分歧。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美股市场突然大跳水。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>超预期财报刺激下,隔夜美股三大指数集体大幅高开,纳指盘初一度大涨2.58%,但随后画风突变,三大指数大幅跳水,纳指大跌超2%,日内最大跌幅超1100点。美股大型科技股全线下跌,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>暴跌超6%;美股半导体板块亦集体重挫,费城半导体指数大超近5%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/311135a7c62f606ccd2dc0f36447fde0\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>有分析指出,受“割裂”的非农报告影响,美联储降息预期进一步受挫,叠科技股高估值的担忧情绪卷土重来,投资者选择大幅抛售,VIX恐慌指数日内飙升超11%。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5e72bf7b546711895a849463d3159eb\" tg-width=\"890\" tg-height=\"399\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据CME“美联储观察”,截至北京时间11月21日06:30,美联储12月降息25个基点的概率仅有39.6%,维持利率不变的概率升至60.4%;美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为50.2%,维持利率不变的概率为29.7%,累计降息50个基点的概率为20.2%。</p><h2 id=\"id_1282509843\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">美股大跳水</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">隔夜美股市场,上演过山车式行情,尽管英伟达强劲财报一度显著提振了市场情绪,纳指盘初一度大涨超2%,随后大跳水,三大指数由涨转跌,截至收盘,道指跌0.84%,标普500指数跌1.56%,纳指大跌2.15%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2475b1f8615e5dc1095d6dc28acc1fb\" tg-width=\"914\" tg-height=\"143\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中,英伟达盘初一度大涨5%,但最终收跌3%。虽然英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调Blackwell芯片的需求“爆棚”,并否认AI泡沫的存在,但投资者对美股科技股高估值的担忧情绪仍占上风。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aad7e7c35e17a7697d551ac43b0c8f03\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Miller Tabak首席市场策略师Matt Maley表示,美股市场情绪周四受到AI能否产生足够收入或利润以证明基础设施巨额支出合理性的质疑拖累。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另有分析指出,随着美国政府重新开放后,一系列宏观数据密集披露,给美联储未来的降息路径增添了巨大的不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>美股周四盘前,美国劳工部最新公布的数据显示,美国9月非农就业增加11.9万,远远高于市场预估的增加5.2万;9月失业率为4.4%,预估4.3%,前值为4.3%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>从数据来看,美国劳动力市场正面临一种“割裂”的情景,一方面就业人数超预期增长,另一方面,失业率意外升至四年新高。该数据为12月美联储议息会议前的最后一份就业报告,滞后且自相矛盾的数据令利率路径存分歧。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>受此影响,市场对美联储的降息预期进一步降温。最新的联邦基金期货显示,市场预计美联储12月降息的概率已降至不足40%,对于押注低利率的投资者而言,这是一大利空。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">号称“美联储传声筒”的知名财经记者Nick Timiraos撰文称,9月非农就业报告进一步加深了美联储内部分歧,这可能让更关注通胀的“鹰派”在反对再次降息时更有底气。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">IG Markets策略师Tony Sycamore解读称:“这种信息空白被视为加剧了美联储委员会内部分歧,并推动他们在12月议息会议上倾向于‘暂停降息’的决定。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">KKM金融公司分析师Jeff Kilburg表示:“英伟达的火热势头正在被12月降息概率下降所浇灭。市场原本预期12月会降息,但现在已经转变。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Globalt Investments高级投资组合经理Thomas Martin表示:“市场正在花时间消化其定位,在成长股与价值股之间如何权衡,以及在风险资产与避险资产之间如何布局。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美股大型科技股全线下跌,甲骨文暴跌超6%,英伟达、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AVGO\">博通</a>大跌超2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>跌超1%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>小幅下挫。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美股半导体板块亦集体大跌,费城半导体指数大超近5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>暴跌超10%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>暴跌近8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMAT\">应用材料</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRVL\">迈威尔科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ASML\">阿斯麦</a>大跌超5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>大跌超4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>跌近2%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">热门中概股普跌,纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌3.26%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DQ\">大全新能源</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CHA\">霸王茶姬</a>大跌超8%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YMM\">满帮</a>跌超7%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIPS\">唯品会</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>跌超6%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>跌超5%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PONY\">小马智行</a>跌超4%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>跌超3%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>跌超2%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>跌超1%。</p><h2 id=\"id_2618405384\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储内部分歧加剧,降息预期骤降</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在周四华盛顿的一场活动中,美联储理事迈克尔·巴尔表示,央行在考虑进一步降息时需保持谨慎。他表示:“我担心通胀率仍在3%左右,而我们的目标是2%,美联储承诺要实现这一目标。因此,我们现在制定货币政策时必须小心谨慎,确保双重使命的平衡。”据了解,迈克尔·巴尔在美联储9月和10月的会议上都支持降息,但并未就12月的会议给出明确态度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克周四认为,目前进一步降息可能对经济带来广泛风险。她说:“鉴于通胀持续高于美联储2%的目标,为了支持劳动力市场而降低利率可能会延长高通胀周期,同时还可能刺激金融市场的风险偏好。”她表示,近期股市上涨和宽松的信贷环境,助长了投资者冒险行为,如果再降低信贷成本,可能会助长高风险放贷。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但也有美联储官员认为,不考虑关税带来的影响,目前通胀水平已接近美联储的目标值,表达了对降息的正面态度。整体来看,美联储官员对12月是否降息存在较大分歧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">CME“美联储观察”预测,美联储12月降息25个基点概率为29.8%,维持利率不变概率为70.2%。此外,美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点概率为49.5%,维持利率不变概率为36%,累计降息50个基点概率为14.5%。</p><h2 id=\"id_2470220422\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">“市场确实有泡沫”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时,关于甲骨文的一则利空消息也加剧了市场的担忧情绪。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>由于甲骨文与AI相关的大举支出,同时相比微软或<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>等企业的信用评级更弱,交易员最近数月大举涌入甲骨文的信用违约互换(CDS)合约,使该合约成为市场对冲——并押空AI热潮的优选途径之一。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ICE\">洲际交易所</a>(ICE)数据服务公司的统计,近几个月来,防范甲骨文公司未来五年债务违约的成本已增长了两倍,周三最高达到一年约1.11个百分点,相当于每保障1000万美元本金,需大约11.1万美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">巴克莱信用策略师JigarPatel指出,随着AI怀疑论者的涌入,截至11月14日的七周内,甲骨文CDS的交易量大幅膨胀,至约50亿美元,而去年同期仅为2亿美元出头。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>当地时间11月20日,桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧表示,尽管人工智能(AI)相关投资正在推动市场形成泡沫,但投资者并不需要因此立刻退出。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">达利欧在接受采访时表示:“市场里确实有泡沫,但我们还没看到刺破泡沫的因素。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">达利欧认为,泡沫正在形成,但必须要有外部因素才能刺破泡沫,这个因素不太可能来自更紧缩的货币政策,但可能来自更高的财富税。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">达利欧进一步表示,泡沫不会因为某家公司业绩好或坏而破裂。泡沫不会因为人们某天醒来突然觉得盈利不足以支撑价格而崩裂。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他解释说,泡沫的产生是因为人们决定将金融财富(被高估的资产)兑换成现金,泡沫破裂之后往往伴随着市场和经济的下滑,甚至重大的政治变革。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管达利欧并不建议投资者因为存在泡沫就立刻卖出,但他建议采取防御措施,例如持有黄金或减少高风险信用敞口。</p></body></html>","source":"cszg","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>发生了什么?美股风云突变,“割裂”非农打压降息预期,市场还存在泡沫吗?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n发生了什么?美股风云突变,“割裂”非农打压降息预期,市场还存在泡沫吗?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-11-21 08:32 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/n-CE7YinatGNZWVwzIwTlg><strong>券商中国</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美股市场突然大跳水。在英伟达超预期财报刺激下,隔夜美股三大指数集体大幅高开,纳指盘初一度大涨2.58%,但随后画风突变,三大指数大幅跳水,纳指大跌超2%,日内最大跌幅超1100点。美股大型科技股全线下跌,甲骨文暴跌超6%;美股半导体板块亦集体重挫,费城半导体指数大超近5%。有分析指出,受“割裂”的非农报告影响,美联储降息预期进一步受挫,叠科技股高估值的担忧情绪卷土重来,投资者选择大幅抛售,VIX...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/n-CE7YinatGNZWVwzIwTlg\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e910a0d7e1da6d4a41f6d581ee31760f","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/n-CE7YinatGNZWVwzIwTlg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152378450","content_text":"美股市场突然大跳水。在英伟达超预期财报刺激下,隔夜美股三大指数集体大幅高开,纳指盘初一度大涨2.58%,但随后画风突变,三大指数大幅跳水,纳指大跌超2%,日内最大跌幅超1100点。美股大型科技股全线下跌,甲骨文暴跌超6%;美股半导体板块亦集体重挫,费城半导体指数大超近5%。有分析指出,受“割裂”的非农报告影响,美联储降息预期进一步受挫,叠科技股高估值的担忧情绪卷土重来,投资者选择大幅抛售,VIX恐慌指数日内飙升超11%。据CME“美联储观察”,截至北京时间11月21日06:30,美联储12月降息25个基点的概率仅有39.6%,维持利率不变的概率升至60.4%;美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为50.2%,维持利率不变的概率为29.7%,累计降息50个基点的概率为20.2%。美股大跳水隔夜美股市场,上演过山车式行情,尽管英伟达强劲财报一度显著提振了市场情绪,纳指盘初一度大涨超2%,随后大跳水,三大指数由涨转跌,截至收盘,道指跌0.84%,标普500指数跌1.56%,纳指大跌2.15%。其中,英伟达盘初一度大涨5%,但最终收跌3%。虽然英伟达CEO黄仁勋强调Blackwell芯片的需求“爆棚”,并否认AI泡沫的存在,但投资者对美股科技股高估值的担忧情绪仍占上风。Miller Tabak首席市场策略师Matt Maley表示,美股市场情绪周四受到AI能否产生足够收入或利润以证明基础设施巨额支出合理性的质疑拖累。另有分析指出,随着美国政府重新开放后,一系列宏观数据密集披露,给美联储未来的降息路径增添了巨大的不确定性。美股周四盘前,美国劳工部最新公布的数据显示,美国9月非农就业增加11.9万,远远高于市场预估的增加5.2万;9月失业率为4.4%,预估4.3%,前值为4.3%。从数据来看,美国劳动力市场正面临一种“割裂”的情景,一方面就业人数超预期增长,另一方面,失业率意外升至四年新高。该数据为12月美联储议息会议前的最后一份就业报告,滞后且自相矛盾的数据令利率路径存分歧。受此影响,市场对美联储的降息预期进一步降温。最新的联邦基金期货显示,市场预计美联储12月降息的概率已降至不足40%,对于押注低利率的投资者而言,这是一大利空。号称“美联储传声筒”的知名财经记者Nick Timiraos撰文称,9月非农就业报告进一步加深了美联储内部分歧,这可能让更关注通胀的“鹰派”在反对再次降息时更有底气。IG Markets策略师Tony Sycamore解读称:“这种信息空白被视为加剧了美联储委员会内部分歧,并推动他们在12月议息会议上倾向于‘暂停降息’的决定。”KKM金融公司分析师Jeff Kilburg表示:“英伟达的火热势头正在被12月降息概率下降所浇灭。市场原本预期12月会降息,但现在已经转变。”Globalt Investments高级投资组合经理Thomas Martin表示:“市场正在花时间消化其定位,在成长股与价值股之间如何权衡,以及在风险资产与避险资产之间如何布局。”美股大型科技股全线下跌,甲骨文暴跌超6%,英伟达、亚马逊、特斯拉、博通大跌超2%,微软、谷歌跌超1%,苹果、Meta小幅下挫。美股半导体板块亦集体大跌,费城半导体指数大超近5%,美光科技暴跌超10%,AMD暴跌近8%,应用材料、迈威尔科技、阿斯麦大跌超5%,英特尔大跌超4%,台积电跌近2%。热门中概股普跌,纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌3.26%,大全新能源、霸王茶姬大跌超8%,满帮跌超7%,唯品会、蔚来跌超6%,腾讯音乐、小鹏汽车跌超5%,拼多多、哔哩哔哩、百度、小马智行跌超4%,阿里巴巴跌超3%,理想汽车跌超2%,京东跌超1%。美联储内部分歧加剧,降息预期骤降在周四华盛顿的一场活动中,美联储理事迈克尔·巴尔表示,央行在考虑进一步降息时需保持谨慎。他表示:“我担心通胀率仍在3%左右,而我们的目标是2%,美联储承诺要实现这一目标。因此,我们现在制定货币政策时必须小心谨慎,确保双重使命的平衡。”据了解,迈克尔·巴尔在美联储9月和10月的会议上都支持降息,但并未就12月的会议给出明确态度。克利夫兰联储主席贝丝·哈马克周四认为,目前进一步降息可能对经济带来广泛风险。她说:“鉴于通胀持续高于美联储2%的目标,为了支持劳动力市场而降低利率可能会延长高通胀周期,同时还可能刺激金融市场的风险偏好。”她表示,近期股市上涨和宽松的信贷环境,助长了投资者冒险行为,如果再降低信贷成本,可能会助长高风险放贷。但也有美联储官员认为,不考虑关税带来的影响,目前通胀水平已接近美联储的目标值,表达了对降息的正面态度。整体来看,美联储官员对12月是否降息存在较大分歧。CME“美联储观察”预测,美联储12月降息25个基点概率为29.8%,维持利率不变概率为70.2%。此外,美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点概率为49.5%,维持利率不变概率为36%,累计降息50个基点概率为14.5%。“市场确实有泡沫”与此同时,关于甲骨文的一则利空消息也加剧了市场的担忧情绪。由于甲骨文与AI相关的大举支出,同时相比微软或谷歌等企业的信用评级更弱,交易员最近数月大举涌入甲骨文的信用违约互换(CDS)合约,使该合约成为市场对冲——并押空AI热潮的优选途径之一。根据洲际交易所(ICE)数据服务公司的统计,近几个月来,防范甲骨文公司未来五年债务违约的成本已增长了两倍,周三最高达到一年约1.11个百分点,相当于每保障1000万美元本金,需大约11.1万美元。巴克莱信用策略师JigarPatel指出,随着AI怀疑论者的涌入,截至11月14日的七周内,甲骨文CDS的交易量大幅膨胀,至约50亿美元,而去年同期仅为2亿美元出头。当地时间11月20日,桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧表示,尽管人工智能(AI)相关投资正在推动市场形成泡沫,但投资者并不需要因此立刻退出。达利欧在接受采访时表示:“市场里确实有泡沫,但我们还没看到刺破泡沫的因素。”达利欧认为,泡沫正在形成,但必须要有外部因素才能刺破泡沫,这个因素不太可能来自更紧缩的货币政策,但可能来自更高的财富税。达利欧进一步表示,泡沫不会因为某家公司业绩好或坏而破裂。泡沫不会因为人们某天醒来突然觉得盈利不足以支撑价格而崩裂。他解释说,泡沫的产生是因为人们决定将金融财富(被高估的资产)兑换成现金,泡沫破裂之后往往伴随着市场和经济的下滑,甚至重大的政治变革。尽管达利欧并不建议投资者因为存在泡沫就立刻卖出,但他建议采取防御措施,例如持有黄金或减少高风险信用敞口。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":2,".SPX":2,".IXIC":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":493055749816536,"gmtCreate":1761395682006,"gmtModify":1761395684505,"author":{"id":"4192144422425150","authorId":"4192144422425150","name":"影枫16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7462462b6aabd8817da696a8c63632f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4192144422425150","idStr":"4192144422425150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说实话,如果上班没时间,是优选,但,如果有时间,这玩法,不是优选","listText":"说实话,如果上班没时间,是优选,但,如果有时间,这玩法,不是优选","text":"说实话,如果上班没时间,是优选,但,如果有时间,这玩法,不是优选","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/493055749816536","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":491444155650248,"gmtCreate":1761002221478,"gmtModify":1761002223939,"author":{"id":"4192144422425150","authorId":"4192144422425150","name":"影枫16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7462462b6aabd8817da696a8c63632f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4192144422425150","idStr":"4192144422425150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不同标的,不同策略,别误导别人","listText":"不同标的,不同策略,别误导别人","text":"不同标的,不同策略,别误导别人","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/491444155650248","repostId":"491190453580024","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":491190453580024,"gmtCreate":1760925430000,"gmtModify":1760973750297,"author":{"id":"10000000000010547","authorId":"10000000000010547","name":"隐士谢六六","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/507186a91a9b44b2e280afb6f8114da1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010547","idStr":"10000000000010547"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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11:22","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"微软将升级Edge内置PDF阅读器:响应更快、交互更流畅","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2576809417","media":"DoNews","summary":"据科技媒体Windows Report消息,微软计划在未来版本的Edge浏览器中,对内置PDF阅读器进行全面升级,迁移至WebUI 2.0架构。此次升级旨在提升底层性能与界面一致性,使PDF文件的打开、滚动和批注操作更加迅速灵敏。WebUI 2.0已应用于设置、历史记录等核心模块,部分功能运行效率提升高达40%。新PDF查看器将保留现有布局,不改变用户操作习惯,预计于2026年5月面向所有用户推送。","content":"<html><body><article><p>据科技媒体Windows Report消息,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>计划在未来版本的Edge浏览器中,对内置PDF阅读器进行全面升级,迁移至WebUI 2.0架构。此次升级旨在提升底层性能与界面一致性,使PDF文件的打开、滚动和批注操作更加迅速灵敏。WebUI 2.0已应用于设置、历史记录等核心模块,部分功能运行效率提升高达40%。新PDF查看器将保留现有布局,不改变用户操作习惯,预计于2026年5月面向所有用户推送。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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2.0架构。此次升级旨在提升底层性能与界面一致性,使PDF文件的打开、滚动和批注操作更加迅速灵敏。WebUI 2.0已应用于设置、历史记录等核心模块,部分功能运行效率提升高达40%。新PDF查看器将保留现有布局,不改变用户操作习惯,预计于2026年5月面向所有用户推送...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20251018112419a6bfc055&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU2505996509.AUD":"WELLINGTON MULTI-ASSET HIGH INCOME \"AM4H\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","SGXZ23171101.USD":"NIKKO AM SHENTON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES (USD) ACC","IE00BFXG0V08.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL LEADERS \"B\" (USD) ACC","MSFT":"微软","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD","LU0708995401.HKD":"FRANKLIN U.S. OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU0426412945.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL FRANCHISE \"A\" (USD) 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11:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"币圈史上最大爆仓日,10·11暴跌启示录","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140284047","media":"深潮TechFlow","summary":"继 312、519 之后,币圈又多了一个暴跌纪念日——10 月 11 日。但在 10 月 11 日,当关税冲击引发抛售时,USDe 出现明显脱锚,短时间内一度跌破 0.66 美元,成为这场暴跌的标志性事件。总体来看,10·11 暴跌并不是单一原因,而是三股力量的合谋:宏观黑天鹅的政策冲击,杠杆繁荣下的结构脆弱,以及做市商流动性保护的崩溃。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>继 312、519 之后,币圈又多了一个暴跌纪念日——10 月 11 日。</p><p>比特币一度跌破 11 万美元,USDE 脱锚,山寨币更是出现断崖式下跌,不少项目价格在短暂几分钟内直接归零,没错是真的归零。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3c785e7ea7c94dd468e3499aba674a6\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"1700\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07123b1ba7d305a848e19fbb82a100dc\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1808\"/></p><p>Coinglass 数据显示,截至 11 日 9 时,24 小时爆仓额达到 192 亿美元,爆仓人数达 164 万人,最大单笔爆仓单超 2 亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而,这数据或许只是冰山一角,据相关从业者透露,真实爆仓数据远超公开,<strong>“Binance 爆仓数据应该远超 Hyperliquid 和 Bybit”</strong>,根据 Coinglass 数据披露,目前 Binnace 爆仓数据仅为 Hyperliquid 的 5 分之一。</p><p>加密数据分析师 MLM(@mlmabc)认为市场真实爆仓数据在 300-400 亿美元左右。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aac031460dbe4fe8441a1f5aff16ac8a\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\"/></p><p>过去,我们曾自我安慰,市场今非昔比,变得更加完善,不会再出现 312 这般动荡行情,然而再一次被现实无情打脸。</p><p>表面看,这是一次突如其来的黑天鹅冲击,但真正让市场崩塌的,或是长期积累的杠杆繁荣和做市商体系的结构性缺陷。</p><p>这场暴跌的导火索是特朗普。</p><p>当天,他突然宣布对中国商品加征新一轮关税。中美贸易摩擦骤然升级,全球风险资产瞬间承压。避险情绪急剧升温,资本纷纷逃向美元和美债,而加密货币作为风险资产的代表,首当其冲地成为被抛售的标的。</p><p>这成为压垮市场的第一根稻草。</p><p>然而,仅靠一纸关税,无法解释为何整个加密市场瞬间出现雪崩,真正的关键在于市场的虚假繁荣早已建立在高杠杆之上。</p><p>过去数月,比特币与主流资产屡创新高,但这背后大部分资金并非长期资本,而是通过合约、借贷和流动性挖矿堆叠出来的杠杆资金。当利空来袭,首先被击中的就是这些高杠杆多头仓位。支撑位一旦被跌穿,强平接连触发,抛盘越滚越大,市场陷入“多杀多”的链式爆仓。</p><p>最典型的案例或许是 USDE,自从官方推出 12% 补贴政策后,引发大量用户参与循环贷进行套利。这种机制在牛市中极具诱惑,短时间内吸引了大量资金进入,也成为推动市场繁荣的重要引擎。但在 10 月 11 日,当关税冲击引发抛售时,USDe 出现明显脱锚,短时间内一度跌破 0.66 美元,成为这场暴跌的标志性事件。</p><p>更致命的,是做市商机制在这场暴跌中彻底失灵。</p><p>Greeks.live 工作人员大老师 Bugsbunny 分析认为,目前主动做市商的资金有限,他们会把主要的流动性资源集中在 Tier0、Tier1 项目上,比如 BTC、ETH,而对于中长尾的山寨币,只是“顺带”提供一点支撑。</p><p>在 Jump 崩塌之后,市场的流动性供应更多依赖于这些主动 MM,但他们缺乏完善的尾部风险对冲机制,只能覆盖日常行情,而在极端行情下,资金根本不够托底。</p><p>当特朗普的关税消息引爆市场恐慌时,做市商不得不优先保证大项目的安全,把原本分配给小币种的资金抽走。结果,山寨币市场彻底失去了对手盘,卖压砸下来无人承接,价格出现近乎“自由落体”的暴跌。IOTX 等代币一度跌近归零,正是流动性枯竭的最直观体现。</p><p>事实上,随着今年以来新项目大量涌现,主动 MM 的资金早已超负荷,市场缺乏足够的衍生品去对冲尾部风险,这一次不过是彻底揭开了遮羞布。</p><p>此外,Bugsbunny 认为更致命的是,这次暴跌发生于周五晚上(亚盘的周六凌晨),无论是欧美还是亚洲,做市商都有明确的工作时段。如果这次发生在工作日的盘中,可能流动性早就被修复。</p><p>“但偏偏今天是周五,一切都太巧了。”</p><p>是危险,也是机遇,有人欢喜有人愁。</p><p>10 月 10 日,特朗普发布声明前,某比特币早期投资者持续在 Hyperliquid 增加对 BTC 和 ETH 的做空仓位,总仓位超 11 亿美元,大跌之后,赚得盆满钵满。也有人火中取栗,利用 USDE、BNSOL 和 WBETH 脱锚套利……</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">总体来看,10·11 暴跌并不是单一原因,而是三股力量的合谋:<strong>宏观黑天鹅的政策冲击,杠杆繁荣下的结构脆弱,以及做市商流动性保护的崩溃。</strong></p><p>早上看来,看着朋友圈的哀鸿遍野,倍感市场的残酷与无情。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">加密市场从来不是一条平坦的高速路,它更像是布满暗礁的海域。牛市的繁荣往往裹挟着杠杆的幻象,而黑天鹅则永远潜伏在角落里,随时可能扑面而来。<strong>对散户而言来说,最重要的不是时刻追逐暴利,而是活下去。</strong></p><p>只要能活下去,就有机会在下一轮周期中站上新的起点,一旦在极端行情中被全仓清算,可能再无机会回到牌桌。</p><p>再重复一遍,活下去才是一切。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1592805329705","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>币圈史上最大爆仓日,10·11暴跌启示录</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n币圈史上最大爆仓日,10·11暴跌启示录\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-11 11:01 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nsRtIw7izgEIsFF2MFfPng><strong>深潮TechFlow</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>继 312、519 之后,币圈又多了一个暴跌纪念日——10 月 11 日。比特币一度跌破 11 万美元,USDE 脱锚,山寨币更是出现断崖式下跌,不少项目价格在短暂几分钟内直接归零,没错是真的归零。Coinglass 数据显示,截至 11 日 9 时,24 小时爆仓额达到 192 亿美元,爆仓人数达 164 万人,最大单笔爆仓单超 2 亿美元。然而,这数据或许只是冰山一角,据相关从业者透露,真实...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nsRtIw7izgEIsFF2MFfPng\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/962be253ee7459c393769e9105cb1429","relate_stocks":{"BLSH":"Bullish","UPXI":"Upexi, Inc.","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","CRCL":"Circle Internet Corp.","MARA":"MARA Holdings","HOOD":"Robinhood","BMNR":"BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","SBET":"SharpLink Gaming","MSTR":"Strategy","CLSK":"CleanSpark, Inc."},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nsRtIw7izgEIsFF2MFfPng","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140284047","content_text":"继 312、519 之后,币圈又多了一个暴跌纪念日——10 月 11 日。比特币一度跌破 11 万美元,USDE 脱锚,山寨币更是出现断崖式下跌,不少项目价格在短暂几分钟内直接归零,没错是真的归零。Coinglass 数据显示,截至 11 日 9 时,24 小时爆仓额达到 192 亿美元,爆仓人数达 164 万人,最大单笔爆仓单超 2 亿美元。然而,这数据或许只是冰山一角,据相关从业者透露,真实爆仓数据远超公开,“Binance 爆仓数据应该远超 Hyperliquid 和 Bybit”,根据 Coinglass 数据披露,目前 Binnace 爆仓数据仅为 Hyperliquid 的 5 分之一。加密数据分析师 MLM(@mlmabc)认为市场真实爆仓数据在 300-400 亿美元左右。过去,我们曾自我安慰,市场今非昔比,变得更加完善,不会再出现 312 这般动荡行情,然而再一次被现实无情打脸。表面看,这是一次突如其来的黑天鹅冲击,但真正让市场崩塌的,或是长期积累的杠杆繁荣和做市商体系的结构性缺陷。这场暴跌的导火索是特朗普。当天,他突然宣布对中国商品加征新一轮关税。中美贸易摩擦骤然升级,全球风险资产瞬间承压。避险情绪急剧升温,资本纷纷逃向美元和美债,而加密货币作为风险资产的代表,首当其冲地成为被抛售的标的。这成为压垮市场的第一根稻草。然而,仅靠一纸关税,无法解释为何整个加密市场瞬间出现雪崩,真正的关键在于市场的虚假繁荣早已建立在高杠杆之上。过去数月,比特币与主流资产屡创新高,但这背后大部分资金并非长期资本,而是通过合约、借贷和流动性挖矿堆叠出来的杠杆资金。当利空来袭,首先被击中的就是这些高杠杆多头仓位。支撑位一旦被跌穿,强平接连触发,抛盘越滚越大,市场陷入“多杀多”的链式爆仓。最典型的案例或许是 USDE,自从官方推出 12% 补贴政策后,引发大量用户参与循环贷进行套利。这种机制在牛市中极具诱惑,短时间内吸引了大量资金进入,也成为推动市场繁荣的重要引擎。但在 10 月 11 日,当关税冲击引发抛售时,USDe 出现明显脱锚,短时间内一度跌破 0.66 美元,成为这场暴跌的标志性事件。更致命的,是做市商机制在这场暴跌中彻底失灵。Greeks.live 工作人员大老师 Bugsbunny 分析认为,目前主动做市商的资金有限,他们会把主要的流动性资源集中在 Tier0、Tier1 项目上,比如 BTC、ETH,而对于中长尾的山寨币,只是“顺带”提供一点支撑。在 Jump 崩塌之后,市场的流动性供应更多依赖于这些主动 MM,但他们缺乏完善的尾部风险对冲机制,只能覆盖日常行情,而在极端行情下,资金根本不够托底。当特朗普的关税消息引爆市场恐慌时,做市商不得不优先保证大项目的安全,把原本分配给小币种的资金抽走。结果,山寨币市场彻底失去了对手盘,卖压砸下来无人承接,价格出现近乎“自由落体”的暴跌。IOTX 等代币一度跌近归零,正是流动性枯竭的最直观体现。事实上,随着今年以来新项目大量涌现,主动 MM 的资金早已超负荷,市场缺乏足够的衍生品去对冲尾部风险,这一次不过是彻底揭开了遮羞布。此外,Bugsbunny 认为更致命的是,这次暴跌发生于周五晚上(亚盘的周六凌晨),无论是欧美还是亚洲,做市商都有明确的工作时段。如果这次发生在工作日的盘中,可能流动性早就被修复。“但偏偏今天是周五,一切都太巧了。”是危险,也是机遇,有人欢喜有人愁。10 月 10 日,特朗普发布声明前,某比特币早期投资者持续在 Hyperliquid 增加对 BTC 和 ETH 的做空仓位,总仓位超 11 亿美元,大跌之后,赚得盆满钵满。也有人火中取栗,利用 USDE、BNSOL 和 WBETH 脱锚套利……总体来看,10·11 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Xu(徐凯文)</strong>是专注中美科技与资本交叉领域的独立观察者,知名科技评论人。他创办的ChinaTalk播客及Newsletter在专业圈层颇具影响力,擅长从资本流向、组织行为与地缘政治多维度解构技术演进逻辑。</p><p>我们给大家梳理了一下文章要点:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>给市场预期泼盆冷水</strong>:虽然大家都在等DeepSeek的新模型,但作者直言“不要指望它能像去年那样再次震惊世界”。因为现在的市场已经被“开源模型”喂饱了,DeepSeek虽然打响了第一枪,但现在并不是唯一、也不是最开源的玩家了(比如它至今没开源数据集)。</p></li><li><p><strong>唯一的“零融资”异类</strong>:现在的AI圈就是“销金窟”,连马斯克都没扛住,最近也给xAI融了一笔高达200亿美元的巨资。但DeepSeek的老板梁文锋至今坚持“零外部融资”,这在所有顶尖实验室里是独一份的,他把控制权看得比钱重。</p></li><li><p><strong>超级“印钞机”兜底</strong>:梁文锋能这么硬气,是因为他背后的量化基金“幻方量化”太赚钱了。去年,幻方以53%的回报率赚了超7亿美元(约50亿人民币)的利润。梁文锋直接把这些钱拿来买显卡、招人,这种用“老钱”养“新梦”的模式,让他完全不需要看投资人的脸色。</p></li><li><p><strong>被VC拒绝反而是福报</strong>:2023年DeepSeek刚成立时其实找过融资,但当时国内VC普遍短视、不敢投,结果这反而成了“塞翁失马”。作者认为,一旦拿了VC的钱,就必须背上商业化KPI,动作就会变形,而现在的DeepSeek只需要对技术负责,不需要对财报负责。</p></li><li><p><strong>“钱多”麻烦多</strong>:这是一个非常深刻的洞察——钱太多会滋生“大公司病”。作者举了个很讽刺的例子:有些富得流油的实验室(比如Thinking Machines),甚至在办公室健身房里用上了<strong>印着自家Logo的定制杠铃片</strong>。这种浮夸的排场背后,是员工盯着期权带来的“纸面富贵”,部门之间为了争夺算力资源搞“宫斗”。而DeepSeek因为没有外部估值,团队极度扁平,没有资源内耗。</p></li><li><p><strong>算力不是万能药</strong>:文章引用了前OpenAI大神Ilya Sutskever的观点——<strong>真正的颠覆性创新往往不需要无限堆算力</strong>。Transformer架构当年只用了8到64张卡就跑出来了。钱太多反而会让团队变懒,以为堆算力就能解决一切,从而失去了“科研品味”。</p></li><li><p><strong>投资人的终极悖论</strong>:最后,作者站在一位投资人的角度发出了一声叹息——作为一个投资人,他做梦都想投DeepSeek;但他心里也清楚,<strong>一旦DeepSeek接受了外部投资,那种纯粹的特质就会消失了</strong>。</p></li></ul><p>作者原文如下(由AI翻译):</p><blockquote><p><strong>没有商业模式:DeepSeek的长期优势</strong></p><p>作者:Kevin S. Xu</p><p>随着1月27日“DeepSeek时刻(DeepSeek Moment)”一周年纪念日的临近,市场对于DeepSeek在农历新年(2月17日)前发布一款更强大新模型的期待正日益高涨。</p><p>然而,过高的期望几乎注定会带来失望。虽然我也急切地等待着这款新模型,想看看DeepSeek究竟在忙些什么,但我并不预期它会像一年前那样再次震惊市场。整个AI行业乃至更广泛的市场,已经习惯了每隔一两个月就有一款新的“开放权重”模型发布,尤其是来自中国实验室的模型,它们即便算不上最尖端,也往往表现扎实。凭借着开放和免费的特性,这些模型正以一种无法追踪和溯源的方式在各地获得牵引力——这也是开源技术整体上的一种美德(或者说是缺陷)。正如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>CEO黄仁勋喜欢说的那样,以Token生成量计算,世界上最大的AI仍然是OpenAI,但第二大的,是开源AI。</p><p>DeepSeek或许在去年通过发布V3和R1打响了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ME8U.SI\">MIT</a> License许可的开源模型的第一枪,但其他实验室迅速跟进,从同样来自中国的竞争对手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>及其Qwen(通义千问)模型系列,到OpenAI推出的gpt-oss模型。(两者均使用Apache 2.0许可,这是另一种常见的开源宽松许可。)正如我之前指出的,<strong>如果不是因为DeepSeek,OpenAI可能永远不会感受到压力,从而去兑现其开源根源的承诺,哪怕只是口头上的,比如发布gpt-oss。</strong>虽然DeepSeek继续开源其模型的权重以及各种工具和库,但它已不再是市场上最开放的实验室,因为它从未开放过其用于训练模型的数据集或主代码库。</p><p>根据Artificial Analysis的数据,目前全球开放程度排名前三的模型分别来自NVIDIA(Nemotron 3)、Allen Institute(Olmo 3)和穆罕默德·本·扎耶德人工智能大学(MBZUAI,K2-V2)。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9db0d303a04711cb0df0229809a8f3ab\" tg-width=\"680\" tg-height=\"472\"/></p><p>因此,DeepSeek的模型不再是开放模型中能力最强的,不再是最便宜的,甚至也不再是最开放的。那么,是否还有一个充分的理由,让我们继续给予这个曾经震惊世界的实验室超乎寻常的关注?</p><p>是的,我认为有。但不是因为它的模型或技术进步,而是因为其内部的激励机制和商业模式。更确切地说,<strong>我们应该关注DeepSeek,因为它没有商业模式</strong>——在中国、美国及其他地区的所有前沿实验室中,这是一个独特且反直觉的特性,而非缺陷。</p><h2 id=\"id_4024624920\">1. 自筹资金支撑的 AGI 梦想</h2><p>早在DeepSeek迎来其“高光时刻”并成为家喻户晓的名字之前的几周,我首次撰写关于DeepSeek的文章时(当时也在ChinaTalk播客上讨论过),就提到了这种“无商业模式优势”。值得注意的是,当整个AI世界都被资本淹没时,这种优势竟表现得如此顽固且持久。</p><p>梁文锋没有筹集任何外部资金。该实验室确实通过其API服务产生一些收入,但仍在不断降低定价。梁文锋满足于用他的量化基金——幻方量化的收益来资助DeepSeek的研发,正是幻方量化最初孵化了DeepSeek。需要明确的是,梁文锋在2023年ChatGPT推出几个月后想要创办DeepSeek时,确实曾尝试从中国投资者那里筹集风险投资。但他那“笃信AGI(AGI-pilled)”的理想主义,加上缺乏商业计划书,以及中国VC著名的短视和风险厌恶,导致了那次融资努力的失败——但这反而塞翁失马,焉知非福。</p><p>随着2025年的飞逝,为了不错过更多潜在的进步,越来越多的资金涌入,资助了更多的AI进展。每一个哪怕只有一点点牵引力的实验室都筹集了更多的钱,随之而来的是对未来商业化的更多期望。一批所谓的“AI新实验室”——由明星研究员领导的、风投支持的纯研究实验室——如雨后春笋般涌现,例如Thinking Machines Lab(Mira Murati)、SSI(Ilya Sutskever)和AMI Labs(Yann LeCun)。甚至连我过去常拿来与DeepSeek做最紧密类比的xAI——因为它们同样缺乏商业化的紧迫性——也屈服于外部资本的诱惑。几天前,埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)的实验室完成了一轮200亿美元的E轮融资,资金结构包含了股权和债权。</p><p>即便是世界上最富有的人之一,也无法对更多的钱说“不”!与此同时,梁文锋继续自筹资金维持他那神秘的店铺和他的AGI梦想。当然,梁文锋的量化基金去年业绩<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002296\">辉煌</a>,以53%的回报率创造了超过7亿美元的利润,这无疑提供了巨大帮助。据推测,这些利润的大部分都投入到了购买更多GPU(尽管面临美国的出口管制,但尽其所能)和招聘人才上,以继续推动DeepSeek的研究路线图。尽管如此,在DeepSeek获得全球知名度并在AI行业实现100%的品牌认知度之后,筹集一二十亿美元以加速其步伐本应是轻而易举的事。无论你爱它还是恨它,每个人都听说过它。</p><p>然而,对外部资金说“不”,让你能够掌控自己的命运。如果你的自定命运是“致力于让AGI成为现实……用好奇心解开AGI之谜……用长期主义回答本质问题”——这是DeepSeek在HuggingFace页面上的标语——那么用较少的资金换取完全的控制权是一个值得的权衡。当然,你也可以通过一些“公司治理创新”来达到目的。Thinking Machines Lab就是这种情况,创始人的1票投票权价值比所有其他董事会成员的票数总和还多1票,从而实际上拥有完全控制权。<strong>但无论你在董事会层面如何“创新”,一旦你接受了风险投资,为了产生风投规模的回报而进行的大规模商业化,迟早是会被期待的。</strong></p><p>DeepSeek没有任何这些预期。因此,它没有商业模式,也不需要商业模式。通往AGI的道路需要算力、人才,以及相当剂量的良好研究品味。没人规定它必须需要一个商业模式。</p><h2 id=\"id_2633551634\">2. 钱多麻烦多,没钱没烦恼</h2><p>当然,筹集更多资金最常见的理由是为了购买更多的算力来支持研究。然而,并不显见的是,要产出好的研究成果,更多的算力总是必要的。</p><p>这一洞察并非DeepSeek那独特的自筹资金架构所独有。Ilya Sutskever,这位可以说是拥有最佳研究品味的AI研究员,也表示同意。他在Dwarkesh播客中用自己的话说道:</p><blockquote><p>“算力规模已经足够大,以至于并不显见你需要那么多额外的算力来证明某个想法。我给你打个比方。AlexNet是建立在两块GPU上的。那是用于它的总算力。Transformer是建立在8到64块GPU上的。2017年没有哪篇Transformer论文的实验使用了超过64块GPU,这相当于什么,今天的两块GPU?ResNet也是如此,对吧?你可以争辩说,o1推理模型(o1 reasoning)并不是世界上最耗算力的东西。</p><p>因此,对于研究来说,你绝对需要一定量的算力,但远非显而易见的是,你需要绝对最大量的算力来进行研究。”</p></blockquote><p>另一方面,通过消除外部资金的附带条件,以及“仅仅因为有钱就必须购买更多算力”的必要性,两种组织层面的优势显现出来。而DeepSeek两者兼备。</p><p><strong>首先,即使资源更加有限,内部也不存在资源竞争。</strong> 这里没有官僚主义、内斗、权力斗争,也没有为了决定GPU是应该支持新产品发布、扩展现有流行服务的推理需求,还是分配给一个新的研究想法而进行的利益交换。在一个没有外部资金、没有商业模式的小型实验室里,良好的研究品味和新想法可以得到最大程度的支持和拥抱,即使绝对层面上的总算力是有限的。</p><p><strong>其次,基于薪酬、津贴或团队获得的算力多少而产生的嫉妒和等级秩序更少,而这些往往是有毒的,却根植于人性之中。</strong> 你的组织瞬间变得扁平,并且可以保持扁平。伴随外部资金而来的不仅是商业模式的期望,还有估值、股票期权,以及一个高估值AI实验室所有的浮华装饰,无论这种估值在早期是多么没有意义。来自梦幻估值的纸面财富往往会让位于膨胀的自我价值感、嫉妒,以及被资金更雄厚的竞争对手挖角。这些浮华装饰不仅仅关乎个人财富创造,还与实验室的品牌、声望和吸引更多人才的魅力捆绑在一起。而这些装饰可能会变得相当荒谬,比如该实验室办公室健身房里那些印有“Thinking Machines”品牌的杠铃片:</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/157333b07bbb73ecd453a22984cebf35\" tg-width=\"675\" tg-height=\"900\"/></p><p>DeepSeek有自己的健身房吗?我不知道。可能有。但我很确定它没有印着品牌的杠铃片。Ilya Sutskever是否希望他能像梁文锋一样自筹资金来运营SSI(迄今已筹集30亿美元)?可能吧。他可能拥有最好的直觉和研究品味,但他无法阻止挖角者——甚至他的联合创始人CEO也被<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>财力更雄厚的扎克伯格挖走了。这并不是说DeepSeek对挖角免疫。其明星研究员之一罗福莉,现在正领导着财力更雄厚的雷军旗下<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIACY\">小米</a>的AI工作。</p><p>在一个被金钱淹没的行业,以及金钱总是带来的阴谋和戏剧性中,DeepSeek因零外部资金而导致的商业模式缺失,是其唯一持久优势的源泉:<strong>为服务于AGI研究而实现的内部最大化对齐,别无其他。</strong></p><p>我甚至不确定我是否相信AGI。但作为一名投资者和资本家,我很乐意进入DeepSeek的股东名册。话虽如此,如果DeepSeek曾经让我或任何外部投资者进入,那么让DeepSeek之所以成为DeepSeek的特质,将彻底毁掉,不复存在。</p></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n没有商业模式--DeepSeek最坚固的“护城河”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-01-18 16:58 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3763534><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在全球AI巨头都被资本裹挟着必须赚钱的时候,DeepSeek是唯一一个可以不计成本、不看脸色、只为AGI梦想狂奔的“自由人”。幻方量化(去年回报率53%)超级“印钞机”兜底之下,DeepSeek是唯一的“零融资”异类。在即将到来的1月27日——也就是“DeepSeek时刻”一周年之际,全球AI社区都期待DeepSeek再来个大招。市场喧嚣期待之时,知名科技评论作者Kevin Xu发布长文对...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3763534\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2d10971e5f3c03dc2f148badda342d3","relate_stocks":{"BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4587":"ChatGPT概念","BK4588":"碎股","BK4528":"SaaS概念","AI":"C3.ai, Inc.","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4543":"AI"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3763534","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2604481920","content_text":"在全球AI巨头都被资本裹挟着必须赚钱的时候,DeepSeek是唯一一个可以不计成本、不看脸色、只为AGI梦想狂奔的“自由人”。幻方量化(去年回报率53%)超级“印钞机”兜底之下,DeepSeek是唯一的“零融资”异类。在即将到来的1月27日——也就是“DeepSeek时刻”一周年之际,全球AI社区都期待DeepSeek再来个大招。市场喧嚣期待之时,知名科技评论作者Kevin Xu发布长文对DeepSeek的商业模式、护城河进行了分析,在AI圈内引起了很大反响。他认为,DeepSeek最坚固的护城河,是它零外部融资、无商业化压力的独特模式。在全球AI巨头都被资本裹挟着必须赚钱的时候,DeepSeek是唯一一个可以不计成本、不看脸色、只为AGI梦想狂奔的“自由人”。Kevin S. Xu(徐凯文)是专注中美科技与资本交叉领域的独立观察者,知名科技评论人。他创办的ChinaTalk播客及Newsletter在专业圈层颇具影响力,擅长从资本流向、组织行为与地缘政治多维度解构技术演进逻辑。我们给大家梳理了一下文章要点:给市场预期泼盆冷水:虽然大家都在等DeepSeek的新模型,但作者直言“不要指望它能像去年那样再次震惊世界”。因为现在的市场已经被“开源模型”喂饱了,DeepSeek虽然打响了第一枪,但现在并不是唯一、也不是最开源的玩家了(比如它至今没开源数据集)。唯一的“零融资”异类:现在的AI圈就是“销金窟”,连马斯克都没扛住,最近也给xAI融了一笔高达200亿美元的巨资。但DeepSeek的老板梁文锋至今坚持“零外部融资”,这在所有顶尖实验室里是独一份的,他把控制权看得比钱重。超级“印钞机”兜底:梁文锋能这么硬气,是因为他背后的量化基金“幻方量化”太赚钱了。去年,幻方以53%的回报率赚了超7亿美元(约50亿人民币)的利润。梁文锋直接把这些钱拿来买显卡、招人,这种用“老钱”养“新梦”的模式,让他完全不需要看投资人的脸色。被VC拒绝反而是福报:2023年DeepSeek刚成立时其实找过融资,但当时国内VC普遍短视、不敢投,结果这反而成了“塞翁失马”。作者认为,一旦拿了VC的钱,就必须背上商业化KPI,动作就会变形,而现在的DeepSeek只需要对技术负责,不需要对财报负责。“钱多”麻烦多:这是一个非常深刻的洞察——钱太多会滋生“大公司病”。作者举了个很讽刺的例子:有些富得流油的实验室(比如Thinking Machines),甚至在办公室健身房里用上了印着自家Logo的定制杠铃片。这种浮夸的排场背后,是员工盯着期权带来的“纸面富贵”,部门之间为了争夺算力资源搞“宫斗”。而DeepSeek因为没有外部估值,团队极度扁平,没有资源内耗。算力不是万能药:文章引用了前OpenAI大神Ilya Sutskever的观点——真正的颠覆性创新往往不需要无限堆算力。Transformer架构当年只用了8到64张卡就跑出来了。钱太多反而会让团队变懒,以为堆算力就能解决一切,从而失去了“科研品味”。投资人的终极悖论:最后,作者站在一位投资人的角度发出了一声叹息——作为一个投资人,他做梦都想投DeepSeek;但他心里也清楚,一旦DeepSeek接受了外部投资,那种纯粹的特质就会消失了。作者原文如下(由AI翻译):没有商业模式:DeepSeek的长期优势作者:Kevin S. Xu随着1月27日“DeepSeek时刻(DeepSeek Moment)”一周年纪念日的临近,市场对于DeepSeek在农历新年(2月17日)前发布一款更强大新模型的期待正日益高涨。然而,过高的期望几乎注定会带来失望。虽然我也急切地等待着这款新模型,想看看DeepSeek究竟在忙些什么,但我并不预期它会像一年前那样再次震惊市场。整个AI行业乃至更广泛的市场,已经习惯了每隔一两个月就有一款新的“开放权重”模型发布,尤其是来自中国实验室的模型,它们即便算不上最尖端,也往往表现扎实。凭借着开放和免费的特性,这些模型正以一种无法追踪和溯源的方式在各地获得牵引力——这也是开源技术整体上的一种美德(或者说是缺陷)。正如英伟达CEO黄仁勋喜欢说的那样,以Token生成量计算,世界上最大的AI仍然是OpenAI,但第二大的,是开源AI。DeepSeek或许在去年通过发布V3和R1打响了MIT License许可的开源模型的第一枪,但其他实验室迅速跟进,从同样来自中国的竞争对手阿里巴巴及其Qwen(通义千问)模型系列,到OpenAI推出的gpt-oss模型。(两者均使用Apache 2.0许可,这是另一种常见的开源宽松许可。)正如我之前指出的,如果不是因为DeepSeek,OpenAI可能永远不会感受到压力,从而去兑现其开源根源的承诺,哪怕只是口头上的,比如发布gpt-oss。虽然DeepSeek继续开源其模型的权重以及各种工具和库,但它已不再是市场上最开放的实验室,因为它从未开放过其用于训练模型的数据集或主代码库。根据Artificial Analysis的数据,目前全球开放程度排名前三的模型分别来自NVIDIA(Nemotron 3)、Allen Institute(Olmo 3)和穆罕默德·本·扎耶德人工智能大学(MBZUAI,K2-V2)。因此,DeepSeek的模型不再是开放模型中能力最强的,不再是最便宜的,甚至也不再是最开放的。那么,是否还有一个充分的理由,让我们继续给予这个曾经震惊世界的实验室超乎寻常的关注?是的,我认为有。但不是因为它的模型或技术进步,而是因为其内部的激励机制和商业模式。更确切地说,我们应该关注DeepSeek,因为它没有商业模式——在中国、美国及其他地区的所有前沿实验室中,这是一个独特且反直觉的特性,而非缺陷。1. 自筹资金支撑的 AGI 梦想早在DeepSeek迎来其“高光时刻”并成为家喻户晓的名字之前的几周,我首次撰写关于DeepSeek的文章时(当时也在ChinaTalk播客上讨论过),就提到了这种“无商业模式优势”。值得注意的是,当整个AI世界都被资本淹没时,这种优势竟表现得如此顽固且持久。梁文锋没有筹集任何外部资金。该实验室确实通过其API服务产生一些收入,但仍在不断降低定价。梁文锋满足于用他的量化基金——幻方量化的收益来资助DeepSeek的研发,正是幻方量化最初孵化了DeepSeek。需要明确的是,梁文锋在2023年ChatGPT推出几个月后想要创办DeepSeek时,确实曾尝试从中国投资者那里筹集风险投资。但他那“笃信AGI(AGI-pilled)”的理想主义,加上缺乏商业计划书,以及中国VC著名的短视和风险厌恶,导致了那次融资努力的失败——但这反而塞翁失马,焉知非福。随着2025年的飞逝,为了不错过更多潜在的进步,越来越多的资金涌入,资助了更多的AI进展。每一个哪怕只有一点点牵引力的实验室都筹集了更多的钱,随之而来的是对未来商业化的更多期望。一批所谓的“AI新实验室”——由明星研究员领导的、风投支持的纯研究实验室——如雨后春笋般涌现,例如Thinking Machines Lab(Mira Murati)、SSI(Ilya Sutskever)和AMI Labs(Yann LeCun)。甚至连我过去常拿来与DeepSeek做最紧密类比的xAI——因为它们同样缺乏商业化的紧迫性——也屈服于外部资本的诱惑。几天前,埃隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)的实验室完成了一轮200亿美元的E轮融资,资金结构包含了股权和债权。即便是世界上最富有的人之一,也无法对更多的钱说“不”!与此同时,梁文锋继续自筹资金维持他那神秘的店铺和他的AGI梦想。当然,梁文锋的量化基金去年业绩辉煌,以53%的回报率创造了超过7亿美元的利润,这无疑提供了巨大帮助。据推测,这些利润的大部分都投入到了购买更多GPU(尽管面临美国的出口管制,但尽其所能)和招聘人才上,以继续推动DeepSeek的研究路线图。尽管如此,在DeepSeek获得全球知名度并在AI行业实现100%的品牌认知度之后,筹集一二十亿美元以加速其步伐本应是轻而易举的事。无论你爱它还是恨它,每个人都听说过它。然而,对外部资金说“不”,让你能够掌控自己的命运。如果你的自定命运是“致力于让AGI成为现实……用好奇心解开AGI之谜……用长期主义回答本质问题”——这是DeepSeek在HuggingFace页面上的标语——那么用较少的资金换取完全的控制权是一个值得的权衡。当然,你也可以通过一些“公司治理创新”来达到目的。Thinking Machines Lab就是这种情况,创始人的1票投票权价值比所有其他董事会成员的票数总和还多1票,从而实际上拥有完全控制权。但无论你在董事会层面如何“创新”,一旦你接受了风险投资,为了产生风投规模的回报而进行的大规模商业化,迟早是会被期待的。DeepSeek没有任何这些预期。因此,它没有商业模式,也不需要商业模式。通往AGI的道路需要算力、人才,以及相当剂量的良好研究品味。没人规定它必须需要一个商业模式。2. 钱多麻烦多,没钱没烦恼当然,筹集更多资金最常见的理由是为了购买更多的算力来支持研究。然而,并不显见的是,要产出好的研究成果,更多的算力总是必要的。这一洞察并非DeepSeek那独特的自筹资金架构所独有。Ilya Sutskever,这位可以说是拥有最佳研究品味的AI研究员,也表示同意。他在Dwarkesh播客中用自己的话说道:“算力规模已经足够大,以至于并不显见你需要那么多额外的算力来证明某个想法。我给你打个比方。AlexNet是建立在两块GPU上的。那是用于它的总算力。Transformer是建立在8到64块GPU上的。2017年没有哪篇Transformer论文的实验使用了超过64块GPU,这相当于什么,今天的两块GPU?ResNet也是如此,对吧?你可以争辩说,o1推理模型(o1 reasoning)并不是世界上最耗算力的东西。因此,对于研究来说,你绝对需要一定量的算力,但远非显而易见的是,你需要绝对最大量的算力来进行研究。”另一方面,通过消除外部资金的附带条件,以及“仅仅因为有钱就必须购买更多算力”的必要性,两种组织层面的优势显现出来。而DeepSeek两者兼备。首先,即使资源更加有限,内部也不存在资源竞争。 这里没有官僚主义、内斗、权力斗争,也没有为了决定GPU是应该支持新产品发布、扩展现有流行服务的推理需求,还是分配给一个新的研究想法而进行的利益交换。在一个没有外部资金、没有商业模式的小型实验室里,良好的研究品味和新想法可以得到最大程度的支持和拥抱,即使绝对层面上的总算力是有限的。其次,基于薪酬、津贴或团队获得的算力多少而产生的嫉妒和等级秩序更少,而这些往往是有毒的,却根植于人性之中。 你的组织瞬间变得扁平,并且可以保持扁平。伴随外部资金而来的不仅是商业模式的期望,还有估值、股票期权,以及一个高估值AI实验室所有的浮华装饰,无论这种估值在早期是多么没有意义。来自梦幻估值的纸面财富往往会让位于膨胀的自我价值感、嫉妒,以及被资金更雄厚的竞争对手挖角。这些浮华装饰不仅仅关乎个人财富创造,还与实验室的品牌、声望和吸引更多人才的魅力捆绑在一起。而这些装饰可能会变得相当荒谬,比如该实验室办公室健身房里那些印有“Thinking Machines”品牌的杠铃片:DeepSeek有自己的健身房吗?我不知道。可能有。但我很确定它没有印着品牌的杠铃片。Ilya Sutskever是否希望他能像梁文锋一样自筹资金来运营SSI(迄今已筹集30亿美元)?可能吧。他可能拥有最好的直觉和研究品味,但他无法阻止挖角者——甚至他的联合创始人CEO也被Meta财力更雄厚的扎克伯格挖走了。这并不是说DeepSeek对挖角免疫。其明星研究员之一罗福莉,现在正领导着财力更雄厚的雷军旗下小米的AI工作。在一个被金钱淹没的行业,以及金钱总是带来的阴谋和戏剧性中,DeepSeek因零外部资金而导致的商业模式缺失,是其唯一持久优势的源泉:为服务于AGI研究而实现的内部最大化对齐,别无其他。我甚至不确定我是否相信AGI。但作为一名投资者和资本家,我很乐意进入DeepSeek的股东名册。话虽如此,如果DeepSeek曾经让我或任何外部投资者进入,那么让DeepSeek之所以成为DeepSeek的特质,将彻底毁掉,不复存在。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":894,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3454593056597338","authorId":"3454593056597338","name":"walking_0712","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5633b81d050de33b7eb52319df99490","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3454593056597338","idStr":"3454593056597338"},"content":"有个鸟gj,有gj还会开源?","text":"有个鸟gj,有gj还会开源?","html":"有个鸟gj,有gj还会开源?"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":430726363947712,"gmtCreate":1746179472919,"gmtModify":1746179476907,"author":{"id":"4192144422425150","authorId":"4192144422425150","name":"影枫16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7462462b6aabd8817da696a8c63632f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4192144422425150","idStr":"4192144422425150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍😂","listText":"👍😂","text":"👍😂","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a789215c69007415b6a12d2d2ae27f56"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/430726363947712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":409513575264512,"gmtCreate":1740988626273,"gmtModify":1740988628245,"author":{"id":"4192144422425150","authorId":"4192144422425150","name":"影枫16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7462462b6aabd8817da696a8c63632f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4192144422425150","idStr":"4192144422425150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"学习了,赞👍[开心]","listText":"学习了,赞👍[开心]","text":"学习了,赞👍[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/409513575264512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":474713238372576,"gmtCreate":1756866716657,"gmtModify":1756866718682,"author":{"id":"4192144422425150","authorId":"4192144422425150","name":"影枫16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7462462b6aabd8817da696a8c63632f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4192144422425150","idStr":"4192144422425150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"1,求回调,好多好股没上车,2,希望降温,有个健康的市场,健康市场,才稳定才长久。[微笑]","listText":"1,求回调,好多好股没上车,2,希望降温,有个健康的市场,健康市场,才稳定才长久。[微笑]","text":"1,求回调,好多好股没上车,2,希望降温,有个健康的市场,健康市场,才稳定才长久。[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/474713238372576","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1062,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":425983797109384,"gmtCreate":1745023767216,"gmtModify":1745023769257,"author":{"id":"4192144422425150","authorId":"4192144422425150","name":"影枫16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7462462b6aabd8817da696a8c63632f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4192144422425150","idStr":"4192144422425150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"希望如此,但,1)担心,权力的膨胀,让国王迷失,2)担心,美国制衡体制的崩溃,千里之堤溃于蚁穴。[难过]","listText":"希望如此,但,1)担心,权力的膨胀,让国王迷失,2)担心,美国制衡体制的崩溃,千里之堤溃于蚁穴。[难过]","text":"希望如此,但,1)担心,权力的膨胀,让国王迷失,2)担心,美国制衡体制的崩溃,千里之堤溃于蚁穴。[难过]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/425983797109384","repostId":"423208225959944","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":423208225959944,"gmtCreate":1744358299327,"gmtModify":1744962263375,"author":{"id":"4193377325563260","authorId":"4193377325563260","name":"人生舵手__小琳","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b52249a7a6bb3ccf0a38ce77c8fb416d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4193377325563260","idStr":"4193377325563260"},"themes":[],"title":"是什么让对面开始稍有那么些认怂呢?","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 首先,一开始的出牌策略,特朗普自己就已经算是提前预告了: 特朗普在他1987年出版的《交易的艺术》中谈到做生意的四个阶段:一是提出惊人的目标。二是大肆宣传造势。三是决策反复摇摆。四是获得直观的结果。 但由于咱们有一定的底气和提前准备,你把战术本在早几十年都写出来了,那我自有应对办法,刘亦菲不给你打电话正常的,所以,这么一下来着手看着有点虎头蛇尾了;就算特朗普再怎么疯狂,也不可能想要全球衰退的风险,1930年美国关税法案即《斯姆特-霍利关税法》,该法案签署成为法律后,美股持续下跌。要知道,早在百年前,就有深刻教训: 在1930年美国关税法案通过后的一年内,道琼斯指数下跌了40%。从长期来看,在胡佛任期内,道琼斯工业平均指数从1929年9月的约381的高点,跌至1932年夏天的约41点,跌去了接近90%。并目,直到1954年11月道琼斯工业平均指数才回到崩盘前的高点。 这一时期美股下跌主要是因为该法案引发了全球贸易战,美国的进口额和出口额都骤降50%以上,贸易萎缩加剧了通缩,企业盈利下滑,大量企业破产,道琼斯指数成分股中40%企业破产,投资者信心受挫,导致股市持续低迷。 而这,显然不是美国想要看到的。 既然情绪上最差的阶段过去了,那美股可能会怎么走? 一些刻舟求剑的数据,一个是:重复2018第一轮?","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 首先,一开始的出牌策略,特朗普自己就已经算是提前预告了: 特朗普在他1987年出版的《交易的艺术》中谈到做生意的四个阶段:一是提出惊人的目标。二是大肆宣传造势。三是决策反复摇摆。四是获得直观的结果。 但由于咱们有一定的底气和提前准备,你把战术本在早几十年都写出来了,那我自有应对办法,刘亦菲不给你打电话正常的,所以,这么一下来着手看着有点虎头蛇尾了;就算特朗普再怎么疯狂,也不可能想要全球衰退的风险,1930年美国关税法案即《斯姆特-霍利关税法》,该法案签署成为法律后,美股持续下跌。要知道,早在百年前,就有深刻教训: 在1930年美国关税法案通过后的一年内,道琼斯指数下跌了40%。从长期来看,在胡佛任期内,道琼斯工业平均指数从1929年9月的约381的高点,跌至1932年夏天的约41点,跌去了接近90%。并目,直到1954年11月道琼斯工业平均指数才回到崩盘前的高点。 这一时期美股下跌主要是因为该法案引发了全球贸易战,美国的进口额和出口额都骤降50%以上,贸易萎缩加剧了通缩,企业盈利下滑,大量企业破产,道琼斯指数成分股中40%企业破产,投资者信心受挫,导致股市持续低迷。 而这,显然不是美国想要看到的。 既然情绪上最差的阶段过去了,那美股可能会怎么走? 一些刻舟求剑的数据,一个是:重复2018第一轮?","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ 首先,一开始的出牌策略,特朗普自己就已经算是提前预告了: 特朗普在他1987年出版的《交易的艺术》中谈到做生意的四个阶段:一是提出惊人的目标。二是大肆宣传造势。三是决策反复摇摆。四是获得直观的结果。 但由于咱们有一定的底气和提前准备,你把战术本在早几十年都写出来了,那我自有应对办法,刘亦菲不给你打电话正常的,所以,这么一下来着手看着有点虎头蛇尾了;就算特朗普再怎么疯狂,也不可能想要全球衰退的风险,1930年美国关税法案即《斯姆特-霍利关税法》,该法案签署成为法律后,美股持续下跌。要知道,早在百年前,就有深刻教训: 在1930年美国关税法案通过后的一年内,道琼斯指数下跌了40%。从长期来看,在胡佛任期内,道琼斯工业平均指数从1929年9月的约381的高点,跌至1932年夏天的约41点,跌去了接近90%。并目,直到1954年11月道琼斯工业平均指数才回到崩盘前的高点。 这一时期美股下跌主要是因为该法案引发了全球贸易战,美国的进口额和出口额都骤降50%以上,贸易萎缩加剧了通缩,企业盈利下滑,大量企业破产,道琼斯指数成分股中40%企业破产,投资者信心受挫,导致股市持续低迷。 而这,显然不是美国想要看到的。 既然情绪上最差的阶段过去了,那美股可能会怎么走? 一些刻舟求剑的数据,一个是:重复2018第一轮?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180b4ccfd829e2ebe945f0882fb10453","width":"1161","height":"709"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/423208225959944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2091,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":407778933563896,"gmtCreate":1740570092345,"gmtModify":1740570136177,"author":{"id":"4192144422425150","authorId":"4192144422425150","name":"影枫16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7462462b6aabd8817da696a8c63632f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4192144422425150","idStr":"4192144422425150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有进步……","listText":"有进步……","text":"有进步……","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f32b142517f1ddba51646e55f605a9c2","width":"750","height":"984"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/407778933563896","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":453353053803344,"gmtCreate":1751704122382,"gmtModify":1751704124401,"author":{"id":"4192144422425150","authorId":"4192144422425150","name":"影枫16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7462462b6aabd8817da696a8c63632f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4192144422425150","idStr":"4192144422425150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"加油,马斯克,结束前,干票大的,波澜壮阔的人生……虽死无憾……羡慕","listText":"加油,马斯克,结束前,干票大的,波澜壮阔的人生……虽死无憾……羡慕","text":"加油,马斯克,结束前,干票大的,波澜壮阔的人生……虽死无憾……羡慕","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/453353053803344","repostId":"2549122083","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397852663992432,"gmtCreate":1738154309690,"gmtModify":1738154607027,"author":{"id":"4192144422425150","authorId":"4192144422425150","name":"影枫16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7462462b6aabd8817da696a8c63632f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4192144422425150","idStr":"4192144422425150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"发财,发财,大家一起发财! <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4093596070918460\"> @闲人马斯克 </a>","listText":"发财,发财,大家一起发财! <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/4093596070918460\"> @闲人马斯克 </a>","text":"发财,发财,大家一起发财! @闲人马斯克","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3ea4299eaf312c1655e3b849b58b302"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397852663992432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4093596070918460","authorId":"4093596070918460","name":"闲人马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8de4bb6ae7ead34f761208585a438824","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4093596070918460","idStr":"4093596070918460"},"content":"兄弟们一起发财[开心]","text":"兄弟们一起发财[开心]","html":"兄弟们一起发财[开心]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":487971525296248,"gmtCreate":1760161160820,"gmtModify":1760161163269,"author":{"id":"4192144422425150","authorId":"4192144422425150","name":"影枫16","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7462462b6aabd8817da696a8c63632f","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4192144422425150","idStr":"4192144422425150"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"再次脱锚,再一次,没有信誉资产支撑的空中楼阁,灾难……不杠杆,随时做好归零准备……","listText":"再次脱锚,再一次,没有信誉资产支撑的空中楼阁,灾难……不杠杆,随时做好归零准备……","text":"再次脱锚,再一次,没有信誉资产支撑的空中楼阁,灾难……不杠杆,随时做好归零准备……","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/487971525296248","repostId":"1140284047","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1140284047","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1760151718,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140284047?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-11 11:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"币圈史上最大爆仓日,10·11暴跌启示录","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140284047","media":"深潮TechFlow","summary":"继 312、519 之后,币圈又多了一个暴跌纪念日——10 月 11 日。但在 10 月 11 日,当关税冲击引发抛售时,USDe 出现明显脱锚,短时间内一度跌破 0.66 美元,成为这场暴跌的标志性事件。总体来看,10·11 暴跌并不是单一原因,而是三股力量的合谋:宏观黑天鹅的政策冲击,杠杆繁荣下的结构脆弱,以及做市商流动性保护的崩溃。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>继 312、519 之后,币圈又多了一个暴跌纪念日——10 月 11 日。</p><p>比特币一度跌破 11 万美元,USDE 脱锚,山寨币更是出现断崖式下跌,不少项目价格在短暂几分钟内直接归零,没错是真的归零。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3c785e7ea7c94dd468e3499aba674a6\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"1700\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07123b1ba7d305a848e19fbb82a100dc\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1808\"/></p><p>Coinglass 数据显示,截至 11 日 9 时,24 小时爆仓额达到 192 亿美元,爆仓人数达 164 万人,最大单笔爆仓单超 2 亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而,这数据或许只是冰山一角,据相关从业者透露,真实爆仓数据远超公开,<strong>“Binance 爆仓数据应该远超 Hyperliquid 和 Bybit”</strong>,根据 Coinglass 数据披露,目前 Binnace 爆仓数据仅为 Hyperliquid 的 5 分之一。</p><p>加密数据分析师 MLM(@mlmabc)认为市场真实爆仓数据在 300-400 亿美元左右。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aac031460dbe4fe8441a1f5aff16ac8a\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"793\"/></p><p>过去,我们曾自我安慰,市场今非昔比,变得更加完善,不会再出现 312 这般动荡行情,然而再一次被现实无情打脸。</p><p>表面看,这是一次突如其来的黑天鹅冲击,但真正让市场崩塌的,或是长期积累的杠杆繁荣和做市商体系的结构性缺陷。</p><p>这场暴跌的导火索是特朗普。</p><p>当天,他突然宣布对中国商品加征新一轮关税。中美贸易摩擦骤然升级,全球风险资产瞬间承压。避险情绪急剧升温,资本纷纷逃向美元和美债,而加密货币作为风险资产的代表,首当其冲地成为被抛售的标的。</p><p>这成为压垮市场的第一根稻草。</p><p>然而,仅靠一纸关税,无法解释为何整个加密市场瞬间出现雪崩,真正的关键在于市场的虚假繁荣早已建立在高杠杆之上。</p><p>过去数月,比特币与主流资产屡创新高,但这背后大部分资金并非长期资本,而是通过合约、借贷和流动性挖矿堆叠出来的杠杆资金。当利空来袭,首先被击中的就是这些高杠杆多头仓位。支撑位一旦被跌穿,强平接连触发,抛盘越滚越大,市场陷入“多杀多”的链式爆仓。</p><p>最典型的案例或许是 USDE,自从官方推出 12% 补贴政策后,引发大量用户参与循环贷进行套利。这种机制在牛市中极具诱惑,短时间内吸引了大量资金进入,也成为推动市场繁荣的重要引擎。但在 10 月 11 日,当关税冲击引发抛售时,USDe 出现明显脱锚,短时间内一度跌破 0.66 美元,成为这场暴跌的标志性事件。</p><p>更致命的,是做市商机制在这场暴跌中彻底失灵。</p><p>Greeks.live 工作人员大老师 Bugsbunny 分析认为,目前主动做市商的资金有限,他们会把主要的流动性资源集中在 Tier0、Tier1 项目上,比如 BTC、ETH,而对于中长尾的山寨币,只是“顺带”提供一点支撑。</p><p>在 Jump 崩塌之后,市场的流动性供应更多依赖于这些主动 MM,但他们缺乏完善的尾部风险对冲机制,只能覆盖日常行情,而在极端行情下,资金根本不够托底。</p><p>当特朗普的关税消息引爆市场恐慌时,做市商不得不优先保证大项目的安全,把原本分配给小币种的资金抽走。结果,山寨币市场彻底失去了对手盘,卖压砸下来无人承接,价格出现近乎“自由落体”的暴跌。IOTX 等代币一度跌近归零,正是流动性枯竭的最直观体现。</p><p>事实上,随着今年以来新项目大量涌现,主动 MM 的资金早已超负荷,市场缺乏足够的衍生品去对冲尾部风险,这一次不过是彻底揭开了遮羞布。</p><p>此外,Bugsbunny 认为更致命的是,这次暴跌发生于周五晚上(亚盘的周六凌晨),无论是欧美还是亚洲,做市商都有明确的工作时段。如果这次发生在工作日的盘中,可能流动性早就被修复。</p><p>“但偏偏今天是周五,一切都太巧了。”</p><p>是危险,也是机遇,有人欢喜有人愁。</p><p>10 月 10 日,特朗普发布声明前,某比特币早期投资者持续在 Hyperliquid 增加对 BTC 和 ETH 的做空仓位,总仓位超 11 亿美元,大跌之后,赚得盆满钵满。也有人火中取栗,利用 USDE、BNSOL 和 WBETH 脱锚套利……</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">总体来看,10·11 暴跌并不是单一原因,而是三股力量的合谋:<strong>宏观黑天鹅的政策冲击,杠杆繁荣下的结构脆弱,以及做市商流动性保护的崩溃。</strong></p><p>早上看来,看着朋友圈的哀鸿遍野,倍感市场的残酷与无情。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">加密市场从来不是一条平坦的高速路,它更像是布满暗礁的海域。牛市的繁荣往往裹挟着杠杆的幻象,而黑天鹅则永远潜伏在角落里,随时可能扑面而来。<strong>对散户而言来说,最重要的不是时刻追逐暴利,而是活下去。</strong></p><p>只要能活下去,就有机会在下一轮周期中站上新的起点,一旦在极端行情中被全仓清算,可能再无机会回到牌桌。</p><p>再重复一遍,活下去才是一切。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1592805329705","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>币圈史上最大爆仓日,10·11暴跌启示录</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n币圈史上最大爆仓日,10·11暴跌启示录\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-11 11:01 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nsRtIw7izgEIsFF2MFfPng><strong>深潮TechFlow</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>继 312、519 之后,币圈又多了一个暴跌纪念日——10 月 11 日。比特币一度跌破 11 万美元,USDE 脱锚,山寨币更是出现断崖式下跌,不少项目价格在短暂几分钟内直接归零,没错是真的归零。Coinglass 数据显示,截至 11 日 9 时,24 小时爆仓额达到 192 亿美元,爆仓人数达 164 万人,最大单笔爆仓单超 2 亿美元。然而,这数据或许只是冰山一角,据相关从业者透露,真实...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nsRtIw7izgEIsFF2MFfPng\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/962be253ee7459c393769e9105cb1429","relate_stocks":{"BLSH":"Bullish","UPXI":"Upexi, Inc.","RIOT":"Riot Platforms","CRCL":"Circle Internet Corp.","MARA":"MARA Holdings","HOOD":"Robinhood","BMNR":"BitMine Immersion Technologies Inc.","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc.","BTBT":"Bit Digital, Inc.","SBET":"SharpLink Gaming","MSTR":"Strategy","CLSK":"CleanSpark, Inc."},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/nsRtIw7izgEIsFF2MFfPng","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140284047","content_text":"继 312、519 之后,币圈又多了一个暴跌纪念日——10 月 11 日。比特币一度跌破 11 万美元,USDE 脱锚,山寨币更是出现断崖式下跌,不少项目价格在短暂几分钟内直接归零,没错是真的归零。Coinglass 数据显示,截至 11 日 9 时,24 小时爆仓额达到 192 亿美元,爆仓人数达 164 万人,最大单笔爆仓单超 2 亿美元。然而,这数据或许只是冰山一角,据相关从业者透露,真实爆仓数据远超公开,“Binance 爆仓数据应该远超 Hyperliquid 和 Bybit”,根据 Coinglass 数据披露,目前 Binnace 爆仓数据仅为 Hyperliquid 的 5 分之一。加密数据分析师 MLM(@mlmabc)认为市场真实爆仓数据在 300-400 亿美元左右。过去,我们曾自我安慰,市场今非昔比,变得更加完善,不会再出现 312 这般动荡行情,然而再一次被现实无情打脸。表面看,这是一次突如其来的黑天鹅冲击,但真正让市场崩塌的,或是长期积累的杠杆繁荣和做市商体系的结构性缺陷。这场暴跌的导火索是特朗普。当天,他突然宣布对中国商品加征新一轮关税。中美贸易摩擦骤然升级,全球风险资产瞬间承压。避险情绪急剧升温,资本纷纷逃向美元和美债,而加密货币作为风险资产的代表,首当其冲地成为被抛售的标的。这成为压垮市场的第一根稻草。然而,仅靠一纸关税,无法解释为何整个加密市场瞬间出现雪崩,真正的关键在于市场的虚假繁荣早已建立在高杠杆之上。过去数月,比特币与主流资产屡创新高,但这背后大部分资金并非长期资本,而是通过合约、借贷和流动性挖矿堆叠出来的杠杆资金。当利空来袭,首先被击中的就是这些高杠杆多头仓位。支撑位一旦被跌穿,强平接连触发,抛盘越滚越大,市场陷入“多杀多”的链式爆仓。最典型的案例或许是 USDE,自从官方推出 12% 补贴政策后,引发大量用户参与循环贷进行套利。这种机制在牛市中极具诱惑,短时间内吸引了大量资金进入,也成为推动市场繁荣的重要引擎。但在 10 月 11 日,当关税冲击引发抛售时,USDe 出现明显脱锚,短时间内一度跌破 0.66 美元,成为这场暴跌的标志性事件。更致命的,是做市商机制在这场暴跌中彻底失灵。Greeks.live 工作人员大老师 Bugsbunny 分析认为,目前主动做市商的资金有限,他们会把主要的流动性资源集中在 Tier0、Tier1 项目上,比如 BTC、ETH,而对于中长尾的山寨币,只是“顺带”提供一点支撑。在 Jump 崩塌之后,市场的流动性供应更多依赖于这些主动 MM,但他们缺乏完善的尾部风险对冲机制,只能覆盖日常行情,而在极端行情下,资金根本不够托底。当特朗普的关税消息引爆市场恐慌时,做市商不得不优先保证大项目的安全,把原本分配给小币种的资金抽走。结果,山寨币市场彻底失去了对手盘,卖压砸下来无人承接,价格出现近乎“自由落体”的暴跌。IOTX 等代币一度跌近归零,正是流动性枯竭的最直观体现。事实上,随着今年以来新项目大量涌现,主动 MM 的资金早已超负荷,市场缺乏足够的衍生品去对冲尾部风险,这一次不过是彻底揭开了遮羞布。此外,Bugsbunny 认为更致命的是,这次暴跌发生于周五晚上(亚盘的周六凌晨),无论是欧美还是亚洲,做市商都有明确的工作时段。如果这次发生在工作日的盘中,可能流动性早就被修复。“但偏偏今天是周五,一切都太巧了。”是危险,也是机遇,有人欢喜有人愁。10 月 10 日,特朗普发布声明前,某比特币早期投资者持续在 Hyperliquid 增加对 BTC 和 ETH 的做空仓位,总仓位超 11 亿美元,大跌之后,赚得盆满钵满。也有人火中取栗,利用 USDE、BNSOL 和 WBETH 脱锚套利……总体来看,10·11 暴跌并不是单一原因,而是三股力量的合谋:宏观黑天鹅的政策冲击,杠杆繁荣下的结构脆弱,以及做市商流动性保护的崩溃。早上看来,看着朋友圈的哀鸿遍野,倍感市场的残酷与无情。加密市场从来不是一条平坦的高速路,它更像是布满暗礁的海域。牛市的繁荣往往裹挟着杠杆的幻象,而黑天鹅则永远潜伏在角落里,随时可能扑面而来。对散户而言来说,最重要的不是时刻追逐暴利,而是活下去。只要能活下去,就有机会在下一轮周期中站上新的起点,一旦在极端行情中被全仓清算,可能再无机会回到牌桌。再重复一遍,活下去才是一切。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BLSH":1.1,"MSTR":1.1,"CRCL":1.1,"CLSK":1.1,"BMNR":1.1,"MARA":1.1,"BTBT":1.1,"UPXI":1.1,"COIN":1.1,"SBET":1.1,"RIOT":1.1,"HOOD":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1767,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}