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peter ma

peter ma

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05:53

$Dutch Bros Inc.(BROS)$

08-18

这次降息是因为美国经济衰退？国债利率会下行吗？

08-16

好气吗？

06-04

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 总算止跌？中概距离高点差距很大

06-03

等待特朗普讲话，就是等待出手机会，美股进入特不靠谱阶段

05-20

新闻一出，又到出货时间

重新看好芯片？木头姐大举加仓“台积电”，规模创近一年之最

05-10

苹果开发AI搜索功能消息一出，谷歌大跌超7%，这对谷歌来说是一种潜在的重大威胁，原因主要有以下几点： 1. 削弱谷歌在移动搜索的垄断地位目前苹果每年从谷歌获得数十亿美元的搜索引擎默认合作费（据估可能在150-200亿美元之间）。如果苹果推出自家AI搜索功能，并在Safari或Siri中默认使用，将直接威胁谷歌在iOS设备上的搜索流量来源。 2. 改变用户行为习惯 AI搜索更偏向于直接回答用户问题，而非列出网页链接，这种“答案引擎”模式更贴近苹果一贯追求的用户体验。如果用户开始习惯在Siri、Spotlight甚至Safari中使用苹果AI搜索，谷歌的搜索市场份额将被侵蚀。 3. 生态整合带来的竞争优势苹果有自己的硬件、操作系统和生态系统，一旦将AI搜索与iOS、macOS、iCloud等产品深度整合，可形成闭环体验，这对用户极具吸引力，也会让谷歌的产品更难渗透。 4. 可能引发监管审查加剧苹果若停止默认使用谷歌搜索，谷歌在欧美等地区可能失去“天然垄断”的优势，从而导致监管机构对其市场地位和竞争策略进一步审查，加剧其反垄断压力。 5. 对搜索广告市场的冲击谷歌搜索是其广告收入的主要来源。如果苹果用AI搜索削弱谷歌流量，将直接影响谷歌的广告营收模型。而苹果一旦建立起自己的搜索广告平台，将更进一步抢占谷歌的蛋糕。总的来说，苹果开发AI搜索功能不仅是技术创新，更是对谷歌在搜索市场主导地位的战略挑战。如果苹果能提供媲美甚至优于谷歌体验的AI搜索，那么谷歌将面临用户流失、收入下降和竞争压力上升的多重挑战。谷歌当然不是毫无办法，它依然有非常强的底牌和反制手段。虽然苹果开发AI搜索是威胁，但谷歌可以从以下几个方面应对： 1. 强化AI搜索体验（Gemini）谷歌已经在大力投入其AI搜索产品，尤其是将Gemini整合到搜索引擎中（Search Generative Experi

05-06

$美国长期国债 6.875% 2025/08/15(US912810EV62.BOND)$ 这个年化咋这么高？

04-24

资本卷，精英卷，底层观战并从中获得实惠，乐见劳动力体现价值，善待勤劳者！

04-22

会发生： 1、美国历史上第一个罢免美联储主席的总统，和第一个被罢免的主席。之前的总统个别对美联储有的意见，但从未实现罢免； 2、美国金融市场地震，短期美债美股上蹿下跳，全球去美元化加快； 3、即使罢免，下一任也不会顺从川普指令，毕竟几百年的传统已经形成。老美的制度就是为了制衡像川普这样的搅屎棍的。一个人改变不了国家基因！

04-19

复活节彩蛋大作战

04-19

复活节彩蛋

04-19

复活节彩蛋

04-19

复活节彩蛋

04-16

$阿斯麦(ASML)$ 川普搅动各行业不确定性，对世界经济短期造成影响日趋明显。

04-16

争取收盘52.1

04-15

赶上中国消费周期，又会出现不少竞争力强大的牛股，抓住机遇，一飞冲天

04-15

最近中概整体表现优异，背后是稳定的业绩支撑！

04-15

中国茶饮类产品正在走向全球，期待好表现！

04-15

美国这几百年就出这一个奇葩，忍忍就过去了

“豁免”无效，关税“横跳”，苹果和英伟达悬着的心，怎么落下来？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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15:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"重新看好芯片？木头姐大举加仓“台积电”，规模创近一年之最","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2536660918","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“木头姐”旗下基金周一买入近20万份台积电ADR，购买规模创下去年6月18日以来最大，这也是自去年三季度以来，“木头姐”从主要卖出台积电转为显著买入的最明显信号。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>“木头姐”旗下基金周一买入近20万份台积电ADR，购买规模创下去年6月18日以来最大，这也是自去年三季度以来，“木头姐”从主要卖出台积电转为显著买入的最明显信号。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">态度大反转！“木头姐”大举买入台积电。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">5月20日，据报道，“木头姐”Cathie Wood近一年来首次大规模买入台积电。<strong>这是自去年三季度以来，“木头姐”从主要卖出台积电转为显著买入的最明显信号。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据显示，“木头姐”旗下的旗舰基金Ark Innovation ETF周一（5月19日）购买了123,587份台积电美国存托凭证(ADR)，同时Ark Next Generation Internet ETF买入了74,189份ADR。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报道指出，虽然Ark的基金在今年2月也曾购买过台积电，但本次<strong>购买规模创下去年6月18日以来最大</strong>，相当于截至3月底Ark资产管理公司所持台积电股份的87%。</p><h2 id=\"id_198392582\" style=\"text-align: left;\">关税缓和、行业前景看好</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从消息面来看，“木头姐”此次增持背后正值中美关税降幅远超预期，市场情绪大大改善。此外，特朗普与中东三国签署的一系列人工智能协议，也有利于台积电的业务前景，因为其实英伟达的重要供应商。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从市场走势来看，“木头姐”的这一转变似乎已得到市场验证。从今年1月峰值到4月低位，台积电最多跌去37%，目前已经扳回一半以上的跌幅。分析师预测，未来12个月台积电股价还有约11%的上涨空间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a4d8ca578cbd8b6dc1aeaafd75d0df\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">台积电5月9日公布的业绩报告显示，4月销售额3495.7亿元新台币，环比增加22.2％，同比增长48.1%，远超分析师预期的38%，较上个月46.5%的同比增速有所加快。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻此前提及，Meta和微软两家公司的资本支出显示出对AI产品的需求依旧旺盛，印证了该公司的光明前景，摩根士丹利对台积电股票评级为增持。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据介绍，虽然“木头姐”以对颠覆性技术的激进押注而广为人知，但她的旗舰基金近年来表现不佳。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管在截至2024年的两年间上涨了82%，但ARK Innovation ETF仍较其峰值下跌约63%，并在过去五年的大部分时间里表现落后于纳斯达克综合指数。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析认为，此次大规模买入台积电，可能是“木头姐”试图通过押注AI供应链核心企业，在当前市场环境下重振基金业绩的战略举措。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在“木头姐”被曝出大举买入台积电之前，日前公布的13F报告显示，华尔街大佬一季度也买入了台积电。其中：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街传奇投资者、有“史上最伟大的赚钱机器”之称的斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller）一季度大幅增持了台积电的股票，增加了49.13万股，使总持股量达到59.88万股，增幅高达456.93%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">段永平管理的HH&amp;H International Investment一季度新建仓台积电，买入27.18万股，持仓市值4511.7万美元，占比为0.38%。</p></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>重新看好芯片？木头姐大举加仓“台积电”，规模创近一年之最</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n重新看好芯片？木头姐大举加仓“台积电”，规模创近一年之最\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-05-20 15:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747439><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“木头姐”旗下基金周一买入近20万份台积电ADR，购买规模创下去年6月18日以来最大，这也是自去年三季度以来，“木头姐”从主要卖出台积电转为显著买入的最明显信号。态度大反转！“木头姐”大举买入台积电。5月20日，据报道，“木头姐”Cathie Wood近一年来首次大规模买入台积电。这是自去年三季度以来，“木头姐”从主要卖出台积电转为显著买入的最明显信号。数据显示，“木头姐”旗下的旗舰基金Ark ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb0479ff67cd3a760cdce353bcb60ed","relate_stocks":{"IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1989764748.USD":"东方汇理环球颠覆性机遇A2 Acc","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU1868837565.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"1\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ99366536.SGD":"United Global Innovation A Acc SGD-H","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","LU1623119135.USD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity R-NPF/A USD","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0488056044.USD":"Allianz Asian Multi Income Plus Cl AM DIS USD","BK4526":"热门中概股","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) 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ma","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a8c8e639462c26e5e861286d29fe","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4200113465864552","authorIdStr":"4200113465864552"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最近中概整体表现优异，背后是稳定的业绩支撑！","listText":"最近中概整体表现优异，背后是稳定的业绩支撑！","text":"最近中概整体表现优异，背后是稳定的业绩支撑！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/424758973747904","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":340,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":424758919233664,"gmtCreate":1744710056312,"gmtModify":1744710057899,"author":{"id":"4200113465864552","authorId":"4200113465864552","name":"peter ma","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a8c8e639462c26e5e861286d29fe","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4200113465864552","authorIdStr":"4200113465864552"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中国茶饮类产品正在走向全球，期待好表现！","listText":"中国茶饮类产品正在走向全球，期待好表现！","text":"中国茶饮类产品正在走向全球，期待好表现！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/424758919233664","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":439,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":424695728877944,"gmtCreate":1744694695450,"gmtModify":1744694697489,"author":{"id":"4200113465864552","authorId":"4200113465864552","name":"peter ma","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a8c8e639462c26e5e861286d29fe","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4200113465864552","authorIdStr":"4200113465864552"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美国这几百年就出这一个奇葩，忍忍就过去了","listText":"美国这几百年就出这一个奇葩，忍忍就过去了","text":"美国这几百年就出这一个奇葩，忍忍就过去了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/424695728877944","repostId":"2527376131","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2527376131","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1744668900,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2527376131?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-04-15 06:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“豁免”无效，关税“横跳”，苹果和英伟达悬着的心，怎么落下来？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2527376131","media":"极客公园","summary":"之后，美国关税政策再次横跳，包括部分国家暂缓 90 天实施，苹果股价随大盘在 4 月 9 日大幅反弹 15.3%。然而，随着市场意识到这些豁免可能是暂时的，苹果股价在随后的交易日再次下跌。截至近日，苹果市值蒸发了约五分之一。但如果豁免无法维持，或者关税战无法降温，行业可能还将迎来更多动荡。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>不要看一个人是怎么说的，要看他是怎么做的。</p></blockquote><p>上周五，美国海关发布了更新税则，豁免了包括电脑、智能手机、半导体等部分产品的「对等关税」。</p><p>一大批消费电子、芯片公司顿时松了口气，尤其是苹果、戴尔、惠普、三星、联想、AMD、英伟达等厂商，以及相关供应链企业，似乎一夜之间「脱险」了。</p><p>然而，美国总统特朗普周末在社交媒体发文称，<strong>豁免的电子产品只是被「挪到了另一个关税桶里」，痛斥各家媒体对关税豁免的形容是「Fake News」</strong>。</p><p>美国商务部长也称一些电子产品可能单独征收关税。特朗普可能将于美国时间周一更新其政府对半导体等产品的关税态度。</p><p>关税政策反复横跳之下，对于硅谷、乃至全球的科技公司的影响是什么？而在「关税闹剧」背后，美监管层又隐藏着哪些「私心」？</p><p><strong><em>01</em></strong></p><p><strong>苹果逃过一劫，了吗？</strong></p><p>4 月初特朗普抛出关税炸弹以来，科技公司的股价坐了一趟过山车。</p><p>其中，苹果的待遇最为显著。其股价自 4 月 2 日起在四个交易日内大跌 23%，市值蒸发超过 7700 亿美元，创下自 2000 年以来最严重的四日跌幅。巴菲特去年减持苹果的操作，也被人们翻出来感叹真有「先见之明」。</p><p>之后，美国关税政策再次横跳，包括部分国家暂缓 90 天实施，苹果股价随大盘在 4 月 9 日大幅反弹 15.3%。然而，随着市场意识到这些豁免可能是暂时的，苹果股价在随后的交易日再次下跌。</p><p>截至近日，<strong>苹果市值蒸发了约五分之一</strong>。</p><p>特朗普政府对外声称「关税政策」的明确意图，是让制造业务回流美国。白宫发言人在一份声明中称，美国不能依赖外国制造半导体、芯片、智能手机和笔记本电脑等关键技术产品，特朗普已从苹果和英伟达等公司争取到数万亿美元的美国投资。</p><p>但市场普遍认为，尽管苹果在内的公司努力将部分生产转移至其他地区，但短期内想要摆脱对中国供应链的依赖难度极大。</p><p>蒂姆·库克曾经提到，中国拥有大量熟练的技术工人和先进的制造能力，这是其他国家难以匹敌的。他举了这么一个例子：在美国，要是想找一屋子搞模具的工程师开会，可能人都找不齐，但在中国，这样的人「能装满好几个足球场」。</p><p>在他看来，中国的制造生态系统经过数十年的发展，形成了一个高效且规模庞大的供应链网络，这个网络「非常非常深」。</p><p>尽管苹果正在将部分生产转移到印度和越南等国家，以分散风险，但完全替代中国的制造能力在短期内几乎是不可能的。要在其他国家复制中国的制造生态系统，至少需要几十年的时间。</p><p>美国金融机构韦德布什证券分析师 Dan Ives 估计，即使仅仅将 10% 的供应链从亚洲转移到美国，也需要三年时间和 300 亿美元，而且整个过程会受到严重干扰。</p><p>与此同时，在制造业无法立即回流的情况下，更高的成本只能转嫁给消费者。目前，市场也普遍将豁免的动机解读为避免热门电子产品出现价格飙升。例如，有预测警告称，绝大部分 iPhone 都在中国组装，在全面征收关税的情况下，<strong>iPhone 的价格可能上涨 50% 至 80%，这意味着，每部手机的零售价在美国可能会增加 500 美元以上</strong>。</p><p>在关税豁免通知前，为了节省关税成本，苹果曾紧急从印度工厂空运 iPhone 回美国，自 3 月份以来，该公司已向美国空运了 600 吨 iPhone（约 150 万部）。</p><p>与此同时，包括惠普、戴尔在内的厂商决定暂停对美发货，任天堂推迟了 Switch 2 在美国的新品上线。</p><p>可以说，如果不考虑特朗普自身的性格与动机，美国政府官员的内部斗争、科技巨头们的游说施压、短期供应链中断警告、制造业回流的现实困境、通胀压力，加上眼前金融市场的各种危机，都在推动关税豁免。</p><p><strong><em>02</em></strong></p><p><strong>英伟达松了一口气</strong></p><p>半导体领域方面，如果真有持续的关税豁免，英伟达，高通、AMD 等也从中受益，因为他们在中国台湾或韩国生产的芯片可能在美国进口时豁免关税。</p><p>根据半导体行业协会（SIA）数据，全球半导体制造能力的约 75% 集中在中国和东亚地区。其中，世界上最先进的（10 纳米以下）半导体制造能力 100% 位于中国台湾（92%）和韩国（8%）。如果美国加征关税，短期内只能损人不利己。</p><p>「一种假设性的替代方案，即在每个地区建立完全自给自足的本地供应链，将需要至少 1 万亿美元的额外前期投资，并导致半导体价格整体上涨 35% 至 65%，最终使电子设备的消费者成本上升。」SIA 的一份报告分析称。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/953fb504227c8818a7330c1148cd51bc\" alt=\"半导体行业协会（SIA）报告｜图片来源：SIA\" title=\"半导体行业协会（SIA）报告｜图片来源：SIA\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"574\"/><span>半导体行业协会（SIA）报告｜图片来源：SIA</span></p><p>英特尔可能也会松口气，该公司正在美国亚利桑那州和俄亥俄州建设新的制造厂，如果一些进口工具（比如荷兰 ASML 的光刻机等）被征收更高的关税，英特尔雄心勃勃的晶圆厂扩建计划（已耗资数百亿美元）将付出更加昂贵的代价。</p><p>根据 ASML 的年度报告，2024 年，该公司约 16% 的销售额来自美国市场。该公司首席执行官 Christophe Fouquet 最近在荷兰一次行业活动中称，日益加剧的地缘政治紧张局势不利于行业合作。</p><p>位于华盛顿的半导体行业协会也指出，特朗普政府对半导体征收广泛的关税将适得其反，因为它会增加美国新建晶圆厂和开展研究的成本。</p><p>但对英特尔来说，目前鱼与熊掌可能不可兼得，因为真正的「美国制造」的芯片，意味着如果想进入中国市场，也要面临挑战。</p><p><strong><em>03</em></strong></p><p><strong>喘息只是暂时的？</strong></p><p>对席卷而来的部分产品关税豁免消息，资本市场大部分人持欢呼态度，并将此视为经济竞争稍微降级的信号。有些人甚至认为，如果没有豁免，一些大型科技公司将迎来「末日」。</p><p>但美国兰德智库机构人员 Gerard DiPippo 在社交平台中评论称，关税豁免主要是为了减轻对电子产品和消费者的影响。他认为这并非停火的信号。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a53c807ec7b0f27e251bb115598b57c1\" alt=\"兰德智库人员认为关税豁免主要为了减轻对消费者的影响｜图片来源：X\" title=\"兰德智库人员认为关税豁免主要为了减轻对消费者的影响｜图片来源：X\" tg-width=\"938\" tg-height=\"1060\"/><span>兰德智库人员认为关税豁免主要为了减轻对消费者的影响｜图片来源：X</span></p><p>而且，就在科技公司和相关投资者以为脱险时，事情在周末又发生了一些变化。</p><p>特朗普周末对媒体称，对智能手机和电脑的关税豁免只是「暂时的」，他将于周一更新其政府对半导体关税的态度。</p><p>「周五并没有宣布什么关税『豁免』」「这些电子产品只是被归类到了另一个关税分类『桶』里」「假新闻媒体明知道这一点，却拒绝报道真相。」特朗普在社交媒体周末发文如此怒斥道。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b400f552cb994bc9ff80d581cbfcf04c\" alt=\"特朗普称关税「豁免」是假新闻｜图片来源：特朗普社交媒体\" title=\"特朗普称关税「豁免」是假新闻｜图片来源：特朗普社交媒体\" tg-width=\"619\" tg-height=\"684\"/><span>特朗普称关税「豁免」是假新闻｜图片来源：特朗普社交媒体</span></p><p>「我们正在对半导体以及整个电子供应链展开即将启动的国家安全关税调查。」特朗普称，「我们必须在美国本土制造产品」。</p><p>美国商务部长卢特尼克也在周末称，特朗普将在一到两个月内对智能手机、电脑及其他电子产品实施「特别定向」的关税，同时针对半导体行业实施行业性关税。这些新关税将不属于特朗普此前提出的「对等关税」体系。</p><p>由于关税政策反复横跳，美国一金融机构创始人发文吐槽，「今年最大的反弹将在卢特尼克被解雇的那天到来。我建议政府弄清楚谁在控制信息，无论是什么，因为政策每天都在变化。美国企业无法在这种不断的反复中规划或投资。」</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e3f144c90f755bf905b2f23fbb9b83a\" alt=\"美国关税反对声｜图片来源：X\" title=\"美国关税反对声｜图片来源：X\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"440\"/><span>美国关税反对声｜图片来源：X</span></p><p>目前，部分产品「关税豁免」避免了一场迫在眉睫的危机，苹果、果链相关企业、消费电子公司、半导体公司估值获得部分修复，但这是否标志着关税大战的开始，还是仅仅是暂时的休息，还有待观察。</p><p>从智能手机、电脑到芯片，全球供应链上的相关企业正借此喘息，有人将此视为补充公司库存、调整策略的窗口。但如果豁免无法维持，或者关税战无法降温，行业可能还将迎来更多动荡。不论是美国大型科技公司，还是亚洲工厂生产线上的员工，还是全球消费者，都可能承担代价。</p><p>科技公司们短期内只能期待，如果关税不可避免，至少接下来幅度小一些。</p></body></html>","source":"jkgy","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" 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display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“豁免”无效，关税“横跳”，苹果和英伟达悬着的心，怎么落下来？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-04-15 06:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Xc3YwiPc-1e4O_8JxBhVUA><strong>极客公园</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>不要看一个人是怎么说的，要看他是怎么做的。上周五，美国海关发布了更新税则，豁免了包括电脑、智能手机、半导体等部分产品的「对等关税」。一大批消费电子、芯片公司顿时松了口气，尤其是苹果、戴尔、惠普、三星、联想、AMD、英伟达等厂商，以及相关供应链企业，似乎一夜之间「脱险」了。然而，美国总统特朗普周末在社交媒体发文称，豁免的电子产品只是被「挪到了另一个关税桶里」，痛斥各家媒体对关税豁免的形容是「Fake...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Xc3YwiPc-1e4O_8JxBhVUA\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1fc1f5e2fa377c378fa230c10e0849a2","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Xc3YwiPc-1e4O_8JxBhVUA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2527376131","content_text":"不要看一个人是怎么说的，要看他是怎么做的。上周五，美国海关发布了更新税则，豁免了包括电脑、智能手机、半导体等部分产品的「对等关税」。一大批消费电子、芯片公司顿时松了口气，尤其是苹果、戴尔、惠普、三星、联想、AMD、英伟达等厂商，以及相关供应链企业，似乎一夜之间「脱险」了。然而，美国总统特朗普周末在社交媒体发文称，豁免的电子产品只是被「挪到了另一个关税桶里」，痛斥各家媒体对关税豁免的形容是「Fake News」。美国商务部长也称一些电子产品可能单独征收关税。特朗普可能将于美国时间周一更新其政府对半导体等产品的关税态度。关税政策反复横跳之下，对于硅谷、乃至全球的科技公司的影响是什么？而在「关税闹剧」背后，美监管层又隐藏着哪些「私心」？01苹果逃过一劫，了吗？4 月初特朗普抛出关税炸弹以来，科技公司的股价坐了一趟过山车。其中，苹果的待遇最为显著。其股价自 4 月 2 日起在四个交易日内大跌 23%，市值蒸发超过 7700 亿美元，创下自 2000 年以来最严重的四日跌幅。巴菲特去年减持苹果的操作，也被人们翻出来感叹真有「先见之明」。之后，美国关税政策再次横跳，包括部分国家暂缓 90 天实施，苹果股价随大盘在 4 月 9 日大幅反弹 15.3%。然而，随着市场意识到这些豁免可能是暂时的，苹果股价在随后的交易日再次下跌。截至近日，苹果市值蒸发了约五分之一。特朗普政府对外声称「关税政策」的明确意图，是让制造业务回流美国。白宫发言人在一份声明中称，美国不能依赖外国制造半导体、芯片、智能手机和笔记本电脑等关键技术产品，特朗普已从苹果和英伟达等公司争取到数万亿美元的美国投资。但市场普遍认为，尽管苹果在内的公司努力将部分生产转移至其他地区，但短期内想要摆脱对中国供应链的依赖难度极大。蒂姆·库克曾经提到，中国拥有大量熟练的技术工人和先进的制造能力，这是其他国家难以匹敌的。他举了这么一个例子：在美国，要是想找一屋子搞模具的工程师开会，可能人都找不齐，但在中国，这样的人「能装满好几个足球场」。在他看来，中国的制造生态系统经过数十年的发展，形成了一个高效且规模庞大的供应链网络，这个网络「非常非常深」。尽管苹果正在将部分生产转移到印度和越南等国家，以分散风险，但完全替代中国的制造能力在短期内几乎是不可能的。要在其他国家复制中国的制造生态系统，至少需要几十年的时间。美国金融机构韦德布什证券分析师 Dan Ives 估计，即使仅仅将 10% 的供应链从亚洲转移到美国，也需要三年时间和 300 亿美元，而且整个过程会受到严重干扰。与此同时，在制造业无法立即回流的情况下，更高的成本只能转嫁给消费者。目前，市场也普遍将豁免的动机解读为避免热门电子产品出现价格飙升。例如，有预测警告称，绝大部分 iPhone 都在中国组装，在全面征收关税的情况下，iPhone 的价格可能上涨 50% 至 80%，这意味着，每部手机的零售价在美国可能会增加 500 美元以上。在关税豁免通知前，为了节省关税成本，苹果曾紧急从印度工厂空运 iPhone 回美国，自 3 月份以来，该公司已向美国空运了 600 吨 iPhone（约 150 万部）。与此同时，包括惠普、戴尔在内的厂商决定暂停对美发货，任天堂推迟了 Switch 2 在美国的新品上线。可以说，如果不考虑特朗普自身的性格与动机，美国政府官员的内部斗争、科技巨头们的游说施压、短期供应链中断警告、制造业回流的现实困境、通胀压力，加上眼前金融市场的各种危机，都在推动关税豁免。02英伟达松了一口气半导体领域方面，如果真有持续的关税豁免，英伟达，高通、AMD 等也从中受益，因为他们在中国台湾或韩国生产的芯片可能在美国进口时豁免关税。根据半导体行业协会（SIA）数据，全球半导体制造能力的约 75% 集中在中国和东亚地区。其中，世界上最先进的（10 纳米以下）半导体制造能力 100% 位于中国台湾（92%）和韩国（8%）。如果美国加征关税，短期内只能损人不利己。「一种假设性的替代方案，即在每个地区建立完全自给自足的本地供应链，将需要至少 1 万亿美元的额外前期投资，并导致半导体价格整体上涨 35% 至 65%，最终使电子设备的消费者成本上升。」SIA 的一份报告分析称。半导体行业协会（SIA）报告｜图片来源：SIA英特尔可能也会松口气，该公司正在美国亚利桑那州和俄亥俄州建设新的制造厂，如果一些进口工具（比如荷兰 ASML 的光刻机等）被征收更高的关税，英特尔雄心勃勃的晶圆厂扩建计划（已耗资数百亿美元）将付出更加昂贵的代价。根据 ASML 的年度报告，2024 年，该公司约 16% 的销售额来自美国市场。该公司首席执行官 Christophe Fouquet 最近在荷兰一次行业活动中称，日益加剧的地缘政治紧张局势不利于行业合作。位于华盛顿的半导体行业协会也指出，特朗普政府对半导体征收广泛的关税将适得其反，因为它会增加美国新建晶圆厂和开展研究的成本。但对英特尔来说，目前鱼与熊掌可能不可兼得，因为真正的「美国制造」的芯片，意味着如果想进入中国市场，也要面临挑战。03喘息只是暂时的？对席卷而来的部分产品关税豁免消息，资本市场大部分人持欢呼态度，并将此视为经济竞争稍微降级的信号。有些人甚至认为，如果没有豁免，一些大型科技公司将迎来「末日」。但美国兰德智库机构人员 Gerard DiPippo 在社交平台中评论称，关税豁免主要是为了减轻对电子产品和消费者的影响。他认为这并非停火的信号。兰德智库人员认为关税豁免主要为了减轻对消费者的影响｜图片来源：X而且，就在科技公司和相关投资者以为脱险时，事情在周末又发生了一些变化。特朗普周末对媒体称，对智能手机和电脑的关税豁免只是「暂时的」，他将于周一更新其政府对半导体关税的态度。「周五并没有宣布什么关税『豁免』」「这些电子产品只是被归类到了另一个关税分类『桶』里」「假新闻媒体明知道这一点，却拒绝报道真相。」特朗普在社交媒体周末发文如此怒斥道。特朗普称关税「豁免」是假新闻｜图片来源：特朗普社交媒体「我们正在对半导体以及整个电子供应链展开即将启动的国家安全关税调查。」特朗普称，「我们必须在美国本土制造产品」。美国商务部长卢特尼克也在周末称，特朗普将在一到两个月内对智能手机、电脑及其他电子产品实施「特别定向」的关税，同时针对半导体行业实施行业性关税。这些新关税将不属于特朗普此前提出的「对等关税」体系。由于关税政策反复横跳，美国一金融机构创始人发文吐槽，「今年最大的反弹将在卢特尼克被解雇的那天到来。我建议政府弄清楚谁在控制信息，无论是什么，因为政策每天都在变化。美国企业无法在这种不断的反复中规划或投资。」美国关税反对声｜图片来源：X目前，部分产品「关税豁免」避免了一场迫在眉睫的危机，苹果、果链相关企业、消费电子公司、半导体公司估值获得部分修复，但这是否标志着关税大战的开始，还是仅仅是暂时的休息，还有待观察。从智能手机、电脑到芯片，全球供应链上的相关企业正借此喘息，有人将此视为补充公司库存、调整策略的窗口。但如果豁免无法维持，或者关税战无法降温，行业可能还将迎来更多动荡。不论是美国大型科技公司，还是亚洲工厂生产线上的员工，还是全球消费者，都可能承担代价。科技公司们短期内只能期待，如果关税不可避免，至少接下来幅度小一些。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1.1,"NVDA":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":432182023651376,"gmtCreate":1746525802491,"gmtModify":1746525803698,"author":{"id":"4200113465864552","authorId":"4200113465864552","name":"peter 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ma","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3f4a8c8e639462c26e5e861286d29fe","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4200113465864552","authorIdStr":"4200113465864552"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"新闻一出，又到出货时间","listText":"新闻一出，又到出货时间","text":"新闻一出，又到出货时间","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/437111690686632","repostId":"2536660918","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2536660918","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1747725600,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2536660918?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-05-20 15:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"重新看好芯片？木头姐大举加仓“台积电”，规模创近一年之最","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2536660918","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“木头姐”旗下基金周一买入近20万份台积电ADR，购买规模创下去年6月18日以来最大，这也是自去年三季度以来，“木头姐”从主要卖出台积电转为显著买入的最明显信号。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>“木头姐”旗下基金周一买入近20万份台积电ADR，购买规模创下去年6月18日以来最大，这也是自去年三季度以来，“木头姐”从主要卖出台积电转为显著买入的最明显信号。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">态度大反转！“木头姐”大举买入台积电。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">5月20日，据报道，“木头姐”Cathie Wood近一年来首次大规模买入台积电。<strong>这是自去年三季度以来，“木头姐”从主要卖出台积电转为显著买入的最明显信号。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">数据显示，“木头姐”旗下的旗舰基金Ark Innovation ETF周一（5月19日）购买了123,587份台积电美国存托凭证(ADR)，同时Ark Next Generation Internet ETF买入了74,189份ADR。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报道指出，虽然Ark的基金在今年2月也曾购买过台积电，但本次<strong>购买规模创下去年6月18日以来最大</strong>，相当于截至3月底Ark资产管理公司所持台积电股份的87%。</p><h2 id=\"id_198392582\" style=\"text-align: left;\">关税缓和、行业前景看好</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从消息面来看，“木头姐”此次增持背后正值中美关税降幅远超预期，市场情绪大大改善。此外，特朗普与中东三国签署的一系列人工智能协议，也有利于台积电的业务前景，因为其实英伟达的重要供应商。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从市场走势来看，“木头姐”的这一转变似乎已得到市场验证。从今年1月峰值到4月低位，台积电最多跌去37%，目前已经扳回一半以上的跌幅。分析师预测，未来12个月台积电股价还有约11%的上涨空间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32a4d8ca578cbd8b6dc1aeaafd75d0df\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">台积电5月9日公布的业绩报告显示，4月销售额3495.7亿元新台币，环比增加22.2％，同比增长48.1%，远超分析师预期的38%，较上个月46.5%的同比增速有所加快。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街见闻此前提及，Meta和微软两家公司的资本支出显示出对AI产品的需求依旧旺盛，印证了该公司的光明前景，摩根士丹利对台积电股票评级为增持。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">据介绍，虽然“木头姐”以对颠覆性技术的激进押注而广为人知，但她的旗舰基金近年来表现不佳。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管在截至2024年的两年间上涨了82%，但ARK Innovation ETF仍较其峰值下跌约63%，并在过去五年的大部分时间里表现落后于纳斯达克综合指数。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析认为，此次大规模买入台积电，可能是“木头姐”试图通过押注AI供应链核心企业，在当前市场环境下重振基金业绩的战略举措。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在“木头姐”被曝出大举买入台积电之前，日前公布的13F报告显示，华尔街大佬一季度也买入了台积电。其中：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街传奇投资者、有“史上最伟大的赚钱机器”之称的斯坦利·德鲁肯米勒（Stanley Druckenmiller）一季度大幅增持了台积电的股票，增加了49.13万股，使总持股量达到59.88万股，增幅高达456.93%。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">段永平管理的HH&amp;H International Investment一季度新建仓台积电，买入27.18万股，持仓市值4511.7万美元，占比为0.38%。</p></blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>重新看好芯片？木头姐大举加仓“台积电”，规模创近一年之最</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n重新看好芯片？木头姐大举加仓“台积电”，规模创近一年之最\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-05-20 15:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747439><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>“木头姐”旗下基金周一买入近20万份台积电ADR，购买规模创下去年6月18日以来最大，这也是自去年三季度以来，“木头姐”从主要卖出台积电转为显著买入的最明显信号。态度大反转！“木头姐”大举买入台积电。5月20日，据报道，“木头姐”Cathie Wood近一年来首次大规模买入台积电。这是自去年三季度以来，“木头姐”从主要卖出台积电转为显著买入的最明显信号。数据显示，“木头姐”旗下的旗舰基金Ark ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3747439\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fb0479ff67cd3a760cdce353bcb60ed","relate_stocks":{"IE00B3M56506.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1989764748.USD":"东方汇理环球颠覆性机遇A2 Acc","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","LU1868837565.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES \"1\" (USD) ACC","SGXZ99366536.SGD":"United Global Innovation A Acc SGD-H","BK4527":"明星科技股","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK4543":"AI","LU1623119135.USD":"Natixis Mirova Global Sustainable Equity R-NPF/A USD","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU2360032135.SGD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0488056044.USD":"Allianz Asian Multi Income Plus Cl AM DIS USD","BK4526":"热门中概股","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) 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