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Wendy4569
2025-08-13
在所有利好出台的风口浪尖上IPO，闭眼冲呗
Wendy4569
2025-06-23
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2025-05-22
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期权女巫 | 美债暴跌！TLT超卖严重、抛售或近尾声，可用这两个期权策略布局买入机会
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2025-05-19
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Inc.(COIN)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/437822323982952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":437789227438184,"gmtCreate":1747906664241,"gmtModify":1747906882226,"author":{"id":"4207107118747312","authorId":"4207107118747312","name":"Wendy4569","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c192b6c57d9bca5149496cb47980b0a0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4207107118747312","idStr":"4207107118747312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/437789227438184","repostId":"1155619579","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155619579","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1747900419,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155619579?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-05-22 15:53","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"期权女巫 | 美债暴跌！TLT超卖严重、抛售或近尾声，可用这两个期权策略布局买入机会","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155619579","media":"期权女巫","summary":"$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares$ 超卖严重，猛烈抛售可能已接近尾声在周三交易中， $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares$进入超卖区，最低成交价为每股83.7601美元。RSI低于30通常被视为股票进入超卖状态。对于看涨的投资者来说，TLT的RSI读数意味着近期的猛烈抛售可能已接近尾声，可以开始寻找买入机会。若TLT跌破83美元，则按按行权价被动买入TLT100股。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>长期美债周三继续暴跌，跌至自2023年10月以来的最低水平，原因是债券拍卖需求疲软、以及市场对特朗普提议的减税计划所引发的财政赤字担忧加剧，推动收益率飙升至5%以上。</p><p>周三，30年期美国国债收益率飙升至5.08%，导致债券价格暴跌， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares</a> （代码：TLT）下跌1.71%，报收于83.97美元，创下自2023年10月以来的新低。</p><p>周三美国财政部进行了160亿美元的20年期国债拍卖。此次拍卖的收益率为5.047%，比拍卖前的“发行价”高出约1.2个基点，显示出需求疲软。</p><p>根据Exante Data的分析，周三的拍卖数据整体上表明市场需求较弱：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>投标倍数（bid-to-cover ratio）为2.46</strong>，略高于过去50次拍卖的最低四分位数，但远低于历史中位数，反映出市场整体兴趣不足；</p></li><li><p><strong>一级交易商</strong>（必须接盘未售出部分的机构）承接了16.9%的发行，接近历史区间上端，表明其他买方群体出手不积极；</p></li><li><p><strong>直接投标人</strong>（如共同基金和对冲基金）仅占14.1%，远低于他们的正常份额；</p></li><li><p>唯一亮点来自<strong>间接投标人</strong>（主要是外国投资者），他们吸收了69%的发行量，高于历史中位水平，表明全球买家依旧活跃，而本土需求则显现疲态。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_4167759579\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares</a> （TLT）超卖严重，猛烈抛售可能已接近尾声</h2><p>在周三交易中， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares</a>进入超卖区，最低成交价为每股83.7601美元。</p><p>若使用相对强弱指数（RSI）判断是否超卖，RSI是一种衡量市场动量的技术分析工具，范围从0到100。RSI低于30通常被视为股票进入超卖状态。</p><p>目前，<strong>TLT的RSI为28.5</strong>，相比之下，标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）的RSI为63.8。对于看涨的投资者来说，TLT的RSI读数意味着近期的猛烈抛售可能已接近尾声，可以开始寻找买入机会。</p><p>从一年走势图来看，<strong>TLT的52周最低点为83.7601美元，最高点为101.64美元</strong>，当前交易价为83.97美元，日内跌幅约1.71%。</p><h2 id=\"id_4021032922\" style=\"text-align: start;\">使用期权策略寻找买入TLT的机会</h2><h3 id=\"id_4157715412\" style=\"text-align: start;\">策略一：卖出次月价外看跌期权 ：</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>合约选择</strong>：卖出一张2025年6月20日到期、行权价83美元的看跌期权</p></li></ul><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>关键参数</strong>：</p></li></ul><p>权利金收入：139美元</p><p>盈亏平衡点：83 + 1.39 = <strong>81.61美元</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20250620 83.0 PUT\" title=\"$TLT 20250620 83.0 PUT$ \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TLT 20250620 83.0 PUT$ </a></p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e337e4ece0b63c73485d1b3b2c7e139\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1409\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>核心逻辑</strong></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\">卖出看跌期权的核心在于<strong>收取权利金</strong>，同时承担在到期日以行权价（83美元）买入标的资产（TLT）的义务。该策略适合以下两种情景：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>中性偏多预期及愿意以83美元建仓TLT</strong>：认为TLT价格不会跌破83美元（强支撑位），且可能反弹。<strong>若TLT跌破83美元，则按行权价被动买入TLT100股。</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>波动率交易</strong>：利用当前高隐含波动率（IV）获取溢价收入。</p></li></ol><h3 id=\"id_2097296586\" style=\"text-align: start;\">策略二：买入次月价外看涨期权</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>合约选择</strong>：买入一张2025年6月20日到期，行权价为85美元的看涨期权（轻度价外）</p></li><li><p><strong>关键参数</strong>：</p></li></ul><p>权利金成本：123美元</p><p>盈亏平衡点：85 + 1.23 = <strong>86.23美元（股价到期前涨至86.23美元以上策略开始盈利）</strong></p><p>Delta：0.411（股价每涨1美元，期权价值增0.41美元）</p><p>Theta：-0.027（每日时间价值损耗约0.027美元）</p><p>最大风险：权利金123美元（100%损失）</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20250620 85.0 CALL\" title=\"$TLT 20250620 85.0 CALL$ \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TLT 20250620 85.0 CALL$ </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/50999732a14ce8181f43a48bf62dbd6f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1418\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>适用场景：</strong></p></li></ul><p>强烈看涨TLT短期走势（如预期美联储降息、国债收益率下行）。</p><p>愿意承担高波动环境下的时间价值损耗风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong><em>免责声明</em></strong><em>：以上分析基于公开数据，不构成投资建议。期权交易风险较高，请根据自身风险承受能力谨慎决策。</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | 美债暴跌！TLT超卖严重、抛售或近尾声，可用这两个期权策略布局买入机会\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-05-22 15:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>长期美债周三继续暴跌，跌至自2023年10月以来的最低水平，原因是债券拍卖需求疲软、以及市场对特朗普提议的减税计划所引发的财政赤字担忧加剧，推动收益率飙升至5%以上。</p><p>周三，30年期美国国债收益率飙升至5.08%，导致债券价格暴跌， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares</a> （代码：TLT）下跌1.71%，报收于83.97美元，创下自2023年10月以来的新低。</p><p>周三美国财政部进行了160亿美元的20年期国债拍卖。此次拍卖的收益率为5.047%，比拍卖前的“发行价”高出约1.2个基点，显示出需求疲软。</p><p>根据Exante Data的分析，周三的拍卖数据整体上表明市场需求较弱：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>投标倍数（bid-to-cover ratio）为2.46</strong>，略高于过去50次拍卖的最低四分位数，但远低于历史中位数，反映出市场整体兴趣不足；</p></li><li><p><strong>一级交易商</strong>（必须接盘未售出部分的机构）承接了16.9%的发行，接近历史区间上端，表明其他买方群体出手不积极；</p></li><li><p><strong>直接投标人</strong>（如共同基金和对冲基金）仅占14.1%，远低于他们的正常份额；</p></li><li><p>唯一亮点来自<strong>间接投标人</strong>（主要是外国投资者），他们吸收了69%的发行量，高于历史中位水平，表明全球买家依旧活跃，而本土需求则显现疲态。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_4167759579\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares</a> （TLT）超卖严重，猛烈抛售可能已接近尾声</h2><p>在周三交易中， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares</a>进入超卖区，最低成交价为每股83.7601美元。</p><p>若使用相对强弱指数（RSI）判断是否超卖，RSI是一种衡量市场动量的技术分析工具，范围从0到100。RSI低于30通常被视为股票进入超卖状态。</p><p>目前，<strong>TLT的RSI为28.5</strong>，相比之下，标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）的RSI为63.8。对于看涨的投资者来说，TLT的RSI读数意味着近期的猛烈抛售可能已接近尾声，可以开始寻找买入机会。</p><p>从一年走势图来看，<strong>TLT的52周最低点为83.7601美元，最高点为101.64美元</strong>，当前交易价为83.97美元，日内跌幅约1.71%。</p><h2 id=\"id_4021032922\" style=\"text-align: start;\">使用期权策略寻找买入TLT的机会</h2><h3 id=\"id_4157715412\" style=\"text-align: start;\">策略一：卖出次月价外看跌期权 ：</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>合约选择</strong>：卖出一张2025年6月20日到期、行权价83美元的看跌期权</p></li></ul><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>关键参数</strong>：</p></li></ul><p>权利金收入：139美元</p><p>盈亏平衡点：83 + 1.39 = <strong>81.61美元</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20250620 83.0 PUT\" title=\"$TLT 20250620 83.0 PUT$ \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TLT 20250620 83.0 PUT$ </a></p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e337e4ece0b63c73485d1b3b2c7e139\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1409\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>核心逻辑</strong></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\">卖出看跌期权的核心在于<strong>收取权利金</strong>，同时承担在到期日以行权价（83美元）买入标的资产（TLT）的义务。该策略适合以下两种情景：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>中性偏多预期及愿意以83美元建仓TLT</strong>：认为TLT价格不会跌破83美元（强支撑位），且可能反弹。<strong>若TLT跌破83美元，则按行权价被动买入TLT100股。</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>波动率交易</strong>：利用当前高隐含波动率（IV）获取溢价收入。</p></li></ol><h3 id=\"id_2097296586\" style=\"text-align: start;\">策略二：买入次月价外看涨期权</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>合约选择</strong>：买入一张2025年6月20日到期，行权价为85美元的看涨期权（轻度价外）</p></li><li><p><strong>关键参数</strong>：</p></li></ul><p>权利金成本：123美元</p><p>盈亏平衡点：85 + 1.23 = <strong>86.23美元（股价到期前涨至86.23美元以上策略开始盈利）</strong></p><p>Delta：0.411（股价每涨1美元，期权价值增0.41美元）</p><p>Theta：-0.027（每日时间价值损耗约0.027美元）</p><p>最大风险：权利金123美元（100%损失）</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20250620 85.0 CALL\" title=\"$TLT 20250620 85.0 CALL$ \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TLT 20250620 85.0 CALL$ </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/50999732a14ce8181f43a48bf62dbd6f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1418\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>适用场景：</strong></p></li></ul><p>强烈看涨TLT短期走势（如预期美联储降息、国债收益率下行）。</p><p>愿意承担高波动环境下的时间价值损耗风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong><em>免责声明</em></strong><em>：以上分析基于公开数据，不构成投资建议。期权交易风险较高，请根据自身风险承受能力谨慎决策。</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c44b165f8cc495350b72d62199274ead","relate_stocks":{"TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155619579","content_text":"长期美债周三继续暴跌，跌至自2023年10月以来的最低水平，原因是债券拍卖需求疲软、以及市场对特朗普提议的减税计划所引发的财政赤字担忧加剧，推动收益率飙升至5%以上。周三，30年期美国国债收益率飙升至5.08%，导致债券价格暴跌， 20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares （代码：TLT）下跌1.71%，报收于83.97美元，创下自2023年10月以来的新低。周三美国财政部进行了160亿美元的20年期国债拍卖。此次拍卖的收益率为5.047%，比拍卖前的“发行价”高出约1.2个基点，显示出需求疲软。根据Exante Data的分析，周三的拍卖数据整体上表明市场需求较弱：投标倍数（bid-to-cover ratio）为2.46，略高于过去50次拍卖的最低四分位数，但远低于历史中位数，反映出市场整体兴趣不足；一级交易商（必须接盘未售出部分的机构）承接了16.9%的发行，接近历史区间上端，表明其他买方群体出手不积极；直接投标人（如共同基金和对冲基金）仅占14.1%，远低于他们的正常份额；唯一亮点来自间接投标人（主要是外国投资者），他们吸收了69%的发行量，高于历史中位水平，表明全球买家依旧活跃，而本土需求则显现疲态。20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares （TLT）超卖严重，猛烈抛售可能已接近尾声在周三交易中， 20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares进入超卖区，最低成交价为每股83.7601美元。若使用相对强弱指数（RSI）判断是否超卖，RSI是一种衡量市场动量的技术分析工具，范围从0到100。RSI低于30通常被视为股票进入超卖状态。目前，TLT的RSI为28.5，相比之下，标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）的RSI为63.8。对于看涨的投资者来说，TLT的RSI读数意味着近期的猛烈抛售可能已接近尾声，可以开始寻找买入机会。从一年走势图来看，TLT的52周最低点为83.7601美元，最高点为101.64美元，当前交易价为83.97美元，日内跌幅约1.71%。使用期权策略寻找买入TLT的机会策略一：卖出次月价外看跌期权 ：合约选择：卖出一张2025年6月20日到期、行权价83美元的看跌期权关键参数：权利金收入：139美元盈亏平衡点：83 + 1.39 = 81.61美元$TLT 20250620 83.0 PUT$ 核心逻辑卖出看跌期权的核心在于收取权利金，同时承担在到期日以行权价（83美元）买入标的资产（TLT）的义务。该策略适合以下两种情景：中性偏多预期及愿意以83美元建仓TLT：认为TLT价格不会跌破83美元（强支撑位），且可能反弹。若TLT跌破83美元，则按行权价被动买入TLT100股。波动率交易：利用当前高隐含波动率（IV）获取溢价收入。策略二：买入次月价外看涨期权合约选择：买入一张2025年6月20日到期，行权价为85美元的看涨期权（轻度价外）关键参数：权利金成本：123美元盈亏平衡点：85 + 1.23 = 86.23美元（股价到期前涨至86.23美元以上策略开始盈利）Delta：0.411（股价每涨1美元，期权价值增0.41美元）Theta：-0.027（每日时间价值损耗约0.027美元）最大风险：权利金123美元（100%损失）$TLT 20250620 85.0 CALL$ 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Inc.(COIN)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/437822323982952","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":931,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":437789227438184,"gmtCreate":1747906664241,"gmtModify":1747906882226,"author":{"id":"4207107118747312","authorId":"4207107118747312","name":"Wendy4569","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c192b6c57d9bca5149496cb47980b0a0","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4207107118747312","authorIdStr":"4207107118747312"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","listText":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","text":"说说你对这篇新闻的看法...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/437789227438184","repostId":"1155619579","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1155619579","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"期权策略分享","home_visible":1,"media_name":"期权女巫","id":"1020040791","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89"},"pubTimestamp":1747900419,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155619579?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-05-22 15:53","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"期权女巫 | 美债暴跌！TLT超卖严重、抛售或近尾声，可用这两个期权策略布局买入机会","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155619579","media":"期权女巫","summary":"$20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares$ 超卖严重，猛烈抛售可能已接近尾声在周三交易中， $20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares$进入超卖区，最低成交价为每股83.7601美元。RSI低于30通常被视为股票进入超卖状态。对于看涨的投资者来说，TLT的RSI读数意味着近期的猛烈抛售可能已接近尾声，可以开始寻找买入机会。若TLT跌破83美元，则按按行权价被动买入TLT100股。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>长期美债周三继续暴跌，跌至自2023年10月以来的最低水平，原因是债券拍卖需求疲软、以及市场对特朗普提议的减税计划所引发的财政赤字担忧加剧，推动收益率飙升至5%以上。</p><p>周三，30年期美国国债收益率飙升至5.08%，导致债券价格暴跌， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares</a> （代码：TLT）下跌1.71%，报收于83.97美元，创下自2023年10月以来的新低。</p><p>周三美国财政部进行了160亿美元的20年期国债拍卖。此次拍卖的收益率为5.047%，比拍卖前的“发行价”高出约1.2个基点，显示出需求疲软。</p><p>根据Exante Data的分析，周三的拍卖数据整体上表明市场需求较弱：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>投标倍数（bid-to-cover ratio）为2.46</strong>，略高于过去50次拍卖的最低四分位数，但远低于历史中位数，反映出市场整体兴趣不足；</p></li><li><p><strong>一级交易商</strong>（必须接盘未售出部分的机构）承接了16.9%的发行，接近历史区间上端，表明其他买方群体出手不积极；</p></li><li><p><strong>直接投标人</strong>（如共同基金和对冲基金）仅占14.1%，远低于他们的正常份额；</p></li><li><p>唯一亮点来自<strong>间接投标人</strong>（主要是外国投资者），他们吸收了69%的发行量，高于历史中位水平，表明全球买家依旧活跃，而本土需求则显现疲态。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_4167759579\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares</a> （TLT）超卖严重，猛烈抛售可能已接近尾声</h2><p>在周三交易中， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares</a>进入超卖区，最低成交价为每股83.7601美元。</p><p>若使用相对强弱指数（RSI）判断是否超卖，RSI是一种衡量市场动量的技术分析工具，范围从0到100。RSI低于30通常被视为股票进入超卖状态。</p><p>目前，<strong>TLT的RSI为28.5</strong>，相比之下，标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）的RSI为63.8。对于看涨的投资者来说，TLT的RSI读数意味着近期的猛烈抛售可能已接近尾声，可以开始寻找买入机会。</p><p>从一年走势图来看，<strong>TLT的52周最低点为83.7601美元，最高点为101.64美元</strong>，当前交易价为83.97美元，日内跌幅约1.71%。</p><h2 id=\"id_4021032922\" style=\"text-align: start;\">使用期权策略寻找买入TLT的机会</h2><h3 id=\"id_4157715412\" style=\"text-align: start;\">策略一：卖出次月价外看跌期权 ：</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>合约选择</strong>：卖出一张2025年6月20日到期、行权价83美元的看跌期权</p></li></ul><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>关键参数</strong>：</p></li></ul><p>权利金收入：139美元</p><p>盈亏平衡点：83 + 1.39 = <strong>81.61美元</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20250620 83.0 PUT\" title=\"$TLT 20250620 83.0 PUT$ \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TLT 20250620 83.0 PUT$ </a></p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e337e4ece0b63c73485d1b3b2c7e139\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1409\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>核心逻辑</strong></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\">卖出看跌期权的核心在于<strong>收取权利金</strong>，同时承担在到期日以行权价（83美元）买入标的资产（TLT）的义务。该策略适合以下两种情景：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>中性偏多预期及愿意以83美元建仓TLT</strong>：认为TLT价格不会跌破83美元（强支撑位），且可能反弹。<strong>若TLT跌破83美元，则按行权价被动买入TLT100股。</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>波动率交易</strong>：利用当前高隐含波动率（IV）获取溢价收入。</p></li></ol><h3 id=\"id_2097296586\" style=\"text-align: start;\">策略二：买入次月价外看涨期权</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>合约选择</strong>：买入一张2025年6月20日到期，行权价为85美元的看涨期权（轻度价外）</p></li><li><p><strong>关键参数</strong>：</p></li></ul><p>权利金成本：123美元</p><p>盈亏平衡点：85 + 1.23 = <strong>86.23美元（股价到期前涨至86.23美元以上策略开始盈利）</strong></p><p>Delta：0.411（股价每涨1美元，期权价值增0.41美元）</p><p>Theta：-0.027（每日时间价值损耗约0.027美元）</p><p>最大风险：权利金123美元（100%损失）</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20250620 85.0 CALL\" title=\"$TLT 20250620 85.0 CALL$ \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TLT 20250620 85.0 CALL$ </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/50999732a14ce8181f43a48bf62dbd6f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1418\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>适用场景：</strong></p></li></ul><p>强烈看涨TLT短期走势（如预期美联储降息、国债收益率下行）。</p><p>愿意承担高波动环境下的时间价值损耗风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong><em>免责声明</em></strong><em>：以上分析基于公开数据，不构成投资建议。期权交易风险较高，请根据自身风险承受能力谨慎决策。</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>期权女巫 | 美债暴跌！TLT超卖严重、抛售或近尾声，可用这两个期权策略布局买入机会</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n期权女巫 | 美债暴跌！TLT超卖严重、抛售或近尾声，可用这两个期权策略布局买入机会\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1020040791\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/7471350466f20d36ee3112d77c72cd89);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">期权女巫 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-05-22 15:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>长期美债周三继续暴跌，跌至自2023年10月以来的最低水平，原因是债券拍卖需求疲软、以及市场对特朗普提议的减税计划所引发的财政赤字担忧加剧，推动收益率飙升至5%以上。</p><p>周三，30年期美国国债收益率飙升至5.08%，导致债券价格暴跌， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares</a> （代码：TLT）下跌1.71%，报收于83.97美元，创下自2023年10月以来的新低。</p><p>周三美国财政部进行了160亿美元的20年期国债拍卖。此次拍卖的收益率为5.047%，比拍卖前的“发行价”高出约1.2个基点，显示出需求疲软。</p><p>根据Exante Data的分析，周三的拍卖数据整体上表明市场需求较弱：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>投标倍数（bid-to-cover ratio）为2.46</strong>，略高于过去50次拍卖的最低四分位数，但远低于历史中位数，反映出市场整体兴趣不足；</p></li><li><p><strong>一级交易商</strong>（必须接盘未售出部分的机构）承接了16.9%的发行，接近历史区间上端，表明其他买方群体出手不积极；</p></li><li><p><strong>直接投标人</strong>（如共同基金和对冲基金）仅占14.1%，远低于他们的正常份额；</p></li><li><p>唯一亮点来自<strong>间接投标人</strong>（主要是外国投资者），他们吸收了69%的发行量，高于历史中位水平，表明全球买家依旧活跃，而本土需求则显现疲态。</p></li></ul><h2 id=\"id_4167759579\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares</a> （TLT）超卖严重，猛烈抛售可能已接近尾声</h2><p>在周三交易中， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TLT\">20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares</a>进入超卖区，最低成交价为每股83.7601美元。</p><p>若使用相对强弱指数（RSI）判断是否超卖，RSI是一种衡量市场动量的技术分析工具，范围从0到100。RSI低于30通常被视为股票进入超卖状态。</p><p>目前，<strong>TLT的RSI为28.5</strong>，相比之下，标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）的RSI为63.8。对于看涨的投资者来说，TLT的RSI读数意味着近期的猛烈抛售可能已接近尾声，可以开始寻找买入机会。</p><p>从一年走势图来看，<strong>TLT的52周最低点为83.7601美元，最高点为101.64美元</strong>，当前交易价为83.97美元，日内跌幅约1.71%。</p><h2 id=\"id_4021032922\" style=\"text-align: start;\">使用期权策略寻找买入TLT的机会</h2><h3 id=\"id_4157715412\" style=\"text-align: start;\">策略一：卖出次月价外看跌期权 ：</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>合约选择</strong>：卖出一张2025年6月20日到期、行权价83美元的看跌期权</p></li></ul><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>关键参数</strong>：</p></li></ul><p>权利金收入：139美元</p><p>盈亏平衡点：83 + 1.39 = <strong>81.61美元</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20250620 83.0 PUT\" title=\"$TLT 20250620 83.0 PUT$ \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TLT 20250620 83.0 PUT$ </a></p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/2e337e4ece0b63c73485d1b3b2c7e139\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1409\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>核心逻辑</strong></p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: start;\">卖出看跌期权的核心在于<strong>收取权利金</strong>，同时承担在到期日以行权价（83美元）买入标的资产（TLT）的义务。该策略适合以下两种情景：</p><ol start=\"1\" style=\"\"><li><p><strong>中性偏多预期及愿意以83美元建仓TLT</strong>：认为TLT价格不会跌破83美元（强支撑位），且可能反弹。<strong>若TLT跌破83美元，则按行权价被动买入TLT100股。</strong></p></li><li><p><strong>波动率交易</strong>：利用当前高隐含波动率（IV）获取溢价收入。</p></li></ol><h3 id=\"id_2097296586\" style=\"text-align: start;\">策略二：买入次月价外看涨期权</h3><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>合约选择</strong>：买入一张2025年6月20日到期，行权价为85美元的看涨期权（轻度价外）</p></li><li><p><strong>关键参数</strong>：</p></li></ul><p>权利金成本：123美元</p><p>盈亏平衡点：85 + 1.23 = <strong>86.23美元（股价到期前涨至86.23美元以上策略开始盈利）</strong></p><p>Delta：0.411（股价每涨1美元，期权价值增0.41美元）</p><p>Theta：-0.027（每日时间价值损耗约0.027美元）</p><p>最大风险：权利金123美元（100%损失）</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TLT 20250620 85.0 CALL\" title=\"$TLT 20250620 85.0 CALL$ \" class=\"immutable-element\">$TLT 20250620 85.0 CALL$ </a></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/50999732a14ce8181f43a48bf62dbd6f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1170\" tg-height=\"1418\"/></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>适用场景：</strong></p></li></ul><p>强烈看涨TLT短期走势（如预期美联储降息、国债收益率下行）。</p><p>愿意承担高波动环境下的时间价值损耗风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\"><strong><em>免责声明</em></strong><em>：以上分析基于公开数据，不构成投资建议。期权交易风险较高，请根据自身风险承受能力谨慎决策。</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c44b165f8cc495350b72d62199274ead","relate_stocks":{"TLT":"20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155619579","content_text":"长期美债周三继续暴跌，跌至自2023年10月以来的最低水平，原因是债券拍卖需求疲软、以及市场对特朗普提议的减税计划所引发的财政赤字担忧加剧，推动收益率飙升至5%以上。周三，30年期美国国债收益率飙升至5.08%，导致债券价格暴跌， 20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares （代码：TLT）下跌1.71%，报收于83.97美元，创下自2023年10月以来的新低。周三美国财政部进行了160亿美元的20年期国债拍卖。此次拍卖的收益率为5.047%，比拍卖前的“发行价”高出约1.2个基点，显示出需求疲软。根据Exante Data的分析，周三的拍卖数据整体上表明市场需求较弱：投标倍数（bid-to-cover ratio）为2.46，略高于过去50次拍卖的最低四分位数，但远低于历史中位数，反映出市场整体兴趣不足；一级交易商（必须接盘未售出部分的机构）承接了16.9%的发行，接近历史区间上端，表明其他买方群体出手不积极；直接投标人（如共同基金和对冲基金）仅占14.1%，远低于他们的正常份额；唯一亮点来自间接投标人（主要是外国投资者），他们吸收了69%的发行量，高于历史中位水平，表明全球买家依旧活跃，而本土需求则显现疲态。20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares （TLT）超卖严重，猛烈抛售可能已接近尾声在周三交易中， 20+年以上美国国债ETF-iShares进入超卖区，最低成交价为每股83.7601美元。若使用相对强弱指数（RSI）判断是否超卖，RSI是一种衡量市场动量的技术分析工具，范围从0到100。RSI低于30通常被视为股票进入超卖状态。目前，TLT的RSI为28.5，相比之下，标准普尔500指数（S&P 500）的RSI为63.8。对于看涨的投资者来说，TLT的RSI读数意味着近期的猛烈抛售可能已接近尾声，可以开始寻找买入机会。从一年走势图来看，TLT的52周最低点为83.7601美元，最高点为101.64美元，当前交易价为83.97美元，日内跌幅约1.71%。使用期权策略寻找买入TLT的机会策略一：卖出次月价外看跌期权 ：合约选择：卖出一张2025年6月20日到期、行权价83美元的看跌期权关键参数：权利金收入：139美元盈亏平衡点：83 + 1.39 = 81.61美元$TLT 20250620 83.0 PUT$ 核心逻辑卖出看跌期权的核心在于收取权利金，同时承担在到期日以行权价（83美元）买入标的资产（TLT）的义务。该策略适合以下两种情景：中性偏多预期及愿意以83美元建仓TLT：认为TLT价格不会跌破83美元（强支撑位），且可能反弹。若TLT跌破83美元，则按行权价被动买入TLT100股。波动率交易：利用当前高隐含波动率（IV）获取溢价收入。策略二：买入次月价外看涨期权合约选择：买入一张2025年6月20日到期，行权价为85美元的看涨期权（轻度价外）关键参数：权利金成本：123美元盈亏平衡点：85 + 1.23 = 86.23美元（股价到期前涨至86.23美元以上策略开始盈利）Delta：0.411（股价每涨1美元，期权价值增0.41美元）Theta：-0.027（每日时间价值损耗约0.027美元）最大风险：权利金123美元（100%损失）$TLT 20250620 85.0 CALL$ 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